SEPT 20//GOLD SKYROCKETS AFTER A CHINESE DELEGATION RETURNS HOME//GOLD UP $8.60 TO $1507.60 COMEX TO COMEX AND ANOTHER 9 DOLLARS IN THE ACCESS MARKET//SILVER UP 3 CENTS COMEX TO COMEX AND ANOTHER 17 CENTS IN THE ACCESS MARKET//CONTINUED SILVER QUEUE JUMPING// TRUMP SANCTIONS THE CENTRAL BANK OF IRAN//JPMORGAN’S NOWAK REMOVED FROM BOARD OF DIRECTORS OF LBMA//FED ANNOUNCES A 4TH REPO DAILY OPERATION AS WELL AS A TERM REPO: WE ARE HEADING FOR A PERMANENT POMO (QE4)

GOLD:$1507.60 UP $8.60 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.83 UP 3 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1515.60

 

silver:  $17.97

Definition of Rico

RICO is typically used to indict mobsters – which makes its use against employees of the largest bank in America a very disquieting event. But even more disquieting is that two trial lawyers compared JPMorgan Chase to the Gambino crime family five long years ago and recommended in their 2016 book that the bank’s officers be prosecuted under the RICO statute.” … Pam Martens and Russ Martens

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 0/3

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,498.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/19/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 09/23/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 2 2
905 C ADM 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 3 3
MONTH TO DATE: 1,741

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT CONTRACT: 3 NOTICE(S) FOR 300 OZ (0.00933 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1741 NOTICES FOR 174100 OZ  (5.4152 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR SEPT

 

 

166 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 830,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 8607 for   43,035,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 10153 DOWN 93 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10152 down 92

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL  SIZED 320 CONTRACTS FROM 210,878 UP TO 211,198 DESPITE THE 4 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

 FOR SEPT 0, DEC: 465 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  465 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 465 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 465 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 2.325 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 4 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.180   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

WE AGAIN HAD ATTEMPTED COVERING OF BANKER SHORTS  AT THE SILVER COMEX YESTERDAY BUT TO NO AVAIL

AS THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST IN BOTH EXCHANGES RISE ALBEIT BY A VERY SMALL AMOUNT.

 

THE LIQUIDATION OF COMEX OI OF SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED AND WE WILL NOW COMMENCE WITH THE ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADERS GOLD OPEN INTEREST

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT:

25,575 CONTRACTS (FOR 14 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 25,575 CONTRACTS) OR 127.87 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1826 CONTRACTS OR 9.133 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  127.87 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 18.14% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1677.48   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 320, DESPITE THE 4 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 465 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED: 785 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 465 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 320  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 4 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.80 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.056 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 151% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 166 NOTICE(S) FOR 830,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.180 MILLION OZ//   

2     THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.

3     HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP                ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE                   JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 3637 CONTRACTS, TO 632,101 DESPITE THE  $8.90 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// /

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 6488 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  6488 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 632,101,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,125 CONTRACTS: 3637 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 6488 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 10,125 CONTRACTS OR 1,012,500 OZ OR 31.49 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A  LOSS OF $8.90 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND DESPITE THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 31.49  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON AS THE COMEX GOLD VOLUME WAS HUGE. THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE LONGS AND AS YOU CAN SEE, THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST IN BOTH EXCHANGES SKYROCKETED

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 98,588 CONTRACTS OR 9,858,800 oz OR 306.65 TONNES (14 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 7042 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 306.55 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 306.55/3550 x 100% TONNES =8.63% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4458.25  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3637 DESPITE THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($8.90)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6,488 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6488 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 10,125 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6488 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 3637 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 31.49 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE  LOSS IN PRICE OF $8.90 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  3 notice(s) filed upon for 300 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $8.60 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 320 CONTRACTS from 210,878 UP TO 211,198 AND CLOSER TO A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR SEPT. 0; FOR DEC  465:  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 465 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 320  CONTRACTS TO THE 465 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A FAIL SIZED GAIN OF 785 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3.925 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ// AND FINALLY SEPT: : 43.180 MILLION OZ//

 

 

 

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 4 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 465 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.17 POINTS OR 0.24%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 33.28 POINTS OR 0.13%   /The Nikkei closed UP 34.64 POINTS OR 0.16%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .20%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0878 /Oil UP TO 58.72 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.68 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0878 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0848 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

CHINA/USA

My goodness did that escalate fast.  A Chinese trade delegation has cancelled its USA farm visit to Montana and agrictulre officials are returning to China sooner than expected.  That sent odds of a trade deal reeling..

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

Our resident expert on UK affairs checks in and stats that the odds of a bad Brexit may be increasing due to the strengthening of liberal Democrats over Labour.  This is one big mess but I am counting on Bo Jo to pull this out of the fire

(Mish Shedlock)

ii)GERMANY.

Germany reaches a climate plan which is fiscally neutral.  This disappoints the street greatly as they were counting on a huge German stimulus

(zerohedge)

iii)GERMANY/COMMERZBANK

Troubled German bank now plans to cut 4300 jobs and to sell its stake in Polish bank M Bank

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)TURKEY

This will never be allowed: Turkey wants nuclear weapons

(Gatestone/Bekdil)

ii)IRAN/USA

this is going to hurt Iran as Trump sanctions the National Bank of Iraq. This means no financial transactions whatsoever will be allowed with this National Bank
(zerohedge)

iii)IRAN

Houthis vow to halt attacks on Saudi soil if the Saudi stop their constant assault on them in Yemen

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Finally Lawrie Williams is beginning to state that GATA is correct in the manipulation of gold/silver by governments and banks

(GATA/Lawrie Williams/Chris Powell/GATA)

ii)Fed Chairman Powell fails to answer questions on whether Wall Street banks are just too big to manage and too big to fail due to their monstrous derivative positions

(courtesy Pam and Russ Martens/Wall Street on Parade)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

i)Global Macro Monitor analyze stuff pretty good.  Here they outline 3 reasons for the lack of plumbing in the money markets.

i believe they are bang on.

(courtesy Global Macro Monitor)

ii)The Fed Repo is oversubscribed for the 4th straight day but the funding drops to a touch over 75 billion. They still did not know what caused the plumbing to seize up but Goldman Sachs states that in very short order the Fed will engage in QE4 or POM0 which is identical in nature

(zerohedge)

ii b)Then early this afternoon: extremely important

The Fed just announced a series of Repos next week each totalling $75 billion each plus a 14 day term Repo. The total amount of repos: 165 billion dollars. Obviously the plumbing has not been fixed, By late Oct or early Nov expect the Repos to be replaced by permanent POMO ( QE4)

zerohedge

iii)Here is the real story on the Fed dissents.  Clearly Trump would like to fire Powell and bring on a Bullard Fed

(zerohedge)

iv)This is an accident waiting to happen.  This company,We Work, is continually in the red and has no hope of turning a profit. It  IPO has been stalled because of faulty valuation. It eventual bankruptcy will unleash a system risk to the economy

(zerohedge)

v)The mess in Illinois:  now bankrupt cities are forced to cut services to fund pensions.  Eventually they will have to cut their entire police force to pay these pensions. East St Louis has only two years of cash left

(Mish Shedlock)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

As promised to you, this is a joke.  The Democrats are going nuts on this.  It seems that Trump wants more information from the Ukraine on the Joe Biden/Hunter Biden theft of billions of dollars from the Ukraine

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 3637 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 632,681 DESPITE THE LOSS OF $8.90 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6488 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR SEPT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 6488   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6488 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 10,125 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6488 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 3637 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS SUCCEEDED IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE BY A CONSIDERABLE LOSS OF $8.90. HOWEVER, JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE AGAIN UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY UNSUSPECTING LONGS. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  10,125 CONTRACTS OR 1,012,500 OZ OR 31.49 TONNES.

We are now in the NON  active contract month of SEPT and here the open interest stands at 20 CONTRACTS and we LOST 5 contracts.  We had5 notices filed yesterday so despite the raid and liquidation of contracts we LOST 0contracts or an additional NIL oz of gold that will  stand for delivery at the comex as they refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

The next active delivery month is October and here the OI ROSE by 226 contracts UP to 34,544. The month of November saw a gain of 13 contracts and thus the OI is rises to 174.  The very big December contract month saw its oi rise by 3261 contracts up to 474,632

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 3 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  300 OZ. (0.00933 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 346 CONTRACTS FROM 210,878 UP TO 211,198 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A 4 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.  HERE WE HAVE 195 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A GAIN OF 27 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 3 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED  30 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 150,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..  THE NEXT NON ACTIVE CONTRACT MONTH IS OCTOBER AND IT GAINED ANOTHER 20 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1543. NOVEMBER SAW A SMALL GAIN OF 16 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 195. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 21 CONTRACTS UP TO 162,139.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 166 notice(s) filed for 830,000, OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 121,324  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  303,004  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  SEPT/GOLD

SEPT 20/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
3 notice(s)
 300 OZ
(0.00933 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
17 contracts
(1700 oz)
.0528 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1741 notices
174100 OZ
5.4152 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 0  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ zero amount  arrived   today

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

We had one adjustment and for the first time in 3 months we had moving from the dealer to the customer:

From the Delaware vault:

702.03 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account and this is deemed a settlement.

 

 

FOR THE SEPT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 3 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1741) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT. (20 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (3 x 100 oz per contract) equals 175,800 OZ OR 5.468 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of SEPT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1741 x 100 oz)  + (20)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (3 x 100 oz )which equals 175,800 oz standing OR 5.468 TONNES in this  active delivery month of SEPT.

 

We GAINED 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will seek metal on this side of the pond, but despite the raid they refused to morph into  London based forwards….  The gold comex is still under siege for any remaining physical metal.

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 27.153  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING //AUGUST AND 5.468 TONNES IN SEPT.//

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD 0 TRANSACTION ON THIS FRONT.  SEPT SO FAR  JUST HAD ONE ADJUSTMENT, AND THUS I WILL ADD THE 27.153 TONNES TO THE 5.468 TONNES (EQUALS 32.621 TONNES) AGAINST THE 22.89 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  736,000.351 oz or  22.89 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,098,442.861 oz 251.89 tonnes

IN THE LAST 35 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
SEPT 20 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 30,043.972 oz
BRINKS
CNT
DELAWARE

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
599,482.336 oz
CNT

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
166
CONTRACT(S)
(830,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
29 contracts
 145,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  8707 contracts

43,035,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into the dealer CNT: 599,482.336 oz

 

total dealer deposits: 599,482.336  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT:  23,045.385 oz

ii) Out of  Brinks: 2988.100

iii) Out of Delaware: 4010.487 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 30,043.97  oz

 

we had 1 adjustment : and this is a deemed settlement

i) Out of HSBC: 3,337,506.460 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account of HSBC and this landed into the customer account of HSBC

 

total dealer silver:  85.189 million

total dealer + customer silver:  317.196 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER 2019. contract month is represented by 166 contract(s) FOR 830,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 8607 x 5,000 oz = 43,035,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (195) and the number of notices served upon today 166 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2019 contract month: 8607 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (195)- number of notices served upon today (166)x 5000 oz equals 43,180,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month. 

We gained 30 contracts or 150,000 additional oz of silver will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negate a fiat bonus.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 166 notice(s) filed for 830,000 OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  25,403 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 68,280 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 68,280 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 341 million  OZ 48.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

 

 

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -2.06% ((SEPT 19/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.21% to NAV (SEPT 19/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -2.06%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.25 TRADING 14.77/DISCOUNT 3.15

 

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 ON THE DAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.06 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 16/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A BIG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 12//WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A HUGE 7.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.15 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: I)A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD (LATE YESTERDAY EVENING) AND 2) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES LATE THIS AFTERNOON./INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.17 TONNES

AUGUST 20//WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WE GOT BACK 7.63 TONNES OUT OF 11.11 TONNES LOST ON WEDNESDAY( A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

 

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

 

 

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SEPT 20/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 883.60 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 668 TRADING DAYS: 51.74 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 568- TRADING DAYS: A NET 114.87 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 20/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.899 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION PAPER OZ OF SILVER///INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.425 MILLION PAPER OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.179 MILLION OZ../

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 60 CENTS TODAY: A RATHER TIMID CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 842,000 PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 386.604 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.696 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20.WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 16/: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 15/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 20/2019:

 

 

Inventory 375.473 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.13/ and libor 6 month duration 2.08

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .05

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.08%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.07

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.01

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

‘Plumbing of the U.S. Financial System’ Under Pressure; NY Fed Providing Massive Liquidity and Potentially Permanent Repo and QE

The ‘plumbing of the U.S. financial system’ is under pressure as liquidity dries up forcing New York Federal Reserve to provide massive liquidity and potentially they may be forced to move to permanent repo operations and renewed quantitative easing or QE

◆ The New York Fed appears to be set to do another $75 billion overnight repo operation today. It follows massive liquidity injections of the same size yesterday and on Wednesday, and $53.2 billion on Tuesday.

◆ The Fed is preparing a ‘temporary’ liquidity injection for a fourth straight day and there are concerns that increased signs of severe stress in the funding markets in the U.S. may force the Fed to permanently increase their reserves by electronically creating dollars in order to buy more U.S. Treasurys

The Fed is deploying this ‘remedy’ for the first time in a decade, since the last global financial crisis and there are signs that we may be on the verge of another financial crisis centered on the U.S. financial and monetary system

◆ Gold prices are marginally higher today and for the week and appear headed for their first weekly gain in four weeks, supported by concerns about the U.S. financial system, a softer dollar, the tinder box that is the Middle East and trade wars which are impacting global economic growth.

Overstock Founder Dumps His Stake for Gold, Silver and Crypto Assets

Serious inroads into manipulation but still unfinished business

Fed chairman fails to answer whether Wall Street banks are too big to manage

Repo Rates And Gold: Something Big Is Happening

 

Gold Prices (LBMA – USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)

19-Sep-19 1498.40 1500.70, 1200.67 1201.76 & 1354.85 1357.08
18-Sep-19 1502.20 1503.50, 1206.27 1204.90 & 1360.39 1359.92
17-Sep-19 1499.30 1502.10, 1208.89 1207.24 & 1361.51 1360.45
16-Sep-19 1502.05 1497.20, 1207.35 1203.30 & 1357.25 1359.46
13-Sep-19 1506.30 1503.10, 1209.41 1208.19 & 1356.88 1358.35
12-Sep-19 1502.95 1515.20, 1219.94 1227.46 & 1362.88 1373.53
11-Sep-19 1493.65 1490.65, 1208.21 1209.07 & 1354.74 1355.90
10-Sep-19 1494.60 1498.25, 1211.52 1211.34 & 1353.51 1357.11
09-Sep-19 1509.95 1509.20, 1223.81 1220.34 & 1368.62 1364.92

Click here to listen to the latest GoldCore Podcast

Receive our free Daily or Weekly Updates by signing up here and click here to subscribe to GoldCore’s You Tube Channel

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Finally Lawrie Williams is beginning to state that GATA is correct in the manipulation of gold/silver by governments and banks

(GATA/Lawrie Williams/Chris Powell/GATA)

Lawrie Williams at Sharps Pixley: Maybe GATA isn’t so nuts after all

 Section: 

11:45a ET Thursday, September 19, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA has never gotten treatment as approving from London bullion dealer Sharps Pixley and its market analyst, Lawrie Williams, as it did with Williams’ commentary Monday.

