SEPT 12//DRAGHI INITIATES ANOTHER ROUND OF QE IN EUROPE AGAINST THE WISHES OF HIS NORTHERN BRETHREN//THE CLUB MED SOUTHERN BOYS ARE QUITE EXCITED TO SEE THE ECB BUY MORE OF THEIR WORTHLESS BONDS//GOLD RISES $4.70 TO $1500/00//SILVER IS FLAT AT $18.10//BOTH COMEX GOLD AND COMEX SILVER SEE QUEUE JUMPING AGAIN// WE HAVE AN ASTRONOMICAL AMOUNT STANDING IN SILVER AND YET NOT ONE OZ LEAVES THE COMEX//ACTUALLY NOT ONE OZ HAS LEFT EITHER GOLD OR SILVER COMEX//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/KING REPORT///

GOLD:$1500.00 UP $4.70 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$18.10 UP 0 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1498.80

 

silver:  $18.08

Today Draghi did not disappoint as he lowered interest rates by another 10 basis points but more important he is going to engage in more QE as Europe’s economy is moribund.  In a classic confrontation, Draghi lied that he had 100% consent..he did not..only the southern club med boys were happy as the ECB will continue to buy their worthless sovereign bonds.  The Northern boys like Germany, Holland and Finland were quite angry..we may have a Mutiny on the Bounty scenario.  Christine Lagarde will take over in Oct and she is more dovish than Draghi. Draghi is thrilled to get out of this hell hole and leave it up to Lagarde to solve.

 

As per gold and silver today, the bankers have no doubt a very serious derivative problem here.  It looks like $1500 gold and $18.20 silver is quite toxic to them.

 

your report for today…

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 2/4

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,494.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/11/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 09/13/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 2
661 H JP MORGAN 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 4
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 4 4
MONTH TO DATE: 1,717

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT CONTRACT: 4 NOTICE(S) FOR 400 OZ (0.0124 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1717 NOTICES FOR 171,700 OZ  (5.3405 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR SEPT

 

 

268 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1330,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 7871 for   39,355,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10146 DOWN 8 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10329 UP 171

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A TINY  SIZED 257 CONTRACTS FROM 217,433 UP TO 217,690 WITH THE SMALL 1 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. (STRANGE: THE FINAL OI IN SILVER IS HIGHER THAN THE PRELIMINARY NUMBER BY 37 CONTRACTS)

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

 FOR SEPT: 0, FOR DEC: 1050 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1050 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1050 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1050 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 5.25 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 1 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

41.495   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

WE AGAIN HAD  SOME ATTEMPTED COVERING OF BANKER SHORTS  AT THE SILVER COMEX YESTERDAY AS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE RAID ORCHESTRATED BY THE CROOKED BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR ENDED IN FAILURE.  IT IS BECOMING ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE FOR OUR BANKING/OFFICIAL SECTOR TO FLEECE OUR LONGS.

 

THE LIQUIDATION OF COMEX OI OF SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED AND WE WILL NOW COMMENCE WITH THE ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADERS GOLD OPEN INTEREST

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT:

18,033 CONTRACTS (FOR 8 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 18,033 CONTRACTS) OR 90.17 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2254 CONTRACTS OR 11.27 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  90.17 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 12.88% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1639.78   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 257, WITH THE 1 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1050 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD  SIZED: 1270 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1050 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 220  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 1 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.10 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.087 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 155% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 268 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,340,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/  SEPT 41.495 MILLION OZ// 

 

2         THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.

3           HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING                      EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP

ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 5459 CONTRACTS, TO 620,212 ACCOMPANYING THE  $5.30 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// /

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7080 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  7080 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 620,212,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,539 CONTRACTS: 5459 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 7080 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 12,539 CONTRACTS OR 1,253,900 OZ OR 39.00 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A SMALLISH GAIN OF $5.30 IN GOLD TRADING….AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 39.00  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER TRYING TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 42.17  TONNES!!!!!!. THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON BUT LIKE SILVER IT WAS TO NO AVAIL.  OUR BANKER FRIENDS/OFFICIAL SECTOR ARE GAINING NOTHING WITH THEIR CONTINUAL RAIDS. NO WONDER THE CROOKS ABANDONED THEIR RAIDING EFFORTS RATHER EARLY YESTERDAY MORNING.

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 59,576 CONTRACTS OR 5,957,600 oz OR 185.31 TONNES (8 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 7447 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 185.31 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 185.31/3550 x 100% TONNES =5.22% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4336.91  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 5459 DESPITE THE SMALL  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($5.30)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7080 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7080 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 12,539 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7080 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 5459 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 39.00 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE SMALLISH GAIN IN PRICE OF $5.30 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  4 notice(s) filed upon for 400 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY:

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 257 CONTRACTS from 217,433 UP TO 217,690 AND CLOSER TO A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR SEPT. 0; FOR DEC  1050  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1050 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 257  CONTRACTS TO THE 1050 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD GAIN OF 1307 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6.535 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//

SEPT  2019: 41.495 MILLION OZ//

 

 

 

RESULT: A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 1 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1050 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.42 POINTS OR 0.75%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 71.43 POINTS OR 0.26%   /The Nikkei closed UP 161.85 POINTS OR 0.75%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .20%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0852 /Oil DOWN TO 55.35 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.02 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0852 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0776 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)Last night:  Trump delays increase in Chinese tariffs over just two weeks but that was enough to cause futures to surge

(zerohedge)

ii)CHINA/ARGENTINA/USA/During the night:

This tempered the uSA excitement when China heads to Argentina looking for soy meal in a landmark deal.
(zerohedge)
iii)This morning:  Beijing now considers re authorizing imports of USA agricultural products in their latest goodwill gesture
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)ECB

This was not what the European banks wanted to hear: got expected 10 basis point cut in interest rates.  They are to start open ended QE as well as easing TLTRO.  He also introduces tiering to help the beleaguered banks.

(zerohedge)

ii)And the jawboning commences: Trump praises the ECB for “depreciating the Euro” as they slam the Fed for doing absolutely nothing

(zerohedge)

iii)looks like we have our good ol’ fashioned “Mutiny on the Bounty’ as European’s top central bankers dissented over new QE(zerohedge)

iv)ITALY

Rome asks for more time trying to tackle its huge debt at 135% of GDP. Brussels does not want to start a war with Italy as Conte is friendly to the European ways.

(zerohedge)

v)Negative rates has totally destroyed savings for Germans.  Remember when you have savings you have investment. This policy has hurt all European banks badly as they refuse to lend and no investment occurs as their economy continues to falter.  Mish comments at the end of the commentary…

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY

You really cannot trust any data coming from Turkey.  They claim that inflation is down to just 15% but that is very doubtful.  It is probably much higher.  The lira is now the big carry trade

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

Graham Summers correctly points out that momentum stocks or the leaders of the Dow/Nasdaq are faltering  and this is a harbinger of things to come to the rest of the market

(Graham Summers)

7. OIL ISSUES

We now witness employment in the shale oil and gas sector tumble..Here is the data on that:

(zerohedge)

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)We covered this yesterday but it is worth repeating.  Trump urges zero or negative interest rates to tackle the huge USA debt.  If this were to happen in the first 15 minutes at all USA rates go negative will cause gold to go infinite and all commodities will be backward..an impossible event.

(Reuters/GATA)

ii) Mario’s huge QE causes gold to rise

Gold trading/silver trading this morning

(zerohedge)

iii)A very important interview on negative interest rates with respect to gold.  Chris Marcus interview Dave Kranzler

(Dave Kranzler/Chris Marcus)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

a)A mixed bag:  core consumer prices surge although headline CPI rising less than expected.  Now what will Powell do next week..will he lower rates and accommodate Trump or get him angry and stay pat.
(zerohedge)

b)Usually Sept. produces a positive income flow.  However as he indicated to you yesterday, the USA for the first time will have a budgetary deficit greater than one trillion dollars and that number does not include deficits for auto loans and student loans

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

This Challenger report of jobs is extremely important.  We are witnessing a record number of CEO’s leave their posts along with a growing corporate layoffs.  This should tell you in spades what is really going on the jobs market,

(Mish Shedlock/Challenger Christmas/Gray//)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Lindsay Graham’s goal is to declassify everything including all the FISA warrant applications. This should bury the democrats.

(Sara Carter)

b)Trump wins big as the Supreme Court overrules a California judge and grants asylum restrictions at the Southern border

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 5459 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 620,212 ACCOMPANYING THE GAIN OF $5.30 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7080 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR SEPT : 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 7080   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7080 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 12,539 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7080 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 5459 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD IN OUR 5TH CONSECUTIVE RAID YESTERDAY.  THE BANKERS FAILED IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE AS IT REVERSED EARLY TO END HIGHER BY $5.25. JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE AGAIN UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY  UNSUSPECTING LONGS. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  12,539 CONTRACTS OR 1,253,900 OZ OR 39.00 TONNES.

We are now in the NON  active contract month of SEPT and here the open interest stands at 29 CONTRACTS and  we lost 17 contracts.  We had 22 notices filed yesterday so despite the raid and liquidation of contracts we gained 5 contracts or an additional 500 oz of gold that will stand for delivery at the comex and the siege continues as the story for physical gold is the name of the game despite the criminal antics of the bankers.

The next active delivery month is October and here the OI FELL by 1120 contracts DOWN to 39,225. The month of November saw a gain of  9 contracts and thus the OI is rises to 103.  The very big December contract month saw its OI RISE by 5229 contracts down to 460,210.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 4 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  400 OZ. (.0124 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 257 CONTRACTS FROM 217,433 UP TO 217,690 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S TINY  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 1 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.  HERE WE HAVE 696 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A SURPRISING GAIN OF 98 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 156 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE AGAIN SURPRISINGLY GAINED A MONSTROUS 254 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 1,270,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..  THE NEXT NON ACTIVE CONTRACT MONTH IS OCTOBER AND IT RECEIVED ANOTHER 23 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1693. NOVEMBER SAW A SMALL GAIN OF 11 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 133. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI FALLS BY 439 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 170,397.

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 268 notice(s) filed for 1340,000 OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 480,637  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  328,644  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  SEPT/GOLD

SEPT 12/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 707.300 oz

 

22  kilobars

 

 

Manfra

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
4 notice(s)
 400 OZ
(0.0124 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
25 contracts
(2500 oz)
.0777 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1717 notices
171700 OZ
5.3405 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else:  zero

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 0  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ zero amount  arrived   today

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i) Out of Manfra: 707.300 oz

22 kilobars

and this is a phony entry.

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 707.300  oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today
FOR THE SEPT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 4 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1717) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT. (29 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (4 x 100 oz per contract) equals 174,200 OZ OR 5.418 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of SEPT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1717 x 100 oz)  + (29)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (4 x 100 oz )which equals 174,200 oz standing OR 5.418 TONNES in this  active delivery month of AUGUST.

 

We surprisingly again gained 1 contract or an additional 100 oz will seek metal on this side of the pond instead of morphing over to London.  The gold comex is now under siege for any remaining physical metal.

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 27.153  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING //AUGUST AND 5.418 TONNES IN SEPT.//

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT AND THUS I WILL ADD THE 27.153 TONNES TO THE 5.418 TONNES (EQUALS 32.571 TONNES) AGAINST THE 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  736,702.381 oz or  22.91 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,096.165.484 oz 251.824 tonnes

IN THE LAST 35 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
SEPT 12 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 135,987.278 oz
CNT
Scotia
Int. Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
598,520.229 oz
Brinks

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
599,660.360 oz
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
268
CONTRACT(S)
(1,340,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
428 contracts
 2,140,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  7871 contracts

39,355,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i)Into brinks: 598,520.229  oz

 

total dealer deposits: 598,520.229  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii) Into Scotia: 599,660.360  oz

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  599,660.360  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT:  26,125.360 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 60,826.380  oz

iii) Out of Int Delaware: 49,035.538

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 135,987.278  oz

 

we had 0 adjustment :

 

 

total dealer silver:  86.866 million

total dealer + customer silver:  315.339 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER 2019. contract month is represented by 268 contract(s) FOR 1,340,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 7871 x 5,000 oz = 39,355,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (696) and the number of notices served upon today 258 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2019 contract month: 7871 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (696)- number of notices served upon today (258)x 5000 oz equals 41,495,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month. 

