JUNE 24 /GOLD CONTINUES TO SHINE, RISING BY $18.00 AS THE CROOKS SCRAMBLE TO COVER THEIR SHORTS//SILVER RISES BY 11 CENTS TO $15.40//THE WAR OF WORDS BETWEEN CHINA AND THE USA ESCALATE//TRUMP ISSUES MORE SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN AND THIS TIME AGAINST THEIR SUPREME LEADER AND LATER THIS WEEK ON JAVID//PLUS ONE SWAMP STORY AND MANY OTHERS.

 

 

GOLD: $1414.00  UP $18.00 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $15,40 UP 11 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)//

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1419.50

 

silver:  $15.44

We have been witnessing gold and silver rise as I promised you it would once it pierced through $1350 gold/and $15.06 silver.

I would like to point out to you that the derivatives underwritten by the banks against gold and silver are now way offside and you can bet the farm that the banks are burning profusely inside their banking establishments. The crooks have leased and hypothecated just about every oz of gold and silver 500 x over and maybe in more.  Ladies and Gentlemen: your end game is now being played out

 

 

 

YOUR DATA…

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 0/2

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 2 NOTICE(S) FOR 200 OZ (0.0063 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  2306 NOTICES FOR 230600 OZ  (7.173 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JUNE

 

 

102 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 510,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 528 for   2,640,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10959 UP 56 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10,932 UP 26

 

 

 

 

end

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL A HUGE  SIZED 7362 CONTRACTS FROM 236,657 DOWN TO 229,295 WITH THE 11 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. HOWEVER THE LOSS IN CONTRACTS WAS DUE TO THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS (PLUS COMEX SHORT COVERING) AS WE NOW ARE EXACTLY ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE IN THE JULY SILVER CONTRACT

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

0 FOR JUNE, 1595 FOR JULY. 0 FOR AUGUST, 0 FOR SEPT, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1595 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1595 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1595 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 7.97 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 11 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.640 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

WE HAD SOME SHORT COVERING AT THE SILVER COMEX LAST NIGHT..AND MAJOR SPREADING ACCUMULATION.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JUNE:

41,187 CONTRACTS (FOR 16 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 41,187 CONTRACTS) OR 205.905 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2574 CONTRACTS OR 12.87 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JUNE:  205.905 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 29.41% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1076.70   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 7362, WITH THE 22 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY(.WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS BEING THE CHIEF CULPRIT IN THE DECLINE..) THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1595 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS WILL RESUME THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES FOR SILVER ONCE THE JUNE CONTRACT COMMENCES IN EARNEST….

TODAY WE LOST A GOOD SIZED: 5767 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1595 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 7362  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS SUPPOSED LACK OF DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A  11 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.29 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.147 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 164% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 102 NOTICE(S) FOR 510,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE   2.640 MILLION OZ//
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING:  WE NO DOUBT HAD HUGE ACTIVITY OF SPREADING LIQUIDATION IN SILVER TODAY AS TOTAL OI  COLLAPSED (IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD OI INCREASE)

 

 

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCHED TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL 1217 CONTRACTS, TO 572,893 ACCOMPANYING THE $2.90 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS STOPPED, THESE SPREADERS HAVE ALREADY MORPHED INTO SILVER AND THEY ARE INTO THE LIQUIDATION PHASE OF THEIR OPERATION. THUS THE GAIN IN OI FOR GOLD IS REAL AS INVESTORS ARE MASSIVELY POURING INTO THE GOLD SECTOR . \TODAY IS THE 2ND DAY IN A ROW WHERE THERE IS A HUGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE PRELIMINARY AND FINAL OI NUMBERS IN GOLD. 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 11,332 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS, AUGUST 2019: 11,332 CONTRACTS, DEC>  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 572,893.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,549 CONTRACTS: 1,217 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 11,332 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 12,549 CONTRACTS OR 1,254,900 OZ OR 39.03 TONNES.  FRIDAY WE HAD A SMALL  GAIN OF $2.90 IN GOLD TRADING.AND WITH THAT SMALL GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 39.03  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER.

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE : 160,494 CONTRACTS OR 16,049,400 oz OR 499.20 TONNES (16 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 10,030 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 499.20 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 499.20/3550 x 100% TONNES =14.06% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     2,750.67 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE..EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS RISING EXPONENTIALLY THIS MONTH. (ALREADY AT 500 TONNES)

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 1217 WITH THE SMALL PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK ON FRIDAY($2.90)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 11,332 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 11,332 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 12,549 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

11,322 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 1,217 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 39.03 TONNES). ..AND THIS INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.90 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE  HAD ZERO PRESENCE OF SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN GOLD  ///TODAY/

 

 

 

we had:  2 notice(s) filed upon for 200 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $2.90 ON FRIDAY AND $18.00 TODAY//

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: (THIS OCCURRED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT)

A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 34.93 TONNES

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.03 TONNES

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:

 

NO CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO SILVER INVENTORY  AT THE SILVER SLV:

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 7362 CONTRACTS from 236,657 DOWN TO 229,295 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER AND STOPPED THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS IN GOLD

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 1595 CONTRACTS FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 0  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1595 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 7362  CONTRACTS TO THE 1595 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A HUGE LOSS OF 5767 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WHICH NO DOUBT WAS CAUSED BY THE LIQUIDATION OF SPREADER COMEX CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 28.87 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY AND NOW 2.640 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE.

 

 

RESULT: A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 22 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1595 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.17 POINTS OR 0.21%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 39.29 POINTS OR 0.14%   /The Nikkei closed UP 27.,35 POINTS OR 0.13%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .17%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8766 /Oil UP TO 57.84 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.16 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8666 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8782 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TR

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 China/Chinese affairs

i)China/USA

Nouriel Roubini outlines the 3 possible scenarios facing the USA and China in the trade conflict

a very important read..

(courtesy Nouriel Roubini)

ii)CHINA/USA FED EX

Again important documents go astray after Fed Ex misses another delivery of a Huawei pkg.

( zerohedge)

iii)China/USA
China now slams Pompeo as we approach the day for trad talks. China states that Pompeo can no longer play a role as top USA diplomat
( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)FRANCE

 

A good commentary by Gatestone’s Meotti on the divisiveness of France.  On one side are the wealthy and the other, the poor.  This was brought out by the Islamization of France.

a good read..

(courtesy Meotti/Gatestone)

ii)ECB

Are we about to witness a “Mutiny on the Bounty ” at the ECB?

(courtesy Wolf Richter/.WolfStreet)

iii)Not wishing a war just not yet, Brussels is delaying the fines to Italy for their budget deficit. Italian yields nowhit one yr lows

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Iran/Saturday.

A very important commentary from Tom Luongo as to the real scoop behind the Iranian drone attack and the mine attack on those two tankers.  It is well worth your time to read his thoughts.

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

 

ii)IRAN/USA

Trump initiates a secret cyber attack on Iran and especially against an intelligence outfit which is part of the Iranian National Guard.  No doubt that Iran is trying to do the same thing to the USA
(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)Russia/Iran/USA Europe

On the weekend, Russia announces that it will help provide Iran with oil and banking.  You will recall that the USA will not allow Iran to the use the SWIFT system which is used to pay for goods.  If Europe fails to launch its dollar evading SPV Instex system, then Russia will come to Iran’s aid.
(zerohedge)

iv)Iran/USA

Robert H email to me on the weekend:

a must read….

(courtesy Robert H)

v)Iran/USA

Trump imposes sanctions on Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei. That should be fun. It looks like 80% of Iran’s economy is now subject to sanctions.
(courtesy zerohedge)

vi)TURKEY

 

You will recall that Turkey was going to have a redo on the election held in March which was won by a slim margin by Imamoglu, an opponent of the ruling AKP held by Erdogan and his associates.  Well the election was held on the weekend and Erdogan’s AKP lost big time
( zerohedge)

vii)MIDDLE EAST/USA 

Although bold, the Palestinians just do not want peace.  Israel is a booming nation  and if I were the Palestinians I would give my eye teeth to be next to Israel as they would proper with a huge number of jobs.  Israel is aleader is technology especially in the development of semi conductor chips  etc..
(courtesy Sara Carter)

viii)Despite Trump angry at protecting the shipping lanes despite zero compensation, he is still sending in more warships to the area.  Pompeo signals that there will be a international coalition plus new sanctions against a crumbling economy inside Iran.

(zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

i)VENEZUELA/

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)The world has now grown in negative yielding bonds to the tune of 13 trillion dollars and obviously for this to hap[pen something must be wrong.  Yet the mass media has always complained that gold does not yield an interest rate.  Actually it does, if doorknobs lease gold.
(courtesy Haigh/Bloomberg/GATA)
ii)Michael Oliver has Kingworldnews commented correctly that gold started to rise before the dollar fell( GATA/Kingworldnews)iii)An excellent commentary today from Michael Kosares..well worth reading..(mike Kosares/GATA)iv)A new book which I am going to get explaining how Switzerland has handled itself in gold form the time of the Nazis to now( Dominique Soguel dit Picard/GATA)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

 

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

II)MARKET TRADING/USA

 

 

ii)Market data/USA

Although a soft entry data point, it certainly gives us a good idea as to what is going on th the USA economy. The Dallas Fed is generally the strongest of the Fed manufacturing reports.  It tells us manufacturing strength in the Dallas Fort Worth area.  It went from positive 5.3 to negative 12.1 in one month  (very contractionary)

(zerohedge)

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Over 400 pilots have joined a class action lawsuit against Boeing accusing the company of an “unprecedented cover up”of “known design flaws” on their top selling Boeing 737 Max.

(courtesy zerohedge)

b)Trump is correct: why is the USA protecting the shipping lanes in the Gulf for zero compensation.

(zerohedge)

SWAMP STORIES

Trump throws Bolton under the bus exactly what Tom Luongo thought he would do
(courtesy zerohedge)
E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
end
LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 1,217 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 572,893 ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL RISE OF $2.90 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 11,322 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

0 FOR JUNE ’19: 0 CONTRACTS , AUG; 11,322 CONTRACTS: DEC: 0   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  11,322 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 12,549 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 11,322 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 1,217 COMEX CONTRACTS WITH THE SMALL PRICE INCREASE.  THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  12,549 CONTRACTS OR 1,254,900 OZ OR 39.03 TONNES.

 

We are now in the  active contract month of JUNE and here the open interest stands at 163 CONTRACTS as we LOST 72 contracts.  We had  86 notices filed yesterday so we  gained another of 14 contracts or 1400 oz of gold that will stand for delivery as there appears to be some gold at the comex  as they will now try their luck on finding the fast vanishing supplies of physical gold over here.  The next contract month is the non active month of July and here the OI FELL by 122 contracts DOWN to 1187 contracts.  The next big active month for deliverable gold is August and here the OI FELL by a CONSIDERABLE 3507 CONTRACTS (DESPITE THE PRELIMINARY NUMBER OF OI CONTRACTS WAS UP 8,325 contracts) DOWN to 422,008.   WE HAVE WITNESSED ANOTHER HUGE CRIME SCENE WITH RESPECT TO  GOLD WITH THE HUGE DIFFERENCE IN PRELIMINARY AND FINAL COMEX OI NUMBERS.

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 2 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  200 OZ. (0.0063 TONNES)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 7362 CONTRACTS FROM 229,535 DOWN TO 229 295 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A 22 CENT FALL IN PRICING.//FRIDAY…AS THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION COMMENCED ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE..

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.  HERE WE HAVE 102 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 34 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 35 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 1 CONTRACT OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL ATTEMPT TO STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

THE NEXT MONTH AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY.  HERE THE OI FELL BY 18,887 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 74,780, AS WE START TO GET READY FOR THE ACTIVE AND STRONG JULY SILVER DELIVERY MONTH.  WE GAINED 31 CONTRACTS OF OI FOR AUGUST TO STAND AT 944. THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 10,576 CONTRACTS UP TO 106,169 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 102 notice(s) filed for 510,000 OZ for the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 337,634  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  537,776  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JUNE/GOLD

June 24/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
NIL oz
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz  

nil

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

2031.684 OZ

MANFRA

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
2 notice(s)
 200 OZ
(0.0063 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
161 contracts
(16100 oz)
0.5007 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2306 notices
230400 OZ
7.173 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into Manfra: 2031.684  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 2031.684  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ tiny amount  arrived   today

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i ) out of Manfra:  2031.684 oz

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 2031.684   oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today

FOR THE JUNE 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 2 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2306) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JUNE. (163 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (2 x 100 oz per contract) equals 246,700 OZ OR 7.6734 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (2306 x 100 oz)  + (163)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2 x 100 oz )which equals 246,700 oz standing OR 7.6734 TONNES in this  active delivery month of JUNE.

We GAINED XX  contracts or an additional 1400 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. Somebody was in need of physical gold badly on this side of the pond.

