SEPT 13//7TH DAY IN A ROW FOR A RAID//GOLD DOWN $7.75 TO $1492.25//SILVER DOWN 57 CENTS TO $17.53 //NOW ALMOST 42 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX AND YET NO REMOVALS FROM REGISTERED SILVER//THE BIG NEWS OF THE DAY: THE NO 1 HEAD TRADER AND NO 2 HEAD GOLD AND SILVER TRADER, NOWAK AND GREG SMITH HAVE BEEN RELIEVED OF THEIR DUTIES AT JPMORGAN PENDING THE OUTCOME OF THE PRECIOUS METALS PROBE//THIS IS BIG!!//

GOLD$1492.25 DOWN $7.75 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.53 DOWN 57 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1488.00

 

silver:  $17.46

It is important to understand that we are dealing with official sector raids with their dirty work accomplished by the banks. The front running by banks is minimal as they know this will ultimately fail.

The problem the official sector has is only one:  they are offering ( short selling) massive paper contracts and their hope is that nobody is in the wings picking up that paper and tendering it for metal.

 

Friday is a good day for the bankers /official sector) to raid as nobody can tender on Saturday.  However their worries become real on Monday.  Ted Butler and others are talking about a “whale” who is purchasing vast amounts of physical silver and some are commenting that we have many turning their paper gold into real physical.

 

At the comex, we see first hand that we have some entities demanding physical in ever increasing quantities.  This month will be a record for physical silver standing at close to 42 million oz.

A commercial failure can occur either at the Comex or in London when  suppliers of paper can no longer serve upon our waiting longs.

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 1/6

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,498.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/12/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 09/16/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
661 C JP MORGAN 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 3
905 C ADM 6
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 6 6
MONTH TO DATE: 1,723

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT CONTRACT: 6 NOTICE(S) FOR 600 OZ (0.0186 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1723 NOTICES FOR 172300 OZ  (5.359 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR SEPT

 

 

203 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1,155,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 8102 for   40,510,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10286 DOWN 123 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10210 DOWN 207

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A GOOD  SIZED 494 CONTRACTS FROM 217,690 UP TO 218,184 DESPITE THE 0 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

 FOR SEPT 0, FOR DEC. 1483 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1483 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1483 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1483 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 7.415 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 0 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

41.980   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

 

WE AGAIN HAD  SOME ATTEMPTED COVERING OF BANKER SHORTS  AT THE SILVER COMEX YESTERDAY AS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE RAID ORCHESTRATED BY THE CROOKED BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR ENDED IN FAILURE.  IT IS BECOMING ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE FOR OUR BANKING/OFFICIAL SECTOR TO FLEECE OUR LONGS.

THE LIQUIDATION OF COMEX OI OF SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED AND WE WILL NOW COMMENCE WITH THE ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADERS GOLD OPEN INTEREST

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT:

19,516 CONTRACTS (FOR 9 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 19,516 CONTRACTS) OR 97.58 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2168 CONTRACTS OR 11.27 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  97.58 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 13.94% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1647.20   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 494, DESPITE THE 0 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1483 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG  SIZED: 1927 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1483 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 498  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 0 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.10 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.091 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 156% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 231 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,155,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/  SEPT 41.980 MILLION OZ// 
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 3425 CONTRACTS, TO 623,637 ACCOMPANYING THE  $4.70 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// /

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7258 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  7258 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 623,637,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,683 CONTRACTS: 3,425 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 7258 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 10,623 CONTRACTS OR 1,062,300 OZ OR 33.23 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $4.70 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 33.23  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER TRYING TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 33.23  TONNES!!!!!!. THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON BUT LIKE SILVER IT WAS TO NO AVAIL.  OUR BANKER FRIENDS/OFFICIAL SECTOR ARE GAINING NOTHING WITH THEIR CONTINUAL RAIDS. NO WONDER THE CROOKS ABANDONED THEIR RAIDING EFFORTS RATHER EARLY YESTERDAY MORNING.

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 66,834 CONTRACTS OR 6,683,400 oz OR 207.88 TONNES (9 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7426 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 207.88 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 207.88/3550 x 100% TONNES =5.84% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4359.49  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3425 WITH THE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($4.70)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7258 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7,258 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 10,683 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7,258 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 3425 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 33.23 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $4.70 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  6 notice(s) filed upon for 600 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

A PAPER WITHDRAWAL 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD.

INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 57 CENTS TODAY:

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 494 CONTRACTS from 217,690 UP TO 218,184 AND CLOSER TO A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR SEPT. 0; FOR DEC  1483  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1483 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 494  CONTRACTS TO THE 1483 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1977 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 9.885 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//SEPT  2019: 41.980 MILLION OZ//

 

 

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 0 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1483 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.42 POINTS OR 0.75%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 265.06 POINTS OR 0.98%   /The Nikkei closed UP 229.68 POINTS OR 1.05%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .17%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0787 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0787 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0405 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

In show of goodwill, China exempts USA pork and soybeans from the tariff wars.  Looks like both of our wounded warriors need a trade deal fast

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)A good commentary from Daniel Lacalle..the ECB should raise rates and normalize everything. Instead they made a terrible mistake

(Daniel Lacalle)

ii)Wolf Richter explains why the ECB is a circus and exposes why we had yesterday a “Mutiny on the Bounty”

(Wolf Richter)

iii)Our resident expert on UK affairs Mish Shedlock continues with his thoughts that a no deal Brexit is still on the table

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Israel

Netanyahu might launch a full scale war in GAZA before the elections

(zerohedge)

ii)IRAN/USA

Despite the fact that the USA is furious with Iran over its web of lies over the oil delivery to Syria, Trump is still willing to negotiate with these liars and criminals
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Grant Williams ( of Hmm.. fame) is one of the most brilliant people on the planet.  You do not want to miss what he has to say.

(Chris Powell/GATA)

ii)Paulsen is such an idiot: he tells miners to ignore gold price suppression and go after smaller mining operations

(Reuters/GATA)

iii)OhOH!! this is big:  JPMorgan’s head of gold trading with his no 2 has been put on leave amid another probe on their manipulation.

(Reuters/GATA)

iv)Ted Butler on the case for a silver price rise

(Ted Butler/GATA)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

a)This will not be to Trump’s liking: core retail sales disappoint.  This is the backbone of USA GDP

(zerohedge)

b)China continues to send its deflation to the rest of the world as import/export prices tumbles.  Trump is so far correct that tariffs are not hurting the USA

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)USA trucking industry is in shambles: another 4500 lose their jobs in August

(zerohedge)

b)The FBI has finally agreed to name the Saudi official who helped the 9/11 attackers.  What took them so long.

(zerohedge)

c)Another sign of a collapsing economy:  the bidding wars for USA homes have now collapsed to a 8 year low

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)McCabe has been notified that his appeal to avoid criminal prosecution has been rejected.  So the fun begins

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 3425 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 623,637 ACCOMPANYING THE GAIN OF $4.70 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7602 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR OCT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 7258   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7258 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 10,683 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7258 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 3425 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD IN OUR 6TH CONSECUTIVE RAID YESTERDAY.  THE BANKERS FAILED IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE AS IT REVERSED EARLY TO END HIGHER BY $4.75. JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE AGAIN UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY  UNSUSPECTING LONGS. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  10,878 CONTRACTS OR 1,087,800 OZ OR 33.84 TONNES.

We are now in the NON  active contract month of SEPT and here the open interest stands at 31 CONTRACTS and  we gained 2 contracts.  We had 4 notices filed yesterday so despite the raid and liquidation of contracts we gained 6 contracts or an additional 600 oz of gold that will stand for delivery at the comex and the siege continues as the story for physical gold is the name of the game despite the criminal antics of the bankers.

The next active delivery month is October and here the OI ROSE by 61 contracts UP to 39,286. The month of November saw a gain of  53 contracts and thus the OI is rises to 156.  The very big December contract month saw its OI RISE by 2547 contracts UP to 462,757.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 6 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  600 OZ. (.0186 TONNES)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 494 CONTRACTS FROM 217,690 UP TO 218,184 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 0 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.  HERE WE HAVE 525 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 171 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 268 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE AGAIN GAINED A MONSTROUS 97 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 485,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS THEY  LOOK FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS FOR REFUSING ‘TO TRAVEL’ TO LONDON

 

THE NEXT NON ACTIVE CONTRACT MONTH IS OCTOBER AND IT LOST ANOTHER 39 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1654. NOVEMBER SAW A SMALL GAIN OF 38 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 171. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI FALLS BY 298 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 170,099.

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 231 notice(s) filed for 1155,000 OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 344,511  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  505,233  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  SEPT/GOLD

SEPT 13/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 64.30 oz

 

Brinks

2 kilobars

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
6 notice(s)
 600 OZ
(0.0186 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
25 contracts
(2500 oz)
.077 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1723 notices
172300 OZ
5.359 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ zero amount  arrived   today

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

i) Out of Brinks; 2 kilobars

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 64.30  oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today
FOR THE AUGUST 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 6 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1723) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT. (31 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (6 x 100 oz per contract) equals 174,800 OZ OR 5.4370 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of SEPT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1723 x 100 oz)  + (31)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (6 x 100 oz )which equals 174,800 oz standing OR 5.4370 TONNES in this  active delivery month of AUGUST.

 

We surprisingly again gained 6 contract or an additional 600 oz will seek metal on this side of the pond instead of morphing over to London.  The gold comex is now under siege for any remaining physical metal.

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 27.153  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING //AUGUST AND 5.4370 TONNES IN SEPT.//

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT AND THUS I WILL ADD THE 27.153 TONNES TO THE 5.4370 TONNES (EQUALS 32.590 TONNES) AGAINST THE 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  736,702.381 oz or  22.91 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,096.101.182 oz 251.822 tonnes

IN THE LAST 35 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
SEPT 13 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 6999.034 oz
Brinks
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
856,324.450 oz
CNT
Brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)
231
CONTRACT(S)
(1,155,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
294 contracts
 1,470,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  8102 contracts

40,510,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into CNT: 555,991.270 oz

iii) Into Brinks:  300,333.180 oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  850,324.450  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of Brinks  5981.034 oz

ii) Out of Delaware:  1018.000 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 6999.034  oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

i) Out of CNT: 513,166/940 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of CNT and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

 

total dealer silver:  87.379 million

total dealer + customer silver:  316.188 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER 2019. contract month is represented by 231 contract(s) FOR 1,155,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 8102 x 5,000 oz = 40,510,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (525) and the number of notices served upon today 231 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2019 contract month: 8102 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (525)- number of notices served upon today (231)x 5000 oz equals 41,980,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month. 

We gained another strong 97 contracts or a huge 485,000 additional oz of silver will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER AND DESPITE THESE PAST MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 103,300 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 107,314 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 107,314 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 536 million  OZ 76.67% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.77% ((SEPT 13/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.34% to NAV (SEPT 13/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.77%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 1490 TRADING 14.41/DISCOUNT 3.32

 

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A BIG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 12//WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A HUGE 7.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.15 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: I)A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD (LATE YESTERDAY EVENING) AND 2) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES LATE THIS AFTERNOON./INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.17 TONNES

AUGUST 20//WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WE GOT BACK 7.63 TONNES OUT OF 11.11 TONNES LOST ON WEDNESDAY( A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

 

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

 

 

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SEPT 13/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 880.37 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 663 TRADING DAYS: 55.01 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 563- TRADING DAYS: A NET 111.64 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 13/CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION PAPER OZ OF SILVER///INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.425 MILLION PAPER OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.179 MILLION OZ../

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 60 CENTS TODAY: A RATHER TIMID CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 842,000 PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 386.604 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.696 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20.WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 16/: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 15/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

:

SEPT 13/2019:

 

 

Inventory 379.401 MILLION OZ

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.00/ and libor 6 month duration 2.05

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .05

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.08%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.00

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.08

ALL GOLD LEASES NEGATIVE FOR THE ENTIRE ONE YEAR OUT!!

