OCT 11//RAID AGAIN IN GOLD AND SILVER: GOLD DOWN $12.90 TO 1485.00//SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TI $17.50//SUPPOSED PARTIAL TRADE DEAL WITH CHINA IMPETUS FOR GOLD’S DROP//COMEX DATA COMPLETE//CURRENCY AND CLOSING BOURSES PROVIDED//

GOLD:$1497.90 DOWN $12.90(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:17.50 DOWN 6 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1489.10

 

silver:  $17.55

I

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 0/25

____________________________________________________________________________________________

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT: 25 NOTICE(S) FOR 2500 OZ (0.0777 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  10,732 NOTICES FOR 1,0732,000 OZ  (33.381 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR 0CT

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 925 for 4,625,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

 

 

 

 

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 9870 UP 109 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 10640 UP 823

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE  SIZED 2053 CONTRACTS FROM 212,092 DOWN TO 210,039 WITH THE STRONG 22 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR SEPT 0,; DEC  877 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  877 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 877 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 877 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 4.385 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 22 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

6.20     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

 

YESTERDAY, ANOTHER MAJOR ATTEMPT BY THE BANKERS TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL AT THE SILVER COMEX AS ANOTHER RAID WAS INITIATED.  OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR//BANKERS AGAIN USED HUGE COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN THEIR SUCCESSFUL ENDEAVOUR TO WHACK SILVER’S PRICE (22 CENTS LOWER). TODAY WE LOST A SMALL NUMBER OF CONTRACTS ON BOTH EXCHANGES OF 1176 CONTRACTS WITH THE BANKERS TRYING TO LIGHTEN THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITION

 

 

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF OCT

10,894 CONTRACTS (FOR 9TRADING DAYS TOTAL 10,894 CONTRACTS) OR 54.47 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1210 CONTRACTS OR 6.05 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  54.47 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 7.78% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1694.26   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2053, WITH THE 22 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 877 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE LOST A SMALL  SIZED: 1176 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 877 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 2053  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS LACK OF  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 22 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.56 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.050 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 150% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 2 NOTICE(S) FOR 10,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 6.20 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 5222 CONTRACTS, TO 614,755 ACCOMPANYING THE $10.00 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// /

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 11,552 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  11552 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 614,755,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED  IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6,330 CONTRACTS: 5222 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 11,552 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 6,330 CONTRACTS OR 633,000 OZ OR 19.689 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A LOSS OF $10.00 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 19.689  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON AS ANOTHER RAID WAS INITIATED. THE BANKERS WERE VERY SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE  BUT UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS BOTH EXCHANGES SHOWED A SIZEABLE GAIN IN CONTRACTS,

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT : 43,033 CONTRACTS OR 4,303,300 oz OR 133.85 TONNES (9 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 4781 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 133.85 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 133.85/3550 x 100% TONNES =3.77% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4797.55  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 5222 DESPITE THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($10.00) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 11,522 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 11,522 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6330 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

11,522 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 5222 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 19.689 TONNES). ..AND THIS STRONG INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $10.00 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  25 notice(s) filed upon for 2500 oz of gold at the comex.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71  TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY:

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2053 CONTRACTS from 212,092 DOWN TO 210,039 AND FURTHER FROM  A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR OCT. 0; FOR DEC  877  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 877 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2053  CONTRACTS TO THE 877 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 1176 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5.88 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 6.20 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 22 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED 877 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 30.52 POINTS OR 1.04%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 131.51 POINTS OR 0.46%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 422.94 POINTS OR 1.97%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .42%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8807 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8807 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8834 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 5222 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 614,755 ACCOMPANYING THE LOSS OF $10.00 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 11,552 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR SEPT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 11552   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  11552 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 6330 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 11,552 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A STRONG SIZED 5222 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE AS IT FELL BY $10.00. HOWEVER, JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY UNSUSPECTING LONGS. THE RAID THIS MORNING  WAS ANOTHER ATTEMPT TO FORCE LONGS TO LEAVE THE GOLD ARENA

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  6330 CONTRACTS OR 633000 OZ OR 19.689 TONNES.

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER.  This month is generally the poorest delivery month of the year as must players prefer to go straight to the big active delivery month of December. Strangely October will turn out to be a huge delivery month. Today we have 246 contracts still standing for a LOSS of 47 contracts. Yesterday we had 75 notices served upon so we despite the raid yesterday and today, we have a gain of 28 contracts or an additional 2800 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. We again have queue jumping by the bankers in their attempt to find physical metal.

 

The next active delivery month after October is the non active contract month of November. Here we saw a GAIN of 33 contracts and thus the OI INCREASED to 1071  The very big December contract month saw its oi FALL by 6613 contracts DOWN to 477,405.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 25 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  2500 OZ. (0.077TONNES)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2053 CONTRACTS FROM 212,092 DOWN TO 210,039 (AND FURTHER FROM A NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A 22 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER.  HERE WE HAVE 337 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF ONLY 2 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 2 CONTACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE LOST 0 CONTRACTS OR NIL ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH.  THEY REFUSED TO MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

AFTER OCTOBER WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND HERE  WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 8 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 478. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI FALLS BY 3060 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 156,739.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 2 notice(s) filed for 10,000, OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 464,347  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  431,271  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

OCT 11/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 201.07 oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
25 notice(s)
 2500 OZ
(0.0777 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
221 contracts
(22100 oz)
0.6874 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
10,732 notices
1,073,200 OZ
33.381TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into Delaware: 201.07  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 201.07  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ a tiny amount  arrived   today

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

FOR THE OCT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 25 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,732) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT. (246 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (25 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,091,500 OZ OR 33.95 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of OCT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (10707 x 100 oz)  + (293)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (75 x 100 oz )which equals 1,095,300 oz standing OR 34.068 TONNES in this  active delivery month of OCT.

We gained a strong 28 contracts OR 2800 ADDITIONAL OZ which queue jumped as our bankers //official sector were searching for badly needed physical

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 3 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

AND NOW……………………………………………………………………………     OCT. 34.068 TONNES

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT IN SEPT 2 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.6 TONNES.

IF WE ADD THE THREE DELIVERY MONTHS: 66.66

TONNES- 2.60 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 64.06 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1,147,640.808 oz or  35.696 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,188,292.958 oz 254.69 tonnes

IN THE LAST 35 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
OCT 11 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 301,895.740 oz
CNT
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,134,863.019 oz
CNT
Delaware
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(10,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
335 contracts
 1,675,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  925 contracts

4,625,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  3 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into CNT:  597,997.600 oz

iii) Into Delaware: 7053.119 oz

iv) Into Scotia: 529,812.300 oz

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  1134,863.019  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT:  1013.07 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 300,582.67 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 301,895.740  oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

i) Out of CNT: 517,608.700 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of CNT and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

 

total dealer silver:  93.110 million

total dealer + customer silver:  307.104 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the OCT 2019. contract month is represented by 2 contract(s) FOR 10,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 925 x 5,000 oz = 4,625,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (337) and the number of notices served upon today 2 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 925 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (337)- number of notices served upon today (2x 5000 oz equals 6,310,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month. 

WE  LOST 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz of silver will stand at the comex as they guys refused to morph into london based forwards. For the past several weeks we have been witnessing queue jumping in both gold and silver.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 2 notice(s) filed for 10,000 OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  99.883 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 98,062 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 98,062 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 490 million  OZ 71.04% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.50% ((SEPT 30/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.06% to NAV (SEPT 30/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.50%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.66 TRADING 14.17///DISCOUNT 3.34

 

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 TODAY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.00 TODAY, A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921,71 TONNES

OCT.9//WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT 8\WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

0CT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN 7 DOLLARS//A BIG CHANGE //A DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES//

INVENTORY RISES TO 923.76 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $15.25 A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 920.83 TONNES

SEPT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $32.50: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.88 TONNES

SEPT 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 26//WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90 A HUGE  PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  16.42 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

 

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.65 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN OUT OF THIS WORLD DEPOSIT OF 14.37 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 10.65 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 ON THE DAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.06 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 16/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A BIG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 12//WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A HUGE 7.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.15 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

OCT 11/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 921.71 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 678 TRADING DAYS: 27.94 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 578 TRADING DAYS: A NET 139.20 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ//

OCT 10/2016//WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.443 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 166,000 OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 1.2019 //WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.87 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.656 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25.//WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.338 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23.2019/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.899 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION PAPER OZ OF SILVER///INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.425 MILLION PAPER OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.179 MILLION OZ../

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 60 CENTS TODAY: A RATHER TIMID CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 842,000 PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 386.604 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

OCT 10/2019:

 

 

Inventory 384.939 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.205 and libor 6 month duration 1.93

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .12

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.90%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.89

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.01

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Wild plan to pull gold out of Bank of England intrigues Venezuelan officials

 Section: 

By Patricia Laya and Ben Bartenstein
Bloomberg News
Thursday, October 10, 2019

Charles Vincent is, for all intents and purposes, a nobody in the world of global finance.

