OCT 14

GOLD:$1493.25 UP $8.25(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.68 UP 18 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1493.10

 

silver:  $17.66

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 0/38

____________________________________________________________________________________________

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT: 38 NOTICE(S) FOR 3800 OZ (0.1182 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  10,770 NOTICES FOR 1,077,000 OZ  (33.499 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR 0CT

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 925 for 4,625,000 oz

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Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 8254 down 21 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8339 UP 63

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG  SIZED 1118 CONTRACTS FROM 210,039 DOWN TO  208,921 WITH THE 6 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR SEPT 0,; DEC  528 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  528 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 528 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 528 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 2.64 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 6 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

6.31     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

FRIDAY, ANOTHER MAJOR ATTEMPT BY THE BANKERS TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL AT THE SILVER COMEX AS ANOTHER RAID WAS INITIATED.  OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR//BANKERS AGAIN USED HUGE COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN THEIR SUCCESSFUL ENDEAVOUR TO WHACK SILVER’S PRICE (6 CENTS LOWER). TODAY WE LOST A SMALL NUMBER OF CONTRACTS ON BOTH EXCHANGES OF 590 CONTRACTS WITH THE BANKERS TRYING TO LIGHTEN THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITION

 

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF OCT:

11,422 CONTRACTS (FOR 10 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 11,422 CONTRACTS) OR 57.11 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1142 CONTRACTS OR 5.71 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  57.11 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 8.15% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1696.90   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1118, WITH THE 6 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 528 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE LOST A SMALL SIZED: 590 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 528 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1118  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 6 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.50 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.044 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 149% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 6.31 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 9390 CONTRACTS, TO 605,365 ACCOMPANYING THE $12.90 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// FRIDAY// /

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 20,788 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  20,788 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 605,365.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,398 CONTRACTS: 9390 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 20,788 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 11,398 CONTRACTS OR 1,139,800 OZ OR 35.45 TONNES.  FRIDAY WE HAD A LOSS OF $12.90 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUGE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 35.56  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON AS ANOTHER RAID WAS INITIATED. THE BANKERS WERE VERY SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE .THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA. 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT : 63,821 CONTRACTS OR 6,382,100 oz OR 198.51 TONNES (10 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 6382 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 198.51TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 198.51/3550 x 100% TONNES =5.59% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4862.43  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 9,390 WITH THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK FRIDAY($12.90)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 20,788 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 20,788 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 11,398 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

20,788 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 9,390 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 35.45 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $12.90 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  38 notice(s) filed upon for 3800 oz of gold at the comex.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP$8.25 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71  TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: 

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1118 CONTRACTS from 210,039 DOWN TO 208,921 AND FURTHER FROM  A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR OCT. 0; FOR DEC  528:    AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 528 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 1118  CONTRACTS TO THE 528 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A LOSS OF 590 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2.9590 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 6.31 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 6 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 528 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 34.23 POINTS OR 1.15%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 213.41 POINTS OR 0.81%   /The Nikkei closed UP 246.89 POINTS OR 1.15%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .53%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0698 /Oil DOWN TO 53.54 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.41 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0698 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8834 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

The truth begin the China/USA trade deal.   In a nutshell it will not help the USA deficit one bit

(courtesy Joseph Carson/Global Economic Research)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Lagarde will have a problem in one year as the ECB will have reached its buying limits

(zerohedge)

ii)UK

the pound weakens as a Brexit deal looks dim//Hard Brexit??

(zerohedge)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Iran

Who fired upon Iran’s cargo ship?

Luongo analyzes the situation

(Tom Luongo)

ii)SUNDAY  9 am

TURKEY/SYRIA/USA
Trump orders complete withdrawal from Syria and Turkey fires upon the USA “unintentionally”.  USA forces were bracketed by Turkey and with their firing at the USA bases, Trump had no choice but to withdraw.  It seems that the Syrian Democratic forces have made a deal with Damascus to counterattack Turkey in the North. The USA is planning sanctions on Turkey.
(zerohedge)

iii)Sunday 4 pm

Turkey/Syria
Now the Syrian army of Damascus is heading for the besieged Kurdish towns as Erdogan warns that the conflict between the two armies may escalate. Russia makes its “deal of the century” by standing by its ally Syria and claiming that Syria must be free of all foreign elements and that includes Turkey.
(zerohedge)

iv)Russia/Syria/TurkeyWith the uSA now out, Putin’s “deal of the Century” is now unfolding as they try and broker a deal between Damascus and Turkey, soething that Erdogan promised that he would never do.

(zerohedge)

v)Monday/Turkey

The Turkish lira drops on news that big sanctions are coming

(zerohedge)

vi)Turkey/EU

The EU backs off arms embargo as Erdogan holds all the cards..basically the 3.6 million migrants held inside Turkey ready to be exported to Greece
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

Now we witness global air freight levels in serious decline..the worst since 2008

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)More and more central banks are warning of a probable financial system  meltdown. The Netherlands central bank claims that a revaluation of gold is a perfect system for rebuilding the financial mess.

(Netherlands Central Bank/GATA)

full report below.

ii)Russia looks again to de dollarize which will be the death knell to the uSA dollar

London’s Financial Times/GATA

iii)Pretty much what I have been telling you:  ETF growth is nothing but paper gold

(Egon Von Greyerz/Kingworldnews/GATA

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

It never ends:  Lampert bought 425 Sears and K Mart stores out of bankruptcy. Bricks and mortar catastrophe continues as he will close about 100 of those stores.

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Nonsense continues with the swamp as Schiff now states that the whistleblower may not testify. My question is why would he? We already have the full description of the phone call.

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 9,390 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 605,365 ACCOMPANYING THE LOSS OF $12.90 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED HUMONGOUS SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 20,788 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR SEPT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 20,788   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  20,788 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 11,398 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 20,788 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 9390 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE AS IT FELL BY $12.90. HOWEVER, JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY UNSUSPECTING LONGS. THE RAID THIS MORNING  WAS ANOTHER ATTEMPT TO FORCE LONGS TO LEAVE THE GOLD ARENA

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  11398 CONTRACTS OR 1,139,800 OZ OR 35.45 TONNES.

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER.  This month is generally the poorest delivery month of the year as must players prefer to go straight to the big active delivery month of December. Strangely October will turn out to be a huge delivery month. Today we have 262 contracts still standing for a GAIN of 15 contracts. Yesterday we had 25 notices served upon so we despite the raid yesterday and today, we have a gain of 400 contracts or an additional 4000 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. We again have queue jumping by the bankers in their attempt to find physical metal.

 

The next active delivery month after October is the non active contract month of November. Here we saw a LOSS of 163 contracts and thus the OI DECREASED to 908.  The very big December contract month saw its oi FALL by 11,347 contracts DOWN to 466,058.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 38 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  3800 OZ. (0.1182TONNES)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1118 CONTRACTS FROM 210,039 DOWN TO 208,921 (AND FURTHER FROM A NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A 6 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//FRIDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER.  HERE WE HAVE 338 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A GAIN OF 1 CONTRACT. WE HAD 0 CONTACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 1 CONTRACTS OR 5,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH.  THE ALSO REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

AFTER OCTOBER WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND HERE  WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 1 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 479. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI FALLS BY 1199 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 155,540.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL, OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 218,445  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  513,170  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

OCT 14/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
38 notice(s)
 3800 OZ
(0.1182 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
223 contracts
(22300 oz)
0.6936 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
10,770 notices
1,077,000 OZ
33.499 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ today zero amount  arrived

all last week, nothing arrived or left. 

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

FOR THE OCT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 38 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,770) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT. (261 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (38 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,099,300 OZ OR 34.192 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of OCT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (10770 x 100 oz)  + (262)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (38 x 100 oz )which equals 1,099,300 oz standing OR 34.192 TONNES in this  active delivery month of OCT.

We gained a strong 41 contracts OR 4100 ADDITIONAL OZ which queue jumped as our bankers //official sector were searching for badly needed physical

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 3 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

AND NOW……………………………………………………………………………     OCT. 34.192 TONNES

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT IN SEPT 2 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.6 TONNES.

IF WE ADD THE THREE DELIVERY MONTHS: 66.797

TONNES- 2.60 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 64.197 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 35.78 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1,150,534.308 oz or  35.78 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,187.027 oz 254.65 tonnes

IN THE LAST 36 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
OCT 14 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 599,472.03 oz
Brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
11,061.94 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
338 contracts
 1,690,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  925 contracts

4,625000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

ii)into CNT: 11,061.94 oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  11,061.94  oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of brinks:  599,472.03 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 599,472.02  oz

 

we had 0 adjustment :

 

total dealer silver:  80.484 million

total dealer + customer silver:  313.522 million oz

FOR THE SEPT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 3 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the OCT 2019. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR NIL oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 925 x 5,000 oz = 4,625,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (338) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 925 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (338)- number of notices served upon today (2x 5000 oz equals 6,315,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month. 

WE  GAINED 1 contract or an additional 5,000 oz of silver will stand at the comex as they guys refused to morph into london based forwards. For the past several weeks we have been witnessing queue jumping in both gold and silver.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for 10,000 OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  47,988 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 106,503 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 106,503 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 535 million  OZ 76.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.50% ((SEPT 30/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.06% to NAV (SEPT 30/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.50%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.66 TRADING 14.17///DISCOUNT 3.34

 

 

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 14/2019: WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 TODAY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.00 TODAY, A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921,71 TONNES

OCT.9//WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT 8\WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

0CT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN 7 DOLLARS//A BIG CHANGE //A DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES//

INVENTORY RISES TO 923.76 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $15.25 A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 920.83 TONNES

SEPT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $32.50: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.88 TONNES

SEPT 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 26//WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90 A HUGE  PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  16.42 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

 

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.65 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN OUT OF THIS WORLD DEPOSIT OF 14.37 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 10.65 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 ON THE DAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.06 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 16/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A BIG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 12//WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A HUGE 7.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.15 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

 

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OCT 14/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 921.71 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 679 TRADING DAYS: 27.94 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 579 TRADING DAYS: A NET 139.20 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 14/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ//

OCT 10/2016//WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.443 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 166,000 OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 1.2019 //WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.87 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.656 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25.//WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.338 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23.2019/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.899 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION PAPER OZ OF SILVER///INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.425 MILLION PAPER OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.179 MILLION OZ../

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 60 CENTS TODAY: A RATHER TIMID CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 842,000 PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 386.604 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

OCT 14/2019:

 

 

Inventory 384.939 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.02/ and libor 6 month duration 1.97

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .05

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.93%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.96

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.03

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

More and more central banks are warning of a probable financial system  meltdown. The Netherlands central bank claims that a revaluation of gold is a perfect system for rebuilding the financial mess.

(Netherlands Central Bank/GATA)

full report below.

Netherlands central bank: Gold is ‘the perfect piggy bank’ and can rebuild a financial system

 Section: 

Bitcoin.com’s Graham Smith today calls attention to the article below he discovered at the internet site of the central bank of the Netherlands. It’s unusual for a central bank to be so candid about gold’s essential monetary properties and potential for repairing the financial system.

* * *

De Nederlandsche Bank’s Gold Stock

From De Nederlandsche Bank, Amsterdam

https://www.dnb.nl/en/payments/goud/index.jsp#

De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) holds more than 600 tonnes of gold. A bar of gold always retains its value, crisis or no crisis. This creates a sense of security. A central bank’s gold stock is therefore regarded as a symbol of solidity.

… 

DNB’s gold vault stores 15,000 bars of gold, worth over 6 billion euros and representing a third (31%) of DNB’s total gold stock. Another third (31%) is located in New York. This gold is stored in the vaults of the Federal Reserve Bank, on Manhattan’s granite rocks. A larger share of the gold used to be stored there, but DNB retrieved part of it in 2014. The remaining 38% is stored in the vaults of the Canadian and UK central banks in Ottawa and London.

Shares, bonds, and other securities are not without risk, and prices can go down. But a bar of gold retains its value, even in times of crisis.

That is why central banks, including DNB, have traditionally held considerable amounts of gold.

Gold is the perfect piggy bank — it’s the anchor of trust for the financial system. If the system collapses, the gold stock can serve as a basis to build it up again. Gold bolsters confidence in the stability of the central bank’s balance sheet and creates a sense of security.

* * *

end

Russia looks again to de dollarize which will be the death knell to the uSA dollar

London’s Financial Times/GATA

 

Russia looks at alternatives to dollar for energy transactions

 Section: 

By Max Seddon and Henry Foy
Financial Times, London
Sunday, October 13, 2019

MOSCOW — Russia is exploring currency settlements in euros and roubles for its vast energy exports in an attempt to avoid the dollar and insulate Moscow from the U.S.-led global financial system.

Maxim Oreshkin, Russia’s economy minister, told the Financial Times that Russia wanted to minimise its exposure to the United States by attracting more investors through rouble settlements.

… 

“We have a very good currency. It’s stable. Why not use it for global transactions?” Mr. Oreshkin said in an interview.

“We want [oil and gas sales] in roubles at some point,” he said. “The question here is not to have any excessive costs from doing it that way, but if the broad … financial infrastructure is created, if the initial costs are very low, then why not?”

Kremlin-controlled Gazprom exported $51 billion worth of natural gas to Europe last year, while state-owned Rosneft exported 123.7 million tonnes of oil.

Moscow has looked to offset its exposure to U.S. economic sanctions through a “de-dollarisation” scheme that has seen the finance ministry’s bond program issue all new debt in euros and roubles. The central bank has reduced its holdings of U.S. treasury debt from $96 billion to just $8 billion in the past 18 months.

“You have negative rates in euros and you have positive rates in roubles with stable and predictable inflation,” he added. “There are no capital controls. It’s fully flexible. You can get in or get out at any time.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/704cde6c-eb53-11e9-a240-3b065ef5fc55

end

Pretty much what I have been telling you:  ETF growth is nothing but paper gold

(Egon Von Greyerz/Kingworldnews/GATA

ETF gold growth is just double-counted paper, von Greyerz tells KWN

 Section: 

11:09a ET Saturday, October 12, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Swiss gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz tells King World News that while exchange-traded funds are reporting big inflows of gold, demand for real metal from Swiss refineries is not increasing. So he concludes that the ETFs are obtaining only paper claims to gold, and likely claims to gold that is already at least double counted in the bullion banking system.

