OCT 17/GOLD UP $4.00 TO $1494.50//SILVERUP 17 CENTS TO $17.59//ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMP AT THE GOLD AS BANKERS ARE DESPERATE TO FIND PHYSICAL GOLD//SUPPOSEDLY WE HAVE A BREXIT DEAL..LET US SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT//ANOTHER HUGE POMO AS LIQUIDITY DRIES UP//COLLATERAL RATE REMAINS ELEVATED AT 2.02% AND THIS IS HIGHER THAN THE FED’S RATE//

GOLD:$1494.50 UP $4.00(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

Silver:$17.59 UP 17 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1492.00

 

silver:  $17.55

 

COMEX DATA

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING  101/149

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,488.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/16/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 10/18/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 149
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 35
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
661 C JP MORGAN 101
737 C ADVANTAGE 7
905 C ADM 3
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 149 149
MONTH TO DATE: 10,943

___________________________________________________________________________________

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT: 149 NOTICE(S) FOR 14900 OZ (0.4634 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  10,943 NOTICES FOR 1,094,300 OZ  (34.037 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR OCT

 

 

48 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 240,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1060 for 5,300,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 8029 UP 49 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8056 UP 68

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 712 CONTRACTS FROM 210,916 DOWN TO 210,204 DESPITE THE 4 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR SEPT 0,; DEC  2230 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  2230 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2230 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2230 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 11.15 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 4 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

6.645     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

YESTERDAY, A MINOR ATTEMPT BY THE BANKERS TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL AT THE SILVER COMEX….  OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR//BANKERS AGAIN USED HUGE COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN THEIR UNSUCCESSFUL ENDEAVOUR TO WHACK SILVER’S PRICE (4 CENTS HIGHER).  OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED 1518 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF OCT:

15,343 CONTRACTS (FOR 13 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 15,343 CONTRACTS) OR 76.72 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1180 CONTRACTS OR 5.900 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  76.72 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 10.96% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1716.45   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 712, DESPITE THE 4 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2230 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED: 1518 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 2230 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 712  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 4 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.42 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.051 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 151% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 48 NOTICE(S) FOR 240,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 6.645 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 3502 CONTRACTS, TO 610,589 ACCOMPANYING THE  $10.25 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// /

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 6082 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  6082 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 610,889,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9584 CONTRACTS: 3502 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 6082 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 9584 CONTRACTS OR 958400 OZ OR 29.81 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $10.25 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 29.81  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE .THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT : 85,093 CONTRACTS OR 8,509,300 oz OR 264.67 TONNES (13 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 6545 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 264.67 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 264.67/3550 x 100% TONNES =7.45% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4928.58  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3502 WITH THE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($10.25)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6082 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6082 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 9937 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6082 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 3502 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 29.81 TONNES). ..AND THIS STRONG INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $10.25 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  149 notice(s) filed upon for 14,900 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..

A WITHDRAWAL (PAPER) OF 1.47 TONNES AND THIS WILL PROBABLY BE USED IN A RAID TOMORROW

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.19  TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: 

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.87 MILLION OZ OF SILVER AND NOW WE SHOULD EXPECT A RAID

TOMORROW

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.919 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 712 CONTRACTS from 210,916 DOWN TO 210,204 AND FURTHER FROM A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR OCT. 0; FOR DEC  2230  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2230 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 657  CONTRACTS TO THE 2230 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 1573 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7.865 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 6.645 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 4 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2230 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.35 POINTS OR 0.05%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 184.21 POINTS OR 0.69%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 21.06 POINTS OR 0.09%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .76%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0784 /Oil UP TO 53.08 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.07 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0784 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0837 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)China/USA

The arrest of those two American teachers I reported on is still in effect and that has raised trade tensions between the two countries

(zerohedge)

ii)China seems to be “holding all the cards” as they secretly order NBA Commissioner to fire Houston Rockets manager over his support of protesters re: Hong Kong.

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

The pound fades as the DUP will not support BoJO;s deal

(zerohedge)

ii)Supposedly a Brexit deal has been reached

(Associated Press)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Syria

Our resident non conformist Brandon Smith explains his take on the Syrian situation

a must read…

(Brandon Smith)

ii)TURKEY/USA/SYRIA

USA strikes its own abandoned ammo storage so Turkey could not use it
(zerohedge)

iii)Turkey/USAPence gets an icy reception meeting Erdogan

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

Michael Every on the changing IMF policy and on the new Brexit proposal which still has Northern Ireland upset. They will still be on Eu regulations despite England leaving.

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

a)This is a must read…Ambrose Evans Pritchard fears that we are going to have a crash far worse than in 2008-2009

(courtesy Ambrose Evans Pritchard/GATA)

b)Chris Marcus discusses POMO with Dave Kranzler

(courtesy Arcadia Economics/Chris Marcus/Dave kranzler)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

a)Again we have a huge liquidity problem as described by Lee Adler.  Today a monstrous 104 billion dollars of overnight repo.  But worse than that: the collateral rate is at 2.02% much higher than the Fed rate.  The problem: we have a huge shortage of dollars

(zerohedge)

b)Hard data industrial production shrinks year over year for the first time since the Trump election

(zerohedge)

c)Both housing starts and permits plunge in September(zerohedge)

d)Soft data, Philly Fed mfg index falls again in October.

(Philly Fed/Market Watch)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

My goodness, I left just in time: San Francisco is shaken by dozens of earthquakes with the first one measuring 4.7 on the Richter scale.

(Michael Snyder)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)A must read..

the truth behind Bolton and Fiona Hill and the deep state

(Tom Luongo)

b)this is something that we realized long ago: CNN’s decay

(zerohedge)

c)It looks like we are going to get impeachment of Trump and that will set up a big spectacle in the Senate.  The Republicans will then call witnesses including Strzok, Page, Biden and quite possibly Obama.

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 3502 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 610,889 ACCOMPANYING THE GAIN OF $10.25 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6082 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR OCT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 6082   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6082 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 9584 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6082 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 3855 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE AS IT ROSE BY $10.25. HOWEVER, JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY UNSUSPECTING LONGS. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  9584 CONTRACTS OR 958,400 OZ OR 29.84 TONNES.

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER.  This month is generally the poorest delivery month of the year as must players prefer to go straight to the big active delivery month of December. Strangely October will turn out to be a huge delivery month. Today we have 989 contracts still standing for a GAIN of 253 contracts. Yesterday we had 4 notices served upon so we have another whopper of a gain of 257 contracts or an additional 25,700 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. We again have queue jumping by the bankers/official sector in their attempt to find physical metal on this side of the pond.

 

The next active delivery month after October is the non active contract month of November. Here we saw a GAIN of 69 contracts and thus the OI INCREASED to 1216.  The very big December contract month saw its oi FALL by 509 contracts DOWN to 466,453.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 149 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  14900 OZ. (0.4634 TONNES)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 712 CONTRACTS FROM 210,916 DOWN TO 210,204 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S SMALL  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A 4 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER.  HERE WE HAVE 317 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A GAIN OF 28 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 19 CONTACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 47 CONTRACTS OR 235,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH.  THE ALSO REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

AFTER OCTOBER WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND HERE  WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 29 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 477. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI FALLS BY 827 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 156,614.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 48 notice(s) filed for 240,000, OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 291,625  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  392,376  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

OCT 17/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 00 oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
149 notice(s)
 14900 OZ
(0.4634 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
840 contracts
(84000 oz)
2.612 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
10,943 notices
1094,300 OZ
34.037 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entry

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: nil  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/  today: zero amount  arrived 

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

i)Out of Brinks:  642.96 oz

20 kilobars

 

total gold withdrawals; 642.96  oz

 

 

FOR THE OCT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 149 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 101 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,943) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT. (989 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (149 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,178300 OZ OR 36.65 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of OCT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (10943 x 100 oz)  + (989)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (149 x 100 oz )which equals 1,178,300 oz standing OR 36.65 TONNES in this  active delivery month of OCT.

We gained a strong 287 contracts OR 28,700 ADDITIONAL OZ which queue jumped as our bankers //official sector were searching for badly needed physical on this side of the pond. There is no doubt that these guys need to put out fires springing up everywhere!!

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 3 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

AND NOW……………………………………………………………………………     OCT. 36.65 TONNES

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT IN SEPT 2 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.6 TONNES.

IF WE ADD THE THREE DELIVERY MONTHS: 69.255

TONNES- 2.60 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 66.655 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 35.78 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1,150,634.308 oz or  35.789 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,186,485.034 oz 254.63 tonnes

IN THE LAST 36 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
OCT 17 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 601,850.150 oz
Brinks
HSBC

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
597,713.700 oz
jpmorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)
48
CONTRACT(S)
(240,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
269 contracts
 1,345,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1060 contracts

5,300,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  597,713.700  oz

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 158.357 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.43% of all official comex silver. (158.357 million/314.0 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 597,713.700  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of Brinks: 597,713.700 oz and this landed into the crook JPMorgan

ii) Out of HSBC: 4136.45 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 601,850.150  oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

i) Out of Delaware: 211,322.032 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of Delaware and this landed into the dealer account ofDelaware

 

total dealer silver:  81.635 million

total dealer + customer silver:  314.030 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the OCT 2019. contract month is represented by 48 contract(s) FOR 260,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1060 x 5,000 oz = 5,300,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (317) and the number of notices served upon today 48 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 1060 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (317)- number of notices served upon today (48) x 5000 oz equals 6,645,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month. 

WE GAINED 47 contracts or an additional 235,000 oz of silver will stand at the comex as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards. For the past several weeks we have been witnessing queue jumping in both gold and silver.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 48 notice(s) filed for 240,000 OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  59,317 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 84,228 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 84,228 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 421 million  OZ 60.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.57% ((OCT 17/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.09% to NAV (OCT 17/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.57%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.95 TRADING 14.43///DISCOUNT 3.49

 

 

 

 

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.19 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP $10.25 TODAY//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.66 TONNES

OCT 15//WITH GOLD DOWN$13.25 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 14/2019: WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 TODAY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.00 TODAY, A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921,71 TONNES

OCT.9//WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT 8\WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

0CT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN 7 DOLLARS//A BIG CHANGE //A DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES//

INVENTORY RISES TO 923.76 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $15.25 A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 920.83 TONNES

SEPT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $32.50: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.88 TONNES

SEPT 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 26//WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90 A HUGE  PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  16.42 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

 

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.65 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN OUT OF THIS WORLD DEPOSIT OF 14.37 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 10.65 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 ON THE DAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.06 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 16/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.51 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A BIG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

SEPT 12//WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A HUGE 7.33 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.42 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 6.15 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.75 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.80 TODAY: A BIG ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 5.86 OF PAPER GOLD TONNES PROBABLY ADDED BEFORE THE RAID/EXPECT A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL TOMORROW:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.90 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  11.73 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT ….890.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $25.60 TODAY: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.31 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.36 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.65: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.09 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.41 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 27//WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 13.49 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.32 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP 0.25 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.99 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.83 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $28.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.84 TONNES

 

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OCT 17/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 918.19 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 683 TRADING DAYS: 31.46 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 583 TRADING DAYS: A NET 135.68 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

 

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 17./WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.87 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.919 MILLION OZ//

OCT 16/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ//

OCT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.15 MILLION OZ//. INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ.

OCT 14/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ//

OCT 10/2016//WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.443 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 166,000 OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 1.2019 //WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.87 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.656 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25.//WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.338 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23.2019/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.899 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.778 MILLION PAPER OZ OF SILVER///INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.401 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A MAMMOTH CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.425 MILLION PAPER OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.179 MILLION OZ../

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 60 CENTS TODAY: A RATHER TIMID CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 842,000 PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 386.604 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER WHACKED 68 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 708,000 OZ FROM SLV’S INVENTORY:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 387.446 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.714 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 388.154 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.59 MILLION OZ INTO SLV INVENTORY///INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.440 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.850 MILLION OZ//

 

OCT 17/2019:

 

Inventory 380.919 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.96/ and libor 6 month duration 1.98

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .02

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.91%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.99

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.08

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Falls 0.25% After Johnson Says Brexit Agreed; Markets Remains Skeptical of the ‘Deal’

◆ Gold has fallen in pounds, euros and dollars after breaking news suggesting a Brexit deal has been reached

◆ The pound and the euro rose with the pound gaining 0.52% against the dollar

◆ The Australian and New Zealand dollar saw larger gains of 1% and 0.7% respectively which suggests foreign exchange markets remain skeptical of the deal

◆ Relief and hope of an actual deal saw the pound rise to stand above $1.29 for the first time since May on the reports

◆ European and UK stocks have seen a slight bounce in a relief rally, the FTSE gained 0.65%, the EuroStoxx 50 was up 0.6% and the DAX rose 0.7%

◆ The UK and EU negotiators have been working on the legal text of a deal and appear to have reached agreement, but it will still need the approval of both the UK and European parliaments and the DUP are saying they will not support it

NEWS and COMMENTARY

New Brexit deal agreed, says Boris Johnson

Gold steady ahead of Brexit talks; weak U.S. data lends support

IMF fears the world’s financial system is even more destructive than in 2008

Turkish president Erdogan ‘threw Trump’s Syria letter in bin’

‘Addiction’ to cheap money will do ‘tremendous damage’ to the global economy

Dollar pinned near one-month lows on weak data; pound volatile

Germany will make ties with China a priority during EU presidency: Merkel

Sterling sees wild swings as Brexit talks enter final hours

Fed’s Evans says may struggle with reserves “longer than we would like”

Yes, Fed is doing QE again, only bigger – Cashin

Listen or Watch Latest GoldnomicsPodcast Here

Gold Prices (LBMA – USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)

16-Oct-19 1482.55 1485.10, 1166.32 1155.85 & 1344.52 1343.27
15-Oct-19 1494.75 1487.80, 1183.69 1178.34 & 1357.08 1353.30
14-Oct-19 1494.20 1490.60, 1188.79 1182.94 & 1354.04 1352.12
11-Oct-19 1498.35 1479.15, 1197.93 1166.01 & 1359.90 1338.33
10-Oct-19 1508.20 1494.80, 1232.35 1222.75 & 1368.69 1356.38
09-Oct-19 1503.40 1507.25, 1228.43 1232.93 & 1369.00 1372.65
08-Oct-19 1500.00 1505.85, 1225.50 1233.14 & 1365.30 1372.28
07-Oct-19 1502.15 1501.25, 1221.40 1218.11 & 1369.36 1365.54
04-Oct-19 1509.50 1499.15, 1223.75 1220.01 & 1374.70 1366.78

SIGN UP FOR OUR AWARD WINNING MARKET UPDATES HERE

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

This is a must read…Ambrose Evans Pritchard fears that we are going to have a crash far worse than in 2008-2009

(courtesy Ambrose Evans Pritchard/GATA)

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: IMF fears the world’s financial system is even more destructive than in 2008

 Section: 

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Wednesday, October 16, 2019

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/10/16/imf-fears-worlds-financi…

The International Monetary Fund has presented us with a Gothic horror show. The world’s financial system is more stretched, unstable, and dangerous than it was on the eve of the Lehman crisis.

Quantitative easing, zero interest rates, and financial repression across the board have pushed investors — and in the case of pension funds or life insurers, actually forced them — into taking on ever more risk. We have created a monster.

There are “amplification” feedback loops and chain reactions all over the place. Banks may be safer — though not in Europe or China — but excesses have migrated to a new nexus of shadow lenders. Woe betide us if this tangle of hidden leverage is soon put to the test.