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Gains 1.5% After ECB Unleashes Bazooka of -0.5% Interest Rate and QE Of €20 Billion A Month

◆ Gold gained 1.7% after the European Central Bank unleashed easy money measures by cutting deposit interest rates and relaunched QE “for as long as necessary”

◆ The ECB moved further into negative rates at -0.5% and will electronically create of €20 billion euros every month to buy bonds; gold rose from €1,362/oz to €1,394/oz prior to giving back gains

◆ Gold has had back to back gains after rising on Wednesday and yesterday but it shed the ECB gains later in the session on fresh hints of progress in the U.S.-China trade dispute

◆ The ECB ‘bazooka’ has increased expectations for a dovish stance from the U.S. central bank at its meeting next week and the Fed is increasingly expected to also revert to quantitative easing and move to negative rates as demanded by President Trump who called Fed officials “boneheads” this week

◆ Palladium sets all-time high on supply angst; record high of $1,621.55/oz; Gold and silver will likely also reach record highs in the coming months

◆ For the week, gold is 0.6% lower and silver is 0.3% lower

 

 

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold gains over 1.5% on dovish ECB; eyes on Fed

Gold tallies a back-to-back gain after ECB unleashes basket of easy-money measures

Palladium sets all-time high on supply angst; gold pares gains

U.S. budget deficit passes $1 trillion mark for fiscal 2019

ECB’s new stimulus helps Trump’s bid against the Federal Reserve

Wall Street advances on trade concessions, euro zone stimulus

Stocks gain on report Trump administration weighing interim China trade deal

Reuters exclusive: Morgan’s head of gold trading put on leave amid probe

 

Gold Prices (LBMA – USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)

12-Sep-19 1502.95 1515.20, 1219.94 1227.46 & 1362.88 1373.53
11-Sep-19 1493.65 1490.65, 1208.21 1209.07 & 1354.74 1355.90
10-Sep-19 1494.60 1498.25, 1211.52 1211.34 & 1353.51 1357.11
09-Sep-19 1509.95 1509.20, 1223.81 1220.34 & 1368.62 1364.92
06-Sep-19 1504.95 1523.70, 1223.52 1237.09 & 1363.94 1378.49
05-Sep-19 1542.60 1529.10, 1257.06 1238.72 & 1397.44 1380.78
04-Sep-19 1538.80 1546.10, 1265.05 1269.97 & 1397.69 1403.86
03-Sep-19 1532.45 1537.85, 1278.06 1277.80 & 1400.35 1403.44
02-Sep-19 1523.35 1525.95, 1260.42 1265.01 & 1388.69 1391.51

 

Click here to listen to the latest GoldCore Podcast

Receive our free Daily or Weekly Updates by signing up here and click here to subscribe to GoldCore’s You Tube Channel

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Grant Williams ( of Hmm.. fame) is one of the most brilliant people on the planet.  You do not want to miss what he has to say.

(Chris Powell/GATA)

Another big reason to join GATA in New Orleans: Real Vision’s Grant Williams

 Section: 

12:01p ET Thursday, September 12, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Here’s another big reason to join GATA at the New Orleans Investment Conference during the first four days in November.

Market analyst, financial letter writer, fund manager, and Real Vision co-founder Grant Williams has just been added to the speaker lineup.

Williams’ work is often sensational, as it was with his presentation to the Stansberry Alliance Conference in Las Vegas last year, a presentation he titled “Cry Wolf,” which likened the ecology of nature to the ecology of the world economy. Meddling with one part of it, Williams showed, can have terrible effects throughout the whole of it.

… 

In “Cry Wolf” Williams argued that the removal of the golden anchor of the world financial system in 1971 de-industrialized and financialized the economy of the United States and gave supreme power to bankers.

That presentation is still as compelling as ever and remains posted in the clear at Real Vision here:

https://www.realvision.com/grant-william-keynote-speech

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and your secretary/treasurer again will be speaking at the conference as well, and in the letter below the conference’s organizer, Gold Newsletter Editor Brien Lundin, explains why you should join us there.

The New Orleans Investment Conference is probably the most serious financial conference in the United States, even as it is held in what may be the country’s most fun and interesting city. Because of the conference, your secretary/treasurer has been there many times and always looks forward to returning for the beauty, history, food, and atmosphere of the place.

Indeed, the city itself competes heavily with the conference for your attention, so if you’re able, it’s good to give yourself an extra couple of days there.

The New Orleans conference has a long history of concentration on the monetary metals, and now that infinite money and devaluation have broken out among central banks and the monetary metals are on the verge of regaining their rightful places in the world financial system, this year more than ever New Orleans will be where gold and silver investors will want to be.

Registration for the conference entails a substantial expense, but as Brien explains below, if you register quickly you’ll enjoy a serious discount along with extra services at no extra cost and a money-back guarantee in case you don’t profit from attending.

Additionally, if you register using the internet link at the bottom of Brien’s letter, the conference will kindly pay a commission to GATA, which will diminish our fundraising appeals in the future.

So please consider joining us in New Orleans.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

The Only Certain Investment
in an Uncertain World

By Brien Lundin
New Orleans Investment Conference
Monday, August 5, 2019

I’m going to hand you the keys to preserving everything you’ve worked for during the turmoil just ahead — to potentially multiplying your wealth during this oncoming crisis and essentially giving you $400 to accept this vital information.

You see, for well over four decades — through some of the most turbulent and dangerous times in investing — there has been no better place to find profits and safety than the legendary New Orleans Investment Conference.

And here’s even better news: This year’s New Orleans Conference is destined to be one of the most rewarding in its 45-year history.

Why? Because while most investors are being whipsawed by President Trump’s tweets and Federal Reserve tea leaves, those coming to New Orleans will get the inside track on a few irreversible trends that will create fortunes.

Let’s take a look at them.

Gold: “Easy money forever” means much higher prices.

The New Orleans Conference has led more investors to profits in gold than any other event in the world.

In fact, our organization was instrumental in getting gold ownership legalized in 1974, and our first conference was specifically held to teach investors how to buy the metal.

Today finds central bankers locked into an “easy money forever” mode that is extremely bullish for gold.

This is no idle speculation: The Fed has completely switched from raising rates to cutting rates.

This will propel metals prices much higher — so we’re once again bringing the world’s most successful gold experts to New Orleans.

You’ll get the top strategies and picks of Rick Rule, Peter Schiff, Brien Lundin, Adrian Day, Brent Cook, Byron King, GATA’s Bill Murphy and Chris Powell, Gerardo Del Real, Gwen Preston, Lobo Tiggre, Thom Calandra, Omar Ayales, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, Dana Samuelson, and more.

Geo-political and market trends that could make or break you.

From Lady Margaret Thatcher to Ayn Rand to Henry Kissinger to Milton Friedman to Alan Greenspan to Ron Paul and more, the New Orleans Conference has a long history of attracting insightful and even legendary figures on the geopolitical and economic stages.

This year is no exception as we’re bringing in Trump economic adviser Stephen Moore, controversial political commentator Kevin D. Williamson, famed contrarian Doug Casey, Fed expert Danielle DiMartino Booth, respected contrarian advisor Peter Boockvar, popular trading authority Dennis Gartman, plus renowned experts like Adrian Day, Mike Larson, Mark Skousen, Robert Prechter, Steven Hochberg. and more.

Green fever in cannabis.

Fortunes are being made right now in the booming cannabis sector, but many investors are wondering how to get involved — and how to avoid the inevitable busts in this quickly evolving industry.

Have no fear, as New Orleans 2019 is featuring the experts who are finding the biggest winners, including Sean Brodrick of Marijuana Millionaires, Matt Carr of the Oxford Club, and Nick Hodge of the Outsider Club.

They’ll not only show you the specific cannabis subsectors that will be the long-term winners, but they’ll also reveal their hottest picks in this red-hot arena.

The future is now: Artificial intelligence, energy metals, fintech, and other juggernaut trends.

Artificial intelligence, the electrification of transportation, new battery technology, blockchain, crypto, clean energy, e-sports, income-producing real estate, medtech, streaming media, 5G, and more — these are creating huge opportunities for investors who can stay on the cutting edge.

Have no fear: Technology financier Ross Gerber, plus the world’s leading energy metals expert, Simon Moores and the Oxford Club’s tech expert, Matt Carr, will explore all these powerful trends at New Orleans 2019.

With Russ Gray and Robert Helms (the acclaimed “Real Estate Guys”), Chris Martenson and Adam Taggart of Peak Prosperity, and Nick Hodge running our inaugural “Next Big Thing(s)” panel, you’ll get insights into key opportunities that can both make fortunes and protect them.

Our quadruple-your-money guarantee — plus a $400 discount.

We will refund your entire registration fee if you find the conference doesn’t provide profits more than quadruple your cost to attend over the first six months following the event.

You can’t lose.

Correction: You can lose — if you don’t act immediately to secure your place at New Orleans 2019.

But here’s the problem: Our registration fee is about to soar, and at some point we’ll likely completely sell out.

The good news: If you register right now, you’ll save up to $400 from our full rate.

Not only that, you’ll also qualify for a free Gold Club upgrade.

Gold Club status gives you free coffee service throughout the day, an exclusive viewing area just for you, intimate Q&A sessions with many of our most popular speakers, free reports, and more.

It sells for $189, but if you register now you’ll get it for no extra charge at all.

All of this is guaranteed only if you register during this special offer period.

In the days ahead hundreds of thousands of investors will discover how exciting and valuable this year’s New Orleans Conference will be.

I can’t guarantee that any of these discounts, guarantees, or free benefits — or even a hotel room — will be available for much longer.

So if you hope to get in at the current early-bird rate and enjoy our quadruple-your-money-or-it’s-free guarantee and free Gold Club status, you’ll need to call us at 1-800-648-8411 or click on the link below to learn more and register now.

Please don’t delay. I look forward to seeing you down here in New Orleans!

All the best,

Brien Lundin
Editor, Gold Newsletter
CEO, New Orleans Investment Conference

* * *

To learn more or register, call toll-free 800-648-8411 or visit:

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

end

Paulsen is such an idiot: he tells miners to ignore gold price suppression and go after smaller mining operations

(Reuters/GATA)

Paulson investor group tells miners to ignore gold price suppression by central banks

 Section: 

Paulson’s Gold Investor Group Urges Deals, Costs Purge

By Jeff Lewis
Reuters
Thursday, September 12, 2019

Gold bull John Paulson’s investor coalition today urged the world’s largest gold miners to immediately cut what it called excessive governance and administrative costs and said smaller rivals should pursue no-premium mergers to boost shareholder returns.

Concerns over global growth and trade uncertainties have pushed gold prices to multi-year highs, stoking expectations of deals among miners and reviving anxieties over cost control. This month gold climbed to its highest level since 2013 hitting $1,503.04 per ounce today.

… 

Major miners including Polymetal, Kinross Gold Corp and Newmont Goldcorp Corp spend nearly two times more on G&A than non-gold producing rivals, Paulson’s Shareholders Gold Council said in a report. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gold-paulson/paulsons-gold-investor-g…

* * *

end

OhOH!! this is big:  JPMorgan’s head of gold trading with his no 2 has been put on leave amid another probe on their manipulation.

(Reuters/GATA)

Reuters exclusive: Morgan’s head of gold trading put on leave amid probe

 Section: 

Two JPMorgan Metals Executives Put on Leave Amid U.S. Probe

By Peter Hobson, Lawrence Delevingne, and Koh Gui Qing
Reuters
Thursday, September 12, 2019

Two JPMorgan Chase & Co. employees, including a top metals trading executive, have been placed on leave in response to a U.S. criminal investigation into the bank’s metals trading practices, according to a source familiar with the matter.

Michael Nowak and Gregg Smith are on leave, the source said today, making them the third and fourth JPMorgan employees to be connected to the criminal investigation that has resulted in guilty pleas from two former JPMorgan metals traders.

… 

Nowak is a managing directorand global head of base and precious metals trading in New York for the bank, according to his LinkedIn profile. Smith’s title could not be learned.

Nowak was placed on leave around late August, the source said.

Neither Nowak nor Smith have been charged with a crime. …

JPMorgan, one of the largest gold trading banks in the world, said in an August regulatory filing it is “responding to and cooperating with” investigations by various authorities, including the Department of Justice, relating to trading practices in the metals markets. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-jpmorgan-spoofing-exclusive/exclusive…

end

Ted Butler on the case for a silver price rise

(Ted Butler/GATA)

Ted Butler: The case for a silver explosion is stronger than ever

 Section: 

7:22p ET Thursday, September 12, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Silver market analyst Ted Butler, interviewed today by Jim Cook of Investment Rarities, argues that the case for an explosion in the price of silver is stronger than ever.

“There is now more buying power in the world and less silver than ever,” Butler says. “Every asset class has risen to all-time highs, while silver has gotten cheaper.”

… 

Of course the imaginary silver represented by derivatives may be more plentiful than ever as well. But if people ever realized that most of the “silver” the world thinks it owns doesn’t exist, that derivatives have been contrived and sustained not just to suppress silver and gold prices but also to suppress commodity prices generally. … Well, it wouldn’t take too much more conversion of the unreal to the real to make Butler’s prediction come true.

