JAN 9//BIG RAID ORCHESTRATED BY THE CROOKS ON GOLD AND SILVER //GOLD DOWN $5.50 TO $1553.00// SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TO $17.92//USA STATES THAT THE UKRAINIAN JET THAT CRASHED IN TEHRAN WAS SHOT DOWN BY A DEFENSE MISSILE// (SUPPOSEDLY ACCIDENTALLY)//MORE ROCKETS FIRED FROM IRANIAN MILITANTS INTO USA BASES IN IRAQ//REPO MESS IN THE USA FAR FROM OVER:ANOTHER HUGE REPO UPTAKE COURTESY OF THE FED//REPO UPTAKE NOW GREATER THAN AT YEAR END//SWAMP STORIES//

 


GOLD:
$1553.00 DOWN $5.50    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.92 DOWN 24 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

 

Gold :  $1552.25

 

silver:  $17.90

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:88/151

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,557.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/08/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 01/10/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 10
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 10
661 C JP MORGAN 95 88
685 C RJ OBRIEN 12
690 C ABN AMRO 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 42 26
800 C MAREX SPEC 2 11
905 C ADM 5
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 151 151
MONTH TO DATE: 2,491

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN CONTRACT: 151 NOTICE(S) FOR 15100 OZ (0.4696 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  2491 NOTICES FOR 249,100 OZ  (7.7480 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JAN

 

 

23 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 115,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 346 for 1,730,000 oz

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 7936 DOWN 115 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7963 DOWN 117

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A TINY SIZED 231 CONTRACTS FROM 234,324 UP TO 234,093 WITH THE 21 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  1563 AND MAY: 120 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1683 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1683 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1683 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 8.415 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 21 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

1.775     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN JAN

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 21 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED 1452 CONTRACTS. OR 7.26 MILLION OZ…..

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JAN:

10,612 CONTRACTS (FOR 6 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 10,612 CONTRACTS) OR 53.060 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1768 CONTRACTS OR 8.843 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN:  53.06 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 7.58% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          53.06   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 53.06 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 231, DESPITE THE HUGE 21 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /WEDNESDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1683 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA)

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED  SIZED: 1452 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1683 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 231 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND HAPPENED DESPITE A 21 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.16 // WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.148 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 164% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JAN MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 23 NOTICE(S) FOR 115,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018.  AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN: 1,775,000  OZ
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 734 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 785,123 MOVING AWAY FROM OUR ALL TIME RECORD (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. 

THE SMALL FALL IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE A STRONG LOSS OF  $14.10 IN PRICING  ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// WEDNESDAY// / 

 

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 14,658 CONTRACTS:

JAN 2020: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB>  12,704 CONTRACTS APRIL: 3435 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 785,123,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG BUT CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 15,405 CONTRACTS: 734 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 16,139 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 15,405 CONTRACTS OR 1,540,500 OZ OR 47.92 TONNES.  WEDNESDAY WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF $14.10 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND DESPITE THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUGE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 47.02  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (DOWN $14.10) THEY WERE TOTALLY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO  FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD OUR HUGE GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (47.92 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER.

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN SILVER AS THEY MORPH INTO GOLD AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE FEBRUARY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR GOLD:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF JAN. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN : 59,878 CONTRACTS OR 5,987,800 oz OR 186.24 TONNES (6 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9979 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 186.24 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 186.24/3550 x 100% TONNES =5.24% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     186.24  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 186.24 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 734 DESPITE THE  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK WEDNESDAY($14.10)) //.WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 16,139 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 16,139 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC BUT CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 15,405 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

16,139 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 734 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 47.92 TONNES). ..AND THIS  INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $14.10 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $5.50 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

JAN 9/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 886.81 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY

ANOTHER FRAUD:

A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.268 MILLION OZ WHICH WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY.

 

JAN 9/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 231 CONTRACTS from 234,324 UP TO 234,073 AND FURTHER FROM A NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 1/2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

EFP ISSUANCE 966

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  1563:  AND MAY: 120 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1683 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 231  CONTRACTS TO THE 1683 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 1452 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7.260 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 1.775 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 21 LOSS GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1683 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.99 POINTS OR 0.99%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 473.08 POINTS OR 1.68%   /The Nikkei closed UP 535.11 POINTS OR 2.31%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .88%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9319 /Oil DOWN TO 59.69 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.38 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9319 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9292 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)CHINA/USA

China is arriving next week to sign the deal but it does not look likely that China can meet USA demands for increasing their purchasing quotas to the uSA

(zerohedge)

ii)CHINA/USA

Top China expert has doubts over the trade deal as he claims that tensions are getting worse

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK/EUROPE

This is probably what the UK wants: to leave without a deal as they seek better terms with the uSA and other nations.

(zerohedge)

ii)UK// China//USA

The USA is putting a lot of pressure on the UK to abandon Huawei. If the UK cannot get a deal with trade deal with Europe, then the USA is essential and then the UK will no doubt drop Huawei.

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAN/IRAQ/USA

It looks like the missile attacks on USA bases in iraq was on infrastructure and not aimed at troops. However the Chief commander states that this attack is the first of many

(zerohedge)

ii)IRAN

IRAN CHANGES ITS STORY ON THE UKRAINIAN AIRLINER CRASH. It sure looks like a missile whacked right into the fuselage

(zerohedge)

iii)Iran

Video captures the moment the missile stroke the Boeing 737 over Tehran

(zerohedge)

iv)IRAN/USA/

USA officials highly confident the Iran has accidentally shot down our Ukrainian passenger jet
(zerohedge)

v)IRAQ/IRAN

More rockets fired on USA bases North of Baghdad
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

BALTIC DRY INDEX

The Baltic Dry Index is a good Bellwether for global growth. It has been plunging to new lows on a daily basis and we are now at levels of 2008

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Are we heading for a new gold standard?  Find out why Jim Rickards thinks that we are heading towards this

(courtesy Jim Rickards)

ii)Gold is at record highs despite today;s raid denominated in yen and euros

(zerohedge)

iii) J. Johnson’s commentary on comex silver deliveries

(courtesy J Johnson)

iv)Eastern countries central banks are still loading up on physical gold courtesy of our crooked Western bankers.

(Peter Schiff)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Skyrm: today it is Skyrm who warns that the Fed is now trapped as it must continue to supply cash to needed Repo Market

(zerohedge)

b)Again in today’s repo operations basically fully subscribed. Remember that the totals so far and greater than at year end and thus the problem is not just regulatory problems

a must read…
(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

LET US BEGIN:

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY SMALL SIZED 734 CONTRACTS TO 787,123 MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  THE SMALL LOSS IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE  THE STRONG LOSS OF $14.10 IN GOLD PRICING // WEDNESDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 16,139 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 12,704  AND APRIL: 3435  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 16,139 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 15,405 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 16,139 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 734 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL BY $14.10). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS AND CRIMINALLY SIZED  15,405 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES…..

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  15,405 CONTRACTS OR 1,540,500 OZ OR 47.92 TONNES.  AND THE PRICE OF GOLD WAS DOWN???? 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  785,123 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 78.12 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,429 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,449/2200 OR 110.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

We are now in the   NON active contract month of JAN.  This month is generally one of the poorest of delivery months for the year.  Here we have a total of 180 open interest left to be served upon, for a GAIN of 123 contracts.   We had 28 notices served up on Tuesday so we surprisingly gained another 151 contracts or an additional 15,100 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of January. I can now safely say that the comex is under attack for metal!!

The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed a LOSS OF 18,394 in contracts DOWN to 499,820.  

March received another 246 contracts to stand at an open interest of 513.

The next active delivery month after March is April and here we witnessed a gain of 15,226 contacts up to 164,644 oi contracts.

We had 151 open interest notices served upon today for 15100 oz

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY TINY SIZED 231 CONTRACTS FROM 2334,324 UP TO 234,093 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND WEDNESDAY’S GOOD  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 21 CENT LOSS IN PRICING/.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

Here we have a GAIN of 16 contracts UP to 32. We had 8 notices served on Tuesday, so we gained 24 contracts or an additional 120,000 oz will stand for delivery during this non active delivery month of January. Silver along with gold are under attack for metal!! Our bankers have their work cut out for them.

 

 

 

After January, we have  the non active month of February and here we saw a LOSS of 11 contracts TO A LEVEL OF  469.  March is a very active month and here we witness a LOSS of 1101 contracts DOWN to 180,852

 

 

We, today, had 23 notice(s) filed for 115,000, OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 103,703 contracts    

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY190,673 contracts or 115.2% of total gold open interest

absolutely criminal!!

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JAN/GOLD

JAN 9/2020

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
151 notice(s)
 15,100 OZ
(0.4696 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
29 contracts
(2900 oz)
0.0902 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2491 notices
249,100 OZ
7.7480 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

 

ii)into everybody else: 0 oz

 

 

 

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil oz

ADJUSTMENTS:  1

out of Brinks:  964.53 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer acocunt of Brinks

(30 kilobars)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE JAN 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 95 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 151 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 88 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2491) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JAN. (180 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (151 x 100 oz per contract) equals 252,000 OZ OR 7.838 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JAN

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (2491 x 100 oz)  + (XX)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (151 x 100 oz )which equals 252,000 oz standing OR 7.838 TONNES in this  NON active delivery month of JAN.

WE GAINED A STRONG 151 CONTACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 15100 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AND THUS REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY REFUSING TO TRAVEL TO LONDON THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 34.11 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    7.838 TONNES

 

total: 129.73 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 6 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 19.2540 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 129.26  tonnes

 

Thus:

129.73 tonnes of delivery –

19.2540 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 110.476 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 34.11 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,334,232.623 oz or  41.50 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 109,667.90 oz (34.11 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC  which cannot settle upon:  237,553.646 oz  ( 7.38989)//+
    total  7.38989 tonnes
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  109,667.90  (34.11 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,702,676.619 oz 270.68 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

JAN 9
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 24,981.385 oz
CNT
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
23
CONTRACT(S)
(115,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
9 contracts
 45,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  346 contracts

1,730,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

 

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.4% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/319.730 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of Delaware; 3941.049 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 24,981.385 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 28,922.434   oz

We had 1 adjustment:

i) 966. oz was removed from Scotia eligible account as an accounting error

total dealer silver:  84.716 million

total dealer + customer silver:  320.055 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the JAN 2020. contract month is represented by 23 contract(s) FOR 115,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  JAN, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 346 x 5,000 oz =1,730,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (32) and the number of notices served upon today 23 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JAN/2019 contract month: 346 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN (32)- number of notices served upon today (23) x 5000 oz equals 1,775,000 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month.

