OCT 16/GOLD UP $10.25 TO $1490//SILVER UP 4 CENTS TO $17.42//A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP AT THE GOLD COMEX OF APPROX 1 TONNE AS BANKERS SEARCH OUT BADLY NEEDED GOLD//QE4 BEGINS IN EARNEST AT THE FED AS DEMAND FOR DOLLARS WAS 400% OVERSUBSCRIBED//COLLATERAL RATE RISES TO 2.27% PUTTING THE DEALERS UNDERWATER WITH THE LATEST BILL PURCHASES//EXPECT MASSIVE HONG KONG PROTESTS THIS WEEKEND//TURKISH STATE OWNED HALKBANK CHARGED WITH VIOLATING SANCTIONS AND THIS COULD BE TROUBLE FOR THE LIRA//

GOLD:$1490.50 UP $10.25(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.42 UP 4 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1490.0

 

silver:  $17.41

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING  4/4

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,477.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/15/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 10/17/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 C JP MORGAN 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 4
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 4 4
MONTH TO DATE: 10,794

___________________________________________________________________________________

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT: 4 NOTICE(S) FOR 400 OZ (0.0124 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  10,794 NOTICES FOR 1,079,400 OZ  (33.573 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR 0CT

 

 

19 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 85,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1012 for 5,060,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

 

 

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 8003 DOWN 150 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7958 DOWN 200 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE  SIZED 1244 CONTRACTS FROM 209,672 UP TO 210,916 DESPITE THE 30 CENT DROP IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR SEPT 0,; DEC  1252 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1252 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1252 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1252 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 6.26 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 30 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

6.41     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

YESTERDAY, ANOTHER MAJOR ATTEMPT BY THE BANKERS TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL AT THE SILVER COMEX AS ANOTHER RAID WAS INITIATED.  OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR//BANKERS AGAIN USED HUGE COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN THEIR SUCCESSFUL ENDEAVOUR TO WHACK SILVER’S PRICE (30 CENTS LOWER). HOWEVER OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED 2588 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF OCT:

13,113 CONTRACTS (FOR 12 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 13,113 CONTRACTS) OR 65.57 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1092 CONTRACTS OR 5.46 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  65.57 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 9.36% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1705.3   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1244, DESPITE THE 30 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1252 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED: 2495 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1252 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1244  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 30 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.38 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.055 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 150% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 19 NOTICE(S) FOR 95,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 6.41 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 1307 CONTRACTS, TO 607,387 DESPITE THE  $13.25 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// /

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 9461 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  9461 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 607,387,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,768 CONTRACTS: 1307 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 9461 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 10,768 CONTRACTS OR 1,076,800 OZ OR 33.49 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF $13.25 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE SURPRISINGLY  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 33.49  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE . THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS BOTH EXCHANGES ROSE IN TOTAL OI TO THE TUNE OF 10,768 CONTRACTS.. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT : 79,011 CONTRACTS OR 7,801,100 oz OR 242.64 TONNES (12 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 6584 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 242,64 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 242.64/3550 x 100% TONNES =6.83% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4,909.67  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    509.57  TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 1307 DESPITE THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($13.25)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 9461 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 9461 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 10,768 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

9461 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 1307 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 33.49 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $13.25 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  4 notice(s) filed upon for 400 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $10.25 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES

AND THIS WAS USED IN THE RAID YESTERDAY//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.66  TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1244 CONTRACTS from 209,672 UP TO 210,916 AND CLOSER TO A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR OCT. 0; FOR DEC  1252  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1252 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1244  CONTRACTS TO THE 1252 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 2495 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 12.48 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 6.41 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 30 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1252 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.53 POINTS OR 0.41%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 160.35 POINTS OR 0.61%   /The Nikkei closed UP 265.71 POINTS OR 1.20%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.18%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0989 /Oil UP TO 53.06 dollars per barrel for WTI and 58.88 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0989 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1046 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)China/USA

China threatens with retaliation over the USA House bill on Hong Kong

(zerohedge)

ii)China

China has been fudging their books from day one as they try and hide dollars leaving the country. We now have a way of determining what is escaping. Dollars leaving the country is deadly to the China
A must read…
(zerohedge)

iii)Generally Golden week is a terrific time for the Chinese to buy homes. This year it plummeted by 86% in Shanghai. Expect a property bloodbath shortly.

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

iv)Trouble ahead as protest organizer Jimmy Sham was attacked. lam rules out concessions so expect massive protests this weekend

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)TURKEY/USA

Halkbank, owned by the Turkish Government has now been charged for participating in helping Iran avoid sanctions leveled against them.

This is going to hurt the country.

(zerohedge)

ii)TURKEY/USA

USA jets approach Turkish jets in a show of force.  Turkey retreats
(zerohedge)

iii)Erdogan is one strange dude! He will only talk to Trump

(zerohedge)

iv)TURKEY/TRUMP

Trump threatens Erdogan that he will destroy Turkey’s economy if he engages with the Kurds. He wants peace and the Kurdish commander also wants peace
(zerohedge)

v)DC pundits are in meltdown over Trump’s escape from Syria leaving the Kurds to defend for themselves. Trump is correct when he states that Russia and Syria hate ISIS more than the US..they both will take care of these radicals. The Kurds joined forces with sovereign Syria to fend against Turkey.

(zerohedge)

 

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Do not worry about Putin. He couldn’t care less about holding USA dollars as he accumulates gold

(Bloomberg/GATA)

ii)Art Cashin is correct  The Fed is doing QE again but only bigger.

(zerohedge)

iii. Why you must own gold

(simon Black)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

a   1.)This is something that Lee Adler predicted: we have just run out of cash, period….

Today the repo markets have locked up again as the Fed TOMO/ operation was oversubscribed.  But worse, we witnessed the collateral rate rise to 2.27%.  Folks, we are in crisis as cash is scarce due to the voracious appetite of the US government with their monstrous budgetary deficit of 1 trillion dollars

(zerohedge)

a) ii  QE4 officially begins with a huge 4 x oversubscribed POMO..WE HAVE A MASSIVE LIQUIDITY PROBLEM AS HUGE AMTS OF CASH DEMANDED

(zerohedge)

b)Perhaps, this is one of the more important data releases:  retail sales as this is 70% of USA GDP. It unexpectedly tumbled in September

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Trump warns that the markets will crash if a Democrat |clown” becomes President.  He sounds like me.  Actually the markets will crash whether we Trump or a Democrat at the helm

(zerohedge

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Pelosi punts on official impeachment as she does not have the votes.  This is nothing but a show for the upcoming election

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 1307 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 607,387 DESPITE THE LOSS OF $13.25 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 9461 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR OCT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 9461   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  9461 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 10,768 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 9461 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 1307 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE AS IT FELL BY $13.25. HOWEVER, JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY UNSUSPECTING LONGS. THE RAID YESTERDAY MORNING  WAS ANOTHER ATTEMPT TO FORCE LONGS TO LEAVE THE GOLD ARENA

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  10,768 CONTRACTS OR 1076,8000 OZ OR 33.499 TONNES.

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER.  This month is generally the poorest delivery month of the year as must players prefer to go straight to the big active delivery month of December. Strangely October will turn out to be a huge delivery month. Today we have 736 contracts still standing for a GAIN of 289 contracts. Yesterday we had 20 notices served upon so we despite the raid yesterday and today, we have another whopper of a gain of 309 contractsor an additional 30,900 ozwill stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. We again have queue jumping by the bankers/official sector in their attempt to find physical metal on this side of the pond.

 

The next active delivery month after October is the non active contract month of November. Here we saw a GAIN of 87 contracts and thus the OI INCREASED to 1147.  The very big December contract month saw its oi RISE by 767 contracts UP to 466,962.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 4 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  400 OZ. (0.012 TONNES)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1244 CONTRACTS FROM 209,672 DOWN TO 210,916 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A 30 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER.  HERE WE HAVE 289 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 50CONTRACTS. WE HAD 68 CONTACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 18 CONTRACTS OR 90,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH.  THE ALSO REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

AFTER OCTOBER WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND HERE  WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 19 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 506. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 1297 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 157,441.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 19 notice(s) filed for 95,000, OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 334,977  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  323,928  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

OCT 16/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
4 notice(s)
 400 OZ
(0.012 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
732 contracts
(73200 oz)
2.1276 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
10,794 notices
10,7904 OZ
33.574 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else:  0

 

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 0  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/    today: no gold arrives again

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

Where on earth are the gold settlements?

 

 

FOR THE OCT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 4 contract(s) of which 4 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,794) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT. (736 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (4 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,152,600 OZ OR 35.8506 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of OCT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (10794 x 100 oz)  + (736)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (4 x 100 oz )which equals 1,152,600 oz standing OR 35.8506 TONNES in this  active delivery month of OCT.

We gained a strong 309 contracts OR 30,900 ADDITIONAL OZ which queue jumped as our bankers //official sector were searching for badly needed physical on this side of the pond. There is no doubt that these guys need to put out fires springing up everywhere!!

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 3 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

AND NOW……………………………………………………………………………     OCT. 35.8506 TONNES

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT IN SEPT 2 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.6 TONNES.

IF WE ADD THE THREE DELIVERY MONTHS: 68.4561

TONNES- 2.60 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 65.8561 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 35.78 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1,150,634.308 oz or  35.789 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,187.127 oz 254.65 tonnes

IN THE LAST 36 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
OCT 16 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,876,458.535  oz
Brinks
Loomis

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
602,865.480 oz
Brinks

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
596,286.800 oz
Delaware
JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)
19
CONTRACT(S)
(95,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
270 contracts
 1,350,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1012 contracts

5,060,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into Brinks:  602,865.480 oz

 

total dealer deposits: 602,865.480  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  595,286.800  oz

 

ii) Into Delaware: 1000.00 oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 157.8 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.25% of all official comex silver. (157.8 million/314.0 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  596,286.800  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of Brinks: 1,796,048.815 oz

ii) Out of Loomis: 80,409.720 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 1,876,458.535  oz

 

we had 0 adjustment :

 

 

total dealer silver:  81.424 million

total dealer + customer silver:  314.035 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the OCT 2019. contract month is represented by 19 contract(s) FOR 95,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1012 x 5,000 oz = 5,060,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (289) and the number of notices served upon today 19 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 1012 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (289)- number of notices served upon today (19 x 5000 oz equals 6,410,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month. 

WE  GAINED 19 contracts or an additional 95,000 oz of silver will stand at the comex as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards. For the past several weeks we have been witnessing queue jumping in both gold and silver.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 19 notice(s) filed for 95,000 OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  78,916 CONTRACTS

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 73,794 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 73,784 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 368 million  OZ 52.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.74% ((OCT 16/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.06% to NAV (OCT 15/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.74%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.90 TRADING 14.41///DISCOUNT 3.27

 

 

 

 

 

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP $10.25 TODAY//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.66 TONNES

OCT 15//WITH GOLD DOWN$13.25 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 14/2019: WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 TODAY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.00 TODAY, A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921,71 TONNES

OCT.9//WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT 8\WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

0CT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN 7 DOLLARS//A BIG CHANGE //A DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES//

INVENTORY RISES TO 923.76 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $15.25 A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 920.83 TONNES

SEPT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $32.50: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.88 TONNES

SEPT 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 26//WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90 A HUGE  PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  16.42 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

 

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.65 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN OUT OF THIS WORLD DEPOSIT OF 14.37 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 10.65 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 ON THE DAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.06 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 16/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A BIG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 12//WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A HUGE 7.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.15 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

 

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OCT 16/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 919.66 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 682 TRADING DAYS: 29.99 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 582 TRADING DAYS: A NET 137.15 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 16/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ//

OCT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.15 MILLION OZ//. INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ.

