JAN 14/ANOTHER RAID FOILED: GOLD DOWN $5.00 TO $1544.05//SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TO $17.75//HUGE GAIN IN COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST AND EX.FOR PHYSICALS//QUEUE JUMPING IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER//USA HAS A HUGE BUDGETARY DEFICIT OF $357 BILLION FOR THE FIRST 3 MONTHS//ANOTHER HUGE REPO INJECTION (OVERSUBSCRIBED) OF $82 BILLION//FOR SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT////

GOLD:$1544.05 DOWN $5.00    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.75 DOWN 23 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

 

Gold :  $1546.75

 

silver:  $17.80

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  0/2

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,548.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/13/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 01/15/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 2 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 2 2
MONTH TO DATE: 2,539

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN CONTRACT: 2 NOTICE(S) FOR 200 OZ (0.0062 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  2539 NOTICES FOR 253,900 OZ  (7.8973 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JAN

 

 

2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 10,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 383 for 1,915,000 oz

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 8511 UP 403 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8714 UP 640

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 582 CONTRACTS FROM 234,485 UP TO 235,067 DESPITE OUR  10 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A   STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  535 AND MAY: 240 AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  775 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 775 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 775 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.875 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 10 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

1.955     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN JAN

MONDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 10 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED 1357 CONTRACTS. OR 6.785 MILLION OZ…..

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JAN:

13,264 CONTRACTS (FOR 9 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 13,264 CONTRACTS) OR 66.320 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1473 CONTRACTS OR 7.368 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN:  66.320 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 9.47% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          66.32   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 66.32 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 582, DESPITE THE  10 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /MONDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 775 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA)

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED  SIZED: 1357 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 775 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 582 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 10 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.98 // MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.171 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 167% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JAN MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 2 NOTICE(S) FOR 10,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018.  AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN: 1,955,000  OZ
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 8173 CONTRACTS UP TO 795,805 MOVING TO WITHIN A WHISKER OF  OUR ALL TIME RECORD (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. 

THE HUGE RISE IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE A STRONG LOSS OF  $8.75 IN PRICING  ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// MONDAY// / 

 

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 5170 CONTRACTS:

JAN 2020: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB>  4870 CONTRACTS APRIL: 300; DEC. 00 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 795,805,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,343 CONTRACTS: 8173 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 5170 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 13,343 CONTRACTS OR 1,334,300 OZ OR 41.50 TONNES.  MONDAY WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF $8.75 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND DESPITE THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUGE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 41.50  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (DOWN $8.75) THEY WERE TOTALLY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO  FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD OUR HUGE GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (41.50 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER.

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN SILVER AS THEY MORPH INTO GOLD AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE FEBRUARY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR GOLD:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF JAN. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN : 76,235 CONTRACTS OR 7,623,500 oz OR 237.12 TONNES (9 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8883 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 237.12 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 237.12/3550 x 100% TONNES =6.67% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     237.12  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 237.12 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 8173 DESPITE THE STRONG  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK MONDAY($8.75)) //.WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5170 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5170 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 13,343 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5170 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 8173 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 41.50 TONNES). ..AND THIS  INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $8.75 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING//RAID// AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

 

JAN 14/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 874.52 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY

 

 

 

 

JAN 14/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 582 CONTRACTS from 234.485 UP TO 235,067 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

EFP ISSUANCE 775

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  535:  AND MAY: 240 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 775 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 582  CONTRACTS TO THE 775 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD GAIN OF 1357 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6.935 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 1.955 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE  10 CENT LOSS GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 775 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.75 POINTS OR 1.04%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 69.80 POINTS OR 0.24%   /The Nikkei closed UP 174.60 POINTS OR 0.73%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .82%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8861 /Oil UP TO 58.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.67 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8858 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8861 TRADE TALKS STALL////TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

CHINA

Not sure if China can hold up their part of the deal..they must purchase a huge 40 billion in annual agricultural products.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)FRANCE/USA

France is going to introduce a digital tax and Trump willl respond with a huge 100% taxon Frewnch wines and Champagne

(zerohedge)

ii)ITALY

Salvini is gaining in popularity and by next month they will have the numbers to overcome the coalition

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)TURKEY/ISRAEL/CYPRUS/GREECE

Turkey is trying to muscle in on the huge Israel’s Cyprus gas find.  The world is condemning Turkish agression

Turkey will lose in this fight

(Kern/Gatestone)

ii)IRAN/UKRAINE/CANADA

Iran makes its first arrests in the fateful downing of our Ukrainian plane..still protests in the streets
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

Pam and Russ discuss the mechanics of the Repo loans originated from the Fed and how they are accumulated.

(courtesy Russ and Pam Martens)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

USA prices are are rising at their fastest pace

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)The uSA budgetary deficit for the first 3 months of fiscal 2020 rises to 357 billion USA. The figures includes the huge 21 billion in tariffs paid by China.  This is the highest level of a deficit since the blowout in 2011 where the deficit ultimately hit $1.3 trillion.  It sure looks like we are heading close to that figure.  With all of the job gains, I wonder why this is not reflected in greater income for the treasury.

(zerohedge)

b)oH oH!  We now have a huge 82 billion dollar injection into the repo pool.  It is the most oversubscribed level in one month and shows how addicted investors are to cash.

(zerohedge)
c)David Stockman highlights what will trigger the next financial collapse\a must read..
(David Stockman)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Another joke:  The New York Times claims Russian Hackers successfully “breached” Busima. the Security firm that detected the breach are democrat donors and have ties to Crowdstrike

(zerohedge)

b)The Democrats are demanding witnesses.  However they do not want toe Republicans to call Hunter Biden and/or Joe Biden as witnesses as the Republicans will rip them to shreads.

(Jonathan Turley)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY HUMONGOUS SIZED 8173 CONTRACTS TO 795,805 MOVING CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  THE CONSIDERABLE GAIN IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $8.75 IN GOLD PRICING // MONDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5170EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 4870  AND APRIL: 300,  DEC 00 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5170 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN ATMOSPHERIC AND  CRIMINALLY SIZED 13,343 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5170 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 8173 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL BY $8.75). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED  13,343 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES…..DESPITE THE STRONG LOSS

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  13,343 CONTRACTS OR 1,334,300 OZ OR 41.50 TONNES.  

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  795,805 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 79.58 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,475 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,475/2200 OR 112.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

We are now in the   NON active contract month of JAN.  This month is generally one of the poorest of delivery months for the year.  Here we have a total of 30 open interest left to be served upon, for a LOSS of 1 contracts.   We had 9 notices served up on yesterday so we surprisingly gained another 8 contracts or an additional 800 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of January. I can now safely say that the comex is under attack for metal!!

The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed a LOSS OF 26,741 in contracts DOWN to 433,768.  

March received another 6 contracts to stand at an open interest of 736.

The next active delivery month after March is April and here we witnessed a gain of 32,769 contacts up to 234,500 oi contracts.

We had 2 open interest notices served upon today for 200 oz

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY GOOD SIZED 582 CONTRACTS FROM 234,485 UP TO 235,067 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND OUR SMALL  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A STRONG 10 CENT LOSS IN PRICING/YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

Here we have a LOSS of 0 contracts TO REMAIN AT 10. We had 2 notices served on yesterday, so we gained 2 contracts or an additional 10,000 oz will stand for delivery during this non active delivery month of January. Silver along with gold are under attack for metal!! Our bankers have their work cut out for them.

 

 

 

After January, we have  the non active month of February and here we saw a GAIN of 14 contracts TO A LEVEL OF  490.  March is a very active month and here we witness a LOSS of 486 contracts DOWN to 178,070

 

 

We, today, had 2 notice(s) filed for 10,000, OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 358,296 contracts    

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY423,134 contracts

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JAN/GOLD

JAN 14/2020

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 2199.98 oz

HSBC

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
2 notice(s)
 200 OZ
(0.0062 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
28 contracts
(2800 oz)
0.0870 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2539 notices
253900 OZ
7.8973 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

 

ii)into HSBC: 2199.98

 

total deposits:  2199.98  oz

 

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

ADJUSTMENTS:  0

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  ADDED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE JAN 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 2 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2539) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JAN. (30 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (2 x 100 oz per contract) equals 256,700 OZ OR 7.9844 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JAN

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (2539 x 100 oz)  + 30)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2 x 100 oz )which equals 256,700 oz standing OR 7.9844 TONNES in this  NON active delivery month of JAN.

WE GAINED 8 CONTACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 800 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AND THUS REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY REFUSING TO TRAVEL TO LONDON THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 34.11 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    7.9844 TONNES

 

total: 129.876 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 6 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 19.2540 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 129.876  tonnes

 

Thus:

129.876 tonnes of delivery –

19.2540 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 110.622 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 34.017 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,334,232.623 oz or  41.50 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 109,365.15 oz (34.017 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC + BRINKS  which cannot settle upon:  240,581.146 oz  ( 7.4668    TONNES)//
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  109,365.15  (34.017 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,707,544.460 oz 270.841 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

JAN 14/2020
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 36,907.966 oz
Delaware
HSBC

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
299,184.04 oz
brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)
2
CONTRACT(S)
(10,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
8 contracts
 40,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  383 contracts

1,915,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

ii) Into Brinks:  299,184.04 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.4% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/319.730 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  299,184.04  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of Delaware: 16,898.866 oz

ii) Out of HSBC;  20,009.100 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 36,907.966   oz

We had 0 adjustment:

 

 

total dealer silver:  84.077 million

total dealer + customer silver:  320.668 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the JAN 2020. contract month is represented by 2 contract(s) FOR 10,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  JAN, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 383 x 5,000 oz =1,915,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (10) and the number of notices served upon today 2 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JAN/2019 contract month: 383 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN (10- number of notices served upon today (2) x 5000 oz equals 1,955,000 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month.

WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX AND REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY DOING THIS THEY ALSO NEGATED RECEIVING A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 2 notice(s) filed for 10,000 OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  88,182 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 66,142 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 66,142 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 330 million  OZ   47.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

and 81.48% of total silver open interest.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.38% ((JAN 14/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO +0.01% to NAV (JAN 14/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.38%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.36 TRADING 14.84///DISCOUNT  3,41

 

END

 

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JAN 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.6 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.80 TODAY:NA HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.69 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.12 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 9.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 A GOOD INVENTORY PAPER DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.18 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP #15.40 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $24.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONES INTO THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30

JAN 2/2020//WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $4.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25 TONNES

DEC 30//WITH GOLD UP $2.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.10 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.51 PAPER TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.86 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $14.60//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.64 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.56 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.66 TONNES

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: 1 SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.22 TONNES

DEC 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 13/ WITH GOLD UP $8.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 10//WITH GOLD UP $3.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $.60: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.34 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 5/2019: WITH GOLD UP $3.60 TODAY: A  SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 4/2019/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

 

DEC 2 /WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

 

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

 

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JAN 14/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 874.52 tonnes

*IN LAST 742 TRADING DAYS: 62.93 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 642 TRADING DAYS: A NET 104.12. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.261 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ//

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.268 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ///

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ//

JAN 7.//WITH SILVER UP 23  CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ..

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440 MILLION OZ///

JAN 3/2020//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440  MILLION OZ///

SINCE DEC 23 WE HAVE HAD A 94 CENT GAIN CORRESPONDING TO A 2.39 MILLION OZ OF PAPER WITHDRAWALS..AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

JAN 2/2020/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.616 MILLION OZ

DEC 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 30/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ

DEC  26//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 24/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ///

 

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.028 MILLION PAPER OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 17//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 747,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ/?

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13//WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 10//WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:  A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.495 MILLION OZ//// INVENTORY RESTS  AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.869 MILLION OZ FROM SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.100 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 5//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 3//WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.512 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ..

DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

 

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

 

 

JAN 14.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

355.697 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.83/ and libor 6 month duration 1.87

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .04

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.85%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.96

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.11

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Demand For Gold Coins and Bars At Perth Mint Surge To 3 Year High

14, January

Silver sales rose 32.5% from November and surged 97% from a year ago
Source: Perth Mint of Western Australia

by Reuters via Nasdaq.com

The Perth Mint’s gold product sales in December rose 45% from the previous month and to their highest in more than three years, the refiner said.

Sales of gold coins and minted bars in December climbed to 78,912 ounces – their highest since October 2016, and surged about 170% from the same month last year, the mint said in a blog post.

Meanwhile, silver sales in December were at 1,361,723 ounces, rising 32.5% from November and about 97% from a year ago.

Benchmark spot gold prices XAU= rose 3.6% in December, registering its biggest monthly gain since August, while silver prices gained 4.8%. GOL/

The Perth Mint refines more than 90% of newly mined gold in Australia, the world’s second-largest gold producer after China.

by Reuters via Nasdaq.com

NEWS & COMMENTARY

Gold logs lowest finish since the start of the year as risk-on sentiment prevails

Gold slips as risk-on sentiment weighs, trade deal in view

U.S. plans to lift China’s currency manipulator designation: Bloomberg

S&P 500 rises to record high after news the US will remove currency manipulator tag from China

Are Fed’s repo loans being repaid by Wall Street or just rolled over?

Fed on hold, but will financial risks matter?

Is Your Gold and Silver Bullion S.A.F.E. ?

Segregated, Actionable, Flexible and what are the total Expenses?


Watch Our Latest Video Update Here

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

This story is worth repeating. Palladium and Rhodium have surged the greatest of all our precious metals.  The reason of course is that there are no derivatives on either metal

(Bloomberg/GATA)

The world’s most precious metal leaves everything else in the dust

 Section: 

Could it be because there’s no futures market to rig its price with?

* * *

By Elena Mazneva
Bloomberg News
Sunday, January 12, 2020

Palladium’s great start to the year pales in comparison to its lesser-known but much more expensive sister metal, rhodium.

Rhodium — mainly used in autocatalysts and five times more costly than gold — surged 32% already this month, touching the highest since 2008. Stricter emissions rules have fueled a multi-year rally and there’s speculation that investors are also jumping in, betting that prices will climb toward a record.

