JAN 13//ANOTHER RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER: GOLD DOWN $8.75 TO $1550.05//SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TO $17.98//MORE QUEUE JUMPING IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER//IRAN ADMITS IT DOWNED THE UKRAINIAN AIRCRAFT///HUGE PROTESTS IN IRAN FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS//HSBC ACCUSES MENG ( OF HUAWEI) OF FRAUD AND MISREPRESENTATIONS IN THEIR HOLDINGS IN IRAN//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD::$1550.05 DOWN $8.75    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.98 DOWN 10 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

 

Gold :  $1548.30

 

silver:  $17.98

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  2/9

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,557.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/10/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 01/14/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 3
661 C JP MORGAN 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 8 2
905 C ADM 1 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 9 9
MONTH TO DATE: 2,537

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN CONTRACT: 9 NOTICE(S) FOR 900 OZ (0.0279 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  2537 NOTICES FOR 253,700 OZ  (7.8911 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JAN

 

 

2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 10,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 381 for 1,905,000 oz

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 8083 UP 103 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8148 DOWN 35

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 513 CONTRACTS FROM 233,972 UP TO 234,485 WITH OUR STRONG 16 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A   STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  575 AND MAY: 240 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  815 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 815 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 815 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 4.075 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 16 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

1.945     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN JAN

FRIDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 16 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED 1328 CONTRACTS. OR 6.64 MILLION OZ…..

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JAN:

12,489 CONTRACTS (FOR 8 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 12,489 CONTRACTS) OR 62.445 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1461 CONTRACTS OR 7.805 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN:  62.445 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 8.92% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          62.445   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 62.445 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4513, WITH THE STRONG 16 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /FRIDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 815 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA)

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED  SIZED: 1328 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 815 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 513 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 16 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.08 // FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.171 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 167% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JAN MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 33 NOTICE(S) FOR 165,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018.  AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN: 1,945,000  OZ
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2617 CONTRACTS UP TO 787,632 MOVING CLOSER TO OUR ALL TIME RECORD (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. 

THE SMALLISH RISE IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE A STRONG GAIN OF  $5.80 IN PRICING  ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// FRIDAY// / 

 

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 3929 CONTRACTS:

JAN 2020: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB>  3596 CONTRACTS APRIL: 33; DEC. 300 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 787,632,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A  STRONG BUT CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6546 CONTRACTS: 2617 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 3929 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 6546 CONTRACTS OR 654,600 OZ OR 20.36 TONNES.  FRIDAY WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF $5.80 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND DESPITE THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 20.36  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (UP $5.80) THEY WERE TOTALLY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO  FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD OUR HUGE GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (20.36 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER.

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN SILVER AS THEY MORPH INTO GOLD AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE FEBRUARY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR GOLD:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF JAN. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN : 71,065 CONTRACTS OR 7,106,500 oz OR 221.04 TONNES (8 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8883 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 221.04 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 221.04/3550 x 100% TONNES =6.22% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     221.04  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 221.04 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2617 DESPITE THE STRONG  PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK FRIDAY($5.80)) //.WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 3929 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 3939 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A STRONG BUT CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 6546 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

3929 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2617 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 20.36 TONNES). ..AND THIS  INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $5.80 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING//RAID// AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

THIS IS ABSOLUTELY CRIMINAL:

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $8.75 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

THE CROOKS RAIDED THE GLD OF PAPER GOLD: 7.6 TONNES (WITHDRAWAL)

JAN 13/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 874.52 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY

THE CROOKS RAIDED THE SLV TO THE TUNE OF: 1.261 MILLION PAPER OZ FROM THE SLV

 

 

 

JAN 13/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 513 CONTRACTS from 233,972 UP TO 234,485 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

EFP ISSUANCE 815

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  575:  AND MAY: 240 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 815 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 513  CONTRACTS TO THE 815 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD GAIN OF 1328 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6.64 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 1.945 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE STRONG 16 CENT LOSS GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 815 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23.28 POINTS OR 0.75%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 316.74 131.51 POINTS OR 1.11%   /The Nikkei closed UP 110.70 POINTS OR 0.47%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .31%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8947 /Oil UP TO 59.10 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.91 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8947 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8921 TRADE TALKS STALL////TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)Taiwan

Taiwan’s Pro Independence President Tsai wins reelection and a shocking rebuke to Beijing that wants to unify Taiwan with Mainland China

(zerohedge)

ii)CHINA/HSBC HUAWEI

Oh OH! this does not look good:  HSBC has now accused Huawei’s Meng of defrauding the bank into loaning billions as they misrepresentation their position holdings in Iran. HSBC is providing a amicus courtae to the court trying to stop her release from Canada
(Ian Young)
SCMP

iiiCHINA

Internally China is not doing too good:  Car sales plunge by a huge 7.5% in 2019 and a whopping 3.6% in December

(zerohedge)

IV)CHINA/USA

The phase one part of trade deal stops the bleeding but does not resolve the trade war, warns the uSA Chamber of Commerce

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAN// DOWNED UKRAINIAN JET/SATURDAY

Iran on Saturday admits that it accidentally shot down that Ukrainian Passenger jet

(zerohedge)

ii)IRAN/SATURDAY/USA

Soleimani was not the only one targeted:  they wanted the key guy in Yemen

(zerohedge)

iii)IRAN/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

Huge protests in Iran on the weekend demanding that the Ayatollah quit over the airplane downing.
(zerohedge)

iv)IRAN/USA

Trump orders Iran to turn back on the internet and also orders the Iranian government not to kill protesters.  That fell on deaf ears, as the government ordered a crackdown on the protesters.

(zerohedge)

v)IRAN/MONDAY

Getting pretty ugly in Iran, Monday morning as the regime crackdown on Iranian protesters

(zerohedge)

vi)IRAN/IRAQ/USA/SUNDAY NIGHT

Not good: it seems that Defense secretary Esper has contradicted Trump on specific evidence of embassy plots by the Soleimani’s gang of thugs

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

Why are volcanoes  (and earthquakes) erupting all over the globe now?

This frightens me greatly

(Michael Snyder)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

a)Interesting:  this new found gold bar shows that the stealing of gold has a very longhistory

(Reuters)

b)Welcome to Jachymov, the first town to ever accept the dollar and now outlaws it

(BBC.GATA)

c)The market anticipates that JPMorgan and the boys will orchestrate a derivative raid on Bitcoin and knock the price down.

(Bloomberg/GATA)

d)Our Indian citizens love gold because it never ever fails them

(the Mint/New Delhi/GATA)

e)Rhodium is the most precious metal on earth.  Could the reason be for its record high price be that there is no futures market on it?

(Bloomberg/GATA)

f)A very important read from Brandon Smith as he outlines why we must procur gold to guard against the coming crash

(Brandon Smith/Alt Market.com)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Saturday

aTrump now states that Soleimani plotted to bomb 4 USA embassies. On Sunday Esper contraddicted the President

(zerohedge)

b)The following illustrates how Trump used the Swiss to defuse the Iranian crisis

(zerohedge)
c)USA/Truck Manufacturing orders

Truck manufacturing orders plunge to decade lows in 2019
(zerohedge)

d)This is a good indicator on the health of the economy: commercial and industrial loans.  If they are falling in issuance by the banks it means the economy is probably heading into a recession

(courtesy WolfRichter)

e)PG and E problems.  If PG and E does not pay the 4 billion owed to FEMA, then the Feds may go after some of the victims who received money already.

What a mess
(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)What an absolute joke!  The FISA court picks a Trump hater to fix their problems

(zerohedge)

b)Biden has been on the record for endorsing Bush’s war in Iraq

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2617 CONTRACTS TO 787,632 MOVING CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  THE CONSIDERABLE GAIN IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $5.80 IN GOLD PRICING // FRIDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 3928 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 3596  AND APRIL: 33,  DEC 300 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3928 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG BUT CRIMINALLY SIZED 6546 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 3929 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2617 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERUNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE BY $5.80). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED A STRONG AND CRIMINALLY SIZED  6546 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES…..

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  6546 CONTRACTS OR 654,600 OZ OR 20.36 TONNES.  

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  787,632 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 78.76 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,449 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,452/2200 OR 111.3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

We are now in the   NON active contract month of JAN.  This month is generally one of the poorest of delivery months for the year.  Here we have a total of 31 open interest left to be served upon, for a LOSS of 32 contracts.   We had 37 notices served up on Thursday so we surprisingly gained another 5 contracts or an additional 500 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of January. I can now safely say that the comex is under attack for metal!!

The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed a LOSS OF 22,195 in contracts DOWN to 460,509.  

March received another 90 contracts to stand at an open interest of 730.

The next active delivery month after March is April and here we witnessed a gain of 21,929 contacts up to 201,731 oi contracts.

We had 9 open interest notices served upon today for 900 oz

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY TINY SIZED 513 CONTRACTS FROM 233,972 UP TO 234,485 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND OUR SMALL  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A STRONG 16 CENT GAIN IN PRICING/THURSDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

Here we have a LOSS of 31 contracts DOWN to 10. We had 33 notices served on THURSDAY, so we gained 2 contracts or an additional 10,000 oz will stand for delivery during this non active delivery month of January. Silver along with gold are under attack for metal!! Our bankers have their work cut out for them.

 

 

 

After January, we have  the non active month of February and here we saw a LOSS of 2 contracts TO A LEVEL OF  475.  March is a very active month and here we witness a LOSS of 1462 contracts DOWN to 178,536

 

 

We, today, had 2 notice(s) filed for 10,000, OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 378,026 contracts    

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY422,933 contracts

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JAN/GOLD

JAN 13/2020

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
9 notice(s)
 900 OZ
(0.279 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
22 contracts
(2200 oz)
0.0684 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2537 notices
253700 OZ
7.8911 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

 

ii)into everybody else: 0

 

total deposits:  0  oz

 

 

 

we had 3 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks:  1253.889

ii) Out of HSBC: 199.51 oz

iii) Out of BNS: 578.700 oz 18 kilobars

 

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 2032.099  oz

ADJUSTMENTS:  0

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  ADDED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE JAN 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 9 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2537) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JAN. (31 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (9 x 100 oz per contract) equals 255,900 OZ OR 7.9444 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JAN

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (2537 x 100 oz)  + (31)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (9 x 100 oz )which equals 255,900 oz standing OR 7.959 TONNES in this  NON active delivery month of JAN.

WE GAINED 5 CONTACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 500 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AND THUS REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY REFUSING TO TRAVEL TO LONDON THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 34.11 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

 

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    7.959 TONNES

 

total: 129.84 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 6 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 19.2540 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 129.85  tonnes

 

Thus:

129.85 tonnes of delivery –

19.2540 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 110.59 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 34.017 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,334,232.623 oz or  41.50 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 109,365.15 oz (34.017 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC  which cannot settle upon:  240,581.146 oz  ( 7.4830    TONNES)//+
    total  7.38989 tonnes
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  109,365.15  (34.017 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,705,344.502 oz 270.772 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

JAN 13
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 50,375.320 oz
loomis

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
599,611.269 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
2
CONTRACT(S)
(10,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
8 contracts
 40,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  381 contracts

1,905,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

ii) Into CNT: 599,611.269

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.4% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/319.730 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  599,611.269  oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of Loomis: 50,375.320 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 50,375.320   oz

We had 0 adjustment:

 

 

total dealer silver:  84.107 million

total dealer + customer silver:  320.403 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the JAN 2020. contract month is represented by 2 contract(s) FOR 10,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  JAN, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 381 x 5,000 oz =1,905,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (10) and the number of notices served upon today 2 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JAN/2019 contract month: 381 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN (10- number of notices served upon today (2) x 5000 oz equals 1,945,000 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month.

WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX AND REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY DOING THIS THEY ALSO NEGATED RECEIVING A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 2 notice(s) filed for 10,000 OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  61,181 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 92,763 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 92, 763 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 549 million  OZ   78.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

and 81.48% of total silver open interest.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.64% ((JAN 13/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.41% to NAV (JAN 10/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.64%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.41 TRADING 14.90///DISCOUNT  3,38

 

END

 

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JAN 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.6 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.80 TODAY:NA HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.69 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.12 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 9.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 A GOOD INVENTORY PAPER DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.18 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP #15.40 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $24.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONES INTO THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30

JAN 2/2020//WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $4.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25 TONNES

DEC 30//WITH GOLD UP $2.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.10 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.51 PAPER TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.86 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $14.60//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.64 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.56 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.66 TONNES

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: 1 SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.22 TONNES

DEC 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 13/ WITH GOLD UP $8.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 10//WITH GOLD UP $3.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $.60: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.34 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 5/2019: WITH GOLD UP $3.60 TODAY: A  SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 4/2019/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

 

DEC 2 /WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

 

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JAN 13/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 874.52 tonnes

*IN LAST 742 TRADING DAYS: 62.93 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 642 TRADING DAYS: A NET 104.12. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JAN 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.261 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ//

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.268 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ///

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ//

JAN 7.//WITH SILVER UP 23  CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ..

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440 MILLION OZ///

JAN 3/2020//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440  MILLION OZ///

SINCE DEC 23 WE HAVE HAD A 94 CENT GAIN CORRESPONDING TO A 2.39 MILLION OZ OF PAPER WITHDRAWALS..AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

JAN 2/2020/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.616 MILLION OZ

DEC 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 30/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ

DEC  26//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 24/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ///

 

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.028 MILLION PAPER OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 17//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 747,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ/?

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13//WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 10//WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:  A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.495 MILLION OZ//// INVENTORY RESTS  AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.869 MILLION OZ FROM SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.100 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 5//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 3//WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.512 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ..

DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

 

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

 

 

JAN 13.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

355.697 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.84/ and libor 6 month duration 1.87

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .03

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.85%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.97

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.12

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Wealthy Investors Are Buying Gold Coins and Bars and Storing Them In Secure Bunkers

CNN and Goldman Sachs via Russia Today

The strategic case for owning gold remains strong, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. They point to such factors as political uncertainty, recession fears and other worries among the global elite.

RT

Data from Goldman research showed that owning the physical metal seems to be the global elite’s preferred way to hedge against tail events. Physical buying of gold has increased at a rapid pace in the past three years, statistics showed.

“Since the end of 2016 the implied build in non-transparent gold investment has been much larger than the build in visible gold ETFs (Exchange-traded funds),” Goldman said in a note sent to clients and seen by Yahoo Finance.

That simply means that for those including gold in their luxurious bunkers, demand for which has been growing at a fast pace, owning bullion is a must.

“This [data] is consistent with reports that vault demand globally is surging,” Goldman said.

Gary Lynch, general manager of Texas-based Rising S Company, told CNN that 2016 sales for their custom high-end underground bunkers grew 700 percent compared to 2015, while overall sales have grown 300 percent since the November US presidential election alone.

“Political risks, in our view, help explain this, because if an individual is trying to minimize the risks of sanctions or wealth taxes, then buying physical gold bars and storing them in a vault – where it is more difficult for governments to reach them – makes sense.”

The investment bank added: “Finally, this build can also reflect hedges by global high net worth individuals against tail economic and political risk scenarios in which they do not want to have any financial entity intermediating their gold positions due to the counter-party credit risk involved.”

via Russia Today

Editors note: Owning gold bars in a private bunker in the ground has its own set of risks. For investors and even high net worth (HNW) and ultra high net worth investors (UHNW), to hedge worst case scenarios, it makes sense to take delivery and possession of a small amount of gold bullion.

However, owning gold coins and bars in our Secure Storage program is more prudent, given the nature of ownership, the competitive pricing and all important liquidity, the safer and safest jurisdictions and the state of the art vaults with the world’s leading vaulting companies as provided by GoldCore.com

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)
10-Jan-20 1548.80 1553.60, 1185.45 1189.28 & 1395.78 1399.64
09-Jan-20 1547.85 1550.75, 1186.89 1188.49 & 1393.99 1396.14
08-Jan-20 1582.85 1571.95, 1206.13 1197.35 & 1421.87 1412.87
07-Jan-20 1566.50 1567.85, 1190.85 1197.05 & 1402.80 1406.52
06-Jan-20 1576.85 1573.10, 1198.09 1197.29 & 1408.44 1406.51
03-Jan-20 1547.40 1548.75, 1182.37 1184.48 & 1389.57 1387.99
02-Jan-20 1520.55 1527.10, 1151.36 1161.51 & 1358.46 1366.91
31-Dec-19 1523.00,                1157.78 & 1358.06
30-Dec-19 1511.50 1514.75,  1152.37 1152.57 & 1350.22  1351.91

Is Your Gold and Silver Bullion S.A.F.E. ?
Segregated, Actionable, Flexible and what are the total Expenses?
Watch Our Latest Video Update Here

SIGN UP FOR OUR AWARD WINNING MARKET UPDATES HERE

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Interesting:  this new found gold bar shows that the stealing of gold has a very longhistory

(Reuters)

500-year-old gold bar shows that stealing gold has a long history

 Section: 

Gold Bar Found Beneath Mexico City Street Was Part of Moctezuma’s Treasure

From Reuters
Friday, January 10, 2020

MEXICO CITY — A new scientific analysis of a large gold bar found decades ago in downtown Mexico City reveals it was part of the plunder Spanish conquerors tried to carry away as they fled the Aztec capital after native warriors forced a hasty retreat.

Mexico’s National Institute of Anthropology and History announced the findings of new tests of the bar in a statement on Thursday, a few months before the 500-year anniversary of the battle that forced Hernan Cortes and his soldiers to temporarily flee the city on June 30, 1520.

… 

A day earlier Aztec Emperor Moctezuma was killed, or possibly assassinated, according to the native informants of one Spanish chronicler, which promoted a frenzied battle that forced Cortes, his fellow Spaniards, as well as their native allies to flee for their lives.

A year later Cortes would return and lay siege to the city, which was already weakened with supply lines cut and diseases introduced by the Spanish invaders taking a toll. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-archeology/gold-bar-found-bene…

* * *

Toast to a free gold market
with great GATA-label wine

Wine carrying the label of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, cases of which were awarded to three lucky donors in GATA’s recent fundraising campaign, are now available for purchase by the case from Fay J Winery LLC in Texarkana, Texas. Each case has 12 bottles and the cost is $240, which includes shipping via Federal Express.

Here’s what the bottles look like:

http://www.gata.org/files/GATA-4-wine-bottles.jpg

Buyers can compose their case by choosing as many as four varietals from the list here:

http://www.gata.org/files/FayJWineryVarietals.jpg

GATA will receive a commission on each case of GATA-label wine sold. So if you like wine and buy it anyway, why not buy it in a way that supports our work to achieve free and transparent markets in the monetary metals?

To order a case of GATA-label wine, please e-mail Fay J Winery at bagman1236@aol.com.

* * *

Join GATA here:

Mining Investment Asia
InterContinental Hotel, Singapore
Tuesday-Thursday, March 17-19, 2020
https://www.mininginvestmentasia.com/

Mines and Money Asia
Conrad Hotel, Hong Kong
Tuesday-Wednesday, March 31-April 1, 2020
https://asia.minesandmoney.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

Welcome to Jachymov, the first town to ever accept the dollar and now outlaws it

(BBC.GATA)

Welcome to Jachymov, the Czech town that invented the dollar

 Section: 

By Eliot Stein
British Broadcasting Co., London
Wednesday, January 8, 2020

http://www.bbc.com/travel/story/20200107-welcome-to-jchymov-the-czech-to…

The U.S. dollar is the most widely used currency in the world. It is both the primary de facto global tender and the world’s unofficial gold standard. According to the International Monetary Fund, 62% of the planet’s financial reserves are held in US dollars — more than double the total foreign holdings of euros, yen and renminbi combined.

