AUGUST 19/JACKSON HOLE MEETING THIS FRIDAY AND THUS A REASON TO WHACK THE PRECIOUS METALS: GOLD DOWN $11.20 TO $1502.00//SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TO $16.96//MORE PROTESTS THIS WEEKEND IN HONG KONG//INVESTORS ARE TAKING THEIR CASH OUT OF HONG KONG//CASS FREIGHT INDEX DOWN FOR 8TH STRAIGHT MONTH//IRANIAN OIL CARGO SHIP SET FREE IN GIBRALTAR//MORE EPSTEIN STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT AS WELL AS OTHER SWAMP STORIES//

GOLD:$1502.00 DOWN $11.20(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver: $16.96 DOWN 21 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1496.20

 

silver:  $16.88

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 403/824

CONTRACT: AUGUST 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,512.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/16/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 08/20/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 116
323 H HSBC 764
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 19
661 C JP MORGAN 403
685 C RJ OBRIEN 2
686 C INTL FCSTONE 2 144
690 C ABN AMRO 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 58 100
800 C MAREX SPEC 21
905 C ADM 17
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 824 824
MONTH TO DATE: 6,053

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  AUGUST CONTRACT: 824 NOTICE(S) FOR 82400 OZ (2.562 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  6053 NOTICES FOR 605,300 OZ  (18.827 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR AUGUST

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR NIL  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1993 for   9,965,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10701 UP 397 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10672 UP $385

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE  SIZED 1507 CONTRACTS FROM 228,803 DOWN TO 227,296 WITH A 9 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

AUGUST: 0 FOR SEPT: 961,DEC 138  AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1099 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1099 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1099 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 5.495 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 9 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

9.975   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

 

WE HAD ATTEMPTED COVERING OF SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX ON FRIDAY WITH SOME SUCCESS..AND SOME  SPREADING ACCUMULATION.

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER FOR SILVER.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF AUGUST:

24,503 CONTRACTS (FOR 13 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 24,503 CONTRACTS) OR 122.51 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1885 CONTRACTS OR 9.425 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  122.51 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 17.50% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1435.03   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1507, WITH THE SMALL 9 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX TRADING /FRIDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1099 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE AGAIN LOST: 408 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1099 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1507  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 9 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.15 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.136 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 162% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE HAD SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 9.975 MILLION OZ
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 6528  CONTRACTS, TO 599,357 ACCOMPANYING THE  $7,35 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING FRIDAY// /

THE SPREADING ACCUMULATION OPERATION IS NOW IN FULL SWING  ONLY FOR SILVER BUT LITTLE WAS ACCOMPLISHED IN THAT ENDEAVOUR TODAY. LIQUIDATION OF SPREADING CONTRACTS WILL COMMENCE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE….. THE LIQUIDATION( AND ACCUMULATION) PHASE FOR COMEX OI GOLD  STOPS FOR THE AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH /

 

 

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 4332 CONTRACTS: AUGUST 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  4332 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 599,357,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2196 CONTRACTS: 6528 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 4332 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 2196 CONTRACTS OR 219,600 OZ OR 6.830 TONNES.  FRIDAY WE HAD A GOOD LOSS OF $7.35 IN GOLD TRADING….AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A FAIR GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 2.146  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER TRYING TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. THEY WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ENDEAVOUR ON FRIDAY (LONDON PUT TO BED AT 10 AM EST)  HOWEVER IN SILVER, THE BANKERS WERE IN SHEAR FRIGHT AS THEY CONTINUED ON THEIR JOURNEY OF COVERING THEIR MASSIVE SILVER SHORTS

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST : 142,527 CONTRACTS OR 14,252,700 oz OR 443.31 TONNES (13 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 10,963 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 443.31 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 443.31/3550 x 100% TONNES =12.48% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     3,954.00  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 6528 WITH THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK FRIDAY($7.35)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 4332 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 4332 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 2196 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

4332 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 6528 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE LOSS IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 6.830 TONNES). ..AND THIS INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE  LOSS IN PRICE OF $7.35 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  824 notice(s) filed upon for 82,400 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

 

A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD
A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD AND THIS WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY:

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1507 CONTRACTS from 228,803 DOWN TO 227,296 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

OUR SHORT DERIVATIVE BANKERS ARE NOW IN DEEP TROUBLE AS THEY ARE TERRIBLY OFFSIDE AND NEED ASSISTANCE FROM THE GOVERNMENT (FED) TO PROVIDE THE NECESSARY COLLATERAL TO CARRY THAT SHORT POSITION..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST, ALTHOUGH NEGLIGIBLE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY, AND THEY STOPPED ALL  SPREADING ACTIVITY  IN COMEX GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST….

I WROTE THE FOLLOWING ON FRIDAY:

“LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: I HAVE WAITED A LONG TIME TO SEE THIS: OUR BANKER FRIENDS HAVE NOW COMPLETELY CAPITULATED AND THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SILVER SHORTFALL..”

AND WITH OUR NEW COMEX/EFP RESULTS IT LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE CARRYING ON WITH THAT ACTIVITY..

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 961 ; DEC 138 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1099 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSSAT THE COMEX OF 1507  CONTRACTS TO THE 1099 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 408 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2.04 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST AT 9.740 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 9 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 1099 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 59.27 POINTS OR 2.10%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 557.62 POINTS OR 2/17%   /The Nikkei closed UP 144.35 POINTS OR 0.71%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .97%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0484 /Oil UP TO 55.17 dollars per barrel for WTI and 58.81 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0484 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0553 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)CHINA/USA/TAIWAN

This is certainly not to the liking of Beijing:  Trump approves the $8 billion dollar sale of F 16’s to Taiwan.  Congress is urged to move quickly on the sale as they are afraid of an invasion by Mainland China

(zerohedge)

ii)HONG KONG

Tourism in Hong Kong has been decimated amid the escalating protests.  Hong Kong’s economy depends on tourism to a high degree
(zerohedge)

iii)More and more Hong Kong citizens are taking their money and moving it out of the city and country(zerohedge)

iv)Trump is set to renew licences allowing USA companies to do business with Huawei.  The previous agreements ends on the 19th of August and Trump is set to renew licenses for 90 days.

(zerohedge)

v)Wilbur Ross confirms another 90 day delay of the Huawei backlist

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

Project fear returns to England re a leaked report which shows that that the UK will face food, fuel and drug shortages in a no deal Brexit  scenario

 

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAN/GIBRALTAR/USA/Saturday
The US unveils a seizure warrant for Iran’s Grace one tanker
(zerohedge)
ii))Gibraltar/Saturday

Gibraltar slams the door on that USA warrant and they are now set to release the tanker

(zerohedge)

iii)Sunday/Afghanistan/USA

Trump set to review controversial USA Taliban peace deal.  Some Neocons are calling it a betrayal. The USA should remove itself from this quagmire

(zerohedge)

iv)Iran/Iran/UAE

USA joins secret talks between Israel and the UAE on thwarting Iran

(courtesy Ditz/Antiwar.com

v)SYRIA/TURKEY

It looks like we may have a full scale war between Syria and Turkey as Turkish forces invade Syria tryoing to aid the rebels in Idlib province.
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

a)Another good sign of global contraction:  the Cass Freight index declines for the 8th straight month.  It is also a good indicator for negative GDP in the next two quarters

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

b)Aussie Central Bank

Aussie Reserve Bank basically admits it is out of ammunition.
(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

Interesting:  the USA sanctions against Iran is backfiring:  it is leading to a strong gain in Russian oil exports

(courtesy Iran Slav/OilPrice.com)

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)If MMT (Modern Monetary theory) would ever be implemented, it would be a boon to gold

(Slater/Australian Financial Review/Melbourne/GATA)

ii)My goodness, what a novel idea.  Papua New Guinea is planning to retain 30% of its gold production and to peg its currency to gold

(Barrett/Reuters).

III)Indian citizens are too smart for this..it has been tried countless times and failed..the Indian government wants more enthusiasm for paper gold.

(Sahgal/Times of India/GATA)

iv)A good explanation from Mish Shedlock on the true value of gold and how it determines its value in this present day fraud. Simply gold is a measure of your faith in central banks…he is absolutely correct

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)If you will recall on Friday we reported on 4 major operations which could crash the entire global markets in one fall swoop.  The 4 entities are:

1.HSBC

2 Deutsche bank

3. Boeing

4. We Work

The financial times discusses by the 4th is a huge problem  If they fail to pay rent, the game is over as the globe implodes

(London’s Financial Times)

b)Simon Black also delves into We work

(Simon Black)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)It is official the Epstein death is ruled suicide by hanging. I am not so sure she is correct. Still we have not heard of an explanation on the shrieking noise coming from Epstein’s cell

(zerohedge)

b)The Epstein prison guards are not cooperating with the Dept of Justice probe. In the Epstein case, the hyoid bone was shattered which normally occurs in strangulation and not hanging.  Also the noose around the neck was lower subject to the location of the hyoid bone

(zeorhedge)

c)A.G. Barr fires Prisons Chief

(zerohedge)

d)Meet another Epstein associates:  Jean Luc Brunel

(zerohedge

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 6528 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 602,243 ACCOMPANYING THE LOSS OF $7.35 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // COMEX TRADING/RAID)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4332 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR AUGUST; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 4332   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  4332 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 2196TOTALCONTRACTS IN THAT 4332 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE 6528 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE GOLD PRICE. WE EXPERIENCED ZERO SHORT COVERING IN GOLD AS  LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS TRYING THEIR LUCK ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND LOOKING FOR METAL. HOWEVER IN SILVER THEY CAPITULATED AS THEY ARE FRANTICALLY TRYING TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL

 

NET LOST ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  2196 CONTRACTS OR 219,600 OZ OR 6.830 TONNES.

 

 

 

We are now in the  active contract month of AUGUST and here the open interest stands at 1606 CONTRACTS as we SURPRISINGLY GAINED A WHOPPING AND FULLY PAID 505 contracts.  We had 24 notices filed yesterday so we GAINED AN ASTRONOMICAL 529  contracts or 52,900 oz of gold (1.64 tones) that will  stand for delivery.  Obviously a banker needed to find scarce supplies of physical gold on this side of the pond. Generally bankers  jump queue in order to put out fires located elsewhere.  They jump ahead of investors already standing for metal.

 

 

The next non active month is September and here the OI FELL by 27 contracts DOWN TO 3604.  The next active delivery month is October and here the OI FELL by 673 contracts UP to 49,434.

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 824 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  82400 OZ. (2.562 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1507 CONTRACTS FROM 228,803 DOWN TO 227,296 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A SMALL 9 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//FRIDAY.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.  HERE WE HAVE 2 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 47 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 47 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED A 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS…  THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 4166 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 104,020 CONTRACTS. OCTOBER RECEIVED ANOTHER 9 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 186.  NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 2271 CONTRACTS UP TO 88,645.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 284,592  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  341,874  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  AUGUST/GOLD

AUGUST 19/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 964.505 oz

BRINKS

MANFRA

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
824 notice(s)
 82400 OZ
(2.562 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
781 contracts
(78,100 oz)
2.429 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
6053 notices
605,300 OZ
18.827 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 2 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into brinks 160.755 oz 5 kilobars

iii) Into Manfra: 803.75 oz 25 kilobars

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 964.505  oz

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

 

 

i) we had 1 adjustment today
i) Out of HSBC:  76,305.244 oz was adjusted into the dealer account from the customer account of HSBC
FOR THE AUGUST 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 824 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 403 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6053) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  AUGUST. (1605 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (824 x 100 oz per contract) equals 683,400 OZ OR 21.25 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of AUGUST

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (6053 x 100 oz)  + (1605)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (824 x 100 oz )which equals 683,400 oz standing OR 21.25 TONNES in this  active delivery month of AUGUST.

We SURPRISINGLY GAINED 529 contracts or an additional 52,900 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. GOOD LUCK TO OUR BANKERS ON THEIR ENDEAVOUR TO FIND GOLD ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND,..

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 20.63 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 21.25  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING//

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  663,384.152 oz or  20.63 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,013,410.086 oz 249.26 tonnes

 

IN THE LAST 35 MONTHS 110 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

 

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
AUGUST 19 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 628,846.171 oz
CNT
DELAWARE
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
NIL oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(235,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2 contracts
 10,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1993 contracts

9,965,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into EVERYBODY ELSE: 0

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: NIL  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT:  25,382.916 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 600,402.540 oz

III) Out of Delaware: 3060.715 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 628,846.540  oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

i) Out of CNT: 4916.700 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account of CNT and this landed into the customer account of CNT

 

total dealer silver:  92.830 million

total dealer + customer silver:  311.980 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the AUGUST 2019. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR NIL oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1993 x 5,000 oz = 9,965,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST. (2) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the AUGUST/2019 contract month: 1993 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (2)- number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 9,975,000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month.  

 

WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS BUT ARE RESOLUTE LONGS STANDING FOR SILVER DELIVERY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  98,585 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 83,578 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 83,578 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 417 million  OZ 59.6% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -0.50% ((AUGUST 19/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.04% to NAV (AUGUST 19/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -/50%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.79 TRADING 14.28/DISCOUNT 3.45

 

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WE GOT BACK 7.63 TONNES OUT OF 11.11 TONNES LOST ON WEDNESDAY( A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

 

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY///INVENTORY RISES TO 824.89 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.50: A HUGE INVENTORY WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD LEAVES THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 818.14 TONNES

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00: A MASSIVE  DEPOSIT OF 11.44 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 814.62

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.55 TODAY: A BIG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.81 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.18 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY: A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.37 TONNES

JULY 16: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 15: WITH GOLD UP $1.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $5.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 11.WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.65 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 6.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 9/WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS, A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES WHICH WAS USED IN THE FUTILE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER THIS MORNING//INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.08 TONNES

JULY 8/ WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY FALLS TO 796.97 TONNES

JULY 5TH/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INV RESTS AT 798.44 TONNES

JULY 3// WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  798.44

 

JULY 2. WITH GOLD UP $18.90 A HUGE “PAPER” DEPOSIT OF 6.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

JULY 1: WITH GOLD DOWN $24.70 A HUGE “PAPER GOLD” WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 794.04 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

AUGUST 19/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 843/41 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 646 TRADING DAYS: 91.99 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 546- TRADING DAYS: A NET 74.88 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 16/: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 15/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/2019: WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 468000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 26.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:  A HUGE 1.03 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER LEAVES THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 357.183 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: ANOTHER MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.276 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 346.980 MILLION OZ

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.668 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.704 MILLION OZ//

JULY 17: WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 29 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.518 MILLION OZ/INTO THE SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.036 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16: WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY: 15  WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 9/WITH SILVER UP A SMALL 7 CENTS A GIGANTIC INVENTORY GAIN OF 4.026 MILLION OZ/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ AND NOW IT SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR THAT THE SLV ( AND GLD ARE FRAUDS)

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328,492 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS WE STRANGELY HAD A HUGE INVENTORY GAIN OF 2,234 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.492 MILLION OZ

JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS A HUGE INCREASE IN INVENTORY..INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.330 MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 936,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 323.330 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 19/2019:

 

Inventory 380.154 MILLION OZ

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.01/ and libor 6 month duration 2.02

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .01

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1,87%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.95

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.08

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

did not publish today

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

If MMT (Modern Monetary theory) would ever be implemented, it would be a boon to gold

(Slater/Australian Financial Review/Melbourne/GATA)

How modern monetary theory could spike a new bull cycle in gold

 Section: 

By Chad Slater
Australian Financial Review, Melbourne
Monday, August 19, 2019

The year is 2003 and a long argument has ensued over gold and inflation. Gold is trading at $US370 an ounce, having recently traded at lows of $US250. I am locked in a debate with an analyst colleague who is adamant that gold is going to soar on the back of the coming inflation from interest rates near zero.

I have been lucky enough to work with a diverse range of personalities. Without naming names, one ex-sell side analyst taught me how to model stocks in such a lucid and coherent way that my analysts now dare not stray from the colour coding I was taught.

… 

At the other end of the spectrum, I learnt just as much from the aforementioned analyst who retrained from being an engineer after reading The Australian Financial Review and deciding “I could do this” — as you do. He is an out-of-the-box thinker and a natural contrarian, someone who thinks of things well ahead of others, sometimes to his own financial detriment.

I argued that there can be no inflation without deflation. What I meant was that with independent central banks having stable inflation mandates, they would halt any rise in inflation. Only if they either removed or were forced to remove this (by virtue of losing independence) could we have inflation.

He of course had the last laugh, as gold has quadrupled since. But on the inflation point, there’s early and then there’s early. He was at least 16 years early on the inflation argument, but we may be getting to that point soon. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/how-modern-monetary-theory-co…

END

My goodness, what a novel idea.  Papua New Guinea is planning to retain 30% of its gold production and to peg its currency to gold

(Barrett/Reuters).

Papua New Guinea would keep some of its gold production and peg its currency to the metal

 Section: 

Wait until the IMF tells them it’s against the rules to link your currency to gold, and unfortunately PNG is a member. But then why not resign?

* * *

Papua New Guinea Aims to Retain 30% of Exported Gold, May Change Currency Pegs

By Jonathan Barrett
Reuters
Monday, August 19, 2019

https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL4N25F074

SYDNEY, Australia — Papua New Guinea wants to retain at least 30% of the gold it currently exports as it transforms its economy under a new government leadership, the country’s commerce minister said Monday.

PNG was the world’s 14th largest gold producer in 2018, according to the World Gold Council. Its assets include the Porgera gold mine, majority controlled by a joint venture between Barrick Gold Corp and Zijin Mining Group, which has a lease currently up for renewal.

