JUNE 21/GOLD RISES BY $2.90 UP TO $1396.00/HOWEVER SILVER SLIPS BY 22 CENTS DOWN TO $15.29MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

 

 

GOLD: $1396.00  UP $2.90 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $15,29 DOWN 22 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)//

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1399.50

 

silver:  $15.34

 

 

YOUR DATA…

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING  28/86

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JUNE 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,392.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/20/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 06/24/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 6
661 C JP MORGAN 28
737 C ADVANTAGE 45 52
905 C ADM 41
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 86 86
MONTH TO DATE: 2,304

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 86 NOTICE(S) FOR 8600 OZ (0.2674 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  2304 NOTICES FOR 230400 OZ  (7.166 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JUNE

 

 

35 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 175,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 426 for   2,130,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 9769 UP 252 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 9891 UP 369

 

 

 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL A CONSIDERABLE  SIZED 2848 CONTRACTS FROM 239,505 DOWN TO 236,657 DESPITE THE HUGE 53 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

0 FOR JUNE, 4192 FOR JULY. 0 FOR AUGUST, 66 FOR SEPT, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  4258 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 4258 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 4258 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 21.290 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 53 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.635 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING AT THE SILVER COMEX LAST NIGHT..AND MINOR SPREADING ACCUMULATION.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JUNE:

39,592 CONTRACTS (FOR 15 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 39,592 CONTRACTS) OR 197.96MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2639 CONTRACTS OR 13.19 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JUNE:  197.96 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 28.28% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1068.71   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2848, DESPITE THE 53 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 4258 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS WILL RESUME THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES FOR SILVER ONCE THE JUNE CONTRACT COMMENCES IN EARNEST….

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED: 1410 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 4258 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 2848  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A  53 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.51 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.187 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 169% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 35 NOTICE(S) FOR 175,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.635 MILLION OZ//
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING:  WE NO DOUBT HAD SOME ACTIVITY OF SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN SILVER TODAY AS TOTAL OI ROSE SHARPLY WITH THE STRONG GAIN OF 53 CENTS. 

 

 

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCHED TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CRIMINAL 32,725 CONTRACTS, TO 571,676 ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE $47.95 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS STOPPED, THESE SPREADERS HAVE ALREADY MORPHED INTO SILVER AND THEY ARE INTO THE ACCUMULATION PHASE OF THEIR OPERATION. THUS THE GAIN IN OI FOR GOLD IS REAL AS INVESTORS ARE MASSIVELY POURING INTO THE GOLD SECTOR  

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 22,225 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS, AUGUST 2019: 22,225 CONTRACTS, DEC>  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 582,121.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 54,950 CONTRACTS: 32,725 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 22,225 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 54,950 CONTRACTS OR 5,495,000 OZ OR 170,92 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A  GAIN OF $47.95 IN GOLD TRADING.AND WITH THAT HUGE GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 170.92  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER.

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE : 149,162 CONTRACTS OR 14,916,200 oz OR 463.95 TONNES (15 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9944 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 463.95 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 463.95/3550 x 100% TONNES =13.06% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     2,715.42 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 32,725 WITH THE PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK ON YESTERDAY($47.95)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 22,225 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 22,225 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 54,950 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

22,225 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 32,725 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 170.92 TONNES). ..AND THIS INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $47.95 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE  HAD ZERO PRESENCE OF SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN GOLD  ///TODAY/

 

 

 

we had:  86 notice(s) filed upon for 8,600 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY//

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY:

 

NO CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO SILVER INVENTORY  AT THE SILVER SLV:

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2848 CONTRACTS from 239,505 DOWN TO 236,657 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER AND STOPPED THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS IN GOLD

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 4192 CONTRACTS FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 66  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4258 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2848  CONTRACTS TO THE 4258 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A  GOOD GAIN OF 1410 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS BUT ALSO SOME LIQUIDATION OF COMEX CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7.05MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY AND NOW 2.635 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE.

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 53 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 4258 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.86 POINTS OR 0.50%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 76.72 POINTS OR 0.27%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 204.22 POINTS OR 0.25%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .50%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8694 /Oil UP TO 57.82 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.36 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8694 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8759 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 China/Chinese affairs

 

 

i)China/

Shibor was set at a 10 yr low of 1.11% as rates all over the globe are falling.  It seems that China’s interbank market was freezing up in the aftermath of Baoshang Bank collapse.  China’s economy is faltering and that is the reason they are lowering rates trying to increase liquidity.

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

 

i)IRAN/USA

Trump ordered a military strike on Iran but then sent a message to the Ayatollah giving them one last chance

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)Same topic as above

(courtesy Daily Mail)

iii)This should make Trump warm and fuzzy: Iran stated that it refrained from shooting down a USA plan with 35 military people on board

(courtesy zerohedge)

iv) STRAITS OF HORMUZ/GULF OF OMAN/FAA/

The FAA issues a no fly zone over the Straits of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman.   Is the uSA preparing for an attack and that is the reason that they do not want any civilian casualties.
(courtesy zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Total global negative yield debt soars by .7 trillion dollars yesterday to a record $13 trillion as deflation grips the globe

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

i)VENEZUELA/

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)We have long suspected the true reason for central bank gold sales during the first few years of the new millenium.  Basically bullion banks could not retrieve gold to pay back leases undertaken by them.  Other reasons for the gold sales was to prevent other assets from faltering

(courtesy Ronan MANLY/gata)

ii)I am sure that Trudeau is very excited about this:  China’s no 2 mining company and 100% state owned is contemplating a takeover of Canada’s Iamgold.

( Bloomberg)

iii) I discuss with Chris Marcus the machinations inside the Comex

( Chris Marcus/GATA/Harvey Organ)

iv)James Turk et al discuss what a short squeeze on gold looks like

(courtesy Kingworldnews/GATA)

V)The King report discusses gold’s revolt over price suppression

(courtesy King Report/GATA)

vi)Gold breaks out: a technical analysis.

(courtesy Steve St Angelo/SRSRocco report)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

 

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

II)MARKET TRADING/USA

 

 

ii)Market data/USA

a)Not good: USA Mfg PMI plunges to a 10 yr low and not only that but the generally stronger service PMI has the hope sector, the lowest on record

( zerohedge)

b)Another sign of a contracting economy.  Homes sales activity is a strong component of GDP..Today existing home sales tumbles year over year for the 15th consecutive month

(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

SWAMP STORIES

Interesting:  Trump says that the Dept of Justice is investigating whether Obama tapped his phone

(courtesy zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
end
LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BYAN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 32,725 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 571,676 ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE RISE OF $47.95 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 22,225 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

0 FOR JUNE ’19: 0 CONTRACTS , AUG; 22,225 CONTRACTS: DEC: 0   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  22,225 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 54,950 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 22,225 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 32,725 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  54,950 CONTRACTS OR 5,495,000 OZ OR 170.92 TONNES.

 

We are now in the  active contract month of JUNE and here the open interest stands at 235 CONTRACTS as we LOST 63 contracts.  We had  85 notices filed yesterday so we  gained another of 22 contracts or 2,200 oz of gold that will stand for delivery as there appears to be some gold at the comex  as they will now try their luck on finding the fast vanishing supplies of physical gold over here.  The next contract month is the non active month of July and here the OI ROSE by 30 contracts UP to 1303 contracts.  The next big active month for deliverable gold is August and here the OI ROSE by a whopping 26,868 contracts UP to 425,515.   WE HAVE WITNESSED A HUGE CRIME SCENE WITH RESPECT TO BOTH GOLD AND SILVER TODAY AT THE COMEX.

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 86 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  8600 OZ. (0.2674 TONNES)

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2848 CONTRACTS FROM 239,505 DOWN TO 236,657 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED DESPITE A  53 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.  HERE WE HAVE 136 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A MONSTROUS GAIN OF 103 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 103 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 515,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL ATTEMPT TO STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

THE NEXT MONTH AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY.  HERE THE OI FELL BY 16,606 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 93,661. AS WE START TO GET READY FOR THE ACTIVE AND STRONG JULY SILVER DELIVERY MONTH.  WE GAINED 48 CONTRACTS OF OI FOR AUGUST TO STAND AT 913. THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 13,775 CONTRACTS UP TO 95,593 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 35 notice(s) filed for 175,000 OZ for the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 496,456  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  569,408  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JUNE/GOLD

June 21/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
5373 oz
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz  

nil

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
86 notice(s)
 8600 OZ
(0.2674 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
149 contracts
(14,900 oz)
0.4634 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2304 notices
230400 OZ
7.166 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into Everybody else: nil  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside/ NO amount  arrived   today

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i ) out of HSBC:  5373.958 oz

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 5,373.958   oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today

FOR THE JUNE 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 86 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 28 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2304) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JUNE. (235 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (86 x 100 oz per contract) equals 245,300 OZ OR 7.629 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (2304 x 100 oz)  + (235)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (86 x 100 oz )which equals 245,300 oz standing OR 7.629 TONNES in this  active delivery month of JUNE.

We GAINED 22  contracts or an additional 2200 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. Somebody was in need of physical gold badly on this side of the pond.

 

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 10.08 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 7.629 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  322,910.634 oz or  10.043 tonnes (we again had a small adjustment yesterday of gold leaving the dealer and entering the customer//
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,691,805.550 oz 239.24 tonnes

 

 

 

OF OPEN INTERESTS FOR THE UPCOMING JUNE 2019 CONTRACT VS JUNE 2018

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE INITIAL JUNE 2018 CONTRACT WE HAD A HUGE 32.152 TONNES STAND. (VS 7.629 TONNES TODAY/JUNE 2019)

HOWEVER BY MONTH’S END ONLY 21.56 TONNES EVENTUALLY STOOD AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.  AS YOU CAN SEE, THE CROOKS ARE FOLLOWING THE SAME FORMAT OF MORPHING VS LAST YEAR AS ONLY GOLD VAPOUR SEEMS TO BE PHYSICALLY PRESENT AT THE COMEX AND LONGS MUST TRY THEIR LUCK IN LONDON.

IN THE LAST 32 MONTHS 117 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF June

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
june 21 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 84,501.786 oz
Brinks
Delaware
HSBC

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
6942.400 oz
Brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)
35
CONTRACT(S)
(175,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
101 contracts
505,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 426 contracts

2,130,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into brinks:  6942.400 oz

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  6,042.400  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) out of Delaware  5960.366 oz

ii) Out of Brinks: 16,670.500 oz

iii) Out of HSBC:  61,870.920 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total 84,501.785  oz

 

we had 0 adjustments :

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  87.119 million

total dealer + customer silver:  304.604 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JUNE 2019. contract month is represented by 35 contract(s) FOR 175,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 424 x 5,000 oz = 2,130,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE. (136) and the number of notices served upon today (35 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JUNE/2019 contract month: 426(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE( 136) number of notices served upon today (35)x 5000 oz equals 2,630,000 oz of silver standing for the JN contract month.

WE GAINED 103 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 515,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.  IT SEEMS THAT SOMEBODY WAS BADLY IN NEED OF PHYSICAL SILVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 35 notice(s) filed for 175,000 OZfor the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  179,985 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 236,657 CONTRACTS..(we no doubt had considerable spreading activity as they are now starting to accumulate in silver)

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 236,657 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 1,118 million  OZ 169%% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.97% June 21/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.96% to NAV (june 21/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.97%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.69 TRADING 13.13/DISCOUNT 4.11

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD UP $ 2.90, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT: 764.10 TONNES

June 20/WITH GOLD UP $47.95, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONES

JUNE 18/JUNE 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

 

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 14/ WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

june 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.70 TONNES

JUNE 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.65 CENTS TODAY: A TINY CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .24 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.42 TONNES

june 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

jUNE 6/WITH GOLD UP  $8.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $6.00 TODAY/STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

JUNE 4/WITH GOLD UP 0.85 TODAY: A MONSTROUS PAPER GAIN OF 16.44 TONNES/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.65 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD UP $17.50 TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE, A DEPOSIT OF 2.35 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//

MAY 31/WITH GOLD UP $17.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES

MAY 30: WI6H GOLD UP $6.40 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES

MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES

MAY 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES

MAY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.81 TONNES

MAY 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY: A STRANGE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FORM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738,81 TONNES

MAY 22//WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: WE HAD A GOOD 1.52 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 739.69 TONNES

 

MAY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.65 TODAY: A SURPRISE 2.00 TONNES WERE ADDED  TO THE GLD GOLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.17 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 A HUGE 2.96 TONNE DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.17 TONNES

MAY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.50: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.23 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 15/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

MAY 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45 TODAY: STRANGE!! THE CROOKS DECIDED TO DEPOSIT A HUGE 3.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

 

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JUNE 21/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 764.10 tonnes

*IN LAST 615 TRADING DAYS: 169.66 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 515 TRADING DAYS: A NET 4.03TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 20/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 18 WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP XXX CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.413 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 11/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

june 7/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 12 CENTS, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

jUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 9 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZE DEPOSIT OF 630,087 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.396 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.434 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 4/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//

MAY 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 422,000 OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ/

May 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ///

MAY 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ/

MAY 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 22/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 311.616 MILLION OZ

MAY 21: WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ

MAY 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.185 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY VAULTS:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ//

MAY 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ//

MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV  INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.031 MILLION OZ//  THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ.

