AUGUST 20/DOW REVERSES COURSE DOWN 174 POINTS//GOLD UP $2.90 BUT SILVER THE STAR, UP 20 CENTS/A HONG KONG CITIZEN AND A BRITISH EMBASSY EMPLOYEE DETAINED IN SHENZHEN AND HIS WHEREABOUTS ARE UNKNOWN..A POTENTIAL POWDER KEG!// ITALY’S CONTE RESIGNS AND NOW THE PRESIDENT WILL CALL ON NEW ELECTIONS AS THE FUN BEGINS IN ITALY//AMAZING: MISS NEVADA NOT ALLOWED TO COMPETE IN THIS YEAR’S MISS AMERICA CONTEST BECAUSE OF HER PRO TRUMP VIEWS//

GOLD:$1505.90 UP 2.90(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver: $17.16 UP 20 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

option trading silver:

We are now entering options expiry week for the comex which ends a week day, August 27.2019

OTC/ LBMA expires on Friday, the 30th.

 

What is very interesting is the quantity of silver contracts that are in the money as silver has rise quite nicely over these past two months. There is going to be a lot of silver being exercised and we may see a silver squeeze

(read James Turk/Kingworldnews/below)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1507.50

 

silver:  $17.18

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 046/118

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,500.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/19/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 08/21/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 34
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
661 C JP MORGAN 46
686 C INTL FCSTONE 39 17
690 C ABN AMRO 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 54 15
800 C MAREX SPEC 21 2
905 C ADM 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 118 118
MONTH TO DATE: 6,171

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  AUGUST CONTRACT: 118 NOTICE(S) FOR 11800 OZ (0.3670 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  6171 NOTICES FOR 617100 OZ  (19.29 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR AUGUST

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR NIL  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1993 for   9,965,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10,635 DOWN 275 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10,738 DOWN 178

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE  SIZED 3149 CONTRACTS FROM 227,296 UP TO 230,445 DESPITE THE 21 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

AUGUST, 0 FOR SEPT: 1737, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1737 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1737 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1737 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 8.685 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 21 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

9.975   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

 

WE HAD ATTEMPTED COVERING OF SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX YESTERDAY WITH ZERO SUCCESS..BUT WE DID HAVE SOME  SPREADING ACCUMULATION.

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER FOR SILVER.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF AUGUST:

26,240 CONTRACTS (FOR 14 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 26,240 CONTRACTS) OR 131.20 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1874 CONTRACTS OR 9.370 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  131.20 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 18.74% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1443.72   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3149, DESPITE THE 21 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1737 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC  SIZED: 4886 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1737 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 3497  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 21 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.96 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.153 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 164% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 9.975 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 5747 CONTRACTS, TO 593,610 ACCOMPANYING THE  $11.20 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING FRIDAY// /

THE SPREADING ACCUMULATION OPERATION IS NOW IN FULL SWING  ONLY FOR SILVER AS QUITE A BIT WAS ACCOMPLISHED IN THAT ENDEAVOUR TODAY. LIQUIDATION OF SPREADING CONTRACTS WILL COMMENCE AROUND THE 23RD OF AUGUST….. THE LIQUIDATION( AND ACCUMULATION) PHASE FOR COMEX OI GOLD  STOPS FOR THE AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH /

 

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3262 CONTRACTS: AUGUST 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  3262 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 593,610,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2485 CONTRACTS: 5747 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 3262 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 2485 CONTRACTS OR 248,500 OZ OR 7.729 TONNESYESTERDAY WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF $11.20 IN GOLD TRADING….AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A FAIR LOSS IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 7.729  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER.AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A FAIR LOSS IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 7.729  TONNES!!!!!! 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST : 145,789 CONTRACTS OR 14,578,900 oz OR 453.47 TONNES (14 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 10,413 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 453.47 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 453.47/3550 x 100% TONNES =12.77% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     3,964.15  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 5747 WITH THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($11.20)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 3,262 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 3,262 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 968 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

3262 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 5747 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE LOSS IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 7.729 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE DECREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE  LOSS IN PRICE OF $11.20 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  118 notice(s) filed upon for 11,800 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY:

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 5747 CONTRACTS from 227,296 UP TO 230,445 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER AND STOPPED THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS IN GOLD

OUR BANKER FRIENDS HAVE NOW STOPPED THEIR CAPITULATED AS DEMAND WAS JUST TO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 1737  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1737 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 3149  CONTRACTS TO THE 1737 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 4,886 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 26.17 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ ;AUGUST AT 9.975 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 21 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1737 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.09 POINTS OR 0.11%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 60.30 POINTS OR 0.23%   /The Nikkei closed UP 114.06 POINTS OR 0.55%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.17%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0595 /Oil UP TO 55.97 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.53 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0595 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8834 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)As promised, this certainly has got the attention of mainland China i.e. the purchase of F 16’s from the USA.  Beijing states that consequences are coming

(zerohedge)

ii)This may turn out to be a powder keg:  a Hong Kong citizen is detained in Mainland China after attending a conference in Shenzen just across the river from Hong Kong.  The individual is an employee of the British consulate

(zerohedge)

iii)Many see no future in Hong Kong, a city that is unaffordable to many.  Now the risks of Mainland China’s force is causing many to flee to Taiwan

(zerohedge)

iv) Protest leaders reject Lam’s latest olive branch after almost 2 million citizens take to the streets.   The detention of a Hong Kong citizen working in the British embassy will also be a source of concern

(zerohedge)

v)China again warns the uSA to stay out of the affairs of Hong Kong.  They warn that there will be no deal if the uSA persists in sticking their nose into the problems of Hong Kong(zerohedge)

vi)China’s new reform rate dubbed China’s Libor lowers from 4.31% to 4.25%. However pundits were expecting a bigger drop

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)GERMANY

The export king of Europe Germany is now having its problems due to slow growth in all sectors of the globe. By lowering VAT or other things will not have much help fro Germany.  Already it is the net benefiter of a lower Euro than it would have been if they were using the mark

(zerohedge)

ii)UK
Corbyn is making a mess of things as his referendum strategy portends a Boris Johnson rout at the forthcoming election:
Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

iii)ItalyIt begins…Conte resigns. The President of Italy will now call an election upon which Salvini will surely form a majority.  It is now check to Mr Draghi if he will purchase Italian bonds especially after announcing that he will undergo additional QE

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Israel/Iraq/Iran

Quite awkward:  It seems that Israel once again rocks Baghdad base with known Iranian elements inside these facilities

The base also is home to USA stealth planes

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

i)SWEDEN

This is life in Sweden:  Robberies targeting children has now hit a record high

(Paul Joseph Watson/Summit News)

ii)Michael Every is well tuned to global events and is always a must read..

(courtesy Michael Every/Rabobank)

7. OIL ISSUES

This is what fracking will do: Kansas and Oklahoma hit by 65 earthquakes in the last 7 days

(zerohedge)

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)HONG KONG GOLD HOLDERS ARE SEEKING SAFE HAVEN IN SINGAPORE

(Bloomberg/GATA)

ii)James Turk hints at a possible short squeeze in silver beginning next week as we are about to enter the September contract month

(James Turk/Kingworldnews/GATA)

iii)Kranzler correctly states that negative rates and Gresham Law’s  (bad money forces good money out of circulation) will force them into gold

(courtesy Kranzler)

iv)When was the last time you heard Templeton’s Dr Mark Mobius state to buy gold at any price?

He just did!!

(courtesy Schiff/Mark Mobius)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Unbelievable!! all sovereign debt outside of the usa (investment grade) are negative for the first time in history

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

the largest bond holder PIMCO is already dumping USA sovereign bonds as well as European bonds on fears of Helicopter Money’ being around the corner

 

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Miss Nevada has been banned from competing in the upcoming Miss America beauty contest because of her refusal to hide her support for Donald Trump
(courtesy Paul Joseph Watson/SummitNews)

b)OH!!OH!! The cellmate of Epstein begs the Judge for a transfer because of the guards threatening him

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 5,747 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 593,610 ACCOMPANYING THE LOSS OF $11.20 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED FAIR SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 3262 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR AUGUST; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 3262   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  3262 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 2485 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 3262 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST 5747 COMEX CONTRACTS THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN AND THEN WHACK THE PRICE . 

 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  2485 CONTRACTS OR 248,500 OZ OR 7.729 TONNES.

 

We are now in the  active contract month of AUGUST and here the open interest stands at 761 CONTRACTS as we LOST 845 contract.  We had 824 notices filed yesterday so we LOST 21 contracts or 2100 oz of gold that will NOT stand for delivery AS THERE APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THESE GUYS HAVE MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND WILL TRY THEIR LACK OVER THERE.

The next non active month is September and here the OI FELL by 9 contracts DOWN TO 3595.  The next active delivery month is October and here the OI FELL by 2846 contracts DOWN to 46,585.

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 118 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  11800 OZ. (0.3674 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 3149 CONTRACTS FROM 227,296 UP TO 230,445 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A 21 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY. OUR BANKER FRIENDS COULD NOT COVER ANY OF THEIR SHORTS HOWEVER THEY DID HAVE CONSIDERABLE SPREADING ACCUMULATION

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.  HERE WE HAVE 2 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 0 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..  THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 5408 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 98,612 CONTRACTS. OCTOBER RECEIVED ANOTHER 20 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 206.  NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 7894 CONTRACTS UP TO 96,539.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 237,814  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  317,414  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  AUGUST/GOLD

AUGUST 20/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
60.75 oz
Manfa
5 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

16,075.500

500 kilobars

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
118 notice(s)
 11800 OZ
(0.3670 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
643 contracts
(64300 oz)
2.000 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
6171 notices
617100 OZ
19.19 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 2 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into Brinks: 16,075.500  oz

500 kilobars

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 16,075.500 oz

 

the only gold that enters the comex is of the kilobar variety and I extremely doubt it if anybody wants kilobars over here with a fineness of only 99.5.

all kilobar entries are phonies

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i) Out of Manfra:

160.75 oz or 5 kilobars

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 160.75  oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today
FOR THE AUGUST 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 118 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 46 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6171) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  AUGUST. (761 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (118 x 100 oz per contract) equals 681,400 OZ OR 21.194 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of AUGUST

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (6171 x 100 oz)  + (761)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (118 x 100 oz )which equals 681,400 oz standing OR 21.194 TONNES in this  active delivery month of AUGUST.

We LOST 21  contracts or an additional 52900 oz will stand as these guys morphed into London based forwards as well as NEGATING a fiat bonus. THERE IS NO GOLD ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND,..

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 20.63 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 21.194  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING//

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  663,384.152 oz or  20.63 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,030,289.341 oz 249.77 tonnes

 

 

IN THE LAST 35 MONTHS 109 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
AUGUST 20 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 301,895.740 oz
CNT
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
600,213.800 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2 contracts
 10,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1993 contracts

9,965,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into CNT: 600,213.800 oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  600,213.800  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of Delaware:  1986.800 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 600,013.070 oz

iii) Out of Loomis:  39,912.592 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 641,912.462  oz

 

we had 0 adjustment :

 

 

total dealer silver:  92/830 million

total dealer + customer silver:  311.983 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the AUGUST 2019. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR NIL oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1993 x 5,000 oz = 9,965,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST. (2) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the AUGUST/2019 contract month: 1993 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (2)- number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 9,975,000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month.  

