SEPT 19/THIRD DAY IN A ROW FOR HIGHER REPO RATES AS LIQUIDITY DRIES UP//GOLD DOWN $8.90 TO $1499.00//SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TO $17.80//TODAY GOLD COMEX HAS CONSIDERABLE QUEUE JUMPING//

GOLD:$1499.00 DOWN $8.90 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.80 DOWN 4 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1498.60

 

silver:  $17.78

Definition of Rico

RICO is typically used to indict mobsters – which makes its use against employees of the largest bank in America a very disquieting event. But even more disquieting is that two trial lawyers compared JPMorgan Chase to the Gambino crime family five long years ago and recommended in their 2016 book that the bank’s officers be prosecuted under the RICO statute.” … Pam Martens and Russ Martens

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING  1/5

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,507.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/18/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 09/20/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
661 C JP MORGAN 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 2 2
905 C ADM 3
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 5 5
MONTH TO DATE: 1,738

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT CONTRACT: 5 NOTICE(S) FOR 500 OZ (0.0155 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1738 NOTICES FOR 173,800 OZ  (5.4059 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR SEPT

 

 

3 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 15,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 8441 for   42,205,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 9860 DOWN  293 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10033 DOWN 121

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE  SIZED 1636 CONTRACTS FROM 212,514 DOWN TO 210,878 WITH THE 24 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

 FOR SEPT 0,; DEC  613 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  613 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 613 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 613 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 16.71 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 24 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE

WE AGAIN HAD  HUGE COVERING OF BANKER SHORTS  AT THE SILVER COMEX YESTERDAY AS NO DOUBT OUR FRIENDS WERE SCARED OF THE GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE THEY WERE FACING.

 

 

THE LIQUIDATION OF COMEX OI OF SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED AND WE WILL NOW COMMENCE WITH THE ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADERS GOLD OPEN INTEREST

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT:

25,110 CONTRACTS (FOR 13 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 25,110 CONTRACTS) OR 125.55 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1931 CONTRACTS OR 9.657 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  125.55 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 17.93% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1675.16   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1636, WITH THE 24 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 613 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE  SIZED: 1023 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 613 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1636  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 24 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.84 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.054 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 151% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 3 NOTICE(S) FOR 15,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2526 CONTRACTS, TO 628,464 DESPITE THE  $2.40 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// / WE HAD IN GOLD ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING WITH NOT MUCH SUCCESS.

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 9786 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 500 CONTRACTS (SOMEBODY NEEDED GOLD IN A HURRY OVER IN LONDON), DEC>  9286 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 628,464,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7260 CONTRACTS: 2526 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 9786 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 7,260 CONTRACTS OR 726,000 OZ OR 22.59 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $2.40 IN GOLD TRADING….AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 22.59  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON AS THE COMEX GOLD VOLUME WAS HUGE. THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE LONGS.

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 92,100 CONTRACTS OR 9,210,000 oz OR 286.47 TONNES (13 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 7084 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 286.47 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 286.47/3550 x 100% TONNES =8.06% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4438.07  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2586 DESPITE THE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($2.40)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 9786 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 9786 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 7,260 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

9786 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2526 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 22.59 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE A TINY GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.40 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  5 notice(s) filed upon for 500 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: 

 

A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1626 CONTRACTS from 212,514 DOWN TO 210,878 AND FURTHER FROM A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR SEPT. 0; FOR DEC  613  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 613 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 1519  CONTRACTS TO THE 613 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1023 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5.115 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ// AND FINALLY SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 24 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 613 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 13.62 POINTS OR 0.42%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 285.17 POINTS OR 1.07%   /The Nikkei closed UP 83.74 POINTS OR 0.38%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .50%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0948 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0948 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0896 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

a)China/Fed-Ex

China is reciprocating over the past mistakes by Fed Ex

(zerohedge)

b)CHINA/USA

THIS AFTERNOON
Markets did not like this:  Trump’s top China trade advisor says that tariffs could go to 100%
(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

a)The Bank of England warns on Brexit uncertainty as they keep rates unchanged at .75%.  They state that their inflation is getting less and it may necessitate further easing if a BREXIT occurs

(zerohedge)

b)ECB/Switzerland

With the ECB going further down NIRP, the Swiss also have decided to lower their deposit rates.  They have now started to charge wealthy clients for deposits

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Israel

Meet Israel’s new Kingmaker, Avigdor Lieberman.  If you thought that Netanyahu was war like wait until you see his credentials

(Michael Snyder)

i b)Israel

A superb commentary from Michael Snyder as he lays out possible scenarios as to how Netanyahu can retain the Prime Ministership in Israel

(zerohedge)

ii)Extreme food for thought as to who is really behind the Aramco attacks

(courtesy Brandon Smith)

iii)TURKEY

Gatestone comments on the arrests of countless journalist who oppose Erdogan
(Gatestone)

6.Global Issues

CANADA

As of now there are three images of Trudeau wearing “blackface”.  I do not think it is racist but somehow the media is pouncing on Trudeau.  So it looks like the powers to be what him out

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)This is important: due to information provided by traders who spilled the beans, we now have Federal prosecutors and regulators broadening their manipulation probe into the precious metals and other currency moves and this is directed against most of the firms that we have been following e.g. HSBC, Deutsche bank etc.

(CNBC/GATA)

ii)This is very important: Robert Lambourne reports that gold swaps rose slightly in August but basically still lower than least year. It means that the banks are running out of gold to paperize.

(Robert Lambourne/GATA)

iii)A must read..

Chris Powell pounds the table that spoofing is just a minor part of the big manipulation scheme

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)

iv)The following shows how corrupt the system is: The lawyer representing Michael Nowak, the head honcho with respect to gold and silver commodity trader is none other than David Meister.  Meister was the chief enforcer at the CFTC during the time of the silver probe 2009-2013  at the CFTC.  JPMorgan at the time was a prime suspect in their manipulation of the metals.

(TFMetals/zerohedge/Craig Hemke)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

THE FED IS LOSING CONTROL OVER INTEREST RATES!! We now witness the new Effective Funds rate trading way above IEOR, a full 45 basis points. We basically have a lack of lquidity in the system.

(zerohedge)

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

a)Existing home sales are rising at the fastest pace in two years due to lower interest rates.  The question is whether the banks can keep providing liquidity

(zerohedge)

b)The Philly Fed mfg index drops to 12.0 in Sept after registering a strong 16.8 in August. All manufacturing numbers seem to be falling except housing

(Philly Fed/Market Watch)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)As we pointed out yesterday, we have a huge liquidity problem in the USA. Today’s PMO reading again showed a huge demand for dollars and there is just not enough of those paper bills in the system to satisfy demand. The only solution is QE4.

(zerohedge)

b)There seems to be a fraud here that has left many small businesses scrambling for money after 35 million dollars of payroll money disappears. This has caused massive problems for 400 employees who have written cheques on non existent payroll money.

(zerohedge)

c)Bolton unloads on Trump backing down on Iran plus a possible  meeting with the Taliban

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

i)Now Freedom Watch is suing the Dept of Justice for records of Special Agnet Gaeta who helped circulate the phony Steele dossier throughout Europe

(zerohedge)

ii)Ridiculous!! Democrats are salivating over a whistleblower’s statement that Trump made a troubling “proise” to a foreign leader. I guess it is OK for Obama to do but not Trump

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2526 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 628,464 DESPITE THE GAIN OF $2.40 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 9786 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR OCT; 500 CONTRACTS: DEC: 9286   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  9786 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 7,260 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 9786 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A FAIR SIZED 2526 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS SUCCEEDED IN CONTAINING GOLD’S PRICE BY A TINY GAIN OF $2.40. HOWEVER, JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY UNSUSPECTING LONGS. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  7260 CONTRACTS OR 726,000 OZ OR 22.59 TONNES.

We are now in the NON  active contract month of SEPT and here the open interest stands at 25 CONTRACTS and we GAINED 2 contracts.  We had 3notices filed yesterday so despite the raid and liquidation of contracts we gained 5 contracts or an additional 500 oz of gold that will  stand for delivery at the comex and the siege continues as the story for physical gold is the name of the game despite the criminal antics of the bankers.

The next active delivery month is October and here the OI ROSE by 483 contracts UP to 34,318. The month of November saw a loss of 1 contract and thus the OI is falls to 161.  The very big December contract month saw its oi FALL by 1358 contracts up to 471,371.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 5 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  500 OZ. (0.0155 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1636 CONTRACTS FROM 212,514 DOWN TO 210,878 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A STRONG 24 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.  HERE WE HAVE 168 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 94 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 94 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED  0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. BUT THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..  THE NEXT NON ACTIVE CONTRACT MONTH IS OCTOBER AND IT LOST ANOTHER 34 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1563. NOVEMBER SAW A SMALL GAIN OF 0 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 179. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI FALLS BY 1540 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 162,118.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 3 notice(s) filed for 15,000, OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 277,410  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  384,661  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  SEPT/GOLD

SEPT 19/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
5 notice(s)
 500 OZ
(0.0155 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
20 contracts
(2000 oz)
.1586 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1738 notices
173,800 OZ
5.4059 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else:  0

 

 

 

 

total gold deposits: zero  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ zero amount  arrived   today

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

 

 

FOR THE SEPT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 5 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1738) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT. (25 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (5 x 100 oz per contract) equals 175,800 OZ OR 5.468 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of SEPT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1738 x 100 oz)  + (25)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (5 x 100 oz )which equals 175,800 oz standing OR 5.468 TONNES in this  active delivery month of SEPT.

 

We GAINED 5 contracts or an additional 500 oz will seek metal on this side of the pond instead of morphing over to London.  The gold comex is still under siege for any remaining physical metal.

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 27.153  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING //AUGUST AND 5.468 TONNES IN SEPT.//

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT AS WELL AS SEPT SO FAR, AND THUS I WILL ADD THE 27.153 TONNES TO THE 5.468 TONNES (EQUALS 32.621 TONNES) AGAINST THE 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  736,702.381 oz or  22.91 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,098,442.861 oz 251.89 tonnes

IN THE LAST 35 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
SEPT 19 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 50,374.401 oz
CNT
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
133,683.466 oz
Brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)
3
CONTRACT(S)
(15,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
165 contracts
 825,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  8441 contracts

42,205,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into Brinks: 133,683.466 oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  133,683.466  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT:  30,363.131 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 20,011.279 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 50,374.401  oz

 

we had 0 adjustment :

 

total dealer silver:  87.928 million

total dealer + customer silver:  316.627 million oz

FOR THE SEPT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 3 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER 2019. contract month is represented by 3 contract(s) FOR 15,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 8441 x 5,000 oz = 42,205,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (168) and the number of notices served upon today 3 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2019 contract month: 8441 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (168)- number of notices served upon today (3)x 5000 oz equals 43,030,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month. 

We gained 0 contracts or NIL additional oz of silver will stand at the comex BUT these guys STOOD PAT AND refused to morph into London based forwards.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 3 notice(s) filed for 15,000 OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

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I have decided to compare silver comex inventory reading today vs 2 months ago vs what has been “delivered” upon

For August              10.025 million oz/

and thus far Sept:    43.03 million oz

total amount of silver delivered upon:  53.055 million oz

registered silver August 19:  92.83 million oz

registered silver Sept 19:  87.928 million oz

very strange..hardly any silver leaves..

 

 

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  63,485 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 102,916 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 102,916 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 514 million  OZ 73.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.79% ((SEPT 19/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.03% to NAV (SEPT 19/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.79%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.03 TRADING 14.53/DISCOUNT 3.32

 

 

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

 

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 16/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A BIG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 12//WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A HUGE 7.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.15 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: I)A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD (LATE YESTERDAY EVENING) AND 2) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES LATE THIS AFTERNOON./INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.17 TONNES

AUGUST 20//WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WE GOT BACK 7.63 TONNES OUT OF 11.11 TONNES LOST ON WEDNESDAY( A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

 

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

 

 

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SEPT 19/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 883.60 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 667 TRADING DAYS: 51.74 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 567- TRADING DAYS: A NET 114.87 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.899 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION PAPER OZ OF SILVER///INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.425 MILLION PAPER OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.179 MILLION OZ../

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 60 CENTS TODAY: A RATHER TIMID CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 842,000 PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 386.604 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.696 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20.WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 16/: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 15/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 19/2019:

 

 

Inventory 375.473 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.14/ and libor 6 month duration 2.08

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .06

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.07%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.06

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.01

lease rates negative out to one year

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Falls Despite President of the United States Attacking “Fail Again” Federal Reserve

Gold sees selling of gold futures in electronic trading on NY Globex despite a bullish
Fed rate cut and even more bullish attack by President Trump on the Federal Reserve.
Those who have alleged that gold is being manipulated lower believe that this suggests
that despite the indictment of JP Morgan, gold is still being manipulated lower.

This creates opportunities for long term value buyers who continue to
accumulate on price weakness, real or artificial

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Trump: Powell and the Federal Reserve Fail Again. No “guts,” no sense, no vision! A terrible communicator!

Federal prosecutors, commodity regulators broaden manipulation probe beyond precious metals

JP Morgan’s ‘spoofing’ isn’t the big manipulation GATA has pursued, Official manipulation is

BIS gold swaps rose in August but still lower than last year

Gold edges lower after Fed delivers mixed signals

Gold ends higher, heads lower in electronic trade after Fed cuts key interest rate

Powell says it’s possible the Fed will have to resume balance sheet growth

Geopolitical uncertainty pushing investors into gold: Commodities specialist (video)

Gold Prices (LBMA – USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)

18-Sep-19 1502.20 1503.50, 1206.27 1204.90 & 1360.39 1359.92
17-Sep-19 1499.30 1502.10, 1208.89 1207.24 & 1361.51 1360.45
16-Sep-19 1502.05 1497.20, 1207.35 1203.30 & 1357.25 1359.46
13-Sep-19 1506.30 1503.10, 1209.41 1208.19 & 1356.88 1358.35
12-Sep-19 1502.95 1515.20, 1219.94 1227.46 & 1362.88 1373.53
11-Sep-19 1493.65 1490.65, 1208.21 1209.07 & 1354.74 1355.90
10-Sep-19 1494.60 1498.25, 1211.52 1211.34 & 1353.51 1357.11
09-Sep-19 1509.95 1509.20, 1223.81 1220.34 & 1368.62 1364.92
06-Sep-19 1504.95 1523.70, 1223.52 1237.09 & 1363.94 1378.49

Click here to listen to the latest GoldCore Podcast

Receive our free Daily or Weekly Updates by signing up here and click here to subscribe to GoldCore’s You Tube Channel

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

This is important: due to information provided by traders who spilled the beans, we now have Federal prosecutors and regulators broadening their manipulation probe into the precious metals and other currency moves and this is directed against most of the firms that we have been following e.g. HSBC, Deutsche bank etc.

