JUNE 26 /WE ARE NOW ENTERING THE LBMA/OTC EXPIRY WHICH ENDS FRIDAY/ THE BANKERS OVERNIGHT CONTINUED WITH THEIR WHACKING OF GOLD : GOLD WAS DOWN $3.00 BUT SILVER HELD BEING UP 17 CENTS//LATELY AND NO DOUBT CRIMINAL WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING A HUGE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE PRELIMINARY OI NUMBERS AND FINAL NUMBERS IN GOLD : TODAY CLOSE TO A DIFFERENTIAL OF 23,000 CONTRACTS AND IN SILVER: ALMOST 5,000 CONTRACTS//BITCOIN RISES BY 2,000 DOLLARS TO 13,900.00 PER COIN/JEFFEREY SNIDER AND THE INVERTED LIBOR CURVE..A MUST READ..// A SURPRISE RISE OF 5% IN THE DEFICIT OF THE USA//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

 

 

GOLD: $1415.30  DOWN $3.00 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $15,32 UP 17 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)//

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1409.70

 

silver:  $15.28

 

 

YOUR DATA…

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 36 NOTICE(S) FOR 3600 OZ (0.1119 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  2403 NOTICES FOR 240300 OZ  (7.4743 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JUNE

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 532 for   2,660,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 12,743 UP 942 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 13,866 UP 2030

 

 

 

 

end

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL A CONSIDERABLE  SIZED 2594 CONTRACTS FROM 231,601 UP TO 229,007 WITH THE 25 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

0 FOR JUNE, 4314 FOR JULY. 0 FOR AUGUST, 563 FOR SEPT, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  4877 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 4877 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 4877 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 24.390 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 25 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JUNE:

48,355 CONTRACTS (FOR 18 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 48,355 CONTRACTS) OR 241.78 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2686 CONTRACTS OR 13.43 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JUNE:  241.78 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 34.42% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1112.55   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2594, WITH THE 25 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 4877 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS WILL RESUME THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES FOR SILVER ONCE WE FIRMLY ENTER FIRST DAY NOTICE WEEK

.

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED: 2594 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 4877 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 2594  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A  25 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.15 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.17 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 167% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING:  WE NO DOUBT HAD SOME ACTIVITY OF SPREADING LIQUIDATION IN SILVER YESTERDAY BUT IT IS IN FULL FORCE DURING THE NIGHT!!

 

 

 

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCHED TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 6,302 CONTRACTS, TO 577,605 ACCOMPANYING THE $1.30 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS STOPPED. THESE SPREADERS HAVE ALREADY MORPHED INTO SILVER AND THEY ARE DEEPLY INTO THE LIQUIDATION PHASE OF THEIR OPERATION.  

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 18,364 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS, AUGUST 2019: 18,364 CONTRACTS, DEC>  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 577,605.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,062 CONTRACTS: 6302 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 18,364 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 12,062 CONTRACTS OR 1,206,200 OZ OR 37.51 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A LOSS OF $3.00 IN GOLD TRADING.AND WITH THAT TINY GAIN IN PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 37.51  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER.

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE : 189,148 CONTRACTS OR 18,914,800 oz OR 588.32 TONNES (18 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 10,051 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 18 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 588.32 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 588.32/3550 x 100% TONNES =16.57% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     2,843.21 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A  CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 6,302 DESPITE THE SMALL PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK ON YESTERDAY($1.30)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 18,364 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 18,364 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 12,062 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

18,364 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 6302 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 37.51 TONNES). ..AND THIS INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.30 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE  HAD ZERO PRESENCE OF SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN GOLD  ///TODAY/

 

 

 

we had:  36 notice(s) filed upon for 3600 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY//

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:  A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.37 TONNES

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.61 TONNES

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY:

 

NO CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO SILVER INVENTORY  AT THE SILVER SLV:

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2594 CONTRACTS from 231,601 DOWN TO 229,007, AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER AND MAYBE WE HAD SOME LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS IN GOLD

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 4314 CONTRACTS FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 563  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4877 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2594  CONTRACTS TO THE 4877 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A  GOOD GAIN OF 2594 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS BUT ALSO SOME LIQUIDATION OF SPREADING SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS. (HOWEVER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION ORCHESTRATED BY THE CROOKS WAS IN FULL FORCE)..THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 12.97 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY AND NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE.

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 25 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 4877 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.79 POINTS OR 0.19%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 36.00 POINTS OR 0.13%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 107.22 POINTS OR 0.51%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .27%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8758 /Oil UP TO 58.73 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.83 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8758 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8775 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 China/Chinese affairs

 

 

i)China/

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Italy

This is going to get the Italian populace angry..the ECB is telling the Italian Government that basically the Italian gold belongs to the central bank

( zerohedge)

ii)Italy
Italy’s Salvini, totally against migrants entering his country has blocked a migrant vessel and has told Berlin and Amsterdam to take the 43 passengers.
( zerohedge)

iii)ITALY/ECBTom Luongo describes how the upcoming new MINi BOT will actually work and help save Italy.  Of course we have the 3 technocrats who are totally against the move.  Watch how Salvini will out- smart the triumvirate and get his wish on this new currency:

( Tom Luongo)

iv)EUROPE

Massive heatwave strikes Europe with temperatures north of 100 degrees

(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

 

i)IRAN

Iran offers proof that the USA drone strayed 4 miles into Iranian territory before it was shot down.

Judging from the lack of proof on the USA side of things, they are no doubt correct.

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)UAE/IRAN

UAE officials state that there is not enough proof that Iran was behind the tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman
(courtesy zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

GLOBAL ECONOMICS

(courtesy Jeffery Snider//one of the smart guys on the planet)

The following commentary from Jeffery Snider is extremely important so please pay attention

The euro dollar market is a mega trillion dollar market and thus cannot be rigged in any way.  Libor is basically identical to the eurodollar market.

Euro dollars are basically dollars located outside of the USA and the euro dollar futures is basically a bet on the future rate of interest.  When you see an inverted Libor curve and a huge falling euro dollar curve, you know that they are sounding the alarm bells.

Pay no attention to the garbage spit out by Powell..the Eurodollar message speaks for itself

(Jefferey Snider)

7. OIL ISSUES

Gasoline will soar as the USA’s largest east coast refinery in Philadelphia will close permanently due to extensive fire damage

( zerohedge

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

i)ZIMBABWE

We have been following the plight of Zimbabwe for many years.  This once proud nation and a large gold producer (over 100 tonnes per year) is in shambles.  We have witnessed the country move into hyperinflation where goods disappeared and the country issued is 100 trillion zim dollar which bought you a dozen eggs.  The the country abandoned the zim dollar and went on a dollar standard.

Now things are going from bad to worse for this country as they now outlawed the withdrawal of any foreign currency.  Stay tuned shortly to another round of hot hyperinflation

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Bershidsky writes that Putin is the big winner betting on gold and it is paying off

(courtesy Bershidsky/Bloomberg/GATA)

ii)Arun comments that cryptocurrencies should not be banned in India as it might liberate the world from the uSA dollar

(Times of India/Arun/GATA)

iii)Just the tip of the iceberg: Merrill Lynch caught criminally manipulating precious metals and in their words:  “thousands of times” over 6 years. This is only spoofing.  What about the other 99% of the time colluding and slamming gold/silver during options expiry week

(zerohedge /Market Watch/ Chris Powell/GATA)

iv)Bitcoin explodes 20% overnight and nobody knows why.  My bet it is the Chinese in Hong Kong who are scared on the extradition legislation that can cause authorities in the Mainland to extradite citizens at will.  Thus they are trying to get their wealth out of the country

( zero hedge)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

 

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

II)MARKET TRADING/USA

 

 

ii)Market data/USA

a)Another indicator of problems in the USA economy

(courtesy zerohedge)

b)This was a surprise.  Many were expecting the trade deficit to shrink in May. Instead it widened by 5.1% as both imports and exports rose.  This will be a negative entry point for 2nd quarter GDP

( zerohedge)

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Bellwether Fed ex describes how bad is the world trade growth and they say it is due to the trade war

( zero hedge)

SWAMP STORIES

a)This ought to be fun:  Mueller is subpoenaed and will testify before two house committees in July. Cannot wait until the Republicans cross examine him

(courtesy zerohedge)

b)Looks like the Democrats are going to get a shot at looking at Trump’s financesw

( zerohedge)

c)Trump is rightly angry that Mueller illegally scrubbed evidence from Strzok and Page’s phones

(courtesy zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
end
LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 6,302 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 577,605 ACCOMPANYING THE TINY RISE OF $1.30 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 18,364 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

0 FOR JUNE ’19: 0 CONTRACTS , AUG; 18,364 CONTRACTS: DEC: 0   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  18,364 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 12,062 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 18,364 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A STRONG SIZED 6,302 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  12,062 CONTRACTS OR 1,206,200 OZ OR 37.51 TONNES.

 

We are now in the  active contract month of JUNE and here the open interest stands at 146 CONTRACTS as we LOST 50 contracts.  We had  61 notices filed yesterday so we gained another of 11 contracts or 1,100 oz of gold that will stand for delivery as there appears to be some gold at the comex  as they will now try their luck on finding the fast vanishing supplies of physical gold over here.  The next contract month is the non active month of July and here the OI FELL by 115 contracts DOWN to 970 contracts.  The next big active month for deliverable gold is August and here the OI ROSE by a FELL 11,285 contracts UP to 417,083.   WE HAVE WITNESSED A HUGE CRIME SCENE WITH RESPECT TO BOTH GOLD AND SILVER TODAY AT THE COMEX.

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 36 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  3600 OZ. (0.1119 TONNES)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2594 CONTRACTS FROM 231,601 UP TO 229,007 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A  25 CENT FALL IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.  HERE WE HAVE 0 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 4 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 4 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ OF SILVER WILL ATTEMPT TO STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

THE NEXT MONTH AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY.  HERE THE OI FELL BY 21,160 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 35,837. AS WE START TO GET READY FOR THE ACTIVE AND STRONG JULY SILVER DELIVERY MONTH . WE HAVE TWO READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE.  WE GAINED 12 CONTRACTS OF OI FOR AUGUST TO STAND AT 971. THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 13,888 CONTRACTS UP TO 140,398 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for nil OZ for the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 415,555  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  669,397  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JUNE/GOLD

June 26/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
2025.45 oz
Scotia
63 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz  

nil

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
36 notice(s)
 3600 OZ
(0.1119 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
110 contracts
(11000 oz)
0.3421 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2403 notices
240300 OZ
7.4743 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into Everybody else: nil  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ NO amount  arrived   today

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i ) out of Scotia:  2025.45 oz  *this arrived from JPMorgan sent last night

63 kilobars

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 2025.45   oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today

FOR THE JUNE 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 1 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 36 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2403) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JUNE. (146 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (36 x 100 oz per contract) equals 251,300 OZ OR 7.816 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (2403 x 100 oz)  + (146)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (36 x 100 oz )which equals 251,300 oz standing OR 7.816 TONNES in this  active delivery month of JUNE.

We GAINED 11 contracts or an additional 1100 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. Somebody was in need of physical gold badly on this side of the pond.

 

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 10.043 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 7.816 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  322,910.634 oz or  10.043 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,691,811.784 oz 239.24 tonnes

 

 

 

 OPEN INTERESTS FOR THE UPCOMING JUNE 2019 CONTRACT VS JUNE 2018

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE INITIAL JUNE 2018 CONTRACT WE HAD A HUGE 32.152 TONNES STAND. (VS 7.816 TONNES TODAY/JUNE 2019)

HOWEVER BY MONTH’S END ONLY 21.56 TONNES EVENTUALLY STOOD AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.  AS YOU CAN SEE, THE CROOKS ARE FOLLOWING THE SAME FORMAT OF MORPHING VS LAST YEAR AS ONLY GOLD VAPOUR SEEMS TO BE PHYSICALLY PRESENT AT THE COMEX AND LONGS MUST TRY THEIR LUCK IN LONDON.

IN THE LAST 32 MONTHS 117 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF June

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
june 27 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 632,129.341 oz
Scotia
Delaware
HSBC

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,569,808.211 oz
CNT
JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 532 contracts

2,660,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  374,172.270  oz

ii)into CNT: 1,195,635.941 oz

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.8 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.34% of all official comex silver. (153.8 million/305.509 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  1`,569,808.211  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) out of Delaware  2716.500 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 29,215.641 oz

iii) Out of HSBC:  600,197.200 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total 632,129.341  oz

 

we had 0 adjustments :

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  86.515 million

total dealer + customer silver:  305.509 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JUNE 2019. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR nil oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 532 x 5,000 oz = 2,660,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE. (0) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JUNE/2019 contract month: 432(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE( 0) number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 2,660,000 oz of silver standing for the JN contract month.

WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL nil OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.  IT SEEMS THAT SOMEBODY WAS BADLY IN NEED OF PHYSICAL SILVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 4 notice(s) filed for 20,000 OZ for the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  163,980 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 242,790 CONTRACTS..(we no doubt had considerable spreading activity as they are now in the liquidation phase of their operation) 

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 242,790 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 1,214 million  OZ 173%% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -0.29% June 26/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.25% to NAV (JUNE 26/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -0.29%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.76 TRADING 13.26/DISCOUNT 3.64

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.61 TONNES

JUNE 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.30 (AND WAY UP BEFORE THE BANKERS WHACKED) WE WITNESSED ANOTHER 1.95 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 801.98 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.00 A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 34.93 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.03 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD UP $  2.90, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT: 764.10 TONNES

June 20/WITH GOLD UP $47.95, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONES

JUNE 18/JUNE 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

 

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 14/ WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.70 TONNES

JUNE 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.65 CENTS TODAY: A TINY CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .24 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.42 TONNES

JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

JUNE 6/WITH GOLD UP  $8.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $6.00 TODAY/STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

JUNE 4/WITH GOLD UP 0.85 TODAY: A MONSTROUS PAPER GAIN OF 16.44 TONNES/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.65 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD UP $17.50 TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE, A DEPOSIT OF 2.35 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//

MAY 31/WITH GOLD UP $17.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES

MAY 30: WITH GOLD UP $6.40 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES

MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES

MAY 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES

MAY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.81 TONNES

MAY 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY: A STRANGE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FORM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738,81 TONNES

MAY 22//WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: WE HAD A GOOD 1.52 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 739.69 TONNES

 

MAY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.65 TODAY: A SURPRISE 2.00 TONNES WERE ADDED  TO THE GLD GOLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.17 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 A HUGE 2.96 TONNE DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.17 TONNES

MAY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.50: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.23 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 15/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

MAY 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45 TODAY: STRANGE!! THE CROOKS DECIDED TO DEPOSIT A HUGE 3.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JUNE 26/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 799.61 tonnes

*IN LAST 617 TRADING DAYS: 135.15 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 517 TRADING DAYS: A NET 30.48 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 20/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 18 WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9  CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.413 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 11/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

june 7/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 12 CENTS, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

jUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 9 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZE DEPOSIT OF 630,087 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.396 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.434 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 4/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//

MAY 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 422,000 OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ/

May 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ///

MAY 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ/

MAY 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 22/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 311.616 MILLION OZ

MAY 21: WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ

MAY 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.185 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY VAULTS:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ//

MAY 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ//

MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV  INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.031 MILLION OZ//  THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ.