Thirty-one nations have either adopted it as their official currency or named their money after it; more than 66 countries peg the value of their currencies to it; and it’s now accepted in places as far-flung as North Korea, Siberia and research stations on the North Pole.

Yet, one place where the dollar is not accepted is in the tiny Czech town of Jachymov ­- which is ironic, because it was here, tucked deep into the wooded folds of Bohemia’s Krušné hory mountains, where the dollar originated 500 years ago in January 1520. But as I pulled a George Washington one-dollar bill from my wallet in Jáchymov’s 16th-Century Royal Mint House museum, the very spot where the dollar’s earliest ancestors were coined, docent Jan Francovič smiled and stopped me.

“I haven’t seen one of these in a long time,” he said, calling over two colleagues. “In Jáchymov, we only accept koruna, euros or sometimes Russian rubles. You’re the first American to come here in more than three years.”

Welcome to Jáchymov: a sleepy 2,700-person town near the Czech-German border that’s both the home of the dollar and the home of no dollars. Chances are you’ve never heard of the place. You probably didn’t know that it was just named one of Unesco’s newest World Heritage sites. And you likely never realised that the currency that powers the free world originated in this one-road town still reeling from the collapse of communism that has more brothels than banks.

In fact, you could spend a day walking up and down Jáchymov’s main drag, past its abandoned Gothic and Renaissance buildings that tumble down the hill, around its opulent cluster of day spas at the base of the valley and up to its 16th-Century castle, and never realise it was the birthplace of the dollar.

“How could you? There are no signs advertising it anywhere — most people living here don’t even know!” said Michal Urban, director of the non-profit development Mountain Region Krušné hory — Erzgebirge and one of the authors of the region’s Unesco nomination, as he led me down a dark staircase and into the mint’s vaulted basement where the coins were assayed. “No other mining town in the world has had such a big influence as Jáchymov, but we’ve forgotten our history.”

Long before Jáchymov existed, the rolling mountains separating modern-day Bohemia and Saxony were ruled by wolves and bears who roamed its virgin forests. When vast quantities of silver were discovered in 1516, enterprising local nobleman Count Hieronymus Schlick christened the area Joachimsthal (“Joachim’s valley”) after Jesus’ grandfather, the local patron saint of miners.

“At the time, Europe was a continent of city-states with local rulers vying for power,” explained local historian Jaroslav Ochec. “With no standard monetary unit among them, one of the most effective ways rulers could assert their control was to mint their own currency, and that’s what Schlick did.”

The governing Bohemian Diet officially granted Schlick permission to mint his silver coins on 9 January 1520. The count stamped an image of Joachim on the front, the Bohemian lion on the back, and named his new currency “Joachimsthalers” — which soon became shortened to “thalers”.

In an age when the metal content of coins was the sole determinant of value, Schlick did two smart things to ensure the thalers’ spread and survival. First, he made the thaler the same weight and diameter as the 29.2g Guldengroschen coin used throughout much of central Europe, which made it easier for neighbouring kingdoms to accept it. More importantly, he minted more coins than the world had ever seen.

In just 10 years, Joachimsthal transformed from a 1,050-person hamlet to the largest mining centre in Europe — a bustling 18,000-person hub with 1,000 silver mines employing 8,000 miners. By 1533, Joachimsthal was the second-largest city in Bohemia after Prague, and by the mid-16th Century, Urban estimated that some 12 million thalers minted from these mountains had spread across Europe — far more than any other currency on the continent.

Joachimsthal’s silver deposits soon ran dry, but by 1566, the thaler was so well known across Europe that when the Holy Roman Empire sought to establish a standard size and silver content for the many local currencies in its kingdom, it chose the thaler, calling all acceptable silver coins “Reichsthalers” (“thalers of the empire”).

“For the next 300 years, many countries around the world modelled their money after the thaler,” Urban said, staring across Jáchymov’s rusted metal roofs towards the hulking white shaft of Europe’s oldest continuously operated mine and the Schlick castle, which both still loom over the town. “Soon, the thaler started to live a life of its own far from here.”

As rulers across Europe began remodelling their coins after the thaler, they also renamed them in their own languages. In Denmark, Norway and Sweden, the thaler became known as the “daler.” In Iceland, it was the “dalur.” Italy had the “tallero”, not to be confused with the “talar” (Poland), the “tàliro” (Greece) or the “tallér” (Hungary). In France, it was “jocandale,” and “before long, there were some 1,500 imitations circulating among the tiny, tightly packed statelets of the Holy Roman Empire,” writes Jason Goodwin in his book “Greenback: The Almighty Dollar and the Invention of America.”

The thaler soon spread to Africa, where it was used in Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique and Tanzania as late as the 1940s — and across much of the Arab Peninsula and into India, where it was still in circulation through the 20th Century. The official currency of Slovenia was the “tolar” until 2007. The money in Samoa is still called “tālā.” And the currencies in Romania (“leu”), Bulgaria (“lev”) and Moldovia (“leu”) today all take their names from the lion stamped on the first thaler 500 years ago.

But it was the Dutch leeuwendaler (“lion dollar,” or “daler” for short — pronounced nearly identically to the English “dollar”) that gave the US currency its name. After first arriving in New Amsterdam in the 17th Century with Dutch colonists, the dalers quickly spread throughout the Thirteen Colonies and English-speaking settlers began calling them — and all similarly weighted silver coins, including the widely used Spanish real de a ocho (“piece-of-eight”) coin — “dollars”. The dollar became the US’ official currency in 1792 and ever since, the thaler-inspired dollar has continued its march across the globe to places like Australia, Namibia, Singapore, and Fiji.

Yet, as Urban and Ochec led me out of the mint and past a barbed-wire fence holding a military lookout tower on a nearby hillside, I learned that the mines of Jáchymov also have a much darker claim to fame.

When the town’s shiny silver deposits dwindled, miners began to encounter a mysterious pitch-black substance that led to an alarmingly high incidence of fatal lung diseases. They called the uraninite mineral “Pechblende” (“pech” means “bad luck” in German). While sifting through the town’s mines in 1898, a physicist named Marie Curie identified that the same ore that had produced the first dollars contained two new radioactive elements: radium and polonium. The discovery disfigured Curie’s hands, eventually killed her and led her to become the first woman to win a Nobel Prize. But it also set the stage for the town’s unlikely second act: the same mines that coined the world’s currency would now power the nuclear arms race.

For the next several decades, the town’s reopened silver mines became the world’s foremost source of radium. The Nazis experimented with a nuclear reactor here. The “father of the atomic bomb,” J Robert Oppenheimer, wrote his thesis on Joachimsthal’s uranium-rich shafts. And after Czechoslovakia reclaimed Joachimsthal from Germany after World War II — renaming it Jáchymov and expelling the German-speaking population that had lived here for centuries with Czech settlers — the government signed a secret treaty with Stalin that turned the town into a Russian gulag.

“This began a very doomed period of our history,” said Urban, crunching through the woods along the newly opened 8.5km Jáchymov Hell trail that traces the valley’s development from silver mining hub to Soviet concentration camp. “Before the war, the people who lived here were very proud of creating the dollar. But when the population changed, this memory was lost and the mines became exploited to help Russia create the A-bomb.”

After Oppenheimer’s atomic bomb effectively ended World War Two, some 50,000 Soviet political prisoners were sent to Jáchymov between 1949 and 1964 to dig, crush and load uranium to fuel the USSR’s atomic arsenal. In fact, arguably the two most potent symbols of power in the modern world, the dollar and nuclear weapons, come from this quaint mining town in the Bohemian hills.

Today, Jáchymov is still grappling with its tumultuous past. The vast slagheaps that once scarred the valley are starting to be swallowed by evergreen trees. The rows of boarded-up 19th-Century homes built with toxic levels of uranium residue are slowly being gutted and restored to their former glory. And Jáchymov’s last operational mine, Svornost, which supplied silver for the very first dollars, now pumps radioactive water to a trio of eerie, lavish resorts advertising “radon-water therapy.”

There are still no signs anywhere in Jáchymov stating its rightful claim as the birthplace of the dollar. But if you head inside the town’s Royal Mint House museum and ask the docents to show you what’s new for this year’s quincentenary, they’ll proudly point behind the desk and show you a small frame holding a crisp new George Washington.

END

 

The market anticipates that JPMorgan and the boys will orchestrate a derivative raid on Bitcoin and knock the price down.

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Here comes another derivatives attack on Bitcoin

 Section: 

JPMorgan Sees ‘High Anticipation’ for CME Bitcoin Options Launch

By Joanna Ossinger
Bloomberg News
Friday, January 10, 2020

Institutional interest in Bitcoin-related contracts appears to be building and market measures indicate high anticipation of the launch of CME Group Inc. options on Monday, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

While a consortium known as Bakkt, which includes New York Stock Exchange parent Intercontinental Exchange Inc., began offering options last month, volumes and open interest have been “rather small,” strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note Jan. 10. Given the dominance of CME in trading Bitcoin futures on regulated exchanges, this new offering may change things, they said.

… 

“There has been a steep increase in the activity of the underlying CME futures contract” over the past few days, Panigirtzoglou wrote, noting that open interest has increased 69% from year-end, and that the number of large open-interest holders has grown. “This unusually strong activity over the past few days likely reflects the high anticipation among market participants of the option contract.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-11/jpmorgan-sees-high-an…

END

Our Indian citizens love gold because it never ever fails them

(the Mint/New Delhi/GATA)

Indians stick with gold because it never fails them in a pinch

 Section: 

Why Are Indians in the Grip of a Gold Obsession?

By Vivek Kaul
Mint, New Delhi, India
Sunday, January 12, 2020

https://www.livemint.com/market/commodities/why-are-indians-in-the-grip-…

The price of gold crossed 40,000 rupees per 10 grams last week. Since the beginning of this fiscal year, gold prices have surged by around 25%, driving down gold imports by a fifth during the same period. So Mint here takes a look at India’s love for gold.

By how much have gold imports reduced?

Between April and November, India imported 533,376 kilograms of gold, around 20.3% less than the 669,339 kilograms imported during the same period in 2018. This is hardly surprising since gold has turned costlier this fiscal year.

… 

Between April and November the average price of gold was 35,337 rupees per 10 grams, against 30,689 rupees during the same period a year ago. Since November prices have rallied higher due to Iran-U.S. tensions. Over and above this, the easy-money policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve have made a comeback. The Fed has resumed printing money to drive down interest rates. This has pushed up gold prices as well.

What explains the love Indians have for gold?

Since little gold is produced in India, almost all the metal used here is imported. Over the years Indians have continued to love gold. In FY19, India imported 983,000 kilograms of gold, the highest since FY14. A major reason for our love for gold remains tradition. But there is more to it.

As Richard Davies writes in “Extreme Economies,” “Gold also acts as a kind of informal insurance mechanism.” He writes this in the context of Aceh, a semi-autonomous province of Indonesia, and notes how survivors of the 2004 Asian tsunami rebuilt their lives using the gold they had on their bodies.

How did gold help in the aftermath of the tsunami?

As Davies writes: “While some lost gold in the disaster, I met many survivors who were able to sell jewellery they were wearing. … Wearing a gold bangle is like having enough cash on your wrist to employ a builder for a year. … This traditional form of finance insulated Aceh and provided its entrepreneurs with rapid access to cash.”

How is this linked to India’s love for gold?

As in Aceh, India also has a very strong informal system of exchange where gold can be rapidly turned into cash, especially in times of emergency. As Davies writes again in the context of Aceh: “In an economy buffeted by the ups and downs of farming and fishing, the people are used to buying gold after bumper harvests or fishing seasons and selling it after lean ones.” This applies as much to India as it does to Aceh, with the bulk of the country’s workforce still dependent on agriculture for a living.

What do economists make of this system?

Economists, especially those working in the West, are used to banks and a formal financial system being in place and working well, even during emergencies. Buying and holding on to gold doesn’t fit their way of doing things.

But as Davies puts it, “A woman’s gold is both her personal treasure and plays a functional role as the family’s financial buffer.” That is the long and the short of India’s love for gold.

—–

Vivek Kaul is an economist and the author of the “Easy Money” trilogy.

END

Rhodium is the most precious metal on earth.  Could the reason be for its record high price be that there is no futures market on it?

(Bloomberg/GATA)

The world’s most precious metal leaves everything else in the dust

 Section: 

Could it be because there’s no futures market to rig its price with?

* * *

By Elena Mazneva
Bloomberg News
Sunday, January 12, 2020

Palladium’s great start to the year pales in comparison to its lesser-known but much more expensive sister metal, rhodium.

Rhodium — mainly used in autocatalysts and five times more costly than gold — surged 32% already this month, touching the highest since 2008. Stricter emissions rules have fueled a multi-year rally and there’s speculation that investors are also jumping in, betting that prices will climb toward a record.

… 

Rhodium rallied 12-fold in the past four years, far outperforming all major commodities, on rising demand from the auto sector. Like palladium, the metal is mined as a byproduct of platinum and nickel, but it is a much smaller market and so is liable to big price moves when supply or demand change. …

It’s much harder to invest in rhodium than in other precious metals. It isn’t traded on exchanges, the market for bars or coins is tiny compared with gold or silver, and most deals are between suppliers and industrial users. Global production is equal to little more than a 10th of platinum or palladium output. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-13/most-precious-metal-r…

iii) Other physical stories:

A very important read from Brandon Smith as he outlines why we must procur gold to guard against the coming crash

(Brandon Smith/Alt Market.com)

Is This Why Central Banks Are Rushing To Buy Gold?

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

Gold has seen an impressive price spike in the past 18 months, and if you are wondering what the cause is, you’ll find almost everyone has a different theory. That said, certain factors in historic gold rallies tend to be ignored. For example, the mainstream financial media often hyper focuses on stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve as the cause, but I would remind people that the most recent upward trend in gold started while the Fed was tightening liquidity and raising interest rates, not stimulating. Also, many analysts suggest that precious metals absorb investment cash flows when equities are sliding, yet, for now, stocks have been rallying for the past year as gold prices also trend upward. So, what is the mainstream missing here?

First and foremost, it’s important to understand that gold is not necessarily just an inflation hedge; it is also a crisis hedge.As economic and geopolitical uncertainty grows, gold prices skyrocket. The past decade has seen uncertainty and instability that the world has not seen for almost a century. The problem is, the average American is oblivious to this state of affairs. They have no idea how bad the situation can get, as they assume there are checks and balances to counter any potential disaster in the financial structure. They assume that the government or the banks will step in.

 

However, there are signals that tell us that this will not be the case. In fact, it appears that central banks around the world are preparing for an event that they either cannot quantify yet or simply refuse to warn the public about. This is evident in the acceleration in gold stockpiling by banking institutions.

In 2018, foreign central banks bought levels of gold not seen since 2010. The past year of 2019, according to 3rd quarter figures, shows that banks bought even more; 12% more than in 2018. Last year, central banks purchased at least 550 tons of the “barbaric relic”, and it looks like they don’t plan to stop anytime soon.

Leading buyers have included Russia, China and Turkey, with the former two being the leading buyers for several years now. But central banks aren’t just buying gold, they are also demanding their gold storage be transferred away from offshore holdings and back to their own vaults.

Germany repatriated $31 billion (583 tons) in gold from Paris and New York vaults. Turkey repatriated 220 tons from the Federal Reserve. The Netherlands repatriated 122 tons. Poland repatriated 100 tons of gold from vaults in England. Both Hungary and Romania have announced plans to get their gold holdings back, and nationalists in Italy have demanded that Italy’s gold reserves be released by banks and returned to public control.

The bottom line is, there is a gold rush going on by central banks as well as governments, and the public is being left utterly out of the loop as to why.

I would suggest that it’s clear what is going on: They know that a global crisis is about to happen, and so they prepare as any smart investor would, by buying the one commodity that always goes up when the manure hits the fan and most other assets go down. But what is the nature of the crisis they are preparing for? Most likely, a geopolitical conflagration followed by a monetary crisis with the U.S. dollar at the epicenter.

Economic disasters do not generally happen in a vacuum. There are always geopolitical threats that trigger the collapse of financial bubbles, or, the threats are engineered to coincide with the bubble collapse in order to obscure the true culprits behind it. One way or another, it would appear that central banks are privy to a looming calamity that will result in a threat to the current monetary order. I suspect that this event will be preceded by a geopolitical conflict; a smokescreen or scapegoat that will take the blame for the disaster while the central banks that created the mess in the first place escape scrutiny.

The growing rift between the U.S. and other major trading partners, along with the increased danger of regional war with nations like Iran, are setting the stage for what I predict will end in the loss of the dollar’s world reserve status. Some people might see this as a good thing, but such a reset would leave the American economy in shambles for decades to come, as our economy acclimates to losing the single thread that was holding our system together. Rebuilding the system without dependency on reserve status or centralization would be nice, but that can only happen if the central bankers are removed from the equation and true free markets and price discovery are allowed to flourish.

As long as the banking elites remain in charge, our economy will never be healthy and will never recover from a major crash or monetary crisis.

Frankly, they don’t want us to recover anyway. If central banks intended to save the current system, then they would tell the public why they have been stockpiling gold and what the specific threat is that they are preparing for. They would be encouraging the public to buy gold and silver as well and find some financial independence and security.

I am often asked why globalists and international banks would seek to deliberately hide or instigate a global economic crash. Wouldn’t this threaten their base of power, the golden goose that they use to exploit vast amounts of capital and entire political systems?

My answer is simple but historically correct: The banking elites need crisis to consolidate power. They don’t lose power or financial influence during a fiscal panic, they gain power and influence. With each passing financial demolition, the public loses more and more hard assets. These assets are gobbled up and devoured by financial institutions, not because they have much use for all that private property, but because they don’t want YOU to have private property.

That is to say, the banks are machines designed to slowly (or sometimes quickly) siphon private property away from the public until private property is a memory. Once private property is gone, public survival depends on the “charity” of the state and its corporate partners. Without property, dependency metastasizes like a cancer.

Property is protected by hedging capital into defensive commodities, as well as by organized defiance of theft. During any major crisis there is always a window of time in which precious metals can be used to secure hard necessities while countering the loss of buying power common during inflation or stagflation. The longer you can remain solvent during crisis, the more influence you will have over the course of events. The more dependent or desperate you are during a crisis, the less use you will be to anyone.

The levels of central bank gold buying have increased so rapidly in the past two years, this suggests to me that whatever they are preparing for is about to occur very soon. With consumer and corporate debt at all-time highs, the recent liquidity crisis and repo market loan response from the Fed, along with the highly volatile tensions between the U.S. and Iran, I seriously doubt we will make through 2020 without a shock to the system.

Certain central banks have been positioned to benefit. Others, like the Fed, are decidedly unprepared as there is not much concrete proof that our own gold reserves exist. Looking at the bigger picture, the shift in gold holdings around the world shows us where the global elites plan to stash their cash while the U.S. takes a nosedive. These will be the regions most immune to a monetary wildfire.

