AUGUST 8//GOLD DOWN $4.20 TO $1498.80 WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS AS THE BANKERS THROW ANY TEMPER TANTRUM//ITALY CALLS AN ELECTION PROBABLY IN OCTOBER AND THAT GIVES SUPPORT TO GOLD//CHINA FIXES ITS YUAN ABOVE 7.0 BUT BETTER THAN MANY EXPECTED AND THAT FUELS THE DOW GAIN OF 371 POINTS//TRUMP THROW AN ATOM BOMB ON THE CHINESE BY REFUSING TO GIVE AMERICAN FIRMS A LICENSE TO SUPPLY HUAWEI; FUTURES TANK/YUAN TANKS//TRUMP OFFICIALLY INITIATES A FOOD BLOCKADE AGAINST VENEZUELA//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1498.80.  DOWN $4.20(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver: $16.95 DOWN 23 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1501.65

 

silver:  $16.94

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING  3/6

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,507.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/07/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 08/09/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 1
661 C JP MORGAN 3
686 C INTL FCSTONE 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 2
880 H CITIGROUP 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 6 6
MONTH TO DATE: 4,406

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 6 NOTICE(S) FOR 600 OZ (0.0186 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  4406 NOTICES FOR 440,600 OZ  (13.704 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JULY

 

 

326 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1,630,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1458 for   7,290,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 11882 DOWN 89 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 11613 DOWN 360

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC  SIZED 4879 CONTRACTS FROM 239,270 UP TO 244,169 AND WITHIN A HAIR OF A NEW COMEX OI RECORD, WITH THE 74 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ALMOST SURPASSED LAST YEAR’S   AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR AUGUST, 2961 FOR SEPT, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  2961 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2961 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2961 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 14.805 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 74 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

7.840   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

 

WE HAD ATTEMPTED COVERING OF SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX YESTERDAY WITH ZERO SUCCESS..AND WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SPREADING ACCUMULATION.

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER FOR SILVER.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF AUGUST:

10,329 CONTRACTS (FOR 6 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 10,329 CONTRACTS) OR 51.65 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1721 CONTRACTS OR 8.605 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  51.65 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 7.37% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1364.16   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4879, WITH THE 74 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  VERY STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2961 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY  SIZED: 7840 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 2961 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 4879  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 74 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.18 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.220 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 175% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 326 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,630,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

AND NOW WE ARE WITHIN A WHISKER OF ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,169  BUT THIS TIME  THE PRICE OF SILVER YESTERDAY WAS $17.18 AND HIGHER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 7.840 MILLION OZ
  2. CLOSE TO THE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 244,169 CONTRACTS (OR 1.228 BILLION OZ/, THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL 351 CONTRACTS, TO 599,965 ACCOMPANYING THE  $31.00 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /THE SPREADING ACCUMULATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN EARNEST FOR SILVER..AS THE LIQUIDATION PHASE FOR COMEX OI GOLD HAS NOW STOPPED

 

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG SIZED 9883 CONTRACTS:

AUGUST 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  9883 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 599,965,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9532 CONTRACTS: 351 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 9883 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 9532 CONTRACTS OR 953,200 OZ OR 29.647 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF $31.00 IN GOLD TRADING….AND WITH THAT STRONG GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 29.64  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER TRYING TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE TO NO AVAIL.

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST : 75,503 CONTRACTS OR 7,550,300 oz OR 234.84 TONNES (6 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 12,583 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 234.84 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 234.84/3550 x 100% TONNES =6.61% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     3746.09  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 351 DESPITE THE HUGE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($31.00)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 9,883 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 9,883 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 9532 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

9883 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 351 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 29.64 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $31.00 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE HAVE NOW STOPPED WITH SPREADING LIQUIDATION OF GOLD OI CONTRACTS AND THIS HAS MORPHED INTO AN ACCUMULATION OF OI CONTRACTS IN SILVER. 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  6 notice(s) filed upon for 600 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

two transactions!! what an absolute farce!

this morning

a)A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD

this evening:

b) A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 5.57 TONNES FROM THE GLD

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY:

A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

A DEPOSIT OF 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 4879 CONTRACTS from 239,290 UP TO 244,169 AND WITHIN A WHISKER OF A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORDED HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET EXCEPT TODAY AS WE HAD A RISING PRICE..OUR SHORT DERIVATIVE BANKERS ARE NOW IN DEEP TROUBLE AS THEY ARE TERRIBLY OFFSIDE AND NEED ASSISTANCE FROM THE GOVERNMENT (FED) TO PROVIDE THE NECESSARY COLLATERAL TO CARRY THAT SHORT POSITION…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER AND STOPPED THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS IN GOLD

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 2961  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2961 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 4879  CONTRACTS TO THE 2961 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 7840 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 29.64 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ ;AUGUST AT 7.840 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 74 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2961 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 25.87 POINTS OR 0.93%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 123.74 POINTS OR 0.48%   /The Nikkei closed UP 76.79 POINTS OR 0.37%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .82%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0466 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0466 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0740 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)China

Although China fixes its yuan weaker than 7 for the first time it was a little better than expected and that was comforting to the markets

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Italy

Salvini is set to remove his coalition partner unless he gets his way.  If he does not expect new elections and that will throw Italy in chaos

(zerohedge)

ii)Germany

A good looks at the GERMAN BANKING SYSTEM.  German banks  (the 3 major banks) has assets equal to 100% of German GDP.  Germany’s debt  to GDP is fallen from 80% down to 60% and this is making it harder for the ECB to purchase bonds to stimulate the European economy.  This is why Draghi will try and lower rates again and this is a killer for the banks.

(zerohedge)

iii)Germany

a false narrative:  Germany denies it will change its fiscal responsibility as it refused to give up on its balanced budget
(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

A good one: Realist vs Idealist

I am in the relist camp

(courtesy Michael Every/Rabobank)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

a)It officially begins:  Trump orders a blockade on food shipments coming from the Panama Canal to Venezuela

(zerohedge)

b)India/Pakistan

Heavy clashes erupt between these two nuclear powers

(zerohedge)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)China’s official holdings increase but this gold has already been mined and stored at banks.  Gradually China takes that gold and it becomes official gold

(Bloomberg/GATA)

ii)Sprott has now done a deal to Tocqueville gold funds with its managers.

(Barrons/GATA)

iii)What has changed during these past six years?. Chris Powell comments on this

(Chris Powell/GATA)

iv)Bill Murphy of GATA interviewed by Kaiser of Reluctant Preppers

(GATA/Reluctant Preppers)

v)Chris Marcus interviews me

(Chris Marcus, Arcadia Economics/Harvey Organ)

vi)A terrific commentary from Mish Shedlock on gold. He compares the percentage change of gold vs the %age change in the price of copper and the former is rising much faster than the latter. Gold is reacting to fears that central banks are out of control and do not know how to fix things

a must read…
(Mish Shedlock)

vii)China adds 10 tonnes of gold to its official levels which is quite laughable.  They produce around 407 tonnes per year or 33 tonnes per year. Thus they have decided to add only 1/3 of their production to official levels and store the 2/3 with their state banks.  The big question was Poland:  they added 100  tonnes this week.  Where did this amount come from? Poland produces only 3 tonnes of gold per year so this gold was acquired no doubt from London

( Lawrie Williams)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

THIS IS A VERY IMPORTANT HARD DATA!! Wholesale inventories and wholesale sales growth both plunge and that will be a huge negative to GDP numbers.

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Warren Buffet is badly bruised this morning as Kraft Heinz crashes are delayed results.  It seems that many people are moving away from processed foods.

(zerohedge)

b)Trump bashing the Fed again on the strong dollar. He wants it lower so his manufacturing industries can compete

(zerohedge)

c)This is going to be interesting: Trump now readies an executive order cracking down hard on social media censorship of conservatives(Michael Snyder)

d)Full scale war has just erupted as Trump will hold off on a decision on licenses for USA companies doing business with Huawei. American companies need a special license to supply Huawei and Trump is just not going to give to them. The yuan tanks, the futures have just tanked..

(courtesy zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Mifsud is the genesis of the Russian collusion hoax and no doubt that he is a USA asset.  This will once and for all prove that this whole affair was nothing but a hoax

(Gates /Epoch Times)

b)One complete joke:  Now McCabe sues the Dept of Justice and the FBI over his firing

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 351 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 599,965 DESPITE THE HUGE GAIN OF $31.00 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING). OBVIOUSLY WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME COMEX SHORT COVERING

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A VERY STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 9883 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR AUGUST; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 9883   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  9883 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 9532 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 9883 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 351 COMEX CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE TO NO AVAIL. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  9532 CONTRACTS OR 953,200OZ OR 29.64 TONNES.

 

We are now in the  active contract month of AUGUST and here the open interest stands at 2540 CONTRACTS as we LOST 214 contract.  We had ONLY 19 notices filed yesterday so we LOST 189 contracts or 18,900 oz of gold that will NOT stand for delivery AS THERE APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THESE GUYS HAVE MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND WILL TRY THEIR LACK OVER THERE.

The next non active month is September and here the OI FELL by 257 contracts DOWN TO 3933.  The next active delivery month is October and here the OI FELL by 2033 contracts DOWN to 44,417.

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 6 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  600 OZ. (0.0186 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 4879 CONTRACTS FROM 239,290 UP TO 244,169 (AND WITHIN A WHISKER OF A  NEW RECORD OI. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET AUGUST 22/ 244,196, CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 74 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.  HERE WE HAVE 436 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A GAIN OF 27CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 54 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED A FULL 81 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 405,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..  THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 2,209 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 149,864 CONTRACTS. OCTOBER RECEIVED ANOTHER 17 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 85.  NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 6874 CONTRACTS UP TO 61,738.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 326 notice(s) filed for 1,630,000 OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 364,503  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  706,243  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  AUGUST/GOLD

AUGUST 8/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
6 notice(s)
 600 OZ
(0.0186 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2534 contracts
(253,400 oz)
7.88 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4406 notices
440,600 OZ
13.34 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into Everybody else:  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/

Today: no amount  arrived 

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today
FOR THE AUGUST 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 6 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 3 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4406) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  AUGUST. (2540 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (6 x 100 oz per contract) equals 694,000 OZ OR 21.586 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of AUGUST

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (4406 x 100 oz)  + (2540)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (6 x 100 oz )which equals 694,000 oz standing OR 21.586 TONNES in this  active delivery month of AUGUST.

We LOST 189  contracts or an additional 18,900 oz will NOT  stand as these guys morphed into London based forwards as well as accepting a fiat bonus. THERE IS NO GOLD ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND,..

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 16.013 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 21.586  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// J

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  514,823.353 oz or  16.013 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,782,115.992 oz 242.05 tonnes

 

IN THE LAST 34 MONTHS 115 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
AUGUST 8 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 332,446.543  oz
CNT
Int. Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,205,236.900 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
326
CONTRACT(S)
(1,630,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
110 contracts
 550,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1458 contracts

7,290,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into CNT: 1,205,236.900 oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  1,205,236.900  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT:  332,446.543 oz

ii) Out of Int Delaware:  9563.53 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 343,010.073  oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

i) Out of CNT: 1,200,451.200 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of CNT and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

 

total dealer silver:  92/564 million

total dealer + customer silver:  311.175 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the AUGUST 2019. contract month is represented by 326 contract(s) FOR 1,630,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1458 x 5,000 oz = 7,290,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST. (436) and the number of notices served upon today 326 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the AUGUST/2019 contract month: 1458 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (436)- number of notices served upon today (326)x 5000 oz equals 7,840,000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month.

WE GAINED A STRONG 81 CONTRACTS  AS THE DEALERS BYPASSED THOSE STANDING TRYING TO GRAB WHATEVER SILVER THEY CAN. WE THUS HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 81 CONTRACTS OR 405,000 ADDITIONAL OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THESE GUYS REFUSED AN OFFER FROM THE BANKERS TO ROLL TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AND THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS FOR NOT ACCEPTING THIS CROOKED CONTRACT.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 326 notice(s) filed for 1,630,000 OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  132,756 CONTRACTS (we had some spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 207,669 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 207,669 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 1,035 million  OZ 147% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -.1.06% ((AUGUST 8/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.30% to NAV (AUGUST 5/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.85 TRADING 14.35/DISCOUNT 3.34

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY///INVENTORY RISES TO 824.89 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.50: A HUGE INVENTORY WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD LEAVES THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 818.14 TONNES

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00: A MASSIVE  DEPOSIT OF 11.44 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 814.62

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.55 TODAY: A BIG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.81 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.18 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY: A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.37 TONNES

JULY 16: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 15: WITH GOLD UP $1.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $5.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 11.WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.65 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 6.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 9/WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS, A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES WHICH WAS USED IN THE FUTILE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER THIS MORNING//INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.08 TONNES

JULY 8/ WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY FALLS TO 796.97 TONNES

JULY 5TH/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INV RESTS AT 798.44 TONNES

JULY 3// WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  798.44

 

JULY 2. WITH GOLD UP $18.90 A HUGE “PAPER” DEPOSIT OF 6.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

JULY 1: WITH GOLD DOWN $24.70 A HUGE “PAPER GOLD” WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 794.04 TONNES

 

 

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AUGUST 8/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 839.85 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 638 TRADING DAYS: 95.55 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 538 TRADING DAYS: A NET 70,99 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/2019: WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 468000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 26.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:  A HUGE 1.03 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER LEAVES THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 357.183 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: ANOTHER MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.276 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 346.980 MILLION OZ

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.668 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.704 MILLION OZ//

JULY 17: WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 29 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.518 MILLION OZ/INTO THE SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.036 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16: WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY: 15  WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 9/WITH SILVER UP A SMALL 7 CENTS A GIGANTIC INVENTORY GAIN OF 4.026 MILLION OZ/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ AND NOW IT SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR THAT THE SLV ( AND GLD ARE FRAUDS)

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328,492 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS WE STRANGELY HAD A HUGE INVENTORY GAIN OF 2,234 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.492 MILLION OZ

JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS A HUGE INCREASE IN INVENTORY..INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.330 MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 936,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 323.330 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 8/2019:

 

Inventory 363.311 MILLION OZ

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.12/ and libor 6 month duration 2.05

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .07

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.94%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.98

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.04

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Jim Rogers Video Interview: Buy Gold Coins and Silver Coins as Global Crisis Is Coming

Watch Interview Here

◆ “Get knowledgeable and get prepared as this crisis is going to be the worst in my life time”

◆ “I own physical gold and silver coins … everyone should own them”

◆ “I own Chinese, Russian, American, Australian, Austrian silver coins” and “I own UK and other gold coins”

◆ “Singapore has been and is a very safe location for storage, Switzerland is too, Austria is too, Liechtenstein is too, so far”

◆ “The Generals and “all the elites” have “their gold stored in Switzerland”

◆ The next crisis is going to happen so fast that people may not have time to react

◆ The fiat currency experiment of the last 50 years is coming to a brutal end

◆ “If you know a lot about silver and gold, you might allocate 90%”

◆ Gold and silver futures will be best in terms of returns, “if the financial and futures markets are still functioning”

◆ Gold and particularly silver are set to surge even more in the coming months and years

◆ The fiat currency experiment of the last 50 years is coming to a brutal end

◆ Gold and silver are not rising rather all fiat currencies are falling versus the precious metals

◆ This is seen in the surge of gold in all currencies to record nominal highs

◆ Gold’s record high in British pounds shows sterling is “falling apart” as people “are losing confidence in sterling”

◆ “Don’t sell your silver gold and silver now even though it may go down for a while”

◆ “If you do not know much about gold, please don’t invest too much in it”

◆ “I have made plenty of mistakes” …”all kinds” …”do you want to hear about my first wife!?”