Do a basic internet search for information on him or the Geneva-based firm — Pipaud & Partners Sarl — that he works for and almost nothing pops up. Swing by the address that Pipaud puts on its letterhead and there are no ostensible signs of its presence there.

… 

And yet when Vincent showed up in Caracas in early August with a wild, almost fantastical, plan to free up some $1.5 billion worth of Venezuelan gold frozen in accounts in London, the nation’s central bankers not only received him but listened with great interest.

Vincent, a U.K. national, wowed them with a strategy he devised to work around sanctions that would otherwise forbid such a transaction, according to three people who heard the proposal or were briefed on it. One of the people said central bank officials are still contemplating if they will go ahead with it. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-10/a-wild-plan-to-get-go…

END

Another Deutsche Bank bailout clue

 Section: 

Federal Reserve Drops Toughening Liquidity Rules on Foreign Banks

By Kiran Stacey and Laura Noonan
Financial Times, London
Friday, October 11, 2019

U.S. banking regulators have dropped an idea to subject local branches of foreign banks to tough new liquidity rules, in a move that could benefit the troubled Deutsche Bank more than any other.

The Federal Reserve will announce today that it has decided against forcing U.S. branches of foreign banks to hold a minimum level of liquid assets to protect them from a cash crunch, according to people familiar with the decision.

… 

They added that such rules are likely to be proposed in the coming months by international regulators instead, an outcome the banks themselves have argued is preferable to national regulators imposing rules.

Foreign banks do most of their U.S. business through intermediate holding companies, or IHCs, which are subject to extensive regulation and stress testing. Germany’s Deutsche Bank, which is scaling back its Wall Street business as it tries to stem spiralling losses, potentially has the most to gain from the concessions since it has the biggest branching presence of any foreign lender, with assets of $175 billion in its main U.S. branch. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/cf529274-ead3-11e9-a240-3b065ef5fc55?segmentI…


* * *

END

Silver glitters in India as record prices dull gold’s luster

 Section: 

By Swansy Afonso
Bloomberg News
Friday, October 11, 2019

Silver is outshining gold in India.

Imports of the poor man’s gold jumped 72% from a year earlier to 543.21 tons in August, according to the latest available data from India’s trade ministry. In contrast, inbound purchases of gold plunged by an equivalent amount to 32.1 tons, the lowest in three years, as record high prices sapped demand in the world’s second-biggest consumer of the metal.

… 

Gold has gained about 18% this year as the U.S.-China trade war hurts global growth and central banks loosen policy. In India, benchmark gold futures in Mumbai rose to record highs last month, while silver futures, though up 18% in 2019, are still almost 40% away from an all-time high in 2011.

The metal, at around 45,900 rupees ($646) a kilogram, is about 80 times cheaper than gold and far more affordable as an investment or the token bullion purchases Hindus consider auspicious in the run-up to the festival of Diwali later this month.

“The price point is so much lower that things are working in the favor of silver,” according to Chirag Sheth, a consultant at London-based Metals Focus Ltd. “It is still very, very reasonable to buy silver compared to gold.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-11/silver-glitters-in-in…

* * *

ETF investors are going for gold, despite many drawbacks

 Section: 

By Brian J. O’Connor
The New York Times
Friday, October 11, 2019

Like eager prospectors in a B western, many investors believe there’s gold in them hills — and that’s where they’re heading.

Gold has often been a haven for investors, and there are plenty of reasons to seek safety now. They include the trade war with China, weakness in Europe, central bankers looking at subzero interest rates, turmoil in the Middle East, the looming Brexit and uncertainty heading into the 2020 United States elections, and fears of a possible recession.

By mid-September, investors had poured nearly $8 billion this year into exchange-traded funds that hold gold.

But even some gold naysayers say this could be gold’s moment in the sun, including Vitaliy Katsenelson, chief executive and investment officer of the IMA investment advisory firm in Greenwood Village, Colo., and author of “The Little Book of Sideways Markets.” …

“When every country is trying to destroy its currency, it makes gold a more attractive investment,” Mr. Katsenelson says. “It’s OK to own a little gold. Today it’s not an irrational decision.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/11/business/etf-investors-gold-drawbacks…

END

Alasdair Macleod: Monetary failure is becoming inevitable

 Section: 

12:02p ET Friday, October 11, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Contrary to general assumptions, GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod writes this week, the recent explosion in “repurchase agreements” with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York does not signify any shortage of money in the financial system. Rather, Macleod writes, money creation is increasing faster than ever, striving to keep up with the welfare state’s exploding liabilities.

This money creation, Macleod writes, is exceeding the production of real goods and services and will produce what the economist Ludwig von Mises called the “crack-up boom,” where inflation — monetary debasement — becomes so obvious that people flee currencies for real assets.

While that indeed is the logic of infinite money, your secretary/treasurer would add that a corollary of infinite money under modern central banking is infinite commodity price suppression through the futures and derivatives markets. At some point commodity price suppression may be broken by shortages, but it has been working for central banks for many years and since commodity producers, mainstream financial news organizations and market analysts, and most investors don’t seem to care about it and its destruction of markets generally, it may continue indefinitely.

Macleod’s commentary is headlined “Monetary Failure Is Becoming Inevitable” and it’s posted at GoldMoney here:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/monetary-failure-i…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0918/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0816   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 25.96 POINTS OR 0.86%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 600.51 POINTS OR 2.34%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 246.89 POINTS OR 1.15%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 98.35/Euro FALLS TO 1.1040

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.18/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 54.26 and Brent: 60.26

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.45%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 93% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.23%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.43: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.44

3k Gold at $1480.00 silver at: 17.49   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 10/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.99

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.55 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9982 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1021 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.45%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.74% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.22%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8739..

“Sea Of Green” As Trade Deal, Brexit Optimism Send Futures, World Markets Soaring

So far, Friday has been a rerun of the Thursday session, where early “trade war” gloom turned to euphoria with the market convinced a mini trade deal between the US and China will be announced momentarily, just as soon as Trump and Liu He are scheduled to meet at 2:45pm in the White House. Throw in some Brexit optimism and there’s your reason why US equity futures jumped over 30 points overnight…

… and why global stock markets are a sea of green.

The MSCI world index jumped 0.8% to head toward its first weekly gain in four weeks. The broader Euro STOXX 600 soared 2.5%, led by a 3.4% surge in the German DAX. Tech shares led European gains, with the Stoxx 600 Technology Index surging 3.2%, most since April 24, led higher by SAP. Banks also rose, with the index rising 2.4%, most in a month, while S&P 500 futures jumped 0.9% Asian shares had rallied earlier, with an index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbing 1.3%.

The improvement in appetite for riskier bets came after U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday called the first day of trade talks with China in over two months “very, very good.” Trade optimism was bolstered overnight after a Chinese state newspaper said on Friday that a “partial” trade deal would benefit China and the United States, and Washington should take the offer on the table, reflecting Beijing’s aim of cooling the row before more U.S. tariffs kick in.

China’s top trade negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He, said on Thursday that China is willing to reach agreement with the United States on matters that both sides care about so as to prevent friction from leading to any further escalation. He stressed that “the Chinese side came with great sincerity”. Adding to that, the official China Daily newspaper said in an editorial in English: “A partial deal is a more feasible objective” adding that “Not only would it be of tangible benefit by breaking the impasse, but it would also create badly needed breathing space for both sides to reflect on the bigger picture.”

Additionally, and not coincidentally, hours ahead of an expected meeting between China’s Liu and U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House, China’s securities regulator unveiled a firm timetable for scrapping foreign ownership limits in futures, securities and mutual fund companies for the first time, suggesting that professional US gamblers will be welcome to invest, and lose, other people’s money in Chinese fraudcaps. China previously said it would further open up its financial sector on its own terms and at its own pace, but the timing of Friday’s announcement suggests Beijing is keen to show progress in its plan to increase foreigners’ access to the sector, which is among a host of demands from Washington in the trade talks.