Von Greyerz’s interview is posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/greyerz-this-is-the-truly-shocking-thing-about…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

As we have reported to you earlier:  the FCA  (criminal division) is looking into JPMorgan’s criminal behaviour

(Reuters/Delevingne/Peter Hobson/GATA)

U.K. regulators review JPMorgan metals trading amid U.S. probe, sources tell Reuters

 Section: 

By Lawrence Delevingne and Peter Hobson
Reuters
Friday, October 11, 2019

Britain’s financial services regulator is examining allegations of precious metals market manipulation by JPMorgan Chase & Co. traders following criminal charges by U.S. authorities, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is one of the various authorities that JPMorgan has previously said were investigating its metals trading, according to one of the people, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter. The watchdog has requested documents and other information from JPMorgan, the source said.

… 

The exact scope of the FCA scrutiny and whether it will result in any charges were unclear.

The U.S. Department of Justice has charged five current and former JPMorgan metals traders, who worked in New York, London, and Singapore, with price manipulation between 2007 and 2016. Two of them have been charged in parallel by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The joint investigation is ongoing, a DOJ official has said.

One of the traders was charged in 2018 and four this year. Two have pleaded guilty to manipulating prices. The lawyers for the three most recently charged, in September, said their clients would contest the allegations against them. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-metals-jpmorgan/british-regul…

British regulator reviews JPMorgan metals trading amid U.S. probe: sources

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s financial services regulator is examining allegations of precious metals market manipulation by JPMorgan Chase & Co traders following criminal charges by U.S. authorities, according to two people familiar with the matter.

FILE PHOTO: A view of the exterior of the JP Morgan Chase & Co. corporate headquarters in New York City May 20, 2015. REUTERS/Mike Segar/Files

The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is one of the various authorities that JPMorgan has previously said were investigating its metals trading, according to one of the people, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter. The watchdog has requested documents and other information from JPMorgan, the source said.

The exact scope of the FCA scrutiny or whether it will result in any charges was unclear.

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has charged five current and former JPMorgan metals traders, who worked in New York, London and Singapore, with alleged price manipulation between 2007 and 2016. Two of them have been charged in parallel by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The joint investigation is ongoing, a DOJ official has said.

One of the traders was charged in 2018, and four this year. Two have pleaded guilty to manipulating prices. The lawyers for the three most recently charged, in September, said their clients would contest the allegations against them.

JPMorgan said in an Aug. 6 regulatory filing that it was “responding to and cooperating” with various investigations relating to trading practices in the metals markets.

The FCA, DOJ and CFTC all declined to comment.

 

The second person familiar with the matter is London-based metals trader Andrew Maguire, who has long complained about alleged metals market manipulation on both sides of the Atlantic.

He told Reuters he met FCA officials in August, along with British lawmaker Jeremy Lefroy, to discuss possible metals market manipulation in London. He said he was told by the officials that they were looking into JPMorgan’s metal trading, and that they had contacted the DOJ and CFTC to learn more.

Lefroy confirmed that the meeting with the FCA took place and said he and Maguire were assured that the FCA was following the U.S. investigation closely for any possible implications in Britain and would follow up on these if found.

New York and London are hubs for precious metals dealing, and large international banks are among the biggest traders, managing orders for themselves and clients.

U.S. prosecutors have said that the five charged JPMorgan traders had influenced metals prices by placing bids with the intent to cancel them before execution – a technique known as spoofing. By creating an illusion of demand, spoofers can move prices to benefit their market positions.

There has been a surge in spoofing-related prosecutions in recent years involving banks and dealers. These include Bank of America Corp’s Merrill Lynch commodities unit, which was fined $25 million by U.S. authorities in July, and Morgan Stanley, which was fined $1.5 million in the United States last month.

The DOJ has taken an aggressive stance, most recently charging three of the five men in the JPMorgan case with a racketeering conspiracy, a technique more commonly associated with organized crime prosecutions. All contest the charges.

 

end

Central Bank Issues Stunning Warning: “If The Entire System Collapses, Gold Will Be Needed To Start Over”

It’s not just “tinfoil blogs” who (for the past 11 years) have been warning that a monetary reset is inevitable and the only viable fallback option once trust and faith in fiat is lost, is a gold standard (something which even Mark Carney hinted at recently): central banks are joining the doom parade now too.

An article published by the De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), or Dutch Central Bank, has shocked many with its claim that “if the entire system collapses, the gold stock provides a collateral to start over.”

 

While gloomy predictions of a monetary reset are hardly new, they have traditionally been relegated to the fringe of mainstream financial thought – after all, as Mario Draghi stated on several occasions in recent years, the mere contemplation of a “doomsday scenario” is enough to create the self-fulfilling prophecy which materializes it. As such, it is stunning to see a mainstream financial institution open up about the superior value of limited supply, non-fiat, sound money assets. It is also hypocritical given the diametrically opposed Keynesian practices regularly engaged in by central banks and official institutions worldwide: after all, just a few months back, the IMF published a paper bashing Germany’s adoption of the gold standard in the 1870s as the catalyst for instability in the global monetary system.

Fast forward to today, when the Dutch Central Bank is admitting not only did gold not destabilize the monetary system, but it will be its only savior when everything crashes.

The article, as loosely translated and titled “Goud van DNB” (“Gold from DNB”) states:

“If things go wrong, prices may fall. But, crisis or not, a gold bar always holds value.” This makes it the opposite of “shares, bonds and other securities” all of which have inherent risk.

Photo of gold bars from the DNB’s article “Goud van DNB.”

According to the IMF’s latest data, the DNB holds 615 tons (15,000 bars) of gold mainly in Amsterdam, with other stores in the U.K. and North America; the value of this gold reserve is over €6 billion ($6.62 billion). Calling gold the “trust anchor,” the article details briefly why the hard asset is so important to wealth building and the global economy, claiming: “Gold is… the trust anchor for the financial system. If the whole system collapses, the gold stock provides a collateral to start over. Gold gives confidence in the power of the central bank’s balance sheet.”

Why this sudden admission of what goldbugs have been saying for years? Perhaps it has to do with the fact that on October 7, the bank announced it would soon be moving a large part of its gold reserves to “the new DNB Cash Center at military premises in Zeist.”

Almost as if the Netherlands is preparing for the grand reset, and is moving its most valuable asset to a “military” installation just for that purpose.

As bitcoin.com tongue-in-cheek points out, “DNB is no stranger to playing along with the Keynesian, inflationary games of the global monetary system. A system which, according to some, is now more a Ponzi scheme based on force and blind faith than sound economic principle. That notwithstanding, the centralized financial powers of the world know the real score, and that’s why hard assets like gold are hoarded and locked down while everyday, individual residents of these geopolitical jurisdictions are encouraged to spend and spend, going further into debt to prop up ultimately unsound national economies.”

It is hardly a coincidence that in its preparation for monetary doomsday, the Dutsch Central Bank is also set to begin cracking down on crypto exchanges and wallets, stating that “firms offering services for the exchange between cryptos and regular money, and crypto wallet providers must register with De Nederlandsche Bank.”

While the push for greater KYC/AML transparency is a growing global trend, and is hardly surprising in a world in which trillions in assets reside in “tax-evading” offshore jurisdiction, the remarkable aspect of this latest crackdown against crypto – which many see as a modern, more efficient form of “gold” – is the fact that invasive regulations and restrictions by central banks can be seen as yet another means of stockpiling precious assets. This time, not gold bars, but bitcoin and crypto.

As for the timing of the “great monetary reset”, which other central banks have already quietly hinted at themselves amid massive repatriation of physical gold from the New York Fed to various European central banks such as Germany and Austria, we are confident that the trust-keepers of the current establishment – such as other central banks and the IMF – will be kind enough to provide ample advance notice to the citizens of the “developed” world to exchange their fiat into hard assets. Or, then again, perhaps not.

end
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0698/

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0704   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 34.23 POINTS OR 1.15%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 213.41 POINTS OR 0.81%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 246.89 POINTS OR 1.15%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.49/Euro FALLS TO 1.1024

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.18/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.21/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 53.54 and Brent: 59.41

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.46%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.91% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.21%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.35: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.44

3k Gold at $1490.54 silver at: 17.55   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 6/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.25

3m oil into the 53 dollar handle for WTI and 59 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.15 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9963 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0985 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.46%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.73% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.19%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.9329..

Futures Tumble, Stocks Slide As China Wants More Talks Before Signing “Phase One” Trade Deal

Who would have possibly thought that Friday’s “Phase One” trade deal with China wasn’t worth the paper it was signed on?

Oh wait, it wasn’t even signed, despite Trump’s tweeted assurance that the consequences of the deal with happen “immediately.”

Well, with futures initially rallying today in continuation of Friday’s sharp move higher, the rally first fizzled then futures tumbled just after 5am ET when Bloomberg reported that China wanted “further talks” as soon as the end of October to hammer out the details of the “phase one” trade deal touted by Trump before Xi Jinping agrees to sign it.

In other words, Friday wasn’t even Phase 1 – it was more like Phase 0.

As Bloomberg adds, Beijing may send a delegation led by China’s top negotiator, Liu He, to finalize a written deal that could be signed by the presidents at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit next month in Chile. Why the delay? Because as we wrote over the weekend in “It’s All About The December Tariffs Now: “These Negotiations Look Much More Difficult Than Phase 1“, China now wants Trump to also scrap a planned tariff hike in December in addition to the hike scheduled for this week, something the administration hasn’t yet endorsed.

Meanwhile, as we also detailed over the weekend, the details of the “verbal agreement” reached in Washington last week between the two nations remain unclear, with many pointing out that nothing of matter was actually achieved and that China was desperate for the US agri imports anyway to avoid starving its population and prevent a social uprising. While Trump hailed an increase in agricultural purchases as “the greatest and biggest deal ever made for our Great Patriot Farmers in the history of our Country,” China’s state-run media only said the two sides “agreed to make joint efforts toward eventually reaching an agreement.”

In any case, after initially trading higher following Friday’s late “sell the news” dump, futures reversed after rising to within 1.8% of a record close Friday and slumped to session lows as much as 0.4% after the report…

… while Europe’s Stoxx Europe 600 Index falls to session low, down as much as 1%, with rasic resources shares extending declines to as much as -2.8%, while banks remain as second-worst industry group, down 1.7%.

Stocks had climbed earlier from Sydney to Hong Kong, helping sustain a rally in emerging-market assets after after the positive conclusion of the latest round of trade talk. However, the latest negative trade deal news came after most of Asia had closed so expect all of this euphoria to be promptly unwound.

Add to this the unwind of the Brexit “hope” trade on Friday which saw cable explode higher amid optimism of a Brexit deal, as a result of murmurs of dissatisfaction from the EU and fears that Johnson’s ‘Queen’s Speech’ agenda might be voted down, becoming the first such loss for a government in 95 years, which rattled British markets, driving both the pound and British stocks lower, with the sterling down nearly 1% against the dollar at one point from a three month high, erasing a large swath of its gains from Thursday and Friday, its largest two-day rally in ten years.

UK PM Boris Johnson told his Cabinet on Sunday that a Brexit deal is achievable but added that that while a pathway to an agreement could be seen, there is still a significant amount of work required and the UK must be prepared to leave on Oct. 31st. Furthermore, it was also noted that EU negotiators warned his plans are not yet good enough to be the basis for an agreement, while it was also reported that Brussels is demanding further Brexit concessions from UK which has prompted warnings that a deal based on additional compromise would be rejected by Parliament. The main issues, following a briefing by EU Brexit Negotiator Barnier to the EU27 are: rebate system is complex, plans will not be ready for the end of the transition and it’s unclear how we can ensure goods for Northern Ireland remain in Northern Ireland. EU Source notes that a deal at the summit is very difficult, but not impossible.

With the US bond market closed for Columbus Day – it remains a mystery why equities trade today when the Treasury market is on vacation – traders bought what safe assets they could, and the dollar strengthened against all other G10 currencies except the Swiss franc and the yen as Brexit euphoria waned and investors waited for further progress on the trade front.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained for the first time in four days as risk-on trades are unwound, mostly to take profit, according to two traders in Europe. Haven-currency short positions were also trimmed by leveraged names during London hours; the yen hit a day high after a report that China wants further talks as soon as the end of October to hammer out the details of the “phase one” trade deal touted by Donald Trump before Xi Jinping agrees to sign it.

The Turkish lira tumbled as suddenly Erdogan finds himself in the middle of a diplomatic scandal where virtually every western power is bashing his invasion of northern Syria and Trump moments ago warned on Twitter that “big sanctions are coming!” sending the lira plunging to session lows.

Turkey’s stock market also tumbled as the U.S. and Europe increased threats to impose sanctions over the incursion into Syria.

Elsewhere, the yuan erased most of its earlier gains offshore.

The bottom line: investor skepticism to the “Phase 1” trade deal proved well-founded after Bloomberg reported that Beijing still wants to hammer out the fine print, with some sticking points remaining. Worse-than-expected September trade figures in China underscored the growing pressure on both Trump and President Xi Jinping to reach a deal to avert a wider slowdown in the global economy.

For those who missed it, overnight China reported that exports were down 3.2% yoy in September (USD terms), from a decline of 1.0% yoy in August, roughly in line with consensus expectations. Imports continued to soften, declining 8.5% yoy in September (v.s. -5.6% yoy in August), also below consensus expectations. In sequential terms, exports declined 0.3% mom sa non-annualized in September, down further from a contraction of 2.2% in August. Imports also extended the weakness by declining 2.3% mom sa non-annualized in September (vs. -0.9% mom sa in August). China’s trade surplus increased modestly to US$39.7bn in September from US$34.8bn in August.