That broadly is the message of the International Monetary Fund’s Global Financial Stability Report, always a thriller but this time almost biblical. “Policymakers urgently need to take action to tackle financial vulnerabilities,” said the fund’s directors piously. It is a bit late for that, my friends.

Even a moderate shock would cause company “debt-at-risk” — that is, where the debtors do not earn enough to cover interest payments — to spiral up to $19 trillion. This is a staggering 40 percent of corporate liabilities.

The tally includes a future cascade of “fallen angels” now perched at BBBratings just above junk. Such firms will be squeezed mercilessly by tumbling earnings and soaring risk spreads in a downturn.

“In France and Spain, debt-at-risk is approaching the levels seen during previous crises, while in China, the United Kingdom, and the United States, it exceeds these levels. This is worrisome given that the shock is calibrated to be only about half what it was during the global financial crisis,” the report said.

Late-cycle reflexes are again on display. The debt is “increasingly used for financial risk-taking — to fund corporate payouts to investors, as well as mergers and acquisitions. Global credit is flowing to riskier borrowers.”

Donald Trump’s tax reform has pushed M&A volumes in the United States to record levels. We knew that. It is the detail that is revealing. The “markups on intangibles” for debt-funded takeovers have jumped, “signaling increased bets on future gains despite a weakening outlook” — which means they are pocketing fictitious returns, and the bankers are winking obligingly to secure their fee.

This year “highly leveraged deals” made up almost 60 percent of U.S. buyouts, comfortably surpassing the pre-Lehman peak. Firms are using “add-backs” based on purported M&A synergies (usually exaggerated or non-existent) to boost how much they can borrow.

On The Street, the use of debt for share buybacks or dividends is called “using your balance sheet efficiently.” I remember the term well from the mass delusion phase of 2008. Just wait until the funding markets jam shut.

Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and the Marxisant Piketty activists of the Democratic primaries wish to shut the U.S. capitalist casino once and for all. They will have their excuse when these chickens come home to roost.

In Europe almost all leveraged loans are now being issued without covenant protection. The debt to earnings (EBITDA) ratio has vaulted to a record 5:8. Is the European Central Bank asleep or actively promoting this?

The IMF’s directors call for “urgent” action to stop these excesses but in the same breath suggest or admit that the cause of leverage fever is the easy money regime of the authorities themselves — that is to say the central banks and their political masters who refuse, understandably, to permit debt liquidation and to allow Schumpeter’s creative destruction to run its course in downturns.

We are all to blame (with notable exceptions). Few of us have the stomach for the cleansing trauma of epic defaults and mass layoffs. I have supported central bank largesse since the Lehman crisis, with a clothes peg on my nose, though with hindsight I would rather it had been used for targeted public investment rather than stoking asset bubbles.

But the longer this goes on, the greater the debt trap, and the harder it is to break free. The idea that tougher “macro-pru” regulations can suppress the effects of a massively distorted incentive structure is surely wishful thinking. It is an empty IMF piety.

As the report states, monetary perma-stimulus is wreaking havoc on the $10.5 trillion bond fund industry and forcing insurers, fixed income funds, and pension funds to join the hunt for yield. “It is driving investors into riskier and less liquid assets.”

Funds are having to go out further on the maturity curve to eke out a few miserable pennies. But this is still not enough. The defined benefits funds in the U.S., U.K., and Holland are going into real estate or private equity ventures by necessity. These have “embedded leverage” and long lockup times. They are being forced into “greater illiquidity risk.”

So what can detonate these ticking time-bombs? The Bank of England’s Mark Carney says funds — like the now-defunct Woodford entities — that promise investors the right of instant withdrawal while parking the money in illiquid assets are “built on a lie.” They have become a systemic risk.

Pension funds and insurers that used to act as a stabilizing buffer in financial crises are now part of the problem and might next time join the panic rush for narrow exits. The IMF says this could amplify any shock very quickly and this in turn would lead to a full-blown credit crunch.

What is different about the current cycle is that every region is flashing warnings in one way or another. That was not the case in 2008. Asia and the commodity “BRICS” states were then in the middle of a credit-driven boom. They were able to bulldoze their way through the storm and act as a global shock-absorber.

This time emerging markets are in the swamp too. Their median ratio of external debt to exports has risen from 100 to 160 percent over the last decade, rising to 300 percent in some cases. The fund says this leaves them exposed to a rollover crisis if the global liquidity tap is ever turned off — and in my view the Fed came close to doing this over recent months by over-tightening. A number of state-owned behemoths will need a sovereign bailout.

China is in a class of its own. The authorities had to rescue Baoshang Bank in May. Depositors faced “haircuts” for the first time, which came as a nasty surprise. This led to an investor panic over nine other regional banks that had failed to publish their accounts. The interbank funding markets seized up. Hengfeng and Jinzhou banks then required bailouts as well.

The banks had been relying on wholesale capital markets for short-term funding (like Northern Rock and Lehman) to buy illiquid assets. What has come to light is the Chinese doom-loop of banks and investment vehicles buying each other’s debt.

The Baoshang failure is a big reason why China’s monetary stimulus has gained so little traction this year. A state-run banking system can (probably) avert a Chinese Minsky Moment but it cannot wish away the slow rot of bad debt in the real economy.

A lot of the rising debt in Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East is in dollars and that makes borrowers acutely sensitive to a complex interplay of derivatives, Fed policy, and the U.S. exchange rate (now too strong). Global offshore dollar debt has jumped from $9.7 trillion to $12.4 trillion since 2012.

The metric to watch is the “cross-currency funding gap” — or liability gap — now a record $1.4 trillion. It has risen to 13 percent of U.S. dollar assets from 10 percent in mid-2008. Asian, European, and other non-U.S. banks are prohibited from drawing on U.S. subsidiaries — if they have them — to cope with a dollar liquidity squeeze overseas.

They have to tap the offshore funding markets. These famously blew up in 2008. The international banking system was saved then by the Fed’s currency swap lines to fellow central banks. The IMF is not sure if these are still forthcoming from Donald Trump’s Washington. (The swaps need Treasury approval.)

The world is on a sticky wicket. Past crisis policy has left us acutely vulnerable to an even bigger crisis. The central banks of Europe and Japan have reached exhaustion. The Fed’s remaining powder is a fraction (2/5) of what is normally needed to fight downturns. It is uncomfortably close to a credibility crisis of its own.

Fiscal policy can still pack a punch but for how long and which countries? The IMF’s Fiscal Monitor out today says the U.S. “cyclically adjusted” budget deficit is already a shocking 6.3 percent of GDP. Public debt is on track to rise from 104.3 percent last year to 115.8 percent by 2024 even on the most benign growth assumptions. You might say the U.S. is turning Japanese.

We will have to be very creative if any of the IMF’s dark fears come true.

* * *

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New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Friday-Monday, November 1-4, 2019

https://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/powellgata/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

iii) Other physical stories:

Chris Marcus discusses POMO with Dave Kranzler

(courtesy Arcadia Economics/Chris Marcus/Dave kranzler)

ARCADIA ECONOMICS

Federal Reserve To Start Purchasing Treasury Bills

Following a series of repurchase operations that were supposed to be temporary, last week Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell apparently felt that the liquidity issue had not yet been solved.

As he said “Indeed, my colleagues and I will soon announce measures to add to the supply of reserves over time.” And sure enough, later in the week the Fed announced that it was going to start purchasing short-term treasury bills.

Which is startling in the sense that even after doing almost a month of repo operations, those transactions have not been able to calm the pressures in the funding market. Which in itself is far from ideal, although perhaps only exacerbated in how Federal Reserve officials continue to tell the public that things are normal in the market and there’s no cause for concern. Similar to how prior to the financial crisis in 2008 Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson repeatedly warned the country about how the subprime issues were contained.

Fortunately Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics joined me on the show again to provide an update of what’s happening, what you should be aware of, and why the Fed is taking these unusual actions.

So to discover what’s really going on, click to watch the video now!


Chris Marcus

Now everybody wants to have  a gold trading platform.  The problem: no physical gold

(courtesy Rory Hall/.Daily Coin)

China, Russia, Brazil, India, And Now UAE: Everybody Wants A Gold Trading Platform!

Authored by Rory Hall via The Daily Coin,

China started something when they opened the Shanghai Gold Exchange where physical gold is traded to a global market. Russia began trading gold futures on the Moscow Exchange which was followed by China and Russia announcing they would open the BRICS Gold Exchange to assist the other members of the BRICS alliance to acquire more gold. This was followed by India stating they would be pursuing a gold spot exchange market and next up is the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announcing they, too, are going to open a physical gold trading platform. WOW! That’s a lot of physical gold changing hands on a daily, weekly, monthly and yearly basis.

This is all pointing towards what seems to be a likely conclusion – a new gold pricing mechanism that is operated by the Shanghai Gold Exchange instead of COMEX in Chicago and New York or the LBMA in London.

It seems that slowly and surely, the major gold producing nations of Russia, China and other BRICS nations are becoming tired of the dominance of an international gold price which is determined in a synthetic trading environment which has very little to do with the physical gold market.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange’s Shanghai Gold Price Benchmark which was launched in April 2016 is already a move towards physical gold price discovery, and while it does not yet influence prices in the international market, it has the infrastructure in place to do so. Source

Apparently, the UAE is already moving ton upon ton of physical gold through the nation as it makes up approximately 20% of all their exports outside of oil. That is an amazing percentage of business, especially, if you take into account the fact the UAE either doesn’t mine gold at all or is not mining a significant amount of gold.

The UAE will establish a federal platform for gold trading and the tracking of gold sources, the government has announced.The move – approved by the UAE Cabinet – is part of a larger policy to enhance the UAE’s position as a global hub for gold and jewellery trading.

The policy has three main pillars – governance, sustainability and innovation – with 10 separate strategic programmes and initiatives, also including the establishment of a federal platform for gold trading and tracking, international marketing of the gold sector, and the use of technology in the production of gold.

Additionally, the policy will develop tools and initiatives that stimulate growth “in order to facilitate doing business and bring added value to this vital sector”, according to the UAE’s state-run WAM news agency.

The gold trade accounts for 20 percent of the UAE’s total non-oil exports. Source

All of this movement in the physical gold market started in 2002 and just a few years later we are seeing a massive network of gold platforms outside the western world developing. China began laying the ground work for a central pricing mechanism connected to each new platform in 2016 when it launched the yuan denominated gold benchmark for global trade.

What would happen if all these gold markets began connecting one to the other and while trading gold in multiple currencies? What role will these markets play, if any, once there is a sovereign gold backed cryptocurrency announced? Will these other markets follow suit or will the new sovereign cryptocurrency set the standard?

In my opinion this does not bode well for the COMEX, LMBA and western bullion banking cabal. Not saying, or suggesting, there is an imminent “collapse” or anything of the such, what I am suggesting is that we are seeing realistic steps being made to move away from the global standard Federal Reserve Note, U.S. dollar based pricing of gold.

Source: Bloomberg

*  *  *

With global tensions spiking, thousands of Americans are moving their IRA or 401(k) into an IRA backed by physical gold. Now, thanks to a little-known IRS Tax Law, you can too. Learn how with a free info kit on gold from Birch Gold Group. It reveals how physical precious metals can protect your savings, and how to open a Gold IRA. Click here to get your free Info Kit on Gold.

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0784/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0837   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 1.38 POINTS OR .05%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 184.21 POINTS OR 0.69%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 21.06 POINTS OR 0.09%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.76/Euro RISES TO 1.1105

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.15/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.72/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 53.08 and Brent: 59.07

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.39%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.92% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.25%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.31: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.39

3k Gold at $1490.50 silver at: 17.56   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 7/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.05

3m oil into the 53 dollar handle for WTI and 59 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.72 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9899 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0990 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.39%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.76% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.24%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8925..

S&P Futures Surge Above 3,000 Amid Confusion Over Successful Brexit Deal

“Brexit’s the only show in town today”

– Rabobank FX strategist Lyn Graham-Taylor.

For once traders were less focused on the US-China trade deal rumorflow, and instead the catalyst for the overnight moves was the frentic last minute Brexit horsetrading which went from i) despair, as Northern Ireland’s DUP party said it could not support proposed solutions to Irish border checks “as things stand”, to ii) euphoria as Juncker said the UK and EU have reached a deal, and back to iii) disappointment after the DIP again said it won’t vote for Johnson’s Brexit deal when it is set for a vote on Saturday.

Predictably, futures initially slumped on the first DUP refusal to cooperate, then surged after Europe opened, spiking above 3,000 on the Juncker statement, then sliding back under 3,000 after the DUP once again poured cold water on the party.

Hot on the heels of trader optimism that a Brexit deal is almost done, Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index climbed as every major national benchmark in the region turned higher, while US equity futures followed the advance, though the moves eased as investors assessed its chances of winning crucial support. Treasuries led a government bond retreat, with the 10Y TSY climbing as high as 1.80%, before fading much of the move while gold initially slipped alongside bonds as haven demand ebbed. The Bloomberg dollar index also dropped.

 

The excitement over the deal breakthrough, which however may not last long with headlines such as this one around…

  • DUP WON’T VOTE FOR JOHNSON’S BREXIT DEAL: PARTY OFFICIALS

… was enough to tip investors off the fence after a mixed bag earnings from major European companies. Unilever said growth fell short of estimates while Nestle announced a $20BN buyback. Ericsson boosted its sales target for next year. Netflix gained in early trading after it met international subscriber estimates and despite slashing Q4 growth expectations in a time of surging new competition from the likes of Disney, Apple and HBO.

Earlier in Asia, a five-day stocks rally ground to a halt as Wednesday’s disappointing U.S. retail sales data on spread gloom; stocks fell in Tokyo, Sydney and Seoul, rose in Hong Kong and were barely changed in Shanghai. Taiwan Semiconductor, the primary chip supplier to Apple, projected current-quarter revenue ahead of analysts’ estimates. The Australian dollar strengthened after the country’s jobless rate unexpectedly fell and full-time employment climbed.

Brexit: the latest (via RanSquawk)

  • A EU-UK Brexit deal has been agreed; according to both the EU and UK side. However, initial reports noted that the DUP were on board with this, subsequently, multiple DUP sources have noted that their position has not changed from the statement earlier as such they do not support the deal. The FT notes the new protocol on the NI consent mechanism does not provide the DUP with a veto for the first 8-years. Which pushes back the veto time-line from 6-years to 8-years as was reported overnight.
  • The DUP stated that they cannot support PM Johnsons Brexit plan, stating there are issues on customs, consent along with a lack of VAT clarity. Additionally, reports indicate UK PM Johnson has no plans to meet with the DUP today.
  • According to reports the Northern Ireland Assembly will be allowed to hold a vote on whether to continue the border arrangements in six years and, if they agree to continue, every four years after this. ITV’s Peston suggested that EU leaders can still ratify before the weekend if legal text can be agreed by 0800BST on Thursday but added if not, there will be no deal before the weekend. EU Council President Tusk said a deal is ready, but cautioned there are “certain doubts on the British side”.

Sure enough, with “Brexit’s only show in town today”,” as Rabobank’s Lyn Graham-Taylor said, attention fell on the Sterling, which tracked equity futures closely, and which had shot to five-month highs, fell as much as 0.6% against the dollar to $1.2748 after the initial disappointment, before surging just shy of 1.3000 after Juncker said there was a deal, before sliding back to 1.2850 after the DUP crashed the party again.

 

 

Now Britain will either vote on Saturday, hoping the DUP supports the deal, or will seek an extension to the Oct. 31 departure date.