Butler’s interview is headlined “Jim Cook Interviews Ted Butler: The Case for a Silver Price Explosion Has Never Been Stronger” and it’s posted at GoldSeek’s companion site, SilverSeek, here —

http://silverseek.com/commentary/jim-cook-interviews-ted-butler-case-sil…

— and at 24hGold here:

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-jim-cook-interviews-ted-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

Jim Cook Interviews Ted Butler: The case for a silver price explosion has never been stronger

Theodore Butler

|

September 11, 2019 – 9:46pm

 

Jim Cook, Investment Rarities interviews Ted Butler

Q: For a number of years, you have been insisting that silver would experience dramatic price gains. Any change in your thinking these days?

A: Not only has there been no change in my thinking, the case for a silver price explosion has never been stronger.

Q: In what way?

A: Well for starters, there is now more buying power in the world and less silver than ever. Every asset class has risen to all-time highs, while silver has gotten cheaper. The slightest switch from more expensive assets to dirt cheap silver will light a rocket under the price of silver.

 

Q: What else?

A: Interest rates. While we’ve yet to see negative interest rates in the U.S., they are a fact of life in Europe. Getting nothing on a deposit should spur people to buy asserts that are cheap and capable of rising in price.

Q: What about the possibility of more quantitative easing?

A: Yes, I think concerns about monetary policies have caused some big investors and institutions to acquire gold or silver lately.

 

Q: Like a hedge fund?

A: I don’t know who. I call one of them a “whale” because I believe they just bought 100 million ounces of silver.

 

Q: What about the biggest silver hoarder of all, JPMorgan?

A: Yes, they have recently become aggressive again and are the leader in taking delivery from the COMEX. They have around 850 million ounces of physical silver which is the equivalent of all the silver mined worldwide in one year. Between the ETFs and JPMorgan, they own most of the silver in the world.

Q: Is JPM the whole story in silver?

A: Yes, they are in complete control.

Q: Any chance they might use all that physical silver to hold down the price?

A: JPM holds enough physical silver to stave off any physical shortage for years, but the compelling question is why would they? They are already billions of dollars ahead on their physical gold and silver holdings after being in the red until this year. And they stand to make many tens of billions more by holding it and not supplying physical silver to the market.

 

Q: I wish more people could see the opportunity that JPMorgan sees in holding silver for the long term.

A: This business about JPMorgan buying up more physical silver (and gold) than ever seen in history is not known to most people. JPMorgan has been buying massive amounts of physical silver for eight years now. As the kingpin of the silver and gold markets, JPMorgan is now positioned to make an absolute fortune on higher prices. Your readers should do the same thing that JPMorgan is doing. They would also have a chance to make a fortune.

Q: The recent price rise in silver has been pretty dramatic. Do you see anything that could keep it rising in such an overheated fashion?

A: The biggest short sellers in COMEX gold and silver are now underwater as much as $4 billion and more likely than ever before to buy back short positions. If they panic and rush to cover, then prices will truly explode.

Q: Care to put a number on it?

A: No, you know I don’t put specific numbers out because that involves a degree of precision that borders on hubris. But if the big shorts truly start to panic, silver could move dollars per day

Q: Any signs of a silver shortage?

A: Sure, everywhere you look, starting with the silver ETFs which are suddenly not getting timely physical deliveries when due. It comes down to whether JPMorgan will let go of some of its physical stockpile.

Q: These seven big shorts that are out so much money will certainly be trying to drive the price down so they can escape the pain, won’t they?

A: Of course, but if they are successful in getting out of those big losses I don’t see them ever going short again.

 

Q: What happens then?

A: The price of silver will skyrocket. It’s inevitable that thirty years of manipulation on the COMEX will end with a bang.

 

https://www.investmentrarities.com/

end

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0787/  

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0405   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 22.42 POINTS OR 0.75%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 265.06 POINTS OR 0.98%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 228.68 POINTS OR 1.05%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 98.03/Euro RISES TO 1.10989

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.15/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.98/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.20 and Brent: 60.44

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.49%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.87% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.24%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.36: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.62

3k Gold at $1507.50 silver at: 18.17   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 55/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.23

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 60 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.97 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9862 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0986 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.49%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.80% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.28%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6736..

US Equity Futures Trade Near All Time High After ECB Goes All In

If it was Powell’s intention to have the S&P trade at an all time when he cuts rates by another 25bps next Wednesday, he achieved it.

 

S&P futures rose alongside Asian and European stocks as shares globally headed for a third weekly gain and a six week high as markets cheered signs of progress in US-China trade talks and the ECB’s just launched open-ended QE. Treasury yields climbed, with the US 10Y rising as high as 1.81%; the dollar slipped while the yuan rose and pound soared on easing no-deal Brexit fears.

 

The resurgent risk appetite was largely the result of renewed trade war optimism after President Trump said on Thursday he was potentially open to an interim trade deal with China, although he stressed an “easy” agreement would not be possible.

Following a muted Asian session where many markets in the region were closed, we saw a groggy start in European trading after Bloomberg reported that most core European nations did not want to restart the ECB’s money printing program, the main bourses eventually traded well in the green, as basic resources and auto sectors outperformed, adding to what was already set to be a fourth straight week of gains.

“We have quite an interesting reaction to the ECB meeting with the sense of the pushback from the core countries, and that essentially that the ECB has now thrown its last cards in,” said John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo bank. “It looks like we are also getting to some pretty interesting levels for yields. If the consolidation continues, at some point you have to question whether the easing (from the central banks) is actually there.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced, heading for a third day of gains and ending their week at a six-week high. Japan’s Nikkei did even better and scored a 4-month peak, after the ECB aggressively resumed monetary easing (even as it complains that not enough fiscal easing was taking place), cutting interest rates for the first time in five years further below zero, while a report said that U.S. officials considered an interim trade deal with China. Utilities and industrial companies were among the strongest sectors as most markets in the region rose. China and South Korea were closed for the moon festival. The Topix rose 0.9%, capping its best week since July 2016, with SoftBank Group and Toyota Motor among the biggest boosts. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 1%, buoyed by AIA Group and China Construction Bank. India’s Sensex added 0.4%, with ICICI Bank and Infosys offering strong support.

In addition to the boost from Trump trade signals and the ECB’s salvo of easing measures, sentiment was also boosted by a U.S. tax overhaul plan aimed at middle-income households next year.

“Risk assets should find further support from accommodative policies, which are set to remain in vogue for some time, and not just in Europe as seen in the global easing trend,” said Natixis market strategist Esty Dwek.

Looking ahead, fed funds rate futures now imply a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut by the U.S. central bank next week but no probability of a larger cut. The Fed will announce its policy on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of Japan on Thursday. Sources told Reuters the BOJ is leaning toward standing pat next week if markets are calm, but is brainstorming ways to deepen negative interest rates at minimal cost.

“I think a rally in stock prices will run out of steam soon. It’s typical buy-on-rumor-sell-on-fact trade on central bank stimulus and will be over by the Fed and the BOJ’s meetings,” said Tatsushi Maeno, senior strategist at Okasan Asset Management.

In FX, the big mover was the GBPUSD, which soared through 1.2400 to outperform other G-10 peers amid short covering and speculation that a no-deal Brexit is becoming unlikely; gains in EURUSD were capped by 1.1100 level as resistance. The euro shuffled up to a two-week high in foreign exchange markets too, as traders there suspected the ECB may have now exhausted all ammunition going forward; meanwhile, rising risk on sentiment pushed the safe-haven Japanese yen to a six week low.

In rates, US, Japanese and European long-dated bond yields were all at six-week highs. Ten-year U.S. Treasuries were trading as high as 1.81% compared with just over 1.4% at the start of September, while Germany’s Bunds settled at the new ECB deposit rate of -0.5%, and Japanese JGBs traded up to -0.17% from as low as -0.29% last week. The German curve bear steepened, with the 30y yield +3.5bp. Peripheral spreads widened to reverse some of the pronounced tightening observed post-ECB yesterday.

Despite resurgent risk sentiment, oil prices were on course to post weekly losses. Traders have begun speculating that the U.S. may ease sanctions on Iran after Trump ousted his hawkish national security adviser John Bolton this week. Brent crude futures fell 0.25% to $60.21 a barrel while WTI crude was down 0.2% at $54.98. Gold ticked up to $1,503 an ounce.

Expected data include retail sales and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Recently we showed that Bank of America card spending data indicated that August showed the biggest monthly drop in spending in 2019, so beware a big miss here.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,017.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 390.93
  • MXAP up 0.7% to 160.02
  • MXAPJ up 0.6% to 515.71
  • Nikkei up 1.1% to 21,988.29
  • Topix up 0.9% to 1,609.87
  • Hang Seng Index up 1% to 27,352.69
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,031.24
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 37,179.77
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,669.18
  • Kospi up 0.8% to 2,049.20
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.5 bps to -0.501%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1081
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 10.1 bps to 0.528%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.5 bps to 0.246%
  • Brent futures down 0.4% to $60.13/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,506.46
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 98.00

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • China plans to encourage companies to buy U.S. farm products including soybeans and pork, and it will exclude those goods from additional tariffs, the editor-in-chief of a prominent state-run newspaper said.
  • Trump administration officials have discussed offering a limited trade agreement to China that would delay and even roll back some U.S. tariffs for the first time in exchange for Chinese commitments on intellectual property and agricultural purchases
  • The Times reported the Democratic Unionist Party, an ally of the ruling Conservative Party, would accept a new agreement to replace the contentious Irish backstop. The pound extended its rally even after some DUP members pushed back against the news
  • Mario Draghi is leaving the ECB with a final stimulus package that has divided colleagues and drawn doubts over its economic effectiveness, putting governments under renewed pressure to step up with fiscal police
  • Deutsche Bank AG will benefit the most by far from the ECB’s new tiered deposit rate, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts led by Kian Abouhossein said Friday. Germany’s largest lender stands to save roughly 200 million euros ($222 million) in annual interest payments
  • Joe Biden battled Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren on health care in a fight emblematic of the Democratic Party’s deepest schism

Asian equity markets traded higher as the positive tone rolled over from Wall St where the major indices edged mild gains and the DJIA notched a 7-day win streak with sentiment underpinned on the improving US-China trade climate and after the ECB announced a package of stimulus measures. ASX 200 (+0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.0%) were higher throughout the majority of session although Australia later returned flat as the outperformance in industrials and financials was counterbalanced by weakness in the tech and mining sectors, while the Japanese benchmark cheered the recent currency weakness and eyed the 22k level. Hang Seng (+1.0%) conformed to the positive risk tone as the recent encouraging trade developments spurred hopes for a ceasefire in the US-China trade war with Chinese negotiators said to be making plans to boost purchases of US agricultural products and with US President Trump suggesting he could consider an interim deal with China. However, gains were restricted in Hong Kong amid the absence of the mainland due to the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday and ahead of a potential weekend of further clashes after the police banned a planned march for Sunday. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded lower in an extension of the recent weakness to track the losses seen in global counterparts, with demand also sapped after a softer enhanced liquidity auction in the long-end and amid reports some BoJ members were said to believe JGB yields are close to a tipping point and would consider action with a move below -0.3%.

Top Asian News

  • Vietnam Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates as Global Risks Rise
  • India Is Said to Mull Selling Refiner Stake to Foreign Oil Firm
  • Turkey’s Jumbo Rate Cut Secures Uneasy Truce for Erdogan, Market

Major European bourses are modestly higher [EuroStoxx 50 +0.4%], following on from a similarly upbeat APAC session, in which sentiment was underpinned by optimism on the US/China trade front (US President Trump said he would consider an interim trade deal with China, while China appeared to recommence soybean purchases from the US) and following the ECB’s announcement of a package of stimulus measures. In terms of index performance, the FTSE 100 (is the laggard with Sterling strength weighing on exporters, although the index is somewhat underpinned with Credit Suisse now overweight in UK equities. Financials are the leading sector, aided by the recent rise in yields and curve steepening. On that note, according to JPM, Deutsche Bank (+3.4%) is set to benefit the most, with 10% relief (as a % of estimated 2020 profit before tax), although they do slightly lag the Eurostoxx banking index (+3.0%). Meanwhile, Materials are also higher, whilst the defensive utilities, consumer staples and health care sectors lag. In terms of individual movers; SSE (+0.9%) is up on the news that the Co. has agreed to sell its SSE Energy Services unit for GBP 500mln. Notable losers include Diageo (-3.3%), who are down after union strike threat relating to pay and Atlantia (-7.0%), who sunk on the news that Italian tax police are carrying

Top European News

  • Swedish Economy Grinding to a Halt on Trade War, Housing Slump
  • Kone CEO Wants Full Merger With Thyssenkrupp Elevator Unit
  • SSE Sells U.K. Retail Unit for 500 Million Pounds to Ovo
  • Pound Set for Best Week Since May as Brexit-Deal Hopes Resurface

In FX, the British Pound continues to piggy-back Euro gains in post-ECB trade, but with the added incentive of no deal Brexit risk declining further amidst reports that the EU could be poised to offer the UK yet another Article 50 extension, while the DUP shows signs of flexibility on the Irish border backstop. Hence, Cable has reclaimed another big figure and extended its stellar rebound from 2019 lows on September 3 to 500+ pips at circa 1.2476 vs 1.1959, while Eur/Gbp has retreated towards 0.8900 again as the single currency hits resistance just above 1.1100 vs the Dollar.

