JUNE 25 TODAY IS COMEX OPTION’S EXPIRY SO THE BANKERS PROVIDED A LITTLE RAID ON OUR SILVER AND GOLD: GOLD WAS UP ONLY $1.35 AFTER BEING UP 25 DOLLARS EARLY IN THE SESSION//SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TO $15.15//GLD CONTINUES TO ADD PAPER GOLD INTO ITS INVENTORY: GLD INVENTORY RISES BY 1.95 TONNES TO 801.95 TONNES///TRUMP THREATENS TO CUT OFF 3 BANKS FROM THE SWIFT PAYMENT SYSTEM// LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A BONA FIDA BANK RUN IN FRANCE AT NATIXIS//HUGE IRAN AND TURKEY STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

 

 

GOLD: $1415.30  UP $1.30 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $15,15 DOWN 25 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)//

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1423.40

 

silver:  $15.38

TODAY IS OPTIONS EXPIRY DAY FOR THE COMEX AND IT IS NOT SURPRISING TO SEE A LITTLE RAID. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, THE RAID COMMENCES EXACTLY WHEN LONDON IS CLOSED. THE BANKERS ARE VERY AFRAID TO SUPPLY PAPER IN THE PHYSICAL TIME ZONES FOR FEAR THAT SOMEBODY WILL TAKE PHYSICAL POSITION ON THEM. BANKERS TIME FRAME IS LESS THAN ONE DAY.  THEY WILL START TO WORRY ABOUT DELIVERIES ON THE SHORTS COMMENCING TOMORROW.

 

LBMA/OTC OPTIONS EXPIRY IS THIS FRIDAY, JUNE 29/AT AROUND NOON.

 

 

YOUR DATA…

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan for the past several has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 3/61

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JUNE 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,414.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/24/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 06/26/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
661 C JP MORGAN 3
690 C ABN AMRO 8
737 C ADVANTAGE 53 47
905 C ADM 4
991 H CME 3
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 61 61
MONTH TO DATE: 2,367

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 61 NOTICE(S) FOR 6100 OZ (0.1897 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  2367 NOTICES FOR 236700 OZ  (7.3623 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JUNE

 

 

4 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 20,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 532 for   2,660,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 11,393 UP 340 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 11,410 UP 349

 

 

 

 

end

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE A CONSIDERABLE  SIZED 2306 CONTRACTS FROM 229,225 UP TO 231,601 WITH THE 11 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

0 FOR JUNE, 2291 FOR JULY. 0 FOR AUGUST, 0 FOR SEPT, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  2291 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2291 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2291 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 11.455 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 11 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING AT THE SILVER COMEX LAST NIGHT..AND ZERO SPREADING ACCUMULATION AND OR LIQUIDATION.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JUNE:

43,478 CONTRACTS (FOR 17 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 43,478 CONTRACTS) OR 217.390 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2558 CONTRACTS OR 12.78 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JUNE:  217.390 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 31.04% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1088.16   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2306, WITH THE 11 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2291 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS WILL RESUME THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES FOR SILVER ONCE THE JUNE CONTRACT COMMENCES IN EARNEST….

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 4597 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 2291 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 2306  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A  11 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.40 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.158 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 165% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 4 NOTICE(S) FOR 20,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING:  IT LOOKS LIKE THEY TOOK A HIATUS FROM SPREADING LIQUIDATION 

 

 

 

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCHED TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A LARGE 11,014 CONTRACTS, TO 583,907 ACCOMPANYING THE  $1.30 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS STOPPED, THESE SPREADERS HAVE ALREADY MORPHED INTO SILVER AND THEY ARE INTO THE LIQUIDATION PHASE OF THEIR OPERATION ALTHOUGH TODAY THEY TOOK A HIATUS. THUS THE GAIN IN OI FOR GOLD IS REAL AS INVESTORS ARE MASSIVELY POURING INTO THE GOLD SECTOR  

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 10,290 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS, AUGUST 2019: 9990 CONTRACTS, DEC>  300 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 583,907.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 21,304 CONTRACTS: 11,014 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 10,290 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 21,304 CONTRACTS OR 2,130,400 OZ OR 66.26 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A  GAIN OF $18.00 IN GOLD TRADING.AND WITH THAT HUGE GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 82.90  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER.

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE : 170,784 CONTRACTS OR 17,078,400 oz OR 531.20 TONNES (17 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 10,046 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 531.20 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 531.20/3550 x 100% TONNES =14.95% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     2,778.67 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED  SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 11,014 WITH THE PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK ON YESTERDAY($18.00)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 10,290 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 10,290 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 21,304 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

10,290 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 11,014 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 66.26 TONNES). ..AND THIS INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $18.00 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE  HAD ZERO PRESENCE OF SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN GOLD  ///TODAY/

 

 

 

we had:  61 notice(s) filed upon for 6100 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $1.30 TODAY//

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF: 1.95 TONNES

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 801.98 TONNES

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY:

 

NO CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO SILVER INVENTORY  AT THE SILVER SLV:

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2306 CONTRACTS from 229,225 UP TO 231,601 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER AND STOPPED THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS IN GOLD

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 2291 CONTRACTS FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 0  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2291 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2306  CONTRACTS TO THE 2291 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A  HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 4597 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE COMEX OI SPREADING LIQUIDATION TAKING A ONE DAY HIATUS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 22.98  MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY AND NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE.

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 11 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2291 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.07 POINTS OR 0.50%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 327.02 POINTS OR 1.15%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 92.18 POINTS OR 0.25%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .16%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8804 /Oil UP TO 57.71 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.46 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8804 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8796 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 China/Chinese affairs

 

 

i)China/

China is witnessing huge banking stress as Shibor tumbles to its lowest level in a decade:  below 1% at .98%

( zerohedge)

ii)A super commentary as Michael Every outlines the 4 major problem areas facing the globe

  1. The upcoming Trump -Xi meeting//
  2. North Korea vs the USA on thwarting North Korea’s nuclear ambitions
  3. Turkey vs USA (is Turkey facing east?)
  4. geopolitical risks vs central banking risk

plus others deadly combos

(courtesy Michael Every/Rabobank)

iii)Oh OH  this is going to hurt:  Trump threatens to cut off 3 major Chinese  banks from SWIFT..that would be a killer blow

( zero hedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)FRANCE

Investors are panicking as large French bank Natixis imploding hedge fund, marks down the assets from true fair value in order to stop redemptions

 

( zerohedge)

i b)We now have a bona fida bank run on Natixis

(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAN/USA

The truth behind the drone attack and Trumps next move trying to save face

( TomLuongo)

ii)Iran
Iran furious with USA sanctions as the vow diplomacy has been closed forever
( zerohedge)
iii)The war of words continue between Trump and the Supreme leader of Iran
(courtesy zerohedge)

iv)Turkey/USA

Two important points here:

  1. The uSA will not sell Turkey the F 35’s
  2. Turkey will certainly buy the Russian Sam 400

then the fun  begins because Turkey houses the 2nd largest NATO forces  (after Germany) inside Incirlik,Turkey.

(courtesy zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

a)Mexico

Amazing 15,000  Mexican troops are deployed to the USA border

(courtesy zerohedge)

b)FROM LONDON’S FINANCIAL TIMES:

This is just the beginning of the outlawing of offshore accounts…Lloyds freezes 8,000 offshore accounts.

(courtesy London’s Financial Times)

c)Global iphones

This certainly gives you a good idea as to what is happening with world growth: it is plummeting. iphone calls are collapsing and that is triggering a serious breach of contract with Samsung.

(courtesy zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

A must read…

Trump boasts about the huge production of shale gas and oil.  The problem is these industries are bleeding red ink and now we learn that there might be some major health issues.

(Nick Cunningham/OilPrice.com)

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

i)VENEZUELA/

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

a)The once powerful Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe) crumbles as the leaders declare that the interim RTGS dollar is the sole legal currency.  They are trying to stop the black market but it is far too late

( Reuters)

b)An interview you do not want to miss as Claudio Glass interview Chris Powell

(courtesy Chris Powell/Claudio Glass)

c)Dave Kranzler discusses the use of EFP to avoid delivery at the comex.  He discusses the huge number of paper contracts against the tiny amount of physical around.  He should have also mentioned that the supposed physical metal at the comex has already been leased out and or hypothecated.  Raids will be next to impossible.

( Dave \kranzler.IRD)

d)Craig Hemke believes as do I that gold is now in a bull phase but will be attacked by our bankers.  Their problem is lack of physical which will make raids almost impossible

(courtesy Craig Hemke/Sprott/GATA)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

 

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

II)MARKET TRADING/USA

 

 

ii)Market data/USA

a)Not good for the uSA economy: home price appreciation slows for the 13th straight month

( zerohedge)

b)Not good: home sales are a huge part of GDP.  May sales crash to the weakest in a year

( zerohedge)

c)Another indicator of problems in the USA economy:  consumer confidence collapses(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

FED- ex is one of the best Bellwether indicators out there for global growth.  They just warned of continued weakness in global trade

( zerohedge)

SWAMP STORIES

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
end
LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 11,014 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 583,907 ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE RISE OF $18.00 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 10,290 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

0 FOR JUNE ’19: 0 CONTRACTS , AUG; 9990 CONTRACTS: DEC: 300   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  10,290 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 21,304 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 10,290 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 11,014 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  21,304 CONTRACTS OR 2,130,400 OZ OR 66.26 TONNES.

 

We are now in the  active contract month of JUNE and here the open interest stands at 196 CONTRACTS as we HAD A GAIN OF 33 contracts.  We had  2 notices filed yesterday so we  gained another of 35 contracts or 3500 oz of gold that will stand for delivery as there appears to be some gold at the comex  as they will now try their luck on finding the fast vanishing supplies of physical gold over here.  The next contract month is the non active month of July and here the OI FELL by 102 contracts DOWN to 1085 contracts.  The next big active month for deliverable gold is August and here the OI ROSE by a STRONG 8360 contracts UP to 430,368.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 61 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  6100 OZ. (0.1897 TONNES)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2306 CONTRACTS FROM 229,225 UP TO 231,304 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A  11 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.  HERE WE HAVE 4 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 98 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 102 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 4 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 20,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL ATTEMPT TO STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

THE NEXT MONTH AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY.  HERE THE OI FELL BY 21,793 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 52,987. AS WE START TO GET READY FOR THE ACTIVE AND STRONG JULY SILVER DELIVERY MONTH AS THERE ARE ONLY 3 DAYS LEFT BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE.  WE GAINED 15 CONTRACTS OF OI FOR AUGUST TO STAND AT 960. THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 20,341 CONTRACTS UP TO 126,510 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 4 notice(s) filed for 20,000 OZ for the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 621,948  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  392,151  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JUNE/GOLD

June 25/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
2025.45 oz
Scotia
63 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz  

nil

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
61 notice(s)
 6100 OZ
(0.1897 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
135 contracts
(13,500 oz)
0.4199 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2367 notices
236,700 OZ
7.3623  TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into Everybody else: nil  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ zero amount  arrived   today

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i ) out of Scotia:  2025.45 oz

63 kilobars

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 2025.45   oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today

FOR THE JUNE 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 61 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 3 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2367) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JUNE. (196 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (61 x 100 oz per contract) equals 250,200 OZ OR 7.7822 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (2361 x 100 oz)  + (235)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (61 x 100 oz )which equals 250,200 oz standing OR 7.7822 TONNES in this  active delivery month of JUNE.

We GAINED 35  contracts or an additional 3500 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. Somebody was in need of physical gold badly on this side of the pond.

 

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 10.08 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 7.7822 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  322,910.634 oz or  10.043 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,691,811.784 oz 239.24 tonnes

 

 

 

 OPEN INTERESTS FOR THE UPCOMING JUNE 2019 CONTRACT VS JUNE 2018

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE INITIAL JUNE 2018 CONTRACT WE HAD A HUGE 32.152 TONNES STAND. (VS 7.7822 TONNES TODAY/JUNE 2019)

HOWEVER BY MONTH’S END ONLY 21.56 TONNES EVENTUALLY STOOD AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.  AS YOU CAN SEE, THE CROOKS ARE FOLLOWING THE SAME FORMAT OF MORPHING VS LAST YEAR AS ONLY GOLD VAPOUR SEEMS TO BE PHYSICALLY PRESENT AT THE COMEX AND LONGS MUST TRY THEIR LUCK IN LONDON.

IN THE LAST 32 MONTHS 117 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF June

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
JUNE 25  2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 632,129.341 oz
Int Delaware
Delaware
HSBC

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,569,808.211 oz
CNT
JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)
4
CONTRACT(S)
20,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 532 contracts

2,660,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  374,172.27  oz

ii)into CNT:  1,195,635.941 oz

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.76 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.33% of all official comex silver. (153.76 million/305.5 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  1,569,808.211  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) out of Delaware  2716.500 oz

ii) Out of Int. Delaware: 29,215.641 oz

iii) Out of HSBC:  600,197.200 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total 632,129.341  oz

 

we had 0 adjustments :

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  86.515 million

total dealer + customer silver:  305.509 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JUNE 2019. contract month is represented by 4 contract(s) FOR 20,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 532 x 5,000 oz = 2,660,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE. (4) and the number of notices served upon today (4 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JUNE/2019 contract month: 532(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE( 4) number of notices served upon today (4)x 5000 oz equals 2,640,000 oz of silver standing for the JN contract month.