MAY 14/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

 

 

JUNE 21/2019:

 

Inventory 319.819 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.08/ and libor 6 month duration 2.22

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .14

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.97%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.16

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.19

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

If Gold Pulls Back, It Will Most Likely “Be Short and Shallow” – GoldCore

GoldCore Note

Gold prices surged to a new six-year high today after markets digested the U.S. Federal Reserve signalling a move to looser policies and other central banks including the ECB made similar dovish signals.

The Fed said it was ready to cut interest rates as soon as this July due to the very uncertain outlook and the slowing U.S. economy. This led to a sharp fall in the dollar and gold gaining 4% and breaking above the key $1,400 price level.

The economic recovery in the U.S. looks very ‘long in the tooth’ and the move to looser monetary policies by the Fed will further impact the dollar and should see higher gold prices in the coming months.

The very uncertain situation in the Middle East and the real risk of a military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran saw oil prices surge 6%. This will also support gold and means that any pullback will likely be short and shallow.

We are seeing a new sense of urgency from investors in recent days and an increase in safe haven buying due to concerns about the geopolitical and economic outlook.

News and Commentary

Gold Jumps Nearly 4% to Settle Near Five-year High in Reaction to Fed Decision

Gold Hits Near 6-year High After Fed Signals Rate Cut

Oil Racks Up More Gains on US-Iran Tensions, Gold Breaks $1,400

Gold Achieves Liftoff as Prices Rocket Toward $1,400 an Ounce

Gold Prices Jump About $80 This Month

Watch video here

If Gold Pulls Back, It Will “Most Likely Be Short and Shallow” – Goldcore

“A New Sense of Urgency is Being Seen From Investors in Recent Days” – Goldcore

Why Gold Prices Might Be Poised for a Big Move Higher

Currency War is the Next Phase of Global Conflict – AEP

$12 Trillion of Negative-yielding Bonds Are Sending a Clear Message of Distress

There’s Not Much the Fed Can Do to Address a Liquidity Crisis

Hedge-fund Boss Who Predicted the ‘87 Crash is Does Well From Timely Call Last Week to Buy Gold 

LBMA Gold Prices (AM/ PM Fix – USD, GBP & EUR)

20-Jun-19 1381.65 1379.50, 1086.25 1087.74 & 1222.90 1221.27
19-Jun-19 1342.40 1344.05, 1066.67 1066.64 & 1198.36 1199.43
18-Jun-19 1344.55 1341.35, 1073.22 1070.67 & 1201.89 1198.09
17-Jun-19 1333.20 1341.30, 1059.49 1065.13 & 1188.81 1193.09
14-Jun-19 1352.45 1351.25, 1069.79 1070.33 & 1200.03 1201.80
13-Jun-19 1335.80 1335.90, 1054.21 1052.69 & 1182.85 1184.81
12-Jun-19 1336.65 1332.35, 1049.27 1045.76 & 1179.99 1177.26
11-Jun-19 1322.65 1324.30, 1040.53 1041.30 & 1168.96 1170.42
10-Jun-19 1328.60 1328.60, 1046.94 1048.66 & 1175.41 1175.94
07-Jun-19 1334.30 1340.65, 1049.16 1052.14 & 1184.19 1184.60
06-Jun-19 1336.65 1335.50, 1053.15 1051.17 & 1189.62 1185.92

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

end

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

 

END

We have long suspected the true reason for central bank gold sales during the first few years of the new millenium.  Basically bullion banks could not retrieve gold to pay back leases undertaken by them.  Other reasons for the gold sales was to prevent other assets from faltering

(courtesy Ronan MANLY/gata)

Ronan Manly: What were the central bank gold agreements really about?

 Section: 

3:05p ET Thursday, June 20, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In a most important study, Bullion Star researcher Ronan Manly today lays out the evidence that the various central bank gold agreements of the last 20 years have been the mechanisms of hiding in plain sight central bank intervention in the gold market to restrain the monetary metal’s price and redistribute gold reserves to central banks that had a more compelling claim to them.

… 

Manly’s research supports the hypothesis offered in 2012 by the U.S. economists and fund managers Paul Brodsky and Lee Quaintance that central banks were redistributing gold among themselves in anticipation of a necessary devaluation of the U.S. dollar so that governments holding excess reserves in dollars would be hedged when the time came:

http://www.gata.org/node/11373

Manly’s research also supports your secretary/treasurer’s longstanding contention that the central bank gold sales of the first decade of this century were not really sales at all but cash settlements of leases of gold executed during the gold carry trade of the previous decade. For the gold price rose steadily from 2000-2010 despite the constant announcement of central bank gold sales. The price could not have kept rising if so much central bank gold was actually hitting the market. In fact the gold had hit the market many years earlier and could not be recovered by bullion banks and repaid to central banks without exploding the gold price.

Manly writes: “While the agreements were taken at face value by the mainstream financial media and the World Gold Council as a set of agreements to remove uncertainty from the market and put a floor under the gold price, there has never been any investigation from the same media and gold council as to:

“– Whether the gold sales the central banks claim to be planning in each five-year period have already taken place, with the planned sales merely being book-squaring exercises.

“– Whether the central bank gold agreements might be a ‘hidden in plain sight’ way to redistribute gold holdings among the world’s central banks.

“– Whether the agreements might be a ‘hidden in plain sight’ mechanism to use Western central bank (G-10) gold holdings as partial payments in Saudi ‘gold for oil’ transactions.

“– Whether the agreements are a gold pool mechanism to firefight physical gold bar shortages at London Bullion Market Association bullion banks.”

Manly adds: “The central bank cartel’s claim that their coordinated sales transactions are designed to avoid market turmoil is true, but not in the way they imply. It’s a ‘hidden in plain sight’ nod to the fact that their threat of gold sales is to prevent market turmoil in every other asset class that they watch over, just not the physical gold market.

With central banks and elected officials and other politicians practically screaming “devaluation” in recent days and the gold price starting to fly as a result, maybe the underlying scheme is coming to fruition. At least letting the gold price rise may be the most effective and traditional means of devaluing both currencies and debt, which, the Scottish economist Peter Millar wrote in 2006, must be done periodically in a fiat money system to prevent interest payments from devouring the world:

http://www.gata.org/node/4843

Manly’s analysis is headlined “The Fifth Wave: A New Central Bank Gold Agreement?” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/the-fifth-wave-a-new-centr…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

I am sure that Trudeau is very excited about this:  China’s no 2 mining company and 100% state owned is contemplating a takeover of Canada’s Iamgold.

(courtesy Bloomberg)

China National Gold Group studies bid for Iamgold

 Section: 

By Dinesh Nair and Scott Deveau
Bloomberg News
Thursday, June 20, 2019

China National Gold Group Corp., the nation’s second-biggest miner of the metal, is studying a bid for a stake in Canada’s Iamgold Corp., people familiar with the matter said. Iamgold shares jumped the most in more than four years.

The state-owned gold miner is working with financial advisers on the potential offer, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information is private. Iamgold is exploring a possible sale of all or part of the company and has spoken to several potential buyers, Bloomberg News reported last month.

… 

The Toronto-based firm’s decision to explore a sale follows several sizable mergers in the industry, including Newmont Mining Corp.’s acquisition of Goldcorp Inc. and Barrick Gold Corp.’s deal for Randgold Resources Ltd. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-20/china-national-gold-i…

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

I discuss with Chris Marcus the machinations inside the Comex

(courtesy Chris Marcus/GATA)

GATA’s Harvey Organ describes metals trickery at the Comex

 Section: 

3:20p ET Thursday, June 20, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA consultant Harvey Organ, interviewed this week by Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics, describes the sleight of hand being used at the New York Commodities Exchange to mask the shortage of physical gold and silver. The interview is 35 minutes long and can be heard at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMj9-TvBQWQ&feature=youtu.be

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

James Turk et al discuss what a short squeeze on gold looks like

(courtesy Kingworldnews/GATA)

At KWN, this is what a short squeeze in gold looks like

 Section: 

12:15a ET Friday, June 21, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

At King World News tonight, Citibank analyst Tom Fitzpatrick and GoldMoney founder James Turk comment on gold’s breakout. Turk says the markets see money printing following this week’s statements by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve.

Their comments are headlined “This Is What a Massive Short Squeeze in the Gold Market Looks Like. …” and it’s posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/this-is-what-a-massive-short-squeeze-in-the-go…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

The King report discusses gold’s revolt over price suppression

(courtesy King Report/GATA)

King Report: Despite central banking’s price-suppression schemes, gold revolts

 Section: 

From The King Report
Burr Ridge, Illinois
Friday, June 21, 2019

https://mramseyking.com/king-report

Central banks can get away with promiscuous monetary schemes until gold and then bonds revolt.

Gold is now in revolution against central banks. Historically bonds eventually align with gold. But central banks and governments have cornered the bond market. Gold might have to carry the pitchforks and torches by itself for quite some time.

Gold is telling the world that a critical mass of investors is allocating central bank liquidity to gold because the liquidity is unlikely to be economically effective. This means financial assets, including currencies, are overvalued and too risky.

… 

As in any bull market, psychology and momentum build and become self-reinforcing. George Soros calls it “reflexivity.” Bullishness begets more bullishness ad infinitum and alters psychology about fundamental issues. As the trend builds, humans manufacture reasons to be bullish and eventually irrationally exuberant (excess global savings, Mexico turning the corner, dot-com mania, yada, yada, yada).

When gold is in a robust rally, pundits and the financial media have to produce fundamental reasons for the move. Inevitably with gold it is lack of confidence in — take your pick — forex, bonds, central banks, politicians, the world, or all of the above. The Street and media will create the self-reinforcing loop.

Central banks and Keynesian politicians have always detested gold because it can usurp their scams. It is also why central banks and sovereigns have engaged in gold rigging schemes to the downside for decades. They will do it again in the coming weeks and months — because they have no choice.

For years Street denizens have asked the question: What is the end game for central banks after 10 years of record promiscuity? The Fed and (probably) the People’s Bank of China tried to exit the quantitative easing roach motel. They were unable to do so. Gold and possibly bonds will be the major factors in the end game.

It is far too early to guess if or when bonds will join gold in the revolt. The longer that central banks maintain their bond corner, the higher gold should go and the worse the end game should be.


* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



iii) Other Physical stories
Gold breaks out: a technical analysis.
(courtesy Steve St Angelo/SRSRocco report)

FINALLY… GOLD BREAKS OUT THROUGH KEY 5-YEAR RESISTANCE LEVEL

By the SRSrocco Report,

After five long years, the gold price has finally broken through a key resistance level and is now heading towards $1,400.  When the Fed announced possible rate cuts starting in July, after the market closed, the gold price shot up and continued higher during Asian trading.  If gold closes above $1,400 by the end of the month, it could be setting the stage for another large bull market.

While many precious metals investors don’t follow technical analysis, traders and major markets movers are certainly paying attention.  And, the gold price has been stuck below the key $1,360 technical level for the past five years:

You will notice that the black dashed line at $1,360 hasn’t been broken (closed above it on a monthly basis) since 2014.  While the gold price has shot above $1,360 on several occasions, it has not closed above that line on a monthly basis since 2013.  This chart shows the gold price as of the close at 2 pm today.

Traders have been watching the gold technical levels for years and are now getting serious as the BREAKOUT above $1,360 is a KEY LEVEL of RESISTANCE.  If we look at a longer Gold Monthly chart going back until 1981, you will see what I mean:

When gold fell below $700 back in 1981, it stayed below it for more than 26 years.  However, when it finally broke above it in 2007, it shot up to $1,000.  Then we see the next two BREAKOUT LEVELS.  When gold fell below the $1,360 level in 2014, it has stayed below it, but has been bouncing off the rising BLUE TREND LINE.

Also, over the past several years, gold has been trading in an ASCENDING TRIANGLE (blue & black dashed lines).  Once an ascending triangle is broken above the top line, it can be very bullish for the price action.  The next chart shows the BREAKOUT that took place during Asian trading as gold price hit $1,390+ :

If the gold price closes well above the $1,360 level, that will be quite positive for the price action going forward.  So, it will be interesting to see what happens during trading in the U.S. markets tomorrow.

UPDATE:

Gold enjoys another MINI-BREAKOUT once it broke above $1,390 during trading today:

Check back for new articles and updates at the SRSrocco Report.

end
Lawrie Williams forgets that Russia produces around 230 tonnes per year.( or19.66 tonnes per month) Russia like China will not sell one oz.
Russia is thus doing a China by not officially recording their official reserves of gold.

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Russian gold purchases slowing? – 6.22 tonnes in May

The levels of Russian central bank gold purchases seem to be slowing this year. Whether this is a temporary issue or if it signifies an overall trend remains to be seen.

So far this year Russia added 6.2 tonnes in January, 31.1 tonnes in February, 18.7 tonnes in March. 15.6 tonnes in April and now only another 6.2 tonnes in May, making a total increase of 77.8 tonnes this year to date. Extrapolating this total over the full year would mean the nation only adding around 187 tonnes in 2019. This would be the lowest annual total for several years. Last year, for example, Russia added around 275 tonnes of gold to its forex reserves. Total Russian gold reserves are now reported at 2,190 tonnes which keeps it in fifth place among national holders of gold as reported to the IMF – and less than 250 tonnes behind France, currently the fourth largest national holder of gold.

It is too early to tell if this latest increase is indicative of a declining trend or not. There have been occasional months in the preceding three or four years where Russia has added smaller amounts, and in December 2016 and January and February 2015 it added no gold at all. Recently it has also been liquidating U.S. dollar related assets and may well have been purchasing gold in part to replace these (perhaps a smart move given the recent gold price rise). It has reportedly now cut its dollar-related assets very substantially to their lowest level since 2007 with holdings in U.S. Treasuries having reported to have been reduced by $150 billion over the past decade. Russia is but one of several important nations which have been reducing dollar-related holdings – perhaps in response to President Trump’s aggressive approach to diplomacy and attempts to talk down the dollar’s relative strength against other key currencies.