Chinese officials are offering to increase annual purchases of U.S. agricultural products as the two countries seek to resolve their trade dispute, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday, citing unidentified sources. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Thursday confirmed net sales of 142,172 tonnes of U.S. pork to China in the week ended Oct. 3, the largest weekly sale to the world’s top pork market on record.

A (very unlikely) U.S.-China currency agreement is also being floated as a symbol of progress in talks between the world’s two largest economies, although that would largely repeat past pledges by China, currency experts say, and will not change the dollar-yuan relationship that has been a thorn in the side of Trump.

There were also overnight reports that the White House is reportedly mulling Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) dispute over access to China audits, according to reports. Officials are fixating on why Chinese companies can sell shares in the US when American regulators are prohibited from inspecting their books.

Analysts have noted China sent a larger-than-normal delegation of senior Chinese officials to Washington, with commerce minister Zhong Shan and deputy ministers on agriculture and technology also present. Separately, the SCMP reported that China’s Vice Premier Liu has a letter from President Xi, which may or may not be given to US President Trump in their meeting today.

The sudden optimism about a potential de-escalation is in stark contrast to much more gloomy predictions in business circles just days ago on the heels of a series of threatened crackdowns on China by the Trump administration. On Tuesday, the U.S. government widened its trade blacklist to include Chinese public security bureaus and some of China’s top artificial intelligence startups, punishing Beijing for its treatment of Muslim minorities. Surprised by the move, Chinese government officials told Reuters on the eve of talks that they had lowered expectations for significant progress.

Friday’s China Daily editorial also warned that “pessimism is still justified”, noting that the talks would finish just three days before Washington is due to raise tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports. The negotiations were the “only window” to end deteriorating relations, it added.

Investors cautioned that markets were hoping for, at best, a deal limited in scope, and they noted that sunny rhetoric had in the past failed to translate into more meaningful moves. “I would caution that we have been here before, where we have seen positive talk,” said Mike Bell, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “It’s possible they will be able to do a smaller deal around tariffs, where there is some room for movement.”

Elsewhere, Brexit optimism was also rampant and the pound soared higher on Friday – its largest daily percentage gain in seven months and biggest 2-day jump since June 2016 – after Donald Tusk, EU council president, said he had seen “promising signals” about the chance of a fresh Brexit agreement between the UK and the EU, even if the country hasn’t come forward with a workable, realistic plan.  Optimism that a deal could be reached has been increasing following a meeting between Boris Johnson, UK prime minister, and Leo Varadkar, Irish taoiseach, on Thursday, after which the two said they could see a “pathway” to a possible Brexit deal.

After meeting British Prime Minister Boris Johnson for talks, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said on Thursday that a deal to let Britain leave the European Union in an orderly fashion could be sealed by the end of the month. Varadkar called the talks “constructive,” while the two leaders said in a joint statement that they could “see a pathway to a possible deal”. But it remained unclear what the pair agreed on.

But with Britain due to leave the world’s biggest trading bloc on Oct. 31, the fate of Brexit is still in the balance. Market players said investors remained skittish. Moves in sterling reflected a tendency to jump on any signs of progress.

“We are moving to a glimmer of hope, rather than strong expectation that things will get done,” Tim Drayson, head of  economics at Legal & General Investment Management. Yet Drayson said that any deal struck between Dublin and London would then face the hurdle of the British parliament, even after securing agreement from the European Union. “I think the odds are that we don’t reach an agreement, but I’m not expecting a crash out on October 31.”

“We still think that markets are probably underpricing the likelihood of a hard Brexit scenario,” said Salman Baig, a cross-asset investment manager at Unigestion whose pound short appears to have been steamrolled by a backbreaking short squeeze.

In geopolitics, US House Republicans said they will introduce sanctions against Turkey in response to its offensive against Kurds in Northern Syrian, according to newswires. Subsequent reports indicate European response could be debated as early as next week

In commodities, oil prices jumped by 2% after Iranian news agencies said a state-owned oil tanker was struck by two missiles in the Red Sea near Saudi Arabia, raising the prospect of supply disruptions from a crucial producing region. Brent crude was up around 2.1% at $60.36 per barrel.

Expected data include the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Fastenal is reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 2,962.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1% to 386.50
  • MXAP up 1.2% to 157.15
  • MXAPJ up 1.4% to 504.43
  • Nikkei up 1.2% to 21,798.87
  • Topix up 0.9% to 1,595.27
  • Hang Seng Index up 2.3% to 26,308.44
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 2,973.66
  • Sensex up 0.9% to 38,227.49
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 6,606.81
  • Kospi up 0.8% to 2,044.61
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to -0.483%
  • Euro up 0.05% to $1.1010
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 8.7 bps to 0.616%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.3 bps to 0.194%
  • Brent futures up 1.5% to $59.96/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,499.17
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 98.52

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Trump said the first day of high-level trade negotiations between the U.S. and China on Thursday went “very well” and that he plans to meet with the top Chinese negotiator Friday
  • The U.K. and the European Union took a step closer to agreeing the terms of Brexit after a positive meeting between the British and Irish leaders identified a “pathway” to a potential deal. The pound jumped by the most in seven months. No-Deal Brexit to cost Ireland 73,000 jobs, central bank Says
  • The “jury is out” on whether the current slowdown in the U.S. economy will turn more severe amid weaker global growth and uncertainty over trade policy that’s chilling investment, according to Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester says U.S. central bankers should wait for fresh economic information before deciding their next policy move
  • The Bank of Japan’s promise to keep pumping extra money into the economy will eventually clash with its efforts to control interest rates, according to Hiromi Yamaoka, the former head of the central bank’s financial markets department. Yamaoka said the pledge to expand the monetary base until inflation is above 2% should be changed to make it easier for the BOJ to keep yields where it wants them

Asian equities took their cue from the rally on Wall Street which saw the DJIA close just below 26,500 as US President Trump said he will meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. ASX 200 (+0.9%) was supported by energy and mining names, whilst Nikkei 225 (+1.2%) felt tailwind for a weaker Yen. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+2.4%) outperformed as heavyweight financials and oil-related stocks bolstered the index amid a high-yield and firmer oil price environment. Meanwhile, Shanghai Comp. (+0.9%) swung between gains and losses with the mainland remains on-guard as sticking points remain between the two largest economies. Hong Kong Protesters reportedly are mulling whether to scale back on vandalism and violence as it risks alienating more moderate supported, according to reports. Japanese Typhoon Hagibis is forecast to be the most powerful typhoon to hit Tokyo since 1958, according to the meteorological agency.

Top Asian News

  • Malaysia Widens Budget Deficit Target to Weather Trade War
  • Tencent Gets ‘Wakeup Call’ From China’s Assertions of Patriotism
  • Violent Typhoon Heads for Japan, Canceling Over 1,000 Flights

Major European bourses are firmer thus far this morning as US-China newsflow remains light ahead of Trump and Liu He’s meeting at 19:45BST today; and following a positive Asia-Pac session where sentiment remained buoyed going into day two of talks. Sectors clearly illustrate the mornings heavy newsflow. With IT the notable outperformer following SAP (+7.6%) reporting earnings which were above Prev. and news that the CEO is to step down with immediate effect being well received. Also, firmer this morning are energy names following an Iranian tanker incident this morning, which is outlined in the Commodity section below. However, consumer discretionary names are suffering on the back of Hugo Boss (-13.3%) cutting their FY19 EBIT target citing persistent macroeconomic uncertainties; alongside, a number of downgrades at brokerages. Elsewhere, the FTSE 100 is this morning’s clear laggard given the recent upside in Sterling on positive Irish/UK PM comments regarding Brexit. However, in-spite of the index’s weakness the upbeat Brexit commentary has lent support to politically sensitive Co’s such as housebuilders and banks; although most recent comments from EU Council President Tusk have brought yet more urgency into the talks stating if there are no sufficient proposals today then he will have to announce there is no chance for a deal at next week’s summit. International Air Safety Panel have faulted the FAA for their certification of the Boeing (BA) 737 Max; FAA failed to sufficiently assess the MCAS system, did not sufficiently consider now design features of the craft, some regulations are out of date.

Top European News

  • Equinor Green-Lights $550 Million Subsidized Floating Wind
  • European Equities To Fall 8% in No-Deal Brexit Scenario: BofAML
  • Two Out of Three Options Trades Now Look for a Stronger Sterling
  • EU Will Discuss Sanctions Against Turkey Next Week: Syria Update

In FX, Aud/Usd has extended gains beyond 0.6750 and through the 50 DMA (0.6778) to within a whisker of 0.6800 on a wave of US-China trade optimism after day one of talks in Washington and generally positive updates from both sides on the status of trade negotiations thus far.