WE GAINED 24 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 120,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX AND REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY DOING THIS THEY ALSO NEGATED RECEIVING A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 23 notice(s) filed for 115,000 OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  103,707 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 190,673 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 190,673 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 953 million  OZ   136% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

and 81.48% of total silver open interest.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.62% ((JAN 9/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.61% to NAV (JAN 9/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.62%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.43 TRADING 14.92///DISCOUNT  3,33

 

END

 

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JAN 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 9.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 A GOOD INVENTORY PAPER DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.18 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP #15.40 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $24.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONES INTO THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30

JAN 2/2020//WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $4.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25 TONNES

DEC 30//WITH GOLD UP $2.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.10 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.51 PAPER TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.86 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $14.60//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.64 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.56 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.66 TONNES

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: 1 SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.22 TONNES

DEC 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 13/ WITH GOLD UP $8.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 10//WITH GOLD UP $3.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $.60: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.34 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 5/2019: WITH GOLD UP $3.60 TODAY: A  SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 4/2019/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

 

DEC 2 /WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

 

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

 

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JAN 9/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 886.81 tonnes

*IN LAST 740 TRADING DAYS: 50.64 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 640 TRADING DAYS: A NET 116.41 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.268 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ///

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ//

JAN 7.//WITH SILVER UP 23  CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ..

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440 MILLION OZ///

JAN 3/2020//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440  MILLION OZ///

SINCE DEC 23 WE HAVE HAD A 94 CENT GAIN CORRESPONDING TO A 2.39 MILLION OZ OF PAPER WITHDRAWALS..AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

JAN 2/2020/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.616 MILLION OZ

DEC 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 30/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ

DEC  26//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 24/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ///

 

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.028 MILLION PAPER OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 17//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 747,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ/?

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13//WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 10//WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:  A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.495 MILLION OZ//// INVENTORY RESTS  AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.869 MILLION OZ FROM SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.100 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 5//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 3//WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.512 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ..

DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

 

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

 

 

JAN 9.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

356.958 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.24/ and libor 6 month duration 2.20

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .05

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.82%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.87

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.13

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Are we heading for a new gold standard?  Find out why Jim Rickards thinks that we are heading towards this

(courtesy Jim Rickards)

Jim Rickards: A new gold standard — orderly or chaotic?

 Section: 

By James Rickards
DailyReckoning.com
Tuesday, January 7, 2020

Over the past century, monetary systems change about every 30 to 40 years on average. Before 1914 the global monetary system was based on the classical gold standard.

Then in 1945 a new monetary system emerged at Bretton Woods. I was at Bretton Woods this past summer to commemorate its 75th anniversary.

… 

Under that system the dollar became the global reserve currency, linked to gold at $35 per ounce. In 1971 Nixon ended the direct convertibility of the dollar to gold. For the first time, the monetary system had no gold backing.

Today the existing monetary system is nearly 50 years old, so the world is long overdue for a change. Gold should once again play a leading role.

I’ve written and spoken publicly for years about the prospects for a new gold standard. My analysis is straightforward.

International monetary figures have a choice. They can reintroduce gold into the monetary system either on a strict or loose basis (such as a “reference price” in monetary policy decision making).

This can be done as the result of a new monetary conference, a la Bretton Woods. It could be organized by some convening power, probably the U.S. working with China.

Or they can ignore the problem, let a debt crisis materialize (that will play out in interest rates and foreign-exchange markets), and watch gold soar to $14,000 per ounce or higher, not because they wanted it to but because the system is out of control. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://dailyreckoning.com/a-new-gold-standard-orderly-or-chaotic/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

iii) Other physical stories:

Gold is at record highs despite today;s raid denominated in yen and euros

(zerohedge)

Gold Spikes To Record High In Euros As Geopolitical Risk Rises

Gold (priced in USDollars) spiked dramatically overnight, pushing towards seven-year highs as tensions in the Middle East escalated. Then, once Trump and Zarif had tweeted de-escalations, gold (in USDollars) fell back to unchanged…

Spot Gold surged above $1600 overnight – its highest since March 2013…

Source: Bloomberg

And while gold is off the overnight highs, The Economist notes that the yellow metal has already been on a long rally.

“Nobody really understands gold prices, and I don’t pretend to understand them either,” Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, told America’s Senate Banking Committee in 2013, after a turbulent few months in the market for the metal (it hit its all-time peak in 2011, at the height of the euro-zone crisis and following a downgrade of America’s credit rating).

Yet it is not difficult to understand why the price of gold hit its highest level since early that year – $1,610 per ounce – on January 8th.

The jump to a near-seven-year high followed the drone strike that killed Qassem Suleimani, leader of the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, three days earlier.

Investors typically seek sanctuary in gold when geopolitical risk soars.

The rise of 2.85% over two trading days is similar to those after other Middle Eastern flare-ups. (The killing of General Suleimani also caused oil prices to leap: Brent crude rose by 5%, briefly topping $70 a barrel for the first time since May.)

In fact, the price of gold (in USDollars) has been rising for a while, climbing by more than 25% since November 2018. The effect of General Suleimani’s death, at least so far, is just an additional upward tick. In fact, in Euros, the price of gold has never been higher…

Source: Bloomberg

John Pierpont Morgan, eponymous founder of America’s biggest investment bank, seems to have foreseen this, quipping that “gold is money, everything else is credit”.

Gold is also at 40 year highs in Yen…

Source: Bloomberg

And, in case you are unable to see the difference between judging the USDollar against its ‘fiat’ friends and a hard asset, the following chart should help…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Au/Ag’s Open Interest Has More “Tell” Than The Price!

And when the return for providing credit is close to zero, it is little surprise that investors want their money in gold.

end

Great and Wonderful Thursday Morning Folks,

      Gold got hammered yesterday and last night, after the word “Peace” was used with the trade now at $1,554.60, down $5.80 and recovering from the low at $1,541.00 with the high to beat at $1,562.40. Silver took the bigger hit, because it’s Silver, with the trade at $18.025, down 14.2 cents with its starting recovery at $17.825 with the high to beat at $18.225. The US Dollar, which is still getting support from the federal reserve “repo printing act” is now trading at 97.100, up 10.4 points after reaching up to 97.200 with the low at 96.955. Of course all this was done before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and only after Gold spiked to new life of contract highs in the EuroCurrency.

      In Venezuela, Gold’s new and temporary buying price is now at 15,526.57 Bolivar showing a drop of 241.70 overnight with Silver now at 180.025 Bolivar, losing 3.895. In Argentina, the Peso now has Gold priced at 92,846.32 proving a 1,503.87 A-Peso reduction with Silver now trading at 1,076.14 giving the buyer a 24.41 A-Peso discount, in what I think may last for a very short period of time. In Turkey, where the Lira controls the trade, Gold is now priced at 9,138.76 showing the reductions at 259.94 T-Lira with Silver dropping 3.645 in T-Lira value with the price at 105.972.

      January Silver’s Delivery Requests are now at 32 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts and with a Volume of 13 up on the board with a trading range of $17.760 (high/low/last) showing a 32.8 cent loss for the seller but a huge gain for the holder as our Resolute Buyer may still be in need. This proves the Delivery Count increased by 16 contracts during yesterday’s trades.

      Silver’s Overall Open Interest is where the paper meets the physicals, in a free for all fashion (inside a criminal element arena of play as the DOJ observes) with the total count right now at 234,376 Overnighters proving only a 20-count drop in all paper that controls Silver. In short, yesterday and last night’s activity did very little in attempting to scare out buyers, in fact it seems they didn’t scare anybody, as the Resolute Longs remain. Gold’s Overall Open Interest has leveled off but at the extreme count of 787,584 Overnighters with the new Life of Contract Paper High of 797,110, which was established this past Monday. So, if the price fell but very few Resolutes left the field of play, does that mean a short-term drop?

      We think so and this is the reason why we suggest chartists, who ignore the paper behind the price, may be missing the reason how the market gets controlled. Strict chartist will never know the Open Interest has more “tell” than the price.

      In the meantime, we wait, as nothing has changed. The repo markets continue to require newly printed cash in order for the centrals to stay in place, at the same time all this paper is being applied behind the price which has remained super-elevated. We’ll continue to support the Resolutes, and the buyers of physical, while the centrals continue to need more printed cash. Enjoy your day, keep the attitudes positive and a smile on your face no matter what, and as always …

Stay Strong!

JJohnson

 

end

Eastern countries central banks are still loading up on physical gold courtesy of our crooked Western bankers.

(Peter Schiff)

Central Banks Continue “Remarkable” Gold-Buying Spree

Via SchiffGold.com,

Central banks continued their remarkable gold-buying spree in November and remain on pace to eclipse 2018’s near-record purchases.

According to the latest numbers from the World Gold Council, central banks added 27.9 tons on a net-basis to official gold reserves in November. That brings the yearly total for 2018 with one month left to calculate to 570.2 tons, 11% higher than the same period in the previous year.

World Gold Council

@GOLDCOUNCIL

“The scale of purchases year-to-date remains remarkable.” In his latest Goldhub blog post, Krishan Gopaul, of our research team, discusses our recently released central bank gold reserves statistics, covering November 2019: http://spr.ly/60151b8QW

View image on Twitter

In 2018, central banks purchased just over 650 tons. According to the WGC, that was the highest level of annual net central bank gold purchases since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971, and the second-highest annual total on record

The World Gold Council bases its data on information submitted to the International Monetary Fund.

