GOLD: $1398.45 DOWN $19.15 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)
Silver: $14.98 DOWN 32 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)//
Closing access prices:
Gold : $1399.40
JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)
today RECEIVING 9/21
CONTRACT: JULY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,417.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/03/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 07/08/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
661 C JP MORGAN 9
737 C ADVANTAGE 21 11
905 C ADM 1
TOTAL: 21 21
MONTH TO DATE: 700
NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR JULY CONTRACT: 21 NOTICE(S) FOR 2,100 OZ (0.0653 tonnes)
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR: 700 NOTICES FOR 7000 OZ (2.177 TONNES)
2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 10,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month: 3195 for 16,975,000 oz
Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE : $ n/a
Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ n/a
Let us have a look at the data for today
IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 943 CONTRACTS FROM 221,224 UP TO 222,167 WITH THE 10 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.
TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018 RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.
WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S. WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,
0 FOR JULY. 0 FOR AUGUST, 1693 FOR SEPT, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 1693 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1693 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1693 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 8.465 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANYING:
1.THE 10 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND
2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:
JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);
FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ
FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ
FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION OZ S
FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.
FOR NOV: A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING AND
21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.
5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.
2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:
27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.
3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.
18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.
2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//
20.600 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR JULY
WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING AT THE SILVER COMEX LAST NIGHT..AND ZERO SPREADING ACCUMULATION.
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JULY:
5201 CONTRACTS (FOR 4 TRADING DAY TOTAL 5201 CONTRACTS) OR 26.005 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1300 CONTRACTS OR 6.500 MILLION OZ/DAY)
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY: 26.005 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 3.71% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)* JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.
ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 1183,50 MILLION OZ.
JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS: 217.455. MILLION OZ
FEB 2019 TOTALS: 147.4 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 207.835 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 182.87 MILLION OZ.
MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 136.55 MILLION OZ
JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 265.38 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 943, WITH THE 10 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1683 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .
TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 2636 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
i.e 1693 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 943 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 10 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.30 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!!
In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.111 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 159% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 2NOTICE(S) FOR 10,000OZ OF SILVER
IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.
AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.
ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:
- HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018 (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ ) FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT: A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ JANUARY AT 5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019: 2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/ APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY: 18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 20.600 MILLION OZ
- HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018: 244,196 CONTRACTS, WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
- HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
- RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ
AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)
WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING: WE WILL WITNESS THE MORPHING OF OUR SPREADERS OUT OF SILVER AND INTO GOLD AS THE JULY MONTH PROCEEDS INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.
FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.
AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:
“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCHED TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.
HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.
AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR 1262 CONTRACTS, TO 604,687 DESPITE THE strong $12.50 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY// /THE SPREADING ACCUMULATION WILL NOW COMMENCE FOR GOLD….
THIS IS THE 8TH OUT OF THE LAST 9 TRADING SESSIONS THAT THE PRELIMINARY OI CONTRACTED GREATER THAN 6,000 CONTRACTS FROM THE FINAL. TODAY IT IS OVER 8000 AND AS SUCH A MASSIVE FRAUD
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 6564 CONTRACTS:
APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS, AUGUST 2019: 6564 CONTRACTS, DEC> 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 604,687. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5302 CONTRACTS: 1262 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 6564 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN OF 5302 CONTRACTS OR 530,200 OZ OR 16.49 TONNES. YESTERDAY WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF $12.50 IN GOLD TRADING.…AND WITH THAT STRONG GAIN IN PRICE, WE HAD A GOOD GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 16.49 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY : 26244 CONTRACTS OR 2,624,400 oz OR 81.621 TONNES (4 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 2179 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 4 TRADING DAY IN TONNES: 81.62 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 81.621/3550 x 100% TONNES =2.81% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE: 3,001.49 TONNES
JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; 531.20 TONNES
FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 344.36 TONNES
MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 497.16 TONNES
APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE: 456.10 TONNES
MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE: 449.10 TONNES
JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE: 642.22 TONNES
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
Result: A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 1262 DESPITE THE STRONG PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK ON YESTERDAY($12.500) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6564 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6564 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 5302 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
6564 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 1262 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 16.49 TONNES). ..AND THIS GOOD INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $12.50 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE WILL COMMENCE WITH SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN GOLD AS THE MONTH PROCEEDS/
we had: 21 notice(s) filed upon for 2100 oz of gold at the comex.
With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50 TODAY//
NO CHANGE SIN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.44 TONNES
TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD. IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY
WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY:
A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2,341 MILLION OZ?????????
/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.482 MILLION OZ.
OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 943 CONTRACTS from 221,224 UP TO 222,167 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 1 1/3 YEARS AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER AND STOPPED THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS IN GOLD
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
FOR JULY: 0 CONTRACTS FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 1693 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1693 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1168 CONTRACTS TO THE 1693 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 2636 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 14.18 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.. A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., 7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. 21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY, 27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL 18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 20.600 MILLION OZ STANDING SO FAR.
RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 10 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1693 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.
BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL
2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.86 POINTS OR 0.50% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 76.72 POINTS OR 0.27% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 204.22 POINTS OR 0.25%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .50%
/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.8694 /Oil UP TO 57.82 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.36 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8694 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8759 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP RAISED RATES TO 25%
3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3 China/Chinese affairs
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
6. GLOBAL ISSUES
7. OIL ISSUES
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. PHYSICAL MARKETS
10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)
a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA
iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES
Let us head over to the comex:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1262 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 604,687 DESPITE THE STRONG GAIN OF $12.50 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6564 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:
FOR AUGUST; 6564 CONTRACTS: DEC: 0 AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 6564 CONTRACTS.
THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST 48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 5302 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6564 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A FAIR SIZED 1262 COMEX CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 5302 CONTRACTS OR 530,200 OZ OR 16.43TONNES.
We are now in the NON active contract month of JULY and here the open interest stands at 88 CONTRACTS as we GAINED 7 contracts. We had 18 notices filed ON WEDNESDAY yesterday so we surprisingly gained another 25 contracts or 2500 oz of gold that will stand for delivery as there appears to be some gold at the comex as they will now try their luck on finding the fast vanishing supplies of physical gold over here. We usually witness queue jumping in silver immediately after first day notice but not gold. That changed this first week as we gained considerably on each and every trading day. The next big active month for deliverable gold is August and here the OI FELL by a strong 5032 contracts UP to 419,593. The next contract month of September gained 48 contracts up to 107. The next active delivery month after Sept the October contract month and here it gained 486 contracts up to 14,348.
TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:
WE HAD 21 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 2100 OZ. (0.06 TONNES)
And now for the wild silver comex results.
Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 943 CONTRACTS FROM 221,224 UP TO 222,167(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 10 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//WEDNESDAY.
WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY. HERE WE HAVE 727 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 15 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 21 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 5 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 25,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL ATTEMPT TO STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. AFTER JULY WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST AND HERE WE GAINED 29 CONTRACTS UP TO 1116. THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 102 CONTRACTS UP TO 161,018 CONTRACTS.
TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:
We, today, had 2 notice(s) filed for 10,000 OZ for the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver
Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 496,456 CONTRACTS
CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 569,408 contracts
INITIAL standings for JULY/GOLD
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz||XX oz|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz||
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz||
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz||
|No of oz served (contracts) today||
|No of oz to be served (notices)||
|Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month||
|Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month||NIL oz|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month||xxx oz|
we had XX dealer entry:
We had XX kilobar entries
total dealer deposits: XX oz
total dealer withdrawals: XXoz
we had 0XXdeposit into the customer account
i) Into JPMorgan: nXoz
ii) Into Everybody else: XXX oz
total gold deposits: XX oz
very little gold arrives from outside/ NO amount arrived today
we had XX gold withdrawal from the customer account:
total gold withdrawals; XXX oz
FOR THE JULY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 21 contract(s) of which 11 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (700) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY. (88 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (21x 100 oz per contract) equals 74,200 OZ OR 2.308 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JULY
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY/2019 contract month:
No of notices served (700 x 100 oz) + (88)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (21 x 100 oz )which equals 76,700 oz standing OR 2.3856 TONNES in this active delivery month of JUNE.
We GAINED 25 contracts or an additional 2500 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. Somebody was in need of physical gold badly on this side of the pond…VERY UNUSUAL TO SEE QUEUE JUMPING THIS EARLY IN THE UP FRONT JULY CONTRACT MONTH.
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! WE HAVE ONLY 10.043 TONNES OF REGISTERED ( GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 2.3856 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.
IN THE LAST 32 MONTHS 117 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
And now for silver
AND NOW THE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory||NIL oz|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory||
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory||
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory||
|No of oz served today (contracts)||
|No of oz to be served (notices)||
|Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)||3395 contracts
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month||NIL oz|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month|
we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things
total dealer deposits: XX oz
total dealer withdrawals: XXX oz
we had 1 deposits into the customer account
into JPMorgan: nil oz
ii)into EVERYBODY ELSE XXXX oz
*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.
JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million
total customer deposits today: XXX oz
we had 0 adjustments :
total dealer silver: 87.119 million
total dealer + customer silver: 304.604 million oz
The total number of notices filed today for the JULY 2019. contract month is represented by 2 contract(s) FOR 10,000 oz
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3395x 5,000 oz = 16,975,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY. (727) and the number of notices served upon today (2 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JULY/2019 contract month: 3395 notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY( 14727 number of notices served upon today (2)x 5000 oz equals 20,600,000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month.
WE GAINED 5 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 25,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS. IT SEEMS THAT SOMEBODY WAS BADLY IN NEED OF PHYSICAL SILVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND JOINING GOLD!.
TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:
We, today, had 2 notice(s) filed for 10,000 OZ for the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver
TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 179,985 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation
CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 236,657 CONTRACTS..(we no doubt had considerable spreading activity as they are now starting to accumulate in silver)
YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 236,657 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 1,118 million OZ 169%% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!
COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
NPV for Sprott
1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -0.34% June 27/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.10% to NAV (JUNE 27/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -0.34%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/
3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):
NAV 13.77 TRADING 13.23/DISCOUNT 3.96
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/
JULY 5TH/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INV RESTS AT 798.44 TONNES
JULY 3// WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.44
JULY 2. WITH GOLD UP $18.90 A HUGE “PAPER” DEPOSIT OF 6.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES
JULY 1: WITH GOLD DOWN $24.70 A HUGE “PAPER GOLD” WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 794.04 TONNES
JUNE 28/WITH GOLD UP $.90 TODAY: ANOTHER 2.05 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD REMOVED AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN ATTACKING GOLD AT THE COMEX/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.80 TONNES
JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.61 TONNES
JUNE 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.61 TONNES
JUNE 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.30 (AND WAY UP BEFORE THE BANKERS WHACKED) WE WITNESSED ANOTHER 1.95 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 801.98 TONNES
JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.00 A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 34.93 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.03 TONNES
JUNE 21/WITH GOLD UP $ 2.90, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT: 764.10 TONNES
June 20/WITH GOLD UP $47.95, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES
JUNE 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONES
JUNE 18/JUNE 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES
JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES
JUNE 14/ WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES
june 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.70 TONNES
JUNE 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES
JUNE 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.65 CENTS TODAY: A TINY CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .24 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES
JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.42 TONNES
june 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES
jUNE 6/WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES
JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $6.00 TODAY/STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES
JUNE 4/WITH GOLD UP 0.85 TODAY: A MONSTROUS PAPER GAIN OF 16.44 TONNES/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.65 TONNES
JUNE 3/WITH GOLD UP $17.50 TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE, A DEPOSIT OF 2.35 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//
MAY 31/WITH GOLD UP $17.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES
MAY 30: WI6H GOLD UP $6.40 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES
MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES
MAY 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES
MAY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.81 TONNES
MAY 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY: A STRANGE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FORM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738,81 TONNES
MAY 22//WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: WE HAD A GOOD 1.52 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 739.69 TONNES
JULY 5/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 798.44 tonnes
*IN LAST 620 TRADING DAYS: 136.32 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 520 TRADING DAYS: A NET 29.36 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.
Now the SLV Inventory/
JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS WE STRANGELY HAD A HUGE INVENTORY GAIN OF 2,234 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.492 MILLION OZ
JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS A HUGE INCREASE IN INVENTORY..INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.151 MILLION OZ
JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.330 MILLION OZ//
JULY 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 936,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 323.330 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 28/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.575 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.394 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 20/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 18 WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ
JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP XXX CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 13/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 12/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.413 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 11/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 12 CENTS, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 9 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZE DEPOSIT OF 630,087 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 5/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.396 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.434 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 4/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 3/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//
MAY 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 422,000 OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ/
May 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ///
MAY 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//
MAY 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//
MAY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ/
MAY 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//
MAY 22/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 311.616 MILLION OZ
MAY 21: WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//
MAY 20/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ
Inventory 328.492 MILLION OZ
LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:
6 Month MM GOFO 2.08/ and libor 6 month duration 2.22
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:
G0LD LENDING RATE: + .14
12 Month MM GOFO
LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.16
GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE
GOLD LENDING RATE = +.19
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST
i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8694/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1
//OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8759 /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 14.86 POINTS OR 0.50%
HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 204.22 POINTS OR 0.95%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 204.22 POINTS OR 0.95%
3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX/
USA dollar index UP TO 96.66/Euro RISES TO 1.1307
3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.16/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107/51/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED
3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning
3e WTI:: 57.82 and Brent: 65/36
3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.30%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.12% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.42%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.52: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM
3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.55
3k Gold at $1393.90 silver at: 14.32 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50
3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 51/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.37
3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 65 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.51 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9824 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1108 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017
3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to –0.30%
The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.
4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.03% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.54%
5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.
6. TURKISH LIRA: UP TO 5.8080..
Futures Slide Ahead Of Payrolls, Europe Red After “Devastating” German New Orders
Amid non-existent volumes as many US traders are taking an extended holiday weekend, this week’s rally fizzled with global markets and US equity futures drifting into the red ahead of today’s U.S. jobs data which could either boost or temper market expectations about aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve.
European bourses suffered with the pan-region STOXX 600 slipping 0.3%, dragged lower by the basic resource and industrial goods & services sectors which both fell more than 1.5%. A sharp drop in China iron ore futures hit miners. Tech shares retreated 0.9% after Samsung’s dour forecast showed the impact of U.S.-China trade war on global chip and smartphone markets, sending Infineon, STMicroelectronics and Siltronic as much as 1.5% lower.
Losses accelerated after the latest German data showed Europe’s largest economy was still stuck in pre-recessionary limbo with industrial orders falling far more than expected in May, and a warning from the economy ministry this sector of Europe’s largest economy was likely to remain weak in the coming months.
“Devastating new orders data just undermined any hopes for an industrial rebound. We are starting to lose our optimism,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany. “Combined with the weakest June performance of the labour market since 2002 and disappointing retail sales, today’s new orders wrap up a week to forget for the German economy. The fear factor is back.”
Europe’s losses followed gains in Asia, where MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan was set for its fifth straight weekly rise. S&P futures and Shanghai Composite index both hovered near 3,000-mark in muted post-holiday trade. Asian stocks traded sideways, heading for the fifth week of gains, their longest winning streak since January 2018, as traders assessed India’s federal budget and awaited U.S. payroll data. Consumer staples companies rallied, countering declines in material firms. Markets in the region were mixed, with Australia climbing and India dropping. The Topix gauge closed 0.2% higher, capping its best week since January, as electronics makers offered the biggest boost. The Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.2%, driven by Kweichow Moutai and China Life Insurance. Chinese equities should post gains this quarter despite uncertainty over trade disputes, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts and fund managers.
The S&P BSE Sensex Index fell 1% as a lack of stimulus from the government in its annual spending plan unveiled Friday and additional tax on high income spooked investors. Meanwhile, jewelers tumbled after the government announced a proposal to raise import tax on gold to 12.5% from 10%. Shares of Indian shadow lenders rose after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman proposed to provide a partial guarantee to state-run banks with exposure to pooled assets of financially-sound non-bank lenders.
A rebound in emerging-market stocks and currencies paused as ahead of the June payrolls report. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell on Friday, still heading for its sixth week of gains, the longest winning streak in five months. The currency gauge was little changed for the week, with currencies in Latin America largely outperforming those in eastern Europe and Asia. The risk premium on sovereign dollar bonds narrowed.
“Following the strong performance more recently, markets are looking for what next,” said Trieu Pham, a London-based strategist at ING Bank NV. “U.S. job market data will certainly be closely watched in view of the July 31 Fed meeting. Lastly, a bit of caution as well as the trade truce is holding but the matter is far from resolved.”
In rates, Treasury futures dipped, lifting the 10-year yield fractionally to 1.958% after hitting the lowest since November 2016 at 1.941%; Aussie curve little changed. JGB futures edge higher, supported by buying in ultra long-end, despite strongest Japanese spending pace in four years. Germany’s 10-year government bund yield, fell to minus 0.4% and breached the European Central Bank’s deposit rate for the first time – a level analysts say acts as a psychological barrier even though shorter-dated German bond yields trade well below it.
World stocks and bonds have rallied at a feverish pace since the start of June on hopes global central banks will keep policy easy to support growth. A ceasefire in the protracted Sino-U.S. trade war has also bolstered sentiment.
All eyes were now on U.S. non-farm payrolls – which we previewed earlier – due later in the day, and which are expected to have jumped by 160,000 in June compared with 75,000 in May.
“This will be the last employment report before the FOMC meeting at the end of this month for which markets are pricing in 33 basis points of cuts as of this morning,” Deutsche Bank’s Craig Nicol wrote in a note to clients. Fed futures are fully pricing in a 25-basis-point cut when the Fed meets on July 30-31. Investors also see a 25% chance of a 50-basis-point reduction.
“What today’s report says about the trends in hiring and income growth could meaningfully impact market expectations so expect there to be just as much focus on hours and wages as the headline payrolls reading.”
In FX, the easing bund yields dragged the euro lower to $1.1273 with the common currency on track for the biggest weekly drop in three weeks. The Bloomberg dollar index beat its Group-of-10 peers amid thin flows ahead of Friday’s U.S. labor data, which could signal whether the Fed will cut interest rates this month; it was on track for a ~1% gain this week. Against the Japanese yen the dollar gained 0.2% to 108.04.
Worries about the health of the global economy also weighed on commodity markets. Oil prices eased with Brent crude futures , the international benchmark for oil prices, off 30 cents at $63.00 per barrel while U.S. crude slipped 85 cents to $56.49. Crude markets shrugging off tensions around Iran and a decision by OPEC and its allies to extend a supply cut deal until next year was an ominous sign to market watchers.
“When bullish signals fail to lift the oil market’s spirits, we should be very concerned this downtrend could run much further than expected,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at Vanguard Markets.
Bitcoin rebounded from a loss on Thursday, while China iron ore futures racked up sharp losses after hitting a record on Wednesday. China’s most-active September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell as much as 4.9% to 838 yuan ($121.89) a tonne.
