JAN 10//POOR JOBS REPORT SENDS GOLD AND SILVER HIGHER: GOLD RISES $5.80 TO $1558.80//SILVER IS UP 16 CENTS TO $18.08//HUGE QUEUE JUMPING IN BOTH GOLD COMEX AND SILVER COMEX AS BANKERS SEEK OUT PHYSICAL METAL//IN ANOTHER OMINOUS MOVE THE BANKERS PROVIDED ANOTHER 3027.500 OZ OF “PLEDGED GOLD” TO CONTINUE TO KITING OF PAPER GOLD//GENERAL HAFTER IS A FEW KILOMETERS FROM TRIPOLI CITY CENTRE//HE CAPTURED THE BIG CITY OF SIRTE THIS WEEK//USA TELLS MAHDI THAT THEY ARE NOT LEAVING IRAQ//MORE SWAMP STORIES//YOUR WEEKEND READING: ALASDAIR MACLEOD AND GATEWAY PUNDIT!!

GOLD:$1558.80 UP $5.80    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$18.08 UP 16 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

 

Gold :  $1562.00

 

silver:  $18.10

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 10/37

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,551.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/09/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 01/13/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 10
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 5
661 C JP MORGAN 10
737 C ADVANTAGE 26 8
800 C MAREX SPEC 11
905 C ADM 4
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 37 37
MONTH TO DATE: 2,528

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN CONTRACT: 37 NOTICE(S) FOR 3700 OZ (0.1150 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  2528 NOTICES FOR 252,800 OZ  (7.8631 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JAN

 

 

33 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 165,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 379 for 1,895,000 oz

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 7830 UP 14 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8070 UP 249

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A TINY SIZED 121 CONTRACTS FROM 234,093 UP TO 233,972 DESPITE THE RAID AND OUR STRONG 24 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A   STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  1062 AND MAY: 0 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1062 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1062 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1062 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 5.310 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 24 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

1.940     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN JAN

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 24 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED 941 CONTRACTS. OR 4.705 MILLION OZ…..

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JAN:

11,674 CONTRACTS (FOR 7 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 11,674 CONTRACTS) OR 58.370 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1667 CONTRACTS OR 8.338 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN:  58.37 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 8.33% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          58.37   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 58.37 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 121, DESPITE THE HUGE 24 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /THURSDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1062 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA)

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED  SIZED: 941 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1062 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 149 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND HAPPENED DESPITE A 24 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.92 // THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.171 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 167% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JAN MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 33 NOTICE(S) FOR 165,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018.  AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN: 1,940,000  OZ
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY SIZED 108 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 785,015 MOVING CLOSER TO OUR ALL TIME RECORD (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. 

THE SMALL FALL IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE A STRONG LOSS OF  $5.50 IN PRICING  ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// THURSDAY// / 

 

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 7258 CONTRACTS:

JAN 2020: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB>  7258 CONTRACTS APRIL: 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 785,015,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A  STRONG BUT CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7150 CONTRACTS: 108 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 7258 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 7150 CONTRACTS OR 852,700 OZ OR 26.53 TONNES.  THURSDAY WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF $5.50 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND DESPITE THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 22.23  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (DOWN $5.50) THEY WERE TOTALLY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO  FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD OUR HUGE GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (22.23 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER.

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN SILVER AS THEY MORPH INTO GOLD AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE FEBRUARY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR GOLD:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF JAN. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN : 67,136 CONTRACTS OR 6,713,600 oz OR 208.82 TONNES (7 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9590 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 208.82 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 208.82/3550 x 100% TONNES =5.88% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     208.82  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 208.82 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 108 DESPITE THE STRONG  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK THURSDAY($5.50)) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7258 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7258 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A STRONG BUT CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 7150 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7258 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 108 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 22.23 TONNES). ..AND THIS  INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $5.50 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING//RAID// AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $5.80 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A CRIMINAL “PAPER WITHDRAWAL” OF 4.69 TONNES

THIS WAS USED TODAY IN AN ATTEMPT TO WHACK GOLD AND FAILED MISERABLY..

JAN 10/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 882.12 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

 

WITH SILVER 16 CENTS TODAY

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

JAN 10/INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 121 CONTRACTS from 234,073 DOWN TO 233,972 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 1/2 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

EFP ISSUANCE 966

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  1062:  AND MAY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1062 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 108  CONTRACTS TO THE 1062 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 941 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4.705 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 1.940 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE STRONG 24 CENT LOSS GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1062 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.59 POINTS OR 0.08%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 77,20 POINTS OR 0.27%   /The Nikkei closed UP 110.70 POINTS OR 0.47%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .72%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9234 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9234 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9216 ///MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

CHINA/USA/PHASE ONE

China not moving too fast as we promised on those huge supposedly big agricultural purchases from the USA

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

The UK retail industry saw its worst year ever in 2019

(zerohedge)

ii)Europe

This is frightening: We now have huge Nigerian mafia members permeating throughout Europe.

be careful on your travels

(Judith Berman/Gatestone)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)ISRAEL/IRAQ/IRAN/SYRIA

Israel bombs a weapons depot belonging to Iranian militia on the Syrian/Iraq border

(zerohedge)

ii)ISRAEL

This will be a game changer and cost a few dollars of electricity to operate.  It can fire a beam continually giving protection to the area.  Leave it to the Israelis to come out with this system..they have been working on this for over 10 years.

(zerohedge)

 

 

iii)TURKEY/LIBYA/RUSSIA

Hafter is a few kilometers from Tripoli centre.  He also this week took Sirte, a major city in Liyba. Hafter rejects the Russia/Turkey ceasefire pla

(zerohedge)

iv)IRAN

A superb commentary outlining what it going on behind the scene in Iran
(Gateway Pundit)

v)IRAQ/USA

Iraqi PM states that the USA must establish a mechanism for troop withdrawal. The USA will not leave until their bases are paid for

(zerohedge)

vi)IRAN/USA CANADA/UK FRANCE

THIS SHOULD BE FASCINATING: Tehran invites the uSA Ukraine France and Canada to examine the crash dat after all the plane parts have been moved to a new location

(zeorhedge)

vii)IRAN/USA

The uSA is now sanctioning the rest of the Iranian economy. This will paralyze them!

(zerohedge)

viii)TURKEY/RUSSIA/SYRIA/IRAN

Russia and Turkey declare a ceasefire in Idlib province Syria home of the last remaining Isis fighters.  The reason: stem the flow of migrants into Turkey

(zerohedge)

ix)IRAQ/USA

Pompeo to Mahdi: We are not leaving as it is “our right” to be here as “a force for good”
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Alasdair Macleod… a must read.

The end game being played out and how gold will be the centre point

(courtesy Alasdair Macleod)

ii) J Johnson’s comex commentary

(courtesy Johnson)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/this morning official jobs report/USA

Despite the plug numbers, they still lost big. Only a 145,000 gain as payrolls tumble by 111,000 and wage gains slump to a 17 month low

(zerohedge)

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a) BOEING

Emails from Boeing employees talking about the design of Boeing 737 Max etc

(zerohedge)

b)What is the world coming to?  Credible sources form internal secret documents reveal that a female suicide bomber of middle eastern persuasion is coming up from the South to enter the uSA

(zerohedge/DHS)

c)Retail Apocalypse!!

(courtesy Mac Slavo/SHFTplan.com)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

this could be fascinating: a new lawsuit claims that Rod Rosenstein led a task force that spied on Sharyl Attkison and her computer

(Heine/AMGreatness.com)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY STINY SIZED 108 CONTRACTS TO 785,015 MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  THE TINY LOSS IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE  THE STRONG LOSS OF $5.50 IN GOLD PRICING // THURSDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7258 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 7258  AND APRIL: 0  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 7258 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN STRONG BUT CRIMINALLY SIZED 7150 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7258 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A TINY SIZED 108 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL BY $5.50). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED A STRONG AND CRIMINALLY SIZED  7150 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES…..

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  7150 CONTRACTS OR 715000 OZ OR 22.23 TONNES.  AND THE PRICE OF GOLD WAS DOWN???? 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  785,015 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 78.01 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,426 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,426/2200 OR 110.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

We are now in the   NON active contract month of JAN.  This month is generally one of the poorest of delivery months for the year.  Here we have a total of 63 open interest left to be served upon, for a LOSS of 117 contracts.   We had 151 notices served up on Wednesday so we surprisingly gained another 34 contracts or an additional 3400 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of January. I can now safely say that the comex is under attack for metal!!

The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed a LOSS OF 17,116 in contracts DOWN to 482,704.  

March received another 127 contracts to stand at an open interest of 640.

The next active delivery month after March is April and here we witnessed a gain of 15,188 contacts up to 79,832 oi contracts.

We had 37 open interest notices served upon today for 3700 oz

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY TINY SIZED 121 CONTRACTS FROM 234,093 DOWN TO 233,972 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND WEDNESDAY’S SMALL  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A STRONG 24 CENT LOSS IN PRICING/.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

Here we have a GAIN of 9 contracts UP to 41. We had 23 notices served on WEDNESDAY, so we gained 32 contracts or an additional 160,000 oz will stand for delivery during this non active delivery month of January. Silver along with gold are under attack for metal!! Our bankers have their work cut out for them.

 

 

 

After January, we have  the non active month of February and here we saw a GAIN of 5 contracts TO A LEVEL OF  474.  March is a very active month and here we witness a LOSS of 834 contracts DOWN to 180,018

 

 

We, today, had 33 notice(s) filed for 165,000, OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 383,592 contracts    

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY438,363 contracts

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JAN/GOLD

JAN 10/2020

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 4699.98 oz

 

HSBC

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
37 notice(s)
 3700 OZ
(0.1150 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
26 contracts
(2600 oz)
0.0808 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2528 notices
252,800 OZ
7.8631 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

 

ii)into HSBC: 4699.98 oz

 

total deposits:  4699.98  oz

 

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil oz

ADJUSTMENTS:  0

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  ADDED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE JAN 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 37 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 10 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2528) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JAN. (63 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (37 x 100 oz per contract) equals 255,400 OZ OR 7.9444 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JAN

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (2528 x 100 oz)  + (63)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (37 x 100 oz )which equals 255,400 oz standing OR 7.944 TONNES in this  NON active delivery month of JAN.

WE GAINED A STRONG 34 CONTACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 3400 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AND THUS REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY REFUSING TO TRAVEL TO LONDON THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 34.11 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    7.944 TONNES

 

total: 129.84 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 6 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 19.2540 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 129.84  tonnes

 

Thus:

129.84 tonnes of delivery –

19.2540 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 110.58 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 34.017 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,334,232.623 oz or  41.50 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 109,365.15 oz (34.017 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC  which cannot settle upon:  240,581.146 oz  ( 7.4830    TONNES)//+
    total  7.38989 tonnes
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  109,365.15  (34.017 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,707,376.499 oz 270.83 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

JAN 10
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 608,525.348 oz
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
NIL oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
33
CONTRACT(S)
(165,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
9 contracts
 45,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  379 contracts

1,895,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

 

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.4% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/319.730 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of BNS:  201,233.88 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 201,233.88   oz

We had 1 adjustment:

i) 608,525.348 oz was removed from Scotia  dealer and this entered  Scotia customer and we will deem this a settlement

 

total dealer silver:  84.107 million

total dealer + customer silver:  319.854 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the JAN 2020. contract month is represented by 33 contract(s) FOR 165,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  JAN, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 379 x 5,000 oz =1,895,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (41) and the number of notices served upon today 33 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JAN/2019 contract month: 379 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN (41)- number of notices served upon today (33) x 5000 oz equals 1,940,000 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month.

WE GAINED 32 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 160,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX AND REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY DOING THIS THEY ALSO NEGATED RECEIVING A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 33 notice(s) filed for 165,000 OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  85,888 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 109,924 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 109,924 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 549 million  OZ   78.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

and 81.48% of total silver open interest.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.59% ((JAN 10/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.62% to NAV (JAN 10/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.59%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.56 TRADING 15.02///DISCOUNT  3,48

 

END

 

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.80 TODAY:NA HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.69 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.12 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 9.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 A GOOD INVENTORY PAPER DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.18 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP #15.40 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $24.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONES INTO THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30

JAN 2/2020//WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $4.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25 TONNES

DEC 30//WITH GOLD UP $2.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.10 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.51 PAPER TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.86 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $14.60//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.64 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.56 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.66 TONNES

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: 1 SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.22 TONNES

DEC 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 13/ WITH GOLD UP $8.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 10//WITH GOLD UP $3.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $.60: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.34 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 5/2019: WITH GOLD UP $3.60 TODAY: A  SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 4/2019/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

 

DEC 2 /WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

 

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

 

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JAN 10/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 882.12 tonnes

*IN LAST 741 TRADING DAYS: 55.33 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 641 TRADING DAYS: A NET 111.72. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ//

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.268 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ///

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ//

JAN 7.//WITH SILVER UP 23  CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ..

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440 MILLION OZ///

JAN 3/2020//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440  MILLION OZ///

SINCE DEC 23 WE HAVE HAD A 94 CENT GAIN CORRESPONDING TO A 2.39 MILLION OZ OF PAPER WITHDRAWALS..AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

JAN 2/2020/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.616 MILLION OZ

DEC 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 30/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ

DEC  26//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 24/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ///

 

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.028 MILLION PAPER OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 17//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 747,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ/?

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13//WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 10//WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:  A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.495 MILLION OZ//// INVENTORY RESTS  AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.869 MILLION OZ FROM SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.100 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 5//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 3//WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.512 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ..

DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

 

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

 

 

JAN 9.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

356.958 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.82/ and libor 6 month duration 1.88

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .06

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1,83%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.97

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.14

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Here Is Why Gold Could Rise Above $7,000 An Ounce

by Charlie Morris via Money Week (Part II)

The gold price could have a lot higher to go from here

In Part I, I reiterated that gold is in a bull market, and I suggested that a bullish target for $7,166 is both logical and plausible.

So how did I reach that conclusion?

Allow me to talk you through it, step by step below.

How inflation could get going again 

US real interest rates are falling again.

The real yield is the difference between the US government bond yield and the expected future inflation rate. It tells you how much you could make, after inflation, by investing in government bonds. The current rate is 0.1%. That doesn’t sound like much – but is much better than what you’d get in Europe.

This means that gold has a tail wind. And in my opinion, real rates will keep on falling in what could become a major theme for the decade.

I am not saying that the Federal Reserve will slash rates to zero like the Europeans. But rates will stay lower for longer, and inflation will rise. We can be relatively sure that the Fed will keep rates low, because they want to keep the party going.

We saw that a year ago, as the ten-year bond yield went above 3%. The result? The stockmarket nosedived by 20%. They don’t want to see that repeated.

The missing piece is inflation. Many believe that it won’t rise, because high levels of debt or demographic trends will keep it under control. But there’s an external risk – namely the price of oil.

Energy is the most important input cost in our lives. For example, food production requires diesel. If the oil price rises, food prices must follow suit. That squeezes the consumer, harms the economy and reduces purchasing power. And even if the green revolution surprises us all, it will take years before it becomes a dominant force.

In the meantime, Asia keeps on growing. According to the OECD, not only is China forecast to fly past the almighty US by 2030, but India too. The US could be humiliated into third place.

President Donald Trump doesn’t like that idea and hence a new cold war with China is underway. Europe might be even more embarrassed, as it may not have a single country in the top five. Indonesia, a nation of 300 million people by 2030, might squeeze past Germany. With Japan’s place relatively secure, an Asian decade seems increasingly likely.

On that point, while energy consumption has remained flat in the OECD countries, the fast-growing non-OECD countries have seen their consumption nearly double this century. It grows by 3.3% per year and shows no signs of slowing down.

The US shale boom came to the rescue post-2006, bringing another six million barrels per day (mbpd) to market. That has kept a lid on the oil price since 2014, but if the non-OECD countries carry on at this pace, a future oil shock becomes more probable than possible. Consider that the OECD countries are growing too, and you can see how this Malthusian story might play out.

And let’s not forget the growing US budget deficit (annual government overspending). Nor are deficits unique to the US, indeed they are coming back into fashion. Japan has a stimulus package; the UK has one; Europe wants one. China will join the party too, and the world wants infrastructure like it’s the industrial revolution all over again. Demand for commodities will soar. The new gold bull market is simply telling you what lies ahead.

Laying the foundations for the epic gold bull market of the 2020s

As we approach 2020, it’s worth considering where gold might be by 2030. The ‘00s saw a 280% increase, and the ‘10s, a 35% increase. For the 2020s, I am forecasting a 415% return with a price target of $7,166. I’ll explain why.

