OCT 15/ANOTHER RAID ORCHESTRATED BY THE OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS: GOLD DOWN $13.25 TO $1480/00////SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TO $17.38//HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL FROM THE SLV (2.15 MILLION OZ//)QUEUE JUMPING AT BOTH GOLD AND SILVER COMEX WITH THE GOLD ADVANCE MASSIVE (3/4 OF A TONNE)//CHINA’S CPI ADVANCES HUGELY DUE TO LARGE PRICE GAINS IN PORK//CHINA DEMANDS THE USA TO REMOVE TARIFFS AND THEN CHINA MAY RESUME FOOD PURCHASES (FAT CHANCE)//HOPE FOR A BREXIT DEAL TONIGHT//LEE ADLER PENS THE TRUTH BEHIND THE NEED FOR POMO (QE4) AND THIS IS YOUR MUST READ FOR TONIGHT//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1480.00 DOWN $13.25(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.38 DOWN 30 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1481.10

 

silver:  $17.39

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 20/38

_________

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,491.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/14/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 10/16/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 2
661 C JP MORGAN 14
737 C ADVANTAGE 20 4
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 20 20
MONTH TO DATE: 10,790

___________________________________________________________________________________

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT: 20 NOTICE(S) FOR 2000 OZ (0.1182 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  10,790 NOTICES FOR 1,079,000 OZ  (33.561 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR 0CT

 

 

68 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 340,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 993 for 4,965,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 8293 DOWN 60  

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8173 DOWN 174

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A GOOD  SIZED 751 CONTRACTS FROM 208,921 UP TO 209,672 WITH THE 18 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR OCT 0,; DEC  429 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  429 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 429 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 429 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 2.145 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 18 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

6.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

YESTERDAY, ANOTHER  ATTEMPT BY THE BANKERS TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL AT THE SILVER COMEX FAILED. THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN CONTAINING SILVER’S PRICE RISE AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS.

WE AGAIN HAD A STRONG GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES (1252 CONTRACTS) WITH THE 18 CENT GAIN.

 

 

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF OCT:

11,851 CONTRACTS (FOR 11 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 11,851 CONTRACTS) OR 59.26 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1077 CONTRACTS OR 5.38 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  59.26 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 8.46% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1699.04   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 751, WITH THE 18 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 429 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED: 1180 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 429 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 823  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 18 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.68 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.048 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 149% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 68 NOTICE(S) FOR 340,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 6.32 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 715 CONTRACTS, TO 606,080 ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG  $8.25 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// /

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5729 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  5729 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 606,072,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6,444 CONTRACTS: 715 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 823 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 6,444 CONTRACTS OR 644,400 OZ OR 20.04 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF $8.25 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A GOOD GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 20.04  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE . THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS BOTH EXCHANGES ROSE IN TOTAL OI. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT : 69,550 CONTRACTS OR 6,955,000 oz OR 216.33 TONNES (11 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 6322 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 216.33 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 216.33/3550 x 100% TONNES =6.09% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4880.25  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    509.57  TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 715 DESPITE THE STRONG  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($8.25)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5729 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5729 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A GOOD  SIZED GAIN OF 6444 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5729 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 715 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 20.04 TONNES). ..AND THIS GOOD INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE A STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.25 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  20 notice(s) filed upon for 2000 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71  TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY

A HUGE CHANGE:  THE CROOKS WITHDREW 2.15 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER TO RAID THE SILVER PRICE.

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 751 CONTRACTS from 208,921 UP TO 209,672 AND CLOSER TO A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR OCT. 0; FOR DEC  429  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 429 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 751  CONTRACTS TO THE 429 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 1180 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5.90 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 6.32 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE STRONG 18 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 429 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.84 POINTS OR 0.56%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 17.92 POINTS OR 0.07%   /The Nikkei closed UP 408.34 POINTS OR 1.87%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .08%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0817 /Oil UP TO 53.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and 58,88 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0817 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0872 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

After you read this, please read Lee Adler’s piece below. …same problem..lack of cash/liquidity

(zerohedge)

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)Hong Kong

Ton Luongo outlines what he thinks is going on with all of those Hong Kong protests

(Tom Luongo)

ii)China
Huge price gains in pork has now sent China’s CPI to a 6 year high.  We also have factory deflation as there is just
too much capacity.
(Zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

Looks like we are close to the Brexit deal

(zerohedge)

ii)UK

 This is rather telling! England’s premier equity fund , the Woodford Equity Income Fund is to be liquidated
(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)TURKEY

Not only does Turkey hold 3.5 migrants but it also holds 50 tactical USA nukes

(zerohedge)

ii)Turkey/Russia/Syria/Manbij
Syrian forces along with the Russians have now taken over Manbij in a planned move against Turkey
(zerohedge)

iii)Turkey

This is not good!!  Turkey deliberately released ISIS prisoners and then they blamed the Kurds..what doorknobs..
(zerohedge)

iv)LebanonLebanon pleads for international help as arsonists set fire to acres of trees.  It is to bad that they cannot call on Israeli’s who do have the knowledge to combat these fires.

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Quite a commentary:  the Fed has not yet supplied the names of who got the 29 trillion dollars during the last collapse

(Pam and Russ Martens/Wall Street on Parade)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner is another extremely smart cookie.  He understands the TOMO/POMO situation fully and explains it to us in simple language.  This is a must read!!

(Wall Street Journal/Lee Adler)

b)This is in line with the above Lee Adler paper

(zerohedge)

c)Last week I was in California exactly where P G and E used rolling blackouts.  It causes massive chaos everywhere and billions in lost revenue

(zerohedge)

d)The world’s largest landowner tried for an IPO and failed.  They are now looking for a bailout and this is going to play havoc on the entire world’s financial scene.  These guys are in NY city, London England, Toronto and just about every major city,

(zerohedge)

e)The delays in harvesting the corn crops is going to have a devastating effect on income for our midwest farmers as a historic blizzard will cripple them.

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Bill Barr, and company as well as Inspector General Horowitz better release their stuff before Schiff makes a mockery out of the system. Schiff claims that the public has no right to observe the impeachment inquiry. Matt Gaetz kicked out of the secretive hearings

(zerohedge)

b)Hunter Biden admits that he would not have had that Ukrainian board seat if it was not for his father

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 715 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 606,080 ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG GAIN OF $8.25 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5729 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR OCT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 5729   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5729 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 6444 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5729 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 715 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE AS IT ROSE BY $8.25. HOWEVER, JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY UNSUSPECTING LONGS. ..WE MAY HAVE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING.

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  6444 CONTRACTS OR 644400 OZ OR 20.04 TONNES.

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER.  This month is generally the poorest delivery month of the year as must players prefer to go straight to the big active delivery month of December. Strangely October will turn out to be a huge delivery month. Today we have 447 contracts still standing for a WHOPPING GAIN of 186 contracts. Yesterday we had 38 notices served upon so we despite the raid yesterday,  we have a MONSTROUS gain of 224 contracts or an additional 22,400 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. We again have A MASSIVE queue jumping by the bankers in their attempt to find physical metal for somebody as they try and put out fires elsewhere..

 

The next active delivery month after October is the non active contract month of November. Here we saw a GAIN of 152 contracts and thus the OI INCREASED to 1060.  The very big December contract month saw its oi RISE by 137 contracts UP to 466,195.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 20 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  2000 OZ. (0.0622 TONNES)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 751 CONTRACTS FROM 208,921 UP TO 209,672 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 18 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER.  HERE WE HAVE 339 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A GAIN OF 1 CONTRACT. WE HAD 0 CONTACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 1 CONTRACTS OR 5,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH.  THE ALSO REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

AFTER OCTOBER WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND HERE  WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 46 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 525. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 604 CONTRACTS UP TO 156,144.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 68 notice(s) filed for 340,000, OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 298,986  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  239,515  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

OCT 15/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
20 notice(s)
 2000 OZ
(0.0622 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
427 contracts
(42700 oz)
1.328 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
10,790 notices
1,079,000 OZ
33.499 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ today: nothing   arrived   

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

 

 

FOR THE OCT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 20 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 14 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,790) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT. (447 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (20 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,121,700 OZ OR 34.889 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of OCT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (10790 x 100 oz)  + (447)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (20 x 100 oz )which equals 1,121,700 oz standing OR 34.889 TONNES in this  active delivery month of OCT.

We gained a strong 224 contracts OR 22,400 ADDITIONAL OZ which queue jumped as our bankers //official sector were searching for badly needed physical

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 3 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

AND NOW……………………………………………………………………………     OCT. 34.889 TONNES

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT IN SEPT 2 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.6 TONNES.

IF WE ADD THE THREE DELIVERY MONTHS: 67.495

TONNES- 2.60 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 64.895 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 35.78 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1,150,634.308 oz or  35.789 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,187.127 oz 254.65 tonnes

IN THE LAST 36 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
OCT 15 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
608,786.463 oz

 

brinks

Delaware

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,798,348.075 oz
CNT
JPM
No of oz served today (contracts)
68
CONTRACT(S)
(340,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
271 contracts
 1,355,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  993 contracts

4,965,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  1,199,105.610  oz

ii)into CNT:  599,242.465 oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 17.164 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.05% of all official comex silver. (157.164 million/314.0 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  1,798,348.035  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of Brinks: 599,633.580 oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 9,152.883 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 608,786.463  oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

i) Out of CNT: 345,178.440 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of CNT and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

ii) out of Delaware:  9933.600 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Delaware

total dealer silver:  80.821 million

total dealer + customer silver:  314.712 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the OCT 2019. contract month is represented by 68 contract(s) FOR 340,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 993 x 5,000 oz = 4,965,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (339) and the number of notices served upon today 68 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 993 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (339)- number of notices served upon today (68 x 5000 oz equals 6,320,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month. 

WE  GAINED 1 contract or an additional 5,000 oz of silver will stand at the comex as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards. For the past several weeks we have been witnessing queue jumping in both gold and silver.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 68 notice(s) filed for 340,000 OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  67,603 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 50,425 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 50,425 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 252 million  OZ 36.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.70% ((OCT 15/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.95% to NAV (OCT 15/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -0.95%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.84 TRADING 14.37///DISCOUNT 3.20

 

 

 

 

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 15//WITH GOLD DOWN$13.25 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 14/2019: WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 TODAY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.00 TODAY, A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921,71 TONNES

OCT.9//WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT 8\WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

0CT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN 7 DOLLARS//A BIG CHANGE //A DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES//

INVENTORY RISES TO 923.76 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $15.25 A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 920.83 TONNES

SEPT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $32.50: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.88 TONNES

SEPT 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 26//WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90 A HUGE  PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  16.42 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

 

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.65 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN OUT OF THIS WORLD DEPOSIT OF 14.37 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 10.65 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 ON THE DAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.06 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 16/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A BIG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 12//WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A HUGE 7.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.15 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

 

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OCT 15/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 921.71 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 680 TRADING DAYS: 27.94 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 580 TRADING DAYS: A NET 139.20 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.15 MILLION OZ//. INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ.

OCT 14/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ//

OCT 10/2016//WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.443 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 166,000 OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 1.2019 //WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.87 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.656 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25.//WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.338 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23.2019/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.899 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION PAPER OZ OF SILVER///INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.425 MILLION PAPER OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.179 MILLION OZ../

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 60 CENTS TODAY: A RATHER TIMID CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 842,000 PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 386.604 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

 

OCT 15/2019:

 

Inventory 382.789 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.02 and libor 6 month duration 1.98

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .04

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.97%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.97

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.05

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Quite a commentary:  the Fed has not yet supplied the names of who got the 29 trillion dollars during the last collapse

(Pam and Russ Martens/Wall Street on Parade)

Ask Congress to compel New York Fed to reveal who is getting all those loans

 Section: 

9:53p ET Monday, October 14, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

As financial writers Pam and Russ Martens continue to marvel at the hundreds of billions of dollars being loaned by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to unidentified financial houses for vague purposes without prompting any inquiry from the country’s elected representatives —

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/10/news-articles-on-the-feds-secret-…

— GATA tonight sent the New York Fed a formal freedom-of-information inquiry, which is appended.

… 

GATA supporters in the United States are encouraged to write to their members of Congress to endorse GATA’s request and urge their congressmen to pursue the matter with the New York Fed.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Sent by e-mail to FOI@ny.frb.org

Monday, October 14, 2019

Shelley Pitterson
Desmond Lee
Freedom of Information Department
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
33 Liberty St.
New York, NY 10045

Dear Shelley and Desmond (if I may) and FOI Officers:

Financial columnists Pam and Russ Martens today recall the campaign of the late Bloomberg News reporter Mark Pittman to compel the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to provide details of the huge loans it made secretly to financial houses a decade ago during the last major financial crisis:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/10/news-articles-on-the-feds-secret-…

The Martenses add that the New York Fed now is refusing to identify “which Wall Street firms are taking the hundreds of billions of dollars in revolving loans” that the bank lately has been making.

In light of the precedent set in 2011, when the Supreme Court let stand an order to the New York Fed to disclose details of the loans that were the subject of the Bloomberg News case, please consider this a U.S. Freedom of Information Act request for access to all records of the New York Fed’s loans made this year.

If this request cannot be granted, I would appreciate an explanation why the 2011 precedent does not apply here.

Thanks for your attention.

With good wishes.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

News Articles on the Fed’s Secret Trillions in Loans to Wall Street During the Last Crisis Have Been Purged from Bloomberg News

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: October 14, 2019 ~

Mark Pittman

Mark Pittman

Mark Pittman was the Bloomberg News reporter responsible for the Bloomberg lawsuit against the Federal Reserve seeking the names of the banks and their share of the trillions of dollars that the Fed was secretly funneling to them during the financial crisis. Pittman had already shared in a Gerald Loeb award for Bloomberg’s five-part series, “Wall Street’s Faustian Bargain,” and many felt he was a lock for a Pulitzer. But one week before Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was to sit for his Senate Confirmation hearing on his reappointment to another term as Fed Chairman, Pittman died of a heart attack at age 52 on November 25, 2009.

At the time of Pittman’s death, the Fed was still refusing to release the details of its secret loans, despite losing its court battle at the Federal District Court. The appellate court decision against the Fed would not come until March 19, 2010, four months after Pittman’s death. Even then, the Fed did not release the data. First it asked for a rehearing by the Second Circuit Court of Appeals. When that was rejected, a Wall Street consortium of banks, that were the recipients of the trillions of dollars in secret loans, appealed the case to the U.S. Supreme Court. That appeal failed as well and the Fed was forced to release its data in 2011. When all of its bailout programs were tallied up, the tab came to a staggering, cumulative $29 trillion – all transacted without the involvement or awareness of anyone elected to office by the American people. Congress remained in the dark throughout this period as trillions of dollars were sluiced to Wall Street, foreign banks, insolvent banks, even hedge funds that were shorting (betting against) the market.

