OCT 10//BIG RAID IN GOLD AND SILVER TODAY//GOLD DOWN $10.00 TO $1497.90//SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TO $17.56//QUEUE JUMPING FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AT THE COMEX..STRANGE!! DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE A HUGE 1.443 MILLION OZ ADDITION TO THE SLV…//ALL COMEX DATA COMPLETE//ALL MORNING, AFTERNOON AND EVENING DATA COMPLETE//MAJOR STORIES PROVIDED FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1497.90 DOWN $10.00(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.56 DOWN 22 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1493.80

 

silver:  $17.57

I

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING  10/75

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,506.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/09/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 10/11/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 15
661 C JP MORGAN 10
737 C ADVANTAGE 56 48
800 C MAREX SPEC 19
905 C ADM 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 75 75
MONTH TO DATE: 10,707

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT: 75 NOTICE(S) FOR 7500 OZ (0.2332 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  10,707 NOTICES FOR 1,070,700 OZ  (33.303 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR 0CT

 

 

2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 10,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 925 for 4,625,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

 

 

 

 

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 8495 DOWN  65 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8508 DOWN 49 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE  SIZED 1876 CONTRACTS FROM 213,968 DOWN TO 212,092 DESPITE THE 14 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR SEPT 0,; DEC  1827 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1827 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1827 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1827 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 9.135 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 14 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

6.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

 

YESTERDAY, ANOTHER MAJOR ATTEMPT BY THE BANKERS TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL AT THE SILVER COMEX AS ANOTHER RAID WAS INITIATED.  OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR//BANKERS AGAIN USED HUGE COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN THEIR UNSUCCESSFUL ENDEAVOUR TO WHACK SILVER’S PRICE (15 CENTS HIGHER). HOWEVER TO THEIR SHOCKING SURPRISE, AGAIN AND AGAIN NOBODY LEAVES THE SILVER COMEX ARENA . TODAY’S READING ILLUSTRATES THE FACT THAT THE BANKERS LIGHTENED UP ON THE HUGE SHORT POSITION AT THE COMEX BUT LONGS JUST MORPHED INTO LONDON FORWARDS.

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF OCT:

10,017 CONTRACTS (FOR 8 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 10,017 CONTRACTS) OR 50.08 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1252 CONTRACTS OR 6.26 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  50.08 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 7.15% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1689.87   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1876, DESPITE THE 14 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1827 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE LOST A TINY  SIZED: 49 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  

i.e 1827 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1876  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 14 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.78 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.060 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 151% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 2 NOTICE(S) FOR 10,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 6.32 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 3020 CONTRACTS, TO 619,977 ACCOMPANYING THE $8.90 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// /

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 6165 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  6165 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 619,977,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9,185 CONTRACTS: 3,020 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 6165 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 9185 CONTRACTS OR 918,500 OZ OR 28.56 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $8.90 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 28.56  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON AS ANOTHER RAID WAS INITIATED WHICH FAILED SO THEY TRIED AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE BANKERS WERE VERY UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE AND AGAIN THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING LONGS. 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT : 31,481 CONTRACTS OR 3,148,100 oz OR 97.92 TONNES (8 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 3935 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 97.92 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 97.92/3550 x 100% TONNES =2.72% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4761.62  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3020 WITH THE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($8.90)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6165 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6165 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 9185 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6165 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 3020 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 28.56 TONNES). ..AND THIS STRONG INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.90 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  75 notice(s) filed upon for 7500 oz of gold at the comex.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $10 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD FROM THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71  TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY:

STRANGE!!

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A PAPER ADDITION OF 1,443 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

 

end

 

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1876 CONTRACTS from 213,968 DOWN TO 212,092 AND FURTHER FROM  A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR OCT. 0; FOR DEC  1827:  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1827 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 1876  CONTRACTS TO THE 1827 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 49 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 0.245 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 6.32 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI DESPITE THE COMEX WITH THE 14 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1827 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.85 POINTS OR 0.78%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 25.12 POINTS OR 0.10%   /The Nikkei closed UP 96.60 POINTS OR 0.45%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .06%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.1185 /Oil UP TO 53.32 dollars per barrel for WTI and 58.77 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1185 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1123 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 3020 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 619,977 ACCOMPANYING THE GAIN OF $8.90 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6165 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR SEPT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 6165   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6165 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 9185 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6165 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 3020 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN CONTAINING GOLD’S PRICE AS IT ROSE BY A STRONG GAIN OF $8.90. HOWEVER, JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY UNSUSPECTING LONGS. THE RAID THIS MORNING  WAS ANOTHER ATTEMPT TO FORCE LONGS TO LEAVE THE GOLD ARENA

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  9185 CONTRACTS OR 918500 OZ OR 28.56 TONNES.

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER.  This month is generally the poorest delivery month of the year as must players prefer to go straight to the big active delivery month of December. Strangely October will turn out to be a huge delivery month. Today we have 293 contracts still standing for a LOSS of 144 contracts. Yesterday we had 229 notices served upon so we despite the raid yesterday and today, we have a gain of 85 contracts or an additional 8500 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. We again have queue jumping by the bankers in their attempt to find physical metal.

 

The next active delivery month after October is the non active contract month of November. Here we saw a GAIN of 2 contracts and thus the OI INCREASED to 1038  The very big December contract month saw its oi RISE by 1777 contracts UP to 484,018.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 75 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  7500 OZ. (0.7122TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI fell BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1876 CONTRACTS FROM 213,968 DOWN TO 212,092 (AND FURTHER FROM A NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED DESPITE A 14 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER.  HERE WE HAVE 339 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF ONLY 4 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 2 CONTACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE LOST 2 CONTRACTS OR 10,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL NOT STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH.  THEY MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS ACCEPTING A FIAT BONUS.

 

AFTER OCTOBER WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND HERE  WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 3 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 486. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI FALLS BY 1916 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 159,799.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 2 notice(s) filed for 10,000, OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 413,700  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  300,383  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

OCT 10/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz xx oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

xx

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
75 notice(s)
 7500 OZ
(0.,2332 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
208 contracts
(20800 oz)
0.6469 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
10,707 notices
1,070,700 OZ
33.303 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had xx dealer entry:

We had xx kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: xxoz

total dealer withdrawals: xx oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else  xx

 

 

 

total gold deposits: xxx  oz

 

 

we had xx gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; xx  oz

FOR THE OCT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 75 contract(s) of which 10 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,707) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT. (293 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (75 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,091,500 OZ OR 33.95 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of OCT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (10707 x 100 oz)  + (293)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (75 x 100 oz )which equals 1,091500 oz standing OR 33.95 TONNES in this  active delivery month of OCT.

We gained a strong 85 contracts OR 8500 ADDITIONAL OZ which queue jumped as our bankers //official sector were searching for badly needed physical

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 3 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

AND NOW……………………………………………………………………………     OCT. 33.95 TONNES

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT IN SEPT 2 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.6 TONNES.

IF WE ADD THE THREE DELIVERY MONTHS: 66.55

TONNES- 2.60 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 63.95 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1,147,640.808 oz or  35.696 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,188,292.958 oz 254.69 tonnes

IN THE LAST 35 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
OCT 10 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 xxx oz

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
xx oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
xx oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
2
CONTRACT(S)
(10,000,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
337 contracts
 1685000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  925 contracts

4,625,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: xx  oz

total dealer withdrawals: xx oz

we had  xxx deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into  xxx

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  xxx  oz

 

we had xx withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total xxx  oz

 

we had x adjustment :

 

total dealer silver:  xxx million

total dealer + customer silver:  vxxx million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the OCT 2019. contract month is represented by 2 contract(s) FOR 10,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 925 x 5,000 oz = 4,625,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (339) and the number of notices served upon today 2 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 925 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (339)- number of notices served upon today (2x 5000 oz equals 6,310,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month. 

WE  LOST 2 contracts or an additional 10,000 oz of silver will NOT stand at the comex as they guys refused to morph into london based forwards. For the past several weeks we have been witnessing queue jumping in both gold and silver.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 2 notice(s) filed for 10,000 OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  96,347 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 71,958 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 71,958 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 359 million  OZ 51.3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.50% ((SEPT 30/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.06% to NAV (SEPT 30/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.50%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.66 TRADING 14.17///DISCOUNT 3.34

 

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.00 TODAY, A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921,71 TONNES

OCT.9//WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT 8\WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

0CT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN 7 DOLLARS//A BIG CHANGE //A DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES//

INVENTORY RISES TO 923.76 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $15.25 A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 920.83 TONNES

SEPT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $32.50: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.88 TONNES

SEPT 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 26//WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90 A HUGE  PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  16.42 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

 

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.65 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN OUT OF THIS WORLD DEPOSIT OF 14.37 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 10.65 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 ON THE DAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.06 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 16/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A BIG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 12//WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A HUGE 7.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.15 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

 

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OCT 10/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 923.76 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 677 TRADING DAYS: 27.94 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 577 TRADING DAYS: A NET 139.20 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 10/2016//WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: A HUGR CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.443 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 166,000 OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 1.2019 //WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.87 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.656 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25.//WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.338 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23.2019/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.899 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION PAPER OZ OF SILVER///INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.425 MILLION PAPER OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.179 MILLION OZ../

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 60 CENTS TODAY: A RATHER TIMID CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 842,000 PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 386.604 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

OCT 10/2019:

 

 

Inventory 384.939 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.24/ and libor 6 month duration 2.20

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .04

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.21%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.22

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.01

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

iii) Other physical stories:

Peter Schiff: “Gold Is Going To Be Money Again” Because Of Gigantic Global Debt Time Bomb

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Money manager Peter Schiff says the Federal Reserve has already started a new money printing program that continues to expand the debt bubble and keep global markets propped up. This started abruptly last month in what is called the “repo market,” where the Fed provides liquidity for traders of short-term money or overnight funding.

Schiff says, “When the Fed was doing QE3, they were buying $85 billion worth of debt per month. They (Fed) just did $176 billion in three weeks, and they say they are not doing QE…”

“So, the Fed is monetizing more debt not doing QE than when they were doing QE, which means they are doing it and they are going to have to do more of it. The reason they are doing it is because the markets are finally trying to move interest rates higher because the Fed has been suppressing them.  They are artificially low, and these artificially low interest rates have done tremendous damage to the economy over the years. Now, rates are rising, and the Fed is trying to stop this from happening. They shouldn’t do this, but this is what they have to do to keep the bubble from imploding. This is why they have to go back to QE. If they didn’t, rates would be much higher, the stock market would be much lower, real estate prices would be coming down and we would be heading for another financial crisis.

What is the end goal in all of this? Schiff contends, “The only goal our leaders have is to postpone the pain so they can get re-elected…”

“That’s the whole idea. Look, this is a gigantic time bomb; we just have to make sure that the fuse is longer. We have an election coming up, and the Fed Chair just wants to make sure they can keep everything going long enough to resign and have somebody else be the fall guy. Nobody cares about the long term health of the economy, and the plan is to delay the inevitable and pretend everything is good. . . . As far as the debt is concerned, the debt is never going to be repaid. We can’t repay it, and, in fact, nobody even believes we are going to repay it.

So, what is the next move by central bankers? Schiff says, “It’s more politically expedient to take the printing route, especially because nobody believes they are going to destroy the currency…”

“They think they are going to print enough money to reduce the value of the debt enough to make everything go away. It’s like trying to get a little bit pregnant, which is impossible to do. So, once they start monetizing debt in that way, then that’s it. The dollar is going to get killed. That’s where we are headed. That’s the only thing that hasn’t happened yet. Gold has broken out. Gold is over $1,500 per ounce, and it is hitting record highs in most currencies. Not in the dollar, yet. The dollar is still relatively strong against other fiat currencies, but the fact it is this weak against gold shows you there is a lot of underlying weakness in the dollar that has yet to manifest . . . but that is going to happen. When the dollar starts to fall, that’s going to take the bond market down with it. Long term interest rates are ultimately going to rise when the dollar tanks.”

Source: Bloomberg

Schiff also says, “I think gold is undervalued relative to where it should be because so many people have too much confidence in central banks and fiat money…”

“They don’t realize they need to own gold. I think they are going to come to that epiphany soon, and when they do, the price of gold is going to explode...

Gold is going to be money again. There is no question in my mind that is going to happen.

Schiff predicts President Trump will not get re-elected but not because of impeachment, but the failing economy. Schiff says, “The trade deficits are bigger than they have ever been. They are bigger than they were under Obama…”

Manufacturing is already in recession, and it will be deeper in recession by the time the election comes. The numbers are the worst they have been since 2009.

