SEPT 16/THREE MEMBERS FROM JPMORGAN CHARGED WITH FRAUD AND MANIPULATION OF THE PRECIOUS METALS: IT LOOKS LIKE DEPT OF JUSTICE GOING AFTER JPM FOR RICO CHARGES WHICH WILL BE FASCINATING TO WATCH/MISSILES HIT SAUDI ARABIA PROBABLY FOR IRANIAN HELD TERRITORY IN IRAQ AND THAT SENDS OIL SKYROCKETING, GOLD/SILVER HIGHER AND THE DOW FLOUNDERING//CHINA REPORTS DISMAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION PLUS OTHER POOR REPORTS RE LAST MONTH//FOR SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT PLUS THE KING REPORT//

 

 

GOLD$1504.00 UP 11.75 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.94 UP 41 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1498.60

 

silver:  $17.86

As probably many of you have already heard of the huge missile attack on the all important Saudi oil refiners in Riyadh. The attacks came from the north which probably means that it originated in Shiite territory inside Iraq. The area from which the missiles were fired came from area controlled by the Iranian National Guard. Judging by the sophistication of the hits,  you can bet the farm at it was Iranian Guard missiles and not the unsophisticated Houthis rebel tribal stuff.

 

I pointed out the following to you on Friday but it is worth repeating:

 

“It is important to understand that we are dealing with official sector raids with their dirty work accomplished by the banks. The front running by banks is minimal as they know this will ultimately fail.

The problem the official sector has is only one:  they are offering ( short selling) massive paper contracts and their hope is that nobody is in the wings picking up that paper and tendering it for metal.

 

Friday is a good day for the bankers /official sector) to raid as nobody can tender on Saturday.  However their worries become real on Monday.”

It seems today that our official sector/bankers were caught off guard with respect to the Saudi Arabia missile attacks.

I can assure you that the derivative are in the state of shambles today.  Bankers koathe big advance days as they do not have enough time to unload some of their risk. Right now they are all on life support courtesy of our official sector which will explain why there is no position limits for them.

 

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 0/1

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,490.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/13/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 09/17/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 1 1
MONTH TO DATE: 1,724

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT CONTRACT: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 100 OZ (0.00311 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1724 NOTICES FOR 172400 OZ  (5.3623 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR SEPT

 

 

95 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 475,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 8197 for   40,985,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10299 UP 1 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10126 DOWN 173

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A MUCH SMALLER THAN EXPECTED  SIZED 1818 CONTRACTS FROM 217,690 DOWN TO 216,366 DESPITE THE HUGE 57 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

 FOR SEPT  0, DEC:  1900 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  3342 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1900 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1900 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 9.50 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 57 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

42.355   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

WE AGAIN HAD  SOME ATTEMPTED COVERING OF BANKER SHORTS  AT THE SILVER COMEX YESTERDAY AS THE 7TH CONSECUTIVE RAID ORCHESTRATED BY THE CROOKED BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR ENDED IN SUCCESS FOR THEM WITH RESPECT TO PRICE BUT NOT IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST WHICH WAS THEIR GAME PLAN…TO FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS (MEGA STOP LOSSES ETC). THAT ENDED IN BITTER FAILURE FOR THEM AS NOBODY IN THE SILVER ARENA ARE LEAVING.

 

THE LIQUIDATION OF COMEX OI OF SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED AND WE WILL NOW COMMENCE WITH THE ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADERS GOLD OPEN INTEREST

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT:

21,416 CONTRACTS (FOR 10 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 21,416 CONTRACTS) OR 107.08 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2141 CONTRACTS OR 10.71 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  107.88 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 15.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1656.70   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1657, DESPITE THE MASSIVE 57 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1900 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE SURPRISINGLY GAINED: 82 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1900 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1818  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 57 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.53 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! MUCH TO THE OFFICIAL SECTOR’S SURPRISE: NOBODY LEFT THE SILVER ARENA.

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.081 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 155% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 95 NOTICE(S) FOR 475,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/  SEPT 42.355 MILLION OZ// 
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SURPRISINGLY SMALL 1818 CONTRACTS, TO 621,630 DESPITE THE  $7.75 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// /

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5090 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  5090 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 621,630,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SHOCKING GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3083 CONTRACTS: 1818 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 5090 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 3083 CONTRACTS OR 308,300 OZ OR 9.589 TONNES.  FRIDAY WE HAD A  LOSS OF $7.75 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT HUGE LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 9.589  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER TRYING TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE WITH MUCH SUCCESS. AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 9.589  TONNES!!!!!!. THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON BUT LIKE SILVER IT WAS TO NO AVAIL.  OUR BANKER FRIENDS/OFFICIAL SECTOR ARE GAINING NOTHING WITH THEIR CONTINUAL RAIDS. I GUESS THE TROUBLE FOR THEM HAVE STARTED TODAY (MONDAY) WHEN SOME LONGS ARE TURNING IN THEIR PAPER FOR REAL PHYSICAL METAL.

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 71,924 CONTRACTS OR 7,192,400 oz OR 223.71 TONNES (10 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 7192 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 223.71 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 223.71/3550 x 100% TONNES =6.30% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4375.32  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 1818 DESPITE THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK FRIDAY($7.75)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5090 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5090 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A SURPRISING GAIN OF 5,115 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5090 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 1818 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 9.589 TONNES). ..AND THIS STRONG INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE  LOSS IN PRICE OF $7.75 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  1 notice(s) filed upon for 100 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD... THIS MAKES A LOT OF SENSE!!!:…

WITH GOLD UP 11.75 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

WE HAD A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF GOLD EQUAL TO 5.86 TONNES

INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY: THIS MAKES A LOT OF SENSE AS WELL???

A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF: 2.899 MILLION OZ OF SILVER

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED  1818 CONTRACTS from 216,199 DOWN TO 216,366 AND FURTHER FROM A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR SEPT. 0; FOR DEC  1900  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1900 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 1818  CONTRACTS TO THE 1900 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE STRANGELY RECEIVED A GAIN OF 82 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 0.41 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ// AND FINALLY SEPT  2019: 42.355 MILLION OZ//

 

 

 

 

RESULT: A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED  DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE HUGE LOSS OF 57 CENTS  IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1900 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.48 POINTS OR 0.02%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 228.14 POINTS OR 0.82%   /The Nikkei closed UP 228.08 POINTS OR 0.83%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .02%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0658 /Oil UP TO 59.49 dollars per barrel for WTI and 66.25 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0658 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0631 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

The yuan extends losses from Friday after they release a series of huge disappointments.  See below

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

Meet the genius behind Boris Johnson…Domenic Cummings, a gentleman who espouses the free enterprise spirit. Cummings must deliver a Brexit and this will then allow the UK to escape the grips of the socialists

 

a must read..

(courtesy Alasdair Macleod)

ii)Stupid and costly.  Bankrupt Italy is now reversing course and welcomes migrants

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Major missile attacks on huge Saudi oil refiners.  Seems to have come from the North

(COURTESY HENRY MARTIN/Mail on line)

and a special thanks to G for sending this to us

ii)Saudi Arabia/Iran/Iraq

zero hedge reports on the above big story , Saturday

(zerohedge)

iii)Israel/Syria/Russia

Russia thwarts any new Israeli attacks on Syria

(zerohedge)

iv)USA/IRAN.

TRUMP claims he is locked and loaded ready to attack the perpetrator of the Saudi attacok

(zerohedge)

v)Iran

Iran initially tries to release pressure on them as they are set to release the UK flagged tankers.

(zerohedge)

vi)Then..

Iran/UAE
Then to complicate things, Iran seizes an Emirates flagged ship in the Straits of Hormuz
(zerohedge)

vii)The Houthis claim responsibility but the missiles seemed to have come from the north.  And the sophistication of the attack and precision can only by the Iranian guard stationed in Iraq

(zerohedge)

vii)Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia delays their IPO but also states that the damage is extensive and might take longer to put back on stream

(zerohedge)

viii)Bill Blain discusses why someone does not ask the Saudi’s why they are doing so badly against a totally unsophisticated Houthi tribesmen.  Blain is in our camp:  the attacks were very sophisticated as well as arriving from the North.  Which means that it was the Iranian Shiites inside Iraq (and under the Revolutionary Guard) which carried out the attack.  This is why Israel is trying to bomb these Iranian proxies out of existence.

(Bill Blain)

IX)IRAN/USA

Before the USA attacks Iran, Trump wants definitive proof that they were behind the attacks and that makes sense
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

The global slowdown is also causing a massive shortage of dollars as a reserve currency and that is sucking out the blood of trade

(Jeffrey Snider)

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil initially rises by 20% on news of the Iranian bombing of the Saudi oil facilities but it clams down a bit when Trum announces he will sell oil from the SPR

(zerohedge|)

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)This is true: China and Russia are buying all the gold they can get their hands on and do not care about price.

(MarketWatch//Saefong)

ii)Andy Schectman thanks GATA for exposing the comprehensive deception being waged against gold and silver by governments, central banks and their allies

(Andy Schectman/GATA)

iii)The continued uSA dollar strength prompts speculation on whether Trump will intervene in the markets

(Wall Street Journal/Davidson)

iv)Investors have been given a warning to keep a lid on ambitions because our sovereigns are still gold/silver rigging

(Sanderson London’s Financial Times)

v)Jim Rickards covers gold, the upcoming financial crisis and what to expect

(Jim Rickards/GATA)

vi)Ronan Manly reports that the Rothschild’s will rejoin the London bullion Market association this long month long enough to celebrate the 100th anniversary of daily gold price rigging in London.  It will take place in Rothschilds London offices

(Ronan Manly Bullion star)

vii)Three men, all belonging to JPMorgan, charged with manipulation of metals, the chief who replaced Blythe Mathers, Nowak, a very big trader Greg Smith to whom the CFTC was notified by Andrew Maguire in 2010 of his misdeeds  and another trader Chris Jordan.

(bloomberg/GATA

vii b)An absolute joke:  JPMorgan has been fined a few pennies  (1.1 million dollars) for being too slow to disclose 89 internal reviews or allegations of misconduct by financial advisers over than past 6 years

(zerohedge)

viii)Simon Black explains why we must hold gold

(Simon Black)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/this morning/USA

more official sector intervention

(zerohedge)

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

In a nutshell, barely above zero//Empire Manufacturing Report

(Empire or NY Manufacturing Survey Report)

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)More retail bricks and mortar carnage as Forever 21 is about the bite the dust

(zerohedge)

b)Purdue Pharma files for bankruptcy which should be a very messy affair

(zerohedge)
c)Trump praises USA energy independence.  That is true but the shale industry needs 100 dollar per barrel to stay profitable.  Once Saudi oil comes back on stream, oil will collapse in price making shale unprofitable

(zerohedge)

d)The huge funding requirement of the Government is playing havoc to our repo or (collateral market).  There seems to be a huge shortage of proper collateral as well as USA dollar reserves (see Jeffrey Snider)

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Horowitz completes his FISA abuse probe and it is to be made public

(zerohedge)

b)The left will do just about anything.  The New York Times has now been forced to issue a major correction to the Kavanaugh hit piece on Friday.

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY 2007 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 621,630 DESPITE THE LOSS OF $7.75 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5090 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR SEPT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 5090   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5090 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 3083 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5090 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A TINY SIZED 25 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD IN OUR 7TH CONSECUTIVE RAID YESTERDAY.  THE BANKERS SUCCEEDED IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE AS WE ENDURED ANOTHER OF THOSE FRIDAY RAIDS. JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE AGAIN UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY  UNSUSPECTING LONGS. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  3083 CONTRACTS OR 308,300 OZ OR 9.589 TONNES.

We are now in the NON  active contract month of SEPT and here the open interest stands at 25 CONTRACTS and  we LOST 6 contracts.  We had 6 notices filed yesterday so despite the raid and liquidation of contracts we gained 0contracts or an additional NIL oz of gold that will stand for delivery at the comex and the siege continues as the story for physical gold is the name of the game despite the criminal antics of the bankers.

The next active delivery month is October and here the OI FELL by 924 contracts DOWN to 38,362. The month of November saw a gain of  4 contracts and thus the OI is rises to 160.  The very big December contract month saw its OI RISE by 966 contracts UP to 461,791.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 1 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  600 OZ. (.0186 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1818CONTRACTS FROM 217,690 DOWN TO 216,366 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 57 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//FRIDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.  HERE WE HAVE 389 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 136 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 231 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE AGAIN GAINED A MONSTROUS 95 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 475,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS THEY  LOOK FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS FOR REFUSING ‘TO TRAVEL’ TO LONDON

 

THE NEXT NON ACTIVE CONTRACT MONTH IS OCTOBER AND IT GAINED 26 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1680. NOVEMBER SAW A SMALL GAIN OF 1 CONTRACT TO STAND AT 172. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI FALLS BY 3101 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 165,998.

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 95 notice(s) filed for 475,000 OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 344,665  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  378,619  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  SEPT/GOLD

SEPT 16/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
198.25 oz
Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

2636.382 oz

Brinks

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
1 notice(s)
 100 OZ
(0.00311 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
24 contracts
(2400 oz)
.0746 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1724 notices
172,400 OZ
5.35623 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into Brinks: 2636.382  oz

this physical deposit will be quickly hypothecated and rehypothecated over and over again by the crooks.

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 201.07  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ a tiny amount  arrived   today

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i) Out of Delaware: 198.25 oz

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 198.25  oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today
FOR THE SEPT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1724) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT. (25 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz per contract) equals 174,800 OZ OR 5.4370 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of SEPT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1724 x 100 oz)  + (25)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz )which equals 174,800 oz standing OR 5.4370 TONNES in this  active delivery month of SEPT.

 

We LOST 0 contracts or an additional nil oz will seek metal on this side of the pond instead of morphing over to London.  The gold comex is now under siege for any remaining physical metal.

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 27.153  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING //AUGUST AND 5.4370 TONNES IN SEPT.//

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT AS WELL AS SEPT SO FAR, AND THUS I WILL ADD THE 27.153 TONNES TO THE 5.4370 TONNES (EQUALS 32.590 TONNES) AGAINST THE 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  736,702.381 oz or  22.91 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,098,539.314 oz 251.89 tonnes

IN THE LAST 35 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
SEPT 16 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 15,216.300 oz
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
624,534.04 oz
Brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)
95
CONTRACT(S)
(475,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
294 contracts
 1,470,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  8197 contracts

40,985,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into brinks: 624,534.04 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  624,534.04  oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of Delaware: 15,216.300 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 15,216.300  oz

 

we had 0 adjustment :

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  87.379 million

total dealer + customer silver:  316.797 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER 2019. contract month is represented by 95 contract(s) FOR 475,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 8197 x 5,000 oz = 40,985,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (389) and the number of notices served upon today 95 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2019 contract month: 8197 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (389)- number of notices served upon today (95)x 5000 oz equals 42,355,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month. 

We gained another strong 95 contracts or a huge 475,000 additional oz of silver will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER AND DESPITE THESE PAST MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 95 notice(s) filed for 475,000 OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  103,684 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 118,597 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 118,597 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 593 million  OZ 84.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.86% ((SEPT 16/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.07% to NAV (SEPT 16/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.86%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.09 TRADING 14.60/DISCOUNT 3.23

 

 

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

 

SEPT 16/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A BIG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 12//WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A HUGE 7.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.15 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: I)A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD (LATE YESTERDAY EVENING) AND 2) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES LATE THIS AFTERNOON./INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.17 TONNES

AUGUST 20//WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WE GOT BACK 7.63 TONNES OUT OF 11.11 TONNES LOST ON WEDNESDAY( A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

 

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

SEPT 16/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 874.51 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 664 TRADING DAYS: 60.87 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 564- TRADING DAYS: A NET 105.78 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.899 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION PAPER OZ OF SILVER///INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.425 MILLION PAPER OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.179 MILLION OZ../

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 60 CENTS TODAY: A RATHER TIMID CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 842,000 PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 386.604 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.696 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20.WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 16/: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 15/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 16/2019:

 

 

Inventory 376.502 MILLION OZ

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.07/ and libor 6 month duration 2.07

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .00

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.06%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.05

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -01

gold lending rates are negative or zero for an entire one year out

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Oil Surges 10%, Gold 1% and Silver 2% After Saudi Oil Attacks

◆ Oil surged over 15% after the attacks on the Saudi oil facilities; oil prices are now 10% higher with gold 1% higher and silver over 2% higher

◆ U.S. stock index futures dropped as oil prices surged the most on record; Brent crude soared as much as 19.5% and West Texas Intermediate added 15.5% after a drone strike on a Saudi Arabian oil facility increased already very high geopolitical risks in the “tinder box” Middle East

◆ S&P 500 Index futures were down 0.5% and in Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index dropped 0.5%, led lower by cyclical financial stocks

◆ Fear of an oil price shock is growing and every US and global recession in the past 50 years has been preceded by a spike in oil prices

 

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Oil surges, gold up, stock futures slip after attack on Saudi facility

Oil up over 10% – Crude oil price chart

Trump says US ‘locked and loaded’ after attack on Saudi oil supply

Trump authorized release of oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve if needed to keep markets supplied

Saudi Arabia reportedly aims to restore one-third of lost oil output by Monday

China’s Aug industrial output growth grinds to 17-1/2 year low

Gold’s Significant Role for Central Banks – WGC Research

China and Russia Are Buying Gold, and They Don’t Care How Much It Costs

Why Russian and Chinese central banks will keep buying gold

Golden toilet stolen from Blenheim Palace – Should have went to GoldCore Secure Storage

 

Gold Prices (LBMA – USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)

13-Sep-19 1506.30 1503.10, 1209.41 1208.19 & 1356.88 1358.35
12-Sep-19 1502.95 1515.20, 1219.94 1227.46 & 1362.88 1373.53
11-Sep-19 1493.65 1490.65, 1208.21 1209.07 & 1354.74 1355.90
10-Sep-19 1494.60 1498.25, 1211.52 1211.34 & 1353.51 1357.11
09-Sep-19 1509.95 1509.20, 1223.81 1220.34 & 1368.62 1364.92
06-Sep-19 1504.95 1523.70, 1223.52 1237.09 & 1363.94 1378.49
05-Sep-19 1542.60 1529.10, 1257.06 1238.72 & 1397.44 1380.78
04-Sep-19 1538.80 1546.10, 1265.05 1269.97 & 1397.69 1403.86
03-Sep-19 1532.45 1537.85, 1278.06 1277.80 & 1400.35 1403.44

 

Click here to listen to the latest GoldCore Podcast

Receive our free Daily or Weekly Updates by signing up here and click here to subscribe to GoldCore’s You Tube Channel

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

This is true: China and Russia are buying all the gold they can get their hands on and do not care about price.

(MarketWatch//Saefong)

China and Russia are buying gold and don’t care what it costs

 Section: 

By Myra P. Saefong
MarketWatch.com, New York
Friday, September 13, 2019

Emerging markets have beefed up gold holdings, undeterred by prices near their highest levels in more than six years, as countries such as Russia and China diversify their foreign-exchange reserves—a trend that is likely to continue.

“Central bank buying is, of course, important to the supply/demand dynamic for the metal, but is much more important in terms of sentiment toward the metal,” says Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter. When central banks are “buying as heavily as they are, it provides cover and a rationale for other central banks to do the same.”

… 

Russian central bank gold reserves stand at 2,219.2 metric tons, according to the World Gold Council, based on the latest data available in September from sources including the International Monetary Fund. China’s holdings are at 1,936.5 metric tons.

Given the latest prices, with the most-active gold futures contract settling at $1,503.20 an ounce on Wednesday, and about 32,151 troy ounces in one metric ton, the value of Russia’s gold reserves is at roughly $107 billion.

The moves are due to concerns about the outlook for currencies, including the dollar and the euro, says Mark O’Byrne, research director at GoldCore in Dublin. “While the gold tonnage demand from central banks in recent months has been significant and near records, gold remains a tiny fraction of most central banks’…foreign-exchange reserves,” he says, adding that the trend is “sustainable and indeed may accelerate.”

O’Byrne added that the risk of the trade war descending into a currency war may also be feeding central bank diversification into gold.

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/china-and-russia-buy-gold-in-case-a…

* * *

end

For your enjoyment…

(GATA)

Another BIS swap? Golden toilet stolen from Blenheim Palace

 Section: 

Man, 66, Arrested After L1 Million Golden Toilet Stolen from Blenheim Palace

By Jamie Johnson
The Telegraph, London
Saturday, September 14, 2019

A L1 million solid gold toilet has been stolen from Blenheim Palace in an audacious overnight burglary, police said today.

The 18-carat lavatory, designed by Italian artist Maurizio Cattelan, was part of a new exhibition at the country home where Winston Churchill was born, and was ripped out and driven away in the early hours this morning.

… 

The piece is called “America” and had had been plumbed into the water system so that visitors could fully engage with the artwork, as long as they obeyed a three-minute time slot.

