AUGUST 16/OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY GOLD AND SILVER RAID ON A FRIDAY/GOLD DOWN $7.35 TO $1513.20//SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TO $17.15//OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER FALLS AT THE COMEX BY TIME DESPITE NO REAL APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN PRICE: WE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER //QUEUE JUMPING CONTINUES FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AT THE COMEX//IN A NON DELIVERY MONTH A MASSIVE 10 MILLION OZ OF SILVER IS STANDING FOR DELIVERY/GERMANY MAY GO INTO DEFICIT SPENDING TO STIMULATE THE ECONOMY//FOUR MAJOR ENTITIES IN TROUBLE THIS WEEK i) HSBC ii) ARGENTINA iii) DEUTSCHE BANK iv) GENERAL ELECTRIC// LOTS OFSWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/?

GOLD:$1513.20 DOWN $7.35(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver: $17.15 DOWN 9 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1512.50

 

silver:  $17.12

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING  13/28

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,519.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/15/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 08/19/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 6
661 C JP MORGAN 13
686 C INTL FCSTONE 4 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 10 3
800 C MAREX SPEC 14
880 H CITIGROUP 5
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 28 28
MONTH TO DATE: 5,229

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  AUGUST CONTRACT: 28 NOTICE(S) FOR 2800 OZ (0.08709 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  5229 NOTICES FOR 522,900 OZ  (16.2643 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR AUGUST

 

 

47 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 235,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1993 for   9,965,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10,070 down 226 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10400 UP 110

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE  SIZED 4292 CONTRACTS FROM 233,095 DOWN TO 228,803… DESPITE THE TINY 2 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM THAT  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR AUGUST, 0 FOR SEPT 874, DEC, 200 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1074 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1074 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1074 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 5.37 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 2 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

9.975   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

WE HAD ATTEMPTED COVERING OF BANKER SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX YESTERDAY WITH SOME SUCCESS..AND WE HAD NO APPRECIABLE SPREADING ACCUMULATION.

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER FOR SILVER.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF AUGUST:

23,404 CONTRACTS (FOR 12 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 23,404 CONTRACTS) OR 117.02 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1950 CONTRACTS OR 9.7517 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  117.02 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 16.71% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1429.53   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3736, DESPITE THE TINY 2 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1074 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE LOST AN ATMOSPHERIC  SIZED: 3218 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1074 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 4292  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH JUST A 2 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.24 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! THERE IS ONLY ONE ANSWER AS TO WHAT HAPPENED: MASSIVE BANKER SHORT COVERING..BANKERS HAVE CAPITULATED!!

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.146 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 163% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 47 NOTICE(S) FOR 235,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 9.975 MILLION OZ
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6979 CONTRACTS, TO 605,885 ACCOMPANYING THE  $3.55 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY//THE SPREADING ACCUMULATION OPERATION HAS NOW COMMENCED  ONLY FOR SILVER AND LITTLE WAS ACCOMPLISHED IN THAT ENDEAVOUR TODAY….. THE LIQUIDATION( AND ACCUMULATION) PHASE FOR COMEX OI GOLD HAS NOW STOPPED FOR THE AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH /

 

 

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5939 CONTRACTS:

AUGUST 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  5939 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 605885,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,918 CONTRACTS: 6979 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 5939 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 12,918 CONTRACTS OR 1,291,800 OZ OR 40.41 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GOOD GAIN OF $3.55 IN GOLD TRADING….AND WITH THAT GOOD GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 40.41  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER TRYING TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE (HOWEVER IN SILVER, THE BANKERS WERE IN SHEAR FRIGHT AS THEY CONTINUED ON THEIR JOURNEY OF COVERING THEIR MASSIVE SILVER SHORTS)

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST : 138,195 CONTRACTS OR 13,819,500 oz OR 429.84 TONNES (12 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 11,516 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 429.84 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 429.84/3550 x 100% TONNES =12.10% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

(VOLUMES OF EFP’S ARE INCREASING IN GOLD)

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     3,940.53  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 6979 WITH THE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($3.55)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5939 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5939 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 12,918 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5939 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 6979 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 40.14 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE  GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.55 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED WITH SPREADING ACCUMULATION OF SILVER OI CONTRACTS IN THIS MONTH OF AUGUST BUT ZERO OCCURRED YESTERDAY.. ALL SPREADING ACTIVITY IN GOLD HAS STOPPED DURING THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  28 notice(s) filed upon for 2800 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN 7.35 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

 

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY:

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 4292 CONTRACTS from 233,095 DOWN TO 228,803 AND FURTHER FROM A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORDED HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET EXCEPT TODAY AS WE HAD A RISING PRICE..OUR SHORT DERIVATIVE BANKERS ARE NOW IN DEEP TROUBLE AS THEY ARE TERRIBLY OFFSIDE AND NEED ASSISTANCE FROM THE GOVERNMENT (FED) TO PROVIDE THE NECESSARY COLLATERAL TO CARRY THAT SHORT POSITION..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST, ALTHOUGH NEGLIGIBLE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY, AND THEY STOPPED ALL  SPREADING ACTIVITY  IN COMEX GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST….

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: I HAVE WAITED A LONG TIME TO SEE THIS: OUR BANKER FRIENDS HAVE NOW COMPLETELY CAPITULATED AND THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SILVER SHORTFALL..

 

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 874 ; FOR DEC.  200 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1074 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 4292 CONTRACTS TO THE 1074 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED LOSS OF 3218 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 16.09 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ ;AUGUST AT 9.740 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE TINY 2 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 1074 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.03 POINTS OR 0.28%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 239.76 POINTS OR 0.84%   /The Nikkei closed UP 13.16 POINTS OR 0.06%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .07%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0406 /Oil UP TO 55/40 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.09 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0406 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0469 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS PAST  7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

We have been highlighting Japan’s problems for years.  They now have the 10 year Japanese 10 yr bond yield greatly exceeding their target to .11.  To get the yield up they have decided to cut their purchase of 5 and 10 yr bonds

(zerohedge)

3C  CHINA

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Germany

Germany is very worried about its economy. It may go slightly into a deficit by going into debt. In the broad stream of things, this is small stuff

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

Bill Blain comments that 4 stocks could start a market crash. I will add a 5th:

1. HSBC

2.GE

3 Boeing

4. New IPO  We work

and 5th (Harvey) Deutsche bank

(courtesy Bill; Blain/Shard Capital)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Argentina

Everything is collapsing in Argentina:  investment funds, the Peso, Argentinian bonds..the whole enchalada

(zero hedge)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

a)The Martens are truly correct:  these 5 big banks with all of their derivatives hold the fate of the entire global financial system in their hands

(Pam and Russ Martens/Wall Street on Parade)

b)A good interview between Egon Von Greyerz..and Max Keiser..two smart cookies

(courtesy Egon Von Greyerz)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

a)Despite low interest rates, housing starts continue to plunge.  We are now witnessing a rental unit crash as well

(zerohedge)

b)Consumer confidence crashes!!

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)The USA just announces that a huge 19 million acres of farmland went un-planted this year.  Corn and Soybean planting is less than 60% and this means less food and less exports

(Michael Snyder)

b)Peter Schiff again warns on the “Great Recession:” which will jeopardize Trump’s re election efforts and put the entire globe in turmoil

(Mac Slavo.SHFTPlan.com.

c)My goodness!! this is very telling..Powell just issued a gag order against his Fed Presidents for speaking at any time re the economy. So much for transparency..must be very bad

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6979 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 605,885 ACCOMPANYING THE GAIN  OF $3.55 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5929 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR AUGUST; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 5939   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5939 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 12,918 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5939 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 6979 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE GOLD PRICE. WE EXPERIENCED ZERO SHORT COVERING IN GOLD AS  LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS TRYING THEIR LUCK ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND LOOKING FOR METAL. HOWEVER IN SILVER THEY CAPITULATED AS THEY ARE FRANTICALLY TRYING TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  12,918 CONTRACTS OR 1,291,800 OZ OR 40.19 TONNES.

 

We are now in the  active contract month of AUGUST and here the open interest stands at 1101 CONTRACTS as we LOST 730 contract.  We had 749notices filed yesterday so we SURPRISINGLY GAINED 19 contracts or 1900 ADDITIONAL oz of gold that will stand for delivery on this side of the pond.  We wish them luck finding any physical metal. By refusing to morph into London forwards, longs also received a fiat bonus for their efforts!!

 

The next non active month is September and here the OI ROSE by 202 contracts UP TO 3631.  The next active delivery month is October and here the OI rose by 1056 contracts  to 50,107.

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 28 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  2800 OZ. (0.08709 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 4292 CONTRACTS FROM 233,095 UP TO 228,803 (AND FURTHER FROM A  NEW RECORD OI. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET AUGUST 22/ 244,196, CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S HUGE  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A TINY 2 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.  HERE WE HAVE 49 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 91 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 138 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED ANOTHER 47CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 235,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO  MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING DWINDLING PHYSICAL SUPPLIES ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..  THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 5622 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 108,186 CONTRACTS. OCTOBER LOST ANOTHER 9 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 177.  NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 1577 CONTRACTS UP TO 86,374.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 47 notice(s) filed for 235,000 OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 189,834  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  454,678  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  AUGUST/GOLD

AUGUST 16/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
225.05 oz
7 kilobars
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

163,166.25 oz

HSBC

Manfra

 

5,000 kilobars for HSBC

and 75 kilobars for Manfra

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
28 notice(s)
 2800 OZ
(0.09709 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2400 contracts
(107300 oz)
3.3374 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5229 notices
522900 OZ
16.2643 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 3 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into HSBC 160,755.000 oz   5,000 kilobars

iii) Into Manfra:  2411.25 oz  75 kilobars

 

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 163,166.25  oz 5075 kilobars

 

Today: considerable gold enters the comex but it was a phony

it was paper gold, or hypothecated paper gold

comex is one big fraud.

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

i) Out of Scotia: 225.05 oz (7 kilobars)

also phony

 

total gold withdrawals; 225.05 oz  oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today
FOR THE AUGUST 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 28 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 13 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5229) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  AUGUST. (1101 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (28 x 100 oz per contract) equals 630,200 OZ OR 19.601 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of AUGUST

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (5229 x 100 oz)  + (1101)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (28 x 100 oz )which equals 630,200 oz standing OR 19.601. TONNES in this  active delivery month of AUGUST.

We SURPRISINGLY GAINED 19  contracts or an additional 1900 oz will  stand as these guys refused to  morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. They will try their luck on this side of the pond trying to locate some physical metal.

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 18.2606 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 19.601  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING//JUDGING BY THE GOOD SIZE OF THE COMEX NOTICES FILED TODAY, AND THE 19 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMPING: IT LOOKS LIKE SOMEBODY WAS WILLING TO TAKE ON THE CROOKS AT THE COMEX.

.

total registered or dealer gold:  587,078.904 oz or  18.2606 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,013,410.086 oz 249.26 tonnes

 

IN THE LAST 35 MONTHS 110 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

 

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
AUGUST 16 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 8992.434 oz
CNT
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
47
CONTRACT(S)
(235,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2 contracts
 10,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1993 contracts

9,965,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT:  2878.300 oz

ii) Out of Delaware:  6114.134 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 8,992.434  oz

 

we had 0 adjustment :

 

total dealer silver:  92.835 million

total dealer + customer silver:  312.608 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the AUGUST 2019. contract month is represented by 47 contract(s) FOR 235,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1993 x 5,000 oz = 9,965,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST. (49) and the number of notices served upon today (47) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the AUGUST/2019 contract month: 1993 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (49)- number of notices served upon today (47)x 5000 oz equals 9,975,000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month.  

