SEPT 10/GOLD DOWN $11.25//SILVER UP 2 CENTS//DESPITE THE RAID THE COMEX AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ARE BOTH POSITIVE WHICH MEANS BANKER FAILURE TO FLEECE LONGS//MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER OF OVER 1 MILLION OZ//ALSO GOLD HAS CONSIDERABLE QUEUE JUMPING..AND THIS MEANS PHYSICAL SHORTAGE//

GOLD:$1492.00 DOWN $11.25 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$18.11 UP 2 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1485.50

 

silver:  $18.00

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 17/51

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,502.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/09/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 09/11/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 2
661 C JP MORGAN 25
661 H JP MORGAN 17
686 C INTL FCSTONE 38
737 C ADVANTAGE 3 7
905 C ADM 10
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 51 51
MONTH TO DATE: 1,691

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT CONTRACT: 51 NOTICE(S) FOR 5100 OZ (0.1586 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1691 NOTICES FOR 169100 OZ  (5.2597 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR SEPT

 

 

458 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 2,290,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 7447 for   37,235,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10230 DOWN 730 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 9967 DOWN 330

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG  SIZED 1599 CONTRACTS FROM 216,199 UP TO 217,798 DESPITE THE 6 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

SEPT: 0FOR DEC: 1427, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1427 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1427 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1427 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 7.135 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 6 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

39.535   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

WE HAD NO DOUBT  SOME COVERING OF BANKER SHORTS AGAIN AT THE SILVER COMEX ON FRIDAY WITH THE HUGE RAID ORCHESTRATED BY THE CROOKED BANKERS AT 12:30 PM EST.  HOWEVER IN CONTRAST TO THURSDAY,  TOTAL OI INCREASED DRAMATICALLY DESPITE THE FURTHER DRUBBING IN PRICE OF OUR SILVER  METAL WITH THE ABOVE AFOREMENTIONED RAID.

THE LIQUIDATION OF COMEX OI OF SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED AND WE WILL NOW COMMENCE WITH THE ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADERS GOLD OPEN INTEREST

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT:

15,462 CONTRACTS (FOR 6 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 15,462 CONTRACTS) OR 77.310 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2577 CONTRACTS OR 14.045 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  77.310 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 10.03% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1627.03   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1599, DESPITE THE 6 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1427 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG  SIZED: 3026 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1599 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1419  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 6 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.09 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.089 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 154% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 458 NOTICE(S) FOR 2,290,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/  SEPT 39.535 MILLION OZ// 
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 1741 CONTRACTS, TO 617,795 DESPITE THE  $4.75 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// /

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2968 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  2958 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 617,795,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY GOOD SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3709 CONTRACTS: 741 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 2968 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 3709 CONTRACTS OR 370,900 OZ OR 11.53 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A LOSS OF $4.75 IN GOLD TRADING….AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GOOD GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 11.53  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON  TRYING TO CONTAIN GOLD’S PRICE AS WELL AS ATTEMPTING TO FLEECE SOME UNSUSPECTING LONGS. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 48,636 CONTRACTS OR 4,863,600 oz OR 151.27 TONNES (6 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 8106 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 151.27 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 151.27/3550 x 100% TONNES =4.26% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4302.89  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 741 DESPITE THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($4.75)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 2968 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 2968 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 3709 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

2968 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 741 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 11.53 TONNES). ..AND THIS GOOD INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE  LOSS IN PRICE OF $4.75 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  51 notice(s) filed upon for 5100 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $11.25 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.33 TONNES OF WHICH IS USED IN THE RAID YESTERDAY/TODAY

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 2  CENTS TODAY: THE CROOKS ARE AT IT AGAIN!!

ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A “PAPER” WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION OZ OF SILVER

FROM THE SLV/THIS WAS USED TO CONTAIN SILVER TODAY.

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 1599 CONTRACTS from 216,199 UP TO 217,798 AND CLOSER TO A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR SEPT. 0; FOR DEC  1427  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1427 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1599  CONTRACTS TO THE 1427 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 3026 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 15.13 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ// AND FINALLY SEPT: 39.535 MILLION OZ/

 

 

 

 

RESULT: A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 6 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 1427 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.54 POINTS OR 0.12%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 2.28 POINTS OR 0.01%   /The Nikkei closed UP 73.68 POINTS OR 0.35%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .47%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.1054 /Oil UP TO 58.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.08 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED EXCEPT GERMAN DAX//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.1054 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1061 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)A good commentary explaining why the millenials are protesting big time in Hong Kong: the expensive cost of housing

(zerohedge)

ii)This does not bode well. China’s Xi just cannot believe what Trump is saying to him.

(zerohedge)

iii)Kyle Bass believes that Jack Ma, chairman of Alibaba will be either jailed or disappeared within one year as Xi does not like Ma’s strength in the financial community. If this were to come to pass, then that would end the Shanghai stock market ec.(Kyle Bass/zerohedge)

iv)China removes the 300 billion dollar Foreign Investment Limits for stock and bond markets..but nobody cares as already it was only 1/3 used

(zerohedge)

v)China vows to crush all pro democracy protesters in Hong Kong.  They also warn the USA and other foreign nations against any influence in Hong Kong

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

As expected the UK parliament votes down an early election mainly because most of the remainers will lose their seat.

I think that BoJO knows what he is doing.  Follow Mish Shedlock’s view of how this thing will proceed

(zerohedge)

ii)Bill Blain explains what is worrying him today

(Bill Blain)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Israel/Hamas/GAZA

Hamas initiates as series of rocket attacks on Israel. You can be sure that Israel will strike at Gaza later tonight

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Pam and Russ Martens on the truth of stock market gains

(Pam and Russ Martens/Wall Street on Parade)

ii)GATA chairman Bill Murphy describes gold’s assent despite the dollar’s rise.

(courtesy GATA)

iii)Ed Steer highlights the brazen raid on all four 4 precious metals last Friday.

(ed Steer)

iv)This is good.  Mark Mobius is now bullish on gold

(Kitco)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

a)Another indicator that the uSA economy is faltering: job openings decline big time. Hires rise but also quits surge

(JOLTS/zerohedge)

b)As promised to you, the fiscal deficit for this year ending this month will be in excess of 1 trillion dollars.  However if you add in the off balance sheet auto loans and student loans, you get your 1.2 trillion true deficit

(courtesy Market Watch)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

i)My goodness is Illinois bust!! They just recorded a huge 47 billion dollar loss due to understatement of pension liability

(zerohedge/Mark Glennon )

ii)This is going to be an accident waiting to happen.  The newest darling stock, We Work, which has huge valuation and yet not worth a penny just saw its bonds tumble below a critical level
(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)This has to be a big joke:  The Dems are now probing whether Trump and Guiliani pressured the Ukraine to hurt the Biden campaign even though the Bidens stole billions from the Ukraine

(zerohedge)

b)Another big joke  the FBI was given huge evidence of a Clinton linked Libyra scheme, They ignored that and instead launched the phony Trump Russia mess

(zerohedge)

c)What took Trump so long?  Bolton is finally fired and now the swamp is rid of one war mongerer

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 741 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 617,795 DESPITE THE LOSS OF $4.75 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2968 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR SEPT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 0   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2968 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 3709 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2968 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 741 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD IN OUR 3RD CONSECUTIVE RAID YESTERDAY.  THE BANKERS SUCCEEDED IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE BY A CONSIDERABLE $4.75. HOWEVER, JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY CONSIDERABLE UNSUSPECTING LONGS. 

 

 

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  4852 CONTRACTS OR 485,200 OZ OR 15.09 TONNES.

We are now in the NON  active contract month of SEPT and here the open interest stands at 96 CONTRACTS and surprisingly we gained 31 contracts.  We had 14 notices filed yesterday so despite the raid and liquidation of contracts we gained 45 contracts or an additional 4500 oz of gold that will  stand for delivery at the comex and the siege continues as the story for physical gold is the name of the game despite the criminal antics of the bankers or their sovereign masters.

The next active delivery month is October and here the OI FELL by 181 contracts DOWN to 41,698. The month of November saw a GAIN of  9 contract and thus the OI is RAISED TO 27.  The very big December contract month saw its oi FALL by only 262 contracts despite the drubbing gold took.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 51 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  5100 OZ. (.1586 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 1599 CONTRACTS FROM 216,199 UP TO 217,798 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 6 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.  HERE WE HAVE 918 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A GAIN OF 34 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 203 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE AGAIN SURPRISINGLY GAINED A HUGE 237 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 1,185,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..  THE NEXT NON ACTIVE CONTRACT MONTH IS OCTOBER AND IT RECEIVED ANOTHER 93 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1640. NOVEMBER SAW A SMALL GAIN OF 15 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 117. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 931 CONTRACTS UP TO 171,288.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 458 notice(s) filed for 2,290,000, OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 379,489  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  336,674  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  SEPT/GOLD

SEPT 10/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
2123.385 oz
incl. 63 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
51 notice(s)
 5100 OZ
(0.1586 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
45 contracts
(4500 oz)
.1399 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1691 notices
169,100 OZ
5.2597 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii)everybody else: 0

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 0  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ zero amount  arrived   today

we had 2 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i) Out of Scotia: 2025.45 oz (63 kilobars)…and a phony entry

ii) Out of Brinks; 97.935 oz

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 2123.385   oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today
FOR THE SEPT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 51 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 17 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1691) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT. (96 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (51 x 100 oz per contract) equals 173,600 OZ OR 5.3994 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of SEPT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1691 x 100 oz)  + (96)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (51 x 100 oz )which equals 173,600 oz standing OR 5.3994 TONNES in this  active delivery month of AUGUST.

 

We surprisingly again gained a GOOD 45 contracts or an additional 4500 oz will seek metal on this side of the pond instead of morphing over to London.  The gold comex is now under siege for any remaining physical metal.

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 27.153  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING //AUGUST AND 5.3994 TONNES IN SEPT.//

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT AND THUS I WILL ADD THE 27.153 TONNES TO THE 5.3994 TONNES (EQUALS 32.552 TONNES) AGAINST THE 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  736,702.381 oz or  22.91 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,098,996.169 oz 251.912 tonnes

IN THE LAST 35 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
SEPT 10 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 344,994.590 oz
Delaware
HSBC
Brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,199,488.88 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
458
CONTRACT(S)
(2,290,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
460 contracts
 2,300,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  7447 contracts

37,235,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into CNT:  1,199,488.88 oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  1,199488.88  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of Delaware: 2810.900 oz

ii) Out of HSBC: 293,215.000 oz  ???

iii) Out of Brinks: 48,968.69 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 344,994.590  oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

i) Out of CNT: 599,828.430 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of CNT and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

ii) Out of Int. Delaware:  147,718.162 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of Int Del. and this landed into the dealer account of Int. Del

iii) Out of Scotia, eligible: 1456.316 oz removed..accounting error.

 

total dealer silver:  85.260 million

total dealer + customer silver:  313.072 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER 2019. contract month is represented by 458 contract(s) FOR 2.290,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 7447 x 5,000 oz = 37,235,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (918) and the number of notices served upon today 458 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2019 contract month: 7447 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (918)- number of notices served upon today (458)x 5000 oz equals 39,535,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month. 

We gained another strong 237 contracts or a huge 1,185,000 additional oz of silver will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER AND DESPITE THE MASSIVE RAID, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. ACTUALLY IT IS QUITE SURREAL TO SEE  MASSIVE STRONG QUEUE JUMPING, (MEANING A HUGE DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER/GOLD) AND YET WE WITNESS THE CONSTANT WHACKING OF THE PRICE OF OUR TWO METALS. IT PROVES WE HAVE TWO MARKETS: A DEMAND FOR A PHYSICAL METAL AND A WEAKER DEMAND FOR PAPER GOLD/SILVER CAUSED BY OUR INFINITE SHORTING OF THAT PAPER METAL BY THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 458 notice(s) filed for 2,290,000 OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  114,807 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 143,898 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 143,878 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 719 million  OZ 102% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.53% ((SEPT 10/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.15% to NAV (SEPT 6/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.53%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.05 TRADING 14.56/DISCOUNT 3.27

 

 

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A HUGE 7.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.15 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: I)A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD (LATE YESTERDAY EVENING) AND 2) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES LATE THIS AFTERNOON./INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.17 TONNES

AUGUST 20//WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WE GOT BACK 7.63 TONNES OUT OF 11.11 TONNES LOST ON WEDNESDAY( A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

 

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

 

 

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SEPT 10/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 889.75 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 660 TRADING DAYS: 52.96 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 560- TRADING DAYS: A NET 113.69 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION PAPER OZ OF SILVER///INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.425 MILLION PAPER OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.179 MILLION OZ../

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 60 CENTS TODAY: A RATHER TIMID CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 842,000 PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 386.604 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.696 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20.WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 16/: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 15/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/2019:

 

 

Inventory 379.401 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.05/ and libor 6 month duration 2.04

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .01

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.95%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.95

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.00

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Protect Oneself’ From A ‘Paradigm Shift’ Akin to the 1930s With Gold Diversification – Ray Dalio

 

Diversify Well To Protect Oneself Against The Coming ‘Paradigm Shift’

by Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates

The most important forces that now exist are:

1) The End of the Long-Term Debt Cycle (When Central Banks Are No Longer Effective)
+

2) The Large Wealth Gap and Political Polarity
+

3) A Rising World Power Challenging an Existing World Power
=

The Bond Blow-Off, Rising Gold Prices, and the Late 1930s Analogue

In other words now
1) central banks have limited ability to stimulate,
2) there is large wealth and political polarity and
3) there is a conflict between China as a rising power and the US as an existing world power.