OCT 14/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ//

OCT 10/2016//WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.443 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 166,000 OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 1.2019 //WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.87 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.656 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25.//WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.338 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23.2019/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.899 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION PAPER OZ OF SILVER///INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.425 MILLION PAPER OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.179 MILLION OZ../

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 60 CENTS TODAY: A RATHER TIMID CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 842,000 PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 386.604 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

OCT 16/2019:

 

Inventory 382.789 MILLION OZ

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.00/ and libor 6 month duration 1.97

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .03

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.93%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.97

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.04

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Bank of England Warns of an ‘Abrupt’ Financial Collapse Due To Climate Emergency

◆ Coming financial collapse will likely be due to climate change warns Bank of England governor

◆ Marc Carney warns of an “abrupt” financial collapse due to climate emergency and warns that companies that ignore climate crisis will go bankrupt

◆ Fighting climate change will drive up interest rates and we must avoid a “climate-driven ‘Minsky moment’ involving a sudden collapse in asset prices” warns Carney

Carney realises that he and his central bank colleagues in the Fed and the ECB have created the real risk of financial collapse and contagion by creating a massive debt driven global asset bubble and is seeking to distract and deflect by blaming climate change

Carney and the Bank of England have got us into this debt driven financial mess through negative interest rates and currency printing on a scale never seen before in history; not climate change

◆ Read Carney’s pronunciations in the Guardian here and watch our latest podcast where we consider the real causes of financial collapse and contagion below

Listen or Watch Latest GoldnomicsPodcast Here

Gold Prices (LBMA – USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)

15-Oct-19 1494.75 1487.80, 1183.69 1178.34 & 1357.08 1353.30
14-Oct-19 1494.20 1490.60, 1188.79 1182.94 & 1354.04 1352.12
11-Oct-19 1498.35 1479.15, 1197.93 1166.01 & 1359.90 1338.33
10-Oct-19 1508.20 1494.80, 1232.35 1222.75 & 1368.69 1356.38
09-Oct-19 1503.40 1507.25, 1228.43 1232.93 & 1369.00 1372.65
08-Oct-19 1500.00 1505.85, 1225.50 1233.14 & 1365.30 1372.28
07-Oct-19 1502.15 1501.25, 1221.40 1218.11 & 1369.36 1365.54
04-Oct-19 1509.50 1499.15, 1223.75 1220.01 & 1374.70 1366.78
03-Oct-19 1504.00 1517.10, 1221.70 1223.84 & 1372.25 1380.26

SIGN UP FOR OUR AWARD WINNING MARKET UPDATES HERE

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Directo

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Do not worry about Putin. He couldn’t care less about holding USA dollars as he accumulates gold

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Putin’s big dollar dump cost Russia nearly $8 billion in one year

 Section: 

By Natasha Doff
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, October 15, 2019

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-15/putin-s-big-dollar-du…

The first year of President Vladimir Putin’s experiment in diversifying away from the U.S. dollar cost Russia about $7.7 billion in potential returns.

Russia’s central bank added exposure to underperforming currencies such as the euro and yuan just as it missed out on a 6.5% rally in the greenback. If it had maintained the previous dollar-heavy structure of it $531 billion reserves, gains for the year through March would have totaled around 3.8%, according to Bloomberg calculations.

… 

This is the economic cost of addressing geopolitical concerns,” said Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist at the Institute of International Economics in Washington. “It’s hard to judge yet if it was worth it. There was a cost this year, but it’s a long-term investment.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-15/putin-s-big-dollar-du…

end

Brien Lundin: Don’t call it QE, but come to New Orleans to learn how to respond to it

 Section: 

By Brien Lundin
Editor, Gold Newsletter
and CEO, New Orleans Investment Conference
Tuesday, October 15, 2019

I’d been warning that this would happen for a few years.

First I told investors that once the Federal Reserve decided to start cutting rates again, gold would quickly add a couple hundred dollars to the price.

So far the metal has risen about $250 since the Fed hinted at its first rate cut.

But the big move, I said, would come when the central bank decided to restart “quantitative easing.”

… 

Exactly one week ago Fed Chairman Jerome Powell seemed to do just that, announcing a new program to buy $60 billion of Treasury bills each month through the end of the second quarter of 2020.

But, he stressed, don’t you dare call this QE.

This new program “should in no way be confused with the large-scale asset purchase programs that we deployed after the financial crisis,” cautioned Powell. To go further, he subsequently stressed that “in no sense is this QE.”

OK, whatever you say, Mister Chairman.

Over the past few decades of watching the markets and the political circus on a daily basis, and talking with some of the world’s leading experts and players in geopolitics, I’ve learned a few things.

One of them is not to take public pronouncements like this at face value. In fact, the truth is almost always precisely the opposite of what the political hacks are trying to make you believe.

So if they don’t want you to think this is QE, if they’re going to such great pains to say it isn’t, then it is almost assuredly precisely that.

So why would Chairman Powell want us to think that this isn’t the start of the next round of unconventional monetary policy? The reasons are obvious, and include:

— A return to QE would expose the Fed’s failure to normalize monetary policy.

— It would spotlight the fact that the previous rounds of QE didn’t work.

— It would indicate that the Fed regards the current economic situation as desperate enough to renew QE, even though it didn’t work the first time.

— It would seem that the Fed was kowtowing to pressure from President Trump.

There are other reasons, but these will suffice. So if they’re lying to us, or in the more polite parlance, being “disingenuous,” then what’s really going on?

Wikipedia defines quantitative easing as “a monetary policy whereby a central bank buys predetermined amounts of government bonds or other financial assets in order to inject liquidity directly into the economy.”

In this case, it seems obvious to all but the most deluded Fed water-carriers (watch CNBC for case studies) that this new program fits the definition of QE like a fine Italian suit.

You can call it whatever you want, but it is what it is. And it is QE.

Consider that when the Fed announced QE1 on November 25, 2008, the stated goal of this limited program was to purchase about $700 billion in securities over “several quarters.”

If we define several quarters as nine months, that $700 billion works out to about $66 billion per month — remarkably close to the $60 billion the Fed just announced.

Add in the $60-$100 billion in revolving short-term repo funding operations. … plus the $180 billion they’ve already added to the balance sheet over the last month … and this new “temporary” program that you should never call QE is already larger than the initial version of QE1 in 2008.

The Fed is assuring us that this isn’t the beginning of a return to the extraordinary, previously unprecedented policies of quantitative easing.

At this point I think it’s important to note that this is precisely what former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke assured us on January 13, 2009, in an official speech entitled “The Crisis and the Policy Response.”

As Bernanke assured us back then, “The Federal Reserve’s approach to supporting credit markets is conceptually distinct from quantitative easing (QE), the policy approach used by the Bank of Japan from 2001 to 2006.”

Of course, we know what happened next. By the end of 2014 the Fed’s balance sheet had added nearly $4 trillion in assets.

Make no mistake — we would be foolish not to be prepared for a repeat performance.

Strike that — this won’t be just a repeat. Every bit of evidence argues that it will be an escalation of the previous policies. And by a considerable margin.

It has already begun.

To see how far it will go, consider how modern economies, built upon foundations of central bank proffered monetary adrenaline, are like addicts in need of ever-greater doses to get the same result.

In fact, there is never enough to satisfy the craving, and the financial markets (which are now inseparable from their associated economies) need ever-lower interest rates and ever-more monetary liquidity.

So what are the implications? How should we prepare?

The most obvious answer is to make sure we have plenty of gold. If the last rounds of QE brought gold to a new nominal high of $1,920, these new rounds should take it past the old 1980 high in real, current-dollar terms.

And that means a gold price in excess of $2,800, or about 85% above the current levels.

A lot of very smart people, many of whom I call friends, are predicting precisely how the central banks’ next rescue operations will affect the dollar, currencies, the stock market, bonds, and everything else.

Some have described the path ahead in great, frightening detail.

I’m not smart enough to predict exactly what’s going to happen as the Fed inevitably expands this first step back into QE. And I don’t think anyone else can tell you either.

But I do know this: You want to own gold (and silver) going into this next phase.

Moreover, this new bull market in gold and silver promises to be a major, multi-year trend that will take the shares of junior mining stocks to dizzying heights.

It’s already beginning, as many of our Gold Newsletter picks have multiplied in price. Others are poised to do so.

Once again this is the kind of opportunity that comes only every 10 or 15 years, one where we’re in a confirmed gold and silver bull market, and yet junior mining shares are still near bargain-basement levels.

You can find the best of these opportunities — the top picks of today’s top experts on the junior resource sector — at the upcoming New Orleans Investment Conference, being held in a couple of weeks, from November 1-4.

There’s still time for you to reserve your place at this blockbuster event.

But please heed this warning: Our room block at the luxurious Hilton Riverside is about to close.

Outside of this convenient room block, rooms in New Orleans at this time of year are incredibly expensive and hard to find. A couple of years ago the entire city sold out.

So if you hope to attend this year’s New Orleans Conference and take advantage of this generational opportunity, click here —

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

— to learn more and secure your spot.

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

end

Art Cashin is correct  The Fed is doing QE again but only bigger.

(zerohedge)

Art Cashin: Yes, Fed is doing QE again, only bigger

 Section: 

10:40a ET Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Trader and CNBC market commentator Art Cashin, hardly a radical in the financial world, writes today that while what the Federal Reserve is doing today may have different objectives from what it did as “quantitative easing” a few years ago, it’s the same thing. Cashin’s comments are headlined “Yes, the Fed Is Engaged in QE and It Is Larger Now Than It Was in 2013” and it’s posted at King World News here:

https://kingworldnews.com/art-cashin-yes-the-fed-is-engaged-in-qe-and-it…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

 

iii) Other physical stories:

Why you must own gold

(simon Black)

Here’s Why The Gold Price Could Really Soar Over The Next Two Years

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

At some point between the years 1483 and 1485, a Genoese businessman named Cristoffa Corombo had the opportunity to pitch his idea to King John II of Portugal.

This period was the dawn of what historians call the ‘Age of Discovery,’ a time when European explorers sailed all over the world opening new trade routes.

They were the tech entrepreneurs of their day, famous for their bold, absurdly expensive, and extremely high-risk ideas that often ended in catastrophic failure (or the mental/physical enslavement of countless people).

Due to the risky nature of these expeditions, the medieval ‘venture capitalists’ who backed them were typically royal governments.

There was an Arms Race of sorts emerging in the 1400s among European kingdoms to lay claim to overseas territories before anyone else had the opportunity.

And Portugal had the early lead– they were Silicon Valley. Prince Henry the Navigator had explored parts of the Atlantic and West Africa as early as the 1430s.

Corombo knew this. And that’s why he approached the King of Portugal first with a proposal: a twelve month voyage to cross the Atlantic, reach Asia, and return to Portugal.

The King was intrigued. But his advisers ultimately rejected the idea, believing that Corombo’s projections were way off, and that the venture was too expensive and risky.

So Corombo turned to the recently unified Kingdoms of Castile and Aragon in modern-day Spain.

Back then, Spain was like China today: it was rising rapidly, and everyone knew that Spain would eventually be the dominant superpower.

It took several years. But finally in 1492, the monarchs Ferdinand and Isabela funded Corombo’s venture. (Obviously we know him today as Columbus.)

And while his four main voyages to the Americas failed to achieve what he or his backers hoped, Columbus did at least demonstrate that there was tremendous potential across the Atlantic.

So Spain kept sending ships and financing new expeditions. And within 50 years, they controlled nearly all of modern-day Latin America.