 

WE GAINED A STRONG 47 CONTRACTS  AS THE DEALERS BYPASSED THOSE STANDING TRYING TO GRAB WHATEVER SILVER THEY CAN. WE THUS HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 47 CONTRACTS OR 235,000 ADDITIONAL OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THESE GUYS REFUSED AN OFFER FROM THE BANKERS TO ROLL TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AND THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS FOR NOT ACCEPTING THIS CROOKED CONTRACT.BOTH COMEX GOLD AND SILVER ARE UNDER ATTACK FOR PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS THE TRUE DEFINITION OF QUEUE JUMPING BY THE BANKERS AS THEY SATISFY THEIR URGENT NEEDS OVER THE NEEDS OF INVESTORS. TONIGHT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE VERY SCARED WITH THE MOUNTING PRESSURE OF PHYSICAL DELIVERIES IN SILVER WEIGHING ON THEIR POOR LITTLE HEADS. WE WITNESSED AGAIN MASSIVE BANKER SHORT COVERING.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 47 notice(s) filed for 235,000 OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  44,482 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 112,718 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 112,718 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 564 million  OZ 80.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -0.32% ((AUGUST 15/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.04% to NAV (AUGUST 15/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -/32%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.98 TRADING 14.49/DISCOUNT 3.24

 

 

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WE GOT BACK 7.63 TONNES OUT OF 11.11 TONNES LOST ON WEDNESDAY( A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY///INVENTORY RISES TO 824.89 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.50: A HUGE INVENTORY WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD LEAVES THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 818.14 TONNES

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00: A MASSIVE  DEPOSIT OF 11.44 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 814.62

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.55 TODAY: A BIG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.81 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.18 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY: A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.37 TONNES

JULY 16: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 15: WITH GOLD UP $1.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $5.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 11.WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

AUGUST 16/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 844.29 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 644 TRADING DAYS: 91.11 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 544- TRADING DAYS: A NET 75.43 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

AUGUST 16/: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 15/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/2019: WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 468000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 26.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:  A HUGE 1.03 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER LEAVES THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 357.183 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: ANOTHER MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.276 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 346.980 MILLION OZ

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.668 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.704 MILLION OZ//

JULY 17: WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 29 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.518 MILLION OZ/INTO THE SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.036 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16: WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY: 15  WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

 

AUGUST 16/2019:

 

Inventory 380.154 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.04/ and libor 6 month duration 2.01

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .03

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.88%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION:1.93

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.05

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Deutsche Falls To New Record Low Showing ‘Lehman Shock’ Contagion Risk

* Deutsche bank’s new record low at €5.80 underscores German and European banking contagion risk

* FTSE 100 opens slightly higher after trading delay of 90 minutes on trading trading services ‘issue’

* GE falls the most in 11 years after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron’

* Gold prices are marginally lower today but are currently set for another higher weekly close as safe-haven buying continues

* The wider economic, monetary and geopolitical backdrop will support safe haven assets and investors without an allocation to the precious metal should cost average into physical gold

News and Commentary

Gold heads for 3rd weekly gain on trade, growth concerns

Gold to Rise to $1,650 by 2Q 2020: UOB Private Bank

Deutsche Bank’s New Record Low Underscores European Banking’s Decline

German banks are in a much worse position than the rest of Europe – Citi

FTSE 100 opens after trading delay of 90 minutes on trading trading services ‘issue’

GE falls the most in 11 years after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron’

10-year Treasury yield falls to three-year low below 1.5%, 30-year rate declines to record low

Market plunge sheds harsh light on big banks and their derivatives counterparties

Nomura: Yesterday Was A Complete Rout, Raising Odds Of September “Lehman Shock”

“The End Of The World As We Know It” – China Going Nuclear Means There’s No Turning Back Now

Gold has been acting as a safe-haven – Ira Epstein

 

Gold in USD – Monthly – 10 Years

 

Listen and Watch Jim Rogers Interview Here

Gold Prices via LBMA (AM/ PM Fix – USD, GBP & EUR)

14-Aug-19 1500.35 1513.25, 1241.69 1253.73 & 1341.61 1356.17
13-Aug-19 1527.20 1498.40, 1265.90 1240.38 & 1363.48 1338.67
12-Aug-19 1501.95 1504.70, 1244.82 1243.63 & 1343.64 1341.74
09-Aug-19 1503.50 1497.70, 1242.19 1240.99 & 1342.02 1338.05
08-Aug-19 1497.40 1495.75, 1230.26 1234.14 & 1335.08 1335.70
07-Aug-19 1487.65 1506.05, 1225.82 1239.33 & 1330.11 1341.44
06-Aug-19 1461.85 1465.25, 1199.59 1201.21 & 1304.85 1311.11
05-Aug-19 1457.45 1465.25, 1199.92 1203.85 & 1307.92 1310.23
02-Aug-19 1436.05 1441.75, 1184.17 1187.28 & 1294.02 1298.44
01-Aug-19 1406.40 1406.80, 1161.12 1161.74 & 1273.35 1273.29

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ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

The Martens are truly correct:  these 5 big banks with all of their derivatives hold the fate of the entire global financial system in their hands

(Pam and Russ Martens/Wall Street on Parade)

Pam and Russ Martens: Market plunge sheds harsh light on big banks and their derivatives counterparties

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Thursday, August 15, 2019

As we’ve previously reported, five mega-banks on Wall Street hold the fate of the entire financial system of the United States in their crony, frequently soiled hands. Yesterday’s trading action clearly showed the ugly warts between those banks and their derivative counterparties in the insurance industry.

And even though their crony regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission, allows the banks to trade their own stocks in darkness in their own internal dark pools, someone else clearly got the upper hand yesterday.

… 

nation in such perilous hands — especially when those very same banks caused the greatest financial crash in 2008 since the Great Depression.Citigroup, the bank that received the largest government bailout in U.S. history in 2008, including a secret $2.5 trillion in almost zero-rate loans from the Federal Reserve, led the losses among the Wall Street mega-banks yesterday with a decline of 5.28%. Bank of America was next with a loss of 4.69%. Goldman Sachs lost 4.19% with JPMorgan Chase following on its heels with a decline of 4.15%. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

http://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/08/yesterdays-market-plunge-shines-ha…

* * *

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* * *

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http://www.gata.org/node/16

Wall Street on Parade

Yesterday’s Market Plunge Shines Harsh Light on Big Banks and their Derivative Counterparties

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: August 15, 2019 ~

As we’ve previously reported, five mega banks on Wall Street hold the fate of the entire financial system of the United States in their crony, frequently soiled hands. Yesterday’s trading action clearly showed the ugly warts between those banks and their derivative counterparties in the insurance industry. And even though their crony regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission, allows the banks to trade their own stocks in darkness in their own internal Dark Pools, someone else clearly got the upper hand yesterday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost a whopping 800 points or 3.05 percent but each of the five mega banks outpaced the Dow’s losses on a percentage basis. That’s not a good thing when Congress has left the fate of a nation in such perilous hands – especially when those very same banks caused the greatest financial crash in 2008 since the Great Depression.

Citigroup, the bank that received the largest government bailout in U.S. history in 2008, including a secret $2.5 trillion in almost zero rate loans from the Federal Reserve, led the losses among the Wall Street mega banks yesterday with a decline of 5.28 percent. Bank of America was next with a loss of 4.69 percent. Goldman Sachs lost 4.19 percent with JPMorgan Chase following on its heels with a decline of 4.15 percent.

Unlike the Dow and its four banking peers which continued their losses into the final hour of trading, Morgan Stanley’s stock mysteriously rallied beginning at 2:42 p.m. In a very non-typical fashion, Morgan Stanley had the best showing among the Big Five Wall Street banks, with a loss of 3.34 percent.

Morgan Stanley, it should be noted, owns three separate Dark Pools. A bank holding company, such as Morgan Stanley and the other four banks, which is allowed to own a Federally-insured, deposit tanking bank, tens of trillions of dollars in non-transparent derivatives, and also trade it and its peer banks’ stocks in a Dark Pool is an outrage to U.S. taxpayers who had a gun put to their heads to bail out these same banks in 2008. But being allowed to own three Dark Pools simultaneously shows just how unmoored from an honest financial system the U.S. has become.

Citigroup’s stock chart shows why the banks weren’t able to save themselves yesterday. Looking at the volume on Citigroup’s chart above shows that hedge funds or other big money players were very active in the first half hour of trading, from 9:30 a.m. to 10:00 a.m., then held their big ammunition until the last half hour of trading, from 3:30 p.m. to 4:00 p.m.

According to Bloomberg data, Citigroup’s average daily trading volume over the past 30 days of 13,973,364 more than doubled yesterday to 29,370,676.

Two other stocks now trade pretty much in tandem with the Wall Street mega banks on big down-draft days. Those companies are Prudential Financial and Lincoln National – both are insurance companies with significant counterparty exposure to Wall Street banks’ high-risk derivatives. Prudential Financial lost 3.80 percent while Lincoln National was down an outsized 4.74 percent yesterday.

But the really eyebrow-raising selloff occurred yesterday in the shares of the giant insurer, AIG. That’s the same AIG that had to be taken over by the Federal government in 2008, with a bailout that eventually topped out at $185 billion. At least half of that money was funneled out the back door of AIG to the Wall Street banks and their global counterparts who had derivative deals and security lending arrangements that were never properly collateralized by AIG. AIG’s shares shed 4.86 percent yesterday. (See Wall Street Has Placed a Derivatives Noose Around the U.S. Insurance Industry.)

Also coming as unwelcome news to rising questions about market integrity, is a report out this morning from Harry Markopolos, the forensic financial expert who pounded on the SEC’s door for years telling them that Bernie Madoff was likely running a Ponzi scheme. The SEC ignored his warnings. Today’s report from Markopolos calls the iconic General Electric company, a “bigger fraud than Enron.”

General Electric had been a component of the equally iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average for 111 years on a continuous basis until it was unceremoniously booted from the index in June of last year. (The decidedly non-industrial company, Walgreens, replaced GE.)

The report from Markopolos will also raise questions about the failure of the SEC to force companies to rotate their auditors and about the other companies being audited by KPMG. The accounting firm has been GE’s auditor for 109 years.

end

iii) Other physical stories:

A good interview between Egon Von Greyerz..and Max Keiser..two smart cookies

(courtesy Egon Von Greyerz)

 

EGON VON GREYERZ ON THE KEISER REPORT – “CENTRAL BANKS IN PANIC MODE”

August 16, 2019 by Egon von Greyerz

In this interview Max and Egon discuss the enormous pressures in the financial system and the coming stampede into gold. Also:

  • The final phase of the currency race to zero has just started
  • Massive energy in gold, built up over the last 6 years
  • Gold will break its all time high of $ 1920, without effort
  • Gold hit new all-time highs in many currencies. Now on its way to at least $10,000 or even $50,000
  • Central banks panicking over global banking system
  • Negative rates – Government bonds, world’s most risky investment
  • At some point, investors will dump overvalued bonds, resulting in hyperinflation and implosion of bond market
  • Dow Jones stock index, will face a vicious fall very soon and in years to come

THE INTERVIEW STARTS AT 12 MINS 40 SECONDS:

Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Managing Partner
Matterhorn Asset Management
Zurich, Switzerland
Phone: +41 44 213 62 45

-END-

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0406/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0469   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 8.03 POINTS OR 0.28%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 239.76 POINTS OR 0.84%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 13.16 POINTS OR 0.06%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.30/Euro FALLS TO 1.1079

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.23/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.33/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 55.40 and Brent: 59.09

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.71%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.39% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.06%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.10: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.96

3k Gold at $1513.80 silver at: 17.20   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 11/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.16

3m oil into the 55 dollar handle for WTI and 59 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.33 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9799 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0857 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.71%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.55% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.01%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6988..

US Futures Surge, Global Markets Rise Amid Lull In Bad News

In a quiet end to an extremely tumultuous week (pending one or more shocking Trump tweets) there were no overnight trade war tape bombs from China, no additional curve inversions even as more than half of the world’s yield curves are now inverted…

Jeffrey Kleintop

@JeffreyKleintop

Percentage of yield curves inverted around the world now over 50%

View image on Twitter

… and so US equity futures surged and European stocks and most Asian shares posted modest gains on Friday, while Treasuries pared some of their recent blistering advance, taking advantage of the rare moment of quiet, as expectations grew of further stimulus by central banks, offsetting worries about slowing economic growth which intensified this week as the the US 2s10s yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007.