  • EUR/CHF/AUD/JPY – All firmer against the Greenback, but as noted above Eur/Usd has faded after crossing the 1.1100 line and failing to sustain its recovery momentum to challenge the 50 DMA at 1.1130, while the Franc faces some psychological obstacles at 0.9850 having breached 0.9900 in the run up to next week’s FOMC and SNB Quarterly Policy review. Elsewhere, the Aussie remains capped below 0.6900 and the 100 DMA (0.6904), with Aud/Usd currently holding between 0.6877-60 and more technical levels spanning 0.6880-67 including the 55 DMA and the apex of a daily chart formation. The safe haven Yen has pared some losses against the backdrop of improving US-China trade relations as prospects of an interim accord forged at the upcoming mid-level meeting grow on the back of latest tariff exemptions from Beijing. Usd/Jpy has slipped back through 108.00 from around 108.27, while Usd/CNH has retraced further towards 7.0000 without PBoC prompting given China’s mid-Autumn festivities, to sub-7.0400 and not far from the 50 DMA (7.0193).
  • CAD/NZD/NOK/SEK – Marginal G10 laggards even though the DXY has dipped under 98.000 from just over 99.000 at one stage in the fleeting ECB aftermath on Thursday, with the Loonie unable to retrieve 1.3200 against the backdrop of soggy crude prices and Kiwi pivoting 0.6400 as the Aud/Nzd cross finally breaks above 1.0700 and with conviction to just shy of 1.0750. Next up for the Kiwi, Westpac’s Q3 consumer survey after scant improvement in the manufacturing PMI overnight (still some way below 50) and house sales slumping in August. In Scandinavia, the Crowns are narrowly mixed after revised Q2 Swedish GDP data and amidst the aforementioned dip in oil, with Eur/Nok elevated within 9.9150-9600 range vs Eur/Sek closer to the middle of 10.6290-6775 parameters.

In commodities, choppy trade in the oil complex, albeit prices remain within yesterday’s ranges with WTI and Brent futures around 55.0/bbl above 60/bbl respectively. Looking at weekly performance, both benchmarks are poised to end the week in the red, with the the former closer to the bottom of the weekly range (USD 54-58.73/bbl) whilst the latter showed a similar performance within a USD 58.94-63.74/bbl weekly parameter. Over the week, EIA and OPEC downgraded their respective global oil demand forecasts for 2019 and 2020 whilst IEA maintain its forecast. Meanwhile, the JMMC saw little by way of major decision, although the energy ministers reportedly “unanimously” agreed to fully comply with the OPEC+ supply pact, which may see 400k BPD crude outflow from the market, given the undercompliance from some producers. A full review of the current pact will take place in December. Elsewhere, gold prices are on the rise as the USD is weighed on by a firmer EUR and GBP. The yellow metal remains above the USD 1500/oz, having visited a weekly base at USD 1484/oz earlier in the week (vs. weekly high of 1524/oz). Copper prices are poised to notch another day of gains, largely aided by the receding Buck as prices move further north of 2.60/lb ahead of its 100 DMA at 2.66/lb.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.5%, prior 0.2%; 8:30am: Export Price Index MoM, est. -0.3%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.7%; Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 1.0%
    • Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.2%, prior 0.9%; Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.3%, prior 1.0%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 90.8, prior 89.8; Current Conditions, est. 107.8, prior 105.3; Expectations, est. 85.2, prior 79.9

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

If you want the ultimate expression of middle class and middle age behaviour then the following sentence will tick all the boxes. Tonight (on a Friday) I’m going to a classical music recital at someone’s home near to where I live. I’ve been to about 2-3 classical music events in my life but I find myself more and more putting on a “relaxing classics” Spotify playlist at home to introduce calm into my life. I tend to also write research to it on my headphones these days. So hopefully I’ll know some of the hits tonight and can join in at the choruses.

The ECB impact on markets was anything other than calm. It was more like a death metal playlist with loud noises from all angles. So first what did the ECB announce? Well the more expected policy changes included the 10bp cut on the depo rate to -0.50%, better TLTRO3 terms and two-tier tiering – the latter being confirmed with a multiplier at six times banks’ required reserve levels. As for QE, while it was still expected, markets had started to water down expectations leading into the policy meeting so the €20bn per month announcement was the main talking point and ensured a big bond rally immediately following the statement release (subsequently reversed in a big way – see below). The fact that it was left open-ended (or until the ECB starts raising rates) was perhaps the biggest takeaway. QE infinity is back if that’s not an oxymoron. To be fair headlines came through on Bloomberg after the European close that the French, German and Dutch governors opposed more QE, as did Coeure and Lautenschlaeger and a couple of others. So this was a contentious move and rightly so. At the other end of the scale the one area of unanimity on the Council was over the need for fiscal policy.

Indeed the most interesting line in DB’s Mark Wall’s piece on the package was that for this not to be seen as a policy mistake, the ECB must expect fiscal easing with a strong degree of confidence. As such our economists are nervous that the indefinite QE risks flattening the curve and counteracting the stimulus, especially for banks. See the full piece here for more.

To be fair yields and the curve were all over the place yesterday with Mr Draghi’s press conference leading to a sharp reversal of the post announcement trends. Prior to the statement, 10y Bund yields were trading at -0.591%. By the time the statement was announced and Draghi started to speak, yields had fallen to -0.654%. However by the time the press conference had finished, bonds had made a complete reversal and in fact yields finished at -0.516% – so +6.5bps above where they were at roughly 12.44pm BST and +13.1bps off the lows at 1.06pm BST. The high-to-low range was also the most since May 1 while the 2s10s curve flattened 7.3bps to (at 20.3bps), just 4bps off its cyclical low – probably the biggest negative of the package. In fact, two-year yields rose +11.8bps, their sharpest selloff since December 2015 when the ECB disappointed markets. Looking at two-year z-scores, that equated to a pretty shocking 7.6 standard deviation move. One positive note was the rebound in inflation expectations, with 5y5y inflation swap rates rising +8.0bps to 1.30% but only back to post Sintra levels.

It was a similar volatile day across the rest of European bond markets but with various different magnitudes. To be fair BTPs only retraced partially after the large initial rally. They ended -10.3bps lower at 0.867% but that was after hitting 0.749% at the lows. Italy was a big winner overall on the day. Meanwhile the euro traded in a range of 1.45% but ultimately ended up +0.50% after completing a similar u-turn. European banks meanwhile ended up a modest +0.24% after being up as much as +1.77% and then down as much as -2.68%. Tiering was a positive, and yields eventually rose, but if curves flatten further then this won’t go down as a successful meeting for banks. The STOXX 600 ended +0.20% also after similar intra-day swings.

The U-turn seemed to come with the strong emphasis on both the negative side effects of monetary easing and the stressing of the need for fiscal policy. Specifically, Draghi referred being “very concerned about the pension industry” and also suggesting that the answer to speeding up positive side effects as being fiscal policy. Draghi’s repeated recognition of the side effects on banks implies that in his eye the reversal rate is not much lower than where we are today.

It’s hard to therefore get away from feeling that even the ECB feel we’re nearing the end game in terms of the limits of monetary policy. Something that has been obvious to the outside world for sometime. To be fair to them, if there is no fiscal policy of any note they could argue they have little choice but to ease, however it’s clear that easing in its own right is now at the edge of being counterproductive.

Meanwhile on the CSPP, Michal in my credit strategy team has published a piece called “The ECB CSPP Is Back, Indefinitely” in which he estimates the likely size of the upcoming corporate purchases in light of buying in various historical episodes, provides commentary on other measures within the stimulus package, incl. tiering and its P&L impact on the banking sector, discusses the odds of the ECB expanding the eligibility criteria for the CSPP such as by including bank senior preferred bonds, and finally he offers a broader assessment of the impact on credit, incl. relative value views on CSPP-eligibles vs. ineligibles. You can find the full note here.

To throw a spanner into the global fixed income works yesterday, the US August core CPI print came in higher than expected at +0.3% mom (vs. +0.2% expected). The unrounded number was ‘only’ +0.2565% but it was still enough to push the annual rate up two-tenths to +2.4% yoy and to a post-crisis high. Ultimately Treasuries tracked the move for European bonds and 10y yields ended +4.3bps while the 2s10s curve finished a bit flatter at 5.9bps. It’s worth noting that we’re now down to pricing 25bps of cuts for the Fed next week and 52bps for the rest of the year. As for equities, the S&P 500 finished +0.29% – just 0.54% from its all-time high – and the NASDAQ closed +0.30%, with both boosted somewhat by the trade chatter which we’ll come to shortly.

Overnight in Asia markets are following Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (+1.03%), Hang Seng (+0.36%) and Australia’s ASX (+0.14%) all up. Markets in China and South Korea are closed for a holiday. 10y JGB yields are up +5.4bps this morning at -0.170% after recently hitting a three year low of -0.295% on September 4th. So a big move. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.11% while 10y UST yields are up another +1.6bps.

In other overnight news, the US President Trump said that he’s planning a tax cut directed at the middle class that will be announced in the next year. He added that, “It will be a very substantial tax cut,” and would be “very, very inspirational” without providing details. The statement comes after the White House decision, earlier in the week, of not going ahead with cutting the tax on capital gains by indexing gains to inflation. Elsewhere, the Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had told CNBC earlier that the administration has also put off the idea of a possible cut in payroll taxes while adding that Trump was focused instead on a second round of proposed tax cuts. However, delivering on the tax cut ahead of the 2020 election is likely to face stiff opposition in Congress. Elsewhere, the IEA warned overnight that OPEC+ faces a significant challenge in managing the market in 2020 as production surges from their competitors. WTI oil prices are down -0.33% this morning.

Back to yesterday, where on the trade subject, Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration have “discussed offering a limited trade agreement to China that would delay and even roll back some US tariffs”. The story goes on to say that this would be in exchange for commitments from the Chinese side on intellectual property and agri purchases. The story did however suggest that the Huawei issue would remain. Interestingly CNBC downplayed the story later saying that the White House is not considering an interim deal but subsequently while speaking to reporters at the White House, President Trump said that it is something he will consider. He said, “A lot of people are talking about, and I see a lot of analysts are saying: an interim deal, meaning we’ll do pieces of it, the easy ones first. But there’s no easy or hard. There’s a deal or there’s not a deal. But it’s something we would consider. ”

Prior to that story, China’s Commerce Ministry confirmed that working teams will meet soon to prepare for the next round of high-level meetings. The Dow Jones later reported that China was seeking to narrow trade talks with the US “to only trade matters” and “putting thornier national-security issues on a separate track.” Again though, it was not clear if this possible olive branch would allow the Huawei issue to be separated from the tariff discussions, since national security could also refer to Hong Kong and arms sales to Taiwan. Still, the rhetoric continues to point in the right direction for now and towards a more positive outcome.

Meanwhile, here in the UK, The Times has reported overnight that the DUP has said it would accept North Ireland abiding by some European Union rules after Brexit as part of a new deal to replace the Irish backstop which includes dropping objections to regulatory checks in the Irish sea. However, the DUP leader Foster subsequently tweeted that the UK must leave the EU as one nation while adding that the DUP is keen to see a sensible deal but not one that divides the internal market of the UK. So take whichever side of that that you’d prefer. However it’s obvious talks are going on to try to find common ground between the government and the DUP.

As for the data in Europe yesterday, the July industrial production was a fair bit worse than expected at -0.4% mom (vs. -0.1% expected) however this was countered by upward revisions to the prior month. Meanwhile there were no final surprises in the August CPI readings for France and Germany and +0.5% mom and -0.1% mom respectively, both unrevised from the initial readings.