Now the Fed has turned on its unaccountable money spigot to Wall Street once again and is attempting to pass it off as part of its normal open market operations –  keeping Congress and the American people in the dark. To date, the Fed has refused to name which Wall Street firms are taking the hundreds of billions of dollars in revolving loans and how much each is receiving.

We thought it would be helpful to our readers to see the similarities between what the Fed is now doing and what it was doing when Mark Pittman tried to follow its trail of secrecy. To our shock and dismay, many of Pittman’s articles that we found referenced in academic journals about the Fed have been purged from Bloomberg News. (We asked Bloomberg via email to explain its removal of these articles but have yet to hear back. We’ll update this article should we receive a response.)

On September 29, 2008 Pittman authored a piece titled “Goldman, Merrill Collect Billions After Fed’s AIG Bailout Loans.” We could not locate that article at Bloomberg but we did find it on Senator Bernie Sanders’ website. That article explained how the AIG bailout was really a bailout of the big Wall Street banks that had used AIG as a derivatives counterparty to effectively short the subprime mortgage market. As the Fed bailout money went in the front door of AIG, it quickly went out the backdoor to meet its obligations to the big Wall Street banks on the derivative contracts.

On November 10, 2008 Pittman and his colleagues, Bob Ivry and Alison Fitzgerald, wrote an article headlined “Fed Defies Transparency Aim in Refusal to Disclose.” Again, we could not locate that article at Bloomberg News but we found a Google cache of it at Yonkers Tribune. That article reports as follows:

“The Federal Reserve is refusing to identify the recipients of almost $2 trillion of emergency loans from American taxpayers or the troubled assets the central bank is accepting as collateral.

“Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in September they would comply with congressional demands for transparency in a $700 billion bailout of the banking system. Two months later, as the Fed lends far more than that in separate rescue programs that didn’t require approval by Congress, Americans have no idea where their money is going or what securities the banks are pledging in return.”

On December 7, 2008, Pittman authored the article “Wall Street’s Toxic Export.” Again, it appears to be missing from Bloomberg News but we located it at the Seattle Times where it was apparently syndicated at the time. In that article, Pittman wrote this:

“The bundling of consumer loans and home mortgages into packages of securities — a process known as securitization — was the biggest U.S. export business of the 21st century. More than $27 trillion of these securities have been sold since 2001, according to the Securities Industry Financial Markets Association, an industry-trade group. That’s almost twice last year’s U.S. gross domestic product of $13.8 trillion.

“The growth over the past decade was made possible by overseas banks, which saw the profits U.S. financial institutions were making and coveted the made-in-America technology. Wall Street obliged, with disastrous results: two-thirds of a trillion dollars in bank losses, about 40 percent of them outside the U.S.”

On April 16, 2009, Pittman was at it again, writing that the “Fed Shrouding $2 Trillion in Bank Loans in Secrecy.” We could not locate this article at Bloomberg News but it shows up at a website called DSL Reports. In that article, Bernanke is quoted as calling what ends up to be a $29 trillion bailout of Wall Street’s corrupted banks “a strictly temporary measure to create expansionary support in the economy.” The “temporary” measure lasted from December 2007 to at least July 2010 according to an audit of the Fed released in July 2011 by the Government Accountability Office.

Numerous other articles from Pittman during the crisis have likewise gone missing at Bloomberg News.

Pittman’s untimely death brought to a halt what would likely have been the most revealing details of how Wall Street banks colluded to create the subprime instruments that would crash the U.S. housing market and how they were then able to use the Bloomberg data terminal to make short bets against those very same instruments, seeking out the worst securitizations that were doomed to fail.

He explained in brief how the Bloomberg terminal had assisted him thus far in his reporting in an interview with Ryan Chittum at Columbia Journalism Review’s “The Audit” in February 2009. Six months later Pittman was dead. The exchange went like this:

TA [The Audit]: How does the Bloomberg terminal inform your reporting or help you find leads?

MP [Mark Pittman]: Well, I’ll give you an example. The first best story that I did about this—I’m gonna brag about this—was in June of ‘07. It said that subprime bonds are failing and they’re failing at an alarming rate, and they’re going up a lot, and they all need to be downgraded. The ratings companies aren’t following their own criteria for what makes a bond a certain rating. I did that through data that’s available on the Bloomberg. We’ve got a function called DQRP, which gives you delinquency reports on every RMBS, dividing it up by category. So you can pick the worst bonds with the worst stuff and you can divide it up by rating—all kinds of sorting. Nobody has that but us.

TA: I didn’t even know that capability was out there.

MP: Hell yes, man. And it works. Then you can pull up each individual bond and you’ve got a complete description of its geographic reach—how much is in California, all kinds of great stuff. What a weapon! And if you know how to use it, it works pretty well.

We have yet to hear a voice like Mark Pittman’s rise up from the business press today to demand transparency on the hundreds of billions of dollars that the Fed, through the same Federal Reserve Bank of New York that sluiced the bulk of the money to Wall Street in the last crisis, is doing today behind the backs of the American people.

END

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0817/ 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0872   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 16.84 POINTS OR 0.56%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 17.92 POINTS OR 0.07%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 408.34 POINTS OR 1.87%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.51/Euro FALLS TO 1.1008

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.18/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 53.01 and Brent: 48.88

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.46%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.90% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.20%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.36: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.43

3k Gold at $1493.00 silver at: 17.60   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 20/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.43

3m oil into the 53 dollar handle for WTI and 58 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.32 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9974 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0981 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.46%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.69% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.17%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8798..

Stocks, Bonds Rise As Earnings Season Begins

Global markets edged higher on Tuesday even as safe havens were bought as markets tried to balance fading optimism over the latest China-U.S. trade truce with the likelihood of a Brexit deal by Thursday’s European Union summit.

 

However, S&P futures trimmed dropped a quic

k 15 points and treasuries rallied after Bloomberg reported China may “struggle” to buy the volume of American goods proposed in the “phase one” trade deal unless the US cuts tariffs.

MSCI’s index of world stocks rose 0.2% with European stocks climbing briefly to a two-week high after comments from the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator that a deal with Britain over the terms of their divorce was still possible this week. The European STOXX 600 added 0.2%, with 18 of 19 sectors advancing led by retailer shares, with France’s CAC and Germany’s export-oriented DAX both rising while Britain’s FTSE was a touch lower as sterling rose against the dollar and the euro, reflecting the cautious optimism about talks between Britain and the EU.

Yet capping broader gains in equities was a perceived lack of progress coming out of U.S.-China trade negotiations.

Earlier in the session Asian stocks climbed for a third day, led by health care firms, as Japanese shares staged a catch-up rally after a Monday holiday when trade optimism buoyed regional equities. Most markets in the region were up, with Japan leading gains and China retreating. The Topix advanced 1.6% for its biggest gain in more than a month, as Toyota Motor and Daiichi Sankyo provided strong support. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.6%, dragged by PetroChina and 360 Security Technology. China’s factory deflation deepened in September due to slowing economic growth and the comparison with faster gains a year ago.

India’s Sensex rose 0.8%, set for a third day of gains, as investors looked toward September-quarter earnings reports. HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the biggest boosts for the index

Reports of a “Phase 1” trade deal between the United States and China last week had earlier cheered markets but the dearth of details around the agreement has since curbed this enthusiasm with oil prices extending declines, Chinese stocks weaker and the safe-haven yen holding gains versus dollar.

“Not enough was achieved to alter meaningfully the fundamental global economic outlook,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Global growth is still slowing and is below trend … There is still scope for earnings disappointment and the remaining uncertainty from trade tensions means business investment is unlikely to improve markedly.”

The focus is now on Europe where officials from Britain and the EU will meet at a make-or-break summit on Thursday and Friday that will determine whether Britain is headed for a deal to leave the bloc on Oct. 31, a disorderly no-deal exit or a delay. The main sticking point remains the border between EU member Ireland and Northern Ireland, which belongs to Britain. Some EU politicians have expressed guarded optimism that a deal can be reached. However, diplomats from the EU have indicated they are pessimistic about British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s proposed solution for the border and want more concessions. Yet those concerns did little to quash market optimism for now, with Britain expected to make new proposals on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, as algos and buyback programs bought stocks, humans bought bonds, with the 10Y yield dropping to 1.675% while Eurozone bond yields rose with Germany’s benchmark 10-year bond yield was 0.5 basis points higher on the day at -0.45%, flirting with a two-and-a-half month highs reached at the end of last week.

In the currency markets, optimism over a possible Brexit deal lifted sterling by as much as 0.7% to the dollar and approaching a three-month high of $1.2708 and climbing to a five-month high against the euro. The yen, often considered a safe haven in times of economic uncertainty, held steady at 108.33 versus the dollar.

Markets were still analyzing the lack of perceived progress in resolving a prolonged trade row between the United States and China. The United States agreed to delay an Oct. 15 increase in tariffs on Chinese goods while Beijing said it would buy as much as $50 billion of U.S. agricultural products after tense negotiations last week. However, Washington has left in place tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods. Trade experts and China market analysts say the chances are high that Washington and Beijing will fail to agree on any specifics – as happened in May – in time for a mid-November meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Chinese data also added to the woes. The latest numbers showed that China factory gate prices declined at the fastest pace in more than three years in September. That followed customs data on Monday that showed Chinese imports had contracted for a fifth straight month.

Concerns over the health of the global economy weighed heavily on oil prices, with U.S. crude and Brent crude both falling around 1.5% to $52.75 and 58.48 per barrel respectively. By early last week, hedge funds had become the most bearish toward petroleum prices since the start of the year, according to an analysis of position records published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and ICE Futures Europe.

Bank earnings start with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 2,981.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 391.93
  • MXAP up 0.6% to 158.82
  • MXAPJ up 0.05% to 509.44
  • Nikkei up 1.9% to 22,207.21
  • Topix up 1.6% to 1,620.20
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.07% to 26,503.93
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 2,991.05
  • Sensex up 0.8% to 38,524.63
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 6,652.01
  • Kospi up 0.04% to 2,068.17
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to -0.459%
  • Euro down 0.02% to $1.1025
  • Brent Futures down 0.6% to $59.00/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 2.8 bps to 0.572%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.0 bps to 0.201%
  • Brent Futures down 0.6% to $59.00/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.09% to $1,491.86
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.04% to 98.42

Top Overnight News

  • British negotiators submitted a revised set of Brexit plans to Brussels amid growing optimism that a deal could be struck this week
  • There will be a lot to watch when bank earnings kick off on Tuesday morning, with reports from JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co. and money manager BlackRock Inc. all set to hit at or before 8 a.m.
  • Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said U.S. policy makers are facing too-low rates of inflation and the risk of a greater-than-expected slowdown, suggesting he’d favor an additional interest rate cut as insurance.
  • Some of Europe’s strictest ESG funds are snubbing the world’s most liquid investment — the $16 trillion U.S. Treasuries market
  • Investor confidence in Germany’s economic outlook remained weak in the latest sign of concern that the nation has slipped into a recession amid trade tensions

Asian equity markets traded mixed following the lacklustre lead from Wall St where the recent US-China trade optimism was tempered by discrepancies in language between the sides and with China wanting more discussions before signing the deal, while looming earnings added to the tentativeness as the large US banks are to begin announcing Q3 results today. ASX 200 (+0.2%) was choppy with the index pressured by underperformance in the commodity-related sectors and Nikkei 225 (+1.9%) outperformed as it played catch up on return from the extended weekend with Japanese officials willing to consider an additional budget for the typhoon recovery if required. Hang Seng (Unch.) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.6%) were indecisive after the trade exhilaration faded, with the HKMA’s announcement of a countercyclical capital buffer reduction and influx of CNY 40bln from the PBoC’s previously announced targeted RRR cut, doing little to spur risk appetite. The latest inflation figures from China were also somewhat inconclusive as CPI topped estimates to print its highest since 2013 although PPI declined at its fastest pace in more than 3 years. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded subdued as demand was dampened amid the strength in Japanese stocks but with downside also restricted by the BoJ’s presence in the market for JPY 1.21tln of JGBs heavily concentrated in 1yr-10yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Factory Deflation Worsens, Adding to Global Economy Woes
  • Sun Hung Kai Properties Cuts Rents at Some of Its H.K. Malls
  • China Fertilizer Maker on Brink of Bankruptcy Rallies 51%
  • Fund Managers Expect Latitude IPO to Be Pulled: AFR

A choppy session for European equities thus far [Eurostoxx 50 +0.7%] following on from a mixed Asia-Pac session. European equity futures saw upside heading into the cash open amid refuelled Brexit hopes after EU’s Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier struck an upbeat tone regarding a potential Brexit deal by the end of the week; although this has been caveated somewhat by EU Diplomatic sources. That said, futures pared back around half of its gains at the open and continued declining with downside exacerbated by source reports that China will struggle to purchase USD 50bln worth of agri goods. Major bourses in the region are ultimately higher, although UK’s FTSE 100 trades flat as exporters bear the brunt of a firmer Sterling, induced by positive comments from various EU lawmakers. Sectors are all in broadly positive territory although the IT sector is somewhat underperforming as Wirecard shares (-18.5%) plumbed the depths after a fresh FT investigation raised prospect of a concerted effort to fake substantial sales and profit at the company. Wirecard has since dismissed the report as “market speculation”. On the flip side, the financial sector fares better as current Brexit optimism spurred gains in domestic banks with Lloyds Banking Group (+3.4%), RBS (+3.4%) Barclays (+2.1%) all at the top of the FTSE 100. Further, the Italian banking sector is propped up by source reports that Italy is mulling reducing the amount of loan losses that banks can deduct from their taxable income next year. Hence the Italian Banking index opened higher by circa. 1% but has since come off of highs. In terms of individual movers, Indivior (+8.0%) shares spiked higher at the open after the Co. boosted its earnings guidance for a second time this year amid a strong performance of its drug used to treat opioid addiction. Meanwhile, Kloeckner & Co. (-14.3%) shares slumped following a downgrade to its profit outlook due to weaker market conditions.