S&P 500 futures pushed above prior day’s highs amid renewed trade optimism after U.S. President Donald Trump said a call is planned very soon with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

 

MSCI’s All Country World Index was up 0.2% on the day, although it was set for its third straight losing week, down 2.2%.

European shares rebounded from six-month lows, with the European Stoxx 600 index over 1% higher, drifting in low-volume trade in a morning devoid of fresh news flow or data. The Stoxx 600 Banks Index was one of Europe’s best-performing sectors today, gaining 1.1%, in contrast with other cyclical industries like autos and chemicals that lagged behind the broader market. Commerzbank was the biggest gainer in the index as the negative yield sentiment took a step back. The catalyst: the 10y Bund yield was slightly up Friday by 1bps as the benchmark’s bond is heading for the fifth weak of falling yields; somehow this was enough to launch a relief rally in Europe’s banks which have tumbled to near record low levels. Italian banks also among the top performers after the country’s market was closed for a holiday Thursday. The banks were also catching up on comments from ECB’s Olli Rehn about a potential “impactful and significant” stimulus package.

 

A technical glitch delayed the start of trading of the UK’s benchmark FTSE 100 and midcap stock indexes for almost two hours. It was the longest outage at one of the world’s top stock markets in eight years.

Earlier in the session, Asian shares were mostly higher, with Chinese stocks climbing and Korean shares dipping.

Treasuries drifted lower over Asia session and into early European session, paring some Thursday’s rally. Yields were up 0.5bp to 3.2bp across the curve in a bear steepening move with 2s10s wider by ~1bp and 5s30s by ~2bp; 10-year yields ~1.54% are cheaper by 1.5bp but remain towards richer end of 1.473% to 1.733% weekly range. In Europe, Bunds outperformed Treasuries, while gilts underperformed as money markets trim pricing on Bank of England easing; Chancellor Sajid Javid holds Brexit talks in Berlin later Friday.

To be sure, the bulk of the action this week was in the bond market, where with no trade war settlement in sight, investors hedged against a global slowdown by buying bonds. Yields on 30-year debt dropped to a record low 1.916% on Thursday, leaving them down 27 basis points for the week, the sharpest decline since mid-2012.

 

That means investors are willing to lend the government money for three decades for less than either the overnight rate or Libor. Which also means that all those who pegged their ARM mortgages to the 30Y instead of Libor are now winning.

Some analysts say the current bond market is a different beast than past markets and might not be sending a true recession signal: “The bond market may have got it wrong this time, but we would not dismiss the latest recession signals on grounds of distortions,” said Simon MacAdam, global economist at Capital Economics. “Rather, it is of some comfort for the world economy that unlike all previous U.S. yield curve inversions, the Fed has already begun loosening monetary policy this time.”

And so with the bond market screaming a recession is coming, the futures market is bracing for action from the Fed and the Fed Funds market now sees a one in three chance the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting, and see rates reaching just 1% by the end of next year.

On Thursday, the ECB’s Olli Rehn flagged the need for even stronger easing in September. Markets currently anticipate a cut in the ECB’s deposit rate of at least 10 basis points and a resumption of bond buying, sending German 10-year bund yields to a record low of ‑0.71%.

“The underlying concern and drivers such as a recession and the expectation for an aggressive policy response, fueled by Rehn’s comments yesterday, has given the bond market another boost at already elevated levels,” said Commerzbank rates strategist Rainer Guntermann.

Meanwhile, Mexico overnight joined the global easing tide and became the latest country to surprise with a rate cut, the first in five years. Canada – whose yield curve inverted by the most in nearly two decades – is likely next to cut.

In other overnight news, President Trump said Fed Chair Powell should be cutting rates because other countries are lowering rates and we want to remain even. Meanwhile, Fed’s Kashkari (Non-Voter, Dove) said the Fed will debate what to do on rates and that he is leaning towards further rate reduction, while he added that Fed officials are committed to ignoring politics and focusing on jobs. Kashkari also noted that he sees some cautious signs as well as some signs of optimism and that it is definitely a nervous time.

Additionally, Trump said he doesn’t think China will retaliate to an increase in tariffs and understands the September meeting between negotiators is still on, while he added that he has a call scheduled with Chinese President Xi and will be speaking to him soon. Trump also stated that US consumers may have to pay something at some point to cover the cost of tariffs on Chinese goods, that China very much wants to make a deal and he thinks the trade war will be fairly short.

In FX, the talk of ECB easing knocked the euro lower for a fourth day back to a two-week low of $1.1075 and away from a top of $1.1230 early in the week. It was last down 0.3% at $1.1078, helping lift the dollar index to 98.283 and off the week’s low of 97.033.  Australia’s dollar rose for a second day as U.S. President Donald Trump said he had a phone call coming soon with China’s Xi Jinping, boosting optimism trade tensions between the two nations will ease. The pound headed for its first weekly gain against the euro for three months, as opposition lawmakers sought to find a way to stop a no-deal Brexit, while Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid will become the first senior member of Boris Johnson’s government to hold Brexit talks with EU leaders when he flies to Berlin today to speak to German finance minister Olaf Scholz.

In commodities, gold fell 0.7% to $1,512.7, just off a six-year peak. Oil prices surged. Brent crude futures added 2% to $59.48 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 2% to $55.60 a barrel.

 

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.9% to 2,872.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 367.96
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 150.51
  • MXAPJ up 0.4% to 486.38
  • Nikkei up 0.06% to 20,418.81
  • Topix up 0.1% to 1,485.29
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.9% to 25,734.22
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 2,823.82
  • Sensex up 0.3% to 37,409.18
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.04% to 6,405.53
  • Kospi down 0.6% to 1,927.17
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to -0.707%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1086
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 17.1 bps to 0.985%
  • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 0.034%
  • Brent futures up 1.5% to $59.09/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.7% to $1,512.71
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 98.26

Top Overnight News

  • The European Central Bank is throwing every tool it has at the sluggish euro-zone economy. Starting in September, it’ll make a generous funding offer to lenders in the region, returning to an approach it’s used twice before in the past five years. It’s also considering tweaking its interest-rate policy to limit the punitive side effect of its stimulus.
  • Japanese investors bought a record amount of U.S. agency bonds in June, data from Department of Treasury showed Thursday. Purchases worth $14.3b were the highest in data going back to 1977
  • Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn’s appeal to other U.K. parties that he should become a caretaker prime minister to stop a no- deal Brexit looks to have already fallen flat, as even some in his own party apparently accepted an alternative plan was needed
  • Japan’s 10-year bond yield slipped to its lowest since July 2016, intensifying scrutiny over the central bank’s yield- curve control policy amid a global debt rally. New Zealand’s benchmark rate also fell to a new record low
  • The U.S. is gravely disappointed with the U.K. after a Gibraltar court allowed the release of an Iranian tanker suspected of hauling oil to Syria, and threatened sanctions against ports, banks and anyone else who does business with the ship or its crew, two administration officials said
  • “I’m leaning towards the camp of yes, we need to give more stimulus to the economy, more support, we need to continue the expansion and not allow a recession to hit us,” Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told Minnesota Public Radio
  • North Korea fired two unidentified projectiles on Friday into waters off its east coast between the Korean Peninsula and Japan, South Korea’s defense ministry said

Asian equity markets struggled for firm direction following the mixed lead from Wall St where most major indices eventually composed themselves after the recent sell-off but with price action tumultuous on continued US-China trade uncertainty. ASX 200 (Unch.) was subdued as upside in healthcare and financials counterbalanced weakness in commodities and telecoms, with a heavy slate of earnings adding to the mix. Nikkei 225 (Unch.) was restricted by an uneventful currency, while KOSPI (-0.6%) underperformed as it caught up to the recent rout on return from holiday and amid a deterioration in inter-Korean relations after North Korea fired 2 more projectiles and stated it has no intention to talk with South Korea again. Hang Seng (+0.9%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) were initially choppy amid conflicting rhetoric from both sides of the trade spat. In addition, policymakers later contributed to the outperformance in the mainland after the PBoC’s continued liquidity efforts resulted to a net weekly injection of CNY 300bln and with the NDRC announcing to roll out a plan to boost disposable incomes. Finally, 10yr JGBs initially edged higher to test the 155.00 level to the upside as 10yr yields fell to -0.25% which was the lowest since 2016, although prices then reversed in the aftermath of the BoJ’s Rinban operation in which it reduced purchases of 5yr-10yr bonds for the first time since December as speculated, to stem the decline in yields.

Top Asian News

  • BOJ Steps in With Cut to Bond Purchases as Yields Keep Sliding
  • Thailand Plans $10 Billion Economic Boost to Hit 3% Growth
  • Modi’s Kashmir Move Faces UN Test After Top Court Skips Pleas

European equities are higher across the board [Eurostoxx 50 +1.1%] following on from a mixed Asia-Pac session, with Europe continuing to feel tailwind from ECB’s Rehn, who yesterday hinted to a preference for a bazooka of Central Bank stimulus (in the form of rate cuts and APP) whilst stating its better to overshoot with stimulus than undershoot. UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.4%) fails to benefit from the prospect of EU stimulus and also encountered technical problems which delayed the bourse’s open by just over 90 minutes. Sectors are all in positive territory, whilst some early outperformance was seen in the IT sectors in light of NVIDIA’s (+5.3% pre-market) earnings which beat on both top and bottom lines and supported the likes of fellow chip names [AMS (+3.2%), Infineon (+2.2% and STMicroelectronics (+1.2%)]. Meanwhile, the EU banks saw a sudden sharp decline, although the current yield environment is not attractive, some are citing a technical break below 80 in the Euro Stoxx Bank Index (SX7E). In terms of individual movers, Bayer (+2.3%) rose on the back of an upgrade at BAML, whilst Ryanair (-2.6%) shares were impacted by a double downgrade.

Top European News

  • In Brave New World, U.K. Markets Don’t See Any BOE Hike, Forever

In FX, Sterling looks set to end the week on top of the G10 table after a run of firmer or better than expected UK data (average earnings, CPI and retail sales) and latest moves to block a no deal Brexit. Cable has reclaimed 1.2100+ status and inched above yesterday’s high (1.2150) even though the Dollar is also generally bid after Thursday’s strong US data/survey releases, while Eur/Gbp has reversed sharply from ytd highs of 0.9325 through Fib support at 0.9160 and 0.9150 amidst all round Euro weakness on the back of dovish ECB rhetoric and perhaps with some fix flow in the mix as well, as the cross probes 0.9125.

  • EUR – As noted, the single currency remains under pressure following yesterday’s aggressive policy pronouncements from ECB’s Rehn who is advocating conventional easing and substantial bond buying to be unveiled in September on the premise that too much is better than not enough in terms of stimulus. Hence, Eur/Usd is hovering just above the next sub-1.1100 target area or bidding zone between 1.1080-70 and at this stage expiry option interest at the big figure does not seem likely to factor (especially as there is less than 1 bn rolling off).
  • DXY – The index is inching closer to nearest chart resistance above 98.000 in wake of the aforementioned bullish US macro updates, at 98.301 vs 98.371, with the Greenback also gleaning momentum at the expense of other majors in contrast to EM currencies that are clawing back losses amidst an improved risk environment overall.
  • JPY/CHF/NZD – All on the back foot, with the Yen unable to breach 106.00 vs the Buck or threaten decent expiries below (1.1 bn from 105.80-70) and subsequently slipping to circa 106.50 as supply at 106.30 dried up, but holding in ahead of support via a Fib at 106.68 for now. Safe-haven unwinding is also weighing on the Franc that is hovering around 0.9800 and even lagging against the independently weak Euro, albeit still above 1.0900 and pivoting 1.0850. Elsewhere, the Kiwi has not derived any comfort from the upturn in risk sentiment after more deep RNBZ rate cut calls overnight (UBS looking for the OCR to hit 0.5% by February next yesr) and a sub-50 NZ manufacturing PMI, with Nzd/Usd closer to the base of 0.6450-25 parameters.
  • CAD/NOK – A decent rebound in crude prices has helped the Loonie pare some losses relative to its US counterpart within a 1.3325-1.3290 band, while 1.2 bn expiries at 1.3340 are also providing support ahead of 1.3350, and Eur/Nok has reversed from 10.0320 towards 9.9600 with the aid of oil’s recovery and ECB/Norges Bank policy divergence after the latter kept a 25 bp hike on the agenda for this year, albeit not necessarily next month as previously inferred.
  • EM – Regional currencies have extended their recoveries vs the Dollar as noted earlier, and irrespective of factors that would appear bearish or negative, like an unexpected 25 bp ease from Banxico and much weaker than forecast Turkish IP. However, Usd/Mxn and Usd/Try are both mid-range circa 19.5750 and 5.5500 respectively with the Peso and Lira getting traction from the wider pick-up in risk appetite.