We gained another strong 254 contracts or a huge 1,270,000 additional oz of silver will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER AND DESPITE THESE PAST MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  102,946 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 96,960 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 96,960CONTRACTS EQUATES to 484 million  OZ 69.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.77% ((SEPT 12/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.46% to NAV (SEPT 11/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.77%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.17 TRADING 14.65/DISCOUNT 3.43

 

 

 

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 12//WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A HUGE 7.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.15 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: I)A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD (LATE YESTERDAY EVENING) AND 2) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES LATE THIS AFTERNOON./INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.17 TONNES

AUGUST 20//WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WE GOT BACK 7.63 TONNES OUT OF 11.11 TONNES LOST ON WEDNESDAY( A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

 

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

SEPT 12/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 889.75 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 662 TRADING DAYS: 52.96 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 562- TRADING DAYS: A NET 113.69 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION PAPER OZ OF SILVER///INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.425 MILLION PAPER OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.179 MILLION OZ../

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 60 CENTS TODAY: A RATHER TIMID CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 842,000 PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 386.604 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.696 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20.WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 16/: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 15/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/2019:

 

 

Inventory 379.401 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.10/ and libor 6 month duration 2.05

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .05

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.02%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.01

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.01

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

We covered this yesterday but it is worth repeating.  Trump urges zero or negative interest rates to tackle the huge USA debt.  If this were to happen in the first 15 minutes at all USA rates go negative will cause gold to go infinite and all commodities will be backward..an impossible event.

(Reuters/GATA)

Trump urges zero or negative interest rates to tackle U.S. debt

 Section: 

So the game is in plain view now: Free and infinite money to devalue the debt away, accompanied by more commodity price suppression and destruction of markets so the public and investors don’t catch on too fast and try to abandon government currencies altogether.

* * *

From Reuters
Wednesday, September 10, 2019

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump called on the Federal Reserve to push down interest rates into negative territory, a move reluctantly used by other world central banks to battle weak economic growth as it punishes savers and banks’ earnings in the process.

Trump, in a pair of Twitter posts, said that would save the government money on its debt. He did not address the risks or financial market tensions that central banks in Europe and Japan confront as a result of their negative rate policy, or the larger issue that negative rates have not done much to boost growth or raise inflation as intended.

… 

“We have the great currency, power, and balance sheet … The USA should always be paying the … lowest rate. No inflation!” Trump tweeted.

“It is only the naïvete of (Fed Chairman) Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve that doesn’t allow us to do what other countries are already doing,” added Trump, who has repeatedly noted that rates are negative in Germany, Europe’s trading powerhouse. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-fed/trump-urges-zero-or-neg…

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

 

iii) Other physical stories:

Gold and silver trading after Draghi unveils more easing

(zerohedge)

Gold Surges After Draghi Unveils Moar Easing

It seems open-ended ECB QE was just the thing that gold-buyers were waiting for as heavy volume sent gold futures soaring this morning…

 

Silver is not moving so much for now…

end
A very important interview on negative interest rates with respect to gold.  Chris Marcus interview Dave Kranzler
(Dave Kranzler/Chris Marcus)

Negative Rates, Money Printing and Gold

“As well as being modified by its specific supply and demand conditions, Gold’s time preference is essentially for its moneyness, represented by its use as a medium of exchange and store of value. The moneyness aspect links it to its exchange value for all commodities, and it is this aspect of gold’s qualities that should warn us that a backwardation in gold, emanating from negative dollar interest rates, will herald a general backwardation in commodities as well.” – Alasdair Macleod, Negative Rates and Gold

The “perfect storm” is forming that will push gold to record highs in U.S. dollars. In 2008 a near-perfect storm hit the global financial system that drove the price of gold to record level in just about every currency including dollars. The only missing ingredient back then was negative interest rates. The same financial excesses that caused the previous financial crisis have reformed only now they are much larger in scale. Most of the western hemisphere has already implemented negative interest rates. Now Trump has opened that Pandora’s Box in the U.S.

Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics invited me onto this podcast to discuss the implications of Trump’s proposal and how it will affect the precious metals sector:

-END-

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0852/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST  7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0776   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 22.42 POINTS OR 0.75%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 71.43 POINTS OR 0.26%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 161.85 POINTS OR 0.75%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 97.53/Euro RISES TO 1.1027

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.21/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 55.35 and Brent: 60.02

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.59%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.98% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.23%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.57: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.64

3k Gold at $1505.25 silver at: 18.26   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 51/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.99

3m oil into the 55 dollar handle for WTI and 60 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.86 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9901 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0918 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.59%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.72% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.20%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6838..

Rally Fizzles As Futures Fade Trade War De-Escalation, All Eyes On The ECB

World stocks and US equity futures climbed to their highest in six weeks on Thursday, even if much of the gains fizzled in the overnight session, while the ECB was set to offer new stimulus measures and the United States and China made mutual concessions in their trade dispute.

 

Late on Wednesday, President Trump announced on twitter he would delay an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by two weeks, after China exempted some U.S. drugs and other goods from tariffs, as a sign of “goodwill” toward China. The two moves buoyed stock markets from Asia to Europe and put pressure on safe assets like the Japanese yen.

In response to the Trump tweet, Global Times editor in chief Hu Xijin said that China “Welcome this decision. It should be seen as a goodwill gesture the US side made for creating good vibes for the trade talks scheduled in early October. Yesterday China announced to remove 16 categories of US products from tariff list. Hope reciprocity of goodwill can continue.”

 

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

Welcome this decision. It should be seen as a goodwill gesture the US side made for creating good vibes for the trade talks scheduled in early October. Yesterday China announced to remove 16 categories of US products from tariff list. Hope reciprocity of goodwill can continue. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1171925716503584773 

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

At the request of the Vice Premier of China, Liu He, and due to the fact that the People’s Republic of China will be celebrating their 70th Anniversary….

Meanwhile, China is considering whether to permit renewed imports of American farm goods including soybeans and pork, according to people familiar with the situation.

Still, some analysts said investors were getting too eager for good news on the U.S.-China trade war, and warned that the prospects of a quick resolution were still remote, they warned:  “I don’t think we’re heading for a deal soon,” said Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Markets.com. “The market is just buying on any kind of positive news – it seems hungry for anything. It’s setting itself up for a bit of disappointment.”

That may explain why after surging to just shy of all time high after the Trump tweet, futures have since faded much of the move.

 

The MSCI world equity index rose 0.1% to its highest since Aug. 1. It was on course for its seventh straight day of gains, its best winning streak in since early June.

Europe’s Euro STOXX 600 climbed to its highest in nearly seven weeks, but like US futures gave up most gains. Paris and London markets also relinquished early gains, though Frankfurt held onto a 0.2% advance. Wall Street futures gauges were up 0.1%.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose for a second day, led by material producers and technology firms as trade tensions eased. Most markets in the region were up, with China leading gains. The Topix climbed 0.7% to a four-month high, as Daikin Industries and Daiichi Sankyo offered strong support. Japanese earnings revisions will likely bottom out next month, Citi equity strategist Tomochika Kitaoka wrote in a Sept. 12 note. The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.8%, with Kweichow Moutai and Ping An Insurance Group among major boosts. India’s Sensex fluctuated, as a rally in ICICI Bank countered declines in Reliance Industries and Tata Consultancy Services

With trade war apparently moving in the right direction, markets now focused on the ECB’s move, due at 745 ET, which also carries a risk of overly optimistic market expectations as major central banks worldwide have been loosening monetary policy, as inflation expectations are sliding and the powerhouse German economy is at risk of recession. Consequently, ECB President Mario Draghi has all but promised more support. But, as we discussed last night, the central bank’s exact moves are far from certain, and any decision that underwhelms markets could push up borrowing costs.

Among the likely measures are a cut in the ECB’s record-low minus 0.4% deposit rate, a multi-tier deposit rate, and new guidance on rates that would tie any move to certain inflation conditions. A new round of bond buying, the bank’s most potent weapon, is also an option – but policymakers from Germany to France are sceptical about that move.

“We could see some disappointment here. The challenge is more about forward guidance and reassurance for the future,” said Christophe Barraud, chief economist at Market Securities in Paris. “It would be surprising if the ECB launches a big stimulus right now ahead of uncertainties such as hard Brexit and the trade war.”

Whether the ECB cuts rates by 10 or 20 bps is neither here or there. The big question is whether they restart QE, and if they don’t, we will see a further sell-off in bonds, especially longer-dated ones.” said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets.

In rates, Euro zone government bonds were steady in early trade, after rising from record lows reached a week ago on doubts that the ECB would resume asset purchases.

The optimism over trade and the looming ECB decision were felt in currency markets, too: the euro initially fell to a one-week low of $1.0983 overnight on expectations of ECB easing before steadying in morning trade, although it since spiked amid a wave of short covering. The euro has shed 3.5% since June. With risk-hungry investors emboldened, the Chinese yuan gained 0.4% against the dollar, touching a three-week high of 7.0855.

BMO’s FX strategist Stephen Gallo said he was surprised by the rebound, particularly in the yuan pushing beyond 7.10 to the dollar. “The bigger picture is one of a very tense geopolitical environment that is unlikely to be rectified quickly,” he said. The Japanese yen, a safe haven for nervous investors, fell to a six-week low against the dollar, and was last down 0.1% at 107.88.

In commodities, Brent crude futures fell as a meeting of the OPEC+ alliance yielded no discussion about increasing supply cuts. They focused instead on bringing Nigerian and Iraqi output down to their agreed quotas. Brent crude futures fell 69 cents, or 1.1%, to $60.12 a barrel, heading for a third session of losses.

 

 

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,008.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.02% to 389.78
  • MXAP up 0.5% to 159.07
  • MXAPJ up 0.5% to 513.33
  • Nikkei up 0.8% to 21,759.61
  • Topix up 0.7% to 1,595.10
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 27,087.63
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,031.24
  • Sensex down 0.1% to 37,233.50
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,654.87
  • Kospi up 0.8% to 2,049.20
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to -0.579%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1028
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 5.0 bps to 0.629%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.2 bps to 0.223%
  • Brent futures down 0.6% to $60.46/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,503.72
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 98.51

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Mario Draghi is embroiled in one of the most contentious policy meetings of his European Central Bank presidency as he prepares to ramp up monetary stimulus again despite skepticism from the euro area’s biggest economies
  • The U.S. and China are taking small steps to ease trade tensions, as negotiators prepare for the resumption of face-to-face talks in coming weeks. On Wednesday, Trump said he was postponing the imposition of 5% extra tariffs on Chinese goods by two weeks; China is considering whether to permit renewed imports of American farm goods including soybeans and pork
  • The full scale of the damage a no-deal Brexit could cause to the U.K. was revealed when Boris Johnson’s government published its worst-case scenario in a document it tried to keep secret. The five-page summary of no-deal planning, code-named Yellowhammer, was released late Wednesday
  • The Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. plan to take over London Stock Exchange Group Plc is running into multiple obstacles less than 24 hours after the surprise bid was launched, with the U.K. bourse leaning toward rejecting the offer in its current form, according to people familiar
  • As OPEC and its allies meet, the IEA said it faces a significant challenge in managing the market into 2020. Demand for the group’s crude in the first half of 2020 will be 1.4 million barrels a day below its August output as production surges from their competitors, including the U.S.

Asian equity markets were mostly higher as the region sustained the momentum from Wall St where US-China trade concessions fuelled the S&P 500 past the 3000 milestone and the DJIA back above 27k after China announced a tariff exemption list on imports from US, while US President Trump reciprocated by delaying the next round of tariffs on China to October 15th from October 1st. ASX 200 (+0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.8%) were higher with support seen across the trade sensitive sectors in Australia although energy suffered amid recent losses in oil, while the Japanese benchmark was underpinned by a weaker currency and following better than expected Machine Orders data. Conversely, Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) were mixed despite the encouraging trade developments as some suggested China’s olive branch could be to ease pressure from its weakening economy. The US delay of the tariff increase to 30% from 25% on USD 250bln of Chinese goods was also said to have left some dissatisfied in which Global Times noted comments that the postponement does not mean a big improvement as talks remain tough, while it was also suggested that the delay is far from enough and some called for a removal of the extra tariffs. Furthermore, the downside in Hong Kong was led by the blue-chip energy names and a slump in HKEX after its recent GBP 32bln proposal for LSE which could ultimately be rejected amid doubts regarding political risk and the deal structure. Finally, 10yr JGBs initially declined amid the improvement in trade relations and after similar pressure in USTs as yields rebounded, but later rebounded as support near 154.50 held and amid the BoJ presence for JPY 680bln of JGBs in the belly to super-long end.