… 

Rhodium rallied 12-fold in the past four years, far outperforming all major commodities, on rising demand from the auto sector. Like palladium, the metal is mined as a byproduct of platinum and nickel, but it is a much smaller market and so is liable to big price moves when supply or demand change. …

It’s much harder to invest in rhodium than in other precious metals. It isn’t traded on exchanges, the market for bars or coins is tiny compared with gold or silver, and most deals are between suppliers and industrial users. Global production is equal to little more than a 10th of platinum or palladium output. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-13/most-precious-metal-r…

end

Pam and Russ discuss the mechanics of the Repo loans originated from the Fed and how they are accumulated.

(courtesy Russ and Pam Martens)

Pam and Russ Martens: Are Fed’s repo loans being repaid by Wall Street or just rolled over?

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Monday, January 13, 2020

Last Friday the usually reliable and fact-intensive financial website Wolf Street threw a hissy fit over how the Wall Street Journal (and by extension, Wall Street On Parade) is reporting the tallies for the repo loans that the New York Fed has been pumping out every business day since September 17, 2019, to the trading houses on Wall Street.

… 

The inflammatory headline blared: “The Wall Street Journal (and Other Media) Should Stop Lying About Repos.” The author, Wolf Richter, explained his criticism as follows:

“Here is the ‘in’ of a repurchase agreement: The Fed buys securities (mostly Treasury securities and some agency mortgage-backed securities) in exchange for cash. This adds liquidity to the market.

“Here is the ‘out’ of a repurchase agreement: Every repo matures on a set date when the counterparties are obligated to buy the securities back from the Fed at a set price. At this point the repo unwinds and it drains liquidity from the market.”

The key flaw in Richter’s analysis is that last sentence. …

Neither the public nor Congress has any proof that these repo loans are being unwound. One or more of the 24 trading houses on Wall Street (primary dealers) that are authorized by the New York Fed to borrow from its money spigot at super-cheap interest rates could simply be rolling over the same loans or using term money to pay off one loan while taking out another loan.

There is a mountain of evidence to suggest that this is exactly what is going on. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/01/are-the-feds-repo-loans-being-rep…

Are the Fed’s Repo Loans Being Repaid by Wall Street’s Trading Houses or Just Rolled Over and Over?

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: January 13, 2020

Last Friday, the usually reliable and fact-intensive financial website, Wolf Street, threw a hissy fit over how the Wall Street Journal (and by extension, Wall Street On Parade) is reporting the tallies for the repo loans that the New York Fed has been pumping out every business day since September 17, 2019 to the trading houses on Wall Street.

The inflammatory headline blared: “The Wall Street Journal (and Other Media) Should Stop Lying About Repos.” The author of the piece, Wolf Richter, explained his criticism as follows:

“Here is the ‘in’ of a repurchase agreement [repo loan]: The Fed buys securities (mostly Treasury securities and some agency mortgage-backed securities) in exchange for cash. This adds liquidity to the market.

Trader on the Open Markets Trading Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

“Here is the ‘out’ of a repurchase agreement: Every repo matures on a set date when the counterparties are obligated to buy the securities back from the Fed at a set price. At this point, the repo unwinds, and it drains liquidity from the market.”

The key flaw in Richter’s analysis is that last sentence: “At this point, the repo unwinds, and it drains liquidity from the market.”

Neither the public nor Congress have any proof that these repo loans are being unwound. One or more of the 24 trading houses on Wall Street (primary dealers), that are authorized by the New York Fed to borrow from its money spigot at super cheap interest rates, could simply be rolling over the same loans or using term money to pay off one loan while taking out another loan.

There is a mountain of evidence to suggest that this is exactly what is going on. The first piece of evidence is that this is exactly what went on the last time the New York Fed turned on its $29 trillion money spigot to Wall Street from December 2007 to July 21, 2010. When the Government Accountability Office (GAO) was forced under legislation to look at the alphabet soup of lending programs the New York Fed had set up to disguise the astronomical sums it was spewing out to Wall Street’s trading houses (including their trading desks in London) it found that $16.1 trillion cumulatively had been pumped out – also at super cheap interest rates. It provided data for the peak amounts outstanding and also a cumulative total.

Why is a cumulative total essential and relevant? Because one institution, Citigroup, was insolvent for much of the time the Fed was flooding it with cheap loans. (Under law, the Fed is not allowed to make loans to an insolvent institution.) And when an insolvent institution is getting loans at interest rates below one percent when the market doesn’t want to loan it money at even double-digit interest rates, it’s highly relevant to know the cumulative tally of just how much Citigroup got from its sugar daddy, the New York Fed. According to the GAO, that tally came to $2.5 trillion for just some of these Fed loan programs. (See page 131 of the GAO study here.)

Today, highly questionable Wall Street trading houses are borrowing at 1.55 percent interest from the New York Fed while the free market attempted to set that rate at 10 percent on September 17 – the day the Fed bolted into action with supercheap loans.

The academic scholars that compiled the Fed’s loans during the financial crisis for the Levy Economics Institute also provided cumulative tallies. Their tally, which included additional Fed bailout programs, came to $29 trillion.

The names of these Wall Street trading houses, the dollar amounts they had borrowed and the period over which they had borrowed, remained a dark secret at the Fed for years until a media lawsuit and legislation forced it to come clean with the American people.

There is substantive evidence to suggest that the New York Fed, once again, has crafted a labyrinthine structure to hide exactly what is going on and how much any one Wall Street trading house is receiving. Just consider this labyrinthine statement the New York Fed made on December 12, 2019:

“The [Open Market] Desk will continue to offer two-week term repo operations twice per week [with $35 billion offered in each], four of which span year end. In addition, the Desk will also offer another longer-maturity term repo operation that spans year end. The amount offered in this operation will be at least $50 billion.

“Overnight repo operations will continue to be held each day [with $120 billion offered in each].  On December 31, 2019 and January 2, 2020, the overnight repo offering will increase to at least $150 billion.  In addition, on December 30, 2019, the Desk will offer a $75 billion repo that settles on December 31, 2019 and matures on January 2, 2020.”

How would anyone know if some trading houses are simply borrowing from one of these loan programs to pay off another Fed loan. We simply don’t know because the Fed doesn’t want us to know just as it didn’t want us to know during the financial crisis.

Also, instead of stating in simple language the total amount that any one trading firm can borrow on a single day or have outstanding at any one time, the New York Fed reverts to its typical obfuscation. For its overnight loans which are currently being offered at $120 billion per business day, it states that:

“Securities eligible as collateral for both overnight and term operations include Treasury, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities. Primary Dealers will be permitted to submit up to two propositions per security type…”

Since the predominant amount of loans, according to the New York Fed, have been made against Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities, that would mean that a Primary Dealer could submit a total of four propositions (two per security type) for each offered Fed loan. Now look at the New York Fed chart below. The overnight loan offerings of up to $120 billion indicate a “Proposition Limit” of $15 billion. We don’t know if that means $15 billion in total for all propositions or if it means that one trading house could ask for a total of $60 billion – four propositions at $15 billion each. The same ambiguity is true for the $5 billion “Proposition Limit” for term loans.

Partial List of Overnight and Term Repo Loans Provided to Wall Street (Source -- New York Fed)

Partial List of Overnight and Term Repo Loans Provided to Wall Street’s Trading Houses          (Source — New York Fed)

To help our readers understand just how crafty and incestuous the New York Fed has behaved when it comes to bailing out its miscreant banks, please see the related articles below.

As for lying about the Fed’s repo loans, we hope Wolf Street will focus its attention where it rightfully belongs – on the New York Fed and its jaded history as a regulator and a bailout kingpin.

iii) Other physical stories:

Nicholas Biezanek

5:30 AM (2 hours ago)

to Williamme
Hi Bill/Harvey,
Do you ever worry about the apocalyptic scenes as the Australian continent continues to burn to a cinder.Well stop worrying-nothing to see here.The ASX 200 just closed at 6,962.80,which is a 12 month high.Based on the last 6 months of 2019, I established ratios that for every tonne of physical gold withdrawn from the COMEX  110 tonnes of EFPs were created and for every ounce of silver withdrawn, 20 ounces of EFPs were created. I continue this daily exercise-miss a day and the reports disappear.For YTD 2020, the COMEX depositories have witnessed a grand total of 0.09 tonnes of  gold withdrawals.I will update at the end of the month.
It is dangerous to make assumptions. I assumed that BRINKS in NY conducted a reasonably genuine depository business and JP MORGAN,HSBC and possibly NOVA SCOTIA were responsible for most of the COMEX chicanery.Why then has BRINKS joined HSBC in introducing pledged gold into its NY Depository reports? Who can be trusted in these dangerous times?
Regards
Nicholas
END
J Johnson on his comex report
(courtesy J Johnson)

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/01/14/while-the-precious-metal-price-wanes-the-open-interest-gains/

While The Precious Metal Price Wanes, The Open Interest Gains!

Posted January 14th, 2020 at 11:19 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Tuesday Morning Folks,

        Gold is trading at $1,543.70, down $6.90 and recovering from the Asian low at $1,536.40 with the high to beat at $1,549.50. Silver is leading the dip, with its price now at $17.755, off by 24.1 cents and trading close to its low at $17.690 with the high to beat at $17.985. The US Dollar, which has to be printed in heavy fashion, is now trading at 97.180, up 12 points and trading right by its high of 97.195 with the low at 97.060. Of course, all this was done already before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after JPMorgan posted another profitable year in trade.

      The emerging markets currency watch continues to show the pressure applied to the precious metals (w/1 exception) as the Venezuelan Bolivar now shows Gold trading at 15,417.70 showing a reduction of 32.96 in value with Silver now at 177.328 Bolivars reducing its value by 2.697. In Argentina, Gold is now priced at 92,441.28 proving a loss of 32.71 A-Peso’s with Silver now valued at 1,063.32 showing a 13.39 A-Peso reduction in value. The Turkish Lira now has Gold priced at 9,096.43 Lira’s proving a gain of 29.71 in value with Silver at 104.614 a loss of 1.031 Liras.

      January’s Silver Delivery Requests are unchanged from yesterday’s early morning post with the count at 10 and with a Volume of 2 put up on the board late last night. So far, these 2 contracts have a trading range of $17.875 and $17.855 with the last trade at the high. Yesterday’s Volume gained 1 more buy before the end of the day as we now wait again for the Resolute Buyer to step in to buy more big bars.

      Open Interest says it all in the commodities arena. Those that continue to ignore this will find out in time what a commercial signal failure is all about and how it starts (and ends). Silver’s Overall Open Interest now stands at 235,097 Overnighters proving the paper contracts increased by 637. We’re only 9,099 contracts away from breaking new ground again as we get close and closer to the old high at 244,196 Obligations.

      Then we have Gold’s Open Interest, and it too continues to gain more paper promises, with last night’s Comex closing numbers showing an increase of 9,456 more short contracts being added in order to tell us “holders” how wrong we are about the price, bringing the total count to 797,088 Overnighters. Gold’s OI is now only 22 contracts away from making another new all-time high in paper, not price!

      Even though the prices are lower, the stage is still set for a move to sharply higher prices. This will happen when the short contracts get forced out, as the precious metals become harder to find at these low prices. That will happen in time as the Resolute Longs still refuse to leave making things very uncomfortable for the shorts. The Resolutes have lots of gumption, far more than the armchair warriors in a criminal element still sitting in short contracts, as our “It’s Not Called QE – QE” continues, in order to keep the system liquid, and against the Resolutes!

      Regardless of the shorts and their paper game, keep that contagious smile on your face, and a positive thought in the head, and as always …

Stay Strong!

  1. Johnson
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8858/ 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8861   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 8.75 POINTS OR 0.28%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 69.80 POINTS OR 0.24%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 174.60 POINTS OR 0.73%

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.45/Euro FALLS TO 1.1121

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.50 and Brent: 64.67

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.17%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.38% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.39%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.55: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.39

3k Gold at $1543.10 silver at: 17.75   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 24/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.99

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.05 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9678 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0762 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.17%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.84% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.30%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8961..

Global Market Meltup Fizzles Ahead Of US-China Trade Deal

US equity futures and European bourses were struck by a rare bout of weakness on Tuesday, as traders cashed in on recent record highs and waited for the details from the long-awaited U.S.-China Phase One trade deal and the official start of Wall Street earnings season.

After hitting a new all time high on Monday in a tech-led meltup, the main US equity benchmarks traded modestly lower with the S&P hitting session lows around the time Europe opened, then fading a modest rebound.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index also drifted lower, with losses in banks offsetting gains in retail and mining shares. Dealers struggled to put their finger on the exact cause but London, Frankfurt and Paris all took an early dip to leave the regional STOXX 600 as much as 0.5% lower and bonds and other safe-haven assets suddenly back in demand.  The reversal coincided with the arrival of a Chinese delegation in Washington ahead of Wednesday’s signing of the Phase 1 trade agreement, seen as calming a dispute that has upended the world economy.

It had been smooth sailing in Asia, where stocks were slightly higher and MSCI’s world stocks index set a new record high despite trimming gains as data showed China’s trade with the U.S. slumped last year. In contrast to Europe’s swoon, Japan’s Nikkei had added 0.7% overnight to hit its highest in a month. Australian shares rose by the same margin to close at a record. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Shanghai blue chips also hit multi-month peaks before running out of steam.

“There have been a number of false starts,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics at Mizuho Bank in Singapore. “The fact that this is really coming to the moment when the rubber hits the road is the most tangible evidence of traction in starting to resolve issues, that’s what’s driving optimism.”

United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told Fox Business late on Monday that the Chinese translation of the deal’s text was almost done. “We’re going to make it public on Wednesday before the signing,” he said.

“You had some good news in terms of China coming off the list of currency manipulators and so you would have expected bond prices to extend losses,” said Andy Cossor, a rates strategist at DZ Bank in Frankfurt. “So, I think it might be a case that people got ahead of themselves yesterday and are covering short positions.”