Most blue collar voters who voted for Trump in 2016 will be worse off in 2020. They will have more debt, and they will have lower real wages if they even have jobs.

Now, who are they going to take a chance on, some socialist Democrat who is promising to punish the rich and take their money and give it to them?

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with money manager Peter Schiff, founder of Euro Pacific Capital and Schiff Gold.

*  *  *

 

END

Gold ETF Holdings Hit All Time High After Longest Stretch Of Inflows Since The Financial Crisis

While some investors still naively hold on to the belief that the consistently manipulated (by both institutions and central banks) VIX index is a measure of overall turmoil sentiment in the market, others are rushing to the safest of assets and as global tensions escalate and signs of a global recession mount, more investors are turning to gold. According to Bloomberginvestor holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds have expanded for 17 days in a row, the longest run of inflows since the global financial crisis.

Having panned gold for years, Wall Street sentiment has turned decidedly positive in recent months:

“Gold inflows are likely to persist,” said Citigroup which expects the price of gold to rally to $1,700 an ounce over the next year. “Markedly weak manufacturing and services ISM data show that the slowdown in global trade is starting to bite the U.S. economy.”

“Gold obviously stands to benefit” if China and the U.S. can’t reach a mini deal this week, said Adarsh Sinha, co-head of Asia FX and rates strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

With opinions turned decisively in gold’s favor, it is no surprise that in September, global gold-backed ETFs and similar products had US$3.9bn of net inflows across all regions, increasing their collective gold holdings by 75.2t to 2,808 tonnes(t), the highest levels of all time. According to the World Gold Council, ETF holdings surpassed late 2012 levels, at which time the gold price was near US$1,700/oz, 18% higher than current levels. Notably, the gold-backed ETF landscape is vastly different than in 2012 when two-thirds of global holdings were concentrated in North America. Today, North American- and European-listed funds make up 52% and 44% of global holdings respectively, with the remainder coming from funds listed in Asia and other regions.  

Below we summarize some of the key notable long-term trends observed by the WGC in gold-backed ETFs:

  • Global gold-backed ETFs added 368t (US$17.9bn, 13.4%) YTD, driven by strong inflows in the past four months
  • European funds have grown consistently this year, seeing positive flows in all months except April and UK-based fund holdings are at all-time highs, reaching 582 or 21% of global gold-backed ETF assets in September
  • Strong inflows in North American-listed funds over the past five months have increased the region’s contribution to 2019 growth – as of end September, North America had added 214t compared to 146t in Europe, or 58% of net inflows in 2019
  • Low-cost gold-backed ETFs‡ in the US have seen positive flows for 15 of the past 16 months and have increased their collective holdings by 51% so far this year
  • Asian-listed funds have reversed strong early-year outflows of over 12% and now have grown 8% on the year.

Some more details: North American funds led September’s global flows, adding 62.1t ($3.1bn, 4.5% of AUM), or 83% of net inflows. Low-cost gold-backed ETFs continued to grow, accumulating 2.9t during the month and bringing their collective holdings to 61t, worth $2.9bn. European-listed funds brought in 7.7t ($586mn, 1.0%), mainly in the UK, as investors positioned for an impeding 31 October Brexit decision. Funds in Asia had another month of strong inflows at 3.9t ($187mn, 4.6%), driven by Chinese funds.

The gold-price rally paused as global rates increased and the US dollar strengthened, falling by 3% (in US dollars) in September after having increased by 20% during the previous four months. Yet global demand for gold-backed ETFs remained strong, especially since gold remained near all-time highs in every major G10 currency, except the US dollar and Swiss franc.

Positive sentiment towards gold was also reflected in COMEX net longs, which reached all-time highs equivalent to 1,134t during the month. The volatility skew in the options market was at an all-time high, measured against available data from 2007 onwards. The skew, computed as the difference in premia paid between puts and calls at equivalent strikes, implies that market participants were willing to pay a significant premium for exposure to a higher gold price versus protection against a lower price, suggesting bullish sentiment.

Confirming the bullish tone, global trading volumes remained high across markets, finishing the month at US$183bn a day, but fell 10% from August levels. Meanwhile, volumes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) remained elevated, at US$20bn a day, well above the 2019 y-t-d average of US$9bn and the full year 2018 average of US$3bn.

At the end of the day, however, it is all about what central banks do: global monetary policy continued to influence gold price performance as many central banks around the world cut rates or expanded quantitative easing measures. The Fed cut rates by 25bps in September – a move that was widely expected – with odds of more cuts surging after some decidedly weak economic data at the start of October.

Finally, for investors on the fence, the WGC lists several potential positive catalysts for gold in October: First, global uncertainty continues. The US House of Representatives initiated a preliminary inquiry as to whether to proceed with a formal impeachment investigation of President Trump; a move that could negatively impact risky assets and drive China to potentially delay trade solutions until the 2020 Presidential election. In addition, the deadline for a Brexit decision falls at the end of October, and there is still uncertainty as to whether there will be a ‘No Deal Brexit’ or a deadline extension. Second, despite the increases during September, interest rates worldwide remain low; we estimate that over 80% of sovereign debt is trading with negative real rates, lowering the opportunity cost of investing in gold. Finally, the US stock market is trading near all-time highs and, historically, October is a month when some of the sharpest historical down-moves in stock performance are seen; the most recent of which was last year when the S&P 500 fell 7% during the month. On the flip side, continued dollar strength and a deceleration in gold consumer demand in India and China could create headwinds.

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.1185/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.1123   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 22 POINTS OR 0.78%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 25.12 POINTS OR 0.10%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 96.60 POINTS OR 0.45%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.86/Euro RISESS TO 1.1020

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.20/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 53.32 and Brent: 58.77

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWNCHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.49%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 0.96% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.22%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.45: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.45

3k Gold at $1492.50 silver at: 17.43   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 32/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.57

3m oil into the 53 dollar handle for WTI and 58 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.87 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9949 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.10962 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.49%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.64% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.14%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8686..

 

“The Situation Looks Dire”: Trade Talk Chaos Sparks Overnight Futures Turmoil

If one had to summarize the past 12 hours of trading and newsflow, it would be just one word: “chaos”, interspersed with lots of fake news. Or, as Reuters put it, “markets were bombarded from all sides by denials and counter-denials on both the U.S.-China trade talks and the countdown to Brexit, by Turkey’s military push into Syria and by a blizzard of weak data stretching from Japan to France.”

Exhausted traders have been shellshocked and the market remains tense, awaiting today’s highly anticipated trade talks, after a relentless barrage of contradictory overnight headlines that whipsawed futures and global markets back and forth and did little to help nerves, and we saw just how little conviction there is in markets with the wild swings seen across risk assets in both G10 and EM. After a very choppy Asia session, quiet has descended in London but we expect volatility to pick-up as headlines emerge on the latest status of talks.

The irony: S&P500 futures are now almost exactly where they closed on Wednesday yet anyone who ignored the overnight session missed the following (via RanSquawk):

  1. US and China made no progress on key trade issues in two days of deputy-level talks, sources said, and added the China trade team is now planning to leave Washington on Thursday, a day earlier than previously thought. Chinese delegation refused to talk about IP, sources stated. Further, sources noted that Chinese side had not made headway in persuading US negotiators to consider a freeze on tariff increases. (SCMP) It was later confirmed by Fox’ Lawrence, citing a Chinese trade source, that China trade delegation will leave after one day of talks, adding that no progress was made in US-China Deputy Level talks and the US will not suspend or roll back tariffs. (Twitter)
  2. CNBC’s Tausche initially reported that China talks will still go through Friday, citing a Senior Administration source, “We are not aware of a change in the Vice Premier’s travel plans at this time” and there’s a dinner planned for the delegation Thursday evening in Washington. However, the source later stated, “Friday is an “open question.” One possibility that [Vice Finance Minister] Liao Min stays and [Vice Premier] Liu leaves. A Thursday departure also possible”, via CNBC’s Tausche. Fox’s Lawrence later added that the US team may find out today that Chinese delegation are cutting trade talks short.
  3. US is reportedly weighing a currency pact with China as part of a partial trade deal which could also see a tariff increase next week suspended, according to sources. (Bloomberg) The NYT reported shortly after that US President Trump administration will soon issue licenses allowing some American companies to supply non-sensitive goods to the Chinese telecom giant Huawei, according to source. (NYT) However, the FT later reported that the Trump Administration is reportedly weighing options that would increase inspections on parcels from China in an attempt to crack down on shipments of contraband, according to sources. (FT)
  4. US Commerce Secretary Ross said China trade practices have gotten worse, US prefers not to impose tariffs but tariffs are forcing China to pay attention. US VP Pence said US will demand China open market in trade talks.
  5. China’s MOFCOM urges the US to stop unreasonable pressure on Chinese companies, including Huawei.
  6. The final salvo – so far – came shortly after 6am, when Fox Business’ Edward Lawrence said that “the Chinese delegation worked late into the evening. They went back and forth on if they are staying or not for Friday talks. The sense is that the moves this week with the Entity list and VISA restrictions soured the atmosphere. They could still stay depends on today.”

One way to summarize the above is with the help of this handy chart, which visualizes the key headline catalysts behind the chaos as we enter today’s decisive first (and maybe final) day of trade talks.

Looking at individual markets, Asia enjoyed a broadly positive finish but European stocks then spent their opening dithering as the more serious action took place in the currency markets, where the euro suddenly popped to a two-week high above $1.10 versus the dollar, which in turn slumped sharply, weaker across the board, partly due to market chatter about a currency pact with China to stop devaluation – but there was plenty else too.

The Financial Times reported that the ECB had restarted its bond-buying program last month despite objections of its own officials, a further sign of how the move has reopened divisions within the institution. “The view on the currency story could be swinging here,” said Saxo Bank’s head of European currency strategy, John Hardy, “And the market is sensing that euro-dollar is the pressure point.”

In FX, the the main mover overnight was a rally in China’s offshore yuan, which strengthened to its best levels in more than two weeks after a Bloomberg report that said U.S. and Chinese officials were reviving a currency pact first mooted earlier this year that stops further tariff hikes in return for commitments to hold the yuan stable.

European market activity stood in stark contrast to the high-volatility Asian session which was rocked by conflicting trade reports. Bunds, Treasuries and Gilts drift sideways at lower levels; peripheral yields trade marginally tighter to core as curves bear flatten after brushing off weak industrial production data, especially from France. UK assets ignored data that suggested the nation will avoid a recession this year as eyes remains fixed on Brexit developments. European equities held within Wednesday’s trading range as miners and auto sectors outperformed. USD trades on the backfoot, DXY trades just shy of this week’s lows.

And then there is of course the start of today’s trade negotiations. Top U.S. and Chinese delegations were scheduled to meet in Washington on Thursday and Friday to try to end a bruising 15-month-old trade war. Without significant progress, U.S. President Donald Trump is set to hike the tariff rate on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods to 30% from 25% next Tuesday.

“Barring any surprise today, it looks like their talks are breaking down. The tariff (rate) will be hiked. The ituation looks dire,” said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

However, as Reuters notes, China is unlikely to be willing to make an easy compromise with a U.S. president who seems increasingly vulnerable to domestic political pressure as opposition Democrats seek to impeach him. Democratic presidential contender Joe Biden called for the impeachment of Trump for the first time in a deepening partisan fight over a congressional investigation of the Republican president.

“Mr. Trump’s recent impeachment risk has turned the timetable against him,” Chi Lo, senior economist at BNP Paribas Asset in Hong Kong, wrote in a report to clients. “While China is not eager to reach a trade deal, Mr. Trump is, however, under pressure to get at least a temporary deal done to help his re-election bid before his impeachment risk rises and the U.S. economy weakens further,” Chi said.

In rates, Treasuries yield slipped back after having risen to 1.594% on Wednesday, pressured partly by this week’s heavy bond supply. The 10-year Treasuries yield dipped to one basis point to 1.5836% after sliding as low as 1.54% earlier, although the ECB chatter helped push euro zone yields slightly higher. The price of front-end Fed funds rate futures has been gained on increasing bets on more rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The November contract is almost fully pricing in a 0.25% point cut on Oct. 30.

In commodities, oil prices also dipped on wariness over U.S.-China talks. Brent crude futures fell 0.15% to $58.23 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 0.11% to $52.53 per barrel. Copper rose as much as 1.1% to $5,749 a tonne, however, after falling 0.3%. It looked set to be its best day in a month.