The biggest prize for Spain in its rich new territories were the gold and silver mines.

The Spanish government kept careful records of the mines’ output, and modern historians estimate that tens of millions of kilograms of gold and silver were mined– worth potentially several trillion dollars in today’s money.

It was from all of this vast precious metals wealth that Spain became the dominant power in Europe, following the age-old Golden Rule: ‘He who has the gold makes the rules.’

Today our system is completely different; we’ve awarded dictatorial control of our money to a committee of unelected bureaucrats who conjure trillions of dollars, euros, yen, etc. out of thin air in their sole discretion.

Just a few days ago, the Federal Reserve announced plans to print $60 billion per month and loan it to the US government.

What value can money really have when it can be created from nothing and loaned, practically for free, to the federal government?

Were you or I to do this, we would go to prison on counterfeit charges. When the central bank does this it’s called ‘Quantitative Easing’.

This is why, more than five centuries after Columbus, and more than 5,000 years since it was first used as a form of money, gold and silver are still extremely relevant today.

Think about it: in the last ‘fiscal year’ (October 1, 2018 through September 30, 2019), the US economy couldn’t have performed better.

Corporate profits were at record highs. The stock market hit record highs. The IRS collected record tax revenue. There were no major natural disasters, wars, or crises.

Yet the national debt still increased by nearly $1.2 trillion. And the Treasury Department expects similar increases this Fiscal Year, and into the future.

It’s also worth noting that both the current US President, and every major candidate, wants a weaker US dollar.

And now the Federal Reserve is doing its part by cutting rates and printing money. (Europe and Japan are even worse off, with negative interest rates.)

Bottom line, there is no sound currency with strong, long-term fundamentals. And that’s why so many foreign governments and central banks are buying (literally) tons of gold.

And all of these factors– the debt, the deficits, the money printing, the interest rate cuts– they all weaken the US dollar. And they’re not going away.

Foreign government and central banks understand this. And that’s why they’re diversifying a portion of their reserves away from US dollars and into gold– an asset with a 5,000+ year history of maintaining its value.

It’s certainly reasonable to expect this demand for gold to continue.

But what’s really interesting is gold SUPPLY.

As mining companies pull gold out of the ground and gradually deplete their mines, they have to constantly explore for new gold deposits… or acquire other companies who have found gold deposits.

But that hasn’t happened.

Over the past six years, the average mine’s remaining production life has fallen more than 30% worldwide.

And the total volume of acquisitions in the sector is down 67.5% from last year.

This shows that there simply haven’t been enough new discoveries to replace existing production.

And a recent report from S&P forecasts a decline in gold mining output within the next two years.

(A number of prominent mining executives refer to this as ‘Peak Gold’)

So– consider that global gold mining production could actually be declining at a time when there’s a surge in gold demand from foreign governments, central banks, and any other rational investor looking to diversify away from paper currency.

That could certainly have a huge impact on gold prices in the future.

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0989/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.1046   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 12.33 POINTS OR 0.41%

HANG SANG CLOSED up 160.35 POINTS OR 0.51%

 

2. Nikkei closed up 265.71 POINTS OR 1.20%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 98.37/Euro FALLS TO 1.1039

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.18/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.77/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 53.06 and Brent: 58.88

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.41%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.89% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.23%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.30: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.39

3k Gold at $1484.50 silver at: 17.31   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 10/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.17

3m oil into the 53 dollar handle for WTI and 58 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.77 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9971 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0997 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.41%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.74% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.22%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.9003..

Futures Slide As China, Brexit Optimism Fizzles

European equities opened lower and US equity futures dropped as China threatened unspecified “strong countermeasures” if the US Congress enacts legislation supporting Hong Kong protesters, in a sign of the deepening strain between the world’s two largest economies, crippling optimism for a US-China trade deal, even as investors awaited the next batch of major corporate earnings, although Europe’s Stoxx 600 pared its decline, as gains in technology shares offset drops miners.

 

In the US, S&P index futures fell a day after the S&P 500 index closed just shy of record highs, after China threatened to retaliate if the U.S. Congress passes a bill offering support to pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong. The U.S. House passed legislation to require an annual review of whether Hong Kong is sufficiently autonomous from Beijing to justify its special trading status under American law. In the city itself, Chief Executive Carrie Lam announced housing initiatives that boosted property and finance stocks.

Following China’s angry response, stocks dipped in Shanghai and the yuan weakened. A dollar gauge was steady as Treasuries and most core European bonds gained.

 

Meanwhile, after a torrid 3-day rally, the pound retreated off a five-month highs on Wednesday as the chance of an imminent Brexit deal appeared to fade as the EU and Britain resumed talks in Brussels to avert a disorderly Brexit before an EU summit on Thursday and Friday.

Hopes of a Brexit breakthrough lifted markets on Tuesday, but investors turned more cautious stance after looking for a deal during the night that never came. “Most of the good news that could have been anticipated has been priced in, and now there’s caution it seems on whether we get a deal today or not,” said Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg. The pound fluctuated against the dollar with investors trading every headline, sending GBP volatility to levels not seen since the 2016 June Brexit referendum.

 

The pound had strengthened by close to 5% over the past week as investors rushed to reprice the prospect of a last-minute Brexit deal before the Oct. 31 deadline.

For those following the impossible twists and turns in Brexit here is a brief recap of some of the key overnight events via RanSquawk:

  • EU Brexit Negotiator Barnier told EU Commissioners he is optimistic of clinching a deal today, could go down the wire; VAT has emerged as a last minute problem, alongside concerns over “level playing field” provisions.
  • EU source states there is now not enough time to formally sign a Brexit deal at tomorrows summit, though there can still be a political ‘yes’ after-which EU/UK will need to return to finalise this., Express’ Barnes.
  • EU said to see a Brexit deal as impossible unless the UK moves; talks have reached an impasse amid DUP resistance according to sources adding the fate of a deal now hinges on the UK, according to sources.
  • Chances of a Brexit deal are low, DUP seem unlikely to support anything that is negotiable, according to ITV’s Peston citing a government source. Additionally, UK Official says the Government are downbeat on the prospect of a Brexit deal, stating the DUP are holding up progress and currently the chances of a deal are low
  • A large split reportedly opened up among Tory Eurosceptics whether to back PM Johnson’s Brexit plan with some in the ERG supporting it, whilst others spoke out against it, the Sun reported. DUP said gaps remain before it will support any fresh Brexit agreement following meeting with PM Johnson and reportedly will not back a Brexit deal if UK PM Johnson makes more concessions to the EU according to a source. However, reports later noted the DUP was said to be asking for billions for Northern Ireland for them to accept PM Johnson’s deal. UK PM Johnson is to brief his cabinet at 1600BST today, prior to a scheduled 1922 Committee meeting at approx.19:30BST.

The Hong Kong crisis and Brexit doubts have pushed geopolitical risks back to the forefront for investors after positive earnings from corporate heavyweights including JPMorgan and Johnson & Johnson boosted spirits on Tuesday.

Earlier, shares rose in Asia. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.5%, advancing for a fourth day, led by health-care firms, as China made a surprise $28 billion cash injection into its financial system and Hong Kong unveiled measures to bolster growth. Most markets in the region were up, with Australia and South Korea leading gains. The Topix climbed 0.7%, driven by Toyota Motor and Fanuc. China, however, faded the regional optimism as the Shanghai Composite Index reversed earlier gains to close 0.4% lower, as Kweichow Moutai and Longi Green Energy Technology weighed on the gauge after quarterly results. China threatened to retaliate if the U.S. Congress passes a bill that would require an annual review of whether Hong Kong is sufficiently autonomous to justify its special trading status. India’s Sensex fluctuated after rising for three days, as Housing Development Finance gained and ITC retreated. The nation’s stocks will see further gains in the coming months under an accommodative policy-rate environment, analysts at Credit Suisse Wealth Management India wrote in a note

“Even though we are most optimistic that a deal does happen, we don’t think the most likely outcome is that it happens by October 31, so you would be looking at some form of extension and potentially elections,” said, Andrew Sheets, chief cross asset strategist at Morgan Stanley. Third-quarter earnings are expected to show an overall decline in earnings, which could also weigh on morale, Sheets said. Morgan Stanley had a below-consensus view on how companies would fare this quarter, he said.

Meanwhile, structural concerns remain with Europe’s companies struggling with uncertainties ranging from Brexit and the U.S.-China trade war to Germany’s manufacturing recession. Companies listed on the STOXX 600 index are now expected to report a decline in third-quarter earnings of as much as 3.7%, worse than the 3% expected a week ago, according to I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv.

In emerging markets, Turkey’s Halkbank saw its shares and bonds plunge after U.S. prosecutors charged the state-owned lender with taking part in a multibillion-dollar scheme to evade U.S. sanctions on Iran. A day earlier, Washington imposed sanctions on Turkish officials, raised tariffs and halted trade talks after Turkey invaded northeastern Syria in a campaign again Kurdish fighters. Before Turkish markets opened, authorities banned short selling on seven large Turkish bank stocks, including Halkbank. Selling shares in the banks only to buy them later in the session was also banned, authorities said.

In geopolitics, the Trump administration said that China’s Cosco tankers carrying Iranian oil that shut off transponders are engaging in “dangerous behavior”, according to senior US officials. Eslewhere, US Senator Graham said he will introduce a bill on Thursday sanctioning Turkey for Syria incursion and that US prosecutors charged Turkey’s Halkbank in regards to alleged Iran sanctions violations. In response, Turkey President Erdogan says he will evaluate whether to visit the US next month, after meeting US delegation in Turkey this week.

In commodities, Brent crude shed about 0.1 cent to $58.66 a barrel. U.S. crude rose 10 cents to $52.91 after falling the day before over fears the trade war would keep squeezing the global economy.

Looking at the day ahead, this morning data releases include September new car registrations for the EU, September inflation data in the UK and for the Euro Area, while this afternoon in the US the big release is the September retail sales report. Also out this afternoon in the US is the October NAHB housing market index and August business inventories, along with the Fed’s Beige Book. It’s also another busy day for central bank speakers with the Fed’s Evans and Brainard, ECB’s Knot, Lane and Villeroy, and BoE’s Carney all due to speak. Earnings wise the highlights are Bank of America, IBM and Netflix.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2,987.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 392.79
  • MXAP up 0.6% to 159.71
  • MXAPJ up 0.5% to 512.51
  • Nikkei up 1.2% to 22,472.92
  • Topix up 0.7% to 1,631.51
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 26,664.28
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 2,978.71
  • Sensex down 0.2% to 38,441.68
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.3% to 6,736.54
  • Kospi up 0.7% to 2,082.83
  • Brent futures down 0.4% to $58.50/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,484.44
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 98.36
  • German 10Y yield unchanged at -0.418%
  • Euro up 0.03% to $1.1036
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.4 bps to 0.596%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 0.233%

Top Overnight News

  • U.K. and European Union officials edged closer to a last-minute Brexit deal — but it risks being jeopardized by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Northern Irish allies.
  • China threatened unspecified “strong countermeasures” if the U.S. Congress enacts legislation supporting Hong Kong protesters, in a sign of the deepening strain between the world’s two largest economies as they attempt to seal a trade deal.
  • Democratic presidential candidates treated Elizabeth Warren like a front-runner in the fourth debate Tuesday, ripping into the progressive contender on her sincerity and poking holes in her signature policy plans to provide health care for all and tax the rich
  • Hong Kong’s legislature adjourned shortly after Chief Executive Carrie Lam began her annual policy address on Wednesday, as opposition lawmakers repeatedly shouted protest slogans
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand Deputy Governor Geoff Bascand said there’s a reasonable chance of another cut in interest rates to stimulate growth and inflation.
  • The German political class is preparing itself to deliver bold fiscal stimulus if the economy needs it. Lawmakers from Merkel’s Christian Democrat-led group have been among the most crucial opponents of finance ministry plans to respond to an economic hit and their stance is beginning to soften, according to two people familiar with party discussions.
  • One of London’s top money managers, responsible for overseeing billions of pounds of assets at M&G Prudential Plc, is alleged to have sexually harassed female colleagues over several years.
  • The U.S. brought a criminal case against one of Turkey’s largest banks for aiding a scheme to evade sanctions against Iran, a move that carries political overtones as tensions build over Turkey’s military incursions in Syria