Police have arrested a 66-year-old man in connection with the theft, but confirmed that the golden toilet is still missing and that there was “significant damage and flooding.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/09/14/blenheim-palace-closed-amid-…

* * *

end

Andy Schectman thanks GATA for exposing the comprehensive deception being waged against gold and silver by governments, central banks and their allies

(Andy Schectman/GATA)

Andy Schectman: Gold and the art of financial war revisited

 Section: 

9:56p ET Saturday, September 14, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA doesn’t get invited anymore to financial conferences in Toronto and Vancouver now that touting mining shares takes precedence over warning monetary metals investors about manipulation of the markets by governments and central banks. But at the Sprott Natural Resources Symposium in Vancouver six weeks ago the president of Miles Franklin Precious Metals, Andy Schectman, gave a wonderful presentation about the comprehensive deception being waged against the monetary metals by governments, central banks, and their investment bank allies and thanked GATA for helping to expose it.

Let’s hope that Schectman’s comments don’t get him knocked off the program for next year’s conference.

Schectman’s presentation was titled “Gold and the Art of Financial War Revisited,” it’s 23 minutes long, and it can be viewed at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lT39OQm56kI&feature=youtu.be

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

The continued uSA dollar strength prompts speculation on whether Trump will intervene in the markets

(Wall Street Journal/Davidson)

Strong U.S. dollar prompts speculation about Trump intervention

 Section: 

By Kate Davidson
The Wall Street Journal
Sunday, September 15, 2019

For decades U.S. currency policy was, in effect, to have no policy. Administrations seldom intervened in markets, advised other countries to do the same, and claimed a strong dollar was in the country’s interest.

That is changing. President Trump has already disavowed support for a strong dollar, and officials have considered whether to use currency intervention as a weapon in their trade war.

This has raised a host of questions among investors and traders: How and under what circumstances would U.S. officials intervene? Would it work? What would other countries do in response? …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/strong-u-s-dollar-prompts-speculation-of-tr…

* * *

end

Investors have been given a warning to keep a lid on ambitions because our sovereigns are still gold/silver rigging\(Sanderson London’s Financial Times)

Investors warn gold miners to keep lid on ambitions

 Section: 

By Henry Sanderson and Neil Hume
Financial Times, London
Sunday, September 15, 2019

Gold miners are facing pressure from investors to keep their animal spirits in check as the precious metal trades at its highest levels in six years.

As the industry gathers this week for its annual gold conference in Denver, some of the sector’s largest investors have warned gold miners not to repeat the mistakes of the past.

… 

We don’t want to see the poor decisions that we’ve seen in previous cycles,” said Joe Foster, a fund manager at VanEck in New York. “The emphasis will continue to be on more conservative management styles, in terms of debt and financial management.”

Gold miners have outperformed this year, rallying 31% according to the VanEck Gold Miners Exchange Traded Fund. The gold price has risen 17% to about $1,500 a troy ounce.

But investors are fearful that soaring gold prices will lead to a repeat of the last boom, which peaked in 2011 when they rose above $1,900 a troy ounce. Encouraged by bankers, miners splurged cash on ambitious deals and projects that ultimately destroyed value for investors when gold crashed in 2012.

“The big thing we’d like to see is for companies to grab the margin expansion from higher gold prices and return that to shareholders as dividends,” said Mark Burridge, managing partner and fund manager. “We don’t want to see a massive shift to growth.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/dce12c9a-d57d-11e9-a0bd-ab8ec6435630

* * *

end

Jim Rickards covers gold, the upcoming financial crisis and what to expect

(Jim Rickards/GATA)

Interviewed in Australia, Jim Rickards covers next financial crisis and its ‘Aftermath’

 Section: 

8:21p ET Sunday, September 15, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Author, fund manager, and geopolitical strategist Jim Rickards last week promoted his new book, “Aftermath,” in an interview in Australia with the managing director of SmallCaps.com.au, Filip Karinja, and discussed a variety of topics, including:

— The next world financial crisis.

— Gold’s utility in resetting the world financial system.

… 

The shift of central banks from gold sellers to gold buyers.

— The flight from the U.S. dollar and U.S. control of the world payments system.

— The power of a coalition of nations to outvote the U.S. over any action by the International Monetary Fund.

— And the fragility of civilization when normal supplies of food, water, electricity, and cash are interrupted.

A report on the interview written by SmallCaps.com.au’s managing editor, Lorna Nicholas, is posted here:

https://smallcaps.com.au/jim-rickards-world-unprepared-next-financial-cr…

The interview is 49 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ok73IoKxCss

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Ronan Manly reports that the Rothschild’s will rejoin the London bullion Market association this long month long enough to celebrate the 100th anniversary of daily gold price rigging in London.  It will take place in Rothschilds London offices

(Ronan Manly Bullion star)

 

Ronan Manly: Rothschild rejoins London bullion banks to celebrate a century of market rigging

 Section: 

(1:40a ET Monday, September 16, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star gold researcher Ronan Manly reports today that the Rothschild financial house will rejoin the London Bullion Market Association this month long enough to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the daily gold price fixing in London, with the celebration to take place at Rothschild’s offices adjacent to the Bank of England.

… 

What will be celebrated, as Manly details, is a century of market rigging, much of it out in the open and well-documented if not challenged for its crookedness until lately, when litigation complaining of market rigging seems to be chasing the bullion banks out of the price-fixing business.

Manly’s report is headlined “Rothschild Emerges from the Shadows for the Centenary of the London Gold Fixing” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/rothschild-emerges-from-th…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org


* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellg

end

Three men, all belonging to JPMorgan, charged with manipulation of metals, the chief who replaced Blythe Mathers, Nowak, a very big trader Greg Smith to whom the CFTC was notified by Andrew Maguire in 2010 of his misdeeds  and another trader Chris Jordan.

(bloomberg/GATA

Morgan’s metals desk chief, two others charged with market rigging

 Section: 

JPMorgan Traders Charged by U.S. With Rigging Metals Deals

By Tom Schoenberg
Bloomberg News
Monday, September 16, 2019

Two current and one former precious metals traders at JPMorgan Chase & Co. have been charged with manipulating futures markets in what prosecutors described as a massive, multiyear racketeering conspiracy run out of the bank.

The U.S. Justice Department said today the three men ripped off market participants and even clients as they illegally moved prices for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. One of those indicted is Michael Nowak, 45, who ran JPMorgan’s global precious metals desk. Nowak was placed on leave last month, a person familiar with the matter has said.

… 

Their actions spanned eight years and involved thousands of unlawful trading sequences, the Justice Department said. The men were indicted on multiple fraud and conspiracy charges, including racketeering.

“These charges should leave no doubt that the Department is committed to prosecuting those who undermine the investing public’s trust in the integrity of our commodities markets,” Assistant Attorney General Brian Benczkowski said in a written statement.

While the banks weren’t identified in the Justice Department statement, other documents related to the case identify JPMorgan. The other traders charged were Gregg Smith, 55 and Christopher Jordan, 47. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-16/precious-metals-trade…

Three JPMorgan Traders Charged For “Massive” Gold Market Manipulation Fraud

Many readers wrote us off as conspiracy theorists when we reported on signs of manipulation in the precious metals market. But as it turns out, trading desks at some of the world’s largest banks were deeply involved in what the Department of Justice described as a “massive, multiyear scheme to manipulate the market for precious metals futures contracts and defraud market participants.”

In an indictment unsealed on Monday morning, the DoJ charged Michael Nowak, a JP Morgan veteran and former head of its precious metals trading desk and Gregg Smith, another trader on JPM’s metals desk, in the probe. Both men were put on leave over the summer as the DoJ’s investigation neared its conclusion, and Nowak was previously named in a civil suit brought by the CFTC.

A third trader named in the indictment, Christopher Jordan, traded precious metals at JPM until he left in December 2009. He later traded precious metals at two other banks, Credit Suisse and First New York.

In a press release accompanying the indictment, Assistant Attorney General accused all three men of scheming to manipulate the precious metals market while potentially harming their bank’s clients.

“The defendants and others allegedly engaged in a massive, multiyear scheme to manipulate the market for precious metals futures contracts and defraud market participants,” said Assistant Attorney General Brian A. Benczkowski. “These charges should leave no doubt that the Department is committed to prosecuting those who undermine the investing public’s trust in the integrity of our commodities markets.”

William Sweeney, the Assistant Director in Charge of the FBI’s New York Field Office, added that this manipulation likely impacted “correlated markets and the clients of the bank they represented.”

“Smith, Nowak, Jordan, and their co-conspirators allegedly engaged in a complex scheme to trade precious metals in a way that negatively affected the natural balance of supply-and-demand,” said FBI Assistant Director in Charge William F. Sweeney Jr. of the FBI’s New York Field Office. “Not only did their alleged behavior affect the markets for precious metals, but also correlated markets and the clients of the bank they represented.For as long as we continue to see this type of illegal activity in the marketplace, we’ll remain dedicated to investigating and bringing to justice those who perpetrate these crimes.”

According to Bloomberg, three other banks – Deutsche Bank, HSBC and UBS – agreed to pay $50 million (in total) to settle civil claims by the CFTC. Two former JPM employees who pleaded guilty and contributed evidence against their former colleagues that was used in the indictment.

“While at JPMorgan I was instructed by supervisors and more senior traders to trade in a certain fashion, namely to place orders that I intended to cancel before execution,” said one former trader John Edmonds during an October 2018 hearing after pleading guilty to commodities fraud and conspiracy, BBG reports.

The behavior dates back more than 10 years to 2009, according to chat logs that were shown in the indictment. The conversations exposed in the chat logs show just how blatant the manipulation was, and how little the traders did to conceal it.

One of the traders who participated in the chat shown above was Christian Trunz, who traded precious metals at Bearn Stearns before joining JP Morgan after the crisis. He told a federal judge last month that this type of behavior was openly encouraged on JPM’s trading desks for roughly a decade, and that other traders taught him how to do it. He pleaded guilty to federal fraud charges on Aug. 20, BBG reports.

Another trader said during a plea hearing that he was instructed to bid up the price of futures contracts by placing, then cancelling, bid orders (the literal definition of spoofing) that he never intended to fill.

“I was instructed that if a client wished to sell futures I should simultaneously place both bids and offers with the intent of canceling the bids prior to execution,” Edmonds said during his plea hearing.

Edmonds said the purpose was to falsely transmit liquidity and price information in order to deceive other market participants about the supply and demand so they would trade against the orders that JPMorgan wanted to execute.

“We created market activity which artificially drove the sale price up and induced other market participants to purchase at an inflated price,” he said. Edmonds entered into a cooperation agreement with the CFTC in July.

Since the crisis, regulators around the world have cracked down on manipulation in rates, forex and government bond markets, so it’s not exactly a surprise that this type of behavior was also happening in precious metals. But the brazenness with which traders engaged in such manipulation suggests that they didn’t know what they were doing was illegal or wrong, which, in at least some cases, is probably true.

Read the full indictment below:

u.s. v. Smith – Indictment by Zerohedge on Scribd

end
An absolute joke:  JPMorgan has been fined a few pennies  (1.1 million dollars) for being too slow to disclose 89 internal reviews or allegations of misconduct by financial advisers over than past 6 years
(zerohedge)

J.P.Morgan fined for lax disclosure of misconduct allegations over six years

 Section: 

From Reuters
Monday, September 16, 2019

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-jp-morgan-finra/jpmorgan-is-fined-for…

A unit of JPMorgan Chase & Co. was fined $1.1 million by a U.S. regulator today for being too slow to disclose 89 internal reviews or allegations of misconduct by financial advisers and other employees over six years.

… 

The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) said the alleged misconduct at JPMorgan Securities LLC included misappropriating customer funds, borrowing from customers, forging and altering documents, unauthorized trading, and other activities. It said that when JPMorgan filed the required information with FINRA, it was on average more than two years late.

FINRA said JPMorgan’s disclosure shortfalls occurred from January 2012 to April 2018. JPMorgan did not admit or deny wrongdoing in agreeing to settle.

* * *

end

Wow!!  this just hit me like a ton of bricks:

The Dept of Justice now states (what we have said along) that J.P.Morgan was a “criminal enterprise” and it likes like they are going after them on RICO charges. Rico is a civil statute but with criminal overtones.  Damages are triple

(bloomberg/GATA)

JPMorgan’s metals desk was ‘criminal enterprise,’ Justice Department says

 Section: 

Blythe Masters, here’s a list of countries without extradition treaties with the United States:

https://internationalman.com/articles/which-countries-can-the-nsa-whistl…

* * *

By Tom Schoenberg and David Voreacos
Bloomberg News
Monday, September 16, 2019

U.S. prosecutors took an unusually aggressive turn in their investigation of price fixing at JPMorgan Chase & Co., describing its precious metals trading desk as a criminal enterprise operating inside the bank for nearly a decade.

The prosecutors charged the head of JPMorgan’s global precious metals trading operation and two others on Monday, accusing them of “conspiracy to conduct the affairs of an enterprise involved in interstate or foreign commerce through a pattern of racketeering activity.”

… 

That’s a reference to the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, or RICO, a law often used against organized crime rings. The U.S. has rarely invoked RICO law in big bank cases. Its use suggests that JPMorgan may face deeper legal jeopardy, going beyond the several individuals who have already been prosecuted.

Former prosecutors agreed the move was bold, with at least one questioning whether the Justice Department was overreaching. Others said the use of RICO was merited given the complexity and duration of the manipulation, echoing the U.S. official who announced the charges Monday morning.

“Based on the fact that it was conduct that was widespread on the desk, it was engaged in in thousands of episodes over an eight-year period — that is precisely the kind of conduct that the RICO statute is meant to punish,” Assistant Attorney General Brian Benczkowski told journalists.

“We’re going to follow the facts wherever they lead, whether it’s across desks here or at any other bank or upwards into the financial institution,” he added.

Peter Carr, a Justice Department spokesman, said the RICO law has been invoked in cases involving small trading operations and in corporate-conduct cases. But he and several former prosecutors said they couldn’t recall another use of the law to prosecute traders at a big bank. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-16/jpmorgan-s-metals-des…

iii) Other physical stories:

Simon Black explains why we must hold gold

(Simon Black)

The Price Of Gold Just Hit A Record High…

in Euros

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

48 hours ago, the European Central Bank announced a bonanza stimulus package: interest rate cuts, money printing, quantitative easing, the whole nine yards.

Europe’s economic growth has ground to a halt. The German economy actually shrank last quarter, according to official statistics.

So the European Central Bank is throwing everything including the kitchen sink at this problem. Their stimulus package is like a monetary defibrillator trying to shock Europe’s economies back to growth.

It’s pretty amazing when you think about it: interest rates in Europe are already NEGATIVE. They’ve been cutting rates for years, and it hasn’t worked.

Back in July 2008, the European Central Bank’s main interest rate was 3.25%.

By the end of 2008, it was clear the global economy was slowing down, and the central bank had slashed interest rates to just 1%.

But they kept going.

By 2013, the ECB had reduced its primary interest rate all the way to zero.

And in 2014, they took the unprecedented step of cutting rates even further– to NEGATIVE 0.10%.

European rates have been negative now for FIVE YEARS. Yet Europe’s economies are still in the dog house.

These results completely defy prevailing economic wisdom.

According to the ridiculous playbook that nearly all central bankers use, cutting interest rates is supposed to stimulate economic growth.

If interest rates are lower, it makes it easier and cheaper for people to borrow money. If it’s cheaper to borrow money, people buy more stuff… which creates more economic growth.

But that’s not happening.

They’ve been cutting rates, even below zero, to the point that you can actually get PAID to BORROW money in Europe. Yet those economies are still stagnating.

So the central bank’s solution? If what you’re doing isn’t working, do more of the same!

It’s astonishing how these economists cling their ridiculous theories…

Unsurprisingly, the European prices of both gold and silver shot up this morning.

Gold is now selling in Europe for nearly 1,400 euros as I write this letter— an ALL-TIME high.

That’s because precious metals are a refuge from keeping your savings held hostage by unelected central bankers who can slash interest rates to negative levels and conjure unlimited quantities of paper currency out of thin air.

It’s not just Europe either.

Across the water in the United States, the central bank has already indicated that they’re going to start cutting rates as well… plus they’re facing pressure from the Tweeter-in-Chief to make interest rates negative, just like in Europe.

That’s a big reason why precious metals prices have been climbing so rapidly; in the past two months alone, the silver price is up 22%.

I’ve been talking about this for months, encouraging you to buy gold and silver. But this isn’t over. There’s a lot more monetary insanity to come from the United States and Europe… so gold and silver prices likely still have a lot of room to rise.

(Silver could actually triple in price, and it still wouldn’t beat its previous record high.)

One big driver of gold demand is actually coming from foreign central banks and governments. They can see what’s happening to the US dollar and euro, and they’re keen to diversify their reserve assets away from negative interest rates.

Russia has been on a gold-buying spree lately, gobbling up more than 18 metric tons of gold in the month of June alone, and nearly 100 metric tons since the beginning of 2019.

China has also added 100 metric tons of gold to its foreign reserves since the beginning of 2019.

Even the central bank of Poland has acquired 100 metric tons of gold this year, nearly doubling its gold holdings from last year.

This is a powerful trend that could continue sending prices higher. So it’s still a reasonable time to buy physical gold and silver.

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0658/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0631   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 0.48 POINTS OR 0.02%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 228.68 POINTS OR 1.05%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 228.14 POINTS OR 0.83%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.29/Euro FALLS TO 1.1038

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.15/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.73/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.21 and Brent: 64.13

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.48%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 0.89% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.25%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.37: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.54

3k Gold at $1504.00 silver at: 17.86   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 29/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.08

3m oil into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.73 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9907 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0937 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.48%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.80% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.30%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7189..

Global Markets Slide, S&P Futures Back Under 3000 On Oil Chaos, China Slowdown

On the 11th anniversary of the Lehman default, global stock markets and US equity futures are broadly lower after this weekend’s drone attack on Saudi oil facilities resulted in the biggest oil price surge in history. State energy producer Saudi Aramco lost about 5.7 million barrels a day of output on Saturday after 10 unmanned aerial vehicles struck the world’s biggest crude-processing facility in Abqaiq and the kingdom’s second-largest oil field in Khurais.

 

As extensively documented over the weekend, for oil markets, this was the single worst sudden disruption ever, and while Saudi Arabia may be able to return some supply within days – even though Aramco has said it is “less optimistic” on the pace of oil output recovery – the attacks highlight the vulnerability of the world’s most important exporter. They also revive political risk in prices, with the heightened danger of conflict in a region that holds almost half of global crude reserves.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed credit for the attack, but President Trump has already said that the US is “locked and loaded depending on verification” that Iran staged the attack, an assertion also made by his secretary of state Mike Pompeo and backed by administration officials. However, Saudi Arabia has still not confirmed that it was Iran behind the attack. It wasn’t totally clear to us which way US treasuries would open up this morning as higher Oil is clearly bearish but the geopolitical tensions that this brings, especially as the US is leaning towards putting the blame at Iran’s door, are significant.

“We have never seen a supply disruption and price response like this in the oil market,” said Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG. “Political-risk premiums are now back on the oil-market agenda.”

The shock collapse in Saudi oil output pushed S&P futures back under 3,000 and yields on 10Y Treasurys down 8bps to 1.81%, while the dollar shortage has returned, sending the Bloomberg Dollar index to session highs.

Adding to the downward pressure on risk assets was the latest dismal news from China which saw the country’s economic slowdown deepen in August as core data missed across the board and industrial production tumbled to its weakest 17-1/2 years as reported last night: August industrial output growth unexpectedly weakened to 4.4% in August, the slowest pace since February 2002 and receding from 4.8% in July. Fixed asset investment growth was marginally below market expectations and the July reading. Retail sales growth also moderated significantly on the back of weaker automobile sales. The relentless slowdown has reinforced views that China is likely to cut some key interest rates this week for the first time in over three years to prevent a sharper slump in activity.

While most European markets were lower, European oil stocks surged the most since January, with Europe’s SXEP Index climbing as much as 3.1%, the most since Jan. 4. Biggest gainers included Total +3.1%, BP +3.8% and Shell +3%, although the gains failed to offset losses by virtually all other sectors. Oil names aside, airlines are feeling the squeeze from the increase in oil prices with the likes of Lufthansa (-2.7%) and easyJet (-2.2%) under pressure. Elsewhere, Airbus (-3.8%) are towards the bottom of the Stoxx 600 following the WTO’s ruling that the US can legally impose tariffs in response to the illegal subsidising of the Co.; which has also resulted in significant downside across luxury names and most notably in LVMH (-3.6%).