WE GAINED 4 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 20,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.  IT SEEMS THAT SOMEBODY WAS BADLY IN NEED OF PHYSICAL SILVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 102 notice(s) filed for 510,000 OZ for the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  225,490 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 175,751 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 175,751 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 87.87 million  OZ 125% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -0.54% June 25/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.51% to NAV (JUNE 25/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -0.54%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.90 TRADING 13.37/DISCOUNT 4.06

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JUNE 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.30 (AND WAY UP BEFORE THE BANKERS WHACKED) WE WITNESSED ANOTHER 1.95 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 801.98 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.00 A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 34.93 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.03 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD UP $  2.90, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT: 764.10 TONNES

June 20/WITH GOLD UP $47.95, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONES

JUNE 18/JUNE 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

 

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 14/ WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

june 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.70 TONNES

JUNE 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.65 CENTS TODAY: A TINY CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .24 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.42 TONNES

june 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

jUNE 6/WITH GOLD UP  $8.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $6.00 TODAY/STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

JUNE 4/WITH GOLD UP 0.85 TODAY: A MONSTROUS PAPER GAIN OF 16.44 TONNES/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.65 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD UP $17.50 TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE, A DEPOSIT OF 2.35 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//

MAY 31/WITH GOLD UP $17.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES

MAY 30: WI6H GOLD UP $6.40 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES

MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES

MAY 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES

MAY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.81 TONNES

MAY 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY: A STRANGE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FORM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738,81 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JUNE 25/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 801.98 tonnes

*IN LAST 617 TRADING DAYS: 132.78 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 517 TRADING DAYS: A NET 32.85 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 20/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 18 WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP XXX CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.413 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 11/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 12 CENTS, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 9 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZE DEPOSIT OF 630,087 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.396 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.434 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 4/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//

MAY 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 422,000 OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ/

May 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ///

MAY 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ/

MAY 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

 

 

JUNE 25/2019:

 

Inventory 319.819 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.07/ and libor 6 month duration 2.21

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .14

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.90%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.18

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.28

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

If Gold

 

ii) Physical stories courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

The once powerful Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe) crumbles as the leaders declare that the interim RTGS dollar is the sole legal currency.  They are trying to stop the black market but it is far too late

(courtesy Reuters)

Zimbabwe declares interim RTGS dollar its sole legal currency

 Section: 

By Nelson Banya
Reuters
Monday, June 24, 2019

HARARE, Zimbabwe — Zimbabwe today declared its interim currency to be the country’s sole legal tender in a bid to stem black-market demand for foreign currencies.

The Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) dollar was introduced in February as a first step toward a new currency by year’s end, a key part of President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s plan to stabilise an economy racked by inflation and widespread shortages.

… 

The British pound, United States dollar, South African rand, Botswana pula, and any other foreign currency whatsoever shall no longer be legal tender alongside the Zimbabwe dollar in any transactions in Zimbabwe,” a government notice said.

Zimbabwe adopted the U.S. dollar as its official currency in 2009, when most Zimbabweans had already ditched the hyperinflation-wrecked Zimbabwe Dollar.

However the latest iteration of the domestic currency, the RTGS, has struggled to gain trust among large firms and ordinary Zimbabweans. Economic analysts fear 2009 may be repeating itself with the interim currency. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://af.reuters.com/article/zimbabweNews/idAFL8N23V2BJ

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

An interview you do not want to miss as Claudio Glass interview Chris Powell

(courtesy Chris Powell/Claudio Glass)

Gold is the secret knowledge of the financial universe, GATA secretary says

 Section: 

10:32 ET Monday, June 24, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold is the secret knowledge of the financial universe, your secretary/treasurer remarks in an interview, published today, with the Swiss precious metals advisory service proprietor Claudio Grass.

“Controlling the gold price is the first objective of central banking,” your secretary/treasurer adds, “since a free-market gold price would allow the monetary metal to compete with government currencies and diminish demand for government bonds.”

… 

The interview covers parts of the history of central banking’s longstanding policy of intervening in the markets against gold, as well as the possibility that central banks will need to revalue gold upward to offset the burden of rapidly rising debt.

The interview is headlined “Gold Is the Secret Knowledge of the Financial Universe” and it’s posted at the gold-focused German internet site ProAurum here:

https://newsroom.proaurum.de/gold-the-secret-knowledge-of-financial-univ…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

END

Dave Kranzler discusses the use of EFP to avoid delivery at the comex.  He discusses the huge number of paper contracts against the tiny amount of physical around.  He should have also mentioned that the supposed physical metal at the comex has already been leased out and or hypothecated.  Raids will be next to impossible.

(courtesy Dave \kranzler.IRD)

Dave Kranzler: Central banks and bullion banks mobilizing for another gold smash

 Section: 

5:23p ET Monday, June 24, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

If the past is any guide, Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics in Denver writes today, central banks and bullion banks are gathering their forces — their naked shorting — for a smashing of the gold futures price in the next 10 days. Even so, Kranzler writes, the gold price lately has been establishing both higher highs and higher lows. “This tells us that the Western central bank/bullion bank effort to control the price of gold is limited in its success,” Kranzler writes. “This is likely because of immense demand from Eastern hemisphere buyers (central banks, investors, citizens) who require actual physical delivery.”

Kranzler’s analysis is headlined “Gold Is Going Higher but Brace Yourself for Volatility” and it’s posted at IRD here:

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/gold-is-going-higher-but-brace-you…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Craig Hemke believes as do I that gold is now in a bull phase but will be attacked by our bankers.  Their problem is lack of physical which will make raids almost impossible

(courtesy Craig Hemke/Sprott/GATA)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Recognition and adjustment

 Section: 

7p ET Monday, June 24, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Now that the world has realized that central banks are faking it, Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report writes tonight at Sprott Money, the next bull market in gold has begun.

“Of course the Comex precious metals will never move straight up and never without bank interference,” Hemke writes. “This bull market will undoubtedly unfold just as the past one did: with one step back for every two steps forward. Momentum will ebb and flow while the commitment of traders reports will get heavy and due for occasional ‘washes.’ But what you’re about to see is something like what we saw in the run from 2009 through 2011.”

From his lips to the Great Market Manipulator’s ear, and we don’t mean that other Powell.

Hemke’s commentary is headlined “Recognition and Adjustment” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/recognition-and-adjustment-craig-hemke-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

iii) Other physical stories:

Not only is India bring in massive amounts of gold but they are also bringing in tonnes of silver

(courtesy Lawrie Williams)

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Swiss gold exports – India surges back on top in MayFor most months in the past year or so, the primary recipient of gold exports from the Swiss gold refineries has been Greater China (Mainland plus Hong Kong) with that other top gold consumer, India, as something of an ‘also ran’. But recently we have reported that Chinese demand may be slipping, while India’s is picking up and the latest figures from the Swiss Customs Administration confirm this point strongly.For the month of May, Indian imports of gold from Switzerland accounted for over half the latter nation’s gold exports, amounting to 53.2 tonnes while Mainland China and Hong Kong between them received only 22.5 tonnes of gold from the Swiss refineries. These refineries specialise in re-refining larger ‘good delivery’ gold bars, doré bullion from mines around the world and gold scrap, converting it into the smaller sizes of ultra high purity gold most in demand in the key Asian markets. The Swiss refineries have largely cornered the market in this business, exporting, for example, some 1,473 tonnes of re-refined gold last year. This year overall gold exports from Switzerland seem to have been on the decline but will still likely be around between 500 and 600 tonnes in the first half of the year and may well pick up in the second half = particularly given the recent significant rise in gold prices.Once again the vast majority of Swiss gold exports were destined for Asian and Middle Eastern markets – around 80.5% and it was perhaps significant that the total exported to Mainland China far exceeded than to Hong Kong once again demonstrating that the latter’s consumption and trade can no longer be taken as a proxy for China as a whole.Another perhaps significant trend in Swiss gold exports can be seen in small, but significant, volumes going to key European nations France (9.6 tonnes), Germany (3.6 tonnes) and Italy (2.1 tonnes). This could indicate a pick-up in Western demand for gold within Europe. These levels need to be watched in future months.But overall the latest Swiss gold export figures confirm the continuing flow of gold from West to East, with Asian demand in particular seen as remaining in stronger hands than in the West which sees more volatile trading patterns. Even so the massive increase last week of gold taken into the world’s biggest gold ETF, GLD, (see: GLD adds massive 35 tonnes of gold Friday) and another small accumulation yesterday, suggests gold is coming back into investment favour with the big money! Generally nervous equities markets have only served to accentuate the trend. Chinese demand may, for the time being, have weakened due to nervousness over U.S. imposed tariffs, but underlying demand there also looks to be positive and with domestic production seemingly falling there has to be a good chance that imports will have to strengthen to counter any shortfall.25 Jun 2019-END-

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end

 

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8804/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8796   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 26.07 POINTS OR 0.87%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 327.02 POINTS OR 1.15%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 92.18 POINTS OR 0.43%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 96.05/Euro FALLS TO 1.1382

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.16/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.04/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.71 and Brent: 64.46

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.32%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.19% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.40%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.53: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.54

3k Gold at $1327.30 silver at: 15.39   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 20/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.75

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.04 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9771 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1121 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.32%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.01% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.53%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7746..

Global Stocks, S&P Futures Hit By Iran Tensions, G20 Fears

US equity futures dipped in the red, following European and Asian shares lower, amid renewed Iran tensions and trade jitters ahead of this week’s G-20 meeting…

 

 

… while the risk of more easing from the Feder

al Reserve and its central bank peers inflated gold to six-year highs, its price surging as high as $1,440 and stoked demand for safe-harbor currencies like the yen and Swiss franc and pushed bitcoin to new highs.

 

Investor mood soured overnight when in the aftermath of the latest US sanctions, this time targeting Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top officials, Iran said the path to a diplomatic solution with the U.S. had closed.

“The futile sanctions against the Iranian leader and the country’s chief diplomat mean the permanent closure of the diplomatic path with the government of the United States,” the Foreign Ministry’s spokesman, Abbas Mousavi, was quoted as saying by semi-official Iranian Students News Agency. “The Trump government is in the process of destroying all the established international mechanisms for maintaining global peace and security.”

Treasury futures rose and most global stock markets slipped as the increasing Gulf tensions rattled investors. Oil steadied after rallying almost 8% in three days as investors weighed mixed signals from the White House on Iran and signs that an extension of the OPEC+ production cuts may not be assured.

The move was a further concern for investors waiting anxiously to see if anything comes of Sino-U.S. trade talks later this week, with sentiment not helped after a senior U.S. official said president Donald Trump would be happy with “any outcome” from the trade talks with China, suggesting Trump was not in a concessionary mood.

“Our view is that because of the very high global economic uncertainty markets have become very twitchy and can move a long way on not much news like Trump’s meeting with Xi at the G20,” Gerry Fowler, global multi-asset strategist at Aberdeen Standard Investments, told Reuters. “At the moment, the data looks okay but the sentiment has deteriorated and we expect that to continue in the second half of the year,” he added.

As a result, the European STOXX 600 index fell 0.3%, with the technology sector bucking the trend on the back of Capgemini’s purchase of engineering and digital services company Altran for 3.6 billion euros ($4.10 billion). Capgemini shares rose 7% and those in rival SAP SE 0.3%, pushing the sector around half a percent up. Altran surged 21%. European pharma shares rose following news that Abbvie would acquire botox maker Allergan for $63 billion.

Earlier in the session Asian stocks retreated, as Chinese banks led financials lower following a U.S. media report that some of them were involved in a probe on alleged violation of sanctions against North Korea. Most markets in the region fell, with China and Hong Kong driving losses. Japan’s Topix closed 0.3% lower as the yen strengthened against the dollar and as investors weighed the latest developments surrounding Iran and U.S.-China talks. Sony and Daiichi Sankyo were among the biggest drags. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.9%, snapping a six-day rising streak, with large banks and insurers dragging down the gauge. China Merchants Bank Co., Bank of Communications Co. and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. fell in Shanghai and Hong Kong trading after the Washington Post said that a U.S. judge found three unidentified Chinese lenders in contempt for refusing to comply with subpoenas related to the probe. The S&P BSE Sensex Index advanced 0.7%, driven by Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank, as India is said to consider offering incentives to attract companies moving out of China.

Japanese stocks were also spooked after Bloomberg reported President Donald Trump has recently mused to confidants about withdrawing from a longstanding defense treaty with Japan that he thinks treats the U.S. unfairly.

Emerging-market stocks slipped while currencies were mixed as geopolitical tensions before the upcoming G-20 summit weighed on investor sentiment. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of stocks fell by the most in more than a week, while its currency counterpart was little changed as the dollar steadied after five days of decline. South Africa’s rand gained, while the Hungarian forint was the biggest decliner versus the greenback ahead of a central-bank interest rate decision. “We continue to see a 75% chance that the summit will resume negotiations but also a 60% chance that the negotiations will fail,” said Eddie Cheung, a Hong-Kong based strategist at Credit Agricole. “The key in the near run is the detailed outcome of the presidents’ meeting, which we believe will be short-term positive for sentiment.”

In rates, yields on 10-year Treasuries have dived 120 basis points since November and, at 1.99%, are almost back to where they were before Trump was elected in late 2016. German 10-year bund yields hit a new record low of 0.332%, down 2 basis points on the day.

 

In FX, the dollar stabilized after falling for four sessions in a row against a basket of other currencies to stand at a three-month low of 95.989. “USD DXY now looks likely to break through the March low of 95.76 and below there 95.0,” said Tapas Strickland, a markets strategist at NAB. “The drivers here continue to be heightened expectations of the Fed cutting rates – now 3.1 cuts priced by years’ end,” he said, noting that a number of index trackers showed the dataflow from the United States was now showing more disappointing misses than Europe.