If/when there is an economic downturn, that will produce serious problems in ways that are analogous to the ways that the confluence of those three influences produced serious problems in the late 1930s.

Before I get into the meat of what I hope to convey, I will repeat my simple timeless and universal template for understanding and anticipating what is happening in the economy and markets.

My Template

There are four important influences that drive economies and markets:

  1. Productivity
  2. The short-term debt/business cycle
  3. The long-term debt cycle
  4. Politics (within countries and between countries).

There are three equilibriums:

  1. Debt growth is in line with the income growth required to service the debt,
  2. The economy’s operating rate is neither too high (because that will produce unacceptable inflation and inefficiencies) nor too low (because economically depressed levels of activity will produce unacceptable pain and political changes), and
  3. The projected returns of cash are below the projected returns of bonds, which are below the projected returns of equities and the projected returns of other “risky assets.”

And there are two levers that the government has to try to bring things into equilibrium:

  1. Monetary policy
  2. Fiscal policy

The equilibriums move around in relation to each other to produce changes in each like a perpetual motion machine, simultaneously trying to find their equilibrium level. When there are big deviations from one or more of the equilibriums, the forces and policy levers react in ways that one can pretty much expect in order to move them toward their equilibriums.

For example, when growth and inflation fall to lower than the desired equilibrium levels, central banks will ease monetary policies which lowers the short-term interest rate relative to expected bond returns, expected returns on equities, and expected inflation. Expected bond returns, equity returns, and inflation themselves change in response to changes in expected conditions (e.g. if expected growth is falling, bond yields will fall and stock prices will fall).

These price changes happen until debt and spending growth pick up to shift growth and inflation back toward inflation. And of course all this affects politics (because political changes will happen if the equilibriums get too far out of line), which affects fiscal and monetary policy. More simply and most importantly said, the central bank has the stimulant which can be injected or withdrawn and cause these things to change most quickly.

Fiscal policy, which changes taxes and spending in politically motivated ways, can also be changed to be more stimulative or less stimulative in response to what is needed but that happens in lagging and highly inefficient ways.

For a simpler explanation of this template see my 30-minute animated video “How the Economic Machine Works” and for a more comprehensive explanation see my book Understanding the Principles of Big Debt Crises, which is available free as a PDF here or in print on Amazon. Also, to learn more about our extensive debt cycle research, please visit our debt crises research library on Bridgewater.com.

Looking at What Is Happening Now in the Context of That Template

Regarding the above template and where we are now, in my opinion, the most important things that are happening (which last happened in the late 1930s) are

a) we are approaching the ends of both the short-term and long-term debt cycles in the world’s three major reserve currencies, while

b) the debt and non-debt obligations (e.g. healthcare and pensions) that are coming at us are larger than the incomes that are required to fund them,

c) large wealth and political gaps are producing political conflicts within countries that are characterized by larger and more extreme levels of internal conflicts between the rich and the poor and between capitalists and socialists,

d) external politics is driven by the rising of an emerging power (China) to challenge the existing world power (the US), which is leading to a more extreme external conflict and will eventually lead to a change in the world order, and [Ian Bremmer calls this the return of a bi-polar world but with significant differences in the goals of the powers—JM]

e) the excess expected returns of bonds is compressing relative to the returns on the cash rates central banks are providing.

As for monetary policy and fiscal policy responses, it seems to me that we are classically in the late stages of the long-term debt cycle when central banks’ power to ease in order to reverse an economic downturn is coming to an end because:

  • Monetary Policy 1 (i.e. the ability to lower interest rates) doesn’t work effectively because interest rates get so low that lowering them enough to stimulate growth doesn’t work well,
  • Monetary Policy 2 (i.e. printing money and buying financial assets) doesn’t work well because that doesn’t produce adequate credit in the real economy (as distinct from credit growth to leverage up investment assets), so there is “pushing on a string.” That creates the need for…
  • Monetary Policy 3 (large budget deficits and monetizing of them) which is problematic especially in this highly politicized and undisciplined environment.

More specifically, central bank policies will push short-term and long-term real and nominal interest rates very low and print money to buy financial assets because they will need to set short-term interest rates as low as possible due to the large debt and other obligations (e.g. pensions and healthcare obligations) that are coming due and because of weakness in the economy and low inflation.

Their hope will be that doing so will drive the expected returns of cash below the expected returns of bonds, but that won’t work well because:

a) these rates are too close to their floors,

b) there is a weakening in growth and inflation expectations which is also lowering the expected returns of equities,

c) real rates need to go very low because of the large debt and other obligations coming due, and

d) the purchases of financial assets by central banks stays in the hands of investors rather than trickles down to most of the economy (which worsens the wealth gap and the populist political responses).

This has happened at a time when investors have become increasingly leveraged long due to the low interest rates and their increased liquidity. As a result we see the market driving down short-term rates while central banks are also turning more toward long-term interest rate and yield curve controls, just as they did from the late 1930s through most of the 1940s.

To put this interest rate situation in perspective, see the long-term debt/interest rate wave in the following chart. As shown below, there was a big inflationary blow-off that drove interest rates into a blow-off in 1980–82. During that period, Paul Volcker raised real and nominal interest rates to what were called the highest levels “since the birth of Jesus Christ,” which caused the reversal.

During the period leading into the 1980–82 peak, we saw the blow-off in gold. The below chart shows the gold price from 1944 (near the end of the war and the beginning of the Bretton Woods monetary system) into the 1980–82 period (the end of the inflationary blow-off). Note that the bull move in gold began in 1971, when the Bretton Woods monetary system that linked the dollar to gold broke down and was replaced by the current fiat monetary system. The de-linking of the dollar from gold set off that big move. During the resulting inflationary/gold blow-off, there was the big bear move in bonds that reversed with the extremely tight monetary policies of 1979–82.

Since then, we have had a mirror-like symmetrical reversal (a dis/deflationary blow-off). Look at the current inflation rates at the current cyclical peaks (i.e. not much inflation despite the world economy and financial markets being near a peak and despite all the central banks’ money printing) and imagine what they will be at the next cyclical lows. That is because there are strong deflationary forces at work as productive capacity has increased greatly. These forces are creating the need for extremely loose monetary policies that are forcing central banks to drive interest rates to such low levels and will lead to enormous deficits that are monetized, which is creating the blow-off in bonds that is the reciprocal of the 1980–82 blow-off in gold. The charts below show the 30-year T-bond returns from that 1980–82 period until now, which highlight the blow-off in bonds.

To understand the current period, I recommend that you understand the workings of the 1935–45 period closely, which is the last time similar forces were at work to produce a similar dynamic.

Please understand that I’m not saying that the past is prologue in an identical way. What I am saying that the basic cause/effect relationships are analogous:

a) approaching the ends of the short-term and long-term debt cycles, while

b) the internal politics is driven by large wealth and political gaps, which are producing large internal conflicts between the rich and the poor and between capitalists and socialists, and

c) the external political conflict that is driven by the rising of an emerging power to challenge the existing world power, leading to significant external conflict that eventually leads to a change in the world order.

As a result, there is a lot to be learned by understanding the mechanics of what happened then (and in other analogous times before then) in order to understand the mechanics of what is happening now.

It is also worth understanding how paradigm shifts work and how to diversify well to protect oneself against them.

by Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates, August 28, 2019 via Linkedin

RELATED CONTENT

Bitcoin “Is A Bubble” but Gold Is Money Says World’s Biggest Hedge Fund Manager

Dalio Warns Of Dollar Crisis – “History Is Doomed To Repeat Itself”

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold pulls back, suffer a 3-session skid

Gold edges up on rate cut bets, firmer equities limit upside

Top U.S. regulator warns over corporate debt, market risks

JPMorgan’s new “Volfefe” index tracks the impact of Trump’s tweets on markets

Three Big Issues Likely To Lead To Rising Gold Prices – Dalio on Linkedin

Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Digest

Are Stock Markets Really Setting New Highs?

Can Mario Draghi save the eurozone all over again?

Gold Prices (LBMA – USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)

09-Sep-19 1509.95 1509.20, 1223.81 1220.34 &1368.62 1364.92
06-Sep-19 1504.95 1523.70, 1223.52 1237.09 & 1363.94 1378.49
05-Sep-19 1542.60 1529.10, 1257.06 1238.72 & 1397.44 1380.78
04-Sep-19 1538.80 1546.10, 1265.05 1269.97 & 1397.69 1403.86
03-Sep-19 1532.45 1537.85, 1278.06 1277.80 & 1400.35 1403.44
02-Sep-19 1523.35 1525.95, 1260.42 1265.01 & 1388.69 1391.51
30-Aug-19 1526.55 1528.40, 1253.14 1251.15 & 1382.75 1383.51
29-Aug-19 1536.65 1540.20, 1260.51 1262.96 & 1387.29 1392.03

Click here to listen to the latest GoldCore Podcast

Receive our free Daily or Weekly Updates by signing up here and click here to subscribe to GoldCore’s You Tube Channel

 

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Directo

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Pam and Russ Martens on the truth of stock market gains

(Pam and Russ Martens/Wall Street on Parade)

Pam and Russ Martens: Are corporate media tricking public with reports that stock market is setting new highs?

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Monday, September 9, 2019

On January 26, 2018, the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new record high of 26,616.71. Despite setting new highs multiple times thereafter, the moves were so negligible on a percentage basis that the reality is that the stock market has been a real dog over the past year and a half.

This past Friday the Dow closed at 26,797.46. That’s a meager 180.75 points, or less than 1% percent move in 19 months. That’s not exactly the stuff retirement dreams are built on.

… 

But if you’re a typical American who has to rely on headlines or TV sound bites to tell you what’s going on in the market because you’re too busy working long hours, running the kids to dentist appointments and soccer games, and doing grocery shopping and laundry on the weekends, then you may have been fooled by corporate media into thinking the stock market has been doing great. Here’s why. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/09/is-corporate-media-tricking-the-p…

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

GATA chairman Bill Murphy describes gold’s assent despite the dollar’s rise.

(courtesy GATA)

Gold is rising quite apart from dollar’s performance, GATA chairman says

 Section: 

3:14p ET Monday, September 9, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, interviewed by Michelle Holiday for Portfolio Growth Global, says the gold price is rising quite apart from the performance of the U.S. dollar, because central banks and the investment houses trading for them are running out of the metal needed to continue price suppression.

Murphy also describes GATA’s history in exposing government price-suppression policy

The interview is 26 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iX5iAZsPgs

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Ed Steer highlights the brazen raid on all four 4 precious metals last Friday.

(ed Steer)

Ed Steer: Another brazen attack on all four precious metals

 Section: 

7:30p ET Monday, September 9, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA board member Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Digest letter for Saturday, headlined “Another Brazen Attack on All Four Precious Metals,” has been posted in the clear at GoldSeek here:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1568053308.php

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

This is good.  Mark Mobius is now bullish on gold

(Kitco)

Kitco News) – Gold will be the last global currency standing as central banks around the world race to debase their paper money, according to billionaire investor Mark Mobius, the founding partner of Mobius Capital Partners.

Mark Mobius, founder of Mobius Capital Partners LLP

Friday, in an interview with CNBC, Mobius reiterated his bullish outlook on gold and said that all investors should have at least 10% of their portfolio in physical gold.

“Physical gold is the way to go, in my view, because of the incredible increase in money supply,” said Mobius, in the interview. “All the central banks are trying to get interest rates down, they are pumping money into the system. Then, you have all of the cryptocurrencies coming in, so nobody really knows how much currency is out there.”

Last month, Mobius told Bloomberg TV that investors should buy gold at any level because the price is going “up, up, up.”

His latest comments to CNBC come as gold prices hold critical support above $1,500 an ounce. December gold futures last traded at $1,510.60 an ounce, down 0.36% on the day. The yellow metal is down from last month’s six-year high.

