SEPT 4//GOLD REBOUNDS AGAIN UP $5.00 TO $1551.60//SILVER ALSO HAS A STELLAR DAY UP $.28 TO $19.43// HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT AT THE FRAUDULENT GLD OF 11.73 TONNES TO STAND AT 890.04 TONNES//HUGE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI AND EFP ISSUANCE//STRONG OI AND STRONG EFP ISSUANCE FOR SILVER//LAM TO REMOVE EXTRADITION RIGHT FOR MAINLAND CHINA BUT NATIVES WANT BETTER DEMOCRACY//BORIS JOHNSON LOSES VOTE AND WILL NOW ASK FOR A NEW ELECTION//JIM BIANCO COMMENTS ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN ONCE WE PROCEED INTO ZERO BOUND INTEREST RATES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

GOLD:$1551.60 UP $5.00 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$19.43 UP 28 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1553.00

 

silver:  $19.59

Gold and silver had stellar performances again today with gold advancing by $5.0 and silver by 28 cents. As I stated yesterday:  “I have been pointing out to you lately that the bankers are in serious trouble as they have a massive derivative shortage in both metals but a truly mammoth one in silver. Bankers get killed in derivatives with the speed to which our precious metal rises.  Silver, in late June was trading around $14.75 so a gain of over 4.40 in 2 months fries our bankers.  Deutsche bank with huge silver exposure will no doubt need the support of the Bundesbank to continue.”‘

Today I got quite excited to see gold and silver rise and especially into the close at the comex.  The bankers are loathe to keep any new paper shorts longer than a few hours.

Yesterday I pointed out to you a very important paper from Alasdair MacLeod as we are now heading into zero bound interest rates. Jim Bianco comments today on the same topic and that is your must read for today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we are getting very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 26/75

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,545.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/03/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 09/05/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 24
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 4
661 H JP MORGAN 22
737 C ADVANTAGE 37 15
800 C MAREX SPEC 38
905 C ADM 9
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 75 75
MONTH TO DATE: 1,596

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT CONTRACT: 75 NOTICE(S) FOR 7500 OZ (0.2328 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1596 NOTICES FOR 159,600 OZ  (4.9642 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR SEPT

 

 

651 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 3,255,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 6132 for   30,660,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10,529 down 78 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10686 UP 64

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE  AND CRIMINALLY  SIZED 6901 CONTRACTS FROM 218,787 UP TO 225,688 WITH THE 83 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR SEPT: 0, AND ZERO; DEC: FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  3322 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3322 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3322 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 16.61 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 83 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

36.240   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

WE HAD NEGLIGIBLE COVERING OF BANKER SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX ON YESTERDAY DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE BANKERS HAVE NOW COME TO REALIZE THAT THEY ARE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE.  THE LIQUIDATION OF COMEX OI OF SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED AND WE WILL NOW COMMENCE WITH THE ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADERS GOLD OPEN INTEREST.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT.:

4592 CONTRACTS (FOR 2 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 4592 CONTRACTS) OR 22.96 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1148 CONTRACTS OR 5.74 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT:  22.96 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 3.28% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1572.67   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 6,901, WITH THE 83 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD ANOTHER  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3322 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY  SIZED: 10,223 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 3322 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 6,901  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 83 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $19.15 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.128 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 161% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 651 NOTICE(S) FOR 3,255,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/  SEPT 36.240 MILLION OZ//
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN OUT OF THIS WORLD: 24,886 CONTRACTS, TO 634,358 ACCOMPANYING THE  $25.60 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 6946 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  11,621 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 634,358,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZE GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 36,507 CONTRACTS:,24,886 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 11,621 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 36,507 CONTRACTS OR 3,650,700 OZ OR 113.55 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $25.60 IN GOLD TRADING....AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUGE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 113.55  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON TRYING TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. WE PROBABLY HAD SOME NEGLIGIBLE GOLD BANKER SHORT COVERING 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. : 18,567 CONTRACTS OR 1,856,700 oz OR 57.75 TONNES (2 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 9284 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 57.75 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 57.75/3550 x 100% TONNES =1.626% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4208.87  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 24,886 WITH THE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($25.60)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 11,621 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 11,621 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 36,507 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: (AND A NEW RECORD FOR A GAIN ON BOTH EXCHANGES)

11,621 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 24,886 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 113.55 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $25.60 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  75 notice(s) filed upon for 7500 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:11.73 TONNES

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.04 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:

VERY STRANGE!!

 

A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM THE SLV

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 6,901 CONTRACTS from 218,787 UP TO 225,688 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR SEPT  0 FOR DEC:. 3322  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3322 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 6913  CONTRACTS TO THE 3322 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 10,223 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 51.12 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ ;AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//SEPT 2019: 36.240 MILLION OZ/

 

 

RESULT: A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 83 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 3322 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN UP 27.26 POINTS OR 0.93%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 995.38 POINTS OR 3.90%   /The Nikkei closed UP 23.98 POINTS OR 0.12%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .31%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.1526 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.1526 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1529 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)By goodness:  Markit’s Hong Kong PMI collapsed to a massive contraction from 51.8 down to 40.8 due to the chaos in HK.

(zerohedge)

ii)Lam unexpectedly withdraws her hated extradition bill.  However that is one only of the 5 demands.  Also it is not Lam that is controlling the purse strings in Hong Kong but Mainland China.  Let us see if protests stop

(zerohedge)

iii)In the words of Bill Blain:

“it is hard to put back the tear gas into the bottle”.. experts doubt the Lam’s big concession will pacify the pro democracy protest movement and thus expect more protests this weekend!

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)What a mess!! The pound surges as BoJo prepares for a snap election.  However he needs the Liberals and he may not get their support as they may be decimated on anew election

(zerohedge)

ii)If Corbyn wins, the UK is preparing for a mass exodus of the richest taxpayer as well as Jewish people as he is anti- Semitic

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey

Now Turkey states that it may need nuclear weapons.. With Erdogan in the helm I doubt very much that the West will allow him to obtain this

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

Jim Bianco is a very smart cookie.  He outlines why negative interest rates throughout the globe threatens the financial system.  Binaco states that negative interest rates punish banks for loaning out money.  If you plug a negative interest rate into pension models, it causes the entire pension system to be unfunded.  Bianco is stating exactly what Alasdair Macleod said: negative interest rates causes dollars to go into backwardation and by doing so causes all commodities including gold and silver to go into backwardation..which of course will price our two precious metals to the moon.

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

The high USA dollar is again playing havoc to our emerging markets.  The slowdown in trade growth has causes most of our emerging market central banks to cut rates and their cutting is the most since the financial crisis of 2008

(zerohedge)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Is the USA heading for the zero bound in interest rates following Japan and Germany?

(London’s Financial Times/GATA)

ii)This is going to be interesting..long before the Communist party took over in China (1949), the Government in charge issued railroad bonds. These bonds have defaulted and the Chinese do not recognize their issuance.  However Trump is studying the prospect of reviving century old claims on these Chinese bonds.

(Bloomberg)

iii)Von Greyerz is in my camp as to what value silver will eventually lead to.  He even fathoms a 500 per oz price.

a good read..

(Von Greyerz/KingworldNews)

iv)Craig Hemke is also dubious of the GLD gold being “real”

A study the strange UK gold import and export trends

(Craig Hemke/Sprott)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Dorian devastated Bahamas

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Seems that Omar is quite good at wrecking families: now her husband wants a divorce from her for dishonouring the family. Also Mynett is seeking a divorce from her husband who has having an affair with Omar

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 24,886 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 636,761  ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE GAIN OF $25.60 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 11,621 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR OCT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 11,621   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  11,621 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 36,507 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 11,621 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 24,886 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TRYING TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. WE PROBABLY HAD NEGLIGIBLE BANKER SHORT COVERING TODAY 

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  36,507 CONTRACTS OR 3,650,700 OZ OR 115.55 TONNES.

 

 

 

We are now in the  active contract month of SEPT and here the open interest stands at 117 CONTRACTS as we LOST 169 contract.  We had 242 notices filed yesterday so we surprisingly gained another whopping 73 contracts or an additional 7300 oz will stand at the comex as the guys refused to morph into London with their phony EFP contracts. By refusing to morph they also refused to accept a fiat bonus. Ladies and Gentlemen:  the comex is under attack for physical metal.

The next active delivery month is October and here the OI ROSE by 131 contracts UP to 45,116. NOVEMBER  received its first contract to stand at 1. After NOVEMBER, we have the active delivery month of December and here we have a MONSTROUS GAIN of 22,781 contracts and the total OI stands at  475,760

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 75 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  7500 OZ. (0.2328 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 6901 CONTRACTS FROM 218,787 UP TO 225,688 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 83 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.  HERE WE HAVE A STRONG 1767 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 452 CONTRACTS. WE HAD A HUGE 651 NOTICES FILED UPON YESTERDAY SO AGAIN WE HAD A MASSIVE GAIN OF 199 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 995,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX.  LIKE GOLD, THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON WITH THOSE  PHONY EFP CONTRACTS.  BY DOING SO THEY REFUSED TO ACCEPT A FIAT BONUS AND THEY NOW STAND WITH THEIR BIG BROTHER GOLD ATTACKING THE COMEX FOR WHATEVER PRECIOUS METAL THEY CAN FIND OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

AFTER SEPT COMES THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER AND HERE THEY RECEIVED ANOTHER 92 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1369.  NOVEMBER RECEIVED ANOTHER 14 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 40. NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 6822 CONTRACTS UP TO 179,747

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 651 notice(s) filed for 3,255,000 OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 402,331  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  577,445  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  SEPT/GOLD

SEPT 4/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 8037.75 oz

 

Brinks

25 kilobars

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
75 notice(s)
 7500 OZ
(0.2328 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
42 contracts
(4200 oz)
0.51306 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1596 notices
159600 OZ
4.9642 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 1 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ zero amount  arrived   today

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i Out of Brinks:

a phony 8037.75 oz  (25 kilobars)

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 8037.75  oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today
FOR THE SEPT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 75 contract(s) of which 22 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 4 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1596) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT. (117 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (75 x 100 oz per contract) equals 163,800 OZ OR 5.0948 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of SEPT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1596 x 100 oz)  + (117)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (75 x 100 oz )which equals 163.800 oz standing OR 5.0948 TONNES in this  active delivery month of SEPT.

We surprisingly again gained a monstrous 73 contracts or an additional 7300 oz will seek metal on this side of the pond instead of morphing over to London.  The gold comex is now under siege for any remaining physical metal.

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 27.153  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING //AUGUST AND 5.0948 TONNES IN SEPT.// JUDGING BY THE HUGE SIZE OF THE COMEX NOTICES FILED TODAY, IT LOOKS LIKE SOMEBODY IS WILLING TO TAKE ON THE CROOKS AT THE COMEX.

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT AND THUS I WILL ADD THE 27.153 TONNES TO THE 5.0948 TONNES (EQUALS 32.2478 TONNES) AGAINST THE 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  736,702.381 oz or  22.91 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,092.019.636 oz 251.69 tonnes

IN THE LAST 35 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
SEPT 4 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 644,673.390 oz
CNT
INT.DELAWARE
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
7,710.03 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
651
CONTRACT(S)
(3255,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1116 contracts
 5,580,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  6132 contracts

30,660,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into CNT:  7,710.030 oz

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  1134,863.019  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT:  967.400 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 599,976.54 oz

iii) Out of Int Delaware: 43,729.450

 

 

 

 

 

 

total:  644,673.390  oz

 

we had 3 adjustment :

i) Out of CNT: 1,271,293.850 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of CNT and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

ii) Out of Int Delaware: 318,501.625 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of Int Delaware and this landed into their dealer account

total dealer silver:  83.034 million

total dealer + customer silver:  310.580 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER 2019. contract month is represented by 651 contract(s) FOR 3,255,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6132 x 5,000 oz = 30,660,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (1767) and the number of notices served upon today 651 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2019 contract month: 6132 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (1767)- number of notices served upon today (651)x 5000 oz equals 36,240,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month. 