In commodities, a positive session thus far for WTI and Brent futures as the benchmarks recover from yesterday’s losses with upside supported by constructive trade comments from US President Trump, who stated that a call is scheduled with his Chinese counterpart and the September meeting between the negotiators is still on. WTI reclaimed the 55/bbl handle during Asia-Pac hours whilst Brent prices moved north of 59/bbl in early EU trade; and both remain north of these marks. Looking ahead on the docket, OPEC are due to release its delayed Monthly Oil Market report with focus on any revisions to its global oil demand outlook following 2019 downgrades by both the EIA and IEA (to 1.1mln BPD and 1.0mln BPD respectively). Currently OPEC estimates that oil demand will grow by 1.4mln BPD in both 2019 and 2020. On a weekly basis, both benchmarks are poised to post mild gains, albeit this is very much subject to macro-newsflow heading into the final settlement of the week. Elsewhere, gold prices are retreating closer to the 1500/oz level as the Dollar index continues to gain ground above 98.000, whilst profit taking and an unwind in haven positions are contributing to the downside. Meanwhile, copper prices are little changed intraday and remain below the 2.60/lb level as a rise in Chinese refined copper output counterbalances some of the optimism from Trump’s latest China comments. Finally, Dalian iron ore futures are relatively flat as demand woes were neutralised by supply concerns after Brazil’s Vale halted operations at its Viga concentration plant, thus impacting some 330k tonnes of iron ore per month.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.26m, prior 1.25m; Housing Starts MoM, est. 0.24%, prior -0.9%
  • 8:30am: Building Permits, est. 1.27m, prior 1.22m; Building Permits MoM, est. 3.08%, prior -6.1%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 97, prior 98.4; Current Conditions, prior 110.7; Expectations, prior 90.5

DB’s Craig Nicol concludes the overnight wrap

After running to stand still recently, yesterday felt almost like a rare day of calm for risk assets although we still had the usual intraday swings to deal with. Indeed, it wasn’t like there wasn’t much newsflow to digest. We had more trade headlines, strong US data, and ECB stimulus talk. By the end of play, the S&P 500 limped to a +0.25% gain while the DOW and NASDAQ ended +0.39% and -0.09%, respectively. Volumes were still above average and the VIX remained elevated around 21.18; however, it did feel a bit calmer certainly relative to recent days. That being said, Treasuries continued to rally with 2y, 10y and 30y yields ending -7.8bps, -5.1bps and -4.5bps lower, respectively. They did actually weaken a bit into the close as prior to that we saw 10y yields fall below 1.50% intraday. The moves also meant that the 2s10s slope ended slightly steeper at +2.3bps. So we’re still waiting for the first official negative print on a closing basis in this cycle. Cash HY credit spreads finished +3bps and +4bps wider in the US and Europe, respectively. US IG spreads also widened slightly, though they were impacted by the sharp move in GE’s benchmark 2035 bonds, which widened +45bps after reports circulated, accusing the company of “accounting fraud.” The company’s shares fell -11.30% for their worst day since April 2008.

Just on the trade headlines, they focused on China’s state council tariff committee saying that China “has no choice but to take necessary measures to retaliate” and that the US had violated the Xi-Trump consensus with the latest tariff announcement. The statement didn’t suggest what the countermeasures might be; however, Zhou Xiaoming – a former Ministry of Commerce official – suggested that the retaliation may not be limited to tariffs. President Trump also said that an agreement with China has to be on “our terms” while he also indicated that he has a call with Xi “very soon” and that “they would like to do something”.

Overnight most Asian markets are trading higher, with the Nikkei (+0.09%), Shanghai Comp (+0.69%) and the Hang Seng (+0.74%) all advancing. However, the Kospi (-0.70%), which is trading again after yesterday’s Liberation Day bank holiday, has fallen back as news has come through overnight from South Korea that North Korea fired two projectiles, the latest in a series of tests that North Korea has launched in recent weeks. Meanwhile in Japan, 10y JGB yields fell to -0.257% in trading earlier for the first time since 2016, although at time of writing have risen to -0.241%. We’ve also heard overnight that the BoJ reduced their purchases of 5- to 10-year bonds by 30bn yen, the first reduction in their purchases of that maturity since December.

Sticking with Asia, we also heard yesterday that Hong Kong revised down their growth forecasts for this year, down to 0-1%, having been 2-3% previously, while also announcing stimulus measures. This morning, we’ll get Hong Kong’s final Q2 GDP print, which follows the advance estimate last month that showed GDP contracting by -0.3% qoq in Q2, with a yoy growth rate of +0.6%. Looking ahead, S&P 500 futures are currently up +0.58%.

In terms of that US data yesterday that we mentioned at the top, front and centre was the July retail sales report, which was undoubtedly strong with above-market prints for the core (+0.9% mom vs. +0.5% expected) and control group (+1.0% mom vs. +0.4% expected) components. There was a small downward revision to the prior month; however, this was still the fifth straight monthly increase in retail sales, which underscores the solidity of consumer activity at the moment. In addition to that, both the August empire manufacturing (4.8 vs. 2.0 expected) and Philly Fed (16.8 vs. 9.5 expected) surveys surprised to the upside while jobless claims ticked up slightly to 220k but still remain historically low.

The flip side for risk was the upward revision to unit labor costs to +2.4% qoq, which points to some modest upside risk to core CPI over the next year. The other slightly negative print was misses for July industrial production (-0.2% mom vs +0.1% expected), and manufacturing production (-0.4% mom vs. -0.3% expected) albeit slightly offset by upward revisions to the prior. All in all, the general takeaway from the slew of data was that this might make it harder for the Fed to surprise with a more aggressive cut next month (50bps as opposed to 25bps) given the solid consumer data, resilient business sentiment especially in the face of the trade war escalation, and a firming of pricing pressure in the labour market. It’s worth noting that GDP trackers ticked higher yesterday, with the Atlanta Fed estimate now at 2.2% for the third quarter, up +0.3pp from its previous level.

Meanwhile, the ECB stimulus talk concerned comments from policymaker Rehn who said that ECB easing should include an “significant and impactful” stimulus package at its September meeting, in an interview with the WSJ. He went on to say that “when you’re working with financial markets, it’s often better to overshoot than undershoot.” That left the market pricing higher odds of a big QE announcement for the September ECB meeting. Bonds rallied across the continent, with 10y yields in Germany, France, and Italy dropping -6.2bps, -6.6bps, and -17.6bps. The euro weakened as much as -0.42% in response and ultimately closed -0.29% lower versus the dollar, though the pass-through to equities was not overly strong, as the STOXX 600 still closed -0.29% lower.

Across the pond, Fedspeak didn’t really move markets, though we did get confirmation that Chair Powell will speak at 3pm London time next Friday to kick off the Jackson Hole conference. The text of his speech will likely be released at the same time. There were also unsubstantiated reports that Powell is cracking down on Fed staff communicating with market participants and/or the media, though it’s hard to believe that they would change their communications policy without publicizing it. Separately, St. Louis Fed President Bullard spoke and sounded, at the margin, dovish. He said that the market’s inflation expectations were “not high enough to meet our target so that is something I will definitely take into account if it is sustained going forward”. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari also said yesterday that “I’m leaning towards the camp of yes, we need to give more stimulus to the economy”.

In other news, the only other data worth flagging yesterday was in the UK where the July retail sales data was by and large surprisingly positive, with the core measure rising +0.2% mom versus expectations for a -0.2% mom decline. That took the year-on-year reading to +2.9% versus the expected +2.3%. As for other central banks, the global march toward more accommodation continued as the Norges Bank gave a surprisingly dovish statement, sending the krone -0.39% weaker versus the dollar. Mexico’s central bank also surprisingly cut interest rates by 25bps.

Finally to the day ahead, which is quiet for data this morning with only the June trade balance for the Euro Area due. Over in the US this afternoon, we’ll get July housing starts and building permits data before the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is released. It’s worth keeping an eye on the household inflation expectations component of this survey, which remains low despite a pickup last month and has been flagged as a concern by Fed officials. The only other release worth flagging is OPEC’s monthly oil market report.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.03 POINTS OR 0.28%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 239.76 POINTS OR 0.84%   /The Nikkei closed UP 13.16 POINTS OR 0.06%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .07%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0406 /Oil UP TO 55/40 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.09 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0406 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0469 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS PAST  7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

We have been highlighting Japan’s problems for years.  They now have the 10 year Japanese 10 yr bond yield greatly exceeding their target to .11.  To get the yield up they have decided to cut their purchase of 5 and 10 yr bonds

(zerohedge)

BOJ Cuts Purchases Of 5-10 Year Bonds For The First Time Since December

One of the more jarring, if underreported shifts in the world of central bank finance over the past three years, was the dramatic decline in the BOJ’s annual purchases of JGBs, which has shrank drastically from its 2015 peak, and was back to levels first seen just after the start of Japan’s QQE.

And yet despite this obvious tapering in the BOJ’s QE, the yield on 10Y JGBs has not increased; on the contrary, courtesy of the paralyzed Japanese bond market, where barely anyone is left to trade with the BOJ now owning more than half of all government bonds, price formation has been made virtually impossible, and furthermore, as a result of the recent sharp drop in global yields, the benchmark 10Y JGB has seen its yield slide from 0% at the start of the year to -0.15% in recent months, and most recently take a sharp move lower as it plunged to the lowest on record at -0.25% as of today.

 

This plunge in JGB yields to a level below the JGB’s lower bound on its Yield Curve Control corridor which extends to -0.20%, prompted some to comically expect the BOJ to start selling bonds…

zerohedge@zerohedge

JAPAN 10-YEAR LEAD BOND FUTURES RISE TO RECORD HIGH OF 154.97

Is BOJ going to sell some to keep rate in corridor

… while other, more serious, traders expected the BOJ to announce a sharp cut in the amount of JGB bonds in the 5-10 year bucket it would repurchase at today’s rinban, or POMO, operation.

As Mitsubishi UFJ’s Katsutoshi Inadome noted, today marks the first buying operation in the 5-10 year zone since Japan’s benchmark 10-year yield fell below the bottom of the BOJ’s targeted range on Aug. 6, and with the yield since falling further and touching minus 0.25% on Thursday, if the BOJ didn’t announce or do anything when yields are looking set to decline further, it would be an issue – and a message – from the point of maintaining the yield curve control, namely that the BOJ no longer cares if yields go straight down.

The alternative was simple: reduce the amount of bonds the BOJ buys back, with some speculating that the BOJ could reduce purchases of 5-10 year zone by as much as 50BN yen – which would be the largest cut in this zone since the introduction of the yield curve control policy in September 2016 – while sending a very strong signal to the market against falling yields.

In the end the BOJ picked a middle option: it did indeed cut the amount of bonds in the 5-10 year bucket it would purchase, but the amount was less than the most aggressive expectations, dropping by 30BN yen, from 480BN yen to 450BN. This was the first cut in the core maturity zone since December 14.