Mobius added that the recent strength in the U.S. dollar could be the spark that ignites a global currency war. Although off its recent highs, the U.S. Dollar Index continues to hold near a two-year high, trading over 98 points.

Mobius said the dollar could start to slide as the Trump administration voices its support for a weak U.S. dollar in an attempt to boost U.S. exports.

“They are certainly going to try to weaken the dollar against other currencies and of course, it’s a race to the bottom. Because, as soon as they do that, other currencies will also weaken,” said Mobius. “People are going to finally realize that you got to have gold, because all the currencies will be losing value.”

Because of its role as a stable global currency, Mobius said that central banks will continue to increase their holdings in the yellow metal. He added that China will continue to be a big gold buyer in the current environment.

Over the weekend, the People’s Bank of China reported that it increased its gold reserves by 6 tonnes in August. The Chinese central bank has purchased nearly 100 tonnes of gold since December.

“China is the biggest producer of gold to begin with. And then of course, they’ve been buying gold, so nobody really knows how much they have in the vaults,” said Mobius.

But it is more than just China buying. Data from the World Gold Council (WGC) shows that central banks have a ravenous demand for the yellow metal.

In the first half of the year, central banks bought 374.1 tonnes of gold — “the largest net H1 increase in global gold reserves in our 19-year quarterly data series,” the WGC said in a report published last month.

“Central banks, like other investors, sought safety in gold as they looked to protect themselves in the face of many looming risks,” the analysts said.

The WGC has also said that they don’t expect central bank gold buying to end anytime soon as global uncertainty and the threat of a global recession continues to loom on the horizon.

end
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.1054/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.1061   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 3.54 POINTS OR 0.12%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 2.28 POINTS OR 0.01%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 73.68 POINTS OR 0.35%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED EXCEPT GERMAN DAX/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.43/Euro FALLS TO 1.1034

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.22/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.38/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.21 and Brent: 63/08

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.58%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 0.95% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.23%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.53: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.63

3k Gold at $1491.85 silver at: 17.89   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 4/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.48

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.38 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9915 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0943 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.58%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.64% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.11%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7746…GETTING DANGEROUS..

US Futures Drift Higher On Chinese Invitation To Bagholders, Trade And Central Bank Optimism

There wasn’t the usual trade talk optimism overnight, nor central bank trial balloons that record low interest rates will be dragged even deeper into negative territory.

Instead, what helped send European equity markets and US equity futures back in the green after an overnight slump that pushed the Emini from 2,985 to 2,965, was news that China removed one more hurdle for foreign investment into its capital markets almost 20 years after it first allowed access, when Beijing scrapped quotas for approved foreign institutional investors in domestic bond and equity markets. This means that all those WeWork bagholders who may have lost a majority of their investments, can now go ahead and lose the other half by investing in China, where the auditors have a habit of “community adjusting” everything.

In any case, the news helped send the Emini back in the green from overnight session lows just after the European open..

… with global markets back to unchanged.

Meanwhile, what we said about no central bank trial balloons, well we were kidding, because just after 7am, Reuters leaked that the BOJ “may be open to debate additional easing”, because apparently the existing easing has worked so well. According to the report, the BOJ is considering taking rates further into negative territory if it decides to ease, but other options – such as tiering – also remain on the table, Reuters reports, citing unidentified people familiar. The BOJ’s decision on whether and when to ease is expected to be a close call; conclusion may not be final until the last minute which will be just after the Fed’s own rate cut announcement. Ultimately, the BOJ’s thinking is driven by the bank’s growing less confident about early pickup in global growth

Actually, it turns out that we were also kidding about the lack of trade optimism: according to Bloomberg, China’s Premier Li said that US and China should find a solution to the ongoing trade dispute, adding that he hopes (there’s that word again) that trade talks make progress.In response there was an immediate “risk on” move as European equity indices spiked higher as a result of these headlines with the DAX Sep’ 19 futures spiking higher to 12,265 from 12,235, while the crude complex and USD/JPY also saw positive ticks. That said, the sharp move higher in US equities was less pronounced and quickly faded.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped a second day, led by financial services and health-care shares, although it rebounded following the China Li and BOJ more easing news. The pound fluctuated as embattled British Prime Minister Boris Johnson insisted he won’t ask for another Brexit delay, while U.K. wage and unemployment data beat estimates. Most euro-zone sovereign bonds nudged lower as European Central Bank officials prepare to meet.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fluctuated, with energy producers advancing and health-care firms retreating. Markets in the region were mixed as investors assessed the global growth outlook and China-U.S. trade negotiations with South Korea up and Thailand down. The Topix climbed 0.4%, as Japanese banks contributed most to gains following a rebound in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which in turn pushed JGB yields modestly higher as well. The Shanghai Composite Index edged down 0.1%, snapping a six-day rising streak, after China’s PPI fell further into contraction, threatening to add deflationary pressure to the global economy (See below) with Kweichow Moutai and Ping An Insurance Group among the biggest drags. The big news out of China, as noted above, is that global funds no longer need approvals to purchase quotas to buy Chinese stocks and bonds, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said in a statement on Tuesday. It removed the $300 billion overall cap on overseas purchases of the assets, about two-thirds of which remain unused.

Also overnight, China reported that its headline CPI inflation was flat at 2.8% year-on-year in August, just above consensus expectations and close to the 3% policy target; in month-on-month terms, headline CPI inflation moderated to +2.9% in August from +3.5% in July. A bigger problem was the second consecutive print of negative year-over-year PPI inflation, which moderated further to -0.8% yoy in August, on both a high base (PPI up 3.6% mom s.a. ann in August 2018) and a sequential decline of 2.8% mom s.a. ann in August. Inflation in the ferrous metals sector slowed the most, followed by petroleum industry, suggesting corporate profits will be further depressed in coming months.

In emerging markets, a four-day rally in equities stalled and the risk premium on sovereign debt rose as investors marked time before the resumption of trade talks between China and the U.S. as well as central-bank meetings in coming days. Developing-nation stocks climbed almost 4% in the previous four days after China and the U.S. announced face-to-face negotiations aimed at ending the tariff war would be held in Washington next month. China, meantime, removed one more hurdle for foreign investment into its capital markets almost 20 years after it first allowed access, when it said Tuesday that global funds no longer need approvals to purchase quotas to buy Chinese stocks and bonds.

With the European Central Bank announcing its policy decision in Thursday and the Federal Reserve next up, investors are hoping on increased monetary stimulus to prop up markets. A gauge of emerging-market currencies gained for a fifth day, the longest streak since June, with South Africa’s rand leading the advance.

“Markets were oversold, rebounded and without any genuinely positive catalysts are faltering again,” said Julian Rimmer, a trader at Investec Bank in London. “Funds were clearly bearishly positioned over the summer with the salami slicing of global growth expectations, low volumes and the worldwide hunt for yield. Some of that negativity has diminished slightly so we had some short-covering and a bit more risk-on, but fundamentally nothing has changed and all those concerns are still apparent.”

In rates, European bond markets inched lower while the region’s stocks declined for a second day ahead of Thursday’s ECB policy announcement. Bear steepening resumed in the German curve although the long-end claws back some initial weakness to trade back at 0%. Peripheral spreads widened to core, with the long-end of the Spanish curve underperforming. Gilts drifted lower after robust domestic employment and wages data, but as ever, Brexit keeps any hawkish repricing in check.

The recent pullback in the bond rally “is a correction to an outsized move in yields during August, not a turn in the trend,” Kit Juckes, chief global FX strategist at Societe Generale SA, wrote in his daily note. “Last Friday’s U.S. labor market data show, clearly enough for me, that the U.S. economy is slowing slowly but steadily as the global trade slowdown infects it.”

In geopolitical news, North Korea launched 2 projectiles; a Japanese Defence Ministry official later commented that the latest North Korea missiles pose no immediate threat to Japan’s national security. Pakistani Foreign Minister has told UN Human Rights council that India’s “illegal Kashmir military occupation” raises spectre of “genocide”. Additionally, Pakistan’s Qureshi says that he sees ‘no possibility of a bilateral engagement with India’.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index halted a five-day slide Tuesday as the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell 2bps, its first decline in five days. The only G-10 currency to climb against the dollar was the Swiss franc but moves were limited; meanwhile, the largest losses were seen by the Swedish krona, as the currency weakened by almost 1% to the dollar and the euro after Swedish inflation unexpectedly slowed to its lowest in three years, in more bad news for the Riksbank which is keen to increase interest rates. Finally, the Norwegian krone tumbled alongside its Swedish peer after similarly disappointing inflation reading.

Elsewhere, oil extended gains to the highest level in almost six weeks as Saudi Arabia’s new energy minister signaled his commitment to production cuts ahead of an OPEC+ meeting later this week. Gold headed for its fourth day of declines, sinking to around $1,495 an ounce. Sweden’s krona tumbled after the country’s inflation unexpectedly slowed.

Expected data include NFIB Small Business Optimism. HD Supply and Zscaler are reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,973.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 383.96
  • MXAP down 0.01% to 156.79
  • MXAPJ down 0.2% to 507.06
  • Nikkei up 0.4% to 21,392.10
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,557.99
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.01% to 26,683.68
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.1% to 3,021.20
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 37,145.45
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 6,614.06
  • Kospi up 0.6% to 2,032.08
  • Brent futures up 0.2% to $62.74/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,496.06
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 98.41
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to -0.579%
  • Euro down 0.05% to $1.1043
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 6.6 bps to 0.603%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.5 bps to 0.233%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • After Parliament blocked his Brexit strategy, and then refused to give him the election he wanted, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is promising to work for a deal with the EU. Monday night saw him suffer his sixth consecutive defeat in a vote in the House of Commons, after his attempt to get approval for a snap poll was rejected for a second time
  • The U.K. economy continued to create jobs over the summer and wages jumped, despite the escalating turmoil over Brexit. The jobless rate fell to the lowest since the 1970s but jitters weighing on the wider economy were appearing. Employment growth was weaker than forecast; vacancies slipped to the lowest since 2017
  • Mario Draghi needs to go out with a bang if he’s to renew a surge in bond prices that sent yields to unprecedented lows. Markets have factored in the ECB slashing interest rates and restarting QE, so it will take a multi-faceted stimulus package in his penultimate meeting Thursday to impress investors
  • Germany’s worship of fiscal discipline is being challenged by a looming recession and tantalizingly cheap credit — and a silent revolution is under way at the finance ministry to shed its economic dogma
  • Executives of WeWork and its largest investor, SoftBank, are discussing whether to shelve plans for an initial public offering of the money-losing co-working company, said people with knowledge of the talks
  • China removed one more hurdle for foreign investment into its capital markets almost 20 years after it first allowed access

Asian equity markets traded mixed as they followed suit to the indecisive tone seen on Wall St amid a sell-off in treasuries and as the region also digested ambiguous inflation figures from China. ASX 200 (-0.5%) was negative with gold miners frontrunning the declines in Australia after the precious metal slipped below the psychological key USD 1500/oz level but with further losses in the index stemmed by strength in the energy sector following the recent rally in oil prices, while Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) was kept afloat by favourable currency moves. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (Unch.) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) gave back initial gains despite the liquidity efforts by the PBoC and firmer than expected Chinese inflation data, as the figures were largely influenced by a 10% increase in food prices amid the swine fever epidemic and also showed PPI at its sharpest contraction in 3 years. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower following the bear-steepening seen in US and broad declines across global bonds, while the absence of the BoJ from the market today also added to the lacklustre demand.

Top Asian News

  • North Korea Tests More Weapons After Floating Fresh U.S. Talks
  • Hong Kong Leaders Grow More Frustrated by Leaderless Protesters
  • Hong Kong Dollar Peg Questions Seen Fading One Way or Another
  • Chinese Exporters Cut Currency Hedges in Sign of Yuan Pessimism

European equities are modestly softer [Eurostoxx 50 -0.3%] following on from a mixed Asia-Pac session as participants remain on standby ahead of Thursday’s ECB monetary policy decision. Sectors are mixed with underperformance in the IT sector, whilst energy names outperform as the oil complex holds onto its recent gains and banking names remain supported by yesterday’s surge in yields (RBS +4.4%, UBS +3.4%, Barclays +4.5%). In terms of stocks on the move, EDF (-7.5%) share fell from the open after the Co. noted deviations in technical standards governing the manufacture of nuclear-reactor components. On the flip side, Subsea 7 (+2.7%) shares opened higher after the Co. announced its current COO as the new CEO effective January 1st 2020, additionally the Co. were awarded an offshore contract in Saudi Arabia. Finally, JD Sports (+3%) shares are supported post earnings after H1 sales rose 47% Y/Y and the Co. forecasts FY results to be at the mid-point of their previously guided range.

