OCT 18/ATTEMPTED RAID TODAY ENDED IN FAILURE//GOLD DOWN ONLY $3.25 TO $1490.75//SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TO $17.56//JPMORGAN ADDS TO ITS SILVER HOARD FOR THE 5TH STRAIGHT DAY//HUGE QUEUE JUMPING FOR GOLD AT THE COMEX TODAY//ANOTHER HUGE POMO (QE4) AS LIQUIDITY DRIES UP//

GOLD:$1490.75 DOWN $3.25(COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.56 DOWN 3 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

Gold : $1490.70

 

silver:  $17.56

 

COMEX DATA

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING   4/7

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,492.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/17/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 10/21/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 3
661 C JP MORGAN 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 7
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 7 7
MONTH TO DATE: 10,950

 

 

___________________________________________________________________________________

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT: 7 NOTICE(S) FOR 700 OZ (0.0217 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  10,950 NOTICES FOR 1,095,000 OZ  (34.059 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR OCT

 

 

175 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 875,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1235 for 6,175,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

 

 

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 7907 DOWN 160 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7939 DOWN 128

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE  SIZED 1194 CONTRACTS FROM 210,204 UP TO 211,398 WITH THE 17 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A LARGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

FOR SEPT 0,; DEC  955 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  955 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 955 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 955 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 4.77 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 17 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

6.680     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

YESTERDAY, A MINOR ATTEMPT BY THE BANKERS TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL AT THE SILVER COMEX….  OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR//BANKERS AGAIN USED HUGE COPIOUS NON BACKED PAPER IN THEIR UNSUCCESSFUL ENDEAVOUR TO WHACK SILVER’S PRICE (17 CENTS HIGHER).  OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED 2149 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR GOLD.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCT BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF OCT:

16,298 CONTRACTS (FOR 14 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 16,298 CONTRACTS) OR 81.49 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1164 CONTRACTS OR 5.82 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST:  81.49 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 11.64% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1721.22   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                               265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019   TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                                                 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1194, WITH THE 17 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 955 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 2149 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 955 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1194  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 17 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.59 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.057 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 151% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

 

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.78.  

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 6.680 MILLION OZ//   
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY SIZED 9,630 CONTRACTS, TO 620,519 ACCOMPANYING THE  $4.00 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING// YESTERDAY// /

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 6397 CONTRACTS:

OCT 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, DEC>  6397 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 620,519,,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,027 CONTRACTS: 9,630 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 6397 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 16,027 CONTRACTS OR 1,602,700 OZ OR 49.86 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $4.00 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT SMALL GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUGE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 49.86  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE . THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT : 91,490 CONTRACTS OR 9,149,000 oz OR 313.02 TONNES (14 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 6535 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 313.02 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 313.02/3550 x 100% TONNES =8.81% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     4948.47  TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                   642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                                                  174.900 MILLION OZ

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 9,630 DESPITE THE  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($4.00)) //.WE ALSO HAD  A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6,397 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6,397 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 16,027 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6392 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 9630 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 49.86 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF  DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $4.00 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we had:  7 notice(s) filed upon for 700 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.19  TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: 

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.919 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1194 CONTRACTS from 210,204 UP TO 211,398 AND CLOSER TO A  NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR OCT. 0; FOR DEC  955  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 955 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1194  CONTRACTS TO THE 955 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2149 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 10.74 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 6.680 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 17 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 955 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 39.19 POINTS OR 1.32%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 128.91 POINTS OR 0.48%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 40.82 POINTS OR 0.18%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .49%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0847 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0847 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0833 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

China

China Q3 GDP growth disappoints. This is trouble for the rest of the world.

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i(UK

Our resident expert on the Brexit situation claims that BoJo orchestrated an amazingly good deal…but there are constitutional issues that must be dealt with

(Mish Shedlock)

ii)The battle begins as we approach an historic vote tomorrow

(zerohedge)

iii)EU/USA

The USa imposes its tariffs on $7.5 billion of USA goods..and Europe vows retaliation

(zerohedge/Michael Every)

iv)

Draghi warns that European stocks are overvalued..and down goes stocks
(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/USA/SYRIA

That did not last long…the USA brokered ceasefire shattered by a new Turkish offensive

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

Russia is now ready to seize control of the world’s largest oil reserves, Venezuela’s PDVSA.  Then the big question:  what will become of USA based CITGO which is owned by PDVSA

(Irina Slav/OilPrice.com)

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Alasdair Macleod on money and the theory of exchange

(courtesy Alasdair Macleod)

ii)Is Bloomberg covering up for JPMorgan’s wrong doing?

(Pam and Russ Martens)/Wall Street on Parade)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

The second POMO was 480% oversubscribed indicating a total lack of liquidity and mistrusts from one bank to another

(zerohedge)

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

A Schiff staffer flew to Ukraine to meet with an impeachment witness, ambassador Bill Taylor

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 9630 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 620,884 ACCOMPANYING THE GAIN OF $4.00 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6397 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FOR OCT; 0 CONTRACTS: DEC: 6397   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6397 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 16,027 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6397 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 9630 COMEX CONTRACTS. 

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE AS IT ROSE BY $4.00. HOWEVER, JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH IN GAIN OF OUR TOTAL OI CONTRACTS, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE ENDEAVOUR TO FLEECE ANY UNSUSPECTING LONGS. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  16,392 CONTRACTS OR 1,639,200 OZ OR 50.98 TONNES.

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER.  This month is generally the poorest delivery month of the year as must players prefer to go straight to the big active delivery month of December. Strangely October will turn out to be a huge delivery month. Today we have 1011 contracts still standing for a GAIN of 22 contracts. Yesterday we had 149 notices served upon so we have another whopper of a gain of 171 contracts or an additional 11,700 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. We again have queue jumping by the bankers/official sector in their attempt to find physical metal on this side of the pond.

 

The next active delivery month after October is the non active contract month of November. Here we saw a GAIN of 196 contracts and thus the OI INCREASED to 1412.  The very big December contract month saw its oi RISE by 5983 contracts UP to 472,436.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 7 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  700 OZ. (0.0217 TONNES)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1194 CONTRACTS FROM 210,204 UP TO 211,398 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 17 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER.  HERE WE HAVE 276 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 41 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 48 CONTACTS SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 7 CONTRACTS OR 35,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH.  THE ALSO REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

AFTER OCTOBER WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND HERE  WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 1 CONTRACT TO STAND AT 476. THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER SEPT IS DECEMBER AND HERE THE OI RISES BY 852 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 157,466.

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 175 notice(s) filed for 875,000, OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 231,099  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  318,224  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

OCT 18/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
233.328 oz
Brinks
Delaware
includes 1 kilobar
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
7 notice(s)
 700 OZ
(0.0217 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1004 contracts
(100,400 oz)
3.122 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
10,950 notices
1,095,000 OZ
34.059 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else; 0  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 0  oz

 

very little gold arrives from outside/ Today  zero amount  arrived  

we had 2 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

i) out of Brinks  32.151 oz  (one kilobar)

ii) Out of Delaware:  201.177 oz

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 233.328  oz

 

FOR THE OCT 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 7 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 4 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,950) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT. (1011 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (7 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,195,400 OZ OR 37.18 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of OCT

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (10950 x 100 oz)  + (1011)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (7 x 100 oz )which equals 1,195,400 oz standing OR 37.18 TONNES in this  active delivery month of OCT.

We gained a strong 171 contracts OR 17100 ADDITIONAL OZ which queue jumped as our bankers //official sector were searching for badly needed physical on this side of the pond. There is no doubt that these guys need to put out fires springing up everywhere!!

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 35.696 TONNES OF REGISTERED

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 3 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:      5.4525 TONNES

 

AND NOW……………………………………………………………………………     OCT. 37.18 TONNES

 

 

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

FOR A SETTLEMENT YOU NEED A TRANSFER FROM THE DEALER (REGISTERED) ACCOUNT OVER TO AN ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT. FOR THE  ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD O TRANSACTIONS ON THIS FRONT IN SEPT 2 TRANSACTIONS FOR 2.6 TONNES.

IF WE ADD THE THREE DELIVERY MONTHS: 69.788

TONNES- 2.60 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT = 67.188 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 35.789 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

total registered or dealer gold:  1,150,634.308 oz or  35.789 tonnes 
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,186,281.706 oz 254.627 tonnes

IN THE LAST 36 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
OCT 18 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 925,479.657 oz
CNT
Brinks
HSBC
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,194,193.11 oz
CNT
JPMORGAN
No of oz served today (contracts)
175
CONTRACT(S)
(875,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
101 contracts
 505,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1235 contracts

6,175,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  595,021.570  oz…5th day in a row

ii)into CNT:  599,171.541 oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 158.9 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.55% of all official comex silver. (158.9 million/314.3 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  1,194,193.11  oz

 

we had 4 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

i) Out of CNT:  20,305.027 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 300,177.260 oz

iii) out of HSBC: 9975.800 oz

iv) out of Brinks  595,021.570 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total 925,459.657  oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

i) Out of CNT: 840,688.480 oz was adjusted out of the customer account of CNT and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

 

total dealer silver:  86.476 million

total dealer + customer silver:  314.3 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the OCT 2019. contract month is represented by 175 contract(s) FOR 875,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1235 x 5,000 oz = 6,175,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (276) and the number of notices served upon today 175 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 1235 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (276)- number of notices served upon today (175) x 5000 oz equals 6,680,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month. 

WE GAINED 7 contracts or an additional 35,000 oz of silver will stand at the comex as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards. For the past several weeks we have been witnessing queue jumping in both gold and silver.

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 175 notice(s) filed for 875,000 OZ for the OCT, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  46,430 CONTRACTS

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 64,749 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 64,749 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 323 million  OZ 46.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

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NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.65% ((OCT 18/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.70% to NAV (OCT 18/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.65%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.94 TRADING 14.42///DISCOUNT 3.47

 

 

 

 

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.19 TONNES

OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.19 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP $10.25 TODAY//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.66 TONNES

OCT 15//WITH GOLD DOWN$13.25 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 14/2019: WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 TODAY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.71 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.00 TODAY, A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921,71 TONNES

OCT.9//WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

OCT 8\WITH GOLD DOWN 35 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

0CT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN 7 DOLLARS//A BIG CHANGE //A DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES//

INVENTORY RISES TO 923.76 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $15.25 A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 920.83 TONNES

SEPT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $32.50: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.88 TONNES

SEPT 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 26//WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90 A HUGE  PAPER DEPOSIT OF:  16.42 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.94 TONNES

 

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.65 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN OUT OF THIS WORLD DEPOSIT OF 14.37 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 10.65 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.15 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 ON THE DAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.06 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.60 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.86 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.37 TONNES

 

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OCT 18/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 918.19 tonnes

 

 

*IN LAST 684 TRADING DAYS: 31.46 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 584 TRADING DAYS: A NET 135.68 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.919 MILLION OZ/?