(CNBC/GATA)

Federal prosecutors, commodity regulators broaden manipulation probe beyond metals

 Section: 

Will there be enough tinfoil hats to go around?

* * *

By Dan Mangan
CNBC.com, New York
Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Federal prosecutors and regulators are expanding their already aggressive investigations of allegedly fraudulent precious metals trades at J.P. Morgan Chase to other U.S. markets and financial firms, CNBC has learned.

The broader inquiry into market manipulation of all kinds comes amid a spike in criminal prosecutions and civil actions in the past year involving so-called “spoofing” in the precious metals markets.

Prosecutors have broadened their investigation in part due to information received from traders questioned for spoofing-related charges.

..

Information from those traders has led to criminal charges against other individuals, according to people familiar with the probes who spoke with CNBC on the condition of anonymity due to the nature of the ongoing investigations.

The widening inquiry is being led by the Justice Department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission as they continue their pursuit of individuals and firms for manipulating U.S. markets.

The scope of the investigations has grown to the point where the criminal fraud division of the Justice Department expects to add personnel to the existing team to assist with the investigations and prosecutions of cases.

Spoofing is the practice of a trader placing a buy or sell order for a commodity or stock with the intent to cancel the order before it can be executed. The goal of the tactic is to affect the price of the futures contract or share to benefit a preexisting trading position.

People familiar with those methods say prosecutors now have an easier time identifying suspected spoofing due to advancements in the way the Department collects and analyzes trade data internally.

Sources who spoke with CNBC said prosecutors are using information about suspected spoofing to collect additional evidence against a trader and, if warranted, question that trader about their own conduct and that of others.

So far, the increased focus on spoofing has resulted in federal prosecutors bringing a total of 13 spoofing cases against 19 defendants in the past five years. Of those, eight have pleaded guilty, while seven are fighting the charges and awaiting trial.

Following the indictment of three J.P. Morgan precious metals traders on Monday, Assistant Attorney General Brian Benczkowski said that the Justice Department is not finished with its probes.

“Our investigation is ongoing, and we’re going to follow the facts wherever they lead whether it is across desks here or at any other bank or upwards into the financial institution,” Benczkowski said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/18/federal-prosecutors-regulators-broaden-m…

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

end

This is very important: Robert Lambourne reports that gold swaps rose slightly in August but basically still lower than least year. It means that the banks are running out of gold to paperize.

(Robert Lambourne/GATA)

Robert Lambourne: BIS gold swaps rose in August but still lower than last year

 Section: 

By Robert Lambourne
Wednesday, September 18, 2019

The July and August statements of account for the Bank for International Settlements indicate that the bank has continued to engage in gold swaps this summer. The BIS uses swaps and other gold derivatives to gain access to gold held by commercial banks.

But recent swap levels at the BIS remain much lower than in the second half of last year.

There is not enough information in the monthly reports to calculate the exact amount of gold swaps at the BIS, but based on the July and August statements the bank’s month-end gold swaps are estimated to be 95 tonnes for July and 162 tonnes for August.

… 

This compares to 126 tonnes as of June 30, 2019, 78 tonnes as of May 31, 2019, 88 tonnes as of April 30, 2019, 175 tonnes as of March 31, 2019, 303 tonnes as of February 28, 2019, 247 tonnes as of January 31, 2019, and, for last year, 275 tonnes as of December, 308 tonnes as of November, 372 tonnes as of October, 238 tonnes as of September, and 370 tonnes as of August.

In addition the BIS’ annual report for the financial year ending March 31, 2019, was published recently. In accordance with the report’s usual approach, little is disclosed about the reasons for BIS activity in gold and in particular for trading gold swaps. During the financial year the BIS did not sell any of its own gold, the first time for several years that this has happened.

The use of gold sight accounts for central banks held at the BIS increased in the financial year, which is also something of a change, as their use has generally declined in the last decade. There have been further increases in the amount of gold deposited in BIS sight accounts by central banks since March 31.

More background on the bank’s medium-term history of using gold swaps is available here:

http://www.gata.org/node/18825

On February 3 this year GATA published comments from a former gold industry executive describing the activities of the BIS in gold swaps in earlier decades:

http://www.gata.org/node/18828

The former executive wrote: “Effectively this process created a supply of ‘paper gold’ — sometimes but not always marked to market — that had a depressing effect on the gold price.”

The BIS refuses to explain its activity in the gold market — its objectives and the underlying parties in interest —

http://www.gata.org/node/17793

— and mainstream financial news organizations refuse to ask about it.

—–

Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults with GATA about the involvement of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market.

end

A must read..

Chris Powell pounds the table that spoofing is just a minor part of the big manipulation scheme

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)

Morgan’s ‘spoofing’ isn’t the big manipulation GATA has pursued, but we’ll take it for now

 Section: 

6:43p ET Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Delighted as we all may be with this week’s news — the new indictments of JPMorganChase employees involved with the gold market, the U.S. Justice Department’s designation of the investment bank as a criminal enterprise, and the prospects of more indictments — GATA has to admit a couple of things about the situation.

First, the market manipulation of which the bank’s employees and supervisors stand accused — rigging prices largely by “spoofing” other traders — is not the sort of manipulation GATA long has complained about.

… 

The indictments have brought much new attention to GATA — among other things, this week a reporter for a mainstream financial news organization on whose door we have pounded relentlessly without result actually sought comment about the indictments from your secretary/treasurer. But your secretary/treasurer had to disappoint him and maybe even to offend him with this:

“Of course the Morgan traders charged today enjoy the presumption of innocence. But the Justice Department already has obtained confessions from and convictions of two former Morgan traders who say they manipulated the monetary metals markets with the approval of their supervisors. So there is already documentation of systemic corruption in the monetary metals markets and at the country’s biggest investment bank. Unfortunately the involvement of the U.S. government itself in similar market rigging remains unaddressed. Such rigging seems comprehensive and a matter of longstanding policy, of far greater impact than the sporadic rigging attributed to the traders for Morgan and other banks.

“A year ago, echoing GATA, U.S. Rep. Alex X. Mooney, R-West Virginia, asked the Treasury Department to identify the markets in which the U.S. government is trading secretly and to explain the purposes of such trading. The department has refused to respond. Also echoing GATA, last year Mooney asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission whether it has jurisdiction over manipulative trading undertaken by or on behalf of the U.S. government or whether such trading is legal, authorized by the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 or other federal laws, and the commission also has refused to respond. GATA urges financial news organizations to press those bigger questions.”

In November 2001 in U.S. District Court in Boston your secretary/treasurer heard an official answer to the question now pending with the CFTC. The case before the court was GATA consultant Reg Howe’s lawsuit against the Bank for International Settlements, the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve, and various bullion banks, accusing them of rigging the gold market. An assistant U.S. attorney moved for summary judgment dismissal of the lawsuit, telling the court that while the government was not admitting what Howe charged, the government did claim the power, under the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, to do exactly what Howe charged:

http://www.gata.org/node/4211

As this week’s news reports have shown, putting critical questions to central banks about their surreptitious interventions in the gold market and other markets remains prohibited in mainstream financial news organizations, though that intervention constitutes far greater manipulation of markets than JPMorganChase is capable of on its own and indeed reflects government policy to suppress not just the price of gold but the prices of all major commodities.

The same mainstream financial news organization that this week sought comment from your secretary/treasurer also sought comment from silver market analyst and market-rigging foe Ted Butler.

Inadequate as the resulting reporting was, at least it showed that the mainstream financial news organizations know who we are and where to find us. It also suggested that those organizations may be starting to feel a bit nervous about having neglected the manipulation issue for so long.

The other thing we must admit is that we’re puzzled by the Justice Department’s aggressive pursuit of JPMorganChase.

Yes, in their Tuesday commentary Pam and Russ Martens of Wall Street on Parade wonderfully detailed the last decade of proven criminality at the bank:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/09/will-jamie-dimon-finally-lose-his…

But for many years JPMorganChase has been essentially a government agency itself — not just a primary dealer in U.S. Treasury securities but a broker for the government in various undertakings and rescues. The bank almost certainly has helped to execute the government’s surreptitious trades in the commodity futures markets.

After all, the bank’s chief executive officer, Jamie Dimon, and the former chief of its commodity division, Blythe Masters, have stated publicly that the bank has no position of its own in the monetary metals markets and trades them only for “clients.” Do those clients include the U.S. government and other governments? Of course only GATA has asked, and no response was ever offered.

Surely people at JPMorganChase have as much dirt on the government as the government is collecting on the bank. So why is the Justice Department going after the bank vigorously now after letting the bank skate away from so much of its own corruption?

While the Justice Department is supposed to be somewhat removed from politics, in the end it is a political agency like everything else in the executive branch of government, and some attorneys general have been brazenly political, like President John F. Kennedy’s attorney general, his brother and campaign aide, Robert, and President Richard Nixon’s attorney general, John Mitchell, his campaign manager.

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy’s theory about the Justice Department’s pursuit of JPMorganChase is that there are two competing factions within the government — a civil war within what lately has been called the Deep State. This is plausible.

Your secretary/treasurer is without any sensible hypothesis to explain the Justice Department’s assault on the bank. He can only wonder if, years ago, the bank refused to give President Trump a loan.

In any case, “market manipulation” now is on many lips and being cited by many mainstream news organizations, central banks increasingly are buying gold as if they know it is more than a “pet rock,” and suddenly there may not be enough tinfoil hats to go around. But GATA will put a few aside just in case any mainstream financial journalists starting picking up a few of the clues that long have been lying all around them.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

The following shows how corrupt the system is: The lawyer representing Michael Nowak, the head honcho with respect to gold and silver commodity trader is none other than David Meister.  Meister was the chief enforcer at the CFTC during the time of the silver probe 2009-2013  at the CFTC.  JPMorgan at the time was a prime suspect in their manipulation of the metals.

(TFMetals/zerohedge/Craig Hemke)

 

“Abject Corruption” – Exposing The Financial-Political-Complex Protecting Its Own In The Gold Manipulation Maelstrom

Via TF Metals Report,

By now, you’ve heard of the indictment of three key JP Morgan employees and the charges of precious metals market manipulation.

Well, I’ve just unearthed a nugget that will leave you speechless.

If you’ve been around here for a while, you’ll recall my secondary role in 2012 of assisting Andrew Maguire in his quest to end the Banks’ ongoing gold and silver price manipulation.

 

Though Andy had direct evidence from two whistleblowers inside JPM…and though this evidence was officially and legally summarized and submitted to the CFTC in August of 2012…the CFTC sat on the case. Their official “silver manipulation investigation” had dragged on to its fourth year and no end was in sight.

Then, in September of 2013, the CFTC suddenly closed the investigation and declared that there was “no viable basis to bring an enforcement action”. See this: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6709-13

The timing of this was suspect because just one day before, Andrew Maguire had appeared on The Keiser Report to disclose the information that the CFTC was seemingly ignoring. The video is below. The TFMR link posted the next day is here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/5087/am-mk

OK, so let’s get back to that CFTC press release from the day they suddenly closed the investigation. Note that the investigation was handled by the CFTC’s Division of Enforcement:

During the investigation, the head of the CTFC’s Division of Enforcement was a man named David Meister. In a curious development, Mr. Meister quit the CFTC just one week after the silver investigation was closed. https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6735-13

But there were no worries for Mr. Meister as he soon landed on his feet at the law firm of Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP and Affiliates. https://www.skadden.com

And so NOW is where we bring all of this full circle…

Please see this CNN summary of the DoJ indictments of Monday: https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/16/investing/jpmorgan-precious-metals-price-…

Did you catch it? If not, here’s the excerpt you need to see:

So, in summary…

  1. The Enforcement Division of the CFTC runs a five-year investigation into silver price manipulation, only to immediately close the investigation once presented with irrefutable whistleblower evidence of said manipulation.
  2. The head of the Enforcement Division, David Meister, quits the CFTC within a week of closing this investigation.
  3. Meister then takes a job with Washington law firm, Skadden LLP.
  4. Skadden LLP has been retained by Michael Nowak, former head of the JPMorgan precious metals desk, as his defense attorneys. The lead attorney defending Nowak is David Meister.

And there you have it. Abject corruption that is in your face and undeniable with another case of the Financial-Political Complex protecting its own.

end

Peter Schiff gives a terrific interview and explains why you must buy physical gold/silver now

(Peter Schiff)

Peter Schiff: Why The Fed Won’t Be Able To Rescue The Economy This Time Around

Via SchiffGold.com,

Peter Schiff has been saying that the Federal Reserve is going to take interest rates back to zero and launch another round of quantitative easing in order to reinflate the bubble economy after the next crash. The central bank successfully pulled this off after the 2008 crisis. By dropping rates to zero and holding them there for nearly a decade, and running three rounds of QE, the Fed has reinflated the real estate bubble, blown up a bond bubble and pumped up the stock market. But Peter said it’s not going to work the next time around. Instead, Fed monetary policy will tank the dollar and lead to an inflationary recession.

So, why can’t the Fed pull off another rescue? Peter explained why he thinks it’s not possible during an interview on the Tom Woods Show.

 

Peter admitted he didn’t think the Fed could rescue the economy in 2008.

I underestimated the ability of the Fed to get away with quantitative easing and for the world to basically accept this and to enable this.”

So today, we have even bigger bubbles than we did in 2006-2007.

The question is — the Fed did it before, can it do it again? Peter said he wouldn’t bet on it.

I would not want to bet that is possible given the enormity of the problem now.”

Peter said you just have to consider the sheer amount of intervention that would be necessary to reinflate the bubbles once they pop the next time.

The next round of quantitative easing is going to have to be much, much bigger than the last one. They took the balance sheet up to four-and-a-half trillion last time. They might have to take it up to 10 or 20 trillion this time. They may have to do two or three hundred billion of QE every month as opposed to 85 billion. And when they were doing it before, we had a lot of support. The Chinese were big buyers. The Russians were big buyers. You know, I don’t see that kind of appetite for US debt anymore. I don’t think we’re going to have a whole lot of help from those other countries who are already trying to minimize their exposure to the dollar now. I don’t think they’re really going to step it up in order to enable QE4.”

The other issue is federal government budget deficits. In the years leading up to the 2008 crash, Bush was running $250 or $300 billion deficits per year. During the crisis, the deficits ran up to over $1 trillion. We are already running $1 trillion deficits now. If the economy crashes, we could be looking at $3 trillion or $4 trillion deficits.