Top European News

  • EDF Flags Issues in Reactor Parts in Blow to Nuclear Industry
  • Spanish Banks Risk Setback in Fight Over Unfair Mortgage Claims
  • Germany Doesn’t Need to Splurge to Address Slowdown, Scholz Says
  • Sweden Inflation Slows to 3-Year Low in Blow to Riksbank

In FX, the major underperformers in wake of softer than forecast Swedish and Norwegian inflation data that calls into question hawkish guidance from the Riksbank and Norges Bank. Eur/Sek has rebounded from sub-10.7000 levels through 10.7500 and breached several technical resistance points in the process, including 10 and 21 DMAs plus a Fib retracement, while Eur/Nok is back above 9.9000 from almost 9.8500 and also taking on board the latest Norges Bank regional network survey showing that contacts envisage slightly slower growth in the coming 6 months.

  • USD – The Dollar is mixed to marginally firmer awaiting this week’s top-tier US data for more input ahead of the September FOMC after last Friday’s rather inconclusive BLS report and broadly upbeat comments from Fed chair Powell, on balance. However, the DXY remains rangebound between 98.260-463 and well within near term chart support and resistance not to mention recent highs and lows for the index.
  • CHF/NZD/AUD – The Franc has pared some losses vs the Greenback and single currency as risk appetite wanes/falters and selling abates into key technical psychological markers, like 0.9950 in Usd/Chf and 1.1000 in Eur/Chf. Meanwhile, the Aussie and Kiwi have lost some momentum, with Aud/Usd drifting back towards 0.6850 in wake of a downturn in NAB business sentiment and dip in conditions overnight, and Nzd/Usd fading ahead of 0.6450 as Aud/Nzd meanders between 1.0645-85.
  • GBP/CAD/JPY/EUR – Sterling staged another attempt to hunt out stops around 1.2385 vs the Buck and briefly crossed the 100 DMA against the Euro (0.8930), but failed to sustain momentum again amidst the ongoing UK political and Brexit paralysis. However, the ensuing Pound pull-back was arrested by more encouraging data as earnings beat consensus on a headline basis and the jobless rate eased to 3.8% from 3.9%. Note also, 2 bn option expiries in Cable at the 1.2300 strike have provided a buffer. Elsewhere, trade has been considerably more rangebound with the Loonie straddling 1.3175, Yen holding within 107.19-49 parameters and Euro stuck in a 1.1037-59 band awaiting Thursday’s ECB policy pronouncements for more direction.
  • EM – Contrasting fortunes again for the Rand and Lira, as Usd/Zar continues its deep reversal from 15.0000+ towards 14.6900 regardless of more SA ratings warnings from Moody’s, but Usd/Try elevated above 5.7500 in the run up to this week’s CBRT rate verdict and heeding even more dovish calls (-500 bp touted in a Turkish paper) alongside the persistent threat of US sanctions.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures are holding onto most of its recent gains with the two benchmarks around 58.00/bbl and 63/bbl respectively at the time of writing. News-flow for the complex has been light, although reports stated that Russia’s Energy Minister Novak will be meeting with newly appointed Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz in Jeddah later today to discuss the energy market alongside strengthening Saudi-Russia cooperation ahead of Thursday’s JMMC meeting. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s Finance Ministry notes of strong indications of an oil glut next year, and thus lowered its benchmark forecast to 55/bbl from 60/bbl. This evening will also see the release of EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook with focus on global demand growth forecasts. Looking further ahead, participants will also be eyeing the weekly API crude inventory data with markets expecting a headline drawdown of 2.5mln barrels. Elsewhere, gold prices are largely unchanged below the 1500/oz mark amid the undecisive risk tone in the market ahead of this week’s key events. Meanwhile, copper prices have seen a more pronounced downside compared to yesterday with the red-metal flirting with 2.60/lb to the downside at the time of writing. Finally, Dalian iron ore prices advanced as much as 4% amid expectations that China will ratify further economic stimulus that would boost steel demand.

US Event Calendar

  • 6am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 103.5, prior 104.7
  • 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7,331, prior 7,348

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Every year in early September the financial world takes in a new breed of graduates and to you all I say welcome and good luck in your career. If you’d have started as a newbe last Thursday then the whole of your career would have been in a big bond bear market. You’d be excused for wondering if bonds ever actually rally. Indeed yesterday saw another fixed income sell-off, as reports on the German fiscal stance and positive comments on the US-China trade war supported investor sentiment. 10yr Bund yields rose +5.3bps, reaching their highest level in nearly a month at -0.59%, while 30y bunds rose +7.8bps but after spending much of the day in positive territory closed at -0.003%. Nearly but not quite. Lending to the German government out to 2049 will still involve a small haircut. For context the long run return on US equities has been around 9% p.a. over the last couple of hundred years and by my calculations that would mean you would earn 13 times your original investment over an average 30 year period through history. Even at the lower long run return for German equities of c.8% you would earn over 10 times your original investment over the same period. I’m not wildly excited about current equity valuations but this is food for thought for all you new graduates as you invest for your retirement. It’s too late for us but you can save yourselves.

The bond sell-off was global with 10y Treasuries up +7.7bps, BTPs up +6.7bps, and Gilts +8.5bps. Yield curves also steepened, with US 2s10s up +3.2bps to 4.9bps and to its highest level in three weeks. In credit, spreads widened in Europe, with Euro IG spreads +2.0bps and at a 7-week high, while Euro HY spreads were flat. In the US it was a different story as IG and HY spreads tightened further, down -1.3bps and -9bps respectively. Safe havens sold off across the board however, with gold down -0.53%, while the Swis Franc was the worst performing G10 currency, down -0.48% against the dollar, followed by the Japanese Yen (-0.32%).

The sell-off came as Reuters reported that Germany is considering creating a “shadow budget”, which would allow the government to get round the country’s fiscal rules. This would be done by setting up independent bodies, which could take advantage of the country’s low borrowing costs and invest in “infrastructure and climate protection”, but this spending would not count under the debt brake. Meanwhile, the euro strengthened after a letter obtained by Bloomberg News showed Bettina Hagedorn, a deputy finance minister, wrote that the government could change its plans to run balanced budgets if the economic situation required. The reports come ahead of this morning’s debate on the 2020 budget, which will be taking place in the Bundestag. These stories have become more frequent in recent weeks and whilst the market always gets more excited by the headlines than is justified by hard evidence of any change in policy, it’s fair to conclude that market pressure and chatter on this story is building.

Other drivers behind the bond sell-off included data which showed German exports unexpectedly rising by +0.7% (vs. -0.5% expected) in July, while imports fell by -1.5% (vs. -0.3% expected), sending the current account balance for July up to 22.1bn (vs. 16.4bn expected). So good news on exports even if declining imports might be demand led. Meanwhile comments from Secretary Mnuchin further helped things, as he said “we’ve made a lot of progress” in the trade talks, ahead of the planned meeting between China and the US in Washington next month. Ahead of Thursday’s much-anticipated ECB meeting, these positive developments seem to have marginally reduced the implied odds that markets have given to a larger 20bps reduction in the deposit rate, which now stand at 44%, having been at 61% just a week ago.

In equity markets, US stock indices were mixed with relatively high divergence between sectors. The S&P 500 ended just about flat (-0.01%) while the DOW gained +0.14%. Relatively more of the DOW is made up of bank stocks, which performed well (+3.15%) amid the higher yields. Tech lagged, with the NASDAQ down -0.19%. In Europe, the picture was similarly mixed, with the STOXX 600 losing -0.28%. Much of the fall came from UK stocks, with the FTSE 100 -0.72% as it reacted to sterling’s appreciation, but the CAC 40 (-0.27%) also declined, while the DAX and the FTSE MIB only made modest gains. European banks mirrored their American cousins’ positive performance, with the STOXX Banks up +2.72% on rising yields, while energy stocks also saw gains as Brent Crude rose +1.85% to reach a one-month high.

Overnight in Asia, markets are trading mixed with the Nikkei (+0.36%) and Kospi (+0.37%) both up while the Hang Seng (+0.08%) is trading flattish and the Shanghai Comp (-0.36%) is trading down. In Fx, all G10 currencies are slightly weaker against the greenback this morning with the exception of the New Zealand dollar (+0.19%). The onshore Chinese yuan is trading up c. 0.1% at 7.1164. Sovereign bond yields have ticked up in Asia this morning following the global sell-off with 10y JGB yields up +2.9bps at -0.234%. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are trading flattish (-0.06%) while WTI crude oil is up +0.45% after Saudi Arabia’s new energy minister signaled his commitment to production cuts ahead of an OPEC+ meeting on Thursday in Abu Dhabi to discuss their production pact. In terms of overnight data releases, China’s August CPI and PPI both came in one tenth higher than consensus at +2.8% yoy and -0.8% yoy, respectively.

In other news, top North Korean diplomat Choe Son Hui issued a statement this morning that the country would be willing to hold nuclear talks with the US, “at the time and place to be agreed late in September.” However, shortly after the statement North Korea fired two “short-range projectiles” into its eastern seas. Meanwhile, President Trump was a bit cautious in his response over the North Korean statement, citing the regime’s continued freeze on nuclear weapons testing and added, “We’ll see what happens, but I always say having meetings is a good thing, not a bad thing.”

In the UK, MPs rejected the chance of having a mid-October general election for the second time in a week, as the motion failed to reach anything close to the required two-thirds majority once again (239 to 46; PM Johnson needed 434 to call an early election). Opposition parties mostly abstained as they want Mr Johnson to be forced to ask for an extension he has said he will never do. Parliament has now been prorogued, so it won’t sit again until October 14th, which is also the week of the next European Council Summit. The political chatter now points to a late November election but there will be an incredible amount of water flowing under the bridge between now and then. Mr Johnson seems to have pushed his energy into getting a deal now but that is as far away as it ever has been. I wonder whether he may have one go at passing a deal through Parliament before October 31st just to show the electorate that he did everything he could to deliver Brexit by that date and hope the leave vote feels emboldened to vote for him by Parliament’s likely rejection of it.

DB’s Oli Harvey published his latest Brexit update yesterday (link here ), where his base case is that the government fails to secure agreement with the EU27 at the October Council meeting, leaving Johnson with a choice between requesting an extension, resigning as Prime Minister, or ignoring or circumventing the legislation. Looking at his full probabilities, he maintains his view that the cumulative probability of a no-deal Brexit is 50%, be that either at the end of October or after a general election, and places just a 10% chance on Johnson completing his aim of a successful renegotiation and a ratified Withdrawal Agreement by the end of October.

Earlier in the day, sterling rallied as markets approved of the more conciliatory remarks from Prime Minister Johnson, who described a no-deal Brexit as “a failure of statecraft”, and said that “I would overwhelmingly prefer to find an agreement.” The currency strengthened +0.49% against the dollar to its highest level in over a month.

In terms of data yesterday, as well as the aforementioned German export numbers, UK GDP surprised to the upside, with the economy growing by +0.3% mom in July (vs. +0.1% expected). All sectors outperformed, with services +0.3% (vs. +0.1% expected) and manufacturing production +0.3% (vs. -0.3% expected). Looking at the whole 3 months to end-July the UK economy saw a flat 0.0% growth rate over the previous three months.

Meanwhile the Federal Reserve’s consumer credit numbers showed a $23.29 billion expansion in credit, the largest monthly increase since 2017. Revolving credit, which includes mostly credit card debt, drove the increase as it rose by $10 billion, also the highest since 2017. Separately, the NY Fed’s inflation expectations survey showed 1-year expectations falling to their lowest level on record at 2.4%, while 3-year expectations also fell, by 0.1pp to 2.5%.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include France’s July industrial and manufacturing production, along with Italy’s July industrial production. In the UK, the monthly employment report, including the unemployment rate and average weekly wage growth will be released, while from the US, we have the NFIB small business optimism index and the JOLTS job openings release.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.54 POINTS OR 0.12%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 2.28 POINTS OR 0.01%   /The Nikkei closed UP 73.68 POINTS OR 0.35%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .47%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.1054 /Oil UP TO 58.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.08 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED EXCEPT GERMAN DAX//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.1054 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1061 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

A good commentary explaining why the millenials are protesting big time in Hong Kong: the expensive cost of housing

(zerohedge)

Is Hong Kong’s Outrageously Expensive Housing Fueling Civil Unrest?

An important backdrop to the ongoing anti-government / pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong is the widening wealth gap between the city’s billionaire developers, and fed-up citizens trying to carve out an existence amid an outrageous cost of living.

To that end, Bloomberg‘s Shawna Kwan notes: “Widening inequality has long contributed to tension in the city, and nothing exemplifies the divide between the haves and have-nots better than the sky-high cost of residential property.