However, while the Bank of Japan did as widely expected in response to the aggressive bull-flattening in JGBs, this move will hardly end the rally as the market tests Kuroda’s tolerance for yields underneath the target range, according to Bloomberg’s Tommi Utoslahti, who also writes that “today’s decision to trim 5-to-10 year bond purchases by 30b yen suggests BOJ’s yield-curve control settings remain unchanged — whereas leaving the operation sizes unchanged could have been seen as a de facto widening of the targeted range.”

Indeed, despite the shrinkage in stated BOJ purchases – amid what has already been a secular decline in BOJ bond purchases despite the ongoing QE – the market barely reacted, and the USDJPY is unchanged, while JGB futures remain close to 155.02 record high, and as Bloomberg notes, “will likely extend gains unless the BOJ provides more detailed insight into its thinking.”

Meanwhile, JGB bulls will have little incentive to not test the BOJ or cede control in their push to revisit the all time record low 10Y yield of -0.30%.

end

3 C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Germany

Germany is very worried about its economy. It may go slightly into a deficit by going into debt. In the broad stream of things, this is small stuff

(zerohedge)

Stocks, Bund Yields Spike On Another Spiegel Report Germany Ready To Run Budget Deficit

One week after the Spiegel floated a media trial balloon, attempting to spark a change in Germany’s approach toward deficit spending, reporting that the government was proposing a €500 MM debt deal to fund climate protection, news which was promptly denied by the government, Spiegel has done it again, reporting moments ago that Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz are ready to run a budget deficit… if Europe’s largest economy goes into recession.

According to the report, the shortfall in tax revenue from economic slump could be offset by new debt, Spiegel – which desperately wants to get the government and public on the side of deficit spending – reports, citing the usual anonymous “sources” in the chancellery and the finance ministry. As a reminder, under the German constitution, net federal debt can increase by only 0.35% of output if there is GDP growth, but since the rules can be relaxed during recession, it is not clear how the Spiegel report is actually news.

None of this was a consideration to algos, which saw “Germany” and “deficit spending” and sent the Emini surging…

… and the 10Y bund yield spiking to session highs.

Again, as a reminder, last Thursday, the Spiegel reported that a senior government official stated that Germany considering issuance of new debt to finance climate plans, implying a revisit to its current balanced federal budget and the “black zero” principle, (i.e. the principle that avoids creating new debt for more climate protection measure), essentially a “debt brake.” That report was promptly rejected by the government.

And now we await for the usual government channels to deny that the Spiegel report represents any change to current German fiscal policy.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

Bill Blain comments that 4 stocks could start a market crash. I will add a 5th:

1. HSBC

2.GE

3 Boeing

4. New IPO  We work

and 5th (Harvey) Deutsche bank

(courtesy Bill; Blain/Shard Capital)

Blain: These Four Stocks Could Start A Market Crash

Blain’s Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain of Shard Capital

 “Summer Breeze makes me feel fine… blowing thru the jasmine on my mind..!

Run for the hills..? Nope.

How much more horrible does this need to get: Chinese Police Troops poised on the Hong Kong Border?  Bond Yields inverted and tumbling lower?  Germany sliding into recession?  China hiding internal pain?  Global Equity threatening to puke completely?  Italy government about to fall?  Brexit?  Trade wars deepening?  Political gridlock?  Geopolitical uncertainty?  A new banking crisis?  The outlook looks horrible… but Relax.  Just Do It!  The sun will likely come up tomorrow.  And don’t forget we are right in the Ides of August: the thinnest, most illiquid time of the year.  Crashes usually happen in October!

 

We’ve also got a growing awareness from global regulators, central bankers, and politicians of just how badly flawed policy responses and their unintended consequences have been since 2008.  None of them want to jeopardize their electoral chances or future careers.  If crisis crunches into crash there is the reality of a rescue bailout to factor in.  (How is the question – central banks are out of options on rates, so I guess they just buy everything and end the logic of free markets for ever…)

Plus, it’s a simple fact there is loads and loads of ready cash sitting waiting for the opportunity to invest on a market reset.  When the whole street is waiting for a correction as the moment to buy… It doesn’t happen till you don’t expect it.

Let’s not be overly optimistic.  There are clearly troubles ahead, but I suspect they are likely to be tactical in the short-run.  The risk is a couple of tactical shocks could precipitate a strategic collapse. Let me explain – all it might take is a couple of key stock shocks to really crush market sentiment, and spin us into a situation where the “authorities” have to respond to crisis.

Let me give you the four stocks I think you should be watching for signs we’ve in the deep solids…

  1. First up is HSBC.  If Hong Kong kicks off, there has to be a massive sell off in the bank. It gets 90% of its profits from Hong Kong – which is already massively destabilised as a result of the tensions and protests.  Money and skills are exiting the territory and heading towards Singapore.  HSBC is already on the China sh*t-list over Huawei.  If you think the Chinese will enable a foreign bank and signal of imperialism to flower in a New Hong Kong, then please can I have a quarter of whatever you are smoking.  (And HSBC makes my blood boil: Yesterday I tried to pay money to my daughter’s new account in Oz.  I gave the details to HSBC over the phone, but they refused to make any payments unless I answered a host of deeply personal questions about why – they knew it was daughter!  I understand why, but they were so bloody rude and arrogant about it – treating me like a child.  I gave up.  I am also writing to the FCA to make formal complaint: they screwed up 3 credit card repayments in a row, and then promised to respond to my initial complaint within 8 weeks. They offered me a meeting in a Southampton branch to discuss. I said no – let’s meet in London when I live and work during the week. They considered that sufficient grounds to close the case. They are definitionally useless.)
  2. Second stock to watch is GE – in the press yesterday because the guy that exposed Madoff says they are guilty of a $38 bln fraud in their insurance and Baker Hughes business.  Ouch.  Late last year I warned GE had a very limited time to fix itself – See “Is GE Going to Repay its Debt”.  Now GE may be working round its problems, but another wobble and the kind of 15% stock crash we saw last night makes that path even more perilous.  Bad news sticks.
  3. Third is Boeing. I’ve written about its problems so many times – back in July warning that as the biggest component stock on the Dow, Boeing could be the name to trigger collapse.  There is no idea when it gets the B 737 Max programme back in the air or if anyone will now fly it.  The company is still in denial, and the likelihood of massive legal action as the scale of their regulatory capture of the FAA becomes apparent is growing.  The sheer greed of their top management and how they pushed back safety in pursuit of bonueses and their pay packages could yet crush the company and force a policy response from US government that could totally change their position selling planes abroad.
  4. And, then there is We-Work’s IPO.  You really could not make it up how one sided the terms of the IPO are and what it actually says about the company’s “mission”, values and its boss – Adam Neumann.  To buy this stock you would need to be insane.  If it’s not the absolute top of the crazy tech IPO market, then the world needs a reset.  To read the details try this from the Register: Authentic Tech Company Vibes, right down to billion in losses and admission it may never be profitable.  And the thing is – its not a Tech company at all.  It’s a rather poorly managed property play run by a snake oil salesman who’d bluffed some stupid money.  Here’s what I said about We-Work back in January.

I am sure there are a host of other equity and bond stories that could provide the sparks that light a market conflaguration in coming weeks.  Or maybe we will get lucky and the fires keep get put out before they take hold.  We only need to be unlucky a few times….

Bottom line – I suspect we are at something of a wake-up and smell the coffee moment.  It’s going to be painful and massive pressure on top level level stocks will trigger all kinds of post-shock consequences. It will likely trigger a regulatory reaction and a buying opportunity. I suppose the only strategy is stay awake and be a boy-scout: be prepared..

Meanwhile, back in Camelot… Blain’s Brexit Watch

When I get round to writing the definitive comedy about Brexit I am going to ask Jeremy Corbyn to play himself. He’s brilliant. An unchallenged masterof pathos, gormlessness, and a capacity for self-delusion that would be unbeatable if parliament didn’t already contain Hammond and the Liberals. However, his offer to lead the country might not be so stupid – he’s not saving No-Brexit. He’s strectching out the pain, promising Brexit Tomorrow, if you still want it. Bottom line on Brexit. Going to hurt. UK will feel pain, and recover. Not so sure about Europe.

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Argentina

Everything is collapsing in Argentina:  investment funds, the Peso, Argentinian bonds..the whole enchalada

(zero hedge)

Forget The Yield Curve, It’s Argentina’s Collapse That Highlights The Market’s Biggest Problem

Distracted by Hong Kong social unrest and focused on yield curve inversions and negative yields worldwide, it is not surprising the ‘average joe’ investor is missing the real forest fire for the trees.

With almost $17 trillion in global debt now yielding below zero… (Harvey:  $17 trillion out of a total $52 trillion)

and more than half of the world’s sovereign yield curves inverted...

 

It is easy to be worried about the state of the global economy (and theoretically therefore the state of global financial markets), but, as Bloomberg’s Cormac Mullen notes, the biggest alarm bell for investors this week wasn’t the inverted U.S. yield curve; the market dislocation in Argentina was a clear signal to get out of illiquid securities soon or face exaggerated losses at the next significant meltdown.

President Mauricio Macri’s stunning rout in primary elections led to fears of another sovereign default. Argentina’s stock market plunged nearly 40%, the peso slid 15% and bonds slumped in a 4-sigma event — statistical speak for just 0.006% likely to happen.

The point isn’t to highlight the potential risk should a populist end up in the Casa Rosada, it’s to flag what can happen when event risks meet illiquid markets.

Just look at the reaction the Argentine currency. The gap between bid and offer prices surged to over 7 pesos per dollar on Monday.

The nation’s central bank and Treasury accounted for about a third of spot-market volume. Even with the currency down over 20% since last Friday it seems traders have yet to unload the bulk of their holdings

Argentina is a poster child for the way investors were drawn to once-inconceivable assets by the hunt for yield. And in a world where algorithms and machine trading are replacing brokers and market makers, the inability to exit all but the most liquid positions smoothly has become an ever bigger risk – a liquidity breakdown was the biggest fear for quant investors in a JPMorgan survey in May.

It’s not only exotic assets at risk of a breakdown in liquidity – a spike in ultra-long Treasury futures triggered a circuit-breaker in thin trading Wednesday. The yen experienced a flash crash during Tokyo’s New Year holidays.

Warnings have grown louder in recent months about the risks fund managers are running by investing in difficult-to-trade assets — what’s happening in Argentina is a reminder to heed them.

All of which confirms our recent discussion on the looming liquidity crisis:

First it was the shocking junk bond fiasco at Third Avenue which led to a premature end for the asset manager, then the three largest UK property funds suddenly froze over $12 billion in assets in the aftermath of the Brexit vote; two years later the Swiss multi-billion fund manager GAM blocked redemptions, followed by iconic UK investor Neil Woodford also suddenly gating investors despite representations of solid returns and liquid assets, and most recently the ill-named, Nataxis-owned H20 Asset Management decided to freeze redemptions.

By this point, a pattern had emerged, one which Bank of England Governor Mark Carney described best when he said last month that investment funds that promise to allow customers to withdraw their money on a daily basis are “built on a lie.”

And now, the chief investment officer of Europe’s biggest independent asset manager agrees with him, because while for much of 2019 the biggest risk bogeymen were corporate credit, leveraged loans, and trillions in negative yielding debt, gradually consensus is emerging that investment funds themselves may be the basis for the next liquidity crisis.

“There is no point denying we are faced with a looming liquidity mismatch problem,” said Pascal Blanque, who oversees more than 1.4 trillion euros ($1.6 trillion) as the CIO of Amundi SA, according to Bloomberg’s Mark Gilbert who in a Bloomberg View piece writes that Blanque told him that the prospect of melting liquidity is one of “various things keeping me awake at night.”