Exports to the US posted a significantly larger year-on-year decline in September (-21.9% yoy in September v.s. -16.0% yoy in August) after the 15% US tariffs on around USD 125bn of goods went in place on September 1. Exports to Japan also contracted 5.0% yoy in September after a rebound in August. Exports to the EU and ASEAN both slowed as well to +0.1% yoy and +9.7% yoy in September (from +3.2% yoy and +11.2% yoy in August), respectively. Weakness in imports were widespread across major trade partners, particularly weak from the US (-15.7% yoy in September).

“Let’s not get carried away,” said Raoul Leering, head of international trade research at ING Bank NV. “There is a very tough journey ahead for the U.S. and Chinese negotiators to cut a deal that really has substance.”

And so with it becoming clear that nothing was resolved on the trade front, traders will be busy there as well as focusing on earnings season which begins tomorrow with big banks including JPMorgan, Goldman and Morgan Stanley.

In commodities, West Texas crude oil dropped after surging the most in almost a month on Friday.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.4% at 2,960.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 388.47
  • MXAP up 0.7% to 158.01
  • MXAPJ up 0.8% to 509.56
  • Nikkei up 1.2% to 21,798.87
  • Topix up 0.9% to 1,595.27
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 26,521.85
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 3,007.88
  • Sensex up 0.8% to 38,424.42
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 6,642.59
  • Kospi up 1.1% to 2,067.40
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.6 bps to -0.468%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1028
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.6 bps to 0.6%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.8 bps to 0.198%
  • Brent futures down 1.9% to $59.36/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,494.27
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 98.46

Top Overnight News

  • China wants further talks as soon as the end of October to hammer out the details of the “phase one” trade deal touted by Donald Trump before Xi Jinping agrees to sign it, according to people familiar with the matter
  • The pledges China and the U.S. made to keep prospects alive for a comprehensive trade deal did little to alter the deteriorating growth outlooks for both countries because they were sealed with something economists don’t trust: a handshake. China’s exports and imports shrank more than expected in September, as existing U.S. tariffs and the ongoing slowdown in global trade combined to undercut demand
  • Boris Johnson’s attempt to secure a Brexit deal ran into trouble after the European Union warned the talks were still a long way from a breakthrough and the British prime minister’s political allies distanced themselves from his plans
  • Euro-area industrial production rose more than expected in August, a rare bright spot in a downbeat picture for the currency bloc’s economy
  • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wants to finish the impeachment inquiry into Donald Trump before the heart of the 2020 election, but she will likely need to do it without help from federal courts, which could take months to resolve any fight over presidential stonewalling

Asian equity markets began the week on the front-foot as the region reacted to last week’s announcement of a US-China Phase 1 deal, in which China agreed to make between USD 40bln-50bln of agricultural purchases from the US and the latter will refrain from implementing the October 15th tariffs. This spurred a relief rally for the majors across the region with the ASX 200 (+0.6%) led by the energy sector as Santos shares surged from a deal to buy assets from ConocoPhillips, although gold miners suffered after the precious metal retreated further below the USD 1500/oz level. Hang Seng (+0.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.2%) were also lifted by the euphoria from President Trump’s deal announcement and suggestion that the sides were close to ending the trade war, with further violent protests in Hong Kong as well as weaker than expected Chinese Exports and Imports figures, doing little to dent the mood for Chinese stocks. As a reminder, Nikkei 225 was closed as Japan observed Health-Sports Day.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Imports, Exports Both Worse Than Expected in September
  • State Banks Sell Dollars to Ease Pain of Sanctions Risk for Lira
  • South Korea’s Moon Apologizes After Justice Minister Resigns
  • Singapore Central Bank Eases Policy as Economy Avoids Recession
  • H.K. Police Say Improvised Explosive Device Detonated Sunday

European stocks kicked the week off on the backfoot [Eurostoxx 50 -1.0%] as the US-China trade truce euphoria dissipated amid reports that China wants more talks before signing US’ “phase 1” deal and as Brexit angst further weighs on sentiment, with the prospect of a breakthrough deal between UK and EU seem further than previously thought. Thus, the UK banking names and housebuilders underperform with substantial losses seen in RBS (-2.4%), Lloyds Banking Group (-3.2%) and Barratt Developments (-2.1%) who all rest at the bottom of the FTSE 100 (-0.5%). Broad-based losses are seen across all other major bourses. Turning to sectors, Materials and Financials underperform, with the former weighed on by a recoil in base metal prices and sentiment and the latter due to a lower-yield environment and the aforementioned Brexit jitters. Meanwhile, defensive sectors fare slightly better due to the overall risk aversion in the market. In terms of individual movers; Swiss heavyweight pharma names Roche (-1.6%) and Novartis (-1.7%) are subdued by source reports that the US is mulling tariffs on the Swiss pharma sector to narrow the US trade deficit with the country. Meanwhile, Daimler (-1.2%) shares are hit on reports that the Co. is to recall hundreds of thousands of Mercedes-Benz vehicles amid diesel emission issues. On the flip side, Spain’s Ferrovial (+1.0%) remains near the top of the Stoxx 600 index as it is reportedly to bid for Spanish railway concessions with French National Railway Company.

Top European News

  • Johnson Stumbles in Bid for Brexit Deal as EU Demands Answers
  • Extinction Rebellion Takes Climate Fight to the Bank of England
  • Trichet Backs Draghi as QE Spat Becomes Battle Over ECB Legacy
  • Thoma Bravo Agrees to Buy U.K. Cyber Firm Sophos for $4 Billion
  • Catalan Leader Jailed for 13 Years for Attempt to Break Up Spain

In FX, the major underperformers after Friday’s arguably outsized and overextended gains on US-China trade and Irish border optimism or even hype, with latest Chinese trade data revealing weak internals and intensive weekend talks between the UK and EU not yielding positive results. Note also, latest reports suggest that China wants to discuss matters further with the US before signing off on Phase 1 of the deal agreed in principle last week. The Kiwi and Pound are propping up the G10 table, as Nzd/Usd slips back under 0.6300 and Cable retreats from just over 1.2705 towards 1.2550. The Aussie has also relinquished big figure-plus status vs its US counterpart, but holding above 0.6750 amidst supportive Aud/Nzd crosswinds within a 1.0760-20 range.

  • NOK/SEK – Soft oil prices and another shift in the tech landscape alongside fading risk appetite is weighing on the Scandi Crowns, with Eur/Nok bouncing ahead of 10.0000 and Eur/Sek back up over 10.8500 awaiting more top tier Swedish data this week in the form of jobs on Thursday.
  • EUR/CAD/CHF/JPY – The Euro and Loonie are both sticking to relatively tight lines against the Greenback between 1.1015-50 and around 1.3200 respectively, but the single currency deriving some underlying support via marginally firmer than forecast Eurozone ip in contrast to the latter that is also having to contend with the decline in crude noted above. Meanwhile, the traditional safe-havens that were roundly shunned last week have regained some poise alongside Gold as the Yen pares losses from circa 108.50 to almost 108.00 and the Franc rebounds through 0.9950 and 1.1000 against the Euro even though latest Swiss sight deposit balances infer ongoing official activity aimed at curbing Chf demand. Back to Eur/Usd, decent option expiries may keep the headline pair in check, as 1.1 bn roll off between 1.0995-1.1000 vs 1.5 bn from 1.1090 to 1.1100.
  • EM – The Lira continues to depreciate and slumped to 4 month lows against the Buck near 5.9200 on a negative mix of investor concerns about Turkey’s offensive in Northern Syria and the consequences of military action, such as sanctions. Moreover, data has also undermined the Try with a steeper deceleration in ip adding to the case for further CBRT easing ahead of next Thursday’s policy meeting.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures are mirroring the risk aversion in the market with both benchmarks down around USD 1.5/bbl on the day as further downside was exacerbated by reported that China wants more talks before committing to President Trump’s mini deal. The complex has been little influenced by news-flow during the European session thus far, although Russian president Putin is in Saudi Arabia for the first time in over a decade, with the two countries poised to sign a partnership agreement. On the OPEC front, sources stated that the OPEC+ compliance in September will be in excess of 200%, albeit this is mostly to account for the attack on Saudi oil facilities in early September. Meanwhile, Russian Energy Minister Novak said that Moscow is currently fully committed to the OPEC+ deal and there is no current discussion to alter it. ticking with OPEC, Kuwaiti energy ministry noted that it prefers oil prices around 50-70/bbl. Turning to Aramco, its chairman noted that the IPO could be carried out this month, whilst last week, WSJ noted that the Aramco IPO prospectus could be released by month-end. As a reminder, this week’s inventory data will be delayed by a day as the US observes Columbus Day, albeit this is a non-market holiday. Elsewhere, gold edged higher towards the 1500/oz mark on the aforementioned China news with the next level to the upside seen at 1507.30/oz (50 DMA). Meanwhile, copper prices retreated back below the 2.60/lb mark on the risk sentiment coupled with poor China import figures. Copper sees its next level to the downside at 2.5866/lb.

US Event Calendar

  • nothing scheduled

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

This time last week the chances of an imminent US/China trade deal and a Brexit agreement looked bleak. As London went home on Friday market euphoria had broken out on both. In addition the Fed announced a new $60bn/month liquidity injection, aimed at bills, which they are trying hard not to call it QE but will be seen as a liquidity boost nonetheless. Markets did come off their European closing highs on Friday as the reality sunk in that the US/China deal is very limited and won’t be signed for several weeks. Meanwhile the chances of a Brexit deal, whilst hugely increased, are by no means a slam dunk. The weekend news-flow on this has been more mixed but talks are ongoing.

If you’re looking to enhance your Brexit knowledge ahead of this very crucial week (when have we heard that before), and you like soft 70s disco then I have the perfect Venn diagram for you. There is a very amusing (and credible) new concept album just out called “The Hustle: A Brexit Disco Symphony” by Article 54. It includes such tracks as “Backstop”, “Canada Plus”, “Alternative Arrangements”, “Freedom of Movement”, “No Deal”, and my personal favourite “Let Go W.T.O.” It’s on most major streaming services if you want to tap your feet on your commute this morning.

I haven’t yet heard a concept album about the trade war so you’ll have to make do with just the facts. On Friday the US reached a “phase one” deal in principle with China. The deal suspends the planned increase in tariffs that was due to take effect tomorrow, and in return China will implement reforms to their intellectual property protections and their financial markets openness, and will also buy $40-50 billion of US agricultural goods. The deal also includes new FX transparency commitments, though it does not include anything related to the sanctions on Huawei. The S&P 500 fell around -0.71% after the deal was announced (still up over a percent as we’ll see below), as expectations had already moved to incorporate the reported deal. Since the ultimate announcement did not roll back any existing tariffs or suspend the planned new tariffs due in December, it at the margin fell short of some hopes. The commitments outside of agriculture also look a bit vague. However we’ve kicked some of the can down the road even if we’ve not got close to solving many of the bigger issues behind the conflict. Not many businesses that have been disturbed by the trade war will yet be able to see a clear pathway ahead. So uncertainty will remain. China’s response to the partial agreement has been fairly muted with the Ministry of Commerce merely saying in a statement that, “the two sides have made substantial progress” in a number of areas and “agreed to work together in the direction of a final agreement.”

In terms of more detail on Brexit, to enter the negotiating tunnel this past weekend has been a phenomenal achievement relative to where we were after the unusually hawkish U.K. briefing on the Johnson/Merkel call early last week and the leaked no.10 source that basically said the Tories would now campaign on a no deal Brexit and start reducing cooperation with the EU on a whole host of things including security (per Bloomberg). All this has been forgotten but the key might still be the DUP and noises over the weekend have been mixed on whether they can support a deal. It’s also not clear that a deal can be negotiated and cleared in time for October 31st even if the will is there. Barnier suggested yesterday that no significant progress was made over the weekend but that talks would continue. He reportedly said that the UK’s proposals for breaking the deadlock over the Irish border lacked detail and risked leaving the single market vulnerable to fraud (per Bloomberg). So talks on a knife edge. Sterling is back down -0.42% this morning after a very strong end to the week.

Details on the negotiations remain scant but the jist seems to be that NI stays in the U.K. customs union legally but in the EU’s in practical terms with rebates on offer to NI businesses from the U.K. government where there’s a misalignment of duties. Outside of the DUP the questions to ask would be how many Labour MPs would vote for this deal (if reached) and whether the hardline ERG are brought onside (more likely). I still think the nuclear move would be for the EU to say that if this deal isn’t agreed by MPs then there will be no extension. This would then put huge pressure on those MPs that want to remain, want a better deal, want to embarrass the government and/or want a second referendum. I’m not sure the EU would press that risky button but maybe Johnson will insist on it as part of the negotiations?

The focal point of the week will be the EU Council summit taking place on Thursday and Friday. Amidst the negotiations with the EU, the UK government will also be outlining its legislative programme for the coming session of Parliament in a Queen’s Speech today. Surreal timing given all that’s going on but it will effectively be an election manifesto. This all comes before a planned special sitting of Parliament , which is also the deadline set under the Benn Act, which says if MPs either haven’t approved a deal by that date, or explicitly approved leaving the EU without a deal, then the Prime Minister has to ask for a three-month extension to the Article 50 deadline, currently set for 31 October. So a bumpy path to a binary moment on Saturday. Our FX strategist became bullish on Sterling on Friday morning and target $1.35. They are slightly less concerned as to whether the deal passes as they think the latest developments mean that as a minimum the Tories should now campaign on their deal if they get voted down in Parliament. So they believe the next election will be based around a deal (if one hasn’t been reached) or a second referendum and that no deal risks have fallen.

Overnight, Asian markets are trading higher following Wall Street’s lead with the Hang Seng (+1.03% ), Shanghai Comp (+1.38%), and Kospi (+1.40%) all making advances along with most other markets. Japanese bourses are closed for a holiday and the onshore Chinese yuan is up +0.50% to 7.0539. Elsewhere futures on the S&P 500 are also up +0.29%. As for overnight data releases, China’s September trade balance came in at $39.65bn (vs. $34.75bn expected) as the decline in imports (at -8.5% yoy vs. -6.0% yoy expected) was sharper than the decline in exports (at -3.2% yoy vs. -2.8% yoy expected). In terms of trade with the US, exports declined c. -22% yoy while imports declined by c. -16% yoy.