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, led by financial firms, as risk appetite waned after an attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities. Energy shares jumped, while gold and the yen rallied as investors sought haven assets. Markets in the region were mixed, with Indonesia leading losses and South Korea advancing. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday. The Shanghai Composite Index closed little changed, as a rally in energy stocks was offset by a slide in some financial shares. The world’s second-biggest economy slowed further in August, indicating current stimulus policies may not be enough to cushion the blow of the trade war with the U.S. Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index slumped as much as 2.2%, dragged down by cigarette producers following the announcement of a sharp increase in the tobacco excise tariff

The burst of political tension following the strikes on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities has presented another conundrum for emerging-market traders. As Bloomberg notes, fresh from their longest rally in 20 months, many currencies foundered after the weekend drone attack on the Saudi Aramco installations led Riyadh to halve productionand triggered the biggest intraday jump in crude prices on record. The Indian rupee, Turkish lira and South African rand were among the worst-hit, while MSCI’s index of emerging stocks ended a three-day winning streak. The conflagration added a fresh layer of complexity to a market that last week took heart from signs of a U.S.-China truce on trade and expectations that central banks will ratchet up stimulus to stem a global economic slowdown. The concerns centered on how long oil supplies will be disrupted – underpinning prices and fanning inflation – and how the U.S. will respond, after blaming Iran for the attack.

“The market had become too sanguine about geopolitical risks over the last few months,” said Patrick Wacker, a fixed-income fund manager at UOB Asset Management. “While Saudi Arabia’s sovereign fundamentals are still firm, bond prices will need to factor in higher geopolitical risk going forward, which will weigh on Saudi Arabia’s and Aramco spreads.” Monday’s declines in Asia were far from extreme though, and some strategists saw the selloff as a buying opportunity. “If the markets decode this as a one-off lucky strike, risk should come roaring back,” said Stephen Innes, a strategist at AxiTrader Ltd. in Bangkok. “Investors will turn to bargain-hunting as trade-war winds blow fair, and of course with the prospects of Federal Reserve easing and all the other central banks leaning dovish.”

In yields, renewed fears about China’s economy and concerns that an oil price spike may depress global economic growth, coupled with a flight to safety helped send yields sharply lower after last week’s blowout move which pushed the 10Y north of 1.90% by the close on Friday. This morning the same paper was yielding as low as 1.81%, while European bonds were similarly higher.

 

 

 

China’s sovereign bonds pared declines after weaker-than-expected economic data indicated more stimulus may be needed to offset the impact of the trade war with the U.S. The yield on China’s benchmark 10-year government notes pared a gain of as much as 5 basis points, while 10-year bond futures rose as much as 0.2%.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was steady after two weeks of declines; U.S. Treasuries advanced for the first time since Sept. 3, driving the 10-year yield down by 7bps to 1.83%. USD/JPY was down 0.3% to 107.75 after sliding as much as 0.6%; USD/NOK fell 0.2% to 8.9711, after sliding as much as 0.8%. The biggest loss against the greenback was seen in sterling on profit-taking as a deal is seen as unlikely in the latest meeting of U.K. and EU leaders over Brexit; GBP/USD falls as much as 0.6% to 1.2426 after earlier touching 1.2523, its strongest since July 22.

In commodities, naturally energy markets remain in the spotlight after the Saudis supply shock lifted Brent crude just shy of $72 on the Asian open, a record 20% surge. However, since then Around half of the move has faded but both Brent and WTI remain ~8% higher leading oil and gas stocks to outperform in otherwise downbeat equity indices.

 

Of immediate focus will now be whether the Saudi attack escalates, and drags Iran in. On Sunday night, President Trump tweeted there is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack and under what terms to proceed, while he tweeted that there is plenty of oil and suggested it is fake news he is willing to meet with Iran without conditions.

While traders will now focus on this week’s Fed and BOJ meetings, today’s economic data include Empire State manufacturing survey.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 2,993.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 389.63
  • MXAP down 0.04% to 159.90
  • MXAPJ down 0.2% to 514.76
  • Nikkei up 1.1% to 21,988.29
  • Topix up 0.9% to 1,609.87
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 27,124.55
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.02% to 3,030.75
  • Sensex down 0.6% to 37,162.83
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.06% to 6,673.48
  • Kospi up 0.6% to 2,062.22
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to -0.46%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1060
  • Brent Futures up 8.8% to $65.51/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to 0.541%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 0.297%
  • Brent futures up 9% to $65.66/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.8% to $1,500.80
  • U.S. dollar Index up 0.02% to 98.28

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • In an extraordinary start to trading on Monday, London’s Brent futures leapt almost $12 in the seconds after the open, the most in dollar terms since they were launched in 1988. Oil’s jump came after a strike on a Saudi Arabian oil facility removed about 5% of global supplies
  • President Donald Trump said the U.S. is “locked and loaded depending on verification” that Iran staged the strike on Saudi Arabia’s plant, an assertion already made by his secretary of state and backed by administration officials. Trump authorized the release of oil from the nation’s emergency oil reserves following the drone attacks
  • Iranian-backed Yemeni rebels said oil installations in Saudi Arabia remain a target after drone attacks on two major sites slashed the kingdom’s output by half and triggered a record surge in oil prices.
  • U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his government sounded a more optimistic note on the likelihood of reaching a Brexit deal, even as he prepares to take a hard-line approach in his first negotiations with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker on Monday
  • China’s economy slowed further in August, indicating current stimulus policies may not be enough to shield the economy from the worsening effects of the trade war with the U.S.
  • The Bank of Japan is growing more open to the idea of cutting short-term interest rates deeper into negative territory, the WSJ reports, citing people familiar with the bank’s thinking. Policy board is leaning toward maintaining policy at this week’s meeting, and wants to see the impact of the Oct. 1 sales tax increase
  • North Korean leader Kim Jong Un invited Trump to visit Pyongyang, Joongang Ilbo reported, citing multiple people familiar with the matter., The offer to hold another summit was made in a letter delivered on the third week of August, the report said
  • Federal prosecutors are closing in on JPMorgan Chase & Co. officials in their investigation of price rigging in precious metals markets

Asian equity markets began the week cautiously as oil prices surged and geopolitical concerns heightened following drone attacks on Saudi refineries which shut down 5.7mln bbls or more than half of the kingdom’s production. Furthermore, the US are pointing the blame on Iran which the latter have denied, while disappointing Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales data, as well as this week’s heavy slate of central bank activity added to the tentative tone. ASX 200 (+0.1%) traded indecisively as weakness in the broader market was counterbalanced by strong gains in commodity-related sectors, especially energy stocks after oil prices briefly spiked as much as 20% due to the attacks on OPEC’s largest producer and although it expects to restore a third of the disrupted output today, some sources suggested a large percentage of the offline crude could be lost for some time. Hang Seng (-0.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (U/C) were mixed with underperformance in Hong Kong following another weekend of violent protests and with the mainland choppy as disappointing data and downbeat comments on China’s economy from Premier Li, fuelled stimulus hopes and as the PBoC’s previously announced 50bps RRR cut took effect today. As a reminder, Japanese markets remained shut for Respect for the Aged Day. China Premier Li said maintaining economic growth at 6% or higher is very difficult and that the Chinese economy faces certain downward pressure due to slowing global growth, protectionism and unilateralism.

Top Asian News

  • Lendlease Seeks to Raise Up to $539 Million in Singapore IPO
  • Chinese Developer Exits Key Macau Project Amid Local Land Probe
  • Mega Mergers Fail to Lure Funds to India’s State-Run Bank Stocks
  • Budweiser in Talks With GIC for ~$1B H.K. IPO Investment: IFR

Major European indices are softer this morning [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7%] as risk sentiment is impacted by the attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil refineries over the weekend; which is seen to reduce their output by as much as 5.7mln/bbl. Unsurprisingly, the energy sector is the only one in the green and is posting gains just shy of 3.0% thus far; notable movers within sector include heavyweights BP (+4.0%) and Shell (+2.8%) amongst the gainers, though Tullow Oil (+8.8%) is leading the way. Oil names aside, airlines are feeling the squeeze from the increase in oil prices with the likes of Lufthansa (-2.7%) and easyJet (-2.2%) under pressure. Elsewhere, Airbus (-3.8%) are towards the bottom of the Stoxx 600 following the WTO’s ruling that the US can legally impose tariffs in response to the illegal subsidising of the Co.; which has also resulted in significant downside across luxury names and most notably in LVMH (-3.6%). Other notable movers include, Wirecard (+1.2%) who are topping the Dax (-0.6%) after signing a MoU with UnionPay; while Atlantia (-7.1%) are at the bottom of the FTSE MIB (-1.1%), as the Co. are state they are open to an audit regarding falsified reports concerning viaduct safety and are to investigate whether their own procedures were correctly adhered to.

Top European News

  • Johnson to Meet EU’s Juncker for Talks Over Lunch: Brexit Update
  • Benettons Weigh Options on Atlantia Including Replacing CEO
  • China Rebuff Leaves Hong Kong Bourse Isolated in Bid for LSE
  • LVMH, Burberry, Hermes Fall After Weekend of Hong Kong Violence

In FX, The best performing G10 currencies are NOK/JPY/CAD/NZD/AUD on a mixture of geopolitical and crude factors as attacks on Saudi oil facilities over the weekend cut production and reignited tensions between the US and Iran, with Tehran announcing that President Rouhani will not be seeing Trump on the side-lines of the UN as had been mooted. No surprise that the Norwegian Krona and Loonie are benefiting from the spike in oil prices, along with the RUB, as Eur/Nok straddles 9.9000, Usd/Cad hovers around 1.3250 and the Rouble holds circa 64.000, albeit all some way from the lows seen when crude was at its extreme peaks (Brent almost Usd72 and WTI over Usd63). Meanwhile, the Yen has regained a safe-haven bid alongside XAU (bullion back on the Usd1500 handle) between 108.00-107.50 and decent option expiries from the big figure to 108.15 (1 bn) may also be keeping Usd/Jpy capped. Elsewhere, the Kiwi has regained the initiative down under and got close to 0.6400 vs its US counterpart again, as Aud/Nzd drifted down ahead of 1.0800 and Aud/Usd eased within a 0.6883-60 range amidst sub-forecast Chinese IP and retail sales data that underscored relatively downbeat remarks from Premier Li.

  • CHF/EUR/GBP – The Franc has pared most of its safe-haven gains vs the Dollar as the DXY consolidates off last Friday’s sub-98.000 lows in a 98.038-98.310 band, with Usd/Chf back up near 0.9900 from 0.9865 or so at one stage, but retains a firmer bid vs the Euro ahead of Thursday’s SNB meeting around 1.0950. Latest weekly Swiss sight deposits suggest a return to FX dabbling, while the single currency is struggling to keep pace with the Greenback after its post-ECB exertions, although Eur/Usd is keeping its head above the 21 DMA (1.1055) and well above expiries sitting at 1.1000-10 (1.2 bn) and 1.1025 (1 bn) in 1.1059-91 parameters. Conversely, the Pound has pull up pretty sharply from best levels of 1.2500 in Cable and circa 0.8855 on the Eur/Gbp cross as UK PM Johnson heads for his first face-to-face meeting with EU’s Juncker to try and hammer out an Irish backstop resolution. Note also, 1.2 bn options expire at 1.2500 and could be weighing on Sterling.

In commodities, crude futures made their single largest daily gain in history at the reopen of trade on Sunday, after Iranian-backed Yemeni Houthi rebels attacked critical Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure with drones, taking some 5.7mln bpd of Saudi supply (5% of world) offline; although the complex has since pared gains somewhat. WTI Oct’ 19 futures moved as high as USD 63.25/bbl before falling to the low USD 59.0 area per barrel, while Brent Nov’ 19 futures reached heights of USD 68.50/bbl, before paring back to the mid USD 65s/bbl. Both hold on to gains north of USD 4.0/bbl and USD 5.0/bbl respectively. Later reports that Saudi Aramco’s full return to normal levels of oil production may ‘take months’ also resulted in some positive ticks for the crude complex. Goldman Sachs hypothesise that, should the outage last 2-6 weeks, they would expect to see a move in Brent prices of between USD 4.0/bbl and USD 14.0/bbl, keeping Brent below USD 75/bbl. Conversely, a net disruption of larger than 4mln BPD for more than three months would likely bring Brent prices above USD 75/bbl, according to the bank. While little is known at the moment about the extent of the damage or the expected duration of the outages, it seems likely that such a successful precision attack on producer as important as Saudi Arabia may result in persistent risk premium. Focus now will turn to what, if any, response occurs from the US side given the tweets from US President Trump and reports illustrating that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards were behind the attack, alongside any measures to alleviate the supply shortage via OPEC+ members. The attack itself has triggered a broader risk off move, which has seen Gold prices move back above the USD 1500/oz handle to USD 1512/oz at best. Poor data out of China, where Industrial Output and Retail Sales both disappointed, combined with the more cautious risk appetite, has seen copper underperform. Of note for steel, ING point out that China’s steel production recovered 2.2% M/M (+9.3% Y/Y) to 2.81mt per day in August 2019, as falling iron ore prices improved the profitability of steel mills. Iron ore prices in China dropped around 25% in August while domestic steel prices were down only around 5-10%. In total, Chinese steel output is up 9.1% YoY to 665mt over the first eight months of the year. Finally, of note for nickel; mining operations in the Tawi-Tawi province (nickel producing region) in the Philippines have been suspended on an indefinite basis, according to government officials. The suspension comes amid a review of the local government’s mining policy.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, est. 4, prior 4.8

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

11 years ago this Monday morning we woke up to the implications of the shock Lehman default. Time flies. Exactly one decade and a year later we’re waking up to a record breaking rally in oil with Brent futures jumping c. 20% to $72/ barrel in the seconds after they opened today, marking the biggest intraday advance ($11.73) since they were launched in 1988. WTI contracts, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, were frozen at the open for about two minutes because of a circuit breaker, jumped as much as 15.5% to $63.34, the most since 2008.As we’ll see below we’ve pared about half of these gains now but it’s still a record breaking session. Prior to the weekend news it was hard to look much past the Fed meeting on Wednesday for the highlight of the week but the news that around half of Saudi’s daily oil production (5% of world total/ 5.7 mn barrels per day) has been taken offline due to drone attacks will now be a big focus for oil and geopolitics.

To give the moves some context, the attacks led to single worst sudden disruption ever for oil markets, surpassing the loss of Kuwaiti and Iraqi petroleum supply in August 1990, when Saddam Hussein invaded his neighbour. It also exceeds the loss of Iranian oil output in 1979 during the Islamic Revolution, according to the International Energy Agency. As discussed Oil has pared almost half of its opening advances as we type but with WTI and Brent still trading up +8.84% and +9.91% respectively. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed credit for the attack, but President Trump has already said that the US is “locked and loaded depending on verification” that Iran staged the attack, an assertion also made by his secretary of state Mike Pompeo and backed by administration officials. However, Saudi Arabia has still not confirmed that it was Iran behind the attack. It wasn’t totally clear to us which way US treasuries would open up this morning as higher Oil is clearly bearish but the geopolitical tensions that this brings, especially as the US is leaning towards putting the blame at Iran’s door, are significant. Treasuries haven’t opened as usual due to a Japanese holiday but implied levels in futures seem to indicate a 4.1bps rally in 10yrs. Spot gold prices are up c. 1% this morning to 1503/ ounce.

Bloomberg has reported overnight that Saudi Arabia can restart a significant volume of the halted oil production within days, but needs weeks to restore full output capacity. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco said in a statement dated Saturday that it would provide an update in about 48 hours. So, one to look out for. Elsewhere, President Trump also authorized the release of oil from the nation’s emergency reserves while the IEA which helps coordinate industrialized countries’ emergency fuel stockpiles, said it was monitoring the situation. Trump also said that the amount of oil released from the SPR would be determined “sufficient to keep the markets well-supplied.” The stockpile has previously been tapped in response to Operation Desert Storm in 1991, Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and Libyan supply disruptions in 2011.

Equity markets in Asia are trading mostly down but not severely with the Hang Seng -1.00% while the shanghai comp is up +0.10% and the Kospi is up +0.40% as the markets re-open after a holiday. Markets in Japan are closed for a holiday. Futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.58%.

As for FX, the currencies of commodity exporting nations are making gains today – the Norwegian Krone (+0.51%) and Canadian dollar (+0.41%) are both up. The Japanese yen is up +0.25% while most Asian EM fx is trading weak. In terms of overnight data releases, China’s August economic data came in weaker than expected across the board with industrial production falling to +4.4% yoy (vs. 5.2% yoy expected), the lowest since February 2002 while retail sales stood at +7.5% yoy (vs. +7.9% yoy expected) and YtD August Fixed asset investment slowed to 5.5% yoy (vs. +5.7 yoy expected).

This weekend’s events follow the worst week for some bond markets for a few years. 10yr Treasury yields were up +33.6bps (+12.4bps Friday), the largest weekly increase since the week of President Trump’s election in 2016, while 10-year bund yields were up +18.9bps (up +6.7bps Friday), the biggest weekly increase since June 2017. The sell-off came about thanks to a run of positive data releases from the US (more on that below) along with a mixed message from the ECB with the number of dissenters suggesting that it will be difficult to do much more from the monetary side. Indeed Bundesbank President Weidmann struck a strongly hawkish note on Friday, saying in comments to Bild that the ECB had gone “over board”, citing positive wage growth and the lack of deflation. Furthermore, he said “I will make sure that interest-rate increases won’t unnecessarily be delayed”. Meanwhile the President of the Dutch Central Bank, Klaas Knot, said in a press release that “This broad package of measures, in particular restarting the APP, is disproportionate to the present economic conditions, and there are sound reasons to doubt its effectiveness.” The irony about the immediate market response to the meeting is that investors have assumed that the lack of cohesion at the ECB and Draghi’s strong indication that they can’t do much more, has left them assuming that government spending will have to take over sooner rather than later. As such they are ignoring the potential policy error of restarting QE (bullish for bonds all other things being equal) and the potential flattening of the yield curve as we approach or have crossed the reversal rate.

Even though we may be at the reversal rate, the thought process explained above and the fact that tiering was introduced meant that banks were the main winner last week with the STOXX Banks index up +7.80% (+3.02% Friday), which was its biggest weekly gain since March 2017, while the S&P 500 Banks Industry Group was up +6.84% (+1.42% Friday), the strongest week since January.

Equity overall continued their advance with the S&P 500 up +0.96% (-0.07% Friday), while the STOXX 600 rose +1.20% (+0.34% Friday). This was the 3rd consecutive weekly move upwards for the S&P and the 4th for the STOXX 600, and the moves mean that the S&P 500 is now just a +0.61% increase away from reaching its all-time closing high. Safe havens suffered however, with gold down -1.21% (-0.72% Friday) and closing lower for the 3rd consecutive week.

In spite of the stimulus package, the euro actually ended the week up +0.40% against the dollar, although the policy moves did seem to have some effect on market expectations of inflation, with five-year forward five-year inflation swaps up +7.4bps last week to 1.314%, their highest level in over a month, although still pretty low. Bear in mind a year ago it was at 1.691%, so there’s been a pretty big downgrade in market’s assessment of future inflation over this last year.

Yield curves steepened amidst the bond sell-off, with the US 2s10s curve up +7.8bps (+4.2bps Friday) to reach +9.2bps, its highest level in over a month, while the German and the UK 2s10s curve also ended the week +2.8bps and +7.5bps respectively. The Bund curve really struggled to know what to do post the ECB and probably still does. Meanwhile Sov spreads tightened, with the Italian 10yr yield spread over bunds falling for a 5th consecutive week, down -18.5bps to their lowest level since May last year, while the Spanish 10yr spread over bunds fell by -6.0bps.

Previewing the Fed now, the overwhelming consensus (and DB) expectation is for another 25bp rate cut, following the 25bp cut at the Fed’s July meeting, which was the first rate cut since 2008. The main focus will be on where they go after this week. Our economists think a continued dovish bias should be evident in the statement language, Summary of Economic Projections and Chair Powell’s press conference. It seems Powell is still keen to emphasise the baseline as a mid-cycle slowdown though over anything more sinister but it’s hard to imagine him not highlighting the risks, especially around trade. Expect the “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion” line to continue to be the takeaway. A reminder that after this 25bps cut our economists expect a further cumulative 75bps of rate cuts (Oct, Dec, Jan) after next week’s reduction (see “ A trade tipping point ”).

This follows a run of more positive US data releases which continued on Friday, with US retail sales up +0.4% in August (vs. +0.2% expected), while July’s reading was revised up a tenth to +0.8%. The University of Michigan sentiment indicator also beat expectations, coming at at 92.0 (vs. 90.8 expected), and rebounding from August’s reading which was the lowest since October 2016. With all the positive data releases from the US this week, which also included lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims and higher-than-expected consumer borrowing figures, investors reassessed the chances of aggressive easing from the Federal Reserve over the coming months. By the end of last week, investors saw the chances of at least 75bps of further cuts from the Fed this year at 17.6%, down from 40.6% at the end of the previous week. Meanwhile, the chances of just one further 25bp cut this year rose over the last week from 13.7% to 33.3%.