… 

PNG’s minister for commerce and industry, Wera Mori, told an investor forum in Sydney that the resource-rich nation was developing policies to keep more of the commodities it produces in the country to improve its economy.

“We are in the process of developing the framework to retain at least 30% of our gold that we export every year,” Mori told the forum.

Mori said that PNG would also consider pegging its currency, the kina, to gold, rather than the U.S. dollar.

PNG’s central bank currently fixes its currency to a narrow U.S. dollar band, propping up the kina’s value while creating a shortage of dollars available in the Pacific nation.

James Marape, the former finance minister who became PNG’s new leader in May after winning a vote in parliament, has put some of the world’s biggest resources companies on notice over a perceived lack of wealth flowing from their projects back to communities.

This includes sending a team to renegotiate its Papua liquid natural gas agreement with French oil major Total SA.

* * *

END

Indian citizens are too smart for this..it has been tried countless times and failed..the Indian government wants more enthusiasm for paper gold.

(Sahgal/Times of India/GATA)

India’s central bank demands more enthusiasm for gold paperizing campaign

 Section: 

Scheme on Gold Monetisation to Get More Teeth

By Ram Sahgal
The Times of India, Mumbai
Monday, August 19, 2019

The Reserve Bank of India’s direction to all lenders to promote and publicise the Gold Monetisation Scheme from their branches underscores the intent of the banking regulator to make the scheme a success, said officials from two private banks.

The RBI on August 16 directed all scheduled commercial banks (except regional rural banks) to promote the scheme, which was introduced on October 22, 2015, to replace the scheme introduced in 1999.

“All designated banks shall give adequate publicity to the Scheme through their branches, websites, and other channels,” the RBI said.

An official from a private sector bank said this “underscored” the importance the RBI was giving to the scheme. Until the August 16 circular, banks were accepting gold deposits under the scheme but were not actively promoting it, the banker added.

… For the remainder of the report:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/news/scheme-on-…

..

iii) Other physical stories:

A good explanation from Mish Shedlock on the true value of gold and how it determines its value in this present day fraud. Simply gold is a measure of your faith in central banks…he is absolutely correct

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Three Things Gold Isn’t

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Swings in the US dollar have no long-term impact in the price of gold. Nor is gold an inflation hedge.

Three Points

  • December 2004: US Dollar Index 108, Gold $435
  • April 2009: US Dollar Index 108, Gold $883
  • November 2014: US Dollar Index 108, Gold $1182

Gold vs Trade-Weighted Dollar Index 1973-Present

While gold generally moves opposite the dollar in day-to-day fluctuations, long term impacts are nonexistent.

Here is the chart with the index of gold and the dollar set to the same base year, 1997.

Gold vs Trade-Weighted Dollar Index

Gold vs the CPI

Gold fell from $850 to $250 from 1980 to 2000 with inflation every step of the way.

What happened?

People had faith in the great “Maestro“, Alan Greenspan.

But, But, But

But Mish, inflation is understated.

Indeed it is. Central banks are clueless regarding how to measure inflation. Bubbles are a direct consequence of inflation.

Note the implication: Because inflation is higher than reported, gold is even less of an inflation hedge!

One Exception

There is one exception to the rule gold is not an inflation hedge.

The exception is extremely high rates of inflation, especially hyperinflation.

In case of hyperinflation, nearly any storable physical asset is a hedge: cheese, cigarettes, gasoline, etc.

There is nothing unique about gold as an inflation hedge in case of hyperinflation.

Three Things Gold Isn’t

  1. A function of the US dollar in any meaningful way
  2. A measure of inflation
  3. A good hedge against inflation, except extreme inflation and hyperinflation where any storable asset is a hedge.

So What Is It?

Measure of Faith in Central Banks

In addition to being money for thousands of years, the price of gold is primarily a measure of faith in central banks.

If you believe central banks have everything under control, don’t buy gold.

But Why Have Faith?

  1. “Zero Has No Meaning” Says Greenspan: I Disagree, So Does Gold
  2. 30-Year Long Bond Yield Crashes Through 2% Mark to Record Low 1.98%
  3. More Currency Wars: Swiss Central Bank Poised to Cut Interest Rate to -1.0%
  4. Inverted Negative Yields in Germany and Negative Rate Mortgages.
  5. Fed Trapped in a Rate-Cutting Box: It’s the Debt Stupid

If you believe monetary madness, negative interest rates, and negative rate mortgages prove central banks do not have things under control, then you know what to do.

Buy Gold.

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0484/ PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0553   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 59.27 POINTS OR 2.10%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 557.62 POINTS OR 2.17%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 144.35 POINTS OR 0.71%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.19/Euro RISES TO 1.1103

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.22/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.58/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 55.17 and Brent: 58.81

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.65%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.47% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.13%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.03: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.04

3k Gold at $1495.90 silver at: 16.86   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 42/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.93

3m oil into the 55 dollar handle for WTI and 58 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.58 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9794 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0876 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.65%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.61% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.11%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.5897..

Futures Soar, Treasuries Slide On German Stimulus Hopes, Chinese Rate Reform

It is a sea of green out there to start the week, and we have Germany’s generous taxpayers and Chinese rate reform to thank for today’s ramp.

 

With central banks now almost out of ammo, every algo is attuned to even the faintest hint of fiscal stimulus, and nowhere more so than “stingy” Europe, which is why the trial balloon two weeks ago and again last week out of Spiegel, that Germany would unleash billions in stimulus spending in case of a recession will be repeated again and again, and overnight it was Bloomberg’s turn to report that Germany was readying a stimulus plan as a contingency plan for a “deep recession”, helping send futures and global stocks sharply higher.

It was all about Germany over the weekend too, with the Bloomberg news following an overnight report that Germany’s finmin and SDP leadership contender, Olaf Scholz, said in Berlin that “the last crisis cost €50bn … we can muster that [again].” However, as Mizuho wrote overnight, “we are sceptical of a sustained market impact, as it is conditional on a crisis” with the Japanese bank adding that “the point which is being missed is that said German fiscal stimulus is conditional on a recession, and existing law already allows for this. The ECB would probably restart QE before the German fiscal taps were at risk of being nudged open. We suspect the market is simply trading the headlines in a kneejerk manner and the summer liquidity is allowing for the moves to go unfaded

 

Mizuho is right, and while the German news is largely meaningless – especially when one considers that of the €50BN stimulus, about half or more would have to be spent to shore up Deutsche Bank (as it would only be unlocked in a “deep recession”), for now it has provided enough fuel to send global markets and US equity futures sharply higher, and to steepened the curve, sending 30Y yield back over 2.00%, especially after news from late Friday that the US treasury reached out to dealers again seeking feedback for 50Y or 100Y issuance, even though as we noted on Friday, longer issuance has been repeatedly shunned in the past, most recently 2017, citing a lack of stable demand. In 2017 this caused a 7bp round trip (up then down) in three days for 5s30s.

 

 

 

News of the recession-contingent German stimulus sent the EUR to session highs of 1.1114, if not for long…

 

… while the German 30Y yield has soared higher in the past 2 days, rising from -0.30% to as high as -0.10%.

 

In the US, S&P futures advanced alongside the Stoxx Europe 600, which extended its gains to a session high following the Bloomberg Germany stimulus report and amid speculation that economies would prop up stalling growth with fresh stimulus measures, easing pressure on bonds and dampening demand for perceived safe-havens such as gold.

Hopes of government action to stave off fears of recession – triggered by an inversion in the U.S. bond yield curve – grew as China’s central bank unveiled interest rate reforms expected to lower corporate borrowing costs. The prospect of Germany’s coalition government ditching its balanced budget rule to take on new debt and launch stimulus steps also helped the mood, after boosting Wall Street shares on Friday.

Over the weekend, the PBoC announced a new interest rate reform plan which will make the Loan Prime Rate the new Benchmark Reference Rate to be used by banks for lending which is aimed at supporting funding as well as lower borrowing costs for small businesses, while it is to be set monthly (20th of every month) and will be linked to the Medium-term Lending Facility rate. (Newswires) Note: current 1yr LPR stands at 4.31% vs. Benchmark Rate 4.35%. China is to publish the new LPR from August 20th.

The MSCI world equity index gained 0.3%, powered by a 0.8% gain for the Euro STOXX 600. Bourses in London, Frankfurt and Paris rose between 0.7%-0.9%. The optimism was set to spread to Wall Street, too, where futures gauges were pointing to gains of around 1%.

Earlier in the day, the People’s Bank of China’s interest rate reforms – which it is said would help steer borrowing costs lower for companies and support a slowing economy – helped stocks in Shanghai rise 2.1%. MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 1.1% with shares in Hong Kong and China climbing the most in Asia, where jumps across the region were helped by news of Beijing’s plan to reform its interest-rate system and cut borrowing costs. Treasury 10-year yields continued to rise from multiyear lows reached last week, while the Bloomberg dollar index ticked even higher and the pound reversed an early increase. Gold fell, hovering back around the $1,500 level.

Yet even as signs that major economies would act to support growth emboldened investors, some market players cautioned that the boost to markets from expectations of stimulus was fragile.

“You have just got a little bit of portfolio readjustment, a resetting of expectations. The big question is whether it can last,” said Michael Hewson, chief market strategist at CMC Markets. “Talking about fiscal stimulus in Germany is one thing, doing it is something else.”

As investors tiptoed back to riskier assets, gold fell 1% to $1,499.30 per ounce, with U.S. futures for the precious metal also down.

In FX, the dollar index was higher in Asia at 98.201, close to a two-week high reached on Friday, while the Bloomberg dollar index was at session highs above 1210.

The euphoria will probably not last long: with volatility jumping in August, traders’ focus will turn to Fed Chair Powell’s address planned at the Kansas Fed’s annual Jackson Hole gathering on Friday, which will be key to gauging whether U.S. policy makers will add to July’s interest-rate cut. Analysts think Powell’s remarks will be aimed at reassuring nervous markets that the Fed will keep its easing stance and set the stage for more rate cuts.

“What Powell has to say is in focus as the discrepancy remains between what he said on interest rates and what the markets have come to expect the Fed will do,” said Junichi Ishikawa, senior FX strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo.

“This week is an opportunity for, in particular, Chair Powell to straighten up the message and show that they are at one and that there is a clear view about where the economy is going,” Anne Anderson, head of fixed income in Sydney for UBS Asset Management Australia, told Bloomberg TV. “This fear needs to be arrested.”

Over the weekend, While White House economic director Larry Kudlow said recent phone calls between U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators had been “positive,” even though later in the day President Trump suggested he wasn’t ready to sign a deal and linked the discussions to Hong Kong, saying for the first time on camera that it would be harder to reach a deal if there’s a violent conclusion to the protests.

In geopolitical news, US issued a warrant to seize the Iranian oil tanker Grace 1 which was just released by Gibraltar. Subsequently, Iran has warned the US against seizing its oil tanker in open seas, said the Iranian Foreign Ministry

In commodity markets, crude oil prices rose after an attack on a Saudi oil facility by Yemeni separatists on Saturday, with traders also looking for signs that Sino-U.S. trade tensions could ease. Brent crude was up 65 cents, or about 1.1%, at $59.29 a barrel at 0805 GMT.

No major economic data are expected. Estee Lauder and Baidu are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 2,923.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 372.13
  • German 10Y yield rose 4.3 bps to -0.642%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1104
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 6.1 bps to 1.046%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 4.8 bps to 0.129%
  • Brent futures up 1% to $59.21/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.8% to $1,501.21
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 98.20
  • MXAP up 0.8% to 151.93
  • MXAPJ up 1.1% to 493.02
  • Nikkei up 0.7% to 20,563.16
  • Topix up 0.6% to 1,494.33
  • Hang Seng Index up 2.2% to 26,291.84
  • Shanghai Composite up 2.1% to 2,883.10
  • Sensex up 0.7% to 37,595.10
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1% to 6,467.44
  • Kospi up 0.7% to 1,939.90

Top Overnight News

  • Finance Minister Olaf Scholz suggested Germany could muster 50 billion euros ($55 billion) of extra spending in an economic crisis, putting a number on a possible fiscal stimulus for the first time
  • President Trump said the U.S. is “doing very well with China, and talking!” but suggested he wasn’t ready to sign a trade deal, hours after his top economic adviser laid out a potential timeline for the resumption of substantive discussions with Beijing
  • U.K. opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn will promise to do “everything necessary” to prevent a no-deal Brexit. Prime Minister Boris Johnson will travel to Germany and France this week to make clear that Britain is leaving the European Union on Oct. 31 with or without a deal
  • China’s central bank said it’ll start releasing a new reference rate for bank loans, a further step in a long-awaited reform to interest rates that’s set to bring lower borrowing costs to the economy
  • Italy’s anti- establishment Five Star Movement said Sunday that its coalition partner the League — and its leadership — is “no longer a credible interlocutor,” setting the stage for a full-blown split that could realign the nation’s politics
  • Hong Kong protesters turned out in force through heavy rain to march for an 11th straight weekend, as more moderate leaders sought to reset the movement after violent scenes at the airport last week threatened to sap support among the public
  • The Iranian supertanker detained last month on suspicion of hauling oil to Syria in violation of European sanctions set sail from Gibraltar waters after being released by the British territory
  • Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini’s push for power in Italy looks to be running into trouble, with the strongest indication yet that his rivals may be able to forge an alliance to thwart him
  • Trump’s trade policy could be one of the many topics Fed Chairman Powell could talk about in the annual Jackson Hole symposium Friday. Powell is likely to use the gathering to suggest the Fed is ready to cut interest rates
  • Iran warned the U.S. against targeting a supertanker carrying the Middle East country’s oil as the vessel departed Gibraltar after being seized last month by U.K. forces and held in the British territory
  • The 1.1 trillion euro ($1.2 trillion) global pool of negative-yielding corporate debt is failing to entice European companies to borrow at ultra-cheap levels. It shows the uphill battle the ECB faces to revive the region’s economy

Asian equity markets were higher across the board as the region took impetus from last Friday’s firm gains on Wall Street and as composure returns to the market following the recent turmoil. ASX 200 (+1.0%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) were positive in which the tech and energy sectors led the advances and with firm gains seen in the likes of Beach Energy and Lend Lease post-earnings despite a decline in the latter’s profits, as it stressed the strong position of its core business and confirmed several parties are conducting due diligence on its engineering unit. Tokyo sentiment also found relief from the latest Japanese trade figures which showed Exports and Imports continued to contract, albeit at a slower pace than what the market feared. Hang Seng (+2.0%) and Shanghai Comp. (+2.1%) conformed to the positive tone after the PBoC continued its liquidity efforts and announced interest rate reforms in which it will make the new Loan Prime Rate the benchmark rate for bank loans which is aimed at lowering borrowing costs. Furthermore, Hong Kong outperformed despite the continuation of mass protests over the weekend which were of a peaceful nature, while participants await the US decision on Huawei as reports suggested the Trump administration will grant an additional 90-day extension to the licence which allows the Chinese tech firm to conduct some business with US customers. Finally, 10yr JGBs were slightly lower amid the heightened risk appetite but with downside also stemmed by the BoJ’s presence in the market for a total JPY 760bln in 1yr-5yr JGBs.

Top Asian news

  • China Lines Up Lower Borrowing Costs with Revamped Rate System
  • Rebound in China, Hong Kong Stocks Accelerates on Policy Support
  • Huawei’s Three Closest Chinese Rivals Form Rare Partnership
  • Thailand Says Producers Leaving China Offer Hope for its Economy

European equities are higher across the board [Eurostoxx 50 +0.9%] following on from a stellar Asia-Pac handover in which Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. closed higher by 2%. Sectors are all in the green with underperformance seen in some defensive sectors amid the overall risk appetite. Meanwhile, material and energy names outperform amid price action in the base metal and oil complexes; while the European Banking Index has experienced a turnaround from last weeks poor performance as reports around the size of potential fiscal stimulus for Germany (USD 55bln according to Finance Minister Scholz) have provided the first figures to the possible package. As such, the likes of Deutsche Bank (+2.5%) and Commerzbank (+2.4%) are notably firmer this morning. Looking at individual movers, Bpost (-1.5%) shares fell towards the bottom of the Stoxx 600 as its CEO is to reportedly step down in 2020. At the other end of the index, CNH Industrial (+3.2%) rose amid a broker upgrade at Morgan Stanley. Finally, BASF (+1.5%) is among the top DAX performers as its CEO reaffirmed the Co’s intent to steadily increase dividend.

Top European News

  • Welder Shortage Threatens Boris Johnson’s U.K. Nuclear Revival
  • Salvini’s Rivals Are Threatening to Derail Italian Power Grab
  • SNB Sight Deposits Surge, Suggesting Interventions to Curb Franc
  • Thomas Cook Shares Jump as Bailout Partner Swings to Profit

In FX, the Dollar remains firm vs most G10 counterparts and EM currencies, but the index has lost some momentum after reaching 98.341 on Friday and has eased back towards 98.000 within a 98.242-134 range. In truth, trade has been rather muted overall at the start of a week that is relatively light on data/events until Wednesday when FOMC minutes are due and are followed by preliminary PMIs, ECB minutes and the Jackson Hole Symposium.