MAY 14/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

 

 

JUNE 26/2019:

 

Inventory 319.819 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.02/ and libor 6 month duration 2.18

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .16

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.85%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.15

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.30

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

If Gold

ii) Physical stories courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Bershidsky writes that Putin is the big winner betting on gold and it is paying off

(courtesy Bershidsky/Bloomberg/GATA)

Leonid Bershidsky: Putin’s big bet on gold is paying off

 Section: 

By Leonid Bershidsky
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, June 25, 2019

For years Russia has been the world’s biggest sovereign gold bug. Even while gold prices were in the doldrums, it doggedly kept increasing its reserves. Now that gold is at the highest level since 2013, the tactic appears to be paying off.

… 

The U.S. dollar’s dominance as a global reserve currency is commonly thought to result from the dearth of safe assets. Russia, however, recently has provided an example of how a sizable economy with the world’s fifth-biggest international reserves can minimize dollar assets and still do well. So far it doesn’t have many followers, but gold buying by central banks is going up. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-25/putin-s-gold-bet-i…

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

Arun comments that cryptocurrencies should not be banned in India as it might liberate the world from the uSA dollar

(Times of India/Arun/GATA)

T.K. Arun: Cryptocurrency might liberate the world from the U.S. dollar

 Section: 

Why India Should Not Outlaw Cryptocurrencies

By T.K. Arun
The Times of India, Mumbai
Tuesday, June 25, 2019

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/why-india-shoul…

Even as plans are afoot to launch a digital rupee, India proposes to ban cryptocurrencies altogether, and a law is reportedly in the works that would make holding cryptocurrencies a crime that would put you in jail. The Reserve Bank of India has already banned cryptocurrencies.

This is myopic. India needs to be open to the possibility of using cryptocurrencies for international payments bypassing the U.S. dollar.

… 

Cryptocurrencies have a bad name and that is probably well-earned. But all currencies that move around using blockchain technology are not of the same kind. A subgroup is called stablecoins. Unlike bitcoins, which can be produced independently of any central bank, whose value is unstable and whose total numbers would hit a predetermined ceiling, stablecoins are linked to fiat currency, managed by banks and other reliable entities.

The principal attraction of a new stablecoin — there are many floating around, apart from Facebook’s proposed Libra — is the possibility of using that for settling international payments that do not involve a U.S. counterparty, without using the dollar.

When negotiations were creating the International Monetary Fund, John Maynard Keynes had proposed, on behalf of the British government, creation of Bancor, a new unit of account for settling international payments in a new International Clearing Union. The Americans pooh-poohed the idea and said the dollar would do quite well as the world’s currency for settling international payments, thank you.

The war-ravaged Brits were in no position to resist the pressure of the U.S., then financing much of the Allies’ war effort, and Bancor went into that heap of good ideas in history that never saw the light of day.

The U.S. derives much power from the use of the dollar as the world’s principal currency for settling payments between countries. It can borrow as much it wants from the rest of the world and simply print dollars to repay the loans. Other countries cannot follow that example. That is bad enough.

Those were innocent times when the U.S. merely profited from global seigniorage. Then it started weaponizing the dollar. The latest example is the Iran sanctions. If any entity transacts with any entity that has transacted with Iran, even indirectly, that entity would be denied access to the dollar payment network.

No bank can afford to be cut off from access to the dollar. So no bank would deal with anyone that deals with an entity against which the U.S. has declared secondary sanctions. The dollar is a powerful weapon in the hands of the U.S. that it can wield against anyone it wants to. The Europeans made a half-hearted attempt to create a shield for European companies that want to do business with Iran, but this found no takers — so little credibility did this system have.

Clearly, the way out is to have a payments system that allows transactions that do not involve a U.S. counterparty to be settled in a currency other than the dollar. Of course you can settle trade with the European Union in euros and trade with Japan in yen, if you have those currencies in reserve. If you do not, you have to settle in dollars, as with all other countries.

Creating a payments system that sidesteps the dollar is primarily a political task, granted. But if the courage is summoned, a technical challenge would still remain. A blockchain-based currency is the most likely technical solution. If India’s legal system makes all blockchain-based currencies beyond the pale, that would hurt India’s ability to take part in, leave alone lead, an effort by a coalition of nations to create a payment mechanism outside the dollar framework. Facebook’s Libra is the one making the most news. But JPMorgan is launching its own stablecoin. IBM has created the framework for a global payments system using cryptocurrencies.

Not all currencies and payment systems that make use of the distributed ledger inherent in blockchain are suspect by definition. Of course systems must be put in place to prevent money laundering and heists that leave the unwary and the unsavvy bereft of their savings.

Distributed ledgers would probably play a big role in fintech solutions for cross-border remittances. When a migrant laborer in Dubai wants to send money back home to India, the cost can be prohibitive, as much as 5%. Fintech is working on the problem. Several of the solutions could take the form of tokens that move around on the blockchain technology. India should not be prohibiting such experiments.

Instead of banning cryptocurrencies, India should be taking the lead to rope in China, the EU, and other willing governments and the Bank for International Settlements to create payment and settlement systems that do not allow one issuer of a national currency to acquire a stranglehold over the global financial system, leaving open the possibility of a new stablecoin linked to a basket of currencies being created for the purpose, the basket and the linkage being managed by a credible body such as the BIS.

END

Just the tip of the iceberg: Merrill Lynch caught criminally manipulating precious metals and in their words:  “thousands of times” over 6 years. This is only spoofing.  What about the other 99% of the time colluding and slamming gold/silver during options expiry week

(zerohedge /Market Watch/ Chris Powell/GATA)

Merrill Lynch fined by Justice Department, CFTC for spoofing in precious metals futures

 Section: 

By Francine McKenna
MarketWatch.com, New York
Tuesday, June 25, 2019

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/merrill-lynch-fined-by-doj-cftc-for-sp…

Merrill Lynch’s global commodities trading business agreed today to pay $25 million and enter into a non-prosecution agreement with the Department of Justice to settle charges regarding a multi-year scheme by its precious metals traders to mislead the market for precious metals futures contracts traded on the Commodity Exchange Inc.

Merrill Lynch admitted to the allegations that beginning by at least 2008 and continuing through 2014, its precious metals traders schemed to deceive other market participants by injecting materially false and misleading information into the precious metals futures market by placing fraudulent “spoof” orders for precious metals futures contracts that, at the time the traders placed thousands of fraudulent orders, they intended to cancel before execution.

The intention was to manipulate the market by creating the false impression of increased supply or demand and, in turn, to fraudulently induce other market participants to buy and to sell futures contracts at quantities, prices, and times that they otherwise likely would not have done so.

MLCI and its parent company, Bank of America Corp., also agreed to cooperate with the government’s ongoing investigation of individuals and to report to the government evidence or allegations of criminal violations.

The Justice Department also obtained an indictment against Edward Bases and John Pacilio, two former MLCI precious metals traders, in July 2018 related to this investigation. Those charges are pending. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission also settled charges with MLCI today for related, parallel proceedings where MLCI agreed to pay a civil monetary penalty of $11.5 million.

Merrill Lynch Caught Criminally Manipulating Precious Metals Market “Thousands Of Times” Over 6 Years

Remember when it was pure tinfoil-hat conspiracy theory to accuse one or more banks of aggressively, compulsively and systematically manipulating the precious metals – i.e., gold and silver – market? We do, after all we made the claim over and over, while demonstrating clearly just how said manipulation was taking place, often in real time.

Well, it’s always good to be proven correct, even if it is years after the fact.

On Tuesday after the close, the CFTC announced that Merrill Lynch Commodities (MLCI), a global commodities trading business, agreed to pay $25 million to resolve the government’s investigation into a multi-year scheme by MLCI precious metals traders to mislead the market for precious metals futures contracts traded on the COMEX (Commodity Exchange Inc.). The announcement was made by Assistant Attorney General Brian A. Benczkowski of the Justice Department’s Criminal Division and Assistant Director in Charge William F. Sweeney Jr. of the FBI’s New York Field Office. In other words, if the Merrill Lynch Commodities group was an individual, he would have gotten ye olde perp walk.

As MLCI itself admitted, beginning in 2008 and continuing through 2014, precious metals traders employed by MLCI schemed to deceive other market participants by injecting materially false and misleading information into the precious metals futures market.

They did so in the now traditional market manipulation way – by placing fraudulent orders for precious metals futures contracts that, at the time the traders placed the orders, they intended to cancel before execution.  In doing so, the traders intended to “spoof” or manipulate the market by creating the false impression of increased supply or demand and, in turn, to fraudulently induce other market participants to buy and to sell futures contracts at quantities, prices and times that they otherwise likely would not have done so. Over the relevant period, the traders placed thousands of fraudulent orders.

Of course, since we are talking about a bank, and since banks are in charge of not only the DOJ, and virtually every other branch of government, not to mention the Fed, nobody will go to jail and MLCI entered into a non-prosecution agreement and agreed to pay a combined – and measly – $25 million in criminal fines, restitution and forfeiture of trading profits.

Under the terms of the NPA, MLCI and its parent company, Bank of America, have agreed to cooperate with the government’s ongoing investigation of individuals and to report to the Department evidence or allegations of violations of the wire fraud statute, securities and commodities fraud statute, and anti-spoofing provision of the Commodity Exchange Act in BAC’s Global Markets’ Commodities Business, whose function is to conduct wholesale, principal trading and sales of commodities.  Laughably, MLCI and BAC also agreed to enhance their existing compliance program and internal controls, where necessary and appropriate, to ensure they are designed to detect and deter, among other things, manipulative conduct in BAC’s Global Markets Commodities Business.

Translation: it will be much more difficult to catch them manipulating the market next time.

The Department reached this resolution based on a number of factors, including MLCI’s ongoing cooperation with the United States – which means the DOJ must have had the bank dead to rights with many traders potentially ending up in jail – and MLCI and BAC’s remedial efforts, including conducting training concerning appropriate market conduct and implementing improved transaction monitoring and communication surveillance systems and processes. Translation – no longer boasting about market manipulation on semi-public chatboards.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission also announced a separate settlement with MLCI today in connection with related, parallel proceedings.  Under the terms of the resolution with the CFTC, MLCI agreed to pay a civil monetary penalty of $11.5 million, along with other remedial and cooperation obligations in connection with any CFTC investigation pertaining to the underlying conduct.

As part of the investigation, the Department obtained an indictment against Edward Bases and John Pacilio, two former MLCI precious metals traders, in July 2018.  Those charges remain pending in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois.

This case was investigated by the FBI’s New York Field Office.  Trial Attorneys Ankush Khardori and Avi Perry of the Criminal Division’s Fraud Section prosecuted the case.  The CFTC also provided assistance in this matter.

Oh, and for anyone asking if they will get some of their money back for having been spoofed and manipulated by Bank of America, and countless other banks, into selling to buying positions that would have eventually made money, the answer is of course not.

The full non-prosecution agreement and attachments is below (pdf link)

end

iii) Other physical stories:

Bitcoin explodes 20% overnight and nobody knows why.  My bet it is the Chinese in Hong Kong who are scared on the extradition legislation that can cause authorities in the Mainland to extradite citizens at will.  Thus they are trying to get their wealth out of the country

(courtesy zero hedge)

Bitcoin Explodes 20% Overnight, Rises Just Shy Of $13,000 And Everyone Wants To Know Why

After breaching $10K over the weekend for the first time since March 2018, bitcoin has accelerated its sharp move higher and, trading close to $13,000 on Wednesday, up almost 20% in the past 24 hours. It is now up 240% since the start of the year, and even though it remains below its all-time high of nearly $20,000, at the current pace, it will surpass its all time high in just a few days.

The last time Bitcoin rose above $12,000 was in December 2017, when it continued to rally, on some days moving several thousand dollars in hours, eventually reaching its all time high as $19,511 just before Christmas 2017. That surge, however, was followed by a calamitous drop as retail investors fled, with the crypto dropping below $6,000 by February, and hitting $3000 just months later. All in all, in December 2017 and January 2018, Bitcoin spent about six weeks above $12,000.

Will this time be different, is the main question asked by traders. And as usual, the second biggest question posed by traders, investors, speculators and plain old haters is what is the reason behind the move.

According to some, Facebook’s announcement this month has revived interest in coins, while investors seeking safety have also pushed up Bitcoin’s price.

“It obviously does appear to be benefiting from some sort of flows that gold is benefiting, too,” CMC Markets chief strategist Michael Hewson said. “You’ve got all this stuff about Libra going on, which is renewing interest in bitcoin. Crypto is back in vogue.”

That part was right; what he said next, however, was not – he added that the investors buying bitcoin were speculative. That is precisely the opposite of what JPM found last weekend when the bank concluded that the current bout of buying is not retail – as was the case for much of 2017 – but institutional.

Meanwhile, as bulls cheer signs that the next bubble in cryptos is well and truly here, sparked by interest in virtual currencies from major companies like Facebook and JPMorgan, skeptics say it’s unclear how those initiatives will ultimately benefit Bitcoin and its peers.

It is also unclear if Facebook’s Libra “crypto” experiment has anything to do with the recent move. To be sure, it’s not news as it was well known months in advance that Facebook was launching its “crypto” product, which as explained here before, is not even crypto. Instead what appears to be causing the rush into bitcoin, ethereum and other cryptos is global monetary policy (and Chinese capital flight).

Meanwhile, not everyone agrees with JPM that institutions are now long bitcoin: according to the WSJ citing the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report, hedge funds and other money managers held about 14% more bearish “short” positions in CME bitcoin futures last week than they did bullish “long” positions,

Other large traders were even more bearish. “Other reportables”—a loose category of firms that don’t necessarily manage money for outside investors—held more than three times as many short positions in bitcoin futures as long ones, the CFTC report shows.

The WSJ concludes that it is mostly small, retail investors who are taking the other side of the trade, in clear disagreement with JPM’s conclusion. Among traders with fewer than 25 bitcoin contracts, a category that likely captures many individuals placing bets in bitcoin, long wagers outnumbered short bets by 4 to 1.

“Traditional market participants may be more skeptical of [bitcoin] than millennial day traders,” said George Michalopoulos, a portfolio manager with Chicago fund manager Typhon Capital Management LLC, although he stressed that his views were speculative and that it is hard to know what is driving the CFTC’s numbers.

Of course, if the WSJ is right, it would suggest that a big reason for the bitcoin surge higher is an institutional short squeeze as retail investors are once again proven right.

 

end

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8758/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8775   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 5.79 POINTS OR 0.19%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 36.00 POINTS OR 0.13%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 107.22 POINTS OR 0.51%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 96.28/Euro FALLS TO 1.1365

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.14/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.69/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.73 and Brent: 65.83

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.31%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.15% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.39%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.46: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.48

3k Gold at $1404.30 silver at: 15.28   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 28/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.16

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 65 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.69 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9769 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1104 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.31%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.02% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.54%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7670..