Is there any way the Federal Reserve can monetize $3 or $4 trillion per year of government debt without the dollar falling and without igniting a bigger increase in inflation?”

Peter said he thinks the scale is simply too enormous.

If the Fed tried to inject enough stimulus into this economy to try to reflate an even bigger bubble than the ones we already have I just think the economy dies of an overdose. We overdose on stimulus and we destroy the dollar. And then we have massive inflation.”

That will put the Fed between a rock and a hard place. Does it allow inflation to run? Or does it take action to stop it?

But what would be required to stop it would be so politically damaging in the short-run that they may opt not to stop it, which is even worse. It just happens a little bit later.”

Peter and Tom cover a number of other subjects during the interview, including the trade war, Trump badgering the Fed, whether Peter’s predictions are a “broken clock,” and Peter’s investment strategy.

end
Ted Butler..

Serious Inroads, But Still Unfinished Business

Theodore Butler | September 19, 2019 – 10:27am

By now, it would have been hard not to have read about the Justice Department’s landmark criminal indictments against three additional precious metals traders from JPMorgan. Two of the traders charged are current employees and include the head of global metals trading. The charges involve spoofing and market manipulation that extend back for nearly a decade. In a very serious turn, the Justice Department invoked the Racketeering and Corrupt Organization Act (RICO) and referred to the pattern of wrongdoing at JPMorgan as that of a criminal enterprise. I am grateful that the new charges validate virtually everything I have alleged about JPMorgan for more than ten years to the point where a subscriber quipped that the DOJ was plagiarizing my work.

Simply put, the Justice Department leveled the most serious (and deserved) charges against traders of JPMorgan possible, but stopped short of stepping over the critical line of charging the bank itself. This is not a knock on the Justice Department, whose case has been near flawless to this point. As much as I am convinced that JPMorgan has been the prime precious metals manipulator since 2008, indicting the bank for that would likely be a death sentence for JPMorgan with incomprehensible collateral damage to the financial system and society in general.

Another line that the Justice Department went right up to but didn’t cross was in not acknowledging the real crimes that JPMorgan has committed since it acquired Bear Stearns in 2008, and particularly since 2011. Sure, the many instances of spoofing cited – the entry of orders that are immediately cancelled and are solely intended to artificially move prices in a direction beneficial to the spoofer – are devoid of legitimacy and should be cracked down on. And there can be no question that the traders at JPMorgan raised the practice of spoofing to an art form unrivalled elsewhere. Even though spoofing came to be largely imbedded in JPMorgan’s culture as a result of it taking over Bear Stearns (according to the DOJ), to focus exclusively on spoofing would be to miss the big picture.

Spoofing came to be widely practiced at Bear Stearns out of necessity. As the largest concentrated short seller in COMEX gold and silver prior to its takeover by JPMorgan, Bear Stearns needed every dirty trading trick imaginable to maintain control of prices and steer the managed money technical funds in and out of positions. Spoofing went a long way to helping Bear Stearns manipulate silver and gold prices. In the end, however, spoofing and other dirty trading tricks weren’t enough to prevent silver and gold prices from rising sharply for the three months into March 2008, when gold hit $1000 and silver $21. Bear Stearns’ inability to meet as much as $2 billion in margin calls on its massive short positions was enough to put it under and for JPMorgan to take up the mantle as the largest COMEX silver and gold short (along with taking on some dirty tricksters from Bear).

JPMorgan stepped seamlessly into the role of price manipulator from Bear Stearns, not missing a beat and quickly manipulating silver and gold prices lower for the rest of 2008. After a couple of years of dominating and controlling silver and gold prices, never once taking a loss, only profits, JPMorgan ran into its own Bear Stearns’ moment when silver prices surged to near $50 in April 2011. But not only did JPMorgan avoid the fate that befell Bear Stearns in 2008, it uncovered a criminally genius solution to ever facing a future run up in silver and gold prices while holding massive COMEX short positions. The solution by JPMorgan was to buy as much physical metal as necessary to offset any damage a spike in silver prices would have on paper short positions.

But how could JPMorgan buy as much physical silver and gold as needed without driving prices sharply higher, thereby creating ruinous losses on its existing massive short positions? By taking its time and deploying a variety of physical acquisition methods and, most importantly, by maintaining continuous control of prices through outsized COMEX short positions, JPMorgan pulled off what would seem to have been impossible. It took more than eight years and more deception and dirty trading tricks than can be imagined, but at this point JPMorgan owns 850 million oz of physical silver and 25 million oz of gold.

The real crimes that JPMorgan has committed revolve around spoofing being used as a tool, but not as the end motive. If you add up all the spoofing gains alleged by the DOJ, you might come up with a few million dollars’ worth of illegal gains. I’m not suggesting that spoofing wasn’t illegal and worthy of prosecution, but that amount of money is chicken feed to JPMorgan. The real money is the many billions of dollars that JPMorgan made over the past decade in being the biggest counterparty to the managed money traders and for never having lost when adding short positions, always making only profits.

Then there are the prospective profits that will accrue to JPMorgan when silver and gold prices rise in earnest. As it stands, JPMorgan is already ahead by more than $7.5 billion on its physical gold holdings and stands to make tens of billions more when gold and silver prices take off for real. The few millions of dollars made off the spoofing charges brought by the DOJ is kid stuff and a side show.

So why doesn’t the Justice Department truly crack down on JPMorgan for the more serious crimes of extracting billions of dollars of cumulative profits in manipulative COMEX trading for a decade and the illegal accumulation of physical metal for the past 8 year? It’s not because the Justice Department (or the CFTC) is incompetent or unaware of what I just outlined; it’s because the consequences that may occur as a result of confronting JPMorgan for its real metal crimes are as serious in terms of potential financial system fallout as a nuclear war. No government official would or should ever take any action that threatens the financial well-being of tens and perhaps hundreds of millions of innocent bystanders. I couldn’t possibly be more convinced that JPMorgan is as guilty as I’ve alleged it to be and even I wouldn’t risk putting JPM out of business over it.

But not pushing JPMorgan over the brink conflicts mightily with the stark reality that silver is still manipulated in price by this bank and will be until JPMorgan is disallowed from shorting on the COMEX. That’s the unfinished business for the Justice Department, namely, to thread the needle between ending the silver manipulation and sufficiently punishing but not putting JPMorgan out of business in the process. It’s no easy task and it looks to me that the DOJ is progressing as well as can be expected.

However, it still remains that the price of silver is manipulated and is lower in price than it should be due to excessive and concentrated short selling by JPMorgan and a few other large banks. Where the price should be will be determined only when the concentrated short position in COMEX silver futures is in line with other commodities in terms of world production and consumption. The DOJ and CFTC and JPMorgan know this, but none can come out and acknowledge it. Instead, it looks like the DOJ is pressuring JPMorgan to quit its manipulative short selling ways by pressing it on spoofing.

It’s not necessary to put JPMorgan out of business to end the silver manipulation (no matter how justified that might be) and I would argue that might be the worst possible course for the Justice Department to follow. But not forcing JPMorgan to cease all new short selling in COMEX silver (and gold) might be just as bad. By its actions to date, as shown in Justice Department charging documents, JPMorgan has done nothing but abuse and undermine the integrity of our markets at every turn. To allow JPM to continue manipulating prices is unthinkable. Don’t put it out of business, just force JPMorgan to stop manipulating silver and gold prices by disallowing it to sell short.

As it turns out, we are at a particularly interesting juncture in the silver and gold markets presently. The blockbuster Justice Department announcement came as the COMEX futures market is structured with a massive number of commercial shorts, including by JPMorgan. As regular market observers know, such large commercial short positions usually presage a price decline in which the managed money traders sell and the commercials buyback short positions – the old wash, rinse and repeat manipulative COMEX cycle.

Therefore, it will be interesting to see if the Justice Department and CFTC sit by and allow JPMorgan and the other big commercial shorts to rig prices lower yet again and continue to allow the most serious market crimes to occur. Or will the regulators put some meaning to their recent charges and interrupt the manipulative process? Time and price will tell, but if the regulators sit by and do nothing to disallow yet another manipulative take down of price, it will undermine the regulators and reward JPMorgan – just what we don’t need.

As far as substantiating or refuting my allegations that JPMorgan has never taken a loss in COMEX trading and has accumulated massive amounts of physical metal, the Justice Department is uniquely qualified to ascertain whether this is true. CFTC concentration data from the Commitments of Traders report prove JPMorgan has never taken a loss, only profits in COMEX futures trading. As far as JPMorgan’s massive accumulation of physical metal, the Justice Department would have no problem in quickly establishing, with a few phone calls, the many ways JPMorgan has accumulated actual metal, as I previously outlined.

end
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 67.0948/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0896   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 13.62 POINTS OR 0.46%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 285.17 POINTS OR 1.07%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 83.74 POINTS OR 0.38%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 98.33/Euro RISES TO 1.1068

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.21/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.95/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 59.01 and Brent: 64.99

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.50%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.91% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.25%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.41: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.41

3k Gold at $1500.15 silver at: 17.86   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 16/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.01

3m oil into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.95 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9909 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0970 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.50%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.77% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.21%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7040..

US Futures, Bond Yields Drop As Traders Ask “Now What”

S&P equity futures slipped, trading in a tight range around 3,000 despite gains in Europe which helped nudge the MSCI world index higher on Thursday, after the Fed’s second interest rate cut and hint that QE4 is coming, while Japan and others kept their limited remaining powder dry.

 

In the aftermath of the Fed’s hawkish rate cut, we saw a barrage of central bank announcements, including:

  • The Bank of Japan maintained all policy settings as expected with rates kept at -0.10% and 10yr JGB yield target at around 0%, while it maintained forward guidance to keep current extremely low rates for extended period at least through Spring 2020. It also signalled it could add stimulus as early as next month but some traders had expected a move on Thursday after the Fed’s rate cut.
  • Brazil Central Bank cut the Selic Rate by 50bps to 5.50% as expected via unanimous decision, while it added that it sees inflation risks in both directions and reiterated the economic situation calls for stimulative rates.
  • SNB left rates unchanged at -0.75%, did not alter their assessment of the CHF from ‘highly valued’ and remain willing to intervene. SNB significantly cut their forecasts for both growth and inflation relating to 2019 and 2020. The bank also improved their tiering system for Swiss Banks. In reaction to the decision the CHF appreciated vs. EUR as some calls for a rate cut were unwound. Officials said the global low-rate environment has “become more entrenched and could persist for some time yet.” They will exempt 25 times min reserves from Nov. 1, up from 20 currently, and review the level monthly
  • The Bank of England concluded the trifecta of “unchangeds” by keeping rates on hold, while warning that uncertainty over Brexit could lead to disinflationary pressures so no need to hike.
  • Norway’s central bank stood out and broke further away from the pack, delivering its fourth interest-rate increase in a year in an effort to cool an economy stoked by oil investments.The bank hiked rates by 25bp to 1.5%, the bank have left their 2019 and 2020 rate paths unchanged and cut 2021 and 2022 path slightly. Bank’s assessment of the outlook and risk balance sees rates remainin unchanged in the period ahead, with Governor Olsen ascribing a 40% chance to a hike. In reaction to the hike the NOK strengthened against the EUR, before retracing to now being softer against the EUR on the implication that this is likely to be the last hike of the cycle.

Thursday’s barrage of monetary policy decisions came just as the OECD cut its world growth forecast to just 2.9% from 3.2%, now expecting the lowest growth in a decade, as intensifying trade conflicts take a toll on confidence and investment.

 

Looking at markets, Europe’s Stoxx 600 index pushed higher, led by banks, as a new round of TLTRO loans kicked in despite disappointing uptake with just €3.4BN allotted in TLTRO3.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares had ended down 0.5% as a 1% fall in Hong Kong and 1.1% drop in India offset 0.4% gains on Japan’s Nikkei and from China’s bluechip stocks. Asia’s equity benchmark erased earlier gains and was little changed following three days of losses. Markets performances were mixed in the region. Japan was the best-performer Thursday, with the Topix rallying as much as 1.2% before paring some gains after the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep its monetary stimulus unchanged. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell for a fourth day, led by AIA Group Ltd. and Hang Seng Bank Ltd. Elsewhere, India stocks were set for a third day of losses this week, as slowing economic growth and a simmering shadow banking crisis gave little impetus for investors to buy riskier assets.

“Strains to the macro backdrop should ease in the coming months as other central banks (ECB, BoJ) edge toward renewed monetary easing,” Simon Ballard, a macro strategist at First Abu Dhabi Bank, wrote in a note. New dovish pressures may also come from “a particularly disorderly Brexit, further oil market disruptions or a sharp decline in market liquidity,” he said.

In contrast to Europe’s upward shuffle, U.S. stock futures were pointing to modest 0.1%-0.2% falls for Wall Street later. The S&P 500 had reversed losses and ended broadly flat on Wednesday after Fed chief Jerome Powell said he did not see an imminent recession or think the Fed will adopt negative rates. The Fed had cut interest rates to 1.75%-2.00% in a 7-3 vote but made a point of saying U.S. labour market remains strong.

With central banks now in the rearview mirror, traders will turn their attention to signs that last week’s show of goodwill between the U.S. and China is gaining momentum as trade deputies meet Thursday and Friday in Washington ahead of higher-level meetings in mid-October. Meanwhile, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains in turmoil after Saudi Arabia blamed Iran for last Saturday’s attack on its oil installations.

In this vein, China’s Ambassador to US tweeted that it is extremely dangerous and irresponsible to base America’s policy on alarmism and label China as a strategic rival and adversary, while adding the decoupling of the two countries in trade and industrial development goes against globalization and suggested to decouple from China is to decouple from opportunities.

In rates, Treasuries advanced steady while European government bonds slipped. Two-year U.S. yields initially inched up to 1.75% before sliding, while Europe’s key 10-year German Bund yield was up around 2 basis points albeit still below highs hit last week and at a mind-boggling -0.49%. “This is not ‘QE4ever’ as we’ve heard it called,” analysts at RBC said of the Fed’s decision and signals. “We shouldn’t go too far in putting on QE-like trades”.

In FX trading, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell Thursday as the dollar weakened against most of its G-10 peers while Yen bulls took the currency as far as 107.79 to the U.S. dollar before it settled at 108.06 for a gain of 0.4% on the day. The move against the Aussie dollar had been as large as 1%. “There were large yen-buying orders before the BOJ, and that just carried through,” said Tohru Sasaki, head of Japan markets research at J.P. Morgan Securities in Tokyo.