21 Jun 2019

end

A good question posed by Ted Butler

(courtesy Ted Butler/Chris Marcus)

Why is JPMorgan Above the Law?

Theodore Butler | June 21, 2019

Recent developments indicate, almost beyond question, that when it comes to silver (and gold), JPMorgan is operating in direct violation of the law. So clear is the proof of this allegation that the only real question is why JPM is allowed to openly flaunt basic commodity and antitrust law? Before getting to the why, let me first establish that JPMorgan is, indeed, violating the law when it comes to silver and gold.

JPMorgan is the largest and most important bank in the US and many would consider its CEO, Jamie Dimon, to be not only the most respected voice in banking, but in the corporate world as a whole. Given its high profile, JPMorgan is closely monitored and analyzed. Despite this coverage, very few know that JPMorgan is the dominant force in silver and gold markets. Yet public data demonstrate that JPMorgan has come to dominate the derivatives and physical sides of silver and gold, particularly since acquiring Bear Stearns in early 2008.

There are two final arbiters in matters of commodity and antitrust law in the US. The federal commodities regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is responsible for resolving civil infractions in regulated futures trading and the Department of Justice, is the final adjudicator for interstate commodity matters on both a civil and criminal basis.

In regards to the CFTC, the public record indicates the agency was involved in investigating and reviewing allegations of a silver price manipulation on multiple occasions both before and after JPMorgan took over Bear Stearns and it became the largest short seller in COMEX silver and gold futures in March 2008 and would remain so until the present time. The agency began a five-year formal investigation of a potential COMEX silver manipulation in September 2008 that ended inconclusively five years later. Any involvement by JPMorgan in potentially manipulating the silver market was never mentioned by the CFTC, as is typical government policy.

However, a recent interview with Bart Chilton, a CFTC commissioner at the time of JPMorgan’s acquisition of Bear Stearns and front line witness to JPM’s ascension to the role of most dominant COMEX silver short seller, basically confirmed that the agency was in a running battle at the time to get JPMorgan to reduce its excessive silver short position. The CFTC’s efforts to get JPMorgan to reduce its manipulative short position were unsuccessful, both at the time and for the following eleven years. Sadly and shockingly, Chilton passed away weeks after his interview of a natural cause he had to know would shortly end his life. There can be little doubt that Chilton wanted to go on the record about JPMorgan and silver before his coming certain demise. There is now a written transcript of Chilton’s last interview with Chris Marcus –

https://arcadiaeconomics.com/silver- manipulation/bart-chilton-on-jp-morgan-and-silver- manipulation/

A measured review of the public record and Bart Chilton’s last interview leaves little doubt that the CFTC (accompanied with interest and involvement from the Justice Department at the time) tried and failed to rein in JPMorgan from excessive and manipulative short selling in COMEX silver staring in 2008. Emboldened by its success in rebuffing CFTC and Justice Department efforts to limit its short selling in COMEX silver (and gold) futures contracts to manipulate prices to be artificially depressed, JPMorgan embarked on a new strategy in early 2011, namely, to begin to accumulate as much physical silver and gold as it could to take advantage of the low prices it created by excessive futures short sales.

While clearly illegal, JPMorgan’s new strategy proved phenomenally successful over the next 8 years to the present time. All told, JPMorgan has acquired 850 million ounces of physical silver and somewhere between 20 to 25 million ounces of physical gold since early 2011, at an average price of $18 in silver and $1200 in gold. At current prices, JPMorgan is about even to a bit ahead on its combined physical silver and gold holdings, down on silver and up on gold. Good luck to those trying to find these holdings on JPMorgan’s books, as it is the undisputed master at hiding assets. Besides, the $40 to $50 billion worth of JPM’s combined silver and gold holdings are less than 2% of its total assets of $2.5 trillion+. More remarkably, JPMorgan has continued to profit from COMEX futures trading, never once taking a loss, always profits, over the past 11 years.

On November 6, 2018, it looked like the Feds had finally caught up with JPMorgan, when the Department of Justice announced it had unsealed a criminal guilty plea from a month earlier by a former precious metals trader from the bank for manipulating prices in the COMEX futures contracts from 2009 to 2015 and that it was involved in an ongoing investigation. The announcement indicated that the trader had conspired with other traders at the bank and, in fact, learned to manipulate from other traders at the bank and did so with his supervisors’ knowledge.

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-precious-metals- trader-pleads-guilty-commodities-fraud-and-spoofing- conspiracy

Given the timing of the press release from the DOJ, it had to have been investigating COMEX precious metals by traders from JPMorgan for well over a year through today. I know that this is not a matter expected to be resolved within days or weeks, but price manipulation is the most serious market crime of all and the sad fact is that despite the guilty plea and announcement of an ongoing investigation, JPMorgan has continued to manipulate the price of silver and gold since the announcement, as well as continue to accumulate physical silver. Therefore, it appears highly unlikely that the Justice Department intends to truly crack down on JPMorgan, since the manipulation is still in effect.

This brings us to the question of why is JPMorgan above the law. What is it that has prevented both the CFTC and the Justice Department from upholding commodities law when it comes to JPMorgan? Some might suggest that JPMorgan is acting on behalf of the US Government in depressing the price of gold and silver, but if that was the case, why bother with announcements and ongoing drawn-out investigations? Certainly, no one would accuse the late Bart Chilton as being involved in such a conspiracy. There has to be a better explanation than some unfounded conspiracy theory.

I’ve narrowed it down to two possible explanations for why the CFTC and Justice Department have failed to crack down on JPMorgan for manipulating silver and gold prices. One certainly involves the CFTC and perhaps even the Justice Department knowing that they are inadequate in matching up to JPMorgan in legal terms. It’s hard to imagine any entity, government included, being able to match the legal firepower of JPMorgan in a court of law. Knowing this, even US Government agencies would be reluctant to go toe-to-toe with JPM in open legal conflict out of the fear of loss – better to compromise and settle and to save face and reputation than to lose in court.

The second explanation is that JPMorgan is so important to the overall financial system that if the Justice Department did succeed in prevailing against JPMorgan in such a significant criminal matter as market manipulation, what would be the fallout to the financial system? To be frank, I’m not sure I would crack down hard on JPMorgan if it meant its complete demise, even though I am beyond convinced it is a stone-cold crook when it comes to silver and gold. Please don’t misunderstand me – I’m not suggesting for a moment that JPMorgan be allowed to continue its manipulation of silver and gold – I’m saying that there must be a better way of ending the manipulation, short of putting JPMorgan out of business, which is possible if the Justice Department prevailed in a criminal finding.

But one thing is certain – JPMorgan cannot be allowed to continue its manipulation of silver and gold, almost regardless of the consequences. Unfortunately, the current approach by the Justice Department is permitting just that and is making a mockery of the rule of law. No one is above the law, not even JPMorgan and the current DOJ approach of investigate but allow the crime to continue is more damaging to the rule of law in many ways than is JPMorgan’s manipulation itself.

Perhaps even a bigger question than why is JPMorgan allowed to operate in open defiance of the rule of law, is why so few see it. I don’t think there could be a more significant market issue than JPMorgan’s manipulation of silver and gold and the only explanation for why so few see it is that they haven’t examined the public facts. While it’s true that precious metals prices being in the doldrums for much of the past eight years haven’t encouraged interest in this space, but that can and will change. One good mainstream media story based upon the facts can focus attention in a hurry. Certainly there has been no rebuttal of the facts as I have presented them from the regulators or even from JPMorgan for that matter.

Even within the precious metals community, I get the sense that JPMorgan’s activities are not widely appreciated. Here’s a recent interview in which I sensed JPMorgan’s role came as somewhat of a surprise.

https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=4ObaScOxP9Q

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end
GOLD//SILVER TRADING TODAY:

 

end

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8694/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8759   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 14.86 POINTS OR 0.50%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 204.22 POINTS OR 0.95%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 204.22 POINTS OR 0.95%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 96.66/Euro RISES TO 1.1307

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.16/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107/51/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.82 and Brent: 65/36

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.30%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.12% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.42%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.52: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.55

3k Gold at $1393.90 silver at: 14.32   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 51/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.37

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 65 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.51 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9824 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1108 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.30%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.03% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.54%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8080..

 

Global Stock Rally Fizzles On Quad-Witching Friday As Iran Tensions Spike, Gold Hits 6 Year High

 

The global stock rally that took all US assets, including stocks, investment grade and junk bonds, to all time highs while sending gold and Treasuries soaring on Thursday, fizzled as world stocks fell on Friday amid worries about a U.S. military strike against Iran, while the ongoing US-China trade conflict took the edge off the central bank-induced rally from earlier in the week.

 

The scramble for anything that wasn’t nailed down, pushed Gold futures above $1,400 an ounce for the first time since September 2013 on Friday and Treasuries were steady.

 

After closing at a record on Thursday, the S&P 500 was set to open slightly lower, as Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index was weighed down by media companies. Asian markets were mixed, with Japanese, South Korean and Australian shares declining as Chinese shares rose.

Investor sentiment was rattled after the New York Times said late on Thursday that President Trump had approved military strikes against Iran on Friday in retaliation for the downing of an unmanned surveillance drone, then pulled back from launching the attacks. Iranian officials told Reuters on Friday that Tehran had received a message from U.S. President Donald Trump through Oman warning that a U.S. attack on Iran was imminent.

Friday is also quad-witching option expiration, when “strange”, and often unexplained things happen in the market as volumes soar and traders are caught flat footed. As a reminder, there is a major option “pin” around around 2,950 in the S&P, so it is quite likely that any major moves away will be difficult to achieve, but if the S&P starts moving, it may accelerate rapidly in either direction.

Meanwhile, worries about a possible mid-east war persist, and the MSCI world equity index fell from a seven-week high, driven mostly by weakness in Asian stocks. A rally by European stocks also faded, with the pan-European index sliding in the red.

“ … Market risk hasn’t been switched off, it’s merely gone dim,” said Vanguard’s Stephen Innes. “However, it does appear equity markets are tired and may be suffering from a bit of a hangover after partying it up to post FOMC.”

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.15%. The index was still up nearly 4% on the week – its biggest weekly gain since January  reaching its highest level since May 8. Markets in the region were mixed, with Japan and India retreating and China advancing. Health care and consumer staples were among the worst-performing sectors. The Topix gauge fell 0.9%, driven by SoftBank Group and Sony, as Japan’s key inflation gauge edged lower. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.5% before the first phase of A-share inclusion in FTSE Russell’s global indexes, which will take effect at the June 24 market open.

European stocks added to early gains after Eurozone, German and France flash composite PMI readings for June all came in stronger than consensus, suggesting that the worst of the European storm may now be over. The German June Flash Manufacturing PMI printed at 45.4, above the estimated 44.6 as New Orders rose to 44.2 vs 42.7 in May, their ninth consecutive month of contraction; in France, the June Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 52 from 50.6, also above the 50.8 estimate and in line with the 52.5 print a year ago.

 

The news of a possible bottom in European manufacturing sent German yields higher across the curve, with the 10-yr Bund yield +2bps at -0.3%, still ~4.5bps lower on the week.

In US rates, Treasury yields were steady to 1bp higher in 2-yr through 10-yr tenors, with 10-yr yield down ~5bps this week, and unchanged on Friday at 2.02%.

As tensions remain elevated and concerns about collapsing global rates are rising, gold advanced to a six-year high of $1,410.78 an ounce on Friday, boosted by the geopolitical tensions and the prospect of a U.S. rate cut. At one stage, gold was up nearly 5% on the week.

“While lower real rates in the U.S. and globally make gold more attractive, the metal is being increasingly viewed as a cardinal asset to hedge against the scrim of unpredictability like the fear of recession and war,” Innes said.

Separately, China and the United States are set to resume trade talks before Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet next week in Japan. Hopes of an agreement grew after the two leaders talked by telephone call, but neither side has signaled a shift from positions that led to an impasse last month. According to a real-time index of favorable trade deal odds from Goldman Sachs, the probability of a positive outcome is only 20%.

In FX, the Bloomberg USD index +0.1%, with NZD and GBP leading losses in the G-10 space, SEK leading gains. The Bloomberg dollar index steadied as investors trimmed short exposure into the weekend yet it was headed for its worst week since February 2018, after the Fed signaled that a rate cut is coming, which also pushed gold above $1,400 for the first time since 2013.

Elsewhere, the EURUSD gains as much as 0.2% to 1.1316 after the positive PMI surprises from France and Germany, even as the overall Euro-area manufacturing PMI reading at 47.8 missed estimate of 48 amid concern the region is sliding closer toward stagnation. The USDJPY reverses losses, rises 0.2% to 107.53 high, after dropping to 107.05, weakest since Jan. 3 flash crash. The USDCHF was up 0.2% to 0.9839; it slid Thursday to 0.9792, lowest since since Jan. 10; pair down 1.6% this week. GBPUSD slid 0.3% to 1.2656, off 1.2725 day high as the contest for the leadership of the  Conservative Party enters its final stage as Brexiteer Boris Johnson will fight former remainer and current Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt to become Britain’s next prime minister. Cable is still up 0.7% on the week, as it built on broad dollar weakness, even as money markets now see a more than 50% chance of a rate cut by November 2020. Finally, down under, AUDUSD dropped 0.1% to 0.6916; while NZDUSD was down 0.3% to 0.6565 low as antipodeans lose traction after the London open; the kiwi led losses in G-10.