Expected data include inflation and jobless claims. Delta Air Lines is reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,916.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.01% to 380.26
  • MXAP up 0.07% to 155.48
  • MXAPJ up 0.1% to 497.23
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 21,551.98
  • Topix down 0.02% to 1,581.42
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 25,707.93
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 2,947.71
  • Sensex down 0.8% to 37,892.26
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.01% to 6,547.08
  • Kospi down 0.9% to 2,028.15
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to -0.542%
  • Euro up 0.4% to $1.1014
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.5 bps to 0.529%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 0.159%
  • Brent futures down 0.2% to $58.23/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,507.94
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 98.81

 

 

Top Overnight News

  • Chinese and American negotiators are set to start meeting again in Washington on Thursday in the latest round of their so-far fruitless talks to strike a trade deal. If no agreement is reached, the already slowing global economy will face another hurdle, with the U.S. set to raise tariffs on China on Oct. 15 and then on the European Union on Oct. 18
  • The currency accord, which the U.S. said had been agreed to earlier this year before trade talks broke down, would be part of what the White House considers to be a first-phase agreement with Beijing. It would be followed by more negotiations on core issues like intellectual property and forced technology transfers, people familiar with the discussions said
  • China’s trade practices have deteriorated and U.S. tariffs are forcing China to heed American grievances, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross said in a speech in Sydney
  • Officials at the Sept. 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting talked about two options — surrounding the 2% inflation goal in a range, or trying to hit that number on average over time with so-called makeup strategies — promising to offset persistent undershooting of the Fed’s 2% target by allowing prices to run above that for a period of time, or vice versa
  • U.K.’s Johnson will meet Ireland’s Varadkar for crucial talks over lunch as the U.K. and European Union seek a way through the Brexit impasse with time running out to reach a deal. While neither side is brimming with optimism, Ireland’s government said an agreement was “not impossible,” though wide gaps remain.
  • Swiss officials are going to extremes in the canton of Zug to avoid getting penalized by the world’s lowest interest rate. To minimize the amount of cash on hand that would get hit with a charge, Zug’s treasury postponed recouping nearly a billion francs in capital gains tax revenue from the federal government.
  • Italy sold $7 billion of bonds, more than double an initial estimate, in its first offering of U.S. dollar-denominated securities since 2010
  • It’s the biggest event of the year for the City of London, and firms are taking no chances before the Brexit deadline as they ban holidays, beef up access to liquidity and prepare to execute contingency planning.
  • President Donald Trump pressed then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to help persuade the Justice Department to drop a criminal case against an Iranian-Turkish gold trader who was a client of Rudy Giuliani, according to three people familiar with the 2017 meeting in the Oval Office. Tillerson refused, arguing it would constitute interference in an ongoing investigation of the trader, Reza Zarrab, according to the people

Asian equities traded with cautious gains in what was a volatile session amid a plethora of positive/negative trade headlines and source reports. The initial pessimism from the SCMP article saw the E-mini S&P futures drop almost 40 points, although the index future recovered most of its losses after being swayed on journalists’ updates on Twitter, but the notable upside stemmed from sources which suggested US is mulling a currency pact which would also see a suspension to next week’s planned tariffs on China. Finally, the FT report, which placed an additional obstacle in trade talks, saw US equity futures pause just under the levels seen at the beginning of the session. Back to Asia-Pac, ASX 200 (U/C) was initially cushioned by gold miners amid firmer prices in the yellow metal at the Australia cash open, whilst Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) swung between gains and losses in tandem with the JPY. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.8%) opened flat but drifted into positive territory (albeit off highs) as the NYT reported (citing sources) that the Trump Admin is willing to let some US firms deal with Huawei, thus signalling that US is seemingly willing to make some concessions ahead of trade talks.

Top Asian News

  • Family Office Advisers See Interest in Leaving Hong Kong
  • Japan Tech Bellwether Slashes Outlook Below Lowest Estimate
  • Singapore’s Temasek Said to Rule Out Aramco IPO Investment
  • Indonesia Finds One-Fifth of Palm Oil Plantations Are Illegal

Major European bourses mixed, as the market digests a plethora of mixed US/China trade headlines during AsiaPac hours, ahead of principal level talks between the two sides today that resulted in tumultuous back and forth trade overnight. A bout of selling at the European open coincided with some comments out of China MOFCOM (condemning the US for smearing China over treatment of Uighars and for putting pressure on Chinese companies incl. Huawei), although the move quickly pared and although now higher, Indices are still well within overnight ranges. The CAC 40 (+0.5%) is an outperformer, with better than expected earnings from LVMH (+4.1%) and Christian Dior (+3.5%) propping up the index and pulling other luxury names such as Kering (3.2%) higher. Conversely, the FTSE 100 (unch.) is lagging on sterling strength on account of the broadly weaker buck. Looking ahead, though trade developments will likely continue to be the crucial driver of sentiment today, traders will also be watching US CPI, a slate of Central Bank speak from Fed’s Kashkari, Daly, Mester and Bostic and ECB’s Lane for any more clues as to the next move from two of the world’s most important central banks. In terms of the sectors, the picture is mixed; Consumer Discretionary (+1.0%) is the outperformer on aforementioned outperformance in luxury names. The defensive Utilities (-0.5%), Health Care (-0.6%) and Consumer Staples (-0.7%) sectors are the underperformers, while Tech (-0.1%) and Industrials (-0.1%) are also lower. In terms of other individual movers, Lafargeholcim (+2.0%) opened higher after Co. reportedly decided not to bid for Bayer’s USD 3bln Mortar Business, news which saw the latter’s share price fall substantially. Phillips (-8.0%) sunk after earnings underwhelmed. BHP Billiton (+1.5%) shares were supported on the news that Standard Life Aberdeen (+0.9%) own a 4.9% stake in the Co. and are reportedly urging them to suspend membership of groups which engage in obstructive lobbying for the broad fuel industry.

Top European News

  • U.K. Economy Set to Avoid Imminent Recession Despite Poor August
  • Swiss Get Creative to Dodge the ‘Big Pain’ from Negative Rates
  • Buyer of Thomas Cook Shops Aims to Thrive Without Airline Costs
  • Capital-Rich U.K. Banks Offer Spain-Like Spreads Amid Brexit Fog

In FX, USD – The Greenback is softer across the board following FOMC minutes that revealed a bit more polarisation beyond the official divergent dissentions, but a higher recession risk via statistical models that warranted and justified the second insurance cut. Moreover, the Fed remains ready to respond to further threats and headwinds with Chair Powell signalling balance sheet expansion in separate comments, albeit for reserve rather than monetary policy purposes. Ahead, the first weekly claims update post-NFP, while headline inflation data follows weak PPI, as the DXY slips back below 99.000 to test the water under the 21 DMA (98.780) within a 99.073-98.653 range.

  • NZD/AUD/EUR/CHF/GBP – The major beneficiaries of general US Dollar weakness and probably some anticipation or at least hope that out of the mass of conflicting reports on US-China trade talks some form of progress emerges towards a deal. The Kiwi is forming a base above 0.6300 ahead of NZ manufacturing PMI, the Aussie appears more buoyant around 0.6750 and the Euro has finally cleared stiff resistance to breach 1.1000 on the way through a Fib retracement at 1.1021, with 1.1050 next on the radar before another Fib at 1.1055. Elsewhere, the Franc is approaching 0.9900 again, but lagging behind the single currency with the cross elevated between 1.0940-00 parameters and a hefty 1.1 bn Eur/Chf option expiry at the base looks safe for now, if not over the NY cut. Meanwhile, Sterling remains prone to breaking Brexit headlines awaiting PM Johnson’s meeting with his Irish counterpart at midday, but also digested a data deluge that was soft overall albeit not as bad as some feared perhaps. Thus, Cable has survived another scrape with 1.2200 and stops on a break of 0.9000 in Eur/Gbp did not trigger too much further upside.
  • CAD/JPY – The Loonie and Yen have been subject to US-China trade news congestion and knock-on swings in risk sentiment, but both gleaning traction from the aforementioned Buck underperformance, as Usd/Cad retreats to 1.3300 from 1.3345 and Usd/Jpy pares back between 107.75-04 bounds and decent expiry interest spanning 107.00, 107.35-50 and 107.70 (1.2 bn, 1.5 bn and 1.3 bn respectively).
  • SEK/NOK/CNH/TRY – Somewhat mixed fortunes for the Scandi Crowns as Eur/Sek reverses sharply from new decade highs circa 10.9325 to almost 10.8300 on the back of firmer than forecast Swedish inflation data, but Eur/Nok meanders within 10.0880-10.0480 ‘extremes’ after inconclusive Norwegian CPI prints. Similarly, Usd/Cnh is on the soft side and not far from a 7.1000 low on the US-China trade hype in contrast to Usd/Try edging closer to 5.9000 as Turkey’s Syria mission continues amidst mounting international condemnation.

In commodities, the crude complex is slightly lower on Thursday morning, although price action for now largely mirrors that in the equity market, following similarly choppy moves on the mixed trade headlines overnight. In terms of supply updates; Ecuador’s Petroecuador declared a force majeure on exports yesterday after local unrest resulted in the closure of oil fields. The country exported roughly 0.315mln BPD of crude oil in September 2019; ING point out that nearly half of it went to the US West Coast and as such a lack of oil supplies from Ecuador could create some shortages at the West Coast in the short term. Additionally, Shell lifted a force majeure on Bonny Light exports from Nigeria (in place since 13 September), bringing around 0.150mln BPD back online. However, crude markets remain seemingly fixated on demand side factors for now, with the outcome of today’s principal level talks between the US and China likely the key determinant of near-term direction, although traders will also be eyeing OPEC’s Monthly Oil Report at 12.45 BST. In terms of levels; technicians will be eyeing support at USD 51.40/bbl (yesterday’s low) and USD 51.00/bbl (low of the 3rd) and resistance at USD 53.70/bbl (yesterday’s high) and USD 54.00/bbl (high of the 7th) for WTI Nov’ 19 futures. For Brent Nov’ 19 futures, recent highs at the USD 59.35/bbl and USD 59.70 levels may provide some resistance, while Wednesday’s USD 57.40/bbl low may provide some support. Over in the metals complex; price action in Gold has calmed down after the overnight action, with the precious metal currently range bound between the USD 1509/oz and USD 1515/oz levels, well of last night’s USD 1522/oz highs. ING note strong demand for the yellow metal; “Gold ETF investments increased by 0.2mOz yesterday, the seventeenth consecutive day of increases in gold ETF holdings”, the bank notes. Demand for safe-haven gold continues to be strong, they argue, due to the uncertainty over the US-China trade talks, increasing possibilities of another Fed rate cut and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East including the recent clashes between Turkey and Syria. Copper, which also saw choppy action overnight, is higher, after breaking above its USD 2.59/lb 50DMA.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: US CPI MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%; US CPI YoY, est. 1.8%, prior 1.7%
    • US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.4%, prior 2.4%;
    • US CPI Core Index SA, est. 264.7, prior 264.2; US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30am: Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 1.16%; Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 1.5%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,000, prior 219,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.65m, prior 1.65m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 62

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Discovering music in the 1980s led me to be full prey to the marketing devises in the industry. When a new single was released on day one you would be able to buy the 7 inch vinyl single. Then a week later the 12 inch mix would come out with perhaps a new song on it forcing you buy again. Then maybe a week later a cassette single with a live track on it would be released. Oh and don’t forget the picture disc version. Having learnt from this, today we launch the podcast of the 2019 Long-Term Study “The History and Future of Debt”. To find out how to access this click here . It’s on most major podcast providers. This follows the video presentation with the link available on the front cover of the original report here . At the moment we don’t have another format unless I release it as a musical. Watch this space.

The soundtrack to the rest of the year might be dictated by what happens today at the resumption of US/China trade talks in Washington. The negotiations take place with just 5 days left before the planned increase in tariffs which will raise duties from 25% to 30% on $250bn worth of Chinese goods. Ahead of the talks, markets advanced yesterday on optimism that some sort of a small deal might be agreed, with Bloomberg reporting that China is open to a “partial trade deal” in spite of the technology company blacklist. The report said they would accept this on the condition that President Trump doesn’t impose any more tariffs, while Beijing would make “non-core concessions” such as further agricultural purchases. Meanwhile, further positive newsflow came from the FT, which reported that China had offered to increase their purchases of soy beans from 20m tonnes to 30m and to consider changes to non-tariff barriers that have inhibited US agriculture exports in the past. So the mood music is more positive again even if expectations have been dialled back in recent days. The fact that trade-sensitive stocks led equity gains yesterday reflected that, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index up +1.74% while the NASDAQ rose +1.02%. Technology stocks led the S&P 500, which closed +0.91%.