Top Asian News

  • Turkey Can Go Big on Rate Cut Without Erdogan’s Iconoclast Nudge
  • Yahoo Japan to Pay $3.7 Billion to Take Over Maezawa’s Zozo
  • Iron Ore Glory Days Seen Numbered as China Demand Rolls Over

A mixed session for European equities thus far [Eurostoxx 50 +0.2%] after the trade-fuelled gains seen at the open somewhat dissipated ahead of the much-anticipated ECB meeting and US CPI data amid the risk that the Central Bank may disappoint. Sectors are mixed with energy the laggard amid price action in the complex. Turning to individual stocks, AB InBev (+3.8%) shares were bolstered to the top of the Stoxx 600 amid renewed efforts to explore an IPO of its Budweiser Brewing unit on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Meanwhile, sources stated that LSE (Unch) is poised to reject the GBP 32bln merger offer from the Hong Kong Exchange due to concerns over political risks and deal structure. On the flip side, Whitbread (-2.7%), Lloyds (-2.0) and Accor (-3.3%) are all lower on the back of broker moves. In terms of commentary from banks, BAML sees 5% upside in European stocks over the coming 6-months due to positive EZ PMI momentum. The bank targets Stoxx 600 at 395 points for year end (~389 at time of writing).

Top European News

  • France’s Bouygues Sells 13% Stake in Alstom for $1.2 Billion
  • TeamViewer IPO Gives Germany Its First Tech Champion in Decades
  • U.K. Earnings Would Still Rise in a No-Deal Brexit, Citi Says
  • Trainline Surges After U.K. Ticket Sales Prompt Guidance Rise

In FX, the EUR has reclaimed 1.1000+ status vs the Greenback and survived another test of technical support ahead of 0.8900 against the Pound having crossed the 100 DMA, but the Euro’s fate will ultimately depend to a large extent on how much policy easing the ECB delivers later, or what President Draghi says to address any disappointment/overexuberance in the post-meeting news conference and Q&A. Indeed, given the wide spread of options signalled by the Bank in July and clearly divergent leanings from the GC since, expectations are far more polarised than usual – see our full preview on the Research Suite. In the run up to 12.45BST and 13.30BST, a spread of hefty option expiries should keep Eur/Usd occupied and contained, with 1.1 bn at 1.0970-80, 1.5 bn at 1.1000 and 1.8 bn between 1.1040-55 vs the 1.1006-32 range so far.

  • NZD/AUD/CHF – The Antipodean Dollars are just outperforming the Franc at the head of the G10 ranks, as US-China trade relations continue to thaw via President Trump responding to Beijing’s goodwill gesture by delaying planned tariff hikes on Chinese goods for 14 days from October 1 to 15. However, the recently lagging Kiwi has benefited most this time, with Nzd/Usd regaining a firmer foothold above 0.6400, while the Aussie continues to face heavy resistance and cross-winds ahead of 0.6900 and over 1.0700 in Aud/Nzd. Meanwhile, Usd/Chf has retreated towards 0.9900 again, shrugging off softer Swiss producer/import prices, but aided by a broad Buck fade (DXY slipping back to pivot 98.500 compared to a 98.746 peak yesterday) and the aforementioned still defensive Eur (cross meandering from 1.0945 to 1.0915).
  • CAD/JPY/GBP – All on a softer footing, as the Loonie hands back more gains having failed to sustain its rally beyond 1.3150 and a further downturn in crude prices also weighs on sentiment ahead of US CPI, initial claims and more Canadian housing data. Usd/Cad has subsequently extended to almost 1.3200, in line with Usd/Jpy rising through 108.00 before waning around the 100 DMA (108.15), but holding above decent expiry interest at 107.50-60 (1.6 bn). Elsewhere, Sterling has faded some distance from recent peaks and short of 1.2350 amidst less than positive reports from the EU on the subject of a Brexit breakthrough, as the UK has still not provided a real alternative to the Irish border backstop. Cable is currently just above the 55 DMA (1.2311) circa 1.2325.
  • EM – Broad gains across the region in part due to the constructive US-China trade developments and the Dollar’s loss of momentum noted above, but with the Yuan also heeding another steady PBoC reference rate overnight, while the Lira has regained some composure into the CBRT after markedly underperforming of late amidst aggressive easing forecasts – again a more detailed primer is available via the Ransquawk website.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures have been dipping in recent trade after a sideways overnight session, with the JMMC meeting in Abu Dhabi underway. Commentary from oil ministers has largely surrounded the need to bring compliance to 100% for all members. Sources also noted that the oil producers are holding discussions over whether to enhance compliance with oil cuts, which could result in an effective output reduction of around 400k bpd; although, this may be less than participants envisaged. Furthermore, the new-appointed Saudi Energy Minister stated that the Kingdom will continue to over-comply, whilst noting that Saudi October production will be 9.89mln BPD, up from the August level of 9.63mln BPD, which could have added pressure in the oil complex. WTI and Brent futures currently reside below 55.50/bbl and 60.50/bbl ahead of the ECB Monetary Policy decision. Elsewhere, gold prices have reclaimed the 1500/oz to the upside amid a weaker USD and nervousness that the ECB could disappoint. It’s also worth keeping in mind that President Trump delaying the China tariffs does not ultimately change the landscape in regard to sticking points, with China noting that talks remain tough and there will be no compromises on IP if it stalls China’s growth. Copper, on the other hand, has extended gains above the 2.60/lb level ahead of its 100 DMA at 2.66/lb amid continued hope that Chinese stimulus will buoy the demand side of the equation.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: US CPI MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.3%; CPI YoY, est. 1.8%, prior 1.8%
  • 8:30am: US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.3%, prior 2.2%; CPI Core Index SA, est. 264.1, prior 263.6
  • 8:30am: Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 1.3%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,000, prior 217,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.68m, prior 1.66m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 63.4
  • 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $197.5b deficit, prior $119.7b deficit

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

At the end of August, I pretty much finished this year’s annual Long Term Asset Return Study and am just administering the final touches to it ahead of a launch in the next 10 days. To celebrate the maiden voyage, I will be presenting the findings of the report at DB’s London HQ on Wednesday, September 25th at 8.30am (teas and coffees) for a 9am presentation. The report is entitled “The History and Future of Debt” and I specifically look at the record high levels of global debt and assess the likely future path using historical experience of how the level of indebtedness has ebbed and flowed through time. To register for the event please click here .

It won’t be a surprise to anyone that QE features heavily in the report both in historical terms and my belief that QE will eventually turn into helicopter money in the years ahead and that central bank holdings of government bonds will only grow and grow. With the crucial ECB meeting today, the main talking point in the near term is whether additional QE – that looked so nailed on a month ago – actually gets downplayed in the overall easing package or even postponed.

Before we preview the ECB in full, it’s worth highlighting the following overnight tweet from Mr Trump that shows some small signs of progress in the trade war. He tweeted that “at the request of the Vice Premier of China, Liu He, and due to the fact that the People’s Republic of China will be celebrating their 70th Anniversary….on October 1st, we have agreed, as a gesture of goodwill, to move the increased Tariffs on 250 Billion Dollars worth of goods (25% to 30%), from October 1st to October 15th”. Hu Xijin, of the Communist Party-controlled Global Times newspaper tweeted that he saw Mr. Trump’s decision as creating “good vibes” for the early-October talks. In addition, Bloomberg is reporting this morning that the Chinese government is considering whether to permit renewed imports of US farm goods including soybeans and pork, in a show of reciprocation of goodwill ahead of the upcoming face-to-face trade talks. In terms of markets reaction, the onshore Chinese yuan is up +0.41% this morning to 7.0872 alongside most Asian FX.

Equity markets are also heading higher on the news with the Nikkei (+0.89%), Shanghai Comp (+0.20%) and CSI 300 (+0.40%) all up. The Hang Seng is down -0.12%, weighed down by a slide in the city’s exchange thanks to the surprise $36.6bn takeover bid yesterday from Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd for the London Stock Exchange Group Plc, a bold move that would upend the UK bourse’s combination with Refinitiv. South Korean markets are closed for a holiday. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.49% while yields have moved up by c. 2bps across the US treasury curve. As for overnight data releases, Japan’s August PPI came in one-tenth lower than consensus at -0.3% mom and July core machine orders stood at +0.3% yoy (vs. -3.7% yoy expected).

Back to the ECB preview now and the package today will likely include the first cut in the deposit rate since 2016 at what will be President Draghi’s penultimate meeting in charge. At time of writing, the market is split between seeing a 62.9% likelihood of a 10bp move lower, and a smaller 37.1% likelihood of a larger, 20bp cut. In their preview last Friday (link here ), our European economists wrote that they expect the ECB to announce a broad policy easing package, but they think the likelihood of QE being a part of that package have declined, as a result of opposition to new QE from some Governing Council members, along with the risk that further QE which flattens the yield curve would be counterproductive for banks. Their view is that there’ll be a 10bp deposit facility rate cut, upgraded forward guidance, and tiering, which would be more positive for banks.

In terms of the specifics, they expect the 10bp deposit rate cut will be followed by another 10bps in December, after Draghi has left office, and think the “or lower” easing bias will be maintained. On tiering, they think that the ECB will keep the mechanism simple, although this may come at the expense of a dynamic solution (one that adjusts continuously to the volume of excess liquidity). And on forward guidance, they think that the more likely option will be using guidance to strengthen the symmetry of the inflation target. The highest level of uncertainty relates to QE. After Draghi’s dovish Sintra speech, QE became part of baseline expectations. However, our economists are concerned about the inconsistency between QE – big QE at least – and tiering if the latter signals an emergent sensitivity to banking, especially given the fact that some ECB officials have spoken out against new QE over the last few weeks. Even the hawks haven’t really pushed back against rate cut expectations. Our economists adjusted their view on QE last week to anticipate a moderately more pro-banking outcome. That is, a steeper curve which results from no QE or QE targeted at the short end or QE targeted at private assets only. Less QE rather than more, which might be the compromise between hawks and doves, fits with the argument.

So this could be the meeting where the ECB implicitly acknowledges that the reversal rate across the whole curve is near to being breeched or has already been. It’s not a coincident that the Euro Bank Stoxx index hit 7 year lows on August 15th, the first day 10yr Bunds ever closed below -0.7%. In fact, over the last 30 years of data (7,715 days) the banks index has only closed lower than the August 15th level on 8 days, 4 during the 2012 Euro sovereign crisis and 4 in 1987. Not even the GFC/Lehman default period saw lower closes. The +12.99% rally since the recent trough has coincided with the yield sell-off, which has been largely associated with lower expectations for QE. Given how important the banking sector is to the European economy are we at a stage where no public-sector QE would actually be more positive for European growth and markets than some? An open question to you all.

Looking at markets now, it was another eventful day in fixed income yesterday with 10yr Treasuries swinging between gains and losses before ultimately selling off for the sixth consecutive session, up +1.0bps. The picture in Europe was more mixed, as 10yr bund yields ended -1.7bps, having been +1.9bps at their intraday high, while BTPs also fell -5.1bps and gilts closed flat. 30yr bund yields ended the session -2.0bps to almost close in negative territory once again, while in credit, US HY spreads rose +1.3bps to end their run of five successive moves tighter, and Euro HY also moved +1.1bps as they widened for a fourth consecutive session. IG supply still runs at high levels, which is causing some indigestion there.

It was a more consistent story in equity markets where advances were seen across the board. The S&P 500 (+0.71%), Nasdaq (+1.06%) and the Dow Jones (+0.85%) all closed higher with Apple leading the way (+3.18%) after the release of its new iPhone 11. Investor sentiment was boosted by the news we highlighted from the Asia session yesterday that China would be exempting a new list of products from import tariffs for 12 months from September 17. It comes ahead of a planned meeting next month where Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will be travelling to Washington. Trade-related stocks performed strongly, with the Philadelphia semi-conduct index up +1.46%. Yesterday’s strong credit data from China helped sentiment as well, as new yuan loans and aggregate financing both rose more than expected. In Europe, the STOXX 600 rose +0.85% to reach its highest level in 6 weeks, although the STOXX Banks index (discussed at length above) snapped a run of 5 consecutive gains to be down -0.21%.

Elsewhere oil fell further yesterday, with WTI -2.44%, after news reports that President Trump had looked at easing Iranian sanctions in order to agree a meeting with Iranian President Rouhani. Former National Security Advisor Bolton had taken a hawkish stance on Iran, and his resignation had already sent oil prices lower as markets reacted to the increased chances of diplomacy with Iran. Less risk of supply disruptions translates to a lower risk premium for the commodity. However, WTI prices are back up +0.90% this morning on the news of delay in tariff implementation mentioned above.

