SEPT 18//FED OUT OF CONTROL: THEY LOWER RATES AT 1/4% BUT FAIL TO ADDRESS THE LIQUIDITY CRISIS IN THE MONEY MARKETS//LAST TWO DAYS HUGE SHORTAGE OF LIQUIDITY//GOLD ROSE $2.40 COMEX TO COMEX TO $1507.90/HOWEVER IN ACCESS MARKET IT CLOSED AT 1493.50// SILVER WAS DOWN 24 CENTS TO $17.84//IN ACCESS MARKET DOWN ANOTHER 10 CENTS TO $17.74//SOMETHING IS SCARING OUR PAPER GLD BOYS AS GLD INVENTORY ROSE BY 5.86 TONNES///HUGE QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER AGAIN AS A TOTAL OF 43. MILLION OZ STAND//SAUDI ARABIA PROVIDES EVIDENCE HOW THE IRANIANS ATTACKED ARAMCO//

GOLD:$1507.90 UP 2.40 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.84 DOWN 24 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1501.00

 

silver:  $18.01

Definition of Rico

RICO is typically used to indict mobsters – which makes its use against employees of the largest bank in America a very disquieting event. But even more disquieting is that two trial lawyers compared JPMorgan Chase to the Gambino crime family five long years ago and recommended in their 2016 book that the bank’s officers be prosecuted under the RICO statute.” … Pam Martens and Russ Martens

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING  1/3

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,505.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/17/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 09/19/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 C JP MORGAN 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 3 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 3 3
MONTH TO DATE: 1,733

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT CONTRACT: 3 NOTICE(S) FOR 300 OZ (0.00933 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1733 NOTICES FOR 173300 OZ  (5.3903 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR SEPT

 

 

94 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 470,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 8438 for   42,190,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10170 DOWN 17 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10640 UP 823

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE  SIZED 2127 CONTRACTS FROM 214,641 DOWN TO 212,514 DESPITE THE STRONG 14 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. WE AGAIN HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING TODAY

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

SEPT, 0 FOR DEC: 1477, AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1477 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1477 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1477 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 7.385 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 14 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

WE AGAIN HAD  HUGE COVERING OF BANKER SHORTS  AT THE SILVER COMEX YESTERDAY AS NO DOUBT OUR FRIENDS WERE SCARED OF THE GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE THEY WERE FACING.

 

THE LIQUIDATION OF COMEX OI OF SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED AND WE WILL NOW COMMENCE WITH THE ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADERS GOLD OPEN INTEREST

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT:

24,497 CONTRACTS (FOR 12 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 24,497 CONTRACTS) OR 122.48 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2041 CONTRACTS OR 10.20 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  122.48 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 17.49% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1672.10   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2127, DESPITE THE STRONG 14 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1477 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE LOST A SMALL  SIZED: 650 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1477 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 2127  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 14 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.08 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.063 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 152% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 94 NOTICE(S) FOR 470,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 5983 CONTRACTS, TO 630,990ACCOMPANYING THE  $1.50 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// /

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5907 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  5907 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 630,990,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,890 CONTRACTS: 5983 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 5907 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 11,890 CONTRACTS OR 1,189,000 OZ OR 36.98 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF $1.50 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT TINY  GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUGE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 36.98  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER TRYING TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE WITH SOME  SUCCESS. AND WITH THAT SMALL GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 36.98  TONNES!!!!!!. OUR BANKER FRIENDS TODAY DID NOT EVEN TRY TO COVER THEIR SHORTFALL AS THEY PILED ON THE COPIOUS PAPER. THIS IS IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO SILVER WHERE THEY ARE FRIGHTENED BY THE LANDSCAPE AND THUS NIBBLING AWAY AT THEIR SHORTFALL. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 82,314 CONTRACTS OR 8,231,400 oz OR 256.03 TONNES (12 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 6859 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 256.03 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 256.03/3550 x 100% TONNES =7.21% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4407.63  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 5983 DESPITE THE SMALL  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($1.50)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5907 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5907 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 11,890 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5097 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 5983 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 36.98 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE TINY  GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.50 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  3 notice(s) filed upon for 300 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD..

WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES

(SOMETHING SCARED THESE GUYS)

INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: 

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2127 CONTRACTS from 214,641  DOWN TO 212,514 AND FURTHER FROM A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR SEPT. 0; FOR DEC  1477  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1477 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2127  CONTRACTS TO THE 1477 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL LOSS OF 650 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2.735 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ// AND FINALLY SEPT: SEPT  2019: 43.030 MILLION OZ//

 

 

 

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 14 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1477 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.54 POINTS OR 0.25%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 36.12 POINTS OR 0.13%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 40.61 POINTS OR 0.18%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .15%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0885 /Oil UP TO 58.86 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.34 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0885 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0831 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

Zero hedge outlines what comes next in this time line

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)RUSSIA/BILL BROWDER/MAGNITSKY

A court has finally revealed the truth behind the Magnitsky affair.  We now know that Magnitsky was complicit with Bill Browder as they stole vast sums of money from the young Russia (under Yeltsin). No doubt Magnitsky was murdered under the orders of Bill Browder as he knew too much

a good read..

(Craig Murray)

ii)SAUDI ARABIA/IRAN/USA

Saudi Arabia now says that it has material evidence tying Iran to the attack n Aramco
(zerohedge)

iii)Saudi Arabia/Iran

the evidence is revealed and it unquestionably reveals that the missiles came from the North, most likely from Iranian held territory in Iraq.
(zerohedge)

iv)Iran/USATrump does not want war.  He feels he could get better mileage with more increased sanctions. The country of Iran is bankrupt.

(zerohedge)

v)Iran/USA/Saudi Arabia

Mike Pompeo declares that the attack was an act of war.

(zerohedge)

vi)TURKEY

Erdogan wants to create a refugee city of the border with Turkey and to act as a buffer.  If he does not get this he will flood Greece with 1 million migrants
(AlmasdarNews)

6.Global Issues

Bill Blain wakes up this morning and states that something is wrong.  Find out what is bothering him

(Bill Blain)

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil continues to rise despite bigger than expected crude build. The geopolitical landscape is calling for increased oil prices

(zerohedge)

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Bill Murphy interviewed by Phil Kennedy and the topic is how far will the rigging probe go?

(Bill Murphy/GATA/Kennedy)

ii)Thom Callandra on the metal price suppression

(Thom Callandra)

iii)Bill Murphy interviewed by Silver Doctors and Murphy suggests there are two factions in the USA government:

1 the lower level guys who are out to get the blood of JPMorgan

2 the upper echelon who knows of the official sector rigging and these guys are backing off

(courtesy Bill Murphy/Silver Doctors)

iv)Pam and Russ Martens now wonder if Jamie Dimon will finally lose his job over these racketeering charges?  Will JPMorgan finally be punished for continual racketeering

an excellent commentary..

Russ and Pam Marten

(Wall Street on Parade)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

One of the big stories of the day:  The Fed funds prints at 2.30% ,much higher than 2/25% ceiling due to the lack of liquidity in the market. And now the new replacement for Libor (Security Overnight Financing Index or SOFI) just skyrocketed a huge 2.87% to 5.25%

(zerohedge)

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON/FOMC

i)FOMC cuts rates, as well as failing to address the liquidity crisis.  They did cut the IOER which is what they pay the banks on excess reserves by 30 basis points, hoping that will help the liquidity.

(zerohedge)

ii)Trump furious as he slams the clown Powell as a terrible communicator. He says that he failed again

(zerohedge)

iii)Market reaction this afternoon.

the clown, Powell should take a bow;

ii)Market data/USA

Low mortgage rates has finally spurred housing starts as well as permits

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Last night, the liquidity shortage is getting worse!!  The Fed is in a pickle.  As we shall find out, they just did not know how to address this in their FOBC report

(zerohedge)

b) Trump brings on new advisor

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Mish blast the New York times for their obvious Kavanaugh smear piece.

(Mish Shedlock)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 5983 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 630,990 ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL GAIN OF $1.50 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5907 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR SEPT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 5907   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5907 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 11,890 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5907 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 5983 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS SUCCEEDED IN CONTAINING GOLD’S PRICE BY A TINY GAIN OF 1.50. HOWEVER, JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY UNSUSPECTING LONGS. 

 

 

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  11,890 CONTRACTS OR 1,189,000 OZ OR 36.98 TONNES.

We are now in the NON  active contract month of SEPT and here the open interest stands at 23 CONTRACTS and we lost 6 contracts.  We had 6 notices filed yesterday so despite the raid and liquidation of contracts we gained 0 contracts or an additional nil oz of gold that will  stand for delivery at the comex and the siege continues as the story for physical gold is the name of the game despite the criminal antics of the bankers.

The next active delivery month is October and here the OI FELL by 2512 contracts DOWN to 33,835. The month of November saw a loss of 8 contract and thus the OI is reduced to 162.  The very big December contract month saw its oi RISE by 6,565 contracts up to 472,729.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 3 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  300 OZ. (0.00933 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2127 CONTRACTS FROM 214,641 DOWN TO 212,514 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED DESPITE A 14 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.  HERE WE HAVE 262 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 53 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 147 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE AGAIN SURPRISINGLY GAINED A FULL 94 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 470,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..  THE NEXT NON ACTIVE CONTRACT MONTH IS OCTOBER AND IT RECEIVED ANOTHER 4 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1597. NOVEMBER SAW A SMALL LOSS OF 1 CONTRACT TO STAND AT 179. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI FALLS BY 1934 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 163,658.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 94 notice(s) filed for 470,000, OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 231,786  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  358,636  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  SEPT/GOLD

SEPT 18/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
3 notice(s)
 300 OZ
(0.00933 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
20 contracts
(2000 oz)
.0622 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1733 notices
173,300 OZ
5.3903 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 0  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ zero amount  arrived   today

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today
FOR THE SEPT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 3 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1733) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT. (23 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (3 x 100 oz per contract) equals 175,300 OZ OR 5.4525 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of SEPT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1733 x 100 oz)  + (23)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (3 x 100 oz )which equals 175,300 oz standing OR 5.4525 TONNES in this  active delivery month of SEPT.

 

We GAINED 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will seek metal on this side of the pond instead of morphing over to London.  The gold comex is still under siege for any remaining physical metal.

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 27.153  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING //AUGUST AND 5.4525 TONNES IN SEPT.//

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT AS WELL AS SEPT SO FAR, AND THUS I WILL ADD THE 27.153 TONNES TO THE 5.4525 TONNES (EQUALS 32.606 TONNES) AGAINST THE 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  736,702.381 oz or  22.91 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,098,442.861 oz 251.89 tonnes

IN THE LAST 35 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
SEPT 18 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 nil oz

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
579,489.045 oz
Brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)
94
CONTRACT(S)
(470,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
168 contracts
 840,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  8438 contracts

42,190,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into Brinks: 579,489 oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million)

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  579,489.045  oz

 

we had 0 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total nil  oz

 

we had 0 adjustment :

 

 

total dealer silver:  87.928 million

total dealer + customer silver:  307.104 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER 2019. contract month is represented by 94 contract(s) FOR 470,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 8438 x 5,000 oz = 42,190,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (262) and the number of notices served upon today 94 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2019 contract month: 8438 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (262)- number of notices served upon today (94)x 5000 oz equals 43,030,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month. 

We gained another strong 94 contracts or a huge 470,000 additional oz of silver will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 94 notice(s) filed for 470,000 OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  73,390 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 92,020 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 92,020 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 460 million  OZ 65.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.79% ((SEPT 18/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.03% to NAV (SEPT 18/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.79%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.03 TRADING 14.53/DISCOUNT 3.32

 

 

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 16/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A BIG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 12//WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A HUGE 7.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.15 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: I)A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD (LATE YESTERDAY EVENING) AND 2) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES LATE THIS AFTERNOON./INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.17 TONNES

AUGUST 20//WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WE GOT BACK 7.63 TONNES OUT OF 11.11 TONNES LOST ON WEDNESDAY( A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

 

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

 

 

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SEPT 18/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 880.37 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 666 TRADING DAYS: 55.01 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 566- TRADING DAYS: A NET 111.64 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.899 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION PAPER OZ OF SILVER///INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.425 MILLION PAPER OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.179 MILLION OZ../

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 60 CENTS TODAY: A RATHER TIMID CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 842,000 PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 386.604 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.696 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20.WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 16/: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 15/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 18/2019:

 

 

Inventory 376.502 MILLION OZ

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.13/ and libor 6 month duration 2.08

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .05

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.07%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.08

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.01

gold lending rates negative out to the entire year.

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

JPMorgan’s Gold and Silver Desk Was a Criminal Enterprise – U.S. Justice Department

◆ JPMorgan’s head of precious metals trading and senior traders have been charged by the U.S. Department of Justice with rigging precious metal prices in a “massive, multiyear scheme”

◆ The DOJ’s indictment said the scheme generated millions of dollars in profits for JPMorgan Chase and caused millions in losses for counter-parties, prosecutors said

◆ JPM precious metals desk chief, Michael Nowak, who was indicted is a JPM managing director and London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) board member

◆ The U.S. DoJ has invoked RICO or Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act racketeering law in charging JP Morgan and racketeering is very rarely used in cases involving large banks

◆ JPM is accused of illegally monopolizing the silver futures market, engaging in “widespread spoofing, market manipulation and fraud” in the gold and silver market and defrauding investors

◆ JP Morgan may have accumulated the biggest stockpile of physical silver in history – See JP Morgan Cornering Silver Market?

Source: Goldchartsrus.com

goldcore_chart2_01-05-15

 

NEWS and COMMENTARY

JPMorgan’s Metals Desk Was a Criminal Enterprise, U.S. Says

3 From JPMorgan Accused in Scheme to Game Precious Metals Market

Will Jamie Dimon finally lose his job over racketeering charges?