The Norwegian krone also rallied after the Norges Bank hiked interest rates, but lost traction after a signal it was the last increase of the year. Elsewhere in the currency market, the Aussie fell 0.6% to $0.6790 after data showed the nation’s jobless rate rose slightly to 5.3% in August, bolstering expectations for the central bank to cut rates.

Among commodities, oil held gains amid contrasting reports about whether Saudi Arabia asked Iraq for crude to supply its domestic refineries. Gold advanced and Australia’s dollar slumped after the unemployment rate rose.

Today’s data include jobless claims and existing home sales. Darden is among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 3,003.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 390.57
  • MXAP down 0.06% to 158.82
  • MXAPJ down 0.5% to 508.93
  • Nikkei up 0.4% to 22,044.45
  • Topix up 0.6% to 1,615.66
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.1% to 26,468.95
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 2,999.28
  • Sensex down 1.3% to 36,088.61
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 6,717.48
  • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,080.35
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,497.91
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 98.32
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.7 bps to -0.493%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.1061
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 4.5 bps to 0.536%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 0.237%
  • Brent futures up 0.8% to $64.12/bbl

Top Headline News

  • The Swiss National Bank offered banks some relief from negative interest rates, saying it would exempt more of their reserves from the cost of the policy. On Thursday, officials said the global low-rate environment has “become more entrenched and could persist for some time yet.” They will exempt 25 times min reserves from Nov. 1, up from 20 currently, and review the level monthly
  • Norway’s central bank broke further away from the pack, delivering its fourth interest-rate increase in a year in an effort to cool an economy stoked by oil investments
  • The Bank of Japan will review its assessment of prices and the economy at its October meeting, spurring speculation it may ease further then, but stopped short of following the Federal Reserve in adding to its monetary stimulus immediately
  • Should a traumatic no-deal Brexit force the Bank of England to slash interest rates in the months ahead, at least one investor will be laughing. Money-market traders have quietly accumulated more than 1 million derivative contracts that will pay off if the U.K. central bank cuts rates by 50 basis points by September next year
  • Brexit from afar is looking like a disaster about to happen. One European official, watching the situation up close, compared it to two cars driving at high speed toward each other with each expecting the other to swerve out of the way first

Asian equity markets traded mixed as the region digested the fallout from the FOMC. Nonetheless, most of the overnight markets began positively with broad gains seen in the ASX 200 (+0.6%) aside from metal miners after gold prices retreated post-FOMC, while Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) initially coat-tailed on the gains in USD/JPY but then pulled back from highs after a reversal in the currency. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-1.0%) was subdued and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%.) traded choppy despite a firm liquidity effort by the PBoC and the HKMA lowering rates by 25bps in lockstep with the Fed, with underperformance Hong Kong led by energy names and as real estate continued to suffer from the political unrest, which resulted to the cancellation of National Day fireworks and China upping its security from its capital to the border with Hong Kong. Finally, 10yr JGBs are higher in a continuation of this week’s rebound with prices only briefly pausing for the BoJ policy announcement which proved to be uneventful, as the central maintained all policy settings as widely expected.

Top Asian News

  • BOJ to Review Prices and Economy After Standing Pat for Now
  • Japan Banks Welcome BOJ Inaction, Warn Against Future Rate Cuts
  • Japan Delays Export of Key Chipmaking Material to South Korea
  • Indonesia Cuts Rate for Third Month in Row to Bolster Growth

Major European bourses are modestly higher (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%), as markets digest yesterday’s Fed rate cut and navigate a flurry of G10 central bank activity, which has already seen the SNB hold rates and Norges hike by 25bps in European hours, with BoE ahead. Periphery bourses are the slight out performers, seemingly unperturbed by recent developments on the political front in both Spain and Italy. Sectors are broadly in the green, apart from the more defensive utilities and consumer staples sectors. Leading the gains is financials, with higher yields post-FOMC providing support; indeed Lloyds-TSB Group (+2.4%), Deutsche Bank (+1.3%), Société Générale (+2.8%) and Credit Suisse (+1.7%) are the best performers in their respective bourses. Swiss banks were, however, unreactive to the SNB decision, in spite of their decision to raise the exemption threshold for the banking sector from the current 20x to 25x level on 1st November; although, CapEco make the point that SNB’s tiering system was already a more generous system when compared to that announced by the ECB last week, so the most recent tweaks might not make all that much difference. In terms of other individual movers; Next (-4.0%) sunk after the Co. reported results that underwhelmed some expectations; while, United Utilities (-1.5%) are under pressure after the Co. was downgraded at Jeffries. Finally, John Wood Group (+2.2%) caught a bid being upgraded to outperform at Credit Suisse this morning.

Top European News

  • SNB Bows to Pressure From Banks for Relief From Negative Rate
  • Norway Delivers Rate Hike Most Economists Weren’t Expecting
  • U.K. Retail Sales Decline in August as Online Sales Fall
  • U.K. Report to Back Venture Capital Investments for Pensions

In FX, there were somewhat contrasting and perhaps even perverse moves in the Franc and Norwegian Krona given respective September policy decisions from the SNB and Norges Bank, as the former stood pat and latter delivered another 25 bp tightening having refrained from flagging this month specifically at the previous meeting in July. However, it seems that the devil was in the detail as a lower rate path and mainly external downside risks to the outlook implied no further normalisation, while the Bank’s Crown forecasts were also shaved from June’s levels and Governor Olsen subsequently assigned less than even odds to higher rates. Hence, having breached near term support at 9.8300, but stopping short of the 100 DMA (9.8080), Eur/Nok has rebounded towards pre-Norges Bank and intraday highs circa 9.9000 whereas Eur/Chf and Usd/Chf have extended post-SNB declines to almost 1.0950 and 0.9900 vs 1.1000+ and 0.9980+ at one stage. For its part, the SNB signalled unchanged rates for the forecast horizon and set even more generous exemption terms for Swiss banks in mitigation of NIRP that remains vital alongside direct currency intervention given that the Franc is still deemed highly valued.

  • JPY/EUR – The BoJ maintained current YYC parameters and guidance, as widely expected, but Governor Kuroda intimated that October’s policy deliberations could be more important as the impact of the global economic slowdown and Central Bank actions will be subject to closer scrutiny. However, the Yen has rebounded sharply from lows seen after the Fed’s ‘hawkish’ cut when Usd/Jpy rallied to around 108.45 and back above 108.00 as the DXY pares its gains to 98.275 vs 98.625 at the other extreme. Similarly, the single has regrouped and unwound its underperformance vs the Dollar to reclaim 1.1050 status, but the headline pair may now be stymied by hefty option expiries layered between 1.1000 and 1.1120-30 and totalling 8.3 bn.
  • GBP/CAD/NZD – All narrowly mixed against the Greenback, as the Pound continues to face stiff resistance around 1.2500 and failed to glean much direction from mixed UK retail sales data ahead of the BoE, or support via reports that written proposals to alter the WA have been sent to the EU. Elsewhere, the Loonie has bounced from just under 1.3300 with some traction from rebounding crude prices and the Kiwi is keeping tabs on the 0.6300 handle following firmer than expected NZ Q2 GDP data overnight.
  • AUD – The clear G10 laggard, as Aud/Usd loses grip of 0.6800 and Aud/Nzd recoils from 1.0800+ to lows of 1.0750 in wake of a worrying Aussie jobs report that ups the ante for RBA easing next month.
  • EM – In keeping with Sterling, the Rand has one eye on the SARB for any surprises, with Usd/Zar straddling 14.7000 and anticipating no change in rates, but looking for inspiration from the accompanying statements and guidance – for a more detailed preview of the event and BoE at noon please check out the Research Suite.

In commodities, crude markets initially took their cue from risk sentiment, but moved higher on a WSJ report that Saudi Arabia had reached out to Iraq for 20mln barrels of crude to plug gaps in its own production, potential indication the recent Saudi attacks are having an impact on their supply. Elsewhere on the geopolitical front; US Secretary of State Pompeo has called the Saudi attack “an act of war”, comments which seem to contrast somewhat with US President Trump’s decision yesterday to respond with tariffs rather than the military option. However, overnight US President did impress that “if the US has to do something it will without hesitation” but framed his decision not to strike Iran as a sign of strength. Elsewhere, Gold has firmed somewhat and has tested the USD 1500/oz handle at best, which it briefly lost yesterday post-FOMC. Meanwhile, Copper futures are uneventful just above potential support around the USD 2.6/lb level. Saudi Arabia reportedly reached out to Iraq for 20mln barrels of crude, WSJ reports citing sources; Aramco was seeking diesel, gasoline, and fuel oil for domestic use, and to preserve crude for exports

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Current Account Balance, est. $127.4b deficit, prior $130.4b deficit
  • 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 10.5, prior 16.8
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 213,000, prior 204,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.67m, prior 1.67m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 63.2
  • 10am: Leading Index, est. -0.1%, prior 0.5%
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales, est. 5.38m, prior 5.42m; MoM, est. -0.74%, prior 2.5%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Thankfully there were a few less pages to read from the FOMC statement last night. As expected the fed funds rate was cut by 25bps albeit with a 7-3 split (two in favour of no change and one in favour of a 50bp cut) with the IOER cut by 30bps however the dots were the main talking point initially. Indeed, the signal is a somewhat divided committee. The median dot shows no further cuts in the remainder of 2019 or 2020. However, 7 of the 17 dots favour one more 25bp cut this year, albeit no-one expects more than a 25bp cut. There are also 8 dots in 2020 which favour a fed funds rate 25bps below where it is now. What is interesting however is that there are 5 dots which are 25bps above the current rate for this year and 7 above the current rate for 2020. In fact, one of those in 2020 is 50bps above the current rate. So, one way of summing that up is that the doves aren’t particularly dovish and there is a clear group of hawks on the committee. The sharp sell-off across rates immediately following the statement certainly reflected that.

As for the statement itself, there was very little change. The reference to “muted inflation pressures” was kept despite CPI strengthening in recent weeks while the only real change of note was the reference to household spending rising at a “strong pace”. The summary of economic projections was a wash with the exception of 2019 growth being upgraded to 2.2%. As for Powell’s press conference, unlike previous meetings there weren’t all that many talking points. The general feeling was that Powell was very considered and balanced in his responses with a broad aim of not wanting to guide the market. That was particularly the case when going out of the way not to repeat the mid-cycle adjustment language. Our economists summed it up by saying that Powell reinforced the message that the Fed that continues to see a favourable baseline outlook, albeit one buffeted by significant downside risks from weak global growth and trade policy uncertainty. They continue to expect 75bps more of rate cuts through Q1 next year with a possible announcement also of a resumption of balance sheet growth next month. See their summary note here .

In terms of what markets did, treasury yields had been falling for much of the day leading into the meeting but by the time Powell was finished speaking had pretty much reversed. That was particularly the case at the short-end where 2y yields ended +3.7bps higher at 1.762% having traded as low as 1.660% seconds before the statement and dot plot was released. With 10y yields (-0.5bps) not quite fully reversing, that meant the 2s10s curve, which was as ‘steep’ as 9.0bps, flattened to 3.0bps. This morning it’s trading at similar levels. There’s also just over 2 cuts still priced in by the end of this year.

Meanwhile equity markets were initially much weaker seemingly in reaction to the dots, however recovered as Powell spoke. The S&P 500 ended +0.03% – a rare albeit modest gain on a Fed meeting day – however did trade as low as -0.91% intraday while the NASDAQ ended -0.11%. The fact that Powell sounded fairly upbeat about the domestic economy, all things considered, but also hinted that the Fed will react to weaker data probably explained the turnaround for equities. Banks (+0.66%) notably outperformed, with the short-end rates selloff and Powell’s pushback on negative rates helping. Elsewhere the USD index rose +0.31%, HY credit were little changed and Gold fell -0.49%.

So, with the Fed out of the way the baton passed to the BoJ this morning where as expected there was no change in policy. However the BoJ did call for a re-examination – specifically of prices and the economy – at next month’s meeting, specifically noting that “recently, slowdowns in overseas economies have continued to be observed and their downside risks seem to be increasing, the Bank judges that it is becoming necessary to pay closer attention to the possibility that the momentum toward achieving the price stability target will be lost. Taking this situation into account, the Bank will reexamine economic and price developments at the next MPM”. That raises the possibility then of further easing. Kuroda’s press conference is due shortly.

The yen has strengthened +0.56% following the statement while 10yr JGBs are down -2.9bps to -0.225%. The Nikkei is up +0.54% but pared earlier gains while equity markets elsewhere in Asia are mixed with the Kospi (+0.38%) up, Shanghai Comp flat and Hang Seng down -1.24%. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are trading down -0.28%.

Just in case you were craving a bit more central bank action, completing the relay today we’ve also got policy meetings here in the UK, along with Switzerland, Norway and South Africa. For the BoE, the consensus is for no policy change – a view shared also by our economists. Our colleagues do expect the committee to highlight two things however. The first is a deteriorating external outlook and the second is the rise in domestic risks. Overall though it’s hard to see any major departures from the MPC’s August stance. Don’t expect much excitement at those other central bank meetings today either, with no policy changes expected.

Back to yesterday, where prior to the FOMC meeting, as planned the Fed injected more liquidity into the overnight repo market, totalling $75bn. That full take-up of the repo facility saw the overnight GC repo rates trade around 2.175% which is obviously a long way from the 10% levels seen on Tuesday. So funding stresses have alleviated although not quite to a stage where the Fed feels completely comfortable. Another operation is planned for today for up to $75bn.

Meanwhile, the other big mover and shaker this week – the oil complex – was weaker for much of the day before WTI and Brent closed down -2.07% and -1.47% respectively. That reflected the various talk out of Saudi Arabia that crude exports would continue as normal. President Trump also weighed in by saying that sanctions on Iran would be ramped up, specifically tweeting that “I have just instructed the Secretary of the Treasury to substantially increase sanctions on the country of Iran”. Late afternoon Bloomberg headlines also hit the screens suggesting that Saudi Arabia called the attacks on the weekend ‘unquestionably’ sponsored by Iran.

Away from markets and geopolitics, the data very much played second fiddle with strong housing market numbers in the US being the highlight. Indeed housing starts rose a better than expected +12.3% mom (vs. +5.0% expected) and building permits rose +7.7% mom (vs. -1.3% expected). The latter included a fairly notable gain in single-family permits which tend to be less volatile. Here in the Europe the final August core CPI reading for the Euro Area was unrevised at +0.9% yoy, however in the UK the August inflation data broadly disappointed with core CPI in particular falling four-tenths to +1.5% yoy (vs. +1.8% expected). However, with real income growth at healthy levels still, that data is food for thought for the BoE. For completeness the STOXX 600 ended +0.02% yesterday and 10y Bunds were -3.6bps lower ahead of the Fed.

