JAN 15//GOLD UP $9.55 TO $1553.60//SILVER UP 21 CENTS TO $1796//HUGE ISSUANCE OF EX.FOR PHYSICALS IN BOTH GOLD/SILVER//USA AND CHINA SIGN PHASE ONE FOR THEIR TRADE DEAL AND THEN TRUMP WANTS MORE RESTRICTIONS ON HUAWEI PRODUCTS//EUROPE TRIGGERS “DISPUTE MECHANISM” ON THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL WHICH MAY LEAD TO INCREASED SANCTIONS BY EUROPEANS ON IRAN: ROUHANI THOROUGHLY ANNOYED AND VOWED REVENGE//FLYNN WITHDRAWS HIS GUILTY PLEA//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1553.60 UP $9.55    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.96 UP 21 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

 

Gold :  $1556.25

 

silver:  $18.00

 

 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 0/1

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 01/14/2020 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 01/14/2020
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:15:02
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,542.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/14/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 01/16/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 1 1
MONTH TO DATE: 2,540

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN CONTRACT: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 100 OZ (0.00312 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  2540 NOTICES FOR 254000 OZ  (7.90046 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JAN

 

 

20 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 100,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 483 for  2,015,000 oz

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 8781 DOWN $31 

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 8744 DOWN $69

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 428 CONTRACTS FROM 235,067 DOWN TO 234,639 DESPITE OUR LARGE 23 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  1644 AND MAY: 0 AND DEC: 75 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1719 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1719 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1719 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 8.595 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 23 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

2.03     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN JAN

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 23 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED 1291 CONTRACTS. OR 6.4555 MILLION OZ…..

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JAN:

14,983 CONTRACTS (FOR 10 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 14,983 CONTRACTS) OR 74.92 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1498 CONTRACTS OR 7.490 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN:  74.92 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 9.47% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          74.92   MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 74.92 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 428, DESPITE THE  23 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /TUESDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1719 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA)

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED  SIZED: 1291 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1719 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 428 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 23 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.75 // TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.177 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 168% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JAN MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 20 NOTICE(S) FOR 100,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018.  AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN: 2,030,000  OZ
  2.  THE  RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 1078 CONTRACTS TO 796,883 COMING CLOSE TO OUR NEW  RECORD (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. 

THE GOOD RISE IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE A STRONG LOSS OF  $5.00 IN PRICING  ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY// / 

 

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 5170 CONTRACTS:

JAN 2020: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB>  7053 CONTRACTS APRIL: 980; DEC. 00 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 796,883,.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG BUT CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9111 CONTRACTS: 1078 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 8023 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 9111 CONTRACTS OR 911,100 OZ OR 28.33 TONNES.  TUESDAY WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF $5.00 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND DESPITE THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 28.33  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (DOWN $5.00) THEY WERE TOTALLY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO  FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD OUR HUGE GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (28.33 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER.

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN SILVER AS THEY MORPH INTO GOLD AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE FEBRUARY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR GOLD:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF JAN. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN : 84,268 CONTRACTS OR 8,426,800 oz OR 262.10 TONNES (10 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8427 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 262.10 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 262.10/3550 x 100% TONNES =7.38% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     262.10  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 262.20 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 1078 DESPITE THE STRONG  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK TUESDAY($5.00)) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 8033 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 8033 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A STRONG  AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 9111 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

8033 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 1078 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 28.33 TONNES). ..AND THIS  INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE THE STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $5.00 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING//RAID// AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

 

WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

 

JAN 15/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 874.52 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

SLV/

 

 

WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

 

 

JAN 15/INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 424 CONTRACTS from 235,067 DOWN TO 234,639 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW COMEX RECORD.  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

 

EFP ISSUANCE 1719

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  1644:  AND MAY: 0; DEC: 75 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1719 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 484  CONTRACTS TO THE 1719 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD GAIN OF 1291 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:6.4555 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 2.03 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 23 CENT LOSS GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1719 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.78 POINTS OR 0.54%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 111.55 POINTS OR 0.39%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 108.59 POINTS OR 0.45%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .50%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8879 /Oil DOWN TO 58.36 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8879 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8920 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

i)CHINA

A good look at China’s momentum as new data suggests that its GDP growth is only 4.7%

(zerohedge)

ii)This is a good outline as to what Phase one of the trade deal will look like

(zerohedge)

iii)Bond yields just be rising and they are not as the bond players are just not buying this deal with China.  The yuan is rising but it must break through 6.83 if the deal is “real”

(Breslow/Bloomberg)

iv)The biggest winners and losers of the trade deal

(zerohedge)

v)Trump continues on the warpath against Huawei as they want to block more sales. And this was said right after they signed phase one of the trade deal(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)GERMANY

Powerhouse Germany’s auto sector has announced that that it will cut 400,000 jobs during the next decade as car production crashes

(zerohedge)

ii)GERMANY

Germany records its slowest economic growth in 6 years
(zerohedge)

iii)EUROPE/IRAN

Europe is still whistling “Dixie” dealing with Iran.  They have how formally triggered the “dispute mechanism” and we now await to see if Europe imposes sanctions on Iran.  The hope is that Iran comes to the table but without the uSA this is hopeless.
(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAN/USA/IRAQ

Not sure who fired the Katyusha rockets into a USA base in Iraq.  It could be the remnants of an ISIS cell or it could be Iran)

(courtesy zerohedge)

iiTurkey

Turkey is still the world’s worst jailers of journalists and thus free speech is out the window in that country

(courtesy Gatestone)

iii)RUSSIA

Russia unexpectedly finds that its government and it is all of the government resigned as Putin plans for drastic constitutional changes which will give him more power
(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Germany has lowered the amount of gold that one can buy anonymously

(Ronan Manly)

ii)A good commentary today from Dave Kranzler as he outlines how the Fed is monetizing everything to keep the financial system fro imploding

(Dave Kranzler/IRD)

iii)Another good one today from Stefan Gleason.  He comments that China is a currency manipulator but not in the way you would normally think.  They are keeping their currency relatively higher than it ought to be.  The real manipulator is our banking system as they manipulate our precious metals.

(Stefan Gleason/Monetary Metals)

iv)Craig Hemke on “real” gold vs “fake” gold

(Craig Hemke)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

With inflation ripping higher the expectation was for producer prices to rise. It tumbled to the weakest level since 2016.

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Bricks and mortar operations continue to weaken. We now witness shopping mall vacancies have just hit a two decade high

(zerohedge)

b)With the rise in the mandatory $15 dollar minimum wage, it is no wonder that half of all USA restaurants are struggling.

(zerohedge)

c)With the economy slowly the Trump administration is now hinting at a further tax cut to stimulate growth

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)This is good;  General Mike Flynn withdraws his guilty plea due to government’s bad faith and breach of their plea agreement

(zerohedge)

b)Pelosi announces her 7 house managers for Trump impeachment.  The Senate does not have the 51 votes to dismiss the case.  Thus the trial begins

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY GOOD SIZED 1078 CONTRACTS TO 796,883 AND CLOSE TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  THE CONSIDERABLE GAIN IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $5.00 IN GOLD PRICING // TUESDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 8033 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 7053  AND APRIL: 980,  DEC 00 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 8033 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG AND  CRIMINALLY SIZED 9111 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 8033 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 1078 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD.  THE BANKERS WERSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL BY $5.00). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED  9111 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES…..DESPITE THE STRONG LOSS

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  9111 CONTRACTS OR 911,100 OZ OR 28.33 TONNES.  

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  796,883 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 79.69 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,478 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,478/2200 OR 112.6% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

We are now in the   NON active contract month of JAN.  This month is generally one of the poorest of delivery months for the year.  Here we have a total of 29 open interest left to be served upon, for a LOSS of 1 contracts.   We had 2 notices served up on yesterday so we surprisingly gained another 1 contracts or an additional 100 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of January. I can now safely say that the comex is under attack for metal!!

The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed a LOSS OF 14,700 in contracts DOWN to 419,068.  

March received another 240 contracts to stand at an open interest of 976.

The next active delivery month after March is April and here we witnessed a gain of 13,663 contacts up to 248,163 oi contracts.

We had 1 open interest notices served upon today for 100 oz

the front month of February is not contracting enough and thus it seems we will have another strong amount of gold standing for delivery

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY SMALL SIZED 424 CONTRACTS FROM 235,067 UP TO 234,639 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND OUR SMALL  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED DESPITE A STRONG 23 CENT LOSS IN PRICING/YESTERDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

Here we have a GAIN of 13 contracts TO  23. We had 2 notices served on yesterday, so we gained 15 contracts or an additional 75,000 oz will stand for delivery during this non active delivery month of January. Silver along with gold are under attack for metal!! Our bankers have their work cut out for them.