The euro hit a three-month high of $1.1412, before retracing some gains having gained 2.0% from a two-week low of $1.1181 touched a week ago as the dollar has lost steam. It last stood at $1.1396. Against the safe-harbor yen, the dollar hit its lowest since the January flash crash at 106.79. Dealers also noted a report from Bloomberg that Trump had privately mused about ending the postwar defense pact with Japan. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar fell to its lowest in nine months and was last at 0.9755.

In commodities, oil prices lost some ground on Tuesday, after rising sharply last week in reaction to tensions between the United States and Iran. Brent crude futures eased 0.4% to $64.58 while U.S. crude fell 0.3% to $57.75 a barrel

Looking at today’s events, there are no fewer than five Fed policy makers speaking on Tuesday, including Chair Jerome Powell, and markets assume they will stick with the recent dovish message.

“It’s always possible the chair could walk back some of the market’s dovish interpretation of last week’s FOMC meeting…but we suspect he will reinforce the message laid out last week,” said Kevin Cummins, a senior U.S. economist at NatWest Markets. “By the end of July, we believe the Fed will have seen enough to decide that action to counter downside economic risks and low inflation/inflation expectations is warranted, and so we look for a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting.” For now, markets are running well ahead of that with futures pricing in a quarter-point easing and imply around a 40% chance of a 50bps move.

 

 

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2,946.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.09% to 383.44
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 159.35
  • MXAPJ down 0.4% to 523.94
  • Nikkei down 0.4% to 21,193.81
  • Topix down 0.3% to 1,543.49
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.2% to 28,185.98
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 2,982.07
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 39,360.47
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 6,658.03
  • Kospi down 0.2% to 2,121.64
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.0 bps to -0.317%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1385
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to 1.791%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to 0.397%
  • Brent futures down 0.1% to $64.79/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.8% to $1,430.39
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.00

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • U.S. officials sought to play down expectations for a highly- anticipated meeting between President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping this week, insisting the U.S. wasn’t prepared to compromise on its demands for meaningful Chinese economic reforms
  • U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer spoke by phone with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Monday, a USTR spokesman said. President Trump plans to meet with Xi, Putin, Erdogan this week at G-20
  • Trump has recently mused to confidants about withdrawing from a longstanding defense treaty with Japan, according to three people familiar with the matter. He regards the accord as too one-sided because it promises U.S. aid if Japan is ever attacked, but doesn’t oblige Japan’s military to come to America’s defense
  • Iran said the path to a diplomatic solution with the U.S. had closed after the Trump administration imposed sanctions against its supreme leader and other top officials, raising tensions days after the downing of an American drone brought the Middle East to the brink of war
  • China banks dropped after the Washington Post reported they may face the fallout from a U.S. probe into North Korean sanctions violations. The lenders’ China-listed shares slumped as much as 8.5% on Tuesday, led by China Merchants Bank Co., which dropped the most since 2015
  • Boris Johnson, the favorite to succeed Theresa May as prime minister, said he believed the British Parliament would now support a no-deal Brexit, even as senior figures in his Conservative Party warned they had the numbers to stop him if he tried to push one through
  • Fed Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan sounded a note of caution about cutting rates
  • Oil slipped after rallying almost 8% in three days as investors weighed mixed signals from the White House on Iran and signs an extension of the OPEC+ production cuts may not be a fait accompli

Asian equity markets followed suit to the lacklustre performance among global peers as geopolitical concerns remained in the limelight after the US announced fresh sanctions on Iran. ASX 200 (-0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) were subdued although losses in Australia were stemmed by strength in the miners amid continued gains across the metals complex, while Tokyo sentiment was clouded by a stronger currency. Hang Seng (-1.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) underperformed overnight after the PBoC continued to refrain from liquidity operations and due to ongoing trade uncertainty heading into the G20, while banks were among the worst hit in a continued fallout from the Baoshang Bank failure and Citic Securities also suggested domestic liquidity conditions could be volatile next month if PBoC citing increased corporate cash demand for tax payments. Finally, 10yr JGBs were slightly higher as they benefitted from the cautious sentiment and following similar gains in T-notes but with upside limited after a mixed 20yr JGB auction in which the b/c substantially retreated from the prior month’s record high.

Top Asian News

  • China Banks Drop After Report on Alleged North Korea Violations
  • It May Just Be a Matter of Time Until Pig Plague Hits Thailand
  • Nomura CEO Sheds Shareholder Votes En Route to Reappointment
  • China’s Increasing Wealth Is Changing the Way People Die

A relatively subdued start for European stocks [Eurostoxx 50 -0.3%] following on from a lacklustre performance in Asia amid geopolitical tensions, month/quarter/HY rebalancing and caution ahead of the G20 summit. Major bourses are mostly lower with no clear standouts. Sectors are largely mixed albeit some strength is seen in material names as copper rebounds and gold extends on 6yr highs. Thus, Anglo American (+0.6%), Rio Tinto (+1.0%), Fresnillo (+0.6%) shares are all supported. Looking at individual movers, Capgemini (+7.0%) shares spiked higher at the open after the Co. agreed to purchase Altran Technologies (+21.3%) in an attempt to tap into the engineering outsourcing services market. Meanwhile. KPN (-2.2%) shares declined following the announcement of its CEO’s departure. Finally, broker-driven movers include CRH Hansen (-2.1%), Telenor (-1.3%), and Iliad (-5.1%). AbbVie (ABBV) is looking to buy Allergan (AGN) for in excess of USD 60bln in a cash and stock deal, at USD 188 per share, according to WSJ.

Top European News

  • Merkel’s Furious Allies Vow to Stop Macron’s EU Power Grab
  • KPN CEO Ibarra Leaving Dutch Firm to Run Comcast’s Sky Italia
  • Danone Is Said to Plan Sale of China Water Brand Danone Yili
  • Danske Loses Its Most Experienced Executive in New Scandal

In FX, NZD/JPY/GBP are the standout majors and outperformers, albeit with the aid of ongoing Usd weakness as the DXY struggles to keep tabs on the 96.000 level. The Kiwi has received a timely boost just ahead of Wednesday’s RBNZ policy meet in the form of NZ trade revealing moderately better than expected m/m and y/y balances, with Nzd/Usd extending gains above 0.6600 to just over 0.6650 at one stage, while the AUD/Nzd cross has retreated through 1.0500 as the Aussie continues to meet resistance/offers recent highs and the psychological 0.7000 mark. Meanwhile, the Yen rallied through 107.00 on heightened risk-aversion sparked by US sanctions against Iran and Tehran’s response that the move means no return to lines of diplomatic communication before losing some steam and retreating back below the big figure towards decent option expiries at 107.25 (1 bn). Elsewhere, the Pound finally breached a key Fib at 1.2768 and Cable advanced to 1.2780+ after stops around 1.2770 were tripped, while Eur/Gbp pulled back from just above 0.8950 to sub-0.8920 as the single currency stalled across the board rather than anything more fundamentally supportive for Sterling.

  • EUR/CHF – As noted above, the Euro has faded after making more headway against the Dollar and forging above 1.1400, with several weekly chart levels spanning 1.1416-85 capping the rally on top of a Fib at 1.1460. However, the Franc has reversed even further from best levels circa 1.1060 and 0.9695 vs the Buck amidst vague market talk or speculation about official intervention to curb demand for one of the other traditional safe-havens. On that note, GOLD has seen more upside having breached Usd1400/oz and spiked to fresh multi-year highs only a few cents shy of Usd1440.
  • NOK/SEK – Marked divergence between the Scandi Crowns as Eur/Nok remains in bear retracement mode after last week’s hawkish Norges Bank hike and underpinned within 9.6910-6645 parameters, but Eur/Sek continues to retreat on a more technical and pre-emptive basis through 10.5500, as the Riksbank maintains its tightening bias in wake of firmer Swedish inflation data and not really fazed by a slowdown in PPI that is largely oil-related. Back to the charts, 200 DMA support may cushion the Nok from further losses as the line comes in at 9.949.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures are choppy with the both benchmarks relatively flat below USD 58/bbl and USD 65/bbl as eyes are kept on the rising tensions between US and Iran and G20 developments ahead of next week’s OPEC+ meeting. Participants expect the cartel and allies to roll over the output cut pact into the second half of the year after nearly all members (ex-Russia) stated that it is in the best interest of the market. Immediate headline risks aside, tonight will see the release of the weekly API crude stocks as the street looks for a headline inventory decline of 2.9mln barrels, albeit price action may be short-lived given the aforementioned reasons. Elsewhere, gold prices remain buoyed after hitting levels last seen in August 2013 (intraday high USD 1439/oz). The yellow metal has been supported by the safe haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, and a weaker Dollar post-FOMC. Thus, Gold traders today will be eyeing any further Iran/US escalation and Fed Chair Powell’s speech scheduled for 1800BST/1300EDT which will touch on monetary policy and the economic outlook. Powell aside, other 2019 Fed voters on the docket include Fed’s Williams, and Bullard (dissenter). Turning to base metals, copper prices rebounded and reclaimed USD 2.7/lb to the upside as the red metal as extended strikes at Coldeco’s Chuquicamata copper mine roused supply concerns. Finally, China Rebar prices surged to the nearly 8yr highs as steel mill continue to curb production amid pollution warnings.

US Event Calendar

  • 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
  • 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA, est. 0.1%, prior 0.09%; YoY NSA, est. 2.5%, prior 2.68%
  • 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 2, prior 5
  • 10am: New Home Sales, est. 683,750, prior 673,000; New Home Sales MoM, est. 1.6%, prior -6.9%
  • 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 131, prior 134.1

Central Bank Speakers

  • 8:45am: Fed’s Williams Makes Opening Remarks at Finance Forum
  • 12pm: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on Housing
  • 1pm: Powell Discusses Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
  • 3:30pm: Fed’s Barkin Speaks in Ottawa
  • 6:30pm: Fed’s Bullard Gives Welcoming Remarks at Lecture in St. Louis

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The only thing I’ll start with this morning is that if you’re out for a peaceful life, don’t give twin boys aged 1.75 years old a recorder each. The noise was deafening when I got home last night. It reminded me of the Vuvuzelas in the World Cup in South Africa in 2010. It was certainly as monotone.

After the deafening roar of markets last week, yesterday saw a little peace and quiet return. A lull in news-flow, broad fatigue and a general wait and see mode ahead of the G-20 all appeared to play a role with the end result for equities being a -0.17% decline for the S&P 500 in a range of just 0.37%, the fourth narrowest of the year. The DOW and NASDAQ ended +0.03% and -0.32%, respectively. The DOW’s range was 0.33%, second smallest of the year, while in Europe the STOXX 600 (-0.25%) ended a smidgen lower with a marginally wider trading range of 0.65%.

Asian markets are a little more exciting though and are generally heading lower with Chinese bourses leading the declines. The Shanghai Comp (-1.82%), CSI (-2.10%), and the Shenzhen Comp (-2.04%) are all down c. 2%. China Merchants Bank stock is weighing on the Chinese and Hong Kong market (-6.80%) on a Washington Post report that the bank is subject to a US investigation into sanctions violations with regards to North Korea. The Hang Seng (-1.31%), Nikkei (-0.52%) and Kospi (-0.19%) are also trading lower. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.19%. In other news, Bloomberg reported overnight that Trump has recently mused to confidants about withdrawing from a longstanding defense treaty with Japan that he thinks treats the US unfairly.

On the upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi at the G20, various media reports are saying that it will take place on Saturday, the final day of the two-day summit which is also the day when President Trump is scheduled to fly to Seoul from Osaka. To lay the ground work ahead of the meeting, the US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He yesterday with a statement from China’s commerce ministry suggesting that they had agreed to continue communicating. Meanwhile, Bloomberg has reported overnight (citing US officials), that in a briefing call yesterday Trump was focused above all else on securing real structural reforms in China to address US complaints about intellectual property theft and the widespread use of industrial subsidies among other things. So the hurdle rate for any breakthrough at the weekend talks remain high but the G-20 was always going to be about a continuation of talks rather than the final destination.

Returning to markets and the bond rally has recommenced over the last 24 hours as 10yr Treasuries ended -4.0bps lower yesterday and are another -2bps this morning at 1.995% (the lowest since November 2016). US 2yrs were –3.5bps (-1.4bps this morning), leaving 2s10s a touch flatter at 27.6bps this morning, still around 3bps off the year’s highs though. Meanwhile, 10yr Bunds were -2.2bps lower at -0.307%. Staying with rates, there are still 36bps of cuts priced in for the Fed at the July meeting and 101bps over the next 12 months, with the next test for markets likely to be today’s speech by Fed Chair Powell at 6pm BST at the Council for Foreign Relations in New York. The discussion is on the economic outlook and monetary policy so expect markets to be on the lookout for any divergences or extra nuances to last week’s narrative. We should note that it’s a fairly busy day for Fedspeak with no fewer than five separate speakers due at various stages during the day.

Yesterday, Dallas Fed President Kaplan said he’s “concerned that adding monetary stimulus, at this juncture ” could fuel imbalances “which may ultimately prove to be difficult and painful to manage.” Our economists believe he is one of the FOMC members who favours 50bps of cuts this year, so his comments provide a new benchmark for how the doves are thinking. It could be that Kaplan wants to push back against the current market pricing, or that he wants to buy time to analyse more information before deciding “whether it is appropriate to make changes to the stance of U.S. monetary policy.” He went on to say that job growth of 60-120,000 would be sufficient for a “strong” jobs markets, suggesting that last months’ weak figure was not necessarily a warning sign for him.