Turkey led the pack for the third straight month, adding another 17 tons of gold to its reserves in November. The Turks have leapfrogged the Russians as the number-one gold-buyer in 2019 with over 181 tons added to their hoard. Turkish consumers are also flocking to the yellow metal. According to Bloomberg, gold demand was up 3.7% in the first nine months of 2019. The country’s government has loosened rules governing gold imports to meet the growing demand.

Russia added another 9.7 tons of gold to its reserves in November. That brings its total gold purchases to nearly 149 tons so far in 2019. Russia’s quest for gold has paid off in a big way. The Russian Central Bank’s gold reserves topped $100 billion in September thanks to continued buying and surging prices.

The Russians have been buying gold for the last several years in an effort to diversify away from the US dollar.  Russian gold reserves increased 274.3 tons in 2018, marking the fourth consecutive year of plus-200 ton growth. Meanwhile, the Russians sold off nearly all of its US Treasury holdings. According to Bank of America analysts,  the amount of US dollars in Russian reserves fell from 46% to 22% in 2018.

After pausing for a couple of months, Kazakhstan got back into the gold-buying business in November, adding 4.6 tons of gold to its stash.

Other gold-buying central banks in November were Mongolia (2 tons) and Thailand  (0.1 ton.)

Columbia was the only big seller, divesting itself of just over 5 tons of gold in November.

For the second month in a row, the People’s Bank of China did not report any gold purchases.  It’s not uncommon for China to go silent and then suddenly announce a large increase in reserves.

The World Gold Council called the scale of central bank gold purchases in 2019 “remarkable.”

Following the 50-year high in 2018, few (including us) expected the buying strength we have seen.”

The central bank gold-buying spree is expected to continue into 2020 as countries continue to create a hedge against geopolitical risk and diversify their reserves away from the US dollar.

 

World Gold Council director of market intelligence Alistair Hewitt said there are two major factors driving central banks to buy gold – geopolitical instability and extraordinarily loose monetary policy.

Central banks are looking toward gold to balance some of that risk. We’ve also got negative rates and yields for a large number of sovereign bonds.”

The extraordinarily loose monetary policy shows no sign of reversing. The Federal Reserve appears to have paused rate cuts, but Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that the central bank does not plan on raising rates, even if inflation begins to heat up.

Peter Schiff has talked about central bank gold-buying. He has noted that the US went off the gold standard in 1971, but he thinks the world is going to go back on it.

The days where the dollar is the reserve currency are numbered and we’re going back to basics. You know, everything old is new again. Gold was money in the past and it will be money again in the future, and central banks that are smart enough to read that writing on the wall are increasing their gold reserves now.”

Ron Paul made a similar point in an episode of the Liberty report. He said foreign central banks are increasingly gravitating to sound money like gold and ripping themselves away from the Fed’s dollar.

The central banks of the world are looking at gold again.”

END

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9319/ 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9293   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 27.99 POINTS OR 0.99%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 473.08 POINTS OR 1.68%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 535.11 POINTS OR 2.31%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.43/Euro FALLS TO 1.1082

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.41/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 59.69 and Brent: 65.38

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.20%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.37% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.43%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.57: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.38

3k Gold at $1547.00 silver at: 17.90   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 3/100 in roubles/dollar) 61.30

3m oil into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 65 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.41 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9713 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0795 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.20%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.87% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.35%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8799..

Global Markets Soar To Record Highs On Trade War, World War Optimism

So much for the risk of a Iran-US conflict spilling over into World War 3, at least according to markets which soared yesterday after Trump refused to re-escalate the armed conflict with Tehran, and have continued to surge since.

“Iran appears to be standing down, which is a good thing for all parties concerned and a very good thing for the world,” Trump said. He announced economic sanctions on Iran without giving details. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had earlier said the strikes “concluded” Tehran’s response to the killing of its general, Qassem Soleimani.

As a result of this “all clear”, in Europe the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose for third session as every major national benchmark increased in a burst of euphoria. In Asia, stock markets also surged higher as MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan rose 1.3%, its biggest gain in almost a month led by IT and communications companies. The MSCI Asia Pacific index headed for its highest level since June 2018, with all markets in the region up, except New Zealand and Singapore. Japanese shares were among the top performers, with SoftBank Group Corp. and Sony Corp. driving gains for the Topix. The Shanghai Composite Index also reversed some of Wednesday’s losses, with Kweichow Moutai Co. and Foxconn Industrial Internet Co. up. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Shanghai blue chips each added more than 1.2%. Japanese stocks gained 2.3% to their highest for the year. Australian stocks rose 0.8% to a record closing high.

China’s consumer inflation steadied in December after hitting the highest since 2012 the previous month, while pressure remains ahead if oil prices continue to rise. Overnight China’s NBS reported that the latest, December, CPI, came in at 4.5% slightly below the 4.7% (vs prev. 4.5%), while PPI for December also missed at -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.4%, if better than the previous -1.4%.
Indeed, as Reuters notes, global markets looked to have overcome their new year wobbles on Thursday, as the United States and Iran backed away from conflict in the Middle East.

As a result, after hitting an all time high on Wednesday, the ramp continued overnight, and US equity futures markets pointed to gains continuing in the United States, with S&P 500 futures up 0.3% and Dow futures 0.4% higher.

“I think today is a bit of a relief rally,” said AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver in Sydney. “Yesterday, investors were fearing the worst, that this was the escalation now underway. “The news overnight has been more along the lines that Iran pulled its punches and Trump is toning things down, which is seen by investors as substantially reducing the risk of a war.”

In rates, Treasuries, which had soared in the flight to safety, also settled back. Yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note were at 1.8633%, after dropping as low as 1.705%. European bond yields were also at one-week highs, with the benchmark German Bund yield almost 4 basis points higher on the day at -0.22%, albeit still below last week’s seven-month highs.

In FX, the flight to safety trade unwound aggressively, and the yen continued to reverse its 2020 gains in European trading. It was last down 0.2% at 109.36, its lowest in a week and a half. Another safe currency, the Swiss franc, also fell against both the dollar and the euro. The Bloomberg dollar spot index rose a third day as the greenback advanced against most Group-of-10 peers amid positioning ahead of a Fed-heavy day and non-farm payroll data tomorrow. The pound weakened against all other major currencies after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the central bank has at least 250 basis points of additional policy space, acknowledging the possibility to use both conventional non- conventional tools. The Australian dollar rose from a three-week low as haven bids waned amid easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Risk appetite was also evident in emerging-market currency markets. China’s trade-exposed yuan reached a five-month high of 6.9281 per dollar and hard-hit currencies like South Africa’s randand Turkey’s lira also gained.

“The obvious first conclusion to make is that we see the potential for further yen depreciation going forward,” said MUFG’s EMEA head of research, Derek Halpenny, adding that $1.10 could be possible and that the euro might lose ground, too.

As risk soared, commodities tumbled, and oil is now somehow cheaper than it was before the killing of Soleimani. Brent futures steadied at $65.41 per barrel, about where they began the year. Gold fell to $1,544.80 per ounce before rebounding back to $1550, giving back Wednesday’s gains but remaining more expensive than it was before Soleimani’s death, suggesting investors’ fears have not evaporated.

If the geopolitical calm holds it will allow traders to switch focus to the next clue on the health of the world’s biggest economy, which will come with the U.S. non-farm jobs report on Friday: “The backdrop remains benign for equities,” Mona Mahajan, an investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors, told Bloomberg TV. “Low rates, low inflation and low growth. A mild Goldilocks in many ways.”

“All is well – so says Trump! That is the mood today,” said Bank of Singapore currency strategist Moh Siong Sim, and so it shall be until something more than just a headline breaks the cycle of stocks rising to new all time highs amid optimism the either a trade war, or world war, has been delayed.

Economic data include initial jobless claims, and several Fed speakers are on the agenda. Intuitive Surgical and Acuity Brands are due to report earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 3,271.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 420.36
  • MXAP up 1.3% to 172.00
  • MXAPJ up 1.5% to 559.85
  • Nikkei up 2.3% to 23,739.87
  • Topix up 1.6% to 1,729.05
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.7% to 28,561.00
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,094.88
  • Sensex up 1.5% to 41,431.85
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 6,874.23
  • Kospi up 1.6% to 2,186.45
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to -0.194%
  • Euro up 0.05% to $1.1110
  • Brent Futures up 0.5% to $65.78/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 3.6 bps to 1.243%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 0.449%
  • Brent Futures up 0.1% to $65.49/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.7% to $1,546.08
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.07% to 97.36

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • President Trump vowed more sanctions on Iran as part of his “maximum pressure” campaign against the Islamic Republic. The sanctions will likely be aimed at non-oil sectors of the economy and fit into a plan to choke off other sources of revenue
  • Oil steadied as investors weighed the risk of further escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict that has so far spared production and exports from the Middle East
  • Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen set out rival red lines for their visions of a post-Brexit deal in the first clash of a negotiation set to be thornier than the fraught talks to secure Britain’s divorce from the bloc
  • ECB President Christine Lagarde used her first public remarks of 2020 to push for greater coordination between the region’s policy makers, saying a joint fiscal push would help jump-start the sluggish economy.
  • China’s consumer inflation steadied in December after hitting the highest since 2012 the previous month, while pressure remains ahead if oil prices continue to rise.
  • Sweden’s Riksbank is running into criticism from economists for not doing enough to explain last month’s historical decision to end five years of negative interest rates
  • German industrial production rebounded in November after two months of declines, in a cautious sign that Europe’s largest economy may be near the bottom of its manufacturing slump
  • India’s plan to sell $14.7 billion of government-owned assets to plug its budget deficit is seen falling short by nearly half, according to people familiar with the matter
  • The Swiss National Bank plans to make a bigger payout to the government from its 49 billion-franc ($50 billion) profit, a move aimed at dousing some of the criticism of its monetary policy

Asia-Pac bourses kicked off the session with firm gains across the board after a positive handover from Wall Street – which saw the Nasdaq Comp notching intraday and closing records, whilst the S&P hit intraday all-time highs. Global sentiment was bolstered by what seems to be a simmering down in US-Iran tensions, with US President Trump also stating that the US is ready to embrace peace after saying that Iran appears to be standing down. US equity futures and cash experienced some losses heading into the Wall Street close amid reports of two rockets hitting Baghdad’s Green Zone near the US Embassy, although negative sentiment failed to materialise as no casualties were registered. ASX 200 (+0.8%) gleaned support from its largest weighted financials sector, but gains remained hindered as oil and precious metal names are pressured by recent price action in the respective complexes. Nikkei 225 (+2.3%) outperformed peers in the region as the index welcomed favourable JPY dynamics and with only a small fraction of its constituents in negative territory. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.7%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.9%) echoed the performance in regional peers after the Mainland initially side-lined below-forecast Chinese inflation figures for a bulk of the session, with the US-China Phase One deal signing drawing closer.