◆ “Go out and have children … my children float my boat now more than anything else”

◆ Listen and Watch Jim Rogers Interview Here

NEWS & COMMENTARY

Silver prices book largest daily rise in 3 years as gold ends 2.4% higher

Gold touches 6-year high; Rush into US bonds sinks global stock markets

China Scoops Up More Gold for Reserves During Trade War

Growing fears of world recession haunt global markets

Fed’s Evans signals support for reducing borrowing costs further

Central banks around the world are surprising markets with aggressive rate cuts

Bonds and gold are sending danger signals to the stock market 

Global macro trader who nailed the 2008 crisis says next 3 months mark ‘edge of the cliff’ for markets—and ‘we’re there right now’

Brexit: 8 Serious Risks To Germany and the EU

Gold hits highs in many currencies

Buy More Gold Now, Société Générale – 13% to 14% Allocation for a Balanced Portfolio

Gold Prices via LBMA (AM/ PM Fix – USD, GBP & EUR)

07-Aug-19 1487.65 1506.05, 1225.82 1239.33 & 1330.11 1341.44
06-Aug-19 1461.85 1465.25, 1199.59 1201.21 & 1304.85 1311.11
05-Aug-19 1457.45 1465.25, 1199.92 1203.85 & 1307.92 1310.23
02-Aug-19 1436.05 1441.75, 1184.17 1187.28 & 1294.02 1298.44
01-Aug-19 1406.40 1406.80, 1161.12 1161.74 & 1273.35 1273.29
31-Jul-19 1430.55 1427.55, 1175.48 1167.45 & 1283.20 1281.37
30-Jul-19 1428.45 1425.90, 1173.47 1171.95 & 1281.75 1279.60
29-Jul-19 1418.95 1419.05, 1150.91 1157.94 & 1275.78 1275.30
26-Jul-19 1418.25 1420.40, 1140.27 1144.70 & 1273.02 1275.95

Click here to listen to the latest GoldCore Podcast

Receive our free Daily or Weekly Updates by signing up here and click here to subscribe to GoldCore’s You Tube Channel

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Exclusive-Offer-Swiss-Flag-B-1024x576.jpg
Buy, Transfer & Store Gold and Silver in Zurich, Switzerland – Six Months Free Storage

Receive our free Daily or Weekly Updates by signing up here and click here to subscribe to GoldCore’s You Tube Channel

Mark O’Byrne

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

China’s official holdings increase but this gold has already been mined and stored at banks.  Gradually China takes that gold and it becomes official gold

(Bloomberg/GATA)

China scoops up more gold for reserves during trade war

 Section: 

By Ranjeetha Pakiam
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, August 7, 2019

There’s a powerful constant amid the to-and-fro of the U.S.-China trade war as currency policy gets dragged into the standoff between the world’s two top economies: Beijing wants more gold in its reserves.

China’s central bank expanded gold reserves again in July, pressing on with a run that stretches back to December. The People’s Bank of China raised holdings to 62.26 million ounces from 61.94 million a month earlier, according to data on its website. In tonnage terms, the inflow was close to 10 tons, following the addition of about 84 tons in the seven months to June. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/as-trade-war-runs-hot.

end

Sprott has now done a deal to Tocqueville gold funds with its managers.

(Barrons/GATA)

Sprott will acquire Tocqueville gold fund and its managers

 Section: 

As Gold Surges, a Gold Fund Manager Gets Acquired

By Ben Walsh
Barron’s, New York
Wednesday, August 7, 2019

https://www.barrons.com/articles/as-gold-surges-a-gold-fund-manager-gets…

Central banks around the world taking dovish turns, an intensifying U.S.-China trade war, and revved-up stock-market volatility have pushed gold over $1,500 an ounce for the first time since 2013.

And it isn’t just the precious commodity that;s getting a boost right now — gold funds seem to be feeling the optimism as well. Sprott, an alternative-asset manager with about $8 billion in assets, said today that it is acquiring Tocqueville Asset Management’s gold strategies business.

… 

The companies said in a statement that Sprott would pay up to $50 million in cash and stock to acquire gold strategies and institutional accounts with $1.9 billion in assets under management based on Tuesday’s market prices, including the Tocqueville gold fund. The Tocqueville gold portfolio management team will join Sprott when the deal closes, which is expected in January 2020.

Sprott President Whitney George said that the Tocqueville team is “among the world’s most respected gold equities managers and we have enjoyed an excellent working relationship during the planning and launch of our joint venture over the past year.”

“Sprott has a globally recognized brand with a dedicated precious metals platform and a long history in the sector,” said John Hathaway, Tocqueville’s senior portfolio manager.

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

end

What has changed during these past six years?. Chris Powell comments on this

(Chris Powell/GATA)

Central banks change their policy on gold but not their madness

 Section: 

1:19p ET Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Over a weekend in April six years ago, without any corresponding news, the gold price was smashed out of the blue for nearly $200. For months before the smash analysts often said that China had put a floor under the gold price, buying whatever it could to hedge its U.S. dollar exposure without pushing gold’s price up too much.

That analysis made sense, since, with its estimated $3 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, mostly in U.S. dollar instruments, China was in a position to control any market on the planet.

But over that weekend in April six years ago the supposed Chinese floor under gold disappeared. Regardless of how much gold China had been buying, no collapse of that size could have happened in any major international market without China’s cooperation or consent.

The gold smash was clearly a coordinated intervention by central banks. So soon there was speculation that the central banks had decided that the gold price was getting away from them too fast, particularly for China’s dollar-hedging purposes.

Now, over the last week, gold and silver prices have been spiking dramatically and unprecedentedly, and central bank intervention against gold seems to be diminishing. This is suggested by the gold-trading footnotes in the monthly reports of the Bank for International Settlements, as well as by the lapsing of the European Central Bank’s gold sales agreement with its members. The decline in intervention may result in part from the exhaustion of central bank gold available for intervention, just as the collapse of the London Gold Pool in 1968 was caused by exhaustion of the gold reserves of the participating Western central banks.

So who is buying the gold?

Central banks not so closely allied with the United States have announced substantial purchases in the last couple of years, and over the last eight months even most-secretive China has resumed announcing purchases, if small ones that may represent only a fraction of that nation’s purchases. Of course China still has a huge foreign-exchange reserve in dollars with which it can dominate any market, at least for a significant time.

So either central banks now are divided on policy toward gold or they no longer want or are able to suppress the price with sales, leases, swaps, and futures market intervention. Indeed, with even President Trump clamoring for a cheaper U.S. dollar, the gold policy of the U.S. government itself may have changed, though the government long has refused to say what its gold policy is.

* * *

All this will exhilarate long-suffering investors in the monetary metals, whose view of the world financial system has been correct but who have been defeated by comprehensive cheating. As the monetary metals strain and break their shackles, their investors deserve a triumphal march, maybe to Dick Powell’s rendition of “The Gold Diggers’ Song” from 1933:

http://www.gata.org/files/DickPowellSings.wma

Gone are my blues, and gone are my tears.
I’ve got good news to shout in your ears.
The silver dollar has returned to the fold.
With silver you can turn your dreams to gold.

All the same, it seems so long ago when Bobby Godsell, then chief executive of AngloGold, remarked that gold investors and the gold-mining industry aspired to “a good gold price in a good world.”

A good gold price — that is, a price determined by a free-market relationship to other currencies and financial assets — would always help insure a good world by safeguarding it against recklessness, stupidity, corruption, and tyranny in government. Of course to remove that safeguard is why over the last half century central banks intensified their largely surreptitious efforts to suppress the gold price. Gold impeded their power.

So now we may be on the way to a spectacular gold price in a terrible world, a world engaged in trade and currency wars and getting closer to more shooting wars, a world in which central banks frantically continue to destroy all market mechanisms, buying equities and bonds to support prices, secretly trading financial and commodity futures to dissuade investors out of alternative assets, pushing interest rates toward and even below zero, and rushing to devalue their currencies, virtually proclaiming the worthlessness of government-issued money.

* * *

Amid all this the monetary metals will protect people, but only to a certain extent. If people also come to need guns, ammunition, and large supplies of freeze-dried food and drinking water, the metals will not be quite the consolation their investors have hoped for.

Indeed, the world already seems to be going crazy. At least the well-dressed people running it have gone crazy, presiding somberly every day over the chaos they instigated with their decades of market rigging, conducting the most important affairs of humanity in secret while encouraging people to believe that there is something for nothing.

Far from creating a good world, the people running it are creating a world, in Norman Mailer’s words, “where orphans burn orphans and nothing is more difficult to discover than a simple fact.”

So the song today for everybody, not just monetary metals investors, may be Cole Porter’s “Anything Goes” from 1934. He performs it himself here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wd1w5tn040g

The world has gone mad today
And good’s bad today
And black’s white today
And day’s night today
And that gent today
You gave a cent today
Once had several chateaus.

As long as anything goes, a good world will be a long way off.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Bill Murphy of GATA interviewed by Kaiser of Reluctant Preppers

(GATA/Reluctant Preppers)

Gold’s unprecedented trading hints at something big behind the scenes, GATA chairman says

 Section: 

8:51p ET Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In an interview with Dunagun Kaiser of Reluctant Preppers, GATA Chairman Bill Murphy says gold is trading like it has never traded before, signifying that something big is happening behind the scenes. Most likely, Murphy says, physical demand is starting to overcome the paper market.

The interview is 17 minutes long and can be viewed at You Tube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfTvQb2PZ-Y&feature=youtu.be

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Chris Marcus interviews me

(Chris Marcus, Arcadia Economics/Harvey Organ)

A government’s claims are probably driving silver up, GATA consultant Organ says

 Section: 

9:40p ET Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA consultant Harvey Organ, interviewed by Chris Marcus for Arcadia Economics, says he thinks silver is rising sharply because a government, probably that of China, is making claims for delivery of the metal. He adds that deliveries are taking longer and notes what he considers a key detail of tightness of supply — that shares of the Sprott physical silver fund have moved from their usual discount to net asset value to a premium over it.

The interview is 27 minutes long and can be heard at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBelIBvSxWg&feature=youtu.be

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

 

FROM CHRIS MARCUS TO ME: (MY INTERVIEW WITH CHRIS MARCUS OF ARCADIAECONOMICS)

Great talk yesterday. Perhaps the COMEX was listening in and realized it was a good time to buy. Nice little rally, right?
Interview up here:
END
A terrific commentary from Mish Shedlock on gold. He compares the percentage change of gold vs the %age change in the price of copper and the former is rising much faster than the latter. Gold is reacting to fears that central banks are out of control and do not know how to fix things
a must read…
(Mish Shedlock)

Gold’s Surge Is A Message: Central Banks Are Out Of Control, Not Inflation

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Gold blasted through the $1500 level this week. Let’s analyze the message. Here’s a hint: The message isn’t inflation.

The above chart is and end-of-day chart from yesterday. Gold closed at $1484.

At 11:30 AM Central, gold was at $1520, up $36 on the day.

Gold vs Copper

What’s the Message?

Stephanie Pomboy at Macro Mavens nails it.

steph pomboy@spomboy

at the risk of piling-on,the canary in the financial crisis coalmine has been singing loudly. the relationship btw the metallic barometer of financial insecurity (gold) and the metallic barometer of economic activity (copper) has been a reliable predictor of trouble in the past.

View image on Twitter

Gold Not an Inflation Hedge

As I have pointed out numerous times, and contrary to popular belief, gold is not an inflation hedge. Gold fell from $800 to $250 with inflation every step of the way.

Rather, gold is a measure of faith in central banks that everything is under control.

Gold vs Faith in Central Banks

Everything Under Control?

Clearly not, and I have easy-to-understand proof.

  1. Hello Treasury Bears: 10-Year Bond Yield Approaching Record Low Yield
  2. Negative Yield Debt Hits Record $15 Trillion, Up $1 Trillion in 2 Business Days
  3. US Treasury Declares China a Currency Manipulator Under Orders From Trump

If you believe gold tracks inflation or is some kind of inflation hedge, you need to think again.