Earlier, President Trump had also tweeted about the Fed again, saying they “should get our interest rates down to ZERO, or less, and we should then start to refinance our debt.”

There was an interesting development yesterday in the Brexit saga, as the Court of Session in Scotland ruled yesterday that the prorogation of Parliament was ‘unlawful’, in another in a series of defeats for Prime Minister Johnson. All eyes will now be on the UK Supreme Court, which is set to hear the case on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a spokesman for the Conservatives ruled out a pact with the Brexit Party in an upcoming general election, which could have potentially monopolised the pro-Brexit vote under a single banner. Sterling fell -0.17%, coming a touch off its six-week high against the dollar.

It was a quite day for data with August US PPI the highlight. It rose to 1.8% (vs. 1.7% expected), while the PPI ex-food and energy rose to 2.3% (vs. 2.2% expected). Roll on CPI today.

Looking to the day ahead, the ECB decision and Draghi’s press conference is the main highlight, while the CBT are also meeting. Our CEEMEA team are expecting a 275bps rate cut, in line with expectations, which follows the 425bps cut at the July meeting, but they see the balance of risks tilting towards a larger-than-expected cut (potentially up to 400bps). They also updated their view on TRY, shifting to a more negative view (link here ) . In terms of data releases, we have Euro Area industrial production data for July, the final August CPI readings for France and Germany and Q2 unemployment from Italy. Meanwhile from the US, we’ve got August’s CPI readings and weekly initial jobless claims. Lastly on the political scene, we have another Democratic primary debate tonight, with the top 10 candidates vying for the nomination all on the same stage for the first time.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.42 POINTS OR 0.75%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 71.43 POINTS OR 0.26%   /The Nikkei closed UP 161.85 POINTS OR 0.75%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .20%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0852 /Oil DOWN TO 55.35 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.02 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0852 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0776 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

Last night:  Trump delays increase in Chinese tariffs over just two weeks but that was enough to cause futures to surge

(zerohedge)

Trump Delays Increase In China Tariffs Until October 15; Futures Surge

Just hours after China, as a gesture of goodwill, waived tariffs on 16 types of US goods in a clear attempt to get on Trump’s good side and “sweeten” trade talks, a move which clearly was not lost on the US president, moments ago Trump said he was delaying a 5% increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by two weeks, supposedly out of respect for the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the revolution that brought the communist government to power.

“At the request of the Vice Premier of China, Liu He, and due to the fact that the People’s Republic of China will be celebrating their 70th Anniversary on October 1st, we have agreed, as a gesture of good will, to move the increased Tariffs on 250 Billion Dollars worth of goods (25% to 30%), from October 1st to October 15th,” Trump tweeted at7;17pm.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

At the request of the Vice Premier of China, Liu He, and due to the fact that the People’s Republic of China will be celebrating their 70th Anniversary….

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….on October 1st, we have agreed, as a gesture of good will, to move the increased Tariffs on 250 Billion Dollars worth of goods (25% to 30%), from October 1st to October 15th.

While Trump claimed that the move was out of respect for the Chinese National Day holiday, it is far more likely an in kind response to China’s announcement that a range of U.S. goods would be exempted from 25% extra tariffs put in place last year.

The delay comes into place just 11 days after a new round of tariffs kicked into place, and followed an escalation of the U.S.-China trade war in August when Trump announced an increase in the tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods to 30% from 25% starting Oct. 1.

The nations are scheduled to hold two rounds of face-to-face negotiations in Washington in coming weeks with the first this month and the second in early October with a visit from He.

The news sent S&P Emini futures surging by 0.6%, or up 17 points, to 3,020, just 7 points away from the July 26 all time high, and the Dow up over 140 points…

… sending the Dow back to where it was when Trump suffered his tariff tantrum at the end of July…

… with the Nasdaq…

… and the Yuan also sharply higher.

Source: Bloomberg

In the process roundtripping back to where the yuan was before China announced its retaliation to the latest round of US sanctions.

Source: Bloomberg

But yuan remains dramatically decoupled from US stocks.

Source: Bloomberg

At this rate, the S&P will be at its all time highs by the open tomorrow, which means that next Thursday the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps with the US stock market at fresh all time highs…. unless of course, the Fed sees today’s de-escalation as a key transition in the trade war and decides to delay rate cuts. Which, however, it won’t as otherwise – with the ECB set to cut tomorrow and restart QE – Trump will show up at the Marriner Eccles building with a flamethrower and burn the whole place down.

END
CHINA/ARGENTINA/USA/During the night:
This tempered the uSA excitement when China heads to Argentin looking for soy meal in a landmark deal.
(zerohedge)

Huge Blow To US Farmers: China Heads To Argentina For Soy Meal In Landmark Deal

News for US farmers gets worse by the week. From collapsing farm incomes to plunging crop exports to China, the trade war has likely ushered in the next farm crisis, set to explode across the Central and Midwest US next year.

A new report from Reuters outlines how China has ditched US farmers for Argentina. An agreement between both countries is expected to be signed on Wednesday in Buenos Aires, describes how Argentina, the world’s biggest exporter of the animal feed, will allow China to import soy meal for the first time.

Last month Chinese officials examined several Argentine soy meal companies ahead of the signing ceremony on Wednesday.

 

Argentina’s Agriculture Ministry said in a statement on Tuesday that after two decades of discussions, the Asian giant will begin imports of soy meal in the near term.

The deciding factor for the landmark deal was the US-China trade war, which strengthened Argentina’s hand after China halted all US agriculture product imports this summer, prompting China to source more agriculture products from South America.

“This is a historic agreement,” Gustavo Idigoras, president of Argentina’s CIARA-CEC chamber of grains exporting companies told Reuters, though he added the deal still required a two-step process of plant authorizations and then registrations that could take several more months.

Idigoras said, “shipments aren’t expected to start immediately,” but could start in the near term. China still has some bureaucratic bottlenecks before cargoes can set sail, he added.

In a separate report last month, China is preparing a bid that would allow it to dredge Argentina’s Parana River, the country’s only river that acts as a waterway for bulk vessels that transport soybean and corn from the Pampas farm belt to the South Atlantic.

An increased waterway would allow China to create a grain superhighway in Argentina that would effectively be able to replace US farmers.

Argentina, already the top exporter of processed soy, is expected to export 26 million tons of soy meal this year worldwide, and 8.5 million tons of raw beans.

“It is excellent and timely news. Argentina needs to add more value to its exports to China and the world,” said Luis Zubizarreta, president of Argentina’s ACSOJA soy industry organization that represents farmers.

Allowing China to buy from Argentine farmers would tremendously boost exports next year. China has come at the right time, considering profit margins have been falling, and idle capacity has increased to more than 50%.

China has been busy in South America. They’ve been building massive infrastructure projects across Argentina, from hydroelectric plants to railways.

Business-friendly President Mauricio Macri has said the new partnership with China would boost the country’s agricultural sector and create enormous opportunities for farmers.

While boom times are here for Argentine farmers, a bust cycle is imminent for US farmers who are on the brink of collapse after being shut out of China thanks to President Trump’s trade policies.

END
This morning:  Beijing now considers re authorizing imports of USA agricultural products in their latest goodwill gesture
(zerohedge)

Beijing Considers Re-Authorizing Imports Of US Agricultural Products In Latest ‘Goodwill’ Gesture

Last night, we reported that President Trump had decided to delay a 5% increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by two weeks, supposedly out of respect for Beijing and its celebration of 70 years of Communist Party rule on Oct. 1. Trump’s decision came less than a day after China waived 25% tariffs on 16 types of US goods to try and “sweeten” the deal ahead of trade talks next month.

 

Now, in the latest tit-for-tat deescalation of trade tensions, Bloomberg reports that Beijing is considering whether to permit imports of American agricultural products including soybeans and pork, a move that would further alleviate trade tensions while bolstering support for Trump in the midwestern farm states that comprise a sizable chunk of his base. Foodstuffs and farm products were notably not included in the 16 goods exempted from tariffs earlier this week. According to the Ministry of Commerce, Chinese companies have started asking about prices for US soybeans and pork, a sign that they could restart imports in the near future.

Reopening the door to US soybean imports would come at a critical time for Beijing, which this week announced that it would start allowing imports of soy meal from Argentina to offset the drop in US raw soybeans. China halted imports of US farm products in August as trade talks broke down and President Trump ordered more tariffs on Chinese goods.

As fallout from the trade war hits the US and Chinese economies, pressure for a deal is rising.

Chinese officials welcomed Trump’s decision to postpone US tariffs, Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said at  a press briefing on Thursday. Gao noted that mid-level teams of trade negotiators will soon meet to prepare for higher level talks.

China has been struggling with a weak yuan, factory-price deflation and falling exports. Meanwhile, in the US, factory activity unexpectedly contracted in August for the first time in three years, highlighting the impact of slowing global growth and the trade war.

“Trump’s goodwill gesture suggests that the trade war is starting to bite and the US may be more eager to close a deal,” said Chua Hak Bin, an economist at Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. in Singapore. “The clock is ticking and Trump’s approval ratings are sliding, with manufacturing now in recession.”

Still, despite the latest round of goodwill gestures, the two sides remain far apart on fundamental issues: Beijing insists that the US must drop all trade war tariffs as part of any deal, while Washington is demanding concessions on IP and state subsidies that Beijing has so far refused.

WSJ reported Thursday morning that Beijing is hoping to narrow the scope of negotiations with the US to only focus on trade matters, and put thorny national security issues on a separate track. Senior Chinese officials hope this approach will offer a path out of the current impasse, before a team of mid-level Chinese officials heads to Washington next week to prepare for the next round of high-level talks.

Will these ‘goodwill’ gestures lead to a breakthrough toward a deal? Or will they prove to be the latest in a series of false starts as the trade war nears the 18th month mark?

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ECB

This was not what the European banks wanted to hear: got expected 10 basis point cut in interest rates.  They are to start open ended QE as well as easing TLTRO.  He also introduces tiering to help the beleaguered banks.

(zerohedge)

Draghi Goes All Out: ECB Cuts Rates, Restarts Open-Ended QE, Changes Forward Guidance, Eases TLTRO, Introduces Tiering

With the market worried that Mario Draghi could surprise hawkishly in his parting announcement…

… that is how the market initially interpreted today’s ECB announcement, which cut already negative deposit rates by a smaller than expected 10bps to -0.50% while restarting QE but by “only” €20 billion, less than the €30 billion baseline.

However, there was more than enough offsetting dovish ammo because while the restarted QE (or the Asset Purchase Program) was smaller than expected, it will be open-ended, and the ECB will run it “for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of its policy rates, and to end shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates.”

 

Additionally, the ECB dropped calendar-based forward guidance and replaced it with inflation-linked guidance, noting that key ECB interest rates will “remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon.” Furthermore, the ECB eased TLTRO terms, with banks whose eligible net lending exceeds a benchmark, the rate applied in TLTRO III operations will be lower, and can be as low as the average interest rate on the deposit facility prevailing over the life of the operation; additionally, the maturity of the operations will be extended from two to three years.

Finally, as many expected, the ECB will introduce a two-tier system for reserve remuneration in which part of banks’ holdings of excess liquidity will be exempt from the negative deposit facility rate, in an attempt to mitigate the adverse impact to banks.

In short: a somewhat hawkish read on the rate cut and QE amount, but dovish on every other parameter, from the forward-guidance, to the open-ended QE, to the TLTRO easing and to the two-tier system. This was reflected in markets, with the EURUSD first spiking the slumping…

… with the German bund following suit as the market realized the ECB was far more dovish than the kneejerk reaction suggested:

… with Italian yields tumbling to a record low of 0.783.

The full ECB press release is below:

At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB took the following monetary policy decisions:

(1) The interest rate on the deposit facility will be decreased by 10 basis points to -0.50%. The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the rate on the marginal lending facility will remain unchanged at their current levels of 0.00% and 0.25% respectively. The Governing Council now expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics.

(2) Net purchases will be restarted under the Governing Council’s asset purchase programme (APP) at a monthly pace of €20 billion as from 1 November. The Governing Council expects them to run for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of its policy rates, and to end shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates.

(3) Reinvestments of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP will continue, in full, for an extended period of time past the date when the Governing Council starts raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.