Back to the ECB now and this week we will get a chance to hear from a number of their dignitaries. Lane will be speaking today, Villeroy on Wednesday, and Coeure and Rehn on Thursday. So it will be interesting to hear their take. From the Fed, Boston Fed President Rosengren is speaking on Friday albeit after the FOMC. This week also sees policy meetings from the Bank of Japan, Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank.

From Europe, a release to watch out for will be Germany’s Zew Survey for September. Last month, the expectations reading dropped to -44.1, the lowest level since December 2011, while the current situation reading dropped to -13.5, the lowest since May 2010. So it’ll be worth keeping an eye out to see if things continue to deteriorate or if there are any signs of stabilisation.

Finally with regards to Brexit we will hear from the Supreme Court from tomorrow over the legality of proroguing Parliament and today sees Mr Johnson meet EC President Juncker for Brexit talks. It seems some red lines are being softened on the Irish issue from the UK side. It’ll be interesting to see if more progress is made towards a deal. It still looks very hard to imagine one that passing Parliament by October 31st but the odds are probably higher now than they were a week ago as some Labour MPs suggested they will now vote for a deal, hardline Brexiters seems to be slightly more likely to compromise and the DUP may be softening some of their resistance behind the scenes. We will see if more progress and compromise is forthcoming. On the flip side there are still press stories suggesting Mr Johnson won’t ask the EU for an extension even though a law has now been passed insisting he does. So clearly lots of water to flow under the Brexit bridge over the next 6 and a bit weeks.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.48 POINTS OR 0.02%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 228.14 POINTS OR 0.82%   /The Nikkei closed UP 228.08 POINTS OR 0.83%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .02%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0658 /Oil UP TO 59.49 dollars per barrel for WTI and 66.25 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0658 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0631 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

The yuan extends losses from Friday after they release a series of huge disappointments.  See below

(zerohedge)

Yuan Extends Losses After China Macro Data Disappoints

The world’s brief infatuation with the idea of green shoots, or that a recession may be avoided, suffered a head on collision with reality after the latest dismal China data dump which was nothing short of a disaster for the econo-bulls.

In retrospect, it was all too clear, because just hours after China’s premier Li warned that maintaining growth of 6% or more is “very difficult”, Beijing decided to demonstrated in practice what the premier meant, and slam the currency in the process, because just after 10pm, China’s yuan extended its early losses, testing down to the fix after the bulk of China’s economic data for August disappointed across the board:

  • Industrial Production rose just 5.6% YTD YoY (below the +5.7% exp and down from +5.8% prior)
  • Retail Sales rose just 7.5% YoY (below the +7.9% exp and down from +7.6% prior)
  • Fixed Asset Investments rose just 5.5% YTD YoY (below the +5.7% exp and down from +5.7% prior)
  • Property Investment rose just 10.5% YTD YoY (down from +10.6% prior)

All of tonight’s data missed expectations with only the unemployment rate improving very modestly (falling from 5.3% to 5.2%).

 

Source: Bloomberg

Which sent the yuan lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this good news – more stimulus; or bad news – stimulus isn’t working and Trump is winning? Or does any of this backward looking data even matter when China just reported that its apparent oil demand jumped by 9.1% Y/Y, and with China the biggest Saudi oil customer now looking at a price shock, just how will China’s economy absorb what looks like a consumer spending and confidence crushing surge in oil prices.

One thing that is certain: if indeed Iran is responsible for the attack on Saudi oil facilities, that fact that it will indirectly cripple China’s economy at a time when the US-China trade war approaches its critical stage, would likely make Iran Trump’s best friend… although we doubt that this particular verison of events will get much media exposure.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

Meet the genius behind Boris Johnson…Domenic Cummings, a gentleman who espouses the free enterprise spirit. Cummings must deliver a Brexit and this will then allow the UK to escape the grips of the socialists

 

a must read..

(courtesy Alasdair Macleod)

Trump & Johnson: Overthrowing The Establishment

Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

Trump and Johnson face a common enemy in their complacent and costly establishments, but it is wrong to think they share a common approach to government business and finances. For the moment, all attention in Britain is focused on Brexit, but under Johnson’s predecessors, spending has become increasingly driven by process instead of outcomes. Johnson’s chief strategist has identified the reversal of this trend as offering the key to delivering outcomes in a post-Brexit UK while balancing the budget and reducing tax.

Introduction

Superficially, the electorates of America and Britain share one thing in common. They have both become sick of the establishment’s arrogant presumption that it knows better than the common people. Donald Trump spotted it and won the presidency in the face of enormous hostility from the establishment, both Democrat and Republican, as well as the deep state comprised of unaccountable intelligence operators and bureaucrats. The year before, the Westminster establishment found ordinary people rebelled against its assumed right to run the affairs of the electorate.

In Britain, if a mistake was made, it was to offer a referendum which produced the wrong answer. That is how the establishment appears to see it. In America, the UK as well as in Europe an elite has emerged for which democracy has become an irritant. But the establishment knows the rules and cannot deny their validity. The electorates in America and Britain have now given their establishments an unpalatable message, that they overrated their own importance. The bureaucrats no longer represent the interests of the people. Quite simply, the establishment and its bureaucrats have broken their contract with their electors, drifting away from the primary reason for their existence. The ordinary person has had enough of being ignored.

The result is the establishment is being forced to fight for its survival. President Trump has been fighting this battle on behalf of the American people for nearly two years. The British establishment has been fighting a rear-guard action for three over Brexit. Neither establishment has yet been vanquished. In America, there are signs of an accommodation, a compromise, which will allow the state to gradually resume control. In the UK, the survival of Boris Johnson and his new government depends on his refusal to compromise in its fight against the establishment’s Europhiles and placemen.

Brexit is a conflict that is only now being forced to a conclusion after three years of a Remainer government trying to appear to comply with the referendum result, while locking the United Kingdom into the EU, potentially in perpetuity. The electorate rumbled it and threatened the ruling Conservative party with extinction. Recognising the danger, their parliamentary party in conjunction with the party membership ejected the complicit Theresa May and elected Boris Johnson to take the country out of the EU on the delayed date of 31 October.

It is by no means certain Johnson will succeed. Remainers are now fighting his government in the courts, with the Supreme Court due to adjudicate next Tuesday (17 September) on whether the prorogation of Parliament was legal. And a way has to be found around the Benn-Burt Law, the last act of Remainer MPs.

The behaviour of the opposition parties in Parliament has been unedifying. The public sees a parliament out of control under a partisan Speaker. Not surprisingly, the opinion polls are swinging more in support of Johnson’s Conservatives and against the other parties, widening the gulf even further between Parliament and the people its members are elected to serve. If Parliament had any public respect before recent events, then it has certainly lost it now.

The similarities between President Trump’s position fighting the Federal establishment and that of Boris Johnson fighting Westminster gives the impression to many international observers that Boris is a British version of The Donald. Trump is urging the British to leave the EU, and thinks Johnson is the man to do it. Johnson is happy to encourage Trump’s support for a quick, post-Brexit trade deal. They get on together well.

But they are not peas in the same pod. Johnson has shown a free-marketeer grasp over trade issues and the damage that tariffs can do, while Trump is an interventionist. And when it comes to deficit financing, the evidence is emerging that Boris will fund promised spending in education, policing and health by cutting bureaucracy rather than relying on deficit stimulation now to provide tax income tomorrow. This is where Dominic Cummings comes into play.

This article skims over recent developments in Britain’s fight to free itself from the EU, particularly with respect to the role of Cummings. Making a huge assumption that Johnson and Cummings manage to implement Brexit on 31 October and the Conservatives are re-elected in a general election shortly, it also looks at how the government is likely to fund its promised expenditure plans.

Cummings – the confident back-room operator

Dominic Cummings scares much of the Westminster establishment, with good reason: he is intent on destroying it in its current form and replacing it with a system that prioritises objectives, minimising non-essential political and administrative intervention.There will be no tolerance of virtue-signalling by ministers and pressure groups. Of the money allocated to a project, instead of a Pareto eighty per cent being spent on process and twenty per cent on the final objective, Cummings is bent on ensuring it is the other way around, even releasing funds to permit tax cuts while retaining a balanced budget.

But first Cummings is dedicated to achieving Brexit on 31 October,when he will have directed the strategy to remove Britain from under the stultifying regulations and bureaucracy emanating from EU membership, freeing him to pursue his ultimate objective. On Brexit, we can only watch developments, because outsiders can only guess the government’s next moves and the final outcome.

To understand more fully Cummings’s role as special advisor to Boris Johnson, his ambitions, intentions and prospects for success, it is worth delving into his personal story. He was born in Durham in North-East England to middle-class parents in 1971. He attended Durham School, a middle-of-the-road fee-paying school, and then attended Exeter College at Oxford University, graduating with a First in Ancient and Modern History.

Robin Lane Fox, his tutor in Ancient History described him in a recent BBC profile as “extremely aware of his own abilities and had every reason to be”. When asked who was cleverer, Boris Johnson or Dominic Cummings, Lane Fox responded “Dominic is cleverer by a long way than Boris. Different class altogether”.

Lane Fox would also have known Johnson, who attended Oxford at Balliol, where he entered as a Brackenbury Scholar to read Literae Humaniores, a four-year course in Ancient Greek and Latin Classics. But Johnson, who as a student appears to have lacked Cummings’s focus, only got a 2:1. However, his intellect should not be in doubt, and while one can understand Lane Fox underestimating Johnson due to his lack of intellectual focus, Cummings appears to have been exceptional.

His other tutor in Modern History was Norman Stone, who died in June. Stone was also a notable intellect, and in his day had been an advisor to Margaret Thatcher. Both Stone and Thatcher shared a distrust of the British and European establishments. Stone’s was based on his deep knowledge of European history, honed from his studies at Glasgow University. Adam Smith’s association with Glasgow University would have also had a bearing on Stone’s free-market thinking. Adam Smith, the founder of economics as a human science, had been appointed as its Professor of Logic, and the following year he was appointed Professor of Moral Philosophy.

Stone was a man who would cut to the quick and did not suffer mediocracy, let alone fools. He was a chain-smoking hard-drinking argumentative Glaswegian who would not have endeared himself to “the humourless halfwits who are the bedrock of university management and the political class”. As an example of his impiety and wit he came up with one of the best questions ever set in a Cambridge tripos: “Romanticism: masculine, feminine or neuter?”

In his own way, Stone wanted to help Mrs Thatcher undermine the rotten British political system, which by 1979 had drifted onto the rocks of socialism. The Thatcher revolution saved Britain by driving Marxist Labour into the wilderness, much as the Johnson/Cummings partnership seeks to today.

After Thatcher’s initial success against socialism, the establishment reconstituted itself on proto-capitalist lines and ejected her in 1990. Despite Stone’s brilliance, his influence and role as Thatcher’s foreign policy advisor on Europe and speech writer was sadly limited in the light of events. Stone would have found that with all its mediocracy, the establishment always regroups. But perhaps a more sober, focused and ruthless operator in his protégé might have a better chance. It appears that Stone quickly recognised Cummings’s intellect, and would have been attracted by his directness and sense of purpose. They were like-minded dissident geniuses.

Cummings learned about Thucydides from Fox Lane, and Bismarck from Stone. I see a parallel with TE Lawrence, another young man a century ago who was a loner, aloof from his contemporaries but with a remarkable intellect. In Lawrence’s case, he single-mindedly inspired Bedouin tribesmen to revolt against the Turks in Palestine, leading to the creation of nation states in the Middle East. As well as having Lawrence’s detached ability to analyse and lead, Cummings appears to possess Lawrence’s brilliant singlemindedness. He clearly identifies an objective and is ruthless in his focus and determination to achieve it, just as was Lawrence.

Cummings’ first serious role in government was as special advisor to Michael Gove, at that time David Cameron’s education secretary. He helped Gove push through many major reforms, and his view on the importance of the state getting education right and the means of achieving it is the subject of his 235-page essay, Some thoughts on education and political priorities. His ambition then and now is for Britain to become the school of the world, echoing Pericles’ description of Athens as the school of Greece.

In his essay, Cummings describes those in English politics and power as lacking structured and disciplined thought, being much more interested in appearing to be on the side of the poor and less able, than they are in raising standards. Policy debates had become little more than exercises in moral exhibitionism.

Crucially, from his essay he is convinced that enormous savings can be made in the administration of state education, enough to fund the achievement of end-objectives and still have money left over to spend elsewhere or to reduce spending overall. He also observes that savings from his focused approach can be made across all Whitehall departments. It is clear from his essay that he intends to release the funds for the new Johnson government’s proposed spending on education, policing and health by cutting spending on bureaucratic and political processes not essential to end objectives.

This has been attempted before. All attempts, and there have been many over the years, to have a bonfire of the quangos have failed. [Quango is an acronym which stands for quasi-autonomous non-government organisation, an arms-length entity set up by a government department, which usually add little value and much bureaucracy. It is estimated there are 742 quangos spending some £100bn annually, though estimates vary considerably].

Cummings’ approach to eliminating this waste appears to be different from previous attempts. He is the lead special adviser in a network of nearly a hundred “spads” (as at end-2018). He is moulding them into a combined force, separate from both government and the civil service, responsible directly to him as well as their relevant ministers. This ensures that ministers will be advised in accordance with Cummings’ policy of cutting waste and increasing the effectiveness of decision making by focusing on objectives, and not process.

In effect, the continuing advice given to ministers by their departmental civil servants will be made to conform with the Cummings policy. It is no less than a carefully planned attempt to wrest control from a floundering political establishment to make government more efficient and objective in its aims. However, the initial task is to deliver Brexit on 31 October, and we are already seeing the consequences of the Cummings approach.

Cummings does not compromise in pursuing his objectives. He has ensured the removal of the whip from plotting Remainers in the Conservative parliamentary party in brutal, public fashion. Any special adviser not totally onside is treated equally brutally, one in the Treasury suspected of leaking having been sacked by him on the spot and marched out of Downing Street by an armed policeman. Whitehall has not in living memory seen this level of hard-headedness, focus and determination. And he is Boris Johnson’s real chef de cabinet.

The relationship with Boris was forged when they worked together on the Brexit referendum campaign where Boris was the front man and Cummings the operator. It suited Boris, who is an excellent delegator and was happy for Cummings to run the show on his and his political colleagues’ behalf. It is a relationship that continues to endure between two like-minded classicists. Boris’s other appointments, particularly in Gove, Javid, Rees-Moog and Raab, amount to an intellectually capable cabinet espousing free market economics. By restoring Cabinet discipline, Johnson has ensured ministers will be in tune with Cummings’s plans to reduce government’s operating costs to the lowest possible level. But their first task, to deliver Brexit, is still in play. With Cummings and Boris working on a plan towards a clear objective, they are likely to succeed against the Remainers, who beyond being disruptive, are incapable of coming up with any feasible strategy. But for the moment, we do not know how this will play out and can only speculate.

Britain’s future under a reforming government

Without a majority in the Commons and an antagonistic House of Lords it may seem premature to consider how a Johnson government will change the political landscape. However, much of the current uncertainty will disappear when an uncompromising Brexit is finally achieved, and the hastily formed alliance on the opposition benches can then be expected to collapse. This assumes the government finds a way of neutralising the Benn-Burt Law, which forces it to secure the approval of MPs for either a withdrawal agreement or leaving without a withdrawal agreement. If at the end of 19 October neither has been achieved, the Prime Minister must then have sought an extension of the Brexit date until at least 31 January 2020. But assuming a way is found around this hurdle, the loose coalition of opposition parties will have no binding reason for its existence. Scottish Nationalists and Liberals will then relish the prospect of taking Labour seats and support a move to a general election.

Following that election and assuming Johnson achieves a working majority, all the pointless, virtue-signalling politics that ministers who served under Mrs May and their departments indulged in will be confined to the opposition benches, since Cummings and his cohort of special advisers will expunge them from ministerial decision-making. Despite the headline numbers reflecting more spent at the point of delivery in all ministries, they should be adequately funded by the elimination of needless process. At least, that’s the plan.

This is why Johnson is not on the same page as Trump, at least when it comes to the prosecution of government business, and there is a strong likelihood his Chancellor will be able to run a balanced budget (all else being equal), compared with Trump’s deliberate ramping up of unfunded spending to perpetuate the illusion of American prosperity.

end

Stupid and costly.  Bankrupt Italy is now reversing course and welcomes migrants

(zerohedge)

A Post-Salvini Italy Reverses Course; Welcomes Migrants From NGO Rescue Boat

Following the ouster of right-wing interior minister Matteo Salvini, Italy’s new left-leaning government has walked back the country’s hard-line immigration policies when it comes to migrants rescued by NGO vessels in the Mediterranean – many off the coast of Libya.

On Saturday, the new coalition government between the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) and the center-left Democratic Party (PD) granted a request for the Norwegian-flagged Ocean Viking operated by French NGOs SOS Méditerranée and Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) to allow 82 migrants to disembark for ‘safe haven,’ according to The Guardian.

The decision follows a negotiated agreement with the European commission, which received the request to manage the situation and find a solution among member states.

“Italian authorities have offered to the Ocean Viking a safe port to disembark,” tweeted the charities, adding “MSF and SOS Méditerranée are relieved.”

Italy’s new government, which won a vote of confidence in the senate on Tuesday – the final step needed to exercise its full powers – intends to draw a line under a crisis sparked by Salvini, the far-right leader of the League.

Giuseppe Conte, on his second mandate as prime minister, had promised to revise the previous government’s anti-immigration policies, which provide for the closure of seaports to rescue vessels carrying migrants, the seizure of NGO boats and fines for ships that bring asylum seekers to Italy without permission.

NGO rescue vessels have been stranded at sea up to 20 days over the last 14 months because of the Salvini’s measures. There have been 25 standoffs between rescue vessels and Italian authorities since Salvini took office as interior minister in June 2018, according to the Institute for International Political Studies (Ispi). –The Guardian

NGO ships, meanwhile, have violated Italy’s rules on several occasions – docking without permission so that their passengers could disembark and receive food and medical care. Nearly each time, the NGOs were either temporarily impounded and/or heavily fined.

In June, Sea-Watch 3 captain Carola Rackete was arrested after forcing her way into Lampedusa with 40 migrants – nearly ramming a navy vessel which attempted to block the ship. She has since been released.

According to the report, Germany and France may take in 50% of the migrants onboard the Ocean Viking, split evenly between them. The remainder will be taken in by Italy and other EU states.

On Wednesday, European council president Donald Tusk and Conte met to discuss the matter, after which Conte said that EU member states which refuse to take on migrants should face financial penalties.

“Those who do not participate in the redistribution of migrants at the European level will feel the impact in a significant way in financial terms,” he said.

Salvini, meanwhile, tweeted “The new government has opened again its seaports to migrants,” adding “The new ministers must hate our country. Italy is back to being Europe’s refugee camp.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Major missile attacks on huge Saudi oil refiners.  Seems to havew come from the North

(COURTESY HENRY MARTIN/Mail on line)

and a special thanks to G for sending this to us

Drone attacks spark huge fire at world’s largest oil processing plant in Saudi and at second massive facility nearby as tensions in region reach boiling point following Iranian attacks on tankers

  • Drone attacks spared fires at Aramco oil facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia today
  • Attacks took place at 4:00am at world’s largest oil processing plant Abqaiq
  • The Saudi interior ministry said the fires have now been brought under control 
  • Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for attacks in Buqyaq and Khurais 
  • Tensions in the Gulf have soared since May, with Donald Trump calling off air strikes against Iran at the last minute in June after it downed a US drone

By HENRY MARTIN FOR MAILONLINE and AFP

PUBLISHED: 08:13 BST, 14 September 2019 | UPDATED: 12:11 BST, 14 September 2019

 

Ten drones sparked a huge fire at the world’s largest oil processing facility and a major oilfield in Saudi Arabia in the early hours of this morning.

The fires at Abqaiq in Buqyaq, which contains the world’s largest oil processing plant, and Khurais, which contains the country’s second largest oilfield, have now been brought under control since the drone attacks at 4.00am local time.

Tensions are running high in the region after attacks in June and July on oil tankers in Gulf waters that Riyadh and Washington blamed on Iran.

Iran-aligned Houthi fighters in Yemen have also launched attacks over the border, hitting Shaybah oilfield with drones last month and two oil pumping stations in May. Both attacks caused fires but did not disrupt production.

A military spokesman for Yemen’s Houthi rebels has claimed responsibility for today’s attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais, two major facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia run by state-owned oil giant Aramco.