Top Asia News

  • South Korea’s Moon Reassigns Prosecutors Probing Government
  • SoftBank-Backed Coupang Said to Prepare for IPO as Soon as 2021
  • Uniqlo Sees Worst Overseas Sales Drop in Decade Amid Asia Unrest

European bourses are firmer this morning, in the next turn of what is proving to be a roller-coaster week for markets. This strength comes as comments from US President Trump yesterday intimated a de-escalation in tensions, more information available in the Commodity section below. This morning’s notable outperformer is the Dax, with the cash bourse having printed a high above the 13500 mark; marking a significant retracement/turnaround from the weeks low below the 12950 level, an over 500 point range already for the index. Sector wise, energy is this morning’s notable underperformer, on the aforementioned de-escalation in tensions in-line with the broader crude complex. Energy aside, the remaining bourses are in positive territory for the session. At the bottom of the Stoxx 600 this morning are Marks & Spencer (-9.4%), after providing a Q3 and Christmas Period trading update; in which, they did note that gross margins are expected at the lower-end of guidance, but this should be offset. In contrast, after also providing a holiday update, Tesco (+2.2%) are firmly in the green, the Co. highlighted that over the Christmas period they outperformed the market. UK supermarkets aside, flight names such as Air France (+4.3%) are benefitting on the reduction in oil-prices and calming of tensions; with Air France specifically having provided a strong December update this morning. EU antitrust regulators have now recommenced their investigation into the Boeing (BA) and Embraer deal, following on from Boeing presenting requested data, decision is due by the 30th of April

Top European News

  • Tough Christmas Rounds Out U.K. Retailers’ Worst Year Ever
  • Calisen Is Said to Weigh Seeking GBP1.3b-GBP1.5b IPO Valuation
  • Estonia Warns Banks’ Anti-Laundering Measures Stifle Business
  • Norway Raises Oil Production Forecasts Thanks to Sverdrup Giant

In FX, the great Greenback revival continues, albeit gradually, with the DXY nudging through 97.500 having picked off the next upside chart objectives at 97.344 and 97.350 to target December 27’s 97.552 high set before the broad Dollar was beset by portfolio selling for year end. The Buck is still forging gains or clawing back losses vs major rivals, and in particular those currencies deemed to be safer havens, with only a minor blip caused by several incendiary Iranian remarks earlier today, as investors take comfort from the fact that Tehran’s strike back did not irk US President Trump to the extent of further action beyond more sanctions.

  • GBP – Unexpectedly dovish commentary from BoE Governor Carney has pushed the Pound down to the bottom of the G10 rankings, as he raises some doubt about the anticipated 2020 economic recovery and reveals that the MPC is mulling whether it needs to help via additional stimulus. Moreover, he believes there is room to restart QE within a wider easing package equating to 250 bp and the APF more than twice the size of August 2016’s Gbp60 bn. Cable had already given up 1.3100+ status around the 9 am fix as Eur/Gbp squeezed up towards 0.8500, but Sterling declines subsequently extended to sub-1.3020 and circa 0.8530 respectively.
  • NZD/JPY/AUD – The Kiwi and Yen are also underperforming, as Nzd/Usd retests support/bids ahead of 0.6600 and Usd/Jpy probes offers/supply into 109.50. However, the former appears weak partly, if not mainly due to relative Aussie resilience near 1.0350 and 0.6850 vs its US peer in wake of a much wider than forecast trade surplus, while the latter may yet be drawn back down towards a very large option expiry at 109.25 (2.4 bn).
  • EUR/CHF/CAD/NOK/SEK – All softer against the Greenback or Euro in the case of the Scandi Crowns, but to varying degrees with the single currency and Franc holding up a bit better than others even though Eur/Usd has pulled back further from recent highs and into a heavy option expiry interest zone spanning the 1.1100 level (1.7 bn from 1.1090 to the round number and 1.5 bn between 1.1110-15). Meanwhile, Usd/Chf is trapped in a tight 0.9732-47 range following stagnant Swiss retail sales data (y/y) and Usd/Cad awaits Canadian housing starts and building permits before a late speech from BoC chief Poloz within 1.3026-56 confines, while Eur/Nok and Eur/Sek are both firmer circa 9.8700 and 10.5200, tracking overall risk sentiment, oil prices and for the Norwegian Krona also taking on board rather tepid monthly mainland GDP.

In commodities, today’s price action sees the crude complex in negative territory, as last nights remarks via US President Trump point to a de-escalation in the Middle East noting that he would prefer not to take a military response; albeit, POTUS did state the US is to implement further sanctions on Iran. However, subsequent remarks from a Iranian Commander state they will take ‘harsher revenge soon’ for the killing of Soleimani, following the missile strikes on US-Iraqi targets; recall, that Iran states these strikes were the least severe of the 13 options that they had considered. As such, this indicates that perhaps tensions have not entirely fizzled out, as the current market environment points towards. ING highlight that, recent price action, means speculators are now holding their largest net-long in Brent since October 2018; which they posit provides room for significant sell-off/liquidation of positions, particularly in the event that next week’s US-China signing disappoints. In-fitting with the de-escalation price action, spot gold has dropped below the USD 1550/oz mark, well off of yesterday’s USD 1600/oz+ highs. In other metals news, Brazilian state prosecutors intend to criminally charge Vale shortly regarding the Brumadinho dam collapse which resulted in the death of over 250 people.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Revisions: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,000, prior 222,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.72m, prior 1.73m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 63.9

Central Banks

  • 8am: Fed’s Clarida Discusses Economy, Monetary Policy in New York
  • 9:30am: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Regional Economic Conference
  • 11:30am: Fed’s Williams Speaks at BoE in London
  • 12:45pm: Fed’s Barkin Speaks in Richmond
  • 1:20pm: Fed’s Evans Speaks on Economic Outlook
  • 2pm: Fed’s Bullard Speaks to Wisconsin Bankers

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Another 24 hours down and another 24 hours dominated by developments in the Middle East. The reality is that there hasn’t been much else for markets to feed off in the early going this year however we do have the welcome distraction of a decent slew of Fedspeak today with no fewer than six speakers. Clarida and Williams, both of whom are seen as dovish, will likely garner the most attention with the market likely to be particularly focused on their comments on inflation targeting. A reminder also that tomorrow brings the final US employment report of 2019.

In the meantime, markets have essentially been one-way ever since we got the initial jerk sell-off to the missile strike on US bases in Iraq in the small hours of Wednesday out of the way. We spent most of yesterday waiting for President Trump’s statement which appeared to provide sufficient relief that the chances of a further ratcheting up of tensions has likely diminished for now. The President announced that he would impose further sanctions on the Iranian regime, thus avoiding further military escalation. He also confirmed that there were no American casualties as a result of the strikes and mentioned that “Iran appears to be standing down…which is a good thing for all parties concerned and a very good thing for the world”. Overnight, we’ve seen more positive headlines with US VP Pence saying that the US is receiving intelligence that Iran is sending messages to militias not to move against American targets, while the US also told the UN that it stands “ready to engage without preconditions in serious negotiations with Iran” to prevent escalation.

It would take a brave person to suggest that this is the last that we’ve heard of this geopolitical saga however for now there does appear to be comfort in the fact that any near-term re-escalation appears unlikely given the rhetoric over the last 24 hours from both sides. In markets the big mover has been the oil complex where Brent crude is now trading below $66/bbl – roughly $6 off the intraday highs of early Wednesday morning. That also means Brent is now trading back around the levels of last Friday and prior to the killing of Soleimani. Similarly the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, which rallied +0.49% and +0.67% respectively last night despite a late dip into the close on the back of reports of a rocket attack near the US embassy in Iraq touched new record highs intraday. As for safe havens, 10y Treasury yields rose +5.5bps to 1.875% meaning they’ve now fully retraced and even Gold is closing in on “pre-crisis” levels following a -1.14% decline yesterday. That was actually the first decline for Gold since December 27th and only the second in the last 13 trading sessions.

The risk-on trade has continued overnight in Asia where we’ve seen the Nikkei most notably climb +2.17%. There have also been decent gains for the Hang Seng (+1.06%), Shanghai Comp (+0.47%) and Kospi (+1.16%) while US equity futures have also nudged higher. There hasn’t been a huge amount else to report. Data in China showed that CPI held steady at 4.5% yoy in December albeit with the consensus expecting a rise to 4.7% yoy, while PPI rose from -1.4% yoy to -0.5% yoy (vs. -0.4% expected).

In other news, although Brexit has received less attention lately following Prime Minister Johnson’s decisive election victory, European Commission President von der Leyen was in London yesterday to meet with the Prime Minister. In a speech at the LSE, von der Leyen set out many of the EU’s existing positions, but notably said that “without an extension of the transition period beyond 2020, you cannot expect to agree on every single aspect of our new partnership. We will have to prioritise.” It comes as the UK government have refused to extend the transition period beyond the end of 2020 – a point made again by PM Johnson yesterday – even writing that into the text of the ratifying legislation. The pledge not to extend beyond 2020 was also made in the Conservative election manifesto, so it’s a pretty important one for the UK government, and comes in spite of the fact that under the Withdrawal Agreement, the two sides can agree to extend the transition period for up to 2 years before the start of July 2020. A big question for the upcoming trade negotiations will be to what extent the UK pursues alignment with the EU, and von der Leyen said that “The more divergence there is, the more distant the partnership has to be.” So it’s clear that Brexit isn’t going to go away as an issue over the coming year, with an important set of negotiations for the UK economy over the coming months.