 

 

 

After January, we have  the non active month of February and here we saw a LOSS of 8 contracts TO A LEVEL OF  482.  March is a very active month and here we witness a LOSS of 1320 contracts DOWN to 176,750

 

 

We, today, had 20 notice(s) filed for 100,000, OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 329,053 contracts    

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY414,438 contracts

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JAN/GOLD

JAN 15/2020

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
1 notice(s)
 2100 OZ
(0.0031 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
28 contracts
(2800 oz)
0.0871 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2540 notices
253,900 OZ
7.90046 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

 

ii)into

everybody else: 0

 

total deposits:  0  oz

 

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil  oz

ADJUSTMENTS:  0

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  ADDED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE JAN 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2540) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JAN. (29 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz per contract) equals 256,800 OZ OR 7.9875 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JAN

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (2540 x 100 oz)  + 30)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz )which equals 256,800 oz standing OR 7.9875 TONNES in this  NON active delivery month of JAN.

WE GAINED 1 CONTACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 100 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AND THUS REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY REFUSING TO TRAVEL TO LONDON THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 34.11 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    7.9875 TONNES

 

total: 129.879 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 6 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 19.2540 TONNES SETTLED

 

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 129.879  tonnes

 

Thus:

129.879 tonnes of delivery –

19.2540 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 110.622 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 34.017 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,334,232.623 oz or  41.50 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 109,365.15 oz (34.017 tonnes)
b) pledged gold held at HSBC + BRINKS  which cannot settle upon:  240,581.146 oz  ( 7.4668    TONNES)//
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  109,365.15  (34.017 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,707,544.460 oz 270.841 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

JAN 15/2020
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 6872.790 oz
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
20
CONTRACT(S)
(100,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3 contracts
 15,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  4125 contracts

20,625,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 161.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.4% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/319.730 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of Delaware: 6872.79  oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 6872.79   oz

We had 0 adjustment:

 

 

total dealer silver:  84.077 million

total dealer + customer silver:  320.659 million oz

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the JAN 2020. contract month is represented by 20 contract(s) FOR 100,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in  JAN, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 403 x 5,000 oz =2,015,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (23) and the number of notices served upon today 20 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JAN/2019 contract month: 403 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN (23- number of notices served upon today (20) x 5000 oz equals 2,030,000 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month.

WE GAINED 15 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 75,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX AND REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. BY DOING THIS THEY ALSO NEGATED RECEIVING A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 20 notice(s) filed for 100,000 OZ for the JAN, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  73,222 CONTRACTS //

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 95,061 CONTRACTS..

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 95,061 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 475 million  OZ   67.9% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

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NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.43% ((JAN 15/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.54% to NAV (JAN 14/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.43%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.49 TRADING 14.78///DISCOUNT  3,28

 

END

 

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JAN 15/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.6 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.80 TODAY:NA HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.69 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.12 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 9.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.81 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 A GOOD INVENTORY PAPER DEPOSIT OF 0.88 TONNES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.18 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP #15.40 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $24.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONES INTO THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.30

JAN 2/2020//WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $4.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.25 TONNES

DEC 30//WITH GOLD UP $2.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.10 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.51 PAPER TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.37 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.86 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $14.60//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.64 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.29 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.56 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.66 TONNES

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: 1 SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.22 TONNES

DEC 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 13/ WITH GOLD UP $8.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 885.93 TONNES

DEC 10//WITH GOLD UP $3.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $.60: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.34 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 5/2019: WITH GOLD UP $3.60 TODAY: A  SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 4/2019/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

 

DEC 2 /WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

 

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

 

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JAN 15/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 874.52 tonnes

*IN LAST 742 TRADING DAYS: 62.93 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 642 TRADING DAYS: A NET 104.12. TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JAN 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.261 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ//

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.268 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 356.958 MILLION OZ///

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ//

JAN 7.//WITH SILVER UP 23  CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.226 MILLION OZ..

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440 MILLION OZ///

JAN 3/2020//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.440  MILLION OZ///

SINCE DEC 23 WE HAVE HAD A 94 CENT GAIN CORRESPONDING TO A 2.39 MILLION OZ OF PAPER WITHDRAWALS..AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!

JAN 2/2020/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.214 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.616 MILLION OZ

DEC 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 30/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ

DEC  26//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 24/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ///

 

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.028 MILLION PAPER OZ IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.830 MILLION OZ//

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ//

DEC 17//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 747,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.858 MILLION OZ/?

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13//WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 10//WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:  A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.495 MILLION OZ//// INVENTORY RESTS  AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.869 MILLION OZ FROM SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.100 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 5//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 3//WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.512 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ..

DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

 

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

 

 

JAN 15.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

355.697 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.83/ and libor 6 month duration 1.86

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .03

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.84%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.96

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.12

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Germany has lowered the amount of gold that one can buy anonymously

(Ronan Manly)

Ronan Manly: German government escalates its war on gold

 Section: 

11:40a ET Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Germany’s government keeps reducing the threshold for anonymous purchase of monetary metals, Bullion Star research Ronan Manly reports today, noting that in less than three years the limit has fallen from E15,000 to E10,000, and now to E2,000.

The rationale for reducing the threshold, Manly writes, is to thwart money laundering, but parliamentary inquiry caused the German government to admit that it had no evidence for concerns about money laundering with gold and indeed little knowledge of the gold business in Germany.

… 

As the imposition of the latest limit approached, Manly writes, demand for metal at gold shops became overwhelming.

Manly’s report is headlined “German Government Escalates Its War on Gold” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/german-government-escalate…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Toast to a free gold market
with great GATA-label wine

Wine carrying the label of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, cases of which were awarded to three lucky donors in GATA’s recent fundraising campaign, are now available for purchase by the case from Fay J Winery LLC in Texarkana, Texas. Each case has 12 bottles and the cost is $240, which includes shipping via Federal Express.

Here’s what the bottles look like:

http://www.gata.org/files/GATA-4-wine-bottles.jpg

Buyers can compose their case by choosing as many as four varietals from the list here:

http://www.gata.org/files/FayJWineryVarietals.jpg

GATA will receive a commission on each case of GATA-label wine sold. So if you like wine and buy it anyway, why not buy it in a way that supports our work to achieve free and transparent markets in the monetary metals?

To order a case of GATA-label wine, please e-mail Fay J Winery at bagman1236@aol.com.

END

A good commentary today from Dave Kranzler as he outlines how the Fed is monetizing everything to keep the financial system fro imploding

(Dave Kranzler/IRD)

Dave Kranzler: Fed is monetizing everything to keep financial system from collapsing

 Section: 

By Dave Kranzler
Investment Research Dynamics, Denver
Tuesday, January 13, 2020

Gresham’s Law in action: The diminishing availability of physical gold from the market (per several different accounts in London) corresponds to the proliferation of fiat currency printing and paper gold derivatives.

Since September the Fed has increased its balance sheet by $414 billion or 11% in less than four months. It’s the fastest rate at which the Fed has printed money in its history. The Fed insists that this “repo” program is not the reinstatement of “quantitative easing.

..In one sense the Fed is correct. This money-printing program is a direct bailout of the big banks. And now the Fed is proposing to start bailing out hedge funds:

Federal Reserve officials are considering lending cash directly to hedge funds through clearinghouses to ease stress in the repo market. But that could be a tough sell for policy makers.” — The Wall Street Journal.

Yes, liquidity in the interbank overnight collateralized lending system dried up in September. But it’s not because of a shortage of cash to lend. The reason is two-fold. First, banks needed cash/Tier 1 collateral to shore up their own reserves. Why? Because bank assets — especially subprime loans — are starting to melt down — that is, rising delinquencies and defaults. This is provable just by looking at the footnotes in quarterly bank 10-Qs. Second, hedge fund assets — primarily the bottom half of collateralized loan obligations, credit default swaps, leveraged loans — are melting down.

The banks know this because these are the same deteriorating assets held by banks. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-fed-is-going-all-in-to-keep-t…

END

Another good one today from Stefan Gleason.  He comments that China is a currency manipulator but not in the way you would normally think.  They are keeping their currency relatively higher than it ought to be.  The real manipulator is our banking system as they manipulate our precious metals.