In commodities, gold was little changed, with both Brent ($64.76) and WTI (57.21) slightly higher on the session as traders awaited next steps in the Iran escalation. They had surged more than 5% the previous day after Iran shot down the U.S. drone.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,952.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.09% to 386.49
  • MXAP down 0.4% to 159.44
  • MXAPJ down 0.2% to 524.97
  • Nikkei down 1% to 21,258.64
  • Topix down 0.9% to 1,545.90
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 28,473.71
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,001.98
  • Sensex down 1% to 39,200.52
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 6,650.78
  • Kospi down 0.3% to 2,125.62
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.1 bps to -0.297%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1306
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 3.5 bps to 1.782%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to 0.403%
  • Brent futures up 0.7% to $64.88/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,388.66
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.64

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The euro-area economy showed some signs of stabilization in June, but it may not be enough to comfort the European Central Bank. A pickup in a measure of activity was tempered by weakness in sentiment, which was at a five-year low, according to surveys of purchasing managers
  • The last glimmer of positive yields on German bonds is in danger of being snuffed out. Thirty-year yields turning negative would be a first among major bond markets, with a global rally already having sent all of Germany’s out to 20 years below zero
  • The U.S. called off military strikes against Iran on Thursday night that were approved by President Trump, according to an administration official, abandoning a move that would have dramatically escalated already high tensions between the two countries
  • BOE Governor Mark Carney said the U.K. can’t avoid tariffs with the EU if it leaves the bloc without an agreement, refuting a position defended by Boris Johnson, the front-runner to be Britain’s next prime minister
  • Hong Kong protesters, including student groups, resumed demonstrations in the city center Friday to demand Chief Executive Carrie Lam step down. Historic protests in the past few weeks prompted Lam to suspend the extradition bill indefinitely and apologize to the city’s 7.5 million people

Asian equity markets traded mostly lacklustre as the FOMC-fuelled momentum began to wane in the region despite the strong lead from Wall St where the S&P 500 rallied to fresh all-time highs and the energy sector outperformed on further oil advances. ASX 200 (-0.6% ) and Nikkei 225 (-1.0%) were both lower although downside was stemmed for most the session by strength in energy and commodity-related stocks after WTI gained around 6% and gold broke above USD 1400/oz for the first time since September 2013, while South32 was among the notable gainers in Australia after it received a couple of bids for its coal assets. Chinese markets were mixed with the Hang Seng (-0.3%) subdued after further disruptions from protesters discontent the extradition law wasn’t fully withdrawn by their set deadline and who also demanded that all charges against those involved in last week’s protests are dropped. Conversely, the Shanghai Comp. (+0.5%) bucked the trend and rose above the 3,000 level after the PBoC’s liquidity efforts resulted to a net injection of CNY 285bln for the week and with US-China trade negotiating teams said to meet as early as Tuesday. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher and briefly broke above 154.00 amid the subdued risk tone in Japan and BoJ presence in the market for JPY 1.23tln of JGBs in 1yr-10yr maturities, while yields continued to decline in which Japanese 10yr yields fell to the lowest since July 2016.

Top Asian News

  • Slow Monsoon Progress Threatens Dry Spell for India Agro Stocks
  • FTSE Index Rebalancing Triggers Moves in These Asia Stocks
  • China Says Within Rights to Control Foreign Visits to Hong Kong
  • UBS Expects Asia IG and HY Bond Spreads to Widen Amid Trade War

European equities are mixed [Eurostoxx 50 Unch] as the region received a lacklustre handover from Asia on quadruple witching day. The European cash open was relatively uninspiring with most bourses flat/lower before receiving some impetus from encouraging French and German flash PMIs, albeit the EZ metrics were mixed. Sectors are now mostly in the red but energy names lead the gains amid the this week’s price action in the complex. In terms of individual movers, Natixis (-4.0%) shares fell amid a downgrade at HSBC. On the flip side, Elior (+4.3%) shares are bolstered due to a positive broker move at Goldman Sachs. Elsewhere, Telecom Italia (+1.6%) shares rose amid reports that the Co. signed a non-disclosure agreement to start talks regarding a TIM and Open Fiber network integration. Finally, looking at analysis from Nomura Quant, the bank believes that dips in stocks ahead of G20 pose good buying opportunities as it sees signs of increased equity exposures by speculators , “Judging from the pattern of market sentiment and supply-demand among hedge funds, we still expect the risk rally to sustain into July”, Nomura says.

Top European News

  • Euro-Area Output Makes Subdued Improvement in June, PMI Shows
  • Salvini Tax Cut Demand Squeezes Conte’s Room for EU Negotiations
  • Telecom Italia Starts Talks to Combine Grids With Open Fiber
  • Goldman Says Global Dovishness Will Delay East Europe Rate Hikes

In FX, the EUR has gleaned support from above forecast French and German preliminary PMIs that appear to have offset weakness elsewhere in the Eurozone and underpinned the pan prints to an extent. However, Eur/Usd has stalled well ahead of major resistance in the 1.1347-50 area where 200 WMA and DMAs reside as the Greenback attempts to stabilise following its Fed induced sell-off and the DXY holds just above 96.500 vs 96.492 lows. Note also, hefty 2.5 bn option expiry interest at the 1.1300 strike is keeping the headline pair contained, while Eur/CHF remains top heavy and technically bearish around 1.1100 even though the Franc is fading vs the Buck within a 0.9808-38 range.

  • CAD/SEK – Also relative G10 outperformers as the Loonie holds above 1.3200 against its US counterpart and looks towards Canadian retail sales data for more independent direction, while the Swedish Krona seems to be benefiting from Scandi cross flows as its Norwegian peer loses some Norges Bank momentum, with Eur/Sek hovering just above 10.6100 and Eur/Nok rebounding from the low 9.6500 region to 9.6850+ at one stage.
  • NZD/AUD/GBP/JPY – All weaker vs the recovering Usd, as the Kiwi fails to sustain gains above 0.6600 and Aussie wanes ahead of 0.6950 alongside a pull-back in the Yuan after a strong PBoC midpoint fix overnight. Meanwhile, Cable has been unable to retain grip of the 1.2700 handle yet again after topping out close to yesterday’s 1.2727 high for the week so far and the Yen has pulled up short of 107.00 with decent expiries between the figure and 107.05 (1.4 bn) adding to psychological resistance, as Japan’s monetary authorities monitor currency moves closely. On the flip-side, 1.3 bn options at 107.50 and a further 2.8 bn from 107.70-80 may well keep Usd/Jpy in check into the NY cut, if not beyond.
  • EM – Widespread declines as the Dollar regains a degree of composure, and with the Lira also wary about the weekend election rerun in Istanbul following all the rumpus after the first vote. Usd/Try is back over 5.8000, while the Rand and Rouble are also handing back a chunk of their recent gains but not quite to the same extent, with Usd/Zar and Usd/Rub straddling 14.4100 and 63.1000 respectively. Note, MS has reportedly shorted the latter pair at 63.3000, looking for 60.0000 and placing a stop at 65.0000.mitigation.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures continue to advance as tensions in the Middle East escalate, with NYT reporting that the Trump administration considered a strike in Iran following the downing of the US spy drone yesterday. Furthermore, officials stated that US President Trump delivered Iran a warning of an imminent attack, with the message noting “we do not want war but talks” and gave Tehran a deadline to start discussions. Brent is poised for it biggest weekly gain since April and inches closer to the USD 65/bbl level ahead of its 100 WMA at 67.10. Meanwhile, WTI  futures reclaimed the USD 57.00/bbl handle before hitting resistance close to USD 58.00/bbl. ING believes “oil prices  will trend higher over the second half of the year” due to the flaring tensions in the Middle East, coupled with expectations for an OPEC+ extension. Elsewhere, gold topped USD 1400/oz in Asia trade (albeit now back below the figure) and reached a high of USD 1411/oz, levels last seen in September 2013. Upside in the yellow metal has been driven primarily by the dovish tilts in major central banks, a weakening Buck and fears of potential war between the US and Iran. Gold remains near to the top of this week’s 1333-1411 range thus far. Elsewhere, copper pared some of yesterday’s gains as the FOMC-led momentum waned overnight, although the red metal is off lows. Finally, Dalian iron ore futures continued to advance as concerns persisted over tight supply, strong demand and declining shipments from Rio Tinto.

US Event Calendar

  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 50.5, prior 50.5; US Services PMI, est. 51, prior 50.9; US Composite PMI, prior 50.9
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales, est. 5.3m, prior 5.19m; MoM, est. 2.12%, prior -0.4%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to the longest day of the year here in the Northern hemisphere. It’s all downhill to winter from here folks! Sadly it’s been a long night at home as Maisie is having withdrawal symptoms on her second night without a dummy. We’ve been up a few times and as I type this I can hear “I want my dummy” in the background. Sigh. I hope it doesn’t put me off my stride for the below. That’ll be more dolls house furniture we need to buy this weekend.

Markets continue to party on the central banks’ decisions this week, with the ECB and Fed having managed to ensure that rates, equities and credit are all prospering with the S&P 500 at all time highs last night even if markets are consolidating a bit in the Asian session. Also a late US rates sell-off last night dented the run a little too. It’s not clear what caused it but it could have been a delayed reaction to the strongest day of the year for oil (+5.38%) with Iran tensions mounting. Anyway its been mostly reversed in Asia as 10yr USTs hover around 2%.

There is one more big test left for markets this week and that is the release of the flash June PMIs today. We’ve already had the Japan manufacturing print which came in at 49.5 compared to 49.8 last month with accompanying commentary from IHS Markit reading that “a soft patch for automotive demand and subdued client confidence in the wake of US-China trade frictions were often cited by survey respondents”, as a reason for a further loss in momentum. In Europe this morning, the consensus expects modest improvements for both the manufacturing (48.0 vs. 47.7 last month) and services (53.0 vs. 52.9 last month) readings for the Euro Area with manufacturing prints for Germany and France also expected to improve. We’ll also get the data for the US this afternoon where no change is expected for the manufacturing print at 50.5 and a 0.1pt rise for the services reading to 51.0. All evidence of trade war interference will be carefully assessed around the globe.

The highlights yesterday included a new all-time high for the S&P 500 (+0.95%) which came only 13 sessions after hitting a 12-week low earlier this month (+7.64% higher from these lows). The NASDAQ (+0.80%) and DOW (+0.94%) are back to within 1.55% and 0.74% of their respective all-time highs as cyclical sectors led the charge yesterday. The dollar declined another -0.48% as the fallout from yesterday’s Fed meeting continued, with EM currencies advancing +0.33% to an 8-week high. That included a +0.55% gain for the Turkish Lira following a bit of a whipsaw day after President Erdogan advocated for lower rates and retributions for US sanctions.

There was a swoon around lunchtime in the US, with all the major US indexes paring almost all of their gains, as the tension between the US and Iran notched up another several gears. Iran apparently shot down a US reconnaissance drone in international airspace, though the leader of the Revolutionary Guard Gen. Hossein Salami suggested it had broached Iranian airspace. He went on to say that “we are fully ready for war” though he does not desire conflict with anyone. President Trump responded by tweeting that “Iran made a very big mistake!” and telling reporters that “you’ll soon find out” if the US would respond militarily. He also invited Congressional leaders from both parties to attend a briefing in the White House Situation Room, a relatively rare occurrence. Markets nevertheless bounced off their lows when Trump clarified that he finds it “hard to believe it was intentional” by Iran. Still, WTI oil prices rose +5.38% – their biggest daily gain since 26 December – and gold reached a five-year high (+2.16%) as investors digested the implications of the elevated geopolitical risks. Overnight, the New York times has reported that President Trump approved military strikes against Iran in retaliation for the downing of the drone, but pulled back hours after approving them. The report further went on to add that it is unclear whether the attacks might still go forward. So certainly one to watch.

In Europe, the STOXX 600 posted a +0.36% gain while cash HY spreads in Europe and the US were -15.0bps and -11bps tighter respectively. In CDS markets the CDX IG index in the US is trading at the tightest level in 15 months while iTraxx Main is at the tightest level since last May. As for rates, 10yr Treasuries yields edged +0.5bps higher with the late day sell-off, though they had earlier slipped below the 2% level for the first time since the US presidential election in November 2016. Meanwhile 2yr yields were +4.2bps higher, causing the curve to flatten -3.7bps to 24.5bps. Across the curve, inflation breakevens rose, likely as a result of climbing oil prices, while real yields actually continued to slide, with the former outweighing the latter overall. For the Fed, that divergence is likely the ideal policy outcome. Yields in Europe were broadly 2-4bps lower with 10y Bunds in particular rallying -3.0bps to -0.318% and back to the lows once more. BTPs underperformed, selling off +3.7bps as Italy sent a reply letter to the Commission about its budget. The initial reports suggest that the document is light on details, potentially raising the odds that ECOFIN opts to open an EDP against Italy at its July 9 meeting.

This morning in Asia markets are trading mixed with the Nikkei (-0.58%), Hang Seng (-0.26%) and Kospi (-0.27%) all down while the Shanghai Comp (+0.61%) is up. The Japanese yen advancing to 107.08 (+0.21% this morning), the strongest level since April 2018, is likely to be weighing on the Nikkei. Meanwhile, yields on 10y JGBs are down -0.9bp to -0.185%, thereby trading very close to the lower target bound of -0.20%. However, the BoJ Governor Kuroda said in his presser yesterday that markets should think of the target range flexibly. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.28%. In terms of other overnight data releases, Japan’s May CPI came in line with consensus at +0.7% yoy while core-CPI came in one-tenth above expectations at +0.8% yoy. Staying in the region, it’s worth noting that yesterday Chinese President Xi said that China is willing to play a “positive role” in the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula. So that might be an added element to upcoming US/China trade talks.