We gained 199 contracts or a huge 995,000 additional oz of silver will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER. 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 651 notice(s) filed for 3,255,000 OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  1487,047 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 208,663 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 208,663 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 1,043 million  OZ 149.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.54% ((SEPT 4/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.95% to NAV (SEPT 4/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.54%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.96 TRADING 15.54/DISCOUNT 2.65

 

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: I)A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD (LATE YESTERDAY EVENING) AND 2) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES LATE THIS AFTERNOON./INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.17 TONNES

AUGUST 20//WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WE GOT BACK 7.63 TONNES OUT OF 11.11 TONNES LOST ON WEDNESDAY( A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

 

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

SEPT 4/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 890.04 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 656 TRADING DAYS: 45.34 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 556- TRADING DAYS: A NET 121.31 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.696 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20.WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

 

AUGUST 16/: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 15/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/2019:

 

 

Inventory 387.446 MILLION OZ

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.05/ and libor 6 month duration 2.01

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .04

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.92%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.94

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.02

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Gains 1.7% and Silver Surges 4.9% After Weak U.S. Data Compounds Global Recession Fears

* Gold gained 1.7% and silver surged 4.9% yesterday after weak U.S. manufacturing data reinforced fears of a U.S. and global recession

* The escalation in the U.S.-China trade war and the political shambles in the UK and Brexit further bolstered gold bullion’s safe-haven appeal

* U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in 3 years in yet another indication that we are in a recession or soon to enter one

* Silver surged 4.9% to near a 3 year high, breaching the $19/oz level

 

News and Commentary

Gold, silver surge after weak U.S. data compounds slowdown fears (Silver surges over 3%)

Gold rallies back to highest in over 6 years as ISM manufacturing marks lowest reading since 2016

Gold May Rise to $1,600, UBS WM’s Gordon Says (video)

One Of The Greats Says Despite Volatility Gold Bull Is Headed To $1,800

$1 billion decline in Venezuela’s gold reserves in first half of year

Wall Street bogged down by trade, growth concerns

10-year Treasury yield falls to July 2016 low as ISM manufacturing index enters contraction

Switzerland Tried Negative Rates in the 1970s. It Got Very Ugly

 

 

Gold Prices (LBMA – USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)

03-Sep-19 1532.45 1537.85, 1278.06 1277.80 & 1400.35 1403.44
02-Sep-19 1523.35 1525.95, 1260.42 1265.01 & 1388.69 1391.51
30-Aug-19 1526.55 1528.40, 1253.14 1251.15 & 1382.75 1383.51
29-Aug-19 1536.65 1540.20, 1260.51 1262.96 & 1387.29 1392.03
28-Aug-19 1541.75 1537.15, 1263.31 1258.77 & 1389.89 1387.43
27-Aug-19 1531.85 1532.95, 1250.91 1247.51 & 1378.97 1380.88
26-Aug-19 UK Bank Holiday
23-Aug-19 1495.50 1503.80, 1224.37 1228.91 & 1351.48 1357.63

 

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Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Is the USA heading for the zero bound in interest rates following Japan and Germany?

(London’s Financial Times)

Will U.S. follow Japan and Germany to rates below zero?

 Section: 

By Colby Smith
Financial Times, London
Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Some U.S. investors are girding themselves for the once-inconceivable prospect that the 10-year Treasury yield could be headed toward zero, as this year’s giant rally in bonds shows few signs of easing.

In a world awash with roughly $17 trillion of negative-yielding government debt — meaning buyers are guaranteed to get back less than they paid, via interest and principal, if they hold to maturity — America’s government bond market has long offered refuge to investors seeking higher returns.

… 

German government bonds maturing in 10 years now yield minus 0.70%, while Japan’s 10-year debt yields minus 0.27%. In that context, the 1.5% yield on the 10-year Treasury looks attractive.

But roughly a month ago the 10-year note was yielding about 2%. The tight time frame of that 50 basis-point slide has caught investors by surprise, leading some to put the prospect of further heavy falls on their radars.

“We could see zero,” said Nick Maroutsos, the co-head of global bonds at Janus Henderson in Newport Beach, California, noting that any selloff in bonds so far, causing yields to rise, has been met with immediate buying. “The probability is increasing, particularly as we drop so rapidly.”

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/2bcac0e8-cb63-11e9-a1f4-3669401ba76f

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

This is going to be interesting..long before the Communist party took over in China (1949), the Government in charge issued railroad bonds. These bonds have defaulted and the Chinese do not recognize their issuance.  However Trump is studying the prospect of reviving century old claims on these Chinese bonds.

(Bloomberg)

At least defaulted imperial Chinese railroad bonds don’t have negative rates

 Section: 

Trump’s New Trade War Tool Might Just Be Antique China Debt

By Tracy Alloway
Bloomberg News
Thursday, August 29, 2019

President Donald Trump’s next move in an increasingly fraught trade war with China could be one for the history books, literally. The Trump administration has been studying the unlikely prospect of reviving century-old claims on Chinese bonds sold before the founding of the communist People’s Republic.

The defaulted China bonds can be found in the attics and basements of thousands of Americans, or on EBay, where the certificates sell as collectibles for as little as a few hundred dollars each. The PRC, which succeeded the Republic of China after it replaced the imperial dynasty, has never recognized the debt, though that hasn’t stopped decades of attempts to collect payment on it.

… 

Now, with Trump ratcheting up the trade rhetoric with China, holders of the antiquarian bonds are hoping he’ll press their case, even as other parts of the U.S. government are accusing people of fraudulently selling the same paper.

Perhaps the only thing more peculiar than the story of the Chinese debt and the bid to seek payment on it is the cast of characters drawn into its orbit. President Trump, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross have met with bondholders and their representatives. Kirbyjon Caldwell, pastor of a Texas megachurch and spiritual adviser to George W. Bush, has been charged by the U.S securities regulator for selling the debt to elderly retirees. (Caldwell has pleaded innocent and maintains that the bonds are legitimate.) …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-29/trump-s-new-trade-war…

* * *

END

Von Greyerz is in my camp as to what value silver will eventually lead to.  He even fathoms a 500 per oz price.

a good read..

(Von Greyerz/KingworldNews)

Von Greyerz tells KWN why silver will outpace gold

 Section: 

10:35a ET Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Swiss gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz today tells King World News why silver will outpace gold in their new bull market and that as the gold-to-silver ratio narrows to more normal levels and the manipulated paper silver market breaks, there won’t be any metal available — at least not at current prices. Von Greyerz’s comments are posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/greyerz-says-the-price-of-silver-is-going-to-s…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Craig Hemke is also dubious of the GLD gold being “real”

A study the strange UK gold import and export trends

(Craig Hemke/Sprott)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Curious U.K. gold import-export trends

 Section: 

9:40p ET Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Craig Hemke of the TF Metals report, writing tonight at Sprott Money, contemplates the trade data showing gold suddenly flowing back from Switzerland to London, and he wonders if it doesn’t presage the collapse of the fractional-reserve gold banking system and the market rigging it long has supported with derivatives.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Curious U.K. Gold Import-Export Trends” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/curious-uk-gold-import-export-trends-cr…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Venezuela central bank gold:

Venezuela  Inventory gold June 30: 4.62 billion dollars at 1410.00 per oz =  3.3 million oz or 102.40 tonnes of which 34.13 tonnes is held at the Bank of England (and this gold is now doubt still leased out).  That leaves 68.27 tonnes left in Caracas. It won’t be long until Venezuela is totally void of gold.

(Reuters/GATA)

$1 billion decline in Venezuela’s gold reserves in first half of year

 Section: 

Corina Pons and Mayela Armas
Reuters
Tuesday, September 3, 2019

CARACAS, Venezuela — Gold reserves held by Venezuela’s central bank fell by $1 billion in the first half of 2019, official data released this week showed, amid opposition accusations that the government is selling the precious metal abroad to raise revenue in the face of U.S. sanctions.

The value of the gold bars in central bank vaults fell to $4.62 billion, down 18.5% from $5.67 billion dollars at the end of 2018 — the lowest in 75 years, according to bank data

… 

Opposition leaders have for months accused the government of President Nicolas Maduro of withdrawing gold to sell abroad as U.S. financial sanctions have crippled oil exports and blocked it from borrowing abroad.

The drop corresponds to a decline of 26.36 tons of gold from reserves, leaving the bank with about 102.40 tons. About one-third of that is held by the Bank of England.

Ruling Socialist Party officials accuse the Bank of England of refusing to repatriate the gold due to sanctions. The Bank of England has declined to comment, citing internal policy. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-gold/venezuela-gold-reserve…

* * *

END

iii) Other physical stories:

Nicholas B. proves our point that there is no gold at the comex

Follow his reasoning:

GARGANTUAN PAPER PRECIOUS METAL FRAUD NOW IN PLAIN SIGHT ON MANY FRONTS

 

An irate London motorist asked an Irish meter maid why she had issued a parking violation. She
replied “you cannot park at all on a single yellow line”. The motorist then asked as to the purpose of a
double yellow line. She replied “you cannot park at all at all on a double yellow line”. Harvey Organ
has been warning for a long time that there is virtually no precious metal at all in the COMEX
depositories. If we look at some recent data, I think we can upgrade this warning to “there is no
physical gold at all at all in the COMEX depositories”.
The CME issues daily updates on the status of gold and silver stored in its depositories. This data is not
archived, so one must not miss a single daily download if a complete record is desired. I read about
the filing of notices and the number of contracts standing for delivery and the number of contracts
stopped, but that data tends to be fragmented and disparate and moreover, based on the revelations
below, totally fictional. I then decided from 12 th July 2019 to analyze these CME daily reports to see
what the result would look like. Here is a summary of withdrawals from the CME USA depositories:
(this summary involves no less than 78 daily CME data files).

12 th July to 31 st July 2019 1 st August to 31 st Aug 2019

Registered Gold NIL NIL
Registered Silver NIL NIL
Eligible Gold 0.09 tonnes 0.241 tonnes
Eligible Silver 2,357,813 troy ounces 8,736,111 troy ounces

August 2019 was a designated active delivery month for gold and yet there was NO
delivery whatsoever of any physical gold from the registered categories at the
COMEX (the only category, per contract law, from which trading commitments can
be executed).This is hardly surprising considering that the registered inventory in
both gold and silver is no more (less in the case of silver) than 1% of the open
interest (details are provided below) What more evidence is needed that these
depositories are taking more than unsustainable strain? The one and only COMEX
‘delivery’ game in play, therefore, is comprised of transactions styled as ‘EFP’s (refer
below), and no one has any even remote visibility as to what is involved in these
gargantuan yet totally opaque transfers. Indeed one could possibly assume that the
CME releases these daily reports hoping that the reader will assume that
withdrawals of gold/silver do occur in the registered category, but just not today. All
it takes, however, is the daily discipline to download and save these reports to
ascertain the true picture. David Jensen recently stated that only 0.04% of gold
contracts in NY were settled by physical delivery; it would now seem (no, not ‘seem’
,rather it is proven) that NIL is the new norm, irrespective of any fine words about
the delivery side of the COMEX in daily action.
No wonder that every single CME report contains this disclaimer:
The information in this report is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however,
the Commodity Exchange, Inc. disclaims all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness.
This report is produced for information purposes only. (Author’s comment-what makes the weekly COT

report immune from such dire ‘health warnings’?)
(There was no movement at all in this period relating to the JP Morgan combined silver inventory of 153.7 million ounces.
This inventory is the subject of much commentary, but, in the grand scheme of things, is a bit less than three months
global mine supply (excluding Russia and China) and so is not that material-have a look at the total silver EFP volumes
below to contextualize the figures )
Let us now review what little LBMA data is disseminated (90 days in arrears). Here is the profile of
month end loco London vault holdings as up to date as possible. The December 2017/January 2018
profile is included since Harvey Organ has recorded the particulars of all reported EFP transfers from
1 st January 2018 onwards –tens of thousands of tonnes of these EFPs and virtually no meaningful
impact on this profile:

LBMA Profiles          Dec 2017                     June 2018                     April 2019          May 2019

total Loco London   7827                            7828                              7680                  7627

Less BOE                  (5321)                           (5318)                          (5019)                (4990)

Less GLD                  (848)                             (824)                            (747)                   (741)

Residual:                   1658                             1686                             1885                   1916

 

 

Total Loc Silver.         1106                             1109                           1160                    1152

less SLV                      323                              311                                312                   312

Residual:                     783                              798                                848                   840

 

There are several ETF funds in addition to GLD/SLV which warehouse their gold in loco London, so the
net residual gold at the LBMA is quite a bit less than the figure computed above, but what would be
the point of meticulous further microscopic analysis of historic data that is virtually useless in these
days of real time utilization of information. Anyway, it is always assumed that just because shares are
purchased in an ETF, then it follows that a commensurate increase in that ETF’s holding of physical
gold/silver, as mandated in its prospectus, will automatically and instantaneously follow. That is a
totally unwarranted assumption . At least the CME data enables an analysis of the full picture of
August 2019 withdrawals by 2 nd September, or just one day later because of Labour Day. Also the UK’s
own gold reserves are only 310 tonnes, so it would be a bit naïve to believe that the total gold in the
BOE vaults (segregated in the above table) has not been impaired by BIS swap transactions (which the
BIS freely acknowledges it instigates- from where else would the BIS source its ammunition?)
It is manifestly obvious that the core holdings of precious metal at the LBMA are permanently
constrained within very restricted parameters, and hence the only physical gold/silver metal that
leaves these loco London vaults is virtually equivalent to any inflows. The claims of the LBMA to
stratospheric trading volumes merely relate to propaganda associated with the churning of
undeliverable paper contracts in a zero sum game. But anyway this dribbling of delayed historic
information is no more than disinformation in the absence of any details at all in respect of the true
totality of all claims on this LBMA vaulted physical gold/silver; the only certainty is that such claims
are many multiples of the available metal.This is not surprising given that the ongoing alleged

viability of the entire global financial system is now predicated on the inexorable crescendo of
criminal fractional reserving practices, uber rehypothecation and the Ponzi scheme embodied in the
unbridled proliferation of sovereign debt.
The COMEX, on a daily basis now, serially engineers Exchange for Physical (EFP) transfers over to the
LBMA, so that the open interest does not go stratospheric .Let us, however, first refresh our minds in
respect of the open interest farce:

Open Interest (o/i) at 31st August 2019

Gold(Tonnes)                                                               Silver (000,000 ozs)

Total o/i 1,925                                                                     1,121
Registered Inv. 24                                                                 9
o/i Cover 1.225%                                                                 0.779%
Eligible inv. 236                                                                     230
Total Comex Inv. 259                                                             239
o/i Cover 13.464%                                                                 21.288%

Since 1 st January 2018 (but certainly in
existence prior to this date) the volume
of EFP transfers until 31 st August 2019 is
as follows (data from Harvey Organ):
Gold (Tonnes)                                                            Silver (000,000 ozs)

1 st Jan 2018 to 31 st Dec 2018 7,310                                 2,847
To 31 st August 2019 4,151                                                 1,550
Total for 20 months 11,461                                                  4,397

20 months EFPs/Global Annual Mine Production About 4.5 years About 6 years

The criminals have now abusively over utilized these EFPs on a daily basis to such an extent that it is
manifestly obvious today that the term ‘physical’ has been high jacked in the false and misleading
nomenclature attributable to this manipulative charade. These EFP volumes are of such magnitude
that the only certainty is that absolutely no physical metal is involved. Annual global mine supply (ex
Russia/ China) is about 200 tonnes per month in the case of gold and about 55 (could be 60) million
ounces of silver per month.
My personal interpretation of the LBMA market is as follows:
Unallocated accounts: this is a transaction whereby a fiat ‘loan’ is made to an LBMA principal, and the
transaction can be redeemed by accepting a fiat settlement only, priced on the current manipulated paper price
of gold/silver ,but certainly no physical metal is involved at all.
EFP transfers from COMEX TO LBMA: even if the terms of the underlying agreements are ‘ad hoc’ and not
standardized (who knows?), the liability for delivery is assumed by an LBMA principal, who cannot possibly
deliver ,so the counter party exacts ‘special/onerous’ terms as incentivization for not demanding physical
delivery. Please refer to Harvey Organ re the ‘conspiracy to defraud’ embodied in the (non) reporting to the
regulator by the banks in respect of these liabilities styled as “serial forward contract obligations under 14 days “
Allocated accounts: this is a transaction whereby a congenital idiot labours under the delusion that his fully
funded and numbered .995 finesse gold bars are available for delivery on demand, whereas these bars have
long ago been re-refined to .9999 finesse and shipped eastwards (aka re-hypothecation-‘‘you lose , you get
nothing ,good day sir “.) GATA and others have referred to numerous examples of such “failures to deliver”.

It was inevitable that the meagre physical inventory at the COMEX would become (indeed has long
ago become) totally inadequate to satisfy demand for physical delivery but any crisis of failure to
deliver has been temporarily suppressed by the creation of all these EFP transfers. The form of these
EFP contracts is unknown as is the identity and intentions of the counterparties. The EFP volumes
recorded above embody an orgy of excess that has completely shredded any pretext of ultimate
deliverability and yet the regulators refuse to even acknowledge that any query merits the dignity of
an acknowledgement, let alone a response. When does all this insanity reach a denouement? Perhaps
the success hitherto in suppressing the gold price became a catalyst for the hubris of consigning
positive interest rates to the dustbin of history and the euphoric philosophy that the limitless
proliferation of sovereign debt need no longer be constrained in the absence of any associated
interest burden. China and Russia have accumulated possibly as much as 30,000 tonnes of physical
gold each (unless you have personally audited the extensive network of vaults under the Kremlin and
microscopically performed the calculus relating to Chinese gold importation and domestic production
over the years, any contra opinion you may hold is as weighty as a dandelion blowing in the wind).
The end game is easy to forecast and the headline price of gold will not be set for ever by the frantic
supply of gargantuan volumes of undeliverable naked short and fraudulent paper promises. Whilst
the BOE governor (a Canadian from a country that has disposed of all its gold reserves) recently, at
Jackson Hole, made suggestions about creating a hermetic cyber seal to encapsulate fiat digital ‘air’ to
create an alternative to the fiat US$ as a reserve currency, the new One Belt One Road trading bloc
(eventually encompassing more than two thirds of the global population) will indeed re instate an
alternative, and it could not be more obvious that it will incorporate a gold standard. The pure
unadulterated insanity of Western Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is a wonderful encapsulation of
the immortal words of Tacitus; “those whom the Gods wish to destroy they first make mad”.
Post script: GATA has been in existence for at least two decades, and I have been a member for about
15 years. Initially the seminal work of Frank Veneroso heavily influenced GATA’s early writings, and
Veneroso estimated that the manipulation of the physical gold price via swaps/loans/leases etc.
would ‘hit a brick wall’ between 2011 and 2013 as physical metal supply dried up. Obviously the
manipulators managed to engineer even more suppressive techniques than were factored into
computations back in the ‘eighties’. Limitless, naked short, undeliverable, fraudulent paper gold
promises aided by incessant MSM propaganda and infinite CB fiat resources and CME/LBMA
accommodation and regulatory complicity proved to be a bit more overwhelming and formidable
than initial forecasts. August 2019 has witnessed the decimation of some serious and well established
chart resistance levels in respect of the precious metals; GATA has been predicting for about a decade
such price action (aka a commercial signal failure) that eventually will culminate in a price ‘moon shot’
as the physical market assumes its rightful hegemony . Some commentators outside GATA have even
estimated that the fractional reserving of paper promises to available physical gold/silver could even
be in a ratio of up to 500/1.

 

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.1526/ GETTING VERY PAST  7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.1529   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 27.26 POINTS OR 0.93%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 995.38 POINTS OR 3.90%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 23.98 POINTS OR 0.12%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.62/Euro RISES TO 1.1014

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.28/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106/23/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 54.65 and Brent: 58.92

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.64%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.88% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.17%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.47: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.59

3k Gold at $1536.10 silver at: 19.32   7 am est) SILVER PAST RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50//NEXT LEVEL?

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 34/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.45

3m oil into the 54 dollar handle for WTI and 58 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.23 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9845 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0843 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.64%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.49% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.99%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6768..

Global Markets Soar As Tensions Ease From Hong Kong To Italy And London

Just one day after stocks tumbled on concerns of an imminent economic recession when the US Manufacturing ISM tumbled below 50 for the first time in 3 years, all fears appeared to evaporate this morning as U.S. stock-index futures surged, erasing almost all of yesterday’s losses, boosted by hopes of a return to calm in Hong Kong combined with political developments in Italy and the U.K. S&P futures surged as much as 1% after news that Hong Kong’s chief executive plans to formally withdraw the extradition bill that had sparked widespread protests.

Stocks got a further boost out of the latest development in Italy, where the FTSE MIB Index was the best performer among local European markets, up 1.7%, after Giuseppe Conte cleared the last hurdle to become prime minister, when he got backing from supporters of the Five Star Movement in an online vote. Finally, the no-deal Brexit storm appears to be passing as lawmakers in the U.K. supported moves to block Prime Minister Boris Johnson from taking the nation out of the European Union without a deal.

As a result, global stocks rose 0.4%, as Europe rallied 1.1% and after a positive session in Asia following a report showing that growth in China’s service sector accelerated despite broader economic headwinds.

Asian equity markets eventually traded mostly higher as the headwinds from Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and DJIA snapped a 3-day win streak due to ongoing trade uncertainty and weak ISM Manufacturing, was eventually counterbalanced as data from the region provided some encouragement.

ASX 200 (-0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) were mixed with broad weakness seen across Australia’s sectors as participants digested GDP figures which showed growth slowed to its weakest since the GFC as expected and with a cut at next month’s RBA meeting seen as a coin flip.

In terms of sectors, the top-weighted financial industry was among the laggards, although gold miners bucked the trend on recent strength in the precious metal. The Japanese benchmark was indecisive but pared opening losses as it found mild support from favourable currency moves, while Hang Seng (+3.9%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.9%) were positive after Chinese Caixin Services PMI topped estimates to print a 3-month high with Hong Kong the outperformer after HK CEO Carrie Lam unexpectedly withdrew legislation that would’ve allowed extraditions to China.

The MSCI Hong Kong Index surged 5.4%, its biggest gain since October 2011. Real estate firms led the gains, with Wharf Real Estate Investment Co., New World Development Co. and Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. all up more than 9%. The Hong Kong dollar strengthened as much as 0.08%. The Hang Seng Index closed 3.9% higher.

However, gains in the mainland were restricted amid a continued PBoC liquidity drain and ongoing trade uncertainty after President Trump reiterated China will get a tougher deal if he wins the 2020 elections and was said to be angered by China’s tariff retaliation that he wanted to double the tariffs but resorted to a 5% hike after consultations. The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.9%, supported by large financial firms. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lacklustre amid the indecision in Japan and a lack of BoJ presence in the market, which saw prices retrace some of the recent gains.

Major European bourses are also higher across the board, with the Stoxx 50 +0.8%, and all industry groups in the Stoxx Europe 600 index advanced, almost erasing the gauge’s August decline as risk appetite was initially spurred by the news that Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam will formally withdraw the extradition bill, which is responsible for the ongoing protests in the region. UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.3%) marginally lags its peers amid unfavorable Sterling action to exporters after the UK Parliament approved a motion to seize control of Parliamentary time in an attempt to block a no-deal Brexit, sending . Meanwhile, Italy’s FTSE MIB (+1.5%) is led by constructive developments in Italian politics, after the 5SM’s online vote of grassroot members showed a backing for the formation of a 5SM/PD coalition, thus eliminating the risk of political limbo. Luxury-goods makers that depend on Hong Kong sales including Richemont and Swatch climbed along with stocks in Italy, where a new political coalition took shape that may be more conciliatory toward the European Union.

Italian bonds rose after members of the “anti-establishment” 5-Star Movement backed a proposed coalition with the establishment, center-left Democratic Party on Tuesday, opening the way for a new government to take office in the coming days. As a result 10-year Italian government bond yields hit 0.803%, a new record low, while Italian banks, another proxy for political risk in the country, rallied 2%.

“The next hurdle for the government will be the confidence vote in Parliament. But at the moment risks appear limited,” said Giuseppe Sersale, fund manager at Anthilia Capital.

Yields on the safe-haven 10-year German Bund rose to 0.676% after falling to a fresh record low on Tuesday, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose to 1.489% after hitting its lowest since July 2016 in the previous session in light of the weak ISM U.S. factories reading.

Political concerns and expectations of further easing measures by central banks have been squeezing bond yields globally but the return of risk appetite on Wednesday on the back of political developments in Europe and upbeat economic data from China triggered a rebound.

In FX, China’s yuan rose the most in a week as the dollar slid on weak data and the central bank set its daily fix at a level stronger than market watchers expected for an 11th day. The People’s Bank of China set the yuan’s daily reference rate at 7.0878 per dollar, stronger than the average forecast of 7.1023 by 20 traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The yuan rose as much as 0.2% against the greenback, which fell after a disappointing U.S. manufacturing report reignited concern about global economic growth. The yuan will continue to trade between 7.1 and 7.2 as long as trade tensions between China and the U.S. don’t escalate further, according to Gao Qi, a currency strategist at Scotiabank in Singapore.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped for a second day, while the pound rises for a second day amid broad dollar weakness after Prime Minister Boris Johnson began moved to trigger a snap general election to resolve the Brexit standoff. Traders were also awaiting a speech by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and the August inflation report.

In commodities, oil prices recovered some ground, helped by the positive China data and having touched their lowest in close to a month during the previous session on fears over the weakening global economy. Brent crude was up 22 cents at $58.48 a barrel, while WTI futures gained 31 cents at $54.25 at barrel.

On today’s calendar, trade balance, mortgage applications are due. Scheduled earnings include Palo Alto Networks, Slack.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.9% to 2,932.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.1% to 383.83
  • MXAP up 0.9% to 153.57
  • MXAPJ up 1.6% to 497.54
  • Nikkei up 0.1% to 20,649.14
  • Topix down 0.3% to 1,506.81
  • Hang Seng Index up 3.9% to 26,523.23
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 2,957.41
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 36,718.48
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,553.01
  • Kospi up 1.2% to 1,988.53
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.4 bps to -0.682%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.0991
  • Brent Futures up 0.5% to $58.56/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 9.1 bps to 0.535%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.7 bps to 0.126%
  • Brent Futures up 0.5% to $58.56/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,537.47
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 98.82

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • U.K. Prime Minister Johnson began moves to trigger a snap election after suffering a defeat for his Brexit strategy. Members of the House of Commons voted 328 to 301 to take a first step toward forcing the prime minister to delay Brexit by three months
  • Economic situation with U.S. manufacturing contracting amounts to a “global shock” that warrants an aggressive step by the Fed at its meeting in two weeks, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard says
  • Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said the U.S. economy remains “relatively strong” despite clearly heightened risks, leaving him unconvinced the central bank needs to cut interest rates this month
  • ECB policy maker Francois Villeroy de Galhau signaled skepticism over the need for renewed asset purchases while leaving open the question of whether he’d still back a stimulus package that includes them.
  • President Donald Trump sought to prod China into doing a trade deal before the U.S. presidential election in November 2020, or face even more difficult negotiations during his potential second term
  • French Finance Minster Bruno Le Mairemet with U.S. authorities in Washington as part of a plan to offer Iran a $15 billion economic lifeline and rescue the Iran nuclear accord
  • Economists are downgrading their forecasts for economic growth in China to below a level seen as necessary for the Communist Party to meet its own goals in time for its centenary in 2021
  • China softened toward Hong Kong’s protesters, saying peaceful demonstrations were allowed under the law, even as it ruled out a fundamental demand for direct democracy

Asian equity markets eventually traded mostly higher as the headwinds from Wall St, where the S&P 500 and DJIA snapped a 3-day win streak due to ongoing trade uncertainty and weak ISM Manufacturing, was eventually counterbalanced as data from the region provided some encouragement. ASX 200 (-0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) were mixed with broad weakness seen across Australia’s sectors as participants digested GDP figures which showed growth slowed to its weakest since the GFC as expected and with a cut at next month’s RBA meeting seen as a coin flip. In terms of sectors, the top-weighted financial industry was among the laggards, although gold miners bucked the trend on recent strength in the precious metal. The Japanese benchmark was indecisive but pared opening losses as it found mild support from favourable currency moves, while Hang Seng (+3.9%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.9%) were positive after Chinese Caixin Services PMI topped estimates to print a 3-month high with Hong Kong the outperformer after HK Chief Exeutive Carrie Lam withdrew the controversial Extradition Bill. However, gains in the mainland were restricted amid a continued PBoC liquidity drain and ongoing trade uncertainty after President Trump reiterated China will get a tougher deal if he wins the 2020 elections and was said to be angered by China’s tariff retaliation that he wanted to double the tariffs but resorted to a 5% hike after consultations. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lacklustre amid the indecision in Japan and a lack of BoJ presence in the market, which saw prices retrace some of the recent gains.