 

WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS BUT ARE RESOLUTE LONGS STANDING FOR SILVER DELIVERY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the AUGUST, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  93,368 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 107,652 CONTRACTS..(we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation)

 

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 107,652 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 538 million  OZ 76.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -0.50% ((AUGUST 16/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.04% to NAV (AUGUST 16/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -/50%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.79 TRADING 14.28/DISCOUNT 3.45

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

AUGUST 20//WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WE GOT BACK 7.63 TONNES OUT OF 11.11 TONNES LOST ON WEDNESDAY( A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

 

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY///INVENTORY RISES TO 824.89 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.50: A HUGE INVENTORY WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD LEAVES THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 818.14 TONNES

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00: A MASSIVE  DEPOSIT OF 11.44 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 814.62

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.55 TODAY: A BIG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.81 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.18 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY: A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.37 TONNES

JULY 16: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 15: WITH GOLD UP $1.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $5.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 11.WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.65 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 6.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.54 TONNES

JULY 9/WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS, A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES WHICH WAS USED IN THE FUTILE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER THIS MORNING//INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.08 TONNES

JULY 8/ WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY FALLS TO 796.97 TONNES

JULY 5TH/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INV RESTS AT 798.44 TONNES

JULY 3// WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  798.44

 

JULY 2. WITH GOLD UP $18.90 A HUGE “PAPER” DEPOSIT OF 6.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

JULY 1: WITH GOLD DOWN $24.70 A HUGE “PAPER GOLD” WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 794.04 TONNES

 

 

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AUGUST 20/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 843/41 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 647 TRADING DAYS: 91.99 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 547- TRADING DAYS: A NET 74.88 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

AUGUST 20.WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 16/: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 15/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/2019: WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 468000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 26.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:  A HUGE 1.03 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER LEAVES THE SLV/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 357.183 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25.2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY REST AT 358.213 MILLION OZ

JULY 24…A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A GAIN OF 1.685 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.383 MILLION OZ

JULY 23/2019: WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.221 MILLION PAPER OZ ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 357.698 MILLION OZ////

JULY 22.2019/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.939 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.919 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: ANOTHER MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.276 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 346.980 MILLION OZ

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.668 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.704 MILLION OZ//

JULY 17: WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 29 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.518 MILLION OZ/INTO THE SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.036 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16: WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY: 15  WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ//

JULY 9/WITH SILVER UP A SMALL 7 CENTS A GIGANTIC INVENTORY GAIN OF 4.026 MILLION OZ/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.518 MILLION OZ AND NOW IT SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR THAT THE SLV ( AND GLD ARE FRAUDS)

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328,492 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS WE STRANGELY HAD A HUGE INVENTORY GAIN OF 2,234 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.492 MILLION OZ

JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS A HUGE INCREASE IN INVENTORY..INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.330 MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 936,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 323.330 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 19/2019:

 

Inventory 380.154 MILLION OZ

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.02/ and libor 6 month duration 2.03

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .01

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.89%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.95

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.06

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

HONG KONG GOLD HOLDERS ARE SEEKING SAFE HAVEN IN SINGAPORE

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Hong Kong turmoil sends gold investors to seek haven in Singapore

 Section: 

By Ranjeetha Pakiam
Bloomberg News
Monday, August 19, 2019

Escalating political turmoil in Hong Kong is spooking some gold investors.

J. Rotbart & Co., which helps customers buy, store, and transport precious metals, says it has seen an increase in demand for gold storage in Singapore from new clients — even when they’re based in Hong Kong or mainland China. In the last 10 weeks, the breakdown of requests has skewed to around 75% for Singapore and 10% for Hong Kong, compared with a split of about 50-35 previously, said Joshua Rotbart, who runs the bullion house, which services high net-worth individuals from Hong Kong.

…Protests that started in early June against a bill easing extraditions to the mainland have morphed into a broader stand against China’s rule over the financial hub.

Demonstrators forced the city’s international airport to shut last week, and fears have grown that Chinese troops from the People’s Liberation Army may be deployed to restore order, a move that could risk an international backlash and irreparable harm to the city’s economy. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-19/hong-kong-unrest-send…

 end

James Turk hints at a possible short squeeze in silver beginning next week as we are about to enter the September contract month

(James Turk/Kingworldnews/GATA)

Silver options hint at squeeze next week, Turk tells KWN

 Section: 

6:55p ET Monday, August 19, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk, in an interview with King World News today, says options on silver are hinting at the possibility of a short squeeze next week. The interview is excerpted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/james-turk-we-may-see-a-squeeze-higher-in-the-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Kranzler correctly states that negative rates and Gresham Law’s  (bad money forces good money out of circulation) will force them into gold

(courtesy Kranzler)

Dave Kranzler: Negative rates, Gresham’s Law, and a parabolic move in gold

 Section: 

7:10p ET Monday, August 19, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

As central banks devalue their currencies and enforce negative interest rates by imposing penalties on money held in bank accounts, Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics writes today, people eventually will be compelled to flee to gold and silver held outside the banking system. Since people are likely to realize rather suddenly the inevitable consequences of central bank money-destruction policy, Kranzler writes, metals prices could go parabolic.

Kranzler’s analysis is headlined “Negative Rates, Gresham’s Law, and a Parabolic Move in Gold” and it’s posted at IRD here:

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/negative-rates-greshams-law-and-a-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

and then this missive:

Dave from Denver with some input for us…

I’m guessing the EFP’s add stress to the London market. What’s interesting is that, based on the premium to spot gold on the SGE, Brimelow believes and I agree that the Chinese Govt is restricting imports into China for some reason. The premium is a product of buy demand that exceeds supply.

ALTERNATIVELY, I believe the PBoC could be taking most of the gold that goes into the country right now. The PBoC is the only entity that is not required by law to source its gold from the SGE. If most of the imported gold going into China is going to the PBoC and by-passing the SGE, it would also result in a high premium. The reason I think this is a possibility is because I do not believe gold would be doing what it’s doing without massive Chinese demand and we know importation into India has been choked off by the increase in the import tax.

I am confident GLD and SLV are not buying a full allocation of actual physical gold/silver with all the cash flooding into those ETFs. I’m highly confident of that I bet James Turk would agree.

end

 

iii) Other physical stories:

When was the last time you heard Templeton’s Dr Mark Mobius state to buy gold at any price?

He just did!!

(courtesy Schiff/Mark Mobius)

Mark Mobius: Buy Gold At Any Price

Via SchiffGold.com,

Last week we reported that the mainstream is turning bullish on gold, and in recent months, a number of prominent investors including Paul Tudor JonesThomas Kaplan and David Roche have all talked up the yellow metal. This week, we have another well-known veteran investor saying buy gold.

During an interview with Bloomberg, Mark Mobius said that at this point investors should buy gold “at any level.”

I think gold long-term prospect is up, up, and up.”

Why is Mobius bullish on gold? As he put it, central banks are going to be printing lots of money in the near future.

The reason why I say that is the money supply is up, up, and up. You know, with the efforts by these central banks to lower interest rates they’re going to be printing like crazy.

The Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time in over a decade last month. Powell tried to downplay the move, insisting it wasn’t the beginning of a long rate-cutting cycle. Peter Schiff said that’s true – only because it won’t take long to get to zero.

[Jerome Powell] is trying to pretend it’s because of concerns about the overseas economy. It is really the US economy that is driving the Fed. That’s why this is just the first step on the road back to zero. And you know, it was a mistake when the Fed went back to zero the last time; it’s going to be an even bigger mistake when they do it next time. And they’re also going to go back to quantitative easing. You know, they announced yesterday the end of quantitative tightening, but the next step is to go back to QE, and QE 4 is going to be bigger than QE 1, 2 and 3 combined.”

The Fed isn’t alone on the path toward more monetary stimulus. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Finnish central bank governor Olli Rehn raised the prospect of new easing measures from the European Central Bank. He said, “It’s important that we come up with a significant and impactful policy package in September. When you’re working with financial markets, it’s often better to overshoot than undershoot, and better to have a very strong package of policy measures than to tinker.”

During the Bloomberg interview, Mobius also addressed the proliferation of cryptocurrencies. He said he believes the rise of bitcoin and other cryptos will actually be good for gold.

You have all these currencies, new currencies coming into play. I call them ‘psycho currencies,’ because it’s a matter of faith whether you believe in Bitcoin or any of the other cyber-currencies. I think with the rise of that, there’s going to be a demand for real, hard assets, and that includes gold because gold can play a role not only as an asset but also as a currency.”

Mobius said investors should have at least 10% of their portfolio in gold.

“I’m talking about physical gold,” he said.

Peter Schiff has been advising this for a long time. Currently, only about 1% of the world’s investable capital is in gold.  Peter has said it would be wise to make the move sooner rather than later.

If the idea goes mainstream, and all investors go to a 10% gold allocation, the price will skyrocket.  Investors need to move quickly to get ahead of the crowd.”

end

Another J.PMorgan traders pleads guilty to gold manipulation and he faces up to 11 years in jail.  However in all probability he will face a fine and agree not to engage in manipulation again

(zerohedge)

 

JPMorgan Spoofer Pleads Guilty To Gold Manipulation, Faces 11 Years In Jail

There was a time when the merest mention of gold manipulation in “reputable” media was enough to have one branded a perpetual conspiracy theorist with a tinfoil farm out back. That was roughly coincident with a time when Libor, FX, mortgage, and bond market manipulation was also considered unthinkable, when High Frequency Traders were believed to “provide liquidity”, when the stock market was said to not be manipulated by the Fed, and when the ever-confused media, always eager to take “complicated” financial concepts at the face value set by a self-serving establishment, never dared to question anything.

All that changed last November when a former JPMorgan precious-metals trader admitted he engaged in a six-year spoofing scheme that defrauded investors in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts. John Edmonds, then 36, pled guilty under seal in the District of Connecticut to commodities fraud, conspiracy to commit wire fraud, commodities price manipulation, and spoofing. As FBI Assistant Director in Charge Sweeney explained that “with his guilty plea, Edmonds admitted he intended to introduce materially false and misleading information into the commodities markets.”

“The Criminal Division is committed to prosecuting those who undermine the investing public’s trust in the integrity of our commodities markets through spoofing or any other illegal conduct.”

“By conspiring with his trading partners to place spoof orders, he blatantly attempted to profit off of an unfair market that he helped create.  The FBI will continue to work with our partners to insure financial markets remain a level playing field for all investors.”

Then, one month ago, Corey Flaum, who worked as a trader at Bear Stearns and Bank of Nova Scotia, also admitted to precious metals manipulation, saying he placed thousands of bogus orders for futures contracts over a nine-year period.

Now it’s #3.

Christiaan Trunz, another former JPMorgan metals trader, pleaded guilty on Tuesday to conspiracy and to manipulating prices in the precious-metals market as part of the U.S. government’s continuing crackdown on bogus spoofing trades.