JP Morgan Racketeering Case Way More Than Gold & Silver Spoofing

How far will rigging probe go?Kennedy interviews GATA Chairman

Repo Market Chaos Signals Fed May Be Losing Control of Rates

Gold steady amid cautious mood, focus shifts to ‘losing control’ Fed

Gold notches second straight gain, adds to climb toward 1-week high

 

Gold Prices (LBMA – USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)

17-Sep-19 1499.30 1502.10, 1208.89 1207.24 & 1361.51 1360.45
16-Sep-19 1502.05 1497.20, 1207.35 1203.30 & 1357.25 1359.46
13-Sep-19 1506.30 1503.10, 1209.41 1208.19 & 1356.88 1358.35
12-Sep-19 1502.95 1515.20, 1219.94 1227.46 & 1362.88 1373.53
11-Sep-19 1493.65 1490.65, 1208.21 1209.07 & 1354.74 1355.90
10-Sep-19 1494.60 1498.25, 1211.52 1211.34 & 1353.51 1357.11
09-Sep-19 1509.95 1509.20, 1223.81 1220.34 & 1368.62 1364.92
06-Sep-19 1504.95 1523.70, 1223.52 1237.09 & 1363.94 1378.49
05-Sep-19 1542.60 1529.10, 1257.06 1238.72 & 1397.44 1380.78

 

 

Click here to listen to the latest GoldCore Podcast

Receive our free Daily or Weekly Updates by signing up here and click here to subscribe to GoldCore’s You Tube Channel

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Bill Murphy interviewed by Phil Kennedy and the topic is how far will the rigging probe go?

(Bill Murphy/GATA/Kennedy)

In interview with Phil Kennedy, GATA chairman asks: How far will rigging probe go?

 Section: 

9:25a ET Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewed last night by Phil Kennedy of Kennedy Financial, GATA Chairman Bill Murphy marveled at the publicity suddenly being given to gold and silver market rigging, on account of the latest indictments of traders for JPMorganChase. But Murphy added that the “spoofing” attributed to the JPM traders is the smaller part of the manipulation of the markets, the bigger part being surreptitious intervention by governments and central banks.

… 

Kennedy and Murphy discussed how far the Justice Department’s investigation will go — to JPM’s former commodity desk chief, Blythe Masters? To the bank’s chief executive, Jamie Dimon? To the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and Bank for International Settlements? There is plenty of evidence that all of them were involved with metals market manipulation.

Kennedy and Murphy also discussed the possibility of more fraud lawsuits against JPMorganChase.

The interview is 26 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4fxLsSEEXU&feature=youtu.be

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

end

Thom Callandra on the metal price suppression

(Thom Callandra)

As monetary metals price suppression fails, you may want The Calandra Report

 Section: 

9:40a ET Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

With infinite money and currency devaluation now being the policy of many central banks, the prospects for the monetary metals mining industry will be spectacular as central bank commodity price suppression policy fails from exposure by GATA and others.

So GATA supporters should consider a generous offer made by our old friend Thom Calandra, publisher of The Calandra Report, a financial letter with an emphasis on resource companies.

… 

Thom will split with GATA the one-year subscription fee of $169 paid by GATA supporters who subscribe to The Calandra Report by September 21. That is, for each GATA supporter who subscribes, Thom will contribute $85 to GATA.

GATA supporters who subscribe by then will receive two bonuses as well.

— Thom’s frequent TCR Collateral missives, which include material from his notebook about financial people, companies, and commodities.

— A special recent issue of The Calandra Report that identifies what Thom believes are substantially undervalued gold, silver, and copper mining companies and a rising biomedical company with a promising new drug.

A note from Thom explains below.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Hello Alpha-GATAs. I have supported GATA since the early 2000s. Over the years GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, GATA Secretary/Treasurer Chris Powell, and I have shared ideas, panel appearances, and even a drink or three.

I’d like you to join The Calandra Report community. It’s been going since 2011, and since 1998 for MarketWatch.com, which I co-founded.

Here’s a small biography:

https://thomcalandra.com/about-thom-calandra/

Here’s a subscription offer exclusively for GATA supporters, like the offer we made last year.

You get the twice-weekly private reports for one year for $169 — along with our TCR Collateral letters — and GATA will receive fully half of that amount: $85.

For your review Chris has posted here —

http://gata.org/files/CalandraReport-08-04-2019.pdf

— a recent edition of TCR, which covers the weeklong resources symposium just concluded in Vancouver.

To accept this offer and help GATA, please go here:

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=588…

And please feel free to e-mail me with testimonials, ideas, and names: thom@thomcalandra.com

Thank you from northern California!

— Thom Calandra

end

Bill Murphy interviewed by Silver Doctors and Murphy suggests there are two factions in the USA government:

1 the lower level guys who are out to get the blood of JPMorgan

2 the upper echelon who knows of the official sector rigging and these guys are backing off

(courtesy Bill Murphy/Silver Doctors)

Indictments for rigging suggest two factions in U.S. govt., GATA chairman says

 Section: 

8:04p ET Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, interviewed today by Paul Eberhart of Silver Doctors, speculated that the increasing indictments of JPMorganChase personnel for gold market rigging suggest that there are two factions in the U.S. government, one superintending the rigging and one fighting it.

… 

Murphy added that JPMorganChase CEO Jamie Dimon must have known about the market manipulation undertaken by the bank’s traders.

Murphy also said he believes that silver has become more sensitive than gold for those trying to suppress the monetary metals.

And why, Murphy wondered, is the Justice Department doing work that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission should be doing?

The interview is 25 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnT8h_67asM

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Pam and Russ Martens now wonder if Jamie Dimon will finally lose his job over these racketeering charges?  Will JPMorgan finally be punished for continual racketeering

an excellent commentary..

Russ and Pam Marten

(Wall Street on Parade)

Pam and Russ Martens: Will Jamie Dimon finally lose his job over racketeering charges?

 Section: 

9:54p ET Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Pam and Russ Martens of Wall Street on Parade today take note of the latest indictments at JPMorganChase & Co. and itemize the corruption and criminality of the investment bank under the chairmanship and chief executiveship of Jamie Dimon.

… 

The Martenses conclude: “If you’re a regular citizen on probation and you seriously break the law, you are highly likely to go back to jail. In the case of JPMorganChase, it has been a serial recidivist and yet its deferred prosecution agreements have not been rescinded by the U.S. Department of Justice. According to the latest indictments, the activity occurred up to August 2016, when the bank was already on probation for criminal felony charges.”

The commentary is headlined “Will Jamie Dimon Finally Lose His Job Over Racketeering Charges?” and it’s posted at Wall Street on Parade here:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/09/will-jamie-dimon-finally-lose-his…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

What a joke: regulators at the CFTC are expanding their already massive precious metals manipulation to other firms and other markets

(zerohedge)

Regulators Expand Already Massive Precious Metals Manipulation Probe To Other Markets

Just two days after the DOJ took the unprecedented step of designating the JPMorgan precious metals trading desk as a “criminal enterprise” using unusually aggressive language which reminded legal experts of indictments utilizing the RICO Act, and which hopefully ended years of precious metal manipulation by the group formerly headed by Blythe Masters, CNBC now reports that the probe is set to spread significantly as Federal prosecutors and regulators “are expanding their already aggressive investigations of fraudulent precious metals trades at J.P. Morgan Chase to other U.S. markets and financial firms.”

The inquiry into market manipulation of all kinds comes amid a spike in criminal prosecutions and civil actions in the past year involving so-called “spoofing” in the precious metals markets, which we now find had been taking place with reckless abandon for years at JPMorgan and virtually all other major banks.

The prosecutors broadened their investigation thanks to information received from traders questioned for spoofing-related charges, and as in most RICO cases, the information obtained from those traders has led to criminal charges against other individuals.

In short: what we for many years said was blatant manipulation of precious metals was precisely that, and now the participants in said manipulating cabal are being treated as a mafia syndicate by the DOJ.

 

The widening inquiry is being led by the Justice Department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission as they continue their pursuit of individuals and firms for manipulating U.S. markets.

The crackdown may result in one of the biggest conviction rings for the DOJ since the financial crisis, with CNBC adding that the scope of the investigations has grown to the point where the criminal fraud division of the Justice Department expects to add personnel to the existing team to assist with the investigations and prosecutions of cases.

According to CNBC source, prosecutors now have an easier time identifying suspected spoofing due to advancements in the way the Department collects and analyzes trade data internally. Of course, they could have merely come to this site any time between 2009 and 2018 and observed the countless cases of blatant intraday gold and silver manipulation/spoofing which we pointed out, week after week.

CNBC further adds that prosecutors are using information about suspected spoofing to collect additional evidence against a trader and, if warranted, question that trader about their own conduct and that of others. So far, the increased focus on spoofing has resulted in federal prosecutors bringing a total of 13 spoofing cases against 19 defendants in the past five years. Of those, eight have pleaded guilty, while seven are fighting the charges and awaiting trial.

Following the indictment of three J.P. Morgan precious metals traders on Monday, Assistant Attorney General Brian Benczkowski said that the Justice Department is not finished with its probes.

“Our investigation is ongoing, and we’re going to follow the facts wherever they lead whether it is across desks here or at any other bank or upwards into the financial institution,” Benczkowski said.

At the same time, CFTC, the commodity regulator, has also been enhancing its own data analytic capabilities to detect spoofing and other suspicious activity in the markets, which makes sense considering that in 2013 the same CFTC found absolutely no evidence of manipulation in the silver market.

Oops.

“Our goal is to build a really comprehensive data analytical capability — a complete set of data with the expertise to analyze all of it in each specific market so that we have a comprehensive ability to identify suspicious activity in any form it takes in any market it occurs in,” said the Director of the CFTC’s Enforcement Division James McDonald in an interview with CNBC.

McDonald used that knowledge when he moved to revamp the CFTC’s cooperation program. That effort has worked in tandem with the agency’s investment and development in data analytics.

“You can identify the person who executed the trade, but is there a supervisor or someone higher up the chain who may also have culpability?” McDonald said, explaining how to leverage data analysis with personal interviews of traders.

“It can be hard to go up the chain without having someone to tell you what is happening on the inside,” McDonald said.

We can only hope that this time the CFTC actually takes its job seriously, although at this point it is no longer lowly commercial traders who are manipulating gold but central bankers and the BIS itself, something we first reported years ago. We doubt regulators will go after central bankers with the same zeal they have been pursuing the small fish.

END

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0885/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0831   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 7.54 POINTS OR 0.25%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 36.12 POINTS OR 0.13%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 40.61 POINTS OR 0.18%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 98.46/Euro FALLS TO 1.1046

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.18/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.19/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.86 and Brent: 64.34

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.50%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.89% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.25%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.39: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.46

3k Gold at $1501.50 silver at: 17.86   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 16/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.29

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.19 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9956 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0997 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.50%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.77% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.24%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6783..

Frazzled Traders Fade Futures, Buy Bonds Ahead Of Repo Injection, Fed Decision

Soaring, then tumbling oil prices; soaring, then sliding repo rates; unprecedented factor volatility as crowded positions exploded – it sure has been quite a week headed into today’s Fed decision which quickly lost the top spot as the most market-moving event of the week amid a barrage of six sigma, exogenous shocks.

While everyone’s attention slowly turned to see how much the Fed would cut today, how Powell would justify easing even as the US economy is once again rebounding, and how the US central bank would respond to the unprecedented liquidity shortage in the repo market, traders were still on edge over this week’s record move in crude even as oil prices cooled further Wednesday after Saudi Arabia said full oil production would be restored by month’s end as it had already revived 41% of capacity. As a result, Brent futures dipped 0.28% to $64.34 a barrel, having conceded about 65% of its gains made after the weekend attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities.

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman on Tuesday sought to reassure markets, saying the kingdom would restore its lost oil production by month-end having recovered supplies to customers to the levels they were prior to weekend attacks. “I would think a spike in oil prices will likely prove to be short-term given that the global economy isn’t doing too well,” said Akira Takei, bond fund manager at Asset Management One.

Still, heightened geopolitical tensions underpinned oil as well as some safe-haven assets such as U.S. bonds. A U.S. official told Reuters on Tuesday the United States believes the attacks originated in southwestern Iran, an assessment that could further increase the rivalry between Tehran and Riyadh. Adding to uncertainties in the Middle East were exit polls from Israel’s election, which showed the race too close to call suggesting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s fight for political survival could drag on.

At the same time, now that the record barrage of investment grade issuance is finally over, as are hedging rate locks, bonds rallied globally while stocks struggled for traction ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision, as the dollar rose.

 

In equities, European stocks traded without direction, with the Stocks 600 index swinging from a loss to a modest gain, led by utilities and oil companies.

 

A similar drift was observed earlier, when Asian stocks traded little changed as investors awaited the Fed’s decision. Shares rose in China, but declined in Japan and Australia. The Topix dropped for the first time in nine days, ending its longest winning streak in almost two years. Electric appliance makers slid, with Sony Corp. being the biggest drag on the benchmark. Elsewhere, China’s Shanghai Composite Index gained as much as 0.6%, boosted by consumer stocks including Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd. and Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company Ltd. India’s Sensex gained as much as 0.6% as market fears of higher oil prices were assuaged on signs Saudi Arabia is restoring production. The U.S. central bank is broadly expected to cut rates by 25 basis points Wednesday.

S&P 500 Index nudged lower, once again hugging the 3,000 line as Fedex shares plunged in pre-market trading after the company slashed its profit outlook, blaming a global economy weakened by trade tensions.

