SEPT 5//MASSIVE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER TODAY ORCHESTRATED BY OUR BANKING CROOKS: GOLD DOWN $33.80 TO $1517.80//SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS TO $18.75//MISH SHEDLOCK DELIVERS AN OUTSTANDING COMMENTARY AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON WITH BREXIT//TURKEY’S ERDOGAN AGAIN THREATENS THE WEST THAT HE WILL UNLOAD ALL OF MIGRANTS ON GREEK SHORES/USA RELEASES TWO PHONY DATA PTS I.E. ISM SERVICE REPORT AND THE ADP REPORT AND THAT CAUSED THE DOW TO SKYROCKET FOR NO APPARENT REASON//ONE SWAMP STORY FOR YOU TONIGHT PLUS KING REPORT///

GOLD:$1517.80 DOWN $33.80 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$18.75 DOWN 68 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1518.80

 

silver:  $18.65

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 07/17

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,550.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/04/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 09/06/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 4
132 C SG AMERICAS 2
661 H JP MORGAN 7
737 C ADVANTAGE 15 4
905 C ADM 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 17 17
MONTH TO DATE: 1,613

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT CONTRACT: 17 NOTICE(S) FOR 1700 OZ (0.0528 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1613 NOTICES FOR 161,300 OZ  (5.0171 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR SEPT

 

 

378 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1,890,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 6510 for   32,550,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10,582 UP 15 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10510 DOWN 86

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE  SIZED 2702 CONTRACTS FROM 225,688 DOWN TO 222,986 DESPITE THE STRONG 28 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. WE NO DOUBT HAVE SCARED OUR BANKERS AS WE HAD ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING WITH LIMITED SUCCESS ON THEIR PART.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

 FOR SEPT 0,  DEC:3364 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  3364 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3364 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3364 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 16.82 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 28 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

37.570   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

 

WE HAD ATTEMPTED COVERING OF BANKER SHORTS AT THE SILVER COMEX  YESTERDAY AS THE BANKERS HAVE NOW FINALLY COME TO REALIZE THAT THEY ARE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE.  THE LIQUIDATION OF COMEX OI OF SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED AND WE WILL NOW COMMENCE WITH THE ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADERS GOLD OPEN INTEREST.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT:

7956 CONTRACTS (FOR 3 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 7956 CONTRACTS) OR 39.78 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2652 CONTRACTS OR 13.26 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  39.78 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 5.68% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1589.49   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2702, DESPITE THE 28 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3364 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A FAIR SIZED: 682 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 3364 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 2702 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 28 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.43 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.116 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 160% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 378 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,890,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

1.HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/  SEPT 37.570 MILLION OZ// 

 

2      THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.

3      HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP        ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. HOWEVER FINALLY THAT PRICE IS RISING. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 9,205 CONTRACTS, TO 643,563 ACCOMPANYING THE  $5.00 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY//

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 5945 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  5945 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 643,563,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZE GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 15,150 CONTRACTS:,9205 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 5,945 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 15,150 CONTRACTS OR 1,515,000 OZ OR 47.122 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $5.00 IN GOLD TRADING....AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUGE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 47.122  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON TRYING TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. WE PROBABLY HAD SOME NEGLIGIBLE GOLD BANKER SHORT COVERING BUT IT WAS SILVER THAT WITNESSED THE CONSIDERABLE ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING. 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 24,512 CONTRACTS OR 2,451,200 oz OR 76.24 TONNES (3 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8170 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 72.24 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 72.24/3550 x 100% TONNES =2.03% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4,227.36  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 9205 DESPITE THE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($5.00)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5945 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5,945 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 15,150 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5945 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 9205 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 47.122 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE SMALLISH  GAIN IN PRICE OF $5.00 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  17 notice(s) filed upon for 1700 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD..

WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:5.86 TONNES//PROBABLY DONE JUST BEFORE THE RAID.

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS TODAY:

 

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2702 CONTRACTS from 225,688 DOWN TO 222,986 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

FOR SEPT. 0, FOR DEC: 3364   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3364 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2702 CONTRACTS TO THE 3364 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE STILL OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 975 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3.310 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ//AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//SEPT 2019: 37.570 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE VERY STRONG 28 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE SIZED 3364 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 28.45 POINTS OR 0.96%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 7.70 POINTS OR 0.03%   /The Nikkei closed UP 436.80 POINTS OR 2.12%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .97%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.1448 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN EXCEPT LONDON//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.1448 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1400  TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Japan/South Korea

My goodness the rift between South Korea and Japan intensifies.  The South Koreans have not forgot about World War ii.  Exports of Japanese beer falls by an unbelievable 97%

(zerohedge)

3C  CHINA

i)China/USA

Seems that the Chinese media are ignoring Trump’s tweets

(zerohedge)

ii)HONG KONG

As promised, the protests will not end: today masked men firebombed the home of a Hong Kong Media tycoon. More protests are planned.  I guess “if you let the tear gas out of the bottle you can not get it back” as stated by Bill Blain
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Tom Luongo states what happened yesterday in Br. parliament perfectly

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

ii)Now Boris Johnson;s brother resigns as Junior Minister and by doing so gives his brother the “royal shaft”. England is now in a total mess.

(zerohedge)

iii)A terrific commentary from Mish Shedlock on the Brexit affair. He states that Boris Johnson’s moves were all planned and that he will get his no deal Brexit through because there will be no Queen’s consent.

a must read…
(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Turkey/EU

Turkey wants a land grab i.e. northern Syria.  He wants to put those million or so so refugees there. Only one problem, it is not the uSA to dole out the land.  Erdogan claims he has spent 35 billion dollars on those refugees.  He now wants out..he will send them off to Greece unless they cover his cost..

(zerohedge)

ii)Iran/USA

)USA offer millions of dollars to the captain of our famous Iranian oil tanker if he hands the vessel over to American hands

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

Seems that all car manufacturers are caught in a crossfire with respect to trump’s trade war with China

see for yourself..

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)A good interview of GATA board member Ed Steer

(Ed Steer/GATA/Goddard/HoweStreet.com)

ii)As I pointed out yesterday, are the rats fleeing a sinking ship:

Soc Generale flees the LBMA in their trading platform on gold and silver:

(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

iii)Rats fleeing a sinking ship?. Gold and silver rose immediately after this was announced.

(Hobson/Reuters)

iv)Are the boys still engaging in spoofing despite their criminal guilty plea??  You can bet the farm that they are

(courtesy Chris Marcus/Arcadia Economics)

v)Just in case you missed Nicholas’ masterpiece from yesterday, I am repeating it:

(courtesy Nicholas Biezanek)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

Pure nonsense!/futures soar on news of a supposed resumption of trade talks in October

(zerohedge)

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/late morning

The ISM is a phony report and it showed a rebound while the identical survey Markit showed a huge downgrade.  go figure!

ii)Market data/USA

a)The phony ADP report which is always bullish surges in August showing a gain of 195,000 workers

(ADP/Zerohedge)

b)Again the ISM service report deviates from the Markit service..such crooks.

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)The Dems will not like this:  Trump diverts $3.6 billion from the military budget to fund the border wall

(zerohedge)

b)Trump is angry at Barra for moving mega jobs over to China.  Let us see what he will say today on this matter

(zerohedge)

c)This is a disaster waiting to happen:  The We work IPO is targeting a 20 to 30 billion dollar valuation a huge discount from the latest round(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

i)This should be interesting: Nunes files a civil lawsuit against Fusion stating that they were behind the smearing of his name with the purpose to obstruct justice and detail his investigation.  I would love to be a fly on the wall during their discoveries

(Sara Carter)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 9,205 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 645,227 ACCOMPANYING THE SMALLISH GAIN OF $5.00 GAIN IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5945 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR SEPT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 5945   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5945 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 15,150 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5945 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 9205 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TRYING TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. WE PROBABLY HAD NEGLIGIBLE BANKER SHORT COVERING TODAY IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO SILVER WHICH DID WITNESS CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  15,150 CONTRACTS OR 1,515,000 OZ OR 47.122 TONNES.

 

 

 

We are now in the  active contract month of SEPT and here the open interest stands at 56 CONTRACTS as we LOST 61 contracts.  We had 75 notices filed yesterday so we AGAIN GAINED 14 contracts or 1400 oz of gold that will stand for delivery AS THE LONGS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK AT FINDING GOLD AT THIS SIDE OF THE POND.  THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS THEY NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.

 

The next  active month is OCT and here the OI ROSE by 241 contracts UP TO 43,357. After Oct, the non active delivery month of November saw another 9 contracts of added OI and it now stands at 10 contracts.  The big active December contract month saw its oi climb by 5250 contracts up to 481,010.

 

 Ladies and Gentlemen:  the comex is under attack for physical metal.

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 17 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  1700 OZ. (0.0528 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2702 CONTRACTS FROM 225,688 DOWN TO 222,986 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED DESPITE A 28 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY…AND THE REASON FOR THIS WAS OBVIOUS BANKER SHORT COVERING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.  HERE WE HAVE 1382 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 385 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 651 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED A WHOPPING 266 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 1,330,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.. AFTER SEPT IS THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER WHICH RECEIVED ANOTHER 72 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1441.  NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS NOVEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 34 CONTRACTS UP TO 84.  THE HUGE DECEMBER DELIVERY CONTRACT MONTH (VERY ACTIVE) SAW IT’S OI FALL BY 2744 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 177,003 AND IT IS HERE WHERE OUR ILLUSTRIOUS BANKERS TRIED TO UNLOAD SOME OF THE MONSTROUS SILVER SHORTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 378 notice(s) filed for 1,890,000 OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 588,140  CONTRACTS  (over $9 billion dollars worth of gold contracts thrown into the mix today).

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  437,337  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  SEPT /GOLD

SEPT  /2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
1060.67 oz
Brinks
Manfra
Scotia
33 kilobars
3 banks
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
17 notice(s)
 1700 OZ
(0.0528 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
39 contracts
(3900 oz)
.1213 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1613 notices
161300 OZ
5.0171 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 3 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else; 0

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 0  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ zero gold  arrived   today

we had 3 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks:  546.567 oz    17 kilobars

ii) Out of Manfra:   353.65 oz   11 kilobars

iii) Out of Scotia:  160.75 oz      5 kilobars

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 1060.67  oz  33 kilobars

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today
FOR THE SEPT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 17 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 7 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1613) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT. (56 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (17 x 100 oz per contract) equals 165,200 OZ OR 5.1384 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of SEPT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1613 x 100 oz)  + (56)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (17 x 100 oz )which equals 165,200 oz standing OR 5.1384 TONNES in this  active delivery month of AUGUST.

 

We surprisingly again gained a monstrous 14 contracts or an additional 1400 oz will seek metal on this side of the pond instead of morphing over to London.  The gold comex is now under siege for any remaining physical metal.

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 27.153  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING //AUGUST AND 5.1384 TONNES IN SEPT.// JUDGING BY THE HUGE SIZE OF THE COMEX NOTICES FILED TODAY, IT LOOKS LIKE SOMEBODY IS WILLING TO TAKE ON THE CROOKS AT THE COMEX.

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT AND THUS I WILL ADD THE 27.153 TONNES TO THE 5.1384 TONNES (EQUALS 32.2914 TONNES) AGAINST THE 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  736,702.381 oz or  22.91 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,090,958.669 oz 251.662 tonnes

IN THE LAST 35 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
SEPT 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1088,381.570 oz
JPMorgan
Delaware
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
610,081.800 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
378
CONTRACT(S)
(1,890,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1004 contracts
 5,020,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  6510 contracts

32,550,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into CNT:

610,081.800 oz

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.43% of all official comex silver. (153.3 million/310.1 million)

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  610,081.800  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of Delaware:  6001.03 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 675,327.440 oz

iii) Out of JPMorgan (a rare withdrawal)  407,053.100 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 1,088,381.570  oz

 

we had 2 adjustment :

i) Out of CNT: 695,781.240 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of CNT and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

ii) Out of Delaware: 83,383.615 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of Delaware and this landed into the dealer account of Delaware

 

total dealer silver:  83.814 million

total dealer + customer silver:  310.112 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER 2019. contract month is represented by 378 contract(s) FOR 1,890,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6510 x 5,000 oz = 32,550,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (1382) and the number of notices served upon today 378 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2019 contract month: 6510 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (1382)- number of notices served upon today (378)x 5000 oz equals 37,570,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month. 

We gained a whopping 266 contracts or a huge 1,330,000 additional oz of silver will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER. 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 378 notice(s) filed for 1,890,000 OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  190,757 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 162,554 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 162,554 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 812 million  OZ 116% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -2.09% ((SEPT 5/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.45% to NAV (SEPT 5/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -2.09%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.46 TRADING 15.01/DISCOUNT 3.00

 

 

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: I)A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD (LATE YESTERDAY EVENING) AND 2) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES LATE THIS AFTERNOON./INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.17 TONNES

AUGUST 20//WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

 

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WE GOT BACK 7.63 TONNES OUT OF 11.11 TONNES LOST ON WEDNESDAY( A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

 

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

 

 

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SEPT 5/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 895.90 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 657 TRADING DAYS: 39.48 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 557- TRADING DAYS: A NET 127,17 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.696 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20.WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

 

AUGUST 16/: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 15/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/2019:

 

 

Inventory 387.446 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.05/ and libor 6 month duration 1.99

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .06

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.92%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.90

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.02

GOLD lease rates negative all the way out to one yr/gold is very tight

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold To $3,000/oz By End Of 2020 As The Dollar Will Fall Sharply – Ron Paul

◆ Where Does Gold Go From Here? — Ron Paul’s “Cautious” Prediction

◆ “Gold is an ‘insurance policy’ as the dollar will continue go down in value as it is printed” and it will end in a monetary “calamity”

◆ “Gold is not money due to any man-made laws. Gold is money despite man-made laws, and is a product of the voluntary marketplace”

◆ Ron Paul has a “cautious” and “modest” prediction for gold and encourages people to own physical gold not as a speculation but for savings and insurance purpose

News and Commentary

Gold slips as China-U.S. trade talk hopes lift risk appetite

LME’s Gold, Silver Contracts in Doubt as Societe Generale Pulls Out

Boris Johnson fails in pushing through snap election after Brexit delay bill passes

Dow futures jump more than 300 points as China says US agrees to meet for trade talks

China and US agree to now meet in October for trade negotiation

China will crumble ‘WHEN I WIN’ trade war – Trump

Alan Greenspan says it’s ‘only a matter of time’ before negative rates spread to the US

The next global currency likely will have gold backing – Ed Steer Interview

John Williams of Shadowstats Interviewed by GoldSeek Radio


Gold Prices (LBMA – USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)

04-Sep-19 1538.80 1546.10, 1265.05 1269.97 & 1397.69 1403.86
03-Sep-19 1532.45 1537.85, 1278.06 1277.80 & 1400.35 1403.44
02-Sep-19 1523.35 1525.95, 1260.42 1265.01 & 1388.69 1391.51
30-Aug-19 1526.55 1528.40, 1253.14 1251.15 & 1382.75 1383.51
29-Aug-19 1536.65 1540.20, 1260.51 1262.96 & 1387.29 1392.03
28-Aug-19 1541.75 1537.15, 1263.31 1258.77 & 1389.89 1387.43
27-Aug-19 1531.85 1532.95, 1250.91 1247.51 & 1378.97 1380.88
26-Aug-19 UK Bank Holiday

Click here to listen to the latest GoldCore Podcast

Receive our free Daily or Weekly Updates by signing up here and click here to subscribe to GoldCore’s You Tube Channel

Mark O’Byrne

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

A good interview of GATA board member Ed Steer

(Ed Steer/GATA/Goddard/HoweStreet.com)

In Howe Street interview, GATA’s Ed Steer surveys gold and silver markets

 Section: 

10:37a ET Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA board member Ed Steer, publisher of Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Digest (https://edsteergoldsilver.com/), was interviewed a few days ago by Jim Goddard for HoweStreet.com.

Among other things, Steer said:

— “Seasonality” means nothing in rigged markets like those of gold and silver.

… 

— The next global currency likely will have gold backing.

— Zero interest rates are coming to the United States and will boost the price of all real assets.

— Bullion banks are hugely shorting the current rallies in gold and silver but physical demand is increasing.