While price fluctuations are always rampant in times like this, as I noted in July of last year, the overall trend for precious metals will be up from here on. And, unless you suddenly see central banks start dumping their gold reserves instead of buying hand over fist, then I suggest readers copy their strategy and get a stack of physical gold as well.

*  *  *

With global tensions spiking, thousands of Americans are moving their IRA or 401(k) into an IRA backed by physical gold. Now, thanks to a little-known IRS Tax Law, you can too. Learn how with a free info kit on gold from Birch Gold Group. It reveals how physical precious metals can protect your savings, and how to open a Gold IRA. Click here to get your free Info Kit on Gold.

end

J Johnson commentary discussing the silver/gold comex

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/01/13/silver-and-golds-open-interest-continues-higher-as-does-the-printing/

Silver and Golds Open Interest Continues Higher, As Does The Printing!

Posted January 13th, 2020 at 9:45 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,

      Gold is trading at $1,554.40, down $5.70 after being dipped to $1,547.00 with the starting point high at $1,563.10. Silver is down 8 cents at $18.025 after going below the Maginot line again hitting $17.940 before it recovered with the high at $18.130 which of course is the Sunday night opening price. The US Dollar, a continually printed product of bad math, is now valued at 97.165 up 8.7 points after being supported all the way up to 97.245 before losing steam with the low at 97.050. Of course, all of this occurred already during Asia and London’s trading times, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close, and after “death to liars” is being chanted in one nation specifically, which can be heard in many others as well, if one has the ears to hear and the eyes to see.

      Our Emerging Markets Currency Watch continues to show the control the primaries have over almost all other currencies with Venezuela’s Bolivar now pricing Gold at 15,450.66 showing a pullback of 32.96 from Friday’s trades with Silver at 180.025 Bolivar, giving back the exact amount taken during the previous days move. Argentina’s Peso now has Gold valued at 92,408.57, it too losing 165.12 in A-Peso value with Silver at 1,076.71 proving a 0.10 A-Peso gain. The Turkish Lira now has Gold priced at 9,066.72 showing a reduction of 42.57 in paper printed value as Silver holds on to its value with the price at 105.645, showing a gain of 0.326 in T-Lira Value.

       Comex Silver Delivery Demands now show 10 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts and with a Volume on 4 up on the board so far this morning, with a trading range of $18.02 and $17.97 with the last 2 of the 4 purchases at $18.02. Even though the count is small compared to the paper used to control the price flow, it shows the constant need for large bar supply. It also shows how little value Comex considers the delivery issue we have as last Friday’s Volume of 2 still shows no price. Also, of note Friday’s Demand Count was at 41 proving 31 contracts got settled out here or in London during Friday’s “no need to price a delivery purchase” day.

      Silver’s Overall Open Interest now posts a total of 234,460 Overnighters showing the short traders had to add another 218 more contracts into the market in order to keep the liquidity level, at a price the centrals demand against the buyers of physicals. Silver’s level of paper against the physicals remains elevated and consistent, and for years now. We’re not surprised that Gold’s Open Interest caught up as now both commodities are trading just below their life of paper contract highs. Silver’s All Time High in Paper is at 244,196 with Gold’s All Time High is at 797,110.

      This weekend’s weekly discussion with Jim and his team, inside the paid for side, added much more understanding to the events of the week. The team is discussing our present history in the making. Maybe even being the precursor to the greatest transfer of wealth in history. If one does not have the time to read or study over the week, the “paid for side” is one of the best purchases one can make. One can listen at any time on Sunday and at one’s leisure, or the discussion can be saved into a MP3 format to be listened to on the road on the way to work.

      REPO-mania is the event that was discussed and the question of why the western nations seem to hate Russia and China so much? “Because they are evil” doesn’t cut it anymore. That statement has been used for centuries now and still the questions surrounding their history have yet to be discussed. I think it would take an entire multi years long television series to go thru all of Russia’s written history, written by their own countrymen over the centuries allowed for everyone to read after their communism collapsed, and to compare their writings to those that wrote about them from western civilizations viewpoint. What else can be discovered that was not there before? It is apparent that Russia and China have an obsession with Silver and Gold, and it may have been always that way.

      Moving forward, first we witnessed Silver being pummeled with paper liquidity, then most recently Gold. However, since 2008 the Federal Reserve had to print, and continually do so ever since, Why? This is what is being discussed as it’s happening, live! Want to know more, consider getting into the paid side and be amazed!

     Keep your precious metals in hand, keep a smile on your face and a positive thought in the head no matter what, and as always …

Stay Strong!

  1. Johnson

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8947/ 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8921   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 23.28 POINTS OR 0.75%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 316.74 POINTS OR 1.11%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 110.70 POINTS OR 0.47%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.47/Euro RISES TO 1.1124

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.00/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.86/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 59.00 and Brent: 64.91

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.18%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.36% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.47%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.54: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.37

3k Gold at $1554.55 silver at: 18.01   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 9/100 in roubles/dollar) 61.111

3m oil into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.86 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9720 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0813 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.18%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.84% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.30%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8599..

Futures Jump On “Trade Optimism” As Phase 1 Deal Signing Looms

With the Fed’s liquidity deluge ongoing, stocks predictably are up on Monday and back to all time highs and since traders always need a “narrative” what better time to use the old standby “U.S. Stock-Index Futures Gain Amid Trade Optimism” (which is how Bloomberg “explained” the market action) especially since the signing of a Phase 1 China-U.S. trade deal is set for this Wednesday, even though markets have yet to see details of the agreement.

 

With December’s disappointing nonfarm payrolls report largely forgotten, half the Friday drop was erased overnight in very thin volume, and the S&P e-mini stock futures rose 0.31% to 3,274.8, just 10 points shy from reclaiming its all time high.

Ironically, Friday’s market reaction to the poor payrolls report was bizarre: as DB’s global FX strategy head Alan Ruskin said, “This is the perfect employment report for the Fed to continue to run the economy ‘hot’, as views on the natural rate of unemployment continue to drop,” adding “this is perfect for risky assets.”

MSCI’s All Country World Index was up 0.02%, also just short of a record high hit last week. After rising in early trade, European shares were last down 0.2% by midday. Germany’s DAX fell 0.3%, France’s CAC 40 gained 0.05% and Britain’s FTSE 100 added 0.19% amid speculation for rate cuts by the BOE. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index fell 0.22%.

In Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.64%, touching its highest level since June 2018. South Korea’s trade-sensitive Kospi added 1.04% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 1.11%, while Taiwan shares increased 0.74% in the first trading day after Taiwan re-elected President Tsai Ing-wen by a landslide on Saturday. Mainland Chinese shares lagged the regional index after China’s major equity indexes logged their sixth consecutive weekly rise last week, the longest such streak since the first quarter of 2019. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.8% in the afternoon, turning around from losses earlier in the session. Investors in China are looking ahead to trade and economic growth data due this week, which is expected to shed more light on early signs of economic improvement after the country logged its slowest pace of growth in nearly three decades in the third quarter. China’s fourth-quarter and 2019 full-year GDP figures, due on Friday, are also likely to draw scrutiny as investors look for signs that improvements seen in recent manufacturing surveys are reflected in broader growth and investment figures.

Japan’s Nikkei was closed for a holiday. It fell sharply early last week when Iran attacked bases hosting U.S. military in Iraq, only to rally almost a thousand points when the two countries stepped back from hostilities.

Trading in stocks, bonds and currencies was suspended in the Philippines because the Taal volcano to the south of the capital is belching out ash.

It wasn’t just Japan: tensions between the U.S. and Iran after the U.S. killing of a top Iranian general put investors on guard against risk last week, knocking global stocks off a record high set in the first trading week of the year. But with no further escalation in conflict and focus shifting toward this week’s trade deal, markets have rebounded.

“Last week there was a lot of focus on the conflict between Iran and the U.S. However, the ‘modest’ Iranian response to the killing of Suleimani and even some more conciliatory comments from Trump have taken the U.S.-Iran conflict more or less away from the financial agenda,” said Arne Rasmussen, chief analyst at Danske Bank in a note to clients.

And so, with optimism over a potential World War III surging, attention turned to Trade War I, where Reuters reported that China’s commitments in the Phase 1 trade deal with the United States were not changed during a lengthy translation process and will be released this week as the document is signed in Washington, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday.

“Even getting to this phase-one agreement, when we weren’t sure we would get here, really shows that there’s political will to de-escalate trade tensions between China and the U.S.,” Lucy Meagher, investment adviser at Evan’s & Partners Pty., told Bloomberg Television. “We expect that to be a positive.”

To be sure, the main event of the week will be the signing of the Phase 1 trade deal between the United States and China on Wednesday. The Trump administration has invited at least 200 people to the White House for the ceremony.

“A calmer geopolitical backdrop and the signing of the U.S.‑China Phase 1 agreement is, on balance, favorable for global growth,” said Joseph Capurso, an FX strategist at CBA. “However, the 86-page Phase 1 agreement has not yet been made public. There are doubts how comprehensive the deal is, and whether the Phase 1 agreement will be implemented in full by both governments.”

Yet while geopolitics simmers in the background, Trump tweeted his support for protesters in Iran angered at their country’s mistaken downing of a Ukrainian jet, which could potentially add to middle east instability. Additionally, earnings from some of the biggest U.S. companies are due, amid forecasts they will show the smallest growth in three years.

Elsewhere, Germany’s benchmark bund yield headed for its least negative closing level since May. The offshore yuan strengthened past 6.9 per dollar for the first time since July in both onshore and offshore markets, as the signing of a preliminary trade deal with the U.S. nears. The People’s Bank of China set its daily fixing at the strongest level since August, nearly matching estimates by analysts and traders. The dollar rose and Treasuries fell across the curve as the completion of the first trade deal nears. President Donald Trump has said the U.S. and China will sign the accord on Wednesday.

The euro was flat on Monday at 1.1121, up from a $1.1083 low on Friday. Support comes in around $1.1060, while the recent peak at $1.1239 marks stiff resistance. The dollar rose 0.14% against a basket of currencies, up to 97.488, well within the recent trading range of 96.355 to 97.817; it was firmer on the yen at 109.87 but faces tough resistance around 109.70 where rallies have repeatedly failed in the past couple of months according to Reuters. The pound slipped 0.86% to $1.2963 after Bank of England policymaker Gertjan Vlieghe said he will vote for a cut in interest rates later this month, barring an “imminent and significant” improvement in the growth data.

In commodities, oil prices were slightly firmer after suffering their first weekly loss since late November. Brent crude futures were down 0.25% at $64.82 a barrel, while U.S. crude fell 0.15% to $58.96 a barrel. Spot gold slipped 0.6% to $1,552.30 per ounce, having hit a seven-year top last week of $1,610.90 at the height of Iran-U.S. tensions.

Fed’s Rosengren and Bostic are set to speak, economic data include monthly budget statement. Shaw Communications is due to report

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 3,275.75
  • MXAP up 0.4% to 173.67
  • MXAPJ up 0.7% to 568.36
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 23,850.57
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,735.16
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 28,954.94
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,115.57
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 41,832.58
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 6,903.67
  • Kospi up 1% to 2,229.26
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 419.66
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.1 bps to -0.178%
  • Euro down 0.01% to $1.1120
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 5.7 bps to 1.151%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.5 bps to 0.466%
  • Brent Futures up 0.2% to $65.11/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.9% to $1,547.98
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 97.49

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Iran witnessed a second night of protests, some violent, after the governmentadmitted it had mistakenly downed a Ukrainian passenger jet
  • Riksbank Deputy Governor Per Jansson says his reservation against the rate hike in Dec. doesn’t necessarily mean he will advocate a cut if development ahead is in line with forecasts
  • The U.K. economy unexpectedly shrank ahead of the general election, casting doubt over whether there was any growth at all in the fourth quarter
  • Conditions boiled over as Iranians gathered for a second night of protests after the governmentadmitted it had mistakenly downed a Ukrainian passenger jet, triggering global outrage as well as internal dissent
  • Oil was steady after the biggest weekly drop since July as an easing of geopolitical tension in the Middle East turned attention back to a flood of new supply set to hit the market this year
  • Argentine President Alberto Fernandez said in an interview with local media that his administration aims to “resolve” how much external debt the country needed to repay by March 31
  • Troubles at aircraft maker Boeing could trim about half a point from U.S. GDP in 2020 but economic growth should still come in at about 2.5%, said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin
  • U.K. job postings fell by the most in a decade last year as Brexit uncertainty whipsawed business planning, according to a report from BD
  • Xi Jinping’s goal of bringing Taiwan under his control moved further out of his grasp as the island re-elected a president who has vowed to defend its sovereignty
  • Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have tumbled over his handling of Australia’s wildfire crisis, adding to pressure on his government to shift course on its climate change policies
  • The executive director of campaign group Human Rights Watch said Sunday that he was prevented from entering Hong Kong, where he intended to release a report critical of the Chinese government

Asian equity markets began the week somewhat mixed with the region indecisive and Japanese participants away for a national holiday, with this week’s US-China Phase 1 deal signing adding to the tentativeness. ASX 200 (-0.4%) suffered from broad losses across its sectors led by underperformance in energy and defensives, while Westpac recently estimated losses from the ongoing bushfires at AUD 5bln and a total impact to domestic GDP of between 0.2%-0.5%. The TAIEX (+0.7%) was lifted following a landslide victory by Taiwanese President Tsai and with several encouraging monthly revenue updates including Acer, Pegatron and TSMC. Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) and Hang Seng (+1.1%) were varied with early underperformance in the mainland after the PBoC once again refrained from open market operations and as the looming Phase 1 signing kept participants on the fence. Furthermore, the sides were said to have agreed to launch a new semi-annual dialogue mechanism, although not also was rosy with the US to drop its civilian drone programme amid security concerns regarding Chinese tech and with officials to visit the UK in which they are expected to pressure the UK against the use of Huawei equipment.

Top Asian News

  • New SARS-Like Virus Found in Traveler From China, Thailand Says
  • Blackstone Is Said to Near Deal to Buy Allcargo’s Unit Stake
  • Trump Trade Deal Raises Issue of Trusting China to Deliver
  • ‘Digital Currency for Cadres’ Is China’s Latest How-To Book Hit

A tentative start to the week for European equities thus far [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%], following on from a similarly mixed APAC session ahead of the looming US-China Phase One deal signing. UK’s FTSE 100 [+0.5%] outperforms its regional peers as a weaker GBP bolsters exporters in the index following further dovish comments from BoE MPC members – this time Vlieghe – in the run up to the Jan 30th BoE confab; as well as UK today’s poor UK GDP numbers. Sectors are relatively mixed with no clear under/outperform in a reflection of the broad overall sentiment. The tech sector [+0.6%] outperforms with some tailwind heading into the Phase One deal signing as US business executives suggest the deal shows some advances on some sticking points such as intellectual property protection, significant agricultural purchases and recued export barriers. In terms of individual movers, UCB (+3.1%) remains one of the winners in the Stoxx 600 after the Co. upgraded its FY19 core EPS and revenue outlooks. Wirecard (+1.7%) is the top gainer in the DAX after Chairman Matthais and the supervisory board chairman stepped down. On the other end of the spectrum, Renault (-3.8%) shares fell to the foot of the pan-European index amid reports that Senior Nissan executives have stepped up the contingency planning regarding a possible split from Renault.

Top European News

  • Pound Falls After Vlieghe Joins BOE Chorus on Potential Rate Cut
  • Aston Martin Said to Hold Funding Talks With Stroll, Geely
  • Norway’s Arctic Oil Vision Suffers Another Blow From Lundin
  • New German Coal Plant Could Threaten Merkel’s Final Climate Push

In FX, the Pound was already under pressure and underperforming G10 peers after BoE’s Vlieghe joined the growing ranks of dovish MPC members by signalling his leaning towards a rate cut as soon as this month barring an imminent and significant pick-up in UK growth. However, November GDP fell 0.3% m/m vs the flat consensus to lift January and 2020 easing expectations and push Sterling down further through 1.3000 vs the Dollar and through 0.8570 against the Euro, with the former testing December 27 lows circa 1.2970 and latter approaching Xmas Eve peaks after breaching the 55 DMA (0.8534) and 0.8550.

  • JPY – The next weakest major link, as stops set around mid and early December highs were tripped to leave the Yen eyeing lows not seen since May 30 last year (109.93) ahead of big 110.00 barriers and technically bearish having fallen below the 200 WMA (109.70). From a fundamental perspective, broadly risk on sentiment awaiting the signing of US-China trade pact Phase 1 and no further US-Iran hostilities has prompted Jpy selling, while Usd/CNH has continued its downtrend to multi-month lows under 6.9000.
  • AUD/EUR/NZD/CHF/CAD – All narrowly mixed vs the Greenback, as the DXY regains more composure off post-NFP lows within a 97.327-535 range, albeit partly on the aforementioned Pound and Yen depreciation. Aud/Usd is pivoting 0.6900, Eur/Usd is hovering above 1.1100 flanked by hefty options (1.6 bn between 1.1095-1.1100 and the same size from 1.1120-40), Nzd/Usd is meandering within 0.6625-52 parameters in the run up to NZIER confidence and building consensts, Usd/Chf is sitting tight in a 0.9723-36 band and Usd/Cad is equally restrained between 1.3046-67 ahead of Canada’s LEI and the BoC’s outlook survey.
  • SCANDI/EM – The Norwegian Krona has weakened further alongside oil prices and from a chart perspective as Eur/Nok trades above the 200 DMA to 9.9100+ at one stage, while its Swedish counterpart is also on the back foot close to 10.5900 in wake of comments from Riksbank’s Jansson reiterating his opposition to December’s 25 bp repo hike. However, the Turkish Lira is consolidating recovery gains vs the Buck through 5.9000 even though the current account balance swung into arrears in November and the CBRT is widely forecast to ease again this week, with the Try still cheering cheaper crude costs and the overall appetite for risk noted above.

Commodities are largely mixed with WTI and Brent front-month futures choppy but ultimately flat in intraday trade, following last week’s vehement price action amid the heating and then cooling of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Over the weekend, focus somewhat shifted from the US/Iran conflict after Iran admitted it unintentionally shot down the Ukrainian Boeing 737-800 – which prompted mass protests in Tehran. WTI futures oscillate on either side of USD 59.0/bbl having already dipped below its 50 DMA at USD 58.81/bbl. Meanwhile, Brent Mar’20 contracts fell below the USD 65/bbl level and briefly dipped below Friday’s low of USD 64.88/bbl ahead of the current 2020 low-print at USD 64.58/bbl. SocGen notes that if the 200DMA (~USD 64.30/bbl) fails to hold, then oil will be put in ranges seen last September- after Saudi managed to put production back online surprisingly quickly after the attacks on Aramco facilities. Elsewhere, spot gold continues to trickle lower and prices temporarily lost the USD 1550/oz psychological figure amid a firmer Buck. Technicians will be eyeing USD 1540/oz for support marks the current YTD low. The firmer Dollar also provoked copper prices, which eased from highs north of USD 2.81/lb+ back to ~USD 2.80/lb – with the red metal on standby for the US-Sino deal signing later this week.