(4) The modalities of the new series of quarterly targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) will be changed to preserve favourable bank lending conditions, ensure the smooth transmission of monetary policy and further support the accommodative stance of monetary policy. The interest rate in each operation will now be set at the level of the average rate applied in the Eurosystem’s main refinancing operations over the life of the respective TLTRO. For banks whose eligible net lending exceeds a benchmark, the rate applied in TLTRO III operations will be lower, and can be as low as the average interest rate on the deposit facility prevailing over the life of the operation. The maturity of the operations will be extended from two to three years.

(5) In order to support the bank-based transmission of monetary policy, a two-tier system for reserve remuneration will be introduced, in which part of banks’ holdings of excess liquidity will be exempt from the negative deposit facility rate.

And now we prepare for the ECB press conference in 30 minutes.

end
And the jawboning commences: Trump praises the ECB for “depreciating the Euro” as they slam the Fed for doing absolutely nothing
(zerohedge)

Trump Praises ECB For “Depreciating The Euro”, Slams The Fed For Doing Nothing

When discussing the barrage of easing unleashed by the ECB moments ago, we said that as “we prepare for the ECB press conference in 30 minutes, that will be nothing compared to the angry twitter tirade we expect by president Trump who will demand that Powell immediately match everything that Powell has done.

And sure enough, just about half an hour after the ECB announcement, Trump praised the European Central Bank, for “acting quickly, Cuts Rates 10 Basis Points. They are trying, and succeeding, in depreciating the Euro against the VERY strong Dollar, hurting U.S. exports….” And, as expected, the president lashed out at the Fed again, saying that “the Fed sits, and sits, and sits. They get paid to borrow money, while we are paying interest!”

Of course, for a real-estate developer, negative rates is a beautiful prospect, and all Trump has to do to get negative rates in the US is to match the European recession in the US next. At that point the Fed should cut rates to zero, or negative, while sending the S&P to nosebleed levels, even as the US economy collapses.

end

This is important.  The ECB is has been stating QE to infinity but the problem is the stronger northern nations as Draghi will have only 12 months of bonds to purchase because of their set rules.  He can buy only 5 months of Finnish bonds.

(zerohedge)

“So Much For Infinity QE”: Draghi Fumbles As Market Realizes ECB Can Only Do QE For 12 Months

While on the surface today’s ECB announcement was underwhelming, with both the size of the rate cut (-0.10%) and the amount of QE (€20BN), coming in well below what was already priced in, the biggest saving grace in Mario Draghi’s “swan song” conference was that the newly restarted QE would be, in the words of the ECB, open-ended. Which is great in theory, but a disaster in principal for the bond-constrained Europe.

Sure enough, with one of the most pressing questions at today’s ECB press conference being just what the open-ended nature of QE means for the ECB’s existing 33% issuer purchase limits, Draghi was laconic: the ECB president admitted there was “no appetite to discuss bond buying limits” instead merely saying that “we have relevant headroom to go on at quite a long time at this rhythm without the need to raise the discussion about limits”, which translates roughly as “I am punting this most critical topic to Christine Lagarde.”

Because while Draghi may be leaving the ECB by implementing what some have called QEternity, the reality is far more problematic, and unless the ECB charter is changed to raise issuer limits to 50% or more – in the process informing the hyperinflation sensitive Germans that half of its bonds will have to be monetized – the open-ended QE will be very limited, and that limit will be reached very soon.

How soon?

Here opinions differ slightly, but converge on roughly 12 months of possible QE under the current limits.

According to Pictet’s Frederik Ducrozet, at the proposed €20bn/month in QE, and assuming a split of €5bn in corporate bonds and the balance in sovereign, QE can run for roughly 9 months under current limits.

 

Separately, Danske Bank’s strategist Peter Sorensen said that according to his calculations, the ECB can buy German bonds under its fresh €20b per month program for about 14 months. Here, Italy has the most most months left, at 87 while France, and Spain have 57 months and 25 months respectively. On the other end, Finland will have only five months of buying before limits reached while Slovakia has already hit the buffers.

Finally, Credit Agricole’s Valentin Marinov was even less subtle: the FX strategiust pointed out the same thing we did, namely that “Draghi indicated that there was no discussion of raising the issuer limit as a way to boost the size of the pool of assets available to buy under QE.” The problem: this will limit the duration of QE at 20 billion euros to between just six to 12 months, according to Credit Agricole estimates.

“So much for the infinity QE. Assuming that the capital key is sacrosanct, they cannot boost the size of their balance sheet in a meaningful way without an increase in the issuer limit.”

His conclusion is that “this could put a base under the euro for now” and sure enough, upon realizing that open-ended QE is just a myth, the EURUSD has not only recovered all losses but is now up for the day!

END

looks like we have our good ol’ fashioned “Mutiny on the Bounty’ as European’s top central bankers dissented over new QE

(zerohedge)

Draghi Lied Again: In “Unprecedented Revolt”, Europe’s Top Central Bankers Dissented Over QE

To push through QE and to preserve his legacy, Mario Draghi just started the countdown on central banking.

Apparently ripping a page out of Jean-Claude Juncker’s play book – “When it’s serious, you have to lie” – outgoing ECB President appears to have been caught in a big fat fib.

In his grand finale press conference today, Draghi unleashed QEternity (albeit with the limits we have noted), proudly proclaiming that “there was no need to vote” because there was “full agreement on the need to act” and a “significant majority” were for QE.

When pressed by a reporter, he further refused to detail who dissented – apparently signaling that it was as good as consensus as it could be.

There was more diversity of views on APP. But then, in the end, a consensus was so broad there was no need to take a vote. So the decision in the end showed a very broad consensus.

As I said, there was no need to take a vote. There was such a clear majority.”

It turns out – he lied (just as he lied to Zero Hedge when he said there was no Plan B over Greece… when there was).

Bloomberg is reporting that in an “unprecedented revolt”, ECB governors representing the top European economies defied Mario Draghi’s ultimately successful bid to restart quantitative easing, according to officials with knowledge of the matter.

The unprecedented revolt took place during a fractious meeting where Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau joined more traditional hawks including his Dutch colleague Klaas Knot and Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann in pressing against an immediate resumption of bond purchases, the people said. They spoke on condition of anonymity, because such discussions are confidential.

Those three governors alone represent roughly half of the euro region as measured by economic output and population. Other dissenters included, but weren’t limited, to their colleagues from Austria and Estonia, as well as members on the ECB’s Executive Board including Sabine Lautenschlaeger and the markets chief, Benoit Coeure, the officials said.

Indeed, as Reuters adds, the QE motion was actually passed with a “relatively narrow majority” which explains why Draghi refused to take a vote as it would show that only Europe’s B and C grade nations – such as Italy, Spain, Portugal, Estonia, Malta and Cyprus – were for a restart in debt monetization.

As Bloomberg concludes, such disagreement over a major monetary policy measure has never been seen during Draghi’s eight-year tenure.

As Bloomberg adds, “Draghi’s decision to press ahead without such key support risks leaving Lagarde with a headache when she starts in November. She will need to decide whether to persist in a policy that has divided her Governing Council, risking further acrimony.”

The alternative would be to dial back the ECB’s current stimulus commitments, an approach that could provoke a market backlash.

Good luck dealing with that mutiny Christine!

ITALY

Rome asks for more time trying to tackle its huge debt at 135% of GDP. Brussels does not want to start a war with Italy as Conte is friendly to the European ways.

(zerohedge)

Rome Needs “A Little Bit More Time” To Reduce Italy’s Debt, Conte Tells Brussels

In his first comments to Brussels since being sworn in to his second act as prime minister, Italy’s Giuseppe Conte, who is now leading a coalition of the Democratic Party and the anti-establishment Five-Star Movement, told the incoming president of the European Commission that Italy would need “a little bit of time” to cut its debt.

According to the FT, Conte told Urusla von der Leyen, the incoming head of the commission, that Italy wouldn’t “risk financial stability” – i.e., risk triggering another bond-market-rattling showdown with Brussels by insisting on blowing out its federal budget deficit – but that the country would need to make investments that set it back on the path toward economic growth.

“We must make investments that allow us to direct growth towards greater employment, and we want to make a transparent pact with the EU on what is our programme,” Mr Conte said. Our objective is the reduction of debt,” he said. “We are not saying that we do not want our accounts in order, but we want to do it through a reasonable growth and productive investments.”

There’s a chance that Brussels might prove more receptive this time around (last year, the showdown between the anti-establishment coalition and Brussels reignited speculation about the possibility that Italy might leave the euro). Brussels eventually caved and allowed Italy to pursue a number close to its original request of around 2% of GDP. Though it was later revealed that the country’s estimates were way off, and that its budget deficit would like be much larger than anticipated.

Conte and outgoing European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker

For one, the new coalition has already been rattled by internal conflict that has prompted some analysts to speculate about a possible election later this year.

But Conte’s relationships with several key figures in Brussels should help negotiations go more smoothly.

Expectations that public spending negotiations between Rome and Brussels will be smoother this autumn – when the Italian budget for next year is drawn up – were boosted by the appointment of Roberto Gualtieri, a veteran member of the European Parliament, as Italy’s new economy minister. Another Italian, Paolo Gentiloni, a former prime minister and foreign minister, was this week nominated as Brussels’ new European Commissioner for the economy by Ms von der Leyen.

Last year, Italy’s ruling coalition was threatened with sanctions by the commission. But with Germany reportedly considering a “shadow budget” – fiscal stimulus that many analysts believe would help right-size the European economy, it’s likely that the Commission won’t risk doing anything that could further destabilize the bloc’s third-largest economy.

END

Negative rates has totally destroyed savings for Germans.  Remember when you have savings you have investment. This policy has hurt all European banks badly as they refuse to lend and no investment occurs as their economy continues to falter.  Mish comments at the end of the commentary…

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

 

Questioning Lagarde As Gross Interest Income In Germany Heads Towards Zero

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Thanks to negative interest rates, Germans’ interest income has plunged towards zero.

Counterproductive Interest Rate Policy

Eric Dor, Director of Economic Studies at the IESEG School of Management in Paris emailed an article with some interesting charts regarding the Counterproductive Interest Rate Policy of the ECB.

What follows is a guest post by Dor, with my comments at the end. I added or changed some subtitles.

Collapse of Interest Income in Germany

The extremely accommodating monetary policy of the ECB has had huge redistributive consequences. The disposable income of savers has been hit by the collapse of the average return on their accumulated wealth invested in interest products. Low interest rates have benefited borrowers. By boosting asset prices, the decline of interest rates has also favoured the small segment of wealthy households who own securities, potentially increasing inequality.

ECB Monetary Policy

The ECB has used various instruments to push down market and bank interest rates in the euro area. The instruments used by the ECB are its traditional key interest rates, hereafter summarized by the deposit facility interest rate, recent unconventional tools like massive asset purchases known as QE, and forward guidance about the expected path of its policy. All these instruments have a decisive impact on market short term and long term interest rates, as shown on the following chart.

Money Lost and Gained

It is interesting to compute what German savers have lost by comparing their effective interest income to a hypothetical situation where they would have remained at their level of 2012. It is easily computed by adding up the difference between effective gross interest income and their level of 2012.

The monetary policy conducted after 2012 has implied a cumulative loss of gross interest income of euro 158 billion for German households until 2019.

Of course, the monetary policy has benefited German borrowing households. After 2012 and until 2019, German borrowing households “saved” a cumulative 99 billion of interest expenses. It is computed by adding up, for all the years after 2012, the difference between effective interest expenses and their initial level.

The net result is a loss of euro 58 billion to German households.

Counterproductive Policy

The ECB has been engineering an overall decrease of interest rates hoping that cheap credit opportunities would lead households and companies to increase their spending. The problem is that this policy may lead to the opposite result, if households decide to offset declining returns on savings by saving more.

Evidence shows that it is what happens in Germany. The saving rate of households has been continuously increasing since 2014.

German Savings Rate

Banks Harmed

Low or negative interest rates are also decreasing the net interest income of banks. It threatens their profitability perhaps decreasing their supply of loans to the private sector.

End Dor Article

On August 30, I commented Lagarde Praises Negative Rates, Study Shows They Reduce Lending

This common-sense report by Dor also strongly disputes Lagarde’s view.

Twilight Zone

Mike Mish Shedlock@MishGEA

There is something about this statement that strikes me as Twilight Zone material

“10y yields jump to -0.59%” https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1171096104945049600 

Holger Zschaepitz@Schuldensuehner

Ouch! Global bonds selloff continues w/ German 10y yields jump to -0.59% and 10y US Treasury yields rise to 1.62% as investors weighed up strong data from #Germany and signs of stimulus measures in major economies alongside latest #Brexit developments.