  • JPY/GBP/NZD/SEK – The major ‘underperformers’ as the Yen extends is retreat from recent lows to 106.65 and close to Fib resistance ahead of DMAs either side of 107.00 amidst a further rebound in US Treasury yields and Japanese trade data showing shallower than forecast declines in both imports and exports. Meanwhile, UK political/no deal Brexit jitters have scuppered Sterling’s revival on the back of last week’s better than expected run of data, with Cable slipping back towards 1.2100 and Eur/Gbp back up over 0.9150 vs sub-0.9100 at one stage. Note, comments from BoE Governor playing down NIRP and any change in the 2% inflation target have not really impacted, though Gilts and 3 month futures are weaker and the curve is steeper. Elsewhere, the Kiwi is lagging down under after recent downbeat NZ macro releases, like the sub-50 manufacturing PMI, with Nzd/Usd hovering just above 0.6400 and AUD/Nzd firm within a 1.0550-70 range as Aud/Usd holds up better between 0.6800-70 parameters. Back to the cross, MS advocates a long position around current levels for 1.1100 and with a 1.0280 stop based on diverging RBNZ/RBA policy outlooks in wake of the latest Aussie jobs report that revealed a bigger rise in headline payrolls and mostly due to full-time hiring. Similarly, the Sek is struggling to keep pace with its Scandi peer on relative Riksbank vs Norges Bank rate guidance and with the Nok also propped up by firm oil prices. Indeed, Eur/Sek is hovering around 10.7400 whereas Eur/Nok has pulled back from circa 10.0000.
  • EUR/CAD – The single currency is also benefiting from a retracement in Eurozone debt yields amidst more German Government reports about fiscal spending to offset recession, and as the Bundesbank warns that the economy may have shrunk further through the summer. Hence, Eur/Usd is resilient either side of 1.1100 even though final Eurozone CPI was revised a bit lower and ECB’s Muller expresses concern about inflation being too soft, with a decision about more stimulus likely to come next month. As noted above, crude has firmed up again and the Loonie is also drawing some support as Usd/Cad sits closer to the base of a tight 1.3277-57 band.
  • EM – Broad losses vs the Greenback, but the Argentine Peso may be in for additional investor angst given a double dose of credit rating punishment from S&P and Fitch late on Friday. Note, Usd/Ars closed at 54.8340.

In commodities,the energy complex is currently benefitting from the overall risk appetite in the market which sees WTI futures above the 55/bbl mark whilst Brent futures remain north of 59/bbl. Prices may also be deriving some support from reports of a drone attack at Saudi’s 1mln BPD Shaybah oilfield, albeit the fire was extinguished at a gas processing plant and there has been no reported impact on production. Looking at the complex from a technical perspective, WTI sees a golden cross forming with its 200 and 50 DMAs both around 56.15. Elsewhere, gold prices are subdued amid the overall risk appetite with the yellow metal back at the 1500/oz level, session low of USD 1497/oz thus far. Meanwhile, the risk tone has provided supported to copper prices as the red metal reclaims 2.60/lb to the upside.

US Event Calendar

  • Nothing major scheduled

DB’s Craig Nicol concludes the overnight wrap

So, August is clearly proving to be anything but the quiet, sleepy, non-eventful month that most were hoping for. If you were lucky enough to be on holiday last week then all you missed were four daily moves of at least 1% for US equities, the 10y treasury briefly dipping below 1.50% and the 2s10s curve at one stage inverting intraday which started a chorus of recession debates. That was compounded by soft China data and a negative Q2 GDP print for Germany, and one which our economists believe will be followed by another negative reading in Q3 and thus sending the economy into recession (see their update here ).

That’s one way to set the scene for the Fed then and specifically to see if Powell can right the ship with the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium due for the end of the week. The event officially kicks off on Thursday however we won’t hear from Fed Chair Powell until the Friday at 10am EST/3pm BST. The theme for this year’s conference is the sufficiently vague “Challenges for Monetary Policy” however expect the market to be leaning on every word Powell says especially given that there’s been relatively muted Fedspeak in the wake of the July FOMC meeting. Obviously since then we’ve had a ratcheting up in the trade war, slowing global growth and the massive focus on the inversion of the yield curve last week. We’re still pricing in around two and a half more rate cuts this year so the bar for Powell to be dovish is clearly fairly high. All that to look forward to.

We’ll also get the FOMC meeting minutes from the July meeting on Wednesday evening however that could look a little stale now in light of developments since then. That said our economists noted they may provide an important benchmark for Fed officials’ outlooks prior to the escalation of trade tension. For example, if the minutes indicate officials’ existing economic views were largely predicated on a flare-up in trade tensions, as St. Louis Fed President Bullard (dove/voter) mentioned last week, this would be relatively hawkish as it would imply officials think they do not need to do much more easing than they have already foreshadowed. However, if trade tensions returning to a boil a day after the July meeting was actually a surprise, which would be implied by Powell saying they had “returned to a simmer” in his prepared remarks to open the press conference, this would be consistent with our economists’ call that more monetary policy easing than was built into the June dot plot is to be expected.

As for other things to watch, the data calendar is sparse with the exception of the global flash PMIs for August on Thursday. A reminder that the data for Europe in July confirmed a reversal of the improvement seen in June with the composite reading for the Euro Area dropping back to 51.5. The consensus expects a further modest deterioration to 51.2 with the manufacturing reading expected to fall further into contractionary territory at 46.2.

All that to look forward to then. In the meantime the main news flow from the weekend has focused on what appear to be mostly positive comments on trade and the US economy from the US administration. President Trump tweeted yesterday that “we are doing very well with China, and talking”. Prior to that White House National Economic Council Director Kudlow told Fox News that talks with China had been “positive” and that if deputies meetings pan out then the plan is still to have China come to the White House and continue negotiations, without expanding on any time frame. Kudlow also downplayed recession fears while adding to upbeat commentary was Trump’s trade adviser, Navarro, who told ABC that he expected “a strong economy through 2020 and beyond”.

Those comments combined with the strong close on Wall Street on Friday have seen markets in Asia kick off the week on the front foot. The Nikkei (+0.67%), Hang Seng (+1.87%), Shanghai Comp (1.47%) and Kospi (+0.67%) are all up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.50% this morning while the yield on the 10y treasury is up +2.8bps. WTI crude oil prices are up +0.89% after a drone attack on a Saudi Arabian oil field kept geopolitical risks into focus. Meanwhile, the CNY is little changed overnight. It’s worth noting that the PBoC has announced that it will start releasing a new reference rate for bank loans as a further step in a long-awaited reform to interest rates.

Elsewhere, the euro is flat this morning following comments yesterday from Germany’s Finance Minister Olaf Scholz about Germany potentially increasing spending to an equivalent of that during the financial crisis which “cost us 50 billion euros”. Scholz said “we have to be able to muster that and we can muster that,” but, “the biggest problem is uncertainty, including that caused by the Chinese-U.S. trade war.”

Quickly recapping Friday’s action now, where equity markets pared their losses and bonds surrendered a bit of their rally from earlier in the week. The S&P 500 still ended the week -1.02% lower (+1.44% Friday), while the DOW and NASDAQ had similar moves of -1.53% and -0.79% (+1.20% and +1.67% Friday). Semiconductors outperformed, gaining +1.02% (+2.78% Friday), while bank stocks dropped -3.07% as interest rates collapsed (+2.61% Friday). Treasury yields rallied for the third consecutive week, with 10-year yields down -19.1bps (+2.7bps Friday), taking the 2y10y yield curve to 7.9bps after briefly dipping below zero earlier in the week. That small selloff on Friday was driven by new reports that Germany could consider running a fiscal deficit to address a downturn, in contrast to the current policy for a “black zero” of fiscal surpluses. Our economists are sceptical that the story means anything beyond normal automatic stabilizers, but bunds still instinctively sold off +2.7bps, paring their weekly decline to -10.9bps. Peripheral bonds outperformed, with BTPs rallying -41.1bps (+5.9bps Friday).

In other markets, the STOXX 600 somewhat mirrored moves in the S&P 500, retreating -0.52% (+1.24% Friday), though bank stocks performed better in Europe, down only -0.78% (+3.09% Friday). The euro weakened -0.98% (-0.15% Friday) as the dollar broadly rallied +0.72% (0.00% Friday). EMs currencies weakened -0.79% (+0.29% Friday), with the clear weak spot coming from Argentina, which saw the peso weaken -17.49% (+4.28% Friday) after the poor election result for incumbent President Macri. Commodities were fairly tame, with Brent crude advancing +0.29% (+0.81%), while gold rose +1.10% (-0.65% Friday) to touch its highest levels in six years. Credit markets were weaker, as HY spreads widened +21bps and +13bps in the US and Europe (-2.5bps and +3.0bps Friday), respectively.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 59.27 POINTS OR 2.10%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 557.62 POINTS OR 2/17%   /The Nikkei closed UP 144.35 POINTS OR 0.71%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .97%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0484 /Oil UP TO 55.17 dollars per barrel for WTI and 58.81 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0484 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0553 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA/TAIWAN

This is certainly not to the liking of Beijing:  Trump approves the $8 billion dollar sale of F 16’s to Taiwan.  Congress is urged to move quickly on the sale as they are afraid of an invasion by Mainland China

(zerohedge)

Trump Approves $8BN Sale Of F-16 Jets To Taiwan; Congress Urged To “Move Quickly”

Last month China’s military predictably slammed Washington’s recent approval to send $2.2 billion in arms to Taiwan, and now there’s an administration push supported by Republicans in the Senate to “move quickly” on a proposed $8 billion sale of F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan at a moment when the next round of US-China trade negotiations hangs in the balance, as The Washington Post reports:

The Trump administration is moving ahead with for an $8 billion sale of F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan despite strong objections from China, a U.S. official and others familiar with the deal said Thursday.

Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz on Friday urged Congress to move quickly with the sale given China “seeks to extend its authoritarian reach” over the region.

 

Image source: Stars and Stripes

This despite Beijing condemning any and all further weapons sales to Taiwan, which it maintains historic claims over, and taking the further significant step of threatening sanction on any US companies involved in such weapons deals.

The New York Times on Friday also confirmed the proposed F-16 plan, based on State Department statements:

The State Department told Congress Thursday night, right after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had signed a memo approving the sale, officials said. Congress is not expected to object to the move. For weeks, lawmakers from both parties had accused the administration of delaying the sale to avoid jeopardizing trade negotiations or to use it as a bargaining chip.

Texas senator Cruz said it is critical “now more than ever” for Taiwan’s defense capabilities to be significantly increased amid threats from China.

China this summer indicated it stands “ready to go to war” if people “try to split Taiwan from the country” — this after the US approved sales of tanks and Stinger missiles to Taiwan in July. Beijing authorities also said the US and breakaway Taiwan were “playing with fire” due to their growing military ties, which the US by treaty is obligated to honor.

The proposed major addition to Taiwan’s current ageing fleet of F-16s comes after prior Chinese media reports last March said Taipei requested from the US a fleet of 66 Lockheed Martin F-16V fighter jets.

This also corresponds to Taiwan on Thursday unveiling its largest defense spending increase in over a decade, to T$411.3 billion ($13.11 billion.), according to Reuters.

END

HONG KONG
Tourism in Hong Kong has been decimated amid the escalating protests.  Hong Kong’s economy depends on tourism to a high degree
(zerohedge)

“The Impact On Tourism Is Huge:” Hong Kong Hotel Crisis Erupts Amid Escalating Protests

Hong Kong might not be able to avoid a financial crisis this year or next despite possible stimulus packages to shore up its faltering economy amid violent protests across the city. This has led to a rapid decline in tourism, forcing major hotel chains in the city to substantially slash room prices.

Yiu Si-wing, a Hong Kong lawmaker representing the tourism industry, told Bloomberg that hotel revenue is expected to crash 50% this month thanks to escalating protests. She said visits from mainland China account for 80% of arrivals are significantly lower due to social unrest.

 

Yiu said hotel occupancy rates averaged 90% in 1H19, could drop by as much as 33% or more in 2H19. Arrivals from the mainland to Hong Kong, a significant source of consumption for the city, could grind to a halt.

The impact on tourism is huge,” Yiu told Bloomberg. She said at least half of the mainland visitors due in August had canceled their plans. Yiu said top-trending topics on Chinese social media platform Weibo this week included several incidents of where violent protestors attacked government forces.

Some mainland Chinese are shunning Hong Kong because of the risks associated with its airport being closed down for an extended period of time.

Grace Huang, a 20-year-old Wuhan University student, told Bloomberg her layover at Hong Kong International Airport was horrifying earlier this week. “I fear I’m going to be beaten,” she told Bloomberg, as thousands of protestors successfully locked down the airport for several days.

wingless angel@saintgreeedy

Please pay attention to what’s happening in Hong Kong

Embedded video

Jon Williams

@WilliamsJon

Can you hear the people sing? ICYMI protestors at airport singing Les Mis. banned track from streaming services in !

Embedded video

Beijing resident Jasmine Ji, 23, delayed her trip to Hong Kong because she feels protestors would target her for being a Chinese citizen.

“I feel like my personal safety could be severely threatened if they find out I speak Mandarin or am a Chinese citizen,” she said. “I won’t fly to Hong Kong airport until the situation and protests are settled there.”

Chinese officials and state-run media outlets launched an information war against the protestors, describing them as violent extremists.

Hong Kong officials have suggested a recession could be imminent due to social unrest.

Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po on Thursday announced a $2.43 billion stimulus package to shore up the economy during the social and economic turmoil.

Paul warned that a possible recession could be imminent:

“The situation we are in now is like the typhoon No 3 signal has been hoisted and the typhoon is heading towards us,” he said. “We need to get prepared before it gets worse.”

Paul downgraded Hong Kong’s GDP growth forecast for the year to 0 to 1%, from 2 to 3% previously.

He said the city could slide into a technical recession in the current quarter.

InterContinental Hotels Group Plc, a British multinational hospitality company that owns Crowne Plaza and Holiday Inn chains, said the protests in the last several months have contributed to a slowdown in business travel in the region.

Other hospitality companies with exposure to Hong Kong are also feeling the pinch: Sun Hung Kai Properties, owner of Four Seasons Hotel Hong Kong, and New World Development Co., which operates the Grand Hyatt Hong Kong, have seen their stocks enter bear markets in the last month.

Yiu said the downturn in Hong Kong hospitality industry had forced many hotels to slash their room rates by substantial amounts.

A typical room at Conrad Hotel, owned by Hilton Worldwide, is $159 per night this weekend, that’s a 40% discount versus two months ago.

Marriott International Inc. and Shangri-La Asia Ltd. have also cut room rates for their Hong Kong hotels.

Hong Kong could be the first domino to fall that kicks off the next global recession.

END

More and more Hong Kong citizens are taking their money and moving it out of the city and country

(zerohedge)

 

“I Don’t Want My Money Trapped Here” – Hong Kong Hit By Capital Exodus As Protests Drag On

As the protests in Hong Kong enter their 11th week with a massive rally on Sunday, more Hong Kongers are beginning to worry that their money isn’t safe any more, and a great exodus of capital has begun – an exodus that has challenged the Hong Kong dollar’s multi-decade standing peg to the greenback, just as hedge fund investor Kyle Bass bet would happen.

Particularly after this week’s protests at the airport, and the intensifying threats from Beijing, more people are looking for ways to move their money to safer havens, particularly as the Hong Kong market, which was resilient during the early days of the protests, has started to soften.

Sarah Fairhurst, a 52-year-old partner at the Lantau Group, an economic consulting firm, said she transferred 200,000 Hong Kong dollars (about $25,500) into British pounds last week because of concerns about the protests.

“It’s very unsettling here,” said Ms. Fairhurst, who has lived in Hong Kong for 12 years. She said seeing videos of police using tear gas near her office have made her particularly nervous. “I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I know that I don’t want my money trapped here.”

 

There has been a rash of disappointing economic data as tourism and business confidence have suffered. Meanwhile, the movement has raised uncomfortable questions about Hong Kong’s ability to maintain the “one country, two systems” ethos, WSJ reports.

More are beginning to worry about their money.

Though it’s clearly not the consensus view at this point, it seems like Bass is no longer alone in believing that the Hong Kong dollar’s longstanding peg to the greenback – which has persisted since 1986 – could be in danger. 42-year-old Ming Chung runs a business exporting building materials. He said he dropped plans to buy a property in Hong Kong and instead invested HK$4 million ($510,000), into a greenback-based insurance product.

Why? Because he said he no longer trusts the market in Hong Kong.

“It’s a safer investment as opposed to buying property in Hong Kong,” Mr. Chung said. “Because of the protests, I don’t trust the market.” He said he was worried about the Hong Kong dollar’s longstanding link to the US dollar breaking and considered the latter a safer currency

And when it comes to remittances and other personal international payments, there’s no question: Money leaving HK is swiftly outpacing money moving in.

TransferWise, a London-based international bank transfer company that facilitates international bank transfers, mostly for individuals and small businesses, said it has seen a significant pickup in outbound flows over the past ten weeks since the protests started. Before that, the rate of money moving into and out of HK was pretty consistent.

The company said that for every $1 that customers moved into Hong Kong in August, about $2.64 left the city.

Following the violent clashes at Hong Kong International airport this week, protests this weekend were relatively peaceful. Media reports claimed some 1.7 million marched in the streets on Sunday.

Still, with Beijing still holding military exercises right on the other side of the border, we imagine these fears won’t abate any time soon.

end

Trump is set to renew licences allowing USA companies to do business with Huawei.  The previous agreements ends on the 19th of August and Trump is set to renew licenses for 90 days.

(zerohedge)

Trump Renews License Allowing US Companies To Do Business With Huawei

After unexpectedly conceding to China last week, when Trump announced he would delay imposing the bulk of the 10% tariffs on $300BN in mostly consumer-focused goods from September 1 until mid-December, a move that surprised analysts as it was not based on any concessions from Beijing but was merely a panicked response to the tumbling stock market, late on Friday Trump made another unexpected concession when the Commerce Department announced it would extend a reprieve given to Huawei permitting the Chinese firm to buy supplies from U.S. companies so that it can service existing customers.

Back in May, after the US Commerce Dept blacklisted Huawei, it allowed the Chinese telecom giant to purchase some American-made goods in a move aimed at minimizing disruption for its customers, many of which operate networks in rural America.