Only in hyperinflation or its mild form, stagflation, is gold an inflation hedge. But even then, both are synonymous with central bank stress.

Hello Treasury Bears

Let me make it simple: It’s the debt, stupid!

The global economy is choking on debt as central banks are determined to have more of it.

Inflation? Forget about it. The bubbles are proof we “had” inflation.

The Bond markets says something else is coming up.

end
China adds 10 tonnes of gold to its official levels which is quite laughable.  They produce around 407 tonnes per year or 33 tonnes per year. Thus they have decided to add only 1/3 of their production to official levels and store the 2/3 with their state banks.  The big question was Poland:  they added 100  tonnes this week.  Where did this amount come from? Poland produces only 3 tonnes of gold per year so this gold was acquired no doubt from London
(courtesy Lawrie Williams)

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: China says it added 10 tonnes to gold reserves in July

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC)- China’s central bank, says it added a further 9.96 tonnes of gold to its forex reserves in July – a seemingly particularly astute move given the strong recent advance in the gold price so far this month. This is just one of the world’s Central Banks adding regularly to its gold reserves this year. So far the PBoC says it has added a total of around 84 tonnes to its reserves over the first seven months of the year. However, the latest increase is yet another reduction in the level of its monthly reported reserve accumulations after adding 10.26 tonnes in June. China is thus tending to add rather less gold to its reserves than Russia which has announced additions of around 96.5 tonnes in the first half of the year. It won’t report any reserve increase for July for another couple of weeks (it usually announces any gold reserve increases on the 20th of the month).

Of course, as we have pointed out beforehand, the veracity of the actual reserve additions by China – or for any other central bank for that matter – is always open to question as reported figures are not independently audited. The PBoC has a track record of announcing what appear to be misleading statements regarding its gold reserves in the past in going for long periods of reporting zero increases and then announcing mega rises which must have been built up during the years and months of zero addition reporting. China has claimed in the past that this gold has been lodged in accounts it has not been required to report to the IMF and only reports this when it is merged into its forex figures at a time it feels appropriate to let the world know.

Overall though even the total amount of gold held by China in its reserves has been questioned by many analysts – some think it is actually considerably more than the total of a little under 2,000 tonnes currently reported to the IMF. The nation is thought to have a target of at least matching the U.S.’s reported holding of 8,133.5 tonnes (a figure which many also doubt given the resistance to it being audited). China is thought to believe that gold holdings may have an increasingly important role to play in any future global monetary re- alignment which may come about in the next few years.

While Russia, China and Kazakhstan are perhaps currently the most consistent purchasers of gold for their reserves, the overall level of Central Bank buying remains impressive According to World Gold Council figures Central Bank gold buying reached over 650 tonnes in 2018, while its latest quarterly Gold Demand Trends report puts first half 2019 gold purchases at 374.1 tonnes, suggesting that full year 2019 should at least match the 2018 figure. Deposits into gold ETFs remain strong too, which bodes well for gold demand in the current year, and although supply may also rise slightly due to higher gold prices enhancing scrap sales the overall balance is likely to be positive for gold.

In a survey of Central Bank buying intentions, 8% of central banks said they expected to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months. Perhaps even more significantly a higher proportion of emerging markets and developing economy central banks (11%) expect to increase their gold holdings although the majority of central banks do not anticipate a change in their gold holding level. But this is as usual for the majority where reported gold holdings tend to remain unchanged year–in-year-out.

08 Aug 2019

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0466/ 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0740   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 25.87 POINTS OR 0.93%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 123.74 POINTS OR 0.48%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 76.79 POINTS OR 0.37%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.56/Euro FALLS TO 1.1204

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.19/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 105.95/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 51.95 and Brent: 56.88

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.58%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.56% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.21%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.11: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.02

3k Gold at $1500.80 silver at: 17.05   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 1/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.32

3m oil into the 51 dollar handle for WTI and 56 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 105.95 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9748 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0921 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.58%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.71% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.23%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.4952..

Global Markets Stabilize After China Fixes Yuan Stronger Than Expected

A quick case study on the power of expectations: On Monday, when the PBOC fixed the Yuan below 6.90 for the first time in 2019, well below consensus estimates, the offshore yuan collapsed, tumbling below 7.00 and as far as 7.10 for the first time since 2008, its biggest drop since the Aug 2015 devaluation and unleashing famine and pestilence across global capital markets. Then, on Thursday, one day after the comical fixing of 6.9996, the PBOC finally broke the seal, and set the daily reference rate of the yuan at 7.0039 per dollar, the first fixing weaker than 7.0000 in 11 years…

… but because the fix was a tad stronger than the 7.0156 rate estimated by analysts, the market took this as bullish and reacted with a relief rally sending S&P futures sharply higher from session lows.

And while China was quick to talk down the historic fix, and the market was clearly delighted by the fact that the fixing was not as worse as it could have been, the event was nonetheless momentous.

In a recent Bloomberg opinion piece, former UBS chief economist and China watcher George Magnus wrote “China allowing the yuan to slide below 7 to the dollar is a watershed moment for currency markets that’s symbolically equivalent to the U.S. and other countries abandoning the gold standard in the interwar period, or the collapse of the postwar Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates four decades ago. The implications for the global economy are equally significant.”

To be sure, the market has been eying the fix for insight on what constitutes a ‘comfortable’ level for the PBOC. UBS noted that although the PBOC has stepped up measures to slow the yuan’s pace of depreciation (including: introducing a larger counter cyclical factor, issuing central bank bills in Hong Kong to manage liquidity, pledging to keep the yuan stable) the market remains concerned about further weakening. “Today’s fixing is a clear message that China doesn’t mind letting its currency depreciate beyond any specific number, but would like to control the pace it weakens and mitigate market volatility as ‘stability’, which is PBoC governor Yi Gang’s main goal.” UBS believes that upward pressure on USDCNH is likely to persist in the near-term, as does Citi and SocGen, both of which expect the yuan to drift to 7.50 and lower against the USD.

For now, however, China’s stronger than expected fix provided a brief comfort to markets, and global stock markets enjoyed a tentative recovery on Thursday after the PBOC print as well as better-than-expected Chinese export data. On the latter, China’s NBS reported that exports increased 3.3% yoy in July (USD terms), up from a decline of 1.3% yoy in June, and imports continued to soften, declining 5.6% yoy in July (v.s. -7.4% yoy in June). Both readings were above consensus expectations despite the Sino-U.S. tariff struggle.

In sequential terms, China’s exports rebounded 2.6% mom sa non-annualized in July, reversing a contraction of 0.9% in June. Imports went up by 2.6% mom sa non-annualized in July following two consecutive months of decrease. China’s trade surplus moderated to US$45.1bn in July from US$51.0bn in June. Exports to the US continued to contract by 6.5% yoy in July, and exports to Japan also declined 4.1% yoy. In contrast, exports to the EU rebounded 6.5% yoy in July from a decline of 3.0% yoy in June, and exports to ASEAN increased strongly by +15.6% yoy in July.

This was enough for the beaten down market to express some modest bullish sentiment overnight, and the MSCI world equity index rose 0.25%, led by Asia and Europe, even though it remains down more than 3% since the start of August.

Futures on all three of the main U.S. equity indexes advanced after the S&P 500 eked out a gain on Wednesday, although much of the gains have been pared as traders walk in to their desks.

The Stoxx Europe 600 also climbed for a second day, following Asia higher in early trade, led by tech and chemicals shares. European tech stocks lead gains, rising for a second day as investors bought into chip stocks and names which have lagged this year. The Stoxx Tech index rallied as much as 1.7%, led by chip maker AMS +3%, telecom carrier United Internet +2.5%, IT services co. Capgemini +1.9%, and Sweden’s Hexagon +2.1%. News that Japan has granted the first export license to South Korea also helped boost sentiment: “This is positive for the sector as this is one of the macro uncertainties (along with China-U.S.) with the potential to endanger a recovery,” Bankhaus Lampe analyst Veysel Taze said.

Earlier in the session, a gauge of Asia stocks increased as China’s Shanghai Composite rebounded from the lowest level since February. Asian stocks advanced for a second day, led by material firms, with most markets in the region up, led by Indonesia and Taiwan. Japan’s Topix slipped 0.1%, dragged by SoftBank Group and Takeda Pharmaceutical, after the yen extended gains against the dollar for a second day. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.9%, driven by Kweichow Moutai and China Merchants Bank, as the nation’s July exports topped estimates. Chinese domestic equities are getting a boost in MSCI Inc.’s benchmark emerging-market indexes. India’s Sensex rose 0.8%, supported by HDFC Bank and Infosys, as investors weighed a bigger-than-expected rate cut against a less optimistic growth forecast by the central bank.

Emerging-market stocks headed for their first daily gain in 12 sessions, on track to end their longest losing streak in four years as investor concern over the yuan’s depreciation and the start of an all-out currency war faded. MSCI Inc.’s developing-nation equities index rose 0.9% after touching its lowest level since January earlier this week. “If the dovish pivot among global central banks manages to stay ahead of weaker growth data, risk and EM assets will likely find their feet even if USD/CNY stabilizes around a higher level,” Goldman Sachs strategists wrote in a client  note.

Meanwhile, yields have continued to be volatile following the latest rate spasm which began when central banks in New Zealand, India and Thailand surprised markets on Wednesday with aggressive interest rate cuts. The Philippines followed suit and overnight the Monetary Board (MB) of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) cut its key policy rates by 25bp, lowering the overnight borrowing rate, the overnight lending rate and the overnight deposit rate to 4.75%, 4.25% and 3.75%, respectively

“Financial markets are raising risks of recession,” said JPMorgan economist Joseph Lupton. “Equities continue to slide and volatility has spiked, but the alarm bell is loudest in rates markets, where the yield curve inverted the most since just before the start of the financial crisis.”

In response, markets ramped up their expectations for more easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, but the question remains how fast Fed policymakers will move. Futures now price in a 100% probability of a Fed cut in September and a near 24% chance of a half-point cut. Some 75 basis points of easing is implied by January, with rates ultimately reaching 1%. Curiously, there is a non-trivial chance of an emergency, August rate cut.

In rates, U.S. government bond yields resumed their drop on Thursday, while in Europe German and French 10-year yields rose from record lows after a rally in recent sessions. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped to 1.7120%, although it reached a low of 1.595% on Wednesday.

Gold also benefited this week as investors scrambled to find somewhere safe to park their cash, rising above $1,500 for the first time since 2013. Spot gold was last at $1,498 per ounce, down from as much as $1,510 on Wednesday. Gold is up 16% since May.

In foreign exchange markets, the Japanese yen rose again, gaining 0.2% to 106.04 yen per dollar. China’s yuan also gained. In the offshore market it rose 0.2% to 7.0734 yuan per dollar after touching as high as 7.14 yuan on Tuesday. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index inched lower Thursday as the greenback fell against all G-10 peers. The biggest overnight gains were seen in Australia’s dollar, which rose from a 10-year low as risk appetite stabilized.

In commodities, oil prices regained some ground amid talk that Saudi Arabia was weighing options to halt its decline, offsetting an increase in stockpiles and fears of slowing demand. Brent crude futures climbed $1.25 to $57.48, though that followed steep losses on Wednesday, U.S. crude rose $1.46 to $52.53 a barrel.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,885.75
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 151.68
  • MXAPJ up 0.8% to 489.77
  • Nikkei up 0.4% to 20,593.35
  • Topix down 0.08% to 1,498.66
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 26,120.77
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 2,794.55
  • Sensex up 0.7% to 36,927.55
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 6,568.15
  • Kospi up 0.6% to 1,920.61
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 371.14
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.0 bps to -0.561%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1223
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 9.3 bps to 1.069%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.2 bps to 0.183%
  • Brent futures up 2.2% to $57.48/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,497.66
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.49

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The yuan steadied after China’s central bank set the daily fixing stronger than analysts expected, providing some reassurance to traders rattled by a tumultuous week in markets.
  • China’s export growth rebounded in July, and imports shrank less than forecast, signaling some recovery in trade just as companies brace for the arrival of new tariffs from the U.S.
  • The Trump administration is rushing to finalize a list of $300b in Chinese imports it plans to hit with tariffs in a few weeks’ time, as U.S. companies make a last-ditch appeal to be spared from the latest round of duties
  • China is mulling the biggest changes to its futures market since 2015, an overhaul that would give global investors unprecedented access, make it easier to execute bearish trades, and lay the groundwork for wagers on stock-market volatility
  • The global trade storm battering manufacturing in Europe’s largest economy is about to reach the labor market. German joblessness, which declined from one record low to the next for much of the past decade, is no longer falling and risks a reversal as workers endure the repercussions of the country’s factory slump
  • Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini increased pressure on Italy’s ruling coalition, reportedly giving Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte a Monday deadline to shake up the cabinet and indicating that if his partners in the Five Star Movement don’t yield to his demands he’ll dissolve the government.
  • The exodus from active funds has sent fees inexorably lower, led to the loss of thousands of jobs, forced large-scale consolidation among firms and pushed the industry to the brink of a shakeout that only the strongest will survive. Now, the $74 trillion industry, as measured by the Boston Consulting Group, is on the brink of a shakeout that only the strongest will survive
  • Large fluctuations in currency and stock markets are not good for the economy, Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said
  • Oil rebounded from the lowest level since January after Saudi Arabia contacted other producers to discuss options to stem a rout that’s been driven by the worsening U.S.-China trade war

Asian equity markets gained as a firmer than expected PBoC reference rate setting and Chinese trade data helped the region shake off the initial tentativeness following the tumultuous day on Wall St, where stocks staged a dramatic intraday recovery and although the DJIA closed in the red, it posted its largest rebound YTD. ASX 200 (+0.7%) was initially subdued amid losses in its top weighted financials sector following earnings from AMP Capital and Insurance Australia Group but then conformed to the improved risk tone led by gold miners after the precious metal rallied above USD 1500/oz for the first time since 2013, while Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) was underpinned by currency flows and KOSPI (+0.6%) outperformed after Japan approved some exports of tech materials to South Korea for the first time since curbs were imposed last month. Hang Seng (+0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.9%) were positive with sentiment underpinned by relief after the PBoC announced the reference rate which was set beyond the 7.0000 level for the first time since 2008 but not as weak as expected, while participants also digested Chinese trade data which topped estimates across the board and still showed a significant, albeit narrower imbalance in US-China trade. Finally, 10yr JGBs were initially lower with mild pressure seen amid the improved risk tone in the region, although prices then returned flat with support seen amid firmer demand at the 10yr inflation-indexed auction.