The major US indexes did close off their highs however, as late breaking headlines that Chinese officials have lowered their expectations for progress this week caused a mild selloff into the New York close. Meanwhile, we also saw a flurry of trade headlines overnight which have continued to spark volatility, as initially the SCMP reported that China officially plans to cut their visit to DC short by a day, leaving today instead of Friday, as the two sides made no progress in deputy-level trade talks. This caused S&P 500 futures to drop as much as -1.22%. However, the White House subsequently refuted the SCMP report and Bloomberg reported that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is still scheduled to depart Friday evening, and dinner is on for the delegation tonight in DC. We’ve also seen reports suggesting that the US was prepared to accept a previously-negotiated deal on currency coordination, which would allow them to delay next week’s planned tariff increases while still having a deal to sign. Elsewhere, the New York Times reported that President Trump will soon issue licenses allowing US companies to supply non-sensitive goods to Huawei while the US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, who spoke overnight in Sydney, said that China’s trade practices have “gotten worse” and the tariffs are “forcing China to pay attention,” and added that “It’s very hard to forecast,” the likelihood that the two sides would even reach a partial agreement before saying, “We would like a deal. They would like a deal. We’ll see what happens.”. After whipsawing through the various conflicting headlines, futures on the S&P 500 are currently trading -0.24%.

Like with S&P futures, Asian markets have also been a bit all over the place but have recovered after initial losses. The Nikkei (+0.19%), Hang Seng (+0.18%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.19%) are now all up while the Kospi (-0.95%) is down. As for FX, most currencies are trading strong against the greenback this morning with the US dollar index down (-0.12%). The Chinese onshore yuan is up +0.25% at 7.1150. 10y UST yields are down -1.2bps this morning after seeing similar volatility through the Asian session to equity markets. In commodities, WTI oil prices are down -0.21% while spot gold prices are up +0.21%. As for overnight data releases, Japan’s September PPI came in unchanged month over month and in line with consensus. One additional overnight story to note is that the FT has just published an article suggesting that the ECB council overruled the advice of their monetary policy committee in restarting QE at their last meeting. This further shows the splits at the ECB and will give the new President Lagarde an interesting backdrop as she soon starts her tenure.

Back to yesterday and in Europe, the STOXX 600 was up +0.42% and the DAX advanced +1.04%. Elsewhere Treasuries sold off, with 10yrs +4.8bps while the 2s10s curve steepened +1.4bps. In a day where geopolitical turmoil dominated the headlines, Turkish assets suffered after the country’s military began an offensive against Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria. The action involves the Turkish military moving against Kurdish and alleged Islamic State forces along the Turkish-Syrian border who had previously been partners with the US against Islamic State, but who the Turkish government views as a security threat. The move follows President Trump’s announcement that US troops would be withdrawn from Syria. Although many Republicans in Washington have criticised the President’s decision, and fear it could lead to the return of Islamic State, Trump reiterated his stance yesterday, saying in a tweet that “USA should never have been in Middle East”. The Turkish lira weakened -0.52%, while the BIST 100 equity index closed down -2.17%, its worst day since mid-August.

Over to the Brexit saga now, and with just one week to go until the crucial EU council summit on 17th October, we saw sterling rally yesterday before fading back after the Times of London reported that the EU were willing to make a concession that would allow the Northern Irish Assembly to leave a new backstop if a ‘double majority’ of both the unionist and the nationalist community were to agree. In return, the EU want the customs border to be in the Irish Sea, similar to the Northern-Ireland only backstop that they’ve previously proposed. However, the DUP swiftly rejected any such idea, with their Brexit spokesman Sammy Wilson calling them “worse than Mrs May’s deal”.

We also heard from the BBC’s political editor Laura Kuensssberg that the government would be calling MPs to Westminster for a special sitting of Parliament on Saturday 19 October, after the EU Council summit. For context, MPs meeting on a Saturday in the UK is pretty exceptional – the last time they did was in 1982 for the Falklands War. The date is also important as it’s the deadline for MPs to approve a deal under the Benn Act that could allow the government to avoid having to request an extension to Article 50. As it stands, things don’t look too strong on that front, with the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, saying to the EU Parliament yesterday that the UK’s proposals were “not something we can accept”. He’ll be meeting Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay for further talks today, with PM Johnson meeting Irish PM Varadkar in Northwest England. Meanwhile, the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn tweeted overnight that Jeremy Corbyn is now ready to grant Boris Johnson a general election on Tuesday November 26.

Staying with Europe, another remarkable yield milestone was reached yesterday as Greece sold €487.5m worth of three-month bills at a negative yield of -0.02%. It feels like a long time ago now since we were talking about the country’s survival in the Euro, though Greece does still have the highest debt-to-GDP ratio of any EU country. Greek assets rallied in response, with the FTSE/Athex Banks index up +1.72%, while ten-year bonds rallied to close -2.1bps. It was a contrast to the rest of the European sovereign bond market, where 10yr bunds (+4.5bps), OATs (+4.0bps) and BTPs (+2.6bps) all sold off.

Over to the Fed, where the minutes from the September policy meeting had several interesting snippets, though nothing immediately market-moving. Per Powell’s signal on Tuesday, the minutes indicated that “participants agreed that developments in money markets (…) implied that the Committee should soon discuss the appropriate level of reserve balances.” That likely clears the way for an announcement for renewed balance sheet growth at this month’s meeting. It’s also noteworthy that Simon Potter, the ex-head of the NY Fed Markets Group and an expert on money markets, attended at least part of the meeting, despite being ousted from his position in June. Several participants also wanted to consider a standing repo facility, which could be an option at some point in the future.

Apart from the technical details, the minutes also showed that several participants wanted the committee to clarify when easing will end, which should heighten attention on the next few policy statements for any signal that the rate cutting cycle is over. The discussion of the economic outlook has already been overtaken by the incoming data, which has already deteriorated since the meeting. Several members wanted to keep rates on hold and one member called for a 50bps cut, all of which we already knew. Finally, there was some discussion regarding the Fed’s ongoing policy review, and “most participants were open to the possibility that the dual-mandate objectives of maximum employment and stable prices could be best served by strategies that deliver inflation rates that over time are, on average, equal to the Committee’s longer-run objective of 2 percent.” That suggests fairly broad support for some form of make-up strategy or price level target, which underlies our economists’ call for three more rate cuts over the next four months. Officials also discussed raising the inflation target or making the 2% target into a floor, though we don’t really envision either of these policies being implemented.

Staying with central bankers, we earlier got comments from ECB Vice President de Guindos in an MNI interview, who said that “although we can reduce interest rates further, the side effects of monetary policy are becoming more and more evident and more and more tangible.” He also said that forward guidance was the “core element of the package” last month.

There was little in the way of data yesterday, but the JOLTS survey saw job openings fall to a 17-month low in August of 7.05m. This was also the 3rd straight month that the number of job openings had fallen and reiterates that a lot of the forward indicators of employment are softening. Wholesale inventories for August were also revised down 0.2pp to 0.2% mom, which pushed down the Atlanta Fed’s nowcast model to 1.7% for Q3 growth, from 1.8%.

Looking to the day ahead, in addition to the resumption of the US-China trade talks we’ll get the ECB’s account of their September policy meeting, following which there were a number of public dissenters to the policy decisions. There’ll be a number of Fed speakers, including Daly, Bullard, Mester and Bostic. Meanwhile, data releases include August industrial production figures for France, the UK and Italy, Germany’s trade balance for August, and the August monthly GDP figures for the UK. From the US, there’ll also be September’s CPI release as well as weekly initial jobless claims.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.85 POINTS OR 0.78%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 25.12 POINTS OR 0.10%   /The Nikkei closed UP 96.60 POINTS OR 0.45%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .06%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.1185 /Oil UP TO 53.32 dollars per barrel for WTI and 58.77 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.1185 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1123 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

Despite Resurgent Optimism, SCMP Continues To Report “Deal Prospects Are Dim”

After last night’s utter chaos as algos chased headlines, this morning’s headlines from The South China Morning Post further reduce expectations for any kind of deal getting done before the Chinese leave (today or tomorrow) as despite optimism from The White House, the Chinese appear to view prospects for a deal very dimly.

Chinese diplomatic observers have played down hopes for any meaningful outcome, citing growing tensions in non-trade sectors and big differences in long-debated issues.

“The US has not changed its extensive and rigorous requests for China, nor has it responded to China’s core concerns,” Renmin University international relations professor Shi Yinhong said.

“Even if there is a deal, it could only be a mini-deal, even a minimal mini-deal. A currency pact, if true, does not bring any substance.”

Other analysts confirmed there was little hope of a breakthrough in this round of negotiations.

“Even if a deal can be reached, the US can find any excuse at any time to impose sanctions over China’s trade practices or on Chinese companies,” said Lu Xiang, a research fellow on US issues with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

“The US administration is in ‘a confusion of trivialities’ and it lacks consistency … making it hard for China to have confidence in it.

We can talk, but we are not hopeful. It would be very good if a partial deal could be reached, but a comprehensive deal as defined by the US is unlikely.”

But, as yet, traders are shrugging this off…

Maybe the machines are exhausted?

 END

Chinese Imports Of US Pork Soar To The Highest Ever As Beijing Faces Food Crisis

In a time when China is losing between a third and half of its pig herds as a result of the unprecedented decimation unleashed by African swine fever – less affectionately known as pig ebola – which has sent wholesale pork prices in China soaring to all time highs…

… and prompted local farmers to breed pigs the size of polar bears

… China is increasingly finding itself at America’s mercy.

As Bloomberg reports, as China’s hog herd is collapsing, Beijing’s imports of U.S. pork exploded to a weekly record.

According to USDA data, in the week ended Oct. 3, pig imports soared to 142,200 metric tons, more than 7 times greater than September’s total shipments of 19,900 tons.

China signaled it may import as much as 400,000 tons to stem a domestic shortfall, and it now appears that the US may be the easiest source of said pigs, which needless to say grants the US substantial leverage in the ongoing trade talks. The swine fever outbreak killed millions of pigs. The country also appeared poised to boost purchases of agriculture products as a good-will gesture before talks between Washington and Beijing on easing trade tensions.

Meanwhile, as BBG notes, volatility in hog futures in Chicago has surged to a record, spurred by speculation on exactly when Chinese demand would finally surface. The answer: right now.

The USDA data showed 123,500 tons are for shipment in 2020 with the balance set for the end of this year.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Draghi Steamrolled Over Objections From ECB’s Own Policy Committee When Restarting QE

Shortly before the release of minutes from Mario Draghi’s parting meetingthe Financial Times published a leaked report Thursday morning claiming that Mario Draghi moved ahead with plans to relaunch an “open-ended QE” version of the ECB’s APP over the objections of an influential committee inside the central bank, setting the stage for his successor, Christine Lagarde, to confront these divisions as she begins her term at the central bank’s helm.

Though the minutes stipulated that a ‘clear majority’ supported Draghi’s plan, this was one of the rare examples from the president’s five-year term where there was such strident dissent on the central bank’s governing council.

Concern was expressed that not delivering sufficient stimulus, including through the APP, might trigger a reversal of the current favourable financial conditions. By contrast, restarting net purchases would provide a strong signal of the Governing Council’s determination and willingness to act in the light of the current subdued inflation outlook and the potential risk of an unanchoring of inflation expectations.

There was clearly a strong minority that supported a deeper rate cut of 20 bp, as opposed to the 10 bp authorized as part of the central bank’s stimulus, instead of reviving a more limited and size (but unlimited in scope) APP.

A very large majority of members agreed with Mr Lane’s proposal to lower the rate on the deposit facility by 10 basis points to -0.50%, which – together with the reinforced forward guidance – would act on the whole yield curve, especially in the short to medium-term segments, complementing the effects of net asset purchases on the long end of the curve. In this way, the measure would address the high level of short-term uncertainties that currently prevailed and help preserve very favourable financial conditions. While a few members expressed a readiness to consider lowering the rate on the deposit facility by 20 basis points at the current meeting, in particular as part of a package that would exclude net asset purchases, other members felt unable to support a cut of 10 basis points, as they were concerned about the possibility of increasingly adverse side effects from additional rate cuts.

According to the  FT, the bank’s monetary policy committee, on which technocrats from the ECB and the 19 eurozone national central banks sit, advised against reviving the APP in a letter sent to Draghi and other members of the governing council in the days before the ECB meeting.

Not least of which because, as dissenters warned during the minutes, an open-ended APP could swiftly shrink the universe of eligible bonds, forcing the central bank to confront the possibility of buying more corporate bonds, or even equities.

After all, the ECB is already owns a sizable chunk of the extant euro-denominated government debt market (and duration concerns further limit what the central bank can purchase).

As the FT openly admitted, the leak of the letter’s contents is merely the beginning of a battle to pressure Lagarde into changing course.

The leaking of the confidential contents of the committee’s letter comes as opponents to Mr Draghi’s loose monetary policy fight a rearguard action to put pressure on Christine Lagarde for her to change course after she takes over at the ECB on November 1.