Williams quoted at length from your secretary/treasurer as if our tinfoil hats have transformed themselves into combat helmets for a new charge against the tyranny and corruption of central banking.

Or else Williams now is wearing a tinfoil hat too.

Williams’ commentary is headlined “JPMorgan Gold and Silver Spoofing Defined as ‘Racketeering’ by U.S. Prosecutors” and it’s posted at Sharps Pixley here:

https://www.sharpspixley.com/articles/lawrie-williams-jp-morgan-gold-and…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: JP Morgan gold and silver spoofing defined as ‘racketeering’ by U.S. Prosecutors

Probably yesterday’s biggest precious metals story was not only the indictment of JP Morgan’s precious metals trading desk on ‘spoofing’ in the markets, but the extremely serious nature of the charges being brought against the U.S.’s biggest bank.  For years there have been arguments and counter arguments against whether there has been price manipulation in the precious metals markets by the big banks.  This latest prosecution suggests strongly that there is as ‘spoofing’ is a key weapon in the manipulators’ arsenal and JP Morgan is no small regional bank but perhaps the U.S.’s biggest which appears to have made millions, if not billions, of dollars from these alleged activities.

‘Spoofing’ is the practice of making huge buy and sell orders on the futures markets, thus substantially influencing prices, but then cancelling the orders before they are executed.  Prosecutors seem to be suggesting that such manipulative activities were inherited from the practices of Bear Stearns, which was taken over by JP Morgan back in 2008, and have been going on ever since – probably at an enhanced level – but without mentioning the names of the banks concerned.  However it is two JP Morgan traders and their department head who have been indicted.

According to a Bloomberg report, the JPMorgan investigation grew out of a multibank U.S. crackdown on manipulation of commodities markets using techniques including spoofing. The Justice Department had already brought criminal charges against 16 people, including traders who worked for Deutsche Bank and UBS. Seven pleaded guilty, one was convicted at trial and another was acquitted.  The latest indictments may thus be only the ‘tip of the iceberg’ in terms of large scale manipulations of all kinds of markets.

In the words of Chris Powell of GATA (The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee) precious metals price manipulation goes much further and that the commercial banks, which are the prime movers in forms of market manipulation,  are working in conjunction with many of the world’s central banks keen to protect their domestic currencies from the safe haven attraction of gold in particular.

According to Powell, this means firstly that “metals and minerals are underpriced, along with most commodities, because of the price suppression engineered by central banks to defend their currencies and government bonds. Central banks and governments in the developed world don’t want gold, silver, other metals, and other commodities to compete with their currencies as stores of value.  (As the recent acquisition of gold by Russia, China, and other governments suggests, gold price suppression has been figured out in some quarters at last and certain countries are turning to gold to regain financial sovereignty.)

Second, it means that there is a vast and uncoverable short position in the monetary metals and other strategic commodities. Thus they have great potential for price appreciation.

Third, it means that Western central banks are not likely to surrender this short position without a fight or another negotiated international currency revaluation.

Fourth, since governments can create infinite money, it means that if you are trading against secret trading by the government, you are likely to lose.

Fifth, it means that if commodity prices ever regain free markets, commodity producers should be prepared for stiffer royalty requirements and windfall profits taxes.

And sixth, it means that people in the mining and commodities businesses may have an obligation to their investors and clients to inform them of the opposition of major governments to free markets and higher commodity prices. It means we all may have an obligation to clamor for governments to tell us the truth about their surreptitious interventions in the markets. For this price suppression works only through deception.

Because it depends entirely on government for its mining claims, royalty requirements, and enforcement of environmental regulations, the mining industry is the industry most vulnerable to government. Any government can shut down any mining company on any pretext at any time.”

Powell said back in 2008 “There are no markets anymore, just interventions” applying the manipulations to all markets, not just those of precious metals.  This has been borne out by a number of prosecutions against traders in key global financial markets, often accompanied by guilty pleas from the individuals indicted.

What is perhaps unprecedented in the latest indictments is the language used by the prosecutors in describing JP Morgan’s precious metals desk as a ‘criminal enterprise operating inside the bank’ and the individuals indicted as partaking in a ‘conspiracy to conduct the affairs of an enterprise involved in interstate or foreign commerce through a pattern of racketeering activity.’  For several years now, Ted Butler, who is a close follower of precious metals markets with an emphasis on silver, has described JP Morgan’s market activities as ‘criminal’ in the true sense of the word – it now seems that U.S. prosecutors are taking a similar position, thus vindicating Ted’s ongoing campaign.  Indeed Ted’s frequent accusations of JP Morgan’s criminality were made without the bank denying this accusation at any time.

But the JP Morgan employees and past employee, who are the subjects of the indictments, should probably be seen as the mere implementers of an ongoing policy to which even more senior bank employees will have turned a blind eye.  It is hugely unlikely that a part of the business which was continually making enormous profits for the bank would not have raised eyebrows and received tacit approval.  However top management is probably sufficiently insulated from the activities of the more junior staff members (the sacrificial lambs) to avoid prosecution, although the stigma will remain.  One assumes too that those who have been indicted will be well rewarded for taking the fall!

Of course JP Morgan is most probably not the only major bank which has indulged in this kind of activity in the name of mega profits.  Whether the Department of Justice will broaden, or extend, its enquiry into such activity elsewhere, or will see the JP Morgan case as a warning for others to cease and desist from such activities, is uncertain at this point.  Similar activity by the big money may well continue, although perhaps will be even more surreptitious in nature.

17 Sep 2019

Fed Chairman Powell fails to answer questions on whether Wall Street banks are just too big to manage and too big to fail due to their monstrous derivative positions

(courtesy Pam and Russ Martens/Wall Street on Parade)

Pam and Russ Martens: Fed chairman fails to answer whether Wall Street banks are too big to manage

 Section: 

8:56p ET Thursday, September 19, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Systemic risk abounds with the big banks on Wall Street, Pam and Russ Martens write today at Wall Street on Parade, but no journalist at Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference this week bothered to ask about it, and only one reporter came even close.

Powell, the Martenses write, “pretends that 2008 never happened. Lending came to a frightening halt in 2008 because no one could predict with any clarity which Wall Street bank would fail next as a result of its own high leverage or its exposure to a highly levered borrower like Lehman Brothers.”

… 

Of course GATA long has complained about the critical questions the mainstream financial news organizations won’t put to governments and central banks about their surreptitious interventions in the markets.

The Martenses’ commentary is headlined “At Press Conference, Fed Chair Powell Refuses to Answer Whether Wall Street Banks Are Too Big to Manage” and it’s posted at Wall Street on Parade here:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/09/at-press-conference-fed-chair-pow…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

Press Conference, Fed Chair Powell Refuses to Answer Whether Wall Street Banks Are Too Big to Manage

The week’s unsettling events should have provided the basis for reporters to fire questions at the Fed Chair along the following lines: (1) Did the overnight repo lending rate jump to an historical high of 10 percent on Tuesday because some of the largest Wall Street banks backed away from lending? (2) With six mega banks on Wall Street holding 90 percent of the risky $272 trillion U.S. derivatives market and also a disproportionate share of Federally-insured deposits, could the U.S. see another 2008 type of crash on Wall Street? (3) Are these six banks too interconnected with each other, meaning that if one of them gets into trouble as Citigroup did in 2008, could it spill over to every other mega Wall Street bank?

While every major business news outlet was represented at the press conference, not one of the above questions was asked. One reporter, however, came close.

Hannah Lang, a reporter with American Banker, asked Powell about reports out yesterday that Bank of America was being investigated by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau for opening unauthorized accounts. She asked if the Fed was also investigating this and said that given the pending order against Wells Fargo for the same kind of behavior, if Powell was concerned that these banks are too big to manage.

Powell said he saw the news about Bank of America but he had no further information to share. He said that the Wells Fargo situation was quite harmful to the customers and damaged the firm’s reputation. As for whether these mega banks are too big to manage, Powell simply ignored that portion of the question entirely.

If Lang had wanted to add critical ammunition to her question, she might have posed it this way: “Chairman Powell, for the first time in U.S. history, two of the largest banks on Wall Street are admitted felons. Citigroup admitted to one criminal felony count in 2015 for its role in rigging foreign currency markets. JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the U.S. and on Wall Street, has admitted to three criminal felony counts in the last five years: two counts for its role in Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme and one count for its involvement in rigging foreign currency markets. On Monday, JPMorgan Chase was back in the news again with the Department of Justice charging three of its gold and silver traders with racketeering – a criminal charge typically used against organized crime. And, today, Bank of America is under investigation for opening the same kind of unauthorized customer accounts that happened at Wells Fargo. Mr. Chairman, are these banks too big to manage and too corrupt to be allowed to exist?”

If one considers the trillions of dollars in derivatives that these banks are on the hook for, they have once again become highly leveraged and dangerous. Chairman Powell responded to a question from Nancy Marshall-Genzer of Marketplace about debt in the system like this:

“The level of debt relative to GDP in the business sector is at a high level. However, so is the size of the business sector. So, actually, the business sector itself is not materially higher leveraged than it was. None the less, there are a lot of highly levered companies. And that’s the kind of thing that happens during a long cycle when there aren’t downturns. We’re now into our eleventh year, you do get that kind of phenomenon in a long cycle. That’s something we’re monitoring and I think our view still is that’s a real issue but what it really represents is a potential amplifier of a macro-economic downturn. It does not have the makings of anything that would undermine the workings of the financial system, for example, or could itself create a shock that would turn the economy down…”

That answer effectively pretends that 2008 never happened. Lending came to a frightening halt in 2008 because no one could predict with any clarity which Wall Street bank would fail next as a result of its own high leverage or its exposure to a highly levered borrower like Lehman Brothers, for example.

Chairman Powell, who spent most of the press conference answering questions from a written script in a folder on the podium, did let this one nugget slip out about highly levered businesses. Powell said “The Financial Stability Board is actually conducting a project right now to identify where these loans are held all around the world. So, it’s a subject of a lot of study and work and we’re trying to keep on top of it.”

The best way to keep on top of it is to look at what’s on and off the balance sheets at the mega Wall Street banks.

end

Late today:

GATA) LBMA removes JPMorgan board member after indictment

Submitted by cpowell on 03:55PM ET Friday, September 20, 2019. Section: Daily Dispatches

By Henry Sanderson
Financial Times, London
Friday, September 20, 2019

https://www.ft.com/content/22250f48-db9a-11e9-8f9b- 77216ebe1f17

The London Bullion Market Association has removed Michael Nowak, JPMorgan’s head of precious metals trading, from its board after he was indicted by the U.S. Department of Justice for a “massive, multi-year scheme” to manipulate the precious metals markets.

“In light of the ongoing investigation by the Department of Justice, the LBMA, under the terms of its Articles of Association, has removed Mr. Nowak from its board,” the LBMA said.

The indictment is an embarrassment for the LBMA, which represents London’s precious metals market and launched a code of conduct for its members in 2017.

Mr. Nowak’s name was no longer listed on the LBMA’s website as of today.

JPMorgan, along with HSBC, dominates gold trading in London and is one of the most powerful members of the LBMA.

Mr. Nowak was charged Monday along with two colleagues, Gregg Smith and Christopher Jordan, on federal racketeering charges normally used to take down organized crime syndicates.

The indictment alleged that the three traders engaged in “widespread spoofing, market manipulation, and fraud.”

They placed orders they intended to cancel before execution in an effort to “create liquidity and drive prices toward orders they wanted to execute on the opposite side of the market,” it alleged.

Mr. Nowak and Mr. Smith are on leave from JPMorgan, according to a person familiar with the matter, while Mr. Jordan has left the bank.

The Justice Department is also looking at other commodities and other banks, according to a person familiar with the matter.

JPMorgan is also one of the biggest traders of base metals such as aluminium.

A spokesman for JPMorgan declined to comment.

***

end

Gold-Rigging Scandal Hits The LBMA: JPMorgan’s Gold Manipulator Nowak Kicked Off LBMA Board

Submitted by Ronan Manly, BullionStar.com

Just when you think it couldn’t get any more embarrassing for JP Morgan’s precious metals business and its embattled head, Michael Nowak, it just did today as the powerful London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) moved to oust Nowak, who has become too toxic, from the LBMA’s board of directors.

According to the Financial Times:

“The London Bullion Market Association has removed Michael Nowak, JPMorgan’s head of precious metals trading, from its board after he was indicted by the US Department of Justice for a “massive, multiyear scheme” to manipulate the precious metals markets. 

“In light of the ongoing investigation by the Department of Justice, the LBMA, under the terms of its Articles of Association, has removed Mr Nowak from its board,” the LBMA said. 

The DoJ indictment is an embarrassment for the LBMA, which represents London’s precious metals market, and launched a code of conduct for its members in 2017.

Mr Nowak’s name was no longer listed on the LBMA’s website as of Friday.” 

 

Toxic Board Member – Widespread Spoofing

As background, JP Morgan managing director and head of precious metals trading Nowak become too toxic to retain his seat on the LBMA Board from at least last Monday, when DoJ charged and unsealed an indictment against Nowak, JP Morgan precious metals trader Gregg Smith, and former JP Morgan precious metals trader Christopher Jordan for:

alleged participation in a racketeering conspiracy and other federal crimes in connection with the manipulation of the markets for precious metals futures contracts, which spanned over eight years and involved thousands of unlawful trading sequences.

In the words of the DoJ indictment, the three and and their co-conspirators allegedly engaged in:

a massive, multiyear scheme to manipulate the market for precious metals futures contracts and defraud market participants”

“widespread spoofing, market manipulation and fraud while working on the precious metals desk” at JP Morgan “through the placement of orders they intended to cancel before execution (Deceptive Orders) in an effort to create liquidity and drive prices toward orders they wanted to execute on the opposite side of the market. 

In thousands of sequences, the defendants and their co-conspirators allegedly placed Deceptive Orders for gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc. (NYMEX) and Commodity Exchange Inc. (COMEX), which are commodities exchanges operated by CME Group Inc.”

In its charges, the DoJ used the severe Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO Act), charging each of Nowak, Jordan and Smith with one count of conspiracy under the RICO Act.

The background and details to the DoJ charges were explained in a BullionStar article on Tuesday titled “LBMA Board Member & JP Morgan Managing Director Charged with Rigging Precious Metals“, which also broken the news that Nowak was a board member of the powerful London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), an Association which is dominated by bullion banks such as JP Morgan, and an Association which is in the self-proclaimed words of the LBMA is the “the world’s authority on precious metals”.

 

Bio of Michael Nowak on the board member page of the LBMA website – until September 20, 2019. Wayback machine original version here.  

Promoting a Fair, Effective and Transparent market

All through this week, Nowak’s continued role as a board member of the LBMA seemed strange in light of the DoJ charges, and stranger still that the LBMA claims that its Global Precious Metals Code that the Code:

“promotes a fair effective and transparent market. It provides market participants with Principles and Guidance to uphold high standards of business conduct. All of this creates confidence in the market for all participants”

More specifically, the LBMA’s Global Precious Metals Code states that:

“Market Participants should not engage in trading strategies or quote prices with the intent of hindering market functioning or compromising market integrity.”