As Kwan continues, via Bloomberg

 

1. Just how expensive is property?

Hong Kong’s real estate has for years been ranked the world’s least affordable. For example, a one-bedroom unit in Tuen Mun in the New Territories — about an hour away from Central, the main business district, by subway — costs the same as a two-bedroom apartment on New York’s upmarket Upper East Side. Prices have risen by 48% over the past five years. According to Demographia, it takes almost 21 years of an average household’s entire income to purchase a home, compared with 12.6 years in Vancouver and 8.3 years in London. Renting is hardly more palatable. Rates for apartments in the ex-British colony are higher than for similar-sized dwellings in San Francisco, New York City and Zurich.

2. Why’s it so expensive?

At first glance, it’s a simple supply-demand mismatch. Hong Kong crams 7.5 million people into 427 square miles (1,105 square kilometers) — roughly the same size as Los Angeles with its 3.9 million people. What’s more, less than 25% of the territory is developed, with 40% of it country parks or nature reserves. That makes Hong Kong one of the world’s most densely populated regions with 17,311 people per square mile. But there’s more to it than that. The city has long been a popular destination for Chinese property investors, while the constant influx of mainland immigrants has underpinned housing demand. There’s also a view among local owner-occupiers, borne out by the relentless climb of home prices, that real estate is a one-way bet.

3. How reliant is the government on real estate?

Heavily. Being a low-tax economy, land sales comprised 27% of government revenue in 2018, the biggest single source of funding. The proceeds pay for infrastructure, from building bridges and highways to rolling out IT systems. The city’s property tycoons also hold great sway in local politics. Prominent developers including Li Ka-shing and Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd.’s Adam Kwok are among the exclusive 1,200-member election committee that voted for the city’s chief executive, Carrie Lam, in the last election. Then, some 90% of voters from the real estate sector publicly sided with Lam, the Beijing-approved candidate who has been at the center of protesters’ ire.

4. How does this fuel the protests?

While the ultra-wealthy have built their fortunes on property and live in multimillion-dollar, multi-room houses, at the other end of the spectrum are the masses squeezed into apartments barely the size of parking spots. Some people resort to dwelling illegally in industrial buildings or converted shipping containers. Young people despair they’ll never be able to own their own home, hampering their chances of marriage and having a family. Some demonstrators, filled with the sense they have little to lose, are willing to resort to ever more extreme ways to protest at the expense of the economy. A property market crash? Yes, please. Even Lam herself has said the lack of housing for the young is an underlying issue that needs addressing to resolve the crisis.

5. What’s the government doing?

To be fair, Lam’s administration has been more proactive than previous governments in increasing the supply of land for housing. It’s proposed an $80 billion plan to build four artificial islands equal to about a fifth the size of Manhattan that could house more than 1 million people but would take years to complete. Other ideas such as building on golf courses, barren farmland or open-air parking lots have been floated. Lam has also introduced more government-subsidized apartments, though the supply has come nowhere near to matching demand. But none of the measures has made getting on the property ladder any easier for the majority of people.

6. So there’s no short-term fix?

Not really. And with the government’s authority being eroded by the months-long protests, it’s less likely to put forward any controversial policies, such as the artificial islands. Nearly 6,000 people protested after Lam detailed the project in 2018. Adding to the general unhappiness is the theory outlined by some lawmakers that the government avoids taking land from developers and the indigenous communities in the New Territories because it would be too politically damaging. Those groups are traditionally pro-government.

end
This does not bode well. China’s Xi just cannot believe what Trump is saying to him.
(zerohedge)

China’s Xi: “I Can’t Believe What President Trump Says”

With equity futures gradually rolling over overnight, there was the obligatory dose of trade war optimism in this morning’s news flow, with Trump reiterating that China wants to talk, while China was said to be hopeful the US can create conditions for trade talks; this was followed by a CCTV report according to which U.S. delegates said they hope U.S.-China trade talks can achieve progress and reach a deal as soon as possible, while China’s premier Li was quoted as saying that China and US should find solutions to disputes based on consensus reached by leaders of the two nations, adding that “China treats domestic, foreign companies fairly” and “puts more focus on intellectual property protection”, noting that “companies including U.S. firms are welcome to increase investment in China.”

This was more than enough to stabilize the drop in futures. But a bigger problem may be emerging behind the scenes, as the true feelings of China’s president toward president Trump have finally emerged on the record.

According to Kyodo, President Xi Jinping voiced distrust of U.S. President Donald Trump during his meeting with the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in June amid the U.S.-China trade dispute, a source close to the matter said Tuesday.

“I can’t believe what President Trump says” concerning trade negotiations, Xi told Abe during a meeting on the fringe of the Group of 20 summit in Osaka. And while Abe told Xi that Trump trusts the Chinese president, Xi continued to air his grievances about his U.S. counterpart, the diplomatic source told Kyodo News.

The reason for Xi’s distrust: despite agreeing to Xi’s proposal on the phone to deal with Chinese telecommunication giant Huawei Technologies during the next working-level negotiations, “once the negotiations began, the U.S. side said that Huawei is not a trade issue but a security issue and did not deal with it,” Xi told Abe, pointing out that Trump’s remarks proved unreliable.

According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Xi had a telephone conference with Trump on June 18, during which he expressed China’s hope that “the U.S. side can treat Chinese firms in a fair manner.”

Xi further complained to Abe that while the Trump administration has repeatedly criticized Beijing for supporting state-owned companies with subsidies, “the U.S. is also providing Boeing with subsidies,” referring to the Chicago-based U.S. airplane manufacturer.

Last week, the United States slapped China with the first stage of a new round of tariffs that will see nearly all Chinese imports taxed. China retaliated on the same day with its own round of tariffs on U.S. goods and announced the following day its decision to lodge a case at the World Trade Organization over the latest U.S imposition of import duties on Chinese exports to the United States.

While the United States and China are planning to hold ministerial- level trade talks in October in Washington, it is uncertain whether there will be any breakthrough, especially with neither side trusting anything the other says.

Eager to claim a major trade victory to boost his 2020 re-election bid, Trump is likely to strengthen his hardline attitude toward China, according to Kyodo. But with no mutual trust between the two leaders, a major concession by Xi seems unlikely, making a prolonged conflict between the United States and China almost inevitable.

Meanwhile, relations between Japan and China have been improving recently, with the two sides preparing for Xi’s first state visit to Japan planned for next spring.

end

Kyle Bass believes that Jack Ma, chairman of Alibaba will be either jailed or disappeared within one year as Xi does not like Ma’s strength in the financial community. If this were to come to pass, then that would end the Shanghai stock market ec.

(Kyle Bass/zerohedge)

Ma, No More: Kyle Bass Fears Alibaba Boss Will Be “Jailed, Disappeared” Within Next Year

One year after announcing his intention to step down as chairman of the Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, founder Jack Ma finally stepped down on Tuesday, clearing the way for his anointed successor, CEO Daniel Zhang, to take his place. The FT heralded Ma’s retirement – which took place on Alibaba’s 20th birthday – as the first transition at the top of a Chinese tech behemoth, making it a major milestone for the Chinese tech industry.

Ma, 55, is China’s richest man. He famously built Alibaba up from a company founded in his shared apartment into a behemoth worth $462 billion.

A former schoolteacher, Ma is also recognized for his embrace of Chinese nationalism. Last year, he revealed that he is a member of the Chinese Communist Party, and his regular appearances at Davos have helped to cement his status as one of China’s preeminent business leaders.

But not everybody is so rosy about Ma’s retirement.

In a tweet sent earlier this morning, hedge fund manager Kyle Bass, a prominent China critic, speculated that Ma isn’t actually retiring – rather, his carefully choreographed decision to step down is the result of being “forcibly removed from his position, stripped of his shareholdings (transferred to “five unnamed individuals” with the same address), and will likely be jailed or ‘disappeared’ within the next year.”

Kyle Bass

@Jkylebass

Clockwork-Jack Ma was forcibly removed from his position, stripped of his shareholdings (transferred to”five unnamed individuals”with the same address),and will likely be jailed or”disappeared”within the next year.This is how xi and wang treat any chinese that become too powerful https://twitter.com/pdchina/status/1171411752996810752 

It’s unclear where Bass got this information. But the hedge fund manager insisted that “this is how Xi and wang [Qishan, vice president of the CCP] treat any Chinese that become too powerful.”

Jack Ma

If what Bass says is true,it could create serious problems for Chinese markets,as the international investors that Beijing is hoping to court (most recently by raising the limits on foreign investment in its stock and bond markets) would undoubtedly interpret it as a sign of President Xi’s hostility to China’s business community.

Moreover, it would further bolster the perception that the world’s second-largest economy lacks the rule of law.

Thanks to his regular appearances at Davos and myriad other appearances in Western media (Ma recently sparred with Elon Musk about the future of AI), Ma’s disappearance would be impossible to ignore. And because of his still-substantial holdings of Alibaba stock, Ma is expected to continue guiding the company from behind the scenes, something that will help bolster investor confidence in a company that, when it went public in New York a few years back, marked one of the largest IPOs of all time as the company raised roughly $25 billion.

Courtesy of Statista

So far, Alibaba investors have been unfazed by Ma’s decision to retire. The company’s shares have gained 9.4% this year. The succession has been tediously planned, and Alibaba and Ma often talk about the company’s deep bench of talent. Ma is leaving his successor some lofty targets: By 2036, Ma hopes the Alibaba “economy” can create 100 million jobs, support 10 million profitable businesses and serve 2 billion customers around the world – up from around 654 million today. The company is also targeting $1 trillion in gross merchandise value (the aggregate value of all goods sold on its platform) this year, up from $853 billion last year.

In his public remarks, Ma has remained committed to the Communist Party line, touting Beijing’s resilience and unwillingness to cave to the US, even if the trade war drags on for decades.

But Beijing has a unenviable track record of exiling or jailing billionaires, often over murky charges of corruption or tax evasion.

If Bass’s accusations prove correct, Ma would be the most high-profile figure to date to meet this fate. For Alibaba shareholders’ sake, let’s hope he is wrong. But given Xi’s totalitarian bent, it would hardly be a surprise if Ma met a similar fate.

end

China removes the 300 billion dollar Foreign Investment Limits for stock and bond markets..but nobody cares as already it was only 1/3 used

(zerohedge)

China Scraps Foreign Investment Limits For Stock, Bond Markets… But Does Anyone Care

China continues to try to take steps to open its markets – if not so much the yuan which has to remain firmly behind the Chinese firewall to avoid an FX-driven capital flight panic – to the rest of the world, or rather, to US-based buyers of Chinese stocks and bonds.

To that end, overnight Beijing eliminated a rule that previously required approvals to purchase quotas to buy Chinese stocks and bonds. The change was announced in a statement by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported.

China’s SAFE removed the $300 billion overall cap on overseas purchases of the assets in the latest push by Chinese authorities to increase the use of the yuan in international transactions, if not to further internationalize the yuan whose “fair value” remains strictly the purview of the PBOC. As Bloomberg notes, about two thirds of the cap had remained unused at the time. The move also comes at a critical time, just as China seeks foreign capital to reverse its soon-to-be-negative balance of payments.

Yet while China can claim it is doing everything in its power to open up its markets to foreign investors, some ask if this is just another purely optical move since only about $111 billion of the current $300 billion quota was being met. It is therefore unclear whether the rule change will attract any new capital to the country’s $13 trillion bond and $6.9 trillion stock markets. Furthermore, there already exist “alternate” routes for investing in China, such as trading links with Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing, which allow offshore investors to trade stocks and bonds in China via the former British colony.

Ding Shuang, chief China and North Asia economist at Standard Chartered Bank said: “The move is more symbolic and won’t trigger significant capital inflows. But it’s a good gesture for the officials to make, as the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China’s founding is approaching and there’s a lack of positive development in the trade talks with the U.S.”

In total, according to the PBOC foreign investors held 2 trillion yuan in Chinese bonds and 1.6 trillion yuan of stocks onshore at the end of the June.

China started trying to grant overseas investors ease of access to its markets in 2000, when it was trying to negotiate entry into the World Trade Organization. It has continued since President Donald Trump has called the country a ” one-sided beneficiary of global commerce.”

Beijing first eased rules last year, removing lock in periods and allowing investors who had used the quote to repatriate their money at any time. Previously, there had been controls on how much investors were allowed to take out of the country at once. The country has also allowed foreign banks and insurers to take controlled stakes in some local ventures. For instance UBS Group, JPMorgan and Nomura Holdings all won approval for majority control of their local securities joint ventures.

The changes to the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) and Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (RQFII) programs means that foreigners only need to register before investing in Chinese securities.

SAFE believes the move will “make China’s bond and equity markets better and more widely accepted by international markets.”

