SEPT 23//SILVER HAS A STELLAR DAY UP 80 CENTS TO $18.63///GOLD TAGS ALONG UP $16.25//HUGE PAPER ADDITION OF 10.55 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD///NONE ADDED FOR SILVER;S SLV//THE REPO MESS IS NOW EXPLAINED FULLY IN OUR USA SECTION: A MUST READ…//TONIGHT WE SIT SHIVA FOR THOMAS COOK AS BANKS PULLED THE PLUG: AGAIN LACK OF LIQUIDITY//MEXICO HAS A HUGE DOWNFALL IN CAR EXPORTS//SOUTH KOREA HAS A HUGE DOWNFALL IN EXPORTS AS GLOBAL GROWTH IS STYMIED/ JOE BIDEN -HUNTER BIDEN WHISTLE BLOWER MESS//KING REPORT//../

GOLD::$1523.85 UP $16.25 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$18.63 UP 80 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1522.10

 

silver:  $18.64

Definition of Rico

RICO is typically used to indict mobsters – which makes its use against employees of the largest bank in America a very disquieting event. But even more disquieting is that two trial lawyers compared JPMorgan Chase to the Gambino crime family five long years ago and recommended in their 2016 book that the bank’s officers be prosecuted under the RICO statute.” … Pam Martens and Russ Martens

Ted Butler….

“If JPMorgan were ever found to be guilty of what I know it to be guilty of, the repercussions and reparations (including punitive damages) could completely overwhelm the bank’s ability to survive. For instance, every miner who produced silver for the past decade would have a claim against JPMorgan, as would just about every silver investor of every stripe. Therefore, some alternative resolution must be devised that doesn’t fully acknowledge all that JPMorgan had done wrong for more than a decade.” … Ted Butler

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,507.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/20/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 09/24/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 2 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 2 2
MONTH TO DATE: 1,743

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT CONTRACT: 2 NOTICE(S) FOR 200 OZ (0.00622 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1743 NOTICES FOR 174,300 OZ  (5.4214 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR SEPT

 

 

36 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 180,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 8643 for   43,215,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 9940 DOWN 87 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 9802 DOWN 224

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A FAIR  SIZED 765 CONTRACTS FROM 211,198 UP TO 211,963 WITH THE 3 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR SEPT 0,; DEC  1050 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1050 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1050 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1050 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 5.25 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 3 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.300   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE

WE AGAIN HAD ATTEMPTED COVERING OF BANKER SHORTS  AT THE SILVER COMEX YESTERDAY BUT TO NO AVAIL

AS THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST IN BOTH EXCHANGES RISE BY A GOOD AMOUNT.

 

 

 

THE LIQUIDATION OF COMEX OI OF SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED AND WE WILL NOW COMMENCE WITH THE ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADERS GOLD OPEN INTEREST

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT:

26,625 CONTRACTS (FOR 15 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 26,625 CONTRACTS) OR 133.125 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1775 CONTRACTS OR 8.875 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  133.125 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 19.01% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1682.73   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 667, WITH THE 3 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1050 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG  SIZED: 1815 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1050 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 765  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH JUST A 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.83 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! (also strange, the final oi numbers in silver is higher than the preliminary numbers//go figure)

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.059 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 151% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 36 NOTICE(S) FOR 180,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.300 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 2884 CONTRACTS, TO 634,985 ACCOMPANYING THE  $8.60 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// FRIDAY// / THE TOTAL GOLD OPEN INTEREST IS CREEPING UP AND CLOSE TO THE RECORD OF 652,971 IN 2016.

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 9666 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  9666 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 634,985,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,550 CONTRACTS: 2884 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 9666 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 12,550 CONTRACTS OR 1,255,000 OZ OR 39.03 TONNES.  FRIDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $8.60 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT STRONG GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 39.03  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON AS THE COMEX GOLD VOLUME AND OPEN INTEREST ARE HUGE. THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE LONGS AND AS YOU CAN SEE, THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST IN BOTH EXCHANGES SKYROCKETED

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 108,254 CONTRACTS OR 10,825,400 oz OR 336.71 TONNES (15 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 7042 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 336.71 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 336.71/3550 x 100% TONNES =10.05% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4488.31  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2884 WITH THE STRONG  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK FRIDAY($8.60)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 9666 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 9666 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG  SIZED GAIN OF 12,550 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

9666 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2884 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 39.03 TONNES). ..AND THIS STRONG INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.60 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  2 notice(s) filed upon for 200 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $16.25 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..

A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.55 TONNES OF NON EXISTENT GOLD.

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY: 

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 765 CONTRACTS from 211,198 UP TO 211,963 AND CLOSER TO A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR SEPT. 0; FOR DEC  1050:  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1050 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 765  CONTRACTS TO THE 1050 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1815 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 9.075 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ// AND FINALLY SEPT: 43.300 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1050 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 27.37 POINTS OR 0.98%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 213.27 POINTS OR 0.81%   /The Nikkei closed UP 34.64 POINTS OR 0.16%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .32%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.1262 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1262 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1197 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

SOUTH KOREA

 

This is a huge Bellwether on global growth:  South Korea exports collapse 21%, it biggest drop in a decade

(zerohedge

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)China cancels the Montana and Nebraska trip saying that they did not want to interfere in USA politics.  The negotiations are back on but there is no hope of a deal.

(zerohedge)

ii)The Chinese government taps on the shoulder of Chinese firms to rein in global purchases.  They have now turned net seller for the first time in decades

(zerohedge)

iii)Michael Every is one smart cookie. Today he comments that it would be impossible for a deal to be struck with China as it will change its entire economic model. Michael also weighs in on the Iranian conflict
(Michael Every/Rabobank)

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

Our resident expert on Brexit affairs , Mish Shedlock states that we are now closer to a Brexit deal.  maybe we will not not have a hard Brexit but we may have a fair one.
(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

ii)Denmark/Jyske Bank/Danske Bank//

Jyske Bank has now set the bar by charging basically all of its customers a huge .75% for depositing their money in their bank.  HOwever large Danske Bank continues to charge its customers zero.  What gives? Depositors are starting to sniff that something is wrong here…and are turning to gold!!

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

iii)Oh OH!!  The CEO of Estonia’s branch of Danske bank has just mysteriously disappeared as the fraud scandal intensifies

(zerohedge)

iv)Germany

the engine for Europe is Germany and we are continually reporting bad numbers.  Today, it is the biggy, the PMI and the German mfg PMI plunges to a 7 year low

(zerohedge)

v)Bill Blain has an interesting read on the devastation in the aero space/holiday industry

(Bill Blain)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAN

Iran warns the USA that even limited strikes will lead to a world war. Salami, Major General of the Revolutionary Guard made that statement after the USA announced it was sending forces to Saudi Arabia

(zerohedge)

ii)Egypt

Egypt is rocked Friday by rights in Cairo, Alexandria and Suez demanding the ousting of Sisi

(zerohedge)

iii) Iran

Rouhani is set to meet Trump in NY as Trump lays out to the Assembly how the Iranians orchestrated the hit on Aramco.Should be interesting

(zerohedge)

iv)Iran

Iran frees the British flagged Stena Impero a day before the crucial UN summit

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

i)MEXICO

Mexico has a strong export car business.  We now witness a total collapse in Mexico’s exports to the tune of a huge 12.7% fall last month

(zerohedge)

ii)BIS

When these guys talk about the troubling effect on 17 trillion dollars worth of negative yielding debt you must take note.  They know that when most of the world goes into negative debt with the uSA closing in on zero zound all commodities including gold and silver go into backwardation and then the entire world’s finances blow up
(zerohedge)

iii)Thomas Cook/

Over the weekend there were reports that without a financing deal, the world’s oldest travel company,  Thomas Cook would go under
(COURTESY GLOBE AND MAIL/REUTERS/KATE HOLTON )
AND SPECIAL THANKS TO DON J FOR SENDING THIS TO US

iv)Thomas Cook//Monday morning..they go bust

Thomas Cook collapses after rescue talks fails and that sends 650,000 travelers stranded
(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

Conflicting stories sent oil higher and then lower.  First a Wall Street Journal report stated that it would take Saudi Arabia 8 moths to fix their hit on Aramco but that was refuted later and saying that they would be restored by the end of the month

 

(zerohedge)

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)The strange events that led to the removal of Nowak from the lBMA board.  It is not immediate.  It was 4 days after the fact

(Chris Powell/GATA)

ii)Chris Powell correctly states that gold/silver manipulation goes far beyond JPMorgan

(courtesy Silver Doctors/GATA)

iii)A terrific interview although short, Gold Money’s Alasdair Macleod reviews the evidence of strain in the entire ban

king system

(Kingworldnews/Alasdair  Macleod)

iv)The New Orleans conference will be extremely important for you to attend..as there is so much going on. The conference will explain everything in detail as to what is going on

(GATA/Chris Powell)

v)Martin Katusa tries to explain why negative rates are good for gold

(Martin Katusa)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)As promised, Trump did nothing wrong and this “whistle blower” story just blew up in all of the Dems faces

(courtesy Red State/Bonchie)

and thanks to Robert H for sending this to us.

b) zerohedge on the same subject as above

c)I guess when I say it nobody would listen, but when Goldman Sachs gives an ominous warning about the stock market chaos all should listen

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

d)This one is a biggy!! Part 1 Simon Potter was the former head trader at the NY Fed and was surprisingly dumped by head honcho Williams (who has no experience whatsoever in the handling of the “plumbing system” at the New York Fed).  Potter has now commented that the Fed has to buy  initially at least another 400 billion dollars of POMO  (QE4) to unclog the clot. The Fed’s balance sheet must rise by 750 billion dollars over two years and the  excess reserves at the banking system must initially rise from 1.4 trillion dollars to 1.8 trillion dollars.

Simon Potter/zerohedge)
e)Part ii/ The Repo mess
Another biggy!! Here zero hedge describes the Fed’s 1/4 trillion dollars in reserves and defines reverses as basically cash.  What they all want to know is why the cash did not move into the Repo or Money Market which has perfect collateral.  The answer is that 3 or so banks are probably bust and they need constant money to keep them afloat  (e.g. Deutsche bank/Danske?/HSBC?)
(zerohedge)
f)Part iii/the Repo mess/
And now Michael Harnett of Bank of America agrees. The 1.4 trillion dollar excess reserves at the banks plus the 3.8 tirilli dollars of bond purchases by the Fed (its balance sheet) is not enough. They need a huge $400 billion POMO plus purchases of $360 billion of bonds to normalize things.

\(zerohedge)

g) E cigarette company Juul is now under criminal investigation by the Feds as they are facing an FTC probe as well as an FDA

probe
(zerohedge)

h)Peter Schiff delivers a terrific video//commentary as to what is going on.  He correctly states that the Fed in 2011 gave us the illusion that they were going to unwind all of their new additions of bonds from the balance sheet.  Once the illusion ends, we basically have QE to infinity as that is the only thing capable of holding up asset prices.  This is why gold will continue on its northerly journeya must view..

(courtesy Peter Schiff/zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

As promised, Trump did nothing wrong and this “whistle blower” story just blew up in all of the Dems faces

(courtesy Red State/Bonchie)and thanks to Robert H for sending this to us.

plus 4 other commentaries on the same subject

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 2884 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 632,101 ACCOMPANYING THE CONSIDERABLE GAIN OF $8.60 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 9666 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR SEPT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 9666   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  9666 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 12,550 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 9666 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 2884 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS FAILED IN THEIR ATTEMPT AT CONTAINING GOLD’S PRICE AS IT ROSE BY $8.60. , THE CROOKS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE LONGS FROM THEIR OI POSITIONS. THE OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE APPRECIABLY FOR TUESDAY’S READING AS GOLD /SILVER ROSE CONSIDERABLY IN THE ACCESS MARKET ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  12,550 CONTRACTS OR 1,255,000 OZ OR 39.03 TONNES.

We are now in the NON  active contract month of SEPT and here the open interest stands at 17 CONTRACTS and we lost 3 contracts.  We had 3notices filed on Friday so  we gained 0 contracts or an additional nil oz of gold  will stand for delivery at the comex (and those standing for metal.. nobody morphed into London forwards),… the siege continues as the story for physical gold is the name of the game despite the criminal antics of the bankers.

The next active delivery month is October and here the OI FELL by 2518 contracts DOWN to 32,028. The month of November saw a gain of 17 contracts and thus the OI is ADVANCED to 191.  The very big December contract month saw its oi RISE by 4519 contracts up to 479,151.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 2 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  200 OZ. (0.00622 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 765 CONTRACTS FROM 211,198 DOWN TO 211,86 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S SMALL  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.  HERE WE HAVE 53 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 142 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 166 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE AGAIN SURPRISINGLY GAINED A FULL 24 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 120,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..  THE NEXT NON ACTIVE CONTRACT MONTH IS OCTOBER AND IT FELL BY 3 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1540. NOVEMBER SAW A SMALL GAIN OF 12 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 207. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 622 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 162,761.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 36 notice(s) filed for 180,000, OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 341,988  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  295,858  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  SEPT/GOLD

SEPT 23/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 482.265 oz

 

brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
2 notice(s)
 200 OZ
(0.00622 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
15 contracts
(1500 oz)
.0466 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1743 notices
174,300 OZ
5.4214 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else; 0

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ zero amount  arrived   today

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks: 482.265 oz

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 482.265 oz  oz

 

 

FOR THE SEPT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 2 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1743) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT. (17 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (2 x 100 oz per contract) equals 175,800 OZ OR 5.468 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of SEPT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1743 x 100 oz)  + (17)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2 x 100 oz )which equals 175,800 oz standing OR 5.468 TONNES in this  active delivery month of SEPT.

 

We GAINED 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will seek metal on this side of the pond, but despite the raid they refused to morph into  London based forwards….  The gold comex is still under siege for any remaining physical metal.

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 22.91 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 27.153  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING //AUGUST AND 5.468 TONNES IN SEPT.//

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD 0 TRANSACTION ON THIS FRONT.  SEPT SO FAR  JUST HAD ONE ADJUSTMENT, AND THUS I WILL ADD THE 27.153 TONNES TO THE 5.468 TONNES (EQUALS 32.621 TONNES) AGAINST THE 22.89 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  736,000.351 oz or  22.89 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,097,960.596 oz 251.88 tonnes

IN THE LAST 35 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
SEPT 23 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 600,686.610 oz
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
36
CONTRACT(S)
(180,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
17 contracts
 85,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  8643 contracts

43,215,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into everybody else 0

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of Scotia: 600,686.610 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 600,686.601  oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

i) Out of Scotia:  1,709,230.117 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account of Scotia and this landed into the customer account of Scotia

and this is deemed settlement.

 

total dealer silver:  83.480 million

total dealer + customer silver:  316.596 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER 2019. contract month is represented by 36 contract(s) FOR 180,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 8643 x 5,000 oz = 43,215,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (53) and the number of notices served upon today 36 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2019 contract month: 8643 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (53)- number of notices served upon today (36)x 5000 oz equals 43,300,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month. 

We gained 24 contracts or 120,000 additional oz of silver will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negate a fiat bonus.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

 

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xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  124,457 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 61,282 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 61282 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 306 million  OZ 43.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -2.52% ((SEPT 23/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.58% to NAV (SEPT 23/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -2.52%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.48 TRADING 15.03/DISCOUNT 2.88

 

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 23/WITH GLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 10.65 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 ON THE DAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.06 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 16/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A BIG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 12//WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A HUGE 7.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.15 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: I)A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD (LATE YESTERDAY EVENING) AND 2) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES LATE THIS AFTERNOON./INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.17 TONNES

AUGUST 20//WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

 

 

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SEPT 24/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 894.15 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 669 TRADING DAYS: 41.19 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 569- TRADING DAYS: A NET 125.42 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 23.2019/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.899 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION PAPER OZ OF SILVER///INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.425 MILLION PAPER OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.179 MILLION OZ../

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 60 CENTS TODAY: A RATHER TIMID CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 842,000 PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 386.604 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.696 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20.WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 23/2019:

 

 

Inventory 375.473 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.12/ and libor 6 month duration 2.04

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .08

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.05%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.06

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.01

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Gains 0.8%, Silver 3.4% As Stocks Fall on Bad EU Data and Oil Gains On Middle East Concerns

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE 1 DAY – FINVIZ

Stocks Going Nowhere in an Interesting Way – Hussman

China’s Golden Corridor – Gold Reserves And Negative Yield

Repo Market’s Liquidity Crisis Has Been a Decade in the Making

BIS Warns Of Financial Disaster Amid $17 Trillion In Negative-Yield Debt

Gold is “the most compelling form of potential hedge” – First Eagle

“We believe gold’s underlying long-term price stability, versatility, resilience, countercyclical relationship to stocks and duration make it the most compelling form of potential hedge.”
Thomas Kertsos of First Eagle 

 

Gold Prices (LBMA – USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)

20-Sep-19 1504.10 1501.90, 1199.07 1203.62 & 1361.06 1362.52
19-Sep-19 1498.40 1500.70, 1200.67 1201.76 & 1354.85 1357.08
18-Sep-19 1502.20 1503.50, 1206.27 1204.90 & 1360.39 1359.92
17-Sep-19 1499.30 1502.10, 1208.89 1207.24 & 1361.51 1360.45
16-Sep-19 1502.05 1497.20, 1207.35 1203.30 & 1357.25 1359.46
13-Sep-19 1506.30 1503.10, 1209.41 1208.19 & 1356.88 1358.35
12-Sep-19 1502.95 1515.20, 1219.94 1227.46 & 1362.88 1373.53
11-Sep-19 1493.65 1490.65, 1208.21 1209.07 & 1354.74 1355.90
10-Sep-19 1494.60 1498.25, 1211.52 1211.34 & 1353.51 1357.11

Click here to listen to the latest GoldCore Podcast

Receive our free Daily or Weekly Updates by signing up here and click here to subscribe to GoldCore’s You Tube Channel

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

The strange events that led to the removal of Nowak from the lBMA board.  It is not immediate.  It was 4 days after the fact

(Chris Powell/GATA)

Imagine what might happen if the FT asked more critical questions

 Section: 

11:53a ET Saturday, September 21, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Why did the London Bullion Market Association drop JPMorganChase commodity trading desk chief Michael Nowak from its board of directors this week?

Probably not because Nowak was indicted by the U.S Justice Department, accused of racketeering with other Morgan traders in part of the longstanding manipulation of the monetary metals markets. For the indictment was announced Monday and the LBMA did not drop Nowak until Friday.

… 

More likely the LBMA dropped Nowak because a major financial news organization, the Financial Times, asked the LBMA about Nowak on Friday.

How did the FT’s query come about?

It came about by fortunate happenstance arising from the work of Bullion Star gold researcher Ronan Manly.

Here’s the chronology of events.

The indictment was announced Monday:

http://www.gata.org/node/19445

In a post on Bullion Star on Tuesday that was quickly distributed by GATA, Manly disclosed Nowak’s position with the LBMA:

http://www.gata.org/node/19453

Meanwhile the Financial Times was researching a story about investors moving their gold from politically turbulent Hong Kong to Singapore. In the course of that research a reporter for the FT contacted Bullion Star proprietor Torny Persson, since Bullion Star operates a metals vault in Singapore.

The FT’s inquiry about metals vaulting prompted Persson to suggest to Manly that he send the FT reporter his report on Nowak’s position with the LBMA. Manly did so and the FT reporter on the Singapore story forwarded it to another FT reporter.

On Thursday the second FT reporter contacted Manly, and on Friday morning the newspaper published a story saying the LBMA was having “discussions” with JPMorganChase about Nowak. A photocopy of part of that story is here:

http://www.gata.org/files/FT-LBMA-Nowak-Story1-09-20-2019.jpeg

Four and a half hours later that story was removed from the FT’s internet site and replaced with a story reporting Nowak’s removal from the LBMA board:

http://www.gata.org/node/19466

Both FT stories described Nowak’s indictment as an “embarrassment” for the LBMA. But of course it would have been no embarrassment at all if Bullion Star’s Manly had not made an issue of it and prodded the FT to report it, since few people would have known about Nowak’s connection to the LBMA otherwise.

Such is the power of the press. It can trigger conscience, insofar as conscience is, as H.L. Mencken wrote, “the inner voice that warns us someone may be looking.”

Except for Manly, Bullion Star, and the inquiry from FT, Nowak might have remained on the LBMA board despite his indictment, the LBMA being barely less a criminal organization than JPMorganChase.

The point here is to imagine what might happen if the Financial Times, other news organizations, and those who purport to be market analysts started putting a few critical questions to governments, central banks, and investment houses about their surreptitious activity in the monetary metals markets.

What if, for example, such news organizations and analysts pressed the U.S. Treasury Department, Federal Reserve, and Commodity Futures Trading Commission for answers to the questions long posed to them by GATA and U.S. Rep. Alex X. Mooney but ignored? That is, which markets is the U.S. government secretly trading in and what is the purpose of that trading? Does the CFTC have jurisdiction over manipulative trading by the government or brokers working for the government, or is such manipulative trading legal, authorized by the Gold Reserve Act of 1934?

What if those news organizations and analysts made a big deal of the refusals to answer?

What if news organizations and analysts pressed the Bank for International Settlements to answer GATA’s questions about the bank’s surreptitious trading in gold and gold derivatives and made a big deal about the bank’s refusal to answer?

In that case the institutions being questioned might suffer actionable embarrassment just as the LBMA did this week.

But of course there can be no embarrassment when nobody is watching.

That is why, powerful as governments and central banks are with their ability to create and dispose infinite money, their greatest advantage long has been something else: the cowardice or corruption of mainstream financial news organizations and market analysts.

For as Mark Twain wrote, the human race “in its poverty has unquestionably one really effective weapon — laughter. Power, money, persuasion, supplication, persecution — these can lift at a colossal humbug, push it a little, weaken it a little, century by century. But only laughter can blow it to rags and atoms at a blast. Against the assault of laughter nothing can stand.”

The pious fraud of modern central banking will stand until news organizations stop being pious frauds themselves. Then the world will change.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

END

Chris Powell correctly states that gold/silver manipulation goes far beyond JPMorgan

(courtesy Silver Doctors/GATA)

Gold manipulation goes far beyond JPM, GATA secretary tells Silver Doctors

 Section: 

3:07p ET Saturday, September 21, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Your secretary/treasurer was interviewed this week for Silver Doctors and SD Bullion by James Anderson, discussing the new indictments of JPMorganChase monetary metals traders and the far bigger market manipulations behind the ones attributed to the investment bank. The interview can be heard at SDBullion.com here:

https://sdbullion.com/blog/jp-morgan-gold-rigging-a-fraction-of-the-stor…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

A terrific interview although short, Gold Money’s Alasdair Macleod reviews the evidence of strain in the entire ban

king system

(Kingworldnews/Alasdair  Macleod)

In KWN interview, GoldMoney’s Macleod reviews evidence of strain in banking system

 Section: 

10:40a ET Sunday, September 22, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In an interview with King World News, GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod reviews indications that the world banking system is starting to seize up and identifies the possible causes. The interview is headlined “Global Depression May Loom as the World’s Banking System Is Seizing Up as It Did In 2008” and it’s posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/macleod-global-depression-may-loom-as-the-worl…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

The New Orleans conference will be extremely important for you to attend..as there is so much going on. The conference will explain everything in detail as to what is going on

(GATA/Chris Powell)

What else could you possibly need to join GATA in New Orleans?

 Section: 

11:37a ET Sunday, September 22, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Wars and rumors of wars, negative interest rates, official clamor for currency devaluation, indictments of investment bank crooks, turbulent markets, expert analysis of investment opportunities, and oysters prepared a dozen ways — what else could you possibly need to attend this year’s New Orleans Investment Conference?

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and your secretary/treasurer will be speaking there and we’d like to see you, especially since if you register using the link at the bottom of this dispatch, the conference generously will make a contribution to GATA.

… 

In the letter below the conference’s organizer, Gold Newsletter Editor Brien Lundin, gives many more reasons why you should join GATA there.