The Atlas Pulse fair value model (see chart above) treats gold as a 20-year, zero coupon, inflation-linked bond. Thus falling real rates are bullish and rising real rates are bearish, with historic inflation acting as the long-term tailwind.

Note that the fair value has made a six-year high; recovering the lost ground since the taper tantrum. Also note that gold has returned to a premium above fair value. With those points in mind, my bullish scenario has three components:

1. Falling real yields will boost the fair value to $3,386
2. The premium (to fair value) will grow to 50% from the current 7%
3. Actual inflation for the decade is 48%

The US long-dated real yield fell from 4.3% to 1.4% over the 2000s. That boosted the fair value of gold by 80%. The 2010s saw further easing of real yields to 0.1%, which boosted gold by a further 15%. These don’t seem like big numbers – and they aren’t. That’s because real yields are made up of the bond yield and expected inflation, but these two components are not equal in their contribution.

This important point is that the gold rally of the 21st  century has had nothing to do with inflation – it’s been all about the falling bond yield. By my calculations, falling nominal yields have boosted gold by around 270%. On the other hand, weak inflation has actually held gold back, albeit slightly.

I hope this becomes clear on the table below showing future fair value scenarios. The US 20-year bond yield is currently at 2.08% and 20-year inflation expectations are at 1.77%. That puts the fair value at $1,377, which is slightly below the current price, and highlighted in grey.

If the real yield was to fall to -2%, different possible scenarios are highlighted in green. Notice how a 0% bond yield with 2% inflation brings us to $2,296. In contrast, a 2% bond yield with 4% inflation gives $3,386. That’s a big difference for the same real yield scenario of -2%. My 2030 scenario sees a -2% real yield driven by managed rates at 2% and inflation rising to 4%. That results in a $3,386 price target.

Can US real rates move to -2%? They can. UK real rates are currently -2.2%, Swedish are -1.7%, and -1.3% in Germany. All you’d need is a couple of rate cuts to anchor the long bond, while inflation quietly rises towards 4%. With infrastructure spending about to splurge, it’s looking quite likely.

But it doesn’t end there as gold bull markets also attract a premium.

A rising gold premium

We should remind ourselves that the last bull market saw the gold price premium rise between 2005 and 2011. It started at a 55% discount and ended at a 51% premium by 2011. The monthly chart hides that (shown below), but it happened.

Gold also went to a significant premium back in 1980, at the height of the bull market. It must have been at least 50%, but we’ll never know because inflation expectations weren’t known at the time, as TIPS hadn’t been invented. Still, there was unquestionably a premium, because the animal spirits were off the record, as the history books remind us.

The gold premium tends to be a trending affair. It would be wrong to suggest that just because an asset has a fair value, it must trade there. That’s not how markets work. More likely, the asset will mean-revert around fair value over the course of market cycles.

What caught my attention was the new high for fair value on the previous chart, and what looks like a rising trend on this chart. More importantly, bull markets and premiums go hand in hand. Therefore, if my bull market forecast is correct, the premium will be right too.

The current gold premium is 7%. A move to a 50% premium means there is another 43% to be had before we get there. That means the gold price will touch $3,386 x 43% = $4,842.

But it doesn’t end there either. Next, we must add actual inflation. That is the inflation that actually happens, as opposed to what is expected.

Inflation doesn’t matter in the short term – but it really matters in the long run

In the short-term, inflation doesn’t matter very much. If you are fortunate enough to live in the developed world, you don’t notice rising prices week after week. But over longer time frames, inflation is an enormous force. Look at the inflation by decade in the US, as per Bloomberg’s CPI figures.

1950s: 24%
1960s: 28%
1970s: 158%
1980s: 64%
1990s: 34%
2000s: 28%
2010s: 19%

At 19%, this past decade has seen low inflation. Perhaps that is unsurprising as we had a banking crisis. But that was 11 years ago, and low inflation won’t last forever. Normally change occurs when the status quo is deeply embedded in group think.

The fiscal programmes come courtesy of a belief, by our masters, that cheap money will continue indefinitely. Those same folks thought the gold price would fall indefinitely in the late 1990s, and were heavy sellers as a result. How wrong they were then and how wrong they could be now. If inflation returns, it won’t be the first time our masters got it wrong.

I don’t have a crystal ball for inflation in the 2020s, but the bond market does. It thinks the answer will be 19%; precisely what it was last decade. I am 100% sure that it won’t be 19%. Whether it’s oil, deficits, wages or policy, inflation will rise. I would hazard a guess that it will average 4% per year, resulting in 48% over the next decade.

And that neatly brings the gold price forecast to $4,842 x 48% = $7,166.

So there you have it. A rational case for a gold bull market with a logical outcome of $7,166 by 2030. The margin for error is wide of course, but it makes sense to me.

The beauty of having a target is that it makes you think. And the beauty of having a model, is that it enables you to continuously rethink your target. I may of course revise it, come the next issue – but that’s what the model is for.

• Charlie Morris is the head of multi-asset at Atlantic House Fund Management, and is also a regular contributor to MoneyWeek. The two articles were first published in the Atlas Pulse newsletter, in late December 2019.

NEWS and COMMENTARY
Gold inches lower amid rising equities as Mideast tensions fade

Gold’s rally fizzles on de-escalating U.S.-Iran tensions

Weekly jobless claims fall but number of unemployed surged to a more than a 1 1/2-year high

World Bank warns of global debt crisis following the fastest increase in borrowing since the 1970s (230% of GDP)

Jim Rickards: A new gold standard — orderly or chaotic?

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)
09-Jan-20 1547.85 1550.75, 1186.89 1188.49 & 1393.99 1396.14
08-Jan-20 1582.85 1571.95, 1206.13 1197.35 & 1421.87 1412.87
07-Jan-20 1566.50 1567.85, 1190.85 1197.05 & 1402.80 1406.52
06-Jan-20 1576.85 1573.10, 1198.09 1197.29 & 1408.44 1406.51
03-Jan-20 1547.40 1548.75, 1182.37 1184.48 & 1389.57 1387.99
02-Jan-20 1520.55 1527.10, 1151.36 1161.51 & 1358.46 1366.91
31-Dec-19 1523.00,                1157.78 & 1358.06
30-Dec-19 1511.50 1514.75,  1152.37 1152.57 & 1350.22  1351.91
27-Dec-19 1510.60  1511.50, 1156.36 1152.67 & 1356.37  1353.85
24-Dec-19 1490.85                  1152.58 & 1345.94

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ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Alasdair Macleod: How to return to sound money

 Section: 

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, St. Helier, Channel Islands
Thursday, January 9, 2020

Given the current fiat money system is on a path towards its own destruction it is not surprising that there has been increasing talk of a monetary reset. Without a completely different approach and by retaining the same institutions and macroeconomic concepts, any such reset is bound to fail.

This article provides a template for an enduring sound money solution that will deliver economic progress while eliminating destructive credit cycles. It posits that a properly constructed gold and As well as the establishment of an incorruptible monetary system, the state’s role in the economy must be curtailed, budgets always balanced, banking reformed, and the private sector allowed to accumulate the wealth necessary to provide the investment for producers to produce.

Monetary reform involves a clear understanding of why free markets succeed and why socialism, together with neo-Keynesian macroeconomics, are responsible for the impending monetary and economic collapse. It will require a complete change of socio-political and economic cultures, but properly approached it can be done. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/how-to-return-to-s…

* * *

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gold substitute monetary system, which also includes the removal of bank credit inflation as a means of providing investment capital, is the only way that lasting stability and prosperity can be achieved.

END

 

Alasdair Macleod… a must read.

The end game being played out and how gold will be the centre point

(courtesy Alasdair Macleod)

How to return to sound money

Given the current fiat money system is on a path towards its own destruction it is not surprising that there has been increasing talk of a monetary reset. Without a completely different approach and by retaining the same institutions and macroeconomic concepts, any such reset is bound to fail.

This article provides a template for an enduring sound money solution that will deliver economic progress while eliminating destructive credit cycles. It posits that a properly constructed gold and gold substitute monetary system, which also includes the removal of bank credit inflation as a means of providing investment capital, is the only way that lasting stability and prosperity can be achieved. As well as the establishment of an incorruptible monetary system, the state’s role in the economy must be curtailed, budgets always balanced, banking reformed, and the private sector allowed to accumulate the wealth necessary to provide the investment for producers to produce. 

Monetary reform involves a clear understanding of why free markets succeed and why socialism, together with neo-Keynesian macroeconomics, are responsible for the impending monetary and economic collapse. It will require a complete change of socio-political and economic cultures, but properly approached it can be done.

Introduction

There has been very little commentary in recent years about the benefits of sound money, being limited almost entirely to followers of the Austrian school of economics. Even less has been written about how to back out of inflationism, end unsound money and return to a monetary arrangement which cannot be corrupted by governments and the banking system.

The most notable attempt was by Ludwig von Mises who appended a chapter on the subject in his updated 1952 version of The Theory of Money and Credit[i] The circumstances were very different from that of today. At that time, the US had corrupted its gold exchange standard to progressively exclude the ability of individuals to demand gold for paper dollars. And both Keynesianism and socialism, in the West at least, were in their earlier days. Today, we face more of an end game where considerable damage has been done since to the status of circulating money, and we face the prospect not of reform but of a collapse of the entire fiat money system.

It is a situation which, if nothing had been done in the 1950s, von Mises predicted in his writings would eventually happen. We are now witnessing not just the failure of state currencies, but also the economic damage wrought. That the root of the problem is a combination of progressive inflationism fuelling a credit crisis is gradually becoming obvious to a small but growing number of critics.

Recent events, which are germane to all our economic prospects in 2020 and beyond, are now unmasking a deterioration in demand for manufactured output and declining credit quality consistent with the ending of the expansionary phase of the credit cycle. The increase of American trade protectionism at this point in the credit cycle has worrying echoes of 1929, when the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was passed by Congress and signed into law by President Hoover in 1930.

The opening months of 2020 should see yet more statistical confirmation that the world’s production is declining, only concealed by renewed monetary inflation. Recession and its consequences are the central banks’ worse fear and they are already in accelerated printing mode in yet another attempt to forestall it.

The immediate future of fiat currencies is centred on the dollar’s prospects as the reserve currency. Dollar-centric markets remain in denial, believing the dollar will always be supported by a flight to safety if things cut up rough. In the short-term, it might be a self-fulfilling prophecy. But after an initial Pavlovian reflex, the dollar’s future measured in other state currencies depends on the relative needs of economic actors on a national basis and the actual ownership position.

Here, the dollar fares badly, with dollar assets and cash in foreign hands totalling about $24 trillion, and US ownership of non-dollar assets less than half that at $11.297 trillion (end-2018). US ownership of foreign short-term debt securities was $502bn at that date, of which only $92bn was in foreign currencies the rest being in dollars, according to TIC data from the US Treasury. Other than foreign listed securities, which are small in total compared with foreign ownership of US securities, that $92bn is all the foreign currency American residents have to sell in a financial meltdown.

Of their $24 trillion total, foreigners owned $19.4 trillion of dollar assets, of which more than $8 trillion is in equities, and includes short-term debt securities of $980bn. Additionally, dollar deposits held through correspondent banks totalled $3.6 trillion last October. Dollar liquidity in foreign hands is therefore nearly $13 trillion, before one considers foreign investment in US Treasuries, which is mostly held by foreign governments and official organisations. Clearly, when foreign balances adjust to a world of contracting trade, dollars will be sold heavily, destroying its value and disrupting US capital markets with very little in the way of flows the other way to offset it.

In these circumstances it will be impossible for the US Government to fund its budget deficits through capital inflows as it is wont to do. And given the absence of domestic savings accumulation, which would detract from final consumption and therefore undermine the GDP statistic anyway, trillion-plus deficits will have to be financed almost entirely by monetary and bank credit inflation.

Sooner or later this is bound to lead to a severe crisis for the dollar and therefore all the fiat currencies that regard it as King Rat. The crisis will be further fuelled by a mixture of escalating government debt, falling purchasing power for the dollar, and increasing interest rates, the last being driven by the market response to a declining currency in terms of its purchasing power. It is a debt trap which will be reflected at the very least in a substantial decline of the full faith and credit in the US Government.

Eventually, possibly in a matter of only a few years, the dollar could become worthless. The few commentators aware of this danger have for some time been arguing for a currency reset without much idea how it can be implemented. It is almost certain that central banks will convene to cook up a new monetary plan as the dangers to the current system increase. But given the statist culture behind the problem, the basis of any state-initiated plan will surely include an attempt to secure the state’s monetary role and to extend its powers over markets. With the same underlying characteristics, any new currency arrangement based on a modification of the state-issued currency system is guaranteed to fail. History tells us that when the fiat route is pursued a second time, the public is already aware of government trickery and the second failure is swift (cf. France 1789-97 – assignats followed by mandates territoriaux which hardly lasted six months).

From an economic standpoint, the introduction of sound money will yield immediate benefits for the population compared with a failing currency regime. The problems obstructing it are a lack of understanding of catallactic theory by professorial economists and the establishment’s relentless grip on bureaucratic and political power.

To illustrate the required scale of the whole socio-economic and monetary reform involved, a solution which works must be proposed. Such a proposal must have sound incorruptible money at its heart, because no other arrangement will survive over time. It requires the termination of the central banking model. That central banks will be required to make their policy roles redundant virtually guarantees that the destruction of the fiat currency system, and its immediate replacement on a reset, are bound to occur before a sound money system of money and credit can be contemplated.

We should proceed with this assumption. Our sound money will be a phoenix rising from the ashes of monetary and economic destruction.

This article provides a template for how a new monetary system based on sound incorruptible money can be implemented. It addresses the following topics: the reintroduction of gold as circulating money handing all monetary power to its users, dealing with existing government debt, reforming the banking system, and resetting economic theory to where it was before Keynes worked up fallacious roles for the state. Properly addressed and planned, its implementation should be less difficult than it at first appears, and any nation following the courses of action in this article is likely to see substantial economic benefits in less than a year.

Sound money – it can only be physical gold

For the avoidance of doubt, a gold substitute is a currency in all its forms fully backed by and convertible into gold on demand by all of its users. A gold exchange standard permits the expansion of unbacked bank credit and does not prevent governments inflating total money supply.

Before critics jump to the conclusion that I am promoting a role for gold, it should be clear that my primary interest is sound money, which happens to be gold. So, yes, I am promoting gold but only as sound money; the order is sound money first, gold second. This is why I (and my colleagues at Goldmoney) insist the proper role of physical gold is as money, and it is not to be regarded as an investment, though related media, such as ETFs, derivatives and mining shares are properly classified as gold-related investments.

There should be no need to reiterate why gold emerged as the money of people’s choice, ever since the division of labour progressed beyond the exchange of goods through barter. But it is worth making the point that the difference between today’s money of the state and gold is that the state uses the debasement of its currency as a means of wealth transfer from the people to itself and those in its favour. It is an instrument of funding additional to taxation.

With sound money monetary debasement is strictly limited. The quantity of gold required as money in the global economy is only part of above-ground stocks and its quantity and distribution is decided by economic actors, not the state. The obvious source of global supply is mining, which runs at about 2% of above-ground stocks, in line with long-term population growth. The other source of deployment is scrap, recycling gold to and from other uses. This is why prices measured in gold are inherently stable.

As a common form of trusted money, gold also facilitates trade across borders, and when trade is settled in gold or gold substitutes which a government or bank cannot magically create out of thin air, there are no trade imbalances other than temporary shifts in the ratio of gold to goods that align price levels across jurisdictions.

Clearly, the reintroduction of sound money requires a radical change of socio-political and economic culture. Constrained by a sound money regime, the inability of a government to run continual deficits will remove considerable power from the state. Sound money also forces governments to abandon socialising legislation and makes ordinary people more responsible for their own actions.

Since the abandonment of the Bretton Woods agreement, the degree of monetary inflation has been substantial. The rise in the price of gold from the pre-war peg of $35 has to an unknown degree corrected earlier monetary inflation when the dollar was first put on a gold exchange standard, following the Gold Standard Act of 1900. It has continued to reflect monetary inflation thereafter, particularly following the suspension of all convertibility in 1971. The adjustment to date has not compensated for all of the increase in the quantity of fiat dollars in existence, but that matters less than a conversion price which can be maintained for all time, because if it is to succeed the new dollar must be a proper gold substitute.