In FX, the Chinese yuan held most of its surge from Monday, when Washington lifted its designation of the country as a currency cheat. Beijing, meanwhile, had given its approval too by fixing the yuan’s official trading-band midpoint at its firmest in more than five months. China has also pledged to buy an additional almost $80 billion of U.S. manufactured goods over the next two years, plus more than $50 billion extra in energy supplies, according to a source briefed on a trade deal. In currency markets, the yen also stabilized after weakening past the 110 yen-per-dollar mark, and the Swiss franc was marginally higher against a lifeless euro.

The pound flirted with a possible sixth day of declines, which would be the longest losing streak since May. A number of heavyweight emerging market currencies were on the ropes too. The highly-sensitive South African rand hit a three-week low and Turkey’s lira took its biggest tumble since mid-December.

Treasuries nudged up, and the dollar rose versus its biggest peers. Ten-year Treasury note yields dropped a couple of ticks 1.8319% compared with the 1.85% they had been at in Asia.

Besides the trade deal, investors are also looking to U.S. inflation data due at 830am ET – with consensus expectations for it to hold steady at 0.2% in December – and the beginning of the fourth-quarter U.S. company results season. Big banks JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo are due to report earnings before market open on Tuesday.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.08% to 3,287.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.01% to 418.35
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 174.36
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 570.84
  • Nikkei up 0.7% to 24,025.17
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,740.53
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 28,885.14
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,106.82
  • Sensex up 0.3% to 41,992.00
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 6,962.20
  • Kospi up 0.4% to 2,238.88
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to -0.17%
  • Euro unchanged at $1.1134
  • Brent Futures unchanged at $64.20/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 5.5 bps to 1.206%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to 0.468%
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,543.80
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.07% to 97.41

Top Overnight News

  • The Trump administration on Monday lifted its designation of China as a currency cheat, saying the nation has made “enforceable commitments” not to devalue the yuan and has agreed to publish exchange-rate information. China’s 2019 exports edged up as total trade with U.S. declined
  • The Swiss franc hovered near its strongest levels since 2018 as the U.S. Treasury Department added Switzerland back to its currency watch list
  • British Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces his first battle of the next stage of Brexit, after the European Commission warned that a trade deal this year must include a fisheries accord. The prime minister’s office was quick to fire back Monday night, issuing a blunt statement: “We have been clear that once we leave the EU, we will be taking back control of our fishing waters.”
  • With Britain on the verge of quitting the European Union, global investment banks are stepping up lobbying efforts to maintain easy access to the bloc’s lucrative market.
  • Oil remained under pressure in Asian trade amid easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, although the continued improvement in U.S.-China trade relations offered the market some support
  • Global debt will exceed $257 trillion in the first quarter of 2020, driven mainly by non-financial sector debt, due to low interest rates and loose financial conditions, according to Institute of International Finance
  • Life insurers in Japan, one of the biggest investors in global bonds, sold the most foreign debt since 2015 last month as they pivoted back to domestic assets. The insurers dumped 451.1 billion yen ($4.1 billion) of sovereign and corporate bonds in December, according to data from the Ministry of Finance
  • President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial is likely to get fully underway next week. Senator John Cornyn of Texas said he expects opening arguments on Jan. 21. “Tuesday is what it’s feeling like,” he said
  • U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson says he is “very very very confident” the U.K. will reach a “comprehensive trade deal” with the European Union by end of 2020
  • German bond yields are creeping back toward positive territory for the first time in eight months, a sign that investors are growing more buoyant about the state of Europe’s economy. A deluge of supply from European governments so far this year is also damping the allure of the region’s safest bonds
  • The seventh Democratic presidential debate will take place in Des Moines on Tuesday — the last such forum before the Iowa caucuses next month. A winnowed slate of six candidates — Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, Tom Steyer and Amy Klobuchar — will gather for a televised event that will likely expose the growing rifts between and within the Democratic Party’s moderate and progressive flanks
  • Gold sagged again as the soon-to-be signed Sino-American trade deal, release of decent monthly economic figures from China, and steady easing of tensions in the Middle East all combined to undermine the case for havens just as U.S. equities romped to records

Asian equity markets were somewhat mixed as the region took its cue from the fresh record levels on Wall St amid the backdrop of the trade optimism heading into this week’s Phase 1 deal signing and after the US removed its designation of China as a currency manipulator. ASX 200 (+0.9%) followed suit to its US peers and posted a fresh all-time high led by tech and defensives, as well as the broad sectoral gains aside from gold miners which lagged due to losses in the precious metal, while Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) tested the 24k milestone on return from an extended weekend and with early advances spurred by a predominantly favourable currency. Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.3%) also initially benefitted from the trade developments in which the US backtracked just 5 months after it had labelled China a currency manipulator and with the initial details of the Phase 1 deal said to confirm China’s pledge to buy USD 200bln of US goods over a 2-year period, while the latest Chinese trade data added to the encouragement as Trade Balance, Exports and Imports mostly surpassed estimates for December although Chinese markets eventually gave back their gains and the data had also showed trade with the US contracted by 10.7% Y/Y throughout 2019. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower and slipped below the 152.00 with demand dampened by the gains across stocks and with a relatively tepid BoJ Rinban announcement for just JPY 130bln of JGBs doing little to underpin prices.

Top Asian News

  • Chow Tai Fook to Shut Stores as Protests Hit Hong Kong Retailers
  • How World’s Fastest-Growing Economy Plunged Into Stagflation
  • Kasikornbank Says Myanmar Plan Pending Regulators’ Approval
  • Thailand Expects Population Decline of 0.2% Per Year From 2028

A choppy session thus far for European equities [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%], in what started off on more of a downbeat note for the region, following on from a mixed APAC trade. Equity markets remain on standby ahead of US earnings season, which is set to kick off today, and with traders also eyeing tomorrow’s US-China Phase One deal signing. Sectors are largely in the green with no clear reflection of the overall risk sentiment. Individual movers have garnered more attention – with reports of credit card gambling to be banned in April this year weighing down on the likes of William Hill (-1.2%) and GVC (-0.8%), albeit the shares are off lows seen at the open. Meanwhile, Dialog Semiconductor (-1.4%) fell post-earnings after reporting a deterioration in EPS. Renault (-0.2%) failed to gain much traction after yesterday’s reports of a supposed end to the Nissan-Renault alliance were dismissed. Evonik (-4.2%) fell and remains at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after noting that revenue will be slightly below the prior YY and after RAG-Stiftung proposed the sale of around 24mln shares in the Co. On the flip side, miners are benefitting from yesterday’s surge in copper prices with Antofagasta (+1.7%), Glencore (+0.6%) also experiencing tailwinds from broker upgrades. Head-up, US earnings season will unofficially commence with earnings from JP Morgan, who accounts for around 3.2% of the DJIA, Wells Fargo and Citi.

Top European News

  • U.S., EU Square Up for Trade Brawl After Trump’s China Deal
  • Heathrow Airport Gets Thales Anti-Drone System to Detect Threats
  • Total Moves London Cash-Management Team to Paris on Brexit

In FX, the Dollar is holding a modestly firm line, with the DXY just shy of the 97.500 level ahead of US inflation data that is forecast to accelerate in headline terms and remain steady at the core. However, the Greenback’s stability between 97.455-339 owes much to weakness elsewhere as only the Swiss Franc is stronger amongst major currency peers, with Usd/Chf back below 0.9700 and Eur/Chf sub-1.0800.

  • GBP/CAD/AUD/NZD/JPY/EUR – The Pound is still succumbing to downside pressure on downbeat UK data and dovish BoE policy implications, as Cable extends declines through 1.3000 to circa 1.2955 and Eur/Gbp breaches December peaks before running into resistance ahead of 0.8600 and highs from November just pips above the round number. Elsewhere, the Loonie has lost mild traction gleaned from Monday’s relatively encouraging Q4 BoC business survey findings, with Usd/Cad back above 1.3050, while the Aussie and Kiwi have also handed back some gains made on the back of strong Chinese trade data overnight and confirmation that China has made enough FX pledges within the Phase 1 trade accord for the US to retract it from the currency manipulation list. Aud/Usd is under 0.6900 again, but may derive underlying support given hefty option expiry interest at 0.6900-05 (1.3 bn) and Nzd/Usd is losing altitude between 0.6634-17 parameters ahead of December’s NZ food price index. Conversely, the Yen is trying to pare losses within a 109.90-110.20 range amidst a degree of consolidation in broad risk sentiment, and the Euro is firm on the 1.1100 handle, albeit failing to sustain gains beyond 1.1145 after eclipsing the 200 DMA and flanked by more big expiries (2.2 bn between 1.1160-70 and 2.5 bn at the 1.1100 strike).
  • SCANDI – The Crowns are narrowly mixed with Eur/Sek elevated in a circa 10.5590-10.5285 band vs Eur/Nok straddling 9.9000 after weaker than forecast Swedish household consumption metrics and with the latter keeping tabs with oil prices.
  • EM – A decent pick-up in Turkish IP has not really helped the Lira to escape more geopolitical jitters as efforts to broker peace in Libya have been scuppered by the Hafta group leaving talks in Russia without signing on the dotted line. Usd/Try is hovering just below 5.9000 and extending its rebound in contrast to Usd/Cnh that continues to probe lower after breaching 6.9000 on the aforementioned US-China trade and FX positivity. Note also, Nomura notes that CTAs have flipped positions to net Yuan long vs the Buck for the first time since the start of Q2 last year, while covering shorts in the non-US Dollar commodity bloc

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures are ultimately on a firmer footing after erasing overnight losses – with the former rebounding off its 200 DMA (USD 57.74/bbl) whilst the latter found a base around the psychological USD 64/bbl mark. News flow has been light for the session thus far, although eyes remain on macro developments such as Middle Eastern tensions and US-China trade. Desks note that expectations for a well-supplied market are not currently reflected in the time spreads, with ICE Brent spreads still in deep backwardation, suggesting the physical market remains tight. On a more micro-level, traders will be looking for the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and API releases later today, with ING noting that participants would be eyeing the former for its forecast of US production growth; “with the falling rig count, the positive supply growth estimates for the US are increasingly coming under question”, the Dutch bank says. Wednesday will see the release of the OPEC monthly report, followed by the IEA’s report on Thursday to round up this month’s oil market releases. Elsewhere, spot gold remains tentative just below USD 1550/oz amid a lack of fresh fundamental catalysts, albeit the yellow metal printed a fresh YTD low ~USD 1536/oz overnight. Copper meanwhile holds onto a lion’s share of yesterday’s gains after prices briefly topped USD 2.85/lb – with traders citing an overall more positive macro sentiment, with the Phase One deal signing inching closer. Finally, industry sources note that Chinese demand for high-grade iron is poised to drop as steel mills attempt to cut costs and raise profit margins.

US Event Calendar

  • 6am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 104.6, prior 104.7
  • 8:30am: US CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%; CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%;
  • 8:30am: US CPI YoY, est. 2.39%, prior 2.1%; CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.3%, prior 2.3%; 8:30am:
  • 8:30am: Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 1.1%; Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 1.1%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets were in a bit of a holding pattern yesterday, with little economic data to speak of and investors awaiting the start of earnings season today. That said, sentiment was boosted by reports that the US would lift the currency manipulator label that it has placed on China. These reports were confirmed in the US Treasury Department’s semi-annual foreign-exchange report, originally due in mid-October, released overnight. The report stated that it is lifting China’s designation as a currency manipulator, placed in August last year, as the nation has made “enforceable commitments” not to devalue the yuan and has agreed to publish exchange-rate information. China’s commitments have been made part of the Phase 1 deal, according to the report. So we will have to wait till the Phase 1 deal agreement is published to know what these “enforceable commitments” actually are. Nonetheless, this can be seen as a positive sign ahead and beyond the signing of the Phase 1 deal tomorrow which Bloomberg reported that will take place in the East Room of the White House at 11:30 am.

Sticking with the foreign-exchange report, the document refrained from naming any major US trading partner as a currency manipulator among the 20 economies it monitors for potential manipulation. Switzerland was the new country added to the monitoring list, while China, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Italy, Ireland, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam remained. On the addition of Switzerland, the report highlighted that its foreign-exchange purchases have “increased markedly,” and encouraged Swiss officials to publish intervention data more frequently. Meanwhile, the report added that Thailand and Taiwan are not officially on the monitoring list but are close to breaching key thresholds.

Ahead of tomorrow’s signing, Politico reported overnight that of the Chinese pledges to buy $200bn of US goods over a two-year period, the target for manufactured goods purchases will be the largest at c.$75 bn. China will also promise to buy $50 bn worth of energy, $40 bn in agriculture and $35 to $40 bn in services. Continuing with trade, the EU’s new trade chief Phil Hogan will be in Washington to meet US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and other American officials as part of a three day visit beginning today (Jan 14-16) .

Overnight, Asian markets are trading mixed with the Nikkei (+0.68%) leading advances as it re-opened post a holiday while the Kospi is also up (+0.48%) but with the Hang Seng (-0.06%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.08%) seeing modest loses. As for Fx, the onshore Chinese yuan is up a further +0.266% today to 6.8753 while, the Japanese yen is down -0.11%. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are trading flat. As for overnight data releases, China December trade balance came in at $46.79bn (vs. $45.70bn expected) with exports growing by +7.6% yoy (vs. +2.9% yoy expected) and imports coming in at +16.3% yoy (vs. +9.6% yoy expected).

Back to yesterday and the risk-on mood supported both the S&P 500 (+0.70%) and the NASDAQ (+1.04%) up to fresh records with the semiconductor and NYSE FANG indices also gaining +1.31% and +2.27% respectively, although Europe was somewhat more subdued, with the STOXX 600 down -0.18%. Ahead of US Q4 reporting that starts in earnest today, its interesting to feel the positive momentum and sentiment we’re seeing so far this year. On this, our US asset allocation team have put out a report suggesting that positioning in US equities is now in the 96th percentile. This covers systematic (near maximum allocation) and discretionary investors (highest since October 2018 and quite near the top of the historic range). In terms of market pricing they believe the market is already well ahead of the fundamentals. So a word of caution from a team that been extraordinarily bullish on US equities over the last decade. See their report here for more. This does feel a little like January 2018 when the “melt-up” was savagely ended in February by the higher US average earnings print and the subsequent collapse in the inverse volatility ETFs.