Back to markets where WTI oil rose ‘just’ +0.68% yesterday (down -0.78% this morning). That follows a near $5/bbl price rise last week. The broader US-Iran tensions continue to remain elevated though, especially after President Trump announced new sanctions yesterday, directly targeting Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and eight senior military officials. While the actual measures are only marginal additions to the current sanctions regime, which already covers 80% of Iran’s economy according to the US State Department, they are symbolically significant and mark another degree of escalation. Staying with oil, OPEC and its partners are scheduled to meet on July 1-2, though there is probably less pressure for action after the recent uptick in prices.

As well as dealing with Iran, Mr Trump also renewed his criticism of the Fed over twitter again yesterday, suggesting that the Dow could be “thousands of points higher” and GDP growth “in the 4’s or 5’s” if the Fed had “gotten it right” while in an interview with the Hill, Trump reiterated that he has the power to fire the Fed Chair but has no plan to do so and added that Powell is “incorrect” that he’s entitled to serve a four-year term that expires in 2022. In other markets Gold (+1.41%) showed no signs of giving up any of its recent gains while EM FX finished marginally stronger at +0.13%. Credit spreads, like equities, were also a touch weaker, with HY cash spreads +1bps and +3bps in Europe and the US, respectively.

There were no real surprises in the June German IFO yesterday with the headline reading dropping 0.5pts as expected to 97.4 and the lowest since 2014. The current assessment component actually nudged up 0.1pts to 100.8, however there wasn’t quite as good news for the expectations component which slid 1pt to 94.2 and more than expected.

Across the pond, the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey for June was the latest regional survey to show weakness at a headline level, with the print dropping 6.8pts to -12.1 (vs. -2.0 expected) and to the lowest since June 2016. This follows the surprise weakness in both the Empire and Philly Fed surveys last week, with the former dropping by the most on record into negative territory. These readings may serve to heighten concern and focus ahead of next Monday’s ISM manufacturing report.

To the day ahead now, where this morning we’ll get June confidence indicators in France followed by the June CBI survey data in the UK. The data due out in the US this afternoon includes April FHFA and S&P CoreLogic house price data, the June Richmond Fed survey, May new home sales and the June consumer confidence report. As mentioned earlier it’s a busy day for Fedspeak headlined by Powell, with Williams, Bostic, Barkin and Bullard also due to speak. The ECB’s Guindos and Coeure are also scheduled to make comments.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.07 POINTS OR 0.50%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 327.02 POINTS OR 1.15%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 92.18 POINTS OR 0.25%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .16%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8804 /Oil UP TO 57.71 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.46 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8804 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8796 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3c China/Chinese affairs

China is witnessing huge banking stress as Shibor tumbles to its lowest level in a decade:  below 1% at .98%

(courtesy zerohedge)

As China’s Banking System Freezes, SHIBOR Tumbles To Lowest In A Decade

One trading day after we reported that China was “Hit By “Significant Banking Stress” as SHIBOR tumbled to recession levels, and less than a week after we warned that China’s interbank market was freezing up in the aftermath of the Baoshang Bank collapse and subsequent seizure, which led to a surge in interbank repo rates and a spike in Negotiable Certificates of Deposit (NCD) rates…

China’s banking stress has taken a turn for the worse, and on Monday, China’s overnight repurchase rate dropped to its lowest level in nearly 10 years, after the central bank’s repeated liquidity injections to ease credit concerns in small-to-medium banks: The rate fell as much as 11 basis points to 0.9861% on Monday, before being fixed at exactly 1.000%.

Seeking to ease funding strains after the Baoshang collapse and to unfreeze the financial channels in the banking sector, the PBOC has been injecting cash into the financial system to soothe credit risk concerns in smaller banks following the seizure of Baoshang Bank, which sent shockwaves through China’s markets.

Also helping drive the rate lower is China’s move to allow brokerages to issue more debt, said ANZ Bank’s Zhaopeng Xing, quoted by Bloomberg. As a result, at least five brokerages had their short-term debt quotas increased by the People’s Bank of China in recent days, according to filings.

The improved access to shorter-term debt will cut costs for brokerages compared with alternative funding sources such as bond issuance. The flipside, of course, is that the lower overnight funding rates drop, the greater the investor skepticism that China’s massive, $40 trillion financial system is doing ok, especially since the last time overnight funding rates were this low, the near-collapse of the global financial system was still fresh and the S&P was trading in the triple-digits.

Commenting on the ongoing collapse in SHIBOR, Commodore Research wrote overnight that “low SHIBOR lending rates are supposed to be supportive and accommodative in nature — but rates are now at the lowest level seen this decade and  are very likely an indication that China is facing significant banking stress at the moment. It is extremely rare for the overnight SHIBOR lending rate to be set as low as 1.00%. This previously had not all been seen this decade, and the last time it occurred was during the financial crisis in 2008 – 2009.”

Meanwhile, as the world’s biggest financial time bomb ticks ever louder, traders and analysts are blissfully oblivious, focusing instead on central banks admitting that the recession is imminent and trying to spin how a world war with Iran would be bullish for stocks.

 

END

 

A super commentary as Michael Every outlines the 4 major problem areas facing the globe

  1. The upcoming Trump -Xi meeting//
  2. North Korea vs the USA on thwarting North Korea’s nuclear ambitions
  3. Turkey vs USA (is Turkey facing east?)
  4. geopolitical risks vs central banking risk

plus others deadly combos

(courtesy Michael Every/Rabobank)

Rabobank: Trump-Xi Meeting Is Not About Tariffs Or Trade, But Who Wins The Great Chess Game And How

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Chess, Mate

I presume most readers have played chess at one time or another, or at least watched someone doing so. Most games start with a little positioning and then a trade of pieces as both Black and White set themselves up to win the game. Occasionally, however, a game develops with no pieces being taken. I don’t mean so-called ‘Fool’s Mate’ or ‘Scholar’s Mate’, both games where one side can beat the other without any pieces being lost on either side. Instead I mean a game where both sides play primarily defensively. In that scenario almost all pieces are brought into play, yet neither side is prepared to start the avalanche of taking and counter-taking that will inevitably follow when just one small pawn is exchanged. That tense backdrop, where both nothing is happening and yet everything is very close to happening, is clearly where we stand globally today.

On one level the two players are the US and China, and everyone else, willing or unwilling, are their pieces as we head towards this week’s crucial G20 sit-down on 28-29 between Trump and Xi. As we have kept repeating here, this pow-wow is not about tariffs. It’s not even about trade. It’s about who is going to win this Great Game, and how. The economy is just one, crucial, part of a far larger struggle.

That’s certainly how China now sees it now, if it ever didn’t, and how US hawks also envision it. As such, as in chess, once a piece is moved–tariffs in this case–one can’t just move it backwards without throwing away significant tactical advantage. China is demanding just that as a precondition for any deal, and the US is most unlikely to respond. As such, perhaps the very best markets can hope for is more patient delay and position building at the G-20 that at least sees the US and China refrain from any further escalation. Yet even that is not guaranteed as the US has just added another five more Chinese firms to its tech-export blacklist on national security concerns, this time aimed at stifling China’s attempts to develop supercomputers.

Meanwhile, lots of other global pieces are coming into play all at once. We were 30 minutes at most away from US military strikes on Iran last week, an outcome that would have risked a rapid escalation into very dangerous scenarios. Fortunately, US President Trump decided that killing 150 Iranians was disproportionate to one drone’s downing, and has underlined again that he is prepared to be a great friend to the Iranians if they will only abandon their target of holding nuclear weapons. However, Trump is going to escalate his economic strategy with a further “significant” increase in US sanctions on Tehran today, with the threat of military “obliteration” still in the background. In turn, expect Iran to keep trying to show the US that it can make life difficult on other parts of the board in response. It is, as I said, a very tense situation with no clear resolution obvious.

Likewise, in North Korea we have seen China’s Xi meet Kim with all fanfare, and the outcome is still unclear – though Korea observers suggest that the two may be moving to stand united against the US rather than Beijing helping Washington DC on the nuclear issue. Of course, Trump has also sent a personal letter to Kim, indicating that he very much wants to turn this pawn into a queen.

In Turkey we have the S-400 missile and F-35 stand-off, which could yet see the US impose crippling sanctions. Moreover, CHP opposition candidate Imamoglu convincingly won the re-run of the mayoral elections in Istanbul held on Sunday, obtaining 54% of votes. The ruling AKP party’s Yildirim–a former PM and a close ally of President Erdogan–received 45%. The margin of Imamoglu’s victory is substantially higher compared to the March 31 vote. The key question is whether the Erdogan administration moves on and focuses on urgently required economic reforms (and foreign policy issues) or intensifies efforts to prevent Imamoglu from using his mayorship to build a much stronger political momentum to challenge Erdogan and the AKP for power in the 2023 parliamentary and presidential elections. We have a low conviction that bold reforms will be implemented after Treasury and Finance Minister Albayrak did not provide concrete details of his economic programme in April. The S-400 and F-35 issues are even more pressing.

Of course, Russia, the EU (and Italy), Brexit, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong, etc., are also all still ‘in play’ too – and a development on their part of the board can flow through to the overall game in a crucial manner.

When one puts all of this together then there is also another way of looking at this chess game. One of the players is geopolitical risk, and the other is central banking. Every time the former makes a dangerous move, the latter tries to counter. So far that has meant that the pre-GFC trading strategy of “Just buy everything!” has continued to offer rich rewards. However, we are arguably approaching a point where geopolitics is likely to overwhelm central bankers. How does one match Gulf War 3 with a 50bp cut, for example?

A third way to think of the chess match is over the future of the USD: is it going to remain King Dollar or find itself in check-mate?

end

Oh OH  this is going to hurt:  Trump threatens to cut off 3 major Chinese  banks from SWIFT..that would be a killer blow

(courtesy zero hedge)

“It Would Be An Earthquake” – Three Chinese Banks Tumble After US Threatens To Cut Them Off From SWIFT 

In news that initially did not receive much prominence, on Monday a US judge found three large Chinese banks — reportedly the state-owned Bank of Communications, China Merchants Bank, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank — in contempt for refusing to comply with subpoenas in an investigation into North Korean sanctions violations. Thiscould open the door for them to be cut off from the US financial system, i.e. SWIFT. 

Should it occur, to say that China will not take that well is as large an understatement as one can conceive of.It would be an earthquake”, commented Rabobank’s Michael Every.

The stunning development follows a May district judge order that three Chinese banks comply with U.S. investigators’ demands that they hand over records connected to the alleged movement of tens of millions of dollars in violation of international sanctions on North Korea.The publicly released court document did not name the banks, the Hong Kong company, or the North Korean entity at that time.

As the WaPo adds, according to a 2017 ruling by the US DOJ, the banks were accused of working with a Hong Kong company, which allegedly laundered more than $100 million for North Korea’s sanctioned Foreign Trade Bank. The newspaper said the bank at risk of losing access to U.S. dollars appeared to be Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, whose ownership structure, limited U.S. presence and alleged conduct with other banks matched with the details disclosed in the court rulings.

Shanghai Pudong Development Bank doesn’t have U.S. branch operations but maintains accounts in that country to handle dollar transactions, the report said, adding the subpoena battle will go before a federal appeals court in Washington on July 12.

“The ruling means that Attorney General William P. Barr or Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin can terminate the bank’s U.S. account and ability to process U.S. dollar transactions,” the Post said.

Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, asked about the report that it could lose access to the U.S. financial system, said in a statement that it will strictly abide by the relevant laws and regulations. Meanwhile, China Merchants Bank told Reuters on Tuesday it complies with related United Nations resolutions and Chinese laws, and is not involved in any investigations related to possible violations of sanctions.

Bank of Communications, China’s fifth-largest bank, said the case involved U.S. courts seeking to obtain customer information that is stored outside the United States from Chinese commercial banks.

Needless to say, the stock prices of all three Chinese banks – which are listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange – tumbles with shares of China Merchants Bank closed down 4.82%, after being off 8.5% earlier in the day, while Shanghai Pudong Development Bank declined 3.08% and Bank of Communications dropped 3.02%.

Some more details from the original report:  The subpoenas targeting the three banks were issued in December 2017 as part of a U.S. investigation into violations of sanctions targeting North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, including money laundering and contravention of the U.S. Bank Secrecy Act.

Geng Shuang, a spokesman at the Chinese foreign ministry, said “We ask our companies and overseas branches to abide by local regulations and laws and operate within the framework of law, and cooperate with the local judicial and law enforcement bodies. At the same time, we are against U.S. so-called long arm jurisdiction on Chinese companies. We hope the U.S. will step up bilateral cooperation on finance with other countries,” Geng said at a daily briefing in Beijing.

Currently, there’s no conclusive information that Chinese banks will be sanctioned, PBOC publication Financial News reported on Tuesday, citing an unnamed industry veteran. Chinese banks will not lose their U.S. dollar clearance qualifications, and the market should not over-interpret this, the same person was quoted as saying.

The news that the US may use SWIFT as leverage against China comes just days before the G-20 summit in Japan this weekend, which will be the first meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping since trade talks between the two countries broke off in May. They will discuss issues such as tariffs, subsidies, technology, intellectual property and cyber security, among others.