Turning to geo-politics, Bloomberg reported over the weekend that EU governments are pledging to coordinate on imposing an arms embargo on Turkey and are discussing other possible sanctions. Meanwhile, France and Germany called for an immediate halt to Turkey’s offensive in Syria, with President Macron and Chancellor Merkel meeting yesterday evening to coordinate. Elsewhere, US president Trump tweeted that ‘Dealing with @LindseyGrahamSC and many members of Congress, including Democrats, about imposing powerful Sanctions on Turkey. Treasury is ready to go, additional legislation may be sought. There is great consensus on this. Turkey has asked that it not be done. Stay tuned!’. Overngiht, we also got reports that the Turkish army captured Tal Abyad, a strategic town, while reaching its target of penetrating as deep as 30-35 kilometers (19-22 miles) into Syria. Meanwhile Syrian President Bashar al-Assad sent troops to the country’s northeast in response to a Turkish offensive, raising risks of an escalation. The Turkish lira is down -0.22% this morning but the situation remains live (per Bloomberg).

Moving onto this week now before recapping the numbers from last. Even outside of Brexit it’s going to be busy culminating with global policymakers gathering in Washington for the IMF and World Bank’s annual meetings. The latest IMF world outlook is out tomorrow which will attract lots of headlines. There will be lots of talk around this as to whether the global economy is at risk of slipping into recession. Obviously the trade deal will reduce some of the risk but many will feel it’s too little too late and won’t remove a lot of the uncertainties. Elsewhere China’s Q3 GDP release (Friday) should give us a further indication of how the economy is being affected by trade issues. Other data releases to watch out for include US retail sales (Wednesday) and industrial production (Thursday), Germany’s ZEW survey (tomorrow), today’s Euro Area IP and the start of US earnings season. Momentum will start tomorrow with the highlights including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, JPMorgan, BlackRock, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo and UnitedHealth Group. On Wednesday, Bank of America, Netflix, IBM and Abbott Laboratories will all be reporting. Thursday sees Morgan Stanley, Philip Morris, Honeywell International and Union Pacific release earnings, while on Friday we have Coca-Cola and American Express. Meanwhile also in the US, with over a year to go until the presidential election next November, another Democratic primary debate will be taking place on Tuesday. 12 candidates will appear on a single night, including the polling frontrunners, former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren.

Last week’s trading was dominated by two parallel themes: the Brexit negotiations and the US-China trade war. At the start of the week, things looked ominous on both fronts, and equity markets started out in the red. However, by Thursday and Friday, optimism had resurfaced on both fronts, buoying risk appetite and sending equities higher. The S&P 500 gained +0.62% (+1.09% Friday) to snap a three week losing streak. The DOW (+0.91% on the week, +1.21% Friday) and NASDAQ (+0.93% and +1.34% Friday) gained similarly, with banks (+1.19% and +1.63% Friday) and transport firms (+2.61% and +2.23% Friday) pacing the gains. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 gained +3.00% (+2.31% Friday) for its best week since February. Safe havens fell, with gold down -1.11% (-0.40% Friday). Ten-year bond yields rose +20.7bps, +26.2, and +14.4bps in the US, UK, and Germany (+6.8, +11.7, +2.7bps Friday). The US yield curve steepened +2.3bps (+2.1bps Friday), taking it to 14.3bps, as front-end yields rose more moderately. 12-month bill yields ended the week +5.6bps (+1.5bps), falling -4.2bps from their highs on Friday after the Fed announced that they will buy $60 billion of bills per month through at least Q2 next year, to boost reserve balances and prevent volatility in money markets.

As for the substance of the two main drivers, the breakthrough on the Brexit front was the surprise positive talks between the UK and Ireland, and by extension with the EU27. The pound rallied +2.57% on the week, its best weekly performance in over two years (+1.81 Friday).

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 34.23 POINTS OR 1.15%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 213.41 POINTS OR 0.81%   /The Nikkei closed UP 246.89 POINTS OR 1.15%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .53%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0698 /Oil DOWN TO 53.54 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.41 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0698 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8834 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

 

The truth begin the China/USA trade deal.   In a nutshell it will not help the USA deficit one bit

(courtesy Joseph Carson/Global Economic Research)

Trade Negotiations: US Agrees To A Farm Package, Not Trade Deal With China

Submitted by Joseph Carson, Former Director of Global Economic Research, Alliance Bernstein

After 18 months of negotiations, the trade talks ended with the US achieving very little. It is wrong to call this a “trade” deal, let alone a “substantial ” one since the focus, almost exclusively, of the Trump Administration has been to reduce the trade imbalance and the agreement on farm purchases accomplishes little. It is also wrong to call it a trade “truce” since outstanding tariffs are still in place and future tariffs have not been rescinded. As such, Phase 1 of trade talks ended with many issues unsettled, leaving businesses and investors unsure on what lies ahead.

According to press reports, China has agreed to increase its purchases of US farm products up to $40 to $50 billion, although no timeline was offered. The US agreed to postpone a planned increase in tariffs scheduled to take effect on October 15, but let stand existing tariffs and did not remove the planned tariffs to take effect in December. Both sides agree to establish new rules to prevent currency manipulation (although the US designation of China as a currency manipulator still stands). Finally, it is reported that “progress” (no details) was made on intellectual property protection.

Remove for a second the two countries that are involved in these trade negotiations and just look at what has been announced. Country B has agreed to purchase $40 to $50 billion in farm products from Country A. On the surface, it would suggest that the bi-lateral trade deficit between the two countries is largely centered in agricultural goods and Country A has a comparative advantage (or a surplus) in farm (agricultural) goods. None of that is true.

 

In 2018, the bilateral merchandise trade deficit between US and China totaled $419 billion. Yet, trade in farm or agricultural goods reduced the overall trade deficit between the US and China. In 2018, the US exported $9.3 billion of agricultural goods to China and imported $4.9 billion, recording a small surplus of $4.4 billion in farm products.

In 2018, the gross output of the US farm sector totaled $380 billion, or about 1% of the gross output of all industries. Roughly one-third, or $133 billion of farm products were exported to all trading partners. Even if the US directed all of its agricultural exports to China it would only reduce the bilateral trade deficit by one-third. But that would not result in a lower overall US deficit as it merely increases, by a like amount, the US deficit with the rest of the world. In other words, shifting the direction of farm exports does not solve the US overall trade imbalance.

None of this is meant to downplay the important role of the farm economy, or to overlook the hardship the farm sector has experienced during the trade dispute between US and China.

Yet, the bilateral trade imbalance between the US and China involves many factors and the US needs to break away from the zero-sum thinking on China trade, because at the moment it is harming not helping US growth prospects.

Meanwhile, Chinese exports to the US are tumbling…

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Lagarde will have a problem in one year as the ECB will have reached its buying limits

(zerohedge)

ECB Has One Year Of German Debt To Buy Before Hitting Limits

One month ago, when the ECB’s Mario Draghi announced the return of “QEternity”, or open-ended bond purchases, as his parting gift (he leaves the ECB in just over two weeks) skeptics – such as this website – were quick to note that no such thing as open-ended QE can exist in a continent that is constrained by the amount of outstanding bonds that the ECB can monetize (and where Germany is coming up with such ridiculous fiscal acrobatics as “fighting climate change” to get the public to agree to issue more debt which the ECB could then monetize).

Specifically, as we noted in September, assuming the  proposed €20bn/month in QE, and assuming a split of €5bn in corporate bonds and the balance in sovereign, QE can run for roughly 9 months under current limits when it comes to the most “limiting” European asset: German bunds.

Now, about 4 weeks after we first warned, Reuters is out with its own analysis, cautioning that the ECB can buy just over one year’s worth of German bonds under its new asset-purchase program and will have to bend its own rules to keep the scheme running longer, “risking fresh internal and legal conflict.”

As extensively reported, the ECB decided last month to restart buying debt indefinitely, less than a year after it ended its last QE operation, in the process opening a rift in a normally collegial Governing Council, where most of the “core” central bankers rebelled against the outgoing Italian despot, as conservative policymakers felt they had been strong-armed into a scheme that will be difficult impossible to manage and exit.

Opponents of the ECB’s new round of bond purchases — which included Europe’s biggest and wealthiest countries, France, Germany, and the Netherlands — argued that the purchases should have been an emergency tool, and that indefinite buying will conflict with the safeguards the ECB set up to keep it legal. It would also deplete what little ammo the ECB had in case a real crisis hit as rates in Europe are already deeply negative.

Meanwhile, under existing ECB safeguards the central bank’s own hands will soon be tied how much debt it can buy should the economy fail to rebound. Those safeguards include buying no more one third of each country’s debt and buying bonds according to each country’s shareholding in the ECB, commonly known as the capital key.

And here, Reuters confirms what we wrote last month, calculating that if both rules are strictly followed, just over one year’s worth of eligible German bonds are left on the market. A similar calculation by Jefferies, found that at a €3.7BN in monthly Bund purchases, would mean the ECB runs out of eligible German bonds to buy in 11 months (and Dutch bonds in 6 months), assuming the 33% issuer limit remains intact.

That will force the ECB’s new president, Christine Lagarde, who left her current organization crippled by the ongoing bailout of Argentina where the IMF has sunk a record $50+ billion, to solve a virtually impossible problem created by her predecessor (some have speculated that the criminally indicted former IMF head was picked specifically so she can be the fall guy, or rather fall gal).

To delay hitting this wall, policymakers would prefer “bending” the capital key and buying fewer German bonds rather than changing the issuer limit, two Reuters sources said, although it was unclear who else in Europe can issue enough bonds to offset the shrinking German supply.
The ECB has already deviated from the capital key in the past. By sticking to this practice, the ECB could buy German bonds “beyond a year,” a fifth source, familiar the ECB’s decision-making, said.

Deviating from the capital key – something the ECB has frequently done in the past – does not have direct legal implications, so it would be easier to defend in a court of law, where the program has already been challenged by a group of German academics. But it could be politically risky, since it would put Germany, the biggest opponent of the program, at a disadvantage. On the other hand, Bunds are already trading at near record negative yields so would anyone even notice?

Still, it would take time for any divergence to become significant, and the ECB can argue that past purchases also deviated as the bank sucked up extra debt in Italy, Spain and France to make up for countries where it could not buy.

The ECB’s holdings of Italian, Spanish and French debt are currently 8.4%, 7.4% and 3.9% above their quotas, according to Reuters calculations, which exclude Greece because it is not eligible for purchases. The problem is that the share of German debt is already 1.3% percent behind the capital key, an argument for some that the ECB is bankrolling profligate countries at the expense of virtuous Germany. Indeed, as the table below shows, the ECB has been overbuying French, Italian and Spanish debt at the expense of German, Dutch, Portuguese and Slovak debt:

But as Reuters notes, the capital key is supposed to apply to the stock of government bonds, now totaling 2.1 trillion euros on the ECB’s balance sheet. So it will take time for the new government bond purchases, which are likely to be in the region of 15 billion euros a month if history is anything to go by, to affect the total in a material way.

Meanwhile, even though the European Court of Justice has already cleared the bond purchases, dismissing a challenge by the German academics, it said that safeguards, such as the ECB’s self-imposed rules, are necessary to ensure the bank does not finance governments, a major taboo under European law.

As such, changing the issuer limit further could fuel a fresh legal challenge, and the ECB’s legal committee has already highlighted this risk, the Financial Times reported earlier. German complainants, headed by the Berlin professor Markus Kerber, have indicated that the new bond purchase change the nature of the program, so courts should have a fresh look.

One other possible option is for the ECB to buy more private-sector debt to rely less on government bonds, although Reuters sources there was little appetite for this.

As a reminder, two years ago the ECB was badly burnt on the bonds it purchased by scandal-hit South African retailer Steinhoff in earlier purchases. Separately, many in the Governing Council argue that a bigger presence in the private-sector market would unduly lower risk perception.

Still, any method to prolong German purchases only buys the ECB a limited amount of time before the issuer limit is reached.

The bottom line is that the ECB’s new incoming head, Christine Lagarde will have just months to solve this problem. The good news is that Lagarde, assuming she keeps her job, will never have to worry about hiking rates. The market does not expect that to happen until 2025 at the very earliest… if ever.

end

UK

the pound weakens as a Brexit deal looks dim//Hard Brexit??

(zerohedge)

Pound Weakens As Brexit Deal Prospects Dim

Reports of a conciliatory meeting with Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar help Boris Johnson revive hopes that a Brexit deal might actually get done, now that Johnson had seemingly won over Varadkar, whose increasing clout within the EU27 might help win over enough support to clinch a deal.

The pound rallied to its strongest level in three months on the news. But on Monday, with much of the US away from their desks for the federal Columbus Day holiday, murmurs of dissatisfaction from the EU and fears that Johnson’s ‘Queen’s Speech’ agenda might be voted down, becoming the first such loss for a government in 95 years, rattled British markets, driving both the pound and British stocks lower.

At one point, sterling was down nearly 1% against the dollar, erasing a large swath of its gains from Thursday and Friday, its largest two-day rally in ten years.

Over the weekend, EU Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, whom Johnson’s government has criticized as being too difficult to work with, told a meeting of envoys on Sunday that the UK’s proposal for breaking the deadlock over the Irish Backstop lacked detail and risked leaving the single market vulnerable to fraud, BBG reports.

Analysts said the market was driven by the waning euphoria surrounding the prospects for a deal.

“After the best two-day rally in 10 years, sterling euphoria as regards the prospects of an imminent deal is wearing off,” said Jeremy Stretch, head of Group-of-10 currency strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. “The prospects of a deal have dimmed from the extremes seen on Friday.”

Another analyst noted that, whatever the outcome, traders should know within a couple of days whether there’s a shot at a deal during this weekend’s EU Council summit, widely seen as the last opportunity to hammer out a detailed agreement.