The “temporary general license” will be extended for Huawei for 90 days, according to Reuters, and will renew an agreement set to lapse on August 19, continuing the Chinese company’s ability to maintain existing telecommunications networks and provide software updates to Huawei handsets.

Earlier this year, the U.S. government blacklisted Huawei blocking it from buying U.S. goods, and alleging the Chinese company is involved in activities contrary to national security or foreign policy interests; at the time the ban was seen as a major escalation in the trade war between the world’s two top economies. As an example cited by Reuters, the blacklisting order cited a criminal case pending against the company in federal court, over allegations Huawei violated U.S. sanctions against Iran.

The United States also says Huawei’s smartphones and network equipment could be used by China to spy on Americans, which allegations the company has vehemently and repeatedly denied.

Still, Reuters sources noted that the situation surrounding the license, which has become a key bargaining chip for the United States in its trade negotiations with China, remains fluid and the decision to continue the Huawei reprieve could change ahead of the Monday deadline.

Another source said that President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to discuss Huawei in a call this weekend.

Despite the last minute reprieve, the world’s largest telecommunications equipment maker is still prohibited from buying American parts and components to manufacture new products without additional special licenses. Many Huawei suppliers have requested the special licenses to sell to the firm. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told reporters late last month he had received more than 50 applications, and that he expected to receive more.

Curiously, some of the biggest critics of the Huawei ban have been US companies: out of $70 billion that Huawei spent buying components in 2018, over $11 billion went to U.S. firms including Qualcomm, Intel and Micron Technology.

end

Wilbur Ross confirms another 90 day delay of the Huawei backlist

(zerohedge)

Stocks Climb As Ross Confirms Another 90-Day Delay On Huawei Blacklist

Late on Friday, the Trump Administration made another unexpected concession to Beijing when the Commerce Department announced it would extend a reprieve given to Huawei permitting the Chinese firm to buy supplies from US companies so that it can continue to service existing customers. Now, on Monday, in an interview with Fox Business, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross affirmed that Huawei will receive another 90 day reprieve to conduct business with some US businesses.

Maria Bartiromo

@MariaBartiromo

Breaking news- Confirmed. ⁦@CommerceGov⁩ Secy wilbur ROSS just confirmed the US is extending deadline while also adding 46 subsidiaries to the “entity list” ⁦@MorningsMaria⁩ ⁦@FoxBusiness⁩ “nov19th new deadline for us CO’s to stop selling to huawei.

View image on Twitter

Stock futures, which had seemingly already shrugged off the carnage of last week, were already pointing toward a higher open, but moved even higher on the news.

 

All of this is happening after Trump announced last week that he would delay imposing the 10% on some $300BN in mostly consumer goods in what appeared to be a panicked response to the market’s vicious selloff, as well as fears that more tariffs could hurt holiday sales at a fragile time for the economy. Instead of going into effect on Sept. 1, those tariffs won’t start now until mid-December. Ross also said the Commerce Dept has added another 40 Huawei subsidiaries to its entities list.

US is giving Huawei another 90 days to conduct some business in the U.S., Commerce Sec. Wilbur Ross tells Fox Business.

Of course, as one Twitter user pointed out, Ross has continued to parrot the Trump Admin line about US consumers not paying tariffs – particularly when the Administration just moved to delay the next round of tariffs so as to avoid a “stagflation”-type scenario.

Yogi Chan@Yogi_Chan

Ross still peddling the line about how US consumers aren’t paying the tariffs…. seems silly saying it after moves to delay some Sept tariffs so not to impact holiday spending

Ross also parroted Trump’s line that there will likely be a recession ‘eventually’, but that the 2s10s inversion – the latest in a string of US yield curve inversions – is hardly reason to panic.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

Project fear returns to England re a leaked report which shows that that the UK will face food, fuel and drug shortages in a no deal Brexit  scenario

 

(zerohedge)

Project Fear Returns: ‘Leaked’ Report Shows UK Faces Food, Fuel, & Drugs Shortages In No-Deal Brexit

Though some small details have leaked over the past year, the British public has never seen the entirety of its government’s plan for coping with a ‘no deal’ Brexit. But with that outcome looking increasingly likely, the Sunday Times has managed to get its hands on what appears to be a nearly complete dossier on ‘Operation Yellowhammer’, the plan to stop Brexit from destroying British society.

By the Times’ description, it sounds as if somebody slipped an old-fashioned dossier under a reporter’s door. The paper is careful to point out that its findings represent “the most likely,” not “the worst case” scenarios post-Brexit.

The draft leaked to the Times, which was reportedly created earlier this month by the Cabinet Office, “offers a rare glimpse into the covert planning being carried out by the government to avert a catastrophic collapse in the nation’s infrastructure.”

The Whitehall sources who leaked the dossier – which was reportedly given a security clearance of “need to know” basis – said it offers the most comprehensive assessment of the UK’s preparations for a no-deal Brexit.

Another source insists: This is not Project Fear — this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios — not the worst case.”

Its conclusions are, perhaps, unsurprising: It states that the UK public and business community remain largely unprepared for no deal and that growing “EU exit fatigue” has hampered contingency planning which has stalled since the UK’s original departure date in March.

Perhaps the most staggering is that the British government expects the return of a hard border in Ireland, which actually isn’t all that surprising, given the opposition to the Irish backstop. But the fact is that they’re finally admitting that this is inevitable, (considering the damage it could cause to relations with Ireland, not to mention the bombings that have already begun) and BoJo isn’t following his predecessor in insisting some magical solution will be found.

Here’s a run down of the main points:

  • The government expects the return of a hard border in Ireland as current plans to avoid widespread checks will prove “unsustainable”; this may spark protests, road blockages and “direct action”
  • Logjams caused by months of border delays could “affect fuel distribution”, potentially disrupting the fuel supply in London and the southeast of England
  • Up to 85% of lorries using the main Channel crossings “may not be ready” for French customs and could face delays of up to two and a half days
  • Significant disruption at ports will last up to three months before the flow of traffic “improves” to 50-70% of the current rate
  • Petrol import tariffs, which the government has set at 0%, will “inadvertently” lead to the closure of two oil refineries, 2,000 job losses, widespread strike action and disruptions to fuel availability
  • Passenger delays at EU airports, St Pancras, Eurotunnel and Dover
  • Medical supplies will “be vulnerable to severe extended delays” as three-quarters of the UK’s medicines enter the country via the main Channel crossings
  • The availability of fresh food will be reduced and prices will rise. This could hit “vulnerable groups”
  • Potential clashes between UK and European Economic Area fishing vessels amid predictions that 282 ships will sail in British waters illegally on Brexit day
  • Protests across the UK, which may “require significant amounts of police resource[s]”
  • Rising costs will hit social care, with “smaller providers impacted within 2-3 months and larger providers 4-6 months after exit”
  • Gibraltar will face delays of more than four hours at the border with Spain “for at least a few months”, which are likely to “adversely impact” its economy

BoJo appears to have locked the country into a course set for ‘no deal’ Brexit, promising to hold a general election only after Brexit day.

Though Johnson is preparing to hold talks with Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel ahead of this week’s G7 summit in Biarritz, No 10 is already playing down any prospect of a Brexit breakthrough. Germany also believes a ‘no deal’ exit is “highly likely.”

One image from the dossier is already familiar: a backlog of lorries.

The absence of a clear picture of the UK’s future relationship with the EU has hindered preparations as it “does not provide a concrete situation for third parties to prepare for”, the document states. Some of the bleakest predictions relate to goods crossing the French border. The file says that on the first day of no deal between “50% and 85% of HGVs travelling via the short channel straits [the main crossings between France and England] may not be ready for French customs, reducing the flow of freight lorries to between 40- 60%” of current levels”.

But this isn’t another example of ‘Project Fear’ – oh no. And it’s definitely not an attempt to undermine Johnson, who is, to his credit, at least trying to fulfill the Brexit mandate.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 IRAN/GIBRALTAR/USA/Saturday
The US unveils a seizure warrant for Iran’s Grace one tanker
(zerohedge)

US Unveils Seizure Warrant For Iran’s Grace 1 Tanker

Apparently the month long saga of the Grace-1 is not at all over, and may now seriously escalate even after it was set free from custody. Just as the Iranian supertanker was released from custody off Gibraltar and is preparing to make its way into the Mediterranean, a seizure warrant filed by the US Department of Justice was unsealed in a US district court late Friday.

Documents allege “a scheme to unlawfully access the U.S. financial system to support illicit shipments to Syria from Iran by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,” the DoJ said in a statement.

The seizure warrant and forfeiture complaint alleges the now Iranian-flagged tanker along with its over two million barrels of oil aboard it and $995,000 “are subject to forfeiture,” citing terrorism forfeiture statutes, and bank fraud and money laundering.

 

The Grace-1, now renamed by Iran the Adrian Darya. Image source: Reuters 

“The scheme involves multiple parties affiliated with the IRGC and furthered by the deceptive voyages of the Grace 1,” US Attorney for the District of Columbia Jessie Liu said in a press release. “A network of front companies allegedly laundered millions of dollars in support of such shipments.”

The warrant is addressed to “the United States Marshal’s Service and/or any other duly authorized law enforcement officer.”

According to Reuters, the Grace 1 – now renamed the Adrian Darya after Iran began flying its flag over the previously Panamanian-flagged tanker – may not have made it far though it was filmed moving on Friday. “The tanker shifted its position on Friday, but its anchor was still down off Gibraltar and it was unclear if it was ready to set sail soon,” the report said.

Given that no doubt the US warrant means leaders in Tehran will be livid, and now with the possibility that American military assets could potentially make a move to actually board the vessel or perhaps even block its as yet unknown route, this puts the fate of the UK-flagged Stena Impero — still under IRGC control — in jeopardy.

Secretary Pompeo

@SecPompeo

A message to all mariners – if you crew an IRGC or other FTO-affiliated ship, you jeopardize future entry to the U.S. https://go.usa.gov/xVCce

Iranian Vessel Grace I – United States Department of State

The United States assesses that the M/T Grace I was assisting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) by transporting oil from Iran to Syria. This could result in serious consequences for any…

state.gov

It’s expected that Iran will release the detained Stena Impero in a tit-for-tat gesture, as Tehran had initially expressed a desire for, possibly at some point this weekend. The US warrant will definitely delay this and quash any level of good faith signalling between Iran and the UK.

What’s more is it looks like the US is ready to pursue sanctions busting consequences to the max, down to ship owners and crew: “A message to all mariners – if you crew an IRGC or other FTO-affiliated ship, you jeopardize future entry to the U.S.,” Secretary Mike Pompeo said in a tweet Friday.

end

end\

Gibraltar/Saturday

Gibraltar slams the door on that USA warrant and they are now set to release the tanker

(zerohedge)

Gibraltar Slams Door On US Warrant Demanding Iranian Tanker Hand Over

After a seizure warrant filed by the US Department of Justice was unsealed in a US district court late Friday authorizing US law enforcement to detain the supertanker Grace 1, since renamed the Adrian Darya, and its 2 million barrels of Iranian oil on board, Washington renewed its request to Gibraltar authorities demanding it impede the tanker’s release and hand it over to the US.

Gibraltar has now rejected the formal US request for the second time in under a week, just as the ship is set to sail into the Mediterranean from the place of its over month-long captivity Sunday evening.

A media statement by Gibraltar, which is a British overseas territory, indicated the US request was not in accord with EU law, and that this has led “to the differences in the sanctions regimes applicable to Iran in the EU and the US.”

 

Supertanker Grace 1, since renamed the Adrian Darya, now flying the Iranian flag. Image source: Reuters

“The EU sanctions regime against Iran – which is applicable in Gibraltar – is much narrower than that applicable in the US,” the statement elaborated.

The US warrant alleged “a scheme to unlawfully access the U.S. financial system to support illicit shipments to Syria from Iran by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,” according to a DoJ statement.

The seizure warrant and forfeiture complaint alleges the now Iranian-flagged tanker along with its over two million barrels of oil aboard it and $995,000 “are subject to forfeiture,” citing terrorism forfeiture statutes, and bank fraud and money laundering.

But now the real million dollar question remains: will Tehran defiantly send the Adrian Darya on ahead to Syria?

Though Iranian officials have from the beginning claimed that Syria was not the tanker’s ultimate destination, it’s a move that’s not completely out of the question, given Iran’s growing boldness over the summer in capturing tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, including the still IRGC-detained British-flagged Stena Impero.

Given Tehran has been waging its own, relatively successful “counter-pressure” campaign in response to the White House’s own “maximum pressure” (also given Assad and Russia have the complete upper-hand in Syria), Iran could very well play this provocative card.

end

Sunday/Afghanistan/USA

Trump set to review controversial USA Taliban peace deal.  Some Neocons are calling it a betrayal. The USA should remove itself from this quagmire

(zerohedge)

Trump Reviews Controversial US-Taliban Peace Deal Which Critics Call A “Betrayal”

Critics are calling a Trump administration plan for a rapid US force draw down in Afghanistan which involves striking a peace deal with the Taliban a “betrayal”.

But administration officials have countered that this is the cost of bringing the some 14,000 US troops in Afghanistan home. Trump “has been pretty clear that he wants to bring the troops home” according to senior officials privy to ongoing negotiations.

The chief controversy behind the US-Taliban peace talks is that any deal will likely rely on the Taliban holding to counterterrorism guarantees, or that it won’t attack US coalition forces; however, there’s reportedly little in the impending deal which holds the Taliban to guarantees it won’t attack Afghan civilians or the national army.

 

Via Reuters

According to CNN:

One source explained that the agreement is seen as paving the way for the US to leave the country without a high number of US casualties in the coming months.

President Trump said he had a “very good meeting in Afghanistan” in a tweet Friday, just after meeting with top national security advisers over the impending peace plan which seeks to end America’s longest running war, now approaching two decades.

“Discussions centered around our ongoing negotiations and eventual peace and reconciliation agreement with the Taliban and the government of Afghanistan,” a White House press spokesman said of the meeting. “The meeting went very well, and negotiations are proceeding.”

“In continued close cooperation with the government of Afghanistan, we remain committed to achieving a comprehensive peace agreement, including a reduction in violence and a cease-fire, ensuring that Afghan soil is never again used to threaten the United States or her allies, and bringing Afghans together to work towards peace,” the statement said.

CNN summarizes of the deal that it’s “expected to formalize a significant withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan — from about 15,000 troops to 8,000 or 9,000 troops — and enshrine official commitments by the Taliban to counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan, according to the multiple sources familiar with the plan.”

But there’s fear that the Taliban is simply looking to remove the US military from the equation, and that once the US departs, the Taliban will have free reign to attack a greatly weakened Afghan national army.

Spearheading the dialogue has been White House special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, who has been meeting with Taliban negotiators in Qatar for months, with a desire to strike a final deal by September 1.

END

Iran/Iran/UAE

USA joins secret talks between Israel and the UAE on thwarting Iran

(courtesy Ditz/Antiwar.com)

US Joins Secret Talks Between Israel & UAE Targeting Iran

Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

Secret talks have been ongoing between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, focused on sharing intelligence against Iran and possibly military cooperation. The talks have progressed to the point that the US is now joining the talks too.

Israel and the UAE have some security ties, but don’t have public relations. That they’re discussing Iran reflects Israel’s long-standing hostility toward Iran, and the UAE’s close proximity to Iran.

 

Iranian Revolutionary Guards drive speedboats at the port of Bandar Abbas. Image source: AFP

While some are presenting the US joining of the talks as proof they are making progress, a lot isn’t understood about what’s going on, and particularly unclear is what the UAE is trying to work out.

The UAE seems to be trying to balance multiple interests, as they’ve tried to talk to Iran about maritime security in recent days, and seem not to be looking to pick fights with them. That’s in stark contrast to Israel, for whom picking fights with Iran is the centerpiece of decades of foreign policy.

It’s clear that the UAE has an interest in keeping the US happy, and that probably requires keeping Israel at lease sort of placated in this regard. So while they aren’t trying to start anything against Iran they’re trying to walk the tightrope of balancing both sides to keep everyone satisfied.

END
Iran/Greece/USA
Seems our famous released Iranian tanker is heading to Greece. Iran is mum on its final destination. iran warns the USA not to interfre with its passage
(zerohedge)

Iran Warns US: Don’t Interfere With Tanker’s Passage, Mulls Naval Escort

With the Grace 1 now released after two failed attempts of Washington to bring the Iranian tanker under US custody, since renamed the Adrian Darya and flying the Iranian flag, Tehran officials arestill refusing to confirm its ultimate destination where it will offload its 2.1 million barrels of oil.

On Monday Iran’s foreign ministry issued new warnings to the United States not to mount any new attempt to seize the tanker. “If this is done or even stated, it is a threat to free shipping,” a spokesman said. “Through its official channels, and especially the Swiss embassy, Iran has warned U.S. officials not to make the mistake of doing so, as they face bad consequences.”

GBC News

@GBCNewsroom

….and there she goes! After 46 days in Gibraltar Waters sparking an international incident with Iran, the Adrian Darya, formerly the Grace 1, is leaving…

Embedded video

Per a breaking Bloomberg report, Iran issued a formal warning to the US via Switzerland to not interfere with the ship’s passage through international waters.

Furthermore, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said at a press conference in Helsinki while attending diplomatic meetings in Finland that Iran cannot be “very transparent” about the tanker’s destination due to US sanctions.

He said the US is trying “bully others from purchasing our oil” but expressed hope the Gibraltar court’s release of the tanker would serve to deescalate tensions, according to Bloomberg.

The Adrian Darya’s shipping tracking data shows it intends to head to Kalamata, Greece, with an arrival date of Aug. 25, according to reports, where it’s likely to change crew and get fresh supplies.