- S&P 500 futures down 0.09% to 2,997.50
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 391.97
- MXAP down 0.04% to 162.18
- MXAPJ down 0.08% to 532.39
- Nikkei up 0.2% to 21,746.38
- Topix up 0.2% to 1,592.58
- Hang Seng Index down 0.07% to 28,774.83
- Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,011.06
- Sensex down 0.6% to 39,666.60
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 6,751.28
- Kospi up 0.09% to 2,110.59
- German 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to -0.396%
- Euro down 0.2% to $1.1265
- Brent Futures up 0.1% to $63.38/bbl
- Italian 10Y yield rose 9.0 bps to 1.322%
- Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to 0.253%
- Brent Futures up 0.1% to $63.38/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,414.14
- U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 96.91
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- China continues to stress that the U.S. must remove all the tariffs placed on Chinese goods as a condition for reaching a trade deal. On Friday, an influential blog connected to state media said the talks will “go backward again” without that step, echoing the line from Ministry of Commerce’s weekly briefing on Thursday
- German factory orders slumped in May as trade uncertainty continued to weigh on global manufacturers and drive a slowdown in Europe’s largest economy. The continued gloom is pushing a growing number of economists to predict the ECB will add more monetary stimulus as soon as this month
- Deutsche Bank AG’s job cuts across the U.S. will probably go far beyond equities and interest-rate derivatives trading, which have been marked as major targets, according to people with knowledge of the matter
- Investors are so keen to find a safe home for their cash that they’re paying the German government to take it, and that makes the nation’s reluctance to borrow increasingly puzzling. Yields are now below zero for 85% of German sovereign debt, right out to bonds that don’t mature for another 20 years
- Boris Johnson, the front-runner to replace Theresa May as British prime minister, said delivering Brexit would be key to keeping the U.K. together, just hours after May warned her successor not to put the union at risk with a no-deal Brexit
Asian equity markets were mixed following the non-existent lead from Wall Street where markets were shut due to Independence Day and with the region tentative heading into the key US Non-Farm Payrolls data. ASX 200 (+0.5%) was positive with the index led higher by strength in financials and real estate after APRA effectively relaxed guidance on mortgage lending in which banks will be able to review and set their own minimum rate floor in assessing serviceability, although gains were capped for most the session by weakness in the commodity-related sectors. Elsewhere, Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) was choppy as it failed to find inspiration from the highest growth in Household Spending since 2015, due to a humdrum tone in the currency and the KOSPI (+0.1%) traded cautious amid losses in index heavyweight Samsung Electronics which beat expectations in its preliminary earnings for Q2 but still showed oper. profit slipped by 56% Y/Y. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (U/C) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) were initially subdued after further PBoC inaction resulted to a net weekly liquidity drain of CNY 340bln, while there were also recent mixed comments from China’s MOFCOM which confirmed US-China trade teams are in communication but also suggested that tariffs must be removed for a trade deal to occur. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally higher and briefly reclaimed the 154.00 level with mild support seen amid the lacklustre risk tone in Japan and BoJ’s presence in the market for JPY 555bln of JGBs.
Top Asian News
- India to Narrow Budget Gap Target, Sell First Global Bond
- India Sees Economy Rebounding This Year as Growth Risks Balanced
- India to Inject Another $10.2 Billion Into State-Run Banks
- Call Center Nation to Lose Shine on Duterte’s Manila Ecozone Ban
European indices are little changed/modestly into negative territory this morning [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%] as bourses lack any firm direction due to the US market holiday and the relatively quiet newsflow ahead of the US Jobs Report later on in the session. Sectors are largely negative, with some underperformance seen in tech names as Samsung Electronics reported earnings last night where Q2 operating profit fell by 56% Y/Y. Separately, mining names are suffering on the pullback in iron ore prices and amidst reports that Chinese regulators are to examine the drivers behind the metal’s recent price surge; as such, Rio Tinto (-2.4%) and Anglo American (-2.6%) are towards the bottom of the Stoxx 600. Elsewhere, at the bottom of the Stoxx 600 are Hexagon (-14.0%) after the Co. stated that they have been impacted due to a China slowdown in July, stemming from the ongoing US-China trade dispute. Finally, Osram Licht (+1.8%) are firmer this morning after confirming that they support the Bain & Carlyle takeover for EUR 35.00 per share.
Top European News
- Brevan Howard Main Hedge Fund Posts Best First Half in a Decade
- German Factory Orders Slump as Europe Economic Slowdown Worsens
- South African Stocks Fall as Iron Ore Producers, Aspen Slump
- Euro Hopeful Croatia Sets Sights on Adoption as Early as 2023
- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait Make Breakthrough in Neutral Zone Oil Talks
In FX, the Dollar is edging higher ahead of US jobs data, albeit not independently or directly as G10 and EM rivals weaken further or retreat in advance of the big release. The DXY has inched back up towards 97.000 and into a marginally firmer range, but may be capped by resistance seen between the big figure and 97.010 awaiting the latest BLS report and return of US markets after yesterday’s market holiday.
- CHF/NZD – The major underperformers, though not by much, as the Franc and Kiwi hover around 0.9875 and 0.6670 respectively vs the Greenback and both still within recent trading parameters awaiting further direction from the aforementioned NFP metrics.
- JPY/EUR/SEK – The Yen has slipped back to around 108.00 from safe-haven highs circa 107.50 earlier this week, but may derive some support from decent option expiry interest at the 108.00 strike (1 bn), or heavy supply said to be stacked from 108.50 if the US labour data is strong. Meanwhile, the single currency is testing key downside technical levels in wake of yet more poor German data, like converged DMAs and a Fib in the 1.1259-62 region, but outpacing the Swedish Krona amidst a sharp slide in Hexagon shares (due to the IT firm flagging weakness in China). Indeed, Eur/Sek has rebounded firmly from sub-10.5000 levels towards 10.5500.
- AUD/CAD/GBP – The Aussie is holding up better than its G10 peers and forming base above 0.7000/1.0500 vs the Usd and Nzd as post-RBA short covering continues, while the Loonie has lost some ground after a trade data-related boost as the focus switches to Canadian jobs data alongside NFP. However, Usd/Cad remains closer to weekly lows between 1.3045-70, and Cable is also nearer the bottom end of a 1.2550-87 range after this week’s bleak UK PMIs and further survey evidence of Brexit uncertainty weighing on the economy (BDO retail activity weak and IoD business morale worse).
In commodities, WTI and Brent futures have lost some ground in early trade, but have recently picked back up with the former just below the USD 57.00/bbl mark whilst the latter is around the USD 63.50/bbl mark. While newsflow remains light, it’s worth keeping in mind that WTI prices did not settle yesterday amid the US Independence Day holiday, thus a divergence in prices is observed. Elsewhere, gold is tentative, as usually the case in the run-up to NFP data with the yellow metal still above the USD 1300/oz level, having traded in a wide weekly 1382-1437 range. Meanwhile, copper prices are heading for the first weekly drop in a month as the red metal is pressured by a sluggish demand outlook and an increase in supplies. Finally, Dalian iron ore futures fell over 7% after China Iron & Steel Association urged the government to maintain order amid rising iron ore prices and wants prices to return to a reasonable level, while it was also reported that China regulators are to examine the drivers for the increase in iron ore prices. China Iron & Steel Association urged the government to maintain order amid rising iron ore prices and wants prices to return to a reasonable level, while it was also reported that China regulators are to examine the drivers for the increase in iron ore prices.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 160,000, prior 75,000
- 8:30am: Change in Private Payrolls, est. 150,000, prior 90,000
- 8:30am: Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 3,000, prior 3,000
- 8:30am: Unemployment Rate, est. 3.6%, prior 3.6%
- 8:30am: Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%; YoY, est. 3.2%, prior 3.1%
- 8:30am: Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.4, prior 34.4
- 8:30am: Underemployment Rate, prior 7.1%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
It may have lost some steam but no prizes for guessing what happened to core bond yields yesterday. On an unsurprisingly light day for news it was yet another move lower for yields outside of the periphery which was the only real talking point here in Europe however before we get to that let’s look forward as we’ve got a much anticipated US employment report due out this afternoon.
Indeed, this will be the last employment report before the FOMC meeting at the end of this month for which markets are pricing in 33bps of cuts as of this morning. As our economists noted in their preview, what today’s report says about the trends in hiring and income growth could meaningfully impact market expectations so expect there to be just as much focus on hours and wages as the headline payrolls reading.
In terms of expectations both our economists and the consensus peg payrolls at 160k. As a reminder, the May print was a much softer than expected 75k which dragged down the three-month trailing average to 151k. Our colleagues note that from the Fed’s perspective, the year-over-year trend in private employment is more important as this needs to outpace the trend in labor force growth in order to keep downward pressure on the unemployment rate. As Cleveland Fed President Mester reminded us recently, monthly payroll gains in the 75k – 120k range would still be consistent with the underlying trend in overall output growth. As for the rest of the report, the consensus expects the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.6%, earnings to rise +0.3% mom and hours to hold at 34.4. Our economists also expect earnings to rise +0.3% which should result in a one-tenth increase in the year-over-year rate to +3.2%, however they do expect hours to tick up to 34.5. All that to look forward to at 1.30pm BST.
Back to markets where, as mentioned at the top, it was the move lower for bond yields which got the most attention on an otherwise quiet day. The headline grabber was 10y Bunds falling below the ECB deposit rate for the first time ever. They eventually closed at -0.402% which was -1.3bps on the day and the sixth successive day that yields have dropped. In fact, out of the 45 trading days back to May 3rd, 10y Bund yields have fallen on 32 of those days. The most that we can find over 45 days based on data back to 1991 is 34 days that yields have dropped so this is up there with the most days ever over a 45-day run. Similar maturity yields in France (-2.9bps) and Netherlands (-1.8bps) also nudged lower while Gilts fell -1.5bps. The exception was the periphery where BTPs rose +9.0bps. There wasn’t any specific news and instead it just appeared to be a bit of profit taking following a six-day rally which had seen yields fall -57.6bps. Also tentatively bucking the trend was the EUR 5y5y inflation swap which rose 1.9bps to 1.160%. Meanwhile, equity markets were open however there really wasn’t much to report with the STOXX 600 rising +0.09% in an intraday range of just 0.25%.