Moving on and after an epic central bank week, the baton was passed to the BoE yesterday. As expected, there was no policy change in what was a unanimous decision. Since MPC members Haldane and Saunders had indicated that they were prepared to raise rates in coming meetings in comments prior to yesterday, this was at the margin dovish. Language around global growth was downgraded, while language on domestic growth was also softer, with the forecast for GDP in Q2 downgraded to 0.0% from +0.2%, albeit closer to what the market expects. Sterling had been trading stronger prior to the meeting but gave up some gains after the statement was released to finish +0.52% on the day. Our UK economists described the meeting as a steady as she goes type of message and also noted that the overall tone was slightly dovish. See more here .

Staying with central banks, amazingly we can list one as being hawkish this week with the Norges Bank yesterday hiking rates 25bps (albeit as expected) to 1.25%. The statement and forward guidance was a lot more hawkish than expected though, including signals that there are more hikes to come and it helped the NOK rally +1.83% and the most of any major currencies yesterday.

In the UK, politics continued to consume a lot of attention. The final two candidates for the Conservative party leadership contest are now set; it will be Boris Johnson versus Jeremy Hunt. The bookmakers certainly favour Johnson (per the Telegraph), with current odds implying that he is a 90% favourite to win the vote amongst the 160,000 Tory party members. The winner will be announced on 22 July, leaving 3 days before Parliament’s planned summer recess, which is set for 25 Jul-3 Sep. That will leave a three day window for either Johnson to announce a general election or possibly for the opposition to table a no confidence motion.

As for the US data, a pretty awful looking headline June Philly Fed reading (0.3 vs. 10.4 expected and 16.6 in May) was partially offset by better underlying details and also a consensus reading which appeared far too optimistic in the first place given the latest empire reading. Indeed the ISM-adjusted series (constructed from components similar to the ISM) actually rose by 0.4pts to 55.0. As for claims, they fell 6k last week to 216k and thus reinforced the strong labour market message. The other data yesterday came from the UK where retail sales excluding fuel fell -0.3% mom in May, slightly less than expected.

Finally to the day ahead, which this morning includes those flash June PMIs in Europe and May public finances data in the UK. In the US we’ll also get the flash PMIs followed not long after by May existing home sales. It’s also a busy day for Fed speak with Brainard and Mester taking part in a Fed Listens Event this evening, while Daly is due to speak later on. The BoE’s Tenreyro is also due to speak this afternoon. The other potentially important event is the latest results of the Fed’s stress tests. The results are due in two stages with the first results due today which will reveal the hypothetical losses banks would face under the Fed’s calculations.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.86 POINTS OR 0.50%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 76.72 POINTS OR 0.27%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 204.22 POINTS OR 0.25%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .50%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8694 /Oil UP TO 57.82 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.36 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8694 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8759 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3c China/Chinese affairs

i)China/

Shibor was set at a 10 yr low of 1.11% as rates all over the globe are falling.  It seems that China’s interbank market was freezing up in the aftermath of Baoshang Bank collapse.  China’s economy is faltering and that is the reason they are lowering rates trying to increase liquidity.

(zerohedge)

China Hit By “Significant Banking Stress” As SHIBOR Plummets To Recession Levels

It’s probably not a coincidence that just days after we reported that China’s interbank market was freezing up in the aftermath of the Baoshang Bank collapse and subsequent seizure, which led to a surge in interbank repo rates and a spike in Negotiable Certificates of Deposit (NCD) rates…

 

… that Beijing is doing everything in its power to keep liquidity flowing within the world’s largest, ~$40 trillion, financial system.

Case in point: China’s overnight SHIBOR lending rate tumbled overnight, sliding from 1.253%, and 1.924% a week ago, to just 1.11% today. This, as Commodore Research points out, marks the lowest level seen since June 12, 2015.

In fact, the only other time this decade that SHIBOR rates fell to such a low level was back in 2015 (which was a period when China was likely undergoing a recession). Prior to 2015, the previous time that SHIBOR rates fell to 1.11% (or lower) was during the global financial crisis in 2008/2009.

As Commodore further notes, “there recently has remained talk of liquidity problems and banking fears in China (and these concerns have only grown since the Baoshang Bank failure in May). Low SHIBOR lending rates are supportive and accommodative in nature — but rates sitting at rare multi-year lows are likely an indication that China is facing significant banking stress at the moment.”

The report’s conclusion: “It is very rare for the overnight SHIBOR lending rate to be set as low as 1.11%.”

Meanwhile, as the world’s biggest financial time bomb ticks ever louder, traders and analysts are blissfully oblivious, focusing instead on central banks admitting that the recession is imminent and trying to spin how a world war with Iran would be bullish for stocks.

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

i)IRAN/USA

Trump ordered a military strike on Iran but then sent a message to the Ayatollah giving them one last chance

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Ordered Military Strike On Iran, Then Called It Off In The Last Minute

President Trump reportedly gave the order to attack Iran Thursday night in response to its downing of a US drone that Washington claims was in international waters at the time. The US went so far as to maneuver planes and ships into position before the strike was called off.

The New York Times and WSJ report, citing a handful of senior officials, that the president was prepared to attack a number of Iranian targets, including radar and missile batteries. However, he eventually gave the word to stand down, with  the NYT reporting that Trump chose to pull US military forces back, though it isn’t clear why.

Earlier in the day, Trump said during a press conference with Canada’s Justin Trudeau that it was possible that a ‘rogue’ general had authorized the drone take-down, and that the whole incident might be some kind of mistake. The strike was still in motion as late as 7 pm ET (just before dawn Iran time), and officials were surprised when it didn’t happen, given the intense discussions between top national security personnel.

Drone

Reuters confirms the big picture, reporting that a senior administration said US warplanes took to the air and ships were put in position for a retaliatory attack only for an order to come to stand down, without any weapons being fired. Strikes had been set for early in the day to minimize harm to civilians and the military, and it was unclear if the administration would move ahead with attacks at a later date. Trump made clear that the situation would have been much more tense if the unmanned $130 million surveillance drone had been flown by a pilot. Washington had warned Tehran of the attack via Oman.

The attack would have been the third strike ordered in the Middle East by Trump, following two missile strikes in Syria in 2017 and 2018. It wasn’t clear whether Trump simply changed his mind on the attacks, or whether the military was embracing a different strategy.

Trump’s national security advisers split about whether to respond militarily. Senior administration officials said Trump’s neocons – Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, National Security Advisor John Bolton and CIA Director Gina Haspel – predictably had favored a military response. But top Pentagon officials cautioned that such an action could set off a spiraling escalation that could draw in American forces in the region.

MAP

As the news of possible military action against Iran emerged, the FAA issued an emergency notice barring US airlines from flying in airspace over parts of the Gulf.

“All flight operations in the overwater area of the Tehran flight information region…above the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman only are prohibited until further notice due to heightened military activities and increased political tensions,” the FAA said, per the FT.

The FAA order came as United Airlines suspended its Mumbai to Newark flight that passes over Iran.

For what it’s worth, Trump’s decision to cancel the strike will please international officials who had urged the US to exercise restraint.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang on Friday urged the US and Iran to resolve issues through dialogue in response to a question Friday about reports of an aborted American military strike.

Still, with Iran set to breach its limits on enriched uranium set out in the Iran deal within the next few days, the prospect of military escalation is hardly off the table.

END

Same topic as above

(courtesy Daily Mail)

President ‘asks for meeting with Ayatollah’ as Tehran shows off debris from downed drone and it emerges Trump ‘approved strikes but pulled back at last minute as planes and warships were in position’

  • Officials were said to be expecting a strike as late as 7pm on Thursday  
  • But following a Situation Room briefing and amid increasing fears of open conflict Mitch McConnell said ‘measured responses’ would be coming 
  • Those in favor of a military response reportedly included Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, national security adviser John R. Bolton and CIA director Gina Haspel
  • Pentagon officials are said to have warned against escalation 
  • Newly released Pentagon video shows a smoke trail from the downed aircraft
  • The high-altitude, high-endurance Naval drone was brought down Wednesday
  • It was denounced as an ‘unprovoked attack’ in international air space by the US
  • But Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Thursday that parts of the drone had been recovered in Iranian territorial waters 
  • In a letter addressed to the UN Iran called it a ‘dangerous and provocative’ act
  • President Donald Trump had initially labeled the a missile strike a ‘big mistake’
  • He then moved to dial tensions down, suggesting it may have been shot in error
  • Iranian officials said he asked for talks with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
  • United Airlines, Qantas, Air France and KLM have changed flight routes in the Gulf 
  • Tehran released images of the wrecked drone stripped of its internal technology 
  • By LAUREN FRUEN FOR DAILYMAIL.COM and AFP

    PUBLISHED: 22:04 BST, 20 June 2019 UPDATED: 11:31 BST, 21 June 2019

  • Donald Trump has asked for talks with Iran’s Ayatollah after pulling back on strikes at the last minute as warships and jets were poised following an attack on a US drone, according to reports.

    Tehran showed off debris of the downed spy plane’s fuselage as reports emerged the president had pulled out of attacking Iran on Thursday evening.

    Military and diplomatic officials were said to be expecting a strike as late as 7pm, with planned attacks on radar and missile batteries approved, The New York Times reports.

    The paper says multiple senior administration sources confirmed the plans.

    Iranian officials stated today Trump had given them a short window to convey an imperative wish for talks to the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

    A source told Reuters: ‘In his message, Trump said he was against any war with Iran and wanted to talk to Tehran … He gave a short period of time to get our response but Iran’s immediate response was that it is up to [the] Supreme Leader.’

    Iran released images of the wrecked drone, stripped of its internal technologies, amid fears over what Tehran and its allies might glean from its workings.

    A White House insider told the New York Times planes were in the air and ships were in position when the mission was called off – against the advice Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, national security adviser John R. Bolton and CIA director Gina Haspel.

    Former Bolton aide Fred Fleitz commended the president for ‘responding with restraint,’ as Trump met with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Minority leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell at the White House last night.

    Fleitz told Fox: ‘There’s people saying right now [that] the president is responsible if Iran responds with violence because we withdrew from that deal. That is a fraudulent argument … He has given [Iran] an opportunity to deescalate the situation, and I think he handled it right today.’

    Iran had earlier released GPS coordinates suggesting the drone was eight miles off its coast. That put the missile within the 12 nautical miles from the shore Iran claims as its territorial waters.

    Officials there later said they had ‘indisputable’ evidence the drone violated its airspace.

    But the US said it was shot down 21 miles off the Iranian coast, in the Strait of Hormuz.

    The president held a Situation Room briefing Thursday evening where his administration are said to have promised a ‘measured’ response to Iran after Washington accused Tehran of shooting down a drone and attacking oil tankers.

    Pentagon video released earlier in the day showed a smoke trail from the $180million surveillance aircraft following a missile strike initially slammed by Trump as a ‘big mistake’.

    But amid the increasing fears of open conflict, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell confirmed to Fox News a ‘measured responses’ would be coming.

  • Those in the Situation Room meeting included CIA Director Haspel, Pompeo and Army Secretary Mark Esper.

    Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan was pictured arriving for a meeting with Trump about Iran holding a folder marked ‘SECRET/NOFORN’.

    In a statement, House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy and Ranking Members Rep. Michael McCaul, Rep. Devin Nunes and Rep. Mac Thornberry said: ‘There must be a measured response to these actions. President Trump and his national security team remain clear-eyed on the situation and what must be done in response to increased Iranian aggression.

    ‘In Congress, we stand ready to support our men and women in uniform, our country, and our allies in the region.’

    Trump has twice taken military action against targets in the Middle East – in Syria in 2017 and 2018. It is not known why a decision was made to pull back Thursday or what the response going forward will be.

    Those in favor of a military response are said to have included Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, national security adviser John R. Bolton and CIA director Gina Haspel.

    Officials at the Pentagon are said to have warned of escalation and risks for American forces.

    It is understood both The White House and Pentagon officials have not commented on the claims.

    Following the news 2020 presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren tweeted, saying the US ‘needs to step back from the brink of war’.

    She wrote: ‘Donald Trump promised to bring our troops home. Instead he has pulled out of a deal that was working and instigated another unnecessary conflict.

    ‘There is no justification for further escalating this crisis—we need to step back from the brink of war.’

    Democrat Chris Murphy said: ‘The place we have arrived at tonight on Iran is Donald Trump’s choice. He chose escalation over diplomacy, without any idea how to get out of the downward spiral he set in motion.’

    On Thursday evening the the Federal Aviation Administration issued an emergency order prohibiting all U.S. flights in over water area of Tehran-controlled airspace above Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

    This followed an earlier release by United Airlines that said it had suspended flights between New Jersey’s Newark airport and the Indian financial capital of Mumbai following a safety review.

    ‘Given current events in Iran, we have conducted a thorough safety and security review of our India service through Iranian airspace and decided to suspend our service between EWR and BOM,’ United said on its website, referring to the airports.

    Qantas, Air France and KLM announced later they would also avoid flights through the region.

    Earlier Thursday the US suggested the drone – which has a wingspan wider than a Boeing 737 – was shot down 21 miles off the Iranian coast in the Strait of Hormuz.