 

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 10.043 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 7.6734 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  322,910.634 oz or  10.043 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,693,837.234 oz 239.31 tonnes

 

 

 

 OPEN INTERESTS FOR THE UPCOMING JUNE 2019 CONTRACT VS JUNE 2018

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE INITIAL JUNE 2018 CONTRACT WE HAD A HUGE 32.152 TONNES STAND. (VS 7.6734 TONNES TODAY/JUNE 2019)

HOWEVER BY MONTH’S END ONLY 21.56 TONNES EVENTUALLY STOOD AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.  AS YOU CAN SEE, THE CROOKS ARE FOLLOWING THE SAME FORMAT OF MORPHING VS LAST YEAR AS ONLY GOLD VAPOUR SEEMS TO BE PHYSICALLY PRESENT AT THE COMEX AND LONGS MUST TRY THEIR LUCK IN LONDON.

IN THE LAST 32 MONTHS 117 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF June

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
june 24 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 42,901.340 oz
Brinks
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
102
CONTRACT(S)
(510,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 528 contracts

2,640,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) out of Scotia: 40,074.440 oz

 

ii) Out of Brinks: 2,826.90 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total 42,901.340   oz

 

we had 1 adjustments :

i) Out of CNT:  603,268.029 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of CNT

 

 

total dealer silver:  86.515 million

total dealer + customer silver:  304.571 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JUNE 2019. contract month is represented by 102 contract(s) FOR 510,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 528 x 5,000 oz = 2,640,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE. (102) and the number of notices served upon today (102 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JUNE/2019 contract month: 528(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE( 102) number of notices served upon today (102)x 5000 oz equals 2,640,000 oz of silver standing for the JN contract month.

WE GAINED 1 CONTRACT OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.  IT SEEMS THAT SOMEBODY WAS BADLY IN NEED OF PHYSICAL SILVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 102 notice(s) filed for 510,000 OZfor the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  229,295 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 236,657 CONTRACTS..(we no doubt had considerable spreading activity as they are now starting to accumulate in silver)

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 236,657 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 1,118 million  OZ 169%% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.95% June 24/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.35% to NAV (june 24/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.95%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.90 TRADING 13.31/DISCOUNT 4.25

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.00 A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 34.93 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.03 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD UP $  2.90, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT: 764.10 TONNES

June 20/WITH GOLD UP $47.95, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONES

JUNE 18/JUNE 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

 

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 14/ WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

june 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.70 TONNES

JUNE 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.65 CENTS TODAY: A TINY CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .24 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.42 TONNES

june 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

jUNE 6/WITH GOLD UP  $8.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $6.00 TODAY/STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

JUNE 4/WITH GOLD UP 0.85 TODAY: A MONSTROUS PAPER GAIN OF 16.44 TONNES/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.65 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD UP $17.50 TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE, A DEPOSIT OF 2.35 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//

MAY 31/WITH GOLD UP $17.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES

MAY 30: WITH GOLD UP $6.40 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES

MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES

MAY 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES

MAY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.81 TONNES

MAY 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY: A STRANGE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FORM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738,81 TONNES

MAY 22//WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: WE HAD A GOOD 1.52 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 739.69 TONNES

 

MAY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.65 TODAY: A SURPRISE 2.00 TONNES WERE ADDED  TO THE GLD GOLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.17 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 A HUGE 2.96 TONNE DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.17 TONNES

MAY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.50: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.23 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 15/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

MAY 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45 TODAY: STRANGE!! THE CROOKS DECIDED TO DEPOSIT A HUGE 3.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JUNE 24/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 799.03 tonnes

*IN LAST 616 TRADING DAYS: 134.73 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 516 TRADING DAYS: A NET 30.90 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 20/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 18 WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP XXX CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.413 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 11/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 12 CENTS, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 9 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZE DEPOSIT OF 630,087 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.396 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.434 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 4/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//

MAY 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 422,000 OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ/

May 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ///

MAY 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ/

MAY 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 22/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 311.616 MILLION OZ

MAY 21: WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ

MAY 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.185 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY VAULTS:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ//

MAY 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ//

MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV  INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.031 MILLION OZ//  THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ.

MAY 14/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

 

 

JUNE 24/2019:

 

Inventory 319.819 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.07/ and libor 6 month duration 2.22

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .15

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.93%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.20

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.27

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

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Iran Says It Will Confront Any U.S. Threat, Trump Eyes New Sanctions 

World is Crazy and the Dollar is Lower. Gold is Above $1,400 for First Time in Years

Watch video here

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Massive Short Squeeze in the Gold Market Continues in Japan as Scramble for Physical Metal Vaults the Price of Gold Above $1,400

LBMA Gold Prices (AM/ PM Fix – USD, GBP & EUR)

21-Jun-19 1388.35 1397.15, 1095.96 1101.93 & 1228.55 1233.12
20-Jun-19 1381.65 1379.50, 1086.25 1087.74 & 1222.90 1221.27
19-Jun-19 1342.40 1344.05, 1066.67 1066.64 & 1198.36 1199.43
18-Jun-19 1344.55 1341.35, 1073.22 1070.67 & 1201.89 1198.09
17-Jun-19 1333.20 1341.30, 1059.49 1065.13 & 1188.81 1193.09
14-Jun-19 1352.45 1351.25, 1069.79 1070.33 & 1200.03 1201.80
13-Jun-19 1335.80 1335.90, 1054.21 1052.69 & 1182.85 1184.81
12-Jun-19 1336.65 1332.35, 1049.27 1045.76 & 1179.99 1177.26
11-Jun-19 1322.65 1324.30, 1040.53 1041.30 & 1168.96 1170.42
10-Jun-19 1328.60 1328.60, 1046.94 1048.66 & 1175.41 1175.94
07-Jun-19 1334.30 1340.65, 1049.16 1052.14 & 1184.19 1184.60

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
GATA//IMPORTANT GOLD STORIES COURTESY OF CHRIS POWELL
The world has now grown in negative yielding bonds to the tune of 13 trillion dollars and obviously for this to hap[pen something must be wrong.  Yet the mass media has always complained that gold does not yield an interest rate.  Actually it does, if doorknobs lease gold.
(courtesy Haigh/Bloomberg/GATA)

And they scoff that gold doesn’t pay interest, though leasing it does

 Section: 

The World Now Has $13 Trillion of Debt With Below-Zero Yields

By Adam Haigh
Bloomberg News
Thursday, June 20, 2019

The universe of negative-yielding bonds grew about $1.2 trillion this week after dovish messages from central banks in Europe and the U.S., pushing the total past $13 trillion for the first time.

Joining the club of government debt with 10-year yields below zero this week were Austria, Sweden, and France. Japanese and German rates plumbed fresh all-time lows amid a global bond rally that even got Wall Street pondering life with Treasuries yields under 1%.

The message from the markets is that there are problems out there that central banks, not just the Fed, are now responding to,” Ed Hyman, Evercore ISI chairman, told Bloomberg TV.

In Europe, another notable milestone was reached this week. Yields on Danish debt due to mature 20 years from now dropped to a record low, leaving the entire curve within an inch of turning negative. Some 40% of global bonds are now yielding less than 1%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-21/the-world-now-has-13-…

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

Michael Oliver has Kingworldnews commented correctly that gold started to rise before the dollar fell

(courtesy GATA/Kingworldnews)

Gold was rising even before dollar started falling, Michael Oliver tells KWN

 Section: 

11:25a ET Saturday, June 22, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewed at King World News, Michael Oliver of MSA Research says that gold has been rising in recent months without any weakness in the U.S. dollar, and now the dollar index is breaking down, which, he expects, will elevate gold and gold mining stocks even more. The interview is 14 minutes long and can be heard at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/michael-oliver-6-22-2019/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

An excellent commentary today from Michael Kosares..well worth reading..

(mike Kosares/GATA)

Mike Kosares: This has been and is likely to remain gold’s century

 Section: 

12:55p ET Saturday, June 22, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Investment-wise the 21st century so far has belonged to gold, USAGold’s Mike Kosares writes today, as the monetary metal has quietly outperformed equities, though equities have gotten most of the attention.

Kosares concludes: “The question becomes whether an investment that has performed so well in the past is likely to perform equally well in the future. Though nothing in the world of finance and economics is certain, we rest the bullish case for gold on the understanding that none of the economic and financial system problems that created a positive price environment for gold over the last nearly 19 years has been removed from consideration. In fact, a case could be made that they have only intensified — and dangerously so.”

Kosares’ commentary is headlined “Gold’s Century” and it’s posted at USAGold here:

https://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/golds-century/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

We now have another entity acknowledging the likelihood of gold price suppression

(Peak Prosperity/GATA)

Peak Prosperity acknowledges likelihood of gold price suppression

 Section: 

4:25p ET Saturday, June 22, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

With Adam Taggart’s essay about gold today, Peak Prosperity finally acknowledges “it’s highly likely that the price has been suppressed.” Who’s next — Pierre Lassonde? Mark Carney? The Financial Times? The Economist? Even the World Gold Council?

Better late than never, we may suppose, even if this evokes the observation by Mad magazine’s Alfred E. Neuman that some people are like blisters — they show up right after the work’s been done.

Taggart’s commentary is headlined “‘Somebody’ Finally Cares About Gold” and it’s posted at Peak Prosperity here:

https://www.peakprosperity.com/somebody-finally-cares-about-gold/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

A new book which I am going to get explaining how Switzerland has handled itself in gold form the time of the Nazis to now

(courtesy Dominique Soguel dit Picard/GATA)

From Nazis to refineries: How Switzerland has handled the world’s gold

 Section: 

By Dominique Soguel-dit-Picard
Swiss Info, Bern, Switzerland
Sunday, June 23, 2019

A new book exposes the dark history of gold laundering in Switzerland and the modern challenge of cleaning up a lucrative industry. This is the story of the Alpine nation’s dominance over global gold trade.

Written by Swiss anti-corruption watchdog Mark Pieth, “Gold Laundering — The Dirty Secrets of the Gold Trade and How to Clean Up” — shines a light on the key players in the gold industry, the risks associated with large-scale versus artisanal mining, and the shortcomings of various international regulations and certification schemes.

How did we get here? In a discussion with swissinfo.ch, Pieth explained how Switzerland came to be at the heart of a highly profitable but opaque trade. These are some of the key historical moments in the Swiss gold story, according to him. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/historical-book_from-nazis-to-refineries–h…

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end
GOLD//SILVER TRADING TODAY:

 

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8766/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8782   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 6.17 POINTS OR 0.21%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 39.29 POINTS OR 0.14%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 27.35 POINTS OR 0.13%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED 

 

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 96.05/Euro RISES TO 1.1371

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.15/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.28/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.84 and Brent: 65.16

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.31%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.12% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.41%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.53: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.42

3k Gold at $1409.20 silver at: 14.38   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 15/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.89

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 65 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.28 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9749 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1107 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.31%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.03% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.53%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7520..

S&P Futures Trade Near Record High As European Stocks, Dollar Stumble Ahead Of G20

S&P futures levitated on Monday, rising to a high of 2,962 and just shy of a new record, alongside buoyant Asian stocks while European shares slumped as the Stoxx 600 Index reversed an earlier gain following the third profit warning from Daimler, and a slump in German business confidence; the dollar dropped to three-month lows as hopes waned for progress in China-U.S. trade talks at this week’s G20 meeting, while Trump was expected to announce even harsher sanctions against Iran today.

The European Stoxx 600 index fell 0.2%, reflecting losses in Paris and Milan. Stocks in London were little changed. Germany’s export-sensitive DAX fell 0.5% after a profit warning by Daimler caused its shares to drop nearly 5%.

Europe’s woes were compounded by the latest slump in German business confidence as trade tensions weighed on manufacturers. The June Ifo Business Confidence dropped to 97.4, its lowest level since late 2014, while an index of expectations also worsened, even though the news was largely priced in and the euro barely moved on the news and was up 0.2% at $1.1392 in early trading.

“It could get worse, maybe not much worse but a little,” said Ifo President Clemens Fuest in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It’s justified to at least postpone any tightening of monetary policy. But I don’t think further easing will help very much. Mario Draghi has rightly pointed out that governments need to use other instruments.”

Earlier in the session, gains in Asia saw the MSCI regional and global stocks gauges rise again towards last week’s six-week highs. Asian stocks advanced, led by health care and consumer discretionary firms, as investors awaited possible new sanctions against Iran and gauged the probability of a U.S.-China trade deal later this week. Markets were mixed in the region, with Australia climbing and Singapore retreating. Japan’s Topix reversed earlier losses to close 0.1% higher, with Sony and Daiichi Sankyo among the biggest boosts. The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.2% as U.S. and China trade teams prepared for a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Japan. The S&P BSE Sensex Index edged 0.2% lower, driven by Reliance Industries and Infosys, as India’s central bank deputy chief Viral Acharya asked to resign from his post

Investors are waiting to see if Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping can de-escalate a trade war that is damaging the global economy and souring business confidence. The leaders will meet during a G20 summit in Japan which starts on Friday. Wall Street also looked in line for more gains after closing lower on Friday. S&P 500 e-minis pointed to a 0.2% rise at the open.

China Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen said China and US trade teams are having discussions, while he added that both sides should make compromises and hopes G20 sends a clear signal on fighting against trade protectionism. At the same time, China Assistant Foreign Minister Zhang Jun said the world economy faces increasing risks and the international community recognizes harm from protectionism, while he added that G20 should ensure unity and cooperation but also stated that China will safeguard its fundamental interests and will not allow anyone to interfere with its internal affairs no matter what forum.

“G20 is turning into a high-stakes poker game for risk, and if the sideline talks between Trump and Xi fail and trigger an escalation in tariffs, the odds of a full-blown global recession increase exponentially,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at Vanguard Markets.

On Monday, Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen said China and the United States should be willing to compromise in trade talks and not insist only on what each side wants. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence’s decision on Friday to call off a planned China speech was also considered a positive sign. Pence had upset China with a fierce speech in October that laid out a litany of complaints ranging from state surveillance to human-rights abuses.

Still, virtually all analysts doubt the two sides will come to any meaningful agreement. Tensions are reaching beyond tariffs, particularly after Washington blacklisted Huawei, the world’s biggest telecoms gear maker, effectively banning U.S. companies from doing business with it.

“Any high hopes ahead of the G20 meeting may be disappointed,” said Benjamin Schroeder, senior rates strategist at ING in Amsterdam. “In the end, uncertainty will persist and central banks could still be pushed closer to invoking their contingency plans.” (For Goldman’s preview of what to expect at the G-20, see this article).

Overnight, a Chinese newspaper said FedEx Corp was likely to be added to Beijing’s “unreliable entities list” following yet another delivery fiasco involving a Huawei shipment.

In FX, the dollar index slipped 0.1% lower to 96.11 after its biggest weekly drop in four months last week, when the Federal Reserve said that it may cut interest rates soon to bolster the U.S. economy.  The dollar has led a broad selloff in major currencies as global central banks signaled a dovish outlook on monetary policy amid growing signs of a weak global economy. The dollar fetched 107.39 yen, having slipped as low as 107.045 on Friday, the lowest level since its flash crash on Jan. 3.

“The market is not expecting more Fed rate cuts than it had so far, but that the reasoning behind them is being interpreted in a different manner,” Commerzbank’s head of FX and commodity research, Ulrich Leuchtmann, wrote in a note to clients. “While for a long time the expected weakening of growth, fears of a recession and low inflation were used as reasons for rate cuts, another reason has now been added to the list: the Fed caving in to the White House.”

The euro rose to a three-month high of $1.1387 against the dollar, while the Aussie gained for a fifth day as central bank Governor Philip Lowe said there are limits to what further monetary easing can achieve. In developing markets, the Turkish lira strengthened as much as 2% after Turkey’s main opposition party won Istanbul’s re-run election for mayor, a blow to President Tayyip Erdogan.

In rates, European government bonds climbed alongside U.S. Treasuries, where 10- year yields fell 2bps to 2.03%, its first decline in two days.

In cryptos, the resurgent Bitcoin pulled back from 18-month highs after jumping more than 10% over the weekend. Analysts said the gains came amid growing optimism over the adoption of cryptocurrencies after Facebook announced its Libra digital coin.

Meanwhile, gold resumed its rise amid economic woes, looming U.S. interest rate cuts and tensions between Tehran and Washington: the precious metal stood at $1,404.79 per ounce, not far from Friday’s six-year high of $1,410.78. The rising tensions between Iran and the United States, after Iran shot down an American drone, also pushed oil prices higher. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said “significant” sanctions on Tehran would be announced.

Brent crude futures rose 0.4% to $65.42 per barrel, near Friday’s three-week high of $65.76. U.S. crude futures were up 0.9% at $57.91, standing at its highest in over three weeks

Over the weekend, President Trump said that they are moving ahead with additional sanctions on Iran aimed at preventing it from getting a nuclear weapon and that military action is still on the table, while other reports also noted the White House is pressing for additional options including in cyberspace and other additional clandestine plans to counter Iranian aggression in the Persian Gulf. Subsequently, Iranian Navy Commander says the downing of the US Spy drone was a “firm response” and can be repeated, according to Tasmin News. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister says Russia and allies will counteract US sanctions on Iran. Additionally, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister stated that the US is deliberately increasing tensions with Iran.

Today’s expected data include Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook. No major company is scheduled to report earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,957.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 384.00
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 159.71
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 525.93
  • Nikkei up 0.1% to 21,285.99
  • Topix up 0.1% to 1,547.74
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 28,513.00
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,008.15
  • Sensex down 0.2% to 39,127.17
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,665.44
  • Kospi up 0.03% to 2,126.33
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.0 bps to -0.295%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1392
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 1.786%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.2 bps to 0.416%
  • Brent futures up 0.5% to $65.52/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,404.21
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 96.07

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • In the first signs of negotiations since talks broke down in May, U.S. and Chinese trade teams are discussing next steps after Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to meet on the sidelines of the upcoming Group of 20 summit in Japan, a senior trade official said in Beijing
  • Turkish opposition candidate Ekrem Imamoglu won the redo of the Istanbul mayor’s race by a landslide on Sunday, in a stinging indictment of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s economic policies and his refusal to accept an earlier defeat
  • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, weakened by an opposition party’s landslide victory in Istanbul’s repeat election, scrambled to reassert his standing as the country’s most dominant politician in half a century by refocusing attention on a crucial trip to Asia
  • Australian central bank chief Philip Lowe threw his support behind those casting doubt on how effective a new round of monetary policy easing by major economies would be in supporting global growth
  • President Trump is threatening Iran with additional sanctions as soon as Monday, but there’s not much left for the U.S. to target because most of the Islamic Republic’s economy is already crippled under the weight of financial restrictions. Oil gains on the threat of new sanctions against Iran
  • Viral Acharya, deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India, resigned six months before his term ends, Business Standard reported, citing him
  • Boris Johnson faces mounting pressure to submit to public scrutiny, after his rival in the race to be U.K. prime minister tried to turn questions about the front-runner’s character to his advantage
  • President Trump denied that he’d threatened to demote Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell but said he’d “be able to do that if I wanted”
  • President Trump sent North Korean leader Kim Jong Un a personal letter, and the U.S. is ready to restart talks with Pyongyang “at a moment’s notice,” Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said
  • New Zealand plans to introduce a bank deposit protection regime to bring it into line with other developed nations and increase public confidence in its lenders
  • A slump in German business confidence deepened in June as trade tensions weighed on manufacturers. U.S.-led protectionist threats have clouded the growth outlook in Europe’s largest economy for months, contributing to a manufacturing slump
  • The Reserve Bank of India will lose one of its most outspoken officials, further raising questions about the independence of the central bank six months after the governor resigned under a cloud. Deputy Governor Viral Acharya has asked to leave the central bank not later than July 23, 2019, citing “unavoidable personal circumstances”

Asian equity markets began the week somewhat choppy with participants tentative ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 this week and following the mild pullback last Friday on Wall St where all majors ended slightly lower on the day, but still notched gains of more than 2% for the week. ASX 200 (+0.2%) was initially led lower by underperformance in Consumer Staples and as comments from RBA Governor Lowe appeared to question the impact easing could have on the economy, while a non-committal tone was seen in the Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) amid a mixed currency. Hang Seng (+0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) were indecisive after the PBoC refrained from open market operations and as global markets await the latest developments in the trade war saga including the Trump-Xi showdown this week, while the US recently added 5 Chinese entities to its blacklist barring them from buying US parts without government approval. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued with after recent similar moves in T-notes and as yields bounced back from multi-year lows, while demand was also dampened after stocks in Tokyo pared opening weakness and amid the absence of the BoJ in the market.

Top Asian News

  • India Poised to Lose Outspoken Central Banker as Acharya Resigns
  • Pakistan to Get $3b in Deposits, Investments From Qatar
  • China Is Going Bananas for Bananas as Purchases Surge to Record
  • Nostrum Oil & Gas Studies Options Including Sale of Company

A choppy day for European equities thus far [Eurostoxx 50 -0.4%] following on from a similar Asia-Pac session as markets await the Trump-Xi showdown later this week. Major bourses are mostly in the red, losses for the DAX (-0.5%) stem from declining auto names after Daimler (-4.7%) issued its third profit warning in 12 months, citing losses caused by the diesel emission scandal; hence, Volkswagen (-1.2%) and BMW (-1.2%) have fallen in sympathy. Sectors are also lower with consumer discretionary names pressured by Daimler’s profit warning. In terms of individual movers, Leonardo (+2.4%) shares spiked higher at the open amid speculation that the Co. is considering bidding for Maxar Technologies’ space robotics business, which sources state could be valued over USD 1bln. Meanwhile, Carrefour (+1.6%) shares are underpinned after it reached an agreement to sell 80% of its Chinese operations with the transaction representing an enterprise value of EUR 1.4bln. Finally, Morphosys (+7.2%) shares are bolstered amid news that a treatments primary endpoint was met.

Top European News

  • German Business Confidence Takes Another Dive as Economy Wobbles
  • Italy Wins Temporary Reprieve in Bid to Stop EU Punishment
  • Hunt Says Johnson Dodges Scrutiny as Race for U.K. PM Heats Up
  • Santander Pays Allianz $1.1b to Terminate Spanish Venture

In FX, the USD has fallen further following last week’s dovish Fed policy meeting and Friday’s relatively weak PMIs, with the DXY faltering after a fleeting attempt to pare losses and probe above 96.200. The 96.000 handle looks under threat and could be relinquished amidst strength elsewhere, with Gold edging back over Usd 1400/oz and Eur/Usd eyeing 1.1400. Note also, the pressure could build as the week unfolds with at least one currency rebalancing model flagging a strong sell signal for the end of June, Q2 and H1, not to mention the G20 where US President Trump is due to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi for extensive trade talks.

  • NZD/AUD – Perhaps surprisingly given ongoing global trade and geopolitical uncertainty, the Antipodean Dollars are outperforming major peers, or rather deriving most momentum from their US rival’s demise. The Kiwi is pivoting 0.6600 and Aussie 0.6950 ahead of this week’s RBNZ meeting on Wednesday with rates widely tipped to remain unchanged before another cut in August, while comments from RBA’s Lowe may have dampened some dovish expectations as he questioned the effectiveness of easing to support the economy in the context of moves by other Central Banks aimed at sustaining growth and reaching inflation targets.
  • CAD/EUR – The next best G10 currencies, as the Loonie consolidates recovery gains through 1.3200 after its post-Canadian retail sales wobble, with some support from firmer crude prices, and the Euro draws encouragement from the latest German Ifo survey that was not as weak as forecast overall. Moreover, the institute maintained its 2019 GDP estimate and played down the prospect of a recession even though the economy is in the doldrums, or heading that way. However, Eur/Usd has tested the 50 DMA (1.1390) after clearing 200 DMA and WMAs, but falling just short barriers at the next big figure where the top end of 2 bn option expiries lie (from 1.1390 coincidentally).
  • CHF/GBP/JPY – All narrowly mixed vs the Buck as the Franc stalls ahead of 0.9750 and Pound meets resistance above 1.2750 in the form of a 38.2% retracement of the fall from 1.3185 to 1.2506 at 1.2766. Meanwhile, the Yen has retreated a bit further from 107.00 and into a 107.29-48 band with technical support seen a fraction under (107.27 Fib) and decent expiry interest a whisker above (1.3 bn at the 107.50 strike).
  • EM – The Lira has rebounded further from recent lows and in large part on the back of a resounding result at the 2nd Istanbul election that will not be contested this time. Indeed, President Erdogan congratulated the victor after the landslide saw Imamoglu defeat ex-PM Yildirim by whopping 800k votes. Usd/Try is hovering towards the bottom of a 5.7085-8200, with additional support for the Lira from an improvement in Turkish manufacturing sentiment.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures have retreated from highs in recent trade as the upside momentum seen in the complex somewhat wanes ahead of this week’s US-Sino meeting. Over the weekend, US President Trump announced the intention of further tariffs on Iran to stem the country’s nuclear developments, although Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister noted that the US is deliberately raising tensions with Iran and stated that Moscow and allies will counteract US sanctions on Tehran. WTI futures hover around USD 58/bbl (having hit an intraday high of USD 58.20/bbl) whilst its Brent counterpart trades just below the USD 65.50/bbl mark and closer to the bottom of today’s range. Elsewhere, gold prices hover around 6yr highs amid dovish central banks and rising tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, copper prices declined back below the USD 2.7/lb level as the red metal side-lines strikes at Chile’s Chuquicamata copper mine and takes the cue from the subdued risk tone heading into the G20 summit. Finally, Chinese Rebar steel traded near eight-year highs as demand picks up while output curbs have been extended in an attempt to reduce air pollution.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0, prior -0.4
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -2, prior -5.3

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to the last week of June and ever longer nights here in the northern hemisphere. Many months ago I got time off for good behaviour and booked in to play a 2 day golf tournament over this past weekend. It had a cut at the halfway stage to qualify for Sunday’s final round. However our recent weekends have been busier than anticipated and we desperately needed time to buy two sofas for the new house. After high level negotiations we agreed that if I missed the cut we’d go sofa shopping Sunday morning. If there was a greater motivation to play well then this was it. All Saturday all I could think of when I stood over the ball was that if I made a mistake then I’d have to spend hours the next day comparing different levels of cushion comforts and fabrics. Alas that pressure proved too much and Sunday was spent with scatter cushions and not scattering it around the golf course as I did on Saturday. I wonder if Rory and Tiger are under the same pressure to make the cut at the Open.