Finally to the day ahead where data this morning includes the July trade balance and Q2 labour costs print for the Euro Area. In the US it’ll be all eyes on the August retail sales report while the August import price index and preliminary September University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey are also due. Recall that last month, the headline UoM survey fell -8.6 points, the most since 2012, to its lowest level in almost three years. Our economists have noted that when the UoM falls far below the Conference Board survey, it tends to be a recession indicator. While that is worrying, they do forecast a slight pickup in tomorrow’s print to 92.0, which would be up +2.2 points and slightly above consensus which is for 90.8.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.42 POINTS OR 0.75%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 265.06 POINTS OR 0.98%   /The Nikkei closed UP 229.68 POINTS OR 1.05%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .17%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0787 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0787 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0405 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

In show of goodwill, China exempts USA pork and soybeans from the tariff wars.  Looks like both of our wounded warriors need a trade deal fast

(zerohedge)

In Show Of “Goodwill”, Beijing Exempts US Pork, Soybeans From Trade-War Tariffs

Confirming reports from earlier in the week, Beijing announced on Friday that it would indeed encourage state-owned companies to begin “goodwill” purchases of US soybeans, pork and other farm goods (desperately needed by China) by imposing waivers from trade-war tariffs, according to the South China Morning Post.

The decision was characterized as the latest in a series of tit-for-tat trade war deescalations by Beijing and Washington (though Beijing is struggling with a deadly outbreak of swine flu that has killed off nearly one-third of the country’s pigs, and also has been struggling to find replacements to source soybeans, it’s funny how importing stuff they need has been characterized as “goodwill”).

Still, China’s Xinhua News Agency reported on Friday that China’s National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce had decided to make the exemption in response to the US’s decision to postpone a hike in the tariff rate on $250 billion of Chinese goods from October 1 to October 15.

 

As always, Global Times editor Hu Xijin was among the first to report the news, adding that “it is hoped the US side can keep goodwill reciprocity with China through practical actions.”

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

Based on what I know, Chinese govt encourages Chinese companies to buy certain amount of US farm products, including soybeans and pork, which will also be exempted from additional tariffs. It is hoped the US side can keep goodwill reciprocity with China through practical actions.

Beijing will allow Chinese businesses to purchase a “certain amount of farm products such as soybeans and pork” from the US, according to Xinhua. “China’s market is big enough and there’s great potential to import high-quality US farm products.” Chinese officials added that “the US will honour its word and fulfil its promises to create favourable conditions for cooperation for the two countries in the agriculture sector.”

Hua Changchun, an economist at Guotai Junan Securities, a brokerage in the PRC, said Beijing’s latest ‘gesture’ has increased the prospects for a narrow trade deal with the US.

“But it’s a small deal,” Hua said. “It means that there would be no escalation of tariffs as China has agreed to make more purchases. It could provide a certain level of comfort to US farmers and give Trump something to brag about” It marks the latest in series of rapid-fire developments this week that suggest a concerted effort by China to push for a partial, or interim, trade deal.

Trump said Thursday he preferred a broad deal, but left open the possibility of a more limited deal to start. Beijing’s confirmation comes after Reuters confirmed that several state-owned firms had purchased “at least 10 boatloads” of US soybeans.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

A good commentary from Daniel Lacalle..the ECB should raise rates and normalize everything. Instead they made a terrible mistake

(Daniel Lacalle)

Draghi’s New ECB QE4EVA Is A Mistake. Here Is What He Should Have Done…

Authored by Daniel Lacalle via DLacalle.com,

The ECB is creating a dangerous bubble and should not have cut rates by 10bps nor added a new purchase program of €20 billion per month.

1) Eurozone states are already financing themselves at negative rates. There is no need for lower rates and this disguises real risk.

This has saved governments more than 1 trillion euro in interest expenses (handelsblatt.com/today/finance/…)

2) The ECB has not abandoned its stimulus. It repurchases all maturities, launched a liquidity injection (TLTRO) in March 2019 and balance sheet stands at almost 40% of eurozone GDP.

3) Excess liquidity is 1.7 trillion euro. More liquidity does not lead agents to spend/invest more.

There is no higher solvent credit demand because monetary policy perpetuates overcapacity and zombifies the economy. Share of zombie companies has soared c30% since 2013 (BIS)

4) Interest rates are already negative. This has caused a 23 billion euro loss for banks (according to Scope Ratings) and a worrying rise in junk debt demand.

5) There is no evidence of a need for more credit growth.Rather the opposite.

The ECB believes the eurozone problem is one of excess saving and lack of demand when it is of excess debt and oversupply.

 

6) Negative rates zombify the economy and are a massive transfer of wealth from savers and productive sectors to the indebted and inefficient.

7) The ECB already accumulates a disproportionate amount of sovereign debt as well as corporate bonds of issuers that never had a problem financing themselves at low rates.

This disguises risk and creates an enormous bubble.

8) The problem of the eurozone is not one of lack of stimuli, but an excess of them.

Governments burden the productive private sector with higher taxes and unnecessary regulations, so economic surprise falls despite massive stimulus.

9) When this fails or -even worse- explodes, central planners will likely blame “markets” or “lack of stimulus” to repeat.

10) Saying that negative rates are “demanded” by investors is a sad excuse.

Financial repression leads economic agents to take more risk for lower yields and central banks go from lenders of last resort to enablers of financial bubbles.

The ECB should have:

  • Raised rates modestly to show signs of normalization putting rates closer to inflation, as well as giving the opportunity to understand what is the real demand in the secondary market for sovereign bonds.
  • Condition all asset purchases on governments implementing structural reforms and delivering on deficit targets.
  • Redirected the liquidity injections to a broad-based asset purchase system for specific requirements with a dividend and solvency commitment from financial entities (so the ECB gets liquidity back in dividends) and eliminate the negative rate on deposits.
  • Increased detail on forward guidance to monitor the level of success of measures.
END
Wolf Richter explains why the ECB is a circus and exposes why we had yesterday a “Mutiny on the Bounty”
(Wolf Richter)

Palace Revolt at the ECB, Legitimacy of Policy out the Window

by Wolf Richter •  • 32 Comments • Email to a friend

Draghi’s desperate shenanigans thicken.

ECB President Mario Draghi, who is on his way out, will, as we’re learning more and more, do anything to push his agenda and make it stick at the ECB long after he leaves, but whatever his agenda may be, it’s clearly unrelated to the European economy which has been buckling under the consequences of his agenda: the destructive weight of negative interest rates and QE. And in the process, he is destroying the legitimacy of the ECB’s policy.

The latest incident was on Thursday. During the press conference following the ECB’s policy meeting, he lied to reporters, claiming that the “consensus was so broad there was no need to take a vote,” when in fact he had a revolt on his hand during the meeting by the presidents of the national central banks that represented half of the economy of the Eurozone, and by members of the Executive Board.

Among the key policy changes the ECB announced on Thursday was the restart of QE to the tune of €20 billion a month and a tiny 10-basis point cut in its deposit rate, from the old negative -0.4% to the new negative -0.5%.

The announcement also included a provision to help banks – which have been getting re-crushed by these idiotic negative interest rates – to survive those negative interest rates: the ECB would exempt part of the banks’ deposits at the ECB from negative rates in a two-tier system.

It was the QE portion of the decision that had triggered the unprecedented revolt during the meeting. “Officials with knowledge of the matter” told Bloomberg that during the contentious meeting, the members of the Governing Council and of the Executive Board who vigorously opposed the restart of QE included but was not limited to:

  • Jens Weidmann, President of the Bundesbank
  • Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France
  • Klaas Knot, President of the Dutch central bank
  • Ewald Nowotny, Governor of the Austrian central bank
  • Ardo Hansson, Governor of the Bank of Estonia
  • Sabine Lautenschlaeger, Member of the Executive Board
  • Benoit Coeure, Member of the Executive Board

The countries of the five heads of the national central banks, from Weidmann to Hansson, account for about half of the economy of the Eurozone.

They opposed the restart of QE, but there was no vote – which is common in ECB proceedings when there is a consensus. But there was no consensus. And Draghi simply imposed his agenda.

“Such disagreement over a major monetary policy measure has never been seen during Draghi’s eight-year tenure,” according to Bloomberg’s sources.

Among the key reasons cited against relaunching QE now, according to the sources, was that there is no emergency, and it’s better to save QE for an emergency, such as some big turmoil in the Eurozone following a no-deal Brexit.

Nevertheless, during the press conference after the contentious meeting, Draghi lied to reporters about it, when he told them ridiculously:

“There was more diversity of views on APP [asset purchase program]. But then, in the end, a consensus was so broad there was no need to take a vote. So the decision in the end showed a very broad consensus. As I said, there was no need to take a vote. There was such a clear majority.”

But this wasn’t the first time that Draghi was exposed as having lied blatantly about what had transpired during the policy meeting.

In a speech in June about an unrelated historical topic he said that “additional stimulus will be required,” in form of “further cuts in policy interest rates” and additional bond purchases, and that “all these options were raised and discussed at our last meeting.”

But those were blatant lies too. Sources who were part of the ECB’s June meeting told Reuters that no such options were discussed. Draghi had simply sallied forth on his own, pushing his agenda, and trying to force the ECB’s hand [read… No, Rate Cuts Were Not Discussed: ECB Insiders Out Draghi as Fabricator & Schemer, and Talk to Reuters] 

The fact that both of these blatant and manipulative lies – concerning the Thursday meeting and concerning the June meeting – were leaked at all indicates that internally within the ECB, Draghi is going down in flames and that the revolters are offering tidbits of his shenanigans up for public consumption, even as he’s trying to force the ECB on a track it cannot get off after he leaves.

The ECB already has two mega-problems on its hand: Acknowledging that negative interest rates are a destructive experiment that is now blowing up into their faces and that they need to somehow back away from; and acknowledging that QE as standard monetary policy is an economic failure that creates all kinds of wild distortions – though it glued to Eurozone together by having prevented more sovereign defaults after Greece’s default, particularly a default by Italy.

But now the ECB has a third problem on its hand: The legitimacy of its policy decisions has been revealed to be a joke; and that this circus has become a one-man show driven by Draghi’s own agenda.

end
Our resident expert on UK affairs Mish Shedlock continues with his thoughts that a no deal Brexit is still on the table
(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

‘No Deal’ Brexit Still On The Table, Scotland Silliness, DUP Dealing

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Despite a lot of huffing and puffing by Remainers, nothing has changed.

Eurointelligence wrote yesterday morning No, the Scottish courts will not stop Brexit”

I thought the stuff on Scotland silly I did not bother writing about it. Here’s the Eurointelligence take.

The Brexit saga underwent another plot twist yesterday when two British courts, the High Court of England and Wales, and the Inner House of Session of Scotland, simultaneously issued diametrically opposed judgments on whether Boris Johnson’s decision to prorogue parliament was lawful. The English court held that this is not a matter for the courts but for parliament. The Scottish court found that not only was the issue justiciable, but that Boris Johnson had acted unlawfully in advising the Queen to prorogue. Each decision is being appealed to the UK Supreme Court by the losing party, one on each side.

We expect this to be of more significance to the debate over Scottish independence than to Brexit. Legal commentators, including the retired Supreme Court judge Lord Sumption, expect the UK Supreme Court to side with the English ruling rather than the Scottish one.

So far so good.

If the Supreme Court, as we expect, does not intervene on prorogation, that leaves Hilary Benn’s legislation – requiring Johnson to seek an extension to the Art. 50 withdrawal period – as the main tactical approach left for Remainers.

Not sure what Eurointelligence means by “tactical” but Johnson has a legal challenge to Benn, if he wants one.

Benn does nothing if a challenge is upheld (as it should be).

But Johnson may have better ideas than issuing a challenge.

The act has been repeatedly and mistakenly described in the British media as “taking no deal off the table”, which illustrates how few journalists have bothered to even read the plain words of its text. Johnson is required by the act to send a letter to the European Council requesting an extension until 31st January 2020. But the act only requires that he send this letter on October 19. Even then, he only has to send the letter if parliament hasn’t agreed to either a deal or a no-deal exit by that date. Both scenarios being explicitly allowed by the legislation. Moreover, it allows Johnson to withdraw the letter if the House of Commons votes in favour of either a withdrawal agreement or of no-deal exit between 19th October and 31st October.

That paragraph seems to dispute the one that immediately preceded it.

So is Benn a key tactical strategy or not?

Strategic Error?

We think the Remainers committed a strategic error. It was a mistake to leave the machinery of government in Johnson’s hands between now and October 31. He will be the only person in the room negotiating and speaking to other heads of government. It also leaves plenty of avenues at his disposal for frustrating an extension request. However watertight Hillary Benn’s legislation might seem, one thing it cannot do is muzzle the prime minister or limit his right to make political statements, both within the House of Commons and at the European Council in October. It also means Johnson now has five more weeks to dominate the UK media agenda, unimpeded by parliamentary questioning thanks to prorogation. 