US Event Calendar

  • 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $15.0b deficit, prior $13.5b deficit

Central Banks

 

  • 10am: Boston Fed’s Rosengren Discusses Economic Outlook
  • 12:40pm: Fed’s Bostic Discusses Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I will be in Davos next week at the annual World Economic Forum. I’m still hopeful that Bono will want to come to one of my presentations one year on the off chance that he still hasn’t found what he’s looking for. With or without Bono, today’s new piece will be the basis of our conversations in Davos and is on the subject of growth. The general premise is that economic growth has been a wonderful game changing development for humans but only started with the first industrial revolution (c.250 years ago). Health, life expectancy, poverty etc. hardly improved for centuries before this and only saw huge improvements once the second industrial revolution (c.100 years later) changed sanitation and medicine forever. So the last 100-150 years has seen a rate of progress like nothing in history for the human race. The development has been near exponential since. However the side effects of this has been increasingly seen over the last few decades in terms of debt, regional inequality and most importantly the climate. The climate gets special focus in the note and we conclude that while the awareness of human’s impact on the environment has reached a tipping point, we feel that there is limited appreciation of the economic and personal trade-offs and sacrifices that will be needed if we want to seriously limit global warming. Will human’s sacrifice economic growth and even human development to halt environmental damage? That will probably be the question of our age but we shouldn’t lose stock of the uncomfortable truth that polluting growth has been essential for human progress after centuries (perhaps longer) of it going nowhere. Without it none of us would be here.

As discussed the first and last question in this month’s survey (link here) ) is related to climate change and asks how much economic growth you would be prepared to give up to help the environment and at the end asks whether you’ve changed your behaviour in a number of activities to limit the damage. It’s totally anonymous so feel free to be honest. Alongside this there are the usual market related questions. Results will be published on Thursday morning. We’d be grateful to get as many replies as possible before we close it at 5pm Wednesday. You only have to answer the questions you want and can skip any you don’t. Last month’s results are here.

The main highlights for the week ahead will be the signing of the Phase One trade deal between the US and China (Wednesday). US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said over the weekend that an English-language version of the agreement will be released this week. It’s quite remarkable that we still don’t know much in the way of details so eyes will be on this. We’ll also see the start of US earnings season with a number of banks reporting. On Tuesday we’ll hear from JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Then on Wednesday we’ll get Bank of America, UnitedHealth Group, Goldman Sachs, US Bancorp and BlackRock. Finally on Thursday, we’ll hear from Morgan Stanley and BNY Mellon. In terms of data CPI (Tuesday), retail sales (Thursday), and consumer confidence (Friday) are the main highlights in the US. In China we have trade data (Tuesday) and Q4 GDP/retail sales/industrial production (Friday). So we’ll have quite a good idea about momentum in the Chinese economy by the end of the week. In Europe industrial production numbers (Tuesday), and the flash CPI (Friday) are the highlights. The UK also sees CPI (Wednesday) and retail sales (Friday).

In terms of central banks over the coming week, publications to watch for include the Beige Book from the Fed on Wednesday, and then the ECB’s monetary policy account of its December meeting (and Christine Lagarde’s first as ECB President) on Thursday.

Over to politics now, and there’s a number of upcoming events this week. In the US, it’s the last Democratic primary debate on Tuesday before primary voting kicks off in February. Former Vice President Biden is currently ahead in the national polling according to the average on RealClear Politics. However, the polls in the first two states to vote in February, Iowa and New Hampshire, are much tighter, with the RealClear Politics average putting the 3 top candidates in Iowa between 20% and 22%, so it’s a tight race going into the caucuses there on 3rd February.

A Des Moines Register/Mediacom/CNN poll out from Iowa (the first state to vote) put Senator Bernie Sanders in first place on 20%, a 5-point jump for Sanders since their last poll in November. Elizabeth Warren was in 2nd place on 17%, while Pete Buttigieg was on 16%, and Joe Biden on 15%. As discussed above, nationally Biden remains the frontrunner, but the big question will be whether he can maintain his momentum were he not to win either of the first 2 states. Given how quickly Warren’s support has fallen, and also the impressive rally in Sanders’s ratings over a relatively short period of time, its clear that it remains all to play for in this race.

A quick refresh of our screens this morning shows that most Asian markets are trading higher with the Hang Seng (+0.82%), Shanghai Comp (+0.30%) and Kospi (+0.87%) all making advances. Japan’s markets are closed for a holiday. As for Fx, the Chinese onshore yuan is up +0.293% to 6.8990, the highest since July, ahead of the signing of the Phase 1 deal. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.28%.

In weekend news the Financial Times reported that the BoE’s Gertjan Vlieghe said that he will vote for an interest-rate cut from 0.75% to 0.5% this month if there are no signs of the economy improving after the general election. He said, “I really need to see an imminent and significant improvement in the U.K. data to justify waiting a little bit longer.” His comments echo those from the BoE Governor Carney made earlier in the past week while, the MPC member Silvana Tenreyro has also said that she may support an interest-rate cut in the next few months if sluggish global growth and Brexit uncertainty persist. Meanwhile, the FT also reported overnight that the CBI has urged the UK government to include businesses in the UK’s post-Brexit trade talks with the EU and US.

Turning to geopolitics, Iran has faced significant internal protests over the weekend after the Iranian government admitted that it had mistakenly downed the Ukrainian jet last week.

Recapping last week now, and the theme was very much the return of investor risk appetite, thanks to declining tensions between the US and Iran. Brent Crude was down -5.28% last week (-0.60% Friday) to just below $65/barrel, putting it clearly below the pre-US strike price. Meanwhile US equities were just shy of record highs, thanks to a slight pullback on Friday following the jobs report (more on that below). The S&P 500 ended the week +0.94% (-0.29% Friday), while the STOXX 600 also advanced +0.19% (-0.12% Friday). Volatility was also down, with the Vix index -1.46pts last week (+0.02pts Friday). Investors continued to move out of safe havens, with the Japanese Yen ending the week -1.24% (+0.06% Friday) against the US dollar, while sovereign debt also sold off, with 10yr Treasury yields +3.1bps (-3.4bps Friday) and 10yr bunds +7.9bps (-2.0ps Friday).

Looking at the jobs report, the headline numbers were a little below expectations, as nonfarm payrolls grew by +145k in December (vs. +160k expected), though there was a downward revision of -14k to the prior 2 months. The unemployment rate remained at 3.5%, in line with expectations and remaining at its joint lowest level since 1969. The more negative news for the economy (but positive for carry) came from average hourly earnings growth, which rose by +2.9% (vs. +3.1% expected), the first time it’s fallen below 3% since July 2018. That said, in somewhat brighter news, the broader U6 measure that also includes the underemployed and those marginally attached to the labour force fell to 6.7%, its lowest level since the data series began in 1994. From the Fed’s perspective, the report could be taken as a sign that there’s still slack in the labour market, particularly with the declines in U6 and wage growth falling back somewhat.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23.28 POINTS OR 0.75%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 316.74 131.51 POINTS OR 1.11%   /The Nikkei closed UP 110.70 POINTS OR 0.47%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .31%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8947 /Oil UP TO 59.10 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.91 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8947 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8921 TRADE TALKS STALL////TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

Taiwan

Taiwan’s Pro Independence President Tsai wins reelection and a shocking rebuke to Beijing that wants to unify Taiwan with Mainland China

(zerohedge)

In Shocking Rebuke To Beijing, Taiwan’s Pro-Independence President Wins Landslide Re-election

All of that paranoia about Beijing’s meddling in the Taiwanese federal election was apparently for nought. Because Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has officially secured re-election to a second term in office, sending a clear signal to the mainland that voters have endorsed her confrontational approach to dealing with Beijing.

Tsai caught the world’s attention last January when she rebuffed President Xi’s remarks about plans to “re-unify” Taiwan and China by insisting that the Taiwanese people would never willingly accept reunification with Beijing. She also insisted that the threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan was “growing every day.”

Taiwan’s president triumphed over two challengers in Saturday’s election: Han Kuo-yu of the rival Kuomintang, the party of Taiwan’s founder, Nationalist General Chang Kai Shek, and James Soong of the smaller People First Party, according to final vote tallies seen by the Associated Press.

 

Han, the KMT candidate, was said to run a “Trump-like” campaign seeking to capitalize on populist anger.

By winning reelection, Tsai as dealt a serious blow to the Kuomintang, which had ruled over Taiwan for most of its history as a quasi-nation independent of the mainland. Han, the KMT candidate, had pushed for friendlier ties with Beijing.

President Tsai casting her vote

President Xi and his fellow Communist leaders have taken an especially hard line against Tsai since her 2016 inauguration. Her refusal to endorse China’s claim that Taiwan is merely a renegade province have infuriated them, prompting Xi to suggest that the mainland could coerce Taiwan’s reunification by force if necessary.

Though, to be sure, the US has a treaty with Taiwan promising aid should such an invasion occur. Beijing has warned foreign powers that if they interfere in its relationship with Taiwan, they, too, will face Beijing’s wrath.

Tsai didn’t just win the election – by taking home nearly 58% of the vote, she waxed both of her opponents in a “landslide” victory.

Dimon Liu@liu_dimon

TAIWAN election results.

View image on Twitter

Hilde De Weerdt@hild_de

Big win for President @iingwen & DPP in – interactive election results: https://international.thenewslens.com/interactive/126882 

View image on Twitter

It’s the latest rebuke to Beijing during a period when Hong Kong, the formerly British colony that’s now a Special Autonomous Region of the PRC, is still being rocked by pro-democracy street protests. If anything, the results of Taiwan’s election will encourage the protesters to reach out to others who believe they’re being oppressed by the Communist leaders in Beijing.

The outcome for Tsai’s Party in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan is also critical for Tsai, who could find herself hamstrung by the opposition if her DPP doesn’t win enough support. There are 113 seats in the Legislative Yuan, of which 73 will be filled by winners in their districts, while another 34 are awarded proportionately to “at-large” candidates put forward by each part. Another six seats are reserved for indigenous candidates, according to the Washington Post.

Fortunately, initial results suggest her party will retain its majority.

 

Andrew Peng@TheAPJournalist

Tsai Ing-wen lays out the DPP’s top priorities for the next 4 years.

Embedded video

Andrew Peng@TheAPJournalist

Another big win for Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-wen: the DPP appears to be on track to retain its majority in the Legislative Yuan.

The last round of polls before the vote showed Tsai with a commanding lead, with some showed her winning by as much as a 30 percentage-point margin. More than 19 million people were eligible to vote on Saturday, including 1.2 million 20 to 23-year-olds who were eligible to vote for the first time.

Natasha Kassam, an Australian diplomat who’s now with the Lowy Institute in Sydney, told WaPo that Taiwan’s vote could be the most consequential election of 2020.

“Not only is Taiwan a proxy for much of the world’s strategy to deal with the consequences of an increasingly authoritarian China, but also Taiwan has been on the front lines of the Chinese Communist Party’s aggression for decades,” she said. “And while it is trying to safeguard its democratic institutions, it’s also trying to manage its economic relations with China.”

Since Han asked his supporters not to cooperate with pollsters, uncertainty surrounding the polls led to frenzied get-out-the-vote effort by all parties. Local media featured footage of long lines of people waiting, including one where Tsai’s predecessor as president, Ma Ying-jeou, waited for 30 minutes. And since there’s no absentee voting in Taiwan, Taiwanese living abroad returned in droves to cast their ballots.

end

 

This is a long commentary but very important as this Chinese spy outlines what China is doing to various dissidents

(the age.com)

 

CHINESE SPY OFFERS INFORMATION TROVE TO AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT..SEEKS ASYLUM
(the age.com )
end
CHINA/HSBC HUAWEI
Oh OH! this does not look good:  HSBC has now accused Huawei’s Meng of defrauding the bank into loaning billions as they misrepresentation their position holdings in Iran. HSBC is providing a amicus courtae to the court trying to stop her release from Canada
(Ian Young)
SCMP

Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou defrauded HSBC into loaning billions with ‘misrepresentations’ about Iran, Canada says, telling court to reject her bid for release

Ian Young

Vancouver

  • HSBC only continued to do business with Huawei because of Meng’s claims that the firm had cut ties with Skycom, a company operating in Iran, lawyers say
  • The government lawyers say the fraud charge satisfies a requirement of ‘double criminality’ for her to be extradited to the US

Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou’s request for the dismissal of the US extradition case against her must be rejected because her alleged offence was not breaking US sanctions on Iran, but defrauding HSBC, Canada’s attorney general said on Friday.

Meng’s lawyers had argued that she should be discharged because the US case was based on alleged breaches of American sanctions on Iran, which are not crimes in Canada. This failed the extradition requirement of “double criminality” under which an extraditable offence must represent a crime in Canada, as well as the requesting state, they claimed.

But in a submission released on Friday, the Canadian government lawyers representing US interests in the extradition case said “the essence of the Applicant’s offending conduct is fraud, not violating sanctions”.

The bank had taken part in billions of dollars of loans to Huawei because Meng allegedly had deceived the bank about its activities in Iran, they said.

Meng Wanzhou leaves her home in Vancouver for a court appearance in October, wearing an electronic ankle tag. Photo: Bloomberg
Meng Wanzhou leaves her home in Vancouver for a court appearance in October, wearing an electronic ankle tag. Photo: Bloomberg

“[Meng’s] misrepresentations put HSBC’s economic interests at risk by preventing the bank from accurately assessing the risks of maintaining a business relationship with Huawei,” said the attorney general’s lawyers, referring to a 2013 meeting in Hong Kong at which Meng told HSBC that Huawei had cut ties with Skycom, a company operating in Iran.

This was intended to reassure the bank that it was not in breach of US sanctions on Iran by doing business with the Chinese telecoms giant, the lawyers said.

Relying on Meng’s assurance, the bank continued to do business with Huawei, the Canadian lawyers said. But “had HSBC known of Huawei’s activities that breached American sanctions against Iran, HSBC would have re-evaluated its relationship”, they said, and “as a result of [Meng’s] misrepresentations about the Huawei/Skycom relationship, HSBC risked fines and penalties”.

Meng Wanzhou wins Canada court fight to see documents related to arrest
11 Dec 2019

Nevertheless, “this case is not about sanctions against Iran”, and the fraud case could be established without reference to the US sanctions regime, they said.

Meng was arrested on December 1, 2018, on a flight stopover in Vancouver, where she remains ahead of her formal extradition hearings.

The submission by the attorney general’s lawyers said that based on Meng’s assurances, HSBC had negotiated a US$900 million credit facility for Huawei in 2014, and took part in a syndicate that loaned US$1.5 billion to Huawei in 2015.

Huawei launches new legal action against FCC’s rural carrier purchase ban

“The fact that HSBC may have suffered no financial loss is legally irrelevant,” the lawyers said, adding that her “alleged dishonest act induced HSBC to continue to provide financial services when otherwise it would not have done so”.

“At the very least HSBC was denied the opportunity to make a decision about its economic risk based on an appreciation of material facts,” they said.

The submission described how HSBC had already been hit with US$1.7 billion in forfeitures and penalties in 2012 as a result of its violation of US sanctions on Iran, Cuba, Libya, Sudan and Myanmar.

As part of a deferred prosecution agreement with the US, HSBC would have been subject to criminal charges if it was caught breaking US sanctions again.

Meng Wanzhou fears cameras in court would trigger Trump ‘threats’
30 Nov 2019

It was only because of Meng’s alleged misrepresentations at the 2013 Hong Kong meeting that HSBC retained Huawei as a client, the submission said.

After months of preliminary hearings, Meng’s formal extradition hearing is expected to begin in the British Columbia Supreme Court in Vancouver on January 20, with appearances pencilled in to continue as late as November.

Her detention has been at the centre of escalating tensions between China and the West, amid a trade war with the US and intense debate about whether to allow Huawei to participate in high-speed 5G internet networks around the world.

Canada-China relations are at an all-time low, after China arrested Canadians Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor 13 months ago. They are accused by Beijing of espionage, but the arrests are widely seen in Canada as reprisals for Meng’s arrest.

end

CHINA

Internally China is not doing too good:  Car sales plunge by a huge 7.5% in 2019 and a whopping 3.6% in December

(zerohedge)

China Car Sales Plunge 7.5% In 2019 And 3.6% For December, Marking The 18th Fall In 19 Months

Passenger car vehicle sales in China fell yet again in December, plunging 3.6% to 2.17 million units, according to the China Passenger Car Association.

This marks the 18th drop in the past 19 months for the country, which feels to be single-handedly spearheading a global recession in the industry. For the full year, sales in China declined 7.5%, marking the second straight annual decline. 

 

Automakers continue to struggle with a slowing economy and tariff uncertainties, despite “Phase 1” of the U.S./China trade deal supposedly being finished (even though it still has not been signed), according to Bloomberg.

GM said on Tuesday that its sales were down 15% in China and said that pressure into 2020 would likely continue.

But, some analysts say there’s reasons for optimism: namely, that the pace of declines has slowed for four months in a row as comps have become easier. This will only hold true heading into 2020, where 2019’s comps will be much easier to catch than those of years prior, while the auto market was booming.

The China Association of Auto Manufacturers predicts that vehicle sales will drop 2% in 2020, marking a third straight annual decline. Sales fell 7.5% in 2019 and 6% in 2018.

Well, if that’s what you want to call progress…

Cui Dongshu, the CPCA’s secretary general told the South China Morning Post: “For 2020, the market is expected to get off to a slow start as the downward momentum continues. But sales will shoot up from the middle of 2020 amid the release of pent-up demand. After all, the number of licensed drivers is increasing and new drivers will eventually buy cars.”

Global automakers have invested billions in China over the last few decades, but are all now reconsidering expansion plans in the area. For instance, Peugeot maker PSA Group is selling its 50% stake in a JV it has to make cars in China.

Meanwhile, local Chinese manufacturers are also feeling pain. BYD Co. posted an 11% drop in 2019 sales and SAIC Motor reported a “similar decline”.

 

To make matters worse, Beijing slashed subsidies on EVs and NEVs this year – as we noted in the beginning of December – causing a huge dent in sales of plug-in vehicles. NEV sales plunged 42% in November.

Yet some analysts insist that progress will be made in the new year.

“Environment-friendly cars would return to positive territory this year,” analysts talking to the SCMP said.

As for us? We have been around “analysts” long enough to confidently say we’ll believe it when we see it. 

END

CHINA/USA

The phase one part of trade deal stops the bleeding but does not resolve the trade war, warns the uSA Chamber of Commerce

(zerohedge)

Phase 1 Trade Deal “Stops Bleeding,” Does Not Resolve Trade War, Says US Chamber Of Commerce 

 

 

President Trump is expected to sign a Phase 1 trade agreement with China this week that “stops the bleeding” but is no resolution to the trade war, a senior U.S. Chamber of Commerce official said on Monday, quoted by Reuters.

Vincent Lee

@Rover829

Reuters: The Phase 1 trade deal to be signed this week by China and the United States “stops the bleeding” but does not end the trade war, a senior U.S. Chamber of Commerce official said on Monday, warning that significant challenges remain.

Vincent Lee

@Rover829

Reuters: Myron Brilliant, the chamber’s Executive Vice President, told a media briefings in the Chinese capital that there is “clearly a sigh of relief from both sides” with the agreement and that the depth of the Phase 1 was more positive than initially thought.

Myron Brilliant, the chamber’s Executive Vice President, told reporters at a press conference in Beijing on Monday that there are significant challenges ahead, and a temporary trade agreement is “clearly a sigh of relief from both sides.”