OCT 17./WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.87 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 380.919 MILLION OZ//

OCT 16/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ//

OCT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.15 MILLION OZ//. INVENTORY RESTS AT 382.789 MILLION OZ

OCT 14/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ//

OCT 10/2016//WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.443 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 384.939 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS //NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 166,000 OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 383.496 MILLION OZ

OCT 1.2019 //WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.87 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 383.656 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 381.786 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25.//WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.338 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 377.811 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23.2019/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.473 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.502 MILLION OZ//

 

 

OCT 18/2019:

:

 

Inventory 380.919 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.97/ and libor 6 month duration 1.97

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – .00

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.90%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.99

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.09

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

IMF Warning: ‘World’s Financial System Is More Stretched, Unstable and Dangerous Than It Was On the Eve of the Lehman Crisis’

Source: The Telegraph

◆ The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has again warned that the world’s financial system is more stretched, unstable and dangerous than it was on the eve of the Lehman crisis

◆ Quantitative easing, zero percent interest rates and massive financial repression has pushed investors – and in the case of pension funds or life insurers, actually forced them – into taking on ever more risk

◆ Ambrose Evans-Pritchard analyses the IMF warning in The Telegraph and concludes that the IMF has presented us with a Gothic horror show and that “we have created a monster”

◆ The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has presented us with a another stark warning; It alas is being ignored by most of the world’s media and by most financial advisers and economists

◆ AEP’s important synopsis of the latest IMF warning can be read in The Telegraph here

Understand the Real Causes of the Coming Collapse
Listen to Goldnomics Podcast Here

NEWS & COMMENTARY

Gold ends at highest price in a week as investors weigh tentative Brexit pact

“Gold’s gains after an initial small sell off suggest that many market participants remain skeptical of this latest Brexit ‘deal’,” and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s ability to get both the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland and the UK parliament to agree to the deal,” said Mark O’Byrne, research director at GoldCore in Dublin, told MarketWatch.

Gold holds above $1,490 on weak Chinese data, Brexit prospects

Saturday’s Brexit vote will be ‘pretty close’: Labour’s McDonnell

Sterling turns lower as opposition grows to new Brexit deal

China says its economy grew 6% in the third quarter, slower than expected

Deep state board staff at the Fed has not been helpful for the economy

World is in a ‘great sag’ and echoes the 1930s – Dalio

GOLD PRICES (LBMA – USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)

17-Oct-19 1484.45 1492.65, 1151.64 1162.63 & 1336.60 1341.59
16-Oct-19 1482.55 1485.10, 1166.32 1155.85 & 1344.52 1343.27
15-Oct-19 1494.75 1487.80, 1183.69 1178.34 & 1357.08 1353.30
14-Oct-19 1494.20 1490.60, 1188.79 1182.94 & 1354.04 1352.12
11-Oct-19 1498.35 1479.15, 1197.93 1166.01 & 1359.90 1338.33
10-Oct-19 1508.20 1494.80, 1232.35 1222.75 & 1368.69 1356.38
09-Oct-19 1503.40 1507.25, 1228.43 1232.93 & 1369.00 1372.65
08-Oct-19 1500.00 1505.85, 1225.50 1233.14 & 1365.30 1372.28
07-Oct-19 1502.15 1501.25, 1221.40 1218.11 & 1369.36 1365.54
04-Oct-19 1509.50 1499.15, 1223.75 1220.01 & 1374.70 1366.78

SIGN UP FOR OUR AWARD WINNING MARKET UPDATES HERE

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

end

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Alasdair Macleod on money and the theory of exchange

(courtesy Alasdair Macleod)

Alasdair Macleod: Money and the theory of exchange

 Section: 

1:50p ET Thursday, October 17, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The “state theory of money” is useful for government, Goldmoney research director Alasdair Macleod writes today, but it does not cover the original and primary purpose of money — transactions between buyers and sellers. When the wave of money creation that is now frantically being assembled washes over the world, Macleod writes, people are likely to realize that they need a better means of exchange than depreciating government currencies and it won’t take them long to rediscover the monetary metals.

Macleod’s analysis is headlined “Money and the Theory of Exchange” and it’s posted at GoldMoney here:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/money-and-the-theo…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

iii) Other physical stories:

Is Bloomberg covering up for JPMorgan’s wrong doing?

(Pam and Russ Martens)/Wall Street on Parade)

Pam and Russ Martens: Is Bloomberg News covering up for JPM and other wrongdoers?

 Section: 

11:53a ET Thursday, October 17, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Pam and Russ Martens of Wall Street on Parade today present evidence that Bloomberg News has begun covering up for JPMorganChase and other wrongdoers on Wall Street. Their commentary is headlined “The Repo Crisis, Jamie Dimon, and the Bloomberg News Mystery” and it’s posted at Wall Street on Parade here:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/10/the-repo-crisis-jamie-dimon-and-t…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

The Repo Crisis, Jamie Dimon, and the Bloomberg News Mystery

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: October 17, 2019 ~

Billionaire Owner of Bloomberg News, Michael Bloomberg

Billionaire Owner of Bloomberg News, Michael Bloomberg

Academics and historians who attempt to compare the epic Wall Street crash of 2007- 2010 to the next one that’s inevitably coming won’t be able to count on publicly available articles from Bloomberg News. As we reported on Monday, critical articles by a top investigative reporter at Bloomberg News, Mark Pittman, that exposed the corrupt cronyism between Wall Street and the Federal Reserve have gone missing on the Internet.

Just this morning we located yet another key article from Bloomberg News that has just up and disappeared on the Internet. Put this 2008 Bloomberg headline in the Google search box with the quotes included and see what happens: “Citigroup Unravels as Reed Regrets Universal Model.”

Bloomberg News informed us that Pittman’s articles are still available on the Bloomberg terminal. That’s a market data and news terminal that hundreds of thousands of global bank traders around the world use daily. But at a cost of upwards of $20,000 or more per terminal per year, it’s not something that scholars or journalists are going to be able to afford.

This week, something else strangely went missing at Bloomberg News – a very essential part of something Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase,  said on his earnings call on Tuesday. Here’s a transcript from Seeking Alpha on what Dimon said about why his mega bank stood down from providing more assistance during the repo blowout on September 17 when overnight lending rates shot up to 10 percent and the Federal Reserve, for the first time since the financial crisis, became the lender of last resort in the overnight lending market. (The Fed has since that time continued to pump hundreds of billions of dollars a week into Wall Street trading firms.)

From the SeekingAlpha transcript:  (Dimon is speaking of his bank’s reserve account at the Federal Reserve):

“But now the cash in the account, which is still huge. It’s $120 billion in the morning, and it goes down to $60 billion during the course of the day and back to $120 billion at the end of the day. That cash, we believe, is required under resolution and recovery and liquidity stress testing. And therefore, we could not redeploy it into repo market, which we would’ve been happy to do.”

The Motley Fool reported the identical wording from the earnings call.

But when Bloomberg News reported Dimon’s remarks, it left out the part about JPMorgan’s reserve account at the Fed dropping down to $60 billion during the day. The article showed this for Dimon’s remarks:

“Now, the cash in the account, which is still huge, it’s $120 billion in the morning, that cash we believe is required under resolution and recovery and liquidity stress testing. And therefore, we could not redeploy it into the repo market, which we would have been happy to do.”

Why is it extremely relevant that JPMorgan Chase has gotten down to a cash reserve of just $60 billion during the trading day? Because Jamie Dimon has turned bragging about his bank’s “fortress balance sheet” into an art form and a $60 billion daytime cash cushion is a pretty darn skimpy safety net for a bank holding $1.6 trillion in deposits and $2.35 trillion in total assets, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, respectively.

On September 16, the day before repo rates blew out to 10 percent, they had already spiked to 5 percent from the typical 2 percent, showing a serious problem in liquidity. Something else newsworthy happened on September 16: a trading desk at JPMorgan Chase was charged with being a criminal enterprise by the U.S. Department of Justice and three of its precious metals traders were criminally indicted under RICO charges, a statute typically reserved for organized crime. Despite the puff pieces on Jamie Dimon that have run at Bloomberg News and Barron’s, the sad truth is that under Dimon’s tutelage, JPMorgan Chase has become a three-count felon and its traders are now being charged under RICO.

The billionaire owner of the publishing and data empire that includes Bloomberg News is a Wall Street veteran and, subsequently, the former Mayor of New York City, Michael Bloomberg. Forbes currently puts his wealth at a staggering $51.6 billion. The bulk of that wealth derives from the hundreds of thousands of those Bloomberg terminals sitting on thousands of trading desks at global banks like JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and even the Federal Reserve Bank of New York – where all of that low-cost money for Wall Street is being magically created with a push of an electronic button. (See The Official Video from the Federal Reserve on How It Creates Electronic Money.)

Bloomberg News has previously come under fire for spiking stories that may have been counter to the business interests of Michael Bloomberg and ridiculously cheering for Wall Street banks while they continued their serial abuse of the public’s trust.

In 2016, Matt Winkler, Editor-in-Chief-Emeritus at Bloomberg, wrote a sycophantic piece titled “Stop Bashing Wall Street. Times Have Changed.” That was the year after JPMorgan Chase had admitted to its third felony charge and every major Wall Street bank was still involved in trillions of dollars in notional derivatives contracts. The same year, Michael Bloomberg showed very poor judgement in co-authoring an OpEd with Jamie Dimon, a man who should have been the target of investigative pieces by his reporters for presiding over three felony counts and $36 billion in fines for serial crimes against the investing public.

In 2015 Politico’s Luke O’Brien deeply reported the details of a Bloomberg News article that was critical on China and appeared to have been spiked to preserve business sales of the Bloomberg terminal in that country.

And then there are those strange associations with felony counts or fines at Wall Street banks and those Bloomberg terminals. The chat rooms that facilitated the rigging of the Libor interest rate benchmark were conducted on Bloomberg terminals. According to Mark Pittman, the Bloomberg terminal had the capability of allowing hedge funds to find the worst dreck in the subprime arena, making it possible to short the instruments while hedge funds like John Paulson’s got big banks like Goldman Sachs to sell the other side of the deal to its unwitting investors.

During the Democratic debates earlier this week there was talk of revitalizing anti-trust in America to break up dangerous corporate concentrations of power. We need to expand that debate to breaking up media empires that have deep conflicts with Wall Street, the most corrupt industry in America.

END

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0847/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST  7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0834   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 39.19 POINTS OR 1.32%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 128.91 POINTS OR 0.48%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 40.82 POINTS OR 0.18%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.54/Euro RISES TO 1.1134

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.13/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.66/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 54.45 and Brent: 60.16

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.38%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 0.90% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.24%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.28: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.30

3k Gold at $1487.60 silver at: 17.47   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 15/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.97

3m oil into the 54 dollar handle for WTI and 60 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.66 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9882 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1003 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.38%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.77% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.25%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7833..

World Stocks Drop, Futures Tread Water After China Reports Worst GDP Growth In 30 Years

World stocks slipped and US equity futures were unchanged after China posted its weakest growth rate in 30 years, as Q3 GDP disappointed, printing a below-expectations 6.0%...

 

… while the dollar was set for its worst week in almost four months having been pummeled by pound and euro Brexit rallies.

As a result of the latest disappointing GDP print, Chinese stocks slumped as large banks and insurers weighed on the gauge, their losses accelerating in afternoon trade as the Shanghai Composite dropped 1.2%, with the CSI 300 Index posting its biggest decline this month led lower by information technology shares. Overall, Asian stocks slipped, snapping a five-day rising streak, with most markets in the region dropping, while India bucked the trend. The Topix dropped 0.1%, dragged by telecommunication giants. Japan’s key consumer prices rose at the slowest clip in more than two years in September, the latest sign of weakening inflation. India’s Sensex climbed 0.8%, set for its best week since May, as quarterly earnings reports added to investor optimism

European stocks rebounded from an early loss and were trading unchanged last, despite a sharp reverse in car shares after Renault plunged following the latest profit warning, while rival Volvo declined after saying it was preparing for more output cuts for next year. Yogurt giant Danone dropped after reducing its 2019 outlook.

 

Across the Atlantic, after fading Thursday’s modest move higher, US equity futures also rebounded after ended Thursday just 1% from an all time high,

 

Yet as the world careens to what now appears to be an unavoidable recession, largely driven by the ongoing collapse in China’s credit impulse which is now paralyzed as Beijing is simply unable to inject the amounts of debt needed to push its – and the global – economy higher…

 

… the spin quickly emerged to mitigate the latest dismal data: it could have been worse.