    Lt Gen Joseph Guastella, commander of U.S. Central Command air forces in the region, said: ‘This was an unprovoked attack on a U.S. surveillance asset that had not violated Iranian airspace at any time.’

    But the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it brought the drone down because it was ‘violating Iranian air space’ over the waters of Hormozgan province.

    Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif provided coordinates to back the claim and said Iran would take the evidence to the United Nations.

    ‘At 00:14 US drone took off from UAE in stealth mode & violated Iranian airspace,’ Zarif tweeted. ‘It was targeted at 04:05 at the coordinates (25°59’43’N 57°02’25’E) near Kouh-e Mobarak.’

    ‘We’ve retrieved sections of the US military drone in OUR territorial waters where it was shot down.’

  • Trump, pictured with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, left, National security adviser John Bolton, center, and White House press secretary Sarah Sanders, is said to have approved military strikes against Iran in retaliation for downing a US drone but pulled back last minute

    Trump, pictured with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, left, National security adviser John Bolton, center, and White House press secretary Sarah Sanders, is said to have approved military strikes against Iran in retaliation for downing a US drone but pulled back last minute

    This grainy black and white footage shows the drone as it plummets from the sky

    This grainy black and white footage shows the drone as it plummets from the sky

    Iran released images purporting to show the fuselage of the wrecked US drone on Friday

    Iran released images purporting to show the fuselage of the wrecked US drone on Friday

    A section of the destroyed warplane released by Iran, amid fears over what Tehran and its allies might glean from its inner workings

    A section of the destroyed warplane released by Iran, amid fears over what Tehran and its allies might glean from its inner workings

    A section of the spy plane's fuselage lies on the floor after it was shot down just after 4am local time on Thursday

    A section of the spy plane’s fuselage lies on the floor after it was shot down just after 4am local time on Thursday

    Debris from the wrecked drone was pictured by Iranian media as Trump asked for talks with the Supreme leader

    Debris from the wrecked drone was pictured by Iranian media as Trump asked for talks with the Supreme leader

    Iran said it had recovered parts of a US spy drone in its territorial waters, after downing the aircraft in a missile strike slammed by President Donald Trump as a "big mistake"

    Iran said it had recovered parts of a US spy drone in its territorial waters, after downing the aircraft in a missile strike slammed by President Donald Trump as a ‘big mistake’

    Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei next to Khordad-3 missile system last month - Trump has reportedly conveyed his demands to speak to the head of state

    Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei next to Khordad-3 missile system last month – Trump has reportedly conveyed his demands to speak to the head of state

     

END

This should make Trump warm and fuzzy: Iran stated that it refrained from shooting down a USA plan with 35 military people on board

(courtesy zerohedge)

Iran Says “It Refrained” From Shooting Down US Plane With 35 People On Board

Following reports that the Trump Administration backed down from a ‘retaliatory strike’ against Iran, the commander of the IRGC offered some helpful “color” that we’re sure will help assuage Washington’s anger.

During a statement on Friday, Sardar Hajizadeh, commander of the Air Force’s Corps of Air Force, revealed that Iran refrained from shooting down an American military plane which it said had 35 people on board. According to Iran, the plane had been flying with the drone that had been shot down.

Iran has insisted it shot down the $100 million surveillance drone as it was flying 8 miles offshore, within the 12 mile barrier separating Iranian and international waters. Trump ominously hinted at a violent reaction during a Thursday press conference before suggesting that the shooting of the dorne could have been a mistake.

end
The FAA issues a no fly zone over the Straits of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman.   Is the uSA preparing for an attack and that is the reason that they do not want any civilian casualties.
(courtesy zerohedge)

FAA Issues No-Fly Zone Above Straits Of Hormuz And Gulf of Oman

While a military confrontation with Iran appears to have been delayed in the last moment by president Trump, who overrode the neocons in his cabinet including Pompeo, Bolton and Haspel, the signal for a Tomahawk launch may come with a tweet from Trump. Which is probably why The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration on Thursday issued an emergency order prohibiting U.S. operators from flying in an overwater area of Tehran-controlled airspace over the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman.

Ethan Klapper

@ethanklapper

New…FAA issues no-fly zone order in Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman for U.S. interests

The agency said it is worried by the ongoing tensions and increased military activity in an area with heavy civil air traffic. The ban will mostly affect flights going from North America to Asia eastwards.

The FAA’s advisory however appears to be ignored by other carriers, with a snapshot from Flightaware showing heavy commercial traffic in the Straits of Hormuz/Gulf of Oman airspace at the moment.

Earlier on Thursday, United Airlines canceled all flights from Newark International Airport in New Jersey to Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport (BOM), India’s primary international airport in Mumbai. The Chicago-based company cited “a thorough safety and security review of our India service through Iranian airspace.”

Earlier, two other major US carriers, American Airlines and Delta Air Lines, said they did not fly over Iranian airspace.

In a separate advisory to operators, FAA said according to flight tracking applications, the nearest civil aircraft was operating within around 45 nautical miles of a U.S. Global Hawk drone when it was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile this week.

“There were numerous civil aviation aircraft operating in the area at the time of the intercept,” FAA said.

The agency said it remained concerned about the escalation of tension and military activity within close proximity to high volume civil aircraft routes as well as Iran’s willingness to use long-range missiles in international airspace with little or no warning.

END
And finally, Michael Snyder on the threat of war
(courtesy Michael Snyder)

Snyder: “Right Now, A Perfect Storm Is Developing All Over The Globe”

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

We could be on the verge of the most cataclysmic war that the Middle East has ever seen.  As you will see below, we are being told that there will be a “measured” U.S. response to the downing of a U.S. Navy drone by Iranian forces (despite Trump’s decision to postpone last night’s strikes, officials say strikes are not off the table).  In other words, we should expect some sort of U.S. military action against Iran to happen soon.  If the Iranians choose not to respond to that attack, that will hopefully be the end of it for a while.  But if the Iranians respond by firing their highly advanced anti-ship missiles at U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf, the Trump administration would feel forced to use overwhelming force in return, and that would likely spark an all-out war in the region.

And in the event of an all-out war, Iran would almost certainly hit Israel with a massive barrage of missiles.  In fact, last month the Iranian Parliament’s vice-speaker Ali Motahhari specifically threatened this sort of an attack

Mr Motahhari told FARS news agency: ‘The US military forces’ deployment in the Persian Gulf is more of the nature of psychological warfare. They are not ready for a war, specially when Israel is within our range.’

Today, Iran possesses a highly sophisticated missile arsenal, and some of those missiles are capable of hitting targets up to 2,500 kilometers away.  For an in-depth examination of Iranian missile capabilities, I would commend a National Interest article entitled “Iran Has Amassed the Largest Ballistic Missile Force in the Middle East”.

Of course if Iran starts firing missiles at Israel, it is inevitable that Israel will start firing missiles back at Iran.  And in such a scenario it is unthinkable that Iran’s proxy Hezbollah would sit quietly on the sidelines.

At this point Hezbollah has accumulated an absolutely massive rocket arsenal in southern Lebanon.  According to the Jerusalem Post, they now possess “more than 150,000 rockets”…

Hezbollah’s massive rocket arsenal of more than 150,000 rockets pose a major threat. These include long-range rockets such as the Zelzal, Fateh 110 and the Fajr, as well as shorter range such as Katyushas. The Fateh 110 has a range of several hundred kilometers.

There is no place in Israel that is out of the range of those rockets.  Without a doubt, Israel’s anti-missile systems are extremely advanced, but if thousands of missiles are fired in a very short period of time Israel won’t be able to intercept them all.

In order to stop the rocket fire completely, Israel would have to invade southern Lebanon on very short notice, and it is quite interesting that the IDF actually just wrapped up a major exercise which simulated a future war with Hezbollah.  The following comes from ABC News

Israel wrapped up its largest military drill in years on Wednesday, with thousands of troops from the army, navy and air force simulating a future war with the militant Lebanese Hezbollah group amid fears that Iran would draw its Shiite proxy into the recent growing tensions in the Persian Gulf.

This absolutely enormous military drill made headlines all over the world, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was even on hand for the conclusion of the exercise

The exercise, which was focused on the country’s north—not far from contested borders with Lebanon and Syria, two countries which Israel has accused Iran’s allies of firing rockets from—was attended by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The leader, who also serves as defense minister, spoke with participating troops of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and issued a warning to those threatening his country.

“I am concluding a major, multi-corps IDF exercise in several areas. I am very impressed by the improvement in readiness, by the fighting spirit of the soldiers and commanders, and mainly by the destructive power of the IDF,” Netanyahu said.

It appears to be inevitable that an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah will happen at some point, and Israel will most definitely win that war.

But the death and destruction caused by tens of thousands of missiles fired by Iran and Hezbollah will be immense, and so we should hope that such a conflict is put off for as long as possible.

Unfortunately, it appears that a full-blown war could begin in the Middle East at any time.  Top congressional leaders were summoned to the White House Situation Room on Thursday, and following that briefing the press was told to soon expect a “measured” U.S. response

Top administration officials and lawmakers have left the White House after a classified briefing lasting over an hour, about Iran’s sudden downing of an American surveillance drone in the Middle East — and a “measured” U.S. response, they suggested, is likely coming soon.

Amid mounting tension between the U.S. and Iran, the White House earlier Thursday invited House and Senate leaders and Democrats and Republicans on the House and Senate Intelligence and Armed Services Committees to meet with President Trump in the White House’s secure Situation Room.

And we almost got that “measured” response on Thursday night.  According to multiple media reports, President Trump approved military strikes against Iran but then pulled back at the last moment…

President Donald Trump approved military strikes against Iran in retaliation for downing a U.S. surveillance drone, but pulled back from launching them Thursday night after a day of escalating tensions.

As late as 7 p.m. Thursday, military and diplomatic officials were expecting a strike, after intense discussions and debate at the White House among the president’s top national security officials and congressional leaders, according to multiple senior administration officials involved in or briefed on the deliberations.

Officials said the president had initially approved attacks on a handful of Iranian targets, like radar and missile batteries.

We should be very thankful for President Trump’s restraint, and hopefully it will continue, because at this moment we are literally on the verge of World War 3 erupting in the Middle East.

Right now, a “perfect storm” is developing all over the globe.  Events are starting to move at a pace that is breathtaking, and it isn’t going to take much to push the planet into a state of absolute chaos.

Once a military conflict with Iran starts, it will be nearly impossible to stop.

The time to stop it is now, and let us hope that President Trump makes the right choices in the days ahead.

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Total global negative yield debt soars by .7 trillion dollars yesterday to a record $13 trillion as deflation grips the globe

(courtesy zerohedge)

Global Negative Yielding Debt Soars By $700 Billion In One Day To Record $13 Trillion

The “deflationary ice age” predicted by SocGen’s Albert Edwards some 25 years ago is upon us.

The one-two punch of a dovish Draghi and Powell unleashing the “deflationary spirits” has resulted not only in the S&P hitting a new all time high, but in an unprecedented flight to safety as investors freak out that a recession may be imminent (judging by the forceful jawboning by central bankers hinting of imminent easing), pushing gold above $1,400 – its highest price since 2013 – and global yields to new all time lows.

As a result, the total notional amount of global debt trading with negative yields soared by $700 billion in just one day, and a whopping $1.2 trillion this week, the biggest weekly increase in at least three years.

This has pushed the amount of negative yielding debt to a new all time high of $13 trillion.

Europe in particular is, for lack of a better word, a disaster.

We won’t paraphrase everything else we said in the context of this very troubling observation (see our latest post from yesterday discussing the surge in (-) yielding debt), we’ll just repeat the big picture summary: such a collapse in yields is not bullish, or indicative of a new golden age for the global economy. Quite the contrary – it signifies that debt investors are more confident than ever that the global growth rate is collapsing and only central bank intervention may possibly delay (not prevent) the world sliding into recession. Worse, rates are set to only drop, because as Rabobank’s Michael Every wrote yesterday “if the Fed do cut ahead then yields fall, more so at the shorter end; but if they don’t cut then yields still fall, but more so at the longer end (now around 2.02%).”

His conclusion: “Either way US (and global) yields are going to fall – which tells its own sad story.

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

i)VENEZUELA/

 

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1307 UP .0013 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.51 UP 0.217 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2647   DOWN   0.0060  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3189 UP .0004 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 13 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1307 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 14.86 POINTS OR 0.50% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 76.72 POINTS OR 0.27%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,50%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 76.72 POINTS OR 0.27%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.86 POINTS OR 0.50%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 50% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 204.22  POINTS OR 0.95%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1394.25

silver:$15.27-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.03% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.54 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 96.66 UP 3 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.58% UP4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.16%  UP 3   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.44%//UP 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.15 DOWN 0 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 171 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.29% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.44% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1339  UP     .0043 or 43 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.50 UP .198 OR YEN DOWN 20  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2712 UP .0005 POUND UP 5  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 37 basis points to 1.3229

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8685    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8693  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8254 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.16%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.06 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.58 UP 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.50 DOWN 13  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 9.71  0.24%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 15.47 POINTS OR .13%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 7.24 POINTS 0.13%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 18.70 POINTS or 0.20%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 27.19 POINTS OR 0.13%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 57.44 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 65.14 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE RISES:    63.28  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.41 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 41 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.29 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  57.62//

 

 

BRENT :  65.34

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.06…   VERY DEADLY//

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.59..VERY DEADLY/

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1368 ( UP 74   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.34 UP .040 (YEN DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.19 DOWN 44 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2741 UP 34  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8239

 

 

the Russian rouble 62.97   DOWN 0.11 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 11 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3210 DOWN 25 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8635  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8645 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.29%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN 34,11 POINTS OR 0.13%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 17.21 POINTS OR 0.13%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.37 CLOSED DOWN .62

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.343%//libor dropping like a stone

 

 

 

FROM 2.410

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY//

Desperate-Doves & Downed-Drones Spark Gold’s Best Week In 3 Years, Stocks & Bonds Gain

Gold!!! Dramatically outperforming since The Fed capitulated…

The market’s response to Powell’s promises this week… It’s Never Enough!!