Looking at today’s main event, in which Fed officials are widely expected to cut their benchmark rate by a quarter-point, some investors such as DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach are saying the central bank may also boost its balance sheet launching what we dubbed “QE Lite” to stabilize the volatile repo market. Traders also are keeping an eye on whether a potential oil shortage weighs on the global economy, and on preparations by the U.S. and China for top officials to meet on trade in October.

“Markets are currently almost pricing in three more rate cuts by the end of next year, including one by the end of this year, but the chances are that the Fed’s stance will be more hawkish than markets and we could see a rise in bond yields in the near term,” said Masahiko Loo, portfolio manager at Alliance Bernstein.

“Markets want to hear that the Fed is there if needed, the Fed is a backstop,” Alec Young, managing director for global markets research at FTSE Russell, told Bloomberg TV. “There is concern, obviously, from trade, manufacturing, and we’re seeing that bleed into some job-growth weakness, and these are all the big questions that Chairman Powell is going to be getting.”

Further complicating the Fed’s discussions, short-term U.S. interest rates shot up this week, with overnight repo rates rising to 7%, due largely to seasonal factors such as huge payments for taxes and bond supply. That prompted the New York Fed to conduct its first repo operation in more than a decade to inject funds to stressed money markets.

The New York Federal Reserve said late Tuesday it would conduct a repurchase agreement operation early on Wednesday “in order to help maintain the federal funds rate within the target range of” 2.00% to 2.25%. Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive of DoubleLine Capital, said on Tuesday that the repo market squeeze makes it more likely that the Federal Reserve will resume expansion of its balance sheet “pretty soon.”

In FX, the dollar gained against all peers, paring most of Tuesday’s losses, as money markets remained on edge and traders awaited Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision. The pound retreated from the almost two- month high reached Tuesday; the currency was hit by inflation data and increasing pessimism of the Brexit deal being reached before the Oct. 31 deadline. The Norwegian krone was at the center of attention in the G-10, given that it risks volatility around its central bank decision on Thursday. Sterling traded at $1.2483, down 0.1% so far on the day, having hit a two-month high of $1.2528 as investors reversed their bets against the currency on fear of a no-deal Brexit at the end of next month.

Gold was mostly flat at $1,502.10, while the 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield fell to 1.799%, compared with Friday’s 1-1/2-month high of 1.908% ahead of the Fed’s policy announcement on Wednesday.

Expected data include mortgage applications and housing starts. General Mills will report earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 3,003.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.08% to 389.66
  • MXAP down 0.1% to 158.87
  • MXAPJ up 0.06% to 511.04
  • Nikkei down 0.2% to 21,960.71
  • Topix down 0.5% to 1,606.62
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.1% to 26,754.12
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 2,985.66
  • Sensex up 0.3% to 36,576.19
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 6,681.59
  • Kospi up 0.4% to 2,070.73
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.2 bps to -0.496%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1053
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 7.7 bps to 0.581%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.9 bps to 0.267%
  • Brent futures down 1% to $63.91/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,501.66
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 98.41

Top Overnight Headlines from Bloomberg

  • The Fed bought $53.2 billion of U.S. securities on Tuesday to quell a liquidity squeeze, and said it would conduct another overnight repo operation of up to $75 billion Wednesday morning; the moves had markets reeling and underscored just how deep the structural problems in U.S. money markets have become
  • Under pressure from Wall Street and President Donald Trump, the Fed is widely expected to reduce interest rates, but its sharply divided policy panel may be reluctant to forecast further cuts
  • Saudi Arabia reassured anxious customers that crude exports will keep flowing as normal and its industry can recover quickly from the worst attack in its history; the kingdom restored about half of pre-attack capacity at the crucial Abqaiq facility
  • European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said the risk of a no-deal Brexit on Oct. 31 is now “palpable,” sparking a drop in the pound; he said the main sticking point continued to be the so-called backstop to avoid a hard Irish border and demanded that the U.K. provide its proposals for an alternative in written form as soon as possible
  • Benjamin Netanyahu’s gamble to hold elections for a second time this year backfired after a stunning deadlock left Israel rudderless and convulsed by a new wave of political turmoil

Asian equity markets traded tentatively following the cautious gains on Wall St amid positioning heading into a flurry of central bank activity including the FOMC decision where the Fed are expected to deliver a consecutive 25bps cut. ASX 200 (-0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.2%) were indecisive ahead of the looming risk events and with Australia subdued by losses in the energy sector after an aggressive pullback in oil prices due to reports Saudi oil output will return to normal levels quicker than initially anticipated, while the Japanese benchmark remained at the whim of a choppy currency amid somewhat inconclusive data which showed Exports contracted for a 9th consecutive month albeit at a narrower than expected decline. Hang Seng (-0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) conformed to the holding pattern seen across regional and global counterparts after the PBoC opted for a net neutral position in its liquidity operations and after President Trump reverted back to a blasé approach on US-China trade in which he suggested a deal could come soon, possibly before the 2020 election or after. Finally, 10yr JGBs initially continued to oscillate around the 154.00 level as the BoJ kick-started its 2-day policy meeting, although prices eventually gained traction after tripping stops through this week’s resistance levels and largely ignored the mostly weaker 20yr JGB auction results.

Top Asian News

  • An Army of Japanese Salarymen Is Rocking Global Currency Markets
  • Vietnam Becomes a Victim of Its Own Success in Trade War
  • Profiting From Trade War, China Fund Jumps 54% in First Year
  • London Trading More Rupee Than India Shows What Modi Needs to Do
  • Thai Court Rejects Petition Seeking to Disqualify Prime Minister

Major European bourses are flat (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%), following on from a tentative AsiaPac session, amid cautious trade ahead of this evening’s FOMC meeting. IBEX 35 (+0.2%) was mildly softer after the open, although has since turned around, amid more political uncertainty, after the King stated there was no candidate for a parliament investiture vote; meaning Spaniards will return to the polls in November for the fourth time in four years. In terms of sector performance; Energy (+0.4%) has managed to shrug off yesterday’s fall in oil prices, while Telecoms (u/c), Consumer Discretionary (-0.4%), Consumer Staples (-0.2%) and Industrials (-0.1%) are the laggards. Luxury names, including Richemont (-4.1%) and Swatch Group (-2.6%), are under pressure after UBS downgraded the sector, with downside in Moncler (-4.5%) exacerbated by cautious comments from the co.’s CEO, who expressed concern about the situation in Hong Kong. In the lead are utilities (+0.4%), with gains in EDF (+3.7%) helping to prop up the sector (the Co. reported weld issues in six reactor units relating to 16 steam generators but does not believe they pose a significant adverse effect now), while materials (+0.2%) and Tech (+0.4%) are also higher. In terms of other notable individual movers; Kingfisher (-2.4%) is lower after sales disappointed (GBP 6.0bln vs. Exp. GBP 6.02bln and like-for-like sales down 1.8%). Elsewhere, Wirecard (+3.1%) took a leg higher on the news that the co. has signed a strategic co-operation agreement with Japan’s Softbank. Finally, Beiersdorf (-1.0%) is under pressure after being downgraded at Goldman Sachs.

Top European News

  • U.K. Inflation Rate Falls to Lowest Since 2016 on Games, Clothes
  • Comcast’s Sky Moves Beyond BT’s Network in U.K. with Fiber Deal
  • Cobham’s $5 Billion Sale to Advent Sparks U.K. Security Probe
  • EDF Rises on Belief That Reactor Weld Issues Don’t Need Fixing

In FX, the DXY seems to have established a firm base above 98.000 and Fib support just above the big figure, partly due to weakness in the Greenback’s G10 counterparts, but also on the back of recent firmer than forecast US data/surveys, increased demand for short term Usd funds and a marked change in Fed rate expectations going into September’s policy meeting (odds between another 25bp hike and no change much closer to even from around 90% for +1/4 point only a few days ago). The index is currently just shy of 98.500 and considerably closer to nearest resistance (98.744 yesterday) than the aforementioned downside chart retracement level (98.034).

  • GBP/NZD/AUD – The major underperformers, with Cable already retreating after another 1.2500+ sortie and failure to sustain gains above the 100 DMA (1.2501) amidst relatively negative Brexit remarks from EU’s Barnier and Juncker, but then extending its pull-back through 1.2450 at one stage in wake of significantly softer than expected UK CPI on the eve of retail sales and the BoE rate convene. Meanwhile, the Kiwi is back under pressure alongside the Aussie after overnight releases showing a decline in Westpac’s LEI and mixed NZ Q2 current account metrics, with Nzd/Usd under 0.6350 again and Aud/Usd sub-0.6850. Note, Aud/Nzd is still pivoting 1.0800 following this week’s dovish RBA minutes and eyeing NZ Q2 GDP later today, while Aud/Usd appears capped by decent upside option expiry interest at 0.6860-65 (1 bn) and 0.6895-0.6900 (2.6 bn).
  • JPY/CAD/CHF/EUR – Also weaker against their US peer, albeit on a sliding scale as the Yen contains losses over the 108.00 mark with the aid of a narrower than anticipated Japanese trade gap and with expiries also in close proximity (1.1 bn at 108.25-40 and then 1 bn at 108.75 if Tuesday’s multi-week peak and 108.50 are breached) ahead of the FOMC and BoJ tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Loonie has regained some poise and traction having held just above 1.3300 yesterday to meander around 1.3250 awaiting some independent impetus from Canadian CPI in advance of the Fed. Elsewhere, the Franc remains anchored near 0.9950, but has weakened vs the Euro to 1.1000 into the SNB on Thursday even though the single currency has lost momentum against the Buck following another approach towards 1.1100. Indeed, Eur/Usd has pulled back below 1.1050 amidst downbeat commentary from ECB’s de Guindos and the headline pair may gravitate further given more downside option expiry interest compared to upside (1.6 bn at the 1.1000 strike and 1 bn between 1.1020-30 vs 1.7 bn from 1.1100 to 1.1115).
  • EM – The Rand is also awaiting the Fed before turning attention to tomorrow’s SARB meet, and Usd/Zar has largely taken in stride slightly firmer than forecast SA CPI ahead of retail sales within a 14.7080-6325 band, though mostly trading near the base.

In commodities, the crude complex is largely in consolidation mode ahead of key risk events (FOMC) amid a lack of fresh catalysts and following yesterday’s declines, triggered by news that Saudi oil output will return to normal levels faster than originally assumed; Energy Minister Abdulaziz said oil supply is fully back online and resumed as before after more than half the oil output was resumed in the past few days and that it will keep full oil supply to its customers this month. Losses were later exacerbated by a surprise build in API inventories. Brent Nov’19 futures sit just above the USD 64/bbl handle, just above yesterday’s USD 63.50/bbl lows, with WTI similarly lacklustre just above the USD 59.0/bbl mark. In terms of geopolitical developments, the pace appears to have slowed somewhat; the Trump administration is reportedly considering a range of options to retaliate against Iran including cyberattack or physical strike on Iran’s oil facilities or Revolutionary Guards assets, meanwhile, the Saudis continue to point the finger at Iran, who have doubled down in denial. Looking ahead, IEA Birol will conduct a press conference today at 14.00BST alongside a press conference from the Saudis who are expected to show evidence of Iran’s involvement and that Iranian weapons were used in Aramco attacks. Separately, lacklustre trade in the metals complex reflects cautious sentiment, with gold holding on to the USD 1500/oz level for now and copper a touch lower.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 2.0%
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.25m, prior 1.19m; Housing Starts MoM, est. 4.95%, prior -4.0%
  • 8:30am: Building Permits, est. 1.3m, prior 1.34m; Building Permits MoM, est. -1.29%, prior 8.4%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I write this from Paris this morning but there’s only one place to start and that’s in Washington ahead of the Fed meeting this evening. Not long ago this FOMC was perhaps gearing up to be closer to a 50/50 call between a 25bp or 50bp cut however the latter looks a lot less likely now with markets only pricing in about a 15% chance of that happening. That fits with the view of our US economists who also expect a 25bp cut which mirrors the consensus.

The bigger focus will be on what the Fed signals about the expected policy trajectory in the coming months. Our US economists note that a continued dovish bias should be evident in the statement language, Summary of Economic Projections and Chair Powell’s press conference. The latter in particular should echo the narrative that, while the baseline outlook for the economy remains favorable, officials are attuned to significant risks emanating from softer global growth and elevated trade uncertainty. As in July, Powell should stop short of detailing the likelihood and timing of any future actions, but the signal should be that the bar is set relatively low for further rate reductions with the Committee intent to “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion”.

Our colleagues do not expect the September rate cut to be the last of this cycle though. With accumulating evidence that the economy is slowing amid greater sensitivity to the trade turmoil, they recently adjusted their call to reflect a further cumulative 75bps of rate cuts after this meeting, specifically at the October, December and January get togethers. All eyes on 7pm BST/2pm EST.

In an ideal world the Fed was probably hoping that markets would go into today in a relative state of calm however the mini sell-off across bond markets over the last couple of weeks and the biggest daily climb for oil in over a decade put an end to that. You can also add panic in the US funding market to that list after the overnight repo rate touched as high as 10% intraday yesterday and one of the highest levels on record. Notwithstanding a technical delay, the NY Fed did move to calm the market by conducting an overnight repo operation – the first in a decade – for $53bn which helped to push the rate back down however another operation is planned for today for up to $75bn.

There appeared to be various schools of thought on what caused the explosion in overnight funding rates with bulging treasury supply, a mismatch of cash liquidity tax payments, regulatory constraints, bloated dealer sheets, banking seasonals and investors selling bonds back to dealers all cited as possible reasons. We remained confused about the real cause!! Whatever created the tensions it’s not gone unnoticed that we’ve had two huge moves in different asset classes this week, in addition to the rates’ selloff of the prior two weeks.