(Stefan Gleason/Monetary Metals)

Stefan Gleason: Yes, China is a currency manipulator, and the U.S. banking system is a monetary metals manipulator

 Section: 

By Stefan Gleason
Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho
Tuesday, January 14, 2020

The U.S. Treasury Department announced Monday that China is no longer on a list of countries deemed to be “currency manipulators.” The timing was awfully convenient, coming just ahead of an expected Phase One trade deal between the two powers.

Nobody actually believes China has stopped manipulating the value of its yuan versus the U.S. dollar.

… 

But the Trump administration is apparently willing to accept a certain degree of currency rigging in exchange for other concessions on trade.

It’s not as if the U.S. government has a stellar record when it comes to heeding principles of free and fair currency markets. Through the Exchange Stabilization Fund and other vehicles it is constantly trying to manage the value of the dollar versus the currencies of trading partners too.

It’s not as if equity markets, interest rate markets, and precious metals futures markets are free from manipulation, either. Price rigging schemes of various sorts — ranging from small-scale “spoofing” to large-scale suppression — occur practically around the clock. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2020/01/14/china-manipulating-yuan-curr…

END

Craig Hemke on “real” gold vs “fake” gold

(Craig Hemke)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Real gold vs. pretend gold in 2020

 Section: 

8:39p ET Tuesday, January 13, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Real gold gained on “paper gold” in 2019, Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report writes at Sprott Money today, and likely will continue to gain on it this year as central bank buying continues, hastening the deleveraging of the “paper gold” system.

Hemke’s urging for the new year: “Buy gold and demand immediate delivery. And then let’s see if we can finally begin to see prices reflect true physical gold demand and not fabricated pretend gold supply.”

… 

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Real Gold vs. Pretend Gold” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/real-gold-vs-pretend-gold-craig-hemke-1…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

J Johnson’s latest missive:

The Open Interest Is The Problem, It Controls The Price!

Posted January 15th, 2020 at 10:56 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Wednesday Morning Folks,

    Gold is higher in our earliest morning report with the trade at $1,552.30, up $7.70 after starting from a low at $1,546.50 with the high nearby at $1,554.70. Silver is following along with the trade at $17.840 up 9.8 cents with its starting point at $17.770 with the high at $17.920. The US Dollar may be getting a nose bleed from its lofty height with the trade at 96.985, down 10.9 points with the high at 97.180 and the low nearby at 96.955. Of course all this was done before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after another not so convincing Democratic debate occurred where a socialist is claiming “rigged” who also ignored the Veritas exposure.

     Venezuela’s Bolivar now has Gold valued at 15,503.60 Bolivar showing a much steeper climb than the last 2 day’s pullback recovering 85.90 overnight with Silver gaining 0.849 Bolivar, recovering very little from yesterday’s price drop. In Argentina, Gold is now valued at 93,136.31 proving the recovery of 695.03 A-Peso’s regaining all this past week loses and then some, with Silver only gaining back 7.07 A-Peso’s with the trade at 1,070.39. The Turkish Lira has Gold priced at 9,137.95 Lira recovering 41.52 T-Lira which was more than yesterday’s pullback but nowhere near Monday’s drop off with Silver at 105.017 regaining only 0.403 of a T-Lira. Gold’s recovering price swings may be predictive, stay tooned!

      January Silver Delivery Demands now show a count of 23 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts and with 0 Volume posted so far this morning proving an increase of 13 more purchases during Tuesday’s trade. Yesterday’s Delivery Month trading range didn’t budge one inch as the Volume jumped from 2 to 17. So, the delivery month had a 2-cent swing ($17.875 – $17.855) with 15 additional purchases, all the while the (February and) March Contract(s) traded well below the delivery months prices, yet the Comex closed the Delivery price at $17.674, hmmm. Said another way, the delivery month has been trading higher than the futures contracts, and it has been going on for a while. In the old days (and maybe just ahead?), this type of action would stress a “shortage” of product to deliver. Of note, that was before Algo’s took over and this giant amount of “new paper” that has been applied to the price.

      Silver’s Overall Open Interest is proving the Resolutes are still on the field of play with this morning OI count at 235,551 Overnighters showing a gain of 454 since Tuesday’s early morning post. Gold, as expected, did make another New Life of Contract “Paper” High of 798,131 proving a gain of 1,043 ( in Open Interest) and at this price. This is proving our point that if there was a limit to how much paper is used on the exchanges, like the miner’s restrictions on hedge’s, prices would be different, sharply different, and most likely at new life of contract highs!

      The game goes on, as the Resolute Buyers step in with deliveries making a mess of things for the short traders. The prices will be ironed out in time, without a doubt, all one has to do is wait it out. So, keep your physical precious metals in hand and away from any third party, have that smile on your face, and no matter what, have a positive attitude in the head. As always …

Stay Strong!

  1. Johnson
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8879/ 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8920   shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 16.78 POINTS OR 0.54%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 111.55 POINTS OR 0.39%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 108.59 POINTS OR 0.45%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 97.31/Euro FALLS TO 1.1144

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.87/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.19 and Brent: 64.36

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.21%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.37% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.45%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.58: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.39

3k Gold at $1548.50 silver at: 17.79   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 6/100 in roubles/dollar) 61.37

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.87 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9654 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0758 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.21%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.80% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.25%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8867..

World Stocks Pause At Record High To Assess US-China Trade Deal

US equity futures dipped and world stocks eased off record highs on Wednesday with US and German bond yields slipping as euphoria over the US-China trade deal set to be announced today fizzled after Steven Mnuchin said tariffs on billions of dollars of Chinese goods coming into the U.S. are likely to stay in place until after the U.S. presidential election.

Today’s main event will be the phase one trade deal signing. As DB’s Jim Reid writes, the closely guarded text still remains a bit of a mystery and as such the devil will be in the detail. All will be revealed later though with a reminder that the signing is expected to take place at the White House at 11.30am EST. It’s said to be an 86 page document but for those of us used to 550 plus page Brexit agreements that were eventually voted down this is a walk in the park. Joking aside the main headline yesterday came after Europe went home as Bloomberg reported (after others had hinted earlier) that existing tariffs on billions of Chinese goods will remain until after the US election to allow the administration to review Chinese compliance before removing them. However, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said later that China won’t win US tariff relief until the two countries reach a Phase 2 accord and added that there was no link between the timeline for tariff reductions and the November election. So the US will maintain 25% tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese imports and 7.5% on a further $120 billion for now. This news wasn’t a big surprise really but markets lost traction and dipped into the red after the headlines offsetting the small positive momentum post the dovish US CPI and the bumper start to US bank earnings. Elsewhere, the top trade officials of the US, the EU and Japan struck a deal yesterday in Washington to expand the kinds of industrial subsidies prohibited by the WTO.

“Despite the landmark signing of the U.S.-Sino trade deal today, markets are unenthused,” said Rand Merchant Bank economist Nema Ramkhelawan-Bhana. “Phase One, though positive, is merely the start of a long process to undo the damage already inflicted on the global trade order.”

Share prices pulled back from recent highs on Wednesday after Wall Street closed weaker on Tuesday, with the Stoxx 600 index dipping in the red, with gains for health-care shares countered by drops in carmakers and insurers, triggered by Mnuchin’s comments that U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods would stay until the completion of a second phase of a U.S.-China trade agreement. Their eventual removal hinged on Beijing’s compliance with the Phase 1 accord, Bloomberg reported, citing sources.

Earlier in the session, MSCI’s index of Asian shares ex-Japan retreating from 19-month peaks and Japan’s benchmark Nikkei likewise falling 0.5%, off a four-week high, hours before the U.S. and China are due to sign their phase-one trade deal. The region’s benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day winning streak. Philippine and Indonesia shares were among the biggest decliners, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index and the New Zealand Exchange 50 Gross Index hit new highs. Bourses in China, South Korea and Hong Kong lost between 0.5%-0.7% on the day. India’s Sensex also declined. Technology was the worst-performing sector. Heavyweights such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics Co. both retreated after recent rally. Here are some notable movers in the region:

European bonds held gains after data showed the German economy expanded at the slowest pace in six years in 2019…

… with gilts outperforming after U.K. inflation ebbed to a three-year low, virtually assuring more Bank of England interest-rate cuts.

The 18-month long trade feud between the US and China is set for a ceasefire in just hours as President Donald Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He sign an initial agreement that would boost Chinese purchases of U.S. manufactured and agricultural goods, energy and services. Dubbed the Phase 1 deal, it may ease concerns about the economy, if not markets which are at all time highs on constant “trade war optimism”, as the conflict between the world’s two largest economies hit hundreds of billions of dollars in goods, uprooted supply chains and slowed economic growth.