“You can’t get away from the fact that China is slowing, but it’s not slowing more than we thought,” said Michael Metcalfe, head of global macro at State Street Global Markets . “We know that Q4 is going to be a soft patch, but to a degree policymakers are ahead of this, so as long as we don’t have an escalation of the trade war now I think markets can handle it.”

See, everything’s ok. They got this.

Or maybe not: as Bloomberg notes, investors are seeking a fresh stimulus for equities as the weekend approaches, even though US earnings so far have been relatively upbeat, after Morgan Stanley bucked concerns about weak growth.

“With investors pricing in Boris Johnson’s inability to get his Brexit deal passed through the House of Commons, and the slowing activity data out of China this morning, there’s probably less likelihood of another leg higher coming for the S&P to set a new record today,” Aneeka Gupta, associate research director at asset manager WisdomTree in London, said in an interview. “The companies reporting earnings don’t look big enough to change global sentiment.”

So as futures treaded water and were looking for a catalyst for another leg higher, treasuries ticked lower with 10Y yield rising to 1.77%, while most sovereign bonds fell across Europe. German Bunds yields were trading around -0.40%, the highest since early August; the Bund yield is now up 16 bps since Irish and British leaders said on Oct. 10 they saw a path to a Brexit deal, which boosted risk appetite and weakened demand for safe-haven assets like bonds; meanwhile the yield on Greek 10Y bonds fell to a new all time low of 1.31%.

In currencies, sterling pushed higher again after initially dropping to 1.2840, rising as high as 1.9020 before again fading, having previously scored its best six-day streak in near 30 years on Thursday after Britain and the EU sealed a new Brexit deal. Doubts about whether the deal will be approved in the British parliament were still sky high, though, with swathes of lawmakers, who are either reluctant about Brexit or worried the deal is not a clean enough break, due to debate the deal in a rare Saturday sitting.

“Whatever was agreed last night with the EU still has to go through the British parliament… the uncertainty surrounding that still hasn’t changed one iota,” said James McGlew, executive director of corporate stockbroking at Argonaut.

Elsewhere, the euro rested at $1.1125 , not far from $1.1140, its highest since Aug. 26. The dollar remained weak too having seen this week’s weak retail sales data and more U.S. interest rate cut talk contribute to its biggest weekly slide since June. The lira jumped after Turkey and the U.S. agreed to a temporary cease-fire plan for Syria.

In geopolitics, the Kurdish-led SDF accused Turkey forces of targeting both civilian and military areas in Ras al ain. Meanwhile, House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Democratic Leader Schumer said the US-Turkey agreement seriously undermines credibility of US foreign policy and that the House will pass a bipartisan sanctions package on Turkey next week. US Secretary of State Pompeo says he had a productive meeting with Israeli PM Netenyahu, where they talked about countering Iranian influence in the region. Finally, Japan has decided to dispatch its self-defence troops to the Strait of Hormuz, according to Asahi.

In commodities, oil fell on the China data, with Brent crude easing 0.52% to $59.60 and U.S. crude dropping 0.19% to $53.83. “The (China) GDP print has weighed on short-term sentiment and we have seen regional stock markets and oil contracts edge lower because of that,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst for Asia Pacific at brokerage OANDA. While crude demand growth tends to track economic growth trends, but Halley said China’s need for oil would not recede any time soon. Underlining that view, Chinese official data released on Friday showed robust refinery throughput in September, rising 9.4% from a year earlier to 56.49 million tonnes, on increases from new refineries and some independent refiners resuming operations after maintenance. Gold dipped to $1,488 per ounce.

Looking at the day ahead, investors will be focused on Fed Vice Chair Clarida’s comments on the economic outlook and monetary policy. As a warm up to that we’ll also hear from the Fed’s Kaplan and George before. The BoE’s Carney and Cunliffe are also due to speak in Washington this evening around the big IMF summit. Meanwhile it’s very quiet for data releases with the September leading index in the US this afternoon the only print of any note. Coca-Cola and Schlumberger release earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,996.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 392.33
  • MXAP down 0.2% to 159.69
  • MXAPJ down 0.2% to 514.12
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 22,492.68
  • Topix down 0.1% to 1,621.99
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 26,719.58
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.3% to 2,938.14
  • Sensex up 0.7% to 39,328.60
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 6,649.68
  • Kospi down 0.8% to 2,060.69
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.4 bps to -0.394%
  • Euro up 0.04% to $1.1130
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.7 bps to 0.549%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to 0.244%
  • Brent futures up 0.3% to $60.08/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,488.88
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.58

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Johnson is battling to sell his new Brexit deal to skeptical members of the U.K. Parliament ahead of a crucial vote on Saturday. The prime minister has no majority in the House of Commons but needs to convince his own Conservatives, as well as opposition politicians, to back the divorce accord he struck with the EU on Thursday. If Johnson secures Parliamentary backing for his Brexit deal with a smooth transition, then interest-rate hikes are on the table for the Bank of England, according to Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden
  • China’s economic growth slowed in the third quarter amid weak demand at home and as the trade war with the U.S. drags on exports. Gross domestic product rose 6% in the July-September period from a year ago, the slowest pace since the early 1990s and weaker than the consensus forecast of 6.1%
  • Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn called for a second referendum, saying in Brussels that Boris Johnson’s deal — which he described as a “sell-out” — was worse than that put forward by May. Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, said her Scottish Nationalist Party will vote against the deal as well, complaining that it creates too great a separation from the EU
  • Turkey agreed to a temporary pause of military operations in Syria that could be extended if Kurdish fighters formerly allied with America leave the border region, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence announced after a hastily arranged visit to Ankara. The “immediate” cease-fire will last 120 hours
  • Interest rate cuts are supporting Australia’s economy and housing market, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe said. “I don’t think it’s the right assumption to make that we are going to have a lot more work to do to get inflation back to target and growth back to trend,” he said adding negative interest rates are unlikely
  • Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet on Friday approved draft legislation to impose tougher rules on foreign investment in stocks related to national security despite opposition from market participants
  • Mick Mulvaney set out to offer an impassioned defense of President Trump’s dealings with Ukraine, but he may have only made matters worse for his boss — and himself
  • The lira jumped to its strongest level in almost two weeks after the U.S. agreed not to impose any further sanctions on Turkey as part of a temporary cease-fire deal in Syria struck between Ankara and Washington on Thursday

Asian equity markets traded cautiously after the rally from the Brexit deal breakthrough petered out and as participants mulled over mixed Chinese data including GDP which printed at its weakest in nearly 3 decades. ASX 200 (-0.5%) underperformed with Consumer Staples and Tech frontrunning the broad declines across its sectors, while Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) edged a fresh YTD high as it benefitted from recent currency outflows as well as reports South Korea is willing to enter discussions to settle bilateral tensions with Japan on forced-labour issues. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.3%) were indecisive and eventually deteriorated following a flurry of tier-1 data releases from China which showed its economic growth slowed to the weakest pace since 1992, although Q/Q and YTD GDP figures matched analysts’ forecasts, while Industrial Production surpassed estimates. Finally, 10yr JGBs were relatively flat after a rebound from yesterday’s late selling pressure in which prices briefly tested 154.00 to the downside, while demand subdued as Japanese stocks remained afloat and with today’s BoJ Rinban operations at a relatively tepid JPY 150bln in the long and super-long end.

Top Asian News

  • Turkish Markets Rally as Erdogan Clinches Syria Deal With U.S.
  • WhatsApp Protests Erupt in Lebanon as Economic Crisis Deepens

 

Top European News

  • BOE’s Ramsden Says Smooth Brexit Puts Rate Hikes on the Table
  • French Border Blocked as Catalan Protesters Begin Strike
  • LSE CFO to Retire Once Bourse Completes Refinitiv Takeover
  • After Hemorrhaging $100 Billion, Europe Stages a Comeback

 

In FX, the sterling remains relatively strong, but in much more sedate trade awaiting the fate of the latest Brexit deal at the hands of MPs tomorrow, with the Parliamentary vote expected to be very tight. However, despite ongoing DUP opposition and little sign that the coalition party will be won round, Cable is nudging higher within 1.2840-1.2920 confines and Eur/Gbp remains depressed between 0.8660-15 parameters. For the record, option break-even pricing is around 2 big figures and the loftiest since the 2016 EU referendum, though this could be deemed quite conservative given even bigger swings in the Pound seen of late.

  • NZD/AUD – It’s been nip and tuck down under for the most part this week, but the Kiwi has overtaken the Aussie in wake of mixed Chinese data overnight, as Nzd/Usd breaches 0.6350 and the Aud/Nzd cross reverses further from post-Aussie labour report peaks just shy of 1.0800 through 1.0750. Nevertheless, Aud/Usd is consolidating gains above 0.6800 amidst general Greenback weakness with the DXY hovering around 97.500 ahead of the final pre-October FOMC Fed speakers and following mostly sub-consensus US data and surveys in the run up.
  • EUR/CAD/CHF/JPY – All narrowly mixed against the Buck, as the single currency maintains 1.1100+ status and in bullish mode alongside Cable, eyeing yesterday’s circa 1.1140 high that coincides with the 100 DMA and is close to a Fib retracement level. Meanwhile, the Loonie is sitting tight in a 1.3130-45 band, while the safe-haven Franc and Yen roam either side of 0.9875 and 108.60 respectively.
  • NOK/SEK – In contrast to the Antipodean Dollar dovetailing noted above, clear divergence has been more apparent in Scandinavia where Norway’s Crown is extending declines to new record lows vs the Euro and losing more ground relative to its Swedish peer. Thursday’s seemingly poor jobs data from Sweden has been largely shrugged aside due to sub-standard elements of the figures collated, while it remains a close call whether the Riksbank retains its tightening bias and/or the Norges Bank reaffirms and on hold stance after September’s 25 bp hike.
  • EM – Although rallies or recoveries against the Dollar are trending across the region, Usd/Try has reversed further than most other pairs (to circa 5.7500 at one stage) on the back of sheer Lira relief that the US has put sanctions on hold in acknowledgement of the 5-day ceasefire in Northern Syria forged with Turkey.

In commodities, crude prices are drifting higher, although there is a lack of fresh fundamental drivers. ING note that factors possibly contributing to yesterday’s WTI (post-DoE) rise were inventory draws across all the other refined products. The key driver behind the draws seen across the products, argues the bank, was seasonal refinery turnarounds, with refinery run rates falling by 2.6 percentage points over the week to average 83.1%, the lowest level since September 2017. Looking ahead, the UK Parliament’s vote on PM Johnson’s new Brexit deal is likely the most notable weekend risk factor, albeit the docket includes a slew of Fed voters on US economy ahead of the Fed blackout period. Elsewhere, in metals, Gold prices have steadily declining on Friday morning, despite lower equities and the downbeat Chinese data. On which note, Copper prices remain under pressure, as data provided further evidence of a slowdown in its biggest market, China. Desks are citing the slowdown as more evidence of the negative effect of the US/China trade war on global growth. However, this week’s constructive tone on the state of US/China trade negotiations from both sides, combined with the agreement on a Brexit deal by the EU and UK has helped to cushion losses. Meanwhile, this week Dalian iron ore futures have suffered from one its largest weekly declines in two months. Analysts point to tightening restrictions on Chinese steel production over air quality issues and, more broadly, the slowing global demand for Chinese steel and iron ore.

US Event Calendar

  • Oct. 18-Oct. 21: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $83.0b, prior $119.1b
  • 10am: Leading Index, est. 0.0%, prior 0.0%

Central Banks

  • 9am: Fed’s Kaplan Speaks in Washington
  • 10:05am: Fed’s George Speaks at Fed Energy and Economy Conference
  • 11:30am: Fed’s Clarida Speaks on Economy and Policy Outlook

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’m looking after the children on my own tomorrow and I’m trying to assess how keen they’ll be to have the World Cup Rugby on the telly in the background in the morning and the Parliament channel on as their primary entertainment in the afternoon. I’m not sure whether they’ll be more screaming in front of the telly or within it.