The interview is 16 minutes long and begins at the 38:53 mark here:

https://www.howestreet.com/2019/08/31/this-week-in-money-198/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

end

As I pointed out yesterday, are the rats fleeing a sinking ship:

Soc Generale flees the LBMA in their trading platform on gold and silver:

(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

Bullion banks on the run?

 Section: 

Reuters Exclusive: LME’s Gold, Silver Contracts in Doubt as Societe Generale Pulls Out

By Peter Hobson and Pratima Desai
Reuters
Wednesday, September 4, 2019

LONDON — The London Metal Exchange’s gold and silver futures are being thrown into doubt with the imminent resignation of Societe Generale as a market maker threatening to deepen a decline in trading activity, three sources said.

SocGen, one of five lenders that partnered with the LME to launch the contracts in 2017, is expected to resign shortly as a market maker, taking the number of banks committed to offering tradeable prices to two — Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the sources said.

That has triggered a discussion over the contracts’ future.

“There’s still commitment,” said one of the sources. But if volumes remain low, they added, “we’ll have to sit down and decide what is the next stage — exit, restructuring, or something else.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lme-precious-gold-exclusive/exclusive…

 

iii) Other physical stories:

Rats fleeing a sinking ship?. Gold and silver rose immediately after this was announced.

(Hobson/Reuters)

Exclusive: LME’s gold, silver contracts in doubt as Societe Generale pulls out

LONDON (Reuters) – The London Metal Exchange’s gold and silver futures are being thrown into doubt, with the imminent resignation of Societe Generale as a market maker threatening to deepen a decline in trading activity, three sources said.

FILE PHOTO: A participant stands beside an illustration of gold at a booth during LME Week Asia in Hong Kong, China June 14, 2016. REUTERS/Bobby Yip

SocGen, one of five lenders that partnered with the LME to launch the contracts in 2017, is expected to resign shortly as a market maker, taking the number of banks committed to offering tradeable prices to two — Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the sources said.

That has triggered a discussion over the contracts’ future.

“There’s still commitment,” said one of the sources. But if volumes remain low, they added, “we’ll have to sit down and decide what is the next stage — exit, restructuring, or something else.”

The LME bet that the contracts would benefit from tightening regulation pushing some of London’s $10 trillion-a-year gold market from over-the-counter (OTC) deals between banks and brokers to centrally cleared exchanges.

To drive activity, it took the unusual step of cutting a deal with partners to share revenue in return for commitments to trade.

But even as a surge in gold prices this year pushes trading on CME Group’s New York COMEX market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange to record levels, turnover on the LME’s contracts, known as LMEprecious, has dropped.

SocGen declined to comment. The French bank earlier this year announced it would exit over-the-counter (OTC) commodities trading as part of a push to improve profitability, but did not say it would close on-exchange business.

 

The LME said in a statement: “We are committed – with the support of our existing participants – to overcoming current challenges in order to achieve our original ambition.”

“We already have a new market participant program for clients, along with a number of initiatives in the pipeline to support broader participation in the LME precious contracts,” it added.

The other banks partnered with the LME — Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Natixis and ICBC Standard — either declined to comment or did not respond to a request for comment.

The World Gold Council, another backer of the LME’s contracts, said it “supports all efforts which promote a transparent gold market that meets the needs of market participants.”

Proprietary trader OSTC, also a partner, said it remained fully committed to the LMEprecious project.

Fewer than 18,000 LME gold contracts changed hands in August – the lowest monthly total on record and an eighth of the number traded in its heyday of September 2017.

(Graphic: LME gold trading activity vs price link: here)

Reuters Graphic

Volumes on COMEX, by contrast, hit a monthly record of 9 million contracts, up from around 6.7 million in September 2017. Turnover of the most traded contract on the Shanghai gold exchange and in the London OTC market has also leaped.

ADVERTISEMENT

(Graphic: COMEX gold volumes vs LME gold volumes link: here).

Reuters Graphic

The number of open contracts in LME gold has meanwhile slumped to below 14,000 from a peak above 30,000 in 2017. In silver it is 2,098, a fraction of the near-7,000 achieved two years ago.

(Graphic: Open interest in LME gold and silver link: here).

Reuters Graphic

London is the world’s biggest OTC gold trading hub, managing buy and sell orders from all over the world. But the biggest players, including JPMorgan and HSBC, have not joined LMEprecious.

At least one large newcomer is preparing to join, two sources said. They declined to say who this was, but said it should lift volumes.

Previous additions such as Commerzbank, ED&F Man and Marex Financial have however failed to provide significant boosts. Neither have incentives such as fee rebates and subscription fee waivers.

ADVERTISEMENT

The LME says traders can reduce their costs by using its contracts to put positions on the exchange.

Its partners may have saved by doing this, but the company they set up to invest in the LME’s contracts, EOS Precious Metals, has only lost money – almost $800,000 as of the end-2018, documents on Britain’s Companies House database show.

“Not enough is happening,” said a source at one of the banks backing LMEprecious. “If things go on as they are, at some point we’ll have to stop.”

The LME is owned by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd.

end

Just in case you missed Nicholas’ masterpiece from yesterday, I am repeating it:

(courtesy Nicholas Biezanek)

GARGANTUAN PAPER PRECIOUS METAL FRAUD
NOW IN PLAIN SIGHT ON MANY FRONTS

Nicholas Biezanek

An irate London motorist asked an Irish meter maid why she had issued a parking violation. She replied “you cannot park at allon a single yellow line”. The motorist then asked as to the purpose of a double yellow line. She replied “you cannot park at all at all on a double yellow line”. Harvey Organ has been warning for a long time that there is virtually no precious metal at allin the COMEX depositories. If we look at some recent data, I think we can upgrade this warning to “there is no physical goldat allin the COMEX depositories”.

The CME issues daily updates on the status of gold and silver stored in its depositories. This data is not archived, so one must not miss a single daily download if a complete record is desired. I read about the filing of notices and the number of contracts standing for delivery and the number of contracts stopped, but that data tends to be fragmented and disparate and moreover, based on the revelations below, totally fictional. I then decided from 12thJuly 2019 to analyze these CME daily reports to see what the result would look like. Here is a summary of withdrawals from the CME USA depositories: (this summary involves no less than 78 daily CME data files).

12thJuly to 31 stJuly 2019

1stAugust to 31stAug 2019

Registered Gold

NIL

NIL

Registered Silver

NIL

NIL

Eligible Gold

0.09 tonnes

0.241 tonnes

Eligible Silver

2,357,813 troy ounces

8,736,111 troy ounces

August 2019 was a designated active delivery month for gold and yet there was NO delivery whatsoever of any physical gold from the registered categories at the COMEX (the only category, per contract law, from which trading commitments can be executed).This is hardly surprising considering that the registered inventory in both gold and silver is no more (less in the case of silver) than 1% of the open interest (details are provided below) What more evidence is needed that these depositories are taking more than unsustainable strain? The one and only COMEX ‘delivery’ game in play, therefore, is comprised of transactions styled as ‘EFP’s (refer below), and no one has any even remote visibility as to what is involved in these gargantuan yet totally opaque transfers. Indeed one could possibly assume that the CME releases these daily reports hoping that the reader will assume that withdrawals of gold/silver do occur in the registered category, but just not today. All it takes, however, is the daily discipline to download and save these reports to ascertain the true picture. David Jensen recently stated that only 0.04% of gold contracts in NY were settled by physical delivery; it would now seem (no, not ‘seem’ ,rather it is proven) that NIL is the new norm, irrespective of any fine words about the delivery side of the COMEX in daily action.

No wonder that every single CME report contains this disclaimer:

The information in this report is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however,

the Commodity Exchange, Inc. disclaims all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness.

This report is produced for information purposes only. ( Author’s comment-what makes the weekly COT report immune from such dire ‘health warnings’?)

(There was no movement at all in this period relating to the JP Morgan combined silver inventory of 153.7 million ounces. This inventory is the subject of much commentary, but, in the grand scheme of things, is a bit less than three months global mine supply (excluding Russia and China) and so is not that material-have a look at the total silver EFP volumes below to contextualize the figures )

Let us now review what little LBMA data is disseminated (90 days in arrears). Here is the profile of month end loco London vault holdings as up to date as possible. The December 2017/January 2018 profile is included since Harvey Organ has recorded the particulars of all reported EFP transfers from 1stJanuary 2018 onwards – tens of thousands of tonnes of these EFPs and virtually no meaningful impact on this profile:

There are several ETF funds in addition to GLD/SLV which warehouse their gold in loco London, so the net residual gold at the LBMA is quite a bit less than the figure computed above, but what would be the point of meticulous further microscopic analysis of historic data that is virtually useless in these days of real time utilization of information. Anyway, it is always assumed that just because shares are purchased in an ETF, then it follows that a commensurate increase in that ETF’s holding of physical gold/silver, as mandated in its prospectus, will automatically and instantaneously follow. That is a totally unwarranted assumption . At least the CME data enables an analysis of the full picture of August 2019 withdrawals by 2ndSeptember, or just one day later because of Labour Day. Also the UK’s own gold reserves are only 310 tonnes, so it would be a bit naïve to believe that the total gold in the BOE vaults (segregated in the above table) has not been impaired by BIS swap transactions (which the BIS freely acknowledges it instigates- from where else would the BIS source its ammunition?)

It is manifestly obvious that the core holdings of precious metal at the LBMA are permanently constrained within very restricted parameters, and hence the only physical gold/silver metal that leaves these loco London vaults is virtually equivalent to any inflows. The claims of the LBMA to stratospheric trading volumes merely relate to propaganda associated with the churning of undeliverable paper contracts in a zero sum game. But anyway this dribbling of delayed historic information is no more than disinformation in the absence of any details at all in respect of the true totality of all claims on this LBMA vaulted physical gold/silver; the only certainty is that such claims are many multiples of the available metal.This is not surprising given that the ongoing alleged viability of the entire global financial system is now predicated on the inexorable crescendo of criminal fractional reserving practices, uber rehypothecation and the Ponzi scheme embodied in the unbridled proliferation of sovereign debt.

The COMEX, on a daily basis now, serially engineers Exchange for Physical (EFP) transfers over to the LBMA, so that the open interest does not go stratospheric .Let us, however, first refresh our minds in respect of the open interest farce:

Open Interest (o/i) at 31st August 2019

Gold(Tonnes)

Silver (000,000 ozs)

Total o/i

1,925

1,121

Registered Inv.

24

9

o/i Cover

1.225%

0.779%

Eligible inv.

236

230

Total Comex Inv.

259

239

o/i Cover

13.464%

21.288%

Since 1stJanuary 2018 (but certainly in existence prior to this date) the volume of EFP transfers until 31stAugust 2019 is as follows (data from Harvey Organ):

Gold (Tonnes)

Silver (000,000 ozs)

1st Jan 2018 to 31st Dec 2018

7,310

2,847

To 31st August 2019

4,151

1,550

Total for 20 months

11,461

4,397

20 months EFPs/Global Annual Mine Production

About 4.5 years

About 6 years

The criminals have now abusively over utilized these EFPs on a daily basis to such an extent that it is manifestly obvious today that the term ‘physical’ has been high jacked in the false and misleading nomenclature attributable to this manipulative charade. These EFP volumes are of such magnitude that the only certainty is that absolutely no physical metal is involved. Annual global mine supply (ex Russia/ China) is about 200 tonnes per month in the case of gold and about 55 (could be 60) million ounces of silver per month.

My personal interpretation of the LBMA market is as follows:

Unallocated accounts: this is a transaction whereby a fiat ‘loan’ is made to an LBMA principal, and the transaction can be redeemed by accepting a fiat settlement only, priced on the current manipulated paper price of gold/silver ,but certainly no physical metal is involved at all.

EFP transfers from COMEX TO LBMA: even if the terms of the underlying agreements are ‘ad hoc’ and not standardized (who knows?), the liability for delivery is assumed by an LBMA principal, who cannot possibly deliver ,so the counter party exacts ‘special/onerous’ terms as incentivization for not demanding physical delivery. Please refer to Harvey Organ re the ‘conspiracy to defraud’ embodied in the (non) reporting to the regulator by the banks in respect of these liabilities styled as “serial forward contract obligations under 14 days “

Allocated accounts: this is a transaction whereby a congenital idiot labours under the delusion that his fully funded and numbered .995 finesse gold bars are available for delivery on demand, whereas these bars have long ago been re-refined to .9999 finesse and shipped eastwards (aka re-hypothecation-‘‘you lose , you get nothing ,good day sir “.) GATA and others have referred to numerous examples of such “failures to deliver”.

It was inevitable that the meagre physical inventory at the COMEX would become (indeed has long ago become) totally inadequate to satisfy demand for physical delivery but any crisis of failure to deliver has been temporarily suppressed by the creation of all these EFP transfers. The form of these EFP contracts is unknown as is the identity and intentions of the counterparties. The EFP volumes recorded above embody an orgy of excess that has completely shredded any pretext of ultimate deliverability and yet the regulators refuse to even acknowledge that any query merits the dignity of an acknowledgement, let alone a response. When does all this insanity reach a denouement? Perhaps the success hitherto in suppressing the gold price became a catalyst for the hubris of consigning positive interest rates to the dustbin of history and the euphoric philosophy that the limitless proliferation of sovereign debt need no longer be constrained in the absence of any associated interest burden. China and Russia have accumulated possibly as much as 30,000 tonnes of physical gold each (unless you have personally audited the extensive network of vaults under the Kremlin and microscopically performed the calculus relating to Chinese gold importation and domestic production over the years, any contra opinion you may hold is as weighty as a dandelion blowing in the wind). The end game is easy to forecast and the headline price of gold will not be set for ever by the frantic supply of gargantuan volumes of undeliverable naked short and fraudulent paper promises. Whilst the BOE governor (a Canadian from a country that has disposed of all its gold reserves) recently, at Jackson Hole, made suggestions about creating a hermetic cyber seal to encapsulate fiat digital ‘air’ to create an alternative to the fiat US$ as a reserve currency, the new One Belt One Roadtrading bloc (eventually encompassing more than two thirds of the global population) will indeed re instate an alternative, and it could not be more obvious that it will incorporate a gold standard. The pure unadulterated insanity of Western Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is a wonderful encapsulation of the immortal words of Tacitus; “those whom the Gods wish to destroy they first make mad”.

Post script: GATA has been in existence for at least two decades, and I have been a member for about 15 years. Initially the seminal work of Frank Veneroso heavily influenced GATA’s early writings, and Veneroso estimated that the manipulation of the physical gold price via swaps/loans/leases etc. would ‘hit a brick wall’ between 2011 and 2013 as physical metal supply dried up. Obviously the manipulators managed to engineer even more suppressive techniques than were factored into computations back in the ‘eighties’. Limitless, naked short, undeliverable, fraudulent paper gold promises aided by incessant MSM propaganda and infinite CB fiat resources and CME/LBMA accommodation and regulatory complicity proved to be a bit more overwhelming and formidable than initial forecasts. August 2019 has witnessed the decimation of some serious and well established chart resistance levels in respect of the precious metals; GATA has been predicting for about a decade such price action (aka a commercial signal failure) that eventually will culminate in a price ‘moon shot’ as the physical market assumes its rightful hegemony . Some commentators outside GATA have even estimated that the fractional reserving of paper promises to available physical gold/silver could even be in a ratio of up to 500/1.

end

Are the boys still engaging in spoofing despite their criminal guilty plea??  You can bet the farm that they are

(courtesy Chris Marcus/Arcadia Economics)

Arcadia Economics

Was The August 13th Gold And Silver Plunge A JP Morgan “Spoof”?

September 4, 2019

There have been more recent arrests by the Department of Justice in their precious metals investigation. And when you consider the timeline, it’s interesting to wonder whether JP Morgan or other banks are actually continuing to “spoof” and manipulate the price of gold and silver. Even while they’re simultaneously being investigated and having their employees arrested!

Christian Trunz was working as an executive director at J.P. Morgan up until August 20th when he “pleaded guilty to criminal charges of manipulating the precious metals markets for nine years”.

The CNBC article by Dawn Giel also mentioned that like the other 2 traders who have already pleaded guilty to “spoofing the market” (one is a former JP Morgan employee, and the other worked for Scotia Capital and Bear Stearns – which was taken over by JP Morgan), he “admitted learning the illegal trading tactics from senior traders at the bank and to using those tactics with the knowledge and consent of supervisors.”