Away from politics, the data yesterday was a bit of a mixed bag. In the US and ahead of Friday’s jobs report, the ADP’s report showed private payrolls rose by +202k in December (vs. +160k expected), while the previous month’s number was revised up to +124k (vs. +67k previously). However, in Europe, the final Euro Area consumer confidence reading for December fell to -8.1, the lowest since February 2017, while German factory orders were also down -1.3% in November (vs. +0.2% expected). In France too, the INSEE’s measure of consumer confidence fell to 102 in December (vs. 104 expected), its lowest level since July.

To the day ahead now, and we have a large number of central bank speakers, with BoE Governor Carney kicking off proceedings this morning. Later on from the Fed, we’ll hear from Vice Chair Clarida, Kashkari, Williams, Barkin, Evans and Bullard. From the ECB, we’ll hear from Weidmann, Villeroy de Galhau and Schnabel, and Bank of Canada Governor Poloz will also be speaking. Data releases include German industrial production and the trade balance for November, the Euro Area unemployment rate for November, as well as the preliminary Italian unemployment rate for the same month. Over in the US, we’ll get weekly initial jobless claims, while we’ll also get Canadian housing starts for December and building permits for November.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.99 POINTS OR 0.99%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 473.08 POINTS OR 1.68%   /The Nikkei closed UP 535.11 POINTS OR 2.31%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .88%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9319 /Oil DOWN TO 59.69 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.38 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9319 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9292 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA

China is arriving next week to sign the deal but it does not look likely that China can meet USA demands for increasing their purchasing quotas to the uSA

(zerohedge)

China’s Vice Premier To Sign Trade Deal In Washington Next Week

China’s Vice Premier Liu He, the country’s top trade negotiator, is expected to sign the Phase 1 trade deal in Washington next week, Gao Feng, a spokesman at the commerce ministry, told Reuters at a press event on Thursday. Gao said Liu and his trade team would visit Washington on January 13-15 to sign the deal: “Negotiating teams from both sides remain in close communication on the particular arrangements of the signing,” Gao said.

  • COMMERCE MINISTRY, ASKED ABOUT TRADE DEAL WITH U.S., SAYS VICE PREMIER LIU HE TO GO TO WASHINGTON TO SIGN PHASE ONE DEAL
  • CHINA COMMERCE MINISTRY, ASKED ABOUT TRADE DEAL WITH U.S., SAYS VICE PREMIER LIU TO TRAVEL TO WASHINGTON BETWEEN JAN 13 AND JAN 15
  • CHINA COMMERCE MINISTRY, ASKED ABOUT TRADE DEAL WITH U.S., SAYS TWO SIDES’ NEGOTIATING TEAMS REMAIN IN CLOSE COMMUNICATION ON PARTICULAR ARRANGEMENTS ON SIGNING

So far, there’s no public version of the trade deal. While President Trump has declared China will buy “massive” amounts of agricultural products, Liu’s trade team has yet to state hard commitments publicly. Han Jun, the vice-minister of agriculture and rural affairs, was quoted by Caixin on Tuesday saying that Beijing won’t increase its annual import quotas for wheat, corn, and rice. This could complicate things for the trade deal as Trump administration officials have pressured China to double its $24 billion pre-trade war purchases of U.S. farm goods to nearly $40 billion.

Han is also part of the trade negotiating team, said last month that China would increase annual quotas on wheat, rice, and corn. But as of Tuesday, Han and the trade team have changed their minds saying the quotas “won’t adjust for one country.” Refinitiv data shows purchases of the three grains from the U.S. totaled around $534 million.”

Although there’s certain types of high-quality wheat that China would look to import, maxing out the tariff rate quota would also weigh on domestic producers,” Darin Friedrichs, senior Asia analyst at INTL FCStone, said in a note Monday.

“China will be facing a tough balancing act of trying to satisfy the U.S. demands for large agriculture purchases, while also not hurting the rural population,” Friedrichs added.

Last month, we said with absolute certainty that China couldn’t uphold the trade agreement, even if it wanted to. Simply, there’s no way that China could increase U.S. farm good imports by 235% in 2020. It’s not just because China is protecting its domestic agricultural markets, but rather, it’s because Brazil and Argentina have ramped up shipments of grains to the Asian country, and due to the sticky contracts behind China’s new supply chains.

Goldman Sachs pointed out in a recent note that any massive increase in Chinese purchases from the U.S. “would likely be hugely disruptive to global agriculture markets, primarily crowding out Argentine and Brazilian supplies that have taken substantial market share since 2017 due to the trade war and much weaker currencies.” To get a sense of just how improbable such a surge in Chinese imports from the U.S. is, here is a visual representation of what this “disruptive increase” in U.S. agriculture exports to China would look like…

… and also why the assumption in exported quantities to China is, as Goldman points out, thoroughly “unrealistic.”

end

CHINA/USA

Top China expert has doubts over the trade deal as he claims that tensions are getting worse

(zerohedge)

Top China Expert Has Doubts Over Trade Deal As Tensions Are “Getting Worse”

The South China Morning Post (SCMP) is reporting that Jia Qingguo, a top foreign policy expert in China and professor of international studies at Peking University, said the “phase one” trade deal with the U.S. and China wouldn’t lead to “phase two” trade deal because “excessive” demands by Washington have left Chinese officials feeling “useless” to engage.

“Despite the recent announcement that we are going to have the first phase agreement, [the] relationship between China and the U.S. is still in deep trouble and is heading south rather than north. It is getting worse,” the SCMP cited Jia at the Regional Outlook Forum 2020 hosted by the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore on Thursday.

Niclas Kvarnström@nkvarnstrom

Started year of policy at @ISEAS Regional Outlook Forum & listened to David Shambaugh, Joseph Liow @FGodement and Jia Qingguo on great power relations. Clearly, and small states need to work together to safeguard rules – not least and

View image on Twitter

Jia, who was a panelist at the forum, said Sino-American relations are in pretty “bad shape.”

He said the trade war has morphed into a tech, stating that the U.S. has blacklisted some Chinese firms from purchasing semiconductor components from U.S. companies. This has forced firms, especially Huawei, to develop domestic microchips as an alternative.

“[This] makes it impossible for the two countries to interact and benefit from interaction … It is bound to affect the trade relationship between the two countries,” he said.

james crabtree

@jamescrabtree

“China’s patience is wearing thin,” argues Jia Qingguo, dean of school of international studies at peking uni, at @ISEAS regional forum. Says conciliatory moves with US seen as “useless”. leaders
increasingly convinced they need to struggle against containment instead.

View image on Twitter

As for the hard agriculture commitments in phase one trade deal, he said it was “very unreasonable” for China to purchase that much from the U.S.

Jia said a “whole deal” might not be likely, considering the Trump administration wants “to topple the Chinese government and contain China simultaneously.”

He explained that the U.S. feels threatened by China’s ascension to become a global superpower, and a great power competition was underway.

“The U.S. has come to the South China Sea and tells us how to handle territorial disputes their way,” said Jia. “But China has not been telling the Americans to do all these things.”

He said the U.S. military is increasing tensions between both countries by conducting Freedom of Navigation Operations in the South China Sea near China’s militarized islands.

Jia said a cold war could break out between both countries — for that to happen, there would need to be continued military confrontation, economic decoupling, and ideological rivalry.

“[U.S. President Donald] Trump has not been able to decouple [our economies] as much as he may have wished. But the chance for China and the U.S. to get into a cold war is increasing,” he warned.

With increasing doubts of a full trade deal between the U.S. and China, this comes at a time when President Trump has switched from pumping a phase one agreement to a phase two deal — all of this is optically pleasing in an election year.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK/EUROPE

This is probably what the UK wants: to leave without a deal as they seek better terms with the uSA and other nations.

(zerohedge)

Brussels Warns BoJo Full Trade Deal By Year’s End Is “Basically Impossible”

Here we go again…

During a speech at the London School of Business early on Wednesday ahead of a meeting with British PM Boris Johnson, new European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that it will be “basically impossible” for the UK to negotiate the entirety of a hoped-for trade deal with the European Union, increasing the likelihood that the trade relationship between the two former partners will revert to WTO rules at the end of this year.

Following his dynamic election triumph last month, Johnson has been working to enshrine a deadline for negotiations into law, part of a plan to keep the pressure on the EU after the debacle over negotiating Johnson’s revised withdrawal agreement.

Ursula von der Leyen

Von der Leyen insisted that ‘both sides’ must pick priorities during the negotiation. The message to Johnson is clear: Just because he’ll be dealing with a new EU Commission, doesn’t mean he’s going to face an easy path. The negotiations will be tough, and the EU is more than willing to walk away from the table. She also described Johnson’s insistence on finishing negotiations by the year’s end as unrealistic.

“The transition time is very, very tight…so it is basically impossible to negotiate all that I have been mentioning, so we will have to prioritise,” she said.

Following her remarks, which were chronicled in detail by the FT and Reuters, Von der Leyen offered a summary of her remarks in a twitter thread published after her talk:

Ursula von der Leyen

@vonderleyen

It’s a great pleasure to be back at the London School of Economics.
👇🏻 https://twitter.com/eu_commission/status/1214868533802360832 

European Commission 🇪🇺

@EU_Commission

“Old friends, new beginnings − building another future for the EU-UK partnership” 🇪🇺🇬🇧

− President Ursula @vonderleyen speaks at the London School of Economics.https://www.pscp.tv/w/1PlKQVprBDYGE

Ursula von der Leyen

@vonderleyen

: Before the end of the month, I expect both the British & European Parliaments to ratify the agreement. In just over 3 weeks, on the 31st of January, the UK will spend its last day as a member state. This will be a tough and emotional day.

Ursula von der Leyen

@vonderleyen

But when the sun rises again on February 1st, the EU & the UK will still be the best of friends and partners. The bonds between us will still be unbreakable. We will still contribute to each other’s societies. We will still have a lot to learn from each other.

Ursula von der Leyen

@vonderleyen

Truth is: Our partnership cannot and will not be the same as before. And it cannot and will not be as close as before because with every choice comes a consequence. With every decision comes a trade-off.