Top Asian News

  • Traders Fixate on Trump’s Twitter Everywhere, Except in China
  • China Foreign Ministry Doesn’t Comment on H.K. Bill Withdrawal
  • Anil Ambani’s Reliance Naval Facing Cash Crunch Amid Debt Revamp
  • Miners Offer Some Tactical Opportunities in Late Cycle, DB Says

Major European bourses are higher across the board [Eurostoxx 50 +0.8%] as risk appetite was initially spurred amid source reports (later confirmed) that Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam is to formally withdraw the extradition bill today, which is responsible for the ongoing protests in the region. UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.3%) marginally lags its peers amid unfavourable Sterling action to exporters after the UK Parliament approved a motion to seize control of Parliamentary time in an attempt to block a no-deal Brexit. Meanwhile, Italy’s FTSE MIB (+1.5%) is led by constructive developments in Italian politics, after the 5SM’s online vote of grassroot members showed a backing for the formation of a 5SM/PD coalition, thus eliminating the risk of political limbo. Sectors are in a sea of green with substantial outperformance in consumer discretionary names as luxury stocks soar on optimistic Hong Kong news. Kering (+3.7%), Richemont (+3.5%), Swatch (+3.2%) all reside near the top of the Stoxx 600. In terms of individual movers, Thales (+6.4%) shares spiked higher at the open after posting an improvement in earnings, meanwhile Mediaset (+2.1%) shareholders approved the merger of its Italian and Spanish units to compete with the likes of Netflix. On the flip side, Barratt Developments (-1.4%) shares fell post-earnings, whilst Deutsche Telekom (-0.1%) is subdued amid reports that Illinois has joined the lawsuit aimed at blocked a merger between T-Mobile (of which Deutsche Telekom owns 63% of) and Sprint.

Top European News

  • Germany Cabinet Aims to Reduce Glyphosate Usage in Coming Years
  • U.K. on Course for Recession as Services Growth Stagnates
  • U.K.’s Super-Rich Prepare to Flee From Corbyn Rule, Not Brexit
  • European Car-Parts Makers Rise as JPMorgan Sees Year-End Rally

In FX, the Pound remains at the top of the G10 ranks after MPs voted in favour of a no Brexit deal blocking motion last night, with Cable breaching technical resistance in the form of the 21 DMA at 1.2144 and Eur/Gbp extending its reversal through 0.9100 and pivoting 0.9050. However, Sterling lost some momentum after the UK services PMI completed a set of misses vs consensus and IHS/Markit conjects that the slowdown in the sector combined with more pronounced contraction in manufacturing and construction indicates that GDP is likely to slip 0.1% q/q in Q3. If confirmed this would mean a technical recession and Cable is waning just ahead of 1.2200 having eclipsed Monday’s 1.2175 high and Fib resistance around the same level, or 1.2176 to be precise.

  • AUD/NZD/EUR/SEK – The next best majors and all benefiting from further Greenback weakness post yesterday’s sub-50 US manufacturing ISM (DXY down to 98.571) on top of a broad upturn in risk sentiment on the aforementioned positive Brexit developments, Italy’s 5-Star approving its tie-up with the PD party and Hong Kong’s CE Lam withdrawing the extradition bill. Aud/Usd just pulled up shy of the 0.6800 mark with the added impetus of China’s Caixin services/composite PMIs surpassing expectations and not too ruffled by Aussie GDP data confirming forecasts for a slowdown in growth to GFC levels. Nzd/Usd continues to lag around 0.6350 as the Aud/Nzd cross holds above 1.0650, but Eur/Usd is back on the 1.1000 handle following a run of firmer than expected Eurozone services PMIs and ahead of more ECB speakers. Nevertheless, the Swedish Krona is outperforming on the back of an even stronger services PMI print and not perturbed by Nordea revising its Riksbank rate outlook from unchanged through 2020 to a 25 bp ease in December this year on the eve of this month’s policy meeting, with Eur/Sek straddling 10.7500.
  • CAD/CHF – Also firmer vs the Greenback, but a bit more contained as the Loonie faces resistance around 1.3300 in the run up to Canadian trade data and the BoC, while the Franc is ever wary that too much appreciation will not be tolerated and is fading into 0.9840 with Eur/Chf meandering between 1.0825-60.
  • JPY – Safe-haven unwinding has undermined the Yen, to an extent, as Usd/Jpy rebounds from sub-106.00 yet again, but hefty option expiries layered from 106.30-40, through 106.50-60 to 106.75-85 (5.5 bn in total) could keep the headline pair in check from a high circa 106.30 so far.
  • EM – Broad gains vs the Greenback, with the Rand and Lira still leading the way, but perhaps some respite in store for the Ars in wake of an upgrade from Fitch to CC from RD for Argentina late on Tuesday.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures are higher in early EU trade as risk sentiment was bolstered by the aforementioned developments in Hong Kong with the former back above the 54/bbl level and the latter hovering around 58.50/bbl. News-flow for the complex has been light, although UBS downgraded its global growth forecasts to 2.5% from 3.2% annualised, which coincided with downside in prices at the time. Elsewhere, with Hurricane Dorian drifting away from the Gulf of Mexico, eyes turned to Tropical Storm Fernand (formerly known as cyclone Seven) which is located around 130km SE of La Pesca, Mexico. NHC stated that the tropical storm is moving slowly Westward, and once inland, rapid weakening is expected before the storm dissipates on Thursday. As a reminder, API crude inventories will be released today due to Monday’s US Labour Day holiday. Turning to metals, gold has thus far failed to benefit from a weaker Buck as the current risk appetite spurred some outflow in safe-haven assets. The risk-on sentiment has also driven gains in copper prices as the red metal reclaimed 2.5/lb to the upside following three consecutive days of losses.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -6.2%
  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $53.4b deficit, prior $55.2b deficit
  • 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 16.8m, prior 16.8m

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

So today in the UK we have another Battle Royale in store between two warring factions with neither side prepared to compromise, back down, give way or show any signs of desire to engage with the opposition. Indeed, it could come down to the toss of a coin as to who wins. Yes, in Manchester the oldest international rivalry in sport recommences with the 4th test in a 5 test Ashes series between England and Australia. For those uninitiated in the charms of Cricket, the last game was the equivalent of your favourite football team scoring 5 times in injury time to win the game 5-4. Fortunately, England were that team and my shouts of jubilation could be heard in Australia.

It was Ashes to Ashes in terms of the manufacturing sector yesterday as the US industrial sector effectively joined the majority of the rest the world in contraction. If that wasn’t enough to keep an eye on, we also saw negative trade remarks from Mr Trump, rumoured ECB stimulus headlines, and more Brexit turmoil. So welcome to September and a microcosm of what the rest of the year could look like. Those factors combined meant it wasn’t the best of first days of the month for US equities after the holiday with the S&P 500 down -0.69% and DOW and NASDAQ down -1.08% and -1.11% respectively. Elsewhere US HY credit spreads were +7.7bps wider, with HY energy spreads leading the move (+12.5bps) as oil dropped -2.09%.

Treasuries rallied with 10y yields hitting 1.441% at one stage before closing at 1.473%, albeit still -2.4bps on the day. Remember that the all-time low is 1.358%. The curve edged back into positive territory (+0.6bps) though as 2y yields dropped -4.0bps. The front-end rally was driven by heightened expectations for Fed easing, as the market now prices 64bps of cuts before year-end and another 59bps in 2020. That is 5bps and 7bps of more cuts than before the poor data. For the meeting later this month, the market fully prices in a 25bps cut, plus a 20% chance of larger 50bps cut. St. Louis Fed President Bullard argued last night in favour of a 50bps cut,though he is known as the most dovish member of the committee. Perhaps more interestingly, Boston Fed President Rosengren, who dissented against the July cut, opened the door to a rate cut later this year if the data deteriorates further.

That weak US data that we referred to at the top was the August ISM manufacturing reading which dropped 2.1pts to 49.1 (vs. 51.3 expected). That’s the first sub-50 reading since August 2016 and the weakest since January 2016. The details weren’t much more pleasing on the eye with employment (47.4 from 51.7) and new orders (47.2 from 50.8) also slumping. In fact the latter is the weakest since June 2012 although even more eye catching was the new export orders component hitting 43.3 and the lowest since the depths of the financial crisis.

So pretty ugly data and the damage in markets really came after the data. Prior to that President Trump tweeted that the US “is doing very well in our negotiations in China” and that “while I am sure they would love to be dealing with a new administration…think what happens to China when I win. Deal would get much tougher”. In a separate tweet he also said that “the EU & all treat us very unfairly on trade also” and that “will change”.

This morning in Asia markets are largely trading higher with the Hang Seng (+1.18%), Shanghai Comp (+0.22%) and Kospi (+0.15%) all making advances. The Nikkei is trading down (-0.06%) but is rallying back towards flat for the day. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.34% this morning. As for overnight data releases, China’s August Caixin services PMI came in at 52.1 (vs. 51.7 expected) while the composite read was at 51.6 (vs. 50.9 last month). Japan’s final August services PMI came in one tenth lower than initial read at 53.3 while the composite PMI was two tenths above initial read at 51.9. In other overnight news, the BoJ board member Goushi Kataoka, a known dove, said that the central bank shouldn’t wait for changes in data to back up the case for more stimulus while adding that the deepening of the BOJ’s negative short-term rate is his preferred option.

Onto Brexit, and the government was defeated last night by 328 to 301, quite a wide margin, and now have to cede control of today’s parliamentary business where a similar majority are now highly likely to vote to request an extension to Brexit and put anti no-deal legislation in place. It is assumed that they will pass such legislation very quickly but in these unprecedented times there is some speculation of various forms of filibustering in the Lords so take nothing for granted. Ahead of the vote, PM Johnson also lost his majority yesterday as Phillip Lee defected to the Lib Dems. Meanwhile, after yesterday’s defeat in the House of Commons, PM Johnson retaliated by asking his officials to expel the 21 Conservative rebels, including former Chancellor Philip Hammond, who defied him and voted against the bill.

Immediately after the vote, PM Johnson said that if the motion to extend Brexit passes, he would move to call a new election. The main opposition leaders, including Jeremy Corbyn and Ian Blackford, said that they would entertain the possibility of an election as long as the legislation preventing no-deal is passed first. So that vote will be the first and principle focus today. If Mr Johnson wants an election on October 14th, I think (and I reserve the right to be wrong so please don’t hold me to it) that it needs to be legislated by Monday at the latest. So if correct it may be in his interest to allow the anti no-deal legislation through and then move quickly to call for an election.

There are a number of mechanisms to call an early election but all of them are complicated at the moment. The first, which was used in the 2017 vote, is that 2/3rds of MPs vote in favour of one, which would be difficult to achieve if a sizeable minority of MPs see the election as a vehicle for a no-deal exit so that is unlikely to work until said legislation is passed. The second is that a vote of no confidence is passed in the government by a simple majority in the House of Commons, and no alternative government can be formed that commands the confidence of MPs within 14 days. Could Mr Johnson express a vote of no-confidence in himself and could the opposition reject this assertion? Such an outcome is highly unlikely but it would fit in well with the ongoing narrative of strange and unprecedented occurrences.

The final way it could be done would be by a simple majority of both Houses of Parliament passing an amendment to the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act or another piece of legislation that simply writes into law that the Act does not apply for the next election. Lawyers will be busy in Westminster today but the central case is that anti no deal legislation gets passed and then an election gets agreed for October 14th. It’s very fluid though.