  • GBP – Yet another white knuckle ride for Sterling after a more pronounced short squeeze on Irish backstop breakthrough hype inspired by Thursday’s meeting between UK PM Johnson and Ireland’s Varadkar, and the latest catalyst came via EU’s Tusk rather Britain’s Brexit Minister Barclay or EU kingpin Barnier that have now completed their rendezvous to discuss the situation. In short, Tusk said the deadline for alternative border/customs proposals is today and as yet they have not been submitted, prompting an abrupt/sharp Pound plunge, but then revived bullish momentum by noting that promising signs from the Irish PM mean a deal can still be done. In terms of market moves, Cable collapsed to almost 1.2400 before regrouping and flying back up to 1.2500+ awaiting the debriefing from Barnier to EU states and fading just short of 1.2550, while Eur/Gbp has whipsawed between 0.8867-0.8789 and is poised just above 0.8800, but below the 200 DMA (0.8830).
  • NZD/EUR/CAD – All firmer vs a flagging Greenback (DXY only just holding above 98.500), with the Kiwi piggy-backing its Antipodean counterpart and climbing towards 0.6350, Euro consolidating above 1.1000 and Loonie maintaining a bid over 1.3300 ahead of Canadian jobs data and as oil prices rally in wake of an Iranian tanker missile attack . Back to Eur/Usd, decent option expiries at the 1.1000 strike may figure (1.4 bn), while tech levels could also influence trade/direction given Fibs at 1.1021 and 1.1055 and DMAs at 1.1054 and 1.0987 (55 and 21 respectively).
  • CHF/JPY – More safe-haven unwinding has nudged the Franc a bit nearer parity vs the Dollar and a test of 1.1000 against the single currency, while the Yen has slipped under 108.00 to expose September’s peak a fraction below 108.50.
  • EM – The Cnh is also anticipating good news from the President Trump-VP Lui He date at the White House that will officially close the latest round of talks, with the offshore Yuan hovering around 7.0900, but the Try has retreated in wake of US sanctions over Turkey’s military actions in Syria awaiting the EU’s response at next week’s summit – Lira back down towards 5.8750.

In commodities, Brent and WTI have been lifted this morning to gains of over USD 1/bbl at best on the back of early geopolitical newsflow that a Iranian tanker was on fire after a explosion near Saudi’s Jeddah port which led to heavy tanker damage and reports that oil was leaking into the Red Sea. TankerTrackers believe this tanker could be the SINOPA tanker which was on route to Syria and had a cargo of 1mln barrels on board. Subsequently, newsflow noted that the explosion was due to missiles and there were some reports that this originated from Saudi Arabia; however, Iran’s National Tanker Co. have denied reports that they said the missiles originated from Saudi Arabia though the Foreign Ministry confirm two hits on the tanker. The updates evidently led to a crude bid on further geopolitical tensions, particularly as reports note this is the 3rd Iranian tanker to be hit in around 6-months in this area; focus now turns to clarity on where the missiles originated from. Separately, today’s IEA report marked the end of the monthly trio where they cut their demand forecast form 2019 in stead with the other two reports. In terms of metals, spot gold was lifted above the USD 1500/oz mark on the middle-east geopolitical premium with the upcoming US-China trade talks also in focus; although it has since dropped back below.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.0%, prior -0.5%; Import Price Index YoY, est. -2.1%, prior -2.0%
  • 8:30am: Export Price Index MoM, est. -0.05%, prior -0.6%; Export Price Index YoY, prior -1.4%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 92, prior 93.2; Current Conditions, est. 109, prior 108.5; Expectations, est. 82.5, prior 83.4; 1 Yr Inflation, prior 2.8%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 2.4%
  • 11:45am: Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

What does or doesn’t happen over the next few days could have major ramifications for global politics for years to come. At the start of the week things looked bleak on prospects of any kind of US/China trade deal and even bleaker on the prospect on a Brexit deal. However we close out the week with renewed hopes on both of these with the latter being the more surprising of the two.

Indeed the Irish and U.K. PM’s joint statement “agreed that they could see a pathway to a possible deal.” The Irish Times suggested that there had been “significant movement” from the UK on the customs issue. If there has been a concession on NI customs this could very easily alienate the DUP and they’ve suggested they won’t back it. However where this would become clever is if Mr Johnson agreed to back down on this and agree a deal only on the basis that the EU refuse to back an extension if U.K. MPs vote this deal down. In this scenario ironically the very people who forced the government into the Benn Act (that takes no deal off the table) would be the ones responsible for a no deal if they voted the deal down. This calculation does rely on the ERG group staying with PM Johnson and not going back to rebelling but their bar to rebel seems to be higher under Johnson than May. So far we’ve got no details from the U.K. side and only cautious positive soundbites from the Irish (a big improvement relative to where we’ve been though). However no leaked news is probably good news for now and it’s remarkable that I’ve woken up this morning with nothing on the wires to flesh out the progress. Sterling rallied +1.97% against the dollar yesterday – the most in 7 months. In terms of next steps, the UK’s Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay will be meeting the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier today as the two sides look to move closer towards a deal ahead of Thursday’s EU Council summit. A long long way to go but unexpected hope after yesterday.

Prior to the Brexit developments the mood in markets started to pick up after a tweet from President Trump just after the US open, as he confirmed he would meet with Vice Premier Liu He at the White House today at 2:45pm. The fact that the President is meeting the Vice Premier directly can be seen as a positive sign for the path of negotiations, offering hope that some sort of ‘partial deal’ of the sort that has been briefed out might be possible. After US markets had closed, Trump said that the discussions were going “very well,” helping S&P 500 futures to trade +0.37% higher this morning. As part of this reported partial deal, Bloomberg reported that the White House is looking at rolling out a currency agreement with China that they’d previously agreed before the talks broke down earlier in the year, while not going ahead with the tariff hikes planned for October 15. For their part, China is reportedly asking for no further tariff hikes, as well as the elimination of sanctions on their national champion shipping company, COSCO. The US had barred American firms from doing business with the Chinese shipping giant last month, accusing the firm of transporting Iranian crude oil.

As a final point on the trade war, it’s worth reading this report (link here ) from our US economists from earlier this week. They delve into regional data to show that the trade war has had an outsized negative effect on counties that rely more on manufacturing. Interestingly, those counties also tended to be the ones which supported President Trump more in the 2016 election, meaning there are clear political implications to the current trade war.

Trade-sensitive stocks saw the biggest gains for the second consecutive day, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index up +0.97%, while the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closed up +0.64% and +0.60% respectively. Meanwhile bonds continued their earlier sell-off following the tweet, with 10yr Treasuries +7.9bps, and we saw another slight steepening of the curve, with the 2s10s closing +0.3bps, its 3rd consecutive move steeper. Bunds (+7.8bps) and BTPs (+8.9bps) also lost ground, with 10yr bund yields closing above -50bps for the first time in in over 3 weeks. Gilt yields rose +12.7bps, their biggest one-day increase in over a year.

The initial catalyst for the Euro government move seemed to be the FT story we mentioned as we went to press yesterday that the ECB monetary policy committee was at odds with the governing council. As we’ll see below the minutes backed up the splits at the ECB but nothing that came out yesterday should be a surprise. The market just decided to react to it more yesterday, and the selloff was given further boosts by the improvement in risk sentiment and a move higher in oil prices (+2.03%) after OPEC Secretary General Barkindo committed to do “whatever it takes” to prevent a drop in prices.

Asian markets are higher this morning on the more positive trade sentiment with the Nikkei (+1.08%), Hang Seng (+2.19%), Shanghai Comp (+0.44%) and Kospi (+1.00%) all up alongside most other markets. Yields on 10yr JGBs are up +2.7bps to -0.190%. Elsewhere, WTI crude oil prices are also up a further +0.56% and most agriculture (CBT Soybean +0.68%) and base metal (Copper c. 1%) commodity futures are also up.

Overnight we also got some Fed speak with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, a hawk, saying that US central bankers should wait for fresh economic information before deciding their next policy move. She also said that she did not support the central bank’s decision to cut interest rates in July and September as her preferred strategy “was to take action only if there were evidence of a material deterioration in the outlook and not merely on heightened risks”. Meanwhile, on the Fed’s ongoing framework review, she said that she understands the argument for a so-called make-up strategy, like average-inflation targeting, for addressing below-target inflation, but says the Fed would be challenged to commit credibly to such an approach and added that it would be better for the Fed to not overreact to variations of inflation around the 2% target. Elsewhere, in an interview with the WSJ, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, a dove, said that if data continues to come in the way it has, he will support another rate cut of 0.25%.