“Such strategies also include collusive and/or manipulative practices, including but not limited to those in which a trader enters a bid or offer with the intent to cancel before execution (sometimes referred to as “spoofing”, “flashing” or “layering”) and other practices that create a false sense of market price, depth or liquidity.”

On Tuesday, we therefore wondered:

how does the LBMA explain that one of its Board of Directors has been charged in US Federal Courts of these very practices, using the RICO Act, an act that was created to take down mafia mobsters?”

while also asking:

“Will the LBMA remove Nowak from its Board of Directors? Will the LBMA reprimand or expel JP Morgan from its membership list?  

LBMA in discussions with JP Morgan

As the week progressed and the world’s financial media continued to cover the story, there was still no word out of the LBMA as to how it would react, if at all to the Michael Nowak story. This then promoted the Financial Times on Friday morning to ask the LBMA what it intended to do about the indictment of Nowak, one of its board members, to which the LBMA responded that it was merely in ‘discussions’ with JP Morgan.

According to the FT’s early story:

The London Bullion Market Association is in “discussions” with JP Morgan after its board member was indicted by the US Department of Justice for a “massive, multiyear scheme” to manipulate the precious metals markets.

The LBMA said that it had not made any decision to remove Michael Nowak, JP Morgan’s head of precious metals, from its board. “We are still in discussions with JP Morgan,” Aelred Connelly, a spokesmas for the LBMA, said. 

The DoJ indictment is an embarrassment for the LBMA, which represents London’s precious metals market, and launched a code of conduct for its members in 2017. JP Morgan, along with HSBC, dominates gold trading in London, and is one of the most powerful members of the LBMA. 

“People are shocked that an LBMA board member is at the centre of the DoJs case, and in disbelief that Nowak is still, according to the LBMA website, listed as a LBMA board member,” Ronan Manly, a precious metals analyst at BullionStar in Singapore, said.

 “The LBMA board sits above the entire LBMA governance structure, so even though the DoJ case is allegation at this stage, it taints the LBMA.”

 

David Meister, former Head of Enforcement at the CFTC, now lawyer for JP Morgan’s  Michael Nowak 

Nowak’s Bio removed from LBMA website

What exactly went down in the ‘discussions’ between LBMA and JP Morgan today is not clear, but within a few hours after the Financial Times’ initial story, the LBMA released a statement to the FT saying that:

“In light of the ongoing investigation by the Department of Justice, the LBMA, under the terms of its Articles of Association, has removed Mr Nowak from its board.” 

At the same time the LBMA quietly removed Michael Nowak’s bio from its board of directors page. The previous version of the LBMA Board members page, including Nowak, can be seen here. The new updated version where all references to Nowak have been removed, can be seen here.

Now that the LBMA has made its move, can the London Metal Exchange (LME) be far behind? For the same Michael Nowak, who is head of both base metals and precious metals trading at JP Morgan, is also on the LME ‘User Committee’ as can be seen on the LME website here, and in case the page changes, a Wayback Machine archive from today can be seen here.

Conclusion

All that remains for now is for Michael Nowak’s defense lawyer, David Meister of law firm Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom, the same Meister who was former Director of Enforcement for the CFTC from November 2010 to October 2013 under then chairman Gary Gensler, to show how he is going to get Nowak off the hook on this one.

While he’s at it, Meister needs to also explain how there is not a conflict of interest in representing Nowak, when the CFTC closed down an investigation into the manipulation of the silver markets in October 2013, an investigation that had been running since September 2018, saying that there was:

not a viable basis to bring an enforcement action with respect to any firm or its employees related to our investigation of silver markets.

And finally, does David Meister sleep soundly at night representing an alleged criminal enterprise of market manipulation at Jp Morgan, knowing that in July 2013, Meister stated in another CFTC enforcement case that:

“While forms of algorithmic trading are of course lawful, using a computer program that is written to spoof the market is illegal and will not be tolerated.  We will use the Dodd Frank anti-disruptive practices provision against schemes like this one to protect market participants and promote market integrity, particularly in the growing world of electronic trading platforms.”

iii) Other physical stories:

Always listen to Egon Von Greyerz

(courtesy Good as Gold/Australia/Von Greyerz)

EGON VON GREYERZ INTERVIEWED BY AS GOOD AS GOLD AUSTRALIA: GOLD TO REACH $10,000 – PROPERTY PRICES TO COLLAPSE

September 20, 2019 by Egon von Greyerz

In this interview, Brian & Darryl Panes from As Good As Gold Australia speak with Egon von Greyerz who confirms the world is running on empty.

Governments and Central Banks are panicking, having used up all their arsenal – massive money printing and hyperinflation lies ahead.

Gold at US$10,000 per ounce is just a starting point. Property values to lose 95% of their value relative to Gold. Preservation of wealth is vital, as we enter a period of extreme volatility with interest rates surging after a 5,000 year historical low.

Also:

  • Gold now starting the next leg of a massive bull market.
  • Gold going from west to east – West to run out of Gold.
  • Australia’s property market, is massive bubble.
  • Worldwide banking crisis in the making.
  • People have no savings, all destroyed by governments.
  • Central banks across the globe committed to money printing.
  • Bond market is biggest bubble ever, will trigger the biggest collapse the world has ever seen.
  • USD is the sickest of all currencies, only supported by debt and military.
  • Debt needs to implode so world can grow soundly again.
  • Gold severely suppressed, will explode to very high levels.
  • COMEX failure, will result in a run on physical metals.
  • Don’t sell any gold or silver for a very long time.

Egon von Greyerz is a Keynote speaker at the Gold and Alternative Investment Conference” in Sydney, Australia on October 24-26. 2019.

EGON VON GREYERZ INTERVIEWED BY AS GOOD AS GOLD AUSTRALIA: GOLD TO REACH $10,000 – PROPERTY PRICES TO COLLAPSE

Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Managing Partner
Matterhorn Asset Management
Zurich, Switzerland
Phone: +41 44 213 62 45

-END-

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

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Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0878/

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0848   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 7.17 POINTS OR 0.24%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 34.64 POINTS OR 0.13%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 34.63 POINTS OR 0.16%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.40/Euro FALLS TO 1.1035

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.21/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.98/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.72 and Brent: 64.58

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.51%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.88% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.23%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.39: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.33

3k Gold at $1501.30 silver at: 17.80   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 20/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.81

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.94 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9914 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0961 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.51%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.78% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.22%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6961..

Futures Frozen With $8.3 Billion Expiring At S&P 3,000 On Quad-Witching Friday

One week after Friday the 13th, a far more important for the market Friday has arrived: quad-witching day, when once every quarter we get the simultaneous expiration of contracts for index futures, index options, stock options, and single stock futures, and when increased volatility and an explosion in volumes usually follow. As such, these days are entirely at the mercy of dealer and trader positioning, and as Charlie McElligott pointed out yesterday, as of this moment the S&P is “shackled” by a “Long Gamma” death-grip, with some $8.3BN in expiration at the 3,000 strike, which will ensure that the S&P gravitates around 3,000 for most of the day.

 

Sure enough, overnight markets were largely uneventful, with European and Asian stocks climbing modestly on Friday as a busy week of central bank meetings drew to a close, while US equity futures traded up a modest 5 points to 3,013 with focus now likely to shift back to the trade war. Treasuries initially edged higher for a fifth day as dollar droped, but the entire move has since reversed.

 

Despite the “gamma gravity” pin, FOMC volatility, USD repo market stress and mixed macro numbers, US equities are managing to hold the line close less than 1% from a record high, while Europe’s Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose as much as 0.3%, poised for its highest close since May 2018, led higher by the more defensive and bond yield-sensitive telecom, healthcare and utilities sectors: Novartis was +1.3% after sales of its Cosentyx rose 1.7%. Oil stocks, including Total, Shell also climbed, with Brent heading for biggest weekly increase since January as traders wait to see whether Saudi Arabia can fulfill promises to swiftly repair a critical processing facility attacked last weekend

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks climbed after a four-day losing streak, as health care and technology firms led gains in a week packed with monetary policy decisions. Most of the major markets in the region were up, with India’s stock benchmark poised for its biggest jump in a decade after the government unexpectedly slashed the corporate tax rate to boost economic growth. As Saxo Bank notes, “India is a train wreck with credit worsening and consumer confidence measured by new car registrations plummeting. However, today news broke that the Indian government is stimulating the economy through cutting the corporate taxes for new domestic companies. The Nifty 50 Index was up 4% breaking above the recent trading range but in the greater picture (see chart) the technical picture looks ugly. As long as the global economy is slowing down and the USD remains strong India is an equity market investors should underweight.”

 

The Topix pared earlier gains and closed little changed as advances in health care stocks were offset by declines in utilities and industrial shares. The Shanghai Composite Index edged 0.2% higher, with Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine and Kweichow Moutai among the biggest boosts.

China’s move higher was despite trader disappointment in the latest PBOC easing as analysts called for stronger monetary stimulus from Beijing after China’s new gauge of borrowing costs – the Loan Prime Rate – was only slightly lowered Friday, from 4.25% to 4.20% for the 1 year rate, and kept unchanged at 4.85% for the 5 year rate which is likely to be used for mortgages, despite expectations for a modest cut. The boost to economic activity is expected to be slight. The rate is for banks’ best customers and total reductions so far, of 11 bps, are less than half of the Fed’s quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, reflecting Chinese policymakers’ concerns that much-cheaper credit could lead to unproductive investment and property bubbles.

“Since the new rate is relatively untested, the PBOC (People’s Bank of China) appears to be taking a measured approach at first,” Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China Economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.  “However, with economic activity likely to come under further pressure in the coming quarters and monetary easing so far failing to generate much of a pick-up in credit growth, we think the PBOC will need to start engineering larger declines before long.”

The move was far smaller than easings by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank over the past week, suggesting Chinese policymakers remain reluctant to join a global stimulus wave due to worries about mounting debt.  Still, analysts say Beijing’s restraint is being put to the test, as worsening economic data in August has raised fears that third-quarter growth could slip below 6%, breaching the lower end of the government’s 2019 target.  With higher U.S. tariffs looming, many China watchers believe more forceful measures will be needed soon to avoid a sharper slowdown.

Elsewhere in China, the yuan climbed after the People’s Bank of China announced that it will drain funds via a bill sale in Hong Kong, amid speculation that the PBOC is orchestrating another short squeeze as the offshore yuan interbank rates, known as Hibor, jumped on Friday, with the overnight tenor rising by the most in more than a month.  The CNH overnight Hibor surged 72bps, the most since Aug. 15, to 3.02567%, while the CNH 1-month tenor +13bps to 3.30433%, its first increase in five days.

In rates, European sovereign debt traded mixed while UST bond yields traded within basis-point either side of unchanged, with a slight flattening bias on the 2-yr/10-yr spreads. The gilt curve is a slight exception, with yields 1bp-2bps higher in those maturities. US Treasurys yields first dropped, sliding as low as 1.7550%, before rebounding to session highs as traders walked into the office.

 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rebounded in the green after trading lower for much of the European session; Sterling was among the week’s best performers in the G-10 but its recent rally faded after Ireland’s foreign minister said a Brexit deal was not near. The euro was set for its first weekly decline in three while the yen was set for its first weekly gain since Aug.

In commodities, oil prices traded higher on Friday morning, in quiet trade that mirrors the broader lack of conviction elsewhere. In terms of recent geopolitical developments; a Saudi-led coalition conducted a military operation in Yemen, destroying 4 locations reportedly being used for assembling remote-controlled boats and sea mines. Elsewhere, there were reports that US national security officials met yesterday to draft possible action against Iran and to refine a list of potential targets to strike in the event that President Trump were to order a military retaliation. In terms of metals; Gold is higher on the day, but continues to linger around the USD 1500/oz mark. Meanwhile, Steel futures look to cap off the week on the back foot, tracking Iron Ore prices lower since Monday ahead of a week-long holiday in China, the intensity of upcoming winter restrictions on mills, and recovering mine supplies.

In the latest geopolitical news, Saudi-led coalition conducted a military operation in Yemen in which it destroyed 4 locations used for assembling remote-controlled boats and sea mines. Elsewhere, Saudi Aramco Executive states that the attacks on the Khurais oil infrastructure targeted 4 locations in their oil production facilities; “confident we will be back to full production by the end of September.” Kuwait Foreign Minister is said to have received a call from Iran Foreign Minister Zarif in which they discussed regional developments as well as how to de-escalate tensions.

No major earnings are scheduled, several Fed speakers due

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,010.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 392.31
  • MXAP up 0.4% to 159.41
  • MXAPJ up 0.6% to 511.64
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 22,079.09
  • Topix up 0.04% to 1,616.23
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.1% to 26,435.67
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,006.45
  • Sensex up 5.7% to 38,148.97
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,730.75
  • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,091.52
  • German 10Y yield unchanged at -0.508%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1055
  • Brent Futures up 0.2% to $64.50/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 0.545%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 0.24%
  • Brent Futures up 0.2% to $64.50/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,503.76
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.01% to 98.27

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Signs that stress in U.S. funding markets is rebuilding ramped up pressure on the Federal Reserve to permanently increase reserves by boosting Treasury holdings, even as it was preparing a temporary liquidity injection for a fourth straight day
  • The Irish government moved to dampen hopes of an imminent breakthrough in Brexit negotiations, a day after EC President Jean-Claude Juncker’s comment that a divorce deal is possible sent the pound to a two-month high
  • The U.K. Supreme Court spent three days listening to testimony about the lawfulness of Boris Johnson’s suspension of Parliament. The judges’ questions targeted not whether his move to prorogue the legislature was incorrect, but what they could do about it if it was
  • A rogue oil trader caused $320m loss at a unit of Mitsubishi Corp. in unsanctioned derivatives deals. The unidentified employee from Petro-Diamond Singapore Pte has been fired and reported to police, Mitsubishi said in a statement
  • India cut tax on local businesses to one of the lowest rates in Asia, while providing a more than $20 billion boost to revive economic growth from a six-year low

Asian equity markets traded mixed/flat as risk appetite picked slightly up from the indecision seen on Wall St where stocks meandered amid a slew of central bank announcements, in which the DJIA failed to hold on to early gains and finished lower and the S&P 500 returned flat despite an initial approach to within 6 points of its all-time high. ASX 200 (+0.2%) was underpinned by increasing expectations for the RBA to lower rates next month and with gold miners front-running the gains after the precious metal reclaimed the psychological key USD 1500/oz level, while Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) was also higher but with upside restricted by currency flows and amid mixed inflation data. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) were indecisive following mixed trade-related rhetoric as NEC Director Kudlow suggested a softer US-China mood, while President Trump’s advisor Pillsbury warned the President is ready to escalate the trade war if a deal is not agreed soon and that tariffs could increase to 50% or 100%. PBoC actions were also somewhat ambiguous as the central bank cut its 1yr Loan Prime Rate by 5bps to 4.20% as expected but refrained from a similar anticipated cut to the 5yr Loan Price Rate of 4.85% and although it announced another substantial injection of CNY 120bln in reverse repos today, its total operations including MLFs resulted to a net weekly drain of CNY 15bln. Finally, 10yr JGBs were initially lower and yields increased amid the positive tone in Japan and after the BoJ rinban announcement in which it reduced purchase amounts in all of today’s maturities from the belly to super-long end, although prices later recovered to trade near-flat.