Anyway, yesterday’s bond moves mean the Bund curve is now negative at all maturities out to 2040. In fact, we count 49 outstanding Bunds with a maturity of at least 12 months and all but 4 now have a negative yield. That’s around 90% by market value which is fairly staggering. Across Europe we’ve now got negative 2y and 5y yields in 17 different countries. At the 10y maturity we’ve got negative yields in 9 different countries including Switzerland, Germany, Denmark, Netherlands, Austria, Finland, France, Belgium and Sweden. To be fair Slovakia, Ireland, Slovenia and Latvia are within a sneeze of dropping into negative territory too. For 30y bonds it’s still only Switzerland which has a negative yield with Germany (0.194%) and Netherlands (0.204%) the closest after that. If you were also wondering what the longest dated government bond was yielding in Europe, well the Austrian 2117 bond – with 98 years to maturity – is now down to 1.061%. The duration on that is fairly eye watering at 52.7 and at a cash price now of 163.2, the bond is up nearly 47pts this year alone. Anyway, when it was all said and done the global stack of negative yielding debt held at the record high of $13.4tn yesterday.
Of course, JGBs are a big part of the global negative yielding debt stack too with yields negative at all maturities out to 2033. This morning 10y JGBs are little changed at -0.165% and the Treasury market has reopened with 10y yields down a modest -0.7bps to 1.943%. There’s not much movement in equity markets this morning either with the Nikkei flat and Hang Seng (+0.08%), Kospi (-0.04%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.18%) all failing to move with much conviction. That said futures on the S&P 500 have crept over the 3,000 level this morning which suggests we could be in for a record start on Wall Street. Elsewhere, news that British military forces had seized a supertanker near Gibraltar carrying Iranian oil to Syria in violation of sanctions against the country hasn’t caused much of a reaction in the oil market with WTI actually down -1.01% as we go to print.
In other news, the South China Morning Post reported last night that US trade negotiators will be in China next week to restart trade discussions. The report also suggested that China has still not confirmed to the US that it would immediately restart soybean purchases with China wanting clarity on how President Trump would ease sanctions on Huawei. It goes on to say that US officials are still debating between extending a 90-day reprieve on the export ban beyond August 13 or establishing a special approval process for Huawei and that the White House may elaborate in “next couple of days” on conditions for lifting export restrictions.
In other news, while it was a very quiet session yesterday we did hear from one of the ECB Governing Council members. Indeed Rehn told Boersen-Zeitung that “growth in the euro area has slowed significantly recently” and that “we cannot deny that there are doubts among market participants and the public about the ability of the central bank to achieve the price stability target”. He added “we have a number of instruments which are very effective and which, as a package, have even greater effects than isolated”. Perhaps most significant was his reference “if we really want to live up to our mandate, further monetary stimulus is now needed until there is improvement in economic and inflation prospects”. All-in-all the tone leant dovish and followed a similar rhetoric from Lane earlier this week.
As for data, it was very quiet with weak May retail sales numbers for the Euro Area (-0.3% mom vs. +0.3% expected) and a further decline in new car registrations in the UK in June (-4.9% yoy) the only readings of any substance.
Finally, the day ahead will be dominated by the aforementioned June employment report in the US this afternoon. Prior to that the only data due out this morning in Europe is the May factory orders reading in Germany and May trade balance reading in France. Away from that the ECB’s Guindos is due to make comments at a conference in Madrid.
I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.86 POINTS OR 0.50% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 76.72 POINTS OR 0.27% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 204.22 POINTS OR 0.25%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .50%
/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.8694 /Oil UP TO 57.82 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.36 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8694 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8759 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP RAISED RATES TO 25%
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA
A new feud is breaking out between South Korea and Japan. South Korea wants to be compensated for war time labour
Global Chip Supply In Jeopardy As New Trade Feud Erupts Between Japan And South Korea
The US trade war with China may have entered a tentative truce period, but a brand new, emerging trade feud threatens to jeopardize an entirely new universe of technological supply chains.
On Tuesday, Japan unexpectedly announced that it was considering imposing stricter export controls on more items bound for South Korea, in an apparent effort to raise pressure on Seoul to help resolve a bilateral dispute over compensation for wartime labor. The envisaged plan comes in response to what Tokyo views as Seoul’s failure to address the months-long dispute properly and prevent it from hurting mutual trust between the two neighbors.
Expanding the list of items, possibly to include electronic parts and related materials that can be diverted to military use, will likely exacerbate bilateral tensions, according to the Japan Times, and some within the government remain cautious about taking further steps, even though Japan has already announced that effective today, it will require manufacturers to file applications when they export to South Korea three materials used in the production of semiconductors and displays for smartphones and TVs.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Wednesday defended the government’s export controls.
“We cannot give the preferential treatment that has been afforded until now, as the other country has not kept its promise,” he said during a nationally televised debate with leaders of other political parties, a day before official campaigning begins for the July 21 Upper House election. “This does not go against WTO agreements at all.”
Meanwhile, Seoul, which regards the move as conflicting with the spirit of free trade, has threatened to launch a complaint against Japan at the World Trade Organization.
Commenting on the latest trade feud, the Nikkei warned that Japan’s new export controls on South Korea, a country that produces the bulk of the world’s memory chips, threaten a ripple effect that spreads beyond the two wary neighbors to electronics manufacturing globally, and could result in another semiconductor shockwave across the globe.
The restrictions mark the latest setback in a bilateral relationship between the two Pacific Rim nations, fraught with colonial-era grievances. The move prompted Seoul to say it was considering retaliatory measures and left chipmakers to confront an immediate supply challenge.
Adding to the complications, Japan’s government expects export reviews to take about three months. But South Korean chipmakers typically keep only one to two months’ worth of parts and materials in stock.
A source at chipmaker SK Hynix told Nikkei the company does not have three months of inventory. The chipmaker would have to halt production if it cannot procure necessary materials from Japan for that long, the source said. Top memory chip maker Samsung Electronics said it was assessing the situation, without elaborating.
The impact could spread worldwide.
South Korean players control 70% of the global market for dynamic random access memory and 50% for NAND flash memory. Samsung leads the global chip market by revenue, with SK Hynix in third. These chips go into devices such as Apple’s iPhone, rival models from Huawei Technologies, personal computers made by HP and Lenovo Group as well as televisions from Sony and Panasonic.
A representative at a major Japanese electrical equipment maker expressed concern that the new controls could backfire.
“If supplies of things like memory from South Korea are delayed and production of Apple’s iPhone falls [as a result], there could be an impact on our provision of parts,” the representative said.
Lesser-known Japanese companies hold leading market shares in the three restricted materials. Polyimides are used to make flexible organic light-emitting diode displays. The others are used in forming circuit patterns: resist – a coating substance – and etching gas. These companies include JSR, Showa Denko and Shin-Etsu Chemical – all of which are a third or more owned by foreign investors.
Japan also plans to remove South Korea by August from an export “whitelist” of 27 friendly countries that includes the U.S., Germany and France, meaning that shipments of products with potential military applications will require government approval. No country has ever been dropped from the list.
* * *
Tokyo cited a deteriorating relationship with Seoul as the reason for the controls, seemingly referring to a long-running dispute over compensation from Japanese companies to South Koreans for wartime labor.
The move follows Tokyo’s increase in inspections of some South Korean seafood that began last month, reportedly in retaliation for continued curbs on imports of food from areas affected by Japan’s 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster.
“It’s become difficult to manage exports based on a relationship of trust with South Korea,” Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasutoshi Nishimura told reporters Monday.
* * *
In response to the sudden trade aggression, South Korean Vice Foreign Minister Cho Sei-young summoned Japanese Ambassador Yasumasa Nakamine to demand that the export controls be removed. He expressed concern about the impact on South Korean industry and bilateral relations, and argued that the restrictions directly contradict Japan’s advocacy for “free and fair trade” at the Group of 20 summit in Osaka last week.
Cho said that the government would work with businesses to prepare countermeasures. South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy also said it would respond with “appropriate measures,” including filing a complaint with the World Trade Organization.
“We’ll make this an opportunity to enhance South Korea’s technological capabilities,” industry Minister Sung Yun-mo said.
Experts differed on whether the new regulations are valid under WTO rules. “This is an area where Japan can make decisions on its own, so it’s probably not a violation,” said Keisuke Hanyuda, partner at Japan-based Deloitte Tohmatsu Consulting. But Yuka Fukunaga, a professor at Waseda University in Tokyo, argued that the curbs may violate WTO agreements, as they fall into a “gray area.”
Whether a quick ceasefire follows in the coming weeks, and whether the US trade war with China ends up in a deal, remains unclear, but should trade relations collapse between Japan and South Korea, two nations at the cutting edge of global semi and tech manufacturing, the consequences not only for global trade but for corporate profitability would be disastrous. And case in point, this just hit:
(URGENT) Samsung Electronics Q2 operating profit dips 56.3 pct to W6.5tln http://yna.kr/AEN20190705000800320 …
(URGENT) Samsung Electronics Q2 operating profit dips 56.3 pct to W6.5tln | Yonhap News Agency
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3c China/Chinese affairs
Ceasefire Crumbles? China Won’t Buy American Soybeans Until Washington Provides ‘More Clarity’ On Huawei
Markets greeted President Trump and President Xi’s decision to re-start trade talks with jubilation. But as we’ve been saying from the beginning, this doesn’t mean a trade deal is a given – quite the opposite, actually.
That’s because Beijing and Washington have already begun to parrot some of their demands from before talks collapsed. And with Washington still unwilling to roll back all of the trade war tariffs, something that Beijing sees as non-negotiable, it could be a long time before the market gets the trade deal is so desperately seeks.
In the latest sign that suspicions among senior Chinese officials continue to simmer, and that the hastily cobbled G-20 ceasefire is suddenly on the rocks (again), the South China Morning Post reported on statements from a government spokesman and state-run media claiming that the commentary on Taoran Notes, a popular economic news source on the mainland, said Beijing would reneg on its promise to buy tons of agricultural goods from the US if Washington “flip flops” again, and that talks would “go backward again” unless Washington is willing to remove all trade-war tariffs.