With fears of a no-deal exit rising, sterling fell to $1.196 yesterday morning, its lowest level since October 2016 before recovering to trade a touch higher at $1.208 and is trading up +0.18% this morning at 1.2104.Ten-year gilt yields also fell to a record low of 0.34% at one point yesterday before closing down -0.9bps at 0.41%.

While the situation remains incredibly fluid, it’s worth noting that yesterday DB’s Oli Harvey published an update (link here ) on the situation in which he emphasises that should a general election be confirmed for October, he would turn neutral on sterling, having been very negative over the last six months. Oli sees a pre-31 October election as the least worst of all scenarios this week, reducing the prospect of a no deal Brexit. This is because of the three central outcomes he identifies, two – either a large Conservative majority or a remain coalition government – are more likely than not to lead to an orderly Brexit or no Brexit at all. The other outcome, that of a narrow Conservative majority/Brexit coalition is what Oli describes as the worst outcome for a deal, since the government will be vulnerable to MPs who favour leaving without a deal.

In other news, with the next policy meeting round the corner, right on cue we had the usual ECB sources story from the MNI yesterday. The story essentially endorsed consensus expectations for a broad based package from the ECB and while it didn’t contain anything new in terms of the components of package, it did have several sources saying there will be QE2. Later in the day Reuters reported that policymakers are leaning towards a rate cut, tiering and reinforced guidance. The headline suggested that committees are preparing a package but the exact quantum is still up in the air. Finally, we also had public remarks from the governors of the national central banks in France and Estonia. France’s Villeroy, a centrist on the committee, gave balanced comments, saying that inflation is still too low but declining to endorse the need for new QE. Estonia’s Muller sent a similar message, saying “I don’t think we have a strong case for reactivating QE now.” The earlier ECB related headlines caused a small bounce in the euro and for bond yields although it was fairly short lived. In the end the euro ended flat while 10y Bunds were -0.4bps lower at -0.706%. In equities the STOXX 600 ended down -0.23%. It’s worth noting that (relatively) new ECB Chief Economist Lane is due to speak today so that will be worth keeping an eye out for.

Staying with Europe, Bloomberg has reported overnight that Five Star supporters voted by 79.3% yesterday in favor of Conte’s attempt to form an alliance between Five Star and the center-left Democratic Party. This paves the way for Prime Minister-designate Giuseppe Conte to form Italy’s next government. Conte is now due to bring a list of ministers and a government program today to President Sergio Mattarella. A new administration could likely be sworn in later this week, with a first confidence vote in the lower house by the weekend and in the Senate early next week.

As for other US data yesterday, the August Markit manufacturing PMI was revised up 0.4 points to 50.3. That took the index out of contractionary territory, but it remained the lowest reading of the cycle. Construction spending came in at 0.1% mom for July, less than the 0.3% expected, though June’s figure was revised up a touch. Overall, today’s data sent the Atlanta Fed’s Q3 GDP estimate down to 1.7%, its lowest reading yet.

Finally the only data worth flagging in Europe yesterday was the July PPI print which came in-line at +0.2% mom while the construction PMI in the UK printed at a lowly 45.0 for August and well below expectations for 46.5. Luckily we’ve got Brexit to overshadow the data for now.

Looking at the day ahead now, the focus this morning will be on the remaining August services and composite PMIs in Europe while the only other release of note is July retail sales for the Euro Area. In the US this afternoon we’ll get the July trade balance and August vehicle sales data. Meanwhile, it’s a very busy day for central bank speak. This morning we’re due to hear from the ECB’s Lane in London while in the afternoon and into the evening we’ve got the BoE’s Carney, ECB’s Mersch and Guindos and the Fed’s Williams, Kaplan, Bowman, Bullard, Kashkari and Evans all speaking at various events. The BoC policy decision is also due today.

 

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN UP 27.26 POINTS OR 0.93%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 995.38 POINTS OR 3.90%   /The Nikkei closed UP 23.98 POINTS OR 0.12%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .31%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.1526 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.1526 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1529 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

By goodness:  Markit’s Hong Kong PMI collapsed to a massive contraction from 51.8 down to 40.8 due to the chaos in HK.

(zerohedge)

Meanwhile, In Hong Kong…

If the nightly images of water cannons and molotov cocktails were not enough to spark fears about the state of Hong Kong’s economy, tonight’s almost unprecedented collapse in IHS Markit Hong Kong Purchasing Manager’s Index should slap reality back to the top of mind.

The whole economy PMI crashed to 40.8, the lowest reading since Feb 2009.

Business activity fell at the steepest rate since the end of 2008, reflecting a sharper decline in new order intakes. Pessimism spread to more firms, with business confidence slumping to its lowest on record.

 

“The rates of decline in output, new orders and export sales accelerated sharply in August, with the only other time that the PMI survey has recorded a steeper downturn, in its more than two decades of history, been during the SARS epidemic in 2003 and the global financial crisis in 2008-2009.”

Nearly half of survey respondents reported reduced Chinese demand, citing the ongoing US-China trade dispute, a sharp depreciation in the renminbi and large-scale protests as reasons.

Commenting on the latest survey results, Bernard Aw, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, said:

“The latest PMI data reveal a Hong Kong economy flirting with recession in the third quarter as business activity is increasingly aggravated by protest-related paralysis.

“The executive authorities of the Hong Kong SAR recently unveiled an economic stimulus plan to support flagging growth momentum, but any further economic weakness will mean policymakers are likely to consider larger stimulus measures.

Finally, Aw warns, “the survey is now broadly indicative of the economy contracting at an annual rate of around 4.0-4.5%.”

A bloodbath that we are sure China will be perfectly ok with.

end

Lam unexpectedly withdraws her hated extradition bill.  However that is one only of the 5 demands.  Also it is not Lam that is controlling the purse strings in Hong Kong but Mainland China.  Let us see if protests stop

(zerohedge)

 

Hong Kong’s Lam Unexpectedly Withdraws Hated Extradition Bill; Stocks Soar

Following controversial reports that Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam would have left office if Beijing would have allowed it, the city-state’s chief executive surprised her detractors on Wednesday by announcing that she would formally withdraw the hated extradition bill.

Lam said the bill would be formally withdrawn as soon as Wednesday night (local time).

Well, the news wasn’t entirely unexpected: In a report published earlier in the day, the South China Morning Post previewed the news. Still, many remained skeptical.

Killing the extradition bill is only one of the five demands articulated by protesters, so it’s unlikely that meeting this one demand would end the protests entirely. But it will certainly help take the wind out of the movement’s sails. Lam didn’t offer any indication that she would meet the other four demands.

Lam met with senior city leaders early Wednesday in the US (late in the afternoon Hong Kong time) before announcing her decision. Over the weekend, protesters, who have been reduced to a core group of dedicated marchers from the  nearly 2 million people who took to the streets for a peaceful march early in the summer, engaged in some of the most violent struggles yet, clashing with police and vandalizing train stations and engaging in scuffles with the police.

Still: “This gesture to formally withdraw is a bid to cool down the atmosphere,” one source said. Another source added that the complete withdrawal of the extradition bill is the easiest way to turn down ongoing tensions.

Lam started to change her mind on the extradition bill two weeks ago after a meeting with city leaders: “The chief executive started to change her mind after meeting with 19 city leaders two weeks ago. She heeded their views on how to de-escalate the tensions.”

Aside from pulling the extradition bill, protesters have asked for the government to set up a commission to investigate police conduct during the protests, grant amnesty to those who have been arrested, stop describing the protests as “riots,” and restart the city’s stalled process of political reforms. They have also pushed for Lam to resign.

Earlier in the summer, Lam declared the withdrawal bill “dead”, but refused to formally remove it from the agenda. Unsatisfied with this, nearly 2 million peaceful demonstrators took to the streets the following day.

On social media, the initial reaction to reports of the bill’s withdrawal was skepticism, as few were convinced that Lam will follow through.

But markets have thrown caution to the wind, and Hong Kong stocks rallied sharply on the news, posting one of their best, if not the best, one day performance since the protests began.

END

In the words of Bill Blain:

“it is hard to put back the tear gas into the bottle”.. experts doubt the Lam’s big concession will pacify the pro democracy protest movement and thus expect more protests this weekend!

(zerohedge)

“They Will Not Be Satisfied”: Experts Doubt Lam’s Big Concession Will Pacify Pro-Democracy Protest Movement

Offering her first concession since protests began three months ago, Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam on Wednesday said she would scrap the hated extradition bill that had initially galvanized the protest movement when the HK government tried to fast-track it this spring.

If passed, the bill would have allowed the Chinese government to demand the extradition of people from Hong Kong with near-impunity, effectively exposing Hong Kongers to Communist Party-controlled courts.

However, many activists are now saying that this gesture is too little, too late – and that the movement has evolved from its opposition to the extradition bill to supporting broader pro-democracy themes.

Before Lam had even finished her speech, pro-democracy activists were already complaining that her concession was too little, too late. And the endorsement of Global Times editor Hu XiJin didn’t do much to help that perception, since he has functioned like the voice of Beijing since the demonstrations began.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

Support the Hong Kong SAR government to withdraw the extradition bill. I hope this will be a new starting point. I also call on Western media and politicians to support a turnaround in the situation of Hong Kong. https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1169188716797030401 

Global Times

@globaltimesnews

BREAKING: #HK chief exec #CarrieLam announced on Wednesday to formally withdraw the extradition bill in an apparent move aimed at ending months of violence in the city. #香港

View image on Twitter

After a long summer of protest, nobody wants to be seen kowtowing to Beijing. Especially after all of the arrests, violence and blood that has been spilled in the streets of the special autonomous region.

“Hong Kong people will not be satisfied, which is absolutely reasonable after three months of blood, sweat and tears,” said Alvin Yeung, an opposition lawmaker.

Of course, it will take a few weeks before we can gauge whether Lam and her backers in Beijing successfully appeased the protest movement. While the market rallied the most in ten months on the news, signifying extreme optimism, analysts worried that the gains would be short-lived.

“It’s positive but may only provide a temporary solution,” said Stephen Innes, Asia Pacific Market Strategist at AxiTrader. “I can’t see Hong Kongers going merrily along. I think the divide runs deeper.”

More critically, if Hong Kongers sense that the protests are working, it could inspire more people to take to the streets to participate in another massive, peaceful march.

That would be one way of letting Beijing know that Communist Party leaders will need to meet more of the movement’s demands if the Party wants to peacefully celebrate 70 years of Communist Party rule next month.

While addressing the protesters other demands on Wednesday, Lam mostly downplayed their significance. She said she typically tried to avoid using words like ‘riot’ to describe the protests. She also insisted that she couldn’t grant amnesty to protesters arrested during the demonstrations. And although she pledged to launch a review of the government’s handling of the protests, her promises fell short of the ‘independent commission’ to examine abusive police conduct that protesters have demanded.

“Our response to the five demands have been made with full consideration to different constraints and circumstances,” she said. “I recognize these may not be able to address all the grievances of people in society.”

Protesters weren’t pleased. Soon after it ended, users of online forum LIHKG, a popular sounding board and organizing platform for demonstrators, slammed Lam’s address. Joshua Wong, the student protest leader who was recently arrested over his participation in the rallies, warned that a crackdown was coming: “Whenever there are signs of sending a palm branch, they always come with a far tighter grip on exercising civil rights.”

More than 1,000 protesters have been arrested so far as they hold running battles with police. The most recent clashes last weekend saw protesters set a massive roadblock on fire in central Hong Kong and hurl around 100 Molotov cocktails at police, who responded with pepper spray and water cannons.

And since Lam’s biggest concession so far comes after a day of radical violence, it reinforces the notion that more extreme actions by the protesters will yield more concrete results.

Protesters’ most difficult demand – universal suffrage – can only be granted by Beijing.

But many recognized that this was a big ask – and that Beijing never would allow itself to look like it was caving to the protesters.

“Genuine democracy in Hong Kong is not on the agenda, and will not be on the agenda,” said Steve Tsang, director the China Institute at London’s School of Oriental and African Studies and the author of several books on Hong Kong. “They are not just going to get softer and softer and softer. Xi Jinping cannot afford to allow the Hong Kong protesters to win against the Communist Party.”

In summary: The protesters aren’t simply going to put down their Molotov cocktails. It’s not over yet.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

What a mess!! The pound surges as BoJo prepares for a snap election.  However he needs the Liberals and he may not get their support as they may be decimated on anew election

(zerohedge)

 

Pound Surges As BoJo Prepares To Trigger Snap Elections

After last night’s humiliating defeat, Prime Minister Boris Johnson is preparing for the next step in his battle to take the UK out of the EU with or without a deal. And that is: moving to trigger a snap general election that will leave everything – including his future as PM – up to chance, according to BBG.

The pound extended its gains and rose more than 1% on the news, as short-term names unwound shorts to trigger stops, while the British currency also benefited from broad-based dollar weakness.

GBP/USD gained as much as 1.2% to trade at 1.2220, remaining near the day’s highs as the market priced in lower chances of a no-deal Brexit on Oct. 31; U.K. 10-year gilt yields climbed 9bps to 0.49%.

“The move coincided with a selloff in short-dated GBP vols and may be accentuated by the latest USD weakness across the board,” said Valentin Marinov, a strategist at Credit Agricole.