The U.S. government has put some Chinese firms including telecoms equipment maker Huawei Technologies Co Ltd on a trade blacklist while China is also drawing up its own “Unreliable Entities List” of foreign firms, groups and individuals.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

FRANCE

Investors are panicking as large French bank Natixis imploding hedge fund, marks down the assets from true fair value in order to stop redemptions

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

As Its Investors Panic, Natixis’ Imploding Fund Unveils Clever Trick To Halt Redemptions

While it may not yet be the sequel to the GAM Absolute Return Fund or the more recent Neil Woodford investment fiasco, which saw the “investing legend” gate his clients from redeeming money following a serious of terrible investments, the grotesquely named Natixis H20 funds, which we profiled last week as the latest example of how quickly investor panic can escalate once it is discovered how illiquid most fixed income fund investments truly are.

To be sure, the H20 Asset Management fund – yes, the fact that it is named for liquidity when the reason it is about to collapse it that there is none is not lost on us, or anyone else for that matter – refuses to go away quietly and in recent days its parent, troubled French bank Natixis went into crisis-fighting mode to stem a wave of outflows by selling €300 million euros of its unrated private bonds. It then unveiled an ingenious way to halt redemptions without actually imposing gates: according to Bloomberg, it marked down the balance of its holdings “to remove incentives for investors to pull even more.”

You see, when times are great and when funds are happy to demonstrate their performance and portfolios to the world, they tend to “accidentally” mismark their portfolios rather high to appear even more skilled at generating alpha (than they are). However, should the scene flip 180 and the fund finds itself in mortal danger of a redemption avalanche, the first thing the fund’s creative managers do is suddenly reprice all the holdings in the fund sharply lower, forcing those investors who demand their money back to take huge losses.

Truly odd how mark-to-“market” works, when the market for illiquid securities in question does not exist. Perhaps one day regulators will actually look into that.

 

For now however, we will observe just how successful the anti-H20 fund is in curbing investor enthusiasm to recoup their money, even if they know full well that the longer they wait, the less they will recover.

As Bloomberg explains, the move cut the aggregate market value of the bonds, which were issued by companies linked to German scandal-ridden financier Lars Windhorst, to less than 2% of assets under management, H2O said in a statement on Monday.

So in an attempt to crush investor enthusiasm to pull money, H2O’s funds, whose assets doubled since 2017 to $37.6 billion before last week’s tumult, will be priced at a discount between 3% and 7% – with the thinking here being that anyone who liquidates will be forced to take a major hit – and the company will remove all entry fees across its funds, it said.

Will this plan work? That’s the question as fund managers hope to reverse outflows from a group of H2O funds that saw their assets drop by 1.1 billion euros on Thursday as analysts questioned their holdings.

By moving swiftly and having fund investors take valuation losses now, H2O is seeking to avoid the fate of famed U.K. stock picker Neil Woodford and Swiss asset manager GAM Holding AG, which both froze funds over the past year amid concerns about whether they’d circumvented investment restrictions. Of course, by admitting just how overvalued its “assets” were until now, it risks accelerating the redemptions as investors in other funds seek to recovery as close to par as possible before they too are steamrolled.

As reported last week, Morningstar questioned the “liquidity and appropriateness” of some of H2O’s corporate-bond holdings as well as potential conflicts of interest, and suspended its recommendation on Wednesday, while research firm Autonomous said the notes are akin to loans, which aren’t permitted.

Meanwhile, in an attempt to halt its tumbling stop price, Natixis brought forward a periodic audit of the unit to start June 21. Its shares rose slightly on Monday, halting the two-day slump that followed Morningstar’s move. The bank lost almost 12% last week, falling to the lowest level in nearly three years on Friday.

Additionally, H2O sold about 300 million euros worth of private placements on Friday, according to a letter seen by Bloomberg. The money manager also said it planned to appoint an independent auditor to reassure investors about its investment process and valuation policy regarding non-rated private bonds in their funds, according to the note.

So how did the fund justify the valuation cuts of its illiquid holdings?

According to Bloomberg, the fund said it depreciates all portfolio assets in line with market prices and that it started marking down net asset values as of Wednesday. This is why “our funds have overall posted daily negative performances, despite the good showing of our main investment strategies,” H2O said in the letter. In other words: anything you want to sell will be priced sharply lower.

Separately, a fund spokesman said the aggregated value of the non-corporate bond holdings across H2O’s range of funds was 500 million euros as of Monday, although these numbers tend to magically increase over time.

“The long-term performance drivers of H2O funds, which have been proven over numerous years to the benefit of our clients, remain unaffected as they are not related to this type of investment,” Natixis said in statement on Monday.

“The liquidity of the securities is ensured and will allow it to face potential additional withdrawals” it concluded, although by that point nobody believed it because as has emerged in recent years, starting with Third Avenue and the UK property funds following the Brexit vote, and continuing through GAM, Woodford and now, Natixis, all it takes is for one seller to emerge before everyone else realizes just how illiquid the investments truly are, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of selling which in turn results in more selling, until the fund itself is forced to liquidate at massive losses.

That this is happening in broad daylight and before the eyes of regulators is stunning because this is also a blueprint of how the next crash will play out, not only for bonds but stocks as well, once the overall market goes bidless.

For now, the only questions that have emerged is whether Natixis and other fund managers, most notably Woodford have faced questions over whether they’ve circumvented liquidity restrictions by re-packaging assets. The question now, as we asked last week, is whether the illiquid investments that have caused trouble for H20, GAM and Woodford represent a wider trend in the fund-management industry. Jacob Schmidt, CEO of Schmidt Research Partners, a global investment firm, argues that they are, drumroll, “isolated incidents.” And yes, we are not the only ones to find that an investment firm would argue that all investment firms aren’t liquidity Ponzi schemes.

end

We now have a bona fida bank run on Natixis

(courtesy zerohedge)

As H20 “Bank Run” Accelerates, Its Assets Plummet By $3 BIllion

Yesterday when describing the latest developments surrounding the Natixis-owned, ill-named H20 Asset Management, which has found itself in a toxic spiral of holding illiquid assets yet facing growing redemptions following Morningstar’s questioning of the “liquidity and appropriateness” of some of H2O’s corporate-bond holdings as well as potential conflicts of interest, and suspended its recommendation on Wednesday, we reported that the fund unveiled an “ingenious”
way to halt redemptions without actually imposing gates: it marked down the balance of its holdings “to remove incentives for investors to pull even more.”

We also asked, rhetorically, whether this plan work?

That’s the question as fund managers hope to reverse outflows from a group of H2O funds that saw their assets drop by 1.1 billion euros on Thursday as analysts questioned their holdings.

Less than 24 hours later we have the question: it did not, because on Monday H20 saw its assets decline even more as a group of its largest funds seeing their biggest ever single-day drop. In the fourth consecutive day of accelerating redemptions, the money manager paradoxically named for liquidity – of which it has none as it scrambles to offload its most illiquid holdings – saw six of H20’s biggest funds fall by 2.6 billion euros, or about $3 billion, on Monday.

Yet while to most funds the redemption of nearly €6 billion in funds would prove terminal, perhaps H2O will manage to turn the tide – the fund said it received “material” inflows after a slowdown in net outflows since Monday:

H2O AM hereby confirms that the net outflows have slowed significantly since Monday June 24th. In addition, H2O funds received some material inflows on Tuesday June 25th.

On the other hand, it won’t be the first time that a fund facing liquidation says pretty much anything to restore confidence.

As Bloomberg notes, the fall in assets comes one day after as H2O said it had sold 300 million euros of the Windhorst-linked holdings on Monday. The sale and a marking down of the non-rated corporate bond holdings across H2O’s range reduced the value of the non-rated corporate bonds to 500 million euros, a spokeswoman said on Monday.

Morningstar raised concerns about the “liquidity and appropriateness” of some corporate-bond holdings as well as potential conflicts of interest last week. The funds, which allow clients to make daily withdrawals, hold rarely traded bonds issued by companies linked to controversial German financier Lars Windhorst investment vehicle Tennor.

So where do we stand: the good news for the fund that may soon join the unhappy procession of investors such as Third Avenue, UK property funds following Brexit, GAM and Woodford which all threw in the towel after their bond holdings were exposed as especially illiquid, is that it had a lot of assets to start the year: H2O’s assets were €32.5 billion at the start of the year. The bad news is that if management is non-GAAPing the truth and redemptions continue, the fund probably has a bout a week of life left if redemptions continue to grow at this rate. And until there is some confirmation that the fund has managed to turn the tide of outflows, there is no reason to expect that H20 will have finally found the oh so critical market substance that it was named for.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAN/USA

The truth behind the drone attack and Trumps next move trying to save face

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

Iran – Message Sent, Message Delivered

 

Authored by Tom Luongo,

It is clear that Iran is sending the U.S. a stern message. And that message is we can hurt you asymmetrically as much as you hurt us.

Over the weekend Iran’s leadership made it clear there was no mistake in their actions last week. They purposefully shot down one of our most advanced drones to send the U.S. a very clear warning.

 

‘Our capabilities far exceed your tolerance for withstanding them.’

The more we learn about this incident the more the initial story concocted by the U.S. looks specious. Drone in international airspace? Most likely not.

Trump said someone made a mistake? No, completely deliberate.

The drone that was shot down, an RQ-4A Global Hawk, was the cream of our surveillance drones. It was flying in tandem with an anti-submarine Poseidon P-8 spy plane, which, according to Elijah Magnier was carrying far more than its normal crew of 9.

Try 38.

That was not reported at first either in the initial flush for war. Iran then revealed just how loose with the truth the U.S. turned out to be and that forced a complete rethink of the situation.

There was no mistake involved. No IRGC officer panicked. Iran deliberately targeted the Global Hawk after it failed to respond to hails to leave Iranian airspace and turned off its GPS, lights and digital systems.

It was acting as a hostile and Iran treated it as such. After sparing the Poseidon P-8 and its crew and passengers Iran shot down the drone.

That said Iran made this decision only after getting confirmation that the U.S. ruled out going to war with them. So, they stood down from shooting the Poseidon, which was the initial target, according to Magnier’s sources within the IRGC.

“Iran was about to hit and destroy the US Navy P-8 Poseidon spy and anti-submarine Boeing that was flying in the area when we received confirmation that the US had decided not to go to war and not to bomb any control and command or missile batteries positions, cleared or non-cleared, along the Straits of Hormuz. Had Trump decided otherwise, we had orders to hit several US and US allies’ targets and the Middle East would have been the theatre of a very destructive war with huge losses on all sides”, said an Iranian IRGC General.

But even after that confirmation came down Iran still chose to shoot down the drone. This was a clear message that actions speak far louder than words.

The Iranian leadership decided it was time to test Donald Trump’s mettle. They didn’t have to shoot down the drone. But if they didn’t it would give the U.S. carte blanche to violate Iranian airspace without fear of reprisal solely because back-channel communications say, for now, the U.S. has stayed its hand.

This is likely why Trump was so angry at the presser the other day with Justin Trudeau when asked about the incident. He made what he thought was a gesture of good faith to Iran and, to him, Iran spit in his eye.

And this is where Trump’s fundamental character flaws come to the fore. He’s simply not able to see things outside of his own personal costs. A classic narcissist. And this is why he wanted desperately to bomb Iranian targets in response.

Because of his fundamental flaws he had to be talked off the ledge by, reportedly, Tucker Carlson. Good on Tucker if this is even remotely true, but should it have come to this?

If this is what passes for the decision-making flowchart of the Trump administration then we should all be really worried.

In the end, this was just a drone and one that was 1) somewhere it shouldn’t have been and 2) acting in a very suspicious manner, if the Iranian side of the story is to be believed.

And given the potential costs for Iran if they were wrong, the onus of proof, in my mind, lies with the U.S., which it will not provide. That’s a clear signal that we don’t have the evidence to back up our story.,

Then Trump floats this nonsense about killing 150 Iranians wouldn’t be “proportionate.” So people who starve or are denied a better life because of sanctions and threats aren’t casualties, Don? Only those killed by bombs?

Again, this is the position of a sick and dangerous narcissist. And don’t think I would only say this about Trump. No, this goes for all of this country’s leaders going back decades.

Sanctions are acts of war. Embargoes are immoral. Just because you can’t tie deaths to it directly doesn’t mean the effects of them aren’t real.

So Trump sends out two signals today.

First, he tells everyone in the region they are on their own to protect their regional assets, i.e. oil tankers. This is a clear message that he’s done escalating this stand-off with Iran and is looking for ways out of this.

Because if he were truly serious about taking all of Iran’s oil off the market he would be pledging 5th fleet escorts today rather than complaining that China should pay for securing their oil shipments.

Trump started this fight now he doesn’t know how to get out of it. I expect Putin and Xi will sit him down at the G-20 and work through his options. These men always allow Trump to save face. Iran can’t. The only way they win here is to beat him thoroughly such that everyone knows it.

But as I said over the weekend, Iran isn’t interested in allowing Trump to save face here without him giving up something yuge. He started this fight and it’s up to him to put something tangible on the table. And saying, “I won’t bomb you back to the stone age over a drone” is not an olive branch.

The second thing he did today, confirming his impotence, was putting ineffectual and idiotic sanctions on Iran’s political leadership.

I’m sure they are shaking in their turbins now!

The war-gaming after this incident was clear, however. Any retaliation by the U.S. would be catastrophic for the world economy. It would unleash a regional conflict on multiple fronts which would not be any kind of controlled theater. I’m sure even the biggest hawks on the Joint Chiefs of Staff would have been uncomfortable with fighting those battles.

In the end, it looks like Iran’s message was sent and delivered. Trump found out that no amount of external direct pressure will get the Iranian government to fold.

That for all the might of the U.S. military and financial empire, its weaknesses are deep enough that even a relatively weak military and economy like Iran’s can stop it all dead cold because of basic things like geography, logistics and simple human resolve.