Continuing the discussion of illiquid institutions, Blanque said that market making, where firms generate prices at which they are willing to either buy or sell financial products, is effectively “a public good” (or “public bad”, if it is being done by HFTs who disappear at the first sign of volatility, and them having to take on real positional risk). Of course, as that activity declines, the drop in turnover reduces the banking industry’s exposure to a collapse in prices or a surge in volatility. But the dangers are simply transferred, rather than diminished.

“Market making is falling off a cliff at the level of individual banks, but creating a systemic problem,” Blanque told Gilbert. “The banks are less risky – but the risks have been shifted to the buy side.”

Highlighting the biggest reason why liquidity has become an illusion (or rather mass delusion), is that while the dealer inventory of corporate bonds has declined by 90%…

For now, asset managers have to cope with what Blanque called “the sacred cow” – although a better phrase would be “constant risk” of allowing clients to withdraw funds on a daily basis.

“It is a bomb, given the risks of liquidity mismatch,” he warns. “We don’t know if what is sellable today will be sellable in six months’ time.”

That’s not the only we don’t know. As Blanque concluded, “we don’t know the channels of transmission, we don’t know how the actors will act. It is uncharted territory.”

And that, precisely, is why central banks can never again allow risk asset prices to drop: the alternative means gating not one, or two, or a hundred funds, but halting the entire market, because once everyone start selling and price discovery finally returns to a market that has been dominated by central banks for the past decade, several generations of traders and investors who have grown up without price discovery will be shocked to discover just where “fair” market prices reside.

So stop worrying about the yield curve, it’s the liquidity collapse when everyone runs for the exits that is the real existential threat.

end

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1079 DOWN .0031 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.33 UP 0.241 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.139   UP   0.0069  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3290 DOWN .0027 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 31 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1079 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 8.03 POINTS OR 0.24% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 239.76 POINTS OR 0.84%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,07%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 239.76 POINTS OR 0.84%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.03 POINTS OR 0.28%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 04% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 13.16  POINTS OR 0.06%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1413.20

silver:$17.17-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.55% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.01 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 98.30 UP 16 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.11% UP 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.23%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.08%//UP 5 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,40 UP 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 132 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.31% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.08% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1091  DOWN     .0019 or 19 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.30 UP .212 OR YEN DOWN 21  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2150 UP .0060 POUND UP 60  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 33 basis points to 1.3284

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0428    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0480  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.5758 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.23%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.56 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.02 UP 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.22 UP 8  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 50.14  0.71%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 150.07 POINTS OR 1.31%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 53.15 POINTS 1.51%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 151.40 POINTS or 1.78%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 302.31 POINTS OR 1.51%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 54.91 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 58.66 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE LOWERS:    66.47  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.43 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 43 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.68 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  54.91//

 

 

BRENT :  58.53

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.55  up 3…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.03  up 6..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1089 ( DOWN 21   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.31 UP .221 (YEN DOWN 22 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.19 UP 5 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2142 UP 52  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.5796

 

 

the Russian rouble 66.51   DOWN 0.47 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 47 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3258 UP 59 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0428  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0446 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.68%

 

The Dow closed UP 306.62 POINTS OR 1.20%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 179.87 POINTS OR 1.38%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.53 CLOSED DOWN .44

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.123%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Bond Yields Plunge Most Since ‘Black Monday’, Stocks Stumble On Week

This week was brought toy by the words “Distorted”, “Different This Time”, & “Resilient” and the number 800 (points down in the Dow)…

China’s National Team was very evident in their stock market this week (as economic data collapsed along with social order in Hong Kong)

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks bounced back from early carnage on hopes of German fiscal recklessness…

 

Source: Bloomberg

European Banks bloodbath’d…

 

Source: Bloomberg

US equities staged a valiant recovery after the midweek collapse – following President Trump’s call to the big bank CEOs…Trannies were the laggards as Nasdaq outperformed but all major US indices ended red on the week…

 

Defensive stocks dominated cyclicals on the week…

 

Source: Bloomberg

VIX was up marginally on the week but ended back below 19…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks and bonds decoupled as the former rallied back from near disaster and the latter ignored the propaganda…

Source: Bloomberg

A big week for bonds with 30Y Yields cratering over 25bps – the biggest weekly drop since June 2012…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y yields fell to a record low, below 2.00%. And have collapsed 60bps in 3 weeks – the biggest crash in yields since August 2011’s Black Monday following the US debt downgrade…

Source: Bloomberg

While 2s10s did invert briefly this week, it is the 3m-10Y that is more accurate and that remains deeply inverted…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Markets shifted to demand a more dovish Fed this week…

 

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied on the week but remains below the post-Powell spike…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan was stable for the rest of the week after spiking on tariff delays…

 

Source: Bloomberg

EM FX tumbled for the 5th week in a row…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos had a rough week…

 

Source: Bloomberg

But Bitcoin managed to get back above $10k…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Amid the chaos in bonds and stocks, commodities looked positively serene…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Aside from some chaos in crude…

 


Yuan continues to devalue against gold…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as @LukeGromen noted so eloquently: “Have you ever seen people running into a burning building for safety? You have now.”

 

Source: Bloomberg

Almost $17 trillion of negative-yielding debt globally!

And a Hindenburg Omen hit stocks this week…

 

Source: Bloomberg

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Despite low interest rates, housing starts continue to plunge.  We are now witnessing a rental unit crash as well

(zerohedge)

Despite Record Low Rates, Housing Starts Plunge Amid Rental Unit Crash

Despite the hype of tumbling interest rates and rising mortgage applications, housing starts tumbled again in May, dropping a whopping 4.0% MoM in July to 1.191MM, the biggest drop and the lowest print since February, drastically missing expectations for a 0.2% rise as a result of a 17.2% crash in multi-family units. The silver lining: permits jumped by a much better than expected 8.4% MoM, rising to 1.336MM from 1.232MM, keeping the series roughly flat for the past three years.

Continuing a trend observed in recent months, the weakness in starts was largely due to multi-family units, which plunged from 366K to 303K annualized, a whopping 17.2% drop to the lowest level since August 2017, even as single family units remained relatively flat, and rose 1.3% in July.

On the other end, and in a mirror image to the permits picture, the better than expected print for permits, at 1.336MM, above the 1.270MM expected, was thanks to a massive spike in multi-family, or rental units, which surged by 24.8%, even as single-family permits were also barely changed at 1.8%.

The bottom line: not exactly a picture of health for the future of millennial homeownership as rental nation remains front and center, despite record low interest rates.

 end
Consumer confidence crashes!!
(zerohedge)

Consumer Confidence Crashes As Rate-Cut Triggered “Apprehensions About A Recession”

But, but, but… yesterday CNBC was telling us about how strong the consumer is and how bonds must be wrong.

UMich Consumer Sentiment collapsed in August (flash data) ,slumping to 92.1 from July’s 98.4, missing all forecasts in Bloomberg’s survey of economists. The gauge of current conditions decreased to 107.4 while the expectations index dropped to 82.3, bringing both readings to the lowest levels since early this year.

Current economic conditions are at their weakest since Trump was elected (Nov 2016).

 

And buying conditions crashed to cycle lows…

 

Consumers “strongly reacted” to the proposed increases in tariffs on Chinese goods, a subject that was spontaneously cited by 33% of those surveyed, near the recent peak of 37%, according to the report. Americans also concluded, following the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate cut in a decade, that they may need to be more cautious about spending in anticipation of a potential recession, the report said. As UMich notes:

Consumers concluded, following the Fed’s lead, that they may need to reduce spending in anticipation of a potential recession.

Perhaps the most important remaining pillar of strength for consumer spending is favorable job and income prospects, although the August survey indicated some concerns about the future pace of income and job gains. It is likely that consumers will reduce their pace of spending while keeping the economy out of recession at least through mid 2020.

So, Powell’s rate-cut backfired beautifully.

end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

The USA just announces that a huge 19 million acres of farmland went un-planted this year.  Corn and Soybean planting is less than 60% and this means less food and less exports

(Michael Snyder)

According To The Feds, 19 Million Acres Of Farmland Went Un-Planted With Crops This Year

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

If that headline sounds really bad to you, that is because the situation that we are facing is really bad. 

Over the past few months, I have written article after articleabout the unprecedented crisis that U.S. farmers are facing this year.  In those articles, I have always said that “millions” of acres of farmland did not get planted this year, because I knew that we did not have a final number yet.  Well, now we do, and it is extremely troubling.  Of course there are some people out there that do not even believe that we are facing a crisis, and a few have even accused me of overstating the severity of the problems that U.S. farmers are currently dealing with. Sadly, things are not as bad as I thought – the truth is that they are even worse. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, crops were not planted on 19.4 million acres of U.S. farmland this year.  The following comes directly from the official website of the USDA

Agricultural producers reported they were not able to plant crops on more than 19.4 million acres in 2019, according to a new report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). This marks the most prevented plant acres reported since USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) began releasing the report in 2007 and 17.49 million acres more than reported at this time last year.

So this is the largest number that the USDA has ever reported for a single year, and it is nearly 17.5 million acres greater than last year’s final tally of less than 2 million acres.

If you have been following my articles on a regular basis, then you know exactly why this has happened.  The middle of the nation was absolutely pummeled by endless rain and unprecedented flooding throughout the first half of 2019, and this new USDA report shows that the vast majority of the acres that were not planted come from that area of the country

Of those prevented plant acres, more than 73 percent were in 12 Midwestern states, where heavy rainfall and flooding this year has prevented many producers from planting mostly corn, soybeans and wheat.

“Agricultural producers across the country are facing significant challenges and tough decisions on their farms and ranches,” USDA Under Secretary for Farm Production and Conservation Bill Northey said. “We know these are challenging times for farmers, and we have worked to improve flexibility of our programs to assist producers prevented from planting.”

Of course the 19.4 million acres that were not planted are only part of the story.

Most farmers were able to get seeds in the ground despite the challenging conditions, but in much of the country the crops are not in good shape.

In fact, according to the latest crop progress report only 57 percent of the corn is considered to be in “good” or “excellent” shape.

Unfortunately, the nation’s soybean crop is in even worse shape.  At this point, only 54 percent of the soybeans are in “good” or “excellent” shape.

In addition, only 8 percent of the U.S. spring wheat crop has been harvested so far.  That is “sharply below the 30% five-year average”.

So what does all of this mean?

Well, it means that we have a real crisis on our hands.  A lot less crops are being grown, and a substantial percentage of the crops that are being grown are not in good shape.  Yields are going to be way down across the board, and that means that U.S. agricultural production is going to be way, way below initial expectations.

In other words, we are going to grow a lot less food than usual.

One bad year is not going to be the end of the world, but what if things don’t bounce back next year?  As I keep telling my readers, our planet is becoming increasingly unstable in a whole bunch of different ways, and global weather patterns have been shifting dramatically.  Many experts are issuing very ominous warnings about what is ahead as weather patterns continue to shift, and some believe that what we have witnessed so far is just the very beginning of this crisis.

Almost every day, there are new headlines about extreme weather and records being broken.  For example, one community in Colorado just got pummeled by hail the size of softballs

Monster hail fell from the sky and hammered areas of the central United States on Tuesday, shattering a state record. Earlier on Tuesday before the storms developed, AccuWeather Extreme Meteorologist Reed Timmer warned that Colorado’s state hail record could be in jeopardy given the intensity of the storms that he saw developing.

His prediction came to fruition on Tuesday afternoon when a hailstone with a maximum diameter of 4.83″ fell in Bethune, Colorado, on Tuesday afternoon. The record was confirmedon Wednesday evening by the Colorado Climate Center and the National Weather Service office in Goodland, Kansas.

For some of my readers, this freakish incident is going to set off major alarm bells.

We are regularly seeing things happen that we have never seen before.  In other words, the seemingly impossible is happening so frequently that it has become mundane.

Despite all of our advanced technology, we are still completely and utterly dependent on the weather.  If the weather does not cooperate, farmers cannot grow our food, and we will not eat.

Hopefully harvest season will go smoothly, but even if that happens, food supplies will be a lot tighter in the months ahead and that means that prices will continue to rise steadily.