“We should know today or tomorrow whether it’s going to be possible to have a deal together before the EU Leaders’ Summit at the end of the week,” TD Securities’ strategists including Richard Kelly wrote in a note. “Boris Johnson has a very tough balancing act ahead in trying to keep the Democratic Unionist Party onside, but also come up with something that works for the EU.”

But Johnson will be forced to balance his deal wrangling with ‘the Queens Speech’ early this week. During the grand ceremony, Johnson will unveil his conservative government’s legislative agenda, including 22 pieces of legislation that the FT says have little hope of making it into law.

Unfortunately for the Tories, Johnson lost his working majority last month when 21 moderate MPs were expelled from the Conservative Party for supporting parliamentary efforts to stop a no-deal Brexit, which is one reason some fear the agenda could be voted down in an unprecedented embarrassment for the Johnson government.

But successfully pitching his agenda to the country is seen by insiders as critical to a Tory majority returning in any upcoming snap election, which is looking increasingly likely.

According to the FT, while the speech is supposed to focus on domestic issues, Brexit will still be a major theme, with the Queen expected to say that her government intends to “Get Brexit Done” by the Oct. 31 deadline. The speech will also likely raise the timing of a withdrawal agreement bill, the final step needed to pass any new Brexit deal through Parliament.

The Queen’s Speech, which will open a new session of Parliament, is expected to begin at around 2:30 pm London Time on Monday.

Here’s some more about the formalities surrounding the speech, according to one Twitter user.

Alice Lilly@aliceolilly

There is a lot of pomp and circumstance around the Queen’s Speech- and much of this is tradition, but there is also some important symbolism, particularly around the relationship between the monarch and Parliament

Some particularly interesting/fun things:

Alice Lilly@aliceolilly

So, for example, Black Road (sent as a messenger to summon MPs to the Lords to hear the Speech) has the door of the Commons slammed in their face and has to bang it several times before they are allowed in- a way of asserting the Commons’ independence

Alice Lilly@aliceolilly

Later today, after the Speech, the Commons and Lords will give a purely symbolic first reading to two bills (the Outlawries Bill in the Commons and the Select Vestries Bill in the Lords). Neither bill progresses any further nor is intended to ever become law…

Alice Lilly@aliceolilly

But they have an important symbolic purpose, of asserting Parliament’s ability to consider other matters before turning to the Queen’s Speech- another way of emphasising their independence from the monarch

Alice Lilly@aliceolilly

My favourite tradition, though is the taking of the parliamentary hostage. To ensure the safe return of the monarch from Parliament, an MP (usually the Vice-Chamberlain, a govt whip) is kept at Buckingham Palace until the Queen returns from Parliament. This is *purely symbolic!*

Alice Lilly@aliceolilly

And dates back hundreds of years to the, er, more fraught periods in Parliament/monarch relations.

Supposedly the “hostage” is kept well-entertained at the Palace and it’s all perfectly nice- it really is just symbolic these days

Alice Lilly@aliceolilly

It’s easy to find all of this quite amusing-and to question how all these traditions make Parliament look in the modern world- BUT also worth remembering that these things do have quite important symbolism

Though deal optimism faded on Monday, at least one major investment bank stood by its projections from last week. Goldman Sachs still sees a 60% chance of a Brexit deal, a 15% of a “no deal” Brexit, and a 25% chance of no Brexit at all.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Iran

Who fired upon Iran’s cargo ship?

 

Luongo analyzes the situation

(Tom Luongo)

Luongo: Pompeo Can’t Blame Iran For Attacking Itself

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

“You’re gonna need a bigger boat”

–JAWS

Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water someone poked a couple of holes in an oil tanker belonging to Iran.

This sent oil prices up briefly in the vain hope of stabilizing them.

But, strangely, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was silent.

This was a warning to Iran from someone on the Saudi/Israeli/U.S. side, “You won’t win without costs.”

Well, of course, that’s true. The big question everyone is asking is, of course, “Who did this?”

Details are sketchy with a lot of back and forth. Iran initially reported missile strikes.

Press TV

@PressTV

Report: Explosion in tanker has set vessel on fire near port city of .

Embedded video

But Iran’s national tanker company, the owner of the boat, is now ruling out missiles.

But who did this is honestly not even relevant at this point. It could be Israel, the Saudis, rogue U.S. or British agents, etc.

Once we started down this path of sanctions, attacks on oil assets, and the like, it opened up the possibility of anyone with an axe to grind creating an incident for their purposes and blaming someone else for it.

There are so many conflicting priorities on all sides of this issue that all it takes is the right suitcase of money to start a war, or spike oil prices for a few hours, or whatever.

I can spin a dozen motivations out of my head right now whereby everyone involved has motive to attack an Iranian tanker. And they would all sound plausible, including the one that you know Mike Pompeo is just itching to waddle away from the buffet table to announce, that Iran attacked itself.

And the less that evangelical crazy-man says about this, the better everyone will be. In fact, it is Pompeo’s silence is deafening, since he never misses an opportunity to bash Iran. It makes you wonder just how much he may or may not know about this.

But honestly, that’s just me pushing boundaries.

The reality is that Occam’s Razor is the most useful tool in this situation.

The people squawking the loudest about the President’s recent policy decisions in the Middle East are the ones most likely behind this. They are the ones with the most to lose if Saudi Arabia falls and the U.S. pulls much of its force out of the Middle East.

The most likely candidate is the one actor who has consistently overstepped its bounds in attacking neighbors it considers hostile for any reason. Israel.

The headlines this week have been wall-to-wall gnashing of teeth and pearl clutching over the fate of the Kurds in Northern Syria, left to the tender mercies of the Turks.

And that has been coming most forcefully from the gaggle of AIPAC drones that inhabit the D.C. Swamp.

But the reality is that the partitioning of Syria has been a U.S. neoconservative project from the beginning of the civil war. Israel has given aid and comfort to ISIS fighters along the Golan Heights. This is not news, folks.

And the use of the Kurds to destabilize not only Syria but Iraq, Iran and Turkey by outside actors, like the U.S., Saudi Arabia and YES, Israel, is well established.

Pompeo has helped preside over sending the Kurds more than 30,000 truckloads of weapons. Who paid for those weapons, by the way?

We did.

How many of these SDF fighters are nothing more than foreign mercenaries paid by us to hold strategic areas of Syria– the oil fields and the border crossings –to starve Assad out of power?

It’s been long established that the U.S. presence in Syria is unsustainable. But who keeps the pressure on Trump politically to maintain the situation?

Israel.

There comes a point where the evidence of influence is overwhelming and the state of the game board so degraded that it’s time for someone to make a bold call and change tactics.

If the neocons and Israeli Firsters in Congress (and formerly in his cabinet) have turned on Trump to the point of starting impeachment proceedings against him for not going to war with Iran, then Trump is free to finally just blow it all wide open.

Which is exactly what he is doing. The Kurds were simply mercenaries to help us defeat ISIS. Job’s done, your beef with Turkey is your problem.

Remember that Russia’s intervention in Syria outed who was really behind the coalition to overthrow President Assad and when Turkey’s Erdogan was framed into a fight with Russia, shooting down an SU-24 in November 2015, Erdogan realized he would be the scapegoat for the entire operation and swiftly began changing his tune.

Don’t you think Trump can see the same setup happening here now with the Kurds?

They jumped the gun on impeachment. They didn’t neuter Trump, they unleashed him. Because he simply has nothing left to lose.

Today that shift by Erdogan has culminated in his securing Northeastern Syria from Kurdish forces whose sole intention was to sow dissent and try and form an independent state, the dreams of which died with Barzani’s Peshmerga Forces getting routed at Erbil in 2017.

Everything since then has been a delaying action. Trump was willing to go along if he could get Iran to the table on nuclear weapons. Putin and Erdogan prevailed on Trump to do a double deal. Turkey would give up support of Al-Qaeda in Idlib and the U.S. would begin pulling support for the Kurds in eastern Syria.

Syria can begin normalizing and the Saudis and Israelis will have to face up to the need to sue for peace.

But that means the end of the dream to partition Syria and striking Iran. Trump beginning to pull U.S. forces out of harm’s way is the surest way to ensure there isn’t another accident which sets us on the path to war.

So, to me, it makes perfect sense to see rogue elements around the region acting independently to try and revive the war footing while cynically supporting a collapsing oil price.

It’s clear that no one in the U.S. or Saudi Arabian power circles wants oil collapsing below $50 per barrel. The Russians and the Iranians don’t care, they trade oil now mostly outside the dollar and their currencies immunize them to the fluctuations.

Trump watches the stock market like a hawk and the Saudis watch the price of Brent like their lives depend on it, because they do.

So, some noises that talks are good and an attack on Iran’s tankers are good for oil prices. An end to the trade war (very unlikely) and Iran bowing to U.S. demands to stop exporting oi (even less likely) is doing nothing more than creating yet another opportunity to short oil.

That’s the legacy of the chaos created by making terrible decisions intervening in other people’s affairs. That’s why it really doesn’t matter who attacked the Iranian tanker. It was a bad move. All it does it convince Trump further that it’s time to get out of the way and cut bait.

The Saudis and the Israelis are harboring huge and ancient grudges against Iran that can no longer be tolerated in U.S. political circles. This is crippling U.S. politics.

Regardless of who actually attacked this tanker their collective grudge and control over the corridors of power in the U.S. is the fuel that keeps these conflicts ongoing.

Trump, to his credit, is now finally voicing and acting on his long-held beliefs that the Iraq War was a mistake, that Syria is an Obama/Clinton quagmire and that Russia has a strong role to play in cleaning up their messes.

And the less we listen to the cries of anguish from “the usual suspects” the quicker we can back away from war.

*  *  *

Join My Patreon if you believe telling the truth is the only goal worth pursuing (and bacon). Download and Install Brave if you want to retain some privacy while doing so.

END
SUNDAY  9 am
TURKEY/SYRIA/USA
Trump orders complete withdrawal from Syria and Turkey fires upon the USA “unintentionally”.  USA forces were bracketed by Turkey and with their firing at the USA bases, Trump had no choice but to withdraw.  It seems that the Syrian Democratic forces have made a deal with Damascus to counterattack Turkey in the North. The USA is planning sanctions on Turkey.
(zerohedge)

Trump Orders Full Withdrawal From Northern Syria, Warns Sanctions On Turkey “Ready To Go”

Defense Secretary Mark Esper told “Face the Nation” in a Sunday interview that the Trump administration is “preparing to evacuate” about 1,000 U.S. troops from northern Syria “as safely and quickly as possible,” CBS reports.

“In the last 24 hours, we learned that [the Turks] likely intend to extend their attack further south than originally planned, and to the west,” Esper said. “We also have learned in the last 24 hours that the…SDF are looking to cut a deal, if you will, with the Syrians and the Russians to counterattack against the Turks in the north.”

 

Image via the AP

This as President Trump has also announced the US Treasury is “ready to go” with sanctions on Turkey

This also comes after a week ago Trump ordered the withdrawal of US troops from northern border posts ahead of a Turkish military incursion to establish a so-called ‘safe zone’. That decision has been met with fierce push back among Congressional leaders and pundits, angry at the US “betrayal” of its Syrian Kurdish partners, namely the US-funded and trained Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

In his comments to “Face the Nation,” set to air on Sunday, Esper further explained that American forces were now caught between the Turkish assault and the SDF.

“And so we find ourselves, we have American forces likely caught between two opposing advancing armies, and it’s a very untenable situation,” Esper said. “So I spoke with the president last night, after discussions with the rest of the national security team, and he directed that we begin a deliberate withdrawal of forces from northern Syria.”

Face The Nation

@FaceTheNation

WATCH: .@EsperDoD on the planned evacuation of U.S. troopers in northern Syria.
“I spoke with the president last night after discussions with the rest national security team and he directed that we begin a deliberate withdrawal of forces from northern Syria.”

Embedded video

Following a Friday incident wherein Turkish artillery shells landed near US positions in Kobani, Pentagon officials accused Turkey of deliberately “bracketing” American forces by firing on both sides of the observation post.

While Turkey claimed it was a ‘mistake,’ US officials said Ankara had known about that specific base for months and that it could have only been intentional.

Esper said on Sunday that US troops “have the right to self defense and we will execute it if necessary” when asked about the incident and future rules of engagement.

Meanwhile Trump tweeted early Sunday: “Very smart not to be involved in the intense fighting along the Turkish Border, for a change. Those that mistakenly got us into the Middle East Wars are still pushing to fight. They have no idea what a bad decision they have made. Why are they not asking for a Declaration of War?”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Very smart not to be involved in the intense fighting along the Turkish Border, for a change. Those that mistakenly got us into the Middle East Wars are still pushing to fight. They have no idea what a bad decision they have made. Why are they not asking for a Declaration of War?

For now it’s unlikely that this means all American forces will make a complete exit from Syria.

When pressed on a timeline for the pullback, Esper merely said it would be done “as safely and quickly as possible”; but given US forces appear to be in the line of Turkish artillery fire, a pullback will no doubt come sooner than later — if not occurring already.

end
Sunday 4 pm
Turkey/Syria
Now the Syrian army of Damascus is heading for the besieged Kurdish towns as Erdogan warns that the conflict between the two armies may escalate. Russia makes its “deal of the century” by standing by its ally Syria and claiming that Syria must be free of all foreign elements and that includes Turkey.
(zerohedge)

Turkey Warns Of War As Syrian Army Heads To Turkish Border

update2: A top Turkish official warns of bigger escalation now that Syrian Army units appear to be heading to besieged Kurdish towns along the border with Turkey.

Erdogan aide Yasin Aktay has said “conflict between the two armies” is likely if pro-Assad forces enter the northeast region which has now been abandoned by US troops.

Ali Özkök@Ozkok_A

‘s adviser Yasin Aktay spoke to the Russian news agency Sputnik Arabic:

“If the Syrian Army tries to enter the northeast of , will resist. It may come to a conflict between the two armies.”