“Implementation of Phase 1 will be important to building trust and certainty, building off the success of the negotiation,” said Brilliant, who said the deal could be signed as soon as Wednesday.

As Phase 1 “stops the bleeding”, he said. “at the same time, it’s important that the two sides demonstrate a commitment to moving forward on the Phase 2 negotiations”.

Brilliant warned that “significant challenges” remain ahead-considering structural issues at the heart of the trade war are unresolved.

Brilliant said he’s been briefed on the text of the trade deal but hasn’t been allowed to view it.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Fox News on Sunday that China’s commitments on agriculture products haven’t changed during the translation process, and he said the text of the trade deal could be released this week.

Mnuchin said China is expected to buy $40 billion to $50 billion worth of U.S. farm goods per year and total around $200 billion in two years.

China hasn’t publicly made any commitments to the U.S. demands – as we’ve mentioned, hard commitments could be a difficult target for China to meet.

The Global Times said Sunday that the upcoming trade deal between the U.S. and China would cover agriculture purchases to intellectual property rights (IPR) to enforcement mechanisms.

Chinese officials have said the Phase 1 agreement will include nine chapters, including sections on IPR, technology transfers, food and agricultural products, financial services, foreign exchange rates, transparency, and two-way assessment.

A source told the Global Times that “balance is a highlight of the phase one deal.” “You will see what I mean by this when you see the final text of the agreement,” the source said.

The Phase 1 trade deal is optically pleasing for President Trump during an election year and could further be a catalyst for higher stock market prices. However, the deal hasn’t been made public and there are doubts about how comprehensive the deal is. There’s also concern whether the agreement will be implemented in full by both countries. A full resolution of the trade war could take years.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN// DOWNED UKRAINIAN JET/SATURDAY

Iran on Saturday admits that it accidentally shot down that Ukrainian Passenge jet

(zerohedge)

In Stunning Reversal, Iran Admits Accidentally Shooting Down Ukrainian Passenger Jet

After multiple denials, and demands for proof from foreign entities – accusing them of spreading “psychological warfare” lies, President Hassan Rouhani has admitted Iran accidentally shot down the Ukrainian jetliner that took off from Tehran’s international airport amid this week’s tensions.

In a pair of tweets, Rouhani admitted that “Armed Forces’ internal investigation has concluded that regrettably missiles fired due to human error caused the horrific crash of the Ukrainian plane& death of 176 innocent people,” adding that The Islamic Republic of Iran deeply regrets this disastrous mistake.”

Hassan Rouhani

@HassanRouhani

The Islamic Republic of Iran deeply regrets this disastrous mistake.

My thoughts and prayers go to all the mourning families. I offer my sincerest condolences. https://twitter.com/HassanRouhani/status/1215856039997984768 

Hassan Rouhani

@HassanRouhani

Armed Forces’ internal investigation has concluded that regrettably missiles fired due to human error caused the horrific crash of the Ukrainian plane & death of 176 innocent people.
Investigations continue to identify & prosecute this great tragedy & unforgivable mistake. #PS752

The army said Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 was flying close to a sensitive Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps military site when it wasdowned because of “human error,” adding that the “culprits” would be identified and referred to judicial authorities.

“Iran’s armed forces went on high alert following U.S. threats to target Iranian sites,” the army said in the statement.

“Under such highly sensitive and critical circumstances, the Boeing Flight 752 flew close to a sensitive IRGC military site at an altitude and angle that made it appear as a hostile target. The plane was hit due to human error and unintentionally.” (Harvey:  ???  ascending???)

In the aftermath of the incident, Rouhani arranged for “compensation” payments to the victims’ families, and ordered reforms of the country’s air defense system to prevent similar disasters in the future.

Iran will reportedly send the black boxes of the crashed jet to Franceas it lacks the technology to decode them, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif blamed “human error at time of crisis caused by US adventurism”for the disaster.

Javad Zarif

@JZarif

A sad day. Preliminary conclusions of internal investigation by Armed Forces:

Human error at time of crisis caused by US adventurism led to disaster

Our profound regrets, apologies and condolences to our people, to the families of all victims, and to other affected nations.
💔

Military officials will elaborate on the crash on state media on Saturday. There has been no response from The White House yet.

END

IRAN/SATURDAY/USA

Soleimani was not the only one targeted:  they wanted the key guy in Yemen

(zerohedge)

US Tried (And Failed) To Kill Soleimani’s “Guy On The Ground In Yemen”

Reaching the end of an insane and astounding week of Iran events, with the latest revelation being Iran’s admission and apology for accidentally shooting down a Ukrainian passenger jet amid its retaliation for Qasem Soleimani’s death, The Washington Posthasrevealed another bombshell involving a separate failed covert assassination attempt.

On very day of the US drone strike on Baghdad International Airport which took out Soleimani and his convoy, which included Iraq’s top paramilitary commander Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes, a separate but parallel operation was taking place in Yemen at the same time against a “top financier and key commander in Iran’s elite Quds Force who has been active in Yemen,” per the Post’s description.

US officials now say they also attempted to kill Islamic Revolutionary Guard commander Gen. Abdul Reza Shahlai on the same day (Jan.2), but failed. “The highly classified mission against Abdul Reza Shahlai in Yemen shows that recent U.S. operations against Iran were more ambitious and multifaceted than the air strike last week that the Trump administration said it undertook to kill Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad,” writes the WSJ.

 

Ahmed Reza Shahali, an Iranian military official targeted for assassination, has a $15 million US bounty on his head.

Little further details have been given, other than confirmation defense officials did not consider the mission a success, and therefore would have revealed the operation alongside the announcement of Soleimani’s death.

Shahlai is considered by the US to be behind attacks on US troops in Iraq, including abduction and killings of five American soldiers in the city of Karbala in 2007, and is currently active in Yemen allegedly training and supplying the Shia Houthis in their attacks on the Saudis.

Last year the State Department’s special representative for Iran, Brian Hook, said the United States remains “gravely concerned by his presence in Yemen and potential role in providing advanced weaponry of the kind we have interdicted to the Houthis.”

Further, according to the WSJ, “In 2011, Mr. Shahlai orchestrated and funded a plot to assassinate the then Saudi ambassador to the U.S., Adel al-Jubeir, at a restaurant in the Georgetown area of Washington, the State Department said.”

 

 

The IRGC’s Ahmed Reza Shahali (right).

Beyond that, there hasn’t been evidence offered of just how “imminent” the threat represented by Shahlai is, at a moment the Trump administration has struggled to justify the Soleimani assassination amid push back from skeptical reporters, given the narrative has changed and altered somewhat over the past week.

Matthew Levitt, a former Treasury Department official and Iran analyst, described Shahlai as Gen. Soleimani’s “guy on the ground in Yemen.” Shahlai currently has a $15 million US bounty on his head. “Clearly, the intent here was to target some of the Quds Force’s most important and capable proxy handlers,” Levit further told the WSJ.

end

IRAN/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
Huge protests in Iran on the weekend demanding that the Ayatollah quit over the airplane downing.
(zerohedge)

“Death To Liars!” Iran Swept By Wave Of Protests Demanding Ayatollah Quit Over Airplane Downing

Mass protests have again broken out in Iran at the end of a chaotic week for the country, capped by the early Saturday admission and apology for the military accidentally shooting down a Ukrainian passenger plane, killing all 176 people on board.

Additionally, it appears that the British ambassador in Tehran, Rob Macaire, was arrested shortly after photographing the protests.Iranian state sources are alleging he was helping to “organize” and incite the protests.

The UK ambassador to Iran Rob Macaire has been arrested during the protests in Tehran on Saturday, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.

Macaire was present during the Saturday protests in front of Tehran’s Amir Kabir University and was arrested then, Tasnim’s report said.

Strategic Sentinel

@StratSentinel

The UK Ambassador to has been arrested while photographing current protests taking place in related to and other grievances.

Though he’s reportedly already been released, the incident is likely to spark a major diplomatic row between the UK and Iran, given it’s almost unheard of to arrest a country’s highest diplomatic official.

 

Mourning turns to protests in Tehran. Image via AFP. 

In the first major protests since the Jan.2 US assassination of IRGC Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani, angry student-led demonstrations broke out in front of Tehran’s Amir Kabir university demanding that Iran’s leaders, including Ayatollah Khamenei step down over their initially concealing the truth about the airline downing.

“Commander-in-chief [Khamenei] resign, resign!” videos posted to Twitter showed Saturday.

However, their size in the hundreds paled in comparison with prior anti-government protests in the tens of thousands last November across multiple cities, which actually saw possibly hundreds killed in clashes with police which often involved live gunfire to put down the crowds by security forces.

Negar Mortazavi

@NegarMortazavi

Students at Amir Kabir University in Tehran chant against Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei calking him a killer who can not lead. ✈️

Embedded video

In a rarity, Iranian state media also acknowledged the new anti-government unrest fueled by news that it was Iran’s Revolutionary Guards which shot down the passenger jet, and not “mechanical failure” as was initially claimed.

As Reuters describes of the semi-official Fars report:

The report said the demonstrators on the street also ripped up pictures of Qassem Soleimani, the prominent commander of the Guard’s Quds Force who was killed in a U.S. drone strike.

The agency, widely seen as close to the Guards, carried pictures of the gathering and a torn banner of Soleimani. It said the protesters numbered about 700 to 1,000 people.

Video also showed moments where police rushed in to attempt to quash the growing protests, which could turn into bigger demonstrations Sunday.

Bessma Momani

@b_momani

Iranian forces lashing out at protestors again…

Embedded video

One regional report cited an Iranian protester’s grievances as follows:

“They were so careful not to kill any American in their revenge for Soleimani. But they did not close the airport? This shows how much this regime cares for Iranians,” said Iranian citizen Mira Sedaghati after the Iranian military admitted mistakenly shooting down the jet.

It also appears Iran’s significant political opposition in exile is seizing on the dramatic events of this week, with exiled Persian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi issuing a statement on Saturday saying, “This is not human error. This is a crime against humanity.”

He added in the Twitter statement: “He who has irresponsibly empowered his thugs to fire at will at innocents bears full responsibility. Enough is Enough. Khamenei and his regime must go.”

Farnaz Fassihi

@farnazfassihi

BREAKING:
Public mourning gatherings turn into protests in . Angry crowds chanting, “Death to the liars.”

Embedded video

“Vigils that were held near Amir Kabir University quickly turned into anti-government protests with people calling for the IRGC to leave the country,” an Al Jazeera correspondent reported from the scene.

Farnaz Fassihi

@farnazfassihi


Security forces & protestors standoff.
“Our hands are empty, put your guns down,” the crowd chants.

Embedded video

Meanwhile, following Iran’s rare apology which included Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif saying on Twitter that “human error at time of crisis caused by US adventurism led to disaster,” Ukraine’s President Zelenksy issued a stern rebuke of Iran’s handling of the crisis.

“The morning was not good today but it brought along the truth,” Zelensky said in a written statement early Saturday morning.

Maryam Khoramshahi@Maryamtaban12

Jan-11- ,
The state security forces shoot tear gas into the crowd of students outside University. Ridiculing the regime the voice says:
“they are mistakenly shooting tear gas at mourners” referring to the regime saying the was a mistake

Embedded video

But we insist on the full acceptance of guilt. We expect Iran to pledge readiness to carry out a full and open investigation, to prosecute those responsible, to return the bodies of the dead, to pay compensations, to extend official apologies via diplomatic channels,”the Ukrainian president wrote.

Secretary Pompeo

@SecPompeo

The voice of the Iranian people is clear. They are fed up with the regime’s lies, corruption, ineptitude, and brutality of the IRGC under @khamenei_ir‘s kleptocracy. We stand with the Iranian people who deserve a better future.

Embedded video

Among the many Iranians killed were also 11 Ukrainians as well as 63 people from Canada.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has already seized on the protests, tweeting they were a sign that the Iranian people “are fed up with the regime’s lies, corruption, ineptitude and brutality”.

END

IRAN/USA

Trump orders Iran to turn back on the internet and also orders the Iranian government not to kill protesters.  That fell on deaf ears, as the government ordered a crackdown on the protesters.

(zerohedge)

Iran Says De-Escalation ‘Only Solution’ As Anti-Government Protests In Tehran Turn Bloody

The government of Iran signaled that they would prefer to de-escalate tensions with the United States following 10 days of military skirmishes during which Tehran shot down a civilian aircraft.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told the visiting emir of Qatar that de-escalation is the “only solution” to the regional crisis sparked by the US killing of Iran’s top general, Qasem Soleimani, according to AFP citing the emirate’s ruler.

“This visit comes at a critical time in the region,” said Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, adding “We agreed… that the only solution to these crises is de-escalation from everyone and dialogue.”

 

Rouhani, meanwhile, said “Given the importance of security of the region… we’ve decided to have more consultations and cooperation for the security of the entire region.”

Also on Sunday, Hossein Salami, commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, said the missiles it fired last Wednesday on Iraqi bases hosting US troops were not aimed at killing American personnel.

“Our aim was not really to kill enemy soldiers. That was not important,” he told parliament.

The US said no American personnel were harmed in the attacks.

Across the border in Iraq, the military said rockets slammed on Sunday into Al-Balad, an Iraqi airbase where US forces have been stationed, wounding two Iraqi officers and two airmen. –AFP

While millions of Iranians turned out for the funeral of Solemani, Iran’s call to de-escalate comes as waves of anti-government protesters have taken to the streets to demand that Iran’s leaders, including Ayatollah Khamenei, step down over their initially concealing the truth about the airline downing.

 

face off the security forces in Tehran. Amazing photos by @MonaHoobehfekr @Isna_Int

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

After several days of denial, Rouhani on Saturday admitted that “human error” was to blame after a Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737 was shot down two minutes after taking off from Tehran, killing all 176 people on board. The Guards’ aerospace commander General Amirali Hajizadeh has accepted full responsibility, however demonstrators quickly filled the streets during a Saturday evening memorial at Tehran’s Amir Kabir University and shouted “death to liars!

Negar Mortazavi

@NegarMortazavi

Students at Amir Kabir University in Tehran chant against Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei calking him a killer who can not lead. ✈️

Embedded video

Negar Mortazavi

@NegarMortazavi

Tehran Amir Kabir university students chanting anti-government slogans after officials accepted they accidentally shot-down a Ukrainian flight with a missile. (Video from my source in Tehran) ✈️

Embedded video

On Sunday, President Trump tweeted: “To the leaders of Iran – DO NOT KILL YOUR PROTESTERS. Thousands have already been killed or imprisoned by you, and the World is watching,” adding “Turn your internet back on and let reporters roam free! Stop the killing of your great Iranian people!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

To the leaders of Iran – DO NOT KILL YOUR PROTESTERS. Thousands have already been killed or imprisoned by you, and the World is watching. More importantly, the USA is watching. Turn your internet back on and let reporters roam free! Stop the killing of your great Iranian people!

Sotiri Dimpinoudis@sotiridi

: Just in – Reportedly the video of the sound of shots being fired on the street of in in .

Embedded video

Sotiri Dimpinoudis@sotiridi

: Just in – At least 7 people were shot and bodies were reportedly been dragged away on the street of in in .

Embedded video

Sotiri Dimpinoudis@sotiridi

: Video of heavy clashes now taking place on the streets of , as brutal crackdown begins towards protestors of regime forces in .

Embedded video

Sotiri Dimpinoudis@sotiridi

: Just in – People in running away from the sounds of gunshots being shot by regime forces in .

Embedded video

Seems like Iran sees the writing on the wall and is trying to head off another colorful revolution courtesy of Regime Change, Inc.

END

IRAN/MONDAY

Getting pretty ugly in Iran, Monday morning as the regime crackdown on Iranian protesters

(zerohedge)

“You Killed Our Geniuses” – Regime Crackdown Intensifies As Iranians Flood Streets In Third Day Of Protest

 

Despite an aggressive crackdown by the Iranian regime that included soldiers and riot police firing into crowds of civilians – in open defiance of President Trump’s warning to Tehran not to “kill your protesters” – anti-government protests over Iran’s mistaken shoot-down of UIA Flight 752 continued on Monday for a third straight day, following the regime’s admission of responsibility on Saturday.

During the protests, which erupted out of anger over the regime’s initial lies about Flight 752 (it initially insisted that a “mechanical error” was responsible despite video evidence suggesting a missile strike), Iranian security forces fired both live ammunition and tear gas into crowds of demonstrators furious over the government’s denials.

Some of the video and images have shown what appear to be casualties, though death tolls and counts on the number of injured have been difficult to pin down.

 

As Reuters explains, the protests against the regime “are the latest twist” in the Trump Administration’s campaign of maximum pressure against Iran and its government. Over the weekend, President Trump tweeted a couple of messages of support for the protesters on the ground, including one tweet sent in Arabic.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

مشاور امنیت ملی امروز عنوان کرد كه تحریم ها و اعتراضات، ایران را«به شدت تحت فشار»قرار داده است و آنها را مجبور به مذاكره می كند.در واقع، اصلا برایم اهمیتی نداردکه آیا آنها مذاکره می کنند یا نه.این کاملاً به عهده ی خودشان است، اما سلاح هسته ای نداشته باشیدو«معترضان خود را نکشید.» https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1216506722153639942 

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

National Security Adviser suggested today that sanctions & protests have Iran “choked off”, will force them to negotiate. Actually, I couldn’t care less if they negotiate. Will be totally up to them but, no nuclear weapons and “don’t kill your protesters.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

To the leaders of Iran – DO NOT KILL YOUR PROTESTERS. Thousands have already been killed or imprisoned by you, and the World is watching. More importantly, the USA is watching. Turn your internet back on and let reporters roam free! Stop the killing of your great Iranian people!

Videos posted to social media on Sunday recorded gunshots in the vicinity of protests in Tehran’s Azadi Square. The wounded could be seen being carried off on stretchers as riot police fired what looked like rubber bullets. Other videos showed riot police beating protesters with batons, while others nearby screamed “Don’t beat them!”

Moreover, shouts of “Death to the dictator” could be heard in footage circulating on social media. It showed protesters shouting, directing their fury at Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the system of clerical rule.

“They killed our geniuses and replaced them with clerics,” demonstrators chanted at a one protest outside a university on Monday, a reference to the dozens of Iranian students who were returning to school in Canada who were aboard the flight.

SM Radio سمیرا@SMohyeddin

This is a brand new chant – never heard before. It’s in response to the caliber of people killed on & the people killed 40 years ago during Iran revolution

“THEY KILLED
OUR GENIUSES
& REPLACED
THEM WITH CLERICS” Sunday January 12th

Embedded video

The chief of police in Tehran insisted that Iranian police didn’t shoot any protesters…

“At protests, police absolutely did not shoot because the capital’s police officers have been given orders to show restraint,” Hossein Rahimi, head of the Tehran police, said in a statement carried by the state broadcaster’s website.

…Despite photos that appear to show individuals who have been shot with live ammo.

In one of the more dramatic chants, students at Tehran University reportedly shouted on Saturday that “They are lying that our enemy is America! Our enemy is right here!”

The regime is facing a tremendous backlash to the accidental shoot-down of Flight 752, a strike that killed 176 passengers and crew, including 60 Canadians. It’s thought that a misfiring of Iran’s Russian-made missile defense system brought down the passenger plane. Aside from the protests, some Iranian artists have spoke out against the regime. One famed director, Masoud Kimiai, withdrew from an upcoming international film festival. Two state TV reporters resigned in protest over the regime’s initial dissembling about the cause of the accident.