Trunz, 34, admitted during a hearing in federal court in Brooklyn, New York, that he also used spoofing to manipulate precious metal prices and to extract a profit while he worked at Bear Stearns and at JPMorgan between 2007 to 2016. He pleaded guilty to in connection with a specific spoofing incident in June 2016.

While Trunz could face a maximum prison term of as long as 135 months when U.S. District Judge Pamela Chen sentences him in February, he will likely get away with a fine and a warning never to rig the precious metals market again.

As we discussed last November, this is how Edmonds and his fellow precious metals traders at the Bank – one of whom would turn out to be Trunz – spoofed the market :

This trading strategy was admittedly intended to inject materially false and misleading liquidity and price information into the precious metals futures contracts markets by placing the Spoof Orders in order to deceive other market participants about the existence of supply and demand.

The Spoof Orders were designed to artificially move the price of precious metals futures contracts in a direction that was favorable to Edmonds and his co-conspirators at the Bank, to the detriment of other market participants. 

In pleading guilty, Edmonds admitted that he learned this deceptive trading strategy from more senior traders at the Bank, and he personally deployed this strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Justice describes one such ‘spoof’ that occurred on October 12, 2012

“Edmonds knowingly executed the scheme and artifice by transmitting and causing to be transmitted to a CME Group server an offer to sell approximately 402 silver futures contracts (“Spoof Order”), with the intent, at the time the offer was entered, to cancel the offer before it could be executed, which fraudulently represented the state of the market, so that Edmonds could purchase approximately 6 silver futures contracts at a below-market price.

Edmond’s ‘Spoof Order’ caused other market participants to react and trade at prices, quantities, and times at which they otherwise would not have traded, but for EDMONDS’s Spoof Order.”

 

It’s not like ‘manipulation’ ever stopped however – one glance at the ‘odd’ price action almost every day around the time of the London Fixmakes it clear, it is anything but a ‘normal’ market:

We’ll give  U.S. Attorney Durham the last word (bearing the chart above in mind):

“The investigation of deceptive trading practices by others involved in this scheme is ongoing.”

The DoJ ends its statement with the following: “Individuals who believe that they may be a victim in these cases should visit the Fraud Section’s Victim Witness website for more information. “

END

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0595/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0723   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 3.09 POINTS OR 0.11%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 60.30 POINTS OR 0.23%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 114.06 POINTS OR 0.55%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED EXCEPT LONDON/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.38/Euro FALLS TO 1.1079

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.23/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106/35/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 55.97 and Brent: 59.53

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.69%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.47% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.11%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.16: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.01

3k Gold at $1506.50 silver at: 17.03   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 14/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.80

3m oil into the 55 dollar handle for WTI and 59 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.35 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9797 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0854 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.69%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.57% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.04%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7259..

Futures Tread Water As Attention Turns To Jackson Hole

One day after a torrid relief rally, equity futures treaded water in Tuesday’s muted session, as investors paused after a three-day run that was driven by hopes that major economies would engage in fiscal stimulus to counter a slowing global economy, and after what appeared to be an attempt by Hong Kong leader Carrier Lam to defuse the tense situation with a promise to immediately establish a platform for dialogue, investigate complaints against police and institute a wide-ranging fact-finding study into the demonstrations. Treasuries climbed and the Bloomberg dollar index traded near the year’s high.

 

After a volatile start to the month on worsening U.S.-China trade tensions, stock indexes rebounded sharply, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq erasing last week’s losses on signs Germany and China are considering stimulus, while a since denied WaPo report late on Monday said White House officials are discussing the possibility of a temporary payroll tax cut in an effort to boost the economy.

Asian stocks traded mixed as the region enjoyed a mild tailwind after the strong performance in US where stimulus hopes as well as trade optimism underpinned the S&P 500 and DJIA to a 3rd consecutive win streak. ASX 200 (+1.2%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) gained with outperformance in Australia fueled by the energy sector after recent gains in oil prices and with earnings heavily in focus including BHP, while advances in Tokyo were limited by an uneventful currency and despite reports Japan permitted additional exports of high-tech material to South Korea. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) traded indecisively as participants digested the mixed signals from the PBoC which conducted reverse repos but resulted to a net daily drain, and set its Loan Prime Rate at 4.25% which was lower than the previous 1yr LPR of 4.31%, as well as the Lending Rate of 4.35%, although not as low as some had anticipated

 

European stocks give up earlier gains as banks, real estate stocks dropped. The Stoxx 600 Index was 0.1% lower, giving up advance of as much as 0.4% as the regional benchmark traded in line with U.S. equity futures. Utilities were the worst-performing European sector, down 1.1%; real estate -1%, banks -0.7%; Among gainers, healthcare is up 0.6%, food and beverages +0.4%

In the US, index futures struggled for traction after the underlying benchmarks rose on Monday, when the U.S. commerce secretary said the nation will delay restrictions on some operations of China’s Huawei Technologies. The decision was seen as encouraging for the long-awaited trade pact between the world’s two largest economies. Still, the Chinese company said the temporary relief doesn’t change the fact that it’s been treated “unjustly.”

Retailers Home Depot and Kohl’s both missed estimates for their quarterly sales on Tuesday. U.S.-listed shares of Baidu jumped 9.9% after the Chinese internet search giant reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings.

All eyes this week will be on Wednesday’s release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting and Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole central bankers’ conference. Even as Powell classified last month’s interest rate cut as a “mid-cycle” policy adjustment, traders are currently fully pricing in another rate cut in September.  Powell’s remarks will be closely monitored for hints if more policy easing is in store, especially as the U.S.-China trade war seems far from resolved and growing fears of recession, signaled by the inversion of the U.S. yield curve last week.

“Our thesis maintains that over the next six months equity markets should do better, really mainly underpinned by the lower interest rates around the world,” Jun Bei Liu, a portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners in Sydney, told Bloomberg TV. “Of course, there’s a few issues that arise. One is that the valuations seem incredibly high. And the trade conflict is another uncertainty at this point.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, will speak with business leaders this week amid concerns about the rising odds for a recession, the trade war and whipsawing markets.

In geopolitical news, US and South Korea will wrap up week-long military exercises as scheduled, while North Korea condemned South Korea for joint military drills and warned of consequences. Elsewhere, President Trump spoke to India PM Modi and Pakistan PM Khan regarding trade, strategic partnerships and for the countries to work towards reducing tensions in Kashmir, while he suggested the situation is tough, but they had good conversations.

Additionally, the US conveyed its strong position to Greek government regarding Iranian oil tanker it alleged is carrying illicit oil to Syria, while US warned any effort to assist the tanker could be viewed as material support to a US-designated terrorist organization.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index pared Asia-session losses as corporates and algorithms sold off the euro and sterling following the London market open. Haven currencies the yen and Swiss franc led gains versus the dollar in the G-10 but moves were in narrow ranges; Australia’s dollar rose against most of its major peers.

U.S. Treasuries and most euro-area bonds gained after the drop in the previous session while Italian notes slipped before Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte addresses Parliament about the country’s political crisis

In commodities, oil futures were steady while gold rose back over $1500.

Looking at the day ahead, eyes will be on Italy with PM Conte due to address the Senate, possibly leading to a confidence vote. There are no releases due in the US while the only Fedspeak scheduled is from Daly at 9.30pm BST and Quarles at 11pm BST. Home Depot, Medtronic, and TJX are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,926.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.09% to 374.21
  • MXAP up 0.5% to 152.95
  • MXAPJ up 0.4% to 495.66
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 20,677.22
  • Topix up 0.8% to 1,506.77
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 26,231.54
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.1% to 2,880.00
  • Sensex up 0.1% to 37,439.88
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.2% to 6,544.96
  • Kospi up 1.1% to 1,960.25
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.7 bps to -0.675%
  • Euro down 0.02% to $1.1076
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 4.2 bps to 1.088%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 0.119%
  • Brent futures up 0.3% to $59.89/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,501.50
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 98.36

Top Headlines

  • China’s new one-year reference rate for bank loans will start at 4.25%, according to a statement from the central bank on Tuesday. That compares to the 4.24% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 11 traders and analysts. The previous loan prime rate was 4.31%, while the one-year benchmark lending rate is 4.35%. China will set the LPR on the 20th day of every month
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren continued to push back against further interest-rate cuts by the central bank, arguing he’s not convinced that slowing trade and global growth will significantly dent the U.S. economy. President Trump urges Fed cut of 100 basis points, cites world economy
  • The White House dismissed the idea that the administration is looking to cut payroll taxes as a way to bolster consumer spending, as economic indicators increasingly point to a potential downturn.
  • In a letter to European Council President Donald Tusk, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he wants to replace the so-called backstop provision in the divorce agreement with a “legally binding commitment” not to build infrastructure or carry out checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland — the U.K.’s new frontier with the EU — as long as the bloc promises the same.
  • Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini dangled the prospect of tax cuts and a boost in government spending for Italians in a final push to force new elections that could secure him the premiership
  • Europe has had enough of Trump’s tirades from trade to security. When Emmanuel Macron welcomes Donald Trump to the Group of Seven summit in France, loosening Europe’s dependence on the U.S. will be on his mind
  • The U.K. said it was “extremely concerned” by reports that a Hong Kong consulate worker was detained during a recent trip to mainland China, a case that threatens to add to strains between Beijing and London
  • Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam pledged to immediately establish a platform for dialogue, investigate complaints against police and institute a wide-ranging fact- finding study into the demonstrationsAustralia’s central bank is ready to cut interest-rates further if a buildup of evidence suggests this would boost the economy, and said it reviewed global experience with unconventional steps in minutes to its Aug. meeting
  • China is considering allowing provincial governments to issue more bonds for infrastructure investment, people familiar with the matter said, a move that would boost government stimulus as the economy continues to decelerate

Asian equity markets traded mixed as the region benefitted somewhat from the mild tailwind after the strong performance in US where stimulus hopes as well as trade optimism underpinned the S&P 500 and DJIA to a 3rd consecutive win streak. ASX 200 (+1.2%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) gained with outperformance in Australia fuelled by the energy sector after recent gains in oil prices and with earnings heavily in focus including BHP, while advances in Tokyo were limited by an uneventful currency and despite reports Japan permitted additional exports of high-tech material to South Korea. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) traded indecisively as participants digested the mixed signals from the PBoC which conducted reverse repos but resulted to a net daily drain, and set its Loan Prime Rate at 4.25% which was lower than the previous 1yr LPR of 4.31%, as well as the Lending Rate of 4.35%, although not as low as some had anticipated. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued amid the mostly positive overnight risk tone and following mixed results at the 20yr auction which showed weaker demand amid higher accepted prices.