View image on Twitter

Ursula von der Leyen

@vonderleyen

The more divergence there is, the more distant the partnership has to be. And without an extension of the transition period beyond 2020, you cannot expect to agree on every single aspect of our new partnership. We will have to prioritise.

Ursula von der Leyen

@vonderleyen

But we are ready to design a new partnership with zero tariffs, zero quotas, zero dumping. A partnership that goes well beyond trade and is unprecedented in scope.
And we are ready to work day and night to get as much of this done within the timeframe we have.

View image on Twitter

If negotiations continue along the current track, the EU will need to reexamine “every single aspect of our new partnership”. She added that “I want to be very honest about what lies ahead of us,” suggesting that she didn’t want the UK to be unpleasantly surprised if the negotiations stall out early.

The new commission president devoted substantial time in her speech to the importance of foreign and security policy cooperation, taking aim at a chit that Johnson reportedly plans to use to exert maximum leverage. The EU and UK “must build a new, comprehensive security partnership to fight cross-border threats, ranging from terrorism to cyber security to counter-intelligence,” von der Leyen said.

She also suggested that Brexit “will not resolve” any of the tensions between the British and their Continental partners.

“The truth is that Brexit will not resolve any of the existing challenges for the EU nor the UK,” von der Leyen. “Even being apart and not bound by the treaties, it will require intensive co-operation.”

Von der Leyen also highlighted financial services as an area where “all will change” after Brexit, warning the City that cross-border retail banking would become more complicated.

Finally, von der Leyen said that the “uncertainty” surrounding the “inevitably tense” Brexit withdrawal agreement negotiations will not also come to characterize the negotiations over a new trade deal. “This is done and dusted as far as I am concerned.”

However, starting the negotiations with a direct, public challenge to Johnson probably isn’t the best way to engender cooperation and prevent a repeat of the withdrawal agreement negotiation nightmare.

end

UK// China//USA

The USA is putting a lot of pressure on the UK to abandon Huawei. If the UK cannot get a deal with trade deal with Europe, then the USA is essential and then the UK will no doubt drop Huawei.

(zerohedge)

US Steps Up Pressure On UK To Abandon Huawei Ahead Of Decision   

The Trump administration is about to make the final call to the U.K. to abandon the plan to upgrade its telecommunication networks with Huawei, sources told Reuters.

The U.K. will make the final decision at the end of the month, whether to use Huawei equipment to build out the country’s 5G network has been met with fierce criticism from officials in the Trump administration.

Huawei spokesman told Reuters that U.K. lawmakers have confirmed the company won’t use its equipment for intelligence sharing networks: “Our 5G equipment does not pose a threat to information security,” the spokesman said, adding that, “We are confident the U.K. government will take an evidence-based approach when making its decision about Huawei’s inclusion in the 5G network.”

Another source told Reuters that U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo would discuss the Huawei situation with British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab at a meeting in Washington on Thursday. Pompeo is expected to pressure Raab to reject the use of Huawei.

endThe Trump administration seems to be “cocking the pistol,” one source said, who had direct knowledge of the British government’s stance on Huawei told Reuters. “What’s unclear is how, when, or indeed if it will actually be fired.”

“The security and resilience of the U.K.’s telecoms networks is of paramount importance. The government continues to consider its position on high-risk vendors, and a decision will be made in due course,” a U.K. spokesman said.

While Trump administration officials are attempting to persuade the U.K. to block Huawei, the country is turning out to be an important battleground in the geopolitical tug-of-war with China.

 end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/IRAQ/USA

It looks like the missile attacks on USA bases in iraq was on infrastructure and not aimed at troops. However the Chief commander states that this attack is the first of many

(zerohedge)

IRGC Commander Confirms Iranian Missile Strikes Targeted “Military Apparatus”, Not Troops

Continuing with some of the punchy, bellicose rhetoric that top Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, have exhibited in recent days, a senior IRGC commander said Thursday morning that Iran’s missile attacks against US installations in Iraq were merely the start of a vendetta that will play out across the region.

IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh said the “appropriate revenge” for America’s killing of Qasem Suleimani would be to expel American troops from the region. Unfortunately, despite an apparent misfire earlier this week, it looks like US troops will remain in Iraq for some time to come.

Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh

Offering some insight into Tehran’s thinking, Hajizadeh appeared to confirm the suspicions of many military experts by saying Iran’s missile attack was precisely targeted to avoid killing combatants and instead target the base’s ability to operate.

“We were not after killing. We were after hitting the enemy’s military apparatus,” Hajizadeh is cited as saying by semi-official Fars news agency.

We noted this yesterday following the publication of aerial photos from the bases that were attacked. Analysts said the strikes appeared to be targeted to disable the bases, not kill soldiers.

Dara Massicot@MassDara

I’m not an Iran expert. But I am a military analyst. When I see the impact points of Iran’s strike on Asad air base, I don’t see purely symbolic strikes designed to avoid casualties, as some have speculated. The strikes appear to target the base’s military capability.

View image on Twitter

However, while President Trump has apparently celebrated the de-escalation of tensions, Iran wants America to know that their true retaliation won’t arrive for some time – and when it happens, it will most likely be carried out by some proxy group. After all, Tehran has washed its hands of responsibility for the militias it finances across the region.

And like President Rouhani suggested earlier, Hajizadeh insisted that the missile strikes were only the beginning of a “larger operation.”

“Iran attack on U.S. bases was the beginning of a larger operation that will carry on across region.”

Earlier, Rouhani warned of “a very dangerous” response if the US continues to Iran, even as Tehran signals to its European partners that it will revert to observing the terms of the JCPOA if its European partners also observe their deal commitments, as the AP explains. Rouhani added Thursday that Iran would cooperate with UN inspectors.

Meanwhile. Abdollah Araghi, a member of Iran’s joint chiefs of staff, warned the US that the IRGC “will impose a more severe revenge on the enemy in the near future,” according to Iran’s Tasnim news agency.

end

IRAN

IRAN CHANGES ITS STORY ON THE UKRAINIAN AIRLINER CRASH. It sure looks like a missile whacked right into the fuselage

(zerohedge)

Iran Changes Plane Crash Story As Ukrainian Theories Include Possible Missile Strike

Iran has changed its story about what caused a Boeing 737 operated by Ukrainian International Airlines to plunge out of the sky minutes after taking off from the airport in Tehran.

After initially blaming mechanical malfunctions for the crash, a version of events that was almost instantly refuted by video footage, experts and the airline in Ukraine, Iran is now claiming that UIA Flight 752 tried to turn back after take off, suggesting that the cause of the crash was something other than the misfiring of one of Iran’s Russian-made missile-defense systems, according to Bloomberg.

A video that made the rounds yesterday appeared to show that the jet was already on fire when it plunged out of the sky.

In a surprising move that wasn’t initially expected, Iran has invoked an international agreement allowing it to receive assistance from other countries, including the US. A Ukrainian team has reportedly arrived in Tehran, and according to a report in Israeli newspaper Haaretz, investigators are looking for signs of Russian-made missiles among the debris at the wreckage site.

After initially appearing to support reports of mechanical error, the Ukrainian government has officially changed its stance to supporting several theories, including the possibility that a missile or bomb blew the plane out of the sky.

In the US, American agencies like the NTSB are trying to figure out whether it’d be legal to engage with the Iranians under the terms of international sanctions, which President Trump is now planning to tighten. They’re also concerned about sending people to Iran given the recent strikes.

The four scenarios reportedly be

BALTIC DRY INDEXing studied, according to a senior Ukrainian minister, are the possibility of a mid-air collision with a drone, a terror attack with an on-board bomb, a missile strike and mechanical failures.

The State Department issued a statement offering to assist Ukraine with the investigation, but notably that statement didn’t mention helping Iran. “The United States calls for complete cooperation with any investigation into the cause of the crash,” it read. After dozens of Canadians died in the crash, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has also demanded that Canada take part.

end

Iran

Video captures the moment the missile stroke the Boeing 737 over Tehran

(zerohedge)

Video Captures Alleged Moment Missile Strikes Boeing 737 Over Tehran

With the narrative surrounding the crashed Ukrainian Boeing 737 changing by the minute, shifting away from a initially proposed theory of a technical error and shifting toward speculation the plane was accidentally or not taken down by someone (Iranians? Israelis? CIA?) on the ground, “evidence” is suddenly starting to emerge to validate this latest theory. And so moments ago, an unverified, unconfirmed video has appeared on the Telegram network, purporting to show the moment a missile strikes the Ukrainian flight PS752.

Amichai Stein

@AmichaiStein1

Iran: Unverified video purports to show Ukrainian flight and the moment a missile strikes

Embedded video

David Cenciotti

@cencio4

Interesting video allegedly showing the moment a missile hits the B737. All the usual caveats apply (unverified source, unverified location, etc.). https://twitter.com/Roman_012/status/1215335999997448195 

Roman_01@Roman_012
Replying to @EliotHiggins

New video from Telegram

Embedded video

Needless to say, this remains absolutely unconfirmed for now. As a reminder, moments after the crash the first unconfirmed footage of the Ukrainian airplane showed the plan on fire falling near Tehran.

Ali Hashem علي هاشم

@alihashem_tv

First footage of the Ukrainian airplane while on fire falling near

Embedded video

end
IRAN/USA/
USA officials highly confident the Iran has accidentally shot down our Ukrainian passenger jet
(zerohedge)

US Officials “Highly Confident” Iran Accidentally Shot Down Ukrainian Jet

Update 2: The New York Times is bringing us a little more insight into how American officials know whatever it is they know about the circumstances surrounding the fate of UIA Flight 752, which crashed just hours after an Iranian assault on American assets in Iraq.

Apparently, officials from the NTSB have been invited to participate in the investigation by Iran, and a preliminary assessment apparently led them to conclude that the plane was almost definitely accidentally shot down by a missile, echoing the destruction of Malaysian Air Flight 17, which was shot down over Ukraine.