This is one of the few occasions where the committee’s advice wasn’t followed during the eight years since Draghi first became ECB president.

It is one of the few occasions that the committee’s advice has not been followed in the eight years since Mr Draghi became president, a council member said. However, the committee’s opinion is not binding and has been ignored at least four times in as many years by the council, which is free to decide otherwise, an ECB official said. The ECB declined to comment.

And its not the only group within the central bank that objected to restarting APP. The heads of the central banks of Germany, France, Slovenia and Estonia, among others, also objected, while the central bank’s legal committee pointed out that the ECB would need to defend itself against accusations that it was breaking bloc rules about directly financing governments via monetization.

Of course, not everybody agreed that the ECB “whistleblowers” – who joined the ranks of former central bankers warning about Draghi’s monetary insanity – were so strident in their criticism. ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn of the Bank of Finland told BBG that the FT’s report about Draghi ignoring the committee’s advice was “greatly exaggerated.”

With Draghi about to hand the reins to Lagarde, we can’t help but wonder: Will these internal objections make any difference in policy? Or will they be duly noted by Lagarde before she settles in to maintaining the status quo.

Perhaps she can find an alternative allowing her to ‘rebrand’ the APP as ‘not QE’ – just like the Fed has done.

END

Pound Rallies On Report Johnson And Varadkar Nearing Brexit Deal

So much for that ultimatum.

In an effort to win a deal with the EU27 that might have a chance of making it through the House of Commons (where Theresa May’s hated withdrawal agreement was defeated three times), Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s negotiators have proposed what Sky News described as a “pared-down free trade agreement” to hopefully end the Brexit stalemate by striking a mutually amenable deal that could be passed by the Oct. 31 ‘Brexit Day’ deadline.

Johnson has insisted that the UK will leave the EU by the Oct. 31 deadline, though MPs have already passed a law requiring the PM to request an extension if there’s no deal by Oct. 19 (following a weekend summit that’s widely seen as the last chance for both sides to strike a deal). The PM and his Irish counterpart met at Thornton Manor on the Wirral, Merseyside in Ireland on Thursday for what their offices described as a “private meeting” ahead of next week’s European Council meeting (the above-mentioned summit).

Though the latest British proposal isn’t “fully formed”, the free-trade agreement pitched by Johnson was described to Sky as a “pared down free trade agreement” that might form the foundation of a plan that could end the Brexit stalemate.

Johnson’s team is optimistic about the plan, and believes that the support of Irish PM Leo Varadkar might help convince the rest of the EU27 to come along. Several EU nations have already pledged to support an agreement if Varadkar, whose country will be most heavily impacted by Brexit, gives it his seal of approval.

Traders were convinced, and the news sent GBP soaring all the way to $1.2460, erasing all of its losses for the month of October, and then some.

Per Sky, UK negotiators have become extremely frustrated with Michel Barnier, the lead EU negotiator, claiming that his opposition to British proposals, along with his overall refusal to give any ground in the negotiations, doesn’t make sense. Johnson’s latest proposal supposedly satisfies several of the requirements that Barnier laid out in a speech last October. However, when Johnson released his plan, Barnier swiftly lambasted it as unworkable.

So they have shifted their focus to winning the support of Varadkar, whom the British believe can convince the rest of his EU27 compatriots to come along.

However, one senior Brexit reporter, ITV’s Robert Peston, warned that Johnson’s optimism might be a “ruse” to lessen the pressure from Tory backbenchers and give Johnson more room to maneuver.

Robert Peston

@Peston

I pass on, with little confidence or real understanding, that @BorisJohnson seems to believe that @LeoVaradkar and Dublin have lessened their objections of principle to his Brexit offer. Maybe both sides are moving in a signficant way. We’ll see. What I should point out…

133 people are talking about this

Robert Peston

@Peston

however is that if the negotiations were to collapse this weekend, that would be the worst timing for Johnson, because it would spur rebel Tory MPs to use SO24 next week to take control of commons business – and they would try to get a motion passed in favour of a…

19 people are talking about this

Robert Peston

@Peston

referendum on May’s gone-but-not-forgotten Brexit deal. When that flopped (as it probably would), the rebels would go for a vote of no confidence, to engineer Johnson’s removal. As I understand it, this has been their plan. However if Dublin and [tomorrow] Brussels signal a…

18 people are talking about this

Robert Peston

@Peston

deal is a genuine possibility, even the ultras among Tory rebels will feel obliged to give Johnson and his negotiators the time and space to try and conclude that deal. In other words, Johnson’s optimism and apparent readiness to adapt his offer may be real or may…

18 people are talking about this

Robert Peston

@Peston

be a ruse. Either way, the hint of an entente is perfectly timed, to limit the risk that backbench MPs take Johnson hostage before next Thursday’s EU council meeting, when EU leaders face their darkest Brexit hour and hardest Brexit decision – namely whether to close the door…

39 people are talking about this

Robert Peston

@Peston

on a Brexit offer from Johnson they hate, and trust that backbench MPs will usurp him, rescue them and prevent a no-deal Brexit. In keeping the talks going, Johnson is massively increasing the jeopardy for EU leaders.

57 people are talking about this

A Free-trade agreement would remove tariffs on goods produced by both sides, but it wouldn’t entirely eliminate the need for customs checks.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Erdogan Threatens To Flood Europe With Millions Of Syrian Refugees If It Criticizes Turkish ‘Incursion’

As fighting ramps up in northeastern Syria following Turkey’s armed incursion into territory held by the Kurds, President Trump made clear during a press conference Wednesday night that, while Washington has threatened to punish Turkey for attacking the Kurds, President Trump doesn’t feel any deeper loyalty to the one-time “tip of the spear” in the fight against ISIS.

But President Erdogan wants Europe to understand that if it pursues sanctions or other punitive measures against Turkey – or even if European leaders complain too loudly – he won’t hesitate to release millions of Syrian refugees and allow them to start making their way to Europe, which is still struggling with the ramifications of the last wave of Syrian refugees.

According to BBG, Erdogan said he would “open the doors” for 3.6 million refugees currently in Turkey to seek shelter in Europe, should his country face criticism.

Erdogan’s threat comes as Turkish troops begin their advance into northeastern Syria (Erdogan has asked European leaders not to call this an ‘invasion’). So far, he has faced intense criticism from European nations and nearby Arab states.

The Turkish lira, and Turkish assets like stocks and foreign-currency bonds, have slumped in the wake of the invasion, with the Turkish currency trading near its weakest level since August.

Ankara has said the operation, which was given the green light by the US over the weekend, is intended to force back Kurdish militants along the border area while targeting ISIS militants. But since ISIS has been stripped of all its territory in the region, many who oppose the Turkish incursion believe the claims of going after ISIS and preventing the creation of a “terror corridor” are merely a ruse.

Turkish F-16 warplanes and artillery units have struck at least 181 targets so far. At least 19 Kurdish militants have been killed since the Turkish assault began, while 38 have been wounded. Meanwhile, a group of American senators from both parties have promised to try and punish Ankara over the incursion.

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1020 UP .0037 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.87 UP 0.628 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2270   UP   0.0061  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3297 DOWN .0038 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 37 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1020 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 22.86 POINTS OR 0.78% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 25.12 POINTS OR 0.10%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,06%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 25.12 POINTS OR 0.10%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.85 POINTS OR 0.78%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 06% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 96,60  POINTS OR 0.45%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1492.40

silver:$17.43-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.64% !!! UP 6 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.14 UP 6  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 98.86 DOWN 26 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.20% up 7 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.20%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.22%//UP 8 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.96 UP 9 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 74 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.47% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.43% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1008  UP    .0024 or 8 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.88 UP  .652 OR YEN DOWN 265 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2424 UP .0213 POUND UP 213  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 44 basis points to 1.3293

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.1183   ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.1059  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8539 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.20%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 8 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.67 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.16 UP 8 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.20 DOWN 42  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 19.86  0.28%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 69.94 POINTS OR .58%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 69.91POINTS 1.27%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 112.50 POINTS or 1.25%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 150POINTS OR 0.57%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 53.94 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 59.45 12:00 EST

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.47 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  53.94//

 

 

BRENT :  59,45

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.67…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.16..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1008 ( UP 24   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.88 UP .652 (YEN DOWN 65 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.20 DOWN 42 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2424 UP 213  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8439

 

 

the Russian rouble 64.43   UP 0.02 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 2 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3292 UP 44 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  .7.1163  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 671059 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.47%

 

The Dow closed UP 150.66 POINTS OR 0.57%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 74.84 POINTS OR 0.57%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  17.57 CLOSED DOWN 1.07

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.302%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

After Overnight Chaos, Trump Trade Tweet Sparks Stock Buying-Panic

“home on Thursday”, “home on Friday”, small-deal, no-deal, mini-deal, skinny-deal, “meet with Trump on Friday” – all sent US equity markets flying overnight but when Trump talked of meeting Liu He in The Oval Office, markets got very excited.

Chinese stocks rallied overnight with the small-cap, tech-heavy indices dramatically outperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks ended higher, helped by Trump’s tweet…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Futures show the utter carnage of the overnight chop in US markets…

And in context some key technical levels…

All US Majors were higher on the day after Trump’s tweet…Trannies are back in the green for the week…

Very late on we got headlines of a deal coming BUT smaller than expected…

Odds of a (major) trade deal lifted very modestly today…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Cash equity markets chopped around their key technical levels all day…

 

Momo was very choppy today…

Source: Bloomberg

Dramatic short-squeeze at the open and again in the afternoon…

Source: Bloomberg

Global bank stocks are worth keeping an eye on…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX tumbled to a 17 handle…

Treasury yields were notably higher again on the day, rising around 7-8bps across the curve…

Source: Bloomberg

Pushing 30Y Yields back above 2.15%…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar dropped near 3-week lows today…

Source: Bloomberg

As Yuan exploded higher overnight (a 7 handle spike at one point)…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable soared on optimistic Ireland headlines…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos drifted lower today…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were mixed given the dollar weakness – oil and copper rallied, PMs were slammed…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold traded back below $1500 even as ETF holdings reach record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI rallied on chatter about extended, deeper OPEC production cuts

Source: Bloomberg

Softs sold off after WASDE forecasts (led by corn), heading for worst week since May…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, US CEOs are signaling an imminent recession…

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

Duelling US-China Trade Headlines Spark Chaotic Volatility In Futures

Update: Good luck trading this…

Dow futures have swung up and down 300-plus points four times…

 

And Yuan is even more chaotic…

Source: Bloomberg

*  *  *

And to think how blissfully stocks surged today on optimism that China was willing to pursue a partial deal…

Moments after US equity futures reopened for trading, they plunged after the SCMP reported that deputy-level trade talks between the US and China aimed at laying the groundwork for high-level negotiations later this week “failed to yield any progress on critical issues, according to two sources with knowledge of the meetings.”

According to the report, the deputy-level negotiators, led on the Chinese side by vice-minister for finance Liao Min, spent the time focusing on only two areas: agricultural purchases and intellectual property protection. This apparently was not enough.

As other newswire reported earlier, during the discussions on Monday and Tuesday in Washington, the Chinese refused to talk about forced technology transfers, one source said, which is a core US grievance regarding China’s economic policies.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, the person said that talks had also skirted the issue of state subsidies, which the Trump administration says give Chinese companies an unfair advantage over international competitors.

They have made no progress,”said another source familiar with the talks, adding that the Chinese side had not made headway in persuading US negotiators to consider a freeze on tariff increases, a main priority for Beijing.

And confirming that the week’s entire negotiation was a fiasco from the start, the SCMP reports thatthe Chinese delegation is planning to leave Washington on Thursday – one day early – and after just one day of principal-level talks, the SCMP source noted. Beijing’s negotiating team, headed by Vice-Premier Liu He, had previously planned to leave Washington late on Friday, allowing for up to two full days of talks.

Liu arrived in the US capital on Tuesday afternoon amid one of the tensest weeks for bilateral relations since the trade war began in July 2018.

It appears that this week’s NBA fiasco may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back:

Fallout from an NBA team general manager’s message of support for Hong Kong protesters has roiled public opinion on both sides. And earlier this week Washington announced sanctions against Chinese government entities, officials and companies it considers implicated in Beijing’s policies targeting largely Muslim ethnic minority groups in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region.

The Chinese government shot back, calling for an immediate reversal in the administration’s actions.

To be sure, Wednesday’s announcement that the US would block visa of various Chinese officials did not help.

In any case, with any hopes of even a modest, or mini, trade deal now seemingly collapsed, so have futures, which are puking after hours… (Dow futures -320 points)

… as is the Yuan.