All three of the articles about the arrests mention that it was a widespread practice at the traders’ firms, and that it was done with the knowledge of their supervisors. So this wasn’t just some rogue junior traders. This was being condoned from a higher level. And given that Trunz was actually still working at JP Morgan when he was arrested, was he, his colleagues, his supervisors, or his peers at some of these other banks responsible for what happened to the silver and gold prices only a week earlier on August 13?

When the price of both metals spiked downward, at the exact same time, on no known news or fundamentals that I, or any of the other silver experts that I regularly interview on my show have been able to identify.


(chart courtesy of kitco.com)


(chart courtesy of kitco.com)

Now if you’re wondering what “spoofing” actually means, the article mentions that “in his guilty plea, Trunz admitted that from approximately July 2007 and August 2016 he placed thousands of orders that he did not intent to execute for gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures contracts.”

In one of the other cases, “Corey Flaum (the former Scotia Bank and Bear Stearns trader) during his guilty plea admitted that from approximately June 2007 and July 2016 he placed thousands of orders to manipulate the prices of gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures contracts according to the Justice Department.”

So they were placing trades they didn’t intend on executing in order to manipulate the price. Which former CFTC commissioner Bart Chilton, who oversaw the agency’s investigation into silver manipulation, also elaborated further on in the interview I did with him earlier this year.

Chris MarcusYou mentioned spoofing. And I’m curious, because my understanding of how some of the manipulation has occurred is that if silver is trading $20.05, there are a lot of stop orders placed around the $20 handle. And often, if the price can get pushed a little bit, then you get a lot of those high frequency algorithms kicking in, and you see a drop, with many feeling that the people nudging the price a little, are the same ones buying it back lower.

Does that sound like a reasonably accurate portrayal to put it in perspective for folks? Or would you phrase it differently?

Bart Chilton: Well, it’s a good portrayal. Actually, it’s a very good portrayal.

But it’s actually also a reflection of what I was just speaking about. How trading has changed. Even back in 2008, 2009, 2010, and maybe a little bit of 2011, even when a lot of these silver trades, and some gold trades were pretty suspect, when you were looking at them, you didn’t have high frequency traders in these markets like you do today.

The difference in your description is that today, when a market moves because of a spoof, it could move a lot more.

So while I don’t have access to the trading records that the CFTC and the DOJ have (although if you’d like to send them or your local Congressional representatives this article by all means go ahead), what happened on August 13th sure seems to match what Bart and the guilty pleas describe.

Additionally, the guilty pleas mention that the specific instances they were confessing to occurred between 2007-2016. Which is really the time when this started becoming more blatant. Hopefully the CFTC or DOJ will comment soon. Because exactly what they describe as the violation that the traders are getting arrested for appears to be continuing to occur. As they’re getting arrested!

Each article also mentions that the defendants “are also cooperating with federal prosecutors in ongoing probes of major banks.” And that “the Justice Department is conducting multiple criminal investigations into big banks with the cooperation of traders who have pleaded guilty to spoofing-related crimes.”

Which JP Morgan has even mentioned in the legal section of one of their financial disclosures: “Various authorities, including the Department of Justice’s Criminal Division, are conducting investigations relating to trading practices in the precious metals markets and related conduct. The Firm is responding to and cooperating with these investigations.”

It will be interesting to see how the case unfolds, because at the same time the manipulation is becoming more public knowledge, the market is also rallying. Which means that many of these same banks who have been short the market are currently losing money on their positions. At the same time some of them are being investigated (Scotia appears to be on the verge of exiting the market). And the central banks are getting ready to start QE again.

As always, if you have any questions about this article you can email me here. And to stay updated on the case, just subscribe to future Arcadia updates in the box below.

Chris Marcus

September 4, 2019

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 67.1448/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.1400   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 28.45 POINTS OR 0.96%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 7.70 POINTS OR 0.03%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 436.80 POINTS OR 2.12%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT THE HAPLESS BRITS/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.17/Euro RISES TO 1.1063

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.26/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.70/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 56.10 and Brent: 60.80

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.61%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 0.90% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.22%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.51: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.59

3k Gold at $1444.50 silver at: 19.34   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 23/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.93

3m oil into the 56 dollar handle for WTI and 60 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.70 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9828 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0873 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.61%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.51% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.01%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6835..

Global Stocks, US Futures Surge As China, US Set To Restart Trade Talks

In a world where every single trading day’s mood is set by the latest trade war news, headlines, rumors and innunedo, it should come as no surprise that following news that the US and China are set to agreed to restart high-level trade talks in early October in Washington, that global stocks and US equity futures will be another sea of green, with the S&P jumping 26 point and now just 2% below its all time highs.

 

The latest round of talks, which was announced just 4 days after even higher tariffs were slapped on US and Chinese goods, was agreed to in a phone call between Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and USTR Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, China’s commerce ministry said in a statement on its website. China’s central bank governor Yi Gang was also on the call.

“Both sides agreed that they should work together and take practical actions to create good conditions for consultations,” the ministry said. “Lead negotiators from both sides had a really good phone call this morning,” ministry spokesman Gao Feng said in a weekly briefing. “We’ll strive to achieve substantial progress during the 13th Sino-U.S. high-level negotiations in early October.”

 

The glimmer of hope in the global trade war – officials from the U.S. and China had been struggling to agree on new talks – added to a broad risk-on mood that took hold Wednesday, when British lawmakers moved to block an imminent no-deal Brexit and Hong Kong’s leader sought to quell unrest in Asia’s key financial hub. Focus will now shift to remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the latest U.S. jobs report, both due Friday, amid expectations for further monetary easing.

While it is virtually certain that nothing tangible will emerge from this latest attempt at de-escalation, which is meant to calm the popular mood around China’s October 1 National Day holiday, it was predictably sufficient to boost algo trading optimism and sent stocks sharply higher around the globe.

Indeed, news of the early October talks lifted most Asian share markets on Thursday, raising hopes these can de-escalate the U.S.-China trade war before it inflicts further damage on the global economy. Asian stocks climbed, led by technology firms and material producers. Almost all markets in the region were up, with Japan leading gains. The Topix jumped 1.8% for its biggest gain since July 19, as electronics firms and machinery makers advanced. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1%, buoyed by large insurers and banks, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed little changed following a 3.9% rally on Wednesday. China’s cabinet signaled further monetary easing to counter economic headwinds. India’s Sensex dropped 0.1% as investors assessed waning economic growth

European stocks followed Asia’s lead, pushing higher on renewed trade optimism as China and the U.S. are set resume talks next month. The Stoxx Euro

pe 600 Index rose for a second day, led by technology, autos and industrials, with every major national benchmark except the U.K.’s FTSE 100 in the green and carmakers setting the pace.  Traders ignored the latest batch of dismal German economic data, which saw German industrial orders fell more than expected in July on weak demand from abroad, suggesting that struggling manufacturers could tip Europe’s biggest economy into a recession in the third quarter. Orders for “Made in Germany” goods were down 2.7% from the previous month in July, driven by a big drop in bookings from non-euro zone countries. Consensus had expected a -1.5% drop. The June reading was revised up to an increase of 2.7 from a previously reported 2.5% increase.

 

“The misery in manufacturing continues. The decline in new orders significantly increases the risk of a recession for the German economy,” VP Bank analyst Thomas Gitzel said.  “The danger is great that negative growth will also be recorded in the third quarter,” Gitzel added, eyeing the possibility of a technical recession after German GDP contracted by -0.1% in Q2, with Q3 GDP now widely expected to shrink as well.

Bond yields rose across most curves, with 10-yr bund and UST yields rising 3bps and 5bps, respectively.  European yields curves steepened across the board as investors take heed of the doubters in the European Central Bank over a fresh package of quantitative easing.China’s government bonds advanced as sentiment got a boost from Beijing’s call for monetary easing and inclusion in a major global index. The yield on 10-year sovereign bonds fell 3 basis points to 3.02%, the lowest since Aug. 15. China’s cabinet has called for the “timely” use of tools such as reserve-ratio cuts to support the economy. Adding to the optimism, JPMorgan said it will include some onshore bonds into its benchmark emerging-market indexes, a move that would spur capital inflows. Meanwhile, traders are bracing for a PBOC cut in the RRR: “China is starting a new round of easing,” said Ming Ming, head of fixed-income research at Citic, adding the 10-year government yield could fall toward 2.8%. “The central bank will likely reduce broad RRR and also ease in a targeted manner to support smaller companies. We also can’t rule out a cut to interest rates.”

In FX, the pound added to Wednesday’s big gains following Parliament’s move to block both a no-deal exit from the European Union and an early British election. The dollar fell for a third day, sliding 0.1% lower, while the euro edged higher despite disappointing factory data in Germany. The SEK lead G-10 gains after the country’s central bank defied expectations it would turn more dovish, sticking with its plan to withdraw stimulus from the biggest Nordic economy.

Elsewhere, West Texas oil fluctuated. Florida orange groves seemingly escaped major damage from Hurricane Dorian, but concern is now turning to soy, corn and cotton fields as well as livestock in Georgia and the Carolinas as the storm churns northward.

Today, US investors will look forward to several big data points, including Challenger job cuts, jobless claims and services

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.8% to 2,962.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 385.24
  • MXAP up 1.1% to 155.32
  • MXAPJ up 0.8% to 502.11
  • Nikkei up 2.1% to 21,085.94
  • Topix up 1.8% to 1,534.46
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.03% to 26,515.53
  • Shanghai Composite up 1% to 2,985.87
  • Sensex down 0.4% to 36,593.44
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 6,613.17
  • Kospi up 0.8% to 2,004.75
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.7 bps to -0.647%
  • Euro down 0.02% to $1.1033
  • Brent Futures up 0.2% to $60.83/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 6.3 bps to 0.472%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 4.8 bps to 0.197%
  • Gold spot down 0.7% to $1,541.85
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.08% to 98.37

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Boris Johnson was humiliated by Parliament for a second day running, with his do-or-die Brexit strategy derailed and even his plan for a general election rejected. But having bet everything on getting Britain out of the European Union by Oct. 31, he can’t back down.
  • China and the U.S. announced that face- to-face negotiations aimed at ending their tariff war will be held in Washington in the coming weeks, amid skepticism on both sides that any substantive progress can be made.
  • Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam said her decision to scrap extradition legislation was only the “first step” to addressing the city’s unrest, but resisted protesters’ calls to immediately meet the rest of their demand
  • Mario Draghi’s bid to reactivate bond purchases in a final salvo of stimulus is being threatened by the biggest pushback on policy ever seen during his eight-year reign as European Central Bank president.
  • German factory orders fell in July, aggravating an industrial slump that has pushed Europe’s largest economy to the brink of recession. Demand fell 2.7% from June, when it rose at the same pace, as orders from outside the euro region plunged

Asian equity markets traded higher across the board as the region took impetus from the upside in global peers after dovish Fed rhetoric and positive developments in Hong Kong in which the extradition bill was fully withdrawn, while US-China trade hopes exacerbated the gains after the sides agreed to hold talks in Washington early next month. ASX 200 (+0.9%) and Nikkei 225 (+2.1%) were boosted by the trade developments and with the energy sector frontrunning the gains in Australia due to the recent advances in oil prices, while exporter names in Tokyo benefitted from a weaker currency. Hang Seng (U/C) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.0%) conformed to the heightened risk appetite after the phone call between China’s Vice Premier Liu He with US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and USTR Lighthizer in which the sides also agreed on trade consultations mid-September ahead of next month’s talks and will take action to create good conditions for the consultations. Furthermore, expectations of PBoC easing after China’s Cabinet announced it will implement RRR reductions ‘in time’ have added to the optimism, although the advances in Hong Kong were restricted considering its benchmark had already surged just shy of 1000 points or a near-4% gain yesterday due to the extradition bill withdrawal. Finally, 10yr JGBs briefly slipped below the 155.00 level amid pressure across global bond futures triggered by the US-China trade talk announcement, although prices later nursed some of the losses after a mostly firmer than previous 30yr JGB auction.

Top Asian News

  • Thailand’s Death Toll From Tropical Storms, Floods Rises to 16
  • Singapore’s CXA Says Seeking $50 Million in New Funding Round
  • China Strongly Opposes Escalation of Trade War, Gao Says
  • Indonesia Allows Miners to Add Export Quotas; Nickel Tumbles

A positive session thus far for most of the major European bourses [Eurostoxx 50 +0.8%] as the region follows suit from a mostly positive Asia-Pac session as trade optimism bolstered sentiment after China’s Mofcom announced a US/China meeting in Washington next month, although an explicit date has not been reported. UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.7%) is the laggard and has slipped further due to a strengthening GBP after UK PM Johnson received a double whammy with UK Parliament voting to pass the bill to delay Brexit and defeated the PM’s bid for snap elections. Sectors are mixed with the IT sector the clear outperformer as chip names rally on US-China optimism; meanwhile defensive sectors are in the red amid the risk appetite. In terms of individual movers, Equinor (+7.9%) shares spiked higher after the Co. began a USD 5bln share buyback programme which is to be completed at the end of 2020. Elsewhere, Safran (+6.1%) and Melrose (+6.3%) rose on the back of earnings. On the flip side, William Hill (-1.7%) shares opened lower following on from the resignation of its CEO.

Top European News

  • Drop in German Factory Orders Aggravates Recession Risk
  • Italy’s New Finance Minister Is a Peace Offering to Europe
  • Equinor Jumps After Starting $5 Billion Buyback Program
  • Thyssenkrupp DAX Ouster a Sign of the Times for Struggling Group

In FX, The Swedish Crown is rallying in wake of the Riksbank policy meeting as a hike by the end of 2019 or in Q1 next year is still on the agenda even though the accompanying statement acknowledged looser monetary policy elsewhere, a deterioration in sentiment and included the caveat that the Central Bank will adjust rates if prospects for the domestic economy and inflation change. Moreover, the projected repo path was lowered and the Riksbank reiterated the need to proceed with caution. Nevertheless, Eur/Sek has tested support below 10.7000 in the form of the 100 DMA on relative policy outlooks given that the ECB is widely tipped to unleash more stimulus next week.

  • NOK/NZD/AUD/CAD/GBP – Although Statistics Norway believes rates have peaked, the Norges Bank retains guidance for a further 25 bp tightening by the end of the year, and Eur/Nok is also retreating further from recent peaks amidst a broad upturn in risk sentiment with the cross eyeing 9.9250. Elsewhere, the Kiwi and Aussie are also buoyed by reports that the US and China are planning to hold trade talks in early October, while the Loonie is extending its post-BoC gains (less dovish than expected stance) through 1.3200. However, the Antipodean Dollars have switched places as Nzd/Usd builds a firmer base above 0.6350 and Aud/Usd is capped around 0.6825 with the Aud/Nzd cross topping out just above 1.0700 accordingly, perhaps in response to overnight Australian trade data revealing a moderately narrower than forecast surplus. Note also, decent option expiries between 0.6790-0.6800 may be hampering the Aussie. Meanwhile, a generally softer Greenback (DXY just off another new recent low, at 98.185, and under a key 50% Fib level of 98.464) alongside manoeuvres in Westminster to block a no deal Brexit continue to prop up the Pound, with Cable nudging above 1.2300, to just shy of 1.2350 at best, and Eur/Gbp back down under 0.9000 even though the single currency is outpacing the Buck as well.
  • EUR/JPY/CHF – All narrowly mixed vs the Usd, as the Euro edges further above 1.1000 to test offer and option expiry interest at 1.1050 where 1.6 bn resides, but the Yen and Franc lose a bit more safe-haven appeal on the aforementioned improvement in market morale, with Usd/Jpy and Usd/Chf pivoting 106.50 and 0.9825 respectively.
  • EM – Some loss of recovery momentum for the Lira ahead of next Thursday’s CBRT rate verdict as Turkish President Erdogan contends that more cuts are coming, while the Rand’s bull run has been somewhat hampered by worse than expected SA Q2 current account metrics. Usd/Try has bounced from circa 5.6500 and Usd/Zar is firmer after a temporary dip below 14.7500, but the PBoC set its Usd/Cny reference rate a smidge lower against the recent trend.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures are relatively flat as the benchmarks take a breather yesterday’s above 4% rally which was fuelled by heightened risk appetite, a weaker USD and geopolitical tensions after US imposed sanctions, targeting the shipping network controlled by the IRGC, whilst last night’s surprise build in API crude stocks (+0.401mln vs. Exp. -2.5mln) did little to sway prices. WTI remains above the 56.0/bbl with its 200 and 50 DMAs at 56.13/bbl and 56.19/bbl respectively, meanwhile its Brent counterpart re-eyes 61.0/bbl to the upside. Next up, participants will be eyeing the delayed release of the weekly DoE crude stocks at 1600BST/1100EDT with the headline expected to print a drawdown of 2.488mln barrels. Traders may also take note of US production, which reached a record of 12.5mln BPD last week, ahead of next week’s JMMC meeting (12th Sept). Elsewhere, gold has retreated further below the 1550/oz despite a weaker USD amid safe-haven outflows whilst the risk appetite buoys copper and iron, with the former reclaiming 2.60/lb to the upside.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 148,000, prior 156,000
  • 8:30am: Nonfarm Productivity, est. 2.2%, prior 2.3%; Unit Labor Costs, est. 2.4%, prior 2.4%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,000, prior 215,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.69m, prior 1.7m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 62.5
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 50.9, prior 50.9; Markit US Composite PMI, prior 50.9
  • 10am: Factory Orders, est. 1.0%, prior 0.6%; Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 0.1%
  • 10am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 2.1%, prior 2.1%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. -0.4%, prior -0.4%
  • 10am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.4%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.7%
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, est. 54, prior 53.7

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

There will be a lot of tears at home today although I’m not sure who will shed the most between my wife, daughter or me. Little Maisie starts at nursery today at the school she’ll be at until she’s 13 – assuming she’s not expelled. She may cry the least as I know my wife will be in floods of tears. As for me I’ve just paid my first ever school fees cheque and the tears will start to flow when I realise how many more years I’ll be paying for my children. I’m pretty sure it’ll be into the 2040s.