A senior Greek merchant marine ministry official was quoted in the WSJ as saying, “We’ve been informed of the ship’s possible call in Kalamata, but it’s not there yet and we don’t know whether or when it will arrive. There have been no instructions by the foreign ministry or any other government authority to hold the tanker or take any other action so far.”

 

Supertanker Grace 1, since renamed the Adrian Darya, now flying the Iranian flag. Image source: Reuters

Iranian officials over the weekend had broached the idea of sending a naval escort, something believed unlikely to happen. A top naval commander was cited in semi-official Mehr news agency as saying, “We have no intention of sending a flotilla to Gibraltar, but we are ready to do so to escort the Grace 1 back to Iran’s territorial waters.”

Concerning its ultimate destination and crude offload point, we previously noted that though Iranian officials have from the beginning claimed that Syria was not the tanker’s ultimate destination, it’s a move that’s not completely out of the question, given Iran’s growing boldness over the summer in capturing tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, including the still IRGC-detained British-flagged Stena Impero.

end
SYRIA/TURKEY
It looks like we may have a full scale war between Syria and Turkey as Turkish forces invade Syria tryoing to aid the rebels in Idlib province.
(zerohedge)

Turkey-Syria War On The Horizon: Airstrikes Target Invading Turkish Army Convoy

Turkey and Syria could be headed for war as their armies increasingly clash on front lines in southern Idlib, also amid a heavy aerial bombardment by Syrian and Russian jets of al-Qaeda held Khan Sheikhoun.

On Monday a Turkish convoy came under attack by Syrian airstrikes while traversing a highway headed toward Khan Sheikhoun. Damascus has accused Turkey of seeking to aid terrorists in the besieged town, which had been site of prior chemical attack claims issued by anti-Assad fighters, and fired “warning shots” on the approaching armored convoy, killing and injuring some among the pro-Turkish force.

 

Turkish convoy in southern Idlib on Monday, via the AFP

An AFP correspondent observed around 50 Turkish armed vehicles, including at least five tanks, traveling through Idlib which the Syrian government has condemned as an illegal breach of its sovereign borders.

The convoy is said to be laden with ammunition resupplies for local “rebels” battling the Syrian Army in southern Idlib province. Ankara’s position has been to claim massive Syrian-Russian airstrikes are a violation of prior agreements between Russia, Turkey, and Syria.

At least one fighter from a Turkish-backed faction was reported killed in the airstrikes on the convoy, which halted its movement south, along with many injured. Some reports said there were multiple among the dead.

Turkey’s defense ministry “strongly” condemned the incident, with statements out of Damascus saying Turkey is seeking to resupply terrorist groups on Syrian soil.

Babak Taghvaee@BabakTaghvaee

Another video showing the military convoy of occupiers being bombed by Su-22M4s of Arab Air Force near , outskirt. Multiple Turkish soldiers are reported to be killed & some of their BMC Kirpi MRAPs and M-60 tanks are damaged or destroyed.

Embedded video

“Despite repeated warnings we made to the authorities of the Russian Federation, the military operations by the regime forces continue in Idlib region in violation of the existing memorandums and agreements with the Russian Federation,” Turkey’s defense ministry said in a statement.

Syrian state news agency SANA, citing a Foreign Ministry source, responded that Turkey’s invading force would not impede “the determination of the Syrian Arab Army to keep hunting the remnants of terrorists.”

Meanwhile, it must be remembered that Khan Sheikhoun was site of a previously claimed chemical attack incident in April 2017, which the White House used as a pretext for bombing Syria, followed by a more devastating attack on Damascus the year following.

Though Syria has largely fallen out of mainstream media headlines, events rapidly unfolding in Idlib will soon likely take center stage, especially should another claimed chemical attack incident play out, and given it is entirely in the besieged insurgents’ interest for some kind of “mass casualty” event involving sarin or another chemical to gain the immediate attention of the West.

END

6.Global Issues

Another good sign of global contraction:  the Cass Freight index declines for the 8th straight month.  It is also a good indicator for negative GDP in the next two quarters

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Cass Freight Index Contracts 8th Month, Predicts Negative GDP By Q3/Q4

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Based on global shipping indexes, Cass expects a US GDP contraction in the third or fourth quarter.

The Cass Freight Index® Report shows trucking shipments as negative for the 8th month.

Key Points

  • When the December 2018 Cass Shipments Index was negative for the first time in 24 months, we dismissed the decline as reflective of a tough comparison. In January and February 2019, we again made rationalizations. When March was also negative (-1.0%), we warned that we were preparing to “change tack” in our outlook; when April was down (-3.2%), we said, “we see material and growing downside risk to the economic outlook.”
  • With the -5.9% drop in July, following the -5.3% drop in June, and the -6.0% drop in May, we repeat our message from last two months: the shipments index has gone from “warning of a potential slowdown” to “signaling an economic contraction.”
  • We acknowledge that: all of these negative percentages are against extremely tough comparisons; and the Cass Shipments Index has gone negative before without being followed by a negative GDP. However, weakness in demand is now being seen across many modes of transportation, both domestically and internationally.
  • Although the initial Q2 ’19 GDP was positive, it was not as positive upon dissection, and we see a growing risk that GDP will go negative by year’s end.
  • The weakness in spot market pricing for many transportation services, especially trucking, is consistent with the negative Cass Shipments Index and, along with airfreight and railroad volume data, strengthens our concerns about the economy and the risk of ongoing trade policy disputes. Weakness in commodity prices, and the decline in interest rates, have joined the chorus of signals calling for an economic contraction.

European Airfreight vs EuroZone PMI

European airfreight volumes have been negative since March 2018, but only by small single-digit margins (-1% to -3%), until November 2018. Unfortunately, since then, volumes have started to further deteriorate. Our European Airfreight Index was down a concerning -7.2% in April, only down -2.6% in May, before dropping -7.5% in June. Our preliminary July index is only down -3.4%, and consistent with the deteriorating Eurozone PMI. While the -6.9% July overall drop in London airfreight volume suggests that economic headwinds from Brexit remain, particularly since the largest rates of decline (down -11% to -25%) are being experienced in the lanes between (to and from) London and other EU airports. Although the European data is by itself distressing, it’s the Asian data that has become the most alarming.

Asia Pacific Airfreight

Asian airfreight volumes were essentially flat from June to October 2018, but have since deteriorated at an accelerating pace (November -3.5%, December -6.1%, January –5.4%, February -13.2%, March -3.6%, -10.2% in April, -8.5% in May, -8.6% in June, and preliminary July -7.9%).

Shanghai Airfreight

The volumes of the three largest airports (Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Incheon)

Shanghai Airfreight Inbound vs Outbound Tonnage

The inbound volumes for Shanghai have plummeted. This concerns us since it is the inbound shipment of high value/low density parts and pieces that are assembled into the high-value tech devices that are shipped to the rest of the world.

Hence, in markets such as Shanghai, the inbound volumes predict the outbound volumes and the strength of the high-tech manufacturing economy.

With the current level of civil unrest, leading to Hong Kong airport flight delays and cancellations, we can’t imagine that August data will be anything but worse.

Cass Shipments Index vs GDP

At first glance, the GDP for the 1st and 2nd quarter seems very inconsistent with overall freight volumes. Using the Cass Shipments Index as a predictive proxy, we did not expect the BEA to report 3.2% as its initial estimate or 3.1% as its revision in Q1 or 2.1% in Q2. As we have already explained, dissecting the contributing factors explains much of the disparity, and should point out that freight flows are a leading indicator. It often takes two to three quarters for the trends in freight to become reported economic statistics.

Although we also subdivide the economy via multiple other data feeds that represent smaller segments of freight flows, the Cass Freight Shipments and Expenditures Indexes are two of the strongest proxies for what is happening in the overall U.S. freight markets, and as a result they are strong predictive indicators for the U.S. economy.

Negative GDP in 2019

Based on all three months of data for Q2, the Cass Shipments Index is signaling that GDP may be negative, or at least come close to being negative, in Q3. If it does not, since reported GDP often lags the economic activity represented by freight flows, continued weakness in the Cass Shipments Index at the current magnitude should result in a negative Q4 GDP.

Industrial Production Supports Cass View

The Cass report is consistent with the today’s Industrial Production report and the Global Manufacturing recession already underway.

  1. Tale of Two Economies: Industrial Production vs Retail Spending
  2. Global Manufacturing Recession Started and Trump’s China tariffs make matters much worse.
  3. Manufacturing Recessions vs Real Recessions: How Much Lead Time Do You Expect?

Cass suggests 1-2 quarters of lead time. Historically, lead time is zero on a quarterly manufacturing basis. See point 3 above.

end
Aussie Central Bank
Aussie Reserve Bank basically admits it is out of ammunition.
(zerohedge)

Aussie Reserve Bank, Considering “Extreme Measures”, Admits “We’re Almost Out Of Ammo”

At least one reserve bank globally is starting to ponder the question that many central banks across the world will soon inevitably be asking: what happens if we cut to zero and the economy continues to falter?

This has led Australia to start considering QE, following in the footsteps of a world full of central bankers all offering each other as much confirmation bias necessary to continue to walk down the path of eventual economic destruction.

In Australia, the reserve bank has cut to 1% and “nobody expects them to stop cutting,” according to News.com.au. The bank released this chart days ago, showing that market is expecting further cuts.

The average of all expectations is for the market to fall to 0.37% by September 2020. That exact outcome is described as “unlikely”, but the RBA could have rates at 0.25% or 0.5% by then. That would only leave room for one or two more cuts before rates are at zero.

Then what? Destroy your currency and print your way out of your problems.

Apparently convinced that economies only exist as permanent booms now, the RBA said last week that it would begin a program similar to QE in the United States, wherein the central bank would buy financial assets in exchange for cash. The RBA is considering buying Australian government bonds.

“We could take action to lower the risk-free rates further out along the term spectrum,” said the RBA Governor.

Justifying this nonsense, the article then gives the quintessential example of how QE bond buying works in practice:

Bonds are how the government borrows. Here’s how it works in simplified terms:

The government offers to sell a piece of paper that says, “Australia will pay you back a million dollars in 10 years” (a 10-year bond).

Someone buys that for, let’s say, $900,000.

In this way the government just borrowed $900,000 and the $100,000 difference, spread over 10 years, is the return on investment for the buyer. The return on investment in bonds is known as the yield. It is usually expressed as a percentage, and it’s really important.

Yields change constantly in the secondary market as people trade the bonds they buy at varying prices.

When the RBA buys Australian Government bonds from the people who hold them, it is expected to have an effect on bond yields. The reason? Bidding to buy bonds will push up their price. The price of a bond determines the return on it, aka the yield.

The higher the price, the lower the yield. For example, imagine if someone bought that 10-year bond mentioned earlier for $1 million, it would have a yield of 0 per cent.

The RBA has said that by buying bonds, it is seeking a “spillover” effect, where it hopes to reduce bond yields across the market, which would in turn encourage economic activity. 

The RBA Governor said:

“Europe’s the best example… They’ve also had success in lowering government bond yields, which is a risk-free rate, and therefore they’ve had success in lowering interest rates across the economy for private borrowers as well.”

But even the author of the article, economist Jason Murphy, couldn’t do the mental gymnastics necessary to pretend that QE makes sense at this point.

“What’s crazy about all this is we are talking about an extraordinary kind of monetary policy when the economy is not extraordinarily bad,” the article states.

“Australia is talking about bringing it in now. There’s something disconcerting about that,” it concludes.

We couldn’t agree more.

end
A dress rehearsal as to what will happen here?  A third of all Ghanian banks are shuttered and this is creating a bank run on the red. Ghana is the 7th largest producer of gold in the world at 103 tonnes per year.
(zerohedge)

“Horror” In Ghana As A Third Of Banks Shutter, Sparking Unprecedented Bank Run

It’s bad enough that drought-like conditions and rapid population growth have stoked a shortage of water and other vital resources in Ghana, a country that boasts one of the fastest growing economies on Earth (if it is still poor). But a banking crisis is just now roiling the country’s economy, and has wiped out $1.6 billion.

One couple, two of some 70,000 investors who were impacted by the shuttering of some 23 savings and loan companies – about one-third of banks in the country – and a run on the country’s asset managers, described to Bloomberg how they deposited money in a short-term investment product, intended to help save money for the wife to finish her economic Phd., only to discover they may never get the money.

The couple are among at least 70,000 investors who have become collateral damage from a cleanup of Ghana’s banking industry. The crackdown, which reduced the number of lenders by a third and saw the closure of 23 savings and loans companies, also triggered a run on fund managers, who couldn’t sell their holdings fast enough to meet demand.

That’s tying up as much as 9 billion cedis ($1.6 billion) of investments, more than a third of the 25 billion cedis in assets that private fund managers oversee for retail and institutional investors.

“My wife was very disturbed,” the 36-year-old said by phone from Kumasi in Ghana’s Ashanti Region. They’re not getting answers and are now worried they’ll never get back the 12,000 cedis they expected back from their investment. “If I knew this would happen, I wouldn’t have gone there.”

The run left investment companies holding too any illiquid assets – unlisted bonds, private debt placements etc. – and now securities regulators in Ghana are trying to figure out who broke what securities laws, and to what degree. Even the SEC has gotten involved.

But many Ghanians are cynical.

They’re in for a long wait. The nation’s markets regulator is looking into whether 21 fund managers violated rules by placing their clients’ money into illiquid assets. The Securities and Exchange Commission has stepped up the pressure, blocking these money managers from accepting new investments for fear they may use the funds to pay out existing investors.

“The harm has already been done,” Lord Mensah, a senior finance lecturer at the University of Ghana, said by phone. “Assets need to be protected.”

The SEC hasn’t yet released the list of fund managers who are under investigation, but it’s believed that nearly two dozen will be named.

As much as 5 billion cedis is tied up in unlisted bonds, direct private-equity stakes and other deals with small- and medium-sized businesses, according to the SEC. Another 4 billion cedis is stuck in fixed-term investments with banks rescued during the clean up, savings and loans companies, and microlenders.

The SEC hasn’t yet released a list of all the fund managers it is investigating. An 11.2 billion-cedis bailout for lenders that were closed down and another package of about 925 million cedis for microcredit companies whose licenses were revoked is helping to release some of the funds locked up in those segments. The number of fund managers dropped to 140 in 2018 from 155 a year earlier as some voluntarily shut down and the licenses of others were revoked, according to the SEC.

The fallout for thousands of Ghanians will be financial crisis-level bad.

“It’s cutting across all the finance houses and when it happens like that the government needs to step in to build confidence again,” Mensah said. “There’s nothing we can do apart from making sure that we create that necessary environment to regain investors’ confidence again.”

That’s of little comfort to the Boahens, who were going to use the money to cover the costs of field-data collection for Bless’s thesis with the University of Ghana. After being promised a return of 26% a year on the investment, Isaac, an accountant, had to borrow money against his provident fund.

While he got the loan at a reduced rate of 10% a year, Boahen didn’t want to go the route of raising debt, he said. “It’s costing me more now.”

It’s too bad more Ghanians didn’t allocate more of their assets to bitcoin.

7. OIL ISSUES

Interesting:  the USA sanctions against Iran is backfiring:  it is leading to a strong gain in Russian oil exports

(courtesy Iran Slav/OilPrice.com)

end

US Sanctions Backfire, Lead To Boost In Russian Oil Exports

Authored by Irina Slav via Oilprice.com,

U.S. sanctions against Venezuela and Iran have had an unplanned side effect: they have increased exports of heavy, sour crude from Russia, Bloomberg reports, adding that calculations have shown Russian oil companies raked in an additional US$905 million at least from these sales between November and July.

The Urals blend is the big winner of the U.S. sanctions, according to Bloomberg’s calculations. Venezuela is one of the main global suppliers of heavy crude, but U.S. sanctions have shrunk its exports significantly. Iran also produces heavy, which has now become less readily available to foreign buyers, freeing up space for Urals. Finally, OPEC members prioritized cutting their heavy crude production as part of their December 2018 agreement and that added to the strain on heavy crude supply.

Like heavy crude in general, Urals normally trades at a discount to Brent. However, like other heavy blends, the Russian one has narrowed the gap since November, when U.S. sanctions against Iran snapped back, despite the waivers granted to eight importing countries. Eventually, it swung to a premium, especially in the Mediterranean, where a lot of Iranian oil used to go.

Right now, Urals is trading at a discount of more than $2 per barrel to Brent crude but at a premium to West Texas Intermediate. It has swung to a premium to Brent several times this year. Meanwhile, according to information from oil data analytics firm OilX, Russia’s overall production is also on the rise, after a temporary decline. As of August, this climbed back above 11.3 million bpd, after dropping below 11.2 million bpd in July.

U.S. sanctions are definitely changing production and price patterns in heavy crude and so is U.S. production.