* * *

Update: During what appears to be an informal press gaggle at the White House late Thursday morning, President Trump went off on the Iranians, claiming that the US attacked Suleimani to stop him from bombing an embassy, before adding that he has “doubts” that the Ukrainian jet crash was caused by mechanical error.

He also reportedly said that new sanctions on Iran had already been approved.

  • TRUMP SAYS IRANIANS SOUGHT TO ‘BLOW UP’ U.S. EMBASSY
  • NEW SANCTIONS ON IRAN ALREADY APPROVED BY TREASURY, TRUMP SAYS
  • TRUMP SAYS HAS DOUBTS UKRAINIAN JET CRASH CAUSE WAS MECHANICAL
  • U.S. OFFICIALS ARE NOW CONFIDENT UKRAINE AIRLINER WAS SHOT DOWN BY IRANIAN MISSILE, CITING SATELLITE DATA -GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS
  • TRUMP: MAY WAIT FOR PHASE TWO CHINA DEAL UNTIL AFTER ELECTION

Other reports citing anonymous US officials are also claiming that US intelligence knowns precise details of the attack, including the fact that Iran brought the plane down with two missiles.

* * *

Things just got even more complicated for Tehran as the deadly crash of UIA Flight 752 looks set to become the center of a new international diplomatic crisis.

That’s because, just as we suspected, the deadly crash of UIA Flight 752 over Tehran Tuesday night, which occurred just hours after the regime launched a barrage of missiles at American installations in Iraq, was apparently the result of a misfiring of Iran’s missile defense system. 

Or at least that’s what Newsweek is reporting, citing senior US intelligence officials.

The Ukrainian flight that crashed just outside the Iranian capital of Tehran was struck by an anti-aircraft missile system, a Pentagon official, a senior U.S. intelligence official and an Iraqi intelligence official told Newsweek.

Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, a Boeing 737–800 en route from Tehran Imam Khomeini International Airpot to Kyiv’s Boryspil International Airport, stopped transmitting data Tuesday just minutes after takeoff and not long after Iran launched missiles at military bases housing U.S. and allied forces in neighboring Iraq. The aircraft is believed to have been struck by a Russia-built Tor M-1 surface-to-air missile system, known to NATO as Gauntlet, the three officials told Newsweek.

As of now, the base assumption is that the shooting was accidental…

Two Pentagon officials assess that the incident was accidental. Iran’s anti-aircraft were likely active following the country’s missile attack, which came in response to the U.S. killing last week of Revolutionary Guard Quds Force commander Major General Qassem Soleimani, sources said.

Earlier today, Tehran vehemently denied the “rumors” that the plane was shot down, claiming that the plane took a suspicious turn shortly after takeoff that Iranian officials seemed to suggest indicated some kind of mechanical error. Outcry over the attack has been muted, probably because, as we’ve pointed out before, Iran’s commercial airline industry has had several high-profile safety slip-ups over the years, as its aging planes sometimes struggle to stay airborne.

But the attack on Tuesday was different. The plane seemed to plunge from the sky just 2 minutes after taking off from the international airport in Tehran. Video of the accident released late Thursday appears to show it being struck by a projectile of some kind.

Iran’s behavior in the wake of the crash has been suspicious. It is reportedly planning to keep some of the data from the plane’s ‘black box’ from officials at the Ukrainian airline that was operating the plane when it crashed.

Just as we anticipated, the markets are treating this news as vindication for Boeing, which sunk in the aftermath of reports that another Boeing 737 had crashed.

Boeing shares rebounded on reports that the crash was apparently out of their control:

The question now is how does the world handle this information. Though the shooting was probably a mistake, 176 people, mostly non-Iranians, are dead. Canada and the US are already demanding more transparency from Tehran. Where do we go from here?

 

What’s the West’s next move? And will this escalate odds of another violent confrontation

END
IRAQ/IRAN
More rockets fired on USA bases North of Baghdad
(zerohedge)

Rockets Reportedly Hit Near US Base North Of Baghdad (Again)

Another day, another rocket (alleged) rocket attack on a US airbase in Iraq.

Al-Sumaria reports that rockets hit the Balad Air Base, about 40 miles north of Baghdad, where US troops are stationed.

The source said in an interview with Alsumaria News, “A missile, whose type was not specified, fell this evening, to the Fadlan area of ​​the Dujail district near Balad Air Base,” without giving further details.

 

Local news also reports no people were harmed.

This is the same base as was hit 5 days ago.

As a reminder, contrary to the carefully built narrative that the US and Iran have become nothing short of BFFs, the risk for re-escalation remains huge. As Stratfor noted this week, Iraq, in particular, could present a theater for action, as Iranian-allied Iraqi militias have also been galvanized by the recent U.S. strikes and likely will be keen to seek retribution.

If an attack by those militias kills a U.S. soldier or contractor in Iraq or Syria, the risks of escalation to a direct military exchange between the United States and Iran would again climb. After all, the United States will hold Iran responsible for the actions of some of its allied militias, especially the mostly Shiite Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq.

Developing…

6.Global Issues

BALTIC DRY INDEX

The Baltic Dry Index is a good Bellwether for global growth. It has been plunging to new lows on a daily basis and we are now at levels of 2008

(zerohedge)

Baltic Dry Plunges Most Since 2008 As Tariff-Frontrunning Ends

The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index fell for the 20th consecutive session to an eight-month low (the longest streak of losses since Nov 2015) as world trade continues to slump amid signs the so-called “front-loading” effect ahead of tariff deadlines has ended.

The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels that ferry dry bulk commodities across the world, plunged 2.3%, or about 18 points, to 773 on Wednesday (according to Refinitiv data), the lowest level since April 2019:

  • The capesize index .BACI fell 74 points, or 5.8%, to 1,197 – its lowest since May 8. Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 170,000-180,000 tonne cargoes including iron ore and coal, decreased $2 to $9,020. 
  • The panamax index .BPNI declined 42 points, or 5%, to 803 points, its lowest since Feb. 27. 
  • Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 tonnes to 70,000 tonnes, dipped $386 to $7,223. 
  • The supramax index .BSIS fell 18 points to 593.

Beleggers Belangen analyst Karel Mercx tweeted that “the Baltic Dry Index is the most important indicator for the rates of bulk shipping. The rate is determined based on the rates that are paid to transport raw materials on the 25 busiest shipping routes. Prices are falling sharply due to the cooling global economy.”

View image on Twitter

With the index already tumbling the most since 2008, it may suggest the global economy is, in fact, continuing to decelerate.

The chart below makes clear that the spike in shipping rates was a one-off event spurred by importers front-running tariffs in 2019, now that is over, shipping rates are plunging as a manufacturing recession in the US deepens.

And while shipping demand tends to be an economic bellwether of the global economy, it seems that semiconductors have priced in a recovery that might be fantasy.

Plunging shipping rates suggests the global economy continues to decelerate, not accelerate like everyone is hoping.

The question is, what shocks people back into the view the macroeconomic headwinds counting to mount? Is it heighten geopolitical tensions in the Middle East?

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1082 DOWN .0005 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.41 UP 0.373 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3039   DOWN   0.0065  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO JAN 31/2020//

USA/CAN 1.3059 UP .0022 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 5 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1082 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 27.99 POINTS OR 0.99% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 473.08 POINTS OR 1.68%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,88%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 473.08 POINTS OR 1.68%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.99 POINTS OR 0.91%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 88% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 535.11  POINTS OR 2.31%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1547.00

silver:$17.90-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.87% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.35 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 97.43 UP 3 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.41% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.01%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.45%//UP 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,38 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 93 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.18% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.56% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1103  DOWN     .0009 or 9 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.50 UP .463 OR YEN DOWN 463  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3062 DOWN .0043 POUND DOWN 43  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 55 basis points to 1.3091

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9322    ON SHORE  (UP)..

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9278  (YUAN UP)..

 

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8660 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.01%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.89 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.37 UP 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.47 UP 17  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 10.33  0.25%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 174.88 POINTS OR 1.31%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 11.55 POINTS 0.19%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 9.60 POINTS or 0.10%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 184.68 POINTS OR 0.77%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 59.40 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 65.23 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    61.27  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.01 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 1 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.18 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  59.64//

 

 

BRENT :  65.44

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.85..DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.33..DOWN 3 BASIS PTS..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1105 ( DOWN 8   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.52 UP .487 (YEN DOWN 49 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.44 UP 14 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3065 DOWN 40  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8691

 

 

the Russian rouble 61.31   DOWN 0.05 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3066 DOWN 30 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.9322  (ONSHORE)/

USA/CHINESE YUAN( CNH)  6.9266 (OFSHORE)

 

 

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.18%

 

The Dow closed UP 2.65 POINTS OR 0.01%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 22.04 POINTS OR 0.27%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.53 CLOSED DOWN .44

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.834%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Melt-Up To ‘Most Expensive’ Since DotCom Bust, Bonds Bid Too

At 18.5x, the S&P 500’s Forward P/E is at its highest since the dotcom bust (and the tech sector’s valuation is at its richest to the broad market since the peak in 2007)…

Source: Bloomberg

And as stocks have soared, so Americans’ comfort has roared back to its highest since right before the dotcom collapse too…

 

Source: Bloomberg

And it’s all because of fun-durr-mentals…

Source: Bloomberg

“This is blasphemy! This is madness! – Madness? This is the stock market!”

The Dow came close to tagging 29,000 today, but is now at its most overbought since right before volmageddon and 2018’s collapse…

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq continues to lead on the week (Small Caps lagging notably)…

 

But futures show the chaos better as Nasdaq exploded almost 4% higher off Tuesday night lows…

 

Short Interest is at its lowest in 2 years…

Source: Bloomberg

AAPL was up again today (up 18 of the last 20 weeks) – pushing it to the most overbought since 2004 – which sparked a 24% drop in the stock…

Source: Bloomberg

And AAPL’s not up on the fundamentals…

Source: Bloomberg

TSLA just won’t stop!