Top Asian News

  • China Plans Biggest Futures Market Overhaul Since 2015 Clampdown
  • Philippine Central Bank Cuts Interest Rate as Economy Slows
  • Shady Japan Bond Sale Practice Returning as Yields Fall

Major European stocks are higher across the board [Eurostoxx 50 +1.1%], following on from a positive Asia-Pac handover after optimistic Chinese trade data lifted sentiment in the region. Indices are posting broad-based gains, although UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.1%) lags its peers amid a slew of large cap ex-divs. Sectors are also in positive territory, although defensive sectors are somewhat lagging. Looking at individual movers, Adidas (-1.3%) shares opened lower by over 2% as investors for weeks sought an upgrade to guidance, particularly after its rival Puma (+2.5%) raised its sales and profit forecasts recently. Sticking with the DAX, Thyssenkrupp (+3.3%) shares rose despite an EBIT guidance cut as investors shifted focus to its elevator division IPO (expected in FY19/20) and expression of interests for other divisions. Finally, Osram Licht (-6.6%) slumped to the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the Co’s largest shareholder rejected the EUR 3.4bln takeover offer form Bain & Carlyle. It’s also worth noting that Goldman Sachs has downgraded trade sensitive sectors (EU autos and basic resources) in light of the recent developments between US and China, although individual stocks are little swayed by the broker update.

Top European News

  • Thyssenkrupp Open to Selling Divisions, Cuts Profit Outlook
  • The Inside Men Who Johnson May Tap for a More Understated BOE
  • Aviva Reviews Asia Unit as New CEO Tulloch Starts Turnaround
  • Novozymes Finance Chief Makes Sudden Exit as Outlook Darkens

In FX, the Dollar is on a softer footing against its G10 rivals, and most EMs amidst another revival in broad risk appetite, prompted in part by Chinese trade data that beat consensus across all key components and offset or appeased concerns over the ongoing incline in the Usd/Cny reference rate. However, the index is still straddling 97.500 and from a technical perspective holding above key Fib support at 97.392 on a closing basis, if not intraday, and it remains to be seen if the latest upturn in sentiment proves more sustainable or transitory like on Tuesday.

  • AUD/NZD/GBP/CAD – In keeping with the improved risk tone noted above, Aud/Usd has turned full circle and a bit more from midweek session lows towards 0.6800, but unlikely at this stage to reach hefty expiry options residing between 0.6840-50 (1.2 bn), while Nzd/Usd is still underperforming within 0.6468-35 parameters following more dovish RBNZ rhetoric on balance after yesterday’s double-barrelled ½ point OCR cut. Elsewhere, Cable is back around 1.2150 and the Loonie has rebounded through 1.3300 along side crude prices ahead of Canadian house price data.
  • JPY/EUR/CHF/XAU – The safer-havens are off best levels, but interestingly and perhaps tellingly still relatively bid as the Yen contains losses below 106.00 to circa 106.30 with decent option expiry interest likely to cap further upside in Usd/Jpy given 1 bn running off from 106.45-55. Similarly, the single currency is holding above 1.1200, but also likely to be stymied by expiries as 2.4 bn awaits between 1.1230-40, while the latest ECB monthly bulletin is far from Euro supportive given a downbeat assessment of the Eurozone economy and outlook, albeit largely a repetition of President Draghi’s post-policy meeting text. Elsewhere, the Franc is pivoting 0.9750 and Gold is rangebound either side of Usd1500/oz.
  • EM – The Rand continues to underperform with Usd/Zar mostly above 15.0000 after recent technical breaks to the upside and with weaker than forecast SA mining data not helping.
  • RBNZ Assistant Governor Hawkesby said outlook for rates is more balanced after 50bps cut but added there is still some probability OCR will need to be reduced further, while Hawkesby also stated the central bank are watching inflation expectations closely and that unconventional tools are a contingency in the event inflation tanks although they would need to exhaust conventional policy tools first. (Newswires)

In Commodities, a day of consolidation for the oil complex thus far after yesterday’s wave of downside in which the benchmarks declined almost 5% as demand concerns continue to materialise. WTI and Brent prices have rebounded off worst levels and reside around 52.23/bbl and 57.14/bbl respectively at the time of writing (vs. yesterday’s lows of 50.55/bbl and 55.90/bbl). The recent trade-induced sell-off has caught the attention of Saudi officials who are reportedly looking at options to stem the decline in the oil market.  At the moment, no details of potential actions were mentioned, although desks note that anything else other than compliance control and further output cuts could be unrealistic, even then, reaching an OPEC+ consensus on further curbs could prove difficult given the debacle at the June meeting between the producers. Nonetheless, the media reports have seemingly underpinned the benchmarks for now. Elsewhere gold prices are tentative, albeit off its 6-year peak of 1510/oz and back below the psychological figure. Protectionism risk remains in the forefront for the yellow metal with trade sources noting that China expects the 10% levy on Chinese goods to be implemented on September 1 and thereafter be ramped up to 25% as China stands firm. Meanwhile, copper prices are flat on the day amid the cautiousness in the market, although the red metal did receive some short-lived impetus to test 2.60/lb to the upside as Chinese trade data topped estimates across the board, however, iron ore prices failed to benefit from the data amid ongoing supply glut and lower demand concerns. Finally, nickel prices surged over 10% overnight due to speculation that Indonesia could reel in an export ban on nickel ore in a regulatory move, although an official announcement is yet to be made.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,000, prior 215,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.69m, prior 1.7m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 64.7
  • 10am: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

A couple of days left before a 2-week break for me and a period where I won’t be able to use the excuse that I can’t look after the children as I have work to catch up on. Well unless the trade war goes even further into overdrive! Holidays are always a bit of a culture shock for me in that regard as the terrors are full on and very demanding. Work is mentally demanding but childcare is physically and mentally demanding. I’m quite happy to sit on an exercise bike for an hour but when there are three nappies to change with them all moving in opposite directions (and wriggling when you catch them) then that is harder. August is always hectic for me as I hunker down and finish off writing the annual long-term study. I’ve been sending my team on various wild goose chases this week in terms of researching stuff so an open apology to them all. If you have any theories about how the global debt mountain develops over the next several years feel free to offer up your pearls of wisdom or send me in the direction of must read material. Although to be honest I probably should have asked this at the beginning of the process a few weeks back rather than 2 days before my holiday. Better late than never.

Talking of better late than never, US equities again bounced as yesterday’s session wore on mirroring the pattern from Tuesday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were down -1.83% and -1.54% ahead of the New York open, but subsequently traded higher throughout the day to end +0.08% and +0.38%, respectively. Fixed income markets saw similarly sharp swings, with the 2y10y treasury curve flattening as much as -4.4bps to a new cycle low of 7.1bps at one point. The move was driven by a further sharp rally in the long end, with 10-year yields dropping as much as -10.9bps, as two-year yields fell a more modest -8.1bps. At one point, 30-year yields dipped below the fed funds rate to 2.122%. However, yields roared back alongside equities and 10-year bonds reversed all gains and actually ended +0.8bps higher, partially a reflection of improved sentiment and partially as a result of weak auction demand for fresh 10y paper. That auction tailed 1.6bps, despite being sold at the lowest yield since 2016 at 1.670%. The 2y10y curve ended just -0.2bps flatter in the end at 11.4bps

As for the improvement in sentiment yesterday, there wasn’t a single clear catalyst which makes sense if you look at the steady reversal higher all session. An article from the South China Morning Post used relatively optimistic language and said that “insiders on both sides expect September’s trade talks to go ahead,” which helped investors anticipate at least the potential for a trade war deescalation. On the other hand, the White House posted a rule effectively banning government agencies from purchasing equipment from five Chinese firms, including Huawei. The Huawei issue is likely still a major sticking point alongside the tariff subject. While the rule won’t have a large immediate impact, it will ban the US government from doing business with companies that separately do business with Huawei, making the measure a backdoor ban on many firms maintaining relationships with the sanctioned Chinese tech firm.

Over in Europe, bond markets shut before the rebound for risk, leaving closing prices there at fairly eye-watering levels. Benchmark 10y Bunds broke through -0.60% for the first time ever and closed -4.5bps lower at -0.581% yesterday. The entire Bund curve is negative again, with 30y Bunds now trading at -0.095%. To think it started the year at 0.875%. The cash price of that 2048 Bund is now 139.6 which means it is up around 30pts in cash terms alone in 2019. Curve flattening is also accelerating in Europe with the 2s10s Bund curve now at 26.9bps and the lowest since the GFC. Here in the UK we also saw the 2s10s curve get to just 2.7bps. Yields were 5-10bps lower elsewhere in Europe. Amazingly Spain and Portugal now trade inside of 0.20% and are racing towards zero. The amount of negative yielding debt unsurprisingly hit a new high given the moves yesterday at $15.62tn.

As for Austria’s 100 year bond, this security deserves its own paragraph. Since October, it has gone from a cash price of 107.3 to 191.6. It was also as “low” as 148.7 in mid-July. So that’s a rough return of +79% in ten months and +29% in four weeks. That takes its year-to-date gains to +64.40%, making it, to our knowledge, at or around the best performing asset of the year so far, better than the December Dalian iron ore future (+46.50%), Jamaica’s JSE index (+40.38%), Greece’s ASE index (+36.57%), and gold (+16.79%).

Oh and if you want to buy a UK 30 year inflation linked bond at the moment, your yield will be -2.08%. That’s their lowest levels ever.

The fixed income repricing also saw Fed Funds contracts move to price in 66bps of cuts by year end and 108bps by the end of 2020, though, in line with other moves, those were 9bps off their intraday highs. The various dovish central bank actions around the world yesterday obviously played a big role in the price action including the 50bp cut by the RBNZ (25bps more than expected), 35bps by the RBI (10bps more than expected), 25bp cut by the BoT (25bps more than expected) and 50bps cut by Belarus (might be the first mention for the country in the EMR). Today we have the Philippines and Peru rate decisions so we’ll be keeping an eye on whether the aggressive global easing trend continues.

Away from fixed income, European equity markets were initially playing catch up to the late gains on Wall Street on Tuesday but bourses did fade towards the end with the STOXX 600 eventually closing +0.24%. WTI oil prices slid -2.57% after US inventories data again disappointed, with a 2.3mn increase in stockpiles instead of the expected -2.5mn drawdown. However, prices did end a bit off their lows after Saudi Arabia said that they are considering all options to arrest the commodity’s price decline. WTI is now reversing these losses (+2.92%) this morning on news that Saudi Arabia has contacted other producers to discuss options to stem the rout. Gold crossed the $1500 level before ending +1.58% at $1497.78 yesterday. EM was mixed with the MSCI EM index gaining +0.45%, while the Turkish was up +0.58% against the dollar. The South African rand underperformed, falling -0.81%, likely harmed by headlines from the central bank governor that “we are not there yet” in terms of needing an IMF bailout. Not the cast-iron denial that perhaps investors wanted to hear.

After all that Asian equity markets are trading up this morning following Wall Street’s long climb from the lows last night with the Nikkei (+0.55%), Hang Seng (+0.67), Shanghai Comp (+0.91%), and Kospi (+0.96%) all advancing. Korean markets are also getting helped by the news that Japan has allowed exports of some semiconductor manufacturing materials to South Korea, the first such approvals since Japan tightened export controls in July. The Chinese onshore yuan is trading up this morning at 7.0430 (+0.24%), helped by the PBoC setting the daily reference rate at 7.0039 (vs. 7.0156 expected). This is encouraging a belief that the PBoC want a very controlled currency move even if they are slowly devaluing. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.44%.

We’ve also had the July trade numbers out of China where exports rose surprisingly by +3.3% yoy (vs. -1.0% yoy expected) while imports dropped -5.6% yoy (vs. -9.0% yoy expected) bringing the trade balance to $45.06b (vs. $42.65b expected). In terms of trade with the US, exports in July were down -6.5% yoy (YtD -8.2% yoy) while imports came down -19.1% yoy (YtD -28.3%) bringing the July trade balance to c.$28b (-0.41% yoy) and YtD trade balance at $168.3bn (+3.88%). So an expanding trade surplus with the US before the latest trade tensions. Interestingly the trade surplus increased with the EU perhaps suggesting more of their exports being switched there.

In other newsflow yesterday, President Trump delivered yet another salvo against the Fed via Twitter. He said that “Our problem is a Federal Reserve that is too proud to admit their mistake of acting too fast and tightening too much (…)They must Cut Rates bigger and faster, and stop their ridiculous quantitative tightening NOW.” Of course, the Fed already did cut rates last month and already ended its balance sheet runoff, effective last week. Trump went on to say that “Yield curve is at too wide a margin” which may be a reference to the flat curve. Whatever the intention behind the tweets, they unequivocally raise the pressure on the Fed.

As for actual Fedspeak yesterday, the only remarks came from Chicago President Evans, who said that “ inflation alone would call for more accommodation than we’ve put in place with just our last meeting” and said that on top of that, “risks now have gone up.” He, like his fellow dove Bullard yesterday, said that he had expected two 25bps rate cuts this year when he submitted his dot in June, but seemed to indicate that he favours more accommodation now.