As Gerry Alfonso, director at Shenwan Hongyuan Group concluded: “It is a gesture, trying to reduce red tape and reinforcing the message that they are continuing to open the Chinese capital markets. It probably does not have a massive short term impact on stocks, but overall it is a good development.”

end
China vows to crush all pro democracy protesters in Hong Kong.  They also warn the USA and other foreign nations against any influence in Hong Kong
(zerohedge)

China Vows To ‘Crush’ Pro-Democracy Separatists; Hong Kong Warns Against Foreign Influence

Beijing warned on Monday that Hong Kong is an inseparable part of China and any form of secessionism “will be crushed,” after pro-democracy demonstrators begged US President Trump to intervene in the ongoing anti-government movement now in its 14th week.

According to the China Daily newspaper, Sunday’s pro-democracy rally proves that foreigners have been behind the protests, and warned that participants should “stop trying the patience of the central government,” reports Reuters.

Chinese officials have accused foreign forces of trying to hurt Beijing by creating chaos in Hong Kong over a hugely unpopular extradition bill that would have allowed suspects to be tried in Communist Party-controlled courts.

Anger over the bill grew into sometimes violent protests calling for more freedoms for Hong Kong, which returned to Chinese rule in 1997 under a “one country, two systems” formula. –Reuters

Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam, meanwhile, warned the United States and other countries that it was “totally unacceptable” for the United States or anyone else to intervene in the situation.

“The Hong Kong government completely disagrees and expresses deep regret that foreign parliaments are interfering in our internal affairs through legislation,” Lam said during her weekly news conference, adding “We will never allow them to be stakeholders in Hong Kong’s internal affairs.”

Protesters on Sunday expressed support for the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019 introduced by US Rep. Christopher Smith (R-NJ) in June. The bill calls on the US government to protect the rights of Hong Kong protesters, including an assessment of whether “sensitive dual-use items subject to the export control laws of the United States are being used to develop the “social credit” system of China.”

“Democrats and Republicans continue to stand united with the people of Hong Kong in demanding the hopeful, free and democratic future that is their right,” said US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi last week in a show of bipartisan support for Smith’s bill.

According to Lam, approximately 1,400 Kong Kong companies benefit from Washington’s relationship with the city and that “any particular provisions applied to Hong Kong by the Americans are not exclusively for the benefit of Hong Kong,” according to CNN. The passage of the US bill would undoubtedly harm the city’s economy, which has already taken a hit due to the protests.

On Tuesday, she called for the public to stop resorting to violence, saying “Escalation and continuation of violence cannot solve the issues faced by our society now. It will only deepen the conflict, contradiction, splits, and even hatred in society.”

“To mend the society and to bring back peace, we are very willing to engage people directly in a dialogue.”

The Hong Kong protests began with opposition to a controversial extradition bill which would allow suspects to be taken to mainland China for trial in PRC-controlled courts. It has since evolved into a general anti-government / pro-democracy movement which shows no signs of abating.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

As expected the UK parliament votes down an early election mainly because most of the remainers will lose their seat.

I think that BoJO knows what he is doing.  Follow Mish Shedlock’s view of how this thing will proceed

(zerohedge)

 

UK Parliament Rejects PM Johnson’s Early Election Request; Now What?

After an hour of to- and fro-ing, jeering and yelling, guffawing and gaslighting, the UK parliament has finally voted on PM Johnson’s request for an early election on October 15th.

BoJo reiterated that he’s prepared to leave the European Union without an agreement if necessary, and that he “will not ask for another delay,” enraging opposition lawmakers, who complain he’s refusing to acknowledge the legislation that passed into law earlier blocking a no-deal Brexit on Oct. 31.

Johnson lambasted the Labour Party for “preposterous cowardice” for not voting for the early election.

Opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn responded to Johnson’s statement by accusing the prime minister of pursuing a no-deal Brexit with no mandate to do so, and calling the government’s negotiations with the European Union a “sham.”

And Liberal Democrats leader Jo Swinson said her party would revoke Article 50 – keeping the U.K. in the European Union – if it was elected to government.

It was raucous to say the least.

Caroline Lucas

@CarolineLucas

This is parliament at its sickening worst

From Tory benches, the braying & bullying, the shouting & jeering is just disgusting

This isn’t a game – it’s about real people’s real lives, about the rule of law & about democracy

But, after all the bluster, as expected, MPs voted against the early election. He needed two-thirds of MPs – 434 of them – to vote for this but only 293 agreed (notably less that last week when he got 298), with 46 voting against and the rest abstaining.

“I earlier urged the house to trust the people but once again, the opposition think they know better,”exclaimed Boris Johnson, after his second attempt to trigger an early general election has failed.

“They want the British prime minister to go to a vital negotiation without the power to walk away.”

“…They want to delay Brexit yet again, without further reference to those who voted for it…

And so now the house will move to adjourn and resume the state opening and the Queen’s speech on October 14, and I hope the opposition will use that time to reflect. Meanwhile, this government will press on with negotiating a deal.”

There is no reaction in cable to this news.

And so, what happens next?

Quite frankly, no one knows but the following flowchart from Statista is the clearest illustration of what is to come we have found so far…

Parliament will now be suspended.

END

Bill Blain explains what is worrying him today

(Bill Blain)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Israel/Hamas/GAZA

Hamas initiates as series of rocket attacks on Israel. You can be sure that Israel will strike at Gaza later tonight

(zerohedge)

Netanyahu Rushed Off Campaign Stage In Southern Israel As Hamas Rockets Rain Down

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was at a campaign event in the southern Israeli city of Ashdod Tuesday when Hamas rockets were fired on the city.

Early reports said at least 5 Hamas rockets triggered inbound warning sirens in Ashkelon and Ashdod just as the prime minister was on a campaign tour through the region.

 

Image via The Times of Israel

There are reports that at least two interceptions were made by the Iron Dome anti-air defense system.

 

Former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman was also reported to be in the south at the time of the attack, which was possibly timed as both campaigned ahead of a key September 17 election to form a new government.

At the time of the rocket attack, dramatic video captured Netanyahu being rushed out of a building in Ashdod by his security staff.

Anna Ahronheim

@AAhronheim

says two rockets were fired towards the cities of Ashkelon and Ashdod, both were intercepted by the Iron Dome. Here’s a video of Netanyahu being evacuated during the rocket sirens.

Embedded video

It’s expected that Israel’s Air Force will retaliate on Gaza significantly tonight, with reports that Hamas has already evacuated their posts in anticipation.

developing..

end

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1034 DOWN .0013 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED EXCEPT GERMANY

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.38 UP 0.032 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2341   DOWN   0.0004  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3177 UP .0007 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 13 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1034 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 3.54 POINTS OR 0.12% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 2.28 POINTS OR 0.01%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,47%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED EXCEPT GERMANY

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED EXCEPT GERMAN DAX

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 2.28 POINTS OR 0.01%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.54 POINTS OR 0.12%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 47% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 73.68  POINTS OR 0.35%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1494.55

silver:$17.97-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.64% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.11 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 98/43 DOWN 15 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.28% UP 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.22%  UP 3   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.26%//UP 4 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,02 UP 7 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 76 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.31% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.57% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.046  DOWN     .0006 or 6 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.38 UP .040 OR YEN DOWN 4  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2355 UP .0009 POUND UP 9  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 31 basis points to 1.3139

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.1127    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.1097  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7792 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.22%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.68 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.16 UP 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.31 UP 3  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 32.14  0.44%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 42.61 POINTS OR .35%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 4.24 POINTS 0.08%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 67.60 POINTS or 0.75%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 120.72 POINTS OR 0.55%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 58.31 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 63.52 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    65.33  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.21 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUB-  HIGHER BY 21 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.55 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  57.45//

 

 

BRENT :  62.47

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.72…  a gain of 7 basis pts

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.20.. a gain of 7 basis pts.

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.10393 ( DOWN 8   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.50 UP .159 (YEN DOWN 16 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.38 UP 10 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2344 DOWN 1  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7686

 

 

the Russian rouble 65.46   UP 0.08 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 8 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3149 UP 21 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.1127  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.1116 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.55%

 

The Dow closed UP 73.45 POINTS OR 0.27%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 3.28 POINTS OR 0.04%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.53 CLOSED DOWN .44

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.138%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Momentum stalls all around the globe ad it causes the quants to melt: and it this that caused bond yields to skyrocket  (bond prices to collapse)

 

Quant Quake Goes Global Amid Momo Meltdown, Bond Bloodbath

Momo traders be like…

The ‘Quant Quake’ has spread across the world…

Michael Krause@michaelbkrause

The global quant reshuffle continues… Catchup moves in Asia and continuation in Europe/US. c/o Morgan Stanley

View image on Twitter

And showed no signs of stopping in today’s trading session…

Source: Bloomberg

In fact the momentum factor has now crashed into the red for the year (after being up over 13% last week)…

Source: Bloomberg

It seems like the momentum factor reached a serious level of resistance once again…

Source: Bloomberg

This is now the biggest collapse in the momentum factor since the dot-com era and the financial crisis quant crash…

Source: Bloomberg

How long before this weighs more directly in the broad index?

Source: Bloomberg

And as momo collapses, Treasury yields are soaring as CTAs are forced to dump bonds...

Source: Bloomberg

And may mean that bonds have a long way to fall before this is over…

Source: Bloomberg

The impact of this factor unwind has sent cyclicals higher and defensives lower as Bob Pisani exclaimed “I think this is a good thing.” Except it appears ol’ Bob doesn’t see the driver of this shift as problematic at all…

Source: Bloomberg

On the day, Trannies and Small Caps surged (see short-squeeze below) as Nasdaq tumbled, only to be panic-bid back to unchanged on the day.

NOTE – stocks melted up in the last few minutes as bond yields really spiked into the close.

Most-Shorted Stocks have soared this week too…(NOTE – this is the biggest 5-day short-squeeze since the start of the year)

Source: Bloomberg

Energy stocks were best today, despite oil prices plunging…

Source: Bloomberg

Bank stocks continue to outperform the broad market (as the beneficiaries of the factor unwind) and track the yioeld curve steeper…

Source: Bloomberg

It’s been a bond bloodbath the last 5 days…with the entire curve shifting higher by 22-25bps (and really getting hammered into the close today…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields are up 5 days in a row – up a stunning 24bps – the biggest jump since Trump’s election in Nov 2016…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields are at a key resistance level…hitting 2.20% today

Source: Bloomberg

The late-day carnage in bonds was focused more on the short-en, sparking a bear flattener…

Source: Bloomberg

Are rates set to soar even further given the positive surprise macro data?

Source: Bloomberg

WeWork bonds crashed today, erasing the post-IPO filing gains and falling back below par…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar trod water for the 2nd day in a row (hovering around the lows of Trump’s tariff tantrum)…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos continued to slide lower today…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Silver was best, managing to end unchanged as oil and gold underperformed…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold continues to trade in sync with global negative yield aggregate volume…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Meanwhile, the firing of neocon NSA John Bolton took war premium out of crude very suddenly (and tumbled into NYMEX close)…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Finally, while policy uncertainty has hit record highs, equity market uncertainty remains delusionally low…

Source: Bloomberg

But the yield knows better what is to come…

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Stocks Surge On Reports China To “Sweeten” Trade Deal By Buying More US Ag Products

Stocks turned higher just before noon on Tuesday after the South China Morning Post published a story claiming that China is expected to agree to buy more products from American farmers in hopes of sweetening the deal and increasing the chances of an accord when the two trade delegations meet next month.

US stocks turned flat on the day, erasing earlier losses on the report, which is the latest example of optimistic trade talk coming out of Beijing.

Citing “a source familiar with the situation,” the SCMP reported that working-level officials were discussing the text of a deal, which would be form the baseline of a tentative agreement when Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He meets US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in Washington in October.

The text is based on a draft that the two sides negotiated back in April, the anonymous sources said.

China is reportedly preparing to offer to buy more ag products in exchange for the US delaying a series of US tariffs, as well as easing the supply ban on Chinese telecoms giant Huawei.

In addition, the source said China could improve market access, offer better IP protections and reduce excess industrial capacity. On the other hand, the source said Beijing is still reluctant to compromise on subsidies, industrial policy and reforming state-owned enterprises.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told a group of US business representatives on Tuesday that Beijing is insistent on a “mutually acceptable solution” to the trade dispute. He added that China would welcome FDI by US companies.

Trade talks collapsed initially in early May as Washington insisted that Beijing had reneged on its word, prompting Washington to walk away from a deal that it said was 90% completed.

END

ii)Market data/USA

Another indicator that the uSA economy is faltering: job openings decline big time. Hires rise but also quits surge

(JOLTS/zerohedge)

Job Openings Drop To 5 Month Low Even As Hires, Quits Surge

Just in case the last few disappointing payrolls reports weren’t sufficient to warn the general public that the US economy is slowing, moments ago we got the latest JOLTS which confirmed that the US labor market is going through a rough patch, as the total number of job openings dropped again, sliding to 7.217 million, below the 7.331 million expected, and not only below the downward revised June print of 7.248 million, but was the lowest since February.