Source: Bloomberg

In fact TSLA is now worth more than GM and Ford combined…

Source: Bloomberg

And TSLA’s rally is all about fun-durr-mentals too…

Source: Bloomberg

But today saw a pullback – the biggest down day since the squeeze really started on 11/22…

Bonds were also bid as stocks rallied (helped by a strong 30Y auction)…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were all lower today (even as stocks soared) with the long-end outperforming (30Y -4bps, 2Y -1bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

This notably flattened the yield curve…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied once again, back up to two-week highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos remain higher on the week, with Bitcoin leading the bunch…

 

Commodities were all lower today with crude leading the week…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI hit a $58 handle intraday…

Gold futures held above $1550…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, there’s this… looks like The Fed has this Repo ‘tempest in a teapot’ all “contained”…

And no matter which way you look at it, valuations are at or near extreme record highs…

We give Rabobank the last word as it summed things up so perfectly:

Indeed, like Elon Musk, markets are happily dad-dancing on stage, unaware of just how stupid they actually look. Of course, they get wild applause from other dads – just like a certain global ride-sharing app, which bleeds money and faces crucial bans and legal challenges, now planning to build flying cars in order to open up exciting new areas of potential litigation, regulatory restriction, and loss-making. I guess the hope is once we all go over the inevitable brink, the flying cars might save some of us.

Trade accordingly!

 END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Skyrm: today it is Skyrm who warns that the Fed is now trapped as it must continue to supply cash to needed Repo Market

(zerohedge)

Top Repo Expert Warns Fed Is Now Trapped: “It Will Take Pain To Wean The Repo Market Off Easy Cash”

Yesterday we reported that with the Fed’s first oversubscribed term repo in three weeks…

… coupled with a surge in amount of overnight repo submission, indicated that the funding situation in the repo market had again deteriorated sharply, which was odd since we are now two weeks into the new year and further away from the time when the repo market was supposedly in distress due to the year-end funding constraints.

Indeed, something appears amiss, because as Curvature Securities’ Scott Skyrmwrites in his daily Repo Market Commentary note, the total overnight and term Fed RP operations on Friday were greater than on year end! On year-end, the Fed had pumped a total of $255.95 billion into the market verses $258.9 billion on Friday.

The problem with the broken repo market and the Fed’s respective Repo operations, similar to the problem observed with QE and the Fed’s balance sheet in general over the past decade, is that the market had gotten addicted to the easy Fed liquidityunleashed in September (via temporary repo ops), and then again in October (via permanent T-Bill purchases).

As Skyrm writes, “it’s easy to see how the Repo market can get addicted to easy cash from the Fed when the stop-out rates for the RP operations are 1.55% – behind the offered side of the market.”

But, as the repo strategist adds, as the Fed keeps injecting cash, the market gets used to it.

Which is great in the short-term as it sends risk assets soaring, but become a major issue over the long-term: The long-term problem is that  some investor cash (real money cash) that was once going into the Repo market is now going elsewhere”, Skyrm explains.

Indeed, the problem is that repo rates are trading in the lower end of the fed funds target range. When GC rates were higher in the range, Repo general collateral, as an investment, was more competitive than other overnight rates. But now that cash has gone to other markets.

 

In short, just as the market got addicted to QE and the result was a 20% drop in the S&P in late 2018 when markets freaked out about Quantitative Tightening, the Fed’s shrinking balance sheet, and declining liquidity, Skyrm cautions that “it will take pain to wean the Repo market off of cheap Fed cash” since “it‘s a circle” which can be described as follows:

For the Fed to end daily RP ops, they need outside cash to come back into the Repo market. For the Repo market to attract cash, Repo rates need to move higher. For rates to move higher, the Fed needs to stop RP ops.

The problem is that stopping RP ops could spark another repo market crisis, especially with $259BN in liquidity pumped currently – more than at year end – via Repo. It also means that the Fed is now unilaterally blowing a market bubble with its repo and “NOT QE” injections, and yet the longer it does so the more impossible it becomes for the Fed to extricate itself from the liquidity pathway without causing a crash.

Or stated simply, the longer the Fed avoids pulling the repo liquidity band-aid, the bigger the market fall when (if) it finally does. The question then becomes whether Powell can keep pushing on the repo string until the November election, because a market crash in the months preceding it, especially since it will be of the Fed’s own doing, will result in a very angry president.

END
Again in today’s repo operations basically fully subscribed. Remember that the totals so far and greater than at year end and thus the problem is not just regulatory problems
a must read…
(zerohedge)

Market’s Repo Addiction Getting Worse With Latest Term Repo Operation

Two days after we reported that a disturbance may be brewing below the surface of the repo market again, after the first oversubscribed term repo in over three weeks, when on Jan 7 the Fed received $41.1BN in submissions for its $35BN two week repo, we got another indication just how strong the market’s addiction to the Fed’s easy repo money has become, when moments ago the Fed announced that its latest 2-week term repo operation was also almost oversubscribed, as $34.3BN in securities ($23.3BN in TSYs, $11BN in MBS) were submitted for today’s $35 billion operation, as dealers continue to scramble to the Fed for liquidity which they are no longer using for merely “regulatory” year-end purposes (since it is no longer year-end obviously), but are instead using it to pump markets directly.

Today’s operation, which was just shy of the maximum $35BN allowed, was the second highest term repo since Dec 16, and suggests that as repos are now maturing at a rapid burst (as we noted last week in “Mark Your Calendar: Next Week The Fed’s Liquidity Drain Begins“), dealers remain as desperate as ever to roll this liquidity into newer term operations.

The latest term repo also confirmed what we discussed overnight in “Top Repo Expert Warns Fed Is Now Trapped: “It Will Take Pain To Wean The Repo Market Off Easy Cash“” in which we noted that according to Curvature Securities’ repo expert Scott Skyrm, something appears amiss asthe total overnight and term Fed RP operations on Friday were greater than on year end! On year-end, the Fed had pumped a total of $255.95 billion into the market verses $258.9 billion on Friday. 

The problem, as Skyrm explained, is that the market had gotten addicted to the easy Fed liquidity unleashed in September (via temporary repo ops), and then again in October (via permanent T-Bill purchases): “it’s easy to see how the Repo market can get addicted to easy cash from the Fed when the stop-out rates for the RP operations are 1.55% – behind the offered side of the market.” But, as the repo strategist added, as the Fed keeps injecting cash, the market gets used to it.

Which is great in the short-term as it sends risk assets soaring, but become a major issue over the long-term: The long-term problem is that  some investor cash (real money cash) that was once going into the Repo market is now going elsewhere”, Skyrm explains.

Indeed, the problem is that repo rates are trading in the lower end of the fed funds target range. When GC rates were higher in the range, Repo general collateral, as an investment, was more competitive than other overnight rates. But now that cash has gone to other markets.

In short, just as the market got addicted to QE and the result was a 20% drop in the S&P in late 2018 when markets freaked out about Quantitative Tightening, the Fed’s shrinking balance sheet, and declining liquidity, Skyrm cautions that “it will take pain to wean the Repo market off of cheap Fed cash” since “it‘s a circle” which can be described as follows:

For the Fed to end daily RP ops, they need outside cash to come back into the Repo market. For the Repo market to attract cash, Repo rates need to move higher. For rates to move higher, the Fed needs to stop RP ops.

The problem is that stopping RP ops could spark another repo market crisis, especially with $259BN in liquidity pumped currently – more than at year end – via Repo. It also means that the Fed is now unilaterally blowing a market bubble with its repo and “NOT QE” injections, and yet the longer it does so the more impossible it becomes for the Fed to extricate itself from the liquidity pathway without causing a crash.

Or stated simply, the longer the Fed avoids pulling the repo liquidity band-aid, the bigger the market fall when (if) it finally does. The question then becomes whether Powell can keep pushing on the repo string until the November election, because a market crash in the months preceding it, especially since it will be of the Fed’s own doing, will result in a very angry president.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Terrorists in Iraq Fearing U.S. Capabilities Are Fleeing and Hiding after Soleimani Killing

U.S. officials have intercepted chatter and received confirmation that terrorist leaders in Iraq have been fleeing the region and have gone into hiding…

https://saraacarter.com/terrorists-in-iraq-fearing-u-s-capabilities-are-fleeing-and-hiding-after-soleimani-killing/

Fox’s @ChadPergram: McConnell: There will be no haggling with the House over Senate procedure. We will not cede our authority to try this impeachment. The House Democrats’ turn is over. The Senate has made its decision

Graham on Pelosi: “If by the end of the week she has not transmitted the articles I hope we will change the rules so we can start the trial without her.” Takes 51 yeas to alter impeachment rules. But 60 or 67 votes (depending on how it’s handled) to end a filibuster on that score

 

Leader McConnell @senatemajldr: A majority of the Senate has decided that the first phase of an impeachment trial should track closely with the unanimous bipartisan precedent that all 100 senators supported for the first phase of the Clinton trial in 1999.

 

@RNCResearch: [Dem Rep.] Ilhan Omar laughs and jokes around as her colleague discusses U.S. casualties in Iraq   https://youtu.be/W5ynxOvUT2E

 

Govt Wants To Jail Flynn for ‘Refusing to Lie’ For Prosecution in Rafiekian Case

It was a stunning reversal from recommendations made by prosecutors last year and it is outrageous.  “if you don’t do what government prosecutors want, even if they want you to lie, you’re going to do prison time,” Sidney Powell…

   Prior to Tuesday’s reversal the prosecutors had requested that Flynn “receive a sentence at the low end of the Guidelines range.”…

     Strzok, who interviewed Flynn was fired for lying. Former FBI Director Andrew McCabe, who along with Comey, both who originally targeted Flynn, was fired by former Attorney General Jeff Sessions for lying multiple times to Horowitz’s team. He has been referred to the DOJ for prosecution and faces possible prosecution.  Former CIA Director John Brennan, along with other CIA officials, are being questioned by Durham. Brennan lied to Congress when in the spring of 2017, he told the House Intelligence Committee that Steele’s dossier played no role in the creation of intelligence community assessment on Russian interference. It was not true and we know this now based on Horowitz’s report.

    Former National Security Advisor James Clapper has also been caught lying to Congress…

https://saraacarter.com/govt-wants-to-jail-flynn-for-refusing-to-lie-for-prosecution-in-rafiekian-case-heres-my-take-on-it/

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

 

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