Top Asian News

  • Carl Huttenlocher’s Myriad Asset Plans to Open Singapore Office
  • Hong Kong Rates May Spike as Funds Depart, Morgan Stanley Says
  • Thailand’s Cabinet Approves Stimulus Package of About 316b Baht
  • Fortis CEO Plans Cost Cuts of 20% to Nurse It Back to Health

This morning sees mixed trade in major European stocks [Eurostoxx 50 Unch] as sentiment is tentative ahead of this week’s events in the form of FOMC/ECB minutes and Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. Sectors are also mixed with no clear standouts, although the mining sector is resilient despite earnings from mining giant BHP (-0.7%) which missed on underlying net and warned of the impact from rising protectionism on the mining sector. In terms of individual movers, Pandora (+5.2%) rose to the top of the Stoxx 600 amid earnings in which the Co. initiated a wholesale inventory buyback program for Q3. Meanwhile, Casino (+4.0%) shares follow closely after the Board approved new French asset arbitrations for a target amount of EUR 2bln by the end of the first quarter in 2021. On the flip side, Royal Mail (-5.3%) fell to the foot of the pan-European index after the Communication Workers Union stated that a deal which included pay rises and new pension proposals is under threat from the Co’s management. Finally, Bayer (BAYN GY) shares saw modest upside amid reports that the Co. is to sell its animal health business unit to Elanco for USD 7.6bln, divestment is expected to be closed in mid-2020.

Top European News

  • UBS’s Christine Novakovic Is Promoted to CEO of European Unit
  • Danske Bank Does Away With Job Titles as New CEO Makes His Mark
  • Polish Government Hit by Hate-Campaign Allegations Before Polls
  • German Real Estate Stocks Decline After Court Backs Rent Freeze

In FX, the Aussie and Pound at opposite ends of the G10 ranks, as Aud/Usd is bolstered between 0.6755-95 in wake of latest RBA minutes and a more balanced assessment of the economic situation after recent rate cuts and fiscal support via tax rebates that alongside stabilisation in the housing market should support consumption after firmer GDP growth in Q2. Conversely, Cable has lost grip of the 1.2100 handle that coincided with 200 HMA support and extended losses when stops were tripped through the 10 DMA (1.2099) to a low of 1.2084 amidst ongoing no deal Brexit worries following UK PM Johnson’s letter to EU’s Tusk stipulating that withdrawal negotiations are contingent on removing the Irish border proposal.

  • USD – It remains incremental and partly due to weakness elsewhere, but the DXY has inched closer to early August highs ahead of 98.500, at 98.425 vs 98.448, with perhaps some independent impetus coming via comments from Fed’s Rosengren underscoring his decision to vote against July’s FOMC rate cut. On that note, Daly and Quarles are on today’s docket as the clock ticks down to Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and then Jackson Hole that could be a platform for providing fresh policy guidance from the Fed and other global Central Banks.
  • JPY/CHF – The Yen and Franc have both regained an element of safe-haven allure as the recent/nascent recovery in risk sentiment stalls or falters. Usd/Jpy is drifting back below 106.50 and Usd/Chf is pivoting 0.9800, while Eur/Chf has retreated towards 1.0850 in the run up to Italian PM Conte’s Senate speech at 14.00BST that will seal the fate of Rome’s coalition Government.
  • NZD/EUR/CAD – All narrowly mixed against the Greenback, with the Kiwi still lagging and slipping nearer 0.6400, while Aud/Nzd is inching higher above 1.0550 on diverging RBA/RBNZ near term policy outlooks. Elsewhere, the single currency is slipping further below 1.1100 amidst reports or corporate offers and eyeing short term chart support at 1.1065 before 1.1050 and the 1.1027 ytd base, while the Loonie is holding within a tight range in the low 1.3300 area and just ahead of underlying bids said to be sitting from 1.3340-50, with Canadian manufacturing sales due later.
  • EM – Turkish Lira losses are stacking up after latest CBRT efforts to promote bank lending via reserve ratio enticements linked to loan quotas, and with the technical landscape turning increasingly bearish as Usd/Try clears more key levels. So far, the 50 DMA has been surpassed on the way to circa 5.7500 exposing a Fib just shy of 5.7550 and then 5.7681 that constitutes a lower high from late July.
  • RBA Minutes from August 6th meeting stated the board would consider further policy easing if needed and that it is reasonable to expect extended period of low rates, while it added risks to economy tilted to the downside, there are few signs of inflationary pressures emerging and noted downside risks to CPI components. However, the minutes also stated the RBA saw firmer GDP growth in Q2 and outlook for consumption is more balanced than for some time, while it noted consumption was helped by tax rebates and there was stabilization in housing markets. (Newswires)

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures are posting modest gains in early EU trade with little in the way of a catalyst thus far to influence price action ahead of this week’s inventory data, FOMC/ECB minutes and Fed Chair Powell’s speech. The former reclaimed the 56/bbl handle during Asia-Pac hours and has since been edging towards 56.50/bbl. Meanwhile, the latter straddles around the 60/bbl mark after having found a base at 59.55/bbl overnight. Looking ahead (aside from macro-newsflow), focus will be on the API crude stocks release which is expected to show a headline crude drawdown of 1.9mln barrels. Elsewhere, gold prices are marginally firmer and back around the USD 1500/oz mark amid potential dip-buying ahead of this week’s key risk events; meanwhile, IMF data showed that central banks continued to buy gold in July despite the yellow metal hitting 6yr highs. Copper prices are in the red today and back below the 2.6/lb level, albeit price action is relatively contained. Finally, Dalian iron ore futures declined for a fourth consecutive session as supply concerns continued to ease amid rising iron ore exports from Australia and Brazil.

US Event Calendar

  • 4:30pm: Fed’s Daly Takes Part Quora session online
  • 6pm: Fed’s Quarles Discusses Community Development

DB’s Craig Nicol concludes the overnight wrap

With the main risk events this week still a few days away, including the Jackson Hole on Friday and PMIs on Thursday, risk assets have awoken from the weekend in a much better mood compared to the last two Mondays. Indeed the cumulative percentage move of the other two Mondays in August prior to yesterday was -4.18% so yesterday was a welcome break.

Last night the S&P 500 ended +1.21% which means it’s now roughly an equal distance apart from the intraday post Trump trade tweet lows of early August and the highs prior to the tweet at the end of last month. It’s also on a three-day winning run and believe it or not, has actually risen for seven of the last ten days even if it might not feel like it. The NASDAQ and DOW also closed +1.35% and +0.96% respectively yesterday as cyclical sectors staged a comeback though every industry group ended the session higher. In sympathy, rates sold off although that was also perhaps partly a reflection of the fiscal stimulus talk in Germany – despite it not being a new story – and the reports late Friday that the US Treasury Department was looking to “refresh its understanding of market appetite” for super-long dated issuance, perhaps up to 100 years. The end result was 10y Treasuries closing +5.2bps higher at 1.607%, though 2-year yields sold off more steeply, rising +6.8bps to 1.546%. That took the 2s10s curve down -1.4bps to 5.9bps, even though it had touched 10.6bps intraday at one stage. Bunds also rose +3.7bps which put them back at the lofty heights of -0.652%. Amazingly that is only the fourth time in the last twenty-four sessions that Bund yields have risen.

Anyway, the only real news that markets had to feed off was the slew of positive trade (and economy) comments from the US administration over the weekend and then Commerce Secretary Ross following up with the announcement that the US will ease sanctions on Huawei for another 90 days. To be fair that doesn’t make the US position on Huawei any clearer and it still remains to be seen if President Trump will use the company as trade leverage or instead completely disengage. For now, the decision has been punted another 90 days until mid-November.

As for Asia overnight, moves have been fairly muted with the Hang Seng (+0.01%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.07%) in particular virtually little changed. The Nikkei (+0.52%) and Kospi (+0.61%) have advanced a bit more while in FX, all G10 currencies are making advances this morning (range c. +0.1% to +0.2%) while the onshore Chinese yuan is trading down -0.24% at 7.0679. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.11%. Treasuries are also a little stronger following the story in the Washington Post that the White House had denied that it was considering payroll taxes cuts as a way of boosting consumer spending.

In other news, Italy’s FTSE MIB rallied +1.93% yesterday which compared to a +1.14% gain for the broader STOXX 600. BTPs (+4.6bps) sold off a similar amount to Bunds with the moves coming before PM Conte is due to testify in front of the Senate today. The latest signals from the Five Star Movement have indicated that they will try to prevent Conte from losing a no-confidence vote, and several prominent members of the opposition Democrats, including two former prime ministers, said that their party should join Five Star in a new government. It will likely be a close vote if the Senate ends up deciding on the no confidence measure today.

In other news, the only data out yesterday came in Europe where the final July core CPI reading for the Euro Area was confirmed at +0.9% yoy and unchanged versus the flash. A slight downward revision to the headline however (-0.5% mom from -0.4%) meant that the annual reading slipped back to +1.0% yoy which puts it at the lowest since November 2016. There wasn’t any data from Germany, but there was some attention paid to the Bundesbank’s monthly report which warned that there is a risk of recession next quarter. The national central bank cited weak industrial activity as a key factor contributing to the risk of a second quarterly contraction. Our economists have a similarly bearish view, as highlighted in their latest report available here .

As for the US, there wasn’t any data, though Boston Fed President Rosengren did give somewhat hawkish comments. He said that he “wants to see evidence we are going into something that is more than a slowdown” before he will support additional easing. Recall that he dissented against the rate cut in July. He downplayed overseas headwinds, saying that “just because other countries are weak, if we’re strong, it doesn’t necessarily mean we should be easing as well.” The market currently fully prices a rate cut at the September meeting, plus around a 22% chance for a 50bps cut instead. Rosengren’s comments highlighted how hard it will be to generate a consensus for the more expansive easing option.

Finally, it’s worth noting another round of provocative tweets from President Trump, who criticized “the horrendous lack of vision by Jay Powell and the Fed.” He went on to say that “the Fed Rate, over a fairly short period of time, should be reduced by at least 100 basis points, with perhaps some quantitative easing as well.” Markets did not really respond to the remarks.

To the day ahead now, where plenty of eyes will be on Italy with PM Conte due to address the Senate, possibly leading to a confidence vote. As for data, this morning includes July PPI data in Germany, June construction output data for the Euro Area and the August CBI survey data in the UK. There are no releases due in the US while the only Fedspeak scheduled is from Daly at 9.30pm BST and Quarles at 11pm BST.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.09 POINTS OR 0.11%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 60.30 POINTS OR 0.23%   /The Nikkei closed UP 114.06 POINTS OR 0.55%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.17%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0595 /Oil UP TO 55.97 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.53 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0595 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8834 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

As promised, this certainly has got the attention of mainland China i.e. the purchase of F 16’s from the USA.  Beijing states that consequences are coming

(zerohedge)

 

“It’s $8 Billion, That’s A Lot Of Jobs”: Trump OKs F16 Taiwan Deal; Beijing Says “Consequences” Coming

Beijing will take “countermeasures” and impose serious “consequences” on Washington for its fast-moving deal to sell 66 F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan after President Trump approved the $8 billion deal this weekend.

“The US has to bear all the consequences triggered by the sale,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said on Monday. “China will take necessary measures to defend its self-interest based on the development of the situation.”

 

Image source: Lockheed Martin

Geng indicated further Chinese officials have lodged multiple formal protests with the US over its weapons sales to Taiwan, which Beijing asserts historic claims over.

While the statement didn’t give details as to what those “consequences” would be, Chinese rhetoric has in the recent past gone so far as to threaten war, and Beijing has backed this threat with frequent war games in the waters around Taiwan.

On Sunday Trump told reporters that he approved the sale, set to be ratified by a supportive Senate.