I’m half wondering whether we’ll still be debating Brexit into the 2040s. Yesterday in isolation was another dramatic day and the Government suffered another two big headline defeats including one asking for an election on October 15th (it still may happen). However given recent events, in a wider context the session wasn’t that remarkable so we’ll push the Brexit news down the pecking order to give you all a break. We may all need to pace ourselves over the coming weeks.

After the gloominess of Tuesday’s bad US manufacturing ISM print, markets staged a recovery yesterday as the service sector ISM in China and Europe held up reasonably well. Signs of political tensions easing in Hong Kong, Italy and hints of China stimulus helped. Not to break my promise but the fact that the no deal Brexit probabilities decreased a little also seemed to help a bit. Today’s US non-manufacturing ISM is going to be pretty important as to near term direction.

The positive momentum is continuing overnight as China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement that Vice Premier Liu He agreed to a visit “in early October” to Washington during an overnight telephone call with the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. Meanwhile, the statement from the USTR’s office was a bit more cautious in nature and stated that ministerial-level discussions will take place in “the coming weeks,” without specifying when. The Chinese commerce ministry added that lower-level officials will have “serious” discussions this month to prepare for the talks while the USTR said that deputies will seek “to lay the ground-work for meaningful progress.”

Adding to the positive sentiment this morning, Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam told a news conference that her decision to formally withdraw the controversial bill allowing extraditions to China and other moves would only be the “first step to break the deadlock in society.” She further said, “it’s obvious to many of us the discontentment in society extends far beyond the bill,” and “We can discuss all these deep-seated issues in our dialogue platform to be established.”

This morning in Asia markets are moving up with the Nikkei (+2.30%), Shanghai Comp (+1.56%) and Kospi (+1.12%) all up. Hang Seng is up a more modest +0.38% after it advanced +3.90% yesterday. In FX, the Japanese yen is down -0.16% while the Chinese onshore yuan is up +0.17% to 7.1340. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.90% while the yield on the 10y UST is up 3.7bps this morning and the 2y yield is up 4.5bps. In commodities, spot gold prices are down -0.47% to 1545.17/ troy ounce while copper futures are up c. +2.46%.

For yesterday, the S&P 500 closed up +1.09% as cyclical sectors led the move while the NASDAQ and DOW ended +1.30% and +0.91% respectively. The broad rally came despite further confrontational comments from President Trump, who described the trade war with China by saying “to me, this is much more important than the economy,” perhaps undermining the view that he will prove to be responsive to economic pain. Energy was a significant driver, with energy stocks gaining +1.39% as WTI oil rallied +4.47%, its best day in two months. Crude was helped by evidence that the US is tightening sanctions on Iranian oil as well as comments from Russian energy minister Novak which signalled lower domestic production this month. As a result, HY spreads also tightened -3.5bps. Investment grade spreads traded -0.9bps tighter, amid a cascade of issuance (a reported $54bn over the last two days) as companies take advantage of low yields. Even though US IG spreads are +56bps wider from their lows last year, IG yields are at their lowest levels in three years at 2.79%.

Bond yields spent most of the first half of the day climbing with 10yr Gilts and Bunds +10.7bps and +6.8bps higher at their peak. However they closed up +8.7bps and +3.2bps respectively but with Gilts still seeing the largest move since April. In the US, Treasuries sold off as much as +4.0bps but retraced to close flat after some dovish Fedspeak. As you’ll see above yields are back up in the Asian session. US 2s10s steepened back into positive territory at 2.5bps, the highest since 20 August. Bucking the yield sell off trend in Europe was Italy which rallied another -6.4bps to 0.81% on the back of the announcement of Conte’s new ministers including Roberto Gualtieri as finance minister which was seen as market friendly, especially towards Europe. In any case, yesterday move means that the spread to Bunds is now down to 148.5bps. Just a -90bps move in less than a month then.

So to Brexit. As expected after the prior day’s proceeding, MPs voted in favour of legislation that seeks to avoid a no-deal Brexit, and then went on to reject Prime Minister Johnson’s call for a general election. The argument is mostly on the grounds that the legislation to prevent no-deal should be passed into law first.

The Press Association has reported overnight citing new chief whip Lord Ashton of Hyde that the UK government has agreed that all stages of legislation designed to stop a no-deal Brexit on Oct. 31 will be completed in the House of Lords by Friday 5pm. If Mr Johnson wants an election it is arguably now in his interest for this to be fast tracked and then argue that nothing now stops the country going to the polls. Suggestions are that there could be another vote on Monday for a General Election after the bill has been fully locked down. However it would not be impossible for the opposition parties to stall beyond that and put Mr Johnson into a very difficult situation. They would have to weigh this up against how it would look to the electorate if they were seemingly running scared of a poll. Indeed overnight, the BBC has reported that Labour’s Mr Corbyn will not allow an election before October 31 Brexit date. A few more fascinating days ahead.

Sterling rallied, up +1.21% against the dollar to $1.223 as markets perceived the likelihood of a no-deal exit to have fallen now that MPs have backed the principle of another extension. The rally came in spite of the UK services PMI coming in at 50.6 (vs. 51.0 expected), which along with the sub-50 manufacturing and construction PMIs earlier in the week suggest that the UK economy could be on course for another contraction this quarter.

Gilts may have taken some additional signalling from Chancellor Sajid Javid that there would be a review of the current fiscal framework ahead of the Budget. This spending round just covered 2020-21, with the next multi-year review planned for next year, but there was a real-term increase in day-to-day departmental spending of 4.1% compared to 2019-20, the biggest in 15 years. Anyone would think there was an election around the corner.

And finally on the UK, Governor Carney testified before the Treasury Select Committee, where the Bank of England’s updated assessment of the worst-case Brexit scenario was less severe than previously, as a result of progress in preparations for a no-deal exit. In this worst-case scenario, they now see a peak-to-trough fall in GDP of 5.5%, rather than 8% as before. It’s worth noting though that this is a worst-case scenario rather than a forecast of the most likely outcome.

Meanwhile as discussed above, Treasuries and global bonds did catch a bid after some of the Fedspeak yesterday. Kaplan said that risks to his forecasts are to the downside and that it’s “relevant that Fed Funds is above the whole yield curve”. Williams highlighted the usual series of headwinds affecting the US economy, but interestingly also referenced recent downward revisions to GDP and payrolls as signalling less momentum than previously thought. That was the first instance of a Fed official making this argument and bolsters the case for additional rate cuts. Evans said later in the day that “there’s increased uncertainty among the business community as a result of the new trade policy.” Later in the day, the Fed’s beige book of economic commentary indicated that the US economy expanded modestly in August, as “concerns regarding tariffs and trade uncertainty continued, (but) the majority of businesses remained optimistic.”

Over in Europe there was some anticipation ahead of ECB Chief Economist Lane’s speech. However it ended up a non-event with the presentation almost entirely technical in nature. This means we’re still starved of comments from the important trio of Draghi, Lane, and Coeure. Early in the morning we did hear from incoming ECB President Lagarde however, where some of the notable takeaways included agreement with the view of the Governing Council that a highly accommodative policy is warranted but also that “there are important questions on the horizon.” She also emphasized the side effects of policy easing and said that there needs to be a cost benefit analysis. At the margin she seems to be hinting at a slightly more concerned view as to the side effects of extreme monetary policy than Draghi has. Early days though.

European Banks got a boost from her comments, closing up +1.21% and outperforming the STOXX 600 (+0.89%). Staying with Europe, the final PMIs didn’t really move the dial all that much but there was some relief that they are not following manufacturing lower at the moment. The services reading was revised up 0.1pts to 53.5 for the Euro Area which left the composite at 51.9 versus 51.5 in July. The data for France and Germany was a little bit stronger along with Spain where the services reading rose 1.4pts to 54.3 (vs. 53.0 expected). However Italy disappointed with the services reading dropping 1.1pts to 50.6 (vs. 51.6 expected).

In the US the July trade deficit was a touch wider than expected at $54.0bn. The prior month was revised wider as well, weakening the trend for US net exports. As a result, the Atlanta Fed’s third quarter GDP forecast fell another 0.2pp to 1.5%, with the downward revisions concentrated in consumption and business equipment spending. Later on the August vehicle sales data surprised on the upside with reading at 16.97m (vs. 16.80m expected).

To the day ahead now, which this morning includes July new factory orders in Germany and August new car registrations for the UK. In the US this afternoon it’s a busy session for data. We’ve got the August ADP employment report, final Q2 nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs revisions, jobless claims, the final August PMI revisions, July factory orders and final capital and durable goods revisions, and last but by no means least the August ISM non-manufacturing print. If that wasn’t enough then we’re also due to hear from the ECB’s Guindos at two separate events this morning and the BoE’s Tenreyro.

 

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 28.45 POINTS OR 0.96%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 7.70 POINTS OR 0.03%   /The Nikkei closed UP 436.80 POINTS OR 2.12%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .97%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.1448 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN EXCEPT LONDON//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.1448 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1400  TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Japan/South Korea

My goodness the rift between South Korea and Japan intensifies.  The South Koreans have not forgot about World War ii.  Exports of Japanese beer falls by an unbelievable 97%

(zerohedge)

 

Japanese Beer Exports To South Korea Plunge 97% As Trade Tensions Intensify

In the latest sign that the trade spat between Japan and South Korea is intensifying, South Korean imports of Japanese beer have fallen 97% in August, according to a local newspaper report that was picked up by Bloomberg.

South Korea imported only $223,000 worth of Japanese beer in the month, down from $7.57 million a year earlier, according to the Maeil Business Newspaper, which cited preliminary data from Korea Customs Service.

During every year since 2010, Japan has occupied the No. 1 spot for South Korea, with sales surging more than 6x by 2018 to $78.3 million.

The boycott of Japanese goods has spread since Tokyo first imposed export restrictions on key chip materials in July, and worsened as the spat grew to include South Korea’s preferential trade status and an intelligence-sharing agreement.

Asahi Group Holdings Ltd., Kirin Holdings Co. and Sapporo Holdings Ltd., Japan’s largest publicly-traded breweries, all export beer to South Korea. And all have identified the South Korean market as having major growth potential.

Consumer-facing brands have been hit particularly hard, with consumers boycotting clothing from Fast Retailing Co.’s Uniqlo, and sales of Japanese cars also falling. Tourism to Japan, a key economic driver of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government, has also been impacted as Korean tourists cancel travel plans and airlines scale back flights.

Some contend that trade wars have no winners. However, shares in South Korean brewer Hite Jinro Co. have risen to their highest level in more than a year as its new year has sold remarkably well.

3 C CHINA

China/USA

Seems that the Chinese media are ignoring Trump’s tweets

(zerohedge)

 

Chinese Equity Markets Are Starting To Ignore President Trump’s Trade-Related Tweets

President Trump’s use of Twitter to update the world on the ongoing trade war with China has put the social media platform in the spotlight globally – especially for equity traders, according to Bloomberg. As global markets and market participants react almost daily to Trump’s Twitter clues on how trade tensions are faring, there’s one part of the world that’s starting to grow numb to Trump’s social media posts: China. 

There’s a couple of reasons that China is starting to ignore Trump’s tweets.

  • First, China doesn’t have easy access to them, since the social media service is banned there.
  • Additionally, the President’s tweets often occur outside of Chinese trading hours, causing them to have less of an effect on Chinese markets than U.S. markets.
  • Finally, the novelty simply seems to be wearing off.  

Zhang Haidong, a fund manager at Jinkuang Investment Management in Shanghai said:

 “It’s pointless following him too closely — he might say something today and it will be a whole different story tomorrow. Trading off his tweets alone would be too volatile.”

Trump has constantly moved markets with tweets on a vast array of topics, including China, North Korea, Amazon and Harley Davdison. He has downplayed the impact he has had on markets, however. After being asked about a market move lower last month, Trump responded: “…don’t tell me about 600 points.”

Trump’s tweets have moved Chinese markets in the past, but his influence there is waning. Back on May 6, two tweets from Trump sent global markets plunging, with the Shanghai Composite falling 5.6% – its biggest drop in more than 3 years. China’s own Twitter-like platform scrambled to remove posts about Trump’s comments. Volatility in Shanghai shot to 3 year highs.

But since then, the effect of Trump’s tweets have worn off. Bloomberg offered two more recent examples:

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.9% Wednesday as traders shrugged off Trump’s Tuesday tweet that said a trade deal with China would be much tougher if he’s re-elected. Declines on the gauge were also limited to 1.4% when Trump announced more tariffs in early August and later that month. The 50-day volatility measure is now near the lowest since February last year.

Fu Gang, a fund manager with Shanghai River East Asset Management Advisory Ltd. said: “People have very low expectations for a trade war resolution and valuations have fully priced that in.”

Trump’s tweets in China have to be shared in chat groups on places like WeChat, but the delay doesn’t seem to be a concern. 

Lin Qi, fund manager at Lingze Capital said:

 “These tweets have a very short-term effect on the market so second-hand sources like screenshots or news reports are enough — we’re in it for the mid-to-long term.”

Elle Shi, fund manager at Manulife Teda Fund Management Co. said:

 “When the trade war first started, the market fluctuated as people reacted emotionally. Now everyone recognizes this will be a long-term negotiation process.”

Liang Jinxin, a strategist with Tianfeng Securities Co. concluded:

“I’m growing numb to all this. Just buy when the markets drop on the bad news, as you know that will be followed by good news after a while.”

Despite the ongoing trade war, China’s Shanghai Composite is up 19% this year. The Yuan, on the other hand, endured its worst month versus the dollar on record in August. 

end
HONG KONG
As promised, the protests will not end: today masked men firebombed the home of a Hong Kong Media tycoon. More protests are planned.  I guess “if you let the tear gas out of the bottle you can not get it back” as stated by Bill Blain
(zerohedge)

Masked Men Firebomb Home Of Hong Kong Media Tycoon

The verdict is in: Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam’s attempt to pacify furious pro-democracy protesters by fully withdrawing the extradition bill that inspired the at-times-violent protests hasn’t worked. Protesters took to the streets Wednesday night (local time) shortly after Lam withdrew the bill, and more rallies are scheduled for this weekend, including another sit-in at Hong Kong International Airport, which – if the recent past is any guide – will likely turn violent.

An editorial in the Communist Party-controlled China Daily (via Reuters) warned that protesters have “no excuse” to continue the violent rallies after the “olive branch” from Beijing. And adding to the confusion surrounding the situation, the home of media tycoon Jimmy Lai was attacked early Thursday by two masked men who hurled firebombs before speeding off on a motorbike. Fortunately, nobody was hurt.

Jimmy Lai

 

Lai’s security guards responded by quickly putting out the fire, Bloomberg reported, before reporting the incident to police. Though it’s not clear who orchestrated and ordered the attack, it’s certainly possible that the incident was intended as a warning for Lai to keep quiet.