On Tuesday, Johnson lost his ruling majority when one Tory MP defected to join the LibDems. He then moved to expel 21 rebels from the conservative party after MPs voted to take control of Parliament’s agenda to try and stop Johnson from presiding over a no deal exit.

As BBG put it – politely – in the three years since the Brexit vote, the turmoil and chaos in British government has increased dramatically.

Still, Johnson’s plan could again backfire: He needs the support of the opposition Labour Party for an election. It’s very possible that he won’t get it (though it’s equally likely that, sensing the opportunity to wrest control of government from Johnson and the Tories, Labour would happily oblige).

On Wednesday, Johnson’s opponents will seize control of the Commons agenda and put forward a measure that would force the PM to seek another Brexit delay until Jan. 31. Johnson has slammed his critics and opponents, accusing them of “wrecking any deal that we might be able to strike” with the EU.

end
If Corbyn wins, the UK is preparing for a mass exodus of the richest taxpayer as well as Jewish people as he is anti Semitic
(zerohedge)

UK Braces For Exodus Of Richest Taxpayers If Corbyn Becomes Next PM

As Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces the prospect of his rule being cut short, wealthy Britons have a message for Johnson’s most likely successor: A ‘no deal’ Brexit makes no difference to them. But if Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn becomes PM, they will flee in droves, taking their money with them.

Johnson faces a new battle in the Commons after his first vote as PM saw him lose to rebel Tories and opposition MPs who object to a no-deal Brexit. Rebels voted 328-301 to take control of the agenda, allowing them to bring forward a bill requesting a Brexit delay.

In response, the PM has threatened to call a general election (of course, he would then need 2-3rds of lawmakers in the Commons to support an election for one to move forward), the BBC reports.

The chairman of one Swiss asset manager who helps wealthy Britons shield their money in tax havens warned that if Johnson is defeated in a snap election, and Corbyn becomes the next PM, it could trigger a wave of capital outflows as the wealthy scramble to move their assets (and themselves) out of the country.

“It’s clear there would be a major outflow of high net-worth individuals and families if a Corbyn government was to come to power,” said Chris Kalin, group chairman of Zurich-based Henley & Partners Group.

“This is the big fear, not Brexit or even a no-deal Brexit. That doesn’t make any difference to our clients.”

Looking back over the past few decades, tax rates for the UK’s top bracket have consistently risen under Labour.

Labour’s insistence on ‘financial transparency’ has led to discussions about the prospects for a new wealth transparency law that would require anybody with more than £1 million to file publicly available tax returns. Such a law would be a step on the road toward an Elizabeth Warren-style wealth tax, one of the agenda items that Corbyn has promised. He has also promised to raise income taxes for everybody earning more than £80,000, which would impact a large swath of working Britons.

To help restore the country’s property market, Labour has called for higher taxes on unoccupied homes, which are typically owned by the wealthy. It’s also planning to reform inheritance tax laws by adding a tax on real estate owned by foreigners, which would hit billionaires particularly hard, Bloomberg reports.

Labour has also promised to undo some of the privatization wave enacted by Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Energy, water and rail services would be among the first industries to be re-nationalized. The Royal Mail would also be re-nationalized under Corbyn’s plan (not to be confused wit the Daily Mail).

Labour has vowed to undo the privatizations of key industries undertaken by Margaret Thatcher, the late Conservative Prime Minister. Corbyn is committed to re-nationalizing the energy, water, and rail sectors, as well as Royal Mail Plc. That could cost investors as the government may compensate stockholders on a book value basis rather than market value. Virgin Trains, owned by billionaires Richard Branson and Brian Souter, has a U.K. rail franchise set to expire in the next six months, but the firm announced plans this year for a new service from 2021 between Liverpool and London.

Under Corbyn, Labour has moved away from the centrism of Tony Blair’s “New Labour” and toward a platform that doesn’t shy away from using phrases like ‘redistribution of wealth’. As it stands, the Corbyn has said he would move swiftly to pass legislation forcing companies with more than 250 employees to direct 10% of their equity stake to an “inclusive ownership fund” controlled by workers. The party is also readying a plan to force real-estate investors to sell apartments to tenants at below-market prices.

Fortunately, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor has stressed that the party won’t implement capital controls if it wins power, even if this triggers a significant devaluation in the pound. Hence, as a precaution, some super-wealthy families are already opening accounts in places like Monaco and Malta, which welcome the rich with low tax rates. Some have even looked into using a private aircraft to commute to the UK for business should they decide to leave.

The risks of an exodus by wealthy Britons became a focus last year when Jim Ratcliffe, founder of global chemicals manufacturer Ineos AG and (at the time) the UK’s richest person, decided to move to Monaco along with two other billionaire Ineos directors, to avoid higher taxes.

And if Johnson’s gambit fails and he’s forced to turn over the reins to Corbyn, many more will likely follow in Ratcliffe’s footsteps.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey

Now Turkey states that it may need nuclear weapons.. With Erdogan in the helm I doubt very much that the West will allow him to obtain this

(zerohedge)

Erdogan Stuns By Saying Turkey May Need Nuclear Weapons

This is a first: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday suggested Turkey should seek nuclear weapons in comments sure to gain Washington’s attention at a moment NATO’s most controversial member is busy deploying Russia’s S-400 anti-air defense system.

During a televised speech in which he ranted against rivals and moderates within his own Justice and Development Party (AKP) Erdogan said, “They say we can’t have nuclear tipped missiles though some have them. This, I can’t accept,” according to Turkey’s Ahval news.

“I don’t accept this,” he said. “The US and Russia have them. Every developing nation has them.”

 

Image via Express UK

He pointed out that Turkey had in the past been unfairly denied weapons deals by allied nations, which led to Turkish ingenuity in producing its own weaponry.

Erdogan also reportedly invoked Israel’s ‘unofficial’ or undeclared nuclear stockpile during his speech, saying that because Israel has nuclear weapons, “no one can touch them”.

Turkey is a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty of 1980, and further signed the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, which bans all nuclear tests for any purpose.

His comments were part of a broader theme attacking “rebels” within AKP who are seeking to possibly establish new political parties as “weakening” and splintering the nation.

Ragıp Soylu

@ragipsoylu

WOW

Erdogan hints that Turkey may need to obtain nuclear warheads,

“Some have nuclear missiles, [but they tell us] we shouldn’t have nuclear missiles.

I don’t accept this.

US and Russia have them. Every developing nation has them”

Embedded video

258 people are talking about this

In reference to Turkey’s deeply controversial reception of the first round of S-400 components, and with the second procurement currently in process of delivery, Erdogan said, “This of course adds a completely different power to our defense system. Whatever we have done in the past 18 years has been for the people of Turkey.”

Ironically Erdogan had previously been on record as blasting nuclear armed countries as unjustly “threatening the world” with their powerful weapons. The past comments were made as he reacted to the May 2018 White House withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal.

“Those who have more than 15,000 nuclear warheads are currently threatening the world,” he said at the time. The vast majority of the world’s nukes belong to Russia and the United States.

Though not verified, over the past years there have been occasional reports from Turkish journalists alleging Erdogan has sought to expand Turkey’s arsenal to include atomic bombs.

6.Global Issues

Jim Bianco is a very smart cookie.  He outlines why negative interest rates throughout the globe threatens the financial system.  Binaco states that negative interest rates punish banks for loaning out money.  If you plug a negative interest rate into pension models, it causes the entire pension system to be unfunded.  Bianco is stating exactly what Alasdair Macleod said: negative interest rates causes dollars to go into backwardation and by doing so causes all commodities including gold and silver to go into backwardation..which of course will price our two precious metals to the moon.

(zerohedge)

“The End Is Unforeseeable” – Negative Interest Rates Threaten The Entire Financial System

Authored by Jim Bianco, op-ed via Bloomberg.com,

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan recently said he wouldn’t be surprised if yields on U.S. bonds turned negative and if they do, it wouldn’t be “that big a of a deal.”

That seems to be a sentiment widely held in central banking circles these days, but it’s wrong. Negative interest rates represent a threat to the financial system.

To understand why, let’s start with the existing fractional reserve banking system, which is more than a century old. For every dollar that goes into a bank, some set amount (usually about 10%) must go into a reserve account to be overseen by the central bank. The rest is either lent out or used to buy securities.

In other words, the fractional reserve banking system is leveraged to interest rates. This works when rates are positive. Loans are made and securities bought because they will generate income for the bank. In a negative rate environment, the bank must pay to hold loans and securities. In other words, banks would be punished for providing credit, which is the lifeblood of an economy. As German bankers recently explained to the European Central Bank:

We already have a devastating interest rate situation today, the end of which is unforeseeable,” Peter Schneider, who represents public-sector savings banks in the southern German state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, said on Wednesday. “If the ECB aggravates this course, that would hit not only the entire financial sector hard, but especially savers.

And to make matters worse, the German government is considering outlawing negative deposit rates. In a negative rate world, forcing rates on short-dated debt to zero would keep the yield curve permanently inverted. The fractional reserve banking system cannot operate properly in this environment.

Valuation models are another area of finance that need to be tweaked in a negative rate environment. Nobel prizes have been awarded to economists that developed concepts such as the efficient frontier, the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Black-Scholes option pricing model. But when a negative value is assumed for the risk-free rate in these types of models, fair value results shoot off toward infinity. With trillions of securities and derivatives dependent on these models, valuation is critical.

In a similar vein, pensions use a discount interest rate to determine if they are properly funded. If one plugs in a negative interest rate as the discount rate, all pensions would technically be underfunded. The only pensions that would be properly funded would be those with assets exceeding expected liabilities. No pension is set up this way. Negative rates on fixed-income securities also means there is no way pension funds can ever generate enough income to meet their obligations.

When repurchase, or repo, rates go negative, lenders of securities must pay rather than receive income. Why would anyone lend out their securities if they also must pay for the privilege of doing so? Repos are the basic plumbing of the financial system, enabling the trade and settlement of securities transactions. If this market becomes dysfunctional, it is akin to the pipes in your walls leaking.

To see the results of low or negative rate environments, look no further than the euro zone and Japan. They account for 87% of the negative rates worldwide. Europe is essentially in recession with negative GDP in Italy, Germany and elsewhere. Its banking system is a mess, thanks to negative rates. As the chart below shows, European banks are trading at the lowest levels in more than 30 years.

Japan is not doing much better. Economists are projecting negative GDP in the fourth quarter and the Japanese banking system is even worse than Europe’s, trading at some of the lowest since the early 1980s.

These are not isolated occurrences. The first instances of modern negative interest rates arrived in Switzerland in the 1970s. As Bloomberg Opinion Columnist Stephen Mihm recently detailedthe results were not pretty.

The U.S., UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand are the only developed bond markets that do not have negative rates anywhere on their yield curves. Should these countries join the rest of the developed world in moving to negative rates, the financial system will be under much more stress. If negative rates become more widespread across the globe, then the financial system needs to be rebuilt on a new set of assumptions. The problem is we do not yet know what those should be or how they would work.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

The high USA dollar is again playing havoc to our emerging markets.  The slowdown in trade growth has causes most of our emerging market central banks to cut rates and their cutting is the most since the financial crisis of 2008

(zerohedge)

Emerging Market Central Banks Panic With Most Rate Cuts Since Financial Crisis

The global growth outlook is the lowest since the last financial crisis, and central banks, especially ones in emerging markets, have already started to cut interest rates to make sure growth doesn’t collapse.

Manufacturing across large parts of South America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East are reeling from a global structural slowdown, amplified by the US and China trade war, have triggered emerging central banks to cut rates by the most in a decadereported Reuters.

Emerging central banks took notice when major central banks including the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank started to cut interest rates this summer, all in an attempt to lessen the impact of a global synchronized slowdown.

Central banks across 37 emerging market economies recorded a net fourteen rate cuts in August, the most since policymakers dropped rates to zero after the global financial crash in 2008/09.

August marked the seventh straight month of net rate cuts followed by a tightening cycle that ended in early 2019. July recorded a net eight rate cuts. Cuts by Mexico and Thailand in August took markets by surprise.

After nine straight months of rate hikes in 2018, emerging central banks battled the fallout from a firm dollar, increasing inflation, and weaker local currencies.

