SEPT 24/THREAT OF A RIDICULOUS IMPEACHMENT GIVES GOLD A BIG BOOST TODAY: GOLD UP $8.65 BUT SILVER LAGS, DOWN 5 CENTS//QUEUE JUMPING FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AT THE COMEX/ A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 14.37 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ A MASSIVE 2.338 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT OF SILVER INTO THE SLV.///.////UK SUPREME COURT RULES BO.JO CANNOT PROROGUE PARLIAMENT//POOR NUMBERS FROM GERMANY THIS MORNING: POOR PMI NUMBERS //CEO OF VOLKSWAGEN ARRESTED FOR MANIPULATING MARKETS RE THE EMISSIONS SCANDAL//WE NOW HAVE PROOF THAT IRAN WAS ENRICHING URANIUM FOR BOMB PURPOSES//IN THE USA ANOTHER TERM REPO CASH INFUSION PLUS AN OVERNIGHT REPO BRINGS IN 142 BILLION DOLLARS OF CASH AS THE MONEY MARKET IS STILL QUITE CLOGGED//

GOLD:$1532.4 UP $8.65 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$18.58 DOWN 5 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1531.60

 

silver:  $18.61

Definition of Rico

RICO is typically used to indict mobsters – which makes its use against employees of the largest bank in America a very disquieting event. But even more disquieting is that two trial lawyers compared JPMorgan Chase to the Gambino crime family five long years ago and recommended in their 2016 book that the bank’s officers be prosecuted under the RICO statute.” … Pam Martens and Russ Martens

Ted Butler….

“If JPMorgan were ever found to be guilty of what I know it to be guilty of, the repercussions and reparations (including punitive damages) could completely overwhelm the bank’s ability to survive. For instance, every miner who produced silver for the past decade would have a claim against JPMorgan, as would just about every silver investor of every stripe. Therefore, some alternative resolution must be devised that doesn’t fully acknowledge all that JPMorgan had done wrong for more than a decade.” … Ted Butler

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 0/3

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,523.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/23/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 09/25/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 1 2
905 C ADM 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 3 3
MONTH TO DATE: 1,746

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT CONTRACT: 3 NOTICE(S) FOR 300 OZ (0.00611 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  1746 NOTICES FOR 174,600 OZ  (5.4867 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR SEPT

 

 

19 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 95,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 8662 for   43,310,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 9720 UP 15 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8714 DOWN 1776

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE  SIZED 3652 CONTRACTS FROM 211,963 UP TO 215,615 WITH THE GIGANTIC 80 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR SEPT 0,; DEC  1562 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1562 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1562 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1562 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 7.91 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 80 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.395   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

YESTERDAY, THERE WAS NOT EVEN A SLIVER OF AN ATTEMPT AT COVERING OUR BANKER SHORTS  AT THE SILVER COMEX. OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR AGAIN USED COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN AN ATTEMPT TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE BUT IS WAS TOO NO AVAIL.AS SILVER ADVANCED IN PRICE BY A HUGE 80 CENTS.

 

THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST IN BOTH EXCHANGES RISE BY A HUGE AMOUNT.

 

 

 

THE LIQUIDATION OF COMEX OI OF SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED AND WE WILL NOW COMMENCE WITH THE ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADERS GOLD OPEN INTEREST

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT:

28,187 CONTRACTS (FOR 16 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 28,187 CONTRACTS) OR 140.935 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1761 CONTRACTS OR 8.808 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  140.935 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 20.12% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1690.54   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3652, WITH THE 80 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1562 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC  SIZED: 5214 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1562 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 3652  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 80 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.63 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.079 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 154% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 19 NOTICE(S) FOR 95,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.395 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 12,407 CONTRACTS, TO 647,392 ACCOMPANYING THE  $16.25 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// /

WE ARE NOW CLOSING IN OUR RECORD COMEX OPEN INTEREST OF 652,971 SET IN JULY 19 2016

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7602 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  8060 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 647,392,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 20,467 CONTRACTS: 12,407 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 8060 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 20,467 CONTRACTS OR 2,046,700 OZ OR 63.66 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $16.25 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT STRONG GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 63.66  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON AS THE COMEX GOLD VOLUME AND OPEN INTEREST ARE HUGE. THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE LONGS AND AS YOU CAN SEE, THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST IN BOTH EXCHANGES SKYROCKETED

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 116,314 CONTRACTS OR 11,631,400 oz OR 361,78 TONNES (16 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 7269 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 361.78TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 361.78/3550 x 100% TONNES =10.19% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4513.88  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 12,407WITH THE HUGE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($16.25)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 8,060 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 8060 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 20,467 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

8060 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 12,407 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 63.66 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUMONGOUS INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $16.25 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  3 notice(s) filed upon for 300 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $8.65 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/

A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF: 14.37 TONNES

WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.52 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: 

A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.338 MILLION OZ/

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 3652 CONTRACTS from 211,963 UP TO 215,615 AND CLOSER TO FROM A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR SEPT. 0; FOR DEC  1562  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1562 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 3652  CONTRACTS TO THE 1562 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 5214 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 26.07 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ// AND FINALLY SEPT: 43.395 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 80 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1562 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.26 POINTS OR 0.28%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 58.60 POINTS OR 0.22%   /The Nikkei closed UP 19.75 POINTS OR 0.09%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .07%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.1068 /Oil UP TO 58.13 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.95 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1068 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 67.1043 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

In a good will gesture China waives waivers for USA soybean purchases.

(Courtesy zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

a)UK

In a landmark ruling, the uK Supreme Court ruled that Johnson’s suspension of Parliament is illegal.  This may hurt his chances of a no deal Brexit.  It looks like his only option is an election and let the citizens decide the makeup of Parliament and Brexit

(zerohedge)

b(GERMANY

Extremely important..it is something that we have been pointing out to you for several months.  Germany’s economy is faltering terribly.  Its yield curve is starting to invert.  And with Germany collapsing so is the Euro project

( Tom Luongo)

c))Mish Shedlock:  an article in German translated shows how negative rates killed the German banks

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

d)The CEO of Volkswagen has been charged with market manipulation in the emissions scandal as the shares of Volkswagen stumble

(zerohedge)

 

 

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAN

For those of you who thought that Iran was living up to its nuclear deal..guess again. Gatestone provides the evidence that they were enriching uranium from Day no 1 of the deal

(Dr Rafizadeh/Gatestone)

ii)The UK, France and Germany all state that the evidence is clear that IRAN  attacked the Saudis.  However they cut short of a military strike. The UK follows Trump on a better deal if Iran wants to play ball.

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

A good commentary as Nouriel Roubini outlines 4 collison areas where the game of “chicken”| is being played out

(Nouriel Roubini)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

a)Von Greyerz expects spectacular gains in gold and silver similar to the 2 million percent rise in Venezuela bolivars per oz of god due to the fact that central governments must print massive amounts of paper money to fund their governments.

(Von Greyerz/Kingworldnews)

b)The UK has been importing a huge amount of physical gold as investors turn their paper Exchange for Physical into real physical

(Lawrie Williams)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

USA confidence tumbles to 2019 lows

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)The first of the term repo auction has just been concluded as it is 2 x overscribed.  It is the overnight repo auction that we are watching very closely and since we are close to the quarter end we may see a considerable jump in the QC repo rate.

(zerohedge)

 

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Michael Snyder believes the dam may break on Thursday and the Democrats will stupidly try to impeach Trump

(Michael Snyder)

b)It looks like Trump actually withheld funds to Ukraine one week prior to the phone call. He wantss the u|kraine to rein in corruption

(zerohedge)

c)What an absolute farce!! Trump is set to release the Ukrainian transcript which took the thunder away from the Democrats.  However Pelosi is still set to announce formal impeachment inquiry against Trump which they will lose for sure

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 12,407 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 647,392 ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG GAIN OF $16.25 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 8060 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR SEPT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 8060   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  8060 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 20,467 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 8060 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 12,407 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS FAILED IN THEIR ATTEMPT AT CONTAINING GOLD’S PRICE AS IT ROSE BY $16.25. , THE CROOKS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE LONGS FROM THEIR OI POSITIONS.  AS I WROTE YESTERDAY: “THE OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE APPRECIABLY FOR TUESDAY’S READING AS GOLD /SILVER ROSE CONSIDERABLY IN THE ACCESS MARKET ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON” AND CONTINUED ONWARD IN PRICE DURING OUR NORMAL COMEX TIME PERIOD. 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  20,467 CONTRACTS OR 20,46700 OZ OR 63.66 TONNES.

We are now in the NON  active contract month of SEPT and here the open interest stands at 19 CONTRACTS and we GAINED 2 contracts.  We had 2 notices filed on Friday so  we gained 4 contracts or an additional 400 oz of gold  will stand for delivery at the comex (and those standing for metal.. nobody morphed into London forwards),… the siege continues as the story for physical gold is the name of the game despite the criminal antics of the bankers/official sector.

The next active delivery month is October and here the OI FELL by 1828 contracts DOWN to 30,200. The month of November saw a gain of 35 contracts and thus the OI is ADVANCED to 226.  The very big December contract month saw its oi RISE by 8601 contracts up to 487,752. First day notice is this coming Monday, Sept 30 and thus we have 4 more reading days.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 3 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  300 OZ. (0.00933 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 3652 CONTRACTS FROM 211,963 DOWN TO 215,615 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S HUGE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A STRONG 80 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.  HERE WE HAVE 36 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 17 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 36 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE AGAIN SURPRISINGLY GAINED A FULL 19 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 95,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. LET US WAIT AND SEE IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..  THE NEXT NON ACTIVE CONTRACT MONTH IS OCTOBER AND IT FELL BY 82 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1458. NOVEMBER SAW A SMALL GAIN OF 26 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 233. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 3460 CONTRACTS UP TO 166,221.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 19 notice(s) filed for 95,000, OZ for the SEPT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 130,567  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  384,702  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  SEPT/GOLD

SEPT 24/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
100.000 oz
???
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
3 notice(s)
 300 OZ
(0.00933 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
15 contracts
(1500 oz)
.0466 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1746 notices
174,600 OZ
5.4867 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into Everybody else: nil  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ zero amount  arrived   today

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i Out of Delaware: 100.000?? oz  (exact weight??)

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 100.000  oz

we had one adjustment from Delaware and this is a deemed settlement:

Out of Delaware: 1213.830 oz was removed from the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Delaware

 

 

FOR THE SEPT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 3 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1746) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT. (18 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (3 x 100 oz per contract) equals 176,100 OZ OR 5.4774 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of SEPT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (1746 x 100 oz)  + (18)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (3 x 100 oz )which equals 176,100 oz standing OR 5.4774 TONNES in this  active delivery month of SEPT.

 

We GAINED 4 contracts or an additional 400 oz will seek metal on this side of the pond instead of morphing over to London.  The gold comex is still under siege for any remaining physical metal.

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 22.854 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 27.153  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING //AUGUST AND 5.4774 TONNES IN SEPT.//

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT AS WELL AS SEPT SO FAR, AND THUS I WILL ADD THE 27.153 TONNES TO THE 5.4774 TONNES (EQUALS 32.6304 TONNES) AGAINST THE 22.854 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD.

total registered or dealer gold:  734,786.521 oz or  22.854 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,097,860.596 oz 251.877 tonnes

IN THE LAST 35 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
SEPT 24 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 601,870.640 oz

Brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
599,812.552 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
19
CONTRACT(S)
(95,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
17 contracts
 85,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  8662 contracts

43,310,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into CNT: 599,812.552 oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  599,812.552  oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of Brinks: 601,870.640 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 601,860.640  oz

 

we had 0 adjustment :

 

total dealer silver:  83,480 million

total dealer + customer silver:  316.593 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER 2019. contract month is represented by 19 contract(s) FOR 95,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 8662 x 5,000 oz = 43,310,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (36) and the number of notices served upon today 19 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2019 contract month: 8662 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (36)- number of notices served upon today (19)x 5000 oz equals 43,395,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month. 

We gained 19 contracts or 95,000 additional oz of silver will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negate a fiat bonus.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  41,290 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 135,857 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 135,857 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 679 million  OZ 97.04% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.74% ((SEPT 24/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.89% to NAV (SEPT 24/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.74%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.53 TRADING 15.07/DISCOUNT 2.94

 

 

 

 

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.65 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN OUT OF THIS WORLD DEPOSIT OF 14.37 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.52 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 10.65 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 ON THE DAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.06 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 16/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A BIG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 12//WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A HUGE 7.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.15 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 22.WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: I)A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD (LATE YESTERDAY EVENING) AND 2) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES LATE THIS AFTERNOON./INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.17 TONNES

AUGUST 20//WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD UP $3.55 TODAY//WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WE GOT BACK 7.63 TONNES OUT OF 11.11 TONNES LOST ON WEDNESDAY( A DEPOSIT OF 7.63 TONNES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY (AND DOWN $2.90 YESTERDAY) WE HAD A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 11.11 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/AND THIS WAS USED IN AN ABORTED RAID YESTERDAY:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.66 TONNES

AUGUST 13.2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TO DAY: A HUGE 7.92 PAPER GOLD TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.77 TONNES

AUGUST 12.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES

 

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 839.85 TONNES OZ/

AUGUST 8: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20: TWO TRANSACTIONS:  A)A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.50 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.42 TONNES  b)  A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.85 TONNES…ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

August 7/ WITH GOLD UP $31.00//A GOOD PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.92 TONNES

AUGUST 6.2019: WITH GOLD UP $7.85 A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.50 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD LATE LAST NIGHT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/2019//WITH GOLD UP $18.80/A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.76 TONNES.

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH GOLD UP $25.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.82 TONNES

AUGUST 1/2019: WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i) A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES (USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING)/ and ii) A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON!/INVENTORY RISE TO 827.82 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

JULY 30//WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 824.89 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

SEPT 24/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 908.52 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 667 TRADING DAYS: 40.64 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 567- TRADING DAYS: A NET 126.01 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.338 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23.2019/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.899 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION PAPER OZ OF SILVER///INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.425 MILLION PAPER OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.179 MILLION OZ../

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 60 CENTS TODAY: A RATHER TIMID CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 842,000 PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 386.604 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.696 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20.WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 16/: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 15/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING 3.977 MILLION OZ PAPER DEPOSIT/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/2019 WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.177 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13/2019: WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY NOW RESTS AT 371.637 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12/2019: WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 365.557 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 9/2019//WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 2.245 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY ADVANCES 365.557 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT: 1.409 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.311 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS: TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.34 MILLION OZ WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV LATE LAST NIGHT: THEN A HUGE 2.994 MILLION OZ OF A PAPER DEPOSIT THIS AFTERNOON: INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.907 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 5.2019: WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS A TINY 142,000 OZ WITHDRAWAL AND THAW AS TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.573 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 2/2019: WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30/2019: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 356.715 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24/2019:

 

 

Inventory 377.811 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.14/ and libor 6 month duration 2.05

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .09

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.05%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.04

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.01

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

Gold At 2 Week High At $1,523/oz On Global Economy Concerns; Palladium At All Time Nominal High

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold climbs as weak eurozone data underlines fears over global growth

Gold hits 2-week high on growth fears, palladium scales new peak

Global stocks sink on dismal economic data, mixed trade signals

European Central Bank Pressures EU Countries To Stimulate The European Economy

The Coming Currency War 2.0: Digital Money vs. the Dollar

Fed’s Williams: ‘We were prepared’ for the overnight funding jolt last week

Gold, Government Bonds Deliver `Portfolio Resilience’: BlackRock (video)


Gold Prices (LBMA – USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)

23-Sep-19 1519.50 1522.10, 1222.13 1225.90 & 1385.48 1385.11
20-Sep-19 1504.10 1501.90, 1199.07 1203.62 & 1361.06 1362.52
19-Sep-19 1498.40 1500.70, 1200.67 1201.76 & 1354.85 1357.08
18-Sep-19 1502.20 1503.50, 1206.27 1204.90 & 1360.39 1359.92
17-Sep-19 1499.30 1502.10, 1208.89 1207.24 & 1361.51 1360.45
16-Sep-19 1502.05 1497.20, 1207.35 1203.30 & 1357.25 1359.46
13-Sep-19 1506.30 1503.10, 1209.41 1208.19 & 1356.88 1358.35
12-Sep-19 1502.95 1515.20, 1219.94 1227.46 & 1362.88 1373.53
11-Sep-19 1493.65 1490.65, 1208.21 1209.07 & 1354.74 1355.90
10-Sep-19 1494.60 1498.25, 1211.52 1211.34 & 1353.51 1357.11

Click here to listen to the latest GoldCore Podcast

Receive our free Daily or Weekly Updates by signing up here and click here to subscribe to GoldCore’s You Tube Channel

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

von Greyerz expects spectacular gains in gold and silver similar to the 2 million percent rise in Venezuela bolivars per oz of god due to the fact that central governments must print massive amounts of paper money to fund their governments.

(Von Greyerz/Kingworldnews)

Egon von Greyerz: We have just entered the explosive phase in gold and silver

 Section: 

11:55a ET Monday, September 23, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In commentary at King World News, Swiss gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz posts charts showing the rise in the gold price in eight currencies since 1999. Gold shows spectacular gains in all of them, from 600 percent in U.S. dollars to 2 million percent in Venezuelan bolivars. Von Greyerz predicts similar gains are coming as central banks create infinite money.

Von Greyerz’s commentary is headlined “We Have Just Entered the Explosive Phase in Gold and Silver” and it’s posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/greyerz-buckle-up-we-have-just-entered-the-exp…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

The UK has been importing a huge amount of physical gold as investors turn their paper Exchange for Physical into real physical

(Lawrie Williams)

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Only 20% of latest Swiss gold exports going to Asia

Readers who have been following our coverage of Swiss gold exports will be aware that in ‘normal’ past trading months around 80% or more of Swiss gold exports have been destined for Asian markets – particularly to China, Hong Kong and India. However in the past couple of months this has not been the case, perhaps demonstrating something of a sea change in the markets. In both July and August by far the biggest recipient of Swiss re- refined gold has been the UK – a factor the ‘experts’ have put down to particularly strong demand from the gold ETFs, many of which have their gold vaulted in London,

Indeed in August, the Swiss refineries took imported more gold from Asia and the Middle East than it exported to what have, over the years, been the biggest recipients of Swiss gold exports. In the past month the biggest exporters of gold to Switzerland have been The United Arab Emirates (26.8 tonnes) and Thailand (16.5 tonnes) – both typically net gold importers. Meanwhile total Swiss gold exports to all Asian and Middle Eastern nations combined only amounted to 22.6 tonnes.

True, China – for the past few years the biggest importer of Swiss gold – has reportedly being restricting gold imports (although as the world’s biggest gold producer it can presumably meet domestic demand from its own sources). But the return of gold to Switzerland from traditional importers like the UAE and Thailand, suggests some liquidation and profit taking by local traders and consumers. The gold price has risen almost 20% so far this year giving a decent margin for profit taking, but also suggesting that the eastwards gold flows are not into quite such firm hands as suggested by many gold commentators. Conversely the big flows into the UK, if indeed these are due to gold ETF demand, suggest more of a geographical balance re-appearing for gold demand.

Obviously we will keep an analytical eye open on the future of Swiss gold exports. There appears that there may be a slight shortage of gold bullion availability in China currently – gold price premiums there are said to be at near record levels, and there are reports that China has been relaxing its strictures on gold imports. Thus perhaps we will see an uptick in Chinese imports from Switzerland in the months ahead. But if the gold price remains strong, and rises further, as some analysts are predicting, we could see heavy flows into the UK continuing thus affecting the short term supply/demand balance accordingly.

On the other hand, there is some evidence that central bank gold buying from the two biggest gold accumulators – Russia and China – may be diminishing slightly. There seems to be little strong evidence that global new mined gold supply is actually beginning to fall yet (peak gold) but is perhaps still marginally growing. Countries like Australia, Russia and Canada are seeing gold production increases offsetting declines elsewhere.

So the supply/demand balance is only changing subtly with factors like ETF demand offsetting other declining factors. This suggests that the gold (and silver) price path will remain heavily dependent on investor sentiment, which seems to be improving by the day as global equity market nervousness in the face of a likely global recession, and ever-present geopolitical uncertainties, lead to increasing safe haven demand. In our eyes the future for gold and silver prices still looks positive – pgms perhaps less so because of their industrial demand sensitivity and if there is a recession they will be affected adversely.

23 Sep 2019

-END-

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.1068/ GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.1043   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 8.26 POINTS OR 0.28%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 58.60 POINTS OR 0.22%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 19.75 POINTS OR 0.09%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.59/Euro RISES TO 1.0998

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.23/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.69/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.13 and Brent: 63/95

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.58%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.84% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.13%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.42: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.33

3k Gold at $1522.00 silver at: 18.57   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 15/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.68

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.68 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9887 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0873 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.58%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.70% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.15%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6858..

Futures, Global Stocks Jump On “Trade Hopes And Optimism”

It’s time for some trade optimism again to lift stocks again, just in case we haven’t had that every other day for the past year.

Rekindled U.S.-China trade hopes lifted share markets on Tuesday, while the pound spiked after the latest dramatic Brexit twist, when the UK’s top court ruled the government’s suspension of parliament had been unlawful.

 

And good thing algos had some positive trade news to trade on as one day after a disastrous German PMI print, there was more gloomy data from Germany to contend with too, including the worst German IFO Expectations print in a decade, and which would suggest a -6% GDP print is on deck.

 

That data, however, was ignored after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer confirmed on Monday that they would meet Chinese Vice Premier Liu He in two weeks’ time, while a separate report that China had granted new tariff waivers for US soybean purchases indicated Beijing may be telegraphing some more goodwill ahead of the negotiations.

“The comments (from Mnuchin on China trade talks) gave a little bit of boost to sentiment, but markets are still not that optimistic, either,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management. “It seems there have been a lot going on behind the scenes,” he said, referring to U.S. President Donald Trump’s questioning a decision by his top trade negotiators to ask Chinese officials to delay a planned trip to U.S. farming regions. That cancellation was seen by markets as a sign of trouble in the U.S.-China talks and sent stock prices tumbling on Friday.

As a result, U.S. index futures advanced with European stocks while Asian shares rose modestly as investors weighed renewed hopes for a trade deal – a catalyst for higher prices since the summer of 2018 – against increasingly recessionary economic data from around the globe. “A perceived lull in U.S.-China trade tensions has eased market fears about an economic downturn,” BlackRock strategists wrote in a note.

Not everyone was euphoric however: “All eyes are on early October, although there’s not a lot of expectation that anything material is going to come out from it,” John Lau, head of Asian equities at SEI Investments Co., said of the trade talks in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “If we get some kind of deal, any kind of deal, that would actually move markets.”

The European Stoxx 600 index rose 0.3%, with the eurozone banking index up 0.6% after it had slumped 2.8% in the previous session. European auto stocks stumbled following news that Volkswagen’s CEO and Chairman were charged with market manipulation over the emissions scandal, sending the company’s stock sliding and hitting the broader auto sector.

 

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks inched higher, led by energy producers while MSCI’s Asia index rose 0.1%, led by 0.6% gains in mainland Chinese shares after the vice head of China’s state planner said Beijing will step up efforts to stabilize growth. Markets in the region were mixed, with Japan and Singapore leading gains and Indonesia retreating. The Topix climbed 0.4% to its highest since April, with retail giants among the biggest boosts, after a three-day weekend. The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.3%, driven by Kweichow Moutai and Foxconn Industrial Internet. China has an abundant toolkit of monetary policy instruments, the Chinese central bank said in a statement. India’s Sensex fluctuated following its biggest two-day rally in 10 years, as Reliance Industries advanced and HDFC Bank declined.

Also overnight, Japan’s Foreign Minister Motegi said trade deal negotiations with US finished and that he doesn’t see much delay from goal of signing deal by end of the month, while a Foreign Ministry spokesman also said there is still have time to agree to a trade deal with US by end of the month. However, earlier reports suggested a deal may be delayed due to a disagreement regarding the auto tariffs and that an agreement will not be ready to sign when Japanese PM Abe meets US President Trump on Wednesday as it is still undergoing legal checks with the sides to sign separate documents confirming a final agreement.

Currency moves were mostly range bound with the exception of the pound: traders had waited for a Supreme Court ruling on UK Prime Minister’s Boris Johnson five-week suspension of parliament — a move known as prorogation in Westminster speak — and when it came it was dramatic and blunt. The move was “unlawful”. Sterling initially climbed as high $1.2487 on the view it would help prevent the UK being bundled toward a ‘no-deal’ Brexit at the end of October. But it quickly ran out of momentum and retreated to $1.2460, up a modest 0.2% on the day.

 

“I wasn’t surprised to see the currency hop higher but I also wasn’t surprised to see cable (pound vs the dollar) run out of steam ahead of $1.25,” said TD Securities’ European head of currency strategy Ned Rumpeltin.

Johnson is now likely to head to his Conservative party’s annual conference at the weekend and rally his troops in preparation for a likely national election which will be a bitter fight over Brexit.

“He is going to have to rally his base and he is going to do that around hard Brexit,” Rumpeltin said. “That will be a moment of clarity for the FX market. It will look at the polling and the Conservatives are leading in the polls.”

In geopolitical news, President Trump said we’re getting along well with North Korea and maybe we will be able to make a deal or maybe not. South Korea spy agency said US-North Korea working level talks will take place in 2-3 weeks and a summit is possible by year-end, while it added North Korea’s leader Kim could attend Korea-ASEAN summit in Busan in November. Trump also said he will discuss Iran in his UN speech today, while he added the US have a lot of pressure on Iran and that he is not looking for a mediator on Iran – Trump is scheduled to speak at 10:15ET. In response, Iran President Rouhani said our message to the world is peace and stability, although there were earlier comments from a senior official that Iran will never yield to the US and the US should lift sanctions if it wants to reduce tensions.

Among the main commodities, oil prices dipped on expectations of subdued demand although uncertainty remained about whether Saudi Arabia would be able to fully restore output after recent attacks on its oil facilities. Brent crude futures fell 40 cents to $64.37 a barrel by 0624 GMT. West Texas Intermediate futures were down 33 cents to $58.31.

“The demand side of the equation is back in focus,” said Michael McCarthy, senior market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney, pointing to sluggish manufacturing numbers in leading economies in Europe as well as Japan.

Boosting risk sentiment, on Monday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard who now is clearly gunning for Powell’s chairman seat by coming up with increasingly dovish proposals, said the central bank may need to ease monetary policy further to offset downside risks from trade conflicts and too-low inflation. Not all policy makers are on the same page, though. People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang said the country isn’t in a rush to add massive monetary stimulus, while Francois Villeroy de Galhau admitted he opposed the ECB’s decision to restart quantitative easing.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,003.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 390.44
  • MXAP up 0.07% to 159.32
  • MXAPJ up 0.06% to 509.14
  • Nikkei up 0.09% to 22,098.84
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,622.94
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 26,281.00
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 2,985.34
  • Sensex down 0.1% to 39,043.39
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.01% to 6,748.87
  • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,101.04
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to -0.576%
  • Euro unchanged at $1.0993
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 9.0 bps to 0.492%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to 0.131%
  • Brent futures down 0.9% to $64.20/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,520.39
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed to 98.64

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The U.K.’s top judges dealt an unprecedented legal rebuke to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, branding his controversial decision to suspend Parliament unlawful and giving lawmakers another chance to frustrate his plans for Brexit
  • German businesses gave mixed signals on economy on Tuesday, a day after a report showed manufacturing stuck in an ever deeper slump; the Ifo institute’s key business sentiment gauge rose slightly more than expected in September, recording its first gain in six months; however, all of the increase was due to the view of the current situation, and a measure of expectations continued to plunge, reaching the lowest level in a decade
  • The Chinese government has given new waivers to several domestic state and private companies to buy U.S. soybeans without being subject to retaliatory tariffs, according to people familiar with the situation
  • Japan and the U.S. have finished talks on a trade deal with no indication yet on how the two sides responded to Trump’s threat to slap tariffs on the $50 billion in cars and parts shipped by Japan to the U.S. annually
  • Anheuser-Busch InBev NV has pulled off the year’s second-biggest IPO the second time around, raising about $5 billion in listing its Asian unit in Hong Kong two months after scrapping the original share sale
  • The U.K. government has ordered an investigation into the role of Thomas Cook Group Plc’s management in the collapse of the 178-year-old tour operator

Asian equity markets traded indecisively following a similar close on Wall St where the major indices spent the day steadily recouping the opening losses brought on by weak Eurozone PMI data. ASX 200 (U/C) was choppy as outperformance in gold stocks and resilience in financials were counterbalanced by losses across the broader market, while Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) remained afloat on return from the extended weekend but with gains capped by a choppy currency and as officials scrambled to finalize a US-Japan trade deal amid uncertainty regarding auto tariffs. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) traded positively after continued PBoC liquidity efforts and as the central bank suggested there was still ample monetary policy tools, although advances were initially limited by the trade-related overhang as participants mulled over the recent ebbs and flows of the US-China trade saga ahead of next month’s high level talks. Finally, 10yr JGBs gained on return from the holiday closure amid the recent temperamental US-China trade headlines and indecisive risk tone in the region, while the BoJ were also present in the market today for JPY 810bln of JGBs in the belly to the short-end.

Top Asian News

  • PBOC’s Yi Says China Is ‘Not in a Rush’ to Ease Policy Massively
  • Global Investors Rethink India Stocks on Historic Tax Boost
  • Xiaomi Unveils First 5G Phone for China in Challenge to Huawei
  • The Danger When China’s Bull Market Owes So Much to So Few

Major European Bourses (Eurostoxx 50 +0.2%) are modestly firmer, albeit off highs, in tentative trade, following a mixed AsiaPac session. The FTSE 100 is the underperformer, under pressure from sterling strength after the UK Supreme Court ruled UK PM Johnson’s decision to prorogue parliament unlawful and, as such, prorogation voided. While stocks are mostly higher, the more defensive Utilities (+1.0%), Health Care (+0.9%) and Consumer Staples (+0.5%) sectors outperform, indicative of continued apprehension in wake of yesterday’s weak EZ PMI data, although the more risk sensitive IT and Financial are also higher. Materials (-0.5%) and Energy (-0.4%) are the laggards, with the latter pressure by lower crude prices. In terms of individual movers; Aviva (+0.8%) is higher on reports the Co. is looking to sell its Singapore and Vietnam businesses in a deal which could be valued at USD 2.5bln. Ryanair (+2.7%) is up, as the airline sector continues to gain in wake of Thomas Cook’s collapse and with the news that the co.’s cabin crew have voted in favour (approx. 80%) for a four-year Collective Labour Agreement. K+S (-4.3%) is lower after being downgraded at SocGen after the co. cut guidance yesterday, while Royal Mail (-2.8%) is under pressure after a downgrade at Liberum Capital. Finally, Volkswagen (-2.6%) sunk on the news thatGerman Prosecutors had indicted CEO Diess, Chairman Poetsch and the former CEO relating to the Diesel emissions scandal.

Top European News

  • German Manufacturing Drags Business Expectations to Decade Low
  • Scout24 Is Said to Kick Off Sale Process for Auto-Trading Unit
  • Danske’s Ex-CEO in Estonia Has Gone Missing; Police Start Hunt
  • HSBC Wins EU Court Fight Over $37M Fine for Euribor Rigging

In FX, GBP was firmer after the UK Supreme Court dealt a blow to UK PM Johnson after it ruled the decision as a court matter before announcing that the suspension was unlawful. With prorogation defeated, UK MPs will return to their seats and the parliamentary session will continue as Speaker John Bercow expectedly stated that the HoC should reconvene immediately. GBP/USD touched an intraday high of 1.2487 ahead of its 21 WMA at 1.2490, although the pair then returned to pre-announced levels of around 1.2450 amid unclarity regarding the next steps alongside some profit taking. It is worth nothing that, with parliament back in session, an anti-no deal majority could continue to frustrate government efforts to find a deal with the EU/try to force a no deal. Meanwhile, the Euro had relatively uninspiring day thus far as EUR/USD remains within a tight 1.0984-97 parameter with little impetus derived from the Ifo measures which mostly topped estimates (ex-expectations), although the institute noted that the outlook for the coming months has deteriorated and the domestic economy is likely to shrink in Q3 and stagnate in Q4, a similar comment mate by IHS yesterday. In terms of option expiries, EUR/USD sees 1.3bln at strike 1.10 and 1.1bln at strike 1.1025-30 for today’s NY cut.

  • AUD – Governor Lowe has aided the AUD to gain a 0.68+ status after noting that fundamental factors underpinning the longer-term outlook for the Australian economy remain strong and economy has reached a gentle turning point, a comment made at the last speech which signals that the Central Bank could stand pat on at the next meeting on October 1st. The Governor reiterated that the Board is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, make further progress towards full employment, and achieve the inflation target over time whilst inflation is expected to pick up, but to remain below the midpoint of the target range for some time to come. AUD/USD immediately spiked higher from 0.6784 to 0.6805 ahead of resistance at 0.6810 before consolidating around the 0.6800 mark.
  • SEK – The Swedish Crown currently stands as the G10 laggard amid slightly more dovish comments from Riksbank’s Governor Ingves who noted that rates are likely to increase at a “very slow” rate over the period ahead (vs. prior “should be possible to slowly raise rates”) whilst also acknowledging low interest rates and weaker sentiment abroad. First Deputy Governor Jansson added further to the dovish fire by highlighting low Swedish inflation numbers and worrying inflation expectations, whilst adding that he sees no appreciable upside for Swedish prices. EUR/SEK, in wake of the governor’s comments, bounced further from its 100 DMA (10.66) to an intraday high of 10.71 (ahead of resistance at 10.73) before retreating below the 10.70 mark.
  • EM – The Lira is staging another recovery with strength attributed to media reports that the US is said to make a new offer to Turkey regarding F-35s and Patriots system after the two Presidents’ phone call over the weekend. USD/TRY fell from an intraday high of 5.7208 to a current low of 5.6782 ahead of its 55 and 50 DMAs at 5.6779 and 5.6705 respectively. Later, Turkish President Erdogan will make a speech at the UNGA before meeting with his French counterpart Macron and UK PM Johnson and UN Secretary General Guterres

In commodities, WTI and Brent prices are weaker this morning on a rather tentative session thus far on a lack of specific newsflow for the complex, but notably ahead of the UNGA where US President Trump has stated he is to discuss Iran in his speech. He has also added that the US has lots of pressure on Iran, which does follow from the instigation of sanctions on the Iranian Bank by the US; as such, focus today will be on the remarks from Trump and if there is any reference to further sanctions or the prospect of more forceful action. In terms of scheduling proceedings at the UN are to formally begin at around 13:00BST with President Trump scheduled to arrive at the UN headquarters around 14:30BST. Elsewhere, focus turns to tonight’s API release where expectations are form a 0.6mln/bbl draw; though, ING note that the result may surprise market expectations due to the number of storm related refinery disruptions that have occurred recently. In terms of metals, Gold is little changed hovering around the USD 1520/oz mark within a tight USD 1.0/oz range for the session; ahead of risk factors including the UNGA and a number of Central Bank speakers. Separately, copper prices are overall little changed, retaining their non-committal tone from the Asia-Pac session; though the metal does remain comfortably above the USD 2.62/lb mark.

US Event Calendar

  • 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.25%, prior 0.2%
  • 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA, est. 0.1%, prior 0.04%; CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA, est. 2.1%, prior 2.13%
  • 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 1, prior 1
  • 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 133, prior 135.1

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Fiscal policy and money printing will inevitably need to be far more joined up in the future and yesterday’s European PMIs pushed us a very small way towards this realisation. The real problem came from the worrying declines in the services sectors in Germany and France, which had previously been the beacon of hope in the recent PMIs. Germany saw the services reading fall 2.3pts to 52.5 (vs. 54.3 expected). That is a nine-month low while there was no sign of improvement in the manufacturing sector, where the reading slumped another 2.1pts to 41.4 (vs. 44.0 expected) and to the lowest in the best part of ten years. That put the composite at 49.1 – the first sub-50 reading for Germany in this cycle and the lowest reading in 83 months, while it’s also worth flagging that the new orders prints were also very worrying including manufacturing new orders at 37.9 being the weakest outside of the peak of the GFC.

As for France, the services reading fell 1.8pts to 51.6 and the manufacturing 0.8pts to 50.3, while for the Eurozone as a whole the manufacturing reading slumped 1.4pts to 45.6 and the services 1.5pts to 52.0. Those are the lowest in 83 months and 8 months respectively. As a result, the composite Eurozone reading is now at 50.4 (vs. 52.0 expected) and the lowest in 75 months. So these services readings are clearly a very concerning sign for Europe and the end result is a barely positive run rate of growth in the Eurozone right now. Let’s see what today’s IFO brings.

Unsurprisingly, bond yields fell as soon as the data was released. By the close of play 10y Bunds finished -5.8bps lower at -0.583%, OATs -6.9bps lower and BTPs -9.3bps lower. Treasuries also rallied post the Euro PMIs but got an added kicker after the US services PMI printed at a weaker than expected 50.9 (vs. 51.4 expected) before reversing the day’s rally late to close unchanged and at the higher end of a 10bps intra-day range. In fairness the services PMI was a 0.2pt improvement from September but disappointed the market at the margin. On top of that, the fact that the employment component declined into contractionary territory at 49.1 (and to the lowest in 10 years) raised a few concerned eyebrows. In fact the two-month decline for services employment is the largest since the crisis. As for the manufacturing PMI, it rose 0.7pts to 51.0 (vs. 50.4 expected) – so a modest bounce but clearly still at low absolute levels.

The moves in equity markets, at least in the US, were more muted. The S&P 500 finished down -0.01% by the closing bell last night with the NASDAQ -0.06%. European equities suffered on the poor data releases however, with the STOXX 600 (-0.80%), DAX (-1.01%) and CAC (-1.06%) all closing lower. European banks led the declines, down -2.76% on the economic weakness and bond rally. Elsewhere, Gold (+0.35%) got a slight lift from the modest risk-off while Oil was +0.95%.

Meanwhile after the US close yesterday, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He would be visiting for talks next week. Mnuchin also said that “The good news” is that the Chinese have started buying U.S. agriculture products again; “it’s a sign of good gesture,”. He also added that US farmers are important in the China trade negotiations with intellectual property “the most important issue.” The visit can be seen as a slightly positive signal as the Vice Premier was originally scheduled to visit Washington the following week. Also, as we go to print Bloomberg has reported that the Chinese government has given new waivers to several domestic state and private companies to buy US soybeans without being subject to retaliatory tariffs. For now this is likely to increase hopes that trade progress is being made.

Talking of trade, the US and Japan have finished talks on an initial trade deal with Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi saying after the talks that he would explain more about the tariffs in two days’ time after a meeting of Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the sidelines of the UNGA. He also said that he didn’t think that auto tariffs would be a cause for concern.

This morning in Asia markets are largely heading higher with the Nikkei (+0.14%), Hang Seng (+0.32%), Shanghai Comp (+0.77%) and Kospi (+0.19%) all up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.24% while the 10y UST yield is down -2.1bps. In terms of overnight data releases, Japan’s preliminary September PMIs came out on the softer side with manufacturing standing at 48.9 (vs. 49.3 last month), marking 7 months of contraction this year, while services stood at 52.8 (vs. 53.3 last month) bringing the composite PMI to 51.5 (vs. 51.9 last month).

In other overnight news,the PBoC Governor Yi Gang said in a press briefing, with Finance Minister Liu Kun and National Bureau of Statistics head Ning Jizhe, that China must avoid massive stimulus, keep debt levels sustainable and maintain a prudent monetary policy stance while reiterating the central bank’s policy stance. The statement comes as concerns over China’s growth slowdown are mounting.

Back to yesterday, where ironically, both Draghi and Lagarde spoke post the weak PMIs although neither of their comments were particularly market moving. Draghi mostly repeated his ECB message, including suggesting that EU fiscal rules should be revisited, while Lagarde was asked on the limits of central bank policy but didn’t mention anything particularly ground-breaking. Over at the Fed, we heard from St Louis Fed President Bullard, who was alone in voting for a larger 50bp rate cut at last week’s meeting. He said that “instead of creeping down slowly I would prefer to get to where we need to be”, and voiced support for a further 25bp cut this year. Elsewhere, Williams spoke on the recent repo turmoil and said that it is “important that we examine these recent dynamics and their implications for the liquidity needs in relation to the overall amount of reserves held at the Fed”. Former NY Fed President Dudley also said he thinks the Fed will “strongly consider” a standing repo facility.

As for Brexit, sterling fell –0.39% as chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier made negative comments on a possible deal being reached, describing the UK’s current proposals on the backstop as “unacceptable.” Meanwhile the Labour Party conference rejected calls for the party to back remaining in the EU in a second referendum, instead supporting Jeremy Corbyn’s policy of a wait-and-see approach which translates as 1) get a better deal, 2) put it to a referendum, and then 3) decide whether to back the new Labour deal or remain. It’ll be interesting to see whether their position is a big political gamble or smart sitting on the fence. Given the European election results, I would have more thought the former. At their conference they also pledged to commit the UK to a 32-hour four day week within the decade. If successful I haven’t yet decided which day the EMR will cease to be published.

Looking at the day ahead, data out in Europe this morning includes September confidence indicators in France, the Sept IFO survey in Germany and August public finances and public sector net borrowing numbers in the UK. This afternoon in the US the highlight will likely be the September consumer confidence report, while the September Richmond Fed survey, July S&P CoreLogic house price data and July FHFA house price index are also to be released. Expect there to also be focus on comments from the ECB’s Villeroy and Guindos, while here in the UK the Supreme Court will be ruling this morning on PM Johnson’s suspension of Parliament.

 

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.26 POINTS OR 0.28%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 58.60 POINTS OR 0.22%   /The Nikkei closed UP 19.75 POINTS OR 0.09%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .07%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.1068 /Oil UP TO 58.13 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.95 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1068 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 67.1043 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

In a good will gesture China waives waivers for USA soybean purchases.

(Courtesy zerohedge)

China Grants New Tariff Waivers For US Soybean Purchases

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures have been rising for the past 14 days, a total of +6.64%, on reports, China is granting new waivers to several domestic state and private companies to purchase U.S. soybeans without being subject to tariffs, according to Bloomberg. The companies received waivers for between 2 million to 3 million tons, sources told Bloomberg. Collectively, these firms bought 20 cargoes, or about 1.2 million ton of the soybeans from the U.S. Pacific Northwest on Monday. 

It depends on the news source to the exact quantity, Reuters is reporting that Chinese importers only bought 10 cargoes, or about 600,000 tons, expected to be shipped from Pacific Northwest export terminals from Oct. to Dec.

Bloomberg said state-owned buyers Cofco and Sinograin, as well as five other crushers, were awarded waivers this month to purchase U.S. soybeans.

Sources said the waivers were granted after a meeting last week with working officials; purchases of agriculture products like soybeans are seen as kind gestures ahead of a trade meeting between U.S. and China next month.

As shown below, soybeans have enjoyed a wave of buying over the past two weeks on expectations of a similar gesture of goodwill by China and positive trade war news flow.

A trade deal appeared distant late last week after Chinese officials canceled a visit to the Central and Midwest states, but confirmed Monday that the cancellation was non-trade related.

Monday’s 10 to 20 cargoes, or 600,000 to 1.2 million tons of soybeans will leave Pacific Northwest terminals in the coming months. These are some of the most significant soybean purchases since Beijing raised import tariffs by 25% on U.S. soybeans last summer in retaliation for duties on other Chinese goods. 

Yet while China is repurchasing U.S. soybeans, Argentina’s Agriculture minister confirmed Monday that China has “approved the first seven crushing plants in Argentina to begin exporting soymeal to the world’s biggest consumer of the livestock feed,” reported Reuters.

Last month, we reported how China wants to build a grains ‘superhighway‘ in the South American country by dredging the Parana River, it will allow large bulk vessels to transport soybeans from the Pampas farm belt to the South Atlantic to the Pacific, and ultimately to China.

While the Trump administration celebrates China’s latest agriculture purchases – keep in mind that China wants to become fully independent from the U.S., in terms of agriculture sourcing, which is why it’s hedging itself with Argentina.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

In a landmark ruling, the uK Supreme Court ruled that Johnson’s suspension of Parliament is illegal.  This may hurt his chances of a no deal Brexit.  It looks like his only option is an election and let the citizens decide the makeup of Parliament and Brexit

(zerohedge)

In Landmark Ruling, Top UK Court Says Johnson’s Suspension Of Parliament Illegal

Update: Bercow has ruled that Parliament will resume on Wednesday following Tuesday’s landmark UK Supreme Court decision invalidating Johnson’s suspension of Parliament as ‘unconstitutional’ – as if it never happened.

Watch Bercow call Parliament back to order:

Ian Pannell

@IanPannell

Happening now: Speaker @johnbercow1 orders plmt to continue business tomorrow at 11

Embedded video

Parliament will resume at 11:30 am on Wednesday, but without PMQs. All of this is happening while Johnson is in New York trying to negotiate with EU leaders on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. For his part, the PM has said he won’t resign.

But some are even calling for his top advisor, Dominic Cummings, who has become closely associated with Johnson’s Brexit policy and the decision to ‘prorogue’ parliament, which Nigel Farage called “the worst political decision ever.”

Nigel Farage

@Nigel_Farage

The calling of a Queen’s Speech and prorogation is the worst political decision ever. Dominic Cummings must go.

As the pound continued to climb on Tuesday, gaining more than 0.5%, Danske bank warned that the currency’s upside on the news will ultimately be ‘limited’. “Optimism can be fleeting,” said strategists Mikael Olai Milhoj and Lars Merkin. “This ruling does not really take us closer to or further from a (no-)deal, and hence it should not move much.”

* * *

In a landmark ruling that delivers what Bloomberg called an “unprecedented” defeat for Boris Johnson and his Brexit strategy, Britain’s Supreme Court has ruled on Tuesday that the prime minister’s decision to suspend Parliament for five weeks was unlawful.

Now, the Speakers of the Commons and Lords simply need to summon ministers and peers to order and Parliament will be back in session as if it had never been suspended. The Speaker of the Commons is still John Bercow, though he recently announced his plans to resign.

“This was not a normal prorogation in the run up to a Queen’s speech,” said Lady Brenda Hale, the president of the Supreme Court of the UK. The decision did prevent Parliament from carrying out its duties, the court decided. Hale also found that Johnson hasn’t furnished “an explanation” for such extreme action.

Hale added that “the effect on the function of our democracy” from Johnson’s decision “was extreme.”

Here’s the key excerpt from the court’s judgment, courtesy of the FT:

This Court has already concluded that the Prime Minister’s advice to Her Majesty was unlawful, void and of no effect. This means that the Order in Council to which it led was also unlawful, void and of no effect and should be quashed. This means that when the Royal Commissioners walked into the House of Lords it was as if they walked in with a blank sheet of paper. The prorogation was also void and of no effect. Parliament has not been prorogued. This is the unanimous judgment of all 11 Justices.

It is for Parliament, and in particular the Speaker and the Lord Speaker to decide what to do next. Unless there is some Parliamentary rule of which we are unaware, they can take immediate steps to enable each House to meet as soon as possible. It is not clear to us that any step is needed from the Prime Minister, but if it is, the court is pleased that his counsel have told the court that he will take all necessary steps to comply with the terms of any declaration made by this court.

Johnson insisted that he had every right to prorogue Parliament for the five weeks before a speech from the Queen on Oct. 14.

It’s unclear what Johnson plans to do once Parliament is recalled – proroguing parliament for five weeks was a desperate gambit to try and strongarm the UK into a ‘no deal’ exit on Oct. 31. But with Parliament back in session, it’s looking very likely that opponents of a no-deal exit will succeed in forestalling a ‘no deal’ Brexit if Johnson can’t negotiate some kind of breakthrough deal with the EU. With the Tories in chaos following a welter of defections and expulsions, it’s looking like a general election might be the only way forward, though it might not deliver the results Johnson hopes.

As the odds of ‘no deal’ are once again dimming, the pound is on an upswing…

… however according to Danske Bank strategists Mikael Olai Milhoj and Lars Merklin, the pound’s gains on the Supreme Court ruling will be limited, noting that “optimism can be fleeting,” say strategists.

“This ruling does not really take us closer to or further from a (no-)deal, and hence it should not move much” the said, adding that “Bigger moves will come once we get going with the election and thus have a better idea of who will win, and what the corresponding (future) Brexit policy will be.”

END
GERMANY
Extremely important..it is something that we have been pointing out to you for several months.  Germany’s economy is faltering terribly.  Its yield curve is starting to invert.  And with Germany collapsing so is the Euro project
(courtesy Tom Luongo)

 

The Collapse In Germany Is Real… And Accelerating

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats’n’Guns blog,

Back in April I told you that Germany was a “Dead Economy Walking.” Today, I get to tell you that it’s legs are gone.

Yesterday morning’s manufacturing PMI print was the worst news Angela Merkel could have imagined, 41.4. A figure so awful dogs will want to roll on it.

 

Overall, Germany’s economy at the purchasing manager’s level is contracting. And with Merkel masking a massive tax increase as a political cave to the rising Greens the future for Germany’s economic growth looks as bad as the following chart.

Aside from the obvious, the big takeaway from this chart is the consistency with which analysts who are paid a lot more than me over-estimate this number. It’s a brilliant depiction of confirmation bias.

And you can see why this happens. Conventional wisdom tells us that an accommodative central bank, and the ECB’s negative interest rates are the height of accommodation, should support continued manufacturing growth because credit is cheap.

But, it doesn’t if there’s no capacity for the buyers of German goods to take on more debt. Negative interest rates are supposed to increase currency flow because who wants to lose money on their savings, right?

Paging Larry Summers (you incompetent halfwit!) that’s not what they actually signal to the markets. They signal that things suck and the central bank has no confidence in the economy.

It should be no surprise to anyone that the ECB became dovish the minute they got the data that Germany’s economy was shrinking. Because without Germany expanding exports there can be no support for a stable euro, regardless of Brexit.

And as the Remainiacs continue to play games to scuttle Brexit their arguments look weak as it is obvious to all that Europe needs the U.K. more than the other way around.

But, hey, don’t let facts get in the way of some people’s religion.

In fact, every time they try to create a headline to blame things on Brexit uncertainty, it further highlights just how much it is they who are creating it by dragging out the process.

Yesterday’s data from Europe hit the markets hard. Oil prices resumed their fall on the heels of this news and speculation that Iranian President Rouhani will meet with both President Trump and U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly this week.

Though Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zavir ruled out a meeting with Trump, the Iranians prepped the stage with Johnson by releasing the U.K. tanker Stena Impero.

Though I suspect nothing will come of that while Johnson is embroiled in Brexit.

The Euro lost $1.10 and gold resumed its rise in all currencies, including the U.S. dollar.

And with the dollar funding markets in serious turmoil, Martin Armstrong reminds us that both the Fed and the ECB are trapped. The Fed will keep their emergency repo window open until October 10th.

With the rising pressure outside the USA to eliminate cash in order to confiscate money from their citizens to support the broadening collapse of socialism, there has been a MAJOR panic pushing into the dollar.

Despite the fact that early in 2019 the headlines were that foreign governments were dumping US debt spinning this into stories that the dollar would crash. In reality, selling of US debt at that point in time was an effort to stop the dollar’s rise.

Martin has always been right that falling confidence in Europe and the Euro are what’s driving the current dynamic of strong U.S. asset prices.

Last week I speculated that there’s a connection between this window and the upcoming $200+ billion in auctions at the U.S. Treasury this week.

The primary dealer banks have to be flush enough with cash to ensure they could take down their part of the issuance because any tailing in the yield will be bad.

The dollar funding crisis is real and accelerating as is the implosion of the German economy. And it’s not just Germany anymore. The French PMI print was terrible and the whole of the composite PMI for the Eurozone teeters on contraction.

What everyone needs to worry about now is the reversal against the huge move into European sovereign debt. These bond yields have defied gravity all year and cannot be sustained against a falling euro.

The German yield curve is beginning to rise at the short end. The inversion is worsening. U.S. Treasury demand is still rising.

Is it any wonder that the European Council is finally beginning to change its tune about a potential deal with Boris Johnson on Brexit?

Germany is in trouble and with it the entire European Project. Good.

*  *  *

Join my Patreon if you want to stay up on the collapse of the Euro-zone Install Brave if you want to keep Google from letting you talk about

end

Mish Shedlock:  an article in German translated shows how negative rates killed the German banks

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Mish: Negative Interest Rates Are Socio-Political Poison

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The interest rate business model is dead. Negative interest rates killed it, with no replacement in sight.

Anne Kunz and Holger Zschäpitz co-authored an excellent article for Welt (in German) called the Interest Rate Business Model is Dead.

Here are some excerpts via Google translate with many of my own modifications. For example, the title itself is my translation, not Google’s.

Google has the title as “Business Model With the Interest is Dead“.

I made an educated guess that Google’s title isn’t quite right.

I picked up the article from this Tweet.

Translation errors below may be Google’s or mine. I took a fair amount of liberty, adding some words, deleting others, or changing the word order so the result makes sense to me.

Apologies to the authors for any of my errors.

Interest Rate Business Model is Dead

The cash cow bank lending model is dead, buried by the European Central Bank (ECB).

The coup de grace came at the recent meeting. As ECB President Mario Draghi squeezed the negative interest rate for banks even deeper.

The ECB will restart its bond purchase program in November. This time, without a time limit. Thus, the monetary authorities have permanently chained the long-term interest rate at a low level and cut the profit opportunities of the financial sector to a level that isn’t sustainable. For a long time, institutions have made good money from the difference between long-term and short-term interest rates.That time is now over.

In 2016, Commerzbank employed more than 50,000 people. CEO Martin Zielke wants to close one-fifth of the 1,000 branches and even wants to part with an important source of income including his Polish subsidiary MBank. The workforce should be reduced to around 38,000 by the end of 2020.

The sale of Mbank is a desperate attempt at salvation.

In terms of stock market value, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are now loosely hanged even by more regionally active institutions from Norway and Sweden. [That is a direct translation that reads wrong but I do not know how to fix it].

Even the once proud Landesbanken is a restructuring case. This is a dangerous development.

“With the allowance, the ECB has relieved the German banks in the short term by around 500 million euros. At the same time, banks will be burdened considerably by the continuation of the low interest rates for an indefinite period, “says Peter Barkow, financial expert at Barkow Consulting. “Especially the German banks are very much dependent on income from the long-term investment of customer deposits at higher interest rates, called maturity transformation. This strategy only works very limited, “warns the expert. [The allowance refers to the ECB not charging banks a portion of the negative interest on excess reserves]

However, the corresponding earnings impact on the banks will only be delayed. “Many German banks have to find new sources of income in the medium term. In the short term, a further reduction in costs will probably be necessary, “says Barkow.

For more than a hundred years, banks lived on long-term lending or investing in securities their clients entrusted to them in the short term .

Historically, banks made money out of time. If time no longer has a price, because there is no more interest, nothing can be earned. Ten-year Bunds yielded around 1.5 percentage points more than two-year issues in historical terms. Currently, the difference is just under 0.2 percentage points.

In the multi-billion loan portfolios, the institutions are losing a lot of money due to ECB policy. Accordingly, the shares of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank have fallen in sync with the interest rate differential. How dramatic the situation is for the banks, the analysts of JP Morgan have written down.

In a 120-page analysis, JP Morgan analysts calculated what effects the ECB policy will have on the banks. They used Japan as an example. Japan has had negative interest rates for some time now and there institutions have been unable to earn anything for two decades with time. The JP Morgan analysts’ conclusion: Interest margins could continue to shrink and continue to weigh on the earnings side.

“The negative interest rate policy of the ECB is ruining the financial system and is a socio-political poison,” says Frank Kohler, CEO of Sparda-Bank Berlin. The financial system is absurd if we have to explain to the children that money has a negative value – and thus debt is good, because you may not have to repay everything.

Socio-Political Poison

Bingo.

Thanks to Anne Kunz and Holger Zschäpitz for an excellent article and apologies again for any translation errors I may have made.

end

The CEO of Volkswagen has been charged with market manipulation in the emissions scandal as the shares of Volkswagen stumble

(zerohedge)

Volkswagen CEO, Chairman Charged With Market Manipulation In Emissions Scandal, Shares Tumble

Four years after the EPA blew the lid off emissionsgate by accusing Volkswagen of selling diesel cars equipped with ‘defeat devices’ to game emissions tests, two of the carmaker’s former top executives have been hit with criminal charges in their native Germany.

The revelation, which quickly erupted into a worldwide scandal, caused Volkswagen shares to erase nearly half of their value in the days over the next few days.

Herbert Diess

Now, Volkswagen AG Chief Executive Herbert Diess, Chairman Hans-Dieter Pötsch, and former CEO Martin Winterkorn have been charged with misleading shareholders. Since there’s a securities fraud angle to most major corporate crimes, it’s not surprising to see prosecutors going with the angle that the executives failed to inform shareholders about their company’s misdeeds, which would soon be disclosed.

According to WSJ, the “surprise” indictment shows prosecutors in Braunschweig, the district that has jurisdiction over Volkswagen’s Wolfsburg headquarters, clearly don’t buy the company’s defense: That its top executives had no way of knowing that the US investigation would lead to such massive losses.

According to Bloomberg, Bafin, Germany’s financial market regulator, started the probe back in 2016. At first, it asked prosecutors to only investigate Winterkorn and Diess. But three months later, Poetsch was added as a suspect. Diess was chief of the VW brand at the time and had joined the company in July 2015, just months before dieselgate erupted.

‘Surprise’ indeed. Volkswagen shares were off 3.3% on the news as markets digested the possibility of more legal problems ahead for the carmaker.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN

For those of you who thought that Iran was living up to its nuclear deal..guess again. Gatestone provides the evidence that they were enriching uranium from Day no 1 of the deal

(Dr Rafizadeh/Gatestone)

 

Evidence That Iran Violated The Nuclear Deal Since Day One?

Authored by Dr. Majid Rafizadeh via The Gatestone Institute,

  • The IAEA first ignored the reports about Iran’s undeclared clandestine nuclear facilities. This should not come as a surprise: the IAEA has a long history of misreporting the Islamic Republic’s compliance with the deal and declining to follow up on credible reports about Iran’s illicit nuclear activities.
  • New evidence shows that Iran’s theocratic establishment was most likely violating the nuclear agreement since the day that Obama’s administration and Tehran struck the deal in 2015.
  • The international community would truly do itself a great service to recognize that the nuclear deal was nothing more than a pro-mullah agreement which provided Iran’s ruling clerics with billions of dollars to pursue their anti-American, anti-Semitic, anti-Iranian people and pro-terror activities, while simultaneously providing cover for Iran to pursue its nuclear ambitions.

The Iranian government is advancing its nuclear program at a faster pace. Recently, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) declared that Tehran took the third step in increasing its nuclear activities by activating advanced centrifuges: 20 IR-4 and 20 IR-6 centrifuges.

The previous two steps that Tehran took includedincreasing the enriched uranium stockpile beyond the 300kg cap, which was set by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and enriching uranium to levels beyond the limit of 3.67 percent.

As part of its rush to a nuclear breakout capability, the Islamic Republic of Iran is also expanding its research and development work beyond the limitations set by the JCPOA. Iranian nuclear agency spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi told a televised news conference, “We have started lifting limitations on our Research and Development imposed by the deal … It will include development of more rapid and advanced centrifuges.”

The ruling mullahs are claiming that Iran’s recent moves and violations of the nuclear deal are the fault of the US government, because the Trump administration withdrew from the JCPOA, but the claim is a lie. New evidence shows that Iran’s theocratic establishment was most likely violating the nuclear agreement since the day the Obama administration and Tehran struck the deal in 2015.

To clarify: Do you remember when the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Yukiya Amano immediately to inspect an “atomic warehouse” in Iran last year?

Netanyahu stated in his speech to the UN General Assembly that Iran had a “secret atomic warehouse for storing massive amounts of equipment and material from Iran’s secret nuclear weapons program.” Tehran claimed that the warehouse, which is located in a village (Turquz Abad) in the suburbs of Tehran, was a place where carpets were cleaned.

At the same time, two non-partisan organizations based in Washington, DC — the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) and the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) — released detailed reports about Iran’s undeclared clandestine nuclear facilities as well.

The IAEA first ignored the reports. This should not come as a surprise: the IAEA has a long history of misreporting the Islamic Republic’s compliance with the deal and declining to follow up on credible reports about Iran’s illicit nuclear activities. Iran’s clandestine nuclear sites in Natanz and Arak were revealed by the opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran.

In any event, after a significant amount of pressure was imposed on the IAEA, and after the IAEA’s chief passed away and Iran was reportedly able to moving the suspected materials out of the secret nuclear facility, inspection of the site was recently implemented.

What was the outcome? Even though the Iranian leaders had cleaned up the facility, the IAEA’s inspectors were able to detect traces of radioactive uranium at the site. Israel’s warning and other reports had proved accurate.

Now, Tehran is declining to answer the IAEA’s questions about the secret facility. More importantly, one of the most basic requirements of the nuclear deal (while it lasted) was that Iran had to reveal its nuclear activities to the IAEA — a condition with it even overtly failed to comply.

In other words, the detection of radioactive particles in Turquz Abad, Iran’s reluctance to answer simple questions about the secret facility and non-partisan evidence about Iran’s nuclear activities at the location, all point to the fact that Tehran was most likely violating the nuclear deal since it was reached.

Where, you may ask, are the strong advocates of the nuclear deal after the new evidence revealed that Iran has long been violating the nuclear deal and pursuing its nuclear ambitions? They are silent.

The international community would truly do itself a great service to recognize that the nuclear deal was nothing more than a pro-mullah agreement which provided Iran’s ruling clerics with billions of dollars to pursue their anti-American, anti-Semitic, anti-Iranian people and pro-terror activities, while simultaneously providing cover for Iran to pursue its nuclear ambitions.

END
The UK, France and Germany all state that the evidence is clear that IRAN  attacked the Saudis.  However they cut short of a military strike. The UK follows Trump on a better deal if Iran wants to play ball.
(zerohedge)

UK, France, Germany Say It’s “Clear” Iran Attacked Saudis; Johnson Backs New ‘Trump Deal’

Though by now Washington appears no closer to military strikes on Iran than it was before the Sept. 14 Saudi Aramco attack, a joint statement by Britain, France, and Germany has brought the kind of international allied consensus the US administration is looking for.

The three European countries announced it was “clear” Iran was responsible for the twin aerial strikes on the facilities, however, stopped short of calling for any military retaliation, instead urged Iran to reengage negotiations on its nuclear and missile programs. The statement does warn of “risk of a major conflict” and underscores making “collective efforts towards regional stability and security” which includes bringing the Yemen war to an end.

 

Johnson, Merkel and Macron held a trilateral meeting at the UN Headquarters. Image source: EPA via Al Jazeera

“The time has come for Iran to accept a long term negotiation framework for its nuclear program, as well as regional security issues, which include its missile programs,” the three governments said. Iran has in the past said its missile programs complied with international norms and remains a non-starter in any negotiations with the US or its allies.

Interestingly, the statement condemns Iran for the attack but also admits the investigation is ongoing. According to the statement:

We condemn in the strongest terms the attacks on oil facilities on Saudi territory on September 14th, 2019 in Abqaiq and Khurais, and reaffirm in this context our full solidarity with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its population.

It is clear to us that Iran bears responsibility for this attack. There is no other plausible explanation. We support ongoing investigations to establish further details.

Citing no evidence, the statement surprisingly appeals to there supposedly being “no other plausible explanation” — despite many possibilities being documented by analysts and international publications.

The joint statement was issued upon French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and German Chancellor Angela Merkel meeting during the annual United Nations assembly of world leaders this week, where they discussed the Iran nuclear deal and ratcheting tensions in a trilateral dialogue.

The UK’s Johnson has urged Iran to back a new “Trump deal” after Washington backed out of the 2015 nuclear deal in May 2018. “If it was a bad deal — and I’m willing to accept that, it had many, many defects — then let’s do a better deal,” the prime minister told NBC News

This marks a sharp change in Britain’s rhetoric on the JCPOA, which up until Johnson’s interview had been to follow the rest of Europe in seeking to uphold its terms. 

 end

6.Global Issues

A good commentary as Nouriel Roubini outlines 4 collison areas where the game of “chicken”| is being played out

(Nouriel Roubini)

 

Dr.Doom’s Four Collision Courses For The Global Economy

Authored by Nouriel Roubini via Project Syndicate,

In the classic game of “chicken,” two drivers race directly toward each other, and the first to swerve is the “loser.” If neither swerves, both will probably die. In the past, such scenarios have been studied to assess the risks posed by great-power rivalries. In the case of the Cuban missile crisis, for example, Soviet and American leaders were confronted with the choice of losing face or risking a catastrophic collision. The question, always, is whether a compromise can be found that spares both parties their lives and their credibility.

There are now several geo-economic games of chicken playing out. In each case, failure to compromise would lead to a collision, most likely followed by a global recession and financial crisis.

  • The first and most important contest is between the United States and China over trade and technology.
  • The second is the brewing dispute between the US and Iran.
  • In Europe, there is the escalating brinkmanship between British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the European Union over Brexit.
  • Finally, there is Argentina, which could end up on a collision course with the International Monetary Fund after the likely victory of the Peronist Alberto Fernández in next month’s presidential election.

In the first case, a full-scale trade, currency, tech, and cold war between the US and China would push the current downturn in manufacturing, trade, and capital spending into services and private consumption, tipping the US and global economies into a severe recession. Similarly, a military conflict between the US and Iran would drive oil prices above $100 per barrel, triggering stagflation (a recession with rising inflation). That, after all, is what happened in 1973 during the Yom Kippur War, in 1979 following the Iranian Revolution, and in 1990 after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait.

A blowup over Brexit might not by itself cause a global recession, but it would certainly trigger a European one, which would then spill over to other economies. The conventional wisdom is that a “hard” Brexit would lead to a severe recession in the United Kingdom but not in Europe, because the UK is more reliant on trade with the EU than vice versa. This is naive. The eurozone is already suffering a sharp slowdown and is in the grip of a manufacturing recession; and the Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, and Germany – which is nearing a recession – do in fact rely heavily on the UK export market.

With eurozone business confidence already depressed as a result of Sino-American trade tensions, a chaotic Brexit would be the last straw. Just imagine thousands of trucks and cars lining up to fill out new customs paperwork in Dover and Calais. Moreover, a European recession would have knock-on effects, undercutting growth globally and possibly triggering a risk-off episode. It could even lead to new currency wars, if the value of the euro and pound were to fall too sharply against other currencies (not least the US dollar).

A crisis in Argentina could also have global consequences. If Fernández defeats President Mauricio Macri and then scuttles the country’s $57 billion IMF program, Argentina could suffer a repeat of its 2001 currency crisis and default. That could lead to capital flight from emerging markets more generally, possibly triggering crises in highly indebted Turkey, Venezuela, Pakistan, and Lebanon, and further complicating matters for India, South Africa, China, Brazil, Mexico, and Ecuador.

In all four scenarios, both sides want to save face. US President Donald Trump wants a deal with China, in order to stabilize the economy and markets before his re-election bid in 2020; Chinese President Xi Jinping also wants a deal to halt China’s slowdown. But neither wants to be the “chicken,” because that would undermine their domestic political standing and empower the other side. Still, without a deal by year’s end, a collision will become likely. As the clock ticks down, a bad outcome becomes more likely.

Similarly, Trump thought he could bully Iran by abandoning the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and imposing severe sanctions. But the Iranians have responded by escalating their regional provocations, knowing full well that Trump cannot afford a full-scale war and the oil-price spike that would result from it. Moreover, Iran does not want to enter negotiations that would give Trump a photo opportunity until some sanctions are lifted. With both sides reluctant to blink first – and with both Saudi Arabia and Israel egging on the Trump administration – the risk of an accident is rising.

Having perhaps been inspired by Trump, Johnson naively thought that he could use the threat of a hard Brexit to bully the EU into offering a better exit deal than what his predecessor had secured. But now that Parliament has passed legislation to prevent a hard Brexit, Johnson is playing two games of chicken at once. A compromise with the EU on the Irish “backstop” is still possible before the October 31 deadline, but the probability of de facto hard-Brexit scenario is also increasing.

In Argentina, both sides are posturing. Fernández wants a clear electoral mandate, and is campaigning on the message that Macri and the IMF are to blame for all the country’s problems. The IMF’s leverage is obvious: if it withholds permanently the next $5.4 billion tranche of funding and ends the bailout, Argentina will suffer another financial collapse. But Fernández has leverage, too, because a $57 billion debt is a problem for any creditor; the IMF’s ability to help other distressed economies would be constrained by an Argentinean collapse. As in the other cases, a face-saving compromise is better for all, but a collision and financial meltdown cannot be ruled out.

The problem is that while compromise requires both parties to de-escalate, the tactical logic of chicken rewards crazy behavior. If I can make it look like I have removed my steering wheel, the other side will have no choice but to swerve. But if both sides throw out their steering wheels, a collision becomes unavoidable.

The good news is that in the four scenarios above, each side is still talking to the other, or may be open to dialogue under some face-saving conditions.

The bad news is that all sides are still very far from any kind of agreement.

Worse, there are big egos in the mix, some of whom might prefer to crash than be perceived as a chicken.

The future of the global economy thus hinges on four games of daring that could go either way.

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0998 UP .0004 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.68 UP 0.093 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2475   DOWN   0.0042  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3259 DOWN .0009 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 4 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.0998 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 8.26 POINTS OR 0.28% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 58.60 POINTS OR 0.22%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,07%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 58.60 POINTS OR 0.22%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.26 POINTS OR 0.28%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 07% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 422.94  POINTS OR 1.97%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1520.55

silver:$18.52-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.70 !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.15 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 98.59 DOWN 1 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.14% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.23%  DOWN 2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.12%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.83 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 61 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.60% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.43% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1002  UP     .0007 or 7 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.28 DOWN .310 OR YEN UP 31  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2472 UP .0039 POUND UP 39  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 11 basis points to 1.3251

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.1164    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.1183  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7927 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.23%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 7 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.66 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.11 DOWN 6 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.51 DOWN 9  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 19.75  0.49%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 25.80 POINTS OR .21%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 1.92 POINTS 0.03%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 32.70 POINTS or 0.36%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 22.80 POINTS OR 0.10%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 57.74 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 63.61 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    63.87  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.03 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 03 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.60 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  57.28//

 

 

BRENT :  62.79

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.63  DOWN 10 BASIS PTS…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.09..DOWN 9 BASIS PTS…

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1021 ( UP 28   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.99 DOWN .600 (YEN UP 60 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.33 DOWN 10 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2494 UP 61  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7006

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.94   DOWN 0.10 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 10 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3239 UP 22 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.1164  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.1079 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.60%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 2141.13 POINTS OR 0.52%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 118.83 POINTS OR 1.46%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  17.25 CLOSED UP 2.34 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.106%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Slammed On Sentiment Slump, Trade Turmoil, & Impeachment Anxiety

What started off as a positive day thanks to overnight algos liftathon after TSY Secretary Mnuchin spoke on Fox Business and broke old news about China talks, ended up rather ugly as the triple whammy of consumer confidence crumbling, Trump talking down China in his UN speech, and battling impeachment headlines sparked risk-off moves in stocks and a bid for bonds and gold.

What the algos saw…

  • 1605ET BUY – Mnuchin on China Vice Premier talks.
  • 1000ET SELL – Cons Confidence.
  • 1020ET SELL – Trump dissing China at UN
  • 1210ET SELL – Pelosi says she will make an announcement, Impeachment fears rise.
  • 1410ET BUY – Trump to release transcript of Ukraine call, reducing impeachment odds.
  • 1440ET SELL – Pelosi formal impeachment headlines.
  • 1544ET BUY – Kashkari pushes 50bps rate cut

However, as @Sentimentrader noted, the outcome of impeachment inquiries is uncertain…

All of which makes you think…

 

Small Caps and Nasdaq were the day’s worst performers…

 

Nasdaq and Small Caps broke below the key 50DMA and tested the 100DMA…

Momentum stocks were manically bid early on…

Source: Bloomberg

“Most Shorted” stocks were hammered from the open and basically never looked back…

Source: Bloomberg

China stocks ramped overnight early on the Mnuchin trade headlines…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks opened higher also, but faded as confidence data and Trump UN speech hit…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields plunged today (down 8-10bps across the curve) – biggest yield drop in a month…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields are now down 6 of the last 7 days, testing back towards 2.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve collapsed today…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar plunged today back into the range…

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan tossed and turned on the heels of the China headlines…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were a bloodbath…

Source: Bloomberg

With Bitcoin back to $8500, breaking its triangle…

Source: Bloomberg

And a longer-term triangle suggests some more pain perhaps…

Source: Bloomberg

Mixed bag in commodityland today with gold outperforming as silver, crude, and copper dropped…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI tumbled further today on Saudi production headlines…

Gold jumped back up above $1540…

Finally, it looks like we’re gonna need some more liquidity to keep this potemkin stock market alive…

Source: Bloomberg

Because fun-durr-mentals won’t do it…

Source: Bloomberg

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

S&P Falls Back Below 3,000; Gold Spikes As Trump Taunts China At UN

Momentum is dramatically bid this morning as bond yields and bitcoin tumble and the S&P 500 reverses early gains following disappointing consumer confidence data and Trump hitting China at The United Nations…

  • *TRUMP SAYS CHINA HASN’T ADOPTED PROMISED REFORMS
  • *TRUMP SAYS CHINA USES HEAVY STATE SUBSIDIES, STEALS IP
  • *TRUMP SAYS WTO NEEDS DRASTIC CHANGE
  • *TRUMP SAYS HE MET WITH MICRON CEO, HEARD OF IP THEFT IN CHINA
  • *TRUMP SAYS WORLD EXPECTS BEIJING TO HONOR TREATY ON HONG KONG

Value factor is being sold as momo goes fomo…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields are also diving, below yesterday’s lows…

Source: Bloomberg

And Bitcoin is being dumped to near one-month lows…

Source: Bloomberg

As the S&P 500 loses 3k again…

And gold spikes back above $1530…

 end

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Impeachment Scare? Gold Spikes As Stocks & Bond Yields Extend Drop

The S&P is back to post-Powell lows (before his QE4 hint) following weak macro data, Trump’s China comments, andincreasing likeliness of a Trump impeachment proceeding. Bonds and bullion are bid…

 

Nasdaq and Small Caps are testing their 50-day moving-average…

 

30Y Yields are tumbling…

 

Source: Bloomberg

And gold is soaring…

 

Since Jay Powell dropped his rate-cut promises, things are not going well…

 

ii)Market data/USA

USA confidence tumbles to 2019 lows

(zerohedge)

Americans’ Confidence “Expectations” Tumble To 2019 Lows

In August, Americans were the most confident about the current situation since November 2000 (as expectations for the future dipped), but headline confidence was expected to slide in September and did, far more than expected:

  • Headline consumer confidence fell to 125.1 vs 133.0 last month
  • Present situation confidence fell to 169.0 vs 176.0 last month
  • Consumer confidence expectations fell to 95.8 vs 106.4 last month

This is the biggest drop in ‘expectations’ since Dec 2018 as stocks plummeted.

Source: Bloomberg

The Labor Differential indicator dipped (after exploding higher in August back near record highs).

All age cohorts saw confidence slide, but higher income Americans confidence dropped notably as lower incomes rose modestly.

However, this level of decoupling between savings and confidence has historically not ended well…

Source: Bloomberg

Still, as long as The Fed and Trump can keep jawboning stocks near recorder and recorder highs, what could go wrong?

 end
Another good sign that the uSA economy is faltering as home price growth is slumping on all major cities.
(Case Shiller)

US Major City Home Price Growth Slumps To Weakest In 7 Years

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller’s 20-City Composite price index rose just 2.00% YoY in July – the weakest growth since August 2012.

The MoM rise of just 0.02% notably missed expectations of a 0.1% rise and the drop from a revised 2.16% YoY was also a sizable acceleration in the decline.

Source: Bloomberg

Nationally, home-price gains remained steady, rising at a 3.2% pace.

“Year-over-year home prices continued to gain, but at ever more modest rates,” Philip Murphy, global head of index governance at S&P Dow Jones, said in a statement.

“Gains remained positive in low-single digits in most cities, and other fundamentals indicate renewed housing demand.”

With a six-month lag, there is hope though that the collapse in mortgage rates may help home prices rebound once again…

Source: Bloomberg

All 20 cities in the index showed year-over-year gains except for Seattle, where prices were down 0.6% from a year earlier. Phoenix, Las Vegas and Charlotte reported the best annual gains among the 20 cities, led by a 5.8% gain in Phoenix.

end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

The first of the term repo auction has just been concluded as it is 2 x overscribed.  It is the overnight repo auction that we are watching very closely and since we are close to the quarter end we may see a considerable jump in the QC repo rate.

(zerohedge)

Fed’s Term Repo 2x Oversubscribed As Banks Brace For Quarter End Funding Shortage

The NY Fed’s first term repo operation in over a decade, which has a 14 day term and thus captures the liquidity-draining quarter end period, has just concluded, and it confirmed that banks are hunkering down ahead of quarter-end, by tendering some $62BN in securities for the $30BN operation, making it more than 2x oversubscribed. 

And while we await the details of the regular, overnight repo to be printed, which is being held again today, and every day into October, here are some more details on today’s term repo:

  • The NY Fed accepted $22.7BN of Treasuries at a stop-out rate of 1.90%, with a weighted average rate was 1.961%, both well above IOER and confirming that there was indeed quite a bit more demand than supply.
  • And while the Fed did not accept agency debt, it accepted $7.27BN of mortgage-backed debt at 1.95%, with a weighted average rate of 2.007%

To be sure, the Fed’s term-repo was always expected to be heavily used, which is also why there are at least two more $30BN term repos this week, which assuming there was just $32BN in additional submissions that did not get access to the Fed’s facility, should be more than met with little need for the third and final term repo. Alternatively, some banks may be simply waiting to get closer to the quarter end before tipping their cards: after all, just like the Discount Window, the repo operation has become the modern “stigmatizing” equivalent, and if reporters or clients get a whiff that a bank is in a dire liquidity state, the consequences could be dramatic.

Furthermore, the closer we get to quarter end, the tighter liquidity will get, and as a result, the overnight general collateral repo rate rose on Tuesday after trading within the Federal Reserve’s target range late last week: according to ICAP GC repo opened at 2.10%/2%, before drifting lower to 2.05%/2.03%; meanwhile term repo rates continue to be in the mid-2% range.

Commenting on the upcoming cash crunch, Wrightson ICAP expected weekly Treasury bill settlements and the “early liquidity- chilling effects” of approaching quarter-end statement date to “start to move repo rates back up this morning”, and that’s precisely what happened.

end
Looks like the Fed has a serious liquidity problem
zerohedge)
Summary of the two repos: One term of 14 days, the other overnight:
total of the two repos  142 billion dollars

The Fed absolutely refuses to allow free markets to work, and if there was ever any doubt, there should be no longer: The Fed, a private organization with a .gov website address, has been pumping money into the repo market for several days in a row.

Today, we have a new twist on the repo operation that we’ve not seen in a decade – the “14 day term”.

Here’s a breakdown of today’s money printing repo operations, from the New York Fed:

The Totals from the two repo operations equal $142,200,000,000.

Here’s a look at the Fed’s balance sheet, which isn’t even up-to-date:

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Michael Snyder believes the dam may break on Thursday and the Democrats will stupidly try to impeach Trump

(Michael Snyder)

“The Dam Could Break On Thursday”: Here Are 12 Quotes That Signal Democrats Are Primed To Impeach Trump

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

It looks like they are really going to do it.  The Democrats are actually preparing to begin impeachment proceedings, and as you will see below, one senior House Democratic aide is warning that “the dam could break on Thursday”.

That is the day when acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire is scheduled to testify to the House Intelligence Committee, and Democrats on that committee are going to make it exceedingly clear that they want the whistleblower complaint that is at the center of this latest political firestorm.  It is being alleged that President Trump repeatedly pressured the president of Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden and his son Hunter at a time when Ukraine was desperate for military aid from the United States.  President Trump has publicly admitted that he discussed Joe Biden’s corruption with the Ukrainian president, but he insists that he never actually pressured him to do anything.  Trump is offering to release a full transcript of the call in order to prove his point, but that is not going to satisfy the Democrats.  They want the whistleblower complaint, and they want it immediately.

According to Politico, some sources on Capitol Hill are saying that the possibility of impeachment proceedings is “approaching a certainty”, but so much depends on what happens later this week.

Over the course of this week, Democratic leaders are going to do all that they can to get their hands on the whistleblower complaint, and things are likely to come to a head on Thursday when acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire testifies before the House Intelligence Committee.  The following comes from NBC News

But House Democrats have been pulling together a wide-ranging case to impeach President Donald Trump on a series of alleged past and ongoing crimes against the country — a set of charges that goes far beyond the Mueller report — and all signs point to a possible public inflection point later this week, when acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire testifies before the House Intelligence Committee.

“The dam could break on Thursday,” one senior House Democratic aide, whose boss has not endorsed impeachment, told NBC News.

Previously, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had been against impeachment, but now she appears to have changed her tune.

She is insisting that the whistleblower complaint must be turned over, and if that doesn’t happen the New York Times is warning that we should expect “a serious escalation from Congress”…

The fast-moving developments prompted Speaker Nancy Pelosi to level a warning of her own to the White House: Turn over the secret whistle-blower complaint by Thursday, or face a serious escalation from Congress.

By the end of this week, we should have a lot more clarity on what is about to happen.

But at this point, all of the signs are pointing in one direction.  The following are 12 quotes that show that the Democrats are getting ready to impeach Trump…

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff: “I have been very reluctant to go down the path of impeachment, for the reason that I think the founders contemplated, in a country that has elections every four years, that this would be an extraordinary remedy, a remedy of last resort, not first resort. But if the president is essentially withholding military aid at the same time that he is trying to browbeat a foreign leader into doing something illicit, that is, providing dirt on his opponent during a presidential campaign, then that may be the only remedy that is coequal to the evil that that conduct represents.”

Congressman Jim Himes: “Of course it’s an impeachable offense.”

Congresswoman Carolyn B. Maloney: “I first called for impeachmemt back in June. These latest revelations re: POTUS and Ukraine are absolutely outrageous – they take impeachable offenses to a whole new level, and emphasize the urgency for IMMEDIATE action.”

Congressman Al Green: “”It is time for the Congress to do its job and start the impeachment process, not an inquiry.”

Representative John Larson: “The Director of National Intelligence must comply with the law on Thursday. If not, the Trump Administration has left Congress with no alternative but for the House to begin impeachment proceedings, which I will support.”

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi: “The Inspector General determined that the matter is ‘urgent’ and therefore we face an emergency that must be addressed immediately.”

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff: “This would be, I think, the most profound violation of the presidential oath of office, certainly during this presidency, which says a lot, but perhaps during just about any presidency. There is no privilege that covers corruption. There is no privilege to engage in underhanded discussions.”

Congressman Al Green: “We are at the crossroads of accountability. Either we will hold the president accountable, or we will be held accountable.”

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: “At this point, the bigger national scandal isn’t the president’s lawbreaking behavior – it is the Democratic Party’s refusal to impeach him for it.”

Congressman Dean Phillips: “I came to Congress on a mission to clean up corruption and restore America’s trust in our government. The President’s pattern of behavior is corrupt at best, treasonous at worst, and puts our rule of law at risk.”

Representative Pramila Jayapal: “It is a deeply serious time, and I think we have a constitutional crisis and I think there is only one remedy at this point.”

Congresswoman Angie Craig: “We have a responsibility to ensure that no one is above the law — particularly our elected leaders. Yesterday, the President and his personal counsel confessed to asking the Ukrainian government to interfere with a political rival. Additionally, President Trump threatened to withhold military aid to our ally if they did not comply. It is clear that the sitting president of the United States placed his own personal interests above the national security of the United States. We must safeguard our electoral process and our very democracy from outside threats. For this reason, the current investigations into corruption must continue. And when there is an abuse of power of this magnitude, it is our responsibility to stand up for what is right. This is why I am calling to open impeachment proceedings — immediately, fairly, and impartially.”

And if impeachment proceedings do move forward, they won’t just be focused on the discussions that Trump has had with the president of Ukraine.

According to NBC News, Democrats are likely to include a whole host of “impeachable offenses” in their charges against Trump…

Democrats are also gathering evidence for possible obstruction of justice charges stemming from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation — including the eyewitness testimony the Judiciary Committee received from former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski last week. Lewandowski testified that the president twice directed him to tell then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions to un-recuse himself and shut down Mueller’s investigation of Trump.

The other buckets of potentially impeachable offenses include obstruction of Congress, a category that covers a laundry list of efforts by Trump to prevent the House from obtaining testimony and documents from various federal officials, agencies and even people who do not work for the government — like Lewandowski — over whom Trump has sought to limit disclosures by asserting executive privilege.

The latest CNN count has 137 of the 235 Democrats in the House in support of impeachment, but the floodgates have now opened and more are coming out in favor of beginning impeachment proceedings with each passing day.

And with Democrats having a solid majority in the House, there is little doubt as to what the outcome would be.

But the problem for Democrats has always been the Senate where Republicans hold a slim majority.  The Republicans currently hold 53 seats, and that always seemed to be an insurmountable obstacle to removing Trump from office.

However, things may have changed due to this latest scandal.  At this point, even Senator Mitt Romney seems deeply troubled by what he is hearing…

Senator Mitt Romney of Utah, the Republican presidential nominee in 2012, was more critical, deeming it “critical for the facts to come out” and saying, “If the president asked or pressured Ukraine’s president to investigate his political rival, either directly or through his personal attorney, it would be troubling in the extreme.”

If push came to shove, it is probably likely that Mitt Romney would vote to remove Donald Trump, and if Trump was removed from office that would open up the door for him to make a run for the White House in 2020.

In addition to Romney, there are several other “moderate” Republicans that will be critical to the outcome of any push for impeachment.  Many of them are not particularly fond of Trump, and Trump knows it.

We have reached one of the most critical moments in American history, and it was probably inevitable that the Democrats were going to come for Trump eventually.

Now we are on the verge of a constitutional crisis that could shake America to the core, and either way the end result is likely to leave tens of millions of Americans deeply angry.

Political tension has been rising to a breaking point for a long time in this nation, and this could be the spark that unleashes chaos that nobody is going to be able to control.

So let us hope for peace, and let us hope that the Democrats are not really as serious about impeachment as they appear to be at this moment.

*  *  *

Pelosi has scheduled a meeting Tuesday afternoon with the chairs of the six committees conducting investigations into Trump, according to a source familiar with the plan. House Democrats have also scheduled an unusual caucus meeting at 4 p.m. Tuesday in the Capitol. The topic remains unclear, but aides speculated it would focus on a path forward on impeachment.

end

Trump Impeachment Odds Soar On Heavy Volume 

PredictIt odds of President Trump’s impeachment by the end of his first term have soared in the last 12 hours in heavy volume.

About 14 hours ago, volume started pouring in, increasing the odds from about 35% to almost 60% in the overnight hours.

Tuesday morning, the odds have traded from 40% to 60% range – consolidating after a massive ramp.

As of Tuesday morning, nearly 150 House Democrats are supporting impeachment action after “President Trump repeatedly pressured the president of Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden and his son Hunter at a time when Ukraine was desperate for military aid from the United States,” said Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog.

The political storm surrounding President Trump’s admitted call for Ukraine’s President to investigate Joe Biden may have been what sparked impeachment odds to spike.

According to Politico, sources have been telling them that the possibility of impeachment proceedings is “approaching a certainty.”

“But House Democrats have been pulling together a wide-ranging case to impeach President Donald Trump on a series of alleged past and ongoing crimes against the country — a set of charges that goes far beyond the Mueller report — and all signs point to a possible public inflection point later this week, when acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire testifies before the House Intelligence Committee.”

“The dam could break on Thursday,” one senior House Democratic aide, whose boss has not endorsed impeachment, told NBC News.

Multiple senior House Democrats and congressional aides told The Washington Post that Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been strategizing on whether the time is right to impeach President Trump.

Pelosi has been assessing the mood of her caucus members about whether they believe the allegations that Trump urged the Ukrainian president to investigate a political opponent is enough to start impeachment proceedings.

The sudden jump in PredictIt impeachment odds of the president could have been led by Washington insiders who are in the know.

As shown below, heavy volume started pouring in yesterday evening and into the overnight.

The odds of President Trump being impeached by year-end appear to be in a new bull market.

With E-mini S&P 500 futures contracts near record highs, the market has yet to price in an impending political storm in Washington. Add the threat of impeachment to the market’s long list of troubles.

 end
It looks like Trump actually withheld funds to Ukraine one week prior to the phone call. He wants the Ukraine to rein in corruption
(zerohedge)

MSM Pivots To Trump Pausing Ukraine Military Aid Before Call

As the media stays as far away as possible from digging into the globetrotting financial adventures of Hunter Biden and his once-powerful father Joe, the Wall Street Journalhas shifted the focus to an allegation that President Trump ordered his acting chief of staff to put a hold on $391 million in military aid to Ukraine more than a week before a July 25 phone call with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky.

While the aid was approved by congress to help Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Russia, Trump – along with advisers John Bolton, Defense Secretary Mark Esper and others – had a June discussion about pausing the assistance while the administration placed it under review, according to the report.

In July, Mr. Trump directed acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney to do just that, and the decision was passed along to lower-level officials during a July 18 meeting, according to the official. The Washington Post first reported the news of the president’s directive to Mr. Mulvaney.

The official said the request reflected the president’s concerns about how the U.S. is spending aid money and whether U.S. allies are adequately contributing. The Pentagon has long been in favor of pressing forward on military aid.

Another administration official said the reasons given internally for the decision to hold up the funds were the lack of support from other countries to Ukraine and concerns about corruption in the country. Mr. Trump has repeatedly pointed to corruption in Ukraine in his calls for an investigation of Mr. Biden in recent days. –Wall Street Journal

On Monday, President Trump insinuated that he was vetting Ukraine before releasing the funds – telling reporters in New York: “It’s very important to talk about corruption,” adding “If you don’t talk about corruption, why would you give money to a country that you think is corrupt?

Later that day, Trump said he didn’t threaten the aid if his top 2020 Democratic rival Joe Biden wasn’t investigated – saying “I did not make a statement that you have to do this or I won’t give you aid,” though he did add “I think it would probably, possibly have been OK if I did.”

During the July 25 call between Trump and Volodymyr, Trump is said to have repeatedly urged the Ukrainian president to work with his lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, to investigate Biden and his son. Giuliani met with an official from the Ukrainian prosecutor general’s office in June to discuss just that.

Messrs. Trump and Giuliani have pressed for an inquiry into Mr. Biden’s anticorruption efforts in Ukraine while he was vice president and while his son Hunter Biden had business interests there. Ukraine’s prosecutor general at the time said earlier this year he had no evidence of wrongdoing by Mr. Biden or his son. On Saturday, Joe Biden said he had never discussed with his son any overseas business dealings and accused Mr. Trump of abusing his office.

The administration’s reason for putting a hold on the Ukraine funds—which for weeks this summer proved elusive to lawmakers who were eager for answers—is at the center of the expanding investigation on Capitol Hill into whether there was any connection between the review of foreign aid and efforts by the president and Mr. Giuliani to urge Ukraine to investigate Mr. Biden. The examination of Mr. Trump’s dealings with his Ukrainian counterpart is likely to escalate this week as Congress continues to probe a whistleblower complaint concerning Mr. Trump, an aspect of which involves the Ukraine call, according to a person familiar with the matter. –Wall Street Journal

Blood in the water, but not Biden’s

Democratic lawmakers have seized on the situation – with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) calling on Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to launch an investigation into who directed the suspension of aid – and said it should be incorporated into a wider-ranging probe. Speaking from the Senate floor, McConnell said he urged the administration to release the aid “throughout July, August and early September,” adding that he urged Esper to do so twice, and even mentioned it to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

And in a joint letter from the Democratic chairs of the House foreign affairs, intelligence and oversight committees, a subpoena was threatened against Pompeo if documents related to the decision weren’t turned over by the State Department.

While Trump has suggested that the aid was withhold because other countries haven’t done enough to help Ukraine financially, Vice President Mike Pence said one day after a September 2 meeting with Zelensky that “as President Trump had me make clear, we have great concerns about issues of corruption.”

“There was a lot of consternation about why this was held up and what was going on,” said Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), who sits on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, adding “I don’t remember ever hearing a clear response about what the holdup was.

Finally – one day before the Senate Appropriations Committee was scheduled to vote on a 2020 defense-spending bill attachment to force the release of funds to Ukraine, the White House ordered the hold lifted – releasing the military aid and $141 million in additional funds from the State Department.

 

end
What an absolute farce!! Trump is set to release the Ukrainian transcript which took the thunder away from the Democrats.  However Pelosi is still set to announce formal impeachment inquiry against Trump which they will lose for sure
(zerohedge)

Pelosi To Announce Formal Impeachment Inquiry Despite Trump Release Of Ukraine Transcript

Update: Democrats are scrambling as it seems President Trump’s decision to release the transcript has spoiled their narrative.

Chuck Schumer appears to have let slip what Democrats’ next play will be as he demanded that the Whistleblower’s complaint still be released (which inevitably is a partisan document), claiming that the Trump call transcript “is insufficient.”

That would appear to be an entirely defenseless position to take (as the source did not actually hear the complaint or read the transcript), but they have to keep the suspicion alive.

Additionally, Rep. Adam Schiff says the whistleblower wants to speak to his House Intel committee, and testimony may happen this week.

 

And finally, WaPo appears to have been ready for Pelosi‘s announcement with a pre-packaged story…

The Washington Post

@washingtonpost

Breaking: House Speaker Pelosi to announce formal impeachment inquiry of Trump after resisting for months https://wapo.st/2mXi7Mg

Pelosi, top Democrats privately discuss creation of select committee for impeachment – The Washin…

The talks underscore that momentum in the House among Democrats to move ahead on impeachment proceedings against Trump.

washingtonpost.com

All of which is largely moot now that Trump will release the transcript.

Nevertheless, the algos are selling again…

However, we can’t help but wonder if the Democrats might just walk into one of the biggest political traps of all time?

*  *  *

As we detailed earlier, stocks are bouncing back hard and impeachment odds tumbling after President Trump announced he has “authorized the release tomorrow of the complete, fully declassified and unredacted transcript…” somewhat stealing the jam out of Nancy Pelosi’s Democratic Party plans later this evening…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I am currently at the United Nations representing our Country, but have authorized the release tomorrow of the complete, fully declassified and unredacted transcript of my phone conversation with President Zelensky of Ukraine….

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….You will see it was a very friendly and totally appropriate call. No pressure and, unlike Joe Biden and his son, NO quid pro quo! This is nothing more than a continuation of the Greatest and most Destructive Witch Hunt of all time!

Why would Trump release such a transcript if it had anything incriminating?

Stocks agreed and surged back…

And impeachment odds are tumbling down from 66% to 42%…

We suspect Biden’s election odds will also start to drop.

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

The King Report September 24, 2019 Issue 6098                                                                                Independent View of the News

On Sunday night, USA time, traders poured into ESZs on a report that China’s cancellation of a trip to US farms was NOT related to the US-China trade talks.

ESZs peaked (3008.25) at 18: 28 ET.  By 4:51 ET, ESZ had tumbled to 2982 due to disappointing EZ economic data and ugly Germany manufacturing data.

Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for September 45.6 (83-month low), prior 47, 47.3 3 expected; Services 52, prior 53.5, 53.5 expected; Composite 50.4, (75-month low) 51.9 prior, 52 expected

Markit Germany Manufacturing PMI for September 41.4, 43.5 prior, 44 expected; Service 52.5, 54.8 prior, 54.3 expected; Composite 49.1, 51.7 prior, 51.5 expected

Markit September US Mfg. PMI 51, 50.3 prior, 50.4 expected; Services 50.9, 50.7 prior, 51.4 expected

U.S. IHS Markit Services Employment Gauge Dips Into Contraction

Fell to 49.1 in September, the lowest since December 2009, from 50.4 the prior month…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-23/u-s-ihs-markit-services-employment-gauge-dips-into-contraction

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) jumped +0.10 in August from -0.41 in July due to an unexpected increase in manufacturing.  -0.03 was expected.  Fifty-two components improved from July to August, while 30 indicators deteriorated and three were unchanged. The index’s 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) increased to –0.06 in August from –0.14 in July.

https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/cfnai/index

ESZs rallied modestly after the NY Fed reported that it had accepted $65.75B of securities for its $75B repo operation.  The smaller offerings for repos suggest that funding pressure is abating.  Repo details at:

https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/temp

The morning rally in the US was abetted by ole Draghi.

Draghi Says ECB Should Examine New Ideas like MMT

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the Governing Council should be open to ideas such as Modern Monetary Theory, while noting they’re closer to fiscal policy and should be directed by governments… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-23/draghi-says-ecb-should-examine-new-ideas-like-mmt

US traders eagerly bought dips on Monday morning because uber-dove Bullard was scheduled to speak.

In the early afternoon, Bullard did his shtick.  The most dovish Fed operative said the Fed may need more rate cuts to offset risks and the inverted yield curve is a sign that Fed fund rates should be lower.  J-Bull was speaking to the markets; but he was also wooing Trump.

Fed Dove Bullard Says May Need More Rate Cuts to Offset Risks

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-23/fed-dove-bullard-says-may-need-more-rate-cuts-to-offset-risks

Stocks went inert after the modest Bullard rally until the last-hour manipulation was abetted by this:

CNBC: American Express shares jump to session high after company announces 120M share buyback and 10% dividend hike

Monday’s market was a trite rerun: ESZs rallied on Sunday night due to traders; ugly economic news generates a sizable ESZ decline; traders buy the opening NYSE dip; central bankers supplied verbal intervention to boost stocks; the last-hour ESZ manipulation occurred but selling appeared at the close.

The Semiconductor index soared 1.5% on Monday despite the fact that South Korean chip exports for September to date crashed 40% y/y.

Food for thought chart of S&P 500 Index vs. its Trailing 12-Month EBITDA

Chinese Trade Delegation Called Off Farm Visits at U.S. Request

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer’s office didn’t find out about the visit until it was set up and subsequently asked the Chinese delegation not to go… The Chinese were told this was because of domestic reasons… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-23/chinese-trade-delegation-called-off-farm-visits-at-u-s-request

 

China’s pork imports surged 76 per cent in August amid African swine fever outbreak

https://www.yuantalks.com/chinas-pork-imports-surged-76-per-cent-in-august-amid-african-swine-fever-outbreak/

 

Apple will manufacture its new Mac Pro in Texas

It claims tariff exemptions made this move possible.

https://www.engadget.com/2019/09/23/apple-to-make-new-mac-pro-in-texas/

 

Acceptance of negative interest rates ‘vaguely troubling’: BIS – The room for monetary policy maneuver has narrowed further. Should a downturn materialize, monetary policy will need a helping hand, not least from a wise use of fiscal policy in those countries where there is still room for maneuver…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bis-markets/acceptance-of-negative-interest-rates-vaguely-troubling-bis-idUSKBN1W70N0

 

Hedge Funds Expose Banks to Heightened CLO Risk, BIS Says

As providers of services such as prime brokerage to major investors in CLOs, banks may face larger losses than those implied by their direct exposures, creating heightened financial stress, the BIS said in its quarterly review. The opacity of such links may represent a source of instability similar to financial institutions’ off-balance sheet exposure to the collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) that were at the center of the financial crisis, the BIS added…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-22/hedge-funds-expose-banks-to-heightened-clo-risk-bis-says

 

Positive aspects of previous session

Conditioned trader buying & Bullard boosted stocks

 

Negative aspects of previous session

Germany is in recession; Europe might be in recession

The usual suspects continue to disregard ugly fundamentals due to central bank anesthesia

Late selling appeared

 

Ambiguous aspects of previous session

How long can bad economic news be good news for stocks?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]

First Hour Up a tad; Last Hour Down

 

Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low2999.15; 2982.23

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend for traders]: 2991.05

 

Today – Traders failed to print or close the S&P 500 Index above 3000.  What is more troubling technically is that the biggest decline of the NYSE session occurred at the close.  This means traders were the major buyers on Monday but there were not enough great fools to absorb their selling near the close.

 

Traders will try to push the S&P 500 Index above 3000.  If they are unable to do so or if no momentum buying is generated on an upside breach, a test of Monday’s low is probable.

 

Monday’s choppy action was the yin/yang of ugly European economic data versus central bank largesse.

This dynamic will continue until real investors ordain a winner.  Bulls hope another Q4 does not occur.

 

No Fed officials are scheduled to speak today, which is a hindrance for bulls.  Tomorrow, four will speak.

 

After the NYSE close, ESZs rallied 10 handles after Mnuchin said China’s Vice Premier would visit the US next week.  An hour after ESZs opened last night, they spiked another 10 handles (20 handles higher than at the NYSE close.  ESZs are +15.50 at 21:30 ET

 

The S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 2951; 100-day MA: 2921; 150-day MA: 2896; 200-day MA: 2827

The DJIA 50-day MA: 26,611; 100-day MA: 26,360; 150-day MA: 26,260; 200-day MA: 25,762

 

S&P 500 Index support: 2990, 2978-82, 2972, 2955-60, 2940-45, 2930, 2922, 2914, 2900, 2880

Resistance: 3000-05, 3017-22, 3027, 3040, 3050

 

Expected economic data: FHFA July House Prices 0.3% m/m; July CoreLogic 20-City Home Prices 0.1% m/m; Richmond Fed Mfg Index 1; Conference Board Sept Consumer Confidence 133

 

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames

Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 2502.93 triggers a sell signal

Weekly: Trender is positive;MACD is negative – a close below 2816.78 triggers a sell signal

Daily: Trender andMACD are positive -a close below 2951.31 triggers a sell signal

Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3011.48 triggers a buy signal

 

[RINO] Bill Weld suggests Trump could face execution over Ukraine phone call

“It’s treason pure and simple. And the penalty for treason under the U.S. Code is death. That’s the only penalty.”…   https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bill-weld-trump-ukraine-phone-call

 

Due to L’affaire Ukraine, the MSM, Dems and NeverTrumpers are asserting that anyone who asks a foreign official to help investigate a US citizen is guilty of treason and sedition.  Now, remember all the stories that have appeared over the past few years that allege Teams Obama & Clinton asked/demanded that Ukraine, Great Britain, Italy and Australia investigate and surveil Team Trump.

 

@jennfranconews: Pres. Trump defends himself against the whistle-blower controversy tied to Ukraine: “The one who’s got the problem is Biden… Biden did what they would like to have me do except for one problem. I didn’t do it. What Biden did is a disgrace.”

 

@RudyGiuliani: One $3million payment to Biden’s son from Ukraine to Latvia to Cyprus to US. When Prosecutor asked Cyprus for amount going to son, he was told US embassy (Obama’s) instructed them not to provide the amount. Prosecutor getting too close to son and Biden had him fired.

    Swamp media says Biden corruption disproven. Typical lie. Three Ukrainian prosecutors on tape saying case fixed and dismissed because of Biden pressure. Tapes available to the Swamp media. But there is much more proof. Witnesses, documents, millions in circuitous wire transfers.

 

Biden Says He Never Discussed Hunter Biden’s Ukraine Deal. Hunter Says He Did

The New Yorker article, titled “Will Hunter Biden Jeopardize His Father’s Campaign?” is an in depth look at Hunter Biden’s life and business dealings. It also contains a segment where Hunter apparently recalled discussing Ukrainian natural-gas producer Burisma “just once.”… As Hunter recalled, his father discussed Burisma with him just once: “Dad said, ‘I hope you know what you are doing,’ and I said, ‘I do.’ ”…   https://dailycaller.com/2019/09/21/biden-discuss-hunter-biden-ukraine-deal/

 

House Democrat who endorsed Biden says it’s time for him to ‘clear up’ questions on son’s Ukraine dealings      https://www.foxnews.com/media/joe-biden-2020-ukraine-democrats

 

@ByronYork: No one has seen Trump-Zelensky transcript. No one has seen whistleblower complaint. No one knows what was said. Yet Politico writes: ‘At this point, the facts are pretty much in the open and agreed to.’

 

Biden’s Ukraine ‘problems’ are just the appetizer to the Chinese main course.

 

@BenKTallmadge: Hunter Biden’s Bohai Harvest is among the select few that has participated in China’s State-Owned Enterprises pilot reform involving the spinning off of the non-oil business segments of Sinopec Group into a separate Sinopec Marketing Corp…

    Hunter Biden’s BHR also invests in China General Nuclear Power Group. In Nov 2015, CGN acquired Malaysia’s 1MBD energy assets. In 2016, DOJ charged CGN with stealing nuclear secrets from the US stretching back almost 2 decades.  In Aug 2019, the US @CommerceGov added CGN (Hunter Biden’s Investment) To its “entity list”, barring US companies from selling products to CGN.  Why the hell Hunter’s Investments always involved in stealing US trade/military secret? (AVIC hacked F-22, F-35 intel)https://twitter.com/BenKTallmadge/status/1176088076394717186

 

@AndrewHClark: File this in the ‘why is Biden even running for president?’ drawer.

Reporter mentions Iowa’s economy is booming.

Reporter: “Why should people want to make a change?” Biden: “Well that’s up to them to decide.”

Reporter: Well make your case?”  Biden: “I’m not going to.”…

https://twitter.com/AndrewHClark/status/1176236079193755648

 

Biden has collapsed in the betting odds for the Democratic Presidential Nominee: Warren 47; Biden 27, Sander 10.   https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3633/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-presidential-nomination

 

Average odds as of Sept. 22: Warren 38.6, Biden 26.3, Sanders 13.4

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/democratic_2020_nomination/

 

McCabe Memo Details How DoJ’s Rosenstein Proposed Wearing a Wire into Oval Office to Record President Trump –“As our conversation continued the DAG proposed that he could potentially wear a recording device into the Oval Office to collect additional evidence on the President’s true intentions. He said he thought this might be possible because he was not searched when he entered the White House. I told him that I would discuss the opportunity with my investigative team and get back to him.  We discussed the issue of appointing a Special Counsel to oversee the FBI’s Russia investigation. The DAG said he has two candidates ready, one of whom could start immediately.”…

https://www.judicialwatch.org/press-releases/judicial-watch-mccabe-memo-details-how-dojs-rosenstein-proposed-wearing-a-wire-into-oval-office-to-record-president-trump/

 

‘Psycho’ Philadelphia Eagles fan caught on camera screaming furiously turns out to be the University of Pennsylvania’s admissions dean [Don’t blame the guy, the Eagles were awful!]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7494523/Psycho-Philadelphia-Eagles-fan-Penns-admissions-dean.html

END

Well that is all for today

I will see you Wednesday night.

 

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One comment

  1. Jim Ludwig Rand Clifford · · Reply

    Harvey, there is zero chance that Trump could be impeached. Disturbing that you seem to think impeachment is even a possibility. Are you absorbing too much mainstream media? At least you do a good job with precious metals realities. I suggest you bone up on the X-22 report. Dave is such a wellspring of truth I’m surprised he hasn’t be banned from YouTube….

    Truth and reality will always trump propaganda and corruption, eventually.

    Like

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