Asian equity markets traded mostly higher after taking impetus from the gains across global peers which were spurred by Brexit-related hopes on reports negotiators were closing in on a draft Brexit deal and as several large US banks kicked off a predominantly strong start to Q3 earnings season. ASX 200 (+1.3%) was led by Consumer Staples although commodity names lagged especially the gold producers due to recent losses in the complex and with Rio Tinto choppy despite strong Q3 iron ore shipment updates. Nikkei 225 (+1.2%) rose to a fresh YTD high and Chinese markets also initially conformed to the upbeat tone helped by strong loans and financing data, as well as the PBoC injection of CNY 200bln through its Medium-term Lending Facility, although the gains in Hang Seng (+0.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.4%) were short-lived/trimmed as China urged US lawmakers to stop interfering and threatened to retaliate with strong measures after the US House passed a bill aimed at supporting the Hong Kong protests. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower as they tracked the declines in T-notes with safe-haven demand subdued by the rally in stocks and with the BoJ also only in the market for T-bills.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong Helps First Home Buyers as Inequality Fuels Unrest
  • Huawei Defies U.S. Ban With Torrid Growth in Smartphone Sales
  • Turkey Bans Short-Selling in Top Banks as U.S. Indicts Halkbank
  • Latitude Financial Shelves Australia’s Biggest IPO of 2019

Major European bourses are flat (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%) in what has been a choppy session thus far, as global equities consolidate following yesterday’s rally, spurred by increasing hopes that a Brexit deal may soon be struck. Given the associated rally in Sterling since the start of the week, the FTSE 100 (-0.1%) modestly underperforms. Looking ahead, traders will be eyeing earnings from US heavy weights Netflix, IBM, Bank of America and PayPal, US Retail sales data and a slate of Fed, ECB and BoE speak. In terms of the sectors; Materials (-0.8%) and Financials (-0.4%) are laggards, with the former pressured by a decline in base metal prices and a fall in yields (as bonds rebound off yesterday’s lows) pressuring the former. Conversely, Health Care (+0.5%) is an outperformer, with Roche (+0.4%) providing support after solid earnings. In terms of other notable movers; Asos (+20.1%) shares shot higher at the open after strong earnings; the Co. reported pretax earnings and revenue that exceeded forecasts. Meanwhile, disappointing numbers kept shares of ASML (-0.6%), TomTom (-5.0%) and Wacker Chemie (-1.4%) on the back foot. Elsewhere, Infineon (-1.4%) shares were under pressure following a broker downgrade at SocGen.

Top European News

  • European Car Sales Jump Masks Gloomy Outlook for Industry
  • U.K. Inflation Holds Below BOE Target as Fuel Costs Fall
  • Roche Boosts Outlook for Third Time as New Drugs Surge
  • Santander Follows Goldman Sachs With Bet on German Fintechs

In FX, the Pound’s almost interminable and total dependence on Brexit developments continues, with only a token nod to mixed/softer elements via UK CPI and PPI metrics, before returning to headline and screen watch amidst dwindling hopes that a deal can be found in time for the looming ‘deadline’. In short, prospects of a compromise on the Irish backstop and compatible customs arrange for the border looks set to be dashed at the final hour by ongoing DUP resistance, and in stark contrast to the mood late yesterday when negotiations were said to be close to draft stage. Accordingly, Cable has reversed further from around 1.2800 to just above 1.2650 before picking up again and Eur/Gbp rebounded to circa 0.8720 vs 0.8628 or so at one stage.

  • NOK/NZD – The other G10 underperformers, as the Norwegian Krona plunges to fresh ytd lows under 10.1350 and not far from weakest levels on record on a mixture of bearish technical impulses, less supportive Norges Bank policy vibes and perhaps more data reflection/retrospection following September’s trade balance swinging from surplus to shortfall. Conversely, the Kiwi has pulled back from 0.6300+ recovery highs towards 0.6260 even though NZ CPI was a tad firmer than forecast, as subsequent comments from RBNZ Deputy Governor Bascand reaffirmed that there is scope for more easing as the economy is still prone to contagion from external shocks.
  • JPY/CHF/EUR/CAD/AUD – The safe-haven Yen and Franc (plus Gold on the commodity side) have pared some losses due to the aforementioned dampened Brexit/broader risk sentiment and have both returned to range trade mode awaiting more unfolding news on top of anything else on the US-China and geopolitical front. Usd/Jpy and Usd/Chf are meandering between 108.86-60 and 0.9990-62 parameters respectively, while the Euro and Loonie are also relatively contained after the former reclaimed 1.1000+ status and latter rebounded through 1.3200. Eur/Usd is currently just under 1.1050 and some tech levels close by (50 DMA at 1.1040 and a 1.1055 Fib), with decent option expiries also keeping the headline pair in check (1.1025 in 1.1 bn, 1.1050-60 in 1.2 bn and 1.3 bn at the 1.1075 strike), while Usd/Cad is consolidating back over the big figure in the run up to Canadian inflation data. Elsewhere, the Aussie is also on the defensive into data (labour report tomorrow) within a 0.6755-25 band, albeit holding up a bit better than its Antipodean peer on favourable crosswinds as Aud/Nzd bounces firmly (1.0750+ at present).
  • EM – The Rand and Lira are trying to withstand another bout of selling pressure in wake of more negative factors in the form of Eskom cutting power supply and more sanctions against Turkey from the US. Usd/Zar and Usd/Try have been up at 15.0500 and 5.9310, but the latter is now sub-5.9000 after probable state bank intervention.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures are mixed/flat with little by way of fresh catalysts for the complex as eyes remain on any US-Sino and Brexit developments alongside geopolitical news-flow. The former resides just around the 53/bbl mark after having traded on either side of the level during APAC trade, whilst its Brent counterpart trades just below the 59/bbl level as Brexit optimism spurred some gains in energy futures. In terms of production figures, TASS reported that Russian oil output in the first half of October stood at 11.23mln BPD, which is 19.7k BPD less than September levels. On the geopolitical front, the Trump Administration said that China’s Cosco tankers carrying Iranian oil that shut off transponders are engaging in “dangerous behaviour”, according to senior US officials. The announcement itself did little to sway prices but it’s worth keeping in mind future implications/impact it may have on trade talks. As a reminder, tonight will see the release of the weekly API crude inventory data. Looking at metals, gold is relatively flat within a tight range below the 1500/oz mark, albeit the yellow metal is supported by the latest Brexit sources which stated that the UK and EU are reportedly at an impasse. Meanwhile, copper is underperforming with the red metal back below the 2.60/lb mark despite seemingly bullish supply side developments with copper disruption and lower Rio Tinto copper output. ING highlights that MMG has halted almost 90% of mining capacity at its Peruvian Las Bambas mine (400k tpa) whilst Chilean mineworkers at its Carmen de Andacollo (60K tpa) have been on strike for the past two days. Further reports also stated that Antofagasta’s Antucoya (72k tpa) Chillean mine will see strikes amid a row.

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

In the battle for ‘deals’ it was Brexit that dominated column inches yesterday with the big development being the late afternoon Bloomberg headlines suggesting that EU and UK negotiators are closing in on a draft Brexit deal. Sterling immediately surged back above $1.270 and held that move into the evening where it eventually closed up +1.42% on the day at $1.279. It’s trading at $1.276 as we go to print this morning and that puts it at around the highest in five months. Unsurprisingly there were also big moves across UK assets more broadly. Indeed the FTSE 100 erased deeper losses to end -0.03%, which was still impressive given the pound’s strength. In rates, Gilts underperformed the rest of Europe with 10y yields up +5.3bps while inflation breakevens were stronger.

As for the specifics, the story suggested that draft legal text will still ultimately rely on whether PM Johnson gets DUP support, as the unconfirmed reports suggest that the deal will include some form of border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. However, the fact that Johnson has reportedly been willing to concede on that key point is ultimately the most important factor here. The Reuters headlines were less bullish with one quoting a senior EU diplomat as saying that reports of an imminent deal are “way too premature.” Late last night, ERG members met with PM Johnson and reportedly many of the senior MPs were displeased with his concessions. Talks continued into late last night and DUP party leader Arlene Foster released a statement saying that “it would be fair to indicate gaps remain and further work is required”. So clearly there are still key issues to be ironed out but that being said it would appear a deal is in the crosshairs. Stay tuned for more news this morning.

All-in-all though the improved Brexit mood music combined with US earnings helped equity markets surge higher across the board. That was the case in the US with the S&P 500 ending +1.00% which means the index has now climbed in four of the last five sessions for a cumulative gain of +3.55%. It’s also back to within a whisker – 1.00% to be exact – of the all-time highs again, albeit it was unable to close above the psychologically significant 3,000 level. The NASDAQ (+1.24%) and DOW (+0.89%) were up a similar amount while at a sector level it was healthcare and financials which led the move. The former was helped by earnings beats from UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson while the latter was a reaction to the slew of bank earnings. Indeed there were earnings beats for JP Morgan and Citigroup – although the latter did miss at the revenue line – which saw share prices climb +2.98% and +1.41% respectively. Wells Fargo results were a little more disappointing however shares still closed up +1.62% while Goldman Sachs (+0.29%) shares closed off the lows. Nevertheless, a five-day winning run for US banks means the sector is now back to within 0.56% of the 2019 high from July.

Contributing to the move also was a bit of a reversal in rates which appeared to be mostly due to the Brexit-fuelled Gilt selloff more than anything else. In the end 10y Treasuries rose +4.2bps and +9.8bps off the intraday lows to close at 1.773%. The Gilt move saw 10y yields go from as low as 0.608% to as high as 0.716% before closing at 0.686%. At the short end, 2y treasury yields rose +2.7bps, helping the yield curve to steepen. Indeed the 3m-10y steepened +5.5bps to 10.5, after spending most of this year in negative territory. It was a similar story across the rest of Europe where Bunds finished +3.9bps higher and OATs +2.3bps. The Greenback was the main loser with the Dollar index down -0.17%.

This morning markets have been stopped in their tracks a bit, most notably in Hong Kong and China, after China’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement threatening “strong countermeasures” should US Congress enact a bill supporting the Hong Kong protests. This bill already has strong bipartisan support and was passed by the House yesterday. The CNY is trading -0.2% weaker while the Hang Seng is flat and Shanghai Comp pared gains to trade down -0.28%. Futures on the S&P 500 are also down -0.30%.

A spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said “China strongly urges certain people in the U.S. Congress to grasp the situation, immediately stop advancing the bill regarding Hong Kong and interfering in Hong Kong’s affairs to avoid further damaging China-U.S. relations”. The SCMP also reported “In a crucial period in which China and the US are meeting each other halfway (on trade), some American politicians are effectively putting the car in reverse by pushing this bill and flagrantly meddling in China’s internal affairs”.