Global stocks are pushing up near record highs once again (but BAML points out that consensus 12 month forward global EPS growth expectations has turned negative (-0.3%) for first time since Sept’16)

Big week in Chinese stocks with SHCOMP back above the crucial 3000 level (barely)…

 

Spain barely managed gains on the week (despite the world’s central banks all promising moar) but Italy outperformed…

Global negative-yielding debt exploded this week, now at a record $13 trillion market-value…

Not surprising with so much of European sovereign debt now trading below 0…

 

US equity markets love war, love dismal economic data, and love Fed promises of moar liquidity – that’s all there is really…Nasdaq outperformed, Trannies were the laggard but still managed decent gains.

 

Small Caps are unch post-Powell…

And today saw stocks peak at the European close and fade the rest of the day to all close red with Small Caps the biggest losers…weak close as quad witch volumes hit

 

Transactions on S&P 500 stocks spiked on the quadruple witching open, when options and futures on indexes and stocks expire.

“They amplify/exacerbate moves in the markets as institutions update large derivatives positions,” Russ Visch, a technical analyst with BMO Capital Markets.

“My general advice is to be wary of any outsized moves in quad expiry weeks because it may be nothing more than someone getting caught on the wrong side of a trade and/or unwinding a big position.”

S&P is on target for the best June since 1995

Intraday, markets surged on headlines that VP Pence would cancel his China-Bashing speech (which he already had) citing “progress” with China, but that was dismissed by Chinese media demanding all sanctions be dropped before talks could progress. Peter Navarro also took some of the shine off the week when he warned of no deal being a possibility at around 1400ET but that didn’t last long. Still, given that it was a quad witch, the pinning around unchanged today was notable and then an ugly close…

 

The Dow broke above the Jan 2018 high level that has been resistance since…

 

Will it hold?

Bank Stocks are at their weakest relative to the S&P since Sept 2016…

 

VIX decoupled from stocks today as – odd as it may seem – some investors decided to hedge…

 

Global bond yields are collapsing as global stocks soar back to record highs…

 

Treasury yields tumbled in the middle of the week…but rebounded notably today (on thin volumes) leaving 30Y underperforming – unchanged…

 

10Y Yields managed to scramble back above the crucial 2.00% level today as stocks were bid…

 

The yield curve steepened notably on the week (which is the signal for imminent recession as the curve shifts from deep inversion to steepness once again)…

 

Markets are now convinced 100% that The Fed will cut in July (22% chance of 50bps cut and 78% chance of 25bps)

 

The Dollar (DXY) suffered its worst week since Feb 2018 (down over 1%), dumping to its lowest weekly close since March …

 

But most notably, the dollar puked below its 200DMA… (this is the biggest penetration of the 200DMA since May 2017)

 

Yuan mirrored the USD, spiking to six-week highs before fading today…

 

Bloomberg’s Robert Fullem notes that Chinese iron ore prices are soaring but the Australian dollar isn’t, splintering their typical relationship.

 

Bitcoin surged this week, nearing the $10,000 Maginot Line…

Bitcoin futures did get above $10,000 however…

More notably, all September futures have already breached $10k on the crypto native platforms.

 

All the major cryptos gained (shrugging off any FacebookCoin angst)…

Ethereum surged late in the day, topping $295 for the first time since Sept 2018…

 

A weak dollar and safe-haven flows from Iran sent all commodities higher this week…

 

Oil surged this week on Iran tensions, jumping 9.5% – the best weekly gain since Dec 2016 (Trump election reflation euphoria)…

 

Gold is up for the 5th week in a row, topping $1400 with its best week since April 2016, pushing to its highest since Sept 2013…

As Bloomberg’s Ye Xie notes, Gold and real-yields have never been as tightly bound as they are now. That probably means the metal’s rally has squeezed as much as it can from the bond market, which has priced in a fair amount of rate cuts. For bullion to climb further, it’ll need help from the dollar. The 30-day correlation between rates on five-year linkers and gold prices reached -0.79 this week. That’s even tighter than during the global financial crisis. The post-crisis average is -0.3.

The stronger correlation means that buying gold is essentially buying inflation-linked bonds. It’s a bet that real yields will keep falling, which increases the appeal of assets that don’t offer yield. But without a weakening dollar, there’s a limit to the gold rally.

Finally, some chart food for thought…

It’s all about Fun-Durr-Mentals…

Stocks are Cheap…

David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie

How expensive are equities? Price/tangible book at 10.8x is nearly double the historical norm, a record high that is 24% above the dotcom bubble peak and represents a 3 SD event. In a word – froth.

195 people are talking about this

Because all that matters is central-bank-liquidity…

Markets S

 

end

 

i) Market trading/

Treasury

 

MARKET TRADING/LATE MORNING

 

end

 

LATE AFTERNOON

 

ii)Market data/

Not good: USA Mfg PMI plunges to a 10 yr low and not only that but the generally stronger service PMI has the hope sector, the lowest on record

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Manufacturing PMI Plunges To 10-Year Lows, Services ‘Hope’ Lowest On Record

Following (slightly) better-than-expected European PMIs, expectations for US PMIs was for some stabilization after May’s collapse but they did not.

Both preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs for June dropped further, edging closer to contraction:

Flash U.S. Composite Output Index at 50.6 (50.9 in May). 40-month low.

  • Flash U.S. Services Business Activity Index at 50.7 (50.9 in May). 40-month low.
  • Flash U.S. Services PMI Business expectations fall to 57.8 – the lowest reading on record
  • Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 50.1 (50.5 in May). 117-month low.
  • Flash U.S. Manufacturing Output Index at 50.2 (50.7 in May). 37-month low.

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

Recent months have seen a manufacturing-led downturn increasingly infect the service sector.The strong services economy seen earlier in the year has buckled to show barely any expansion in June, recording the second-weakest monthly growth since the global financial crisis.

Business optimism has also become more subdued, with sentiment about the year ahead down to a new series low amid intensifying worries about tariffs, geopolitical risk and slower economic growth in the months ahead.

The labor market is also showing signs of weakening. The survey data for June indicate nonfarm payroll growth of 140k,averageing 150k in the second quarter after a 200k signal for the first three months of the year .

Prices for goods and services meanwhile rose at a slightly increased rate in June, mainly due to tariffs. To illustrate, some two-thirds of all manufacturers attributed some or all of their raw material cost increases to tariffs during the month. However, the inflationary impact of tariffs was offset by a broader softening of demand, which reduced suppliers’ pricing power. The overall rate of input cost inflation in manufacturing eased to a two-year low, while average selling prices for goods and services showed one of the smallest rises seen since late2016.

Finally, Williamson notes:

Business activity edged closer to stagnation in June, expanding at the slowest rate since February 2016 and rounding off a second quarter in which the survey data point to the pace of economic expansion slipping to 1.4%.

So, 50bps rate cut in July?

END
Another sign of a contracting economy.  Homes sales activity is a strong component of GDP..Today existing home sales tumbles year over year for the 15th consecutive month
(courtesy zerohedge)

Existing Home Sales Tumble YoY For 15th Month – Worst Run Since Housing Crisis

After April’s disappointing drop in all segments of the home-sales data, existing home sales were expected to rebound (again) in May and surprised modestly to the upside.

Existing home sales rose 2.5% MoM to 5.34mm in May (and saw a modest upward revision in April)

However, existing home sales have declined on a YoY basis for 15 straight months…

Home purchases advanced across all four regions, led by a 4.7% rise in the Northeast.

First time buyers accounted for 32% of sales nationally, unchanged from the prior month.

Finally, we note that the recent drop in existing home sales suggests a lagged response in mortgage purchase applications… even with rates collapsing…

As lower rates have apparently sparked a surge in prices as median home prices to a new record $277,700 – with a 4.8% YoY surge – the biggest spike since Aug 2018.

“The purchasing power to buy a home has been bolstered by falling mortgage rates, and buyers are responding,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

As Bloomberg notes, recent housing data have offered a mixed picture on the market, with housing starts falling from an April reading that was stronger than initially reported. Homebuilder sentiment deteriorated in June for the first time this year while permits gained, signaling a more robust pipeline of properties.

END

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

SWAMP STORIES

Interesting:  Trump says that the Dept of Justice is investigating whether Obama tapped his phone

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Says DOJ Investigating Whether Obama Tapped His Phone

President Trump on Wednesday said that DOJ investigators are probing whether the Obama administration secretly monitored his telephone communications – a possibility he referred to as “the ultimate,” according to Fox News.

The fact is, they were spying on my campaign, using intelligence agencies to do it. … We’re trying to figure out whether they listened to my calls. That would be the ultimate. We’ll see what happens. If that happens, we’ll probably find out. If they spied on my campaign and they may have, it will be one of the great revelations in history of this country. It will be very interesting. I think we’re gonna find out,” said Trump.

Appearing on Hannity, Trump covered a wide range of subjects related to the 2016 election.

“Take a look at Ukraine,” Trump said, possibly in reference to a Wednesday article by The Hills John Solomon claiming the FBI knew that Paul Manafort’s so-called “Black Ledger” was likely bogus – yet used it anyway to obtain a search warrant on the former Trump campaign manager.

A Ukrainian court ruled in December that senior officials meddled in the 2016 US election when they revealed the alleged existence of the Black Ledger, while in 2017 Politico reported that Ukrainian officials hated Trump – working behind the scenes to try and secure a victory for Hillary Clinton.

Trump told Hannity the episode was hardly surprising, given that the Hillary Clinton campaign and Democratic National Committee (DNC), through the firm Fusion GPS, funded British ex-spy Christopher Steele’s creation of an unverified and largely discredited dossier. The FBI went on to cite the dossier in secret Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) court applications to surveil former Trump aide Carter Page.

“I think it’s a disgrace,” Trump said.

Numerous issues with the Steele dossier’s reliability have surfaced, including several that were brought to the FBI’s attention before it cited the dossier in its FISA application and subsequent renewals. Mueller’s report made plain, for example, that former Trump attorney Michael Cohen did not travel to Prague to conspire with Russian hackers seeking to access Democrat files, as the dossier alleged. –Fox News

So the FBI reportedly knew that both the Steele Dossier and the Black Ledger were dubious accounts – yet used them anyway in violation of FBI policy.

Meanwhile, Trump railed against Congressional Democrats for putting his former communication adviser Hope Hicks “through hell” as she testified in a closed-door session on Capitol Hill earlier Wednesday.

“What’s happened to the Democrats — and in the meantime, they’re not doing any work in Congress,” Trump told Sean Hannity, calling the party “unhinged.”

“They’re not allowed to do that. It’s probably illegal,” Trump said, referring to the leaked pictures of Hicks.Some Democrats complained that Hicks, in her appearance before the House Judiciary Committee, was ordered by the White House to stay quiet about her time as an aide to Trump, citing legal privileges. –Fox News

 

END

It’s Not Over: Judge Approves Special Prosecutor For Jussie Smollett Case In Nautical Smackdown

A Chicago judge on Friday used a nautical analogy to approve a special prosecutor to review how Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx handled the Jussie Smollett case.

The “Empire” actor, who faked a hate crime in order to boost his career and denigrate Trump supporters, avoided prosecution after Foxx’s office dropped all criminal charges against him in a dramatic 11th hour announcement in March. The actor forfeited $10,000 in bail and performed 16 hours of community service at Rev. Jesse Jackson’s “Rainbow/Push” headquarters over two days.

Cook County Judge Michael P. Toobin wrote on Friday;

Jussie Smollett’s case is truly unique among the countless prosecutions heard in this building. A case that purported to have been brought and supervised by a prosecutor serving in the stead of our duly elected State’s attorney, who in fact was appointed to a fictitious office having no legal existence. It is also a case that deviated from the statutory mandate requiring the appointment of a special prosecutor in cases where the State’s Attorney is recused. And finally, it is a case where based upon similar factual scenarios, resulting dispositions and judgments have been deemed void and held for naught.

Here, the ship of the State ventured from its protected harbor without the guiding hand of its captain. There was no master on the bridge to guide the ship as it floundered through uncharted waters. And it ultimately lost its bearings. As with that ship, in the case at hand:

  • There was no duly elected State’s Attorney when Jussie Smollett was arrested;
  • There was no State’s Attorney when Smollett was initially charged;
  • There was no State’s Attorney when Smollett’s case was presented to the grand jury, nor when he was indicted;
  • There was no State’s Attorney when Smollett was arraigned and entered his plea of not guilty; and
  • There was no State’s Attorney in the courtroom when the proceedings were nolle prossed (dismissed) -Judge Michael P. Toobin

As such, Toobin said that “Adherence to the long-standing principles discussed herein mandates that a special prosecutor be appointed to conduct an independent investigation of the actions of any person or office involved in all aspects of the case,” adding that “if reasonable grounds exist to further prosecute Smollett, in the interest of justice the special prosecutor may take such action as may be appropriate to effectuate that result.”