Meanwhile, in emerging-market, stocks gained for a sixth day, their longest winning streak since early April, after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators were nailing down a Phase 1 trade deal text for their presidents to sign next month. But U.S. retail sales fell for the first time in seven months, suggesting manufacturing-led weakness was spreading to the broader economy. U.S. consumption has been one of few bright spots in the global economy, so the data fanned worries the Sino-U.S. trade war would ultimately tip the world into recession.

“While the U.S. suspended a hike in tariffs, it hasn’t gone as far as scrapping the tariffs altogether, so it is hard to expect a quick pick-up in the economy,” said Yoshinori Shigemi, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.

Attention was also glued to the diplomatic fiasco with Turkey, after the country’s military advance in Syria created tensions with United States and Europe and brought about mild sanctions. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is to meet with U.S. Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo later. Although the U.S. pulled its troops out of the area to allow Turkey’s push, Pence and Pompeo are expected to urge Erdogan to declare a ceasefire, which Erdogan says will “never” happen. U.S. President Donald Trump warned of “devastating” sanctions if discussions did not go well. Turkish stocks were down 1.8% and the lira weakened to 5.8840 to the dollar. It has lost nearly 5% this month, making it the world’s worst performer for October.

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said US President Trump expects there will be a cease-fire regarding Turkey’s actions in Syria and suggested that increased tariffs on Turkey’s goods have been successful in the past. In related news, US conducted a pre-planned air strike in Syria to destroy some ammunition and abandoned vehicles as troops depart according to a US official.

The dollar index was last at 98.075, recovering from its lowest since Aug. 27 touched on Wednesday. Against the yen, it was a flat at 108.72 after peaking at 108.95.

In commodities, oil prices slipped after industry data showed a larger-than-expected build-up in U.S. crude stockpiles, adding to concerns that global demand for oil may weaken amid further signs of an economic slowdown. Brent crude futures fell 0.89% to $58.89 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 1.03% to $52.81.

Looking ahead highlights include, US Housing Permits & Starts, Philadelphia Fed, Industrial Production and EIA Weekly Stocks, EU Council Summit Begins, Fed’s Evans, Bowman, Williams, RBA’s Debelle, ECB’s Coeure, Riksbank’s Ingves and Jansson. Honeywell, Morgan Stanley, and Philip Morris are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,996.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.03% to 393.56
  • MXAP up 0.04% to 159.87
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 514.91
  • Nikkei down 0.09% to 22,451.86
  • Topix down 0.5% to 1,624.16
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 26,848.49
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.05% to 2,977.33
  • Sensex up 0.8% to 38,922.85
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 6,684.68
  • Kospi down 0.2% to 2,077.94
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to -0.385%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1084
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.0 bps to 0.586%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.3 bps to 0.276%
  • Brent futures little changed at $59.39/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,485.85
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.5% to 97.56

Top Overnight News

  • The U.K. and the European Union reached an agreement Thursday that could pave the way for Britain to finally break its 46- year-old ties to the bloc this month. The withdrawal accord was completed just in time for EU leaders to assess it when they gather for summit talks in the Belgian capital later in the day. The deal then needs to win the backing of the U.K. Parliament on Saturday
  • The biggest issue, as Brexit technical talks continued into the night, was how to handle sales tax in Northern Ireland. Conversations in London and Brussels suggested a deal is close. In a concession to Arlene Foster and her supporters, the Northern Ireland assembly will be allowed the chance to give or withdraw consent for arrangements to cover the Irish border
  • A White House meeting between Donald Trump and congressional leaders to contain fallout from the Syria crisis broke down abruptly Wednesday, with the president hurling insults at House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who accused him of having a “meltdown”
  • Republican senators said Wednesday they want to move quickly on legislation to support pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong despite a threat of retaliation from China
  • Hong Kong’s legislature struggled again to hold another meeting Thursday as opposition lawmakers disrupted Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s effort to answer questions about her policy address
  • RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle conceded that the central bank had been caught off guard by the scale of the slump in building activity, which turned down “sooner and by more than we had expected.” Building approvals are now around 40% lower than their late 2017 peak, he said
  • For almost half a million British companies, a Brexit deal that ends three years of uncertainty about the future can’t come soon enough. The number of U.K. firms in “significant” financial distress has increased 40% to 489,000 since the country voted to leave the European Union in 2016, according to research published on Thursday
  • HSBC Holdings Plc may partially exit stock trading in some developed Western markets as part of a cost-cutting drive by Noel Quinn, the interim chief executive who wants the top job on a permanent basis
  • The Chinese foreign ministry said it has detained two American citizens who run an English-teaching business in China, a development that comes as a trade war stokes broader tensions between the countries
  • Elizabeth Warren took a lot of flak at this week’s Democratic presidential debate for being evasive about the taxes needed to pay for the $30 trillion Medicare for All plan she champions. There’s a reason for being vague: Her team hasn’t yet figured out how to pay for it

Asian equity markets traded mixed after the lacklustre tone rolled over from Wall St where all majors finished with marginal losses as participants digested earnings and with sentiment dampened by weak US Retail Sales. ASX 200 (-0.8%) was led lower by underperformance in tech and with mining names closely behind including BHP after its quarterly updates showed iron ore output was flat Y/Y, while Nikkei 225 (U/C) was choppy around the 22500 level and near its YTD highs with mild JPY weakness just about keeping the index afloat. Conversely, Hang Seng (+0.7%) outperformed as property names surged and Shanghai Comp. (Unch.) failed to benefit from recent comments by China’s Cabinet that it will step up efforts to attract foreign investment and will not allow forced technology transfers, while China will also ensure lower tax for manufacturing and other sectors. Finally, 10yr JGBs declined as Japanese stocks remained afloat near 10-month highs and following mixed results at the 5yr JGB auction which showed slightly higher yields and lower accepted prices.

Top Asian News

  • Fresh Chaos in Hong Kong’s Legislature Shows Gridlock Facing Lam
  • Hong Kong Tycoons Are $3 Billion Richer on Lam’s Housing Policy
  • China Wants Companies to Sell Dollar Bonds in Shanghai FTZ
  • Profit Warnings Plague Corporate China as Economy Worsens

Major European Bourses (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%) are in the green, albeit off highs, after EU officials confirmed a provisional Brexit deal had been agreed ahead of the EU Council Summit today/tomorrow (although the DUP are reportedly yet to be onboard), news which saw the DAX (+0.5%) make fresh YTD highs earlier in the session. The FTSE 100 (+0.5%) enjoyed some early outperformance on an initially weaker pound but remain choppy as the currency surged on the latest Brexit updates, although the index is supported by domestic banks and housing names. Separately, some outperformance is being seen in periphery bourses (FTSE MIB +0.8%, IBEX 35 +0.8%); Italy’s Cabinet yesterday approved its draft 2020 budget and submitted it to the EU, while the latest polling out of Spain saw the country’s conservative People’s Party making healthy gains following the sentencing of Catalan separatist leaders at the expense of the ruling Socialist Party (ahead of 10 November elections). Sectors are mixed but mostly in the green, with outperformance seen in Health Care (+0.6%) and underperformance in Tech (-0.1%). Energy (+0.5%) is higher despite lower crude prices. Chip names, including Wirecard (-2.9%), were weighed after Taiwan’s TSMC warned of a single digit Y/Y decline in global semiconductor market growth this year in its earnings report (although Q3 earnings were strong). In terms of notable movers; Ericsson (+6.7%) shot higher after the Co. posted strong earnings, including an increase to its 2020 revenue guidance. Unilever (+1.0%) were also buoyed by decent earnings. Conversely, weak earnings from Faurecia (-4.3%), Telia (-5.2%) and Pernod Ricard (-3.4%) saw their respective stocks under pressure. Elsewhere, Iliad (+4.8%) shares moved higher after the Co. was upgraded at JPM.

Top European News

  • WH Smith Buys Marshall Retail to Boost U.S. Growth Prospects
  • Ericsson Jumps After Lifting Sales Goal on 5G Spending Boost
  • Domino’s Pizza Group to Exit Four International Markets
  • Temenos Shares Fall as Software Company Misses Low Estimate

In FX, the Antipodean Dollars are outperforming in wake of overnight data showing an unexpected dip in the Aussie unemployment rate and a jobless tally that would have almost doubled consensus barring a decline in the part time count. Aud/Usd has crossed the 0.6800 mark, with perhaps some added impetus from positive Chinese trade chat regarding the outcome of recent talks in Washington, and nudging towards one of several hefty option expiries spanning the big figure (see 7.02BST post on the headline feed for details of all today’s major NY cut rollovers). In similar vein, the Kiwi has reclaimed 0.6300, albeit lagging in cross terms as Aud/Nzd rebounds over 1.0750 and sets sights on 1.0800 again.

  • GBP – Sterling may not quite be the biggest G10 winner, but it remains well on top in cumulative price and volatility terms given another 200+ pip gap from top to toe in Cable and full point+ range in Eur/Gbp. Another cascade of Brexit-related headlines has been paramount, and especially those relating ongoing intransigence from the DUP over several components of the compromised draft treaty hammered out by UK and EU negotiators. In short, EU diplomats and PM Johnson have declared that a deal is finally back on or even done pending Parliament approval, but HoC approval remains in doubt even discounting DUP rejection. However, the Pound has emerged from its latest bout of whipsaw trade firmer, albeit off best levels and seemingly relieved if not completely satisfied that another hurdle has been overcome, or perhaps merely assuming that enough progress towards a final withdrawal agreement has been achieved to warrant a further (technical) extension rather than a no deal departure on October 31. Cable is holding above 1.2900 and Eur/Gpp around 0.8600.
  • USD – The Greenback is softer across the board, with the DXY dipping under 97.500 and only the safest-havens alongside a few other laggards faring worse than the Buck ahead of more top tier US data/Fed speak and post-disappointing retail sales on Wednesday.
  • EUR/CHF/CAD – All benefiting from a largely Brexit-inspired upturn in risk sentiment, not to mention the aforementioned US Dollar demise, with the single currency scaling 1.1100, Franc back up near 0.9900 and Loonie edging closer to 1.3150 in advance of Canadian manufacturing sales.
  • NOK/SEK – The Scandi Crowns are striving to stop the rot after plumbing new multi-year/record lows in wake of significantly weaker than forecast Swedish labour stats, but the Nok is lagging after slipping below 10.2000 even though the data may yet convince the Riksbank to roll back or possibly remove its rate hike guidance next week.

In commodities, a choppy session thus far for WTI and Brent futures which initially received a double whammy from larger-than-forecast US crude stockpiles and as sentiment took a turn for the worse as Brexit developments reach a stalemate on the domestic front, albeit prices saw upside as EU announced that a Brexit deal has been reached. As a recap, the weekly API data (which was delayed due to Monday’s US Columbus Day holiday) showed a US inventory build of 10.5mln barrels vs. Exp. build of 2.9mln barrels. WTI and Brent futures immediately declined some 0.3-0.4/bbl and continued to be pressured throughout the APAC and early EU sessions. WTI futures reside just around the 53/bbl mark (having tested 52.75/bbl overnight) whilst Brent futures gained ground above 59/bbl level but pared some of the gains. Traders will continue eyeing Brexit/US-Sino newsflow for sentiment-driven action whilst the EIA is due to report weekly crude stocks at 1600BST with the headline forecast to show a build of 2.878mln barrels. Elsewhere, gold prices are flat intra-day and within a tight range below 1500/oz (1483-93/oz) as the yellow metal eyes Brexit developments, whilst copper recovered some losses and moved into positive territory amid mostly constructive comments from China’s MOFCOM whilst the red metal received a boost from the aforementioned Brexit headlines.

US Event Calendar

  • Oct. 17-Oct. 18: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $83.0b, prior $119.1b
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.32m, prior 1.36m; Building Permits, est. 1.35m, prior 1.42m
  • 8:30am: Building Permits MoM, est. -5.26%, prior 7.7%;Housing Starts MoM, est. -3.23%, prior 12.3%
  • 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 7.6, prior 12
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,000, prior 210,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.68m, prior 1.68m
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production MoM, est. -0.2%, prior 0.6%; Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. -0.3%, prior 0.5%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Back from Germany and back in the EMR hot seat this morning after a day away from it yesterday. As I was flying back it made me wonder whether this was my last trip to the continent as an EU citizen. The next 48-72 hours will likely go a long way towards answering that question.

So where are we with Brexit. Well there have been more deadlines missed over the last few days than there are nightly in my house over bedtime for the kids. Believe me that’s a lot. However the fact that the breaking of these has not proved terminal to the process means that negotiations have been inching forward bit by bit.

Most media reporting suggests that all that stands in the way of a deal being agreed prior the EU summit meeting today and then to Parliament on Saturday is the DUP support. Given their red lines this is by no means guaranteed but without them the deal looks unlikely to pass through Parliament.

DB’s Oliver Harvey has an updated note ( here ), where he lays out the possible and likeliest scenarios and their implications for the pound. For now, he is staying bullish on the currency which gained +0.35% yesterday despite trading in a +/-1.55% range yesterday on very conflicting headlines.

Ultimately, the most important factor will be: does Prime Minister Johnson put pen to paper and agree to a deal with the EU? If he does, as looks increasingly likely, then the details of whether or not the DUP and ERG stay onside will be a timing of events issue more than anything else. If they support the deal, then it will likely pass parliament and the UK would leave the EU with a deal. If they do not support it, we would likely get either a referendum or an election where the Conservative Party runs on the platform of a pre-signed deal. Interestingly polling company ComRes published the biggest opinion poll since the referendum yesterday and this suggested that excluding don’t knows, 54% said their current preference was to leave the EU. So it’s not clear that a “People’s Vote” would change things. There was a preference for leaving with a deal though. For balance I should say that most polls this year have shown a small lead for remain but they’ve all been relatively close.

If Johnson doesn’t reach a deal, and reverts to a no-deal stance, whether due to pressure from his Brexiteer flank or otherwise, then Brexit tail risks are reintroduced. This is because the UK government’s political incentives will likely shift back towards a no deal Brexit. Failure to reach an agreement with the EU27 will be the result of Mr Johnson failing to secure support from the DUP/ERG. As a consequence, pressing ahead with negotiations next week after having been forced to extend Article 50 by the Benn legislation will make the government look weak, particularly if Mr Johnson’s deal is characterised politically as a ‘sell out’ by the DUP/ERG/Brexit Party. So today is probably more crucial than Saturday. Indeed some headlines have suggested the opposition might vote against a Saturday sitting. Given they’ve recently put a 4-day week in their policy aspirations perhaps that’s the reason. In reality a motion against the sitting is unlikely to be voted down even if it does clash with the England Rugby World Cup quarter-final. Expect another flurry of headlines today.

A quick check on Sterling this morning shows that its trading largely flattish overnight at 1.2821. Meanwhile the rest of Asian markets are trading mixed with the Hang Seng (+0.74%) up while the Kospi (-0.16%) is down and the Shanghai Comp and Nikkei are trading flat. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are also broadly unchanged. WTI oil prices are down c. -0.81% this morning as the American Petroleum Institute reported that US crude inventories rose by 10.5 mn barrels last week, marking the biggest increase since February 2017 if confirmed by the official Energy Information Administration figures due today. In other news, Japan remained the biggest foreign owner of US Treasuries in August with a holding of $1.17 tn (+$44bn during the month) as China’s holdings continued to drop. They fell -$6.8bn to $1.1 tn.

This all follows a fairly damp squib of a session on Wall Street yesterday which saw the S&P 500 (-0.19%), DOW (-0.08%) and NASDAQ (-0.30%) all end the day little changed. Earnings didn’t really change the narrative although Bank of America shares rose +1.51% after beating consensus earnings forecasts. After markets closed, Netflix reported a strong earnings beat of $1.47 per share compared to expectations for $1.04, and despite weaker new subscribers numbers, the stock was up +9.86% in after hours trading. Alcoa (+4.23%) also reported after the close, and rallied despite lowering their demand outlook. President Trump also said at a meeting with Italian President Mattarella that “China has started buying already from the farmers” but that a deal probably won’t be signed until Trump’s meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping next month at the APEC summit.