“If the US flip-flops again in the negotiations, the promises to buy American agriculture products will also be overturned,” Taoran Notes said.
It added that China would have to consider its domestic demand and the opinions of domestic companies before buying US agricultural products.
SCMP’s sources confirmed that American negotiators would return to Beijing next week for what would be the 11th round of talks between the two sides since the trade spat first erupted more than one year ago.
If the issue of the US lifting its tariffs on Chinese goods can’t be resolved (which it almost certainly won’t be), talks could “break down immediately,” one source warned, leaving Washington to slap tariffs on another $300 billion+ of Chinese goods
If the negotiators are unable to resolve the issues, the talks could “break down immediately,” with Washington going ahead with new tariffs on US$300 billion of Chinese products, the source warned.
A Chinese source also confirmed that American negotiators would return to Beijing next week to iron out the details of what was discussed.
In any event, before moving ahead with promised purchases of American soybeans and other ag products, Beijing has been playing coy, insisting that they want to see Washington formally remove Huawei from the ‘blacklist’ as Trump promised.
Then, Gao Feng, the influential spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, said a trade deal would be “impossible” without the complete removal of US sanctions˜on China.
On Thursday, Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said a trade deal would only be possible if the US called off all tariffs on Chinese imports.
Such a move would require the Trump administration to give up its insistence that some levies remained in place to ensure Beijing honoured the deal. The US had argued that these levies should be lifted only when China made progress on certain agreed-to goals/
“If both sides are able to reach an agreement, the tariffs that have been imposed have to be removed completely. China’s attitude on the issue is clear and consistent,” Gao said, adding that both countries’ trade teams had been in touch about resuming talks.
Global Times editor Hu Xijin put it another way: China will only fulfill its commitments once the two sides reach a deal.
Before promising to remove Huawei from the blacklist, a decision that the Commerce Department appears to be resisting, Trump said the issue of the Chinese telecoms giant was a “tough one” that would be left “until the end” to deal with.
Apparently, Beijing has a very different idea of how these talks will go down. But any anxious investors can find solace in this: If talks collapse again in the coming days, it would virtually guarantee that the Fed will cut the Fed funds rate by 50 bps later this month, and therefore, would be bullish for equities, since both bad and good news is bullish now.
Deflation i ripping apart European and the globe. Belgium the Netherlands and France joins the negative yielding club. The total of all global negative bonds out there total 13,4 trillion or 25% of all bonds.
For The First Time Ever, German Bund Yields Drop Below The ECB’s Deposit Rate
For the first time ever, the yield on the German 10Y Bund, considered as Europe’s go to safe asset, dropped below the ECB’s -0.40% deposit rate, as consensus forms that the ECB will cut rates by at least 10bps in September, if not sooner especially with Christine Lagarde – widely perceived as just as dovish as Mario Draghi if not more – set to head the ECB.
“The markets are really saying we expect more from the ECB,” Marilyn Watson, head of global fundamental fixed-income strategy at BlackRock told Bloomberg TV. “We expect yields to go lower still.”
The inversion is notable because while the ECB can buy bonds that yield less than the deposit rate, priority is given to those that still offer a premium…. although in Germany, only 15% of the entire bond universe still has a positive yield as 20-year yields also turned negative this week and the 30Y set to follow soon.
This latest curve inversion, which signals that a European recession is looming, has spurred investors to buy riskier assets such as 30 Year Italian bonds, which yesterday saw their biggest one day gain since Draghi’s 2012 “whatever it takes” speech.
10-year German bund yields fell 8bps this week to a record-low minus 0.41%. Italian bonds have outpaced the bund rally to narrow the spread between the two to below 200 basis points Wednesday, the lowest since May 2018.
Germany joins the global curve inversion party, where the U.S., Japan, Canada and the U.K. all now have benchmark bond yields below the central bank’s key interest rate.
Meanwhile, confirming that Albert Edwards’ deflationary “ice age” is upon us, 10Y bonds from Belgium, France and the Netherlands have already joined the sub-zero club, which now amounts to a record $13.4 trillion in negative-yielding debt.
Predictably, as Bloomberg notes, European governments are cashing in, with both Spain and France auctioning debt at record-low borrowing costs on Thursday. France sold a total of 10 billion euros of 10- and 15-year bonds at record-low yields, while Spain sold 3.5 billion euros of debt across the curve.
And while the “Ice Age” is only set to get colder as the world slows down, ADM Investor Services strategist Marc Ostwald warned that the huge stock of bonds yielding below zero might pose risks if the global economy shows signs of a rebound in the second half of the year: “There’s too much cash looking for a safe haven home,” Ostwald said. “Bonds are in for a rough ride.”
Finally, courtesy of Bloomberg’s Tanvir Sindhu, here are some remarkable stats as global bond yields hit all time lows:
- Year-to-date EGBs returns led by Greece (23%), Spain (10%), Portugal (9.8%) and Belgium (8.8%)
- Around 25% of global debt now has a negative yield, amounting to a record high of $13.4 trillion
- The entire core and semi-core European government bond spectrum out to 10-year is trading in negative yielding territory
- Around 85% of the German government curve trades below 0%
- Around 55% of Spanish government debt has a negative yield (with selective carry the place to be this year, see more here and here)
- Italian front-end goes negative as BTPs turbo-charged sending 10Y lower by ~50bps in the five days through Wednesday, the largest such move since June 2018
- Around 75% of Japanese government debt trades below 0%, highlighting the importance of yield-thirsty flow from Japan into the global bond markets (see examples of analysis here and here on this theme)
- Around 80% of the active covered bonds of Germany and France, 83% of Spain and 57% of Denmark have negative yields
- EUR 5y5y inflation swap has given back nearly all of the post-Sintra spike; the ECB needs to restore some inflation credibility, which should be the trigger for 10Y Bund yield to move back toward 0%, helped by positioning being built at yield lows
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
THERE WERE TWO STORIES OUT THERE ON THE CAUSE IF BOTH PENCE AND PUTIN BEING RECALLED.
Here is one of them. The deadly fire was aboard a secretive mission. Location of internet cables?
The second storey not confirmed was a shooting match of torpedoes by Russian nuclear subs and USA subs off the coast of Alaska
(courtesy zero hedge)
Putin Confirms Deadly Fire Was Aboard “Secretive” Nuclear-Powered Submarine
When the story first broke yesterday that fourteen seaman aboard a Russian submarine died when a fire broke out while in Russian territorial waters in the Arctic region, there were conflicting accounts over the nature of the underwater vessel, specifically, whether it was a deep-sea research submersible or whether it was a nuclear powered submarine. Speculation was fueled further when the fact that many among the deceased were high ranking naval officers was revealed— unusual for a mere underwater “research” vessel.
Russian President Putin has now confirmed it was indeed a nuclear-powered submarine after officials declined to reveal even the most basic details, citing its “secret mission”. As CBS reports:
Putin met Thursday with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who had returned from the Navy’s Arctic base of Severomorsk, and asked him about the submersible’s nuclear reactor. Shoigu said the reactor is “completely isolated now” and it is “in full working order.”
The blaze has been identified as starting in the sub’s battery compartment and spreading from there, causing 14 crewmen to succumb to smoke inhalation, while an undisclosed number survived. Norwegian officials had also previously reported that they have discovered no unusual levels of radiation near the accident.
Russian officials have not confirmed the precise name and type of vessel; however, Russian media reports appear to have identified it as follows:
The ministry didn’t name the vessel, but Russian media reported it was the country’s most secret submersible, a nuclear-powered research submarine called the Losharik intended for sensitive missions at great depths.
Reports say that the Losharik, also called the AS-12, was on a research mission to measure sea depths in the Barents Sea within Russian territorial waters. It’s missions and specs are so tightly guarded only select military members with the highest clearance have access to it.
But given that mainstream western media can’t waste a Russian submarine tragedy without adding wild accusations of sinister wrongdoing over what the “sensitive mission” could have been about, less than 24 hours later we have the “Putin’s cutting the world’s internet” claims again:
BBC Monitoring described US officials as saying the AS-12 is designed to cut undersea cables that keep the world’s internet running.
It’s an accusation that’s been floating around the internet for years. All the way back in 2015 a NYT story cited the Russian underwater cable threat as “raising concerns among some American military and intelligence officials that the Russians might be planning to attack those lines in times of tension or conflict.”
Russian submarine accident? Cue Putin cutting underwater internet cables story again.
Of course, such unconstrained and rampant speculation works better in the complete absence of any level of evidence, and when the Russian military cites a “top secret project”.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Wednesday when pressed about the precise nature of the Losharik’s activities: “It belongs to the highest level of classified data, so it is absolutely normal for it not to be disclosed.”
Turkey Says S-400s To Arrive Next Week; Erdogan Slams F-35 Cutoff As US “Theft”
A top Turkish official has confirmed that Russian delivery of its deadly S-400 air defense systems, anticipation of which over the past year has caused an unprecedented breach in US-Turkey relations, is expected imminently.
The president of Turkish Defense Industries, Ismail Demir, confirmed that a huge development is expected next week: “I will not tell the exact date now, but you will see in the second week of July,” Demir was quoted as saying by private Turkish broadcaster NTV.
Addressing fears that it could radically alter the military balance in the Mediterranean, and amid accusations that the deal solidifies Russian influence over the Levant, the Turkish defense industries chief added, “However, we can use any weapon in our hand anywhere in Turkey whenever necessary.”
Amid threats of US sanctions on its NATO ally, and following Turkish counter threats of sanction on Washington which most western pundits have brushed off as unrealistic and laughable, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan repeatedly insisted over the past months that it is “a done deal,” pledging Ankara is moving forward “no matter what the consequences will be”— and despite the disruption of Turkey’s Lockheed purchased F-35 stealth fighter jets.