*  *  *

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end
Iran
Iran furious with USA sanctions as the vow diplomacy has been closed forever
(courtesy zeorhedge)

Iran Vows That Path To Diplomacy Closed “Forever” After Latest US Sanctions

Despite the fact that Washington had already sanctioned more than 80% of Iran’s economy, so the notion that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior Iranian officials still have any exposure to the Western financial system is a little ridiculous, President Trump delivered on his promise to impose new sanctions on the Supreme leader and other senior Iranian officials on Monday, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin adding that more sanctions against Foreign Minister Javad Zarif would be handed down later this week.

Iran

Though we imagine the Iranians vastly prefer the sanctions to a missile strike on Iranian soil (a strike that Trump famously speculated could involve 150 casualties), and although the threat of all-out warfare in the Middle East has been averted (at least for now), Tehran is telegraphing a message of defiance, saying the path to a diplomatic solution is now permanently closed.

Here’s more from Bloomberg:

President Donald Trump on Monday unveiled sanctions on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and eight senior military commanders that deny him and his office access to financial resources. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said financial restrictions would also be introduced against Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif later this week.

“The futile sanctions against the Iranian leader and the country’s chief diplomat mean the permanent closure of the diplomatic path with the government of the United States,” the Foreign Ministry’s spokesman, Abbas Mousavi, was quoted as saying by semi-official Iranian Students News Agency. “The Trump government is in the process of destroying all the established international mechanisms for maintaining global peace and security.”

Iran’s declaration soured the market’s mood for risk assets, and sparked a bid of safety buying. The Japanese yen rallied while Treasury yields ticked lower. S&P 500 futures declined and most Asian stock markets slipped. Asian emerging-market currencies were mixed, with several trading lower.

Trump refrained from launching a military strike against Iran last week (what would have been retaliation for Iran shooting down an American drone), and has instead chosen to press Iran to come to the table, saying during a weekend interview that he’d be willing to talk with ‘no preconditions.’ The US has accused Iran of orchestrating the bombings of several oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz oil-trade chokepoint, though Iran has repeatedly denied any involvement.

Trump has coupled his “maximum pressure” campaign of sanctions with invitations to sit down with Iranian leaders. In an interview that aired Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” the president said that he thinks Iranian leaders want to negotiate and he’s willing to talk with no preconditions except that the outcome must be Iran acquiring no nuclear weapons.

“The supreme leader of Iran is the one who ultimately is responsible for the hostile conduct of the regime,” Trump said on Monday.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani dismissed Trump’s offer to talk as “a lie.” And Iran’s representative to the UN urged the organization to help set up regional talks, adding that Iran would refuse to meet with the US one-on-one.

“It will have an effect because it will annoy the Iranians and make negotiations hard to pull off if the supreme leader is sanctioned,” said Brian O’Toole, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council who previously worked in the U.S. Treasury Department’s sanctions unit.

Khamenei, who was elected president of the newly born Republic in 1981 and later went on to become its second Supreme ruler, reportedly has possessions valued at an estimated $200 billion, according to American diplomatic personnel. Though it’s unclear how much of this is exposed to sanctions.

 

end
The war of words continue between Trump and the Supreme leader of Iran
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Slams Iran’s “Ignorant, Insulting” Statement, Warns Any Further Attacks Will Mean “Obliteration”

After Iran unceremoniously slammed the door on diplomacy, President Trump has decided to tweet his perspective on what happens next.

Trump began by going after the statement from Iranian leadership, blasting that they don’t “understand the words “nice” or “compassion,” they never have,” adding some threats: “Sadly, the thing they do understand is Strength and Power,and the USA is by far the most powerful Military Force in the world, with 1.5 Trillion Dollars invested over the last two years alone…”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Iran leadership doesn’t understand the words “nice” or “compassion,” they never have. Sadly, the thing they do understand is Strength and Power, and the USA is by far the most powerful Military Force in the world, with 1.5 Trillion Dollars invested over the last two years alone..

Then Trump turned to the Iranian people, who are suffering due to his economic war being waged by sanctions: “….The wonderful Iranian people are suffering, and for no reason at all. Their leadership spends all of its money on Terror, and little on anything else,” reminding his 61 million followers that “The U.S. has not forgotten Iran’s use of IED’s & EFP’s (bombs), which killed 2000 Americans, and wounded many more…”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….The wonderful Iranian people are suffering, and for no reason at all. Their leadership spends all of its money on Terror, and little on anything else. The U.S. has not forgotten Iran’s use of IED’s & EFP’s (bombs), which killed 2000 Americans, and wounded many more…

But he saved the best for last, unleashing a ‘sound-and-fury’-esque warning that ”

….Iran’s very ignorant and insulting statement, put out today, only shows that they do not understand reality. Any attack by Iran on anything American will be met with great and overwhelming force. In some areas, overwhelming will mean obliteration.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….Iran’s very ignorant and insulting statement, put out today, only shows that they do not understand reality. Any attack by Iran on anything American will be met with great and overwhelming force. In some areas, overwhelming will mean obliteration. No more John Kerry & Obama!

Finally, Trump took a shot at the previous administration, who he blames for creating this mess (and argues still interfere):

“No more John Kerry & Obama!”

 

end

 

Turkey/USA

Two important points here:

  1. The uSA will not sell Turkey the F 35’s
  2. Turkey will certainly buy the Russian Sam 400

then the fun  begins because Turkey houses the 2nd largest NATO forces  (after Germany) inside Incirlik,Turkey.

(courtesy zerohedge)

No F-35 For Turkey If Russia Arms Deal Goes Forward: US Envoy

The United States will stop Turkey from flying and developing the F-35 stealth jet if Ankara moves forward with their purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile system, according to Kay Bailey Hutchison, the US envoy to NATO.

“There will be a disassociation with the F-35 system, we cannot have the F-35 affected or destabilized by having this Russian system in the alliance,” Hutchison told reporters in Brussels. “Everything indicates that Russia is going to deliver the system to Turkey and that will have consequences,” she added.

“There will be a disassociation with the F-35 system, we cannot have the F-35 affected or destabilized by having this Russian system in the alliance.”

 

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, however, vowed on Tuesday to push forward with their purchase of the Russian system, according to Reuters.

“We will hopefully start to receive the S-400 systems we purchased from Russia next month, Erdogan told his AK Party in parliament, adding: “Turkey is not a country that needs to seek permission or bow to pressures. The S-400s are directly linked to our sovereignty and we will not take a step back.

 

S-400 missile system

The United States says the jets, made by Lockheed Martin Corp., give NATO forces a number of technological advantages in the air, including the ability to disrupt enemy communications networks and navigation signals.

Turkey produces parts of the F-35s fuselage, landing gear and cockpit displays. Hutchison said Ankara was an important partner in that production but that security concerns about Russia were paramount.

So many of us have tried to dissuade Turkey,” she said. –Reuters

The United States has offered Turkey its more expensive Patriot missile system – first at full price, and then at a steep discount – however, issues arose over a timely delivery of the Raytheon-made systems.

Turkey has also complained that NATO allies have abandoned it during periods of uncertainty, causing them to seek alternatives elsewhere.

Germany and the United States stationed Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries in Turkey on a temporary basis in 2013 but moved them out in 2015, citing demands on assets elsewhere.

Washington also warned Ankara that it will face U.S. sanctions over the agreement with Moscow, a move that could deal a significant blow to Turkey’s ailing economy and its defense industry.

Turkey has dismissed the U.S. warnings, saying it would take the necessary measures to avoid complications, and proposed to form a joint working group with Washington to assess concerns. It has said U.S. officials have yet to respond to the offer. –Reuters

The US military, meanwhile, has stopped training Turkish pilots on the F-35.

Later this week, Erdogan and Trump will sit down at the G20 summit in Japan, where they are expected to discuss the issue. According to one senior NATO diplomat cited by Reuters, it will likely be the last opportunity for the two nations to reach an agreement.

“It’s not over until its over, but so far Turkey has not appeared to retract from the sale,” said Hutchison. “The consequences will occur, we don’t feel there’s a choice in that.”

end

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Mexico

Amazing 15,000  Mexican troops are deployed to the USA border

(courtesy zerohedge)

15,000 Mexican Troops Deployed To US Border

In an ongoing effort to stem the flow of illegal immigration into the United States and avoid tariffs from the Trump administration, Mexico has deployed approximately 15,000 National Guardsmen and soldiers to the border, according to AFPciting the country’s army chief.

Mexico promised earlier this month to send 6,000 National Guardsmen to its southern border, and has promised to build more migrant detention centers and checkpoints to catch and deter northbound Central Americans.

“We have a total deployment, between the National Guard and army units, of 14,000, almost 15,000 men in the north of the country,” announced Defense Minister Luis Cresencio Sandoval while standing alongside Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

When asked if troops were detaining migrants to prevent them from entering the US, Sandoval said “yes.” 

“Given that (undocumented) migration is not a crime but rather an administrative violation, we simply detain them and turn them over to the authorities” at the country’s National Migration Institute.

The government has faced criticism over migrant detentions at the northern border since an AFP photographer documented last week how heavily armed National Guardsmen in Ciudad Juarez forcefully stopped two women and a young girl from crossing the Rio Grande river into the United States.

The policy is a shift from previous practice. The Mexican security forces had not typically detained migrants at the US border in the past.

Fleeing chronic poverty and brutal gang violence in their home countries, the Central Americans crossing Mexico mostly lack migration paper –AFP

Mexico signed a deal with the Trump administration on June 7, giving the country 45 days to show meaningful results in their efforts to counter the flood of migrants entering the United States.

end

FROM LONDON’S FINANCIAL TIMES:

This is just the beginning of the outlawing of offshore accounts…Lloyds freezes 8,000 offshore accounts.

(courtesy London’s Financial Times)

and special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us..

 

Lloyds freezes 8,000 offshore Jersey accounts in dirty money push

UK lender spent three years asking clients for personal information under new rules

Gorey castle in Jersey. The island is home to Lloyds Bank International

Lloyds Banking Group froze the accounts of about 8,000 offshore banking customers as part of a crackdown on money laundering, after asking them for three years to prove their identity.

The move to meet more stringent “know your customer” requirements highlights the growing pressure on global banks to meet tougher rules on financial crime by regulators. Deutsche Bank warned 1,000 of its largest corporate clients last month that they faced a similar fate to meet money laundering rules.

Britain’s largest retail bank by market share was forced to take action at the end of 2018 to meet the money laundering rules in Jersey, where its international business is based.

Rivals HSBC, Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland have also tightened controls in Jersey, according to people briefed on the situation, sending similar letters to check the identities of longstanding customers. Authorities and people in the banks have said that only a small percentage of accounts were forced to close.

News of the move comes as the wider financial transparency of Guernsey, Jersey and the Isle of Man has come under heightened scrutiny. The islands have agreed to provide clearer information about company ownership in the tax havens, after British MPs and transparency campaigners criticised its broader efforts to keep out dirty money. Earlier this month, the Jersey Financial Services Commission proposed further revisions to strengthen its local anti-money laundering requirements after a year-long consultation.

Lloyds Bank International provides consumer and private banking services and financial advice for Channel Island residents and expatriates. LBI does not publish customer numbers, but it is understood that the frozen accounts represented less than 5 per cent of its total number of expatriate accounts.

The bank had no specific concerns about the customers but had to block thousands from accessing their accounts after they ignored repeated messages about the rules.

The bank needed extra information such as certified copies of identification documents, and Lloyds staff were working 12 hours a day and extended hours on weekends to deal with the issue, according to an internal memo seen by the Financial Times.

A spokesperson for Lloyds said: “Over the last three years we have made multiple attempts to contact these customers, asking that they provide us with the necessary information.

“Unfortunately, where a customer has not provided us with this necessary information we have had to freeze their account until we get the information. This is also to protect the customer, as it prevents anybody else trying to use the account if the customer has stopped using it or has moved address.”

Banks are being pushed to carry out more thorough due diligence on their customers after a spate of scandals engulfed European lenders such as Danske Bank in Denmark and Latvia’s ABLV.

More than €200bn of suspicious money from Russia and other former Soviet states flowed through Danske’s tiny Estonian branch over a nine-year period, while ABLV was wound up last year after being accused of a litany of breaches including helping to finance North Korea’s nuclear programme.

Lloyds has received fewer big reprimands over money laundering failures since the financial crisis than peers such as HSBC and Deutsche Bank. However, in 2009 it was forced to pay a $350m fine after violating US sanctions by enabling Iranian and Sudanese clients to access the US banking system.

The European Banking Authority, the continent’s top banking regulator, was recently given greater powers to combat money laundering, but its new chief said that they would not be enough to ensure even defences across the EU.

Late last month authorities recovered $267m from accounts belonging to the late Nigerian dictator Sani Abacha, in a move that officials said proved Jersey’s “commitment to tackling international financial crime and money laundering”.

 

end

Global iphones

This certainly gives you a good idea as to what is happening with world growth: it is plummeting. iphone calls are collapsing and that is triggering a serious breach of contract with Samsung.

(courtesy zerohedge)

iPhone X Sales Collapse Triggers Serious Breach Of Contract With Samsung 

In an exclusive, ChannelNews reveals Apple is facing hundreds of millions of dollars in penalty payments to Samsung because iPhone demand has fallen.

Apple “demanded” that Samsung construct one of the world’s biggest OLED manufacturing facilities exclusively for iPhone screens.