* * *

update: It’s official, after what appears a major deal between the Kurdish-led SDF and Damascus was struck in the wake of a US exit from the region: 

“Syrian military forces will be deployed on the border with Turkey by tomorrow morning in certain areas,” reports Danny Makki, a well-known war correspondent in Damascus. 

This as multiple videos have spread online showing pro-Damascus forces entering Manbij:

Sotiri Dimpinoudis@sotiridi

: Also another video of this Syrian Arab Army convoy advancing near into with tanks also spotted in this convoy to help and forces drive the Turkish aggression out of .

Embedded video

Erdogan has reportedly vowed that pro-Turkish forces will continue their advance despite the Syrian Army apparently coming to the defense of besieged Kurdish forces.

Danny Makki@Dannymakkisyria

What we know so far about Syrian army deployment in N. so far
All to be entered this evening

Reports of gradual control within 48 hours

It’s as yet unclear what the Russian military’s role in supporting its Syrian ally will be; however, we could be witnessing the beginnings of Putin’s ‘deal of the century’ unfolding, as we explained previously.

Joshua Landis

@joshua_landis

Putin is capitalizing on the chaotic retreat of the US & Turkey’s brutality toward the Kurds in order to assert Russia’s leadership. He contrasts how Russia has stood beside its beleaguered ally, Syria, while the US has abandoned both its allies, the Kurds and the Turks. https://twitter.com/ivan8848/status/1183009437742747648 

ivan@ivan8848

PUTIN: ¨Syria must be free from other states military presence and the and territorial integrity the Syrian Arab Republic must be completely restored. ¨#Syria #Kurds #Turkey #OperationSpringPeace

Embedded video

But Russia is most definitely a lead player in the Damascus-YPG (and SDF) reunion that now appears to be unfolding.

Danny Makki@Dannymakkisyria

now confirmed as the chief power-broker in https://twitter.com/JennyCafarella/status/1183455113991655425 

Jennifer Cafarella

@JennyCafarella

Replying to @JennyCafarella

Negotiations at #Russia‘s Hmeimim Airbase in Latakiahttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-turkey-kurds-damascus/exclusive-damascus-kurdish-led-sdf-held-talks-at-russian-airbase-kurdish-politician-idUSKBN1WS0MY 

* * *

A huge development after earlier in the day Sunday Defense Secretary Mark Esper announced Trump has ordered a “deliberate withdrawal” of 1,000 US troops in northeast Syria amid the advancing Turkish incursion: sources close to the Syrian government have announced  the Syrian Army will move in to assist Kurdish militias in Kobani and Manbij.

This after shocking statements over the weekend by the head of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Mazlum Abdi, who told CNN, “I’ve been holding myself for two days from going to the press and saying that America abandoned us and that I would like you to get out of our areas now so that I can invite Russian and [Syrian] regime planes to take over this airspace.”

 

Syrian Army, via AFP/Getty

Reuters now reports on the significant development which could see the Turkish and Syrian armies enter into direct confrontation: “The Lebanese broadcaster al-Mayadeen said on Sunday the Syrian army would deploy within 48 hours to the town of Kobani which is held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and the nearby town of Manbij which is controlled by SDF-aligned forces.”

“The Syrian Governmental Forces (SAA) are preparing to enter the region of Kobani today, based on an agreement with the Syrian Democratic Forces,” Syrian official Mohammed Shaheen, was cited as saying.

As early as last week the SDF was reportedly engaged in intensifying talks with Damascus over assistance from the Syrian Army, after the US withdrew its air support for the Kurdish-led group amid the Turkish assault.

On Monday the commander of the US trained and armed SDF, Mazlum Abdi, indicated just that in a bombshell statement:“We are considering a partnership with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, with the aim of fighting Turkish forces.”

Though Damascus has yet to confirm an official deal with YPG/SDF forces, state-run SANA did say on Sunday that national forces were moving north to “confront” Turkish forces and its “aggression”.

Military analysis site, The Defense Post, reports on the potential direct cooperation between the Syrian Army and SDF to push out the Turks:

Kobani official General Ismet Sheikh Hasan said that Russian and Syrian government troops could enter Kobani and Manbij by Sunday night to help secure the cities from a Turkish incursion.

“We did everything we could,” he said. “We have called upon the West [and] the Arab Union but no one is coming to help, so we have no one other than ourselves to defend [Kobani]. Kurdish youth should come and defend their homes, and people should not abandon their homes – this is our land. It looks like this is the fate of the Kurds, to go through this each time.”

Babak Taghvaee@BabakTaghvaee

: Official statement of Arab Army: Soon, the will enter , & other cities to prevent their fall into hands of backed terrorists. They will also confront terrorists in Ras al-Ayn & Tal Abyad. defends the Kurds against

Embedded video

Damascus officials had subsequently denied that it was engaged in a wide-ranging deal, however, Sunday’s reported development of Syrian Army forces to the north could be the beginning of a more significant deal in the words.

The United States has blocked such talks and cooperation for years, but the White House now appears ready to wash its hands of the matter.

end
Russia/Syria/Turkey
With the uSA now out, Putin’s “deal of the Century” is now unfolding as they try and broker a deal between Damascus and Turkey, soething that Erdogan promised that he would never do.
(zerohedge)

“Compromise Or Genocide”: Putin’s ‘Deal Of The Century’ Rapidly Unfolding In Syria

“Putin is capitalizing on the chaotic retreat of the US and Turkey’s brutality toward the Kurds in order to assert Russia’s leadership,” Syria analyst Joshua Landis observed of a newly published Vladimir Putin interview“He contrasts how Russia has stood beside its beleaguered ally, Syria, while the US has abandoned both its allies, the Kurds and the Turks,” Landis added.

Putin said in the interview: “Syria must be free from other states’ military presence. And the territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic must be completely restored.”

Given this weekend’s rapidly unfolding events, with state actors Turkey and the Syrian Army squaring up on front lines, Russia’s role in all this is probably still the greatest unknown, but what do we know at this point?

 

File image via Reuters

Precisely one week since Trump first unveiled a US troop exit from northeast Syria while essentially giving a green light to invading Turkish forces, events are unfolding at blistering speed, possibly toward a major Syrian Army clash with pro-Turkish forces, and no doubt toward a complete and final American withdrawal from Syria altogether.

Currently Syrian Army convoys  including tanks and artillery — have begun deployment to northern Syrian battlefronts at a moment US troops have been confirmed in retreat. Syrian state media affirmed that Damascus is set to “confront a Turkish aggression” on Syrian territory, after what appears to be a major deal struck between Damascus and the main US-backed Syrian Kurdish groups.

Reuters revealed on Sunday that Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)have been in direct negotiations,with crucial Russian participation. “The source close to the Syrian government said meetings between the SDF and Damascus had taken place before and after the latest Turkish offensive,” according to the report.

ivan@ivan8848

PUTIN: ¨Syria must be free from other states military presence and the and territorial integrity the Syrian Arab Republic must be completely restored. ¨

Embedded video

And hours before it was announced Sunday that an initial deal has been reached, resulting in Syrian Army deployment to currently Turkish-besieged northern cities, the SDF’s top commander Mazloum Abdi wrote in a Foreign Policy op-ed:

“We know we would have to make painful compromises with Moscow & Assad if we go down that road. But if we have to choose between compromises and the genocide of our people, we will surely choose life.”

Abdi noted that Washington’s betrayal is two-fold: not only did the Pentagon retreat at the most crucial moment, but ordered its Kurdish proxy force to weaken its own defenses (not to mention that Washington had long actively thwarted negotiations with Damascus).

“At Washington’s request, we agreed to withdraw our heavy weapons from the border area with Turkey, destroy our defensive fortifications, and pull back our most seasoned fighters. Turkey would never attack us so long as the U.S. government was true to its word with us” — implying that Washington threw the Kurds to the wolves in a worsened state.

“We are now standing with our chests bare to face the Turkish knives,” the SDF’s top commander concluded. “Syria has two options: a religious sectarian and ethnic bloody war if the United States leaves without reaching a political solution, or a safe and stable future—but only if the United States uses its power and leverage to reach an agreement before it withdraws,” Abdi explained.

“Two questions remain: How can we best protect our people? And is the United States still our ally?” It appears that question has been answered, given the SDF has invited in the Syrian Army.

Josie Ensor

@Josiensor

SDF’s Mazloum writing hours before announcement: “We know we would have to make painful compromises with Moscow & Assad if we go down that road. But if we have to choose between compromises and the genocide of our people, we will surely choose life” 💔https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/13/kurds-assad-syria-russia-putin-turkey-genocide/ 

If We Have to Choose Between Compromise and Genocide, We Will Choose Our People

The Kurds’ commander in chief explains why his forces are finally ready to partner with Assad and Putin.

foreignpolicy.com

Again given how fast all of this has played out, a number of pundits and analysts questioned: are we witnessing a Putin-brokered ‘deal of the century’ unfold?

We explained late last week that there are a number of signs suggesting this is the case, noting that Moscow had begun organizing “reconciliation talks” between Syria and Turkey, in what would truly be an unprecedented development, given President Erdogan’s long-time position that Turkey won’t negotiate with Damascus so long as Assad is in power, after the two cut diplomatic relations in 2012.

But Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov recently confirmed as much saying“Moscow will ask for start of talks between Damascus and Ankara”.

Putin’s timing for such potential deal-making couldn’t have been better, given that:

  • A US ground retreat from the border area means Washington now has little active leverage over the situation (Trump has said he desires regional powers to sort it out).
  • Syria’s beleaguered Kurds now see Damascus as the only option for survival (and thus Syria’s ally Russia). 
  • Turkey is now at odds with all major Western and regional powers over ‘Operation Peace Spring,’ is also hated in international media, and thus will be more sensitive to reputational damage. 
  • Turkey is now under a human rights and war crimes microscope
  • For many reasons, especially the recent S-400 deal and F-35 hold-up, US-Turkey relations are currently at their lowest point, with threat of new US sanctions on Ankara looming.
  • With Washington ceding the driver’s seat, all of the above means Putin alone can “check” Erdogan’s actions

zerohedge@zerohedge

Putin Planning “Deal Of The Century” Between Syria & Turkey As US Exits https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-exit-putin-planning-deal-century-between-syria-turkey 

Putin Planning “Deal Of The Century” Between Syria & Turkey As US Exits

As the death toll mounts, with Turkey announcing 109 Syrian Kurdish fighters killed, Russia is organizing unprecedented talks between Damascus and Ankara

Just ahead of this weekend’s rapidly developing Syria events, Reuters reported that Putin is positioned to be the only voice with “positive” relations with Turkey, able to “limit” Erdogan’s ambitions inside Syria:

In a phone call with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan before the operation against U.S.-allied Kurdish fighters, Russian leader Vladimir Putin, an ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, made clear he hoped the incursion would be limited in time and scale, the sources said.

“If he [Putin] manages to fix this it would be considered a major political victory,” commented Andrey Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council, as cited in the report. “Putin could argue that the Americans failed to sort this out but we managed it, which implies our approach to the conflict is more efficient than our geopolitical opponents,” he added.

And one senior former Russian diplomat confirmed to Reuters further that, “If Turkey limits its operation to a 30-mile security zone inside Syria and conducts a quick operation, Russia is likely to tolerate it.”

And even CNN now reluctantly admits that:

Russia is already by far the strongest foreign power operating in Syria, and President Vladimir Putin has allied himself with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, throwing the full weight of the Russian military behind the Syrian Army.

Now, a planned Turkish operation to “clear” Kurdish forces from the Northeastern Syrian border zone could give Putin a chance to expand Russian influence  to the alarm of US hawks.

Likely, the outcome to the current escalation unfolding in northeast Syria will also determine the outcome to final and still festering Idlib problem — an issue which presents further opportunity for Putin and Erdogan to find common ground.

Meanwhile, the Quincy Institute’s Trita Parsi perhaps put it best in saying, “Assad appears to be coming in to fight on the sides of the Kurds against Erdogan. The heads of Washington pundits, who love to reduce geopolitical fights into battles between good and evil, will explode

end

Monday/Turkey

The Turkish lira drops on news that big sanctions are coming

(zerohedge)

Lira Slides As Trump Warns “Big Sanctions On Turkey Coming!”

Over the weekend, a flurry of reports about the devastation in northeastern Syria were published by American media outlets. Then, finally, on Sunday, news arrived that the Kurds had struck a deal with the government of Bashar al-Assad – just as several American lawmakers had anticipated – suggesting that the fighting in Syria’s northeast is only just beginning.

But the lira tumbled Monday morning as President Trump, in a series of tweets, let it be known that Washington is preparing “Big Sanctions” on Turkey after Trump last week granted the Treasury Department emergency power to levy such sanctions when and if it saw fit.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Brian Kilmeade over at @foxandfriends got it all wrong. We are not going into another war between people who have been fighting with each other for 200 years. Europe had a chance to get their ISIS prisoners, but didn’t want the cost. “Let the USA pay,” they said…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….Kurds may be releasing some to get us involved. Easily recaptured by Turkey or European Nations from where many came, but they should move quickly. Big sanctions on Turkey coming! Do people really think we should go to war with NATO Member Turkey? Never ending wars will end!

Trump then asked whether “people really think we should go to war with NATO Member Turkey?” in a subtle swipe against those who have harshly criticized his decision to pull US troops – a group that includes Democrats and Republicans.

Given the barrage of negative press, it’s hardly surprising that Trump has apparently decided to move forward with sanctions. President Erdogan will probably be disappointed, and they could cast a pall over his planned trip to Washington next month.

Meanwhile, the Turkish lira shed 1.7% on the news.

end
Turkey/EU
The EU backs off arms embargo as Erdogan holds all the cards..basically the 3.6 million migrants held inside Turkey ready to be exported to Greece
(zerohedge)

EU Backs Off Turkey Arms Embargo As Erdogan Holds All The Cards… 3.6 Million Of Them

If you’ve been paying attention you might have picked up on the irony that Turkey now appears the most powerful country in Europe thanks to the refugee threat. It’s further appeared unfazed that the EU has appeared ready to ban all arms deliveries to Ankara over its internationally condemned military incursion into Syria, following Germany and France over the weekend announcing a temporary suspension, fearing weapons would be used against Syria’s Kurds.