Top Asian News

  • Philippines May Cut Key Rate Next Week as Inflation Ebbs
  • India, U.S. Eye Middle Ground on Trade Ahead of Modi-Trump Meet
  • India Market Participants Cheer Government’s Corporate Tax Cuts
  • Dyson Plans to Add More Than 2,000 Jobs in Southeast Asia

Major European bourses are firmer (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%) following a mostly positive Asia-Pac lead, trading in relatively thin ranges as the market takes a breather following the prior two day’s flurry of Central Bank activity; with indices having picked up somewhat from their relatively unchanged start as the session progressed. Some choppiness has been seen however; and it is worth noting that it is Quadruple witching day, with September contracts set to expire for a number of European and US single stock, index and option futures. Underperformance is being seen in the FTSE100 (-0.3%) as GBP strengthens on the back of growing Brexit deal hopes. The sectors are relatively mixed, and unreflective of any particular risk configuration; Energy, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, Financials, Telecoms and Utilities are higher while Materials and Industrials are lower. In terms of notable individual movers; Thomas Cook Group (-17.0%) sunk on premarket news that recapitalisation and reorganisation discussions are continuing, may result in the interest of existing shareholders being significantly diluted and poses the risk of no recovery. RBS (+3.6%) moved higher on the news that the company had hired former Natwest Markets head Alison Rose as CEO. A disappointing trade update from Investec (-6.2%), in which H1 EPS guidance was revised lower, saw shares sell off. Finally, Casino (+2.5%) moved higher on the news that the Co. had entered into discussions with Aldi France re. the potential acquisition of Leader Price.

Top European News

  • Ireland Warns U.K. Divorce Deal Is Not Close: Brexit Update
  • Argentum Bonds Convertible Into Wirecard Shares Priced at 107.1%
  • Pound Set for Longest Winning Streak Since January; Dollar Drops
  • Funding Markets Are Unhappy and Things May Be About to Get Worse

In FX, the Pound remains perky, but not quite so brimming with Brexit breakthrough optimism after EU’s Juncker sparked a short squeeze by intimating that a deal can still be done before the October 31 deadline on the premise that Irish border conditions are met by any alternative arrangement put forward by the UK. His hopeful remarks were backed up by Britain’s Junior Brexit Minister, but dampened by Irish Foreign Minister Coveney and reports that EU officials are frustrated that practical solutions have still not been provided by PM Johnson. Cable extended gains to and just beyond offers at 1.2580, but faded ahead of Fib resistance at 1.2589 and is now back below 1.2550, while Eur/Gbp stopped just short of support below 0.8800 (at 0.8777) and has subsequently rebounded through the big figure and a 0.8809 Fib.

  • CHF – Still holding a firmer line in wake of yesterday’s SNB Quarterly Policy review when benchmark rates were left unchanged against some expectations for an ease to counter last week’s 10 bp ECB cut, and inflation projections were based on steady policy throughout the forecast horizon. The Franc is consolidating around 0.9900 vs the Dollar as the DXY meanders between 98.357-139 and well off fleeting post-FOMC peaks, with Eur/Chf pivoting 1.0950.
  • EUR/JPY/AUD/CAD – All narrowly mixed against the broadly subdued Greenback, as the single currency continues to straddle 1.1050 in generally quieter trade after all the ECB induced volatility, and amidst the ongoing constrains of heavy option expiries that blanket nearest round numbers again today (2.6 bn at the 1.1000 strike, 1 bn from 1.1020-25, 1.1 bn at 1.1050 and 1.8 bn at 1.1100). Similarly, the Yen remains rooted around 108.00 following mixed Japanese inflation data, with stiff technical obstacles capping the upside, like a 108.43 Fib and expiry interest in close proximity Usd/Jpy (1.2 bn between 107.50-60 and 1.1 bn at 108.00). Elsewhere, the Aussie and Loonie are both in familiar territory on the 0.6800 handle and within 1.3275-50 parameters respectively, but Usd/Cad has another opportunity to breakout pending the nature of Canadian retail sales after failing to get much independent inspiration from CPI earlier this week.
  • NZD/NOK – The Kiwi is languishing at the bottom of the G10 table, with Nzd/Usd under 0.6300 and Aud/Nzd over 1.0800 ahead of next week’s RBNZ meeting that could underscore expectations for more easing before year end, if not culminate in an OCR cut with probability for another 25 bp move circa 30%. However, the Norwegian Krona is also underperforming and extending its retreat from post-Norges Bank hike highs on perceptions of no further policy normalisation, with Eur/Nok significantly closer to 9.9500 option expiries (1.4 bn) than interest at 9.8500 (2.1 bn) and 9.8125 or so at one stage on Thursday.

In commodities, the crude complex trades higher on Friday morning, in quiet trade that mirrors the broader lack of conviction elsewhere. In terms of recent geopolitical developments; a Saudi-led coalition conducted a military operation in Yemen, destroying 4 locations reportedly being used for assembling remote-controlled boats and sea mines. Elsewhere, there were reports that US national security officials met yesterday to draft possible action against Iran and to refine a list of potential targets to strike in the event that President Trump were to order a military retaliation. In terms of metals; Gold is higher on the day, but continues to linger around the USD 1500/oz mark. Meanwhile, Steel futures look to cap off the week on the back foot, tracking Iron Ore prices lower since Monday ahead of a week-long holiday in China, the intensity of upcoming winter restrictions on mills, and recovering mine supplies.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:15am: Fed’s Williams Gives Presentation at SNB Conference
  • 11:20am: Fed’s Rosengren Speaks in New York
  • 12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, prior $4.69t
  • 1pm: Fed’s Kaplan to Speak in Moderated Q&A

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

For many sports fans, much attention today will be on the Rugby World Cup opening game in Japan. Despite being a big sports fan I’ve always been a little on the apathetic side towards rugby as when I was 13 my rugby master made me cry. In the first two years at senior school we were quasi forced to play rugby. I was in the team as I was fairly big for my age and I could catch and pass. However I was getting less and less keen on being continually taken out by 13 year olds that were starting to benchpress. As such I asked to play football instead. My rugby teacher shouted at me, told me he was very disappointed, and that I would be wasted in football. I fought back the tears and went to play football averagely for the next 5 years but at least I had a lot of fun! So I’ll be cheering England on but will be relatively relaxed about the outcome due to insecurities from 30 plus years ago about children having bigger biceps and pectorals than me.

It’s been a scrum of central bank activity over the last 36 hours but without any real direction at the end of it. Indeed the price action yesterday was pretty muted on the whole, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closing unch and +0.07% respectively. 2y and 10y yields ended -2.4bps (a further -0.9bps this morning) and -1.2bps (a further -1.7bps) lower respectively which steepened the curve a touch to 4.6bps (3.8bps this morning). I was off EMR duties yesterday but my main problem with Wednesday’s FOMC was the re-flattening of the curve it encouraged. We were back above 8bps earlier in the day on Wednesday pre the FOMC announcement and have flattened back since to as low as 1.25bp yesterday morning. So one to watch with the Fed seemingly comfortable being behind market expectations.

Back to yesterday and following two days of declines, Brent Crude pared back gains of +3.10% at the intra-day peak to close up +1.26% while Gold also pared back gains to close +0.34%. Brent is now c.+7% above Friday’s closing price, having been up +14.61% on Monday. The moves came as the Iranian foreign minister, Javad Zarif said in a CNN interview that there would be “all-out war” in the event of a strike by the US or Saudi Arabia, though this was tempered with him also saying that “I am making a very serious statement that we don’t want to engage in a military confrontation.”

One topic that’s been a bit quiet over the last few days is Brexit. There were some interesting developments yesterday though as the UK submitted some confidential documents to the EU that “reflect the ideas the UK has put forward”. Many would have thought these would have been quickly dismissed by the EU but a few hours later European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told Sky News that talks earlier this week with Mr Johnson were “rather positive” and that a deal could be reached in the next few weeks. He also said that “if the objectives of the backstop are met through alternative arrangements, we don’t need the backstop”. It’s unlikely that this was a direct response to the submitted documents, and Juncker himself said they’d arrived the previous evening and he hadn’t read them yet, but the fact there were positive EU comment could be seen as some small progress. Sterling immediately rallied 50 cents just after London went home on these comments before dipping a touch to close up +0.43% (up a further +0.20% this morning) at $1.2526, its highest level in two months. The other development yesterday was the end of the Supreme Court hearings on the prorogation of Parliament where Lady Hale, the Supreme Court President, said we’d hear the outcome of that “early next week”.

Staying in the UK, as expected there was no change in policy from the BoE with the MPC voting unanimously to keep the bank rate on hold at 0.75%. Our economists noted that the overall tone was undoubtedly more dovish, noting three changes to the August inflation report. The first was the MPC added to its forward guidance with regards to Brexit, specifically in the situation of an extension. The second was the MPC continued to talk up risks surrounding the UK economy and the third was highlighting mixed signals from the labour market. In terms of what this means for policy, the Brexit endgame will ultimately dictate the near and medium term BoE outlook so we’re in limbo for now.

As for the other central bank meetings yesterday, there was no change in policy from either the SNB or SARB, as expected, however a slight surprise was the 25bp hike by the Norges Bank. Nevertheless, the message that this would perhaps be the last hike in the cycle may put to an end the Norges Bank’s run as the lone big central bank still hiking.

Continuing with central banks, for the third day in succession the Fed injected cash into the funding market, totalling $75bn. With the repo rate normalising again back towards its typical range, concerns appear to have abated for now. Nevertheless the NY Fed has planned another $75 bn overnight repo operation for today. Over at the ECB take-up for the new TLTRO allotment was very low at just €3.4bn, relative to expectations for at least €20bn. So this suggests very low demand or capacity for fresh funding and a limited willingness to roll over the new TLTRO. However our rates’ strategists did previously flag that this had the potential to disappoint given the timing of the ECB meeting. The next operation is likely to be more in focus.

Speaking of the ECB, both Coeure and Lautenschlaeger spoke yesterday. The most notable takeaway from the former was his reference to “venturing close to the line between monetary and fiscal” and that it’s time for fiscal policy “to take the charge”. The latter said that “other stakeholders have to step up too…I’m talking about using fiscal space in a sensible way when you have it”. At the margin a bit hawkish then although European bonds were fairly unmoved, with 10y Bund yields ending fairly flat.

This morning in Asia, markets are largely heading higher with the Nikkei (+0.37%), Hang Seng (+0.03%), Shanghai Comp (+0.17%) and Kospi (+0.40%) all up. Elsewhere futures on the S&P 500 are trading flat. In terms of overnight data releases, China’s September 1y loan prime rate came in line with consensus at 4.20% while 5y rate came in 5bps higher than expectations at 4.85%. We’ve also seen Japan’s August inflation data with CPI and core CPI both printing in line with consensus at +0.3% yoy and +0.5% yoy respectively while core-core CPI came in one-tenth higher than consensus at +0.6% yoy.

One of the main stories overnight has been the BoJ making cuts to its bond purchases this morning after Governor Kuroda highlighted in yesterday’s news conference that the BoJ wants a steeper curve and won’t allow a prolonged decline in yields. The BoJ used its regular operation today to lower buying across three maturity zones by a combined JPY 50bn, making it the first time since introducing the yield-curve control in 2016 where the BoJ has cut purchases in all three segments simultaneously. Purchases in the 5-10 year zone were reduced to JPY 380bn (vs. JPY 400bn previously), 10-25 years zone to JPY 120bn (vs. JPY 140bn) and 25+ years zone to JPY 30bn (vs. JPY 40bn). The curve initially steepened in response with the 10y yield up +2bps to -0.205% while the 20y yield increased by +3bps and 30y by +4bps. However 10 and 20yrs have reversed the move but 30yrs are still up +1.4bps. The Japanese yen is up +0.16%.

As for the data yesterday, the September Philly Fed business outlook weakened slightly to 12.0 from 16.8 but it did still come in marginally above expectations. That puts it in the middle of the range since last November while there was a positive read-through from the stabilisation in the capex component. Elsewhere, jobless claims stayed relatively unchanged at a lowly 208k (vs. 213k expected), which sent the 4 week moving average down to a 7-week low of 212.25k. Elsewhere, the August leading index was flat, and existing home sales rose +1.3% mom and more than expected. Prior to that the only other data came from the UK where August retail sales were broadly in line. It’s worth also noting that the OECD revised down forecasts for global growth in 2019 and 2020, to 2.9% (from 3.2%) and 3.0% (from 3.4%), which if realised would make this the first year of sub-3% global growth since 2009.

Finally to the day ahead, which is very quiet for data with only August PPI in Germany, Q2 wages in France, September consumer confidence for the Euro Area and Q2 household change in net worth in the US due. We will however hear from the Fed’s Williams, Rosengren and Kaplan which will be worth keeping an eye on in light of the FOMC meeting, while the ECB’s Rimsevics and Visco are due to speak

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

 

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.17 POINTS OR 0.24%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 33.28 POINTS OR 0.13%   /The Nikkei closed UP 34.64 POINTS OR 0.16%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .20%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0878 /Oil UP TO 58.72 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.68 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0878 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0848 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA

My goodness did that escalate fast.  A Chinese trade delegation has cancelled its USA farm visit to Montana and agrictulre officials are returning to China sooner than expected.  That sent odds of a trade deal reeling..

(zerohedge)

Stocks Plunge After China Trade Delegation Cancels Trip

Update: This is the catalyst: Montana Farm Bureau says the Chinese delegation has cancelled its US farm visit to Montana, and agriculture officials are returning to China sooner than expected.

Sending the odds of a trade deal reeling…

Source: Bloomberg

 

*  *  *

Well that escalated quickly…S&P crashed back below 3,000

All major indices erasing all the post-FOMC gains…

Hog futures limit down…

Yuan plunged…

Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y Yield also tumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

Our resident expert on UK affairs checks in and stats that the odds of a bad Brexit may be increasing due to the strengthening of liberal Democrats over Labour.  This is one big mess but I am counting on Bo Jo to pull this out of the fire

(Mish Shedlock)

Increasing Odds Of A Bad Brexit Deal As Lib Dems Leap Ahead Of Labour

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The latest UK polls place the Liberal Democrats ahead of labour. It’s not all what it seems.

Lib Dem Leapfrog

 

Election Maps UK@ElectionMapsUK

Westminster Voting Intention

CON: 32% (=)
LDM: 23% (+4)
LAB: 21% (-2)
BXP: 14% (=)
GRN: 4% (-3)

Via @YouGov.
Changes w/ 9-10 Sep.

Caution Advised

This is just one poll.

It is in contrast to another recent poll.

Matt Singh

@MattSingh_

I guess they didn’t care

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Clear Position

Caution aside, the poll result is not exactly surprising.

Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson promises a clear position: Overturn Article 50 and stay in the EU.

In contrast, Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn promises a referendum.

Channel 4 News

@Channel4News

“I think the important thing is to put the offer before the people and they will make the choice.”

Jeremy Corbyn says that voters should decide in a referendum if the UK should remain in the EU or leave with a new deal.

Embedded video

Corbyn proposes a referendum in which voters decide to remain or let him negotiate a customs union.

Calculated Moves

This all seems like political madness, but it is a calculated move by both Corbyn and Swinson.

  1. Swinson wants an election before there is a result. If she can achieve that, Labour will get crushed by its wishy washy policy. But if there is a result before the election the platform of Remain is totally useless.
  2. On the other hand, Corbyn wants a result, any result, before there is an election.
  3. The problem for both Corbyn and Swinson is they do not want an election to be to the advantage of Boris Johnson.

Bad Deal Increasingly Likely

Corbyn may very well support a deal, any deal, just to prevent an election blowout.

I suspect he would even opt for Theresa May’s inept deal, flat out as is.

Magic Increasingly Likely

A magic solution, despite all the protestations from the EU regarding the backstop seems increasingly likely.

It would solve a problem for Johnson (who by the way would be right about getting a deal), and it would give Labour a one-on-one go at Johnson.

Why?

Because any solution, no matter what, takes out both the Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats.

Flies in the Ointment

One problem with what I just proposed is the EU is increasingly belligerent. And it’s obvious to the UK.

Corbyn will of course grant a “free vote”. He can hardly be for a people’s choice and then not grant MPs the right to vote as they please. Labour might not go along.

Theresa May’s deal has been defeated three times already.

But if MPs are hell bent on stopping “No Deal” to the point of getting any deal, no matter bad, then a bad deal will be the result.

Synopsis

  1. Labour wants to sidetrack the Liberal Democrats and vice versa.
  2. Corbyn does not really want a referendum. He would get killed by one.
  3. Swinson’s claim that her number one priority is to stop No Deal is a lie. Her number one priority is to sink Labour.
  4. The cross section of the above points keeps no deal in play despite all sides claiming they want a deal.

Brexit Guaranteed

Brexit, by some definition, is pretty much guaranteed.

But as I have stated before, Remain is far better than a bad deal.

Later today, the UK supreme court will rule on prorogation. The resolution of the above points will have a far greater impact on a deal (or no deal) than the court decision

 

END

GERMANY.

Germany reaches a climate plan which is fiscally neutral.  This disappoints the street greatly as they were counting on a huge German stimulus

(zerohedge)

Germany Disappoints: Announces Massive Climate Plan (That Is Fiscally Neutral)

Despite all the hope of fiscal largesse from the market and pressure from ECB’s Draghi, Germany has unveiled a “3-digit-billion” euro plan to address climate change, but it will have “neutral impact” on government finances.

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government reached a deal Friday on a broad climate plan for Germany, a coalition source said, as tens of thousands of protesters rallied demanding more environmental protection.

After marathon overnight talks dragging more than 18 hours, the coalition reached “an agreement with many measures and an annual monitoring mechanism” on meeting climate targets, said a government source.

The plan, which covers a slew of measures from tackling emissions in the energy and industrial sectors, to incentives for zero-emission electric vehicles or public transport, was due to be unveiled at a press conference later Friday.

The package is worth about 50 billion euros ($55 billion), according to local media reports. That’s about the same amount Scholz has said would be available for a stimulus package to boost Europe’s biggest economy in the event of a severe recession.

But, as Germany’s DPA reports, Germany won’t take on additional debt to fund the package agreed between governing parties, citing unidentified people close to the coalition.

The package to save the world will be paid for by increased taxes – Consumer prices of gasoline and diesel to rise EU0.03 per liter from 2021, and by EU0.09 to EU0.15 per liter by 2026; and funds from a national carbon trading scheme. Additionally, Germany stated that it may issue green bonds in the future.

The bottom line is simple – get back to work Mrs. Lagarde.

end

GERMANY/COMMERZBANK

Troubled German bank now plans to cut 4300 jobs and to sell its stake in Polish bank M Bank

(zerohedge)

Commerzbank Plans 4,300 Job Cuts, Sale Of Stake In Polish Lender As Part Of ‘Strategic Review’

Six months after a possible merger with German rival Deutsche Bank floundered, Commerzbank has apparently come up with a new plan to mollify anxious shareholders.

To wit, the bank is considering whether to cut 4,300 jobs as part of its new “strategic plan” to try and bolster the banks profits after its share price hit an all-time low. 

The headcount reduction would be softened by the hiring of another 2,000 people in “strategic areas”, making for a net headcount reduction of just 2,300.

During the review, Commerzbank also raised the possibility of selling a stake in its Polish “MBank” unit – a sale that would free up cash, Bloomberg reports, while Commerzbank would absorb MBank’s Comdirect online brokerage unit.

Commerzbank executives said the firm-wide job cuts were “regrettable but inevitable,” and that the sale of a piece of MBank would reduce risk-weighted assets by €17 billion ($18.7 billion).

Commerzbank also plans to trim the number of branches by 200 to just 800 worldwide, according to Reuters.

These draft measures will be discussed at a meeting of Commerzbank’s supervisory board on Sept. 25 and Sept. 26, as no final decisions have been made.

The bank’s quest to revive its share price has taken on additional urgency after its shares hit a record low last month amid a German economic contraction that is making traders increasingly nervous.

Commerzbank CEO Martin Zielke has already given up on some of the original targets for his turnaround plan, which is expected to run through 2020. Initially, the plan had aimed to reduce global headcount by 7,300. But the bank this year revised that number to less than 5,300.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY

This will never be allowed: Turkey wants nuclear weapons

(Gatestone/Bekdil)

Next For Turkey? Nuclear Weapons!

Authored by Burak Bekdil via The Gatestone Institute,

During the 17 years he has ruled NATO-member Turkey, the country’s Islamist strongman, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has rarely missed an opportunity stealthily to convert Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s secular, pro-Western establishment into a rogue state hostile to Western interests. Erdoğan now wants to make it a rogue state with nuclear weapons.

“They say we can’t have nuclear-tipped missiles, though some have them. This, I can’t accept,” Erdoğan said in a September 4 speech, while conveniently forgetting that Turkey has signed the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1980. In other words, Turkey’s elected leader publicly declares that he intends to breach an international treaty signed by his country. Turkey is also a signatory to the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, which bans all nuclear detonations, for any purpose.

 

For several decades, Turkey, being a staunch NATO ally, was viewed as the trusted custodian of some of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. In the early 1960s, the U.S. started stockpiling nuclear warheads at the Turkish military’s four main airbases (Ankara Mürted, Malatya Erhaç, Eskişehir and Balıkesir). If ordered, Turkish air force pilots were tasked with hitting designated Warsaw Pact targets.

Squadrons of jets designated for carrying nuclear bombs were kept at each airbase (first F-100s, followed by F-104s and finally by F-4s) on a round-the-clock basis. Each base housed a small U.S. military unit in charge of the nuclear stockpile. In addition, a Turkish-U.S. military base in Incirlik in southern Turkey kept nuclear warheads to be operated by U.S. military. “With that role Turkey significantly added to NATO’s deterrence in Cold War years,” said Yusuf Kanlı, a prominent columnist and president of the Ankara-based think tank, Sigma Turkey, in a private interview on September 9.

After the end of the Cold War, the nuclear weapons in Turkish possession (at the four airbases, except Incirlik) were gradually removed, while nuclear guardianship came to a halt. Presently, the nuclear warheads at Incirlik still remain at the disposal of the U.S. military under a special U.S.-Turkish treaty. That treaty makes Turkey the host of U.S. nuclear weapons. According to the usage protocol, however, both Washington and Ankara need to give consent to any use of the nuclear weapons deployed at Incirlik.

This is not, in fact, the first time Erdoğan has voiced an eagerness to make Turkey a nuclear-armed state. As early as 2008 — when he was the poster child of naïve Western statesmen and intellectuals who believed he was a reformist democrat — Erdoğan said:

“Countries that oppose Iran’s nuclear weapons should not have nuclear weapons themselves.”

Despite his use of the plural “countries,” Erdoğan was apparently pointing his finger at the country he hates the most: Israel, not the United States.

In a 2010 speech, Erdoğan described Israel as “the principal threat to peace” in the Middle East. In that speech, he repeated his skepticism about whether Iran intended to use its nuclear-fuel program to build nuclear weapons, and said there was no such uncertainty concerning Israel’s undeclared arsenal.

If Turkey overtly or covertly launched a nuclear weapons program — as Erdoğan apparently wishes — the move could well have a domino effect on the region. Turkey’s regional adversaries would be alarmed, and Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria and Greece might be tempted to launch their own nuclear weapons programs. Erdoğan should not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons.

END
IRAN/USA
this is going to hurt Iran as Trump sanctions the National Bank of Iraq. This means no financial transactions whatsoever will be allowed with this National Bank
(zerohedge)

Trump Unveils “Highest Sanctions Ever Imposed On A Country”

In a likely effort to satisfy the hawks and keep up “maximum pressure” on Iran in the wake of its alleged attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities (by Saudi and US accounts), President Trump on Friday has announced the “highest sanctions ever imposed on a country”. This is the long awaited “response” coordinated with the Saudis – according to the press briefing – in the aftermath of last week’s devastating aerial attacks on the kingdom.

Addressing reporters in the oval office, the president outlined new sanctions targeting the Iranian national bank, which he described as going “right to the top”.

“We’ve never done it to this level. It’s too bad what’s happening with Iran, it’s going to hell,” President Trump added.

CNN Politics

@CNNPolitics

President Trump: “These are the highest sanctions ever imposed on a country, we’ve never done it to this level. It’s too bad what’s happening with Iran, it’s going to hell”

Embedded video

“They’re practically broke, they are broke. And They could solve the problem very easily. All they have to do is stop with the terror,” the president said further, alluding to Iran’s downward spiraling economy after over a year of biting US-led sanctions.

He also called Iran the “number one sponsor of terror” worldwide. However, echoing his prior willingness to enter into direct no conditions talks with Iran’s leaders over their nuclear program, Trump acknowledged Iran has “great potential” assuming it would abandon its “terror sponsorship” and return to good faith dialogue with the US.

Though precise details of the new impending sanctions on the Islamic Republic’s national bank were not discussed in the president’s comments, US Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin indicated the new actions against Tehran would be “very big” and will target last source of funds for Iran.

Daniel Larison@DanielLarison

Is he sanctioning the sky now? https://twitter.com/afp/status/1175062686960357381 

AFP news agency

@AFP

#BREAKING Iran: Trump announces ‘highest sanctions ever imposed on a country’

View image on Twitter

“Both the central bank of Iran as well as National Development Fund – which is their sovereign wealth fund – will be cut off from our banking system,” Mnuchin said. “We’ve now cut off all source of funds to Iran,” he added.

The obvious question remains is whether if these are the “highest sanctions”…can they get any higher at all from here? We’re sure Washington can find a way.

end

IRAN

Houthis vow to halt attacks on Saudi soil if the Saudi stop their constant assault on them in Yemen

(zerohedge)

Houthis Vow To Halt Attacks On Saudi Soil As Iran Warns Can Respond From “Sea To Ocean”

Yemen’s Houthis have announced at the end of a dramatic week following the early Saturday aerial attacks on two Saudi Aramco facilities which knocked out up to half of the kingdom’s daily oil production their intent to cease targeting Saudi territories.

Pro-Houthi Al Masirah TV announced the news Friday, citing president of the rebels’ ruling council Mahdi al-Mashat, who said the group “will halt all attacks on Saudi territories with ballistic missiles and drones,” as translated by Bloomberg.

 

Remains of missiles and drones allegedly used to attack the Aramco oil facilities, via Reuters.

However, the statement said it was conditioned on the Saudi coalition halting its own devastating airstrikes over Yemen as well, which have been a constant since Yemen’s civil war brought Saudi military intervention in 2015. Houthi forces have “the right to respond to any aggression” the statement added.

 

Both Washington and Riyadh have long accused the Houthis of being the long arm of Tehran, given the Shia forces are ideologically aligned with the Islamic Republic.

Meanwhile on Friday Iran itself vowed to keep up its own ‘counter-pressure campaign’ against US threats “from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea and to the Indian Ocean.”

If the Americans think of any plots, the Iranian nation will respond from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea and to the Indian Ocean,” a senior military adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, said.

And separately a former chief commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Rahim-Safavi, echoed the threat: “The U.S. president (Donald Trump) will face the same fate as the six presidents before him who failed to impose their political will on the Iranian nation, and Trump will join history with the same yearning,” according to Reuters.

Both sides have expressed a desire to avoid war, yet this week Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif promised “all-out war” would result in any US or Saudi attack on Iran.

But the Houthis’ apparent attempt to offer an olive branch Friday in the form of announcing a halt to all attacks on Saudi soil could be a sign the nearly half-decade long war is possibly in the beginning phases of winding down.

Perhaps Tehran brought its own pressure to bear on its alleged proxies following the devastating Aramco attacks, which clearly did its work in sending a forceful message.

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1035 DOWN .0009 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.94 DOWN 0.067 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2511   DOWN   0.0011  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3266 UP .0006 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 9 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1035 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 7.17 POINTS OR 0.24% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 33.28 POINTS OR 0.13%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .20%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 33.28 POINTS OR 0.13%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.17 POINTS OR 0.24%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 20% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 34 .64 POINTS OR 0.16%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1503.25

silver:$17.87-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.78% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.22 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 98.40 DOWN 6 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.25% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.21%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.24%//DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:.94  UP 4 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 70 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.31% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.44% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1002  DOWN     .0043 or 43 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.95 DOWN .115 OR YEN UP 12  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2488 DOWN .0034 POUND DOWN 34  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 10 basis points to 1.3269

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0909    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0873  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7426 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.21%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.77 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.21 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index 98.62 UP 35  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 11.50 OR  0.16%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 10.31 POINTS OR .08%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 31.70 POINTS 0.56%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 41.00 POINTS or 0.47%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 4.99 POINTS OR 0.02%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 58/85 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 64.88 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.93  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.08 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 8  BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.52 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  58.09//

 

 

BRENT :  64.64

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.72  down 6 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.15..down 8 basis pts..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1019 ( down 25   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.54 DOWN .521 (YEN UP 52 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.49 up 22 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2474 down 48  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7413

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.98   UP 0.03 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 3 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3276 down 16 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0909  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.1198 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.52%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 65.20 POINTS OR 0.80%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 65.20 POINTS OR .80%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.32 CLOSED UP 1.27

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.158%//libor RISING

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks & Bond Yields Sink Amid Quad Witch Chaos, Trade Turmoil, & Powell Promises

While Jay Powell did his best to promise more QE – spiking stocks – China trade headlines spoiled the stock market party by week-end, but bonds and gold were bid.

The odds of a trade deal tumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

Interesting that Fed’s Bullard said that “IT COULD BE WE ARE OVERESTIMATING TRADE WAR IMPACT”

The Fed remains its most split ever:

  • Bullard: Recession straight ahead!
  • Rosengren: Bubbles ready to burst!