Global Stocks, Futures Surge After Mnuchin Says US-China Trade Deal “90% Complete”

Global markets and US equity futures are so desperate for any trade war optimism that they positively soared just after 5am EDT when Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin regurgitated a long-running soundbite, saying that a trade deal between China and the United States was “90% completed”, days before a high-stakes meeting between the two countries’ leaders.

In an interview with CNBC on Wednesday morning, Mnuchin said this week’s G-20 summit in Osaka where Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump are expected to meet, would be “a very important G20” and adding that “we were about 90 per cent of the way there [to a trade deal] and I think there’s a path to complete this,” he said, without specifying the remaining 10 per cent.

Embedded video

CNBC International

@CNBCi

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says a U.S.-China trade deal is “about 90% of the way there.” https://cnb.cx/2IL7EMc

On the other hand, it appears that nothing Mnuchin said was actually new as he footnoted his statement by saying that “the message we want to hear is that they want to come back to the table and continue because I think there is a good outcome for their economy and the U.S. economy to get balanced trade and to continue to build on this relationship.” 

And while to many traders that was just a rehash of the default US position, one which has been voiced on many times before and did not offer any new facts or hint at the concessions demanded by China, it was enough to push US equity futures which until then had traded unchanged sharply higher, with European stocks following the move tick for tick.

Up until the Mnuchin comment, global stocks fell while the dollar rose on Wednesday as comments from Powell and Bullard dampened excitement about an aggressive rate cut as early as July from the world’s most important central bank.  Fed Chairman Powell and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on Tuesday pushed back on market expectations and presidential pressure for a significant U.S. interest rate cut of half a percentage point as soon as its next meeting.

Powell said the central bank is “insulated from short-term political pressures”. But he said he and his colleagues are currently grappling with whether uncertainties around U.S. tariffs, Washington’s conflict with trading partners and tame inflation require a rate cut.

As a result, the The European STOXX 600 index had fallen 0.3% to its lowest level in a week, while Germany’s Dax was down 0.15%, as the MSCI world equity index was down 0.16%, while U.S. futures indicated a flat to lower open.

All that reversed however on Mnuchin’s comments and the result was a sea of green across European markets and US futures, a move which however will be promptly reversed as traders realize that a trade deal with China only makes a rate cut by the Fed that much more unlikely, especially if the US does – as Bloomberg reported yesterday – delay the implementation on an additional $300 billion in Chinese imports as talks between the two superpowers restart.

Following Mnuchin’s comments, look for July rate cut odds to slide even more – according to latest market data, federal funds futures implied that traders saw a 27% chance of the Fed lowering rates by half a percentage point in July, compared to 42% on Monday.

While Mnuchin’s comments revived risk appetite, a major breakthrough may not come this weekend and Trump’s advisers are pushing him to avoid a hard deadline on implementing a new tranche of tariffs.Many traders hope the Federal Reserve will mitigate any headwinds to global growth with deep cuts, though Fed member James Bullard made clear Tuesday that’s not a given, as Bloomberg noted.

“My biggest concern here is that people think higher tariffs, or the threat of higher tariffs, can be offset by the promise of lower rates,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPM Asset Management. “That’s not going to work.”

After sliding earlier, Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index erased an earlier drop of as much as 0.4% led by banks and autos shares, with health-care and utilities declining the most. Thyssenkrupp AG jumped on a report that Finnish manufacturer Kone Oyj is preparing a bid for the company’s elevator business.

Earlier in the session, and before Mnuchin’s comments hit, Asian stocks dropped for a second day driven by Powell’s hawkish comments combined with his warning of rising downside risks to the U.S. economy. Consumer staples and consumer discretionary were among the worst-performing sectors. Most markets in the region declined, with Japan and Taiwan leading losses. The Topix gauge fell 0.6%, driven by SoftBank Group and Kao. The Shanghai Composite Index edged down 0.2%, as Washington is said to delay imposing additional tariffs on China while both sides prepare to resume trade negotiations. CSC Financial and China Merchants Bank were among the biggest drags. The S&P BSE Sensex Index climbed 0.3%, led by HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, as a deficient monsoon and signs of slowing growth raised hopes for stimulus in the federal budget next month.

Meanwhile, the Fed remains in a bind and will be unable to reverse its stance should any good news emerge: Richard Dias, multi asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management, said the Fed had effectively backed itself into a corner, making a cut in July or September highly likely.

“They are in a weird dichotomy, so many cuts are priced in and the market has rallied on this news and the bond market has rallied so if they don’t deliver what they have telegraphed, their credibility will be impinged,” he said, adding that he expected a cut of 25 basis points. “They would never do 50 bps, we are not in a recession,”

Elsewhere, in rates, what was initially a modest sell-off in U.S. Treasuries accelerates, and pushed 10Y Treasury yields climbed above 2% after closing around 1.98% yesterday. Euro-area bonds slipped as Austria looked to offer its second 100-year bond. Germany’s 10-year benchmark bond yield held around -0.32%.

In FX, the dollar steadied and the New Zealand dollar edged higher after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) stood pat on monetary policy, keeping rates at a record low 1.50%. But the kiwi’s gains were limited as the central bank expressed concern towards economic risks at home and abroad. “Overall, today’s announcement provides a strengthened signal that another cut is coming, most likely soon, unless there is a marked improvement in the global outlook,” wrote economists at HSBC. The kiwi last traded 0.2% higher at $0.6651. Month- and quarter-end flows provided choppy price action in the euro and the pound, which traded with a defensive tone overall.

The yuan fell to its lowest since December against a basket of trading partners’ currencies but pared an earlier drop against the dollar, with investors remaining cautious ahead of this week’s G-20 summit. Investors are reluctant to be too bullish on the meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at this week’s G-20 summit, said Irene Cheung, a senior strategist at ANZ Bank. A third consecutive decline saw the Bloomberg CFETS RMB Index tracker fall to its lowest level since December. Hao Zhou, senior emerging markets economist at Commerzbank AG, said the yuan was pressured by an unwinding of EUR-CNY trades. He added that the yuan could edge lower on continued G-20 caution and on a report that three Chinese banks could face fallout from an investigation into North Korean sanctions violations.

A US admin official said USD would be less strong and the EUR would be less weak if the Fed took back rate hike from last fall, while the official added that there are many opinions in the White House about the President’s authority to demote Powell but also stated that the White House has no plans to demote Fed Chair Powell.

In the latest geopolitical news, North Korea said US extension of sanctions against North Korea is a direct challenge to Singapore summit agreement and an extreme act of hostility. Elsewhere, Iran’s atomic energy organisation spokesman says Iran will speed up the enrichment of uranium as the deadline given to European countries ends tomorrow, while Russia said it could ramp up safety measures for its workers in Iran, according to Russian press. Oh, and Iran’s Supreme Leader Khameni says Iran will not retreat in the face of US pressure.

U.S. crude oil futures advanced roughly 2% to touch a four-week high of $59.10 per barrel after data showed a decline in U.S. crude stocks. Gold retreated from a multi-year high.

Elsewhere, Bitcoin surged above $12,000 for the first time in more than a year, and briefly came within striking distance of the $13,000 mark.

Economic data include durable goods orders, inventory figures. Scheduled earnings include General Mills, Paychex, IHS Markit

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 2,936
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 383.91
  • MXAP down 0.4% to 158.68
  • MXAPJ down 0.06% to 522.99
  • Nikkei down 0.5% to 21,086.59
  • Topix down 0.6% to 1,534.34
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 28,221.98
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 2,976.28
  • Sensex up 0.1% to 39,490.07
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,640.49
  • Kospi up 0.01% to 2,121.85
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to -0.323%
  • Euro down 0.08% to $1.1358
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 1.797%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 0.388%
  • Brent Futures up 1% to $65.72/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.8% to $1,412.41
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 96.26

Top Overnight News

  • In an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, Mnuchin expressed optimism that a U.S.-China trade deal could be reached by year end, saying the two sides “were about 90% of the way there and I think there’s a path to complete this,” with a need still for “the right efforts”
  • U.S. prosecutors are investigating an international network of traders suspected of infiltrating banks and companies to glean confidential information on megadeals, according to people familiar with the matter
  • Special Counsel Robert Mueller agreed to testify publicly before two House panels, setting up a dramatic hearing that promises to reinvigorate the national debate over his findings on Russian election interference and possible obstruction of justice by President Donald Trump
  • Algorithmic trading programs can be fast, but they also have to be right. While the RBNZ kept rates on hold Wednesday as widely expected, one tweet from a financial data company said rates had been cut, causing New Zealand’s currency fell as much as 0.6% before rebounding
  • The U.S. is willing to suspend the next round of tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports while Beijing and Washington prepare to resume trade negotiations, people familiar with the plans said
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the downside risks to the U.S. economy have increased recently, reinforcing the case among policy makers for somewhat lower interest rates
  • Boris Johnson toughened his Brexit rhetoric with a “do or die” pledge to leave the European Union on Oct. 31 as Jeremy Hunt, his underdog rival to become U.K. prime minister, battled to persuade Tory party members the strategy is flawed
  • President Donald Trump threatened Iran with forceful retaliation for any attack on the U.S. after the Islamic Republic ruled out talks to resolve escalating tensions between the two nations
  • Oil ramped higher after an industry report suggested U.S. crude stockpiles continue to shrink, another bullish signal for a market that’s been boosted by the uncertain standoff in the Middle East.
  • Australia is urging Indo-Pacific nations to step up their commitment to free trade as the worsening fallout from the U.S.-China impasse threatens global growth
  • Special Counsel Robert Mueller has agreed to testify before two House committees on July 17, the chairmen of the panels said Tuesday night, promising to reinvigorate the national debate over his findings on Russia election interference and possible obstruction of justice by Donald Trump

Asian equity markets were mostly subdued following the headwinds from Wall St where stocks posted their worst performance in nearly a month as Fed speakers tempered rate cut bets. This was after Fed Chair Powell said many on the Fed see a case for more accommodation but also stressed the importance of not overreacting, and Fed’s Bullard who was the lone dovish dissenter at the last meeting, stated that he does not prefer a 50bps rate cut in July. ASX 200 (-0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) weakened with Australia led lower by gold miners after a pullback in the precious metal although resilience in healthcare, materials and industrials limited the downside, while sentiment in Tokyo was also downbeat with Japan Display among the laggards in the spotlight after several other groups withdrew from the Co. bailout. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) were indecisive amid further PBoC liquidity inaction and ongoing uncertainty heading into the Trump-Xi meeting at this week’s G20, with the US said to be unwilling to give concessions on trade at the meeting and that no broad deal is expected, although it was also reported that the US is considering suspending the next round of tariffs on an additional USD 300bln of Chinese imports as the sides prepare to resume trade discussions. Finally, 10yr JGBs tracked the late losses seen in T-notes as market pricing of a 50bps Fed cut in July declined to 25% from around 43% the prior day, although the downside for Japanese bonds was cushioned by the negative risk tone and BoJ Rinban operation for JPY 775bln of JGBs concentrated in 1yr-5yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • Bank of Thailand Holds Key Rate as Growth Weakens, Baht Surges
  • Asia’s Monster Trade Pact Could Be Done This Year, Minus a Few
  • China Urges U.K. to Not Interfere in Hong Kong Affairs
  • SGX Upholds Trades That Briefly Wiped $2 Billion From UOB Value

European equities rebounded off lows [Eurostoxx 50 +0.4%] after US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin sounded upbeat on US-China trade negotiations heading into this week’s G20.  Mnuchin reiterated that the deal is “90% done”, albeit US officials have previously noted that the last 10% remains the hurdle. Although some suggested that Mnuchin was speaking in the past tense. Nonetheless, this boosted bourses out of the neutral/flat territory they had been in. Sectors are mixed, with energy and material names supported by price action in oil and base metals respectively, while financials outperform as yields nursed some recent losses post-Bullard and Powell, meanwhile the latest bout of Mnuchin-sparked “risk on” also weighed on bonds. Furthermore, chip names are supported amid optimistic earnings from Micron after-market yesterday (STMicroelectronics +2.5%, AMS +4.1%, Infineon +1.2%). In terms of other individual movers, Thyssenkrupp (+7.0%) shares spiked higher at the open amid speculation that Kone (-0.1%) is readying a bid for the Co’s elevator unit. Meanwhile, Brenntag (-4.1%) rest at the foot of the Stoxx 600 amid reports that the Co. sold dual-use chemicals to Syria.

Top European News

  • U.K. Breakeven Yields Fall as Lords Seeks Response on Inflation
  • Italian Bonds Briefly Extend Decline as 1Q Deficit Touches 4.1%
  • Italy First Quarter Budget Deficit at 4.1% of GDP
  • As Johnson Eyes No-Deal, MPs Vow to Fight Him: Brexit Update

In FX, FOMC easing prospects prompted by Powell and Bullard that have both cautioned against reacting too aggressively to downside growth and inflation risks. Hence, market pricing has shifted further towards 25 bp from 50 bp and the Greenback is clawing back some losses, especially against safer-havens amidst pre-G20 comments from US Treasury Security Mnuchin reiterating that 90% of the trade accord with China has been completed. The index is holding within 96.145-322 parameters, and for now at least not succumbing to bearish spot month end rebalancing requirements according to 3 if not more bank models.

  • NZD/AUD/CAD – The Kiwi is extending its winning run in wake of the RBNZ’s latest policy meeting and accompanying statement that reinforced guidance for lower rates, but was tempered somewhat by a balanced assessment of the economic outlook due to softer property prices vs more expansive fiscal policy. Moreover, the aforementioned latest US-China reports have sparked a broad rise in risk appetite with Nzd/Usd just topping out around 0.6680 and Aud/Usd retesting offers/resistance ahead of 0.7000. Meanwhile, the Loonie is consolidating gains made on the back of yesterday’s upbeat Canadian wholesale trade data with the aid of rebounding oil prices, with Usd/Cad hovering close to the bottom of a 1.3193-42 range and not visibly reacting to China extending its import ban to include all meat from Canada.
  • NOK – Another marked G10 outperformer and also fuelled by the post-API crude comeback, but deriving additional momentum from much better than forecast Norwegian jobs data, as Eur/Nok nestles around 9.6600 vs 9.7125 at one stage.
  • JPY/CHF – As noted above, the Yen and Franc have been undermined by less dovish Fed perceptions and revived US-China trade aspirations even though the Mnuchin ‘revelation’ is likely a statement about how things stood before talks ended in accusations of blame for reneging on pledges by both sides. Nevertheless, Usd/Jpy has nudged up over 107.50 from sub-107.00 on Tuesday and into the upper echelons of option expiries extending to 108.00-10 in decent size – see our 7.11BST post on the headline feed for full details. Similarly, Usd/Chf has rebounded to 0.9780 or thereabouts and Eur/Chf is back above 1.1100.
  • GBP/EUR – Sterling and the single currency are both relatively rangebound as Cable flits between 1.2705-2664 amidst BoE testimony to the TSC ostensibly on the now dated May QIR that merely underlined ongoing Brexit dependent policy guidance and Eur/Gbp pivots 0.8950. Eur/Usd has pulled back further from its modest 1.1400+ advance, but finding support ahead of 1.1350 and decent technical levels a fraction below, such as the 200 DMA and WMA. Note also, large expiry interest from 1.1370-80 (3.2 bn) and 1.1385-90 (1.8 bn) are likely to cap the headline pair.