Saudi authorities control fire at an Aramco factory in Al-Arabiya

Abqaiq facility, located 37 miles southwest of Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, is home to the company's largest oil processing plant, according to its website (pictured: Smoke is seen following a fire at an Aramco factory in Abqaiq)

 

Abqaiq facility, located 37 miles southwest of Aramco’s Dhahran headquarters, is home to the company’s largest oil processing plant, according to its website (pictured: Smoke is seen following a fire at an Aramco factory in Abqaiq)

Smoke is seen following a fire at an Aramco factory in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia, September 14

 

Smoke is seen following a fire at an Aramco factory in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia, September 14

Smoke is seen following a fire at an Aramco factory in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia, September 14

 

Smoke is seen following a fire at an Aramco factory in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia, September 14

A satellite image provided by NASA Worldview shows fires following Yemen's Houthi rebels claiming a drone attack on two major oil installations in eastern Saudi Arabia

 

A satellite image provided by NASA Worldview shows fires following Yemen’s Houthi rebels claiming a drone attack on two major oil installations in eastern Saudi Arabia

Tensions are running high in the region after attacks in June and July on oil tankers in Gulf waters that Riyadh and Washington blamed on Iran

 

Tensions are running high in the region after attacks in June and July on oil tankers in Gulf waters that Riyadh and Washington blamed on Iran

Yahia Sarie made the announcement Saturday in a televised address carried by the Houthi’s Al-Masirah satellite news channel.

He said the Houthis sent 10 drones to attack an oil processing facility in Buqyaq and the Khurais oil field.

He warned attacks by the rebels against the kingdom would only get worse if the war in Yemen continues.

Sarie said: ‘The only option for the Saudi government is to stop attacking us.’

Saudi Arabia has not specified whether oil production or exports were affected. State television said exports were continuing.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels previously launched drone assaults deep inside of the kingdom.

The attack also likely will heighten tensions further across the wider Persian Gulf amid a confrontation between the U.S. and Iran over its unraveling nuclear deal with world powers.

A military spokesman for Yemen's Houthi rebels has claimed responsibility for today's attacks on Abqaiq (pictured) and Khurais

 

A military spokesman for Yemen’s Houthi rebels has claimed responsibility for today’s attacks on Abqaiq (pictured) and Khurais

The Abqaiq facility (pictured), which processes sour crude oil into sweet crude, then later transports onto transshipment points on the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, has been targeted in the past by militants

 

The Abqaiq facility (pictured), which processes sour crude oil into sweet crude, then later transports onto transshipment points on the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, has been targeted in the past by militants

Saudi Aramco describes its Abqaiq oil processing facility in Buqyaq as ‘the largest crude oil stabilization plant in the world.’

The facility, which processes sour crude oil into sweet crude, then later transports onto transshipment points on the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, has been targeted in the past by militants.

Al-Qaida-claimed suicide bombers tried but failed to attack the oil complex in February 2006.

A Saudi-led coalition has been battling Houthi rebels since March 2015. The Iranian-backed Houthis hold Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, and other territory in the Arab world’s poorest country.

The fires at Abqaiq, which contains the world's largest oil processing plant, and Khurais, which contains the country's second largest oilfield, have now been brought under control

 

The fires at Abqaiq, which contains the world's largest oil processing plant, and Khurais, which contains the country's second largest oilfield, have now been brought under control

 

The fires at Abqaiq, which contains the world’s largest oil processing plant, and Khurais, which contains the country’s second largest oilfield, have now been brought under control

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais, two major Aramco facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia , but it follows a spike in regional tensions with Iran (pictured: Abqaiq)

 

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais, two major Aramco facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia , but it follows a spike in regional tensions with Iran (pictured: Abqaiq)

end

Saudi Arabia/Iran/Iaq

zero hedge reports on the above big story , Saturday

(zerohedge)

 

Massive Fires Erupt After Drone Strike Hits World’s Largest Oil Processing Facility In Saudi Arabia

What appears to be the most devastating Yemen Houthi rebel attack on Saudi Arabia to date, took place overnight on the world’s largest oil processing facility as stunning videos emerged of massive explosions rocking the major Aramco Buqyaq facility.

Fires burned into the morning daylight hours, with explosions also reported at the Khurais oil field, in what the Houthis said was a successful attack involving ten drones. “These attacks are our right, and we warn the Saudis that our targets will keep expanding,” a rebel military spokesman said on Houthi-operated Al Masirah TV.

 

Satellite images shows extent of fires following the attacks in eastern Saudi Arabia: NASA Worldview/AP 

Saudi authorities — initially slow or reluctant to identify the cause of the major blaze — on Saturday issued a confirmation via the Saudi Press Agency: “At 4.00am (01:00 GMT) the industrial security teams of Aramco started dealing with fires at two of its facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais as a result of… drones,” an interior ministry statement said, which further claimed the fires were “under control”.

Ahmed Alsalman@AAlsalman91

city view as facilities burn. Very likely to be an attack of some sort as gunshots are also heard.

Embedded video

However, the Saudis have stopped short of acknowledging the Houthis were behind the attack, which Riyadh is also likely to blame on Iran, which has lately promised that if it can’t export its oil then “no one will”.

It remains unclear according to early statements whether there were injuries or casualties in the twin oil facility attacks.

Ahmed Alsalman@AAlsalman91

More video of fires throughout in

Embedded video

In some of the video captured by onlookers outside the Buqayq facility, gunfire in or around the complex was apparent.

John Marquee@john_marquee

A second video filmed from the same parking lot shows another large explosion.

Both videos are filmed from across the street from the Aramco compound and are facing South/South-East

h/t @MeKassab

Embedded video

John Marquee@john_marquee

A third video filmed from around the corner from the first two.

Geolocated: (https://goo.gl/maps/AEcxyTS3YYooARJc8 )

Embedded video

The impact on global oil markets – closed for the weekend – could be significant given the Khurais field produces about 1% of all the world’s oil (estimated at over 1M bpd and reserves of over 20BN bpd) and more importantly Abqaiq, which based on the stunning local footage bore the brunt of the drone attacks, remains the most crucial of the kingdom’s processing plants.

Located 37 miles southwest of Aramco’s Dhahran headquarters, it controls all the flows from fields like the giant Ghawar field to coastal export terminals like Ras Tanura. Saudi Aramco describes the Buqyaq facility as “the largest crude oil stabilization plant in the world.”

Sky News

@SkyNews

The world’s largest oil processing facility has been hit in a drone attack.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels have said they were behind the strikes on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq plant. Read the full story here: http://po.st/cbHfo4

Embedded video

Meanwhile, the United States was quick to “strongly condemn” the attack amid already soaring tensions in the gulf after a summer of “tanker wars” and Iranian threats of walking away altogether from the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA).

The U.S. envoy to Saudi Arabia issued a statement saying, “The U.S. strongly condemns today’s drone attacks against oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais. These attacks against critical infrastructure endanger civilians, are unacceptable, and sooner or later will result in innocent lives being lost.”

According to Reuters reports the drone attacks will impact up to 5 million bpd of oil production, which suggests that the price of oil – already severely depressed by the recent news that John Bolton is out, making de-escalation with Iran far more likely – is set to soar when trading reopens late on Sunday, just what the upcoming Aramco IPO desperately needs, which in turn has prompted some to wonder if the “Yemen” attack on Saudi Arabia wasn’t in fact orchestrated by Saudi interests. 18 years after Sept 11, this shouldn’t sound all that outlandish…

end

Israel/Syria/Russia

Russia thwarts any new Israeli attacks on Syria

(zerohedge)

Israeli Attacks On Syria Halted After Russia Threatened To Shoot Down Jets

According to reports in both Israeli and Arabic regional media, Israel this past week was preparing to expand major airstrikes against “Iran-backed” targets in Syria, but Moscow imposed its red line. The Independent has published a story describing that Russia’s military in Syria threatened to shoot down any invading Israeli warplanes using fighter jets or their S-400 system.

The Jerusalem Post, citing sources in the UK Independent (Arabia), writes just after the latest meeting in Sochi between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin:

According to the report, Moscow has prevented three Israeli airstrikes on three Syrian outposts recently, and even threatened that any jets attempting such a thing would be shot down, either by Russian jets or by the S400 Anti-aircraft missiles. The source cited in the report claims a similar situation has happened twice, and that during August, Moscow stopped an airstrike on a Syrian outpost in Qasioun, where a S300 missile battery is placed.

Netanyahu’s hasty trip to meet with Putin on Thursday – even in the final days before Tuesday’s key election – was reportedly with a goal to press the Russian president on essentially ignoring Israel’s attacks in Syria.

Image via The Jerusalem Post

Citing further sources in the British-Arabic Independent ArabiaThe Jerusalem Post continues:

According to the Russian source, Putin let Netanyahu know that his country will not allow any damage to be done to the Syrian regime’s army, or any of the weapons being given to it…

Israel sources cited by the Arabic newspaper described Netanyahu’s attempts to persuade Putin as “a failure”. This in spite of Netanyahu telling reporters after the meeting that his relations with Moscow were stronger than ever.

Moscow is said to be particularly resistant given the Israeli military’s recent spate of attacks on targets in Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria.

Independent عربية

@IndyArabia

“”النفسية الحربية” التي عاد بها من روسيا حملت دلالات ضغوط وعدم ارتياح سرعان ما كُشف عن جوانب منها… وفي مركزها أنه لم يعد تلك الشخصية المهمة بالنسبة إلى ولا حتى بالنسبة https://www.independentarabia.com/node/55966

نتنياهو يعود من سوتشي بـ”روح الحرب” على غزة وسوريا

مع بدء العد التنازلي للانتخابات البرلمانية في إسرائيل، وتأكيد استطلاعات الرأي على عدم قدرة بنيامين نتنياهو على تشكيل الحكومة المقبلة، بدأ رئيس الحكومة الإسرائيلية بتصويب سهامه في اتجاهات عدة في آن

independentarabia.com

Sources in the report claimed further that Putin in a somewhat unprecedented moment raised the issue of Lebanon:

The Russian source said: “Putin has expressed his dissatisfaction from Israel’s latest actions in Lebanon” and even emphasized to Netanyahu that he “Rejects the aggression towards Lebanon’s sovereignty” something which has never been heard from him. Putin further stated that someone is cheating him in regards to Syria and Lebanon and that he will not let it go without a response. According to him, Netanyahu was warned not to strike such targets in the future.

It could also be simply that Putin understands that Netanyahu, now desperate to extend his political career to a record fifth term as prime minister as next week’s elections loom, could be ready to risk a major and very unnecessary Middle East conflagration in order to continue to appeal to Israeli right wing and nationalist voters.

end

Sunday

USA/IRAN.

TRUMP claims he is locked and loaded ready to attack the perpetrator of the Saudi attacok

(zerohedge)

Iran War Imminent? Trump Says US “Locked And Loaded” To Respond To Saudi Attack

Just as the price of oil was settling down from its record surge, it spiked once again, following a tweet by president Trump which has made war with Iran virtually inevitable.

Just before 7pm, Trump tweeted that “Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!

Setting aside the implicit admission that US foreign policy in the middle-east is now inexplicably run by Saudi Arabia, what is far more troubling is Trump’s statement that the US military is “locked and loaded”, and set to attack the country which instigated the attack on Saudi facilities, which according to Mike Pompeo was not Yemen, and its Houthi rebels, but rather Iran.

Now, as Bloomberg’s Javier Blas correctly notes, Trump’s tweet has left Saudi crown prince MbS boxed: “if he doesn’t point to #Iran, he’s likely to disappointing Trump, but he does, he could start an all-war with Tehran of unknown end. Needless to say, it is clear which option Saudi Arabia – which has been needling for war with Iran for years – will pick.

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

“Locked and loaded”

And “waiting to hear from the kingdom”. Now MbS is boxed: if he doesn’t point to , he’s likely to dissapointing Trump, but he does, he could start an all-war with Tehran of unknown end | 🇺🇸 🇸🇦 🇮🇷 ⛽️🛢 https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1173368423381962752 

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!

And just in case it is unclear how Saudi Arabia will order the US “to proceed“, back in May, The Arab News – a newspaper that has long been chaired by various sons of King Salman until 2014 and is regarded as reflecting official position – published an editorial in English on Thursday, arguing that after incidents this week against Saudi energy targets, the next logical step “should be surgical strikes.” One can be certain that this time, it will be even more vocal.

Meanwhile, one wonders just how credible the official narrative of Iran being behind the attacks is. Here are some thoughts:

hks55@hks55

Saudi story is very suspicious. Called it a drone attack. US satellites showed it was really a missile attack. Now Saudis agree it was a missile attack. No long term damage to the facilities. The tanks didn’t have anything in them or they would have exploded. Doesn’t add up.

The irony here is that just last week, Iran suddenly seemed on the cusp of renewed talks with the US after Trump unceremoniously sacked John Bolton, who had been pushing for an attack on Iran for years. And yet, with Bolton gone, his most desired outcome has been achieved with the US military now “locked and loaded” to attack Iran… One almost wonders where Bolton was when “Iran” was launching drones at Saudi Arabia.

Incidentally, anyone hoping that oil prices will drop once the US invades Iran will be very disappointed.

zerohedge@zerohedge

Because war with Iran will lower oil prices? https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1173368423381962752 

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!

For now, the market is clearly aware of what such an outcome would mean to oil prices, and not even Trump’s subsequent tweet that “PLENTY OF OIL!” will do anything to ease fears that a full-blown middle-eastern war may be coming.

end

Iran

Iran initially tries to release pressure on them as they are set to release the UK flagged tankers.

(zerohedge)

Iran To Release UK-Flagged Tanker As Rick Perry “Wholeheartedly Condemns” Attack On Saudi Arabia

In what has become an Alanis Morissette-level irony, the US is now back on the brink of all-out war with Iranless than one week after the administration’s biggest Iran hawk was shown the door. Having read the writing on the wall, the Iranians have decided to release a UK-flagged oil tanker that they have had in detention for nearly two months, Bloomberg reports.

The decision to release the UK tanker comes a few weeks after Britain released the Iranian-flagged Grace 1/Adrian Darya 1 tanker, a decision that the UK swiftly came to regret after the tanker appeared to violate assurances that it wouldn’t deliver its cargo of oil to Syria (violating EU sanctions in the process).

Washington has blamed Iran for this weekend’s attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil production facilities, which are expected to cut Saudi oil output in half until repairs can be completed. The attack was purportedly carried out by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who have a long history of launching attacks on Saudi soil. But President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have placed blame for the attacks squarely on the Iranians. As we noted over the weekend, the timing of the attack is suspicious, coming as the kingdom renews its push to float 5% of Aramco in what’s expected to be the largest-ever IPO. The offering would benefit from higher oil prices. Many have questioned why Saudi Arabia’s missile defense capabilities failed to stop the attack.

Iran has denied any responsibility for the attack.

his weekend’s attack wiped out 5% of the world’s oil supplies. The Kingdom believes it can restore one-third of the lost production capacity by the end of this week.

The UK tanker, the Stena Impero, will be released “in days,” according to Abbas Mousavi, spokesman at the foreign ministry in Tehran. The judicial process to clear the ship for release is nearly finished, and once it’s done, the ship can leave Iran.

Iran seized the ship on July 19 in retaliation for the UK’s seizure of the Adrian Darya 1.

Of course, the administration still has other options for punishing Iran short of instigating a military conflict, including cracking down on countries, including US allies, who are still buying Iranian oil in violation of US sanctions.

Rick

US Energy Secretary Rick Perry

Speaking Monday at the IAEA, US Energy Secretary Rick Perry said he believes the oil market will react “positively” to this weekend’s attack in Saudi Arabia, Reuters reports.

“Despite Iran’s malign efforts, we are very confident that the market is resilient and will respond positively,” he said in a speech.

Perry als

 

o slammed Iran, and urged Washington’s allies to do what they can to hold Tehran accountable.

“The United States wholeheartedly condemns Iran’s attack on Saudi Arabia and we call on other nations to do the same. This behavior is unacceptable. It’s unacceptable and they must be held responsible. Make no mistake about it. This was an attack on the global economy and the global energy market.”

To put this in context, international oil prices surged as much as 19% before coming off their highs, the biggest intraday jump since the 1991 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait.

end
Then..
Iran/UAE
Then to complicate things, Iran seizes an Emirates flagged ship in the Straits of Hormuz
(zerohedge)

Emirati-Flagged Ship Seized By Iran In Strait Of Hormuz On Suspicion Of Smuggling Diesel

Following reports that it’s planning to release a UK-flagged oil tanker that it seized two months ago, Iran has reportedly seized a UAE-flagged vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday and detained its 11-member crew.

The IRGC, which was responsible for seizing the vessel, accused it of smuggling diesel. The ship was reportedly carrying 250,000 liters of diesel when it was captured, along with 30 handheld flares, which are sometimes used for facilitating clandestine transfers at sea.

The ship’s crew are reportedly being held in the coastal city of Bandar Lengeh, though it’s unclear where their ship is being held.

“The ship was seized nearly 20 miles to the east of Greater Tunb with 11 seamen onboard while heading to the Arab United Emirate,” IRGC general Ali Azmaei told Iranian media.

The capture was initially reported by Iran’s FARS news agency, according to a tweet by Al Arabiya, a Saudi news organization.

العربية عاجل

@AlArabiya_Brk

وكالة فارس الإيرانية تنقل عن الحرس الثوري احتجاز سفينة بذريعة “تهريب الديزل” https://www.alarabiya.net

Amid all the drama at home, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani traveled to Ankara for a meeting with the presidents of Turkey and Russia on Monday.

خبرگزاری فارس

@FarsNews_Agency

روحانی که برای شرکت در نشست سه جانبه روسای جمهور ایران، ترکیه و روسیه به آنکارا سفر کرده، دقایقی پیش با اردوغان رییس جمهور ترکیه دیدار کرد.

View image on Twitter

In case the seizure ratchets up tensions with Iran even further, Navy data compiled by Stratfor offer a reminder that the US military remains “locked and loaded,” with one Carrier Strike Group and one Amphibious Ready Group stationed in the waters near Iran.

end
The Houtis claim responsibility but the missiles seemed to have come from the north.  And the sophistication of the attack and precision can only by the Iranian guard stationed in Iraq
(zerohedge)

Houthis Say It’s Not Over – Saudi Oil “Still Within Range”; Iraq Denies Its Territory Used

While US officials were quick out of the gate to allege an Iranian attack on Saudi Aramco facilities launched from Iraq early Saturday, a theory which the WSJ said was focus of an ongoing US-Saudi investigation,Iraq’s government issued a firm denial on Sunday, which followed Iran’s own denial that condemned Washington’s “maximum lies”. 

Saying there was no link to Iraqi soil and the attack which caused oil prices to spike to record levels the moment markets opened, initially surging to as much as 18% before retreating after President Trump authorized use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to “keep the markets well-supplied,” the Iraqi government further vowed to punish anyone who intended to use Iraq as a launchpad for attacks in the region.”

 

Fires rage after the attack on Abqaiq facility, screenshot via Reuters.

Despite Yemen’s Houthis themselves claiming responsibility for the precision strike using ten drones, unleashing explosions that rocked Abqaiq facility and the Khurais field, US officials have long eyed Iraq’s Shia paramilitary forces also as bad actors which Iran deploys as proxies from Iraqi soil.

Prior reports suggest Iran has indeed stationed ballistic missiles on Iraqi soil within the past year or so, within easy targeting range of key Saudi oil installations, as well as even Tel Aviv.

But crucially the Houthis have defiantly announced it’s not over: “The rebel group said its weapons could reach anywhere in Saudi Arabia. Saturday’s strikes were carried out by aircraft equipped with a new type of engine, the Houthi rebel group said,” Bloomberg reports.

Ali Ahmadi@AliAhmadi_Iran

Seems to undermine a primary argument from US gov/media that Houthis dont have the capacity to pull this off, therefore it must have been Iran. https://twitter.com/osamabinjavaid/status/1173243511132393472 

Osama Bin Javaid

@osamabinjavaid

Replying to @osamabinjavaid

This @WSJ map shows how “#Houthi” drone capabilities have increased with the support of #Iran – these drones can loiter but are not designed to return to base but can be controlled over long distances #Saudi #KSA via @andreas_krieg

View image on Twitter

“We assure the Saudi regime that our long hand can reach wherever we want, and whenever we want,” Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree said. The statement added threateningly:

“We warn companies and foreigners not to be present in the facilities that were hit in the strikes because they are still within range and may be targeted at any moment.”

Meanwhile, the official US position still seems to be Mike Pompeo’s sentiment expressed soon after the attack that there was “no evidence” it was carried out from Yemen.

US and Saudi officials, still amid an ongoing investigation, told reporters over the weekend they are “certain” the attack actually originated from Iraq, especially as the debris and precision targeting show a level of “sophistication” which would link it to Iran’s elite IRGC.

This as Trump said the U.S. is “locked and loaded depending on verification” of the source of the attack.

Of course there remains the possibility that the Houthis will again “prove” their capabilities by simply launching another devastating attack.

end

 

end

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia delays their IPO but also states that the damage is extensive and might take longer to put back on stream

(zerohedge)

Saudis Considering Delaying Aramco IPO As Output Recovery Expected To Take Longer

On Saturday, Saudi Arabia promised that it would  provide much needed information about the scope and severity of its damaged facilities within 48 hours, yet has so far failed to do so, leaving commodity traders scrambling and dependent on rumors and innuendo, to evaluate just how long the output shortage would last and how much oil would be taken offline for at least a few days (and potentially as long as months).