And among all of this is the Fed’s biggest liquidity crisis in over a decade (that will now continue until October 10th) – that few understand and so will just brush off… until its effects ripple out…trade accordingly.

Chinese markets ended the week lower…

Source: Bloomberg

European markets continued their bounce today, scrambling back into the green for the week…

Source: Bloomberg

The China headlines spoiled Powell’s spike, leaving all the major indices red for the week (Trannies worst)…

The S&P 500 algos were seemingly desperate to pin around 3,000 – thanks in large part to the gamma from quad witch… but failed!

 

The S&P 500 is up 2.4% from its highs a year ago…

Source: Bloomberg

After the quant quake, momo factor stocks soared this week (after crashing 10% last week) – biggest weekly gain since May 2016…

Source: Bloomberg

Roku was routed for the second week in a row (but is still up 240% YTD)…

Source: Bloomberg

 

After the bond bloodbath last week, Treasury yields tumbled this week with the long-end dramatically outperforming…

 

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields fell back below 1.75%…

 

Source: Bloomberg

The volume of global negative-yielding debt re-accelerated again this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Between the IPO debacle and comments from Fed’s Rosengren, WeWork bonds tumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Of course the liquidity crisis was front and center for many. As Bloomberg’s Edward Bolingbroke notes, it’s been a turbulent few days for U.S. swap traders amid the repo rate surge and the subsequent emergency liquidity measures.

Source: Bloomberg

On Thursday, the spread tightened to a record low, in a sign the market was disappointed that the Federal Reserve hadn’t introduced a permanent solution to address concerns of a funding squeeze. The two-year swap spreads rallied after the New York Fed announced more repo operations, showing that worries over financing costs were ebbing.

The spread between Effective Funds Rates and IOER blew out…

Source: Bloomberg

 

The Dollar Index ended the week higher but chopped around like a penny stock…

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan tumbled after today’s canceled trade meeting…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Copper was worst on the week as PMs managed gains (silver outperforming) while crude surged…

NOTE – the china trade headlines sent crude and copper lower today and PMs higher

Source: Bloomberg

Gold bounced back up off $1500 after falling back to that level after the Saudi spike…

 

After the bombing of a Saudi refinery last weekend, oil prices ended up 6% on the week (well below the 15-20% initial spike)…

 

Palladium surged to a new record high…

Source: Bloomberg

Lean Hogs were limit down after China canceled its trip to farmland

 

And finally, just in case you wondered, this is the longest and deepest PMI cycle of the past 20 years

“Transitory”?

But, “buy and hold”…

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Global Macro Monitor analyze stuff pretty good.  Here they outline 3 reasons for the lack of plumbing in the money markets.

i believe they are bang on.

(courtesy Global Macro Monitor)

Beware Mocking Bubbles & Bears

Via Global Macro Monitor,

Once again, seeing lots of articles and talking heads mocking bubbles and the bears, which is usually a sign a big bubble is going to burst.  The last time we saw this kind of taunting of the bears was three days before the bear market, which we think is on, began in January 2018.

Here’s what we wrote,

Finally, you also see the investing public openly mocking the bears during the later stages of a bull market. We see a lot of that these days. Just check your twitter feed.  –  GMM, January 23, 2018

 

Stress In Money Markets

Nobody really knows for certain what is causing the stress in the money markets, but our calculated guess is it is:

1)  somehow related to the massive new issuance of Treasuries, which is sucking liquidity out of the markets, as prices are repressed and not allowed to clear –>  think,  a) rent control, where the excesses have to be cleared through quantities,  and  b) Le Chatelier’s principle, where, in a dynamic equilibrium, pressure on one variable has to be offset by movement in other variables; 

2) primary dealers stuffed with Treasuries having to fund themselves, and

3) though there are still $1.4 trillion of excess reserves in the banking system, it is possible only a few banks hold the bulk and are hoarders.  In other words, another top-heavy distribution problem, along with wealth and income, where the few own the much.

Whatever the case, the markets are so distorted now and becoming more so, especially by the false belief that central banks can even now fine-tune a Stradivarius violin.  Haha!

We believe quantitative easing and the massive expansion of central bank balance sheets are the financial equivalence of global warming, ie, excessive carbon emissions. Thus, traders and investors should expect more extreme weather  market conditions.

Didn’t you see this coming?

To be fair to Adam,  we took the headline a bit out of context to make our point.  Please read his article here.

Discount The Street

During my days on Wall Street, it was stunning to watch how many would sell their souls and anything else to help them make their year-end bonus.  I specifically remember a sales pitch by some bozo about how the Mexican Peso was going to become the next dollar, less than 12 months before it fricking blew!   We laughed him out of the office.

This is one reason why Mr. Market is so cold-blooded,  doesn’t correctly discount risk, and tends to have a one in every 10,000-year event (high sigma crash) almost every 10 years.

So, folks, when listening to the Street, bubble vision, the market talking heads, and even central bankers and policymakers,  take heed the words of the great American author,  Upton Sinclair.

end

The Fed Repo is oversubscribed for the 4th straight day but the funding drops to a touch over 75 billion. They still did not know what caused the plumbing to seize up but Goldman Sachs states that in very short order the Fed will engage in QE4 or POM0 which is identical in nature

(zerohedge)

 

Fed Repo Oversubscribed For Third Day But Total Drops As Funding Pressures Ease

There was some bad and some good news in today’s, 4th consecutive repo operation conducted by the NY Fed.

First, the bad news is the for a 3rd consecutive day, the total amount of securities submitted for “liquification” at the Fed was greater than the total size of the Fed’s $75 billion repo facility, meaning it was once again oversubscribed.

However, the good news is that whereas yesterday the total securities “parked” into the repo op was $83.875 billion, on Friday, the total dropped to just $75.55 billion, meaning the facility was oversubscribed by just $550 million, down sharply from Thursday’s $8.875 billion.

Some other observations: whereas yesterday the amount of MBS submitted into the repo was $26.15BN, today this number dropped to just $15.35 billion at a stop-out rate of 1.81%, down from 1.85% yesterday. This, however, was offset by an increase in Treasurys submitted, which rose from $56.325BN to $59.6BN at the same stop out rate of 1.80%.

The bottom line is that funding tensions are clearly easing, although pockets of illiquidity remain, which can also be observed by the repo rate which earlier today opened at 2.00% before dipping to 1.90%, which however was higher than Thursday’s close of 1.725%. A better picture was painted by the SOFR rate, which dropped from 2.55% on Thursday to just 1.95% today (and down from an all time high of 5.25% on Wednesday).

Is this to be expected? Why yes: as we noted yesterday, even Goldman now expects that the Fed will resume QE, pardon, POMO, or bond purchases in November, with Goldman expecting the Fed to start purchasing roughly $15bn/month rate of permanent OMOs, “enough to support trend growth of the balance sheet plus some additional padding over the first two years to increase the size of the balance sheet by $150bn, restoring the reserve buffer and eliminating the current need for temporary OMOs.” That strategy would result in balance sheet growth of roughly $180bn/year and net UST purchases by the Fed (the sum of the red and grey bars) of roughly $375bn/year over the next couple of years.

In other words, with just 3 days of turmoil in the repo market, in just two months traders will successfully push the Fed to restart QE (assuming Goldman is right).

* * *

So now what? “While next week’s dealer balance sheet data may help uncover what contributed to this week’s fund market meltdown, it may take a long time to complete the post-mortem,” Wrightson ICAP strategist Lou Crandall wrote today. It was known that the tax-date decline in the supply of reserves would “take us into entirely new territory,” but there’s nothing in the data that explains why “such an unbridgeable gap” between supply and demand for funds in the repo market opened up.

“The bottom line is that we still don’t know what turbo-charged the market’s funding problems on Monday.”

Which is an odd statement for the world’s largest interdealer broker, considering just a quick scan of fintwit will demonstrate that some of the loudest voices are absolutely confident they know everything that happened, and that there is no reason to be worried any more.

end

Then early this afternoon: extremely important

The Fed just announced a series of Repos next week each totalling $75 billion each plus a 14 day term Repo. The total amount of repos: 165 billion dollars. Obviously the plumbing has not been fixed, By late Oct or early Nov expect the Repos to be replaced by permanent POMO ( QE4)

zerohedge

 

Liquidity Scramble: Fed Announces Overnight Repos Every Day Next Week, Introduces Term Repos

Yesterday we reported that Goldman now expects the Fed to restart Permanent Open Market Operations, i.e., bond purchases, i.e., QE some time in November. For those who missed it, Goldman assumes a roughly $15bn/month rate of permanent OMOs, “enough to support trend growth of the balance sheet plus some additional padding over the first two years to increase the size of the balance sheet by $150bn”, in the process restoring the reserve buffer and eliminating the current need for temporary OMOs.

That strategy would result in balance sheet growth of roughly $180bn/yearand net UST purchases by the Fed (the sum of the red and grey bars) of roughly $375bn/year over the next couple of years.

However, assuming Goldman is correct, there would be a little over a month before such POMO returned to permanently increase the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, potentially resulting in a continued liquidity shortage for the next 6 or so weeks.

Which probably explains why moments ago, the Fed surprised market watchers who were expecting the Fed to continue conducting only overnight repos,but announcing that not only would it conduct overnight $75 Billion repos every day from Monday until Thursday, October 10, but it would also introduce 2 week term repos with a total size of “at least $30 billion” for the first time since the financial crisis.

This is what the NY Fed said moments ago in a statement regarding repurchase operations:

In accordance with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) directive issued September 18, 2019, the Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will conduct a series of overnight and term repurchase agreement (repo) operations to help maintain the federal funds rate within the target range.

The Desk will offer three 14-day term repo operations for an aggregate amount of at least $30 billion each, as indicated in the schedule below. The Desk also will offer daily overnight repo operations for an aggregate amount of at least $75 billion each, until Thursday, October 10, 2019. Awarded amounts may be less than the amount offered, depending on the total quantity of eligible propositions submitted. Securities eligible as collateral include Treasury, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities. Additional details about the operations will be released each afternoon for the following day’s operation(s).

The proposed schedule of upcoming overnight and term repos is as follows:

What are the implications from the above? There are several, and they are concerning.

First, by expanding the “plumbing” arsenal from just overnight repos to three “at least $30 billion” term repos for at least one week, the Fed is telegraphing that it was expecting the overnight repo oversubscription situation to continue indefinitely, which in turn suggests that the NY Fed is worried the dollar funding shortage may continue, and as such it is expanding its toolbox to release up to at least $90 billion in additional liquidity, which together with the $75 billion in rolled overnight repo, would unlock as much as $165 billion in additional liquidity at the end of next week.

As a reminder, Goldman calculated that the Fed’s restart of POMO would increase the size of the Fed’s balance sheet by $150 billion, which is almost in line with the $165 billion in liquidity that the Fed will unlock in the form of “sterilized” repo operations. In other words, the Fed just confirmed that the reserve shortfall is likely at least $165 billion, and in doing so, it also indicated that a long-term solution will need to be reached, one which almost certainly will validate the prediction that QE/POMO is coming in November.

Second, as noted earlier, whereas overnight repo rates have stabilized, term repo rates remain elevated, especially those terms that capture either quarter or year-end, times when the US financial system traditionally suffers from a material liquidity shortfall: “The term market is still quite choppy,” confirmed Subadra Rajappa, head of rate strategy at Societe Generale in New York. As Bloomberg further adds, for the 10-year note futures contract versus the cheapest-to-deliver Treasury security to Dec. 31, the basis Friday implied a term repo rate of about 2.15%While that’s down from about 2.40% late Thursday, it remains above the Fed’s target range for its benchmark rate, and is also above today’s G/C overnight repo rate of 1.90%, with Alex Li, head of U.S. rates strategy at Credit Agricole, noting that elevated term rates are a problem because of the quantity of capital at risk.

Third, the reason why the Fed was likely forced to launch term repo, is because while investors have called for measures that will permanently boost reserves, such as POMO/QE, the Fed has so far refrained from embarking on a longer-term solution to ease the funding stress, writes Bloomberg’s Elizabeth Stanton. Specifically, Chair Powell said after Wednesday’s policy decision that he didn’t see “any implications for the broader economy” from the repo crunch, which prompted traders to exit long basis trades – long positions in Treasuries hedged with shorts in futures – which normally perform well when the Fed is cutting rates.“Futures outperformed cash amid the spike in repo and in the wake of an FOMC that could have done more to instill confidence in its attention to the issue,” Credit Suisse strategist Jonathan Cohn said. “The move flushed out significant long basis positioning.”

In short, despite the generous use of the $75 billion overnight repo, it wasn’t enough, and STIR and repo traders were spooked enough to force the Fed to engage in yet another form of liquidity injection, in the form of term repos.

If and when that too is insufficient, the Fed will have just two options: pursue a standing repo facility, which it is already doing to an extent with term repos, and eventually launch outright POMO (i.e. QE), to boost the level of reserves in the system, as it is now obvious that $1.3 trillion in “excess” reserves is nowhere near enough for the US financial system, which needs at least another $400 billion in reserves – as shown in the chart below – to see the FF-IOER spread stabilize.

What does this means from a practical standpoint? The panic in repo will almost certainly fade at least in the near term, however, look for elevated term repo rates, since they will all fall beyond the quarter end period when repo rates tend to soar as banks withdraw liquidity in order to “window dress” their balance sheets. And certainly look for a surge in term repos that capture year end, which as a reminder, saw last year’s repo rate explode to above 4%.

 

NY Fed Trading Floor

One final practical implication: since the market is now convinced it urgently needs the Fed to restart POMOs, expect another “near-death” event for the repo market some time in October/early November, which will be the catalyst forcing the John Williams Fed to move beyond mere repos and activate POMOs as the liquidity-injecting operation of choice.

And with that, QE4 will have arrived.

end

Here is the real story on the Fed dissents.  Clearly Trump would like to fire Powell and bring on a Bullard Fed

(zerohedge)

Divided Fed Exposed: Bullard Fears Recession, Rosengren Sees Bubbles & Too Much Leverage

Never has The Fed been more diametrically split than in the latest meeting, as highlighted by both the three dissents (2 hawkish and 1 dovish) as well as the three clear cohorts as indicated by the dot plot.

  1. Pre-emptive accommodation is not needed; we’ve already done too much
  2. We’ve delivered the necessary amount of pre-emptive accommodation for now
  3. More pre-emptive accommodation is needed

However, this morning we get clarity of the competing views as Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and St.Louis Fed President Bullard (two of the three dissenters) lay out there reasons… and they could not be more different.

Jim Bullard – a well-known dove – dissented because he wanted a 50bps rate cut, fearing recessionary forces are growing. Here’s what he sees:

I dissented with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision announced on Sept. 18, 2019, to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1.75%-2.00%. In my view, lowering the target range by 50 basis points to 1.50%-1.75% would have been a more appropriate action. The following considerations factored into my decision.

First, there are signs that U.S. economic growth is expected to slow in the near horizon. Trade policy uncertainty remains elevated, U.S. manufacturing already appears in recession, and many estimates of recession probabilities have risen from low to moderate levels. Moreover, the yield curve is inverted, and our policy rate remains above government bond yields for nearly every country in the G-7.