“It’s US$8 billion. It’s a lot of money. That’s a lot of jobs. And we know they’re going to use these F-16s responsibly,” he said.

The last US transfer of F-16s to Taiwan was based on a deal all the way back in 1992. The Obama administration had since rejected repeat requests by Taipei for more, only offering to upgrade the ageing fleet.

The new variant of the F-16, the Viper, is expected to hold up better in the event of a mainland China attack, with a statement from the Taiwan presidential office saying the new jets would ensure “safeguarding peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and in the region.”

end

This may turn out to be a powder keg:  a Hong Kong citizen is detained in Mainland China after attending a conference in Shenzen just across the river from Hong Kong.  The individual is an employee of the British consulate

(zerohedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY

The export king of Europe Germany is now having its problems due to slow growth in all sectors of the globe. By lowering VAT or other things will not have much help fro Germany.  Already it is the net benefiter of a lower Euro than it would have been if they were using the mark

(zerohedge)

Why A Typical Keynesian Stimulus Package Won’t Help Germany

Today, we show you another ugly chart about the German economy. Last week, Destatis confirmed that the economy shrank by 0.1% QoQ in the second quarter and, as Saxobank’s Christopher Cembik points out, based on the very weak start to Q3, especially the latest ZEW, the risk of falling into recession is quite elevated this year.

On the export front, since Q3 2018, Germany has faced the combination of three negative waves:

  1. credit crunch in Turkey,
  2. risks related to Brexit and,
  3. more importantly, slowdown in China that affects directly the key local car market.

After a short-lived rebound in June, China’s imports from Germany has again entered in negative territory in July.

 

Source: Saxobank

We use the 3-month moving average to track imports in order to avoid too much short-term volatility. China’s imports from Germany are down 0.4% YoY last month.

Given the most up-to-date data about the car sector, China’s economy and global trade, there is no reason at that point to expect a rebound that could help the German economy. What is even more worrying is that Germany’s domestic demand, which has been quite resilient over the past quarters, starts to be negatively impacted by the industrial slump.

We expect in coming weeks a very heated debate over fiscal stimulus in Germany.

Financial conditions are very accommodative – Germany’s yield curve is at the flattest level since the financial crisis – but solutions to restart growth engine will be trickier to find than in 2008 as the country’s slowdown is also deeply linked to structural challenges.

Thus, a typical Keynesian stimulus package, based on temporary VAT reduction along with other tax exemptions, will only be able to bring short-term relief. It won’t be enough to tackle lack of digitization, infrastructure and increase in the long-run growth potential. A long-term strategy that may include green investments is needed for the German economic model to revive.

END
UK
Corbyn is making a mess of things as his referendum strategy portends a Boris Johnson rout at the forthcoming election:
Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Corbyn’s Laughable Referendum Strategy Portends A Johnson Blowout Election Win

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Jeremy Corbyn wants to replace Boris Johnson as Prime Minister but his election strategy makes no sense.

Strange Election Strategy

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn announced his election strategy today.

He seeks a referendum on Brexit while having no official position on the outcome of the referendum.

The Guardian reports Labour May Stay Neutral if Referendum is Between its Brexit Deal or Remain

The Labour leader was clear that the party would campaign to remain against a no-deal Brexit, as he pledged to do everything possible to prevent crashing out on 31 October.

But when asked if the party would stay neutral given a choice between a deal negotiated by Labour and remaining in the EU, Corbyn did not say which side the party would support.

“In a general election, we will put forward the opportunity for people in this country to have the final say,” he said on Monday.

No Official Position on His Own Negotiated Deal

How can that possibly make any sense?

But wait, it’s even more convoluted.

Shadow Chancellor Supports Remain

Labour Shadow [opposition] Chancellor John McDonnell officially supports remain.

Andrew Neil

@afneil

Shadow Chancellor J McDonnell says he would campaign to Remain in the EU if Labour negotiated a new Brexit deal and put it to a referendum. Not clear if that’s Mr Corbyn’s position. If it is, what would be point of negotiating new deal you would then oppose. Why would EU bother?

Convoluted Strategy Synopsis

  1. Corbyn has no position other than to hold a referendum asking people to decide between allowing him to negotiate a deal and remaining in the EU.
  2. Apparently there will be no choice offered for no deal. Clearly his proposal does not provide the “opportunity for people in this country to have the final say”.
  3. The shadow chancellor officially supports remain thus widening a rift between various Labour factions.

Everything Possible to Stop Hard Brexit? Not Quite

Meanwhile, Corbyn pledges to do “everything possible to prevent crashing out on 31 October”

Well, no, not everything.

On August 15, I noted Corbyn Seeks to Stop Brexit Via “Make Me Temporary PM” Pretty Please Offer.

Corbyn appointed himself as the Brexit Savior via volunteering to become a caretaker PM. Even some Tories agreed to consider the idea.

Corbyn’s scheme blew up precisely one day later as noted in Checkmate! Corbyn’s Please Make Me “Temporary PM” Scheme Fails Already.

The Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson refused to go along and Tories quickly distanced themselves from the effort.

Swinson Rules Out Corbyn

The Guardian Live Blog quoted Corbyn again today regarding “everything to stop a hard Brexit.

I am the leader of the opposition, the leader of the Labour party. All the constitutional precedents are, when a government collapses, it’s the leader of the opposition that takes over.

There seems to be an awful lot of very imaginative what iffery in the press at the present time. We will put a motion of no confidence in the government. We will do everything we can to stop a no deal Brexit.

Everything We Can (Except That)

  1. Corbyn will do “everything we can to stop no deal” except back some other candidate as temporary PM.
  2. The Liberal Democrats will do “everything we can to stop no deal” except back Corbyn.
  3. The Torie Remainers will do “everything to stop no deal” as long as it is a Tory who becomes the temporary PM.

Clearly, everything does not mean what it used to for everyone involved.

UK General Election Polls

Hopelessly Split

The Liberal Democrats and Labour are hopelessly split. Those backing Brexit will return to the Tory fold. Many already have. Tory support fell to a shocking low of 17% in one poll before Johnson became the prime minister.

Conservatives rate to get 40% of the vote or more with Labour and the Liberal Democrats splitting the rest.

As with US voting, UK parliament winners are not proportional. Even something like 40% could result in a landslide in a first-past-the-post system (the candidate with the most votes wins).

Electoral Calculus

As of July 27, Electoral Calculus estimated the Tories would win the election but fall 15 seats short of a majority.

Seat Delta

For the Conservatives to get a working majority, they have to increase their support in the polls. A useful rule-of-thumb is given by the ‘seat delta’ which indicates approximately how many more seats each party would win if its support increased by 1pc. Both the big two parties have a seat delta of around 15 seats for each 1pc. So an increase in Conservative support of 1pc would gain them about 15 seats, which would take them (just) to an overall parliamentary majority. Each additional increase in support of 1pc would add another 15 seats, which would increase their parliamentary majority by 30 seats (since every new seat adds two to the majority).

Discussion Points

  1. Electoral Calculus numbers are stale and the numbers also overweight the Brexit Party which strongly rates to return to the fold.
  2. Johnson rates to have delivered Brexit. The need for a Brexit party will vanish.
  3. If Brexit has been delivered, the confusing message of Labour certainly will not carry the day. Many disgruntled Labour Party and Liberal Democrats will not even bother to show up on election day.

Making of a Tory Landslide

Assume the Tory delta is 1% = 15 seats near the current totals as per Election Calculus. Heck, assume a more cautious 10 seats.

Assume the Tories manage 38% of the vote instead of the projected 30% and you have another 80 seats going to the Tories. That’s a landslide.

If you care to be even more cautious, flip just 60 seats for a total of 371. That would make it 371:278.

So you can be even more cautious. All the math requites for a solid Tory majority is for a fair number of the Brexit Party to return home while Labour and the Liberal Democrats split the rest with conflicting messages.

Both prospects are highly likely.

All Johnson has to do is deliver Brexit then immediately hold elections. I propose October 31.

Happy Halloween.

END

Italy

It begins…Conte resigns. The President of Italy will now call an election upon which Salvini will surely form a majority.  It is now check to Mr Draghi if he will purchase Italian bonds especially after announcing that he will undergo additional QE

(zerohedge)

 

Italy’s Conte Announces Resignation, Setting The Stage For Prime Minister Salvini

Until today, Italy has had 61 governments since World War II. We can now make that 62.

Moments ago, during a scathing speech that slammed his his deputy premier, Matteo Salvini of the League who is also Italy’s most popular politicians and defacto leader, said Salvini’s decision to spark a political crisis was “irresponsible,” motivated by personal ambition, and will bring down the curtain on the coalition that led the country for just over a year.

In a much anticipated speech to the Senate in Rome, Conte lashed out at Salvini, saying it wasn’t in Italy’s interests to hold elections every year, clearly unaware that that’s pretty much what Italy has been doing for the past 6 decades. The premier also accused Salvini of not properly responding to allegations in the so-called Russiagate case and said he had overstepped his role as minister.

The government’s actions “terminate here,” Conte said, laying the blame for the collapse of the coalition squarely with Salvini and his personal agenda.

Moments later he said he would go to president Mattarella to resign.

The end of the government was largely expected after Salvini pulled his support from the governing alliance with the anti-establishment Five Star Movement earlier in August, saying the coalition no longer has a working majority and setting the stage for a government headed unilaterally by Salvini. The 46-year-old anti-immigration hardliner has been seeking to cash in on his soaring poll ratings and as Bloomberg notes, upended the political establishment with a mid-summer power grab while parliament was in recess.

What happens next will have major implications on Italy’s mountain of public debt which has become the weakest link for Europe’s financial system. One year ago, the ECB effectively threatened to boycott Italian debt as part of its QE sending it plunging. Now that Salvini is set to be Italy’s leader, and the ECB set to restart QE, the question whether Rome will be isolated will once again become front and center, especially with even more debt on tap: on Tuesday, Salvini promised Italians €50 billion of tax cuts and public spending if he can take control of the government.

Italy’s 10-year bond yields were sliding as Conte spoke, briefly rose on his resignation, then resumed sliding.

Stocks moved in parallel.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Israel/Iraq/Iran

Quite awkward:  It seems that Israel once again rocks Baghdad base with known Iranian elements inside these facilities

The base also is home to USA stealth planes

(zerohedge)

Mystery Airstrike Rocks Baghdad Base With US Forces Present; Netanyahu Hints Israel Active Over Iraq

Another Shiite militia base near Baghdad has beenattacked by airstrikes from an unknown source on Tuesday, one week after a huge blast ripped through a separate pro-Iran militia weapons storehouse near the Iraqi capital’s ‘Green Zone’.

Arabic media published images of a massive cloud of smoke coming from the Balad Air Base (also known as al-Bakr base) north of Baghdad, with Iraqi officials confirming the airstrikes. The attack is already being blamed on Israel, and comes following Iraq late last week shutting down its airspace to all ‘unauthorized’ flights not specifically approved at the top levels of the Iraqi government and military. 