I hope there are some nice sofas in Osaka next weekend as the main event this week will be the much anticipated G-20 summit on Friday and Saturday with the Trump/Xi meeting on the sidelines of the utmost importance. It’ll also be interesting to see what global leaders make of trade tensions and the recent growth slowdown, and whether the US will sign up to the accord. Back to US/China tensions, today’s multiple times rearranged speech from VP Pence – expected to be critical of China – has again been postponed as progress seems to be being made between the two sides. So there will be hope that positivity can continue to extend after they meet. If it doesn’t the problem is that the tariffs on the last $300bn of Chinese exports into the US will be very close to being ready to be imposed. So a bit binary but the fact that they are meeting means that we’re in a better place that we were this time last week. Staying with global politics, the US/Iran relationship darkened further last week and over the weekend the US national security adviser suggested fresh sanctions could come as early as today. So another one to watch especially as it appeared that Mr Trump pulled back from planned military strikes last week. He did appear a little conciliatory over the weekend and suggested he is ready for talks. WTI crude oil price is trading up +0.66% this morning.

Just on that upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi, China’s Vice Commerce Minster Wang Shouwen said overnight that “Compromise will be on both sides. It will be a two-way street,” while adding that China’s principles for the trade talks remain the same, including “mutual respect, treating each other as equals, win-win outcomes, working together and respecting the rules of the World Trade Organization.” To highlight that talks will not be easy, the Trump administration has put five more Chinese tech entities on a trade blacklist. The accompanying statement from the US Commerce Department said the new entities listed were part of China’s efforts to develop supercomputers. It said they raised national security concerns because the computers were being developed for military uses or in cooperation with the Chinese military. Companies added to the backlist included AMD’s Chinese joint-venture with partner Higon – THATIC, Sugon, Chengdu Haiguang Integrated Circuit and Chengdu Haiguang Microelectronics Technology.

Asian markets have started the week generally on a slightly firmer footing with the Nikkei (+0.19%), Hang Seng (+0.23%) and Kospi (+0.08%) all up while the Shanghai Comp (-0.09%) is down. Elsewhere futures on the S&P 500 are trading +0.32%. Elsewhere, in mayoral re-elections in Istanbul, opposition candidate Ekrem Imamoglu won 54% of the vote, with the ruling AK Party’s candidate, former Prime Minister Binali Yildirim capturing 45% (per Bloomberg). The report further added that Turkish President Erdogan, who had called for re-election post Imamoglu’s previous win, accepted the outcome of the rerun but has hinted the new mayor could run into legal problems. He suggested Imamoglu might be tried for allegedly insulting a provincial governor, and a prison sentence could lead to his ouster. The Turkish lira is trading up +0.79% this morning. Staying in Europe, the FT has reported overnight (citing sources) that the European Commission won’t formally trigger its excessive deficit procedure for Italy during a meeting tomorrow. The report also added that the Italian PM Giuseppe Conte is determined to follow EU budget rules to avoid an infringement procedure. This seems to be trying to buy both sides some time to come to an agreement.

In other news, the US President Trump continued with his attack on the Fed Chair Powell by saying in a NBC’s interview, conducted Friday and broadcast on Sunday, that “I’m not happy with his actions. No, I don’t think he’s done a good job.” He also denied that he’d threatened to demote Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell but said he’d “be able to do that if I wanted.”

Moving on, in terms of key data this week, the highlights in the US this week include Durable Goods (Wednesday), final Q1 GDP revisions (Thursday) and PCE inflation (Friday). We’ll also get plenty of survey data. Fed Chair Powell will speak (Tuesday) and part two of the Fed’s stress tests results will be released (Thursday) after all passed in round one late on Friday. In US politics, on Wednesday twenty contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination are due to debate over two nights. This includes Senator Elizabeth Warren and front runner Joe Biden. In Europe today’s IFO in Germany is going to be important and given that 5yr5yr Euro inflation swaps hit record lows last week prior to Sintra, June’s CPI reports in Europe (Thursday and Friday) will be of note. The full day by day week ahead is published at the end.

After a busy week of macro news, Friday turned out to be relatively calm. For the most part, market moves were minor retracements of the week’s earlier action, with equities giving back a part of their gains, rates rising slightly after their big rally, and credit spreads widening a touch. The most noteworthy data on Friday, the flash PMIs in Germany, France, and the US, was mixed, with European readings doing better than expected but the US’s falling to a post-crisis low. The S&P 500 ended the week +2.20% (-0.13% Friday) and touched a new all-time high closing level on Thursday, while the NASDAQ and DOW made similar moves, up +3.01% and +2.41% (-0.24% and -0.13% Friday) respectively. In Europe, the STOXX index ended +1.57% (-0.36%) and Italian equities outperformed, with the FTSE MIB up +3.77% (+0.13% Friday). High yields credit spreads ended the week -16bps and -35bps tighter in the US and Europe (+1bps and -1bps Friday).

The moves in currencies continued their trends from earlier in the week, with the dollar dropping -1.40% (-0.44% Friday) and the euro gaining +1.43% (+0.66%). Oil also continued to rally, with WTI staging its strongest week since 2016 as US-Iran tensions heated up. That rally was worth +9.81% (+1.78%) for WTI, and a relatively more modest +5.40% (+1.41% Friday) for Brent. Gold advanced +4.28% (+0.77% Friday) to its highest level in five years. Energy-linked stocks performed well, with the S&P energy sector up +5.16% (+0.82% Friday), and the higher prices also sparked a move higher in inflation breakevens. Five year-five year inflation swap rates rose by +17.0bps and +6.3bps (+0.04bps and -0.8bps Friday) in the euro area and US, respectively after the central bank moves of last week. Those moves in inflation expectations added some nuance to the moves in bonds, where rises in breakevens were offset by falling real yields. Ultimately, the 10-year treasury ended -2.3bps lower (+2.9bps Friday) at 2.057% while bund yields were -3.0bps lower (+3.3bps Friday) at -0.285%. Treasuries had dipped below the 2% mark earlier in the week and bunds brushed a new all-time low. US 2s10s steepened +4.5bps (+3bps on Friday) on the week but traded in an 11.5bps range. For us the fact that the Fed went more dovish and the curve steepened was a sign that the market trusts them for now.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.17 POINTS OR 0.21%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 39.29 POINTS OR 0.14%   /The Nikkei closed UP 27.,35 POINTS OR 0.13%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .17%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8766 /Oil UP TO 57.84 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.16 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8666 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8782 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3c China/Chinese affairs

China/USA

Nouriel Roubini outlines the 3 possible scenarios facing the USA and China in the trade conflict

a very important read..

(courtesy Nouriel Roubini)

Dr.Doom Warns Of Imminent Sino-American Bust-Up After G-20

Authored by Nouriel Roubini via Nepal24Hours.com,

The nascent Sino-American cold war is the key source of uncertainty in today’s global economy. How the conflict plays out will affect consumer and asset markets of all kinds, as well as the trajectory of inflation, monetary policy, and fiscal conditions around the world. Escalation of the tensions between the world’s two largest economies could well produce a global recession and subsequent financial crisis by 2020, even if the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks pursue aggressive monetary easing.

Much, therefore, depends on whether the dispute does indeed evolve into a persistent state of economic and political conflict. In the short term, a planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, at the G20 Summit in Osaka on June 28-29 is a key event to watch. A truce could leave tariffs frozen at the current level, while sparing the Chinese technology giant Huawei from the crippling sanctions that Trump has put forward; failure to reach an agreement could set off a progressive escalation, ultimately leading to the balkanization of the entire global economy.

JAW-JAW OR WAR-WAR?

Viewed broadly, there are three scenarios for how the situation might develop between now and the end of 2020, when the United States will hold its next presidential election.

One possibility is that Trump and Xi will find a truce or modus vivendi in Osaka, paving the way for a negotiated settlement toward the end of this year. On the trade front, the US wants China to buy more American goods, reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers, open more financial and service sectors to foreign direct investment, and commit to maintaining currency stability and transparency with respect to foreign-exchange data.

On technology, the US is demanding that China strengthen intellectual-property protections, cease making the transfer of technology to Chinese firms a condition of market entry for US (and other) companies, and crack down on corporate cyber espionage and theft. A temporary deal could include any of the above, with the US offering medium-term (through the end of 2020, and possibly longer) exemptions to Chinese tech firms that use US components, semiconductors, and software. This would leave Huawei severely constrained, but not dead in the water.

The second possibility is a full-scale trade, tech, and cold war within the next 6-12 months.In this scenario, the US and China would adopt rapidly diverging positions after failing to successfully restart negotiations (with or without a truce). The US would follow through with import tariffs – starting at 10% but increasing to 25% – on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese goods that have so far been spared. And the Trump administration would pull the trigger on Huawei and other Chinese tech firms, barring them from purchasing components and software from US companies.

China, meanwhile, would take steps to protect its economy through macro-level stimulus, while retaliating against the US through measures that go beyond tariffs (such as expelling American firms). Huawei might survive within the Chinese market, but its growing global business would effectively be crippled, at least for the time being.

Beyond trade and technology, this scenario also implies increased geopolitical and military tensions. The possibility of some type of conflict over the East and South China Seas, Taiwan, North Korea, Xinjiang, Iran, or Hong Kong could not be ruled out.

Finally, in the third scenario, China and the US would fail to reach a deal on trade and technology, but they would forego rapid escalation. Instead of plunging into a total trade and technology war, the two powers might ratchet up their conflict more gradually. The US would impose new tariffs, but keep them at 10%, while renewing only temporarily exemptions that allow Huawei and other Chinese firms to continue purchasing key US-made inputs, while retaining the option of pulling the plug on Huawei at its discretion. Negotiations could continue, but the US would essentially hold a veto over Huawei’s bid to develop 5G and other key technologies of the global economy. Given that Trump could suddenly pull the plug on the company whenever it suits him, China’s leaders would probably abstain from blatant full-scale retaliation, but would still intervene to minimize the economic damage.

THE GOLDILOCKS OPTION…

The third scenario is the most likely for now, because China is playing a waiting game until November 2020, to see if the US elects a more even-keeled president. Even with a truce, therefore, any negotiations that are relaunched after the G20 summit will probably drag on indefinitely, with no real signs of progress. In the meantime, the Trump administration will want to apply additional pressure on China, while keeping its options open. Better, then, to start with a 10% tariff on that remaining $300 billion worth of exports. The US could always hike the rate to 25%, but at the risk of raising the costs of goods that many of Trump’s own lower-income voters rely on.

In the absence of a trade deal, the same modulated escalation is likely on the tech front. With Chinese firms already on a tight leash, the US could convince European countries and other allies not to grant Huawei tenders or licenses relating to 5G and consumer products such as smartphones, thereby undercutting Huawei’s current advantage in this market. That would buy the US a couple of years to cultivate its own national champions in 5G and related technologies, and to get a head start on 6G.

Moreover, a managed escalation has potential political advantages for Trump, and even for Xi. Trump will not be exposed to charges from Democrats that he got suckered or went soft on China. At the same time, the lingering uncertainty from an unresolved conflict will probably prompt the Fed to start cutting its policy rate in July – or September at the latest. Those cuts could reach 150 basis points if the slow rise in tensions starts to take a toll on business confidence. In fact, if the conflict is managed well, the US could avoid a recession altogether, albeit with a deceleration of annual growth from 2% toward the 1-1.5% range.

Whether the stock market would suffer a correction (a decline of 10% or more) or merely a sideways shift in the third scenario would depend on a variety of factors, such as investor confidence, growth trends, and monetary-policy measures. One also cannot rule out some type of fiscal stimulus in the US and other advanced economies. For example, Trump could try to broker a partial infrastructure-spending deal with congressional Democrats or seek to rebate tariff revenues to politically sensitive constituencies such as farmers and low- and middle-income households in the Rust Belt. Though Democrats would balk at granting Trump such favors, they would block rebates for the “losers” of the trade war at their peril.

The “managed-warfare” scenario also has advantages for Xi. The Chinese economy, after all, can be backstopped with monetary, fiscal, and credit stimulus, not to mention a weakening of the renminbi (above CN¥7 to the dollar). The government could also make a modest show of retaliation, such as by threatening to restrict (but not ban) exports of rare-earth metals, which are used in a wide range of high-tech products. At the same time, the authorities could make life harder for the hundreds of US firms with business and investments in China, not with a full boycott, but through a thousand small cuts and abuses.

… ISN’T REALLY AN OPTION

Because China and the US both know that they are in for a decades-long rivalry, they may well conclude that it is better not to risk a full-scale conflict and global recession in the short run. Only through proper preparation over the medium term can the two powers manage a long-term cold war and the de-globalization that will be necessary to protect their respective supply chains.