In retrospect, it now appears that we won’t be getting a detailed update any time soon because as the WSJ reports, the Saudis themselves have no idea what is going on, and are seeking “clarity on damage.” As a result, Saudi Arabia – which last week was said to be fast tracking its Aramco IPO after numerous delays – is once again said to be considering a delay for the IPO of the world’s most valuable company (its market cap is said to be $1.5-$2 trillion when it goes public), as the attacks have added “a fresh element of risk for international investors hoping to take part in Aramco’s initial public offering of stock”, the WSJ reports.

Separately, Bloomberg reports that Aramco officials “are growing less optimistic that there will be a rapid recovery in oil production after the attack on the giant Abqaiq processing plant”, although here too there is no official disclosure but rather “a person with knowledge of the matter” is the source.

All eyes are on how fast the kingdom can recover from the weekend’s devastating strike, which knocked out roughly 5% of global supply and triggered a record surge in oil prices. Initially, it was said that significant volumes of crude could being to flow again within days, but it may now take longer than previously thought to resume operations at the plant, the person said, asking not be named before an official announcement. The company is scheduled to provide an update later today.

While Aramco has been gearing up for a two-part IPO, in which it hopes to first sell a sliver of itself to investors on the local Saudi exchange, and then list shares internationally, the weekend attack puts into focus another new risk, unusual for most companies planning an IPO: the threat of more attacks that might bottle up production by cutting revenue and profit, or otherwise shake investor confidence in Aramco’s longer-term investment value.

The Aramco delay would also be a disastrous start to the new Saudi energy minister, MbS’s older brother, Abdulaziz bin Salman, or AbS, who as we reported last weekend, unexpectedly replaced Khalid al Falih as the Kingdom’s top energy official:

The attack also comes at a sensitive time for Aramco leadership. Khalid al Falih, who until recently led both Aramco, as chairman, and the country’s oil sector, as energy minister, was earlier this month relieved of those positions. Two officials untested by crises of this kind are now in charge: Yaser Rumayyan, who leads Saudi Arabia’s main sovereign-wealth fund, now heads Aramco and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ’s older brother, Abdulaziz bin Salman, is just days into his new job as energy minister.

A delay is also bad news for all the banks that were recently tapped to prepare the market for the monstrous IPO.

Aramco’s valuation has been a point of contention between Prince Mohammed, who runs the kingdom’s day-to-day affairs, and some bankers. The crown prince and his banking advisers expect the IPO could value the company at roughly $2 trillion and finance an ambitious program to diversify the economy beyond oil. Other bankers and several Aramco executives say the company should be valued at closer to $1.5 trillion. A key metric had long been the price of oil.

Yet while an Aramco delay may be tactical, the strategic victory would be if the market reprice oil notably higher due to the return of geopolitical risk premium. To be sure, while a modest delay may be in the works, Riyadh will be more than happy to accept it if it means going public with Brent at $70, and thus with an Aramco valuation closer to $2 trillion, than Brent at $60 or lower, and the company struggling to make $1.5 trillion.

In other words, if all it takes to boost the company’s valuation by $500 billion is a brief delay, then Saudi Arabia will be delighted to take it.

 

end

Bill Blain discusses why someone does not ask the Saudi’s why they are doing so badly against a totally unsophisticated Houthi tribesmen.  Blain is in our camp:  the attacks were very sophisticated as well as arriving from the North.  Which means that it was the Iranian Shiites inside Iraq (and under the Revolutionary Guard) which carried out the attack.  This is why Israel is trying to bomb these Iranian proxies out of existence.

(Bill Blain)

 

Blain: “Someone Should Ask Why Saudi Is Doing So Badly In Conflict With The Unsophisticated Houthi Tribesmen”

Blain’s Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain

“Sand, Sand and more Sand.. no wonder they are so grumpy.. ”

Just like comedy, the secret of a market-jarring global shock is TIMING..

As Washington scrambles for face-saving evidence to pin on Iran, there are some pretty fundamental questions to be asked about the weekend precision strikes on Saudi’s oil facilities.

There are the obvious market effects to consider: While production might be swiftly repaired and resumed – the price spike is going to change behaviours dramatically in terms of energy trading and hedging.  While there is capacity to cover lost production short-term, raising the threat level will change price expectations long-term.  How quickly can the globe shift supply from the Middle East if this brews up into a full regional conflict?  How could China scrabbling for new oil sources impact prices?  The attack begs questions about oil inflation, global resilience to an oil shock, and has every analyst scribbling about his compares to previous oil shocks.  And an oil shock in the week the Fed meets to discuss another US rate cut? Interesting….

The success of the strike, (taking out the production facilities has been tried before, but never with such stunning success), cast doubts on both US and Saudi intelligence and competence. In terms of timing the attackers chose their moment spectacularly well.

It was a precision attack on Saudi’s regional credibility – and by extension on Trump and the US.  The competence of Trump’s buddy, de-facto ruler Crown Prince MBS is on the line. Saudi is the third highest defence spending nation at $69 bln, and ranks highest global spender in terms of 8.8% of GDP!  So why is Saudi doing so badly in the conflict with supposedly unsophisticated Houthi tribesmen?  Someone should probably be asking questions about what the recently arrived US forces sent by Trump and their Patriot missiles were up to.

Clobbering Aramco just days after Crown Prince MBS effectively sacked the respected oil industry veteran Khalid al-Falih and replaced him with a political ally and head of the Saudi SWF, looks almost prescient.  Without the proceeds of the Aramco sale – Saudi is in trouble trying to balance reform, growth and sentiment.  It’s a gift to any internal Saudi dissent.  This is a Morning Porridge I wrote earlier this year on Saudi and Aramco – bit out of date, but sums up the issues.

Even more interesting is going to be the reaction in Washington.  Trump immediately authorised the use of the Strategic Reserve, but politically, it’s been chaotic.  The Saudi’s have not said it was Iran, yet Mike Pompeo beat Trump with an immediate Tweet pinning the blame on Tehran.  He’s slimed and oozed his way to become Trump’s closest advisor. Now’s he’s trying to fill uber-hawk’s John Bolton’s shoes (the National Security Advisor sacked last week).

Let’s assume it was the Iranians – and they know just how dysfunctional the White House has become.  Brilliant timing – unbalance Trump as he stumbles trying to replace Bolton.  Moments after he sacked Bolton, Trump had been tweeting about meeting Iran’s leaders in NY at the UN meeting.  Now he claims the US is “locked and loaded” and will act when it’s verified – which means Pompeo’s claims were premature.  The Iranian’s will be betting Trump will talk tough and do nothing.

All eyes on Oil Prices today, and what comes out of Washington. Messy doesn’t begin to describe it.

Elsewhere I was going to write about the slowing Chinese economy – worst industrial production numbers in years, and the risks of fiscal reflation in Europe.. but these can wait for tomorrow.

Meanwhile…  back in the UK….

Boris goes to Luxembourg to meet Jean-Claude Juncker. What a treat for them both.

I found myself watching the Last Night of the Proms on Saturday Night.  Great fun.  What was very interesting was the flag ratio in the Albert Hall.  Lots of entitled sorts in the front rows and on the floor, wearing European Union hats and waving European Union flags. I’d say they outnumbered the Union Jacks about 3:1.  Then the scene went to the Proms in the Park from London and Swansea – and the ratios must have been at least 10:1 in favour of the Union Jack.  Nary a European flag to be seen.  6000 posh folk paying £100s for their tickets in the Albert Hall want to remain, while the 120,000 mere commoners attending the free concerts are happy to wave the flag of their country…

No point in mentioning Scotland – a sea of Saltires (The White on Blue St Andrew’s Cross).

end
IRAN/USA
Before the USA attacks Iran, Trump wants definitive proof that they were behind the attacks and that makes sense
(zerohedge)

De-escalation: Trump Doesn’t Want “War With Anyone”, Wants “Definitive Proof” Iran Behind Attacks

With the war drums beating loudly ever since Mike Pompeo accused Iran of launching the drone strike that crippled Aramco oil production, moments ago the odds of an imminent war with Iran de-escalated materially after President Trump said it was “looking like Iran was behind this weekend’s attacks” on Saudi oil facilities, but added that “he doesn’t want to go war with anyone.”

“It’s certainly looking that way at this moment,” Trump says in response to a question whether Iran was responsible for the attacks.

“I don’t want to have war with anybody” but our military is prepared, Trump says at the White House, where he was meeting with Bahrain Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa. Furthermore, the president said the US is not looking at retaliatory options until he has “definitive proof” that Iran was responsible for attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities.

Still, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that the US “is prepared” if the attacks warrant a response.

 

Also notably, when asked if he has promised to protect the Saudis, the president responded “No, I haven’t promised the Saudis that… We have to sit down with the Saudis and work something out.”

Trump’s statement followed a push by the White House to walk balk Trump’s belligerent “locked and loaded” comment from Sunday night.

Sarah Reese Jones

@PoliticusSarah

The White House scrambles to walk back Trump’s locked and loaded threat to Iran.

Embedded video

Meanwhile, in a separate confirmation that war tensions appeared to de-escalate, the Arab News, the semi-official paper of record of the royal family, reported that the Kingdom’s Foreign Ministry said international experts, including from the UN, will be invited to participate in the investigation to determine who was behind the attack, suggesting that a conclusive determination is at best weeks if not months away.

Preliminary investigations showed that Iranian weapons were used in the attack, which knocked out more than half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production and damaged the world’s biggest crude processing plant, the ministry statement said.

“The kingdom is capable of defending its land and people and responding forcefully to those attacks,” it added.

The ministry said the attack above all targeted global oil supplies and called it an extension of previous hostile acts against oil pumping stations in May.

The Houthis have carried out scores of attacks against Saudi Arabia using drones and ballistic missiles.

Al-Maliki labelled the Houthis “a tool in the hands of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and the terrorist regime of Iran.”

The attacks against Abqaiq, the world’s largest oil processing facility, and the Khurais oil field in eastern Saudi Arabia knocked out nearly half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production.

end

 

6.Global Issues

The global slowdown is also causing a massive shortage of dollars as a reserve currency and that is sucking out the blood of trade

(Jeffrey Snider)

 

Demystifying The Global US Dollar Shortage

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

Trade between Asia and Europe has dimmed considerably. We know that from the fact Germany and China are the two countries out of the majors struggling the most right now. As a consequence of the slowing, shipping companies have had to make adjustments to their fleet schedules over and above normal seasonal variances.

It was reported last week that Maersk and MPC would “temporarily suspend” their sailings on one of the biggest routes between Europe and Asia.

Weakening demand and plummeting freight rates have so far obliged Asia-North Europe carriers to blank two-thirds more sailings than during the same period of last year, and now the 2M alliance is to suspend the loop for the second consecutive year.

This followed a material downgrade in Mexico, of all places, another economic system highly dependent at the margins on the whims of global trade. At the end of August, Banxico, the colloquial name for the country’s central bank, joined the growing chorus of global policymakers shifting into active “accommodation.” It was Mexico’s first rate cut since 2014.

Mexico’s central bank slashed its growth forecast for this year, predicting the weakest expansion since the 2009 financial crisis amid a slowdown in demand and global and domestic uncertainty.

Everywhere you turn, there are references to global demand while at the same time, by my own unscientific count, fewer and less emphatic protests over trade wars.

The latter is still being talked about, of course, but the idea of trade war “sentiment” being the cause of these worldwide woes may be losing steam if only because it just doesn’t add up.

Something else has to be restraining trade well beyond any Chinese goods heading toward the United States waiting to be further tariffed. This is widespread, very close to universal.

That’s why US exports, for example, are struggling. By conventional terms, that should be the case – the dollar began rising in the middle of last year making US goods less attractive meaning relatively more expensive on world markets. There is a reason why US Presidents claim a strong dollar policy (as if there could be one) in public and in private (and sometimes public) cheer whenever it falls in exchange value.

But as the struggles in the rest of the world show, the American loss is no one’s gain. That’s the part none of them ever get – this isn’t the losing end of beggar-thy-neighbor. The rising dollar leaves no winners in its wake. None.

Rather than redistribute stable purchasing power and reflect strong demand toward relative changes in costs, what’s left is only weakening demand in all cases. Europe, Asia, Central and South America, even the United States.

According to estimates released by the Census Bureau this week, US exports are now routinely falling. Unadjusted, exports to the rest of the world have contracted in each of the last five months (through July 2019). Not by huge amounts, though in June it was just about -5%, more importantly the 6-month average has reached -1.2%.

Seasonally-adjusted, the Census Bureau leaves no doubt as to the cause. The peak in the reflation export cycle was unsurprisingly May 2018 (29th). The dollar goes up, and collateral draws tight, global trade suffers not because of trade wars or the cost of US goods relative to alternatives but because the lack of sufficient dollar availability slowly squeezes the life out of global demand.

Trade suffers first because the global reserve currency is its first requirement, the ability to fluently, efficiently translate economic factors from one system to another. There’s almost no appreciation for the functions – and what those actually are – of a global reserve.

We give almost no consideration to what a reserve currency is today. It is almost always thought of in terms of something like oil, the US dollar means people in the United States get to price the vital commodity in their own currency. Some like to talk about a petrodollar as if that actually means something…

A reserve currency is an intermediator, more than a buffer between national systems often with very little in common. Starting with currency denomination and monetary terms. The example I often use is an export firm in Sweden obtaining goods in that country to be shipped to Japan for final use. The trade can certainly happen without a global reserve, but not efficiently…

If, however, both sides can use a currency that is common in both areas it then obviates the need for either of their national denominations. Should Japanese as well as Swedish banks both hold balances of this middle currency as a regular part of their business, no special concessions required, then trade becomes easy and (very nearly) free.

The downside is that this requires a whole lot of that middle currency to be made available practically everywhere.

You can then see why global trade downshifted in and around the Great “Recession” and never really came back – though it was predicted to, and everyone especially in the EM’s was counting on it. Before the Global Financial Crisis in that eurodollar system, the middle currency was freely available for use anywhere. Nowadays, it’s so much harder to source and maintain funding.

It doesn’t shut off trade completely, but it does slowly squeeze the life out of it over time. The global regime is starved of its monetary oxygen. That’s why there are no winners; the dollar shortage isn’t a redistribution of demand, it is the slow erosion and even destruction of it (as it infiltrates the supply side, like in China).

We see these same effects on the other side of the US merchandise ledger, too. While American importers are bringing in fewer Chinese goods because they are being marked up by levies, they aren’t making up for them by buying extra anywhere else. Imports into the US are falling as inventory builds up across the domestic supply chain.

The global slowdown is a global slowdown. The monetary squeeze is not entirely fixated on global trade, that’s just where it is most visible and easily discernible. It therefore proposes a far different set of solutions (from a US perspective) than kill the dollar.

If only it was that easy.

MacroVoices Podcast@MacroVoices

MacroVoices @ErikSTownsend and @PatrickCeresna welcome @JeffSnider_AIP and @LukeGromen to the show to discuss the impact of changing Eurodollar markets, the global dollar liquidity shortage and the future changes in global reserve currencies & more.http://bit.ly/2lOWHQP

View image on Twitter
end

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil initially rises by 20% on news of the Iranian bombing of the Saudi oil facilities but it clams down a bit when Trum announces he will sell oil from the SPR

(zerohedge|)

Oil Explodes 20% Higher, Biggest Jump On Record

Update (2100ET): Even the algos are confused at which way to push things…

In context.

And Shanghai Oil futures are halted limit up.

Source: Bloomberg

*  *  *

With traders in a state of near-frenzy, with a subset of fintwit scrambling (and failing) to calculate what the limit move in oil would be (hint: there is none for Brent), moments ago brent reopened for trading in the aftermath of Saturday’s attack on the “world’s most important oil processing plant“, and exploded some 20% higher, to a high of $71.95 from the Friday $60.22 close, its biggest jump since futures started trading in 1988.

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg notes, “for oil markets, it’s the single worst sudden disruption ever, surpassing the loss of Kuwaiti and Iraqi petroleum supply in August 1990, when Saddam Hussein invaded his neighbor. It also exceeds the loss of Iranian oil output in 1979 during the Islamic Revolution, according to data from the U.S. Department of Energy.”

Furthermore, in light of news that the Saudi outage could last for months, this could be just the start. As a reminder, according to Morningstar research director, Sandy Fielden, “Brent could go to $80 tomorrow, while WTI could go to $75… But that would depend on Aramco’s 48-hour update. The supply problem won’t be clear right away since the Saudis can still deliver from inventory.”

Of course, should Aramco confirm that the outage – which has taken some 5.7mmb/d in Saudi output after 10 drones struck the world’s biggest crude-processing facility in Abqaiq and the kingdom’s second-biggest oil field in Khurais – will last for weeks, expect the crude juggernaut to continue until the price hits $80, and keeps moving higher.

Finally, here is the price summary from Goldman commodity strategist Damien Courvalin, who earlier today laid out four possible shutdown scenarios, and the price oil could hit for each:

  • A very short outage – a week for example – would likely drive long-dated prices higher to reflect a growing risk premium, although short of what occurred last fall given a debottlenecked Permian shale basin, a weaker growth outlook and prospects of strong non-OPEC production growth in 2020. Such a price impact could likely be of $3-5/bbl.
  • An outage at current levels of two to six weeks would, in addition to this move in long-dated prices, see a steepening of the Brent forward curve (2-mo vs. 3-year forward) of $2 to $9/bbl respectively. All in, the expected price move would be between $5 and $14/bbl, commensurate to the length of the outage (a six month outage of 1 mb/d would be similar to a six week one at current levels).
  • Should the current level of outage be announced to last for more than six weeks, we expect Brent prices to quickly rally above $75/bbl, a level at which we believe an SPR release would likely be implemented, large enough to balance such a deficit for several months and cap prices at such levels.
  • An extreme net outage of a 4 mb/d for more than three months would likely bring prices above $75/bbl to trigger both large shale supply and demand responses.

What are the broader implications from this move? According to Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen, “the global economy can ill afford higher oil prices at a time of economic slowdown.” But Peter Boockvar’s hot take may be the best one.

Peter Boockvar@pboockvar

I guess central bankers are pretty happy with the Iranians as they might actually get the inflation they’ve been rooting for.

Yet while the inflationary impact from this surge will be transitory at best, it will be interesting to watch the Fed cut rates with stocks at all time highs, and with gasoline prices set for their biggest surge in decades.

Source: Bloomberg

Safe havens are also bid with gold futures back above $1500.

The good news: at least Trump will redirect his anger away from the Fed and toward slow, lazy, incompetent Saudi engineers, if only for the time being.

end

This afternoon:

WTI Crude Soars Back To Overnight Highs

Just when you thought it wasn’t as bad the headlines made it out to be, WTI crude futures have ramped all the way back to take out the kneejerk highs from Sunday night’s open…

WTI is up over 15% and we noted that the term structure for Brent has adjusted higher all the way out to 2024…

Source: Bloomberg

end

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1038 DOWN .0031 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.73 DOWN 0.291 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2444   DOWN   0.0045  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3252 DOWN .0030 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE RED DOWN 0.48 POINTS OR 0.02% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 28.14 POINTS OR 0.83%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,02%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 228.14 POINTS OR 0.83%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.48 POINTS OR 0.02%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 02% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 228.08  POINTS OR 1.05%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1504.40

silver:$17.87-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.83% !!! DOWN 7 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.30 DOWN 7  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 98.39 UP 14 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.27% DOWN 5 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.15%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.26%//UP 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.84 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 58 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.48% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.32% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1008  DOWN     .0061 or 61 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.797 DOWN .050 OR YEN UP50  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2424 DOWN .0066 POUND DOWN 66  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 41 basis points to 1.3242

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0643    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0437  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7171 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.15%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 6 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1,84 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.30 DOWN 7 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.64 UP 38  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 14.58  OR  0.36%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 88.22 POINTS OR .71%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 53.23 POINTS 0.94%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 85.90 POINTS or 0.94%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 212.17 POINTS OR 0.96%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 61.16 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 67.46 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    64,96  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.42 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 15 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.48 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  62.02//

 

 

BRENT :  67.70

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.84… down 6 basis pts

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.30.. down 7 basis pts.

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1008 ( DOWN 61   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.07 UP .048 (YEN DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.60 UP 34 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2424 DOWN 65  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7320

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.99   UP 0.39 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 9 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3246 UP 37 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.06130  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.05350 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.48%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 143.31 POINTS OR 0.53%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 23.17 POINTS OR 0.28%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  14.78 CLOSED UP 1.04

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.139%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Oilmageddon: Surveying The Aftermath

Black gold meet black swan…

A strike on a Saudi refinery overnight sparked initially chaotic scenes in markets globally, but by the end of the day things had calmed a little – perhaps as the eye of the margin-call storm passes overhead.