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Charlie De Mar

@CharlieDeMar

BREAKING: Special prosecutor approved in Jussie Smollett case. @cbschicago

Embedded video

Megan Hickey

@MeganHickeyTV

Retired Judge Sheila O’Brien, who brought the motion, “It’s a good day for justice.” @cbschicago

Chicago PD spokesman Anthony Guglielmi tweeted in response to Friday’s news that the department stands “firmly behind the work of detectives in investigating the fabricated incident reported by Jussie Smollett,” adding that they will “fully cooperate with the court appointed special prosecutor.”

Anthony Guglielmi

@AJGuglielmi

We stand firmly behind the work of detectives in investigating the fabricated incident reported by Jussie Smollett & will fully cooperate with the court appointed special prosecutor. pic.twitter.com/bCDF0NYfzP

Controversy erupted in March when texts and emails released by the Cook County State’s Attorney’s Office revealed that Michelle Obama’s former Chief of Staff, Tina Tchen, attempted to have the case transferred to the FBI from the Chicago Police.

“Spoke to the Superintendent Johnson,” Foxx emailed Tchen on Feb. 1, in reference to Chicago Police Superintendent Eddie Johnson. “I convinced him to Reach out to FBI to ask that they take over the investigation.”

Foxx also texted with one of Smollett’s relatives whose name was redacted from the text release, saying: “Spoke to the superintendent earlier, he made the ask … Trying to figure out logistics. I’ll keep you posted.”

Foxx said she recused herself from the case after having conversations with one of Smollett’s relatives before he was charged with disorderly conduct for allegedly faking a hate crime against himself.

Foxx’s top deputy, First Assistant State’s Attorney Joseph Magats, took over the case, and prosecutors ended up dropping all charges a month after Smollett was arrested, after the “Empire” actor performed 16 hours of community service, and agreed to forfeit his $10,000 bail, but did not admit guilt.

Hundreds of emails and text messages later released by Foxx’s office showed two weeks before the charges were dropped, Foxx texted her staff, dismissing him as a “washed-up celeb who lied to cops,” and telling them he was being charged too harshly. –CBS2 Chicago

Meanwhile, Smollett was kicked off of Empire, while Fox announced that the next season will be its last.

end

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

After we transmitted our letter on Wednesday night, gold went berserk, rallying as much as 2.5% (to 1394.91) in Singapore.  Comex gold futures surged 3.6%, the highest level since September 2013.

Gold has been in a 7.75-year consolidation of its move from $251.95 on August 31, 1999 to $1921.15 on September 30, 2011.  It is now breaking out to the upside.

Trump’s attack on Draghi for currency manipulation forced complacent investors and imprudent academics, particularly the over-educated dupes at the Fed, to understand that currency debasement is a primary weapon in trade wars.

Die Welt’s @Schuldensuehner: Looks like the start of a currency war. Euro dropped after dovish Draghi and jumped after dovish Powell. Now trades >$1.13.

WSJ Fed conduit @NickTimiraos: Rich Clarida in 2016: “[I]n a world of global capital flows there will be a limit to how far US rates can diverge from global interest rates without triggering volatility in markets and a much stronger dollar that reduces exports.”

World Looms Large in Fed Rate Plans

Fed is world’s de facto central bank and world seems to be in trouble

    Like it or not, the Federal Reserve is the world’s central bank. Thus, the Fed is now signaling it will likely cut rates in coming months, not because the U.S. is headed into recession, but because shadows are growing over the rest of the world…   https://www.wsj.com/articles/world-looms-large-in-fed-rate-plans-11561023003

BoJ’s Kuroda says extra stimulus an option to boost inflation

Japan’s central bank stands pats as economy is losing momentum

The BOJ board voted 7-2 to keep its ultra-easy monetary policy program in place, including increasing its holdings of Japanese government bonds at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen ($738 billion). Short-term interest rates were kept at minus 0.1% while long-term interest rates were guided to around 0%…

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/BOJ-s-Kuroda-says-extra-stimulus-an-option-to-boost-inflation

The Bank of England’s MPC voted unanimously to keep its benchmark rate at 0.75%.

https://www.pensionsage.com/pa/BoE-MPC-votes-unanimously-to-maintain-bank-rate-at-0-75pc.php

Sven Henrich @NorthmanTrader: Can we just skip to the part when central banks own all stocks, the top 1% own all land, and MMT governments print guaranteed incomes for the rest so they can play Fortnite 35 while AI bots drone deliver burgers and toys to their 3D printed homes?

@NorthmanTrader: Fun historic fact: Every single time the Fed cut rates when unemployment was below 4% a recession immediately ensued & unemployment shot to 6%-7%. Again: Every. single. time.

We’ve said it before and we must reiterate it now.  Central banks can get away with promiscuous monetary schemes until gold and then bonds revolt.

Gold is now in revolution against central banks.  Historically, bonds eventually align with gold.  However, central banks and governments have cornered the bond market.  Gold might have to carry the pitchforks and torches by itself for quite some time.

Gold is telling the world that a critical mass of investors is allocating central bank liquidity to gold because the liquidity is unlikely to be economically effective.  This means financial assets, including currencies, are over-valued and too risky.

Like any bull market, psychology and momentum build and become self-reinforcing.  Soros calls it ‘reflexivity’.  Bullishness begets more bullishness ad infinitum and also alters psychology about fundamental issues.  As the trend builds, humans manufacture reasons to be bullish and eventually irrationally exuberant (excess global savings, Mexico turning the corner, .com mania, yada, yada, yada).

When gold is in a robust rally, pundits and the financial media have to produce fundamental reasons for the move.  Inevitably with gold, it is lack of confidence in, take your pick: forex, bonds, central banks, politicians, the world or all of the above.  The Street and media will create the self-reinforcing loop.

Central banks and Keynesian politicians have always detested gold because it can usurp their scams.  It is also why central banks and sovereigns have engaged in gold rigging schemes to the downside for decades.  They will do it again in the coming weeks and months – because they have no choice.

For years, Street denizens have asked the question: What is the end game for central banks after 10 years of record promiscuity?  The Fed and (probably) the PBoC tried to exit the QE roach motel.  They were unable to do so.  Gold, and possibly bonds, will be the major factors in the end game.

It is far too early to guess if or when bonds will join gold in the revolt.  The longer that central banks maintain their bond corner, the higher gold should go and the worse the end game should be.

The vision of more QE and even lower or more negative rates forced the known world to exit cash on Friday.  Gold roared, the S&P 500 Index hit an all-time high, commodities soared and bonds rallied a tad.

Obviously, today’s options and futures’ expiration aided and abetted the equity rally on Thursday.

BBG: China National Gold Said to Weigh Bid for Canada’s IAMGOLD Corp.  [The AU rush in on]

@boes_: December 2021 eurodollar yield at 1.58% today is lowest since July 2016. 9 bps away from the record low set that month of 1.49%

With all major central banks in or near panic pumping mode, the US-China trade talks are now the major dynamic for stocks.  We have opined numerous times over the past several months that any US-China trade deal should generate a significant peak for stocks.  No deal should provoke a serious decline.

China’s Xi Jinping arrives in North Korea on a visit ‘big on symbolism’

China’s President Xi Jinping arrived in Pyongyang on Thursday morning for a state visit to North Korea — the first by a Chinese state leader in 14 years…

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/20/china-president-xi-jinping-on-state-visit-to-north-korea-kim-jong-un.html

China’s leaders have avoided visiting North Korea for 14 years in order to obfuscate the fact that China largely runs North Korea like one of its provinces.  With critical US trade talks about to commence, China and NoKo must coordinate strategy, tactics and message.

Iran warns ‘it’s ready for war’ after shooting down US drone as Middle East tensions rise

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9334596/iran-shoots-down-us-spy-drone-tensions-gulf/

@AP: US official tells AP that US drone was shot down by an Iranian missile in international airspace over Strait of Hormuz

The drone downing is the latest Iranian provocation.  US sanctions are crippling Iran and fomenting unrest among its citizens.  Ergo, Iranian officials are trying to provoke the US to strike them.

US Sec of State @SecPompeo: We’ve imposed the toughest sanctions ever on the Iranian regime. Our pressure is working. We’ll continue this line of effort to convince Iran not to move forward with their nuclear program, development of missiles, & the other malign activities they’ve been engaged in globally.

Truckers warn of a ‘bloodbath’ as trucking companies go bankrupt and slash profit expectations

Freight rates have dipped year over year for six months straight… Loads on the spot market, in which retailers and manufacturers buy trucking capacity as they need it, rather than through a contract, have fallen by a chilling 62.6% in May year over year… [This is an excellent economic indicator.]

    “Global trade has slowed in recent months and leading indicators point to ongoing deceleration in global trade near-term,” Alan Graf, FedEx’s chief financial officer and executive vice president, said in a December report… “Because trucking participates in all phases of manufacturing, it increases as manufacturing starts to ramp up, giving it leading indication on economic growth,” Steve Tam, the vice president at ACT Research, told Business Insider.

https://www.businessinsider.com/truckers-warn-bloodbath-companies-bankrupt-lower-expectations-2019-6

Japan has more people over the age of 80 than under the age of 10

https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/yikes-japan-has-more-people-over-the-age-of-80-than-under-the-age-of-10-25304/

Socialist programs, like Social Security, are Ponzi Schemes that rely on an increasing number of people paying in to offset those receiving benefits.  Low, let alone declining birth rates, dooms these schemes.

@TruthGundlach: Moment of truth for DXY [Dollar Index]. Closed today right on top of 9 month uptrend and just above 200-day MA.  And gold broke out above its huge base.

Today – ESUs peaked an hour before the NYSE open yesterday.  This number is today’s upside target.  If ESUs close below the 2964.50 peak, it would suggest that a retrenchment for stocks is due. The reason that the S&P 500 Index is the only major index that closed at an all-time high is the upward expiry pressure and manipulation of the expiry SPY options and the calls on the S&P 500 Index futures.

@BBCWorld: Biden refuses to apologise for working with racist senators

It is the ugliest row so far in this Democratic race for the White House… Mr Biden fondly recalled his working relationship after joining the Senate in the 1970s with two southern Democratic senators, Mississippi’s James Eastland and Georgia’s Senator Herman Talmadge.  Mr Biden, 76, said at a fundraiser in New York City that Talmadge had called him “son” but never “boy”, referring to how racist whites addressed black men at the time.  But some of his rivals among more than 20 Democratic candidates in the 2020 field – including black senators Cory Booker and Kamala Harris – pounced on his remarks, demanding he apologise…  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-48696126?ocid=socialflow_twitter

ABC: Biden sidesteps questions about his son’s foreign business dealings but promises ethics pledge

More than once, after his father engaged in diplomacy on behalf of the United States in foreign countries, Hunter Biden conducted business in the same country…

    The ethics pledge follows renewed questions about a pair of overseas business opportunities involving Hunter Biden – one in Ukraine, another in China – that already have begun to generate political attacks from Joe Biden’s conservative critics. Ethics experts interviewed by ABC News said these are legitimate questions about possible past and future conflicts of interest

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-sidesteps-questions-sons-foreign-business-dealings-promises/story

GOP strategist @Surabees: In fairness to Joe, having to explain how his son ended up with 1.5 billion dollars from China while he was VP would be a nearly impossible job for anyone.

@GeorgePapa19: Joe Biden was trying to get in on some energy deals in Cyprus illicitly. He was muscling officials there during his only trip to the island as VP. He’s not just Shanghai Joe, or sleepy Joe, he’s the most corrupt guy running for the office.

Yesterday, Biden attacked Trump’s Iran policy.  This invites renewed scrutiny of Obama’s shipment of pallets of cash ($1.7B) to Iran in the darkness of night that went down like an illicit payoff.

Rod Rosenstein Penned Mysterious Third ‘Scope Memo’ For Robert Mueller

Dated October 20, 2017, its contents remain a secret. But its very existence suggests something was going on behind the scenes in the relationship of Mueller and his supervisors at the Justice Department…

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/06/revealed-rod-rosenstein-penned-mysterious-third-scope-memo-for-robert-mueller/

Some pundits believe that a high official or two that were involved in Spygate pressured Rosenstein to engage in untoward action by holding his proposal to covertly tape Trump over Rod’s head.

Rep. Devin Nunes believes Rosenstein Scope Memos were CYA memos to extend Mueller’s investigation beyond Russia collusion.

The San Joaquin Valley Sun @SJVSun: Following the lead of Richmond, Sacramento and Stockton, a new proposal would have @CityofFresno pay violent criminals to refrain from shootings or other violent acts. [We have to buy more gold.  The end is near!]

end

Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog

(courtesy Greg Hunter)

Iran Drone Crisis, Illegals Removed, Pretend Economy

By Greg Hunter on June 21, 2019

Iran shot down an American surveillance drone. Iran says it was in its airspace. The U.S. says it was over the Strait of Hormuz in international airspace. Is America going to go to war over an unmanned drone? There are many on both sides that want war and probably equally as many who don’t. Trump is calling it a big mistake.

President Trump has instructed DHS to start removing millions of illegal aliens. The Left is up in arms about removing what some say are simply illegal voters to help them win in 2020. Is this a way Trump is going to fight massive illegal alien voter fraud? Looks like it.

America and the global economy has been propped up ever since the Great Recession of 2008. Now, the economy looks to be slipping, and the elite are starting money printing and rate cutting all over again. Is it going to work again? Rising prices in the gold and silver market are signaling no.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

-END-

Well that about does it for tonight

I will see you on MONDAY night

H

 

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