But this scenario is not particularly stable, and could easily morph into the first or the second after a few months. If China and the US are both motivated by concerns about growth and financial-market stability, they could overcome their immediate differences, which would allow for a temporary agreement that postpones the question of how to manage a larger cold-war rivalry.

In principle, both countries would be better off with a deal, which is why markets had priced in the first scenario up until this past May, when negotiations collapsed. For the US, an agreement on good terms would boost consumer and business confidence, and thus growth, while reducing inflationary risks from the tariffs.

The sequencing of a potential deal also matters. As matters stand, persistent uncertainty will lead the Fed to loosen its monetary policy one way or another. Suppose that Trump and Xi restart negotiations that then drag on until late fall or early winter of this year. The Fed would have to cut its policy rate by at least 50 basis points, after which point the Trump administration may agree to a deal. Because the impact of monetary easing takes time, the Fed would have to remain on hold until November 2020. (Even if the economy and inflation were to rebound, monetary policymakers would be hesitant to reverse course before the election, lest they appear to be acting politically.)

In this sequence, Trump’s re-election prospects would be doubly improved. The Fed would have locked in rate cuts as insurance, and a new agreement would have bolstered investor confidence and the stock market. But, of course, this could happen only by chance. Trump’s “art of the deal” does not involve such multistep, multidimensional thinking, after all.

As for China, an agreement would, at a minimum, prevent further damage to its economy, and particularly its tech sector. The government would secure a few more years with which to prepare for a longer-term conflict over trade, investment, artificial intelligence, 5G, and geopolitical dominance in Asia and beyond.

The Chinese tend to think long term, and they are well aware of the “Thucydides trap” – a self-fulfilling prophecy in which a hegemon and an emerging power end up at war. Still, they clearly need more time to prepare. A major short-term shock today would be hard for China to absorb, especially if it knocks the country’s national champions offline for the medium to long term.

And indeed, Trump now appears to be opening the door to a truce at the G20, tweeting that critical preparatory work for an extensive meeting with Xi will now begin. But that meeting may still fail, even if both sides pretend that a truce was reached. If there is no substance to the terms of an agreement at the G20 – only painted smiles and stiff handshakes – the subsequent negotiations may quickly fail and lead to a gradual escalation of the trade and tech war.

THUCYDIDES RETURNS

Unfortunately, an even more likely course of events is that the third scenario – a managed trade and tech war, which is my baseline of how the rivalry will evolve over the next few months – would then devolve into the second (a full-scale confrontation). A Sino-American trade and tech deal in the coming months is far from assured. The negotiations broke down in May as a result of substantial differences between the two sides. And now, the complex preparations needed to stage a successful Trump-Xi summit in Osaka are being rushed at the last moment, after six weeks were wasted with no contact.

Even if the Americans and Chinese can overcome differences in their negotiating style, the US will still want legislative commitments from China, and China will still view such demands as a violation of its national sovereignty. The Chinese are highly sensitive to anything resembling the imperial interference that weakened China in the nineteenth century. Like Trump, Xi cannot afford to lose face.

Moreover, as the war of words has escalated over the last month, the spillover of trade frictions into the technology domain has intensified. Once kept formally separate, the two issues are now inextricably intertwined, which will make a resolution even harder to achieve. The Chinese cannot agree to any deal that does not rescue Huawei, but now that Huawei has become a bargaining chip, national-security hawks in the Trump administration and Congress will force Trump to take a hard line on the company.

Each side seems to think that the other will blink first. For example, the US assumes it can inflict more economic pain on China than China is capable of returning, because US exports to China ($130 billion) are a fraction of China’s exports to the US ($560 billion). Hence, when it comes to tariffs, China seems to have more to lose.

Yet, as we have seen, the conflict is about much more than tariffs, and China can retaliate in a number of ways. In addition to imposing new non-tariff barriers, it can strike a blow against major US firms that rely on Chinese supply chains and consumer markets, while allowing the renminbi to weaken. And if tensions escalate too far, China could even resort to the nuclear option of dumping its massive holdings of US Treasuries; it has already started to reduce its holdings of such US assets.

Moreover, US leaders may be underestimating the costs of the conflict. According to the prevailing narrative, the tariffs now in place have had only a modest impact on US growth and inflation. But the latest economic data suggest otherwise, as the US and global economy are slowing. In fact, one reason why the Fed has started considering preemptive insurance rate cuts – likely to start in July – may be that it is worried that tariffs are hurting the US economy more than was initially anticipated.

Making matters worse, the US has nowhere near as many tools to respond to macroeconomic shocks as China does. In addition to massive stimulus and currency depreciation, China’s government can bail out private and public enterprises at will. The US, by contrast, must rely on traditional monetary and fiscal tools, all of which are already severely constrained. And while Trump must worry about re-election, Xi has abolished presidential term limits, faces few constraints on his power, and presides over a sprawling apparatus of social control, including the Great Firewall of online censorship.

THE ART OF “NO DEAL”

Politically, then, it is much easier for China to take the long view, which is what Xi has done by announcing a “new Long March” – a reference to the People’s Liberation Army’s long, painful retreat in the 1930s to a new stronghold in Shaanxi province, from which it broke out and took over all of China, under Mao Zedong, in 1949. By wrapping himself in the Chinese flag and fomenting nationalism at home, Xi is preparing Chinese society for a protracted struggle. If a full-scale cold war ensues, he will be able to remind the Chinese of the need to suffer today to achieve glory tomorrow.

In fact, it is possible that Xi actually wants a full-scale economic war as a means of damaging Trump’s re-election chances. A new Democratic president – even one who accepts the reality of a more contentious Sino-American rivalry – would almost certainly be a more constructive and honest broker for China to deal with. In the parlance of the foreign-policy establishment, Xi may see de facto escalation as the quickest route to regime change in the US.

Moreover, Xi is not an absolute ruler. While he controls most of the levers of power, there are still factions within the Communist Party of China (CPC) that could turn on him if he does not mount a sufficiently aggressive response to the US. He is not in a position to accept a deal in which he – or China – loses face or power. If America’s medium- to long-term goal is to contain China, as the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy clearly suggests, Xi cannot agree to anything in the short term that advances that agenda. In the grand scheme of things, it might be better to start a full-scale conflict now than to grant the US a tactical advantage for the next two years.

The danger is that Trump, too, would prefer a partial or full-scale trade and technology war to a weak deal. If Trump makes any notable concessions, he will be accused by both Democrats and right-wing pundits of appeasing China and betraying American blue-collar workers. Even if he can’t secure a favorable deal, at least he can say he remained tough. Among those who have Trump’s ear are national-security hawks – some of them modern-day Dr. Strangeloves – who believe that China is so fragile that an economic shock could precipitate a political collapse, and even regime change. This is a dangerous game to play, because it could lead to actions that turn a cold war into a hot war. The mere presence of such extreme voices in Trump’s orbit suggests that the administration’s intent is to contain China at any cost.

Worse, these hawks have the upper hand now that the “adults in the room” have long since departed. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, National Security Adviser John Bolton, acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan, and Vice President Mike Pence all appear to be China hawks. And the situation is no better with respect to trade and economic advisers, where Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, White House Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and Peter Navarro, Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, have sidelined moderates such as Secretary of the Treasury Steve Mnuchin (who is unwilling to stand up to the president anyway).

SUMMIT SIGNALS

Where does that leave us? If both Xi and Trump find the third scenario attractive, neither will be willing to meet halfway on a deal. That makes the second scenario – a full-scale trade and technology war – the most likely outcome, given that a controlled escalation is inherently unstable.

As matters stand, the probability of a deal eventually being reached is low (my colleagues and I put it at just 25%). Still, we will know more after the G20 summit later this month. If Trump and Xi fail to broker a truce or a temporary agreement regarding Huawei, the US will probably follow through with 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese exports. We will then be in the initial stages of the third scenario.

On the other hand, if Trump and Xi hold a friendly meeting and agree to a truce, the US will probably withhold new tariffs, and we will be in the early stages of the first scenario. This would make the probability of the two sides reaching a deal slightly higher. But a lurch to the third scenario – a precipitous escalation of the current confrontation – would still be more likely, followed eventually by a descent into a full-scale conflict. Where it will end is anyone’s guess, but an escalating trade and tech war is, in my view, more likely than an eventual deal.

end

CHINA/USA FED EX

Again important documents go astray after Fed Ex misses another delivery of a Huawei pkg.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Beijing Demands Explanation After FedEx Misses Delivery Of Another Huawei Package

Beijing is demanding answers from FedEx, after the American package-delivery and logistics service again botched the delivery of a package sent by Huawei, the Chinese telecoms giant at the center of the US-China trade spat.

FedEx

FedEx said on Sunday that an operational error prevented a Huawei package from being delivered to the US just weeks after the US delivery firm said an error led to several of the firm’s packages being misdirected.

“The package in question was mistakenly returned to the shipper, and we apologize for this operational error,” FedEx told Reuters in an emailed statement.

The package had been bound for the US, but was mistakenly returned to its sender in China (unlike the last misdirected packages, which were re-routed to FedEx facilities in the US, even as the packages were destined for other Asian countries).

In response to that incident, Beijing launched an investigation into FedEx that it stressed was in no way meant to be retaliation for the trade war, and also threatened to create a list of “undesirable entities” and place FedEx on it.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said during a regular press briefing in Beijing that, since this wasn’t the first time FedEx made a mistake like this, it should offer a more detailed explanation for what happened. Geng was ominously quiet about whether this latest incident might land FedEx on the “undesirable entities” list, though he did accuse the US of “bullying” that hurts Chinese companies and American companies alike. Geng urged the US to stop this behavior and create a more “conducive” atmosphere for cooperation.

END
China/USA
China now slams Pompeo as we approach the day for trad talks. China states that Pompeo can no longer play a role as top USA diplomat
(courtesy zerohedge)

Beijing Slams Pompeo As Trade Talks Loom: “He Can No Longer Play Role Of Top US Diplomat”

With US stocks back in the red for the day, Global Times editor Hu Xijin, one of Beijing’s favorite English-language mouthpieces and perhaps the most obvious candidate  for ‘anti-Trump’ Twitter foil, has offered a stern warning to keep the market’s frothy enthusiasm in check.

One day before leaders of each side’s trade delegation are expected to begin meeting in Osaka ahead of this week’s G-20 summit (and long-anticipated meeting, Hu warned that the “current atmosphere” between Washington and Beijing is “not good”.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT

Current atmosphere between China and the US is not good. What I have learned about China’s stance now is: holding constructive and positive attitude toward upcoming China-US summit, but fully preparing for its failure and an escalating trade

According to Hu, China’s attitude  going into the summit  is “positive”, but “fully preparing for its failure and an escalation” of the trade war.

Furthermore, Hu had some particularly harsh words for Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, labeling the Secretary of State a “troublesome” figure in US-China relations  and insisting that Pompeo “can no longer play the role of a top US diplomat between the two countries.”

Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT

.@SecPompeo has become the most troublesome US official for China. He can no longer play the role of a top US diplomat between the two countries. To China, he is still a CIA director who takes over State Department.

Beijing’s attacks on the secretary of state come as Pompeo wrapped up a string of meetings in the Middle East with King Salman of Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince. This isn’t the first time Pompeo has earned the ire of Beijing. Last October, Pompeo became embroiled in a public confrontation with top Chinese official during what was supposed to be an amicable press conference  in Beijing.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

FRANCE

A good commentary by Gatestone’s Meotti on the divisiveness of France.  On one side are the wealthy and the other, the poor.  This was brought out by the Islamization of France.

a good read..

(courtesy Meotti/Gatestone)

Meotti: The Suicide Of France

Authored by Giulio Meotti via The Gatestone Institute,

  • “Frenchness” is disappearing and being replaced by a kind balkanization of enclaves not communicating with one another…. this is not a good recipe.
  • The more the French élites with their disposable incomes and cultural leisure cloister themselves in their enclaves, the less likely it is that they will understand the everyday impact of failed mass immigration and multiculturalism.
  • The globalized, “bobo-ized [bourgeois Bohemian] upper classes” are filling the “new citadels” — as in Medieval France — and are voting en masse for Macron. They have developed “a single way of talking and thinking… that allows the dominant classes to substitute for the reality of a nation subject to severe stress and strain the fable of a kind and welcoming society.” — Christophe Guilluy, Twilight of the Elites,Yale University Press, 2019.

“Regarding France in 2019, it can no longer be denied that a momentous and hazardous transformation, a ‘Great Switch’, is in the making”, observed the founder and president of the Jean-Jacques Rousseau Institute, Michel Gurfinkiel. He was mourning “the passing of France as a distinct country, or at least as the Western, Judeo-Christian nation it had hitherto been presumed to be”. A recent cover story in the weekly Le Point called it “the great upheaval“.

Switch or upheaval, the days of France as we knew it are numbered: the society has lost its cultural center of gravity: the old way of life is fading and close to “extinction“. “Frenchness” is disappearing and being replaced by a kind balkanization of enclaves not communicating with one another. For the country most affected by Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism, this is not a good recipe.