Source: Bloomberg

And gold is spiking…

If confirmed, expect much more pain for a market which some have said has priced in the US-China trade deal no less than three times already.

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Stocks, Yuan, Bond Yields Spike On Trump China Tweet

It would appear the algos are alive and well after all.

President Trump tweeted that he will be meeting the China Vice Premier tomorrow:

“Big day of negotiations with China. They want to make a deal, but do I? I meet with the Vice Premier tomorrow at The White House.”

Thus, for now, confirming that Liu He is staying until Friday… and the machines like that news…

S&P broke back above key technical levels..

And yuan is rallying…

Source: Bloomberg

And bond yields are also surging…

Source: Bloomberg

END

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

“This Is The Third World”: Up To 3 Million Californians To Lose Power As PG&E Begins “Unprecedented” Blackouts

As previewed last night, PG&E Corp., California’s largest (bankrupt) utility, began shutting off power Wednesday to an unprecedented 3 million people in Northern California in the face of hot, windy weather that raises the risk of wildfires. While the high winds are forecast to subside by late Thursday, the company will undertake extensive inspections of its equipment before turning electricity back on, meaning outages could persist into next week. More than 3 million people may be eventually affected, based on city estimates and the average household size. The economic impact may reach $2.6 billion.

Half a million homes and businesses in Northern California have already lost power as PG&E orchestrates the biggest-ever intentional power shutoff to keep its lines from sparking blazes. The company was scheduled to shut service to another 234,000 customers in cities including Berkeley and Oakland at noon local time, but told city and county officials that those cutoffs will instead start Wednesday evening. Strong, dry winds that heighten the risk of wildfires are picking up later than forecast, the company said.

 

PG&E’s Wildfire Safety Operations Center in San Francisco

According to Bloomberg, never before have California utilities intentionally cut power to so many people for their own safety – and never has a shutoff affected such major metropolitan areas, even as the city of San Francisco and Silicon Valley appear spared. The undertaking is key to fairly new strategy by PG&E for preventing power lines from sparking another deadly – and costly – conflagration.

“This is unprecedented in terms of what all of us are facing as a community,” PG&E Vice President Sumeet Singh said at a media briefing Tuesday night. “We are doing everything we can to minimize the impact on our customers’ lives.”

The shutoff was scheduled to occur in three phases, eventually affecting almost 800,000 homes and businesses, including in the San Francisco Bay Area and Napa County. The next phase will include parts of Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara and Santa Cruz counties, among others. The utility will also turn off 21,800 customers in Mendocino and Calaveras counties who didn’t lose power during the first stage.

After that, PG&E will weigh a third one for the southernmost portions of its service area, affecting 42,000. In all, about 15% of the utility’s customers may go dark.

The bankrupt Pacific Gas & Electric, which announced the deliberate outage, is working to prevent a repeat of a catastrophe last November in which faulty power lines it owned were determined to have sparked California’s deadliest wildfire in modern history. California Gov. Gavin Newsom said the “frustration that Californians feel as they deal with the impacts of these power outages is warranted,” but that safety was the main concern.

“The biggest threat looks to be today and continuing into the day tomorrow,” Marc Chenard, a senior branch forecaster with the U.S. Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, said of the fire risk.

 

Power lines are seen against a smoky landscape last November near Pulga, California, east of Paradise

“Our first priority is to protect people and to ensure that communities are safe,” the governor said in a statement.

In last year’s inferno, 86 people died and a town called Paradise was virtually destroyed. PG&E has been found responsible for dozens of other wildfires in recent years, too. This is peak wildfire season in California.

With large portions of the San Francisco Bay area set to be affected – including cities such as Oakland, Berkeley and San Jose – the shutdowns are a test for a densely populated region that’s the hub of the U.S. technology industry.

“Extremely critical” fire conditions were expected in parts of Northern California Wednesday, and in Southern California around Los Angeles county Thursday, the National Weather Service said. PG&E said the severe weather incident prompting its precautionary shutoffs — hot, dry conditions and winds gusting at up to 70 mph (110 kph) — was expected to last through mid-day Thursday in northern and central California.

Near Los Angeles, Edison International’s Southern California Edison utility said it was also considering cutting power to almost 174,000 homes and businesses. Sempra Energy’s San Diego Gas & Electric warned that it could shut power to about 30,000 customers within the next two days.

 

Artist’s impression of a Los Angeles blackout

The outages already affecting regions such as the Napa Valley wine country could last up to a week in some places. There was some last minute good news: PG&E briefly put off the next round of unprecedented blackouts across Northern California for a few hours on Wednesday after weather forecasts took a turn for the better. However, they were still expected to kick in later in the day.

The turn in weather forecasts hasn’t yet changed how many customers are set to lose power according to Bloomberg. Utilities in the Los Angeles and San Diego areas were also warning of service cuts.

While the city of San Francisco is not affected by the intentional shutoff – after all the locals have to be able to see when they are about to walk into human shit – much of the surrounding Bay Area could go dark, including parts of Silicon Valley.  A prolonged outage threatens to roil the region’s economy by disrupting workers and everyday life.

“If you lose power for five hours, you may have to throw out some milk,” said Michael Wara, director of the Climate and Energy Policy Program at Stanford University. “If you lose power for five days, you need to throw anything that’s perishable away, and you are likely eating out of a can.”

Officials in Malibu — the glitzy home to Hollywood stars, which was also struck by last year’s inferno — said power company Southern California Edison had warned of another possible shutoff in areas from late Thursday through Friday.

More than 100,000 customers could lose power across eight Southern California counties, SCE said. Schools and universities closed Wednesday and people stocked up on gasoline, water, batteries and other basics.

“Early indicators are that the campus outage will last up to 48 hours,” said University of California, Berkeley, announcing all classes were canceled. The irony that this is taking place at the West Coast mecca of socialist thought was not lost on anyone.

With frustration rising, California state Sen. Jerry Hill described the mass blackouts as “excessive” in their scale.

“This cannot be something that can be acceptable nor long-term,” Hill told the Los Angeles Times. “This is third world, and we are not,” he added.

Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA in Los Angeles, tweeted that the power shutoffs were “a necessary bad idea in the short term” that shifts the financial costs from the power companies to the public.

As we reported last night, the first part of PG&E power cuts began midnight Tuesday into Wednesday in northern California. It affected more than 500,000 customers there, the utility company said.

 

An employee walks through a darkened pharmacy as downtown Sonoma, California remains without power on Oct. 9.

The rest of the San Francisco Bay area was to start losing power in waves around noon local time. A possible third phase could take place later in the day farther south.

PG&E said it expected to start turning the power back on Thursday but can only do so after inspecting its equipment for damage, which could take days in some areas.

Unfortunately for customers, PG&E won’t be able to switch the power back on once the winds stop. Crews must inspect every inch of lines to ensure they’re safe to carry electricity again. Cities have warned residents to brace for six days without power. “It’s not just a matter of, ’red flag’s over, I can turn the lights back on,”’ said Gregg Edeson, a utility consultant. “The utility really does have to go out there and look.”

The utility that supplies water to much of the East Bay has rented backup generators for its pumping stations and plants, at a cost of $400,000 for the season. But the fuel to run those generators could cost $75,000 per outage, said Andrea Pook, spokeswoman for the East Bay Municipal Utility District. And the district is still asking customers to conserve water, limiting the need for the generators.

“As an insurance policy, we’re asking customers to be mindful,” she said.

PG&E’s warnings gave residents and businesses time to prepare, said Joe Eto, a Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory staff scientist. Many companies, he said, can now have employees work remotely, conducting business through the cloud if needed. And if their own homes go dark, there are other places they can take their laptops to charge up and work.

“Never underestimate the resourcefulness of people under stress,” he said. Then again, this is California…

END

PG&E Plunges Most Since Chapter 11 Filing After Losing Bankruptcy Exclusivity

Things are getting scary for customers of California’s biggest – and bankrupt – utility, PG&E: not only is the state rolling out unprecedented blackouts which threaten to put as many as 3 million California residents in the dark, but overnight U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Dennis Montali stripped PG&E of exclusive control over its recovery process, which threatens to put the fate of the bankrupt power giant in the hands of creditors and outsiders, wiping out the stock in the process.

Immediately after Montali issued his ruling late on Wednesday, PG&E shares crashed as much as 25%. Adding insult to injury, the ruling hit just as PG&E was cutting power to hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses in Northern California in the first phase of an orchestrated shutoff designed to keep its power lines from igniting blazes. The stock reaction was a dramatic wake up call for those PCG BTFDers who were hoping that the equity would be reinstated at a sizable valuation: PCG stock plunged as much as 32%, its biggest one-day drop since the January bankruptcy filing.

The creditors, including the fire victims, have “spoken loudly and clearly that they want their” proposal to be considered, Montali said in his ruling. While PG&E’s plan is “on track as well as can be expected,” he wrote, so is the competing version from creditors. The court also denied requests by other parties to let them offer recovery plans.

Under bankruptcy law, a company has a limited amount of time to develop a reorganization plan and persuade creditors to vote in favor of it. Initially, no other competing proposals are allowed, so the bondholders needed permission from Montali before they could proceed. It’s unusual for a bankruptcy judge to grant such a request.

Montali’s decision to allow bondholders including PIMCO and Elliott Management pitch their own restructuring plan alongside PG&E’s – escalates an already-heated battle for control of the largest utility bankruptcy in U.S. history. According to bankruptcy court, the creditors can now propose their own ways for the utility to deal with an estimated $30 billion in wildfire liabilities. And since, any equity-negative decision is by definition credit-positive, some PG&E bonds soared to their highest levels in almost two years.

As Bloomberg reports, the loss of exclusivity is the latest twist in a massive bankruptcy case that has attracted some of the biggest names in the financial world.

As for the reason why the stock is crashing, it’s because the creditor group led by Pimco and Elliott – which now can propose its own vision for the company – has devised a plan that would wipe out the stake of current shareholders in the utility.

“In the worst case, the competing plan could win and completely wipe out current shareholders,” Greg Gordon, an analyst at Evercore ISI, said in a research note. “In other words, zero is possible.”

Whether shareholders will actually suffer a total wipeout is open to question, because Montali’s ruling doesn’t shut down PG&E’s effort or necessarily favor its rivals.

A shocked PG&E, which is now facing a very uncertain future, issued a statement saying that “we are disappointed that the Bankruptcy Court has opened the door to consideration of a plan designed to unjustly enrich Elliott and the other ad hoc bondholders and seize control of PG&E at a substantial discount.” The company had argued that ending its exclusive control before the company figures out its exact wildfire liabilities would “lead to further distraction, costs and waste” and would jeopardize the company’s chances of exiting bankruptcy by June 2020, a deadline set by the state.

Translation: the world will end if the company’s equityholders are wiped out and the existing management team is shown the door… a typical response.

“It’s a big deal, because now the shape of the reorganization is no longer in existing management’s hands,” said Stephen Lubben of the Seton Hall University School of Law. “Whoever can persuade a critical mass of creditors, along with the regulators, that they have a good way forward will win. That could result in a very different plan than management envisioned when they went into Chapter 11.”

PG&E filed for bankruptcy on Jan. 29 to address liabilities resulting from a series of devastating fires that tore through Northern California in 2017 and 2018. The effects have been rippling through millions of ratepayers, hundreds of creditors, thousands of workers and the state’s political system.

“One plan emerging as confirmable is a very acceptable outcome,” Montali wrote. “And if both plans pass muster, the voters will make their choice or leave the court with the task of picking one of them.” He directed the noteholders to file their plan by Oct. 17.

It’s not the first time the company faced such a dilemma. PG&E’s utility unit filed for bankruptcy in 2001, and in that case, creditors were paid in full and shareholders kept considerable value. This time, however, as a result of mounting legal liabilities, the chances the equity preserves some value are far lower, although as always in a case like this, political considerations come into play.

Regulators and creditors might want to maintain a capital structure of at least 50% equity that’s typical for a utility, which would help PG&E sell new shares and debt. Political and public relations considerations could also emerge if pension funds, workers and individual shareholders with sympathetic stories weigh in.

“This would be devastating for my retirement,” shareholder Andreas Krebs of San Francisco wrote to the judge a day before the ruling. “Please consider the average person that has invested their hard-earned retirement money into PG&E. I don’t even know how to address the greed and gall of these creditors that would want to wipe out average people’s savings in order to profit by taking over PG&E.”

Here’s a thought: perhaps the average person should not have invested their entire nest egg in a terribly run, massively overlevered organization. Then again, in a world in which everyone expects to be bailed out, can anyone blame Andreas for trying?