To the day ahead now, where, as noted above, next up in the central bank policy meeting queue is the BoE, SNB, Norges Bank and SARB. Datawise we’ve also got August retail sales data for the UK while in the US this afternoon we’ve got the Q2 current account balance, September Philly Fed business outlook, weekly jobless claims, August leading index and August existing home sales. Away from that the OECD is due to publish its interim economic outlook, while over at the ECB we’re due to hear from Coeure and Lautenschlaeger.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 13.62 POINTS OR 0.42%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 285.17 POINTS OR 1.07%   /The Nikkei closed UP 83.74 POINTS OR 0.38%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .50%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0948 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0948 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0896 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA/CHINESE AFFAIRS

China/Fed-Ex

China is reciprocating over the past mistakes by Fed Ex

(zerohedge)

FedEx Pilot Arrested In China; Accused Of Illegally Transporting Ammunition

A FedEx pilot was arrested in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou last week after flying deliveries throughout Asia from the Guangzhou airport, according to the Wall Street Journal.

 

A FedEx Express airliner at Hong Kong International Airport. Chinese authorities detained a FedEx pilot at the company’s regional hub at China’s Guangzhou airport. PHOTO: ALEXANDER SHCHERBAK/ZUMA PRESS

Todd A. Hohn, a former US Air Force pilot, was waiting to catch a commercial flight on Cathay Dragon airlines to his home in Hong Kong on September 12 when he was detained by authorities and accused of carrying “nonmetallic pellets used in low-power replica air guns” in a checked bag. Chinese authorities say he was illegally transporting ammunition – and have launched a criminal investigation, according to the report.

The detention comes as FedEx faces other investigations in China amid tense U.S.-China trade talks. Mr. Hohn was detained Sept. 12 by Chinese security officials who escorted him from a preboarding executive lounge, interviewed him at one of their facilities and retained his passport, cellphone and other communication devices, the people said.

Mr. Hohn was later moved to a hotel, and has been told he isn’t allowed to leave mainland China until the investigation concludes, the people familiar with the matter said. –Wall Street Journal

China has strict laws governing firearms, and the Journal notes that “it is potentially a criminal offense to possess airsoft guns, similar to BB pellet guns, which are sometimes sold by online retailers as toys,” but that it is “unclear that carrying airsoft pellets alone would be considered a violation.”

Reached briefly for comment at his hotel room on Thursday, Hohn referred all further questions to a family lawyer.

According to a FedEx union website, Hohn was part of a group of 21 relatively new pilots who joined the company – having been welcomed by a union membership committee on June 20, 2017. Hohn stepped down as commander of the 97th Air Mobility Wing at Altus Air Force Base in Oklahoma that same month.

In June, FedEx issued an apology after it misrouted packages from Huawei – including two which were sent to the company’s Memphis hub instead of to China after the shipper changed its internal systems to comply with new restrictions from the US Commerce Department.

Chinese officials launched an investigation after Huawei publicly complained.

Chinese police have since opened two investigations into FedEx. Last month, the Chinese police said they were investigating FedEx over the discovery of a gun in a package sent from the U.S. to China. FedEx said the incident dated back to June, and that it had notified the authorities about the shipment at the time. –Wall Street Journal

The company issued a second apology in June after a Huawei smartphone being shipped to the United States from the UK was returned to its sender, a British journalist.

And in early September, China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency reported that it had launched yet another probe after FedEX was suspected of illegally shipping knives to Hong Kong. FedEx claims that the shipment never left its city of origin and was promptly handed over to authorities.

end
CHINA/USA
THIS AFTERNOON
Markets did not like this:  Trump’s top China trade advisor says that tariffs could go to 100%
(zerohedge)

Stocks Slide After Trump’s Top China Trade Advisor Says “Tariffs Could Go To 100%”

Yesterday, moments ago Powell reminded president Trump that all he would need to see to cut rates further, would be additional weakening in the global economy, we – jokingly – said that any second now Trump would announce China tariffs would be hiked to 100%.

zerohedge@zerohedge

POWELL: IF ECONOMY WEAKENS, MORE EXTENSIVE CUTS MAY BE NEEDED

Trump tweets China tariffs hiked to 100% in 5… 4… 3….

134 people are talking about this

In retrospect, it turns out it wasn’t a joke, because following earlier trade talk “optimism” from Larry Kudlow as US and Chinese deputies begin their trade talks ahead of October senior level talks, stocks faded much of their earlier gains after the SCMP reported that according to Michael Pillsbury, described by US President Donald Trump as “the leading authority on China”, tariffs on Chinese goods “could to go 50 percent or 100 percent.

Well, just in case Powell needs to see the economy weakening, we no know how it will happen.

Some more details: according to Pillsbury’s SCMP interview, the United States is set to ramp up the pressure on China “if a trade deal is not agreed soon” noting that Washington has so far imposed only “low level tariffs” on the Asian giant.

According to Pillsbury, Trump had been “remarkably restrained in the pressure he has brought to bear on China in the trade field” – although we doubt Beijing would agree- adding that “the president has options to escalate the trade war” eyeing far higher tariffs: “These are low level tariffs that could go to 50 per cent or 100 per cent,” he said, adding that Trump’s critics were wrong to assume the president was “just bluffing” when he threatened an all-out trade war.

“There are other options involving the financial markets, Wall Street, you know, the president has a whole range of options,” Pillsbury warned.

For those unfamiliar, here is a reminder on Pillsbury’s background:

Pillsbury, the American director of the Centre on Chinese Strategy at the Hudson Institute in Washington, is known to speak to Trump regularly on China issues, but has said repeatedly that the president’s “most important adviser on China is himself”.

Then again, Pillsbury does not necessarily agree with that designation:

“I believe President Trump uses social media, especially on China, to convey his thinking. So I reject the idea that I or anyone else is some kind of adviser to him on China,” he said. “His focus is revealed frequently in the tweets that I think everybody should take very seriously as presidential statements.”

Whatever their relationship, the report, which hit just after noon ET, top-ticked the market, and sent the Emini sliding from a session high of 3,022 back to around 3,010 as traders once again remember that for stocks to surge even higher on the back of lower rates and/or QE, they first have to tumble amid trade war escalation which forces the Fed to ease even more.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

The Bank of England warns on Brexit uncertainty as they keep rates unchanged at .75%.  They state that their inflation is getting less and it may necessitate further easing if a BREXIT occurs

(zerohedge)

Bank of England Keeps Rates Unchanged, Warns On Brexit Uncertainty

As expected, the Bank of England kept rates on hold at 0.75% in a unanimous decision, while warning again that uncertainty surrounding Brexit may weaken inflation forcing more easing in the future.

Bank of England

@bankofengland

MPC voted unanimously to keep at 0.75%

View image on Twitter

In line with recent decision, the BOE linked its monetary policy to the outcome of Brexit saying that “political events could lead to a further period of entrenched uncertainty,” and adding that “the longer those uncertainties persisted,” the more likely demand would remain below potential and “domestically generated inflationary pressures would be reduced.” So why should the BOE to step in and hike rates?

 

As part of its Brexit-linked guidance, the BOE said that in the event of a smooth Brexit and some recovery in global growth, the MPC maintains its guidance that it would be appropriate to carry out rate rises at a gradual pace and to a limited extent. However, In the event of a period of further entrenched uncertainty over the nature of the UK’s eventual trading relationship with the EU, domestically generated inflationary pressures could be reduced as demand growth remains below potential (with RanSquawk noting that the emphasis on entrenched uncertainty was a new addition to the text). The monetary policy committee also maintained that in the event of a no deal Brexit, the monetary policy response would not be automatic and could be in either direction.

Increased uncertainty about the nature of EU withdrawal meant that the economy could follow a wide range of paths over the coming years,” the minutes said. The BOE’s response to any outcome “would depend on the balance of the effects of Brexit on demand, supply and the sterling exchange rate.

The minutes were the strongest clue yet as to how policy makers are bracing for extensions to the Brexit deadline. They reiterated that the response to no deal wouldn’t be automatic, and that if the departure goes smoothly a series of gradual and limited rate hikes would be needed over the next few years.

Some other observations:

  • Domestic growth: The committee judges that underlying growth has slowed, but remains slightly positive. Q2 GDP growth fell 0.2% in Q2 (MPC forecast was for 0%), Q3 growth is now expected at 0.2%. (Prev. view of 0.3%). Increased government spending for 2020-21 could raise UK GDP by around 0.4% over the forecast horizon, all else equal
  • Global Growth: Since the previous meeting the US-China trade war has intensified, and the outlook for global growth has weakened  
  • Inflation: CPI is expected to remain slightly below the 2% target in the near-term  
  • Labour/wages: The Labour market appears to remain tight, but does not appear to be tightening further
  • Slack: Recently, entrenched Brexit uncertainties and slower global growth have led to the re-emergence of a margin of excess supply

Prime Minister Boris Johnson says the U.K. will leave the European Union with or without a deal on a transition on Oct. 31, even though Parliament has legislated to force a delay if no deal is reached. The turmoil puts the BOE in limbo, with the fate of the economy hanging in the balance.

Heading into the announcement, cable slumped to session lows, and held its losses after the announcement, trading 0.2% lower on the day at 1.2450, versus 1.2500 day high; Earlier in the session, cable was supported earlier amid broad dollar weakness; gilts steady, short sterling strip is unchanged.

END

 

ECB/Switzerland

With the ECB going further down NIRP, the Swiss also have decided to lower their deposit rates.  They have now started to charge wealthy clients for deposits

(zerohedge)

The Rich Getting Poorer? Swiss Banks Begin Charging Wealthy Clients For Deposits

For years, European banks were leery of passing on the ECB’s negative deposit rate to their clients for fears of deposit flight and other unintended consequences, in the process being forced to “eat” the difference and impacting their interest income.

Source: Bloomberg

Swiss lenders, many of them focused on wealth management, have to weigh the prospect of continuing to lose money on the cash deposits against imposing fees that could prompt some of their most valuable customers to jump ship.

However, after five years of NIRP, and with the ECB set to unleash even more negative rates in the immediate future, one bank finally took a stand earlier this summer when UBS announced plans to charge a negative interest rate on wealthy clients, those who deposit more than CHF 2 million with the largest Swiss bank.

And now, two months later, as rates fall ever more negative, Bloomberg reports that Credit Suisse also plans to impose charges on its  wealthiest clients in order to spread the pain of negative interest rates.

Credit Suisse had warned this was coming:

“In Switzerland, we are considering measures on deposits to mitigate pressure of negative interest rates,” Tidjane Thiam, Credit Suisse CEO said during a discussion of the bank’s half-year results. And like UBS, the Credit Suisse levy would be “targeted on people . . . that measure their cash balances in millions.”

And now, according to a person with knowledge of the matter, Bloomberg reports that Credit Suisse expects to start charging for Swiss franc deposits after imposing a 0.4% fee on euro accounts of more than 1 million euros.

Whether such negative rates encourage savers to spend their money as central banks have been hoping all along, remains to be seen. In any case, one thing is certain: the unintended consequences of passing on the most destructive monetary policy onto end consumers and savers, will be dire and widespread, and could potentially result in the next financial crisis which, with some luck, will also be the last one.

For now, however, keep an eye on cryptocurrencies. The Swiss Franc has acted in sync with Bitcoin as a safe-haven:

Source: Bloomberg

But, with both Credit Suisse and UBS now charging, we wonder if that relationship will shift, because, last we checked, there was no cost, and no way to impose punitive rates, to keeps one’s savings in bitcoin and its peers, which should have obvious consequences on its price.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Israel

Meet Israel’s new Kingmaker, Avigdor Lieberman.  If you thought that Netanyahu was war like wait until you see his credentials

(Michael Snyder)

Meet Israel’s New “Kingmaker” & Why War With Hamas Is Imminent

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream,

Last November, Avigdor Lieberman resigned as Israel’s defense minister when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to reject Lieberman’s plan for a military operation in Gaza and agree to a ceasefire with Hamas instead.  At the time, Lieberman called the ceasefire a “surrender to terrorism”, and of course it didn’t last very long at all.  Hamas has continued to bombard Israel with rockets in the months since then, and this has once again brought Israel and Hamas to the brink of war.  But everything was on hold until Tuesday’s election, and it appears that the outcome of that election is going to make war with Hamas much, much more likely.

According to the exit polls, the Blue and White party led by Benny Gantz and Netanyahu’s Likud will win about the same number of parliamentary seats.  But neither of them will be able to come close to forming a majority without Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party, and that makes Lieberman Israel’s new “kingmaker”.  The following comes from the BBC

Exit polls following Israel’s second general election in five months suggest the result is too close to call.

The centrist Blue and White alliance of former military chief Benny Gantz is projected to win between 32 and 34 seats, and PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party 30 to 33 seats.

Yisrael Beiteinu party leader Avigdor Lieberman may end up being kingmaker.

This gives Lieberman an extraordinary amount of leverage, and he has already stated that he plans to use that leverage to force Likud and the Blue and White party into “a national-unity government”.  The following comes from the Jerusalem Post

Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman promised on Tuesday night that his party would fulfil its campaign vow to ensure the establishment of a national-unity government without the ultra-Orthodox and religious-Zionist parties.

“We have only one option. A liberal, national, broad unity government made of Yisrael Beytenu, Likud, and Blue and White,” said Liberman speaking above raucous cheers of jubilation at the party’s election party late Tuesday night.

Don’t be misled by Lieberman’s use of terms such as “liberal”, because the truth is that he is the number one war hawk in all of Israeli politics.

In fact, he makes Netanyahu look like a dove in comparison.  When Netanyahu refused to go to war with Hamas last November, Lieberman promptly resigned as defense minister.  And since that time, he has been telling anyone that would listen what needs to be done in Gaza.

For example, he made the following statements in March

“Today, when the military enters Gaza, it will have significantly better capabilities than the Second Lebanon War. But in the end, when you embark on such a campaign, you want to ensure the safety of the soldiers,” he said. “Terror always has a bottom. In order to dry out terror, we must reach the critical mass. You have to kill thousands, arrest thousands more, and the rest will disperse.”

But, he said, “The reality in Gaza is that the group has terror infrastructures with military capabilities, and this is a very problematic situation. We have to destroy the military infrastructure in Gaza, and it will not be by a political move or only by airstrikes.”

And he has been very outspoken about the fact that Netanyahu “personally torpedoed” his plans “to deal with Gaza”…

Former Defense Minister MK Avigdor Liberman said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu personally torpedoed plans to strike Gaza during a significant escalation in violence between Israel and Hamas in November.