 

Israeli F-35 stealth fighters are believed involved in violations of Iraq’s airspace. Iraqi officials also say drones could be behind the spate of ‘mystery airstrikes’. Image via Israel National News

Military Times reported of Iraq’s closure of its airspace last Thursday: “U.S. military officials in Iraq will now seek out Iraqi approval before launching any air operations, a move made a day after that nation’s prime minister announced a ban of unauthorized flights, including those involving coalition forces fighting ISIS.

Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi had called for an end to all “unauthorized flights” including US drones, spy planes, jets, or helicopters. The directive demanded that all aerial vehicles comply with Iraqi law and operations must be under Iraqi government authorization.

Crucially, Balad base – the location of the alleged new airstrikes –hosts US forces and contractorsaccording to Reuters. There are reports of an unknown number of fatalities at the installation which also hosts US-supplied Iraqi F-16 fighter jets.

العين الإخبارية

@alain_4u

| حريق في قاعدة جوية بمحافظة صلاح الدين العراقية

Embedded video

Reuters describes the vicinity of the explosions as follows:

Several blasts hit a position held by Iraqi Shi’ite paramilitaries next to Balad air base north of Baghdad on Tuesday, an Iraqi military official and a source in a paramilitary group said.

Balad base hosts U.S. forces and contractors and is located about 80 km (50 miles) north of Baghdad. An Iraqi Shi’ite militia group, which is backed by Iran, is stationed nearby.

Israel has neither confirmed nor denied having any role in either attacks. The Associated Press is describing the explosion as  “the latest in a series of mysterious blasts that have rocked military bases and weapons depots around the country recently.”

However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday actually hinted that the Israeli Air Force was behind the recent spate of mystery attacks on pro-Iran militia bases in Iraq, saying that Israel will “continue to act militarily” to curtail Iranian expansion in the region, according to The Times of Israel.

Charles Lister

@Charles_Lister

BREAKING – possible airstrikes hit an -backed weapons depot in ‘s Salah ad Din.

The explosions today come just days after demanded *all* aircraft (civil, military & recon) acquire prior MOD approval.

(Images via @BaxtiyarGoran)

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

“Iran has no immunity, anywhere,” he told reporters while on a state visit to Kiev. He was responding to a specific question about the mystery attacks on Iraq. “We will act — and currently are acting — against them, wherever it is necessary,” he declared.

Both Israeli and Arabic media took it as a tacit admission that Israel is now conducing air raids over Iraqi soil — which if confirmed would mark a huge escalation following repeat airstrikes on Syria of the past couple years.

Footage showing the August 12th arms depot blast, also widely blamed on Israel:

Steven nabil

@thestevennabil

weapons depot blast

Embedded video

It also puts the United States in a deeply awkward position, given the US “anti-ISIL” coalition partners with Iraq’s military.

end

6.Global Issues

SWEDEN

This is life in Sweden:  Robberies targeting children has now hit a record high

(Paul Joseph Watson/Summit News)

Sweden: Robberies Targeting Children Hit New Record High

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Robberies targeting children in Sweden have hit a new record high, with young men with migrant backgrounds being blamed for the spike.

According to figures published by Sweden’s crime prevention agency BRÅ, 637 robberies were reported against young people under 18 in the second quarter of this year, the highest ever number.

 

During the same period in 2017, the corresponding figure was 358, while in 2018 it was 505.

During the first six months of this year, 1,277 robberies against minors were reported, which is more than for the whole of 2015.

In 2015, 1,084 robberies targeting children were reported while last year the figure was 1,896. Extrapolated out, there are expected to be roughly 2,500 robberies targeting children for the year of 2019.

According to a report out of Växjö, robberies targeting children have “increased significantly in recent years and young people with immigrant backgrounds are over-represented as perpetrators.”

Commons items that are being stolen include cellphones, mopeds and jewelry.

As I highlight in the video below, despite Sweden’s continuing problems with migrant crime, a 10-year-old’s idea to rename the country “Blandland” to more properly reflect Sweden’s new multicultural society was given positive coverage by the media.

*  *  *

There is a war on free speech. Without your support, my voice will be silenced. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

END
Michael Every is well tuned to global events and is always a must read..
(courtesy Michael Every/Rabobank)

This Is Neither The Empire Strikes Back, Nor The Crying Game, Or The Red Wedding

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

I hate watching a movie unfold towards a ‘big reveal’ when it is so painfully obvious that there is no way to actually feel surprised when it happens. The kind of “Whoa!” moments you got in The Empire Strikes Back, The Crying Game, or The Red Wedding are now few and far between due to shoddy script-writing and on-line spoilers: for every Keyzer Söze there are dozens and dozens of Keyzer So-sos.

As they say, life imitates art.

For example, is anyone really surprised that the Bundesbank is now flagging a German recession this year? Just look at car production data worse now than during the global financial crisis–even before Brexit, or US tariffs, or Italy, etc.–and it is not autobahnbut auto ban that comes to mind. Yet talking of shoddy scripts, it is actually news that Germany is considering fiscal stimulus if it slips into recession. That is the equivalent of a sick patient saying they may consider anaesthetic before major surgery. Is it any wonder that German Bund yields are as negative as they are and that much of Europe is following?

Likewise, is anyone surprised US President Trump is now arguing for a rate cut of a specific size…and QE? “The Fed Rate, over a fairly short period of time, should be reduced by at least 100 basis points, with perhaps some quantitative easing as well. If that happened, our Economy would be even better, and the World Economy would be greatly and quickly enhanced-good for everyone!” Once again, Trump seems to be in tune with the markets – but not the Germans.

You want a real surprise though? USD continues to gain and is close to a 2019 high. That didn’t blindside us, but is certainly both a “Whoa!” and an “Aaaah!” moment for many. The US Treasury is apparently more and more interested in joining Trump in backing a weaker USD, but to achieve that in a global trading system where everyone needs dollars, and all the more so as risk-off sentiment rises, will require a plot twist far larger than Luke Skywalker throwing his lightsabre away.

On which note, another ‘surprise’: the White House has dismissed the idea of payroll tax cuts as a form of stimulus, if needed. Of course, that would push the fiscal deficit to new levels if it happened: but more importantly, the prevailing economic orthodoxy is that such tax cuts are always better directed to the wealthy and/or corporations…which has worked out so very well for us so far.

And another ‘surprise’: Huawei was given another 90-day reprieve by the US, prompting cries that Trump is flip-flopping from some, and sighs of relief from others, both ignoring that at the same time Commerce Secretary Ross noted: “We are giving them [meaning US firms] a little more time to wean themselves off.” Just look at the script’s progress so far: does it look like a genuine trade deal is suddenly going to leap out in the final act?

And another: China has announced that local government borrowing is likely to increase yet again from the already pre-announced CNY2.15 trillion (USD305bn) level of special bond issuance that has already been approved. Let’s recall that officially local governments are not allowed to run deficits; have nonetheless run up vast debts; we were told they were deleveraging; they have already had one de facto PBOC bail out; and they are now essentially becoming a normal arm of fiscal policy…except that most won’t be able to raise the revenue to ever repay this new (or old) borrowing given their tax-raising ability is mainly via rising land prices. If anything happens to property prices, it’s game over – and yet prices are already so high they are causing social problems and distorting the rest of the economy. Now where have we seen that script before?

Not to worry though as fiscal policy everywhere–except Europe?–is shortly going to mean fiscal and monetary policy in an attempt to jump-start the economy, so nobody ever has to pay anything back, we will just deflate it all away (if it doesn’t end up like Japan, or Zimbabwe, or 1930’s mercantilist all-vs-all trade wars). Who knew that at some point the script would have someone saying “I see dead independent central banks”? Sorry – have I given away the surprise ending?

If you already saw that one coming too then kick back and relax with this short article suggesting that Denmark buy the US‘If Denmark’s bid for the United States is accepted, the Scandinavian nation has ambitious plans for its new acquisition. “We believe that, by giving the U.S. an educational system and national health care, it could be transformed from a vast land mass into a great nation,” the spokesperson said.’

7. OIL ISSUES

This is what fracking will do: Kansas and Oklahoma hit by 65 earthquakes in the last 7 days

(zerohedge)

This Isn’t Normal: Kansas & Oklahoma Hit By 65 Earthquakes In Last 7 Days

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

What are we supposed to think when rather large earthquakes start happening in places that aren’t supposed to have large earthquakes? 

2019 has been quite a year for seismic activity already, and I understand that we should expect to see earthquakes in diverse places, but if someone told me that the U.S. was just hit by a significant quake one of the last places that I would check would be Kansas.  The state of Kansas is certainly known for a lot of things, but earthquakes are not one of them, and that is why what we just witnessed is so startling.

According to the Kansas City Starone county in central Kansas alone has been hit by 11 quakes within the past five days…

A county in central Kansas experienced a pretty shocking uptick in seismic activity last week — 11 earthquakes in five days.

It started with a magnitude-2.4 earthquake Wednesday morning just 2 1/2 miles southwest of Hutchinson, Kansas, in Reno County, according to the United States Geological Survey.

There would be 10 more before the week was out.

The biggest one of the group hit on Friday morning.  It was originally reported to be a magnitude 4.2 quake, but it was later downgraded to magnitude 4.1.

Due to the geology of the region, earthquakes in the middle of the country are often felt more acutely, and this particular earthquake was powerful enough to shake things off the shelves of people’s homes

Tim Black, who lives in Hutchinson, told the TV station his house shook and things fell off the walls. And Hutchinson resident Alice Hinnen said things fell off shelves in her home. She said she has felt earthquakes before, but this is the strongest one yet.

KWCH said people across Kansas felt this earthquake. “We’ve heard reports from people as far away as Topeka, Hays, Arkansas City, and into northern Oklahoma,” the station said on its website.

Further south, Oklahoma has experienced even more earthquakes than Kansas has over the past seven days.  Overall, there has been a total of 65 earthquakesbetween the two states over the past week.

That definitely isn’t normal, and we should keep a close eye on this.

Meanwhile, we are also seeing more unusual seismic activity out on the west coast.  In fact, a magnitude 5.4 earthquake just hit the Cascadia Subduction Zone just off the coast of Oregon

The magnitude 5.4 temblor struck at 8:23 a.m. more than 200 miles west of Coos Bay, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The quake hit at a depth of roughly 7 miles.

Earthquakes are not uncommon in the area, which sees frequent seismic activity as tectonic plates meet and shift and crumble under one another. The Cascadia Subduction Zone, a series of faults that runs parallel to the coast from Northern California to British Columbia, is expected to produce a massive quake that could devastate the region.

It is always alarming whenever a quake rattles the Cascadia Subduction Zone, because scientists tell us that someday a monster event will produce a giant tsunami that will wipe out coastal areas up and down the west coast.  For much more on this, please see my previous article entitled “You Have Been Warned: Experts Tell Us That A Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake And Tsunami Will Destroy Everything West Of Interstate 5”.

But more than anywhere else, I am deeply concerned about the California coastline right now.

According to Earthquake Track, there have been 2,801 earthquakes of at least magnitude 1.5 in the state of California within the past 30 days.

If the earthquakes remain small, that won’t be too much of a problem.

But one day the “Big One” is going to hit, and all of our lives will instantly change.