Elsewhere, Italy’s Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini hinted yesterday that if his governing coalition partners M5S don’t yield to his policy demands then he could decide shortly to dissolve the power-sharing arrangement with his League party. He said, “I am not one for half measures, either we can do things fully and well or I am not one who clings on to his seat,” while adding, “something has broken down in recent months,” referring to the coalition. This morning Corriere Della Sera is reporting that Salvini, in a meeting with Prime Minister Conte, threatened to bring government down if some ministers aren’t replaced which includes Finance Minister Tria. The story also adds that Salvini has given Conte until Monday to act, after which he could meet with Italian president in the first step of breaking up government.

Finally to the day ahead, which is another painfully quiet one for data, with the only releases due in the US including jobless claims and the June wholesale inventories figures. Away from that there are central bank meetings due in the Philippines and Peru while Uber will report earnings.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 25.87 POINTS OR 0.93%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 123.74 POINTS OR 0.48%   /The Nikkei closed UP 76.79 POINTS OR 0.37%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .82%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0466 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0466 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0740 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

China

Although China fixes its yuan weaker than 7 for the first time it was a little better than expected and that was comforting to the markets

(zerohedge)

China Fixes Yuan Weaker Than 7 For First Time In Over 11 Years

For the first time since March 2008, PBOC fixed the yuan weaker than 7 per USD.

 

Offshore Yuan was leaking lower into the fix but rallied modestly on the 7.0039 fix (slightly stronger than the expectation of 7.0205)

 

This shift enables offshore yuan to weaken down to 7.1440…

 

But, as Nomura notes, it could be set to get worse.

If it turns out that actual economic momentum in China has flagged to the extent suggested by the deterioration in Chinese equity sentiment, past patterns suggest that there is still scope for RMB to weaken further.

The possibility remains that the yuan could depreciate even more against JPY and EUR than against USD, judging by the relative shift lower in the RMB Basket versus USDCNH, it seems that pressure is starting.

The PBOC decision comes as trend-following CTAs are chasing downside in Hang Seng futures and H-share futures at an increasing pace. They have restored their existing net short positions in Hang Seng futures to 48% of the YTD peak (June), and to 67% for H-share futures, which suggests room to build these positions further.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Italy

Salvini is set to remove his coalition partner unless he gets his way.  If he does not expect new elections and that will throw Italy in chaos

(zerohedge)

Italy On The Brink: Bonds Tumble As Salvini Issues Ultimatum, Conte To Meet With President

Italy is about to have an express date with political chaos again.

Overnight, Italian bond yields spiked following the latest media reports that Deputy PM, and Italy’s defacto leader, Matteo Salvini had issued a Monday ultimatum to shake up the cabinet and threatened that if his partners in the Five Star Movement don’t yield to his demands he’ll dissolve the government.

“I’m not one for half measures, either we can do things fully and well or I am not one who clings on to his seat,” Salvini said on Wednesday at a rally in the coastal town of Sabaudia. “Something has broken down in recent months,” he added, referring to the coalition.

Something that has not broken down in recent months has been Italian bonds, whose yields have bizarrely been tumbling despite the lack of ECB support, although overnight it emerged just who was the buyer of first and last resort was when Bloomberg reported that Japanese investors bought the largest amount of Italian sovereign bonds since at least 2005 in June; purchases of Italian government securities climbed to 278.8b yen ($2.6b), the highest since comparable data became available in 2005, according to Japanese balance-of-payments released Thursday.

And while we issue our sincerest condolences to Japanese pensioners who will eventually be repaid in Italian lira, there was some turmoil overnight in the Italian bond market following the Salvini ultimatum, with 10Y yields jumping by 10bps…

Source: Bloomberg

… while “lo spread”, or the 10-year yield premium over Germany climbing to the widest level in a month. It rose by as much as nine basis points to 2.09% before paring the increase to four basis points.

Source: Bloomberg

While hardly new, threats from Italy’s de facto leader to his Five Star government alliance “partners” have been escalating in severity in recent days, urging that either they stop trying to delay his agenda or he’s ready to pull the plug on the government and try to force early elections. Salvini, the League party leader, has called for deep tax cuts and investments, even if they fall afoul of European Union rules.

Salvini supporters have been pushing him for months to ditch the coalition as the League’s poll numbers approach 40%, a result that could allow it to govern on its own, and would likely result in another bond quake in Italy a la late 2018.

As Bloomberg adds, the deputy premier on Wednesday canceled rallies at beaches south of Rome as he preferred to stay in parliament and huddle with advisers and colleagues. In the evening he held a long meeting with Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and has since called off events scheduled for Thursday. Conte has reportedly canceled events on his schedule for Thursday as well, suggesting he is about to make a major announcement, which could well mean the end of Italy’s government.

And speaking of the ultimatum, Salvini has given the prime minister until Monday to accede to his demands for changes in the cabinet or he could meet with Italy’s president to begin the process of breaking the government up, Corriere della Sera reported. The League leader is calling for the immediate ouster of Transportation Minister Danilo Toninelli. He’s also reported to be seeking to replace other cabinet members, notably Finance Minister Giovanni Tria.

There still may be some hope: in a Wednesday night speech, Salvini thanked Conte and fellow Deputy Premier Luigi Di Maio, who heads Five Star and with whom he has quarreled incessantly since the government was formed over a year ago. He also denied he is merely seeking more cabinet posts for the League and added that what happens next is “in the hands of the Italian people.”

“Like in marriage, if you spend more time quarreling and trading insults rather than making love, it’s better to look each other in the eyes and take an adult decision,” Salvini said, adding that decisions could be made “in the coming hours.”

Alas, that decision may well be a divorce: Italian bonds took another leg lower after reports that PM Conte was set to meet with President Mattarella, ahead of the coming government collapse and subsequent elections that will assure that Salvini is Italy’s undisputed leader, one who no longer need a coalition partner to govern.

end

Election called in Italy

(Speciale/Bloomberg)

Salvini Calls for Early Italian Election in Bid to Broaden Power

 Updated on 
  • Asks for Italy’s parliament to hold a no-confidence vote
  • League leader says Italy needs a government capable of action

Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini called for “swift” elections in Italy, saying that the current governing coalition no longer holds a majority in parliament.

The League leader announced his intention to break up the fractious coalition with the Five Star Movement after weeks of heightened tensions, which culminated Wednesday with a split vote on a high-speed rail link to France. While the project has already been approved, Salvini said the division laid bare the “insults” of recent days and that it is “pointless” for the government to continue.

Salvini said a vote in Parliament should acknowledge that the government headed by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte no longer has enough votes to survive. The ball would then be with President Sergio Mattarella, who has the power to dissolve Parliament and call new elections.

Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio said he is ready to go to elections but urged lawmakers to first give final approval to a law that would drastically reduce the numbers of seats in Parliament. Luigi Zingaretti, leader of the opposition Democratic Party, said he is “ready” for a new vote.

While tension between the League and Five Star has been a constant since the start of the coalition more than a year ago, the temperature has been rising in recent days as Salvini’s advisers have pushed for an early vote. The anti-immigrant firebrand is far ahead in the polls and has been weighing whether to ditch Five Star, repeatedly accusing his partners of blocking his campaign promises.

“It’s pointless to go ahead with ‘no’s and quarrels like in the past few weeks, Italians need certainties and a government capable of acting,” Salvini said in a statement on Thursday night. “We don’t want more cabinet seats or ministries, we don’t want a reshuffle or a technocratic government.”

Euro Falls

Italy’s Parliament is currently in recess and it’s not clear when a vote can be held that would make the crisis official, with Italian media floating Aug. 20 as a possible date for the confidence vote. Highlighting the complexity of the situation, on Monday Italy’s Senate renewed its confidence in Conte’s government when it passed a security law handing Salvini more powers to curb immigration.

The euro slipped in the wake of Salvini’s comments and touched an intraday low against the Swiss franc. Bund futures pared their earlier decline.

“I think Italy will schedule new elections between next Oct. 15 and Oct. 30 and that’s good because it will remove all the uncertainty and the tensions of the last months,” Francesco Giavazzi, a professor of Economics at Milan’s Bocconi University, said in a phone interview. The outcome will be pretty clear, he added, as according to all polls “Salvini’s League will get about 40%.”

Riding High

An early election could give Salvini a chance to seize Italy’s premiership

The government was supposed to nominate the Italian member of the European Commission by Aug. 26 while a draft of the 2020 budget must be submitted to Brussels by Oct. 15.

END

Germany

A good looks at the GERMAN BANKING SYSTEM.  German banks  (the 3 major banks) has assets equal to 100% of German GDP.  Germany’s debt  to GDP is fallen from 80% down to 60% and this is making it harder for the ECB to purchase bonds to stimulate the European economy.  This is why Draghi will try and lower rates again and this is a killer for the banks.

(zerohedge)

German Banks: Cutting Off Nose To Spite Face

Authored by Steven Vannelli via Knowledge Leaders Capital blog,

This week, Germany’s second largest bank, Commerzbank, reported a fourth straight quarter of falling revenue and projected lower profit for the year, suggesting clients have been impacted by trade tensions.

Chief Executive Officer Martin Zielke describes the situation:

“Despite all the successes we have made, challenges continue to increase for the industry and for us… This might require further investments. And this is exactly what we are examining and assessing in our current strategy process.”

Commerzbank said it still expects a “slight” increase in profit this year, but that goal “has become significantly more ambitious.”

Commerzbank is Germany’s second largest bank with $528 billion in assets. It has $494 billion in total debt leaving a slight $34 billion in equity, or a 6% equity cushion. The stock is down 98% from its $304/share high on 5/9/07, making a new all-time low today.

The country’s largest bank is Deutsche Bank, with $1.541 USD trillion in assets and $1.468 USD trillion in debt. That leaves an equity cushion of just $73 USD billion, or about 5% of assets. The stock peaked on May 23, 2007 at $123/share and is down 93% from its high.

So, Germany’s two biggest banks have combined assets of roughly $2.1 USD trillion. Germany’s nominal GDP in 2018 was $4 trillion (USD). Just the two largest of Germany’s banks have assets equal to 50% of nominal GDP. It is estimated that Germany’s Landesbanken – regional banks – have an additional $2 trillion (EUR) in assets.

That is well over 100% of GDP if we combine Deutsche, Commerzbank and the Landesbanken.

How does that compare to the US?

In 2018, the US had a nominal GDP of $20.6 trillion and total domestically chartered commercial bank assets of $15.2 trillion. So, the entire US banking system, all 4,652 banks (according to St. Louis Federal Reserve) have assets equal to about 65% of GDP.

While the rest of Europe has been enthusiastically expanding its national balance sheet, Germany has gone the other way. Germany’s government debt as a percent of GDP has shrunk from 80% to 60% over the last decade.

This behavior has obstructed the European Central Bank’s (ECB) ability to buy bonds to provide monetary stimulus since the ECB had been buying bonds according to the size of the country’s bond market. As Germany shrinks its net debt, it compresses the capacity of the ECB to buy bonds from all members – think Italy.

So, in exchange, the ECB has had to resort to negative deposit rates to counter this. Expectations are that the next move of the ECB is to cut the deposit rate to -.5%. That should help German banks…

This contradictory fiscal and monetary policy is undermining Germany’s banking system, and possibly the entire European economy. Germany’s yield curve is negative all the way out to 30 years.

Who, in their right mind, wouldn’t borrow as much as a possible if this was the price of money on offer?

Germany is cutting off its nose to spite Europe’s face, but bankrupting its banking system in the process.

end
Germany
a false narrative:  Germany denies it will change its fiscal responsibility as it refused to give up on its balanced budget
(zerohedge)

Stocks Give Up Gains As Germany Denies Climate-Change Fiscal Irresponsibility

Update: Well that didn’t last long… Germany’s finance minister confirmed to Bloomberg via phone that Germany has made no decision to give up a balance budget.

Stocks are back down…

And Bund yields are sliding back…

Who could have seen that coming?

zerohedge@zerohedge

Germans, Europe’s most frugal population, will somehow agree to raise debt to fight climate change. Good luck with that

zerohedge@zerohedge

This was Lagarde’s first attempt at floating some ridiculous “noble” debt issuance cause behind which Germans would rally. She failed

*  *  *

Bund yields (and Treasury yields) and stocks have spiked in the last few minutes following headlines from Germany’s Der Spiegel that the government is proposing a €500 MM debt deal to fund climate protection, as part of Germany’s U-turn on its long cherished balanced budget goal by issuing new debt to finance a costly climate protection package.

Development Minister Gerd Müller demands more financial resources for international climate protection.

“There is less and less time to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, and in Germany we must increase our efforts and invest an additional 500 million euros in international climate protection next year,” the CSU politician told SPIEGEL.

“The challenge now is how to shape such a fundamental shift in fiscal policy without opening the flood gates for the federal budget,” a senior government official told Reuters, clearly realizing that this idea has virtually no chance of broad adoption by the frugal German population.

“Because once it is clear that new debt is no longer a taboo, everyone raises a hand and wants more money,” the official said. That’s why Berlin would link and limit any new debt strictly to the climate protection package which Chancellor Angela Merkel’s cabinet is expected to seal next month.

The money should come either from the National Climate Fund or from the federal budget, the minister said.

“This will enable us to finance an innovation and investment offensive for climate protection measures in Africa and, among other things, to strengthen international agricultural research,” said Müller.

More debt, more wasted spending, more fiscal irresponsibility – buy stocks, sell bonds!

Yields are spiking…

As are stocks…

However, FX Macro sums things up well…

FxMacro@fxmacro

https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/mensch/klimaschutz-gerd-mueller-verlangt-500-millionen-euro-mehr-a-1281029.html  if this is the story its a nothing BURGER!