Italy’s Eni said in its latest World Oil Review report recently that last year that the portion of heavier sour crude grades had fallen below 40 percent of the total for the first time ever. At the same time, thanks to the U.S. shale revolution, the share of light, sweet crude increased to more than 20 percent. This, too, has had an effect on the price difference between lighter and heavier crudes.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1103 UP .0014 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.58 UP 0.269 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2117   DOWN   0.0025  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3258 UP .0004 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 14 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 59.27 POINTS OR 2.10% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 557.62 POINTS OR 2.17%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,97%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP  557.62 POINTS OR 2.17%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 59.27 POINTS OR 2.10%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 97% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 144.35  POINTS OR 0.71%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1499.65

silver:$16.90-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.61% !!! UP 5 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.11 UP 5  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 98.19 UP 5 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.16% UP 5 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.22%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.13%//UP 5 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,44 UP 5 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 132 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.65% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.09% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1095  UP     .0006 or 6 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.49 UP .177 OR YEN DOWN 18  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2141 DOWN .002 POUND DOWN 2  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 50 basis points to 1.3310

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0507    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0643  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.6726 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.22%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 1.59 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.07 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.23 UP 8  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 92.63  0.56%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 152.63 POINTS OR .UP 1.33%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 70.77 POINTS 1.34%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 62.90 POINTS or 0.73%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 392.80 POINTS OR 1.93%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 55.45 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 59.18 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    66.99  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.48 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 48 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.65 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  56/34//

 

 

BRENT :  59.74

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.60  plus 5 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.08  plus 5 basis pts..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1078 ( DOWN 11   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.61 UP .300 (YEN DOWN 30 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.38 UP 24 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2134 DOWN 9  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.6661

 

 

the Russian rouble 66/88   DOWN 0.37 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 37 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3332 UP 21 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0507  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0744 (OFFSHORE)

 

 

The Dow closed UP 249.78 POINTS OR 0.96%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 106.82 POINTS OR 1.35%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  16.52 CLOSED DOWN 1.95

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.135%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Global Easing Hopes Spark Biggest Stock Short-Squeeze In 7 Months

A Huawei reprieve (again) and stimulus hopes from China (rate reform) and Germany (nothing official) prompted the machines to squeeze stocks back to run stops above last week’s pluinge. What now?

Chinese stocks were panic-bid at the open…

Source: Bloomberg

Hopes of German fiscal recklessness (again) lifted European stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

And German bond yields…

Source: Bloomberg

US equity markets extended Friday’s surge, erasing last week’s carnage but stalled once they had run the stops…Small Caps, S&P, and Nasdaq are back unch from the plunge last week, Trannies and Dow Industrials are still lower…

NOTE – weakness at close, unable to hold the gain.

A weekend of jawboning from Kudlow and Navarro and overnight headlines (but no actual, real news) suggesting Germany may go fiscally irresponsible (and China rate reform will save the world), sparked the biggest two-day short-squeeze in US stocks since the start of the year.

Source: Bloomberg

NOTE – The early June spike was all about Bullard, Powell, and an avalanche of fed speakers (as was the End-Dec and early Jan spikes)

Friday and today’s short-squeezer has perfectly erased the plunge from last week…

Source: Bloomberg

FANG Stocks were unable to recover all the losses…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Google celebrates its 15th anniversary of IPO…

Source: Bloomberg

AAPL ramped higher again (maybe Trump’s dinner with Tim Cook prompted more irrational buybacks)?

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

VIX slipped lower today, and the VIX term structure shifted out of inversion…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks and bonds are not in agreement that everything is awesome…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Treasury yields rose on the day, spiking on the German headlines overnight with the short-end underperforming

 

Source: Bloomberg

2s10s started top flatten again…

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

Before we leave bondland, it’s worth noting that the odds of a 50bps cut in September have plunged as stocks bounced…

Source: Bloomberg

 

The dollar rallied for the 5th straight day, hitting YTD highs, thanks in some part to relatively hawkish comments from Fed’s Rosengren…

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan slid notably on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos are higher since Friday’s close…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin is back above $10k…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Oil soared on the day (growth stimulus hopes), as PMs slipped (no need for safe havens as everything is awesome…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Spot Gold fell back below $1500 intraday…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI ramped back in the same way as stocks – erasing last week’s plunge…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, somewhat quietly, the U.S. government’s $45 billion auction of three-month bills on Monday attracted the weakest demand since December 2008, with just 2.51 bids submitted for every security on offer.

 

Source: Bloomberg

And fun-durr-mentals are driving stocks…not!

 

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

It’s Official: Trump Makes First Demand For Fed To Restart QE, Urges 100bps Rate Cut

One week ago, when we discussed that as a result of the accelerated rebuild of cash by the US Treasury, first Bank of America, then JPMorgan suggested that the Fed may be forced to restart QE soon as a result of the upcoming sharp drop in liquidity, we said that “apparently this is something that the Fed, which until recently was engaging in additional liquidity draining via QT, was unaware about, and since a return of QE – something that Trump has yet to demand – would cause all sorts of political problems and demand lengthy congressional explanations.”

Fast forward to today, when what we expected would happen, happened as Trump made his first official demand forsome quantitative easing” (even if Congress may choose to eventually stay out of this as both political parties are now desperate for the Fed to resume monetizing the US deficit on the road to helicopter money, i.e. MMT).

To wit, despite the “strongest economy in the world,” it appears President Trump is not satisfied.

Our Economy is very strong, despite the horrendous lack of vision by Jay Powell and the Fed,but the Democrats are trying to “will” the Economy to be bad for purposes of the 2020 Election.  Very Selfish! Our dollar is so strong that it is sadly hurting other parts of the world…”

And for the first time, Trump also called for more QE…

The Fed Rate, over a fairly short period of time, should be reduced by at least 100 basis points, with perhaps some quantitative easing as well. If that happened, our Economy would be even better, and the World Economy would be greatly and quickly enhanced-good for everyone!”

The result – a sharp drop in the 10Y yields…

… while the stock market hit new intraday highs…

end

… and the 2nd biggest short-squeeze of the year did not hurt either:

Certainly piling more pressure on Powell to offer up any number of momentum igniting strawmen at this week’s Jackson Hole speech.

Which is amusing considering that not that long ago, the same Trump warned that the Fed’s reckless policies need to be stopped or “we will face record inflation”…

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

If you will recall on Friday we reported on 4 major operations which could crash the entire global markets in one fall swoop.  The 4 entities are:

1.HSBC

2 Deutsche bank

3. Boeing

4. We Work

The financial times discusses by the 4th is a huge problem  If they fail to pay rent, the game is over as the globe implodes

(London’s Financial Times)

WeWork landlords ‘exposed to $40bn’ in rent commitments

Property owners have limited recourse if office space provider fails to pay rent

Hundreds of landlords are exposed to WeWork via $47.2bn of rental commitments, with little recourse if the office space company fails to pay.

More than 220 landlords have leased space in the US to WeWork and more than 50 in the UK, according to CoStar, a real estate data firm, as the company expanded rapidly to become the largest office tenant in Manhattan and central London.

The CoStar data show that TIAA-CREF, Boston Properties, Beacon Capital Partners and Moinian Group are among the biggest landlords in the US to WeWork, which published its prospectus last week ahead of a highly anticipated initial public offering.

WeWork sublets the space to businesses from start-ups to large corporations on a short-term basis. The mismatch in rental periods is seen by many in the industry as a potential weakness in its model during a recession.

“There are so many WeWork leases in town, and I think there are a lot of landlords who are very cautious, not about the quality of service but about the financial model. I’m one of them,” said one large London-based landlord who has opted against direct exposure.

If WeWork does hit trouble, there are limits to what landlords can do to enforce rental commitments. The company — like others in the shared office sector — creates special purpose vehicles for its leases, meaning landlords do not have direct recourse to the parent company if it fails to pay rent.

In the past, companies in the sector have changed the terms of their leases when downturns hit. Regus, now IWG, renegotiated leases in 2002 when the end of the tech boom cut into its customer base. More recently, an IWG subsidiary which leased a site near Heathrow airport applied for voluntary liquidation.

To counter such concerns, WeWork has guaranteed a portion of its rental payments — though a small fraction of the overall obligation. About $4.5bn of rent payments are backed by corporate guarantees and $1.1bn by bank guarantees, according to the group’s pre-IPO filing. It has paid more than $268.3m in cash deposits to landlords and used another $183.9m of surety bonds, a form of insurance.

That leaves more than $40bn of rent payments, stretched over a typical 15-year lease length, with no such backing, though the group maintains in its filing: “Our business, reputation, financial condition and results of operations depend on our subsidiaries’ ongoing compliance with their leases.”

WeWork’s $47.2bn of lease obligations dwarf the £6.6bn (or $8bn) held by its largest rival, IWG; its leases last a typical 15 years, against IWG’s 10 years.

Meanwhile, landlords have paid cash to WeWork in the form of “tenant improvement allowances”, upfront payments that enable the group to transform buildings into its signature style.

WeWork collected almost $455m of these in the first six months of 2019. Analysts at Fitch said: “We believe WeWork assumes an even greater proportion of gross capital expenditure being funded by landlords [in the future].” *

As WeWork tends to lease offices from large landlords, it makes up only a small percentage of any individual landlord’s portfolio.

But the group and its flexible office competitors are increasingly important to the health of certain markets. In London, shared office groups together have accounted for 15 per cent of all new deals by square footage over the past five years, according to the property agents JLL.

In the UK, the property developer Almacantar has about 280,000 square feet devoted to WeWork and the owners of Canary Wharf Group have more than 280,000 square feet, although the financial risk is borne by the European Medicines Agency, which sub-let its office there. Other landlords with exposure include Columbia Threadneedle, the German fund Deka and the Tesco pension fund.

Another big UK landlord said: “There’s potentially a question of ‘will the whole thing explode at some stage?’. But that’s a question you need to apply to a bunch of companies in every landlord’s portfolio.”

This story has been amended to correct the amount collected

end

Simon Black also delves into We work

(Simon Black)

The Latest Sign That Absolutely Nothing Makes Sense

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

In the latest sign that absolutely nothing makes sense anymore, WeWork filed formal regulatory paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission last week, officially notifying the world that it will soon be going public.

If you haven’t heard of WeWork (or it’s parent– ‘The We Company’), it’s a real estate company that owns practically zero real estate.

Instead, they lease vast amounts of office space in commercial buildings on long-term contracts, and then sub-lease that space to individual tenants– often small businesses– with short-term contracts.

It’s essentially the same business model as Regus – which provides virtual office services, business addresses, and short-term office space, in pretty much every major city around the world.

Yet Regus is actually profitable. Its parent company, UK-based International Workspace Group, reported a profit of nearly 300 million British pounds (about $350 million USD) for the first six months of 2019. And the company consistently makes money.

WeWork, on the other hand, consistently burns cash and has no expectation of making money “in the foreseeable future” according to its own SEC filing.

In fact, WeWork lost almost $1 billion in the first six months of 2019, putting it on pace to lose even more money than the $1.9 billion it lost in 2018.

WeWork currently has around 10 million square feet of office space, and hopes to grow to 40 million in total.

But Regus already has nearly 60 million square feet of office space worldwide. And it’s still expanding.

So Regus is MUCH larger and turns a healthy profit. WeWork is smaller and loses tons of money.

You’d think that Regus would be a much more valuable company. But no. Regus is valued at less than $5 billion. While WeWork is going public at a valuation of nearly $50 billion– ten times higher.

Much of this excess is due to WeWork’s legendary silver-tongued and messianic co-founder/CEO, Adam Neumann.

Neumann has actually been able to convince people that WeWork is a technology company, as a way to justify its absurdly high valuations.

In addition to extolling their ‘culture of inclusivity’ and ‘energy of an inspired community’, the company’s SEC filing refers to their ‘extensive technology’ more than 120 times.

Of course, there’s never any description of the technology, or what it actually does.

There’s also not a SINGLE line item in WeWork’s financial statements that shows ANY research and development.

For technology companies, this is ALWAYS an important item in their financials.

Google spent $16 BILLION on research & development last year, amounting to roughly 14% of its revenue. Amazon spent $22 billion, 12% of its revenue. Facebook spent $7.8 billion, nearly 20% of its revenue.

And even stodgy old Johnson & Johnson, which doesn’t even pretend to be a tech company, spent more than $10 billion (13.8% of revenue) on research & development in 2018.

WeWork claims to be a tech company, even though all they really have is a reservation system that is slightly less impressive than what Enterprise Rent-a-Car uses.

They keep saying how important technology is to their business (as if technology isn’t important to EVERY business in 2019. Duh.)

But WeWork doesn’t even investment enough money in R&D to register a single footnote in their financial statements.

This proves, beyond all doubt, that it’s just a big, giant farce.

The biggest farce of all, though, is WeWork’s mission to “elevate the world’s consciousness.” That’s straight out of the company’s SEC filing.

Jeez I thought this was supposed to be a real estate company.

This reminds me of when Snapchat went public a few years ago; investors thought Snapchat was a sexting social media app for pedophiles teenagers.

But according to its own SEC filing, Snapchat claimed to be a camera company… which was incredibly bewildering to investors.

WeWork has totally blown Snapchat away on the absurdity scale with this nonsense about consciousness.

What does that even mean?

Business is about focusing capital, energy, and brainpower to achieve specific, tangible outcomes that support a coherent strategy.

You’re supposed to be able to measure those outcomes… otherwise it’s impossible to tell whether or not management is properly executing the plan.

How exactly does one measure ‘global consciousness’? How do you know if your plan to elevate said consciousness is working?

And most importantly, how are you supposed to make money elevating consciousness? Because that doesn’t strike me as an especially profitable venture.

But that’s exactly the point. We’re living in a world now where profits don’t matter.

I mean… there’s more than $10 TRILLION worth of bonds in the world with negative yields. Banks are even loaning money to borrowers at negativeinterest rates.

And some of the most popular (and expensive) investments in the world lose billions of dollars each year with no end in sight.

You don’t need a PhD in economics to realize that there’s something wrong with this picture.

And to continue learning how to ensure you thrive no matter what happens next in the world, I encourage you to download our free Perfect Plan B Guide.

*  *  *

Did you know? You can receive all our actionable articles straight to your email inbox… Click here to signup for our Notes from the Field newsletter.

 

end

A good reason not to pay attention to the Clowns (Fed officials)

(courtesy  Jeffery Snider)

‘Yield -Curve-Deniers’: Mainstream Economists Shrug Off Bond Market ‘Science’

 

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

One of the primary reasons Economists go unchallenged is because they’ve made the subject matter dense and complex. Needlessly so, in many cases. Anyone in the financial media or the public who wishes to challenge Jay Powell (well, maybe not Powell) on any economic concept is as likely to get a lecture on regressions and the three or four tests the Fed uses to seek out heteroscedasticity in its models, all of which purposefully avoids answering the question originally asked.

The more uncomfortable the question, the more dissembling the pseudo-scientific rant as reply. That’s the real fedspeak.

In August 2010, for example, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was confronted by another challenge he and his fellow policymakers never expected. They never anticipated the Great “Recession”, either, despite numerous market warnings as far back as 2006 that they simply shrugged off. Having just lived through the “somehow” Global Financial Crisis, they couldn’t afford to be so flippant in its aftermath.

In his speech delivered at Jackson Hole, the one that pre-announced a second round of QE, Bernanke began with an honest assessment of the situation. It wasn’t good – even though there had already been a QE1 and ZIRP. Quite naturally, people might have begun to wonder how effective the first one really had been if so soon after (QE1 terminated at the end of March 2010) there’s already a need for a second.

A first option for providing additional monetary accommodation, if necessary, is to expand the Federal Reserve’s holdings of longer-term securities. As I noted earlier, the evidence suggests that the Fed’s earlier program of purchases was effective in bringing down term premiums and lowering the costs of borrowing in a number of private credit markets.

Say what? Term premiums?

Nobody cares about term premiums and Fisherian deconstruction. What anyone wants to know is incredibly simple; whether or not QE actually works. Judging the effectiveness of monetary policy in reality is an end game scenario. Either there is a recovery, or there isn’t. And if there isn’t, it didn’t work.

So, Chairman Bernanke traveled to Wyoming as the nascent and already questionable recovery from the deepest and most sustained (and “somehow” global) economic contraction since the Great Depression was unexpectedly foundering. Officials had already skated by having avoided the uncomfortable questions as to how there was a Great “Recession” on their watch in the first place.

Thus was born policymakers’ longstanding and ongoing infatuation with term premiums. They don’t show up much at all in the mainstream literature before then (not with Alan Greenspan and his series of one-year forwards already confusing things). In the absence of robust recovery, or any sense of real recovery, how does any official justify the eventual four programs of QE?

Should anyone ask if QE was effective, Bernanke (and Yellen) would always answer with “term premiums.” Not recovery, accelerating growth, or robust inflation. Term premiums!

Why?

Because these are just complicated enough so that no one really understands what anyone referring to them might be talking about. And since they aren’t observable, term premiums are simulated using complex mathematical models, the questioner is immediately at a huge disadvantage. The perfect getaway setup. 

But it really shouldn’t be this way. Like any good high school math teacher, demand that these people show their work. Don’t ever allow them to just produce an answer without first producing the calculations backing it up. And I don’t mean the regressions.

The thing about term premiums is really two things; first, forgetting the fact that they are a ridiculous made up idea so that Economists can try (and fail) to plug interest rates into econometric models (in the few cases they do), simulations already suggest term premiums have fallen more without QE than with it. Even on its own terms, term premiums fail to live up.

Bernanke in 2015 conceded that point:

What about the decline in longer-term yields since early 2014? In the US at least, that decline is somewhat surprising, as economic fundamentals have recently seemed more consistent with rising, not falling, longer-term yields… By the process of elimination, with fundamentals stable or improving, much of the decline in yields over the past year must reflect a sharp drop in term premiums. [emphasis added]

What did he eliminate in his thought process in order to blame solely term premiums? The other two parts of nominal yields – both of which, unfortunately for Dr. Bernanke, we do have observable inputs for. There are markets which do give us a very good, and robust, sense of the other factors being considered in falling yields.

Those other two pieces are inflation expectations and the anticipated future path of short-term interest rates. (I’ve written about term premiums and rate decomposition here if you want more details and descriptions.) They are Bernanke’s second downfall.

The reason it has to be term premiums is because Bernanke, Janet Yellen, or Jay Powell all say inflation is going to rise and so will short-term interest rates. Guaranteed. Take it to the bank. The Fed will therefore be hiking short-term rates and since they don’t believe the bond market would ever, ever disagree with them, process of elimination, it therefore must be term premiums that are causing yields to fall (when these same people say they should be rising).