Machinery in Johnson’s Hands?

Is it? How?

Even though I dismiss Benn, Parliament at any time may opt for a motion of no confidence. A puppet government could easily take control.

Yes, Johnson can control the discussion with the EU. But the motion of No Confidence hangs like the Sword of Damocles over his head.

More importantly, Johnson has repeatedly and publicly committed to not complying with the legislation and not issuing the extension request letter on October 19. If that were to happen, it is unclear what the consequences would be for him. Lord Sumption suggested the courts could intervene and have a civil servant issue the extension request letter on behalf of the prime minister. Dominic Grieve has suggested the courts might even imprison the prime minister, although this seems to us quite fanciful.

That is flat out false. Johnson has stated he will not seek an extension. But he has also repeatedly stated he will not break the law.

How that can be, I am unsure. But if someone bets you the queen of spades will jump out of the deck and spit grapefruit juice in your eye, and you take the bet, expect an eyeful of grapefruit juice.

Is a legal challenge breaking the law? What about producing a deal?

We think that Remainers actively seeking either of these outcomes would be a calamitous error, even if it were the natural progression of the British legal process. It would lead to very legitimate arguments by the UK’s right wing press and the Brexit Party about a British establishment stitch-up, with remain MPs, civil servants and judges conspiring to bypass Johnson and thwart the effects of the 2016 referendum result. It would also play straight into the hands of Johnson’s strategist, Dominic Cummings, who in our view has identified that the Conservatives’ best chances of electoral victory are in taking this dispute to the absolute brink.

We do not think that any of this is very likely, and we expect that the UK’s courts will be reluctant to take responsibility for the political effects of Brexit, and will want to keep the ball firmly in the hands of parliament. We suggest the only real prospect of getting the UK parliament to come to a clear decision is for the European Council either to rule out a further extension request next month, or to grant an extension of a few weeks only on condition that the UK hold general elections to try and break the deadlock.

The EU is aiding and abetting the Remainers. They might even grant an extension for a referendum even if the Referendum took a year.

The problem for the EU is that Johnson is likely to win the election.

Compromise

Is the DUP softening its stance on the backstop? As no-deal Brexit gets closer, even hardcore backstop defenders in Northern Ireland are softening their posturing. A last-minute deal is possible. Angela Merkel said yesterday that a deal can be done even on the last day before the deadline expires. No one wants a hard Brexit.

The Tories and the DUP are currently working on a compromise. The Northern Ireland-only backstop is still a no-go for the DUP. But its leader, Arlene Foster, is now talking about a sensible deal, which the Irish Times interpreted as a move into “I can’t believe it’s not the backstop” territory.

Nigel Dodds told BBC News that there could be arrangements for the benefit of Northern Ireland, the Republic and the EU. He added that any such arrangements would require the assent of the Northern Ireland assembly. But the assembly has been suspended for years. We agree that a Northern-Irish backstop is the way to go, but there are formidable obstacles, which is why Theresa May chose not to pursue this option, and why the EU accepted the ill-fated all-UK backstop solution instead.

Theresa May needed the DUP to govern.

Johnson doesn’t because he is more than 30 in the hole. He could easily throw DUP under the bus, albeit with consequences, if he gained compensating votes elsewhere.

Until we get well inside the 14 day window before Oct 31, Parliament can oust Johnson at will.

If by Oct 29 Johnson is not outed and there is no extension, then it is certain Brexit will happen, deal or no deal.

Meanwhile, this Parliament will stop at nothing. Only the ego of Jeremy Corbyn can foul up a successful motion of no confidence coupled with a new caretaker PM.

Next Up, October 14

Between now and October 14 not much is likely to happen. The UK court will rule the Scotland challenge is nonsense, then we wait to see what both sides do.

A breakthrough with DUP and Ireland is the main possible exception to the nothing much happening before October 14 idea.

Meanwhile, No Deal is still on the table. It has to be. It remains the default legal position.

end
EU/Germany
Draghi admits that he is out of ammunition as far as purchases of sovereign bonds.  He is now asking countries to stimulate their economy with more debt.  It will not happen with Germany
(zerohedge)

“Count Draghila”: A Furious Germany Reacts To Draghi’s Monetary “Horror”

When it comes to Mario Draghi’s relationship with Germany’s notoriously fiscally (and monetarily) conservative public, it tends to be a love-hate affair. Actually, scrap the love part.

Back in March 2016, when the ECB cut rates and expanded its QE (in an operation that just like Thursday left market’s underwhelmed, and sent the EUR surging), Germany’s press responded not too kindly to Draghi’s monetary largesse with Handelsblatt, in an article titled “The dangerous game with the money of the German savers”, provided a metaphorical rendering of what is happening in Europe as follows:

The German magazine also painted an oddly accurate caricature of the man behind Europe’s monetary lunacy:

Fast forward three and a half years later, when Mario Draghi, one foot out of the ECB’s Frankfurt HQ on his way to retirement, doubled down in what appeared to be the final push in European monetary policy, when the central banker cut interest rates deeper into negative territory and promised bond purchases with no end-date to push borrowing costs even lower.

The fact that it was left open-ended (or until the ECB starts raising rates) was perhaps the biggest takeaway, and as Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid noted “QE infinity is back if that’s not an oxymoron.” That said, there were some complications when Bloomberg reported that Europe’s top central bankers – the French, German and Dutch governors – all opposed more QE, as did Coeure and Lautenschlaeger and a couple of others. “So this was a contentious move and rightly so.”

But an even bigger surprise was Draghi’s veiled admission that the ECB is now out of ammo and that to boost the economy, Europe will need fiscal stimulus, i.e., issue more debt. Specifically, Draghi referred being “very concerned about the pension industry” and also suggested that the answer to speeding up positive side effects was fiscal policy. As Reid concluded, “it’s hard to therefore get away from feeling that even the ECB feel we’re nearing the end game in terms of the limits of monetary policy. Something that has been obvious to the outside world for sometime.”

So just how easy will it be for the ECB – and its new head Christine Lagarde – to force Europe into taking the politically unpopular move of issuing (much) more debt (even with the ECB’s MMT-esque guarantee to monetize it) to support the economy. Well, aside from the fact that Lagarde will face a major revolt from the ECB hawks from day one, especially if she intends to pursue a continuation of Draghi’s policies…

jeroen blokland

@jsblokland

will face massive revolt from day one!

View image on Twitter

… there are those who bizarrely believe that Europe is finally on a winning path. One among them is the traditionally skeptical Bill Blain who earlier today wrote that “Europe is heading down a new road – the Fiscal super-highway. Draghi confirmed it when he called it: “Time for Fiscal Policy to take Charge”, challenging governments with “fiscal space to act in an effective and timely manner.”  It’s was a perfect set up for his successor, Christine Legarde, who has but one role: to ensure the politics of Europe fall in with fiscal stimulus. And just in case anyone thinks a fiscal boost = debt crisis, then the resumed QE program should pretty much ensure the ECB has the ammunition to cover any weakness in European sovereign bonds.”

Strip it to the core, and you could argue all that’s really happening is the ECB printing lots of money for European states to fiscally juice their economies….. As I said it clever!

Clever yes, but simple? For the answer we once again go to the only nation that matters when it comes to the monetary and fiscal future of Europe, namely Germany, where years after the 2016 slam of Draghi, we again find that the mood is less than enthusiastic.

And nowhere was this mood represented better than by Germany’s most popular tabloid, Bild, which on Friday accused Draghi of “sucking dry” the bank accounts of Germany’s savers, a day after the ECB cut interest rates deeper into negative territory. Next to a Dracula photomontage of Draghi, Bild’s headline read: “Count Draghila is sucking our accounts dry.”

Just like in 2016, the ECB’s “open-ended” stimulus immediately fueled concerns among frugal Germans (perhaps the only nation in Europe that actually saves their money), who have complained for years that the ECB’s low interest rates are denying them a decent rate of return on their savings.

The horror for German savers goes on and on,” Bild wrote.

As Reuters notes, this wasn’t the first time the tabloid had taken aim at Draghi: during the euro zone crisis, Bild gifted the Italian a spiked Prussian helmet from 1871 to show its confidence that he would adhere to German-style discipline. Draghi put the helmet on a shelf in his office (for those wondering, Draghi made a mockery of German-style discipline by unleashing an unprecedented monetary easing).

Voicing Germans’ anger, Helmut Schleweis, president of Germany’s powerful savings banks association, said the ECB’s latest policy package “does more harm than good”.

Even Germany Finance Minister Olaf Scholz sought to calm savers worried ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting.

“Most contracts that customers have with their banks do not currently allow such penalty rates, so the problem is not acute,” Scholz said. “Banks’ boards are wise enough to grasp what they would trigger with such penalty rates.”

Which begs the question: if the ECB’s move is voided by banks’ charters at the depositor level where monetary policy is meant to have the most impact, just why did the central bank do what it did (if not to crush Europe’s banking system)?

The answer, it appears, is that very soon Germany’s hate toward the ECB will only be magnified because as Joachim Wuermeling, a board member of Germany’s Bundesbank said: “Banks could soon pass on lower interest rates to even more customers,” Wuermeling told Focus magazine. Nobody should be surprised if banks demanded higher fees and were mulling negative interest rates, Wuermeling said. “It may be necessary from a business and banking supervisory point of view,” he added.

The irony, of course, is that despite being the biggest European economy, its opposition to the ECB’s latest monetary lunacy was lost amid demands for more ECB handouts by such nations as Italy and Spain, which – tragically – now appear to control Europe’s fate. Germany wasn’t alone: the new Austrian National Bank Governor Robert Holzmann, who also sits on the ECB’s policymaking Council, said the ECB’s policy met “pushback” at a meeting this week.

Asked whether the new measures were a mistake, Holzmann, who has a seat on the ECB Governing Board, told Bloomberg TV: “I’m sure this idea crossed the mind of some people and it definitely crossed my mind.”

“Some people” like the entire German population. So when betting the house on Europe’s “inevitable” fiscal stimulus ushered in by an amicable reaction to the ECB strongarming the entire continent into doing the bidding of a few unelected bankers, our advice is… don’t: Germany will never agree; it also the reason why fiscal stimulus has never worked in Europe, and why politicians have always punted to the ECB when it came to more stimulus. This time won’t be different.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Israel

Netanyahu might launch a full scale war in GAZA before the elections

(zerohedge)

Netanyahu: Israel Might Launch Full-Scale Gaza War “Before The Elections”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears ready to risk launching a major Middle East war rather than see his chances of re-election to a record fifth term dwindle.

Desperately trying to shore up more votes ahead of Tuesday’s election by trying to “out-hawk” his opponents in the center-right Blue and White Party, he said Thursday Israel will probably launch a full-scale war on Gaza “before the elections”.

In his comments, which came just after returning from Sochi, Russia where he met with President Vladimir Putin, Netanyahu asserted, “An operation in Gaza could happen at any moment, including four days before the elections.” He immediately followed with the dubious assertion, “The date of the elections does not factor [into a decision to go to war].”

 

Israeli bombing of Gaza, file image.

And the day before he said similarly during an Israeli radio interview that Israel will be left with no choice but to “topple the Hamas regime” should such a military campaign begin.

As part of a media blitz five days before the elections, he said, “There probably won’t be a choice but to topple the Hamas regime. Hamas doesn’t exert its sovereignty in the Strip and doesn’t prevent attacks.”

However, so far it doesn’t appear his hawkish rhetoric is substantially moving the polls — unlike past successful appeals to far-right and nationalist sectors.

Starting Tuesday Hamas militants and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) engaged in a small scale exchange of fire after multiple rockets were launched from Gaza, which briefly interrupted a Netanyahu campaign speech in the southern city of Ashdod, where he was rushed off the stage amid inbound rocket siren warnings.

 

Via The Times of Israel

More broadly, the IDF has over the past weeks struck targets in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon to disrupt what it says are “Iran-backed” operations, in a dangerous gambit that has brought Israel on the brink of war with Hezbollah.

Should Netanyahu see his re-election bid and chances rapidly slip away shortly before voters go to the polls, who knows what major conflagration might ‘conveniently’ be sparked?

end
IRAN/USA
Despite the fact that the USA is furious with Iran over its web of lies over the oil delivery to Syria, Trump is still willing to negotiate with these liars and criminals
(zerohedge)

Furious US Slams Iran’s “Web Of Lies” Over Oil Delivery To Syria

On Thursday the US State Department slammed the Iranian government for its deceit and “web of lies” regarding the destination of the previously detained tanker Adrian Darya.