Bericht des Weltklimarats: Entwicklungsminister Müller verlangt 500 Millionen Euro mehr für…

In einer Reaktion auf den IPCC-Bericht fordert Gerd Müller mehr Anstrengungen im Kampf gegen die Klimakrise. Dem SPIEGEL sagte er, Deutschland solle zusätzlich 500 Millionen Euro in Klimaschutzmaßn…

spiegel.de

What would you do if you raise debt at minus-50bps?? This is sheer insanity – MMT is here and Draghi/Lagarde will do more of the same til it all explodes.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

A good one: Realist vs Idealist

I am in the relist camp

(courtesy Michael Every/Rabobank)

“Are We To Be Tickled Under The Chin Or Punched In The Face For The Rest Of The Week?”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Idealists vs. realists

Monday, markets were punched in the face. Tuesday, they were tickled under the chin. Yesterday they were punched in the face and then tickled under the chin.

Following a weaker CNY fixing and rate cuts from the RBNZ, Bank of Thailand, and Reserve Bank of India, the punch was quite expected: indeed, at one point US 10-year yields were as low as 1.59%. The recession warning from the curve that was sent was so powerful that one really should not ignore it. As such, the tickle was unexpected: yet in one of those bouts of US exceptionalism that has some waving the Stars & Stripes and others muttering about the Plunge Protection Team, US Treasury yields round-tripped back up to 1.71%, and equities decided this was the time to rally.

So are we to be tickled or punched for the rest of the week? Consider the evidence:

  • German industrial production collapsed 1.5% m/m and 5.2% y/y in June. This is pre-Hard Brexit;
  • The editor of China’s Global Times has tweeted: “Washington’s repeated bullying has made it meaningless to continue trade talks in short run. China is mobilizing internally to fight firmly with the US, and all official media is participating in the mobilization. China and the US are caught in a stalemate worse than last round
  • A Fox news correspondent has also tweeted: “Chinese Trade Sources tell us that China expects 10% tariffs on an additional $300 billion will be added Sept 1st. Those sources also say China expects that 10% to go to 25% because China will stand firm and not buy US Agriculture”; and
  • India and Pakistan appear to seeing a full military clash on their disputed Kashmir border.

Perhaps the market can shrug off a clash between two nuclear powers – we already saw a similar threat a few months ago even if in reality it seems far less damage was done then than claimed. “Nukes, shmukes”.However, yesterday we shifted our base-case scenario for US-China trade relations to full escalation (see US-China trade war update: No turning back), which the news today supports. That is likely to matter more than nukes to our trade-obsessed markets.

Indeed, CNY fixing this morning was 7.0039 so even though it was well below the close yesterday of 7.0602 we have finally seen a fixing over 7 for the first time since 2008.

Nonetheless, there still appear to be two camps out there: not so much bulls vs. bears as idealists vs. realists. Consider the words of the head of the German cybersecurity agency talking about Huawei, which can be summarised as: “It doesn’t matter if 5G components come from China or Sweden. If political trust alone is the basis for investment decisions, we destroy the global division of labour and our prosperity. There is no qualitative difference between China and the US.” In short, the head of cybersecurity of a key NATO member is so wedded to a free-trade theory with more holes in it than Swiss cheese–intellectually and in terms of actual protectionism–that he is prepared to ignore cybersecurity.

By contrast, the US has just banned not just Huawei but five Chinese tech firms from selling goods to the government or anyone taking government money effective next week. Even in Australia, where every politician seems to have “house” tattooed on one set of knuckles and “trade” on the other, the chair of parliament’s security and intelligence committee has publicly warned “The next decade will test our democratic values, our economy, our alliances and our security like no other time in Australian history,” adding “We keep using our own categories to understand [China’s] actions, such as its motivations for building ports and roads, rather than those used by the Chinese Communist Party,” drawing comparisons to how many Western intellectuals fawned over Stalin, and concluding “choices will be made for us” if there is no Australian action, and “Our sovereignty, our freedoms, will be diminished.

Frankly, if you fall in the realist camp then you expect developments like Japan-South Korea trade relations breaking down; India-Pakistan clashes; and full-on US-China Cold War. As a result you are still expecting far lower bond yields, and after a lag, lower equities. You are also expecting USD to power ahead, along with JPY; and you realise central banks are going to end up serving political goals.

By contrast, if you fall in the idealist camp (“I’ve never been there but the brochure looks nice”) then our worrying backdrop is all just random nonsense that appeared out of the blue and everyone needs to realize free trade holds the answers to absolutely everything, while central banks can and should and will remain independent (just as they haven’t for most of their recorded history). Of course, equities will go up–they must!–and then rates will go up too without any problems. Ironically, central banks will also bail everyone out regardless if there are any problems, so there isn’t quite as much implied love for free markets as one might think.

Which camp are you in?

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

It officially begins:  Trump orders a blockade on food shipments coming from the Panama Canal to Venezuela

(zerohedge)

Trump’s Blockade Begins: Venezuela Says Food Shipment Blocked In Panama Canal

Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodriguez has denounced what state media is describing as a ship seizure by the USin the Panama Canal Wednesday.

The ship is reportedly packed with 25 thousands tons of Soya and was entering the narrow vital central America waterway, when its progress was halted in an event which Maduro government officials have condemned as a “serious aggression” that impedes the country’s “right to food”.

 

Panama Canal. Image source: Shutterstock

Though in the initial hours of Wednesday’s allegation major international media outlets had yet to confirm the claim, Rodriguez tweeted a statement, saying, “Venezuela denounces before the world that a boat that holds 25 thousand tons of Soya, for food production in our country, has been seized in the Panama Canal, due to the criminal blockade imposed by Donald Trump.”

 

“Venezuela calls on the UN to stop this serious aggression by DonaldTrump’s govt against our country, which constitutes a massive violation of the human rights of the entire Venezuelan people, by attempting to impede their right to food,” the vice president added.

Delcy Rodríguez@DrodriguezVen

Venezuela exige a la ONU detener esta grave agresión del gobierno de @realDonaldTrump contra nuestra Patria que constituye una violacion masiva de los derechos humanos de toda la población venezolana al pretender impedir su derecho a la alimentación.

State media subsequently explained that the undisclosed owner of the vessel was informed by the insurance company that it must cease moving the cargo through the canal.

The serious allegation comes after on Monday President Trump signed an executive order imposing a full economic embargo against Venezuela after a week ago the White House began signaling the US would seek to “quarantine” and fully “blockade” the Maduro regime if the socialist leader doesn’t immediately hand over power of his own accord.

The executive order freezes all government assets in the United States and prohibits all transactions by any Venezuelan officials, in what constitutes the first major expansion of sanctions targeting a nation in the western hemisphere in over three decades.

John Bolton had denounced Maduro as leading a “rogue state” on par with Cuba, Syria, Iran and North Korea following Trump’s signing the order.

“The Maduro regime now joins that exclusive club of rogue states,” Bolton said at a one-day conference in Peru of more than 50 governments aligned against Maduro. — AP

“We are sending a signal to third parties that want to do business with the Maduro regime: Proceed with extreme caution,” Bolton said on Tuesday in Peru. “There is no need to risk your business interests with the United States for the purposes of profiting from a corrupt and dying regime.”

The executive order states, “All property and interests in property of the Government of Venezuela that are in the United States … are blocked and may not be transferred, paid, exported, withdrawn, or otherwise dealt in.”

Given the new sanctions by US Treasury fall short of a full trade embargo, the US is not outright targeting urgent supplies like food, thus it’s not clear whether the alleged halting of the Soya transporting ship is the result of direct US action.

However, it’s likely that maritime insurance companies and private shipping firms will become increasingly skittish in dealing with Venezuela.

end

India/Pakistan

Heavy clashes erupt between these two nuclear powers

(zerohedge)

Heavy Clashes Erupt Between Indian, Pakistani Forces In Kashmir

Reuters reports intense clashes broke out Wednesday along the Line of Control in contested Kashmir between Indian and Pakistani troops.

Citing local media, Reuters described that “troops on the border had exchanged heavy fire and that Pakistani troops have fired mortars in the clashes.” The exchange of fire took place according to local media at the Sunderbani Sector along the Line of Control (LOC) after 10pm local time, with each side blaming the other for breaching a ceasefire.

 

Kashmir fighting illustrative file image.

Though few details were given, especially with a near total communications blackout on the Indian-administered side in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), military observers have been expecting intensifying shelling and clashes between the nuclear armed rivals after earlier this week the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata leadership in New Delhi revoked Article 370 of the constitution which protected Muslim-majority J&K’s special autonomous status.

 

Unverified social media reports from regional observers say the death toll is mounting amid a broad Indian crackdown on its side of the LOC.

Zaid Hamid

@ZaidZamanHamid

I have received confirmed reports of over 250 casualties of civilians clashing with Indian security forces in Kashmir. Just one hospital in Srinagar has received 50 bodies so far….
I have also seen around 14 dead bodies of Indian troops killed in the violent clashes.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan placed his armed forces on alert and on Wednesday recalled its ambassador while expelling its Indian envoy, and crucially took the drastic step of suspending bilateral trade with India.

PM Khan further directed the military to “continue vigilance” after previously saying Pakistan would take “all possible options” in support of Kashmir’s Muslim-majority population – this after regional media reported “tens of thousands” of Indian troops have surged into Kashmir, while a phone and internet blackout is in place.

A day prior to the fresh clashes, which are likely to escalate without external mediation, Khan had suggested a “genocide” could be unfolding as Indian reinforcements continued pouring into the restive border region.

Sana Saeed

@SanaSaeed

This is Srinagar, Kashmir – some of the first images we’ve seen since the lockdown. At least one protestor has been killed and over 100 people have been arrested by Indian military forces.

Embedded video

India and Pakistan have fought two wars specifically over Kashmir, resulting in the deaths of tens of thousands amid a nearly three decade armed revolt.

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1204 DOWN .0003 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.95 DOWN 0.161 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2150   UP   0.0011  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3300 DOWN .0013 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 3 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1204 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 25.87 POINTS OR 0.93% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 123.74 POINTS OR 0.48%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,82%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 123.74 POINTS OR 0.48%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 25.87 POINTS OR 0.93%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 82%

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 76.79  POINTS OR 0.37%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1497.90

silver:$17.04-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.71% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.23 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 97.56 UP 2 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.24% UP 6 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.19% DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.22%//UP 5 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,54 UP 12 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 132 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.56% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.10% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 2.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL BEGIN TO IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1213  UP     .0009 or 9 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.08 DOWN .035 OR YEN UP 4  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2138 DOWN .0002 POUND DOWN 2  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 74 basis points to 1.3240

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0451    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING VERY DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0660  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING VERY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.4536 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.13%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.75 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.28 UP 2 in basis points on the day

AND DID NOT BUY THE DOW GAIN!

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.52 DOWN 2  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 69.16  0.56%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 154.82 POINTS OR 1.33%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 98.64 POINTS 1.87%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 92.00 POINTS or 1.05%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 222.73 POINTS OR 1.08%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 52.73 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 57.513 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.12  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.21 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 21 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.24 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  52.78//

 

 

BRENT :  57.63

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.72  down 2 basis points and did not buy the Dow advance…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.23..down 3 basis points and did not buy the Dow advance.

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1187 ( DOWN 17   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:105.99 DOWN .116 (YEN UP 12 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.61 UP 7 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2139 DOWN 1  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.4836

 

 

the Russian rouble 65/07   UP 0.27 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 27 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3227 UP 87 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0451  (ONSHORE)/DEADLY

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0765 (OFFSHORE) .DEADLY

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.56%

 

The Dow closed UP 317.12 POINTS OR 1.43%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 176.33 POINTS OR 2.24%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.53 CLOSED DOWN .44

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.184%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks, Bonds, & Gold Gain As Easing Hopes Hide Global Risks

Another buyback-sponsored surge in stocks met with gains in bonds and bullion…

Once again all eyes were on the yuan fix overnight which was set weaker than 7/USD for the first time since 2008, but was slightly stronger than expected (and thus interpreted as China seeking stability)..

Chinese stocks managed modest gains only again after the fix (and better than expected trade data), but remain well in the red for the week…

Source: Bloomberg

European markets surged intraday with France’s CAC40 back into the green for the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Swissy was safe-haven bid against the Euro as Italian politics reared its ugly head again…

Source: Bloomberg

US Equity markets were ramped back to unchanged on the week…

Small Caps and Nasdaq outperformed on the day…

Dow futures have retraced Fib 61.8% of the post-Powell plunge…

 

3rd day of a huge short squeeze…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Kraft Heinz crashed to record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

 

BYND was battered back below its Secondary offering price

 

VIX dropped back to a 16 handle today..

 

Stocks and bond yields dramatically decoupled this afternoon…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields surged early on but between the Italian political news and better-than-expected tail in the 30Y auction, yield tumbled back lower in the afternoon… and are still dramatically lower on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

2Y underperformed, flattening the curve modestly (and a new cycle low in 2s10s)…

Source: Bloomberg

It was another large range day for bonds though (11bps in 30Y after the longest-duration auction ever)…

Source: Bloomberg

Mirroring yesterday’s yield plunge and surge…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar Index ended the day lower, but remained in the narrow range of the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were lower on the day with Bitcoin still the week’s biggest gainer…

Source: Bloomberg

Another failed attempt at $12k overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI bounced back today on the heels of more chatter from Saudi on stem price drops (and hope of another trade truce with China)…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices surged over 3% today, extending yesterday’s Saudi bounce gains…

 

 

Iron Ore prices continue to plummet…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold managed gains as it surged back higher on the auction/Italian headlines…

 

And finally, with today’s re-plunge in TSY yields (and the likely shift in Bund yields due to Italy crisis), negative-yielding debt debacles are leading gold higher…

Source: Bloomberg

And as a quick reminder, Gold remains the biggest winner since The FOMC meeting and stocks worst…

So on the week: Stocks are unchanged, TSY yields are down 14bps, Gold is up 3%, and the dollar is fractionally lower. One of these things is not like the other!!