This is a crisis that is going to affect all of us.  I wish that I could get everyone to understand this, but unfortunately there are still a lot of people out there that are not taking this seriously.

end

Peter Schiff again warns on the “Great Recession:” which will jeopardize Trump’s re election efforts and put the entire globe in turmoil

(Mac Slavo.SHFTPlan.com.

 

Schiff: Looming “Great Recession” Will Jeopardize Trump’s Re-Election Efforts

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Economic analyst and gold bug Peter Schiff is warning that another “Great Recession” will grip the United States and that when it does, it is going tojeopardize President Donald Trump’s reelection efforts.

According to a report by Fox Business, Schiff, the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital says that the United States economy is heading into a free fall that will be worse than the Great Recession of 2008. The economic forecaster is predicting the Federal Reserve (the central bank) will cut interest rates to zero and launch quantitative easing, a monetary policy where the central bank purchases Treasuries from financial institutions to stimulate the economy.

The dollar is going to go through the floor and it’s going to take the bond market with it and the next crisis, it’s not subprime mortgages, it’s going to be in the Treasury market,” he said on Wednesday.

There’s no way out and it’s a political disaster for Trump because the recession is going to start before he finishes this term, which means he won’t have a second term” Schiff added.

This is not the first time Schiff has warned about Trump’s reelection chances.  The president’s best hope is that any recession holds off until after the 2020 election.

It’s a bubble. Powell doesn’t seem to understand that. He seems to think the economy is doing OK. It’s not. The economy today is in worse shape than it was before it collapsed in 2008. The Fed inflated a much bigger bubble this time than it did last time. And yes, the longer we succeed in kicking the can down the road, the greater the imbalances grow as a result of this bubble, and the more painful it is when the air comes out. And that’s what’s going to happen. And what’s going to be so much worse about the coming recession is that it’s going to be inflationary. We’re going to have stagflation except it’s going to be a recession, not just stagnation, and the inflation rate is going to be far higher than it was the last time we had stagflation, which was in the 1970s.”

Schiff has been warning of a recession for a while now, and he has a gloomy outlook for the world’s future when it comes to the centralized planning and elimination of free trade and free societies. His warnings appear to be falling on deaf ears, however, as we still have people actually defending the trade war and tariffs which have been levied on the already cash-strapped American consumer.

Schiff’s comments come after the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 800 points, marking the worst drop of the year and the fourth-largest daily point drop in history. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell below the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury for the first time since the Great Recession, worsening global recession fears.

“As we move into this recession, consumer prices are going to rise even faster and once the dollar starts to fall that’s going to push consumer prices up even more,” he said saying we will see major inflation and a complete devaluation of the dollar.

Unfortunately, the risks of another recession continue to rise and some analysts say there’s nothing the government or the Fed can do to stop it this time. Especially considering both the government and the Fed are to blame for every recession in history.

You have a little bit of panic going on here about the state of the economy and the bond market is reflecting that,” said Richard Bernstein, founder of investment firm RBAdvisors.

The bond market is telling you that growth is slowing and the economy may be a lot sicker than people believe.”

 end
John Deere is another good Bellwether for global growth as they deal with farm and mining equipment. They have just cut their guidance for the 2nd straight quarter amid the farmer turmoil
(zerohedge)

Deere Cuts Guidance For Second Straight Quarter Amid Farmer Turmoil

For those asking this morning if the US-China trade war is hurting the economy – and America’s farmers – look no further than heavy industrial equipment giant Deere which this morning cut its earnings guidance for a second straight quarter and announced a review of costs as U.S. farmers – battered by trade and weather disruptions – were unable to splurge on expensive new tractors.

While Deere’s Q3 results were dismal – with the company missing on both the top line, reporting 3Q net sales of $8.97 billion, down -3.4% y/y, and below the estimate of $9.38 billion, and the bottom line, with Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.71 missing estimates of $2.84 – its guidance was worse.

Deere cut its net income and its construction & forestry equipment sales forecasts for the full year, with the guidance missing the average analyst estimate. The company now sees FY net income about $3.2 billion, down from $3.3 billion previously, and below the sellside estimate of $3.29 billion. The company also cut its FY construction & forestry equipment sales forecast to +10%, from +11%, and below the +11% estimate. Deere also said it was “conducting a thorough assessment of its cost structure and initiating a series of actions to make the organization more structurally efficient and profitable.”  For fiscal 2019, equipment sales are now projected to rise about 4%, with net income forecast at $3.2 billion, the Moline, Illinois-based company said. Three months ago, it predicted 5% equipment sales growth and $3.3 billion profit.

And so with fiscal Q3 earnings missing estimates and a sharp guidance cut, Deere shares fell 3.7% in pre-market trading on Friday before recovering some ground. The stock has badly underperformed the S&P since the start of the year.

The quarterly results “reflected the high degree of uncertainty that continues to overshadow the agricultural sector,” Chief Executive Officer Samuel Allen said in a statement Friday. “Concerns about export-market access, near-term demand for commodities such as soybeans, and overall crop conditions, have caused many farmers to postpone major equipment purchases.”

According to Bloomberg, the reason for the disappointing results was that US farmers were hesitating to upgrade their aging fleets of Deere’s iconic yellow and green tractors as the U.S.-China trade war stretches into a second year, undermining crop demand and fanning fears of recession. At the same time, record rainfall in the U.S. planting season gave way to hot, dry weather that has dimmed the outlook for yields and farmer incomes.

 end
My goodness!! this is very telling..Powell just issued a gag order against his Fed Presidents for speaking at any time re the economy. So much for transparency..must be very bad
(zerohedge)

Powell Issues Gag Order To Fed Presidents: Report

Following the recent dismal communication failures first by NY Fed president John Williams, and following that, Powell’s own notorious July 31 “mid-cycle adjustment” press conference, a recurring laments among the investment community has been for the Fed to just keep its mouth shut, instead of continuing to yap and confirming that it is absolutely clueless about the economy and the future.

In a surprising twist, the Fed may actually be listening.

According to the Spectator, chair Powell has banned any public appearances by any Fed Board member, noting that “appearances at conferences have been canceled, all scheduled interviews have been abandoned and any comments on or off the record are outlawed.”

This unprecedented action, the Spectator reports, is a reflection of two pressures.

  • First, economic indicators increasingly suggest the US is heading into a recession with the Dow plunging 800 points on Wednesday.
  • Second, relations with the White House have reached a new low, with president Trump pinning the success of his presidency upon a strong economy as a recession – Trump believes – would destroy his reputation and kill his reelection chances. As a result, Trump has – correctly – blamed the current woeful state of the global economy on the Fed. The problem is that Trump also “owned” the same state of both the economy and the market for the past two years, so any recession will be entirely his, just as Yellen (and Bernanke) intended, and shift attention away from the Fed.

Continuing a series of outbursts aimed at the Fed, Trump again lashed out at Powell (and the Fed) claiming they are responsible for the slide in the stock market. To be sure, Trump has been doing this for a long time, realizing he will need a foil if when the market and economy crash, and has – for better or worse – picked the Fed as the scapegoat.

‘Other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve,’ Trump wrote on Twitter Wednesday. ‘Germany, and many others, are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!’

Meanwhile, a hapless Powell believes that the Fed, which cut interest rates by a quarter point at the end of last month, has very little left in its armory and that even a cut in interest rates would do nothing to combat growing international economic pressures. Powell has become increasingly concerned at Trump’s criticisms, which according to the Spectator show the president has little understanding of the economy or the Fed’s role. Of course, at the end of the day, what matters is what Trump believes, and according to the president, it may soon be time to stack the Fed with his personal, dovish appointees, the result of which are posts such as the one in which a Hedge Fund CIO asked : “When Will A Reporter Ask Powell If He Will Be The Last Fed Chairman.”

Which brings us to the unprecedented gag order, which the Spectator says is due to Powell’s determination not to do or allow to be said nothing that could further fuel the struggle between an independent Fed and a controlling president.

Unfortunately for Powell, that will likely change as soon as next week’s Jackson Hole meeting, especially if the Fed fails to commit to 100bps or more in rate cuts and/or launch QE.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Retail Sales Surge in July Thanks to Amazon’s Prime Day

Non-store retailers (i.e. Amazon) saw a massive 2.8% MoM surge in sales thanks to Prime Day…

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-15/retail-sales-surge-july-thanks-amazons-prime-day

Retail sales for July increased 3.4% y/y, no recession here or in Unit Labor Costs (+2.5% y/y, Comp per hour +4.3%).  The DJT reign low of 1.4% y/y occurred in December 2018 after Q4 stock market tumble.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey [+0.5 to 4.8 in August]

The new orders index… at 6.7 indicated that orders increased. The shipments index moved slightly higher to 9.3… employees held below zero for a third consecutive month, coming in at -1.6, and the average workweek index was -1.3, pointing to ongoing sluggishness in employment levels… The prices paid index edged down two points to 23.2, suggesting a slightly slower pace of input price increases than last month. The prices received index was little changed at 4.5…The index for future business conditions fell five points to 25.7, and the index for future new orders also moved lower

https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview

Reported at 9:15 ET: July Industrial Production declined 0.2% m/m, +0.1% exp; Manufacturing Production declined 0.4%, -0.3% was expected.

At the NYSE open, ESUs had fallen to 2843.  The usual suspects bought ESUs and stocks on the NYSE open.  The opening rally ended within 4 minutes.  By 9:41 ET the DJTA was down 74 points, the DJIA was negative.  However, it’s expiry week; so the usual suspects dug in and bought the dip.  A 19-handle ESU rally appeared in 14 minutes on this WSJ report:

ECB Has Big Bazooka Primed for September, Top Official [Olli Rehn] Says – The central bank is preparing a ‘very strong package’ of stimulus measures to support the flagging eurozone economy

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ecb-stimulus-package-may-beat-expectations-official-says-11565876685?mod=e2twe

At 10:04 ET, DJT made a second appeal within 16 hours for a meeting with Xi: @realDonaldTrump: If President Xi would meet directly and personally with the protesters, there would be a happy and enlightened ending to the Hong Kong problem. I have no doubt!

ESUs and stocks slid until manipulators boosted ESUs and stocks 10 minutes before the European close.

Prior to the rally for the European close, major indices, except for the DJUA (+1% at the time) were negative.  Trump’s trade-hype tweets and the prospect of more Fed rate cuts are losing their efficacy.

DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach warns Fed rate cuts will not stop U.S. recession

“To say that (rate cuts) are going to stop a recession is flawed,” Gundlach said. “Once the Fed is in easing mode, it is already too late. You already have a recession gaining momentum.”…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-funds-doubleline-gundlach/doubleline-ceo-jeffrey-gundlach-warns-fed-rate-cuts-will-not-stop-u-s-recession-idUSKCN1V42DY

Why is a Fed President opining that the stock decline is overdone?  This is unseemly but revealing. Bullard also said inflation expectations are too low; he wants to take action to boost inflation; we pay attention to markets and data; we’re in the midst of a global slowdown; the trade war is creating uncertainty and the flight to safety; the fundamentals of the US economy are pretty good.

Late ESU rallies occur regularly; and ESUs tend to rally late on the day prior to expiration.

@BloombergTV: The S&P 500 has swung more than one percent for eleven straight days. Are markets investing too much in every trade headline?  [wicked volatility is NOT the sign of a healthy market.

@Schuldensuehner: GE shares fell as much as 15% after fraud investigator Harry Markopolos, who blew the whistle on Bernard Madoff’s Ponzi scheme, said comp was concealing deep problems. Markopolos accused GE of hiding $38.1bn in potential losses.  https://reut.rs/2H398An

GE CEO calls Markopolos report accusing company of fraud pure ‘market manipulation’ https://cnb.cx/305B65R

Powell is scheduled on August 23 to speak at the KC Fed’s annual Jackson Hole, WY soiree.