But alas on Monday the EU proved once again its position is too weak to act: “European Union countries committed on Monday to suspending arms exports to Turkey, but stopped short of the EU-wide arms embargo that France and Germany had sought,” Reuters reported. “Member states commit to strong national positions regarding their arms export policy to Turkey,” EU foreign ministers said, stopping short of a Europe-wide weapons embargo.

Speaking to Deutsche Welle on Germany’s imposed ban which took effect Saturday, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said any such move would “just strengthen us.” Not only does Ankara appear unfazed, also as Europe is likely to do nothing really of substance to halt the Turkish operation, it clearly has all the leverage. 

 

Refugees along the Turkey-Syria border, via Reuters. 

As one op-ed commented related to German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Sunday phone call demanding that Erdogan put an “immediate end” to ‘Operation Peace Spring’, why would he listen?… “After all, he has 3.6 million reasons not to.”

Erdogan threatened last week, not for the first time: “Hey EU, wake up. I say it again: if you try to frame our operation there as an invasion, our task is simple: we will open the doors and send 3.6 million migrants to you,” he said.

Comparing even the tone of each side’s rhetoric, European leaders are treating Erdogan with kid gloves, while his is full of bravado and very specific extreme threat of action.

“We have a common desire that this offensive ends,” French President Emmanuel Macron said alongside Merkel. “This offensive risks creating an unsustainable humanitarian situation.” And EU Council President Donald Tusk on Friday: “Turkey must understand that our main concern is that their actions may lead to another humanitarian catastrophe, which would be unacceptable.”

With ‘threatening’ words like “unacceptable” and empty threats of “dramatic consequences” with no follow through — no wonder Turkish leaders feel free to positively boast “this will just strengthen us”.

Erdogan’s response strikes a tone of one who is holding all the cards:

“Are we allies in NATO or have you taken a terrorist organization into NATO, but we don’t know about it?” he told local channel NTV on Sunday. “Very weird approach. Are you with us or with the terrorists?

But like with the migrant crisis which previously hit a peak in 2015, it is the right-wing and nationalist European parties that have picked up on Erdogan’s blackmail attempts, and could stand to benefit, by perhaps being the only to fiercely push back.

For example, the Foreign Policy Spokesman of Alternative for Germany party (AfD), Petr Bystron said Monday: “The EU pays Turkey €3 billion every year for the so-called Refugee Pact, while Recep Tayyip Erdogan still sends thousands of illegal migrants to the Greek isles and threatens to swamp Europe with even more.

 

Image via Bloomberg

The AfD statement continued, “In addition, the EU will pay Turkey €9 billion between 2007 and 2020 for an EU accession nobody wants, while Turkey turns away ever more from the Western community and values.

“The German taxpayer largely has to pay these astronomical sums, so the Turkish tyrant can maintain the largest military in Europe, make territorial claims against Greece, Syria and Iraq, and now wage a brutal war of aggression against Kurdish civilians in Northern Syria,” the statement added. “Germany and the EU must immediately halt all payments to Turkey and instead invest in our own border protection, or we will be guilty of supporting Turkey’s war crimes against the Kurds.

However, we doubt EU leadership will do little more than impose a temporary arms embargo merely threaten “dramatic consequences” which will have little to no actual impact on NATO second largest military.

end
TURKEY/USA
This would be crippling to Turkey as Trump authorizes sanctions against some Turkish officials as well as re introducing steel tariffs. He has halted a 100 billion trade deal.
(zerohedge)

Trump To Authorize Sanctions Against Turkish Officials, Reintroduce Steel Tariffs, Halt $100BN Trade Deal

Just as he promised earlier, President Trump and the White House are following through with sanctions against top Turkish officials following the Turkish military’s offensive against the Kurds of northeastern Syria.

In a tweet sent just minutes before the close, Trump published a statement outlining his plans for the sanctions, saying he would soon issue an executive order targeting current and former senior Turkish government officials and anyone found to have had a hand in Turkey’s “destabilizing actions” in northeastern Syria, which has kicked up a storm of fury in Congress among NatSec hawks on both sides of the aisle.

Trump reiterated that he is fully prepared to destroy Turkey’s economy” if “Turkish leaders continue down this dangerous and destructive path.”

He also vowed to reintroduce steel tariffs, which will be increased back up to 50%, and immediately halt negotiations on a $100 billion trade deal.

 

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Statement from President Donald J. Trump Regarding Turkey’s Actions in Northeast Syria

View image on Twitter

The lira softened modestly on the announcement:

And the iShares Turkey ETF slumped into the close.

As if Erdogan’s intentions weren’t clear even before Trump decided to pull the last remaining American forces from the area, the president warned that Turkey was “endangering civilians and threatening peace, security, and stability in the region. I have been perfectly clear with President Erdogan: Turkey’s action is precipitating a humanitarian crisis and setting conditions for possible war crimes.”

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long insisted that Kurdish forces deployed along the Turkish border represented an extant “terror” threat. The military operation was nominally launched to install a buffer zone along the border.

Read the full statement below:

Statement from President Donald J. Trump Regarding Turkey’s Actions in Northeast Syria

I will soon be issuing an Executive Order authorizing the imposition of sanctions against current and former officials of the Government of Turkey and any persons contributing to Turkey’s destabilizing actions in northeast Syria. Likewise, the steel tariffs will be increased back up to 50 percent, the level prior to reduction in May. The United States will also immediately stop negotiations, being led by the Department of Commerce, with respect to a $100 billion trade deal with Turkey.

This Order will enable the United States to impose powerful additional sanctions on those who may be involved in serious human rights abuses, obstructing a ceasefire, preventing displaced persons from returning home, forcibly repatriating refugees, or threatening the peace, security, or stability in Syria. The Order will authorize a broad range of consequences, including financial sanctions, the blocking of property, and barring entry into the United States.

Since my first day in office, the Trump Administration has worked tirelessly to preserve the safety and security of the United States and its citizens. The United States and our partners have liberated 100 percent of ISIS’s ruthless territorial caliphate. Turkey must not put these gains in jeopardy. Turkey must also prioritize the protection of civilians, particularly vulnerable ethnic and religious minorities in northeast Syria. Indiscriminate targeting of civilians, destruction of civilian infrastructure, and targeting of ethnic or religious minorities is unacceptable. Additionally, the return of refugees must be conducted in a safe, voluntary, and dignified manner.

Turkey’s military offensive is endangering civilians and threatening peace, security, and stability in the region. I have been perfectly clear with President Erdogan: Turkey’s action is precipitating a humanitarian crisis and setting conditions for possible war crimes. Turkey must ensure the safety of civilians, including religious and ethnic minorities, and is now, or may be in the future, responsible for the ongoing detention of ISIS terrorists in the region. Unfortunately, Turkey does not appear to be mitigating the humanitarian effects of its invasion.

As I have said, I am withdrawing the remaining United States service members from northeast Syria. As United States forces have defeated the ISIS physical caliphate, United States troops coming out of Syria will now redeploy and remain in the region to monitor the situation and prevent a repeat of 2014, when the neglected threat of ISIS raged across Syria and Iraq. A small footprint of United States forces will remain at At Tanf Garrison in southern Syria to continue to disrupt remnants of ISIS.

The United States will aggressively use economic sanctions to target those who enable, facilitate, and finance these heinous acts in Syria. I am fully prepared to swiftly destroy Turkey’s economy if Turkish leaders continue down this dangerous and destructive path.

RUSSIA
Russia’s de dollarization program continues as it now considers pricing its energy exports in either Euros or roubles.
(zerohedge)

Russia Considers Energy Exports In Euros, Rubles As Putin’s De-Dollarization Continues

Russia’s de-dollarization efforts continue, in line with Putin’s promise to lower the country’s vulnerability to the ongoing threat of US sanctions, with officials eyeing energy exports next.

“We have a very good currency, it’s stable. Why not use it for global transactions?” Russian Economy Minister Maxim Oreshkin said in an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday. “We want (oil and gas sales) in roubles at some point,” he said.

 

Image via Politico

“The question here is not to have any excessive costs from doing it that way, but if the broad … financial infrastructure is created, if the initial costs are very low, then why not?” Oreshkin mused.

 

Despite less than 5% of Russia’s $687.5 billion in annual trade being with the US, it remains that over half of that trade still relies on the dollar, according to Bloomberg figures.

But US sanctions now routinely delay Western companies’ business with Russia, given they have to check with the US over whether those transactions are allowed.

Reuters summarized of the economy minister’s latest statements further that “Russia will be able to sell its energy exports in local currency given the popularity of the country’s domestic bonds among foreign investors, who own 29% of its rouble debt.”

After two waves of US sanctions in 2014 and 2016 — related to Crimea and alleged US election interference — Washington most recently barred its banks from buying sovereign Eurobonds directly from Russia, to which Russia’s finance ministry responded by saying it would sell more debt to investors from Asia and Europe.

Though ultimately Moscow won’t be able to give up the dollar completely, especially related to oil, Putin’s desire to ditch the dollar is a trend that will continue to be realized, given the rapid improvement of infrastructure for transactions in alternative currencies.

end

6.Global Issues

Now we witness global air freight levels in serious decline..the worst since 2008

(zerohedge)

Global Air Freight Decline Now Worst Since 2008 Financial Crisis

The escalating trade war between the US and China has accelerated the synchronized global downturn. Global exports continue to collapse, and the global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) remains under 50, stuck in contraction territory. All of these ominous signals indicate a global trade recession could be imminent in 2020.

New data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) shows global air freight volumes, measured in freight tonne kilometers (FTKs), plunged 3.9% in August YoY, and this was the tenth consecutive month of contraction and the most extended decline since the 2008 financial crisis.

Global trade volumes are quickly slowing, down over 1% from a year ago.

Trade across the world could be at a standstill by 2H20. Air cargo volumes have been hit with tremendous macroeconomic headwinds from a global slowdown that started in late 2017. An intensifying trade war between the US and China has undoubtedly accelerated the global downturn, damaging emerging markets that are highly exposed to exports, like Europe, India, and many countries in Asia.

“The impact of the US-China trade war on air freight volumes was the clearest yet in August. Year-on-year demand fell by 3.9%. Not since the global financial crisis in 2008 has demand fallen for ten consecutive months. This is deeply concerning. And with no signs of a détente on trade, we can expect the tough business environment for air cargo to continue. Trade generates prosperity. Trade wars don’t. That’s something governments should not forget,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

Plunging air freight volumes across the world is troubling because the industry is viewed as a bellwether indicator of the health of the global economy.

A regional view of air freight volumes shows Asia-Pacific and the Middle East experienced the sharpest declines in YoY growth in August. North America and Europe saw moderate decreases. Surprisingly, Africa and Latin America recorded an increase in air freight volume in August YoY.

Earlier this week, IMF’s new head, Kristalina Georgieva, said the monetary fund would again cut its global growth forecast both 2019 and 2020; as a reminder back in July, the IMF again cut its projection for 2019 GDP growth to 3.2% this year and 3.5% next year, its fourth downgrade since last October, and the lowest since the financial crisis amid ever-escalating trade war.

Investors should prepare for severe turbulence ahead, as it’s quite evident the global economy is entering the worst slowdown since the 2008 financial crisis.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1024 DOWN .0007 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.21 DOWN 0.102 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2558   DOWN   0.0078  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3229 UP .0027 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 7 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 34.23 POINTS OR 1.15% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 213.41 POINTS OR 0.81%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,53%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 213.41 POINTS OR 0.81%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 34.23 POINTS OR 1.15%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 53% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 246.89  POINTS OR 1.15%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1491.50

silver:$17.57-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.73% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.19 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 98.49 UP 20 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.47% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.13%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.41%//DOWN 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,56 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 111 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.31% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.87% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1276  DOWN     .0008 or 8 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.74 DOWN .199 OR YEN UP 20  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2491 UP .0057 POUND UP 57  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 32 basis points to 1.3086

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8800    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8872  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.6842 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.13%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 2.06 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.59 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.15 UP 81  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 42.37  0.56%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 113.18 POINTS OR .92%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 21.16 POINTS 0.38%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 58.50 POINTS or 0.63%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 11.43 POINTS OR 0.05%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 54.92 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 61.83 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.05  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.15 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 15 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.24 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  53.45//

 

 

BRENT :  59.19

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.73…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.19..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1024 ( DOWN 7   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.38 DOWN .010 (YEN UP 1 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.52 UP 22 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2553 DOWN 85  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.9259

 

 

the Russian rouble 64.32   DOWN 0.12 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 12 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3235 DOWN 39 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0675  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0705 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.46%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 29.23 POINTS OR 0.11%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 8.39 POINTS OR 0.10%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  14.85 CLOSED DOWN .73

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.00%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Extend Friday’s “Sell The News” Trade ‘Deal’ Losses

With the bond market ‘adults in the room’ absent, algos did their best to maintain US equity markets… but failed as they extended the post-trade-deal-like-thing selling continued…

Chinese markets rallied in the morning session then trod water (closing before China’s statement)

European markets ended lower with UK’s FTSE worst (after its mega-spike on Friday) as brexit hopes faded again…

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

US futures show the overnight tumble when China’s statement hit (around 5amET)…

 

 

On the cash side, Nasdaq outperformed – desperately clinging to green on the day as Small Caps and Trannies underperformed…

 

 

Extremely low volume today (Columbus Day)…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury markets were closed due to Columbus Day, but TSY futs suggested a 2-3bps compression in yields…

 

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar limped higher on the day…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan strengthened for the 4th days in a row…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Cable ended weaker (despite a mid-morning pump’n’dump)…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos are mixed with Ripple notably outperforming and Bitcoin unch…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Oil was worst as PMs managed modest gains…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Oil was weak today after doubts re-emerged on the trade deal (demand) and costs (tanker costs soaring)…

 

Gold futures briefly got back above $1500 but failed to hold it…

 

 

And finally, there’s this…

It’s deja vu all over again… but is it 1987 or 2013?