Top European News

  • U.K. Employment Falls as Brexit Strains Spread to Labor Market
  • U.K. Carmakers Hit by $628 Million Brexit Tab Call for EU Deal
  • Wirecard Drops on News Report Suggesting Accounting Misdeeds
  • German Steelmaker Kloeckner Slumps as Global Slowdown Bites

In FX, cable seemed destined for or at least drawn towards a hefty option expiry at the 1.2600 strike before another bout of Brexit deal positivity boosted the Pound across the board, and this time from the EU’s chief negotiator Barnier who remains hopeful that a deal can still be struck in time for Thursday-Friday’s Summit, but warns that latest UK proposals remain inadequate. He added that the deadline to reach an agreement is COB today, but separate reports suggest that another meeting could be convened before the current October 31 deadline if needed, while the UK Government believes that the cut-off for this week is actually Wednesday evening. However, the situation remains highly fluid and uncertain, with Sterling hostage to headlines, breaking news and unfolding developments, as Cable fades just ahead of 1.2700 and Eur/Gbp rebounds from just under 0.8700 towards highs of 0.8750.

  • NZD/AUD – Not much respite for the Antipodean Dollars following further reflection and assessment by China and the US about the state of trade relations and significance of Phase 1 even though Beijing and Washington appear to be more convergent on certain elements of the accord in principle. Indeed, the Kiwi is still capped ahead of 0.6300 awaiting NZ Q3 CPI after the latest GDT auction, while the Aussie remains some way below 0.6800 in wake of RBA minutes underlining guidance for keeping rates low or easing further if required, and with a decent 625 mn expiry at the big figure.
  • JPY/CAD/EUR/CHF – Comparatively contained trade vs the Greenback again, as the Yen meanders between 108.23-45 and just shy of decent expiry interest residing at 108.00-20 (1.5 bn), while the Loonie is striving to limit losses beyond 1.3240 amidst a deeper retreat in oil prices and Euro remains top heavy into 1.1050, and perhaps also rooted by expiries given 1 bn rolling off just above 1.1000 (1 bn from 1.1015-20). Elsewhere, more soft Swiss inflation inputs via producer/import prices are keeping the Franc depressed just off parity and around 1.1000 against the single currency, as the DXY continues to flit either side of 98.500.
  • EM – More volatility for the Lira, but a recovery of sorts following US sanctions against Turkey that were perhaps not as severe as many were anticipating. Nevertheless, Usd/Try remains elevated within a 5.8605-9320 range and underpinned on the back of a rise in unemployment plus a big swing in the budget balance from small surplus to onerous deficit.
  • RBA Minutes from October 1st meeting stated the board judged case for easing at October meeting outweighed arguments against a move and that it is prepared to ease policy further if needed. RBA also reiterated that it is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low rates would be required, while board members noted global trend of lower rates and discussed the possibility rate cuts could have less impact than in past but judged lower rates will still have an effect through AUD. (Newswires)

In commodities, A downbeat day for WTI and Brent futures thus far as downward pressure resumed as markets tilted towards risk aversion in early EU trade and as optimism surrounding the US-China mini deal fizzles out. Analysts at ING highlight that the ICE Brent Dec/Jan time-spread has also narrowed to a backwardation of around 0.17/bbl vs. 0.77/bbl at the end of September which suggests the “tightness in the prompt market is easing”. In terms of newsflow, OPEC Secretary General Barkindo noted that the physical oil market is relatively tight now and current demand is the market driver. WTI futures took out 53/bbl to the downside and tests 52.50/bbl ahead of the psychological 52.00/bbl mark whilst its Brent counterpart eyes 58/bbl to the downside. As a reminder the weekly API crude inventories have been postponed by a day due to US observing Columbus Day yesterday; as has the EIA release. Elsewhere, gold has climbed off lows amid a turnaround in sentiment and remains in close proximity to 1500/oz vs. an intraday low of around 1488/oz. Copper meanwhile has pulled back during the session, albeit prices remain above 2.62/lb.

US Event Calendar

  • Oct. 15-Oct. 18: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $83.0b, prior $119.1b

Central Bank Calendar

  • 4:25am: Fed’s Bullard Speaks at Bloomberg Conference in London
  • 9am: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on Community Development
  • 12:45pm: Fed’s George Speaks at Payments System Conference
  • 3:30pm: Fed’s Daly Speaks Los Angeles World Affairs Council

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

With it being fairly quiet in markets yesterday – not helped by US bond markets being closed for a holiday – even a small smattering of trade headlines was likely to be the only talking point for investors. Indeed, after radio silence over the weekend, initially it looked like ‘Phase One’ was turning more into ‘Phase Nought Point Five’ after Bloomberg reported that China wants to hold more talks before signing a trade deal with the US. The story went on to say that China may send a team of negotiators led by Vice Premier Liu He to finalise a deal that could be signed at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit next month. The story also suggested that China were advocating for Trump to cancel tariff hikes due in December.

Markets faded immediately after the story broke and continued the trend from late Friday however the S&P 500 later bounced back towards flat on the day after Global Times Editor Hi Xijin tweeted that “based on what I know, China-US trade talks made breakthrough last week and the two sides have the strong will to reach a final deal”. US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin hardly made things any clearer, with CNBC quoting him as saying that he has every expectation that if a US-China trade deal is not in place, December tariffs will be imposed, but that he also expects a deal. So make of that what you will. Clearly there is still lots of headline volatility likely in the weeks ahead with my concern being less about “phase one” but what happens to all the unresolved issues after that. Anyway by the end of play the S&P 500 closed -0.14% lower with materials (-0.74%) leading the move lower, while financials eked out a +0.12% gain ahead of earnings season starting today. The DOW and NASDAQ finished -0.11% and -0.10% respectively, though volumes were around 30% lower than usual. In Europe, the STOXX 600 ended -0.49% but that was after trading as low as -1.15% while elsewhere Gold (+0.21%) was slightly higher and WTI (-2.15%) fell sharply to perfectly retrace Friday’s gain. The small risk off also helped 10y Bund yields edge down -1.5bps. 10 year Gilts rallied -6.7bps as Brexit deal euphoria was dampened down after the mixed weekend news (more below). As mentioned, US bond markets were closed, but the dollar did strengthen +0.22%. One of the bigger underperformers was the Turkish lira (-0.73%) which depreciated after reports that the US is preparing financial sanctions on individuals in response to the offensive in Syria. We indeed got those sanctions as US markets closed with the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin saying that the US has sanctioned the Turkish ministers of defense, interior and energy while adding that there will also be primary and secondary sanctions for any financial institutions doing significant transactions. The sanctions will also include penalties which will raise steel tariffs on Turkey back to 50%, the level before a reduction in May, and the US would halt negotiations over a $100 bn trade pact. He added that, “these sanctions are very, very strong”. However, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, accused Trump of unleashing “an escalation of chaos and insecurity in Syria” and added, “His announcement of a package of sanctions against Turkey falls very short of reversing that humanitarian disaster.” In spite of the imposition of these sanctions, the Turkish lira is actually trading up +0.10% this morning.

Looking ahead, the good news for markets today is that we should at least get a temporary distraction from trade and Brexit with some potentially important earnings to dissect with JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo all due to report. Our US equity strategists recently put out a note and highlighted that the bottom-up analyst consensus for S&P 500 EPS has been falling for a year and with a typical beat implies flat earnings (+0.8% vs +3.5% in Q2). Their top-down model, however, points lower (-1.5%) suggesting below average beats and a disappointing earnings season. The top-down drivers of earnings have weakened across the board with falling macro growth the biggest drag (-7pp). There is growing evidence of a weakening in pricing power, with corporates focused on the next set of levers to press, including cuts in hours worked and slowing employment growth. See their report here .

Ahead of all this, Asian markets are trading mixed with the Nikkei up +1.88% after reopening from the long weekend while the Shanghai Comp (-0.53%) is down. The Hang Seng (-0.06%) and Kospi (+0.05%) are flattish. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.22% and crude oil prices are down a further c. -0.70% this morning. As for overnight data releases, China’s September CPI came in at +3.0% yoy (vs. +2.9% yoy expected) while PPI printed in line with consensus at -1.2% yoy. The rise in CPI was mainly due to food prices climbing 11.2% and a more than 69% jump in pork prices, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

As for Brexit, there were some back-and-forth headlines and a corresponding seesaw in the pound. Sterling fell as much as -1.20% during yesterday’s trading session to 1.252, but has retraced and is up 0.81% from that level this morning. Initially, there was some fading of last week’s slightly premature euphoria and also concern over Barnier’s comments about potential technical challenges and the DUP Dodds’ cautious comments over the weekend. Notwithstanding the weakness yesterday, the most significant point to make right now is that the UK government position has undergone a notable transformation over the last couple weeks to a position where they are negotiating around a version of the EU’s 2017 backstop with potential concessions for the DUP. DB’s Oli Harvey made the point yesterday that assuming PM Johnson doesn’t have a change of heart, this removes the tail risks – if there isn’t a deal by Saturday we will either get a caretaker government, or an election fought between parties that all want a deal (with the exception of the Brexit Party). Overnight the U.K. Telegraph say their sources suggest that talks are inching positively towards a deal, citing “last-minute compromises,” even if they might require an additional EU summit next week to get things over the line. The DUP leadership were also reported to be in talks at no.10 last night so things are hotting up behind the scenes. Elsewhere, Ireland’s foreign minister Simon Coveney said that there was goodwill and determination from both sides to get a deal, but that “it’s too early to say whether it’s possible to get a breakthrough this week or whether it will move into next week”. The BBC also reported overnight that the EU is mulling new emergency summit to ‘get Brexit deal done’. In addition, Mr Barnier will update the EU ministers today at the General Affairs Council in Luxembourg where he is expected to give a press conference. So one to watch.

Finally, it was a very quiet day for data yesterday with only the August industrial production print for the Euro Area. The +0.4% mom reading was slightly ahead of expectations for +0.3% and it followed a -0.4% mom reading in July. Combined with slightly better retail sales data, that points to a very modest positive for Euro Area growth. In the US, the Empire manufacturing survey rose to 4.0, from 2.0 in September.

To the day ahead now, which this morning includes final September CPI revisions in France, August/September employment data in the UK and the October ZEW survey in Germany. In the US the only data due out is the October empire manufacturing print. Away from that it’s a busy day for Fedspeak with Bullard, Bostic, George and Daly all scheduled. The BoE’s Carney is also due to testify on the financial stability report this morning while the BoE’s Vlieghe speaks at lunch time. As mentioned above, US bank earnings from JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup will also be a big focus. Finally, the World Bank and IMF meetings will kick off with the World Outlook document expected around 2pm London time, which always gets headlines. This time notable global growth downgrades are likely.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.84 POINTS OR 0.56%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 17.92 POINTS OR 0.07%   /The Nikkei closed UP 408.34 POINTS OR 1.87%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .08%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0817 /Oil UP TO 53.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and 58,88 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0817 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0872 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

After you read this, please read Lee Adler’s piece below. …same problem..lack of cash/liquidity

(zerohedge)

“Hard To Obtain Liquidity” – South Korea’s Largest Hedge Fund Halts Redemptions

First it was the shocking junk bond fiasco at Third Avenue which led to a premature end for the asset manager, then the three largest UK property funds suddenly froze over $12 billion in assets in the aftermath of the Brexit vote; two years later the Swiss multi-billion fund manager GAM blocked redemptions, followed by iconic UK investor Neil Woodford also suddenly gating investors despite representations of solid returns and liquid assets, and most recently the ill-named, Nataxis-owned H20 Asset Management decided to freeze redemptions. Most recently, Arrowgrass Capital Partners shuttered when it slashed the valuation of its stake in Britain’s oldest surviving amusement park, piling further losses on investors in Nick Niell’s closed hedge fund.

By this point, a pattern had emerged, one which Bank of England Governor Mark Carney described best when he said that investment funds that promise to allow customers to withdraw their money on a daily basis are “built on a lie.” At roughly the same time, the chief investment officer of Europe’s biggest independent asset manager agreed with him, because while for much of 2019 the biggest risk bogeymen were corporate credit, leveraged loans, and trillions in negative yielding debt, gradually consensus emerged that investment funds themselves – and specifically their illiquid investments- gradually emerged as the basis for the next financial crisis.

“There is no point denying we are faced with a looming liquidity mismatch problem,” said Pascal Blanque, who oversees more than 1.4 trillion euros ($1.6 trillion) as the CIO of Amundi SA, adding that the prospect of melting liquidity is one of “various things keeping me awake at night.”

Fast forward to today and South Korea’s largest hedge fund the latest reminder to investors just how toxic the threat of illiquid securities is.

 

As Bloomberg reports, Lime Asset Management, South Korea’s largest hedge fund with about $4 billion of assets, suspended withdrawals from more funds on Monday, freezing a total of $710 million of its portfolio, after the firm said last week it couldn’t sell assets fast enough to meet redemption demands.

The hedge fund halted an additional 243.6 billion won ($210 million) today after freezing funds worth 603 billion won on Oct. 10, Won Jong-Jun, chief executive officer at the Seoul-based firm, said in a press briefing this afternoon.

“Due to the recent drop in the Kosdaq market and also declines in stocks of companies we’ve invested in, it became hard to obtain liquidity by converting the bonds into the stocks as we planned,” Won said at the briefing.

A further 489 billion won of funds may also be restricted from withdrawals, he said.

“Because of the issues at Lime, other hedge funds that had no problem with their convertibles may face doubts from investors who may be reluctant to keep investing in CBs,” said Kim Pil-kyu, senior research fellow at Korea Capital Market Institute. “Maybe we need to make this bond market more transparent, but it won’t be that easy.”

*  *  *

Incidentally, for those wondering if liquidity remains an illusion – a test that can only be confirmed when there is a crash and the market is indefinitely halted, an outcome that is now virtually inevitable – Deutsche Bank has a simple test: it all has to do with the sequence of events unleashed by widening spreads, where redemptions and first movers rush to sell, collapsing the market’s liquidity, freezing refinancings, and resulting in a surge in defaults and firesales, which in turn leads to even wider spreads and so on, until central banks have to step in to short circuit this toxic loop.

This also explains why GAM, Woodford, H20, Arrowgrass and many more funds (in the near future), will be similarly gated once their investors discover there is no liquidity to sell into and the only “real time” liquidity is offered to those who have a “first seller mover advantage”, to wit:

  • If investors anticipate severe losses on the fund’s investments, they could be incentivised to “run for the exit” to be the first to redeem their shares.
  • The first-mover advantage in open-ended funds arises because losses on asset sales to meet redemptions are incurred by investors which remain in the fund.
  • As in a ‘bank run’, the asset manager is, in principle, forced to sell assets in a fire sale in order to meet its short-dated liabilities

This dramatic imbalance of asset holdings at market making banks and buyside “bagholders” of illiquid securities, is now posing a major problem for regulators, something the Bank of England acknowledged in a working paper published earlier this month, and highlighted by Mark Gilbert, to wit: “as the funds industry has supplanted banks as a source of credit in the past decade, households and companies have benefited from a useful alternative source of financing. But, the report warned, we don’t know how this market-based system will respond under stress.”