Stocks stumbled after Mnuchin’s Tuesday comments that U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods would stay until the completion of a second phase of a U.S.-China trade agreement. Their eventual removal hinged on Beijing’s compliance with the Phase 1 accord. The news did not entirely surprise markets, however, and many attributed the pullback to profit-taking off the recent rally than to any turn in underlying sentiment.

“The Phase One deal had pretty much been priced in so (Mnuchin’s) comments took some steam out of the market last night and that’s feeding through into today,” said Justin Onuekwusi, a portfolio manager at Legal & General Investment Management.

The jittery mood gave a mild boost to safe-haven assets such as gold, with the precious metal ticking up 0.3% after two days of losses. The Japanese yen and high-grade bonds also firmed slightly, though the yen was only 0.1% higher versus the dollar and a whisker off 7-1/2-month lows of 110.22. The euro rose versus the dollar, which erased earlier gains against some of its biggest peers. The trade-reliant Australian dollar slipped 0.3% against the greenback while the euro was broadly flat.

The big mover was the British pound which is down almost 2% this month versus the dollar as dismal economic numbers and policymaker comments have fanned expectations of an interest rate cut as soon as this month. A quarter-point cut is now fully priced by end-2020.

Elsewhere, U.S. Treasury yields also ticked down, with the benchmark 10-year note yield falling more than 2 basis points to 1.7864%, hurt also by Tuesday’s data showing consumer prices undershooting expectations in December, which could allow interest rates to stay unchanged this year. German 10-year yields also eased 2 bps, having earlier hit two-week highs around minus 0.169% but their direction may hinge on 2019 German growth numbers which showed the biggest euro zone economy grew at its slowest since 2013.

The Market was also weighing the impact of the U.S. government nearing publication of a rule to vastly expand its powers to block shipments of foreign-made goods to China’s Huawei, as it seeks to squeeze the blacklisted telecoms firm.

“I think the Trump administration will continue to put pressure on China in this way or some other, even after signing a Phase 1 deal,” Yuichi Kodama, chief economist at Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance said.

And then there are earnings, with traders now focusing closely on company earnings from now, as Q4 EPS are expected to fall 0.6%. Big banks Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, BlackRock are among those reporting results later on Wednesday and expectations are high after JPMorgan posted record profits and Citi beat estimates, though Wells Fargo profits slumped.

“The market will see trade escalation taken off the table but it will start to focus on earnings. We saw huge multiple expansions in 2019 and that won’t happen again until we see earnings coming through,” Onuekwusi said.

In commodities, oil futures drifted, with West Texas Intermediate trading close to $58 a barrel. Gold nudged higher.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 3,283.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.07% to 419.31
  • MXAP down 0.4% to 173.58
  • MXAPJ down 0.3% to 568.44
  • Nikkei down 0.5% to 23,916.58
  • Topix down 0.5% to 1,731.06
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 28,773.59
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,090.04
  • Sensex down 0.3% to 41,809.62
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 6,994.84
  • Kospi down 0.4% to 2,230.98
  • German 10Y yield fell 3.0 bps to -0.201%
  • Euro up 0.04% to $1.1132
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $64.16/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to 1.224%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to 0.461%
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $64.16/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,552.75
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.01% to 97.39

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Existing tariffs on billions of dollars of Chinese goods coming into the U.S. are likely to stay in place until after the U.S. presidential election, and any move to reduce them will hinge on Beijing’s compliance with the phase-one accord, people familiar said
  • President Donald Trump is poised to sign a deal with China on Wednesday that for the first time would punish Beijing if it fails to deliver on pledges related to its currency, intellectual property and the trade balance.
  • Germany’s economy expanded at the slowest pace in six years in 2019, when manufacturing took a battering and the country was dragged to the brink of a recession. Expansion was just 0.6% amid trade tensions and a broader slowdown in demand that added to fundamental structural challenges the country is battling
  • Qube Research & Technologies Ltd., the quant fund spun out from Credit Suisse Group AG with $1 billion in assets, has hired a trader from Barclays Plc as the firm expands into credit
  • University of Oxford, which traces its roots back to the 11th century, plans to sell sterling notes maturing in 2117, as pound investors seek out names likely to ride out Brexit risks
  • Ashmore Group Plc posted a 12th straight quarter of investor inflows, driving its assets to a record and bucking the downward trend among active asset managers
  • U.S. government is nearing publication of a rule that would vastly expand its powers to block shipments of foreign-made goods to China’s Huawei as it seeks to squeeze the blacklisted telecoms company, Reuters said, citing two sources
  • ECB officials see euro-area economy stabilizing at the start of 2020. Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said recessions in the U.S. or Europe can practically be excluded this year. Executive Board member Yves Mersch said the 19-nation economy was “certainly giving good signs of stabilization”
  • China added liquidity to the financial system, helping to offset a cash squeeze ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, while keeping interest rates on the loans unchanged.
  • Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said government will spend “as much as it takes” to help fire victims
  • U.S. House will vote Wednesday to send articles of impeachment against Donald Trump to the Senate for a trial that’s expected to begin early next week, but the president has yet to settle on either his defense strategy or the team that will represent him

Asian equity markets followed suit to the cautious performance on Wall St where there was a bias to the downside for most major indices on trade-related headwinds after US officials confirmed that China tariffs are to remain until after the US election despite the Phase 1 deal, although the DJIA remained afloat helped by banking names including JPMorgan at the start of earnings season. ASX 200 (+0.5%) extended on record highs and edged closer to the 7000 landmark amid mild gains in financials and as gold miners outperformed after a rebound in the precious metal, while Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) was lacklustre following the recent pullback from the 24k level and near its yearly high. Hang Seng (-0.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.5%) also traded subdued on disappointment that the Phase 1 deal will not include a tariff rollback, which overshadowed the liquidity efforts by the PBoC that had announced CNY 300bln in MLF lending and to inject CNY 100bln through 14-day reverse repos ahead of the Lunar New Year scheduled next week. Finally, 10yr JGBs oscillated beneath the 152.00 level with participants sidelined ahead of a 5yr JGB auction and after BoJ Governor Kuroda failed to provide any fresh insights regarding monetary policy ahead of next week’s meeting, although prices later recovered as all metrics pointed to a stronger 5yr auction.

Top Asian News

  • MUFG Is Said to Appoint Kamezawa as CEO, Replacing Mike
  • China Adds $58 Billion Into Banking System as Holiday Nears
  • Bharti Airtel Raises $3 Billion for Fee Payment Due in a Week
  • Indonesia Makes Arrests as Scandal-Hit Insurer Probe Widens

European equities mostly see a relatively lacklustre session [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%] ahead of the much-anticipated Phase One deal signing with the region holding a more cautious bias. This follows on from a similar APAC performance which saw Chinese markets subdued on disappointment that US will not currently roll back on existing China tariffs. UK’s FTSE 100 outperforms on the back of a weaker Sterling boosting exporters in light of further dovish rhetoric from BoE dissenter Saunders coupled with sub-par UK CPI readings.  Sectors are mixed with no clear reflection of the overall risk sentiment in the market. Healthcare outperforms with support from Roche (+0.6%) after the Pharma-giant announced commercial availability of a test which will help healthcare professionals better monitor and manage transplant patients at risk of infections. Elsewhere, the IT sector is underpinned by ASM International (+9.6%) whose share were bolstered by an upgrade to prior guidance. In terms of individual movers, Chr Hansen (-6.8%) fell to the foot of the Stoxx 600 following overall downbeat earnings and a downgraded outlook. Elsewhere, RBS (-2.7%), Eurazeo (+3.3%), Safran (+1.5%) have all been influenced by broker action.

Top European News

  • Aston Martin Needs at Least GBP400m of Equity, Jefferies Says
  • U.K.’s Flybe Rescue Shows It’s Tough for Governments to Go Green

In FX, the Pound wasn’t that perturbed about typically dovish commentary from BoE’s Saunders, but Cable subsequently retreated towards recent sub-1.3000 lows and Eur/Gbp rebounded to circa 0.8570 from just under 0.8540 when headline and core UK inflation both missed consensus by some distance. Indeed, the former printed at its weakest y/y pace in 3+ years and latter slowed to 1.4% from 1.7% previously and forecast to tip January easing expectations over 60% compared to less than evens ahead of remarks from one of the resident MPC rate cut dissenters.