Though we didn’t see the level of violence that characterized protests in nearby Iraq last year, the Iranian regime came out in force. Uniformed police officers were only one arm of Iran’s vast security forces.

Riot police in black uniforms and helmets gathered earlier Sunday in Vali-e Asr Square, at Tehran University and elsewhere. Revolutionary Guard members patrolled the city on motorbikes, and plainclothes security men were also out in force.

It’s just the latest indication that the killing of General Suleimani and Iran’s response was truly an advantageous move for Washington and the West, as the Iranian regime hasn’t looked this fragile, or faced this much international condemnation in years.

So we probably can’t blame Tehran for its vicious crackdown, as the possibility of another revolution hangs in the balance.

END

IRAN/IRAQ/USA/SUNDAY NIGHT

Not good: it seems that Defense secretary Esper has contradicted Trump on specific evidence of embassy plots by the Soleimani’s gang of thugs

(zerohedge)

Esper Contradicts Trump: “Didn’t See” Specific Evidence Of Iran Plot To Attack 4 Embassies

When late last week President Trump first referenced a Soleimani-directed plot to “blow up” the US embassy in Baghdad, which during a Friday Fox interview became in the president’s words “I believe it would’ve been four embassies”  senators which had been given a classified briefing Wednesday balked, saying no such intelligence was referenced but should have been if there was evidence.

And now no less than Secretary of Defense Mark Esper appears to have publicly contradicted the White House’s rationale for taking out the “imminent” threat of Qasem Soleimani. Esper told CBS’ Face the Nation on Sunday that he “didn’t see” specific evidence for embassy attacks, while adding that he still believes such an attack was likely.

Kyle Griffin

@kylegriffin1

Defense Secretary Epser: “I didn’t see” specific evidence that showed Iran planned to strike four U.S. embassies.

Embedded video

“The president didn’t cite a specific piece of evidence. What he said was he believed,” Esper said.

“What the president said was that there probably could be additional attacks against embassies. I shared that view,” Esper said. “The president didn’t cite a specific piece of evidence.”

When pressed on whether intelligence officers offered concrete evidence on that point he said: “I didn’t see one with regards to four embassies.” — Reuters

During a separate CNN interview on Sunday, the Pentagon chief continued to awkwardly dance around the question of whether specific intelligence showed such an attack was being planned. Esper described that Trump merely “believed” it to be the case, while refusing to confirm any particular intelligence.

But earlier statements of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who before reporters defended Trump’s assertion about the IRGC targeting the embassies, suggested there was specific intelligence.

When Pompeo was pressed on Friday by reporters over the nature of the “imminent threat” claims, he said“We had specific information on an imminent threat and that threat stream included attacks on U.S. embassies. Period. Full stop.” And asked about what made it imminent, Pompeo simply said:“It was going to happen.”

Gareth Porter@GarethPorter

The lie about intelligence for the hit has now completely disintegrated. Esper admits he never saw intelligence show a threat to U.S. Embassies, but “shared the president’s view that probably…they were going to go after our embassies.” https://cbsn.ws/2FH3XVN

Esper says he “didn’t see” specific evidence showing Iranian threat to 4 U.S. embassies

The defense secretary told “Face the Nation” he “didn’t see” specific evidence showing four embassies were going to be attacked.

cbsnews.com

At first it was unclear whether President Trump was claiming to have seen specific intelligence outlining such a threat, or perhaps was just speaking generally and in his usual hyperbolic style (“blow up” the embassy) of the pro-Iranian mob’s actions besieging the US embassy in Baghdad days prior to the Soleimani assassination.

The demonstrators had been filmed setting the outer walls of the compound on fire during the chaotic events nearly two weeks ago which resulted in a contingent of Marines rapidly deploying from Kuwait to bolster embassy security.

Chris Murphy

@ChrisMurphyCT

Let’s be clear – if there was evidence of imminent attacks on four embassies, the Administration would have said so at our Wednesday briefing. They didn’t.

So either Fox News gets higher level briefings than Congress…

or…wait for it…

there was no such imminent threat.

So now Esper appears to be saying it was Trump’s personal belief, while Pompeo appeared to base it on “specific information” — in other words direct intelligence. But which is it?

It can’t be both ways.

Like the Bush administration’s famously evolving rationale for the war in Iraq, are we witnessing the narrative on Iran made up on the fly? 

END

6.Global Issues

Why are volcanoes  (and earthquakes) erupting all over the globe now?

This frightens me greatly

(Michael Snyder)

Why Are Volcanoes All Over The Globe Suddenly Shooting Giant Clouds Of Ash Miles Into The Air?

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

There certainly hasn’t been a lack of seismic activity so far in 2020.  Just a few days ago, I wrote about the horrific earthquake swarm that Puerto Rico is currently experiencing.  More than 1,000 earthquakes have rattled Puerto Rico so far, and as you will see below, it was just hit by another very large earthquake.  But right now volcanic eruptions have taken center stage.  In particular, a massive eruption in the Philippines is making headlines all over the world, but what most people don’t realize is that several other volcanoes have also blown their tops in spectacular fashion within the past week.  Suddenly, volcanoes all over the globe are shooting giant clouds of ash miles into the air, and this is greatly puzzling many of the experts.

Let’s review what we have witnessed over the past 7 days.

 

Last Tuesday, one of the most important volcanoes in Alaska shot hot ash 25,000 feet into the air

Shishaldin Volcano erupted at 5 a.m. Tuesday, the Alaska Volcano Observatory announced, and sent up an initial ash cloud to 19,000 feet. Clouds initially obscured the mountain, but satellite imagery confirmed the ash cloud, U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist Hans Schwaiger said.

Seismicity diminished for a few hours, but it then increased again. During the increase, the volcano spewed an ash cloud to 25,000 feet, the observatory announced. The later eruption increased the volume of ash.

There are 5280 feet in a mile, and so we are talking about an ash cloud nearly 5 miles high.

Then on Thursday, Mt. Popocatepetl in Mexico shot hot ash nearly 4 miles into the sky

Mexico’s Popocatépetl volcano burst to life on Thursday in a spectacular gush of lava and clouds of ash that hurled incandescent rock about 20,000 feet into the sky.

The dramatic explosion of the active stratovolcano, a little over 40 miles southeast of Mexico City, was captured on video by Mexico’s National Center for Disaster Prevention, CENAPRED.

Those that follow my work on a regular basis already know that I am deeply concerned about Mt. Popocatepetl.  It has the potential to create the worst natural disaster in the modern history of North America, because it is quite close to Mexico City.  The following summary of the potential threat that Mt. Popocatepetl poses comes from one of my previous articles

Approximately 26 million people live within 60 miles of Popocatepetl’s crater, and so we are talking about the potential for death and destruction on a scale that is difficult to imagine. In ancient times, Mt. Popocatepetl buried entire Aztec cities in super-heated mud, but then it went to sleep for about 1,000 years. Unfortunately for us, it started waking up again in the 1990s, and now this is the most active that we have seen it ever since the volcano originally reawakened.

Let us hope that Mt. Popocatepetl settles down, because the death and destruction that a catastrophic eruption would cause would be off the charts.

Meanwhile, down in South America the Sabancaya volcano in Peru just shot a plume of volcanic ash approximately 24,000 feet into the air

Explosive activity continues. Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Buenos Aires warned about a volcanic ash plume that rose up to estimated 24000 ft (7300 m) altitude or flight level 240 and is moving at 15 kts in S direction.

But hardly anyone is paying any attention to what just took place in Peru because of what just happened in the Philippines.

On Sunday, Taal volcano roared to life, and it is being reported that the eruption sent “steam, ash and pebbles up to 10 to 15 kilometers (6 to 9 miles) into the sky”.

Can you imagine that?

According to USA Today, ash has already reached Manila, and “red-hot lava” has started gushing out of the volcano…

Red-hot lava gushed from of a Philippine volcano on Monday after a sudden eruption of ash and steam that forced villagers to flee and shut down Manila’s international airport, offices and schools.

There were no immediate reports of casualties or major damage from Taal volcano’s eruption south of the capital that began Sunday. But clouds of ash blew more than 100 kilometers (62 miles) north, reaching the bustling capital, Manila, and forcing the shutdown of the country’s main airport with more than 240 international and domestic flights cancelled so far.

Unfortunately, authorities are warning that the worst may still be yet to come.

In fact, they are telling us that a “hazardous explosive eruption” could literally happen at any moment…

“The earthquakes were strong, and it felt like there was a monster coming out” as in the movies, Cookie Siscar, who had left the area and was relaying a report from her husband, Emer, a poultry farmer, told the Times.

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology increased its threat level for Taal Volcano to four out of five, saying that a “hazardous explosive eruption” could happen at any minute

Meanwhile, we continue to see unusual earthquake activity all over the globe.

 

After already experiencing more than 1,000 earthquakes since the beginning of 2020, Puerto Rico was hit by a magnitude 5.9 quake on Saturday

A magnitude 5.9 quake shook Puerto Rico on Saturday, causing further damage along the island’s southern coast, where previous recent quakes have toppled homes and schools.

The U.S. Geological Survey said the 8:54 a.m. (1254 GMT) quake hit 8 miles (13 kilometers) southeast of Guanica at a shallow depth of 3 miles (5 kilometers).

For quite a while, I have been warning that our planet is becoming increasingly unstable and that the shaking is only going to get worse.

I know that a lot of people didn’t believe me at first, and that is okay.

After the events of the last few days, perhaps a few more people will start to understand what is going on.

There have always been earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, but for most of our lives we have been able to assume that our planet is generally stable.

Unfortunately, that is no longer a safe assumption.

We have entered a period of time when all of the old assumptions will no longer apply, and everything that can be shaken will be shaken

END

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1124 UP .0010 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.86 UP 0.445 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2968   DOWN   0.0068  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO JAN 31/2020//

USA/CAN 1.3054 UP .0011 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 23.38 POINTS OR 0.75% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 316.74 POINTS OR 1.11%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,31%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 316.74 POINTS OR 1.11%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23.28 POINTS OR 0.75%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 31% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 110.70  POINTS OR 0.47%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1453.10

silver:$18.00-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.84% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32MON

The 30 yr bond yield 2.30 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 97.47 UP 11 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.43% UP 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.00%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.48%//UP 4 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,38 UP 6  in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 90 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.16% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.54% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1137  UP     .0023 or 23 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.93 UP 5339 OR YEN DOWN 53  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2981 DOWN .0056 POUND DOWN 56  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 6 basis points to 1.3048

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8938    ON SHORE  (UP)..

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8856  (YUAN UP)..

 

 

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8661 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.00%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 1.85 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.31 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.35 DOWN 1  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 29.75  0.39%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 31.79 POINTS OR .24%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 0.97 POINTS 0.02%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 29.70 POINTS or 0.21%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 124.81 POINTS OR 0.52%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 58.31 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 64.24 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    61.35  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.33 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 33 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.16 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  8.07//

 

 

BRENT :  64.16

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.84 plus 2 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.30…plus 2 basis pts..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1135 ( UP 21   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.92 UP .523 (YEN DOWN 52 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.37 UP 1 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2989 DOWN 48  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8626

 

 

the Russian rouble 61.28   DOWN 0.25 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 25 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3057 DOWN 15 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8938  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8826 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.16%

 

The Dow closed UP 83.28 POINTS OR 0.29%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 12.36 POINTS OR 0.20%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.36 CLOSED DOWN .20

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.837%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Dollar, Bonds, & Bitcoin Snooze As Tech Stocks Soar To Record-er Highs

Young NFL players (and leveraged-to-the-gills stock market longs) “need to start taking care of their chicken…”

Donté Stallworth

@DonteStallworth

Marshawn Lynch dropping jewels for NFL players in what could be his final presser as a player

Embedded video

Chinese markets surged overnight with small-cap, tech dominant…

Source: Bloomberg

Europe was mostly lower with UK’s FTSE bucking the trend with a gain…

Source: Bloomberg

In the US markets, The Dow underperformed (weighed down by UNH) as Nasdaq soared… (S&P and Nasdaq new record highs)

 

Dow futures spiked instantly on the “China removed as currency manipulator” headlines, then fell back, then the machines lifted the market back to run those stops, and then the market fell back… again…

The tech sector is now trading at its most expensive to the broad market since the highs in 2007…

Source: Bloomberg

And then there’s TSLA, which exploded higher today, “coincidentally” correlated with AAPL and the expansion of global liquidity…

Source: Bloomberg

And then there’s this masterpiece of analysis from Morgan Stanley: “Our ‘analysis’ of Fed balance sheet expansions suggests it does boost asset prices.”

Will TSLA hit $1000 before this is over?

Source: Bloomberg

Seriously… this is just a joke!

Source: Bloomberg

It’s not just TSLA, BYND soared over 30% today and up over 55% in the last 3 days as another massive squeeze has been engineered…

Source: Bloomberg

The decoupling between AAPL stock price and its implied vol is shocking…

Source: Bloomberg

The divergence is being driven by soaring demand for calls (levered longs), not puts (hedges)…

Source: Bloomberg

Shorts were squeezed (once again) with “Most Shorted” stocks soaring back last Wednesday highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Defensive stocks dominated cyclicals for the 2nd day in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

Stock prices relative to bond prices are back at their historical highs seen just before the collapse in Q4 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields limped higher today by 1-2bps across the curve…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar was a smidge weaker on the day, but basically trod water…

Source: Bloomberg

Amid the “currency manipulator” headlines, Yuan has rallied back to pre-Muchin label levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos are very marginally higher since Friday…

 

Bitcoin went nowhere, clinging to $8100…

Source: Bloomberg

Copper rallied strongly as crude crapped out today with PMs drifting lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold slipped lower today, with futures back at $1550 – pre-Soleimani levels…

And WTI tumbled to a $57 handle intraday…

 

And finally, tomorrow we see the start of the financial earnings reporting cycle. We thought these charts might provide some sense of the farce that this so-called ‘market’ has become…

Source: Bloomberg

Notice a pattern in these charts? Fun-durr-mentals don’t matter!!

end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Saturday

Trump now states that Soleimani plotted to bomb 4 USA embassies. On Sunday Esper contraddicted the President

(zerohedge)

Trump Now Says Soleimani Plotted Bomb Attacks On 4 US Embassies; Intel Senators Balk

Like many US interventions in the Middle East before, this story seems to continue changing by the day. The rationale for taking out the “imminent” threat of Qasem Soleimani has now centered on President Trump’s claim, first presented before reporters Thursday, that the IRGC Quds force chief was looking to blow up our embassy”.

And now the president has given further details on those prior statements, saying in a new interview with Fox News there was a plot to bomb four embassies across the region.

“I can reveal that I believe it would’ve been four embassies,” Trump told Fox’s Ingraham in an exclusive interview set to air in full Friday night. When pressed on specific targets, the president revealed: “We will tell you that probably it was going to be the embassy in Baghdad.”

 

US Marines stand guard at the American Embassy Compound in Baghdad, DoD via AFP.

This followed statements earlier in the day by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo over the president’s Thursday assertion Soleimani sought to “blow up” embassies. Pompeo was pressed by reporters over the nature of the “imminent threat” claims.

“We had specific information on an imminent threat and that threat stream included attacks on U.S. embassies. Period. Full stop,” he said. Asked about what made it imminent, Pompeo simply said: “It was going to happen.”

See President Trump’s newest statement asserting four embassies were being targeted in the Fox interview:

Josh Marshall

@joshtpm

Trump: Actually, Soleimani was about to attack four separate US embassies.

Embedded video

At first it was unclear whether President Trumpsaw specific intelligence outlining such a threat, or perhaps was speaking generally and hyperbolic (“blow up” the embassy) of the pro-Iranian mob’s actions besieging the US embassy in Baghdad days prior to the Soleimani assassination. The demonstrators had been filmed setting the outer walls of the compound on fire during the chaotic events of early last week which resulted in a contingent of Marines rapidly deploying from Kuwait to bolster embassy security.

Given Trump and Pompeo’s newest statements, it appears clear they’re referencing a previously unknown plot which they are presenting as tied to specific US intelligence data.

CNN also reveals as much in the following:

A senior defense official told reporters Thursday the US had intelligence about multiple plots and threats involving Soleimani, including one that involved a plan to attack the embassy using explosives.

The plot was separate and more sophisticated than the attempts to storm the US embassy in Baghdad by Molotov-cocktail wielding Khatib Hezbollah members and its supporters, an effort US officials have said was also orchestrated by Soleimani.

During Trump’s prior Thursday remarks, he tied the newly revealed alleged embassy bombing plot to the specific decision-making to go after Soleimani via drone strike, alongside other reasons including the Dec.27 death of a US contractor during a rocket attack by Khatib Hezbollah on a base in Kirkuk.

“We caught a total monster. We took them out. And that should have happened a long time ago. We did it because they were looking to blow up our embassy,” Trump said during those initial remarks.

“We also did it for other reasons that were very obvious. Somebody died… people were badly wounded just a week before. And we did it. We had a shot at it … that was the end of a monster,” Trump added, referring to the death of the American contractor by Khatib Hezbollah.

Trump’s new claims have already resulted in push back from Congressional leaders briefed on the matter Wednesday. Sen. Chris Murphy was the first to slam the new statements late Friday, saying no such intelligence on planned embassy bombings was presented:

Chris Murphy

@ChrisMurphyCT

Let’s be clear – if there was evidence of imminent attacks on four embassies, the Administration would have said so at our Wednesday briefing. They didn’t.

So either Fox News gets higher level briefings than Congress…

or…wait for it…

there was no such imminent threat.

And yet, confusion persists within the administration itself, as CNN reported that “Earlier Thursday, administration officials had explained Trump’s comments about the plot to blow up the US embassy by saying he was referring to the public demonstrations by Khatib Hezbollah.”

But in a separate Thursday rally in Toledo, Ohio, the president made it clear it was more than mere violent embassy protests: “Soleimani was actively planning new attacks, and he was looking very seriously at our embassies, and not just the embassy in Baghdad.” Trump added: “But we stopped him, and we stopped him quickly, and we stopped him cold.”

The latest interview with the president will air Friday night at 10 p.m. ET on Fox’s “The Ingraham Angle.”

end
The following illustrates how Trump used the Swiss to defuse the Iranian crisis
(zerohedge)

“I’d Like To See Them Call Me”: How Trump Used An Encrypted Swiss Fax Machine To Defuse The Iran Crisis

Even as Trump was rage-tweeting on Jan 4, two days after the killing of Iran’s top military leader Qassem Soleimani, that he would hit 52 targets including Iranian heritage sites for potential retaliation if America suffered losses following an Iranian attack, warning that “those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD”, the US president was busy, secretly using an encrypted back-channel to bring the world back from the brink of war.

As the WSJ reports, just hours after the U.S. strike which killed Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the Trump administration sent an urgent back channel message to Tehran: “Don’t escalate.” The encrypted fax message was sent via the Swiss Embassy in Iran, one of the few means of direct, confidential communication between the two sides, U.S. officials told the WSJ. Then, in frantic attempts to de-escalate even as top US and Iranian leaders were stirring patriotic sentiment and nationalistic fervor, the White House and Iranian leaders exchanged further messages in the days that followed, which officials in both countries described as far more measured than the fiery rhetoric traded publicly by politicians.