Here’s a complete list of the recent emerging market central bank policy decessions:

  • PARAGUAY – The central bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% on Aug. 21.
  • INDONESIA – The central bank, hoping it can spur faster growth at home despite a global slowdown, surprisingly cut its key interest rate for a second time in two months on Aug. 22.
  • MEXICO – Policymakers cut on Aug. 15 the key lending rate by 25 basis points to 8.00%- the first reduction since June 2014, citing slowing inflation and increasing slack in the economy, and fuelling expectations that further monetary policy easing could be on the way.
  • EGYPT – Egypt’s central bank cut the overnight deposit rate by 150 basis points to 14.25% on Aug. 22, its first cut since February, after July inflation figures came in significantly below expectations
  • MOZAMBIQUE – The central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points on Aug. 14 to 12.75%.
  • JAMAICA – Jamaica’s central bank cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.50% on Aug. 28.
  • NAMIBIA – Policymakers reduced the lending rate by 25 basis points to 6.5% on Aug. 14.
  • MAURITIUS – The central bank on Aug. 9 cut the repo rate by 0.15 basis points to 3.35%.
  • PERU – The central bank cut the benchmark interest rate to 2.5% on Aug. 9 amid growing expectations for an economic slowdown in the world’s No.2 copper producer, but stressed its decision did not necessarily mean the start of an easing cycle.
  • SERBIA – The Serbian central bank surprised markets by cutting its benchmark interest rate another 25 basis points to 2.5% on Aug. 8, the second cut in as many months, to further bolster lending and growth.
  • THE PHILIPPINES – The central bank cut its benchmark interest rate on Aug. 8 and kept the door open for further easing to buttress the economy after growth slipped to its weakest in 17 quarters, hurt by tepid government spending and private sector investment.
  • BOTSWANA – The central bank cut the lending rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% on Aug. 29.
  • INDIA – The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lowered its benchmark interest rates for a fourth straight meeting on Aug. 7 with a slightly bigger than expected cut, underscoring its worries about India’s near-five year low pace of economic growth.
  • BELARUS – The central bank said on Aug. 7 it was cutting its main interest rate to 9.5% from 10% with effect from Aug. 14 and that the intensity of inflationary processes had slowed in the second quarter.
  • THAILAND – Policymakers unexpectedly cut the benchmark rate on Aug. 7, expressing worry about strength of the baht and aiming to help support faltering growth.
  • JORDAN – The central bank of Jordan reduced its main rate in early August by 25 basis points to 4.5%.
  • HONG KONG – The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) cut its base rate charged through the overnight discount window by 25 basis points to 2.5% on Aug. 1, its first cut since late 2008, in line with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s move. Hong Kong’s monetary policy moves in lock-step with the Fed as its dollar is pegged at a tight range of 7.75-7.85 per dollar.
  • MOLDOVA – The central bank raised its main interest rate to 7.5% from 7% on July 31 to fight rising inflation caused by wage increases and higher food prices.
  • SAUDI ARABIA / BAHRAIN / UNITED ARAB EMIRATES – Central banks of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates – whose currencies are all pegged to the U.S. dollar – cut key interest rates to preserve monetary stability on July 31 after the Federal Reserve lowered U.S. interest rates for the first time in over a decade.
  • BRAZIL – In its first rate cut since March 2018, the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a new low of 6.00% on July 31, an aggressive first move in a widely anticipated easing cycle to inject life into a moribund economy and prevent inflation from slipping too far below target.
  • AZERBAIJAN – The central bank said on July 26 it had cut its refinancing rate to 8.25% from 8.50%.
  • RUSSIA – Policymakers cut the key interest rate on July 26 and flagged that one or two more cuts were possible later this year as Russia faces sluggish economic growth and slowing inflation.
  • TURKEY – The central bank slashed its key interest rate by a bigger-than-expected 425 basis points to 19.75% on July 25 to spur a recession-hit economy, its first step away from the emergency stance adopted during last year’s currency crisis.
  • SOUTH AFRICA – The central bank cut its main lending rate as expected on July 18, but struck a cautious tone that suggested future cuts in borrowing costs were not a foregone conclusion despite benign inflation.
  • UKRAINE – Policymakers cut the main interest rate by half a percentage point to 17% on July 18, citing a downward inflation trend which is expected to continue in coming months and could pave the way for further monetary easing.
  • SOUTH KOREA – The central bank delivered a surprise interest rate cut on July 18, and shaved this year’s growth forecast to the lowest in a decade, as a brewing dispute with Japan piled more pressure on the trade-dependent economy.
  • PAKISTAN – Policymakers hiked the main interest rate by 100 basis points on July 16 to 13.25%, citing increased inflationary pressures and a likely near-term rise in prices from higher utility costs.
  • DOMINICAN REPUBLIC – Policymakers cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 5% on June 30.
  • COSTA RICA – The central bank cut the key policy rate to 4.50% from 4.75% from June 20.
  • CHILE – Chile’s central bank unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 2.5% on June 7 as it braced for a sharper economic slowdown because of the U.S.-China trade dispute.
  • SRI LANKA – The central bank cut its key interest rates by 50 basis points on May 31, as widely expected, to support its faltering economy as overall business and consumer confidence slumped following deadly bomb attacks.
  • TAJIKISTAN – The central bank reduced the refinancing rate to 13.25% from 14.75% on May 31.
  • KYRGYZSTAN – Policymakers in the Central Asian nation cut the benchmark rate to 4.25% from 4.50% on May 28, citing slowing inflation.
  • ANGOLA – Angola’s central bank cut its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to 15.5% on May 24.
  • ZAMBIA – The central bank in Lusaka raised the benchmark lending rate to 10.25% from 9.75% on May 22 to counter inflationary pressure and support macroeconomic stability.
  • MALAYSIA – The central bank on May 7 became the first in Southeast Asia to cut its key interest rate this year, by 25 basis points to 3.0%, moving to support its economy at a time of concern about global growth.
  • RWANDA – Rwanda’s central bank cut its key repo rate by 50 basis points on May 6 to 5.0%.
  • MALAWI – Malawi’s central bank cut its benchmark lending rate by 100 basis points on May 3 to 3.5%.
  • CZECH REPUBLIC – The Czech National Bank raised interest rates on May 2, using a window of opportunity created by easing economic risks abroad to stem rising domestic inflation by fine-tuning a tightening cycle it had paused at the end of 2018.
  • KAZAKHSTAN – Policymakers cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 9.00% on April 15 in an expected move taken after President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev ordered them to make credit more affordable.
  • NIGERIA – In a surprise move, the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 13.5% from 14% on March 26 as part of an attempt to stimulate growth in Africa’s biggest economy and signal a “new direction”.
  • GEORGIA – The central bank cut its refinancing rate to 6.5% from 6.75% on March 13, citing forecasts suggesting that annual inflation would stay close to its 3% target this year.
  • TUNISIA – Policymakers in Tunisia raised the key interest rate to 7.75% from 6.75% on Feb. 19 to combat high inflation – the third such hike in the past 12 months.

The reason emerging market central banks were delivering the most cuts in a decade last month is that the world is likely in a trade recession that could significantly worsen into 1H20.

Many emerging market countries have export-driven economies to the developed world, and when demand slows down, their economies suffer the most.

Rate cuts from August will take at least one year to filter into emerging markets, which means economic data from the 37 regions will likely stay depressed for some time.

end

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1014 UP .0061 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN AND HONG KONG CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.23 UP 0.380 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2200   UP   0.0109  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3317 DOWN .0022 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 61 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1014 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 27.26 POINTS OR 0.93% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 995.38 POINTS OR 3.90%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,31%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 995.38 POINTS OR 3.90%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.26 POINTS OR 0.93%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 31% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 23.98  POINTS OR 0.12%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1534.60

silver:$19.25-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.49% !!! UP 3 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.99 UP 3  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 98.62 DOWN 38 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.16% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.28%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.15%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.81 DOWN 7 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 66 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.67% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.48% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1024  up .0052   or 52 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.29 up .446 OR YEN DOWN 45  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2187 UP .0097 POUND UP 97  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 92 basis points to 1.3246

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.1460    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.1461  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.6686 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.28%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.47 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1,97 UP 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.51 DOWN 49  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 43.07  0.59%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 114.18 POINTS OR .96%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 66.000 POINTS 1.21%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 47.40 POINTS or 0.54%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 338.57 POINTS OR 1.58%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 56.18 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 60.60 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    66.15  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.64 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 64 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.67 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  56.32//

 

 

BRENT :  60.79

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.46  down one basis pt and did not buy the Dow…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.96 up one pt and did not buy the Dow..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.029 ( UP 56   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.36 up .504  (YEN DOWN 50 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.47 DOWN 53 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2224 UP 133  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.6701

 

 

the Russian rouble 66.17   UP 0.62 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 62 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3234 UP 105 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.1460  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.1478 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.67%

 

The Dow closed UP 237.45 POINTS OR 0.91%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 102.72 POINTS OR 1.30%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  17,31 CLOSED DOWN 2.35

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.126%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Traders Buy Everything As Uber-Dovish FedSpeak Sparks Dollar Dump

While Lam’s promises started the optimism, and China PMI improved marginally, and another BoJo defeat helped sentiment…

The market held the overnight gains as a procession of Fed Speakers all toed the narrative line that rate-cuts are coming and The Fed needs to watch the world when it decides on policy…

Williams (Dovish): “Ready to act as appropriate”, July cut was right move, economy mixed (admitted consumer spending not a leading indicator), international news matters, low inflation biggest problem.

Kaplan (Dovish): “Monetary policy a potent force”, worried about yield curve inversion, economy mixed (factories weak due to trade, consumer strong), watching for “psychological effects” on consumers, “if you wait for consumer weakness, it might be too late.”

Kashkari (Dovish): Tariffs, “trade war are really concerning business”, job market not overheating, slower global growth will impact US, most concerned about inverted yield curve. Fed’s policy is “moderately contractionary.”

Bullard/Bowman (Looked Dovish): Took part in “Fed Listens” conference but made no comment on policy but then again when has Jim Bullard ever not been dovish.

Beige Book (Mixed): Moderate expansion but trade fears are mounting, but optimism remains, despite what Kashkari says: “although concerns regarding tariffs and trade policy uncertainty continued, the majority of businesses remained optimistic about the near-term outlook”

Evans (Dovish): Trade policy increases uncertainty and immigration restrictions lower trend growth to 1.5%, Auto industry especially challenged

 

And the market is now pricing in a stunning 124bps of cuts through the end of 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

With an increasing number of traders betting on US rates going negative before the end of 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

China ramped in the afternoon session…

Source: Bloomberg

Hong Kong stocks exploded around 4% higher – best day since Nov 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

Europe opened exuberantly…and clung to those gains…

Source: Bloomberg

US equities were all higher on the day, with Nasdaq and S&P erasing yesterday’s losses but Small Caps are the biggest laggards…

NOTE – Dow and Transports were desperately lifted again and again to try and get green on the week, but failed.

It is clear that US equities are only supported by The Fed now as a trade deal is almost entirely priced out…

Source: Bloomberg

Futures ramped overnight – filling the gap from Sunday night’s open – then making lower highs for the rest of the day…

 

Most Shorted stocks massively squeezed at the open and ramped after Europe closed to get back to unch on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

 

As sextuple top for the S&P…

 

Treasury yields were mixed today with the long-end underperforming (30Y +2bps) and back higher on the week, while the short-end compressed around 2bps on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields tested 2.00% once again but, once again, quickly caught a bid (despite heavy rate-lock buying on the back of massive issuance)…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve remains dramatically inverted…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar index plunged today – 2nd biggest drop in 2019…

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan surged for the second day, back up to last Friday’s highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos faded overnight but were bid during the US day session…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities were all higher on the day

Source: Bloomberg

 

Gold futures jumped back above $1565…

And Silver outperformed again, spiking back above $19.50…

 

Oil surged manically higher today to tag $56.50 (from $54) after U.S. announced plans to intensify sanctions on Iran and Russia said it would trim production in September.

But once the machines had tagged that $56.50 stop-run, oil started to tumble…

API reports inventories after the close tonight.

Gold in Yuan reversed early losses, bouncing off 10,000, despite the gains in yuan today…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, some fun charts for your consideration.

CapEx is collapsing, Deutsche: “We are getting more and more worried about the impact of the trade war on capex spending”…

Global Manufacturing is a bloodbath…

And, as earnings expectations have collapsed this year, only global liquidity has saved stocks (but even that is diverging now)…

Source: Bloomberg

And doesn’t look likely to improve anytime soon…

end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Dorian devastated Bahamas

(zerohedge)

Dorian-Devastated Island With 50K Residents Now 70% Under Water

Hurricane Dorian has absolutely devastated Grand Bahama island, which is now 70% under water according to Bloomberg, citing government sources. The roughly 50-mile wide vacation destination in the Bahamas is home to approximately 50,000 people.

 

Satellite photo showing Grand Bahama Island before and after Hurricane Dorian made landfall. In the after photo (bottom), note the yellow lines that mark where the land was before the storm flooded the area.
(Source: Iceye via CNN)

Bahamian Prime Minister Hubert Minnis said that the damage to homes, businesses and other buildings is “unprecedented and extensive,” while the National Emergency Management Agency has issued an “urgent plea” to owners of equipment such as jet skis, small boats and flatbed trailers to assemble at the Grand Bahama shopping mall to assist with the rescue.

The US Coast Guard along with the British Royal Navy have also been sent to the region.

There are “still many outstanding rescue missions,” on the island of Grand Bahama, Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Kevin Peter Turnquest said, in reply to written questions. “It’s not looking good as we expect catastrophic damage.” -Bloomberg

News Breaking LIVE@NewsBreaking

BREAKING PHOTOS: What remains inside airport in Freeport on Grand Bahama Island – WPTV-TV

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

According to the Red Cross, 13,000 houses have been damaged or destroyed. When combined with nearby Abaco Island which lies just to the East, 45% of all dwellings are reported to have been obliterated, and 62,000 people do not have fresh water.