For decades, we noted that markets are regularly manipulated.  Street stooges and dilettantes have habitually debunked the notion that markets are manipulated.  They are wrong or duplicitous.

Kraft and Mondelēz Global to Pay $16 Million in Wheat Manipulation Case

In late summer 2011, Kraft and Mondelēz developed, approved, and executed a manipulative strategy to purchase and stand for delivery on more than 3,000 futures contracts (approximately $90 million) of Spring Red Wheat (SRW) in the December 2011 expiration to send the market a false signal that the defendants had demand for — and would use — futures wheat to source the defendants’ wheat supply 

requirements in their Toledo mill… https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7996-19

30 min before ESUs opened last night: Trump Says He Plans to Talk Soon with China’s Xi on Trade

“They would like to do something,” Trump said…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-15/trump-says-he-plans-to-talk-very-soon-with-china-s-xi-on-trade

@realDonaldTrump: If the Dow drops 1,000 points in two days, the President should be impeached immediately!   12:01 PM – 6 Nov 2012

@jennfranconews: Trump says he’s not concerned about a possible recession as a result from a trade war with China, adding “the longer the trade war goes on, the weaker China gets and the stronger we get.”

Today is option expiry and a summer Friday during peak vacation season.  Usually stocks rally early; the afternoon is a total crapshoot.  Due to peak summer vacation season, afternoon absenteeism will be high.

After the severe equity carnage on Wednesday, US stock indices were mixed (Nasdaq, DJTA and Russell 2000 declined) despite positive verbal incantations by Trump, Bullard and ECB official Olli Rehn.  Also, the S&P 500 Index had a lower high and a lower low on Thursday.

Most importantly, the DJIA close 10 points below its 200-day MA of 25589.41.  The DJTA is 505 points (4.92%) below its 200 DMA.  The Russell 2000 is 3.76% below its 200 DMA.  The NY FANG+ Index is 3.6% below its 200 DMA while Nasdaq is 2.6% above its 200 DMA.  In yesterday’s missive we highlighted the negative Nasdaq breadth divergence.  The S&P 500 Index is 1.75% above its 200 DMA.  The KBW Bank Index is at its lowest level since January.  Obviously, the US stock market is in a very perilous technical state.

The DJTA closed less than 5 points above its critical June 3 close of 9759.86.  A downside breach of this number would generate a Dow Theory Sell Signal alert.  If the DJIA would then close below its June 3 close of 24819.78 (~240 points), a Dow Theory Sell Signal would be triggered.

The S&P 500 Index low of 2825.51 is extremely important support.  A meaningful downside breach of this number could unleash expiry-related (gamma) selling.

The titanic risk in the coming weeks & months is that lower Fed rates are ineffective for both stocks and the economy.  An even bigger risk would be that lower rates harm banks and the banking system.

The yuan ref rate is 7.0312 (7.0306 exp.).  ESUs are +14.25 at 21:30 ET on another DJT China tweet.

The S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 2944; 100-day MA: 2906; 150-day MA: 2850; 200-day MA: 2797

The DJIA 50-day MA: 26,604; 100-day MA: 26,296; 150-day MA: 25,974; 200-day MA: 25,590

S&P 500 Index support: 2837-39, 2830-32, 2822-25, 2810, 2800, 2797, 2780, 2770, 2762

Resistance: 2856-60, 2873, 2880, 2894-2900, 2920, 2930, 2943-45, 2955, 2963, 2970, 2980, 2990

Expected economic data: July Housing Starts 1.257m, Permits 1.27m; UM Sentiment 97; Deere is expected to report 2.84 for its Q3 earnings

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames

Monthly: Trender is positive;MACD is negative – a close below 2502.93 triggers a sell signal

Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 2816.78 triggers a sell signal

Daily: Trender andMACD are negative -a close above 3010.75 triggers a buy signal

Hourly: Trender andMACD are negative -a close above 2884.35 triggers a buy signal

Son Of Clinton Preacher Worked For Intel Agency And Was Suspected To Be A Mole In Hillary Email Probe — Now He Works For Trump’s ODNI – An investigator for the ICIG, Frank Rucker, told Senate investigators the office suspected their ICIG colleague Paul Wogaman, the son of the Bill and Hillary Clinton’s longtime pastor and adviser, was leaking… On Feb. 9, 2016, Clinton’s lawyer David Kendall wrote to Cheryl Mills, another top aide and lawyer: “Just talked to [redacted] — about our favorite son. He’s meeting with OSC today, which is good and a step in the right direction, but nothing yet public… Mills forwarded the email to John Podesta, Brian Fallon and other Clinton aides…

https://dailycaller.com/2019/08/15/clinton-mole-emails-preacher-odni-inspector-general/

Autopsy finds broken bones in Jeffrey Epstein’s neck, deepening questions around his death

Among the bones broken in Epstein’s neck was the hyoid bone, which in men is near the Adam’s apple… they are more common in victims of homicide by strangulation, the experts said…

    In a larger study of suicidal hangings of young-adults and middle-aged people in India, conducted from 2010 to 2013, hyoid damage was found in just 16 of 264 cases, or six percent…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/autopsy-finds-broken-bones-in-jeffrey-epsteins-neck-deepening-questions-around-his-death/2019/08/14/d09ac934-bdd9-11e9-b873-63ace636af08_story.html

Biden allies float scaling back events to limit gaffes [Similar to what Hillary did in 2016 due to health]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/457486-biden-allies-float-scaling-back-events-to-limit-gaffes

@drawandstrike: The Senate Judiciary Committee has now released documents that contain information that verifies that yes indeed, then-Secretary of State Clinton was having all her emails copied and forwarded to a Chinese companies’ email account.https://www.grassley.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2019-08-14%20Staff%20memo%20to%20CEG%20RHJ%20-%20ICIG%20Interview%20Summary%20RE%20Clinton%20Server.pdf

House Judiciary Chair Nadler continues to harass Team Trump, firing off subpoenas for Corey Lewandowski and Rick Dearborn ‘for obstructing Mueller’s probe’ – even though Lewandowski was NOT employed in the WH and exited as DJT’s campaign manager in June 2016!!!

It appears that Senate Republicans are finally retaliating against Dems’ House investigative abuses.  Senate Finance Chair Grassley has asked Mnuchin to probe Hunter Biden’s China ties.

The direct involvement of Mr. Hunter Biden and Mr. Heinz in the acquisition of Henniges by the Chinese government creates a potential conflict of interest… The appearance of potential conflicts in this case is particularly troubling given Mr. Biden’s and Mr. Heinz’s history of investing in and collaborating with Chinese companies, including at least one posing significant national security concerns…

https://www.finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/2019-08-14%20CEG%20to%20Treasury%20(AVIC%20CFIUS).pdf

In North Philly standoff, alleged [6] cop shooter Maurice Hill has a long criminal [gun] history

https://www.inquirer.com/news/philadelphia-police-shootings-six-shot-suspect-maurice-hill-20190815.html

Despite the facts about the non-enforcement of gun laws, the Philly mayor called for new gun laws!

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1161852815880466432

@realDonaldTrump: The Philadelphia shooter should never have been allowed to be on the streets. He had a long and very dangerous criminal record… Long sentence – must get much tougher on street crime

Trump-Appointed US Attorney Blames Philadelphia DA for Police Shooting

“We’ve now endured over a year and a half of the worst kinds of slander against law enforcement — the DA routinely calls police and prosecutors corrupt and racist, even ‘war criminals’ that he compares to Nazis,” McSwain wrote in a shocking statement. “This vile rhetoric puts our police in danger…” https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/trump-philadelphia-us-attorney-blames-da-police-shooting

Philadelphia crowd taunts police as six officers are shot and two held hostage by AK-47 gunman…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7357885/Active-shooter-holding-two-cops-hostage-inside-Philadelphia-home-shooting-SIX-officers.html

Chicago @Trib_ed_board: Editorial: The first weekend of August 2018, 75 people were shot, 13 of them fatally. These are difficult cases to crack, but just five arrests after a year of investigating? That poor result reflects CPD’s broader struggle to apprehend shooting suspects.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/editorials/ct-editorial-chicago-police-clearance-rates-violence-20190814-z5mztuzafjdylglt5vuh57aemi-story.html

Ex-Dem Alderman @BobFiorettiChi response to Tribune editorial: It WILL all get worse… And until the @Trib_ed_board takes a long, hard look in the mirror and stops endorsing and supporting people like Kim Foxx-enabler-in-chief Toni Preckwinkle, our problems will continue

De-policing, de-prosecution and de-confinement are the pandering protocols in most large US cities.

Remember, Soros has spent millions on DA elections over the past few years.

Soros Implementing His Radical Leftist Agenda by Investing in Criminal Justice   June 11, 2019

From Texas to Philadelphia to Virginia, Soros has reportedly spent millions in backing candidates for district attorneys or prosecutors “Philadelphia is the laboratory where this experiment of Soros funded prosecutors is playing out,” said William McSwain the US Attorney for Eastern District of Pennsylvania.

https://saraacarter.com/soros-implementing-his-radical-leftist-agenda-by-investing-in-criminal-justice/

@CBSNews: Trump on gun control: I think we need to start building mental institutions again https://cbsn.ws/2iuAAgA

Coroner: Dayton shooter had drugs in his system [cocaine, alcohol, anti-depressants (once again)]

https://apnews.com/c11e52c94be0473d9aed759275c3febe

Mitt Romney Forms Alliance with Top Dem to Go After Trump

The Daily Beast reports that Romney held a secret meeting former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid — and they discussed how to get rid of Trump… Reid lamented that he was “pretty damn worried” about Trump winning re-election in 2020.  Reid has also reportedly been reaching out to certain congressional Republicans in an attempt to persuade them to publicly rebuke Trump…

https://trendingpolitics.com/mitt-romney-forms-alliance-with-top-dem-to-go-after-trump/

Investigators believe five poultry companies violated immigration law, search warrants say

Since 2002, federal officials have reported more than 350 encounters or arrests of undocumented people who said they worked at two of the plants, Koch Foods and Peco Foods… [Is this why the Koch Bros are pro Amnesty/illegal immigration and anti-Trump?]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/15/investigators-believe-five-poultry-companies-violated-immigration-law-search-warrants-say/

After ICE Raids, US Citizens Flock to Jobs – Koch has since collaborated with the Mississippi Department of Employment Security (MDES), holding a job fair to recruit new, legal, workers, according to the Associated Press…https://dailycaller.com/2019/08/13/ice-raids-jobs/

end

Let us close with this terrific commentary courtesy of Greg hunter of USA Watchdog as he describes two huge entities in big trouble:

i) Deutsche bank

ii) General Electric

i would like to add at least two more:

iii) Boeing

iv) HSBC

(courtesy Greg Hunter/USAWatchdog)

GE Fraud, DB Trouble & Bo Polny on Coming Biblical Market Crash

By Greg Hunter On August 16, 2019

If you wanted another sign the economy is not doing well, look no further than the latest allegations General Electric is a “bigger fraud than Enron.”  The person making this charge is Harry Markopolos who uncovered the $60 billion Bernie Madoff scam years ago. This is a DOW 30 stock, and downside of this news, if proven true, is dire.

Deutsche Bank (DB), the financial institution the International Monetary Fund (IMF) called the “most systemically dangerous bank in the world” back in 2016, hit a fresh new all-time low of $6.44 per share. Charles Nenner predicted that if DB went below $6.40, it would head to $0 in the not-so-distant-future. Will world renowned, market cycle expert Charles Nenner be proven correct?  This also has dire market implications!

Analyst Bo Polny, market cycle expert that applies the Bible to his work, says a “worldwide market crash is coming in 2019.” Polny says gold and silver prices are headed to new all-time highs, and there will be severe market down turns coming in the months ahead. This is a first ever live interview included within the Wrap-Up.

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about the big financial stories of the week and also interviews Bo Polny of Gold2020Forecast. com about a market crash of Biblical proportions coming soon.

-END-

Well that is all for today

I will see you MONDAY night.

 

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