This month is where it all appears to be coming to a head: the S-400s will be delivered, and the Pentagon last month established July 31 as the cutoff date for ejecting Turkey from the F-35 program.
Cumhuriyet reporting the first S-400 battery will be deployed to… the former Akinci air base, i.e. the command center of the July 15 coup. https://twitter.com/cumhuriyetgzt/status/1146552972375154688 …
Mürted’de S-400 hazırlığıhttp://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/haber/siyaset/1469677 …
Of the F-35 issue, directly linked to the S-400s due to US fears its advanced stealth fighter’s capabilities could be compromised in the presence of Russian S-400 technicians who will be involved in training and initial operation, Erdogan slammed US policy as sheer “theft” based on violating terms of the contract.
“If you are looking for a customer, if you have one, and if this customer had made its payments with no delay, how can you refuse to hand over the customer their goods? This means theft,” Hürriyet quoted Erdogan as saying upon return to Turkey from an official visit to China.
Meanwhile, Turkish media reports have identified Akıncı Air Base, also known as Mürted, as the expected deployment site of the first S-400s.
Via Turkish media reports: “S-400 units, command and control vehicles, and radars will deploy at the airbase and will operate separately from NATO radar network.”
S-400 air defence systems to be deployed at Mürted Air Base #turkey #aviationsecurity https://www.hozint.com/?utm_source=twitter__hozint&utm_content=993749 …
The symbolism of this location is significant to Erdogan, given that uring the July 2016 failed coup d’état attempt the air base was used by pro-coup soldiers, resulting in Akıncı being bombed by loyalist planes.
Iran Threatens Seizure Of UK Oil Tankers In Response To Royal Marines Boarding Its Own
Iran has called for the “immediate release” of its oil tanker after British Royal Marines boarded and seized it off Gibraltar a day ago after it took a long 90-day trek around the tip of Africa, presumably to evade sanctions enforcement en route to Syria. Authorities had accused the Grace 1 supertanker of illegal smuggling as it had reportedly been transiting some 2 million barrels of Iranian oil.
Iran’s foreign ministry had immediately summoned the UK ambassador over the incident, saying the move was “unacceptable”. An official statement of protest called for “the immediate release of the oil tanker, given that it has been seized at the request of the US, based on the information currently available,”the statement added.
Iran’s position is that the EU sanctions on Syria have not been endorsed by the UN, while the US received the news as a positive development in the global crackdown on Iranian oil. “Excellent news: UK has detained the supertanker Grace I laden with Iranian oil bound for Syria in violation of EU sanctions,” John Bolton said on Twitter.
But Syria and Iran as well as some Arab commentators have shot back that the some few dozen Royal Marines seizing the tanker by fast-roping in on helicopter amounts to “piracy”.
To be expected, Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has threatened to seize a British oil tanker in a tit-for-tat move, and even went so far as to issue a statement saying it was Tehran’s “duty” to respond in kind. According to Middle East war correspondent Elijah Magnier, IRGC sources said they could:
“Potentially stop any tanker headed towards the UK and sailing in the Gulf.”
According to reports, UK authorities and Gibraltar police are interviewing the Grace-1’s 28-member crew to establish its ultimate destination and intent. Most of the crew aboard the Panamanian-flagged ship are said to be Indian, Pakistani, and Ukrainian.
European officials believe it was on its way to the Syrian port of Banyas and its refinery: “That refinery is the property of an entity that is subject to European Union sanctions against Syria,” Gibraltar Chief Minister Fabian Picardo had said in the wake of the unprecedented seizure, according to Reuters. “With my consent, our port and law enforcement agencies sought the assistance of the Royal Marines in carrying out this operation,” he added.
Both the Grace 1 as well as prior tankers attempting to reach Syria’s coast are accused of “ghosting” – which involves tankers switching off their transponders at sensitive transit points.
Critics of the West’s renewed devastating fuel sanctions on Syria, which has resulted in miles-long fuel queues outside gas stations – have pointed out that the EU has for years allowed weapons shipments to “rebels” seeking to ouster President Bashar al-Assad, while at the same time starving the populace of fuel.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES
7. OIL ISSUES
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
President Maduro Orders The Bank Of Venezuela To Accept Petro Crypto
Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro ordered the country’s leading bank, Banco de Venezuela, to accept the nation’s cryptocurrency, the Petro at all of its branches, the country’s Finance Ministry tweeted on July 4.
According to the tweet, Maduro gave “the express order to open Petro desks in all the branches of the Bank of Venezuela.” The announcement apparently came during an event celebrating the tenth anniversary of the nationalization of the bank in question.
On June 19, Maduro announced that 924 million bolivars (over $92.5 million) were allocated to the Digital Bank of Youth and Students to open one million Petro wallet accounts for the country’s youth. José Angel Alvarez, president of the country’s National Cryptocurrency Association, commented to cryptocurrency news outlet CCN:
“It is a bold and correct decision to move forward towards a hybrid economy where the fiduciary currency of a country competes face to face with cryptocurrency.”
As Cointelegraph reported in January, Venezuela has taken issue with United States sanctions, including those levied specifically against transactions in the country’s national digital currency, the Petro. In March, President Trump banned US citizens from buying Petro.
Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….
Euro/USA 1.1307 UP .0013 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX
USA/JAPAN YEN 107.51 UP 0.217 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…
GBP/USA 1.2647 DOWN 0.0060 (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//
USA/CAN 1.3189 UP .0004 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)
Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 13 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1307 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 14.86 POINTS OR 0.50%
//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 76.72 POINTS OR 0.27%
/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,50%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX
Trading from Europe and Asia
EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 76.72 POINTS OR 0.27%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.86 POINTS OR 0.50%
Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 50%
Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 204.22 POINTS OR 0.95%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1394.25
Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.03% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.
The 30 yr bond yield 2.54 UP 1 IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 96.66 UP 3 CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.
This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.32% UP 10 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.16% UP 0 BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.32%//UP 4 in basis point yield from yesterday.
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.75 UP 7 points in basis points yield from yesterday./
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 173 points higher than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.36% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//
THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.11% AND NOW ABOVE THE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1226 DOWN .0059 or 59 basis points
USA/Japan: 108.49 UP .673 OR YEN DOWN 67 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2525 DOWN .0058 POUND DOWN 58 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar DOWN 21 basis points to 1.3069
The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8936 0N SHORE (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: 6.8936 (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS
TURKISH LIRA: 5.6290 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.16%
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 9 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.04 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.54 UP 8 in basis points on the day
Your closing USA dollar index, 97.24 UP 47 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 27.46 0.66%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 61.37 POINTS OR .49%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 27.01 POINTS 0.48%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 66.00 POINTS or 0.70%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 134.19 POINTS OR 0.61%
WTI Oil price; 57.46912:00 PM EST
Brent Oil: 64.38 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN / ROUBLE RISES: 63.82 THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.35 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 35 BASIS PTS)
TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO –.36 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST
This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM
Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 57.69//
BRENT : 64.38
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.04… VERY DEADLY//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.54..VERY DEADLY/
EURO/USA 1.1226 ( DOWN 59 BASIS POINTS)
USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.49 UP .673 (YEN DOWN 67 BASIS POINTS/..
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.24 UP 47 cent(s)/
The British pound at 4 pm Britain Pound/USA:1.2525 DOWN 58 POINTS
the Turkish lira close: 5.6290
the Russian rouble 63.82 DOWN 0.35 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 35 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar: 1.3069 DOWN 21 BASIS pts
USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8836 (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./
USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8936(OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/
German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.36%
The Dow closed DOWN 43.98 POINTS OR 0.16%
NASDAQ closed DOWN 8.44 POINTS OR 0.10%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.28 CLOSED UP .71
LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.343%//libor dropping like a stone
And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY//
“Good” News On Jobs Sparks Selling In Stocks, Bonds, & Gold; Dollar Surged
Trade-Truce ‘good‘ news was good news for stocks, ‘bad‘ news in macro data this week was good for stocks, and jobs ‘good‘ news today was bad news for stocks (initially)…
But only stocks rebounded from the hawkish-tilt from the payrolls print
The Truce-Boost fizzled out in China…
European stocks faded to end the week but remain notably higher post-trade-truce…
On the week, Trannies barely managed to hold on to post-trade-truce gains, while Nasdaq surged followed by the S&P and Dow…
Volume was well below average (though somewhat expected given the holiday)
But on the day, good news on jobs was initially dumped and then pumped back to unchanged… once it ran out of ammo, stocks faded into the close…Small Caps were the only major US index in the green on the day…
Defensive stocks dominated cyclicals on the week…
VIX mini-flash-crashed on the payrolls print, spiked higher then faded from the european close…
Treasury yields screamed higher today, erasing the week’s bond price gains and erasing yield’s drop since The FOMC for the short-end…
As good-ish jobs data ruined the Fed’s 50bps rate-cut party, crashing the odds to just 2.5%!…
The spike in yields stalled at critical resistance once again…
And the yield curve collapsed, erasing the post-FOMC steepening…
3m10Y spreads are inverted for the 30 straight days…
The Dollar index had the best week since February, spiking today after the good payrolls data…
The Dollar spike stalled at critical resistance…
Yuan gave up all its trade truce gains and ended at the lows of the range…
As the dollar rallied, cryptos stumbled with Bitcoin and Ripple down 8% on the week (and Litecoin unch)…
Bitcoin remains above $11,000…
Commodities were all lower on the week not helped by the dollar strength…
Gold suffered its first losing week in seven weeks, but ended back above $1400…
Ugly week for oil after OPEC’s deal and the trade-truce…
Finally, we note the recent collapse in UK, China, and US macro data…
As bonds agree with the data, but stocks only know one thing…
Until it all ends badly…
i) Market trading/this morning after FOMC
the numbers are fraudulent
“Good” Jobs News Sparks Selling In Stocks, Bonds, Gold; Dollar Spikes
Well, for now, good news is bad news as a stronger than expected payrolls print has reduced the odds of a July rate-cut, sending the dollar higher and stocks, bonds, and gold lower…
The odds of a 50bps cut in July have plunged from 27% to 11%…
10Y is almost back at 2.00%…
Stocks are sinking…
The Dollar is spiking…
And gold is dumped…
a joke. this is an absolute farce!! multiple jobholders soar to a record
It Wasn’t All Great News: Multiple Jobholders Soar To Record High
While the headline payrolls number was stellar, coming in higher than even the most optimistic Wall Street forecast, one aspect of today’s jobs report that will likely become a major talking point for Democrats and other critics of the Trump economy, is that the number of multiple-jobholders soared from 7.855 million to 8.156 million, a monthly surge of 301,000 – the biggest since July 2018, and an indication that the jobs number was far weaker than the headline represents if one excludes all those workers who represented two jobs to the BLS’ various surveys.