The setting of the conversion price is the most important decision to be exercised by the issuer of new dollars. But as we have seen, an arm of the government is always ill-equipped to take monetary decisions, so the sensible policy would be to announce the decision to return to gold as the primary form of money and allow the market a period of time to approximately settle the pricing of gold relative to that of the new state currency. At the same time, consolidation terms for exchanging old dollars for the new should be announced, which will stop the old currency sliding into worthlessness, if it hasn’t already, and ensure the new currency is widely distributed at the outset.

During the period between announcing the scheme and its implementation, the central bank or Treasury department (in the case of the US) should cause an independent metal audit of its gold stocks to be conducted, having established an oversight committee drawn from neutral observers to oversee the process.

It is vital to ensure markets trust the existence of gold reserves from the outset. In the case of the US Treasury, with a stated 8,134 tonnes in possession a proper metal audit may take too long. A metal audit has to confirm the existence, identity, weight and purity of every bar and coin held in or allocated to the reserve backing the currency. In any event, there may be more gold in the Treasury’s possession than needed to back the new currency at the outset.

As soon as sufficient progress in the metal audit has been made for the auditor to indicate the degree of discrepancies (if any) then the approximate rate will have been set by markets in the knowledge there is sufficient gold to allow the new currency to circulate as a substitute. The remaining gold stocks (if any) can be held in abeyance.

Once the ratio between the new currency and a weight of gold is fixed, decisions can then be taken over matters such as the form of coinage. A dollar/gold rate would have been defined. For example one gram of gold might be represented by 10 new dollars. A new dollar therefore would be ten centigrams of gold. And every new dollar issued electronically, in paper or coinage form would only exist if it is 100% backed by gold held at the central bank.

All restrictions on gold ownership must cease. In order to ensure the state does not surreptitiously elide from a currency substitute system towards a gold exchange standard, it is vital to have gold circulating alongside its substitutes. This is easily facilitated by issuing high-value gold coins, the basis of the British sovereign, which ties a face value to a weight of fine gold. Depositors withdrawing funds from a bank must have the facility to withdraw them either in gold coin or paper substitutes.

Coins for small amounts would circulate as token money, instead of gold itself. This would permit the monetary authorities to issue practical, hard-wearing alloy coins for circulation, being fully backed by gold. The issuance of these tokens will also replace small-denomination banknotes to downplay the role of bank notes generally, thereby enhancing the role of gold as the true circulating medium. With the elimination of unbacked bank credit (see below) cheques and electronic transfers will also be fully backed by gold and be recognised as gold substitutes.

Converting government bond debt

Accompanying a fiat currency collapse, there is bound to be a substantial quantity of government debt outstanding, which will have increased alongside the collapse of its fiat currency. The conversion rate for old debt denominated in failing fiat, alongside all other debt, would be fixed at the rate decided between the old fiat and the new currency operating as a gold substitute. Obviously, under a gold substitute regime, debt interest becomes payable either in new dollars or convertible into their gold equivalent on demand.

Under our new regime the issuance of new government debt can only be funded by an increase in personal savings. Having abolished the central bank and its role in setting interest rates any extra funding would have to incur a market rate for borrowing gold. While the interest rate experience of a credible gold exchange standard suggests that in time the rate would probably settle down at two or three per cent, adjusted for the tendency for prices of goods and services measured in gold to fall over time makes increased government borrowing expensive in real terms. There is therefore a strong incentive to avoid budget deficits and not increase debt.

There is also the consideration of the redemption arrangements of existing government bonds. As the old currency loses purchasing power, funding would only have been achieved at continually increasing yields, leaving nearly all outstanding debt trading at a significant discount to redemption value. The conversion of this debt into new dollars at an interest rate related to borrowing in gold would significantly lower interest costs.

Existing debt management procedures suggest that even with a balanced budget, maturing debt would have to be continually rolled over. Besides providing business for bond brokers unnecessarily, the ease with which this could be done could encourage the political class to slip into its bad old ways.

A better way to deal with the redemption problem is for the government to offer conversion terms into new consolidated loans with no final redemption date and a coupon rate high enough to ensure the conversion. On maturity, outstanding debt would be rolled into the new undated bonds. At the same time, a sinking fund should be established to allow the government to buy back its debt in the market when it is propitious to do so. The signal to the political class from this arrangement is that debt should be reduced over time and not just refinanced.

The British experience during the Napoleonic wars was that the yield on their consolidated loans reflected wartime risk. War funding proceeded by issuing new tranches of consolidated loans at a discount, so that a 3% gold coupon at, say, 60% of the nominal bond value becomes a yield to an investor of 5% in perpetuity. By backing the government at a time of war, an investor was rewarded with a handsome gain for doing so, particularly when the gold standard was reintroduced.

While we are assuming the introduction of a new gold substitute will be in peacetime, it is likely that public trust in government finances will be initially low, improving in time as confidence in both government finances and economic conditions improve. Like the wartime backers of the British government before Waterloo, early supporters of the new system will be rewarded with gains on their government bonds as yields begin to stabilise closer to long-term gold rates. These benefits, and indeed all gains and income from savings, must not be taxed in order to allow and encourage savers to replace fiat-money inflation as the source of all monetary capital.

Banking reform

The current banking system permits banks to lend credit into existence by creating money as loans are drawn down. There are consequences that flow from this facility. It permits banks to lend considerably more than their capital, expanding credit in good times and making the economy appear better than it really is. In this manner, every monetary unit of lending margin can become ten times profit, or even more, relative to a bank’s own capital. But credit expansion tends to lead to escalating demand for loans that cannot be satisfied without a very dangerous level of balance sheet gearing. Relatively cautious bankers then stop expanding their loan book, loan rates then rise and businesses, whose cost of working capital has risen, find their business plans are no longer profitable. It is always the riskier borrowers who start to find themselves in difficulties, and lending caution then spreads like a bushfire through the banking community.

The credit cycle turns, and the business cycle with it. Without the interposition of bank credit none of this would happen. In the absence of the creation of bank credit, failure of businesses becomes a healthy random event. Far from engendering stability, the combination of central bank inflation and the ebb and flow of commercial bank credit are destabilising, increasingly so over successive cycles.

The problem has arisen because in our financial system bank deposits are not customer deposits at all, but loans from so-called depositors to the banks. The customer’s possession of a bank deposit in a reformed banking system must be clearly addressed by banks being reorganised into either acting as deposit banks, being monetary custodians and paying agents for their customers, or loan arrangers which broker loans and investments. The same bank would be prohibited from doing both functions.

Additionally, the removal of limited liability for the bank’s directors would be a strong disincentive to bank fraud, so the entire panoply of expensive and ineffective bank regulation becomes redundant.

Resetting economic theory and the state’s economic role

For the purposes of this article, we have assumed that the implementation of a sound money regime will occur after the fiat money system has failed, and there will therefore be sufficient mandate from the public for the architects of a sound money and new banking system to proceed. It will be plainly evident that the old system has failed, and that macroeconomic and mathematical economists with their theories bear considerable responsibility for it. Quickly grasped, the opportunity for change will be there, but it will not silence the inflationists entirely.

All radical reformers have faced similar difficulties. It requires someone single-minded enough to weather all criticism and to focus on a pure solution. In the teeth of embedded inflationist habits and beliefs at the heart of government, it is perhaps a greater challenge than that faced by Hjalmar Schacht who tamed Germany’s hyperinflation in 1923, but did not address the bank credit problem. Or by Ludwig Erhard who was the architect of a new currency and of Germany’s post-war recovery in the late 1940s.

Since those earlier times, the intellectual drift away from free markets and sound money towards state intervention and inflationism has continued apace. Very few are the university professors who reject the state’s right to supremacy over free markets and show an understanding of the benefits of sound money. So ingrained are neo-Keynesian and socialist misconceptions that the implementation of monetary reform should be undertaken in a carefully planned order.

The initial action must be to introduce gold as money and the currency be reformed to act unquestionably as a gold substitute. This initial focus will almost certainly have full public support, with everyone desperate for monetary stability, having suffered impoverishment from the collapse of fiat currencies. It will give a reformer a free hand in not only monetary reform, but for the reform and replacement of the old institutions involved, particularly curtailing the activities of the central bank.

As an extension of monetary reform, banking in the commercial sector can then be addressed as a second step, consistent with the objective of replacing failed fiat currencies with a lasting sound money solution. And it also goes without saying that the crony capitalism which allows bankers to influence politicians by providing self-serving “advice” must be understood for what it is and ignored.

By implementing a sound money solution and with the evidence of economic progress that will rapidly become apparent in the wake of monetary reform, critics from the economic establishment can be temporarily silenced. There must be no pause in the momentum of reform in order to keep these critics constantly on the back foot. There will also be strong criticism from socialists, who are bound to view the monetary reform proposed herein as a primal threat to their cherished anti-market beliefs. Both camps deploy statistics to support their beliefs, and there is a necessity to wean the establishment off them. Beyond what is strictly necessary for accounting purposes, government statistical departments should be closed because they serve no genuine purpose anyway.

In a post-fiat world, the starting point for governments will be one of national bankruptcy, giving a reformer the opportunity to start with a clean slate. Lacking the flexibility of inflationary financing, governments will have to reduce and amend much of the socialising legislation that has dominated the creation of welfarism, particularly since the Second World War. It will take time but implemented skilfully and with appropriate political leadership it should be eminently possible. However, in our current inflationary environment, it is difficult to discern where this leadership will come from; but we must hope that, as has often been the case before, cometh the hour, cometh the man (or woman).

The person tasked with the reform necessary will have to find a balance between the remaining provisions of state welfare, which should be seen to be consistent with the state’s affordability and both sympathetic and civilised. There will always be the elderly, the sick and the impaired, unable to work and who will need a degree of support which their families (if they have them) are unable to adequately provide. Charitable work is far more effective at remedying these social problems and is to be encouraged.

Additionally, the source of financial capital, which has been increasingly provided by monetary inflation, must revert back to savers. As a matter of urgency, a savings culture must be reinstated. All taxes on savings should be rescinded and guaranteed to be so for evermore by also removing the requirements for financial service providers to report their customers’ affairs to the tax authorities.

The cultural shifts behind these changes are necessary to support a lasting legacy of sound money. It involves returning decisions regarding money, its quantity, time-preference and allocation entirely to members of the public as a collective body. Other governments following the same route will find that settling trade in a common form of money, that is to say gold or through credible gold substitutes, brings enormous benefits, and by allowing individuals and businesses to pursue a comparative advantage through trade, as producers they become more competitive and innovative themselves.

Instead of wealth being transferred from producers and consumers to their governments through monetary debasement, wealth in the private sector can rapidly accumulate with sound money. If progressively higher rates of income tax are replaced with a flat tax, the accumulation of wealth in the hands of the successful will quicken even more. And as personal wealth builds, the burden of the state on the economy can be further diminished while tax revenues become bouyant.

Currently, national resources are disproportionately tied up in financial speculation and the institutions that service it. This form of business will be substantially eliminated by a collapse of fiat currencies, and while there will always be a continuing function for using derivatives to hedge risk in commodity markets, there should be little or no demand for purely financial derivatives. The undoubted abilities of those employed in financial services can be redeployed from speculation to more useful activities, and the brightest students, currently attracted to financial, legal and accounting services could find that these are contracting with less opportunities compared with alternative prospects.

On paper, the move to a sound money economy is not difficult to envisage and the economic benefits to all are very clear. Furthermore, a government’s power and influence is rooted in the economic success of its citizens. This article provides an overview of the essential actions to be implemented. Let us hope that someone can rise to the challenge when the time comes.


end

 

iii) Other physical stories:

Hello Comex! The Resolutes Longs Are Refusing To Sell Out!

Great and Wonderful Friday Morning Folks,

     Gold continues to show what pressure can do when more paper is applied to the “buy” with Gold at $1,550.30, down $4 after hitting a low of $1,546.70 with the high at $1,555.00. Of note, none of this activity created a new low so far with the trading range remaining inside yesterday’s attempt to scare out the Resolutes. Silver is actually doing better than Gold with its trade at $17.925, down 1.1 cents after hitting a low of $17.860 with the high nearby at $17.975. Yesterday’s early morning low was beaten out by 1 penny before the trade went dormant with the yesterday’s low still intact. The US Dollar still has the “support of print” with its trade at 97.22, up 5.8 points with the high at 97.30 and the low to beat at 97.095. Of course, all of this happened already, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, the US Unemployment report, and before China pulls another “we won’t sign” this deal (until?), a very easy thing to see if one simply applies pattern recognition to the subject.

      In Venezuela, Gold’s price is now set at 15,483.62 Bolivar discounting the value by 24.95 Bolivar with Silver now trading at 179.026 Bolivar showing a loss of 0.999 in the overnight. In Argentina, the Peso now has Gold valued at 92,573.69 Peso’s proving a drop of 272.63 overnight with Silver at 1,070.61, subtracting another 5.53 in A-Peso value. In Turkey, Gold’s value is pegged at 9,109.29 Lira proving a loss of 29.47 with Silver still being held down as well with the trade at 105.319 T-Lira, showing a loss of 0.653.

      January Silver Deliveries proved the Resolute(s) needs are still being met with the demand count now at 41 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts to be filled here, or EFP’d over to London, and with zero Volume posted up on the board so far this morning. In yesterday’s early morning report, we had a Volume of 13 posted, but by the end of the day that Volume jumped to 38, yet the trading range remained so constant it boggles the mind. January 9th Delivery month purchases, and sells, only had one price posted at $17.76, and still they adjusted the closing price at $17.860. The Demand Count increased by 9 proving once again the reasons why we distrust Comex math and its regulatory body which only seems to rubber stamp central bank needs. So, we’re to believe that the entire day’s negative trade activity, kept the continued purchases at one price, all day long? Riiiight!

      Silver’s Overall Open Interest only lost 134 paper contracts during yesterday’s trades (right up to right now) proving the Resolutes are not buying the storyline the media induced as they attempted to gaslight the lie of a starting nuclear war, which failed in spectacular fashion leaving the Overall Open Interest at 234,242 Overnighters in order to keep Silver subdued. Silvers Open Interest is so elevated that we are less than 10,000 more pieces of paper away from making another paper contract high that was made when Trump killed it in 2016. Even Gold’s Open Interest continues to climb with last nights Comex closing tally at 786,392 Overnighters proving the addition of 1,269 more contracts were needed but failed as the Resolutes stay in the trade.

      Comex can add the paper but not the physicals. We support those that are Resoluting against the shorts, who buy the physicals from the supposed last resort, the Comex. Everyone who buys and holds physicals, has a stake in the trade that goes against this papered lie called the Comex Price. This is why we are as constant as the Resolutes, in fact we believe they already won it all. Of course this will be proven when the Open Interest starts to collapse, as the prices spike higher, when the Comex is be forced by law, to supply the physicals, they claim has this fixed value (that Comex created by oversupplying the paper contracts), while the mining sector proves they have slowed their extractions because of this artificial value created by paper and not the physical supply and demands.

      Have a great weekend, hold on tight to the facts, as well as the physicals. Keep the attitudes positive and the smile on your face, as we roll forward into the weekend. As always …

Stay Resolute!

  1. Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9234/ 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9216   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 2.59 POINTS OR 0.08%

HANG SANG CLOSED  UP 77.20 POINTS OR 0.27%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 110,70 POINTS OR 0.47%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.50/Euro FALLS TO 1.1095

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.00/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.63/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 59.63 and Brent: 65.54

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.18%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.34% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.45%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.52: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.36

3k Gold at $1549.10 silver at: 17.90   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 10/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.99

3m oil into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 65 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.63 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9750 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0818 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.18%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.85% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.32%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8758..

Dow 29,000 On Deck As Melt-Up Euphoria Pushes Global Stocks To Another Record High

Not even in his wildest dreams did BofA’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett expect the meltup to push the S&P500 to 3,333 before March 3. At the rate we are going, that bogey will be hit next week. World stocks set new record highs on Friday, with the world’s most valuable stock Apple leading the furious, euphoria meltup, while safe-haven assets such as gold and TSY dipped again as investors cheered – for a second day – an apparent de-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions and looked instead to prospects of improved global growth.

 

Markets reversed the sharp falls seen at the start of the week after the United States killed Iran’s most senior general, believing it would not lead to a full-scale military confrontation that would rock investor confidence. S&P futures are up more than 100 points since then, and the Dow is set to rise above 29,000 for the first time ever.