For now it’s risk-on and consistent with that there was a broad-based sell-off in fixed income yesterday, with 10yr Treasuries up around 2bps to 1.842%, supported in part by Bostic’s comments about there being a “high bar” to make policy more contractionary, and the 2s10s curve steepening just over 1bp. In fact, over in Germany, ten-year bund yields climbed 4.1bps to -0.162%, their highest level since May. One notable point from yesterday is that the rise in bund yields meant that the spread of 10yr Treasuries over bunds fell to 200bps, the first time the spread has been that tight since February 2018.

Over in commodity markets, with Brent Crude down another -1.20% yesterday to its lowest level in a month, it felt as though the geopolitical tensions that started the month were but a distant memory, while gold, which had risen to a 6-year high at the height of the tensions, fell back by another -0.93%. Meanwhile palladium continued to climb, up for an 8th consecutive session to another record high.

In other news, here in the UK, investors ratcheted up their chances of a rate cut from the Bank of England later this month, meaning that sterling was the worst-performing G10 currency, falling below $1.30 yesterday. The first catalyst behind the move was the FT interview with MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe over the weekend that we highlighted yesterday. He said that he’d need to see an improvement in the data if he was not to vote for an interest rate cut. The second was a poor set of UK data out yesterday, with the monthly GDP reading for November seeing a -0.3% contraction (vs. unchanged reading expected). Notably, the year-on-year change fell to just +0.6%, which was the worst monthly year-on-year performance for the UK economy since June 2012, so in line with some of the other deteriorating data we’ve seen lately. The effects could also be seen in gilts, with 10-year yields down -2.0bps yesterday, in stark contrast to all the other major European countries yesterday, which saw a rise in yields.

To the day ahead, and earnings season kicks off in earnest, with reports from JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. In terms of data, the highlight will be December’s CPI release from the US this afternoon, while we’ll also get the December NFIB small business optimism index a bit earlier. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Mersch, Villeroy de Galhau, and Hernandez de Cos, along with the Fed’s Williams and George. Finally, this evening sees the latest Democratic primary debate

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.75 POINTS OR 1.04%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 69.80 POINTS OR 0.24%   /The Nikkei closed UP 174.60 POINTS OR 0.73%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .82%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8861 /Oil UP TO 58.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.67 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8858 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8861 TRADE TALKS STALL////TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA

Not sure if China can hold up their part of the deal..they must purchase a huge 40 billion in annual agricultural products.

China Agrees To Buy More Cars, Airplanes, Energy From US In Phase 1 Trade Deal

Sources familiar with the Phase 1 trade deal told Reuters China has agreed to purchase $80 billion of additional manufactured goods from the U.S. over the next 24 months, as part of the “Phase 1” trade deal that’s expected to be signed on Wednesday.

China is preparing to buy $50 billion more in energy products and increase purchases of U.S. services by $35 billion over the next several years, a source told Reuters.

Meanwhile, China will increase purchases of U.S. farm goods by $32 billion over 24 months, or by about $16 billion per year. When added to the $24 billion export baseline pre-trade war in 2017, the new total is around $40 billion in annual agricultural purchases

President Trump will sign the Phase 1 agreement with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, as President Xi Jinping opted not to attend the signing event.

 

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, on Monday, said the Phase 1 agreement is a “huge step forward” for US-China relations and “a really, really good deal for the United States.”

“We expect them to live up to the letter of the law. We’ll bring cases, we’ll bring actions against them if they don’t,” Lighthizer said.

However, analysts and traders who spoke with Reuters had doubts that China could boost agricultural, auto, and energy purchases to such levels.

President Trump has tweeted about the Phase 1 trade deal on several occasions, as it serves as an optically pleasing deal for his reelection. There are concerns about whether the agreement will be implemented in full and how to enforce China.

Another source told Reuters that an $80 billion increase of manufactured goods includes purchases of autos, auto parts, aircraft, agricultural machinery, medical devices, and semiconductors.

Reuters said, “the source providing the purchase figures expressed skepticism about manufactured goods pledges by Beijing since the U.S.-China trade deal does not address any of the non-tariff barriers that have kept these U.S. goods out of the Chinese market for decades, including procurement rules, product standards and subsidies to Chinese state-owned firms.”

There was even more skepticism when it came to China, buying more U.S. automobiles and parts. This is because China’s auto industry has gone bust with demand plunging and oversupply conditions persisting into 2020, as we noted earlier.

And what’s even more concerning is that the full details of the agreement won’t be released this week, according to the South China Morning Post and Politico.

Top Trump administration officials have repeatedly said that the text of the trade deal will be released on Wednesday, but as of Tuesday morning, that might not be the case.

The administration isn’t legally required to publish the full text because it was an executive agreement, said Derek Scissors, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

 

“Just because the U.S. is happy with the translation doesn’t mean we get to see everything,” he said.

China would also hesitate to sign a deal that admits wrongdoing.

“The Chinese are never going to admit in their version that they engage in coercive technology transfer,” Scissors said. “Is the Chinese version of things going to be very different from the U.S. version?”

While the U.S. may not release full details of the Phase 1 agreement this week, despite the repeated claims that they would, economists and experts have said the demands by the Trump administration for China are too aggressive and unrealistic.

But that might just be the point, after all. Most of what we’ve learned about the Phase 1 deal would suggest that this is merely a stopgap – an agreement with little substance that will help Trump through 2020.

Then the real tough negotiations will begin if he wins a second term.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

FRANCE/USA

France is going to introduce a digital tax and Trump willl respond with a huge 100% taxon Frewnch wines and Champagne

(zerohedge)

Champagne Tariffs Could Double Prices In US, Trigger 50,000 Job Losses

The Trump administration is considering 100% tariffs on French goods, including wine and champagne, in response to the country’s planned digital services tax, reported Reuters.

This would mean a $70 bottle of Moet & Chandon Grand Vintage could cost $130 if the new round of tariffs is implemented.

Trump administration officials have already said if France goes ahead with its controversial new tax on the profits of large tech firms such as Facebook and Google, a 100% tariff on $2.4 billion of French Champagne, handbags, cheese, and other products would be seen.

 

A 25% tariff on non-sparkling European wines remains in effect since October after the Trump administration got into a dispute with the European Union over Airbus’ subsides.

Industry experts told Reuters that French companies were able to absorb 25% tariffs, though, at a 100% rate, this would be impossible and would have to pass it through to consumers.

Next week, E.U. Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will discuss trade disputes in a meeting.

David Parker, chief executive of Benchmark Wine Group, a top U.S. supplier of wines, warned that 100% tariffs could cost the industry upwards of 50,000 jobs.

The U.S. is the largest foreign market for French sparkling wine. If tariffs are increased, U.S. consumers will reject higher prices and shift to other brands. French companies would have to rework their supply chains towards Asia and South American markets.

Robert Tobiassen, president of the National Association of Beverage Importers, said higher tariffs are likely, and that could be damaging to the industry.

END

ITALY

Salvini is gaining in popularity and by next month they will have the numbers to overcome the coalition

(zerohedge)

Italian ‘League’ Leader Matteo Salvini Is Ready For His Political Comeback

When Matteo Salvini and his League Party were banished to the Italian opposition late last summer after a failed coup attempt, he swore that he would have his revenge on his former coalition partners, the Five Star Movement, who formed a new coalition with the centrist-establishment PD and booted the League out of the government.

In the months that have followed, Salvini has been an incredibly effective leader for Italy’s opposition. And polls reflect his success: Most public opinion polls suggest the League is the most popular party in Italy.

Wojtuś

@WojReport

Matteo Salvini’s League party continues to dominate Italy’s polls.

The latest poll has Salvini and the League at 34%, only half a percentage point behind the combined support for the Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party, which form the current ruling coalition government.

View image on Twitter

Via his Twitter account, Salvini engages with voters while expounding on the problems facing Italy: drugs, crime a general sense of economic stagnation and malaise. With his folksy appeal, he has managed to win over areas in the Italian north that were once thought to be staunchly left-wing turf.

In its latest ‘Big Read’, the Financial Times explores how Salvini and his party have won over areas of Italy that were strongholds of the Italian Communist Party for decades. Even into the new millennium. Of course, the Italian Communist Party morphed into a left-wing social democrat party after the fall of the Soviet Union, like most other Communist Parties across Europe and Asia.

The FT story begins with Alan Fabbri, the mayor of the city of Ferrara, in northern Italy’s Emilia Romagna region. His parents were staunch communists, and his grandparents were partisans who fought against Mussolini. Yet, he registered as a member of the League when he was 19, and eventually rose to be mayor of Ferrara, despite it’s tradition of electing leftists.

But as a teenager, he joined the Northern League, which was then a right-wing separatist party. But under Salvini’s leadership over the past six years, the re-branded “League” has become a national right-wing party known for its anti-migrant stance. And according to most polls, it holds a plurality, even in regions with a history of a strong leftist tradition.

Why?

As the FT explains, because many former communists believe that the League is now the party that protects workers. It mirrors the shift in the US, as many unions backed President Trump and his position as a champion of workers.

Fabbri said his grandfather always had a copy of a Marxist newspaper on his kitchen table even though he was illiterate.

But for the new generation, things are changing. Nobody remembers WWII and the heroic efforts of the partisans fighting the fascists.

“Many here used to believe people could never vote for a right-wing party because of their family traditions, but that has changed. Many ex-communists now vote League as we defend workers. The left has taken this region for granted, they thought they had already won and they were shocked.”

All of this is important for one critical reason: Later this month, Italians in Emilia Romagna will head to the polls for regional elections that could help throw the balance of power in Italy’s parliament back in Salvini’s favor.

Incidentally despite it’s leftist tradition, the region is also one of Italy’s wealthiest.

Polls show the right-wing candidate, League stalwart Lucia Borgonzoni, is polling neck-and-neck with her left-wing rival.

Her victory would “trigger a crisis in the ruling coalition, threatening to bring down Italy’s government for the second time in six months.

Opinion polls are showing the rightwing coalition candidate, the 43-year-old League senator Lucia Borgonzoni, may be able to smash through Italy’s red wall. She is neck and neck with the incumbent centre-left Democratic party (PD) president of the region, Stefano Bonaccini.

Mr Salvini is bullish. “Let it be clear, we are going to win here,” he said on the campaign trail last week in Modena. “From the 27th of January the world is going to change…Everyone here tells me that they used to vote communist but now they don’t any more because they are no longer communists, they are something else now.”

Should Ms Borgonzoni triumph, not only would it deal a hammer blow to the PD, it would also probably trigger a crisis in the ruling coalition with the Five Star Movement, which could threaten to bring down the government. With Mr Salvini’s party far ahead of its rivals in national polls, new elections could then see the League leader sweep to power as Italy’s prime minister.

“If the PD lose in Emilia-Romagna, it 100 per cent has the potential to bring down the national government and set Salvini on course to become prime minister,” says Daniele Albertazzi, an academic at the University of Birmingham and expert on the history of the League. “It really is too close to call.”

If that happens, Salvini could finally realize his dream of becoming prime minister…and the new European Commission just might face its first crisis of confidence if Salvini pushes for ‘Italeave’ or even dropping the euro.

And for all of his critics who have branded Salvini a dangerous fascist, remember: he has supporters for a reason.

Alex Ferrari II@FerrariGop

Matteo represents the real people, captures the Italian spirit and desire for change: this is democracy, freedom, choice; and calling all this fascism or extremism is wrong and disrespectful – https://twitter.com/FT/status/1216601535213383681 

Financial Times

@FT

Italian politics: Matteo Salvini’s comeback bid https://on.ft.com/36OKfmO

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/ISRAEL/CYPRUS/GREECE

Turkey is trying to muscle in on the huge Israel’s Cyprus gas find.  The world is condemning Turkish agression

Turkey will lose in this fight

(Kern/Gatestone)

Turkey Muscles-In On Israel-Greece-Cyprus EastMed Gas Pipeline Deal

Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

Israel, Greece and Cyprus have signed an agreement for a pipeline project to ship natural gas from the Eastern Mediterranean region to Europe. The deal comes amid increasing tensions with Turkey as Ankara seeks to expand its claims over gas-rich areas of the Mediterranean Sea.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his Greek counterpart Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades, along with their energy ministers, signed the so-called EastMed pipeline deal in Athens on January 2.

 

The 6-billion-euro ($6.6 billion) project envisages the construction of a 1,900-kilometer (1,180-mile) undersea pipeline that would carry up to 20 billion cubic meters of gas a year from Israeli and Cypriot waters to Crete and then on to the Greek mainland. From there, the gas would be transported to Italy and other countries in southeastern Europe.

Israel, Greece and Cyprus hope to reach a final investment decision by 2022 and have the pipeline completed by 2025. The EastMed project, which would bypass Turkey, could eventually supply up to 10% of Europe’s natural gas needs.

The signing of the EastMed pipeline project came a month after Turkey and Libya reached a bilateral agreement on maritime boundaries in the southeastern Mediterranean Sea. The deal, signed on November 27 by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the UN-backed leader of Libya, Fayez al Sarraj, attempts to redraw existing sea boundaries so that Libya ostensibly can claim exclusive rights over 39,000 square meters of maritime waters that belong to Greece.

The bilateral agreement — which establishes a new Turkey-Libya economic zone that the EastMed pipeline would now have to cross — appears aimed at giving Turkey more leverage over the project. Referring to the Turkey-Libya deal, Erdoğan said:

“Other international actors cannot conduct exploration activities in the areas marked in the Turkish-Libyan memorandum. Greek Cypriots, Egypt, Greece and Israel cannot establish a natural gas transmission line without Turkey’s consent.”

In mid-December, the Turkish Foreign Ministry reportedly summoned Israel’s top diplomat in Ankara to inform him that Israel’s plan to lay down a natural gas pipeline to Europe would require Turkey’s approval.

Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman Hami Aksoy said there was no need to build the EastMed pipeline because the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline already exists. “The most economical and secure route to utilize the natural resources in the eastern Mediterranean and deliver them to consumption markets in Europe, including our country, is Turkey,” he said in a statement.

The European Union dismissed the Turkey-Libya deal was inconsistent with international law. In a statement issued on January 8, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, said:

“The recent Turkey-Libya Memorandum of Understanding on the delimitation of maritime jurisdictions in the Mediterranean Sea infringes upon the sovereign rights of third States and does not comply with the Law of the Sea and cannot produce any legal consequences for third States.”

Egypt condemned the Turkey-Libya deal as “illegal and not binding or affecting the interests and the rights of any third parties.”

Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias noted:

“Any maritime accord between Libya and Turkey ignores something that is blatantly obvious, which is that between those two countries there is the large geographical land mass of Crete. Consequently, such an attempt borders on the absurd.”

On December 11, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Çavuşoğlu hinted that Ankara could use its military to prevent gas drilling in waters off Cyprus that it claims as its own. “No one can do this kind of work without our permission,” he said in an interview with the newspaper Habertürk. “We will, of course, prevent any unauthorized work.”

Cyprus has been divided since 1974, when Turkey invaded and occupied the northern third of the island. Turkey, which does not have diplomatic relations with the southern Republic of Cyprus, an EU member, claims that more than 40% Cyprus’s offshore maritime zone, known as the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), is located on Turkey’s continental shelf and therefore belongs to Ankara or to Turkish Cypriots.

Cyprus is perched on the maritime edge of several large gas finds in the Levant Basin, including Leviathan off Israel and Zohr off Egypt. In the past, Turkey has used military force to obstruct progress on drilling activities waters it claims as its own.

In December 2019, for instance, the Turkish navy intercepted an Israeli ship in Cypriot waters and forced it to move out of the area. The ship, Bat Galim, of the Israeli Oceanographic and Limnological Research Institution, was conducting research in Cyprus’s territorial waters in coordination with Cypriot officials, according to Israel’s Ministry of National Infrastructure, Energy and Water.

In February 2018, two weeks after the Italian energy giant Eni announced that it had found “a promising gas discovery” in Cyprus’s EEZ, Turkish military ships stopped a ship hired by Eni to drill for gas off the Cyprus coast.

In October 2018, the Turkish navy interdicted a Greek frigate that was monitoring the Turkish seismic vessel “Barbaros Hayreddin Pasa,” which Greek authorities said was operating in waters claimed by Cyprus. A few days later, Turkish Energy Minister Fatih Dönmez announced that the drilling ship “Fatih” would begin drilling for oil and gas off the coast of Cyprus.

In May 2019, Turkey announced that it would begin drilling for gas in waters claimed by Cyprus. “The legitimate rights of Turkey and the Northern Cypriot Turks over energy resources in the eastern Mediterranean are not open for argument,” Erdoğan said. “Our country is determined to defend its rights and those of Cypriot Turks,” he added.

The United States subsequently warned Turkey against offshore drilling operations in waters claimed by the Republic of Cyprus. “This step is highly provocative and risks raising tensions in the region,” said State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus. “We urge Turkish authorities to halt these operations and encourage all parties to act with restraint.”

In July 2019, EU foreign ministers formally linked progress on Turkish-EU accession talks to Cyprus. A measure adopted by the European Council on July 15 stated:

“The Council deplores that, despite the European Union’s repeated calls to cease its illegal activities in the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey continued its drilling operations west of Cyprus and launched a second drilling operation northeast of Cyprus within Cypriot territorial waters. The Council reiterates the serious immediate negative impact that such illegal actions have across the range of EU-Turkey relations. The Council calls again on Turkey to refrain from such actions, act in a spirit of good neighborliness and respect the sovereignty and sovereign rights of Cyprus in accordance with international law….

“In light of Turkey’s continued and new illegal drilling activities, the Council decides to suspend … further meetings of the EU-Turkey high-level dialogues for the time being. The Council endorses the Commission’s proposal to reduce the pre-accession assistance to Turkey for 2020.”

In October 2019, Turkey defied the European Union by sending another drilling ship, the Yavuz, to operate inside waters claimed by Cyprus. Cyprus accused Turkey of a “severe escalation” of violations of its sovereign rights. Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi subsequently said that his company will not drill wells off the coast of Cyprus if Turkey sends warships to the area: “If someone shows up with warships I won’t drill wells. I certainly don’t want to provoke a war over drilling wells.”

On November 11, European Union foreign ministers agreed to a package of economic sanctions over Turkey’s drilling off the coast of Cyprus. In a statement, the Council of the EU said:

“The framework will make it possible to sanction individuals or entities responsible for or involved in unauthorized drilling activities of hydrocarbons in the Eastern Mediterranean.

“The sanctions will consist of a travel ban to the EU and an asset freeze for persons, and an asset freeze for entities. In addition, EU persons and entities will be forbidden from making funds available to those listed.”

On November 15, Turkish authorities again defied the EU by announcing that the Turkish oil-and-gas drilling ship Fatih had started operating off the coast of northeastern Cyprus.

Despite the tensions with Turkey, supporters of the EastMed pipeline project remain upbeat. At the project’s signing ceremony in Athens, Prime Minister Netanyahu said:

“This is a historic day for Israel, because Israel is rapidly becoming an energy superpower, a country that exports energy.

“This is a tremendous change. Israel was always a ‘fringe’ country, a country that did not have any connections, literally and figuratively. Now, in addition to our foreign relations, which are flourishing beyond all imagination and everything we have known, we have a specific alliance towards these important goals in the Eastern Mediterranean.

“This is a true alliance in the Eastern Mediterranean that is economic and political, and it adds to the security and stability of the region. Again, not against anyone, but rather for the values and to the benefit of our citizens.”

Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis said that the pipeline was of “geostrategic importance” and would contribute to regional peace. Greek Energy Minister Kostis Hatzidakis called it “a project of peace and cooperation” despite “Turkish threats.” Cypriot President Anastasiades said that his aim was “cooperation and not rivalry in the Middle East.”

Meanwhile, Israel’s $3.6 billion offshore Leviathan field, the largest natural gas field in the Eastern Mediterranean, commenced production on December 31, 2019, paving the way for multi-billion-dollar gas export deals with Egypt and Jordan.

Natural gas from the Leviathan field began flowing to Jordan on January 2, 2020, in accordance with a $10 billion deal signed in 2016. Egypt will begin importing Israeli gas by the middle of January.

The amount of gas extracted from Leviathan, located 130 kilometers west of the port city of Haifa, is expected to reach 105 billion cubic meters (bcm) over 15 years, while the nearby Tamar field will export nearly 30 bcm in the same period. The value of the exports is estimated at $19.5 billion, with $14 billion coming from Leviathan and $5.5 billion from Tamar.

“For the first time since its establishment, Israel is now an energy powerhouse, able to supply all its energy needs and gaining energy independence,” said Yossi Abu, the CEO of Israel’s Delek Drilling, one of the partners in the Leviathan project. “At the same time, we will be exporting natural gas to Israel’s neighbors, thus strengthening Israel’s position in the region.”

The President of the Texas-based Noble Energy, Brent Smolik, summed it up this way: “We think it’s a huge day for Israel and the region.”

END
IRAN/UKRAINE/CANADA
Iran makes its first arrests in the fateful downing of our Ukrainian plane..still protests in the streets
(zerohedge)

Iran Makes First Arrests In Downing Of Ukrainian Plane

It looks like Tehran has found its scapegoats for the accidental downing of Ukrainian International Airlines Flight 752.

According to Al Jazeera, Iran’s judiciary has announced the arrests of “an unspecified number” of suspects whom the state alleges are responsible for the accidental downing of a commercial passenger jet just hours after Tehran fired a barrage of missiles at several American installations in Iraq.

Iran has faced international outrage over the downing, as Tehran initially planned to refuse to allow any foreign powers to cooperate in the investigation. However, it has since changed its tack, agreeing to allow Ukrainian, Canadian, French and American investigators to examine the crash data recovered from the plane’s black box.

After initially denying any culpability in the crash (which killed 176 passengers and crew) while accusing skeptics of “psychological warfare,” Iran did an about face over the weekend, admitting that an IRGC missile operator shot down the plane because he thought it was a drone in what the regime described as a “disastrous mistake.”

In comments carried by state media, spokesman Gholamhossein Esmaili said on Tuesday that “extensive investigations have taken place and some individuals are arrested.” Though he didn’t offer any additional details.

Speaking to the country during a televised address on Tuesday, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani promised a thorough investigation into the “unforgivable error” of shooting down the plane.

It’s worth noting that the pressure faced by the regime in the wake of the accident wasn’t solely external. Over the weekend, hundreds of protesters took to the streets in Iranian cities, including Tehran, to demand justice for the mistake.

Rouhani said the regime would set up a “special court” overseen by a ranking judge and dozens of experts to investigate the “tragic event” (translation: the suspects will face show trials, capped with hefty sentences).

END

“This is not an ordinary case. The entire world will be watching this court,” Rouhani said, before insisting that everyone involved in the accident must be punished.

“For our people, it is very important in this incident that whoever was at fault or negligent at any level” faces justice, Rouhani said. “Anyone who should be punished must be punished.”

The president called the government’s admission that Iranian forces shot down the plane the “first good step.”

“We should assure people that it will not happen again,” Rouhani said, adding that his government was “accountable to Iranian and other nations who lost lives in the plane crash”.

One expert who spoke to Al Jazeera said Rouhani’s announcement was a “watershed moment” since the regime doesn’t usually take responsibility for its actions.

“People aren’t used to the military and state institutions taking state responsibility and accepting that they are wrong”.

We suspect that the regime will continue with the same level of ‘transparency’ going forward.

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1121 DOWN .0008 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.05 UP 0.041 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2975   DOWN   0.0011  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3070 UP .0014 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 14 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1121 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 8.75 POINTS OR 0.28% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 69.80 POINTS OR 0.24%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,82%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 69.80 POINTS OR 0.24%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.75 POINTS OR 0.28%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0. 82% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 174.60  POINTS OR 0.73%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1543.40.10

silver:$17.74-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.84% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.30 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 97.45 DOWN 6 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.43% DOWN 0 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.02%  UP 2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.48%//DOWN 0 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,40 DOWN 0 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 92 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.17% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.57% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1129  DOWN     .0005 or 5 basis points

USA/Japan: 110.05 UP .045 OR YEN DOWN 5  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3015 UP .0029 POUND UP 29  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 5 basis points to 1.3060

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8843    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8824  (YUAN DOWN)..

 

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8846 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.02%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.82 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.28 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.37 UP 3  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 3.45  0.08%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 4.97 POINTS OR .04%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 4.75 POINTS 0.08%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 15.60 POINTS or 0.16%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 31.62 POINTS OR 0.13%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 58.46 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 64.77 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    61.47  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.27 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 27 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.17 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  58.42//

 

 

BRENT :  64.62

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.81..down 3 basis pts…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.27….down 3 basis pts

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1129 ( DOWN 5   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.97 DOWN .043 (YEN UP 4 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.37 UP 3 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3024 UP 38  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8875

 

 

the Russian rouble 61.44   DOWN 0.24 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 24 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3063 DOWN 6 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8843  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8875 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.17%

 

The Dow closed UP 32.62 POINTS OR 0.11%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 22.61 POINTS OR 0.19%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.61 CLOSED UP .19

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.831%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Slip From Record Highs As Risk Demand Reaches “Historic Turning Point”

The market’s relationship with The Fed explained…

Sven Henrich

@NorthmanTrader

Market.
Fed.

Embedded video

The US market’s price-to-sales ratio has reached a new record high (but it’s different this time)…

Source: Bloomberg

And its PEG ratio has also never been higher…

Nomura’s Charlie McEllligott lays out what is holding this malarkey toegther…

  • “perpetually easy” US financial conditions make this an “everything rally” environment for investors, where risk assets / spread product should be supported by “firm” USTs over the course of 2020 (as I do not see scope for a large US Rates selloff as some are expecting, nor a massive rally for that matter)
  • “Goldilocks” US economic backdrop with benign inflation
  • Fed reaction function clearly skewed asymmetrically (super-low bar to ease, almost impossible bar to hike)
  • My belief that the current “QE-Lite” (in that the Fed are NOT buyers of “Duration,” just short-term Bills) will transition to standard “QE” over time, moving toward towards USTs / outright “Duration” purchases in an effort to provide “ample” reserves in the banking system and offset money market stress points
  • Long-term view from investors that the “Three D’s” will continue to create secular disinflation which makes will keep policy “easy” and rates “low”—the overall 1) trajectory of Debt growth, 2) fading Demographic impulse and 3) tech Disruption.

And positioning in options is extreme to say the least…

And the market keeps rising on the back of the biggest 2-day short-squeeze in 2 months…

Source: Bloomberg

For a few brief minutes today, the machines hiccup’d on China tariff headlines… but that didn’t last… until NYFed reduced the size of its repo plans and that dipped stocks again (briefly)…  S&P and Nasdaq dared to close red!

 

 

The Dow topped 29k once again, but couldnt hold it…

 

 

Bank stocks were mixed after earnings with C and JPM rallying as WFC tumbled…

 

Source: Bloomberg

The recent gains in the broad market have been driven by a resurgence in a defensive bid…

 

Source: Bloomberg

TSLA continued its parabolic ride, almost tagging $100bn market cap…

And while BYND continued its epic squeeze, after it was halted, it did start to fade fast…

But AAPL dared to close red…

Credit markets are (for once) leading the shift in protection costs higher (even if VIX was also higher today)…

Source: Bloomberg

But Junk credit spreads collapsed to their lowest since 2007…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the gains in stocks, bonds were also bid with Treasury yields down 2-3bps (short-end underperformed)… Today’s rally erases yesterday’s losses…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields fell back below pre-Soleimani levels…

Source: Bloomberg

And the yield curve flattened to almost one-month lows…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar trod water for a 4th day…

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan ended modestly lower after the trade headlines…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos surged today…

Source: Bloomberg

With Bitcoin jumping back above $8800 – 2-mointh highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Copper extended yesterday’s gains as PMs mirrored that to the downside, oil managed a modest gain…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold is back below pre-Soleimani levels…

WTI managed a small gains, bouncing off $58-the figure…

 

And finally, in case you wondered when this malarkey would end, Morgan Stanley’s Global Risk Demand index soared to +2.3 – above 2.00 has historically been a significant turning point for risk…

And don’t forget, stocks have priced-in a dramatic rebound in growth… that is failing to appear for now…

This won’t end well…

Source: Bloomberg

You are here…

Chris@Freedomtrader77

..How I feel being long in the Market at these levels..

Embedded video

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Stocks Tumble On China Tariff Headlines

Well that spoiled the party… however briefly.

Bloomberg reports that existing tariffs on billions of dollars of Chinese goods coming into the U.S. are likely to stay in place until after the American presidential election, and any move to reduce them will hinge on Beijing’s compliance with the terms of a phase-one trade accord, people familiar with the matter said.

The two sides have an understanding that no sooner than 10 months after the signing of the agreement at the White House Wednesday, the U.S. will review progress and potentially trim tariffs now in place on $360 billion of imports from China, the people said, declining to be identified because the matter is private.

And the reaction was instant… Dow dumped back below 29k…

And yuan weakened significantly…

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, only the imminent September tariffs were actually removed (before they hit) in the phase one deal, so this should not be a total shock. However, it appears the assumption was that the rest of the tariffs would be lifted sooner rather than later.

Tariff Man strikes again!

ii)Market data/USA

USA prices are are rising at their fastest pace

(zerohedge)

US Consumer Prices Accelerate At Fastest Since Oct 2018

Headline consumer price inflation was expected to accelerate its recent trend higher in December, and it did, but slightly disappointing.

Headline CPI rose 2.3% YoY (below the +2.4% YoY) but above November’s +2.1% and the highest since Oct 2018. Core CPI also rose 2.3% YoY (as expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

Goods prices barely managed to rise YoY in December as Services prices remained up around 3.0% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Energy and Autos saw MoM declines…

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in December after rising 0.2 percent in both October and November. The medical care index continued to rise, increasing 0.6 percent in December following a 0.3-percent increase in November. The prescription drugs index rose 2.1 percent, while the hospital services index increased 0.2 percent and the physicians’ services index advanced 0.1 percent.

The apparel index rose 0.4 percent in December following a 0.1-percent increase in November. The index for motor vehicle insurance rose 0.2 percent after falling in November. The index for new vehicles rose 0.1 percent in December, ending a series of five consecutive monthly declines. The indexes for recreation and for education also increased 0.1 percent in December.

The index for used cars and trucks fell 0.8 percent in December after rising in October and November.  The index for household furnishings and operations declined 0.4 percent in December, its largest monthly decline since December 2014. The index for airline fares fell 1.6 percent in December, its third consecutive monthly decline, and the index for personal care fell 0.2 percent.

Notably, shelter costs, which make up about a third of total CPI, decelerated…

They rose 0.2% after a 0.3% gain in November, and were up 3.2% year-over-year for the smallest advance since January last year. Both owners-equivalent rent, one of the categories that tracks rental prices, and rent of primary residence climbed 0.2% from a month earlier (up 3.69% YoY – lowest since Feb 2019).

The Labor Department’s CPI tends to run higher than the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index, which the Fed officially targets. The core PCE index that policy makers watch for a better read on underlying price trends softened in November, rising 1.6% from the same month in 2018. Core PCE has held below the 2% objective for the better part of seven years.

Having seen all that though, we suspect this push higher in inflation will be dismissed at “transitory” by The Fed as an excuse to keep the liquidity flowing as the asymmetric response function of Powell and his pundits becomes ever more obvious.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

The uSA budgetary deficit for the first 3 months of fiscal 2020 rises to 357 billion USA. The figures includes the huge 21 billion in tariffs paid by China.  This is the highest level of a deficit since the blowout in 2011 where the deficit ultimately hit $1.3 trillion.  It sure looks like we are heading close to that figure.  With all of the job gains, I wonder why this is not reflected in greater income for the treasury.

(zerohedge)

US Budget Deficit Blows Out To Nine Year High In First Quarter Of Fiscal 2020

The gaping US budget deficit hole is getting bigger with each passing month.

Earlier today, the US Treasury announced that in December (the third month of fiscal 2020), the US spent $13.3 billion more than it pulled in, and while the month’s budget deficit was modestly better than the $15 billion expected, it was virtually unchanged from the $13.5BN deficit recorded in Dec 2018.

Total December spending of $349billion, was 7.5% higher than a year earlier, with the biggest outlays for the month as follows: social security ($88BN), national defense ($62BN), Health ($49BN), Income Security ($39BN), Net Interest ($34BN), which was more than Medicare spending for the month ($26BN) and so forth. Meanwhile, receipts increased by an almost identical amount, rising 7.4% from $312.6BN to $335.8BN, thanks to $153BN in individual income taxes, $103BN in Social insurance and retirement receipts, and $58BN in corporate income taxes.

For the first three months of fiscal 2020, total Outlays rose to $1,163BN while Receipts were a far more modest $806BN, as broken out in the chart below.

 

This means that the cumulative deficit for the first three months of the year has surged to $357BN.

It also means that the deficit after one quarter of fiscal 2020 is now in the history books, was the widest going back all the way to 2011, when the US was still spending like a drunken sailor under President Obama, in response to the financial crisis, and when the final deficit for the full year soared to $1.3 trillion.

And while in 2020 nobody is predicting a full-year hole as big as 2011’s, with every passing month we get close to a number hinting that the US is spending as if it is emerging from a recession and a major economic crisis. That, or it is about to enter one.  One more thing to keep in mind: if it wasn’t for $21BN in customs duties collected mostly from China as a result of the trade war tariffs, the cumulative US budget deficit through December would be even worse than that in 2011.

One final point: with US debt recently surpassing $23 trillion, it is no surprise that interest expense on this debt has also pushed to all time highs, and in the latest quarter it stabilized just shy of the prior record, dipping modestly to $585 billion, roughly double where its average for the two decade period from 1990 to 2010, at which point it soared. One can only imagine what the interest expense will be if and when rates are ever allowed to norm

end
oH oH!  We now have a huge 82 billion dollar injection into the repo pool.  It is the most oversubscribed level in one month and shows how addicted investors are to cash.
(zerohedge)

Fed Injects $82BN In Liquidity As Term Repo Is Most Oversubscribed In One Month

It was supposed to be a one-time, year-end “liquidity event.” Instead, it has transformed into the latest liquidity addiction within the financial community.

Just days after we reported that yet another disturbance appears to be brewing below the calm surface of the repo market again, we got another indication just how strong the market’s addition to the Fed’s easy repo money has become, when moments ago the Fed announced that its latest 2-week term repo operation was also the most oversubscribed since December 16, as $34.3BN in securities ($27.65BN in TSYs, $15.5BN in MBS) were submitted for today’s $35 billion operation, as dealers continue to scramble to the Fed for liquidity which they are no longer using for “regulatory” year-end purposes (since it is no longer year-end obviously), but are instead using it to pump markets directly.

Today’s operation, which was the most oversubscribed in 2020, also saw the most submissions since Dec 16, and suggests that as repos are now maturing at a rapid burst (as we noted in “Mark Your Calendar: Next Week The Fed’s Liquidity Drain Begins“), dealers remain as desperate as ever to roll this liquidity into newer term operations.

And just in case there was any doubt that the liquidity shortage isn’t getting better, moments later the Fed announced that in its daily Overnight repo operation, it also accepted $47BN in securities ($22.5BN TSYs, $24.5BN in MBS) for a total liquidity injection of $82 billion.

Predictably, as the market’s repo addiction is now clear for everyone, in the wake of today’s term repo operations, traders were eagerly waiting for the release of the new repo schedule to see if there are any changes in the size of the offerings… but don’t hold your breath.

Why? Because The latest repo operations also confirmed what we discussed overnight in “Top Repo Expert Warns Fed Is Now Trapped: “It Will Take Pain To Wean The Repo Market Off Easy Cash“” in which we noted that according to Curvature Securities’ repo expert Scott Skyrm, something appears amiss as recently the total overnight and term Fed RP operations were greater than on year end! On year-end, the Fed had pumped a total of $255.95 billion into the market verses $258.9 billion last week..

The problem, as Skyrm explained, is that the market had gotten addicted to the easy Fed liquidity unleashed in September (via temporary repo ops), and then again in October (via permanent T-Bill purchases): “it’s easy to see how the Repo market can get addicted to easy cash from the Fed when the stop-out rates for the RP operations are 1.55% – behind the offered side of the market.” But, as the repo strategist added, as the Fed keeps injecting cash, the market gets used to it.

Which is great in the short-term as it sends risk assets soaring, but become a major issue over the long-term: The long-term problem is that the some investor cash (real money cash) that was once going into the Repo market is now going elsewhere”, Skyrm explains.

Indeed, the problem is that repo rates are trading in the lower end of the fed funds target range. When GC rates were higher in the range, Repo general collateral, as an investment, was more competitive than other overnight rates. But now that cash has gone to other markets.

In short, just as the market got addicted to QE and the result was a 20% drop in the S&P in late 2018 when markets freaked out about Quantitative Tightening, the Fed’s shrinking balance sheet, and declining liquidity, Skyrm cautions that “it will take pain to wean the Repo market off of cheap Fed cash” since “it‘s a circle” which can be described as follows:

For the Fed to end daily RP ops, they need outside cash to come back into the Repo market. For the Repo market to attract cash, Repo rates need to move higher. For rates to move higher, the Fed needs to stop RP ops.

The problem is that stopping RP ops could spark another repo market crisis, especially with $259BN in liquidity pumped currently – more than at year end – via Repo. It also means that the Fed is now unilaterally blowing a market bubble with its repo and “NOT QE” injections, and yet the longer it does so the more impossible it becomes for the Fed to extricate itself from the liquidity pathway without causing a crash.

Or stated simply, the longer the Fed avoids pulling the repo liquidity band-aid, the bigger the market fall when (if) it finally does. The question then becomes whether Powell can keep pushing on the repo string until the November election, because a market crash in the months preceding it, especially since it will be of the Fed’s own doing, will result in a very angry president.

 END
David Stockman highlights what will trigger the next financial collapse\a must read..
(David Stockman)

David Stockman: What Triggers The Next Financial Collapse?

Authored by David Stockman via InternationalMan.com,

International Man: You have sounded the alarm on a coming financial crisis of historic proportions. How do Trump’s trade policies figure into your view that a crisis is coming?

David Stockman: Trump’s trade policies only create more risk and rot down below.

 

The Fed has reverted to all of the things that have created the underlying rot—and that means when finally things break loose, it’s going to be far worse than it would have otherwise been.

Given that they’re kicking the can down the road, they’re building the pressure in the system to really explosive levels.

The trade chaos that Trump’s creating is probably the catalyst that will bring down the whole house of cards.

At end of the day, it’s about the Red Ponzi. The world economy would be not nearly as good as it looks had the Chinese not been borrowing like there’s no tomorrow and building regardless of whether its efficient or profitable.

This has kept the global economy inching forward on a totally artificial basis. You could track it; some people call it the “China credit impulse.” Every time they get into trouble, they turn on the printing press. That causes commodity prices to rise and industrial activity and trade to pick up. It shows up in the GDP numbers, and then everybody gets all excited.

The fear of recession that we had a while back has now abated. We’re back to another global reflation meme, but none of this is sustainable.

And yet that’s what has happened about three times since 2011. Each time, we have to remember the rulers in Beijing are digging themselves deeper into the hole. They’ve got an economy now that they claim is worth $13 trillion of GDP, but it’s got $40 trillion of debt on it. That’s just bank debt! I’m not even talking about the other forms of debt, such as trade debt, bond debt, so on and so forth.

It’s like nothing we’ve ever seen before. People should be fearful that this tower of debt is visibly wavering, as China is getting clobbered by Trump’s trade war.

Recently, exports to the United States were down 23% from the prior year.

Nothing like this has happened in a decade or longer. China’s investment in fixed assets, which has kept their whole economy going, is slowly grinding to a halt. The leaders there are desperately trying to keep the whole Ponzi going. That’s the heart of the risk.

Yet Trump is going right at it because of his primitive view that everybody else cheats and we have to teach China a lesson.

The trade problem in the world is real, but it’s a consequence of bad money, not a consequence of bad trade policies, stupid people doing bad negotiations, or stupid presidents who didn’t know what they were doing.

It was the dumb central bankers who didn’t know what they were doing and that basically created a global financial system that won’t correct these huge imbalances in capital and trade flows. It’s leading to a point of unsustainability and eventual crisis.

Whether President Trump knows it or not, in the guise of pursuit of MAGA [Make America Great Again], he is shaking the Red Ponzi to the core, and I think it’s very fragile.

The whole global economy is really dependent on China piling even more debt onto the $40 trillion pile they already have. Trump’s trade war is basically an economic cruise missile barrage aimed right at that gargantuan pile of unsupportable debt.

Therefore, I think there are very troubling times ahead.

International Man: What developments do you expect in 2020 that could lead to a crisis?

David Stockman: They’re all interrelated. How many times does the stock market rally because there was some type of TV headline about a trade deal? In fact, there is one every other day.

It’s going to become damn clear that there’s no fundamental trade deal, just an unstable truce. It’s going to become apparent that there is an ongoing deep, destructive war, not just on trade, but on technology, the whole military-political spectrum that has been unleashed and exacerbated by Trump’s trade policies.

It has very negative implications for the future—economically and otherwise.

The so-called “phase one” deal doesn’t amount to a hill of beans.

The $50 billion of farm exports, for example, is a complete pipe dream. But say China is going to buy $25 billion of our products by 2021. That’s where we started four years ago, and it’s way below the all-time peak of $28 billion back in 2013.

How’s that a deal?

All the other issues have been deferred.

China says they won’t manipulate their currency. But everybody in the world manipulates their fiat currency, and central banks are constantly doing that.

If this flimsy phase one deal actually gets signed, it’ll become evident to the market and the robo traders that this isn’t the end of a threat to future prosperity. It’s just a sign that this is going to be ongoing and will get bigger and more disruptive as time goes on.

They may get what they wish, which is a trade deal. That deal will only crystallize the fact that we’re in a world that’s coming apart at the seams, in terms of the global trading system and financial and capital flows.