Lai’s publications, which include the Apple Daily newspapers, have drawn the ire of senior officials in Beijing over their overt stance in support of the protesters. Lai has been denounced as a traitor by the Chinese state media, and it’s certainly possible that the attack was intended as an act of intimidation.

It’s also possible that government-aligned thugs staged the attack as a “false flag”, and intends to blame protesters. Moreover, protesters may have staged the attack with the intention of blaming pro-government thugs.

Whatever happened, we imagine more details, and possible some arrests, will be forthcoming.

Two masked men threw firebombs at the gate of Lai’s home at around 1 a.m. local time Thursday before leaving, Cable TV news reported people at the scene as saying, adding Lai’s security guard put out the fire and called police.

Police put out a statement concerning a firebomb incident but didn’t mention whose residence was attacked. Police said they received a report from a security guard at the site, saying that the suspects had thrown what are believed to be petrol bombs before fleeing by motorcycle.

Lai, whose publications such as the Apple Daily newspapers have championed Hong Kong’s three-month-old democracy movement, has been labeled a traitor by Chinese state media over the months-long protests in the Asian financial center.

Apple Daily has been sending photographers to the front lines of the protests, even as violence has escalated over the past month, often broadcasting live online the skirmishes between protesters and police.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, Lam said during a press conference that Beijing “understands, respects and supports” her government’s decision to pull the extradition bill in an effort to help her city “move forward” from months of unrest. Lam dodged questions about why it took her so long to pull the bill, saying it’s “not exactly correct” to describe her decision as “a change of mind.”

“Throughout the whole process, the Central People’s Government took the position that they understood why we have to do it. They respect my view, and they support me all the way,” said Lam, according to Reuters.

Protesters have insisted that the government must meet all five of their demands. The four others are: retraction of the word “riot” to describe protests, release of all 1,100+ demonstrators who have been arrested, an independent inquiry into perceived police brutality and the right for Hong Kong people to choose their own leaders.

For what it’s worth, Lam announced other measures, including opening a “platform for dialogue” to address young peoples’ deep-rooted concerns about social mobility. But demonstrators insist that this is too little, too late.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Tom Luongo states what happened yesterday in Br. parliament perfectly

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

 

Brexit Has Devolved Into Random Acts Of Vandalism

Authored by Tom Luongo,

Some men just want to watch the world burn.

–The Dark Knight

Brexit has destroyed British politics. That was the goal of the EU’s non-negotiating strategy. And it has succeeded brilliantly.

Understand that the mindset of The Davos Crowd and their quislings across Europe is that the EU is inevitable. The EU is the future and nothing the people say or want will change that course.

 

And they will do everything they can to implement it.

While watching another two hours of pathetic virtue-signaling and strident desperation known as British Parliament I came to the only conclusion any rational person could come to.

The Remain coalition in the U.K. parliament have become vandals.

They would destroy everything about their government, traditions and what they know to be true outside the halls of Westminster to ensure the dreams of their paymasters are made real.

The fact that they would put forward a bill that hands absolute control over future negotiations with the EU to the European Commission is treason. Period.

That they would then hide from a General Election that they know would reverse their coup is an act of vandalism.

It is the height of arrogance for people who first stood on party manifestos to implement Brexit and then demanded a ‘People’s Vote’ to stop it, to simper and use their last remaining bits of power to deny those very people the opportunity to change their representation out of fear of Brexit.

This is where believer crosses the line to ideologue. That moment when you have to decide to subjugate millions of people because of your fears, your ideas, to your will because you know better.

And that they do so claiming to be champions of democracy shows just how flexible the English language is.

The people who crossed the whip and voted to stop Boris Johnson from implementing Brexit on October 31st, have been outed as the vandals they are. They are the people who sought originally to bind the U.K. into a Withdrawal Treaty worse than EU membership as punishment to the people who voted Brexit in 2016.

These are people like Dominic Grieve, Michael Gove, Ken Clarke and Phillip Hammond. Regardless of what they say publicly they never believed in Brexit, do not want it and do not want to see it implemented.

Now they will burn down parliament and what it was supposed to stand for if they can’t have their way.

Because nothing Boris Johnson has done as Prime Minister warrants their betraying him like this unless their allegiance is to the EU first and Britain second.

This is the very definition of a vandal. These people are full of envy and despite. They hate having lost the vote. They hate having to implement it. They hate the people for putting them in this position in the first place.

And their threats are nothing more than statements of their allegiance to the EU first and everyone else second.

Because if their allegiance was to the U.K. first they would back an election. They would trust the people to make the choice. But they won’t do that.

These Tory rebels know that Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage will storm into Westminster after an election and shore up Brexit on British terms without a second thought.

Labour knows they could fall so far out of power that they never recover.

They know the people hate them now. They know they are the minority. They know power is slipping from their grasp.

So the vandalism goes on. The ruthless power politics goes on. The people are ignored. But only for so long.

Because vandalism begets vandalism. Violence begets violence. And make no mistake, these acts in Parliament to frustrate the will of the people are violence. What comes next if these people succeed in stopping Brexit will not be televised.

This is what government is, at its core. It is force. Naked, unbridled force wielded like a cudgel without remorse on the people it’s supposed to serve.

George Orwell, a guy who knew a thing or two about Britain’s capacity for tyranny, famously said…

If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face … forever.

Future? Sorry George, that future is the present and the present is prologue.

*  *  *

Join my Patreon if you want help navigating the vandalism. Install Brave if you want to continue talking about it.

end

Now Boris Johnson;s brother resigns as Junior Minister and by doing so gives his brother the “royal shaft”. England is now in a total mess.

(zerohedge)

Jo Johnson Resigns As Junior Minister, Giving Brother ‘The Shaft’

One day after his brother suffered a string of humiliating parliamentary defeats at the hands of a ‘rebel alliance’ of (now-former) Tory MPs and the Labour-led opposition, Jo Johnson said he’s quitting politics, signing off with what the Financial Times described as a “thinly veiled” attack on his brother’s leadership.

Johnson, who served as minister for universities in his brother’s cabinet and the MP for Orpington in Kent since 2010 said on Thursday that he wouldn’t run again during the next election.

But in the tweet announcing his plans, Johnson said that in recent weeks he’d been “torn between family loyalty and the national interest”, implying that he feels a ‘no-deal’ Brexit…isn’t in the national interest.

“It’s been an honour to represent Orpington for 9 years & to serve as a minister under three PMs.”

Jo Johnson

@JoJohnsonUK

It’s been an honour to represent Orpington for 9 years & to serve as a minister under three PMs. In recent weeks I’ve been torn between family loyalty and the national interest – it’s an unresolvable tension & time for others to take on my roles as MP & Minister.

Of course, that Johnson opposed his brother’s hard-line strategy for the Brexit negotiations is hardly news. Jo Johnson previously resigned his post as the minister of state for transport back in November, citing his opposition to Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement. When May was PM, Johnson spoke openly about favoring a second Brexit referendum.

Happier times…

Now, the pro-remain Tory is giving his brother the same treatment.

During an interview from 2013, Boris Johnson was asked if he and Jo were “like” the Milibands, whose infamous rift captivated the British political establishment when – in the aftermath of his brother’s humiliating defeat at the hands of David Cameron – David Miliband did a round of interviews criticizing his little brother. Johnson said only “socialists” could “shaft” a family member like that.

Paul Mason

@paulmasonnews

“Only a socialist would shaft his own brother…” @BorisJohnson in 2013

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

We imagine the world will be keen to hear Johnson’s thoughts on his brother’s decision.

END
A terrific commentary from Mish Shedlock on the Brexit affair. He states that Boris Johnson’s moves were all planned and that he will get his no deal Brexit through because there will be no Queen’s consent.
a must read…
(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Another Weird Brexit Turn: Tories Vote To Support No-Deal Bill In House Of Lords

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

A big filibuster was in progress then suddenly it vanished. Tories voted for the Benn bill blocking No Deal.

Sorting Out the Truly Weird

Remainers are bragging tonight that the Filibuster is broken. Guess who broke it.

Via Eurointelligence

The Conservatives in the House of Lords abandoned their filibuster in the early hours of this morning. The government whip in the Lords actively encouraged members to get the Brexit-extension bill approved by Friday. The bill would then return to the Commons for a final reading on Monday morning.

This looks to us like one of three things have happened overnight.

Maybe the government simply caved in as the Tory Lords realised that their filibuster would be broken eventually. Having a Brexit-supporting Lord reading the telephone book to you in order to kill time is right up there with the poetry-citing Vogons in the Hitchhikers’ Guide to the Galaxy.

second possibility is that the government may have concluded that it has other, more effective, means to frustrate the bill than an unpopular Lords filibuster. It could, for example, withhold Royal Assent. The legal expert Robert Craig recalls yet another arcane procedural requirement. It is called Queen’s Consent which – if you can believe it – is different from Royal Assent. Queen’s Consent relates to legislation that shifts the royal prerogative – in this case the right of the Crown, and the government as its agent, to conduct international negotiations. Withholding the Queen’s Consent would constitute an effective government veto. We are not in a position to offer any legal or procedural interpretation of our own, let alone to judge whether this avenue will be pursued.

A third possibility is that the government and opposition parties may have struck a deal on the next election. Yesterday, Labour abstained on the government motion under the fixed-terms parliaments act to hold early elections. There is a big debate within the Labour Party, with Keir Starmer and other pro-Remain MPs wanting to prevent Johnson from being able to trigger a no-deal Brexit even if he were to win elections.

We still believe that elections are more likely than not, simply because we don’t believe that Labour can hold its position for very long. Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of the Scottish National Party, also come out in favour of early elections and criticised Labour for trying to block it. The longer this stalemate goes on, the more it will reverberate against the party. As an opposition leader you don’t want to go into an election with the prime minister calling you a big girl’s blouse, as happened yesterday, or a chlorinated chicken.

Queen’s Consent

I vote for the Eurointelligence second possibility, Queen’s Consent.

Queen’s Consent is different from Royal Assent.

I never heard of QC. I suspect 99.9% have not heard of it either.

But my overriding premise has always been that the Johnson team knows what it is doing.

I have amusing comments from UK expats telling me things like a filibuster is impossible, now bragging that the filibuster is broken, no doubt without even know it was the Johnson Tories who broke it.

Queen’s Consent Legal Opinion

Let’s investigate a Legal Opinion on Queen’s Consent.

Emphasis is original, not mine.

Queen’s Consent is a procedural requirement for any Bill passing through the Commons and Lords where the terms of the Bill would ‘affect’ the exercise of any royal prerogative if it was passed. The effect on the prerogative must be more than de minimis.

Queen’s Consent is normally a formality, because the government usually proposes (or more accurately for Private Members Bills, acquiesces to) all Bills that are successfully voted through both Houses. The current scenario could see a situation where a Bill passes in the teeth of trenchant opposition from the government.

Prerogative powers are legacy powers of the Crown that are now mainly exercised by the government. Conducting foreign affairs, and in particular the power to agree treaties and operate treaty powers, is an important part of the prerogative and is the relevant power for this post. Under that power, the UK government has agreed new treaties, and particular laws, at EU level over the last 46 years (and indeed continues to do so).

The story behind the passage of Cooper-Letwin is more complex than many realise. The drafting of the original version was masterly. Cooper-Letwin mandated the then Prime Minister (PM) to seek an extension to the Article 50 process. The word ‘seek’ is crucial. The reason it is so crucial is that it allowed the argument to be made that Queen’s Consent was not necessary for the Bill. This was because to ‘seek’ an extension does not actually have any effect in terms of changing the date of exit at EU level. Seeking an extension arguably does not ‘affect’ prerogative exercise as a matter of law.

The sheer cleverness of the drafting of Cooper-Letwin rests on the fact that it left entirely open what would happen after the extension was ‘sought’. The negotiations and agreement of a new exit date were without doubt exercises of prerogative power and any Bill that sought to regulate or supplant those aspects of securing an extension would certainly have required Queen’s Consent during the passage of the Bill.

The issue of Queen’s Consent was taken very seriously during the passage of the Cooper-Letwin Bill and was so controversial it resulted in a [formal ruling](https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2019-04-03/debates/0F559E56-033F-…(Withdrawal%29(No5%29Bill#contribution-DC5CD990-C745-4B29-825C-B2404A764AF4) by the Speaker. That ruling made clear that the original draft of the Bill did not require Queen’s Consent.

The Benn-Burt bill

If Benn-Burt had precisely followed the format of Cooper-Letwin and only mandated that the government seek an extension, then it would have placed no obligation on the PM to agree or accept any extension. That would remain part of the prerogative power to be exercised as the PM sees fit in his negotiations with the EU27.

However, Benn-Burt goes much further than Cooper-Letwin. It mandates that the PM must not only seek but also agree to an extension, either 31 January 2020 or another date if the Commons approves a date suggested by the EU27. Mandating that the PM agrees to an extension manifestly affects the prerogative. It is difficult to see how requesting Queen’s Consent can be avoided for this Bill. If so, it follows that the government must agree to the Bill being passed during Third Reading.

What is most fascinating about this dilemma is that the Cooper-Letwin prototype gave such clear and unequivocal evidence of where the bright line on Queen’s Consent is actually drawn by the legal experts who understand, and indeed determine, these issues within the Commons. Can there be any doubt that if a stronger wording could have been secured without triggering Queen’s Consent then such a wording would have been used last time?

Conclusion

The proponents of a new Bill to prevent No Deal are caught on the horns of a dilemma. If they had drafted a Bill that only mandated the PM to seek an extension, the PM would be left free to refuse to agreeor accept any extension in negotiations with the EU27.

But the actual Bill tries to impose a requirement that the PM either agrees to 31 January 2020 or agrees any new exit date suggested by the EU27 (as long as a motion approving the alternative date in the House of Commons is passed). House of Commons procedural rules mean that the government is required formally to approve the Bill by affirming ‘Queen’s Consent’ to the Bill at the Third Reading stage. This is because the power to agree or accept an extension is normally exercised using a prerogative power. If passed, this statute would have the legal effect, by whatever means, of forcing the PM to agree an extension to the Article 50 process would manifestly ‘affect’ the prerogative for the purposes of the relevant test as to whether Queen’s Consent is required.

Too Clever

The Benn Bill requires Johnson’s approval. What do you think the odds of that are?

That’s the long and short of it.

It’s unclear if Benn knew this or not. It’s possible he did and hoped Johnson would not catch it. More likely, the drafters of the Benn bill did not know.

Either way, the point is moot.

There is no way to force Johnson to approve this. And he won’t, even if Bercow demands.

Benn can take it to the courts, but the law is clear.

Benn is Dead

I was mocked this evening “So, spin this all you want. You were wrong about all the procedures in parliament. Have YOU gone back to study parliamentary rules and UK law?”

Mind you, this is from the person who told me a filibuster in the House of Lords was not even possible.

I never presume I know everything. Clearly, I don’t.

However, I have high confidence the Johnson team picked the dates very carefully and for a reason, even if I did not understand the reason.

Benn is dead unless it’s part of a deal as per Eurointelligence option three.

Respectable Opinions

I highly respect the opinions of Eurointelligence.

Q: Why?

A: Because the outfit is staunchly pro-remain.

It’s easy to find opinions supporting your view. It’s damn hard to find someone saying what you want to hear when they disagree with the outcome.

Impressions are Deceptive

Here’s another intelligent view point via Eurointelligence, but referencing a paywalled article Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings Believe Their Plan Can Still Work.

Emphasis Mine.

While no one foresaw the scale of the rebellion a showdown with parliament was long planned

Johnson and his chief strategist, Dominic Cummings, deliberately planned and engineered last night’s defeat, goading the Commons into opposing him; he was lying to his party, parliament and the country when he claimed that he was being pushed into calling an election.

An early election that he could deny seeking is exactly what he has been scheming to achieve ever since he took power.

Bingo!

Eurointelligence comments “In particular, Number 10 remains confident that they will get early elections. On balance, we agree with that assessment.”

Ignore the Nonsense

Yesterday I commented Ignore the Nonsense Reporting: Boris Johnson was Not Defeated, He Won Big Time.

Just the Facts Ma’am

  1. Johnson goaded 21 problematic Rebel Tories into voting against him. Those Tories have been removed from the party and will lose their seats in the next election. Good riddance.
  2. Because of foolish Remainer actions, Johnson will no longer have to go through the charades of working out a deal with the EU.
  3. Johnson’s hands are effectively bound and he welcomes that! He will not have to work out a deal. Instead he can lay the blame on the EU and on the Remainers for removing the option to negotiate with the EU.
  4. By removing the 21 rebels, Johnson won the support of Nigel Farage thereby allowing a coalition between the Brexit Party and the Tories minus the rebel problem makes.
  5. The Remainers are hopelessly split. Corbyn wants a referendum or the right to work out a customs deal with the EU. The Liberal Democrats want to remain. Many Labour party members want Brexit.