Brent soared almost 20% initially but faded a little during the day, breaking above all its major moving averages…

 

Source: Bloomberg

WTI soared too and squeeze back up to overnight highs ahead of the NYMEX close, ran the stops, then faded…

 

And don’t forget the machines wreaked havoc overnight…

Chinese equities were mixed (having been off on Friday) with the majors lower and small cap, tech higher (despite a full house of ugly macro data)…

Source: Bloomberg

And European stocks opened down hard and were unable to regain green…

Source: Bloomberg

The broad US equity markets were mixed with Small Caps dramatically outperforming and the S&P 500 leading the losers (with Trannies down)…

Futures show the initial pain was significant but the dip-buying algos were not going to stand around and let that happen…

Energy stocks all soared…

Source: Bloomberg

As did Defense stocks (war is good)

Source: Bloomberg

Both Momentum and Value stocks were weaker today…

Source: Bloomberg

“Most Shorted” stocks were squeezed once again!!

Source: Bloomberg

Cyclicals and Defensives were weaker on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were notably lower on the day as safe-haven bids dominated (and issuance was de minimus)…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields reversed at the critical downtrend line…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar soared from the opening kneejerk lower, back to pre-Draghi levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan fell to its overnight fix and stabilized…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were mixed with Bitcoin lower and Altcoins higher..

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin tumbled around 8amET, but held above $10,000 for now…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, commodityland was dominated by crude’s surge but we note that copper slipped lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold futures surged back above $1500 and despite an effort to crack them lower, held their gains…

 

Silver outperformed, testing back up to $18…

And Oil ‘VIX’ surged to its highest since Dec 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

Hold on tight for your gas prices to surge at the pump…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as we detailed heresomething much more significant broke today than the oil market… Repo rates exploded to 7% intraday (according to one repo trader)

Source: Bloomberg

And China’s economic data dumped overnight…

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

the official sector at work

Traders Buy Stocks, Dump Bonds & Bullion As War Rhetoric Rises

Makes perfect sense.

Saudis agree with US that “Iran did it”, the US president says the military is “locked and loaded” and what do markets do – bid stocks, buy USDollar, and dump safe-havens like bonds and gold…

The dollar is soaring…

Source: Bloomberg

And the machines ramped the S&P back above 3,000 to confirm everything is awesome…

Markets have become entirely unglued from reality.

end

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

In a nutshell, barely above zero//Empire Manufacturing Report

(Empire or NY Manufacturing Survey Report)

 

 

Empire State factory index remains barely above zero in September

Sept 16, 2019 8:37 a.m. ET

Manufacturing index edges down 2.8 points to 2

The numbers: The Empire State business conditions index fell 2.8 points to 2 in September, the New York Fed said Monday. Economists had expected little change and a reading of 4.9, according to a survey by Econoday.

Any reading above zero indicates improving conditions.

What happened: The details of the report were weak. The new orders index fell 3.2 points to 3.5 in September. The shipments index fell 3.5 points to 5.8, its lowest level in nearly three years. The unfilled-orders index remained negative for the fourth straight month. The employment index was one bright spot, rebounding out of negative territory.

Big picture: Weakness in manufacturing is one key reason the Federal Reserve is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate for the second straight meeting later this week. Trade tensions, global weakness and a strong dollar have combined to hit the factory sector hard. The Empire State Index is the first of several regional manufacturing readings that give economists a sense of national trends. The closely watched national ISM factory index slumped to 49.1 in August, a sign of contraction of activity and the lowest level since January 2016.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

More retail bricks and mortar carnage as Forever 21 is about the bite the dust

(zerohedge)

Retail Carnage Continues: Forever 21 Bankruptcy Expected By Sunday

The collapse of the brick and mortar retail space is continuing at a breakneck pace in 2019. The latest victim, Forever 21, is expected to file for bankruptcy as soon as Sunday, according to the Wall Street Journal. JP Morgan is the company’s most senior lender and has agreed to roll over its loan to the retailer into a bankruptcy financing package, according to the report.

But despite “people familiar with the matter” claiming that bankruptcy is imminent, the company has come out and said that it doesn’t have any plans to file for bankruptcy.

It said: “Our stores are open and it is our intention to continue to operate the vast majority of U.S. stores, as well as a smaller amount of international stores, providing customers with great service and the curated assortment of merchandise that they love and expect from Forever 21. Please visit our store locator to find the most up to date store list.”

Let’s revisit that statement early next week.

This bankruptcy marks the latest in what has been nothing short of carnage so far this year for the retail industry. Between January and June in 2019, more than 7,000 retail stores closed. This amounts to more than all of the stores that closed throughout the entire year of 2018. Many were hurt by a lackluster holiday shopping season at the end of 2018.

Reorg First Day@ReorgFirstDay

2019 chapter 11 filings are up 18% year-over-year

View image on Twitter

Robert Feinstein, a bankruptcy lawyer who represents creditors in major retail bankruptcies, including Payless and Gymboree said: “The headwinds for retail are gaining hurricane force.”

Forever 21’s biggest misstep came when it expanded by opening large stores at a time younger consumers were making a shift online to shop. The company gambled by moving into stores that were sometimes double or triple the size of its previous locations. It pushed into new categories like menswear, footwear, lingerie and plus sizes to help fill the new space. The result were stores that felt too “cavernous” and merchandise that felt repetitive.

Its struggles prompted the company to enter into talks with its landlords about shrinking its retail space and renegotiating leases. The company has also been in the midst of a months long search for a loan and is currently facing a cash crunch. One of the sources told the Journal that the chain is planning to shut down more than 700 stores in bankruptcy.

Some retailers have adapted quicker than others to “the Amazon effect”.

For instance, both Walmart and Target posted rising sales in the second quarter, as a promising mix of physical stores and online sales has paid off for both of them. At the same time, overall retail sales continue to remain solid as a result of a relatively “strong economy” and low unemployment.

But that doesn’t mean that the challenges are over, according to Jeffrey Gennette, CEO of Macy’s. He said: “The competition is fierce. Retail is certainly not for the faint of heart.”

In the first six months of 2019, companies like Payless, Gymboree and Charlotte Russe all filed for bankruptcy. Fourteen total retailers with at least twenty stores each have filed for bankruptcy this year, according to BDO. The list also includes Charming Charlie Holdings Inc., Barneys New York, A’Gaci and Avenue Stores.

Reorg First Day@ReorgFirstDay

Since June 2015, retail chains have accumulated more than $45 billion in aggregate chapter 11 liabilities in connection with over 80 bankruptcy filings:

View image on Twitter

Many of these companies have closed down stores as a result of their respective bankruptcies. Some retailers are dropping their well-known flagship stores and instead opting for smaller locations in urban areas.

During the first half of 2019, 19 retailers said that they would close a combined 7200 stores. Payless, Gymboree and Charlotte Russe accounted for about 3,700 of these on their own.

For comparison, last year, there weren’t even 6,000 total store closings announced. There were 6,600 closings in 2017. Recall, we reported in mid 2019 that 12,000 stores were forecasted to close this year.

Marshal Cohen, chief retail analyst at NPD Group, says the U.S. simply has too many stores per capita. He said: “We don’t need as many stores as we have. Bankruptcies used to be a dirty word. Bankruptcies is a way to clean up your challenged business.”

end
Purdue Pharma files for bankruptcy which should be a very messy affair
(zerohedge)

OxyContin Maker Purdue Pharma Files For Bankruptcy As Dozens Of States Decline Proposed Settlement

Just hours after the company’s board signed off on a proposed settlement with more than 2,000 litigants, including dozens of US states,the embattled US drugmaker Purdue Pharma filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, a long-anticipated move aimed at shielding the company and its owners, the Sackler family, from financial ruin as they shoulder the brunt of the blame for igniting the opioid crisis with their aggressive marketing tactics of OxyContin.

At a time when some 130 Americans are dying every day from opioid-related overdoses, Purdue is hoping that its settlement will placate most of these plaintiffs, allowing the company to restructure and emerge from bankruptcy, likely under new ownership. Though many litigants agreed to the company’s settlement proposal last week, a number of holdouts, including two dozen states, refused, insisting on more onerous terms for Purdue, the New York Times reports.

The company was the first to introduce fast-acting OxyContin to market in the 1990s, the drug that more than any other pharmaceutical has been blamed for jump-starting the opioid crisis.

Purdue faces lawsuits from nearly every state, as well as some 2,600 cities, counties, Native American tribes, hospitals and other entities seeking compensation for the costs of the opioid epidemic, according to the Wall Street Journal.

But last week, the Attorney General of New York uncovered wire transfers from Purdue to Swiss bank accounts controlled by the Sacklers, which revived critics’ anger at the Sacklers, who have maintained that they did nothing wrong in the marketing of OxyContin.

According to a series of leaks, terms of the proposal include: The Sacklers surrendering ownership of the company and paying $3 billion in cash to the plaintiffs over seven years, and selling their UK-based drug company, Mundipharma. The proceeds from that sale would add “substantial further monetary contributions” to the settlement pot.

Purdue has assessed the value of the settlement at $10 billion, while the 26 states that are opposing the settlement insist that Purdue’s numbers are bogus, and rely on overly optimistic projections.

Rumors of a bankruptcy filing have been circulating since the summer of 2018, when Purdue named restructuring specialist Steve Miller as chairman and hired law firm Davis, Polk & Wardwell.

end

Trump praises USA energy independence.  That is true but the shale industry needs 100 dollar per barrel to stay profitable.  Once Saudi oil comes back on stream, oil will collapse in price making shale unprofitable

(zerohedge)

Trump Praises US Energy Independence After Saudi Attack: “We Don’t Need Middle Eastern Oil”

With international oil prices soaring following this weekend’s attack in Saudi Arabia, which has indefinitely crippled as much as half of its oil-production capacity, President Trump sent a tweet Monday morning to try and reassure markets that the US is now energy independent and doesn’t need crude from the Middle East in what looks like an attempt to send prices lower.

“Because we have done so well with Energy over the last few years (thank you, Mr. President!), we are a net Energy Exporter, & now the Number One Energy Producer in the World. We don’t need Middle Eastern Oil & Gas, & in fact have very few tankers there, but will help our Allies!

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Because we have done so well with Energy over the last few years (thank you, Mr. President!), we are a net Energy Exporter, & now the Number One Energy Producer in the World. We don’t need Middle Eastern Oil & Gas, & in fact have very few tankers there, but will help our Allies!

The takeaway from the tweet is that Trump’s threatening posture toward Iran, which Washington has blamed from the attack, is simply an example of the US standing up for Saudi Arabia since its a critical regional ally. The US’s energy supplies are not being threatened.

Trump has a point about his policies helping to bolster the US energy industry. Democrats, particularly those who have embraced AOC’s ‘Green New Deal’ are much more hostile to the US energy industry. Among the candidates seeking the 2020 nomination, Elizabeth Warren has promised to shut down US shale drilling on her first day as president, something that would irreparably damage the US energy industry and kill any hopes of continued energy independence.

We wonder: Will she reevaluate that promise now?

The huge funding requirement of the Government is playing havoc to our repo or (collateral market).  There seems to be a huge shortage of proper collateral as well as USA dollar reserves (see Jeffrey Snider)
(zerohedge)

Something Just Snapped: Chaos Hits Repo Market As “Dollar Funding Storm” Makes Thunderous Landfall

Late last Friday, we warned that a “dollar funding storm” is set to make landfall in the US amid a series of converging sources of pressure that we said would result in “secured funding markets breaking higher”, among which:

  1. elevated UST supply,
  2. bloated dealer balance sheets and year-end regulatory constraints, and
  3. a banking system near reserve scarcity.

Ironically, it was the rising recession concerns in August – manifesting in the form of an inverted yield curve, cash hiding in repo, and a slow build in UST supply – that kept secured funding pressures at bay. However, as we explicitly noted last Friday, “clear signs of funding pressure could emerge starting next week with sizeable coupon settlements and the mid-September corporate tax date.”

Fast forward to today, i.e. “next week” when the dollar funding storm we warned about has just made thunderous landfall and the overnight general collateral repo rate, an indicator of secured market stress and by extension, dollar funding shortages, soared from Friday’s close of 2.25% to a high of 3.80%, a spike of over 150bps…

… and its biggest one day move since the bizarre GC repo explosion on December 31, 2018.

Commenting on today’s shocking move, BMO rates strategist Jon Hill said that “secured funding markets are clearly not functioning well,” adding that a jump like this, one which is not happening during the traditional quarter end window dressing period, is “bordering on chaos.”

Needless to say, such a move – without a clear catalyst – is a clear indication that plumbing in the overnight funding markets has just snapped, and is badly broken to be trading so far above the effective funds rate. As Bloomberg adds, the spike suggests the next few months could be volatile given the expected increase in Treasury supply, bloated dealer balance sheets, regulatory issues and a banking system where reserves are scarce.

Picking up where he left off in his Friday note, BofA head of rates strategy Mark Cabana said that while “one day is not a big deal, if funding pressures persist, it implies a loss of control of funding markets,” adding what we pointed out previously, namely that “If the market is struggling now, it raises questions about how well the market will handle the fourth-quarter funding squeeze.”

While there was no immediate catalyst, as we explained on Friday, the reason behind Monday’s GC repo explosion is a combination of factors including the settlement of the mid-month Treasury coupon auctions that pushed collateral into the repo market, even as cash is leaving the funding space as corporations have withdrawn cash parked with banks and money-market funds to make their quarterly tax payment.

But the biggest reason for the sudden dollar shortage is that as discussed extensively, following the recent debt ceiling deal, the Treasury is aggressively pushing its cash balance higher while depleting the amount of bank reserves in the system.

The drop-off in reserves and fund outflows is driving up funding rates and is starting to spill into the fed funds market because repo’s attractive yields can draw some lenders away from the unsecured market.

Which again brings us the $64 trillion question: as a reminder, on Friday we concluded by asking rhetorically, “how to determine if the dollar funding squeeze will cause another major risk off episode?” Here, BofA said that as the Fed starts to test these reserve lows, “we expect funding markets to react by showing further Treasury cheapening, widening of FRA-OIS, and narrowing of front-end spreads & SOFR-FF basis.”

However, once the Fed responds by engaging in repo or outright UST purchase operations we expect these markets to move in the opposite direction. We suggest clients continue to trade these themes tactically and consider moving out of UST cheapening positions as fed funds rises towards the IOER +15 to +20 bps level.

We also said that “if the Fed wants to front-run the funding shortage, and aggressively inject liquidity into the system, nothing prevents it from following in the ECB’s footsteps and hint at another round of QE in the near future: not only would that send stocks soaring in the asset bubble’s “Icarus song”, but it would also make Trump happy, if only until it all comes crashing down.”

The problem for the Fed is that following today’s massive move in repo higher, it now appears that the Fed is once again behind the curve, and this time the funding squeeze could have dire consequences for not only the economy but the market, as the broken repo plumbing means that despite $1.4 trillion in excess reserves, one or more banks are suddenly left without liquidity, which as we explained over a month ago in “Forget China, The Fed Has A Much Bigger Problem On Its Hands”, the only alternative Powell may soon have is to restart QE.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Horowitz completes his FISA abuse probe and it is to be made public

\(zerohedge)

DOJ Inspector General Completes FISA Abuse Probe; To Be Made Public After Review

DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz has completed his investigation into potential FBI abuse of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act during its counterintelligence investigation into the Trump campaign, according to a letter from Georgia Rep. Doug Collins (R) to House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler.

Horowitz informed Attorney General William Barr on Friday that he had completed his probe.

“Earlier today, Department of Justice (DOJ) Inspector General Michael Horowitz notified Attorney General William Barr of the completion of his investigation into possible abuses of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance of Act (FISA) by DOJ officials during the 2016 presidential election,” wrote Collins, who called on Nadler to invite Horowitz and FBI Director Christopher Wray to testify after the report has undergone Judiciary Committee review and then made public.

“After the DOJ has a chance to review and comment on the report, it will be sent to the Judiciary Committee and made public,” wrote Collins.

In late June, Horowitz informed several congressional committees that his probe was “nearing completion,” and that his office had interviewed over 100 witnesses and reviewed more than 1 million documents, according to the Daily Caller‘s Chuck Ross.

The FBI relied heavily on the infamous and unverified Steele dossier in applications for the warrants.

The special counsel’s report severely undercut dossier author Christopher Steele’s claim that there was a “well-developed conspiracy of co-operation” between the Trump campaign and Russian government.

The special counsel said there was no evidence of a conspiracy involving the Trump team. There was also no evidence that Page or any other Trump associates acted as agents of Russia.

Republicans have accused the FBI of mishandling the dossier, and failing to disclose to FISA Court judges that the DNC and Clinton campaign had hired Steele to investigate Trump. Investigators with the OIG reportedly interviewed Steele in London, where he is based, in early June. –Daily Caller

According to Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), top Republican on the House Oversight and Reform Committee, Horowitz will likely conclude that the FBI illegally obtained FISA warrants against 2016 Trump campaign aide Carter Page.

I think he will,” said Jordan during an discussion with Fox News‘s Sean Hannity and Gregg Jarrett Monday night.

And in Decembera string of emails quietly requested by House Republicans for declassification by President Trump may provide the smoking gun in the FISA abuse case.

The email exchanges show the FBI was aware — before it secured the now-infamous warrant — that there were intelligence community concerns about the reliability of the main evidence used to support it: the Christopher Steele dossier.

The exchanges also indicate FBI officials were aware that Steele, the former MI6 British intelligence operative then working as a confidential human source for the bureau, had contacts with news media reporters before the FISA warrant was secured. –The Hill

This is a good one!! Will McCabe bring the FBI and the whole enchilada with him?
(courtesy Sibueski.American Thinker BLog)

Will McCabe Bring The FBI Down With Him?

Authored by Daniel John Sobieski via The American Thinker blog,

The DoJ’s rejection of a last-ditch appeal by the legal team representing fired FBI Director Andrew McCabe and the recommendation by federal prosecutors that charges actually be filed against the documented liar, leaker, and co-conspirator in the attempted coup against duly elected President Donald Trump puts the deep state in a face-to-face confrontation with a potential legal Armageddon. An indictment will leave McCabe with no excuse for not carrying out his threat to bring them all down with him.

Before his firing, McCabe sent a shot across  the bow of his co-conspirators in the plots to keep Hillary Clinton out of prison and Donald Trump out of the White House, according to Fox News correspondent Adam Housely in a series of tweets reported by Gateway Pundit at the time of the firing:

Fox News reporter Adam Housley reported on Twitter tonight about the firing of FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, stating his sources were telling him that in the past few days McCabe threatened to “take people down with him” if he was fired…

8:31 p.m. PDT: “I am told yesterday McCabe felt the heat and went to try and save his last two days and even told some he would take people down with him if he was fired. So…let’s see what comes of this. I know this…a ton of agents…a ton…were watching this very closely.”

Investigative journalist Sara Carter confirmed McCabe’s threat on the March 16, 2018 episode of “The Ingraham Angle”:

CARTER: He lied. Plain and simple he lied. A lot of former FBI agents that I spoke to say I hope he’s fired. Is he going to get fired today? That’s all I kept hearing all day because they realize if they had done this, they would have been fired too.

And there’s a lot of ongoing investigations right now. This is not just about Michael Horowitz at the DOJ right now. Remember, there’s a prosecutor looking into the unmasking, the FISA abuse that has been taking place with Carter Page in particular. So, we have a number of investigations and McCabe is worried. He’s said over and over again, if I go down, I’m taking everybody else with me.

McCabe was at the heart of all the criminal activity and knows where the bodies are buried. His silence until now may be traced to the fact that to date no one has actually been held accountable. An easy indictment of his boss, book tour veteran James Comey, was bypassed and newly minted CNN analyst McCabe, filling the chair vacated by creepy porn lawyer Michael Avenatti, got to join his fellow liar and leaker, John Brennan, at the poster child for fake news.

“Lack of candor” about leaking to the press is the least of McCabe’s worries. McCabe is a signatory to at least one of the FISA applications requesting surveillance of American citizens, namely Team Trump. His signature was his affirmation that the information in it, based largely on the Steele dossier paid for by Team Hillary and the DNC and compiled from Russian sources by a British agent, was accurate and verified. The FISA warrant he signed was a fraud committed on the court.

The Steele dossier, despite McCabe’s prior obfuscations, was acquired illegally. Money was laundered through a law firm to a dirt-gathering opposition research firm, Fusion GPS, to a foreign agent, Christopher Steele, to Russian sources making most of the stuff up. The fact that the transaction went through multiple hands does not make it any more legal. It just makes the coming indictment longer.

McCabe, the man he worked for, James Comey, and the people who worked under McCabe, such as Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, then took this fruit of foreign interference in our election and used it to commit a fraud upon the FISA court to trigger the illegal surveillance of one political campaign by another with the aid of co-conspirators at the DoJ and FBI.

