SEPT 17//GOLD UP $1.50 TO $1505.50//SILVER HAS A GOOD DAY UP 14 CENTS TO $18.08//WE AGAIN HAVE QUEUE JUMPING FOR PHYSICAL METALS AT BOTH THE GOLD COMEX AND SILVER COMEX//THE USA NOW PINPOINTS IRAN AS THE INSTIGATOR IN THAT MISSILE ATTACK ON SATURDAY//USA REPO MARKET FROZE DUE TO LACK OF COLLATERAL//REPO RATE RISES ABOVE 10%//

GOLD:$1505.50 UP 1.50 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$18.08 UP 14 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1501.00

 

silver:  $18.01

 

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 1/6

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,503.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/16/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 09/18/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
661 C JP MORGAN 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 2 3
905 C ADM 4
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 6 6
MONTH TO DATE: 1,730

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT CONTRACT: 6 NOTICE(S) FOR 600 OZ (0.0186 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1730 NOTICES FOR 173000 OZ  (5.3810 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR SEPT

 

 

147 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 735,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 8344 for   41,720,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10,169 DOWN 85 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10251 UP 3

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE  SIZED 1725 CONTRACTS FROM 216,366 DOWN TO 214,641 DESPITE THE HUGE 41 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING TODAY.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

SEPT , 0 FOR DEC. 1604, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1604 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1604 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1604 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 8.02 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 41 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

42.560   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

WE AGAIN HAD  HUGE COVERING OF BANKER SHORTS  AT THE SILVER COMEX YESTERDAY AS NO DOUBT OUR FRIENDS WERE SCARED OF THE GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE THEY WERE FACING. THE 7 CONSECUTIVE THUMPING  OF SILVER ENDED.

 

 

THE LIQUIDATION OF COMEX OI OF SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED AND WE ARE NOW WELL INTO  THE ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADERS GOLD OPEN INTEREST

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT:

23,020 CONTRACTS (FOR 11 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 23,020 CONTRACTS) OR 115.10 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2092 CONTRACTS OR 10.46 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  115.10 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 16.42% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1664.72   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1725 DESPITE THE 41 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1604 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE LOST A SMALL  SIZED: 121 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1604 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1741  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 41 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.94 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.071 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 153% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 147 NOTICE(S) FOR 735,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 42.560 MILLION OZ//  
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 3377 CONTRACTS, TO 625,007 ACCOMPANYING THE  $11.75 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// /

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7602 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  4483 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 625,218,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7860 CONTRACTS: 3377 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 4483 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 7860 CONTRACTS OR 786,000OZ OR 24.44 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $11.75 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT HUGE GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GOOD GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 24.44  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER TRYING TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE WITH NOT MUCH SUCCESS. AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 24.44  TONNES!!!!!!. OUR BANKER FRIENDS TRIED IN VAIN TO COVER THEIR SHORTS TODAY BUT TO NO AVAIL. AS IN SILVER THEY WERE FRIGHTENED BY THE GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE BUT WERE BASICALLY HAPLESS IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 76,407 CONTRACTS OR 7,640,700 oz OR 237.65 TONNES (11 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 6946 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 237.65 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 237.65/3550 x 100% TONNES =6.69% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4389.26  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3377 DESPITE THE STRONG  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($11.75)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 4483 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 4483 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A GOOD  SIZED GAIN OF 8071 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

4483 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 3377 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 24.44 TONNES). ..AND THIS GOOD INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $11.75 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  6 notice(s) filed upon for 600 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

 

WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1725 CONTRACTS from 216,199 DOWN TO 214,641 AND FURTHER FROM A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR SEPT. 0; FOR DEC  1604:  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1604 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 1725  CONTRACTS TO THE 1604 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 121 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 0.605 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ// AND FINALLY SEPT  2019: 42.560 MILLION OZ//

 

 

 

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 41 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1604 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 52.64 POINTS OR 1.74%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 334.31 POINTS OR 1.23%   /The Nikkei closed UP 13.03 POINTS OR 0.06%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .29%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0965 /Oil UP TO 61.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and 67.85 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0965 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0913 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Italy

Former Prime Minister Renzi has decided to leave his Democrat party and start a new party.  He is a centrist but his party starting leaning far to the left.  His new party will go back to his roots of being centrist.  The Italian bonds tumbled on this news because of more instability

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

a)Michael Every has a keen mind and we must pay attention to him.  He comments on what the threat of a Middle East war means with respect to the Fed’s interest rate decision..he is now leaning to a cut in rates and long term bond yields will fall. He also comments on the Brexit affair and sees that Bo Jo is gaining in popularity

(zerohedge)

b)Saudi Arabia/Russia/USA

Putin, the opportunist offers the Saudis a fix on how to prevent another attack from Iranian missiles: purchase of the S 400 defense shield but that would surely get the USA angry
(zerohedge)

c)Iran/USA

The uSA now issues the report which shows that the Aramco attack was launched from inside Iran
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

India/Pakistan

This does not look good: India’s Minister says Pakistan is about to lose Pakistani occupied Kashmir

(zeorhedge)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)China Gold, state owned operation of the Chinese government is now hunting for deals in gold equal to the $2 billion mark

(Bloomberg/GATA)

ii)Interesting:  JPMorgan learned of spoofing as they inherited the assets including the huge short position of silver from Bear Stearns

(Bloomberg/GATA)

 

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

The manufacturing data today was a little better than last month but not enough to overturn its recession label

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)We highlight to you the plight of the truckers.  Mac Slavo gives us a good insight as to what happens if truckers stopped working all together:  grocery stores would run out of food in 3 days

(Mac Slavo.SHFTPlan.com)

b)Michael Snyder weighs in on the hit of the Saudi oil facilities in Riyadh.  The attack came from the North and  West of Riyadh and due to the sophistication of the hits ,most likely it came from Iraq where Iranian  Shiites are stationed.  Documentation already exists that Iran has sent over to Iraq missiles capable of striking Riyadh.

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

c)We pointed this out to you yesterday and the situation is getting worse. Now the rep market is freezing over due to lack of liquidity.  The only way out of this s a huge QE

(zerohedge)

d)Whether it is due to lack of liquidity or the oil shock or whatever, the Fed has lost control of its rates again.  The only way to bring them into equilibrium is more QE(zerohedge)

e)Another of our  darling USA companies showing trouble.  The ill fated We Work bonds are now crashing

(zerohedge)

f)Fed-Ex is a terrific bellwether for global growth. After the bell its shares tumbled after they slashed outlook..they blamed the trade war.(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Trump is furious as the New York Times and demands the resignation of all of those involved in the latest Kavanaugh smear story/Russian Witch Hunt Hoax

(zerohedge)

b)The Kavanaugh  smear seems to unravel as the original accuser’s witness now doubts the story in its entirety

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 3377 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 625,007 ACCOMPANYING THE GAIN OF $11.75 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4483 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR SEPT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 4483   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  4483 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 7860 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 4483 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 3377 COMEX CONTRACTS

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD BUT COULD NOT CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. WE DID HAVE SOME BANKER SHORTCOVERING BUT TO NO AVAIL AS THE DEMAND WAS EXTREMELY HIGH DUE TO THE GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE CREATED BY IRAN. 

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  7860 CONTRACTS OR 786,000 OZ OR 24.44 TONNES.

We are now in the NON  active contract month of SEPT and here the open interest stands at 29 CONTRACTS and  we GAINED 4 contracts.  We had 1 notices filed yesterday so we gained 5 contracts or an additional 500 oz of gold that will stand for delivery at the comex and the siege continues as the story for physical gold is the name of the game despite the criminal antics of the bankers.

The next active delivery month is October and here the OI FELL by 2015 contracts DOWN to 36,347. The month of November saw a gain of 10 contracts and thus the OI is rises to 170.  The very big December contract month saw its OI RISE by 4373 contracts UP to 466,164.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 6 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  600 OZ. (.0186 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1725 CONTRACTS FROM 217,690 DOWN TO 214,641 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A 41 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.  HERE WE HAVE 315 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 74 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 95 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE AGAIN GAINED A STRONG 21 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 105,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS THEY  LOOK FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS FOR REFUSING ‘TO TRAVEL’ TO LONDON

 

THE NEXT NON ACTIVE CONTRACT MONTH IS OCTOBER AND IT LOST 87 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1593. NOVEMBER SAW A SMALL GAIN OF 8 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 180. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI FALLS BY 1406 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 165,592.

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 147 notice(s) filed for 735,000 OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 326,096  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  368,424  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  SEPT/GOLD

SEPT 17/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
96.453 oz
Brinks
3 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
6 notice(s)
 600 OZ
(0.0186 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
23 contracts
(2300 oz)
.0715 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1730 notices
173,000 OZ
5.3810 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else:  0

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ no  amount  arrived   today

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

i) Out of Brinks;  96.453 oz

3 kilobars

 

total gold withdrawals; 96.453  oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today
FOR THE SEPT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 6 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1730) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT. (29 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (6 x 100 oz per contract) equals 175,300 OZ OR 5.4525 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of SEPT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1730 x 100 oz)  + (29)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (6 x 100 oz )which equals 175,300 oz standing OR 5.4525 TONNES in this  active delivery month of SEPT.

 

We GAINED 5 contracts or an additional 500 oz will seek metal on this side of the pond instead of morphing over to London.  The gold comex is now under siege for any remaining physical metal.

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 27.153  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING //AUGUST AND 5.4525 TONNES IN SEPT.//

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT AS WELL AS SEPT SO FAR, AND THUS I WILL ADD THE 27.153 TONNES TO THE 5.4525 TONNES (EQUALS 32.606 TONNES) AGAINST THE 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  736,702.381 oz or  22.91 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,098,442.861 oz 251.89 tonnes

IN THE LAST 35 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
SEPT 17 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 783,746.310 oz
HBBC
LOOMIS
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,199,415.478 oz
CNT
BRINKS
No of oz served today (contracts)
147
CONTRACT(S)
(735,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
168 contracts
 840,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  8344 contracts

41,720,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into CNT: 599,877.248 oz

iii) into Brinks: 599,538.230 oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  1,199,415.478  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of HSBC: 123,313.460

ii) Out of Loomis: 60,058.910 oz

 

ii) Out of Scotia: 600,378.870 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 783,746.310  oz

 

we had 2 adjustments :

i) Out of CNT: 548,478.790 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of CNT and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

ii) Out of Brinks: an outright removal of 1,249,070.080 oz from the customer account of Brinks

 

total dealer silver:  87.928 million

total dealer + customer silver:  315.964 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER 2019. contract month is represented by 147 contract(s) FOR 735,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 8344 x 5,000 oz = 41,720,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (315) and the number of notices served upon today 147 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2019 contract month: 8344 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (315)- number of notices served upon today (147)x 5000 oz equals 42,560,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month. 

We gained another strong 21 contracts or a huge 105,000 additional oz of silver will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER AND DESPITE THESE PAST MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER AND ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH LIMITED SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 147 notice(s) filed for 735,000 OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  82,310 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 112,213 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 112,213 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 561 million  OZ 80.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.57% ((SEPT 17/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.02% to NAV (SEPT 17/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.57%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.16 TRADING 14.67/DISCOUNT 3.21

 

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 16/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A BIG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 12//WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A HUGE 7.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.15 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: I)A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD (LATE YESTERDAY EVENING) AND 2) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES LATE THIS AFTERNOON./INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.17 TONNES

AUGUST 20//WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WE GOT BACK 7.63 TONNES OUT OF 11.11 TONNES LOST ON WEDNESDAY( A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

 

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

 

 

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SEPT 17/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 874.51 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 665 TRADING DAYS: 60.87 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 565- TRADING DAYS: A NET 105.78 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.899 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION PAPER OZ OF SILVER///INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.425 MILLION PAPER OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.179 MILLION OZ../

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 60 CENTS TODAY: A RATHER TIMID CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 842,000 PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 386.604 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.696 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20.WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 16/: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 15/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 17/2019:

 

 

Inventory 376.502 MILLION OZ

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.11/ and libor 6 month duration 2.08

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .03

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.08%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.07

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.01

gold lending rates negative all the way to one year

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Central Bank Gold Buying Is “Sustainable and Indeed May Accelerate”

Source: World Gold Council

◆ Why central banks including China and Russia will keep buying gold due to concerns about the outlook for currencies, including the dollar and the euro, Mark O’Byrne, Research Director of GoldCore told Marketwatch

◆ While the gold tonnage demand from central banks in recent months has been significant and near records, gold remains a tiny fraction of most central banks’ massive foreign-exchange reserves,” O’Byrne says, adding that the trend is “sustainable and indeed may accelerate”

◆ “Price is not the determining factor in central bank buying—rather, [the banks] are more likely being guided to secure an allocation of a percentage of their overall foreign-exchange reserves in gold bullion,” says O’Byrne. The central bank diversification and hedging are likely to support gold at these levels and could be a driver of higher prices in the coming months, he says

◆ “The risk of the trade war descending into a currency war may also be feeding central bank diversification into gold”

Read the full article on Barron’s and Marketwatch

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold prices hold steady ahead of Fed verdict

Gold settles at a more than a 1-week high as historic oil outage rattles investor nerves

$1,500 is the new floor for gold prices, says Kinross CEO

Gold & silver rally as investors seek safe havens amid global uncertainty

Expectations suddenly are rising that the Fed might not cut interest rates this week

Trump says he’s in no rush to respond to the attacks on Saudi oil facilities

Trump says U.S. reaches trade deals with Japan, no vote needed

China Gold are looking for “acquisition opportunities quite aggressively”


Gold Prices (LBMA – USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)

16-Sep-19 1502.05 1497.20, 1207.35 1203.30 & 1357.25 1359.46
13-Sep-19 1506.30 1503.10, 1209.41 1208.19 & 1356.88 1358.35
12-Sep-19 1502.95 1515.20, 1219.94 1227.46 & 1362.88 1373.53
11-Sep-19 1493.65 1490.65, 1208.21 1209.07 & 1354.74 1355.90
10-Sep-19 1494.60 1498.25, 1211.52 1211.34 & 1353.51 1357.11
09-Sep-19 1509.95 1509.20, 1223.81 1220.34 & 1368.62 1364.92
06-Sep-19 1504.95 1523.70, 1223.52 1237.09 & 1363.94 1378.49
05-Sep-19 1542.60 1529.10, 1257.06 1238.72 & 1397.44 1380.78
04-Sep-19 1538.80 1546.10, 1265.05 1269.97 & 1397.69 1403.86

Click here to listen to the latest GoldCore Podcast

Receive our free Daily or Weekly Updates by signing up here and click here to subscribe to GoldCore’s You Tube Channel

 

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

China Gold, state owned operation of the Chinese government is now hunting for deals in gold equal to the $2 billion mark

(Bloomberg/GATA)

China Gold is hunting for deals of as much as $2 billion

 Section: 

By Vinicy Chan
Bloomberg News
Monday, September 16, 2019

China Gold International Resources Corp., the overseas arm of state-owned China National Gold Group, is on the hunt for acquisitions to replenish its pipeline as deal-making in the sector heats up thanks to a jump in the metal’s price.