AUD – Revelations that US-China trade deal Phase One will not come with any further tariff roll-backs or removal of existing levies on Chinese goods have undermined the Aussie more than most majors given its closer correlation to sentiment surrounding the issue and Yuan moves by proxy. Hence, Aud/Usd has reversed through 0.6900 again, as Usd/Cnh pares more losses and hovers above the latest lower Usd/Cny midpoint fix in contrast to the recent trend.

CHF/JPY/EUR/CAD/NZD/NOK/SEK – The Franc continues to outperform its G10 peers in wake of Switzerland’s inclusion on the list of currency manipulators compiled by the US Treasury, but Usd/Chf and Eur/Chf are also slipping on technical grounds and an element of safe-haven positioning to around 0.9655 and 1.0745 respectively. Similarly, Usd/Jpy is probing lower amidst an unwind of risk-on flows, and after topping out only a pip or so over 110.00 compared to 110.20 at one stage on Tuesday, while Eur/Usd is forging fresh 1.1150+ peaks after finally breaching aligning DMAs (21/200 marks both at 1.1138). Elsewhere, the Loonie remains softer within 1.3055-78 parameters against the backdrop of softer crude prices that are also niggling the Norwegian Krona, but not quite as much as its Swedish counterpart following a wider trade surplus vs broadly in line/benign CPI and CPIF metrics.

EM – Some respite for the Rand as SA retail sales exceed forecast, but little consolation for the Lira due to ongoing Libya angst.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures traded somewhat lacklustre after the Russian and UAE Energy Ministers dismissed source reports that the OPEC+ is to delay the March 5th/6th meeting to June. WTI Feb’20 futures reside just above the USD 58/bbl mark having dipped below the figure earlier in the session ahead of the 200DMA around USD 57.84/bbl. As a reminder, the OPEC Oil Market Report is to be released at 12:40GMT following yesterday’s EIA STEO which downgraded its 2020 world oil demand growth. Meanwhile, today will also see the weekly EIA crude stocks release after last night’s API figures printed a surprise build of 1.1mln barrels (vs. exp. draw of 500k barrels) which added selling pressure to the complex. Elsewhere, spot gold saw modest gains as APAC traders digested reports that US will not be rolling back existing China tariffs until after the election – with the yellow metal meandering around 1550/oz. Meanwhile, copper prices fell from 8-month highs on the aforementioned tariff reports which potentially dampens demand prospects for the red metal. Finally, Dalian iron ore futures swayed within tight ranges as traders juggled the US tariffs on China with lower port inventories.

US Event Calendar

 

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 13.5%
  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.0%; PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 1.3%, prior 1.1%
  • 8:30am: PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.2%; PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 1.3%, prior 1.3%
  • 8:30am: PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.0%; PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, prior 1.3%
  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, est. 3.6, prior 3.5
  • 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

Central Banks

  • 11am: Fed’s Harker Speaks in New York
  • 11am: Fed’ Daly Speaks in San Ramon, CA.
  • 12pm: Fed’s Kaplan Speaks to the Economic Club of New York
  • 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The highlight today will likely be the phase one trade deal signing. The closely guarded text still remains a bit of a mystery and as such the devil will be in the detail. All will be revealed later though with a reminder that the signing is expected to take place at the White House at 11.30am EST. It’s said to be an 86 page document but for those of us used to 550 plus page Brexit agreements that were eventually voted down this is a walk in the park. Joking aside the main headline yesterday came after Europe went home as Bloomberg reported (after others had hinted earlier) that existing tariffs on billions of Chinese goods will remain until after the US election to allow the administration to review Chinese compliance before removing them. However, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said later that China won’t win US tariff relief until the two countries reach a Phase 2 accord and added that there was no link between the timeline for tariff reductions and the November election. So the US will maintain 25% tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese imports and 7.5% on a further $120 billion for now. This news wasn’t a big surprise really but markets lost traction and dipped into the red after the headlines offsetting the small positive momentum post the dovish US CPI and the bumper start to US bank earnings. Elsewhere, the top trade officials of the US, the EU and Japan struck a deal yesterday in Washington to expand the kinds of industrial subsidies prohibited by the WTO.

By the close of play the S&P 500 and NASDAQ ended -0.15% and -0.24% respectively with both pulling back from fresh intra-day all time highs again. This followed the STOXX 600 eking out a small gain of +0.29% before the trade headlines. Elsewhere 10y Treasury yields were -3.5bps lower following a slightly delayed reaction to the CPI report while the 2s10s curve flattened a couple of basis points. The 10y Treasury-Bund spread also broke below 200bps meaning the spread has tightened for five successive sessions. In commodities Gold (-0.09%) continued to edge lower while Brent rose +0.73%.

In an otherwise quiet session it was the big beats for JP Morgan and Citi which grabbed the headlines in the early going. In the case of the former, revenues were ahead of consensus by over $1bn driven by FICC while EPS of $2.57 also smashed expectations for $1.98. Similarly for Citi, strong FICC performance also boosted revenues above consensus to over $18bn while EPS came at $1.90 compared to expectations for $1.83. Elsewhere Wells Fargo did buck the trend somewhat after reporting earnings slightly below consensus. In response, the share prices for JPM and Citi were up +1.17% and +1.56% respectively but with Wells Fargo closing down -5.39%.

Back to trade and Reuters reported overnight that the US Commerce Department has drafted a rule that would allow it to block exports to Huawei specifically if US components make up more than 10% of the product value. Currently, the US can block exports of many high-tech products to China from other countries if US-made parts make up more than 25% of the value. The Commerce department has also drafted another rule that would subject foreign-made goods based on US technology to American oversight. This could be a sign that trade related tension are likely to linger even with a phase one deal signed today.

Asian markets are trading down this morning on the trade and tariff related news mentioned above. The Nikkei (-0.53), Hang Seng (-0.75%), Shanghai Comp (-0.69%), CSI (-0.81%) and Kospi (-0.54%) are all lower. The onshore Chinese yuan is also trading down -0.14% to 6.8936. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.24%.

Back to the details of the CPI data yesterday in the US. The core reading of +0.1% (+0.113% unrounded) was below expectations for +0.2% however the annual rate did still hold steady at +2.3% yoy. In the details personal care products had the fourth largest fall in history and lodging away and household furnishings were also significant detractors. On the positive side health insurance prices continued to grow while medical care commodities was a big contributor.

The only other print in the US was the December NFIB small business optimism reading which weakened 2pts to 102.7 (vs. 104.6 expected), albeit within the c.3pt range of the last three months. There was no data of note in Europe yesterday.

Before the day ahead a mention that yesterday Nick and Craig in my credit team published a report looking at current valuations for USD and EUR HY from the perspective of cash prices and analyse what current levels have historically meant for performance going forward. See the link to the full report here.

To the day ahead now, where all eyes will be on the signing of the first phase of the trade deal between the US and China and Washington. As for data, in the US we’re due to get the December PPI report and January Empire manufacturing reading. In Europe the main data of note are December inflation prints in France and the UK as well as November industrial production for the Euro Area. The 2019 GDP reading for Germany is also scheduled. Away from the data we get the Fed’s Beige Book while the Fed’s Daly, Harker and Kaplan are also due to speak. The ECB’s Holzmann and Villeroy, along with the BoE’s Saunders also speak. Finally, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs report earnings.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.78 POINTS OR 0.54%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 111.55 POINTS OR 0.39%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 108.59 POINTS OR 0.45%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .50%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8879 /Oil DOWN TO 58.36 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8879 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8920 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA

A good look at China’s momentum as new data suggests that its GDP growth is only 4.7%

(zerohedge)

China Deceleration Continues As Stocks Price-In Massive Rebound

The World Bank trimmed its global growth forecast for 2020 due to a slowing China and a synchronized global downturn. This comes despite the Fed, ECB, and BoJ injecting upwards of $1.1 trillion into global markets in the past four months, along with cutting rates 80 times in the last 12 months.

The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report slashed 2020 growth by 0.2 percentage points to 2.5% from a June 2019 forecast.

China’s growth outlook for the year is one of stabilization, with growth expected to slip under the 6% mark. Still, there’s a significant risk that a disorderly unwinding of debt could slow the economy even further.

Over the last decade, China has been responsible for 60% of the world’s debt creation – and with the country continuing to slow, that doesn’t bode well for a massive global recovery that equity markets have already priced in.

 

To get a better view of China’s economy, we turn to Fathom Consulting, who developed the China Momentum Indicator 3.0 (CMI 3.0) that includes twelve measures of economic activity, including retail sales, unoccupied housing, and net trade.