Of course many Californians like to mock the idea that the “Big One” is coming, but physicist Michio Kaku recently told CBS News that it is actually “way overdue”

“We’re playing Russian roulette with Mother Nature,” said physicist Michio Kaku, CBS News reported.

“You realize the last big earthquake to hit the L.A. segment of the San Andreas fault was 1680,” Kaku said, according to the network. “That’s over 300 years ago. But the cycle time for breaks and earthquakes on the San Andreas fault is 130 years, so we are way overdue.”

In fact, Kaku insists that the probability that it will happen within the next 30 years “is about 100%”

“In 30 years’ time the probability of the ‘big one’ is about 100%,” Kaku said, CBS News reported. “So we will see the big one. It’s inevitable. It’s going to happen. It’s the law of physics.”

For those living in southern California, it is kind of like living with a time bomb, but you can’t actually see the timer.

Sadly, one day time will run out, and the death toll will be catastrophic.  The following comes from one of my previous articles

Hopefully it will not happen any time soon, but seismologists assure us that it is only a matter of time before “the Big One” strikes California. They have repeatedly warned us that the San Andreas fault is “locked and loaded” and that it has the potential to “unzip all at once”. And when that day finally arrives, scientists have determined that the ground level could drop by up to 3 feet, and that would result in vast portions of southern California suddenly being covered by the Pacific Ocean.

We live at a time when our planet is becoming increasingly unstable, and we are witnessing major earthquakes and enormous volcanic eruptions all over the globe on a daily basis now.

I have been thinking about the coming California earthquake a lot today.  The people living there have been warned over and over again, and they know the risks.

And only 13 percent of all California homeowners actually have earthquake insurance.

So when they lose their homes, they are really going to lose their homes.

Our planet is rocking and rolling, and the warning signs are very clear.  Let us hope for the best, but the truth is that Californians are already living on borrowed time, and eventually there will be no more grace period.

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1079 DOWN .0008 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY IN THE RED EXCEPT LONDON

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.35 DOWN 0.214 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2077   DOWN   0.0050  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3334 UP .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 3 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 3.09 POINTS OR 0.11% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 60.30 POINTS OR 0.23%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.17%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY IN THE RED EXCEPT LONDON

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY IN THE RED EXCEPT LONDON

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 60.30 POINTS OR 0.23%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.09 POINTS OR 0.11%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.17% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 114.06  POINTS OR 0.55%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1506.80

silver:$17.04-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.57% !!! DOWN 4 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.04 DOWN 5  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 98.38 UP 4 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.12% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.23%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.10%//DOWN 4 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,37 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 127 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.69% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.16% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1093  UP     .0011 or 11 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.35 DOWN .210 OR YEN UP 21  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2147 UP .0019 POUND UP 19  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 9 basis points to 1.33331

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0605    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0704  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7368 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.23%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 IN basis points from MONDAY at 21.55 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.05 DOWN 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.25 DOWN 9  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 64.65  OR  0.90%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 64.19 POINTS OR .55%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 26.92 POINTS 0.50%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 115.00 POINTS or 1.32%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 230.06 POINTS OR 1.11%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 55.79 12:00  PM est

Brent Oil: 59.80 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    66.51  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.44 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 44 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.69 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  56/34//

 

 

BRENT :  59.94

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.55 down 6 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.03 down 6 basis pts..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1103 ( UP 22   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106/22 DOWN .340 (YEN UP 34 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.13 DOWN 22 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2174 UP 46  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7251

 

 

the Russian rouble 66.50   UP 0.44 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 44 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3311 UP 18 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0605  (ONSHORE)/

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0797 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.69%

The Dow closed DOWN 173.35 POINTS OR 0.66%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 54.25 POINTS OR 0.68%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  17.60 CLOSED UP .72

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.151%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fading Stimulus Hype Sinks Stocks, Dollar

up. down. good. bad. “best economy ever”. “recession imminent”. record highs. record lows.

Chinese stocks were broadly flat overnight but tech-heavy ChiNext was weaker…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks were all weaker today, accelerating lower after the Italian political chaos…

Source: Bloomberg

Italian bond yields plunged today after the political chaos (likely delaying the budget-busting vote)…

 

US equity markets gave back a good chunk of yesterday’s hype-fueled gains…

 

Dow futures show the pump and dump best…

 

Sure enough the short-squeeze ran out of ammo and slumped…

Source: Bloomberg

2019 still looks oddly similar to 1998…

 

Source: Bloomberg
S&P slipped back down to its 100DMA

 

FANG stocks gave up all Monday’s gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds and stocks remain dramatically decoupled…

 

Source: Bloomberg

In fact the correlation between bond yields and stocks (typically positive – higher yields, higher stock prices), is its most negative since 2007…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields continued their slide lower today after a brief bounce…

Source: Bloomberg

With 30Y heading back towards 2.0% again…

Source: Bloomberg

And the yield curve resumed flattening…

Source: Bloomberg

And the Term structure-implied odds of a recession are now above 70%…

After 6 straight days higher (to the highest since 2018), the dollar index slipped lower today…

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

Cryptos were broadly lower today (Bitcoin held above $10k)…

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

Silver outperformed notably on the day and oil prices dumped and pumped…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Spot gold prices bounced back above $1500…

 

Source: Bloomberg

And Silver popped back above $17…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Silver significantly outperformed gold on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI Crude tumbled after the US cash market open but was bid back to unchanged ahead of tonight’s API inventory data…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, bond markets are oddly alone in their volatility currently…

 

Source: Bloomberg

And gold continues to track the world’s policymaker idiocy perfectly (Crypto has some catching up to do)

 

Source: Bloomberg

 end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Unbelievable!! all sovereign debt outside of the usa (investment grade) are negative for the first time in history

(zerohedge)

The Ice Age Arrives: Average Sovereign Yield Outside The US Turns Negative For The First Time Ever

Last Friday afternoon, when what few traders were not on vacation were planning the venue of their evening alcohol consumption, we showed a remarkable analysis by Bank of America, which found that yields on the $27.8 trillion non-USDglobal investment grade bond market had declined to just 16bps and that the US share of global investment grade yields has climbed to 94%. But the punchline is that, as we said, “non-USD sovereign yields had dropped to just 2bps, meaning that any day now foreign sovereign debt may have no yield at all on average.”

Fast forward to Monday, when following another surge in global bond prices, Bank of America refreshed its analysis, and foudn that the striking trends noted last week had become even more fascinating, to wit yields on the $27.8tn non-USD global IG fixed income market had declined to just 11bps (down from 16bps just one day earlier)…

… and the US share of global IG yields climbed to 95%…

… meaning that any foreign investor who is desperate for even the smallest trace of positive yield has no choice but to come to the US, something Kyle Bass echoed earlier on CNBC: “US rates are going to zero because they are the only DM yields with an integer in front of them.”

Joumanna Bercetche

@CNBCJou

.@Jkylebass on CNBC: “US rates are going to zero because they are the only DM yields with an integer in front of them”

– btw this echoes Pimco comment from earlier. In a race to negative/ zero what do you own?https://twitter.com/cnbcjou/status/1163698049597759488?s=21 

Joumanna Bercetche

@CNBCJou

Pimco have started trimming fixed income positions worried about a sharp repricing higher; still prefer US fixed income to others

Last pgs also key: unorthodox policies like helicopter money cannot be ruled out@FT article by @RobinWigg https://on.ft.com/2ZaYYZH 

 

But the biggest shock is that for Albert Edwards, vindication is here if only outside the US for now: as per the BofA update, non-USD sovereign yields on $19 trillion in global debt – which was a paltry but positive +0.02% on Friday – have now turned negative on average for the first time ever at -3bps.

The silver lining: for now the average US sovereign yield is like a beacon for foreign investors, offering a “juicy” 1.59% but we fully expect this number to keep dropping as offshore pension funds rush to lock in positive yields while they can; naturally any further Fed rate cuts or “some QE” will only bring the US D-Day that much closer.

It’s not just us: commenting on the Japanification of the world, Bank of America’s Hans Mikkelsen wrote that “we continue to think there is a wall of new money being forced into the global corporate bond market” and adds that “the trigger is lower interest rate volatility or simply the passage of time, as a lot of foreign investors are being charged (negative yields) for being underinvested.”

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

the largest bond holder PIMCO is already dumping USA sovereign bonds as well as European bonds on fears of Helicopter Money’ being around the corner

 

(zerohedge)

PIMCO Starts Dumping Bonds, Fears “Helicopter Money” Around The Corner

Amid a collapse in global bond yields (to record lows) and soaring aggregate volumes of central-bank-created negative-yielding debt, at least one big bond shop is dumping sovereigns.

Source: Bloomberg

“We’re a lot more defensive,” warned PIMCO’s Daniel Ivascyn, group CIO at the massive bond manager, noting that after the best year-to-date performance since 2003, the fund is paring its positions in government debt on fears that a breakthrough in US-China trade talks could trigger a violent sell-off.

“Even if we get a narrow trade agreement [between the US and China] we could see a pretty powerful snapback in yields.

However, as The FT reports, while PIMCO is lightening up on their positions in the UK and European bond markets, it is reducing exposure to the US government bond markets less.

We like the US market more – it still has more room to rally in a global flight to safety,” Mr Ivascyn said.

But it wouldn’t take much of an uptick in inflation to cause a meaningful repricing.

Ivascyn may appear more constructive on growth and inflation but, as FT notes, he tempers his enthusiasm by noting that,

“We think we’ll at best get a partial agreement on trade, and this friction will be with us for a long time.”

And one could argue bonds are more in line with the depressionary signals than stocks currently…

Source: Bloomberg

It appears investors are buying any dip (in price) in USTs for now…

Source: Bloomberg

His greatest fear, which is likely driving the decision to dump European debt faster than US debt, is simple – unorthodox policy mania…

“We think it’s premature to declare inflation to be dead…”

“We could still see more unorthodox policies, like ‘helicopter money’.”

PIMCO’s words (and actions, we presume), echo a report from BlackRock, co-authored by Philipp Hildebrand, Stanley Fischer and Jean Boivin, pointing out that central banks have limited firepower left in their monetary armory, and that fiscal policy is constrained by still-high debt levels. The trio concluded that “unprecedented policies will be needed to respond to the next economic downturn”. The report added:

“Without a clear framework in place, policymakers will inevitably find themselves blurring the boundaries between fiscal and monetary policies… This threatens the hard-won credibility of policy institutions and could open the door to uncontrolled fiscal spending.”

Will it be different this time?

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Miss Nevada Banned From Entering Miss America Over Her Support For Trump

Miss Nevada has been banned from competing in the upcoming Miss America beauty contest because of her refusal to hide her support for Donald Trump
(courtesy Paul Joseph Watson/SummitNews)

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Miss Nevada says she was banned from competing in the upcoming Miss America beauty contest because of her refusal to hide her support for President Trump.

“I was officially disqualified from competing in the Miss America pageant for 2019,” said Katie Jo Williams in an Instagram video.

She says organizers told her she was “too political” to be involved.

Williams asked what she could do to resolve the issue, and was told the only recourse was to delete everything she had posted on social media.

The director of the pageant sent screenshots which included pictures of Williams in her Trump 2020 hat, professing her love for America and her opposition to Antifa, making it clear that they all needed to be erased.