Some of the more interesting price action at the moment is going on in European bond markets where 10y Bunds broke above -0.40% yesterday to close at -0.387%, a level they haven’t been at since 26 July. That now means yields are +35bps above the September intraday lows or if you prefer meaningless percentages, a near 48% move. The recent positive Brexit news has contributed (n.b. 10y Gilt yields rose +9.6bps from the intraday lows yesterday) while there was a story on Bloomberg about the CDU caucus in the Bundestag breaking its long-term commitment to the “black zero” should an economic downturn require fiscal easing. The hurdle for fiscal easing in Germany remains very high but the pressure and headlines keep on building.

Meanwhile we heard from a number of ECB Governing Council members over the last 24 hours with the ECB’s Chief Economist Philip lane advocating fiscal easing by saying “If there were fiscal expansion in these current conditions, the multiplier will be quite big. This goes back to finance ministers thinking about fiscal policy as a macro tool.” On growth, he said “Our assessment is that we’re not at the edge, but of course we’re closer to the edge than we were.” However, Bundesbank President Jens Weidman, who also spoke overnight was measured in his response on fiscal easing as he said that while some additional spending might be possible in the short term, “with respect to macroeconomic stabilization, any further stimulus appears unnecessary, unless a perceptible deterioration in the economic outlook becomes apparent. Germany’s output gap is about to close and forecasts don’t foresee a marked deterioration.” On the other hand, Dutch governor Klaas Knot and French Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau both called for a review of both the ECB and EU’s economic strategy with Klass Knot saying that the ECB could increase its flexibility by introducing a symmetric band around the inflation aim, and governments could simplify the Stability and Growth Pact to put more emphasis on debt levels relative to budget deficits. French Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau also said that Germany among euro-area countries has fiscal room to spend more and could help take some weight off the ECB. Lastly, Austrian Governor Robert Holzmann, said that one of the main tasks of Christine Lagarde will be to restore harmony in the decision-making Governing Council and added “I expect that Lagarde will start a process in the ECB that more strongly integrates national central banks.”

Back to yesterday and Treasuries were marginally stronger at the end of the day with 10y yields down -2.6bps and 2y yields down -2.8bps. That being said they did nudge off the lows despite a poor September US retail sales report. Indeed there were misses at a headline level (-0.3% mom vs. +0.3% expected) and core (0.0% mom vs. +0.3% expected) along with the most important control group (0.0% mom vs. +0.3% expected) component. Upward revisions to the prior data were cited as a reason for the misses however there was no such revision to the control group component. The market is now almost completely priced for a cut at the end of this month (92% to be exact) with little significant data due before the meeting now.

Those higher odds of a cut were consistent with yesterday’s Fed rhetoric. Chicago’s Evans reasserted himself as a dove, saying “there is some argument for more accommodation” and that “inflation expectations, which are a key determinant of actual inflation, have slipped further this year and today are at uncomfortably low levels.” Dallas’s Kaplan was more circumspect, saying that he feels “a little more agnostic” about additional cuts compared to his strong support for the last two cuts. Finally, the Fed’s beige book of economic commentary downgraded its characterisation of the pace of growth to “slight to modest” from “moderate,” which equates to a minor downgrade.

As for the other data out yesterday, the October NAHB housing market index print rose 3pts to 71 after expectations were for no change, while business inventories were flat in August. Here in the UK the inflation data was in line to slightly soft with the headline at 1.7% yoy (vs. 1.8% expected) and core at 1.7% yoy (vs. 1.7% expected). It was noted that PPI core output prices continued to soften however. For completeness there was no change for the Euro Area’s final core CPI reading in September of 1.0% yoy.

To the day ahead now, which this morning includes September retail sales data in the UK, while in the US the data consists of September housing starts and building permits, October Philly Fed business outlook, weekly jobless claims and September industrial and manufacturing production. Away from that we’re due to hear from the Fed’s Evans, Bowman and Williams while over at the ECB Villeroy, Visco and Knot are all due to speak. The EU summit will obviously be a big focus, while the BoE’s latest credit conditions survey is also due out. Earnings highlights include Morgan Stanley.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.35 POINTS OR 0.05%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 184.21 POINTS OR 0.69%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 21.06 POINTS OR 0.09%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .76%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0784 /Oil UP TO 53.08 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.07 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0784 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0837 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

China/USA

The arrest of those two American teachers I reported on is still in effect and that has raised trade tensions between the two countries

(zerohedge)

Beijing Confirms Arrest Of Two Americans As Trade Tensions Rise

In a report that probably sent a chill down the spine of all Americans working or living in mainland China, two Americans who run an English-teaching business in China have been arrested and detained on “bogus” charges, according to a statement published on their company’s Facebook page.

Jacob Harlan, a father of five, and Alyssa Petersen, were arrested in Jiangsu province last month, according to Hong Kong Free Press.

Alyssa Petersen

Their detention echoes the arrest of two Canadian nationals late last year. One man was a former diplomat, while the other ran a business taking westerners on tours of North Korea. They’re both still in prison in China after formerly being charged with endangering national security. The charges are widely seen as bogus, and the arrests as political retribution for the detention of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou by Canadian authorities at the behest of American prosecutors.

In the US, a gofundme page has been set up to raise money for their legal fees. According to the page, the two were charged with “illegally moving people across borders.”

Their arrests are being reported amid negotiations between the US and Beijing over a potential trade deal. The State Department said that it’s “aware” of the arrests and that it is taking its duty to assist the two US citizens seriously.

“We are aware of the detention of two US citizens in Jiangsu, China and the charges being brought against them by the provincial government,” a US State Department official said on condition of anonymity.

“We take seriously our responsibility to assist US citizens abroad and are monitoring the situation.”

China Horizons said in a Facebook post last week that the pair “are being charged for bogus crimes and their families are working on getting them international lawyers to help them get back home to the States.” The company helps Americans find posts teaching English at Chinese schools. It said on its Facebook page that it now plans to shut down at the end of October.

“Unfortunately, because of increasing political and economic problems between the U.S. and China, we are no longer able to send teachers to china safely,” the company wrote on its Facebook page.

Harlan, the founder of the company, is reportedly being held in a hotel in Zhenjiang under police surveillance. He was detained while he was with his eight-year-old daughter at a hotel in Weifang. Peterson, who is an employee with China Horizons, was detained around Sept. 27 and wasn’t heard from for two weeks until the State Department finally located her.

“We received information that she is doing okay, She wakes up when told, she goes to sleep when told. She spends her day in a Jail Cell or walking in a circle counting steps,” the gofundme.com page said.

“She cannot have any contact with anyone outside of a Consulate Officer who can visit once a month and a Lawyer.”

According to Bloomberg, the arrests come on what appears to be a broader crackdown on foreign teachers working in China. State-owned news agency Xinhua has reported that 16 foreign teachers were arrested in July, following reports that thousands of teachers may be working in the country illegally. Notably, the crackdown follows the imposition of new rules about Chinese diplomats operating in the US, requiring them to notify American officials if they visit research institutions or hold meetings with Americans. China claims these restrictions violate the Vienna Convention on diplomatic relations.

Geng Shuang, the spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, confirmed the detentions, and urged the US to “correct its mistake” and withdraw the new diplomatic rules, adding that he “doesn’t see” how the detentions could be related to trade.

end
China seems to be “holding all the cards” as they secretly order NBA Commissioner to fire Houston Rockets manager over his support of protesters re: Hong Kong.
(zerohedge)

China Secretly Ordered NBA Commissioner To Fire Rockets’ GM Over Hong Kong Tweet

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver revealed on Thursday that the Chinese government insisted the league fire Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey over a now-deleted October 4 tweet supporting the protesters in Hong Kong, according to Time.

We made clear that we were being asked to fire him, by the Chinese government, by the parties we dealt with, government and business,” Silver said in his first US interview about the league’s ongoing free speech scandal. “We said there’s no chance that’s happening. There’s no chance we’ll even discipline him.”

Speaking at the TIME 100 Health Summit, Silver noted that “The losses have already been substantial,” adding “Our games are not back on the air in China as we speak, and we’ll see what happens next.”

“I don’t know where we go from here,” Silver said, adding “The financial consequences have been and may continue to be fairly dramatic.

Silver said that the media coverage of the NBA’s response to Morey’s tweet “frankly was confusing to me when I got home [from China]. Only because I had thought we’d taken a principled position. I thought we hadn’t so-called acquiesced to the Chinese.”

The NBA’s initial statement last week used the world “regrettable,” which Silver emphasized was describing the reaction of Chinese government officials, business executives and NBA fans in China — not the content of Morey’s tweet itself. “Maybe I was trying too hard to be a diplomat,” Silver said. “I didn’t see it as my role as the commissioner of the NBA to weigh in on the substance of the protest, but to say here’s this platform” for free expression. –Time

Silver says the NBA didn’t cave in to China’s demands, noting “These American values — we are an American business — travel with us wherever we go.”

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

The pound fades as the DUP will not support BoJO;s deal

(zerohedge)

Pound Fades As DUP Says It Won’t Support Johnson’s Deal

Update: Now that Johnson has won the EU leadership’s backing for his deal, he’s seeking their approval for another measure that his team believe will be essential to passing it through Parliament.

Johnson now wants EU leaders to offer the UK two options: Either this deal, or the UK leaves the EU on Oct. 31 without a deal. By law, Johnson is only required to ask the EU for an extension on Oct. 19 if Parliament hasn’t approved a deal. The EU is not obligated to grant the extension.

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

No 10 source says Johnson will ask leaders to rule out a further delay – he’s expected to ask them to make clear it’s ‘the new deal or no deal but no delays’ he will tell EU leaders

While it’s not guaranteed, Johnson might be able to win support from enough members of the opposition who are anxious enough about a ‘no deal’ Brexit that they might back Johnson if the DUP proves truly intransigent.

After all, if Johnson can pull it off, it’d be cheaper than bribing the DUP with public money.

Already on Thursday, almost all of the GBP’s gain against the dollar has been erased as traders accept that Johnson still needs this second commitment from EU to materially raise the odds of getting it through Parliament on Saturday.

* * *

Does it almost sound too good to be true?

The pound rallied sharply Thursday morning on reports that, after nearly two-and-a-half years of often infuriatingly tedious dealmaking, a Brexit deal has been finished.

Jean-Claude Juncker said the EU had signed on to the deal after a spree of frenzied dealmaking as talks blew past a midnight deadline set by Michel Barnier, the EU27’s top Brexit negotiator. On Thursday, an EU Council summit will begin. Many expect that hammering out a final Brexit deal would be a critical focus of the summit. But now that an agreement on a revised protocol for the Ireland/Northern Ireland border has been reached, and Juncker has given the deal his endorsement, confirmatory votes from the rest of the EU27 are expected to be largely ceremonial.

Johnson celebrated the EU’s decision with a tweet where he declared the deal “takes back control”

Boris Johnson

@BorisJohnson

We’ve got a great new deal that takes back control — now Parliament should get Brexit done on Saturday so we can move on to other priorities like the cost of living, the NHS, violent crime and our environment

In a letter endorsing the deal, Juncker described the new protocol for the Northern Ireland-Republic of Ireland border, long seen as the main obstacle to a deal, as “fair and balanced” and called the agreement “a testament to our commitment to find solutions.”

Jean-Claude Juncker

@JunckerEU

🇪🇺🤝🇬🇧 Where there is a will, there is a – we have one! It’s a fair and balanced agreement for the EU and the UK and it is testament to our commitment to find solutions. I recommend that endorses this deal.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

However, the DUP, a small conservative party from Northern Ireland that had repeatedly helped sabotage Theresa May’s attempts to pass a deal, has waffled on whether it will support Johnson’s deal in Parliament. Though the party only has 10 votes, its support is likely critical for Johnson to pass a withdrawal bill at Saturday’s special session of Parliament.

As one Twitter user joked, Johnson woke up on Thursday and learned what it must have been like for Theresa May after the DUP vowed to sabotage his new deal. In a letter, the DUP leadership said “we could not support what is being suggested on customs and consent issues and there is a lack of clarity on VAT.”

Sam Coates Sky@SamCoatesSky

Boris Johnson waking up this morning to discover what being Theresa May felt like

The party is saying once again that it cannot support Johnson’s deal because of the VAT scheme set up for Northern Ireland. But Johnson might be able to circumvent them by recruiting votes back from the opposition. However, another major sticking point is the loss of a DUP veto over the customs rules outlined in the deal. The new consent mechanism for Northern Ireland now requires only a majority from the Northern Ireland Assembly. There’s also been speculation that the DUP is simply trying to extort the Johnson government for more money to bring back home to their constituents.

Escorts Bestcorts. Come in if you’re saucy.@Dar42

So how much cash will the ask for as a bribe so that the government can force their agreement into parliament?

I reckon £8 billion.

Meanwhile, the pound has rocketed back to just under $1.30, its strongest level since June.

While Johnson’s deal with the EU leadership is significant, the biggest obstacle to a Brexit deal has always been getting it through Parliament. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has insisted that the opposition will support another Brexit referendum, followed by re-negotiating a deal with the EU. Whether Johnson can get the deal done during Saturday’s last-minute weekend session – something that hasn’t been done since the early 1980s – remains to be seen. It’s very likely that he won’t, at which point his opponents will invoke the Benn Act to try and force Johnson to ask the EU for another extension of Article 50.

end

Supposedly a Brexit deal has been reached

(Associated Press)

Brexit deal has been reached, E.U. and U.K. leaders say

Oct 17, 2019 7:41 a.m. ET

British parliament must still ratify deal

BRUSSELS (AP) — Britain and the European Union finally reached a new tentative Brexit deal on Thursday, hoping to escape the acrimony, divisions and frustration of their three-year divorce battle. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson now faces the Herculean task of selling the accord to his recalcitrant parliament — including his allies in Northern Ireland.

Only hours before Brussels hosted a summit of the bloc’s 28 national leaders, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker tweeted: “We have one! It’s a fair and balanced agreement for the EU and the UK and it is testament to our commitment to find solutions.”

Johnson tweeted that the two sides had struck a “great new deal” and urged U.K. lawmakers to ratify it in a special session being held Saturday — only the first time since 1982 that British lawmakers have been at work on that day.

“This is a deal which allows us to get Brexit done and leave the EU in two weeks’ time,” Johnson tweeted.

European stocks SXXP, +0.16% and U.S. stock futures moved higher, with the Dow industrials YM00, +0.24% rising by 86 points. Read Europe Markets.

So-called safe haven currencies such as the Japanese yen USDJPY, -0.13% turned lower.

Yet immediately complicating matters was Johnson’s Northern Irish government allies, which didn’t waste a minute before announcing they could not back the tentative Brexit deal because of the way it handled the Irish border.

Johnson, however, needs all the support he can get to push any Brexit deal past a deeply divided Parliament and that knowledge tempered jubilation at the EU summit. The U.K. Parliament already rejected a previous Brexit deal crafted by former British Prime Minister Theresa May three times.

EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has been through this scenario before.

“We have this history. That is why my mountaineering temperament keeps me careful and cautious,” said Barnier, who hails from the French Alps and organized the 1992 Olympic Winter Games there.

Barnier was in the room when the leaders called each other and said Johnson “told President Juncker this morning that he believed he was able to get the deal approved,” adding Johnson said he was “confident about his capacity to convince a majority.”