Modelling such a scenario “can generate an adverse feedback loop in which lower asset prices cause solvency/liquidity constraints to bind, pushing asset prices lower still,” the BOE found. In other words, the new market structure may be worse than the old.

And, as recent notable fund “gates” and/or collapses have shown, the difficulty for asset managers in such an eventuality is finding sufficient cash to repay exiting investors while preserving the structure of the portfolio without distorting market prices, according to Amundi’s Blanque.

According to Bloomberg, part of Amundi’s response to this seemingly intractable issue is to include liquidity buffers in its portfolios, which may mean holding securities such as German bunds and U.S. Treasuries, which should always trade freely. But the industry needs to come up with a common definition so that liquidity is included along with risk and return when assessing a portfolio’s robustness, Blanque says. Additionally, this band aid only works for modest redemptions. A wholesale liquidation would crush even the most “buffered” up fund.

For now, asset managers have to cope with what Blanque called “the sacred cow” – although a better phrase would be “constant risk” of allowing clients to withdraw funds on a daily basis.

“It is a bomb, given the risks of liquidity mismatch,” he warns.

“We don’t know if what is sellable today will be sellable in six months’ time.”

That’s not the only we don’t know. As Blanque concluded, “we don’t know the channels of transmission, we don’t know how the actors will act. It is uncharted territory.”

And that, precisely, is why central banks can never again allow risk asset prices to drop: the alternative means gating not one, or two, or a hundred funds, but halting the entire market, because once everyone start selling and price discovery finally returns to a market that has been dominated by central banks for the past decade, several generations of traders and investors who have grown up without price discovery will be shocked to discover just where “fair” market prices reside.

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

Hong Kong

Ton Luongo outlines what he thinks is going on with all of those Hong Kong protests

(Tom Luongo)

Victory Or Fire: That’s The Plan For Hong Kong

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, n’ Guns blog,

It’s become quite clear to me that the situation in Hong Kong is now about regime change through economic terrorism. What started as peaceful protests against an extradition law and worry over reunification with China has morphed into an ugly and vicious assault on the city’s economic future.

These are being perpetrated by the so-called “Block Bloc,” roving bands of mask-wearing, police-tactic defying vandals attacking randomly around the city to disrupt people going to work.

 

Pepe Escobar has been doing exemplary work in recent months covering the ins and outs of Asian politics. His latest article covers the “Black Bloc,” their tactics and who’s likely behind them in Hong Kong.

More likely to be informed is Hong Kong garment and media tycoon Jimmy Lai, billionaire publisher of the pro-democracy Apple Daily, the city’s Chinese Communist Party critic-in-chief and highly visible interlocutor of official Washington, DC, notables such as US Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and ex-National Security Council head John Bolton.

On September 6, before the onset of the deranged vandalism and violence that have defined Hong Kong “pro-democracy protests” over the past several weeks, Lai spoke with Bloomberg TV’s Stephen Engle from his Kowloon home.

He pronounced himself convinced that – if protests turned violent China would have no choice but to send People’s Armed Police units from Shenzen into Hong Kong to put down unrest.

“That,” he said on Bloomberg TV, “will be a repeat of the Tiananmen Square massacre and that will bring in the whole world against China….. Hong Kong will be done, and … China will be done, too.”

Jimmy Lai is telling you what the strategy is here. The goal is to thoroughly undermine China’s standing on the world stage and raise that of the U.S. This is economic warfare, it’s a hybrid war tactic. And the soldiers are radicalized kids in uniforms bonking old men on the heads with sticks and taunting cops.

Sound familiar? Because that’s what’s going on in places like Portland, Oregon with Antifa. Except in Portland the government is the one turning a blind eye to the growing violence in pursuit of the cause.

And that cause is chaos.

Now whether or not this strategy of roving bands of vandals will work to stop China’s takeover of Hong Kong at the appointed time is still up in the air.

But, in my mind, it’s clear that there is a much larger game afoot here than just Hong Kong. This is an Empire Waning trying to maintain its position against an Empire Rising.

Looking at the total geopolitical picture, I’m surprised that Pepe didn’t see the connection between China/Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia/Iran. Because it is clear as day to me.

He even gets the money quote in his article and misses it. In his recounting a conversation with a prominent member of the Chinese diaspora we get the following:

Via mutual Chinese diaspora connections that hark back to the handover era, he agreed to talk on background. Let’s call him Mr. E.

In the aftermath of dark Friday, Mr. E is still appalled: “Not only you’re harming the people making their living in businesses, companies, shopping malls. You’re destroying subway stations. You’re destroying our streets. You’re destroying our hard-earned reputation as a safe, international business center. You’re destroying our economy.”

He cannot explain why there was not a single police officer in sight, for hours, as the rampage continued.

In a piece called, “A Peg for a Peg: That’s the West’s Offer for China” I outline the real stakes at play here. The Black Bloc are attacking commerce.

The goal? Break Hong Kong by breaking the peg of the Hong Kong dollar to the U.S. dollar.

A collapse of the Hong Kong dollar peg, like all price floors/ceilings, is inevitable. Pegging one currency to another will always create an unsustainable imbalance of payments that the central bank can only cover for so long.

In Hong Kong’s case the peg has fueled, alongside China’s spectacular growth, a property market that is insanely over-valued. So, attacking the value of said property is how you attack the peg.

The longer these protests go on, fueled and organized by outside elements (read US and British intelligence actors), the higher the probability that capital will flee Hong Kong and undermine the peg, creating a massive market dislocation overnight.

Think back to 2015 when the Swiss National Bank finally broke its peg to the euro after having turned itself into a hedge fund trying to stop the appreciation of the franc versus the euro. The bottom fell out of the euro/franc pair overnight, adjusting 30% in a matter of minutes.

When a major peg like that breaks, systems break. Societies break as well.

I’ve said from the beginning of these protests that the extradition law wasn’t about ‘freedom,’ it was about China wanting to extradite U.S. and British intelligence agents working at British banks. The very real angst over China’s takeover of Hong Kong was cynically stoked at the outset.

How does this relate to the Saudi Arabia/Iran conflict? If Saudi Arabia doesn’t sue for peace with the Houthis, and, by extension, Iran then it is going to lose everything. Pepe was the first person that I saw who reported on the possibility of a Houthi attack on Medina or Mecca as a death blow to the Saudi regime.

The Saudi Riyal is pegged to the dollar as the lynchpin for the petrodollar system that under girds the global offshore dollar system, which is undergoing sincere liquidity problems now and into the future.

The petrodollar is dying and I agree with Martin Armstrong that it won’t be important in the long run, but it still is in the minds of the men setting U.S. policy. So that makes it important when analyzing the motives of the men setting the policy.

So, the gambit is simple. If China, doesn’t stop undermining U.S. relationships with our allies by investing in Iran or offering to buy Saudi oil in Yuan then we are going to burn Hong Kong to the ground.

Attacking Hong Kong’s peg while the threat to the Saudi Arabian peg is real makes perfect sense.

The evolution of these protests, never truly organic in the first place, against an avalanche of virulent anti-China propaganda is a very dangerous thing. From basketball to a stupid card game like Hearthstone China’s influence on U.S. corporate institutions is now front page news to justify what’s happening in the minds of virtue signaling Americans.

The secondary goal? To turn the U.S. electorate even more anti-China than they were before by appealing to their self-righteousness.

The reality is that for companies like the NBA and Blizzard revenue from China matters and it matters more every day, certainly for Blizzard. And part of what the wake up call for Americans is that loss of exceptionalism as consumers. Someone else can have a say in how our people act and that galls us.

Welcome to the rest of the world. Put down the crappy Starbucks coffee for a second and realize that we’ve been doing this exact thing to foreign companies for decades.

Because we wouldn’t think twice if Blizzard stripped a kid of his title for shouting Antifa crap. So why should China tolerate it?

This is especially true because both acts would be purely staged political theater bought and paid for by the very people the kid thinks he’s fighting against.

I’m not absolving China here. Their social credit system is abominable. Their state capitalism is a teetering edifice of dominoes. The angst over Hong Kong becoming part of China is real and justified.

I’m just not buying the gaslighting of it as some existential threat to our freedoms when the same tactics of marginalization and censorship are eroding our freedoms here.

China’s the bogeyman here.

Because Hong Kong is a blueprint folks. So is Portland. And the goal of all those images of huge protests from three months ago was to keep us thinking that’s the reality is in Hong Kong now and forever.

It’s not. It’s just a bunch of radicalized (and paid for) roaming pawns attempting a regime change operation against the wishes of the majority of the people organized by external forces scared of their coming and rightful retribution.

And like the mobs at the end of Joker, once unleashed they won’t be content until the city burns because, ‘everything must go’ and the system liquidated.

Because that’s who the elites have outsourced their operations to without a care in the world what happens to the people they’ve ‘liberated.’

The question is are you going to look on this and smile?

end
China
Huge price gains in pork has now sent China’s CPI to a 6 year high.  We also have factory deflation as there is just
too much capacity.
(Zerohedge)

Pork-Panic Sends China CPI To 6 Year Highs As Factory Deflation Deepens

China’s producer prices deflated for the 3rd straight month, slumping 1.2% YoY – the biggest deflationary impulse since July 2016 – but, thanks to the explosion in pork prices (as ‘pig ebola’ spreads), Chinese consumers are facing the worst inflation since 2013.

  • China Sept CPI +3.0% YoY (2.9% exp and 2.9% prior)
  • China Sept PPI -1.2% YoY (-1.2% exp and -0.8% prior)

Source: Bloomberg

 

“The return to PPI deflation since July is not only acting as a drag on manufacturing investment, already under stress from U.S.-China trade tensions and supply-chain relocation, but also poses a major risk for onshore corporate debt refinancing,” Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at research firm TS Lombard, said before the data.

“Sustained PPI deflation, where the monthly rate remained below -2% for more than three to six months, would be a likely catalyst for the reversion to old-style credit stimulus.”

The biggest driver of China’s consumer price inflation was food prices, which rose 11.2% (highest since Oct 2011), thanks to pork prices surging 69.3% YoY – the biggest spike since 2007.

Source: Bloomberg

The divergence between CPI and PPI is boxing Chinese officials into a corner, fearful of broad-based rate-cuts to rescue PPI from deflationary hell sending CPI even higher, but analysts are hopeful this is ‘transitory’…

“Surging pork prices as a result of the African swine fever outbreak could cause headline consumer price inflation to increase beyond the 3% official target in the coming months,” Tommy Wu, senior economist at Oxford Economics Hong Kong Ltd, wrote in a report before the data. “But we don’t think that CPI inflation will rise substantially beyond the target and create a major constraint on Chinese monetary policy.”

Yuan showed little to no reaction to these mixed signals.

As we detailed previously, African swine fever, which has been raging across China, and Asia, has decimated pork supplies.

Pork prices are likely to remain elevated for some time, said Betty Wang, a senior economist at ANZ. She said farmers had culled so many pigs that it would take a while for supplies to build up again. “If people feel that food inflation is going up, it may spur policy actions,” she added, although it wasn’t clear just how Beijing can find a quick and easy substitute to domestic farms.

An apparent trade truce between China and the US reached last Friday could be what China needs to stabilize its pork supplies.

China has said it could import as much as 400,000 tons of pork as domestic supplies shrink. The country is likely to boost purchases of pork from the US in the coming weeks.

END

Beining now wants tariffs removed before committing to its 50 billion in farm good purchases

(zerohedge)

Beijing Wants Tariffs Removed Before Committing To $50BN In Farm-Goods Purchases

Yesterday, we learned that our suspicions were correct, and that the US-China “Phase One” deal purportedly hashed out between the two sides last week appears to be more of the same disingenuous stalling, and that, fundamentally, the situation hasn’t really changed.

And on Tuesday, with the US back from the long holiday weekend, Chinese officials have essentially confirmed that they are back to their old tricks, and that the progress on the ‘Phase One’ deal that was touted last week is a sham. Beijing can make good on the $50 billion of annual agricultural goods purchases that it has promised – but only if Washington agrees to remove all of the trade war tariffs.

Of course, as President Trump has repeatedly made clear, the tariffs must remain in place until a deal has been implemented and Beijing has proven that it has been abiding by the rules. According to BloombergChina will struggle to buy $50 billion of US farm goods unless the tariffs are removed.

Unsurprisingly, futures slumped on the news…

 

…but they’ve since rebounded somewhat as renewed Brexit-deal optimism has helped lift risk broadly across the world. Meanwhile, Treasuries have climbed and the curve has steepened, with the 10-year yield falling 5 bps to 1.68%

On Friday, Trump heralded China’s promise of more agriculture purchases as a victory for American farmers. Now, it’s looking like Beijing is going to press him on that. The message is clear: No more farm goods will be purchased until some or all of the tariffs are removed.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

Looks like we are close to the Brexit deal

(zerohedge)

Sterling Spikes As EU Touts ‘Brexit Breakthrough’

Update (1030ET): Bloomberg reports, according to two people with knowledge of the negotiations, confirm the earlier rumors that the U.K. and EU are inching closer to a draft Brexit deal. Any deal will hinge on U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson getting the support of Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party.

As the headlines hit, Cable broke above the $1.27 level, the highest since since June 25.

 

*  *  *

As we detailed earlier, what a difference a week can make.

One week ago, hopes for a last-minute Brexit withdrawal deal before the Oct. 31 deadline had reached a nadir after a reportedly contentious call between UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. But a carefully orchestrated meeting with Johnson’s Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar, seen as the EU27 leader most sympathetic to a modified deal proposed by Johnson, revived hopes for an agreement on Thursday, and though some doubts reemerged over the weekend, the general tone of comments made by top EU officials, including chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, has been positive.

Michel Barnier

@MichelBarnier

I have just debriefed EU27 Ministers in Luxembourg. 🇪🇺 unity remains strong. We want an agreement that works for everybody: the whole & whole .

On route back to Brussels to take stock w/ my colleagues.

Talks are difficult but I believe an agreement is still possible.

View image on Twitter

BBC Politics

@BBCPolitics

A Brexit deal “is still possible this week”, says EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier, adding, “It is high time to turn good intentions (into) legal text”http://bbc.in/2B9KkmZ

Embedded video

The latest bullish comments come courtesy of Barnier, who warned that, although the UK’s proposal is complex and the EU is still trying to suss out all of the implications of Johnson’s proposed alternative to the Irish backstop, the EU27’s chief Brexit negotiator is optimistic that a deal will get done this week.

Barnier has requested that Johnson submit a revised plan to Brussels by midnight on Tuesday.