When asked about the Iranian tanker’s recent delivery of oil to Syria, spokesperson Morgan Ortagus said, “I think the importance here to our friends around the world in the international community is to note that once again you have been lied to and misled by the Iranian regime.”

Ortagus said Tehran blatantly lied to UK/Gibraltar authorities about its intent to offload its 2.1 million barrels of Iranian oil.

 

The US State Dept. has offered a reward of up to $15 million for information on illicit Iran and Hezbollah oil shipping activities. Image source: EFE/EPA 

“The Iranian regime broke its word and appears intent on fueling the Assad regime’s brutality against the Syrian people, who continue to face widespread violence, death and destruction,” Ortagus stated. “This fits into the web of lies perpetrated by the Iranian regime for 40 years,” she said.

“Their deception and broken promises are not just aimed at the international community but the Iranian people, too,” she added. It’s believed the Adrian Darya conducted a ship-to-ship transfer while waiting off Syria’s coast, near the port of Tartus.

Asked if the United States had evidence that the ship had offloaded its crude oil to Syria, State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus told reporters: “Yeah… The Iranian regime delivered oil to Syria, and that fuel goes straight into the tanks of troops that are slaughtering innocent Syrians.” — Reuters

This appears to be the first high level US government confirmation that Iran has indeed successfully unloaded the Adrian Darya’s oil to Syria, which Iranian officials previously acknowledged was purchased by what headlines said was an “unknown buyer”.

 

The Grace 1/Adrian Darya 1’s passage over the past two months, via The Daily Mail

The whole saga which began with the supertanker’s being boarded and seized by UK Royal Marines included the United States trying every tactic short of military intervention to halt its path, from pressuring Gibraltar courts to issuing a ship “seizure warrant” to offering a bounty, to even bribing the ship’s captain with millions of dollars.

But with Bolton out as national security adviser, it appears President Trump is ready for fresh, direct negotiations with Iran’s leadership, which is rumored to even include the possibility of easing sanctions.

END

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1098 UP .0043 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.98 DOWN 0.201 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2449   UP   0.0121  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3266 UP .0014 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 22.42 POINTS OR 0.15% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 265.06 POINTS OR 0.98%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0172%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 265.06 POINTS OR 0.98%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.42 POINTS OR 0.75%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 17% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 228.68  POINTS OR 1.05%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1505.30

silver:$18.15-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.80% !!! UP 3 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.28 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 98.03 DOWN 28 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.32% UP 9 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.15%  UP 7   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.30%//UP 8 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.88 UP 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 58 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.45% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.33% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1067  UP     .0011 or 11 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.17 DOWN .200 OR YEN UP 20  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2464 UP .0134 POUND UP 134  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 57 basis points to 1.3268

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0787    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0322  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.6807 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.15%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 9 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.87 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.35 UP 9 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.22 DOWN 8  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 22.79  0.31%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 58.28 POINTS OR .47%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 12.60 POINTS 0.22%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 55.60 POINTS or 0.61%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 98.24 POINTS OR 0.44%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 55.02 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 60.23 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    64.23  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.56 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 56 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO.-45  FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  54.99//

 

 

BRENT :  60.25

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.90 UP 13 BASIS PTS…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.37  UP 11 BASIS PTS…

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1076 ( UP 20   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.11 DOWN .067 (YEN UP 6 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.21 DOWN 10 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2492 UP 163  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.6834

 

 

the Russian rouble 64.34   UP 0.45 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 45 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3283 DOWN 71 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0787  (ONSHORE)/

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0479 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.45%

 

The Dow closed UP 13.85 POINTS OR 0.37%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 36.18 POINTS OR 0.13%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.85 CLOSED DOWN .37

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.118%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Soar Near Record Highs Despite Bond Bloodbath, Momo Meltdown

Quite a week…

The biggest quant quake since 2009 (and 2002)

Source: Bloomberg

as Momentum collapsed…

Source: Bloomberg

And the antithesis of the momo massacre, value had its best week on record…

Source: Bloomberg

And relative to one another, it was a bloodbath…

Source: Bloomberg

And linked to this destruction, 30Y yields (amid record issuance) soared a stunning 33bps this week – second biggest yield spike since 2009…

Source: Bloomberg

zerohedge@zerohedge

stocks from LOD to HOD in a few minutes in another perfectly normal move

Monday Morning Macro@MacroMorning

…while Treasuries & Momentum stocks maintain a perfectly reasonable ~90% correlation. 🔥💵🔥

View image on Twitter

But apart from that – global stocks rallied.

China ended higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Europe soared…

Source: Bloomberg

And US equities surged led by Trannies and Small Caps, each of which was panic-bid at every day’s open. The Dow is up 8 days in a row. Nasdaq underperformed on the week…

That is the best week for Small Caps since Dec 2016 (and best for Trannies since Dec 2017)

Very narrow range in Dow futs in the day session (having tried and failed to break to new highs numerous times)…

The driver of the Trannies/Small Caps surge was a huge short-squeeze…

Source: Bloomberg

The biggest weekly squeeze since Trump’s election…

Source: Bloomberg

September has seen a massive shift into cyclical stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

Bank stocks soared this week (as rates rose and the curve steepened)…

Source: Bloomberg

…but note below they are merely back at a critical level of resistance…

Source: Bloomberg

The week was an utter bloodbath for bondholders (yields are up 8 days in a row)…

Source: Bloomberg

Just as the start of August sparked a panic-buying period for bonds, so September has seemingly sparked the exact opposite with a huge retracement so far…

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y Yield is testing critical technical levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Some might argue the 10Y has a long way to go…

Source: Bloomberg

But don’t listen to Jamie Dimon: In 2018, he predicts 10Y yields will hit 4%, 10Y yield drops to all time low. In 2019, he says JPM preparing for 0% rates on 10Y, 10Y yield soars most in years.

Meanwhile, elsewhere in bond land, that 100-year maturity Austrian bond (which was up 85% YTD, is now in a bear market, down 21% from the highs)…

Source: Bloomberg

The US yield curve (3m10Y) remains inverted but had the biggest weekly steepening since June 2013…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar slipped lower the second week in a row, testing one-month lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable soared this week – its best since May – as BoJo faced defeat and a no-deal brexit was believed to be less likely…

Source: Bloomberg

Offshore Yuan ended the week stronger than the Yuan fix

Source: Bloomberg

This is the strongest offshore yuan has been relative to the fix since Dec 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan appears to have caught up to Bitcoin’s stability…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were mixed with Bitcoin down on the week and Altcoins up led by Ethereum…

Source: Bloomberg

But Bitcoin held above $10,000 for now…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil had a volatile week as copper surged but PMs got pummeled today (most notably silver)…

Source: Bloomberg

Soft Commodities soared 5.2% this week, its best rally since May and snapping 10 straight losses in what was the longest losing streak since at least 1991.

Source: Bloomberg

With the surge in rates this week, the volume of global negative-yielding debt tumbled, and gold tracked it lower…

Source: Bloomberg

But it was silver that was monkeyhammered most…

Smashing Gold/Silver dramatically higher this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, straight from the WTF world we live in, Greek 10Y Yields are now below US 10Y Yields for the first time since 2007…

Source: Bloomberg

And the market is starting to ease off its pressure on The Fed as it now prices in less than 2 rate-cuts by year-end (from more than 3 in July)…

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

This will not be to Trump’s liking: core retail sales disappoint.  This is the backbone of USA GDP

(zerohedge)

Core Retail Sales Disappoints, July ‘Web Sales’ Downwardly Revised

After a huge surprise beat in July, retail sales growth was expected to slow in July on the back of Amazon’s Prime Day demand pull-forward. Also, weighing on sentiment was the fact thatBofA card spending data also showed that August was a difficult month for the retailers, and the bank expects to similarly see a weak retail sales report from the Census Bureau on Friday.

However, headline retail sales printed a better than expected 0.4% rise MoM (+0.2% exp)…

Source: Bloomberg

But core Retail Sales (ex Autos/Gas) disappointed, unchanged on the month…

Source: Bloomberg

Sales in the closely watched “control group” subset – which some analysts view as a more reliable gauge of underlying consumer demand – increased 0.3%, matching projections. The measure excludes food services, car dealers, building-materials stores and gasoline stations.

Non-Store Retail sales were revised dramatically lower from a 2.8% MoM surge in July to +1.7%, followed by a +1.6% MoM rise in August… (but remains up 16% YoY)

Source: Bloomberg

Ex Autos, sales were weak:

  • Furniture stores -0.5%
  • Food and beverage stores -0.2%
  • Gasoline stations -0.9%
  • Clothing stores -0.9%
  • General merchandise stores -0.3%
  • Restaurants -1.2%

 

On a year over year basis, retail sales (headline and core) are accelerating…

Source: Bloomberg

The report suggests another solid quarter of household consumption, which grew in the April-June period at the fastest pace since 2014.

Along with record high stocks, sounds like the perfect time to cut rates.

end
China continues to send its deflation to the rest of the world as import/export prices tumbles.  Trump is so far correct that tariffs are not hurting the USA
(zerohedge)

Import/Export Prices Tumble For 4th Month In A Row

So much for the trade war-driven inflation that anti-Trump-ers have screamed about, both import and export prices in August declined more than expected, extending their annual declines to a fourth straight month.

  • Import prices dropped 0.5% MoM (-2.0% YoY)
  • Export prices dropped 0.6% MoM (-1.4% YoY)

The 4th month in a row of YoY deflation…

Source: Bloomberg

As China exports the most deflation since July 2007…

Source: Bloomberg

So Trump remains right (for now), the US consumer is not paying higher prices due to his tariffs.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

USA trucking industry is in shambles: another 4500 lose their jobs in August

(zerohedge)

4,500 US Truckers Lose Their Jobs In August Amid Freight Recession 

The US trucking industry had a blockbuster year in 2018, as high demand for freight allowed transportation companies to expand fleets. But since freight demand was artificial, sparked by importers pulling forward to get ahead of tariffs, the good times were destined to end and end rather sharply.

According to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the boom in trucking jobs could be over. More than 4,500 truckers lost their jobs in July and August as the freight industry continued trending lower.

This was the first time the BLS slashed trucking jobs since March when about 1,200 were laid off. The latest cut was the biggest since April 2018, when about 5,500 truckers lost their jobs.

Donald Broughton, principal and managing partner of research firm Broughton Capital, told FOX Business that in 1H19 nearly 640 trucking firms failed. That equates to 20,000 trucks have been pulled off the road.

 

In 2018, only 310 trucking companies failed, which points to an accelerating trend that could transform into a major bust cycle for the industry in 2020.

“This has to do with the spot market,” American Trucking Associations chief economist Bob Costello told FOX Business. “Those fleets that are primarily in the spot market are facing volumes that are down nearly 50% and rates that are down nearly 20%.”

As previously reported, we’ve detailed how a freight recession continues to gain momentum through the end of summer, likely to continue through fall into 1H20.

And we’ve routinely pointed out that freight is a leading indicator of where the economy could be headed. At least 70% of domestic goods are moved on heavy-duty trucks, so when freight companies are cutting their workforce – it’s typically the onset of an economic downturn.

As far as a downturn, the Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers index plunged to 49.1 in August, the first time a contraction has been seen since 2016. The index printed below 50 suggests a manufacturing recession is developing. Data also showed new orders dropped to a seven-year low, while the production index hit 2015 lows. So it makes sense why trucking jobs are being slashed, it’s because of manufacturing output is slowing, which requires fewer trucks to haul goods.

And to make matters worse, ACT Research warned that last year’s surge in trucking demand has led to overcapacity for the industry, could depress freight rates for the next several years. About 6% more capacity was brought online last year, or about 90,000 heavy-duty trucks. Production of heavy-duty trucks could reach 350,000 vehicles this year, the second-highest level since 2006.

What’s new in this report is that trucking layoffs are increasing – and it’s the overall growth rate cycle downturn in employment that could start weighing on consumer sentiment and ultimately shift the economy into a full-blown recession sometime next year or the year after.

end

The FBI has finally agreed to name the Saudi official who helped the 9/11 attackers.  What took them so long.

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

McCabe has been notified that his appeal to avoid criminal prosecution has been rejected.  So the fun begins

(zerohedge)

McCabe Criminal Indictment Appeal Rejected; DOJ Cleared To Prosecute

The Justice Department on Thursday notified attorneys for former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe that his appeal to avoid criminal prosecution has been rejected, according to Bloomberg, citing a source close to McCabe’s legal team.