The MSCI world equity index also quickly resumed its rally and added another 0.1% on Friday to hit a new record high. It is almost 1.5% above the lows seen on Monday.  Reassurance from Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida that the U.S. economy remains in a “good place” is adding to bullish sentiment after a rocky start to the year.

 

“Unless we have external shocks such as a resurgence of U.S.-China trade tensions or a war in the Middle East, it is hard to see the U.S. economy falling apart,” said Hiroshi Watanabe, senior economist at Sony Financial Holdings. “There could be a great rotation to stocks from bonds. Emerging markets are likely to benefit from investors’ bullish mood too,” he added, echoing the familiar bullish refrain that has failed to materialize for the past decade.

Unlike the S&P which remains a one-way meltup, European shares showed some hesitation at the open, with pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 dropping as much as 0.2% as banking and retailer shares declined, before rebounding, the German DAX up 0.06% and Britain’s FTSE 0.1% ahead. That followed record levels in the three major share indexes on Wall Street on Thursday. Stock markets have got off to a strong start in 2019 despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to kill military commander Qassem Soleimani, the second most powerful figure in Iran, in a missile strike in Baghdad.

“In the space of a few days we appear to have swung full circle; with investors seemingly convinced that the problems in the Middle East appear to have settled down, at least for the time being,” said CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson.

“Investors now have the opportunity to focus on the signing of the new U.S.-China phase one trade deal next week, as well as the health of the U.S. economy today, and in particular the labor market which has continued to look resilient,” he added, referring to today’s market moving payrolls report.

In addition to trade and world war “optimism”, investors also cheered news that sales of Apple’s iPhones in China in December jumped more than 18% on the year.

 

Investors digested the report as a prelude to the upcoming visit by China’s Vice Premier Liu He, head of the country’s negotiation team in Sino-U.S. trade talks, to Washington next week to sign a trade deal with the United States.

There were other signs of investors’ bullish mood too: MSCI’s emerging market currency index hit a one and a half year high on Thursday in what is likely to be its sixth straight week of gains as it has also benefited from three U.S. rate cuts last year.

“If growth recovers and even if inflation overshoots a little bit, the Fed is probably going to let it run, and that probably goes for other central banks, but if growth weakens they could cut again,” Patrik Schowitz, global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management told Bloomberg Television. “You have this asymmetric set-up and that’s quite helpful for markets.”

Meanwhile, as noted above, safe haven assets extended their downward move: gold eased 0.1% to $1,550 per ounce from a seven-year high of $1,610.90 hit right after Iran’s missile attack on Wednesday. Against the Japanese yen, which investors often buy in times of uncertainty, the U.S. dollar strengthened to a two-week high of 109.61 yen. The dollar was little changed more broadly and against the euro it stood at $1.1108. The euro fell to $1.1091 on Thursday, its lowest in about two weeks.

In rates, government bond yields, which rose on Thursday as investors’ nerves about the situation in the Middle East eased, edged lower in early trading on Friday. The benchmark 10-year German bond yield fell 1 basis point to -0.236% but for the week remains up almost 5 basis points, in a strong signal of investors’ willingness to pull back from safe-haven government debt for riskier assets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was unchanged at 1.8546% and remains up 7 basis points on the week.

In commodities, oil prices, which spiked earlier this week on worries that tensions with Iran would disrupt global supplies, retreated further. Brent crude fell 0.3% $65.20 a barrel, and was heading for its first decline in six weeks, down almost 5%. WTI crude dropped 0.4% to $59.33 a barrel and was also on track for its first weekly drop in six, falling 6% from last Friday’s close.

Looking at today’s calendar, the final U.S. jobs report for 2019, due later Friday, is forecast to show employers added 160,000 jobs in December. We’ll also get November industrial production releases in France and Italy along with the December Bank of France industrial sentiment reading. Out later today in the US is final November wholesale inventories revisions. Away from the data the BoE’s Tenreyro is scheduled to speak this morning on the labour market.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,282.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.09% to 420.03
  • MXAP up 0.5% to 172.89
  • MXAPJ up 0.5% to 563.69
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 23,850.57
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,735.16
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 28,638.20
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.08% to 3,092.29
  • Sensex up 0.3% to 41,588.03
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 6,929.03
  • Kospi up 0.9% to 2,206.39
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to -0.194%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1095
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $65.07/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.5 bps to 1.208%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to 0.436%
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $65.07/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,549.72
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.06% to 97.51

Top Overnight News

  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit legislation cleared its final hurdle in the House of Commons, putting an end to the parliamentary gridlock that cost his predecessor Theresa May her job
  • The U.K. labor market received an election boost in December, with the number of people placed in permanent jobs rising for the first time in a year and business optimism surging. A survey for KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation found companies more willing to take on workers after Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party won a commanding parliamentary majority last month
  • Australians opened their wallets in November to take advantage of Black Friday sales, providing a much-needed boost for retailers that have struggled in an environment of record- high household debt and stagnant real wages
  • Oil headed for its first weekly loss since November as the prospect of a U.S.- Iranian war receded, easing fears of a potential supply disruption in the Middle East
  • Spending by Japanese households fell by a smaller amount in November, an indication that consumption is starting to recover from a sharp fall following October’s sale tax hike and a typhoon
  • Senate Republicans anticipate that President Trump’s impeachment trial will begin sometime next week, after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Thursday she will send the two articles of impeachment “soon,” according to Senator John Thune, the No. 2 GOP leader
  • The U.S. House of Representatives voted Thursday to limit President Donald Trump’s authority to strike Iran, a mostly symbolic move Democrats say defends Congress’s constitutional powers but Republicans say endangers national security
  • The prime ministers of Canada, the U.K. and Australia said that a Ukrainian jet that crashed Wednesday near Tehran was probably brought down by an Iranian missile and called for an international probe of the disaster
  • The final jobs report for 2019 is projected to show payrolls growth capped the year with a gain almost exactly in line with the average of the decade-long economic expansion, and continuing to moderate from the 2018 pace
  • A day after BOE Governor Mark Carney said policy makers are debating whether to add more stimulus, Silvana Tenreyro said she could be persuaded to join the two officials urging the Monetary Policy Committee to bring down the cost of borrowing
  • Iran called on Western governments to prove claims the Boeing Co. 737-800 passenger jet that crashed near Tehran on Wednesday was shot down, intensifying a standoff that could complicate an already difficult investigation fraught with geopolitical hurdles
  • Lawmakers expect House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will soon end her delay of President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial without any notable concessions from Senate Republicans, leaving her allies stumped about her strategy in the three-week standoff

Asia-Pac equities traded cautiously as the region failed to fully follow suit from the positive lead from Wall Street – which saw the tech-giant Apple soar in excess of 2% to a record high, after Chinese government data showed an 18% rise in iPhones sales in December. ASX 200 (+0.8%) was propped up by healthy gains in its financial sector with the “Big Four” Aussie banks all firmly in positive territory. Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) was buoyed by its auto sector alongside other large-cap stocks post-earnings, albeit Fast Retailing shares slumped to the foot of the index after the Co. cut its FY outlook following dismal quarterly results. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp (U/C) were mixed with the former swinging between gains and losses whilst the latter lost momentum and gave up its mild opening gains before trading with little conviction. US President Trump said he thinks the US-China Phase One deal will be signed on January 15th or shortly after. China Global Times tweeted that a Phase Two trade deal after November is too far away and added that China’s willingness to start Phase Two negotiations depends on the implementation of the Phase One deal; citing an expert close to the Chinese Government. Furthermore, China is not in a rush to begin Phase Two talks if US President Trump criticises the country during his election campaign, according to Global Times citing the expert close to the Chinese government.

Top Asian News

  • Indonesia Hints Currency Intervention Unlikely; Rupiah Jumps
  • India Court Finds Indefinite Restrictions in Kashmir Illegal
  • Trump Sent Kim Jong Un a Birthday Greeting, South Korea Says
  • Prosus Expands Fintech Business in India With $185 Million Deal

European bourses are essentially flat, in what has been a fairly choppy session for the bourses; currently, there is no substantial under/outperformer amongst the European indexes. As newsflow this morning has slowed considerably, particularly on the geopolitical front, ahead of the US jobs report later in the session. In terms of sectors, the complex is mixed; notably, the banking sector is underperforming slightly (-0.4%) weighed on in particular by UK and Italian banks due to lower yields as Gilts and BTPs currently outperform their peers. Elsewhere, this morning other notable movers include Ryanair (+7.8%) after an update which saw them increase FY20 profit guidance; note, this update has bolstered the European travel and leisure sector to the top of the pile, as Ryanair accounts for 6.15% of the index. Just below Ryanair resides RWE (+5.0%) after, since confirmed, pre-market reports that the Co. may receive as much as EUR 2bln in compensation from their mandated exit of the coal-power business. At the other end of the spectrum price action is quieter with the likes of Uniper (-2.0%) and Travis Perkins (-1.7%) afflicted by broker action.

Top European News

  • Ryanair Raises Profit Guidance After Christmas Travel Boom
  • Macron Government Seeks to Drive Pension Reform With Fresh Talks
  • Nordea Markets Chief Dealer FX Forwards Leaves After 25 Years
  • Northern Ireland May See Power Shared Again as Deal in Sight

In FX, there was more respite for the Aussie amidst the raging fires, as retail sales topped consensus overnight to overshadow a sub-50 AIG services PMI and maintain positive trade surplus momentum from Thursday. Hence, Aud/Usd is establishing a firmer base above 0.6850 and the 50 DMA (0.6860), while Aud/Nzd has rebounded a bit closer towards 1.0400, as the Kiwi struggles to keep hold of the 0.6600 handle vs its US peer.

  • USD – Aussie outperformance aside, the Greenback is still outpacing the rest of the G10, with the DXY back over 96.500 and yesterday’s 97.562 high at 97.586 heading in to NFP. Note, headline payrolls are forecast to rise 164k compared to the bumper 266k tally last time, but could well surprise to the upside given mostly upbeat jobs proxies and a particularly strong ADP survey, so the Dollar and index may be able to extend their advances if the BLS report is bullish.
  • GBP – The Pound is holding up relatively well circa 1.3055 and 0.8490 in Cable and Eur/Gbp cross terms in the face of another dovish blast from the BoE, as Tenreyro shows tendencies towards backing a rate cut if the UK economy falters in line with Governor Carney on Thursday, and given downside risks amidst no further tightening in the labour market.
  • JPY/EUR/CAD/CHF – All on the defensive against the Buck pre-US jobs data, with the Yen slipping closer to December lows through 109.50 and bereft of any real option expiry interest to offer support until 110.20, while the Euro is back below 1.1100 to test the resolve of bids around 1.1090 that saved the single currency from deeper declines yesterday. Like Usd/Jpy, no decent downside expiries into the NY cut, but 1.1 bn in Eur/Gbp at the 0.8500 strike could buffer the Euro. Elsewhere, the Loonie has recovered some poise after sliding under 1.3100 following latest BoC commentary via Governor Poloz who contends that strike action and adverse weather are partly to blame for the recent run of poor data, but the impending labour update will be key in wake of the huge headline drop in November. Meanwhile, the Franc has retreated towards 0.9760, but faring better vs the Euro close to 1.0800.

In commodities, a markedly quieter session in terms of geopolitical developments to end the week, with much of the focus now residing on whether the Boeing 737-800 crashed due to a Iranian missile; a possibility which Iran has firmly pushed back on but a number of nations, including US and Canada, regard this as a potential explanation as the investigation continues. Oil prices this morning are somewhat subdued, as the geo-political premium in the crude complex continues to unwind; overall, the moves are relatively small in magnitude as market focus switches to the US jobs report (full preview available on the Newsquawk research suite). Looking back on the week, WTI has printed a range of around USD 7.0/bbl thus far, with a similar range seen in Brent. PVM posit that yesterday’s price action, where the lack of attempt in oil markets to move higher implies that a ‘new status quo’ has taken over; which does tilts risks for price action to the downside. Turning to metals, where spot gold is down by around USD 4/oz and remains below the USD 1500/oz mark which was briefly reclaimed last night. Middle-East tensions aside, UBS highlight that physical demand for the precious metal is ‘tepid’, particularly from the world’s second largest importer India; although, overall they note the metals outlook is positive with the potential for a test of recent highs shortly.

 

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 160,000, prior 266,000
    • Change in Private Payrolls, est. 152,500, prior 254,000
    • Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 5,000, prior 54,000
  • 8:30am: Unemployment Rate, est. 3.5%, prior 3.5%
    • Labor Force Participation Rate, prior 63.2%
    • Underemployment Rate, prior 6.9%
  • 8:30am: Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 3.1%, prior 3.1%
    • Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30am: Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.4, prior 34.4
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.0%, prior 0.0%; Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.7%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

With risk appetite showing little sign of abating following another resurgent 24 hours in markets, the next potential hurdle to jump is the first payrolls Friday of the new decade. Indeed this afternoon we’ve got the December employment report scheduled for release where, on the back of that bumper 266k payrolls print in November, the consensus expects a 160k reading for last month. Our US economists make the point that the November data was boosted by returning GM workers so they also expect some payback and forecast 155k. In light of the strong ADP report this week they also nudged their private payrolls forecast slightly higher, to 145k. As for the other details, our colleagues expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.5%, hours worked to also hold steady at 34.4 and average hourly earnings to rise +0.3% mom – all of which is in line with the wider consensus. The report is due out at 1.30pm GMT/8.30am EST.

In the meantime and as mentioned at the top, with US-Iran re-escalation concerns now seemingly in the rear view mirror for now, the lack of any other headwinds or obstacles helped the S&P 500 (+0.67%), NASDAQ (+0.81%) and DOW (+0.74%) to reach new record highs by the close of play last night. The more cyclical sectors led the charge once more with tech, financials and energy the biggest gainers sector wise for the S&P. In Europe the STOXX 600 also closed +0.31% while oil remained steady, with Brent crude hovering around $65/bbl, still below its pre-Soleimani levels of last week. Gold (-0.26%) also fell for a second consecutive session. Amazingly November 25th was the last time that happened. Over in sovereign bond markets, 10yr Treasury yields closed down -1.9bps, though this was in contrast to Europe, where yields on 10yr bunds (+2.9bps), OATs(+1.6bps) and gilts (+0.3bps) all moved higher.

This morning in Asia we’ve seen further gains for the likes of the Nikkei (+0.38%), Hang Seng (+0.06%) and Kospi (+0.54%). Bourses in China have bucked the trend, however, with both the Shanghai Comp (-0.26%) and CSI 300 (-0.18%) running out of steam somewhat. Meanwhile futures in the US are up around +0.20% and it’s worth noting also that Boeing shares are up +0.30% overnight after closing +1.47% yesterday following comments from Canadian PM Trudeau that intelligence shows the Ukrainian jet that crashed on Wednesday in Iran “was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile”.

Back to yesterday now, and things have been a bit quieter on the trade front lately since the announcement of a Phase One US-China trade deal, which is due to be signed next week, but we did find out from President Trump yesterday that the Phase Two negotiations would begin “right away”. However, he added, “I think, I might want to wait to finish it until after the election because by doing that I think we can actually make a little bit better deal, maybe a lot better deal,” so clearly it could also be some time before we see a full agreement.

Staying with the US, Vice-Chair Clarida’s comments yesterday didn’t end up moving the dial particularly. He said that policy is in a “good place” and will respond to “material changes”. He also said that “global disinflationary forces are powerful” and that policy has to take that into account. As for the rest of the Fedspeak, we also had New York Fed President Williams, who said that “If inflation continues to underrun target levels similar to the past six years, the downward trend in inflation expectations will likely continue”, while Chicago Fed President Evans, though not a voter in 2020, said that “I would like to see inflation go to 2% sustainably and in fact go above 2%”.

In other news, yesterday’s data was a small talking point in the US with continuing claims jumping 75k to 1,803k. That is in fact the highest since April 2018 with the 4.3% jump the highest since November 2012. It’s worth noting, however, that initial claims were a lot steadier at 214k (versus 223k in the week prior) so there wasn’t too much concern with year-end cited as a potential factor. Over in Europe, the Euro Area unemployment rate held steady at 7.5% as expected in November, staying at its joint-lowest since June 2008. Meanwhile in Germany November’s industrial production was slightly stronger than expected at +1.1% mom (vs. +0.8% expected), bringing the yoy decline down to -2.6%, which is actually the smallest yoy contraction since March.