Whether in 2015 or more recently, the market evidence for the other two pieces of the yield picture are pretty unequivocal. The market is obviously expecting a very different set of circumstances than policymakers, an increasingly dangerous scenario of lower inflation, not higher, at the same time it is thinking lower short-term rates, not rate hikes.

Not for nothing, the eurodollar futures curve inverted all the way back in June 2018 at a time when everyone thought the very idea of rate cuts was absurd. With one rate cut now in the books, the market-based inputs are showing theirwork.

It actually isn’t all that difficult to challenge the assertion, especially with market prices in hand. And it’s becoming even more of a necessity now that people are (finally) paying attention to the yield curve.

This week Janet Yellen started the clown show by saying you shouldn’t trust the inversion. Why not? Term premiums. She wasn’t the only one; it spread immediately around the world. Yesterday:

I’m not sure I would be relying on the yield curve as the best signal of that risk given the yield curve has obviously not got the same sort of structure that it’s had historically.

That was the typically unchallenged judgment of one deputy governor from the Reserve Bank of Australia. With nominal rates collapsing in the US and elsewhere, not only must term premiums be low they must now be really, really negative. That’s the only way left to (try to) dismiss what is, and has been for awhile, otherwise a very obvious negative signal.

They get away with what is pretty clear nonsense (deeply negative term premiums fail every measure of logic) because they know they’ll never, ever be asked to show their work.

Not only has the market already done it, unlike Yellen’s and Bernanke’s its proofs are being tested and validated as we speak. As I wrote elsewhere:

The inverted curve is simply the market saying to Janet Yellen, I told you so but like 2007 you refused to listen…

That’s the problem with being forced into looking at everything backward. No matter how much you try to convince yourself that R-stars and term premiums are meaningful and righteous assessments, you can’t ever shake that nagging feeling that the thing really is what it is.

Term premiums are not science nor really math. They are made up and more than that they are rationalizations, truly Orwellian, intended to deny the obvious and straightforward signals coming from the very fundamental building blocks of all finance and economy. The entire notion is purposefully shrouded in unnecessarily complex concepts whose only true use is to attempt to answer for the otherwise inexcusable.

As I often write, Economists don’t understand bonds. But they know just enough of them to understand that they had better change the subject.

end
Disney shares slide as a whistleblower claims revenues have been materially overstated for years
(zerohedge)

Disney Shares Slide As Whistleblower Claims Revenues “Materially Overstated”

DIS shares gave up the day’s gains into the close and into after-hours following reports from a whistleblower that the company had materially overstated revenue for years.

MarketWatch reports that Sandra Kuba, formerly a senior financial analyst in Disney’s revenue-operations department who worked for the company for 18 years, alleges that employees working in the parks-and-resorts business segment systematically overstated revenue by billions of dollars by exploiting weaknesses in the company’s accounting software.

Kuba said she has met with officials from the SEC on several occasions to discuss the allegations.

The reaction was swift but not dramatic…

 

According to the report, a spokeswoman for the SEC declined to comment while a Disney spokesperson said the claims had been reviewed and were found to be “utterly without merit.”

end

v) Swamp commentaries)

It is official the Epstein death is ruled suicide by hanging. I am not so sure she is correct. Still we have not heard of an explanation on the shrieking noise coming from Epstein’s cell

(zerohedge)

It’s Official: Epstein Committed Suicide By Hanging, Medical Examiner Rules

A New York medical examiner announced on Friday that Jeffrey Epstein committed suicide by hanging himself in his jail cell, according to CNBC.

The 66-year-old millionaire pedophile was found in his cell on Saturday morning at the Manhattan Metropolitan Correctional Center (MCC), after which he was rushed to a nearby hospital and pronounced dead.

Epstein was remanded to jail pending trial on charges of sex trafficking of minors and sex trafficking conspiracy, which were lodged by federal prosecutors in Manhattan last month. He was accused of abusing dozens of underage girls in his mansions in New York and Palm Beach, Florida, between 2002 and 2005. –CNBC

The ruling comes after the Washington Post revealed that Epstein’s autopsy found multiple breaks in his neck bones commonly found in victims of homicide by strangulation, the hyoid bone near the Adam’s apple.

Epstein’s blood vessels in his eyes popped when his air supply was cut off by the bed sheet that was wrapped around his neck … this according to law enforcement sources briefed on the case. We’re told he suffered petechial hemorrhaging, caused when someone hangs himself or is strangled or smothered, but authorities are confident this was a hanging.
We’re told the bed sheets were tied to the top of a bunk bed and Epstein either hurled himself off the top bunk or had his feet to the ground and leaned forward to cut off his air supply. Authorities believe the former is true, because throwing himself off the top bunk and falling violently to the ground could explain why his hyoid bone was fractured. –TMZ

That still doesn’t explain the shrieking heard from Epstein’s jail cell according to reports.

END

The Epstein prison guards are not cooperating with the Dept of Justice probe. In the Epstein case, the hyoid bone was shattered which normally occurs in strangulation and not hanging.  Also the noose around the neck was lower subject to the location of the hyoid bone

(zeorhedge)

 

Epstein Prison Guards “Not Cooperating” With DOJ Probe 

Employees at the Manhattan Metropolitan Correctional Center where convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein reportedly took his own life last week are not cooperating with the Justice Department investigators according to Fox News.

Two senior DOJ officials sent by Attorney General William Barr have been on-site at MCC while the agency’s Inspector General investigates the situation. According to a senior DOJ official, Barr said that “serious irregularities” had been uncovered at the jail.

The night of Epstein’s death, correctional officers did not check on the extremely high-profile prisoner for “several hours” before he died, despite being required to look in on him every 30 minutes. Moreover, guards are suspected of falsifying log entries to show that they were checking as required, according to the Associated Press.

In response, officials with the Federal Bureau of Prisons have been on-site at MCC to assist with the investigation.

BOP officials from various regional offices have also been sent to the Manhattan facility to lend their expertise and insight. In addition, a separate BOP “After Action Team” went to MCC earlier this week in an effort to examine what happened the night Epstein died. The use of the “After Action Team” is part of BOP protocol whenever a “significant event takes place at a prison.

Epstein was found dead in his cell on Aug. 10. Earlier Friday, New York City’s medical examiner officially ruled the 66-year-old’s death a suicide by hanging.

Fox News has also learned that 20 of 21 prison staff posts were filled between the hours of 4 p.m. and 12 a.m. on Friday, Aug. 9, the day before Epstein was found. Of those prison workers, six of them were working voluntary overtime. Between 12 a.m. and 8 a.m. on Saturday, Aug. 10, 18 of 19 staff posts were filled. Of those 18 staffers, 10 were working overtime and all but one of those were doing so voluntarily. –Fox News

Two staffers have been placed on administrative leave, while MCC’s warden was reassigned pending the investigation.

It is indisputable that the authorities violated their own protocols,” said Epstein’s attorneys, Martin Weinberg, Reid Weingarten and Michael Miller. “The defense team fully intends to conduct its own independent and complete investigation into the circumstances and cause of Mr. Epstein’s death including if necessary legal action to view the pivotal videos – if they exist as they should – of the area proximate to Mr. Epstein’s cell during the time period leading to his death.”

Epstein’s attorneys also addressed the deceased pedophile’s controversial autopsy, which concluded that he hanged himself using bed-sheets, breaking his hyoid bone near the Adam’s apple. This is typically only broken during strangulation victims, however they can also be broken via hanging – particularly if the person is older.

We are not satisfied with the conclusions of the medical examiner,” they said, adding “We will have a more complete response in the coming days” (and will bill Epstein’s estate accordingly, we’re sure).

Meanwhile, several women are suing Epstein’s estate, claiming he sexually abused them.

The suit, filed Thursday in a federal court in New York, claims the women were working as hostesses at a popular Manhattan restaurant in 2004 when they were recruited to give Epstein massages. One was 18 at the time. The other was 20.

The lawsuit says an unidentified female recruiter offered the hostesses hundreds of dollars to provide massages to Epstein, saying he ‘liked young, pretty girls to massage him,’ and wouldn’t engage in any unwanted touching. The women say Epstein groped them anyway.

One plaintiff now lives in Japan, the other in Baltimore. They seek $100 million in damages, citing depression, anxiety, anger and flashbacks.

Other lawsuits, filed over many years by other women, accused him of hiring girls as young as 14 or 15 to give him massages, then subjecting them to sex acts. –Daily Mail

Epstein had faced up to 45 years in prison if found guilty of exploiting dozens of underage girls at his residences in Manhattan and Florida between 2002 and 2005.

END
Meet another Epstein associates:  Jean Luc Brunel
(zerohedge

After Allegations Of Druggings And Rape, Epstein-Pal And His Modeling Agencies Come Into Focus

Following the death of Jeffrey Epstein, his seedy network of friends and potential co-conspirators alike have come into the spotlight.

One associate, considered to be Epstein’s closest pal, is modeling maven Jean-Luc Brunel – who has recently been accused of pimping underage women around the world through his Mc2 and Karin modeling agencies, while former models have accused the 72-year-old of drugging and date-raping girlsaccording to the Daily Beast.

How close were Brunel and Epstein?

Brunel was one of the financier’s most frequent male associates. The agent appears more than 15 times on flight logs from Epstein’s private plane, jetting everywhere from Paris to New York, often in the presence of young women. He visited Epstein nearly 70 times in jail, according to visitor logs, and several more times while the financier was on house arrest in Palm Beach. According to one of Epstein’s housemen, Brunel was comfortable enough to whip up his own meals in the financier’s kitchen, and was one of Epstein’s most frequent callers. –Daily Beast

Brunel’s name appeared in a cache of court documents unsealed earlier this month, having called and left a message to let Epstein know that he “just did a good one – 18 years” who reportedly told him “I love Jeffrey.”

“He has a teacher for you to teach you how to speak Russian,” reads another note from September 2005, which adds “She is 2 X 8 [16] years old not blonde. Lessons are free and you can have 1st today if you call.”

Epstein also extended a $1 million letter of credit to Brunel which was used to invest in Paris-based Elite Models. According to the Beast, “The venture, E Management, was first registered by Epstein’s attorney, who listed its address as 457 Madison Avenue—the same as Epstein’s investment firm, J. Epstein & Co.”

Brunel says the venture fell apart after Elite Models learned of Epstein’s sex-trafficking allegations – with the agent even suing Epstein in 2015 for tarnishing their reputation and causing a “tremendous loss of business.”

At least two people say Brunel not only knew about the sex trafficking, he was actively participating in it.

Virginia Roberts (now Giuffre)—one of the first alleged victims to speak out against Epstein after he was granted a sweetheart plea deal—claimed in legal filings that Brunel was one of many powerful men she was forced to sleep with in her years as Epstein’s “sex slave.” She also accused Brunel of using his agency to find foreign girls, obtain visas for them, and “farm them out to his friends, including Epstein.”

“A lot of the girls came from poor countries or poor backgrounds, and he lured them in with a promise of making good money,” Giuffre said in a 2015 affidavit. “Jeffrey Epstein has told me that he has slept with over 1,000 of Brunel’s girls, and everything that I have seen confirms this claim.” –Daily Beast

My assumption was that Jean-Luc Brunel got the girls from Eastern Europe (as he procured many young foreign girls for Epstein). They were young and European looking and sounding,” said Guiffre while describing an orgy she says she was forced to participate in on Epstein’s ‘pedo island.’

In a 1988 60 Minutes piece, several American models who worked with Brunel spoke of being plied with drugs and taken to parties with older men.

“My sense, based upon the allegations, is that Jean-Luc was a predator, his group was a predator, and they used their tools of power and leverage to force sex from women who otherwise might not be willing to engage in it,” one of the reporters from the 60 Minutes piece told the Daily Beast.

Former model Thysia Huisman was 18-years-old when she says Brunel sexually assaulted her after giving her a spiked drink.

I recall him lying on top of me, me trying to push him off,” she said in an interview. “I remember trying to move, but not really being able to. Like almost being paralysed. I heard the sound of my blouse – a black blouse – ripping. I had a black skirt, too. I felt him – this is difficult – between my legs. Pushing.”

Huisman said the rest was a blur. She woke the next morning in a kimono that wasn’t hers, with soreness on her inner thighs. “I felt we had had sex,” she said. “I knew. I know.”

She gathered her things and fled while Brunel spoke on the telephone in the living room, she said. Her modelling work never recovered and she embarked on a career in television, always behind the camera.

“I was really ashamed,” she said. Huisman said she began telling her current partner about the incident eight years ago. He confirmed to the Guardian she then told him she was “molested” by someone at her modelling agency, and added more details – including Brunel’s name – over time, explaining the full story about two years ago. –The Guardian

Another former model, Courtney Soerensen, says Brunel molested her when she was 19-years-old, and “sabotaged” her career when she rejected him.

 

Courtney Soerensen, Thysia Huisman

“He would get very handsy, start groping me, try to kiss me, try to get me to lay down on the bed just to ‘try it out’” said Soerensen. “He would try to untuck my shirt, wanting to ‘see my abs’. He would grab my breasts and put his hand on my bottom. There was one time where he rubbed himself up against me.

The guy was a vile pig” says former Brunel photographer and scout Clayton Nelson. “The girls who slept with him worked. The girls who didn’t, he would tell bookers: ‘I don’t want her booked for anything’.”

Former MC2 bookkeeper Martina Vasquez has also accused Brunel of similar behavior, claiming that Brunel employed scouts who would recruit teenage models from South America, Europe and the former USSR. “The most desirable of those teens were housed in Epstein’s Upper East Side apartments and loaned out to wealthy clients for up to $100,000 a night, Vasquez alleged. If they refused to be “molested,” she said, they would not be paid. (Brunel has denied these claims and says Vasquez was fired from his agency for embezzling company funds.)” according to the report.

Bloomberg, meanwhile, reports that MC2 Model Management had a growing list of concerned corporate clients by 2014 after Brunel’s ties to Epstein came to light.

By 2014, Brunel’s business partner Jeff Fuller was concerned that the relationship with Epstein could be damaging. In a letter reviewed by Bloomberg News, Fuller told Brunel that he was getting a “tremendous amount of worries from our clients” about the ties to Epstein, then went on to list as clients Nordstrom Inc., Macy’s Inc., Saks Fifth Avenue, Neiman Marcus, J.C. Penney Co., Kohl’s Corp., Target Corp., Sears and Belk. –Bloomberg

Brunel has denied all allegations of impropriety.

END
A.G. Barr fires Prisons Chief
(zerohedge)

AG Barr Fires Prisons Chief After Epstein Case Leaves Country Hanging

Just days after the ‘suiciding’ of Establishment Enemy #1 Jeffrey Epstein, Attorney General William Barr has ordered the removal of acting Bureau of Prisons director Hugh Hurwitz from the top position in aftermath of Epstein death.

Barr is reportedly appointing Kathleen Hawk as Director the Federal Bureau of Prisons (with Thomas R.Kane as Deputy).

This move by Barr comes a few days after Reps. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY), Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee and Doug Collins (R-GA), Ranking Member of the House Judiciary Committee, today sent a letter to the Acting Director of the Bureau of Prisons, Hugh Hurwitz, to demand answers after Jeffrey Epstein was found dead from an apparent suicide while in custody at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in New York.

Dear Acting Director Hurwitz:

As Chairman and Ranking Member of the House Committee on the Judiciary, we write concerning the news, as provided in a statement by Attorney General William Barr and a press release subsequently issued by the Bureau of Prisons (BOP), that Jeffrey Epstein was found dead from an apparent suicide on the morning of August 10, 2019, while in your custody at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in New York (MCC New York).

The apparent suicide of this high-profile and—if allegations are proven to be accurate—particularly reprehensible individual while in the federal government’s custody demonstrates severe miscarriages of or deficiencies in inmate protocol and has allowed the deceased to ultimately evade facing justice.  Any victims of Mr. Epstein’s actions will forever be denied proper recourse and the scintilla of recompense our justice system can provide in the face of such alleged atrocities; the competency and rigor of our criminal justice system has been marred by this apparent oversight.

As the Attorney General stated, “Mr. Epstein’s death raises serious questions that must be answered.”   We agree, and therefore ask that you provide responses to the following questions concerning this incident, and BOP policies pertaining to inmates considered at risk for suicide and how such policies were implemented in this case.