Debt Market Suffering “Quiet Meltdown” As Billions In Loans Are Suddenly Crashing

The exponential growth in the leveraged loan market, in the last several years, created an enormous excess accumulation of sub-investment grade loans that are a ticking time bomb when the next recession strikes.

Late last year, leveraged loan markets froze, for at least a month, as Treasury yields dropped, due to the increasing threat of a global recession. An abundance of fake trade news and central bank easing throughout 2019 saved Wall Street and reopened the leveraged loan market earlier in the year, but it seems that cracks are starting to develop again with recession threats building for 2020.

Bloomberg reports that 50 companies that have at least $40 billion of loans have lost about ten percentage points of face value in the last three months.

An exodus of investors has been seen in the leveraged loan market late-summer into early fall as liquidity dries up. It’s mostly due to Treasury yields sinking, and end of cycle fears increasing, as a recession could emerge next year.

Some of the hardest-hit companies in the loan space in the last three months have been Amneal Pharmaceuticals, whose $2.7 billion loan due 2025 plunged about 80 cents on the dollar, and Seadrill Operating whose $2.6 billion loan maturing in 2021 only commands 53 cents on the dollar, said Bloomberg.

In terms of losses, Bloomberg data shows Deluxe Entertainment Services Group has seen more than $600 million wiped out in its first lien loan that dropped 77 cents in the last three months to 12.5 cents.

Although $40 billion is a blip versus the $1.2 trillion leveraged loan market, it indeed points to a quiet meltdown developing.

“People want the well-performing loans, and are more wary of taking chances on the situations that have turned negative,” said Andrew Sveen, co-director of loans at Eaton Vance Management.

One of the hardest-hit sectors in the loan market is energy, with $12 billion of loans falling more than ten cents on the dollar. Consumer and health care sectors are next, with collectively $13 billion in loans outstanding that are starting to become distressed.

The deterioration of underwriting standards in the loan market has allowed companies who are susceptible to credit downgrades when the economy slows to obtain loans.

But that ‘ease of underwriting’ is a two-edged sword as the current weakness, prompting downgrades, will force managers to sell loans into already illiquid markets, since their portfolios (or CLOs in many cases) can’t hold these investments because of certain rating thresholds.

The leveraged loan market is therefore comparable to the subprime mortgage market a decade ago. It’s a significant imbalance that will be corrected in the next recession and will amplify the next downturn.

With cracks developing in the loan space, the current meltdown is going unrecognized by most of Wall Street (which didn’t end well in 2008 or 2015 for stocks).

The accumulation of excessive leverage and high exposure to loans of non-financial companies adds to the uncertainties that corporate America, as highly leveraged as it is, could see an epic implosion as the next recession could arrive as early as 2020.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Inside Hunter Biden’s Dealings With Shadowy Foreign Firms

Hunter Biden is the ultimate fail-son, or black sheep.

For those who are unfamiliar with the term, it has emerged in recent years to describe the spoiled, sloppy and clumsily power-hungry offspring of powerful individuals. Hunter Biden is more infamous for his often drug-fueled antics, and the brief and embarrassingly public romance he shared with his deceased brother’s widow, than he is for being a successful businessman. But now his business career has been exposed for what it truly is: Foreign players hoping to use the younger Biden as a backdoor connection to the White House, and the American political elite.

Often, Biden dropped hints about how these connections could be useful, though there’s not much of a record of him actually using his connections (that is, actually being useful) on his employer’s behalf (which doesn’t mean it didn’t happen).

According to the FTBiden’s business interests “often show up in unexpected places.” While Democrats obviously prefer to focus on their impeachment investigation, there’s no denying that Biden’s business dealings in Ukraine, China and elsewhere clearly raise questions about potential conflicts that existed while his father was in office. Joe Biden has denied wrongdoing, but questions linger over his role in the ouster of a top Ukrainian prosecutor, which some have suggested was done to help protect Hunter.

When Hunter joined the Navy Reserves in May 2013, he required several waivers (at 42, he was above the age of enlistment, and there was an unspecified ‘drug-related’ incident that also would have disqualified him).

Despite his apparent eagerness to join, Biden was discharged from the Navy the following year after testing positive for cocaine. Soon after, his more successful older brother, Beau, passed away, and his wife Kathleen filed for divorce, citing Hunter’s “spending extravagantly on his own interests including drugs, alcohol, prostitutes, strip clubs and gifts for women with whom he has sexual relations.”

Next, he started dating his brother’s widow.

But in between trips to rehab and legendary drug benders. In 2016, shortly after he started dating Hallie Biden, Beau’s widow, Hunter made plans to stay at a detox center in Arizona. But he somehow got sidetracked during a stopover in Los Angeles, and ended up missing the next wing of his flight. Instead, he traveled to Skid Row, where he was reportedly held up at gun point, but nevertheless apparently succeeded in buying and using crack, causing him to return several times over the following days. Eventually, Hunter Biden took a Hertz rental car to his treatment center in Arizona, but workers at the Hertz office called the police after finding a crack pipe and baggie of crack, along with Biden’s license and a badge from Beau’s time as Delaware AG.

Prosecutors declined to pursue the case, claiming a lack of evidence, but it definitely wasn’t a good look for Hunter. More recently, Hunter has been in the headlines for his whirlwind marriage to a South African Instagram model, and for a paternity suit brought by a woman claiming Hunter is the father of her newborn son.

Of course, none of these transgressions have stopped Biden from earning millions of dollars off his family name and connections. In Wednesday’s issue, the FT published a breakdown of Biden’s foreign business interests.

Burisma Holdings:

Role: Board member (2014-2019)

Pay: $50,000 a month.

Burisma, Ukraine’s leading privately owned natural gas producer, obtained some of its most prized production assets while its founder Mykola Zlochevsky headed a ministry that doled out gas licences under the kleptocratic administration of ex-president Viktor Yanukovich. After Mr Yanukovich fled to Russia in 2014, investigators started probing the company.

That year Burisma appointed prominent westerners to its board, including Hunter Biden, who reportedly earned $50,000 per month for this role. Mr Trump’s calls for his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate Burisma over links to Joe Biden, his potential Democratic rival in next year’s presidential election, triggered the impeachment probe.

In tweets and in a July phone call with Mr Zelensky, Mr Trump and Rudy Giuliani, his personal lawyer, alleged that Joe Biden protected Burisma and his son’s interests while he was vice-president. Ukraine’s western backers deny this narrative.

Paradigm Companies

Role: investor and employee

Pay: $1.2 million salary

In 2006, Hunter Biden acquired a stake in Paradigm, a hedge fund group, following a failed attempt to buy the entire company through LBB, a limited liability partnership set up with his uncle James Biden. Hunter Biden recently told the New Yorker that, while the failed deal sounded “super attractive”, it fell apart after he and his uncle learned that the company was worth less than they had thought.

Both James and Hunter Biden faced a lawsuit from Anthony Lotito Jr, a former business partner, who accused them of defrauding him over the failed deal. The Bidens countersued Mr Lotito, accusing him of hiding company debts and falsely claiming he held securities licences. An independent audit of the fund conducted in 2008 found accounting problems at the firm including “failure to timely prepare financial statements” and “failure to reconcile Investment Advisors reimbursement of fund expenses”.

Paradigm itself was founded by James Park in 1991, the son-in-law of one of the founder’s of the Korean Unification Church, which some have called a cult. In 2009, a fund run by Paradigm became associated with Allen Stanford, a Texas financier, who was later convicted of running an $8bn Ponzi scheme. Stanford’s company was responsible for marketing one of Paradigm’s funds of hedge funds, and also invested millions of dollars in it. At the time, a lawyer representing Paradigm said neither Hunter nor James Biden had ever met Stanford.

The Bidens filed for voluntary liquidation of the company in 2010.

Seneca Global Advisors

Role: Founder, consultant

Pay: n/a

Hunter Biden launched his consultancy in September 2008, weeks after his father Joe Biden had been announced as Barack Obama’s running mate on the Democratic presidential ticket. Mr Obama was elected president in November 2008, with Joe Biden as his vice-president.

The consultancy pitched itself as a firm that could help small and midsized companies expand across the US and into foreign markets. Clients included Achaogen, a pharmaceutical company focused on anti-bacterial treatments that filed for bankruptcy in April 2019, and GreatPoint Energy, an energy technology start-up.

In 2012, GreatPoint received a $420m investment from China Wanxiang Holdings, an industrial conglomerate. It was the largest venture capital investment into the US that year. It is unclear if Hunter Biden was directly involved in securing this investment.

Rosemont Seneca Partners

Role: Co-founder, consultant

Pay: n/a

Hunter Biden co-founded Rosemont Seneca Partners in 2009 with Christopher Heinz, stepson of John Kerry, the former secretary of state, and scion of the Heinz processed food fortune, and Devon Archer, a financier and former Abercrombie & Fitch model who attended Yale with Mr Heinz.

In 2014, Rosemont Seneca was involved in an attempted $1.5bn fundraise for a new fund launched by Harvest Fund Management and Bohai Industrial Group, the Chinese asset manager, according to a Wall Street Journal report at the time. The Bank of China International Holdings was one of the biggest stakeholders in Bohai at the time.

Mr Archer first connected with Mykola Zlochevsky, co-founder of the Ukrainian gas company Burisma, in 2014 when he travelled there to pitch a Rosemont-linked real estate fund that he managed. Mr Archer joined Burisma’s board in 2014. Hunter joined soon after.

BHR Partners

Role: Director, consultant, 2013-today

Pay: n/a

BHR Partners, of which Hunter remains a director, is a private investment fund backed by some of China’s largest state banks, local government and the national pension fund.

At its inception in 2014, BHR listed Rosemont Seneca Thornton LLC, an investment firm co-founded by Hunter Biden, as a shareholder that owned 30% of the fund.

A year later, the two partners in RST, a consortium of Rosemont Seneca and Thornton Group, a Massachusetts-based firm with local political ties, split their shares in BHR. Rosemont Seneca took 20% and Thornton 10%. Rosemont Seneca unloaded its BHR stakes in 2017, while Thornton kept its shares.

BHR is known for being an early investor in some of the fastest-growing technology start-ups, including Didi Chuxing, the digital transport group. It has also invested in Megvii, a facial recognition start-up whose technology has been used in Chinese government surveillance of Uighur populations in China’s western provinces.

Li Xiangsheng, CEO of BHR, told local media that the fund’s strong government background would allow it to make super-big investments, saying the fund could take loans from its shareholders such as China Development Bank and Bank of China to complete transactions.

Hunter Biden’s investment in the fund totalled $420,000, according to one of his lawyers, implying the fund’s total value sits at $4.2m. The New Yorker reported in July that Hunter and his partners said they had not yet received a payment from BHR.

BHR Portfolio Companies (per FT):

Didi Chuxing:

Cashed out. China’s largest ride-hailing service. BHR invested in Didi in 2015 and exited two years later.

Megvii

Current. Leading facial recognition company whose technology was linked to Beijing’s mass surveillance of Uighurs in Xinjiang. BHR was an investor in Megvii’s Series C funding round in 2017.

Sinopec Petroleum Sales

Current. Retail unit of one of world’s largest oil refiners. Sinopec participated in China’s mixed ownership reform of the state sector by selling shares in its retail business in 2014 to an investor group that includes BHR. The fund paid Rmb6bn for a 1.7% stake.

Yancoal Australia

Current. Australian subsidiary of China’s third-largest coal producer. BHR teamed up with two Chinese banks in 2016 to purchase a nine-year bond issued by Yancoal Australia and valued at $950m.

CGN Power Group

Current. Major nuclear power company that was placed under US export blacklist in August over accusations of stealing US technology for military use. BHR was a cornerstone investor in CGN’s Hong Kong IPO in 2014.

Tuniu

Current. Major online travel agency. BHR invested in Tuniu in 2016.

Contemporary Amperex Technology

Current. World’s largest lithium-ion battery maker. BHR invested Rmb100m in CAT in 2015 and cashed out for Rmb197m three years later.

3SBio

Current. Leading Chinese biopharmaceutical firm in which BHR has invested.

Tenke Copper Mine

Cashed out. BHR paid $1.1bn for a 24% stake in DRC’s Tenke copper mine, one of the world’s largest, from Canada-based Lundin Mining. BHR acted as middleman in the deal, as it later sold its stake to China Molybdenum, a state-backed miner, allowing the latter to gain full control of Tenke.

Henniges Automotive

Current. In 2015, BHR teamed up with Chinese state-owned Avic Auto to acquire Michigan-based Henniges Automotive, which makes auto components. The deal, valued at $600m, gave BHR a 49% stake in Henniges. A research institute under Avic Auto’s parent company, China’s largest defence contractor, was added to the US export blacklist in 2014.