Second, core and headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation measures continue to run some 40 to 60 basis points, respectively, below the FOMC’s 2% inflation target. Market-based measures of inflation expectations continue to indicate expected longer-term inflation rates substantially below the Committee’s target. This is occurring despite the 25 basis point cut in July and the 25 basis point cut that was expected for the September meeting. While the unemployment rate is low by historical standards, there is little evidence that low unemployment poses a significant inflation risk in the current environment.

In light of these developments, I believe that lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at this time would provide insurance against further declines in expected inflation and a slowing economy subject to elevated downside risks. It is prudent risk management, in my view, to cut the policy rate aggressively now and then later increase it should the downside risks not materialize. At the same time, a 50 basis point cut at this time would help promote a more rapid return of inflation and inflation expectations to target.

Although I disagreed with the Committee’s decision to lower its target range by only 25 basis points, I remain confident that the Committee will continue to monitor economic developments and respond accordingly as economic circumstances dictate. I look forward to working with my colleagues to fulfill the FOMC’s mandates.

Eric Rosengren, on the other hand, sees costs in what The Fed is doing and fears the consequences in asset prices:

The stance of monetary policy is accommodative. Additional monetary stimulus is not needed for an economy where labor markets are already tight, and risks further inflating the prices of risky assets  and encouraging households and firms to take on too much leverage. While risks clearly exist related  to trade and geopolitical concerns, lowering rates to address uncertainty is not costless.

The following four charts reflect the key data on which I base this view, with each chart’s title  summarizing a key point. Also, I will describe my views in more detail in a speech taking place today at 11:20 a.m., entitled Assessing Economic Conditions and Risks to Financial Stability.

(1) Labor markets are already tight

(2) Current monetary policy is accommodative

(3) The federal funds target rate is below the inflation target

(4) Low interest rates are encouraging more leverage in underwritten riskier debt transactions

So it is pretty clear who President Trump will prefer.

end
This is an accident waiting to happen.  This company,We Work, is continually in the red and has no hope of turning a profit. It  IPO has been stalled because of faulty valuation. It eventual bankruptcy will unleash a system risk to the economy
(zerohedge)

WeWork Business Model Is Systemic Risk To Economy, Fed’s Rosengren Warns

In a stunning rebuke, echoing very closely our own concerns, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren has – without naming-names – called out the WeWork business model as being a systemic risk to the US economy.

Two weeks ago we asked (rhetorically)…

zerohedge@zerohedge

What happens to the US CRE market when We files for bankruptcy

50 people are talking about this

Here is the problem as we laid it out:

While the collapse and/or bankruptcy of WeWork would hardly lead to a personal finance disaster – SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son is already Japan’s richest man and with a net worth of over $20 billion can easily stomach losing billions on WeWork (and Uber) – it would send shockwaves across US commercial real estate, as the company is already the single biggest tenant in New York City, as well as Chicago, Denver and central London.

In fact, with over $47 billion in lease liabilities, WeWork is already one of the world’s largest lessees, trailing only oil exploration giants Petrobras and Sinpec, an astonishing feat for the flexible office space provider “which was founded less than a decade ago, bleeds cash, and doesn’t plan to become profitable any time soon.”

As Bloomberg recently noted, “anyone weighing whether to buy shares in WeWork’s IPO cannot ignore the fact that the company will have to find $47 billion from somewhere in coming years to meet its contractual obligations – including about $10 billion in just the next five years. Right now, its own very negative cash flows won’t cut it.”

And now, it appears, Eric Rosengren has realized just how serious this leveraged debacle has become. In a speech delivered to New York University today – following his already hawkish tone from this morning by which he highlighted The Fed’s easy money policy has enabled record leverage – the Boston Fed head seems to have seen the light, fearing financial instability from WeWork and its ilk…

Mr. Rosengren noted the risks posed by commercial real estate, which have long been a concern of his, as a possible vector to amplify trouble.

Without naming any firms, Mr. Rosengren noted the particular concerns posed by co-working companies. He made this comment as the parent of office-sharing firm WeWork postponed its initial public offering amid investor doubts about its valuation and concerns about its corporate governance.

Office-sharing firms are particularly exposed to risks should the economy run into trouble, and could wound landlords in the process, Mr. Rosengren said.

“In a downturn the co-working company would be exposed to the loss of tenant income, which puts both them and the property owner at risk if they cannot make lease payments to the owner of the building,” he said.

“I am concerned that commercial real estate losses will be larger in the next downturn because of this growing feature of the real estate market, which could ultimately make runs and vacancies more likely due to this new leasing model,” Mr. Rosengren said.

“The fact that the shared office model relies on small-company tenants with short-term leases, combined with the potential lack of recourse for the property owner, is potentially problematic in a recession. This also raises the issue of whether bank loans to property owners in cities with major penetration by co-working models could experience a higher incidence of default and greater loss-given-defaults than we have seen historically.”

Of course, he is right. As we concluded more explicitly, in a bankruptcy, all those obligations would be frozen and squeezed among all the other pre-petition claims, which of course means that the commercial real estate market of cities where WeWork is especially active – like New York and London (and Rosengren’s Boston) – would suddenly find itself paralyzed, as a deflationary tsunami is unleashed among one of the strongest performing markets since the financial crisis.

end
The mess in Illinois:  now bankrupt cities are forced to cut services to fund pensions.  Eventually they will have to cut their entire police force to pay these pensions. East St Louis has only two years of cash left
(Mish Shedlock)

Bankrupt Illinois Cities Forced To Cut Services To Fund Pensions

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Multiple cities in Illinois are forced to cut police, fire departments and other city services to fund pension plans.

Third Domino

Illinois does not allow cities to file for bankruptcy but that is the best word to describe many of them. East St. Louis is the latest.

What Follows is a Guest Post from Wirepoints

My comments at the end.

Wirepoint reports Third domino falls: Illinois Comptroller set to confiscate East St. Louis revenues to pay for city’s firefighter pensions.

On Tuesday, the East St. Louis’ firefighter pension fund demanded that Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza intercept more than $2.2 million of East St. Louis city revenues so they could be diverted to the pension fund.

The fund trustees said the city shorted firefighter pensions by $880,000 in 2017 and another $1.3 million in 2018. Under a 2011 pension law, the state comptroller gained the powers to intercept city revenues on behalf of police and fire pension funds shorted by their municipalities.

Harvey was the first municipality to run afoul of the intercept law. North Chicago, a Chicago suburb of 30,000, was the second. Now it’s East St. Louis’ turn.

Back when Harvey was first intercepted last year, Wirepoints reported that comptroller confiscations could wreak havoc on hundreds of Illinois communities, potentially creating a domino effect. Hundreds of Illinois’ 650 pension funds have not received their statutorily required contributions from their respective cities in recent years, meaning the intercept law could go into wide usage under a broader crisis scenario. In the most recent analysis of Illinois Department of Revenue data, nearly half of the 650 funds were not properly funded in 2017 (see details below).

That domino effect could be exacerbated given that municipalities have virtually no control over their own pension funds. State law sets all the rules and pensions are protected by the Illinois Constitution, meaning that in a market downturn, the pension funds may have little choice but to demand more intercepts.

The East St. Louis firefighter fund has certified to the comptroller that the municipality didn’t fully pay its required contributions to the pension fund in 2017 and 2018. Now the Comptroller has 60 days to decide whether that’s correct. After that, it can begin confiscating East St. Louis revenues. The request by the lawyers of the firefighter fund can be found here.

The intercept law was first utilized in 2018, when Harvey, Illinois, revenues were garnished to pay the city’s police and firefighter pension funds.

That intercept of nearly $3.3 million led to the layoff of 40 public safety workers so the city could avoid insolvency. The city found it couldn’t simultaneously pay for both current workers and pensioners. The city and the pension plans eventually reached a deal that relieved some of the pressure on the city.

The East St. Louis intercept

East St. Louis is no stranger to fiscal crises, but the intercept is bound to cause the city a new level of pain. The Comptroller can confiscate revenues that come from the state and an overwhelming share of the city’s general budget comes from the state.

If the full $2.2 million is intercepted, the city would end up losing the equivalent of 10 percent of its budget (the city’s 2018 general budget equaled $18 million). And what’s worse, the city’s 2019 budget is already facing millions in deficits.

East St. Louis’ fire and police pensions are some of the worst funded in the state, with funded ratios of just 31% and 9%, respectively. In total, the city has a shortfall of more than $104 million in its public safety pension plans, according to Illinois’ Department of Insurance. That’s more than $9,700 per household in a community where 43 percent of people live below the poverty line.

And with just $6.1 million in assets and annual payouts to beneficiaries totaling $3.7 million, the city’s fire fund has the equivalent of only two years of payouts in its accounts today.

Another day, another domino 

Cities like Harvey, North Chicago and now East St. Louis are the vanguard of a much wider problem faced by municipalities across Illinois.

The most recent numbers show that 301 of Illinois’ 651 public safety pension funds, or 46 percent, were shorted their full payments in 2017, according to the actuarial standards published by the Illinois Department of Insurance.

Illinois cities – from Kankakee to Danville to Alton – need pension fixes before costs bankrupt them. And while state politicians have effectively quashed any chance for reforms now, that shouldn’t stop city officials from demanding real changes.

Municipal leaders across Illinois need to demand the following if they want their cities to survive Illinois’ collective crisis:

  1. An amendment to the constitution’s pension protection clause so pensions can be reformed and workers’ retirement security saved;
  2. The ability to convert pensions to defined contribution plans for workers going forward;
  3. A freeze on retirees’ cost-of-living adjustments (while protecting small pensioners) until pension plans return to health;
  4. Public sector collective bargaining reforms so officials can hold the line on new labor contracts, and;
  5. And the possibility of a fresh start through the ability to invoke municipal bankruptcy.

The troubles brewing in Illinois are all happening during one of the longest economic expansions ever. When the economy and the stock markets inevitably correct, things will only get worse.

Without the above reforms, East St. Louis, North Chicago and Harvey might only be the first in a long list of collapsing cities.

Mish Comments

What Illinois needs most is point 5, bankruptcy reform.

Points 1-4 can only happen if 5 is addressed. There will be no bargaining until unions face the threat of court bankruptcy decisions.

Pet Peeve

Under current law, states have the right to allow bankruptcies or not, but once they do, bankruptcies proceed through Federal, not state, bankruptcy courts.

One of my major pet peeves with the Trump administration is that it failed to reform bankruptcy laws at the national level.

Trump had two years to address this issue and did nothing. Why Rand Paul failed to introduce legislation is also a mystery.

Corrupt Illinois, in deference to public unions, refuses to act.

The citizens of East St. Louis, North Chicago, Harvey, Danville, Rockford etc are at the mercy of state funding laws even to the point of the state confiscating city funds needed to provide adequate police and fire protection for cities.

Two Years and Counting

Eventually, an Illinois city will be forced to fire its entire police or firefighter force to fund pensions.

We don’t have long to wait.

East St. Louis has only two year’s cash left in which to pay firefighters.

I expect a case will then make it to the Supreme Court and hopefully we will have a national resolution.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

As promised to you, this is a joke.  The Democrats are going nuts on this.  It seems that Trump wants more information from the Ukraine on the Joe Biden/Hunter Biden theft of billions of dollars from the Ukraine

(zerohedge)

Trump Whistleblower Drama Puts Biden In The Hot Seat Over Ukraine

For days we’ve been treated to MSM insinuations that President Trump may have betrayed the United States after a whistleblower lodged an ‘urgent’ complaint about something Trump promised another world leader – the details of which the White House has refused to share.

Then, we learned it was a phone call.

Then, we learned it was several phone calls.

Now, we learn it wasn’t Russia or North Korea – it was Ukraine!

Here’s the scandal; It appears that Trump, may have made promises to newly minted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – very likely involving an effort to convince Ukraine to reopen its investigation into Joe Biden and his son Hunter, after Biden strongarmed Ukraine’s prior government into firing its top prosecutor – something Trump and his attorney Rudy Giuliani have pursued for months. There are also unsupported rumors that Trump threatened to withhold $250 million in aid to help Ukraine fight Russian-backed separatists.

And while the MSM and Congressional Democrats are starting to focus on the sitting US president having a political opponent investigated, The New York Times admits that nothing Trump did would have been illegal, as “while Mr. Trump may have discussed intelligence activities with the foreign leader, he enjoys broad power as president to declassify intelligence secrets, order the intelligence community to act and otherwise direct the conduct of foreign policy as he sees fit.”

Moreover, here’s why Trump and Giuliani are going to dig their heels in; last year Biden openly bragged about threatening to hurl Ukraine into bankruptcy as Vice President if they didn’t fire their top prosecutor, Viktor Shokin – who was leading a wide-ranging corruption investigation into a natural gas firm whose board  Hunter Biden sat on. 

In his own words, with video cameras rolling, Biden described how he threatened Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in March 2016 that the Obama administration would pull $1 billion in U.S. loan guarantees, sending the former Soviet republic toward insolvency, if it didn’t immediately fire Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin. –The Hill

“I said, ‘You’re not getting the billion.’ I’m going to be leaving here in, I think it was about six hours. I looked at them and said: ‘I’m leaving in six hours. If the prosecutor is not fired, you’re not getting the money,’” bragged Biden, recalling the conversation with Poroshenko.

Well, son of a bitch, he got fired. And they put in place someone who was solid at the time,” Biden said at the Council on Foreign Relations event – while insisting that former president Obama was complicit in the threat.

In short, there’s both smoke and fire here – and what’s left of Biden’s 2020 bid for president may be the largest casualty of the entire whistleblower scandal.

And by the transitive properties of the Obama administration ‘vetting’ Trump by sending spies into his campaign, Trump can simply say he was protecting America from someone who may have used his position of power to directly benefit his own family at the expense of justice. 

Congressional Democrats, meanwhile,are acting as if they’ve found the holy grail of taking Trump down. On Thursday, the House Intelligence Committee chaired by Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) interviewed inspector general Michael Atkinson, with whom the whistleblower lodged their complaint – however despite three hours of testimony, he repeatedly declined to discuss the content of the complaint

Following the session, Schiff gave an angry speech – demanding that acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire share the complaint, and calling the decision to withhold it “unprecedented.”

“We cannot get an answer to the question about whether the White House is also involved in preventing this information from coming to Congress,” said Schiff, adding “We’re determined to do everything we can to determine what this urgent concern is to make sure that the national security is protected.”

According to Schiff, someone “is trying to manipulate the system to keep information about an urgent matter from the Congress … There certainly are a lot of indications that it was someone at a higher pay grade than the director of national intelligence,” according to the Washington Post.

Manu Raju

@mkraju

Just asked Schiff why IG couldn’t talk today about substance of whistleblower complaint or WH involvement, and he said DNI and DOJ won’t let the IG talk about it. “This shows someone is trying to manipulate the system to keep information about an urgent matter from the Congress.”

Embedded video

On thursday, Trump denied doing anything improper – tweeting “Virtually anytime I speak on the phone to a foreign leader, I understand that there may be many people listening from various U.S. agencies, not to mention those from the other country itself.