The agreement must still be formally approved by the bloc and ratified by the European Parliament.

The key hurdle to a Brexit deal was finding a way to keep goods and people flowing freely across the border between EU member Ireland and the U.K.’s Northern Ireland after Brexit. That invisible, open border has underpinned the region’s peace accord and allowed the economies of both Ireland and Northern Ireland to grow.

Johnson insists that all of the U.K. — including Northern Ireland — must leave the bloc’s customs union, which would seem to make border checks and tariffs inevitable.

But Barnier said the deal “squares this circle” by leaving Northern Ireland inside the EU single market for goods — so border checks are not needed — and also eliminating customs checks at the Irish border. Instead, customs checks will be carried out and tariffs levied on goods entering Northern Ireland that are destined for the EU.

That effectively means a customs border in the Irish Sea — something the British government long said it would not allow and something Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party vehemently opposes.

DUP leader Arlene Foster and the party’s parliamentary chief Nigel Dodds said they “could not support what is being suggested on customs and consent issues,” referring to a say the Northern Irish authorities might have in future developments on the border.

The party said their position was unchanged after the announcement of the provisional deal.

But the EU has compromised, too, by allowing Northern Ireland special access to its single market. And the deal gives Northern Ireland a say over the rules, something that was missing from May’s previous rejected agreement. After four years, the Northern Ireland Assembly will vote on whether to continue the arrangement or end it.

Johnson — who took office in July vowing that Britain would finally leave the EU on Oct. 31 with or without a deal — on Wednesday likened Brexit to climbing Mount Everest.

Legislator Bim Afolami quoted the prime minister as saying “the summit is in sight, but it is shrouded in cloud. But we can get there.”

-END-

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Syria

Our resident non conformist Brandon Smith explains his take on the Syrian situation

a must read…

(Brandon Smith)

The Syrian Debacle Is Actually Well-Planned Chaos

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

For many years now I have focused a considerable amount of analysis on the subject of Syria, with an emphasis on the country’s importance to the global elites as a kind of geopolitical detonator; the first domino in a chain of dominoes that could lead to a war involving international powers. I believe this war will develop on multiple fronts, most importantly on the economic front, but it could very well turn into a shooting war involving numerous actors.

Syria is so important, in fact, that the establishment has been careful to smother all discussion about what is really going on there in a fog of propaganda. And make no mistake, BOTH Republicans and Democrats as well as eastern and western governments are participating in the lies and misdirection.  Obviously, the first and most important lie is a multi-sided one, and we can’t continue forward until it’s dissected – I am speaking of the lie of US involvement in the region.

Lie #1: The US Has Legitimacy In The Original Syrian Conflict

First, most people reading this should know by now that US covert intelligence agencies (among others) were the force behind the “revolution” in Syria against the Bashar al-Assad. The majority of the fighters coming into the region were trained and equipped in Jordan in camps run by western agencies. The program was called “Operation Timber Sycamore” and was launched in different stages from 2011-2013.

It’s clear according to the evidence that the Arab Spring and the conflict in Syria were products of global establishment meddling in the area. Weapons were funneled from the Libyan crisis into the hands of “rebels” that infiltrated Syria, and equipment directly provided by the US found its way into the hands of groups that would eventually become what we now know as ISIS. The Obama Administration, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, John Bolton and many others were intimately involved in Timber Sycamore. The war in Syria was entirely engineered from behind the scenes.

The bottom line:  The US has no legitimacy there.

In the Liberty Movement we talk about this conspiracy fact often, but I don’t think many people consider the wider implications. Was the purpose merely to overthrow Assad? Was it about installing a government that was hostile to Russia? Was it to lure Iran into a vulnerable position? Was it all about oil? The answer is no to most of these questions. These are surface explanations that do not satisfy the facts on hand. There is far more to Syria than meets the eye.

Lie #2: The Original Conflict In Syria Is The Current Conflict

Let’s distill this down to some primary facts: The US and other nations created ISIS and deliberately destabilized Syria. The establishment then tried to convince the American public to support the use of military forces in the region to back the insurgents and the civil war they created. This initial plan failed.

Then, the establishment used the terror groups they created in Syria as an argument for why the US needed to send troops into Syria. This plan partially succeeded, but failed overall to generate public support for wider US involvement.

Kurdish tribes in northern Syria were then forced to defend themselves against the spread of the ISIS plague. The Kurds fought bravely to defend their homes from the terror threat that western agencies had conjured, losing 11,000 fighters in the process. They seem to be the only innocent people involved in the entire affair. They joined the US as allies under the assumption that the US goal was to destroy ISIS. This was NOT the US goal. Not under Obama, nor under Trump. The real goal has always been to use ISIS as an excuse to maintain a US presence in Syria (we will get to why in a moment).

Today, the war has shifted once again. This time, Turkey is invading Syria with claims that the Kurds present an existential danger. The reality is that the Turkish government has sought to erase all Kurdish culture from Turkey and Northern Syria since the 1970’s, including banning the Kurdish language and Kurdish dress and Kurdish names. Even the words “Kurd” and “Kurdish were eventually banned. The Kurds responded by forming the PKK and calling for a sovereign Kurdish state which would allow them to live without oppression. The Kurds did not turn to direct action until the 1980’s after many years of totalitarian subjugation.

The Turkish invasion today is made possible by the rather convenient surprise pull-back of US forces from the northern border. Now, there is yet another excuse for wider involvement in Syria. The US is not out of the war; the war is just getting started. Each time the Syrian problem starts to fade and it looks like it will be resolved, something else happens which triggers another explosion of fighting. This is not a coincidence.

Lie #3: The Trump Administration Is Pulling US Troops Out Of Syria

This is not happening, and anyone who believes Trump is actually ending US involvement has been duped. It’s also not the first time we’ve heard promises from Donald Trump on an end to the wars in the Middle East.

Over a year ago Trump proclaimed that he would be pulling the troops out of Syria, yet, only a week later it was determined that they would remain. Recently Trump made the claim again, and only days later the Pentagon admitted that US troops were only going to be shifted back from the border while the Kurds, our former allies, would be attacked by Turkish forces. Turkey’s military spokesman has said that they will “correct the demographics changed by the YPG (Kurdish defense units much like citizen militias) in Northeast Syria”. In other words, the goal is ethnic cleansing, and as the Armenian genocide teaches us, the Turks are no strangers to ethnic cleansing.

Trump is not the only world leader to pull this kind of stunt, either. Vladimir Putin did the same thing in 2016, announcing an end to military action by Russia in Syria and a removal of troops, only to keep Russian forces there and well entrenched. The Russian presence has done little to prevent a flurry of Israeli air strikes against Syria, nor have they acted to prevent the Turkish invasion, so we must question what exactly Russia is still doing there as much as the US?

These constant fake-outs on a Syrian withdrawal are meant only for the general public as a way of pacifying concerns, and it seems to be working. To this day many people still believe that Trump had pulled US troops out of Syria (or is withdrawing them right now) and Putin pulled Russian troops out after “defeating ISIS”. None of this ever happened. If you tell a big lie enough times the uneducated masses will start to adopt it as the truth.

Lie #4: The International Community Is Sincerely Worried About A Kurdish Genocide

Wow, it truly warms my heart to witness the sudden international outpouring of support for the Kurds in Syria. Establishment rags like the Washington Post and the New York Times, the EU government, the Israeli government, even Trump himself are all announcing their support for the Kurds and admonishing Turkish actions. They are all ready to enforce sanctions or even go to war in the name of defending the Kurdish people. How noble…

The truth is, none of these agents of despair have any concern for the Kurds, and they will do nothing to save them until it’s too late. Later, they will act, but not to save any remaining Kurds. A Kurdish genocide is only a means to an end. And here we start to see the entire reason for the Syrian crisis unfold…

Lie #5: The Kurds Are Not Our Concern, Or, They Are “Getting What They Deserve”

On the flip side of the paradigm, I’m seeing the Trump cult making some outlandish arguments (as they always do) to rationalize the president’s bizarre and abrupt policy actions. The first argument claims that “it’s about time” that a president “stood against the deep state” and ended US involvement in Syria, and we should let Turkey and the Kurds sort out their own mess. I would repeat the fact that Trump is not leaving Syria or any other nation in the Middle East with a US military presence. He is only pulling troops back and leaving the door open to Turkish attack.

I would also point out once again that it is not “their mess”, it is a mess created by western governments including the US.

The Kurds lost tens of thousands of fighters battling ISIS, and the Turkish incursion into Syria seems to be taking advantage of their weakened defenses. This is a situation the US created. The Turkish invasion is a DIRECT result of the destabilization of Syria, and Trump’s pullback from the northern border was the icing on the cake.  It acted as a form of permission by the US that Turkey could now do whatever they wanted (for a time).

I am also seeing the narrative that the Kurds are “getting what they deserve”.

Some argue that the Kurds were stupid for trusting the US government as an ally and now they are reaping the consequences. This is hardly a valid assertion. Punishing the victims of a con for being conned is not the American way. At least, it shouldn’t be the American way. Also, the Kurds are not the real target of this disinfo campaign; conservatives are the target, and they’re falling right into the trap.  I believe this is a propaganda narrative designed to make conservatives sound like sociopaths.

Trump’s claim that the Kurds were “not really our allies” as they “did not help us during WWII”, and that they were only defending their homes rather than supporting our efforts against ISIS shows an insane (but calculated) disinformation campaign designed to make conservatives look monstrous and untrustworthy. If Trump was really against the “deep state” he would not try to tarnish the image of our only legitimate allies in the region.

Finally, another narrative being spread around is that because the Kurds have a socialist form of governance, they deserve to be wiped out. I would remind the people making this claim that the Kurds are not trying to force their political ideologies on anyone, and Turkey’s Erdogen is a classic totalitarian who has tightened his grip on the nation using every trick in the book, including a false flag coup attempt. Socialists or not, the Kurds don’t deserve ethnic cleansing.

Yes, the US should not have been in Syria in the first place, but then again, we ARE in Syria, and it doesn’t look like we’re leaving, so if we’re going to be there we might as well do some good with our presence and act as a deterrent to an obvious Turkish attempt to erase the Kurds (our allies who fought a terrorist threat the US GOVERNMENT FUNDED) from the area.   Of course, it’s too late for that now…

What Is Really Going On In Syria?

If you’re not buying the mainstream narrative, you might be wondering why Donald Trump would suddenly abandon the Syrian border allowing Turkey to invade? You also might be wondering why he would then immediately threaten to “crush” Turkey with economic sanctions and place “thousands of US troops” on the ground if his goal was to end US involvement in Syria? The answer is in the macro-picture. That is to say, we have to ask the most important of all questions – Who benefits?

As I’ve mentioned in previous articles, geopolitical events are being exploited by the globalist establishment as distraction and cover for their controlled demolition of the economy. They need scapegoats for the implosion of the Everything Bubble, an implosion they started in 2018 with liquidity tightening policies that has now accelerated into a full-blown financial crisis.  The Turkish invasion of Syria may be the pinnacle distraction event.

With engineered chaos in Syria, Trump’s globalist handlers can achieve a historic level of chaos while avoiding direct culpability.  What do we get when we combine all the elements listed above along with lies on both sides of the political paradigm? Well, we get a rationale for war.  We also get yet another event which makes Trump look like a bumbling villain and conservatives look like fools or soulless robots.

By extension, any tensions with Turkey suggest the beginning of the end for NATO. As I predicted in January of 2019, it appears that Turkey, a key component of the western alliance, is about to exit. This furthers the globalist goal of the deterioration of the west; the decline of the old world order making way for their “new world order” in which Eastern powers will play a larger role in conjunction with certain European elements. This is a dynamic globalists like George Soros have publicly and proudly discussed in the past.

The Kurds may also be a direct target of the globalist agenda.  In a declassified CIA document titled ‘The Kurdish Minority Problem’, the agency indicated that the establishment has seen the Kurds as an unknown factor (which they don’t like) that is fiercely independent (which they really don’t like) as far back as the 1940’s.  The CIA suggests that the Kurds are an uncontrolled element that could make establishment goals in the region difficult to achieve.

In the 1970’s the US manipulated the Kurds into actions against Iraq, which was amassing forces against the Shah of Iran and threatening to invade Kurdish occupied lands.  Once the Shah was removed from power by Iranian revolt, the US abandoned support for the Kurds.  The Iraqi government used the opportunity to attempt genocide against them using chemical weapons sold to them by the US government.  History does indeed seem to repeat.

I suggest that because the Kurds are a tribal force of millions that might oppose the globalist agenda in the Middle East, they may have been slated for erasure, and this latest event is merely one of a long series of events designed to kill off the Kurds.  Or, at the very least, killing the Kurds is a bonus for the establishment.

Beyond the Kurdish issue, a renewed Syrian crisis and EU opposition to Erdogen could lead to another flood of Muslim migrants into Europe. The last time this happened it sent the EU into an economic and political tailspin. It also opens the door to more fear in Europe and provides extra cover for a financial crash there.

And, ultimately, the Turkish invasion provides a perfect excuse to draw a number of opposing camps into a single place in close proximity, The possibilities for the globalists are endless. The Kurds are turning to Assad for aid and protection from Turkey. Iran is a military ally of Assad. Russia is still heavily involved in the area, and so is the US and Israel. I think anyone with any intelligence can see where this is headed.

If the globalists are successful in turning Syria into the center of the world by encouraging a Turkish invasion with a US troop pull back from the border, they would be killing multiple birds with one stone.

They get a renewed rationale for wider US military involvement within the year.  They get increased economic uncertainty as major powers fight over the dynamics of the region.  They get a scapegoat for the crash of the Everything Bubble as the potential for wider economic or kinetic war rises.  They get a scapegoat in Donald Trump and his conservative supporters, who will not only take the blame for the economic crisis, but also any tragedy that befalls the Kurds.  And finally, they get a rationale for the end of NATO, which would be the next step in ending the old western world order.

This clears the path for the introduction of a fully global and completely centralized new world order; a world without economic or national borders in which the elites govern openly rather than from behind the curtain.

One “mistake” (or false flag) could ignite a conflagration between the nations involved. This is why the EU, the Russians, the Israelis and Trump all suddenly care so much about the Kurdish plight. They CREATED the Kurdish plight, and now they are going to use it to turn Syria into a massive powder keg. Syria is an artificially manufactured “linchpin”, as DARPA would call it. It is designed to provide catastrophe while maintaining plausible deniability for the establishment. Trump’s actions in Syria may seem random, but they make perfect sense when we understand that he is serving a greater agenda. The US “withdrawal” is not a withdrawal, it is a prelude to a bigger conflict which benefits the globalist cabal.

*  *  *

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TURKEY/USA/SYRIA
USA strikes its own abandoned ammo storage so Turkey could not use it
(zerohedge)

US Launched Airstrikes On Its Abandoned Ammo Storage & Command Center In Syria

In what appears a final major parting shot as the United States continues its rapid draw down from Syria, the Pentagon has revealed it conducted an airstrike on a munitions storage bunker at a US base on Wednesday to “reduce the facility’s military usefulness” after invading Turkish forces threatened it.

An official US coalition statement identified the strike on a US military compound located between Kobani and Ain Issa near the Turkish border, specifically at the sprawling Lafarge Cement Factory, which had served as a de facto anti-ISIS coalition command center for the last couple years of the war since it had been wrested from Islamic State terrorists.

 

Fire at Ras al-Ayn, Syria, caused by bombardment by Turkish forces this week. Image source: AFP

The military described that a pair of F-15 jets “successfully” conducted the targeting of the ammo storage site, destroying what the Pentagon wanted to ensure didn’t get left behind, calling it a “pre-planned precision airstrike” before Turkish-backed fighters could take control.