Just on oil, WTI and Brent both sold-off around 6% yesterday – and thus gave up about half of Monday’s gains – after Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia is supposedly close to restarting 70% of the lost oil production following the weekend attack. The same story also suggested that output would be fully back online in the next couple of weeks, citing a “top Saudi source”. The Kingdom later confirmed that they will ensure this month’s supply by drawing on reserves. Aramco’s CEO also confirmed that the Abaqiq facility should be back to pre-attack levels of output by the end of September. Gasoline (-7.73%) and Heating Oil (-9.42%) also fell in tow however the end result for equities was fairly muted. Indeed the S&P 500 ended +0.26% while the DOW and NASDAQ ended +0.13% and +0.40% respectively. This was after the STOXX 600 had closed -0.05%. After the US bell, trade bellwether FedEx cut its 2020 profit outlook on a weaker global economy and trade tensions. The shares were down as much as 10% in after-hours trading potentially wiping out gains for the year.

Meanwhile US HY credit spreads finished little changed with energy spreads 4bps wider. As for bonds, 10y Treasuries finished -4.5bps lower with the 2s10s curve flattening 1bp to +7.2bps, while Bunds finished little changed. It was BTPs (+7.9bps) which stood out the most in Europe though following (an albeit expected) confirmation of the news we discussed yesterday morning that former PM Renzi was leaving the PD to form his own party, further complicating the political stability picture in Italy.

This morning in Asia, with the exception of Japan where the Nikkei (-0.13%) is a touch lower, most bourses are flat to slightly higher ahead of the Fed. That’s the case for the Hang Seng (+0.03%), Shanghai Comp (+0.39%) and Kospi (+0.44%). The yen is slightly weaker, following weak trade export data in Japan this morning (albeit not as weak as expected), and the news yesterday that South Korea had removed Japan from its list of most trusted trading partners.

In terms of the data yesterday, in the US the August industrial production print surprised to the upside at +0.6% mom (vs. +0.2% expected), as did manufacturing production (+0.5% mom vs. +0.2% expected). Given that Powell has previously flagged concerns about the manufacturing sector, this was a modest positive. The only other data release in the US was the September NAHB housing market index which rose 1pt to 68.

In Europe the only data worth noting was the September ZEW survey in Germany where the expectations component improved over 21pts to -22.5 (vs. -37.8 expected). That being said the current situation component did weaken over 6pts to -19.9 (vs. -15.0 expected). So a mixed survey.

In other news, it is worth flagging the unveiling of plans for a Dutch national investment fund for the economy. Finance Minister Hoekstra said in the budget that “we are going to investigate the possibilities for further investment in areas such as innovation, knowledge development and infrastructure” with details expected to be presented to parliament in early 2020. Various media reports in Holland suggested that the fund could be as much as €50bn (about 6% of GDP). As Mark Wall noted yesterday, this isn’t just a sign of follow through on Draghi’s plea for fiscal easing by those member states that can most afford it. With a public debt ratio close to 50% of GDP and a current account surplus of nearly 10%, the Netherlands would fit the bill. What’s more striking is that the Netherlands is one of the most fiscally conservative members of the Eurozone. So this could well put more pressure on Germany. Certainly one to watch.

Speaking of which, yesterday our economists in Germany published a report titled “A new ‘fiscal deal’ in Germany”. They note that there is talk that the climate package announced this Friday might amount to €40bn (until 2023 cumulatively). Technically, this might not be all additional spending but could also include higher climate related taxes and levies (possibly, it also includes expenditure items already earmarked elsewhere). Finally, implementation lags and bottlenecks lead the team to expect that expenditures will rise over time resulting in an amount likely below €10bn (at best 1/4 pp of GDP) for 2020. See their report here .

Looking at the day ahead, needless to say that all the focus will be on the Fed this evening. As for data, this morning the data includes August new car registrations for the Euro Area and final August CPI revisions for the UK and Euro Area. In the US the focus will be on the latest housing market data with August building permits and housing starts due. Away from that French President Macron is due to meet Italy’s Conte.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.54 POINTS OR 0.25%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 36.12 POINTS OR 0.13%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 40.61 POINTS OR 0.18%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .15%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0885 /Oil UP TO 58.86 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.34 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0885 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0831 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Zero hedge outlines what comes next in this time line

(zerohedge)

Brexit: The Endgame?

With parliament suspended and the UK’s EU withdrawal process in enforced stasis, the next major stop on the Brexit road map is the EU summit in Brussels on 17 and 18 October. As we have become accustomed, no one knows what will happen now.

This flowchart though, based on analysis by The Independent’s John Rentoul, runs through the most likely scenarios, starting first with the question of whether the meeting bears fruit in the form of a new Brexit deal.

As Statista’s Martin Armstrong explainsthe quickest, but let’s face it, most unlikely outcome, would be a new deal which gets approved by parliament, leading to the UK leaving the EU on the current Article 50 deadline of 31 October.

Going further down the Brexit rabbit hole, we could also see Boris Johnson refusing to request an extension and resigning, the Queen appointing Jeremy Corbyn to sort the mess out, only for a vote of no confidence motion to pass, placing the Father of the House, Ken Clarke, in temporary charge, leading to an Article 50 extension, a general election, and a possible second referendum in 2020.

 

Take a deep breath…

Infographic: Brexit: Endgame? | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/BILL BROWDER/MAGNITSKY

A court has finally revealed the truth behind the Magnitsky affair.  We now know that Magnitsky was complicit with Bill Browder as they stole vast sums of money from the young Russia (under Yeltsin). No doubt Magnitsky was murdered under the orders of Bill Browder as he knew too much

a good read..

(Craig Murray)

 

Authored by Craig Murray,

The conscientious judges of the European Court of Human Rights published a judgement a fortnight ago which utterly exploded the version of events promulgated by Western governments and media in the case of the late Mr Magnitsky.

Yet I can find no truthful report of the judgement in the mainstream media at all.

The myth is that Magnitsky was an honest rights campaigner and accountant who discovered corruption by Russian officials and threatened to expose it, and was consequently imprisoned on false charges and then tortured and killed. A campaign over his death was led by his former business partner, hedge fund manager Bill Browder, who wanted massive compensation for Russian assets allegedly swindled from their venture. The campaign led to the passing of the Magnitskiy Act in the United States, providing powers for sanctioning individuals responsible for human rights abuses, and also led to matching sanctions being developed by the EU.

However the European Court of Human Rights has found, in judging a case brought against Russia by the Magnitskiy family, that the very essence of this story is untrue.

They find that there was credible evidence that Magnitsky was indeed engaged in tax fraud, in conspiracy with Browder, and he was rightfully charged. The ECHR also found there was credible evidence that Magnitsky was indeed a flight risk so he was rightfully detained. And most crucially of all, they find that there was credible evidence of tax fraud by Magnitsky and action by the authorities “years” before he started to make counter-accusations of corruption against officials investigating his case.

This judgement utterly explodes the accepted narrative, and does it very succinctly:

The applicants argued that Mr Magnitsky’s arrest had not been based on a reasonable suspicion of a
crime and that the authorities had lacked impartiality as they had actually wanted to force him to
retract his allegations of corruption by State officials. The Government argued that there had been
ample evidence of tax evasion and that Mr Magnitsky had been a flight risk.

The Court reiterated the general principles on arbitrary detention, which could arise if the
authorities had complied with the letter of the law but had acted with bad faith or deception. It
found no such elements in this case: the enquiry into alleged tax evasion which had led to
Mr Magnitsky’s arrest had begun long before he had complained of fraud by officials.
 The decision
to arrest him had only been made after investigators had learned that he had previously applied for
a UK visa, had booked tickets to Kyiv, and had not been residing at his registered address.

Furthermore, the evidence against him, including witness testimony, had been enough to satisfy an
objective observer that he might have committed the offence in question
. The list of reasons given
by the domestic court to justify his subsequent detention had been specific and sufficiently detailed.

The Court thus rejected the applicants’ complaint about Mr Magnitsky’s arrest and subsequent
detention as being manifestly ill-founded.

“Manifestly ill founded”.

The mainstream media ran reams of reporting about the Magnitsky case at the time of the passing of the Magnitsky Act. I am offering a bottle of Lagavulin to anybody who can find me an honest and fair MSM report of this judgement reflecting that the whole story was built on lies.

Magnitskiy did not uncover corruption then get arrested on false charges of tax evasion. He was arrested on credible charges of tax evasion, and subsequently started alleging corruption. That does not mean his accusations were unfounded. It does however cast his arrest in a very different light.

Where the Court did find in favour of Magnitsky’s family is that he had been deprived of sufficient medical attention and subject to brutality while in jail. I have no doubt this is true. Conditions in Russian jails are a disgrace, as is the entire Russian criminal justice system. There are few fair trials and conviction rates remain well over 90% – the judges assume that if you are being prosecuted, the state wants you locked up, and they comply. This is one of many areas where the Putin era will be seen in retrospect as lacking in meaningful and needed domestic reform. Sadly what happened to Magnitsky on remand was not special mistreatment. It is what happens in Russian prisons. The Court also found subsequent Magnitsky’s conviction for tax evasion was unsafe, but only on the (excellent) grounds that it was wrong to convict him posthumously.

The first use of the Magnitsky Act was to sanction those subject to Browder’s vendetta in his attempts to regain control of vast fortunes in Russian assets. But you may be surprised to hear I do not object to the legislation, which in principle is a good thing – although the chances of Western governments bringing sanctions to bear on the worst human rights abusers are of course minimal. Do not expect it to be used against Saudi Arabia, Bahrain or Israel any time soon.

*  *  *

Unlike his adversaries including the Integrity Initiative, the 77th Brigade, Bellingcat, the Atlantic Council and hundreds of other warmongering propaganda operations, Craig’s blog has no source of state, corporate or institutional finance whatsoever. It runs entirely on voluntary subscriptions from its readers – many of whom do not necessarily agree with the every article, but welcome the alternative voice, insider information and debate. Subscriptions to keep Craig’s blog going are gratefully received.

END
SAUDI ARABIA/IRAN/USA
Saudi Arabia now says that it has material evidence tying Iran to the attack n Aramco
(zerohedge)

Saudi Arabia Says It Has “Material Evidence” Tying Iran To Aramco Attack

Saudi Arabia revealed yesterday that, contrary to its initial estimates, Aramco should be able to restore oil production to 100% capacity by the end of the month. And on Wednesday morning, the kingdom’s Defense Ministry said it was planning a press conference to present “material evidence” purportedly linking Tehran to the unprecedented attack on the Kingdom’s oil infrastructure.

The country’s defense ministry will hold a news conference later in the day laying out new evidence. This follows reports from the US claiming that the roughly 20 missiles and drones used in the attack had been traced back to a ‘launch site’ in southern Iran.

Tehran has denied involvement in the Sept. 14 attacks, while the Houthi rebels in nearby Yemen have claimed credit. But Washington and Riyadh have adamantly blamed Iran, whom they have blamed for several ‘attacks’ in the region since the start of the year.

 

Of course, this attack would represent a serious escalation from the tanker bombings and the downing of an American drone. Some have speculated that Tehran has nothing to gain from attacks like this, which only serves to provoke the West and Saudi Arabia. The Houthis have carried out several attacks within Saudi Arabia, including the bombing of an airport earlier this year, but experts say the precision of the attack on Aramco’s Abqaiq plant was far more sophisticated than anything the armed movement has ever pulled off. Experts said cruise missiles were likely used to target critical components of the oil complex.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and several senior US officials are heading to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, as are several UN experts responsible for monitoring sanctions on Iran and Yemen, and another team of investigators that will report to the Security Council, according to Reuters.

The Defense Ministry’s news conference will begin Wednesday at 10:30 am ET.

The Saudi Defense Ministry said it will hold a news conference on Wednesday at 1430 GMT to present “material evidence and Iranian weapons proving the Iranian regime’s involvement in the terrorist attack.” Riyadh has already said preliminary results showed the attack did not come from Yemen.

The Iranian leadership infamously threatened that if they couldn’t export crude oil, “no one would” shortly after Washington ended waivers for countries reliant on Iranian oil. The Iranian leadership has ruled out meeting with President Trump, arguing that this would only validate the administration’s strategy of maximum pressure.

Other countries, including Japan, have said they haven’t seen any intelligence linking the attacks to Iran. But that hasn’t deterred one senior US official from asking the UN Security Council to respond.

Several senior officials in the Trump Administration assured Reuters that the Saudi investigation would yield “compelling forensic evidence” showing the location of the attack’s origins.

Trump said Monday that there was “no rush” to retaliate, and that the US was working closely with Gulf states and its European allies. But the US and Saudi Arabia are pushing Iran to stop providing financial assistance to groups like the Houthis, who retain control of most of the territory in Yemen, despite years of fighting with supporters of the ousted government, which has Saudi Arabia’s backing.

END
Saudi Arabia/Iran
the evidence is revealed and it unquestionably reveals that the missiles came from the North, most likely from Iranian held territory in Iraq.
(zerohedge)

Saudis Reveal ‘Evidence’ Attacks “Unquestionably Sponsored” By Iran With Drone & Missile Debris

Though it appears President Trump has already signaled that war with Iran has been averted for now, instead opting to kick the can further down the road with a just announced measure to “substantially increase” sanctions on the Islamic Republic, Saudi Arabia has unveiled the long awaited “evidence” of Iran’s alleged involvement in the Aramco attacks.

 

Wednesday’s Saudi Defense Ministry press conference showcasing the “evidence” of Iran’s involvement. 

On Wednesday the Saudi Defense Ministry held a press conference showing the debris gathered from the weapons used in the twin attacks on the Aramco facilities early Saturday, which Riyadh has indicated involved a mix of missiles and drones.