Overconfidence of Tim Cook, not adjusting forecasts for trade wars nor a structural decline in global growth, has crushed Apple iPhone demand across the world and breached the contract of 100M OLED iPhone screens per year with Samsung.

“Although Apple requested Samsung Display to extend its plant believing that it would use about 100 million OLED panels annually, actual market demand was far lower than Apple’ prediction.” said a Samsung media executive.

“Samsung Display took a huge blow as a result and requested a penalty from Apple in accordance with the contract.” they added.

While trade wars and lower global growth negatively weighed on iPhone demand, the price of the iPhone X also deterred consumers from upgrading.

Sources told ChannelNews the contract between both companies had significant “penalty clauses,” which Apple is currently trying to finagle itself out of. Another source told the Australian news outlet that Apple had already made one tranche of payments covering part of the fine.

Apple responded by announcing the supplied Samsung OLED were “faulty” which sources say is a stalling tactic as lawyers are negotiating the fines.

In a separate report, ETNews says the Samsung A3 plant, can deliver 105,000 6th generation flexible OLED panels per month, is working under 50% capacity.

ETNews says Apple will likely skip out on paying the complete fine to Samsung. Instead, the company will upgrade iPhone XR, iPads, and MacBooks with OLED panels to compensate for the loss of the iPhone X.

“Apple made some suggestions such as guaranteeing the supply of OLED panels for other Apple products. Samsung Display was also levied a small penalty due to faulty performance of few panels that were supplied to Apple and they are looking into many options as they both have to pay each other a penalty,” an industry source said.

The drop in units for Apple iPhone X with an OLED screen is occurring at the same time the smartphone bubble is deflating. Even Samsung Galaxy smartphones are experiencing declining sales.

ETNews said Apple has started to work with LG Display for OLED panels, but analysts believe the move will result in less production capacity and more expensive OLED panels than Samsung.

Apple has also invested in JDI (Japan Display) who will be manufacturing the company’s LED panels in the near future.

It’s hard to imagine how the largest corporation in the world [Apple] could make such a careless sales forecast of one of its most popular products that resulted in hefty fines. Nevertheless, what’s more, baffling is how Apple couldn’t see the cycle down of the global economy that started in 1Q18.

END

7. OIL ISSUES

A must read…

Trump boasts about the huge production of shale gas and oil.  The problem is these industries are bleeding red ink and now we learn that there might be some major health issues.

(Nick Cunningham/OilPrice.com)

 

 

Shale Pioneer: Fracking Is An “Unmitigated Disaster”

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

Fracking has been an “unmitigated disaster” for shale companies themselves, according to a prominent former shale executive.

“The shale gas revolution has frankly been an unmitigated disaster for any buy-and-hold investor in the shale gas industry with very few limited exceptions,” Steve Schlotterbeck, former chief executive of EQT, a shale gas giant, said at a petrochemicals conference in Pittsburgh.

“In fact, I’m not aware of another case of a disruptive technological change that has done so much harm to the industry that created the change.”

He did not pull any punches.

“While hundreds of billions of dollars of benefits have accrued to hundreds of millions of people, the amount of shareholder value destruction registers in the hundreds of billions of dollars,” he said.

“The industry is self-destructive.”

The message is not a new one. The shale industry has been burning through capital for years, posting mountains of red ink. One estimate from the Wall Street Journal found that over the past decade, the top 40 independent U.S. shale companies burned through $200 billion more than they earned. A 2017 estimate from the WSJ found $280 billion in negative cash flow between 2010 and 2017. It’s incredible when you think about it – despite the record levels of oil and gas production, the industry is in the hole by roughly a quarter of a trillion dollars.

The red ink has continued right up to the present, and the most recent downturn in oil prices could lead to more losses in the second quarter.

So, questionable economics is not exactly breaking news when it comes to shale. But the fact that a prominent former shale executive – who presided over one of the largest shale gas companies in the country – called out the industry face-to-face, raised some eyebrows, to say the least. “In a little more than a decade, most of these companies just destroyed a very large percentage of their companies’ value that they had at the beginning of the shale revolution,” Schlotterbeck said. “It’s frankly hard to imagine the scope of the value destruction that has occurred. And it continues.”

“Nearly every American has benefited from shale gas, with one big exception,” he said, “the shale gas investors.”’

The industry is at a bit of a crossroads with Wall Street losing faith and interest, finally recognizing the failed dreams of fracking. The Wall Street Journal reports that Pioneer Natural Resources, often cited as one of the strongest shale drillers in Texas, is largely giving up on growth and instead aiming to be a modest-sized driller that can hand money back to shareholders.

“We lost the growth investors,” Pioneer’s CEO Scott Sheffield said in a WSJ interview. “Now we’ve got to attract a whole other set of investors.”

Sheffield has decided to slash Pioneer’s workforce and slow down on the pace of drilling. Pioneer has been bedeviled by disappointing production from some of its wells and higher-than-expected costs.

But, as Schlotterbeck told the industry conference in Pittsburgh, the problem with fracking runs deep. While shale E&Ps have succeeded in boosting oil and gas production to levels that were unthinkable only a few years ago, prices have crashed precisely because of the surge of supply. And, because wells decline at a precipitous rate, capital-intensive drilling ultimately leaves companies on a spending treadmill.

Meanwhile, as the financial scrutiny increases on the industry, so does the public health impact. A new report that studied over 1,700 articles from peer-reviewed journals found harmful impacts on health and the environment. Specifically, 69 percent of the studies found potential or actual evidence of water contamination associated with fracking; 87 percent found air quality problems; and 84 percent found harm or potential harm on human health.

The health impacts have been a point of controversy for years, pitting the industry against local communities. The industry largely won the tug-of-war over fracking, beating back federal and state efforts to regulate it. However, the story is not over.

In many cases, there is an abundance of anecdotal evidence pointing to serious health impacts, but peer-reviewed research takes time and has lagged behind the incredible rate of drilling. Now, the public health research is starting to catch up. Of the more than 1,700 peer-reviewed studies looking at these issues, more than half have been published since 2016.

One need not be an opponent of fracking to recognize that this presents a threat to the industry. For instance, a spike of a rare form of cancer has cropped up in southwestern Pennsylvania recently. The causes are unclear, but some public health advocates and environmental groups are pointing the finger at shale gas drilling, and have called on the governor to stop issuing new drilling permits. The Marcellus Shale Coalition, an industry group, said the request was “ridiculous.” The region is right at the heart of high levels of shale drilling, so any regulatory action coming in response the public health outcry could impact drilling operations. Time will tell.

In the meantime, poor financials are the largest drag on the shale sector.

“And at $2 even the mighty Marcellus does not make economic sense,” Steve Schlotterbeck, the former EQT executive said at the conference.

“There will be a reckoning and the only questions is whether it happens in a controlled manner or whether it comes as an unexpected shock to the system.”

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

“Empty Shelves & Massive Job Cuts” Loom As Zimbabwe Abandons USDollar… Again

After a decade of dollarization to escape from the hyperinflationary hell of Mugabe’s money-printing, Zimbabwe has implicitly re-introduced the ZimDollar as the nation’s sole legal tender – banning the use of currencies such as the USDollar and South African Rand in favor of its so-called RTGS dollar.

As a reminder, Zimbabwe abandoned its own dollar in 2009 after years of hyperinflation had destroyed trust in the local unit, but, after a hoped-for economic turnaround, promised by new Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa, is yet to materialise,

As Reuters reports, Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube said in a video posted on Twitter

“The march towards full currency reform is part of our transitional stabilisation programme…This move is really beginning to restore full monetary policy.”

Additionally, the central bank also hiked its overnight lending rate to 50% from 15% as a part of a set of measures to protect the RTGS dollar introduced in February.

Jee-A Van Der Linde, an economist at South Africa-based NKC African Economics warned that banning the use of currencies such as the U.S. dollar and South African rand could create panic since Zimbabwe did not have large foreign-currency reserves to back the RTGS dollar. There was nothing standing in the way of the Zimbabwean central bank printing money as it had done in the past, he added.

Van Der Linde is not alone in his skepticism, as TechZim reports, local audit firm, Grant Thornton has provided a Commentary of yesterday’s reintroduction of the Zimbabwean Dollar which noted some inadequacies. With the introduction of SI 142 of 2019, and reading between the lines below are some of our comments with regards to the SI:

a) The instrument has all hallmarks of a hastily concocted measure to stop the downward spiral of the RTGS dollar against other currencies. Whether it will have any such effect remains to be seen.

b) Challenges in companies to restock – we envisage that with no foreign currency earnings and obtaining them on the legal market still an issue to be addressed, there is bound to be challenges for companies to restock especially if the current inventory was acquired in USD. This might, at the end of the day, lead to empty shelves and massive job cuts as companies try to streamline their costs.

c) No mention of penalties for those trading in foreign currency – the SI does not state any repercussions on companies who continue to trade in foreign currency.

d) No law prohibiting sale of goods/services or drafting of contracts in foreign currency– there is no law in Zimbabwe that requires prices to be marked up in legal tender or accounts to be drawn up in legal tender. Similarly, if parties agree that a debt should be repaid in foreign currency, then the debtor is obliged to do so. The reason being there is no law in Zimbabwe which invalidates a contract that stipulates payment must be made in foreign currency.

The RTGS dollar has been hitting new lows on the black market in recent days, and as Reuters adds, inflation raced to 97.85% in May, eroding salaries and savings and causing Zimbabweans to fear a return to the hyperinflation era a decade ago.

Source

Alex T Magaisa 🇿🇼@Wamagaisa

1. The most accurate headline is “Return of the Zimbabwe Dollar” or something similar. Because that the most important and most far reaching consequence of SI142 of 2019. All other bits are secondary stories.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Shame@ExpBusinessSA

Banning the use of foreign currency and introducing Zim dollar is a desperate move to stop re-dollarisation, anyway they will not succeed. There is no incentive to continue selling with the dead currency, sooner or later goods will vanish from shops.

Prof Jonathan Moyo

@ProfJNMoyo

All they have done is to wakeup with the OLD & failed bondcoins, bondnote & RTGS$ as the NEW previously failed currency called the Zimbabwe Dollar. You will not find a legitimate government anywhere in the civilised & democratic world engaging in such crude currency racketeering! https://twitter.com/SibandaSibbs/status/1143095353274535936 

Thabisa Siban2da@SibandaSibbs
Replying to @JabuKaMangena and 5 others

There is zero logic. The same people who told us the Zim dollar will only become available at the end of the year or first quarter 2020 now tell us the same Zim dollar is now the only legal tender. What kind of insanity is that?

Get long wh

ENDeelbarrows!!

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1352 DOWN .0017 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.04 DOWN 0.288 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2731   DOWN   0.0007  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3180 DOWN .0004 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 17 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1382 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 26.07 POINTS OR 0.87% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 327.02 POINTS OR 1.15%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,16%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 327.02 POINTS OR 1.15%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.07 POINTS OR 0.87%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 16% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 92.18  POINTS OR 0.43%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1428.25

silver:$15.41-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.01% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.53 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 96.05 UP 7 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.48% DOWN 4  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.15%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.38%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.16 UP 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 178 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.33% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.49% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1365  DOWN     .0034 or 34 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.23 DOWN .108 OR YEN UP 10  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2689 DOWN .0048 POUND  DOWN 48  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 14 basis points to 1.3198

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8798    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8852  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7938 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.15%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.00 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.53 DOWN 0 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.00 UP 2  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 5.74  0.08%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 46.13 POINTS OR .38%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 7.14 POINTS 0.13%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 32.70 POINTS or 0.30%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 155.69 POINTS OR 0.73%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 58.11 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 65.17 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE RISES:    62.92  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.37 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 37 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.33 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  57.81//

 

 

BRENT :  65.09

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.99…   VERY VERY DEADLY//

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.52..VERY DEADLY/

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1369 ( DOWN 31   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.16 DOWN .174 (YEN UP 17 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.16 UP 18 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2696 DOWN 43  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7715

 

 

the Russian rouble 62.96   DOWN 0.40  Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 40 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3176 UP 8 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8798  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8851 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.33%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN 3179.32 POINTS OR 0.67%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 120.988 POINTS OR 0.15%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  16.28 CLOSED UP 1.02

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.332%//libor dropping like a stone

 

 

 

FROM 2.349

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY//

Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Jump; Stocks Dump On Powell-Pullback, Trade-Talk

A stunned equity market could not believe that Batman Powell and Doveboy Bullard dared to talk down the odds of a 50bps rate-cut in July…

 

Ugly day in China overnight after Monday’s snoozefest…

 

 

Mixed bag in Europe with a weak open but France and Spain rallying into the close (still red on week)…

 

Ugly US housing and confidence data did not help but the cash open saw immediate selling of the modest overnight gains. The ugly data sent the US Macro Surprise Index near its lowest since June 2017…

And while Richmond Fed’s headline beat, expectations for local business has crashed to a record low… (which seems very odd considering the Richmond Fed head said today that “US Consumer dynamics remain great.”)