In other news, the Central Bank of South Korea cut its policy rate for the second time this year to 1.25%, matching a previous record low and warned that growth would be weaker than forecast as a global economy hit by trade tensions slows. Elsewhere, the PBoC injected CNY200 bn ($28bn) into the financial system via loans to banks, maturing in one year, through the medium-term lending facility today while keeping the interest rate steady. The move was a bit of a surprise as the authorities usually inject liquidity when previously offered loans come due, and the next batch won’t mature until November 5.

Back to yesterday, where trade headlines played second fiddle to Brexit but nonetheless included ongoing uncertainty over what exactly the US and China agreed to last week. Reports from China(per Bloomberg) suggested that they want the US to formally remove the threat of new tariffs in December and also to remove existing tariffs on $50 billion of goods, which would be a substantively larger request than the prior report of simply referring this week’s tranche of tariffs. Still, the two sides also continued to say that they are on the same page, so the rhetoric remains mostly positive.

Speaking of trade, the fallout thus far from the trade war saw the IMF make a fifth-straight forecast cut to their 2019 global growth forecast yesterday. They now expect growth to fall to 3.0% this year, the lowest forecast since the financial crisis, and down from 3.2% in their April report. For 2020, they lowered their forecast 0.1pp to 3.4%. Significantly, they expect trade volumes to grow just 1.1% this year, down from 3.6% in 2018. On a regional level, the Fund cut their 2019 and 2020 forecasts for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. For the US, they cut the 2019 figure but raised the 2020 figure to offset it.

Finally, the data was by and large secondary to everything else yesterday. In Germany the October ZEW survey was mixed with the current situations component deteriorating 5.4pts and more than expected to -25.3 (vs. -23.6 expected) but the expectations component little changed at -22.8 (vs. -26.4 expected). In the UK a slightly better earnings print for August (+3.8% vs. +3.7% expected) was offset by a surprising one-tenth pickup in the unemployment rate to 3.9%. On top of that the three-month/three-month employment change was negative (-56k) so a clear sign of a slowdown. The Brexit news clearly overshadowed this but it’s significant for the BoE nonetheless given that weaker soft data is showing signs of filtering into the hard data. In the US, the New York Fed’s 3-year inflation expectations survey fell to 2.37%, its lowest level since the survey started over six years ago.

Looking at the day ahead, this morning data releases include September new car registrations for the EU, September inflation data in the UK and for the Euro Area, while this afternoon in the US the big release is the September retail sales report. Also out this afternoon in the US is the October NAHB housing market index and August business inventories, along with the Fed’s Beige Book. It’s also another busy day for central bank speakers with the Fed’s Evans and Brainard, ECB’s Knot, Lane and Villeroy, and BoE’s Carney all due to speak. Earnings wise the highlights are Bank of America, IBM and Netflix.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.53 POINTS OR 0.41%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 160.35 POINTS OR 0.61%   /The Nikkei closed UP 265.71 POINTS OR 1.20%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.18%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0989 /Oil UP TO 53.06 dollars per barrel for WTI and 58.88 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0989 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1046 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Japan/China

Japan buys the most treasuries since 2013//China dumps again

(zerohedge)

 

Japan Buys Most Treasuries Since 2013 In August, China Dump Continues

Overall, US foreign net transactions saw a $41 billion outflow – the biggest monthly outflow since Dec 2018…

  • Foreign net selling of Treasuries at $30.5b
  • Foreign net selling of equities at $21b
  • Foreign net selling of corporate debt at $21b
  • Foreign net buying of agency debt at $30.6b

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

That outflow is despite a huge buy from Japan… which bought almost $44 billion in US treasuries in August – the most since July 2013…

 

Source: Bloomberg

But China dumped Treasuries for the fifth month in the last six to its lowest level of holdings since May 2017…

 

Source: Bloomberg

However, Belgium (often considered a proxy for hiding China’s buying) saw Treasury holdings soar $11.8billion to its highest level since April 2015…

(often considered a proxy for hiding China’s buying) saw Treasury holdings soar $11.8billion to its highest level since April 2015…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, Cayman Island(proxy for hedge funds) holdings of US Treasuries soared by an almost record $17.9 billion in Augusts

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

Finally we note that as Treasury holdings tumble worldwide, gold reserves have been soaring…

Source: Bloomberg

Regime change?

3 C CHINA

China/USA

China threatens with retaliation over the USA House bill on Hong Kong

(zerohedge)

Futures, Yuan Slide As China Threatens Retaliation Over US House Bill On Hong Kong

Earlier this evening, the U.S. House gave support to pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kongby passing a bill that would require an annual review of whether the city is sufficiently autonomous from Beijing to justify its special trading status under U.S. law.

The bill provides for sanctions against officials “responsible for undermining fundamental freedoms and autonomy in Hong Kong.”

China is upset (and so is LeBron probably)!

China’s foreign ministry has issued a statement condemning the bill and threatening retaliation…

 

Q: It is reported that the U.S. House of Representatives plenary session reviewed and approved the “Hong Kong Bill of Rights on Human Rights and Democracy” on the 15th. what opinions do the Chinese have on this issue?

A: We express our strong indignation and resolute opposition to the US House of Representatives’ insistence on adopting the so-called “Hong Kong Bill of Rights on Human Rights and Democracy.”

At present, what Hong Kong faces is not the so-called human rights and democracy issues, but the issue of ending violence, rectifying order and upholding the rule of law as soon as possible. The US House of Representatives ignores the facts, reverses black and white, and calls serious crimes such as arson, smuggling shops, and violent assaults as human rights and democracy. It is a naked double standard that fully exposes some people in the United States on human rights and democracy. Extremely hypocritical and undermining the sinister intentions of Hong Kong’s prosperity and stability and containing China’s development. The United States also has important interests in Hong Kong. If the relevant bill is finally passed into law, it will not only harm the interests of the Chinese side, but also damage Sino-US relations, and it will seriously damage the interests of the United States.

With regard to the wrong decision of the US side, China will surely take effective measures to resolutely counteract and firmly safeguard its sovereignty, security, and development interests.

I want to stress once again that Hong Kong is China’s Hong Kong. Hong Kong affairs are purely China’s internal affairs and cannot be interfered by any outside forces. We advised the US side to recognize the situation and immediately stop promoting the review of the relevant Hong Kong bill and immediately stop interfering with Hong Kong affairs and interfering in China’s internal affairs.

Will China withhold its Ag purchases unless Trump vetos the bill?

Stock futures are sliding…

And Yuan legged lower…

Source: Bloomberg

We look forward to hearing from LeBron and his condemnation of the Democrats’ attack on China.

END
China
China has been fudging their books from day one as they try and hide dollars leaving the country. We now have a way of determining what is escaping. Dollars leaving the country is deadly to the China
A must read…
(zerohedge)

Panic Behind The Scenes: China’s Capital Outflows Are Soaring

For months, pundits have been looking at China’s official data – be it the PBOC’s reserve data or SAFE’s monthly flow report – for indication that capital flight is picking up again as it did in 2015 in the aftermath of the first yuan devaluation, and so far the data has refused to validate predictions that Chinese depositors are quietly pulling their money from China’s financial system.

Does this mean that Beijing has been successful in implementing draconian controls on outbound foreign investment and other capital movements to lock the front door through which money used to leave China.

That’s one possibility. However, as the WSJ notes, instead of using the front door, Chinese capital is increasingly “walking through the back door” following the recent sharp devaluation in the yuan, which has slumped 6% against the dollar since late April, and 10% since mid-2018; of course should the back door open any wider Beijing will find itself again forced to sell down big parts of its currency reserves to avoid a panic. Worries about cracks in currency fortress China are another reason Beijing is likely to remain wary of aggressive monetary stimulus.

 

It’s also why China – the country where economic data is anything but what is represented by the government – has no qualms about fabricating data to refute a worst case scenario that would unleash a self-fulfilling prophecy leading to more devaluation and more capital flight.

And yet, despite Beijing’s best efforts at misdirection – and outright data fabrication – there is a relatively simple way to keep track of what is really happening with China’s fund flows behind the scenes. As the WSJ notes, the relevant figure to track is China’s “errors and omissions” line in its balance of payments.

This number represents the residual of the main BOP accounts registering trade and investment flows—in other words, capital that has moved across China’s borders without being documented. An equation “plug.”

Whereas in most countries this line item is relatively small, in China, since 2014 when Beijing decided to stop appreciating the yuan against the dollar, it has become :persistently and mysteriously large and negative” with analysts at Rhodium Group and others long suspecting this item represents undocumented capital flight.

And while this shadow capital flight moderated in 2018, the trend recently became even more striking, as “errors and omissions” hit a record first-half high of $131 billion in 2019, the WSJ notes citing Gene Ma of the Institute of International Finance, much larger than the first-half average of $80 billion during the last period of big capital outflows in 2015 and 2016.

On the surface, this suggests that true capital flight is now twice as large as what was observed after the 2015 devaluation, and indicated that while measures instituted a few years ago to limit capital flight have appeared effective, China remains vulnerable to rising outflows through unofficial channels. Furthermore, the country has yet to report its third-quarter figures, following the big yuan depreciation in early August, when it dipped below 7.00 against the dollar for the first time in a decade.

So what to make of this? Two things, and neither is good.

First, as the WSJ notes, Beijing’s decision to allow its currency to offset the pressure from the trade war has been one of China’s key survival strategies so far, but “with increasing signs that the ocean of capital sloshing around behind China’s dike is finding new cracks—and out-of-control domestic food-price inflation adding to the stakes—that strategy is looking riskier.”

The second one is that with capital already fleeing China, any future attempts to boost China’s economy using monetary policy will be promptly punished, which also explains why the world is sinking into recession: as a reminder, in a world where China has been the primary growth dynamo thanks to its tremendous credit impulse after the financial crisis, this massive credit creation mechanism has now shut down…

… as Beijing runs the risk of an out-of-control capital flight should it push too hard to stimulate the local economy at the expense of another sharp devaluation in the yuan. In short, whereas the official data does not show it, reading between the lines suggests that the global economy may be on the verge of collapse.

END
Generally Golden week is a terrific time for the Chinese to buy homes. This year it plummeted by 86% in Shanghai. Expect a property bloodbath shortly.
(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Shanghai Housing Sales Plunge 86% In Golden Week

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Golden Week, a seven-day Chinese holiday, is traditionally a peak period for home sales.

This year, sales plummeted.

The South China Post reports ‘Golden Week’ Property Sales Plunge in Major Chinese Cities.

Property sales in China’s major cities saw one of their worst “golden week” holidays in years, as buyers held back amid a slowing economy and tight restrictions on mortgage loans.

Sales of new homes in Beijing dropped to their lowest level since 2014 during the week following the National Day holiday, according to data from the property information portal Zhuge.com.

By area, sales of new homes in Shanghai plummeted 86 per cent to 5,000 square metres, while the capital saw a 92 per cent plunge to 2,000 sq metre, according to data from Centaline Property.

Clement Luk, a director for east China at Centaline Property, said the home-buying mood has been dampened by the tightening of mortgage lending and the prolonged US-China trade war that discouraged spending.

“People do not want to commit in big investment now, like purchasing any homes, as market sentiment has cooled quickly since March,” he said. “Most owners prefer travelling during golden week holiday instead.”

“Deals are increasingly difficult to conclude unless owners are willing to cut selling prices at big discounts,” said Guo Yi, chief analyst at Beijing-based property consultancy Heshuo Institute.

Beijing Dilemma

Michael Pettis@michaelxpettis

Beijing faces the dilemma of all speculative markets: because most real estate buying is now driven by expected price increases, when prices credibly stop rising, buyers disappear and prices begin to fall. Price stability isn’t a real option.https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3032030/golden-week-property-sales-plunge-major-chinese-cities-amid-slowing  via @scmpnews

‘Golden week’ property sales plunge in major Chinese cities amid slowing economy, tight mortgage…

Sales of new homes in Beijing dropped to their lowest level since 2014 during the week following the National Day holiday

end

When property speculation ends, property bloodbaths begin.