Back to yesterday and the positive sentiment also supported European equities, with the STOXX 600 up +0.65% and bourses across the continent ending in the green. Amidst the sterling rally, the FTSE 100 underperformed other European bourses rising only +0.28% despite the positivity in the air. Brexit sensitive stocks like U.K. financials were strong after the joint statement with the more domestically-focused Lloyds and Barclays gaining +3.89% and +2.90% respectively, while the more international and sterling-exposed HSBC retreated -1.09%.

In terms of the data yesterday, there were signs that the UK might have avoided a recession this quarter. Although monthly GDP data for August showed a -0.1% contraction (vs. unch expected), the July figures were revised up a tenth to +0.4% mom. After the -0.2% contraction in Q2, there has been nervousness that the economy would enter a technical recession, but the quarterly growth for the 3 months to August was at +0.3% qoq (vs. +0.1% expected). In spite of this, a number of the sector readings disappointed, with industrial production contracting by -1.8% yoy, the biggest yoy contraction since August 2013.

This contraction in industrial production was a theme elsewhere in Europe, with data from France also disappointing. Industrial production fell -1.4% yoy (vs. +0.1% expected), which is the biggest contraction of 2019 so far. It was a similar story in Italy, where industrial production fell -1.8%, as expected, but also the biggest yoy fall this year so far.

Turning to the US, CPI came in slightly below forecasts, with the September reading showing no mom change in prices (vs. +0.1% expected), which meant that the yoy reading remained at +1.7% (vs. +1.8% expected). Core inflation was also slightly below expectations, +0.1% mom (vs. +0.2% expected), with the yoy reading remaining at +2.4% (vs. +2.4% expected). Meanwhile weekly initial jobless claims were better than expected at 210k last week (vs. 220k expected), with the 4-week moving average ticking up slightly to 213.75k (vs. 212.75k previously).

Back to Europe, and the release of the minutes from September’s ECB meeting confirmed much of what we already knew, in that a number of members on the Governing Council had been opposed to the package of easing the ECB unveiled. Although the account revealed that “a few members” had been prepared to cut the deposit facility rate by 20bps, “in particular as part of a package that would exclude net asset purchases”, there were others who were against even the smaller 10bp cut, “as they were concerned about the possibility of increasingly adverse side effects from additional rate cuts.” With President Draghi departing at the end of the month, there’s going to be work to do in bringing unanimity back to the Governing Council under the ECB’s next leadership.

Speaking of EU leadership, France’s candidate for the next European Commission, Sylvie Goulard, was rejected by the European Parliament yesterday. She currently serves as the Deputy Governor at the Banque de France, and is the 3rd candidate for the next Commission to have been rejected so far in the confirmation hearings.

The Eurogroup of finance ministers also met yesterday, and agreed on a new common budget instrument, the budgetary instrument for convergence and competitiveness or BICC. However, this instrument is small at around 0.2% of GDP and draws its funding from the EU budget, so it does not represent a new fiscal commitment by European authorities. Also, Commissioner Moscovici, who has been watched for signals that the EU would allow countries to loosen their purse-strings this year, said “if there is a more marked downturn, we should not tighten our policies.” That’s an extremely tentative signal that the Commission would allow for easing if growth deteriorates further.

Looking at the day ahead, the data highlights include the final September CPI readings from Germany, while the main US release will be October’s preliminary University of Michigan sentiment indicator. Elsewhere, we’ll have the US import price index for September, as well as the Canada’s unemployment rate for September. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Kashkari, Rosengren and Kaplan, along with the ECB’s de Guindos, Hernzndez de Cos and Costa. Finally, the winner of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize will be announced.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 30.52 POINTS OR 1.04%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 131.51 POINTS OR 0.46%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 422.94 POINTS OR 1.97%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .42%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0914 /Oil UP TO 54.26 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.26 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0914 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0816 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

Beijing Reportedly Offers To Scrap Joint-Venture Requirement To Secure ‘Skinny Deal’

Update: Lawrence has re-published his tweet with one small tweak: He cited “Chinese trade sources” instead of leaving the sourcing vague with a simple “China”

Lawrence hinted at more critical trade-deal scoops to come by advising his audience to turn on Fox Business.

Edward Lawrence

@EdwardLawrence

You will want to have @FoxBusiness on all day for this important China Trade news day. The President says he will meet with the head of the Chinese delegation today at the White House.

In another trade-deal “scoop”, Politico’s Morning Money newsletter reported that “a delay of the tariff hike is unlikely” given what the Chinese delegation has offered so far.

* * *

For the second time, President Trump is expected to sit down with Liu He, the leader of China’s trade delegation, Friday afternoon as talk of a “skinny” deal – something the president once denounced as a non-starter – percolates.

The market now expects the “skinny” deal will become a reality: After all, it’s probably the best option for both sides to save face and prevent another sharp selloff in stocks. And according to Fox News reporter Edward Lawrence, Beijing is preparing to “completely remove” forced joint ventures by Jan. 2020 as its major deal concession. In exchange, the Chinese government is hoping the US will agree to roll back at least some of the trade war tariffs that have hammered China’s all-important manufacturing sector.

However, Lawrence deleted his tweet shortly after he published it – injecting a degree of uncertainty into the report.

The US has repeatedly insisted that it wouldn’t agree to roll back all the trade war tariffs at once, and that the complete removal would need to be contingent on evidence that Beijing has held up its side of the deal.

Eliminating the JV requirement would fall under the Trump administration’s demands for China to improve market access, something that Beijing has said it also wants. With Beijing having already approved several market liberalizing reforms over the past few years (mostly improving foreigners’ access to its debt and equity markets), it’s unclear whether Trump would find such an offer enticing.

Then again, Trump might care as he is desperate for a deal – and market liberalization could be spun as an impressive “concession” to sell as the basis for a deal.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Sterling Soars Most In 11 Years As Top EU Official Says Brexit Deal Looks “Promising”

Update (8 am ET): The British pound has been on an incredible tear these past few days in what can only be described as a brutal short squeeze.

The currency has already locked in its biggest two-day percentage gain since December 2008.

* * *

The pound extended its Thursday-evening gains on Friday after EU Council President Donald Tusk said he had seen “promising signals” from UK PM Boris Johnson’s Thursday meeting with Irish PM Leo Varadkar, according to the FT.

With these remarks, Brexit optimism, which has been slowly simmering all week, is cresting heading into the weekend after Varadkar said he could see a “pathway” to a deal. In one week, the UK and its EU partners will meet in Brussels at a EU Council meeting where Johnson hopes a final deal can be hammered out. Of course, he then would have to sell the deal to Congress.

Tusk said Friday during a speech in Brussels that “I have received promising signals from the Taoiseach [Varadkar] that a deal is still possible. Technical talks are taking place in Brussels as we speak. Of course, there is no guarantee of success and the time is practically up. But even the slightest chance must be used.”

However, Tusk cautioned that the UK still hasn’t come forward with a “workable, realistic proposal.” Varadkar has said he thinks a deal can be secured by the end of the month, but Johnson wants to nail down an agreement before the start of the EU Council meeting next weekend.

As we noted yesterday, Johnson and his team of negotiators believe winning over Varadkar is their best hope for a deal. After trying to negotiate with Michel Barnier, the EU27’s appointed lead negotiator, the UK believes Barnier is too intransigent in his positions, and can’t be trusted to meet the UK halfway, even after No. 10 has made meaningful concessions. Still, Johnson’s Brexit Secretary Steven Barclay met with Michel Barnier on Friday to work out the technical details of a “consent mechanism” and new customs arrangements for Northern Ireland. A spokesman for the European Commission later described Barnier’s meeting with Barclay as “constructive,” sending cable even higher. Whatever happens, Johnson and his team must ensure that a new deal can make it through parliament.

Deal optimism has triggered the best two-day gain for cable since June 2016 in the days before the Brexit referendum.

Even Julian Smith, secretary of Northern Ireland, said there was now a “distinct possibility” of a deal. According to the FT, details of a “compromise” deal could start leaking as early as Friday afternoon.

Most investment banks (including Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank) still believe the UK will leave the EU with a deal. But this wouldn’t be the first time that both sides have sent out signals that a deal is imminent, only for nothing to materialize.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Sanctions are now inevitable

(zerohedge)

US Special Forces In Syria ‘Mistakenly’ Bombed By Turkey

update: Turkey has now given Trump every reason to unleash the newly authorized sanctions, as Newsweek reports that American special forces troops have come under Turkish fire.