Then these hit and spoiled the party…

  • 1230ET Bullard – no need for 50bps
  • 1300ET Powell – monitoring, won’t bow to political pressure
  • 1330ET Trump-Xi meeting at G-20 not expected to produce a deal

All of which sent stocks lower for the second day… Trannies are the week’s worst performer followed by Nasdaq and Small Caps. For now The Dow is doing best but still lower since quad-witch…

 

Not a pretty day at all…

 

 

As the Nasdaq pushed back towards its 50DMA

 

 

Winners of June have been losers this week…

 

Abbvie and Allergan’s mega-deal did not end well for the former… ABBV lost a stunning $18bn in market cap on this deal…

 

VIX and Stocks remain decoupled…

 

As July odds for a 50bps rate-cut swung violently from 40% (pre-Bullard) to 16% (post-Powell) and back up to 26% after the ‘no trade-deal’ news…

 

Credit markets have seen notable decompression in the last few days…

 

Treasury yields continued to fade today except flat 2Y (despite a spike on Bullard headlines)…

 

10Y yields tumbled below 1.98%…

NOTE – this is the lowest closing yield for 10Y since Nov 8th 2016

 

The dollar spiked today on Bullard/Powell but faded on trade and in context to the post-FOMC move, it was nothing…

 

 

Bitcoin extended its gains, testing near $11,500 intraday (the highest since March 2018)…

 

As the big crypto tracks its 2017 analog…

 

But the rest of the crypto space did not play along…

 

Silver was down on the day as Copper, Crude, and Gold managed gains…

 

Gold was a little noisy intraday on the FedSpeak (pushing the dollar around) but held gains breaking to new 6-year highs overnight…

 

Gold/Silver soared to a new cycle high…

 

Gold’s “VIX” soared to 3 year highs, decoupling from other asset-classes…

 

Finally, don’t forget, there’s only one thing that matters…

And if The Fed doesn’t pay up and give-in to the market’s 50bps demands, the jaws of death will snap shut…

 

end

 

i) Market trading/

10Y Tumbles Below 2.00% As Stocks Fail At Friday Cliff-Edge Again

Just a quick note to show the various attempts to lift stocks in the last 24-48 hours continue to fail…

Dow futs back at Friday’s lows…

We’re gonna need more quad witches.

And 10Y Yields are slumping back towards post-Fed lows, back below 2.00%…

However, don’t worry America…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Stock Market is heading for one of the best months (June) in the history of our Country. Thank you Mr. President

end

 

MARKET TRADING/LATE MORNING

 

 

LATE AFTERNOON

Stocks Stumble As Bullard Rules Out 50bps Rate Cut In July

St.Louis Fed President Jim Bullard – and uber-dove – has apparently decide to distance himself from going ‘full-Kashkari’ by noting while “it seems like a good time for an insurance rate-cut,” the situation “doesn’t call for 50bps.”

zerohedge@zerohedge

*BULLARD: SITUATION DOESN’T CALL FOR 50 BASIS POINT RATE CUT@neelkashkari to Trump: “fire this traitor and make me Fed emperor: I got you NIRP next month”

Unfortunately the market needs moar (40% odds priced in of a 50bps cut)…

And so stocks tumbled to show their disapproval

Don’t worry though, Bullard assures the American public that “he has no immediate concerns about asset bubbles” unlike Kaplan.

Treasury yields spiked…

As did the dollar…

And the dollar’s gain was gold’s loss…

Will The Fed fold even more?

END

No deal expected and that sent the dollar and bond yields tumbling

(courtesy zerohedge)

Dollar & Bond Yields Tumble On Reports “No Deal” Expected At G-20

In what appears to be an exercise in expectations management, White House officials are talking to Reuters to set the table for this weekend’s meeting between Trump and Xi at the G-20.

  • *TRUMP, XI WILL MEET SATURDAY IN JAPAN, OFFICIAL TELLS REUTERS
  • *U.S. GOAL FOR G-20 MEETING TO REOPEN CHINA TRADE TALKS: REUTERS

Officials set the tone:

  • *SENIOR ADMIN. OFFICIAL SAYS U.S. WON’T ACCEPT TARIFF CONDITIONS
  • *U.S.-CHINA MAY AGREE ON NO NEW TARIFFS AS GOODWILL: REUTERS

Finally, and most notably, Reuters notes:

  • *NO DEAL EXPECTED AT G-20, SENIOR ADMIN. OFFICIAL SAYS
  • *U.S. DOESN’T EXPECT BROAD TRADE DEAL AFTER G20 MEETING: REUTERS
  • *CHINA TALKS MAY PERSIST FOR MONTHS, YRS, OFFICIAL TELLS REUTERS

Stocks shook off the news but bonds and the dollar did not…

We suspect the lack of drop in stocks reflects the downside risk that this would imply and thus brings back the 50bps-rate-cut scenario that Bullard and Powell have just jawboned away.

END

ii)Market data/

Not good for the uSA economy: home price appreciation slows for the 13th straight month

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Case-Shiller Home Price Appreciation Slows For 13th Straight Month

Home price appreciation in the 20 largest US cities has slowed for 13 straight months, with Case-Shiller reporting that April’s (the latest data) home price growth was just 2.5% YoY – the weakest since August 2012.

Month-over-month, home prices were unchanged (worse than the expected 0.1% gain)

 

Nationally, home prices decelerated to a 3.5% YoY pace.

Nineteen of the 20 cities in the index showed year-over-year gains, led by Las Vegas at 7.1% and Phoenix at 6%. Seattle was the exception, decelerating to unchanged year-over-year, a sharp drop from 13.1% appreciation in April 2018. The California cities of San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego also registered gains below 2%.

David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P index committee, said in a statement last month that “given the broader economic picture, housing should be doing better,” but they haven’t.

“Home price gains continued in a trend of broad-based moderation,” Philip Murphy, global head of index governance at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement.

“Year-over-year price gains remain positive in most cities, though at diminishing rates of change.”

However, there is a possible silver lining. As this data pre-empts the sudden reversal lower in mortgage rates (and pick up in mortgage apps), perhaps this price deceleration cycle is almost over… for now?

 

Although we note the collapse in mortgage rates from 2014-2016 barely helped.

end
Not good: home sales are a huge part of GDP.  May sales crash to the weakest in a year
(courtesy zerohedge)

New Home Sales Crash In May To Weakest Since 2018

After existing-home-sales rebounded modestly in May, hope was high that lower mortgage rates would spark a renaissance in the US housing market… but a shocking 7.8% crash in new home sales in May has blown that narrative out of the water.

Against expectations of a 1.6% MoM rise, new home sales plunged 7.8% in May to 626k, the weakest level since Dec 2018…

This collapse is happening despite the plunge in mortgage rates.

Median prices of new homes tumbled from $335.1K to $308K, lowest since Jan 2019…

Purchases of new homes fell in the Northeast and the West, where they dropped the most since 2010. Sales rose in the South and Midwest.

Along with the disappointing data from Case-Shiller, the rebound – on low rates – in US housing appears to be another dead cat bounce, not a phoenix.

end

Another indicator of problems in the USA economy:  consumer confidence collapses

(courtesy zerohedge)

Consumer Confidence Collapses To 2 Year Lows

After a hope-filled bounce in May, The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index plunged in June from a revised 131.3 to 121.5 (well below expectations of a modest drop to 131.0).

This is the weakest confidence print since July 2017…

 

Finally, we note that the gap between current and future confidence (DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach’s favorite recession indicator) is flashing big red recessionary signals…

 

The spread between savings and confidence is turning back down also – just as it did in 2007 and 2000…

 

You can only dis-save to spend (and juice confidence) for so long!

 end

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

FED- ex is one of the best Bellwether indicators out there for global growth.  They just warned of continued weakness in global trade

(courtesy zerohedge)

Fedex Tumbles After Warning Of “Continued Weakness In Global Trade”

After slashing guidance on more than one occasion heading into earnings, moments ago the world’s logistics bellwether and the company that is arguably most impacted by ongoing trade war, FedEx, reported Q4 results that were generally stronger than consensus estimates:

  • Q4 adjusted EPS $5.01, stronger than the $4.81 EPS (this was $5.34 back in mid-March when Fedex slashed guidance).
  • Q4 revenue of $17.8BN in line with expectations
  • Q4 operating margin 9.6%

That said, investors’ bullish mood was hardly buoyed as company only beat thanks to a number of “one-time expenses.”

When looking ahead the picture turned ugly, starting with the company’s CapEx guidance, as FedEx now sees 2020 capital expenditure at $5.9 billion, well below the estimated $6.16 billion, as yet another company confirms that trade war is stifling spending plans (although this may result in more buybacks).

However, it was the management’s comments that were notably gloomy, as CFO Alan Graf warned that “our fiscal 2020 performance is being negatively affected by continued weakness in global trade and industrial production, especially at FedEx Express.”

The company echoed this warning saying 2020 performance will be hurt by ongoing global trade weakness, which considering FedEx just sued the US government for its aggressive trade policies, is to be expected: after all, every management team is delighted to have a scapegoat to blame for underperforming, even if it is the White House.

As a result, FedEx now sees mid-single-digit percentage point decline in diluted EPS prior to the year-end MTM retirement plan accounting adjustment and excluding estimated TNT Express integration expenses compared with fiscal 2019’s adjusted earnings of $15.52 per diluted share.

Separately, FedEx also said that TNT Express integration program expenses through fiscal 2021 are now estimated to be approximately $1.7 billion, of which $350 million is expected to be incurred in fiscal 2020.

Finally, and somewhat inexplicably, Fedex said it was unable to provide a fiscal 2020 EPS effective tax rate outlook on a GAAP basis, suggesting that not even management teams have any visibility what happens next as US business climate flips by 180 degrees on any given Trump tweet.

As a result of all this, FedEx stock is once again getting hammered and after a brief spike higher as algos saw the EPS beat, it has given up all gains and was last trading at new session lows.

SWAMP STORIES

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

The Mouth that Roared, apologies to Peter Sellers, surfaced again to bash the Fed and boost stocks.

@realDonaldTrump: Despite a Federal Reserve that doesn’t know what it is doing – raised rates far too fast (very low inflation, other parts of world slowing, lowering & easing) & did large scale tightening, $50 Billion/month, we are on course to have one of the best Months of June in US history.  Think of what it could have been if the Fed had gotten it right. Thousands of points higher on the Dow, and GDP in the 4’s or even 5’s. Now they stick, like a stubborn child, when we need rates cuts, & easing, to make up for what other countries are doing against us. Blew it!

Powell should tell DJT, “You do your job; I’ll do mine.  I’m not the one reneging on campaign promises.”

@RealDonaldTrump: China gets 91% of its Oil from the Straight, Japan 62%, & many other countries likewise. So why are we protecting the shipping lanes for other countries (many years) for zero compensation. All of these countries should be protecting their own ships…

Trump signs executive order delivering ‘hard-hitting’ sanctions against Iran

Trump said the sanctions “will deny the supreme leader and the supreme leader’s office and those closely affiliated with him and the office access to key financial resources and support.”… Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the sanctions “lock up literally billions of dollars more of assets.”…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-signs-executive-order-delivering-hard-hitting-sanctions-against-iran

Fed’s Kaplan says he’s on the fence about interest-rate cut [Non-voting member]

The Dallas Fed president said a decision to cut rates would not be “free.” “I am concerned that adding monetary stimulus, at this juncture, would contribute to a build-up of excesses and imbalances in the economy, which may ultimately prove to be difficult and painful to manage,” he said…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-kaplan-says-hes-on-the-fence-about-interest-rate-cut-2019-06-24

Die Welt’s @Schuldensuehner: Over the last 10yrs, the world’s CenBankers have made an astonishing discovery: they can print as much money as they want, and even non-stop printing will have no inflationary impact. BUT latest pick-up in Gold vs Treasuries indicates an end to disinflation…

One thing about gold: When it breaks out, the moves can be very explosive because the gold market is relatively thin.  About $170B ‘notional value’ of gold trades globally each day.  Forex trades on average over $5 trillion per day.

Cong. Gohmert Responds to Undercover Video of Google Released by Project Veritas

It is no secret that Google has a political agenda… Google should not be deciding whether content is important or trivial and they most assuredly should not be meddling in our election processThey need their immunity stripped and to be properly pursued by class action lawsuits by those they have knowingly harmed.”   https://gohmert.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=399712

With Biden in freefall, pundits believe Warren and Sanders are now the favorites.  The fight to give away free stuff, in order to procure the nomination, is on!

@ByronYork: Elizabeth Warren proposes forgiving $640b in student debt. So now Bernie Sanders ups the ante: forgive it all, $1.6t. From WP:

Sanders to propose canceling entire $1.6 trillion in U.S. student loan debt, escalating Democratic policy battle [Bernie’s plan includes a 0.5% tax on stock transactions, a 0.1% tax on bond trades and a .005% tax on derivatives trades…http://ow.ly/JkHM50uLegM

‘A leftward shift’: Communist party USA sees chance as progressives surge [Convention in Chgo.]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/23/communist-party-usa-chicago-cpusa-convention

As the wealthy flee New York, poorest will be most affected

More than 46 percent of New Yorkers of all ages moving out of the state are in the bracket earning above $150,000… The Empire State budget is in near freefall, in no small part due to lower revenue from middle class and upper class workers… Governor Andrew Cuomo noted a $2.3 billion hole in the state budget earlier this year… More than 450,000 people moved out of New York in the last year alone

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/449946-as-the-wealthy-flee-new-york-poorest-will-be-most-affected

Ann Coulter: Surprise! That ‘cheap’ immigrant labor costs us a lot

The tab for illegal immigration… meaning the real cost is about $350 billion a year… Legal immigrant households… receiving $4,344 more in government services than they paid in taxes…

https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/449887-ann-coulter-surprise-that-cheap-immigrant-labor-costs-us-a-lot

[NBA boss] Adam Silver likes NBA teams moving away from term ‘owner,’ prefers ‘governor’

https://nba.nbcsports.com/2019/06/24/adam-silver-likes-nba-teams-moving-away-from-term-owner-prefers-governor/

END

Well that about does it for tonight

I will see you on WEDNESDAY night

H

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