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

 

THIS IS A VERY IMPORTANT HARD DATA!! Wholesale inventories and wholesale sales growth both plunge and that will be a huge negative to GDP numbers.

(zerohedge)

Wholesale Sales Growth Plunges To Lowest Since 2016

Wholesale Trade sales and inventory data both disappointed in June with the former tumbling for the second month in a row and the latter well below expectations.

Wholesale Sales fell for the second straight month (down 0.3% MoM against +0.2% expectation), dragging the YoY change in wholesale sales to its weakest since Trump’s election in Nov 2016.

Source: Bloomberg

Wholesale Inventories were unchanged MoM (below the +0.2% expectation) as it seems maybe the big inventory build has capped out once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Is the inventory juicing over?

Source: Bloomberg

It certainly seems that “we built it” but “they did not come”

end
As I promised you, the federal budget deficit will approach 1.2 trillion for fiscal 2019.
It is now 867 billion deficit for 10 months..we have August and Sept yet to be added. 
(courtesy Market Watch)
U.S. July budget deficit widens to $120 billion, CBO estimatesAug 7, 2019 5:05 p.m. ETMarketWatchThe federal government’s July budget deficit widened to $120 billion, as both receipts and spending climbed for the month, the Congressional Budget Office estimated Wednesday. Receipts in July totaled $249 billion, or 11% more than those in the same month last year, with an increase in individual income and payroll taxes accounting for most of the change. Spending in July was $370 billion, as outlays increased on Social Security, Medicaid and military programs. For the fiscal year to date the deficit is $867 billion, or $184 billion more than the first 10 months of fiscal 2018. The government’s budget year runs from October through September.-END-

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Warren Buffet is badly bruised this morning as Kraft Heinz crashes are delayed results.  It seems that many people are moving away from processed foods.

(zerohedge)

Buffett Battered As Kraft Crashes After Delayed Results

Warren Buffett is waking up to yet another headache in his portfolio this morning as Kraft Heinz shares are collapsing (down 10% pre-market) after the company announced dismal results and more impairments.

For the first six months of the year, EBITDA slipped 15% in the company’s home market. Net sales fell too as the company struggles to boost growth with its portfolio of brands.

“The level of decline we experienced in the first half of this year is nothing we should find acceptable moving forward,” Chief Executive Officer Miguel Patricio said.

The new chief admitted the company has “significant work ahead of us to set our strategic priorities and change the trajectory of our business.” The maker of Kraft Macaroni and Cheese and Jell-O has struggled to keep up with changing consumer tastes for healthier, less processed foods. On Thursday, it reported two new impairment charges totaling $1.2 billion.

As a reminder, Bloomberg notes that in February, news of an SEC investigation, weak profit numbers and a $15.4 billion writedown raised existential questions about management’s strategy, which focused on cost-cutting. An internal investigation also revealed accounting issues and forced the company to delay its results and financial filings.

Additionally, the company announced in May that it received an additional subpoena related to its procurement practices, which forced it to restate earnings for the last the three years. Kraft Heinz has said the changes are not material.

Investors looking for more information on the subpoena will have to wait for the call for more.

end
Trump bashing the Fed again on the strong dollar. He wants it lower so his manufacturing industries can compete
(zerohedge)

Trump Slams “Always Wrong” Fed, Says “Not Thrilled At Strong Dollar”

President Trump took to Twitter today to make it clear he is not a “strong dollar” advocate:

“As your President, one would think that I would be thrilled with our very strong dollar. I am not!”

And the blame is pretty easy to find…

The Fed’s high interest rate level, in comparison to other countries, is keeping the dollar high, making it more difficult for our great manufacturers like Caterpillar, Boeing, John Deere, our car companies, & others, to compete on a level playing field.

And then finally, a call to action once again…

“With substantial Fed Cuts (there is no inflation) and no quantitative tightening, the dollar will make it possible for our companies to win against any competition.

We have the greatest companies in the world, there is nobody even close, but unfortunately the same cannot be said about our Federal Reserve.

They have called it wrong at every step of the way, and we are still winning. Can you imagine what would happen if they actually called it right?”

While the dollar did initially dip on the tweets, it quickly reverted back higher…

We’re gonna need direct intervention, Don!

END

This is going to be interesting: Trump now readies an executive order cracking down hard on social media censorship of conservatives

(Michael Snyder)

President Trump Readies Executive Order To Crack-Down Hard On Social Media Censorship Of Conservatives

UpdateThe Hill reports that National Republican groups announced Thursday that they would halt spending money to advertise on Twitter after the social media site locked Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) campaign account this week.

The move from the House and Senate GOP campaign arms, as well as the Republican National Committee (RNC), marks an escalation in the conservative battle against the country’s largest tech companies, which they claim routinely censor right-wing voices. Critics have insisted there is little evidence to substantiate those claims beyond individual anecdotes.

“Twitter’s hostile actions toward Leader McConnell’s campaign are outrageous and we will not tolerate it,” Jesse Hunt, a spokesman with the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), said in a statement to The Hill.

“The NRSC will suspend all spending with Twitter until further notice. We will not spend our resources on a platform that silences conservatives.”

*  *  *

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

It appears that President Trump is getting ready to bring down the hammer on the big social media companies.

According to Politico, the Trump administration is in the process of drafting an executive order that will “tackle Silicon Valley’s alleged anti-conservative bias”.  And it is very much in President Trump’s own self-interest to do this.  Social media played a key role in helping him win in 2016, but since that time we have seen an unprecedented wave of censorship on the major social media platforms, and most of that censorship has been directed at conservative voices.  If President Trump doesn’t do something, it is hard to see how he will win in 2020, and of course that is precisely what the leftist executives at the big social media companies want.

Ultimately, it would take an act of Congress to do everything that needs to be done, but President Trump should be applauded for trying to do what he can on his own.  Apparently Politico was able to speak to three separate sources that are familiar with the drafting of this new executive order, and after speaking to all of them Politico came to the conclusion that the Trump administration is very serious about “wielding the federal government’s power against Silicon Valley”

The White House is circulating drafts of a proposed executive order that would address allegations of anti-conservative bias by social media companies, according to a White House official and two other people familiar with the matter — a month after President Donald Trump pledged to explore “all regulatory and legislative solutions” on the issue.

None of the three would describe the contents of the order, which one person cautioned has already taken many different forms and remains in flux. But its existence, and the deliberations surrounding it, are evidence that the administration is taking a serious look at wielding the federal government’s power against Silicon Valley.

It is not clear if such an executive order would hold up in court, and undoubtedly there will be legal challenges right away.  Of course those legal challenges will take a long time to play out, because we all know how quickly our legal system moves.

But for the short-term, what really matters is what effect this will have on the behavior of the big social media companies.  The goal should be to scare them into doing the right thing, and hopefully the wording of this executive order will be as forceful as possible.

Since some of these big tech companies have contracts with the federal government, in his executive order Trump could try to prohibit federal contractors from discriminating against customers based on their political views.  A similar approach has been attempted a couple of times before

One potential approach could involve using the government’s leverage over federal contractors, a tactic the Obama administration used to advance LGBT rights. A 2014 executive order prohibited federal contractors from discriminating against workers on the basis of sexual orientation or gender identity.

Trump earlier this year signed an executive order meant to promote free speech on college campuses by requiring schools to agree to promote free inquiry in order to receive federal research funding — something the schools were already supposed to do.

We’ll see what happens, but hopefully Trump can get this executive order issued quickly, because the 2020 election season has already begun.

Of course liberals are upset about this potential executive order, and many of them continue to insist that conservatives are not being specifically targeted by the social media companies.  For example, just check out this excerpt from a Vox article

As Recode and other outlets have reported, there has been no evidence to prove that companies such as Google and Twitter have anti-conservative bias baked into their products. Regardless, the president and Republican lawmakers have continued to make such claims, emboldened in part by a recent claim by a former Google engineer that he was fired for his conservative political views. (Google says the employee was fired for misusing company equipment; other reports indicate that he shared emails internally in which he defended white supremacist groups.)

Seriously?

Because of what I do, I have connections throughout the conservative media, and just about everyone I know has been censored, banned, shadowbanned or deplatformed in some way, shape or form.  Over the past two and a half years we have witnessed the greatest purge in the history of the Internet, and it has been absolutely brutal.

Some conservative voices are still able to use social media, but the heavy hand of censorship is always present.  For example, every time Dr. Michael Brown posts a video on YouTube, it is immediately “flagged as unsuitable for most advertisers”

To this moment, the instant one of my YouTube videos is posted—and I mean the very instant—it gets flagged as unsuitable for most advertisers, which we then have to contest by calling for a manual review. At that point, you genuinely have no idea what the reviewer will decide.

Of course other conservative voices have been targeted for elimination from social media altogether.  Mike Adams of Natural News is an incredibly genuine guy and one of the most articulate conservative voices on the entire Internet, and he has been deplatformed by just about every social media platform that exists

In response to a coordinated, heavily-funded smear campaign against Natural News and myself, the Health Ranger, Facebook has now permanently banned Natural News from posting content. The channel name that has been banned is Facebook.com/healthranger, which was our primary channel reaching over 2.5 million people.

This is on top of the permanent bans of Natural News content from Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest, Google News, Apple and other techno-fascists that now represent the greatest threat to human freedom the world has ever seen.

There is no reason why Mike Adams should have ever been banned by anyone.  I have had the opportunity to sit down with him in person, and he is someone that cares deeply for America and for those around him.  What the big social media companies have done to him is absolutely disgusting.

But of course he is far from alone.  One study found that since the 2016 presidential election, social media traffic to a group of some of the most conservative websites on the Internet was down by 93 percent.  You can find the full study right here, and it is definitely worth reading.

In the end, it is very simple.  The leftists that run the big social media companies hate what we believe, and they don’t want us to get the truth out.  The don’t believe in a free marketplace of ideas, because their ideas always lose.

So the only way that they can win is by shutting us up, and that is precisely what they have been attempting to do.

The social media giants built multi-billion dollar empires by giving everyone a voice, but now that they have such a dominant position on the Internet they have decided that many prominent conservative voices should be completely silenced.

They want to control what ideas people are exposed to, thus shaping the overall direction of the country as a whole.

If they are allowed to get away with it, they will greatly alter the political future of America far beyond the 2020 election.

Something needs to be done immediately, and so let us hope that President Trump gives this executive order some really strong teeth.

END
Full scale war has just erupted as Trump will hold off on a decision on licenses for USA companies doing business with Huawei. American companies need a special license to supply Huawei and Trump is just not going to give to them. The yuan tanks, the futures have just tanked..
(courtesy zerohedge)

Nasdaq, Yuan Tumble After US Pulls Huawei Licenses

 

US equity markets are tumbling after hours following reports from Bloomberg that, according to people familiar with the matter, The White House is holding off on a decision about licenses for U.S. companies to restart business with Huawei after Beijing said it was halting purchases of U.S. farming goods.

American businesses require a special license to supply goods to Huawei after the U.S. added the Chinese telecommunications giant to a trade blacklist in May over national-security concerns. There are reportedly over 50 requests that are pending, but more notably this is yet another clear escalation in what everyone hoped was a short-term ‘stablization’ in tensions between China and US.

As a reminder, Trump said last week there were no plans to reverse the decision he made in Japan to allow more sales by U.S. suppliers of non-sensitive products to Huawei. He said the issue of Huawei is not related to the trade talks.

 

So much for that!

Futures are closed but QQQ (Nasdaq ETF) is down notably on the news…

Yuan also dropped on the news, erasing last night’s Fix gains…

So all eyes will once again be on the Fix tonight to see if China retaliates to the US retaliation.

zerohedge@zerohedge

6.999 or 7.0999

View image on Twitter
end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Mifsud is the genesis of the Russian collusion hoax and no doubt that he is a USA asset.  This will once and for all prove that this whole affair was nothing but a hoax

(Gates /Epoch Times)

The Mainstream Media Wants The Mifsud Story To Just Go Away

Authored by Brian Cates via The Epoch Times,

While many mainstream media journalists have been spinning fantasies for more than two years, based on Russian collusion stories being handed to them by anonymous sources, crack reporter John Solomon of The Hill has been pursuing real leads and uncovering actual evidence.

Now, Solomon is reporting that an audiotape containing professor Joseph Mifsud’s deposition has been given to both U.S. Attorney John Durham’s investigators and to the Senate Judiciary Committee.

“I can report absolutely that the Durham investigators have now obtained an audiotape deposition of Joseph Mifsud, where he describes his work, why he targeted George Papadopoulos, who directed him to do that, what directions he was given, and why he set that entire process of introducing Papadopoulos to Russia in motion in March of 2016, which is really the flashpoint the starting point of this whole Russia collusion narrative,” Solomon told Fox News’ Sean Hannity.

“I can also confirm that the Senate Judiciary Committee has also obtained the same deposition,” he said.

Mifsud, who I have written about extensively in previous columnsis the key that turns the lock to the lid of this Pandora’s box that we refer to as “Spygate.”

So I’m wondering why Solomon appears to be the only mainstream reporter pursuing this Mifsud story.

I suspect it’s because many DNC Media outlets, after having fallen deeply and passionately in love with the Trump-Russia collusion hoax, are reluctant to call attention to something that would be the final nail in its coffin.

The last thing the mainstream media wants right now would be for Mifsud to go on the record with both Durham’s investigative team and with Congress to say he was working for the FBI and was only pretending to be a Russian agent.

If Mifsud was an FBI asset sent to entrap Papadopoulos, then there are no real Russian agents anywhere in this entire Trump-Russia collusion story.

Foreign policy advisor to US President Donald Trump’s election campaign, George Papadopoulos goes through security at the US District Court for his sentencing in Washington, DC on Sept. 7, 2018. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images)

Ponder what that means for a minute.