Yet even this number had its silver lining, because while the Establishment Survey’s 224K increase was impressive, and the best monthly print since January, at the same time the BLS reported that the number of Full-Time workers soared by 453K, a dramatic reversal to the trend so far in 2019, where 218K full time jobs had been lost in the January – May period. At the same time part-time jobs tumbled by 174K in June, sending the part-time total for the first half to -187K, with most of the improvement thanks to the June number.
To summarize: June saw a surge in full-time jobs, as total US employment hit a record high of 157 million workers, however virtually all of this increase was due to workers being forced to get a second (or third, or fourth) job, double- (and triple-)counting those who can no longer make ends meet on one job alone.
In other words, enough ammo for both Republicans and Democrats to praise/slam the Trump economy.
S&P Futures Celebrate July 4th Above 3,000 As Global Yields Tumble
With the US closed for Trump Military Parade Day (also known as the 4th of July), and global markets drifting merrily in virtually non-existant volumes, stocks are where we left them at the close on Wednesday, with US futures celebrating not only today’s holiday but also the longest economic expansion in history in style – with the S&P, Dow Nasdaq all at all time highs, and the Emini just above 3,000.
Meanwhile, around the globe government bonds holding near all time lows on Thursday on the hope that economic data deteriorates further, and that a recession, or worse, forces the Fed and other central banks to unleash ZIRP, NIRP and more QE, has pushed world stocks to new 18-month highs.
With US markets closed, there was little action elsewhere: European bourses were flat, with Europe’s Stoxx 600 unchanged amid thin volumes. In Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.2%.
Germany’s 10-year Bund yield fell below -0.4%, dropping as low as -0.49%, piercing the rate set by the ECB’s -0.40% deposit rate for the first time — a sign that markets are expecting further rate cuts.
Other benchmark debt yields also held near record lows in the wake of their recent rally. U.S. 10-year Treasury notes had hit their lowest since November 2016 on Wednesday, pushed down by bets that the European Central Bank’s next head will maintain a dovish policy stance to buoy the euro zone economy. Italian 10-year bond yields stayed close to their lowest since late 2016 after the European Commission dropped its threat to discipline Rome over its public finances, pushing the country’s main bourse to a new two-month peak.
“For central banks, everyone is expecting dovish moves, not only for U.S. but also for Europe and even Japan,” Christophe Barraud, chief economist at Market Securities in Paris, told Reujters. “Everybody is a optimistic for quick central bank moves.”
The fall in U.S. Treasuries came after a barrage of economic data disappointments out of the US, capped by the ADP report showing that U.S. companies added fewer jobs than expected in June, raising concerns the labor market is softening even as the current U.S. economic expansion marked a record run last month. Meanwhile, the Citi US Econ surprise index is trading near the lowest levels observed since the financial crisis.
There was continued weakness in the dollar after President Donald Trump on Wednesday repeated his call for the United States to devalue the USD, and match efforts by China and Europe to manipulate currencies and pump money into their economies.
In FX, continued expectations for rate cuts by the Fed saw the dollar drift away from recent highs amid light flows as most pairs stay range bound. Weaker-than-forecast private U.S. employment data on Wednesday spurred concern that Friday’s jobs data could follow suit and boost the case for lower interest rates. That said, currencies were by and large quiet in early European trade. The euro traded at $1.1284, a touch higher than its two-week low of $1.1268 touched on Wednesday. FX strategists cited by Reuters, said that although the drop in U.S. Treasury yields overnight was negative for the dollar, softness in other currencies was lending some support.
“We are seeing some euro weakness and some dollar weakness, and the two are cancelling each other out,” said Thu Lan Nguyen, FX strategist at Commerzbank. “What is happening in U.S. and euro zone monetary policy will also determine what happens in smaller countries,” she added.
In commodity markets, oil fell on data showing a smaller-than-expected decline in U.S. crude stockpiles and worries about the global economy. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were flat at $63.84 per barrel by 1109 GMT.
After taking a breather today, US investors will now focus on Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls, which economists expect to have sharply rebounded to 160,000 in June compared with 75,000 in May; the number will be closely watched for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next move due in just 4 weeks.
“Friday’s data is important to the extent that it will calibrate expectations for what the Fed could deliver later this month,” said Ned Rumpeltin, European head of FX strategy at Toronto-Dominion Bank in London. “It is more about confirming the market’s current bias rather than setting fresh expectations.”
June Payrolls Soar To 225K, Sending Rate Cut Odds Tumbling Despite Cooling Wage Growth
So much for 50bps of rate cuts in July.
With whisper numbers for the June payrolls well below the 160K consensus (perhaps as the market hoped the case for 2 rate cuts in July would be cemented), moments ago the BLS reported that last month 224K jobs were created, three times greater than the revised 72K jobs in May, and well above the 160K expected and above the highest Wall Street forecast.
This was also the best monthly increase since January, and a number that has made 2 rate cuts at the Fed’s July meeting virtually impossible, and even setting the scene for a Fed that may in fact be “patient” in three weeks, crushing market hopes for an imminent easing cycle.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down from +224,000 to +216,000, and the change for May was revised down from +75,000 to +72,000. With these revisions, employment gains in April and May combined were 11,000 less than previously reported.
Sure enough, the market implied odds of a July rate cut slumped quickly even as the wage growth number disappointed, as the BLS reported only 0.2% increase in average hourly wages in June, below the 0.3% expected, a number which also missed on a Y/Y bases, increasing 3.1% Y/Y in June, below the 3.2% expected.
There was no rebound in the recent modest drop in the average workweek for all employees, which was unchanged at 34.4 hours in June, same as last month, although in manufacturing, the average workweek edged up 0.1 hour to 40.7 hours, while overtime was unchanged at 3.4 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls held at 33.6 hours.
The unemployment rate, which has become a secondary indicator, rose fractionally to 3.7%, from 3.6% in May, and missing the 3.6% expectation, even as the unemployment rate for black dipped back to 6.0%, matching the all time record low offset by a modest increase in the unemployment rate for hispanics..
iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES
JPM Buys Treasuries, Italian Bonds In Big Bet On Global Stimulus
JP Morgan got out ahead of many of its Wall Street peers two months ago when its chief economist laid out the bank’s view that it now expects two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2019. Of course, that was before most analysts started calling for a 50 bp cut when the FOMC meets later this month.
But in keeping with the market’s shift toward a “good news is terrible news” dynamic as the global rally in bonds and equities pins its hopes on more central-bank easing, or bust, JPM is now calling for 75 bp of cuts this year. And its massive asset-management arm is already positioning accordingly.
Per Bloomberg, JPM Asset Management is buying up 5- and 10-year Treasuries, as well as 5-year and other short-dated Italian bonds, to take advantage of a global bond rally that it expects to continue, driven by more rate cuts and a return to QE by the ECB.
Some prominent strategists declared that Friday’s moderately strong report has taken a 50 bp cut off the table. But before the data were published Friday morning, JPM’s Mac Gorain explained in an interview with Bloomberg that the dovish backdrop of subdued inflation and an intractable trade war will keep central banks on their toes.
Gorain explained that the $1.7 trillion money manager has been snapping up five- and 10-year notes. It’s also buying Italian bonds, which it expects will be one of the major beneficiaries should the ECB restart debt purchases.
“The dovish backdrop comes from inflation but the trade war makes the cuts far more immediate,” Mac Gorain said in an interview. “We don’t really need to see any further escalation in the trade war for central banks to cut.”
The call comes as the 10-year German bund yield slipped below the ECB’s deposit rate (-0.40%) for the first time ever, and after the Italian 30-year bond notched its largest one-day gain since Draghi’s famous “whatever it takes” speech in 2012 (remember, bond yields move inversely to prices).
The yield on the 2-year BTP dropped below zero this week for the first time since last May, while the 10-year BTP yield declined to 1.56% on Thursday, its lowest level since October 2016. Even after these declines, BTP yields are still among the highest in the eurozone.
Circling back to the Treasury market, Gorain believes that the yield on the 10-year will drop to 1.75% (from 1.95% on Friday) by the end of the year as the Fed cuts rates.
Over the longer term, the big question, per Gorain, is whether the Fed funds rate will fall all the way back to zero before the cycle turns. Since more stimulus should, in theory, ignite a rebound in growth that should, again in theory, provoke a selloff in bonds, Gorain is effectively betting that the stimulus will fail, prompting the central banks to impose even more stimulus (because doing more of what has failed is always the answer).
“One of the questions we ask ourselves is: Is the Fed going to get back to zero in the cycle?” Mac Gorain said. “It is possible they could do, but I think it’s not clear as yet. It really depends on how the economy evolves.”
If the Fed doesn’t come through with the expected 50 bp rate cut later this month, it could create problems for Gorain and his clients. Without the support from central banks, it’s difficult to imagine how this trade will work out. But with Christine Lagarde likely heading to the ECB, the notion that there will be aggressive easing out of Europe is looking increasingly probable, following Draghi’s reiteration last month of his vow to do whatever it takes – including using all policy tools at his disposal – to revive growth and inflation.