  1. We understand that BOP implements its suicide prevention program pursuant to BOP Program Statement P5324.08.  Is this correct?  Please provide copies of any other documents that may govern the implementation of this program on a Bureau-wide basis and also any documents internal to MCC New York applying to the implementation of suicide prevention policies at that facility.
  2. Since July 6, when Mr. Epstein arrived at MCC New York as a pretrial detainee, what evaluations were conducted concerning his mental status and possible risk of suicide?  Please provide any documents related to any such evaluations.
  3. Please describe the classifications of the housing units Mr. Epstein was placed in for each day he was in custody, and whether or not Mr. Epstein was placed in single-cell confinement or restrictive housing.
  4. Does MCC New York have rooms specifically designated for housing inmates on suicide watch?
  5. What is BOP, and MCC New York’s policy regarding the placement and housing conditions of inmates accused of sex offenses?  Was this policy followed in this instance?
  6. What is BOP’s policy concerning single-cell confinement, or restrictive housing, for inmates (and pretrial detainees, if different) presenting with mental health concerns?  What is BOP’s policy concerning such confinement for pretrial detainees and inmates presenting with risk of possible suicide?
  7. Please describe the circumstances of Mr. Epstein’s confinement, including whether he was housed alone for the entirety of his incarceration or with other inmates, and the conditions of the cell or cells where he was confined.
  8. Please describe the nature of BOP’s monitoring of Mr. Epstein while on suicide watch and while not on suicide watch, including, under both circumstances, the number of correctional officers assigned to monitor him, and the frequency and nature of check-ins or contact with Mr. Epstein by correctional officers.
  9. Please provide information pertaining to the individual correctional officers who were responsible for monitoring Mr. Epstein on August 9 and August 10, specifically with respect to how long they had been on their shifts at the time Mr. Epstein had been found non-responsive in his cell.
  10. It has been reported that Mr. Epstein had been placed on suicide watch at some point while in custody, and that this watch was terminated.  Is this correct?  If so, please provide the date and time when he was placed on suicide watch and the date and time when he was removed from suicide watch.
  11. It is our understanding that BOP policy states that only the “program coordinator” for a facility’s suicide prevention program has the authority to remove an inmate from suicide watch.  Is this correct?
  12. Does MCC New York have such a program coordinator?  Did he or she authorize the removal of Mr. Epstein from suicide watch?  If not, who did?
  13. Did the program coordinator consult with anyone else in making this determination?  If so, who?
  14. Was the termination of Mr. Epstein’s suicide watch by the official who made such determination discussed with or directed by any supervisory personnel or leadership of BOP or any DOJ personnel or executive branch personnel outside of BOP?
  15. Who at BOP, DOJ, and elsewhere in the executive branch was notified of the termination of Mr. Epstein’s suicide watch and when?
  16. It is our understanding that BOP policy requires that the program coordinator issue a “post-watch” report prior to, or as soon as possible following, watch termination.  In the case of Mr. Epstein, was such a report issued?  If so, please provide a copy of the report and any underlying evaluation and documentation.  If not, please otherwise detail the basis for removing Mr. Epstein from suicide watch and provide any related evaluation and documentation.
  17. If Mr. Epstein was removed from suicide watch, what precautions were put in place to help prevent the possibility of self-injury for Mr. Epstein given that he was transitioning from suicide watch?  Were there any steps taken to remove possible implements of self-injury?
  18. If, as you have stated, Mr. Epstein died of an apparent suicide, what are the facts and circumstances that led you to make that determination, and please provide a copy of the report of the autopsy which was subsequently performed.
  19. Was any plan implemented to check in on and observe Mr. Epstein on a regular basis after the termination of his suicide watch?
  20. Were any video surveillance cameras placed in or near Mr. Epstein’s cell?   Were they operational in the hours prior to and during the time of the injury to and death of Mr. Epstein?  Did they indicate or do recordings show the circumstances that led to Mr. Epstein’s death, or the presence of any other person during this time period?
  21. What is BOP’s policy for providing recurring, specific mental health and suicide prevention training to its personnel?
  22. When the relevant supervisory personnel and correctional staff at MCC New York last receive suicide prevention training?
  23. Do BOP’s suicide prevention policies apply to all prisons which provide housing for federal inmates, including contract facilities?

The Attorney General has stated that the FBI and the Inspector General of the Department of Justice are investigating the death of Mr. Epstein, and we look forward to learning the results of their inquiries.  However, it is imperative that the Committee on the Judiciary, which has the responsibility to exercise oversight over the Department of Justice, receive responses to these questions related to the adequacy of BOP’s suicide prevention policies and their implementation in this instance, as soon as possible.  Therefore, please respond to these questions by August 21.

*  *  *

Developing…

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

The Street and expiry manipulators wanted to be bullish for expiration after an expiry week with some ugly declines.  Trump provided rally liftoff on Thursday night with another tweet that was intended to induce traders to buy ESUs in the thin overnight market.

Before the end of the first hour of US trading, Germany provided the booster rocket for the expiry rally.

Germany Ready to Raise Debt If Recession Hits, Spiegel Reports

Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz would be willing to increase debt in order to offset a tax revenue shortfall due to an economic slump… Under the German constitution, net federal debt can increase by only 0.35% of output if there is GDP growth. Rules are relaxed during a recession, allowing a slightly larger increase of debt…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-16/germany-ready-to-raise-debt-if-recession-hits-spiegel-reports

China reluctant to place large soybean orders despite Donald Trump’s US trade war demands

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3023105/china-reluctant-place-large-soybean-orders-despite-donald

@NorthmanTrader: Reality check: after 10 years of nonstop intervention & record debt expansion we’re right back where we started:Without more stimulus, rate cuts, and coming QE everything falls apart.

What’s that tell you about the true state of economies and financial markets?

At 12:10 ET on Friday the following story/headline appeared:

Trump called the CEOs of the biggest US banks on Wednesday as the stock market plunged

The president asked the three men to give him a read on the health of the U.S. consumer, according to one of the people. The executives responded that the consumer is doing well, but that they could be doing even better if issues including the China-U.S. trade war were resolved, this person said…

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/trump-reportedly-held-call-with-major-bank-ceos-on-wednesday-as-the-stock-market-plunged.html

If Trump was rattled when the S&P 500 Index was less than 6% below its all-time high, how panicky will Trump be when something significantly bad occurs?  Has there ever been a US President more obsessed with the stock market than Don Yuan Trump?

ESUS and US stocks peaked at 11:00 ET.  They then went inert until Minny Fed President Kashkari stated that it’s better for the Fed to be “early and aggressive” in responding to a slowdown.  Therefore, ‘the Fed probably needs to provide more support to the economy’ and ‘pullback on interest rates’.  Apparently, Kashkari and Bullard are in a suck-up-to-Trump contest to replace Powell.

Kashkari’s pandering for Powell’s chair pushed ESUs and stocks to new session highs.  ESUs rolled over after the Kashkari rally and traded within a 5-handle range until the manipulation for the expiry close appeared.  Five minutes before the close, traders & manipulators tried to take profits.  ESUs fell 5.00.

Central Bankers in Glass Houses

The Fed was politicized long before Donald Trump got to the White House or even started tweeting.

   The politicization wrought by Fed leaders’ actions produces major adverse consequences. Arthur Burns’s kowtowing to President Nixon behind closed doors decades ago was one example. Today Fed leaders have created a different set of problems, but the result is the same: The Fed is anything but independent…   https://www.wsj.com/articles/central-bankers-in-glass-houses-11565910399

US Contemplates 50- and 100-year Bonds after Yields Plummet [Trial balloon, seek St. reaction]

Treasury conducting an outreach on ultra-long debt issuance

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-16/u-s-treasury-to-do-market-outreach-again-on-ultra-long-bonds-jzejo2qu

Inflation Stings Prices at Walmart, and Something’s Gotta Give

Consumer goods prices rose 2.3% in first six months of 2019

A Walmart shopping trip was 5.2% more expensive in June compared with a year earlier, according to Gordon Haskett Research Advisors… Coca-Cola Co., PepsiCo Inc., Procter & Gamble Co. and Kellogg Co. are among those jacking up prices… [For decades we have complained that CPI is bogus.]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-10/walmart-feels-inflation-sting-prices-and-something-s-gotta-giv

CEOs see pay grow 1,000% in the last 40 years, now make 278 times the average worker [11.9%]

Wealth disparity continuing to accelerate, particularly since the financial crisis… [Due to QE, NZIRP]

  That’s [CEO to Average Worker pay] up from 58 times in 1989 and 20 times in 1964…

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/ceos-see-pay-grow-1000percent-and-now-make-278-times-the-average-worker.html

Citigroup’s Robert Buckland warns that QE, ZIRP and NZIRP are shrinking global equity markets and inflating global debt markets.  Financial management 101 tells us that less equity and more debt is an increase in risk.  Buckland says the US equity market has shrunk 2.5% this year; UK stocks have contracted 3%.  Bob says there is ‘no end in sight’ for the equity shrinkage because debt is absurdly cheap and CEOs are under pressure to produce good results and share repurchasing boosts earnings.

Shrunken stock markets are a rising political risk

Trend towards ‘de-equitisation’ is not likely to reverse any time so

https://www.ft.com/content/77c0c64a-bdb8-11e9-89e2-41e555e96722

The IIF said trouble continues to brew as total US corporate debt climbs to US$15.5 trillion, which is 74 per cent of US GDP… fully one-third is made up of leveraged loans and junk bonds…

https://www.investmentmagazine.com.au/2019/07/iif-investors-exposed-to-leveraged-loans-and-clos/

So, the enterprise value of US companies is about 200% of GDP.  With debt absurdly cheap, it’s time to think really big about levering up to buy hard assets.

Trump reportedly wants to buy Greenland. So did the Truman administration.

… Was first floated in the 1860s, when a report commissioned by the State Department under President Andrew Johnson concluded that the icebound island’s abundance of fish and mineral resources could make it a valuable investment… And in 1946, President Harry Truman’s administration went even further, offering to purchase Greenland from Denmark in exchange for $100 million in gold..

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/08/16/trump-greenland-purchase-harry-truman-denmark/?noredirect=on

Large Firms Trim Debt, Fueling Surge in Bonds at Center of Leverage Concerns

Debt reduction by AT&T and others helps lowest tier of investment-grade bonds outpace market

    AT&T, the world’s largest nonfinancial corporate borrower, has sold assets and used free cash flow to reduce its net debt by roughly $9 billion since the start of the year…

https://www.wsj.com/articles/large-firms-trim-debt-fueling-surge-in-bonds-at-center-of-leverage-concerns-11566129601

Is the issue debt to repurchase stock boom ending?  New data points have appeared.

@nytimes:  “You have no choice but to vote for me because your 401(k), everything is going to be down the tubes,” President Trump told the crowd. “Whether you love me or hate me, you’ve got to vote for me.  [DJT’s most true statement ever: Many Americans dislike or hate him; but the Deep State, socialists and abject Establishment corruption alternatives are worse.]

Johnson to raise Brexit stakes in visits [Wed & Thur] to Germany and France    https://yhoo.it/2HdO4ag

[On Friday] U.S. set to give Huawei another 90 days to buy from American suppliers

The “temporary general license” will be extended for Huawei for 90 days, the sources said… U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to discuss Huawei in a call this weekend, one of the sources said… [Another DJT cave to China]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-huawei-tech-usa-license-exclusive/exclusive-u-s-set-to-give-huawei-another-90-days-to-buy-from-american-suppliers-sources-idUSKCN1V701U

Early last evening, Mighty Mouth, probably due to political pressure, did a double reverse on Huawei.

Trump says he doesn’t want to do business with Huawei due to national security concerns

“We are open not to doing business with it,” Trump said of Huawei…

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/18/trump-says-he-doesnt-want-to-do-business-with-huawei-due-to-national-security-concerns.html

*Trump: It Could Be Temporary and It Could Be Not but we’re making a Decision Tomorrow.

*Trump: I’m not ready to make a deal yet with China.

*Trump says reaching a trade deal with China may be more difficult if violence continues to erupt in Hong Kong – all of the above from BBG

Today – ESUs surged to +16.25 when they opened last night despite Trump’s Huawei reversal.  Traders are playing for the expected Monday.  ESUs are +11.50 at 21:00 ET.  After expiration, barring news or DJT tweets, stocks tend to open soft and rally later on post-expiry position squaring.

There are two bullish hooks this week: 1) Trump and Xi communicating on trade; and 2) Powell speaks on Friday at the KC Fed’s annual Jackson Hole, WY.  The fin media are already declaring that Powell will cancel his ‘mid-cycle adjustment’ jive and announce that the Fed will commence a new rate cut cycle.  Ergo, traders will buy dips and get long late in the week for Powell’s expected rate-cut speech.

On Sunday, Kudlow said the recently rescinded 10% tariffs will likely be reinstated after Christmas.  Appearing on Fox New, Uncle Lar asserted, “I don’t see a recession at all.”

The yuan ref rate is 7.0312 (7.0306 exp.).  ESUs are +14.25 at 21:30 ET on another DJT China tweet.

end

Weaponizing Biotech: How China’s Military is preparing for a ‘New Domain of Warfare’

The 2017 edition of Science of Military Strategy, a textbook published by the PLA’s National Defense University that is considered to be relatively authoritative, debuted a section about biology as a domain of military struggle, similarly mentioning the potential for new kinds of biological warfare to include “specific ethnic genetic attacks.”…

     U.S. policymakers have been concerned, if not troubled, by the company’s access to the genetic information of Americans. BGI has been pursuing a range of partnerships, including with the University of California and with the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia on human genome sequencing…

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2019/08/chinas-military-pursuing-biotech/159167/?oref=DefenseOneTCO

Steven J. Cannel, the prolific TV writer (Rockford Files, A Team, The Commish) penned a book in 1999 titled The Devil’s Workshop.  The horrific plot line has the US developing a bioweapon that can be genetically engineered to kill specific ethnic groups.  We heard him promote the book on a late-night show.  It was disturbing.  Biotech is now far more advanced than it was in 1999.

https://www.publishersweekly.com/978-0-688-16618-2

@RyanAFournier: It’s unbelievable to think that Trump took on the Clinton dynasty, Bush dynasty, the Obama’s, 16 GOP candidates, the fake news media, Robert Mueller, and the biased tech companies… Yet, he still came out on top [Cuz Americans detest the Establishment more than they dislike DJT.]

@realDonaldTrump: The Failing New York Times, in one of the most devastating portrayals of bad journalism in history, got caught by a leaker that they are shifting  from their Phony Russian Collusion Narrative (the Mueller Report & his testimony were a total disaster), to a Racism Witch Hunt.  ”Journalism” has reached a new low in the history of our Country. It is nothing more than an evil propaganda machine for the Democrat Party. The reporting is so false, biased and evil that it has now become a very sick joke…But the public is aware!

Ex-CBS reporter @SharylAttkisson: The NYT says it is mapping out a narrative in advance of any naturally-occurring, true news events, and plans to shape all natural-occurring, true news events so that they are reported in the context of racism. This is what they believe their readers want.

Senator @tedcruz: The NYT is destroying itself w/ Trump hatred. And it’s ultimately bad for freedom of the press when “journalists” openly revel in being partisan propagandistsThe Editor says (in effect) “for 2 yrs, we covered ‘Russia, Russia, Russia,’ facts be damned; now we’ll scream ‘racism, racism, racism’ for 18 mos, and the rest of the media follow us.”

@AriFleischer: The most troubling part of NYT editor Dean Baquet’s speech to his newsroom was his admission: “our readers…cheer us when we take on Donald Trump.” He added that Trump voters don’t read the Times.

@AnnCoulter: Same with almost all media, except Twitter.  Newspapers, websites and cable news “report” whatever their readers/viewers want to hear.Truth is barely a consideration.

@ArthurSchwartz: NY Daily News complains that our politics is mean-spirited. Then their top editorialist calls Trump a “fat baby.”

UK bans ads over gender stereotypes in landmark ruling

Adverts by cream cheese maker Philadelphia and car giant Volkswagen will no longer appear on UK television, the agency ruled. But both companies have insisted their adverts did not involve sexist tropes.

    The Philadelphia advert featured two men being distracted by the cream cheese snack and forgetting about their babies, which the ASA said “implied that the fathers had failed to look after the children properly because of their gender.”… UK authorities introduced the new rules in June, after pressure from campaigners focusing on sexism… [Brits are living 1984 and Fahrenheit 451.]

https://www.dw.com/en/uk-bans-ads-over-gender-stereotypes-in-landmark-ruling/a-50017637

Parody site @TheBabylonBee: Six-Year-Old Saying, ‘Why Don’t We Just Give Everything Away For Free?’ Surges to Top of Democratic Polls

end

We will leave you tonight with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter

(Greg hunter/USAWatchdog)

Former CIA Spook: “Russian Hoax Coup & Epstein Are Interlocked”

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Former CIA Officer and whistleblower Kevin Shipp says the Russian hoax and attempted coup of President Trump and the sex trafficking case against Jeffery Epstein are linked together by the same Deep State players.

Shipp explains, “The FBI has completely raided his vault, and they have some pretty damning material…”

I don’t know why it took so long, but they have raided Epstein’s island… So, there is a lot of damning information the FBI has now on certain people. At the top of the list, and the one who flew the most, was Bill Clinton. Then he lied about it. They are intertwined in that regard and with the Clinton Foundation that we know is a fraud. It is known around the world, and you’ve got these two intersections with Bill and Hillary Clinton.

Of course, Hillary Clinton is tied to the dossier in an attempt to get rid of Donald Trump. So, these webs interlocked with each other, and these people interlock with each other. Welcome to the global elite. Welcome to human trafficking. These things are connected, and with Epstein dead, there are a lot of prominent people breathing a sigh of relief—for now. Is Barr aggressive enough? He says he is going to pursue this case anyway. Is he going to call in the people seen on the CD’s, videos and photographs? That remains to be seen.”

On Epstein’s officially ruled suicide while in prison, Shipp says, “Epstein tries to commit ‘suicide,’ and his cellmate, a four-time convicted murderer, said he didn’t see (or hear) it because he had his headphones on. Attorney General William Barr was in charge of the safety of Jeffery Epstein. There should have been an entire contingent of U.S. Marshals to protect this huge witness, but there were none... Why is that? …”

It is just unbelievable how they left this huge witness to die in prison. The prison guards were off, as we know. The cameras were not functioning. He was taken off of suicide watch and on and on we go. There are so many things that add up to this not being a suicide that it is remarkable. . . …

We are all still hoping that Attorney General Barr will do his job and people are charged, but this is starting to bother me a little bit. A major witness that was connected to high level people in government and finance was left alone to die in prison, and I think he was murdered. This was all left to happen by William Barr. The pieces to this just don’t add up…

We’ve got so many strange things going on here that do not add up, and Attorney General Barr is ultimately responsible for this happening.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with former CIA Officer and author of the top selling book about the Deep State called “From the Company of Shadows.

 

end

Well that is all for today

I will see you Tuesday night.

 

 

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