Here in the UK there was some focus on comments from BoE Governor Carney, with sterling weakening back towards $1.30 (though it recovered later in the session slightly) after he said that “there is a debate at the MPC over the relative merits of near-term stimulus to reinforce the expected recovery in UK growth and inflation”. The full speech also saw Mr. Carney say that “evidence is increasing that the entrenched uncertainties in recent years may have weighed more heavily on supply growth than previously anticipated”. A sign perhaps that there is some active debate on the MPC as to whether to cut rates later this month. Also in the UK, the House of Commons gave its final approval to the Withdrawal Agreement Bill yesterday, which is the legislation that implements the Brexit deal into UK law. The bill passed by a decisive 330-231 margin among MPs, showing that with a government majority of 80 seats in the Commons, the days of tight parliamentary votes are behind us for the time being. The bill now moves on to the House of Lords, with the UK due to leave the EU on the 31st January.

To the day ahead now, where the focus is undoubtedly this afternoon with the December employment report in the US. Prior to that, this morning we’ll get November industrial production releases in France and Italy along with the December Bank of France industrial sentiment reading. Out later today in the US is final November wholesale inventories revisions. Away from the data the BoE’s Tenreyro is scheduled to speak this morning on the labour market.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.59 POINTS OR 0.08%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 77,20 POINTS OR 0.27%   /The Nikkei closed UP 110.70 POINTS OR 0.47%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .72%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9234 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9234 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9216 ///MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA/PHASE ONE

China not moving too fast as we promised on those huge supposedly big agricultural purchases from the USA

(zerohedge)

Trump Says Trade Deal Might Be Signed Jan. 15 Or “Shortly Thereafter”

Uncertainty is increasing after President Trump said the Phase 1 trade deal might be signed on Jan. 15 but also said it could be signed after, report Reuters.

President Trump stated last month that a trade deal with China would be signed on Jan. 15, but on Thursday evening, he said the agreement might be signed “shortly thereafter.”

In an interview with ABC TV affiliate in Toledo, Ohio, the president said, “We’re going to be signing on Jan. 15 – I think it will be Jan. 15, but shortly thereafter, but I think Jan. 15 – a big deal with China.”

Some confusion is certainly seen with the president’s latest statement, considering China’s Vice Premier Liu He, the country’s top trade negotiator, will visit Washington on Jan. 13-15 to sign the Phase 1 traded deal.

The White House wasn’t open for questions as it appears the signing of the trade deal, announced by the president on Dec. 31 to be precisely on Jan. 15 is now in question. President Trump was hesitant to mention exact dates and was vague, considering several weeks ago, he was confident that a deal would be signed on Jan. 15.

 

The uncertainty around the timing could suggest trade negotiations could’ve hit a snag. As we’ve mentioned over the last week, Beijing won’t increase its annual import quotas for wheat, corn, and rice.

We’ve also detailed how China might not be able to live up to President Trump’s hard commitments on agriculture purchases.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

The UK retail industry saw its worst year ever in 2019

(zerohedge)

 

UK Retail Industry Sees Worst Year Ever In 2019

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) recorded the worst ever year on record in 2019, with sales contracting for the first time in 24 years as the UK economy faces the weakest growth outside a recession since the second world war, reported The Guardian.

The BRC said retail sales in 2019 slipped by 0.1%.

Taking November and December into account, retail sales fell 0.9% Y/Y, partly offset by a 2.6% rise in online sales for the same period.

“2019 was the worst year on record and the first year to show an overall decline in retail sales,” said BRC CEO Helen Dickinson.

Dickinson said the slump in retail is due to some of the weakest growth in the overall economy since the second world war, as political turmoil and Brexit uncertainty has led to a slowdown.

She said: “Twice the UK faced the prospect of a no-deal Brexit, as well as political instability that concluded in a December general election, further weakening demand for the festive period.”

She also said retailers are facing consumer shifts to online and a pullback in spending as the economy is expected to stagnate in 2020.

She noted that the trend towards a renting society and a weak housing market has led to consumers owning less “stuff.”

end

Europe

This is frightening: We now have huge Nigerian mafia members permeating throughout Europe.

be careful on your travels

(Judith Berman/Gatestone)

 

Europe’s Nigerian Mafia

Authored by Judith Bergman via The Gatestone Institute,

One of the fastest growing criminal networks in Europe is now the Nigerian mafia, which is spreading its criminal activities across the continent. It consists of rival groups such as Black Axe, Vikings and Maphite. Most recently, authorities in Italy, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Malta conducted an international operation directed at two of the major Nigerian mafia groups. Police accused the gangs of human-trafficking, drug trafficking, robbery, extortion, sexual violence and prostitution.

According to a June 2019 report by the Washington Post on the Nigerian mafia in Italy:

They hold territory from the north in Turin to the south in Palermo. They smuggle drugs and traffic women, deploying them as prostitutes on Italy’s streets. They find new members among the caste of wayward migrants, illicitly recruiting at Italian government-run asylum centers.”

The Nigerian mafia, according to the report, is “trafficking women by the tens of thousands”. Italian intelligence has named the group “the most structured and dynamic” of any foreign crime entity operating in Italy, according to the Washington Post.

“Some experts say that as many as 20,000 Nigerian women, some of them minors, arrived in Sicily between 2016 and 2018, trafficked in cooperation with Nigerians in Italy and back home.”

It is no wonder that the Nigerian group has become so prominent in Italy: the country has been one of Europe’s front doors for migrants entering Europe.

What distinguishes the Nigerian crime networks is their severe brutality — Italian police have described them as using “urban guerilla warfare” to hold on to territory in Italy — and their use of voodoo rituals. According to a July 2017 report by the UN’s International Organization for Migration (IOM), sex trafficked victims give an oath “sealed with a voodoo ritual or a rite of initiation (the victim is committed to honouring her agreement)” to their traffickers and also harbor “a fear of retaliation by traffickers on the victim’s family members back in their country of origin”.

According to the 2017 IOM report:

“Over the past three years, IOM Italy has seen an almost 600 per cent increase in the number of potential sex trafficking victims arriving in Italy by sea. This upward trend has continued during the first six months of 2017, with most victims arriving from Nigeria”.

In its report, IOM estimated that 80 per cent of girls, often minors, arriving from Nigeria — whose numbers soared dramatically from 1,454 in 2014 to 11,009 in 2016 — were “potential victims of trafficking for sexual exploitation”.

The Nigerian mafia has not limited its operations to just Italy. It has spread as far north in Europe as Germany and Sweden. In London, a trio of Black Axe members was found guilty of laundering almost £1 million, which had been stolen through phone and email fraud. The Nigerian mafia, specifically the group Black Axe, has also spread to Canada, where a 2015 report by the Globe and Mail described it as a “death cult” originating in Nigeria, where it has been linked to “decades of murders and rapes, and its members are said to swear a blood oath”. In the US, the FBI recently linked a series of financial frauds to Black Axe. According to the news report, In the United States and around the world, the group is responsible for the loss of millions of dollars through a variety of elaborate cons”.

In Sweden, police has described Black Axe as “one of the world’s most effective crime syndicates”. Swedish media recently ran a story that shows how Black Axe operates: A 16-year-old Nigerian girl was promised a job in Sweden as a hair stylist. When she arrived, Black Axe forced her to work as a prostitute, after she had gone through a voodoo ritual. “We have your blood now”, Black Axe members told her, “If you run we will always find you”.

In 2018, three Nigerians were prosecuted in Malmö for luring Nigerian women to Sweden with the promise of jobs and then forcing them into prostitution after making them go through a voodoo ritual that involved the eating of a raw chicken heart. According to the Swedish prosecutor, the voodoo ritual is a way to control and exploit the trafficked victims, who believe in voodoo.

Similar rituals went on in the UK in 2018, when a trafficker sought to traffic Nigerian women from Nigeria to Germany and in Spain, also in 2018, when a trafficking ring of 12 Nigerians was arrested, also for forcing women into prostitution and putting them through similar voodoo rites. In Germany, according to a recent report by Deutsche Welle, a growing number of Nigerian women are ending up as prostitutes in one of Germany’s largest red-light districts in Duisburg, and according to Barbara Wellner of Solidarity with Women in Distress, “Nigerian human traffickers are responsible for smuggling in most of them”.

 

The number of Nigerian women trafficked into prostitution in Germany, while still relatively small, has been growing in recent years, according to a March 2019 report by Info-Migrants. In 2013, just 2.8% of known victims were from Nigeria. That went up to 5% in 2016 and up to 8% in 2017. According to the report, which quotes Andrea Tivig from the women’s rights organization, Terre des Femmes, the traffickers use the asylum system:

“I’ve heard reports in Italy… that traffickers tell victims of human trafficking to apply for asylum and then get a status to be able to stay here in Germany, but they continue to be exploited in prostitution.”

The Nigerian mafia groups form just one part, albeit very troubling, of the total picture of imported migrant gang crime in Europe. As previously reported by Gatestone Institute, migrant gang crime already poses a threat to European citizens. In November 2018, Naser Khader, member of the Danish Parliament for the Conservative Party and co-founder of the Muslim Reform Movement, wrote in the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten:

“In addition to a common fondness for crime, the culture of immigrant gangs is a cocktail of religion, clan affiliation, honor, shame and brotherhood… The harder and the more brutal [you are], the stronger you are, and then you create awareness of yourself and attract more [people]”.

In Sweden, migrant gang crime has become an almost insurmountable problem: some commentators there have described the situation as “war”. Denmark is increasingly fighting migrant gang crime. In Germany, where the migrant gangs are known as criminal family clans, authorities expect to be fighting the problem for decades to come.

In policy debates, the detrimental effects of migration on crime, particularly gang crime, do not receive nearly the attention — if any — they deserve. They should.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/IRAQ/IRAN/SYRIA

Israel bombs a weapons depot belonging to Iranian militia on the Syrian/Iraq border

(zerohedge)

Israel Bombs Weapons Depot Run By Iranian Militia

Tensions continued to climb in the Middle East Thursday evening as reports of another air strike have been confirmed, but this time, it was the Israelis doing the shelling.

According to reports by domestic and western media, the Israeli air force carried out an attack against an Iran-backed militia reportedly headquartered on the border between Syria and Iraq.

Tribal sources in Iraq apparently told reporters that the Israeli shelling targeted trucks and individuals associated with Iranian-backed militias near the Iraqi-Syria border. Artillery and shelling was also reported, though it’s unclear who fired those shots. The weapons are believed to have been destined for Hezbollah.

 

Casualties have been reported, though the exact number is so far unclear.

Sources claimed that the airstrikes were targeting weapons shipments, according to the Washington Post. The Kataib Imam Ali, an Iran-backed militia, was apparently moving weapons, possibly in preparation for a strike against US interests.

Al Mayadeen reported that the strikes targeted ballistic missile warehouses run by the group. The warehouse was situated outside of the city of Al Bukamal

 

Liz Sly

@LizSly

Reports tonight of airstrikes in eastern Syria against a convoy of the Kataib Imam Ali, an Iranian backed Iraqi militia. Most likely by Israel, which regularly hits the area. A reminder that this isn’t just about the US & Iran

The attack comes just hours after Iranian officials, including President Rouhani and a top IRGC commander, warned that Iran’s retaliation for the killing of IRGC General Qasem Suleimani wasn’t yet over, and Tehran publicly washed its hands of its proxies, claiming it couldn’t be held responsible for actions committed in its name.

END

ISRAEL

This will be a game changer and cost a few dollars of electricity to operate.  It can fire a beam continually giving protection to the area.  Leave it to the Israelis to come out with this system..they have been working on this for over 10 years.

(zerohedge)

Israel Unveils Breakthrough Aerial ‘Laser Sword’ Missile Intercept System

“It’s a game-changer” — declared Gen. Yaniv Rotem, head of Israel’s Defense Ministry’s (IDF) Directorate of Research and Development, in a Jerusalem Post interview profiling the county’s newest breakthrough laser targeting technology.

The IDF unveiled what’s being described as an aerial ‘laser sword’ which can take out multiple types of airborne threats such as drones, rockets and anti-tank missiles. This after a decade-long program focusing on defensive measures using lasers, and amid a broader global trend which has seen the United States, Russia and China tout its own laser systems, most currently used by naval vessels.

 

Artistic rendering via “Israel Defense” news site.

Defense Minister Naftali Bennett on Wednesday boasted that the breakthrough “makes the security apparatus more lethal, more powerful and more advanced,” as the IDF plans to integrate its laser technology into current systems. “This technology enables the development of highly effective operational systems that will serve as an additional layer of defense to secure the State of Israel by air, land and sea,” a ministry statement said.

 

But like with other recent claims of powerful laser weapons, such as out of Chinese defense companies, the burden of ‘proof’ over whether the lasers are indeed powerful and effective enough to actually make intercepts is another thing and remains to be seen in action.

Citing a top official, The Jerusalem Post notes the program has grown successful over many painstaking years: “The ministry has been working for more than 10 years on powerful laser technology to enable the development of platforms to intercept a variety of threats, he said.”

And further, said the official: “It has carried out a number of successful interceptions of targets, including mortar shells, drones and antitank missiles, at a variety of ranges over the years.”

Specifically the latest breakthrough touted by the ministry relates to the precision and concentration of the laser beam’s power.

“According to Oster, the ministry was able to take several laser beams and, with an advanced algorithm, connect them to get one strong beam that is able to intercept and take down a variety of threats,” according to the report, citing the Defense Ministry’s Directorate of Research and Development head of the Optronics Department, Dubi Oster.

“During a war, missile interceptors will at one point run out, but with this system, as long as you have electricity, you have a never-ending supply,” another official working on the program said“This is a weapon that you can’t see or hear,” the official said, adding that each offensive weapons intercept could conceivably only cost a few dollars in electricity.

Defense Minister Naftali Bennett referenced the high-tech system as a defense “laser sword. He stated to the Jerusalem Post that “we will add a laser sword when dealing with threats from the North or the South,” adding that “The enemies of Israel better not test our resolve or our abilities.”

 

Illustrative file image

Reports on the program earlier last year referenced one of the particular applications as the ‘Iron Beam’ — a mobile High-Energy Laser Weapon System (HELWS).

Despite the high claims, the IDF has yet to offer video proof of successful field tests, which could still be years away. Laser technology employed for defensive and offensive purposes has been notoriously ‘weak’ at extended distances, given the beam’s power disperses and decreases rapidly beyond very close proximity.

end

IRAN/USA

The uSA is now sanctioning the rest of the Iranian economy. This will paralyze them!

(zerohedge)

“We Want Iran To Behave Like A Normal Nation”: US Imposes Sanctions On Virtually Entire Iranian Economy

As was previewed by Trump two days earlier, moments ago Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo confirmed that the Trump administration is imposing new sanctions on Iran, specifically targeting the country’s metals exports and eight senior leaders. The Treasury said the actions Friday target the 13 largest steel and iron manufacturers in Iran and top copper and aluminum producers.

With the latest sanctions targeting steel, aluminum, copper and iron as well as sectors of the economy such as construction, manufacturing, textiles and miningit now appears that virtually the entire Iranian economy is off-limits to any nation that has diplomatic ties with the US. As a reminder, Iran’s critical oil exports and shipping industries were already sanctioned in 2019, sending the economy in turmoil as most of the country’s oil exports were taken offline with only a handful of countries such as China and India still importing Iranian crude.

The economic pressure from US sanctions has already had a destabilizing effect on Iran’s economy, sending the currency tumbling and leading to sporadic anti-government protests across the nation.

In this vein, the new measures are aimed at cracking down on Iran’s few remaining sources of export revenue and squeezing the nation’s economy to force its leaders back into negotiations for a new nuclear agreement.

“We want Iran to simply behave like a normal nation,” Pompeo said during a media briefing at the White House.

The move to expand penalties on the Islamic Republic followed one day after President Trump said Iran would be sanctioned “immediately” for the airstrikes against two U.S. military installations in Iraq, which resulted in no casualties.

As Bloomberg notes, “the administration first prepared the sanctions in December, before tensions escalated between the U.S. and Iran, leading to the Jan. 2 U.S. airstrike in Baghdad that killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani.”

“By cutting off the economics to the regime, we are having an impact,” Mnuchin said.

Separately, Mnuchin also said that the U.S. will issue waivers on sanctions against Iran to allow investigators from the US and other countries to take part in the probe of a Ukrainian jetliner crash in Tehran earlier this week which several western nations have said was likely downed by an Iranian missile shortly after Tehran attacked US air bases in Iraq.

Reiterating that the target of US economic pressure remains Iran’s oil industry, the State and Treasury Departments issued guidance that warns ship insurers, banks, charter companies, port owners, crews and captains that they all face sanctions exposure if they can’t account for the legitimacy of the cargoes they carry. The administration is seeking to close a significant loophole that allows Iran and other nations to avoid sanctions: ship-to-ship transfers of crude oil, refined petroleum and other goods.