Delusional Remainers

My 5 comments from yesterday are backed up by events and independent analysis today.

Meanwhile, delusional Remainers keep believing they have the upper hand.

In reality, the Remainers do precisely what Johnson says: strip him of any chance of working out a deal.

It’s debatable if Johnson really wants a deal. I don’t pretend to know. I do know he cannot live with the backstop.

The deal question is moot even though the result sure isn’t.

Johnson will form an alliance with the Brexit party if for no other reason than Remainers forced him into that hard stance.

Look for a big Johnson win in the next election whether or not he gives into the Benn bill to get it.

end
Gatestone’s Kern describes perfectly the situation inside Italy right now with respect to Salvini. Basically is a down but not out.
a good read..
.
(Gatestone/Kern)

Italy: Salvini Down But Not Out

Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

  • The new governing alliance, if realized, may be short lived. In an interview with the Italian daily La Stampa, former Interior Minister Roberto Maroni of the Lega Nord party said that the new government, if it comes to fruition, will be “intrinsically weak” because it would exist, “not for a shared political project but only to avoid elections.” He added that there was a possibility that the new government could last for the entire legislature “in order to avoid delivering the country to Salvini.”
  • “Do you think I am afraid of a few months in opposition?” Salvini asked in a Facebook video. “You have not got rid of me with your political games. You do not know me, I do not give in.” He has called for a protest against the new government in Rome on October 19. Polls show that 67% of Italians are in favor of early elections.
  • We Hungarians will never forget that you [Salvini] were the first Western European leader to make an effort to prevent illegal migrants from flooding Europe via the Mediterranean Sea. Irrespective of future political developments in Italy and of the fact that we belong to different European party groups, we consider you as a brother in arms in the fight to preserve Europe’s Christian heritage and stop migration.” — Hungarian President Viktor Orbán.

Matteo Salvini, Italy’s deputy premier and interior minister since 2018, has been shut out of the Italian government after his gambit to force snap elections to become prime minister backfired.

As the de facto leader of Europe’s anti-mass-migration movement, Salvini’s departure from government may set back efforts to slow illegal immigration to the continent. Many analysts, however, believe that Salvini, who continues to lead his rivals in opinion polls, will be back in government soon and in an even stronger position than before.

On August 8, after months of public feuding, Salvini declared the governing coalition between his League party and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) unworkable. He accused M5S of blocking the League’s main policies and said that the only way forward was to hold fresh elections.

The League and M5S, ahead of an inconclusive election in March 2018, had been political adversaries. Three months later, however, they formed an unlikely alliance. Their June 2018 coalition agreement, outlined in a 39-page action plan, promised to crack down on illegal immigration and to deport up to 500,000 undocumented migrants.

Since then, Salvini has accused M5S of failing to implement parts of the coalition agreement. Tensions came to a head on August 7, when, during a session in Parliament, M5S voted against a project supported by Salvini for a high-speed train link with France. “It is useless to go ahead with ‘no’s’ and quarrels,” Salvini wrote on his Facebook page. “Italians need certainty and a government that works, not a Mr. ‘No.'” Salvini called for new elections to be held on October 13.

In an effort to avoid early elections, which polls show that Salvini would win, M5S reached out to the rival center-left Democratic Party (PD), cutting Salvini’s League party out of power. M5S and PD clinched a preliminary coalition agreement on August 28, and a day later Italian President Sergio Mattarella asked Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, an independent, to form a new coalition government. Although the League is Italy’s most popular party, M5S and PD are the two largest forces in parliament.

Although the anti-establishment, anti-EU M5S and the pro-establishment, pro-EU PD have long been political enemies, M5S appears to have set aside many of its core principles to meet PD’s demands. For now, M5S has insisted on maintaining a hardline anti-illegal immigration law passed with the League in November 2018. The law, championed by Salvini, saw public support for the League skyrocket from 17% in the March 2018 election to 38% in August 2019.

The new government — which aims to govern until the next general election, due to be held no later than May 2023 — will have to be approved in a vote of confidence by both houses of Parliament.

The new governing alliance, if realized, may be short lived. In an interview with the Italian daily La Stampa, former Interior Minister Roberto Maroni of the Lega Nord party said that the new government, if it comes to fruition, will be “intrinsically weak” because it would exist, “not for a shared political project but only to avoid elections.” He added that there was a possibility that the new government could last for the entire legislature “in order to avoid delivering the country to Salvini.”

Several Italian newspapers reported on efforts by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other European officials to prevent early elections in Italy — solely to stop Salvini from becoming prime minister. Merkel reportedly ordered leaders of the PD to reach a coalition agreement with M5S. “Make the agreement and stop Salvini,” she reportedly said.

A leaked document showed that outgoing EU Budget Commissioner Günther Oettinger had offered to relax EU rules on public debt in exchange for “a pro-European government that does not work against Europe.”

Writing for the Italian daily Il Giornale, political correspondent Andrea Indini noted:

“Berlin’s interference with the decisions of the Democratic Party are not surprising at all. As we have reported in recent days, the first meeting between M5S and PD dates back to July 16, when Ursula von der Leyen was elected president of the European Commission, thanks in part to support from M5S and PD. Von der Leyen is not just any person, she is Merkel’s clone. Her election is part of a strategy executed alongside French President Emmanuel Macron to split the nationalist bloc in Europe. It is certainly not a coincidence that, moments after Salvini pulled the plug on his government, [former Italian prime minister and former European Commission president] Romano Prodi, faster than a slingshot, called for Italy to be governed by an ‘Ursula Coalition’ that is formed by the same political forces [M5S and PD] that helped to elect von der Leyen.

“That there are international interests behind the formation of the new coalition government is now clear to most. ‘The Democratic Party is at the service of foreign countries,’ Salvini said last night during a rally in Pinzolo. ‘They think we are all sheep and slaves, ready to wait for what they say in Brussels and Paris, but the League defends the Italians, because we are free men.’ At this point Salvini has no choice but to play the next match against the opposition with the weapons he has available. His men have already made it known that they will pass nothing in the Parliament that comes from M5S-PD, but above all from those who sponsor them: Merkel, Macron and Ursula von der Leyen.”

Salvini’s political rivals relished his departure from government. Former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, in a Facebook post, proclaimed: “Today, Salvini has left the political stage. Institutions 1 — Populism 0.”

Salvini, however, has vowed to fight:

“While PD and others are fighting over government positions, we are preparing for the Italy that is to come from among the people. They will not be able to run away from the elections for long, let’s get ready to win!”

“Do you think I am afraid of a few months in opposition?” Salvini asked in a Facebook video. “You have not got rid of me with your political games. You do not know me, I do not give in.” He has called for a protest against the new government in Rome on October 19. Polls show that 67% of Italians are in favor of early elections.

International commentators agree that Salvini remains a political force to be reckoned with. International Business Editor of The Daily Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, noted that Salvini is down but not out:

“Be careful what you wish for in Italian politics. The exile of the volcanic Matteo Salvini is a Faustian Bargain for the EU establishment and the defenders of the euro project.

“There must be a high chance that the Lega strongman — and de facto leader of the Continent’s anti-EU rebellion — will sweep back into power with an overwhelming majority next year or soon after.

“He may then be strong enough to push revolutionary changes through the Italian constitutional system that would be impossible sooner: A New Deal spending blitz backed by a politically-controlled Bank of Italy and a parallel “minibot” currency that neutralizes the enforcement tools of the European Central Bank.

“His departure this week means that others will be left to grapple with Italy’s intractable stagnation. It is they who will have to push through €23bn of austerity cuts to comply with the EU’s stability pact and the fiscal compact, the paraphernalia of arcane budget rules concocted by lawyers and unworkable in a serious downturn. Mr. Salvini’s hands will be clean. ‘It is a win-win situation for us,’ said Claudio Borghi, the Lega’s economics chief.”

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán thanked Salvini for his efforts “benefitting Italy and the whole of Europe including Hungary.” In a letter published by the Hungarian news agency MTI, Orbán wrote:

“We Hungarians will never forget that you were the first Western European leader to make an effort to prevent illegal migrants from flooding Europe via the Mediterranean Sea. Irrespective of future political developments in Italy and of the fact that we belong to different European party groups, we consider you as a brother in arms in the fight to preserve Europe’s Christian heritage and stop migration.”

On August 30, meanwhile, 62 Pakistani migrants landed on an island off Gallipoli in southern Italy. On September 1, Salvini, who remains acting interior minister, banned the Alan Kurdi, a ship operated by the German charity Sea-Eye, with 13 migrants aboard, from entering Italian waters. Another ship, the Mare Jonio, is anchored a kilometer from the Italy’s southernmost island of Lampedusa with 34 migrants who were rescued on August 28 off the coast of Libya.

Salvini has warned that the new coalition would end his ban on migrant boats arriving from Africa: “If the PD wants to reopen the doors and allow the business of illegal immigration to start up again, it should tell that to Italians.”

end
EU
Deutsche bank shares collapse on threats that the ECB will lower rates further.  It is already in negative territory and a further drop will just about knock all the major banks into oblivion. Please recall the two papers on negative rates:  the first by Alasdair Macleod and the second by Jim Bianco
(ZEROHEDGE)

EU Bank Bosses Warn Of “Grave Consequences” If ECB Keeps Cutting Rates

The ECB’s imposition of negative interest rates have created an “absurd situation” in which banks don’t want to hold deposits, rages UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti, arguing that this policy is hurting social systems and savings rates.

Ermotti is not alone. As European bank bosses cast their eyes at their share prices, they are fighting back, some have said – biting the hand that feeds, in their attack on ECB policies, warning of severe consequences to asset prices and the broader economy.

Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg reports, Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing warned that more monetary easing by the ECB, as widely expected next week, will have “grave side effects” for a region that has already lived with negative interest rates for half a decade.

“In the long run, negative rates ruin the financial system,” Sewing said at the event, organized by the Handelsblatt newspaper.

Another cut “may make refinancing cheaper for states, but has grave side effects.”

While incoming ECB head Christine Lagarde has claimed that the benefits of deeply negative rates outweigh the costs (stating just this week that “a highly accommodative policy is warranted for a prolonged period of time;” few economists believe another cut at this level would actually help the economy. According to Sewing, all it would achieve is to further divide society by lifting asset prices while punishing Europe’s savers who are already paying 160 billion euros ($176 billion) a year because of negative interest rates.

“What’s really worrisome: central banks have hardly any tools left to effectively mitigate a real economic crisis,” Sewing said.

“They have already cranked open the money tap – most of all the European Central Bank.”

Who can blame Sewing, as the EU yield curve has collapsed, so has his share price…

Source: Bloomberg

“Banks’ interest margins are under pressure in this environment and that’s not going to change,” Commerzbank CEO Martin Zielke said at the same conference.

I don’t think it is a particularly sustainable or responsible policy. But we have to recognize the facts and the facts are that winning clients in this environment helps work against that pressure.

Bloomberg also notes that Yngve Slyngstad, the chief executive officer of Norges Bank Investment Management, Norway’s $1 trillion wealth fund, has separately said that negative rates are the main worry at the world’s largest wealth fund right now.

So, with Draghi facing push back from an increasingly hawkish group of ECB members, the question is, will he just push off the decision? Starting October 31, how the Eurozone will be destroyed – whether with hyperinflation fire and deflationary ice – will no longer be Draghi’s decision, but instead the final destruction of the Eurozone will be delegated to arguably the most clueless person (see Argentina) in the room.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey/EU

Turkey wants a land grab i.e. northern Syria.  He wants to put those million or so so refugees there. Only one problem, it is not the uSA to dole out the land.  Erdogan claims he has spent 35 billion dollars on those refugees.  He now wants out..he will send them off to Greece unless they cover his cost..

(zerohedge)

Erdogan: We’ll Flood Europe With Syrian Refugees Unless ‘Safe Zone’ Established

“We will be forced to open the gates. We cannot be forced to handle the burden alone,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned on Thursday while demanding that European countries give political support to his controversial ‘safe zone’ plan in northern Syria.

Ankara is currently in tense negotiations with the United States over Erdogan’s plan to militarily carve out a large swathe of territory along the Turkish-Syrian border which would serve as a buffer zoneof sorts where US-backed Kurdish militias could not operate.

Erdogan said one million refugees could settle in the new buffer territory, thus alleviating the crisis on Turkish soil, and ultimately for Europe as well.

 

Syrian refugees in a Turkish camp. Image source: AP 

Turkey sees the YPG core of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as a terrorist extension of the outlawed PKK. Turkey has of late vowed to carve out the proposed ‘safe’ territory on a unilateral basis if it can’t make progress with Washington.

Also during the speech Turkey’s president complained his nation “did not receive the support needed from the world” to help it cope with the refugee crisis through the eight-year long war.

Erdogan issued a ‘with us or against us’ ultimatum to the world on Thursday:

You either support us to have a safe zone in Syria, or we will have to open the gates. Either you support us or no one should feel sorry. We would like to host 1 million refugees in the safe zone,” he said.

It goes without saying that the territory in question is not his to control or dole out, and Damascus has slammed what it sees as a big Turkish land-grab.

Turkey has pressed hard for the proposed safe zone east of the Euphrates for the past year (‘safe zone’ envisioned in blue in map below):

It’s also the case that many analysts see Turkey as a prime external party to the conflict that’s done more than any other to exacerbate and prolong the war, including fueling the rise of ISIS.

Turkey’s president previously claimed the country has spent a total of $35 billion on hosting some 4 million Syrian refugees, but that the European Union hasn’t upheld previously agreed to commitments under a refugee settlement plan.

 

Erdogan speaks to his ruling party officials Thursday in Ankara, Turkey, via the AP.

It’s not the first time Ankara has threatened to allow Syrian refugees and migrants to leave for EU countries and it likely won’t be the last, but it’ll be interesting to see if Erdogan’s blackmail will witness any positive movement out of Europe.

end

Iran/USA

USA offer millions of dollars to the captain of our famous Iranian oil tanker if he hands the vessel over to American hands

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

Seems that all car manufacturers are caught in a crossfire with respect to trump’s trade war with China

see for yourself..

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

 

Car Manufacturers Caught In Crossfire Of Trump’s Trade War

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The global repercussions of Trump’s trade wars have a new casualty: US and European car manufacturers.

The telegraph reports European Carmakers are Caught in the Crossfire of Trump’s Trade War.

But it’s not just European manufacturers. The US will take a huge hit as well.

China has been the most frequent target of Trump’s ire. At the start of the month he fired another Twitter salvo in the trade war between Washington and Beijing.

From September 1, $300bn (£247bn) of imports from China would be hit with a surprise “small additional 10pc tariff,” Trump threatened. “This does not include the $250bn already tariffed at 25pc,” he added. The news caused the S&P index to fall almost 2pc in just a few minutes.

A few weeks later Beijing responded. Retaliatory tariffs of 10pc on US imports would similarly begin at the start of this month. But it also warned that in December the import duty on US-built cars would jump from the current 15pc to 40pc – reimposing a threatened 25pc hike that had been put on hold as tensions cooled last year. The warning put the global car industry squarely in the firing line.

“The car industry is complex with supply chains crossing borders and components moving between countries many times,” Professor David Bailey, a car expert at Birmingham University, says. “That’s before you take into account foreign-owned plants producing cars for export around the world*. Tariffs are a very blunt instrument and using them has unintended consequences*.”

US Impact

  1. The BMW plant in Spartanburg, South Carolina, opened in 1994 and since then the 11,000 people whose jobs it offers or supports have produced 4m cars.
  2. The Mercedes site in Tuscaloosa County, Alabama, has 3,800 direct employees and supports 10,000 more jobs, and the plant has churned out 3.2m vehicles since opening in 1997.
  3. “BMW and Daimler are two of the largest exporters of vehicles from the US to China,” says Ellinghorst. “A 25pc tariff would cause $1.7bn of extra costs for the two of them, split fairly evenly.”
  4. Volvo may be another victim. The company which is owned by China’s Geely opened its first US plant, in Ridgeville, South Carolina last year. Ian Henry of Auto Analysis added: “There’s also been stories of Volvo supplying some models made in China from its European factories to the US to avoid tariffs, with the shortfall in Europe made up with cars built in China being transported by rail.”
  5. Evercore says that of the US manufacturers, Ford and Fiat Chrysler, which respectively export 40,000 and 10,000 American-built cars to China annually, face an extra $320m and $80m in costs.
  6. Tesla, which is expected to sell about 45,000 vehicles in China in the coming year, faces a $620m bill. However, Elon Musk’s electric car company is building a plant in Shanghai which will allow it to dodge tariffs when it opens next year.