Although tomorrow’s U.K. Parliamentary vote is a monumental occasion for the U.K. and Europe, DB have argued this week that the actual signing of the agreement (finalised yesterday) was always going to more important over the medium term than whether it passes tomorrow. We became bullish on the pound after the U.K./Irish meeting last week but this call was at risk if a deal didn’t materialise. It was clearly in the balance until the news yesterday. The reason we think that tomorrow’s vote is less important to the pound than the striking of the deal itself is that all the major UK parties now support either a second referendum which is unlikely to have no deal on the ballot paper (Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP), or a concrete deal with the EU (Conservatives). See DB’s Oliver Harvey latest piece On Brexit here .

Markets were a bit more nervous than we were yesterday and the initial euphoria that we witnessed as the deal headlines broke all but evaporated as the DUP negative stance quickly became apparent and made the parliamentary math for tomorrow’s vote a lot more difficult. Most respected sources I’ve seen over the last 12 hours suggest Mr Johnson will be 0-20 short with momentum slightly going in his favour as time progresses. He still might have a few rabbits up his sleeve to win friends and foes (workers rights?) over but it’s going to need a Herculean effort to get it over the line. As we said last week, the best case scenario for Mr Johnson is that the EU say it’s this deal or no deal. This would mean that those most opposed to no deal would essentially be voting for such an outcome if they rejected the deal tomorrow. A big irony. However I suspect the EU won’t want to take this hard line option. I suspect they’ll keep it vague about whether they’ll grant an extension or not before the vote to try to encourage the swing voters to back the agreement out of fear they won’t extend. But nothing beyond that. There could also be an amendment voted on that ensures that if the deal fails, the Benn Act is watertight. This might encourage a few of the Tories who recently lost the whip to vote in favour.

The big question though is if the deal is not ratified tomorrow, what happens next. A general election in November appears most likely especially as well sourced journalists suggested yesterday that those desperate for a second referendum have decided not to try to amend the bill tomorrow to attach one. This might suggest they don’t have the votes for it. The PM could request an extension to A50 from the EU and table a motion under the Fixed Term Parliament Act to hold an election in November. If opposition parties refused to vote for an election, he could resign and instruct his cabinet to do the same. The political pressure to hold such an election would be high, as a caretaker government formed under these circumstances would be seen as politically illegitimate. It’s worth noting that the Conservatives have polled better since Johnson became PM, and a snap ComRes poll last night shows that the public supports the deal by a 40% to 31% margin, with 29% of respondents unsure. The initial public reaction to ex-PM May’s deal was relatively negative. Importantly, only one scenario would reintroduce the risk of a no deal Brexit – that of the Conservatives forming a minority government with the support of the Brexit Party/DUP. What will therefore be interesting is the opinion polls over the next few days if he loses the vote. Will he be blamed for not leaving on October 31st and see support leaking to the Brexit Party?

So expect headlines aplenty over the next 24/48 hours. Speaking of headlines it’s worth jumping straight to Asia this morning where we’ve had some important data with China’s Q3 GDP printing at +6.0% yoy a touch below expectations of +6.1% yoy, marking the slowest pace of expansion since the early 1990s. However, in details, the contribution of consumption to GDP growth increased to 60.5% from 55.3% in the previous quarter while investment’s contribution slowed to 19.8% from 25.9%. National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Mao Shengyong said post the release that there is “ample space for monetary policy,” with the recent acceleration in consumer prices largely confined to commodities and especially pork prices –- which should start returning to a “normal” range. There was also hints of some consumption stimulus as they said “there is room and potentials for China to boost auto sales”.

We also got a slew of other economic data for China with September industrial production printing at +5.8% yoy (vs. +4.9% yoy expected), retail sales expanding in line with consensus at +7.8% yoy, while YtD fixed asset investments came in at +5.4% yoy (vs. 5.5% yoy expected). The surveyed jobless rate remained at 5.2%. In other data releases, Japan’s September CPI, core CPI and core-core CPI all printed in line with consensus at +0.2% yoy, +0.3% yoy and +0.5% yoy respectively.

Asian markets are trading largely lower this morning on the weaker Chinese growth data with Chinese bourses leading the declines. The CSI (-0.65% ), Shanghai Comp (-0.59%) and Shenzhen Comp (-0.45%) are all down. The Hang Seng (-0.09%) and Kospi (-0.47%) are also lower while the Nikkei (+0.33%) is up but has erased part of its early gains. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P are down –0.17% while yields on 10y USTs are down -1.4bps.

Meanwhile Sterling is trading c. -0.30% this morning at $1.2853. That follows a 1.88% intraday range yesterday which saw the pound bottom out at $1.275 and top out at $1.299. For context the last time it went above $1.300 was back on May 13. Unsurprisingly there were big swings across other UK assets. For example 10y Gilts traded as high as 0.788% (+7.9bps) before closing -3.6bps lower at 0.677%. Similarly Bunds traded at -0.335% before closing at -0.408% and Treasuries at 1.797% before closing at 1.754%. The Brexit story has certainly made us appreciate how much risk premium there is in Bunds at the moment as they have been very sensitive to this newsflow over the past couple of weeks.

As for equities, last night the S&P 500 ended with a +0.28% gain after paring a big mover higher above 3,000 at the open with health care and industrials leading at the expense of tech. The NASDAQ finished +0.40% and DOW +0.09%. Earnings helped, especially Netflix (+2.47%) and Morgan Stanley (+1.54), though they did both retreat from their pre-open highs, by -7.98% and -3.10% respectively. In Europe the STOXX 600 closed -0.10% after being up as much as +0.86% while the FTSE 100 ended +0.20%. There wasn’t much to report in credit, though oil experienced some volatility after a mixed set of inventories data. Headline crude stockpiles rose 9.3mn barrels, more than forecast, but distillate and gasoline inventories were drawn down by more than expected. Ultimately Brent crude ended 0.81% higher.

Away from Brexit, the data in the US was a mixed bag, with industrial production falling -0.4% in September, worse than expected even with a slight upward revision to the prior months. Headline housing starts were also weaker than forecast, at 1.26mn versus an expected 1.32mn, though the miss was mostly driven by the volatile multi-family home series. The more forward-looking and important series, building permits, rose more than expected at 1.39mn. Elsewhere, the Philadelphia Fed’s business survey fell to 5.6 from 12.0, but it still remains a strong outlier compared to other regional surveys at 58.7 on an ISM-adjusted basis.

The Fedspeak calendar was light, with Chicago’s Evans and Governor Bowman both speaking at “Fed listens” events, but neither shed new light on their policy views. Evans reiterated his dovish rhetoric and his concern over low inflation, while Bowman did not discuss the economic outlook at all. The market continues to almost completely price in a rate cut for the Oct 30 meeting, with an 88% chance currently implied by futures.

In other US policy news, the evolving chances for US sanctions on Turkey caused a roundtrip in the lira. First, it weakened -0.77% after Senator Lindsey Graham announced that he will push for financial sanctions which would bar US residents from buying Turkish assets, including sovereign debt. It then completely reversed to trade +1.24% stronger when the Trump administration announced that it had reached a ceasefire deal to suspend hostilities between Turkey and the Kurds in northern Syria. Later, Senator Graham announced that he would still push “full steam ahead” to pass his sanctions bill, but the lira nevertheless held its gains, ending +1.00% stronger versus the dollar.

Finally to the day ahead, which other than the obvious Brexit developments, will likely to be focused on Fed Vice Chair Clarida’s comments at 4.30pm BST on the economic outlook and monetary policy. As a warm up to that we’ll also hear from the Fed’s Kaplan and George before. The BoE’s Carney and Cunliffe are also due to speak in Washington this evening around the big IMF summit. Meanwhile it’s very quiet for data releases with the September leading index in the US this afternoon the only print of any note. Coca-Cola and Schlumberger release earnings.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 39.19 POINTS OR 1.32%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 128.91 POINTS OR 0.48%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 40.82 POINTS OR 0.18%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .49%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0847 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0847 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0833 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

China

China Q3 GDP growth disappoints. This is trouble for the rest of the world.

(zerohedge)

China Q3 GDP Growth Disappoints, Slides To New Record Low

It’s that time of the month again… when China drops all its heavy-hitting macro-economic data (goal-seeked or not – allegedly) with expectations for slowing industrial production and overall economic growth (but a bounce in retail sales).

Recent aggregate macro data has been disappointing as China’s credit impulse (despite every effort) has failed to inspire…

Source: Bloomberg

 

The other main figures we had before today were the two manufacturing PMI readings, one of which showed some clear improvement, and the other showed continued deceleration; and both exports and imports contracted, in a clear hit from the trade war. The 8.5% slide in imports was particularly worrying. Passenger car sales have slid for 14 months

And of course, don’t forget that consumer price inflation is roaring thanks to piggy-driven food-flation

Source: Bloomberg

The point being, no matter how ‘bad’ tonight’s China data is, a broad-based RRR-cut stimulus package is not high on the CCP’s agenda as Xi would prefer the social unrest in Hong Kong does not spread to the ruralities of the mainland as food-shortages spark chaos.

So, let’s see just how good or bad things are…

  • China GDP YoY +6.0% YoY MISS (+6.2% prior, +6.1% exp)
  • China Industrial Production YoY +5.6% BEAT (+5.6% prior, +5.5% exp)
  • China Retail Sales YoY +7.8% MEET (+7.5% prior, +7.8% exp)
  • China Fixed Asset Investment YoY +5.4% MISS (+5.5% prior, +5.5% exp)
  • China Property Investment YoY +10.5% (+10.5% prior)
  • China Surveyed Jobless Rate 5.2% (5.2% prior)

Graphically…

Source: Bloomberg

The Chinese goalseek-o-tron appears out-of-order tonight, when moments ago Beijing reported that China’s Q3 GDP rose just 6.0% YoY, below the 6.1% consensus had expected – and the lowest since ‘modern’ records began 27 years ago in 1992, dipping below even the financial crisis low of 6.4%.

Source: Bloomberg

The initial reaction in markets was unsurprising – US equity futures rallied! because bad news is good news, right…

Perhaps the machines should glance at the inflation chart above before getting all hot and bothered.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

Our resident expert on the Brexit situation claims that BoJo orchestrated an amazingly good deal…but there are constitutional issues that must be dealt with

(Mish Shedlock)

An “Amazingly Good” Brexit Deal But A Constitutional Challenge Looms

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

A deal has been reached. Jean-Claude Juncker opposes an extension. A constitutional challenge to the deal is underway.

Juncker Does Not Back an Extension

European Commission President and the EU have reached a deal. European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker opposes and extension. That is not his call but it is what I expected..

In the video, Juncker says he is happy for a deal but sad to see the UK go.

Reasonable Deal

Andrea Jenkyns MP

@andreajenkyns

Boris deal sounds better than the WA. End free movement, end ECJ supremacy over UK law, backstop ditched, & can do free trade agreements. I want to read the detail before making up my mind. But well done Boris for getting this far & doing what others said was impossible

Those who say this is May’s deal warmed over are simply wrong.

Constitutional Challenge and Other Details

The Guardian Live Blog discusses a constitutional challenge, DUP opposition, and other details.

Jean-Claude Juncker has tried to help sell the new Brexit deal in the face of opposition from the Democratic Unionist party by pouring doubt on a further Brexit extension in the event of it being rejected.