Hong Kong Braces For Violent Weekend After Protest Organizer Attacked; Lam Rules Out Concessions

Hong Kong is bracing for a violent weekend after Civil Human Rights Front organizer, Jimmy Sham, was reportedly attacked on Thursday afternoon by two masked men in a restaurant who were wielding a metal rod and a baseball bat, according to RTHK.

Sham told RTHK that he was having lunch with a friend on Tak Hing Street in Jordan, when the two men came into the restaurant and smashed their weapons on the table.

When the men lunged at him, Sham said his friend tried to stop them but was hit on his left arm three times.

Sham said his friend suffered bruises and was sent to hospital.

Earlier in the day, a group of pro-government people surrounded Sham in what they said was action to “denounce” the front. The group called Sham a rioter and tried to snatch a loudhailer from him. –RTHK

Civil Human Rights Front has been behind most of this summer’s rallies sparked by a mass extradition bill. The group has been refused permission to protest on Saturday and is currently appealing the ban.

Lam rules out concessions

Earlier in the week, embattled Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam said she would not make any more concessions to the pro-democracy protesters, citing escalating violence which the police are now calling “life threatening” after the detonation of a homemade explosive device last weekend.

“I have said on many occasions that violence will not give us the solution. Violence would only breed more violence,” said Lam at a Tuesday news conference. “For concessions to be made simply because of escalating violence will only make the situation worse. On the other hand, we should consider every means to end the violence,” she added.

Approximately 2,300 people have been arrested in Hong Kong since June – nearly a third of them being children, with some as young as 12. Two people have been shot and wounded by police, while thousands have been injured.

On Wednesday, Lam was forced to abandon a speech in the Hong Kong legislature after lawmakers jeered her off the stage.

Later, she reiterated that there would be no concessions granted to protesters, according to Reuters, however she did suggest building public housing as a solution to lower housing costs.

Lam, who had to broadcast the annual address via a video link after the rowdy scenes in the city’s assembly, hoped to restore confidence in her administration and address discontent after four months of often violent anti-government protests.

She had to halt her initial attempts to deliver the address after pro-democracy lawmakers called out for “five demands, not one less” and projected the protest rallying cry onto a backdrop behind her. –Reuters

Protesters’ demands include an independent inquiry into excessive police force, amnesty, and universal suffrage. Lam has flat out rejected the latter two – rejecting amnesty for those arrested as illegal, and saying universal suffrage was beyond her power.

“Any acts that advocate Hong Kong’s independence and threaten the country’s sovereignty, security and development interests will not be tolerated,” said Lam, adding “Despite the stormy times and overwhelming difficulties Hong Kong is experiencing, I believe that so long as we accurately adhere to the principle of ‘one country, two systems’, we will be able to get out of the impasse.”

Meanwhile, pro-democracy Hong Kong lawmaker Tanya Chan has called for Lam’s resignation for failing to address the five core demands made by the protest movement

“Both her hands are soaked with blood. We hope Carrie Lam withdraws and quits,” said Chan in an emotional news conference.

With scant progress made on both sides, prepare for another violent weekend.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/USA

Halkbank, owned by the Turkish Government has now been charged for participating in helping Iran avoid sanctions leveled against them.

This is going to hurt the country.

(zerohedge)

Lira Tumbles After US Charges Turkey’s Halkbank For Participating In Iran “Sanctions Evasion Scheme”

One day after the US announced a menu of sanctions and tariffs on Turkey, the Turkish lira rallied as the US response to Erdogan’s invasion of northern Syria was less dramatic than some expected. All that changed moments ago, when the Lira tumbled nearly 300 pips in seconds after the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York announced it charged Turkey’s Halkbank, one of the country’s largest banks, for its participation in a “multibillion-dollar Iranian sanctions evasion scheme.”

According to the statement released just after 4pm ET, Halkbank, Turkey’s 7th largest bank, was charged in a six-count Indictment with fraud, money laundering, and sanctions offenses related to the bank’s participation in a multibillion-dollar scheme to evade U.S. sanctions on Iran.  The case is assigned to United States District Judge Richard M. Berman.

In other words, yesterday’s initial sanctions levied on Turkey were just the beginning. Sure enough, moments after the announcement, Senator Lindsay Graham said he will introduce a bill on Thursday sanctioning Turkey for its Syria incursion.

Meanwhile, at roughly the same time, Erdogan made it clear he was seeking to arb his foreign policy options, with Anadolu reporting that Erdogan just held a phone call with Russia’s Vladimir Putin

 

ANADOLU AGENCY (ENG)

@anadoluagency

Turkish President Erdogan holds phone call with Russian counterpart Putin

In immediate response to these latest developments, the Turkish lira tumbled to session lows just below 5.92.

Below we excerpt from the full press release charging Halkbank:

U.S. Attorney Geoffrey S. Berman stated:  “The facts that emerged at the full, fair, and public trial of Halkbank’s deputy general manager, which culminated in a jury’s January 2018 guilty verdict against him, illustrated senior Halkbank management’s participation in this brazen scheme to circumvent our nation’s Iran sanctions regime.  As alleged in today’s indictment, Halkbank’s systemic participation in the illicit movement of billions of dollars’ worth of Iranian oil revenue was designed and executed by senior bank officials.  The bank’s audacious conduct was supported and protected by high-ranking Turkish government officials, some of whom received millions of dollars in bribes to promote and protect the scheme.  Halkbank will now have to answer for its conduct in an American court.”

Assistant Attorney General for National Security John C. Demers said:  “Halkbank, a Turkish state-owned bank, allegedly conspired to undermine the United States Iran sanctions regime by illegally giving Iran access to billions of dollars’ worth of funds, all while deceiving U.S. regulators about the scheme.  This is one of the most serious Iran sanctions violations we have seen, and no business should profit from evading our laws or risking our national security.”

FBI Assistant Director-in-Charge William F. Sweeney Jr. said:  “As we allege today, Halkbank, a Turkish financial institution whose majority shareholder is the government of Turkey, willfully engaged in deceptive activities designed to evade U.S. sanctions against Iran.  Halkbank illegally facilitated the illicit transfer of billions of dollars to benefit Iran, and for far too long the bank and its leaders willfully deceived the United States to shield their actions from scrutiny.  That deception ends today.  The FBI will aggressively pursue those who intentionally violate U.S. sanctions laws and attempt to undercut our national security.”

According to the allegations in the Indictment, returned today in Manhattan federal court[1]:

From approximately 2012, up to and including approximately 2016, TÜRKİYE HALK BANKASI A.S. (“Halkbank”) was a foreign financial institution organized under the laws of and headquartered in Turkey.  The majority of Halkbank’s shares are owned by the Government of Turkey.  Halkbank and its officers, agents, and co-conspirators directly and indirectly used money service businesses and front companies in Iran, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and elsewhere to violate and to evade and avoid prohibitions against Iran’s access to the U.S. financial system, restrictions on the use of proceeds of Iranian oil and gas sales, and restrictions on the supply of gold to the Government of Iran and to Iranian entities and persons.  Halkbank knowingly facilitated the scheme, participated in the design of fraudulent transactions intended to deceive U.S. regulators and foreign banks, and lied to U.S. regulators about Halkbank’s involvement.

High-ranking government officials in Iran and Turkey participated in and protected this scheme.  Some officials received bribes worth tens of millions of dollars paid from the proceeds of the scheme so that they would promote the scheme, protect the participants, and help to shield the scheme from the scrutiny of U.S. regulators.

The proceeds of Iran’s sale of oil and gas to Turkey’s national oil company and gas company, among others, were deposited at Halkbank, in accounts in the names of the Central Bank of Iran, the National Iranian Oil Company (“NIOC”), and the National Iranian Gas Company.  During the relevant time period, Halkbank was the sole repository of proceeds from the sale of Iranian oil by NIOC to Turkey.  Because of U.S. sanctions against Iran and the anti-money laundering policies of U.S. banks, it was difficult for Iran to access these funds in order to transfer them back to Iran or to use them for international financial transfers for the benefit of Iranian government agencies and banks.  As of in or about 2012, billions of dollars’ worth of funds had accumulated in NIOC and the Central Bank of Iran’s accounts at Halkbank.

Halkbank participated in several types of illicit transactions for the benefit of Iran that, if discovered, would have exposed the bank to sanctions under U.S. law, including (i) allowing the proceeds of sales of Iranian oil and gas deposited at Halkbank to be used to buy gold for the benefit of the Government of Iran; (ii) allowing the proceeds of sales of Iranian oil and gas deposited at Halkbank to be used to buy gold that was not exported to Iran, in violation of the so-called “bilateral trade” rule; and (iii) facilitating transactions fraudulently designed to appear to be purchases of food and medicine by Iranian customers, in order to appear to fall within the so-called “humanitarian exception” to certain sanctions against the Government of Iran, when in fact no purchases of food or medicine actually occurred.  Through these methods, Halkbank illicitly transferred approximately $20 billion worth of otherwise restricted Iranian funds.

Senior Halkbank officers, acting within the scope of their employment and for the benefit of Halkbank, concealed the true nature of these transactions from officials with the U.S. Department of the Treasury so that Halkbank could supply billions of dollars’ worth of services to the Government of Iran without risking being sanctioned by the United States and losing its ability to hold correspondent accounts with U.S. financial institutions.

The purpose and effect of the scheme in which Halkbank participated was to create a pool of Iranian oil funds in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates held in the names of front companies, which concealed the funds’ Iranian nexus.  From there, the funds were used to make international payments on behalf of the Government of Iran and Iranian banks, including transfers in U.S. dollars that passed through the U.S. financial system in violation of U.S. sanctions laws.

*                *                *

Halkbank is charged with (1) conspiracy to defraud the United States, (2) conspiracy to violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (“IEEPA”), (3) bank fraud, (4) conspiracy to commit bank fraud, (5) money laundering, and (6) conspiracy to commit money laundering.

The Office has previously charged nine individual defendants, including bank employees, the former Turkish Minister of the Economy, and other participants in the scheme.   See S4 15 Cr. 867 (RMB).  On October 26, 2017, Reza Zarrab pled guilty to the seven counts with which he was charged.  On January 3, 2018, a jury convicted former Halkbank deputy general manager Memet Hakkan Atilla of five of the six counts with which he was charged, following a five-week jury trial.   The remaining individual defendants are fugitives.

Mr. Berman praised the outstanding investigative work of the FBI and its New York Field Office, Counterintelligence Division, and the Department of Justice, National Security Division, Counterintelligence and Export Control Section.

This case is being handled by the Office’s Terrorism and International Narcotics Unit and Money Laundering and Transnational Criminal Enterprises Unit.  Assistant United States Attorneys Michael D. Lockard, Sidhardha Kamaraju, David W. Denton Jr., Jonathan Rebold, and Kiersten Fletcher are in charge of the prosecution.

The charges contained in the Indictment are merely accusations, and the defendant is presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty.

USA jets approach Turkish jets in a show of force.  Turkey retreats
(zerohedge)

US Jets & Apache Gunships In “Show Of Force” Against Turkish Forces Who Got “Too Close” To US Troops

A US official has informed Reuters that American forces in Syria on Tuesday carried out a “show of force” after Turkish-backed fighters came close to their position in northeast Syria, amid Erdogan’s ongoing ‘Operation Peace Spring’.