“Netanyahu personally torpedoed the plans,” the Chairman of Yisrael Beytenu told Ben Caspit at the Maariv Security Conference on Wednesday. “We have enough tools to deal with Gaza and I had a full plan.”

In this election, it looks like Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party will roughly double the number of seats they hold in parliament, and I guarantee you that Lieberman will not join any coalition unless he is assured that Israel will invade Gaza.

In the days leading up to the election, I think that Netanyahu realized that he was losing votes to Lieberman, and that may be why he said that it looks like Israel has “no other choice” other than to invade Gaza.  In the end, that didn’t stop many Israelis from voting for Lieberman instead, and now Lieberman has more political power than ever.

If Netanyahu had moved to crush Hamas earlier, he might not be fighting for his political future now.  The Israeli people have grown very weary of rockets constantly being fired at them from the south, and an increasing number of Israelis want someone that will take decisive action.  So it is not exactly a surprise that someone like Lieberman has experienced a surge in popularity.

So what should we expect next?

After the formation of a government, we should expect Israel to launch a military operation inside Gaza at some point after the upcoming Jewish holidays.  Of course this would have the potential of sparking a much wider regional conflict, but the Israeli people are simply not going to put up with the endless rocket attacks coming from Gaza any longer.

And of course all of this is happening at the same time that a military conflict between the United States and Iran is potentially looming.  World War 3 could literally erupt at any time, and once it starts, the Middle East will never be the same again.

For Hamas, the Israeli election could not have gone any worse.

If either Likud or the Blue and White party had won a landslide victory, there would have been a slight possibility that war could have been avoided.

But now Lieberman is in the catbird seat, and that means that Gaza is about to get flattened.

 

 

END

Israel

A superb commentary from Michael Snyder as he lays out possible scenarios as to how Netanyahu can retain the Prime Ministership in Israel

(zerohedge)

 

There Are 2 Ways That Benjamin Netanyahu Could Remain Prime Minister Of Israel

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

In the aftermath of the tightest election that Israel has seen in a long time, headlines all over the world are boldly declaring that “the Netanyahu era is over”.  But that is not necessarily true.  At this point it is going to be exceedingly difficult for anyone to put together a governing coalition, and as I will explain in this article, there are still a couple of ways that Benjamin Netanyahu could hold on to power.  This is a drama that is probably going to take an extended period of time to unfold, and Avigdor Lieberman is in the catbird seat.  The decisions that he makes in the coming days are going to be absolutely critical.

Let’s start by talking about the election results.  With over 90 percent of the vote counted, the Blue and White party (Kahol Lavan) and Likud have almost the same number of seats

With 91 percent of the votes counted, Kahol Lavan has won 32 out of 120 Knesset seats, with Likud behind with 31 seats. Netanyahu’s bloc, comprised of right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties, currently stands at 55 seats. The center-left bloc has 56 seats.

Avigdor Lieberman, whose Yisrael Beiteinu party is projected to have nine seats, is expected to be the election’s kingmaker. On Wednesday morning, he reiterated his support for a “broad liberal unity government,” which would include Yisrael Beiteinu, Likud and Kahol Lavan.

It may look like the Blue and White Party is just a few seats away from establishing a governing coalition, but that is not true at all.

The “56 seats” projected above includes the 13 seats won by the Joint List of Arab parties, and Benny Gantz has already ruled out any coalition that includes them.

Plus, if Gantz tried to include them in any coalition, he would immediately lose any hope of attracting Lieberman.

So at this point, it appears exceedingly unlikely that Gantz can get to the 61 seats that he needs to become the prime minister.

Of course things don’t look promising for Netanyahu either, and as a result he felt forced to cancel his visit to the UN next week

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday canceled a visit to the United Nations General Assembly in New York next week amid political uncertainty in Israel, where he appeared to fall short of a government majority in national elections.

With just 55 seats, Netanyahu’s coalition is 6 seats short of a governing majority, and so the answer would seem to be to pull in Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party.

But Lieberman and Netanyahu had a major falling out last November when Netanyahu refused to go to war with Hamas.  Lieberman promptly resigned as defense minister, and he now says that he will not join any coalition if Netanyahu is the prime minister.

Things certainly look bleak for now, but could it be possible that Netanyahu could find a way to repair that relationship?

Maybe, but he would almost certainly have to give Lieberman just about everything that he wants, and that would include a military invasion of Gaza.  Lieberman is literally holding Netanyahu’s political future in his hands, and he knows it.  He may never have this sort of leverage ever again, and Lieberman is the sort of politician that will squeeze as much juice out of this moment as he possibly can.

If Netanyahu can persuade Lieberman to join his coalition, and that is a very big “if”, then Netanyahu will get another term as prime minister.

The other way that Netanyahu could remain prime minister is if nobody is able to form a coalition and another election is held a few months from now.

A lot can change in a few months, and Netanyahu could try to rectify the mistakes that he made this time around.  In an article that he posted before the election, Jerry Golden explained why so many conservative Israelis are upset with Netanyahu

A lot of Israelis are very upset with Netanyahu for not taking out Hamas after the last 700 missiles fired into our civilian population from Gaza. He knows he is in trouble and many of us here are very concerned that because of the dissatisfaction with him the liberals will win the election tomorrow.

He is now saying if he wins he will annex all the land of Judea and Samaria and even Hebron, along with the Jordan Valley. The problem is he has had around ten years to do all these and didn’t. Now many believe it is just out of desperation that he is saying these things “again”.

If no governing coalition is formed, Netanyahu could theoretically use the time period before the next election to conduct a military invasion of Gaza.  This would win him back a large number of conservative votes, and that might be enough to propel him to another term as prime minister.

In any event, it appears that a military invasion of Gaza is probably coming sooner rather than later, and that means that our relationship with Israel is likely to be a very hot political issue during the 2020 U.S. election cycle.

Unfortunately, anti-Semitism is on the rise all over the nation.  In fact, one recent study found that anti-Israel attitudes are rising dramatically on our college campuses

Direct targeting of Israel’s supporters for harm, especially Jewish students, reached alarming rates: acts accusing Jewish and pro-Israel students of supporting racism, genocide and other evils more than doubled; 47% increase linking Jewish and pro-Israel students to “white supremacy”; attempts to exclude Jewish and pro-Israel students from campus activities more than doubled, with expression calling for the total boycott or exclusion of pro-Israel students from campus life nearly tripling.

Israel is roughly the size of New Jersey, it has a population of less than 10 million people, and yet it is constantly at the center of the world’s attention.  Millions upon millions of people greatly love Israel, millions upon millions of peo

 

Michael Snyer perfeple greatly hate Israel, and it is going to play a critical role in the global drama that is currently unfolding all around us.

And as this drama continues to play out in the years ahead, it is entirely possible that Benjamin Netanyahu will still be the prime minister.

We shall see what happens during the coming days, but the truth is that this game is far from over.

end

Extreme food for thought as to who is really behind the Aramco attacks

(courtesy Brandon Smith)

 

6.Global Issues

CANADA

As of now there are three images of Trudeau wearing “blackface”.  I do not think it is racist but somehow the media is pouncing on Trudeau.  So it looks like the powers to be what him out

(zerohedge)

Third Image Surfaces Of Trudeau Wearing ‘Blackface’

Following last night’ revelation that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wore ‘brownface’ during a yearbook photo from a school he taught at until 2001, several other photos and video purporting to show the PM in ‘black/brownface’ have been unearthed by the press. The most recent to hit is a video showing what appears to be a high school-aged Trudeau wearing what looks like head to toe ‘blackface’ makeup.

During an apology released last night, Trudeau confessed that he had worn the ‘makeup’ on several other occasions, and that there might be other images, including snaps from a high school talent show where Trudeau sang Harry Belafonte’s “the Banana Boat Song (Day Oh)” in blackface.

After the corruption scandal involving SNC-Lavalin broke, Trudeau’s poll ratings slid, but they haven’t moved much from lows they reached earlier this year.

Trudeau and his Liberal Party are still tied with the Conservatives, with 34% of the vote each, according to the latest poll (which, of course, took place before the scandal was made public).

As one twitter wit pointed out, Trudeau probably should have worked up a better strategy for getting this news in front of the public.

The video, obtained exclusively by Global News shows Trudeau covered in what appears to be ‘blackface’ makeup raising his hands in the air while laughing, sticking his tongue out and making faces. He’s wearing a white T-shirt, and his jeans are ripped at the knees. The extremely childish display was made worse by the fact that Trudeau’s limbs, including his arms and legs, are also covered in makeup.

The video doesn’t appear to be have been shot at the same location as where the other photos were taken.

end

This is the third image of him to be verified by the Liberal Party’s comms department.

The Liberal party referred Global News to his Wednesday night apology when asked about the new video.
Trudeau apologized Wednesday, saying that at the time, he didn’t think his actions were racist. Now, he said, he recognizes wearing brownface is racist and regrets his actions.

“I shouldn’t have done that,” he said. “I should have known better but I didn’t and I’m really sorry.”

Another photo has been produced of Trudeau in the ‘Arabian Nights’ getup that was reportedly found in an old school newspaper.

In the second photo, Trudeau has his arms around what appears to be two Sikh colleagues.

Then, of course, there’s the original, where three lovely ladies are flanking Trudeau, who is apparently reveling in his status as the PM’s son.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh made an emotional statement after the first photo was made public, bashing Trudeau for his offensive comments.

Singh said it’s up to Canadians, not him, to decide whether Trudeau deserves forgiveness.

“I have to really point out what we’re seeing now is an ongoing pattern of behavior that’s really going to hurt Canadians,” he said. “They’re going to see the prime minister mocking the realities that so many Canadians live with. And it is not a joke.”

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1068 UP .0039 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.95 DOWN 0.492 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2454   DOWN   0.0016  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3278 DOWN .0019 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 39 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 13.62 POINTS OR 0.46% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 285.17 POINTS OR 1/07%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,50%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 285.17 POINTS OR 1.07%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 13.62 POINTS OR 0.46%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 50% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 83.74  POINTS OR 0.38%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1500.00

silver:$17.79-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.77% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.21 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 98.33 UP 23 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.27% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.21%  UP 3   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.25%//UP 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.89 UP 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 64 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.51% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.40% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1044  UP     .0016 or 16 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.01 DOWN .423 OR YEN UP 42  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2476 UP .0007 POUND UP 7  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 44 basis points to 1.3254

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0965    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  67.0979  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7083 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.21%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.78 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.22 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.38 DOWN 18  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 42.37  0.58%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 68.08 POINTS OR .55%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 38.43 POINTS 0.68%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 97.60 POINTS or 1.08%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 180.54 POINTS OR 0.82%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 58.47 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 64.49 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.88  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.30 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 30 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.51 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  58.30//

 

 

BRENT :  64.55

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.79…down one basis pt.

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.23.. down one basis pt…

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1044 ( UP 15   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.03 DOWN .404 (YEN UP 41 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.35 DOWN 21 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2532 UP 62  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7159

 

 

the Russian rouble 64.05   UP 0.14 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 14 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3262 DOWN 38 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0965  (ONSHORE)

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.1016 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.51%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 52.29 POINTS OR 0.19%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 5.49 POINTS OR 0.07%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  14.05 CLOSED UP .10

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.155%//libor rising again

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Pump-n-Dump As Quad-Witch Looms, Liquidity Crisis Continues

Billions more in immediate liquidity, a promise of moar to come, but indications are that things are not improving and stocks gave up their early gains… somebody do something!!

First things first, The Fed increased its liquidity provision once again today and EFF-IOER continues to be out of control…

Source: Bloomberg

Since The Fed cut rates, stocks are outperforming, but gave back their hyped up gains considerably today…

 

But the odds of a trade deal tumbled after hawkish comments on tariffs from Washington…

Source: Bloomberg

And this didn’t help from The Global Times: “Both China and the US should cherish the current talks. Many US officials easily misread China’s goodwill, think it shows Beijing’s weakness. China doesn’t like talking tough before the negotiations, but I know China is not as anxious to reach a deal as the US side though.”

Chinese stocks managed gains on the back of The Fed’s promises but remain red on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks rallied back to unchanged on the week today…

Source: Bloomberg

US equity indices (apart from Trannies) started the day off exuberantly extending yesterday’s Fed-Induced euphoria – but trade comments spoiled the party – Nasdaq managed gains, S&P unch…

NOTE – US equities reversed around the EU close

Source: Bloomberg

S&P 500 algos were all about 3,000 once again…

Banks eased back from their gains yesterday as they reached a key resistance level…

Source: Bloomberg

Momo extended its gains relative to value today…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks decoupled from bonds, gold, and the dollar early on…

Source: Bloomberg

 

US Treasury yields fell 2bps across the entire curve today…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields continued to slide after peaking last Friday…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar erased all of the supposed “hawkish cut” gains from yesterday…

Source: Bloomberg

Offshore yuan tumbled after tagging the fix briefly after The Fed move yesterday…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos dumped and pumped in the last 24 hours but Ethereum continues to lead the week… (but the these of Altcoin outperformance continues)

Source: Bloomberg

A quiet day in commodityland for a change with modest gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold futures bounce back above $1500…

But Cheese-flation is rife…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, if you think you had a bad day?

*TRUDEAU: ‘WARY OF BEING DEFINITIVE’ ON NUMBER OF INCIDENTS

Don’t forget, it’s Quad Witch tomorrow – so hold on to your hats – as S&P 500 looks pinned around 3,000…

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

THE FED IS LOSING CONTROL OVER INTEREST RATES!! We now witness the new Effective Funds rate trading way above IEOR, a full 45 basis points. We basically have a lack of lquidity in the system.

(zerohedge)

Fed Funds Prints 2.25%, Breaching Target Range, As IOER Spread Explodes

With the Fed’s repo operation oversubscribed for the second day in a row, as $9BN in liquidity requests remained unfulfilled by the $75BN operation, it is perhaps not a surprise that as the funding shortage persists, today’s effective fed funds rate printed at 2.25%, which while down from 2.30% yesterday, was for the second day in a row above the top end of the range, in this case by 25bps above the top of the Fed’s new rate corridor of 1.75% – 2.00% (when accounting for yesterday’s 25bps rate cut).

 

Furthermore, now that the Fed’s Interest on Excess Reserves was cut by 30bps on Wednesday to 1.80%, it means that the effective Fed Funds rate is now a record 45bps above the IOER.

 

As a reminder, EFF should trade inside of, or at worst, on top of the IOER rate, confirming once again that the Fed’s attempts to normalize the market plumbing are failing as the market demands a far more aggressive reserve injection, one in the form of POMO (i.e. QE).