International Man: What is your view on the future of the US dollar? Does that outlook change depending on the results of the 2020 election?

David Stockman: Trump is simply demanding that the Fed become more aggressive in the race to the bottom.

That’s dangerous, it’s destructive, it’s stupid.

Also, you’re competing with the likes of the ECB [European Central Bank], which now, has a new leader, Christine Lagarde, who is even crazier than was Draghi when it comes to money printing. And competing with Japan, which is basically drowning its economy with money printing.

The Bank of Japan’s balance sheet is 100% of GDP. It’s out of this world.

People don’t know, in historic times—and by that I mean anything before 1990—the balance sheets of central banks tended to be 2–4% of GDP. Now we’re in a totally different world.

If the US wants to compete with the BOJ [Bank of Japan] or the ECB or the people’s printing press of China, then go ahead, but you’ll never win. It’s a race to the bottom.

That is the real issue.

It’s not going to happen only to the US dollar; it’s what’s going to happen to the fiat currencies, generally. They’re all run by Keynesian central bankers. I think they’re all going to fall apart.

Fiat currencies are heading for a demise, because they’re based on principles and predicates that are, one, stupid, and, two, unsustainable over a long period of time.

We’re soon going to find that out.

International Man: What are your views on gold’s future in the international monetary system?

David StockmanGold is the enemy of the state.

Central banks are creatures of the state. They are agents, instruments of Leviathan.

Leviathan will fight—to the bitter end—any increase in gold’s role in the global economy or monetary system.

It will materialize only if there is a complete existential crisis and the whole central banking system breaks down and the world has to put itself back together.

 

Some people will recognize that one element of the reset and revamping needs to be the anchor that kept the monetary system stable for several centuries before 1971—which is gold.

That is a possibility, but how do you get from here to there?

The answer is a devastating crisis that is so powerful and destructive that the philosophy that drives everything today is completely discredited.

That’s pretty severe. It’s a valley of death that you don’t necessarily want to hazard, but it’s the only way to get from here to sound money, unfortunately.

International Man: The central banks of China, Russia, Turkey, and several European countries are buying massive amounts of gold. What do you think this means?

David Stockman: I think they’re hedging.

I think that intelligent people can see that this system of balance sheet expansion and interest rate repression—and $17 trillion in bonds trading with sub-zero yields a few months ago—isn’t sustainable.

Some central banks at least are trying to hedge their bets by reallocating their balance sheet to have a larger share of gold. As the crisis of what I call “Keynesian central banking” becomes more and more intensive and acute, more central banks will be buying gold.

Gold has a small trading value, or market cap, compared to something like a trillion dollars that turns over in the repo market every day. Or the five trillion dollars a day that turns over in the currency markets. Gold is a minor player, compared to that.

If central banks begin to really stock up on gold, what’s going to happen is people will try to front run them.

This is the whole secret of what’s been ongoing for the last 20 years in other markets. The reason bond yields have gone to rock bottom is the central banks have been buying the bonds. So, the smart traders are buying what the central banks are buying.

If the central banks are going to start buying gold, the same guys who have been buying the 10-year Treasuries or Bunds are going to start buying gold, and it’ll soar. The same way that bond prices have in last few years.

In other words, the world is awash with massive artificial liquidity created by the central banks. It’s in the hands of traders, who move in split-second intervals and attempt to leverage anything that looks like it’s going up. Especially if they can put it on leverage that costs nothing.

Maybe the next chapter is the whole system becomes unwound and the banks start buying more gold, and the front runners start buying more gold, and the price begins to multiply by breathtaking rates.

end

*  *  *

Fed Considering Lending Cash Directly To Hedge Funds In Next Repo Market Crisis

At the beginning of December, the Bank of International Settlements, presented a formerly unknown explanation for the September repocalypse, one which in addition to a sharp drop in liquidity by the “Top 4” banks, was amplified by an imbalance in demand for repo by hedge funds: “High demand for secured (repo) funding from non-financial institutions, such as hedge funds heavily engaged in leveraging up relative value trades,” was a key factor behind the chaos, said Claudio Borio, head of the monetary and economic department at the BIS.

The BIS’s finding was novel, and surprising, as it highlighted the “growing clout of hedge funds in the repo market” which in retrospect is to be expected: as we noted over a year ago, hedge funds such as Millennium, Citadel and Point 72 are not only active in the repo market, they are also the most heavily leveraged multi-strat funds in the world, taking something like $20-$30 billion in net AUM and levering it up to $200 billion. They achieve said leverage using repo.

In short, and as shown in the chart above, some of the world’s biggest hedge funds are active in the repo market to boost their returns. The problem is what happens when repo rates get unhinged as happened on September 16: for the best example of how market players react when their underlying correlations go tilt, look no further than what happened to LTCM in 1998.

This also explains why the Fed panicked in response to the GC repo rate blowing out to 10% on Sept 16, and instantly implemented repos as well as rushed to launch QE 4: not only was Fed Chair Powell facing an LTCM like situation, but because the repo-funded arb was (ab)used by most multi-strat funds, the Federal Reserve was suddenly facing a constellation of multiple LTCM blow-ups that could have started an avalanche that would have resulted in trillions of assets being forcefully liquidated as a tsunami of margin calls hit the hedge funds world.

So with hedge funds now emerging as the weakest market transmission link in any future repo market flare up, the Fed has to act, and sure enough, as the WSJ reports, in order to minimize risk during any and all upcoming repo market crises, Fed officials are considering a new tool to ease repo market stress: namely bypassing the existing system entirelyand lending cash directly to smaller banks, securities dealers and hedge funds through the repo market’s clearinghouse, the Fixed Income Clearing Corp., or FICC.

How is this different from the current system?

Well, as the BIS explained last month, hedge funds currently borrow through a process called sponsored repo, in which a large bank effectively act as a middleman or guarantor, pairing their government bonds with money-market funds willing to lend cash. The bank then guarantees that the parties will fulfill their obligations—repaying the cash or returning the securities. In the new proposal, firms trading through the FICC, would contribute to a fund that would cover a borrower’s default. However, as the WSJ notes, critics of the new plan say if the Fed lends cash directly through the clearinghouse, it could end up contributing to a hedge-fund bailout.

Which, of course is moot: when the Fed stepped in to launch repos for the first time since the crisis in September, followed by QE4 in October, bailing out hedge funds (in addition to banks, and prop desks, such as JPMorgan’s) is precisely what it did then goo. It is also hardly surprising that following the massive liquidity injection in October that continues to this day, that stocks have soared in what is virtually a straight line.

Yet while the former regime is so convolulted only a few individuals, and the BIS, get it, the new approach makes the Fed’s backstop of hedge funds far more explicit, and could also political problems for policy makers. The problem, as the WSJ notes, “centers on the central bank lending directly to hedge funds”, which already only cater to ultra high net worth clients. 

Are they really the ones that so desperately need a bailout when the next crisis hits?

It doesn’y really matter because hedge fund leverage is now so intertwined with the repo market, any bailout of the banks or the financial system, also explicitly bails out hedge funds, even though “some fear that lending directly to hedge funds could lead to the perception the Fed is fueling risky bets.”

“There’s a strong aversion to fat cat bailouts,” said Glenn Havlicek, chief executive of GLMX, which provides technology to repo trading desks. Actually, Glenn, that’s news to us: the Fed did just such a bailout in September, and nobody said or thing, or noticed. Perhaps because the pathway that leads from repo to markets to hedge funds is so complex that nobody actually gets it.

Furthermore, as the WSJ notes, many, if not a vast majority, of hedge funds trade in the cash market through sponsored repos. The clearinghouse sits between buyers and sellers to ensure that neither party backs out of the transaction. Records of cleared trades also are publicly available, improving the market’s transparency.

 

The idea of using the clearinghouse appeals to some investors and analysts because the Fed has had trouble getting cash into the hands of the smaller banks, securities dealers and investors who need it the most. That is because the Fed trades exclusively with a small group of large banks and securities firms, known as primary dealers. Even among these firms, activity is tightly concentrated. A study recently published by the Bank for International Settlements said that liquidity in the repo market rests in the hands of the four largest banks in the U.S. system.

Incidentally, clearinghouses are also what Horseman’s Russell Clark believes will be the weakest link during the next crisis, and is how the market crash will spread (as we discussed last month). It may also explain why the Fed is quietly tiptoeing to directly backstopping clearinghouses, as it realizes that while it may backstop every bank, unless it can also save the linkages between them, the system is still in trouble.

Of course, if hedge funds at least used the repo funding for some noble, original purposes, that could at least put some favorable spin on this debate. Alas, hedge funds mostly use the borrowed repo funds just to boost leverage and increase potential gains from investments, as shown in the top chart.  Of course, such leverage can also magnify losses. And while policy makers typically haven’t encouraged the use of levered investment strategies, the wide availability of repo has made it the preferred means for hedge funds to leverage up as much as 10x.

Finally, as the WSJ correctly notes, some investors say the connections between firms involved with sponsored repos make the distinction between lending to one or the other meaningless.  Gang Hu, a hedge-fund manager at WinShore Capital Partners, said he borrows cash in the repo market to increase the impact of his investments in Treasury-bond futures and other interest-rate products.

“They are reluctant to provide a tool that would allow” overall leverage to increase beyond current levels, Mr. Hu said. “The system cannot work without leverage, but a system with too much leverage is unstable.”

And since we are now deep inside the “too much leverage” phase, the only option for the Fed is to quietly come in and backstop every repo market player, including the billionaires that get richer by the year simply be levering up on the Fed’s ongoing liquidity injections in the stock market.

END

Once February begins, the Fed will try and wean our hedge funds from the TERM repo money by 5 billion dollars. Each Term will be cut from $35 billion down to $30. billion.  This is temporary loans. However the Fed will still provide permanent money operations to add liquidity so hour hedge funds will still have access to money

(zerohedge)

Repo Shrinkage Begins In February: That’s When Fed Cuts Each Term Repo By $5 Billion

With everyone (grudgingly or otherwise) now admitting that the Fed’s repo and QE4 was responsible for the miraculous surge in stocks since the start of Q4 2019, traders were especially focused on today’s release of the next monthly schedule of repo operations to see if the Fed would, as Powell hinted, start reducing the liquidity injection via repo. And sure enough, that’s precisely what happened when the NY Fed announced that starting February, the term repo, which had been kept constant at a level of $35 billion since mid-December, would be reduced by $5 billion to $30 billion for every new term repo.

As shown in the latest schedule below, the New York Fed announced that overnight repos would remain at their prior limit of “at least $120 billion”, but it was the term repos where the Fed confirmed that the massive liquidity glut triggered by JPMorgan the Sept repo crisis would finally being to taper, starting with the Feb 4 two-week term repo, which would decline from $35BN to $30BN.

In the aggregate this is a modest drop, reducing overall liquidity by just $20 BN over the month of February as existing repos roll into smaller operations, but assuming there are no incidents, one assumes that in March (and then April, and May), the shrinkage will continue apace, with the total amount declining by a similar or greater amount.

 

Of course, on net the total liquidity will actually increase as in February the Fed will inject at least $60BN in liquidity via T-Bill monetizations courtesy of “NOT QE 4”, and then another $60BN in March, then April and so on. In other words, while the Fed confirmed a modest repo shrinkage starting in two weeks, this will be more than offset by permanent open market operations which will see the Fed continuing to grow its balance sheet, in the words of UBS, “indefinitely.”

END

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Another joke:  The New York Times claims Russian Hackers successfully “breached” Busima. the Security firm that detected the breach are democrat donors and have ties to Crowdstrike

(zerohedge)

Here Comes Wikigate 2: NYT Claims Russian Hackers Successfully “Breached” Burisma

Color us skeptical, alt-right, conspiracy-wonk, Putin-puppets; but the transparency and timing of tonight’s “bombshell” report from The New York Times of an ‘alleged’ hacking by ‘allegedly’ Russian hackers of Burisma – the Ukrainian energy firm that VP Biden’s crack-smoking, energy-ignorant son was paid $50,000 per month as a board member – reeks so strongly of foundational narrative-building for something “embarrassing” that is coming, it is stunning just how dumb the deep state must think the American public really is. Actually, maybe not all that stunning.

According to Area 1, the Silicon Valley security firm that detected the hacking, Russian hackers from a military intelligence unit known formerly as the G.R.U., and to private researchers by the alias “Fancy Bear,” used so-called phishing emails that appear designed to steal usernames and passwords, to gain access to Burisma’s network.

 

Oren Falkowitz, a co-founder of Area 1, and previously a hacker at the National Security Agency, proclaimed in the report that “the attacks were successful,” even though it is unknown what the alleged hackers were attempting to discover.

The timing of the Russian campaign mirrors the G.R.U. hacks we saw in 2016 against the D.N.C. and John Podesta,” the Clinton campaign chairman, Mr. Falkowitz said.

“Once again, they are stealing email credentials, in what we can only assume is a repeat of Russian interference in the last election.”

As The Mercury News reported, over the summer, Area 1 persuaded the Federal Election Commission to allow it to provide low-cost services to political campaigns, which would typically be a violation of rules designed to prevent businesses from currying political favor.

Additionally, and coming as no surprise to many, Mr. Falkowitz is a significant donor to Democrats; and even more intriguing, the company’s CSO – Blacke Darche – also worked at the NSA and most notably, Crowdstrike.

While NYT admits it is not yet clear what the hackers found, or precisely what they were searching for, that did not stop them speculating, based on more anonymous sources.

The Times, citing an American security official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence, claiming – without any proof – that the Russian attacks on Burisma appear to be running parallel to an effort by Russian spies in Ukraine to dig up information in the analog world that could embarrass the Bidens. The spies, the official said, are trying to penetrate Burisma and working sources in the Ukrainian government in search of emails, financial records and legal documents.

So-called “experts” reportedly claim the timing and scale of the attacks suggest that the Russians could be searching for potentially embarrassing material on the Bidens – the same kind of information that Mr. Trump wanted from Ukraine when he pressed for an investigation of the Bidens and Burisma, setting off a chain of events that led to his farcical impeachment.

All sounds very sinister!

The New York Times, thoughtfully asks Andrew Bates, a spokesman for the Biden campaign, what his thoughts are on the entirely unfounded story. His response is unsurprising to say the least…

“Donald Trump tried to coerce Ukraine into lying about Joe Biden and a major bipartisan, international anti-corruption victory because he recognized that he can’t beat the vice president.”

“Now we know that Vladimir Putin also sees Joe Biden as a threat.”

“Any American president who had not repeatedly encouraged foreign interventions of this kind would immediately condemn this attack on the sovereignty of our elections.”

Oh we are sure Putin is terrified of Biden!?

And the icing on the cake from the New York Times reporters, to ensure the dumbfounded reader is completely clear on what just happened (without any shadow of a doubt)..

 

The Russian tactics are strikingly similar to what American intelligence agencies say was Russia’s hacking of emails from Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman and the Democratic National Committee during the 2016 presidential campaign. In that case, once they had the emails, the Russians used trolls to spread and spin the material, and built an echo chamber to widen its effect.

Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes true?

So, what are the Democrats preparing for? Another round of embarrassing leaked emails – Wikigate 2.0? And this story is designed to plant the seed that anyone who releases any of the “hacked” emails – which may or may not expose crimes by the Bidens (or Pelosis) is a Russian agent and must be shunned, censored, and generally disavowed by any and all Western media.

Or, you could choose to believe that the Russians – who allegedly were so dumb last time as to make it obvious it was them doing the hacking – have done it again… following the same pattern, and getting caught in their “meddling”? Oh wait, they have answer for that ‘conspiracy theory’ – that Russian hackers are “lazy”…

“The Burisma hack is a cookie-cutter G.R.U. campaign,” Mr. Falkowitz said.

Russian hackers, as sophisticated as they are, also tend to be lazy. They use what works. And in this, they were successful.”

Which is odd. Given how terrified every establishment type was at the thought of Iranians hacking America’s most sensitive infrastructure in the last week, one might think that well-trained Russian hackers would be a little more adept. But then again, anyone who chooses to not believe the NYT story hook, line, and sinker – is clearly a puppet of Putin.

end

The Democrats are demanding witnesses.  However they do not want toe Republicans to call Hunter Biden and/or Joe Biden as witnesses as the Republicans will rip them to shreads.

(Jonathan Turley)

Courting Disaster? The Democrats Are Demanding Witnesses With One Notable Exception

Authored by Jonathan Turley via JonathanTurley.org,

The Democratic leaders may soon learn the wisdom of Oscar Wilde’s warning that “when the gods wish to punish us they answer our prayers.”

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has so far delayed the submission of the impeachment of President Trump to the Senate to force a trial with witnesses. Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) has declared any trial of Trump without witnesses to be nothing less than the “most unfair impeachment trial in modern history.” Leaders of both parties know that impeachment often boils down to one unpredictable element: witnesses.

For those who have the votes, witnesses are an unnecessary risk. For those who don’t, they are an absolute necessity.

 

On Friday, Schumer insisted that “there is only one precedent that matters here: that never, never in the history of our country, has there been an impeachment trial of the president where the Senate was denied the ability to hear from witnesses.”

Put another way, Schumer does not have the votes and thus needs the witnesses. Schumer now wants to hear from the witnesses who never testified before the House, which rushed through an impeachment without seeking to compel testimony from key officials. One of those, former national security adviser John Bolton, said Monday he would testify before the Senate if subpoenaed.

In the Clinton impeachment trial 21 years ago, Schumer and the Democrats opposed hearing from witnesses. In that impeachment chapter, the Democrats had the votes. Lacking the votes this time, the unpredictability of witnesses now appeals to Schumer and his party. But only up to a point. Schumer has opposed the suggested Republican witnesses as a mere “distraction.”

One witness in particular could prove not just a distraction but a disaster: Hunter Biden.

In a conventional trial, Biden would be a relevant defense witness. Biden’s testimony would have bearing on a key question in an abuse-of-power trial. Trump insists that he raised the issue of Hunter Biden’s relationship with a Ukrainian energy firm to the Ukrainian president as part of an overall concern he had about ongoing corruption in that country. If that contract with the son of a former vice president could be shown to be a corrupt scheme to advance the interests of a foreign company or country, it might be Trump’s best defense.

Under Federal Rule of Evidence 401, courts will often review possible testimony under the standard of whether “it has a tendency to make a fact more or less probable than it would be without the evidence.”  Even before the adoption of the Bill of Rights, Congress enacted a statute reaffirming the right of the “defense to make any proof that he can produce by lawful witnesses” in cases of treason and capitol cases.  This right to present a defense has been repeatedly reaffirmed by the Supreme Court including in the 1967 opinion in Washington v. Texas, where the Court ruled that “the right to offer the testimony of witnesses and to compel their attendance, if necessary, is in plain terms the right to present the defense, the right to present the defendant’s version of the facts  . . . Just as an accused has the right to confront the prosecution’s witnesses for the purpose of challenging their testimony, he has the right to present his own witnesses to establish a defense.”

Trump’s position is that he did not arbitrarily ask a country to investigate a possible political rival. Had Trump called for an investigation into Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-Mass.) husband, for example, without a scintilla of proof of corruption, it would be entirely indefensible. However, the Biden contract was so openly corrupt it would have made Jack Abramoff blush. Even in the United States, lobbyists and companies will often give family members undeserved lucrative jobs and contracts to curry favor with powerful politicians. Overseas, it is standard operating procedure. Oleksandr Onyshchenko, a businessman and former member of the Ukrainian parliament, said Biden was made a director “to protect (the company)” from investigation by U.S. and Ukrainian officials. Even Hunter Biden admitted that the position was given to him because of his father. Hunter Biden was paid at least $50,000 a month and possibly more.

Biden stepped down from the Burisma board only when his father announced his candidacy in April 2019. Ukraine assured Trump that it was cracking down on corruption when, just a few months earlier, Biden had been receiving monthly retainers from Burisma.

If the Biden contract was an ongoing corrupt effort to secure influence and money from the United States, Trump’s reference to it in a discussion of corruption has a possible public purpose. While one can certainly conclude that self-dealing by the president is a plausible explanation, there is no question that the testimony of Biden would be relevant.

 

Schumer knows that neither Biden nor his contract will show well under the glare of a public impeachment trial. In addition to his glaring lack of relevant experience, the younger Biden has a checkered history – from drug addiction to being thrown out of the Naval Reserve – that would have led most companies to avoid him. The trial might also force the public to consider Joe Biden’s failure to ask about his son’s dubious foreign dealings. Joe Biden himself seems delusional in claiming, “No one has said my son did anything wrong.”

For the Democrats, witnesses are a dangerous game. The worse that Hunter Biden looks, the better Trump looks in raising the contract. That is the problem with asking for witnesses in a Senate trial. They can take you to places you might prefer not to go.

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the chair of Public Interest Law at George Washington University and served as the last lead counsel in an impeachment trial before the Senate in defense of Judge G. Thomas Porteous Jr.

end

something that we must be watchful over:

(tom Luongo)

“The Flying Monkeys Have Taken Over The Asylum” – Impeachment, Soleimani, & The Pull Of The Swamp

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

The day Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced she would open up impeachment proceedings against President Trump I called it a coupIt was obvious to me then and more obvious to me today that we are headed to a dangerous place (a dangerous place).

Trump’s impeachment trial in the Senate begins next week and it’s clear that this will not be a walk in the park for the President. Anyone dismissing this because the Republicans hold the Senate simply do not understand why this impeachment exists in the first place.

 

It is the ultimate form of leverage over a President whose desire to end the wars in the Middle East is anathema to the entrenched powers in the D.C. Swamp.

This is what I said back in September:

The Democrats would not be pushing for this if they didn’t think they have the votes in the House and the Senate to get this done. Ignore the conventional wisdom on this. They were wrong in the UK.[about the courts upholding Johnson proroguing Parliament]

They will be wrong here, unless Trump has something else up his sleeve.

His removing John Bolton and refusal to attack Iran is driving the neoconservatives to apoplexy. They want their holy war against the apostate Shi’ites and they will get it. Mike Pence will be their avatar until such time as he can be removed through a sham election in 2020.

If this wasn’t the case they wouldn’t be risking what’s left of their political future defending a senile old man, Joe Biden, who they don’t actually want to be the candidate anyway.

It’s a coup folks.

Take this one step farther. You don’t start this process if you aren’t going to use what it gives you. Thinking only in terms of the Democrats’ horrific slate of challengers to Trump betrays the myopia of most political analysts.

They see things, wrongly, in terms of partisanship. This isn’t primarily about Democrat v. Republican. This isn’t even just about Clinton v. Trump and a temper tantrum.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Many believe that by the Senate giving credence to a trial based on the no evidence, no crime, read the transcripts, “no pressure” Impeachment Hoax, rather than an outright dismissal, it gives the partisan Democrat Witch Hunt credibility that it otherwise does not have. I agree!

And you have to ask yourself the question why would Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell go along with a real trial unless the fix was in?

Because, as Trump rightly points out, he’s got the approval rating nationally and within his own party. He’s a lock for re-election. So, given the clear unconstitutionality of these impeachment articles (which I discussed previously) why is this even still a thing?

Because Trump is going to be taken out.

The events of the past twelve days since Trump murdered IRGC General Qassem Soleimani prove this beyond any doubt. Impeachment was the leverage point to drive open a wedge between Republicans and Trump through Iran.

Pelosi slow-walking the articles of impeachment to the Senate was all part of the pantomime, folks. She gets what she wants: Congress asserting more power and the Democrats shoring up their base by taking out an eyesore in Trump.

She waits just long enough for Trump to do something questionable and for it to be made known publicly.

The neocons in the Senate get what they want — further escalation of pressure on Iran with the hope of destroying them. Moreover, they prove to Trump, Israel, the MIC and the world that they are still fully in charge of U.S. foreign policy.

The Swamp Strikes Back and puts Trump in a no-win situation.

The Wall St. Journal article from this weekend which intimated that Trump made the decision to kill Soleimani was motivated by shoring up his support in the Israeli Occupied Senate is further proof.

“Mr. Trump, after the strike, told associates he was under pressure to deal with Gen. Soleimani from GOP senators he views as important supporters in his coming impeachment trial in the Senate, associates said,” the newspaper reported.

It’s not like Trump hasn’t let missiles fly to appease the Neocons in the past. He did it with the bombing of the Al Shairat airbase in Syria back in April of 2017. Remember, that was the night the MSM and Congress declared Trump suitably “Presidential.”

Then he did it again four months later, doubling our presence in Afghanistan in the hopes of getting Obamacare repealed. Oh, by the way, Lindsey Graham reneged on that deal.

Secretary of Defense Mark Esper doing the Sunday talk show circuit to throw the President under the bus about his intelligence seals the deal.

Ryan Goodman

@rgoodlaw

What an astoundingly embarrassing “defense” of President Trump’s claim of bomb threats to four embassies.

“What the President said was he believed it probably could have been. He didn’t cite intelligence.”

– Defense Secretary Mark Esper

Embedded video

Now Pelosi wants to add more charges to the docket and McConnell is going for a trial, when he should just outright dismiss these charges. I told you that this all comes down to McConnell and how he handles the terms of the trial.

He sets the table for this. And if he’s not tilting it in Trump’s favor, Donald is right to be worried.

Trump’s killing Soleimani gives them plenty of cover to do so. His lack of consistency in defending the act will be used against him. That’s why Esper told the world Trump didn’t have proof of an imminent threat.

So, Trump, often his own worst enemy, then defends himself by saying Soleimani just needed killin’.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The Fake News Media and their Democrat Partners are working hard to determine whether or not the future attack by terrorist Soleimani was “imminent” or not, & was my team in agreement. The answer to both is a strong YES., but it doesn’t really matter because of his horrible past!

It’s all being stage-managed by a nearly rogue Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and facilitated through Lindsey Graham. The events that led up to Iran’s missile attack on our bases in Iraq should not be taken at face value.

Killing one U.S. oil contractor does not justify attacks on five PMU bases ringing the Iraqi/Syrian border crossing between Al Qaim and Al Bukamai.

It certainly doesn’t necessitate taking the conflict all the way to the point of Iran firing missiles at our airbases in Iraq.

Don’t think for a second that if Graham feels Trump isn’t sufficiently controlled at this point that he won’t, in the end, wring his hands and vote for his removal from office because the President’s decision-making skills are questionable.

If the Swamp truly wants Trump removed from office then this impeachment trial is their best chance of getting that done. At this point we have a handful of open Republican turncoats. Swelling that number to twenty in the Senate is not that hard.

 

Remember, twenty is a helluva lot smaller than the millions of voters that would have to turn against Trump to elect Hillary Clinton waiting in the wings to emerge from a brokered Democratic convention this summer.

That’s what’s fundamentally wrong with representative forms of government.

And even then, Pence v. Clinton would be a close affair because of the deep divisions within the electorate and Hillary’s fundamental evil. Either way, the Swamp wins.

Nothing happens in D.C. that doesn’t become a weapon in these people’s hands.

To think Pelosi wouldn’t use this to its fullest is terminally naive. To think Trump is savvy enough to see the game board in all its complexity having not one truly loyal staff (or family) member is also naive.

To think McConnell is anything more than an order-taker from those above him is the height of naivete.

I give Trump credit for navigating things to this point and keeping the violence to a minimum, but if he’s going to go down, he better be prepared to go scorched earth in the process.

It’s his only chance at survival and fulfilling even one of his many campaign promises.

Either way, the U.S. electorate will not stand for removing Trump over this. And they shouldn’t. I may be angry with Trump for his recent actions, but this impeachment is the height of lunacy. And when something this ludicrous goes this far, it means the fix is in.

The Flying Monkeys have taken over the asylum. The existence of this trial is itself an inflection point in history.

The rest is just a chase scene.

*  *  *

Join my Patreon if you support honest analysis of world events and their effect on capital markets Install the Brave Browser to begin clawing back our right to speak freely about them

END

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Well that is all for today

I will see you Wednesday night.

 

 

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