Williams refused and was subsequently stripped of her Miss Nevada title.

Organizers then told Williams that in order to get a refund for her entry fee, she would have to send back her sash and crown for winning Miss Nevada and agree to not tell anyone about being banned from competing in Miss America.

“I feel like if I had more liberal views, less conservative views, that this wouldn’t even be an issue,” said Williams, adding, “I stand by everything I posted.”

*  *  *

There is a war on free speech. Without your support, my voice will be silenced. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

end
OH!!OH!! The cellmate of Epstein begs the Judge for a transfer because of the guards threatening him
(zerohedge)

Epstein’s Former Cellmate Begs Judge For Transfer To Another Jail

Jeffrey Epstein’s former cellmate has asked a New York judge to move him to a new prison after he says prison guards have been threatening him in the wake of the registered sex offender’s death, according to the New York Post.

Hulking ex-cop Nicholas Tartaglione — who briefly bunked with Epstein at the Metropolitan Correctional Center — has been told by various guards there to “shut up,” “stop talking” and “stop complaining,” as questions swirled about how the accused sex trafficker was able to commit suicide in federal custody, Tartaglione attorney Bruce Barket says in a letter to White Plains federal Judge Kenneth Karas.

Tartaglione was sharing a cell with Epstein during what’s believed to have been the 66-year-old’s first suicide attempt, on July 23. The two were separated before Epstein hanged himself on Aug. 10. –New York Post

Epstein told his lawyers that Tartaglione had “roughed him up” according to a previous report by the Post. The ex-cop’s lawyer, Bruce Barket said in response “I do know that Nick was not brought up on any charges at all in the institution, so they cleared him.”

In his request for transfer, the 51-year-old Tartaglione said he was told there would be a “price to pay” if he talks about Epstein’s death.

“The clear message Mr. Tartaglione has received is that if he conveys information about the facility or about [Epstein’s] recent suicide, there will be a price to pay,” reads the letter from Barket. “Whether or not the investigators into the suicide chose to interview Mr. Tartaglione about the attempted suicide to which he was witness or about how the facility is run and the conditions under which the inmates are forced to live, the correction officers know he has information potentially very damaging to the very people now charged with guarding him or their coworkers.”

Barket also decried the “deplorable” conditions at the Metropolitan Correctional Center (MCC), including “a serious rodent and insect infestation.”

Tartaglione faces the death penalty for his alleged involvement in four drug-related murders. Feds claim the ex-cop and an accomplice lured Martin Luna to a Chester, NY lounge to find stolen cocaine money and instead ended up killing Luna and three other men he had brought for protection.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

China, Germany and US Commerce Secretary Ross boosted stocks globally on Monday.

China Considering Increasing Local Debt Sales to Boost Stimulus

Policy makers may raise special bond quota from $305 billion

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-19/china-considering-increasing-local-debt-sales-to-boost-stimulus

China Rate Reform Set to Lower Borrowing Costs as Economy Slows

  • New loan prime rate to refer to PBOC’s mid-term loan pricing
  • Aug. 20 move marks start of long-awaited interest rate reform

The changes push China’s financial system further toward being truly market-led,and away from the Communist-era command economy where officials set both the price and quantity of credit. By unifying market and official rates, the PBOC also intends to bring down the stubbornly high cost of borrowing and aid pass-through of future changes in policy rates…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-16/china-adds-detail-to-long-awaited-interest-rate-reform-plan

Germany readying stimulus plan as contingency for deep recession

On Sunday, Finance Minister Olaf Scholz suggested the government would aim to muster 50 billion euros (US$55 billion) of extra spending in case of an economic crisis. Last week, Chancellor Angela Merkel said the economy is “heading into a difficult phase” and that her government will react “depending on the situation.”…The government requires the lower house of parliament to declare a crisisso it can issue debt beyond the normal guidelines allowed during a recession

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/germany-readying-stimulus-plan-as-contingency-for-deep-recession-1.1303570

@MariaBartiromo: @CommerceGov Secy Wilbur Ross just confirmed the US is extending Huawei deadline while also adding 46 subsidiaries to the “entity list” @MorningsMaria @FoxBusiness Nov19th new deadline for us CO’s to stop selling to Huawei.

Technology stocks led indexes higher on Wall Street after the U.S. gave Chinese telecom giant Huawei another 90 days to buy equipment from American suppliershttps://abcn.ws/31LvOgm

ESUs, which opened higher on Sunday night traded sideways during Asian trading.  The usual rally into the European open was magnified by the German stimulus story.  After the early euphoria in Europe, ESUs retreated 10 handle by 5:00 ET.  Then the rally to game the US open was accentuated by Wilbur Ross’s Huawei announcement.  However, so many traders were already long that the NYSE opening rally peaked within ten minutes.  ESUs and stocks slid until the rally for the European close appeared.

The contrived rally into the European close was aided and abetted by Don Yuan Trump.

@realDonaldTrump: Our Economy is very strong, despite the horrendous lack of vision by Jay Powell and the Fed, but the Democrats are trying to “will” the Economy to be bad for purposes of the 2020Election.  Very Selfish! Our dollar is so strong that it is sadly hurting other parts of the world

The Fed Rate, over a fairly short period of time, should be reduced by at least 100 basis points, with perhaps some quantitative easing as well. If that happened, our Economy would be even better, and the World Economy would be greatly and quickly enhanced-good for everyone!

How can anyone not be sick of Trump’s incessant Fed bashing and rate-cut braying?

Boston Fed President Rosengren on BBG TV halted the afternoon rally when he said: “There are costs to easing at times when you don’t need to ease. You could pull forward demand and increase leverage.”

DJT is focused on the 2020 Election.  He’d love to ‘pull forward demand’ over the next 15 months.

Fed’s Rosengren says cutting interest rates now would make next recession worse

Boston Fed president, who dissented from July ease, downplays imminent recession risks

    “And if they get leveraged right before the economy has significant problems, we’re actually in much worse shape,” Rosengren said. “We have to think about…how much we want households and firms to be leveraged going into whenever we actually do have a significant downturn,” he added, in an interview on Bloomberg Television…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-rosengren-says-cutting-interest-rates-now-would-make-next-recession-worse-2019-08-19

Rosengren’s reasons for dissenting against a Fed rate cut:

  • Unemployment near 50-year lows
  • Trimmed mean PCE inflation is at 2%
  • US economy growing above potential
  • Cost of credit is not elevated
  • Market volatility is not elevated
  • Credit spreads are not elevated
  • Stocks are near all-time highs
  • Corporate leverage is at an all-time high

https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/!/comments-from-boston-fed-president-rosengren-coming-up-20190819#disqus_thread

After Rosengren’s hawkish comments, ESUs and stocks rolled over, but the decline was modest because everyone in the known world wants to be long stocks into Powell’s expected dovish speech on Friday.

@CharlieDaniels: America should never have gotten into the position that we depend on any other country for the basic elements of our economy. It will cause some pain but if Trump will stick to his guns China will come around, they need us.  After all we are the most profitable market on the planet

After the close yesterday, Team Trump applied more verbal intervention to drive stocks higher.

White House officials explore payroll tax cut to prevent economic downturn…[16:26 ET]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2019/08/19/white-house-officials-explore-payroll-tax-cut-to-prevent-economic-downturn-people-familiar-with-the-matter-say/

CNBC’s @EamonJavers: WH official pours cold water on payroll tax cut idea floated in the Washington Post today: “As Larry Kudlow said yesterday, more tax cuts for the American people are certainly on the table, but cutting payroll taxes is not something under consideration at this time.”

Which one of the above tax-cut stories is fake news?

With the Russia Collusion hoax in the trash and the MSM’s racism scheme discredited by the NYT revelation, the MSM has pivoted to recession as a means to stop Trump.  DJT, already in campaign mode, will now push harder for more fiscal & monetary stimuli.  The tax cut gambit is a no-lose plot for DJT.  Either he gets the cut or it fails because of Dems, who will then take the hit for any economic stumble.

WSJ: States to Launch Antitrust Probe of Big Tech Firms – A group of state attorneys general is preparing to move forward with a joint antitrust investigation of big technology companies…

https://www.wsj.com/articles/attorneys-general-to-move-forward-with-antitrust-probe-of-big-tech-11566247753?mod=hp_lead_pos1

Today – ESUs and stocks are ripe for a Turnaround Tuesday to the downside.  However, a tweet or headline at any moment can change the course of mighty rivers.  Any retreat should be modest to moderate because everyone wants to be long for Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.

There are two bullish hooks this week: 1) Trump and Xi communicating on trade; and 2) Powell speaks on Friday at the KC Fed’s annual Jackson Hole, WY.  The fin media are already declaring that Powell will cancel his ‘mid-cycle adjustment’ jive and announce that the Fed will commence a new rate cut cycle.  Ergo, traders will buy dips and get long late in the week for Powell’s expected rate-cut speech.

The biggest negatives from Monday were the late decline and the mushrooming euphoria for stocks.  @hmeisler:  Equity put/call ratio 55%; 2as 98% two days ago (please see my pinned tweet); also is lowest since 7/12

Attorney General Barr orders removal of acting US prisons director after Epstein’s death

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/19/william-barr-orders-removal-of-prisons-director-after-jeffrey-epstein-death.html

Illinois state senator [Sandoval] apologizes for staged Trump assassination photos at fundraiser

“Every Democrat should be asked if they support or disavow this,” she [Kellyanne Conway] tweeted…

[Most of the MSM ignored this.  Think of the outrage if Trump or a Republican had done this to Obama or a leading Dem!]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7370951/Democratic-senator-apologizes-supporters-constructed-mock-ASSASSINATION-Trump.html

 

Parody site @TheBabylonBee: Bernie Sanders Arrives in Hong Kong to Lecture Protesters on How Good They Have It under Communism – “Remember, you could have it a lot worse; you could be in America!” Sanders bellowed as police officers for the totalitarian regime beat protesters in the background…https://babylonbee.com/news/bernie-sanders-arrives-in-hong-kong-to-lecture-protesters-on-how-good-they-have-it-under-communism

 

In blue Seattle, Trump supporters are starting to come out of hiding

With nearly 15 months to go before the 2020 election, he already has drawn more donations from Seattle addresses than he did during the entire 2016 campaign. 

In Washington state, where his approval rating is 28 points underwaterTrump has still racked up far more donations, big and small, than any of the Democratic candidates — in fact more than the top six Democrats combined…

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/in-blue-seattle-trump-supporters-are-starting-to-come-out-of-hiding/

Trump Re-Election Campaign Surprises by Raising Millions in California

New campaign finance statistics show that President Donald Trump raised $3.2 million—more money from the California donor class than all of his Democratic challengers but two [Harris & Bittigieg]

https://timesofsandiego.com/politics/2019/07/20/trump-re-election-campaign-surprises-by-raising-millions-in-california/amp/

@EmeraldRobinson: Fox News Poll: “Joe Biden beats President Trump by 14 points!”  # of New Hampshire voters who show up last week for Trump rally: 12,000; # of NH voters who show up for Joe Biden rally the same night as Trump rally: 30  What does that tell you?

Well that is all for today

I will see you Wednesday night.

 

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