This also included HQ facilities such as “latrines, tents and other parts of the Syria headquarters” which the US didn’t want utilized by hostile forces.

It was part of the “show of force” against nearby Turkish-backed groups, which had been described in reports Wednesday as having come “too close” amid the ‘deliberate’ draw down of US forces.

 

Satellite image of the aftermath at the site, via Syria Live Map.

“On Oct. 16, after all Coalition personnel and essential tactical equipment departed, two Coalition F-15Es successfully conducted a pre-planned precision airstrike at the Lafarge Cement Factory to destroy an ammunition cache, and reduce the facility’s military usefulness,” coalition spokesman US Army Col. Myles Caggins said.

Lafarge factory before the war, and even for the first few years into the conflict, had been Syria’s largest cement factory, owned and operated by a French company.

Joshua Landis

@joshua_landis

The US destruction of the cement factory as a parting shot of its involvement in Syria is a sad coda on its role in this sordid affair.

Photo is of the ISIS jihadis who took the factory in Sept 2014 from one of their videos

View image on Twitter

Defense officials further said the US ensured no other forces were in the vicinity when operation occurred, given potential they would have mistaken it for an attack on their positions.

The US-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) had also set fire to their part of the base just ahead of the airstrikes, according to reports, in what appeared a highly coordinated attempt to make sure it’s no longer usable as a military post.

The base at Lafarge had also been central to the Pentagon’s so-called ‘train-and-equip’ program for the Syrian Kurdish fighters, who have since struck a deal with the Syrian government to repel advancing Turkish forces together.

END

Turkey/USA

Pence gets an icy reception meeting Erdogan

(zerohedge)

Pence Gets Icy Reception As He Presses Erdogan For Syria Ceasefire

Visible tension pervaded the icy photo opp during Thursday’s meeting between Vice President Mike Pence and Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara — a meeting which the latter initially rejected, saying he would only meet with Trump, amid a White House initiative to push for a ceasefire in northern Syria.

The Pence-Pompeo-Erdogan meeting, which reports say lasted for about 90 minutes, which was significantly “longer than planned,” also came after Trump’s strange “don’t be a fool” letter to Erdogan was made public, which Turkish officials say Erdogan threw in the trash.

Ragıp Soylu

@ragipsoylu

More pics from Pence, Erdogan meeting.

STILL NOT HAPPY

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

It was further less than 24 hours after Trump seemed to downplay Turkey’s invasion against US-backed Kurdish forces in Syria, saying the fight was over land that “has nothing to do with us.”

Ragıp Soylu

@ragipsoylu

VIDEO from Erdogan, Pence meeting

Pence and Erdogan are stiff.

“Thanks for seeing me” Pence says.

Ambassador Jeffrey addresses Erdogan in Turkish

Embedded video

The president told reporters in the Oval Office Wednesday, “If Turkey goes into Syria, that’s between Turkey and Syria,” and added, “It’s not between Turkey and the United States.”

Jake Sherman

@JakeSherman

Here is ⁦@SecPompeo⁩ and ⁦@VP⁩ and erdogan. A US official tell us pence asked ⁦@trpresidency⁩ twice to allow media in. We were allowed in — no questions allowed — for about 45 seconds.

View image on Twitter

All of this means that the US delegation went to Ankara with perhaps significantly less leverage (also considering Erdogan isn’t dealing with Trump directly); however, also after the White House authorized sanctions on Turkey this week, vowing that more could come.

The US has demanded that Erdogan immediately halt his ‘Operation Peace Spring’ — to which Erdogan responded this week he’ll pursue the Turkish ‘safe zone’ in northern Syria even without international backing or support of allies.

A Turkish official told Reuters of Trump’s now viral letter, which apparently wasn’t reviewed or proofed by his staff: “The letter Trump sent did not have the impact he expected in Turkey because it had nothing to take seriously.”

“What is clear is that Turkey does not want a terrorist organization on its border and the operation will not stop because of the reaction that has been coming.”

developing…

END
Iran claims that it has evidence that the oil tanker attack was done by a coalition of Israel, Saudi Arabia and the USA
(Geiger,Oil Price .com)

Iran Claims To Have Video Evidence Of Oil Tanker Attacks

Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,

Iran has claimed that it has footage of last week’s attack on its oil tanker while off the Saudi Arabian Jeddah port, and it proves that the attacks were carried out by Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, according to Mehr news agency, who quoted Abolfazl Hassan Beigi, Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission member.

This evidence, Hassan Beigi said, will be provided to the UN and Security Council.

“Saudi Arabia and the U.S. are trying to put the blame on the ISIL [Islamic State] or the Taliban for the attack, but the documents dismiss such a notion as no ISIL or Taliban terrorists are present in the Red Sea,” Hassan Beigi said, adding that both ISIS and the Taliban were created and sponsored by Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani on Tuesday, in his first media conference in over a year, that the attack on the tanker would not go unpunished, adding that it was “carried out by a government” rather than an individual.

Rouhani stopped short of naming that state actor, however.

“If a country thinks that it can create instability in the region without getting a response, that would be a sheer mistake,” Rouhani said.

The Iranian tanker, the Sabiti, was attacked last Friday in the Red Sea, damaging the vessel and causing oil to spill into the water. The Sabiti belongs to the National Iranian Oil Company.

The attack on the Iranian oil tanker follows the September 14 attack on Saudi Aramco’s oil infrastructure that took offline nearly 6 million bpd of production. Tensions in the Middle East have been flaring up as the United States continues to sanction Iran’s oil industry for noncompliance with the nuclear deal.

6.Global Issues

Michael Every on the changing IMF policy and on the new Brexit proposal which still has Northern Ireland upset. They will still be on Eu regulations despite England leaving.

(zerohedge)

Oops: IMF Admits Policy It Was Pushing For Years Has Led World To Edge Of Disaster

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Lower for loooonger

The institution known for being a staunch supporter of easy monetary policy has just realized that things are getting tricky.

As the IMF holds its annual meetings in Washington this week, Thomas Adrian, it’s Financial Counselor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets department, discussed the latest Global Financial Stability Report, carrying the ominous title “Lower for Longer.” Although the institution still believes that with low interest rates “[…] financial conditions have eased, helping contain downside risks and support global growth”it is also increasingly concerned that such conditions have “encouraged investors to take more risks in a quest to achieve their return targetswith “valuations stretched” in some important markets and economies. In particular the IMF sees growing vulnerabilities in the shadow banking sector (non-bank financials), which includes structured finance vehicles, asset managers and finance companies; with vulnerability levels having reached similar levels seen at the height of the global financial crisis. “The search for yield […] has led them to take on riskier and less-liquid securities. These exposures may act as amplifiers to shocks”Mr. Adrian said. But corporate debt, with almost 40% being at risk of default in the eight economies the IMF studied, is also a growing headache.

Unsurprisingly, the response by policy makers should, according to the IMF, not be to get rid of the policies that have caused these excesses in the first place, but to introduce new “macro-prudential tools” to mitigates vulnerabilities. Surely this would take away some of the sharp edges related to the problems highlighted above. But at the same time would it allow other ‘invisible’ imbalances under the radar of policy makers to continue to build up. It’s like putting an obese patient on a high-carb diet but forcing him to take pills to suppress the side effects. The long-term consequences remain unknown.

The IMF also advocates greater multilateral cooperation in several areas, including global (regulatory) reform. We would argue that against the current backdrop of (geo)political tensions between the main global players, better coordination seems rather fanciful. What we do know, however, is that central banks are still leap-frogging each other in easing their policy settings. About 70% of the world’s economies, weighted by GDP, have eased monetary policy, according to the Institution. The rate cut by the central bank of South Korea was the latest in this series, taking the Korean official bank rate to 1.25%, back to the historical low we saw in 2016-2017. The KRW weakened slightly despite the widely anticipated move.

Meanwhile there is no Brexit deal, yet. But the EU and the UK are getting closer and closer to a compromise. It was reported yesterday that a number of thorny issues have now been resolved. Northern Ireland will follow EU rules on tariffs and quotas and align with many of its regulations. This will require a regulatory and customs border to be drawn in the Irish Sea, and no major customs checks on the Irish island. If the UK then closes new trade deals with other countries at a later point in time, Northern Irish businesses would be eligible for a rebate. This deal would allow PM Johnson to boast that the entire country has left the EU, even though it could be easily argued that Northern Ireland remains de facto in the EU regulatory sphere.

The matter of consent is another key question. A very complex decision-making system has been proposed. Four years after the end of the transition period, so probably in 2025, the Stormont Assembly would be able to give its consent to continuing this special arrangement for another four years. If it then (or in 2029, 2033) decides not to, a two-year notice period would be granted to allow alternative arrangements to be put in place. This creates the risk of a hard border in the future. But if the Stormont Assembly were then to collapse during that period, the default would be that the existing arrangement would continue to apply.

There has been speculation that Johnson could make a sudden move to seal the deal this morning, but it remains highly unclear whether the new compromise will draw sufficient support in the UK parliament. This morning, the DUP has raised a series of objections to the tentative agreement, saying that “as it stands”, it could not support what is being proposed on customs and consent. These are the two most crucial parts in the new deal and the DUP sees this as a risk of a NI-only backstop that never ends. There is also a lack of clarity on how to deal with VAT, something Mr. Barnier also indicated yesterday.

The DUP only have 10 seats in Westminster, but the marginal importance of these seats is enormous. The government already doesn’t have a majority in Parliament and some of the Tory ERG members won’t be willing to vote for a deal that does not have the explicit backing of the DUP. So the arithmetic looks very difficult, if not impossible, even when Johnson manages to get some Labour-Leavers and Tory rebels to back his deal, as some of them are still very desperate to “get Brexit done”.

Today or tomorrow the European Council may still agree on a legal text, but there is a huge risk that it will then again be rejected by the UK MP’s. If there is no deal by Saturday that can find a majority in Parliament, the UK Prime Minister must ask the EU for an extension of Brexit. Boris Johnson, however, has previously said that he would rather die in a ditch than to comply with the Benn Act and ask for an extension. Well, he better starts digging then?

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1059 UP .0029 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.72 UP 0.039 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2774   UP   0.0047  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3177 DOWN .0028 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 29 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1105 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 1.35 POINTS OR 0.05% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 184.21 POINTS OR 0.69%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,76%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 184.21 POINTS OR 0.69%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.39 POINTS OR 0.05%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 767% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 21.06  POINTS OR 0.09%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1489.75

silver:$17.51-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.76% !!! UP 21 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.24 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 97.76 DOWN 24 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.18% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.15%  UP 4   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.23%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.89 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 66 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.41% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.39% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1129  UP   . 0054 or 54 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.52 DOWN .165 OR YEN UP 17  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2854 UP .0034 POUND UP 34  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 72 basis points to 1.3132

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0777    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0836  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8644 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.15%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.73 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.22 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.61 DOWN 39  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 8.12  0.20%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 15.16 POINTS OR .12%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 23.83 POINTS 1.03%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 46.70 POINTS or 0.50%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 52.42 POINTS OR 0.23%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 52.93 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 58.80 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    64.09  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.02 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 2 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.41 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  54.20//

 

 

BRENT :  59.92

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.75..UP ONE BASIS PT…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.24..UP ONE BASIS PT..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1123 ( UP 50   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.64 DOWN .038 (YEN UP 4 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.61 DOWN 39 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2869 UP 51  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8280

 

 

the Russian rouble 64.04   UP 0.07 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 7 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3140 UP 62 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0777  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0812 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.41%

 

The Dow closed UP 23.90 POINTS OR 0.09%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 32.67 POINTS OR 0.40%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.82 CLOSED UP .14

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.002%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Brexit-Bounce Fades As Short-Interest-Slump Signals Crash Concerns

Surprise!! After Q3’s “use it or lose it” spending spree sent US macro data soaring unilaterally, October has begun with a collapse…

Source: Bloomberg

A trade deal (or not)? Brexit deal (or not)? Turkey peace deal (or not)? But retail sales slump, industrial production tumbles, housing starts/permits plunge…

Chinese stocks were flat overnight, with small-cap/tech-heavy ChiNext the biggest loser on the week so far…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks ended lower, despite a surge on Brexit hopes…

Source: Bloomberg

US equities were mixed with Trannies and Small Caps best (squeezed) while S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq were all scrambling to hold gains…

 

Once again S&P 500 algos were focused on the 3,000 level…

 

Chaos in NFLX stock price…

 

SDC shareholders aren’t smiling now…

The VIX term structure has steepened dramatically in the last week…

Source: Bloomberg

Now at its steepest since Feb 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were uniformly higher by around 1bps on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

But there was some vol intraday…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite a lot of jawboning (and stocks within 1% of record highs), the market is still demanding a rate-cut in October…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar tumbled for the 3rd straight day (down 6 of last 7 days)…

Source: Bloomberg

Almost entirely erasing the year-to-date gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable chopped around all day on various Brexit headlines but ended higher…

Source: Bloomberg

The Turkish Lira was insanely volatile (stops run both ways) as Pence-Erdogan spoke and agreed a ceasefire…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were higher on the day, spiking early in European session…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin rallied back above $8,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Dollar weakness supported commodities across the board with Silver and Crude best on the day (but only PMs are higher on the week)…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite a huge crude build and record production, the algos decided it was time to panic-bid WTI up to a $54 handle…

Gold futures tagged $1500 but were unable to hold it…

 

And finally, the most recent surge in stocks since the start of October has been a major short-squeeze…

Source: Bloomberg

Which has plummeted overall short-interest to a critical level that has, in the past, led to crashes in stocks

Source: Bloomberg

 end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Again we have a huge liquidity problem as described by Lee Adler.  Today a monstrous 104 billion dollars of overnight repo.  But worse than that: the collateral rate is at 2.02% much higher than the Fed rate.  The problem: we have a huge shortage of dollars

(zerohedge)

Fed Injects $104.2BN Via Overnight, Term Repos One Day After Start Of “Not A QE”

One day after the repo market appeared to lock up again, when the Fed’s overnight repo operation was unexpectedly oversubscribed again, for the first time since September 25, moments ago – and one day after the Fed’s first “NOT A QE” Pomo in which the Fed bought $7.5BN in a 4.3x oversubscribed open-market liquidity injecting operation – the Fed announced it had accepted over $104 billion in collateral as part of today’s overnight and term repo operations.

Specifically, the Fed accepted $67.7BN and $5.7BN in Treasury and MBS securities as part of today’s overnight repo operation, which however topped out at $73.5BN, just shy of the maximum allotment of $75BN, sparing the Fed the humiliation of explaining why liquidity conditions remains beyond strained.

Yet coming one day after the Fed’s O/N repo operation was oversubscribed (at $80.35BN), the drop was hardly as substantial as one would expect at a time when the Fed is now permanently expanding its balance sheet, having started to monetize T-Bills yesterday. Indeed, as shown below this was only the second most securities pledged at the Fed since Sept 25.

Perhaps a reason for the slightly reduced liquidity need is that just minutes before the overnight Fed operation, the Fed also accepted $30.65BN in a 15-day term repo, which consisted of $18.15BN in TSYs and $12.5BN in MBS.

Yet the clearest indication that something remains ominously broken with the repo market, came earlier today when ICAP reported that the day’s first overnight general collateral repo traded at 2.04%/2.01%, both above the upper end of the Fed Fund rate corridor, and confirming that the liquidity shortage is persisting, which prompted us to note that

1) one day after an oversubscribed repo
2) one day after “Not A QE4” started
3) one day after a Fed president hinted strongly that a standing repo facility is coming

… the repo rate was still abnormally above fed funds as repo market remains broken and banks refuse to lend to each other.