Ironically, the biggest client of Iranian oil exports remains China in stark violation of US sanctions, yet despite this clear snub of Washington in the international arena, US and China are expected to sign the Phase One trade deal as early as next Monday.

As for the immediate impact of the sanctions, it is debatable if they will achieve the desired concession by Rouhani to sit down on the negotiating table with Trump; instead a far more likely outcome is that after Iran’s leaders succeeded in placating the population’s thirst for retaliation and vindication after Soleimani’s assassination, which was achieved with Iran’s casualty-free attack on UENDS airbases in Iraq, the angry Iranian population will demand another round of retaliatory escalation, made more likely by the fact that now Tehran’s cash-strapped government has even fewer sources of income, which may explain why risk assets are suddenly sinking.

TURKEY/LIBYA/RUSSIA

Hafter is a few kilometers from Tripoli centre.  He also this week took Sirte, a major city in Liyba. Hafter rejects the Russia/Turkey ceasefire pla

(zerohedge)

Libya’s Haftar Rejects Russia-Turkey Ceasefire Plan After Huge Advances

When Russia’s President Putin attended the launch ceremony for the TurkStream natural gas pipeline this week, at the top of the list of difficult geopolitical crises addressed with Turkey’s Erdogan was the rapidly unfolding Libya war.

Some analysts say that the new Libya conflict and war for control of the oil and gas rich North African country between Benghazi-based Gen. Khalifa Haftar and the UN-recognized GNA in Tripoli is set to dominate world headlines in 2020 alongside the US-Iran showdown. Pundits were surprised when on Wednesday the Turkish and Russian presidents agreed to jointly issue an urgent call for ceasefire in Libya proposed to start from Saturday (Jan.12) midnight.

That surprise cooperative agreement (given Russia and Turkey back separate sides of the war) to come to the negotiating table was swiftly rejected Thursday by Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA). This as the death toll continues to climb as Haftar is vowing the ongoing siege of Tripoli is the “final offensive” to wrest control of the city. Haftar went so far as the call his offensive a war against “terrorists” that cannot cease until definitive victory.

 

Prior Russian defense minister meeting with Gen. Khalifa Haftar, via Mil.ru 

In a video statement, Haftar’s military spokesman said, “We welcome [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s call for a ceasefire. However, our fight against terrorist organizations that seized Tripoli and received support of some countries will continue until the end,” according to Al Jazeera.

At least 1,000 people have been killed since the LNA’s military offensive began months ago — though fighting has been sporadic for years  with at least 5,000 others wounded, according to United Nations estimates.

Meanwhile, Turkish troops are said to have touched down in the Libyan capital earlier this week after Turkey’s parliament voted through a plan for military assistance to the besieged GNA. This after reports that Ankara has actually sent Turkish-backed Syrian militants with the FSA as mercenaries to assist in the campaign.

Currently pro-Haftar forces are claiming to be a mere few kilometers away from the center of Tripoli. “The Libyan Army is now in Tripoli, and they are positioned only a few kilometers from the city center,” an LNA military spokesman said in an Arabic statement Thursday.

Also crucial is that days ago the LNA said it captured Sirte, held by forces loyal to the GNA since 2016, which lies some 280 miles east of the capital Tripoli, and was an important highly modernized city previously favored for development under Gaddafi before his 2011 summary execution by NATO-backed ‘rebels’.

The seizure of Sirte, now confirmed under Gen. Haftar’s control, is considered a major blow to the Tripoli unity government.

But a military stalemate is likely to continue, considering Turkey has vowed to prevent a Haftar takeover of the country over the objections of his backers like Egypt and the UAE. For this reason the LNA has been given orders to shoot at any Turkish plane or ship which enters Libyan space. Already Turkish drones have reportedly been downed on a couple of occasions over the past month.

end
IRAN
A superb commentary outlining what it going on behind the scene in Iran
(Gateway Pundit)

BREAKING REPORT — IRAN ROUNDUP for January 4th thru 9th – General Soleimani was betrayed by fellow IRGC members!

By Editors of The Free Iran Herald 

Updates on events unfolding in Iran

Evidence is Mounting that Qassem Soleimani was Turned Over to the US by his Rivals in Tehran

According to confidential sources inside Iran, on the night of January 6th, 56 high-ranking IRGC officers, including the late Qods Force commander General Soleimani’s right-hand man in Iraq, were arrested. A further 34 IRGC officers were detained on the 8th.

All 90 of these men were said to be personally loyal to Soleimani.

This news is increasing the speculation that Soleimani, who was known to act on his own initiatives, and who was being seen as a possible future dictator-in-waiting for Tehran, was betrayed to American intelligence by his own colleagues within the regime, who feared that he would deprive them of their power and privileges.

Additionally, information has surfaced that Soleimani, who had been personally leading the repression against the popular uprising in Iraq since October, had been planning a coup d’état in Baghdad that would have resulted in the assassination of the Iraqi president, and the seizing of the American embassy there.

Thus, seen in this light of Soleimani’s out-of-control brazenness, and his growing unpopularity within his own Khomeinist clique, US President Donald’s Trump decision to kill him emerges as the de-escalatory move that he has presented it as, and one that will stimulate more infighting, and the consequent weakening of, the regime.

Though it presents a public face of being monolithic, the IRGC is riddled with factionalism and waves of purges. Last July, 125 IRGC officers were arrested and accused of plotting to overthrow the regime. In that regard, some observers are already judging the conference of regime-sponsored proxy militias that Tehran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei called together on Thursday, January 9th, (which featured representatives from Palestine’s Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, Iraq’s Hashd al Shaabi, Afghanistan’s Fatemiyoun and Pakistan’s Zeinabiyoun) in order to unite them behind the new Qods Force commander, Esmail Ghaani to have already failed, because these forces had been personally built up by, and around, Soleimani, and their loyalties may not be so easily transferable.

IRGC Shoots Down Ukrainian Airliner: Why?

Ukrainian International Airlines Flight PS752 crashed soon after taking off from Tehran on the morning of Wednesday the 7th. The crash, which occurred soon after the IRGC had filed missiles at two American military bases in Iraq, killed all 176 people onboard. Most of the passengers, 82 of them, were Iranians, while 63 were Canadian, as the flight was supposed to be connecting in Kiev with a Toronto-bound one. Video footage shows the plane instantaneously bursting into flames.

The regime claimed that the crash was accidental, but it refused to hand the plane’s black box over to its manufacturer, Boeing, to determine what had happened. Witnesses on the ground reported finding debris from an IRGC 9M331 missile at the crash site, indicating that the plane was shot down by one of the IRGC’s Russian-manufactured Tor-M1 air defense batteries.

American government sources later confirmed that US espionage satellites had captured images of the missiles impacting the airliner. Speculation has now commenced as to why the IRGC attacked this airplane. Some are simply assuming that the IRGC personnel might have thought the plane was a US fighter jet, and fired on it in error. Others are wondering whether this was a disguised form of retaliation for the killing of Soleimani. Still others are questioning whether this incident might be related to Ukraine-Tehran economic relations.

Ukraine is a key trading partner of the Tehran regime, and its aviation industry, in particular, has helped Tehran avoid sanctions and acquire banned weapons technology, by sneaking them onboard Kiev-Tehran commercial flights. Now that Kiev’s new Zelensky administration, under pressure from the US to seriously crackdown on corruption and organized crime, seems willing to tackle mafia groups that the Khomeinist regime has been doing business with, one can wonder whether or not the IRGC was sending a threatening message to Ukraine by shooting down their airplane.

Repression and Unrest Continuing in Iran, While Western Liberal Media Only Amplify Khomeinist Propaganda

Despite the martial law atmosphere prevailing in Iran, there are people still attempting to protest, and activists are being arrested. On Sunday, December 29th, eight were detained in Tehran on charges of attempting to organize a demonstration, while three more were arrested on the same charge in Esfahan. The day before, 26 people were arrested in several Iranian cities for having participated in the November protests.

The repression took a new turn after Soleimani’s death. The public prosecutor of the city of Shahreza, outside of Esfahan, declared that saying derogatory things about Soleimani amounted to “blasphemy,” and announced that four Esfahanis had been arrested for making anti-Soleimani posts on social media. On January 4th, the editor of the regime’s own Khabar News website was summoned to court for writing that Soleimani was killed, instead of “martyred,” while a journalist in the western city of Paveh, named Mozafar Validbeygi, was also arrested for the same choice of words.

Some Iranians did brave the IRGC to display their joy over Soleimani’s death. On January 4th, in Ahvaz, locals burned a banner bearing his image, while a hall that was supposed to devoted to a regime-mandated mourning ceremony had to be closed after crowds started booing the memory of the Qods Force commander and cheering his death.

 

In an attempt to show that Soleimani was revered in Iran, the regime, as per its usual practice, staged a demonstration at Soleimani’s funeral in Ahvaz by busing in many IRGC and Basij militia personnel, dressed in plainclothes, and their families, as they could, while also offering free food and transportation to the starving poor in various Iranian municipalities. Independent analysists studying footage of the IRGC’s rent-a-crowd showed that it could not have numbered more than 90,000, but regime media falsely claimed that “millions” had gathered.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo: Supporting the Iranian People, and Rejecting Opportunistic Sects

While the Tehran regime, and western liberal media, ran wild with accusations that President Trump wanted to bomb Iranian cultural heritage sites, based on a mistaken interpretation of one Tweet, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo retorted with the facts that it is the Khomeinist regime itself who has been the biggest destroyer of Iran’s cultural heritage.

On Monday, Pompeo further displayed his keen awareness of Iranian issues by sending out a letter to all American diplomats asking them not to meet with six so-called Iranian opposition groups; most notably, the Islamic-Marxist sect, the Mojahedin’e Khalq (MEK), as well as four separatist groups seeking to dismember Iran. Activists inside Iran saw this a wise move, showing that the US authorities understand the difference between the real Iran opposition, and power-seeking opportunists.

end

IRAN/USA CANADA/UK FRANCE

THIS SHOULD BE FASCINATING: Tehran invites the uSA Ukraine France and Canada to examine the crash dat after all the plane parts have been moved to a new location

(zeorhedge)

Iran’s Day Of Reckoning: Tehran Invites US, Ukraine, France & Canada To Examine Crash Data

After vehemently denying that a misfiring of its missile defense system essentially shot UIA Flight 752 out of the sky, Tehran has decided that it will allow international investigators access to data from the plane’s ‘black box’ which could help shed some light on what caused the crash, WSJ reports.

Iran’s top transportation ministers initially said that they wouldn’t share the data, citing the escalating tensions with the US and the West as justification. However, an outpouring of criticism from alleged US intelligence sources, along with trained aerospace analysts, have suggested that “a shootdown scenario” most likely caused the deadly crash, has apparently changed their mind. Even President Trump has said that he doubts the Iranians’ explanation.

Courtesy of WSJ

So Tehran has invited representatives from Boeing, the US, Ukraine (where the plane’s operator, Ukraine International Airlines, is based), France and Canada to join in the probe.

Officials from Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization said Friday during a televised news conference that they would try and analyze the black box data, including the flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder, in Iran, though experts in Russia, Ukraine, France and Canada are standing by to lend assistance.

Iran will start the process of trying to examine the black boxes at Mehrabad International Airport in Tehran Friday to see if the data is recoverable

“If we can do it ourselves, we will,” Ali Abedzadeh, head of Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization, said during a press conference in Tehran. “If not, we will definitely ask for assistance from other countries.”

But in an early sign that Tehran might be plotting some kind of cover-up, CBS News reported that when its crew visited the crash site west of Tehran on Friday, virtually all pieces of the plane had been removed…

Elizabeth Palmer

@elizapalmer

CBS crew just visited the airlines crash site west of Tehran. Nine am local time. Virtually all pieces of the plane were removed yesterday – say locals. Scavengers now picking site clean. No security. Not cordoned off. No sign of any investigators.

View image on Twitter

…though they later clarified, after speaking with Iranian officials, that the site had been cleared and the pieces moved to a different location.

Elizabeth Palmer

@elizapalmer

To clarify – Iran clearing wreckage of Airlines flight from crash site within 48 hours is not against any international rules or protocols. Investigators prefer to see where and how wreckage landed before moving, but it is not essential.

Elizabeth Palmer

@elizapalmer

cleared the wreckage of flight PS752 away from the site within 48 hours – but it has been collected at another location and is being examined by Ukrainian investigators.

If the world’s suspicions are accurate, and Flight 752 was really brought down by a short-range missile-defense system, officials would then need to determine whether the firing was an accident or deliberate – though most have suggested that an accident is the most likely scenario.

Iranian officials again denied that Flight 752 was brought down by a missile on Friday after Ukrainian officials told the press that they believed a missile strike or terrorist bombing were two of the four likely scenarios behind the crash that they were exploring.

END

IRAQ/USA

Iraqi PM states that the USA must establish a mechanism for troop withdrawal. The USA will not leave until their bases are paid for

(zerohedge)

Iraqi PM To Pompeo: US Must Establish Mechanism For Troop Withdrawal

Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, who is still serving in a ‘caretaker’ capacity, has informed Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that the US must establish a mechanism for the full withdrawal of remaining US troops in Iraq, which according to most estimates numbers around 5,000. Toward that end the Iraqi PM requested a US delegation be sent to work out such a plan.

According to the AP, Abdul-Mahdi made the request during a phone call with Pompeo on Thursday night. Specifically, the statement urged the administration to “send delegates to Iraq to prepare a mechanism to carry out the parliament’s resolution regarding the withdrawal of foreign troops from Iraq.”

Despite what appears a temporary de-escalation following Iran’s ballistic missile ‘counter-attack’ avenging the death of Qasem Soleimani, Abdul-Mahdi appears to have maintained his stance that the Americans should depart: “The prime minister said American forces had entered Iraq and drones are flying in its airspace without permission from Iraqi authorities and this was a violation of the bilateral agreements,” the statement continued.

 

Iraq’s caretaker Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi. Image source: AFP via Getty

Since the summer there’s been a growing political movement in Iraqi parliament to vote to formally expel the US military presence following the demise of ISIS, but most importantly after a series of unauthorized airstrikes on Iraqi soil targeting Shiite paramilitaries carried out by the United States and Israel.

At the start of this week, Iraq’s parliament did hold a largely symbolic vote to expel American forces which passed; however, despite international headlines suggesting it was a ‘done deal’, the reality is that it was merely a ‘non-binding’ though significant first step that could ultimately prove slow in realizing.

Despite the earlier confusion over a potentially leaked Pentagon letter which claimed to initiate immediate US troops withdrawal with the Iraqis, resulting in denials and confusion running through the chain of command, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper has since underscored that US troops will not be leaving Iraq.

And according to Axios, US officials attempted to halt the weekend Iraq parliament vote to expel American forces. “It’s our concern that Iraq would take a short-term decision that would have catastrophic long-term implications for the country and its security,” one unnamed Trump administration official was quoted as saying.

“But it’s also, what would happen to them financially,” the official told Axios“If they allowed Iran to take advantage of their economy to such an extent that they would fall under the sanctions that are on Iran?”

Surprisingly, the administration has of late invoked the threat of sanctions on its ally the Iraqi government, despite for years propping up the post-Saddam political system and military.

end

TURKEY/RUSSIA/SYRIA/IRAN

Russia and Turkey declare a ceasefire in Idlib province Syria home of the last remaining Isis fighters.  The reason: stem the flow of migrants into Turkey

(zerohedge)

Russia Declares Ceasefire Deal With Turkey In Idlib To Stem Refugee Tide

With all eyes on Iran and Iraq, and with the potential for a near-future US troop withdrawal from Iraq looming, the media has largely moved on from the other great festering problem which at any time could again become ground zero for full blown international proxy war: Idlib province.

Following a month-long major Russian-Syrian offensive against jihadists in Idlib, which has witnessed hundreds of aerial bombings and the exit of tens of thousands of civilians toward Turkey (and according to both UN figures and Erdogan this is over 250,000), Moscow and Ankara have announced a new ceasefire agreement for the contested northwest Syrian province.

 

Displaced Syrians at a border post with Turkey last August, via the AFP.

“According to the agreements with the Turkish side, the ceasefire regime was introduced in the Idlib de-escalation zone starting from 14:00 Moscow time (11:00 GMT) on January 9, 2020,” Russian Major-General Yury Borenkov announced Thursday. This has reportedly resulted in a “paused” Syrian Army offensive, which is to allow in humanitarian aid.