 

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

Stocks Ramp To Unchanged On China “Breakthrough” Tweet

And just like that, we are unch…

Thanks to a perfectly timed tweet from Global Times Editor Hi Xijin, algos ignited momentum at the cash open, sending stocks back to unchanged on the day…

Based on what I know, China-US trade talks made breakthrough last week and the two sides have the strong will to reach a final deal. Initial statement of the Chinese side is moderate. This is China’s habit. It doesn’t mean China’s real attitude is not positive.

And ramp…

 

And with bonds closed, there’s no one left to rationalize market moves.

END

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

 

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

It never ends:  Lampert bought 425 Sears and K Mart stores out of bankruptcy. Bricks and mortar catastrophe continues as he will close about 100 of those stores.

(zerohedge)

Sears Will Close Another 100 Stores Amid Failed Turnaround 

A new report by The Wall Street Journal indicates about 100 of the 425 Sears and Kmart stores that financier Edward Lampert acquired out of bankruptcy are set to close by year-end.

Lampert, who was chairman and chief executive of parent Sears Holdings Corp., decided in late 2018 to file for bankruptcy protection.

Lampert provided the parent company with numerous financing deals, one was upwards of $2.4 billion, to save the sinking retailer.

Earlier this year, he acquired 223 Sears and 202 Kmart stores, the Kenmore and DieHard brands, for approximately $5.2 billion.

The newly acquired assets were put into a new company called Transform Holdco LLC, which didn’t have $4 billion in debt and pension obligations that the parent company had. About 50% of the stores in the new company were profitable, according to one of The Journal’s sources.

The sources said by late summer, the profitability of at least 100 of the 425 stores owned by Transform Holdco saw rapid deterioration by late summer. Sources said the decision to cut 100 stores by year-end isn’t public knowledge yet, there are no filings that detail the plan.

Sears has been crushed by e-commerce competition, along with other brick-and-mortar competition like Home Depot, Lowe’s and Best Buy.

Market research company TraQline said Sears’ dollar share of large appliances dropped to 11% in June from 23% four years earlier.

Sears has struggled to reacquire suppliers after the bankruptcy proceedings, leaving many of its store shelves empty, and consumers disappointed with the selection.

As for the overall retail trend, our report from last month specified how 2019 store closures already outpaced all of 2018.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Nonsense continues with the swamp as Schiff now states that the whistleblower may not testify. My question is why would he? We already have the full description of the phone call.

(zerohedge)

 

Schiff’s CIA ‘Whistleblower’ May Not Testify In Impeachment Probe After All

 

A CIA ‘whistleblower’ who worked with former VP Joe Biden as well as two Adam Schiff (D-CA) aides has apparently gotten cold feet, and may not testify in front of the House Intelligence Committee in person or in writing, according to Schiff. This is in stark contrast to what Schiff’s late September claim that the man at the center of an impeachment inquiry against President Trump would testify in the House “very soon.”

That was downgraded last week to testimony “in writing.”

And finally, on Sunday, Schiff told CBS’ “Face the Nation” that the whistleblower’s testimony might not be needed after all.

“Yes, we were interested in having the whistleblower come forward,” Schiff said, to which host Margaret Brennan asked “but not anymore?”

“Well, our primary interest right now is making sure that that person is protected … given that we already have the call records we dodn’t need the whistleblower, who wasn’t on the call.”

Watch:

Heather Caygle

@heatherscope

Rep. Adam Schiff, House Intel chair, hints that his panel may not interview the whistleblower over concerns about protecting their identity.

Schiff says on Face the Nation that they already have the transcript of call b/t Trump and Ukraine, which is center of w/b complaint

House Democrats launched their impeachment inquiry into President Trump after the whistleblower claimed Trump was abusing his office and ‘pressuring’ the new president of Ukraine, Volodomyr Zelensky, to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter for alleged corruption.

After the White House released a transcript of the call, however, it was clear that no pressure was applied. Zelensky, meanwhile, has said on multiple occasions that there was no pressure or ‘blackmail’ involved in the request, and that Ukraine would “happily investigate” the Bidens.

Further crumbling the Democrat credibility is the fact that Schiff lied when he said that his panel had “not spoken directly with the whistleblower,” a claim which earned him four pinocchios from the Washington Postfor his “flat-out false” statement when it was later revealed that the whistleblower approached Schiff’s panel – which then directed him to a Democrat attorney.

Schiff on ‘Morning Joe’ clearly made a statement that was false,” said the fact-checker. “He now says he’s was answering the wrong question, but if that was the case, he should have quickly corrected the record. He compounded his falsehood by telling reporters a few days later that if not for the [inspector general’s] office, the committee would not have known about the complaint. That again suggested there had been no prior communication.

A House Intel Committee spokesperson told The Post that Schiff’s reply “should have been more carefully phrased.”

So here we are – with Schiff and House Democrats are continuing forward with their impeachment inquiry as if Trump hadn’t released the transcript, and their accuser’s credibility wasn’t eroding by the day.

Sean Davis

@seanmdav

They really are running the Swetnick/Avenatti playbook. https://dailycaller.com/2019/10/13/adam-schiff-whistleblower-interview/ 

Schiff Says Congress May Not Need To Interview Whistleblower After All

Adam Schiff said that the House Intelligence Committee may not to interview the CIA analyst who filed a whistleblower complaint against President Donald Trump

dailycaller.com

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Repo Market Liquidity Unexpectedly Deteriorates As Funding Shortage Surges 35%

The New York Fed unexpectedly announced that use of its overnight repo facility surged by 35% in one day [Friday], with $61.55BN in securities submitted ($58.35BN in TSYs, $3.2BN in MBS) to today’s op, up sharply from yesterday’s $45.5BN… [QE3 was originally $40B of agency MBS monetization per month.]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/repo-market-liquidity-unexpectedly-deteriorates-funding-shortage-surges-35

The NY Fed on Friday announced that the Fed’s new QE ploy will buy $60B of T-Bills per month – and the scheme will persist at least through Q2 2020.  Why is the Fed so scared?

Statement Regarding Treasury Bill Purchases and Repurchase Operations

The Desk plans to purchase Treasury bills at an initial pace of approximately $60 billion per month, starting with the period from mid-October to mid-November…

In addition, at least through January of next year, the Desk will conduct overnight and term repo operations to ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample and to mitigate the risk of money market pressures.  Term repo operations will generally be conducted twice per week, initially in an offering amount of at least $35 billion per operation.  Overnight repo operations will be conducted daily, initially in an offering amount of at least $75 billion per operation

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_191011

WSJ’s Dustin Volz @dnvolz: Lawyers for the whistleblower have asked Congress whether their client could submit testimony in writing instead of appearing in person, amid persistent concerns about protecting his anonymity and safety

     @seanmdav: The anti-Trump leaker’s attorneys are desperate to prevent him from being questioned about his potentially illegal contacts with media and House Democrats and about his massive credibility problems stemming from his notorious partisanship

Schiff Says Congress May Not Need To Interview Whistleblower After All

“Given that we already have the call record, we don’t need the whistleblower who wasn’t on the call to tell us what took place during the call, we have the best evidence of that,” Schiff said on “Face the Nation.” … A Republican source familiar with the matter told the Daily Caller News Foundation in response to that report that it appeared Schiff was “laying the groundwork” to announce the whistleblower will not testify, “and to blame that on Republicans.”… [Does the whistleblower exist?]

https://dailycaller.com/2019/10/13/adam-schiff-whistleblower-interview/

Schiff also admitted there was no ‘quid pro quo’ between DJT and Zelensky but the House doesn’t need one to impeach DJT.  This entire episode is a Kavanaugh-like fraud.

The NYT on Saturday: James Comey Would Like to Help – The former F.B.I. director wants an end to the Trump presidency. And yes, he knows you might think he caused it.  James Comey plans to spend the next 13 months working to drive President Trump from power…

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/12/us/politics/james-comey-trump.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

Can you imagine if an ex-FBI Director or high official did the same thing to Obama?

Adam Schiff’s staff includes 2 aides who worked with whistleblower at White House

Abigail Grace, who worked at the NSC until 2018, was hired in February, while Sean Misko, an NSC aide until 2017, joined Schiff’s committee staff in August, the same month the whistleblower submitted his complaint Grace, 36, was hired to help Schiff’s committee investigate the Trump White House…

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/adam-schiffs-staff-includes-2-aides-who-worked-with-whistleblower-at-white-house

Greg Jarrett: Clapper Associate Assisted with Whistleblower Complaint

Charles McCullough, who worked under President Obama’s Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper, assisted and advised the Ukrainian-call “whistleblowers”…

Rod Rosenstein appointed Robert Mueller in an act of vengeance against Trump, not because the evidence or law merited a special counsel.  Rosenstein, who was being harshly criticized for engineering the firing of James Comey, blamed Trump. He retaliated by naming a special counsel to investigate the President…    https://thegreggjarrett.com/clapper-associate-assisted-with-whistleblower-complaint/

US intel, Romney figure joined board of Ukraine gas company: Burisma

The article says that Joseph Cofer Black would be “leading the company’s security and strategic development efforts.” Black had served in various CIA positions under Presidents Clinton and George W. Bush.  According to reports, Cofer Black was a “top Romney aide.”…

https://sharylattkisson.com/2019/10/us-intel-figure-joined-board-of-ukraine-gas-company-burisma/

House Dems Move to Impeach, Senate GOP Writes Mean Letters – Unlike House Democrats, Senate Republicans are all talk and no action. They should take a cue from their House counterparts on the other side of the aisle… Congressional Republicans have the power to defend the president against a nonstop assault with dangerous consequences for the country and subdue their political foes. Why don’t they want to use it?    https://amgreatness.com/2019/10/10/house-dems-move-to-impeach-senate-gop-writes-mean-letters/

Rand Paul Calls For Probe into 4 Democratic Senators Over Threats To Ukraine – they sent to Ukraine in 2018 that threatened to withhold aid from the country if it did not continue to investigate President Donald Trump

https://www.dailywire.com/news/rand-paul-calls-for-probe-into-4-democratic-senators-over-threats-to-ukraine

Biden’s Campaign Is Asking Major Media Outlets, Big Tech to Black out Trump’s Ads on Ukraine

https://dailycaller.com/2019/10/11/trump-biden-media-big-tech-campaign/

NBC’s Meet the Press @MeetThePress: The president held a campaign rally last night and attacked Hunter Biden. We cannot in good conscience show it to you… [You can’t make this up!]

https://twitter.com/MeetThePress/status/1182773349044408324

Joe Biden has a warning for his Democratic rivals as they prepare for the fourth televised debate next week: Stay away from the issue of Ukraine and Hunter Biden

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-11/biden-camp-warns-rivals-off-attacks-on-his-family-in-ohio-debate

A week ago, reports had Romney testing the donor waters for a run at Trump.  Apparently, he failed.

Mitt Romney Rules Out 2020 Run, Says Trump Re-Election Likely

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2019/10/10/mitt-romney-rules-out-2020-run-says-trump-re-election-likely/

Behind the scenes of the Trump bluff that kicked off Turkey’s invasion

President Trump had been calling Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s bluff for more than 2 years, and some senior administration officials thought Erdoğan would never actually go through with his long-threatened Syria invasion, according to 6 sources with direct knowledge of the situation.

   Trump would tell Erdoğan that if he wanted to invade Syria he would have to own whatever mess ensued, according to these sources. Erdoğan would have to take care of ISIS and manage international condemnation, trouble from Capitol Hill, and the quagmire with the Kurds. And when Trump put it in such stark terms to Erdoğan, the Turkish leader would demur. Until last Sunday, that is, when he told Trump he was moving ahead with the invasion of northern Syria…

https://www.axios.com/trump-erdogan-turkey-syria-invasion-bluff-fc761d8f-e33b-473b-8ece-d0b8b3a51f26.html

The Untold Story of How George W. Bush Lost China

Starting around 2003, and continuing for a number of years thereafter, China kept the exchange rate of its currency pegged at artificially low levels, bestowing significant competitive advantages on Chinese exporters. That exacerbated a phenomenon that has come to be known as the “China shock,” which refers to the decimation of manufacturing companies in a number of U.S. blue-collar communities that were disproportionately affected by Chinese imports…

    Foreign firms that had once been welcomed with open arms would increasingly fall victim to a bewildering array of obstacles and industrial policies aimed at promoting and protecting Chinese competitors favored by the party-state…

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/04/the-untold-story-of-how-george-w-bush-lost-china/

Lori Hendry @Lrihendry: Obama gave Pearson Publishing $350 million to create Commoncore text and Pearson gave Obama a $65 million dollar book deal in return. Quid Pro Quo.  Media silent…

Only half of California students meet English standards and fewer meet math standards, test scores show – 4 in 10 are proficient in math…https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-10-09/california-school-test-scores-2019

Growing Secularism Is Pushing Religion, Traditional Values Aside, AG Barr Warns

“Suffice it to say that the campaign to destroy the traditional moral order has coincided, and, as I believe, has brought with it, immense suffering and misery… Secularists and their allies have marshaled all the forces of mass communication, popular culture, the entertainment industry, and academia in an unremitting assault on religion and traditional values… we have cast the state in the role as the alleviator of bad consequences. We call on the state to mitigate the social costs of personal conduct and irresponsibility. So the reaction to growing illegitimacy is not sexual responsibility but abortion; the reaction to drug addiction is safe injection sites… The call comes for more and more social programs to deal with this wreckage, and while we think we are resolving problems, we [actually] are underwriting them… Religion also helps promote moral discipline in society. We’re all fallen. We don’t automatically conform our conduct to moral rules, even when we know that they’re good for us. But religion helps teach, train, and habituate people to want what’s good… religion helps frame a moral culture within society that instills and reinforces moral discipline.” [Remarks at Notre Dame Law School on Friday]

https://www.theepochtimes.com/ag-william-barr-warns-on-how-growing-secularism-is-pushing-out-religion-traditional-values_3114486.html

Well that is all for today

I will see you Tuesday night.

 

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