What is most concerning is that this is taking place as the Fed is now permanently increasing reserves again, which then begs the question: just why are banks so scared of lending money to each other – now that JPM’s previously discussed reticence is also spreading to smaller banks – and choose to park their money with the Fed instead?  What do they know that we don’t.

 end
Hard data industrial production shrinks year over year for the first time since the Trump election
(zerohedge)

US Industrial Production Shrinks YoY For First Time Since Trump Elected

Following August’s surprise surge in industrial production, September saw a big disappointment with headline output dropping 0.4% MoM (twice as bad as the 0.2% drop expected).

And worse still, on a year-over-year basis, industrial production has shrunk for the first time since Trump’s election in Nov 2016

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, US manufacturing output contracted 0.5% MoM in September (worse than the 0.3% decline expected), likely depressed by an autoworkers’ strike at GM, sluggish global demand, and the trade war.

Source: Bloomberg

A 4.2% decline in output of vehicles and parts was the largest since January, the Fed said. Production of primary metals, machinery and plastics also fell in September.

But as the chart above shows, the trend was already weak ahead of the GM strike.

And finally, the Dow INDUSTRIAL average remains entirely decoupled from the economy’s INDUSTRIAL output…

Source: Bloomberg

The data corroborate other reports showing a fragile manufacturing sector. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s factory gauge remained subdued in October and the Institute for Supply Management’s index dropped to the lowest level since 2016.

end

Both housing starts and permits plunge in September

(zerohedge)

Housing Starts, Permits Plunge In September

Following the dramatic surge in Housing Starts and Permits in August, expectations were for a notable drop/reversion in September and both dropped significantly.

  • Housing Starts -9.4% MoM (+15.1% prior, -3.2% exp)
  • Building Permits -2.7% MoM (+8.2% prior, -5.3% exp)

Extremely noisy…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Year-over-year, both starts and permits saw growth slowdown with starts plunging from +8.4% to just +1.6% YoY…

 

Source: Bloomberg

The drop in starts was driven by a plunge in multifamily starts from 456K SAAR in August to 327K in Sept.

 

But the multifamily series has become extremely volatile…

 

Starts decreased across all four national regions, led by a 34.3% slump in the Northeast.

Groundbreakings for single-family properties grew at the fastest pace since January. That gain was offset by a 28.2% drop in new construction of apartment buildings and condominiums, a category that tends to be volatile.

 

The report reflects some cooling as starts pull back from the best pace since 2007 the prior month.

end
Soft data, Philly Fed mfg index falls again in October.
(Philly Fed/Market Watch)

Philly Fed manufacturing index stumbles in October

Oct 17, 2019 8:44 a.m. ET

Activity index falls to 5.6 from 12, below expectations

MarketWatch

The numbers: The Philadelphia Federal Reserve said Thursday its gauge of business activity fell to 5.6 in October from 12 in September. Economists polled by Econoday expected a 7.1 reading. Any reading above zero indicates improving conditions.

What happened: The barometers on new orders and shipments were mixed. The new orders gauge rose to 26.2 from 24.8 while shipments dipped to 18.9 from 26.4. Employment readings rose in the month.

The measure on six-month business outlook rebounded after a sharp drop in the prior month.

Big picture: A similar survey conducted by the New York Fed recently saw sentiment inch higher to 4 in October. The two regional reports get attention as leading indicators of the national ISM factory index.

Economists said firms in Philadelphia and New York are less sensitive to the China trade war than manufacturers in other regions.

In September, the ISM s manufacturing index fell to 47.8, the lowest level since June 2009, from 49.1 the prior month. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. The manufacturing sector is in recession, damaged by international trade tensions, weak global growth and a strong U.S. dollar.

-END-

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

My goodness, I left just in time: San Francisco is shaken by dozens of earthquakes with the first one measuring 4.7 on the Richter scale.

(Michael Snyder)

San Francisco Shaken By Dozens Of Earthquakes – Is A Major Seismic Event Coming?

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

Seismic activity in California appears to be heating up again.

Could it be possible that the swarm of earthquakes that has hit San Francisco over the past couple of days is a precursor to a larger seismic event?  The California coastline sits directly along the infamous “Ring of Fire”, and scientists assure us that it is just a matter of time before “the Big One” hits the state.  Of course most of the time when we talk about “the Big One”, most people immediately envision a geography-altering earthquake in southern California, and we have been warned repeatedly that such an event is coming someday.  However, northern California is quite vulnerable as well, and a repeat of the horrific 1906 San Francisco earthquake is definitely not out of the question.  Today, the real estate in the San Francisco Bay Area is some of the priciest in the entire nation, but much of that real estate could potentially be reduced to rubble in just a matter of moments.

Millions of Californians are literally living on a ticking time bomb, and at some point time will run out.

Late on Monday, a magnitude 4.5 earthquake in the Bay Area made headlines all over the nation

A magnitude 4.5 earthquake was felt widely in the San Francisco Bay Area at 10:33 p.m. Monday, with the epicenter in the Walnut Creek and Pleasant Hill areas.

Source: USGS

A quake of that size is definitely newsworthy, and it was immediately followed by more than two dozen aftershocks

Three foreshocks preceded the quake (the largest measuring 2.5) and 26 aftershocks followed, according to Keith Knudsen, deputy director of the USGS Earthquake Science Center in Menlo Park.

But the USGS assured us that there was only “a 2% chance” that we would see an aftershock greater than magnitude 4.5 over the next seven days…

The USGS said there was a 2% chance of one or more aftershocks larger than magnitude 4.5 over the next week, and as many as four aftershocks of magnitude 3 or higher. “The number of aftershocks will drop off over time, but a large aftershock can increase the numbers again, temporarily,” the USGS said in its aftershock forecast.

So what do you think happened next?

Yes, just a short while later the San Francisco Bay Area was hit by a magnitude 4.7 earthquake

magnitude 4.7 earthquake shook the ground in Salinas around 12:42 p.m. local time Tuesday, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. It came hours after a magnitude 4.5 quake hit the San Francisco Bay Area.

So what should we make of the fact that the USGS has been dead wrong in their forecasts time after time?

Later on, seismologist Lucy Jones insisted that the two large quakes were not related

According to Dr. Lucy Jones, a southern California seismologist, Tuesday’s quake is not connected to Monday’s quake in San Francisco.

And she knows that how?

The truth is that the behavior of earthquakes remains a great mystery for our top scientists, and they really can’t tell us what is going to happen in the future with any sort of accuracy whatsoever.

The “experts” would have us believe that massive quakes like the one that struck San Francisco in 1906 happen “about every 200 years”, but they don’t really know.

To a large degree, many believe that all of this talk about “earthquake intervals” is just a bunch of nonsense.

But what everyone agrees on is that it is just a matter of time before more giant earthquakes rattle the state.  The following description of the horrific 1906 earthquake comes from the official USGS website

The California earthquake of April 18, 1906 ranks as one of the most significant earthquakes of all time. Today, its importance comes more from the wealth of scientific knowledge derived from it than from its sheer size. Rupturing the northernmost 296 miles (477 kilometers) of the San Andreas fault from northwest of San Juan Bautista to the triple junction at Cape Mendocino, the earthquake confounded contemporary geologists with its large, horizontal displacements and great rupture length. Indeed, the significance of the fault and recognition of its large cumulative offset would not be fully appreciated until the advent of plate tectonics more than half a century later. Analysis of the 1906 displacements and strain in the surrounding crust led Reid (1910) to formulate his elastic-rebound theory of the earthquake source, which remains today the principal model of the earthquake cycle.

At almost precisely 5:12 a.m., local time, a foreshock occurred with sufficient force to be felt widely throughout the San Francisco Bay area. The great earthquake broke loose some 20 to 25 seconds later, with an epicenter near San Francisco. Violent shocks punctuated the strong shaking which lasted some 45 to 60 seconds. The earthquake was felt from southern Oregon to south of Los Angeles and inland as far as central Nevada. The highest Modified Mercalli Intensities (MMI’s) of VII to IX paralleled the length of the rupture, extending as far as 80 kilometers inland from the fault trace.

As our planet continues to become increasingly unstable, California will eventually be hit by much larger quakes than that.

Following the earthquakes that just struck San Francisco, some residents commented on social media that they had just gotten a preview of “the Big One”

One person, Evie, wrote on the social media site: “That was the biggest earthquake I’ve felt so far in California. Wow. A taste of what the ‘big one’ is going to be like. Pretty scary.”

Another local, Gary, said: “These earthquakes are becoming more frequent lately. We’re due for the big one and I feel like it’s coming.”

No, actually the quakes that just happened are not even worth comparing to what “the Big One” will be like someday.

According to the USGS, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake would release 2,818,382 as much energy as the magnitude 4.7 earthquake that we just witnessed.

So let’s not get carried away.

Overall, there have been more than 1,400 earthquakes in California and Nevada over the past seven days.  At this point, that is considered to be a “slow week” for the region.

Hopefully things will settle down and we won’t see any more significant quakes along the California coastline for a while.

But let there be no doubt that “the Big One” is rapidly approaching, and it is just a matter of time before it happens.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

A must read..

the truth behind Bolton and Fiona Hill and the deep state

(Tom Luongo)

John Bolton: Hero Of The Resistance Or Traitor?

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

John Bolton’s part of the story to impeach Trump has reached the end of the first act. The finale will be a doozy… for someone.

A report from the New York Times this morning on Fiona Hill’s testimony before Adam Schiff’s (D – Deep State) kangaroo court casts Bolton as the hero working against Trump’s obvious animus towards his political opponents.

Hill is Trump’s former adviser on Russia, a supremely connected Swamp dweller and Clintonista. Don’t take my word for it. Take Lee Stranahan’s.

𝙻𝚎𝚎 𝚂𝚝𝚛𝚊𝚗𝚊𝚑𝚊𝚗 ⏳

@stranahan

OK then, let’s talk a little about who Fiona Hill is and whose side she is on in a short THREAD. https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1183740261597360128 

The New York Times

@nytimes

Fiona Hill, President Trump’s former top Russia and Europe adviser, prepared to testify that she and other officials strongly objected to the removal of the ambassador to Ukraine, only to be disregarded https://nyti.ms/2MfeYlh

The thread traces Hill’s career back to the beginning and who she’s worked with. To call her and John Bolton reliable witnesses without an agenda would be pretty close to fiction.

Like Bolton, Hill is someone that should have never been anywhere near President Trump’s cabinet. They were both inserted to ensure that the flow of information to him was kept devoid of anything that would damage pre-existing policies, like fomenting a coup in Ukraine or atomizing Syria or getting to the bottom of the conspiracy to remove Trump from power.

So, she and Bolton, according to the New York Times, were deeply concerned by Trump empowering Rudy Guiliani and others to conduct an investigation outside of Bolton’s purview.

The testimony revealed in a powerful way just how divisive Mr. Giuliani’s efforts to extract damaging information about Democrats from Ukraine on President Trump’s behalf were within the White House. Ms. Hill, the senior director for European and Russian affairs, testified that Mr. Giuliani and his allies circumvented the usual national security process to run their own foreign policy efforts, leaving the president’s official advisers aware of the rogue operation yet powerless to stop it.

It’s clear Bolton didn’t like being out of the loop. And no matter how the Times spins this their recounting of the story can easily be read as a pair of operatives purposefully kept in the dark about what the President was doing because the President didn’t trust them…

…Not because he was engaged in anything illegal.

Bolton is now looking like the mastermind behind the entire impeachment process.  Marginalized within the Trump administration because Guiliani’s investigation was “a hand grenade who’s going to blow everybody up,” Bolton was reduced to running around through allies like Hill to find out how close Trump was to finding out just how dirty our hands are in Ukraine.

And how deep that rabbit hole goes.

Make no mistake, Bolton was placed in the White House to ensure continuity of policy in Ukraine on behalf of his PNAC allies and Israeli handlers on K Street. He clearly lost his mind when he realized Trump would find out the truth.

He also clearly lost his mind when Trump refused to go to war with Iran over a drone. All that work to maneuver Trump into a situation he couldn’t back out of, but then he does.

Nothing is more dangerous than an ideologue spurned.

And John Bolton is definitely an ideologue.

What’s sad about this farrago of futility is that by focusing on whether Trump can or cannot get impeached over this we’re missing the real story.

The president has staff who knowingly fed him bad information and contravened his edicts, clear acts of treason, on such a continual basis that he was forced to go outside the normal bureaucracy to get information leading directly to malfeasance within his government and that of his predecessor, Barack Obama.

By only trying to frame this as going after political opponents they are running the same script they ran on Richard Nixon. And the hypocrisy of it on the part of the Democrats and Neocons spurned by Trump is beyond comical.

The difference is is that, in this case, the corruption is already in plain sight thanks to Robert Mueller and his incompetent band of legal eagles.

The narrative that Trump is a Russian agent has already been destroyed.

Don’t you think a majority of the American electorate are confused as to why the people implicated in RussiaGate as having acted inappropriately haven’t been indicted?

And now those same people are telling us that Trump is the guilty one?

Moreover, the depth of Trump’s opposition is so pervasive that these same people will manipulate the court of public opinion to serve up a political impeachment for something that isn’t even a crime.

The media and the House Judiciary Committee are framing this as Bolton and Fiona Hill acting as patriots trying to stop a vindictive Trump from investigating a political opponent.

But we know that’s not the real story and no one outside of Gaslight Gulch will even give a crap. Rachel Maddow can smirk all she wants, Jeff Zucker can continue destroying what’s left of CNN’s ratings but it’s not a credible story no matter how you spin it.

What Bolton was keeping Trump from uncovering were all the connections in Ukraine which shaped not only the crimes regarding RussiaGate but also U.S. policy towards Ukraine going back to the beginning of Obama’s second term.

That information would “blow up” everything he and his allies had worked so hard to accomplish — the destruction of Ukraine and Syria, tearing up the INF treaty, expanding NATO’s reach to Russia’s western border, the destruction of Iran and the pursuit of the Zionist vision of Greater Israel.

Peak Neocon is here folks, even Pat Buchanan is recognizing it.

All of those things are what Bolton was referring to when he said that. Bolton may be a patriot and willing to compromise with people he hates to attack other people he hates more but this is a step too far. Those that can’t let go of a dream are eventually doomed by it.

This is why he’s been protecting Hillary and her crew in Ukraine.

The ends of putting Russia behind the short-range nuclear eight-ball were worth the means of letting Hillary, Obama, Clapper, Brennan, Comey, Browder and the rest get away with true High Crimes and Misdemeanors.

Because it’s pretty clear who the traitors are here. And, for all his faults, Trump isn’t one of them.

As I said before, under impeachment proceedings Trump is a guy with nothing left to lose. This is why he’s pulling back on Syria. This is why he’s making deals with Erdogan and Putin while cutting the Saudis mostly loose.

This is why Guiliani, for all of his faults, is going where he’s going. Whether he’s Trump ally for real or just another layer of Deep State cover is anyone’s guess.

But the level of cognitive dissonance to turn John Bolton the Devil into John Bolton Hero of the Resistance is truly a bridge too far.

And to try and do it on hearsay while while covering up the real story of pervasive corruption and collusion with a foreign power all through the DNC will ultimately land Bolton in the same place as Robert Mueller if not worse.

I remind Mr. Bolton of the old adage, when you go to kill the king you better not miss. The Resistance is pot-committed. Trump hasn’t even looked at his hole cards yet.