View image on Twitter

Fed vs ECB

Whereas the Fed bailed out US banks by paying interest on excess reserves, the ECB charged banks interest on excess reserves draining bank profits.

Negative interest rates unquestionably hurt EU banks and there is no evidence of Lagarde’s proposed counter-benefits.

A European banking crisis awaits.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY

You really cannot trust any data coming from Turkey.  They claim that inflation is down to just 15% but that is very doubtful.  It is probably much higher.  The lira is now the big carry trade

(zerohedge)

Turkish Lira Surges After Central Bank Cuts Rates More Than Expected

While the Turkish lira’s status as the world’s favorite carry currency is disappearing with every central bank rate cut, today’s news that the CBRT cut rates by a more than expected 325bps from 19.75% to 16.5% (consensus expected a 17.25%), although less than the whispered 500bps (following Erdogan’s warning that a major rate cut was coming), and down from a recent high of 24%…

… was enough to send the USDTRY tumbling – at least in initial kneejerk reaction – from 5.75 to 5.6830, after the central bank forecast inflation dropping beneath its July forecasts therefore expecting it to get back to target quicker than previously and signalling a normalizing economy following last years lira crisis.

While the rate cut was greater than expected, with Turkey’s inflation now surprisingly running far slower than most had expected in recent months, at just 15%, the real rate is still a solid 1.5%, even if it moves Turkey toward the end of the pack of major EMs in terms of real rates. Of course, how much the inflationary print is accurate, and whether any of the underlying economic assumptions reflect reality in Turkey rather than just what Erdogan wants – and just like Trump, Erdogan wants much lower rates reality be damned – is a different matter entirely.

 

The CBRT also saw inflation beneath July forecasts and said that keeping the disinflation process on track with the target path requires the continuation of a cautious monetary policy stance.

The central bank also said that the extent of monetary tightness will be dependent on underlying inflation – which just like in the US it is no longer seeing – and noted that the improvement in inflation expectations and mild domestic conditions support disinflation in core indicators.

Some more details from the full press release:

“In addition to the stable course of the Turkish lira, improvement in inflation expectations and mild domestic demand conditions supported the disinflation in core indicators. In August, consumer inflation displayed a significant fall with the contribution of core goods, energy and food groups. Domestic demand conditions and the level of monetary tightness continue to support disinflation. Underlying trend indicators, supply side factors, and import prices lead to an improvement in the inflation outlook. In light of these developments, recent forecast revisions suggest that inflation is likely to materialize slightly below the projections of the July Inflation Report by the end of the year. Accordingly, considering all the factors affecting inflation outlook, the Committee decided to reduce the policy rate by 325 basis points. At this point, the current monetary policy stance, to a large part, is considered to be consistent with the projected disinflation path.”

In kneejerk response, the Turkish Lira, now yielding over 3% less against its FX pair surged, although these initial reactions tends to be unwound once the investing public, or in this case Mrs Watanabe, reads between the CBRT’s lines.

END

6.Global Issues

Graham Summers correctly points out that momentum stocks or the leaders of the Dow/Nasdaq are faltering  and this is a harbinger of things to come to the rest of the market

(Graham Summers)

The Momo Crash Will Soon Spread to the Rest of the Markets

The markets are now entering a period of increased volatility.

 

You wouldn’t know it based on the fact the S&P 500 is near all-time highs. But underneath the surface the momentum stocks that lead during this recent rally are imploding.

 

Wall Street darling Shopify is down 18% in the last two weeks

 

 

Service now, another momo favorite is down 16%.

 

 

Etc.

 

The point is that while the broader indexes are holding up, the market leaders are collapsing. We expect this to continue as stocks finish filling out the topping pattern we’ve been tracking for the last four months.

 

After that comes the big breakdown. We’ve triggered more crash signals than at any time in the last 10 years. These were the same signals that went off right at the end of 2007 before the Great Financial Crisis of 2008.

The below chart should serve as a warning to everyone. This rally is MASSIVE TRAP, because once a bull market trendline is broken, it’s GAME OVER.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

GRAHAM

7. OIL ISSUES

We now witness employment in the shale oil and gas sector tumble..Here is the data on that:

(zerohedge)

Shale Boom Cools As Employment In Oil And Gas Jobs Tumbles

The US economy is rapidly deteriorating and currently experiencing a growth rate cycle downturn in employment, industrials, and inflation. One reason for the slowdown could be due to the oil and gas industry.

Reuters reports oil and gas employment has declined as producers and service firms quickly cut back on operations due to a sharp decline in spot prices since 4Q18.

Mining support activity jobs, a category that includes oil and gas drilling, as well as site preparation and well completion services, have been trending lower since Oct. 2018.

Latest figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show Aug. employment fell 2% YoY, and down 4% from the peak.

About 11,000 oil and gas jobs have been slashed from the prior year. These jobs were mostly in the “oil and gas support activities.”

As shown in a series of charts provided by John Kemp, senior market analyst of commodities at Reuters, the shale boom is cooling, and weakness will persist through 2020.

The first chart shows US employment in mining activities, peaked on Oct. 2018 and has been trending lower ever since. 

The percentage change of US employment in mining activities on a monthly and 3-month average shows negative growth in employment is imminent. 

Diving deeper into the employment story, US employment in oil and gas support activities, which includes site work, casing, tubing, cementing, fracking, and acidizing appear to have stalled as well.

Growth rates from the prior year on a monthly and three-month average show support activity jobs have rapidly declined since the summer of 2018.

And maybe the decline in oil and gas jobs is due to the plunge in the number of drilling rigs, which also started falling in late 2018.

Meanwhile, US crude production has hit record levels with more than 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd).

Crude production percent change from the prior year, monthly and three-month averages tell a different story, one where the growth in production is slowing.

Kemp shows another chart where he expects the growth in oil production to continue falling through 2020, a reflection of a slowing economy and depressed spot prices for crude. 

Crude prices have remained depressed for 49-weeks, and since it usually takes 3 to 4 months of declining prices to translate into a drop in rig counts, it’s likely that more rigs will be brought offline through 2H19. This will ultimately slow employment in the industry and could be disastrous for President Trump in the 2020 election year, who routinely touts the oil patch as his economic success.

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1027 UP .0014 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.86 DOWN 0.154 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2327   DOWN   0.0008  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3184 UP .0001 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 22.42 POINTS OR 0.75% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 71.43 POINTS OR 0.26%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,42%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 71.43 POINTS OR 0.26%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.42 POINTS OR 0.75%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 20% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 161.85  POINTS OR 0.75%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1503.30

silver:$18.20-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.72% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.20 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 98.53 DOWN 11 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.24% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.22%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.22%//DOWN 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:87 DOWN 10 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 65 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.52% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.46% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1067  UP     .0054 or 54 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.98 DOWN .034 OR YEN UP 3  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2353 UP .0019 POUND UP 19  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 22 basis points to 1.3207

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0794    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0604  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.6674 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.22%

 

Your closing 10 yr USA  bond yield yield UP 3 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.77 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.24 UP 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.32 DOWN 32  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 6.64  0.09%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 51.18 POINTS OR .41%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 24.80 POINTS 0.44%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 22.80 POINTS or 0253%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 191.60 POINTS OR 0.88%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 54.69 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 59.77 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    64.76  THE CROSS LOW BY 0.74 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 74 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.52 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  55.05//

 

 

BRENT :  60.41

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.78… up 5 pts

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.27  up 5 points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1065 ( UP 52   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.12 UP .106 (YEN DOWN 11 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.37 DOWN 28 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2337 UP 3  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.6612

 

 

the Russian rouble 66.12   UP 0.75 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 75 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3216 DOWN 32 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0794  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0679 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.52%

 

The Dow closed UP 45.41 POINTS OR 0.17%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 24.79 POINTS OR 0.30%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  14.22 CLOSED DOWN .39

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.127%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Momo Meltdown Stalls As Stocks Jump On Draghi And Trump

Global equity, FX, and bond markets are trading like penny stocks once again as central bank promises, leaks, and actions combine with US and China trade negotiators’ promises, leaks, and actions spark panic-buying – and manic-selling – each and every day. Add to that the biggest quant quake in a decade and “things just went just a little bit slightly turbo” today…

For the first time in a month, offshore yuan traded above its fix

Source: Bloomberg

But intraday it was chaos…

Source: Bloomberg

Chinese stocks lifted on the tit-for-tat de-escalation in trade rhetoric…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks were also chaotic as Draghi unveiled his grade finale bazooka…

Source: Bloomberg

US Futures show the fun and games best as Trump delayed tariffs soon after the close, China reciprocated on soybeans, Draghi disappointed, rumors of an interim trade deal were then quickly “absolutely” denied…

NOTE – futures tested the initial tariff delay spike 7 times (and failed)

On the cash side, the short-squeeze stalled early on, Trannies ended red as Small Caps played catch-up in the afternoon but tumbled back into the fed at the close…

NOTE – for a change, some weakness into the close

US equity markets are back within spitting distance of all-time record highs (S&P 3025.86 and Dow 27359 closing high)…

 

The meltdown in momentum stalled today – the best day for the momo factor since August 1st!

Source: Bloomberg

“Most Shorted” stocks trod water today as the squeezers appear to have run out of ammo…

Source: Bloomberg

No Smiles for Smile Direct Club as its ugly IPO flopped…

 

VIX traded with a 13 handle intraday…

 

Treasury yields ended higher across the curve (for the 7th day in a row) by around 5bps with massive intraday swings…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields plunged 10bps before surging 14bps amid various headlines (note that 30Y ignored the denial of the interim trade deal)…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve continued to steepen, but 3m10Y remains notably inverted…

Source: Bloomberg

A chaotic day in FX land too as Draghi promises and White House denials pumped and dumped and pumped the euro and the dollar. The dollar ended the day lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Draghi dud…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos rallied on the day with Bitcoin getting back to even on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin tested $10k a few times and bounced today…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil tumbled overnight – despite all the exuberance over a potential trade deal, PMs pumped and dumped around Draghi…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI tested all the way down to $54.00 before bouncing…

 

Gold spiked up to $1530 before fading back, but still ended higher… (silver ended lower)

 

Meanwhile, the price of gold in Euros hit a record high…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that amid record high stocks, potential trade deal de-escalation, hotter than expected inflation, and soaring macro surprise data; the market is rapidly pricing out the most extreme view of Fed easing…

The last week has seen the market shift from pricing in 2.7 rate-cuts to just 2 now.

Source: Bloomberg

And then there’s Draghi who just promised to more of what’s not worked for a decade to fix everything…

Source: Bloomberg

end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

Draghi Shoots A Dud – Euro, Bunds Reverse All ECB Moves

For a few brief minutes it was all going Draghi’s way.

Unleashing lower rates and QE4EVA sparked buying of bunds and selling of the Euro – mission accomplished.

But then the market decided to steal the jam out of Mario’s farewell performance and reverse those moves entirely…

The euro is suddenly surging…

 

Source: Bloomberg

And 10Y Bund yields are soaring…

 

Source: Bloomberg

“…you’re gonna need a bigger boat…”

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/LATE MORNING

PURE NONSENSE

(zerohedge)

Stocks Soar On Report Trump Advisors Consider “Interim China Deal” To Delay Tariffs

With the ECB bazooka turning out to be a water pistol, the onus on getting stocks in the green was back on the Trump administration, and some new source of “optimism” on a trade deal with China. And miraculously, with the market sliding red, that’s precisely what Bloomberg delivered with a report that Trump admin officials “have discussed offering a limited trade agreement to China that would delay and even roll back some U.S. tariffs for the first time in exchange for Chinese commitments on intellectual property and agricultural purchases.”

While the report, sourced to five unnamed “people familiar with the matter” did not say if China would agree to commitments on intellectual property – because it won’t, or at best it will promise to comply but then resume stealing US tech – it noted that Trump’s top trade advisers in recent days have discussed the plan in preparation for two rounds of face-to-face negotiations with Chinese officials in Washington, due to take place in coming weeks.

Oh, and just in case the market reaction is a total dud, the plan is so preliminary that “Trump has yet to sign off on it.”

Luckily, for now the plan to boost stocks is working, and US stocks are surging…

… as is the Yuan, which is trading at new session highs:

Some more details from the report: according to Bloomberg, the effective temporary ceasefire proposal would also be an interim deal, which would freeze the conflict, rather than bring a final resolution to a trade war that has cast a shadow over the global economy.

In short: the whole point of the report is to push stocks higher, while the trade war is deferred until Trump’s reelection, with the market supposedly hitting new all time highs around Nov 2020 allowing Trump to extend his term for another 4 years.