 

That said, even with the slowing number of job openings, there was still more than 1.2 million more job opening than unemployed workers; in fact there have now been more US job openings than unemployed workers for a record 17 consecutive months.

 

It wasn’t all bad news though: after last month’s sharp drop in the rate of hiring, total hires surged by 237K to 5.953 million, just shy of the record set in April with 5.991 million, and now modestly above where the payrolls implied number suggests:

 

The spike in hiring meant that from an annual contraction, hiring once again rebounded into the green, rising by 2.1% in July, up from a -2.0% drop in June.

 

Finally, in another bullish reversal, we saw the so-called “take this job and shove it” indicator – the total level of “quits” which shows worker confidence that they can leave their current job and find a better paying job elsewhere – reverse from last month’s disappointing drop, and in July, the number of quits surged by 130K from a 2019 low of 3.462MM to 3.592MM, just shy of the record set last August with 3.648MM.

Overall, a decidedly better JOLTS report than one would expect in light of last week’s poor payrolls number. Then again, recall that JOLTS is 2 months delayed, so we wouldn’t be surprised if next month’s JOLTs is where the real ugliness lies.

end
As promised to you, the fiscal deficit for this year ending this month will be in excess of 1 trillion dollars.  However if you add in the off balance sheet auto loans and student loans, you get your 1.2 trillion true deficit
(courtesy Market Watch)

CBO says fiscal year deficit running over $1 trillion

Sept 10, 2019 5:52 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the current fiscal year deficit by the federal government has exceeded the $1 trillion level.

In its budget review published Monday afternoon, the CBO said the deficit for the first 11 months of the fiscal year was $1.07 trillion, up $168 billion from last year.

Outlays have climbed by 7%, on rises in both the number and amount of Social Security and Medicare claims, which both rose 6%. Medicaid outlays rose 5%.

Interest payments on the national debt rose 14%, and defense spending climbed 8%.

While spending increased, revenue rose more slowly, up just 3%. Individual income taxes rose a slender 1% and corporate income taxes increased by 5%.

The CBO’s annual deficit projection is $960 million, because September is typically a month where the federal government receives more in taxes than it pays out for spending. That would nonetheless be a seven-year high.

The U.S. Treasury will publish its estimates on Thursday, and typically the CBO forecast is very close to those numbers.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

My goodness is Illinois bust!! They just recorded a huge 47 billion dollar loss due to understatement of pension liability

(zerohedge/Mark Glennon )

Illinois’ Record $47 Billion Loss Ignored By Mainstream Media. Why?

Authored by Mark Glennon via WirePoints.org,

The State of Illinois recently reported its biggest annual financial loss ever. Instead of clear reporting on that, we’ve seen perhaps the most glaring example yet of how the state’s finances can be misunderstood, misreported and intentionally distorted.

The loss of $47 billion for the state’s 2018 fiscal year, shown in audited financial statements released late last month, is an astonishing number. For some perspective, that’s about $7 billion more than the entire, current annual budget.

But most of the regular press downplayed or entirely ignored the loss. Many even saw good news. A Reuters headline, for example, read “Illinois budget deficit shrank to $7.8 billion in FY 2018.” You can find similar headlines from across the state.

Why would media coverage differ so drastically from what the audited financial statements really said? Which is right?

Two factors account for the difference, and both should be understood. This is a lesson in how misunderstanding of our financial crisis is created and propagated.

  • First, the loss was shrugged off because it stemmed mostly from an accounting change, which we will explain below. But that’s only a partial excuse. In truth, the accounting change exposed a huge liability that has been all but ignored in the past.
  • Second, most media reports seem to have blindly repeated a very misleading press release by the Illinois Comptroller that accompanied the financials.

Some background before we elaborate: The new financial statements are in the state’s recently released, long overdue CAFR — the Comprehensive Annual Financial Report for the fiscal year that ended in June 2018. The $47 billion loss is shown in the statements as a drop in “net position,” which is the government’s rough equivalent of net worth that you commonly see in the private sector. Changes in it are comparable to net income. As the CAFR itself says, “Over time, increases and decreases in net position measure whether the State’s financial position is improving or deteriorating.”

The big loss was overwhelmingly due to an accounting change that had a $42 billion impact. That change was for healthcare costs owed in the future to state retirees, called OPEBs (other post-employment benefits). In Illinois, those benefits are constitutionally protected just like pensions. Unlike pensions, however, they are entirely unfunded. New accounting rules now taking effect require full disclosure of that liability, which the CAFR says totals $55 billion.

But should we dismiss the massive loss as a bookkeeping quirk? Hardly.

While the $42 billion loss didn’t occur in one year, it’s a growing monster that has been hidden  for many years, unknown to most reporters and the public. Including it now as part of the state’s financial report card is an admission about how deficient previous reporting has been. The Governmental Accounting Standards Board couldn’t keep a straight face any longer as it watched governments like Illinois hide OPEB obligations, so it issued a new standard requiring better disclosure, which is now fully in effect.

The simple is fact is that the state’s true condition is indeed a full $47 billion worse than most Illinoisans were told a year ago.That’s because the regular media, like the accountants, have long ignored OPEB liabilities. If you know about them it’s probably only because you read about them here or in other alternate sources, or have expertise in the area.

The chart below shows the full story properly over time. Since 2002 the state has lost $178 billion. The big jump down in 2015 was also due to an accounting change. There have been other, smaller ones. However, had the proper accounting rules been in place from the start, the line would still end in the same place. Its downward slope would only have been less jagged.

The second reason why the 2018 loss wasn’t reported properly was misleading spin put on by Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza when she released the CAFR. Her press release starts as follows:

ILLINOIS CUT ITS DEFICIT IN HALF IN FISCAL YEAR 2018, ANNUAL CAFR SHOWS

The Comprehensive Annual Financial Report (CAFR) released today shows Illinois cut its general funds deficit by $6.849 billion — from a deficit of $14.612 billion in fiscal year 2017 to a deficit of $7.763 billion in fiscal year 2018. That is largely because of a refinancing of state debt from high-interest to low-interest repayment. 

Many news stories repeated that or something like it with happy headlines like “Annual report: Illinois cuts deficit in half in fiscal year 2018.” Most of those stories buried the huge loss and the OPEB issue or didn’t mention them at all  A notable exception was The Bond Buyer, with a more appropriate headline, “Illinois CAFR arrives, late and covered in red ink.”

Comptroller Susana Mendoza

In truth, Mendoza cherry-picked an extremely unrepresentative element of the CAFR. Note that she referred only to the “general funds” to claim the deficit reduction. The general funds are only part of the picture, and they effectively count borrowed money as if it is income!

It’s like claiming you cut your losses in half by putting that half on a credit card. During the year, Illinois sold bonds to pay down $6.5 billion of its huge backlog of unpaid bills. Refinancing from one debt to another in that manner has little genuine impact, aside from some interesting savings that, for 2018, would be a tiny portion of the supposed deficit reduction.

This is a common trick politicians use. I checked in with Sheila Weinberg, CEO of Truth in Accounting, about the Illinois CAFR issue. She repeated what she has long taught: “General fund accounting is incomplete and misleading, for many reasons including the fact that bond proceeds are accounted for as income.” (For those interested in the details, see the page from the CAFR reproduced below listing all the items ignored in the Governmental Funds, which include the general fund, which is why it is so misleading.)

Mendoza certainly had a different lens on CAFR numbers two years ago when we had a governor she didn’t like, Bruce Rauner. Her press release for the 2016 CAFR started as follows, focusing on the entire net position instead of just general funds:

With no relief in sight, Illinois’ finances deteriorated at an alarming rate in fiscal year 2016 as net deficit totals spiked to a staggering $126.7 billion…. The State’s [CAFR] paints a worsening outlook for the State’s financial future on this unsustainable path. Mendoza said the CAFR findings reflect a lawless fiscal climate.

Well, that “staggering” negative $126.7 billion is now negative $184 billion. It had worsened by $5.8 billion under that “lawless fiscal climate,” which is about the same as last year if you ignore the OPEB loss. No moral outrage now from Mendoza, however.

I called Abdon Pallasch, Mendoza’s press director, to comment on why I thought her most recent press release is so misleading. “It’s all in the CAFR” that was published, he said, adding that they selected the parts they did, focused on the general fund, and that those wishing to write about other aspects can look at the other sections.

Yes, literally read, Mendoza’s press release is correct. I say it’s also grossly misleading.

Keep in mind that the 2018 fiscal year was an unusually good year in the markets, which temporarily reduced the state’s deficit. Stocks returned some 14% that year, about twice what the state pensions assume they will return per year. That allowed the pensions to actually improve a bit – the net unfunded pension liability shrank by $4 billion to $134 billion. Had they deteriorated as rapidly as they typically do, the overall report would have been far worse.

Finally, if you’ve been wondering how much the recent state income tax hikes would solve, you now have the answer. Those increases took effect at the start of the fiscal year covered by the new CAFR. They obviously didn’t materially change the state’s direction downward, even if you ignore the OPEB issue.

Page 39 from CAFR, listing matters not recorded in Governmental Funds that do impact change in net position:

end
This is going to be an accident waiting to happen.  The newest darling stock, We Work, which has huge valuation and yet not worth a penny just saw its bonds tumble below a critical level
(zerohedge)

WeWork Bonds Tumble Below Critical Level

Things just went from bad to worse for WeWork (and Softbank) as the over-levered office-rental company sees its debt pummeled back below a critical level as its IPO flails.

WeWork’s 2025 Bonds have plunged back below par for the first time since filing for its IPO – which Softbank is now reportedly urging them to pull

Source: Bloomberg

This could be a problem going forward as Bloomberg reports that while WeWork is aiming for investment-grade status eventually, the office-rental company plans to rely on junk bonds for funding for the foreseeable future, a WeWork executive said in a meeting with analysts.

And that cost of funding just soared, now trading back at almost 700bps over Treasuries…

Source: Bloomberg

WeWork has lined up a $6 billion credit line that is contingent on it raising at least $3 billion in its IPO, according to the offering prospectus by its parent, the We Co.

“Its rapidly growing footprint burns cash, so traditional credit metrics will view the company poorly,” said Arnold Kakuda, a senior credit analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence.

“WeWork would need to exhibit stable profits, before it can be seriously considered to be an investment-grade company.”

As Bloomberg recently noted, “anyone weighing whether to buy shares in WeWork’s IPO cannot ignore the fact that the company will have to find $47 billion from somewhere in coming years to meet its contractual obligations – including about $10 billion in just the next five years. Right now, its own very negative cash flows won’t cut it.”

iv) Swamp commentaries)

This has to be a big joke:  The Dems are now probing whether Trump and Guiliani pressured the Ukraine to hurt the Biden campaign even though the Bidens stole billions from the Ukraine

(zerohedge)

House Dems Probe Whether Trump, Giuliani Pressured Ukraine To Hurt Biden’s Campaign

Not the Onion, but astounding and absurd in its shameless bombasity nonetheless: House Democrats have launched an investigation into Biden’s glaring obstruction of a legal probe in Ukraine Trump and his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani for alleged interference in Ukraine’s government.

Democrats are charging the Trump administration with pursuing “politically-motivated investigations” in Ukraine under the guise of “anti-corruption activity” in order to target and smear former Vice President Joe Biden. They allege the White House is using its influence to target Trump’s likely key Democrat presidential challenger for 2020.

On Monday The Hill reportedthat three House committees “sent joint letters to White House and State Department demanding documents related to whether Trump and Giuliani sought to pressure Ukraine to target Biden, a 2020 Democratic White House hopeful.”

 

Getty Images

Giuliani has long pursued the very obvious question (that we ourselves and many others have asked) as to why neither Kiev authorities nor the media have investigated then Vice President Biden’s successful attempt in 2016 to get the country’s top prosecutor removed at a crucial moment during an ongoing investigation into Burisma Holdings — the Ukrainian natural gas company advised at the time by Biden’s son Hunter.

A joint statement issued Monday from the chairmen of the House Intelligence, Oversight and Reform, and Foreign Affairs said as follows:

“A growing public record indicates that, for nearly two years, the President and his personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani, appear to have acted outside legitimate law enforcement and diplomatic channels to coerce the Ukrainian government into pursuing two politically-motivated investigations under the guise of anti-corruption activity.”

“As the 2020 election draws closer, President Trump and his personal attorney appear to have increased pressure on the Ukrainian government and its justice system in service of President Trump’s reelection campaign, and the White House and the State Department may be abetting this scheme,” they continued.