 

However, the key to any potentially lasting or significant pause in fighting relates to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) acceptance. The al-Qaeda group issued no initial comment on the Russian announcement.

The new ceasefire is part of a broader attempt by Turkey, Russia, and Iran to “de-escalate” the war in Idlib, also following pressure and threats out of Washington over the Syrian national offensive to liberate the territory from terrorists. Past attempts at any lasting ceasefire have witnessed sporadic mortar and missile attacks launched by al-Qaeda forces in areas south of Idlib, resulting in renewed Syrian Army operations to root out the insurgency.

Additionally, Moscow is engaged in broader efforts to ‘normalize’ Assad’s standing at the UN and among the so-called international community. As for Turkey, President Erdogan has lately voiced the impossibility of his country potentially absorbing millions more refugees from the Idlib war fallout while also repeating his well-known ‘blackmail’ threats to ‘open the gates’ of Syrian refugees on Europe.

 

As Al Jazeera reports, “Turkey has been pushing and calling for the ceasefire, in part because it is already under enormous strain from the influx of Syrian refugees already within its border.”

Prior attempts and Russia-Turkey brokered pauses or ceasefires in and around Idlib have been very short-lived, also given Syria’s Assad has vowed to restore every inch of natural Syria to Damascus authority.

end
IRAQ/USA
Pompeo to Mahdi: We are not leaving as it is “our right” to be here as “a force for good”
(zerohedge)

US Rebuffs Iraq PM Request To Talk Troop Exit: It’s “Our Right” As A “Force For Good” To Stay

Perhaps entirely to be expected, the US administration has unambiguously rejected Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi’s urgent call for Washington to enact a US troop ‘withdrawal mechanism’ in Iraq. In a Thursday phone call to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the Iraqi leader urged the administration to “send delegates to Iraq to prepare a mechanism to carry out the parliament’s resolution regarding the withdrawal of foreign troops from Iraq.”

Echoing prior statements of Mark Esper, the State Department underscored Friday that it’s “our right” as a “force for good” in the region to maintain “appropriate force posture in the Middle East” in a statement by spokesperson Morgan Ortagus. She stated the US considers that a troop pullout is not on the table for discussion with Baghdad officials.

“At this time, any delegation sent to Iraq would be dedicated to discussing how to best recommit to our strategic partnership — not to discuss troop withdrawal, but our right, appropriate force posture in the Middle East,” Ortagus said. The words also appear aimed at Abdul-Mahdi’s assertion that US forces were operating “without permission”.

 

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during a prior Middle East tour in early 2019, via the AP.

“America is a force for good in the Middle East,” she added. “Our military presence in Iraq is to continue the fight against ISIS and as the Secretary has said, we are committed to protecting Americans, Iraqis, and our coalition partners.”

And yet President Trump has previously declared the total demise of the Islamic State’s “territorial caliphate” — which has long been the main rationale for the Pentagon being there.

According to most estimates the US troop presence numbers around 5,000, which the Iraqi PM would like to see exit following a vote in Iraqi parliament early this week pushing through an initial non-binding resolution. Abdul-Mahdi requested that a US delegation be sent to Baghdad work out a precise plan for major US pullout.

“The prime minister said American forces had entered Iraq and drones are flying in its airspace without permission from Iraqi authorities and this was a violation of the bilateral agreements,” the Iraqi leader’s statement said.

According to Axios, US officials attempted to halt the weekend Iraq parliament vote to expel American forces. “It’s our concern that Iraq would take a short-term decision that would have catastrophic long-term implications for the country and its security,” one unnamed Trump administration official was quoted as saying.

“But it’s also, what would happen to them financially,” the official told Axios. “If they allowed Iran to take advantage of their economy to such an extent that they would fall under the sanctions that are on Iran?”

The supreme irony in all this is that seventeen years after Bush declared the “liberation” of the Iraqi people after his 2003 invasion, this is apparently what US-imposed “democracy” looks like — Washington issuing dictates on how to run the country from thousands of miles away, coupled with threat of sanctions if Baghdad doesn’t comply.

end

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1095 DOWN .0014 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.13 UP 0.134 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3081   UP   0.0012  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3070 UP .0007 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 14 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.11095 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 2.59 POINTS OR 0.08% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 77.20 POINTS OR 0.27%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,72%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 77.20 POINTS OR 0.27%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.59 POINTS OR 0.08%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 72% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP  110.79  POINTS OR 0.47%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1549.60

silver:$17.91-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.85% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.32 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 97.50 UP 5 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.39% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.00%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.44%//DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,32 DOWN 6 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 88 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.20% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.52% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1126  UP     .0017 or 17 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.47 DOWN .028 OR YEN UP 3  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3066 DOWN .0004 POUND DOWN 4  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 16 basis points to 1.3046

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9192    ON SHORE  (UP)..

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9125  (YUAN UP)..

 

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8653 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.00%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.82 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.28 DOWN 5 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.31 DOWN 14  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 10.27 OR  0.14%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 11.75 POINTS OR .092%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 5.44 POINTS 0.09%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 8.20 POINTS or 0.09%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 4.70 POINTS OR 0.02%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 59.09 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 65.27 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    60.97  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.34 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 34 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.24 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  59.05//

 

 

BRENT :  65.01

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.82  down 4 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.28..down 5 basis pts..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1121 ( UP 12   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.91 UP .016 (YEN DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.37 DOWN 8 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:13054 DOWN 15 BASIS  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8780

 

 

the Russian rouble 61.12   UP 0.19 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 19 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3054 UP 15 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.9192  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9141 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.20%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 133.33 POINTS OR 0.46%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 24.57 POINTS OR 0.27%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.62 CLOSED UP .08

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.847%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Tech Stocks Soar, Bonds Snore, As Oil Suffers Worst Week In Six Months

Well that was a week…

China was mixed on the week with larges caps flat to down and small cap tech soaring…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks were also mixed with Germany dominating and UK lagging…

Source: Bloomberg

DAX tested up to its record high…

Source: Bloomberg

In the US the picture was a little less mixed with Small Caps unable to hold gains while Nasdaq soared (but late-day weakness today spoiled the party)…Nasdaq 100 is up 5 weeks in a row (and 14 of the last 16 weeks)

Source: Bloomberg

Dow crossed above 29,000 for the first time today…

Not a pretty day today…

Futures give a much clearer picture on the week’s craziness however…

Breadth has worsened as this market surged higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Defensives handily outperformed cyclicals on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Value stocks relative to Growth plunged to a new cycle low

Source: Bloomberg

US Defense stocks soared to a new record high…

Source: Bloomberg

And then there’s AAPL (up 15 of the last 16 weeks)…

Source: Bloomberg

Credit protection costs collapsed further this week and equity protection also plunged with VIX back to a 12 handle…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably VIX Call volumes are soaring as the fear index plunges…

Source: Bloomberg

HY Bond risk dropped to its lowest since 2019’s April lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields tumbled the last two days, leaving them unchanged since Monday’s close and marginally higher on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y is back below the pre-Iran-missile-strike levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Bund yields also surged as the European corporate bond market saw a record-smashing $100 bn of issuance (and that means lots of rate-locks)…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar dipped today but ended the week higher (after two down weeks)…

Source: Bloomberg

Big week for cryptos with Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash leading…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin surged after Soleimani’s death, testing up towards $8500 before fading back a little…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil was the week’s biggest loser as copper and PMs clung to the green…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ended the week above the Soleimani-dead levels…

WTI Crude dropped over 6% on the week – its worst week since July 2019…

Finally, we have seen this kind of liquidity-fueled decoupling before…

Source: Bloomberg

And The Fed just let its balance sheet shrink by the most since May…

Source: Bloomberg

Is reality looming?

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/JOBS REPORT/USA/THIS MORNING

OFFICIAL REPORT

Despite the plug numbers, they still lost big. Only a 145,000 gain as payrolls tumble by 111,000 and wage gains slump to a 17 month low

(zerohedge)

December Jobs Miss Big: 145K Payrolls Tumble By 111K As Wage Gains Slump To 17 Month Low

While it is safe to say that the Fed – and markets – will largely ignore today’s payroll print in a time when the central bank is injecting $100BN in in liquidity every month regardless of the macro data, it is still notable that the December payrolls report was a disappointing 145K, missing expectations of 160K (and the whisper number of 180K), and 111K lower from the downward revised 256K in December (revised from 266K).

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised down by 4,000 from +156,000 to +152,000, and the change for November was revised down by 10,000 from +266,000 to +256,000. With these revisions, employment gains in October and November combined were 14,000 lower than previously reported.  After revisions, job gains have averaged 184,000 over the last 3 months.

Looking below the surface, the biggest surprise was manufacturing employment which after a surge in January as the GM strike ended, slumped once again in December, down -12,000, the second biggest drop since the summer of 2016.

The unemployment rate came in at 3.5%, as expected, however a look at the composition revealed some weakness as black unemployment jumped to 5.9%, the highest since July 2019.

There was more bad news (or good news if you are the Fed): average hourly earnings rose a disappointing 0.1% M/M in December, well below the consensus estimate of 0.3%, and just 2.9% Y/Y, which was the worst annual increase in July 2018. The silver lining: this was largely due to wages for managers and supervisors as the average hourly wages for production and non-supervisory position rose 3.7%, just shy of the cycle high recorded in November.

 

Looking at the sector breakdown, job gains occurred in retail trade and health care, while mining lost jobs. In 2019, payroll employment rose by 2.1 million, down from a gain of 2.7 million in 2018.

  • In December, retail trade added 41,000 jobs. Employment increased in clothing and accessories stores (+33,000) and in building material and garden supply stores (+7,000); both industries showed employment declines in the prior month. Employment in retail trade changed little, on net, in both 2019 and 2018 (+9,000 and +14,000, respectively).
  • Employment in health care increased by 28,000 in December. Ambulatory health care services and hospitals added jobs over the month (+23,000 and +9,000, respectively). Health care added 399,000 jobs in 2019, compared with an increase of 350,000 in 2018.
  • Employment in leisure and hospitality continued to trend up in December (+40,000). The industry added 388,000 jobs in 2019, similar to the increase in 2018 (+359,000).
  • Mining employment declined by 8,000 in December. In 2019, employment in mining declined by 24,000, after rising by 63,000 in 2018.
  • Construction employment changed little in December (+20,000). Employment in the industry rose by 151,000 in 2019, about half of the 2018 gain of 307,000.
  • In December, employment in professional and business services showed little change (+10,000). The industry added 397,000 jobs in 2019, down from an increase of 561,000 jobs in 2018.
  • Employment in transportation and warehousing changed little in December (-10,000). Employment in the industry increased by 57,000 in 2019, about one-fourth of the 2018 gain of 216,000.
  • Manufacturing employment was little changed in December (-12,000). Employment in the industry changed little in 2019 (+46,000), after increasing in 2018 (+264,000).

So what does all this mean? Well, the headline jobs print – while disappointing – is hardly a disaster, and confirms that the overall economy is slowing, hardly a shock. Meanwhile the fading wage reflation impulse will be wonderful news for the Fed which has already indicated it won’t hike any time soon, and the lack of wage pressures only confirms that Powell will not tighten for a long, long time, if ever

END

Where The December Jobs Were: Who Is Hiring And Who Isn’t

After the “bang” of a November jobs juggernaut, when the US economy added a whopping 256K jobs (revised lower from 266K) largely on the back of a surge in mfg jobs as GM workers returned from strike, the December jobs report was decidedly a whimper, with just 145K jobs added, a sharp 111K drop from the prior month and below the 160K consensus estimate.

What is more concerning than the headline payroll, was the parallel drop in average hourly earnings, which posted the lowest annual increase since July 2018.

Why the wage weakness? One look at the composition of job gains in December reveals the reason for the latest poor wage print: Of the 145K December job gains, 80% went to minimum-wage and low-paying industries, namely 41.2K new retail workers, 40K Leisure and Hospitality workers and another 36K Education and health workers, a total of 117 minimum wage, or close to it, job gains.

Indeed, as shown in the chart below, unlike November’s blockbuster gains in professional & business service and manufacturing jobs, December’s job gains were mostly across low-paying jobs.

Worse, on the other ends, December also revealed big drops in some of the best paying jobs, namely manufacturing, transportation and mining, all of which shrank in December. In fact, as we showed previously, manufacturing just suffered its second worst month in 4 years, and November’s huge drop was largely a function of the GM strike, so one can argue that the December manufacturing slump is the starkest consequence yet of the ongoing trade war with China.

Some other observations on who is hiring, and who isn’t:

  • Retail trade added 41,000 jobs. Employment increased in clothing and accessories stores (+33,000) and in building material and garden supply stores (+7,000); both industries showed employment declines in the prior month. Employment in retail trade changed little, on net, in both 2019 and 2018 (+9,000 and +14,000, respectively).
  • Health care employment increased by 28,000 in December. Ambulatory health care services and hospitals added jobs over the month (+23,000 and +9,000, respectively). Health care added 399,000 jobs in 2019, compared with an increase of 350,000 in 2018.
  • Leisure and hospitality jobs continued to trend up in December (+40,000). The industry added 388,000 jobs in 2019, similar to the increase in 2018 (+359,000).
  • Mining employment declined by 8,000 in December. In 2019, employment in mining declined by 24,000, after rising by 63,000 in 2018.
  • Construction employment changed little in December (+20,000). Employment in the industry rose by 151,000 in 2019, about half of the 2018 gain of 307,000.
  • Employment in professional and business services showed little change (+10,000). The industry added 397,000 jobs in 2019, down from an increase of 561,000 jobs in 2018.
  • Transportation and warehousing jobs were changed little in December (-10,000). Employment in the industry increased by 57,000 in 2019, about one-fourth of the 2018 gain of 216,000.
  • Manufacturing employment dropped in December (-12,000). Employment in the industry changed little in 2019 (+46,000), after increasing in 2018 (+264,000).

Finally, courtesy of Bloomberg, here is a breakdown of the ten industries with the highest and lowest rates of employment growth for the most recent month; it shows that there was a renaissance in museum and actor jobs as we closed out 2019.

END

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Dow Tops 29,000, Trump Says “Best Is Yet To Come”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average just topped 29,000 for the first time…

…with Dow futures up 900 points from Tuesday night lows

Apple has led the Dow’s most recent surge (on fundamentals)…

Source: Bloomberg

The weekly RSI is now signaling The Dow is at its most overbought since right before Feb 2018’s Volmageddon and September 2018’s start of a collapse…

Source: Bloomberg

And if you’re still deluded enough to believe this is about fundamentals in any way, there’s this…

Source: Bloomberg

President Trump says “the best is yet to come”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

“11,000 points gained in the Dow in the 3 years since the Election of President Trump. Today it may hit 29,000. That has NEVER happened before in that time frame. That has added 12.8 Trillion Dollars to the VALUE of American Business.” @Varneyco @FoxNews The best is yet to come!

Trade accordingly.

end

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

BOEING

Emails from Boeing employees talking about the design of Boeing 737 Max etc

(zerohedge)

“This Plane Was Designed By Clowns, Who Are Supervised By Monkeys” – Shocking Boeing Emails Reveal Contempt For Management, FAA

 

We have never heard a more damning description of the relationship between a corporation and its regulators than a line that has been plucked from a batch of company emails that Boeing has just handed over to the FAA (and which the FAA has, apparently, leaked to the press).

Per the New York Times:

“This airplane is designed by clowns, who are in turn supervised by monkeys…”

In recent weeks, a series of reports claiming Boeing neglected to turn over critical information to the FAA regarding the development of the 737 MAX 8, Boeing’s new “workhorse” model that has been grounded around the world for the last 10 months, after a pair of suspicious crashes raised suspicions of possible flaws in the plane’s anti-stall software.

 

According to more than 100 pages of internal company communications (which were apparently withheld from the FAA during the certification process for the jet) Boeing employees could be heard mocking federal rules, openly discussing their deception of regulators, and joking about the MAX’s potential flaws.

The most shocking messages were sent by Boeing pilots and other employees who can be seen discussing software issues and problems with the flight simulator software for hte MAX, which is particularly disturbing since it was issues with the plane’s MCAS software that were found to have contributed to two avoidable crashes and the brutal deaths of 346 people.

In one message, one Boeing employee openly admits to deceiving the FAA on behalf of the company.

“I still haven’t been forgiven by God for the covering up I did last year,” one of the employees said in messages from 2018, apparently in reference to interactions with the Federal Aviation Administration.