Reuters describes, based on the source:

The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said U.S. military aircraft were flown over the area after troops in northeastern Syria felt the Turkish-backed fighters were too close. The Turkish-backed fighters dispersed after the show of force, the official said.

 

File image of Apache gunship via Pinterest.

The Pentagon did not initially confirm the incident, but it is consistent with last Friday’s dangerous close encounter wherein US special forces were fired upon, or their position ‘bracketed’, by Turkish artillery which targeted in front of and behind their location.

The new incident further reportedly involved American F-15 fighters and AH-64 Apache gunships in the “show of force,” described further as a violation of a “standing agreement” between Washington and Ankara not to threaten US troops.

“The Turkish forces violated a standing agreement with the U.S. to not get close enough to threaten U.S. troops on the ground,” the official said. “U.S. forces responded with a show of force using aircraft to demonstrate the forces were prepared to defend themselves, as well as communication with the Turkish military through formal channels to protest the risk to U.S. forces.” The unnamed official noted that no shots were fired during the incident, given the Turkish-backed forces quickly dispersed.

The Pentagon has confirmed most of its forces have pulled back from contested cities near the border with Turkey, such as Manbij, as the Turkish Army and its ‘rebel’ proxy units advance and simultaneous with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic forces cutting a historic deal with Damascus and the Syrian Army on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Moscow confirmed separately on Tuesday that Russian forces are now on the ground patrolling areas of Northern Syria which were previously occupied by US bases bolstering Kurdish partners which had since 2015 administered the region. Russian military officials said they were moving in to “fill the void left by the withdrawal of U.S. troops”.

This appears in accordance with President Trump’s ‘green light’ for such a move which drastically changes the direction of the war. “Others may want to come in and fight for one side or the other,” the president posted on Twitter on Sunday. “Let them!”

END

Erdogan is one strange dude! He will only talk to Trump

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1039 UP  .0005 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.77 DOWN 0.065 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2827   UP   0.0068  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3210 UP .0027 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE 5Y 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1039 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 12.33 POINTS OR 0.41% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 160.35 POINTS OR 0.61%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.18%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 160.35 POINTS OR 0.61%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.33 POINTS OR 0.41%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.18% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 265.71  POINTS OR 1.20%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1484.50

silver:$17.31-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.74% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.22 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 98.37 UP 8 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.20% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.18%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.25%/UP 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.93 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 68 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.39% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.32% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1079  UP     .0045 or 45 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.68 DOWN .123 OR YEN UP 12  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2865 UP .01057 POUND UP 106  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 15 basis points to 1.3191

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan, CNY 7.0934    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0963  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8900 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.18%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.74 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.23 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.97 DOWN 32  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 43.69  0.61%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 40.32 POINTS OR .32%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 5.16 POINTS 0.09%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 30.60 POINTS or 0.33%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 62.75 POINTS OR 0.28%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 53.57 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 59,56 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    64.07  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.24 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 24 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.39 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  53.31//

 

 

BRENT :  59.32

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.75  down 2 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.23…flat..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1074 ( UP 40   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.75 DOWN .055 (YEN UP 6 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.98 DOWN 30 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2826 UP 67  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8935

 

 

the Russian rouble 64.09   UP 0.22 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 22 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3197 UP 8 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0934  (ONSHORE)

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.1011 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.41%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 22.82 POINTS OR 0.08%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 24.52 POINTS OR 0.30%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.68 CLOSED UP .14

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.002%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Trump Said “Markets Will Go Up Big Today”… They Didn’t!

At 1048ET, President Trump told a room full of reporters that “the market was up big yesterday and its going to be up big again today.”

Fwd to around 24:20:

He was right for about 20 minutes (and we note 3,000 is lost for now and the S&P is making lower highs)…

As the odds of a China trade deal dipped today…

Source: Bloomberg

Chinese stocks were not pretty overnight with small-cap/tech pushed back into the red for the week…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks extended gains from Monday’s dip open as Brexit optimism continued…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks are at 29-month highs relative to UK stocks on Brexit optimism…

Source: Bloomberg

Dow and S&P drifted back down to pre-trade-deal levels once again today, Trannies outperformed…

 

Another opening short-squeeze ignited some momentum but by the time Europe closed that had faded…

Source: Bloomberg

US bank stocks clung to gains but are notably off yesterday’s highs…

Source: Bloomberg

BofA outperformed as Citi leaked lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Momentum is starting to accelerate lower against value again…

Source: Bloomberg

FANG Stocks rallied again, back near one-month highs (ahead of NFLX earnings tonight)…

Source: Bloomberg

The bar has been notably lowered for NFLX tonight…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were largely lower on the day but the long-end underperformed (30Y -0.5bps, 2Y -3.5bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

A modest flattening in the yield curve today (3m10Y -2bps)

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar tumbled to 2-month lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable was higher once again (highest since May 2019, hovering around the lows from the initial referendum puke in 2016)…

Source: Bloomberg

With GBPUSD vol soaring to its highest since the referendum…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were hit relatively hard today…

Source: Bloomberg

With Bitcoin bashed back below $8,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were more mixed today with oil rallying back from yesterday’s losses, Gold up modestly, but silver and copper lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold rallied but was unable to get back to $1500 (note the big moves happened around the time of the London Fixing)…

Source: Bloomberg

Choppy day in oil markets, and despite late-day weakness, ended higher ahead of the API data tonight…

Source: Bloomberg

Copper’s recent underperformance against gold suggests Treasury yields should be notably lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, with the S&P 500 Index’s earnings-per-share growth barely budging, Bloomberg’s Romaine Bostick and Sophie Caronello note that a new high for the equity benchmark may prove elusive.

Source: Bloomberg

While the gauge’s price-to-earnings ratio stands at about 19.7 on a trailing 12-month basis, Bloomberg Intelligence calculations forecast share-weighted, third-quarter earnings growth to be down about 3.8% from the year-ago period. Against a backdrop of slowing global economic growth and macro risks, including Sino-American trade and Brexit, this season’s reports along with U.S. consumer spending will continue to be closely monitored.

And all is definitely not well in liquidity land as today’s overnight repo was dramatically oversubscribed (and The Fed’s first POMO was 4x oversubscribed)

“probably nothing!”

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

This is something that Lee Adler predicted: we have just run out of cash, period….

Today the repo markets have locked up again as the Fed TOMO/ operation was oversubscribed.  But worse, we witnessed the collateral rate rise to 2.27%.  Folks, we are in crisis as cash is scarce due to the voracious appetite of the US government with their monstrous budgetary deficit of 1 trillion dollars

(zerohedge)

Something Snaps: Repo Locking Up Again As Overnight Fed Operation Oversubscribed, Repo Rate Jumps

First it was supposed to be just a mid-month tax payment issue coupled with an accelerated cash rebuild by the US Treasury. Then, it was supposed to be just quarter-end pressure. Then, once the Fed rolled out QE4 while keeping both its overnight and term repo operations, the mid-September repo rate fireworks which sent the overnight G/C repo rate as high as 10% was supposed to go away for good as Powell admitted the level of reserves was too low and the Fed launched a $60BN/month Bill POMO to boost the Fed’s balance sheet.

Bottom line: the ongoing repo market pressure – which indicated that one or more banks were severely liquidity constrained – was supposed to be a non-event.

Alas, as of this morning when the Fed’s latest repo operation was once again oversubscribed, it appears that the repo turmoil is not only not going away, but is in fact (to paraphrase Joe Biden) getting worse, because even with both term and overnight repos in play and with the market now expecting the Fed to start injecting copious liquidity tomorrow with the first Bill POMO, banks are still cash starved.

To wit: in its latest overnight operation, the Fed indicated that $80.35BN in collateral ($74.7BN in TSYs, $5.65BN in MBS) had been submitted into an operation that maxed out at $75BN, with a weighted average rate on both TSY and MBS rising to 1.823% and 1.828% respectively.

While it was clear that the repo market was tightening in the past week, with each incremental overnight repo operation rising, today was the first oversubscribed repo operation since September 25, and follows yesterday’s $67.6BN repo and $20.1BN term repo.

But the clearest sign that the repo market is freezing up again came from the overnight general collateral rate itself, which after posting in the 1.80%-1.90% range for much of the past two weeks, spiked as high as 2.275% overnight and was last seen at 2.15%, well above the fed funds upper range…

… while today’s Effective Fed Funds rate also jumped from a “normal” level of 1.82% to 1.90%, the clearest indication yet that despite the bevy of actions undertaken by the Fed to unclog the repo market in the past month, it has so far failed even if it managed to quietly implement QE4 under the guise of “fixing” the repo market… something it has clearly failed to do.

end

QE4 officially begins with a huge 4 x oversubscribed POMO..WE HAVE A MASSIVE LIQUIDITY PROBLEM AS HUGE AMTS OF CASH DEMANDED

(zerohedge)

QE4 Officially Begins: Fed’s First T-Bill Purchase Is 4x Oversubscribed Amid Massive Liquidity Demand

QE4 has officially arrived.

As previewed yesterday, moments ago the Fed concluded the first POMO – as in Permanent Open Market Operation, not to be confused with Temporary – from previously announced T-Bill purchases ($60 billion per month, $7.5 billion per operation), and what it showed is a confirmation of message sent by today’s repo operation: there is an unprecedented demand for liquidity.

Specifically, the Fed purchase $7.501 billion in Treasury Bills out of $32.569 billion in T-Bills submitted. In other words, the operation was 4.3x oversubscribed, and when combined with the oversubscribed repo operation announced earlier today, confirms that there is a dramatic need for liquidity among the Primary Dealer community.

Separately, as previewed yesterday, the Fed did not purchase securities with less than 4 weeks to maturity or cash  management bills, and sure enough, the “nearest” maturity purchased today was Bills maturing on Nov 26, for some $20 million. The most aggressive purchases were for CUSIPs TB5 and TN9, for the amount $3.37BN and $1.465BN, respectively, and which mature on Jan 16, 2020 and Oct 8, 2020. The sub-1 month Bills were all excluded from today’s operation.

And with that, QE 4, pardon, “Not A QE” has begun, and will continue “at least into the second quarter” of 2020, by which point the Fed will have purchased over $300 billion in Bills, and will at some point find itself compelled to shift to buying short-maturity coupons as well as the “Not A QE” gradually morphs into a full-blown QE.

end

Perhaps, this is one of the more important data releases:  retail sales as this is 70% of USA GDP. It unexpectedly tumbled in September

(zerohedge)

US Consumer Stumbles As Retail Sales Unexpectedly Tumbles In September

After a mixed picture in August (core retail sales disappointed modestly, headline beat), expectations were just as mixed for September but September retail sales drastically disappointed:

The value of overall sales fell 0.3% in September from the prior month after an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in August…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Sales in the closely watched “control group” subset – which some analysts view as a more reliable gauge of underlying consumer demand – were little changed, missing projections for a 0.3% increase. The measure excludes food services, car dealers, building-materials stores and gasoline stations.

Where business increased…

  • Furniture and Home Furnishings: 0.6%
  • Health and Personal Care: 0.6%
  • Clothing and Accessory stores: 1.3%
  • Miscellaneous Store Retailers: 0.5%
  • Food service and Drinking places: 0.2%

Where business slowed…   

  • Motor vehicles and part retailers: -0.9%
  • Building Materials and Garden Equipment: -1.0%
  • Gasoline Stations -0.7%
  • Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical and Book stores: -0.1%
  • General Merchandise Stores: -0.3%
  • Nonstore retailers: -0.3%

Source: Bloomberg

Non-store retailers saw a shocking decline of 0.3% MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

And the antithesis of that, Department Stores continue their string of weakness (only had a positive YoY print just twice in the past 8 years).