 

The Swiss ambassador to Iran, Markus Leitner, here with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in 2017, helped shuttle messages between the U.S. and Iran. Photo: Swiss embassy.

It worked: a week later, and after a retaliatory, if highly theatrical, Iranian missile attack on two military bases hosting American troops that purposefully inflicted no casualties, Washington and Tehran have stepped back from the brink of open hostilities (for now).

“We don’t communicate with the Iranians that much, but when we do the Swiss have played a critical role to convey messages and avoid miscalculation,” a senior U.S. official said.

While a spokesman at Iran’s mission to the United Nations declined to comment on the exchanges, he said “we appreciate [the Swiss] for any efforts they make to provide an efficient channel to exchange letters when and if necessary.” Another Iranian official said the back channel provided a welcome bridge, when all others had been burned: “In the desert, even a drop of water matters.”

In retrospect, it should hardly be a surprise that the perpetually neutral Swiss were the last recourse to prevent potential war.

As the WSJ notes, from the Swiss Embassy, a Shah-era mansion overlooking Tehran, the country’s role as a diplomatic intermediary has stretched through four turbulent decades and seven presidencies, from the hostage crisis under Jimmy Carter to Barack Obama’s nuclear deal. But it was seldom tested like this.

Here’s how it happened.

The first American fax was sent immediately after Washington confirmed the death of Soleimani, the most important figure in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the U.S. officials said. It arrived on a special encrypted fax machine in a sealed room of the Swiss mission – the most enduring, and secret, method since the 1979 Islamic Revolution – for the White House to exchange messages with Iran’s top leadership, especially when the two nations are concurrently parading in public media in their bellicose propaganda to earn political brownie points.

The equipment operates on a secure Swiss government network linking its Tehran embassy to the Foreign Ministry in Bern and its embassy in Washington, say Swiss diplomats. Only the most senior officials have the key cards needed to use the equipment.

Early on Friday morning, just hours after Soleimani’s death, Swiss Ambassador Markus Leitner, a 53-year-old career diplomat, delivered the American message by hand to Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. Predictably, Zarif responded to the U.S. missive with anger, according to a WSJ source: “[U.S. Secretary of State Mike] Pompeo is a bully,” he said, according to one U.S. official briefed on Zarif’s response. “The U.S. is the cause of all the problems.”

The US may indeed be the cause of all the problems, but it also has all the weapons, and despite the pompous rhetoric, Iran knew full well it could not hope to escalte in tit-for-tat fashion without risking virtually everything. Which is why, Iran was quick to take advantage of Leitner’s mediation.

The Swiss ambassador – who regularly visits Washington for closed-door sessions with Pentagon, State Department and intelligence officials eager to tap his knowledge about Iran’s opaque and fluid politics – spent the next several days after Soleimani’s killing shuttling back and forth in a low-key but high-wire diplomatic mission designed to let each side speak candidly. It was a vivid contrast to the jabs of President Trump and Mr. Zarif on Twitter.

Shortly after Trump tweeted on Jan 4 that the US had picked 52 Iranian targets for eventual escalation, Zarif responded just as belligerently on the next day: “A reminder to those hallucinating about emulating ISIS war crimes by targeting our cultural heritage,” he wrote. “Through MILLENNIA of history, barbarians have come and ravaged our cities, razed our monuments and burnt our libraries. Where are they now? We’re still here, & standing tall.”

However, at the same time as Zarif was seeking to emulate Trump’s twitter bluster, the Iranian foreign minister called the Swiss ambassador to take a message to the U.S. It was more restrained, and subsequent statements from both sides helped prevent miscalculations, the officials said.

“When tensions with Iran were high, the Swiss played a useful and reliable role that both sides appreciated,” said a senior Trump administration official. “Their system is like a light that never turns off.” Unlike Twitter, that is, which has emerged a medium for spreading premeditated, fake, outrage to mass consumption and whose sole purpose is to distract from what is truly happening behind the scenes.

It’s not the first time the Swiss have helped pull back the middle east from the brink of mushroom clouds: they have served as messengers between Washington and Tehran since 1980, in the wake of the seizure of the American Embassy—and 52 hostages —in Tehran by Iranian revolutionaries. Swiss diplomats call the role the “brieftrager” or “the postman.”

In the years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Swiss shepherded messages to help avoid direct clashes. When President Obama assumed office, Switzerland hosted the talks that led to a nuclear deal. When Washington lifted sanctions, Swiss businesses had an early jump on rivals.  When Trump reimposed sanctions, he gave the Swiss a phone number to pass the Iranians, saying: “I’d like to see them call me.”

So far, Tehran has continued to speak through the Swiss.

 

Why has this archaic method of communication proven so effective at pulling the world back from the edge of crisis?

Former Swiss ambassadors say the diplomatic channel is effective because the U.S. and Iran can trust a message will remain confidential, be delivered quickly, and will reach only its intended recipients. Statements passed on the back channel are always precisely phrased, diplomatic, and free of emotion, something which is clearly impossible on Trump’s favorite social media platform, twitter, which he uses for precisely the opposite purpose: to spark outrage and to appeal to base emotions of his core supporter group.

Switzerland, a landlocked country of nine million with no standing army where everyone owns a gun, parlays its role as the world’s neutral “postman” (and until recently, secret banker) to lever access to the great powers.

And speaking of Swiss bank, the WSJ notes that currently Swiss diplomats are working to get Washington’s green light for Swiss banks to finance exports to Iran that aren’t subject to sanctions—like food and medicine. “We do things for the world community, and it’s good,” said a former ambassador. “But it is also good for our interests.” Of course it is: for the privilege of funding the most basic human needs, those same Swiss banks can charge exorbitant rates of interest in a country that for years has had a negative official interest rate.

Iran isn’t the only geopolitical hot spot where the Swiss Embassy represents U.S. or other countries’ interests after the breakdown of diplomatic relations: the Swiss now holds six mandates including representing Iran in Saudi Arabia, Georgia in Russia and Turkey in Libya and the U.S. in Cuba according to the WSJ. In April 2019, the Trump administration asked Bern to represent it in Venezuela but President Nicolás Maduro’s government has yet to approve.

And so, if the world has any hope of avoiding an all out war between US and Iran, it will have to go through Bern, at least figuratively. As tensions between Washington and Tehran have escalated, the Swiss backchannel has remained active. In December the two countries released prisoners at the same time at a special hangar in the Zurich airport – U.S. special envoy on Iran Brian Hook and Iran’s Zarif sat in separate rooms as the Swiss directed the carefully choreographed exchange.

“The Swiss channel has become enormously important because of what they can do in the short term to lessen tensions,” said former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who worked with the Swiss on the prisoner exchange. “It’s the only viable channel right now.”

end
USA/Truck Manufacturing orders
Truck manufacturing orders plunge to decade lows in 2019
(zerohedge)

Truck Manufacturing Orders Plunge To Decade Low In 2019

The painful decline in Class 8 orders that we have been documenting on a month-by-month basis has resulted in truck manufacturing orders hitting a decade low in 2019, according to Americas Commercial Transportation (ACT) Research Co., a leading publisher of commercial vehicle industry data, market analysis, and forecasting services for the North American market.

Full year volume for Class 8 orders was 181,000 for the year, compared to 490,100 units in 2018. 

Sales in December followed the year’s trend, ticking lower on a year over year basis despite showing a 14% sequential rise.

Federal tax rate cuts in 2018 encouraged carriers to expand their fleets, resulting in major backlogs and tough comparable numbers for 2019, according to the Triad Business Journal.

In addition to the tough comps, ACT President and Senior Analyst Kenny Vieth also blamed the issues on “lower freight demand” in 2019.

Vieth said: “Overbuying through 2019 and insufficient freight to absorb the ensuing capacity overhang continued to weigh on the front end of the Class 8 demand cycle in December. Recalling July and August, orders were down 80% from the corresponding months in 2018.”

As we have documented throughout the year, some truck manufacturers, like Mack Trucks and Volvo Trucks, announced layoffs. Volvo announced last year that it would lay off 700 people at its Dublin, Virginia plant. Daimler laid off 900 workers in October 2019 and Navistar will lay off 1,300 workers this month.

Some trucking companies that we have profiled, like Terrill Transportationhave closed down entirely. 

END
PG and E problems.  If PG and E does not pay the 4 billion owed to FEMA, then the Feds may go after some of the victims who received money already.
What a mess
(zerohedge)

Feds To Bill California Fire Victims If PG&E Doesn’t Pay $4 Billion Owed: Report

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is prepared to bill California wildfire victims to recover a portion of some $4 billion it says it’s owed by Pacific Gas & Electric Co. (PG&E), in the event the debt isn’t resolved under the utility’s bankruptcy case, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.

The reimbursement would cover costs from the government’s response to fires in 2015, 2017 and 2018. According to the report, any payment to FEMA would have to come from the company’s $13.5 billion allocation intended to settle claims from fire victims. FEMA’s claim would consume around 30% of the settlement. Victims’ lawyers are now battling the agency, which told the Chronicle that it is compelled to first seek reimbursement from the utility – otherwise “individual victims would be on the hook if they get settlement money that duplicates funds already paid by the federal government,” according to the report, citing FEMA regional administrator Bob Fenton.

FEMA has “no interest” in reducing the amount of settlement funds made available to fire victims, said Fenton.

“What we are interested in doing is holding PG&E responsible and accountable for the billions of dollars taxpayers provided to assist individuals and communities affected by the wildfires,” he added. “The last thing I want to do is have to go after these individuals that have received claims from the bankruptcy where certain parts of that claim may duplicate funding that we’ve already given them. … It’s much easier up front to go ahead and simply deal with PG&E directly.”

As we have noted, PG&E’s latest bankruptcy – the second in two decades – has been a total mess, with US Bankruptcy Judge Dennis Montali stripping the utility of exclusive control over its recovery process as the utility attempts to modernize its infrastructure and battle annual fires.

After filing for bankruptcy one year ago this month, the company won court approval to deal with victims’ attorneys, as well as a separate $11 billion settlement to deal with insurance company claims.

That said, the company needs to meet several requirements to move forward with the rest of their case – including the formulation of a broader bankruptcy exit plan.

FEMA has asserted about $3.9 billion in bankruptcy claims against PG&E because of the 2015 Butte Fire, the 2017 wildfires in Wine Country and the 2018 Camp Fire. Court papers show that only about $282 million of the total relates to individual assistance FEMA gave to victims of the disasters — the rest is for aid provided to other government agencies and administrative costs.

The maximum amount of funding FEMA could possibly seek to recoup from individual victims would be even less than $282 million, according to FEMA spokesman David Passey. He said the individual assistance figure includes nonfinancial help, such as temporary housing, that the agency provided to disaster victims and would not try to recoup. –San Francisco Chronicle

In response to FEMA’s attempt to recover money from PG&E, 40 Congressional Democrats criticized the agency in a sharply worded letter claiming that the $4 billion sought “puts at risk the possibility that the thousands of families still struggling to rebuild their lives will not receive the restitution they deserve,” adding that the “inequality of this situation is evident.”

Former FEMA director and Democrat James Lee Witt also criticized the agency’s efforts to collect – telling the Santa Rosa Press Democrat that it was an “unusual” and “inappropriate” request.

Eric Goodman, an attorney for a committee of fire victims involved in the PG&E bankruptcy case, said FEMA’s defense of its $3.9 billion request “doesn’t hold any water” with him. Goodman’s firm is asking Montali to reject FEMA’s claim, in part because he says the relevant section of a federal law cited by the agency would apply only if the company intentionally started fires. –San Francisco Chronicle

“They haven’t alleged that PG&E is an arsonist,” Goodman said.

PG&E, meanwhile, told the Chronicle that FEMA’s request is inappropriate, and that the agency “does not have a valid legal claim against the company.”

The request is expected to come under consideration by Montali at a hearing next month.

END
This is a good indicator on the health of the economy: commercial and industrial loans.  If they are falling in issuance by the banks it means the economy is probably heading into a recession
(courtesy WolfRichter)

It’s Time To Pay Attention To Commercial & Industrial Loans

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

This solid recession indicator is starting to concern me again…

Commercial and industrial loans (C&I loans) at all commercial banks fell to $2.33 trillion as of January 1, the lowest since March 2019, according to Federal Reserve data on commercial banks, released on Friday. C&I loans peaked in August last year at $2.38 trillion and have since fallen 1.7%. This has occurred despite three rate cuts by the Fed over the period.

C&I loans are used by businesses for working capital or to finance capital expenditures. Working capital loans are usually collateralized by receivables and inventories. Capital expenditure loans are collateralized by equipment and the like.

 

These loans are often credit lines with floating interest rates – which are very low and very appealing for borrowers. And banks are eager to extend these loans and are offering them aggressively, even to my little company. So there is no issue at this side of the equation.

But demand from businesses for these loans is a sign of economic activity, a sign that businesses are expanding or curtailing their activities. And demand is sinking.

The chart shows the year-over-year percentage change of these loan balances. Note the relationship between the year-over-year declines (below the red line) and recessions. If loan demand suddenly bounces back over the next two or three months, I’d say the US economy has cleared this particular hurdle. But if the trend since August continues to go south and ends up in the -3% or worse neighborhood, a different scenario would emerge:

Year-over-year growth rates were in the red-hot neighborhood of 10% from late December 2018 through March 2019, then demand began to fizzle. By January 1, 2020, year-over-year growth was down to 0.6%.

The drop in 2015-2016 was associated with the Oil Bust and the industries related to oil and gas extraction, including manufacturing, trucking, and specialized segments of the tech and services sector. The balance of C&I loans dropped by $30 billion from the peak in November 2016 through March 2017, before beginning to rise again. But the growth rate never turned negative on a year-over-year basis, and a recession was averted. In 2016, GDP growth was only 1.6%, the slowest since the Financial Crisis.

Now we’re back in the same scenario, only worse: So far, loan balances have dropped by $42 billion in four months, from the peak in August 2019 through January 1, 2020.

The rekindled left-over oil bust has something to do with it, though the price of oil remains over twice as high as during the low point in 2016, and the oil bust today is not nearly as ferocious as it was back then.

Today, there are additional elements triggering the lack of demand for C&I loans, such as the broader slowdown in manufacturing and in the freight sector (outside of last-mile delivery for ecommerce). C&I loans are a broader measure of the economy, not limited to manufacturing. Many services businesses have C&I loans to fund equipment purchases or for working capital, collateralized by receivables.

C&I loans, in a growing economy, are growing at a good clip because they’re directly tied to business activity, for a broad range of businesses. And in the past, when loan demand declined significantly, a recession loomed. As for now, C&I loan balances have dropped 1.7% from the peak in August and are still up from a year ago, but barely, 0.6%. And if loan demand doesn’t bounce back soon and continues to head lower, it will be time to revive recession talk:

And more rate cuts won’t help in this respect. Interest rates are already low, and it’s not the cost of debt that keeps businesses from taking out C&I loans. It’s the lack of business on their part. C&I loan balances were surging in 2018 and 2019, even as interest rates were rising. But balances began to decline only weeks after the first rate cut at the end of July. This is a close-up of C&I loan balances over the past two years:

 

However, what happened during the Financial Crisis was special, in terms of my lifetime: Credit froze up; banks, some of which were collapsing, stopped lending; businesses stopped asking for loans; and C&I loans plunged off a cliff. This is not the scenario on the horizon at the moment.

The typical scenario would be something like in the prior two recessions where the business cycle does its thing, where a wave of business debt restructurings and bankruptcies reduce outstanding debts at the expense of investors and banks, and where businesses are hunkering down, and loan balances shrink because of declining demand, tightening credit standards, and debt restructurings.

The US economy is not there yet. C&I loans haven’t reached that stage yet, and might bounce back over the next few weeks or months. But if they continue to head south, the recession scenario is a big step closer.

*  *  *

Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? Using ad blockers – I totally get why – but want to support the site? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

What an absolute joke!  The FISA court picks a Trump hater to fix their problems

(zerohedge)

“A Ridiculous Choice” – FISA Court Sparks Firestorm, Appoints Conflicted, Anti-Trump Attorney To Oversee FBI Fixes

Update: President Trump has also noticed the ridiculous choice of Kris as FBI overseer…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

You can’t make this up! David Kris, a highly controversial former DOJ official, was just appointed by the FISA Court to oversee reforms to the FBI’s surveillance procedures. Zero credibility. THE SWAMP! @DevinNunes @MariaBartiromo @FoxNews

The President appears to be referencing Maria Bartiromo’s report from earlier this morning:

The Dirty Truth “Josh”@AKA_RealDirty

@DevinNunes tells @MariaBartiromo the ICIG wants to claim his office is incompetent and didn’t know any better. That’s fine but he’s going to have to prove that’s the case.

The Democrats know there’s a problem with the ICIG. His testimony is the only one they haven’t released.

Embedded video

The Dirty Truth “Josh”@AKA_RealDirty

.@DevinNunes tells @MariaBartiromo the ICIG was actually a lawyers for some of the people involved in the FISA abuse scam. The ICIG in theory works for the Congress. So it wouldn’t be hard for them to get the documentation of their stupidity.

Embedded video

*  *  *

Sharyl Attkisson, via SharylAttkisson.com,  reports that on Friday, the FISA Court posted an order naming anti-Trump lawyer David Kris to “assist the court” in assessing the FBI’s response to the court-ordered cleanup of lapses and abuses identified by Department of Justice Inspector General (IG) Michael Horowitz.

In a report released last month, the IG found FBI officials violated rules, policies and law in their applications to wiretap former Trump volunteer Carter Page. Horowitz testified the FISA surveillance process needs to be fixed “from top to bottom.”

To some, the appointment of Kris is as mysterious as why the FISA Court’s judges failed to flag the FBI abuses on their own.

In social media posts, Kris has called Republican Congressman Devin Nunes “a politicized, dishonest [Intelligence Community] overseer who attempts to mislead.”

“The Nunes memo was dishonest,” said Kris.

“And if it is allowed to stand, we risk significant collateral damage to essential elements of our democracy.”

He tweeted that Trump and his advisors should be “worried” that the “walls are closing in on him” regarding the Mueller probe.

Kris also bought into the now-disproven conspiracy theory about Trump colluding with Russia and Putin.

But even more importantly, since that time, Kris has advocated for President Trump’s removal.

Kris’s vocal opinions on President Trump and politics present numerous, obvious conflicts of interest.

David Kris

@DavidKris

BTW, Trump is likely wrong about who has leverage on a China trade deal – he desperately needs one before November 2020. For that reason, I’d be worried if I lived in Hong Kong: China will want – and get – a US concession not to fuss when it cracks down on HK demonstrators. 4/5

David Kris

@DavidKris

Regardless, however, America is now faced with a very stark choice: do we want to be a country in which elected officials can use their governmental power to attack political opponents? If not, it’s pretty simple: Trump has to go. 5/5

In addition, Kris writes for the anti-Trump blog “Lawfare” and called Lawfare’s chief, Benjamin Wittes, “incisive.” Wittes is the man who wrote of the need for an “insurance policy” against Trump prior to Trump’s election.

[O]ur democracy needs a health insurance policy…The courts have a few obvious advantages, starting with hundreds of independent judges of both parties whom Trump cannot remove from office and who don’t have to face his supporters in forthcoming elections…The goal…will be to offer a systematic defense of the values the Coalition of All Democratic Forces holds in common and to have the ability to respond rapidly to actions that threaten those values: to forestall such actions in court as long as possible, to whittle them down, and to block those that can be blocked. The goal is to use the courts to render Trump’s antidemocratic instincts as ineffectual as possible.