The French switch is also becoming geographical. France now appears split between “ghettos for the rich” and “ghettos for the poor”, according to an analysis of the electoral map by France’s largest newspaper, Le Monde. “In the poorest sector, 6 out of 10 newly settled households have a person born abroad”, notes Le Monde. A kind of abyss now separates peripheral France — small towns, suburbs and rural areas – from the globalized metropolis of the “bourgeois Bohemians”, or “bobos”. The more the French élites with their disposable incomes and cultural leisure cloister themselves in their enclaves, the less likely it is that they will understand the everyday impact of failed mass immigration and multiculturalism.

A recent European poll reflected these “two Frances that do not cross or speak to each other”, observed Sylvain Crepon of the University of Tours, in analyzing the success of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party in the recent European Parliament election. Le Pen and President Emmanuel Macron, the two winners in the election, speak to completely different sociological groups. In the Paris suburbs — Aulnay-sous-Bois, Sevran, Villepinte and Seine-Saint-Denis — the far-right National Rally has been experiencing a boom. In the cities, Le Pen is largely behind: she came fifth in Paris, third in Lille, fourth in Lyon. According to Crepon:

“[T]hese cities will be protected from the National Rally’s vote by their sociological structuring. It gives credit to the populist talk that diagnoses a disconnected elite. This [view] backs the idea of ​​a sociological break, which is not completely wrong”.

On one side of this break are towns such as Dreux, which Valeurs Actuelles called“the city that prefigures the France of tomorrow”:

“On one side, a royal city with the vestige of a history believing that all things are being changed [millenarian]; on the other, cities imbued with [drug] trafficking and Islam. The bourgeois of the city center vote for Macron, the ‘small whites’ for Le Pen”.

On the other side, is Paris. “All the metropolises of the world know the same fate. This is where wealth flows and where the alliance between the ‘winners of globalization’ and their ‘servants’, immigrants who have come to serve the new masters of the world, keep their children, bring their pizzas or work in their restaurants”, writes the distinguished social commentator Èric Zemmour in Le Figaro. From now on, he writes, “Paris is a global city, not really a French city”.

The globalized, “bobo-ized [bourgeois Bohemian] upper classes”, according to one of France’s most respected authors. Christophe Guilluy, are filling the “new citadels” — as in Medieval France — and are voting en masse for Macron. They have developed “a single way of talking and thinking… that allows the dominant classes to substitute for the reality of a nation subject to severe stress and strain the fable of a kind and welcoming society”. Guilluy has been criticized by some French media for addressing this reality.

The recent “yellow vests” movement — whose demonstrators have been protesting every Saturday in Paris, for months, against President Macron’s reforms — is a symbol of this division between the working class and the gentrified progressives.

Pictured: “Yellow vests” protestors occupy the steps leading to the Basilique du Sacré-Cœur on March 23, 2019 in Paris, France.

According to Guilluy, it is a “social and cultural shock“. This shock, according to the French philosopher Alain Finkielkraut, consists of the “ugliness of peripheral France and its effects on concrete lives, the sadness of these working classes who have lost not only a standard of living but also a cultural referent”. In France, there is now a pervasive sense of “dispossession“.

Marine Le Pen’s party won more than twice as many electoral department as Macron. Le Pen won in the depressed and deindustrialized areas of northern, south-central and eastern France that spawned the yellow vests.

“Since moving to France in 2002, I’ve watched the country complete a cultural revolution”, Simon Kuper recently wrote in the Financial Times.

“Catholicism has almost died out (only 6 per cent of French people now habitually attend mass), though not as thoroughly as its longtime rival ‘church’, communism. The non-white population has kept growing”.

Macron, Kuper explains, is the symbol of “a new individualised, globalised, irreligious society”.

France’s flight from Catholicism is so evident that a new book, L’archipel français: Naissance d’une nation multiple et divisée, by the pollster Jerôme Fourquet, has described the cultural failing of the French society as a “post-Christian era“: French society’s displacement from its Catholic matrix has become almost total. The country, Fourquet states, is now implementing its own de-Christianization. And there is only one strong substitute at the horizon. There are today already, according to a new academic study, as many Muslims as Catholics among 18-29 year-olds in France; and Muslims represent 13% of the population of France’s large cities, more than double the national average.

Sometimes Muslim feelings of community solidarity appear to have been taking advantage of this fragmentation by creating their own “ghettos of sharia“. A report from Institut Montaigne, “The Islamist Factory“, has detailed the radicalization of the French Muslim society. Instead of integration, assimilation and Europeanization, Muslim extremists in France are pursuing multiculturalism, separation and partition. The enclaves of immigrants at the edges of French cities, posits Gilles Kepel in his book, La Fracture, foment “a rupture in values with French society, and a will to subvert it”. “People do not want to live together”, said France’s former Interior Minister, Gérard Collomb, in comments reported by Valeurs Actuelles.

This “fracture” was noted again in the same publication: “Four out of ten boys in Seine-Saint-Denis have Arab-Muslim first names”. Pollster Jérôme Fourquet revealed in a new study that “18 percent of newborn babies in France have an Arab-Muslim name”.

France’s “Great Switch” is underway. As the philosopher Alain Finkielkraut recently wrote, “The Notre-Dame fire is neither an attack nor an accident, but a suicide attempt.”

END

ECB

Are we about to witness a “Mutiny on the Bounty ” at the ECB?

(courtesy Wolf Richter/.WolfStreet)

Draghi ‘Out’ed By ECB Insiders As Liar And Schemer

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

Draghi’s shenanigans get hilarious, months before his term ends.

So here’s ECB President Mario Draghi, whose term ends in October, and he’s at the ECB Forum in Portugal, and in a speech on Tuesday titled innocuously, “Twenty Years of the ECB’s monetary policy” – so this wasn’t a press conference after an ECB policy meeting or anything, but a speech on history at an ECB Forum – he suddenly threw out a whole bunch of stuff…

How, “in the absence of improvement” of inflation, “additional stimulus will be required,” in form of “further cuts in policy interest rates” and additional bond purchases, and how “in the coming weeks, the Governing Council will deliberate how our instruments can be adapted commensurate to the severity of the risk to price stability,” and that “all these options were raised and discussed at our last meeting.”

Whoa! Wait a minute, said the good folks who were part of the ECB’s June meeting. These options were not discussed, they told Reuters on Tuesday.

Draghi had ventured out there on his own – apparently trying to push his colleagues into a corner single-handedly as his last hurrah.

His vision laid out on Tuesday was quite a change from the June 6 post-meeting announcement, which didn’t mention anything about even discussing rate cuts. It said that the ECB expects its policy rates to “remain at their present levels at least through the first half of 2020,” before the ECB would begin to raise them, with the bias still on raising rates, not cutting rates. That was less than two weeks ago, and there had not been another ECB policy meeting since then.

Interviewing six “sources” at the ECB with “direct knowledge of the situation,” Reuters found that these policy makers “had not expected such a strong message and that there was no consensus on the path ahead.”

At the June 6 policy meeting, any possibility of a rate cut or renewed asset purchases had been mentioned “only in passing” and without any substantive discussion. The discussion had instead focused on the new package of loans for the banks, the sources said.

The sources told Reuters that ECB policymakers were worried “Draghi was flagging his measures so strongly to markets as a ‘fait accompli’ that there would be no chance for them to disagree with them in at the next policy meeting on July 25,” Reuters reported.

But they added that, with a global trade war escalating and financial worries around Italy already high, there was little appetite for a fight in July, Reuters said.

Several sources told Reuters that, because very little new economic information on the Eurozone will come out before the July 25 meeting, “it would be difficult to justify coming to a different policy conclusion than in June.”

And at the June meeting, the conclusion was to delay rate hikes – and there was no mention of rate cuts.

The sources told Reuters that the debate about which policy measures to implement, when, and in what order was still wide open, with policy makers having very different opinions.

For some the first step should be a change in the ECB’s policy message. Others favor a reinforcement of the pledge not to raise rates for a longer time.

Others favor restarting the asset purchase program to bring borrowing costs down for governments so that they could spend more during a downturn, though that would be handicapped by the “issuer limit” that prevents the ECB from holding more than 30% of a country’s sovereign bonds. But the ECB could dispose or circumvent that limit, “some” sources said.

Some policymakers lean toward rate cuts, the sources said. And other policymakers think the ECB should not make any changes at all unless economic data deteriorated substantially and inflation expectations dropped further below the ECB’s target.

But there was no consensus, and there had been no substantive discussions of these topics at the last meeting that had focused on the modalities of the new bank loan package.

What is hilarious is how Draghi was outed as a fabricator and schemer on the very same day he made his additional-stimulus-will-be-required speech, by people who were surprised by his speech, some of whom felt “powerless,” as Reuters put it, and knew he was trying to box them into a corner with his devious move. This has the smell of a palace revolt at the ECB against the head honcho and his last hurrah.

 

END

Not wishing a war just not yet, Brussels is delaying the fines to Italy for their budget deficit. Italian yields nowhit one yr lows

(courtesy zerohedge)

Italian Yields Hit 1-Year Low As EU Delays Budget Crackdown

Italian yields tumbled on Monday, with the 10-year yield falling as much as 5 basis points to 2.1% – its lowest level since May 2018 – after Brussels signaled that it would be willing to wait before launching a disciplinary process against Italy over the country’s rising debt plans, potentially allowing the two sides to seek a compromise.

Italy

Instead of triggering the Excessive Debt Procedure when the European Commission meets on Tuesday, the panel is going to give the Italian government another chance to revise its spending plans.

Salvini

According to the FT, the truce will buy time for Rome’s populist government to reach a deal and avoid budget sanctions and fines that could stretch into the billions of euros. Even though the squabbling over Italy’s debt has returned after purportedly being settled late last year, debt investors are cheering the news because it signals that some members of the populist government might still be open to compromise.

For one, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, considered more of a technocrat than Deputy PMs and coalition leaders Matteo Salvini and Luigi Di Maio, is hoping to do enough to avoid an infringement procedure, the FT reports, citing figures from within the Italian government. Conte and Finance Minister Giovanni Tria are trying to find budget savings that might convince Brussels to dispense with moving ahead with the sanctions process.

Rome wants to use a €5.2 billion ($6 billion) net improvement in its 2019 spending plan to mitigate its financial position.“It is not Mr Conte’s intention to sign an infringement procedure and we want to move within the rules. However, we also expect to be offered some room for interpretation [of those rules],” one person with knowledge of the prime minister’s thinking said. “We are confident the procedure won’t kick off.

The Italian finance ministry will send a letter responding to the commission’s assessment this week, and the commission has until early July to inform the various EU finance ministers whether it wants to proceed with the EDP. Officials say Wednesday, the due date for Rome to submit a spending review to the Italian parliament, is also a key moment.

Given that Italy is the third largest eurozone economy and, after Greece, has the highest debt-to-GDP, the outcome of these negotiations could have serious repercussions across the bloc. From a financial stability standpoint, the worst-case scenario is that the EU moves ahead with its plans to fine Italy, forcing Italy to the brink of a banking crisis, followed by a hasty exit from the euro, possibly to be replaced by the BoT.

 end

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Iran/Saturday.

A very important commentary from Tom Luongo as to the real scoop behind the Iranian drone attack and the mine attack on those two tankers.  It is well worth your time to read his thoughts.

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

Who Survives The Iran Counter-Offensive?

Authored by Tom Luongo,

Iran has had enough. I think it’s fair to say that after 60+ years of U.S. aggression towards Iran that the decision to shoot down a U.S. drone represents an inflection point in world politics.

In the first few hours after the incident the fog of war was thick. But a day later much of it has cleared thanks to Iran’s purposeful poke at U.S. leadership by coming clean with their intentions.

Iran chose to shoot down this drone versus hitting the manned P-8 aircraft and then chose not to lie about it in public, but rather come forward removing any deniability they could have had.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Tasnim News Agency

@Tasnimnews_EN

’s purpose by shooting down the drone was to warn the “ terrorist forces” as it could also target an P-8 military aircraft that was flying next to MQ-4C drone, but it didn’t: Brigadier General Hajizadeh

They did this after President Trump’s comments yesterday during a news conference with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau where Trump described the attack as “a big mistake” and “not intentional.”

But it was intentional.

And the reason for this was that despite Trump’s assurances yesterday there is considerable debate as to where the drone actually was. According to a report from the NY Times (and buried deep in a very long article):

Still, there remained doubt inside the United States government over whether the drone, or another American surveillance aircraft, this one flown by a military aircrew, did violate Iranian airspace at some point, according to a senior administration official. The official said the doubt was one of the reasons Mr. Trump called off the strike — which could under international norms be viewed as an act of war.

The delay by United States Central Command in publicly releasing GPS coordinates of the drone when it was shot down — hours after Iran did — and errors in the labeling of the drone’s flight path when the imagery was released, contributed to that doubt, officials said.

A lack of provable “hard evidence” about the location of the drone when it was hit, a defense official said, put the administration in an isolated position at what could easily end up being the start of yet another war with a Middle East adversary — this one with a proven ability to strike back.

This means a couple of things. First, it is likely that Trump was not properly briefed on the issue by his National Security Council, who were pushing him to strike back hard and who are itching to get the U.S. into an armed conflict with Iran.