Fathom has had a deep distrust for China’s official GDP data and created CMI 3.0 as an alternative measure of China’s economic activity.

CMI 3.0 prints around 4.7%, has stabilized since the middle of last year. There’s no indication that China’s economy will significantly turn up in early 2020, which means the global economy could continue to stagnate.

Slowing China has also weighed on crude oil prices.

Auto production in China will continue to slow with a decelerating economy.

Global stocks, juiced by trillions of dollars in money printing via central banks and 80 rate cuts, have already priced in a global recovery.

With no massive rebound expected in China in 1H20, this also means the probability of a significant rebound in the US is low. Equity markets are mispriced, thanks to an abundance of central bank liquidity.

END
This is a good outline as to what Phase one of the trade deal will look like
(zerohedge)

“A Fragile Truce”: Here’s What’s In Trump’s “Big Beautiful Monster” Of A Trade Deal

Earlier this month, President Trump referred to his ‘Phase 1’ trade pact as a “big, beautiful monster.” But for most of the trade hawks in his administration, it will likely be a disappointment – though hope remains for a more comprehensive ‘Phase 2’ pact after the election, assuming Trump wins a second term.

Rather than ending trade tensions with Beijing, the “hard fought” agreement will help establish a “fragile truce” between the world’s two largest economies, the FT reports. Indeed, many feel like the only reason we’re even getting a deal is thanks to escalating anxieties about slowing growth (in Beijing) and worries about a major market selloff heading into November (in Washington). Trump is worried because it’s an election year, and President Xi is worried because China’s powerful growth engine has started to slow, threatening to sow instability and discord among China’s population.

Based on what we know so far, this is the core of the agreement:The US has agreed to halve 15% tariffs on $120 billion in Chinese imports and an indefinite delay on further tariff hikes. In return, China has promised to make structural reforms, and buy an additional $200 billion over 2017 levels in goods and services over the next two years.

The agreement will be signed by Trump and Vice Premier Liu He during a White House ceremony at 11:30 am, and the full text is expected to be released on Wednesday, though some details will remain secret.

However, the deal leaves in place the bulk of tariffs imposed by Trump on $360 billion of Chinese imports – nearly all of the Chinese made products flowing into the country –  while the top concerns of America’s trade negotiators remain unaddressed: China refused to offer concession on issues from state subsidies to rampant cyber theft. As one Communist Party functionary said this week: “If the policies are working, why should we change?”

Initial skepticism about the capacity for Beijing’s state-controlled companies to increase imports by such a large margin has been rebuffed by a team of analysts at Goldman Sachs, who now believe that China can fulfill its $200 billion promise as we reported yesterday. They even devised a sample scenario of what that might look like:

The trade deal with Beijing is essentially an informal agreement, not a treaty or an official trade pact (like USMCA), which means Trump doesn’t need Congress’s approval to sign off. At 86 pages, it’s pretty thin for a trade agreement. There’s something else about the deal that’s unique: As Bloomberg points out, it embraces a “socialist-style central planning” that might have been anathema to prior Republican administrations.

That’s because the deal sets fixed amounts for China’s purchases of American products. A classified part of the deal breaks down the planned purchases in detail.

The deal also embraces a level of Socialist-style central planning that would have made past American presidents wince. While trade pacts traditionally set the rules and leave the details of actual commerce to markets, the one that Trump’s team has negotiated includes a classified annex that details the $200 billion Chinese buying spree.

That includes some $32 billion in additional purchases of American farm exports and $50 billion in natural gas and crude oil, according to people briefed on its contents. The administration insists the different nature of the deal is by design and that it won’t need the approval of Congress. ”

This is not a free trade agreement,” it told supporters in a memo last month. “Its purpose is to rectify unfair trade practices.”

One analyst argues that the deal, while a welcome development for the markets, does little to curb the economic rivalry between the two countries or even meaningfully reduce trade tensions (since most of the tariffs will remain in place until at least November as an enforcement measure). Moreover, significant uncertainties remain on the parameters of the purchase agreement.

It also does nothing to de-escalate the growing military tensions in the Pacific, tensions with Taiwan, and objections to Beijing’s internment of Muslims in Xinjiang.

“The signing of this truce, while welcome, does not obviate the reality that both countries view one another in increasingly antagonistic terms,”said Ali Wyne, a policy analyst at the Rand Corporation, a think-tank in Washington. “Washington regards Beijing’s economic ascendance as a threat to its national security and that of its allies and partners; Beijing, meanwhile, considers the acceleration of indigenous innovation and the cultivation of alternative export markets to be existential imperatives.”

As the administration began the process of selling the deal to the American public, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin appeared on CNBC Wednesday morning to try and butter up the market.

And some analysts are already singing Trump’s praises.

“It’s a major victory for the president,” said Stephen Vaughn, who until last year helped oversee Trump’s trade policies as the general counsel and right-hand man to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. “He has gotten China to make stronger commitments than it has made in previous agreements.”

Will Trump’s ‘Phase 1’ deal finally break the ‘Trade War cycle’ that has partly dominated markets over the last two years?

If not, fear not: speaking on CNBC, Steven Mnuchin said that a Phase 2 deal could come in multiple steps, such as 2A, 2B, 2C and so on… in other words, whatever it takes to push stocks higher on constant “trade deal optimism.”

END
The biggest winners and losers of the trade deal
(zerohedge)

Here Are The Biggest Winners & Losers From US-China Trade Deal

After a roughly two-year trade war fraught with delays and periods of intense acrimony between the world’s two largest economies, President Trump and Vice Premier Liu He have signed the ‘Phase 1’ trade deal.

Now, Washington’s initial insistence that a ‘partial’ trade agreement was out of the question – and that Beijing must be ready for an all-or-nothing deal – seems almost comical in retrospect.

But as investors digest the newly released text of the deal, the BBC has published a quick guide outlining the winners and losers from the deal.

 

Winner: Donald Trump

Some critics say there is little substance, but the signing offers an opportunity for US President Donald Trump to put the trade war behind him and claim an achievement heading into the 2020 presidential election.

That may be a relief: Polls show that most Americans agree with the president that China trades unfairly, but they generally support free trade and oppose tariffs. Indeed, Republicans lost several congressional seats in 2018 – a change economists have linked to the trade war.

Winner: President Xi Jinping

China appears set to emerge from the signing having agreed to terms it offered early in the process, including loosening market access to US financial and car firms. In many cases, companies from other countries are already benefiting from the changes.

While President Xi can claim he did not simply bow to America’s demands, that doesn’t mean the Chinese are celebrating. The Federal Reserve estimates that China’s economy has taken a 0.25% hit, as US demand for its goods fell by about a third.

Loser: American companies and consumers

The new deal halves tariff rates on $120bn worth of goods, but most of the higher duties – which affect another $360bn of Chinese goods and more than $100bn worth of US exports – remain in place. And that’s bad news for the American public.

Economists have found that the costs – more than $40bn so far – are being borne entirely by US companies and consumers. And that figure does not even try to measure lost business due to retaliation.

Overall, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that tariff-related uncertainty and costs have shaved 0.3% off of US economic growth, while reducing household income by an average of $580 since 2018.

The CBO’s estimates take into account all new tariffs imposed since January 2018 – not just those involving China – but analysts say a more limited look would yield similar findings.

Loser: Farmers and manufacturers

The new deal commits China to boost purchases in manufacturing, services, agriculture and energy from 2017 levels by $200bn over two years.

Mr Trump has said that could include as $50bn worth of agricultural goods a year.

But other officials have put the figure lower and analysts are sceptical. So far, the primary effect on business has been pain.

Farmers, who have been targeted by China’s tariffs, have seen bankruptcies soar, prompting a $28bn federal bailout.

Among manufacturers, the Federal Reserve has found employment losses, stemming from the higher import costs and China’s retaliation.

Over the long-term, American firms may reroute supply chains away from China to avoid the tariffs – but that’s an expensive prospect.

Winners: Taiwan/Vietnam/Mexico

Globally, economists estimate that the trade war will shave more than 0.5% off of growth. But some countries have benefited from the fight, which redirected an estimated $165bn in trade.
Analysts at Nomura identified Vietnam as the country that would gain the most, while the UN found that Taiwan, Mexico and Vietnam saw US orders ramp up last year.

The Fed found that the increased American imports boosted Mexico’s economic growth by just over 0.2%.

Some of those arrangements are likely to stick, even with a deal.