Showcased among the debris can be seen what looks like a ballistic missile, among multiple smaller drones, including according to the statements:

 

  • 18 delta winged UAV + 7 cruise missiles fired
  • direction of flight + range indicate attacks did not originate from Yemen, but from the north;
  • sophistication of weapons included GPS guidance giving high accuracy.

Laid out on the tables at the press event were what appeared to be sophisticated small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), which a Saudi spokesman said “unquestionably” had Iranian state sponsorship.

Meanwhile oil is rising sharply on news of the Saudi official allegations of Iran’s “unquestionable” role in the devastating attacks:

The defense ministry spokesman further said the UAVs came from the north to the south, suggesting attack origins from Iranian soil, which contradicts accounts in a prior WSJ report which said no UAVs were spotted crossing the border.

However, some analysts were quick to point out that the Saudi spokesman stopped short of any direct statements alleging the attacks originated from within Iran or that the IRGC Quds force was behind it.

Steve Herman

@W7VOA

Remains of the missiles which says were used to attack an @Saudi_Aramco facility displayed during a news conference in Riyadh. (@REUTERS photo by Hamad I Mohammed)

View image on Twitter

Notably, the Saudi spokesman said that Aramco attacks “could not have been launched from Yemen” but didn’t name precisely where they were launched from.

Yemen’s Houthis have been unwavering in their insistence that they conducted the attack with ten drones; however, if the cruise missile debris was in fact part of the attack this could contradict the claims of an exclusively Houthi operation.

Chris Hayes

@chrislhayes

“sponsored” by Iran and “came from Iran” seem quite different https://twitter.com/StratSentinel/status/1174335766417346566 

Strategic Sentinel

@StratSentinel

Replying to @StratSentinel

Saudi spokesman says attack was “unquestionably sponsored” by #Iran

If this is indeed the sum total of “evidence” of Iranian involvement, this whole crisis week of escalation could fizzle down to a low simmer instead of the massive bang that many were expecting in the gulf.

Khalid bin Salman خالد بن سلمان

@kbsalsaud

President Trump’s Administration has confronted the Iranian regime’s and terrorist organizations aggression in an unprecedented way – we in KSA thank the President for his stance, we will continue to stand with the USA against the forces of evil and senseless aggression.

Of course, the elephant in the room at the press conference remains the question of why the kingdom’s advanced US-supplied anti air defenses were apparently incapable of intercepting the inbound projectiles and UAVs?

 

END

Iran/USA

Trump does not want war.  He feels he could get better mileage with more increased sanctions. The country of Iran is bankrupt.

(zerohedge)

War Averted? Trump Announces New Iran Sanctions Instead

It appears oil markets just heard that one – since the early Saturday attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities talk of war has been on the table, especially given President Trump’s initial “locked and loaded” threat – however it now seems certain there will be no war, given the president has announced new sanctions. 

“I have just instructed the Secretary of the Treasury to substantially increase Sanctions on the country of Iran!” Trump tweeted Wednesday morning.

The president’s announcement of new sanctions are the clearest indicator yet he’s holding onto alternatives to war, which immediately sent oil prices retreating further, following Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman’s Tuesday announcement saying production capabilities were fully restored and that the kingdom’s oil output is expected back at pre-attack levels by the end of the month, whereupon oil had tumbled as much as 7% based on that prior assurance.

 

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I have just instructed the Secretary of the Treasury to substantially increase Sanctions on the country of Iran!

This comes even after Tuesday night into early Wednesday both Tehran and Washington were still trading threats, with Iran warning it will “respond” against any steps against it.

end

 

Mike Pompeo declares that the attack was an act of war.

(zerohedge)

Aramco Attacks An “Act Of War” By Iran: Pompeo After Arriving In Jeddah

What’s the end game here? Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has just arrived in Jeddah for talks with Saudi leaders over a response to the weekend attacks on two of the kingdom’s major oil facilities.

After a prior press conference by the Saudi Defense Ministry where it for the first time assigned public blame on Iran for the attacks which initially knocked out half of the kingdom’s daily oil output, saying the air attacks “unquestionably” had Iranian state sponsorship, Pompeo has announced the Aramco attacks constitute an “act of war” by Iran.

Anna Ahronheim

@AAhronheim

: US Secretary of State Pompeo while in : attacks an ‘act of war’ by

View image on Twitter

And President Trump himself said Wednesday from the White House that it looks like Iran did it but that he still hopes to avoid war.

He announced via a statement on Twitter that, “I have just instructed the Secretary of the Treasury to substantially increase Sanctions on the country of Iran!” — in what appears an alternative to launching a military response.

“I’m not looking to get into new conflict, but sometimes you have to,” Trump told reporters Wednesday.

Pompeo’s new “act of war” declaration indeed takes the potential for escalation right back to boiling point.

Pompeo is in Jeddah where he’s expected to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to evaluate a possible response and to “coordinate efforts to counter Iranian aggression in the region,” according to a State Department statement.

“We were blessed that there were no Americans killed in this attack but any time you have an act of war of this nature, there’s always risk that that could happen,” Pompeo said“This is an attack of a scale we’ve just not seen before,” he added later speaking to reporters off-camera just before landing in Jeddah.

Meanwhile, if the ‘military option’ is being considered, it appears we could be in the beginning phases of an international coalition response. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced he and Trump held a phone call to discuss the need for a “united diplomatic response from international partners” after the Aramco attacks.

 

Wednesday’s Saudi Def. Ministry press briefing showcasing missile and drone debris alleged “evidence” the Iranians were behind attack. 

The fact that Johnson’s statement included the word “diplomatic” – along with Trump’s emphasis on extending stronger sanctions – is a good sign however, that the White House is not prepping for war.

Below is the transcript of Pompeo’s statements where he described “an Iranian attack” that was an “act of war” via CNN:

* * *

He said US intelligence has “high confidence” the Houthis do not possess the advanced weapons used in the attacks and that the operation originated in Iran:

“As for how we know, the equipment used is unknown to be in the Houthi arsenal,” he said. “These line attack cruise missiles we have never seen there and we think we’ve seen most everything. So the intelligence community has high confidence that these were not weapons that would have been in the possession of the Houthis. That’s probably the most important piece of information.”

“We also know that these are systems that the Iranians have not deployed anyplace else, that they have not deployed outside of their country to the best of our knowledge. We’ve not seen them deploy these types of UAV systems with the kinds of ranges and capabilities nor have we seen them place these missiles where they could have done it. We’ve seen no evidence that it came from Iraq. It could have well have traveled over Kuwait — we’ve not seen that,” Pompeo said.

He called the Houthis “liars” and emphasized they are not independent from Iran but should be viewed as Tehran’s direct proxy:

“Whenever you report about them, and you say, ‘The Houthis said,’ you should say ‘The well known frequently lying Houthis have said the following.’ This is important because you ought not report them as if these truth-tellers, as if these are people who aren’t completely under the boot of the Iranians and who would not, at the direction of the Iranians, lay claim to attacks that they did not engage in. Which clearly was the case here,” Pompeo said. “So there you go, whenever you say Houthis, you should begin with, ‘the well-known, frequently known to lie Houthis,’ and then you can write whatever it is they say. And that’d be good reporting (laughter) and I know you care deeply about that good reporting.”

end
TURKEY
Erdogan wants to create a refugee city of the border with Turkey and to act as a buffer.  If he does not get this he will flood Greece with 1 million migrants
(AlmasdarNews)

Erdogan Wants To Create ‘Refugee City’ After Threatening To Flood Europe With 1M Syrians

Via AlmasdarNews.com,

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced after the first meeting at the Ankara peace talks that his country will not allow terrorists to appear in the area created on the border with Syria; instead, he has proposed to turn it into a refugee city.

“For the refugees there (on the Syrian border), it is necessary to create a city for them to participate in agriculture. I explained to my colleagues that it is necessary to build infrastructure for them,” Erdogan said.

 

Syrian refugees in Turkey. Image source: The New York Times

“It is necessary to prevent the formation of a terrorist corridor,” the Turkish president said after talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in Ankara on Monday.

The Turkish capital Ankara on Monday hosted the tripartite summit of the guarantors of the Astana process (Russia, Turkey and Iran) on the Syrian settlement.

During the meeting on Monday, the three presidents agreed to establish a constitutional committee to resolve future political disputes.

Balkan Insight@BalkanInsight

With refugees from Syria used in a negotiating tug-of-war between Turkey and the EU, the Balkan region might have to carry the brunt of any large numbers of people on the move trying to reach safety in Western Europe:http://ow.ly/d7vp50wcZfe

Syrian Refugees a Bargaining Chip for Turkey’s Erdogan | Balkan Insight

Turkey says it cannot cope with the burden of more than four million refugees, but a threat to open its borders should be seen in the broader context of the Syrian war, Turkish-EU relations and…

balkaninsight.com

Furthermore, the three presidents discussed the future of the Idlib Governorate, but no official agreement was made to resolve their differences.

* * *

 

Syrian refugees in a Turkish camp. Image source: AP

Erdogan’s “refugee city” idea comes after earlier this month he issued a ‘with us or against us’ ultimatum to the world, promising that if he couldn’t have his Syria ‘safe zone’ (read: land grab to ethnically cleanse Syrian Kurds), he would flood Europe with one million refugees in response:

You either support us to have a safe zone in Syria, or we will have to open the gates. Either you support us or no one should feel sorry. We would like to host 1 million refugees in the safe zone,” he said at the time.

It remains unclear, however, whether the so-called refugee city would be on Turkish soil or “newly acquired” Syrian territory occupied by the Turkish Army. Mostly likely in Erdogan’s mind it would be the former.

 END

6.Global Issues

 

Bill Blain wakes up this morning and states that something is wrong.  Find out what is bothering him

(Bill Blain)

Blain: “Something Is Happening, And We Don’t Know What It Is”

Blain’s Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain

Why so Calm?

Even as the Fed meeting pondered raising rates by a smidge, it had to intervene to pump money into the short-term US financial system for the first time since the 2008 crisis.  That’s a clear sign of financial dislocation – but markets seem utterly unconcerned.  (The wires all quote issues such as tax payments and an imbalance between new funding and low redemptions to explain the sudden lack of cash, but none of my money market chums are convinced. They fear something else, a big No-See-Em is underway.)

The last crisis started in money markets.  Add that to the ongoing WTF-happened questions about the Saudi bombings, and there seems to be a curious sense of false calm in markets.  No vol, no concern, and gold hardly moving.  I can’t help but think of ducks; serenely floating upstream while their legs are furiously paddling below the surface.  Something is happening, and we don’t know what it is.

Since I don’t know either, today is the day to take a pop at the Green Puritan movement: 

There is a great comment from Bill Gates in the FT – Fossil fuel divestment has “zero” climate impact, says Bill Gates.  Worth a read, and maybe get yourself thinking about what damage ESG/Green group-think nonsense is doing? Its distorting the global economy and voiding perfectly sane investment strategies. As regular readers will know, I absolutely believe Climate Change is The Big Threat – but I’m more and more convinced that much of the ESG / Green Investment bandwagon is utter bollchocks!

We are not going to solve Climate Change by going back to the Stone Age.  It will require technological solutions.  Yet, a whole green investment industry of advisors, influencers, and whatever the financial equivalent of an Instragram is, have taken over the agenda.  They’ve become the market equivalent of whinny millennials, brutally offended by everything, but failing to realise how much they offend us and hold back solutions.  They are fleas looking to feast.  Every time I read some b*llsh*t about a wonderful and insightful Green Bond conference I reach for the barf bag.  The organisers are fleas biting into bigger fleas.

The Gates article hits it squarely.  Divesting from the oil majors will not change the world.  Changing the world will change the world – Doh!  And the best way to do that is to get everyone on the same side – understanding the problems and the costs of solving it.

Let me give you an example:  we all accept renewable energies are critical to replace fossil fuels pumping Co2 into the atmosphere.  It makes perfect sense to replace dirty coal fired power stations with sustainable solar, hydro and wind power (and I hope tidal soon).

But building a new Wind Generator, or an array of solar cells, or the turbines for a hydro scheme, requires high-grade steel.  Steel is a wonderful material – you can recycle and reuse it. But you also need Carbon, from coking coal, to make it.  A typical off-shore wind generator requires 250 tonnes of Met Coal to make. It’s a 1.8 bln tonne per annum market, and it’s in increasingly short supply.  It’s known in the business as metallurgical coal – because that’s what its used for.  Met Coal is a high value, clean commodity – but can you fund it?

Nope.

That’s because most fund managers have got ESG and Green guidelines that start and end with Coal is evil.  They don’t want to propose it to investment committees as they might reject it for “reputational risk” reasons.  As a result its bundled alongside dirty coal and cannibalism as too difficult to fund – meaning any smart investor should be taking notes on the basis Met Coal investments are cheap and rewarding.  Making them attractive is a more difficult matter – but it has to happen.

And yes – I am working on such difficult deals. If your investment committee hasn’t already been taken over by the ESG pod-people or Green Puritans activists, and you want to make proper returns from real assets that are good for the planet – then give me a call…

Repeat the same exercise on anything that might be a wee bit polluting, environmentally challenging, squishes a few crested newts while saving the rest, and you rule out loads of perfectly good investments that are likely to be as environmentally sound as anything the Green lobby sticks a Green Finance label on.

If the default scenario is don’t do it – then we are missing opportunities.  The right way to save the planet is to mitigate, solve, fund and finance things in such a way the environment is protected, the climate improved and things to solve the crisis get made.  I believe Greta Thunberg is absolutely on the right track. It’s not her I’m mocking… it’s the lack of bravery by investment managers to do right thing in the face of misguided and ill-informed environmental populism led by Green Puritans!

If you want a decent omelette – you need to crack a few eggs.

Softbank going Flaccid?