Leading the charge is Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Oversight Chairman Elijah Cummings (D-Md.) and Foreign Affairs Chairman Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.), who have demanded all documents related to their probe no later than September 16.

As the The New York Timesreported previously, during the final year of the Obama presidency, VP Biden “threatened to withhold $1 billion in United States loan guarantees if Ukraine’s leaders did not dismiss the country’s top prosecutor” — Viktor Shokin — “who had been accused of turning a blind eye to corruption in his own office and among the political elite.”

Crucially last month Giuliani was reported to have again raised the issue with Ukrainian officials  which he recently indicated he had done in the capacity of a private citizen in order to help the country deal with corruption, according to his account in an interview.

From the start the mainstream media has largely ignored the Biden scandal, opting instead to attack the messengers — even after his own very public admissions of his prior quid pro quo personal interventions in Ukraine under Obama.

For example, Biden has in the past positively bragged about many of the very things at the heart of the Burisma Holdings scandal:

zerohedge@zerohedge

“Son Of A Bitch Got Fired!” Joe Biden Brags He Forced Ukraine To Fire Key Official In Exchange For Money https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-24/son-bitch-got-fired-joe-biden-brags-he-forced-ukraine-fire-key-official-exchange 

“Son Of A Bitch Got Fired!”: Joe Biden Brags He Forced Ukraine To Fire Key Official In Exchange For…

“I looked at them (Poroshenko & Yatsenyuk) and said: ‘I’m leaving in 6 hours. If the prosecutor is not fired, you’re not getting the money…'” – Joe Biden

zerohedge.com

 

CNN cynically asserted it in its latest report, “the former New York mayor is making a renewed push for the country to investigate Trump’s political enemies.”

It appears House Dems are taking up where CNN left off by initiating its formal probe, all the while continuing to ignore the much more glaring original scandal.

END
Another big joke  the FBI was given huge evidence of a Clinton linked Libyra scheme, They ignored that and instead launched the phony Trump Russia mess
(zerohedge)

FBI Given Evidence Of Clinton-Linked Libya Scheme; Instead Launched Trump-Russia Quagmire

Recently made public FBI records reveal that the agency virtually ignored evidence from private GOP-backed sources about a scheme in which Hillary Clinton associates tried to exploit her position as Secretary of State in order to profit from the 2011 turmoil in Libya she helped to create, according to RealClearInvestigations.

The documents, provided to the FBI in June 2016 as the agency was kicking its Trump-Russia investigation into high gear, allege that Clinton confidant Sidney Blumenthal sent her “a series of detailed memos and reports about Libya,” which were intended as a “quid pro quo” which might help a post-Gaddafi Libya recover as much as $66 billion in offshore funds hidden by the slain strongman.

According to the private investigators funded by Judicial Watch: “Our evidence shows that Mr. Blumenthal was involved with a group of intelligence professionals seeking to repatriate asset[s] which were plundered and then exfiltrated by the [Gaddafi] family and hidden in various offshore localities.”

If successful, Blumenthal and associates “stood to gain a brokers’ cut of perhaps hundreds of millions of dollars.”

The private Libya inquiry leaves important issues unsettled. The documents do not include emails or other original source material to support the allegations within. While claiming to possess evidence that Blumenthal and his associates had contracts and offshore accounts to repatriate the money, the documents say “no concrete evidence” was found suggesting Clinton acted to support the effort.  

Yet if verified, the files might shed light on why Clinton kept her emails, tens of thousands of which have gone missing, out of normal government communication channels. –RealClearInvestigations

The documents, released as part of the FBI’s case files for the Clinton email investigation, code-named “Midyear Exam,” reveal that Blumenthal was deeply involved in the Libya affair with Clinton operative Cody Shearer. The two would later join forces to proffer anti-Trump talking points similar to the largely unproven Steele Dossier.

According to the report, “The FBI’s acquisition of the Libya files made it freshly aware of Blumenthal’s possible past motives – including personal financial gain – as he spurred an investigation meant to help defeat Donald Trump and elect Clinton.

What’s more, FBI agent Peter Strzok “plated an especially pivotal role in the bureau’s response to both sets of allegations.”

The heavily redacted files are part of a 428-page FBI document dump posted on FBI.gov in June, which can be downloaded here (relevant pages: 318-380). The documents are labeled by the FBI as having been received on June 6, 2016 – a month before the first of Comey’s two exonerations of Clinton and roughly seven weeks before the FBI opened its counterintelligence probe of the Trump campaign, relying on the Steele dossier. They are watermarked as having been declassified in December 2016, after the presidential election.

Describing the genesis of the Libya inquiry, FBI notes say its methodology was conceived by private entities with data recovery expertise and that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich referred them to the watchdog group Judicial Watch for financial support. Gingrich, a Republican, did not reply to a request for comment from RealClearInvestigations.

Tom Fitton, president of Judicial Watch, confirmed that his organization funded the freelance investigative project, including research on the encrypted “dark web,” after the work was already underway — “and then we found a key Libya-linked document suggesting Mrs. Clinton’s server was hacked by the Russians.”

He said his group passed the probe’s information on to the FBI team led by Strzok, the agent in charge of the Clinton email inquiry. –RealClearInvestigations

While the FBI files don’t indicate how – if at all, the Libya allegations were pursued, it’s clear that nothing came of the ‘credible allegations’ provided to the same agency which launched the Trump-Russia probe based on a rumor seeded by a self-described member of the Clinton Foundation, Joseph Mifsud.

Read the rest of the report here.

END
What took Trump so long?  Bolton is finally fired and now the swamp is rid of one war mongerer
(zerohedge)

Trump Fires John Bolton After “Disagreeing Strongly With His Suggestions”

While there was some feverish speculation as to what an impromptu presser at 1:30pm with US Secretary of State Pompeo, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and National Security Adviser Bolton would deliver, that was quickly swept aside moments later when Trump unexpectedly announced that he had fired Bolton as National Security Advisor, tweeting that he informed John Bolton “last night that his services are no longer needed at the White House” after “disagreeing strongly with many of his suggestions.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I informed John Bolton last night that his services are no longer needed at the White House. I disagreed strongly with many of his suggestions, as did others in the Administration, and therefore….

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….I asked John for his resignation, which was given to me this morning. I thank John very much for his service. I will be naming a new National Security Advisor next week.

According to sources, while Trump had been growing displeased with Bolton’s belligerent recommendations, the tipping point happened when Bolton expressed his displeasure with Trump’s impromptu invitation of the Taliban to Camp David, a peace overture which as we reported over the weekend, collapsed in the last moment.

As with every Trump personnel decision, this one too appears not to have gone off without a hitch, and moments after Trump’s tweet, Bolton tweeted that “I offered to resign last night and President Trump said, “Let’s talk about it tomorrow.””

It was unclear if they “talked about it”, but Trump’s verdict was clear: you’re fired.

John Bolton

@AmbJohnBolton

I offered to resign last night and President Trump said, “Let’s talk about it tomorrow.”

Whatever the reason for Bolton’s departure, this means one less warmongering neocon is left in the DC swamp, and is a prudent and long overdue move by Trump, one which even Trump’s liberals enemies will have no choice but to applaud.

While we await more details on this strike by Trump against the military-industrial complex-enabling Deep State, here is a fitting closer from Curt Mills via the American Conservative:

Ending America’s longest war would be a welcome rebuttal to Democrats who will, day in and day out, charge that Trump is a fraud. But to do so, he will likely need a national security advisor more in sync with the vision. Among them: Tucker Carlson favorite Douglas Macgregor, Stephen Biegun, the runner-up previously, or the hawkish, but relatively pragmatic retired General Jack Keane.

Bolton seems to be following the well-worn trajectory of dumped Trump deputies. Jeff Sessions, a proto-Trump and the first senator to endorse the mogul, became attorney general and ideological incubator of the new Right’s agenda only to become persona non grata in the administration. The formal execution came later. Bannon followed a less dramatic, but no less explosive ebb and flow. James Mattis walked on water until he didn’t.

And Bolton appeared the leading light of a neoconservative revival, of sorts, until he didn’t.

And while the overall market yawned at the news, oil quickly dropped as the odds of an Iran war tumbled now that the most aggressive neocon is out.

So has Trump finally learned not to surround himself with belligerent war advocates? The answer will be disclosed when Trump reveals who Bolton’s replacement as National Security Advisor will be.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Stocks soared globally on Monday on the usual Monday rally and the expectation that the ECB and Draghi will deliver a rate cut and QE on Thursday.  Additionally, Germany signaled that it will provide fiscal stimulus.

Germany considers ‘shadow budget’ to circumvent national debt rules – sources

Germany is considering setting up independent public agencies that could take on new debt to invest in the country’s flagging economy, without falling foul of strict national spending rules… for some European countries, fiscal tools that are better suited for the task at hand. Indeed, it could well only intensify the spotlight on monetary policy, making even more explicit the increasingly tight corner these institutions are in…

    Indeed, the most likely outcome is that they [central banks] will be viewed as taking measures that are deemed ineffective or, even worse, counterproductive… Absent a significant fiscal commitment from governments and other policy makers, the central banks’ dilemma will only become more acute.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-budget-exclusive/exclusive-germany-mulls-shadow-budget-to-circumvent-strict-debt-rules-sources-idUKKCN1VU1CY

Fed and ECB Are Stuck in a Shrinking Corner                 by Mohamed A. El-Erian

Everyone’s looking to the central banks for results that monetary policy can’t deliver.

    The world’s two most influential central banks [plan] to further loosen monetary policy. It will most likely do little to improve what has been a steadily darkening outlook for the global economy…

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-08/fed-and-ecb-are-stuck-in-a-shrinking-corner

Unfortunately for US bulls, the US stock market peaked on the opening.  Stocks and ESUs declined until the afternoon rally appeared.  The usual late ESU manipulation got indices near break even on the day.

The S&P 500 Index had an Inside Day on Friday.  The index broke out to the upside on the open.  But, the immediate reversal proved that the move was a false breakout.  This exacerbated selling.

Today – The false upside breakout of the Inside Day for the S&P 500 Index from Friday created an Outside Day on Monday.  This back-to-back occurrence is rare and indicates that the market is probing for direction and coiling for a significant move.  The S&P 500 Index high (2988.43) and low (2971.16) are obviously important levels for today.

Because we all know that traders are bullish for the expected ECB easing, who is selling?  Most likely it is investors and money managers.  The ‘real’ players are putting a top on the market for now.  Also, astute traders could be selling into surges and buying on dips.  This pattern should continue until after the FOMC Communique is released a week from Wednesday.

ESUs are +6.00 at 21:00 ET on Monday night.  Yep, it’s the same movie at the same time that keeps appearing most nights.  Traders, and possibly manipulators, keep buying ESU during the night time when the market is thin.  But, increasingly, someone is sell after the NYSE opens.

The S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 2945; 100-day MA: 2912; 150-day MA: 2875; 200-day MA: 2809

The DJIA 50-day MA: 26,562; 100-day MA: 26,298; 150-day MA: 26,118; 200-day MA: 25,640

S&P 500 Index support: 2972, 2955-60, 2940-45, 2930, 2922, 2914, 2900, 2880, 2870, 2860, 2853

Resistance: 2985 (double top), 2990, 3000, 3013-17, 3027

Expected economic data: Aug NFIB Small Biz Optimism 103.5; July JOLTS Job Openings 7.311m; Fed officials are in a blackout period

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames

Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 2502.93 triggers a sell signal

Weekly: Trender is positive;MACD is negative – a close below 2816.78 triggers a sell signal

Daily: Trender is negative; MACD is positive -a close above 2980.42 triggers a buy signal

Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 2945.85 triggers a sell sign

Well that is all for today

I will see you Wednesday night.

 

One comment

  1. Hi Harvey,
    Thanks for this interesting blog. Could you please elaborate on what this means:

    “WE HAD NO DOUBT SOME COVERING OF BANKER SHORTS AGAIN AT THE SILVER COMEX ON FRIDAY WITH THE HUGE RAID ORCHESTRATED BY THE CROOKED BANKERS AT 12:30 PM EST.

    If the comerical banks like JPM are perpetually short then surely covering shorts (buying back) would have pushed the price up, yet it fell dramatically last Friday?

    What is the raid (on price? supply?) and by which banks, JPM?

    THE LIQUIDATION OF COMEX OI OF SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED AND WE WILL NOW COMMENCE WITH THE ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADERS GOLD OPEN INTEREST”

    What does this mean please?

    “TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  77.310 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.”

    Huge supply of silver by producers or do you mean demand?

    What does it actually mean this exchanging of Futures for Physicals in terms of whether the people exchanging contracts are long or short? Why does the EFP mechanism mean a transfer from COMEX to the LME and not any other exchange?

    Cheers!

    Like

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