The decision comes roughly a month after McCabe filed a wrongful termination lawsuit against the DOJ and Attorney General William Barr, after an internal investigation into media leaks resulted in his firing.

The U.S. attorney’s office for the District of Columbia informed McCabe’s legal team last month that charges against McCabe were being recommended, according to a person familiar with the matter.

McCabe and his legal team met with Deputy Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen and the U.S. attorney, Jessie Liu, on Aug. 21 to appeal the recommendation, according to the person.

McCabe’s lawyers still have the right to request a meeting with Barr over the matter, the person said. –Bloomberg

The 51-year-old McCabe was fired DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz issued a criminal referral based on findings that he “made an unauthorized disclosure to the news media and lacked candor – including under oath – on multiple occasions.”

As we noted last month when he filed the lawsuit, McCabe authorized an F.B.I. spokesman and attorney to tell Devlin Barrett of the Wall St. Journal, just days before the 2016 election, that the FBI had not put the brakes on a separate investigation into the Clinton Foundation – at a time in which McCabe was coming under fire for his wife taking a $467,500 campaign contribution from Clinton proxy pal, Terry McAuliffe.

Then he lied about it to the inspector general four times.

In his defense, McCabe said said that his boss – former FBI Director James Comey, knew about and authorized the leak – a claim Comey denies.

Ryan Saavedra

@RealSaavedra

: Statement from Andrew McCabe’s attorney claims McCabe told @Comey repeatedly that he was working with The Wall Street Journal.

View image on Twitter

Looks like McCabe will need to dig a little deeper into his $540,000 legal defense GoFundMe launched in the wake of his firing – less than two days before he was set to retire and receive his full retirement package.

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

The King Report September 13, 2019 Issue 6091                                                                                Independent View of the News

As expected and DEMANDED, the ECB cut its deposit rate 10bps to -.50 and reinstituted QE, to the tune of €20B per month – open ended, commencing on November 1.

Anyone with a modicum of financial literacy knows that ECB NIRP is killing European banks.  The spread lending business cannot survive on negative rates.  The lending spread is too small

ECB officials and academics’ solution to the negative rates (NIRP) problem for banks is ‘tiering’ – exempting some deposits from negative rates.  So, ‘tiering’ was announced on Thursday.

Die Welt’s @Schuldensuehner: ECB announces tiering details. Exempt tier will be remunerated at annual rate of 0%. Two-tier system will first be applied in 7th maintenance period of 2019 starting on 30 Oc2019. Multiplier that will be applicable as of that maintenance period will be set at 6, higher than exp.

ECB is probably not happy w/reaction in bank share prices, despite tiering, & change in TLTRO terms, Citi says. That’s a pretty typical reaction to ECB meetings but it remains to be seen if this is in fact reflection of persistence of easing or mainly profit-taking after rally

Italian banks rallied on the cheaper loans; but DB declined.

July Eurozone industrial production declined 0.4% m/m and -2.0% y/y.  -0.1% and -1.4% were expected.

When ESZs headed south on profit taking after Draghi, Team Trump saved stocks.

@realDonaldTrump: European Central Bank, acting quickly, Cuts Rates 10 Basis Points. They are trying, and succeeding, in depreciating the Euro against the VERY strong Dollar, hurting U.S. exports…. And the Fed sits, and sits, and sits. They get paid to borrow money, while we are paying interest!

    It is expected that China will be buying large amounts of our agricultural products!

In response to a question about Trump’s allegation of depreciating the euro, Draghi risibly claimed that the ECB does not target currency rates.

Trump Advisers Considering Interim China Deal to Delay Tariffs

Trump administration officials have discussed offering a limited trade agreement to China that would delay and even roll back some U.S. tariffs for the first time in exchange for Chinese commitments on intellectual property and agricultural purchases…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/trump-advisers-consider-interim-china-trade-deal-to-delay-tariffs

For the umpteenth time, Trump has retreated on trade.  Xi knows that Trump is his hand puppet now.

China, U.S. Showing a Little Goodwill as Trade Talks Near

China is considering whether to permit renewed imports of American farm goods including soybeans and pork… The Ministry of Commerce said Thursday Chinese companies have started inquiring about prices for U.S. agricultural products including soybeans and pork…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/china-is-considering-u-s-farm-imports-as-goodwill-before-talks

As we keep harping, China cannot fool with its food imports.  You’d think Trump would know this.

Ahead of trade talks, China makes biggest U.S. soybean purchases since June – trader

Privately run Chinese firms bought at least 10 boatloads of U.S. soybeans on Thursday, the country’s most significant purchases since at least June… at more than 600,000 tonnes were the largest by Chinese private importers in more than a year, are slated for shipment from U.S. Pacific Northwest export terminals from October to December…   https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-soybeans/exclusive-ahead-of-trade-talks-china-makes-biggest-us-soybean-purchases-since-june-traders-idUSKCN1VX2ER

“Absolutely Not”: Stocks Tumble After White House Denies It Is Considering Interim Trade Deal

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/stocks-soar-report-trump-advisors-consider-interim-china-deal-delay-t

At midday, reports surfaced that indicated that Draghi lied about the ECB backing for QE.  Draghi told the world that there was wide vocal support for QE, so no vote was needed.  A few hours later, ECB officials told the world that Draghi lied.  Ergo, Draghi’s Farewell will go down in infamy.

Draghi Faced Unprecedented ECB Revolt as Core Europe Resisted QE [11:53 ET]

  • France, Germany, Netherlands opposed immediate QE resumption
  • ECB Markets Chief Benoit Coeure was also against the move

Other dissenters included, but weren’t limited, to their colleagues from Austria and Estonia, as well as members on the ECB’s Executive Board including Sabine Lautenschlaeger and the markets chief, Benoit Coeure, the officials said…

    “There was more diversity of views on APP. But then, in the end, a consensus was so broad there was no need to take a voteSo the decision in the end showed a very broad consensusAs I said, there was no need to take a vote. There was such a clear majority.” Mario Draghi, Sept. 12 press conference in Frankfurt…  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/draghi-faced-unprecedented-ecb-revolt-as-core-europe-resisted-qe

ESUs, which yielded to ESZs as the front month during US trading, whipped wildly from the ECB Communique release until the NYSE close.  As we expected, a significant amount of traders sold the rally on the ECB news.  However, the latest US-China trade hype & hope induced algos and traders to buy.

Gold peaked at 8:38 ET (1532.20).  Gold traders waited for Draghi’s press conference and then unloaded.

Traders Pare Bets on 2019 Fed Easing on Possible China Deal

  • Futures show about 54 basis points additional cuts by year-end
  • Quarter-point reduction on Sept. 18 is still priced in

January fed funds futures indicate a rate of about 1.60% at the end of 2019, compared with 1.575% at the close of Wednesday’s session. With an effective fed funds rate at 2.13%, that implies around 54 basis points of additional Fed reductions this year…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/traders-pare-bets-on-2019-fed-easing-on-possible-china-deal

Lost in the euphoria of the ECB stimuli and the latest US-China kabuki dance is the fact the US August Core CPI increased 0.3% m/m and 2.4% y/y, the largest increase since September 2008.  0.2% m/m and 2.3% y/y were expected.  Headline CPI increased the expected 0.1% m/m.

U.S. Core Inflation Exceeds Forecasts as Medical-Care Costs Jump [0.7%, biggest since 2016]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/u-s-core-inflation-picks-up-more-than-forecast-to-one-year-high

Initial Jobless Claims fell to 204k from 219k.  215k was expected.  No sign of recession here!

The Treasury auction of $16B of 30s, the final tranche, was a tad soft: 2.27% vs. 2.254% WI.

You might be talking to robots at McDonald’s drive-thrus soon

McDonald’s this week took a step toward automating how it handles your order when it acquired artificial intelligence company Apprente.  The Silicon Valley-based startup was founded in 2017 to create voice-based platforms for “complex, multilingual, multi-accent and multi-item conversational ordering,” which McDonald’s plans to incorporate in its drive-thrus initially…

https://www.msn.com/en-us/foodanddrink/restaurantsandnews/you-might-be-talking-to-robots-at-mcdonalds-drive-thrus-soon/ar-AAH8pHC?li=BBnb7Kw&ocid=U452DHP

Elizabeth Warren proposes sweeping increase in Social Security benefits, financed by wealth taxes

An immediate benefit increase of $200 per month for current and future beneficiaries.  Warren also proposes new rules that would provide additional benefit increases for low-income, female, disabled, minority, and former government worker beneficiaries…

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/12/elizabeth-warren-proposes-sweeping-increase-in-social-security-benefits-financed-by-wealth-taxes.html

Today – Due to predictable profit taking after the ECB Communique and Draghi’s deceitful press conference, the traders were not able to push to the S&P 500 Index to a new all-time high (3027.98).

Thus, the main scheme for today will be the usual suspects trying to force the S&P 500 Index to a new high to induce greater fools to buy the breakout.  Astute traders will carefully scrutinize the action near a new high because a failure or false breakout with a sudden reversal could instigate spirited selling.

Be alert for the Friday afternoon rally that precedes expiry week!

US attorney recommends proceeding with charges against McCabe, as DOJ rejects last-ditch appeal   https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-attorney-recommends-proceeding-with-charges-against-mccabe-as-doj-rejects-last-ditch-appeal

The looming McCabe indictment is just a preliminary bout.  It’s due to allegedly fibbing during the IG’s investigation.  The next shoe will be the IG report on FISA abuses.  The Main Event is Durham vs. et al.

@JackPosobiec: Daily reminder that Comey, Andrew McCabe, and Peter Strzok were running the FBI

Rod Rosenstein Authorized Mueller to Investigate Flynn’s Son, Sidney Powell Says

“We know that Mr. Mueller got a letter from Mr. Rosenstein that allowed him to target Michael Flynn Jr., and there was significant pressure to enter a guilty plea while they were hiding all the evidence that showed he had not been an agent of Russia, that there were no Logan Act violations,” Powell told Hannity.  Hannity asked Powell about the possibility that Flynn took a plea deal in order to protect his son from being prosecuted. Powell did not confirm Hannity’s scenario, but suggested it was possible…

    “I don’t want to speak now to things that are not a matter of public record, but stay tuned because more and more will become apparent as we proceed through the litigation.”… “The plan, at least right now anyway, is not to withdraw the guilty plea, per se, but to have the entire prosecution dismissed because of egregious misconduct,” she told Hannity…

https://dailycaller.com/2019/09/11/flynn-lawyer-rosenstein-mueller/

U.S. declassifies key name [Saudi official] in Saudi-9/11 suit, but won’t release it publicly

The long-awaited decision involved whether to disclose the name of a person who allegedly directed two men in California who assisted hijackers in the 9/11 attack

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/trump-admin-decision-expected-disclosing-key-name-9-11-suit-n1053201

@JackPosobiec: 25 years ago in 1994, Forrest Gump, Jurassic Park, Shawshank Redemption, Lion King, and Pulp Fiction were all in theaters at the same time.  Compare to Hollywood today

Swedish journalist @PeterSweden7: So far this year in Sweden:

– 182 shootings.

– 120 explosions.

– Cars being set on fire every night.

– 21 women raped every day on average in 2018.

This is madness.

end

Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter  of USAWatchdog

(Greg Hunter)

Biden Survives Dem Debate, Indictments for FBI’s McCabe, Economic Update

By Greg Hunter On September 13, 2019

If the Democrat candidates for president wanted frontrunner Joe Biden knocked out of the race, they did not get their wish. The headline is Biden may not have been stellar, but he held his own against the field. In my estimation, there was really no real standout during the debates. There was just more Marxist/communist/socialist ideas proposed with few details on how to pay for it all. Of course, gun control was a major topic, which is a hallmark of genocide and Marxism. In all, a pretty unappealing list of ideas from a very unappealing field.

Former FBI Assistant Director Andrew McCabe looks like he will be indicted by the Department of Justice (DOJ). This revelation comes after the DOJ rejected McCabe’s appeal to avoid criminal prosecution. McCabe is on record saying he basically would not go down alone if charged for things like lying to investigators. This was an effort to conceal how key government officials invented the total hoax of Donald Trump colluding with the Russians to win the 2016 Presidential election. Legal experts say this is the beginning of many charges coming for the “Russia Hoax” conspiracy perpetrators.

Many are touting the strong economy in America, while others are signaling there is a recession coming. What’s going on? You will get an economic update.

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

(You Tube did it again. It demonetized this video. It must be important. Enjoy!!)

World economic news:

Well that is all for today

I will see you Monday night.

 

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