WTI and Brent futures have held onto most of their API-inspired gains (crude stocks -7.7mln vs. Exp. -2.5mln) with the former hovering close to the USD 59/bbl mark (having briefly breached the level to the upside) whilst the latter eyes USD 66/bbl. News-flow for the complex has been light thus far, albeit prices are also underpinned by supply-side disruptions after Exxon’s Beaumont Texas refinery (366K bpd) suffered multiple upsets due to a power loss, while Philadelphia Energy Solutions, the largest refinery in the US East coast (335K BPD), is expected to be closed down after a recent fire. Elsewhere, gold remains just above the USD 1400/oz after retreating form 6yr highs as the USD recoiled after Fed’s Bullard and Powell tempered expectations of a 50bps cut. Meanwhile, copper prices extend gains above USD 2.7/lb, now eyeing 2.75/lb as strikes in the world’s largest open-pit mine (Codelco’s Chuquicamata mine) continue, with the workers reportedly blocking roads leading to other mines. In other news, Philadelphia Energy Solutions is expected to close its oil refinery following the recent fire, while the refinery is the largest in the east coast of the US with a capacity of 335k bpd.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications 1.3%, prior -3.4%
  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. -0.2%, prior -2.1%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.1%, prior 0.0%
  • 8:30am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior -1.0%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior 0.0%
  • 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $71.8b deficit, prior $72.1b deficit
  • 8:30am: Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%, revised 0.5%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.45%, prior 0.8%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

For those stuck on a trading floor or maybe in a hotel room this morning, I’ll be on CNBC at 9.30am London time. I was on Bloomberg TV a couple of weeks back and my wife said that one of the twins ran up to the TV and said “Dada” when he saw me. Meanwhile my daughter told my wife it was boring and insisted she put “Paw Patrol” back on. So clearly the bid-offer as to when children turn from adoration to boredom towards their parents is 1.75-3.75 years in my family.

Markets were a little less boring yesterday than on Monday as rates gyrated again and risk sold off even with Fed Chair Powell not revealing too much new information in his speech last night. He seems intent on maintaining optionality ahead of the pivotal July Fed meeting. Yields nevertheless rose and equities fell, as St. Louis Fed President Bullard was not as dovish as expected in comments at a separate event. This seemed to be a spark for sentiment deteriorating, alongside some weaker data.

In Powell’s remarks, on the dovish side, he said that “investment by businesses has slowed,” that “crosscurrents have re-emerged,” and that inflation expectations have declined. On the other hand, he said that “solid fundamentals are supporting continued growth” and that he does not want to “overreact to any individual data point or short-term swing in sentiment.” So something for everyone there, and on the policy front he repeated his previous comments in favour of acting “as appropriate to maintain the expansion.” Asset prices initially reacted in a way consistent with a hawkish interpretation of his comments, with yields trading higher, equities falling, and the dollar strengthening, but the moves were minor and subsequently retraced.

What’s ended up being more impactful for markets were earlier comments from regional president Bullard. He is a voter this year and is considered the most dovish member of the committee, having dissented in favour of a rate cut at the June meeting. He spoke ahead of Powell and said that while the current environment seems like a good time for an “insurance rate cut,” the situation does not call for an immediate 50bps cut, saying such a move would be “overdone.” He went on to confirm that he is one of the FOMC members who favours 50bps of easing overall this year. Accordingly, this signals that he prefers to begin with a 25bps cut in July, which is less than currently discounted by the market. Two-year yields initially shot up +5.8bps after his remarks and the dollar strengthened +0.37%.

Equities had already been trading lower before the Fedspeak, after several economic releases fell short of expectations earlier in the morning (more below). The S&P 500 ultimately ended -0.95%, with over half of the losses coming after Bullard and Powell spoke. The NASDAQ and DOW ended -1.51% and -0.67%, respectively. The moves in rates proved less persistent, with 2-year treasuries ending flat (albeit before a +3.2bps move this morning) and 10-year yields down -2.9bps, but with 10 years closing below 2% for the first time since the US election day in 2016 – although they are back above that in Asia this morning. However, the shift in fed funds futures pricing proved durable, with the yield on the August contract closing +3.5bps higher, reflecting the reduced odds of a 50bps cut next month. The market reaction was indicative of slightly higher odds of a policy mistake, with 10-year inflation breakevens falling -3.8bps and the yield curve (2s10s) flattening -3.1bps.

In Asia overnight, the Nikkei (-0.59%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.23%) have followed Wall Street’s lead however the Hang Seng (+0.05%) and Kospi (-0.01%) are flattish. The recent rally for the Japanese yen which saw it hit the strongest level since April 2018 has abated a bit this morning, weakening -0.25%. The big mover overnight is oil though where WTI is up +2.09% following a report from the American Petroleum Institute indicating that US crude stockpiles fell by 7.55 million barrels last week.

Away from the Fedspeak, Bloomberg has run a story overnight suggesting that the US is willing to suspend the next round of tariffs on an additional $300bn of Chinese imports. The report notes that the decision is still under consideration and may be announced after a meeting between Trump and Xi this Saturday. Supposedly a call between Lighthizer and China Vice Premier Liu He was described as “productive” on Monday. Meanwhile, the US senate passed a resolution yesterday that “will consider all necessary measures” to limit risks of the US government or military using networks “compromised” by Huawei or ZTE equipment. The measure, which will move on for further votes, called for more pressure for allies to shun the companies’ network equipment. In other news, Special Counsel Robert Mueller has agreed to testify before two House committees on July 17 over his findings on Russia election interference and possible obstruction by President Trump.

Back to yesterday, where Powell’s remarks came as data from the Conference Board earlier in the day showed consumer confidence falling to 121.5 in June (vs 131.0 expected), down from May’s revised 131.3 reading and the lowest since September 2017. There weren’t many positives to find elsewhere in the data either, with the present situation falling to 162.6, the lowest since June last year, while the expectations reading fell to 94.1, the lowest since January. My colleague Torsten Slok sent round an interesting chart over the weekend (which we’ve recreated in the pdf today if you want to click) which shows the gap between the two being as wide as it is now is a good historical predictor of an upcoming recession.

Also of note from the Conference Board, the proportion saying that jobs were “hard to get” rose to 16.4%, the highest since November 2017, while the proportion saying that jobs were “plentiful” fell to 44.0%. The differential between the two, a closely-watched gauge of labour market sentiment, had its sharpest shift in over a decade. In previous cycles, this differential being stretched ended up being a good signal for the bottom in unemployment, so if maintained, it would certainly refocus the Fed’s attention on incoming labour data, especially the next jobs report due next Friday. Other US data proved no more promising, with new home sales for May falling to 626k (vs 684k expected), the Richmond Fed manufacturing index falling -2pts to 3, and retail sales figures getting revised lower.

Before Powell’s speech, equity markets in Europe closed lower, with the STOXX 600 -0.10% as the index lost ground for a third consecutive session. It was a similar picture elsewhere on the continent, with the DAX (-0.38%), the CAC 40 (-0.13%) and the FTSE MIB (-0.73%) all posting losses. Banks led the declines, with the STOXX Banks index -0.51% to close at its lowest level since December last year.

Rates had earlier rallied in Europe too, with bund yields falling to another record low yesterday of -0.333bps, down -2.4bps. French ten-year debt also closed in negative territory for their first time ever at -0.009% having shed -2.8bps, while Spanish and Portuguese yields fell -2.9bps and -4.7bps respectively to fresh lows. Meanwhile, the UK sold 30-year debt at an average yield of 1.421%, also a record low. However, in a sign that the ECB’s dovish pivot may already be wearing off on markets, and in a similar vein to the price action in the US fixed income market, five-year forward five-year inflation swaps fell -5.4 basis points to 1.214%, 12 basis points lower from Friday’s intraday high. A big and worrying shift.

As the war of words continued between the US and Iran, President Trump tweeted yesterday that “Iran leadership doesn’t understand the words “nice” or “compassion,” they never have. Sadly the thing they do understand is Strength and Power”. He also described their statement as “very ignorant and insulting”, and said that “Any attack by Iran on anything American will be me with great and overwhelming force.”

With rising geopolitical tensions, and ultra dovish central banks, it’s worth noting that gold reached a fresh six-year high yesterday of $1423/oz, though it did pare its gains after Bullard’s hawkish comments. It nevertheless has just had its biggest one-week increase in over three years. Another striking fact is that the ratio of gold and silver prices has risen to its highest level since 1993 at 92.6.

It’s not just gold that’s rising, with Bitcoin also at its highest level in over a year at $12,154 this morning, with a 203% rise since the start of April. We’re still some way from the peak above $19,000 reached in trading at the end of 2017, but the scale of the recent appreciation is striking. Obviously recent dovishness from central banks has seen investors look towards alternative currencies, but perhaps Facebook’s unveiling of its Libra currency has seen investors look again at cryptocurrencies with fresh eyes.

In terms of yesterday’s other data, sterling pared back gains against the dollar and the euro to close -0.42% weaker after the CBI’s survey of retail sales showed a reported balance of -42 in the year to June, the lowest since March 2009, with just 16% of retailers reporting higher sales volumes compared with last year. However it’s worth noting this has been a volatile series, and the figures will have been affected by last summer’s unseasonably hot weather. In France, the Insee’s business confidence remained at 106 for a third consecutive month in June, in line with expectations.

In other political news, the frontrunner to be the UK’s next Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, appeared to harden his rhetoric on Brexit yesterday, saying in an interview with talkRADIO that his commitment to leave the EU on the 31 October deadline was “Do or die. Come what may.” Later on, in a letter to his leadership rival, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, Johnson said that “I have been clear that, if I am elected leader, we will leave on 31 October with or without a deal.” Yesterday the Conservative Party also confirmed that the new leader would be announced on July 23rd in just under four weeks’ time.

Turning to the day ahead, datawise we’ve got consumer confidence figures from France and Germany, and this afternoon there’ll be May’s durable goods orders and wholesale inventories from the US. Here in the UK, Bank of England Governor Carney will be speaking to the Treasury Select Committee of MPs in Parliament, along with Deputy Governor Cunliffe and MPC members Tenreyro and Saunders. We’ll also have the ECB’s Mersch and San Francisco Fed President Daly making remarks. Finally, in the US this evening there’ll also be the first of two Democratic primary debates, in which the 20 participating candidates will be split over the next two nights.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.79 POINTS OR 0.19%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 36.00 POINTS OR 0.13%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 107.22 POINTS OR 0.51%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .27%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8758 /Oil UP TO 58.73 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.83 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8758 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8775 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3c China/Chinese affairs

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Italy

This is going to get the Italian populace angry..the ECB is telling the Italian Government that basically the Italian gold belongs to the central bank

(courtesy zerohedge)

ECB To Italian Government: Your Gold Is Ours

As the squabbling over Italy’s populist government’s plans to blow out its budget deficit to finance an agenda of tax cuts and social spending (including a ‘citizen’s income’ that’s essentially UBI-lite) crowded the headlines, the issue of who owns the 2,451 metric tons of gold reserves held by the Bank of Italy has been quietly ignored – at least, outside of Italy.

But that might be about to change.

On Tuesday, the ECB asked the League, the dominant party in Italy’s ruling coalition, to remove a reference to the Bank of Italy holding gold as an “exclusive title of deposit” according to Bloomberg.

Translation? If Italy is not allowed to have title to Italian gold, then Italy’s gold now belongs to the ECB

 

zerohedge@zerohedge

ECB ASKS LEAGUE TO REMOVE REFERENCE TO BANK OF ITALY HOLDING GOLD AS “EXCLUSIVE TITLE OF DEPOSIT”

Translation: Italy’s gold is now the ECB’s gold

Today’s escalation over Italy’s gold “title” comes two months after the WSJ reported that Italy’s ruling populists pushed ahead with efforts to seize control of the central bank and its gold reserves. Complaining that hundreds of thousands of small individual investors lost billions of dollars after several Italian banks failed in recent years, the current Italian government depicted the central bank as a symbol of a technocratic elite aloof from the needs of ordinary Italians.

“We need a change of course at the Bank of Italy if we think about what happened in the last years,” said Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio, leader of the 5 Star Movement.

Shortly thereafter, 5 Star lawmakers asked parliament to pass two draft laws.

One law would instruct the central bank’s owners, most of them private banks , to sell their shares to the Italian Treasury at prices from the 1930s. The other law would declare the Italian people to be the owners of the Bank of Italy’s reserve of 2451.8 metric tons of gold, worth around $102 billion at current prices.

“The gold belongs to the Italians, not to the bankers,” said Giorgia Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy, a far-right opposition party that supports both bills. “We are ready to battle everywhere in Italy and to bring Italians to the streets if necessary.”

So far there has been no fighting but if indeed Draghi just told Italy that its gold now belongs to the Frankfurt-based central bank we expect that to change (We discussed the proposed laws in more detail here).

Meanwhile, yesterday Italian BTP yields tumbled to their lowest level in a year as investors breathed a sigh of relief following reports that the European Commission would hold off on kick-starting an “excessive debt proceeding” – a process that would likely result in Italy becoming the first eurozone constituent to face a fine (potentially extending into the billions of euros) for violating the bloc’s stringent fiscal rules.

According to reports, the EU was holding off to give the Italian government more time to try and come up with a compromise. Meanwhile, both the League and the Five Star Movement have trudged ahead with a plan to have the Italian Treasury and Bank of Italy issue mini-BOTs – bonds that ostensibly would help the Italian government settle overdue payments, but which critics have denounced as a parallel currency. ECB President Mario Draghi denounced the plan as a step toward launching a parallel currency.

Cash

Now, just as gold prices are climbing to their highest levels in six years, the ECB is letting the Italian government know that it won’t sit by and allow the Bank of Italy to sell off its gold reserves to help right the country’s troubled finances.

Gold

Its just another example of the ECB ratcheting up the financial pressure on the Italian government, while asserting its control over the European Banking System. Late last year as the budget battle between Rome and Brussels flared, the ECB subtly threatened to sit back and watch the Italian financial system implode if Italian bond yields skyrocket.

Coming after the Italians gold reserves is yet another tactic by the ECB to bring the Italian populists to heel.

 END
Italy
Italy’s Salvini, totally against migrants entering his country has blocked a migrant vessel and has told Berlin and Amsterdam to take the 43 passengers.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Italy’s Salvini Calls Blocked Migrant Vessel A ‘Pirate Ship’; Tells Berlin And Amsterdam To Take Refugees

Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini called a NGO migrant transportation vessel a “pirate ship,” and suggested that Germany and The Netherlands should split the 43 passengers who were picked up off the coast of Libya, according to Newsweek.

“Does the European Union want to solve the Sea Watch problem? Easy,” Salvini wrote on Facebook, “Dutch ship, German NGO: Half of the immigrants in Amsterdam, the other half in Berlin. And seize the pirate ship.

A group of 10 migrants who were among the original contingent of those currently aboard Sea-Watch 3 were allowed to disembark at Lampedusa by Italy for medical reasons back on June 12. Three unaccompanied minors, the youngest of them just 12, remain onboard.

Salvini argues that his country has taken in too many of the migrants picked up by rescue boats, and that only a fraction are genuinely fleeing war. He had already once refused entry to Sea-Watch 3, only to have the decision overturned by the ECHR in May. Sea-Watch 3 landed at Lampedusa with the 65 migrants it had rescued from a rubber dinghy in the waters off Libya before the ship was impounded for three weeks. It was then released back to the NGO by Italian authorities. –Newsweek

According to the European Commission, 27,800 refugees have been resettled across Europe between 2015 and 2017 through various EU assistance programs. From 2018 to today, another 32,071 have been resettled – with a target of 50,000 by October of this year. The programs allow people to make the journey into Europe without making the perilous journey byland and sea, as tens of thousands of people have died after boarding ramshackle boats in an attempt to cross the Mediterranean.

Italy’s frustration over accepting a flood of migrants is undoubtedly responsible in large part for the election of Salvini – a hard-line nationalist who has taken aggressive measures to stem the tide of migrant boats docking in Italian ports. Salvini has repeatedly called on other European nations to shoulder the burden.

According to European Commission spokeswoman Tove Ernst, officials are watching the Sea Watch situation closely.

“For the Commission, this situation shows once again that predictable and sustainable solutions are urgently needed in the Mediterranean,” Ernst told Newsweek, adding that the Commission had encouraged EU member states to “agree on temporary arrangements following disembarkation.”

“We renew our call on all Member States to facilitate and speed up this crucial work,” Ernst added. “In the meantime, until such arrangements are in place, we also call on Member States to bear the humanitarian imperative in mind and contribute to a swift resolution. Whilst we welcome that Italy has proceeded with the evacuation of a number of persons from Sea-Watch 3 for medical reasons, a solution for the remaining people on board is still needed.”

Sea Watch is exhausted

Newsweek also reports that those aboard Sea-Watch 3 are “struggling in difficult conditions,” while the organization posted a video on Twitter Monday showing a man named Hermann, who says he escaped torture in a Libyan prison and that the group is exhausted.

“We cannot hold any longer. We are like in a prison because we are deprived of everything. We cannot do anything. We cannot even walk, go a bit further, because the boat is small and we are plenty. There is no space anymore,” he says.

Embedded video

Sea-Watch International@seawatch_intl

Seven days ago Hermann addressed the Europeans to call on their solidarity. So far the situation worsened for the 42 people still stuck on the 3. Having escaped the Libyan torture prisons, the EU deprives them of their basic human rights for 12 days now

Perhaps Hillary Clinton’s famous quote on killing Libyan leader Mummar Gaddafi is incomplete:

“We came, we saw, he died, and then a flood of migrants poured into Europe through a destabilized Libya.”

Ghadaffi, of course, promised to stop all of this for a mere €5 billion a year.

END

ITALY/ECB

Tom Luongo describes how the upcoming new MINi BOT will actually work and help save Italy.  Of course we have the 3 technocrats who are totally against the move.  Watch how Salvini will out- smart the triumvirate and get his wish on this new currency:

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

Europe Won’t Admit The Mini-BOTs Are Coming

Authored by Tom Luongo,

Italy is in serious trouble financially.This is virtually common knowledge at this point. What isn’t common knowledge is its Euroskeptic government led by Lega’s Matteo Salvini and Five Star Movement’s Luigi Di Maio are preparing an assault on the foundation of the European Union itself to save Italy.

And that assault comes with the most innocuous name. Mini-BOT. Mini-BOTs were originally the idea of former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis to assist Greece get out of the stranglehold placed on it by the euro

 

What is a mini-BOT? It is a small denomination (mini) Bill of Treasury (BOT) that can be issued by, in this case, the Italian government to act as a domestic currency for settling government debts, paying taxes, etc.

It would be a parallel currency which could circulate freely domestically at a discount to the euro which would work as a medium of exchange to reflect the reality of the Italian economy better than the euro does.

The euro’s value is dominated by Germany’s economy. And, in short, by being so the euro overvalues Italy’s labor pool and undervalues Germany’s. Gresham’s Law states under-valued money is hoarded and over-valued spent. In Italy the euro is hoarded. In Germany it is spent. This is why Germany runs such a massive trade surplus against the other members of the euro-zone.

Italy (and Greece, Portugal, Spain and others) need a currency that can circulate to properly support domestic trade.

By mispricing Italian labor via the euro it keeps the goods produced in Italy uncompetitive on the world market. Italy’s central bank can only issue euro-denominated debt which trades at rates far lower than it should, enhancing Germany’s position.

The Italian economy, like Greece’s, is also strangled by the cost of servicing its national debt denominated in euros. This keeps the demand for money within the economy high for debt servicing purposes and its circulation low.

Low circulation equals low trade and a sluggish economy. The EU’s budget rules favor paying off creditors first and tending to the Italian economy second. The ‘austerity’ imposed on euro-zone members, because of this mispricing of both the debt and the euro itself, becomes doubly harsh when the euro rises, sucking the life out of the debtor nation.

As the currency rises, the value of the debt rises versus the labor it is a claim against also rises. Then the country’s creditors need a bailout, which they get. The debt gets ‘restructured’ to put the debtor on an even-longer dated hamster wheel of repayment and some of it gets paid off in the form of national assets now trading at a fraction of its real value.

The mini-BOT seeks to reverse this process by allowing the Italian treasury to issue them as interest-bearing small bills which can be used to purchase goods and services in the Italian market but which will also be redeemable to pay for government services and taxes.

Doing this bypasses the euro completely and these will trade at a discount to the euro, thereby setting a proper exchange rate for Italy’s economy relative to Europe’s as a whole and increasing money velocity.

This is what Salvini and Di Maio are in favor of and what they will likely introduce soon.

And it is imperative that you understand what this means for the European Union. It is an existential threat to the current Germany-dominated political order. The main purpose of the euro was do to exactly what we have seen since its introduction, create a structural advantage for German industry through which Germany’s political class can dominate the EU itself. It was specifically designed to roll up the wealth of the continent in this way, bankrupt countries less competitive than Germany and keep them that way trapped within this single currency regime.

Laying aside my myriad and sundry libertarian and Austrian economics-based objections to this system of debt-based fiat currency, the current structure of the euro is even more monstrous than that of the individual currencies themselves. But, the Mini-BOT is a stop-gap measure on the road back to monetary and fiscal sanity. Not perfect, but the right first step.

Italy’s sovereignty-focused government, an outgrowth of the desperation of the Italian people, understand this dynamic at a deep level. It is why Salvini and Di Maio have attacked Brussels on the issue of the budget rules, tax cuts and infrastructure spending while soft-pedaling to the Italian people their radical agenda, which is to force a reorganization of power in Brussels or, failing that, take Italy out of the euro completely.

I have been arguing for over two years now since Matteo Salvini came onto the scene as a major player in Italian politics that his best path for success is to always and consistently put Brussels into the position of the bad guy.

Breach a budget rule here, detain some human traffickers there.

Each time the EU responds in the most predictable way, Salvini gains popularity and his arguments against Brussels’ unwillingness to listen gain credence.

And what scares Brussels the most is not what they say  – an increase in Italy’s debt, unsustainable spending, etc. Italy is nearly unsalvageable under a euro-only currency regime. No, what EU leadership fears the most is that this parallel domestic currency system of the mini-BOT actually works.

Because once it does it will show the rest of Europe just how corrupt and vindictive EU leadership is. As if Brexit talks haven’t exposed this fundamental truth to them already. And once that happens, the future of the EU itself comes into sincere doubt.

From what I understand, through anecdotal evidence, Salvini and Di Maio are going to move quickly on the mini-BOT, not just as a threat but as a real thing.

And their problems now lie with who I call the Troika of Technocrats who hold the positions to block their plans – President Sergei Mattarella, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and Finance Minister Giovanni Tria.

These are all the epitome of the Italian Swamp. They work for the old guard political order in Italy who, like most of the political establishment in the U.K., work for Brussels.

They will try to take down the Italian government before the mini-BOT becomes more than a discussion in parliament. Conte already threatened to resign over this issue. You’ll notice he didn’t do so.

And that to me is a huge tell. Conte bluffed Salvini and lost. Because with Di Maio in charge of Five Star and the poll numbers where they are, the Troika could all easily be removed if they take down the government (see my article linked above for the tactical situation).

If Salvini did it, it would hurt him. But, again, Salvini is way too sharp an operator to fall for that trap. So it will have to come from President Mattarella and Prime Minister Conte, if it comes at all.

They have to move quickly to get the Mini-BOT in place. Europe’s finances are unraveling quickly. The ECB is looking at lowering rates again once Mario Draghi exits the stage to leave the mess for his replacement.

Deutsche Bank is looking to spin off a small portion of its bad assets into a Bad Bank while Germany’s economy continues cratering and a hard Brexit is looking more and more likely.

None of these things are euro positive and none of them help the EU in its fight to keep Italy in the fold.

Italy will need the mini-BOT once this huge move into sovereign debt is over. It is rapidly becoming the most over-crowded trade in history with nearly $12 trillion in debt now carrying a negative return.

For now, Draghi and the rest of the would-be oligarchs in Brussels are in denial about what Salvini and Di Maio are planning. They won’t be once the power struggle for Italy’s government takes center stage in September when the budget is proposed, Brussels tries to impose fines and Salvini starts selling mini-BOTs.

You shouldn’t have to wonder how the markets are going to respond to that.

END

EUROPE

Massive heatwave strikes Europe with temperatures north of 100 degrees

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Hell Is Coming” Dangerous Heatwave Strikes Europe

Most of Europe will be blanketed by an oppressive heatwave as the continent suffers unreasonable warmth this week, with officials across the European Union announcing severe warnings against dehydration and heatstroke. The heat wave will be centered from Spain into France and Germany.

AccuWeather said a storm stalling over the Atlantic Ocean and high pressure over central and eastern Europe will push hot desert air from Africa northward across Europe. This setup has triggered dangerous heat wave warnings across western and central Europe for the remainder of the week.

From Madrid to Paris, Belgium, Frankfurt, and Berlin, these metropolitan areas are likely to see a multi-day heat wave, with daily temperatures around 90F-100F.

 

High humidity in some areas could make it feel like 116F, experts warned. “El infierno [hell] is coming,” tweeted meteorologist Silvia Laplana in Spain.

Embedded video

Silvia Laplana@slaplana_tve

El infierno is coming.

Officials in France have set up “cool rooms” in government buildings, opened community pools for extended hours, and installed water fountains across the city to prepare for the heat wave this week, reported The Guardian.

“I’m worried about people who are downplaying this, who are continuing to exercise as usual or stay out in the sun,” the health minister, Agnès Buzyn, said. “This affects all of us, nobody is a superman when it comes to dealing with the extreme heat we’re going to see on Thursday and Friday,” she told a press conference.

Emmanuel Demaël of Météo-France said the heat wave is so unprecedented that “we haven’t seen this since 1947.”

Record monthly and all-time highs are likely to be set across France this week, Demaël said, and overnight temperatures could stay above 70F.

In Italy, “the most intense heatwave in a decade” started on Monday, with local governments preparing their hospitals for a surge in heat-related illnesses. Highs of 99F to 104F are forecast across Rome, Florence, Bologna, Milan, and Turin, with several Italian cities expected to hit new record highs for June.

MeteoSwiss issued a “severe danger” warning across Switzerland as temperatures could rise to 99F from Tuesday until Thursday.

MeteoSchweiz@meteoschweiz

Warnung des Bundes: der höchsten Stufe 4 für die Region Basel und das Zentralwallis. Für gewisse Bevölkerungsgruppen können die hohen Temperaturen ein Gesundheitsrisiko darstellen, warnt das @BAG_OFSP_UFSP. wird voraussichtlich bis Sonntag andauern.

Last year’s heatwave led to increased mortality rates, lower crop yields, the shutdown of nuclear power plants, wildfires, water shortages, and power grid outages, could be a lot worse this year due to the unprecedented heat.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN

Iran offers proof that the USA drone strayed 4 miles into Iranian territory before it was shot down.

Judging from the lack of proof on the USA side of things, they are no doubt correct.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Iran Says US Drone Came Down Full 4 Miles Inside Its Territory

On Wednesday Iran’s military came forward with a new, detailed claim of the US drone’s location it shot down last Thursday, which nearly resulted in a major American attack on the country.

The head of the Iranian Armed Forces’ Geographical Organization, Brig. Gen. Majid Fakhri, was cited as saying by the semi-official Tasnim news agency that the drone wreckage was found four miles inside Iran’s territorial waters.

“After the shooting down of the drone, initial actions were taken and its location was identified,” Gen. Fakhri said, and added, “The drone was definitely in the waters of Iran as reports show that it was four miles or more than seven kilometers inside the Iranian territorial waters.”

 

RQ-4A Global Hawk file photo. Image source: Wiki Commonas

From the start the US has insisted the nearly quarter-billion dollar RQ-4A Global Hawk UAV was in international airspace, and as a joint Stars and Stripes-Bloomberg report notes, some of the basic facts are still being disputed, especially the drone’s flight path.

According to the Iranian military’s latest account of the events:

The IRGC said on Thursday that a US spy drone that violated the Iranian territorial airspace in the early hours of the day was shot down by the IRGC Aerospace Force’s air defense unit near the Kooh-e-Mobarak region in the southern province of Hormozgan.

The intruding drone was reportedly shot by Iran’s homegrown air defense missile system “Khordad-3rd”.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had said from the start it was responding to a violation of Iranian airspace, which it called a “red line”.

IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami had stated in the immediate aftermath of the drone downing that the act carried an “explicit, decisive and clear message that defenders of the Islamic Iran’s borders will show decisive and knockout reactions to aggression against this territory by any alien,” according to Tasnim.

“Borders are our redline, and any enemy violating these borders will not go back,” the elite IRGC chief underscored.

Javad Zarif

@JZarif

For more visual detail on the path, location, and point of impact of the U.S. military drone Iran shot down on Thursday, and of the waters over which it was flying, see these maps and coordinates.

There can be no doubt about where the vessel was when it was brought down.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Javad Zarif

@JZarif

LEGEND: blue=drone; yellow line=Iranian FIR; red line=Iranian territorial waters; ; green line=baseline internal waters; yellow dots=Iran radio warnings sent; red dot=point of impact.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Meanwhile, Russia has given official backing to Iran’s version of events, as Bloomberg reports, and lashed out at the White House’s sanctioning of Iran’s Supreme Leader.

“There is a very narrow window left because this is an absolutely insulting step for intergovernmental relations. But hope dies last,” a top Russian Foreign Ministry official in Moscow, Zamir Kabulov told reporters of Washington’s new sanctions on Khamenei.

“Iran will never be alone if, God forbid, the U.S. ever takes absolutely crazy and irresponsible actions against it,” he said. “Not only Russia, but many countries sympathize with Iran.”

end
UAE/IRAN
UAE officials state that there is not enough proof that Iran was behind the tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman
(courtesy zerohedge)

“Not Enough”: UAE Rejects US “Proof” Of Iran’s Role In Prior Tanker Attacks

Russia has given official backing to Iran’s version of events concerning last week’s drone shoot down which nearly sparked a major US-Iran war, as Bloomberg reports, and lashed out at the White House’s sanctioning of Iran’s Supreme Leader. “There is a very narrow window left because this is an absolutely insulting step for intergovernmental relations. But hope dies last,” a top Russian Foreign Ministry official in Moscow, Zamir Kabulov told reporters of Washington’s new sanctions on Khamenei.

“Iran will never be alone if, God forbid, the U.S. ever takes absolutely crazy and irresponsible actions against it,” he said. “Not only Russia, but many countries sympathize with Iran.”

Meanwhile Russian media is reporting exclusive quotes from the United Arab Emirates’ foreign minister which brings the entire series of events which led to the current crisis into question. Specifically the UAE has called into question unfounded US assertions that there’s “proof” that Iran was behind prior May tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman, which set the stage for the June 13 limpet mine incident and resulting blame game.

 

An Emirati coast guard vessel passes an oil tanker off the coast of Fujairah, United Arab Emirate. Image source: AP

Though last Thursday’s dramatic drone shoot down over the gulf now makes the tanker “limpet mine attack” incident seem like a distant memory, it was a series of tanker incidents in the gulf which hastened the US-Iran collision course in the Strait of Hormuz, given the US military build-up in response to the May as well as mid-June events.

“We cannot accuse any nation at the moment because we don’t have indisputable proof,”UAE foreign minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan said Wednesday during a joint media conference with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Moscow.

During that prior May incident, two Saudi tankers were reported attacked near the Strait of Hormuz, along with two other international vessels off the UAE port city of of Fujairah, in what the Saudis and their allies dubbed “sabotage operations”.

Appearing to indirectly respond to firm assertions out of Washington that none but Iran could have been responsible – and specifically the elite IRGC force – the UAE FM said further:

If other nations have more concrete information, I am sure the international community will gladly hear them out. But we have to be very serious and careful. It has to be reliable, scientifically confirmed information which would convince the international community.

According to Bloomberg, the lack of evidence didn’t stop national security advisor John Bolton from seizing the opportunity to put Tehran in the cross hairs:

While an investigation by the U.A.E., Norway and Saudi Arabia concluded that a “state actor” was most likely behind the incident in May, no nation was singled out. Still, U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton has said that Iran was almost certainly responsible.

The UAE minister on Wednesday further reiterated a call for a cooling of tensions in the gulf, saying: “The region is very turbulent and is very important for the world. We don’t want any escalation. What we want is stability and cooperation.”

As Deutsche Welle outlines in a recent report, security and insurance costs for maritime transport in the region are soaring: “The demand for private maritime security personnel has shot up since the attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman on June 13, as shippers step up efforts to protect their ships and keep global trade going.”

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

GLOBAL ECONOMICS

(courtesy Jeffery Snider//one of the smart guys on the planet)

The following commentary from Jeffery Snider is extremely important so please pay attention

The euro dollar market is a mega trillion dollar market and thus cannot be rigged in any way.  Libor is basically identical to the eurodollar market.

Euro dollars are basically dollars located outside of the USA and the euro dollar futures is basically a bet on the future rate of interest.  When you see an inverted Libor curve and a huge falling euro dollar curve, you know that they are sounding the alarm bells.

Pay no attention to the garbage spit out by Powell..the Eurodollar message speaks for itself

(Jefferey Snider)

 

LIBOR Now Inverted: “Rate-Cuts Aren’t Going To Be Insurance; They Are The Alarm Bells”

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investments,

Last week, for the first time since February 2008, the LIBOR curve inverted. The 3-month tenor has been on the move downward for some time. The 1-month rate has been gentler in its slope. Last Thursday, the two finally crossed. As unnatural as inversion in the UST curve or elsewhere, it’s another sign of imminentrate cuts.

I am somewhat reluctant to point out how it was on August 9, 2007, when this same thing happened for the first time last time around. It doesn’t mean we are repeating 2008, only that the market perceives substantial negative factors which are going to lead the Federal Reserve to begin reducing the interest it pays on its money alternatives soon.

Almost certainly at the end of next month.

 

The stock market view of all this is predictably one of near giddiness – more punchbowl! This is shared to a lesser extent by policymakers themselves. They are in public claiming that one or any rate cuts are nothing more than insurance for an otherwise strong economy to stay that way.

The problem with the two is that in many ways they rely on each other. It was, after all, record high share prices which encouraged Chairman Powell to be more hawkish in early 2018 after the uncertain start to his tenure. And then, a year later, it was the rebound in stocks following November and December’s plunge (the landmine) which kept the FOMC from outright panicking.

Just today, Mr. Powell said that one month ago things were looking up:

When the FOMC met at the start of May, tentative evidence suggested these cross-currents were moderating, and we saw no strong case for adjusting our policy rate.

What “tentative evidence?” The only markets which were suggesting an improvement were those share prices at the NYSE being set by the idea of a dovish Fed. Everyone then ignored what was otherwise a consistent downturn in the real markets. They quite conspicuously skipped right over April 17 even though it showed up in their own backyard (federal funds).

It’s not just that rate cuts are now certain; it’s more so the speed with which even these central bankers taking cues from equities are having their minds changed for them. Just last week, at the previous policy meeting, the Committee finally gave in to the idea of rate cuts – for next year.

The central bank predicts one or two rate cuts in its set of economic predictions, but not until 2020. Despite cautious wording in the post-meeting statement Wednesday, markets are still betting the Fed cuts, as soon as July.

We now count LIBOR’s inversion among the indications that these people have no idea what’s going on. Authorities are being pulled kicking and screaming in a direction they absolutely don’t want to go. As such, here’s the rest of Powell’s quote from today. It’s a beauty:

Since then [May], the picture has changed. The cross-currents have re-emerged, with apparent progress on trade turning to greater uncertainty and with incoming data raising renewed concerns about the strength of the global economy.

No, no, no. That’s not what happened at all, starting with trade. In fact, markets, those that matter, have been perfectly consistent for now nearly eight months. I always write that nothing goes in a straight line, and right now I’m being made to eat those words. This is about as straight a line as markets may ever traverse in either direction:

In more important terms, these prices and indications have been very consistent (about the landmine) in a way policymakers haven’t. Again, they are having their minds changed for them, and the speed with which it is taking place is itself a flashing indication of the gravity of the situation.

Official deterioration which is now priced in the LIBOR curve is the only thing anyone should pay attention to when it comes to these people. When you start out (late 2018) thinking robust economy and several rate hikes only then within weeks to shift to a Fed “pause” and then a few months later rate cuts but next year to a month further debating whether a 25 bps or 50 bps one to start with in July, things must be going sour very quickly.

After all, if the most optimistic group of optimists, the most likely to keep their heads firmly buried in the comfort of NYSE sand, has their position changed so radically in such a short period of time we have to be confronting a substantial downside.

Rate cuts are not going to be insurance; they are the alarm bells.

END

7. OIL ISSUES

Gasoline will soar as the USA’s largest east coast refinery in Philadelphia will close permanently due to extensive fire damage

(courtesy zerohedge

Gasoline Futures Soar As Largest East Coast Refinery Set To Permanently Close

RBOB Gasoline futures jumped overnight, accelerating their recent ascent ever since the explosion and massive inferon at the Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES) plant, following a Reuters report that the largest east coast refinery is expected to seek to permanently shut its oil refinery in the city after a massive fire caused substantial damage to the complex.

Shutting the refinery, the largest and oldest on the U.S. East Coast, would result in not only hundreds of lost jobs but also sharply higher gasoline prices as gasoline supplies are squeezed in the busiest, most densely populated corridor of the United States.

PES is expected to file a notice of intent with state and federal regulators as early as Wednesday, setting in motion the process of closing the refinery, the sources said.

The refinery, which could still change its plans, is also expected to begin layoffs of the 700 union workers at the plant as early as Wednesday, Reuters reported. The layoffs could include about half of the union workforce, with the remaining staff staying at the site until the investigation into the blast concludes.

As reported previously, the 335,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) complex, located in a densely populated area in the southern part of the city, erupted in flames in the early hours on Friday, in a series of explosions that could be heard miles away and which some compared to a meteor strike or a nuclear bomb going off.

Fire

The cause of the fire was still unknown as of Tuesday, though city fire officials said it started in a butane vat around 4 a.m. (0800 GMT). It destroyed a 30,000-bpd alkylation unit that uses hydrofluoric acid to process refined products. Had the acid caught fire, it could have resulted in a vapor cloud that can damage the skin, eyes and lungs of nearby residents.

Prior to the massive inferno, the refinery had suffered from years of financial struggles, forcing it to slash worker benefits and scale back capital projects to save cash. It went through a bankruptcy process last year to reduce its debt, but its difficulties continued as its cash on hand dwindled even after emerging from bankruptcy in August; some have speculated that cost cutting resulted in the structure becoming fragile and susceptible to accident.

After bankruptcy, Credit Suisse Asset Management and Bardin Hill became the controlling owners, with former primary owners Carlyle Group and Sunoco Logistics, an Energy Transfer subsidiary, holding a minority stake.

Last Friday’s blaze was the second in two weeks at the complex, spurring calls from Philadelphia’s mayor for a task force to look into both the cause and community outreach in the wake of the incidents. A spokesperson for Mayor Jim Kenney declined to comment on the potential closure of the plant.

That may be difficult as investigators on the scene are said to be dealing with unstable structures that need to be certified by engineers, slowing down the inquiry, city officials said. The investigation could ultimately take months or perhaps years. Additionally, the state Department of Environmental Protection said they have concerns about the integrity of storage tanks on site, the agency said on Tuesday. The U.S. Chemical Safety Board is also investigating the incident, according to Reuters.

While none of this will make much news outside of Philly, what will impact all East Coast drivers is that gasoline futures rose as much as 5.4% on Wednesday to $1.9787 a gallon, the highest since May 23. The front month price was at $1.945 early on Wednesday.

Futures are up 8.9% since Thursday’s close.

NY Gasoline prices have surged back into a premium over US Gulf Gasoline…

All of which will drag, as always with a lag, the price of gas at the pump notably higher…

The rally in U.S. gasoline futures has pushed U.S. gasoline prices above European and Asian markets, raising the prospects for US imports. According to Matthew Chew, oil analyst at IHS Markit, “chances are that (the wider price spread) could open up the arbs between U.S. Gulf/Europe and [the East Coast] PADD 1.”

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

ZIMBABWE

We have been following the plight of Zimbabwe for many years.  This once proud nation and a large gold producer (over 100 tonnes per year) is in shambles.  We have witnessed the country move into hyperinflation where goods disappeared and the country issued is 100 trillion zim dollar which bought you a dozen eggs.  The the country abandoned the zim dollar and went on a dollar standard.

Now things are going from bad to worse for this country as they now outlawed the withdrawal of any foreign currency.  Stay tuned shortly to another round of hot hyperinflation

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

“Our Dollars Have Been Stolen” – Money Is Not Safe In Zimbabwe

Amid its chaotic moves yesterday to ban the use of foreign currencies (USDollar and South African Rand primarily) and the reintroduction of a ‘ZimDollar’, Zimbabwean officials buried the lead a little..

President’s Mnangagwa full statement (released on his official Twitter account) about the reintroduction of the Zimbabwean Dollar:

It has always been clear that for our economy to truly take off, we need our own currency. While the multicurrency regime helped to stabilise the economy, it did not give us control of monetary policy and left us at the mercy of US Dollar pricing which has been a root cause of inflation.

When the majority earn in the local currency, but goods are priced in US dollars, the outcome will only ever be a two tiered economy: Stable and affordable prices for those with access to dollars, while the majority face an unrealistically high cost of living. This is unfair and unsustainable.

Before we could have our own currency, it was however important that key fundamentals were first put in place. Central to this was regaining control of our budget, through decreased spending, increased revenues and, for the first time in recent memory, budget surpluses. Under the careful guidance of Professor Ncube, this has been achieved.

As a result, yesterday we passed a Statutory Instrument to abolish the use of multiple currencies, and make the Zimbabwe dollar the sole legal tender with immediate effect. This is a key component of our transitional stabilisation programme, and an important step in restoring normalcy to our economy.

Government and the RBZ are taking the necessary steps to ensure this move is a success,through increasing the flow of forex into the interbank market while also making forex available to individuals and small businesses through bureau de changes.

On a day to day basis, this will change very little. People will still be paid in RTGS dollar and bond notes, and goods and services will be priced in the same currency. Those holding Nostro accounts will still have access to those accounts in the currency they held.

The only way forward is to reform so that we build a country in which all have the opportunity to prosper. We cannot be fearful of change, but must boldly embrace it as we move forward. The conditions are in place for Zimbabwe to have its own currency. Let us all work together, as one people, to make it a success.

But quietly alongside thisThe Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) has issued a directive banning cash withdrawals from all Foreign Currency (FCA) Nostro Accounts following the promulgation of Statutory Instrument 142 of 2019, which reintroduced the local Zimbabwe Dollar and scrapped the multi-currency regime. Nostros/FCA holders will have to liquidate their balances to be usable in Zimbabwe.

As Pindula News notes, what this essentially means is that if one earns USD, deposited into their Nostro account, they can’t draw the cash but will have to get it in Zim Dollar using that day’s interbank rate.

The ZimDollar (black-market RTGS$ rate) has been falling into the news and accelerated beyond…

And Zimbabweans are fuming.

As TechZim’s Tinashe Nyahasha writes, I never bought into the whole FCA nostro nonsense. This is one of the times however, that I hate to be proved right. The directive sent to banks by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe today the 25th of June 2019 is your confirmation that you should never trust what the Zimbabwean government, the central bank and your bank manager tell you.

Liar liar

Does anyone remember how the minister of finance, Mthuli Ncube and the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Governor, John Mangudya promised that money in your FCA Nostro account was safe and would not be touched? They lied.

Here is what the RBZ is now saying about your FCA account:

Funds in all these accounts listed in Table 1 above will retain their foreign currency status and shall continue to be utilised for the settlement of international transactions. In cases where the holder of such an account intends to settle domestic transactions, they shall be required to liquidate their foreign currency account balances to the interbank on a willing seller willing buyer basis.

These are the people that go around the world trying to convince investors that their money is safe in Zimbabwe. What’s disappointing is that these guys did not just decide to raid our wallets like this, they knew right at the time that they were making these promises that the end game was to take your money.

Signals to this effect were all over the show. I even wrote then that you were better off keeping your money under the mattress, the nostro FCA’s were just bad news.

Not the first time

This whole thing happened to us less than three years ago when the Bond Note was introduced. The promise then was that you could always get your US Dollars on demand if you didn’t want to be given Bond Notes at the bank.

Before we knew it, we could never get US Dollars. If we wanted to withdraw that currency we had to deposit into all kinds of prepaid cards. Hey but we had deposited USD in the regular accounts at the beginning?

Beware of the current lie

Right now this is the current lie being told by the powers that be to finish you off and commit you into poverty:

In order to encourage and facilitate the flow of foreign currency, diaspora remittances shall continue to be received in foreign currency. The recipients shall have the option to receive remittances in cash or sell their remittances on a willing seller willing buyer basis to Bureaux de Change and Authorised Dealers or deposit into Individual Nostro FCA.

Very soon, money sent to you by your relatives who have braved the big bad diaspora will be snatched too. They will say the only option open to you is to get a Zim Dollar equivalence of your money. We all know that the interbank rate is not the true equivalence of your money.

*  *  *

We reiterate our suggestion from yesterday – get long wheelbarrows…

END

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1365 UP .0013 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.69 UP 0.515 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2684   DOWN   0.0007  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3152 DOWN .0026 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 2 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1365 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 5.79 POINTS OR 0.19% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 36.00 POINTS OR 0.13%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,27%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN  

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 36.00 POINTS OR 0.13%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.79 POINTS OR 0.19%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 27% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 107.22  POINTS OR 0.51%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1406.10

silver:$15.28-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.02% !!! UP 3 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.54 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 96.28 UP 9 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.48% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.14%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.39%//UP 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.14 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 175 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.30% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.44% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1384  UP     .0016 or 16 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.66 UP .487 OR YEN DOWN 49  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2698 UP .0007 POUND UP 7  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 63 basis points to 1.3114

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY 6.8800    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8800  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7699 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.14%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.03 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.55 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.09 DOWN 5  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 6.04  OR 0.08%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 16.88 POINTS OR .14%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 13.85 POINTS 0.25%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 2.40 POINTS or 0.03%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 71.27 POINTS OR 0.34%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 59.42 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 66.48 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    62.96  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.08 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 8 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.30 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  59.21//

 

 

BRENT :  66.27

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.05…   VERY DEADLY//

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.57..VERY DEADLY/

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1371 ( UP 3   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.82 UP .641 (YEN DOWN 64 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.19 UP 5 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2691 UP 1  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7770

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.02   DOWN 0.14 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 14 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3116 UP 61 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8800  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8800 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.30%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN 11,40 POINTS OR 0.04%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 25.26 POINTS OR 0.32%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  16.17 CLOSED DOWN .11

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.311%//libor dropping like a stone

 

 

 

FROM 2.343

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY//

Bitcoin Soars Most Since 2017 As Dollar Drops, Bond Yields Pop

Will Powell or Trump or Xi or Putin or Rouhani be ‘Leeroy Johnson’?

 

In an effort not to bury the lead, we note that cryptocurrency’s rebirth accelerated dramatically today with Bitcoin spiking above $13,500 intraday (up over $2000 in the last 24 hours – Bitcoin’s biggest daily dollar rise since Dec 2017)…

Tracking the 2017 trajectory very well…

In the 8 days since Facebook unveiled Libra, Bitcoin is up almost 50%

Helped by the extreme dovishness of The ECB, The Fed, and various Fed-Speakers since. However, perhaps it is as simple as this chart…

Bitcoin is protection from the idiocy of policymakers… rather like gold…

Gold’s climb to a six-year high may reflect its status as “a positive yielding asset” relative to much of the world’s debt, according to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group LLC.

As Tom Luongo noted earlier, this run up towards the end of this month into the end of Q2 may be morphing quickly into a FOMO rally that could see a blow-off top in the near future.

Markets that go vertical without really pausing to take a breather will always correct down. Hard.

When that happens given the expansion of Bitcoin’s dominance of the crypto market by market cap percentage in the past few weeks, I would expect to see some strong rotation into both cash and alt coins just clearing major technical hurdles on any correction.

And just so we’re clear as to what’s happening here. The mother of all safe haven trades is emerging. Trade Wars, Near Hot Ones, tariffs, sanctions, popular uprisings and political instability are all on the table.

While we’re all focused on whatever short-term idiocy comes out of Donald Trump’s mouth to secure his control over the Overton Window, we should be asking ourselves why the ECB is going looking at even more negative rates, LIBOR has inverted alongside Eurodollar and the U.S. Treasury market and stocks are at all-time highs.

The markets aren’t irrational. Our perceptions of what is driving this behavior is. Safe haven assets change with the times.

And when you step back from the insanity of the fiscal and political situation in the U.S. and Europe, the fall-out from their instability on emerging markets and the potential for major shifts in the geopolitical game board does it really seem all that odd that a simple electronic proxy for gold with thin supply, high trust and low holding risk would become a darling of the risk averse?

I don’t.

Read more here…

*  *  *

Chinese stocks dipped at the open, scrambled back and then did nothing for the rest of the day…

 

European stocks ended lower – despite the Mnuchin pop…

 

US equities were juiced overnight by Mnuchin’s trade deal comments then gave it all back as humans realized the machines had misunderstood his grammar – “deal WAS 90% done” is different from “deal IS 90% done.”

 

Trannies and Nasdaq outperformed while Small Caps, Dow, and S&P were weakest…another weak close…

 

Today’s strength was a rebound in cyclicals as recent outperformance of defensives was dumped…

 

VIX extended its recent gains, decoupling from stocks…

 

Treasury yields spiked notably higher today (front-end underperforming)…

 

10Y yields worked their way back up to a key resistance level from FOMC day…with a deja vu nature to the move…

 

The Dollar dipped today but remains in a tight range for the 3rd day since the FOMC day dump…

 

Yuan spiked on Mnuchin’s trade deal comments then gave it all back…

 

Crude is the week’s winner for now (thanks to a massive crude draw) with silver lagging…

 

Gold dropped most in 3 weeks today… back to 2-day lows…

 

While Gold traded down in USD today, in Canadian Loonies, gold is at a record high…

And in case you wondered, as Zimbabwe goes full hyper-inflate-tard again by banning foreign currency withdrawals and abandoning the USDollar, gold in RTGS$ (ZimDollars) is exploding…

Just how it is supposed to.

 

Finally, the following are the dates of the last all-time high for various assets (h/t bullmarkets.co)…

  • Nikkei – 1989
  • Oil – 2008
  • Gold – 2011
  • Silver – 2011
  • Corn – 2012
  • Bitcoin – Dec 2017
  • DAX – Jan 2018
  • Russell 2K – Aug 2018
  • NASDAQ 100 – Apr 2019

Buy-And-Hold?

 

end

 

i) Market trading/

A complete farce!!

In Absurd Fiasco, Entire Market Spike Was Due To A CNBC Grammatical Mistake

The farce that is this “market” just took a whole new turn for the surreal.

As we reported earlier, the reason why stocks surged just after 5am EDT is because of a CNBC headline, according to which the US Treasury Secretary said that a US-China trade deal “is” – present tense – 90% complete: a clear indication that a trade deal with China is once again a possibility.

This was quickly propagated by Bloomberg…

  • U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY STEVE MNUCHIN SAYS U.S.-CHINA TRADE DEAL IS 90% COMPLETE

… which triggered a flurry of algo buying.

Doubling down, CNBC also tweeted as much saying in a (since deleted) tweet that:

“Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says a U.S.-China trade deal is “about 90% of the way there.” https://t.co/3Q0wvJKKxD pic.twitter.com/of6yH5y3rs”

The problem: CNBC made a huge grammatical mistake, because instead of saying “is”, Mnuchin was actually using the past tense, and what he really said – for those who listened to the video – is that “we were about 90% of the way’ on China trade deal.

Oops.

CNBC also promptly deleted its tweet which said the deal “is” 90% completed, and the current on CNBC headline now says “Mnuchin: ‘We were about 90% of the way’ on China trade deal and there’s a ‘path to complete this.”

The deleted tweet was also revised:

Embedded video

CNBC International

@CNBCi

“We were about 90% of the way” on a China trade deal and there’s a “path to complete this,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says. https://cnb.cx/2IL7EMc

So basically Mnuchin said absolutely nothing new, and not only that, he did not provide any optimism that a deal was coming, but as we said earlier, was merely recapping what was already known.

But what is most absurd about this entire incident is that nobody who was buying futures – and global stocks – actually listened to the Mnuchin clip in which he clearly used the past tense, and a second just as absurd outcome is that after stocks surged at 5am on the patently wrong headline meant to boost optimism in a deal…

… they have yet to drop back to where they were before the Mnuchin fake CNBC news hit.

end

 

MARKET TRADING/LATE MORNING

Yuan, Stocks Erase Mnuchin Ramp

The overnight ramp in yuan and US equity futures – on the back of Mnuchin’s comments – has been entirely erased as the algos were taught that tenses matter

a deal that WAS 90% done is different from a deal that IS 90% done…

 

 

 

LATE AFTERNOON

 

ii)Market data/

Another indicator of problems in the USA economy

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Durable Goods Orders Plunge Most In 3 Years

With manufacturing signals across the globe collapsing, expectations were for a modest drop in US Durable Goods Orders in May, however, the 1.3% MoM drop was far larger than expected and not helped by a notable downward revision in April.

Worst still, on a YoY basis, durable goods orders plunged 3.3% – the most since July 2016’s post-Brexit panic.

Under the hood there was some silver linings to cling to with Capital Goods Shipments (ex-Air) rising 0.7% MoM (well above the 0.1% expected rise).

And a proxy for business investment – non-military capital goods orders excluding aircraft – rose 0.4% after a 1% decline in the prior month.

As Bloomberg notes, the pickup in equipment orders may ease concerns that unpredictable trade policy is weighing on manufacturers and complicating business investment. Stronger demand would offer more of a tailwind to second-quarter economic growth after a downbeat April figure.

But in this brave new world, bad news is better than good to keep that 50bps bogey on the table.

 

end
This was a surprise.  Many were expecting the trade deficit to shrink in May. Instead it widened by 5.1% as both imports and exports rose.  This will be a negative entry point for 2nd quarter GDP
(courtesy zerohedge)

U.S. trade deficit in goods widens 5.1% to $74.5 billion in May

 

June 26, 2019 8:52 a.m. ET

(courtesy Market Watch)

Higher deficit will be a drag on second-quarter growth

MarketWatch

The numbers: An early look at U.S. trade patterns in May points to wider-than-expected trade deficit. The advance trade deficit in goods widened 5.1% to $74.5 billion, according to the Commerce Department. Economists polled by MarketWatch has expected the deficit to narrow to $70.7 billion.

The government’s advance report on wholesale inventories showed a 0.4% rise in May. And advanced retail inventories increased 0.5%.

What happened: Both imports and exports rose in May, but imports rose at a faster pace. The gain in imports was led by autos and industrial supplies. Exports were led by food and consumer goods.

Big picture: The surprisingly larger May trade deficit could be a drag on second-quarter GDP. A larger deficit is a negative for U.S. economic growth.

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Bellwether Fed ex describes how bad is the world trade growth and they say it is due to the trade war

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

FedEx CEO Says Trade War Like “Mike Tyson Punch” To Company’s Bottom Line

Despite reporting earnings that were stronger than the Street had expected (albeit after slashing guidance on more than one occasion and excluding several “one time” expenses), FedEx shares tumbled in after-hours trade last night after the logistics belwether and the company that is arguably the most adversely impacted by the burgeoning trade war warned about the fallout from the trade war and its impact on the company’s 2020 bottom line.

CFO Alan Graf warned during the company’s post-earnings call Tuesday that “our fiscal 2020 performance is being negatively affected by continued weakness in global trade and industrial production, especially at FedEx Express.”

Those comments, combined with lowered guidance on its capex expenditures, weighed on the company’s shares after last night’s report, though they bounced back on Wednesday and held their gains even after the rest of the market erased this morning’s Mnuchin bump (a bump that proved to investors once and for all that using the correct verb tense can make all the difference).

But when it came his turn to speak, FedEx CEO Fred Smith offered one of the most creative, and most memorable, analogies for how the Trump administration’s protectionist bent has impacted multinationals that are dependent on growth in trade for their own top-line growth.

Global

The global economic uncertainty unleashed by President Trump’s protectionist policies and Brexit has upended the best-laid plans of many companies, not just FedEx. But when it comes to Smith’s company, unless Trump finds a swift resolution with the Chinese, the trade war could have a punishing impact on FedEx’s bottom line.

Smith compared the impact of the trade war to a punch to the face from boxer Mike Tyson (presumably, a Tyson in his prime).

It reminds me a bit about that old adage of Mike Tyson that everybody has got a plan until they get hit in the mouth,” Smith said. “So clearly, we’ve been very disappointed over the last few years with the assumptions that we made on the growth in international trade, particularly with the Trump administration.”

FedEx  declined to project fiscal 2020 earnings results for its FedEx Express business segment on Tuesday, saying the trade row created “significant uncertainty” for the business unit.

“The United States policy since 1934 with Roosevelt and Secretary of State Cordell Hull was to expand international trade,” Smith said. “And now we have a huge dispute where the United States is basically become protectionist defined as, ‘I’ll make everything I need in my own borders. I don’t need to import things and quite frankly don’t particularly need to export them.'”

Though Smith didn’t place 100% of the blame on Trump, saying he didn’t agree with China’s mercantilist inclinations.

“We don’t agree with the Chinese position on trade either – and have been very vocal about that – which is mercantilist,” he added.

We imagine this won’t be the last time we hear a CEO use a creative analogy to describe how the trade war is impacting their company’s bottom line – after all, the headlines are a welcome distraction from the impact of shrinking export growth on earnings guidance.

Speaking of Tyson’s infamous knockout punch, here’s a compilation of the legendary boxer’s “Greatest Hits”.

end

SWAMP STORIES

This ought to be fun:  Mueller is subpoenaed and will testify before two house committees in July. Cannot wait until the Republicans cross examine him

(courtesy zeroedge)

 

Mueller Subpoenaed, Will Testify Before Two House Committees In July

Robert Mueller will testify before the House Judiciary and House Intelligence committees, after both panels subpoenaed the former special counsel, according to a Tuesday evening press release.

“Pursuant to subpoenas issued by the House Judiciary and House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence tonight, Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller III has agreed to testify before both committees on July 17 in open session,” reads the statement.

News of Mueller’s testimony is a sharp reversal from a rare public statement in May, during which he said “The report is my testimony,” referring to the Russia report his office put out after nearly two years of investigation.

In April, Attorney General William Barr released a redacted version of the report which found no evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia, yet declined to render a prosecutorial recommendation on whether Trump had obstructed the investigation.

Meanwhile, despite an almost unredacted version of the Mueller report made available to Congress, Democratic lawmakers have insisted on access to the full report.

end

Trump is rightly angry that Mueller illegally scrubbed evidence from Strzok and Page’s phones

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Slams Mueller For ‘Illegally Deleting Evidence’ On Wiped Phones

President Trump on Wednesday claimed that special counsel Robert Mueller ‘illegally terminated’ texts between “The two lovers, the two pathetic lovers, those two lovebirds” Peter Strzok and Lisa Page. 

The two former FBI employees at the center of the agency’s early Trump investigation sent thousands of text messages to each other which revealed their extreme animus for the then-candidate Trump.

“Robert Mueller, they worked for him … they had texts back and forth … Mueller terminated them illegally. He terminated the emails, he terminated all of the stuff between Strzok and Page … He terminated them. They’re gone. That’s illegal. That’s a crime,” Trump said.

While Trump did not provide evidence for his claim, he was likely referring to a December report by the DOJ’s Office of the Inspector General (OIG) which found that after he was fired from the Mueller probe, the special counsel’s office allowed Strzok’s phone to be wiped clean by the FBI before it was reassigned to another agent

It strains credulity to imagine that the special counsel’s office would ‘accidentally’ allow Strzok’s iPhone to be reformatted after he was fired for exchanging biased text messages on it.

Page’s phone was similarly scrubbed.

Separately, the OIG recovered approximately 19,000 Strzok-Page texts from their Galaxy S5 phones. The messages span a “gap” in text messages between December 15, 2016 and May 17, 2017.

OIG digital forensic examiners used forensic tools to recover thousands of text messages from these devices, including many outside the period of collection tool failure (December 15, 20 I 6 to May 17, 2017) and many that Strzok and Page had with persons other than each other. Approximately 9,311 text messages that were sent or received during the period of collection tool failure were recovered from Strzok’s S5 phone, of which approximately 8,358 were sent to or received from PageApproximately 10,760 text messages that were sent or received during the period of collection tool failure were recovered from Page’s S5 phone, of which approximately 9,717 were sent to or received from Strzok. Thus, many of the text messages recovered from Strzok’s S5 were also recovered from Page’s S5. However, some of the Strzok-Page text messages were only recovered from Strzok’s phone while others were only recovered from Page’s phone. -OIG Report

In August 2016, Strzok and Page discussed an “insurance policy” in the event that Trump won the election which many believe to be in reference to operation Crossfire Hurricane – the DOJ’s counterintelligence investigation into Trump and his campaign.

I want to believe the path you threw out for consideration in Andy’s office – that there’s no way he [Trump] gets elected – but I’m afraid we can’t take that risk.” wrote Strzok, adding “It’s like a life insurance policy in the unlikely event you die before you’re 40.”

In the home stretch of the 2016 US election, Strzok is fuming at Trump – texting Page: ” I am riled up. Trump is a f*cking idiot, is unable to provide a coherent answer.” He then texts “I CAN’T PULL AWAY, WHAT THE F*CK HAPPENED TO OUR COUNTRY (redacted)??!?!,” to which Page replies “I don’t know. But we’ll get it back.”

No wonder Strzok’s iPhone was allowed to be scrubbed!

Mueller will testify in front of two House committees on July 17 in an open setting.

end

Looks like the Democrats are going to get a shot at looking at Trump’s financesw

(courtesy zerohedge)

Democrats Given Green Light To Dig Into Trump’s Finances

A Washington DC Judge has denied President Trump’s efforts to halt a lawsuit brought by 201 Congressional Democrats who have sued to require that Trump seek approval from lawmakers before accepting financial benefits from foreign governments, according to Bloomberg.

US District Judge Emmet Sullivan (who is also presiding over former national security adviser Michael Flynn’s case) issued a pair of orders on Tuesday. The first order denied Trump’s request to halt the lawsuit in order to immediately appeal Sullivan’s previous refusals to dismiss the case.

The second order allows lawmakers to begin collecting financial evidence to support their case

 

The legislators assert Trump’s receipt of benefits through his far-flung business holdings — including his luxury hotel just blocks from the White House — violates a U.S. constitutional provision barring American presidents from accepting so-called emoluments from foreign governments without the prior permission of Congress. The Democrats previously told the court they want to look at the president’s finances and revenue sources.

The president’s lawyers say money flows into his businesses legally. The judge has not yet made a final determination on that issue. –Bloomberg

Sullivan, who ruled that Trump’s lawyers did not meet their burden of showing that a mid-case appeal would speed up resolution of the case, noted that the Democratic lawmakers told him they could quickly gather evidence.

 

end

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

From yesterday’s King Report: Bank stocks… are not happy with the Fed’s indication of lower rates.  The DJTA and Russell 2000 are unhappy with the economy… Our personal view is that Fed officials have to be very worried about gold’s 10% rallyover the past three weeks.  The gold stock ETF is up 27% since May 28.  So, Fed officials might be less dovish than expected.  Perhaps, Kaplan’s unexpected hawkish comments are an indication of concern about gold… Traders expect dovish Fed comments.

Fed officials were not only less dovish than expected, Powell was hawkish (and finally sniped at DJT) and Bullard said, “I think 50 basis points would be overdone… but I would be willing to go 25…

Powell: “Congress chose to insulate the Fed this way because it had seen the damage that often arises when policy bends to short-term political interests…”

Fed Chair Powell Weighs Whether Cut Will Be Needed as Risks Loom

He made clear that the institution considers itself independent from the White House and President Trump… Mr. Powell said the case for a rate cut has strengthened somewhat given that economic “crosscurrents have re-emerged, with apparent progress on trade turning to greater uncertainty and with incoming data raising renewed concerns about the strength of the global economy.”

    But he stopped short of saying a cut was guaranteed, noting that the Fed would continue to watch economic events unfold and would avoid reacting to short-term issues…

    “The economy had solid momentum, but now it’s pedaling against some pretty significant headwinds,” Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said in an interview with The New York Times on Tuesday. “Let’s watch the next six weeks and see if the data reverse,”…

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/25/business/economy/jerome-powell-speech-fed.html

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said a 25 basis points rate cut would be enough “insurance” to protect against an expected slowdown https://t.co/S4H63ogJ37

The market expected Fed officials to ordain that a 50bp cut was a fait accompli.  Instead, Powell inferred that even a 25bp cut is not certain; Bullard retreated and NY Fed Prez Williams spoke about diversity.

The drastic Fed tone change felled stocks and caused gold to rescind its rally on Tuesday.  The drastic change in Fed officials’ comments most likely is due to gold’s surge.  What else could force Fed officials to once again change their tune and invite mocking criticism to their egregious vacillations?  The economy cannot change nearly as quickly as Fed officials’ weather vane routine.

@zerohedge: ECB ASKS LEAGUE TO REMOVE REFERENCE TO BANK OF ITALY HOLDING GOLD AS “EXCLUSIVE TITLE OF DEPOSIT”  Translation: Italy’s gold is now the ECB’s gold

Despite a passel of negative news, ESUs experienced their standard rally into the NYSE open.  However, when the NYSE opened, real sellers were waiting for the conditioned traders.  ESUs tumbled during the first hour of trading.

WaPo: Chinese bank involved in probe on North Korean sanctions and money laundering faces financial ‘death penalty’ – A U.S. judge has found three large Chinese banks in contempt for refusing to comply with subpoenas in an investigation into North Korean sanctions violations. The order triggers for the first time a provision that could cut off one of China’s largest banks from the U.S. financial system at the demand of the U.S. attorney general or treasury secretary…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/legal-issues/chinese-bank-involved-in-probe-on-north-korean-sanctions-and-money-laundering-faces-financial-death-penalty/2019/06/22/0ccef3ba-81be-11e9-bce7-40b4105f7ca0_story.html

“It Would Be an Earthquake” – Three Chinese Banks Tumble after US Threatens to Cut Them Off from SWIFT    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-25/chinese-banks-tumble-after-us-threatens-cut-them-us-financial-system

@OANN: Iran’s Foreign Ministry says new sanctions that target Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other officials close any channel for diplomacy with the U.S. “forever.”

@realDonaldTrump: Iran leadership doesn’t understand the words “nice” or “compassion,” they never have. Sadly, the thing they do understand is Strength and Power, and the USA is by far the most powerful Military Force in the world, with 1.5 Trillion Dollars invested over the last two years alone… The U.S. has not forgottenIran’s use of IED’s & EFP’s (bombs), which killed 2000 Americans, and wounded many more… Iran’s very ignorant and insulting statement, put out today, only shows that they do not understand reality. Any attack by Iran on anything American will be met with great and overwhelming force. In some areas, overwhelming will mean obliteration. No more John Kerry & Obama!

US New Home Sales plunged 7.8% to 626k, led by a 35.9% decline in the west, in May.  +1.6% (684k) was expected.  April was revised to -3.7% from -6.9%.

New home sales sank 7.8% in May, despite a big drop in mortgage rates

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/25/new-home-sales-sank-7point8percent-in-may-despite-a-big-drop-in-mortgage-rates.html

The new home sales report should alarm and frighten the rate-cutting maestros at the Fed.

The Confidence Board’s June Consumer Confidence tanked to 121.5 from a downwardly revised 131.3 (from 134.1).  131 was expected.  This is the biggest miss in confidence since June 2010.

U.S. consumer confidence falls to 121.5 in June, vs. 131.1 expected

A decreasing number of Americans think business conditions will improve six months from now, dropping to 18.1% of those surveyed to 21.4%… https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/25/us-consumer-confidence-june-2019.html

The Philadelphia Fed June Nonmanufacturing Activity Index fell to 8.2 from 17.3 in May.

The firm level business activity index plunged to 12.2 in June versus 28.1 in May.  However, wages and benefits jumped to 43.6 versus 30.9 in May.

The U.S. is willing to suspend the next round of tariffs on Chinese imports while Beijing and Washington prepare to resume trade negotiations  https://t.co/vgmbnULxos

FedEx warns of ‘macroeconomic weakness and trade uncertainty’ affecting business

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fedex-reports-4q-2019-results-201544138.html

FedEx is unable to forecast the fiscal 2020 year-end MTM retirement plan accounting adjustment. As a result, the company is unable to provide a fiscal 2020 earnings per share or effective tax rate (ETR) outlook on a GAAP basis…  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fedex-corp-reports-fourth-quarter-200500573.html

The DoJ nailed Merrill for manipulating precious metal markets ‘thousands of times over seven years’.

Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. Enters into Corporate Resolution and Agrees to Pay $25 Million in Connection with Deceptive Trading Practices Executed on U.S. Commodities Markets

Beginning by at least 2008 and continuing through 2014, precious metals traders employed by MLCI schemed to deceive other market participants by injecting materially false and misleading information into the precious metals futures market.  They did so by placing fraudulent orders for precious metals futures contracts that, at the time the traders placed the orders, they intended to cancel before execution.  In doing so, the traders intended to “spoof” or manipulate the market by creating the false impression of increased supply or demand and, in turn, to fraudulently induce other market participants to buy and to sell futures contracts at quantities, prices and times that they otherwise likely would not have done so.  Over the relevant period, thetraders placed thousands of fraudulent orders

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/merrill-lynch-commodities-inc-enters-corporate-resolution-and-agrees-pay-25-million

The stock market plunge in Q4 induced Powell to change course on Fed rate hikes and its balance sheet runoff.  The ensuing stock market surge plus inflating oil and gasoline then induced Powell to go hawkish to start May.  By the latter days of May, the credit markets were in turmoil and stocks were breaking down.  So, Powell and his ilk went into extremely dovish mode.  The S&P 500 Index soared to a new high; but gold rallied 12% and gold stocks jumped about 30% in three weeks.  So, Powell, Bullard and others have reversed again.  From Easy Al to Bernanke to Yellen to Powell, Fed CEOs have debased the credibility of the Fed.  They have also greatly diminished the Fed’s efficacy.

Thus, traders should be exiting risk while they wait for the results of the DJT-Xi summit this week and further Fed ‘guidance’.  We’ve harped for the past several sessions that traders should carefully monitor gold and bank stocks.  That’s our story and we’re sticking to it until facts and behavior change.

Comey Hid ‘Clinton Emails’ Binder in His Office Safe and Had Hillary’s Backup Email Device

The FBI officially released the DOJ’s “Inventory” Receipt for Property documents listing the stuff Comey had in his office safe. Look below at Inventory Item #17, which originally said “TOP SECRET,” then that marking was crossed out. In its final form, it says: ‘White Binder – CLINTON EMAILS’…

   We know from Edward Snowden’s disclosures that the NSA captures all email traffic within the United States. I am sure the NSA had all of Clinton’s emails even the ones she had deleted…

    Meanwhile, the Datto backup device was storing Clinton emails that the Clintons did not want stored, and Platte River Networks did NOT thoroughly encrypt Clinton’s emails on the server, as the Clintons demanded, according to an FBI report…

https://bigleaguepolitics.com/comey-hid-clinton-emails-binder-in-his-office-safe-and-had-hillarys-backup-email-device/

WaPo piles on: Biden, once the poorest senator, has made millions since leaving the vice presidency

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/once-the-poorest-senator-middle-class-joe-biden-has-reaped-millions-in-income-since-leaving-the-vice-presidency/2019/06/25/931458a8-938d-11e9-b570-6416efdc0803_story.html

FBI Moves to Protect Obama – Court Rules FBI Can Keep 302 Interview Notes With Obama From His Senate-Selling Scandal Secret    https://t.co/TIhWGP0c3u

OAN’s @EmeraldRobinson: What’s going on with Trump’s immigration policy? Is Tom Homan the new “border czar” or not? Is he in charge of @DHSMcAleenan or not? What about Ken Cucinelli? What happened to Kobach? Why has the President’s signature issue become the “Who’s on first” gag?

Sen. Warren celebrates birthday at Planned Parenthood, sparks backlash  https://t.co/7WnQuG2Sie

Washington owes Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch an apology

In our constitutional order, a vague law is no law at all.” Those words began one of the most important decisions of this Supreme Court term, in United States v. Davis. In a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court sided with a habitual offender in striking down an ambiguous provision allowing enhanced penalties for a “crime of violence.”  The author of that sweeping decision in favor of a criminal defendant’s rights was Justice Neil Gorsuch…he has emerged as one of the most consistent, courageous and principled voices on the Supreme Court…

    He has departed repeatedly from the right of the Supreme Court to do what he considers to be the right thing. He remains a conservative justice but, like predecessor Antonin Scalia, he has shown a sense of his own “true north” judicial compass. In doing so, he has often made both the left and right of the Supreme Court seem shallow and predictable in their rigidity…

     While Kavanaugh also has broken from the right of the Court on occasion, he has continued his record of consistently siding with prosecutors and police. In his dissent, Kavanaugh advanced the logic that worried some of us before his confirmation; in the face of a detailed, dispassionate analysis by Gorsuch of the statutory language,Kavanaugh’s dissent responded at times with what seemed a string of empty platitudes… – liberal-leaning law professor Jonathan Turley

https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/450163-washington-owes-supreme-court-justice-neil-gorsuch-an-apology

Right-leaning Law prof @JoshMBlackman: Gorsuch: “In our constitutional order, a vague law is no law at all.”  Kavanaugh: “The Court usually reads statutes with a presumption of rationality and a presumption of constitutionality.”

OAN’s @JackPosobiec: There is a compromise to be had between left and right to solve the student debt crisis – Start a student debt relief program – Fund it with college endowments  – Get the Dept of Education out of the student loan business

    Raise your hand if you aren’t surprised government subsidies led to massive tuition inflation bc you understand basic economics.

Well that about does it for tonight

I will see you on THURSDAY night

H

One comment

  1. James Damberger · · Reply

    Hi Harvey. Can you give us an analysis of the falling gold lending rate. It has dropped significantly over the last 2 months. Thanks.

    Like

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