Benjamin Wittes, blogger, “Lawfare,” Oct. 24, 2016

Wittes is also a friend of ex-FBI Director James Comey who was referred for criminal charges for mishandling and leaking government information in his anti-Trump efforts. (The Justice Department passed up charges, with officials stating they didn’t believe Comey meant any harm.)

 

IG Horowitz flagged 17 mistakes in the FBI’s surveillance applications against Page and testified, “I think it’s fair for people to … look at all these 17 events and wonder how it could be pure incompetence.”

Likewise, one could look at the FISA Court’s appointment of Kris to help fix things… and wonder whether it could be pure incompetence.

The latest FISA Court action could be construed as a moment of chilling charity in the ongoing questions about how these abuses could have occurred, and the challenges with fixing them.

“He’s not going to do anything because in the end Kris doesn’t believe there was anything wrong with what went on at the FBI,” said a former law enforcement official.

“His selection by the FISC is how bureaucrats protect themselves and could care less about the American people or the Constitution.”

Additionally, House Intelligence Committee Devin Nunes’ told SaraACarter.com Sunday, that:

It’s a ridiculous choice. The FBI lied to the FISC, and to help make sure that doesn’t happen again, the FISC chose an FBI apologist who denied and defended those lies. The FISC is setting its own credibility on fire.

Read the FISA Court order naming Kris below:

end

Biden has been on the record for endorsing Bush’s war in Iraq

(zerohedge)

“This Should Be Disqualifying For Biden”: More Damning Footage Resurfaces

Yet another video of Democratic primary front runner Joe Biden passionately defending the 2003 Iraq invasion and occupation has resurfaced and is going viral. In it he even sings George W. Bush’s praises at a moment which came a mere few months after the now infamous “Mission Accomplished” stunt aboard the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln.

This comes in a campaign where he’s lied repeatedly about his leading role in pushing the war authorization through the Senate five months before the March 2003 invasion, seeking to distance himself and methodically conceal the facts now that public opinion has long shifted. It also has resurfaced at a moment John Kerry is currently making the rounds on major networks defending Biden against Bernie Sanders’ criticism of Biden’s clear pro-war record.

At a crucial moment Biden’s speech, delivered at the Hawkish DC Brookings Institution inJuly 2003 actually slammed anti-war Democrats and simultaneously upheld Bush and his disastrous war as “bold and popular” and promised further support to the neocon administration.

David Sirota

@davidsirota

BREAKING: Video emerges of @JoeBiden criticizing antiwar Dems, praising Bush for leading America into the Iraq War & promising he will support Bush’s continuation of the war

“The president of the United States is a bold leader & he is popular…I & many others will support him”

Embedded video

Some in my own party have said that it was a mistake to go to Iraq in the first place and believe that it’s not worth the cost, whatever benefit may flow from our engagement in Iraq,” then Delaware Senator Biden said.

“But the cost of not acting against Saddam I think would have been much greater, and so is the cost, and so will be the cost of not finishing this job. The President of the United States [Bush] is a bold leader, and he is popular.”

He continued, advocating for the Bush plan of occupation with no exit or concrete strategy: “The stakes are high, and the need for leadership is great. I wish he’d use some of his stored-up popularity to make what I admit is not a very popular case, but I, and many others, will support him when he makes the case.”

Meanwhile, just this weekend John Kerry — among the top Democrats to have recently endorsed Biden — was on CBS’ Face the Nation to make excuses and continue to spin Biden’s Iraq War vote and advocacy.

Bo Erickson CBS

@BoKnowsNews

NEW: @JohnKerry punches back at @BernieSanders criticism of @JoeBiden’s Iraq War vote:

“I think Bernie regrettably is distorting Joe’s record…” he says from the Biden campaign bus in Iowa. @CBSNews w/@margbrennan

The Sanders campaign punched back immediately after this latest Kerry interview, with spokesman Jeff Weaver saying the following:

“It is appalling that after 18 years Joe Biden still refuses to admit he was dead wrong on the Iraq War, the worst foreign policy blunder in modern American history,” he said in a statement. “Bernie Sanders saw the same information and had the judgment to vote against the Iraq War.”

This further follows last week The Interceptresurrecting a clip which showed Biden a full five years before the 2003 invasion arguing during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing that “taking Saddam down” should be a top US priority.

In the 1998 Senate hearing he appeared to even argue for preemptive attack:

“…the only way, the only way we’re going to get rid of Saddam Hussein is we’re going to end up having to start it alone — start it alone — and it’s going to require guys like you in uniform to be back on foot in the desert taking this son of a — taking Saddam down,” Biden said. “You know it and I know it.”

But again Kerry’s lame defense of Biden’s record focuses on flawed execution of the war: Former Secretary of State John Kerry defended former Vice President Biden over the Iraq War, saying that the George W. Bush administration “broke their word with respect to how they would proceed” in Iraq, NBC summarized.

Some progressives who in the lead up to the Iraq invasion were among the very anti-war voices being told by Biden to essentially shut-up and support Bush’s war are now livid.

Mehdi Hasan

@mehdirhasan

This should be disqualifying for Biden. Disqualifying. https://twitter.com/davidsirota/status/1216381872982200320 

David Sirota

@davidsirota

BREAKING: Video emerges of @JoeBiden criticizing antiwar Dems, praising Bush for leading America into the Iraq War & promising he will support Bush’s continuation of the war

“The president of the United States is a bold leader & he is popular…I & many others will support him”

Embedded video

“This should be disqualifying for Biden. Disqualifying” — writes journalist for The Intercept and Al Jazeera Mehdi Hasan.

It should also be noted that there’s archived footage showing that as Obama’s Vice President, Biden even praised Dick Cheney as a “decent man” from whom he’s received valuable guidance.

* * *

Watch in 1998, years before Bush’s invasion, ranking Senate Foreign Relations Committee member Biden actually argues for a preemptive attack:

“We’re gonna have to start it alone… taking the Son-of-a… taking Saddam down.”

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Boeing Employees Mocked F.A.A. and ‘Clowns’ Who Designed 737 Max – The company expressed regret at the embarrassing communications it sent to investigators on Thursday, which included a comment that “this airplane is designed by clowns, who are in turn supervised by monkeys.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/business/boeing-737-messages.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

But the rebound rally ended at 10:06 ET because Trump imposed new sanctions on Iran.  ESHs and stocks then slid into the European close.  The decline accelerated on reports that Pelosi would send the two articles of impeachment to Senate this week.

OAN’s @jennfranconews: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi asks House Judiciary CMTE chairman Jerry Nadler to be ready to have impeachment managers named next week and send two articles of impeachment to the Senate.

Trump slams Iran with new sanctions

New penalties will be imposed against any individual owning, operating, trading with or assisting sectors of the Iranian economy, including construction, manufacturing, textiles and mining…  Seventeen additional sanctions will be placed on Iran’s largest steel and iron manufacturers, three Seychelles-based entities and a vessel involved in the transfer of product, which will “cut off billions of support to Iranian regime,” he said… https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/trump-slams-iran-with-new-sanction

NYT: Iran Says It Unintentionally Shot Down Ukrainian Airliner

“The Islamic Republic of Iran deeply regrets this disastrous mistake,” President Hassan Rouhani said, as Iran reversed its claims that mechanical failure was to blame.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/10/world/middleeast/missile-iran-plane-crash.html

Ex-CIA agent @Kevin_Shipp: Someone has to ask the question: Who exactly was on Ukrainian flight PS752? Was there a high level Iranian defector with knowledge of Tehran’s intelligence operations? The Mullahs have demonstrated they will kill their own citizens, and those of other countries.

Impassioned protests demanding regime change appeared throughout Iran over the weekend.

@HeshmatAlavi: Jan 11 – Tehran, Iran – Students of Amir Kabir University are chanting during a large rally: “IRGC shame on you! Let go of the country!”  This rally follows today’s acknowledgement by the IRGC of downing a Ukrainian airliner… This anger is targeting @Khamenei_ir  & the IRGC after shooting down the Ukraine Int’l Airline flight PS752…

    Tehran, Iran Hafez Street – Anti-riot units firing tear gas into a massive crowd of protesters chanting: “Shame on you, shame on you!” “No fear! We’re all together!”  “Security forces attacked & dispersed around 200 mourners who were just lighting candles in Bahonar Park and crushed their candles,” according to @IranNW.  A woman curses at security forces & shouts: “Murderers!”

    Isfahan, central Iran – Crowd chanting: “The people are begging (economically poor), [@khamenei_Ir] lives like gods!”  “Down with the mullahs’ regime principle!”

@realDonaldTrump: The government of Iran must allow human rights groups to monitor and report facts from the ground on the ongoing protests by the Iranian people. There cannot be another massacre of peaceful protesters, nor an internet shutdown. The world is watching.

On Sunday, Iranian security forces shot tear gas and bullets at protesters.

CBS’s Catherine Herridge @CBS_Herridge: FISA More conflicting testimony. Former Dir Comey told IG Horowitz he “did not recall” being briefed on George P intel until after case opened July 31, 2016 p52.  McCabe “contemporaneous notes” suggest otherwise p53.

Revealed: Identity of top FBI official who leaked secret information to media

Department of Justice Inspector General Michael Horowitz determined that Bryan Paarmann, 53, the deputy assistant director of the FBI’s international operations division from 2016 to 2017, “improperly disclosed court-sealed and law enforcement sensitive information to the media” in violation of FBI rules… especially in 2016 and early 2017 Paarmann’s website features a photograph of him standing next to Mitt Romney… The DOJ decided not to prosecute Paarmann he has since retired.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/revealed-identity-of-top-fbi-official-who-leaked-secret-information-to-media

Inept, or worse, FBI Director Wray has risibly instituted more training as a means to prevent FISA abuse.

FBI Director Tells Surveillance Court He ‘Deeply Regrets’ Failures in Carter Page FISA Process

One remedy he plans to implement will be to use the Page FISA as a case study in training sessions that FBI personnel will be required to undergo… Wray set April 30 as a deadline to complete the training…

https://dailycaller.com/2020/01/10/christopher-wray-regrets-fisa-carter-page/

@realDonaldTrump: “FBI Director apologizes for FISA Errors (of which there were far too many to be a coincidence!).” @FoxNews Chris, what about all of the lives that were ruined because of the so-called “errors?” Are these “dirty cops” going to pay a big price for the fraud they committed?

Ex-NSC official @RichHiggins_DC: FBI guy texts: “I hate to burst everyone’s bubble but there was ALREADY extensive, periodic training on FISA regs…regs that HQ crew knowingly violated.  Anyone who runs a FISA knows not to do what they did. And yet again this is why field agents hate HQ…those jackasses do something wrong and decide the rest of us need to be punished.”

FISA Court starts firestorm by appointing conflicted, anti-Trump attorney to help oversee FBI fixes

  • Attorney David Kris tweeted: “Trump has to go”
  • Kris writes for and promotes the anti-Trump blog Lawfare
  • Lawfare’s founder wrote of needing an “insurance policy” if Trump were elected

https://sharylattkisson.com/2020/01/fisa-court-starts-firestorm-by-appointing-conflicted-anti-trump-attorney-to-help-oversee-fbi-fixes/

@realDonaldTrump: You can’t make this up!  David Kris, a highly controversial former DOJ official, was just appointed by the FISA Court to oversee reforms to the FBI’s surveillance procedures. Zero credibility. THE SWAMP!

Nunes: FISC Sets ‘credibility on fire’ Picking Defender of FBI Surveillance on Page to Oversee Reforms – Nunes told SaraACarter.com Sunday, that “It’s a ridiculous choice.”… in March 1, 2018, Kris stated in his report at Lawfare that the FBI’s actions were warranted in the Trump-Russia probe.

He’s not going to do anything because in the end Kris doesn’t believe there was anything wrong with what went on at the FBI,” said a former law enforcement official. “His selection by the FISC is how bureaucrats protect themselves and could care less about the American people or the Constitution.”…

https://saraacarter.com/nunes-fisc-sets-credibility-on-fire-picking-defender-of-fbi-surveillance-on-page-to-oversee-reforms/

GOP @RepMarkMeadows: There need to be answers for why David Kris was picked to oversee FISA reforms. He’s repeatedly downplayed blatant FISA abuse in the past and dismissed the damning IG report’s findings. How can he fix a problem he doesn’t even understand?

@ChuckRossDC: The irony. Dana Boente signs, under penalty of perjury, the FBI’s response to the FISC regarding the IG’s findings. Boente was DOJ’s signatory on one of the fraudulent Carter Page FISAs.https://fisc.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/Misc%2019%2002%20Response%20to%20the%20Court%27s%20Order%20Dated%20December%2017%202019%20200110.pdf

Intelligence Community’s Inspector General Is the Link between FISAgate and Impeachment

The American public must know more about Michael Atkinson’s ties to the same agency and same culprits who launched the phony Russian collusion scheme.

McCord, an Obama appointee and Atkinson’s boss for seven months, not only managed three of the four FISAs on Carter Page, she ran the department’s investigation into Trump-Russia collusion until she resigned in the spring of 2017McCord is mentioned more than two dozen times in Horowitz’s report. She became the division’s acting chief right before the department approved the first FISA application on Page.  Atkinson was her lawyer…

https://amgreatness.com/2020/01/09/intelligence-communitys-inspector-general-is-the-link-between-fisagate-and-impeachment/

@realDonaldTrump: House Republicans investigating origins of the Ukraine Whistleblower complaint. ICIG Michael Atkinson facing serious questions. “The Democrats know the ICIG is a major problem-didn’t release his testimony… Must get the ICIG answers by Friday because this is the guy who lit the fuse. So if he wants to clear his name, prove that his office is indeed incompetent.” @DevinNunes

Former govt. agent admits illegally spying on Sharyl Attkisson, implicates govt. colleagues

  • Former U.S. Attorney Rod Rosenstein is accused of leading the group.
  • Govt. hackers allegedly reported to FBI official who now heads CrowdStrike
  • Former FBI Unit Chief confirms he initiated forensic report proving govt. intrusion and reported to Attkisson

https://sharylattkisson.com/2020/01/former-govt-agent-admits-illegally-spying-on-sharyl-attkisson/

@VicToensing: How could USAtty John Huber close Uranium One investigation without interviewing my client  @DougCampbell? Huber never contacted me. Never contacted Doug who knows Russians were paying $$$ to Clinton Foundation to assure USG ok sale to their corrupt energy companies.

@paulsperry_: Gov’t watchdogs raising concerns Hunter Biden’s political gifts to several Senate Dems–inclg Leahy, Menendez,Booker,Whitehouse,Cardin,Cantwell--may transgress Senate “conflict of interest” rules & possibly trigger recusal requirements during Senate impeachment voting

Book to Reveal How Biden Family Siphoned ‘Millions in Taxpayer Cash’—Hunter Biden Just the ‘Tip of the Iceberg’ – The upcoming book, Profiles in Corruption: Abuse of Power by America’s Progressive Elite, is the latest investigative work from… Peter Schweizer… Beyond the Biden revelations, Profiles in Corruption also contains chapters with breaking news on top progressive luminaries, including: Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, Kamala Harris, Sherrod Brown, Eric Garcetti (LA Mayor), and Cory Booker…    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/01/09/bombshell-book-to-reveal-how-biden-family-siphoned-millions-in-taxpayer-cash-hunter-biden-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg/

Gallup: The U.S. Remained Center-Right, Ideologically, in 2019

  • Slight plurality of Americans in 2019 identified as conservative (37%)
  • Moderates nearly as high, at 35%, while 24% were liberal
  • Movement toward liberalism has slowed among Democrats, though still top group

Independents typically mirror the country as a whole, but in this case they are more centrist than center-right. A large plurality identify as politically moderate (45%), whereas 30% call themselves conservatives, and only slightly fewer are liberal (21%)…

https://news.gallup.com/poll/275792/remained-center-right-ideologically-2019.aspx

@omriceren: Flashback. 3 years ago this week. Final days of Obama admin.  Team Obama rushed to let Iran import 130 tons of uranium, enough to make 10 nukes. When asked what Iran was going to do with all that material, State Dept spokesman said “I’m not going to speculate one way or another.”

Diplomats: Iran to get natural uranium batch    January 9, 2017

The natural uranium agreement comes at a sensitive time. With the incoming U.S. administration and many U.S. lawmakers already skeptical of how effective the nuclear deal is in keeping Iran’s nuclear program peaceful over the long term, they might view it as further evidence that Tehran is being given too many concessions…    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/01/09/diplomats-iran-natural-uranium-batch/96367868/

@charliekirk11: When Osama Bin Laden was killed, the Senate unanimously passed a resolution 100-0 praising our troops for taking out a terrorist.  Today, ZERO Senate Democrats have supported an IDENTICAL resolution to praise our troops for the killing of Soleimani.  What changed?

The Gallup poll is more evidence of the corruption of pollsters and polls due to Dem oversampling.

Babylon Bee: Democrats Call For Flags to Be Flown At Half-Mast to Grieve Death of Soleimani

https://babylonbee.com/news/democrats-call-for-flags-to-be-flown-half-mast-to-grieve-death-of-soleimani

MSM types are increasingly attacking the parody site, Babylon Bee, for its biting political satire.

Political satire is dangerous, warns news industry that heaped praise on Jon Stewart

The Babylon Bee article in question is titled: “Democrats Call For Flags To Be Flown At Half-Mast To Grieve Death Of Soleimani.” It is quite clearly a joke. And a funny one.  Otis added, “You’ll see it’s also circulating on Twitter. Many accounts sharing it as funny satire, some sharing it because they say it’s satire but still close to the truth, and others that appear to not know at all that it’s satire.”…

    “The line between misinformation and satire can be thin, and real consequences can result when it is crossed,” the New York Times warned of the Babylon Bee in August 2019. “On social media, parody can be misconstrued or misrepresented as it moves further and further from its source. And humor has been weaponized to help spread falsehoods online.”…

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/political-satire-is-dangerous-warns-news-industry-that-heaped-awards-on-jon-stewart

Jim Comey’s daughter is a prosecutor in the Epstein case!

Jeffrey Epstein: Jail CCTV erased by ‘technical errors’

A letter filed by Assistant US Attorneys Jason Swergold and Maurene Comey said “the footage contained on the preserved video was for the correct date and time, but captured a different tier than the one where Cell-1 was located”, New York City media report…  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51053205

U.S. Probes If Russia Is Targeting Biden in 2020 Election Meddling

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-10/u-s-probes-if-russia-targeting-biden-in-2020-election-meddling

You can’t make this up!  Now Dems and the MSM are recycling the ‘blame Russia’ card in regard to Joe Biden?  This sounds like a plant from Team Biden.

@johncardillo: Only 45 people attend Bloomberg rally with Judge Judy despite campaign’s big spending  https://t.co/rlT5hSmcop

[Dem] Vermont senator introduces bill to make it a CRIME for anyone under 21 to have a cell phone – punishable by a $1,000 fine and up to a year in prison [Not a parody!!]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-7874293/Vermont-state-senator-wants-make-crime-21-cell-phone.html

Well that is all for today

I will see you TUESDAY night.

 

 

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