Truly Idiotic

BMW, Volvo, Mercedes, and Daimler all produce cars in the US for export to China. That slowdown is in addition to the direct hit on GM and Ford.

Elon Musk will avoid tariff retaliations by building cars in China.

If you think this is truly idiotic, you are not the only one.

The article concludes “For all Trump’s rhetoric about making America great again and protecting the country’s industrial base, his current tactics risk causing huge damage.”

Major Supply Chain Disruptions

Two days ago I commented Major Supply Chain Disruptions Coming: Thank Trump

I stand corrected.

Major supply chain disruptions are already here.

ISM and PMI Reports

The ISM and PMI reports were miserable, not just in the US, but globally.

I commented US Manufacturing Recession Begins: ISM Contracts First Time in 3 Years.

Here are a couple of items that caught my attention.

  1. Deteriorating demand conditions, especially across the automotive sector, were linked to subdued client demand.
  2. External demand also weighed on new business growth, as new export orders fell at the quickest pace since August 2009, linked by many firms to trade wars and tariffs.

Deteriorating Automotive Sector

Last Friday, I noted Personal Income Up 0.1%, Spending Up 0.6%, sarcastically commenting “What’s the Problem?”

Here is the contradictory line from the BEA report that caught my eye in advance of the ISM and PMI reports.

“Within goods, recreational goods and vehicles was the leading contributor to the increase.”

I commented “Auto and SUV sales have not been strong. I smell revisions.”

Gross Distortions

The economic reports appear to be grossly distorted, way more than usual.

Little of this ties together.

On July 7, I commented Dealers are Bumper-to-Bumper With SUVs: More Coming as Sales Decline

On August 5, CNBC reported Car dealers struggle to sell 2018 new-car inventory to make room for 2020 cars.

As dealerships look to sell off cars from the 2019 model year to bring in 2020′s shiny new models, they’re running into a problem. They still have cars from 2018 clogging up their lots.

Even if vehicles are a “leading contributor” to increased consumer spending as the BEA says it won’t last.

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1063 UP .0028 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT THE HAPLESS BRITS

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.70 UP 0.360 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2338   UP   0.0093  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3194 DOWN .0031 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 28 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1063 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 28.45 POINTS OR 0.96%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 7.70 POINTS OR 0.03%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,97%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 7.70 POINTS OR 0.03%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 28.45 POINTS OR 0.96%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.97% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 436.80  POINTS OR 2.12%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1542.40

silver:$19.24-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.51% !!! UP 5 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.01 UP 5  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 98.17 DOWN 27 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.25% UP 9 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.26%  UP 2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.24%//UP 13 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:95 UP 15 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 71 points higher than Spain

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.59% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.64% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1038  UP     .0003 or 3 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.96 DOWN .616 OR YEN DOWN 62  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2324 UP .0078 POUND UP 78  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 18 basis points to 1.3244

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.1489    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.1408  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.6951 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.26%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 10 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.57 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.06 UP 9 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.38 DOWN 7  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 16.54  0.41%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 101.74 POINTS OR .85%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 61.30 POINTS 1.11%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 136.10 POINTS or 1.54%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 219.27 POINTS OR 1.00%

 

 

59

WTI Oil price; 57.36 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 61.77 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    66.19  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.03 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 3 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.24 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  56.19//

 

 

BRENT :  60.83

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.56 up 10…basis pts

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.06..up 9 basis pts.

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1036 ( UP 1   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.02 up .684 (YEN down 68 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.40 DOWN 5 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2328 UP 82  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.6911

 

 

the Russian rouble 66.24   down 0.07 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( down 7 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3231 UP 5 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.1489  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.1367 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.59%

 

The Dow closed UP 372,68 POINTS OR 1.41%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 139.95 POINTS OR 1.75%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.53 CLOSED DOWN .44

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.112%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks & Bond Yields Surge On “Resumption Of Trade-Talks”, Silver Slammed

Trade-Talks are on again… on like Donkey Kong if markets are to be believed.

So to explain what happened today, the following chart should help (trade accordingly):

h/t @StockCats

Which brings to mind…

Chinese stocks opened dramatically higher but faded into the close of the afternoon session…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks soared also, led by Germany (trade hopes) on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

German 30Y Yields broke back above 0.00% for the first time in over a month…

Source: Bloomberg

 

US equity markets were all higher on the day, smashing above Trump tariff tantrum levels…

 

 

And as futures show, the bulk of the gains overnight…

 

 

Notably, today’s buying extravaganza lifted the S&P back to unchanged since The Fed cut rates in July…

 

All the majors crossed above key technical levels today (Russell 2000 tagged its 200DMA but was unable to hold above it)

 

 

Cyclicals dominated as the odds of a China trade deal surged…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Shorts were dramatically squeezed yet again…

 

Source: Bloomberg

And then there was Slack which crashed over 10% after cutting guidance but was panic-bid back to unchanged after the open…

 

Bonds don’t seem to be buying it though…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields surged today with the long-end modestly outperforming (30Y +8bps, 2Y +11bps)…

NOTE – between a record high $74 billion calendar (rate-locks), Fed POMO bid disappearing due to “technical difficulties”, trade-deal hopes, and the better-than-expected ISM services data (despite everything else being weaker)

Source: Bloomberg

Today was among the biggest absolute spikes in 10Y (above 1.50%) and 30Y (above 2.00%) Yields since the election in 2016…

 

NOTE – after the initial spike, yields rallied back lower.

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve steepened on the day but 3m10Y remains deeply inverted…

 

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the day lower, but roundtripped off overnight lows…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan is higher overnight but well off the highs, notably divergent from US stocks…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were mixed with Altcoins fading but Bitcoin stable…

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities were mixed with copper best, crude pumped-n-dumped, and PMs weak after the PMI data…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was hit on very heavy volume…

 

But silver was worse…

 

Sending Gold/Silver higher for a change…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Oil pumped and dumped today after inventory data spiked it up to 5-week highs briefly…

 

Finally, we should note that while the market has pushed for more and more easing in recent weeks, since The Fed first cut, the macro-economic data has beaten (admittedly low) expectations dramatically…

Source: Bloomberg

end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

Pure nonsense!/futures soar on news of a supposed resumption of trade talks in October

(zerohedge)

Futures Soar, Yields Jump After China, US Agree To Resume Trade Talks In October

S&P futures surged and 10Y yields jumped after China’s CCTV reported that its top trade negotiators will travel to Washington in early October for talks with U.S. counterparts, to resume trade war negotiations. The decision came after an early Thursday phone call Beijing time between Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He and the USTR Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, according to a statement from China’s commerce ministry.

Other Chinese officials, including Commerce Minister Zhong Shan, central bank governor Yi Gang and Ning Jizhe, the deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission, also joined the phone call, CCTV reported.

In the lead up to the talks, lower-level officials will have “serious” discussions this month to prepare for the talks, which incidentally were expected to begin in September.

However, for headline-scanning algos, October is even more bullish than September as equity futures went vertical on the news, spiked the Emini by 26 points to 2,965, just 2% away from all time highs, and the Dow was some 250 point higher.

Treasury yields spiked as well, with the 30Y US Treasury rising back over 2.00%

Meanwhile, the offshore Chinese yuan jumped as low as 7.12, its highest level since last week’s sharp drop on the escalation in tariffs…

… while gold slumped even though the dollar barely budged on the news.

So is this just more posturing by both sides, when both Washington and Beijing know very well that a real deal is impossible? The answer is most likely yes, although the CCTV report said both sides agreed to make concrete efforts to create positive conditions to continue dialogue.

That said, prepare for more deja vu disappointment: after their previous phone call, Donald Trump said the two sides would meet in September. Instead, since then, both countries have increased tariffs on imports of each other’s products, and China has said it would not make concessions because of US pressure.

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/late morning

The ISM is a phony report and it showed a rebound while the identical surey Markit showed a huge downgrade.  go figure!

Gold Hammered As Stocks & Bond Yields Surge On ISM Survey Rebound

Despite every other economic survey signal pointing to further weakness as manufacturing contraction spreads to the rest of the economy, stocks and bond yields are spiking after ISM’s survey rebounded in August (despite 60% of the components weaker).

Stocks spiked (good news is good news?)

Treasury yields spiked. 30Y back above 2.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

And across the pond, 30Y German yields topped 0.00% for the first time in a month…

Source: Bloomberg

And gold was monkeyhammered lower on massive volume…

Silver is getting hit even harder…

So, will The Fed cut? Stocks are within 1% of record highs, employment looks awesome, and Services are rebounding!?

ii)Market data/USA

The phony ADP report which is always bullish surges in August showing a gain of 195,000 workers

(ADP/Zerohedge)

ADP Employment Surges In August

ADP reports that jobs growth rebounded for the second month in a row in August, up 195k (crushing expectations of a 148k rise and above the highest analyst estimate).

Source: Bloomberg

“In August we saw a rebound in private-sector employment,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

“This is the first time in the last 12 months that we have seen balanced job growth across small, medium and large-sized companies.”

Service-proving jobs dominated once again, adding 184k, with goods-producing jobs rising 11k in August.

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics,  said, “Businesses are holding firm on their payrolls despite the slowing economy. Hiring has moderated, but layoffs remain low. As long as this continues recession will remain at bay.”

This is a great jobs report, especially given BLS’ revisions, but is it too good to allow Powell to cut next week?

END
Again the ISM service report deviates from the Markit service..such crooks.
(zerohedge)

August US Service Sector Growth Slumps In “Toughest Month Since Financial Crisis”

On the heels of dismal manufacturing survey data, all hopeful eyes were on the Services surveys to confirm no contagion into the larger part of the economy.

The flash prints for ISM and PMI Services were weak but the final print for Markit Non-manufacturing PMI fell further (to 50.7) – the weakest since March 2016. On the price front, input costs and output charges fell in August, with cost burdens decreasing for the first time since data collection began in October 2009.

BUT…

Because it wouldn’t be ‘Murica if the data wasn’t completely divergent, ISM reports a better than expected 56.4 for non-manufacturing, rising notably from the 53.7 flash print and well above July’s levels

Spot The Odd One Out

Source: Bloomberg

So, you decide which is more likely – contagion to the services sector from a collapsing manufacturing sector OR, a huge rebound?

Commenting on the PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“US businesses reported one of the toughest months since the global financial crisis in August, with growth of output, order books and hiring all slowing amid steep falls in both export and business confidence.

Only on two occasions since the global financial crisis have the US PMI surveys recorded a weaker monthly expansion, and these were months in which business was hit by the government shutdown and bad weather in 2013 and 2016 respectively. This time, trade wars and falling exports appear to be the main drivers of weakness, exacerbating fears of a broader economic slowdown both at home and globally.

A major factor behind the deterioration was the spreading of the manufacturing downturn to the service sector, via weakened household and business confidence. Jobs growth is also increasingly being affected by worries regarding the outlook. Overall jobs growth in August was the weakest since early-2012, commensurate with non-farm payrolls rising at a monthly rate of under 100,000.

Finally, Williamson notes that “at current levels, the August PMIs are indicating annualized GDP growth of 1.0%, putting the economy on course for growth of just below 1.5% in the third quarter.

Such weak readings hint at downside risks to current third quarter growth projections, which generally point to an expansion of just over 2%.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

The Dems will not like this:  Trump diverts $3.6 billion from the military budget to fund the border wall

(zerohedge)

Trump Admin Diverts $3.6 Billion From Military To Fund Border Wall

The Trump administration has begun the process of diverting $3.6 billion from military construction projects to fund the Mexico border wall budget.

The move will effectively defund 127 Pentagon projects across the country in order to fund 11 projects covering 175 miles of new or reconstructed barriers along the US-Mexico border. According to Pentagon officials, this will reduce the need for American troops to reinforce border security.

“This funding will all go to adding significantly new capabilities to [the Department of Homeland Security’s] ability to prevent illegal entry,” said Pentagon chief spokesman, Jonathan Rath Hoffman, who added “In areas where we go from, say, a vehicle barrier to a 30-foot wall, we will have a significantly new set of capabilities that didn’t exist previously.”

 

On Tuesday, Defense Secretary Mark Esper began the process of notifying US lawmakers whose districts are affected by the changes – and Senate Minority Chuck Schumer is already complaining.

“This decision will harm already planned, important projects intended to support our service members at military installations in New York, across the United States, and around the world,” said Schumer, adding “It is a slap in the face to the members of the Armed Forces who serve our country that President Trump is willing to cannibalize already allocated military funding to boost his own ego and for a wall he promised Mexico would pay to build.”

The New York Democratic Senator added that Trump is trying to “usurp Congress’s exclusive power of the purse and loot vital funds from our military,” and vowed that Congress will strongly oppose new funding for wall construction.

Schumer has apparently changed his views on illegal immigration since Trump took office.

The diversion in Pentagon funds comes almost seven months after President Trump declared a national emergency to use approximately $8 billion to build his long-promised border wall. Of that, $3.6 billion was slated to come from military construction funds – which will be shifted from the Pentagon’s 2019 fiscal year budget approved earlier this year.

No word on whether Trump will take up Rand Paul’s idea for an AR-10-toting T-rex cat with laser eyes.

Senator Rand Paul

@RandPaul

I did something to help the President out though. I found him a wall I think will work on the border.

View image on Twitter
end
Trump is angry at Barra for moving mega jobs over to China.  Let us see what he will say today on this matter
(zerohedge)

GM’s Mary Barra To Meet Trump In Oval Office Thursday

Days after slamming the Detroit automaker for moving jobs to China while shrinking its US workforce, President Trump will meet with GM CEO Mary Barra in the Oval Office on ThursdayReuters reported.

The meeting comes at a critical time: The White House is scrambling to convince GM and other automakers not to sign on to an agreement with the State of California to impose stricter fuel efficiency standards on their cars.

But that’s not the only issue that will be discussed.

According to Reuters, the agenda for the meeting will include the US-China trade conflict, ongoing contract talks between GM and its union employees and revising vehicle fuel efficiency standards. The White House confirmed Trump would meet with Barra at 1:45 p.m. ET in the Oval Office. GM declined to comment on the meetings.

 

Barra, of course, commands a massive blue-collar workforce spread across the Midwest, including tens of thousands of workers in critical swing states like Michigan and Ohio. She’s in the middle of contentious negotiations with UAW workers (of which the company employs some 46,000) over a new contract, and UAW leaders have threatened to strike. Trump definitely wants to keep those workers happy so they’ll have a reason to back him in 2020.

Last week, Trump bashed GM on Twitter, castigating the company for moving more jobs overseas, and suggesting that Barra – who earlier this year shuttered the company’s massive Lordestown Ohio production complex – consider moving production back to the US.

Trump also bashed GM, once “the Giant of Detroit”, for moving “major plants to China, BEFORE I CAME INTO OFFICE.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

General Motors, which was once the Giant of Detroit, is now one of the smallest auto manufacturers there. They moved major plants to China, BEFORE I CAME INTO OFFICE. This was done despite the saving help given them by the USA. Now they should start moving back to America again?

The president has sought to portray himself as a friend to American blue-collar workers, and union workers in Detroit are part of a key constituency for him that’s stretched across several swing states in the midwest, including Michigan and Ohio. Previously, Trump attacked GM for moving production to Mexico while closing plants in Michigan, Ohio and Maryland. The president has threatened to end subsidies to GM, and in June his administration threatened to end subsidies for the automaker, while rejecting a request made in June to waive tariffs on Buick Envisions made in China.

GM has repeatedly insisted that its China operations aren’t a threat to US jobs.

Back in July, several of the world’s biggest automakers signed a deal with the state of California to implement more strict fuel economy standards. The White House has vehemently opposed this deal, and have been begging GM not to join the agreement.

Trump even tweeted about the deal a few weeks ago, accusing the signatories of “rolling over” by agreeing to charge consumers more for a car that isn’t as “safe or good.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The Legendary Henry Ford and Alfred P. Sloan, the Founders of Ford Motor Company and General Motors, are “rolling over” at the weakness of current car company executives willing to spend more money on a car that is not as safe or good, and cost $3,000 more to consumers. Crazy!