You can’t save the Russian collusion narrative, if you can’t find any real Russians anywhere in the story. The FBI under James Comey will then be seen as having engaged in an operation to entrap people, and “Russian agents” turn out to be fakes working for the FBI and who were making fake offers of Russian help to the Trump campaign.

Some of these news media outlets are still – at this late date – claiming there’s some life left in the Russian collusion narrative. Mifsud is literally the last dying hope for these people that somewhere in all of this there is a real Russian asset and real collusion. They literally need Mifsud to be a real asset of the Putin government. And if Mifsud goes on the record to officially affirm he was working for the FBI, then the media’s last dying hope is gone forever.

To hear the mainstream media tell it, Mifsud turning out to be a fake Russian agent working for the FBI is a “conspiracy theory” created by “right-wing zealots” such as Reps. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio).

To have to admit that the story was actually right, while they themselves were still peddling the Trump-Russia collusion hoax, would be a most bitter pill for many of these ‘legitimate’ news outlets to swallow.

Which likely explains why Solomon appears to be just about the only mainstream reporter pursuing the Mifsud story. If there are any other major news outlet reporters out there avidly pursuing the facts about Mifsud and his reported contacts and testimony to Justice Department investigators, they’re being pretty quiet about it.

What are the mainstream news reporters who are ignoring the Mifsud story telling themselves, anyway?

“I can’t pursue this new information on Mifsud, because it’s taking the story where I don’t want it to go!”?

That’s a thought process that happens only to a political activist disguised as a reporter. No real reporter would ever think that way.

And yet when it comes to recent developments about Mifsud, a key player in this Trump-Russia collusion narrative, many mainstream reporters appear indifferent at best, or outrightly hostile at worst to these latest developments.

While many of these mainstream media reporters have been desperately trying to find some way to save the Trump/Russian collusion narrative, the last thing they want to have to report is that the supposed key Russian agent that started this whole Spygate thing wasn’t really a Russian agent, but was instead an FBI asset pretending to be a Russian agent.

These selfsame media reporters have spent more than two years mocking the idea that Mifsud is an FBI asset as something straight out of the right-wing fever swamp of convoluted nonsense conspiracy theories. This is why so many political activists masquerading as journalists are desperately hoping that somehow the Mifsud story will just go away and die on its own.

My instinct says they’re going to be massively disappointed soon.

end

One complete joke:  Now McCabe sues the Dept of Justice and the FBI over his firing

(zerohedge)

Andrew McCabe Sues DOJ, FBI Over “Politically Motivated Firing” 

Former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe – flush with cash after a GoFundMe campaign raised $540,000, is the second former high-ranking FBI official to sue the Justice Department and FBI this week for what he describes as a “politically motivated firing” just days before he was set to retire with full benefits.

The lawsuit describes former Attorney General Jeff Sessions and FBI Director Christopher Wray as “Trump’s personal enforcers,” who catered “to Trump’s unlawful whims instead of honoring their oaths to uphold the Constitution.

He also got a bit snarky:

 

McCabe was fired after the DOJ’s Inspector General issued a criminal referral based on findings that he “made an unauthorized disclosure to the news media and lacked candor – including under oath – on multiple occasions.”

Specifically, McCabe authorized an F.B.I. spokesman and attorney to tell Devlin Barrett of the Wall St. Journal, just days before the 2016 election, that the FBI had not put the brakes on a separate investigation into the Clinton Foundation – at a time in which McCabe was coming under fire for his wife taking a $467,500 campaign contribution from Clinton proxy pal, Terry McAuliffe.

Then he lied about it to the inspector general four times.

In his defense, McCabe said said that his boss – former FBI Director James Comey, knew about and authorized the leak.

Comey, in response, called McCabe a liar on The View, after host Megan McCain asked how he thought the public was supposed to have “confidence” in the FBI amid revelations that McCabe lied about the leak.

It’s not okay. The McCabe case illustrates what an organization committed to the truth looks like,” Comey said. “I ordered that investigation.

Comey then appeared to try and frame McCabe as a “good person” despite all the lying.

Good people lie. I think I’m a good person, where I have lied,” Comey said. “I still believe Andrew McCabe is a good person but the inspector general found he lied,” noting that there are “severe consequences” within the DOJ for doing so.

McCabe’s lawsuit: 

Earlier this week, former FBI counterterrorism agent Peter Strzok sued the FBI, DOJ, Barr and Wray for caving to “unrelenting pressure” from President Trump.

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

‘Scary’ German output figures propel recession fears

Industrial output dropped by 1.5% on the month [June] – a far steeper decline than the 0.4% fall forecast…In the second quarter as a whole, industrial output fell by 1.8% on the quarter…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-economy-industrial-output-idUSKCN1UX0JQ

At first, ESUs and European stocks rallied on the dismal, recessionary German IP data – because it implied central banks would have to ease even more.  However, by midday in Europe, the tone changed.

The fear of global recession drove oil to a 5% loss; stocks plunged while bonds and gold soared.

Trump went after the Fed, again, to no avail.  DJT’s begging and bullying the Fed to cut rates is losing its ability to move stocks.

@realDonaldTrump: “Three more Central Banks cut rates.” Our problem is not China – We are stronger than ever, money is pouring into the U.S. while China is losing companies by the thousands to other countries, and their currency is under siege – Our problem is a Federal Reserve that is too proud to admit their mistake of acting too fast and tightening too much (and that I was right!). They must Cut Rates bigger and faster, and stop their ridiculous quantitative tightening NOW. Yield curve is at too wide a margin, and no inflation! Incompetence is a terrible thing to watch, especially when things could be taken care of sooo easily. We will WIN anyway, but it would be much easier if the Fed understood, which they don’t, that we are competing against other countries, all of whom want to do well at our expense!

The big problem is that Bernanke and Yellen, to boost Obama, kept rates too low for too long – and Bernanke implemented QE 3 two months before the 2012 Election.  QE 3 was an egregious breach of the Fed policy of avoiding impact actions within six months of an election.  The cleanup for Bernanke and Yellen was thrust on Powell.  This is a thankless task that will cause pain, no matter how he proceeds.  Trump is livid with this predicament, a situation he warned would happen due to Ben and Janet.

Trump chastised the Fed for keeping rates too long several times during Obama’s latter days.  Now, Powell and Trump have to suffer the ill effects of past Fed sins.  The Obama Fed’s politically-inspired actions are a prime reason for Trump’s incessant Fed bashing.  DJT clearly believes that the Fed was intentionally stooging for Obama in 2012 and thereafter.  Ergo, DJT will continue to bash the Fed.

TRUMP: Janet Yellen should be ‘ashamed’ of what she’s doing to the country Sept. 16, 2016

By keeping interest rates low, the Fed has created a “false stock market,” Trump argued…Trump said rates are being kept lower to bolster Obama’s legacy. “Any increase at all will be a very, very small increase because they want to keep the market up so Obama goes out and let the new guy … raise interest rates … and watch what happens in the stock market… [Obama] wants to go out. He wants to play golf for the rest of this life. And he doesn’t care what’s going to happen after January.”…

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/12/trump-says-fed-chief-yellen-should-be-ashamed.html

Trump and the Truth: The Interest-Rate Flip-Flop    Sept. 15, 2016

On Thursday, at the Economic Club of New York, Trump was asked specifically how he would advise the Fed, and his answer was filled with as much narcissism and nonsense as any he had given before. “Well, as a real-estate person, I always like low interest rates, of course,” he said. “Obama wants to go, he wants to play golf, and he wants to leave. He doesn’t want to have any stock-market disruptions. . . . I think the Fed is totally being controlled politically.” He concluded, “I really believe if it was a political decision or the right decision, they’re going to go with the political decision every time.”

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/trump-and-the-truth-the-interest-rate-flip-flop

Trump directly attacks Fed Chairman Powell, saying ‘Obama had zero’ interest rates  10/24/18

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/trump-directly-attacks-fed-chairman-powell-saying-obama-had-zero-interest-rates/ar-BBOO45e

When You Get an Email like This from the Fed, It May Be Time to Panic

The main reason why the Fed should be concerned, is that according to a research report from BofA’s Marc Cabana which we used extensively in the report, the Fed may be forced to launch Quantitative Easing as soon as Q4 to provide the market with the much needed liquidity, or else suffer the consequences of a major liquidity shortage.

     Well, it appears that the Fed paid attention, because moments ago we received an email from a Federal Reserve researcher which should make everyone very, very nervous. Specifically, the “rather urgent request” seeks the full Cabana report whose gist, as noted above, is that the Fed will have to launch QE4 in very short notice to offset the upcoming liquidity drain…

     Based on the Fed’s email, we wonder if it means the Fed is now seriously contemplating following through on Cabana’s recommendation, and if so, does the market crash first, or is it about to price in QE4 and soar. We expect to find out very soon.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-07/when-you-get-email-fed-it-may-be-time-panic

The early plunge in the US ended 15 minutes after the NYSE open.  A ‘V’ rally appeared.  ESUs soared from 2823.25 to 2867.50 in 65 minutes.  A ‘V’ rally with no impact news is usually the sign of impact buying (intentionally juicing stocks/ESUs) or intervention.

After the late morning peak, ESUs and stocks rolled over into a slow, persistent decline until Chicago Fed President Evans issued verbal intervention at midday.  Evans said the inflation outlook alone calls for more accommodation; trade is creating economic headwinds that call for cutting rates further; there are limits to how preemptively policy makers can respond to negative risk; GDP should be around 2.25% this year; he sees two 25bp rate cuts this year and “It’s a very difficult time right now: to forecast the economy due to trade uncertainties.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-evans-says-trade-headwinds-could-justify-additional-rate-cuts-11565194500?mod=e2twcb

The Evans rally was boosted when the US 10-year note auction went poorly.  The US 30-year declined 2 3/4 points from its high.  When bonds drop, some traders reflexively buy ESUs and stocks.  The bond market tumble ignited a manic afternoon rally.  Frantic ESU short covering from traders and money managers playing the defensive asset allocation (short ESUs/Long USUs) was a huge factor.

China conduit @HuXijin_GT: Washington’s repeated bullying has made it meaningless to continue trade talks in short run. China is mobilizing internally to fight firmly with the US, and all official media is participating in the mobilization. China and the US are caught in a stalemate worse than last round.

@Jkylebass: If the CEO of HSBC has been lending $400b USD to china to help them prop up their Monopoly money, that accounts for half of the reserves we have calculated that have already run. The Chinese bank forward position on CNH is another $450 billion. Their currency is a HOUSE OF CARD

American farmers say China can’t meet its future demand for soybeans without the US

“What China has been able to accomplish, by putting tariffs on U.S. soybeans, is basically to put our soybeans on sale relative to Brazil,” he said. “But they can’t effectively eliminate demand for U.S. soybeans.”… “What we’ve seen is the U.S. has been really successful in growing its exports to Europe,” he said. “They’ve been close to 10 million tons over the past year, and that’s a level that hasn’t been seen since the mid-1990s.” U.S. soybean exports to Mexico have also increased over the past two years…

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-farmers-say-china-cant-meet-its-future-demand-for-soybeans-without-the-us-230217151.html

Sex Scandal Rocks FBI: Top Agents under Fire for Reported Sexual Affairs with CNN Reporters

High-level FBI officials complained to the highest executive offices of the FBI that Strzok and more top agents were engaged in sexual relationships with CNN’s on-air personnel. Those high-ranking sources say top management did not investigate the reports and the relationships continued… FBI insiders believe classified and sensitive intelligence was leaked to CNN as a byproduct of agents engaged in sexual affairs… https://truepundit.com/sex-scandal-rocks-fbi-top-agents-under-fire-for-reported-sexual-affairs-with-cnn-reporters/

Top FBI Deputy Assistant Director Who Leaked To Media Revealed: DOJ Declined Prosecution

The decision by the Department of Justice to decline prosecution was made before William Barr was Attorney General… https://saraacarter.com/top-fbi-deputy-assistant-director-who-leaked-to-media-revealed-former-doj-declined-prosecution/

Chicago Tribune’s top columnist John Kass: Weaponizing the dead of El Paso and Dayton

But what of the mass shootings in Chicago, the 55 people shot over the weekend?… The victims, and in all likelihood the shooters, are black. And Democratic politicians find no political advantage in weaponizing the victims of everyday street violence in a Democratic town… In political terms it’s all about those white boys with their guns.

   Democrats wrap them around Trump’s neck, focusing on a key voter block, suburban white women with those “Hate Has No Home Here” signs. For two years, the left and media have shrieked unproven allegations about Trump and collusion with Russia. Now that has faded, Democrats adeptly find themselves on comfortable, familiar ground: race…

https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/john-kass/ct-trump-shootings-politics-chicago-kass-20190807-vjr664o3hrer5nx226d7uocgsa-story.html

Tucker Carlson: ‘Conspiracy Theory’ of White Supremacist Threat is the New ‘Russia Hoax’

https://bigleaguepolitics.com/tucker-carlson-conspiracy-theory-of-white-supremacist-threat-is-the-new-russia-hoax/

An ex-FBI assistant director says numerology links Trump’s decision to fly flags at half-staff to Neo-Nazism: “The numbers 88 are very significant in neo-Nazi and white supremacy movement. Why? Because the letter ‘H’ is the eighth letter of the alphabet, and to them the numbers 88 together stand for ‘Heil Hitler.’ So we’re going to be raising the flag back up at dusk on 8/8,”… [We need a ruling on Trump Derangement Syndrome.] https://dailycaller.com/2019/08/06/msnbc-analyst-numerology-trump-flags/

The latest Quinnipiac poll shows Kamala Harris’ support has dropped from 20% to 7%.

George Soros’s secret 2016 access to State exposes ‘big money’ hypocrisy of Democrats

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/456619-george-soross-secret-2016-access-to-state-exposes-big-money-hypocrisy-of-democrats

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

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