According to the breaking exclusive: “A contingent of U.S. Special Forces has been caught up in Turkish shelling against U.S.-backed Kurdish positions in northern Syria.” It was “apparently by mistake,” the report adds.

The Newsweek report cites an “Iraqi Kurdish intelligence official and senior Pentagon official” to say that “Special Forces operating in the Mashtenour hill in the majority-Kurdish city of Kobani fell under artillery fire from Turkish forces” amid operations related to ‘Operation Peace Spring’.

 

US Special Forces previously photographed operating in northern Syria, via the AFP.

It will be interesting to see what Ankara’s defense will be — no doubt claiming the attack on Americans was ‘accidental’ and ‘inadvertent’ — given that, as Newsweek continues:

The senior Pentagon official said that Turkish forces should be aware of U.S. positions “down to the grid.” While the official could not specify the exact number of personnel present, but indicated they were “small numbers below company level,” so somewhere between 15 and 100 troops.

No US casualties were mentioned in initial reports, however, this will likely be enough to trigger Washington sanctions in 3, 2, 1… But in the meantime

Barzan Sadiq

@BarzanSadiq

There is heavy shelling on right now.

Barzan Sadiq

@BarzanSadiq

forces evacuate its base in – reports

* * *

President Trump has again threatened more Turkey sanctions. In a surprise Treasury Department press briefing early Friday afternoon, Steven Mnuchin said the president has “authorized” new sanctions on NATO member Turkey over its ongoing assault on US-backed Syrian Kurdish groups in northern Syria, also as bipartisan legislation targeting Turkey has been introduced in both the House and Senate.

However, Mnuchin noted that the proposed sanctions have not been activated yet. “We are putting financial institutions on notice,” Mnuchin told reporters in the White House briefing room.

Eamon Javers

@EamonJavers

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says POTUS is concerned about the ongoing military offensive by Turkey. Says President Trump has authorized significant authorities for new sanctions, but the US is not activating those sanctions yet.

View image on Twitter
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The treasury secretary further promised that any additional Turkey sanctions would be “very powerful” — this as the Pentagon in its own briefing on the same day tried to push back against the idea that the US had “authorized” Erdogan’s military operation, or that it had “abandoned” the Kurds.

The Turkish lira remained volatile on the news after selling off all day, still hovering near its weakest level since August, after a day earlier Turkish stocks and government bonds fell, combined with the great unknown of looming and now apparently ever closer Washington punitive sanctions.

This also after the Pentagon earlier of Friday condemned the Turkish assault on northeast Syria, despite US troops withdrawing from border positions deeper into bases in the country which enabled the Turkish offensive in the first place.

And in more bad news for Erdogan and Turkey’s economy, France announced on Friday that EU sanctions against Turkey are “on the table,” as other European nations led by Sweden are pushing an arms embargo on Ankara.

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1040 DOWN .0029 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.55 UP 0.694 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2694   UP   0.0263  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3190 DOWN .0097 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 29 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1040 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 25.96 POINTS OR 0.86% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 600.51 POINTS OR 2.34%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .89%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 600.51 POINTS OR 2.34%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 25.96 POINTS OR 0.86%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .89% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 600.51  POINTS OR 2.34%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1475.50

silver:$17.45-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.74% !!! UP 7 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.22 UP 6 IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 98.35 DOWN 63 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.20% DOWN 0 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.18%  DOWN 12  BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.24%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.94 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 70points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.44% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.38% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1037 UP     .0024 or 24 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.37 UP .505 OR YEN DOWN 51  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2637 UP .0217 POUND UP 207  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 92 basis points to 1.3196

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0892    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  67.0811  (YUAN UP..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8833EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.18%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 6 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.73 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.19 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.33 DOWN 37  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 60.72  OR  0.84%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 347.45 POINTS OR 2.86 %

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 96.43 POINTS 1.73%

Spain IBEX CLOSED  UP 319.92 POINTS or 1.21%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 408.96 POINTS OR 1.88%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 54.70 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 60.25812:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    64.19  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.15 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 15 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.44 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  54.26//

 

 

BRENT :  60.08

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.73…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.19..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1037 ( UP 24   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.23 UP .505 (YEN DOWN 51 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.33 DOWN 37 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2637 UP 207  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8833

 

 

the Russian rouble 64.19   UP 0.26 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 26 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3196 UP 92 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.44%

 

The Dow closed UP 319.92 POINTS OR 1.21%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 160.92 POINTS OR 1.26%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.58 CLOSED DOWN 1.99

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.302%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, “Almost Complete” Trade Deal “That Could Still Fail”

Update: Trade deal ‘incomplete’

zerohedge@zerohedge

TLDR: US-China reach deal to spark massive S&P short squeeze based on rumors and hearsay and in exchange Trump won’t slam upcoming Chinese incursion in HK

*  *  *

So… China trade deal done (ok, not really, but don’t tell Trump or the market), Fed is printing again (but don’t call it QE), an oil tanker is blown up in the MidEast and oil barely budges (nothing to worry about there either), Brexit Deal is increasingly likely (so leaving EU is a good thing now?)! Everything is awesome!

What Wall Of Worry? VIX tumbled to a 15 handle (but note the steepness of the vol term structure through the US primaries and blip around the election)…

Source: Bloomberg

But, will The Fed still cut rates?

*ROSENGREN: CUTTING NOW ENCOURAGES RISK-TAKING AT WRONG TIME (wait what?!)

Source: Bloomberg

And if everything is so f**king awesome, why is The Fed opening its massive money spigot once again?

*ROSENGREN SAYS RESUMPTION OF FED BALANCE SHEET EXPANSION NOT QE (oh ok)

Source: Bloomberg

Ignore this…

Source: Bloomberg

Because this…

Source: Bloomberg

China stocks strengthened notably on the week as investors returned from Golden Week…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks also soared (with UK’s FTSE 250 exploding 4.2% higher today, biggest jump since May 2010)

Source: Bloomberg

US equities soared again today on the trade deal hype, extending yesterday’s gains…until the actual ‘news’ broke of the not-complete, could-still-fall-apart partial trade deal…

 

Also erasing the October losses (nasdaq the big gainer) until the news hit and stocks faded…

 

Futures show the chaos this week best…

with today’s mini-flash-crashes and spikes…

 

US equity gains were dominated by a massive two-day short-squeeze…

Source: Bloomberg

Quants suffered as momo was battered…

Source: Bloomberg

AAPL surged to a new record intraday high today but remains, very marginally, smaller in market cap than Microsoft (based on the latest available share count of course)…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Treasury Bonds were clubbed like baby seals this week with yields surging 20-23bps…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields dropped very briefly below 2.00% on Sunday night/Monday morning, then exploded higher from mid-week (biggest 3-day jump since Trump’s election)…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve exploded steeper today with 3m10Y un-inverting (up a wopping 25bps this week, biggest jump sine Trump’s election)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar dumped as trade hopes soared (and Brexit hopes)…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable soared a stunning 5 handles in the last two days, the biggest 2-day jump since Nov 2008 (even though -*TUSK SEES ‘NO REASON’ FOR OPTIMISM AFTER ‘3 YRS OF PROBLEMS’)…

Source: Bloomberg

Offshore yuan surged on the trade hype – a strong few days after coming back from Golden Week…

Source: Bloomberg

The Turkish Lira was monkeyhammered this week as Erdogan moved back into Syria…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos weakened for the second day in a row but Bitcoin and Ethereum managed to hold on to very modest gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil ended the week the big winner as trade talk optimism juiced demand hype and gold was dropped like a used needle on Market Street as who needs safety when everything is awesome…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI rallied up near $55 handle – highest since September…

Gold futures fell back below $1500…

 

Finally, we wonder when this gets priced in…

It could never happen again, right?

Source: Bloomberg

And in summary:

Sven Henrich

@NorthmanTrader

We have no agreement.
We have nothing in writing.
We have agreed to discuss a process on how to consult during which we will discuss what to agree upon.

Now get ready for phase 2 and meeting #14.

Trade wars are easy, didn’t I tell you?

end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

US-China Reach Partial Trade Deal, “Could” Set Up Trade Truce

Update (1330ET): Bloomberg reports confirm US and China have reached a partial agreement that would broker a truce in the trade war and lay the groundwork for a broader deal that President Trump and Xi Jinping could sign later this year, according to people familiar with the matter.