Gemini-Rosemont Realty

Current. In 2015, Gemini Investments Limited, the investment arm of China’s state-owned Sino-Ocean Land Holdings, purchased a 75 per cent stake in Rosemont Realty, Devon Archer’s sister company of Rosemont Seneca, where Hunter Biden was a partner. The deal resulted in a joint venture — Gemini-Rosemont Realty that owns 135 buildings in 22 US states.

Jilin Zhishi Dairy Co

Current. BHR-invested dairy product maker based in northeastern China.

Chengdu Xijiao Rail Transportation Technology Co   

Current. Leading railway technology firm in which BHR has a 10% stake.

Source: Financial Times

END

Pelosi Faces Tough Decision On Formal Impeachment Vote As Case Against Trump Comes Under Pressure

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is in a tough spot. After caving in to pressure from her party to launch an impeachment inquiry based on a CIA ‘whistleblower’ report that Trump abused his office to pressure Ukraine into investigating 2020 rival Joe Biden, Pelosi must now decide on whether to proceed with a formal vote amid mounting evidence that Trump did nothing wrong. 

Trump has pushed for a vote – which would allow Republicans to issue subpoenas, as well as grant the White House the ability to cross-examine witnesses. To that end, the White House outlined in a Tuesday letter that they will refuse to cooperate with an inquiry that is “invalid” due to Pelosi’s refusal to make it official.

“Never before in our history has the House of Representatives — under the control of either political party — taken the American people down the dangerous path you seem determined to pursue,” wrote White House counsel Pat Cipollone.

Kevin McCarthy

@GOPLeader

Think about if you went through a trial, but you weren’t allowed to call any witnesses. That’s what Speaker Pelosi is doing to President Trump right now.

This entire process is a sham.

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32.1K people are talking about this

When asked on Wednesday if he would cooperate with Pelosi’s impeachment inquiry, Trump told reporters “we would if they give us our rights, it depends.”

Pelosi, meanwhile, says the effort to force a vote is nothing more than a “Republican talking point.”

“If we want to do it, we’ll do it. If we don’t, we don’t. But we’re certainly not going to do it because of the president,” said Pelosi in an interview last week with the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

A decision whether to call the president’s bluff is likely to be a main topic when Pelosi convenes a conference call with House Democrats at the end of the week. Representative Dan Kildee of Michigan, one of the leadership’s vote counters, said Democrats could easily pass a resolution authorizing the impeachment inquiry with as many as 230 votes.

With the White House vowing to block any cooperation, Pelosi is scheduled to hold the conference call on Friday to chart the next steps. The committees conducting the investigation have already issued a salvo of subpoenas for testimony or records directed at administration officials such as Secretary of State Michael Pompeo as well as Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani. –Bloomberg

“We continue investigating and digging to uncover more of the truth. Nothing has changed,” said Pelosi spokeswoman Ashley Etienne on Wednesday, adding that Democrats have yet to settle on legal or tactical responses to the White House letter.

Pushback

House Republicans led by Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California have been “using ads, press releases and other efforts to hammer Democratic House members from GOP-leaning districts over impeachment,” according to Bloomberg.

Trump and Republicans also have complained about the fairness of the process, citing closed-door hearings, and what they say are limitations by committee Republicans to subpoena their own rebuttal witnesses, or for the White House to have legal counsel in the room during depositions. –Bloomberg

According to Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH): “If Democrats were interested in fairness, they would follow the same process as previous impeachment proceedings. Instead, they just make up the rules as they go along.

Quid Pro Nope

The House impeachment inquiry was launched after a CIA officer reported that President Trump pressured Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky to investigate Joe Biden and his son Hunter for alleged corruption.

After Democrats uncritically launched their impeachment inquiry based on the initial whistleblower report, the White House upset their strategy – releasing a transcript of the call between Zelensky and Trump and the whistleblower complaint itself – plain readings of which reveal that Trump did not threaten, pressure or suggest a quid pro quo in exchange for a Biden investigation. Furthermore, Zelensky himself has said as much.

So as the case against Trump continues to unravel, Pelosi and the Democrats have some tough decisions to make as we head into the 2020 election.

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

The greater fools that bought stuff on the China-US trade deal hype got clowned, again.

US and China make no progress on key trade issues in two days of deputy-level talks, sources say

  • The Chinese delegation refuses to talk about forced technology transfers, a core US grievance in the negotiations, a person with knowledge of the meetings says
  • High-level talks are expected to last for only one day, with Liu He and his team now planning to leave Washington on Thursday

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3032261/us-and-china-make-no-progress-key-trade-issues-two-days-deputy

Burisma Holdings Paid Joe Biden $900,000 for Lobbying Activities: Ukrainian MP

Derkach publicized the documents at a press conference at the Interfax-Ukraine agency Wednesday as he said the records, “describe the mechanism of getting money by Biden Sr.”  “This was the transfer of Burisma Group’s funds for lobbying activities, as investigators believe, personally to Joe Biden through a lobbying company. Funds in the amount of $900,000 were transferred to the U.S.-based company Rosemont Seneca Partners, which according to open sources, in particular, the New York Times, is affiliated with Biden. The payment reference was payment for consultative services,” Derkach said…

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/10/burisma-holdings-paid-joe-biden-900000-for-lobbying-activities-ukrainian-mp/

Maria Bartiromo said she is hearing the IG Report will “be out on October 18 and it’s about as thick as a telephone book and goes beyond FISA abuses…”   https://twitter.com/michaelbeatty3/status/1181896183603593217

 

James Comey was ‘troubled’ by Loretta Lynch’s ‘pro-Clinton bias,’ book claims

Comey was “nagged in his distrust of Lynch’s impartiality” after he received a report from a “highly placed informant” in March 2016 suggesting the AG was trying to nix the investigation, reporter James B. Stewart claims in his new book “Deep State: Trump, the FBI and the Rule of Law,” released Tuesday.

    The document contained an email that Deborah Wasserman Schultz, then-chair of the Democratic National Committee, reportedly sent to an executive at Open Society Foundations, founded by billionaire Democratic donor George Soros, Stewart wrote.  The email assured executive Leonard Benardo that “Lynch wouldn’t let the Clinton investigation get very far, suggesting that Lynch would protect Clinton.”… https://nypost.com/2019/10/08/james-comey-was-troubled-by-loretta-lynchs-pro-clinton-bias-book-claims/

 

FBI lover Lisa Page LIED about her affair with Peter Strzok, new book reveals, which also tells how ‘biased’ Loretta Lynch stopped a special counsel taking over Hillary Clinton email probe

  • Another revelation is former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein had the support of two cabinet colleagues for invoking the 25th Amendment to remove Trump from office
  • Stewart claims former Chief of Staff John Kelly and former Attorney General Jeff Sessions said they might back it

    Stewart also reveals that former FBI director James Comey had deep concerns about the impartiality of former Attorney General Loretta Lynch.  When it came to the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server, Comey considered asking for her to appoint a Special Counsel because he was so alarmed – but she rebuffed him…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7550157/FBI-lover-Lisa-Page-LIED-confronted-affair-Peter-Strzok.html

 

Rod Rosenstein “Unindicted Co-Conspirator”? – Durham Expands Timeline for Probe…

The reason Rosenstein’s behavior remains a high-priority is simply because without his ongoing participation and authorization in 2017 and 2018 the Weissmann/Mueller probe would not have been able to continue… There are four central actions taken by DAG Rod Rosenstein that frame the four corners of his active involvement within the “small group” coup effort…

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/10/09/rod-rosenstein-unindicted-co-conspirator-durham-expands-timeline-for-probe/

 

Did Mueller lie to Congress about meeting with Trump before he took the special counsel job?

It seems increasingly clear that Trump was being set-up, and that Mueller was neither forthcoming nor honest during the meeting.

     It has always been suspicious that Robert Mueller met with President Trump in the Oval Office the day before he was officially appointed by Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to investigate Trump.

    Newly uncovered documents show that Mueller and Rosenstein had been privately communicating in the days before that meeting. They worked sedulously to keep it a secret. Trump had no idea that Mueller was already on board to serve as special counsel…

    President Trump: “Mueller wanted very badly to have the job as FBI director and to return to the FBI. I didn’t want him. I rejected him. By the way, how much of a conflict is it when a guy comes in wanting a job, I say no, and the next day he’s your special prosecutor? It’s outrageous.”… The president’s account of his meeting with Mueller was corroborated by his then-assistant, Madeleine Westerhout, who arranged it and was privy to its purpose and content… multiple administration officials backed up this account…

    So, has Mueller been lying about this all along? Consider his July 24, 2019 testimony before congress:

Mueller: “My understanding was I was not applying for the job.  I was asked to give my input on what it would take to do the job.  Question: So it is your statement that you didn’t interview to apply for the FBI director job?  Mueller: That’s correct.”… Under questioning from Congress, Mueller was directly asked whether the president discussed with him the firing of Comey.  The special counsel replied, “Cannot remember.” Right… More likely, the special counsel knew his disqualifying conflict of interest had been exposed and sought to deflect it by claiming total memory lapse…

    My colleague Catherine Herridge has reported there is new scrutiny [by Durham] of the Mueller appointment and the coordination between Rosenstein and Mueller in the days before he was named special counsel.  As Trump told me, “Bob Mueller should never have been allowed to do this case.”  The evidence continues to mount that the president was right.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/gregg-jarrett-mueller-congress-trump-special-counsel

 

@1776Stonewall: You think about how many bs process crimes that the Mueller investigation handed out, and yet Robert Mueller himself has now been caught lying under oath, as multiple emails prove. Just another example of how crooked this entire thing is. Doubt the media will even report it

 

Anti-Trump Whistleblower Attorney Worked Directly For James Clapper

Charles McCullough, an attorney now representing the whistleblowers with Andrew Bakaj, a former staffer for Sens. Chuck Schumer and Hillary Clinton, was previously the inspector general of the intelligence community (ICIG) at the height of the Clinton email scandal

https://thefederalist.com/2019/10/09/anti-trump-whistleblower-attorney-worked-directly-for-james-clapper/#.XZ3go4W3WSs.twitter

 

Solomon: Document reveals Ukraine had already reopened probe of Hunter Biden-linked firm months before Trump phone call – “The U.S. government had open-source intelligence and was aware as early as February of 2019 that the Ukrainian government was planning to reopen the Burisma investigation,” he claimed. “This is long before the president ever imagined having a call with President Zelensky,” he added, noting Petro Poroshenko was still Ukraine’s president at that time…

     “That is a significant change in the timeline — it was omitted from the whistleblower’s complaint, and the question is did he not know it or did he exclude it because it didn’t fit the narrative he was trying to write,” he continued. “That’s a question for Congress to answer.”

https://www.foxnews.com/media/john-solomon-says-new-hunter-biden-related-doc-shows-significant-shift-in-factual-timeline

 

Solomon also said bank records from Burisma, acquired through FBI raids, reveal that Hunter Biden was paid between $166,000 & $200,000 per month, not the reported $50,000.

 

Sen. Cotton Demands Answers from Intelligence Community IG

Senator Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas) today sent a letter to Michael Atkinson, Inspector General of the Intelligence Community, after his evasive testimony before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence during a closed hearing on September 26. Inspector General Atkinson repeatedly refused to answer questions about the political bias of the “whistleblower”, despite being in a closed session and despite this information being unclassified. The Inspector General wouldn’t reveal this information to the Senate Intelligence Committee, but later revealed it to the House Intelligence Committee

https://www.cotton.senate.gov/?p=press_release&id=1232

 

Defense Intelligence Agency employee charged with leaking classified information to journalists

Henry Kyle Frese, a counterterrorism analyst, is accused in federal court in Alexandria, Va., of providing classified material to two journalists in 2018 and 2019. One report related to a foreign country’s weapon systems, court papers state.  A Justice Department statement said Frese, 30, “was caught red-handed disclosing sensitive national security information.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/national/wp/2019/10/09/defense-intelligence-agency-employee-charged-with-leaking-classified-information-to-journalists/?wpisrc=al_news__alert-national&wpmk=1

 

@MatthewKeysLive: Court records say Henry K. Frese was following on Twitter the journalist he gave classified info to and was romantically involved with. I identified the reporter as CNBC journalist @amanda_m_macias earlier today; info on their accounts checks out.

 

@seanmdav: The DIA official who was arrested for allegedly leaking top secret intelligence to two journalists previously mocked Donald Trump for not understanding “OPSEC”, or operations security.

 

Fox News’ Tucker Carlson: “During the 2004 election, which he lost, John Kerry openly bragged about soliciting support from foreign leaders against his opponent that year, the incumbent President George W. Bush”     https://twitter.com/RealSaavedra/status/1181777991489032193

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

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