Christina Ginn

@NBChristinaGinn

DEVASTATING STATS IN BAHAMAS:

-13,000+ houses damaged or destroyed

-45% of all dwellings on Abaco and Grand Bahama

-62,000 people on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama do not have fresh water

via @RedCross

Abaco: 

Javier@drpavito1

Only cars in Abaco island, no houses 🤦🏻‍♂️🌪🌊🌧 Credits – unknown

Embedded video

Sotiri Dimpinoudis@sotiridi

: Just in – Some pictures of the damage caused by Dorian on island, from the islands, as the sends the coast guard help the people on island and to provide assistance.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Dorian is currently traveling northwest at around 5 mph according to the National Hurricane Center.

end

Bahamas Makes “Urgent Plea” To Jet-Ski Owners: Help With Dorian Rescue After “Historic Tragedy”

The government of Bahamas is making a desperate plea to jet ski owners to help with rescue efforts in the wake of Hurricane Dorian, according to Bloomberg.

The country’s National Emergency Management Agency sent out an “urgent plea” for those who owned jet skis, small boats, trucks and buses to meet at a shopping mall on Grand Bahama in order to organize a post-hurricane rescue effort. Grand Bahama is an island of about 50,000 people in the Northern Bahamas that bore the worst of Hurricane Dorian over the weekend.

The storm is moving away from the islands currently, albeit slowly. Carrying sustained winds of about 120 miles per hour, the storm itself is only moving at about 1 mile per hour. It was a Category 3 hurricane as of 8AM New York time on Tuesday.

 

Video of the storm’s devastation continue to surface on social media:

Latrae Rahming@p0sitivechange

Just some videos coming out of Abaco just to get an idea of the devastating state from Hurricane Dorian

Embedded video

ian bremmer

@ianbremmer

The Bahamas as the eye of Dorian was passing through.

Absolutely devastating.

Embedded video

CNN

@CNN

This is what Grand Bahama International Airport looked like before and during Hurricane Dorian https://cnn.it/2PDr4Zb

Embedded video

As we reported over the weekend, Hurricane Dorian wrought devastation on the Bahamas Sunday night into Monday morning as it hammered the small Caribbean nation with sustained winds of 180 mph, and some gusts ranging up to 220 mph. The Category 5 storm inflicted massive amounts of property damage and destroying critical components of the Bahamanian infrastructure.

The fate of Florida remained uncertain as the storm continued its slow creep across the Atlantic. As of 3 am Monday morning, the storm was 125 miles away from the state’s east coast, Bloomberg reports.

“This is probably the most sad and worst day of my life to address the Bahamian people,” Minnis said Sunday evening, crying during a press conference at the headquarters of the National Emergency Management Agency. “This will put us through a test that we’ve never confronted before.”

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Seems that Omar is quite good at wrecking families: now her husband wants a divorce from her for dishonouring the family. Also Mynett is seeking a divorce from her husband who has having an affair with Omar

(zerohedge)

Rep. Omar’s Husband Wants Divorce After Homewrecking Ilhan Dishonors Family: Report

It appears that ‘the squad’ isn’t doing so well these days. Between Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D-NY) chief-of-staff suddenly quitting while under federal investigation for potential financial crimes, to Rep. Tlaib’s (D-MI) recent temper tantrum over her Israel’s visit – the latest progressive ‘firebrand’ to shit the bed is none other than freshman Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN).

Omar’s soap opera has been popcorn-worthy to say the least.

After allegedly committing perjury, immigration fraud, marriage fraud, state and federal tax fraud, and federal student loan fraud – and potentially marrying her own brother, it gets better.

The 37-year-old Minnesota Congresswoman’s husband, Ahmed Hirsi, wants a divorce following reports that Ilhan had an affair with DC political consultant, Tim Mynett – whom she paid $230,000 through her campaign since 2018 for fundraising consulting, digital communications, internet advertising and travel expenses.

Dr. Beth Mynett says in divorce filings that her cheating spouse admitted to the affair in April, and that he had even made a “shocking declaration of love” for the congresswoman before leaving his wife.

 

Tim and Beth Mynett

Talk about family separation!

The Minnesota congresswoman and her husband allegedly separated in March, and Omar asked Hirsi to divorce her around that time because she didn’t want to file the papers — but Hirsi refused, telling her if she wanted a divorce she should do it herself, said the source, who has known both parties for 20 years.

The husband allegedly changed his mind after Tim Mynett’s wife last week filed bombshell divorce papers claiming her spouse was having an affair with the Somali-born US representative — with Hirsi said to be angry he had been made to look the fool by the allegations of an extramarital affair. –New York Post

“I’m surprised he hasn’t filed already,” a source told The Post, adding that Hirsi was “very confused” after the cheating came to light.

Omar denied that she was dating Mynett in an August 27 interview with CBS affiliate WCCO. So either Mynett’s wife is lying – and decided to blow up her marriage by fabricating a story about her husband’s affair with Omar, or Omar is a total liar.

Omar was spotted enjoying time with Tim Mynett at a California restaurant in March.

Beth Mynett is seeking primary physical custody of her and her husband’s son in part because of Tim Mynett’s “extensive travel” with Omar — which isn’t exactly part of his job description, the document says.

“Defendant’s more recent travel and long work hours now appear to be more related to his affair with Rep. Omar than with his actual work commitments,” the court papers state. –New York Post

Omar’s husband Ahmed Hirsi, meanwhile, “is reportedly bouncing between friends’ houses and stays at the luxury condo when Omar isn’t in town, with the kids also spending time with a grandfather,” per the Post‘s source. Hirsi was apparently upset by Omar’s membership in “the Squad,” which left him with stay-at-home-dad duty for their two children, aged 7 and 16.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Poll: Voters [67%] want US to confront China over trade

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/459746-poll-voters-want-us-to-confront-china-over-trade

The featured performer on Tuesday was gold.  AU hit its daily low of 1528 at 23:01 ET.  It then steadily rallied during European trading.  After a two-hour roll over, gold surged to 1558.90 at 11:16 ET.

We noted in yesterday’s missive that someone wanted ESUs higher; so, they forced ESUs higher during Asian trading.  ESUs peaked at 2915.50 at 21:51 ET, a 36-handle rally from Monday’s low of 2889.

ESUs then rolled until near the end of the first hour of European trading.  A sudden surge appeared; but it soon rolled over into a decline that made a minor new low at 5:54 ET.  The obligatory rally to manipulate the NYSE open higher appeared.

@realDonaldTrump [7:12 ET]: We are doing very well in our negotiations with China. While I am sure they would love to be dealing with a new administration so they could continue their practice of “ripoff USA”($600 B/year),16 months PLUS is a long time to be hemorrhaging jobs and companies on a long-shot And then, think what happens to China when I win. Deal would get MUCH TOUGHER! In the meantime, China’s Supply Chain will crumble and businesses, jobs and money will be gone!

ESUs hit 2914.50 at 9:52 ET.  Fourteen minutes later, ESUs made a new session low of 2891.25.

The fin media blamed Trump for the equity tumble after the first 30 minutes of US trading.  However, the Trump tweet about China appeared about 2 ¾ hours before the tumble.

Markit US Manufacturing PMI

Manufacturing PMI lowest for almost a decade as export decline intensifies

PMI at 50.3 in August (49.9 flash, 50.4 in July), lowest since September 2009 [50 was expected]

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2413628f38c94d27bdaed3277c759b41

The ISM August Manufacturing PMI, reported at 10:00 ET, declined to 49.1 from 51.2.  51.3 was expected.  New Orders fell to 47.2 from 50.8; 50.5 was expected. Exports tanked to 43.3 last from 48.1, the lowest level in 10 years.  The ugly ISM is what caused ESU and stock tumble early in NYSE trading.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/pmi-at-49-1-august-manufacturing-ism-report-on-business-300909470.html

@zerohedge: Liu He hopes China, U.S. can deepen mutual understanding, seek common ground, and resolve issues on the basis of equality and mutual respect

Translation: He hopes China can keep stealing and reverse engineering everything

Johnson Loses Majority Ahead of Showdown [After Lee Defects]: Brexit Update

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-03/johnson-meets-rebels-before-parliament-showdown-brexit-update

Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm: It has taken long for #BorisJohnson to face the dilemma that his predecessor struggled with: Lawmakers are better at forming blocking coalitions than unify on what they want on #Brexit. Difference: Johnson appears more willing to underwrite a no-deal Brexit and/or #election risk.

Opponents of ‘no-deal’ Brexit defeat PM Johnson, who promises an election

A cross-party alliance defeated Boris Johnson in parliament on Tuesday in a bid to prevent him taking Britain out of the EU without a divorce agreement – prompting the prime minister to announce that he would immediately push for a snap election…

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu/opponents-of-no-deal-brexit-defeat-johnson-in-parliament-idUSKCN1VN259

Boston Fed President Rosengren makes the point that we tried to articulate about the YC inversion: Normally yield curve inversion comes via ‘policy actions to raise short rates’.  We mentioned this in noting that one should also be aware of YC shifts.

Rosengren: An inverted yield curve is often seen to signify an economic downturn. Rosengren says, this view is not being echoed in equity mkts, bond spreads, or forecasts. The inversion now is driven by the decline in longer-term rates, rather than policy actions to raise short-term rates.

    Economic forecasts and the underlying data are consistent with a U.S. economy growing slightly above its potential rate. Continued strong consumption is key to that outlook—and has been offsetting weaknesses in other components of GDP. More: https://bit.ly/2k0PoFh

Fed’s Bullard says “aggressive” step needed to align Fed with markets, insure against trade war

“We are too high,” Bullard said of Fed interest rates, noting that the central bank’s current target policy rate of between 2% and 2.25% was higher than the current yield of all U.S. Treasury securities…

https://twitter.com/YahooFinance/status/1168990696210128903?s=09

Bullard, who seemingly is shamelessly pandering to be Powell’s replacement, is really dumb or he thinks the Street and the masses are really dumb. Bullard asserts that low bond yields demand aggressive Fed action.  Bonds yields are at record lows due to the central bank bond corner/aggressive action.  If Bullard wants bond yields to rise, just have the Fed sell some of its Treasuries.

Ex-Rep. Ron Paul: The Fed Is in the Stock Market and They Don’t Want Us to Know the Details

That’s why they don’t let the audit go through because you could find out… The Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets, that’s their job, to keep stocks from going down… they have total controland they’re really not monitored…”

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-09-03/ron-paul-i-believe-fed-stock-market-and-they-dont-want-us-know-details

FT: Central banks will need new tools to combat the next downturn

Traditional monetary policy has had a number of unpleasant side-effects

https://www.ft.com/content/ad35d4a0-ca4c-11e9-af46-b09e8bfe60c0

The above FT story illustrates how the world has turned to central banks to solve all their economic and financial problems – when they are not supposed to have that type of power.  Western governments ceded monetary powers given to them by constitutions to central banks so the central banks could paper over spending schemes and inoculate legislators and administrations from making tough decisions.

Once upon a time central banks were supposed to be lenders of last recourse.  Now, they are supposed to manage the economy, stock market, bond market and currency.  They are not equipped to do anything but monetize stuff and manipulate interest rates.  Because they have abused and overused their only two super powers, those tools have lost their efficacy.  There are no other tools except for fiscal measures, which would take legislative, even constitutional, action.  In the meantime, the usual suspects will still look to central banks to save them and exercise command control over economies.

@zerohedge on Monday: JPMorgan Says It’s Finally Time to Buy Stocks Despite Trade Woes: BBG

err, JPMorgan has been saying to buy stocks every week for the past 2 years

Today – A passel of Fed officials are scheduled to speak, including uber-doves, Bullard, Kashkari and Evans.  Traders expect that on net, dovish comments will litter the tape.

Williams speaks first, just as the NYSE opens.  The NY Fed President has been a tad hawkish as of late.  Bullard, who called for a 50 bp rate cut at the next FOMC, will do his usual stick.  Kashkari, who appears to be competing with Bullard for Trump’s attention and affection, might try to out dove Bullard.  Evans, who is a habitual dove, is the wild card.

The big day this week is Friday: August jobs report and Powell speaks in Zurich at 12:30 p.m. ET on “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy.”  And you can be sure that Donald “Have Tweet will Gravel” Trump will comment on both the jobs report and Powell.

@charliekirk11: Elizabeth Warren says it’s “obscene” to profit off of students  Really?

Cost of one Warren-authored textbook—$258.97

Cost of one Warren-co-authored textbook—$126.78

Cost of one Warren-authored supplemental chapter—$60

Cost of Elizabeth Warren’s one-year salary—$430,000 [For teaching ONE class]

 

WSJ: Texas Shooter Had Been Banned from Buying Firearms Because Mentally Unfit

@CWBChicago Ridiculous: A six-time convicted felon facing new gun charges has bail set at $100,000 by a Cook County Judge.  Then, she sets him free without making him pay it.

http://bit.ly/CarolHowardSpe

 

Decorated former Palm Beach detective who led Epstein investigation dies at 50

No other information about the cause of death was released…

https://www.palmbeachdailynews.com/news/local-obituaries/decorated-detective-remembered-for-work-ethic-making-others-smile/Xn9DqgNZ544V3qx0dSbWpJ/

@TheOnion: Obamas Sign Exclusive 6-Truck Deal to Produce Series of Mid-Size RAM Pickups

[Parody of Neflix giving the Obamas millions to produce 6 movies] https://trib.al/vyKou1H

Attachments area

Well that is all for today

I will see you Thursday night.

 

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