*  *  *

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this is something that we realized long ago: CNN’s decay
(zerohedge)

“It’s All Just A Bunch Of Bull*hit”: CNN Manager Laments Network’s Decay On Hidden Camera

In the third day undercover CNN footage obtained by an undercover insider for Project Veritas, Field Ops manager Patrick Davis painfully admits admits that the network he’s devoted his career to has become ‘just awful’ under the leadership of CEO Jeff Zucker.

…I hate seeing what we were and what we could be and what we’ve become. It’s just awful…I mean, we could be so much better than what we are… And the buck stops with him (Zucker),” said Davis, who has been with the network at least 15 years.

“I haven’t listened to a 9AM call in about 15 years. I just stopped,” he added. “Just, I can’t listen to it. It’s all bullshit. It’s all just a bunch of bullshit. And I wish that wasn’t the case.

“You learn it in journalism school, we’re supposed to be middle of the road,” Davis continues. “Now it’s just infotainment is all it’s become. There is no true media outlet.”

“Even though we’re totally left leaning … we don’t wanna admit it,” admits Davis.

 

James O’Keefe@JamesOKeefeIII

BREAKING: PART 3 – FIELD OPS MANAGER AT CNN: ZUCKER’S 9AM CALLS ARE ‘BULLSHIT;’ “WE’RE TOTALLY LEFT-LEANING…(BUT) WE DON’T WANT TO ADMIT IT”

FULL VIDEO: https://youtu.be/qbQwAQ0tDTQ

Embedded video

More quotes from CNN employees via Project Veritas

Scott Garber, Senior Field Engineer at CNN: We used to cover news. We used to go out and do stories…But Trump is more important.

Adia Jacobs, CNN Technical Operations Supervisor: When Zucker took over it wasn’t until Trump that we ended up being all Trump all the time.

Nick Neville, CNN Media Coordinator: He (Zucker) basically said f**k all the other stories.”

Mike Brevna, Floor Manager at CNN:It’s the Trump Network, dog. It’s like everything is all Trump…they not even thinking about anybody else. They sold themselves to the devil.” 

Gerald Sisnette, Field Production Supervisor at CNN: This is a story that’s not gonna go away…The only way this will go away is when he (Trump) dies. Hopefully soon.”

Undercover video reveals covering ‘conflict’ increases the network’s income (creating clicks) and CNN, under network President Jeff Zucker’s direction, has become the ‘all Trump all the time’ network.

Jeff Zucker, CNN President: “So, my point here is, I know there’s 7,000 impeachment stories that – Look, I am the one that’s saying we should just stay on impeachment, but when, you know, when a story of this magnitude comes up (referring to the story of alligators and snakes in a moat and shooting immigrants in the legs) and you can objectively say, you’re out of your mind. You should do it and say you’re out of your mind.

Christian Sierra, CNN Media Coordinator: …conflict is what sells, nobody wants to hear one-minute canned statements…Because conflict drives clicks…create clicks, get more money.”

Watch the full video below:

END
It looks like we are going to get impeachment of Trump and that will set up a big spectacle in the Senate.  The Republicans will then call witnesses including Strzok, Page, Biden and quite possibly Obama.
(zerohedge)

McConnell: Get Ready For Senate Impeachment Trial ‘As Soon As Thanksgiving’ 

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) told Republican Senators on Wednesday to prepare for an impeachment trial of President Trump as soon as Thanksgiving, according to the Boston Globe.

The announcement comes as House Democrats roll the dice on a second-hand claim from a CIA ‘whistleblower’ that President Trump pressured Ukraine’s president to investigate former VP Joe Biden – who the whistleblower worked for – and Biden’s son Hunter, who made $50,000 per month sitting on the board of a Ukrainian gas company his father helped when he pressured Ukraine’s president to fire the prosecutor investigating its owner.

During a July 25 phone call, Trump asked Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky to investigate a claim that a wealthy Ukrainian individual was involved in the alleged DNC server hack – and that Ukraine ‘has the server’, as well as corruption claims against the Bidens. While the Democrats are pointing to the request as inviting a foreign country to meddle in the 2020 election, the White House says they want to know what happened in 2016 – and is now claiming that the decision to withhold nearly $400 million in US military aid was linked to the request to investigate election meddling – not the Bidens.

Democrats are also investigating efforts by Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani and the US ambassador to the European Union, Gordon Sondland, to investigate Ukraine.

And while Trump will almost certainly be impeached by the Democrat-controlled House, the GOP-controlled Senate will be able to pick apart the entire affair.

In their closed-door weekly luncheon, McConnell gave a presentation about the impeachment process and fielded questions alongside his staff and Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, who was a manager for the 1998 impeachment of President Bill Clinton.

Impeachment is the first step to remove a president, with the House voting on formal charges and the Senate holding a trial in which it either convicts or acquits him. –Boston Globe

There’s sort of a planned expectation that it would be sometime around Thanksgiving, so you’d have basically Thanksgiving to Christmas — which would be wonderful because there’s no deadline in the world like the next break to motivate senators,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) following the meeting.

McConnell has previously said that if the House impeaches Trump, Senate rules would force him to begin a trial – one which could force the Bidens to testify.

Not only could Mr. Biden be forced to be in D.C. at a critical moment in the presidential campaign, but so could many of his chief rivals — the half-dozen senators also vying for Democrats’ presidential nomination, impeachment experts said.

For that matter, if the House chooses to impeach Mr. Trump on charges stemming from the special counsel’s Russia investigation, aides said it could open the door to witnesses such as fired FBI Agent Peter Strzok or even major figures from the Obama administration.

Mr. Trump could even be present for the entire spectacle. Experts said the Senate would have a hard time refusing him if he demanded to confront the witnesses against him. –Washington Times

On Wednesday, Michael McKinley – former senior adviser to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – testified that he resigned last week from his post of more than 25 years because he disapproved of using foreign policy to advance political interests.

“‘I was disturbed by the implication that foreign governments were being approached to procure negative information on political opponents,” said McKinley in his opening statement. “I was convinced that this would also have a serious impact on Foreign Service morale and the integrity of our work overseas.”

On Thursday White House acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney defended withholding military aid to Ukraine unless they investigated 2016 election meddling – and then said this, seemingly referring to McKinley’s statement:

Josh Campbell

@joshscampbell

After @jonkarl points out the White House’s explanation for its dealings with Ukraine was quid-pro-quo, the chief of staff replies: “We do that all that time with foreign policy.”

To those concerned about political influence in foreign policy, he says, “Get over it.”

Embedded video

Recall that the Obama administration – with Biden as the ‘point man’ – had a heavy hand in implementing Ukraine’s previous administration – which, as the White House is now arguing, justified withholding aid until they could assess the level of current corruption.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Trump on Wednesday refocused on the mysterious DNC server. “Where is the server? How come the FBI never got the server from the DNC? Where is the server? I wanna see the server.  The server they say is in Ukraine… Let’s see what’s on the server…  I want to find out more than anybody else… The media doesn’t want to see the server…”  https://twitter.com/DaveNYviii/status/1184499745999544322

 

WaPo’s @JaxAlemany: New talking points for House Dems from Pelosi’s office – Impeachment Inquiry

Key Words: National Security; Undermined Our Elections; Abuse of Power; No One is above the Law

https://twitter.com/JaxAlemany/status/1184221539480326146

 

The consensus from the media and pundits is that Biden had another poor debate performance.

 

CNN’s Van Jones: [Bernie Sanders] “had more energy and was more coherent than Biden” and he “just had a heart attack.”

 

WaPo: Winners: Warren, Sanders; Losers: Biden – He offered some odd figures on the middle-class costs of Medicare-for-all. He said “expidentially” instead of “exponentially.” He mixed up Iraq with Afghanistan. He said he never discussed his son’s Ukraine dealings with him, even though his son has said differently. And at the end of the debate, Biden said he didn’t mean to disrespect his opponents but that “I’m the only one on this stage who has actually gotten anything really big done.”…

    The question Warren won’t answer: Warren was given four chances to answer the question she has thus far refused to directly answer: Whether her Medicare-for-all proposal would increase taxes on the middle class…     https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/10/15/winners-losers-october-democratic-debate/?wpisrc=al_news__alert-politics–alert-national&wpmk=1

 

Fox News: Joe Biden stumbles over words during debate, references people ‘clipping coupons in the stock market’ [confusing stocks with bonds] “Why should someone who’s clipping coupons in the stock market may, in fact, pay a lower tax rate than someone who in fact is, like I said, a schoolteacher and a fireman…

    His answer was the latest apparent gaffe during his campaign. The gaffes appeared to have raised enough concerns that some allies of the former vice president reportedly suggested he scale back the number of events he did on the campaign trail…

https://www.foxnews.com/media/joe-biden-stumbles-words-coupons

 

All Eyes on Michael Bloomberg as Joe Biden Flops in Debate

Bloomberg has told associates that he is considering throwing his hat in the presidential ring if Biden drops out…   https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/10/16/all-eyes-on-michael-bloomberg-as-joe-biden-flops-in-debate/

 

Cash shortage hits Dem presidential field – Joe Biden, who ended September with less than half the cash on hand, $9 million, of any of his top rivals… [The big Dem money believes Joe is finished.]

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/16/2020-election-democrats-fundraising-spending-048210

 

Obama yesterday endorsed embattled Canadian PM Trudeau’s re-election.  He was silent on Joe.

 

@paulsperry_: Neither Biden nor his son are mentioned in State Department text messages obtained by Chairman Schiff and other House impeachers, much to their disappointment.  The “whistleblower” told Schiff & the IC IG that the “official” who relayed to him the substance of the phone call b/t Trump & Ukraine’s president was “visibly shaken” by what he overheard. Only, the whistleblower did not see the official; he spoke w/ him over the phone [Another WB lie]

      Dems circulating Dear Colleague letters on Hill misinforming members re call transcript, claiming Trump pressured Ukraine prez to investigate Biden “immediately” after Ukraine prez raised military aid, when in fact several mins transpired after he brought up buying Javelins

 

@JackPosobiec: “U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, Maria Yovanovitch, an Obama holdover, has told U.S. Embassy employees and Ukrainian officials that they need not pay attention to Trump since he is going to be impeached.”  3:48 PM · Mar 22, 2019

 

Trump fired Yovanovitch.  Last week, Dems and the MSM said her firing is an impeachable offense.  This week, Dems/MSM accused Trump of running a rogue foreign policy, abetted by Giuliani.  The president gets to set foreign policy.  It’s in the Constitution.

 

Top Diplomat Testified That Obama Admin, Not International Community, Orchestrated Ukraine Prosecutor’s Firing – The testimony of George Kent, a State Department official who works on the agency’s Ukraine portfolio: also testified that concerns about corruption within Burisma, where Hunter Biden inexplicably served as a highly paid board member for five years, were openly voiced long before Trump became president. According to Kent, he personally raised red flags about a 2016 initiative between the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and Burisma due to concerns the company was tied to government corruption in the country. Kent testified that USAID was gearing up for an event with Burisma that involved children, and that he felt uncomfortable seeing children used as photo op props for a company with a reputation for corruption and graft…

https://thefederalist.com/2019/10/16/top-diplomat-testified-that-obama-admin-not-international-community-orchestrated-ukraine-prosecutors-firing/

 

Career State Department Official George Kent Testifies in Impeachment Probe

Before taking his current post, Kent served as the deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv from 2015 to 2018, and as the senior anti-corruption coordinator in the State Department’s European Bureau from 2014 to 2015. One former U.S. official said Kent had been among the most vigilant officials within the State Department in reporting on corruption in Ukraine and in seeking to combat it.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/career-state-department-official-george-kent-testifies-in-impeachment-probe_3117281.html

 

Schiff pressed Volker to say Ukraine felt pressure from Trump

When Volker repeatedly declined to agree to Schiff’s characterization of events, Schiff said, “Ambassador, you’re making this much more complicated than it has to be.”…

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/schiff-pressed-volker-to-say-ukraine-felt-pressure-from-trump

 

Now we know why Schiff is conducting a secret Star Chamber.  Where is the outrage?

 

DC Pundits in Meltdown As Trump Declares Syria & Russia Hate ISIS “More Than Us”

Trump: “If Russia wants to get involved with Syria, that is up to them. They have a problem with Turkey… It’s not our border. We shouldn’t be losing lives over it.”… The president also said that Russia and the Syrian government “hate ISIS more than us”. He said “They can take care of ISIS” and explained.

    “Our soldiers are out of there, they’re totally safe” — Trump added, emphasizing his rationale for his recent controversial decision-making on Syria…

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/dc-pundits-meltdown-trump-declares-syria-russia-hate-isis-more-us

 

@AnnCoulter: Trump’s critics are right, he’s showing our allies they can no longer count on America. . . .to fight their wars, pay their bills, and protect their borders but not our own.

 

Trump has induced Democrats to join NeverTrump Neocons in the ‘war party’.

 

BBG @tictoc: @SenSchumer said he hopes @senatemajldr Mitch McConnell will cross the aisle to demand Trump to “reverse course” on his Syria policy

 

WaPo: House passes resolution [354-60] condemning Trump’s decision to withdraw U.S. military from northern Syria [What is the ghost of LBJ thinking now!!!]

 

‘Needs to Be Done’: Biden Calls for Returning More US Troops to Syria

https://dailycaller.com/2019/10/15/needs-to-be-done-biden-returning-us-troops-syria/

 

@ABC: Sen. Mitt Romney criticizes decision to pull troops from Syria. “Let’s not forget the reason why Turkey is doing what they’re doing is because of the decision taken by the administration.”

 

@DailyCaller: Senate Minority Leader @SenSchumer says that President @realDonaldTrump, during their meeting, called @SpeakerPelosi a “third rate politician” and said to them, referring to the situation with the Kurds, that “there are communists involved and you guys might like that.”

 

@ABC: He was insulting, particularly to the Speaker,” Schumer says following White House meeting with Pres. Trump.  “We were offended, deeply,” Steny Hoyer says. “Never have I seen a president treat so disrespectfully a coequal branch of the government.”   https://abcn.ws/2J0gebC

 

@SpeakerPelosi [contradicting Schumer]: I am deeply concerned that the White House has canceled an all-Member classified briefing on the dangerous situation the President has caused in Syria, denying the Congress its right to be informed as it makes decisions about our national security.

 

@henryrodgersdc: Schumer said Trump called Pelosi a “third rate politician” during a meeting at The WH. Minutes later, Pelosi corrected Schumer, saying Trump called her a “third-grade politician.”

 

Republicans House leader McCarthy said Pelosi made the critical meeting over Turkey political and stormed out of the meeting with Schumer and Hoyer.  Other Dems stayed and there was a productive meeting.  Did Pelosi & Schumer stage a media event that they could exploit to slam Trump?

 

@realDonaldTrump: The Do Nothing Democrats, Pelosi and Schumer stormed out of the Cabinet Room! Nervous Nancy’s unhinged meltdown! Picture: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1184597281808498688

   Nancy Pelosi needs help fastThere is either something wrong with her “upstairs,” or she just plain doesn’t like our great Country. She had a total meltdown in the White House today. It was very sad to watch. Pray for her, she is a very sick person!

 

Trump tweets photos of Pelosi’s ‘unhinged meltdown’ at Syria meeting   https://trib.al/jYPpT9h

 

WH Press Sec Steph Grisham: Trump was measured & decisive today.  Speaker Pelosi walking out was baffling but not surprising w NO intention of participating in a mtg on nat’l security. Dem “leadership” chose to storm out & whine to cameras, everyone else stayed to work on behalf of our country.

 

If Schumer, Pelosi, Graham, McConnell, and Romney want troops in Syria, they should take a vote for a war resolution.  This is junior-high civics.

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

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