“Knowing all of this, is anybody dumb enough to believe that I would say something inappropriate with a foreign leader while on such a potentially ‘heavily populated’ call.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Another Fake News story out there – It never ends! Virtually anytime I speak on the phone to a foreign leader, I understand that there may be many people listening from various U.S. agencies, not to mention those from the other country itself. No problem!

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….Knowing all of this, is anybody dumb enough to believe that I would say something inappropriate with a foreign leader while on such a potentially “heavily populated” call. I would only do what is right anyway, and only do good for the USA!

Giuliani, meanwhile, went on CNN with Chris Cuomo Thursday to defend his discussions with Ukraine about investigating alleged election interference in the 2016 election to the benefit of Hillary Clinton conducted by Ukraine’s previous government. According to Giuliani, Biden’s dealings in Ukraine were ‘tangential’ to the 2016 election interference question – in which a Ukrainian court ruled that government officials meddled for Hillary in 2016 by releasing details of Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort’s ‘Black Book’ to Clinton campaign staffer Alexandra Chalupa.

Cuomo Prime Time

@CuomoPrimeTime

CNN’s @ChrisCuomo: “Did you ask Ukraine to look into Joe Biden?”@RudyGiuliani: “Of course I did”

President Trump’s attorney says he had spoken with a Ukrainian official about Joe Biden’s possible role in that government’s dismissal of a prosecutor who investigated Biden’s son.

Embedded video

And so – what the MSM doesn’t appear to understand is that President Trump asking Ukraine to investigate Biden over something with legitimate underpinnings.

Which – of course, may lead to the Bidens’ adventures in China, which Giuliani referred to in his CNN interview. And just like his Ukraine scandal, it involves actions which may have helped his son Hunter – who was making hand over fist in both countries.

 

Journalist Peter Schweizer, the author of Clinton Cash and now Secret Empires discovered that in 2013, then-Vice President Biden and his son Hunter flew together to China on Air Force Two – and two weeks later, Hunter’s firm inked a private equity deal for $1 billion with a subsidiary of the Chinese government’s Bank of China, which expanded to $1.5 billion

Meanwhile, speculation is rampant over what this hornet’s nest means for all involved…

Dan Bongino

@dbongino

The latest intell hit on Trump tells me that the deep-state swamp rats are in a panic over the Ukrainian/Obama admin collusion about to be outed in the IG report. They’re also freaked out over Biden’s shady Ukrainian deals with his kid.

“As the 2020 election draws closer, President Trump and his personal attorney appear to have increased pressure on the Ukrainian government and its justice system in service of President Trump’s reelection campaign, and the White House and the State Department may be abetting this scheme,” wrote the chairman of the House Intelligence, Foreign Affairs and Oversight committees wrote in a letter, citing media reports over the alleged threat to withhold $250 million.

House Democrats are also looking into whether Giuliani flew to Ukraine to ‘encourage’ them to investigate Hunter Biden and his involvement with Burisma.

end

same story as above

(zerohedge)

A Smug Trump Derides MSM Over Biden-Ukraine Whistleblower Story: ‘You’re Gonna Look Really Bad When It Falls’  

A very smug President Trump brushed aside questions over a whistleblower complaint which reportedly involves promises made to Ukraine in exchange for an investigation into former Vice President Joe Biden.

Calling the story “ridiculous” and describing the whistleblower as partisan, Trump said that it “doesn’t matter what I discussed,” adding “but I’ll tell you this, somebody ought to look into Joe Biden’s statement where He talked about billions of dollars that he’s not giving to a certain country unless a certain prosecutor is taken off the case. So, somebody ought to look into that and you wouldn’t because he’s a Democrat. And the fake news doesn’t look into things like that, it’s a disgrace.”

Trump was of course referring to a 2018 incident where Biden openly bragged about strongarming Ukraine into firing their top prosecutor, who was leading a wide-ranging corruption investigation into a natural gas firm whose board Hunter Biden sat on.

Continuing on, Trump told reporters: “It was a totally appropriate conversation – it was actually a beautiful conversation.” 

Trump then warned the press they’re barking up the wrong tree after a “very bad week” in which the New York Times was forced to issue a major correction to an article about alleged sexual misconduct by Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, after the two journalists who wrote it failed to include evidence from their own anti-Kavanaugh book which significantly undercut their argument. 

“You know the press has had a very bad week with Justice Kavanaugh and all those ridiculous charges, and all of the mistakes made at the New York Times and other places,” said Trum, adding: “You’ve had a very bad week, and this will be better than all of ’em, this is another one. So keep playing it out because you’re gonna look really bad when it falls, and I guess I’m about 22 and 0 and I’ll keep it that way.

“…keep asking questions and building it up as big as possible so you can have a bigger downfall.”

Watch:

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

The King Report September 20, 2019 Issue 6096                                                                                Independent View of the News

On Thursday, the Street submitted $83.875B of securities to the NY Fed for its $75B repo operation.

ESZs rallied 24 handles from the European open to 9:10 ET because repo rates receded.  The Overnight Funding Rate fell to 2.18% from 2.25%.  SOFR (Secured O/N Funding Rate) fell to 2.55% from 5.25%.  BGCR (Broad General Collateral Rate) fell to 2.50% from 5.25%.

Traders poured into ESZs and stocks on the NYSE open.  ESZs hit 3020.00 seven minutes after the open, a 29-handle rally from its session low one minute before the European open.  The rally baby-stepped marginally higher until six minutes after the first hour of NYSE trading ended.

With the S&P 500 Index only 4 handles from an all-time high by midday, the desire to push the index to a new high intensified – and there’s no better time than expiry week to manipulate stocks higher!  However, traders needed a respite after the 33 handle ESZ rally from its session low.

The midday retreat turned into a broad decline on this tweet from China mouthpiece @HuXijin_GT:

Both China and the US should cherish the current talks. Many US officials easily misread China’s goodwill, think it shows Beijing’s weakness. China doesn’t like talking tough before the negotiations, but I know China is not as anxious to reach a deal as the US side thought

SCMP: Donald Trump won round one of the trade war. In round two, China has the upper hand

The US may have succeeded in forcing a relocation of supply chains from China, but now that the damage has been done, the Chinese are in no hurry to clinch a deal. Not so for Trump, who has an election to win amid signs of a slowing US economy…

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027884/donald-trump-won-round-one-trade-war-round-two-china-has-upper-hand

Andy Xie: US-China trade war: both sides have reason to compromise, but their differences remain intractable      https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027732/us-china-trade-war-both-sides-have-reason-compromise-their

Trump’s adviser on China Michael Pillsbury says president ready to escalate trade war if deal not agreed soon – Tariffs on Chinese goods ‘could go to 50 per cent or 100 per cent’…

   But leader is not pursuing ‘cold war 2.0’, and US-China decoupling would be a ‘consequence of no agreement’ by Beijing, he says…

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3028164/donald-trumps-adviser-china-michael-pillsbury-says-president

China’s Mighty Trade Engine Is Stalling as Negotiators Seek Deal

  • Front-loading won’t change downbeat outlook: Oxford Economics
  • Bloomberg survey sees exports shrinking 0.8% in 1Q 2020

Export Delivery Value… is the most worrying of the indicators, showing a steep decline [to -4.3 from teenage levels a year ago] in Chinese products manufactured but not yet shipped…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-19/china-s-mighty-trade-engine-is-stalling-as-negotiators-seek-deal

The problem for the Fed and the market is these daily repo schemes cannot persist indefinitely.  Wall Street needs to unload it merchandise soon or the Fed will have to do a huge coupon pass.  This would be QE Lite.  Perhaps this is what Powell was alluding to on Wednesday.

Ex-Dallas Fed analyst @DiMartinoBooth: Powell doesn’t want QE. 90% of Americans would agree with what I’m about to say. Is it better to bail out Goldman Sachs again or we the peopleQE introduces this dynamic.  QE is technically bailing out the banking system.”

@TaviCosta: 30-year yield vs. core CPI at its lowest level since 1980s[1979 to 1981] 10-year real yield? Same.  Plunging as they did in mid & late 70s!  LT yields near record lows. Inflation at a decade high. Central banks easing massively. Risk parity at risk? All bullish for gold.  [Chart at link]

https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1174761582707933184

@benbreitholtz: U.S. hard economic data has followed surprises higher, breaking above one-year averages for first time since Oct 2018. Residential housing leading the charge.  [Chart at link]

https://twitter.com/benbreitholtz/status/1174689727989067776

The above 2 items are reasons for the September bond decline and brokers’ suffocating debt holdings.

Today is option and futures’ expiration.  Normally stocks rally on the open due to replacement buying of stocks from holders of expiring equity futures contracts.  Traders will remain concerned about the repo market.  As we explained above, barring a broad debt rally, the Fed will soon have to do something more permanent to alleviate the funding pressure from an overloaded (with debt) Wall Street.

The monstrous ESZ rally from the European open until the European close reversed into a large decline that closed US stocks near the lows of Thursday’s session.  This is a troubling technical development.

Also, astute traders are concerned that the early upside breakout from the S&P 500 Index’s Inside Day on Wednesday was a false breakout.

The S&P 500 Index low of 3003.16 must hold or a breach of 3000 is likely.  This could unleash ‘gamma to death’ on the downside as SPY puts go into the money, squeezing put shorts and long call holders.

ESZs are vacillating in a small range as we write, an anomaly prior to expiry.  Traders are apprehensive.

The S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 2952; 100-day MA: 2920; 150-day MA: 2893; 200-day MA: 2824

The DJIA 50-day MA: 26,622; 100-day MA: 26,351; 150-day MA: 26,245; 200-day MA: 25,746

S&P 500 Index support: 3000, 2985-90, 2978, 2972, 2955-60, 2940-45, 2930, 2922, 2914, 2900, 2880

Resistance: 3017-22, 3027, 3040, 3050

Expected economic data: NY Fed Prez Williams 8:15 ET; Boston Fed Prez and hawk Rosengren 11:20 ET; Dallas Fed Prez Kaplan 13:00 ET

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames

Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 2502.93 triggers a sell signal

Weekly: Trender is positive;MACD is negative – a close below 2816.78 triggers a sell signal

Daily: Trender andMACD are positive -a close below 2949.03 triggers a sell signal

Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 2993.18 triggers a sell signal

American Airlines mechanic accused of sabotaging plane denied bail over possible terrorist ties

U.S. Magistrate Judge Chris McAliley ordered Abdul-Majeed Marouf Ahmed Alani held during a Miami court hearing. He is charged with willfully damaging, destroying or disabling an aircraft,

   Prosecutors presented evidence that Alani — a naturalized American citizen from Iraq — has a brother with possible ties to ISIS and a history of statements wishing harm to non-Muslims…

https://www.foxnews.com/us/american-airlines-mechanic-accused-of-sabotaging-plane-denied-bail-over-possible-terrorist-ties

New FOIA Docs Show Rosenstein Offered Reporters to be ‘Anonymous’ Source Shortly before He Appointed Robert Mueller – In 2017, Rod Rosenstein issued a statement decrying leaks & saying people should be skeptical of stories attributed to anonymous officials…   https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/09/new-foia-docs-show-rosenstein-offering-reporters-to-be-anonymous-source-shortly-before-he-appointed-robert-mueller/

Comey Engineered the Ambush of Michael Flynn – “We just decided, you know, screw it,” Comey said of the decision to approach Flynn about an interview without White House lawyer

   The evidence is compelling that both Comey and McCabe ambushed Flynn… attempting to trap him into saying something incriminating.  The new book by Comey’s lackey, Josh Campbell, simply confirms the very scheme that Comey bragged about in a public forum… The book admits Comey broke protocols and FBI guidelines.  He did not seek approval from the White House Counsel.  It’s the kind of tactic that only the unprincipled Comey would employ…

https://thegreggjarrett.com/comey-engineered-ambush-michael-flynn/

‘Feel free to leak this’: Inside the Pelosi-Nadler impeachment schism

In a closed-door meeting last week, Speaker Nancy Pelosi stunned lawmakers and aides with a swipe at Democratic staff on the House Judiciary Committee.

    Pelosi criticized the panel’s handling of impeachment in harsh terms, complaining committee aides have advanced the push for ousting President Donald Trump far beyond where the House Democratic Caucus stands. Democrats simply don’t have the votes on the floor to impeach Trump, Pelosi said.  “And you can feel free to leak this,”… Several Democrats have speculated that Nadler’s hard line on impeachment is partly driven by concerns with his political standing on the left in his New York City district as he faces his toughest primary challenge in decades…

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/18/pelosi-nadler-schism-impeachment-1501755

Charlie Hurt: Can you imagine the media coverage of Ed Buck’s arrest if he were a Republican?

Ed Buck was arrested Tuesday and charged with operating a drug house after a third man reportedly suffered an overdose inside his West Hollywood home last week — and survived. Two other men overdosed and died at his home in July 2017 and January 2018, respectively

    Buck contributed more than $500,000 to Democratic groups, including $1,500 to the Obama campaign and $2,950 to the Hillary Clinton campaign…

https://www.foxnews.com/media/charlie-hurt-ed-buck-arrest-media-coverage

Chicago Tribune’s top columnist John Kass: The latest smear against Justice Brett Kavanaugh part of left’s scorched-earth strategy

     The left lost control of the Supreme Court through the 2016 election of President Donald Trump, who has nominated two conservative justices and may nominate another if he’s reelected in 2020. Since 2016, the left has waged cultural war, delegitimizing all institutions that may stand in their way…

    What is dangerous is that what is burned in their culture war are American institutions, and the scorched earth is the American republic… The left’s end game is the delegitimization of the Supreme Court, if justices don’t give them the political outcomes they can’t achieve through legislation…

https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/john-kass/ct-brett-kavanaugh-supreme-court-abortion-kass-20190918-ot2ho5wozne6ra62p25hywzvgi-story.html

Chgo Chaos: 2 Gang Members Allegedly Executed 9-Yr-Old Boy as Retribution against His Father 

https://hannity.com/media-room/chicago-chaos-2-gang-members-allegedly-executed-9-year-old-boy-as-retribution-against-his-father/

Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter:

(courtesy Greg Hunter)

Iran Conflict or More Tariffs, Russia Hoaxsters Prosecuted, Fed Lost Control

By Greg Hunter On September 20, 2019

Is America going to have a conflict with Iran? It looks like it is not. Trump is going to increase the already stiff tariffs on that Persian Gulf nation. One sure sign that is true is former National Security Advisor John Bolton is reportedly upset the U.S. will not be bombing Iran over the drone attack on Saudi Arabia oil installations.

Will the Russian collusion hoaxsters, such as James Comey and Andrew McCabe, ever be prosecuted in the seditious acts they committed on President Trump? More reports are coming out from DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz that are making it increasingly hard to ignore the malfeasance of many top government officials in making up a totally fake story to try to remove President Trump from office. It did not work.

Is the economy doing great or is it teetering on the edge of big trouble? If you listen to the Fed this week, it looks like trouble is coming.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about the top stories of the week in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

You Tube (YT) did it again!! YT demonetized this video so it must be something they don’t want you to hear. Enjoy!!

-END-

Well that is all for today

I will see you Monday night.

 

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