Juncker said he was “ruling out” a prolongation, although the issue is solely the remit of the heads of state and government. “If we have a deal, we have a deal and there is no need for prolongation,” he added.

Constitutional Challenge

Campaigning anti-Brexit QC Jolyon Maugham has now lodged his petition at the court of session in Edinburgh, which essentially tries to ban parliament from debating the new Brexit deal, on the basis that it is illegal, and which he anticipates will be heard tomorrow.

Maugham believes that the deal contravenes s55 of the Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018, which states that it is “unlawful for Her Majesty’s government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain”.

With the detail of Boris Johnson’s new deal still emerging, lawyers insist that s55 is “crystal clear” and that any form of differentiated deal for Northern Ireland will contravene it.

Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, has already cleared time for an emergency hearing in the court of session at noon on Monday 21 October, where he could issue court orders forcing Johnson to send a letter to the EU asking for an extension to article 50 until 31 January as per the Benn Act.

Boost to Johnson

norman smith

@BBCNormanS

Folks point out that decision on Brexit extension not down to @JunckerEU but a EU council decision. True….but I think he knew exactly what he was saying and its a big help for Team Johnson.

Johnson Likely Has the Votes

Craig Oliver@CraigOliver100

I suspect @BorisJohnson and his team think they have the numbers to pass the deal without the DUP – but even if they don’t, they get to run a populist election campaign, which should be enough. But it’s so volatile a change of just a few points could be disastrous.

Sir Oliver Letwin will back deal

Sir Oliver Letwin, who had the Conservative whip withdrawn over his rebellion on a no-deal Brexit vote, has said he will back the Prime Minister’s deal on Saturday, calling it “admirable”

No Deal Says DUP

These arrangements will become the settled position in these areas for Northern Ireland. This drives a coach and horses through the professed sanctity of the Belfast agreement.

For all of these reasons it is our view that these arrangements would not be in Northern Ireland’s long-term interests. Saturday’s vote in parliament on the proposals will only be the start of a long process to get any withdrawal agreement bill through the House of Commons.

Another Referendum?

I think it is unlikely, but how would it turn out?

Eurointellience frames it this way:

for those who are still holding out for a second referendum, and who believe that it could easily be won: the problem with most of the polls is that they confound a person’s position on Brexit – Remain vs Leave – with how they would vote in a second referendum. We know a lot of Remainers who believe that the first referendum results needs to be respected, and who would vote no in a second referendum.

A ComRes poll for Channel 5 news produced a more granular survey, and came up with a 50-42 split in favour Leave under a concrete 2nd referendum setting.

When they asked the question whether the 2016 referendum results should be honoured, the response was 54% in favour, and 32% against. It is one poll only – and the numbers are probably going to swing backwards and forwards. But we should be under no illusion that public opinion on Brexit has shifted since the referendum. We see no signs of that.

All’s Well That Ends Well

Luke Baker

@BakerLuke

As the EU summit got underway, Boris Johnson went around the table greeting each leader in turn. He laughed and joked with Merkel and Macron, and hugged Luxembourg’s Xavier Bettel, who had made fun of Johnson for not attending a news conference. All’s well that ends well?

Except nothing has ended.

I suspect all the MPs who lost Tory party membership will regain the whip (membership) if they vote for the deal. That makes passage more likely, but not guaranteed.

There are about 22 Labour MPs who want Brexit and that would likely be enough to offset the 9 DUP votes. This is my guess, Eurointelligence thinks passage falls short.

If it does pass, legal challenges loom. And Benn is likely to modify the legislation requiring Johnson to seek an extension if it doesn’t pass.

Final Irony Coming Up?

One possibility is that if the legal challenge wins, a hard Brexit might happen, which Johnson could blame on Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the Remainers.

Boris Johnson needs to swing about 30 vote for his Brexit deal to pass, and that is my expectation even though some insist it will not pass without DUP.

Telegraph Number Crunch shows that is not necessarily the case.

My comments in brackets.

Mr Johnson has a deficit of 58 votes to overcome from when Mrs May’s Withdrawal Agreement was defeated for a third time.

Although the new deal has yet to be properly scrutinised, it is unlikely that he’ll lose many of the 286 MPs that voted for a deal in that third meaningful vote. This would leave Mr Johnson with the task of winning a net 30 extra MPs over to his cause.

1: The ERG and the “Spartans” [28 possible]

The European Research Group (ERG) consists of around 80 eurosceptic Conservatives who were vocal in their opposition to Theresa May’s deal. Most of them voted against it on the first two occasions but for it on the third.

A smaller subset of this group – 28 “Spartans”, including Steve Baker – refused to back Mrs May’s deal when their other colleagues caved-in.

While he can’t get the 30 extra MPs he needs from this camp, there are clear signs that a large number of them may be open to backing his deal.

2: The expelled Tories [4 possible]

Last month Mr Johnson expelled 21 Conservatives from the party after they opposed the government by voting along with Labour and the other opposition parties to remove a no-deal Brexit option from the table.

Just four of this number actually opposed Mrs May’s deal at the third time of asking, with the remaining 17 best classed as anti-no dealers rather than ardent remainers.

This means they should be persuadable when it comes to supporting any deal that Boris Johnson is able to secure – although there are no guarantees yet.

3: Labour rebels [50 possible, 19 likely]

This is the group that will, in all likelihood decide whether or not Boris Johnson passes his Brexit deal. Even with the support of all the expelled Tories and the ERG the numbers might not be there – especially if the DUP aren’t on board.

Luckily for Mr Johnson there have been consistent rumblings from the likes of Stephen Kinnock – a Labour MP representing a Leave constituency – that they would support a Conservative Brexit deal.

It didn’t happen under Theresa May – when only five Labour MPs rebelled against their party leader – but there is a sense that it could be different this time around.

Earlier this month, 19 Labour MPs signed a letter to the EU asking them to agree a deal with Boris Johnson so that they could vote for it, while last month Caroline Flint suggested that up to 50 Labour MPs might back a deal.

While 50 might be on the high side, 19 Labour rebels would in all likelihood be enough to swing the numbers in Mr Johnson’s favour.

It means that there could well be enough votes available for a Brexit deal to be agreed by parliament on Saturday. But it will be tight.

Free Vote?

The margin of victory or defeat will likely come down to whether or not Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn will expel any Labour MP who votes for the deal.

If Corbyn grants a free vote, or even a 1-line Whip, it could pass with a huge margin.

My Expectation If DUP On Board

  • 27 Spartans
  • 19 Labour MPs minimum
  • 10 DUP

My Expectation If DUP Not On Board

  • 22 Spartans
  • 10 Labour MPs on a free vote and possibly anyway

In either case, it appears the deal will pass, but if it is that close, perhaps it fails because a few of those who voted for May’s deal do not vote for this one.

But it is not even certain that DUP will vote against the deal. The EU will not revise the deal, but Johnson can likely add some sweeteners

With DUP on board, passage is a near certainty. If Corbyn offers a free vote or a one-line Whip it’s also likely to pass easily,

Tricks

One trick that Corbyn might pull is to allow a free vote on the deal, then demand it be put to a referendum. Such shenanigans would fail, and probably miserably.

Just Found This – Free Vote

Tom Rayner

@RaynerSkyNews

NEW: Depsite push back from some in Shadow Cabinet, I’m told Lavery/Trickett/Murphy have successfully pushed back against efforts for Labour to back 2nd ref amendments on Saturday. Means Corbyn’s claim today that such matters were “for next week” remains position for now.

Tom Rayner

@RaynerSkyNews

I also understand Jeremy Corbyn “promised” some leave-supporting Labour MPs that the whip would not be withdrawn in any circumstances on Saturday

Looks a little convoluted. Here is the rest of the chain:

Amazingly Good Deal

Daniel Hannan

@DanielJHannan

The EU agreement delivers:
🇬🇧Supremacy of British law
🚛Independent UK trade policy
💰No annual tribute to Brussels
🚜Control of farming and fishing
🤝Good relations with our EU neighbours
All MPs elected in 2017 on pro-Brexit manifestoes – Labour, Tory and DUP – should back it.

Hannan is a free market advocate. If he likes the deal, so do I.

With one hand tied behind his back, Johnson did amazingly well.

END
The battle begins as we approach an historic vote tomorrow
(zerohedge)

Johnson Struggles To Sell Brexit Deal To Parliament Ahead Of Historic Saturday Vote

Boris Johnson’s ‘Battle for Brexit’ has begun.

The stakes are high: For his plan to succeed, he needs both Parliament and the EU ministers to buy into the notion that it’s either this deal, or no deal. But as he tries to sell the deal, Johnson is discovering that more MPs share his concerns that Brexit might never get done, and that it’s time to put it to rest for good. Even though many in Parliament remain skeptical.

Once again, the DUP will leave another Tory prime minister hung out to dry by opting to vote against the deal. For Johnson, this must be an especially painful disappointment, since the DUP and its leader, Arlene Foster, had sent some signals that they would reluctantly back his ‘imperfect’ plan if he could sell it to Brussels.

EU ministers voted to unanimously back the deal yesterday after Jean-Claude Juncker had given it his blessing. Now, Johnson is turning his attention to an even greater obstacle: Parliament.

His predecessor, Theresa May, infamously tried – and failed – to pass her withdrawal agreement, which preserved the hated Irish Backstop, three times. Johnson only has one chance if he hopes to both take the UK out of the EU with a deal while avoiding another Article 50 delay. Because although French President Emmanuel Macron again made some noises about refusing to support another extension, few doubt that the EU would if Johnson was compelled, by law, to ask for one.

Passing the deal would require votes from at least six opposition MPs who aren’t already expected to support Johnson’s plan, which is why the PM will almost certainly spend the bulk of his time this weekend trying to drum up support for the deal instead of focusing on the EU Council summit in Brussels.

According to Bloomberg, a loss could unleash a political crisis as Johnson has repeatedly refused to say he would go along with asking for another delay on Oct. 31. However, any attempt to leave without a deal would face a legal challenge thanks to the Benn Act, a law passed by Parliament last month over Johnson’s objections. The law requires Johnson to ask for an extension if Parliament hasn’t voted for a withdrawal deal by end of the day Oct. 19 (hence, the historic Saturday vote this weekend. Parliament hasn’t sat on a weekend since the early 1980s at the outset of the Falklands War).

and he may have to allow his plans to be tested in a general election or even a second referendum. Per BBG, to win, Johnson needs to pick up roughly 61 votes from a pool of about 75 MPs who are believed to be persuadable. According to the Westminster rumor mill, the ‘Spartans’, the group of intransigent Tories who ultimately killed May’s deal, are falling in line, which is a critical win for Johnson.

Though many suspect that the DUP is simply trying to extort more public money for Northern Ireland in what may have described as a ‘bribe’. To be sure, there’s been no indication yet from Johnson that he would up the money. The party said in a letter published yesterday that it opposed the deal because it opposed any kind of customs barrier in the Irish Sea (Johnson’s plan cleverly evades the need for barriers and checks, but it would still create a new customs zone for the North).

However, the opposition now supports a ‘confirmatory referendum’, which many ‘remain’ ministers would prefer. Then again, this is just one more reason for those who voted in favor of Brexit to accept Johnson’s deal: If Labour wins the inevitable snap election, they could call that referendum.

end

EU/USA

The USa imposes its tariffs on $7.5 billion of USA goods..and Europe vows retaliation

(zerohedge/Michael Every)

US Imposes A Record $7.5 Billion In Tariffs On European Goods; Europe Vows Retaliation

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Deals Flying Around

The final quarter of 2019 is shaping up as a quarter of deals. A “phase-1” trade deal between the US and China is in the making, the US just agreed with Turkey on a ceasefire in Syria, and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson struck a last-minute deal with the EU yesterday. And the world’s just become a better place, right? Well, not so fast! Remember that the US-China trade deal is just “progress” in the eyes of China and it remains to be seen whether this leads to a signing ceremony at the APEC meeting in Chile next month, especially as the Trump administration doesn’t seem willing to roll back current tariffs, a key demand by China. Meanwhile, the US tariffs on USD7.5bn of European goods have just kicked in, and Cheese, wine, olives and many other European goods will be subject to a price hike; the French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said on the sidelines of the IMF annual meetings that “Europe is ready to retaliate, in the framework of course of the WTO.”