In another, a group of Boeing test pilots agreed that they wouldn’t want their families flying with pilots trained on the new Boeing 737 MAX 8 flight simulator.

Would you put your family on a Max simulator trained aircraft? I wouldn’t,” one employee said to a colleague in another exchange from 2018, before the first crash. “No,” the colleague responded.

As the New York Times explains, the release of these communications, both emails and instant messages, is “the latest embarrassing episode for Boeing in a crisis that has cost the company billions of dollars and wreaked havoc on the aviation industry across the globe.”

 

It should go without saying that these messages “threaten to complicate Boeing’s relationship with the FAA” at a time when it’s still unclear when the MAX might be cleared to fly again.

Yet, as we mentioned above, this is only the latest and perhaps most jarring of a string of revelations citing internal documents and communications. Forget “regulatory capture” – a term that’s often used to criticize the revolving-door nature of Wall Street compliance officials and the regulatory agencies supposed to keep their firms in line – this is regulatory irrelevance.

And any Boeing shareholders who experienced an escalating dread as they read this post – it’s okay, you can relax.

Because once again, the market just doesn’t care. Plane crashes have been normalized in 2020, and so, apparently, has gross incompetence and contempt for both government regulators and the broader public.

END

What is the world coming to?  Credible sources form internal secret documents reveal that a female suicide bomber of middle eastern persuasion is coming up from the South to enter the uSA

(zerohedge/DHS)

DHS Warns Female Suicide Bomber ‘Of Middle Eastern Descent’ Being Smuggled Into The US Within Days

The US border patrol is on alert for a possible suicide bomber heading north toward the US-Mexico border, according to Breitbart, which obtained a copy of an internal memo issued by Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) under the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

“On January 8, 2020, Yuma Sector (YUM) Operations Center (OPCEN) received information from Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) regarding a Guatemalan National [name redacted], who was deported from California approximately a year ago. Information received claims that [redacted] may attempt to smuggle 4 males and 1 female (suspected suicide bomber) of Middle Eastern descsent into the United States.”

The group has traveled through Guatemala, Belize, and is currently in Veracruz, Mexico, and is headed towards Sonora, Mexico. They plan to cross into the United States “in the next couple of days,” through the All-American Canal in California, according to the alert, which notes that no specific time or location are given.

As Breitbart notes, “The report being authentic does not verify that a suicide bomber is actually headed toward the U.S.-Mexico Border, but rather that such intelligence was received from a credible source or sources.”

 

end
Retail Apocalypse!!
(courtesy Mac Slavo/SHFTplan.com)

Retail Apocalypse Surges Into 2020: No End In Sight

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

The retail apocalypse was particularly bad in 2019, and only days into 2020, Macy’s has announced it’ll begin closing stores, following a trend in the industry.  Macy’s will close a minimum of 28 stores, and one Bloomingdale’s as problems in retail continue.

With consumer spending so high, it’s hard to imagine a reason for store closures.

 

“We regularly review our store portfolio and will provide an update at our Investor Day on February 5th,” the company said in a statement sent to USA TODAY.

Clearance sales will begin this month and run for eight to 12 weeks, Macy’s Media Relations Manager Julianne Bartosz said in an email to TCPalm.com, which is part of the USA TODAY Network, about the Macy’s in the Indian River Mall in Vero Beach, Florida.  Most other locations to be shuttered have not yet been disclosed.  Officials also steered clear of an exact number of closings, say there would be a “minimum of 28 stores” permanently closed.

Among the government and Federal Reserve’s insistence that consumers are spending money, Macy’s reported a drop in holiday sales. Macy’s November and December sales results Wednesday, which showed holiday sales did not meet the expectations. “Macy’s, Inc.’s performance during the holiday season reflected a strong trend improvement from the third quarter,” CEO Jeff Gennette said in a news release. “Additionally, customers responded to our gifting assortment and marketing strategy, particularly in the 10 days before Christmas.”

In a statement sent to USA TODAY, Neil Saunders, the managing director of GlobalData Retail, said most of Macy’s legacy stores “looked shabby and lacked festive cheer. In our view, they remain unfit for purpose and there is a big question mark over their long-term future.”

Saunders called the decision to shutter underperforming locations “a foretaste of things to come if Macy’s does not invest in and reinvigorate these outlets.”

end

iv) Swamp commentaries

this could be fascinating: a new lawsuit claims that Rod Rosenstein led a task force that spied on Sharyl Attkison and her computer

(Heine/AMGreatness.com)

New Lawsuit Claims Rod Rosenstein Led Task Force that Spied On Sharyl Attkisson’s Computer

Authored by Debra Heine via AMGreatness.com,

In a federal lawsuit filed this week, Former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein has been implicated in yet another improper government spy operation.

In the new complaint, Attkisson v. Rosenstein et.al., investigative journalist Sharyl Attkisson names former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosentein and four other Justice Department officials as the government agents who of illegally survielled her electronic devices.

According to the complaint – filed in United States District Court in Baltimore, Maryland – Rosenstein led “a multi-agency task force in Baltimore that conducted surveillance of the Attkissons’ computer systems” and “used USPS IP addresses on other occasions to conduct operations.”

The complaint states that all of the defendants “were agents and/or employees of the United States Government working with Rosenstein”  to conduct “the unlawful surveillance and hacking of the computer systems of the Plaintiffs.”

In June of 2017, Rosenstein signed off on the fourth and final application for the improper FISA warrant to spy on former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page. A month earlier, he offered to wear a wire to spy on President Trump when he visited the Oval Office, although he later claimed that he was just joking.

Attkisson took to Twitter Thursday to explain in a video update about her case that she had just filed a new lawsuit in her years long fight “to hold the government agents accountable for the intrusions into my computer.”

In a comprehensive summary of the case at sharylattkisson.com, the reporter alleges that the intrusions began in 2011 while she was reporting at CBS on the massive government gunwalking scandal “Fast and Furious.” The government continued to spy on her computers while she was reporting on the Benghazi scandal.

Multiple forensic exams show that numerous electronic devices used by Attkisson and her family during this time frame were hacked or remotely compromised. Unauthorized parties used government Internet Protocol (IP) addresses to access Attkisson’s computers; placed government surveillance spyware on her devices; and illegally accessed her professional and personal information over an extended period of time.

The summary states that in March of 2019, an appellate panel of three judges determined the former Attorney General Eric Holder had immunity from Attkisson’s claims.

Two of the three judges ruled Attkisson’s claims should be dismissed because she took too long, three years— and without success—to determine the names of the “John Doe” federal agents involved in the intrusions of her computers.

A third judge rightly dissented, understanding that Attkisson consistently attempted to identify the John Does but the Department of Justice continuously blocked discovery, filed protective orders and filed motions to dismiss in an attempt to obstruct. The government did not turn over a single piece of paper in response to more than a dozen subpoenas.

The dissenting judge called the government’s actions “Kafkaesque” for obstructing Attkisson and then blaming her for “taking too long.”

“We have just filed a new complaint which I hope satisfies one of the issues a judge had that we’ve not been able to name the actual names of the government agents involved in the intrusion,” Attkison announced in her video. “Of course we argued we could not name the names because the government and courts would not permit us discovery to learn the names!”

She added: “We did some additional detective work. We have five names to present to the court—names based on our information that were directly involved in the surveillance of my computers. One of them is Rod Rosenstein, then U.S. Attorney in Baltimore, a former Department of Justice official.”

Sharyl Attkisson🕵️‍♂️

@SharylAttkisson

“Fmr. govt. agent admits illegally spying on Attkisson, implicates Rosenstein & colleagues.”
“Fmr. FBI Unit Chief confirms he initiated forensics that proved govt. computer intrusion.”
More at http://SharylAttkisson.com@TheJusticeDept @realDonaldTrump https://www.gofundme.com/f/sharyl-attkisson-4th-am-litigation 

Embedded video

Besides Attkisson, the other plaintiffs in the case are her husband and daughter who were also subjected to the illegal surveillance.

Besides Rosenstein, the other defendants named in the complaint are Shawn Henry, Sean Wesley Bridges, Robert Clarke, and Ryan White.

In 2010, then FBI Director Robert Mueller named Shawn Henry as the executive assistant director (EAD) of the Criminal, Cyber, Response, and Services Branch (CCRSB).

Henry left the FBI in 2012 and now is president of CrowdStrike Services, the cybersecurity firm hired by Democratic National Committee to examine its computer network in 2016 after it had been hacked. Crowdstrike ultimately determined Russia had hacked the DNC emails.

Shaun Wesley Bridges served as a Special Agent with the U.S. Secret Service for approximately six years, according to the complaint.

 

Between 2012 and 2014, he was assigned to the Baltimore Silk Road Task Force, a multi-agency group investigating illegal activity on the Silk Road, a covert online marketplace for illicit goods, including drugs.

In 2015 and 2017, Bridges was convicted of corruption related to his government work, and is now serving a prison sentence.

Defendant Robert Clarke was also a member of the Silk Road Task Force and Ryan White worked as an undercover informant for the DOJ.

White also worked as a contractor operating out of the Baltimore office under a group supervised by Rosenstein, according to the complaint.

In this capacity, White conducted work for the FBI, United States Secret Service, Drug Enforcement Administration and the Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms, where he and others were ordered to illegally hack into computer systems, servers, emails and phones.

“These defendants, as Government-officials, agents or employees, violated the Constitution as shown herein through their own individual actions,” the complaint states.

As part of the lawsuit, former FBI Unit Chief Les Szwajkowski confirms that he facilitated a forensic exam in January of 2013 that revealed government surveillance spyware in Attkisson’s computer. Szwajkowski signed a sworn Affidavit confirming the government intrusion into Attkisson’s computers.

The specialist quickly identified spyware proprietary to the federal government in Attkisson’s computer, according to Szwajkowski. He advised Attkisson that he and his intel associates were “shocked” that the government had used covert surveillance on a national journalist and he said they thought it was “outrageous.”

Szwajkowski says he reported to Attkisson that the analysis showed clear evidence that her computer was infiltrated with government spyware proprietary to the CIA, FBI or National Security Agency (NSA). Forensics indicated the particular intrusion uncovered by the analysis was accomplished through software attached to an otherwise innocuous email sent to Attkisson in February 2012.

Attkisson alleges that “numerous other Americans” were also targeted by Rosenstein’s unit while he was the U.S. Attorney in Baltimore, Maryland.

END

Pelosi To Send Articles Of Impeachment To Senate Next Week

After several weeks of delays, Nancy Pelosi’s gambit of withholding the articles of impeachment from the Senate appears to have backfired following intense pressure not only from Republicans – amid a series of political, economic and stock market victories by Trump who managed to put the impeachment news solidly on the back burner – but also amid a rising outcry by frustrated Democrats, and moments ago the House Speaker said the House will prepare to send articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump to the Senate next week, just one day after Mitch McConnell said he was backing a resolution to change the Senate’s rules to allow for lawmakers to dismiss the articles of impeachment against Trump before the House sends them over.

“I have asked Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler to be prepared to bring to the floor next week a resolution to appoint managers and transmit articles of impeachment to the Senate,” Pelosi wrote in a letter to House Democrats on Friday.

“I will be consulting with you at our Tuesday House Democratic Caucus meeting on how we proceed further” she wrote further, effectively capitulating to Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, who has promised a speedy acquittal of Trump, and has all but told Pelosi to pound sand, saying in a Wednesday speech on the Senate floor: “There will no haggling with the House over Senate procedure,” adding “We will not cede our authority to try this impeachment.”

Adam Klasfeld

@KlasfeldReports

NEW from Speaker Pelosi: “I have asked Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler to be prepared to bring to the Floor next week a resolution to appoint managers and transmit articles of impeachment to the Senate.”

cc: @CourthouseNews

Pelosi’s full letter is below:

Dear Democratic Colleague,

For weeks now, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell has been engaged in tactics of delay in presenting transparency, disregard for the American people’s interest for a fair trial and dismissal of the facts.

Yesterday, he showed his true colors and made his intentions to stonewall a fair trial even clearer by signing on to a resolution that would dismiss the charges. A dismissal is a cover-up and deprives the American people of the truth. Leader McConnell’s tactics are a clear indication of the fear that he and President Trump have regarding the facts of the President’s violations for which he was impeached.

The American people have clearly expressed their view that we should have a fair trial with witnesses and documents, with more than 70 percent of the public stating that the President should allow his top aides to testify. Clearly, Leader McConnell does not want to present witnesses and documents to Senators and the American people so they can make an independent judgment about the President’s actions.

Honoring our Constitution, the House passed two articles of impeachment against the President — abuse of power and obstruction of Congress — to hold the President accountable for asking a foreign government to interfere in the 2020 elections for his own political and personal gain.

While the House was able to obtain compelling evidence of impeachable conduct, which is enough for removal, new information has emerged, which includes:

On December 20, new emails showed that 91 minutes after Trump’s phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky, a top Office of Management and Budget (OMB) aide asked the Department of Defense to “hold off’ on sending military aid to Ukraine.

On December 29, revelations emerged about OMB Director and Acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney’s role in the delay of aid, the effort by lawyers at the OMB, the Department of Justice and the White House to justify the delay, and the alarm that the delay caused within the Administration.

On January 2, newly-unredacted Pentagon emails, which we had subpoenaed and the President had blocked, raised serious concerns by Trump Administration officials about the kg, of the  President’s hold on aid to Ukraine.

And on January 6, just this week, former Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton announced he would comply with a subpoena compelling his testimony. His lawyers have stated he has new relevant information.

I am very proud of the courage and patriotism exhibited by our House Democratic Caucus as we support and defend the Constitution. I have asked Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler to be prepared to bring to the Floor next week a resolution to appoint managers and transmit articles of impeachment to the Senate. I will be consulting with you at our Tuesday House Democratic Caucus meeting on how we proceed further.

In an impeachment trial, every Senator takes an oath to “do impartial justice according to the Constitution and laws.” Every Senator now faces a choice: to be loyal to the President or the Constitution.

No one is above the law, not even the President.

Thank you for your leadership For The People.

end

US Begins Probe Of Russian “Meddling” In Biden 2020 Campaign

Scapegoating by the establishment (for a Dem loss) or pre-emptive actions by Trump (for a Trump victory which will be inevitably besmirched by another round of sore-losing snowflakes)?

It’s hard to know for sure but one thing is certain, it will prolong the ‘Russia, Russia, Russia’ headlines for one more news cycle.

Bloomberg reports that, according to two officials familiar with the matter, US intelligence and law enforcement have begun a probe to assess whether Russia is trying to “meddle’ in Joe Biden’s nomination (and perhaps election, as he remains the front-runner) campaign.

Part of the inquiry is reportedly to determine whether Russia is trying to weaken Biden by promoting controversy over his past involvement in U.S. policy toward Ukraine while his son worked for an energy company there.

As one anonymous official proclaimed – despite zero evidence of this actually happening other than an extremely small ad spend on Facebook? – a Kremlin strategy to undermine Biden would echo its work in 2016, when American intelligence agencies found that Russia carried out a sophisticated operation to damage Democrat Hillary Clinton and ultimately help Trump.

“In America, they’re using social media and many other tools to inflame social divisions, promote conspiracy theories and sow distrust in our democracy and elections,” William Evanina, director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, said in a statement.

“As we look ahead to 2020, one thing I can guarantee is they’ll keep up their influence campaigns and utilize new vectors of disinformation.”

But, as Bloomberg is quick to remind readers, Russia’s campaign interference in 2016 resulted in a multiagency investigation that led to a highly classified intelligence assessment, part of which was made public in January 2017.

Trump has questioned the finding of Russian meddling and has asserted that government agents biased against him conducted a “witch hunt” into whether his campaign conspired with Russia.

“Vladimir Putin has interfered in our elections before and it’s no surprise he’s doing so again to prop up President Trump,” said Biden campaign spokesman Andrew Bates.

“Biden is to 2020 what Clinton was to 2016,” said Clint Watts, a former FBI agent who has been tracking Russia’s foreign influence operations.

“When you watch just how they speak publicly, they’re very clear that, yes, a second term of Trump would be great.”

“Going all the way back to May they were talking about Biden-Ukraine very heavily,” he said.

“It’s a great narrative for them.”

The potential for Russia to spread falsehoods – and to develop increasingly sophisticated techniques to do so – is one of the bigger concerns that U.S. officials have as the 2020 election approaches, said John Demers, head of the Justice Department’s national security division.

One thing is notable – no one is claiming China is meddling? Yet!

END

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Well that is all for today

I will see you MONDAY night.

 

 

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