Framing the attack as a mistake Trump was handing Iran the opportunity to de-escalate things. To me, this signaled that Trump was told through back channels this was an operation designed by us to put Iran in a no-win situation — either allow encroachment of their airspace or shoot down a drone that would land in international waters.

Moreover, doubts as to the drone’s position, remember, with a plane carrying actual ordnance on its wing, put Trump in a real bind.

And he knew it at the presser. That’s the way Trump tried to frame this the way he did. Because the implications here are that he is being boxed in on all sides by his administration and his allies — the Saudis, Israelis and the UAE — and frogmarched to a war he doesn’t want.

He wants Iran to heel but he doesn’t know how to go about it.

That Iran then chose the next day to openly declare that they were not confused or misled and knew exactly what they were doing puts Trump in an even worse position.

Because an unmanned drone, as he said in his futile tweetstorm, is not worth going to war over, especially one whose position in in dispute.

And everyone knows it. Europe wouldn’t condemn Iran here. No one did. Only the U.S. And that silence is deafening as Pompeo, Bolton and Haspel again over-extend themselves.

Trump is right that he can afford to be patient and now re-frame this as him being the magnanimous God-Emperor but what he’s really doing is talking capital markets off a cliff.

Because that’s where the U.S. is the most vulnerable and where Iran’s greatest leverage lies. This incident should have sent oil prices far higher than they did if the threat of war was real.

Why? Because the markets discounted the U.S.’s stories immediately. There have been so many incidents like this that should have started a war in the past three years which turn out to be bogus that the market reaction was muted, at best.

It also tells you just how quickly the global economy is slowing down if a major military incident between Iran and the U.S. near the Strait of Hormuz only pushed the price of Brent Crude up to fill the gap on the weekly chart and confirm the recent low.

It did push gold through its massive resistance zone between $1360 and $1375 an ounce and it looks like a close above that for the week is likely.

That said, given this was just a drone and that Trump wasn’t likely to respond with starting a wider war….

Iran shooting down a U.S. drone shouldn’t have caused gold to pop through $1,375 and stay above it…

… It was {FOMC Chair Jerome} Powell’s dovish statement that provided the fuel for this move. Iran simply lit the match.

Now Trump has to respond to this. One could ask why our drone was flying in airspace we knew Iran would respond to.

Martin Armstrong is reporting that a lot of the buying came from the Middle Eastand that now that we’re above $1375 hedges are lifting and short-covering is what took gold to $1415.

But it also means that something bigger is brewing in the capital markets that both Iran and Trump understand. And maybe that muted response from oil has more to do with that.

As Pepe Escobar lays out convincingly in his latest article, Iran’s threats against global oil shipping aren’t aimed at disrupting the global economy per se. There’s plenty of oil stored in Strategic Reserves around the world to keep things operating during any U.S. military operation to destroy Iran’s navy (which wouldn’t take very long) and open the strait to oil traffic.

It is that a disruption in the price of oil will force the unwinding of trillions in interest rate swap derivatives already at risk because of the tenuous hold on reality Deutsche Bank has, since DB clears a super-majority of all such derivative contracts for the whole of Europe.

No one wants to see $300 per barrel oil. That Goldman Sachs is posting potential targets of $1000 per barrel tells you where they are positioning themselves, as if they know something? Goldman? Have insider knowledge?

Please! It is to laugh.

What we are looking at here is the ultimate game of brinkmanship. Trump is saying his maximum pressure campaign will break Iran in the end and if they go one step further (which they won’t directly) he will eliminate them.

Iran, on the other hand, is stating categorically that if Trump doesn’t allow Iran to trade than no one will. And that threat is a real one, given their regional influence. Incalculable financial and political damage can be done by Iran and its proxies around the region through attacks on oil and gas infrastructure.

Governments will fall, markets will collapse. And no one gets out without scars.

It’s the kind of stand-off that needs to end with everyone walking away and regrouping but is unlikely to do so because of entrenched interests on both sides and the historical grudges of the men involved.

What’s important is to know that the rules of the game have changed. Iran has taken all the punches to the nose it will take from Trump without retaliating. When you corner someone and give them no way out you invite the worst kind of counter-attack.

Last week I asked whether Trump’s “B-Team” overplayed their hand in the Gulf of Oman, staging a potential false flag over some oil tankers to stop peace breaking out and arrest the slide in oil prices.

Today everyone wants to think Iran overplayed its hand by attacking this drone.But given the amount mendacity and the motivations of the people involved, I’d say that it was yet another attempt by the enemies of peace to push us to the brink of a world war in which nothing good comes of it.

I give Trump a lot of credit here for not falling into the trap set for him. He now has to begin removing those responsible for this quagmire and I’m sure that will be on the docket when he meets with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping next week at the G-20.

It starts with John Bolton and it ends with Mike Pompeo.

And if he doesn’t replace them in the next six to eight weeks then we know Trump isn’t serious about keeping us out of war. He’s just interested in doing so until he gets re-elected.

*  *  *

Support for Gold Goats ‘n Guns can happen in a variety of ways if you are so inclined. From Patreon to Paypal or soon SubscribeStar or by your browsing habits through the Brave browser where you can tip your favorite websites (like this one) for the work they provide.

end
IRAN/USA
Trump initiates a secret cyber attack on Iran and especially against an intelligence outfit which is part of the Iranian National Guard.  No doubt that Iran is trying to do the same thing to the USA
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Ordered Secret Cyber Attacks On Iran As An “Alternative” To War Thursday Night

It’s been revealed that President Trump did order an attack on Iran – but not a military assault – instead, the US initiated a major cyber attack against an Iranian intelligence outfit the Pentagon believes was part of last week’s limpet mine incident involving two tankers in the Gulf of Oman. 

According to Yahoo Newswhich first broke the story – which was later confirmed Saturday evening by CNN and The Washington Post – the “retaliatory digital strike” was launched on Thursday evening just as the world was bracing itself for possible US airstrikes on Iran:

On Thursday evening, U.S. Cyber Command launched a retaliatory digital strike against an Iranian spy group that supported last week’s limpet mine attacks on commercial ships, according to two former intelligence officials.

 

Image via FT.com 

The report relies on unnamed defense sources, which further added more details in a CNN follow-up, including that the group is tied to Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and that the spy group had used unique software to track tankers that had been targeted in last week’s June 13 incident.

CNN reported as follows:

USCC [U.S. Cyber Command] attacked the spy group, which has ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, after Iran attacked ships in the region, the officials said.

The US official added the strike targeted an Iranian spy group’s computer software that was used to track the tankers that were targeted in the Gulf of Oman on June 13.

And the AP also noted that Thursday night’s cyber operation involved disabling computer systems which control Iran’s rocket and missile launchers, according to anonymous US officials. Trump was said to have ordered the cyber operations against IRGC computer systems as an alternative to starting an overt war.

“Two officials told The Associated Press that the strikes were conducted with approval from Trump. A third official confirmed the broad outlines of the strike,” according to the AP’s reporting.

The Pentagon has neither confirmed or denied the report; however, the Department of Homeland Security over the weekend said that cyber attacks from Iranian state-linked sources have increased dramatically in the past weeks as tensions have soared.

The DHS’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said in a statement Saturday that it “is aware of a recent rise in malicious cyber activity directed at United States industries and government agencies by Iranian regime actors and proxies.”

“We will continue to work with our intelligence community and cybersecurity partners to monitor Iranian cyber activity, share information, and take steps to keep America and our allies safe,” the DHS statement added.

The effectiveness of this latest alleged American cyber-attack is completely unknown at this point, and has not been confirmed by either the US or Iranian side.

Assuming it is indeed accurate, there’s little doubt this is a well-timed controlled and purposeful “leak” out of the Pentagon or White House designed to underscore the “tough” response to the Iranians out of Washington.

END
Russia/Iran/USA Europe
On the weekend, Russia announces that it will help provide Iran with oil and banking.  You will recall that the USA will not allow Iran to the use the SWIFT system which is used to pay for goods.  If Europe fails to launch its dollar evading SPV Instex system, then Russia will come to Iran’s aid.
(zerohedge)

Russia Will Help Iran With Oil, Banking If Europe’s SPV Payment Channel Not Launched

With Iran increasingly isolated by the West, even by Europe which last year so vocally opposed the US withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal and vowed to create a mechanism that circumvents SWIFT, only to reduce its opposition to zero after Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Europe if it proceeds with its experiment to bypass the dollarRussia on Friday announced it was ready to help Iran export its crude and ease restrictions on its banking system if Europe fails to launch its dollar-evading SPV, Instex (Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges) with Tehran, according to Interfax and PressTV.

The three European signatories to the 2015 nuclear agreement, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), unveiled late in January the direct non-dollar payment mechanism meant to safeguard their trade ties with Tehran following the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal and in the face of the “toughest ever” sanctions imposed by the United States against the Islamic Republic. In its initial stage, INSTEX would facilitate trade of humanitarian goods such as medicine, food and medical devices, but it will later be expanded to cover other areas of trade, including Iran’s oil sales.

However, it has not resulted in any trade deals so far. In late May, the US threatened Europe with “loss of access to the US financial system” if it rolled out the SWIFT-evading SPV, which appears to have crushed Europe’s enthusiasm to pursue alternative financial transactions with Tehran, forcing it to conceded to Washington (again).

Earlier this month, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Abbas Moussavi said European governments have failed to meet their expectations in implementing INSTEX to protect the JCPOA, criticizing their “lack of will” to deal with America’s pressure against Tehran.

 

“What the Europeans need to do and what they have done so far have failed to win our satisfaction,” the Iranian spokesperson said.

His remarks came after Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in April once again complained about a delay by European partners in the nuclear deal to make operational the payment channel with Tehran, saying they now have “no excuse” for further postponement of the project.

 

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif

In order to begin honoring their commitments, the Europeans were required to set up INSTEX, he explained.

And now that Europe appears to have gotten cold feet about its latest example of anti-Trump virtual signaling, Russia has stepped in. The only question is whether China will follow.

end

Iran/USA

Robert H email to me on the weekend:

a must read….

(courtesy Robert HP

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1391 UP .0027 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.28 UP 0.090 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2743   UP   0.0013  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3135 DOWN .0026 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 27 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.13901 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 6.17 POINTS OR 0.21% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 39.29 POINTS OR 0.14%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,17%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED  

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 39.29 POINTS OR 0.14%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.17 POINTS OR 0.21%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .17% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 27.35  POINTS OR 0.13%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1407.30

silver:$15.37-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.03% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.55 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 96.05 DOWN 17 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.53% DOWN 5 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.15%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.41%//DOWN 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.15 DOWN 0 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 174 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.31% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.44% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1387  DOWN     .0023 or 23 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.39 UP .118 OR YEN DOWN 12  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2725 UP .0006 POUND DOWN 6  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 12 basis points to 1.3198

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.87770    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8734  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8094 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.15%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.02 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.55 DOWN 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.06 DOWN 16  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 2.83  0.07%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 65.35 POINTS OR .53%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 6.62 POINTS 0.12%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 34.70 POINTS or 0.38%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 104,53 POINTS OR 0.49%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 57.16 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 64,42 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE RISES:    62.68  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.36 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 36 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.32 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  57.83//

 

 

BRENT :  64.80

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.01…   VERY DEADLY//

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.55..VERY DEADLY/

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1396 ( UP 31   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.30 UP .021 (YEN DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 95.99 DOWN 23 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2738 UP 8  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8041

 

 

the Russian rouble 62.50   UP 0.49 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 49 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3181 UP 29 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8770  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8857 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.31%

 

The Dow closed  UP 8,41 POINTS OR 0.03%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 26.01 POINTS OR 0.32%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.26 CLOSED DOWN .14

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.349%//libor dropping like a stone

 

 

 

FROM 2.343

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY//

Stocks Slump After Quad-Witch; Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin Jump

Without the quad-witch magic, stocks unable to hold gains as bonds, bullion, and bitcoin all see safe-haven bids…

 

Chinese stocks trod water largely overnight after a big week, with tech and small caps leading the drop…

 

 

European stocks drifted lower for the 3rd day in a row, despite an excited open…

 

Ugly day for Trannies and Small Caps, Dow managed to cling to gains but S&P and Nasdaq scrambled around unch before a weak close (second in a row)…

 

The (cash) opening spike at the open could not hold…

 

Dow Industrials and Transports have notably decoupled…

It’s a serious decoupling…

 

Notably, the decoupling of Small Caps and Trannies occurred when the ammo for short-squeezes ran out…

 

VIX and Stocks remain decoupled…

 

While the so-called Fed model “shows” that stocks are relatively attractive to bonds, Bloomberg’s Ye Xie notes, the risk is that the equity market hasn’t priced in enough potential bad news on earnings and the economy.

 

In fact the last time equities and bonds decoupled this much did not end well…

 

Notably though, equity risk has entirely decoupled from the risk of bonds and bullion – some suggest this as a simple way to quantify the ‘value’ of the ‘Fed Put’ – around equity 25 vol points compression

 

Treasury yields were down a pretty uniform 3-4bps or so across the curve…

 

10Y dropped back to a 2.01% handle once again…

 

And the yield curve flattened…now inverted for 22 days straight…

 

Expectations for a big (50bps) rate-cut in July are surging (now 38%!)