As part of the agreement, China would agree to some agricultural concessions and the U.S. would provide some tariff relief.

The pact is tentative and subject to change as Trump prepares to sit down with China’s Vice Premier Liu He later Friday.

The algos bought first…

Then thought about it (it’s a nothingburger)

*  *  *

Update (1300ET): Another slightly more upbeat trade headline just hit the tape: “China has already extended an official invite to Lighthizer, Mnuchin and their teams for additional trade talks in China ahead of next month’s APEC summit in the Chilean capital Santiago–from @Kevinliptakcnn & me.”

Cristina Alesci

@CristinaAlesci

China has already extended an official invite to Lighthizer, Mnuchin and their teams for additional trade talks in China ahead of next month’s APEC summit in the Chilean capital Santiago–from @Kevinliptakcnn & me

To be sure, this headline isn’t unequivocally bullish – far from it. Alarmingly, it suggests a deal – even the “skinny deal” the market has pinned its hopes on – might not have been reached on Friday. But at least the two sides seem to be getting along.

* * *

With the world and their pet rabbit buying stocks because they are sure a US-China trade deal is imminent, a headline from Reuters has exposed just how fragile this farce really is.

An “unreliable entities list” being developed by China is ready, but whether or not the list is published will depend on how talks with the U.S. progress, Reuters reported, citing two Chinese government sources.

Clearly designed as a last minute pressure tactic on today’s mini-deal and raising uncertainty.

Sparking a sudden plunge in stocks…

Notably, this reversal struck after S&P tagged its pre-Trump tantrum losses…

Somebody tweet something, stat!

end

ii)Market data/USA

Despite Tariff Tantrum, Import/Export Prices Tumble For 5th Month In A Row

So much for the trade war-driven inflation that anti-Trump-ers have screamed about, both import and export prices in September extended their annual declines to a fifth straight month.

  • Import prices rose 0.2% MoM (-1.6% YoY)
  • Export prices dropped 0.2% MoM (-1.6% YoY

The 5th straight month of annual deflation…

Source: Bloomberg

The most notable aspects of the import/export shifts are in consumer goods and autos (where fearmongering screamed about tariffs’ impacts):

  • Consumer goods prices unchanged m/m after rising 0.1% in Aug.
  • Auto prices unchanged m/m after no change in Aug.
  • Consumer goods export prices ex-autos 0.3% decline largest since Jan. 2017

As China exports the most deflation since July 2007…

 

So, for now, Trump remains right, the US consumer is not paying higher prices due to his tariffs. But, given the lagged impact of China’s credit impulse, is that about to change?

Source: Bloomberg

end

Repo Market Liquidity Unexpectedly Deteriorates As Funding Shortage Surges 35%

While the market has by now fully priced in that the Fed will resume “NOT A QE”, i.e. POMOs, i.e., BS-expanding Treasury Purchases as soon as the October FOMC (but more likely November), with Bank of America writing today that the Fed needs a “bazooka of asset purchases,” estimating that the central bank needs to add about $300BN of reserves to return to an “abundant’ level”, and Goldman predicting that the Fed will unleash no less than $60BN in POMO for the first 4 month of “NOT A QE“…

… as it seeks to rapidly blow out its balance sheet to avoid any more repo tremors of the kind observed in September that sent the overnight G/C repo rate to 9.25%, there was a modest hiccup in this best laid plan this morning, when the New York Fed unexpectedly announced that use of its overnight repo facility surged by 35% in one day, with $61.55BN in securities submitted ($58.35BN in TSYs, $3.2BN in MBS) to today’s op, up sharply from yesterday’s $45.5BN

While it could have been worse – the $75BN facility was not oversubscribed – it could have been better, as Wall Street indicated that the funding/reserve shortage spiked to the highest level since Sept 30, when $63.5BN in securities were submitted to the O/N repo facility.

Separately, the Fed also announced that in today’s 6-day Term Repo, $21.15BN in securities were submitted, or half the uptake in yesterday’s 14-day repo.

What to make of this? Well, with Wall Street now more than aware that the Fed will do everything it needs to to address the ongoing funding squeeze in the repo market, which in itself should be sufficient to ease the stress in overnight funding, this has so far failed to materialize. Worse, investors are becoming increasingly concerned that even with “NOT A QE”, year end could see even more dramatic repo market fireworks than those observed on December 31, 2018. In such a case, with the Fed literally throwing the “NOT A QE” kitchen sink at the problem, and the problem failing to go away, just how will Powell preserve the illusion that he knows what is causing the broken plumbing in the repo market if the Fed can’s unclog it even when using its “bazooka.” We will find out soon enough.

 END
POMO begins next week at a huge 60 billion dollars per month
(zerohedge)

QE 4 “Not A QE” Begins: Fed Start Buying $60BN In Bills Per Month Starting Next Week

Just one day after we laid out what Goldman’s revised forecast for the Fed’s “NOT A QE” will look like, which for those who missed it predicted that the Fed would announce monthly purchases of about $60BN for four months, split across Treasury bills and short maturity coupon Treasuries, in order to replenish the roughly $200bn reserve shortfall and support the pace of growth in non-reserve liabilities”, the Fed has done just that and moments ago – well ahead of consensus expectations which saw the Fed making this announcement some time in November – the US central bank announced it would start purchasing $60BN in Bills per month starting October 15This will be in addition to rolling over “all principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities and the continued reinvestment all principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities received during each calendar month.”

In short, the proposed schedule is virtually identical to the one Goldman “proposed” yesterday, one which sees the Fed purchase a grand total of $100BN or so in TSYs the near term, and one which is meant to “engineer a one-off level shift of roughly $200bn over the course of four months.

But wait there’s more, because just as today’s surprising spike in repo use suggested, mere “NOT A QE” may not cut it, and just in case, in order to provide an “ample supply of reserves”, the Fed will continue with $75BN in overnight repos and $35 billion in term repos twice per week, “at least through January of next year.”

Where the Fed’s announcement differs from Goldman’s proposed POMO schedule, is that this appears to be a far more aggressive form of “NOT A QE” because as the Fed notes it will continue well into the second quarter of 2020, meaning it will last beyond the 4 months proposed by Goldman, to wit: “in light of recent and expected increases in the Federal Reserve’s non-reserve liabilities, the Federal Reserve will purchase Treasury bills at least into the second quarter of next year in order to maintain over time ample reserve balances at or above the level that prevailed in early September 2019.”

The Fed’s proposal indicates that between the continuation of repo operations, and the net $60BN balance sheet expansion, the Fed’s balance sheet will reach roughly $4.2-$4.3 trillion some time in Q2 2020.

Here is the full statement from the Fed explaining all of the above:

In light of recent and expected increases in the Federal Reserve’s non-reserve liabilities, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) directed the Desk, effective October 15, 2019, to purchase Treasury bills at least into the second quarter of next year to maintain over time ample reserve balances at or above the level that prevailed in early September 2019. The Committee also directed the Desk to conduct term and overnight repurchase agreement operations (repos) at least through January of next year to ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample even during periods of sharp increases in non-reserve liabilities, and to mitigate the risk of money market pressures that could adversely affect policy implementation.

In accordance with this directive, the Desk plans to purchase Treasury bills at an initial pace of approximately $60 billion per month, starting with the period from mid-October to mid-November.  These reserve management purchases of Treasury bills will be in addition to the Desk’s ongoing purchases of Treasury securities related to the reinvestment of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Detailed information on the schedule for reserve management purchases of Treasury bills will be announced on or around the 9th business day of each month on the Treasury Securities Operational Details site.

Consistent with this directive, the Desk will roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities. As Treasury bill holdings mature, the principal payments will be rolled into new Treasury bill securities.

In addition, at least through January of next year, the Desk will conduct overnight and term repo operations to ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample and to mitigate the risk of money market pressures. Term repo operations will generally be conducted twice per week, initially in an offering amount of at least $35 billion per operation. Overnight repo operations will be conducted daily, initially in an offering amount of at least $75 billion per operation. Detailed information on the schedule of term and overnight repurchase agreement operations will be announced on or around the 9th business day of each month on the Repurchase Agreement Operational Details site.

So with a combined firepower between POMO and Repo in the $100s of billions per month, someone will still have the gall not to call this QE 4 “NOT A QE”?

Why yes: the Fed itself, because the last thing the Fed needs is for pundits to start asking question why Powell is launching QE when the economy is supposedly stable (and just weeks after Trump said the Fed should do “some QE”), to wit:

These actions are purely technical measures to support the effective implementation of the FOMC’s monetary policy, and do not represent a change in the stance of monetary policy.