On a YoY basis, while growth is still strong, retail sales growth slowed notably in September…

Source: Bloomberg

The surprise drop in retail sales is the first decline since February and may indicate cracks are forming in the consumer spending that’s propped up economic growth in recent months (after household consumption grew in the April-June period at the fastest pace since 2014).

How long before Trump demands more rate cuts?

end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Trump warns that the markets will crash if a Democrat |clown” becomes President.  He sounds like me.  Actually the markets will crash whether we Trump or a Democrat at the helm

(zerohedge)

 

Trump Warns: “Our Record Economy Will Crash Like 1929” If A Democrat “Clown” Becomes President

President Trump’s 2020 campaign pitch to the American people is simple: Do you enjoy the low unemployment rate and ‘booming’ (even if rate cuts and other artificial stimulus have helped prop it up) economy Trump has created? Then don’t vote for his Democratic rival next November.

It’s a message we’ve heard from Trump many times before, including during the runup to the midterms, where Trump warned that stocks would crash if Democrats took back the House (reminder: They did). Democrats are bad for the market. And it’s a topic that journalists have been looking into in recent weeks.

Would an Elizabeth Warren presidency crash the economy? Well, she’s already preparing to lay the blame at the feet of the ‘business cycle’ – whatever that is.

Trump started by reminding voters that Republicans are still popular, especially with their base, which is thrilled with the Trump agenda.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

95% Approval Rating in the Republican Party. Thank you! Just won two Congressional Seats in North Carolina, & a Governors runoff in Louisiana, which Republicans should now win! Because of Impeachment Fraud, we will easily take back the House, add in the Senate, & again win Pres!

Then Trump warned that the “record” economy that he built (a “record” economy that needs lower interest rates and “Not QE 4”) would be ruined if he’s not reelected in 2020. The “crash” would be as bad as 1929, Trump said, if any of these “clowns” become president.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Our record Economy would CRASH, just like in 1929, if any of those clowns became President!

He then pivoted, complaining that Republicans “have been totally deprived of their rights in this impeachment Witch Hunt” as more current and former members of his administration are brought in to testify before Congress.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Republicans are totally deprived of their rights in this Impeachment Witch Hunt. No lawyers, no questions, no transparency! The good news is that the Radical Left Dems have No Case. It is all based on their Fraud and Fabrication!

But the main point remains: Investors should be building up those hedges if they think a Warren presidency is even a remote possibility.

END

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Pelosi punts on official impeachment as she does not have the votes.  This is nothing but a show for the upcoming election

(zerohedge)

Pelosi Punts On Official Impeachment Vote, Robbing GOP Of Subpoena Power

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced on Tuesday that there would be no vote to launch formal impeachment proceedings against President Trump for the time being.

There’s no requirement that we have a vote, and so at this time we will not be having a vote,” Pelosi said.

“We’re not here to call bluffs — we’re here to find the truth, to uphold the Constitution of the United States. This is not a game for us. This is deadly serious,” said Pelosi after discussing with the House Democratic caucus.

A formal vote would allow Republicans to subpoena their own documents and witnesses, something the minority party was allowed in both the Nixon and Clinton impeachment inquiry resolutions – which is why the Trump administration won’t cooperate until a vote is held.

Pelosi has called pressure to do so a “Republican talking point.

 

“There is no requirement under the Constitution, House Rules or House precedent that the House has to take a vote before proceeding with an impeachment inquiry,” Pelosi spokeswoman Ashley Etienne told RealClearPolitics in a statement two weeks ago. “The Committees of the House now have robust authority under the House’s existing rules to conduct investigations for all matters within their jurisdiction, including impeachment investigations. For several decades, impeachment investigations have frequently been conducted without a full vote,” she added.

END

What a riot: both accuse the other of having a “meltdown” on the Syrian withdrawal

(zerohedge)

Pelosi Storms Out Of Oval Office After Trump “Meltdown”

In a press conference Wednesday afternoon, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi accused President Trump of having a “meltdown” during a meeting with Congressional Democratic leaders after a contingent of Republicans voted with Democrats in the House to pass a motion condemning the withdrawal from Syria.

This Week

@ThisWeekABC

“We just came from the most unsatisfactory meeting at the White House,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi says after meeting with Trump to voice concerns over Syria.

“He just couldn’t handle it so he kind of engaged in a meltdown” https://abcn.ws/2VSN7KH 

Embedded video

“I think that vote – the size of the vote, more than 2-1 of the Republicans voted to oppose what the president did – probably got to the president. Because he was shaken up by it,” Pelosi said

 

“And that’s why we couldn’t continue in the meeting because he was just not relating to the reality of it.”

She later said Trump had a “meltdown.”

Trump called Pelosi a ‘third-rate politician’ during Syria meeting, top Democrats said.

Of course, GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy had a different view of things…

CSPAN

@cspan

.@GOPLeader on @SpeakerPelosi at White House: “She storms out of another meeting, trying to make it unproductive.”

Embedded video

All of this echoes the May meeting between Pelosi, Schumer and Trump in the Oval Office, where Dems similarly stormed out of a meeting about infrastructure after Trump said he wouldn’t work with them unless they dropped all of the investigations against him.

We look forward to Trump’s version of things.

END

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

@Techno_FogL Flynn lawyer @SidneyPowell1 is demanding the DOJ “produce evidence that has only recently come into [the DOJ’s] possession” The phones used by Joseph Mifsud.  https://t.co/YcxSK38Clg

    Filing on the newly discovered evidence: The 2 phones were used by Mifsud as part of the efforts by western intelligence against him “likely as early as 2014 to arrange…’connections’ with certain Russians”

@SidneyPowell1: Certain persons in the government only recently came into possession of these phones that had been given to Mifsud to use. Of course, pretty sure bad actors knew of them previously–certainly the operation that gave them to him!

@tracybeanz: There is no way the DOJ would have these phones if Mifsud was a Russian agent as Mueller told us. This is huge.

@GeorgePapa19: BOTH Mifsud and Halper were tasked with spying on Flynn and myself. This is a major breakthrough! I understand why Mifsud went into hiding fearing for his life. The FBI was using him and providing him with phones to spy on me and Flynn with and they later go on and burn him as a “Russian agent” in an attempt to overthrow the President. This is the biggest news of the year!

Latest Dem Impeachment ‘Witness’ Fiona Hill WAS NOT EVEN WORKING IN WHITE HOUSE at Time of Trump Call – But was Very Upset with Call – Hill resigned before the call. So it’s not clear why they needed to speak with her for 11 hours. Hill had ZERO knowledge of the call, and only heard rumors. Democrats don’t care. They want to impeach Trump on rumors…

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/10/revealed-latest-dems-impeachment-witness-fiona-hill-was-not-even-working-in-white-house-at-time-of-trump-call-another-deep-state-shill-video/

@paulsperry_: In new book “Crime in Progress,” set for release next month, Spygate archvillain Glenn Simpson [Fusion GPS co-CEO] reveals that he was first hired to investigate Trump in “the fall of 2015” and that memos from his now-discredited Steele dossier made their way directly “to President Obama”

@HowleyReporter: Ahead of the IG report, important to remember that Fusion GPS anti-Trump effort started with John McCain and the Bill Kristol front group “Free Beacon,” where management just turned over. Hillary just stole Republican ideas

Yesterday, Twitter teemed with reports that Pelosi would poll Dems to see if there were enough votes for a formal impeachment inquiry.  Last night, Pelosi said there will be NO formal floor vote.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/15/house-democrats-will-not-hold-a-vote-authorizing-impeachment-probe-which-white-house-sought.html

@seanmdav: If impeachment were as popular as cooked media polls suggest, Pelosi would be rushing to put her vulnerable Trump-district Democrats on record. That she is so obviously desperate to avoid a recorded vote is a sign that impeachment is a political loser.

Attorneys have opined that no formal impeachment, no valid subpoenas – and Dems fear that courts would squash subpoenas and end the political charade.

@nytimes: Vice President Mike Pence refused to turn over documents related to the House impeachment inquiry against President Trump, defying a subpoena   https://t.co/Vi8ZM1Fq7S

@ABC: Rudy Giuliani tells @ABC News he is not complying with congressional subpoena.  “If they enforce it, then we will see what happens,” he says.

Bolton Objected to Ukraine Pressure Campaign, Calling Giuliani ‘a Hand Grenade’

Bolton told Hill to alert White House lawyers about the pressure campaign officials were making on Ukraine to conduct an investigation into Biden… Hill said Bolton told her to contact the chief lawyer for the National Security Council about an effort by Sondland, Giuliani and Mulvaney…

https://thehill.com/policy/international/europe/465790-bolton-told-ex-trump-aide-to-call-white-house-lawyers-about

@ByronYork: Well look at this. Dems impose tight secrecy on impeachment interviews. Can’t let witnesses coordinate their stories! And yet, a detailed version of damaging parts of Fiona Hill testimony appears in NYT. Meanwhile, Republicans obey secrecy rules

Bolton and Rudy prove that once again, that Trump has made horrendous hiring decisions.

OAN’s @ChloeSalsameda: Giuliani’s lawyers inform House Dems Giuliani will not comply with their subpoena.  “This appears to be an unconstitutional, baseless, and illegitimate ‘impeachment inquiry.’”

Rudy Giuliani Responds to Latest Leaks that mention John Bolton: “I’m Disappointed in John. It’s Almost Like Projection”

@dbongino: It’s a shame, & it’s dangerous, but President Trump will have to conduct every meeting from this point on as if spies were in the room with him given the sheer number of unprincipled deep-state lunatics committed to overrunning the Republic and destroying the democratic process.

If Bloomberg enters the presidential race, should he be investigated for campaign finance violations because his legion of anti-Trump writers has posted negative stories on Trump for three years?  This can be construed as a ‘benefit’.

New Poll on Impeachment Reveals the One Thing Democrats Feared Most

A focus group, which was convened by Axios and Engagious, found that 9 out of 11 swing voters who took part in Ohio said impeachment is a distraction from the issues they care most about, such as unemployment, border security, bringing troops home, and health care.  Axios reported that swing voters are “expressing a range of unease about impeaching President Trump.”…

    Axios explained, “If such sentiments last and play out on a larger scale across pivotal states, it spells trouble for Democrats unless they can reframe what they’re trying to accomplish.”…

https://trendingpolitics.com/new-poll-on-impeachment-reveals-the-one-thing-democrats-feared-most/

@1776Stonewall: Longtime Democrat leader, Harry Reid, says “I used to think that Donald Trump was not too smart. I certainly don’t think that anymore

Democrats Are Making Girls’ Sports A 2020 Campaign Issue. Estab Media Aren’t Telling You

2020 Democratic candidates’ support for the Equality Act has made girls’ sports a 2020 campaign issue.

The bill would force public schools to let male athletes who identify as transgender into girls’ sports…

https://dailycaller.com/2019/10/14/democrats-girls-sports-2020-campaign/

At the Democrat Presidential Candidate Debate hosted by CNN and the NYT last night, the Dems spent the first portion excoriating Trump and advocating impeachment.  Then, most of the candidates went after Warren because she’s now the front runner.  They assume Biden is finished.

@ABC: Sen. Elizabeth Warren has so far dominated the #DemDebate in terms of speaking time—largely because she’s fielded harsh criticism from fellow candidates.

@nytimes: Elizabeth Warren defends her proposed wealth tax, saying top billionaires make their money off accumulated wealth: “Taxing income is not going to get you where you need to be the way taxing wealth does. The rich are not like you and me.”   https://nyti.ms/2MI8cDz

Well that is all for today

I will see you THURSDAY night.

 

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