 

Before we leave bondland, this is worth noting – the US yield curve collapse has tracked the same move in the mid to late 1990s… all of which culminated with the collapse and bailout of LTCM (where leveraged bets on correlations exploded)

 

The Dollar Index extended its decline…

 

Falling well below its 200DMA now…

 

A big weekend for crypto saw some selling early today (Litecoin weakest)…

 

Bitcoin was bid multiple times back above $11,000…

 

Bitcoin is tracking the amount of crazy in the world…

 

Gold and Bitcoin have recently become seriously correlated…

 

Gold was the best performing commodity on the day with oil playing a bg catch up into its close…

 

WTI rebounded off $57 once again…

 

Another big day for gold, with futures spiking up to almost $1425…


Gold continues to outpace silver…

 

Finally, when everything is yielding below zero, a zero-yielding asset has more value…

“World-Gone-Mad” premium soars.

end

 

i) Market trading/

 

MARKET TRADING/LATE MORNING

 

 

LATE AFTERNOON

 

ii)Market data/

Although a soft entry data point, it certainly gives us a good idea as to what is going on th the USA economy. The Dallas Fed is generally the strongest of the Fed manufacturing reports.  It tells us manufacturing strength in the Dallas Fort Worth area.  It went from positive 5.3 to negative 12.1 in one month  (very contractionary)

(zerohedge)

“We Cannot Explain It, But We’ve Got Stupid Slow” – Dallas Fed Survey Collapses To 3-Year Lows

‘Soft’ survey data in June has collapsed. On the heels of the plunge in Empire Fed Manufacturing and Philly Fed, Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey just crashed from -5.3 to -12.1 (worse than the weakest analyst estimate) and lowest since June 2016.

Worse still ‘hope’ has plunged into the negative…

 

Respondents are not happy:

“I don’t care what the indicators say—things are slowing down in energy and manufacturing. Construction is still strong(ish). But, customers are shopping every nickel, quoting and requoting; no one wants inventory. Steel prices are dropping like a rock due to lack of demand and overcapacity. It is rough waters right now, for the last 60–90 days.”

China tariffs are a big drain on profits, so we are covering with a general price increase July 1. Future improvements are expected due to new product introductions.”

“We cannot explain it, but we have gotten stupid slow, with incoming orders lagging way behind last year to date. At this rate, this will be the lowest year in over 15 years. All of our customers are complaining about being slow. Perhaps the economy is not in as good a condition—with all the uncertainty coming from Washington, D.C., people are afraid to pull the trigger on projects. Then adding on to our issues, San Antonio is about to implement mandatory paid sick time for hourly workers, adding even more pressure on profits, as we predict there will be widespread abuses of this. Most likely, this will result in a reduction in the workforce to cover the cost.”

“We need all the Democrats and all the Republicans to get on board with efforts to improve trading agreements and open foreign markets to U.S. business. Foreign governments won’t cooperate if we are divided and they think political change will allow them to keep taking advantage of our country’s historically bad trade deals. This political gridlock is hurting American business interests, and the tariffs and fear of increasing tariffs are not good. It is time we get fair trade, and we need everybody working together for the good of the country.”

We note that margin pressure is reasserting itself (Prices paid for raw materials 16.4 from 7.4, Prices received for finished goods 1.2 from 0.7)

Finally there is one silver lining:

“Military apparel orders appear to be strong for the next 12 months.  “

As always, war is a racket.

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Boeing

Over 400 pilots have joined a class action lawsuit against Boeing accusing the company of an “unprecedented cover up”of “known design flaws” on their top selling Boeing 737 Max.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Hundreds Of 737 Max Pilots Sue Boeing Over ‘Unprecedented Cover-Up”

Over 400 pilots have joined a class-action lawsuit against Boeing, accusing the company of an “unprecedented cover-up” of “known design flaws” on the company’s top-selling 737 MAX, according to the Australian Broadcasting Company.

The MAX, first put into service in 2017, was involved in two fatal crashes over the course of a year; the first off the coast of Indonesia in October 2018, killing 189 – and the second in Ethiopia, killing 157.

The lawsuit, filed by a plaintiff who goes by “Pilot X” in court documents out of “fear of reprisal from Boeing and discrimination from Boeing customers,” accuses the Chicago-based aviation giant of “an unprecedented cover-up of the known design flaws of the MAX, which predictably resulted in the crashes of two MAX aircraft and subsequent grounding of all MAX aircraft worldwide.”

 

The pilots argue that they “suffer and continue to suffer significant lost wages, among other economic and non-economic damages” since the fleet was grounded across the globe.

The lawsuit focuses on the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) anti-stall system, which Pilot X claims gave the aircraft “inherently dangerous aerodynamic handling defects.”

The reason for this handling quirk was by design, as Boeing made the decision to retrofit newer, large fuel-efficient engines onto an existing 737 model’s fuselage, in order to create the MAX.

The larger engines caused a change in aerodynamics which made the plane prone to pitching up during flight, so much so, that it risked a crash as a result of an aerodynamic stall.

To stop this from happening, Boeing introduced MCAS software to the MAX, which automatically tilted the plane down if the software detected that the plane’s nose was pointing at too steep of an angle, known as a high Angle of Attack (AOA). –ABC

 

Via ABC.net.au

In May, we reported that Boeing designers also altered a MCAS toggle switch panel that could have prevented both of the deadly crashes. 

On the older 737 NG, the right switch was labeled “AUTO PILOT” – and allowed pilots to deactivate the plane’s automated stabilizer controls, such as the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS), suspected to be the culprit in both crashes. The left toggle switch on the NG would deactivate the buttons on the yoke which pilots regularly use to control the horizontal stabilizer.

On the 737 MAX, however, the two switches were altered to perform the same function, according to internal documents reviewed by the Times, so that they would disable all electronic stabilizer controls – including the MCAS and the thumb buttons on the yoke used to control the stabilizer.

During the October Lion Air flight, pilots were reportedly unaware of how to troubleshoot the MCAS system – while the day beforean off-duty pilot with knowledge of the stabilizer controls helped pilots disable the system on the same plane. Data from the flight revealed that the repeated commands from the MCAS system sent the flight from Bali to Jakarta plummeting into the sea.

In a rush to bring the plane to customers, Boeing did not alert pilots to the software in a bid to prevent “any new training that required a simulator” — a decision that was also designed to save MAX customers money.

Pilot X, alleges that Boeing “decided not to tell MAX pilots about the MCAS or to require MAX pilots to undergo any MCAS training” so that its customers could deploy pilots on “revenue-generating routes as quickly as possible”.

In March, a report from the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) found that the system was only mentioned once in the aircraft manual, which was in the glossary, explaining the MCAS acronym — an omission Boeing did not deny in response to the CBC. –ABC

The pilots who have joined the lawsuit hope to “deter Boeing and other airplane manufacturers from placing corporate profits ahead of the lives of the pilots, crews, and general public they service.”

end

 

end
Trump who gets it, scolds Powell again
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Slams “Stubborn Child” Powell: Market Would Be “Thousands Of Points Higher” But Fed “Blew It”

 

Having confirmed his view over the weekend that he has the power to demote Fed Chair Jay Powell, President Trump has taken to Twitter this morning to explain his thoughts as to how the central bank – more specifically Powell – has hurt the economy and market (and implicitly his election chances).

Trump started by claiming thatthe “Federal Reserve that doesn’t know what it is doing” citing the following as why they are clueless: “raised rates far to fast (very low inflation, other parts of world slowing, lowering & easing) & did large scale tightening, $50 Billion/month” but noting that despite all that “we are on course to have one of the best Months of June in U.S. history.” This will be the best June since 1995 if these gains hold until the G-20.

And then he forecasts what could have been if “the Fed had gotten it right”… “Thousands of points higher on the Dow, and GDP in the 4’s or even 5’s.”

Trump then gets personal: “Now they stick, like a stubborn child, when we need rates cuts, & easing, to make up for what other countries are doing against us. Blew it!”

With stocks at record highs and market expectations for Fed dovishness at record highs, Trump is right on one thing, if Powell doesn’t do as the market wants, there will be carnage.

 

end

Trump is correct: why is the USA protecting the shipping lanes in the Gulf for zero compensation.

(zerohedge)

Trump: Why Protect Other Countries’ Shipping Lanes For “Zero Compensation”? 

Following statements on Meet the PressSunday where he said “I was against going into the Middle East,” and lamenting that “we’ve spent 7 trillion dollars” there, Trump continued his theme of drawing down in the region on Twitter, saying Monday morning it’s time for China and others to protect their own ships in the Persian Gulf.

“China gets 91% of its Oil from the Straight, Japan 62%, & many other countries likewise.” Trump tweeted, making the common mistake of spelling the word “strait” wrong.

“So why are we protecting the shipping lanes for other countries (many years) for zero compensation,” he questioned. “All of these countries should be protecting their own ships on what has always be

 

a must read..

 

(courtesy zerohedge)en a dangerous journey.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

China gets 91% of its Oil from the Straight, Japan 62%, & many other countries likewise. So why are we protecting the shipping lanes for other countries (many years) for zero compensation. All of these countries should be protecting their own ships on what has always been….

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….a dangerous journey. We don’t even need to be there in that the U.S. has just become (by far) the largest producer of Energy anywhere in the world! The U.S. request for Iran is very simple – No Nuclear Weapons and No Further Sponsoring of Terror!

“We don’t even need to be there in that the U.S. has just become (by far) the largest producer of Energy anywhere in the world! The U.S. request for Iran is very simple – No Nuclear Weapons and No Further Sponsoring of Terror!” he concluded.

There was no immediate reaction in oil price in response to Trump’s signaling the US could be no longer willing to protect international shipping following the June 13 tanker attack incident in the Gulf of Oman, and following last week’s dramatic events which almost witnessed the US and Iran go to war.

Indeed according to 2018 figures some 62% of Japan’s oil does get imported via the Strait of Hormuz; however, China’s imports are more diverse (Trump claimed 91% comes through the strait), given its diverse network of oil imports, notably also a pipeline from Russia.

end

SWAMP STORIES

Trump throws Bolton under the bus exactly what Tom Luongo thought he would do
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Unleashes On Uber-Hawk Bolton: We’d Be Fighting “The Whole World At One Time”

In a stunningly frank moment during a Sunday Meet the Press interview focused on President Trump’s decision-making on Iran, especially last week’s “brink of war” moment which saw Trump draw down readied military forces in what he said was a “common sense” move, the commander in chief threw his own national security advisor under the bus in spectacular fashion.

Though it’s not Trump’s first tongue-in-cheek denigration of Bolton’s notorious hawkishness, it’s certainly the most brutal and blunt take down yet, and frankly just plain enjoyable to watch. When host Chuck Todd asked the president if he was “being pushed into military action against Iran” by his advisers in what was clearly a question focused on Bolton first and foremost, Trump responded:

“John Bolton is absolutely a hawk. If it was up to him he’d take on the whole world at one time, okay?”

Embedded video

Meet the Press

@MeetThePress

WATCH: President Trump tells Chuck Todd that he has doves and hawks in his cabinet.

Trump: “I have some hawks. John Bolton is absolutely a hawk. If it was up to him he’d take on the whole world at one time.“

Trump began by explaining, “I have two groups of people. I have doves and I have hawks,” before leading into this sure to be classic line that is one for the history books:“If it was up to him he’d take on the whole world at one time, okay?”

During this section of comments focused on US policy in the Middle East, the president reiterated his preference that he hear from “both sides” on an issue, but that he was ultimately the one making the decisions.

When pressed on the dangers of having such an uber-hawk neo-conservative who remains an unapologetic cheerleader of the 2003 Iraq War, and who laid the ground work for it as a member of Bush’s National Security Council, Trump followed with, “That doesn’t matter because I want both sides.”

 

Image source: Reuters

And in another clear indicator that Trump wants to stay true to his non-interventionist instincts voiced on the 2016 campaign trail, he explained to Todd that:

I was against going into Iraq… I was against going into the Middle East. Chuck we’ve spent 7 trillion dollars in the Middle East right now.

It was the second time this weekend that Trump was forced to defend his choice of Bolton as the nation’s most influential foreign policy thinker and adviser. When peppered with questions at the White House Saturday following Thursday night’s dramatic “almost war” with Iran, Trump said that he “disagrees” with Bolton “very much” but that ultimately he’s “doing a very good job”.

Bolton has never kept his career-long goal of seeing regime change in Tehran a secret – repeating his position publicly every chance he got, especially in the years prior to tenure at the Trump White House.

Tucker’s epic “bureaucratic tapeworm” comment:

But Bolton hasn’t had a good past week: not only had Trump on Thursday night shut the door on Bolton’s dream of overseeing a major US military strike on Iran, but he’s been pummeled in the media.

Even a Fox prime time show (who else but Tucker of course) colorfully described him as a “bureaucratic tapeworm” which periodically reemerges to cause pain and suffering.

END

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Well that about does it for tonight

I will see you on TUESDAY night

H

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