Besides the usual stock market considerations, why would Trump seek to capitulate now?

Well, for one, the plan reflects concerns within the White House over the recent escalation in tariffs and their economic impact on the U.S. going into an election year. Polls show the trade war is not popular with many voters and farmers are increasingly angry over depressed commodity prices.

This means that a key goal of the delay is to strike a deal that would allow the administration to avoid going ahead with more tariffs in December that would hit consumer products ranging from smartphones to toys and laptop computers. Also in play is a further delay in a tariff-rate hike due to take effect in October.

Late Wednesday, Trump tweeted that he was putting off the 5% increase in tariffs on Chinese goods, originally set to take effect the first day of next month until Oct. 15 — out of respect for the celebration of the 70th anniversary on Oct. 1 of the revolution that brought the communist government to power.

And while this is all fine and good, the flipside is that a trade deal now would all but crush any hopes for aggressive rate cuts by the Fed, and sure enough, the number of rate cuts by year ends is suddenly sliding.

At the end of the day, traders have to pick their poison: stocks up on trade war prompting more recession fears and rate cuts by the Fed, or stocks up on the end of trade war and economic “green shoots.” The good news is that, for whatever reason, stocks are up right now. Whether this persists is a different question.

end

ii)Market data/USA

A mixed bag:  core consumer prices surge although headline CPI rising less than expected.  Now what will Powell do next week..will he lower rates and accommodate Trump or get him angry and stay pat.
(zerohedge)

Core Consumer Prices Surge At Fastest Rate Since 2008

After a hotter-than-expected producer price print yesterday, consumer prices were more mixed with headline CPI rising less than expected and core CPI rising more than expected.

In fact, core CPI rose 2.4% YoY (2.3% exp) – which is the hottest since September 2008…

Source: Bloomberg

Energy prices weighed the index down as commodity prices rose…

 

The surge in inflation was led by a jump in Goods prices…

Source: Bloomberg

 

On the brighter side, shelter/rent inflation slowed a little in August…

So hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI must be transitory, right? Or Powell won’t be able to deliver what Trump and the market demand?

end
Usually Sept. produces a positive income flow.  However as he indicated to you yesterday, the USA for the first time will have a budgetary deficit greater than one trillion dollars and that number does not include deficits for auto loans and student loans
(zerohedge)

US Budget Deficit Hits $1 Trillion With One More Month Left In The Fiscal Year

The fiscal year that started on Oct 1, 2018, is now in its final month, and yet according to the US Treasury, in the first 11 months of the fiscal year, the US Treasury has already accumulated  more than $1 trillion budget deficit.

According to the latest budget data, In August, receipts rose 4% y/y to $228.0b in Aug, which however were dwarfed by $428.3 billion in outlays (a 1.1% drop Y/Y). The result was that the August monthly deficit was $200.3 billion, in line with expectations, if fractionally smaller than the $214.1 billion deficit posted in August 2018.

The biggest source of income, at $106 billion was income tax, with social insurance second at $96 billion. On the outlays side, the government spent the most money on entitlements such as Social Security ($88BN) and Medicare ($85BN). It may come as a surprise to some that National Defense was only third at $64BN.

However, more concerning is that on a YTD basis, i.e., the first 11 months of the year, the deficit surged 19% to at $1067.2BN, up 19% compared to $898.1BN last year, with YTD receipts in 2019 up 3.5%, while outlays rose double that, or 7.0%. The August deficit surged despite the gentle nudge from customs duties, which jumped to $64 billion in the fiscal year-to-date from $36.7 billion a year earlier, reflecting the Trump administration’s tariffs on Chinese imports, steel and other goods. Even still, income from duties represents a small share of overall federal revenue.

This means that for the first time since 2011, the US budget deficit will surpass $1 trillion at some point during the fiscal year.

It’s not the end of the world yet though, as it’s likely the year-end deficit could narrow from a tax revenue bump. As the chart above shows, September, the last month of the fiscal year, typically produces a surplus because quarterly tax payments are due.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

This Challenger report of jobs is extremely important.  We are witnessing a record number of CEO’s leave their posts along with a growing corporate layoffs.  This should tell you in spades what is really going on the jobs market,

(Mish Shedlock/Challenger Christmas/Gray//)

CEOs Abandon Ship: Record 159 Chief Exec Exits In August As Overall Layoffs Surge

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Reports by Challenger, a global outplacement and business firm, shows record CEO churn and growing corporate layoffs.

Overall Layoffs a Growing Concern

The August Challenger report says 53,480 Announced Cuts Led by Tech, Trade Issues a Growing Concern

U.S.-based employers ramped up the pace of downsizing in August, as companies announced plans to cut 53,480 jobs from their payrolls. This is up 37.7% from July’s total of 38,845, according to the latest report on job cuts released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

August’s total is the fourth highest for job cuts this year, and marks the eighth consecutive time job cuts were higher than the corresponding month one year earlier. Last month’s total was the highest August total since 2009, when 76,456 cuts were recorded.

The August total is 39% higher than the 38,472 cuts announced in August 2018. So far this year, employers have announced plans to cut 423,312 jobs from their payrolls, up 36.2% from the 310,773 cuts in the first eight months of 2018. It is the highest eight-month total since 2015, when 434,554 cuts were announced.

“Employers are beginning to feel the effects of the trade war and imposed tariffs by the U.S. and China. In fact, trade difficulties were cited as the reason for over 10,000 job cuts in August,” said Andrew Challenger, Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

“We are continuing to see investor concerns shaking confidence in the market, and employers appear to be cutting workers in response to a slowdown in demand for their products and services,” he added.

Retail continues to lead all sectors in 2019 with 57,226 cuts, 2,059 of which occurred last month. That is 28% fewer cuts than the 79,478 announced in the same period last year. The Automotive sector has announced 36,148 cuts so far this year, the highest eight-month total since 2009, when 128,906 jobs were cut.

While job cuts are up in every region, companies located in the Southern United States have seen the largest jump in job cut announcements, as employers in this region have announced 53% more job cuts than through the same period last year: 90,337 compared to 58,964 in 2018. Companies in the Eastern United States had the second-largest percentage increase, with 46.6%, as employers in this region announced 119,689 cuts in 2019 compared to 81,616 last year

CEOs Abandon Ship

Via email from Challenger, 159 CEO Exits in August.

CHICAGO, September 11, 2019 – Increased churn continues at the chief executive position, as employers at U.S.-based companies announced 159 chief executive officer changes, the highest monthly total on record, according to a report released Wednesday by global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

Last month’s total was 28% higher than the 124 CEO exits announced in July. It is 3% higher than the 154 CEO changes announced in the same month last year, the previous highest monthly total. August marks the seventh time this year that CEO changes were higher than the corresponding month one year earlier.

So far this year, 1,009 chief executives have left their posts, 15% more than the 879 CEOs who left the top spot at companies through August 2018. It is the highest total of CEO exits in the first eight months of a year since Challenger began tracking in 2002.

Chief executives are leaving at a faster clip than even during the recession. In 2008, the next highest year for CEO turnover, 992 CEOs had announced their exits through August, 2% lower than the current year-to-date total.

“With growing uncertainty surrounding global business and market strength, the fact that so many companies are choosing this moment to find new leadership is no coincidence,” said Andrew Challenger, Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

Challenger tracks CEO changes at companies that have been in business for at least two years, with a minimum of ten employees.

CEO Exits By Sector

  • Companies in the Government/Non-Profit sector continue to lead all sectors in CEO exits with 218.
  • The Technology sector announced the second-highest number of CEO changes this year with 134, up 34% from the 99 who left their posts through August last year.
  • Health Care/Products companies and manufacturers have announced 83 CEO exits, down 2.3% from the 85 who announced their departures through August last year.
  • Industrial Goods manufacturers, who have been particularly hard hit with trade issues, regulations and deregulation, have announced 44 CEO changes in 2019, 132% higher than the 19 announced through the first eight months of 2018.
  • Meanwhile, Energy companies announced 43 CEO changes this year, up 139% from the 18 CEOs who left their posts in this industry through August last year.

Darn “Boneheads”

Layoffs up, CEOs quitting, jobs picture weakening.

Not to worry, this is the strongest economy ever.

Which of course is why Trump Calls Jerome Powell and the Fed “Naive Boneheads” for not cutting rates to zero or negative.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Lindsay Graham’s goal is to declassify everything including all the FISA warrant applications. This should bury the democrats.

(Sara Carter)

Lindsey Graham: My Goal Is To Declassify FISA Warrant Applications

Via SaraACarter.com,

“My goal is to explain to you and the American public how the system failed and make sure it never happens again,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham on ‘Hannity’ show on Wednesday night.

“We’re going to pursue this in a transparent fashion,” Graham said.

“We’re going to declassify as much as we can, including the FISA warrant applications.”

Graham said he will seek to release to the public as much information possible about former British spy Christopher Steele.

“I’m going to give you all the information that was in the system about how suspicious people were of Christopher Steele, how biased he was, [and] let you read it for yourself. Transparency and accountability is my goal,” he said.

“The system had a lot of notice about [Christopher Steele] bias,” Graham said.

“Mr. Durham will make a decision as to who to prosecute, if anyone,” he added, referencing John Durham, the federal prosecutor tasked by Attorney General William Barr with investigating the origins of the Russia probe.

end
Trump wins big as the Supreme Court overrules a California judge and grants asylum restrictions at the Southern border
(zerohedge)

Supreme Court Overrules California Judge; Grants Asylum Restrictions At Southern Border

The Supreme Court handed the Trump administration a big win Wednesday afternoon, after two injunctions against asylum restrictions were struck down. The ruling means that US Customs and Border Protection can immediately begin denying migrants asylum at the southern border if they haven’t first applied for safe haven in a “third country” while the greater legal battle over the issue plays out in the lower courts.

Dissenting from Wednesday’s decision were Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Sonia Sotomayor.

Steve Vladeck

@steve_vladeck

: grants stay of both July 24 and September 9 injunctions against Trump administration rule barring asylum from those who didn’t first apply in a “third country”; allows controversial policy to go into effect on a nationwide basis pending the government’s appeal.

View image on Twitter

San Francisco Federal Judge Jon Tigar issued a preliminary injunction in July blocking the policy after a coalition of migrant and civil rights groups represented by the American Civil Liberties Union challenged the rules in court, while the 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals narrowed Tigar’s injunction – relegating it to within the 9th Circuit’s jurisdiction. According to the Daily Wire‘s Kevin Daley, “That meant that the third-country transit bar could be applied to migrants intercepted in New Mexico or Texas, but not Arizona and California,” adding that “the 9th Circuit also said Tigar could reimpose a nationwide injunction if he made additional factual findings supporting such a move. Tigar did so and restored a nationwide injunction against the contested rule Monday.”

The ACLU styled Trump’s rules an “asylum ban” before the Supreme Court. The organization claims it violates two federal laws: the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) and the Administrative Procedure Act (APA).

The INA establishes a general rule that all-comers may apply for asylum, the ACLU argued. Though there are narrow circumstances in which asylum can be denied based on the availability of a third-party alternative, the ACLU believes those conditions are not met here. The plaintiffs also say the new rules should have been subject to a public notice and comment period. –Daily Wire

Approximately 350,000 asylum-seekers have been arrested year-to-date, hailing primarily from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras.

The case is No. 19A230 Barr v. East Bay Sanctuary Covenant.

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

The King Report September 12 2019 Issue 6090                                                                                Independent View of the News

ESUs fell early on Tuesday night but rallied sharply during the Nikkei’s 2nd Session.  ESUs hit their session high of 2987 just after midnight ET.  They then slid into the European open.  Traders bought the early dip in Europe and ESUs rallied 7 handles by the end of the first hour of trading.  A sudden reversal pushed ESUs 8 handles lower.  Mighty Mouth fomented a rally before the NYSE open.

 

@realDonaldTrump: The Federal Reserve should get our interest rates down to ZERO, or less, and we should then start to refinance our debt. INTEREST COST COULD BE BROUGHT WAY DOWN, while at the same time substantially lengthening the term. We have the great currency, power, and balance sheet. The USA should always be paying the lowest rate. No Inflation! It is only the naïveté of Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve that doesn’t allow us to do what other countries are already doing. A once in a lifetime opportunity that we are missing because of “Boneheads.”

Le Grande Orange is stupidly proposing that the Fed appropriate interest income from the masses to fund his grotesque fiscal spending that will abet this reelection.  If Trump thinks there is no inflation or he is trying to convince the masses of that risible notion, the ‘Bonehead’ in the above tweet is obvious.