Back on Planet reality…  I’m struggling to find the time to do more in-depth digging on Softbank, but I’m more and more convinced we’re looking at a massive negative feedback loop.  I won’t say its headed into a death-spiral.. (for that might get me a wrist-slapping), so I’ll let you draw your own conclusions.

What we do know is Softbank’s strategy of investing in disruptive tech to bring them to IPO is  creaking.  The plan looked brilliant – hype up disruptive tech opportunities and rewards, ignore the lack of profitability, talk up their own expertise to spot and fund opportunities, then pile millions into start-ups and reap billions from the ones it could quickly bring to market.  It worked as long as hype preceded reality.  Reality caught up as it became clear disruptive technologies are only unicorns if they work, are uniquely monopolistic and catch money.  The ride-hailing market is awash with competitors.  Streaming is something everyone wants a piece of.

The critical point is Softbank valued WeWork at nearly $50 bln a few weeks ago.  Or think about it this way.  Softbank pumped $100 bln into Tech Start Ups, creating its own market in its own holdings.  What are they really worth?

Uber was a wake up moment.  The embarrassment of the We-Work failed IPO demonstrates how far off kilter they now are.  As a strategy, Tech Disruptive Hype has had its time.  Sure, there are more Unicorns that will likely become multi-billion businesses to be snapped up, but how many has SoftBank got on its books?  How much less hyped will prices be?  How much less when you strip out Softbank and other Tech funds making their own prices on their own investments?

Softbank’s investors sound unhappy.  Backers of Vision Fund 2 are pulling out.  It’s clear the Saudi SWF Public Investment Fund and Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala are not best pleased. They invested $60bln into the $100bln fund.  How much have they made?  And will firms like Apple really want to put money into Vision 2 as the model creaks from the We-Work catastrophe?

Next couple of weeks are going to be very interesting.  I’ll stick to my earlier thesis WeWork would be the IPO to break the Tech craze, but now I think it could bring down Softbank as well..

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil continues to rise despite bigger than expected crude build. The geopolitical landscape is calling for increased oil prices

(zerohedge)

Oil Algos Confused Despite Bigger Than Expected Crude Build

WTI has extended losses overnight following API’s surprise crude build and President Trump appearing to ease off the war rhetoric and Aramco’s words have eased market fears.

“Saudi Aramco has so far shown great crisis-management skills and great resilience, keeping operations ongoing in the attacks’ aftermath and quickly mobilizing recovery and repair crews,” said Samuel Ciszuk, founding partner of consultants ELS Analysis in Stockholm.

However, inventories remain a key barometer.

 

API

  • Crude +592k (-2.5mm exp)
  • Cushing -846k
  • Gasoline +1.6mm (-500k exp)
  • Distillates +2.00mm (+500k exp)

DOE

  • Crude +1.06mm (-2.5mm exp)
  • Cushing -647k
  • Gasoline +781k (-500k exp)
  • Distillates =437k (+500k exp)

A surprise crude build last night from API was confirmed by DOE data which indicated a bigger build of 1.06mm barrels (along with builds in gasoline and distillates stocks)…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude production remains near record highs despite the ongoing decline in rig counts

Source: Bloomberg

WTI hovered just above $58.00 ahead of the DOE data – well down from the pre-API levels – but algos were confused on the DOE data’s bigger build…

Finally, we note that Bloomberg Intelligence’s Senior Energy Analyst Vince Piazza points out that:

The attack on the Saudi installations will push oil-market fundamentals to the back seat, allowing the elevated geopolitical risk to support crude prices. While retaliation is likely, a military intervention that drags allies into a broader conflict is less certain. Still, with key infrastructure now a target of terrorism, we believe a stronger risk premium on global benchmarks is warranted, even with the threat of a slowing global economy.

Uncertainty in the oil market is the highest we’ve seen since the Sept. 11 attacks in 2001.

END

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1046 DOWN .0030 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.19 UP 0.097 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2445   DOWN   0.0056  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3259 UP .00017 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 7.54 POINTS OR 0.25% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 36.12 POINTS OR 0.13%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,15%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 36.12 POINTS OR 0.13%

 

 

/Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 7.54 POINTS OR 0.25% 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 15% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 40.61  POINTS OR 0.18%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1501.40

silver:$17.85-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.77% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.24 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 98.46 DOWN 20 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.24% DOWN 7 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.18%  DOWN 3   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.23%//DOWN 6 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.88 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 65 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.51% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.87% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1046  DOWN     .0030 or 30 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.19 up .097 OR YEN DOWN 10  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2445 DOWN .0056 POUND DOWN 56  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 17 basis points to 1.3259

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0885    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0831  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.6783 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.18%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.75 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.22 DOWN 5 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.46 DOWN 20  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 6.35  0.56%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 17.01 POINTS OR .14%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 5.14 POINTS 0.09%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 27.50 POINTS or 0.31%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 145.77 POINTS OR 0.67%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 58.86 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 64.34 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    64.29  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.16 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 16 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.51 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  58.19//

 

 

BRENT :  63.51

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.79… down 1 basis pt

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.25.. down 2 basis pts.

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1033 ( down 41   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.43 UP .342 (YEN DOWN 34 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.47 UP 20 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2485 DOWN 16  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.6811

 

 

the Russian rouble 64.27   UP 0.19 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 19 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3286 DOWN 43 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0860  (ONSHORE)/

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0826 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.51%

 

The Dow closed UP 36.35 POINTS OR 0.13%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 8.63 POINTS OR 0.11%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  14.15 CLOSED DOWN .29

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.165%//libor rising big time

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Bank Stocks Bounce Hard On QE4 Hints But Bonds & Bullion Rebuff Powell Promise

After two days of liquidity issues in the repo market, prompting the biggest Fed response in over a decade, Jay Powell proudly proclaimed that there was nothing to see here, move along…

 

Until of course, Powell suddenly got the tap on the shoulder and promised “moar”:

“It is certainly possible that we’ll need to resume the organic growth of the balance sheet sooner than we thought.”

In other words – QE is coming, just not yet… and stocks rebounded excitedly…

By the end of the day, stocks had pushed back up to the highs of the day… (but gold, bonds and the dollar shrugged off the QE4 hint)…

 

S&P and Nasdaq did their best to scramble back to unchanged on the week…

S&P 500 algos were all about 3,000 once again…

 

Banks were the big gainers on the day as rates surged…

Source: Bloomberg

Very mixed picture across the curve today with yields rising after The Fed but on the day, the long end was lower in yield (30Y -3bps) and short-end higher (+3bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y Yield spiked back top unchanged on the week (ignoring the QE4 hints)…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y yields rose very modestly on The Fed but ended lower on the day (again ignoring Powell’s QE4 hints)

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve flattened notably – policy errorishly…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar spiked – on the relatively hawkish Fed statement – ignoring his more dovish promises…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were mixed again with Bitcoin flat but Altcoins gaining ground

Source: Bloomberg

In commodityland, everything was lower (stronger dollar) with WTI worst (surprise build and reduction in war rhetoric) and gold actually outperformed…but on the week copper is weakest

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was monkeyhammered lower – erasing the post-Saudi-bombing gains, before bouncing…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver rebounded more aggressively…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Finally, to circle back to where we started, The Fed has totally lost control over its rate transmission process – we will have to see if the IOER cut today and Powell’s promise of ‘moar’ will make any difference…The effective fed funds rate printed outside of the central bank’s target band Tuesday for the first time since the financial crisis.

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, we note that the market is now pricing in less than one more rate cut for the rest of the year…

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/this morning/USA

One of the big stories of the day:  The Fed funds prints at 2.30% ,much higher than 2/25% ceiling due to the lack of liquidity in the market. And now the new replacement for Libor (Security Overnight Financing Index or SOFI) just skyrocketed a huge 2.87% to 5.25%

(zerohedge)

Fed Funds Prints 2.30%, Breaching Target Range For The First Time, As Libor Replacement Soars To “Remarkable” 5.25%

If today’s second consecutive repo was supposed to calm the stress in the secured lending market and ease the funding shortfall in the interbank market, it appears to have failed. Not only did O/N general collateral print at 2.25-2.60% after the repo operation, confirming that repo rates remain inexplicably elevated even though everyone who had funding needs supposedly met them thanks to the Fed, but in a more troubling development, the Effective Fed Funds rate printed at 2.30% at 9am this morning, breaching the Fed’s target range of 2.00%-2.25% for the first time.

 

Source: Bloomberg, Zerohedge

And yes, it is quite ironic that on the day the Fed is cutting rates, the Fed Funds was just “pushed” above the top end of the target range for the first time ever.

This also means that the EFF-IOER spread has now blown out to an unprecedented 20bps, yet another indication that the Fed has lost control of the rates corridor.

 

Source: Bloomberg, Zerohedge

But in what may be the most concerning move, today’s print for the Secured Overnight Financing Index (SOFR), which is widely expected to be Libor’s replacement, exploded higher by 282bps to a record 5.25%.

 

Source: Bloomberg, Zerohedge

Commenting on the blow out in the SOFR, Goldman had this to say on the “extremely volatile” price action in the key funding index:

The SOFR market saw extremely volatile price action over the course of the day…. Almost 20k in SERU9 blocks printed from 11:15am through the afternoon, pushing SERFFU9 from -10 to -21.5. Shortly after 4pm the market was given another jolt of adrenaline as news of a second Fed operation to be conducted tomorrow morning at 8:15am caused the spot-6mo curve to go bid into the close.

The problem here is that since SOFR is expected to replace LIBOR as the reference rate for several hundred trillions in fixed income securities, a spike such as this one would be perfectly sufficient to wreak havoc across market if indeed it had been the key reference rate.

Finally,courtesy of BMO’s Jon Hill, here is some commentary on today’s oversubscribed, and clearly insufficient, repo operation by the Fed:

Today’s emergency repo operation was oversubscribed with $51.6 bn in Treasury and $22.8 bn in MBS collateral accepted. The weighted average in USTs was 2.215%, with a high rate of 2.36% and a low of 2.10%. This should help alleviate some stress in USD funding markets, and the fact that it’s occurring earlier in the morning than Tuesday should help keep daily averages more subdued than yesterday – SOFR printed at a remarkable 5.25% (a stunning 282 bp spike) with fed funds still unknown but scheduled to be released at 9:00 AM ET and likely to print outside of the target range.

If Powell is successful at guiding the market toward assuming a mid-cycle adjustment, one specific repricing that will occur is in 2020 forwards, which are still factoring in one and a half 25 bp cuts next year as shown in the attached (admittedly, precision here is difficult due to the illiquidity of the Jan ’21 contract). This contrasts with the FOMC’s desire to execute a more modest drop in overnight rates and the price response here will be a focal point in determining how markets are responding to the impending Fed communication. If Powell is effective, look for that area of the curve to steepen sharply.

And so with funding generally locked down for the rest of the day, everyone will now turn attention to what Powell says and how he proposes to ease the funding panic at 2pm today when the FOMC cuts rates by 25bps

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON/FOMC

FOMC cuts rates, as well as failing to address the liquidity crisis.  They did cut the IOER which is what they pay the banks on excess reserves by 30 basis points, hoping that will help the liquidity.

(zerohedge)

Very Divided FOMC Cuts Rates As Expected, Fails To Address Liquidity Crisis

Things have not gone exactly according to plan since The Fed cut rates for the first time in a decade:

But today is a big day for Jay Powell as he has to somehow explain why he is cutting rates in the face of:

Surging inflation

 

Source: Bloomberg

Dramatically positive macro surprises

Source: Bloomberg

Unemployment near record lows

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks near record highs

Source: Bloomberg

Bond yields near record lows

Source: Bloomberg

Dollar near record highs

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, there is the fact that policy uncertainty has never been higher…

Source: Bloomberg

And The Fed just suffered the biggest short-term liquidity crisis since 2007!

Source: Bloomberg

The market is completely priced for at least a 25bps cut today…

Source: Bloomberg

But, we note that markets have become more hawkish in recent weeks – shifting from expecting 2.7 rate-cuts to just 2 rate-cuts in 2019 (including today)…

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps, Powell has seen this chart?

AndreasStenoLarsen@AndreasSteno

FedEx down 12% from open…

If the FedEx signal is anything to go by, then we are headed for rather bad times ahead..

I have my chips on this as well..

View image on Twitter

Data-Dependent, my arse.

How many dissents this time? (anticipated dissents – Esther George, Eric Rosengren and, possibly, Jim Bullard)

Source: Bloomberg

*  *  *

To check all the dovish boxes, Powell would need to: cut 25bps, suggest more to come (dovish tweaks to language), median dots adjusted lower, fewer dissents, restart QE. As BMO noted:

In terms of assumptions for the FOMC, a 25 bp cut is essentially a done deal. The statement should maintain language that the Committee “will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion” to keep the door open to future rate cuts. The dot plot will shift lower, though we’d caution against over-interpreting this forward guidance due to the divergence between modal member forecasts and monetary policy implemented with a risk-management focus. We’re skeptical that the longer-run dot will decline further from 2.5%, which should continue to provide support for long rates (5y5y is around 2% while 10y10y is closer to 2.5%).

Anyway, here’s what he did…

  • *FED CUTS MAIN TARGET RATE 25 BPS TO 1.75%-2%
  • *FED LOWERS RATE ON OVERNIGHT REVERSE REPOS BY 30 BPS TO 1.7%

*FED FORECASTS SHOW OFFICIALS SPLIT ON NEED FOR MORE EASING

3 Dissents

  • GEORGE, ROSENGREN DISSENT FOR NO CUT
  • BULLARD SEEKS 50 BPS

Bloomberg’s Key Takeaways from the Fed decision:

  • No surprise on main action, as FOMC cuts benchmark rate 25 basis points for a second straight meeting — to 1.75%-2% target range
  • The dot plot of rate forecasts is somewhat hawkish, showing a split over the need for more easing, not just in 2019 but in coming years: Seven officials see an end-2019 funds rate of 1.625%, with five at 1.875% and five at 2.125%; none see the rate going below 1.625% through 2022
  • Esther George and Eric Rosengren again dissent in favor of no cut, while James Bullard seeks a half-point cut; it’s the first decision with three dissents since 2016, under Janet Yellen
  • The Fed also lowered the interest on excess reserves rate and the overnight repurchase rate by 30 basis points, with the central bank seeking to regain control of the benchmark as money-market strains persist
  • The FOMC reiterates that it will “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion”; the statement contains minimal changes, mainly to note household spending gains have been “strong” while business fixed investment and exports have “weakened”; the mention of exports is new and there’s a more explicit nod to trade tensions weighing on growth
  • Fed officials’ economic forecasts were largely unchanged from the prior round in June; there’s a slight upgrade in GDP growth expectations, but policy makers still see the expansion slowing and nowhere near Trump’s 3% goal

And the DOT-plot adjusted… Fed projections show no further cuts in 2019, but seven of 17 policymakers saw one more cut as appropriate

Source: Bloomberg

The Fed is now expecting 2019 fed funds rate at 1.9 where we are now…

 

*  *  *

Full Statement below:

*  *  *

Good luck in the press conference

 

end

Trump furious as he slams the clown Powell as a terrible communicator. He says that he failed again

(zerohedge)

Outraged Trump Slams “Terrible Communicator” Powell: “He Failed Again”

It wasn’t just the market that was disappointed by Powell’s lack of a QE or POMO announcement: so was the president.

Moments after Powell cut rates by 25bps, very much in line with Trump’s expectations, and sparked a favorable initial kneejerk reaction, the market slumped when it realized that contrary to expectations, Powell failed to announce a POMO/QE Lite. Apparently Trump figured it out too, because several weeks after Trump asked for the first time for “some QE”, Powell failed to deliver, and this in turn sparked the furious president to lash out at Powell, when he tweeted “Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve Fail Again. No “guts,” no sense, no vision!  A terrible communicator!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve Fail Again. No “guts,” no sense, no vision! A terrible communicator!

At this rate we would venture to guess that Powell’s job is only safe until the next 10% correction; at that point he may as well tender his resignation.

As for what happens next: all hail future Fed Chair Bullard – you will now be paid to take out your next mortgage!

end

Market reaction this afternoon.

the clown, Powell should take a bow;

Bonds, Stocks, & Bullion Battered As Powell Shrugs Off Liquidity Crisis

Update (1450ET): Fed Chair Powell was very clear in shrugging off and downplaying the biggest liquidity crisis in over a decade when asked numerous times:

“They have no implications for the economy or the stance of monetary policy.”

This triggered another down leg in bonds, stocks and gold…

Powell did offer some hope for more QE:

“It is certainly possible that we’ll need to resume the organic growth of the balance sheet sooner than we thought.”

*  *  *

US equity markets are not happy that The Fed failed to dover on its dovish cut hopes and utterly ignored the ongoing liquidity crisis in short-term money markets.

The dollar is spiking…

Source: Bloomberg

And stocks dropping…

Nasdaq is the biggest underperformer…

30Y Treasury yields are holding at the lows of the day but not extending

Source: Bloomberg

But 2Y yields are spiking on the apparent hawkishness…

Source: Bloomberg

Dramatically flattening the yield curve…

Source: Bloomberg

As the market begins to shift to pricing in less than one more rate-cut by year-end…

Source: Bloomberg

Can Jay talk his way out of this? Or make it worse?

end

then late this afternoon at around 4:30 pm est//this is huge..a 3rd consecutive Repo operation as dollars are scarce and collateral is faulty.

(zerohedge)

NY Fed Announces Third Consecutive Repo Operation On Thursday At 8:15am

The Fed may or may not launch QE4 at some point in the near future, even though Powell said that growing the balance sheet is “certainly possible”, but for now the Fed is stuck with the only liquidity-injecting operation in its arsenal, namely repo, and after two consecutive days of repos, one for $53BN on Tuesday, and another for the full $75BN allotment today, moments ago the NY Fed announce that a third consecutive repo would take place on Thursday between 8:15am and 8:30am ET, “in  order to help maintain the federal funds rate within the target range of 1-3/4 to 2 percent.”

As a reminder, today for the first time in a decade, the Effective Fed Funds rate was fixed at 2.30%, 5bps above the top range of the fed funds range.

The Thursday overnight repo op will be the same size as the previous two, or $75 billion, which means that once again investors will be watching if the offering will be oversubscribed as it was today, when over $5 billion in Primary Dealer bids did not find the liquidity they needed.

 

As the NY Fed also noted, “propositions will be awarded based on their attractiveness relative to a benchmark rate for each collateral type, and are subject to a minimum bid rate of 1.80 percent”, which as of today is the new excess reserve rate.

Here is the full NY Fed statement:

Statement Regarding Repurchase Operation

In accordance with the FOMC Directive issued September 18, 2019, the Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will conduct an overnight repurchase agreement (repo) operation from 8:15 AM ET to 8:30 AM ET tomorrow, Thursday, September 19, 2019, in order to help maintain the federal funds rate within the target range of 1-3/4 to 2 percent.

This repo operation will be conducted with Primary Dealers for up to an aggregate amount of $75 billion. Securities eligible as collateral in the repo include Treasury, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities. Primary Dealers will be permitted to submit up to two propositions per security type. There will be a limit of $10 billion per proposition submitted in this operation. Propositions will be awarded based on their attractiveness relative to a benchmark rate for each collateral type, and are subject to a minimum bid rate of 1.80 percent.

The question of course is whether the market will be satisfied by this option, or will de boycott the continued use of band-aid solutions such as repos, and overnight repo rates will soar, making it clear that the repo market freeze will continue until the Fed finally launches QE.

Those wondering what tomorrow’s general collateral repo rate will be, it will be revealed on Thursday morning shortly before 8am, or minutes before the repo is set to take place. If the rate soars again as it did on Tuesday, expect more “technical difficulties” and more delays, as the market makes its displeasure clear to Powell.

end

ii)Market data/USA

Low mortgage rates has finally spurred housing starts as well as permits

(zerohedge)

Housing Starts & Permits Explode Higher In August, Led My Multi-Family

After last months big rebound in permits (and drop in starts) both were expected revert in August. But, instead, they both exploded higher:

  • Housing Starts +12.3% MoM (+5.0% exp)
  • Building Permits +7.7% MoM (-1.3% exp).

Source: Bloomberg

 

On a YoY basis, the surge is even more dramatic. The largest annual rise in permits since March 2017 and biggest annual jump in starts since Sept 2018.

Source: Bloomberg

This is the highest level of starts since June 2007

Source: Bloomberg

Multifamily dominated the outsized gains:

Single family starts rose 4.4% to 919k; multifamily starts rose 32.8% to three-month high of 445k

Three of four regions posted starts increases in August, powered by strongest rate of homebuilding in the Midwest since May 2018. Starts in the South were the highest since January, while building permits in the nation’s largest region advanced to a 12-year high.

Time for more rate cuts?

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Last night, the liquidity shortage is getting worse!!  The Fed is in a pickle.  As we shall find out, they just did not know how to address this in their FOBC report

(zerohedge)

Liquidity Shortage Getting Worse: Fed’s Repo Oversubscribed As Funding Demand Soars 50% Overnight

20 minutes after today’s repo operation began, it concluded and there was some bad news in it: as we feared, yesterday’s take up of the Fed’s repo operation which peaked at $53.2 billion has expanded substantially, and according to the Fed, today there was a whopping $80.05BN in bids submitted, an increase of $27 billion, or 50% more than yesterday.

It also meant that since the operation – which is capped at $75BN – was oversubscribed by over $5BN, that there was one or more participants who did not get up to €5 billion in the critical liquidity they needed, and that the Fed will see a chorus of demands by everyone (because like with the discount window, nobody will dare to be singled out) to either expand the size of its operations, implement a fixed operation and/or – most likely as per the ICAP note yesterday –  transition to permanent open market operations, i.e. QE

By comparison this is what yesterday’s repo operation looked like:

What is immediately notable is that except for agency paper, there was a greater use of both Treasury ($40.9BN to $51.6BN) and Mortgage-backed ($11.7BN to $27.8BN) collateral. The only silver lining: the step out rate on agency paper dropped from 3.00% to 2.1% however with virtually nobody using that, it is a largely meaningless easing in terms.

Finally, the worst news is that immediately after the operation, overnight repo remained elevated, with Reuters reporting the rate was 2.25%-2.60% after the latest repo operation, confirming that the liquidity shortage continues with the high end of repo still far above fed funds.

* * *

Yesterday’s Fed repo operation – the first direct liquidity injection in a decade – was an unmitigated disaster, with the NY Fed forced to cancel it in the middle due to “technical difficulties” which nobody still know what they were, only to resume it moments later. All we can say is that today the Fed better not fuck this up again, especially with New York Fed President John Williams, senior vice president of market operations Lorie Logan and first vice president Michael Strine all expected to be in Washington for the Fed’s two-day central bank meeting.

In any case, moments ago the NY Fed announced that, as expected, today’s repo operation started at 8:14am as expected, with the repo rate trading quite elevated around 2.80% and the SOFR trading bizarrely above 5%

  • Overnight U.S. Funding Rate at 2.8%, Elevated for a Third Day
  • *SECURED OVERNIGHT FINANCING RATE JUMPS TO 5.25%

With such mindboggling volatility, SOFR will certainly make a “great” LIBOR replacement.

Check back here at 830am ET for the results; it will be interesting if the total uptake today is over yesterday’s $53BN – that will suggest that the problem is getting worse, not better…

end

Trump Nominates Chief Hostage Negotiator To Be Next National Security Advisor

President Trump has named his pick to succeed John Bolton as the next National Security Advisor amid burgeoning tensions with Iran over a weekend attack in Saudi Arabia.

In a Wednesday morning tweet, Trump said he planned to nominate Robert C. O’Brien, who currently serves as the special presidential envoy for hostage affairs at the State Department, the administration’s top hostage negotiator, to become the next NSA.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I am pleased to announce that I will name Robert C. O’Brien, currently serving as the very successful Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs at the State Department, as our new National Security Advisor. I have worked long & hard with Robert. He will do a great job!

According to the State Department’s website, O’Brien has served in multiple administrations, and even once worked closely with John Bolton after being named the US representative to the 60th session of the UN General Assembly by George W Bush.

Robert C. O’Brien

* * *

Read his full biography below:

Ambassador Robert C. O’Brien serves as the Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs at the U.S. Department of State. Working for Secretary Pompeo, O’Brien leads the U.S. Government’s diplomatic efforts on overseas hostage-related matters. He works closely with the families of American hostages and advises the senior leadership of the U.S. Government on hostage issues. O’Brien also coordinates with the interagency Hostage Recovery Fusion Cell on the development and implementation of U.S. hostage recovery policy and strategy.

O’Brien previously served as Co-Chairman of the U.S. Department of State Public-Private Partnership for Justice Reform in Afghanistan under both Secretaries Rice and Clinton. The PPJRA promoted the rule of law by training Afghan judges, prosecutors and defense lawyers and provided scholarships for young Afghan lawyers to study in the U.S. From 2008 through 2011, O’Brien was a presidentially-appointed member of the U.S. Cultural Property Advisory Committee, which advises the federal government on issues relating to the trafficking of antiquities and other cultural items. In 2005, Mr. O’Brien was nominated by President George W. Bush and confirmed by the U.S. Senate to serve as a U.S. Representative to the 60th session of the United Nations General Assembly where he worked with Ambassador John Bolton. Earlier in his career, O’Brien served as a Senior Legal Officer for the UN Security Council commission that decided claims against Iraq arising out of the first Gulf War. O’Brien was a Major in the U.S. Army Reserve.

O’Brien is the co-founding partner of Larson O’Brien LLP in Los Angeles, a nationally recognized litigation firm. His law practice focuses on complex litigation and international arbitration. In addition to his client work, O’Brien has served as an arbitrator in over 20 international proceedings and he has been appointed by the federal courts to serve as a special master in numerous complex cases.

O’Brien is a graduate of the Boalt Hall School of Law at U.C. Berkeley. He received his B.A. degree in political science, cum laude, from UCLA. He is a member of the Pacific Council on International Policy.

* * *

Like Mitt Romney, whose campaign he worked on as an advisor, O’Brien is a mormon. And after he is confirmed, will be the highest ranking Mormon in the Trump Administration.

As many federal jobs remain unfilled, Trump didn’t take long to nominate O’Brien, which suggests the administration already had him in mind, and that they only needed to vet him.

O’Brien has been involved in many high-profile incidents during the Trump years, including, most recently, the negotiations with Sweden over the fate of rapper A$AP Rocky.

Back in 2017, O’Brien was reportedly considered to be Secretary of the Navy, but was instead nominated to his current position, and given the rank of ambassador one year later.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Mish blast the New York times for their obvious Kavanaugh smear piece.

(Mish Shedlock)

Mish Blasts NYT Kavanaugh Smear: “Editorial Mistake My Ass”

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

As details emerge in the New York Times Kavanaugh scandal, it’s very clear the NYT repeatedly made serious errors

Blatant Sleaze

On September 14, the New York Times resurrected unsubstantiated and graphic rumors about Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh in a purposeful smear article Brett Kavanaugh Fit In With the Privileged Kids. She Did Not.

The article was by disgraced NYT authors Robin Pogrebin and Kate Kelly to promote their upcoming book “The Education of Brett Kavanaugh: An Investigation.”

I do not normally report on sleaze but to understand what the NYT did, I have to.

Here is one controversial paragraph.

We also uncovered a previously unreported story about Mr. Kavanaugh in his freshman year that echoes Ms. Ramirez’s allegation. A classmate, Max Stier, saw Mr. Kavanaugh with his pants down at a different drunken dorm party, where friends pushed his penis into the hand of a female student.

Coverup Whitewash

The NYT later added this correction.

The book reports that the female student declined to be interviewed and friends say that she does not recall the incident. That information has been added to the article.

That’s one hell of a correction don’t you think?

Editing Error

Making matters worse for itself, The NYT came out and blamed it all on an “editing error“.

Reporters Robin Pogrebin and Kate Kelly said in an interview on MSNBC that they wrote in the draft of their Sunday Review piece that a woman who Kavanaugh was said to have exposed himself to while a student at Yale had told others she had no recollection of the alleged incident.

Their editors, they say, removed the reference. “It was just sort of. . . in the haste of the editing process,” said Pogrebin.

The editor responsible for editing the Kavanaugh piece, Times Deputy Editorial Page Editor James Dao addressed select questions about the piece on a Times “Bulletin Board” posted on Monday and updated Tuesday. But he did not address why the information about the woman’s recollection was removed from the story.

Dao declined a POLITICO request for comment.

Half Bullshit

We certainly never intended to mislead in any way,” Pogrebin said in discussing the editor’s note on MSNBC.

“We wanted to give as full a story as possible.”

I know bullshit when I see it. The whole story is bullshit. On second thought, make that half bullshit (I will explain in a moment).

Since when do you post unsubstantiated sleaze of this nature when the people allegedly involved do not remember the incident?

Someone shoved a penis in my face and I don’t remember.

Really?

Here’s the believable part: “We wanted to give as full a story as possible.”

Robin Pogrebin and Kate Kelly want to sell books and sleaze sells.

Of course they wanted as “full a story as possible” and the more bullshit the better.

Bullshit Replicated

Olive@OliveMLowe

“HAVING
A
PENIS
THRUST
IN
YOUR
FACE
MAY
SEEM
LIKE
HARMLESS
FUN”

To who? Really who?

This “take” is as bizarre as it is twisted. @nytopinion @nytimes

View image on Twitter

Entire Book Unravels

Zerohedge fills in the remaining pieces in his take As Kavanaugh Smear Unravels, Original Accuser’s ‘Witness’ Now Doubts Story

As the left-wing smear against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh continues to unravel amid a journalistic malpractice scandal at the New York Times, original Kavanaugh accuser Christine Blasey Ford’s “lifelong friend” and alleged witness now doubts her story.

Keyser – who said she was pressured by Ford’s ex-FBI buddy to lie and say that she didn’t remember the party instead of saying that it never happened – originally said through her attorney that she “does not refute Dr. Ford’s account,” however “the simple and unchangeable truth is that she is unable to corroborate it because she has no recollection of the incident in question.”

“I was told behind the scenes that certain things could spread about me if I didn’t comply,” Keyser told the Times journos – who felt it wasn’t notable enough for their smear article.

Now, Keyser says she doesn’t believe Ford’s story at all.

“We spoke multiple times to Keyser, who also said that she didn’t recall that get-together or others like it,” wrote Pogrebin and Kelly in their new book, The Education of Brett Kavanaugh: An Investigation (yet another item that didn’t make it into their inflammatory Times article). “In fact, she challenged Ford’s accuracy.

Ryan Saavedra

@RealSaavedra

CBS News: Christine Blasey Ford’s close HS friend (who Ford says was at the party when Kavanaugh allegedly assaulted her) said Ford’s story isn’t believable and told the FBI Ford’s allies pressured her, threatened her with a smear campaign to say otherwise

Embedded video

Editors Should Be Fired

At a minimum, the editors responsible should be fired. They are corrupt, incompetent, or both.

Anyone at the NYT defending the editors should also be fired.

NYT Pours On the Bullshit

NYT opinion columnist Jamelle Bouie says Mad About Kavanaugh and Gorsuch? The Best Way to Get Even Is to Pack the Court.

So what should Democrats do? They should play hardball back. Congress, according to the Judiciary Act of 1789, decides the number of judges. It’s been 150 years since it changed the size of the Supreme Court. I think it’s time to revisit the issue. Should Democrats win that trifecta, they should expand and yes, pack, the Supreme Court. Add two additional seats to account for the extraordinary circumstances surrounding the Gorsuch and Kavanaugh nominations.

To post that article in the wake of blatant errors adds fat to the fire.

It’s also asinine.

The fact of the matter is Republicans control the Senate and Trump gets to make the nominees.

Even assuming that changes, all it would do is encourage Republicans to counter the next time they are in charge.

Nonpolitical Court

The court is supposed to be nonpolitical.

In that regard, Trump made two excellent choices. He could easily have appointed two far-right choices but didn’t.

Excellent Choices

Some of my own readers incorrectly accused me of TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome).

The notion is absurd. I am a free market, anti-war Libertarian.

When Trump strays from either, I criticize.

Here, Trump is correct.

Trump Tweets

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The New York Times is now blaming an editor for the horrible mistake they made in trying to destroy or influence Justice Brett Kavanaugh. It wasn’t the editor, the Times knew everything. They are sick and desperate, losing in so many ways!

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The New York Times is at its lowest point in its long and storied history. Not only is it losing a lot of money, but it is a journalistic disaster, being laughed at even in the most liberal of enclaves. It has become a very sad joke all all over the World. Witch Hunt hurt them…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I call for the Resignation of everybody at The New York Times involved in the Kavanaugh SMEAR story, and while you’re at it, the Russian Witch Hunt Hoax, which is just as phony! They’ve taken the Old Grey Lady and broken her down, destroyed her virtue and ruined her reputation…

Instead of admitting how stupid they were, Democrat presidential nominees want a Kavanaugh impeachment.

The people in charge of this fiasco at the NYT should be fired.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

The King Report September 18, 2019 Issue 6094                                                                                Independent View of the News

Repo Market Chaos Signals Fed May Be Losing Control of Rates

  • Overnight repo rate spiked to highest rate since December
  • If fed funds also jumps, FOMC might need to tweak IOER again

Amid the settlement of Treasury coupon auctions and the influx of quarterly corporate tax payments, the rate on overnight repurchase agreements soared by as much as 248 basis points to 4.75%, the highest level since December, according to ICAP pricing. It came back down to 2.50%, still up 23 basis points for the day. Curvature Securities spotted a different peak: 8%…

    The spike suggests the next few months could be volatile given the expected increase in Treasury supply, bloated dealer balance sheets, regulatory issues and a banking system where reserves are scarce.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-16/repo-market-chaos-drives-overnight-rate-up-by-most-in-months

Overnight Funding Rate Surges to Record Levels Above 8%

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-17/overnight-funding-rate-surges-above-8-in-early-tuesday-trading

New York Fed Announces Operation to Ease Money-Market Rates

The operation to keep the fed funds rate within its target range is being conducted from 9:30am to 9:45 am ET for as much as $75 billion… Surges in the repo rate normally occur only at quarter end… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-17/new-york-fed-announces-operation-to-ease-money-market-rates

NY Fed: Statement Regarding Repurchase Operation

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_190917

The funding problem is due to the Street carrying too much debt.  The Street is teeming with public and private debt because: 1) Everyone that is paying attention has issued debt like crazy; and 2) with central banks moving back into QE mode and sovereigns looking to expand fiscal spending, Mr. Bond has finally revolted.  The US 30-year bond declined, as of last Friday, 9 points from September 3, or 5.5%.  Street bond departments are in desperate need of great fools or massive Fed QE.

ESZs declined on Tuesday night because Chinese stocks dropped.  The CSI 300 declined 1.68%.  The Shanghai Composite fell 1.74% while the Shenzhen Composite took a 2% hit.  The Nikkei rallied 0.06%.

The weakness in Asia induced modest declines for European stocks.  Traders bought the opening decline in Europe and ESZs rallied in consort.  The rally ended by the end of the first hour of trading.  ESZs hit a low of 2993.75 at 8:35 ET.  The ESZ rally to game the NYSE open then commenced.

ESZs and US stocks vacillated wildly after the NYSE open as traders and investors as players tried to figure out if they should be bearish about the repo rate spike or bullish on the NY Fed intervention.

NY Fed Cancels Repo Operation Due to Technical Difficulties – BBG 9:44 ET

NY Fed Says Report Operation to Be Reopened as Soon as Possible – BBG 9:44 ET

NY Fed to Conduct Report Operation, Closes at 10:10am – BBG 10:00 ET

NY Fed Takes $53.2B of Treasuries, Securities in Repo Op – BBG 10:15 ET

The NY Fed’s difficulty in conducting its repo operation increased ESZs and US stock gyrations.  After the Fed repo, ESZs and stocks plodded higher into the European close.  Stocks could NOT gain traction even after the Fed repo drove the O/N repo rate to 0%.  Possibly on concerns about the Middle East.

Oil declined as much as 6% on reports that Saudi oil production would resume faster than expected.

Oil rallied in the early afternoon on reports that the US has identified the exact Iranian locations from which drones and cruise missiles were launched against Saudi oil facilities.

CBS’s @saraecook: The US has identified the exact locations in Iran from which a combination of more than 20 drones and cruise missiles was launched against the Saudi oil facilities—from southern Iran at the northern end of the Persian Gulf, per a Sr. US official to @CBSDavidMartin

A modest, plodding afternoon rally attempt ended with a 4-minute ESZ mini-surge.  ESZs and stocks declined until the last 40 minutes of trading.  Manipulators and bulls’ expiry schemes have been stymied by Iran/Saudi Arabia and the repo rate.  Feeling safer late in the session, they did a manipulation, which closed the S&P 500 Index above 3000.  Part of the late buying was traders getting long for the expected Fed rate cut today.

At 16:13 ET, the NY Fed pre-announced a $75B repo for Wednesday from 8:15 to 8:30 ET.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_190917a

The DJTA and Russell 2000 were the worst performing major indices.  This suggests that the rotation into value move is ending.

Trump says U.S. reaches trade deals with Japan, no word on cars

In a letter to the U.S. Congress released by the White House, Trump said that he intends to enter into the agreements on tariff barriers and digital trade “in the coming weeks” and was notifying lawmakers that the tariff deal would be made under a trade law provision allowing the U.S. president to make reciprocal tariff reductions by proclamation…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-japan/trump-says-us-reaches-trade-deals-with-japan-no-word-on-cars-idUSKBN1W12TS

US August Industrial Production jumped 0.6% m/m; 0.2% was expected.  Manufacturing Production increased 0.5%; 0.2% was expected.  Capacity Utilization jumped to 77.9% from 77.5%.  Motor vehicle and parts production fell 1%. Machinery jumped 1.6%; mining rose 1.4%.  Energy increased 1.3%.  Business Equipment production rose 1.0%.

Homebuilder sentiment surges to highest level of the year, but there are warning signs

Confidence among the nation’s homebuilders rose 1 point to 68 in September in the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index – well above expectations and the highest level of the year… The average rate on the 30-year fixed fell from 3.96% in mid-July to 3.46% by the first week in September…   https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/homebuilder-sentiment-surges-to-highest-level-of-the-year.html

FedEx shares tumbled 8% after hours because the company reduced its FY adjusted EPS between $11.00 and $13.00.  The Street range of estimates was $14 to $15.85.

 

Today is a day that the Street has awaited for weeks.  It’s Fed Day plus Weird Wednesday, the session that usual contains the peak intensity of the expiry manipulation.  The world expects the Fed to cut funds by 25bps.  The unknown is the tone of the communique and Powell’s remarks.

 

Powell’s press conferences have tended to be more hawkish than expected, especially after rate cuts.

 

With the Street loaded with securities and bullish sentiment for equities in the ionosphere, the risk is on the downside.  Barring a 50bp rate cut, there should be selling on any rally after the FOMC Communique is released.  If the Fed cuts 50bps, there could be a strong rally initially; but wiser guys will be concerned that the Fed is panicky about something.  This could generate spirited selling in a latter session.

 

If the Fed cuts funds by 50bps, it could exacerbate the funding squeeze by inducing ‘risk on’ plays.  This is would likely generate offensive asset allocation: buy stocks while selling bonds.

 

Despite the pre-announced $75B repo, ESZs are -2.75 at 21:00 ET on FedEx’s disappointing guidance.

 

The S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 2951; 100-day MA: 2919; 150-day MA: 2890; 200-day MA: 2821

The DJIA 50-day MA: 26,610; 100-day MA: 26,340; 150-day MA: 26,224; 200-day MA: 25,730

 

S&P 500 Index support: 3000, 2985-90, 2972, 2955-60, 2940-45, 2930, 2922, 2914, 2900, 2880

Resistance: 3017-20, 3027, 3040, 3050

 

Expected economic data: Aug Housing Starts 1.25m, Permits 1.3m; FOMC Communique 14:00 ET: 25bp rate cut for Fed Funds and a cut to 1.85% from 2.1% on IOER are expected

 

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames

Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 2502.93 triggers a sell signal

Weekly: Trender is positive;MACD is negative – a close below 2816.78 triggers a sell signal

Daily: Trender andMACD are positive -a close below 2942.29 triggers a sell signal

Hourly: Trender andMACD are negative – a close above 3007.95 triggers a buy signal

Corey Lewandowski’s House Testimony Quickly Devolves Into a Total Mess

The former Trump campaign chief and Republican lawmakers swiftly derailed the Democrats’ newly minted impeachment hearings almost as soon as they started…

https://www.thedailybeast.com/corey-lewandowskis-house-testimony-quickly-devolves-into-a-total-mess

Well that is all for today

I will see you Thursday night.

 

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