Loser: Washington China critics

The US has said that China has agreed to new protections for intellectual property, including lowering the threshold for criminal prosecution and increasing penalties. Critically, the two sides say they have agreed to a way to resolve such disputes.

Those were among the issues that ostensibly triggered the trade war.

But analysts say it’s not clear if the new commitments are any different from promises that China has made before. And the new deal does not address some of America’s chief complaints about China’s trade practices – such as the subsidies it provides to certain industries.

The White House has said it will tackle additional issues in a second, “phase two” deal but analysts say they don’t expect anything concrete anytime soon. The administration has also discussed how to address the subsidies with Japan and Europe.

Source: BBC

* * *

Now that the full text has been released, the takeaway is pretty clear: Beijing is benefiting from the deal.

zerohedge@zerohedge

Trade deal summary: China will buy pigs it desperately needs, soybeans it needs to feed the pigs, and whatever oil it can’t buy from Iran due to US sanctions.

China also promises to buy more if it can, but won’t

zerohedge@zerohedge

China also “grants” US funds permission to invest in trillions of local non-performing loans.

In exchange, China will make public FX information it already publishes, and if the US feels China is violating the deal, it can be ended with one Trump Tweet https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1217515862317576193 

zerohedge@zerohedge

Trade deal summary: China will buy pigs it desperately needs, soybeans it needs to feed the pigs, and whatever oil it can’t buy from Iran due to US sanctions.

China also promises to buy more if it can, but won’t

Since details of the deal were embargoed until President Trump actually signed the pact, most investors have only just begun to read into it, and many are finding that the deal isn’t as meaty as they expected, said UBS floor manager Art Cashin. That’s caused stocks to move off their highs of the session.

But now that the deal is done and dusted, where will the market look next for the bullish headlines it needs to sustain the rally? That remains to be seen.

 

end

 

Trump continues on the warpath against Huawei as they want to block more sales. And this was said right after they signed phase one of the trade deal

(zerohedge)

Bond yields just be rising and they are not as the bond players are just not buying this deal with China.  The yuan is rising but it must break through 6.83 if the deal is “real”
(Breslow/Bloomberg)

“Bonds Ain’t Buying It” – Trader Warns “A Lot Can Still Go Wrong” With China

Authored by Richard Breslow via Bloomberg,

It certainly doesn’t make you a cynic to poke holes in the idea that the trade dispute between the U.S. and China is coming to an end, courtesy of the phase-one deal being signed today. There’s an awful lot of questions left unanswered and a lot that can go wrong. Just read the Chinese media and you will get the point. And we all can acknowledge that any phase-two agreement is a long way off. On the other hand, putting this very public dispute in abeyance is a lot better than nothing.

Kicking the can down the road is a time-honored tradition in politics and, in most cases, financial markets are willing to go along with the practice if it lessens headline risk and lets us get on with looking for securities to buy.

Make no mistake, however, the two countries may be doing business with each other, but it doesn’t make their rivalry and level of distrust any less real.

The deal suits the needs of the principals involved on both sides and, at the least, may be a welcome distraction from the tawdry events and sniping back and forth that will be taking place on Capitol Hill.

In any case, we’ll see how this plays out over the coming months. And need to keep in mind the relationship between the two countries remains very much a campaign issue which will likely cause periodic lurches between extolling the virtues of progress made, and to come, with maintaining a hard line. Variations on the removal of the currency manipulation designation versus maintained tariffs through the election theme.

Having said that, one of the defining characteristics of markets has been the rapid appreciation of the yuan. Likely very much a part of the negotiating process. The move through 7 versus the dollar has been seen as an important signal for optimism about the global economy. Just as the reverse was true when it weakened through that level last August. It’s an understatement to say a lot of assets have moved in response. Quantitative, as well as discretionary, traders have taken notice. And as each day has passed featuring continued yuan strength, the forecasts for how far it could go have become more stretched. Why pass on a good opportunity to extrapolate?

Yesterday’s low in USD/CNY at 6.8670, however, brought the currency pair right into a potentially formidable band of support. And this needs to be watched carefully if the continuation of this move is the basis for your investing thesis. Getting through here opens up a look at 6.83, rather than simply clear sailing toward some of the more extreme predictions. The currency is most definitely in play. That doesn’t mean it will continue to be an easy one-way trade. This isn’t your typical free-floating currency and the Chinese will have a lot to say about how far it will be allowed to roam. They practice signaling on a regular basis.

Another development that definitely merits watching is the seeming failure of global bond markets to build on any momentum toward higher yields. It hasn’t been a dramatic turn around, and there are technical levels galore, but it definitely looks deflating when looking at the charts, if that was your view. Trade news is encouraging. Economic numbers less so. Treasury bears are unlikely to get much help from today’s slate of Fed speakers.

Ten-year Treasuries and bunds look like they are moving in lock-step and which direction the spread moves off of the circa 200-basis points wide level will be telling. There has been a lot of interest in trading these two bonds against each other. And it doesn’t look like bunds are going back to a zero yield in a hurry.

It may be grossly premature, but it is January and, therefor, always prudent, if nothing else, to question the moves that look like they will define the trends setting the tone for the year. You might want to start with the dollar. It has been confounding a lot of analysts and stopping out traders along the way.

The simplest way to follow developments may just be to see which end of the Bloomberg Dollar Index’s December 27 range ends up giving way.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY

Powerhouse Germany’s auto sector has announced that that it will cut 400,000 jobs during the next decade as car production crashes

(zerohedge)

Germany To Cut 400,000 Auto  Jobs In Next Decade As Car Production Crashes

The start of approximately 400,000 job losses in the German automotive industry is already underway as the industry shifts towards electric vehicles, reported the Financial Times.

Germany’s workforce is likely to contract by 1% in the next ten years as carmakers such as Audi, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Volkswagen, and Porsche transition to electric car sales.

The shift from a combustion engine to electric, and the resulting factor it might lead to job losses is merely a cover, or a narrative by the German press, likely created by the government, to shield the public’s view from collapsing car production in the country.

Why frighten consumers and tell them German car production has crashed to 23-year lows when narrative creation in the press can assure everyone that the slump is because carmakers are doing away with dirty fossil fuel engines for a greener future.

The German government expects carmakers to produce 10 million electric cars by 2030. With the addition of automation and artificial intelligence in factories, the need for humans will continue to wane and displace even more.

The automotive industry in the country supports 800,000 jobs and indirectly supports 3 million more.

“It is the joint responsibility of industry, trade unions, and politics to promote reskilling so that negative effects on the labor market can be kept to a minimum,” said Kurt-Christian Scheel, the VDA’s managing director that represents Germany’s carmakers.

Volkswagen’s Zwickau factory and Porsche’s Zuffenhausen assembly line have so far been converted to electric vehicle production without significant job losses, thanks to the bargaining power of unions.

It’s time the German press and government stop blaming electric cars for the massive job losses that could soon hit the industry in the coming quarters and years and prepare for a financial storm as car production has already crashed to several decade lows.

end
GERMANY
Germany records its slowest economic growth in 6 years
(zerohedge)

Germany Records Slowest Economic Growth In Six Years 

Germany’s economic growth rebounded slightly in the fourth quarter but slowed last year to its weakest level in nearly six years as trade tensions escalated, exports plunged, and a steep downturn in the automotive industry led Europe’s largest economy onto the brink of a recession, reported Bloomberg.

Official government statics show Wednesday morning that GDP growth rate in the last three months of 2019 was 0.6%, the lowest since 2013’s 0.4% expansion

Despite the economy continuing to decelerate, there was a small notable increase in GDP growth at the tail end of the year – with some optimism that the worst of the slump could be over.

A synchronized global downturn had plunged Germany into an economic decline since late 2017 when growth printed a high of 2.5% on the year. Then by 2018, growth plunged to 1.5%, and a year later, to 0.6% in 2019.

Germany narrowly avoided a recession late last year as GDP contracted in the second quarter and expanded by 0.1% in the third.

The economy is powered by industrials and exports, and with a global manufacturing recession still underway with a decelerating China – the hopes of a massive rebound in the European country are limited in 2020.

At the center of the global industrial slowdown is the auto manufacturing industry. Germany has yet to diversify from building cars and is still heavily exposed to global crosscurrents that persist.

As a countercyclical buffer, the German government deployed increased government spending to counter declines in equipment investment and exports.

“After a dynamic start to the year, and a decline in the second quarter, there were signs of a slight recovery in the second half,” said Albert Braakmann, head of the Federal Statistical Office of Germany.