Sure, Jerome, whatever you say: A $60BN Bill POMO + $75BN in weekly O/N Repo + $70BN (2x$35BN) in weekly Term Repo is clearly “NOT A QE“.

END

Treasury Yield Curve Un-Inverts: “Seals Fate Of Imminent Recession”

The most-watched, and most-accurate in forecasting recessions, segment of the US Treasury yield curve has – ominously – uninverted.

Source: Bloomberg

At first glance, mainstream media will laud the apparent downshift in fear, but, as DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach recently noted, added, seeing the yield curve steepen isn’t necessarily be a good sign.

“That would almost seal the fate of recession coming,” he said.

“It’s not so much the inversion – the inversion is a warning that there’s one coming. But, you start to get in the imminence category once it first starts steepening out from the inversion, because, by then, the Fed has realized it’s behind the curve, the market knows it too, and everybody knows the Fed’s going to be slashing interest rates.” –Yahoo Finance

Source: Bloomberg

Recession Odds remain at post-crisis highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Get back to work Mr. Powell? Well, as the trade deal looks more imminent (skinny, lite, mini), rate-cut odds have dropped…

Source: Bloomberg

END

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

After Unveiling ‘NotQE’, Fed Eases Liquidity Rules For Foreign Banks (Rescues Deutsche)

Having cracked down on Deutsche Bank in the past, The Fed appears to be playing good-regulator/bad-regulator as The FT reports that Deutsche is expected to benefit most from an imminent change in The Fed’s liquidity rules.

Specifically, US banking regulators have dropped an idea to subject local branches of foreign banks to tough new liquidity rules (forcing US branches of foreign banks to hold a minimum level of liquid assets to protect them from a cash crunch).

As The FT further details, people familiar with his thinking say Randal Quarles, the vice-chair for banking supervision at the Fed, accepts the banks’ argument that any liquidity rules on bank branches should only be imposed in conjunction with foreign regulators.

“Without some international agreement, we could have the situation where each country is trying to grab whatever isn’t nailed down if there is another scare.”

And Deutsche Bank benefits most (or rescued from major liquidity needs) since it has by far the largest assets in US branches…

Why would The Fed do this?

Simple, it cannot afford another Lehman-like move (or even the fear of one)…

Source: Bloomberg

end

WeWork Could Run Out Of Cash By Next Month, Seeks Immediate Bailout

Investment banks behind WeWork are panicking as it seems a bailout of the company could be imminent, reported Financial Times.

Sources told FT that “fundraising efforts” are currently underway as the company’s cash is about to be depleted.

We noted last month that the company lost $690 million in the first six months of the year and is expected to generate a loss from operations approaching $3 billion as it burns through tens of millions in cash daily. Analyst estimate that the company could run out of money by mid-2020.

And now Bloomberg is reporting that WeWork’s cash crunch is even more acute:

Analysts had previously estimated that the company would run out of money by the middle of next year. WeWork had been counting on an initial public offering — and a $6 billion loan contingent on a successful IPO — to meet its cash needs, but that plan unraveled amid questions about its future profitability…

…it needs new financing before the end of November to avoid running out of money, two people familiar with the matter said.

FT sources are now indicating that a potential lifeline, otherwise known as a bailout, could be imminent. 

The bailout of WeWork could be led by JPMorgan Chase and other Wall Street banks. If no cash infusion by late November, WeWork could enter into bankruptcy in 1H20, or by next summer.

Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings downgraded WeWork’s credit rating last week by two notches to “CCC+,” putting the SoftBank funded office-sharing company very deep into junk territory.

“In the absence of an IPO and associated senior secured debt raise, WeWork does not have sufficient funding to meet its growth plan,” Fitch wrote in a note.

Last month’s decision to abandon the IPO deprived the company of $3 to $4 billion in funding and $6 billion in a loan package investment banks promised if it went public.

Since the IPO was pulled and valuations collapsed, WeWork’s WE 7.875 01-MAY-2025 junk bond was last trading at about 82 cents on the dollar (as of Friday 6 am est., according to Tradeweb data, a massive discount to face value, which indicates doubts the company can repay its debts.

Without new cash, WeWork is unsustainable; the company could start liquidating its CRE exposure as it begins the inevitable pre-bankruptcy shrinking process — if no cash infusion next month.

As a result of running out of cash, as Bloomberg warns, WeWork’s business model is severely flawed.

“WeWork has raised more than $12 billion to rent office space that it renovates and then leases to companies. But that strategy has left it in a precarious position. It has some $47 billion of future rent payments due. On average it leases its buildings for 15 years. Yet its tenants are committed to paying only $4 billion, and on average have leases for 15 months.”

zerohedge@zerohedge

When does the WeWork real estate liquidation sale begin

With the equity market window shut, and credit markets starting to crack, something that we noted on Thursday, the next question is if WeWork gets a bailout next month.

If not, the WeWork implosion of 2020 could be a spectacular mess and a massive headache for SoftBank/Vision Fund and Wall Street banks – as the company crashes from $47 billion valuation to insolvent in 2 months…

A record?

END

Rabo: “Don’t Expect A ‘Risk-On’ Rally To Be Sustained On Any Short-Term Deal”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Markets are saying ‘Happy Friday’ on a variety of key fronts as deals gain wheels – for now. But we aren’t at the weekend yet, and not all weekends are as relaxing and enjoyable as one would hope.

In Europe after a long meeting, including some one-on-one time, the British PM and Irish Taoiseach Varadkar managed to achieve enough of a breakthrough on Brexit and Northern Ireland that the latter declared there is a “pathway to a possible Brexit deal.” That comes as a surprise to sceptical EU officials, to Angela Merkel, who allegedly wants Northern Ireland to remain in the Customs Union forever, and to British opposition parties who publicly declare Boris Johnson is a bumbling, nationalist rogue agent who cannot be trusted to tie his own shoelaces. GBP obviously loved the news, surging back from 1.22 to 1.24. Yet now comes the hard part: trying to explain exactly what that pathway to a possible Brexit deal actually looks like. Is that pathway a border in the Irish Sea that leaves the DUP on one side and BoJo on the other? So many questions, and so few answers – but also so few possible answers.

For BoJo, however, it must surely take some of the pressure off on at least one key front. That’s also as an exclusive poll in the Torygraph Telegraph shows that the PM can only win a majority at the next election if he delivers Brexit by 31 October: any delay, even if it leads to a No Deal Brexit, or to Article 50 being repealed and Brexit cancelled, would instead see the next election produce a hung parliament and more years of drift and chaos. But get the UK out by 31 October and BoJo will win a huge majority of over 100, apparently. One perhaps sees why he is being so determined: and one also sees why, from a parliamentary perspective, Labour and the Liberal Democrats might want to stop this apparent breakthrough from happening. So, all to play for still.

In the US we have been whipsawed by US-China trade headlines. Once again they are back in sunshine territory with suggestions some kind of mini-deal could be done. Even President Trump tweeted “Big day of negotiations with China. They want to make a deal, but do I?” and that the first day went “very well”. That was enough for stocks to rally, US 10-year yields to rise 8bp, and CNH, which had been near 7.16, to rally back to under 7.10. Given the high-level of Chinese representation in the room for today’s negotiations, everyone will be asking “What will He say?” (zeitgeist-ily pronounced “Her”). Indeed, what is Vice-Premier Liu He offering this time round? Market expectations are suddenly that we will get a mini-deal of Chinese agri purchases and perhaps a further delay in the imposition on some of the scheduled increase in US tariffs.

CNY will be happy if so, but that’s hardly a game changer. Indeed, in the background we have the NBA issue still snowballing; Trump happy to see supply-chains leave China; an expanding tech cold war; crackdowns on Chinese scientists working in the US; US visa restrictions related to Xinjiang; Chinese visa restrictions on some from the US; Hong Kong; rumors of US capital controls into China and from Chinese firms; and the Pentagon looking to place ballistic missiles aimed at China somewhere in the region. Unless that changes too, any potential short-term deal that is struck here doesn’t stop the overall US-China dynamic that is emerging; it would just be a short-term, election-focused ‘Nasty-Soviet Pact’. (And the original Pact also involved soy bean sales.) In short, don’t expect risk-on or CNY rallies to be sustained. We certainly expect any accord to try to keep CNY stable to be unrealistic in the current circumstances, as noted in LOL-A-PLAZA!, which was published yesterday.

END

iv) Swamp commentaries)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Well that is all for today

I will see you Monday night.

 

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