END

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Existing home sales are rising at the fastest pace in two years due to lower interest rates.  The question is whether the banks can keep providing liquidity

(zerohedge)

Existing Home Sales Rise At Fastest Rate In Over 2 Years

On the heels of tumbling mortgage rates, existing home sales jumped 1.3% MoM in August (notably better than the expected 0.7% drop) pushing the annual rise to +2.6% – the biggest rise in sales since May 2017.

Source: Bloomberg

This is the highest level of existing home sales SAAR since March 2018.

Source: Bloomberg

And all this as the median home price rose 4.7% from last year to $278,200 as multi-family units led the rise in sales (+1.7% MoM) vs +1.2% MoM for single-family homes.

The question is – how sustainable is this improvement given the carnage in bond markets in September?

end

 

-END-

The Philly Fed mfg index drops to 12.0 in Sept after registering a strong 16.8 in August. All manufacturing numbers seem to be falling except housing

(Philly Fed/Market Watch)

Philly Fed manufacturing index drops to 12.0 for September, but tops forecasts

The Philly Fed mfg index drops to 12.0 in Sept after registering a strong 16.8 in August. All manufacturing numbers seem to be falling except housing

(Philly Fed/Market Watch)

Sept 19, 2019 8:39 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

The numbers: The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s manufacturing index fell to 12.0 in September after registering a reading of 16.8 in August.

Any reading above zero indicates improving conditions. Economists polled by MarketWatch expected a reading of 10.0.

What happened: The indexes for general activity and new orders fell, while the indexes for shipments and employment increased, the Philly Fed said.

The survey’s future general activity index moderated but continues to suggest growth over the next six months.

The big picture: The manufacturing sector has been hurt by U.S.-China trade tensions, helping to drive the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell to 49.1% in August. That reading below 50% indicates a contraction in activity.

Meanwhile, the Empire State factory index barely held above zero for September, with any reading above zero indicating improving conditions.

What they’re saying: “Assuming softer readings in the remaining surveys for the month, we think that would be broadly consistent with an essentially unchanged reading of 49 for the national ISM factory index. We should note, though, that the Empire State survey on Monday surprised us modestly on the high side,” said Lou Crandall, chief economist for Wrightson ICAP, in a note.

-END-

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

As we pointed out yesterday, we have a huge liquidity problem in the USA. Today’s PMO reading again showed a huge demand for dollars and there is just not enough of those paper bills in the system to satisfy demand. The only solution is QE4.

(zerohedge)

Liquidity Shortage Getting Worse: Fed’s Repo Oversubcribed Even More As Funding Demand Jumps

For those hoping that the dollar shortage and overnight funding crunch would ease on the third day after the G/C repo rate exploded as high as 10%, we have bad news: it has not.

As we warned earlier today, when we previewed the result of today’s repo outcome, the only question would be whether the amount of bids submitted into today’s operation would be higher or lower than yesterday’s $80.05BN to get a sense of whether the funding pressure is easing. The answer: with $83.875BN in total bids submitted, not only was the $75BN operation oversubscribed again, but the total liquidity shortfall rose by almost $4 billion compared to Wednesday morning.

Furthermore, the fact that the operation was again oversubscribed means that once again there was one or more participants who did not get up to €9 billion in the critical liquidity they needed, and that the Fed will see a chorus of demands by everyone (because just like with the discount window “stigma”, nobody will dare to be singled out as the party seeking repo funds) to either expand the size of its operations, implement a fixed operation and/or transition to permanent open market operations, i.e. QE, as Powell hinted he may do yesterday.

By comparison this is what yesterday’s repo operation looked like:

Both of these are over 50% greater than the $53.15BN repo operation conducted on Tuesday.

What is immediately notable is that except for agency paper, there was a greater use of Treasury ($51.6N to $56.3BN) collateral, while Mortgage-backed dipped slightly ($27.8BN to $26.15BN). Additionally no agency paper was used as collateral in today’s repo, down from Wednesday’s $0.7BN.

We now await today’s effective fed funds print to see if it will again print above the top of the new fed funds range (2.00%), and whether the overnight repo rate will reverse its earlier drop as it is becomes clear that the funding crisis is nowhere near over.

* * *

Earlier:

As the Fed pre-announced late on Wednesday, moments ago the New York Fed open markets desk started its daily overnight repo operation to provide liquidity to the financial system. It comes as funding markets appear to have settled down overnight, with the overnight general collateral repo rate opening at 2.25% before dropping as low as 1.95%-2.00% according to ICAP, while the SOFT rate dropping sharply from the mid-5% to 2.55%, which however remains quite elevated relative to the new Fed Funds range of 1.75%-2.00%

The market will be looking at the amount of repos tendered to the Fed and whether the operation will again be oversubscribed; as a reminder, on Tuesday the repo received $53BN in bids, which jumped 50% on Wednesday to just over $80BN, while the operation remains capped at $75BN. Should the total notional remain in this ballpark it will suggest that funding stress remains.

END

There seems to be a fraud here that has left many small businesses scrambling for money after 35 million dollars of payroll money disappears. This has caused massive problems for 400 employees who have written cheques on non existent payroll money.

(zerohedge)

Small Businesses Left Scrambling After $35 Million Disappears In Massive Payrolls Fraud

A rumored fraud at a small payrolls processing company located in remote Clifton, New York, drained the bank accounts for thousands of employees at companies that use its service. According to WSJ, money intended for employee paychecks and tax payments disappeared after an online payrolls company known as MyPayrollHR mysteriously folded.

All of a sudden, roughly 8,000 workers at 400 companies who relied on the service to get their paychecks by direct deposit saw hundreds of dollars taken out of their accounts instead of being deposited into their accounts, according to Nacha, the organization that oversees the ACH Network used to move money from one bank account to another.

James LaFlamme

 

Small business owners were left scrambling, CBS News reported. And many of their employees couldn’t pay their rent.

The Hometown Diner in Rindge, New Hampshire, is closed on Tuesdays – that’s when owner Bonnie Rosengrant pays her 23 employees. Today was the first time in days she was able to do that.

“It was very hard because I know a lot of my employees are paycheck to paycheck,” she said.

Rosengrant was surprised to learn that none of her employees had been paid because MyPayrollHR had folded, taking its customers’ assets (some $35 million) with it.

The FBI have launched an investigation into a suspected fraud at the company, and a team of agents have raided the upstate New York home of Michael Mann, MyPayrollHR’s owner.

In a tweet sent earlier this week, the FBI’s Albany bureau asked all business owners impacted by the fraud to fill out a questionnaire.

FBI Albany

@FBIAlbany

As we continue to seek information regarding the alleged activities of MyPayrollHR and its affiliates, the is asking all impacted business owners to please fill out the questionnaire linked below. https://www.fbi.gov/MyPayrollHRVictims 

Seeking Victim Information in MyPayrollHR Investigation | Federal Bureau of Investigation

The FBI is seeking victim information from businesses that have suffered financial losses due to the activities of MyPayrollHR, Valuewise Corporation, and related companies.

fbi.gov

Mann’s attorney, Michael Koenig, said his client is cooperating with investigators, and will continue to do so. “Michael Mann has voluntarily and proactively met with and is cooperating with the U.S. attorney’s office in order to fully address the consequences of recent events.”

What exactly happened remains unclear, and some of the employees impacted by the MyPayrollHR’s closure are joining a class-action lawsuit, arguing that the incident caused them to be late with rent and credit-card payments.

Meanwhile, many of the business owners who were impacted were forced to take out loans to cover the shortfall, per WSJ.

Mike Walls, the owner of a home-care agency and an assisted-living facility in Lake Jackson, Texas, said he took out a $50,000 line of credit to deal with any short-term problems.

[…]

Mr. Walls said he wrote checks to five of his 75 employees so that they could pay urgent bills and provided workers with letters they could show landlords or creditors. All except two employees have had their money returned, Mr. Walls said Monday.

“I can deal with this as a business owner, but my employees are profoundly affected,” he said. “The snowball that could come from this is so scary.”

Another employer, James LaFlamme, said he threw down $100,000 of his own money to cover employees.

James LaFlamme said he advanced about $100,000 to replace missed paychecks for the roughly 60 employees of his two Vienna, Va., businesses. Mr. LaFlamme said he immediately filed a fraud claim with SunTrust Banks Inc. after $14,000 of his own pay was withdrawn from two personal bank accounts.

While Mr. LaFlamme said he still isn’t sure when the bank will reverse those withdrawals, he said many of his employees had money returned to their accounts Friday. Some of those employees came to the office Monday with checks to repay the advances.

“We were able to scrape enough cash together to make the last payroll this past Friday, but if all the money doesn’t come back to the employees, then there could be a problem with payroll coming up,” Mr. LaFlamme said.

WSJ said the incident will draw attention to a critical but lightly regulated area of the economy: The payroll-processing industry, which is both sprawling and lightly regulated. Competitors in the space range in size from publicly traded giants like ADP and Paychex to smaller players like MyPayrollHR.

Cachet, one of the firms that manages the flow of payroll funds through the ACH system, said it found evidence of fraud in MyPayrollHR’s file that caused some of the purportedly stolen money to be diverted to accounts controlled by MyPayrollHR, instead of the employees of its clients.

END

Bolton unloads on Trump backing down on Iran plus a possible  meeting with the Taliban

(zerohedge)

Bitter Bolton Unloads On Trump’s Backing Down From War At Closed-Door Event

It was perhaps bound to happen, especially as months of bellicose threats against Iran now give way to mere new sanctions roll out, and the White House remains painted into a corner facing all “bad options” after the so-called ‘maximum pressure’ campaign has failed. Recently dismissed national security adviser John Bolton has for the first time ripped into his former boss, attacking Trump’s foreign policy during a closed door lunch on Wednesday hosted by the conservative Gatestone Institute.

“He ripped Trump, without using his name, several times,” one anonymous attendee told Politico. The blunt of Bolton’s criticism focused on “doomed to failure” efforts at negotiating with North Korea and Iran, which he said would only result in softening sanctions but crucially with no change in the regimes’ behavior.

File image via Anadolu Agency

Among the most specific anecdotes revealed a frustrated Bolton who was thwarted from the decision-making process during an escalating summer of crisis in the gulf. The story related to the US being very close to attacking Iran in June, after the IRGC shot down a US drone over the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Bolton told the audience, according to Politico:

After the attack in June, Trump was poised to launch a military response against the Iranians — strongly urged by Bolton — but pulled back after Fox News host Tucker Carlson and others warned him that it was a bad idea.

During Wednesday’s luncheon, Bolton said the planned response had gone through the full process and everybody in the White House had agreed on the retaliatory strike.

The former national security adviser followed with some biting sarcasm which appeared a further slam of Trump: But “a high authority, at the very last minute,” without telling anyone, decided not to do it, Bolton complained, the report relates.

The report also notes Bolton’s strongest criticisms related to Trump’s plan, which the president had called off, to negotiate with top Taliban officials at Camp David. Bolton echoed the common mainstream media attacks on that one, saying the timing so close to the 9/11 anniversary was “disrespectful” to 9/11 victims and their families, and that it sent “terrible signal” to America’s allies.

Trump for his part had previously described Bolton soon after the latter’s dismissal as “holding [him] back” and making some “very big mistakes,” and further wanting to use the disastrous “Libyan model” for everything.

Meanwhile, Trump told Fox News on Thursday morning, “If we could have a peaceful solution, that’s good, it’s possible that that won’t happen” — a statement sure to only frustrate hawks further given Trump’s characteristic ambiguity when it comes to dealing with Iran.

END

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Now Freedom Watch is suing the Dept of Justice for records of Special Agnet Gaeta who helped circulate the phony Steele dossier throughout Europe

(zerohedge)

DOJ Sued For Records Of FBI Agent Who Helped Circulate Steele Dossier

A Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit was filed against the US Justice Department on Wednesday by legal watchdog group Judicial Watchseeking records concerning FBI Special Agent Michael Gaeta – an agency Legal Attaché in Rome who helped circulate the infamous Steele Dossier.

 

Christopher Steele

George Papadopoulos@GeorgePapa19

Expect the name Michael Gaeta to become a household name very soon regarding spygate.

The JW lawsuit seeks:

  • All records of communications, including emails (using [his or her] own name or aliases), text messages, instant chats and encrypted messages, sent to and from former FBI Legal Attaché in Rome, Special Agent Michael Gaeta, mentioning the terms “Trump”, “Clinton”, “Republican”, “Democrat”, and/or “conservatives.”
  • All SF50s and SF52s of SA Michael Gaeta.
  • All expense reports and travel vouchers submitted for SA Michael Gaeta.

According to August 2018 testimony by the DOJ’s former #4 official Bruce Ohr, dossier author Christopher Steele gave two memos from his salacious, Clinton-funded opposition research to Gaeta.

In the July 30 meeting, Chris Steele also mentioned something about the doping — you know, one of the doping scandals. And he also mentioned, I believe — and, again, this is based on my review of my notes — that he had provided Mr. Gaeta with two reports…”

The only thing I recall him mentioning is that he had provided two of his reports to Special Agent Gaeta.

According to the Epoch Times, Gaeta was authorized by former Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland to meet with Steele at his London office in order to obtain dossier materials.

The purpose of the London visit was clear. Steele was personally handing the first memo in his dossier to Gaeta for ultimate transmission back to the FBI and the State Department.

For this visit, the FBI sought permission from the office of Nuland, the assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs. Nuland, who had been the recipient of many of Steele’s reports, gave permission for the more formal meeting. On July 5, 2016, Gaeta traveled to London and met with Steele at the offices of Steele’s firm, Orbis.

The FBI’s scramble to vet the dossier’s claims are well known. According to an April, 2017 NYT reportthe FBI agreed to pay Steele $50,000 for “solid corroboration” of his claims. Steele was apparently unable to produce satisfactory evidence – and was not paid for his efforts:

Mr. Steele met his F.B.I. contact in Rome in early October, bringing a stack of new intelligence reports. One, dated Sept. 14, said that Mr. Putin was facing “fallout” over his apparent involvement in the D.N.C. hack and was receiving “conflicting advice” on what to do.

The agent said that if Mr. Steele could get solid corroboration of his reports, the F.B.I. would pay him $50,000 for his efforts, according to two people familiar with the offer. Ultimately, he was not paid. –NYT

Still, the FBI used the dossier to obtain the FISA warrant on former Trump campaign aide Carter Page – while the document itself was heavily shopped around to various media outlets. The late Sen. John McCain provided a copy to Former FBI Director James Comey, who already had a version, and briefed President Trump on the salacious document. Comey’s briefing to Trump was then used by CNN and BuzzFeed to justify reporting on and publishing the dossier following the election.