“We, Europeans, will take similar sanctions in a few months, maybe even harsher ones — within the framework of the WTO — to retaliate to these US sanctions,” Le Maire said in a radio interview earlier this week.

So back to the deals and the markets then. The ceasefire in Turkey appears to be just a pause in hostilities and has met with as much criticism as it has received hails. With the situation in that region of the world becoming more complicated by the day, it’s no surprise that financial markets are having a hard time in assessing whether this is good or bad, or really just doesn’t matter at all. Oil prices did move higher yesterday around the close of European business (nearest future for Brent +$1/bbl), whilst the Turkish lira rose sharply as the agreement between the US and Turkey took to the airwaves. TRY gained almost 2.5% against the dollar.

Meanwhile, European markets had to assess what is going on with “Brexit”. Both the Labour opposition, the SNP as well as the DUP were remarkably quick to describe the deal, announced by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Prime Minister Johnson, as “worse” than the previous deal struck between the EU and Theresa May. With reports showing that Johnson will lack the required votes to sail this deal through parliament on Saturday we are still up for a 48-hour roller coaster. Logic reasoning suggests Saturday’s vote will fail, but sentiment and Brexit fatigue may still play into the hands of Johnson, swaying sufficient MP’s to his side. In that sense, anything seems possible at this stage and that’s probably why the market’s reaction has been volatile but lethargic at the same time. Sterling did manage to maintain its upward momentum vis-à-vis the dollar but was largely unchanged against the euro, which itself gained 0.4% against the dollar yesterday as the Brexit deal progress was seen as being equally positive for Europe.

At the same time, the dollar was weighed down by economic news. US industrial production fell by a more-than-expected 0.4% in September partly undoing the (relatively sharp) gain in August. Whilst a GM strike during that month was singled out as contributing to the weakness, the trend obviously fits with a pattern of manufacturing weakness still spreading across the globe and onto other sectors of the economy. Singapore electronic exports (released yesterday before the European trading session) were down 24.8% y/y, implying virtually no improvement from August. Falls in US housing starts and building permits for September and a decline in the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook for October completed the downbeat picture.

The data out of China this morning make for a rather mixed picture, albeit perhaps not as weak as feared. Industrial output growth actually picked up some steam in September (accelerating from 4.4% y/y to 5.8% y/y) and so did retail sales (accelerating from 7.5% to 7.8% y/y). Still, overall GDP growth slowed from 6.2% y/y to 6%, hitting the lowest growth rate in almost 30 years. Fixed investment growth also slowed with its contribution to GDP slowing from 25.9% to 19.8%. Moreover, in nominal terms the slowdown in GDP was more significant, as the GDP deflator plunged from 2.1% to 1.6% y/y signalling easing price pressures. So the upshot of these numbers is that whilst the slowdown appears to be losing some of its sting, broader weakness continues to spread. And even if this let-up in activity is a sign that PBoC’s targeted liquidity measures and governments tax cuts and stimulus may finally be gaining some traction, the global slowdown may not be over just yet. Indeed, as growth slows in the US and Europe, we believe it is too early to call this a reversal of economic fortunes.

end
Draghi warns that European stocks are overvalued..and down goes stocks
(zerohedge)

Stocks Tumble After Draghi Warns Of “Over-Stretched Valuations”

Is Mario Draghi trying to bury Lagarde before she even takes her chair at the head of the European Central Bank?

Having shrugged off record low (negative) yields, record tight credit spreads, soaring stocks, and collapsing risk on the back of his endless puking of monetary easing into the bottomless pit of European peripheral hell, Draghi has decided that now is the time to warn about “mild signs of over-stretched valuations” in markets…

Stocks did not like to hear that truthiness…

 

Additionally, VIX has traded like a penny stock all morning…

 

One thing is for sure, if he crashes the market, Lagarde will be forced to move to QE-Moar and the mutinous ECB will likely fall in line.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/USA/SYRIA

That did not last long…the USA brokered ceasefire shattered by a new Turkish offensive

(zerohedge)

US-Brokered Ceasefire In Syria Already Shattered By New Turkish Airstrikes

In an entirely unsurprising development, it only took hours for Turkey to break the US-brokered deal for a 5-day ceasefire in northern Syria. The late Thursday newly inked ceasefire was announced by Vice President Mike Pence following a lengthy meeting with President Erdogan; it crucially involved allowing Kurdish fighters to evacuate battleground border towns and in exchange Turkey would agree to halt its offensive.

But new Turkish air strikes near the border town of Ras al-Ain have shattered the apparently fragile agreement. “Five civilians were killed in Turkish air strikes on the village of Bab al-Kheir, east of Ras al-Ain,” one Syrian war monitoring group cited in the AFP said. Four SDF fighters were also reported killed in that strike, according to the report.

 

Aftermath of Turkish airstrikes on Ras al-Ain earlier this month, via Anodolu Agency/Getty

In an official statement the SDF condemned what it called a clear violation of the terms of the US-Turkish agreement. “Despite the agreement to halt the fighting, air and artillery attacks continue to target the positions of fighters, civilian settlements and the hospital” in Ras al-Ain, spokesman Mustefa Bali said.

This despite no Syrian Kurdish representatives being part of the closed door, last minute deal-making in Ankara on Thursday, and despite international pundits noting neither Washington nor the US-backed Syrian Kurds received anything significant in their favor.

Indeed one Turkish official in the immediate aftermath of the deal had boasted to Middle East Eye “We got exactly what we wanted out of the meeting.”

An AFP report described some of the circumstances of the alleged Turkish ceasefire violation as follows:

The incident took place even as a 200-vehicle convoy headed towards Ras al-Ain to evacuate civilians who have been virtually besieged there since the start of Turkey’s cross-border assault on October 9.

A central element to the deal is that Kurdish forces would be allowed to withdraw from the border outside a strip 32 kilometers, or 20 miles, deep. This area of the ceasefire zone, once a “pause” in fighting leads to a more permanent ceasefire, is to be the future area of a Turkish administered ‘safe zone’ where Ankara intends to resettle a million or more refugees.

Danny Makki@Dannymakkisyria

Yesterday: Ceasefire agreement in northern

Today: Turkish airstrikes kill 5 civilians and wound over 20

Critics have noted this will be tantamount to ‘legalized’ ethnic cleansing, as Erdogan has expressly stated his intent to cleanse it of Kurds while moving Syrian Arab refugees and ethnic Turkmen in.

The Kurdish-led SDF, meanwhile, has agreed only to a ceasefire in the area between Ras al-Ain and Tal Abyad to its west, or in areas that Turkish forces have already effectively captured.

Military situation in northern Syria days before Thursday’s US-brokered ceasefire with Ankara, envisioning the 32km-deep ‘safe zone’ Erdogan desires to establish.

President Trump, for his part has praised the deal as marking “a great day for civilization” and that “millions of lives will be saved” according to a Thursday tweet.

However, Washington’s relations with Turkey continue to be at a boiling point, given President Erdogan for the first time lashed out in statements early Friday with respect to Trump’s now infamous ‘don’t be a tough guy or a fool’ letter over the deteriorating Syria situation. Erdogan told reporters that his country wouldn’t forget the lack of respect.

“We don’t see this issue as our priority today,” he told reporters in Istanbul. But, “it should be known that when the time comes, necessary action will be taken regarding this issue.” Trump and Erdogan are still expected to meet in Washington on Nov. 13. By then, of course, the big ceasefire deal in northern Syria could be in complete tatters and all but dead.

end

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

Russia is now ready to seize control of the world’s largest oil reserves, Venezuela’s PDVSA.  Then the big question:  what will become of USA based CITGO which is owned by PDVSA

(Irina Slav/OilPrice.com)

Russia Ready To Seize Control Of The World’s Largest Oil Reserves

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

The Venezuelan government is readying to hand over control over state oil company PDVSA to Russia’s Rosneft, a local newspaper has reported, citing sources from the industry.

Russian TASS reports, quoting El Nacional, that the radical move is being discussed as a way of erasing Caracas’ debt to Moscow. The debt is sizeable: at the end of June this year, money owed to Rosneft alone stood at $1.1 billion. That’s down from $1.8 billion at end-March.

Two years ago, Caracas and Moscow sealed a deal for the restructuring of another $3.15 billion debt to Russia over 10 years with minimum payments over the first six years. Since 2006, Russian loans to Venezuela have reached more than $17 billion in total.

According to the El Nacional report, Moscow had reacted positively to the suggestion, and several commissions had been set up and sent to Venezuela to evaluate the situation at PDVSA. The first feedback from these commissions was reportedly that the company was too large and it needed serious layoffs to become more competitive.

Competitiveness remains questionable, however. Most of the U.S. sanctions on Venezuela have targeted precisely PDVSA because of its vital role as the country’s—and the Maduro government’s—cash cow. Rosneft is the subject of U.S. sanctions, too.

Rosneft is active in Venezuela in joint projects with PDVSA. However, these activities appear to not be in breach of U.S. sanctions, according to the U.S. Special Envoy for Venezuela Elliott Abrams. However, Abrams said last month that sanctions may be coming for the Russian company in the future. If the El Nacional report is confirmed, these will likely come sooner rather than later

Caracas reportedly wants to hand control over to Rosneft without having to go through privatization. In any case, a change of ownership over PDVSA would need to be approved by the National Assembly, which is controlled by the opposition.

end
Trump now boasts that he has “secured the oil’ in Syria.  Will he hand it back to Damascus as he withdraws all of his troops?
(zerohedge)

Trump Boasts The US “Has Secured The Oil” In Syria

From nearly the start of the now eight-year long war in Syria, analysts and commentators polarized into two camps, with some calling the conflict a “popular uprising” in cause of democracy against a brutal dictator, and with others seeing it as a ‘regime change war’ fueled largely by US imperialist interests.

While there’s many layers to what most can now acknowledge long ago became a complex international proxy war, America’s commander-in-chief just issued an astounding admission that has a number of pundits scratching their heads.

Following a Friday morning phone call with Turkey’s Erdogan over Thursday’s newly inked ceasefire deal with the Kurds, President Trump tweeted The U.S. has secured the Oil, & the ISIS Fighters are double secured by Kurds & Turkey…”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Just spoke to President @RTErdogan of Turkey. He told me there was minor sniper and mortar fire that was quickly eliminated. He very much wants the ceasefire, or pause, to work. Likewise, the Kurds want it, and the ultimate solution, to happen. Too bad there wasn’t…..

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

…..this thinking years ago. Instead, it was always held together with very weak bandaids, & in an artificial manner. There is good will on both sides & a really good chance for success. The U.S. has secured the Oil, & the ISIS Fighters are double secured by Kurds & Turkey….

Amid Trump’s ‘mission accomplished’ moment where he also said “The Kurds are very happy, Turkey is very happy, the U.S. is very happy” (though we seriously doubt the Kurds are happy) — came these further statements in front of reporters:

“We’ve taken control of the oil in the Middle East,” the president said.

Though not elaborating on his provocative statement further, it remains that though a general US troop draw down in Syria has been ordered, American special forces and Kurdish-led SDF forces remain in control of the key oil and gas infrastructure in the Deir Ezzor region, east of the Euphrates. Thus presumably the president was talking specifically about “securing” Syria’s oil, which over the past two years has been an accomplished fact.