Following rumors that the British government wouldn’t be able to meet Barnier’s midnight deadline, Bloomberg reported that British negotiators have submitted a revised plan to Brussels Tuesday morning. Though it’s slightly past Barnier’s Tuesday-night deadline, Johnson and his team reportedly expect to have a draft legal text ready for diplomats to scrutinize by Wednesday.

Fortunately for Johnson – who lost a critical source of leverage, the prospect of the UK leaving without a deal, when Parliament passed the Benn Act last month last month, legally requiring him to request another Article 50 delay if Parliament hasn’t passed a new deal, or voted in favor of ‘no deal’, by end of day on Oct. 19. – French President Emmanuel Macron reportedly expressed reservations about approving another extension of the Brexit deadline beyond a “technical” extension of a few days to finish hashing out the final deal.

Though Macron caved last time around, the notion that the EU27 might not be able to muster the unanimous support for another extension offers Johnson more leverage. Even better: Macron praised Johnson’s new plan as a “serious” proposal.

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

PM has just spoken to Macron – hear the 2 men both acknowledged there was positive momentum towards getting a deal done and avoiding delays but lots of hurdles to overcome still

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

Like last time, sounds like France less keen on extending the process again compared to some other member states – in theory, that might be helpful to UK, altho last time round, Macron agreed with the others to extend again

Throughout the entire Brexit ordeal, most of the big sell-side banks have maintained that the most likely outcome is that a deal will ultimately be reached before the UK leaves the EU (or Brexit will be called off altogether).

On Tuesday, JP Morgan’s credit strategists assured the bank’s clients that they can pare back their no-deal Brexit protection. Meanwhile, Mark Carney offered some “insight” into how the events of the next three weeks might impact the pound.

Jack Maidment

@jrmaidment

Mark Carney tells the Treasury Select Committee that ‘there will be material moves’ in the value of the pound in the run up to the October 31 Brexit deadline.

He says those moves could go either way depending on events. 📈📉

Jack Maidment

@jrmaidment

Mark Carney tells the Treasury Select Committee that ‘there will be material moves’ in the value of the pound in the run up to the October 31 Brexit deadline.

He says those moves could go either way depending on events. 📈📉

Jack Maidment

@jrmaidment

Mark Carney on what Brexit could do to the value of the pound:

‘This process is going to break one way or the other and the pound is going to move either up or down – there is great investment advice from your governor.’

As parliamentary support for Johnson’s deal grows, analysts have noted the complexity of what Johnson is proposing to replace the hated Irish Backstop. Essentially, Johnson’s plan allows for a new backstop where Northern Ireland will exist in two customs zones, the UK’s and the EU’s. Importers in Northern Ireland will initially pay the higher EU tariff rate, but if the goods ultimately end up staying in Northern Ireland and not crossing into the Republic of Ireland, importers will be able to apply for a rebate.

Whatever happens, the EU is hoping to have a deal in place so that both sides can iron out the last remaining details and stamp it with their seal of approval during an upcoming EU Council summit.

END
UK
 This is rather telling! England’s premier equity fund , the Woodford Equity Income Fund is to be liquidated
(zerohedge)

“Complete Demise” – Neil Woodford’s Flagship Equity Fund To Be Liquidated 

When discussing over the summer the ongoing devastation of investing “legend” Neil Woodford, and the accelerating redemptions of the $4.7 billion Woodford Equity Income Fund, then a suspension of all redemptions, it sent shockwaves across the global asset management arena in June.

“I can’t remember anything quite like this” said Peter Walls, veteran manager of the Unicorn Mastertrust fund, after trading in Woodford’s fund was suspended. “I mean going back over decades really, there were quite a few funds that just didn’t pick up the telephone and suspended dealing in the dark days of the crash of ’87 and black Monday and all that but this is quite big stuff,” he said in an interview with CityWire over the summer.

And now, the fallout and post-mortem begins: as Woodford has been fired from his equity fund and assets are to be immediately liquidated.

Link Fund Solutions (LFS), the administrator of LF Woodford Equity Income Fund, hired BlackRock Inc. to initiate a complete liquidation of the fund, according to a statement from LFS, reported Bloomberg.

Woodford rejected LFS’ decision in a statement that read: “This was Link’s decision and one I cannot accept, nor believe is in the long-term interests of LF Woodford Equity Income fund investors.”

Link said the equity fund was frozen in June after a mass exodus of investors.

It could take BlackRock several months to sell the holdings of the fund as many of the investments are illiquid.

The fund is expected to incur significant losses upon the sale of all assets.

Investors might not be able to see any capital return by 1Q20. The exact amount of investors affected by the implosion of the fund is unknown, but hundreds of thousands of investors will likely be affected.

Woodford, the once star stockpicker, lost his magic touch several years ago, and ever since, the fund has experienced 22 straight months of investor withdrawals.

“We have seen the complete demise of the most famous fund manager the U.K. has seen for years,” said Adrian Lowcock, head of personal investing at Willis Owen. “It will shake the funds industry to its core.”

Lowcock said: “This collapse is on a par with the implosion of New Star at the height of the financial crisis.” 

Shares of Woodford Patient Capital Trust have collapsed 60% in the last nine months, and in the last several weeks, continue to hit record lows.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY

Not only does Turkey hold 3.5 migrants but it also holds 50 tactical USA nukes

(zerohedge)

Erdogan Holding 50 US Tactical Nukes ‘Hostage’ As Trump Authorizes Sanctions

Amid all the media and pundit outrage since Turkey’s President Erdogan launched his so-called ‘Operation Peace Spring’ into northeast Syria last week, vowing to wipe out Syrian Kurdish forces who’ve long held the border areas, what’s been largely missing is acknowledgement of the uncomfortable fact that NATO ally Turkey has long hosted a major portion of America’s nuclear Cold War-era arsenal stored across Europe.

And as Erdogan threatens to “open the doors and send 3.6 million migrants” to Europe while under increased international criticism for the rapidly rising civilian death toll in Syria, The New York Timesreports the following bombshell Monday: some 50 US tactical nukes are “now essentially Erdogan’s hostages”.

 

File image via DefenseWorld.net

The Times cites growing alarm by top State and Energy Dept. officials over what the publication likens as a “disastrous” and confusing break from US policy in northern Syria, given not only further expected destabilization in the region, but worsening and unpredictable ties with Erdogan’s Turkey, given Trump is now preparing to sign into effect severe sanctions with the aim of attempting to “limit” his military incursion.

According to the report:

And over the weekend, State and Energy Department officials were quietly reviewing plans for evacuating roughly 50 tactical nuclear weapons that the United States had long stored, under American control, at Incirlik Air Base in Turkey, about 250 miles from the Syrian border, according to two American officials.

Turkey is among a handful of European NATO allies which play host to the extensive US nuclear arsenal on European soil  a remnant and continuation of the historic Cold War build-up — when Washington was locked in battle to deter Soviet expansion in Europe, which also allowed US allies to not have to pursue their own nukes.

The further irony in all this is that Incirlik Air Base is precisely where during the opening years of the war in Syria, US intelligence and military officials teamed up with their Turkish counterparts to wage proxy war against Assad, which involved fueling the jihadist insurgency which birthed the very groups now slaughtering Syrian Kurds and Christians in the country’s northeast.

 

File image of a B61-12 guided nuclear bomb. Screengrab of US Air Force Video.

The NYT report continues:

Those weapons, one senior official said, were now essentially Erdogan’s hostages. To fly them out of Incirlik would be to mark the de facto end of the Turkish-American alliance. To keep them there, though, is to perpetuate a nuclear vulnerability that should have been eliminated years ago.

It’s believed that across Europe the US has some 150 US nuclear weapons at various bases, “specifically B61 gravity bombs,” according to a leaked NATO report which gained widespread media coverage earlier this year.

Via Statista: “The B61 is a low to intermediate-yield strategic and tactical thermonuclear gravity bomb which deatures a two-stage radiation implosion design. It is capable of being deployed on a range of aircraft such as the F-15E, F-16 and Tornado. It can be released at speeds up to Mach 2 and dropped as low as 50 feet where it features a 31 second delay to allow the delivery aircraft to escape the blast radius.”

After it appears US special forces stationed in the northern Syria town of Kobane came under Turkish artillery fire last Friday, Jeffrey Lewis of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies observed, “I think this is a first — a country with U.S. nuclear weapons stationed in it literally firing artillery at US forces,” as cited in the Times report.

This also as Erdogan threatened last week, not for the first time: “Hey EU, wake up. I say it again: if you try to frame our operation there as an invasion, our task is simple: we will open the doors and send 3.6 million migrants to you,” he said.

We noted previously how Erdogan is feeling emboldened vis-a-vis Europe, especially given the EU’s Monday decision not to impose a Europe-wide arms embargo at the urging of France and Germany, which one top Turkish official called “a joke”.

The fact is Erdogan has all the leverage, again in the form of millions or refugees he’s threatened to flood Europe’s borders with.

And now, add to this the ultimate leverage of hosting some 50 US/NATO tactical nukes. Erdogan will indeed hold these weapons “hostage” if it comes down to it.

end
Turkey/Russia/Syria/Manbij
Syrian forces along with the Russians have now taken over Manbij in a planned move against Turkey
(zerohedge)

Pentagon Confirms Manbij Handed Over To Russia As US Forces Filmed Departing

A stunning development in the key northern Syrian city of Manbij — the Pentagon has confirmed a planned handover to Russian military forces is underway amid a Turkish military assault on the region. This also hours after President Trump tweeted that Assad “wants naturally to protect the Kurds” and that the problem should be left to local powers.

Late Monday the main US base in Manbij was filmed empty of US forces, and American convoys were also spotted hastily pulling out of the city as Syrian national forces entered, following Sunday’s historic deal between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Assad government. Newsweek reports the developments follows:

The U.S. military has begun a hasty exit from Syria’s northern city of Manbij, and is set to help Russia establish itself there amid a Turkish attempt to defeat Kurdish-led, Pentagon-backed fighters at the strategic location, Newsweek has learned.

 

Russian troops in Syria, illustrative file image.

As the Syrian national flag went up over multiple previously US-backed SDF towns on Monday, it was as yet unclear what Russia’s role in all this would be. Through Monday there were also widespread rumors that Russian jets were circling over key border posts as Turkish forces shelled Kurdish positions below.

The Newsweek report suggests, as we predicted, the blistering fast developments clearly are being driven by significant Russian deal-making among all parties, surprisingly including the US, apparently:

A senior Pentagon official told Newsweek that U.S. personnel, “having been in the area for longer, has been assisting the Russian forces to navigate through previously unsafe areas quickly.”

Aylina Kılıç

@AylinaKilic

A Pentagon official says will be handed over to as Russian journalist Oleg Blokhin films a video of the abandoned military base in the town.

Video: @Kyruer

Embedded video

And the US coalition spokesman has now confirmed much of Newsweek’s reporting, announcing a “deliberate withdrawal” from Manbij and northeast Syria, saying, “We are out of Manbij”.

OIR Spokesman Col. Myles B. Caggins III

@OIRSpox

Coalition forces are executing a deliberate withdrawal from northeast Syria. We are out of Manbij. // تقوم قوات التحالف بتنفيذ إنسحاب مدروس من شمال شرق سوريا. لقد غادرنا منبج

This will of course make it impossible for pro-Turkish forces to take the town, and it’s likely that Erdogan may have been privy to Russian plans from the start.

“It is essentially a handover,” the official continued to Newsweek. “However, it’s a quick out, not something that will include walk-throughs, etc., everything is about making out with as much as possible of our things while destroying any sensitive equipment that cannot be moved.”

Local footage aired by RT showed the unprecedented moment a retreating column of US forces from Manbij passed a truck full of Syrian Army troops, headed the opposite direction. 

US forces had helped its SDF partner force administer Manbij since liberating the mixed majority-Arab town from ISIS in 2016.

It’s remarkable that President Trump has apparently ordered the rapid handover to Russian and Syrian national forces, which is likely to bringer a quicker end to the now over eight-year long war than was expected.

Meanwhile it appears that after five years Raqqa is also now back under Syrian government control.

Liz Sly

@LizSly

Raqqa. the Islamic State’s capital for three years before US & SDF forces drove it out, is back under Syrian government control – witnesses. Military vehicles driving around.

This just as the White House has authorized sanctions on Turkey over the “destabilizing actions” related to its ‘Operation Peace Spring’ in northeast Syria.

end
Turkey
This is not good!!  Turkey deliberately released ISIS prisoners and then they blamed the Kurds..what doorknobs..
(zerohedge)

US Officials: Turkey Deliberately Releasing ISIS Prisoners, Then Blaming Kurdish Forces

Invading Turkish-backed forces are freeing Islamic State prisoners, according to Foreign Policy, also “executing Kurdish prisoners and killing unarmed civilians, videos show.”

On Monday a senior U.S. administration official told reporters that Turkey’s Syrian Islamist ground proxies are “going to unguarded prisons and releasing ISIS detainees – then blaming Syrian Democratic Forces.”

And following prior reports since the start of Turkey’s ‘Operation Peace Spring’ of mass ISIS prison breaks as Kurdish positions came under Turkish artillery fire, more former US captives are taking advantage of the chaos.

zana amedi@zana_medi

Ain Isa IDP camp, today. Dozens more people including ISIS families have fled after Asayish (internal security forces) lost control over the camp.

Embedded video

“The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Sunday that close to 800 members of a camp holding the families of ISIS fighters had escaped after Turkish shelling,” according to an NBC News report. ISIS jail breaks have been reported in places like Ain Issa and Qamlishi city, near the Turkish border, among others.

After President Trump last week said Erdogan assured him Turkey would be taking charge of ISIS prisoners amid its incursion into northeast Syria, the president has since issued a statement as part of newly announced sanctions on Ankara, saying “Turkey must ensure the safety of civilians, including relgious and ethnic minorities, and is now, or may in the future, responsible for the ongoing detention of ISIS terrorist in the region.”

On Monday morning Trump echoed the talking points of Turkish officials in a tweet, who have alleged the Kurds themselves are purposefully letting ISIS terrorists go free, speculating“Kurds may be releasing some to get us involved.” 

Trump has since implied that it’s now also Assad and Russia’s problem to clean up the ISIS threat and “protect the Kurds”:

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Some people want the United States to protect the 7,000 mile away Border of Syria, presided over by Bashar al-Assad, our enemy. At the same time, Syria and whoever they chose to help, wants naturally to protect the Kurds….

However, widespread reports suggest Turkey is actually freeing ISIS prisons, or at least ‘looking the other way’ as inmates make their escape. It should be noted that many of Turkey’s ground proxy forces are made up of ex-ISIS members now on Erdogan’s payroll.