“We need more pipeline, especially in gold production,” Jerry Xie, executive vice president, said in an interview today on the sidelines of the Denver Gold Forum. “We’re looking for acquisition opportunities quite aggressively. We’re doing this on behalf of our parent company, not just for ourselves.”

… 

The miner, listed both in Canada and Hong Kong, is targeting companies with assets in operational stages that have ramp-up plans. The company is comfortable making purchases with a price at roughly $1 billion to $2 billion, Xie said.

The company is open to studying potential acquisitions of single-asset companies with mines near production, he said. It is also interested in possible asset sales that may come from Barrick Gold Corp. and Newmont Goldcorp Corp., which both have plans to divest after recent mega-mergers. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-16/china-gold-is-hunting…

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

Interesting:  JPMorgan learned of spoofing as they inherited the assets including the huge short position of silver from Bear Stearns

(Bloomberg/GATA)

 

JPMorgan inherited ‘spoof’ method from Bear Stearns and refined it, indictment says

 Section: 

A powerful vindication of silver market analyst and whistleblower Ted Butler, who long has said the racket began with JPMorganChase’s acquisition of Bear Stearns.

* * *

By Tom Schoenberg and David Voreacos
Bloomberg News
Monday, September 16, 2019

When JPMorgan Chase & Co. took over Bear Stearns more than a decade ago, it got two traders with a new trick.

Their strategy: Use multiple fake orders to manipulate the prices of precious metals futures. The maneuver, adopted by the traders’ new colleagues at JPMorgan, became part of a spoofing and rigging campaign so expansive that federal authorities have now likened it to a criminal enterprise operating inside the U.S.’ biggest bank.

In a criminal indictment unsealed today —

https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1202466/download

— U.S. prosecutors accused three JPMorgan traders of rigging futures trades in precious metals for nearly a decade, making millions of dollars for the bank at the expense of counterparties that included the bank’s own clients.

… 

The charges were the latest turn in a years-long investigation that has previously yielded guilty pleas from traders at several banks, including two from JPMorgan. Prosecutors said more than a dozen JPMorgan employees ultimately helped make manipulative “spoof” trades for the bank, in part by using the strategy their new colleagues brought in May 2008.

That pair, Gregg Smith and Christiaan Trunz, showed their new JPMorgan colleagues “a new style of layering multiple deceptive orders at different prices in rapid succession,” prosecutors wrote. The strategy made their market spoofing more difficult to execute and detect, prosecutors wrote in the indictment of Smith and two others. Trunz pleaded guilty last month and is cooperating with authorities.

The strategy was adopted by Michael Nowak, who was JPMorgan’s global head of precious metals trading when he was put on leave last month. …

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission also filed a lawsuit against Nowak and Smith today and settled a suit against Trunz. …

JPMorgan bought Bear Stearns in a marriage arranged by the U.S. Federal Reserve during the height of the financial crisis in 2008.

Already, people inside JPMorgan were using deceptive trading methods, prosecutors said. Their new colleagues brought new ones. In May, the same month the deal was completed, Smith executed the deceptive-layering technique, the indictment said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-16/precious-metals-trade…

JP Morgan Blames Bear Stearns For ‘Criminal Enterprise’ At Precious Metals Trading Desk

Now that prosecutors have blamed what they have described as a criminal organization operating inside JP Morgan, it appears the largest bank in the US by assets is resorting to an old strategy for sloughing off accusations of corporate fraud: Blaming it all on an acquisition.

According to Bloombergtwo traders who joined JPM’s precious metals trading desk after the takeover of Bear Stearns helped introduce the illegal manipulation strategy known as ‘spoofing’ to their peers on the desk, including the bank’s now-former head of the bank’s precious metals trading desk, Michael Nowak, who was one of three employees charged with participating in an organized fraud yesterday. Though prosecutors allege that some of the desk’s employees were already engaged in ‘deceptive practices’.

The two men who purportedly brought ‘spoofing’ to JP Morgan are Gregg Smith, one of the men arrested yesterday, and Christiaan Trunz, who joined the desk after JPM’s government-backed takeover of Bear Stearns. Trunz was famously quoted in yesterday’s indictment, including one exchange where he was telling a co-conspirator about fake orders being put out by Smith.

 

Prosecutors said that ultimately 12 JPM employees used the strategy during the years between 2008 and 2016 that are the primary focus of the investigation.

That pair, Gregg Smith and Christiaan Trunz, showed their new JPMorgan colleagues “a new style of layering multiple deceptive orders at different prices in rapid succession,” prosecutors said. The strategy made their market spoofing more difficult to execute and detect, prosecutors wrote in the indictment of Smith and two others. Trunz pleaded guilty last month and is cooperating with authorities.

The strategy was adopted by Michael Nowak, who was JPMorgan’s global head of precious metals trading when he was put on leave last month. Federal prosecutors charged Nowak, Smith and a third man, Christopher Jordan, of “conspiracy to conduct the affairs of an enterprise involved in interstate or foreign commerce through a pattern of racketeering activity” – language that sounds more like RICO charges.

On Monday, Jordan and Nowak appeared handcuffed in federal court in Newark, New Jersey, where US Magistrate Judge Michael Hammer released them on $250,000 bond. They could face up to 30 years in prison on the most serious charges. Meanwhile, Jordan was released to the custody of his parents pending being released this week to a residential alcohol treatment program (“Chris Jordan is innocent of these heavy-handed charges, and we intend to defend him vigorously,” his attorneys said. Nowak was ordered to receive mental health testing and treatment. The men were forbidden to have any contact with any other current or former employees of the JPM precious metals trading desk.

Earlier, Trunz, a former Georgetown lacrosse player, and the other former JPMorgan trader who admitted guilt said the manipulation was routine and sanctioned by higher ups on the desk.

“While at JPMorgan I was instructed by supervisors and more senior traders to trade in a certain fashion, namely to place orders that I intended to cancel before execution,” former trader John Edmonds said at a October 2018 hearing, after admitting to commodities fraud and conspiracy. Edmonds entered into a cooperation agreement with the CFTC in July.

Trunz told a federal judge in Manhattan last month that spoofing trades of precious metals was rampant at the bank and that he learned the technique from other traders at Bear Stearns and JPMorgan. Trunz, who entered his guilty plea on Aug. 20, said he manipulated futures markets for gold, silver, platinum and palladium from offices in New York, London and Singapore from 2007 to 2016.

Of course, the traders who are facing trial have reason to be optimistic. Prosecutors have failed to convict traders in the last two big securities fraud trials.

end

GATA) Ronan Manly: Indicted JPM metals desk chief is LBMA board member

Submitted by cpowell on 01:05PM ET Tuesday, September 17, 2019. Section: Daily Dispatches

9:05a ET Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star gold researcher Ronan Manly reports today that JPMorganChase, more of whose metals traders were indicted yesterday in the United States on charges of manipulating the metals markets, is a member of the London Bullion Market Association and that one of those traders, Michael Nowak, chief of the bank’s precious metals desk, is a member of the LBMA’s Board of Directors.

Manly adds that the LBMA’s code of conduct explicitly prohibits market manipulation. Manly doesn’t say if the LBMA code provides any particular penalties for violation, but it’s a fair guess that they include being winked and nodded at.

Manly’s report is headlined “LBMA Board Member & JP Morgan Managing Director Charged with Rigging Precious Metals” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/lbma- board-member-jp-morgan-managing-director-charged-with- rigging-precious-metals/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

 

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0965/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0913   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 52.64 POINTS OR 1.74%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 334.13 POINTS OR 1.23%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 13.03 POINTS OR 0.06%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 98.59/Euro FALLS TO 1.1020

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.15/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.14/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 61.77 and Brent: 67.85

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.49%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.89% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.26%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.38: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.50

3k Gold at $1500.95 silver at: 17.85   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 10/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.99

3m oil into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and 67 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.14 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9943 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0957 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.49%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.81% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.27%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7212..

Markets Slide As Traders Put Oil Crunch On Backburner, Turn To Fed

Global stocks and US equity futures dipped, with the E-mini back under 3,000 again, as attention turned to the Fed (and the slight possibility Powell may disappoint investors again)…

 

… while Brent shed some of its massive gains on Tuesday as the United States de-escalated concerns of an imminent war with Iran and also flagged the possible release of crude reserves.

 

Investors, desperate for more love from money printers, were unsure what to do ahead of tomorrow’ interest rate cut from the Fed, which is fully priced in by the market even if tiny doubt appears to have crept in with 5% odds of “no change” which would crash the markets, as well as the next round of U.S.-China trade talks on Thursday.

MSCI’s All-Country World Index was down 0.1% on the day.

European shares opened lower, with energy stocks giving up gains as crude prices eased. Europe’s broad STOXX 600 index dropped 0.2%, led by declines in banks and automakers shares, even though Germany showed clear green shoots, and signs of sentiment rebound after the ZEW Economic Sentiment surged to -22.5 from -44.1, smashing the Expected print of -37.0.

 

Earlier in Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.66%. Chinese shares fell 1.07%, while Hong Kong shares slumped 1.18% after China’s central bank disappointed investors when it refrained from lowering a key interest rate.

US stocks futures were flat to slightly lower, indicating subdued open on Wall Street later, with the S&P set to open below 3,000 once again.

All eyes were on oil however, which gave back only a bit of Monday’s record surge: Brent crude oil  fell 0.1% to $68.96 per barrel on Tuesday. On Monday, it surged as much as 14.6% for its biggest one-day percentage gain since at least 1988. In the US, West Texas Intermediate futures were down 0.87% to $62.25 per barrel following a 14.7% surge on Monday, the biggest one-day gain since December 2008.

Saudi Aramco now faces weeks or months before the majority of output is restored at the giant Abqaiq processing plant after the attack, adding a fresh headwind for the global economy. The developments in the Middle East are testing sentiment after a bullish start to the month for global equities and other riskier assets. Meanwhile, Iran won’t negotiate with the U.S. on any level, anywhere, the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader said.

“The key thing to think about is do we have an oil shock or a short-term disruption?” said Virginie Maisonneuve, chief investment officer at Eastspring Investments, in a Bloomberg TV interview. “You’re seeing this wait-and-see attitude, and that’s why the markets are quite nervous.”

Meanwhile, president Trump authorized the release of emergency crude stockpiles if needed, which could ease some upward pressure on crude futures. Trump said on Monday it looked like Iran was behind the attacks but stressed that he did not want to go to war, striking a slightly less bellicose tone than his initial reaction.

“Although Saudi Arabia’s spare capacity and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves could plug some of the lost output, where oil trades in the near term will be influenced by how long it takes for Saudi production to fully recover,” said Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM. “It is this concern over negative supply shocks amid geopolitical tensions which should keep oil prices buoyed in the short term.”

Middle-eastern events overshadowed investor concerns about the simmering trade war. American and Chinese working-level trade negotiators are set to resume talks in the next week, before a meeting of top officials in October. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said the U.S. and Japan have reached an initial trade accord over tariffs.

In other news, late on Monday Trump said that the United States has reached initial trade agreements with Japan, but traders are also focused on the U.S.-Sino trade war. “In the next week, positive developments on Brexit and/or Iran have the potential to move markets higher from here. It shows why staying strategically invested in equities is important,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “But with scope for central banks to disappoint and global growth continuing to slow, we see little reason to change our tactically more cautious stance.”

Deputy-level talks between the United States and China are scheduled to start in Washington on Thursday, paving the way for high-level talks next month aimed at resolving a bitter trade row that has dragged on for more than a year.

In rates, the recent blowout in interest rates continued to fade, as the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes fell slightly to 1.8292%, while the surge in overnight repo rates easedEuro zone government debt yields edged lower as geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the attack on Saudi underpinned a cautious tone in bond markets.

In currencies, the dollar gained versus all of G-10 peers as the Fed kicks-off its two-day monetary policy meeting and tensions in the Middle East fail to dictate market sentiment. Investors are focusing on reasons to fade any greenback weakness – ECB easing, a no-deal Brexit, dovish RBA minutes – and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1% and approaching a two week high, after forming a bullish outside day on Monday. Elsewhere, the pound slipped 0.2% to 1.2403, down a second day as PM Boris Johnson’s lawyers were set to defend his Brexit strategy in the U.K.’s highest court. The Euro was down 0.1% below 1.10, to 1.0992 as option-related bids above 1.1000 failed to absorb leveraged pressure. On the other side of the world, the Australian dollar led losses in G-10 with AUD/USD down 0.5% to 0.6831, lowest since Sept. 6. The Reserve Bank of Australia said wages growth appears to have stalled and the job market is set to moderate in its September minutes. AUD/USD was also sold by macro and leveraged funds due to the decline in Chinese stocks, according to Asia-based FX traders.

Elsewhere, Gold moves sideways, holding on to recent gains that saw the precious metal jump back above USD 1500/oz; though it has struggled to stay above this mark. Separately, the Indian Government may be considering a full exit from Hindustan Copper as according to reports.

Economic data include industrial production for August. FedEx is due to publish earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,997.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 389.01
  • MXAP down 0.4% to 159.03
  • MXAPJ down 0.7% to 510.32
  • Nikkei up 0.06% to 22,001.32
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,614.58
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.2% to 26,790.24
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.7% to 2,978.12
  • Sensex down 1.4% to 36,604.95
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,695.25
  • Kospi up 0.01% to 2,062.33
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to -0.486%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1021
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $69.21/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.7 bps to 0.504%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 0.254%
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $68.65/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,497.72
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.03% to 98.58

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • One of the key U.S. borrowing markets saw a massive surge Monday, a sign the Federal Reserve is having trouble controlling short-term interest rates.
  • American and Chinese senior trade negotiators are expected to resume negotiations in the next week and a half, with much work remaining to reach a comprehensive deal, U.S. Chamber of Commerce Chief Executive Officer Thomas Donohue said.
  • Swiss National Bank chief Thomas Jordan is out of the hot seat for now — perhaps until Brexit hits.
  • Gulf dollar bonds went into the weekend as investor darlings and came out as risky assets. Money managers poured into the Gulf region in the weeks running up to Saturday’s unprecedented attack on Saudi Arabia’s key oil facilities.
  • Saudi Aramco is growing less optimistic there will be a rapid recovery in oil production from the weekend’s attack and now faces weeks or months before the bulk of output is restored at its Abqaiq processing plant
  • Oil’s record-breaking advance paused as the market awaits clarity on how long it’ll take Saudi Arabia to restore output
  • President Donald Trump said his administration has reached an initial trade accord with Japan and he intends to enter into the agreement in coming weeks
  • Chinese working-level trade officials are scheduled to travel to the U.S. this week to prepare for a meeting of top negotiators in October, the Ministry of Commerce said
  • Boris Johnson will see his decision to suspend Parliament under scrutiny in the first of three days of hearings at the U.K.’s Supreme Court
  • In minutes of its Sept. 3 meeting, Reserve Bank of Australia said “the upward trend in wages growth appeared to have stalled” and forward-looking indicators suggested employment growth would moderate
  • Argentina’s central bank modified capital control rule to allow sovereign bond payments to be made abroad
  • Trump said he “probably” won’t travel to Pyongyang for the next round of nuclear talks with Kim Jong Un, but would be willing to visit the North Korean capital in the future

Asian equity markets were mixed/lower following a subdued lead from Wall St where the S&P 500 slipped back below the 3k milestone and the DJIA snapped an 8-day win streak after attacks on Saudi’s oil facilities, while participants continue to await the looming billow of central bank policy updates. ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) were lacklustre in which weakness in Australia’s mining and materials sectors overshadowed the continued rise in energy stocks as oil prices took a breather from the prior day’s record surge, while the Japanese benchmark lacked conviction amid a choppy currency and with SoftBank among the worst performers due to a delay of the WeWork IPO which the Co. and its affiliates hold about a 29% stake in. Hang Seng (-1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.7%) were the laggards after the PBoC refrained from open market operations and although it announced to lend CNY 200bln through its Medium-term Lending Facility, this was below the CNY 265bln maturing today and the rate was maintained at 3.3% to the disappointment of the increased speculations for a cut. Finally, 10yr JGBs initially gained to reclaim the 154.00 level amid safe-haven flows and with the BoJ also present in the market for JPY 760bln of JGBs in the belly to the shorter-end of the curve, although prices later reversed gains in conformity with the indecision seen across Japanese asset classes.

Top Asian News

  • Singapore Woos Banks in Battle of Asia’s Biggest Forex Hubs
  • South Korea Latest Asian Nation Hit by African Swine Fever
  • Jokowi Orders Crackdown on Arsonists: SE Asia Haze Update
  • China Stocks Fall, Yuan Weakens as Central Bank Holds Loan Rate

Major European indices are tentative following a mixed lead from the Asia Pacific Session, as the market awaits an update on the damages from the Saudis at 18.00 BST re. the weekend’s attacks, and ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, with major bourses little changed overall this morning. Energy sector (+1.1%) continues to outperform, as crude prices cling on to the recent outsized gains, which continues to weigh on airline names including EasyJet (-1.3%) and RyanAir (-2.5%). Meanwhile, some strength in the more defensive utilities (+0.6%), health care (+0.9%) and consumer staples (+0.8%) sectors is suggestive of a fragile risk tone, although the risk sensitive tech sector (+0.3%) is also in the green. Leading the laggards are Financials (-1.2%), with this week’s fall in yields and pronounced curve flattening failing to provide any support. In terms of stock specifics; Zalando (-9.1%) is the notable underperformer, after the Co. announced the placement of over 13mln new shares. Total (+1.7%) is deriving support not only from higher crude prices but also the news of a 30% output increase in one of its South Korean ethylene plants. AB InBev (+0.7%) is supported by news that the co. is looking to raise USD 4.8bln (according to a company statement) in the IPO of its AsiaPac unit in Hong Kong; although this is below the pre-market reports that they were seeking around USD 7bln. Finally, ThyssenKrupp (-0.8%) failed to garner support from reports that Advent International and Cinven & Abu Dhabi Investment Authority had teamed up to place a bid on the co.’s elevator unit, which could put them in competition with the likes of Kone (-0.3%).

Top European News

  • Boris Johnson’s Brexit Plan Goes to Court With EU Talks in Chaos
  • Balkan Leader Boosts Re-Election Bid With 500 Euro Wage Pledge
  • Sweden Unemployment Reaches 4-Year High in New Blow to Riksbank
  • EON Wins Conditional EU Approval to Take Over Innogy

In FX, SEK/AUD marked G10 underperformers and both undermined by Central Bank releases to varying degrees, while worrying data from Sweden has also undermined the Crown as unemployment jumped in August and total employment declined. Eur/Sek has rallied from around 10.6240 to 10.7150+ in wake of minutes from the Riksbank revealing deeper divisions on the repo rate path with Janssen unsure whether it is appropriate to maintain guidance for a hike around the turn of the year. Meanwhile, Aud/Usd has retreated further from recent peaks towards 0.6830 as the RBA remains ready to ease again to support growth and keep inflation on course to reach target, adding that it is reasonable to expect the OCR to be low for a lengthy period of time.

  • NZD/GBP/CHF – The Kiwi is also on the back foot and hovering around 0.6325 vs its US counterpart after a dip in Westpac’s Q3 consumer survey overnight, but holding up a bit better in Aud/Nzd cross terms within a 1.0827-1.0790 range ahead of NZ Q2 current account data and the latest GDT auction. Meanwhile, Sterling is struggling to survive a stringent test of 1.2400 and support just below at 1.2385 following a fruitless journey to Luxembourg by UK PM Johnson and pending the Supreme Court judgement on his suspension of parliament, and the Franc is trying to contain losses circa 0.9950/1.0950 against the Buck and Euro respectively in the run up to the Fed and SNB tomorrow and Thursday.
  • JPY/CAD – The Yen has lost a degree of its Saudi safe-haven premium, with Usd/Jpy firmer above the 108.00 level amidst reports that the US and Japan have agreed tentative trade deal terms, while the Loonie is unwinding some oil-inspired gains ahead of Canadian manufacturing sales, as Usd/Cad pivots 1.3250 compared to lows of just a few pips off 1.3200 at one stage yesterday.
  • EUR – The single currency has made a better fist of overcoming downside pressure at a big figure/psychological marker than the Pound, albeit with some assistance from a much more pronounced improvement in German ZEW economic sentiment than anticipated. Indeed, Eur/Usd has reclaimed 1.1000+ status after another probe below to 1.0990 (close to the 1.0985 pre-ECB base) even though the Dollar is firmer in general with the  DXY comfortably back above 98.500 within a 98.573-749 band ahead of US ip data and the aforementioned Fed on Wednesday. However, decent option expiries layered between 1.1025-30 and 1.1040-50 (1 bn each time) may cap further Euro recovery gains vs the Greenback.
  • RBA Minutes (Sept 3rd) reiterated the board would consider further policy easing if needed to support growth and inflation targets, while it is reasonable to expect extended period of low rates to achieve employment and inflation targets. Furthermore, minutes noted the Australian economy could sustain lower rates of unemployment and that there are further signs of a turnaround in the housing sector, although the turnover is still low and outlook for consumption growth is a key uncertainty.

In commodities, the crude complex consolidated on Tuesday morning, and holds on to the lion’s share of yesterday’s outsized gains which came on the combination of an uptick in geopolitical risk premia and supply shock after an attack left a significant portion of Saudi oil production offline. Brent Nov’ 19 futures, although well off yesterday’s extreme near USD 72/bbl highs, has lost the USD 68.0/bbl handle, while WTI Oct’ 19 futures range places it around the USD 62.0/bbl mark. The market now awaits an official update from the Saudis at 18.00/18:15 BST regarding the extent of the damage to the country’s oil producing infrastructure; mixed reports thus far, some suggested about 40% of the disrupted output has been restored and the remaining production could be back online as soon as month-end, but others were less optimistic and anticipate a return to full output could take months. In terms of commentary, US Energy Secretary Perry, when asked about tapping the US SPR, said that he is confident the markets are well supplied, and that the US will take a wait and see approach when it comes to its potential use. Russian Energy Minister Novak said there is still no information regarding the weekend’s Saudi Oil attacks and that the price spike following the attacks reflects uncertainty and risk. Meanwhile, as the dust settles in wake of the attack, evidence of supply disruptions continue to emerge; Saudi Aramco have reportedly delayed some oil loading grades by a number of days following and have asked some customers to accept different oil grades. Moreover, Indian State refiners are reportedly mulling switching crude oil grades to avoid supply disruptions from Saudi Aramco. Elsewhere, Gold moves sideways, holding on to recent gains that saw the precious metal jump back above USD 1500/oz; though it has struggled to stay above this mark. Separately, the Indian Government may be considering a full exit from Hindustan Copper as according to reports.

US Event Calendar

  • 9:15am: Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.2%; Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.2%, prior -0.4%
  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 66, prior 66
  • 4pm: Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior $99.1b
  • 4pm: Total Net TIC Flows, prior $1.7b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday was one of the most unexciting, exciting days for markets for a long time. After the huge initial moves in the Asian session for oil, things settled down into a relatively tight range in most markets through most of the Asian, European and US sessions. WTI closed up +12.82% at $61.88, which was the biggest one day move higher since February 2009, with the move taking WTI back up to its highest level since May. Similarly, Brent closed up +14.61% at $69.02, breaking higher towards the session close. The moves weren’t just confined to crude though with Gasoline also rallying +11.45%, while natural gas rose +2.79%. Overnight WTI (-1.41%) and Brent (-1.10%) are both erasing a small amount of yesterday’s gains.

It was no great surprise then that markets elsewhere were dictated by the oil moves with the broad-based move being a moderate risk-off (with the weak China data also a factor). In equity markets the magnitude of the moves were actually fairly minor outside of energy. The S&P 500 closed down -0.31% with a +3.29% rally for the energy sector helping to buffer the slide. The likes of Apache (+16.89%), Hess (+11.18%) and Marathon (+11.57%) were the big winners at a stock level with the move for Apache the biggest since 2008. The DOW (-0.52%) and NASDAQ (-0.28%) also closed lower along with the STOXX 600 (-0.58%), although again the STOXX Oil and Gas index was up +2.13%. Arguably one of the areas of markets most sensitive to oil is US HY credit where spreads at a broad index level finished +0.5bps wider, with energy spreads rallying -24bps to help offset the risk off. It was a similar trend in CDS where there were big moves tighter for the likes of higher beta Chesapeake and Whiting in particular. One credit which did struggle though was A-rated Saudi Aramco where the spread on the 2049s traded about +7.5bps wider.

The risk-off tone also helped fuel a bid for Gold (+0.67%) and Silver (+2.33%) while in FX the oil-sensitive Norwegian Krone (+0.27%) and Canadian Dollar (+0.33%) also benefited. As for rates, most DM markets did their best to reverse a small amount of last week’s selloff but were fairly stable after the initial move. In the end 10y Treasuries ended -4.9bps (down a further -2.1bps this morning) lower at 1.847% having touched as low as 1.810% intraday, while the 2s10s curve fell -0.9bps to 8.3bps (7.9bps this morning). In Europe Bunds rallied -3.3bps and BTPs -3.8bps.

Overnight we have some fresh trade headlines to throw into the mix with China’s Ministry of Commerce saying in a statement that Chinese working-level trade officials are scheduled to travel to the US this week to prepare for a meeting of top negotiators in October. The statement added that Liao Min, deputy director of the Office of the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs and vice finance minister, will lead a delegation to visit the US tomorrow for trade consultations. Separately, USTR Rober Lighthizer spoke with the US Chamber of Commerceyesterday post which the group’s CEO Thomas Donohue said that “there’s much more work” to be done on a trade deal with China while adding that Lighthizer indicated that there’s some movement on China buying US farm products and other issues but it’s “an extraordinary challenge” to get a complete deal. Donohue also said that Lighthizer said there are staff-level meetings between Chinese and U.S. negotiators on Friday, with senior negotiators to meet in the ensuing week or week and a half.

Continuing with trade, President Trump said late yesterday that his administration has reached an initial trade accord with Japan over tariffs and that he intends to enter into the agreement in the coming weeks. USTR Robert Lighthizer has said earlier that the limited trade deal will cover agriculture, industrial tariffs and digital trade. Trump didn’t provide details about what was in the initial deal and didn’t mention whether the limited deal will end his threat to slap tariffs on Japanese auto imports as part of the trade deal.

Asian markets are trading mixed this morning on all the above headlines with the Nikkei (-0.02%) trading largely flat while the Topix (+0.25%) is up as Japanese markets re-opened post a holiday. The Hang Seng (-1.01%), Shanghai Comp (-1.02%), CSI (-0.94%) and Shenzhen Comp (-1.38%) are all down while the kospi (+0.11%) is up. The onshore Chinese yuan is trading weak, down -0.30% to 7.0886, alongside most Asian EM Fx. The Hang Seng seems to be dragged down by the prospect of US sanctions as the city’s prominent local activist Joshua Wong is set to address US lawmakers today who are considering changes to special trade privileges for the financial hub. Ahead of the address, Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam said that “I uphold this principle of accountability, but at the moment it is all for us to see that Hong Kong is undergoing a very difficult situation, and sanctions or punishment are not going to help lift Hong Kong out of this very difficult situation.” Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are trading flattish (-0.06%).

In other overnight news, Bloomberg reported that Former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is leaving the Democratic Party to found his own movement but pledged continued support for Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte. The report also added that Renzi could announce his move as early as today while Italian news agency ANSA reported that in a telephone call to Conte last night, Renzi assured the premier that his move won’t threaten the newly formed administration.

Coming back to the oil shock, ourUS economists noted that barring a more substantial geopolitical flare-up that leads to a sharp tightening of financial conditions, this move in oil should have only modest effects on the US economy. Reflecting the tension this creates for the Fed’s dual mandate, the recent increase in oil prices, if sustained, could syphon about $12bn away from consumer spending on non-energy items and provide a meaningful lift to five-year, five-year breakeven inflation rates, but with little impact on core inflation. With the Fed worried about too-low inflation expectations and downside risks to the growth outlook, on balance these effects should reinforce the Fed’s already dovish bias. See more here . Looking at the Euro Area angle and its sensitivity to an oil price shock, Peter Sidorov (link here ) writes that a EUR 10 oil price move would add c. 0.25pp to inflation over the short term and reduce around 0.2pp from private consumption after one year.

Away from the oil story we did hear from the ECB’s Lane yesterday, where the most relevant takeaway was the reference “we also retained the so-called easing bias by stating our expectation to keep the key ECB interest rates “at present or lower” levels. We judge that, if needed, we can further lower the deposit facility rate and, with it, the overnight money market rate. As a result, there is no reason for the distribution of future short-term rate expectations to be skewed upwards.” This suggests that the ECB can cut more which is not necessarily something that Draghi indicated last week, although given the publicly expressed views of the hawks on the Governing Council such as Bundesbank President Weidmann, there would certainly be questions as to the degree of support for further ECB action.

As for the latest on Brexit, PM Johnson went to Luxembourg yesterday to meet European Commission President Juncker and Prime Minister Bettel. However, with mass protests and chaotic scenes the joint press conference between Johnson and Bettel was cancelled by the British after their request to hold it inside was turned down. One wag on Twitter suggested that if the British and Luxembourg governments can’t agree on how to hold a press conference then the chances of agreeing a Brexit deal by October 31st are looking quite challenging. The mood music didn’t sound too positive either, with the European Commission’s statement saying that when it came to viable proposals from the UK to replace the backstop “Such proposals have not yet been made.” PM Johnson still said to the BBC that the UK will leave on October 31st regardless of any agreement with Brussels but that he would also obey the law, which says that unless MPs have approved a Brexit deal by October 19 or explicitly approved a no-deal exit then Johnson is required to request a 3-month extension from the EU. So how that circle is squared is anyone’s guess. The implication is that loopholes may be used. Events continue today as the Supreme Court hears the cases relating to the prorogation of Parliament, which will take place over the next 3 days.

In other news, the only data release of note yesterday – other than the early morning China data – came in the US where the September empire manufacturing print declined 2.8pts to 2.0 (vs. 4.0 expected). Notably, capex fell 19pts to the lowest since 2016 which points toward continued weakness in the manufacturing sector while new orders were also lower. The one bright spot was employment which climbed over 10pts to the highest since April.

To the day ahead, which for data this morning includes the September ZEW survey in Germany, while the data due in the US includes August industrial production, September NAHB housing market index and August import price index. Away from that we’re due to hear from a number of ECB speakers including Villeroy, Lane and Coeure. As mentioned the legal challenge to PM Johnson’s suspension of parliament arrives at the Supreme Court, a general election is being held in Israel, while the UN General Assembly opens in New York.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 52.64 POINTS OR 1.74%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 334.31 POINTS OR 1.23%   /The Nikkei closed UP 13.03 POINTS OR 0.06%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .29%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0965 /Oil UP TO 61.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and 67.85 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0965 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0913 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Italy

Former Prime Minister Renzi has decided to leave his Democrat party and start a new party.  He is a centrist but his party starting leaning far to the left.  His new party will go back to his roots of being centrist.  The Italian bonds tumbled on this news because of more instability

(zerohedge)

Italian Bonds Tumble As Matteo Renzi Quits Democrats To Form New Party

Everybody who bet against Italian debt on the belief that the only-days-old coalition between the Five Star Movement and Italy’s Democratic Party would swiftly fall apart might have been on to something.

Italian bonds tumbled Tuesday morning after former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi officially quit the Democratic Party to start his own political group. Though Renzi has said he will back PM Giuseppe Conte, investors are clearly worried about the prospects for more political instability.

“I have decided to leave the PD and to build together with others a new house to do politics differently,” Renzi wrote on Facebook.

Renzi, who was seen as a centrist reformer when he was elected in 2014, left office in 2016 amid a wave of dysfunction. But since his time in office, the party has shifted further to the left, with many left-recruits loyal to current party leader, Nicolas Zingaretti. Some have long suspected that Renzi might leave the Democrats to start his own more-centrist party.

And it appears that’s what he’s doing.

“The victory we got in parliament against populism and Salvini was important to save Italy, but it’s not enough,” Renzi wrote.

According to Italian media reports, about 30 lawmakers might declare their loyalty to Renzi, but he has promised to continue to support the Conte government…for now at least.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Michael Every has a keen mind and we must pay attention to him.  He comments on what the threat of a Middle East war means with respect to the Fed’s interest rate decision..he is now leaning to a cut in rates and long term bond yields will fall. He also comments on the Brexit affair and sees that Bo Jo is gaining in popularity

(zerohedge)

What Does The Threat Of Middle East War Mean For The Fed’s Decision

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Speaking Crudely

I can’t recall how long I have been banging on about rising geopolitical risks and how these presented a myriad of pressure points, any one of which ‘breaking’ would see markets move wildly. Well, it seems that one of the most old-fashioned and predictable of these, Middle East tensions, has re-emerged literally with a bang: over the weekend there was what was either a drone or a missile attack on key Saudi oil facilities that may have taken down up to 50% of output. The crown jewel of the Saudi oil industry has just been shown to be highly vulnerable to attacks that might have been carried out by low-cost, low-tech drones that will be almost impossible to prevent from occurring again.

The market implications speak for themselves: Brent surged 21% in early trading, the biggest intra-day move since 1991. (Which also involved the Middle East, of course.)

 

US Secretary of State Pompeo has already stated that Iran was behind this attack, while US President Trump has tweeted “there is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!” Knowing the deep, bitter, and long-standing Saudi-Iranian rivalry, whom do you suppose Riyadh will point the finger at here now it gets to do so?

If it is Iran, or Iran acting from Iraq…expect real regional fireworks. A 21% move in Brent might be small in those circumstances.

If it is the Houthis in Yemen (albeit backed by Iran) this would be a sign that the US and Saudis are not looking for full escalation at this moment. Yet is that likely now that the Saudi and global oil complex has been directly targeted? And, geopolitically, will the US still be willing to meet with Iran now that is has upped the ante…or will it be forced to by this ‘crude display’ of regional force?

We face sharply binary potential outcomes, and Trump has already tweeted that it is “Fake News” that he was willing to meet the Iranian president with no preconditions. Yes, we have ridden through lots of these kind of issues of late, and each time all returns to normal and markets have ended even higher. But if that doesn’t occur here in the world’s leading oil complex then the other scenario is terrifying. Do you really want to go Risk On today?

Back to markets. Trump has also announced the release of oil from the US strategic petroleum reserve, which the market was perhaps expecting given that the spike of 21% had already been moderated to “merely” 13%. Nonetheless, against this backdrop there is surely going to be a higher geopolitical risk premium built into the entire Middle East oil complex until matters are properly resolved.

What does that mean for other markets? Knee-jerk it is risk-off FX will stay better bid (JPY, CHF,…USD?); oil exporters will benefit (RUB); and oil importers will suffer (INR, etc.) And how about for central banks and rates markets? Consider that despite the fact that the markets–like ourselves, but later to the party–still see plenty more rate cuts coming ahead, recent US data, including last Thursday’s CPI and Friday’s retail sales, helped see a huge swing in 10-year yields. In the US this was from 1.47% to 1.90% despite the fact that the Fed is tipped to cut 25bp to 2.0% this week alone.

If we now have a threat of Middle East war and a much higher oil price, albeit with a lag once the strategic reserve has been depleted, where does that leave our monetary guardians? Will they really be worrying about oil pushing us into a wage-price spiral now that unemployment is so low – in which case rates need to rise, and devil take the stock and housing markets? Or will they see that in a globalised world a higher oil price is a lower real wage for most workers, in which case the stock and housing markets are already going to take a hit and will need the support of lower rates? I wager the latter: in which case, the almighty yield swing we saw last week is likely to be partially reversed immediately – on a risk-off basis alone.

Indeed, even before this all transpired there were other risks that pointed in the same direction. For example, with recent US data suggesting that the US economy is doing fine, surely the odds were rising on Trump needing to stir the pot on the trade-war front in order to ensure that rates come down as quickly as he would like? If this oil shock doesn’t do the trick, that trade shock will have to. Again, that is crude real politik – but welcome to the real world.

Meanwhile, other headlines today also don’t line up with the sunny market assessment we saw priced in last week.

In the UK we have heard suggestions that the next trick for the ‘Rebel Alliance’ in Parliament will be to push for the full repeal of Article 50 – on the premise this whole Brexit matter needs to simply be “sorted out”, and then the “real business” of politics can continue “as normal”. Yet genies rarely go back into bottles like that and Brexit increasingly IS politics as the UK party system breaks down. Indeed, an opinion poll published yesterday shows the Tories, despite bleeding members to the Lib Dems and suffering the worst press of any administration in memory, are widening their lead with 37% support to Labour’s 25% and the Lib-Dem’s 16%. The Brexit Party still has 13%, meaning half the voting public is in favour of the (off-the) cliff-edge tactics being pursued. PM Johnson has pledged to defy a parliamentary no-deal ban if he cannot get a deal,…and has compared himself to The Hulk–who gets stronger the madder he gets–wanting to break the chains of the EU: that the day before he sits down to discuss Brexit with Jean-Claude Juncker. How crude this is too.

end
Saudi Arabia/Russia/USA
Putin, the opportunist offers the Saudis a fix on how to prevent another attack from Iranian missiles: purchase of the S 400 defense shield but that would surely get the USA angry
(zerohedge)

Putin Trolls Saudis, Offers To Sell Them Same Missiles He Already Sold To Iran

Serious offer or some bold high level trolling?

President Vladimir Putin said while meeting with the presidents of Iran and Turkey in Ankara Monday to discuss Syria that the “smart decision”for the Saudis would be to purchase Russia’s most advanced anti-air defense system, the S-400 Triumph

“Saudi Arabia needs to make a smart decision, as Iran did by buying our S-300, and as Mr. Erdogan did by deciding to buy the most advanced S-400 Triumph air defense systems from Russia,” Putin told reporters in Ankara“These kinds of systems are capable of defending any kind of infrastructure in Saudi Arabia from any kind of attack.”

 

Russia has been delivering S-400 components to Ankara despite US threats and warnings, via the AP.

As geopolitical analysis blog Moon of Alabama has observed, “Saudi Arabia has no defenses against this kind of attack,” and it’s also the case that, “The U.S. has no system that could be used for that purpose.”

Thus it remains that the Saudis could only possibly turn to Russia to defend against small drones that can easily evade and penetrate most radar defense systems out there.

As the Moon of Alabama analysis concludes, “It would be extremely costly, and still insufficient, to protect all of the Saudi’s vital facilities from similar swarm attacks.”

Putin dropped the hint about the Saudis acquiring the S-400 when asked point blank about the early Saturday major drone attack on the Aramco facilities, citing the need for Riyadh to protect its oil infrastructure. Judging by Rouhani’s reaction, Putin’s proposal was rather “modest.”

Interestingly, he along with the other two leaders meeting in Ankara this week  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani  were all in agreement that the US-Saudi coalition bombing campaign and war on Yemen must be brought to a close as soon as possible.

Rouhani, for his part, said the attack on Aramco facilities was a reciprocal measure by “Yemeni people” to “aggression against Yemen for years.”

end

Iran/USA

The Iranian Supreme Leader states that there will be no talks with the USA at anylevel

(zerohedge)

Iran’s Supreme Leader: “There Will Be No Talks With The US At Any Level”

Ending all speculation about the possibility of a meeting between President Trump and the Iranian leadership, something President Trump has repeatedly said he’d be open to, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced on Tuesday that “there will be no talks with the US at any level” unless Washington agreed to return to the Iran deal, according to the Associated Press.

Iranian state TV quoted Khamenei, who said this is the position of the country’s leadership and that “all officials in the Islamic Republic unanimously believe” this.

Khamenei accused the US of trying to prove that its “maximum pressure policy” against Iran is successful by finally getting the Iranians to agree to talks, something they have been reluctant to do since Trump took office.

“In return, we have to prove that the policy is not worth a penny for the Iranian nation,” Khamenei said. “That’s why all Iranian officials, from the president and the foreign minister to all others have announced that we do not negotiate (with the U.S.) either bilaterally or multilaterally.”

However, the leader reiterated Iran’s stance that if the US returns to the nuclear deal, then Tehran would consider negotiations.

“Otherwise, no talks will happen…with the Americans,” he said.”Neither in New York nor anywhere” else.

As tensions with the Iranians flared once again following this weekend’s devastating attack on important Saudi Arabian oil facilities, rumors about a possible meeting between President Donald Trump and his Iranian counterpart, Hassan Rouhani, during the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting later this month in New York have been circulating. Particularly after the ouster of John Bolton, an Iran hawk who was hated by Tehran, some analysts thought face-to-face talks might finally be possible.

Trump said Monday that it “looks” like Iran was behind the explosive attack on the Saudi oil-processing facilities, though he added that the US wasn’t at the point of military retaliation. Tehran has denied any responsibility for the attacks. The Saudi government has called the attack an “unprecedented act of aggression and sabotage” – but has stopped short of blaming the Iranians.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who claimed responsibility for the attacks, appear to have used multiple cruise missiles and several drones to lay waste to KSA’s Abqaiq oil processing plant and a key oil field. Then again, experts say whoever planned the attack appears to have had knowledge about which facilities to hit.

end
Iran/USA
The uSA now issues the report which shows that the Aramco attack was launched from inside Iran
(zerohedge)

‘Low-Flying’-Missiles Used In Aramco Attack Were Launched Inside Iran: Report

The US has reportedly traced the cruise missiles used during a weekend attack that crippled half of Saudi Aramco’s oil production back to their point of origin: Iran. Or at least that’s what one US official is telling CBS News.

Many have argued that there’s zero upside for Iran in carrying out attacks like this (the region has also endured several attacks on oil tankers that have been blamed on Iran), but the US has insisted that Tehran was responsible for the attack, and that the missiles used were beyond the sophistication of Yemen’s Houthis, who had initially taken credit for the attacks.

Paul Danahar

@pdanahar

Senior US officials have told CBS they’ve identified the locations in Iran from which a combination of more than 20 drones and cruise missiles were launched against the Saudi oil facilities. They say the locations are in southern Iran at the northern end of the Persian Gulf.

According to US sources, 17 missiles or drones were fired, not the 10 the Houthis claim. Cruise missiles may have been used, and some targets were hit on the west-northwest facing sides, which suggests the projectiles were fired from the north, from Iran or Iraq.

Investigators have reportedly identified the exact location, purportedly in southern Iran, where a combination of more than 20 drones and cruise missiles were launched against the Saudi oil facilities.

Additionally, The Wall Street Journal reports that Saudi Arabia is increasingly confident that Iran directly launched a complex missile and drone attack from its southern territory on Saturday that battered the kingdom’s oil industry, according to people familiar with the investigation.

“Everything points to them,” said a Saudi official who wasn’t authorized to speak to the media, referring to Iran.

“The debris, the intel and the points of impact.”

Nevertheless, lawmakers from both parties in Washington have expressed reservations about the prospects of an American military strike on Iran.

end

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

This is good news:  there are now reports that the Saudis will normalize production within two to three weeks

(zerohedge)

Oil Prices Plunge On Reports Saudi Output Levels Normalized With 2-3 Weeks

WTI and Brent oil prices are plunging after Reuters headlines, quoting sources briefed on the matter, that Saudi oil output will return to normal quicker than initially thought.

WTI  is back down to a $59 handle for now – so not entirely convinced…

 

Brent is down 5% on the news as a “top Saudi source” confirms that Saudi output will be fully back online in next 2-3 weeks.

S&P Energy stocks are tumbling too…

 end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

India/Pakistan

This does not look good: India’s Minister says Pakistan is about to lose Pakistani occupied Kashmir

(zeorhedge)

 

“It Is Ours!” Indian Minister Says Islamabad About To “Lose Pakistani-occupied Kashmir”

A top Indian official has put Islamabad on notice, saying India’s nuclear-armed neighbor “should be ready to lose Pakistani-occupied Kashmir,”in perhaps the most provocative statement yet since New Delhi’s revoking its own administered Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) historic autonomy on August 5.

Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani was quoted by local media as making the inflammatory statement, saying

Now, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) too is ours … For fulfilling the dream of united India, we are ready to move forward for PoK.

 

Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani, file photo. 

“Article 370 has been revoked. Now, Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) too is ours. Pakistan should be ready to lose PoK. For fulfilling the dream of united India, we are ready to move forward for PoK… Pakistan should stop supporting terrorism… India will not tolerate this,” he asserted while speaking at a political rally, according to India Today.

And further referencing the 1971 Indo-Pakistani war in which Bangladesh was liberated, the Chief Minister responded to recent statements by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan. “Pakistan was boasting of occupying Delhi in 1971 but they were about to lose Karachi. Bangladesh was partitioned. Their Army became our refugees,” he said.

This comes after Pakistan’s foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi warned last week that the situation on the Line of Control (LoC) in the Jammu and Kashmir region continues to deteriorate and risks sparking an “accidental war,” as reported in the Hindustan Times.

 

Indian paramilitary soldiers in Indian-controlled Kashmir. Image source: AP

Qureshi was speaking on the sidelines of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva last Wednesday. He told journalists that Pakistan and India “understand the consequences of a conflict”. But he added that “an accidental war” cannot be ruled out. “… If the situation persists … then anything is possible,” he said.

Since the 1947 partition of British India, both countries  now bitter nuclear-armed rivals  have laid claim to Kashmir in full, though a tense status quo has left each with its side of the LoC.

After the Indian revocation of Article 370 to its constitution last month, tens of thousands of additional Indian troops have poured into J&K, putting the restive border region further on edge.

Pakistani officials previously claimed nothing less than an Indian-sponsored “genocide” is being carried out against Kashmiri Muslims on the Indian side of the LoC amid the sweeping security crackdown.

If indeed India is ready to “move forward” to “reclaim” the Pakistani side of the LoC, all-out war would no doubt be inevitable.

END

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1020 UP .0018 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY RED EXCEPT LONDON

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.14 DOWN 0.0080 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2411   DOWN   0.0015  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3254 UP .0013 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 18 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1020 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 52.64 POINTS OR 1.74% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 334.31 POINTS OR 1.23%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,42%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED EXCEPT LONDON

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED EXCEPT LONDON

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 334.31 POINTS OR 1.23%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 52.64 POINTS OR 1.74%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 29%

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 13.03  POINTS OR 0.06%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1499.60

silver:$17.87-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.81% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.27 DOWN 5  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 98.59 DOWN 2 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.31% UP 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.15%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.29%// UP 4 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.93 UP 8 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 64 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISESS TO –.47% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.40% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1062  UP     .0059 or 59 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.14 DOWN .012 OR YEN UP 1  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2487 UP .0062 POUND UP 62  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 6 basis points to 1.3248

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0922    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0870  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7022 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.15%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.80 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.26 DOWN 6 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.36 DOWN 25  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 2.59  0.04%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 1.65 POINTS OR .01%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 13.13 POINTS 0.23%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 44.00 POINTS or 0.49%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 160.53 POINTS OR 0.73%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 59.60 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 65.69 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    64.33  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.33 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 33 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.47 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  59.20//

 

 

BRENT :  64.13

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.81  down 4 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.27.. down 4 basis pts.

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1072 ( UP 69   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.14 UP .010 (YEN DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.23 DOWN 38 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.25006 UP 75  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7020

 

 

the Russian rouble 64.39   DOWN 0.39 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 39 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3244 DOWN 2 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0922  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0857 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.47%

 

The Dow closed UP 33.98 POINTS OR 0.13%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 32.47 POINTS OR 0.40%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  14.46 CLOSED DOWN .21

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.145%//libor STARTING TO RISE AGAIN

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Today’s “Watershed” Repo-calypse Is “One Of The Worst Things That Can Happen”

While it is being ignored by most (because the S&P didn’t crash), the chaos in the Fed-controlled short-term liquidity markets should panic everyone as for the first time in a decade, NYFRB was forced to inject liquidity for o/n repo…

Source: Bloomberg

Repo rates kept rising despite the Fed’s operation…

Source: Bloomberg

In context, this is quite a move…

Source: Bloomberg

As one veteran short-term rates trader explained

Bottom line: here’s what the market thinks of the Fed’s temporary solution…

It’s a joke.

MORE COWBELL?

More cowbell indeed.

As Bloomberg reports, today’s surge in Treasury repo rates poses a threat to the market more broadly because traders won’t take new positions without confidence in their ability to obtain funding at consistent rates, said John Fath, managing partner at BTG Pactual Asset Management and a primary dealer trader from 1993 to 2008.

Today was a bit of a watershed event, though we’ve been seeing this brewing. When they set funds rate target at 2 to 2.25, ideally you would like to funding to be around 2.15. For weeks it’s been above that.
“Today was more dramatic. Funding opened at 4.5, quickly moved to a high of 10, then dropped back to 2.50, nothing close to 2.15. So you’ve lost control of where you want financing.

Overnight financing is the key to driving the economy, leverage. If you don’t have control over it, what’s the point of setting a funds rate? If they ease tomorrow and funding is at 4%, does it matter if they eased?

If the plumbing doesn’t work, then it’s going to dramatically affect secondary trading of Treasuries. Which is the last thing they need when there’s massive issuance going on.

This is without a doubt one of the worst things that can happen. In many respects it overshadows the Fed moving tomorrow, because if the plumbing doesn’t work everything starts to break down. Everything is predicated upon your getting a reasonable funding rate. Otherwise why would you buy this paper to begin with. If you’re funding your overnight position at 6 why would you buy a 10-year at 2?

Today’s funding market was more emblematic of what goes on in emerging markets rather than the largest developed debt market in the world. The bid-offer spread in repo should be a couple of basis points. At 7am it was 100bp. It was moving in increments of 50bp up and down. Dealers weren’t quoting pricing in terms of size. That alone is suggestive of a market that’s broken in the short term. The Fed would’ve been proactive by intervening at that point. By intervening at 10, it’s too late. Most people need funding by 8:30. They didn’t even get to the targeted amount, because it was just too late. The damage was done. If you’re a foreign investor seeing rates all over the map it doesn’t reinforce your viewpoint that things are working well.

“A number of people have called asking what it’s going to look like tomorrow. These shouldn’t be issues for the marketplace. Why would you initiate putting on new positions, trading in secondary market, if you were concerned about how consistent funding’s going to be going forward. It’s just a settlement date — what’s year-end going to be like? These are questions people have asked me, in panicked way.

It’s a bigger deal than a rate cut by far. It’s meaningless if you put in a rate cut and overnight financing reflects nothing of that rate cut. Which is what’s happening right now. I’m surprised they let this get out of hand.”

How many more fleshwounds is this market going to withstand in the vain hope that Powell will keep delivering?

And before we move on to the rest of the markets, let’s put today’s repo chaos in context. As Monday Morning Macro notes, Here are a few “large” moves that markets have seen over the past few weeks. Notice anything that stands out?

 

Suffice to say, we’re not supposed to be talking about $ funding markets – the linchpin of the largest & most important (there, I said it) market in the world, US Treasuries – in the same breath as the wreckage wrought in Argentina only a month earlier. We’re definitely not supposed to be saying “the collapse in the Argentine Peso was barely 1/3 of what we just saw in the market that the Fed controls…”

Yet here we are.

*  *  *

Chinese stocks tumbled overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

European markets were mixed today with France and Germany best, Italy worst…

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P limped along sideways today (until the late-day rampathon) as Small Caps and Trannies dipped and ripped…

 

NOTE – the ramp was all about getting the S&P and Nasdaq and Small Caps back to even on the week

Energy stocks erased a big chunk of yesterday’s gains as oil prices slipped back lower…

 

Bank stocks rolled over after 8 straight days higher…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Defensives dominated today;s action but cyclicals rebounded from a weak open…

Source: Bloomberg

“Most Shorted” stocks tumbled at the open – no squeeze today – but bounced after Europe closed…

Source: Bloomberg

Factors were volatile again today with value weaker and momentum soaring early but fading late…

Source: Bloomberg

Bank stocks stalled at the usual spot…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Treasury yields extended their decline today with 30Y now down over 10bps since Friday’s close

 

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, WeWork bonds crashed…

Source: Bloomberg

Which makes WeWork a higher risk than Tesla…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Before we leave rates-land, we note that there is a 13.5% chance of a 50bps cut tomorrow and 86.5% odds of a 25bps cut…

Source: Bloomberg

And that rate-cut will come with full employment, surging inflation, record high stock prices, and near record low interest rates.

The Dollar Index puked pretty hard today, erasing all of yesterday’s gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Lots of chatter today about President Trump’s falling approval rating. However, seems to be holding up the dollar for now…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar dive was dominated by a surge in EUR and GBP…

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan tumbled back below the fix after dismal macro data…

Source: Bloomberg

Altcoins dominated crypto markets today with Ripple soaring most along with Ethereum…

Source: Bloomberg

As Bitcoin trod water, holding above $10,000 once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver outperformed, gold was flat (despite the dollar’s drop), as crude tumbled on Saudi headlines and copper drifted lower…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Silver extended yesterday’s gains, pushing above $18 once again…

 

Oil prices tumbled early on after Reuters headlines claimed that Saudi production would be back online within 2-3 weeks but then oil rebounded on Washington reports that missiles were fired from Iran to hit the refinery. However, the new Saudi energy minister spoke to press late on and sent the price back down again…

  • *SAUDI OIL MINISTER: WE HAVE CONTAINED THE DAMAGE
  • *ABQAIQ IS PROCESSING 2 MLN B/D OF OIL: ARAMCO CEO
  • *ARAMCO AIMS TO RESTORE ABQAIQ TO PRE-ATTACK LEVEL BY END-SEPT

Source: Bloomberg

Prepare yourself for higher pump prices…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally,

Ramp Capital ♿️@RampCapitalLLC

And they say no one rings a bell at the top https://twitter.com/newsweek/status/1173982485098762240 

Newsweek

@Newsweek

Massive semen explosion after blaze hits bull artificial insemination facility, firefighters forced to dodge “projectiles” https://trib.al/XI3dOhk 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

The manufacturing data today was a little better than last month but not enough to overturn its recession label

(zerohedge)

 

US Manufacturing Recession Continues For Second Month In A Row

The good news is that total US industrial production, which also includes output at mines and utilities, increased 0.6%, the most in a year as crude oil extraction bounced back after Hurricane Barry depressed drilling in the Gulf of Mexico a month earlier.

The bad news is that it was not enough to improve the deteriorating annual trend which showed a mere 0.4% YoY growth – the weakest since January 2017…

Source: Bloomberg

Manufacturing production jumped 0.5% MoM (well above the +0.2% expected) but…

But thanks to production of motor vehicles decreasing 1%, the most in four months, the worst news is that manufacturing production remains down on a YoY basis (-0.4% YoY) for the second month in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

The industry slipped into a recession during the first half of 2019 amid slowing overseas demand, exacerbated by an ongoing trade war with China. While domestic demand may help cushion producers from a deeper slowdown, the risk is that output could remain anemic in coming months.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

We highlight to you the plight of the truckers.  Mac Slavo gives us a good insight as to what happens if truckers stopped working all together:  grocery stores would run out of food in 3 days

(Mac Slavo.SHFTPlan.com)

If Truckers Stopped Working, Grocery Stores Would Run Out Of Food In 3 Days

Authored by Mac Slave via SHTFplan.com,

Because of the “bloodbath” ongoing in the trucking industry right now, it’s important to realize just how much Americans are dependent on trucking.

If truckers stopped working, grocery stores across the country would run out of food in just three days.

Trucking moves about 71% of the freight in the United States, according to the New Haven Register. That means that if the truckers in this country just stopped working, grocery stores would be out of food plunging the nation into an epic food crisis. It’s more important than ever to prepare yourself and your family for a possible food crisis.  Hunger will bring out the worst in humanity and ensuring you can provide enough will keep your mind at ease while others fight over the last can of corn.

“Without trucking, we would be naked, starving, and homeless,” Mike Robbins, a longtime trucker and leader of trucker strike group Black Smoke Matters, told Business Insider. And a study by the American Trucking Associations outlined what would happen if truckers were to stop working. The effects would hit hospitals, gas stations, ATMs, grocery stores, and even your garbage can.

Basic medical supplies, like syringes and catheters, would be at risk of running out. Medication for cancer patients that use radiopharmacuticals, which only have a life span of a few hours, would expire. –New Haven Register

This should highlight the importance of taking on a preparedness mindset.  If the grocery stores run out of food, what are your options?  A great majority of Americans have no idea how to grow or hunt their own food.  Others don’t think they need to have any stored food at all in case of a minor emergency such a blizzard or storm.

If you are lagging in your prepping, consider buying bulk dried beans already in buckets. An added bonus is that these buckets are stackable and easy to store. Beans are a staple in my personal prepping supplies because of their nutritional value and price. Plus, everyone in my family will eat beans.  Several brands offer beans in a sealed bucket that’s really easy to store. Augason Farms Pinto Beans Emergency Bulk Food Storage 4 Gallon Pail 253 Servings is offered at our local grocery store.  I have several different kinds of beans in our long-term food storage from this brand because of it.  The price is reasonable too.  This will run you about $60 and it’s similar on both Amazon and in the store.

Beans are only one option. You can also buy kits that have 30-days worth of food in them, such as the Augason Farms 5-20091 Deluxe Emergency 30-Day Food Supply (1 Person), 200 Servings, 36,600 Calories, Net Weight 20 lbs. 7 oz.  Take the size of your family into account when buying.  If you’ve already started prepping, you might need more food, however, if you’re just starting, now is the time to make sure food and water are a top priority!

A food crisis can hit at any time, and it could be in the form of a massive storm rendering travel impossible or an escalated trucking industry “bloodbath.”

*  *  *

Tess Pennington, the author of The Prepper’s Blueprint, has come up with over 300 “prepper” recipes for your emergency and long term food supply. The Prepper’s Cookbook: 300 Recipes to Turn Your Emergency Food into Nutritious, Delicious, Life-Saving Meals (Preppers) is an excellent resource and foundation that covers many topics of preparation. It is especially helpful for the seeker and the new-to-prepping, however, there are great ideas for even the seasoned prepper.

end

Michael Snyder weighs in on the hit of the Saudi oil facilities in Riyadh.  The attack came from the North and  West of Riyadh and due to the sophistication of the hits ,most likely it came from Iraq where Iranian  Shiites are stationed.  Documentation already exists that Iran has sent over to Iraq missiles capable of striking Riyadh.

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

 

If You Think The Price Of Oil Is Skyrocketing Now, Just Wait Until The War Starts…

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

In the aftermath of the most dramatic attack on Saudi oil facilities that we have ever seen, the price of oil has exploded higher.  The Wall Street Journal is calling this attack “the Big One”, and President Trump appears to be indicating that some sort of military retaliation is coming.  Needless to say, a direct military strike on Iran could spark a major war in the Middle East, and that would be absolutely devastating for the entire global economy.  Just about everything that we buy has to be moved, and moving stuff takes energy.

When the price of oil gets really high, that tends to create inflation because the price of oil is a factor in virtually everything that we buy.  In addition, a really high price for oil also tends to slow down economic activity, and this is something that we witnessed just prior to the financial crisis of 2008.  And if this crisis in the Middle East stretches over an extended period of time, it could ultimately result in a phenomenon known as “stagflation” where we have rapidly rising prices and weaker economic activity simultaneously.

The last time we experienced such a thing was in the 1970s, and nobody really remembers the U.S. economy of the 1970s favorably.

The damage caused by the “drone attacks” in Saudi Arabia was immense.  According to the Daily Mail, “huge plumes of black smoke” could be seen pouring out of a key Saudi oil facility…

Infernos raged at the plant in Abqaiq, Bugayg, and the country’s second largest oilfield in Khurais yesterday morning after Tehran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen fired a flurry of rockets.

Huge plumes of black smoke could be seen coming from the oil facility.

Houthi rebels in Yemen have publicly taken responsibility for the attacks, but they may or may not be telling the truth.

At this point, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is completely rejecting that explanation, and he is claiming that there is “no evidence the strikes had come from Yemen”

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed Iran for coordinated strikes on the heart of Saudi Arabia’s oil industry, saying they marked an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply.

The strikes shut down half of the kingdom’s crude production on Saturday, potentially roiling petroleum prices and demonstrating the power of Iran’s proxies.

Iran-allied Houthi rebels in neighboring Yemen claimed credit for the attack, saying they sent 10 drones to strike at important facilities in Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich Eastern Province. But Mr. Pompeo said there was no evidence the strikes had come from Yemen.

And according to Reuters, another unnamed “U.S. official” told them that the attacks came from “west-northwest of the targets”…

The U.S. official, who asked not to be named, said there were 19 points of impact in the attack on Saudi facilities and that evidence showed the launch area was west-northwest of the targets – the direction of Iran – not south from Yemen.

The official added that Saudi officials had indicated they had seen signs that cruise missiles were used in the attack, which is inconsistent with the Iran-aligned Houthi group’s claim that it conducted the attack with 10 drones.

Of course drones don’t have to travel in a straight line, and cruise missiles don’t either, and so we may never know for sure where the attacks originated.

But we do know that the Houthi rebels in Yemen are being backed by Iran, and we also know that the Shia militias in Iraq are also being backed by Iran.

So whether the attacks originated in Yemen, southern Iraq or Iran itself, it is not going to be too difficult for U.S. officials to place the blame on the Iranians, and we should expect some sort of military response.

In fact, President Trump posted the following message to Twitter just a little while ago

Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!

Of course U.S. airstrikes against Iran itself could ultimately spark World War 3, and most Americans are completely clueless that we could literally be on the precipice of a major war.

According to the Saudis, the equivalent of 5.7 million barrels a day of oil production were affected by the attacks.  Saudi Arabia typically produces about 9.8 million barrels a day, and so that is a really big deal.

When the markets reopened on Sunday night, oil futures exploded higher.  In fact, according to Zero Hedge this was the biggest jump ever…

With traders in a state of near-frenzy, with a subset of fintwit scrambling (and failing) to calculate what the limit move in oil would be (hint: there is none for Brent), moments ago brent reopened for trading in the aftermath of Saturday’s attack on the “world’s most important oil processing plant“, and exploded some 20% higher, to a high of $71.95 from the Friday $60.22 close, its biggest jump since futures started trading in 1988.

As I write this article, the price of Brent crude is currently sitting at $66.89, although at least one analyst is warning that the price of oil could soon shoot up to “as high as $100 per barrel” if the Saudis are not able to quickly resume their previous level of production…

The oil market will rally by $5-10 per barrel when it opens on Monday and may spike to as high as $100 per barrel if Saudi Arabia fails to quickly resume oil supply lost after attacks over the weekend, traders and analysts said.

Saudi officials have already told us that they anticipate that a third of the lost oil output will be restored on Monday.

But because of the extensive damage that has been done, restoring the remainder of the lost output could take “weeks” or even “months”.

In the short-term, President Trump has “authorized the release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve“, and that should help stabilize prices somewhat.

However, if a full-blown war with Iran erupts, nothing is going to be able to calm the markets.  In such a scenario, the price of oil could easily explode to a level that is four or five times higher than it is today, and that would essentially be the equivalent of slamming a baseball bat into the knees of the global economy.

The times that we are living in are about to become a whole lot more serious, but most Americans are not even paying attention to these absolutely critical global events.

In fact, even the mainstream media seems to believe that the new allegations against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh are more important.

That is because they don’t understand what is really happening.

Trust me, keep a close eye on the Middle East, because things are about to start breaking loose there in a major way.

end
We pointed this out to you yesterday and the situation is getting worse. Now the rep market is freezing over due to lack of liquidity.  The only way out of this s a huge QE
(zerohedge)

“Nobody Knows What’s Going On”: Repo Market Freezes As Overnight Rate Hits All Time High Of 10%

Back in the summer of 2013, China’s banking system was on the verge of collapse when its overnight repo rates briefly soared to the mid-20% range, prompting the central bank to take emergency intervention to avoid a funding freeze.

As of this morning, the US is halfway there.

After we reported yesterday that “something snapped” as chaos hit the report market, and the overnight repo rate exploded as high as 7% for a variety of reasons including:

  • elevated UST supply,
  • bloated dealer balance sheets and year-end regulatory constraints
  • a banking system near reserve scarcity,
  • investors selling bonds back to dealers, and
  • banks and money-market funds to make their quarterly tax payment.

… on Tuesday this panicked funding shortage has intensified to never before seen levels, as overnight repo has now hit 10% and shows no signs of slowing.

While specific prints are scarce as the bid/ask spread is a massive 2% at last check, Reuters has GC repo at 10%, while Bloomberg’s own pricing sources show the key funding rate soaring by more than 600 basis points to 8.53%, based on ICAP pricing, after opening around 7%.