GM hasn’t backed the deal because it claims California hasn’t given it enough credit for the electric vehicles that the company is rolling out.

More recently, Trump has praised GM for entering talks to potentially sell an idled Ohio plant an electric truck manufacturer

END

This is a disaster waiting to happen:  The We work IPO is targeting a 20 to 30 billion dollar valuation a huge discount from the latest round

(zerohedge)

WeWork Targets $20-$30 Billion IPO Valuation, Huge Discount To Latest Private Round

With the WeWork IPO roadshow expected to start as soon as next week as the company’s bankers feel a sense of growing urgency to take the company public asap in the aftermath of such recent bombs as Uber, Lyft, Chewy and most recently, Slack, which crashed yesterday wiping out all post-IPO gains, there was one big piece of the puzzle that was still missing: at what valuation would WeWork go public?

Now, according to Bloomberg, we know, with Bloomberg reporting that the New York-based office-rental startup whose lofty mission statement is to “elevate the world’s consciousness”, is seeking a valuation of about $20 billion to $30 billion in its U.S. initial public offering.

Considering that WeWork generated $1.54 billion in revenue in the first six months of 2019 and posted a net loss of $904 million, while losing an insane $1.4 trillion from operations, that would make the upper end of the range roughly 10x on sales and idiotic on a cash flow, EBITDA, or profit basis.

What is even more remarkable about this valuation is that it represents a massive haircut to the company’s latest private founding round: as a reminder, WeWork It started at a $97 million valuation with its Series A in 2009, and by its Series C in 2011, investors had valued the co-working behemoth at $4.8 billion, according to Craft, a website that tracks corporate financial data.

By 2015, WeWork’s valuation had reached $16 billion. Four billion dollars from Softbank last year boosted WeWork into $40 billion territory, and the funding round in January brought it to $47 billion.

In other words, at the $20 billion, low-end valuation, WeWork would be taking an almost 60% discount to the latest idiotic valuation round led by, who else, venture capital’s equivalent of “throw shit at the wall and see what sticks while revaluing the shit higher with every toss”, SoftBank.

To be sure, terms of the offering will likely still change and will be dependent on the market for the mood of its possible investors. WeWork is still discussing potential terms for the share sale, and the eventual valuation could change depending on investor demand, Bloomberg said citing sources. One thing is certain, however: insiders can’t wait to cash out, and none more so than CEO Adam Neumann, who recently sold some of his stock in the company and borrowed against his holdings to generate roughly $700 million, according to the Wall Street Journal – a surprising decision given that founders usually wait at least until after a company goes public before cashing out their shares.

end
The Fed has spoken through their mouthpiece WSJ Imarios.  It will be a cut of only quarter a point due to the fact that two voters are stubborn
(zerohedge)

WSJ Kills Hopes For A 50bps Fed Rate Cut In Two Weeks

Back in July, following the John Williams communications debacle in which the controversial NY Fed president made a huge mistake hinting at a 50bps rate cut, the Fed scrambled to advise the investing public that it had no intention of cutting that much. Back then it used the WSJ to convey its message.

Fast forward to today, when the WSJ’s new Fed whisperer Nick Timiraos – now that Jon Hilsenrath was moved on to WSJ Pro – doubled down and spelled out exactly what is coming at 2pm on Sept 18 when this month’s FOMC meeting concludesl, to wit: “officials are gearing up to reduce interest rates at their next policy meeting in two weeks, most likely by a quarter-percentage point, as the trade war between the U.S. and China darkens the global economic outlook.”

The reason for the trial balloon – the make it clear to investors that those doves pushing for a 50bps cut such as Kashkari and Bullard, have failed to convince the majority of FOMC voters and as a result “the idea of an aggressive half-point cut to battle the slowdown hasn’t gained much support inside the central bank.”

Perhaps having learned from his unprecedented July mistake, even NY Fed president John Williams on Wednesday admitted that “the economy is in a good place, but not without risk and uncertainty,” adding that “our role is to navigate a complex and at times ambiguous outlook to keep the economy growing and strong.”

Arguably one reason for today’s WSJ article is that while markets already expect the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 25bps at the Sept. 17-18 policy meeting – as investors place an 87% probability of a quarter-percentage-point rate cut – the concern is that markets are pricing in a total of 1.12 rate cuts in two weeks, suggesting a 13% probability of a larger, half-point cut, according to Bloomberg data. It is the risk of disappointing the doves here that is what the Fed wants to intercept, especially since Williams didn’t push back against those expectations in his speech. Increased uncertainty, he said, called for “vigilance and flexibility.”

While the global growth and trade outlook has deteriorated since the July FOMC meeting, with U.S. government bond yields dropping sharply after President Trump’s decision to increase tariffs on Chinese imports last month, and Beijing’s response with retaliatory measures, prompting Mr. Trump to announce further increases in tariffs – the recent news that talks will resume in October have sent yields sharply higher, with the 10Y yield back to 1.58%, the highest level since August 23.

And after today’s far stronger than expected ADP private payrolls and ISM non-manufacturing report, markets now look ahead at tomorrow’s payrolls update, plus new readings on retail sales and inflation next week, all of which could reshape officials’ outlook. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will also update the public on his outlook in a discussion Friday with the head of the Swiss National Bank.

And since US – if not German – economic data appears to be improving, most Fed officials have dismissed Bullard’s alarmism demanding for a 50bps rate cut, and instead have said the Fed shouldn’t overreact to market signals absent stronger evidence that weakness from the global economy or the manufacturing sector is spreading to the services sector or consumer spending. Judging by the strength of the US consumer – at least until the strong data is revised away – that evidence has yet to appear.

END

iv) Swamp commentaries

This should be interesting: Nunes files a civil lawsuit against Fusion stating that they were behind the smearing of his name with the purpose to obstruct justice and detail his investigation.  I would love to be a fly on the wall during their discoveries

(Sara Carter)

Nunes: Fusion GPS Bank Records Show Payments From Clinton Campaign & DNC

Via SaraACarter.com,

“I was often smeared,” Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) told Fox News.

“And now, what we know is, there’s a link between those who were doing the smearing and Fusion GPS.”

“When we were investigating Fusion GPS, they were actively involved in working to smear me to obstruct justice, to derail our investigation – and so, I’m gonna hold these guys accountable, and this is just one of many steps we’re gonna continue to take,” continued Nunes.

 

Nunes filed a $9.9 million federal conspiracy lawsuit in the Eastern District of Virginia alleging that the Fusion GPS behind the anti-Trump Steele dossier coordinated with another group to file several fraudulent and harassing ethics complaints intended to derail his investigation.

The complaint named Fusion GPS founder Glenn Simpson and the nonprofit Campaign for Accountability (CfA), said the “smear” tactics kicked into action shortly after Simpson “lied” in his closed-door testimony before the House Intelligence Committee in November 2017, as well as before the Senate Judiciary Committee in August 2017.

“The bank records produced by Fusion GPS revealed that the Clinton campaign, the DNC and Perkins Coie paid for Fusion GPS’ anti-Trump research,” Nunes’ complaint stated

END

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam to announce withdrawal of extradition bill: media report https://reut.rs/32oh07N

Stocks Jump as Risks Recede From U.K. to Hong Kong: Markets Wrap

Shares in Hong Kong leaped the most since 2018, buoying equities across Asia, after embattled leader Carrie Lam said she formally withdrew legislation to allow extraditions to China, the detonator for three months of often-violent protests. In the U.K., the pound surged while stocks rose and gilts slumped after Parliament took a crucial first step to block a no-deal Brexit. The euro advanced and most European bonds fell…    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-03/asia-stocks-to-dip-amid-trade-woes-weak-data-markets-wrap

China Cabinet Calls for ‘Timely’ Moves to Support Economy

  • PBOC expected to follow cabinet request for further easing
  • Economy slowed further in August amid trade, domestic risks

The State Council called for the “timely” use of tools including broad and targeted reserve-ratio cuts to support the economy, according to a statement following a meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-04/china-cabinet-calls-for-timely-rrr-cut-to-support-economy

Oil [+4%] and industry commodities soared on the Chinese stimulus news.

ESUs and Asian stocks soared on the withdrawal of Hong Kong’s extradition bill, the prospect of further PBoC easing [RRR cut & more local ‘special bond’ issuance] and the expectation that most of the 5 Fed officials scheduled to speak would deliver dovish comments.  ESUs hit 2935.25 at 3:37 ET.

NY Fed President John Williams says low inflation is ‘the problem of this era’

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/04/ny-feds-john-williams-says-low-inflation-is-the-problem-of-this-era.html

When will the media ask Fed officials why ‘low inflation’ is a problem?  It’s only a problem for those with onerous debt loads.  For centuries, economic progress was defined as industry delivering goods and services at LOWER PRICES.  Central bank inflation angst is solely due to the fear of debt.

Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook     September 04, 2019

John C. Williams, President and Chief Executive Office  

    The economy is in a good place, but not without risk and uncertainty (there, I said it!). Persistently low inflation is a key area of my attention, with the core PCE inflation rate—which strips out volatile food and energy prices—running at 1.6 percent, nearly half a percentage point below our 2 percent longer-run target… concerns around trade policy with China are adding to an uncertain picture…

https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2019/wil190904

B-Dud surfaced on Wednesday to explain his seditious call for the Fed to interfere in the 2020 Election.

What I Meant When I Said ‘Don’t Enable Trump’ [Liar, liar pants on fire!]

The Fed should push back to encourage better policy, not stand by and allow a recession.

     As I saw it, the combination of the trade war and the president’s attacks on the Fed threatened to put the central bank in an untenable position… I was suggesting that if the Fed pushed backed that it might be able to achieve a better economic outcome… And I was not trying to suggest that the Fed should take sides in the upcoming election [B-Dud, you’re full of it!  You explicitly called for intervention.]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-04/what-i-meant-when-i-said-don-t-enable-trump

B-Dud: There’s even an argument that the election itself falls within the Fed’s purview. After all, Trump’s reelection arguably presents a threat to the U.S. and global economyto the Fed’s independence and its ability to achieve its employment and inflation objectives. If the goal of monetary policy is to achieve the best long-term economic outcome, then Fed officials should consider how their decisions will affect the political outcome in 2020.   

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-27/the-fed-shouldn-t-enable-donald-trump

After Williams’ speech was released, ESUs rolled over on ‘buy the expectation, sell the deed’.  ESUs bottomed at 2921.75 at 10:12 ET.  Dallas Fed President Kaplan fomented a rally.

Kaplan: If You Wait for Consumer Weakness, It Might be Too Late – BBG

Kaplan said monetary policy is still a very potent force; risks to our forecast are to the downside and it’s relevant that fed funds rate is above the entire yield curve.  Then, Kaplan addressed one of our points about the yield curve: The entire yield curve moving down (shifting down) has eased financial conditions.

The Kaplan rally pushed ESUs within two handles of its session high.  ESUs then traded sideways until Chicago Fed President Evans abetted the usual a late rally that pushed ESUs and stocks to session highs.

Fed’s Evans says limits on trade, immigration could slow U.S. growth   https://yhoo.it/2NPs4Xt

@NorthmanTrader: Powell has said the Fed’s mission is now to extend the business cycle. This means he has to prevent market selloffs that dampen confidence.  I wish they would just come out & admit it, it is this blatantly obvious anyways. Hence rate cuts come because markets demand them

@Schuldensuehner: History is made on the bond markets: The 2020s will begin with the lowest interest rates in 5000 years, BofAML says.  [Chart at link]   https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1169244486209290240

Ex-Dallas Fed analyst Danielle DiMartino @DiMartinoBooth: The lower real interest rates are, the more prolonged & painful recessions are. Now to just communicate that message to central bankers who seem intent on continued financial repression (Irony alert: It’s the Fed’s own research that shows recession severity deepened by low rates)

@lisaabramowicz1: Deere sold 30-year bonds at an initial yield of 2.877%, the lowest on record for a corporate bond of that maturity.  [If rates are at record lows, what would even lower rates accomplish?]

Fed’s Beige Book Reports Modest Growth despite Trade Uncertainty

Economic activity and employment appeared to grow at a modest pace in August and late July

https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-beige-book-reports-modest-growth-despite-trade-uncertainty-11567620283?shareToken=stc4d3d30a71334927a962da51457ce52a&mod=e2twe

@zerohedge: Myth vs reality: Kashkari: “Tariffs and the trade war are really concerning businesses”

Beige Book: “although concerns regarding tariffs and trade policy uncertainty continued, the majority of businesses remained optimistic about the near-term outlook”

@BEA_News: The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in July as exports grew 0.6% and imports fell 0.1% https://go.usa.gov/xVZum

America’s merchandise trade with China continued to fall in July    https://bloom.bg/2zUyH2l

U.S. exports of goods to the Asian nation fell 2.7% from the prior month while imports declined 1.9%, narrowing the trade gap between the countries to a seasonally adjusted $29.6 billion…

The British House of Commons passed bill seeking to avert a no-deal Brexit on Oct. 31 UK lawmakers reject Johnson’s proposal for early election and Parliament rejected BoJo’s call for an early election.

ESUs are +22.0 at 21:30 ET on this:  @YuanTalks: China’s vice premier Liu He and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Sec Steven Mnuchin had phone talks Thur morning; The two sides agreed to have next round of trade talks early Oct in Washington (CCTV news)

 

The S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 2944; 100-day MA: 2912; 150-day MA: 2874; 200-day MA: 2808

The DJIA 50-day MA: 26,559; 100-day MA: 26,295; 150-day MA: 26,116; 200-day MA: 25,633

 

S&P 500 Index support: 2930, 2922, 2914, 2900, 2880, 2870, 2860, 2853, 2840, 2835, 2830-32, 2822-25

Resistance: 2939, 2945, 2955, 2970, 2980, 2990, 3000, 3013-17, 3027

 

Expected economic data: ADP Aug Employment Change 148k; Nonfarm Productivity 2.2%, Unit Labor Costs 2.4%; Initial Jobless Claims 215k, Continuing Claims 1.688m; Markit Aug US Services PMI 50.9; ISM Aug Services PMI 54; July Factory Orders 1.0%; July Durables Orders 2.1%, ex-Trans -0.4%

 

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames

Monthly: Trender is positive;MACD is negative – a close below 2502.93 triggers a sell signal

Weekly: Trender is positive;MACD is negative – a close below 2816.78 triggers a sell signal

Daily: Trender is negative; MACD is positive -a close above 2980.42 triggers a buy signal

Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 2905.65 triggers a sell signal

 

Former Obama counsel Greg Craig found not guilty of lying in connection to Ukraine-related work http://hill.cm/FgtMdJo

@TomFitton: A major fail for Mueller crew – further undermines similar allegation against Gen Flynn

@ZoeTillmanRep. Devin Nunes filed a $9.9M+ racketeering lawsuit today against Fusion GPS, accusing the group of conspiring to intimidate and harass him in retaliation for investigating the Steele dossier   https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6382462/9-4-19-Nunes-v-Fusion-GPS-Complaint.pdf

 

Andrew McCabe to Headline Dem Fundraiser in Pennsylvania

https://freebeacon.com/politics/andrew-mccabe-to-headline-dem-fundraiser-in-pennsylvania/

 

The MSM have been in frenzy at the prospect that Gen. Mattis would skewer Trump in his new book.

 

James Mattis’s Blistering Criticism of Obama – He is mum on Trump but skewers Obama for taking a wrecking ball to American prestige and power…

    In the spring of 2011, Attorney General Eric Holder revealed an Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador on U.S. soil.  Mattis urged the White House to make the public case for reprisals against Tehran. He was rebuffed. “We treated an act of war as a law enforcement violation, jailing the low level courier.”… The following year, Barack Obama failed to enforce his “red line” against Syrian dictator Bashar Assad’s use of chemical weapons against civilians. “This was a shot not heard around the world,” Mattis writes…  https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/09/james-mattiss-blistering-criticism-of-obama/

 

Chicago Sun-Times [not a parody]: Jussie Smollett lawyers: Even if actor faked attack, cops didn’t need to investigate it so vigorously [The usual suspects DEMANDED that cops investigate the attack.]

https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2019/9/4/20848715/jussie-smollett-chicago-police-probe-lawsuit-gay-homophobic-attack

Attachments area

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

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