Steve Herman

@W7VOA

“We’ve taken control of the oil in the Middle East,” says @POTUS (who didn’t respond to subsequent questions from me and other pool reporters to elaborate on what he means by that).

On Thursday, we asked the question: will US forces withdraw even from occupying Syria’s largest oil fields, like the massive al-Omar field? Will the Pentagon hand back another major energy resource, Conoco gas field, to Damascus?

Over two years ago, as the Syrian Army was racing toward its oil and gas heartland in Deir Ezzor just as the Islamic State was in retreat, the US-backed SDF took over the region, with support of American fighter jets.

Above: overhead view Conoco/Tabiya plant. ConocoPhillips founded it, yet is not currently associated with the company. After 2005 the facility was entirely state-owned and operated.

Since then, Damascus has demanded the giant oil and gas fields be turned back over to their legitimate owner, the Syrian state.

The US in turn maintained a tight blockade against Damascus on these vital energy supplies, combined with more recent crippling sanctions on Syria’s ability to import oil (which it must now get primarily from Iran).

But with the war now clearly winding down, and Trump’s stated desire to exit the theater altogether, is he ready to finally hand back Syria’s crucial energy heartland?

Though it’s not the first time Trump has briefly pulled back the curtain to reveal naked US imperial self-interest in Syria at work (instead of Washington’s usual “humanitarian” war rhetoric), explicitly connecting the Pentagon’s presence in the region with oil and MidEast energy, Friday’s comments are deeply revealing in terms of what may keep the Pentagon there, even if there’s a “light footprint,” as US pundits like to say.

But if Syria’s oil and gas fields are finally handed back, this will be the surest sign every US soldier is set to come home from Syria.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1134 UP .0009 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.66 UP 0.072 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.28891   UP   0.0025  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3135 DOWN .0001 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 9 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1134 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 39.29 POINTS OR 1.32% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 128.91 POINTS OR 0.48%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,49%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 128.91 POINTS OR 0.48%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 39.19 POINTS OR 1.32%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 49% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 40.82  POINTS OR 0.18%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1485.80

silver:$17.43-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.77% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.25 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 97.54 DOWN 6 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.20% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.13%  UP 5   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.25%//UP 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 92 UP 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 67 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.38% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.30% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1158  UP     .0034 or 34 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.44 DOWN .149 OR YEN UP 15  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2896 UP .0034 POUND UP 34  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 5 basis points to 1.3130

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0817    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0777  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7807 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.13%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.73 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.23 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.36 DOWN 25  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 31.45  0.44%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 21.35 POINTS OR .17%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 36.82 POINTS 0.65%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 10.20 POINTS or 0.11%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 53.90 POINTS OR 0.24%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 53.92 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 59.62 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.99  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.15 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 15 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.38 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  53.74//

 

 

BRENT :  59.28

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.75…flat

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.25..plus one basis pt..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1162 ( UP 38   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.41 DOWN .181 (YEN UP 18 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.27 DOWN 34 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2942 UP 78  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7882

 

 

the Russian rouble 63.80   UP 0.32 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 32 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3122 UP 14 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0817  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0751 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.38%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 255.68 POINTS OR 0.95%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 67.31 POINTS OR 0.83%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  14.25 CLOSED UP .46

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.965%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Dow Dumps On Talc-Turmoil, Boeing-Bust, & Pence-Panic

China’s economy slumps, JNJ’s talc asbestos fears, Boeing in deep water over text messages, VP Mike Pence readies to unleash on China, but trade-deal hope did rise on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Global stocks and bond yields were up this week, but the latter rolled over today,

Source: Bloomberg

All things considered…

Chinese stocks ended the week in the red, slammed after last night’s weak data…

Source: Bloomberg

Mixed week in Europe as Brexit headlines dominated, with France the laggard, UK’s FTSE managing gains…

Source: Bloomberg

European bond yields have run this week with Bunds at their highest since late July…

Source: Bloomberg

From the cliff of the US-China trade deal last Friday, The Dow was the week’s worst performer (as Small Caps and Trannies managed gains)…

 

The Dow was weighed down by Boeing and Johnson & Johnson (accounting for all of the points lost today)

 

S&P 500 was unable to hold 3,000 once again…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX was totally chaos today…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields ended the week mixed with the long-end underperforming… NOTE – the week’s big price action was on Tuesday (back from the Columbus Day holiday), after which, rate went sideways…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields hovered at last Friday’s highs…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar is down 7 of the last 8 days (4 days in a row this week), worst week since June (down 3 weeks in a row – worst 3-week drop since January)…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable was higher all week as Brexit deal headlines were optimistic…

Source: Bloomberg

Very mixed picture for cryptos this week with Ripple up notably and Bitcoin and the rest of the altcoins lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin ended the week back below $8k…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the plunge in the dollar, commodities were barely positive on the week and crude was notably weaker…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Finally, we wonder if this has anything to do with the dollar run and stock drop?

Source: Bloomberg

And the SMART money is starting to decouple…

Source: Bloomberg

And amid all this, uncertainty has never, ever been higher…

Source: Bloomberg

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

The second POMO was 480% oversubscribed indicating a total lack of liquidity and mistrusts from one bank to another

(zerohedge)

Fed’s Second “Not QE” T-Bill POMO Is 4.8 Oversubscribed

Just hours after the Fed announce that it accepted $56.65BN in collateral in its latest overnight repo operation ($47.95BN in TSYs, $8.2BN in MBS), which was a modest decline from Thursday’s operation, which as we noted at the time was on the verge of being oversubscribed…

… the Fed announced the results of its second “NOT A QE” Treasury-Bill POMO, which showed that Dealers submitted $36BN in bids for the maximum $7.5BN in purchases.

As such, the operation was 4.8x oversubscribed, a notable increase from the first POMO conducted on Wednesday when Dealers indicated they wanted to purchase $32.6BN in Treasuries, or “only” 4.3x oversubscribed.

And while the Fed kept all Bills that mature in less than a month on the exclusions list as expected, it is perhaps notable that unlike the Wednesday POMO, the number of CUSIPs that were purchased in today’s operation was decided greater than the first POMO, with CUSIP TR0 the most active, with $2.04BN of this Bill tendered back to the Fed, while TB5 was the second most active, at $1.035BN.

Composition of today’s purchases aside – and expect these to vary substantially as the Fed’s POMO lasts well into 2020 – what was most notable is that demand for the Fed’s permanent liquidity injection increased notably in its second operation, and that even though the overnight repo saw a modest dip in dealer interest, this was made up by the $3.5BN increase in POMO demand as demand for $28.5 billion in liquidity remained unmet.

As such the question we have been asking for the past month remains: why are banks still so desperate for liquidity even though the Fed has now made clear the Fed’s balance sheet will expand to accommodate all reserve needsand why do they so stubbornly refuse to approach the interbank market for their funding needs? In short, what do they know about the banking system that we don’t?

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Boeing Shares Battered After 2016 Text Messages Reveal Company Misled FAA About 737 MAX

Boeing shares are under pressure following a Reuters report that internal instant messages from 2016 – that have only recently been shared with the FAA – suggested employees misled the FAA about a key safety system on the 737 Max.

The FAA Administrator is demanding an explanation from Boeing regarding the delay in the recently disclosed 737 MAX ‘smoking gun’ documents. As CNBC notes, the FAA says Boeing discovered the messages “some months ago” and the flight regulatory agency finds the document “concerning.”

“The FAA is also disappointed that Boeing did not bring this document to our attention immediately upon its discovery,” the agency said.

“The FAA is reviewing this information to determine what action is appropriate.”

The document was shared with lawmakers investigating the plane’s certification, the FAA added.

The stock is down 3% and falling…

And Boeing’s demise is weighing on The Dow…

The FAA says it will release further details later today.

In recent weeks, disclosures about Boeing’s too-cozy relationship with the FAA have emerged just as the company has sprung into damage control mode (once again) and removed Dennis Muilenburg from his chairman role (he remains CEO and the operational head of the company) and assured investors that its 737 MAX 8 planes would be airborne once again early next year. Yesterday brought us disclosures about another potential disaster: The discovery of cracks in the wings of some older 737 models.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

A Schiff staffer flew to Ukraine to meet with an impeachment witness, ambassador Bill Taylor

(zerohedge)

Schiff Staffer Flew To Ukraine 2 Months Ago, Met With Impeachment Witness

A staffer for Rep. Adam Schiff’s House Intelligence Committee flew to Ukraine in late August on a trip organized and sponsored by the Atlantic Council, where he met with a key witness for the Democrats’ ongoing impeachment efforts. 

The witness, acting US Ambassador to Ukraine Bill Taylor, is scheduled to provide a deposition next week as part of Schiff’s inquiry into President Trump’s phone call with Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky, according to Breitbart News.

Trump, among other things, asked Zelensky to renew an investigation into Joe Biden and his son Hunter, who were both paid handsomely by gas giant Burisma Holdings while Biden was Vice President, according to prior reports and a new allegation by Ukrainian MP Andriy Derkach, who says he has proof that $900,000 was funneled from Burisma to the elder Biden.

Ambassador Taylor, meanwhile, has a “close relationship” with the Atlantic Council, “writing analysis pieces published on the Council’s website and serving as a featured speaker for the organization’s events,” according to the report, which adds that “He also served for nine years as senior advisor to the U.S.-Ukraine Business Council, which has co-hosted scores of events with the Atlantic Council.

The Schiff staffer, Thomas Eager, meanwhile, partook in the Ukraine trip as a member of the Atlantic Council Eurasia Congressional Fellowship – directly sponsored by Burisma via a 2017 “cooperative agreement.”

A closer look at the itinerary for the August 24 to August 31 trip shows that the delegation’s first meeting upon arrival in Ukraine was with Taylor.

Spokespeople for Schiff’s office did not reply to multiple Breitbart News requests sent over the course of the last three days for comment on Eager’s meeting with Taylor.

When Breitbart News first reported on Eager’s visit to Ukraine two weeks ago, Schiff’s office quickly replied to several comment requests, denying any impropriety related to Eager’s association with the Atlantic Council or the trip.

The unanswered Breitbart email requests to Schiff’s office from the past three days posed the following question:

While in Ukraine, did Mr. Eager speak to Mr. Taylor about the issue of reports about any representatives of President Trump looking into alleged Biden corruption in Ukraine?

Breitbart

Interestingly, Eager’s trip to Ukraine occurred 12 days after a CIA officer (who previously worked for Joe Biden) filed a whistleblower complaint on August 12, using second-hand information regarding Trump’s call with Zelensky.

Schiff’s office, meanwhile, directed the whistleblower to a Democratic operative attorney who has previously worked for Hillary Clinton and Chuck Schumer. Schiff initially lied about the initial contact, later claiming he “should have been much more clear” after he had been caught.

Taylor, meanwhile, will be deposed by House Democrats over text messages which showed him suggesting that President Trump was using his office to pressure Ukraine into investigating Biden. Taylor’s attorney, John Bellinger, “served at the National Security Council and as the State Department’s lead lawyer under President George W. Bush’s administration,” according to Breitbart – which adds that Bellinger is a prominent “Never Trump” Republican who participated in drafting a 2016 letter warning that Trump could be the “most reckless President in American history.”

Read the rest of the report here.

 

END
Trump is now planning to sue CNN over their extreme bias against him exposed in the project Veritas undercover expose.
(zerohedge)

Trump Campaign To Sue CNN For “Substantial Payment” After Project Veritas Undercover Exposé

The Trump administration plans to sue CNN over bias and “wrongful practices” following revalations contained in a recent Project Veritas undercover exposé.