And years after the United States actually supported the very same groups (of FSA and Syrian Islamist ‘rebel’ militants), the mainstream media is finally admitting the fact these Turkish-backed fighters are essentially ISIS who have conveniently changed stripes:

Meet the Press

@MeetThePress

WATCH: Turkey using militias to advance in Syria, including former Al Qaeda and ISIS members “close to U.S. forces” @RichardEngel: “The situation is not how it has been portrayed over the last several days as a conventional Turkish assault.”

Embedded video

But the long-term question remains, if thousands of ISIS prisoners escape during the current chaos of war in the northeast Syria, where will they show up next?

In total the SDF has been responsible for guarding over 10,000 ISIS prisoners in the region, not to mention the many more ISIS family members kept at places like al-Hol, with a population of 70,000.

 

Map via The Guardian

There’s concern they could be the next wave of terrorists to conduct attacks in Europe or even against American targets.

Ben Norton

@BenjaminNorton

Incredible: US officials are now admitting “rebels” from the “Free Syrian Army” that are embedded with the Turkish army are intentionally freeing ISIS prisoners, while massacring civilians

These are some of the “moderate rebels” the CIA armed and trainedhttps://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/14/turkish-backed-forces-freeing-islamic-state-prisoners-syria/ 

Turkish-Backed Forces Are Freeing Islamic State Prisoners

Ankara’s radical proxies are also apparently executing Kurdish prisoners and killing unarmed civilians, videos show.

foreignpolicy.com

Indeed years of media propaganda related to Syria and its ‘rebel’ forces is now unraveling fast

 

END

Lebanon

Lebanon pleads for international help as arsonists set fire to acres of trees.  It is to bad that they cannot call on Israeli’s who do have the knowledge to combat these fires.

(zerohedge)

Lebanon Pleads For International Help As “Worst Fires In Decades” Lurch Near Beirut

The government of Lebanon has issued an urgent cry for help from the international community as its emergency services have been caught unprepared while trying to battle over 100 fires which have spread throughout the Chouf region of Lebanon, south of Beirut, forcing mass evacuations of homes and at least one firefighter’s death.

“Fire engines were overwhelmed by the flames in the Mount Lebanon region early Tuesday,” The Washington Post reports. The report notes the fires have reached into three provinces of Syria as well helped in part due to a “heat wave hitting the region and strong winds helped intensify the fires in pine forests”.

 

Fires in the Chouf Mountains in central Lebanon this week. Image via Arab News.

Lebanon’s Minister of Environment, Fadi Jreissati, has blamed the still raging fires on arson and is calling for “severe punishments” if the perpetrators are apprehended.

Prime Minister Saad Hariri said he’s called on the international community for help, with Cyprus and Greece already reported to have sent aircraft to help extinguish the fires. Hariri also vowed those behind it would bay “pay a heavy price”.

 

Image via Arab News.

The Lebanese Army is said to be spearheading response efforts alongside over one hundred firefighters and additional volunteers to put the fires out, fueled by an especially dry season.

Many homes in the Chouf mountains of densely populated central Lebanon were gutted by the forest fires.

Hussain Chehimi@Hasoon_Ch

Pray For Debbeih ! Pray for 🇱🇧 🔥

Embedded video

Meanwhile controversy and finger-pointing has erupted over a slow government response, with former Minister Major General Ashraf Rifi tweeting, “Firefighting aircraft are without maintenance, while the extravagance of the public funds is not affected. We call for a state of emergency to control fires.”

Romy@romyjournalist

Lebanon is burning.Probably the biggest fire this country has seen.
Houses have been destroyed, acres of trees have been razed..
We dont have the necessary equipment/tools to fight the raging wildfires
We need international help
Share the message &

Embedded video

Many residents were suddenly awoken Tuesday morning to find fires fast approaching their homes from over the pine mountains.

“At the hands of Interior Minister Raya Al-Hassan and the state apparatus of civil defense, internal security forces, army and citizens were recruited to extinguish fires,” added Rifi, angry that proper emergency funds were not utilized.

Lebanon’s The Daily Star has described the emergency as “the worst fires in decades”.

END

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1008 DOWN .0018 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.32 DOWN 0.072 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2639   UP   0.0030  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3228 DOWN .0002 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 18 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1008 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 16.84 POINTS OR 0.56% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 17.92 POINTS OR 0.07%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,08%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 17.92 POINTS OR 0.07%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.84 POINTS OR 0.56%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 08% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 408.34  POINTS OR 1.87%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1494.00

silver:$17.62-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.69% !!! DOWN 4 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.17 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 98.51 UP 8 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.18% UP 1in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.18%  UP 2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.22%//UP 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.93 UP 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 71 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.42% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.35% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1041  DOWN     .0015 or 15 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.82 UP .425 OR YEN DOWN 43  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2727 UP .01187 POUND UP 119  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 22 basis points to 1.3203

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0818    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0856  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8870 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.18%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.74 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.22 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.27 DOWN 18  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 1.87  0.03%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 143.23 POINTS OR 1.15%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 58.97 POINTS 1.04%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 109.80 POINTS or 1.19%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 267.40 POINTS OR 1.20%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 53.47 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 59.3W8 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    64.26  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.03 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 3 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.42 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  52.87//

 

 

BRENT :  58.86

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.77..plus 4 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.24..plus 4 basis pts..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1037 ( UP 11   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.87 up .466 (DOWN 47 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 98.29 DOWN 16 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2778 UP 171  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8908

 

 

the Russian rouble 64.28   UP 0.05 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( U5 3 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3203 UP 23 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0818  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0827 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.42%

 

The Dow closed UP 237.64 POINTS OR 0.89%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 100.06 POINTS OR 1.24%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.48 CLOSED DOWN 1.09

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.00%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Soar, Shorts Squeezed; Bullion, Bitcoin, & Black Gold Bruised

The pointless search for catalysts or market-moving headlines hit a wall today for sure as US equities went panic-bid vertical at the US cash open on the basis of absolutely nothing.

But the machines went full Monty (Python) today…

Because the US cash equity market open is now ‘bullish’…

Chinese stocks were broadly lower overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks benefited from the US spike and positive Brexit headlines…

Source: Bloomberg

US equities manage to push back above the pre-trade-deal levels, but Small Caps were barely able to hold that gain…

 

S&P 500 algos was utterly bemused by the 3,000 level all day (S&P back above 3,000 for first time since Sept 24)

 

A juicy short-squeeze starting at the US cash open provided just the momentum ignition needed to cross that 3k level…

Source: Bloomberg

Bank stocks rallied for the 5th straight day…

Source: Bloomberg

And just look at Goldman’s big reversal…

Source: Bloomberg

And Semis surged to a new record high…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX was clubbed like a baby seal, back to a 13 handle – its quad witch lows…

 

Bonds are back from celebrating Columbus Day and were unceremoniously dumped from overnight highs in price (lows in yield)…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields pushed up to Friday’s highs, then fell modestly…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar was more volatile today but ended the day modestly lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable squeezed higher once again – to its highest since May 16th…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the biggest 4-day surge in sterling since Dec 2008 (and 2nd biggest since July 1989) – BUT note where today’s surge stalled – at the bottom of the initial plunge in cable after the Brexit vote…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were all lower on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were down across the board today…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was very volatile today (ahead of tonight’s API inventory data)… critically crude did not follow stocks…

Gold futures tagged $1500 for the second day in a row, then tumbled (for the 3rd day in a row)…

 

Finally, there’s a resurgent demand for Fed liquidity…

And soaring recession risk…

Source: Bloomberg

“probably nothing”

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading// THIS MORNING/USA

Dow, Nasdaq Erase Trade-Deal “Sell The News” Losses, Gold Slammed

It appears the machines know something the rest of the world doesn’t about how the non-deal announced on Friday, is a deal…

Nasdaq and Dow Industrials have ramped (the latter on various earnings pops), erasing the post-deal losses…

Is this really just because tariffs did not hit today?

Gold tagged $1500 for the second day in a row and dumped…

Let’s see what happens next.

end

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner is another extremely smart cookie.  He understands the TOMO/POMO situation fully and explains it to us in simple language.  This is a must read!!

(Wall Street Journal/Lee Adler)

Fed QE Not QE Starts at $80 Billion Monthly, Plus TOMO- The System Is Burning Down

Fed QE will start at $80 billion per month including $20 billion in rollovers of existing maturing holdings. It will add $60 billion per month in new T-Bill purchases at least into the second quarter off 2020.

The Fed made this shocking announcement today.

Fed QE to Total $80 Billion Per Month To Start

Emphasis added to highlight key points.

October 11, 2019

In light of recent and expected increases in the Federal Reserve’s non-reserve liabilities, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) directed the Desk, effective October 15, 2019, to purchase Treasury bills at least into the second quarter of next year to maintain over time ample reserve balances at or above the level that prevailed in early September 2019.  The Committee also directed the Desk to conduct term and overnight repurchase agreement operations (repos) at least through January of next year to ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample even during periods of sharp increases in non-reserve liabilities, and to mitigate the risk of money market pressures that could adversely affect policy implementation.

In accordance with this directive, the Desk plans to purchase Treasury bills at an initial pace of approximately $60 billion per month, starting with the period from mid-October to mid-November.  These reserve management purchases of Treasury bills will be in addition to the Desk’s ongoing purchases of Treasury securities related to the reinvestment of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities [Ed. Note: now at $20 billion per month]  Detailed information on the schedule for reserve management purchases of Treasury bills will be announced on or around the 9th business day of each month on the Treasury Securities Operational Details site.

Consistent with this directive, the Desk will roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities.  As Treasury bill holdings mature, the principal payments will be rolled into new Treasury bill securities.

In addition, at least through January of next year, the Desk will conduct overnight and term repo operations to ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample and to mitigate the risk of money market pressures.  Term repo operations will generally be conducted twice per week, initially in an offering amount of at least $35 billion per operation.  Overnight repo operations will be conducted daily, initially in an offering amount of at least $75 billion per operation.  Detailed information on the schedule of term and overnight repurchase agreement operations will be announced on or around the 9th business day of each month on the Repurchase Agreement Operational Details site.

The Desk will adjust the timing and amounts of reserve management Treasury bill purchases and repo operations as necessary to maintain an ample supply of reserve balances over time and based on money market conditions, consistent with the directive from the FOMC.

The System is Out of Cash – We Saw It Coming

The financial system has run out of cash. It cannot absorb the humongous pile of paper that the Federal government is issuing every month to fund the massive budget deficit. Without the Fed absorbing the bulk of  this paper, interest rates would be going through the roof.

We have known for many months that this was coming, as the banks funded virtually all of their Treasury purchases with repo borrowing since 2017. Treasury issuance soared as the budget deficit grew. Dealers and their parent and client banks bought more and more. Repo borrowing soared.

Fed QE rescued the banks

That reached a limit in mid-September. Banks and dealers could no longer borrow repo funds within the Fed’s Fed Funds target range. Private market repo rates soared, so the Fed had to take emergency measures.

New Fed QE Started with TOMO

The New Fed QE started with Temporary Open Market Operations (TOMO). Those operations initially consisted of overnight repos. These are direct loans to Primary Dealers. The Fed quickly made it clear that it would roll those over as long as necessary. It also added a series of 14 day term repos.

On September 30, the total outstanding reached a mind boggling $205 billion. That has dropped back to $164 billion today. That’s because the market is between the huge Treasury coupon settlements which take place around the end of the month, and then again around the 15th.

Fed QE starts with TOMO

They Said It Was a One-Off LOL

Fedheads, clueless economists, and the craven Wall Street media all made the idiotic excuse that the repo market problems were due to the “one-off” event of corporations needing to withdraw cash from the banks to pay their September 15 quarterly tax obligations at the same time as the Treasury was issuing a large amount of new paper.

How the hell can they have the gall to call it a one-off? IT HAPPENS EVERY QUARTER! The Treasury issued $43 billion in net new paper between September 10 and September 17. Compare that with the March quarterly corporate tax period (June doesn’t count because the debt ceiling restricted issuance). Net new issuance in the March tax week was $90 billion! Why didn’t that cause the repo market to seize up?

The Banking System Hit the Wall- New Fed QE to the Rescue

Because the repo market hadn’t hit the wall yet. Now it has.

That’s why the Fed had to intervene, and will need to continue to intervene and buy up most new issuance from now till Kingdom Come.

So get ready to see the Lord, folks. But none of us knows what he or she looks like. I suspect there will be plenty of fire and brimstone as we face a reckoning between Fed printing and a market that’s suddenly running away from holding bonds.

The Treasury will issue $69 billion in net new paper next week. With the new POMO operations only just beginning to help absorb that, watch for a massive surge in TOMO. That should recede as the new POMO operations get in full swing.

TOMO Too Little, Here Comes POMO

The Fed knew that it could not support the constant flow of new Treasury issuance by TOMO alone. So here comes the new Fed QE. First TOMO, now massive POMO – Permanent Open Market Operations. It’s QE, regardless of what they call it.

With TOMO repos, the Fed merely lends the money to the dealers to buy up the Treasury supply constantly hitting the market. With POMO, the Fed purchases Treasuries directly from Primary Dealers, cashing them out each week. The Dealers can then buy new Treasury issuance in the following weeks, as required.

This is exactly what the Fed did with old QE. However, DO NOT CALL THIS QE! Because… Well, just because Jerry, and his cadre of media talking heads, said so.

Where Have You Gone Alan Abelson?

I understand the Fedheads doing this. It’s propaganda for the masses. But from the fin-journo community, parroting this crap is inexcusable.

It’s just another sign that there are no journalists covering Wall Street. Guys who once did, like Pedro da Costa have been drummed out of the business. The Wall Street Journal and CNBC are wholly owned propaganda subsidiaries of the Street. Where have you gone Alan Abelson? Where’s John Crudele? Floyd Norris? Haven’t heard much from Gretchen Morgensen lately. Those who might stir the pot a little dare not. They know which side their bread is buttered on.

Regardless Of What They Call It, It Still Quacks Like A Duck

But here’s the point. Just because the reason for the QE is different, doesn’t mean that it’s not QE.

Whether the purpose is ostensibly “reserve management” as they say now, or to support economic growth, POMO is POMO. And this TOMO and POMO means massive expansion of the Fed balance sheet. And massive expansion of the Fed balance sheet is QE.

POMO purchases of Treasuries from dealers pump money directly into Primary Dealer accounts. To the extent that they do not need to buy Treasuries, they direct the excess cash to purchase other financial assets, usually stocks. That’s why Old QE was so bullish.