CrowdStrikeOut: Mueller’s Own Report Undercuts Its Core Russia-Meddling Claims
Brooklyn-based journalist Aaron Maté has absolutely destroyed the notion that the Mueller report supports its core claim of “sweeping and systematic” Russian government election interference.
Authored by Aaron Maté, excerpt via RealClear Investigations (emphasis ours)
At a May press conference capping his tenure as special counsel, Robert Mueller emphasized what he called “the central allegation” of the two-year Russia probe. The Russian government, Mueller sternly declared, engaged in “multiple, systematic efforts to interfere in our election, and that allegation deserves the attention of every American.” Mueller’s comments echoed a January 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) asserting with “high confidence” that Russia conducted a sweeping 2016 election influence campaign. “I don’t think we’ve ever encountered a more aggressive or direct campaign to interfere in our election process,” then-Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told a Senate hearing.
While the 448-page Mueller report found no conspiracy between Donald Trump’s campaign and Russia, it offered voluminous details to support the sweeping conclusion that the Kremlin worked to secure Trump’s victory. The report claims that the interference operation occurred “principally” on two fronts: Russian military intelligence officers hacked and leaked embarrassing Democratic Party documents, and a government-linked troll farm orchestrated a sophisticated and far-reaching social media campaign that denigrated Hillary Clinton and promoted Trump.
But a close examination of the report shows that none of those headline assertions are supported by the report’s evidence or other publicly available sources. They are further undercut by investigative shortcomings and the conflicts of interest of key players involved:
- The report uses qualified and vague language to describe key events, indicating that Mueller and his investigators do not actually know for certain whether Russian intelligence officers stole Democratic Party emails, or how those emails were transferred to WikiLeaks.
- The report’s timeline of events appears to defy logic. According to its narrative, WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange announced the publication of Democratic Party emails not only before he received the documents but before he even communicated with the source that provided them.
- There is strong reason to doubt Mueller’s suggestion that an alleged Russian cutout called Guccifer 2.0 supplied the stolen emails to Assange.
- Mueller’s decision not to interview Assange – a central figure who claims Russia was not behind the hack – suggests an unwillingness to explore avenues of evidence on fundamental questions.
- U.S. intelligence officials cannot make definitive conclusions about the hacking of the Democratic National Committee computer servers because they did not analyze those servers themselves. Instead, they relied on the forensics of CrowdStrike, a private contractor for the DNC that was not a neutral party, much as “Russian dossier” compiler Christopher Steele, also a DNC contractor, was not a neutral party. This puts two Democrat-hired contractors squarely behind underlying allegations in the affair – a key circumstance that Mueller ignores.
- Further, the government allowed CrowdStrike and the Democratic Party’s legal counsel to submit redacted records, meaning CrowdStrike and not the government decided what could be revealed or not regarding evidence of hacking.
- Mueller’s report conspicuously does not allege that the Russian government carried out the social media campaign. Instead it blames, as Mueller said in his closing remarks, “a private Russian entity” known as the Internet Research Agency (IRA).
- Mueller also falls far short of proving that the Russian social campaign was sophisticated, or even more than minimally related to the 2016 election. As with the collusion and Russian hacking allegations, Democratic officials had a central and overlooked hand in generating the alarm about Russian social media activity.
- John Brennan, then director of the CIA, played a seminal and overlooked role in all facets of what became Mueller’s investigation: the suspicions that triggered the initial collusion probe; the allegations of Russian interference; and the intelligence assessment that purported to validate the interference allegations that Brennan himself helped generate. Yet Brennan has since revealed himself to be, like CrowdStrike and Steele, hardly a neutral party — in fact a partisan with a deep animus toward Trump.
None of this means that the Mueller report’s core finding of “sweeping and systematic” Russian government election interference is necessarily false. But his report does not present sufficient evidence to substantiate it. This shortcoming has gone overlooked in the partisan battle over two more highly charged aspects of Mueller’s report: potential Trump-Russia collusion and Trump’s potential obstruction of the resulting investigation. As Mueller prepares to testify before House committees later this month, the questions surrounding his claims of a far-reaching Russian influence campaign are no less important. They raise doubts about the genesis and perpetuation of Russiagate and the performance of those tasked with investigating it.
Read the rest of Maté’s report here. It’s worth the click…
E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
China blamed the US and UK for the Hong Kong riots and demonstrations.
@Jkylebass: This is exactly what we expect to happen. The ccp dresses up as peaceful protestors, they become violent, break windows, hurt people, and then disappear to allow the PLA dressed in HK police uniforms to storm in and “restore order”. It’s going to get very ugly for Honkies.
The expected ESU rally into the NYSE open appeared. It peaked 8 minutes after the NYSE open. Cleveland Fed President Mester said she is NOT on board for rate cuts.
Fed’s Mester says interest-rate cuts only needed if more bad economic data comes
Mester said it was too soon to know for sure which path the economy will follow…
General Motors reported its auto sales fell 1.5% to 746,659 in the second quarter. https://cnb.cx/2NpzOkd
A spasm rally occurred when reports surfaced the EU solons were considering IMF chief Lagarde to take over the ECB when Draghi exits on October 31. If there is someone that is capable of being more reckless with monetary policy than Draghi in the Old World, it’s Lagarde. Christine is strong proponent of negative rates. Plus, she’s a convicted crooked politician.
Christine Lagarde convicted: IMF head found guilty of criminal charges over massive government payout – will not face any punishment
@DiMartinoBooth: Negative Interest Rates Benefit the Global Economy, Says IMF Chief Christine Lagarde – WSJ “We see the recent introduction of (NIRP) by ECB & BoJ —though not without side effects that warrant vigilance—as net positives in current circumstances”(4/5/16) REALLY??
@OANN: Israel’s Foreign Minister says the country is preparing for possible military involvement in any escalation in the Gulf confrontation between Iran and the United States.
ESUs and stocks hit session lows just before 13:00 ET. ESUs and stocks then surged into the close on reports that confirmed that Lagarde will be the new ECB chief. The euro tumbled and gold surged on the expectation that Lagarde will go beyond Draghi is NIRP and QE.
Lagarde has never been a banker; she’s a politician; and a left-wing one at that.
Economist @dlacalle_IA: If anyone expected some form of normalisation of monetary policy and sound money from the #ECB they can forget it entirely. Expect full Bank of Japan mode with #Lagarde.
Die Welt’s @Schuldensuehner: An even more politicized #ECB? A Lagarde-Run ECB might mean a very different kind of Presidency. Lagarde, a shrewd negotiator who has run the IMF but has little monetary policy experience, would be first politician to take charge of ECB.
How U.S. Chipmakers Pressed Trump to Ease China’s Huawei Ban
An extensive lobbying campaign by the U.S. semiconductor industry that argued the ban could hurt America’s economic and national security.
@Schuldensuehner: Trump announced on Twitter Tuesday [evening] that he intended to nominate Christopher Waller and Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Shelton said that if appointed, she would lower interest rates to 0% in one to two years.[Judy wants open NA borders]
WaPo: She [Shelton] is clear that she would like to see interest on excess reserves go to zero, and… the Fed’s main benchmark interest rate could also be reduced substantially without doing any harm to the economy… https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/06/19/fed-meets-trumps-potential-next-pick-wants-see-lower-rates-fast-possible/
The afternoon surge was abetted by Team Trump verbal intervention.
Rep. John Ratcliffe Says FISA Abuse Investigation Is Complete
“They [Team Horowitz] are now in the process of drafting the report. I would expect that it will be a draft that will be completed in short order.”
Russian oligarch Deripaska told John Solomon yesterday that he had Christopher Steele on a retainer.
Russian oligarch’s story could spell trouble for Team Mueller
Deripaska’s interview with the FBI reportedly was never provided by Team Mueller to Manafort’s lawyers, even though it was potential proof of innocence, according to Manafort defense lawyer Kevin Downing… That omission opens a possible door for appeal for what is known as a Brady violation, for hiding exculpatory information from a defendant…
Deripaska confirmed a story I reported last year from FBI sources that he spent more than $20 million of his own money between 2009 and 2011 on a private rescue operation to free Robert Levinson, a retired FBI agent captured in Iran in 2007 while on a CIA mission.
Deripaska confirmed he paid for the operation at the request of the FBI, which was then under Mueller’s direction. And he added that McCabe, then a rising FBI supervisor who was a former colleague of Levinson and later became a key figure in the Russia collusion probe, was one of those who asked him to help…
Deripaska’s tale has the potential to raise questions about a conflict of interest, since Mueller’s FBI first received a gift in the form of the privately funded rescue mission before Mueller, as special prosecutor, investigated Deripaska’s ties to key figures in the Russia case…
@ChuckRossDC: Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska had Christopher Steele on retainer for a legal matter in London, he tells @jsolomonReports. So Steele worked for an oligarch with ties to Manafort, as well as for the DNC and Clinton campaign. A pretty big deal.
Arizona governor pulls state aid for Nike plant over Betsy Ross-Colin Kaepernick controversy https://cbsn.ws/2KWs5bh
Sen. Josh Hawley @HawleyMO: Nike is a symbol of everything wrong with the corporate economy. They take advantage of our laws butsend jobs overseas for sweatshop wages, partner w repressive regimes, aggressively avoid paying any US taxes, and then tell Americans to shut up and buy their stuff
Ted Cruz: “It’s a good thing Nike only wants to sell sneakers to people who hate the American flag.”
OAN’s @JackPosobiec: How much is Trump paying Nike to help him get re-elected?
@RealSaavedra: Democrat Rep. Frederica Wilson (FL) says that people who are “making fun of members of Congress” online “should be prosecuted”
We are living 1984. Big Brother will give you freebies; but you lose the Bill of Rights in return.