Putting this move in context, overnight GC repo has not only just had its biggest surge in history, but it is printing at the highest level in decades!

Not even the rates experts are stumped, with one STIR trader saying “nobody knows what is going on”, and desks are simply watching what appears to be a relentless dollar funding squeeze as one or more entities are in desperate need for funding and will pay any price for it (even though it is neither month nor quarter end yet).

As a reminder, commenting on Monday’s just as shocking move, BMO rates strategist Jon Hill said that “secured funding markets are clearly not functioning well,” adding that a jump like this, one which is not happening during the traditional quarter end window dressing period, is “bordering on chaos.”

It is thus safe to say that secured funding markets are now officially broken.

Separately, Bloomberg points out that the Libor replacement rate, SOFR, or Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which is backed by overnight GC repo transactions, also jumped to 2.43% Monday from 2.20%, New York Fed data show. That’s the highest since July 31, and it is odd because it is taking place as the Fed already cut rates once and is expected to cut rates again tomorrow by at least 25bps.

Meanwhile, as we warned last Friday, the funding shortage has now spilled over into money markets, making dollar funding much more expensive, as any USD-based cross-currency swap spike. As Bloomberg notes, “demand for the dollar is showing up in swap rates from euros, pounds, yen and even Australia’s currency. As an example, the cost to borrow dollars for one week in FX markets while lending euros almost doubled.”

Just like Monday, while there was no immediate catalyst, as we explained on Friday, the reason behind Monday’s GC repo explosion is a combination of factors including the settlement of the mid-month Treasury coupon auctions that pushed collateral into the repo market, even as cash is leaving the funding space as corporations have withdrawn cash parked with banks and money-market funds to make their quarterly tax payment.

The funding shortage was made worse by an unexpected ill-timed event, because just as companies were withdrawing cash from money markets to pay corporate tax, a glut of new bonds appeared on the market as the U.S. government sold some $78 billion of 10- and 30-year debt last week. And with just $24 billion of bonds maturing in the period, this became one of three occasions this year when the imbalance between debt redemption and cash needed to buy new Treasuries exceeded $50 billion, according to Bloomberg.

But the biggest reason for the creeping dollar shortage is that as discussed extensively previously, following the recent debt ceiling deal, the Treasury is aggressively pushing its cash balance higher while depleting the amount of bank reserves in the system.

“Repo pressure is almost entirely a settlement story with $54 billion of net supply in Treasury coupons landing on already very crowded dealer balance sheets,” wrote Blake Gwinn, head of front-end rates at NatWest Markets, adding that the tax deadline probably exacerbated the situation.

The drop-off in reserves and fund outflows is driving up funding rates and is starting to spill into the fed funds market because repo’s attractive yields can draw some lenders away from the unsecured market.

Which again brings us the $64 trillion question: as a reminder, on Friday we concluded by asking rhetorically, “how to determine if the dollar funding squeeze will cause another major risk off episode?” Here, BofA said that as the Fed starts to test these reserve lows, “we expect funding markets to react by showing further Treasury cheapening, widening of FRA-OIS, and narrowing of front-end spreads & SOFR-FF basis.”

However, once the Fed responds by engaging in repo or outright UST purchase operations we expect these markets to move in the opposite direction. We suggest clients continue to trade these themes tactically and consider moving out of UST cheapening positions as fed funds rises towards the IOER +15 to +20 bps level.

We also said that “if the Fed wants to front-run the funding shortage, and aggressively inject liquidity into the system, nothing prevents it from following in the ECB’s footsteps and hint at another round of QE in the near future: not only would that send stocks soaring in the asset bubble’s “Icarus song”, but it would also make Trump happy, if only until it all comes crashing down.”

The problem for the Fed is that following today’s massive move in repo higher, it now appears that the Fed is once again behind the curve, and this time the funding squeeze could have dire consequences for not only the economy but the market, as the broken repo plumbing means that despite $1.4 trillion in excess reserves, one or more banks are suddenly left without liquidity, which as we explained over a month ago in “Forget China, The Fed Has A Much Bigger Problem On Its Hands”, the only alternative Powell may soon have is to restart QE.

end

Whether it is due to lack of liquidity or the oil shock or whatever, the Fed has lost control of its rates again.  The only way to bring them into equilibrium is more QE

(zerohedge)

The Fed Has Lost Control Of Rates Again

Something critical is going on in overnight funding markets: ever since March 20, the Effective Fed Funds rate has been trading above the IOER. This is not supposed to happen, and it just got significantly worse.

As a reminder, ever since the financial crisis, in order to push the effective fed funds rate above zero at a time of trillions in excess reserves, the Fed was compelled to create a corridor system for the fed funds rate which was bound on the bottom and top by two specific rates controlled by the Federal Reserve: the “floor” for the corridor was the overnight reverse repurchase rate (ON-RRP) which usually coincides with the lower bound of the fed funds rate, while on top, the effective fed funds rate is bound by the rate the Fed pays on Excess Reserves (IOER), which served as the corridor “ceiling.”

Or at least that’s the theory. In practice, the effective FF tends to occasionally diverge from this corridor, and when it does, it prompts fears that the Fed is losing control over the most important instrument available to it: the price of money, which is set via the fed funds rate.

Ever since March 20, this fear is front and center because as shown in the chart below, starting on March 20, the effective Fed Funds rate rose above the IOER first by just 1 basis point. The Fed attempted to technically tamp this down.. and failed. But today the Effective Fed Funds Rate has exploded….

Smashing above the IOER…

Source: Bloomberg

As we noted earlier, no one is sure of what is driving this apparent liquidity shortage

  • elevated UST supply,
  • bloated dealer balance sheets and year-end regulatory constraints
  • a banking system near reserve scarcity,
  • investors selling bonds back to dealers, and
  • banks and money-market funds to make their quarterly tax payment.

The bottom line is simple – The Fed has lost control of its rate-control mechanism.

So what should the Fed do to regain control over interest rates?

According to Barclays to address the expected increase in fed funds volatility, the Fed, having ended the balance sheet runoff this summer instead of waiting until September, could create a standing repo facility – something which has been rumored for months – or conduct standard open market operations, injecting even more liquidity into the system.

But as we noted earlier, the problem for the Fed is that following today’s massive move in repo higher, it now appears that the Fed is once again behind the curve, and this time the funding squeeze could have dire consequences for not only the economy but the market, as the broken repo plumbing means that despite $1.4 trillion in excess reserves, one or more banks are suddenly left without liquidity, which as we explained over a month ago in “Forget China, The Fed Has A Much Bigger Problem On Its Hands”, the only alternative Powell may soon have is to restart QE.

Fun week so far:

  • Monday: biggest ever surge in oil
  • Tuesday: biggest ever surge in GC repo

But stocks are near record highs, because… The Fed.

end
Another of our  darling USA companies showing trouble.  The ill fated We Work bonds are now crashing
(zerohedge)

WeWork Bonds Are Crashing (Again)

Neumann!!

Amid tumbling valuations, questionable investor support, and now IPO delays (or even longer-term postponements), WeWork bond prices have just cratered back to pre-IPO-filing lows…

 

Source: Bloomberg

With rumors that valuations have cratered to around $10-12 billion, is anyone surprised?

 

That is not what Masayoshi Son wants to see.

As we noted previously, if WeWork does follow the advice of its equity sponsor to delay the IPO, it may soon find itself in a liquidity crisis as it will also lose access to a $6 billion loan from a group of banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, that was contingent on the IPO raising at least $3bn in new investment.

The sudden loss of more than $9 billion in total new capital which had already been factored into the company’s growth trajectory, would force a dramatic change in the We Company’s corporate strategy according to the FT; it would also cripple its aggressive expansion strategy that has seen it open 528 locations in more than 110 cities.

And considering the company’s gargantuan losses – by the end of 2019 the company will have burned through $6 billion since 2016 – it might, as some have speculated, even lead to the company’s bankruptcy, which brings up even more pertinent questions: what would happen to the US commercial real estate sector where WeWork has emerged as one of the biggest players?

end

Fed-Ex is a terrific bellwether for global growth. After the bell its shares tumbled after they slashed outlook..they blamed the trade war.

(zerohedge)

‘Bellwether’ FedEx Shares Tumble After Slashing Outlook, Blames Trade War

FedEx shares are down 8% after hours following a cut to its earnings outlook.

The bellwether noted that operating results declined primarily due to weakening global economic conditions, increased costs to expand service offerings and continued mix shift to lower-yielding services.

“Our performance continues to be negatively impacted by a weakening global macro environment driven by increasing trade tensions and policy uncertainty,” said Frederick W. Smith, FedEx Corp. chairman and chief executive officer.

“Despite these challenges, we are positioning FedEx to leverage future growth opportunities as we continue the integration of TNT Express, enhance FedEx Ground residential delivery capabilities and modernize the FedEx Express air fleet and hub operations.”

And reduced its outlook significantly, now seeing FY adjusted EPS between $11.00 to $13.00, versus a Bloomberg estimate of $14.73 (range $14 to $15.85).

“FedEx is implementing additional cost-reduction initiatives to mitigate the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty, including post-peak reductions to the global FedEx Express air network to better match capacity with demand,” said Alan B. Graf, Jr., FedEx Corp. executive vice president and chief financial officer.

“However, we are continuing to make strategic investments to improve our capabilities and efficiency, which we expect will drive long-term increases in earnings, margins, cash flows and returns.”

These FedEx forecasts assume moderate U.S. economic growth, the company’s current fuel price expectations, no further weakening in international economic conditions from the company’s current forecast and no additional adverse developments in international trade policies and relations.

Sounds like a lot to hope for…

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Trump is furious as the New York Times and demands the resignation of all of those involved in the latest Kavanaugh smear story/Russian Witch Hunt Hoax

(zerohedge)

Trump Seethes At NYT; Demands Resignation Of All Involved In “Kavanaugh SMEAR Story” And “Russian Witch Hunt Hoax”

President Trump called for the resignation of everybody involved in a deceptive New York Times report containing a new sexual assault allegation against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh – while failing to mention that the alleged victim denies any memory of it, and that of the seven people who claim to have heard the story – just one of them recalls hearing that Kavanaugh’s was the penis in question.

As we reported earlier Monday, while digging into an unsupported allegation by a woman named Deborah Ramirez that Kavanaugh waved his penis in her face during the 1983-1984 academic year at Yale, the Times‘s Robin Pogrebin and Kate Kelly claimed to have uncovered another alleged incident in which Kavanaugh’s penis was thrust into a female student’s hand.

A classmate, Max Stier, saw Mr. Kavanaugh with his pants down at a different drunken dorm party, where friends pushed his penis into the hand of a female student. Mr. Stier, who runs a nonprofit organization in Washington, notified senators and the F.B.I. about this account, but the F.B.I. did not investigate and Mr. Stier has declined to discuss it publicly. (We corroborated the story with two officials who have communicated with Mr. Stier.) –New York Times

However in their new book “The Education of Brett Kavanaugh: An Investigation“- which the article was basically a promo for at Kavanaugh’s expense – the two yellow-journalists note that the woman has no memory of the incident.

Mollie

@MZHemingway

NYT Reporters’ essay about a supposed second Yale incident omitted their own book reporting that completely undercuts it: alleged victim denies any memory of it. Journalistically indefensible, though gullible additional reporters are spreading it of course.

After The Federalist‘s Mollie Hemmingway and others pointed this out, the Times issued a major correction to what the National Review‘s John McCormack called “one of the worst cases of journalistic malpractice in recent memory.” 

An earlier version of this article, which was adapted from a forthcoming book, did not include one element of the book’s account regarding an assertion by a Yale classmate that friends of Brett Kavanaugh pushed his penis into the hand of a female student at a drunken dorm party. The book reports that the female student declined to be interviewed and friends say that she does not recall the incident. That information has been added to the article. -NYT

And of course, many of the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates breathlessly called for Kavanaugh’s impeachment before the Times issued their major correction.

In response, President Trump began furiously tweeting Monday morning in Kavanaugh’s defense, writing among other things: “Just Out: “Kavanaugh accuser doesn’t recall incident.” @foxandfriends DO YOU BELIEVE WHAT THESE HORRIBLE PEOPLE WILL DO OR SAY. They are looking to destroy, and influence his opinions – but played the game badly. They should be sued!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Just Out: “Kavanaugh accuser doesn’t recall incident.” @foxandfriends DO YOU BELIEVE WHAT THESE HORRIBLE PEOPLE WILL DO OR SAY. They are looking to destroy, and influence his opinions – but played the game badly. They should be sued!

I call for the Resignation of everybody at The New York Times involved in the Kavanaugh SMEAR story,” tweeted Trump Monday afternoon, adding “while you’re at it, the Russian Witch Hunt Hoax, which is just as phony! They’ve taken the Old Grey Lady and broken her down, destroyed her virtue and ruined her reputation.

She can never recover, and will never return to Greatness, under current Management. The Times is DEAD, long live The New York Times!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I call for the Resignation of everybody at The New York Times involved in the Kavanaugh SMEAR story, and while you’re at it, the Russian Witch Hunt Hoax, which is just as phony! They’ve taken the Old Grey Lady and broken her down, destroyed her virtue and ruined her reputation…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

…She can never recover, and will never return to Greatness, under current Management. The Times is DEAD, long live The New York Times!

President Trump was not alone in his indignation as none other than The Wall Street Journal’s Editorial Board rushed out an angry op-ed blasting the left’s “Attack on the Supreme Court”:

This is the most radical attack on the judiciary in decades. These aren’t crank voices like those posting “Impeach Earl Warren ” billboards in the 1950s. This campaign is led by the power center of the Democratic Party, including Members of the Judiciary Committee such as Ms. Harris who vet judicial nominations. Their attack on a core democratic institution is exactly what they claim President Trump is doing, but Mr. Trump is mostly bluster.

This assault on the judiciary is being carried out with conviction and malice, as the character assassination against Justice Kavanaugh shows. One motivation is that everything on the left’s new agenda, from the Green New Deal to a wealth tax, depends on favorable court rulings. The left is used to running the nation’s law schools and controlling the courts.

But the Senate has confirmed more than 150 judicial nominees since President Trump took office. And progressives would now rather attempt a hostile takeover of Article III courts than wait to win the old-fashioned way: at the ballot box.

The partisan relitigation of Justice Kavanaugh’s confirmation is an embarrassment to the country…”

Trump and Kav: 1, Fake News: 0

end

The Kavanaugh  smear seems to unravel as the original accuser’s witness now doubts the story in its entirety

(zerohedge)

As Kavanaugh Smear Unravels, Original Accuser’s ‘Witness’ Now Doubts Story 

As the left-wing smear against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh continues to unravel amid a journalistic malpractice scandal at the New York Times, original Kavanaugh accuser Christine Blasey Ford’s “lifelong friend” and alleged witness now doubts her story.

Leland Keyser, who Ford claimed was one of five people at a party in the 1980s where she says Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her, told New York Times reporters Robin Pogrebin and Kate Kelly “I don’t have any confidence in the story.”

 

NYT Journos Robin Pogrebin and Kate Kelly

Keyser – who said she was pressured by Ford’s ex-FBI buddy to lie and say that she didn’t remember the party instead of saying that it never happened – originally said through her attorney that she “does not refute Dr. Ford’s account,” however “the simple and unchangeable truth is that she is unable to corroborate it because she has no recollection of the incident in question.”

“I was told behind the scenes that certain things could spread about me if I didn’t comply,” Keyser told the Times journos – who felt it wasn’t notable enough for their smear article.

Now, Keyser says she doesn’t believe Ford’s story at all

“We spoke multiple times to Keyser, who also said that she didn’t recall that get-together or others like it,” wrote Pogrebin and Kelly in their new book, The Education of Brett Kavanaugh: An Investigation (yet another item that didn’t make it into their inflammatory Times article). “In fact, she challenged Ford’s accuracy.

“Those facts together I don’t recollect, and it just didn’t make any sense,” said Keyser. “It would be impossible for me to be the only girl at a get-together with three guys, have her leave, and then not figure out how she’s getting home,” she added. 

Ryan Saavedra

@RealSaavedra

CBS News: Christine Blasey Ford’s close HS friend (who Ford says was at the party when Kavanaugh allegedly assaulted her) said Ford’s story isn’t believable and told the FBI Ford’s allies pressured her, threatened her with a smear campaign to say otherwise

Embedded video

During Kavanaugh’s confirmation process, Ford (whose lawyer recently admitted the goal was to place an ‘asterisk’ next to Kavanaugh’s name before ‘he takes a scalpel’ top Roe v. Wade) alleged that Kavanaugh and classmate Mark Judge from the all-boys Georgetown Prep, held her down and sexually assaulted in an upstairs room of a home in suburban maryland during a party.

Kavanaugh and Judge have vehemently denied the incident, while a third man who Ford claimed was at the party – Patrick J. Smyth, also denied any recollection of the event, telling the Judiciary Committee in a statement last September: “I understand that I have been identified by Dr. Christine Blasey Ford as the person she remembers as ‘PJ’ who supposedly was present at the party she described in her statements to the Washington Post,” Smyth wrote in his statement. “I am issuing this statement today to make it clear to all involved that I have no knowledge of the party in question; nor do I have any knowledge of the allegations of improper conduct she has leveled against Brett Kavanaugh.”

Meanwhile, The New York Times was forced to issue a major correction on Monday after Pogrebin and Kelly claimed to have uncovered another alleged incident in which Kavanaugh’s penis was thrust into a female student’s hand.

A classmate, Max Stier, saw Mr. Kavanaugh with his pants down at a different drunken dorm party, where friends pushed his penis into the hand of a female student. Mr. Stier, who runs a nonprofit organization in Washington, notified senators and the F.B.I. about this account, but the F.B.I. did not investigate and Mr. Stier has declined to discuss it publicly. (We corroborated the story with two officials who have communicated with Mr. Stier.) –New York Times

Except – much like Keyser’s bombshell which undercuts Blasey Ford’s story, the Times journos omitted the fact that the new accuser refused to be interviewed, and has no memory of the incident.

Yellow journalism at its finest, courtesy of the New York Times.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The New York Times is at its lowest point in its long and storied history. Not only is it losing a lot of money, but it is a journalistic disaster, being laughed at even in the most liberal of enclaves. It has become a very sad joke all all over the World. Witch Hunt hurt them…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….”That story (Kavanaugh) is nowhere near the standard that should be met in publishing a story.” @brithume @FoxNews

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

The King Report September 17, 2019 Issue 6093                                                                                Independent View of the News

From Monday’s King Report: Traders want to buy dips this week for option and futures’ expiration and the expected Fed rate cut on Wednesday. Plus, the BoJ meets on Wednesday and Thursday.  However, the situation between Saudi Arabia and Iran mandates caution, at the least.  That being said, too many traders: 1) Are conditioned to buy any dips; and 2) too many traders and investors have little fear of the downside, no matter the news.

ESZs made their low (2983.50) at 10:27 ET.  By 9:52 ET, 22 minutes after the NYSE open, they had rallied to 3004.50.  After a 99-handle retreat, ESZs rallied into the European close, of course.  However, after Europe closed, ESZs and stocks declined.  An afternoon rally appeared; but it was labored.

A big negative on Monday was the surge in repo rate.  The overnight rate hit 7% during the final hour of trading.  It settled at 5% after the close.  Some pundits proffered the view that a day or two of a funding squeeze would not be a problem.  But if the need for funds continues, let alone accelerates, look out.

The last hour of NYSE trading on Monday was very choppy.  The usual suspects tried to perform their standard late manipulation; but sellers prevented their scheme.  After the NYSE close, the manipulators pushed ESZs four handles higher.  The scheme to push ESZ higher for Tuesday began earlier than usual.

The massive issuance of debt, public and private, over the past week or two is a major factor in the funds rate rally.  If the Street can’t unload some of its merchandize on greater fools, the squeeze will continue.

China issued disappointing economic data on Monday.

  • Aug Industrial Production 4.4% y/y; 5.2% exp; 4.8% prior
  • Aug Retail Sales 7.5% y/y, 7.9% exp, 7.6% prior
  • Fixed Assets ex-Rural 5.5% YTD y/y, 5.7% exp, 5.7%

The NY Fed’s September Empire Manufacturing fell to 2.0 from 4.8.  4 was consensus.

NY Fed: The new orders index fell three points to 3.5, pointing to a small increase in orders. The shipments index fell four points to 5.8, its lowest level in nearly three years…

After spending three months in negative territory, the index for number of employees rose to 9.7, pointing to an increase in employment levels, while the average workweek index came in at 1.7, indicating little change in hours worked. Prices increased at a faster pace than last month: the prices paid index moved up six points to 29.4, and the prices received index climbed five points to 9.2.

The index for future business conditions fell twelve points to 13.7. The indexes for future new orders and shipments also moved lower. Firms expected increases in employment levels but no change in the average workweek in the months ahead. The capital expenditures index plunged nineteen points to 4.6, its lowest level in three years, and the technology spending index fell to 6.5, also a multi-year low..

https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview

Small Business Optimism Index – August 2019 Report:

Small Business Economy Remains Steady, Despite Doom and Gloom Narrative That’s Hampering Expectations – The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.6 points to 103.1, remaining within the top 15 percent of readings. Overall, August was a good month for small business. However, optimism slipped because fewer owners said they expect better business conditions and real sales volumes in the coming months. Job creation accelerated, positive earnings trends improved, and quarter-on-quarter sales gains remained strong…

Wall Street commentators joined by some economists have produced a cacophony of warnings about a coming recession. Not joining the noise is half the U.S. economy: small businesses. They do not agree and don’t see a disaster in the near future. They are also quite unsure that cutting interest rates now will help the Federal Reserve to get more inflation or spur spending…

https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/

@zerohedge: Three JPMorgan Traders Charged for “Massive” Gold Market Manipulation Fraud

The US Justice Department: Current and Former Precious Metals Traders Charged with Multi-Year Market Manipulation Racketeering Conspiracy

    “Smith, Nowak, Jordan, and their co-conspirators allegedly engaged in a complex scheme to trade precious metals in a way that negatively affected the natural balance of supply-and-demand,” said FBI Assistant Director in Charge William F. Sweeney Jr. of the FBI’s New York Field Office. “Not only did their alleged behavior affect the markets for precious metals, but also correlated markets and the clients of the bank they represented. For as long as we continue to see this type of illegal activity in the marketplace, we’ll remain dedicated to investigating and bringing to justice those who perpetrate these crimes.”…   https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/current-and-former-precious-metals-traders-charged-multi-year-market-manipulation

@MikaelSarwe: Can someone remind me what happened with the equity market the last time [1999] the trend in (fictional?) operating EPS diverged massively from earnings from a true national income perspective? Scary chart at:  https://twitter.com/MikaelSarwe/status/1171765681127329793

Global Currency Trading Surges to $6.6 Trillion-A-Day Market

  • BIS publishes triennial report on foreign-exchange industry
  • Daily volume rises 29%, led by swaps and derivatives growth

“The U.S. dollar retained its dominant currency status, being on one side of 88% of all trades,” BIS said…  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-16/global-currency-trading-surges-to-6-6-trillion-a-day-market

We’ve been hearing and reading about the demise of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency for decades.  If the dollar is 88% of daily forex transactions, the dollar Cassandras are ignorant of forex.

As of December 31, 2018, the World Bank estimates world GDP at 85.790 trillion. This means that daily forex trading is about 19 times daily world GDP.  Good thing there are no signs of excess speculation!

Today – Barring negative news, traders will try to affect a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside.  The Street remains very bullish due to central bank largesse; and it is expiration week.  Traders will buy dips this week for the expiration upward squeeze and the expected Fed rate cut on Wednesday. Plus, the BoJ meets on Wednesday and Thursday.  ESZs are -1.25 at 21:00 ET in very quiet trading.

The S&P 500 Index had an Inside day on Friday.  On Monday, the index broke out of the pattern to the downside.  The usual suspects bought every dip, which prevented downside momentum from forming.

Traders pushed the S&P 500 Index above 3000 after the first 25 minutes of NYSE trading.  Sellers appeared.  For the next 30 minutes, the usual suspects kept trying to keep the S&P 500 Index above 3k.  However, sellers kept feeding the fishes.  After 35 minutes of wild swings above and below 3000, sellers overwhelmed the buyers.  Ergo, the game today is to force the S&P 500 Index above 3000.

The S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 2950; 100-day MA: 2918; 150-day MA: 2888; 200-day MA: 2820

The DJIA 50-day MA: 26,604; 100-day MA: 26,333; 150-day MA: 26,213; 200-day MA: 25,721

S&P 500 Index support: 2985-90, 2972, 2955-60, 2940-45, 2930, 2922, 2914, 2900, 2880

Resistance: 3002-05, 3017-20, 3027, 3040, 3050

Expected economic data: Aug Industrial Production 0.2% m/m, Mfg Production 0.2%, Capacity Utilization 77.6%; Sept NAHB Housing Market Index 66; 2-day FOMC Meeting commences

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames

Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 2502.93 triggers a sell signal

Weekly: Trender is positive;MACD is negative – a close below 2816.78 triggers a sell signal

Daily: Trender andMACD are positive -a close below 2942.29 triggers a sell signal

Hourly: Trender andMACD are negative – a close above 3008.29 triggers a buy signal

Russia carried out a ‘stunning’ breach of FBI communications system, escalating the spy game on U.S. soil – On Dec. 29, 2016, the Obama administration announced that it was giving nearly three dozen Russian diplomats just 72 hours to leave the United States… [3 weeks before Trump took over!]

    The Obama administration’s public rationale for the expulsions and closures… was to retaliate for Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election. But there was another critical, and secret, reason why those locations and diplomats were targeted…

    The operation, which targeted FBI communications, hampered the bureau’s ability to track Russian spies on U.S. soil at a time of increasing tension with Moscow, forced the FBI and CIA to cease contact with some of their Russian assets, and prompted tighter security procedures at key U.S. national security facilities in the Washington area and elsewhere… It even raised concerns among some U.S. officials about a Russian mole within the U.S. intelligence community…

    American officials discovered that the Russians had dramatically improved their ability to decrypt certain types of secure communications and had successfully tracked devices used by elite FBI surveillance teams. Officials also feared that the Russians may have devised other ways to monitor U.S. intelligence communications, including hacking into computers not connected to the internet…

https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-russia-carried-out-a-stunning-breach-of-fbi-communications-system-escalating-the-spy-game-on-us-soil-090024212.html

Well that is all for today

I will see you WEDNESDAY night.

 

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