Here’s Why This Time is Different

But this time IS different. During Old QE, Federal debt issuance was falling. The downtrend began in 2010 and continued until 2016. The system was awash in cash.

Under New QE, Federal debt issuance is high and rising. There’s no end to that in sight. Under old QE, declining issuance was working in the Fed’s favor. And the market was enamored of bonds. With investors and foreign central banks buying Treasuries heavily, the dealers did not need to be as active in buying and accumulating Treasuries. So they bought stocks.

None of that is the case today. Now the Fed is fighting against increasing issuance and a banking system that has run out of cash. Dealers are stuffed to the gills with massive Treasury positions. They’re choking on the stuff.

Watch the Treasury Yields for A Crash Signal

Just look at soaring Treasury yields over the past few days. The Street is trying to divert your attention to the fact that the monthly 30 year bond offering was at a record low. Meanwhile, the 30 year bond yield has risen from 2.01 to 2.21 over the past 5 days. But nobody is talking about that. The 10 year yield has run up from 1.50 to 1.75. The 10 year note issue auctioned this week is already 13 bp under water. Dealers who bought that issue are choking on it. The 30s are also slightly under water. Nobody’s talking about that.

Dealers, banks, and huge leveraged hedged funds are financing their purchases entirely with overnight repo.  So they have a problem! They must put up collateral every night. The collateral will soon not cover the loan, if it doesn’t already. Collateral (margin) calls will only bring forth more selling. That is how crashes start.

If this spike in bond yields and plunge in prices isn’t stopped in its tracks right here, the financial markets will be in a world of hurt as soon as next week. With dealer and bank Treasury holdings leveraged to the hilt, they cannot afford prices to fall at all. That’s what caused the money market to seize up in the first place. And it’s on the verge of happening again, even with the Fed pumping all this cash into the system.

It All Points to One Thing- The House Is on Fire

The Fed has pulled out all the stops. It already pumped $205 billion in TOMO into the system in a couple of weeks. Now it will add another $60 billion per month in POMO to the $20 billion in POMO it is already doing. And they promise that this will go on for months. This level of pumping is a sign that the House — Wall Street — is on fire.

And it will get worse if the economy weakens. Time will tell on that score.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s contraspeak propaganda notwithstanding, this is QE. We just don’t know if it will work this time. I have my doubts.

END

This is in line with the above Lee Adler paper

(zerohedge)

Not Transitory – Fed Liquidity Handout Surges To Near $90 Billion

So much for the ‘transitory’ liquidity shortage arguments put forth by commission-takers and asset-gatherers, The NYFed accepted $87.7 billion (in o/n and term) repo today – the highest level yet.

The Fed accepted $20.1 billion in 14-day term repo…

And $67.7 billion in overnight repo…

The biggest overnight repo (liquidity bailout) since September.

Having stabilized in the $30-40 billion range, liquidity needs have surged once again as it seems the big banks just cannot wait for The Fed’s NotQE in November.

end

Last week I was in California exactly where P G and E used rolling blackouts.  It causes massive chaos everywhere and billions in lost revenue

(zerohedge)

“This Did Not Go Well” – PG&E’s Rolling Blackout Sparked Chaos In Bay Area

Pacific Gas and Electric’s (PG&E) historic blackout plunging hundreds of thousands of customers into darkness last week was a massive communication breakdown that sparked criticism over the two-day blackout that was designed to avoid wildfires, reported The New York Times.

PG&E officials said over the weekend that most of the power had been restored to everyone except for 2,500 customers across several Bay Area counties and promised to fix communication channels with customers.

“We’ll get better in the next month and better in the next year,” PG&E CEO Bill Johnson said Saturday.

“Communication to customers, coordination with state agencies, website availability, call center staff, that’s where you will see short-term improvements.”

Last Wednesday, PG&E triggered rolling blackouts for nearly 735,000 homes and or businesses in the San Francisco Bay Area amid the threat of strong winds and dry conditions that would’ve damaged transmission wires and sparked dangerous wildfires, similar to what was seen last year. Most of the residents were restored by Friday afternoon, but 99.5% of its customers saw full power by Saturday.

The shutdown caused widespread confusion about the planned power outage, and according to some experts, billions of dollars in economic losses were sustained by local businesses during the two-day blackout.

PG&E’s website and communication network that relayed essential data about the blackouts crashed, leaving many without details about what was happening.

“There were definitely missteps,” said Elizaveta Malashenko, a spokesperson for the state Public Utilities Commission who was in the PG&E control center. “It’s pretty much safe in saying, this did not go well.”

PG&E’s approach to shutdown various grids during a powerful windstorm that hit the Bay Area was never tried before, nor such failure in attempting to manage a controlled blackout and effectively communicate what was happening customers.

“Today marks an unprecedented turn in the history of electricity in California,” State Senator Jerry Hill, chairman of the Subcommittee on Energy, Utilities and Communications, said in a letter on Wednesday to the utilities commission. “This situation is not acceptable nor sustainable.”

Bloomberg TicToc

@tictoc

California Governor @GavinNewsom says PG&E’s planned blackout is “a story of greed and mismanagement” and not about climate change

Embedded video

Johnson said crews inspected 25,000 miles of line across the state after the windstorm passed. PG&E confirmed that at least 50 poles and power lines were damaged during the storm, which could have triggered wildfires considering the dry conditions.

“Had that line not be de-energized,” he said, it could have led to a “catastrophic outcome.”

Bay Area customers are furious with PG&E for its rolling blackout that plunged hundreds of thousands into darkness, along with crashed communication networks that left many ill-informed.

WSJ Photos

@WSJphotos

“I’m embarrassed to be a Californian”:  PG&E’s mass blackout has some wondering if they should leave https://on.wsj.com/2OMgPj9

View image on Twitter

And judging by PG&E’s latest defensive tactic to thwart wildfires during windstorms, it appears Bay Area customers could expect more rolling blackouts in the future. Maybe next time, PG&E can communicate more effectively before the next outage. Nevertheless, Bay Area residents should seriously consider diesel generators.

END

The world’s largest landowner tried for an IPO and failed.  They are now looking for a bailout and this is going to play havoc on the entire world’s financial scene.  These guys are in NY city, London England, Toronto and just about every major city,

(zerohedge)

WeWork Bonds Crash To Record Low, JPMorgan Financial Lifeline Preferred

Early investors and investment banks behind WeWork are panicking as the company runs out of cash next month. The struggling start-up is considering two massive bailouts, one either from JPMorgan Chase & Co. or another from SoftBank Group Corp., according to Bloomberg sources.

The office-sharing start-up had its IPO request rejected last month when questions started to swirl about its non-existent profitability plan.

As macroeconomic headwinds continue to mount, Wall Street has recently readjusted valuations of unicorns and focused on profitable companies, due to the threat of a recession in 2020 and beyond.

As we noted last month, WeWork lost $690 million in the first six months of the year and is expected to generate a loss from operations approaching $3 billion as it burns through tens of millions in cash daily. The company could run out of money in the coming months if it fails to receive a capital injection.

Here are the financial lifelines being thrown out to WeWork at the moment: 

  1. A debt and equity blend infusion via SoftBank, WeWork’s top shareholder. If WeWork goes ahead with this deal, SoftBank/Vision Fund would be in full control of the office-sharing start-up.
  2.  JPMorgan Chase & Co. is offering a $5 billion financing package, rather than a controlling stake, at least $2 billion of unsecured notes will be yielding 15% coupon.

Sources told Bloomberg, WeWork is seriously considering JPMorgan’s financing rather than SoftBank’s deal, which would avoid diluting top private shareholders. Option two is costly, but if there’s a turnaround in the company, it could be rewarding for shareholders and JPM.

WeWork’s valuation collapsed this year from $47 billion in January to $10 to $12 billion in October, forcing co-founder Adam Neumann to step down as CEO.

“There may be little appetite for a cash-burning business-facing other headwinds, even with a bond yield over 10%,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Arnold Kakuda wrote in a note last week.

Fitch Ratings downgraded WeWork’s credit rating earlier this month by two notches to “CCC+,” shifting WeWork’s debt deeper into junk territory.

“In the absence of an IPO and associated senior secured debt raise, WeWork does not have sufficient funding to meet its growth plan,” Fitch wrote in a note.

Since the IPO was pulled and valuations collapsed, WeWork’s WE 7.875 01-MAY-2025 junk bond was last trading at about 90.5 cents on the dollar according to Tradeweb data, a hefty discount to face value, which indicates doubts the company can repay its debts.

If WeWork takes JPM’s financing deal, it could give the company some time to reorganize and develop a plan towards profitability, but that comes at a time when macroeconomic headwinds are becoming more severe.

Bloomberg notes that at least 60 financing sources have signed non-disclosure agreements with WeWork. The start-up could make the final decision on a deal to save itself from bankruptcy in the next several weeks.

However, the market is extremely disappointed. After an exuberant pump yesterday – hope is never a strategy – WeWork bond prices are plunging to record lows today (yield above 13%) after the new debt packages become clearer…

Source: Bloomberg

END

The delays in harvesting the corn crops is going to have a devastating effect on income for our midwest farmers as a historic blizzard will cripple them.

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

Historic Midwest Blizzard Has Farmers Seeing “Massive Crop Losses…As Devastating As We’ve Ever Seen”

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

An unprecedented October blizzard that hit just before harvest time has absolutely devastated farms all across the U.S. heartland. 

As you will see below, one state lawmaker in North Dakota is saying that the crop losses will be “as devastating as we’ve ever seen”.  This is the exact scenario that I have been warning about for months, and now it has materialized.  Due to endless rain and horrific flooding early in the year, many farmers in the middle of the country faced very serious delays in getting their crops planted.  So we really needed good weather at the end of the season so that the crops could mature and be harvested in time, and that did not happen.  Instead, the historic blizzard that we just witnessed dumped up to 2 feet of snow from Colorado to Minnesota.  In fact, one city in North Dakota actually got 30 inches of snow In the end, this is going to go down as one of the worst crop disasters that the Midwest has ever seen, and ultimately this crisis is going to affect all of us.

According to the USDA, only 15 percent of all U.S. corn and only 14 percent of all U.S. soybeans had been harvested as of October 6th

Only 58% of U.S. corn was mature as of Oct. 6 and just 15% was harvested, according to the latest data from U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). North Dakota’s crop was furthest behind, with just 22% of corn mature and none harvested as of Sunday, while South Dakota’s corn was 36% mature with 2% harvested.

U.S. soybeans were only 14% harvested as of Sunday, 20 percentage points behind the average pace, USDA data showed. North Dakota and Minnesota beans were just 8% gathered while Iowa’s and South Dakota’s crop was only 5% harvested.

So that means that the vast majority of our corn and the vast majority of our soybeans were exposed to this giant storm, and the losses are going to be off the charts.

I want you to consider the next quote very carefully.  According to North Dakota state lawmaker Jon Nelson, we should expect “massive crop losses – as devastating as we’ve ever seen”

The early season snowstorm showed no mercy to some farmers and ranchers, especially in North Dakota.

“I’m expecting massive crop losses – as devastating as we’ve ever seen,” said Jon Nelson, a state lawmaker who farms several hundred acres near Rugby in north-central North Dakota.

Unharvested wheat in the region probably will be a total loss, he told the Associated Press.

Please let that last sentence sink in.

Yes, “a total loss” really does mean “a total loss”.

Millions upon millions of acres of wheat and soybeans that were about to be harvested are now completely gone.

In some parts of the state, the snow drifts are “as high as 5 feet”, and this is going to leave many farmers “without a crop to sell”

Snowdrifts in the Jamestown area rose as high as 5 feet, said Ryan Wanzek, who farms land south and west of the city. In his fields, corn and soybean crops sit unharvested after near-historic rainfall late this summer.

It’s a situation farmers across the state are facing, and without a crop to sell, Wanzek is worried many of them will run into cash flow problems.

If all this sounds “bad” to you, then you should go back and read the first part of this article again.

This isn’t just bad.  We are talking about complete and utter devastation that will have ripple effects for years to come.

Of course corn and soybeans are not the only crops that have been affected.  According to one expert, things are looking “pretty bleak” for the region’s potatoes as well…

With more than half of North Dakota’s potatoes still in the field, the outlook for harvesting a good quality crop after the latest round of rain and snowfall is poor.

“It’s pretty bleak,” said Ted Kreis, Northern Potato Growers Association marketing and communications director. As of Sunday, Oct. 6, 45 percent of North Dakota’s potato crop had been harvested, National Agricultural Statistics Service-North Dakota said. Last year, 73 percent of the state’s potato fields had been harvested by that day, the statistics service said. On average, 69 percent of the North Dakota crop is harvested as of Oct. 6.

In case you are wondering, yes, this is going to affect you very much.

Just think about what you eat on a daily basis.  How many of those items contain corn, soy or potatoes?

If you are anything like most Americans, at least one of those ingredients can be found in most of the packaged foods that you consume.

Needless to say, food prices are going to go up.  If you are wealthy and you don’t need to worry about food prices, then good for you.

But if you are like most of the country and your finances are already tight, this is going to hurt.

I very much encourage you to stock up and get prepared, because we are facing a major shift.

This was already going to be one of the worst years ever for Midwest farmers, and now this storm has put an exclamation mark on an absolutely horrific growing season.

Nobody is sure exactly what is coming next, but since we all have to eat, the truth is that every man, woman and child in America should be deeply concerned about what just happened.

END

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Bill Barr, and company as well as Inspector General Horowitz better release their stuff before Schiff makes a mockery out of the system. Schiff claims that the public has no right to observe the impeachment inquiry. Matt Gaetz kicked out of the secretive hearings

(zerohedge)

Schiff: Public Has No Right To Observe Impeachment Inquiry…Then Kicks GOP Lawmaker Out 

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA) says that the public shouldn’t be allowed to observe hearings in the ongoing impeachment inquiry, as doing so may allow Republicans to then “fabricate testimony” (and totally not because their case is falling apart).

On Sunday, Schiff told host Margaret Brennan that the ongoing impeachment inquiry is “analogous to a grand jury proceeding,” which is “done out of the public view initially.”

Byron York

@ByronYork

Rep Schiff says impeachment hearings must be secret because they’re like grand jury; can’t let Trump side coordinate stories. Question: Will Schiff pledge to release all transcripts before public hearings and reasonable period of time before House votes on impeachment articles?

View image on Twitter

 

Based on a politically biased CIA officer’s second-hand complaint over a phone call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky in which Trump asked for an investigation of former VP Joe Biden, House Democrats have forged ahead with their impeachment inquiry despite several damaging revelations to their narrative; namely that the whistleblower worked with former Biden and two Schiff staffers.