The FBI is covering up its role in the Russiagate hoax,” said Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton. “Judicial Watch has had to fight the FBI ‘tooth and nail’ for every scrap of information about the illicit targeting of President Trump.”

END

Ridiculous!! Democrats are salivating over a whistleblower’s statement that Trump made a troubling “proise” to a foreign leader. I guess it is OK for Obama to do but not Trump

(zerohedge)

Democrats Smell Blood After Whistleblower Says Trump Made Troubling ‘Promise’ To Foreign Leader

Congressional Democrats led by Rep. Adam Schiff are salivating over an August 12 whistleblower complaint by an intelligence officer over a ‘troubling promise’ President Trump allegedly made to a foreign leader during a phone call.

It is not clear which foreign leader Trump was speaking with, or what was promised, according to the Washington Post – however the complaint itself has given the president’s opponents a brand new ‘gotcha’ to chase in their quest to bring Trump down.

What’s more, acting director of national intelligence Joseph Maguire has been refusing to share details about the phone call with lawmakers.

Intelligence Community Inspector General Michael Atkinson determined that the complaint was credible and troubling enough to be considered a matter of “urgent concern,” a legal threshold that requires notification of congressional oversight committees.

But acting director of national intelligence Joseph Maguire has refused to share details about Trump’s alleged transgression with lawmakers, touching off a legal and political dispute that has spilled into public view and prompted speculation that the spy chief is improperly protecting the president. –WaPo

And as NBC News reports, over the last several days “the secret whistleblower complaint has been the subject of an increasingly acrimonious standoff between the acting intelligence chief and Schiff, who has demanded Maguire’s testimony and a copy of the complaint.”

Maguire has agreed to testify publicly next week, Schiff announced Wednesday, saying in a statement that the Inspector General “determined that this complaint is both credible and urgent,” adding “The committee places the highest importance on the protection of whistleblowers and their complaints to Congress.”

The matter burst into public view Friday, when Schiff disclosed that an unspecified whistleblower complaint had been filed with the inspector general of the intelligence community, but was being withheld from his committee. That independent watchdog deemed the matter an “urgent concern” that he was required by law to turn over to the congressional intelligence committees.

But Maguire, after consulting with the Justice Department, overruled him, according to a series of letters between a DNI lawyer and Schiff that have been made public. –NBC News

According to Schiff, withholding the information from the House Intelligence Committee he chairs is illegal – and has raised questions over a potential coverup.Piecing it together:The Washington Post noted in their report that President Trump had conversations or interactions with “at least five foreign leaders in the preceding five weeks,” including a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 31.In fact, here’s Trump’s schedule since June 11, per the Post(which is absolutely creaming in their pencil-fit jeans over this story right now).***June 11: Trump says he has received another “beautiful” letter from Kim. Trump also responds to news that Kim’s assassinated half brother was a CIA asset by saying he would tell Kim, “I wouldn’t let that happen under my auspices.”

June 18: Trump holds a call with Chinese President Xi Jinping about the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.

June 27-29: Trump attends the Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Japan. There, he holds bilateral meetings with foreign officials including Xi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

June 30: Trump meets with Kim in the demilitarized zone and briefly becomes the first sitting U.S. president to set foot on North Korean soil.

July 1: Trump holds a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, which covers topics including Iran, the G-20 and Trump’s meeting with Kim, according to a readout from the White House.

July 9: Trump meets with the emir of Qatar, Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani

July 18: Trump meets with Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

July 22: Trump meets with Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan.

July 28: Trump announces Director of National Intelligence Daniel Coats will resign in August.

July 31: Trump holds a phone call with Putin. The call is first reported by the Russians. The White House doesn’t confirm it till late that evening, saying Trump “expressed concern over the vast wildfires afflicting Siberia” and, “The leaders also discussed trade between the two countries.” The Russians, in a much more substantial readout, claim Trump and Putin also spoke about restoring full relations one day.

July 31: Trump meets with President Khaltmaagiin Battulga of Mongolia.

Aug. 2: The United States officially withdraws from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with Russia, as had been previously announced.

Aug. 2: Trump announces a trade deal alongside European Union leaders Stavros Lambrinidis (the E.U. ambassador to the United States) and Jani Raappana (deputy head of mission for the Finnish presidency of the Council of the E.U.).

Aug. 8: After Trump’s pick of Rep. John Ratcliffe (R-Tex.) to replace Coats falls through, Trump announces Joseph Maguire would take on the role in an acting capacity. In doing so, he bypassed Sue Gordon, who had been Coats’s No. 2 at DNI and was a career intelligence official with bipartisan support. Gordon would also resign.

Aug. 9: A brief letter from Gordon to Trump is released. It makes her disappointment clear, “I offer this letter as an act of respect & patriotism, not preference,” she writes. “You should have your team.

Aug. 12Whistleblower files complaint.

Sept. 13: House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam B. Schiff (D-Calif.) subpoenas Maguire to compel him to disclose the whistleblower complaint. Schiff says the complaint was determined to be “credible” by Intelligence Community Inspector General Michael Atkinson, but doesn’t say much more.

Sept. 17: Maguire says he will not testify or hand over the whistleblower complaint. Schiff said Maguire told him he couldn’t “because he is being instructed not to, that this involved a higher authority, someone above.”

Sept. 18: The Post reports the complaint involves Trump’s communications with a foreign leader and some kind of “promise” that was made

***

Did Trump offer to do something after the 2020 election when he’d have more flexibility or something?

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

The King Report September 19, 2019 Issue 6095                                                                                Independent View of the News

Even with a $75B repo from the Fed looming, the overnight repo rate was 2.8% early on Wednesday.  After the repo, the SOFR (secured overnight financing rate) and TGCR (tri-party general collateral rate) O/N repo rates were 5.25%.  The BGCR (broad general collateral rate) was 2.42%.

Fed Fund rate hit 2.3%, breaching the Fed’s 2.25% upper bound [now 2%].  The funding squeeze was still operative.  The Street submitted $80.5B of collateral for the Fed’s $75B repo operation.

ESZs declined from the second hour of Asian trading until the European open.  A modest 5-handle rally occurred during the first hour of European trading.  Then ESZs declined until the pre-NYSE open scheme commenced at 7: 39 ET.

@realDonaldTrump: I have just instructed the Secretary of the Treasury to substantially increase Sanctions on the country of Iran[8:53 ET]

ESZs and US stocks declined on the NYSE open.  FedEx’s tumble on its reduced earnings forecast was a factor.  Traders quickly bought the dip, creating a bottom just 7 minutes after the NYSE open.  The urge to be long for the FOMC Communique and expiry manipulation (Weird Wednesday) was indeed very strong.  Ergo, a ‘V’ rally appeared after the opening dip.

Even with the ‘V’ rally, the DJTA was down 1.6% after the first hour of US trading because FedEx continued to decline.  FedEx was -14.02%.

The ‘V’ rally ended about 6 minutes after the first hour of trading.  Selling into the European close appeared.  After pausing at midday, ESZs and stocks declined to new session lows.  Traders became alarmed when the general collateral O/N repo rate hit 5.25%.

Due to habit, traders commenced the buying of ESZs and stocks 24 minutes before the FOMC Communique was due for release.

As expected, the Fed lowered its funds rate by 25bps; but on a 7-3 vote.  The same two hawks (George & Rosengren) voted to not cut rates.  Bullard, due to his quest to replace Powell, voted for a 50bp rate cut.

Powell Seeks to Regain Control over Fed Funds with IOER Tweak [to 1.8% from 2.1%]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-18/powell-seeks-to-regain-control-over-fed-funds-with-ioer-tweak

There were no surprises in the FOMC’s economic assessment.  The Fed reiterated that it “will act as appropriate to sustain the US economy… the labor market remains strong… economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate.”

Here is what unnerved equity bulls: 10 Fed officials predict no further rate cuts in 2019; 7 project a 3rd cut this year.  No rate cuts are projected for 2020; one cut in 2021 and one cut in 2022 are projected.

@realDonaldTrump: Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve Fail Again. No “guts,” no sense, no vision!  A terrible communicator!

ESZs jumped 10 handles on the release of the FOMC Communique – probably because the IOER was cut to 1.8% from 2.1%; 1.85% was expected.  ESZs tumbled 16 handles seconds later.  5 minutes later, ESZs had rallied 15 handles.  Nine minutes later, ESZs had tumbled 20 handles in nine minutes.

Powell Press Conference Highlights

  • We serve the American people based on facts ( HARVEY:SURE!! POWELL IS A CLOWN)
  • US economy has continued to perform well
  • Household spending remains strong, supported by rising incomes; this has support growth; household sector is “in very good shape”, lowly leveraged; expects job market to remain strong
  • We expect inflation to rise to our 2% objective
  • Business spending is weak due to international and geopolitical risks
  • We will carefully look at economy data; we are NOT on preset course; we are “data dependent”
  • The recent liquidity crunch was stronger than the Fed expected but it has “no implications” for the economy; it’s due to corporations paying taxes and large debt issuance (HARVEY: THIS STATEMENT IS FALSE..IT HAS SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ECONOMY)
  • Refused to answer question about massive US debt being a problem (HARVEY: THAT SHOULD SCARE EVERYBODY TO DEATH AS LIQUIDITY DISAPPEARS FROM THE PLANET)
  • Monetary policy works with long and variable times, per Milton Friedman; it is not necessary the best tool for the economy all the time
  • If the economy does turn down, then a more extensive sequence of rate cuts will be appropriate.” (HARVEY: AT END OF QUESTIONS RECEIVED A PAT ON SHOULDER AND THUS QE4 IS BORNE)
  • Downplayed the predictive value of the yield curve; some FOMC members like it; others don’t
  • Fiscal policy is more powerful and effective than monetary policy

ESZs and stocks flat lined near the session lows during Powell’s press conference – until Powell downplayed the recent funding squeeze.  ESZs and stocks then made new lows.  ESZs and stocks rallied when Powell, in the Q&A, said it’s possible the Fed will need to resume the growth of its balance sheet sooner than thought.  Expiry manipulators and bulls were energized; the Weird Wednesday manipulation was on!  ESZs and US stocks soared to session highs.

Powell on negative interest rates: We looked at them; they worked reasonably well elsewhere; we do not look to employ NIRP; we would use large scale asset purchases (massive QE). (HARVEY: FALSE STATEMENT THAT THEY “WORKED REASONABLE WELL”

Powell and the FOMC induced a spirited equity decline; but Jerry saved the equity market with his assertion that a decision on QE 4 might be sooner than expected.

Probably to vex and neuter Trump, Powell delivered a glowing assessment of the US economy and suggested that Trump’s fight with China on trade is the biggest concern.

The wild ESZ gyrations are clear evidence of the bastardization of the equity market.  This should trouble everyone; but because the manipulation is almost always on the upside, few care.

US August Housing Starts surged 12.3% m/m to 1.364m units.  1.25m was expected.  Permits jumped 7.7% to 1.419m.  1.3m (-1.3%) was expected.  Single family home starts rose 4.4% to 919k.  Multifamily starts soared 32.8% to three-month high of 445k.

U.S. Home Starts Reach Highest Since 2007 in Broad Advance

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-18/u-s-housing-starts-reach-highest-since-2007-in-broad-advance

Europe’s banks may be at risk of failing if negative rates continue: Simon Baptist, global chief economist of the Economist Intelligence Unit…“If interest rates stay below zero, they’re certainly not all going to be able to be profitable, running as they are today, in 10 years’ time,”… https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/18/eiu-sees-risk-of-bank-failure-in-europe-that-could-lead-to-recession.html

ECB weighs investigating Deutsche Bank over alleged unauthorized bond purchases: sources

The European Central Bank is examining whether to open a formal investigation into Deutsche Bank for allegedly buying some of its own securities without authorization, two people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday…     https://www.reuters.com/article/us-deutsche-bank-ecb/ecb-weighs-investigating-deutsche-bank-over-alleged-unauthorized-bond-purchases-sources-idUSKBN1W31HB

Jamie Dimon says his gut tells him a recession is ‘not imminent’

“If you look at the American economy, the consumer is in good shapebalance sheets are in goodshape, people are going back to the workforce, companies have plenty of capital,” Dimon said…

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/18/jamie-dimon-says-his-gut-tells-him-a-recession-is-not-imminent.html

@charliebilello: The Fed cut rates again today with the US Unemployment Rate at 3.7%. Since the Fed started specifically targeting the Fed Funds Rate in 1982, it had never cut rates w/ the Unemployment Rate below 4%. Lowest unemployment rate w/ a rate cut previously was 4.2% in Jan 2001.

After the close, Microsoft announced a new $40B share repurchase scheme.  We didn’t see any news about Microsoft increasing capex or employment though.  Tax cuts are going to do what, Donnie?

Today – Early US trading should be a reaction to the BoJ and BoE Communiques.  No change in BoJ or BoE rates is expected.  The Street is hoping for more BoJ QQE or an indication that more QQE is coming.  The elephant in the trading room, though, is the repo fund squeeze.

The biggest risk for expiry manipulators is the repo market.  Astute traders will keep an eye on it.

After the close, the NY Fed pre-announced another $75B repo, its 3rd straight repo operation.  It will be conducted from 8:15 AM ET to 8:30 AM ET on Thursday.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_190918

The Street is extremely bullish on equities and the expiry manipulators, after being hindered by negative news all week, got a B-12 shot from Powell’s QE comment yesterday afternoon.  Therefore, barring news, the usual suspects will try to push ESZs and stocks to new highs for futures and options’ expiry.

The S&P 500 Index had an Outside Day on Wednesday.  We recently commented that the inordinate amount of Inside and Outside Days is due to the extreme volatility in the markets, which is a result of tweets, news and unexpected fundamental data.

Justice Dept. IG referred James Comey for criminal prosecution

The Justice Department ultimately decided not to prosecute Mr. Comey despite Mr. Horowitz’s team concluding he improperly leaked information to the news media…

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/sep/18/james-comey-referred-criminal-prosecution-justice-/

Corey Lewandowski’s House Testimony Quickly Devolves into a Total Mess

The former Trump campaign chief and Republican lawmakers swiftly derailed the Democrats’ newly minted impeachment hearings almost as soon as they started…

https://www.thedailybeast.com/corey-lewandowskis-house-testimony-quickly-devolves-into-a-total-mess

Biden vows tax credit will put ‘720 million women’ back in workforce

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-vows-tax-credit-will-put-720-million-women-back-in-workforce/ar-AAHs02C

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

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