In a four-page letter to CNN, its CEO Jeff Zucker and Executive VP David Vigilante, Trump attorney Charles J. Harder provided several examples of bias against Trump, who seeks “a substantial payment of damages.”

Listing several examples from the just-released Project Veritas videotapes of CNN insiders describing Zucker’s demand for “impeachment above all else,” Harder wrote that they “are merely the tip of the iceberg of the evidence my clients have accumulated over recent years.”

He added, “Never in the history of this country has a President been the subject of such a sustained barrage of unfair, unfounded, unethical and unlawful attacks by so-called ‘mainstream’ news, as the current situation.” –Washington Examiner

Developing…

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Fed Injects $104.2BN via Overnight, Term Repos One Day after Start of “Not A QE”

The Fed accepted $67.7BN and $5.7BN in Treasury and MBS securities as part of today’s overnight repo operation… The Fed also accepted $30.65BN in a 15-day term repo, which consisted of $18.15BN in TSYs and $12.5BN in MBS…

    ICAP reported that the day’s first overnight general collateral repo traded at 2.04%/2.01%, both above the upper end of the Fed Fund rate corridor, and confirming that the liquidity shortage is persisting…

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-injects-1042bn-overnight-term-repos-one-day-after-start-not-qe

ESZs and stocks tumbled on this: Ambassador Gordon Sondland to testify that Trump ‘directed’ Rudy Giuliani in push for Ukraine to probe Joe Biden

    Sondland, in prepared remarks to House impeachment investigators, said Giuliani told him that Trump wanted Ukraine to probe both a conspiracy theory that that nation played a role in trying to undercut Trump’s presidential candidacy in 2016, and a natural gas firm in Ukraine that had Hunter Biden on its board until earlier this year…  https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/17/gordon-sondland-says-trump-directed-giuliani-in-ukraine-biden-probe.html

Sonderland’s statement contradicted the fake news: “Mr. Giuliani emphasized that the President wanted a public statement from President Zelensky committing Ukraine to look into anticorruption issues.  Mr. Giuliani specifically mentioned the 2016 election (including the DNC server) and Burisma as two anti-corruption investigatory topics… I do not recall that Mr. Giuliani discussed Former Vice President Biden or his son Hunter Biden with me…

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6486433/10-17-19-Sondland-Opening-Statement.pdf

Team Schiff leaked false news or the State Media published fake news that was designed to hurt Trump.

Yesterday, Kudlow implied that the ‘Deep State board of the Fed’ is working against Trump.

The WSJ’s @NickTimiraos: Kudlow: “I don’t want to get into a lot of Fed bashing. They do the best they can. Their models are highly flawed. The deep state board staff, of course, has not been helpful. Oops, did I say that?”   https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1184818468639662080

Perhaps there is much more to Trump’s Fed bashing than what has been reported.

After Europe closed, ESZs and stocks declined due to this: China Demands U.S. Remove Tariffs Levied during Trade War for Final Deal   11:39 ET

https://www.newsweek.com/china-demands-us-remove-tariffs-levied-during-trade-war-final-deal-1465963

The above Newsweek story was a reiteration of a SCMP story from six hours earlier that was a reiteration.  But, algos and lemmings buy headlines without regard to their validity or vintage.

China reiterates US must lift all tariffs to end trade war, but Beijing open to partial interim deal…

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3033396/china-reiterates-us-must-lift-all-tariffs-end-trade-war

13:14 ET: @ragipsoylu: Erdogan and Pence reach a deal to suspend Turkish incursion in Northern Syria in 120 hours, Turkish sources to @MiddleEastEye  Turkey will suspend its operations to allow YPG to withdraw from the designated safe zone [Did Lindsey Graham & other Neocons weep?]

The ceasefire allows YPG and Kurdish forces to withdraw 20 miles from the safe zone area.

LA Times’ @UmarFarooq_: 3 weeks ago #Erdogan told the UN he wanted a 32 km deep safe zone in northeastern #Syria. Ankara has insisted that was its goal – to have the YPG leave that area. Today he got that, today the US said it would actually oversee that happens. This is a major win for Turkey

Trump: “As a group, I want to thank the Kurds, because they were incredibly happy with this solution.”

DJT claimed the cease-fire “saved millions of [Kurds] lives.” (Pelosi, Graham and Neocons weep again]

DJT to a reporter: “Don’t forget your friend President Obama lost more than half a million lives in a very short time in the same region. We lost very little.”  https://twitter.com/michaelbeatty3/status/1184901984098242560

Document: Adam Schiff Staffer Met with Impeachment Witness on Ukraine Trip

A staffer on Rep. Adam Schiff’s House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence held a meeting during the trip with acting U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bill Taylor, now a key witness for Democrats pursuing impeachment… Eager’s visit to Ukraine sponsored by the Burisma-funded Atlantic Council began 12 days after the so-called “whistleblower” officially filed his August 12 complaint…

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/10/17/document-adam-schiff-staffer-met-impeachment-witness-ukraine-trip/

 

Appearing on Fox News late on Thursday, House Republican Leader McCarthy said Trump passed out the cautionary letter that he sent to Turkey strongman Erdogan to the room full of Congressional leaders, Cabinet and the Joints Chief of Staff.  When Pelosi received the letter, she turned it upside down on the table without looking at it.  McCarthy claims Pelosi then defiantly smiled at Trump.  The president interjected: “Nancy why are you laughing, this is serious!”  And then the blowup occurred.

https://twitter.com/lawyer4laws/status/1184674024175132673

 

Pelosi gives play-by-play of ‘meltdown’ meeting with Trump over Syria

“I also pointed out to the president I had concerns that all roads seemed to lead to Putin. The Russians have been trying to get a hold in the Middle East unsuccessfully and now the president has given them an opportunity with the Kurds reaching out to them for support in Syria,”… My question to him was is Saudi Arabia home? Why are our troops going to Saudi Arabia if you promised to bring them home?”… “He said, ‘Well, the Saudi Arabians are paying for it.’ Really, we’re putting our troops in harm’s way for Saudi Arabia because they’re paying? It just didn’t add up. But what it did do is cause a meltdown on the part of the president because he was unhappy with those questions,” Pelosi asserted…

https://nypost.com/2019/10/17/pelosi-gives-play-by-play-of-meltdown-meeting-with-trump-over-syria/

 

Before the Wed. meeting, DJT told reporters that he believes Obama was involved in the corruption of the 2016 Election.  The MSM ignored this; but gave beaucoup coverage to Pelosi & Schumer’s rant.

 

@1776Stonewall: Rush [Limbaugh] is pointing out how yesterday’s theatrics by Pelosi & Schumer are an exact replica of what they did back in May after a failed meeting at the WH on infrastructure. Pelosi stormed out, said Trump had a meltdown and that we all need to pray for his mental health.

    It’s literally the same exact thing, using the same exact words. The Whistleblower stunt was an epic disaster, and so they resort to these same old dirty childish tactics

 

@realDonaldTrump: I am the only person who can fight for the safety of our troops & bring them home from the ridiculous & costly Endless Wars, and be scorned. Democrats always liked that position, until I took it. Democrats always liked Walls, until I built them. Do you see what’s happening here?

 

By 57% to 26%, Republican voters back Trump’s decision to remove troops from Syria.

 

An Economist/YouGov survey shows 25 percent of Republican respondents said they strongly approve of pulling out troops, while 32 percent stated they somewhat approve of the move. Further, 26 percent of Republicans surveyed said they oppose the move and 18 percent said they do not hold an opinion on the matter… https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/10/16/poll-majority-of-republicans-back-trumps-syria-decision/

@ChadPergram: Pelosi/Schumer: The only beneficiaries of the President’s policies are our adversaries: ISIS, Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin and Iran.  Today’s decision further makes the argument that Trump doesn’t see Putin as the danger… [Dems default to Putin when things don’t go their way.]

 

BBC on Feb. 7, 2014: Ukraine crisis: Transcript of leaked Nuland-Pyatt call

The US has very clear ideas about what the outcome should be and is striving to achieve these goals… The clear purpose in leaking this conversation is to embarrass Washington and… to portray the US as interfering in Ukraine’s domestic affairs… The US is clearly much more involved in trying to broker a deal in Ukraine than it publicly lets on. There is some embarrassment too for the Americans given the ease with which their communications were hacked…    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957

 

@paulsperry_: The Senate could be subpoenaing Kerry, Nuland, Pyatt, Kavalec, Chalupa & Sullivan & holding hearings on Ukrainian interference in 2016 election as parallel investigation to House impeachment witch hunt. But no. They are playing defense, as usual, cowed by Dems & the Beltway media [Perhaps they are letting Barr/Durham do it to avoid Dems charging ‘politics’ on indictments.]

The current kerfuffle over Ukraine has the Dems and State Media calling any investigation into Ukrainian corruption as interference in the 2020 election.  Team Trump keeps emphasizing they are probing 2016 election interference.  Dems and the State Media keep saying Trump is investigating Biden.

 

@NBCNews: Acting White House Chief of Staff Mulvaney acknowledges President Trump held up Ukraine aid partly for political reasons.

 

Of course, the State Media misrepresented Mulvaney’s remarks.  Mulvaney said “The corruption related to the DNC server…that’s why we held up the money…Three factors [on holding up funds]: corruption, others countries contributions… cooperation with our Department of Justice.”

https://www.wsj.com/video/mulvaney-ukraine-aid-holdup-tied-to-trump-demand-for-election-probe/DD8AD6AE-E647-4A14-B5A2-346D65618CC0.html

 

@HowleyReporter: Re: Mick Mulvaney, withholding funds to a country that actively interfered in a US election is not a Quid Pro Quo, and Crowdstrike is a different issue than Biden…

 

CNBC: Elizabeth Warren did not win the debate and now she’s got work to do

The debate wounded her and revealed her vulnerability on the issue of Medicare For All… sooner rather than later, is going to have to walk back her support for Medicare For All or propose a massive middle class tax increase to pay for it… [As the front runner, she can wait until she secures the nomination.]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/17/elizabeth-warren-did-not-win-the-debate-and-now-shes-got-work-to-do.html

U.S. attorney John Durham acquired the two BlackBerrys used by Joseph Mifsud… [from Italy?]

Mueller have always contended that Mr. Mifsud was a Russian asset…Mr. Papadopoulos contends Mr. Mifsud was a Western agent sent to entrap him… [Did Mueller miss Mifsud’s phones on purpose?]

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/oct/17/john-durham-ag-barrs-special-russia-investigator-o/

Why It Matters That Sidney Powell Wants Data from Joseph Mifsud’s Smartphones

[It] tells us two things: Attorney General William Barr and U.S. Attorney John Durham’s probe into the origins of the Russia-collusion hoax is both serious and successful, and the Crossfire Hurricane targeting of President Trump and former special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation were neither

Mifsud was the man whose tip to young Trump volunteer advisor George Papadopoulos, that the Russians had dirt on Hillary Clinton, supposedly formed the basis for the FBI to launch Crossfire Hurricane’s targeting of the Trump campaign in late July 2016…

    Mueller seemed equally uninterested in Mifsud—a strange position to take toward a putative enemy agent.  In contrast, Barr and Durham seemingly considered Mifsud key to understanding the Russia-collusion investigation…  https://thefederalist.com/2019/10/17/why-it-matters-that-sidney-powell-wants-data-from-joseph-mifsuds-smartphones/

 

@Kerryactivism: For the last three weeks, Rep Cummings was in hospice care in Baltimore and someone else was signing his name to Congressional documents [including subpoenas]

https://twitter.com/Kerryactivism/status/1184942925333090304

 

RNC raises record-setting $27.3 million in September, amid impeachment push

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rnc-raises-record-setting-27-3-million-in-september-amid-impeachment-push

Well that is all for today

I will see you Monday night.

 

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