More importantly, a transcript of the call in question reveals no such pressure or quid pro quo by Trump.

Meanwhile, Schiff booted GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz out of Monday morning testimony with former White House Russia adviser Fiona Hill, who resigned shortly before President Trump’s call with Zelensky.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), assuming he was allowed to sit in on the testimony because he’s a member of the  House Judiciary Committee, found that he was mistaken.

Gaetz told the press that House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff had asked him to leave because only the Intelligence, Oversight and Reform, and Foreign Affairs committees, who are leading the impeachment inquiry, had the right to be there. –Town Hall

Rep. Jim Jordan

@Jim_Jordan

.@RepAdamSchiff is conducting his secretive impeachment proceedings in the basement of the Capitol, and now he’s kicked @mattgaetz out of today’s deposition.

This testimony should be available to every member of Congress and every single American. What is Schiff hiding?

Interesting, Schiff went from calling for Trump to release a transcript of the Zelensky call and the whistleblower complaint – which Trump did, to wanting everything done through non-public, ‘secretive’ proceedings.

end

Hunter Biden admits that he would not have had that Ukrainian board seat if it was not for his father

(zerohedge)

Hunter Biden Admits He Would ‘Probably Not’ Have Gotten Ukrainian Board Seat Without VP Father Joe

Hunter Biden has finally emerged from ‘hiding’ just four days after President Trump’s campaign had “Where’s Hunter” t-shirts.

In an interview with ABC News, the son of 2020 Democratic presidential candidate and former VP Joe Biden denied any wrongdoing in Ukraine and China, though he acknowledged that he exercised poor judgement in maintaining those associations.

“In retrospect, look, I think that it was poor judgment on my part,” said Hunter, adding “Is that I think that it was poor judgment because I don’t believe now when I look back on it — I know that there was — did nothing wrong at all. However, was it poor judgment to be in the middle of something that is a swamp in—in—in many ways? Yeah.

“So I take full responsibility for that,” Biden then said. “Did I do anything improper? No, not in any way. Not in any way whatsoever. Did I make a mistake based upon some ethical lapse? Absolutely not.”

When pressed over his qualificiations to sit on various boards, Hunter admitted he would “probably not” have gotten them if he weren’t Joe Biden’s son, though he insisted that there was no impropriety.

Watch:

END

“Joe Biden Has A Problem” CNN Senior Justice Correspondent Tells Undercover Veritas Operative

Project Veritas has released their part two of their most recent undercover CNN exposé, revealing more political bias within the network. The footage was obtained by Insider Cary Poarch, who “came to CNN a registered Democrat” and “campaigned and voted for Bernie” in the 2016 primaries, says he wants the network to “get back to the facts and get back to reporting news.”

In one segment, CNN Senior Justice Correspondent Evan Perez says that former VP Joe Biden has a problem. 

Now I’ll tell you this. Joe Biden has a problem. Because his son was trading in his name. It looks bad. It smells bad. It’s not illegal. Nothing is illegal about it… How do you go and say that Donald Trump is the person?  Get him out of here, and convict him, when your son is doing the same shit.”

James O’Keefe@JamesOKeefeIII

BREAKING: @CNN Senior Justice Correspondent @evanperez says ‘@JoeBiden has a problem because of his son’s() foreign business dealings; “IT LOOKS BAD. IT SMELLS BAD.”

Embedded video

And it’s not just corruption allegations – even CNN’s own employees think Biden is boring.

James O’Keefe@JamesOKeefeIII

“…Why don’t we show a @JoeBiden rally or @ewarren rally in full though?” – @CNN Media Coordinator Christian Sierra

“PEOPLE WOULD CHANGE THE CHANNEL!” – @CNN Media Coordinator Nick Neville

“It’s SNOOZEVILLE” – Christian Sierra

Embedded video

More highlights via Project Veritas, and full “part 2” video below.

  • CNN President Jeff Zucker Pushes Kamala Harris’ Demand to Take Down Trump’s Twitter Account; “I Think it’s a Good Segment…Not Going to Happen, But it’s a Good Talking – it’s a Good Segment.”
  • Zucker on Harris: “She is Also Retooling Her Struggling Campaign.”
  • CNN Media Coordinator Christian Sierra Says Network is Less Fair to Andrew Yang and Amy Klobuchar, “They’re Pro-Top Contenders.”
  • Sierra: “I Think They Like Warren a Lot” “…They Don’t Like Tulsi Gabbard”
  • CNN Media Coordinator Nick Neville Says “People Would Change the Channel” if Network Broadcasted a Biden Rally.
  • CNN VP and Political Director David Chalian Believes That Andrew Yang Will Not Become the Democratic Nominee for President.
  • CNN Insider Cary Poarch: “I Actually Came to CNN a Registered Democrat. I Campaigned and Voted for Bernie in the Primaries of the 16’ election;” “…All That I Thought I Knew and Hoped to be at CNN Was False.”
  • Poarch: “It’s an Unwritten Rule That if You Are Center, Center Right, or Heaven Forbid, Full Right Republican Trump Supporter, Then You Are Not Welcome at CNN.”
  • Insider Cary Poarch Wants ‘Free and Fair Election’ and Not ‘Some Ideology Shoved Down My Throat;’ Wants CNN to ‘Get Back to the Facts and Get Back to Reporting the News.’
end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

5:19 ET: China Wants More Talks before Signing Trade Deal with Trump

China also wants Trump to scrap a planned tariff hike in December in addition to the hike scheduled for this week, something the administration hasn’t yet endorsed…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-14/china-wants-more-talks-before-signing-trump-s-phase-one-deal

On Sunday, Maria Bartiromo reiterated that her sources told her Horowitz’s report would be released on Friday.  We noted last week that a good source told us the IG’s report would be delayed a few weeks at Durham’s request.  Last night @MariaBartiromo: UPDATE: IG report NOT out this Friday 10/18.  Classifications being made.  Likely end of month. 

Our source told us last night that Durham is removing info that could compromise his criminal cases.

Veritas Strikes Again: Exposes CNN’s ‘Anti-Trump Crusade’, Zucker’s ‘Personal Vendetta’ Against Trump – In 2017, a producer was caught on tape admitting that the Trump-Russia story was nothing more than a ratings grab by Jeff Zucker, and the narrative is “mostly bull$#it.”… During the same series of releases, CNN host Van Jones called the Russia story a “big nothing burger.”…

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/okeefe-strikes-again

@RealSaavedra: New leaked video from inside CNN: President Jeff Zucker tells employees to push “impeachment” and that all of CNN’s stories should be about “moves towards impeachment

One of CNN’s employees says Zucker has a “personal vendetta against Trump”

@JamesOKeefeIII: “I’m just surprised @CNN hasn’t been able to take down @realDonaldTrump yet” – … “I mean, I feel like they’re trying…” – @CNN Media Coordinator Nick Neville

    “There’s nothing we can do if Zucker wants impeachment every single day to be the top storyHe wants impeachment…Above all else!” – @CNN Media Coordinator Christian Sierra

    “Our Democratic interviews are like softballs compared to the Republicans” – @CNN  Media Coordinator Christian Sierra

Inside the media’s relentless crusade to destroy President Trump by Kimberley Strassel [of WSJ]

This media war is extraordinary, overt and increasingly damaging to the country…The election of Donald Trump has led to the greatest disintegration of press standards in modern history…

     What has defined the media breakdown that started in 2016 was the press’ abandonment of standards in aid of peddling a narrative — rather than reality. This abandonment has had terrible consequences for the industry and for the country. A Monmouth University poll in early 2018 found that a whopping 77 percent of Americans believe traditional TV and newspaper outlets report “fake news.”…

    For those worried about our increasingly polarized society, the media is feeding that divide.

https://nypost.com/2019/10/13/inside-the-medias-relentless-crusade-to-destroy-president-trump/

Judicial Watch’s @TomFitton: @JudicialWatch investigates allegations U.S. Embassy in Ukraine, at direction of Obama holdover Amb. Yovanovitch, monitored, contrary to law, social and other media statements on “Biden” and “Soros,” among other termsby @RealDonaldTrump family/allies.

    The latest list of those allegedly targeted for illegal monitoring by ousted Obama holdover Amb to Ukraine [and recent Schiff witness]: @JackPosobiec@DonaldJTrumpJr@IngrahamAngle@seanhannity@McFaul@dbongino@RealSaavedra@RudyGiuliani@SebGorka@jsolomonReports, @LouDobbs, @PamelaGeller, @SaraCarterDC

@BreitbartNews:  “Let them have their borders,” Trump said, referring to Turkey, “But I don’t think that our soldiers should be there for the next 50 years guarding a border between Turkey and Syria when we can’t guard our own borders at home.”

@realDonaldTrump: Some people want the United States to protect the 7,000 mile away Border of Syria, presided over by Bashar al-Assad, our enemy… Syria and whoever they chose to help, wants naturally to protect the Kurds.  I would much rather focus on our Southern Border which abuts and is part of the United States of America. And by the way, numbers are way down and the WALL is being built!

@AnnCoulter: Reminder for Americans listening to the hysteria about our beloved allies, the Kurds, on the Sunday political shows: ISIS poses zero danger to you.  Immigrants have killed at least 80,000 Americans since 2001.

@realDonaldTrump: Europe had a chance to get their ISIS prisoners, but didn’t want the cost. “Let the USA pay,” they said.  Kurds may be releasing some to get us involved. Easily recaptured by Turkey or European Nations… but they should move quickly. Big sanctions on Turkey coming! Do people really think we should go to war with NATO Member Turkey? Never ending wars will end!

After Obama and Hillary tried to overthrow Syrian despot Assad by covertly running weapons through Benghazi (2011 – 2012) to anti-Assad groups, Putin vowed that Russia would do what’s necessary to keep Assad in power.  Obama backed away from direct action; but he and his cohorts did engineer the removal of the Russia-friendly President of Ukraine.  Putin then invaded Eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea (Feb 2014).  These events are the basis and cause of much of the political turmoil that has occurred in the US – the quest to remove Trump to prevent exposure of past wrongdoing – over the past three years.

A major benefit of the removal of US troops from Syria: Turkey is now aligned against Syria and Russia.

@realDonaldTrump: Adam Schiff now doesn’t seem to want the Whistleblower to testify. NO! Must testify to explain why he got my Ukraine conversation sooo wrong, not even close. Did Schiff tell him to do that? We must determine the Whistleblower’s identity to determine WHY this was done to the USA.  Democrat’s game was foiled when we caught Schiff fraudulently making up my Ukraine conversation, when I released the exact conversation Transcript, and when Ukrainian President and the Foreign Minister said there was NO PRESSURE, very normal talk! A total Impeachment Scam!

Ex-Rolling Stones reporter Matt Taibbi: We’re in a permanent coup

     On Thursday, news broke that two businessmen said to have “peddled supposedly explosive information about corruption involving Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden” were arrested at Dulles airport on “campaign finance violations.”

    Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman will be asked to give depositions to impeachment investigators. They’re reportedly going to refuse. Their lawyer John Dowd also says they will “refuse to appear before House Committees investigating President Donald Trump.” Fruman and Parnas meanwhile claim they had real derogatory information about Biden and other politicians, but “the U.S. government had shown little interest in receiving it through official channels.”…

    This latest incident, set against the impeachment mania and the reportedly “expanding” Russiagate investigation of U.S. Attorney John Durham, accelerates our timeline to chaos. We are speeding toward a situation when someone in one of these camps refuses to obey a major decree, arrest order, or court decision, at which point Americans will get to experience the joys of their political futures being decided by phone calls to generals and police chiefs

    My discomfort in the last few years, first with Russiagate and now with Ukrainegate and impeachment, stems from the belief that the people pushing hardest for Trump’s early removal are more dangerous than Trump… Many Americans don’t see this because they’re not used to waking up in a country where you’re not sure who the president will be by nightfall. They don’t understand that this predicament is worse than having a bad president. 

     The Trump presidency is the first to reveal a full-blown schism between the intelligence community and the White House… The agencies’ new trick is inserting themselves into domestic politics using leaks and media pressure… The real problem would be the precedent of a de facto intelligence community veto over elections, using the lunatic spookworld brand of politics that has dominated the last three years of anti-Trump agitation.

    CIA/FBI-backed impeachment could also be a self-fulfilling prophecy. If Donald Trump thinks he’s going to be jailed upon leaving office, he’ll sooner or later figure out that his only real move is to start acting like the “dictator” MSNBC and CNN keep insisting he is. Why give up the White House and wait to be arrested, when he still has theoretical authority to send Special Forces troops rappelling through the windows of every last Russiagate/Ukrainegate leaker? That would be the endgame in a third world country, and it’s where we’re headed, unless someone calls off this craziness. Welcome to the Permanent Power Struggle.   https://taibbi.substack.com/p/were-in-a-permanent-coup

Democracy Dies in Darkness: Adam Schiff Just Banned a GOP Lawmaker from Attending Key Ukrainegate Deposition

    Several officials told The Federalist that they believe Fiona Hill, who was subpoenaed last week to share her knowledge of allegations of wrongdoing against Trump regarding a phone conversation he had with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on July 25, is one of the unnamed sources for the anti-Trump whistleblower whose August 12 complaint fanned congressional impeachment fires…

https://thefederalist.com/2019/10/14/democracy-dies-in-darkness-adam-schiff-just-banned-a-gop-lawmaker-from-attending-key-ukrainegate-deposition/

Democratic Rep. Van Drew opposes impeachment. He’ll tell you he’s on the ‘right side of history.’

Trump carried New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

   “Where are we going to be when it’s all done?” “Further divided, more hateful, more distrustful, with the same president and the same presidential candidate. What have we accomplished?”…

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/democratic-rep-van-drew-opposes-impeachment-he-ll-tell-you-n1065301

Bernie Sanders slams Elizabeth Warren as ‘capitalist’ [Progressives’ new pejorative]

“There are differences between Elizabeth and myself,” Sanders said during an interview Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.” “Elizabeth I think, as you know, has said that she is a capitalist through her bones. I’m not.”…  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dividing-lines-bernie-sanders-slams-elizabeth-warren-as-capitalist

Joe Biden has removed a safety net for himself as well as Teams Obama and Hillary.

Biden says he wouldn’t pardon Trump if elected president

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/465663-biden-says-he-wouldnt-pardon-trump-if-elected-president

 

Mike Bloomberg keeps talking to allies about running for president as Joe Biden struggles against Elizabeth Warren – “Bloomberg is in if Biden is out,” says one source…

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/14/bloomberg-signals-he-would-run-for-president-if-biden-struggles-against-warren.html

Well that is all for today

I will see you Wednesday night.

 

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