That McCabe himself was a key architect of this coup is found in the texts of FBI Agent Peter Strozk, who speaks of the plan hatched in “Andy’s office” to stop Trump at all costs, with this end justifying any and all means:

Out of all the damning, politically charged anti-Trump text messages released, one text from Strzok to (Lisa) Page on August 15, 2016, raised the most suspicion. It referred to a conversation and a meeting that had just taken place in “Andy’s” (widely believed to be Deputy FBI Dir. Andrew McCabe’s) office. According to Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), Strzok had texted this: “I want to believe the path you threw out for consideration in Andy’s office [break]… that there’s no way he gets elected. I want to believe that… But I’m afraid we can’t take that risk… We have to do something about it.”

In another text, Page said: “maybe you’re meant to stay where you are because you’re meant to protect the country from that menace.” Strzok replied: “I can protect our country at many levels, not sure if that helps.”

“This goes to intent,” Jordan said. “We can’t take the risk that the people of this great country might elect Donald Trump. We can’t take this risk. This is Peter Strzok, head of counterintelligence at the FBI. This is Peter Strzok, who I think had a hand in that dossier that was all dressed up and taken to the FISA court. He’s saying, ‘we can’t take the risk, we have to do something about it.'”

McCabe himself said under oath he could not verify the accuracy of virtually anything in the dossier and has acknowledged that without the “salacious and unverified” document, as James Comey once described it, no investigation of Team Trump would have occurred.

Then there’s the case of Michael Flynn.  The unmasking of Flynn in the Russia probe may indeed be retaliation against Flynn for perceived political sins, but not for what and by whom you might think if reports from investigative watchdog site Circa News are correct.

As I noted here on June 30, 2017, Michael Flynn and Andrew McCabe have a past that predates the Trump presidency, one that provides ample motivation for the perjury trap that McCabe and Comey set up after Flynn’s illegal unmasking. McCabe had a personal grudge against Flynn and the perjury trap was his revenge.

It explains why McCabe would entrap Flynn in a seemingly harmless interview about contacts with Flynn’s Russian counterparts, advising Flynn he didn’t need to bring a lawyer along to complicate things.

As Sara A. Carter and John Solomon of Circa News reported:

The FBI launched a criminal probe against former Trump National Security Adviser Michael Flynn two years after the retired Army general roiled the bureau’s leadership by intervening on behalf of a decorated counterterrorism agent who accused now-Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe and other top officials of sexual discrimination, according to documents and interviews.

Flynn’s intervention on behalf of Supervisory Special Agent Robyn Gritz was highly unusual, and included a letter in 2014 on his official Pentagon stationary, a public interview in 2015 supporting Gritz’s case and an offer to testify on her behalf. His offer put him as a hostile witness in a case against McCabe, who was soaring through the bureau’s leadership ranks.

The FBI sought to block Flynn’s support for the agent, asking a federal administrative law judge in May 2014 to keep Flynn and others from becoming a witness in her Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) case, memos obtained by Circa show. Two years later, the FBI opened its inquiry of Flynn…

McCabe eventually became the bureau’s No. 2 executive and emerged as a central player in the FBI’s Russia election tampering investigation, putting him in a position to impact the criminal inquiry against Flynn.

Three FBI employees told Circa they personally witnessed McCabe make disparaging remarks about Flynn before and during the time the retired Army general emerged as a figure in the Russia case.

Andrew McCabe should not be a national pundit on CNN calling for Trump’s impeachment. He should be preparing his legal defense against indictments that can’t come a moment too soon. And we should be prepared for McCabe carrying out his threat to bring them all down. We may yet find out what really happened in “Andy’s office”.

end

The left will do just about anything.  The New York Times has now been forced to issue a major correction to the Kavanaugh hit piece on Friday.

(zerohedge)

NYT Forced To Issue Major Correction To Kavanaugh Hit-Piece; Trump Says ‘They Should Be Sued!’

The New York Times was forced to issue a major correction to an article about alleged sexual misconduct by Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, after the two journalists who wrote it failed to include evidence from their own anti-Kavanaugh book which significantly undercuts their argument. 

 

NYT’s ​​Robin Pogrebin and Kate Kelly

While digging into an unsupported allegation by a woman named Deborah Ramirez that Kavanaugh waved his penis in her face during the 1983-1984 academic year at Yale, the Times‘s Robin Pogrebin and Kate Kelly claimed to have uncovered another alleged incident in which Kavanaugh’s penis was thrust into a female student’s hand.

A classmate, Max Stier, saw Mr. Kavanaugh with his pants down at a different drunken dorm party, where friends pushed his penis into the hand of a female student. Mr. Stier, who runs a nonprofit organization in Washington, notified senators and the F.B.I. about this account, but the F.B.I. did not investigate and Mr. Stier has declined to discuss it publicly. (We corroborated the story with two officials who have communicated with Mr. Stier.) –New York Times

The only problem – which Pogrebin and Kelly omitted from their NYT article, yet is contained in their new book The Education of Brett Kavanaugh: An Investigation.”– is that the woman has no memory of the incident.

Mollie

@MZHemingway

NYT Reporters’ essay about a supposed second Yale incident omitted their own book reporting that completely undercuts it: alleged victim denies any memory of it. Journalistically indefensible, though gullible additional reporters are spreading it of course.

After The Federalist‘s Mollie Hemmingway and others pointed this out, the Times issued a major correction to what the National Review‘s John McCormack called “one of the worst cases of journalistic malpractice in recent memory.” 

An earlier version of this article, which was adapted from a forthcoming book, did not include one element of the book’s account regarding an assertion by a Yale classmate that friends of Brett Kavanaugh pushed his penis into the hand of a female student at a drunken dorm party. The book reports that the female student declined to be interviewed and friends say that she does not recall the incident. That information has been added to the article. -NYT

President Trump on Monday had Kavanaugh’s back in a series of tweets:

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

“The New York Times walks back report on Kavanaugh assault claim.” @foxandfriends The one who is actually being assaulted is Justice Kavanaugh – Assaulted by lies and Fake News! This is all about the LameStream Media working with their partner, the Dems.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

“What’s happening to Justice Kavanaugh is a disgrace. This guy is not a good man, he is a great man. He has to go to his church with his family while these terrible reports are being written about him, a disgrace!” Dan Bongino @foxandfriends

Trump has also suggested that Kavanaugh should sue the times

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Just Out: “Kavanaugh accuser doesn’t recall incident.” @foxandfriends DO YOU BELIEVE WHAT THESE HORRIBLE PEOPLE WILL DO OR SAY. They are looking to destroy, and influence his opinions – but played the game badly. They should be sued!

Meanwhile, the office of Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) – who was mentioned in the article, tweeted several items of note to address the original claims by Ramirez:

1. Senate Judiciary staff “proactively contacted Ms. Ramirez’ lawyers soon after the New Yorker story broke.”

2. “Despite 7 attempts by staff, Ms. Ramirez’ lawyers declined to provide documentary evidence referenced in the article/witness accounts to support the claims. They also declined invitations for Ms. Ramirez to speak with committee investigators or to provide a written statement”

3. Nonetheless, our investigators spoke to and reviewed material from several Yale classmates of Ms. Ramirez and Justice Kavanaugh in order to assess the claim. You can read the committee’s 414-page investigative summary here: http://bit.ly/30nwLKG

4. The committee’s review found no verifiable evidence to support the claims. The @nytimes’ own reporting at the time noted that it couldn’t find anyone with firsthand knowledge & that Ms. Ramirez told friends she couldn’t be sure Kavanaugh was involved:

Sen. Grassley Press

@GrassleyPress

4. The committee’s review found no verifiable evidence to support the claims. The @nytimes‘ own reporting at the time noted that it couldn’t find anyone with firsthand knowledge & that Ms. Ramirez told friends she couldn’t be sure Kavanaugh was involved: https://nyti.ms/2puvYrc

5. Ultimately, Ms. Ramirez’ team agreed only to contact the FBI with the claims. She was reportedly interviewed by the FBI during its supplemental background investigation. More on those background investigations here:

Sen. Grassley Press

@GrassleyPress

5. Ultimately, Ms. Ramirez’ team agreed only to contact the FBI with the claims. She was reportedly interviewed by the FBI during its supplemental background investigation.
More on those background investigations here:http://bit.ly/2I9muvj

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

The King Report September 16, 2019 Issue 6092                                                                                Independent View of the News

ESZs rallied steadily from their opening on Thursday night until they surged from 5:00 ET until 6:00 ET on this: China to exempt U.S. pork, soybeans from additional tariffs: Xinhua

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-tariffs-idUSKCN1VY0TX

A Pork Meme in China Shows Why Officials Worry About Soaring Prices

Pork prices surged 46.7% in August from a year earlier

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-10/china-pork-meme-shows-why-soaring-prices-have-officials-worried

ESZs then fell from their high of 3025.75 to 3013.00 by the NYSE open.  Of course, traders bought the opening dip in the US.  The ensuing really ended by 9:50 ET.  Sellers took control and ESZs fell into negative territory by 10:10 ET.  Minutes later ESZs rallied sharply.  But the rally lasted only an hour; ESZs then declined into the European close.

Every rally attempt thereafter failed.  ESZs and stocks made new session lows during the final hour of trading.  ESZs and stocks bottomed at 15:15 ET.  The usual late ESZ manipulation was abetted by traders that get long late on the Friday prior to expiry week for the expected expiry rally.

Unfortunately for the late-Friday buyers, selling appeared during the final ten minutes of trading.

The DJTA and Russell 2000, the indices that have been the worst performers over the past several months, were the best performers on Friday.  This is rotational/value buying.

A drag on US stocks was Goldman’s target price reduction for Apple to $165 from $186.  Goldman believes that Apple’s TV+ trial will impair earnings.

Goldman Sachs just dramatically cut its outlook for Apple, predicts 26% downside

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/13/goldman-sachs-just-dramatically-cut-its-outlook-for-apple-predicts-26percent-downside.html

US August Retail Sales increased an unexpectedly strong +0.4% m/m on a 1.8% jump in auto sales.  Ex-Autos sales were unchanged; +0.1% was expected.  Ex-Autos & Gas sales rose 0.1%; 0.2% was expected.  Gas station sales declined 0.9% due to a 3.5% drop in gasoline prices.  Non-store sales increased 1.6%.  July Non-Store Retail sales were revised significantly lower from a 2.8% m/m surge due to Amazon Day to +1.7%.  Restaurant sales declined 1.2%.  Furniture sales dropped 0.5%.  Food & Beverage fell 0.2%.

U.S. Retail Sales Increase More Than Forecast on Autos, Web

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-13/sales-at-u-s-retailers-rise-more-than-forecast-on-autos-web

With the Street, investors and traders loaded up with debt from the US Treasury and corporations, the strong retail sales number induced selling in debt.  The US 30-year dropped over 2 points.

Who Can Go Lower? Japan Considers Deeper Negative Rates after ECB Cut

The Bank of Japan is starting to think about easing options in more detail

    The Bank of Japan’s policy board is leaning toward keeping policy steady at its own meeting next Wednesday and Thursday because the domestic economy looks relatively solid and the markets are stable, said the people familiar with the bank’s thinking.

    The central bank also wants to see the impact of a sales tax increase, which will be introduced Oct. 1, and the results of its quarterly corporate sentiment survey, released the same day. The policy board meets again in late October…

https://www.wsj.com/articles/who-can-go-lower-japan-considers-deeper-negative-rates-after-ecb-cut-11568370219?mod=e2tweu

@dlacalle_IA: It is not a great idea to destroy banks’ profitability with negative rates when their assets are 3x bigger than your GDP. Just sayin

BLS: U.S. import prices decreased 0.5 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after rising 0.1 percent the previous month. The August decline was driven by a drop in fuel prices; prices for nonfuel goods were unchanged. Prices for U.S. exports fell 0.6 percent in August following a 0.2-percent increase in July… All Imports Excluding Fuel: Prices for nonfuel imports were unchanged for the second consecutive month in August following 0.3-percent decreases in both June and May…

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.nr0.htm

The cost of Trump’s tariffs has fallen ‘entirely’ on US businesses and households: Goldman

[Where’s the proof, Goldie?  Are you doing a Draghi?]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/12/goldman-trump-tariff-costs-fall-entirely-on-us-businesses-households.html

Signs of ‘Pure Froth’ Emerging in Credit Markets, Cantor Says

Companies sold around $13 billion of junk bonds this week, the most in more than two years…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-13/cantor-s-cecchini-warns-of-pure-froth-signs-in-credit-markets

United Auto Workers (UAW) says its members will strike at 11:59 PM Sunday, Sept. 15

[First UAW Strike since 2007 top]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/industrials/united-auto-workers-union-gm-strike

Johnson set to defy law designed to stop him from forcing the U.K. out of the EU with no deal

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-14/johnson-set-to-defy-ban-on-no-deal-brexit-and-fight-on-in-court

Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half after Drones Strike Aramco Site

  • U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo blames Iran for Saudi attack

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-14/saudi-aramco-contain-fires-at-facilities-attacked-by-drones

Drone Attack on Saudi Oil Field Seen as ‘Pearl Harbor’ Moment

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-15/drone-attack-on-saudi-oil-field-seen-as-pearl-harbor-moment

Sen. @LindseyGrahamSC: Iranian supported Houthi rebels who attacked Saudi oil refineries is yet another example of how Iran is wreaking havoc in the Middle East. The Iranian regime is not interested in peace – they’re pursuing nuclear weapons and regional dominance.

@realDonaldTrump: Based on the attack on Saudi Arabia… I have authorized the release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, if needed, in a to-be-determined amount sufficient to keep the markets well-supplied. I have also informed all appropriate agencies to expedite approvals of the oil pipelines currently in the permitting process in Texas and various other States.

Today – Brent crude oil jumped 19% early last night, the biggest increase since the Gulf war began in 1991.  Brent regained about ¾ of its loss after Trump said he would release crude oil from the US SPR if needed.  Brent resumed its decline after this from @realDonaldTrump: Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!

No one yet knows what will occur next in the Gulf.  Any escalation in the conflict will be bad for stocks – and most of the trading world is long stocks. Brent crude oil jumped 19% early last night, the biggest increase since the Gulf war began in 1991.

Traders want to buy dips this week for option and futures’ expiration and the expected Fed rate cut on Wednesday. Plus, the BoJ meets on Wednesday and Thursday.  However, the situation between Saudi Arabia and Iran mandates caution, at the least.  That being said, too many traders: 1) Are conditioned to buy any dips; and 2) too many traders and investors have little fear of the downside, no matter the news.

The action in ESZs last night evinces our above opine.  ESZs opened at 2987.  Traders not only bought the opening Sunday night dip, they aggressive pushed ESZs to 3000 within 40 minutes.  Sellers reappeared and ESZs fell to 2983.50 at 20:25 ET.

Foundation of Defense Democracies’ @mdubowitz: Given @realDonaldTrump’s silence on the attack by regime in Iran on Saudi oil facilities (apart from his prudent SPR release announcement), I can only surmise that a U.S. military response is in the works.

The S&P 500 Index had an Inside day on Friday.  Traders will be sensitive to the index’s high (3017.33) and low (3002.90).  The inordinate number of Inside Days and Outside Days is due to the spasmodic moves and gaps from DJT tweets and impact news.  After the surge buying or frenzied selling, the market tends to consolidate – especially after news that is largely hope, hype and hokey.

The S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 2950; 100-day MA: 2917; 150-day MA: 2886; 200-day MA: 2819

The DJIA 50-day MA: 26,601; 100-day MA: 26,329; 150-day MA: 26,199; 200-day MA: 25,710

S&P 500 Index support: 3002.92, 2997, 2985-90, 2972, 2955-60, 2940-45, 2930, 2922, 2914, 2900, 2880

Resistance: 3017-20, 3027, 3040, 3050

Expected economic data: Sept Empire Mfg 4.0

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames

Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 2502.93 triggers a sell signal

Weekly: Trender is positive;MACD is negative – a close below 2816.78 triggers a sell signal

Daily: Trender andMACD are positive -a close below 2909.13 triggers a sell signal

Hourly: Trender is positive;MACD is negative – a close below 2997.52 triggers a sell signal

On Thursday night, Trump self-deprecatingly admitted at the Congressional Institute: “The light is no good I always look orange.”

Justice Department IG submits draft report on alleged FISA abuses to AG Barr, source tell Fox

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/doj-inspector-general-submits-report-on-alleged-fisa-abuses-to-attorney-general

@paulsperry_: Steele accomplice Jonathan Winer used personal email to conduct State Department business on at least 27 occasions before the 2016 election, shielding his communications (including w Steele & Simpson) from government record-keeping & FOIA requests [Grassley wants the IG to explain why he did not investigate or issue a report of this possible crime.]  https://grassley.senate.gov/sites/default/

While MSM elites tried to sell the notion that Biden did okay in the Dem debate on Thursday night, the reality is far different.

WaPo: For most of the night, Biden weathers a volley of attacks

https://beta.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-delivers-the-debate-performance-he-needed-despite-occasional-missteps/2019/09/12/824e0b30-d55b-11e9-9610-fb56c5522e1c_story.html

@nypost: Today’s front page: Joe Biden stands out for all the wrong reasons at third Democratic debate – Play the radio. Make sure the television — excuse me, make sure you have the record player on at night, the phone … make sure that kids hear words, a kid coming from a very poor school, a very poor background will hear 4 million words fewer spoken by the time they get there,” the former vice president, 76, babbled at one point…   https://trib.al/RWpwWI1

Biden’s “Record Player” Moment in Response to Slavery Question Stirs Outrage

He began by rambling somewhat incoherently about poor schools, parents, social workers and even gave advice to put on the “record player”.  As Time editor Anand Giridharadas observed, “It ended in a sermon implying that black parents don’t know how to raise their own children. This cannot go on.”…

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bidens-record-player-moment-response-slavery-question-stirs-outrage

Joe Biden asserted: “Nobody should be in jail for a non-violent crime.”

Joe Biden struggled to keep his teeth [dentures] in his mouth during the Democratic debate https://trib.al/AQEaENT

Biden forgot Peter Buttigieg’s name, saying, “I admire my friend… (Joe points) that guy over there.”

Biden Promises to Release Medical Records amid Mounting Health Concerns – amid mounting concerns over his general state of health…

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/09/14/biden-promises-to-release-medical-records-amid-mounting-health-concerns/

In debate, Democrats steer clear of economy – The candidates simply didn’t talk about it. (Nor did the ABC News moderators ask.) The word “recession” was uttered just once in the entire debate. (By Julián Castro, who noted the poll’s finding of recession fears.) Nor was the word “unemployment” ever spoken. Nor was there a discussion of job creation. Nor was there much of a discussion of wages…

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/in-debate-democrats-steer-clear-of-economy

@paulsperry_: OK, imagine you are Bill and Hillary watching tonight’s $#*tshow of a Democrat presidential debate, especially taking note of frontrunner Biden’s face plant. Now look at the Nov. 1 filing deadline for Iowa. Now imagine you have the ego of Hillary Clinton…

Kamala Harris: ‘I am a gun owner’ for personal protection

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/438514-kamala-harris-i-am-a-gun-owner-for-personal-protection

@RyanGirdusky: Harvard Harris poll: 72% of Hispanics support Merit-Based immigration

end

Let’s close out today’s commentary with this great interview of Kevin Shipp on the swamp.  Yo do not want to miss this one

(courtesy Greg Hunter/USAWatchdog)

Obama Ordered FBI & CIA to Spy on Trump – Kevin Shipp (Pt #1)

By Greg Hunter On September 15, 2019

Click here for Part #2)

Former Assistant FBI Director Andrew McCabe looks like he is going to be charged for his role in the Trump Russia hoax to try to remove a duly elected President from office. Former CIA Officer Kevin Shipp, who is an expert on counter-intelligence, says McCabe is going roll over on his co-conspirators and talk if the DOJ cuts him a deal. Shipp explains, “Yes, I do think he will talk, absolutely. It’s either that or be imprisoned with Billy Bob for the next 15 or 20 years. The motivation is great for him to talk. . . . This is one of their most outrageous things the Shadow Government and the Deep State has done.   They ran a counter-intelligence espionage operation, and that was their excuse to open an investigation. . . . It is clear to me that spying on Trump was ordered by Obama. It had to be, no doubt about it. He gets a Presidential brief on what the FBI, CIA, NSA are doing every single day. The FBI spied on the Trump campaign with an unprecedented domestic spy operation, and that is rocking this country.”

Shipp points out that what happened with President Trump is a first in U.S. history. Shipp says, “This is huge that they had a domestic spying program involving CIA and FBI informants targeting a Presidential candidate and then the actual President himself. This has never happened before, and I am hoping it will never happen again. This must come out. It has to come out if we are going to retain our democracy and our constitutional republic. These people have got to be exposed, they have got to be indicted, and they have to be charged. If they are not, it’s pretty much over for our justice system.

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with former CIA Officer and whistleblower
Kevin Shipp, author of the top-selling book about the Deep State called “From the Company of Shadows.”

( To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here ) (Update:  After a day with out monetization, which equals more than 30,000 views, You Tube has decided to now give monetization to this video.  I can’t get back the lost revenue, but this video will make some money going forward!!  Thank you, YouTube.)

-END-

Well that is all for today

I will see you Tuesday night.

 

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