The New Orleans Investment Conference is probably the most serious financial conference in the United States, even as it is held in what may be the country’s most fun and interesting city. Because of the conference, your secretary/treasurer has been there many times and always looks forward to returning for the beauty, history, food, and atmosphere of the place.

Indeed, the city itself competes heavily with the conference for your attention, so if you’re able, it’s good to give yourself an extra couple of days there.

The New Orleans conference has a long history of concentration on the monetary metals, and now that infinite money and devaluation have broken out among central banks and the monetary metals are on the verge of regaining their rightful places in the world financial system, this year more than ever New Orleans will be where gold and silver investors will want to be.

Registration for the conference entails a substantial expense, but as Brien explains below, if you register quickly you’ll enjoy a serious discount along with extra services at no extra cost and a money-back guarantee in case you don’t profit from attending.

Additionally, if you register using the internet link at the bottom of Brien’s letter, the conference will kindly pay a commission to GATA, which will diminish our fundraising appeals in the future.

So please consider joining us in New Orleans.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

The Only Certain Investment
in an Uncertain World

By Brien Lundin
New Orleans Investment Conference
Monday, August 5, 2019

I’m going to hand you the keys to preserving everything you’ve worked for during the turmoil just ahead — to potentially multiplying your wealth during this oncoming crisis and essentially giving you $400 to accept this vital information.

You see, for well over four decades — through some of the most turbulent and dangerous times in investing — there has been no better place to find profits and safety than the legendary New Orleans Investment Conference.

And here’s even better news: This year’s New Orleans Conference is destined to be one of the most rewarding in its 45-year history.

Why? Because while most investors are being whipsawed by President Trump’s tweets and Federal Reserve tea leaves, those coming to New Orleans will get the inside track on a few irreversible trends that will create fortunes.

Let’s take a look at them.

Gold: “Easy money forever” means much higher prices.

The New Orleans Conference has led more investors to profits in gold than any other event in the world.

In fact, our organization was instrumental in getting gold ownership legalized in 1974, and our first conference was specifically held to teach investors how to buy the metal.

Today finds central bankers locked into an “easy money forever” mode that is extremely bullish for gold.

This is no idle speculation: The Fed has completely switched from raising rates to cutting rates.

This will propel metals prices much higher — so we’re once again bringing the world’s most successful gold experts to New Orleans.

You’ll get the top strategies and picks of Rick Rule, Peter Schiff, Brien Lundin, Adrian Day, Brent Cook, Byron King, GATA’s Bill Murphy and Chris Powell, Gerardo Del Real, Gwen Preston, Lobo Tiggre, Thom Calandra, Omar Ayales, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, Dana Samuelson, and more.

Geo-political and market trends that could make or break you.

From Lady Margaret Thatcher to Ayn Rand to Henry Kissinger to Milton Friedman to Alan Greenspan to Ron Paul and more, the New Orleans Conference has a long history of attracting insightful and even legendary figures on the geopolitical and economic stages.

This year is no exception as we’re bringing in Trump economic adviser Stephen Moore, controversial political commentator Kevin D. Williamson, famed contrarian Doug Casey, Fed expert Danielle DiMartino Booth, respected contrarian advisor Peter Boockvar, popular trading authority Dennis Gartman, plus renowned experts like Adrian Day, Mike Larson, Mark Skousen, Robert Prechter, Steven Hochberg. and more.

Green fever in cannabis.

Fortunes are being made right now in the booming cannabis sector, but many investors are wondering how to get involved — and how to avoid the inevitable busts in this quickly evolving industry.

Have no fear, as New Orleans 2019 is featuring the experts who are finding the biggest winners, including Sean Brodrick of Marijuana Millionaires, Matt Carr of the Oxford Club, and Nick Hodge of the Outsider Club.

They’ll not only show you the specific cannabis subsectors that will be the long-term winners, but they’ll also reveal their hottest picks in this red-hot arena.

The future is now: Artificial intelligence, energy metals, fintech, and other juggernaut trends.

Artificial intelligence, the electrification of transportation, new battery technology, blockchain, crypto, clean energy, e-sports, income-producing real estate, medtech, streaming media, 5G, and more — these are creating huge opportunities for investors who can stay on the cutting edge.

Have no fear: Technology financier Ross Gerber, plus the world’s leading energy metals expert, Simon Moores and the Oxford Club’s tech expert, Matt Carr, will explore all these powerful trends at New Orleans 2019.

With Russ Gray and Robert Helms (the acclaimed “Real Estate Guys”), Chris Martenson and Adam Taggart of Peak Prosperity, and Nick Hodge running our inaugural “Next Big Thing(s)” panel, you’ll get insights into key opportunities that can both make fortunes and protect them.

Our quadruple-your-money guarantee — plus a $400 discount.

We will refund your entire registration fee if you find the conference doesn’t provide profits more than quadruple your cost to attend over the first six months following the event.

You can’t lose.

Correction: You can lose — if you don’t act immediately to secure your place at New Orleans 2019.

But here’s the problem: Our registration fee is about to soar, and at some point we’ll likely completely sell out.

The good news: If you register right now, you’ll save up to $400 from our full rate.

Not only that, you’ll also qualify for a free Gold Club upgrade.

Gold Club status gives you free coffee service throughout the day, an exclusive viewing area just for you, intimate Q&A sessions with many of our most popular speakers, free reports, and more.

It sells for $189, but if you register now you’ll get it for no extra charge at all.

All of this is guaranteed only if you register during this special offer period.

In the days ahead hundreds of thousands of investors will discover how exciting and valuable this year’s New Orleans Conference will be.

I can’t guarantee that any of these discounts, guarantees, or free benefits — or even a hotel room — will be available for much longer.

So if you hope to get in at the current early-bird rate and enjoy our quadruple-your-money-or-it’s-free guarantee and free Gold Club status, you’ll need to call us at 1-800-648-8411 or click on the link below to learn more and register now.

Please don’t delay. I look forward to seeing you down here in New Orleans!

All the best,

Brien Lundin
Editor, Gold Newsletter
CEO, New Orleans Investment Conference

* * *

To learn more or register, call toll-free 800-648-8411 or visit:

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

end

Thom Calandra is a good analyst. You may want to subcribe to it

(GATA

As monetary metals price suppression fails, you may want The Calandra Report

 Section: 

11:40a ET Sunday, September 22, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

With infinite money and currency devaluation now being the policy of many central banks, the prospects for the monetary metals mining industry will be spectacular as central bank commodity price suppression policy fails from exposure by GATA and others.

So GATA supporters should consider a generous offer made by our old friend Thom Calandra, publisher of The Calandra Report, a financial letter with an emphasis on resource companies.

… 

Thom will split with GATA the one-year subscription fee of $169 paid by GATA supporters who subscribe to The Calandra Report by tomorrow. That is, for each GATA supporter who subscribes, Thom will contribute $85 to GATA.

GATA supporters who subscribe by then will receive two bonuses as well.

— Thom’s frequent TCR Collateral missives, which include material from his notebook about financial people, companies, and commodities.

— A special recent issue of The Calandra Report that identifies what Thom believes are substantially undervalued gold, silver, and copper mining companies and a rising biomedical company with a promising new drug.

A note from Thom explains below.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Hello Alpha-GATAs. I have supported GATA since the early 2000s. Over the years GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, GATA Secretary/Treasurer Chris Powell, and I have shared ideas, panel appearances, and even a drink or three.

I’d like you to join The Calandra Report community. It’s been going since 2011, and since 1998 for MarketWatch.com, which I co-founded.

Here’s a small biography:

https://thomcalandra.com/about-thom-calandra/

Here’s a subscription offer exclusively for GATA supporters, like the offer we made last year.

You get the twice-weekly private reports for one year for $169 — along with our TCR Collateral letters — and GATA will receive fully half of that amount: $85.

For your review Chris has posted here —

http://gata.org/files/CalandraReport-08-04-2019.pdf

— a recent edition of TCR, which covers the weeklong resources symposium just concluded in Vancouver.

To accept this offer and help GATA, please go here:

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=588…

And please feel free to e-mail me with testimonials, ideas, and names: thom@thomcalandra.com

Thank you from northern California!

— Thom Calandra

* * *

end

iii) Other physical stories:

Martin Katusa tries to explain why negative rates are good for gold

(Martin Katusa)

China’s Golden Corridor – Gold Reserves And Negative Yield

Authored by Marin Katusa via InternationalMan.com,

Earlier this year, gold prices hit all-time highs in most major currencies.

The British Pound… the Canadian Dollar… the Australian Dollar… the Indian Rupee… the Japanese Yen… the Chinese Yuan… the South African Rand… and more.

It also broke above $1,500 in dollar terms. The highest it’s been in 6 years.

This shouldn’t come as a total surprise…a trade war between global economic powers, global debt spiraling out of control…

Iran and North Korea building up weapons…

The world is in uncharted waters.

Are the chickens going to come home to roost?

Today I’ll share a few of the major key themes that every investor needs to be aware of right now.

The Chinese Yuan is in Freefall

Given the recent onslaught of tweets from Donald Trump, you’d think the Chinese Yuan had just started falling.

In reality though, the Yuan has been depreciating since 2014.

This trend was further magnified when the Chinese government let the Yuan fall below its symbolic threshold of 7 Yuan per U.S. dollar.

When this happened, the #POTUS tweeting machine went out in full force, labeling China a currency manipulator.

Below is a chart which shows the historical exchange rate between the Yuan and the U.S. dollar.

Currency devaluation aside, it makes a lot of sense to own assets which hold their value.

Physical assets like gold, art and vintage wine all make for excellent hedges against currency devaluation.

But it’s tough for major institutions or governments to buy enough art or wine to truly protect themselves. This leaves gold as the number one acquisition.

It should come as no surprise that central banks have been very active in buying gold.

Especially China’s…

The Chinese Central Bank is Buying TONS of Gold

And I mean that literally.

Just so far this year, the Chinese have acquired 2.7 million ounces (92.5 tons) of gold. Using a spot price of $1,500, that’s $4 billion worth of bullion.

Below is a chart showing Chinese Gold Reserves.

As a country focused on exporting more than it imports, it’s no surprise China wants to keep its currency value low. I could see the Chinese accumulating more gold over the coming months if their currency continues to weaken due to the trade war.

The U.S.-China trade war has not only impacted the American and Chinese economies, but the entire pattern for global trade as well.

Leading global economic indicators like national Purchasing Manufacturing Indexes have only recently begun to nosedive. And this could easily be just the tip of the iceberg.

To make matters worse, it’s getting harder and harder to find somewhere safe to park cash.

In times of chaos, government bonds are usually a standard go-to investment.

However, times are changing.

Right now, many government bonds actually have a negative yield.

You read that right – if you invest $100 into negative yield or a government bond in almost any European nation, you’re going to get back less than $100 in 10 years’ time.

How crazy is that?

Below is a table which shows the current yields on government bonds in nations around the world. The darker the red, the more negative the yield.

I don’t see this changing anytime soon either.

I believe there’s more devaluation to come.

Below is a chart which shows the soaring amount of negative yield government debt. It has recently surpassed $15 trillion.

More alarming is the amount of corporate debt that has also hit negative yield. Currently there is over $1.2 trillion in negative yield corporate debt.

Just a few years ago there was virtually none. Below is a chart showing this dramatic increase.

Unquestionably there is blood in the streets of the bond market. Investors have no choice but to look for other places as stores of value.

That’s when investors look to the famous “pet rock” and “barbarous relic” for some wealth protection.

After all, it’s that or slowly lighting your money on fire buying bonds in countries with negative interest rates.

With bond yields the least attractive they’ve been in years, investors and central banks are turning to gold.

And with the recent surge in the Commitment of Traders long positioning and the price of gold smashing through $1,500… many pundits are saying “THIS IS IT!”

The technical chartists are all coming out with their best head and shoulders, bull flag, sliding wedge and upside-down watermelon patterns that determine the next leg up in gold.

To be honest, I couldn’t care less what the talking heads say their target price is.

From a fundamental perspective gold is very strong right now.

With nearly two decades of experience managing a fund focused on the commodity sector… I know that being positioned in the best gold developers and gold producers offers tremendous leverage to rising gold prices.

My subscribers and I are up over 100% on one of my strongest conviction investments so far this year.

Many of our other positions are up over 50% so far this year. Our portfolio is incredibly well positioned to profit from the global market chaos.

The unrest in China, the trade war and the rise of negative yield debt aren’t likely to be cleanly resolved anytime soon.

And in the meantime, many will flock to the safest haven they know – gold.

*  *  *

Negative interest rates are spreading like wildfire around the world. Investors have no choice but to look for other places as stores of value. That’s why many smart investors are running towards gold. It’s also why the big buyers, like China and Russia, are accumulating as much gold as possible. Here’s the bottom line… Negative interest rates and the devaluation of currencies will hurt a lot of people, particularly savers and retirees. But they will also give rocket fuel to the coming bull market in precious metals. That’s precisely why legendary speculator Doug Casey and resource expert Marin Katusa just released an urgent video on this topic. Doug and Marin breakdown exactly what is coming, and what you can do about it. Click here to watch it now.

end

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Russia continues gold purchases but volume down yoy

Russia adds 12.44 tonnes of gold to its official reserves.  Russia produces around 210 tonnes of gold per year or 17.5 tonnes.  No gold ever leaves Russia so no official gold was bought from outside.

The Russian central bank has announced the purchase of another 400,000 ounces (12.44 tonnes) of gold in August for its gold reserves. This brings its total holding to around 2,230 tonnes keeping it in fifth place among national holders of gold, and closing in on France and Italy – currently in 4th and 3rd places in terms of reserves as reported to the IMF, with respective holdings of around 2,436 and 2,452 tonnes. Of course many believe that China is actually higher than all these in terms of gold held as against the 1,936.5 tonnes it reports to the IMF as it has a track record of holding additional gold in accounts it claims are not reportable to the IMF. Be that as it may, if Russia keeps up gold purchases at the current rate it could surpass the French and Italian holdings within the next 18 months.

However there is some evidence that Russia may be cutting back its annual rate of gold purchasing, although it remains in first place in terms of annual central bank gold reserve increases. For the past three years it has accumulated 200 tonnes of gold each year, or more, but this year seems to be heading for purchases of perhaps 180 tonnes or less. So far this year Russia has added around 118 tonnes of gold to its reserves and, at the current rate, it looks like it may add a further 50 tonnes by the year end bringing this year’s total to perhaps 170 tonnes. Last year the nation added some 275 tonnes to its gold reserves, so this year’s likely accumulations represent a big cut. Although it should be noted that last year’s gold accumulation coincided with a particularly big drop in U.S. dollar related securities.

Russia has been running down its holdings of U.S. dollar-related Treasuries as a protection against a possible U.S.-instigated asset freeze as part of the latter’s ongoing and escalating, sanctions programme. The build-up in gold reserves is presumably an integral part of this process. In terms of gross value the Russian gold accumulations also look to have been a smart value move given the advance in the gold price so far this year to in excess of $1,500 an ounce, around a 25% increase over the past 12 months.

Russia also seems to be increasing its annual gold output as the world’s third largest producer of the yellow metal with an annual ouput estimated at 300 tonnes or more. It may even have aims of surpassing both the world’s No.1 (China) and No.2 (Australia) in terms of annual gold output over the next few years, given China’s gold production appears to be in a downwards phase largely due to stricter environmental controls being applied to the country’s mining operations. However, Australia’s gold output, although only a few tonnes in excess of Russian production, is also rising – it has also recently recorded a new record annual figure (see: Australian gold output hits new record) so there is something of a race to the top in progress, while China may not give up its No.1 producer crown without a fight. All three nations are likely to end up with 2019 annual gold production figures of between 300 and 400 tonnes, but retain their respective producer positions for the current year at least.

22 Sep 2019

-END-

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.1262/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.1197   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 27,37 POINTS OR 0.98%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 213.27 POINTS OR 0.81%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 34.64 POINTS OR 0.16%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.72/Euro FALLS TO 1.0982

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.21/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.43/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.86 and Brent: 64.01

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.58%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to .83% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.16%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.41: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.33

3k Gold at $1519.10.50 silver at: 18.40   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 10/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.99

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.85 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9875 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1077 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.32%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.05% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.57%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6988..

US Futures, Global Markets Slide As Europe Careens Into A Recession

The overnight trading session has been a tale of two halves, with the start of the session marked by sharply higher futures, following this weekend’s news that China’s canceled trip to Montana and Nebraska was made at the request of the US, and not as traders first assumed, by a negative turn in the lower-level discussions held in Washington last week. However, the early optimism quickly crashed after Germany reported the latest PMI data, which missed across the board, printing at 7 year lows, and was – in the words of Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, “simply awful.” (And it’s not just Germany: French PMIs were ugly too, missing across the board).

The result was an instant shift in risk sentiment, as not only is the German manufacturing recession getting worse, but the Services PMI also dropped, dragging the composite below 50 for the first time in seven years…

… slamming US equity futures, which hit session lows shortly after the German print…

… sending most global markets promptly into the red.

… and slamming the EURUSD back under 1.10

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index extended losses and European bonds rallied. Monday’s abrupt sentiment reversal followed the worst session for US equity indexes in about two weeks on Friday – ending a three-week run of gains – after a Chinese agriculture delegation canceled a visit to Montana, dampening optimism about the trade talks. Stock markets had been buoyed earlier in the week by the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates for the second time in 2019, joining other central banks around the world in easing monetary policy.

The gloomy European data was a stark reminder to investors of the fragility of the global economy. While markets remain on edge ahead of next month’s planned high-level trade talks between the U.S. and China, they’re also fixated on any action or messaging from the world’s major central banks that could support growth. A slew of policy makers will speak this week.

“Global growth risks are rising,” Beverley Morris, director of rates and inflation at QIC Ltd. in Brisbane, told Bloomberg TV. “It’s certainly not panic stations at this stage, but certainly in terms of our portfolio actions, we are being more cautious.”

Asian stocks edged lower, led by technology firms, as investors gauged South Korea’s export slump as well as the twists and turns of China-U.S. trade talks, with Tokyo shut for a holiday. Markets in the region were mixed, with India jumping and China retreating. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1%, dragged by large banks and insurers. China’s cancellation of a planned visit to farms in the American heartland was done at the request of the U.S., people familiar with the matter said. Equities in India continued a surge, with the Sensex surging as much as 3.8%, set for its biggest two-day rally in 10 years, amid optimism that the government’s $20 billion company tax cut will revive growth. HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank were among the biggest boosts. The Kospi closed little changed, as South Korean exports headed for a 10th monthly slide amid flagging chip sales

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar index climbed then pared gains as the U.S. and China continued to engage in discussions to overcome trade differences. The euro fell sharply and global bonds rallied after German manufacturing suffered its worst downturn since the financial crisis. Sterling slipped as U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson cautioned against the chances of a Brexit breakthrough when he meets with key European leaders in New York. The onshore yuan fell amid caution in the run-up to next week’s national holidays. The Korean won sank as exports continued to deteriorate.

In rates, U.S. Treasuries advanced for a sixth day with the 10-year yield sliding to its lowest since Sept. 12, dropping to 1.68%.

Oil fluctuated following a report that full repairs to Saudi facilities hit by a drone attack may take many months. Brent fell below $64 a barrel on Monday, reversing an earlier gain, pressured by the prospect of a faster-than-expected full restart of Saudi Arabian oil output and by fresh signs of European economic weakness. It was up earlier in the session, supported by scepticism over how fast output would come back.

“Oil prices are tracking European markets lower this morning, understandably knocked by the woeful manufacturing data from the bloc and the implications for global growth and demand,” said Craig Erlam, analyst at OANDA. Brent has still gained about 18% this year, helped by a supply-limiting pact led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, although concern about slowing economic growth has limited the advance.

Expected economic releases include PMIs. Cantel Medical is reporting earnings. Also on the radar is a speech by Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams at the 2019 U.S. Treasury Market Conference at 9:50 a.m. ET.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2,983.00
  • MXAP down 0.06% to 159.29
  • MXAPJ down 0.3% to 509.64
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 22,079.09
  • Topix up 0.04% to 1,616.23
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 26,222.40
  • Shanghai Composite down 1% to 2,977.08
  • Sensex up 3.1% to 39,197.38
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,749.72
  • Kospi up 0.01% to 2,091.70
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1% to 388.85
  • German 10Y yield fell 5.9 bps to -0.58%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.0980
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 3.7 bps to 0.582%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 7.3 bps to 0.163%
  • Brent futures up 0.4% to $64.51/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,519.44
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 98.74

Top Headline News from Bloomberg

  • Germany’s private sector is suffering its worst downturn in almost seven years as a manufacturing slump deepens, raising pressure on the government to add fiscal stimulus; a Purchasing Manager’s Index fell to 49.1 in September from 51.7 a month earlier, according to IHS Markit; the reading was worse than economists predicted and the lowest since October 2012
  • China’s cancellation of a planned visit to farms in America was done at the request of the U.S., people familiar with the matter said, indicating it wasn’t caused by a negative turn in the lower- level discussions held in Washington last week; trade groups from the two nations held “constructive” talks during Sept. 19-20, China’s Ministry of Commerce said Saturday
  • Thomas Cook Group Plc collapsed under a pile of debt after talks with creditors failed, forcing the British government to charter planes to bring home more than 150,000 of the storied travel provider’s stranded customers; trading in Thomas Cook’s stock was suspended in London and its euro bonds plunged 72%
  • Deutsche Bank AG completed a deal with BNP Paribas SA to transfer its prime brokerage business to the French bank as part of the German lender’s biggest overhaul in recent history
  • U.K.’s Johnson will start a week of intense diplomacy on Monday, as he tries to push for a Brexit deal on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York

Asian equity markets were mixed following the negative close last Friday on Wall St. amid temperamental US-China trade headlines, while the absence of Japanese markets also contributed to the lacklustre tone. ASX 200 (+0.3%) was positive with the index led higher by the commodity related stocks after gold advanced above the USD 1500/oz level and with oil underpinned by reports it could take 8 months for Saudi output to return to normal, while India’s NIFTY (+2.9%) outperformed again after the recent corporate tax cut announcement. Conversely, weakness in Hang Seng (-0.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) dampened sentiment in the region with underperformance in the mainland as ongoing trade uncertainty overshadowed the liquidity efforts by the PBoC. This followed conflicting reports in which US President Trump stated Chinese agricultural purchases will not be enough and reiterated that he does not need a deal before the 2020 election although it was also reported the US granted temporary tariff exemptions on over 400 types of Chinese products, while China’s delegation cancelled its US farm visit but this was later attributed to concerns it could turn into a media circus or may be misconceived as meddling and was not due to a breakdown in trade talks

Top Asian News

  • Bond Traders in India Caught Out by Surprise Fiscal Flip Flop
  • Israel Arabs Back Bid by Netanyahu’s Rival to Unseat Premier

Major European bourses are lower (Euro Stoxx 50 -1.0%), after disappointing PMI data stoked further concerns about the slowdown in Eurozone growth. The DAX (-1.2%) is the notable underperformer, slipping briefly below last week’s low and recent support at 12300, after German manufacturing PMI data pointed to the sector falling further into contractionary territory. Amid the risk off sentiment, utilities (+0.1%), consumer staples (+0.2%) and health care (unch.) sectors are supported, while materials (-1.6%), financials (-1.7%) and tech (-1.4%) are softer. Bucking the general risk tone are European airlines, including TUI (+7.5%), Ryanair (+1.1%) and easyJet (+3.5%), who are higher after rival Thomas Cook ceased trading activities and filed for bankruptcy. In terms of individual movers; William Hill (-4.0%) reversed early gains, despite premarket news that the Co. is looking for US broadcaster deals in an attempt to promote its brand. Elsewhere, K+S (-5.7%) sunk after being downgraded at Pareto Securities. Ocado (+0.2%) managed to reverse losses on triggered by news that the Co’s Chairman stated they “will go to any length” to protect their intellectual property, amid a court battle with a co-founder. Finally, ABN AMRO (-3.5%) is under pressure after being downgraded at Santander.

Top European News

  • Germany May See No Growth This Year as Manufacturing Slumps
  • Euro- Area Economy Comes Close to Stalling as Factories Suffer
  • Vonovia Becomes Sweden’s Biggest Landlord With $1.3 Billion Deal
  • Has Poland’s Government Become a Threat to Business?

In FX, further concerns about the European economy have weighed on the Euro in early trade as the latest flash PMIs out of the region deteriorated significantly vs. expectations. Germany’s release took EUR/USD below the 1.100 level with IHS noting that on its current trajectory, Germany may not see any growth before year-end, whilst VDMA added further pessimism to the German economic outlook. Further, the EZ release did little to immediately sway asset classes as participants anticipated a softer pan-release, but IHS highlighted that Q3 EZ GDP growth looks set to rise just 0.1%. Analysts at CapEco highlighted concerns regarding manufacturing contagion on the services sector whilst noting that a continuation in the employment component could lead to further easing in wages. Thus, the analysts believe that “there is little reason to think that GDP growth will pick up as the ECB and the consensus forecasts assume”. EUR/USD took out Friday’s low and a Fib level around 1.0995-97 to print a base at 1.0967 ahead of support at 1.0966 and 1.0950 (YTD low at 1.0924). Next up, participants will be eyeing ECB President Draghi’s final testimony to the European Parliament at 1400BST. Meanwhile, the Buck has derived support in light of a weaker Single Currency as DXY extends its gains above 98.50 to a high of 98.84 and ahead of the psychological 99.00 and resistance at 99.10. On the docket State-side, traders will be on the lookout for a few Fed speaks including Williams (voter, neutral) at the US Treasury Market Conference at 1450BST, Bullard (voter, dove, dissenter) on monetary policy at 1800BST and Daly (non-voter, neutral) on supporting US economy in urban & rural communities.

  • GBP, CAD – Weaker on the day, albeit more on the back of a firmer USD with Brexit-watchers still on the lookout for the Supreme Court’s decision on PM Johnson’s parliament prorogation. If ruled against (as legal experts expect), then the PM could be forced to recall MPs back to parliament. Cable remains marginally softer below the 1.2450 level (vs. high of 1.2490) after finding a base at 1.2424, which marks the lowest since 17th September (although that day saw a low of 1.2393). The Loonie also takes a spot as a G10 laggard, but mostly pressured by a retreat in oil prices as the post-PMI sentiment seeped into the energy complex. USD/CAD hovers around the 1.3300 handle (vs. low of 1.3257) with resistance seen to the upside at 1.3305 (200 DMA), 1.3346 and the psychological 1.3350 levels.
  • CHF, JPY – Marginally firmer amid a weakening EUR and flights to safety post-EZ PMI with USD/JPY back below the 107.50 level to a low of 107.30 ahead of support at 107.10, whilst EUR/CHF trades flat on the day but fell from an intra-day high of 1.0930 (50 DMA) to a base just above 1.0850 (with support and YTD low at 1.0809). Attention remains on the 1.08 level amid the recent rise in SNB total sights deposits with TD noting that the data suggests the SNB may be defending the level.
  • AUD, NZD – The antipodeans remain above water with the Kiwi outperforming its Tasman-peer ahead of this week’s RBNZ Monetary Policy Decision amid consensus for an unchanged Cash Rate at 1.00%, following its unexpected rate cut at its prior meeting, whilst the Shadow Board also recommends no change in policy. The currencies seem to have also derived some support from the US-China trade saga with Chinese state media noting that talks are constructive, and that the cancelled China visit to US farms was not a sign of deteriorating talks. NZD/USD hovers near intra-day highs (0.6277) after finding a base at 0.6250 whilst its Aussie counterpart remains above 0.6750, albeit off highs (0.6780).

In commodities, oil prices continued to come off its earlier highs, as focus shifted from the prospect of a more protracted disruption to Saudi Aramco supply than expected (which helped prices over the weekend) to concern over global growth, after more abysmal Eurozone PMI data triggered a bout of selling in the complex. Downside was exacerbated soon thereafter on source reports that Saudi Arabia’s Khuraris and Abqaiaq facilities are to fully restore oil production early next week (form current production levels of around 4.3mln BPD), contrary to WSJ reports over the weekend that repairs could take up to 8 months. WTI Nov’ 19 futures slumped through last week’s lows around the USD 58/bbl handle, before finding a base at USD 57.40/bbl, while Brent Nov’ 19 fell below the USD 64/bbl handle, although last week’s USD 63.06 low is still some way off. Gold prices are higher, despite opening on the back foot (on weekend reports that Chinese agriculture officials didn’t end their US trip early due to trade talk difficulties) and a firmer buck, with negative risk sentiment exacerbated by the aforementioned Eurozone PMIs helping to lift the precious metal; spot gold continues to climb from its recent USD 1500/oz base. On the flip side, global demand concerns are keeping copper prices under pressure.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0, prior -0.4
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 50.4, prior 50.3
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 51.5, prior 50.7;
  • 9:45am: Markit US Composite PMI, prior 50.7

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As astronomical autumn arrives today in the Northern hemisphere its apt that I got my wellies out yesterday for the first time in a few months after a fair bit of rain. Winter is coming. Also on ordering groceries online last night I got a bit of a shock as they have now started to sell mince pies in time for Xmas. Only 92 days left and just under 8 million seconds. It’ll be here before you know it.

After the central bank frenzy of the last 10 days, the next few days should be somewhat lighter for news flow for markets. Data highlights include the preliminary global September PMIs (today), the German IFO (tomorrow), and the US Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading (tomorrow) and UoM equivalent (Friday) with the spread between the two of notable interest as it has been a lead indicator of the cycle in the past (see below). From central banks, we have ECB President Draghi’s final “Monetary Dialogue” before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee (today), along with a number of other key speakers, especially from the Fed. Finally, we should hear the outcome of the UK Supreme Court Case on the prorogation of Parliament, while world leaders will be gathering at the UN General Assembly.

In a little more detail now, the key data highlight this week will be the preliminary September PMIs today (Japan tomorrow due to a holiday) with the big question continuing to be how and when the divergence between manufacturing and services will end. As an example the Euro manufacturing PMI has been in contractionary territory since February, while the services PMI has shown consistent growth over that period. The consensus expectation is for this divergence to narrow modestly, with the manufacturing Euro PMI rising three-tenths to 47.3, with the services PMI falling two-tenths to 53.3. The German manufacturing PMI will be of particular interest, which last month was at 43.5, and has been below 50 for the entire year so far.

Speaking of Germany, another key highlight will be the Ifo business climate survey tomorrow. In August, the indicator fell to 94.3, its lowest level since November 2012, while the expectations reading fell to 91.3, the lowest since June 2009. Nevertheless, the consensus expectation is for a rebound in both this month, with the business climate indicator expected to rise to 94.6.

With respect to US economic data, Tuesday’s consumer confidence report (132.0 forecast vs. 135.1 previously) and Friday’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey (92.0 final vs. 92.0 preliminary) will provide further information on the consumer outlook. As our economists have pointed out, as of August, the spread between the level of the two surveys was at an all-time high, which as their recent research has highlighted, may be sending a concerning signal even though on the surface the levels of both series remain elevated (see ” Yield curve inversion signals recession…(consumer) surveys say? ” ).

Another one to also watch out for is the third estimate of Q2 US GDP, although expectations are for the annualised rate to remain unchanged from the second estimate, at +2.0%. Meanwhile on Friday we’ll also see personal income and personal spending data for August, along with the preliminary durable goods orders reading.

There are a number of central bank speakers this week kicking off today with ECB President Draghi appearing before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, in his last “Monetary Dialogue” before his eight-year term ends on 31 October Other speakers this week include Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda and Federal Reserve Vice-Chairs Quarles and Clarida, while the Bank of Mexico will be making its latest policy decision. Within the Fed Bullard (voter/dove – wanted 50bps last week) and Daly (nonvoter/dove) will also be making appearances later on today, and Chicago’s Evans (voter/dove) will follow on Wednesday.

Turning to politics, the UK Supreme Court is expected to rule on the case over the prorogation of Parliament early this week according to the Supreme Court President. An update on timing is likely today. It’s also the Labour Party Conference, which is taking place currently until Wednesday, ahead of the Conservative Party Conference the subsequent week. The Labour Party are still fighting over a coherent Brexit strategy which further complicates potential scenarios going forward as it doesn’t seem to be working for them in recent opinion polls. Labour party leader Corbyn said that his party is pledging to hold a second referendum on Brexit if it’s elected to government, pitting ‘Remain’ against a “credible” deal he negotiates with the EU but without saying which side he’d campaign for. Elsewhere in politics, the annual General Debate of the UN General Assembly begins on Tuesday, with a number of world leaders expected to appear.

Overnight we got some fresh trade headlines with Bloomberg reporting that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He plans to visit Washington in the second week of October to meet Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for high-level negotiations while adding that the two sides are aiming for a high-level meeting around 10th October. Earlier, the USTR’s office said in a statement that the US and Chinese negotiators held “productive” talks on Thursday and Friday in Washington with China’s Ministry of Commerce also calling the meetings “constructive,” and said both sides agreed to continue communications on relevant issues. On Friday, President Trump said he wasn’t interested in “a partial deal” with China based on Beijing increasing its purchases of US agricultural products. Trump added that he wouldn’t relent without reaching a “complete deal” with China.

This morning in Asia markets are largely heading lower with Chinese markets leading the declines – the CSI (-1.49%), Shanghai Comp (-1.31%) and Shenzhen Comp (-1.43%) are all down over 1%. The Hang Seng (-0.86%) and Kospi (-0.15% are also down while Japanese markets are closed for a holiday. Indian stock markets are up another 2% this morning after advancing c.5% on Friday, the largest gain in the last 10 years, as the country lowered the corporate tax rate to 22% from 30%. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.38% while oil prices are up c. 1% this morning following WSJ reports that full repairs to Saudi oil fields hit by the drone attack may take many months.

To recap last week, the S&P 500 pared gains on Friday to end the week down -0.51% (-0.49% Friday) after Chinese trade negotiators cancelled a visit to US farmers and President Trump also said he didn’t need a deal before the election next November. Over the weekend there were reports that the cancelled trip to US farm states was not due to trade related issues and that the trip will be rescheduled. That news came too late to rescue markets last week as the trade-sensitive Philadelphia semiconductor index was particularly impacted, ending the week down -2.66% (-1.83% Friday), while Treasuries made gains for a 5th consecutive session following the news to end the week -17.4bps (-6.3bps Friday). The moves come ahead of what the US Trade Representative’s Office describes as “principal-level meetings” planned for October. The news came out after the European close, where the Stoxx 600 had gained +0.30% (+0.29% Friday) to advance for the 5th consecutive week.

Of course the other main market moves of last week came from oil, where further developments came on Friday as the US moved to sanction Iran. New measures were announced on the country’s central bank and its sovereign wealth fund, with President Trump describing them as “the highest sanctions ever imposed”. Brent Crude ended the week +6.74% (-0.19% Friday), the biggest weekly advance since January (even if it was up c.20% at Monday’s Asian open), while WTI Oil ended the week up +5.91% (-0.07% Friday). Energy stocks were the major beneficiaries, with the STOXX Oil & Gas index in Europe ending the week +4.46% (+1.69% Friday), its strongest weekly performance since July 2016.

The flight to safety amidst the geopolitical and trade developments supported safe haven assets, with gold snapping a run of 3 successive weekly declines to close +1.91% (+1.19% Friday), while 10-yr bund yields fell -7.3bps (-1.5bps Friday).

Amidst the stresses in US repo markets last week, which saw the effective federal funds rate move well outside the FOMC’s target range at one point, it was announced on Friday that there will be overnight repo operations daily of at least $75bn through October 10, as well as three 14-day term repo operations of at least $30bn each taking place next week. Two-year dollar swap spreads had hit a record low on Thursday, but widened after the New York Fed announced the operations. If you want to read more on this see DB’s Steven Zeng’s note ” Repo stress: a problem of too many collaterals, not a scarcity of reserves “.

A further interesting development on Friday came from Germany, where the government unveiled a €54bn package of measures to deal with climate change, which includes measures such as a carbon price of €10 per ton in 2021 for the transport and heating sector, rising to €35 per ton in 2025. However, Chancellor Merkel said that Germany would stick with the “black zero” policy of no deficit spending. Our German economists (link here ) write that the net fiscal impact next year will be 0.25% of GDP at best, disappointing those who hoped it would have been a “counter-cyclical package by stealth.”

As for the latest on Brexit, sterling weakened -0.18% against the dollar last week (-0.38% Friday) as negative comments on Friday from the Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, undermined hopes that a deal would be reached. Coveney said that “we need to be honest with people and say we’re not close to that deal right now.” Furthermore, Sky News reported that a leaked document from the European Commission said that the UK’s proposals failed to offer “legally operational solutions” to the Irish backstop. All this comes as the UK Supreme Court are going to be publishing their ruling this week in the case on the prorogation of Parliament.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 27.37 POINTS OR 0.98%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 213.27 POINTS OR 0.81%   /The Nikkei closed UP 34.64 POINTS OR 0.16%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .32%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.1262 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1262AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1197 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

This is a huge Bellwether on global growth:  South Korea exports collapse 21%, it biggest drop in a decade

(zerohedge)

South Korean Exports Collapse 21% – Biggest Drop In A Decade

Having “stabilized” at a dismal level on contraction, South Korean exports’ collapse just took another leg lower as the battle with Japan sparks the biggest drop in trade since 2009.

Exports (for the first 20 days of September):

  • to China -29.8%;
  • to U.S. -20.7%;
  • to EU -12.9%;

But as the trade war crushes chip exports (contracting 39.8%), the ongoing dispute with Japan is accelerating the overall collapse:

  • Exports to Japan -13.5%
  • Imports from Japan -16.6%

Sending overall exports (for the first 20 days of September) down 21.8% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

The Won has tumbled at the open…

Source: Bloomberg

South Korea is the first major exporter to report trade data each month, so provides an early reading of global trade; and as the world’s leading exporter of computer chips, ships, cars and petroleum products, September’s data is a major red flag for the global economy’s accelerating downturn (and global stocks’ earnings expectations).

Source: Bloomberg

end

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

China cancels the Montana and Nebraska trip saying that they did not want to interfere in USA politics.  The negotiations are back on but there is no hope of a deal.

(zerohedge)

Talks Back On: Here’s The Reason Why China Canceled Its Trip To Montana And Nebraska

With traders and algos expecting a calm quad-witching Friday, which was pinned by billions in option orders at SPX 3,000, stocks slumped in the afternoon following reports that trade talks with China had derailed once again, when first Trump said that he wasn’t looking to do a partial, agri-focused deal, followed by reports that China had canceled its trips to Montana and Nebraska, telegraphing that yet another major hurdle had emerged ahead of the October senior level trade talks.

As a result, even though S&P 500 algos were desperate to pin the market around 3,000 – thanks in large part to the massive gamma from quad witch, they failed after the China news.

Predictably, as stocks sold off, odds of a trade deal tumbled as well:

However, in retrospect, this risk off/selloff may have been premature because as the NYT reports today, “the delegation of Chinese agriculture officials that had planned to travel to Montana and Nebraska in the coming week didn’t cancel the trip because of any new difficulty in the trade talks” according to sources, and “instead, the trip was canceled out of concern that it would turn into a media circus and give the misimpression that China was trying to meddle in American domestic politics.”

Which is ironic, because it is hardly a secret that China is eager to delay the core of trade negotiations until after the 2020 elections, so as to avoid haggling with Trump while he is still president. Of course, by doing so China is indirectly “meddling” in domestic American politics, but for the sake of narrative let’s ignore that and focus on what the NYT reports, namely that “the Chinese government has long taken the position that countries should not interfere in each other’s domestic affairs, a position developed partly in opposition to foreign criticisms of China’s human rights record.”

As the NYT additionally reports, both sides moved on Saturday to indicate that the negotiations continue, and points out that according to China’s state-run Xinhua news agency, fairly senior negotiators had “conducted constructive discussions” in Washington in recent days and had “agreed to continue to maintain communication.”

The tone of the Xinhua statement was matched by a separate statement from the United States trade representative in Washington. “These discussions were productive, and the United States looks forward to welcoming a delegation from China for principal-level meetings in October,” the statement said.

Both sides’ trade negotiators have continued to look for a resolution of their differences even as tensions ratcheted ever higher over the summer, several people familiar with the trade talks said. All insisted on anonymity, citing diplomatic sensitivities in the negotiations.

Despite this attempt to ease some of Friday’s concerns that trade talks are again on the verge of derailing, the question now is whether China’s Vice Premier Liu He can make any progress when he comes to Washington for high-level talks next month: “While the dates for those talks have not been confirmed, they look likely to be scheduled for Oct. 10 and 11, said two of the several people familiar with the trade talks.”

More importantly, the NYT notes that “the biggest obstacle facing negotiators may be agreeing on the scale and ambition of any deal they try to reach”, with the gray lady citing “several people familiar with the trade talks” who said in interviews over the past two weeks that China wanted to reach a partial deal that would head off President Trump’s planned increases in American tariffs on Chinese goods on Oct. 15 and Dec. 15.

Then again, Trump made it clear during a press conference on Friday that a partial deal is a non-starter for him, which in turn means that Beijing may be forced to adjust its approach: “I’m looking for a complete deal, I’m not looking for a partial deal,” Mr. Trump said on Friday during a joint news conference with Prime Minister Scott Morrison of Australia. “We’re looking for the big deal.” This is a problem because according to the NYT report, “China has become more wary in recent weeks of seeking any comprehensive resolution of the dozens of issues facing the two countries.”

Chinese negotiators have tried to focus the talks on issues that can be resolved through regulations that the country needs to issue by early January anyway in response to a new law on foreign investments the National People’s Congress approved in March.

At the same time, Chinese trade negotiators have tried this week to exclude issues like data flows, the location of data and the setting of cybersecurity standards. In short, China is hoping to have no agreement on the issues that truly matter for a credible deal, for one simple reason: Beijing is completely unwilling to budge on any of these topics:

These issues tend to infringe on the turf of China’s feared internal security agencies, which have resisted any limits on their ability to conduct comprehensive surveillance within the country and are wary of allowing in American tech companies.

Meanwhile, the United States has tried to persuade Beijing to adopt broad changes to Chinese laws to make the country more open to imports and to limit subsidies for industries, particularly advanced manufacturing industries that compete with American industries.

So while the lack of Chinese trade negotiators in Montana and Nebraska may not be catastrophic for a future trade deal, it certainly looks unlikely that the two sides can meet in the middle… at least for now, absent a major market shock. It is hardly a secret that as the S&P rises, and remains just shy of all time highs, Trump’s willingness to compromise fades at least until the S&P drops to 2,800 or below at which point the president starts offering concessions, rinse, repeat.

zerohedge@zerohedge

So SPX goes back to 3050 where Trump announces 100% tariffs on all China imports then plunges to 2800 and Trump says all tariffs are delayed. Repeat as necessary

The two sides have nonetheless undertaken a series of small, confidence-building trade measures in the past two weeks. Each side has removed tariffs from a series of items, like Christmas tree lighting sets from China and pork from the United States. China has also agreed to purchase some soybeans this autumn.

Will that be enough? The answer will be revealed in a three weeks when senior US and China negotiators come to Washington on October 10/11.

end

The Chinese government taps on the shoulder of Chinese firms to rein in global purchases.  They have now turned net seller for the first time in decades

(zerohedge)

Chinese Firms Dump $40 Billion In Global Assets, Turn Net Seller For First Time In Decades

At the behest of the Communist Party leadership, Chinese conglomerates and investor groups have this year transformed from sometimes overeager spree buyers of foreign companies, real estate, and art, into net sellers of global assets for the first time since Chinese companies became big-time players on the global stage about a decade ago, the FT reports.

The shift comes as the Communist Party tries to tamp down on capital outflows as China’s economy weakens with reports suggesting that Beijing could report economic growth below 6% for 2019 and 2020.

Chinese companies have agreed to sell about $40 billion in overseas assets so far this year, up from $32 billion for the whole of last year, according to data from Dealogic. At the same time, Chinese groups have bought just $35 billion of overseas assets this year, making the country a global net seller.

Divestments in the US, where Chinese corporate buyers are now viewed with increased scrutiny, have soared to over $26 billion this year, up from just $8 billion for all of 2018.

The data from Dealogic goes back to 2015, when Chinese companies bought about $100 billion in overseas assets while selling only $10 billion to foreign buyers. However, an FT analysis of Dealogic’s data indicates that China has been a net buyer of overseas assets since at least 2009.

Many of the Chinese-owned assets hitting the market this year were purchased in 2016, the peak of Chinese firms’ off-shore shopping spree. That year, Chinese companies struck more than $200 billion in overseas deals, while taking on extremely high levels of debt.

“There was a crescendo of outbound Chinese deals – a few that lacked industrial logic,” said Raghu Narain, Asia Pacific head of investment banking at Natixis. “The deals that were either funded by too much debt, lacking logic or subsequent actual synergies are unwinding now.”

Two of the most high-profile Chinese acquirers during the boom have become the biggest sellers at the behest of their overlords in Beijing.

Airlines-to-finance group HNA, for example, which bought multibillion-dollar stakes in Hilton and Deutsche Bank in 2016 and 2017, has offloaded at least $20 billion in assets since late 2017 after facing a liquidity crunch in China. HNA sold Swiss air services company Gategroup to RRJ Capital for $1.4 billion earlier this year.

[…]

Serial acquirer Anbang Insurance, which was taken over by the government in 2017, has sold off much of its global portfolio, including a group of hotels sold last week to Korea’s Mirae Asset for $5.8 billion.

The decision to divest foreign assets was handed down from the party leadership a few years back as the PBOC and China’s other economic authorities scrambled to shore up their dollar reserves and lower corporate debt. Now is a particularly precarious time for Beijing, which recently recorded the first default of a local government financing company, adding to concerns that the Chinese economy could crumble like a house of cards as it pumps credit back into the economy.

end
Michael Every is one smart cookie. Today he comments that it would be impossible for a deal to be struck with China as it will change its entire economic model. Michael also weighs in on the Iranian conflict
(Michael Every/Rabobank)

Rabobank: There Won’t Be A Trade Deal Breakthrough As China Would Have To Change Its Entire Economic Model.

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

US stocks ended Friday’s session on the back foot after President Trump said that reaching a deal with China is not a priority ahead of the 2020 presidential election. Trump said he was not interested in “a partial deal”. He also claimed that the dispute will not undermine his chances to get re-elected (something that Beijing is most likely hoping for) and that his goal is a “complete deal” with China.

Talks between US and Chinese officials held last week were “productive”, according to an official statement published by the US Trade Representative’s office. The main focus was on agriculture. The US wants China to significantly increase purchases of soybeans and other agricultural products. However, yet another pledge from Beijing to buy more soybeans is unlikely to prove sufficient to reach a deal.

To our mind remarks from Trump imply that he expects China to address other crucial issues: intellectual property theft, barriers to entry for foreign companies and generous subsidies for state companies. We remain sceptical about a major breakthrough in the trade war in the coming months. China would have to change its economic model to address those issues – something that Beijing is not prepared to do.

Trump’s positive assessment of the US economy is one of the reasons why he does not seem to be under pressure to get a deal. He would have been far less confident if he read reports published by our Philip Marey, who expects a recession in the US next year. If he learnt that Philip nailed it anticipating last year that the Fed will be cutting rates in 2019, maybe he would have invited him to the White House for a chat. Meanwhile, Trump’s chief economic adviser Kudlow remains optimistic about the prospects for the US economy. The S&P 500 Index – one of the key barometers for Trump – continues to trade close to the all-time high. Perhaps if there is a “major” sell-off in excess of at least 10%, Trump will adopt a different approach.

While Trump continues to claim that the pressure is not on him but on China, the US actually excluded a wide range of products from tariffs in response to requests from US companies, which warned that such levies would cause economic issues. Winning a trade war may not be as easy as Trump claims. We will find out more next month when Chinese Vice Premier Liu He plans to visit Washington to meet US Trade Representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin for high level negotiations, Bloomberg reported.

The US opted for a relatively measured response to attacks on the world’s largest oil-processing facility in Saudi Arabia opting to send more troops and weapons to the Kingdom instead of a full-scale military action. Iranian President Rouhani, whose country has been accused for the drone attacks, has warned American and other foreign forces to “stay away” from the region saying that the presence of such troops in the Gulf has always brought “pain and misery.”

President Trump said he doesn’t plan to meet his Iranian counterpart Rouhani at the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday where the latest developments in Saudi Arabia are likely to be discussed. That said, he also added that it “doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen” as he is a “very flexible person.”

While a full scale military confrontation has been avoided, inflammatory rhetoric from all sides involved means that news headlines will continue to drive oil prices leaving oil importers the most vulnerable – especially emerging countries such as India, South African and Turkey – to a sudden spike in prices. Reportedly it could take months – rather than maximum 10 weeks promised by Aramco’s executives –to restore production to the pre-attack level. Brent crude continues to trade well above the September 13 close before the attacks took place.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

Our resident expert on Brexit affairs , Mish Shedlock states that we are now closer to a Brexit deal.  maybe we will not not have a hard Brexit but we may have a fair one.
(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Edging Closer To A Brexit Deal (Might Even Be A Fair One)

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Movement by the EU, by Boris Johnson, and most importantly by Ireland suggests a good chance of a reasonable deal.

Compromise Movements

  • Boris Johnson has had a series of good discussions with Ireland.
  • Out of the blue, Jean Claude Juncker gave an optimistic interview even to the point of scrapping the backstop.

Eurointelligence has an excellent discussion this morning on the political events. Emphasis is mine.

For a short moment last night, it appeared that the whole Brexit process was about to be solved. We don’t normally care much about interviews here at Eurointelligence, but Jean-Claude Juncker was well worth watching on Sophy Ridge’s show on Sky News.

He confirmed that a deal is possible. He said no-deal was catastrophic also for the EU. He was very clear that a deal would be based on a single market for agrifoods, with borders checks away from the border. He said the backstop was not sacrosanct, only a means to an end. And he said that he works on the assumption that Brexit will happen.

It looks to us that we are moving towards a deal vs. no-deal scenario by the end of the month. The whole dispute currently unfolding about prorogation and the Benn legislation is very much a sideshow. We will report on the UK Supreme Court’s ruling next week when it happens, but we are thinking the political process is much more important than procedure.

If a deal were agreed, we assume that the EU will agree to a demand by Boris Johnson to foreclose formally the option of an extension – except a short technical extension to make time for ratification. We have been arguing that the main loophole in the Benn bill is not procedural but political. The biggest loophole in the legislation is the European Council, whose operations are poorly understood in the UK, and not understood at all by the legal profession which obsesses with domestic procedure.

What would the UK parliament do? Would they try to test whether the EU is bluffing? This is quite possible, but that game is dangerous. They could vote against the deal, and the next day pass a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson. But Johnson is at that point under no obligation to resign. Under the fixed-term parliament act, the parliament could pass a vote of confidence in another MP with a specific mandate to seek an extension for an election. But would they? Would the EU relent, having committed itself in a Council conclusion not to do so? We cannot answer these hypothetical questions, but note that this would be a risky course that might backfire on those who take it. Would that course of action really advance the election prospects of Jeremy Corbyn?

Maybe the answer to all these questions is Yes. Stranger things have already happened in the Brexit process. But time is playing against hardline Remainers. We also get a sense from Juncker’s interview and other reports that the EU’s patience with the Remainer strategy is wearing thin. We think what tipped the balance was the EU’s gradual awareness of Labour’s policy that it would negotiate a deal only to allow Labour ministers to campaign against it. Labour obviously formulated this policy having not even consulted with the EU.

The big question is: could an agreed withdrawal agreement find a majority in the House of Commons? The math of this situation is the same as it always was. Johnson will need to get the DUP on board, quell his own rebellion, have a larger number of Labour MPs to support the deal. He can probably count on the group around Stephen Kinnock. Kinnock and Caroline Flint MP yesterday visited Michel Barnier to talk about the chance of a new deal. The hard-core group of Labour MPs in favour of a deal is around a dozen, but there may be up to 20 or 30 Labour MPs who could support a deal.

But we don’t think the Labour Party or the other opposition parties will come to Johnson’s rescue. The Remain campaign yesterday issued a dossier to warn Labour MPs against the right-wing policies that would follow a deal.

One possibility is that MPs might choose to abstain. In doing so they would still distance themselves from Johnson’s deal, but without being accused of triggering no-deal.

What Happened?

  1. The EU now realizes Boris Johnson really wants a deal. Johnson may have been forced into that position by Parliament but that is the state of affairs.
  2. Boris Johnson, DUP, and Ireland are coming to terms on how to remove the backstop.
  3. The EU realizes the losses will not most be on the UK. Germany is outright scared as I stated from the beginning.
  4. The EU understands the Liberal Democrats will not win the election.
  5. The EU realizes that Boris Johnson is likely to win an election and the result will be No Deal unless it happens now.
  6. Labour’s position of promising a referendum with a pledge to campaign against it makes no sense to the EU (or any reasonable person).

Point six was likely the last straw but point three is what forced the issue. Still, this was all a no-go without point two.

Fair Deal Increasingly Likely

Removal of the backstop is now a given. That’s going to happen.

But the backstop is not the only odious thing. At a minimum, Johnson needs to insist on removal of language that puts the UK at the mercy of the European Court of Justice (ECJ).

Johnson also needs to strive for a Canada-style deal. This does not have to be resolved now, just the groundwork.

The closer he can come to that, the better things will be for both the EU and the UK.

Finally, and importantly, the EU needs to come up with a deal that Parliament will ratify.

If the EU wants a deal, it has to bend.

Juncker signals the EU really wants a deal.

Increasing Odds of a Deal

Yesterday I wrote Increasing Odds of a Bad Brexit Deal as Liberal Democrats Leap Ahead of Labour

That is still true.

But the odds of a fair deal have increased as well.

Thus, the odds of No Deal have fallen.

Ironic Setup

I told people for months the EU would deal if someone would back them into a corner.

Many thought I was nuts. I don’t blame them but I have watched the EU in action for years and just like magic there is a compromise at the 11 hour.

That’s what is happening now.

Here’s the irony: The person backing the EU into a corner might not have been Boris Johnson, but rather Jeremy Corbyn running on the silly platform of promising a referendum and campaigning against it.

Remain is hopelessly split. The EU is not blind to that fact.

The EU was finally forced to consider this would drag on for years with the UK and the Brexit party disrupting European Parliament the whole time unless thew EU compromised or accepted no deal.

Not Over Yet

Many things can go wrong but the odds of a (both good and bad) are now rising.

Boris needs to negotiate carefully. The backstop is not the only issue.

Binary Choice

Here’s the final irony.

Theresa May struggled for two years to produce a binary choice option for Parliament.

We may now finally have one thanks to the Tory revolt and and crazy stance of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

Johnson and the EU need to find a solution that can actually pass Parliament.

If things go to plan, Parliament will have to accept No Deal or whatever Johnson can work out.

Pressure is on both sides!

Which is precisely what it takes to get a fair deal.

Kiss Remain Goodbye

Kiss Remain goodbye, it is not in the binary choice.

END

Denmark/Jyske Bank/Danske Bank

Jyske Bank has now set the bar by charging basically all of its customers a huge .75% for depositing their money in their bank.  HOwever large Danske Bank continues to charge its customers zero.  What gives? Depositors are starting to sniff that something is wrong here…and are turning to gold!!

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Is There Something Seriously Wrong With Danske Bank?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Last week, Denmark’s central bank cut its deposit rate to -0.75%. Banks will pass this on to large customers.

Please consider Denmark’s Jyske Bank Lowers its Negative Rates on Deposits.

Jyske Bank said on Friday people with more than $111,100 in their bank accounts will be charged more for their deposits as it seeks to pass on some of the costs of recent rate cuts by the European and Danish central bank.

Jyske Bank, Denmark’s second-largest bank, said it would introduce a negative interest rate of 0.75% for all corporate deposits and for private clients depositing more than 750,000 Danish crowns ($111,100) from Dec 1.

Last week, Denmark’s central bank cut its key deposit rate to minus 0.75%, a record low among developed economies. It is a lot of money and we have to pass on part of this bill to our customers,” he said. “I don’t hope that we will have to go lower but I don’t dare to promise it.”.

Denmark’s largest bank, Danske Bank has said it has no plans to introduce negative interest rates on deposits. Switzerland’s UBS has said it will impose a negative rate of 0.75% on clients who deposit more than 2 million Swiss francs ($2 million). ($1 = 6.7559 Danish crowns)

Simple Question

If you live in Denmark and have a bank account in excess of $100,000 or so, why would you have it at Jyske Bank which charges 0.75% while Danske Bank, the country’s largest bank doesn’t?

Possibilities

  1. There is something seriously wrong at Danske Bank and people don’t trust it.
  2. Danske Bank welcomes deposits and can do something with the money. But if so, at what risk?

Any Danish readers care to answer?

Perhaps we have an answer from Bloomberg in the following discussion.

Jyske Shares Jump on Interest Rate Charge

Bloomberg reports Negative Rates Just Got Real for a Record Group of Bank Clients

Shares in Jyske closed more than 5% higher marking their best performance since December 2017, as investors calculated the impact that the new policy will have on the bank’s net interest income.

Jyske has “set the ball rolling,” said Per Hansen, an investment economist at broker Nordnet.

Other Bank Comments

  • A Danske Bank spokesman said, “We cannot comment on competitors’ prices and have nothing new to add on the matter.” The bank has previously promised to protect retail depositors from negative rates.
  • Nordea Bank Abp spokeswoman Tenna Schoer said the Danish unit is “monitoring the situation closely.” The bank’s CEO Frank Vang-Jensen has previously said Nordea can’t rule out imposing negative rates on retail depositors.
  • Sydbank, which has already said it will impose negative rates on retail depositors with over 7.5 million kroner, is monitoring the situation. “We have taken note of developments in the market and have seen that interest rates have fallen further,” said Jan Svarre, deputy CEO at the bank. “We’ll investigate our options and where the limit should be, and then we will return and notify our customers directly.”

Per Hansen commented “imposing such a policy is politically difficult for Danske, given its recent history of financial scandals. The bank is being investigated for a $220 billion money-laundering affair, and has been reported to the police for a separate case in which it overcharged retail investors.”

Bonus Questions

  1. What happens to Danske if all the Danish money flees to Jyske?
  2. What happens if everybody takes their money and runs?

Regardless of the answers, I expect to see an increased demand for gold, the US dollar, US treasuries, and safes as these pass-through policies escalate.

Please recall what happened in Japan on far less negative rates: Safes Sold Out in Japan: Customers Hoard Cash in Response to Negative Rates

A week ago I commented on the ECB’s Counterproductive QE: Whatever It Takes Morphs Into “As Long As It Takes”

European banks are getting killed on these policies.

Ball is Rolling

Jyske has “set the ball rolling,” said Per Hansen.

Yes, and if Central Banks stick with their “as long as it takes” approach, the results are likely to be disastrous.

end

Oh OH!!  The CEO of Estonia’s branch of Danske bank has just mysteriously disappeared as the fraud scandal intensifies

(zeorhedge)

CEO Of Danske’s Estonian Branch Mysteriously Disappears As Fraud Scandal Intensifies

Aivar Rehe, the former CEO of Danske Bank’s Estonian branch, has been missing since Monday, and police don’t have any information about where he might have gone.

Estonian police couldn’t identify the missing person by their full name to reporters after reports about a banking executive being arrested surfaced early Monday morning. But after Rehe’s siblings reached out, police confirmed that he is indeed the missing executive.

Rehe left his home in greater Tallinn at about 10 a.m. local time wearing a black jogging suit, police said.

Aivar Rehe

The kidnapping comes as Danske tries to untangle itself from a money laundering scandal, in which it alleged that billions of dollars in suspicious funds flowed from banks within the former Soviet Union into the West through the tiny Estonian branch.

As we noted last week, Denmark’s central bank cut its deposit rate to -0.75%, expecting Banks will pass this on to large customers.

Below is commentary from Denmark’s Jyske Bank as it Lowers Negative Rates on Deposits.

Jyske Bank said on Friday people with more than $111,100 in their bank accounts will be charged more for their deposits as it seeks to pass on some of the costs of recent rate cuts by the European and Danish central bank.

Jyske Bank, Denmark’s second-largest bank, said it would introduce a negative interest rate of 0.75% for all corporate deposits and for private clients depositing more than 750,000 Danish crowns ($111,100) from Dec 1.

Last week, Denmark’s central bank cut its key deposit rate to minus 0.75%, a record low among developed economies. “It is a lot of money and we have to pass on part of this bill to our customers,” he said. “I don’t hope that we will have to go lower but I don’t dare to promise it.”.

Denmark’s largest bank, Danske Bank has said it has no plans to introduce negative interest rates on deposits. Switzerland’s UBS has said it will impose a negative rate of 0.75% on clients who deposit more than 2 million Swiss francs ($2 million). ($1 = 6.7559 Danish crowns)

Of course, Danske is responsible for one-third of the Danes’ deposits. If the bank’s business were to be severely punished by the ECB or other regulators, it could jeopardize the safety of the Danske banking system.

end
Germany

the engine for Europe is Germany and we are continually reporting bad numbers.  Today, it is the biggy, the PMI and the German mfg PMI plunges to a 7 year low

(zerohedge)

“Simply Awful”: German PMI Plunges To 7-Year Low As Manufacturing Recession Accelerates, Spreads To Services

Weakness in euro-area manufacturing hit a climax this morning as German private sector activity plunged to a seven-year low. The Germany Manufacturing PMI slumped in September, dropping to 41.4, down from 44.7 in August, printing below the lowest sellside estimate (consensus of 44.4); worse, the German manufacturing recession is now spreading to the services sector, where the formerly resilient services PMI also slumped from 54.8 to 52.5, also missing the lowest analyst estimate, and collectively, resulting in the first composite PMI print below 50, or 49.1 to be precise, since April 2013. The rate of decline was one of the sharpest in seven years.

Key findings of the report indicate business conditions across Germany continue to deteriorate with no end in sight.

  • Flash Germany PMI Composite Output Index (1) at 49.1 (Aug: 51.7). 83-month low.
  • Flash Germany Services PMI Activity Index(2) at 52.5 (Aug: 54.8). 9-month low.
  • Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI(3) at 41.4 (Aug: 43.5). 123-month low.
  • Flash Germany Manufacturing Output Index(4) at 42.7 (Aug: 45.8). 86-month low.

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit said that “The manufacturing numbers are simply awful. All the uncertainty around trade wars, the outlook for the car industry and Brexit are paralyzing order books, with September seeing the worst performance from the sector since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009. 

“Another month, another set of gloomy PMI figures for Germany, this time showing the headline Composite Output Index at its lowest since Octobr 2012 and firmly in contraction territory. “The economy is limping towards the final quarter of the year and, on its current trajectory, might not see any growth before the end of 2019. 

With job creation across Germany stalling, the domestic-oriented service sector has lost one of its main pillars of growth. A first fall in services new business for over four-and-a-half years provides evidence that demand across Germany is already starting to deteriorate.”

In kneejerk reaction, global equity futures across the world slumped. European equity futures, from the STXE 600, DAX, CAC 40, FTSE MIB, and IBEX 35 were down over -1%. S&P500 mini tumbled nearly -1%, rejecting the 3,000-handle, and finding a short term bottom around 2982 at the 5 am est. hour.

 

European banks were some of the worst performers of the morning, pulled lower by lenders after PMI figures for Germany were released. round 5 am est., the Stoxx 600 Bank Index was down -1.6%.

Commerzbank (-5.1%) and Deutsche Bank (-3.6%) lead the declines as the latest PMI figures confirmed Germany is in a technical recession.

In currencies, the dismal PMI data pressured the common currency, and the EURUSD lost the $1.10 handle, dropping 0.5% to 1.0966, after both Germany and France PMis missed, and what’s worse, now indicate there are spillover effects into the service sector.  “Option-related demand around 1.1000 failed to absorb the selling pressure, with intraday bidding interest below 1.0980 also coming to the test,” traders told Bloomberg.

The weak PMI data from Europe was not a surprise, but the spillover into services shows the consumer is starting to weaken, an indication that the slowdown is broadening.

Predictably, Bund yields across the euro area fell in response to PMI figures for Germany, which deepened investors’ recession fears and sparked a rally in government bond markets, where yields declined.

“The bit that will worry markets is that services that have been largely immune now show signs of substantial contagion effect from the slowdown in manufacturing,” said Marc Ostwald, global strategist at ADM Investor Services.

“In terms of today’s price action it will put a big old dent in equities and give the whole spectrum of government bonds a boost.”

Germany’s 10-year bond yield fell to -0.576% — its lowest level since the ECB meeting (Sept. 12) concluded that rate cuts and fresh stimulus were needed to boost weak growth.

The MSCI All Country World Index, which tracks shares across 47 countries, also dropped on the news of more slowing in Europe.

end

Bill Blain has an interesting read on the devastation in the aero space/holiday industry

(Bill Blain)

Blain: Investors Will Be Asking Themselves: “How Could We Have Been So Stupid?”

Blain’s morning porridge, submitted by Bill Blain of Shard Capital

“Don’t just book it.. Thomas Cook it.. Perhaps not..”

It’s the Autumn equinox… Winter is coming…

Interesting week in prospect with the great and the good hobnobbing in New York for the UN Climate Action gab-fest.  Which global leader will win the prize for the greatest display of overdone sycophancy to a) Greta Thunberg, b) Donald Trump (who won’t be there..), or for snubbing Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro. I know which ones I wouldn’t vote for.  Whatever happens in NY, it’s clear Greta has changed the global agenda on Climate chance – putting it at the top of every politicians to-do list.  Germany has clearly been listening – the new black-zero Carbon programme trumps anything else in Europe.

Elsewhere I can only giggle that its all coming apart at WeWork – exactly as predicted months ago. The sparkling consciousness changing Tech company that is really just a property letting agency looks on the edge of self-implosion following the pulled IPO.  Its possible the frankly weird CEO could be ousted this week. Its going to trigger some serious reassessment of the unicorn sector/model – lots of comment about 2000 dot.com boom all over again.  Yet again global investors will be asking themselves: “how could we have been so stupid??”  There is always another charlatan selling the deeds to a snake oil mine waiting somewhere in the wings.

It’s time to look again at the real world..

And talking of the real world and real assets…   I can only assume Scotland’s poor showing at the World Cup on Sunday was due to worry about how they get home. There travels plans are sponsored by Thomas Cook.  Aircraft are one of my favourite real assets….

Its sad day for holidaymakers as 178 year old Thomas Cook goes to the wall. The authorities were expecting it, and a massive repatriation programme has gone into motion.

What killed Thomas Cook?  Liquidity will be listed on the death certificate, but the many issues it failed to address were all about its changing competitive landscape in terms of competition from the collapse in Sterling, Low Cost Carriers, destinations like Egypt, Turkey and Tunisa becoming politically unattractive, new holidays formats like AirBnB, staycations and increasing passenger independence.  The sad fact is the days of the package holiday were over years ago, and Thomas Cook never realised it – which is why it’s been in trouble so long.

What does the collapse do to Aircraft financing deals? Thomas Cook leased most of its 116 Airbus and Boeing aircraft from 38 different leasing companies, who will have financed these aircraft though a mix of sources, including debt, securitisations and private placements.  I understand at least one of its larger Airbuses is also a reserve tanker for the RAF!

Although it sounds like a huge number of aircraft are suddenly hitting the aircraft used-plane lot, it should not be too destabilising. In fact, if you get shown and cheap aviation finance offers, this may be an opportunity to buy deals cheap on any panic.

What may trigger a bout of selling is general fear about aviation as a whole.  Airlines go broke with monotonous regularity, and Thomas Cook will certainly rank among the larger collapses.  The potential problem is rentals from the Aircraft Thomas Cook was using will dry up until the aircraft can be released or sold – meaning any deals financing these planes will likely underperform.

How quickly the planes are re-let or sold depends on a number of factors.

The leasing companies would have been watching the company’s death throes very carefully and will have been prepared. They will have already sent crews to fly out the aircraft to sites where they fix them up and rebadge them.  (Planes from the collapse of Monarch were up and flying in new colours very swiftly just a few years ago.) The lessors will already have taken control of their assets, which includes all the documentation on each plane to prove their maintenance and service records are up to date.  More to the point they will already have earmarked potential purchasers/users.

For popular aircraft types – particularly the Airbus A320/321s, there will be ready demand from airlines suffering as a result of the grounding of the Boeing 737 Max series.  With over 400 Maxes grounded across the world, airlines have big airplane shaped holes in the flight schedules. The larger Airbus A300s and the Boeing 757 and 767’s might prove slower to shift – so check any deals to see if they include these types. I’ll be talking with industry experts today to identify which deals to worry about – if any!

A number of investors have told me they are concerns the aviation industry is looking toppy – quoting concerns about what will have to aviation values in a general recession, how the growing demand from China can be sustained if the Chinese economy is slowing to more “normal” rates and what the effects of climate change protests will be on the long-term future of air-travel.  I’d balance these all with growing middles classes across the globe, especially in Asia, and the fact Aviation contributes a fraction of the Co2 of the fashion industry.

More generally the Aviation market is moving towards smaller regional aircraft, and the demise of the Airbus superjumbo A380 programme demonstrates it’s the smaller more versatile aircraft that are in demand.  The lack of significant new orders for larger types like the Boeing Dreamliner and its Airbus competitor the A350 is a concern – but long-haul travel is not going to vanish!

Sticking on the Aviation theme this morning, there is some very peculiar stuff going on re the Boeing B737 Max story.  Last week there was a very well-informed article in the NYT that effectively put the blame for the Lion Air and Ethiopian crashes back onto the airlines and crews – suggesting the companies lacked basic safety and maintenance competence, while the crews were poorly trained and not proper airmen. The story highlighted conflict between the investigating authorities in Indonesia and Ethiopia with Boeing, stopping just short of accusing both countries of corruption.  It was very well briefed.   (Check the website for links to the story.)

It looks likely the Indonesian crash report (probably to be released in November) will blame design and oversight failures at Boeing – and accept there were maintenance and pilot errors. It does sound like something of a distraction – the basic problem is Boeing kept on modernising the B-737 until it became and unstable Frankenstein of a plane, where Boeing put in systems and software pilots were unaware of.  It’s raising all kinds of questions about just how close Boeing is to its regulator, the FAA, and did it push through approvals for a flawed plane.  Its also hit passenger and pilot confidence in Boeing – yet such is the demand for new aircraft, Boeing stock remains hardly touched!

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Egypt

Egypt is rocked Friday by rights in Cairo, Alexandria and Suez demanding the ousting of Sisi

(zerohedge)

 

Arab Spring 2.0?: “Sisi Must Leave” Mass Protest Rocks Egypt’s Streets Overnight

Overnight mass protests popped up in the streets of Cairo involving hundreds, possibly thousands, who took over a central square of the capital to demonstrate against strongman Egyptian ruler Abdel Fatah al-Sisi.

Like the prior so-called ‘Arab Spring’ protests which rocked Egyptian streets starting in 2010 through 2011, which began the chain of tumultuous events which ended in Sisi’s taking power via coup d’état toppling the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsi, Friday night’s spontaneous demonstrations, which also hit the port cities of Alexandria and Suez, were the result of coordinated online organizing.

Bessma Momani

@b_momani

Abdel Moniem square in Cairo Egypt…

Embedded video

Videos showed protesters angrily chanting anti-Sisi slogans demanding that he leave office, and in some cases destroying posters and images bearing his face. Demonstrations also reportedly occurred in the smaller cities and towns Damietta, Damanhour and Mahalla.

Pro-government television broadcasts had dismissed the sizable demonstrations, news of which quickly went viral, as minuscule and the mayhem of small groups of youths.

Other pro-government media reports said the scene around Tahrir Square, site of the first Arab Spring mass protests, was quiet; however, international correspondents cited up to “thousands” gathered there.

Mohammed Soliman@soliman91

: Demonstration in front of the journalists union in downtown, Cairo, chanting “ Must Leave.” https://twitter.com/Egyptaawy/status/1175195906603462656 

Moh Khaled El Dawy ®@Egyptaawy

أمام نقابة الصحفيين

Embedded video

The protesters’ message was chiefly focused on anti-corruption, according to international reports, and is an incredibly risky endeavor in Sisi’s Egypt — given the de facto state of martial law that exists and police heavy handed tactics which include imprisoning journalists, and widespread reports of torture.

Liz Sly

@LizSly

More from Egypt tonight, because, wow. This is Mahalla which you could argue is where the Arab Spring really began, on April 6, 2008.

Embedded video

Limited clashes with police were reported late Friday, with security services deploying tear gas and possibly other riot control measures.

Hassan Hassan

@hxhassan

You realize what it means to protest against Sisi? It could rotting in jail, being killed and/or your family going through various forms of hell

Embedded video

As The Guardian reports, citing close to 60 arrests overnight:

Security forces moved to disperse the small and scattered crowds in Cairo late on Friday using teargas but many young people stayed on the streets in the centre of the capital, shouting “leave, Sisi”, Reuters reporters at the scene said.

At least 55 people were arrested on the charge of demonstrating without permission, according to one local media outlet citing Egypt’s Ministry of the Interior. The Cairo-based Egyptian Centre for Economic and Social Rights recorded 36 arrests in Cairo and outside of the capital. The number of those arrested is expected to rise.

Mohamed Hassan@MHassan_1

UPDATE: protests have now spread to all major cities in calling for the removal of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Here’s a thread on what we know so far.

Embedded video

Despite those taking to the streets potentially facing immediate arrests, Friday’s demonstrations were impressive enough in size to likely continue through the weekend, and could get fiercer as they gain in momentum.

No matter how large such anti-Sisi street demonstrations might become, they are unlikely to gain much support or acknowledgement out of the White House, given Egypt’s military ‘deep state’ has for decades since the 1979 Egypt-Israel peace treaty was signed just after the Camp David Accords, been bought and paid for by American foreign aid.

Trump’s recent outburst at the G7 summit in France might also be an indicator of where things stand: he reportedly called out “Where’s my favorite dictator!” while referencing the Egyptian president.

end

IRAN

Iran warns the USA that even limited strikes will lead to a world war. Salami, Major General of the Revolutionary Guard made that statement after the USA announced it was sending forces to Saudi Arabia

(zerohedge)

Iran Vows Major War Even If US Conducts “Limited Strikes”

Just after on Friday Pentagon leaders presented Trump with numerous “military options” for a response to Iran following last week’s twin attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, Iran has again put the US on notice that any “limited attack” will assuredly lead to major war.

The briefing on “options” for responding to Iran were followed by a late Friday Pentagon announcement that it is deploying US troops to Saudi Arabia as a “first step” which could be followed by additional “kinetic” moves down the road. “As the President has made clear the United States does not seek conflict with Iran. That said we have many other military options available should they be necessary,” Defense Secretary Mark Esper said in the briefing.

Iran on Saturday responded to the move by again declaring any potential “limited” US attack on Iran would certainly lead to rapid escalation. The head of Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Major General Hossein Salami, said in remarks broadcast on state TV that no such limited strikes would actually remain ‘limited’.

 

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Major General Hossein Salami, via AMN News

Gen. Salami said:

“Be careful, a limited aggression will not remain limited. We will pursue any aggressor.”

Clearly understanding Trump’s deep reluctance to drag the United States into yet another costly Middle East quagmire, it appears the Iranians are telegraphing that if they can convince Washington that even a small, one-off strike on Iran could spark WW3, this could dissuade the US altogether from even limited, “kinetic” missions.

It’s likely the administration could be spit-balling the idea of missile strikes similar to Trump’s two instances of bombing Syrian government facilities — each confined to a single night, not more than hours long, but going no further in terms of expanding the scope of originally defined objectives.

It must also be remembered that over the past summer of ratcheting tanker wars, the IRGC’s Salami has repeatedly warned of capabilities to strike American bases and ships, including carriers, in the region.

“Iran’s reach is no more confined to within its borders,” Gen Salami said months ago.

“endA guidance and control system capable of steering a ballistic missile to hit a mobile target is a miracle of technology which is possessed by maybe one or two countries (in the world),” he had explained at the time.

But it remains to be seen that if a US first were to be initiated whether the Iranians would actually respond. There’s little doubt, however, that even such a “limited” US missile attack would put American troops and assets stationed in the region in harm’s way.

Any potential Iranian response might even start on Saudi soil, where extra US troops are now being sent, according to the Pentagon plan.

end

Rouhani is set to meet Trump in NY as Trump lays out to the Assembly how the Iranians orchestrated the hit on Aramco.

Should be interesting

(zerohedge)

Rouhani Willing To Meet With Trump This Week At UN, CNN’s Amanpour Says

Despite the United States vowing it would make its case against Iran at this week’s United Nations Assembly meeting in New York, especially regarding its alleged role in the Saudi Aramco attack, we could see an opening of direct dialogue between Tehran and Washington this week.

This after CNN’s Christiane Amanpour indicated Sunday that President Hassan Rouhani may be willing to meet with President Trump on the sidelines of the assembly. The prominent CNN news host revealed the information in a tweet based on a new interview she did with Iran’s foreign minister Javad Zarif. 

Amanpour said, citing Iran FM Zarif’s words, that “President Rouhani is willing to meet with President Trump in New York this week ‘provided that President Trump is ready to do what’s necessary,’ exchanging sanctions relief for ‘permanent monitoring of Iranian nuclear facilities.’”

Christiane Amanpour

@camanpour

NEW: Iranian FM @JZarif tells me today that President Rouhani is willing to meet with President Trump in New York this week “provided that President Trump is ready to do what’s necessary,” exchanging sanctions relief for “permanent monitoring of Iranian nuclear facilities.”

View image on Twitter

Amanpour further quoted Zarif as saying in a follow-up tweet:

“The olive branch has always been on the table, but we’re showing it again.”

Over the past month mixed signals have come out of the White House — at times Trump has gone so far as to float ‘no preconditions’ talks, but at others has lambasted “fake news” about face-to-face talks.

Rouhani is actually scheduled to meet with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson on the sideline of the UN assembly on Tenduesday, despite Johnson’s recent statements pointing the finger at Tehran for the Saudi Aramco attack, and his further indicating he’s not ruled out military action against Iran.

But there could be a rapid thawing of tensions given on Monday Iran announced it has freed the 2-month detained British-flagged Stena Impero, in what appears a good will gesture just ahead of the key meeting the PM Johnson.

Whether Rouhani and Trump actually meet could depend on developments in the meeting with PM Johnson, where the Iranian leader will likely be pressed over possible involvement in the Saudi Aramco attack.

 

Iran announced Monday the British-flagged tanker is “free to go”.

At the UN assembly itself the Iranians are expected to propose a new plan to deescalate regional tensions, which it has called the ‘Hormuz Peace Endeavor’ — and would involve a gulf countries only patrol of the Persian Gulf, presumably led by Iran itself.

Zarif told reporters while in New York that under the plan “all the coastal states of the Persian Gulf are invited to join this coalition to provide and maintain regional security.”

The Iranians are also expected this week to argue vehemently against the US-led “illegal and unjust” sanctions targeting the country. “The cruel actions that have been taken against the Iranian nation and also the difficult and complicated issues that our region faces with them need to be explained to the people and countries of the world,” Zarif said to reporters.

end

Iran

Iran frees the British flagged Stena Impero a day before the crucial UN summit

(zerohedge)

Iran Frees UK-Flagged Stena Impero A Day Before Crucial UN Summit

Iran has indicated it has freed the British-flagged oil tanker Stena Impero on Monday upon the announcement by officials in Tehran that the ship is “free to leave” — though it’s reportedly yet to move out of Iranian waters.

This brings to an end the two-month standoff since the vessel had been captured by the IRGC in the Strait of Hormuz, in what was seen as an immediate retaliatory move responding to the prior July 4 seizure of Iran’s Grace 1, since renamed Adrian Darya 1, off Gibraltar by UK Royal Marines.

 

British-flagged Stena Impero, via Reuters

Semi-official Fars News Agency said the legal process surrounding the ship’s capture had been concluded, though from the beginning British and Indian negotiators have been involved pressing for its release (given many of the crew were Indian citizens).

However, it’s still unclear as to when the newly freed tanker will commence its voyage out of Iran’s waters.

The ship’s owner, the company Stena Bulk, confirmed Monday the Stena Impero is still in the Persian Gulf port of Bandar Abbas where it’s been for the past two months.

It appears a good will gesture meant to thaw tensions most immediately with the UK, and also the US, given Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is set to meet with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Tuesday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.

 

IRGC forces previously filmed themselves fast roping down to the ship from a helicopter, and subsequently inspecting it. 

The crucial UN summit is expected to deal heavily with the recent aerial attacks on Aramco facilities, which knocked out up to half of the kingdom’s daily oil output in the days following the attack.

This even after on Sunday Johnson publicly blamed Iran for overseeing the Sept. 14 attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities.

“‘We think it very likely indeed that Iran was responsible,” said the PM on his way to New York. He agreed with Washington that western allies should “do more to defend Saudi”.

“We will be following that very closely and clearly, if we are asked, either by the Saudis or by the Americans, to have a role, then we will consider in what way we could be useful,” he told reporters, signaling the likelihood that the UK’s military would join any potential US strikes against Iran should the green light be given.

 end

6.Global Issues

MEXICO

Mexico has a strong export car business.  We now witness a total collapse in Mexico’s exports to the tune of a huge 12.7% fall last month

(zerohedge)

Global Carmageddon Continues: Mexico Total Vehicle Exports Crushed 12.7% In August

In short, it looks like all hell is breaking loose for the auto industry, which continues to show signs of a profound global recession.

First, we saw Chinese auto sales fall 14 times in the last 15 months under the weight of a trade war and a far overextended consumer. U.S. auto sales have followed suit and are expected to continue to fall 2.2% percent in the back half of 2019. General Motors has found itself dealing with its first UAW strike in 12 years and now, the warning bells are also starting to be audible from Mexico.

Mexico saw its total vehicle exports collapse 12.7% in August, a sharp drop for one of the biggest exporters of vehicles in the world, according to new data from FreightWaves. Companies like Ford, Honda, Fiat-Chrysler, Toyota, BMW, GM, Kia, Mazda, Nissan, Volkswagen, and Audi all have manufacturing plants in Mexico.

Manufacturers shipped 281,811 units in August compared to 322,779 in August 2018, according to data from the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) and the Mexican Association of the Automotive Industry (AMIA). AMIA President Eduardo Solís Sánchez is blaming the decline on “lower demand from the U.S., Canada and Brazil”. The three counties combined represent 90% of all Mexican auto exports.

While exports are still up 1.5% year to date, auto production has fallen almost 1% to 2.6 million units.

Solis said during a recent press conference: “There are brands that have indicated changes in their production lines [Nissan and Mazda] and others that after a drop in demand for the models have had to make adjustments. Even [Honda] said publicly that it will close a shift because of the low demand it is having for its HR-V model.”

Mazda was one of the hardest hit names, reporting that its export volume from its Mazda3 model plant dropped 66% in August. Audi reported that exports of its Q5 crossover fell 61%. Volkswagen exports from Mexico were down 38%, Fiat exports dropped 32% and Kia exports fell 23%.

Ford, Nissan and Honda reported increases in exports – 24.5%, 0.8% and 293%, respectively. However, Honda’s numbers were an aberration due to a flood that shut down the automaker’s plant last August.

Meanwhile, sales of cars manufactured in Mexico in the U.S. increased 10.5% to 1.6 million from 1.5 million the year prior.

Óscar Albin Santos, executive president of the National Auto Parts Industry in Mexico, still expects 3% growth in production and exports this year. We’ll undoubtedly check back in with this optimistic estimate as we head toward the end of the year.

He commented that the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement is “crucial” to give the auto industry certainty to continue making investments.

The USMCA is currently stalled in the U.S. Congress.

end
BIS
When these guys talk about the troubling effect on 17 trillion dollars worth of negative yielding debt you must take note.  They know that when most of the world goes into negative debt with the uSA closing in on zero zound all commodities including gold and silver go into backwardation and then the entire world’s finances blow up
(zerohedge)

‘Vaguely Troubling’: BIS Warns Of Financial Disaster Amid $17 Trillion In Negative-Yield Debt

When the central bank for central banks publishes its quarterly review, the world should take note.

Claudio Borio, Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the BIS, published the BIS Quarterly Review, September 2019on Sunday, revealing how the increasing acceptance of negative interest rates has reached “vaguely troubling” levels.

The statement comes after the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates to flight a global manufacturing slowdown — Borio said that the effectiveness of monetary policy is severely waning and might not be able to counter the global downturn, in other words, JPMorgan Global Composite PMI might print sub 50 for a considerable period of time.

“The room for monetary policy maneuver has narrowed further. Should a downturn materialize, monetary policy will need a helping hand, not least from a wise use of fiscal policy in those countries where there is still room for maneuver.”

The BIS, known as the ‘central bankers’ bank,’ said the recent easing by the Fed, ECB, and PBOC, has pushed yields lower across the world, contributing to the more than $17 trillion in negative-yielding tradeable bonds.

From Germany to Japan, 10-year government debt rates have plunged into negative territory, in recent times.

“Against this backdrop, sovereign bond yields naturally declined further, at times driven by the prospect of slower economic activity and heightened risks, at others by central banks’ reassuring easing measures. At one point, before the recent uptick in yields, the amount of sovereign and even corporate bonds trading at negative rates hit a new record, over USD 17 trillion according to certain estimates, equivalent to roughly 20% of world GDP. Indeed, some households, too, could borrow at negative rates. A growing number of investors are paying for the privilege of parting with their money. Even at the height of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-09, this would have been unthinkable. There is something vaguely troubling when the unthinkable becomes routine,” Borio warned.

Central bankers have already acknowledged that the flurry of recent rate cuts had continued to deplete their already-limited firepower – which would make their ability to fight a prolonged downturn less effective than ever before.

ECB President Mario Draghi said earlier this month that “it’s high time for the fiscal policy to take charge,” an indirect admittance that monetary policy has run its course.

“Almost all the things that you see in Europe, the creation of more than 11 million jobs in a short period of time, the recovery, the sustained growth for several quarters, were by and large produced by our monetary policy. There was very little else… Now it’s high time for the fiscal policy to take charge.”

Borio said global markets were alarmed this summer by the inversion of the US and other major countries’ bond yield curves.

He also warned about the corporate debt market, specifically major imbalances in leveraged loans known as collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) which “represent a clear vulnerability” to the global financial system.

And perhaps gold is ‘fearing’ the same “unthinkable” status quo that Borio warns of as it rises alongside negative rates…

END
Thomas Cook/
Over the weekend there were reports that without a financing deal, the world’s oldest travel company,  Thomas Cook would go under
(COURTESY GLOBE AND MAIL/REUTERS/KATE HOLTON )
AND SPECIAL THANKS TO DON J FOR SENDING THIS TO US

Britain-based Thomas Cook has 600,000 customers on holiday, meaning governments and insurance companies could be forced to step in and bring them home if the company goes out of business on Monday.

The British government has plans in place to bring home stranded holidaymakers if Thomas Cook goes out of business, an event that would likely spark chaotic scenes at resorts and airports around the world.

The bosses of the world’s oldest travel company were still meeting lenders and creditors in London on Sunday to try to thrash out a last-ditch deal to keep the company afloat.

The company’s board will then meet in the early evening to decide the company’s fate, with the business potentially going into administration in the early hours of Monday.

Thomas Cook, which runs hotels, resorts and airlines, has 600,000 customers on holiday, meaning governments and insurance companies could be forced to step in and bring them home if the company goes out of business.

Unions and the Opposition Labour Party have urged the government to stump up the cash, but the British Foreign Secretary appeared to dismiss that idea on Sunday.

“We don’t systematically step in with the taxpayers’ money when businesses are going under unless there’s a good strategic national interest,” Dominic Raab told the BBC, adding that plans were in place to prevent anyone from being stranded.

The company, founded in 1841, has been fighting for its survival after its lenders threatened to pull the plug on a rescue deal that has been months in the making.

Hurt by high levels of debt, online competition and geopolitical uncertainty, Thomas Cook needs to find another £200-million ($330-million) on top of a £900-million package it had already agreed, to see it through the winter months when it has less cash coming in and needs to pay hotels for summer services.

That has sparked fears among customers on social media that some hotels, yet to be reimbursed by Thomas Cook, could ask holidaymakers to leave if the company collapses.

Some British tourists were briefly detained in a hotel in Tunisia by staff who wanted to know if they had been paid. The Thomas Cook customers have since left and flown home, according to their social-media postings.

At the meeting on Sunday, the company was asking its lenders to restructure or lower their demands. It has also asked credit-card companies to release £50-million that they hold as collateral against the company’s bookings.

The company’s largest shareholder, China’s Fosun, was due to take a central role in the restructuring.

A person familiar with the situation said there was still a possibility they could strike a deal. The person declined to be named owing to the sensitivity of the situation.

Were Thomas Cook to fail, it would spark the biggest peacetime repatriation effort in British history.

The government and the aviation regulator have drawn up a plan to step in and use other airlines to bring Britons home if needed. The person familiar with the situation put the cost of that move at around £600-million.

On top of the British holidaymakers, some 460,000 other customers are also abroad, with many coming from Germany or Scandinavia.

An official from Germany said under that country’s rules, it would fall to insurance companies to help get customers home.

Condor, a German airline owned by Thomas Cook, said in a statement that its parent company was doing everything it could to secure fresh funds. “Negotiations with all key stakeholders are complex and ongoing. The Condor flights are currently being operated on a regular basis.”

News of Thomas Cook’s potential demise has sparked alarm not just across the holiday resorts and poolside bars where customers are using social media to obtain updates, but among suppliers and future customers who are losing faith.

That is draining the company of the liquidity it needs to keep operating and ramping up the pressure on one of Britain’s oldest and much-loved companies.

According to figures from the Britain-based aviation consultancy IBA Group, all but a handful of its 116 aircraft are leased rather than owned directly. So far, there are no visible signs leasing companies are demanding their planes back, preferring to sit out the refinancing talks.

“Hi Annie, I understand your father might be unsettled by all the news surrounding Thomas Cook and our business recently, but our flight operations continue to operate as normal,” the company said in response to one worried customer.

Mr. Raab, the Foreign Secretary, also sought to reassure holidaymakers that they would not end up stuck overseas.

“We … hope that it [Thomas Cook] can continue but in any event, as you would expect, we’ve got the contingency planning in place to make sure that in any worst-case scenario we can support all those who might otherwise be stranded,” he said.

At the board meeting, the company will have to decide whether in the short term it has enough cash to pay its debts, and whether it has a reasonable prospect of paying its liabilities in six to 12 months’ time, which is predicated on its securing a deal.

At the earlier meeting, the lenders will have to decide whether they want to continue supporting a company that has 19 million customers a year, spread across 16 countries.

While it once pioneered package holidays and mass tourism, in recent years it has struggled to pay the interest on its £1.7-billion debt, while navigating events such as a coup in Turkey, a heatwave in Europe, fluctuating oil prices and the aggressive summer pricing of low-cost airlines such as Ryanair and easyJet.

END
Thomas Cook//Monday morning..they go bust
Thomas Cook collapses after rescue talks fails and that sends 650,000 travelers stranded
(zerohedge)

UK’s Thomas Cook Collapses After Rescue Talks Fail; 650,000 Travelers Stranded

Becoming the latest European travel company to fail and leave its customers stranded (who can forget about the collapse of Iceland’s Wow Air back in March?), 178-year-old Thomas Cook collapsed after failing to secure a deal with its creditors, leaving the British government to step in and rescue the as many as 600,000 customers who are reportedly now looking for a ride home.

Thomas Cook CEO Peter Fankhauser apologized to customers “following a decision of the board late last night, a British government receiver has been appointed early this morning…we have not been able to secure a deal to save our business...I know that this outcome will cause a lot of anxiety, stress and disruption.”

Fankhauser explained that while a “deal had been largely agreed, an additional facility requested in the last few days of negotiations presented a challenge that ultimately proved insurmountable.” The company, weighed down by debt, said Friday that it was looking for $369 million in financing over the weekend to avoid going under on Monday.

At the time, the company had a debt burden of £1.25 billion and warned that Brexit-related uncertainties had hurt bookings for summer holiday travel. The firm has also struggled with increased competition from online travel-booking websites like Expedia.

Chinese conglomerate Fosun, Thomas Cook’s biggest shareholder, had considered contributing $560 million to bail out the company earlier this year, but ultimately demurred for reasons that aren’t clear.

All bookings made through the company have been invalidated, the company said. It typically runs hotels, resorts, airlines and cruises for 19 million customers a year in 16 countries.

Sky News

@SkyNews

BREAKING: “We have not been able to secure a deal to save our business” – Chief executive of Thomas Cook Group, Peter Fankhauser apologises to the company’s ‘heartbroken’ staff and customers.

Get the latest on the collapse here: http://po.st/Pqzo6H

Embedded video

Shares in European airlines and tourism-related companies climbed on the news, with the Stoxx 600 Travel & Leisure Index becoming one of 3 sectors gaining as the broader European share gauge declined.

The UK government is now scrambling to get all of its citizens home safely in what some have called “the largest peacetime repatriation effort in British history,” according to the Sydney Morning Herald. The UK Civil Aviation Authority said Monday that it would be working with the government to bring more than 150,000 British customers home over the next couple of weeks. The UK government runs an insurance program that ensures travelers can return home if a British tour operator goes under while they’re traveling, which is exactly what’s happening with Thomas Cook.

CAA Chief Richard Moriarty told the FT that it had launched “what is effectively one of the UK’s largest airlines, involving a fleet of aircraft secured from around the world.”

“The nature and scale of the operation means that unfortunately some disruption will be inevitable.”

Though the company was reportedly still selling vacation packages late last night and assuring its customers that all flights would continue as normal, passengers waiting at the airport were the first to learn that all operations would be cancelled.

Set to depart from Gatwick Airport, Thomas Cook flight 508 to Dalaman, Turkey was abruptly cancelled early Monday, the first in a string of cancellations at UK and global airports that will ultimately impact one million vacationers, according to the Independent.

Thomas Cook’s collapse resembles that of UK carrier Monarch two years ago. but Thomas Cook is a much bigger firm, and cleaning up this mess will be a much bigger headache for the CAA. Meanwhile, analysts at Bernstein suspect other tour operators could collapse, which would put the market into a bind.

The modern Thomas Cook Group formed in 2007 when the UK’s MyTravel merged with the privately-held Germany-based Thomas Cook to create a tour-company behemoth and promising to hasten consolidation in the tour operating industry.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

Conflicting stories sent oil higher and then lower.  First a Wall Street Journal report stated that it would take Saudi Arabia 8 moths to fix their hit on Aramco but that was refuted later and saying that they would be restored by the end of the month

 

(zerohedge)

Oil Pumps, Then Dumps After Conflicting Reports Over Saudi Recovery

Crude futures gapped dramatically higher at the open overnight, WTI back above $59, after WSJ headlines over the weekend that Saudi Arabia’s recovery could take “eight months” rather than weeks.

But, prices are tumbling this morning following Reuters reports denying this ‘news’, claiming that Aramco will succeed in restoring its lost production by the end of this month.


However, in context, prices are still significantly higher than before the refinery attack.

Additionally, this morning’s dismal German PMIs did not help matters on the global demand side.

“It’s tug of war between weak demand fundamentals and heightened geopolitical risks,” said Jens Naervig Pedersen, a senior analyst at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen.

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0982 DOWN .0030 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.43 DOWN 0.089 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2446   DOWN   0.0025  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3289 UP .0037 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 30 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.09882 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 27.37 POINTS OR 0.98% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 213.27 POINTS OR 0.81%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,22%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 213.27 POINTS OR 0.81%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 27,27 POINTS OR 0.98%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 32% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 34.64  POINTS OR 0.16%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1519.80

silver:$18.40-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.69% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.13 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 98.72 UP 21 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.17% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.21%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.15%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.83 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 68 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.58% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.41% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0989  DOWN     .0022 or22 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.48 DOWN .039 OR YEN UP 4  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2426 down 45 POUND DOWN 45  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 24 basis points to 1.3276

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY// 7.1180    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.1153  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7269 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.21%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 1.69 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.14 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.66 UP 15  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 13.08  0.32%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 125.68 POINTS OR 1.01%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 60.02 POINTS 1.05%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 85.40 POINTS or 0.93%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 223.51 POINTS OR 1.01%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 58.19 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 64.19 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.82  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.17 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 17 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.58 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  58.48//

 

 

BRENT :  64.48

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.72  no change…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.17  up one basis pt..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.10992 ( DOWN 20   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.5 DOWN .016 (YEN UP 2 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.62 UP 12 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2435 DOWN 37  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7221

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.85   UP 0.13 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 13 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3256 DOWN 7 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.1180  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.1127 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.58%

 

The Dow closed UP 14.92 POINTS OR 0.06%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 5.21 POINTS OR 0.06%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  14.91 CLOSED DOWN .41

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.132%//libor dropping like a stone AGAIN

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Slip, Silver Rips, Yield Curve Dips After Global Macro Data Dumps

South Korean exports collapse most since 2009… European PMIs were ugly (Germany worst since 2013)… US Services PMI Employment contracts most since 2009… but apart from that, trade-talks might or might not be going well or terribly.

This was the worst global macro data disappointment day since May and pushed it back into contraction

Source: Bloomberg

A late day buying panic made China’s stock slump look a little better, but it was ugly out there…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks plunged on the dismal PMIs and never bounced…

Source: Bloomberg

European bond yields cratered today (10Y BTPs -10bps)

Source: Bloomberg

US equity markets would not be held back by all the global (including their own) data dumps as three hours of dovish Bullard headlines finally ignited some momentum in the last hour… but that spike faded quickly into the close (only The Dow managed gains)…

 

Futures show the chaos best, but we note that markets remain notably lower since the farm visits were canceled…

 

“Most Shorted” stocks down 5 days in a row – longest streak since March 2019…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Algos desperately pushed for S&P 500 to get back to 3,000…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Momo managed gains out of the gate but faded as the day wore on with a bid for value…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Cyclicals started off rough but were bid off the lows and after Europe closed, the machines rotated from defensives to cyclicals…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Netflix was a bloodbath (back in the red for 2019) – despite headlines about The Emmys…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Leaving FANG Stocks at a key support level…

 

\

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were volatile intraday, opening higher, crashing on EU PMIs, tumbling on US PMIs, then ramping back for the rest of the day…

 

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields down 6 days in a row (after 8 days up in a row)…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Despite The Fed’s Jim Bullard claiming otherwise, the UST yield curve inversion is getting worse once again…

Source: Bloomberg

The curve has been inverted for 85 days (bar one)…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar ended the day modestly higher (spiking on EUR weakness on PMIs, then fading)…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan ended the day higher after tumbling overnight…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos are down from Friday’s close (not helped by some chaos today with a dump, pump, and slow dump)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin is back below $10,000 (and flash-crashed today)…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were all higher led by a huge surge in Silver…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil traded chaotically intraday to end unchanged after conflicting headlines about how long before Saudi production is back online (a week or eight months!)

 

Source: Bloomberg

Silver exploded higher – its 3rd best day since Nov 2018… (the other 2 were also in September)

 

Source: Bloomberg

Silver dramatically outperformed gold…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, the San Francisco Fed notes that, according to new market-based estimates, the probability of a return to the lower bound by the end of 2021 is about 24%. This is roughly in line with other survey-based and model-based estimates of zero lower bound risk. In recent months, the market-based measure of lower bound risk has increased markedly. And traders are increasingly betting in NIRP being here…

 

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Saturday:  A clueless Fed has no idea of why we had a repo panic.  However in further commentaries you will find out why

(zerohedge)

A Clueless New York Fed Is Examining Why Banks With Excess Cash Failed To Halt Repo Panic

When it comes to occasional (or chronic) dollar shortages, and the plumbing of the overnight lending market, which as everyone knows suffered a spectacular heart attack early this week when the overnight repo rate soared to 10%, the New York Fed and its open markets desk, is the authority on any potential plumbing blockages. Yet it now appears that the most important regional Fed when it comes to maintaining market stability, is just as clueless as the rest of us as to why the repo market froze up. sending funding rates to never before seen highs.

In an interview with the FT, New York Fed president John Williams, who earlier this year unexpectedly fired not only the head of the NY Fed’s markets desk, Simon Potter, arguably the most important trader in the world, manning the world’s most important trading desk but also the second most important person at the NY Fed’s “Plunge Protection Team”, the head of the Financial Services Group, Richard Dzina, said that the New York Fed is examining “why banks with excess cash failed to lend to the overnight money market, following a week that revealed cracks in the US’s financial plumbing.”

Specifically, Williams questioned the hesitancy of the large, liquid banks, saying “the thing we need to be focused on today is not so much the level of reserves [held at the Fed]. It’s how does the market function.”

What is troubling about that statement is that it is precisely the level of reserves that the New York Fed should be focusing on – after all, that would justify the repo deep freeze as it has now been abundantly clear that the US financial system will need about $400BN more in reserves, but not how the market functions: if anything, that’s the one thing the NY Fed should know by now; yet the fact that the career economist Williams admits that the Fed is clueless about the market plumbing, is extremely concerning.

 

As noted earlier today, following several days of oversubscribed overnight repo operations to ease liquidity pressure in the market, on Friday the Fed announced it would also offer up to $90bn in two-week long loans to further reduce funding pressures during the notorious quarter-end period when liquidity tends to collapse.

Yet while this action will likely further ease the stress in the funding market, the fingerpointing has begun, with market participants claiming that the week’s volatility arose from a shortage of cash in the financial system, which in turn was the result of the unwinding of the Fed’s post-financial crisis intervention. In response, Fed officials have said it’s not their fault, and instead have focused on the role played by banks, or rather the role banks with excess liquidity did not play but stepping into fund their liquidity-challenged peers.

Specifically, Williams and Lorie Logan, senior vice-president in the markets group at the New York Fed, said officials were looking at why cash failed to move from banks’ accounts at the Fed into the repo market, where banks and investors borrow money in exchange for Treasuries to cover short-term funding needs.

The irony, of course, is that it is precisely the Fed’s job to know why money isn’t moving from point A to point B; admitting its cluelessness will not only reignite questions about why Williams fired the two most experienced traders at the Fed, but also why the Fed knows no more than the rest of us about what is going on in the interbank market.

Logan pointed to the concentration of excess cash at a small number of banks as one potential issue.

“Reserves are concentrated, the excess reserves relative to the minimum level each bank is demanding is concentrated,” she said. “And the key question is how those reserves, as the level was coming down, would get redistributed, and how smooth that redistribution process would be.”

Almost as if the Fed had no idea what the adverse consequences of its unprecedented actions would be…

To be sure, Fed officials expected some pressure in the market this week as a result of corporate tax payments and Treasury settlements, which would drain cash out of the system. As it monitored short-term lending markets, the New York Fed paid particular attention to the amount of reserves available. It did not expect the general collateral repo rate to explode from 2.5% to 10% in a matter of minutes.

Logan said the expectation had been that as repo rates rose, banks would withdraw excess cash held at the Fed and lend it into the repo market to earn the higher rate of interest. Instead, the New York Fed had to step in to provide that cash as banks remained on the sidelines as banks were terrified to enter the repo market.

Which in turn begs the question: just what are the big, well-funded banks so afraid to share some of their liquidity with their less fortunate peers? What do they know that we – and the NY Fed – don’t? And tied to that, why did Margaret McConnell, the NY Fed employee tasked with foreseeing every apocalyptic outcome  no matter how improbable, fail to anticipate this outcome?

One person who may have an answer is Citi’s Matt King, whose latest presentation – a bear market in trust – explains everything that is wrong with the current financial system.

END

I guess when I say it nobody would listen, but when Goldman Sachs gives an ominous warning about the stock market chaos all should listen
(courtesy Michael Snyder)

Goldman Sachs Has Just Issued An Ominous Warning About Stock Market Chaos In October

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Are we about to see U.S. financial markets go crazy?  That is what Goldman Sachs seems to think, and it certainly wouldn’t be the first time that great financial chaos has been unleashed during the month of October.  When the stock market crashed in October 1929, it started the worst economic depression that we have ever witnessed.  In October 1987, the largest single day percentage decline in U.S. stock market history rocked the entire planet.  And the nightmarish events of October 2008 set the stage for a “Great Recession” that we still haven’t fully recovered from.  So could it be possible that something similar may happen in October 2019? 

According to CNBC, Goldman Sachs is warning that the stock market could soon “go crazy again”…

For investors taking a breather from the chaos in August, buckle up as the market is about to go crazy again, Goldman Sachs warned.

Wall Street is now inches away from reclaiming its record highs, but a rockier ride could be around the corner as stock volatility has been 25% higher in October on average since 1928, according to Goldman. Big price swings have been seen in each major stock benchmark and sector in October over the past 30 years, with technology and health care being the most volatile groups, Goldman said.

Goldman derivatives strategist John Marshall is the man behind this new warning, and he believes that there are some fundamental reasons why the month of October is often so volatile…

“We believe high October volatility is more than just a coincidence,” John Marshall, equity derivatives strategist at Goldman, said in a note Friday. “We believe it is a critical period for many investors and companies that manage performance to calendar year-end.”

And even though October hasn’t arrived yet, we are already starting to see some things that we haven’t witnessed since the last financial crisis.

For example, the Federal Reserve had not intervened in the repo market since 2008, but this week the liquidity crunch was so bad that the Fed felt forced to conduct emergency overnight repurchase agreement operations on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

And then on Friday the Fed announced that it will continue to conduct emergency interventions “on a daily basis for the next three weeks”

The New York Federal Reserve Bank said Friday it will inject billions into the US financial plumbing on a daily basis for the next three weeks in an effort to prevent a spike in short-term interest rates.

The Fed will offer up to $75 billion a day in repurchase agreements — exchanging secure assets for cash for very short periods — through October 10, it said in a statement.

In addition, it will offer three 14-day “repo” operations of at least $30 billion each.

In essence, the “plumbing” of our financial system has gotten all jammed up, and calling out Roto-Rooter is simply not going to get the job done.

Of course Fed officials are trying to assure us that this is no big deal and that they have everything under control.

But if all this is no big deal, why haven’t they had to conduct such emergency interventions for the last 11 years?

And this comes at a time when the deterioration of the U.S. economy appears to be accelerating.  In fact, on Friday St. Louis Fed President James Bullard publicly admitted that the U.S. manufacturing industry appears to already be in a recession

The US manufacturing sector “already appears in recession” and overall economic growth is expected to slow “in the near horizon,” St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank president James Bullard said on Friday, explaining why he dissented at a recent Fed meeting and wanted a deeper, half-percentage-point rate cut.

That is a stunning admission, because normally Fed officials try very hard to maintain the narrative that everything is wonderful because they are doing such a great job of manipulating the economy.

The American people as a whole are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the economy as well, and Gallup just released some very alarming numbers

Americans’ confidence in the economy has become less rosy this month as Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index fell to +17 from August’s +24 reading, marking the lowest level since the government shutdown ended in January.

At the same time, the public is evenly divided over the likelihood of a recession in the next year. The current expectation of a recession is nine points higher than it was in October 2007, just two months before the Great Recession began but slightly below a February 2001 reading, one month before that eight-month-long recession.

Every economic indicator that we have is telling us that big trouble is heading our way, but most Americans are partying instead of preparing.

U.S. financial markets have never been more primed for a crash than they are at this moment, and so many of the exact same patterns that we witnessed just prior to the last recession are happening again right now.

Over the past few months, my wife and I have felt a sense of urgency unlike anything that we have ever felt before.  You may have noticed a difference in our tone and in the types of stories that we have been sharing.  Everything that we have been doing has been leading up to this.  The time of “the perfect storm” is here, and most Americans won’t understand what is happening.

The storm clouds are looming and disaster could strike at any time.  This is one of the most critical times in the history of our nation, and most Americans are completely unprepared for what is going to happen next.

end
This one is a biggy!! Simon Potter was the former head trader at the NY Fed and was surprisingly dumped by head honcho Williams (who has no experience whatsoever in the handling of the “plumbing system” at the New York Fed).  Potter has now commented that the Fed has to buy  initially at least another 400 billion dollars of POMO  (QE4) to unclog the clot. The Fed’s balance sheet must rise by 750 billion dollars over two years and the  excess reserves at the banking system must initially rise from 1.4 trillion dollars to 1.8 trillion dollars.
Simon Potter/zerohedge)

Former Head Of Plunge Protection Team Says Fed Has To Buy More Debt

We have lift off.

Last Wednesday, as stocks hit session lows amid fears that the Fed was so polarized on further easing and with the Fed’s dot plot suggesting no more cuts this year that odds of further rate cuts in 2019 dropped precipitously, Chair Powell catalyzed a dramatic rebound in risk assets when during his press conference  he said that “It is certainly possible that we’ll need to resume the organic growth of the balance sheet sooner than we thought.

One day later, with the Fed engaging in overnight repos to unfreeze the clogged up plumbing in the repo market, the release of the Fed’s weekly H.4.1 statement confirmed that Powell was spot on: the Fed had indeed resumed the growth of the Fed’s balance sheet “sooner than we thought.” Whether or not said growth is “organic” is the topic of a separate discussion, but as expected the week’s rolling $75 billion overnight repo facility meant that the Fed’s balance sheet posted its first substantial increase for the first time since the end of QE3 in 2014, rising by $75 billion to $3.845 trillion.

 

The offsetting balance sheet liability was the Treasury General Account, or the cash the US Treasury holds at the Fed, which soared by a whopping $119 billion in one week, rising to $303 billion as of September 18, which increase frequent readers will recall, was precisely the catalyst we said at the start of August would precipitate a dollar shortage, and unleash a tantrum in the repo market. That’s precisely what happened.

Incidentally, we also said that since both overnight and term repos would be insufficient to resolve a problem that was ultimately a function of too few reserves in the system, that this would culminate with a return of open market purchases of securities by the Fed, i.e. QE. This, we now know, is what Goldman also now believes will happen some time around the November FOMC, with the bank predicting a roughly $15bn/month rate of permanent OMOs, enough to support trend growthof the balance sheet plus some additional padding over the first two years to increase the size of the balance sheet by $150bn, restoring the reserve buffer and eliminating the current need for temporary OMOs. That strategy would result in balance sheet growth of roughly $180bn/year and net UST purchases by the Fed (the sum of the red and grey bars) of roughly $375bn/year over the next couple of years.

Ok, but a conspiracy theory blog (first) and then Goldman Sachs (eventually) predicting a return of POMO/QE does not mean it will happen, right? Perhaps… but throw in the highly respected former head of the NY Fed’s open markets desk (and plunge protection team) predicting that bond purchases are coming, and one can be certain that it’s just months, if not weeks, before QE is back (just as we said last week).

Speaking during a Friday conference call hosted by Bank of America for its clients, Simon Potter who oversaw the NY Fed’s trading desk until he was fired in May, echoed what we have said for the past week, namely that the actions taken so far to normalize this turmoil in money markets would not be enough to keep conditions calm, and warmed tjat fresh debt purchases will be needed.

Potter, quoted by Bloomberg, cautioned that the Fed “may have to expand the central bank’s balance sheet through outright purchases of U.S. Treasury securities, to ensure stable liquidity conditions at the end of the quarter as well as at year-end.”

Potter’s recommendation followed a tumultuous week of upheavals in money markets which saw overnight repo rates soar as much as 10%, and pulled the Fed’s benchmark rate outside its target range. In response, the NY Fed announced on Friday that it would offer term repo agreements over the upcoming quarter-end, which would allow financial institutions to borrow cash from the Fed either overnight or for two-week periods, secured by Treasury collateral, and which would provide much-needed funding during the critical quarter end period when bank funding needs tend to surge by hundreds of billions of dollars. The question is whether the Fed’s makeshift term repos – three for $30 billion all maturing well in October – will be sufficient to meet the liquidity needs of the US financial system.

To Potter, the answer is no, because in his view the core problem has to do with a shortage of reserves in the system (why there would be a shortage when there is currently $1.4 trillion in “excess reserves” will be something we cover in a subsequent post, although as we noted previously, the Fed will urgently need to elevate the level of reserves to at least $1.8 trillion to normalize funding markets).

This recommendation for the Fed to resume open market bond purchases comes from the person who is perhaps most intimately familiar with the plumbing of the US financial system: as a reminder, the 21 year Fed veteran served as head of the Fed’s markets desk from 2012 until May 2019, when he was unexpectedly fired by the NY Fed’s new president, career economist John Williams, who as consensus came to realize, is completely clueless about the functioning of markets and whose recent bloviating prompted the New York Fed to issue a statement refuting what he had recently said to avoid sparking a crash by a “disappointed” market. Even Bloomberg admits that “the departure of Potter… raised concerns about Williams — a widely-respected monetary economist — because of his relative lack of experience with financial markets. The New York Fed has yet to announce Potter’s successor.”

While virtually nobody, except this website and a few others, were discussing the return to POMO as recently as a month ago, it is now “consensus” that the Fed has to resume POMO/QE, and even Bloomberg now writes that this week’s repo turmoil “raised questions about whether the Fed went too far in removing cash from the financial system, and focused attention on when the central bank would begin resuming balance-sheet expansion to keep pace with the needs of a growing economy.”

Of course, with first Goldman and then someone as “erudite” as Potter chiming in to clue his former boss, John Williams, what has to be done, we expect it is now only a matter of time before POMO is back. The only question is whether the Fed will ram it through no questions asked, or if – just like 2008 – the Fed will first create an “event” that has Congress begging (on one knee a la Hank Paulson… if not the president, after all Trump has already been urging Powell to launch “some QE“), the Fed to do everything in its power to stabilize the financial system. We’ll find out in the coming days.

end
Part ii/ The Repo mess
Another biggy!! Here zero hedge describes the Fed’s 1/4 trillion dollars in reserves and defines reverses as basically cash.  What they all want to know is why the cash did not move into the Repo or Money Market which has perfect collateral.  The answer is that 3 or so banks are probably bust and they need constant money to keep them afloat  (e.g. Deutsche bank/Danske?/HSBC?)
(zerohedge)

These Are The Banks Where The Fed’s $1.4 Trillion In Reserves Are Parked

Over the past few days there has been much confusion over the repocalpyse that shook the overnight funding market, and just as much confusion over the definition of reserves which some banks were unwilling to part with, other banks were desperate for, and in the end both Powell and the former head of the NY Fed’s markets desk admitted that Quantitative Tightening had been taken too far, and the total amount of reserves in the system was too low and will be increased (welcome back QE).

Yet while the book has yet to be written on the causes for last week’s shocking move higher in repo rates, which sent general collateral as high as 10%, a record print in a time of $1.4 trillion in excess reserves, we can shed some clarity on the definition of “reserves.” While there is a universe of semantic gymnastics when it comes to explaining what reserves are, the  most basic definition is quite simply “cash”, however not cash in circulation but rather cash (and deposits) held in the bank’s account with the Federal Reserve (which the US central bank’s name comes from).

This means that there should be a de facto identity between the total amount of cash in the US banking system and the amount of total (minimum required plus excess) reserves. Sure enough, if only looks at the Fed’s weekly H.8 statement, which lists the “Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States“, and adds across the various banking cash aggregates in the US, what one gets is precisely the total amount of reserves.

This is seen in the chart below, which adds across the weekly cash for both small and large domestic commercial banks operating in the US (blue and red shaded areas) as well as foreign commercial banks (yellow shaded) operating in the US. The black line, meanwhile, shows the total amount of reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks. By definition these two numbers have to be virtually identical, and sure enough, they are.

 

Why is the above important?

Because as the FT reported on Friday as part of its interview with the NY Fed’s new, hapless and confused career-economist president, John Williams (who back in May inexplicably fired the man most intimately familiar with the plumbing of the US financial system, the NY Fed’s market desk head Simon Potter), the NY Fed president said that it was “looking at why cash failed to move from banks’ accounts at the Fed into the repo market, where banks and investors borrow money in exchange for Treasuries to cover short-term funding needs.

Additionally, as Lorie Logan, senior vice-president in the markets group told the FT, “Reserves are concentrated, the excess reserves relative to the minimum level each bank is demanding is concentrated. And the key question is how those reserves, as the level was coming down, would get redistributed, and how smooth that redistribution process would be.”

In short, the NY Fed is looking at the banks that comprise the three aggregate levels above, and is trying to figure out why they did not hand out their cash to other banks that were in desperate need for liquidity, and why said reserves were so “concentrated”, i.e., sticky, so as to precipitate a funding crisis which was only halted when the Fed stepped in.

Alas, John Williams did not elaborate, so we will do so for him: the Fed is not only trying to figure out why banks with excess cash/reserves parked at the Fed did not offer it to their more liquidity-challenged peers, but why they refused to do so even though any such loan would be perfectly collateralized by money-good securities such as Treasuries, MBS and Agency debt and they refused to do it when repo rates had soared as high as 10%, an unprecedented arb to the Fed’s interest rate target range.

One possible explanation: the banks that should have lent out cash did not do so because they were afraid that i) the borrower would not be able to return the cash on the next day and ii) any potential failure in the banking system would lead to a collapse of the repo system, potentially making their ultra-safe collateral, impaired if not worthless. Hence, their desire to hold on to cash… and dear life.

In any event, if Williams really wants to find out why banks failed to step in and prevent last week’s repocalypse, he should start with the banks that are laid out in the chart above- and maybe he should focus first and foremost on the foreign banks that currently have $521 billion in cash parked at the Fed, on which they – the foreignbanks – are collecting 1.80% in annual interest.

And once the NY Fed is done with this exercise, it may want to quickly find out the flip side of the equation: which banks were so desperate for liquidity last week they not only risked being seen using the Fed’s overnight repo operation, which in this day and age of $1.4 trillion in excess reserves carries the same stigma as using the Discount Window in the days before the Lehman failure, but did so by oversubscribing the Fed’s $75 billion repo facility for 3 days straight. In short, one or more banks are in dire need of just over $75 billion in liquidity, and the Fed better figure out who they are… before some financial reporter does, prints their name for the whole world to see and starts what may soon be the biggest bank run since the financial crisis.

end
Part iii/the Repo mess/
And now Michael Harnett of Bank of America agrees. The 1.4 trillion dollar excess reserves at the banks plus the 3.8 tirilli dollars of bond purchases by the Fed (its balance sheet) is not enough. They need a huge $400 billion POMO plus purchases of $360 billion of bonds to normalize things.\(zerohedge)

It’s Official: Bank of America Now Calls What Is Coming “QE4”

One of the reasons for the sharply hawkish initial response to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting – one which saw both the dollar and yields spike – is that as we pointed out just before Powell’s statement, in the hours ahead of Powell’s press conference, Wall Street consensus quickly shifted with many expecting the Fed to announce some form of permanent repo facility or restart of POMO (or QE for those who call a spade a spade) to push reserves back to a level where the funding market is stable. This, as we showed with the following chart, would require some $400 billion in new reserves for the FF-IOER spread to normalize.

To the disappointment of many, Powell did not do that, and instead, the FOMC realigned both interest on excess reserves (IOER) and the reverse repo (RRP) rate lower by 5bp, resulting in 30bp cuts to both rates. Powell also noted during his press conference that the Fed would use temporary open market operations (OMOs) “for the foreseeable future” to address pressures in funding markets.

However, and the reason why stocks shot up just before 3pm ET on Wednesday, is that that’s when Powell added that “it’s possible that we’ll need to resume the organic growth of the balance sheet, earlier than we thought. … We’ll be looking at this carefully in coming days and taking it up at the next meeting” in late October. Said otherwise, while the Fed may not have announced QE4 yesterday, but it will likely announce it in the very near future.

 

And while the Fed also moved to broadly expand its balance sheet late on Friday by preannouncing continued daily open market repo operations, together with at least three, $30 billion term repos to ease funding conditions around quarter end, which confirms that the rebound in the Fed’s balance sheet – the first in almost five years – is anything but temporary…

… we got two more hints that bond purchases are coming in the very near term when first Goldman, and then Simon Potter, the former head of the NY Fed’s market desk, signaled that the Fed will have to buy more debt, potentially as early as November.

As a reminder, Goldman now assumes a roughly $15bn/month rate of permanent OMOs, enough to support trend growth of the balance sheet plus some additional padding over the first two years to increase the size of the balance sheet by $150bn, restoring the reserve buffer and eliminating the current need for temporary OMOs.

And while Simon Potter did not lay out a timeframe for his prediction, he agreed that the Fed “may have to expand the central bank’s balance sheet through outright purchases of U.S. Treasury securities, to ensure stable liquidity conditions at the end of the quarter as well as at year-end.”

The bottom line from the flurry of events which took place in the last week is that after just under two years of Quantitative Tightening, which shrank the Fed’s balance sheet from $4.5 trillion to $3.8 trillion, the current level of liquidity in the financial system is once again insufficient.

Which addresses the question that everyone has been quietly asking: if the current level of reserves, at roughly $1.4 trillion as broken out by bank cash levels which we discussed last night, is too low…

… then what is a sufficient level of reserves?

That’s the question addressed by JPMorgan’s “other” quant, Nick Panagirtzoglou in his latest weekly Flows and Liquidity letter, in which he writes that “the liquidity effects from the Fed’s balance sheet shrinkage have been manifesting themselves over the past year via a reduction in both broad or non-bank liquidity and narrow or banking sector liquidity” and reminds readers that recently he also warned that that “liquidity will likely continue to tighten in the US banking system even after the Fed stops its balance sheet shrinkage, and, as a result, in order to stop this liquidity tightening from advancing further, the Fed may need to start open market operations sooner rather than later to inject reserves into the US banking system.

As we said last week (and above): QE, which until recently nobody thought was possible again, is now a foregone conclusion.

So how does the JPM quant justify his view that more POMOs are just around the corner? Largely the same way as BofA, by depicting the sensitivity of the Fed Funds rate to the level of reserves. The chart below plots the effective Fed Funds rate over the Fed’s policy rate i.e. the IOER or Interest On Excess Reserves, with Panagirtzoglou noting that “the steepening of this relationship over the past year is consistent with the idea that the level of reserves has been shifting towards tighter territory.  When reserves are abundant, the line in Figure 3 should be relatively flat, i.e. any change in reserves should have little impact on interest rates, which was the case when reserves were above $2tr. But when liquidity conditions become tighter and reserve drainage starts “biting”, the sensitivity of interest rates to changes in reserves increases.” In other words, and as the chart at the top showed, “the steeper this sensitivity, the more the tightening in liquidity conditions.

The chart above suggests that the steepening (i.e., tightening) began when the level of reserves started falling below the $2tr mark in the middle of 2018 and intensified since last December as reserves fell below the $1.75tr mark. This  steepening of the sensitivity of interest rates to reserve changes became more acute more recently, when reserves fell below $1.6tr in April and below $1.4tr this past week. The response of interbank rates, both secured and unsecured has been forcefully as shown in the chart below demonstrating the relationship between Fed Funds and IOER…

… and also the chart showing the spread between SOFR and IOER.

The first chart above, depicting the gap between the IOER and the Fed Funds rate, shows that the increases over the past week’s reserve drainage episode were more pronounced than last April’s episode, consistent with the idea that we are currently at a steeper part of the reserve demand curve than last April, according to JPM.

The second chart shows a similar tightening trend in the secured interbank market, in this case measured by the SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate), a broad measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight collateralized by Treasury securities that include all trades in the Broad General Collateral Rate plus bilateral Treasury repos. The secured overnight interbank market is much bigger than the unsecured one. But what is troubling is that secured overnight interbank market rates are more volatile, as the experience of this past week reminded us. Here too the increases in SOFR over the past week’s reserve drainage episode were more pronounced that last April’s episode, consistent with the idea that we are currently at a steeper part of the reserve demand curve than last April (it also begs the question just how valid of a replacement to LIBOR will SOFR be, if its volatility is so high as to rattle the hundreds of trillions in floating-rate debt linked currently to Libor and, started in 2020, to SOFR).

One final observation: the ratio of reserves to banking system assets has collapsed over the past five years to its lowest level since the end of 2009 i.e. a ten year low… although of course, prior to that it was 0% so this is only a financial crisis artifact, in large part sprung by changes to the regulatory regime demanding banks hold on to much more reserves.

The bottom line here is clear: despite $1.4 trillion in “excess” reserves, despite a $3.8 trillion Fed balance sheet, the liquidity in the system is not enough.

So what is the proper level of liquidity measured by bank reserves?

To answer that question, Panigirtzoglou asks rhetorically, what if the current ratio of 7.9% is too low and a ratio of around 10% seen at the beginning of the year is more appropriate? His answera 10% ratio would imply a level of reserves of $1.75tr, $360bn above current levels,which is in line with our calculation of $400 billion more reserves needed. This, to the JPM analyst, “is an important decision the Fed would have to make in its October meeting”, as well as the following question: “Is there currently a need for an upfront and permanent injection of reserves, before dealing with the longer term issue of $160bn per annum balance sheet expansion perhaps needed over time due to banknotes in circulation and the organic expansion of the banking system?

As of this moment, Bank of America, Nomura, JPMorgan, Goldman and, last but not least, Simon Potter are all convinced that there is now a need for an “upfront and permanent injection of reserves.” Which means it is just a matter of time before QE4 – as Bank of America’s CIO Michael Hartnett now openly calls it – arrives, and pushes central bank balance sheets to new all time highs, to wit:.

QE4: Fed makes it 43 rate cuts YTD (751 since Lehman); ECB QE (€20bn/m from Nov’19) + Fed liquidity operations (est. $400bn next 12-months) = new high in G5 central bank balance sheet by Apr’20 (prior peak was $16.6bn in Mar’18); G5 central banks have bought $13tn of financial assets since 2008 (Chart 3).

 end
Today, they accept 66 billion of the 75 billion in TOMO offered.  Clearly there is a plumbing problem in the money markets.  As explained above the stress in the repo market was due to the Fed’s QT reducing its balance sheet.  Obviously it should not have done that as those funds were badly needed.  The fact that there is continual stress in the repo market means QE4 is around the corner and they need at least a boost of 400 billion in liquidity and they will need to increase the Fed’s balance sheet by another 360 billion dollars.
(zerohedge)

Dollar Shortage Eases But Banks Still Signal $66 Billion Funding Shortfall In Fed Repo Operation

After announcing a barrage of emergency liquidity operations announced by the Fed late on Friday, including daily overnight repo ops, as well as three $30BN term repos to provide funding across quarter end – traditionally a time funding shortages – and into Q4, this morning’s $75BN repo operation showed clear signs of stabilization in the overnight funding market, when “only” $65.75 billion in collateral was accepted by the Fed in exchange for reserves, marking the first non-oversubscribed repo operation since Wednesday.

Specifically, the NY Fed announced that it had accepted $49.7BN in Treasurys, $0.6BN in Agency paper and $15.45BN in MBS all at the 1.80% IOER stop out rate (with the rate however rising as high as 1.84% on TSYs and 1.87% on MBS).

This was just under $10 billion less than Friday’s repo op, driven by a $10 billion drop in Treasury collateral parked at the Fed.

Still, what is worrisome is that almost a week after the widely cited catalyst of tax payments, and with the Treasury’s general account at the Fed already having been boosted to over $300 billion, the liquidity shortage persists even though numerous “experts” said this temporary phenomenon would faded entering this week. This, in turn, suggests that the troubles in the repo market are indeed a function of reserve scarcity, a topic we discussed extensively last night when we suggested that the Fed will need to inject about $400 billion in reserves, pushing the total up to $1.8 trillion, to normalize the Fed Funds -IOER spread.

And while there was no term repo operation scheduled today, one is coming tomorrow, which may indicate that the funding shortage will get worse as dealer will likely anticipate a shortfall of funding exiting the quarter.

Commenting on the ongoing turmoil in the repo market, Citi strategist Steve Kand said in a Friday note that while the Federal Reserve’s open market operations may help to alleviate funding market stress in the near-term, the plan is an “imperfect one” to shield against a rise in repo rates at quarter-end. Similar to our calculations, Citi estimated the in total the repo market needs roughly $200BN to reduce GC volatility over quarter-end and offset the effects of a decline in reserves, Treasury auction settlements and quarter- end netting, reminding that these same three issues were in play in December 2018, when GC rose above 5%.

Looking ahead, Citi expects reserves to decline by around $100BN on Sept. 30, as Treasury’s cash balance will increase by $50b, the Fed’s RRP facility tends to increase by around $40b, and foreign RRP balances have been rising, with Citi estimating another $10b increase. Meanwhile, on Sept 30, the gross Treasury supply is expected to be $113bn.

In short, the quarter-end rate will likely climb, as DTCC GC repo demand rises in lieu of tri-party, given the increase in netting needs.

Finally, Citi joined the bandwagon consensus spearheaded by Bank of America, Nomura, JPMorgan, Goldman and, last but not least, Simon Potter, in concluding that the Fed is likely to transition to permanent open market operations after the October FOMC, which depending on one’s semantic disposition may or may not be defined as QE4; until then, the central bank will experiment with “flexible OMOs” to get a better sense of the amount of “necessary intervention.”

end
E cigarette company Juul is now under criminal investigation by the Feds as they are facing an FTC probe as well as an FDA
probe
(zerohedge)

Juul Under Criminal Investigation By Feds Amid FTC, FDA Probes

E-cigarette maker Juul Labs Inc. is under criminal investigation by federal prosecutors from the US attorney’s office in the Northern District of California, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter.

While the focus of the probe is unknown, the fast-growing company has come under heavy scrutiny by state and federal officials over a rapid rise in vaping among teenagers – with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and several state attorneys investigating the company’s marketing practices. To top it off, the Trump administration announced earlier this month that it was planning to ban most flavored e-cigarettes.

The FTC’s probe is focused on whether Juul used social-media influencers and other marketing to appeal to minors, while the FDA is conducting a more wide-ranging investigation, covering marketing and outreach as well as the high nicotine content of Juul’s refill pods. –Wall Street Journal

The San Francisco-based Juul claims that it has never marketed to teens – despite a Stanford Research white paper which concluded that the company’s marketing “was patently youth-oriented.”

In the summer of 2015, Juul’s product launch coincided with sampling events in major US cities. Good-looking young people distributed free Juuls at movie and music events. “The principal focus of these activities was to get a group of youthful influencers to accept gifts of Juul products,” the report states, “to try out their various flavors, and then to popularize their products among their peers.”

The same year, Juul launched a “Vaporized” campaign. Again, its colorful ads — blasted out on billboards, in magazines, and on social media — featured happy, playful 20-something models. –Vox

According to the Journal, “While cigarette smoking has dropped among teens, nearly 28% of high school students this year said they had used an e-cigarette at least once in the past 30 days, up from 21% a year earlier, according to a recent federal survey.”

endPeter Schiff delivers a terrific video//commentary as to what is going on.  He correctly states that the Fed in 2011 gave us the illusion that they were going to unwind all of their new additions of bonds from the balance sheet.  Once the illusion ends, we basically have QE to infinity as that is the only thing capable of holding up asset prices.  This is why gold will continue on its northerly journey

a must view..

(courtesy Peter Schiff/zerohedge)

Schiff: “The Fed’s Illusion That There Was An ‘Endgame’ Is About To Be Shattered”

Via SchiffGold.com,

Peter Schiff has been saying that the price of gold and silver are going to take off.

But why?

Peter isn’t just taking a wild guess or gazing into a mystical crystal ball. He’s basing this prediction on the unavoidable economic consequences stemming from decades of Federal Reserve mechanizations. In s nutshell, the central bank has checked us into a monetary roach motel. Once it entered the current policy there was no way it would ever be able to leave.

 

In this SchiffGold Videocast, Peter explains exactly what the Fed has done, what it’s doing now, and why no matter what it does next, gold and silver are going much higher!

Despite checking us into a monetary roach motel, somehow, the central bankers managed to convince the world that it could indeed check us out. After holding rates at zero for some seven years and initiating three rounds of quantitative easing, the Fed somehow made everybody believe it was going to normalize rates and shrink its balance sheet.

The Fed fooled the markets.

In the early days of the post-2008 crash easy money era, the markets weren’t quite so sure. Gold rose to $1.900 per ounce in 2011 and silver was as high as $50 per ounce. But a lot of people don’t realize that the bull rally in gold and silver actually started as the Fed’s easy-money policies blew up the housing bubble in the early 200os. In 2001, gold was under $300 per ounce and silver was under $4.

After that 2011 peak, the gold and silver market went into a correction. What sparked that? The false belief that the Fed could actually succeed in unwinding its balance sheet and normalizing interest rates.

Ironically, gold hit the bottom of this correction at the same time the Fed started to raise rates. At the time, naysayers claimed that gold was about to really tank as the central bank pushed rates up. The opposite happened. Gold began to climb. The interest rate increases had already been factored in. In fact, the market was anticipating more hikes than we got.

And now the hiking is over. In September, the Fed delivered its second rate cut. But as Peter pointed out, something more significant happened. The Fed basically launched the equivalent of QE4.

What the Federal Reserve is doing is expanding its balance sheet, creating money out of thin air to buy government debt and other debt to artificially suppress interest rates.”

Of course, they aren’t calling it “quantitative easing,” which was actually a term made up in the first place to make people feel good about the policy. Now quantitative easing has a bad rap so they’re calling it POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations.) Peter said no matter what you call it, it’s basically just good old fashioned debt monetization.

That’s what banana republics do. America is doing the same thing except we don’t have the bananas.”

When you boil it all down, quantitative easing is creating money out of thin air to increase the money supply. It is inflation. It’s not a good thing, so the Fed tried to make it sound good by calling it something else that didn’t sound so bad – quantitative easing.

Interestingly, in the early days of the Great Recession, then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke assured Congress that the Fed was not monetizing debt. He said the difference between debt monetization and the Fed’s policy was that the central bank was not providing a permanent source of financing. He said the Treasurys would only remain on the Fed’s balance sheet temporarily. He assured Congress that once the crisis was over, the Federal Reserve would sell the bonds it bought during the emergency.

As Peter put it, he was lying through his teeth. Most of those bonds are still on the books. And they’re about to add more.

So now, what was once an emergency tool that would be used only in a dire emergency like the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, right? the Fed had to reach for this tool in an emergency Now, just as I said, this has become normal operating procedure — central banking 101. Because as I said from day one, once the Fed took us down this road, there was no going back. Once you hook somebody on drugs, they’re hooked for life. They can’t kick the habit without going through massive withdrawal.”

In effect, the Fed has created a phony policy that is dependent on the continuation of these easy-money policies.

The illusion, the myth the Fed created that there was an end-game, that there was an exit strategy, is going to be shattered.”

Remember, the reason gold went into correction was the wrongheaded belief that the Fed really could end QE and normalize interest rates.

When the markets figure out that QE is infinite, it’s permanent, it’s never going to end, that interest rates are stuck at zero indefinitely, then the price of gold is going to take off. Because the only reason that it stopped rising back then is the false confidence that the central bankers were able to engender. All that confidence is going to be lost. People are going to be rushing out of fiat money, the dollar in particular, into gold, into silver.”

Eventually, interest rates will be forced higher. We already saw these rumblings in the repo market. And the Fed isn’t going to have any choice. If it keeps trying to suppress them indefinitely, we’ll end up with hyperinflation.

Regardless of whether or not the Fed ultimately makes the right or wrong choice, before that happens, the price of gold and silver are going much, much higher. If they make the wrong choice, it will go infinitely higher.”

Peter said he doesn’t know how much longer the window to buy gold and silver will stay open before it makes new highs.

But those people who are waiting for new lows, people who are waiting to buy gold below $1,000, or maybe buy silver below $10, that’s not going to happen. You’re not going to see those prices. What you need to do now is just buy into the market.”

end

 

iv) Swamp commentaries)

As promised, Trump did nothing wrong and this “whistle blower” story just blew up in all of the Dems faces

(courtesy Red State/Bonchie)and thanks to Robert H for sending this to us.

plus 4 other commentaries on the same subject

 

As Predicted, That Trump-Ukraine “Whistle-Blower” Story Just Blew Up In Epic Fashion

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What do I win?

Earlier this morning, I wrote a piece predicting that this story about Trump and Ukraine, supposedly involving a quid pro quo and an investigation request into Joe Biden, would blow up. The centerpiece of this was Biden being on tape bragging that he threatened to withhold $1 billion in loan guarantees if Ukraine didn’t fire a prosecutor. That prosecutor just happened to be going after his son’s company. Just a coincidence, I’m assured.

Here’s the tape of Biden.

Ryan Saavedra

@RealSaavedra

Joe Biden brags about how he threatened to pull $1 billion in loan guarantees from Ukraine if it didn’t immediately fire Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin.

The prosecutor, who was fired, was leading a corruption investigation into a company that employed Biden’s son, Hunter

Embedded video

Somehow though, this became a Trump scandal because a supposed “whistle-blower” claimed that the President had pressured Ukraine to investigate Biden’s very apparent corruption. I know, it makes no sense, but that’s how it works in the age of orange man bad. Somehow being on tape extorting a country wasn’t a big deal, but Trump wanting an investigation into it by our ally was impeachable. The media immediately went into leak and supposition mode, claiming that Trump had threatened the new Ukrainian President by withholding of $250 million in military aid they desperately needed.

This was it we were told. It was the scandal that would finally bring Trump down. And then, like always happens, more information started to trickle out that countered the hysteria.

Per The Wall Street Journal.

President Trump in a July phone call repeatedly pressured the president of Ukraine to investigate Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden ’s son, urging Volodymyr Zelensky about eight times to work with Rudy Giuliani, his personal lawyer, on a probe, according to people familiar with the matter.

“He told him that he should work with [Mr. Giuliani] on Biden, and that people in Washington wanted to know” whether allegations were true or not, one of the people said. Mr. Trump didn’t mention a provision of foreign aid to Ukraine on the call, said this person, who didn’t believe Mr. Trump offered the Ukrainian president any quid-pro-quo for his cooperation on an investigation…

And there it is. There was no quid-pro-quo. He did not threaten to withhold military aid. He simply asked several times on a single phone call for them to look into it. He never even called back to press the issue further. None of the nonsensical gnashing of teeth we heard all day about this supposedly being an impeachment bombshell is true. A President asked an ally to investigate corruption that Biden himself admitted to on tape.

Some still can’t let this go though. We have certain conservatives of the anti-Trump bent asserting that the President didn’t actually have to say the words to be asking for a quid-pro-quo. Actually, yes, yes he does have to say the words. Especially when we know the military aid went through anyway despite no investigation being opened by Ukraine. The idea that we are now going to go after Trump based on suppositions of what Ukraine should have deemed from a perfectly legal request is asinine.

Look, I realize some had a lot invested in this, but how many times must they learn this lesson? How hard is it to wait 24 hours and see what else comes out? If a story fits a partisan narrative too perfectly, it’s probably not true or lacking context.

The other thing I’m hearing is that even if this wasn’t illegal or impeachable, it was still wrong because he asked a foreign leader to help him in a way that would benefit him politically. Frankly, I could not care less. These are the new rules. In 2016, the Obama administration went after the Trump campaign based on what they claimed were legitimate suspicions. We have Biden on tape. I’d say that’s a legitimate suspicion. Further, the DNC used Ukraine to get dirt on Paul Manafort. The Hillary campaign hired a foreign spy to build a dossier of opposition research on Trump. So spare me the moral lectures on using foreign sources.

This is politics, not religion and the only way you gather information on corruption by opponents in foreign countries is by using foreign sources. Democrats, the media, and some anti-Trump Republicans do not get to change the rules all the sudden when they don’t benefit them anymore. The precedent was set in 2016 and they will be made to live by it.

Meanwhile, the scramble is on to try to salvage what little is left of this story exploding in their faces. We’ll get all the usual excuses and claims that even though Trump didn’t do it, he’s still bad. The Washington Post will push out a dozen editorials all saying the same thing. The song and dance never changes. For all practical purposes though, this story is dead and done as far as Trump goes.

Biden’s involvement on the other hand? That story will only grow.

EducatëdHillbilly™@RobProvince

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1175163907641663495 

Chris Hayes

@chrislhayes

I am watching this somehow turn into a story about Biden and am going to pass out.

Bonchie@bonchieredstate

@chrislhayes

Embedded video

end

Trump Pounces On Biden-Ukraine Scandal As Whistleblower Story Flips On Dems

President Trump and his social media team have seized on allegations that Joe Biden abused his position as Vice President to strongarm Ukraine into firing its top prosecutor – who was leading a wide-ranging investigation into Biden’s son Hunter and the natural gas firm that paid him $50,000 per month despite his total lack of experience.

While the Biden-Ukraine story has been simmering for the better part of five years under a firm MSM lid, the scandal has been thrust into the spotlight after the MSM peddled a ‘scandalous’ whistleblower story in which a “partisan” G-man reported that Trump made promises to a foreign leader that were inappropriate.

Now, we come to find out that the conversation was with Ukraine’s new president, Volodymyr Zelensky, about reopening the Biden investigation – and that it did not contain a quid pro quo.

 

And while Democrats’ hopes of finally nailing Trump appear to be melting into their sea of Russiagate tears, Trump is now capitalizing on the turnabout, bigly.

“The Fake News Media and their partner, the Democrat Party, want to stay as far away as possible from the Joe Biden demand that the Ukrainian Government fire a prosecutor who was investigating his son, or they won’t get a very large amount of U.S. money, so they fabricate a story about me and a perfectly fine and routine conversation I had with the new President of the Ukraine,” Trump said this in his opening salvo over Twitter Saturday morning.

“Nothing was said that was in any way wrong, but Biden’s demand, on the other hand, was a complete and total disaster. The Fake News knows this but doesn’t want to report!”

Trump then posted a montage beginning with Biden claiming “Not one single credible outlet has given any credibility to his [Trump’s] assertion.” 

Au contraire Biden:

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

This is the real and only story!

Embedded video

Trump’s 2020 campaign account chimed in, providing clips of the MSM investigating the Biden claims, along with a report that former Secretary of State John Kerry’s (D) son cut ties with Hunter Biden over Ukraine.

Trump War Room

@TrumpWarRoom

WATCH THE FULL ABC NEWS INVESTIGATION!

“Was Hunter Biden profiting off his dad’s work as Vice President, and did Joe Biden allow it?”http://youtu.be/mT2eXAzA73I pic.twitter.com/YEkGynLwmW

Embedded video

Trump War Room

@TrumpWarRoom

He knew something was up!

John Kerry’s son cut business ties with Hunter Biden over Ukrainian oil dealhttps://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/john-kerrys-son-cut-business-ties-with-hunter-biden-over-ukrainian-oil-deal 

John Kerry, Teresa Heinz Kerry, Vanessa Kerry, Alexandra Kerry, Christopher Heinz

John Kerry’s son cut business ties with Hunter Biden over Ukrainian oil deal

John Kerry’s stepson rushed to play damage control at the State Department after his business partner Hunter Biden cut a deal with an oligarch-owned Ukrainian gas company in 2014, according to…

washingtonexaminer.com

Trump War Room

@TrumpWarRoom

“Hunter Biden’s new job at a Ukrainian gas company is a problem” – The Washington Post, 2014https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2014/05/14/hunter-bidens-new-job-at-a-ukrainian-gas-company-is-a-problem-for-u-s-soft-power/ 

Hunter Biden’s new job at a Ukrainian gas company is a problem for U.S. soft power – The Washington…

Whatever his merits, people will assume the worst.

washingtonpost.com

On Friday, Trump downplayed the whistleblower story, telling reporters at the White House: “I’ll tell you this, somebody ought to look into Joe Biden’s statement where He talked about billions of dollars that he’s not giving to a certain country unless a certain prosecutor is taken off the case. So, somebody ought to look into that and you wouldn’t because he’s a Democrat. And the fake news doesn’t look into things like that, it’s a disgrace,” warning the press “You’ve had a very bad week, and this will be better than all of ’em, this is another one. So keep playing it out because you’re gonna look really bad when it falls, and I guess I’m about 22 and 0 and I’ll keep it that way.”

Biden lashes out

On Friday, Biden issued a statement calling on Trump to release a transcript of his July phone call with Zelensky.

“If these reports are true, then … It means that he [Trump] used the power and resources of the United States to pressure a sovereign nation—a partner that is still under direct assault from Russia—pushing Ukraine to subvert the rule of law in the express hope of extracting a political favor,” he said – apparently unaware of the irony that he openly bragged about doing the exact same thing years earlier.

 

end
the Dems are now panicking because the whistleblower did not listen to the Trump phone call.  What an absolute joke
(zeorhedge)

Democrats Panic Over Biden-Ukraine Scandal As MSM Hits Full Spin Cycle

As Joe Biden plummets in the popularity, Democratic lawmakers and the MSM have gone into panic mode after a whistleblower report of political malfeasance during a July phone call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about the Biden family’s dealings turned out to be fake news

Since the initial report, the Trump-Zelensky call has been downgraded to remove implications of a quid pro quo – and attention is now turning to what the Bidens actually did.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

“The real story involves Hunter Biden going around the world and collecting large payments from foreign governments and foreign oligarchs.” Peter Schweizer //Laura Ingraham. Hunter made a fortune in Ukraine and in China. He knew nothing about Energy, or anything else.

And to protect Biden – who is still the Democratic 2020 frontrunner (barely), the media is simply ignoring the facts in order to peddle an election interference narrative.

“They want to bypass the fact that Joe Biden, in his own words, in multiple interviews, said that he threw the straw and had to go to the Ukraine and have a conversation and tell them to fire the individual that was doing the investigation into his son…,” former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski told Breitbart Newson Saturday – adding that the new narrative is “Oh, my God, Donald Trump might have had a conversation, asking if there was anything done” related to the Hunter Biden investigation while they hyperventilate about Trump talking to Zelensky.”

“It’s a total double standard.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Embedded video

On Sunday, President Trump told reporters before departing for events in Texas and Ohio that his call with Zelensky was “largely congratulatory, was largely corruption, all of the corruption taking place.”

“It was largely the fact that we don’t want our people, like Vice President Biden and his son, creating to the corruption already in the Ukraine,” he added – insisting that an anonymous intelligence whistleblower had raised “false alarms” over his conversations with a foreign leader – and he would have no problem with his attorney Rudy Giuliani testifying to Congress about the whole thing, according to Bloomberg.

You can’t have people doing false alarms like this,” said Trump.

In a July 25 phone call with Zelenskiy, Trump asked the Ukrainian leader to investigate Biden’s son Hunter, according to a person familiar with the call. Trump defended the call on Sunday.

I said nothing wrong, it was perfect. I assume many people are on the line. I know that before I make the call,” Trump told reporters as he departed for events ahead of the United Nations General Assembly next week. “What wasn’t perfect was the horrible thing Joe Biden said.

The Washington Post has reported that the whistle-blower’s complaint concerns Trump’s interactions with Zelenskiy. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko said in an interview with a Ukrainian news outlet, Hromadske, on Saturday that “Trump did not pressure Zelenskiy.” –Bloomberg

The whistleblower didn’t actually hear the call

Buried in a recent CNN article noted by the Daily Wires Ashe Schow, “The whistleblower didn’t have direct knowledge of the communications,” adding “Instead, the whistleblower’s concerns came in part from learning information that was not obtained during the course of their work.”

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko, meanwhile, said Trump didn’t pressure Ukraine. 

“President Trump is interested, his advisor, [Rudolph] Giuliani, newspapers, Democrats, Republicans are interested in whether pressure had been put on Ukraine. I want to say that we are an independent state, we have our own secrets,” said Prystaiko.

I know what the conversation was about and I think there was no pressure. There was talk, conversations are different, leaders have the right to discuss any problems that exist. This conversation was long, friendly, and it touched on a lot of questions, including those requiring serious answers.”

Impeach anyway!

Three Democratic-led house committees, meanwhile, have launched a “large-scale investigation” into whether Trump pressured Ukraine – while as noted above, their only go-to now is that Trump attempted to interfere in the 2020 US election – while absurdly glossing over the fact that Biden openly bragged, on camera, about pressuring Ukraine to fire the guy investigating his son! 

Sean Davis

@seanmdav

The latest media-manufactured faux scandal is that Trump needs to be impeached because he a told a foreign leader to rein in corruption. Oh, and Joe Biden, who *bragged on camera* about bribing Ukraine to fire a prosecutor investigating his son’s company, should be president.

Biden, meanwhile, lashed out on Saturday – suggesting the press should instead investigate Trump, who knows Biden will “beat him like a drum.”

Joe Biden

@JoeBiden

Eight. That’s how many times Donald Trump asked a foreign leader to investigate me and my family.

Why? Because he knows I’ll beat him like a drum.

Embedded video

Now let’s do the Bidens’ adventures in China.

end
More hits on Biden and new details on Hunter Biden’s involvement with China.
(zerohedge)

Giuliani Hits Bidens With New $3 Million “Ukraine-Latvia-Cyprus” Money Laundering Accusation

Rudy Giuliani leveled serious new claims at the Bidens in a series of Monday morning tweets. Chief among them is a claim that $3 million was laundered to former Vice President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, via a “Ukraine-Latvia-Cyprus-US” route – a revelation he claims was “kept from you by Swamp Media.”

Giuliani also says that Obama’s US embassy instructed Cyprus not to reveal the dollar amount.

 

Trump’s personal attorney then mentioned China – where journalist Peter Schweizer reported Joe and Hunter Biden flew in 2013 on Air Force Two. Two weeks later, Hunter’s firm inked a private equity deal for $1 billion with a subsidiary of the Chinese government’s Bank of China, which expanded to $1.5 billion, according to an article by Schweizer’s in the New York Post.

Giuliani then went on to tweet that the Bidens lied about not discussing Hunter’s overseas business.

On Saturday, Joe Biden said he “never” spoke with Hunter about the Ukrainian energy company that Hunter sat on the board of while being paid $50,000 per month. As you’re doubtless aware by now, the elder Biden threatened to withhold $1 billion in US loan guarantees from Ukraine if they didn’t fire the investigator probing the company, Burisma. 

Hunter, however,admitted in July that the two did speak about his Ukraine business “just once,” telling the New Yorker “Dad said, ‘I hope you know what you are doing,’ and I said, ‘I do’

Rudy then lashed out at the Democratic party, which he said would “own” Biden’s scandals if hey don’t “call for investigation of Bidens’ millions from Ukraine and billions from China.”

Here’s what we know about Hunter’s dealings in China based on Schweizer’s reporting via our May report:

  • Hunter Biden and his partners created several LLCs involved in multibillion-dollar private equity deals with Chinese government-owned entities.
  • The primary operation was Rosemont Seneca Partners – an investment firm founded in 2009 and controlled by Hunter Biden, John Kerry’s stepson Chris Heinz, and Heniz’s longtime associate Devon Archer. The trio began making deals “through a series of overlapping entities” under Rosemont.
  • In less than a year, Hunter Biden and Archer met with top Chinese officials in China, and partnered with the Thornton Group – a Massachusetts-based consultancy headed by James Bulger – son of famed mob hitman James “Whitey” Bulger.
  • According to the Thornton Group’s Chinese-language website, Chinese executives “extended their warm welcome” to the “Thornton Group, with its US partner Rosemont Seneca chairman Hunter Biden (second son of the now Vice President Joe Biden.”
  • Officially, the China meets were to “explore the possibility of commercial cooperation and opportunity,” however details of the meeting were not published to the English-language version of the website.
  • “The timing of this meeting was also notable. It occurred just hours before Hunter Biden’s father, the vice president, met with Chinese President Hu Jintao in Washington as part of the Nuclear Security Summit,” according to Schweizer.
  • Perhaps most damning in terms of timing and optics, just twelve days after Hunter and Joe Biden flew on Air Force Two to Beijing, Hunter’s company signed a “historic deal with the Bank of China,” described by Schweizer as “the state-owned financial behemoth often used as a tool of the Chinese government.” To accommodate the deal, the Bank of China created a unique type of investment fund called Bohai Harvest RST (BHR). According to BHR, Rosemont Seneca Partners is a founding partner.

It was an unprecedented arrangement: the government of one of America’s fiercest competitors going into business with the son of one of America’s most powerful decisionmakers.

Chris Heinz claims neither he nor Rosemont Seneca Partners, the firm he had part ownership of, had any role in the deal with Bohai Harvest. Nonetheless, Biden, Archer and the Rosemont name became increasingly involved with China. Archer became the vice chairman of Bohai Harvest, helping oversee some of the fund’s investments. –New York Post

And while Hunter Biden had “no experience in China, and little in private equity,” the Chinese government for some reason thought it would be a great idea to give his firm business opportunities instead of established global banks such as Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs.

Also in December 2014, a Chinese state-backed conglomerate called Gemini Investments Limited was negotiating and sealing deals with Hunter Biden’s Rosemont on several fronts. That month, it made a $34 million investment into a fund managed by Rosemont.

The following August, Rosemont Realty, another sister company of Rosemont Seneca, announced that Gemini Investments was buying a 75 percent stake in the company. The terms of the deal included a $3 billion commitment from the Chinese, who were eager to purchase new US properties. Shortly after the sale, Rosemont Realty was rechristened Gemini Rosemont.

Chinese executives lauded the deal. –New York Post

“Rosemont, with its comprehensive real-estate platform and superior performance history, was precisely the investment opportunity Gemini Investments was looking for in order to invest in the US real estate market,” said Li Ming, chairman of Sino-Ocean Land Holdings Limited and Gemini Investments. “We look forward to a strong and successful partnership.

Three years later,a crack pipe, two DC driver’s licenses and other paraphenelia would be found in a rental car Hunter Biden returned to an Arizona Hertz location in the middle of the night.

Amazing how so many countries would scramble to do business with Hunter – a guy with virtually no experience who was discharged from the Navy after testing positive for cocaine – who just happened to be the Vice President’s son.

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

The King Report September 23, 2019 Issue 6097                                                                                Independent View of the News

The Fed’s 4th consecutive huge repo operation reduced the Overnight (O/N) General Collateral (GC) rate to 1.95%.  However, the two-week repo traded around 2.5% to 2.7%.  This implies that quarterly refunding pressure this week could be a problem.

After rallying from an hour before the NYSE open until 9:41 ET (3018 peak).  ESZs then rolled over.

Realizing that quarter-end funding pressure will be acute, the Fed on Friday morning announced that it would conduct “three 14-day term repo operations for an aggregate amount of at least $30 billion each, as indicated in the schedule below. The Desk also will offer daily overnight repo operations for an aggregate amount of at least $75 billion each, until Thursday, October 10, 2019

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_190920

The Fed’s need to perform $165B of term ($90B) and daily ($75B) repos unnerved traders.  Boston Fed President Rosengren, who voted against a rate cut, abetted the morning drop with hawkish statements.

Fed’s Rosengren says the US has survived the trade war and doesn’t need rate cuts

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/20/feds-rosengren-us-has-survived-the-trade-war-doesnt-need-rate-cuts.html

Boston Fed’s Rosengren: Lower rates could expose co-working companies like WeWork

Lower interest rates would invite more leverage in the financial system… “The data we have in hand suggest instead that the recovery would continue apace even with little monetary policy accommodation… Because co-working companies have long-term leases on buildings but re-lease office space to young and risky companies on short-term leases, Rosengren worries that in a downturn vacancies would rise dramatically as a drying-up of tenant income exposes the co-working company to default risk on their longer-term leases…   https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boston-federal-reserve-rosengren-dissent-152023703.html

The morning decline persisted into the European close.  ESZs and stocks rallied after the European close; but the rally ended quickly.  The subsequent decline took stocks back to session lows.  After bottom bumping during midday, ESZs tumbled 26 handles in 7 minutes at 13:10 ET on this:

Dow drops 100 points after China trade officials cut US visit short [cancel visits to US farms]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/20/stock-market-wall-street-in-focus-as-us-china-trade-talks-resume.html

The usual suspects quickly forced ESZs 13 handles (in 9 minutes).  The reason for the sharp bounce was St. Louis Fed President and uber-dove Bullard commenced a speech.  Bullard said the Fed shouldn’t ignore signs of potential recession; low inflation give the Fed more room to maneuver (create credit) the neutral Fed funds rate could be less than 2% and low global yields mean the US can’t be far out of line;

[Attention Bullard]: Hold That Recession: U.S. Indicators Are Trouncing Forecasts

  • Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index climbs to 11-month high
  • Housing, jobless claims data were stronger than forecast

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-20/hold-that-recession-u-s-indicators-are-trouncing-forecasts

The stronger than-expected US economy (opposed to China trade friction slowdown and beat DJT with recession in 2020 fantasies) and inflation are taking a toll on the bond market.  CPI Core inflation has been running hot versus the 10-year yield since Fed QE commenced but now the disparity is accelerating.

The Bullard afternoon rally stair-stepped higher until a final-hour decline appeared.  The S&P 500 Index closed (2992) below 3000 due to spirited selling at the close.

Once again, due to rank manipulation, hyper sensitive algos and reactive lemmings, deleterious volatility inundated the US stock market.

Anyone paying attention should realize that the global financial markets cannot function smoothly without constant central intervention.  Markets are addicted to central bank support.

The repo markets mystery reminds us that we are flying blind

A decade of extraordinary monetary policy experiments has left the system badly distorted… https://www.ft.com/content/35d66294-dadc-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17

Potter Warns Fed May Have to Buy More Debt to Calm Market

Former head of NY Fed’s trading desk speaks with BofA clients

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-20/potter-said-to-warn-fed-may-have-to-buy-more-debt-to-calm-market

Even with the benefit of Fed repos and the standard expiry manipulation, the usual suspects could not force the S&P 500 Index to a new high on Friday.

Please note that the Fed’s first three repo announcements were made after the NYSE close.  The 4th (Thursday) was made during the final hour.  On Friday, the Fed announced the term and daily repo schemes during the second hour of trading.

Merkel Coalition Seals $60 Billion Deal to Fight Climate Change –  by setting a price on carbon-dioxide emissions for transport and providing incentives for cleaner technologies… Germany doesn’t expect the plan to require the government to raise more debt. The costs for incentives such as promoting electric vehicles and upgrading older furnaces will be balanced by income from carbon-dioxide certificates… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-20/merkel-s-coalition-locked-in-marathon-talks-to-seal-climate-deal

In a major disappointment for bulls, Merkel asserted that Germany would stick with a balanced budget.

Germany’s Merkel: We remain committed to the black zero

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Friday that her government would stick to its balanced budget goal of not taking on new debt after the government agreed a climate protection package worth 50 billion euros ($55.2 billion) through to 2023.  “We remain committed to the black zero (policy of no fiscal deficits),”…   https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/20/reuters-america-germanys-merkel-we-remain-committed-to-the-black-zero.html

Hundreds of Chinese goods exempted from Trump’s tariffs

The Trump administration has excluded Christmas tree lights, a series of pet supplies, plastic drinking straws and hundreds of other products from a 25% duty President Trump imposed on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods, according to three notices set to be published in the Federal Register on Friday…

    The exclusions will last for a year for products from the $34 billion and $16 billion product lists, but only until Aug. 7, 2020 for products from the $200 billion product list, USTR said.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/19/hundreds-of-chinese-goods-exempted-from-trumps-tariffs-1753322

Senate to Vote on H-1B Program that Sneaks Billions in Payroll from GOP States

Nationwide, roughly 800,000 foreign college-graduates — including about 600,000 Indians — are using the H-1B program to work jobs that were held by American college graduates. H-1Bs are cheap because many take the jobs in exchange for their employers’ promise to nominate them for… taxpayer-funded green card…  https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/09/19/h-1b-program-sucks-billions-of-s-in-payroll-from-gop-states/

 

@Jkylebass: Generic Drugs tainted with poison and/or toxic levels of carcinogens are all coming from china. 90% of drugs Americans take are generic drugs… Rosemary Gibson – Senior Advisor at Hastings Center: “If China shut the door on exports of medicines and their key ingredients and raw material, US Hospitals and Military Hospitals would cease to function in months if not days.”… EVERY antibiotic and blood pressure medicine IS MADE IN CHINA

 

WSJ: Aramco says repairs to Saudi plant could take many months rather than weeks – It may take many months-rather than the maximum 10 weeks company executives have promised-to restore operations to full working order

 

Today – Friday’s action was dispiriting for bulls.  The quest to push the S&P 500 Index to a new high, abetted by expiry manipulation and Fed intervention failed.  If the usual attempt at a Monday rally fails, traders will not be shy about unloading holdings.  There is still a systemic funding problem.  Further Fed measures to remedy Street funding woes might be counterproductive for stocks.

 

If stronger than expected Markit US PMIs for September appear, bonds could be impacted negatively.  The Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.3.  The consensus for the Services PMI is 51.5.

 

ESZs are +15.50 at 21:30 ET because China’s Agriculture Minister said China’s cancellation of trips to US farms on Friday had nothing to do with the US-China trade talks.  Traders are ignoring reports that South Korea exports for September to date are down 21.8% y/y; chip exports are -40% y/y.

 

The S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 2951; 100-day MA: 2920; 150-day MA: 2895; 200-day MA: 2825

The DJIA 50-day MA: 26,619; 100-day MA: 26,355; 150-day MA: 26,252; 200-day MA: 25,752

 

S&P 500 Index support: 2985-90, 2978, 2972, 2955-60, 2940-45, 2930, 2922, 2914, 2900, 2880

Resistance: 3000-05, 3017-22, 3027, 3040, 3050

 

Expected economic data: Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index 0.005; Markit US Sept Mfg PMI 50.3, Services PMI 51.5; NY Fed Prez Williams 9:50 ET, SF Fed Prez Daly 11:30 ET, Uber-dove and St. Louis Fed Prez Bullard will suck up to Trump (So he can replace Powell) at 13:00 ET

 

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames

Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 2502.93 triggers a sell signal

Weekly: Trender is positive;MACD is negative – a close below 2816.78 triggers a sell signal

Daily: Trender andMACD are positive -a close below 2951.31 triggers a sell signal

Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3018 triggers a buy signal

 

John Solomon: Missing piece to the Ukraine puzzle: State Department’s overture to Rudy Giuliani

Giuliani’s contact with Zelensky adviser and attorney Andrei Yermak this summer was encouraged and facilitated by the U.S. State Department.  Giuliani didn’t initiate it. A senior U.S. diplomat contacted him in July and asked for permission to connect Yermak with him

    According to interviews with more than a dozen Ukrainian and U.S. officials, Ukraine’s government under recently departed President Petro Poroshenko and, now, Zelensky has been trying since summer 2018 to hand over evidence about the conduct of Americans they believe might be involved in violations of U.S. law during the Obama years.

    The Ukrainians say their efforts to get their allegations to U.S. authorities were thwarted first by the U.S. embassy in Kiev, which failed to issue timely visas allowing them to visit America.

    Then the Ukrainians hired a former U.S. attorney — not Giuliani — to hand-deliver the evidence of wrongdoing to the U.S. Attorney’s Office in New York, but the federal prosecutors never responded

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/462422-missing-piece-to-the-ukraine-puzzle-state-departments-overture-to-rudy

 

CNN, of all news outlets, undermined the whistleblower’s credibility: The whistleblower didn’t have direct knowledge of the communications, an official briefed on the matter told CNN. Instead, the whistleblower’s concerns came in part from learning information that was not obtained during the course of their work, and those details have played a role in the administration’s determination that the complaint didn’t fit the reporting requirements under the intelligence whistleblower law, the official said… https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/20/politics/donald-trump-whistleblower/index.html

 

Trump Repeatedly Pressed Ukraine President to Investigate Biden’s Son

Mr. Trump didn’t mention a provision of foreign aid to Ukraine on the call, said this person, who didn’t believe Mr. Trump offered the Ukrainian president any quid-pro-quo for his cooperation on any investigation… The Biden campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment… https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-defends-conversation-with-ukraine-leader-11568993176

 

Trump Whistleblower Drama Puts Biden in the Hot Seat over Ukraine

    Giuliani… went on CNN with Chris Cuomo Thursday to defend his discussions with Ukraine about investigating alleged election interference in the 2016 election to the benefit of Hillary Clinton conducted by Ukraine’s previous government. According to Giuliani, Biden’s dealings in Ukraine were ‘tangential’ to the 2016 election interference question – in which a Ukrainian court ruled that government officials meddled for Hillary in 2016 by releasing details of Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort’s ‘Black Book’ to Clinton campaign staffer Alexandra Chalupa…

    What the MSM doesn’t appear to understand is that President Trump asking Ukraine to investigate Biden over something with legitimate underpinnings. Which – of course, may lead to the Bidens’ adventures in China…  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-whistleblower-drama-puts-biden-hot-seat-over-ukraine

 

@paulsperry_: Biden’s son Hunter retained a Fusion GPS client to prepare a report giving the corrupt Ukrainian company Burisma on whose board he sat a clean bill of health for investors

 

Ex-Intel officer @JackPosobiec: Ukraine was asked by Obama WH to dig up dirt on Manafort & Trump, and Biden told Ukraine to fire prosecutors investigating Hunter Biden or assistance would end.

Ex-CBS reporter @SharylAttkisson: If you were an anti-Trump leaker in the Intel Community afraid that you are about to be exposed with an investigation, might you not seek protection by calling yourself a “whistleblower”?  Asking for a friend.

 

Trump on Friday responding to reporters’ questions on whistleblower complaint: “It is a partisan whistleblower… another political hack job… I will say this, somebody ought to look into Joe Biden’s statement… where he talked about billions of dollarsthat he’s not giving to a certain country unless a certain prosecutor is taken off the case. So, somebody ought to look into that and you wouldn’t because he’s a Democrat. And the fake news doesn’t look into things like that, it’s a disgrace… the press has had a very bad week with Justice Kavanaugh and all those ridiculous charges, and all of the mistakes made at the New York Times and other places.  You’ve had a very bad week, and this will be better than all of them. So keep playing it out because you’re gonna look really bad when it falls, and I guess I’m about 22 and 0 and I’ll keep it that way… Keep asking questions and building it up as big as possible so you can have a bigger downfall.”https://twitter.com/jennfranconews/status/1175071395694268418

 

Cops overlook handgun in turnstile jumper’s waistband [New gun laws or basic law enforcement?]

    A photo obtained by The Post shows a cuffed Walters standing in the station, arms behind his back with his shirt raised in the front and the piece’s handle in plain view…

https://nypost.com/2019/09/19/cops-overlook-handgun-in-turnstile-jumpers-waistband/

 

Chicago Hopes to Curb Gun Violence by ‘Trimming Trees’ and ‘Removing Empty Beer Cans’

“A movement to harness neighborhood beautification initiatives as a prescription for the violence that has cauterized daily life,”… “There is something about physical space that signals whether or not this is an area where crime can happen,” said an assistant professor at the University of Michigan…

https://hannity.com/media-room/report-chicago-hopes-to-curb-gun-violence-by-trimming-trees-and-removing-empty-beer-cans/

 

Secret FBI Subpoenas Scoop Up Personal Data from Scores of Companies

Records show how far beyond Silicon Valley the practice extends — encompassing scores of banks, credit agencies, cellphone carriers and even universities… [The FBI needs extensive & profound reform.]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/secret-fbi-subpoenas-scoop-personal-190940830.html

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you Tueday night.

 

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One comment

  1. Dave Cruz · · Reply

    Well that might be cause impact on gold and silver trading.
    https://bulliontradingllc.com/

    Like

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