@realDonaldTrump 2:24 PM · Sep 29, 2011The Fed’s reckless policies of low interest and flooding the market with dollars needs to be stopped or we will face record inflation.

@NorthmanTrader: It is an interesting inadvertent admission though: The US debt construct can’t handle normalized rates and is entirely dependent on cheap money.  Trump must know recession risk is high and hence is asking for a Fed bailout. And be clear: Cutting rates to zero would be a bailout.

US Public Debt to GDP ratio vs. S&P 500 Index – Bubble economy & stock market fueled by debt

Obviously, the key question that the above chart poses is: When will the debt bubble burst?

China Exempts Certain Products from Tariffs

China announced a range of U.S. goods to be exempted from 25% extra tariffs put in place last year, as the government seeks to ease the impact from the trade war without lifting charges on major agricultural items like soybeans and pork Pharmaceuticals and lubricant oil are among exclusions to levies on imports announced by the Ministry of Finance on its website on Wednesday…

    China’s tariff retaliation strategy to date has focused heavily on curbing trade of agricultural and manufactured goods produced in U.S. states key for President Donald Trump’s re-election chances…

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-exempts-certain-products-tariffs-055120292.html

We have repeatedly opined that China is playing a dangerous game with US food products.  The politics of food in Asia is very tricky.  The massive populations of China, India and Indonesia (and Japan relative to inhabitable/farmable land) demand that countries import large quantities of food.

US Core PPI increased 0.3% m/m in August and 2.3% y/y.  Headline PPI for August increased 0.1% m/m and 1.8% y/y.  Each measure is 0.1 more than expected.  Shipment for freight surged 4.8% m/m, a record for the data series that goes back to 2009.  Energy prices declined 2.5% m/m; food prices fell 0.6% m/m.

ESUs tumbled before and through the NYSE open, hitting 2974.75 at 9:34 ET.  Traders, of course, bought the opening dip. 14 minutes after the NYSE low was hit, ESU rallied 14 handles on DB’s prediction that the Fed will cut rates another 100bps ‘over the next several months’ and these WSJ headlines:

Trump Again Mulls Capital Gains Tax Cuts

Trump, advisers set to meet Wednesday to discuss indexing capital gains taxes to Inflation

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-again-mulls-capital-gains-tax-cuts-11568210829

Trump, Advisors to also focus on Broader Plan to Cut Taxes – WSJ

ESUs and stocks methodically rallied until that afternoon arrived.  Traders wanted to be long for Draghi; and the mounting indications of pending global fiscal stimuli. After the afternoon dip, the usual late ESU manipulation appeared.  The desire to be long for the expected ECB stimulus package pushed US stocks and ESUs to session highs.  Who is not long stocks and related derivatives for today?

Part of the scheme on Wednesday was the desire to close the S&P 500 Index above 3000.  The standard late ESU manipulation closed the S&P 500 Index at 3000.93.

Despite the ubiquitous reports of impending central bank largesse and fiscal stimuli, why didn’t stock experience a great rally?  Perhaps, the stench of solon desperation alarmed some investors and traders.

The Treasury auction of $24B of 10-year (actually 9-yr & 11months) notes was disappointing.  The yield is 1.739% vs. 1.736% WI.  The bid to cover ratio was 2.46 vs. 2.20 at the previous auction.  Non-comp bids were only $2.3m. Indirect bids (mostly central banks) were 62.6%; direct bids were 12.7%.

GM Strike Risk at 12-Year High with Weekend Deadline Approaching

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-11/gm-strike-risk-at-12-year-high-with-weekend-deadline-approaching

Positive aspects of previous session

A robust rally on hope of ECB QE & rates cuts; plus hype about US tax cuts

The best performing group was the (+1.4%) NY FANG+ Index gain due to trader buying for Draghi

The S&P 500 Index closed a tad above 3000

Negative aspects of previous session

The rally was largely traders getting long for today

Ambiguous aspects of previous session

Who isn’t long for Draghi/ECB?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]

First Hour Up; Last Hour Up

Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low3000.93; 2975.31

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend for traders]: 2992.39

BBG: U.S. Passive Stock Fund Assets [$2.4271T] Exceed Active [$4.246T] for First Time

  1. El-Erian @elerianm:Strongly-worded FT editorial on what ECB President Draghi “must deliver”  While I understand (but have concerns) why it’s pushing Draghi hard “to provide all the support he can,” am surprised that they rank tomorrow’s meeting “among the most important in his eight-year tenure”

Draghi must deliver his parting shot of stimulus

With external risks continuing to rise, caution could prove costly

    Mr Draghi must also convince markets that further easing of monetary policy will be effective, and that it will not leave the ECB at its limits. Tiering is key…

https://www.ft.com/content/0e375bbc-cfdd-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f

Today – Traders will respond to the ECB Communique and Draghi’s farewell press conference.  The market expects QE and a rate cut.  These ingredients have been baked into the market for weeks.  Ergo, the probability is high that a reversal could occur after the ECB and Draghi deliver the expected goodies.

The game for today will be to pump and dump stocks on any ECB stimulus package.  The goal is to push the S&P 500 Index to a new high and then feed any lemming buyers.

Among the universe of traders, only permabears have not bought stocks or derivatives for the assumed ECB stimuli.  Logically, there has to be a subset of traders that expects to sell stuff into a rally.  Will there be enough reactionary buyers to ECB largesse to absorb the traders that want to cash in their chips?

The final tranche of the Treasury auction, the 30-year bond, will occur.  Because the 3 and 10-year tranches had disappointing results, look for the old Street game of bidding down the final tranche and then gunning bonds after the Treasury announces the 30-year results.

Last night, ESUs jumped 18.00 on this: @realDonaldTrump: At the request of the Vice Premier of China, Liu He, and due to the fact that the People’s Republic of China will be celebrating their 70th Anniversary on October 1st, we have agreed, as a gesture of good will, to move the increased Tariffs on 250 Billion Dollars worth of goods (25% to 30%), from October 1st to October 15th.

 

Expected economic data: Aug CPI 0.1% m/m, 1.8% y/y; Core 0.2% m/m, 2.3% y/y; Initial Jobless Claims 215k, Continuing Claims1.675m; Aug Budget Statement -$195.0B

 

9/11 outrage: ‘The View’ host Whoopi Goldberg slams members of Congress who skipped moment of silence [Only 26% of Reps were present.]

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/the-view-whoopi-goldberg-9-11-congress

@DineshDSouza: In this now-deleted tweet, the New York Times attempts to blame 9/11 on the AIRPLANES that “took aim” and “brought down” the World Trade Center. What lengths they will go to divert attention from who actually did this! [“…Airplanes took aim and brought down the World Trade Center…more than 2000 people died”]   https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1171787237635383297/photo/1

Why would the NYT attempt to mitigate the WTC tragedy by posting “more than 2000 people died”, when about 3000 died?

Retired Intel Operative Tony Shaffer @T_S_P_O_O_K_Y: Every senior FBI and intelligence official who played a material role in the 9/11 failures was promoted and protected – resulting (as we know now) to prompt other failures and political use of Intelligence… this cannot be permitted to continue…

 

Never Forget How U.S. Intelligence Failed You

Brennan routinely ignored calls from his colleagues to pressure his Saudi counterparts to hand over more information on bin Laden and the rising al-Qaeda terrorist network in the 1990s

    When the Clinton Administration considered using force either to kill or capture bin Laden in the 1990s, Brennan led the effort to stop it… Of course, it did not help that Clinton’s own CIA director, George Tenet, backed Brennan’s opposition to the proposed bin Laden raid… https://amgreatness.com/2019/09/10/never-forget-how-u-s-intelligence-failed-you/#.XXj7Ml3QEak.twitter

 

‘The Attacks Will Be Spectacular’

An exclusive look at how the Bush administration ignored this warning from the CIA months before 9/11, along with others that were far more detailed than previously revealed.

 “Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S.” The CIA’s famous Presidential Daily Brief, presented to George W. Bush on August 6, 2001, has always been Exhibit A in the case that his administration shrugged off warnings of an Al Qaeda attack… Tenet also wrote about it in general terms in his 2007 memoir At the Center of the Storm…

    That morning of July 10, the head of the agency’s Al Qaeda unit, Richard Blee, burst into Black’s office. “And he says, ‘Chief, this is it. Roof’s fallen in,’” recounts Black… Tenet picked up the white phone to Bush’s National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice… “Rich [Blee] started by saying, ‘There will be significant terrorist attacks against the United States in the coming weeks or months. The attacks will be spectacular. They may be multiple. Al Qaeda’s intention is the destruction of the United States.’” [Condi said:] ‘What do you think we need to do?’ Black responded by slamming his fist on the table, and saying, ‘We need to go on a wartime footing now!’”… “And I’ll never forget this until the day I die. Rich Blee looked at everybody and said, ‘They’re coming here.’”…   https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/11/cia-directors-documentary-911-bush-213353

 

As August went on, Tenet was so agitated by the chatter he was picking up and Bush’s lack of attention to the matter that he arranged for another CIA briefing of the president later in August, with Bush still at his ranch, to try to get his attention to what Tenet believed was an impending danger. According to Ron Suskind, in the introduction to his book The One Percent Doctrine, when the CIA agents finished their briefing of the president in Crawford, the president said, “All right. You’ve covered your ass now.” And that was the end of it…  https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2015/10/21/bush-responsibility-twin-towers/

 

FBI Was Warned About Flight School

Two months before the suicide hijackings, an FBI agent in Arizona alerted Washington headquarters that several Middle Easterners were training at a U.S. aviation school and recommended contacting other schools nationwide where Arabs might be studying…

    AP reported last month that Filipino authorities alerted the FBI as early as 1995 that several Middle Eastern pilots were training at American flight schools and at least one had proposed hijacking a commercial jet and crashing it into federal buildings…

    A month after the 2001 memo from Arizona to FBI headquarters, FBI agents in Minnesota arrested a French citizen of Moroccan descent, Zacarias Moussaoui, after a flight school instructor became suspicious of his desire to learn to fly a commercial jet.  Moussaoui has since emerged as the single most important defendant in the post-Sept. 11 terrorism investigation, charged with conspiring with the hijackers and Osama bin Laden to kill thousands of Americans…

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fbi-was-warned-about-flight-schools/

 

The FBI’s Investigation of Zacarias Moussaoui

On May 21, 2002, Coleen Rowley, the Minneapolis FBI’s Chief Division Counsel (CDC), sent a letter to FBI Director Mueller in which she criticized FBI Headquarters for the way it had handled the Moussaoui case. Among other things, her letter disputed the way the FBI was describing its Moussaoui investigation, and she asserted that FBI Headquarters had prevented the Minneapolis FBI from seeking a criminal search warrant. In addition, she alleged that FBI Headquarters inappropriately failed to seek a FISA warrant

   Upon receipt of Rowley’s letter, Director Mueller referred it to the OIG and asked the OIG to conduct a review of the issues raised in the letter, the Phoenix EC, and other matters related to the FBI’s handling of intelligence information that was potentially related to the September 11 attacks…

    On August 24, Martin and Gary discussed the options for the Minneapolis FBI in pursuing a FISA warrant for Moussaoui. Martin asserted that the Moussaoui situation did not qualify as an emergency, which required information that an “imminent act of terrorism” was about to take place, and he added the FISA request lacked sufficient evidence of a connection to a known foreign power…

    On the morning of September 11, at 8:34 a.m. Eastern Standard Time, Martin sent an e-mail to Gary finalizing plans for Moussaoui’s deportation, which the FBI believed would occur within several days. Just 12 minutes later, the first hijacked airplane hit the north tower of the World Trade Center…

[The OIG report exonerated everyone.]    https://oig.justice.gov/special/s0606/chapter4.htm

Motion to Compel Brady Material Unsealed: Flynn Took Polygraph in 2016 And Passed

List Of Brady Material Requested By Powell

 A letter delivered by the British Embassy to the incoming National Security team after Donald Trump’s election, and to outgoing National Security Advisor Susan Rice (the letter apparently disavows former British Secret Service Agent Christopher Steele, calls his credibility into question, and declares him untrustworthy)… [Many more documents]

https://saraacarter.com/motion-to-compel-brady-material-unsealed-flynn-took-polygraph-in-2016-and-passed/

 

@BreitbartNews: Actress and gun control activist Alyssa Milano revealed she has two guns in her home for self-defense. “I have two guns in my household for self-defense,” said Alyssa Milano.

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: