OCT 9.COMEX DATA EXCEPT INVENTORY DATA COMPLETE/CURRENCY DATA COMPLETE//GOLD AND SILVER VALUES COMPLETE//COULD NOT GET MORNING DATA//

GOLD:$1507.90 up $8.90(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:

$17.78 up 14 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1506.00

 

silver:  $17.77

I

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 73/229

 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,497.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/08/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 10/10/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 224
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 42
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 13
661 C JP MORGAN 73
737 C ADVANTAGE 4 56
800 C MAREX SPEC 1 19
880 H CITIGROUP 1
905 C ADM 25
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 229 229
MONTH TO DATE: 10,632

 

 

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT: 229 NOTICE(S) FOR 22900 OZ (0.7122 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  10,632 NOTICES FOR 1,063,200 OZ  (33.069 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR 0CT

 

 

2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 10,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 923for 4,615,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

 

 

 

 

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  xx

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: xx

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE  SIZED 2686 CONTRACTS FROM 211,282 UP TO 213,968 WITH THE 15 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR SEPT 0,; DEC  2274 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  2274 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2274 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2274 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 11.37 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 15 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

6.310     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

 

YESTERDAY, ANOTHER MAJOR ATTEMPT BY THE BANKERS TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL AT THE SILVER COMEX AS ANOTHER RAID WAS INITIATED.  OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR//BANKERS AGAIN USED HUGE COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN THEIR SUCCESSFUL ENDEAVOUR TO WHACK SILVER’S PRICE (58 CENTS). HOWEVER TO THEIR SHOCKING SURPRISE, AGAIN AND AGAIN NOBODY LEAVES THE SILVER COMEX ARENA AS THE TOTAL OF OUR TWO EXCHANGES ROSE BY  4960 CONTRACTS MAKING THEIR RAID TOTALLY USELESS TO THEM AS THEIR PRIMARY AIM IS TO FLEECE LONGS.  THE MAJORITY EITHER MORPHED INTO LONDON FORWARDS OR  THEY ARE STANDING FOR DELIVERY HERE AS THEY  SEEK OUT PHYSICAL METAL ON BOTH SIDES OF THE POND

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF OCT:

8190 CONTRACTS (FOR 7 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 8190 CONTRACTS) OR 40.96 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1170 CONTRACTS OR 5.850 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  40.96 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 5.85% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1713.06   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2686, WITH THE 15 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2686 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC  SIZED: 4960 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 2274 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 2686  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 15 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.71 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.069 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 154% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 7 NOTICE(S) FOR 35,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 6.310 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2408 CONTRACTS, TO 616,957 ACCOMPANYING THE $0.35 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// /

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 6917 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  6917 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 616,957,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9,325 CONTRACTS: 2408 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 6917 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 9325 CONTRACTS OR 932,500 OZ OR 29.00 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A LOSS OF $0.35 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT SLIGHT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN GOLD TONNAGE OF 29.00  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON AS ANOTHER RAID WAS INITIATED. THE BANKERS WERE VERY SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE.  THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA. 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT : 25,316 CONTRACTS OR 2,531,600 oz OR 78.74 TONNES (7 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 3616 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN   7 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 78.74 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 78.74/3550 x 100% TONNES =2.22% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4742.45 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2408 DESPITE THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($0.35)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6917 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6917 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 9325 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6917 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2408 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 29.00 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE A LOSS OF 35 CENTS YESTERDAY AT THE COMEX

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  229 notice(s) filed upon for 22900 oz of gold at the comex.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $8.90 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY

INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.76  TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY:

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.496 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2686 CONTRACTS from 211,282 UP TO 213,968 AND FURTHER FROM  A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR OCT. 0; FOR DEC  2274   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2274 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2686  CONTRACTS TO THE 2274 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 4960 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 24.80 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 6.310 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 15 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2274 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 30.52 POINTS OR 1.04%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 131.51 POINTS OR 0.46%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 422.94 POINTS OR 1.97%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .42%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8807 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8807 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8834 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 2408 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 616,957 ACCOMPANYING THE LOSS OF $0.35 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6917 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR SEPT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 6917   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6917 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 9325 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6917 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 2408 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS SUCCEEDED IN CONTAINING GOLD’S PRICE BY A  LOSS OF $0.35. HOWEVER, JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY UNSUSPECTING LONGS. 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  9325 CONTRACTS OR 932,500OZ OR 29.00 TONNES.

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER.  This month is generally the poorest delivery month of the year as must players prefer to go straight to the big active delivery month of December. Strangely October will turn out to be a huge delivery month. Today we have 437 contracts still standing for a gain of 23 contracts. Yesterday we had 13 notices served upon so we despite the raid, we have a gain of 36 contracts or an additional 3600 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. We again have queue jumping by the bankers in their attempt to find physical metal.

 

The next active delivery month after October is the non active contract month of November. Here we saw a GAIN of 38 contracts and thus the OI INCREASED to 1036  The very big December contract month saw its oi RISE by 2617 contracts UP to 482,241.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 229 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  22900 OZ. (0.7122TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2686 CONTRACTS FROM 211,8282 DOWN TO 213,968 (AND CLOSER TO A NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 15 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER.  HERE WE HAVE 489 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF  5 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 7 CONTACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS OR 10,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH.  THE ALSO REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

AFTER OCTOBER WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND HERE  WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 8 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 489. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 2264 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 161,714.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 2 notice(s) filed for 10,000, OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 290,638  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  387,213  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

OCT 9/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz XXX oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
229 notice(s)
 22900 OZ
(0.7122 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
208 contracts
(20800 oz)
.6469 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
10,632 notices
1,063,200 OZ
33.069 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had XX deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  noz

 

ii) Into EVERYBODY ELSE 0

 

 

 

we had XX gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nilXX oz

FOR THE OCT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 229 contract(s) of which 73 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,632) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT. (437 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (229 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,084,000 OZ OR 33.71 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of OCT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (10632 x 100 oz)  + (437)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (13 x 100 oz )which equals 1,074100oz standing OR 33.71 TONNES in this  active delivery month of OCT.

We gained a strong 36 contracts OR 3600 ADDITIONAL OZ which queue jumped as our bankers //official sector were searching for badly needed physical

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 3 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

AND NOW……………………………………………………………………………     OCT. 33.71 TONNES

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT IN SEPT 2 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.6 TONNES.

IF WE ADD THE THREE DELIVERY MONTHS: 66.31

TONNES- 2.60 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 63.71 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1,147,640.808 oz or  35.696 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,188,292.958 oz 254.69 tonnes

IN THE LAST 35 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
OCT 9//2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 301,895.740 oz
CNT
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,134,863.019 oz
CNT
Delaware
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
2
CONTRACT(S)
(10,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
341 contracts
 1,705,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  923 contracts

4,615,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  XX deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nXX oz

ii)into XX

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  XXX  oz

 

we had XX withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total XXX  oz

 

we had XX adjustment :

i) Out of XX

 

total dealer silver:  XX million

total dealer + customer silver:  XX million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the OCT 2019. contract month is represented by 2 contract(s) FOR 10,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 923 x 5,000 oz = 4,615,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (343) and the number of notices served upon today 2 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 923 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (343)- number of notices served upon today (2x 5000 oz equals 6,320,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month. 

WE  gained 2 contracts or an additional 10,000 oz of silver will stand at the comex as they guys refused to morph into london based forwards. For the past several weeks we have been witnessing queue jumping in both gold and silver.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 2 notice(s) filed for 10,000 OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  69,635 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 94,210 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 92,210 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 471 million  OZ 67.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.50% ((SEPT 30/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.06% to NAV (SEPT 30/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.50%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.66 TRADING 14.17///DISCOUNT 3.34

 

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT.9//WITH GOLD UP $8

OCT 8\WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

0CT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN 7 DOLLARS//A BIG CHANGE //A DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES//

INVENTORY RISES TO 923.76 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $15.25 A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 920.83 TONNES

SEPT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $32.50: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.88 TONNES

SEPT 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 26//WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90 A HUGE  PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  16.42 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

 

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.65 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN OUT OF THIS WORLD DEPOSIT OF 14.37 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 10.65 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 ON THE DAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.06 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 16/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A BIG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 12//WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A HUGE 7.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.15 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

OCT 9/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 923.76 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 675 TRADING DAYS: 25.44 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 575- TRADING DAYS: A NET 141.25 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 166,000 OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 1.2019 //WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.87 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.656 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25.//WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.338 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23.2019/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.899 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION PAPER OZ OF SILVER///INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.425 MILLION PAPER OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.179 MILLION OZ../

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 60 CENTS TODAY: A RATHER TIMID CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 842,000 PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 386.604 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

OCT 9/2019:

 

 

Inventory 383.496 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.12/ and libor 6 month duration 1.96

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .16

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.92%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.87

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.05

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

iii) Other physical stories:

C

 

 end
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * * PLEASE IGNORE MORNING DATA//COULD NOT GET

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8807/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8834   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 30.52 POINTS OR 1.04%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 131.51 POINTS OR 0.46%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 422.94 POINTS OR 1.97%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.24/Euro FALLS TO 1.1219

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.13/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.21 and Brent: 64.13

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen PU CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.32%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.53% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.39%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.85: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.09

3k Gold at $1421.50 silver at: 16.13   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 10/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.99

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.85 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9875 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1077 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.32%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.05% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.57%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6988..

Barrage Of “Deal Optimism” And Fake News Roils Market As Futures Surge

Hardly a trader had walked into their New York office on Wednesday morning and the session was already enough to exhaust an algo.

In a stark reversal of the Tuesday overnight session where early optimism gradually faded and was replaced by sheer fear and loathing of this week’s trade deal announcement (with Beijing going so far to even threaten to cut off NBA access after a hilarious virtue signalling fiasco), this morning we have moved from trade deal pessimism to growing optimism, when first, shortly after 5am ET, Bloomberg reported that China is open to a “partial trade deal” despite the tech blacklist imposed by the US on Monday. The report added that China would accept a limited deal as long as no more tariffs are imposed by US President Trump, including the two rounds of higher duties set to come into effect later this month and in December and noted that China would offer non-core concessions such as continued purchases of agri products, but would not give in on major sticking points.

This report sent the Emini future up by almost 20 points, when just minutes later, at 545am the FT reported that China had offered to buy an extra $10bln of US goods per year, from $20BN to $30BN, to ease the trade war. This burst of “trade deal optimism” spiked the Emini higher by another 20 points, with S&P futures rising as high as 2,934 before paring all gains after it emerged that the FT itself admitted its report was mostly fake news, when it revised its initial report to say that the Chinese delegation led by Liu He was only offering to boost annual purchases of soy beans to 30 million tonnes from 20 million currently, which would be equivalent to a laughable $3.25BN in additional orders at current rates.

This is “summarized” in the chart below.

Subsequent to this pandemonium of flashing red headlines and FTake news, China’s Global Times editor added to the optimism when he refuted reports that said the Chinese delegation would cut short its stay in Washington noting the Chinese delegation plans to leave Fri night, which means they will complete the scheduled consultation agenda.

This followed a Tuesday report from the SCMP according to which the Chinese delegation was to cut short its trip by one day, framing the in a negative, “doomed from the beginning” light. And while GT’s Hu Xijin tried to play down the importance of the delegations leaving date, saying it has no bearing on the negotiation schedule…

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

Some reports said Chinese delegation will cut short its stay in Washington. But based on what I know, the delegation plans to leave Fri night, which means they will complete the scheduled consultation agenda. From a working perspective, this is no different from leaving on Sat.

… at this point even the algos had had enough hollow optimism, and refused to move, with the S&P futures last seen trading just below 2,920 which is still nearly 30 points above where the future closed on Tuesday, as it dumped to session lows despite the Fed’s announcement of QE4.

The furious surge in the US as “trade talk optimism”TM returned quickly spread across the world, with European stocks a sea of green as tech companies and carmakers led a broad-based advance. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks dropped, led by technology firms, impacted by the poor US close on Tuesday as today’s trade headlines had yet to hit. Most markets in Asia closed down, with Taiwan and Philippines leading declines while Shanghai and Mumbai advanced. South Korea’s market was closed for Hangul Day. Japan’s Topix index retreated 0.3%, as electronic and machinery makers weighed on the gauge. Renesas Electronics slumped as much as 6.2% after Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley said the company’s acquisitions are hurting its finances and growth. The Shanghai Composite Index closed 0.4% higher, supported by large financial firms. China-U.S. relations showed signs of deterioration ahead of a new round of trade negotiations. India’s Sensex advanced 1.2%, with lenders including ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank among the biggest boosts

Of course, for all the posturing and rumors, the high-level U.S.-China trade talks are only set to resume in Washington tomorrow even as relations have deteriorated sharply between the two countries, despite what algos “think.” While a broad agreement seems unlikely, China signaled it’s open to a limited deal, provided no more tariffs are imposed by President Donald Trump, according to an official. In return, Beijing would offer non-core concessions like purchases of agricultural products without giving in on major sticking points. Whether Trump – who has previously said he would not accept a partial deal – would agree to this proposal, remains to be seen.

Trade talk resume just as the Trump administration on Tuesday slapped visa bans on some Chinese officials and placed a number of Chinese technology firms on a blacklist. Bloomberg also reported the White House is moving ahead with discussions about restricting U.S. government pension investments in China.

The latest U.S.-China flare-up overshadowed comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who said the central bank will resume purchases of Treasury securities, i.e. launch QE4 just don’t call it QE4to avoid a repeat of recent turmoil in money markets, while hinting at the possibility of another rate cut. Minutes of the Fed’s last rates meeting will be released tonight, providing further insight into policy makers’ thinking ahead of their next meeting at the end of the month.

“Judging from this week’s U.S. onslaught on Chinese firms, trade negotiations are going to prove less constructive than thought, intensifying risks to global growth,” said Nema Ramkhelawan-Bhana, an economist at FirstRand Bank in Johannesburg, in note to clients. “In the absence of fiscal expansion, countries will defer to central banks to cushion the blow by providing further policy accommodation.”

In geopolitical news, US and Kurdish officials expect Turkey to launch an attack on Northeast Syria within the next 24 hours, according to Foreign Policy’s Pentagon Correspondent. Separate reports noted that US officials have informed Syrian Kurds that Turkey is likely to attack on air and ground in the next 24 hours, Turkish attack appears coordinated with Russians, according to Washington Post’s Ignatius citing sources. Turkish President Erdogan’s aid said the Turkish military together with the Free Syrian army will cross the Turkish-Syrian border shortly. US Senator Lindsey Graham warned the Turkish government that it did not receive the green light to enter Northern Syria, and added that “there is massive bipartisan opposition in Congress, which you should see as a red line you should not cross.” Subsequently, were reports that Turkish troops had crossed the Syrian borded although a Official clarifies that the incursion was yet to begin, though they are at the border

Elsewhere, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index snapped a two-day advance as algos were once again optimistic on U.S.-China trade talks even amid signs of deteriorating relations between the two sides. The pound climbed toward $1.23 on a Times report that the European Union is ready to make a major concession over the Irish backstop, before paring the entire advance as the report was sternly denied by virtually everyone.

The yuan climbed, helped by trade optimism and a stronger-than-expected fixing of the daily reference rate.

In rates, Treasuries and euro-area bonds dropped as European equities gained.

West Texas crude rose above $53 a barrel. Turkey’s lira fluctuated as the country’s military began crossing the border into Syria as it had previously warned.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.9% to 2,919.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 379.80
  • MXAP down 0.6% to 155.26
  • MXAPJ down 0.6% to 495.90
  • Nikkei down 0.6% to 21,456.38
  • Topix down 0.3% to 1,581.70
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 25,682.81
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 2,924.86
  • Sensex up 1.1% to 37,953.66
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 6,546.73
  • Kospi up 1.2% to 2,046.25
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to -0.576%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.0984
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to 0.504%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.4 bps to 0.136%
  • Brent futures up 0.5% to $58.53/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,502.88
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 99.03

Top Overnight News

  • China is still open to agreeing a partial trade dealwith the U.S., an official with direct knowledge of the talks said, signaling that Beijing is focused on limiting the damage to the world’s second-largest economy.
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank will resume purchases of Treasury securities in an effort to avoid a repeat of recent turmoil in money markets, while leaving his options open on interest rates weeks ahead of policy makers’ next meeting.
  • The Brexit talks have turned into an angry stalemate, as U.K. and EU leaders focused on blaming each other for refusing to budge. Any hope of a deal now rests with a meeting between Johnson and his Irish counterpart, Leo Varadkar, planned for Thursday or Friday.
  • The Trump administration is slapping visa bans on Chinese officials linked to the mass detention of Muslims, the latest in an escalating series of U.S. steps to pressure Beijing over what Secretary of State Michael Pompeo has called “the stain of the century.”
  • Turkish troops have begun crossing into northeastern Syria to force back Kurdish militants controlling the border area, a Turkish official told Bloomberg, days after Donald Trump said the U.S. wouldn’t stand in the way.

Asian stocks tracked losses on Wall Street where the DJIA decline over 300 points, but are ultimately mixed, as optimism surrounding US-China trade talks diminished further after the US imposed Visa bans on Chinese individuals related to the abuse of China’s Uighur community, which the Chinese Embassy said undermines China’s interests. Stocks in Asia then showed a mild recovery amid an indecisive risk tone ahead of this week’s key risk events. ASX 200 (-0.7%) was pressured by losses in large-cap miners, whilst Nikkei 225 (-0.6%) was dragged lower by chipmakers following downside in US peers, although the index pared some losses amid favourable JPY action. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.8%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.4%) were choppy with gains in the Hong Kong capped by Real Estate stocks as the ongoing anti-government protests continue to impact the domestic housing market, whilst Mainland China was cushioned by industrial and machinery names on the back of favourable base metal prices. As a reminder, South Korean markets are closed due to a public holiday.

Top Asian News

  • Trouble Is Brewing in China Shadow Banking’s Darkest Corner
  • Elliott Questions Japan Firm Unizo’s Actions in Bidding War
  • Bank Permata Shares Jump After DBS Said to Consider Bid
  • China May Restrict U.S. Visas With ’Anti-China’ Links: Reuters

Major European Bourses (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%) are higher on reports that China is open to a partial trade deal despite the tech blacklist, marking a turn-around from a broadly negative AsiaPac session. This report comes against the grain of a number of recent negative US/China trade headlines and developments ahead of this week’s talks, although the report does appear in fitting with recent commentary, in that it also suggested that China is not willing to make concession on issues such as IP, Industrial subsidies or policies. The positive reaction appeared to be more related to the fact that, despite recent escalations by the US (the US had been refraining from attacking China over its treatment of the Uyghars until yesterday), China is still be willing to do a “mini deal”. Unsurprisingly, in light of the recent negative developments, market expectations had been revising themselves lower heading into the talks, with participants looking for a something closer to a tentative truce at best. In that vein, a “mini deal” would exceed expectations, however, US President Trump has repeatedly insisted that the US wants a full deal. Sectors reflect a risk on configuration; the risk sensitive Tech (+0.7%) and Industrials (+0.7%), while the more defensive Utilities (-0.3%), Consumer Staples (+0.2%) and Health Care (+0.2%) lag. In terms of individual movers; Airbus (-0.6%) shares fell after the Co. issued a warning to staff regarding challenges in hitting their cashflow target in 2019, said sources. UK gambling names were supported after GVC (+2.9%) announced an increase to its FY EBITDA guidance and a successful refinancing of debt. Repsol (+0.4%) shares opened lower, but managed to pare the worst of the losses as the market moved higher, after the co. announced Q3 production at 712kBPD (vs. Prev. 694kBPD). EDF (-1.7%) fell on the news of an increased the cost estimate for the energy producer’s delayed Flamanville nuclear plant, and continued to see downside as the utilities sector came under pressure as risk sentiment improved.

Top European News

  • Italy Draws $10 Billion of Orders for Rare Sale of Dollar Bonds
  • Telecom Italia CEO Accelerates Overhaul With Data Center Spinoff
  • EDF Cost Blowout at French Plant Piles Pressure on Nuclear Giant

In FX, NZD/CNH/AUD/EUR/GBP/CAD – All firmer vs the Greenback amidst a broad revival in risk appetite spurred mainly by reports that China is still willing to negotiate a partial trade accord with the US even though Washington has blacklisted Chinese tech companies. Meanwhile, sentiment was also boosted on the Brexit front with the EU said to be preparing a significant Irish backstop offer to the UK, but the euphoria relatively short-lived given that the DUP reiterated its opposition to a double majority NI veto compromise regardless of any set timeframe and subsequent EU sources denied any major concession in the offing. The Antipodean Dollars are outperforming close to 0.6750 and above 0.6300 respectively, while the offshore Yuan has bounced from recent lows through 7.1300, Euro consolidates between 1.0950-90 and Loonie pares more losses around the 1.3300 handle. However, the Pound has been pulled from pillar to post due to the initial Stormont climbdown by Brussels boost and ensuing fall from grace on the rejection before complete retraction or blank denial. Indeed, Cable has reversed from just shy of 1.2300 back towards circa 1.2200 lows, albeit still holding above fib support at 1.2197 and Tuesday’s 1.2195 base, as Eur/Gbp remains capped ahead of 0.9000.

  • JPY/CHF – Understandably, the safe-haven Yen and Franc are underperforming in wake of latest US-Sino trade news, embellished by Beijing sweetening the mood ahead of talks with a pledge to buy an additional Usd10 bn agri goods per annum, with Usd/Jpy rebounding to 107.40 from a few pips under 107.00 and Usd/Chf easing back from the psychological 0.9900 level.
  • NOK/SEK – Notwithstanding the overall upturn in sentiment and firmer crude prices, Scandi Crowns continue to depreciate on a combination of bearish chart and fundamental impulses, with Eur/Nok climbing further above 10.0000 and Eur/Sek crossing fresh decade highs over 10.9200 following NIER Swedish GDP and CPIF forecast downgrades.
  • EM – Usd/Try also remains on an upward trajectory as the Lira braces for imminent Turkish military incursions across the border with Syria and investor/international reverberations. The pair is currently hovering near the upper end of 5.8455-8180 parameters after false reports implying that Turkish forces have already started operations, but troops are seemingly poised to strike.

In commodities, crude markets are trading with gains of approx. USD 0.50/bbl, as sentiment receives a boost from the updates to the US-China situation that are outlined above. Elsewhere, the geopolitical situation continues to escalate with Turkey reportedly beginning their incursion into Northern Syria, although officials subsequently denied the reports. Either way, expectations are for the assault to commence soon, and the attack appears to be coordinated with the Russians. Meanwhile, separate reports suggested that Iran was carrying out unannounced military exercises near the Turkish border… Looking ahead, further impetus is likely to come in the form of EIA Weekly Crude Inventory data, Fed’s Powell & Minutes and further US/China trade updates; particularly a response from the US side. As a reminder, API inventory data showed a larger than expected build of 4.1mln barrels (exp. +1.4mln), however, Gasoline posted a much larger than expected draw at -5.9mln barrels (exp. -0.3mln). Expectations are for a 3.1mln barrel headline build in the EIA’s Weekly Crude Inventory data, with gasoline seen drawing 0.228mln barrels. In terms of metals, spot gold has slipped to the bottom of the day’s range though is yet to breach the USD 1500/oz mark to the downside while copper is buoyed just below the USD 2.60/lb mark on the improving trade outlook.

US Event Calendar

  • Oct. 9-Oct. 11: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $93.0b, prior $119.1b
  • 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7,250, prior 7,217
  • 10am: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior 0.3%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
  • 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Thanks to the numerous responses I had yesterday to my golfing woes. It seems most people think it’s all in the mind though. However my response would be that if this was the case all it would take to be top of the world rankings would be a meditation course. It’s not that simple. However there were lots of inspirational tales from readers about their sporting perseverances though, including a weight lifter changing his technique and lifting 35% more after 18 months, tennis players remodelling their backhand, runners going through injuries to beat their PBs and lots of golfers who have gone through a complete swing change like me. When I win the club champs next year I’ll thank you all for the inspiration.

Markets could do with a bit of a swing change at the moment with yesterday feeling like a day where many of the recent risks that have been building up to challenge the world order of the last four decades decided to rear their head together. US/China trade newsflow seemed to take a backward step ahead of important talks this week and UK/EU Brexit talks not only unravelled but the relationship between the two sides seems to be in danger of breaking down completely. That will be a big problem for the prospect of any future deal if the current government uses this conflict as a tool to win a majority in the next election. So the obvious cracks that have been appearing over more than four decades of globalisation are in danger of widening significantly in the days and weeks ahead.

In terms of markets, before we look at the details, the S&P 500 ended the session down -1.56%. Trade-sensitive stocks were hit hardest, with the NASDAQ down -1.67% while the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell -3.12% (its worst day since August and down to a one-month low). The S&P 500 had attempted to rally in the afternoon, and indeed had gained +0.96% off its lows to trade down ‘only’ -0.46%, but additional negative trade headlines interrupted the rebound and sent risk sentiment even lower (more below). Sovereign bonds rallied with 10yr Treasury yields -2.4bps to 1.536%. The yield curve had flattened early in the day, consistent with the risk off, but ultimately steepened +1.6bps after Fed Chair Powell sparked a front-end rally with his speech (more below).

European bonds also advanced, with bunds (-2.0bps), OATs (-2.5bps) and BTPs (-0.8bps) all benefiting from risk-off sentiment. What was particularly notable was how market dislocations led investors to raise the probability of further easing by central banks, with yesterday seeing the implied probability of a further 25bp cut at the Fed meeting later this month rise from 64 to 74%. Other havens also benefited, with both gold and silver ending the session up +0.679% and +1.66% respectively, but bank stocks were hit hard, with the S&P 500 banks index down -2.36% and the STOXX Banks down -1.30%.

There were a number of catalysts to point to behind the declines. After the US’s blacklist of Chinese technology companies the previous evening, we were told from a foreign ministry spokesman in China to “stay tuned” for possible retaliation, and that “China will continue to take firm and forceful measures to resolutely safeguard national sovereignty, security and development interests.” Adding to the negative newsflow, Bloomberg also reported that the US were looking at limiting investments made by US government pension funds in China. This isn’t actually the first time we’ve heard about this, with another Bloomberg report from late-September saying that officials in the Trump administration had discussed how they could limit portfolio flows from the US to China, with one of the options being limiting exposure to China through government pension funds. As if this wasn’t enough, we also had an article in the South China Morning Post, which had a source saying that the Chinese delegation may leave Washington on the 11th, rather than the initial plan to leave on the 12th. They also said “There’s not much optimism.” Finally, late in the trading session the US announced new visa bans on Chinese officials who are involved with the apparent mass detention of Uighurs in Xinjiang province, another escalation as the trade talks kick off. Remember, all this comes ahead of a planned increase in US tariffs on $250bn worth of Chinese goods from 25% to 30%, due to take place on October 15th.

In the FX markets, sterling was the big loser yesterday, down -0.63% against the dollar as any lingering hopes of a Brexit deal any time soon faded dramatically yesterday leading to sterling falling to its lowest levels again the euro and dollar for a month. The cause was a phone call between Prime Minister Johnson and Chancellor Merkel, which resulted in an incredibly negative briefing from Downing Street afterwards. The BBC’s political editor Laura Kuenssberg reported that a Number 10 source said “talks in Brussels are close to breaking down”. A spokesman for the German Chancellor didn’t comment on the call. Relations between the UK and the EU deteriorated as the day went on it seemed, with European Council President Donald Tusk tweeting to Prime Minister Johnson that “what’s at stake is not winning some stupid blame game.” Importantly, the Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney said in response to Tusk’s tweet “Hard to disagree – reflects the frustration across EU and the enormity of what’s at stake for us all.” The BBC’s Europe editor, Katya Adler, tweeted yesterday afternoon that there was speculation in the EU that Prime Minister Johnson might not even turn up to the EU Council summit next week if there wasn’t the prospect of a deal. Just as we were all throwing in the towel in terms of the prospect of a deal, news came in as London went home that Mr Johnson and Irish PM Varadkar hope to meet in person later this week after a “constructive” call. However it’s not clear what progress can be made given the above. Indeed in an interview with broadcaster RTE, Varadkar said it’s hard to see a deal to break the impasse over Brexit being clinched next week and added that problems remain with PM Johnson’s proposals to take Northern Ireland out of the EU’s custom union, and give the region’s power-sharing assembly a veto over rule alignment with the bloc.

So things are shaping up to be pretty eventful ahead of first next week’s summit, then the October 19th Benn Act deadline for the PM to ask for an extension, and possibly even to the current Article 50 deadline at the end of the month. After that along comes likely elections with hard Brexit versus Jeremy Corbyn as a likely choice for the electorate assuming a deal hasn’t been struck. Staying with the U.K., the productivity statistics showed output per hour fell by -0.5% yoy in Q2, which was the fastest yoy decline since Q2 2014 – so not a great backdrop.

Overnight in Asia, markets are largely trading lower following Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (-0.66%), Hang Seng (-0.68%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.14%) all down. South Korea’s markets are closed for a holiday. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.30% and WTI oil prices are down c. -0.30% this morning.

In other news, Kristalina Georgieva, in her first major address as the head of the IMF, said that the fund will cut its growth forecast for both 2019 and 2020 in its next World Economic Outlook due October 15 while adding that the fund estimates that 90% of the world is seeing slower growth in a synchronised slowdown as opposed to two years ago when growth was accelerating across three-quarters of the globe in a synchronised upswing. She also said that “if the global economy slows more sharply than expected, a coordinated fiscal response may be needed,” while adding that, “We are not there” but it’s better to be too early with it than late. On monetary policy, she said central banks should keep interest rates low where appropriate but warned that very low or even negative interest rates can come with “negative side effects and unintended consequences” that can lead to financial vulnerabilities while adding, “Monetary and financial policies cannot do the job alone. Fiscal policy must play a central role.” So the pressure builds on Governments.

Back to yesterday and another market-moving event was Fed Chair Powell’s speech. He has become quite effective at saying as little as possible in his public remarks over recent months, but yesterday he clearly came out with a clear message to communicate. He signaled very strongly that the Fed will announce new plans to grow its balance sheet by purchasing treasury bills. He noted that repo markets had experienced “unexpectedly intense volatility” in September and said that “it is clear that without a sufficient quantity of reserves in the banking system, even routine funding pressures can lead to outsized movements in money market interest rates.” He went on to specifically say that “my colleagues and I will soon announce measures to add to the supply of reserves over time.” T-bills rallied, causing swap spreads to widen, as markets moved to price in the expectation for greater and more imminent fed purchases at the front-end of the yield curve.

Powell took great pains to emphasize that the new balance sheet expansion is just a technical adjustment and is not a new QE program nor a signal about the monetary policy stance. He did touch briefly on the macro outlook, but just reiterated his usual language about acting “as appropriate to support continued growth.” It’s worth noting that he did cite recent Fed staff research on the labour market, which suggests that job growth has not been as strong as would be indicated by the BLS jobs report. Our US economists had flagged that research and we included it in the EMR two weeks ago. Chicago Fed President Evans also spoke yesterday, saying that he “wouldn’t mind another cut” for a bit more “insurance.” He had been leaning hawkish lately so that’s certainly a dovish shift.

Turning to other data releases, expectations for Fed easing this month was supported by the US PPI reading, which fell by more than expected in August to -0.3% mom (vs. +0.1% expected), while core PPI also fell -0.3% (vs. +0.2% expected). German industrial production was more positive however, up +0.3% mom in August (vs. unch expected), while July’s contraction was revised down from -0.6% to -0.4%. It comes after data the previous day showed yet more falls in factory orders. Within the figures, manufacturing saw a +0.7% increase, although energy production fell -1.7%. Finally in Italy, retail sales unexpectedly fell -0.6% mom (vs. +0.1% growth expected).

Before we take a look at the day ahead, the White House said overnight that President Donald Trump and his administration won’t participate in the House impeachment inquiry in a fairly forthright letter to Speaker Nancy Pelosi, calling the proceedings unconstitutional and invalid. A senior administration official said yesterday that the White House would halt all participation in the inquiry, and wouldn’t provide documents, even those sought by subpoena, or make officials available to give testimony. So we have this bubbling in the background too.

Looking at the day ahead, a key highlight will be the minutes from the FOMC’s September meeting coming out later. It’s possible that the minutes will give some hints about the details under consideration for the Fed’s apparent plan to grow the balance sheet with purchases of bills, as Chair Powell signaled yesterday. Later today, we’ll hear from Powell again at a Fed Listens event, along with Kansas City Fed President George. It’s another light day for data, but releases include the Bank of France’s industry sentiment indicator for September, weekly MBA mortgage applications from the US, as well as August JOLTS job openings and final wholesale inventories.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 30.52 POINTS OR 1.04%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 131.51 POINTS OR 0.46%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 422.94 POINTS OR 1.97%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .42%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8807 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8807 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8834 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Johnson Faces Mass Defection Of Tory MPs Amid Battle Over ‘No Deal’ Brexit

The resignations of Rory Stewart, Johnson’s one-time rival for the leadership, and Amber Rudd, the former Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, have reportedly inspired dozens of other Tories to threaten to resign over their objections to a ‘no deal’ Brexit. According to the Times of London, Johnson is facing “a new cabinet rebellion” over the possibility of a “no-deal” Brexit.

A group of five ministers, Nicky Morgan, Julian Smith, Robert Buckland, Matt Hancock and Geoffrey Cox (May’s Attorney General) are threatening to leave the party if Johnson fails to negotiate a deal with Europe.

The report follows a “fractious” cabinet meeting where ministers complained about Johnson’s chief advisor, Dominic Cummings.

“Cabinet will set the strategy, not an unelected official. If this is an attempt to do that then it will fail. We are not a cabinet of sock puppets,” one minister told the Times.

Still, Downing Street is struggling with “mounting concerns” of more resignations. One cabinet minister said the Tories could see a “very large number” of defections if it came to a “no deal” Brexit.

The report about the defections comes one day after Johnson was accused of playing “a stupid blame game” over Brexit by European Council President Donald Tusk.

Meanwhile, BBC reports that, in what sounds like a repeat of the endless Parliamentary wrangling over Theresa May’s Brexit deal, Parliament will be called for a special Saturday session on Oct. 19 after Johnson returns from the last-chance EU summit to try and agree on a deal ahead of the Oct. 31 deadline.

If a deal is agreed with the EU, Johnson will ask MPs to approve it. If not, Parliament will have the opportunity to vote on a range of options, including leaving without a deal, and stopping Brexit altogether.

But for the special Saturday session to take place, MPs will need to agree on a business motion in the Commons.

Johnson has insisted that the UK will leave the EU on Oct. 31 no matter what. But Parliament recently passed something called the Benn Act, which requires Johnson to write to the EU requesting another Brexit delay unless MPs vote to approve a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

The Commons has only ever sat during four Saturdays since 1939, including on Sept. 2 of that year, a meeting spurred by the outbreak of World War II.

The most recent Saturday sitting was on April 3, 1982 pertaining to the invasion of the Falkland Islands.

Meanwhile, more headlines about EU27 officials objecting to Johnson’s alternative Brexit plan has sent the pound on a round-trip during the first half of the European trading day.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey Joins Russia’s Ruble-Based Alternative To SWIFT

After repeated warnings over the past couple of years, Turkey and Russia have signed a pact to increase use of the ruble and lira in cross-border payments, with Turkey signing on to Russia’s alternative to SWIFT, the international telecommunications protocol used by banks and central banks the world over.

Though SWIFT is an international cooperative owned by its members, with more than 10,000 banks worldwide relying on its system for handling sizable inter-bank transactions, the safety of the network was brought into question after a series of cyberattacks in 2015 and 2016 resulted in the theft of $101 million from the Central Bank of Bangladesh.

For the first time since SWIFT’s laucnh, the hacks stoked doubts about the system’s safety, and prompted many US rivals, including Russia, to ramp up work on their alternatives to SWIFT.

Erdogan and Putin

In addition to Turkey, China and Russia have signed agreements to bolster trade between the two countries, including settling a larger percentage of their bilateral trade in rubles and renminbi. For China, bilateral trade with Russia grew from $69.6 billion in 2016 to $107.1 billion last year. China is Russia’s biggest partner for imports and exports.

There has also been talk about India joining Russia’s SWIFT alternative as Washington continues to threaten New Delhi with sanctions over its decision to purchase Russian-made missile-defense systems.

According to ReutersRussian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov signed the agreement with Ankara on Tuesday. The agreement, signed on Oct. 4, will encourage the two countries to start using Russia’s system in mutual settlements.

The agreement envisions Turkish banks and companies becoming connected to the Russian version of the SWIFT payment system, while enhancing the infrastructure in Turkey to allow Russian MIR cards, designed by Moscow as alternative to MasterCard and VISA, to work.

Though President Trump on Tuesday reiterated his love and respect for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it’s worth remembering President Putin’s warning about the potential ramifications of American sanctions, which risk undermining the dollar’s dominance of the global financial system by driving more countries to use alternatives to SWIFT.

For example, President Trump’s sanctions against Iran prompted Washington’s European Union allies to try and launch their own SWIFT alternative to make payments to Iran.

As Putin warned, American sanctions against Russia are a “colossal strategic mistake” and eventually risk undermining the dollar-based hegemony of the global financial system.

 end

Watch Turkish Troops & Tanks Travel Into Syria As US Backs Away

Just like the Kurds warned, Turkish troops have started crossing into northeastern Syria as the country begins a military offensive that President Erdogan has insisted is vital for Turkey’s security. As of early Wednesday morning in New York, a small group of Turkish forces had already entered the country, and reinforcements of troops and artillery were preparing to take up positions, Bloomberg reports.

One video that has been circulating on Twitter showed Turkish troops crossing the border, as journalists warned that “a new phase of this bloody regional war could be about to begin.”

Mark Stone

@Stone_SkyNews

🎥 The latest from the / border as Turkish troops and artillery take up positions. Despite international calls for Turkey to hold back, a new phase of this bloody regional war could be about to begin. @SkyNews

Embedded video

Even BBG is reporting that the goal of the Turkish operation is to “force back Kurdish militants controlling the border area.” Turkish troops entered Syria at two points along the border near the Syrian towns of Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ayn.

Bloomberg said there was “no immediate comment from Kurdish-led forces” though it noted that the YPG had earlier vowed to defend themselves against any Turkish attack.

Turkish markets were treading water on Wednesday after President Trump insisted that the US wouldn’t stand in Turkey’s way, but that Ankara had promised him that Washington’s allies in the area – i.e. the Kurds – would be safe, with Trump threatening to “obliterate” the Turkish economy if Turkish forces attack the wrong people.

In what has been described as a “dramatic” reversal in US foreign policy, Trump signaled earlier in the week that the US would turn over thousands of ISIS members to Turkey (after their home countries overwhelmingly refused to take them back), and allow the Turkish military to cross into northeastern Syria as the US pulls out. However, Trump’s move is in line with his insistence that other NATO members shoulder more of the responsibility for their defense. Turkey is a NATO member.

Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar told state-run TRT TV that “deployments and work is still underway regarding the operation,” indicating that more Turkish forces will move across the border.

If they want to prevent a resurgence of ISIS, they better hurry up. YPG forces have warned about mass jailbreaks of ISIS prisoners during a Turkish invasion.

Turkey wants to eliminate the YPG because of its ties to the separatist PKK, a Kurdish party inside Turkey that has been battling against Ankara for decades to try and achieve sovereignty for the country’s Kurds. Ironically, though it was Washington’s closest ally on the ground in Syria, the YPG is considered a terrorist organization.

In a statement, Turkey’s chief of communications warned that Kurds have two options: “They can defect, or we will stop them from disrupting our counter-ISIS efforts.”

We imagine the Kurds will find that very convincing.

As for where Turkey goes from here, one journalist has a breakdown:

Ragıp Soylu

@ragipsoylu

How will Turkey conduct the operation in Syria?

• First phase: 120km area between Tal Abyad/Rasulayn, where US troops withdrew
• Airforce, drones/jets and howitzers will pound YPG targets
• Then Turkish Special Forces and Syrian National Army will enter

— Turkish reports

View image on Twitter

1

end

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0980 UP .00082REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.55 UP 0.314 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2221   UP   0.317  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3320 DOWN .0018 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 82basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.0980 Last nightShanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 4.56POINTS OR 0.16% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 5.89 POINTS OR 0.02% 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,12%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 5.89 POINTS OR 0.02%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.56 POINTS OR 0.16%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 12% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 117.69  POINTS OR 1.00%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1506.00

silver:$17.79-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.57% !!! UP 6 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.07 UP 6  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 99.00 DOWN 11 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.14% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.20%  UP 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: .15%//UP 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.87 UP 3  points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 72 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.55% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.42% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0980  UP    .0002 or 2 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.55 UP .318 OR YEN DOWN 32 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2221 UP .0032 POUND UP 32 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 18 basis points to 1.3320

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.1131    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.1172 (YUAN UP..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8687 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.20%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.57 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.07 UP 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 99.00 UP 11  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 8.80%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 124.06 POINTS OR 1.04%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 42.52 POINTS 0.78%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 51.80 POINTS or 0.58%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 127.91 POINTS OR 0.61%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 52.36 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 58.13 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    64.91  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.02 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 2 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.55 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  52.36//

 

 

BRENT :  58.13

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.57..

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.07..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0980 ( DOWN 2  BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107 55 UP.318 (YEN DOWN 32 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 99.00 DOWN 11 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2221 UP 32  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8687

 

 

the Russian rouble 64.91   UP 0.02 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 2 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3320 UP 18 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7,1131  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.1172(OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.55%

 

The Dow closed UP 181.97 POINTS OR 0.70%

 

NASDAQ closed UP: 79.96 POINTS OR 1.02%

 

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  18.64 CLOSED DOWN 1.64

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.012%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Late-Day China Trade Headline Spoils Low-Volume Stock Market Party

Today’s liftathon in stocks bought to you by the word “partial” (as in “China is amenable to a partial trade deal” which is entirely not news at all) and the number 2829 (the S&P 500 100-day moving average) because that means “all is well”

 

Trade deal odds had lifted…

Source: Bloomberg

And the S&P 500 levitated back to its 100DMA…

But a late-day headline that Beijing has lower expectations of progress – due to the goodwill damage from US blacklisting 28 tech firms:

1544ET GOODWILL DAMAGED BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE’S BLACKLISTING OF 28 CHINESE COMPANIES THIS WEEK-CHINESE OFFICIALS

1545ET BEIJING HAS LOWERED EXPECTATIONS FOR PROGRESS FROM U.S. TRADE NEGOTIATIONS THIS WEEK-CHINESE OFFICIALS BRIEFED ON TALKS

Sparked a dump in stocks…

NOTE – the headline timing was extremely odd as it hit right as the S&P hit its 100DMA…

 

But, despite gains today, US majors remain red on the week…

Volume overall was notably weak – around 30% below average…

Source: Bloomberg

While credit markets are not in panic mode yet, leveraged loan markets are starting to crack…

Source: Bloomberg

Another day, another $30bn of liquidity rolled with The Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were all higher across the curve (parallel rise of around 5bps) before the late-day headline (note the selling every day that hits around the EU close)

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar managed gains on the day, following the same overnight weakness, European/US strength pattern…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos rallied on the day with ETH leading today and XRP up most on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were unusually quiet today (apart from oil)…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold spiked to $1518 on the Minutes…

Oil spiked overnight on trade hopes and again on inventories, only to be dumped

Finally, the median stock is trading at a key trendline level…

And don’t forget, it’s all about fun-durr-mentals…

Source: Bloomberg

Is it time for another quant-quake?

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

Futures Soar As China Offers To Buy Another $3 Billion Of US Goods

Indeed, the last hour of watching E-mini S&P500 futures has been a wild ride. There have been two spikes in futures, one at 5:10 am est. or so, when a headline hit detailing how Beijing “may be open” to a “partial” US trade deal.

Then, the next spike, at 5:47 am est. was a 20 point, 71bps pop in 35 seconds, algos went into panic buying after the Financial Times reported Chinese officials offered “to increase annual purchases of US agricultural products by $10bn a year.”

 

China’s lead trade negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He, will meet with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Thursday to hash out a possible lite trade deal, and if all goes well, a potential meeting with President Trump could be seen on Friday.

“Liu He is coming with real offers, it’s not an empty visit,” said one of the people briefed on the talks. “The Chinese are ready to de-escalate.”

And all of these headlines are occurring as E-Mini S&P500 futures struggle to stay above the daily 200ema.

end

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Job Openings Plunge To 17 Month Low As Slide In Hiring, Quitting Confirms Job Market Slowdown

Last month we concluded our analysis of the July Jolts by reminding readers that “JOLTS is 2 months delayed, so we wouldn’t be surprised if next month’s JOLTs is where the real ugliness lies.” That’s precisely what happened.

Just in case the last few disappointing payrolls reports weren’t sufficient to indicate that the US labor market is cooling rapidly, the latest JOLTS released today by the BLS confirmed that US workers are going through a decidedly rough patch, as the total number of job openings dropped again, sliding to 7.051 million, below the 7.250 million expected, and not only below the downward revised June print of 7.174 million (7.217 previously), but the lowest number in 17 months, since March 2018.

Yet even with the slowdown in job openings, there was still more than 1 million more job opening than unemployed workers; in fact there have now been more US job openings than unemployed workers for a record 18 consecutive months.

Unlike last month, though, when there was a modest improvement in the rate of hires and quits, in August the number of hires tumbled by 199K to 5.779 million, which still was modestly above where the payrolls implied number suggests:

The drop in hiring meant that from an annual expansion, hiring once again slumped into the red, dropping by -0.8% in August, down from a +2.5% increase in June.

Finally, in the latest indication of the slowing labor market, we saw the so-called “take this job and shove it” indicator – the total level of “quits” which shows worker confidence that they can leave their current job and find a better paying job elsewhere – reversed from last month’s rebound, and in August the number of quits tumbled by 142K to 3.526MM from 3.668MM, and the biggest monthly drop since January.

Overall, this was the ugliest JOLTS report in more than year, which perhaps was to be expected in light of last week’s poor payrolls number.

end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Trump Demands Vote As White House Rejects Democrats’ “Constitutionally Invalid” Impeachment ‘Inquiry’

The White House has implicitly moved to force Speaker Pelosi’s hand to a formal vote by confirming in a letter that President Donald Trump and his administration won’t participate in the House impeachment inquiry, calling it unconstitutional and invalid, and framing it as an effort to “overturn the results of the 2016 election.”

White House counsel Pat Cipollone wrote in the letter (full letter below) that:

“You have designed and implemented your inquiry in a manner that violates fundamental fairness and constitutionally mandated due process.”

While Pelosi claims that House committees have full authority to investigate, The White House disagrees, refusing to participate in any hearings or respond to subpoenas:

“President Trump and his Administration reject your baseless, unconstitutional efforts to overturn the democratic process. Your unprecedented actions have left the President with no choice. In order to fulfill his duties to the American people, the Constitution, the Executive Branch, and all future occupants of the Office of the Presidency, President Trump and his Administration cannot participate in your partisan and unconstitutional inquiry under these circumstances.”

Because, simply put, no vote has been taken:

“Your inquiry is constitutionally invalid and a violation of due process.

In the history of our Nation, the House of Representatives has never attempted to launch an impeachment inquiry against the President without a majority of the House taking political accountability for that decision by voting to authorize such a dramatic constitutional step.”

Thus forcing Pelosi and Schiff to put names to the impeachment farce (most notably those Democrats in swing districts) or the probe dies here – and the media-sponsored narrative with it.

“Your contrived process is unprecedented in the history of the Nation, and lacks the necessary authorization for a valid impeachment proceeding…”

We look forward to the response from the Democrats as yet another deep state coup fantasy crashes on the shores of constitutional reality (no matter what Chuck Todd says), even as top Democrats, as The Hill notes, have warned that the administration’s failure to comply with their requests could be cited as obstruction in future articles of impeachment.

Full Letter Below:

END

Fed Takes $31 Billion Securities In Overnight Repo As “Not A QE” Looms

The NY Fed announced that it accepted $30.8BN in securities ($26.25BN in TSYs and $4.550BN in MBS) in its latest overnight repo operation, shortly after the latest overnight G/C repo rate printed at an “unstressed” 1.90% this morning.

This was down from Tuesday’s $37.5BN and was the lowest repo allotment since Sept 27.

Of course, after Tuesday’s speech in which Powell preannounced the return of POMOs, confirming that these “temporary” operations are about to become permanent as the Fed grows permanently grows its balance sheet by purchases of Treasurys, reportedly Bills at first, the overnight POMO has now become just a placeholder until November when the new “not a QE” is set to begin and expand the Fed’s balance sheet by about $20BN in 10 Year equivalents every month.

As such, predictably the stress in the repo market is gone and the only question is what the final structure of the new POMO will look like, and specifically what the Fed will announce on how many Treasuries the Fed will have to buy.

But wait, didn’t Powell say not to confuse what is coming with QE? Alas, as we first explained and then as Capital Economics confirmed, the Federal Reserve “will struggle to convince markets that a resumption of Treasury purchases to avoid future money-market turmoil is not another round of quantitative easing” according to Capital Economics chief U.S. economist Paul Ashworth: “Hard to communicate that effectively when the Fed’s organic balance sheet growth will be half the size of the ECB’s newly unveiled QE,” Ashworth wrote in note Tuesday

According to CapEcon, the Fed will need to buy $120b of additional Treasury securities per year to prevent any further decline in reserve balances. On top of that, Fed could also buy another $100b-$300b of Treasury securities in first year, to avoid mismatch of demand/supply in repo market like mid-September’s.

So yes, just as we first had “not a flamethrower” which was, for all intents and purposes, a flamethrower, we now have “not a QE”, which is, for all intents and purposes, QE.

Sven Henrich

@NorthmanTrader

View image on Twitter

Alas, in this “brave new world” where one is no longer allowed to call a spade a spade (especially if it risks jeopardizing Chinese investments, right NBA?), what one has to remember is that the return of QE is anything but. No matter what one calls it however, the Fed’s overnight repo no longer matters as the turmoil in the funding market has been stabilized for now, and certainly until POMO returns. The bigger problem is if we still have repo turmoil after “not a QE” is back. In that case, all bets will officially be off as the Fed loses its last shred of credibility.

end

The Surge In “Surprise” Medical Bills Bankrupting Americans Can Be Blamed On Private Equity

Surging “surprise” medical bills in the U.S. are private equity’s fault, a new FT opinion piece claims.

These “surprise” medical bills continue to be a major talking point in the U.S. and are likely to be a key issue during the upcoming 2020 Presidential race. The term refers to invoices that are generated after a patient is admitted to the hospital and treated, without their knowledge, by someone not in their insurance plan.

And a recent Stanford study shows that these “surprise” bills continue to become more ubiquitous. They are up from about 33% of visits in 2010 to almost 43% in 2016. For inpatient stays, the number is even more alarming: the jump goes from 26% to 42%, with the average cost per patient rising from $804 to $2,040. It’s an issue that only adds to the overwhelming debt bubble we have again created in the U.S.

The opinion piece notes that these rising costs come not from hospitals, but rather from the “backwaters of the financial markets”:

The prices of junk bonds issued by “physician services companies” have been sliding in the past month as their owners weigh the possibility and costs of political intervention. These point to the real source of the problem: private equity’s silent colonisation of parts of the healthcare profession.

A recent paper by two US academics highlights how private equity activity has driven up the price of healthcare for American consumers. The problem is a result of “the interplay of buyout strategies (which pile leverage on to companies and emphasise financial returns) and the business of treating people, where sick patients have no power to shop around and outcomes come first,” the piece notes.

Private equity has acted as a consolidator in healthcare services, building giant physician services groups like Envision, HealthTeam and AirMedical Group.

Envision was a company that was flipped between public and private ownership since 2005. It employs 70,000 staff and spans services like emergency rooms, radiology and anaesthesiology. The businesses are perfect for what private equity is looking for. The academic paper states:

“Emergency medical services are a perfect buyout target because demand is inelastic, that is it does not decline when prices go up.”

And in addition to being inelastic, demand is robust: about 50% of medical care comes from emergency room visits.

The deals that physician service groups work out with hospitals are rarely transparent to the public. And this is probably for good reason:

But a study by Yale University of the billing practices of EmCare, Envision’s physician staffing arm, showed that when it took over the management of emergency rooms, it nearly doubled patient charges compared with those levied by previous physician organisations.

Which raises the question why hospitals go along with these arrangements. Well, some have struck joint-venture deals with physician companies, splitting the extra revenues these entities stick on patients. But for many, they don’t have the resources or the industry clout to combat surprise billing on their own.

As a result, congress is now considering legislation to curb “surprise” billing in healthcare. The larger debate, as the U.S. will certainly be subjected to leading up to 2020, is whether or not private equity companies belong in the healthcare sector to begin with. Their tactics have done nothing but “give more credence to the arguments of Elizabeth Warren and others,” the piece concludes.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Durham investigation into origins of 2016 Trump campaign surveillance expands its scope

Durham has expanded his investigation adding agents and resources[likely found criminal acts] The timeline has grown from the beginning of the probe through the election and now has included a post-election timeline through the spring of 2017, up to when Robert Mueller was named special counsel…  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/durham-investigation-trump-campaign-surveillance-expanded-scope

 

Multiple administration officials tell Fox News that when Robert Mueller met with President Trump in May of 2017, Mueller was indeed pursuing the open post as the director of the FBI – something the former Russia probe special counsel denied under oath during congressional testimony this summer.

These officials also told Fox News government documents showed Mueller was pursuing the job as a candidate himself…  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/robert-mueller-fbi-director-job-trump-meeting

 

Whistleblower had tie to [2020] Democratic [presidential] candidate

“The IG said [the whistleblower] worked or had some type of professional relationship with one of the Democratic candidates,” said one person with knowledge of what was said. “The IG said the whistleblower had a professional relationship with one of the 2020 candidates,” said another person with knowledge of what was said…  https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/whistleblower-had-tie-to-democratic-candidate

 

@realDonaldTrump responding to the above story: This is just the beginning, thank you to @ByronYork

 

Pat Cipollone, Counsel to the President, told House Dems that the WH won’t cooperate with their inquiry.

 

“You have designed and implemented your inquiry in a manner that violates fundamental fairness and constitutionally mandated due process… you seek to overturn the results of the 2016 election and deprive the American people of the President they have freely chosen. The President cannot allow your constitutionally illegitimate proceedings to distract him and those in the Executive Branch from their work on behalf of the American people…

  1. Your “Inquiry” Is Constitutionally Invalid and Violates Basic Due Process Rights and the Separation of Powers…
  2. The Invalid “Impeachment Inquiry” Plainly Seeks To Reverse the Election of 2016 and To Influence the Election of 2020…

    III. There Is No Legitimate Basis for Your “Impeachment Inquiry”; Instead, the Committees’ Actions Raise Serious Questions…  https://whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/PAC-Letter-10.08.2019.pdf

 

The above developments provided a testosterone infusion into Senate Republican leadership.

 

Sen. Grassley: Senators Seek Status Update on Criminal Referrals of Spurious Allegations Made During Kavanaugh Nomination – Wrote to Attorney General William Barr and FBI Director Christopher Wray requesting information on how many criminal investigations were opened and referred for prosecution as a result of the initial referrals from the Senate…

https://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/news-releases/senators-seek-status-update-criminal-referrals-spurious-allegations-made-during

 

Senate Judiciary Chair @LindseyGrahamSC: Given the House of Representatives’ behavior, it is time for the Senate to inquire about corruption and other improprieties involving Ukraine. Therefore I will offer to Mr. Giuliani the opportunity to come before the Senate Judiciary Committee to inform the committee of his concerns… Unlike the House of Representatives, I’m tired of only hearing one side of the story.  It’s now time to give voice to everything Ukraine.   Let the chips fall where they may!

 

SCHIFF-PELOSI CAUGHT IN UKRAINIAN ARMS SCANDAL: Giuliani Confirms TGP’s Prior Exclusive – Schiff and Pelosi’s Ukrainian Donor Was Given Lucrative Defense Contracts!

    Speaker Pelosi and Democrat Rep. Adam Schiff are both connected to a Ukrainian arms dealer. This is why they lie in front of the nation. They are afraid of their own deeds being uncovered! 

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/10/schiff-pelosi-caught-in-ukrainian-arms-scandal-giuliani-confirms-tgps-prior-exclusive-schiff-and-pelosis-ukrainian-donor-was-given-lucrative-defense-contracts/

 

Hunter Biden owns stake in Chinese company blacklisted by US   https://yhoo.it/2M01hX7

 

[GOP Rep] Devin Nunes: Intelligence Community Inspector General ‘Knowingly Changed’ Whistleblower Complaint Form

    “So he’s either incompetent or in on it, and he’s going to have more to answer for, I can promise you, because we are not going to let him go; he is going to tell the truth about what happened,” Nunes added.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/10/07/exclusive-devin-nunes-intelligence-community-inspector-general-knowingly-changed-whistleblower-complaint-form/

 

Former George W. Bush chief of staff endorses Trump impeachment inquiry

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/464763-former-george-w-bush-chief-of-staff-endorses-trump-impeachment

 

Colin Powell expressed similar sentiments the other day.  Team Bush must be very nervous about something.  Saudi Arabia’s role in 9/11?  Deep State abuses/illegal surveillance under W Bush?

 

The CIA Just Declassified the Document That Justified the Iraq Invasion; The Bush White House Looks Very Very Very Bad – Some 17 years ago, the intelligence community concluded in a 93-page classified document used to justify the invasion of Iraq that it lacked “specific information” on “many key aspects” of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs.

    But that’s not what top Bush administration officials said during their campaign to sell the war to the American public. Those officials, citing the same classified document, asserted with no uncertainty that Iraq was actively pursuing nuclear weapons, concealing a vast chemical and biological weapons arsenal, and posing an immediate and grave threat to US national security… The NIE also said Hussein did not have “sufficient material” to manufacture any nuclear weapons…

    In September 2002, then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld claimed the US had “bulletproof” evidence linking Hussein’s regime to the terrorist group… But the NIE said its information about a working relationship between al Qaeda and Iraq was based on “sources of varying reliability” — like Iraqi defectors — and it was not at all clear that Hussein had even been aware of a relationship…

https://truepundit.com/the-cia-just-declassified-the-document-that-justified-the-iraq-invasion-the-bush-white-house-looks-very-very-very-bad/

 

Retired FBI special agent and legal attaché Thomas J. Baker: The FBI Is Lucky to Have William Barr

Agents in the field during his first stint as attorney general had nothing but praise: ‘He knows no fear.’

     Comey and Brennan have repeatedly and publicly questioned Mr. Barr’s motives. They and their media allies warn that declassifying documents from the inquiry would set a dangerous precedent. Mr. Barr shows no signs of backing down.  He is also looking at the culture of political correctness that has caused the FBI and other agencies to slink away from a frank discussion of the Islamist threat… Those who now work under Mr. Barr speak of him the same way we did during his first tour: “He knows no fear.”  https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fbi-is-lucky-to-have-william-barr-11570488015?reflink=share_mobilewebshare

 

@GeorgePapa19: First, I testified against both Downer and Mifsud a year ago to help launch Durham’s investigation. Now, the fruit of that accurate testimony is exposing the global nature of the attempt to set up the 2016 campaign and interfere in the democratic process. Was my patriotic duty!

 

Biden Spokesperson: Obama White House Approved Hunter Biden’s Position [Joe implicates BHO]

Kate Bedingfield, Deputy Campaign Director and Communications Director of the Biden 2020 Campaign, revealed that Hunter Biden’s position on the board of Burisma was approved by the White House in 2014.  With this new revelation, it is extremely hard to believe that Vice President Joe Biden would not have been fully briefed about possible conflicts of interest in his dealings with Ukraine…

https://thegreggjarrett.com/biden-spokesperson-obama-white-house-approved-hunter-bidens-position/

 

Elizabeth Warren’s Story about Getting Fired For Being “Visibly Pregnant” Unravels After Documents, Video Emerge – Minutes of an April 21, 1971, Riverdale Board of Education meeting obtained by the Washington Free Beacon show that the board voted unanimously on a motion to extend Warren a “2nd year” contract for a two-days-per-week teaching job… What’s more, the minutes from a June 16, 1971 meeting include: “The resignation of Mrs. Elizabeth Warren, speech correctionist effective June 30, 1971 was accepted with regret.”…

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/elizabeth-warrens-story-about-getting-fired-being-visibly-pregnant-unravels-after

 

FBI’s Use of Foreign-Surveillance Tool Violated Americans’ Privacy Rights, Court Found

U.S. discloses ruling last year by Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court that FBI’s data queries of U.S. citizens were unconstitutional [controversial foreign intelligence program]…

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fbis-use-of-foreign-surveillance-tool-violated-americans-privacy-rights-court-found-11570559882

 

Report Shows FBI Official [Comey’s spokesman] Received Sports Tickets from CNN Reporter and Lied about It to Investigators    https://dailycaller.com/2019/10/07/exclusive-fbi-official-sports-tickets-cnn

 

CBS: Obama admin spent $36M on lawsuits to keep info secret

The Obama administration in its final year in office spent a record $36.2 million on legal costs defending its refusal to turn over federal records under the Freedom of Information Act, according to an Associated Press analysis of new U.S. data that also showed poor performance in other categories measuring transparency in government…

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/obama-administration-spent-36m-on-records-lawsuits-last-year/

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

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