Bloomberg economist Jamie Rush says the 2020 outlook for Germany is comparable to last year: sluggish. 2019 forecasts are 0.70%, which is barely any growth:

“Germany’s economy saw a slight recovery in growth in 4Q, according to the statistics office — that’s consistent with our slightly above-consensus expectation for an expansion of 0.2% to be recorded. Leading indicators have turned up into 2020, and we see the worst as being over for the German economy. Renewed trade tensions are the biggest risk to that view,” Rush said.

END
EUROPE/IRAN
Europe is still whistling “Dixie” dealing with Iran.  They have nhow formally triggered the “dispute mechanism” and we now await to see if Europe imposes sanctions on Iran.  The hope is that Iran comes to the table but without the uSA this is hopeless.
(zerohedge)

Europe Triggers Iran Deal ‘Dispute Mechanism’ In Drastic Measure To Prevent Nuclear Advancement

It goes without saying that the Iran nuclear deal is on its last legs and will likely die following declarations of Tehran leaders to no longer be beholden to uranium enrichment limits (in a Jan.6 statement) after the prior US pullout from the deal, but especially following the assassination of IRGC Quds Force Gen. Qasem Soleimani. Days after Soleimani’s death German foreign minister Heiko Maas warned the writing is on the wall as it marked the “first step towards the end” of the nuclear deal.

And now the deal’s final unraveling has just hit another crucial indicative milestone as on Tuesday France, Britain and Germany formally triggered the dispute resolution mechanismregulating conformity to the deal, seen as the harshest measure taken thus far by the European signatories. It essentially means the European powers officially see Iran as in breach of the deal; EU punitive sanctions are now on the table.

“The European powers said they were acting to avoid a crisis over nuclear proliferation adding to an escalating confrontation in the Middle East. Russia, another signatory to the pact, said it saw no grounds to trigger the mechanism,” Reuters reports.

 

File image: Boris Johnson, Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, via Reuters

However in taking the dire action, a joint statement underscored this should not be interpreted as meaning they’ve joined Washington’s “maximum pressure” campaign, but are attempting to stave off an additional crisis of potential nuclear proliferation.

The chief concern, however reluctant they may have been to trigger the mechanism, is described by a senior official’s quote to The Guardian:

Concern was most acute that Iran will be learning about centrifuge enrichment in an irreversible way. “The concern is they are going to learn something that it is not possible for them to unlearn,” one senior official said.

“We do not accept the argument that Iran is entitled to reduce compliance with the JCPoA,” the European signatories to the JCPOA said. “Our three countries are not joining a campaign to implement maximum pressure against Iran. Our hope is to bring Iran back into full compliance with its commitments under the JCPoA,” they said.

The mechanism was triggered upon the individual European states formally notifying the agreement’s guarantor, the European Union.

 

“To trigger the mechanism, the European states notified the European Union, which acts as guarantor of the agreement,” Reuters notes. “EU foreign policy chief Joseph Borrell said the aim was not to reimpose sanctions but to ensure compliance.” But we highly doubt the Iranians will see the measure the same way.

Tehran has for more than the past year leveled accusations that the Europeans are ‘too little too late’ with half-hearted measures to provide relief to Iran’s economy decimated by US sanctions, such as the ‘SWIFT-alternative’ special purpose financial vehicle INSTEX.

Meanwhile, seizing on the nuclear’s deal’s apparent unraveling in progress, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said something else that certainly won’t be taken warmly in Tehran: “If we’re going to get rid of it, let’s replace it and let’s replace it with the Trump deal.”

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/USA/IRAQ

Not sure who fired the Katyusha rockets into a USA base in Iraq.  It could be the remnants of an ISIS cell or it could be Iran

(courtesy zerohedge)

Fresh Missile Attack Rocks Base North Of Baghdad Where US Troops Present

It’s currently being described by regional analysts and reporters as a “huge” and “violent” missile attack on a base where US troops are present in Iraq, though no American casualties have been reported so far. Conflicting local accounts suggest that multiple Iraqi personnel have been injured. Reuters has the early but limited details as follows:

Iraqi camp Taji north of Baghdad was targeted by Katyusha rockets on Tuesday, with no casualties reported, an Iraqi military statement said. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack.

Bloomberg source citing Iraq’s Sumaria says 5 Katyusha rockets targeted the military base Camp Taji which lies north of Baghdad.

 

Illustrative file image via AFP.

Bases with US personnel have been on high alert in the wake of the Soleimani assassination and Iran’s subsequent ballistic missile reprisal on a few US bases inside Iraq, which itself reportedly resulted in no Americans killed or injured.

This also follows a significant Sunday incident where eight Katyusha rockets were fired at Balad air base, which houses U.S. personnel, also in the region north of Baghdad.

The US administration has tended to blame Iran-backed paramilitary groups in Iraq, such as Kataib Hezbollah, for being behind what are now semi-regular attacks.

Zaid Sabah

@ZaidSabah

UPDATE – Iraq – Camp Taji rocket attack north of Baghdad injures 3 people: Sumaria https://twitter.com/ZaidSabah/status/1217156645412909058 

Zaid Sabah

@ZaidSabah

Iraq – 5 Katyusha rockets targeted Camp Taji north of Baghdad: Sumaria

However, some sporadic ISIS activity in the region appears to be popping up again, also via Bloomberg wire citing Iraq’s Sumaria:

Militants from the Islamic State group attacked a police checkpoint in Salahuddin province in northern Iraq, killing one and injuring another, al-Sumaria reports, citing the province’s governor, Ammar al-Jubori.

Given the events of the past months, it’s entirely possible that future attacks by remnant ISIS cells in Iraq get blamed on Iran and Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) by the US administration.

It’s also possible that ISIS will taken advantage of the confused situation on the ground to sow more chaos, inviting greater US military intervention

END

IRAN/USA

After the Europeans cancelled their Nuclear deal with Iran, Rouhani threatens both USA and EU troops in the Middle east

(zerohedge)

‘Danger Today Or Tomorrow’: Iran’s Rouhani Threatens US & EU Troops In Middle East

A day after European signatories to the Iran nuclear deal took took the drastic step of triggering the agreement’s dispute resolution mechanismregulating conformity to the deal by formally notifying the EU, Iran is in breach, seen as the harshest measure taken thus far given it means EU sanctions are possible, President Hassan Rouhani has responded with his own ominous warning.

On Wednesday Rouhani in televised remarks demanded that foreign powers immediately withdraw their forces from the Middle East or face “danger”.

“Today, the American soldier is in danger, tomorrow the European soldier could be in danger,” he said in reference to the Western allies.

 

Via Government of Iran via Reuters.

Ironically, the countries of Britain, France, and Germany said they were acting in order to de-escalate soaring tensions following a Jan 6 declaration of Tehran leadership to no longer be beholden to uranium enrichment limits. This itself was in response to Washington dramatically raising the stakes with the assassination of Qasem Soleimani.

The European JCPOA signatories underscored they are “acting to avoid a crisis over nuclear proliferation” Reuters reported of the prior joint statement. Iranian FM Zarif charged that the EU investigation into Iran’s alleged non-compliance meant Europe is allowing itself to be bulled by the United States. He told reporters Wednesday:

“They say ‘We are not responsible for what the United States did.’ OK, but you are independent countries. Europe, EU, is the largest global economy. So why do you allow the United States to bully you around?”

As for Rouhani’s newest threat against US and Europe troops in the region, there have already been at least two separate rocket attacks this week against bases in Iraq which house American troops and contractors, in a slow and steady escalation expected to continue. Washington has pointed the finger at Iran-backed Shia militia groups despite no group claiming responsibility for these latest.

You will find more infographics at Statista

And as for the apparent breakdown in Iran-Europe relations, given it looks like EU capitals now look more ready to reluctantly conform to Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign (despite explicit denials that this is what the ‘dispute mechanism’ triggering is all about), it’s perhaps confirmation for Tehran of its prior charge that the Europeans are ‘too little too late’ with half-hearted measures to provide relief to Iran’s economy decimated by US sanctions, such as the ‘SWIFT-alternative’ special purpose financial vehicle INSTEX.

Meanwhile, seizing on the nuclear’s deal’s apparent unraveling in progress, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said something else that certainly won’t be taken warmly in Tehran: “If we’re going to get rid of it, let’s replace it and let’s replace it with the Trump deal.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, @BorisJohnson, stated, “We should replace the Iran deal with the Trump deal.” I agree!

Though of course there was at least one leader thrilled to hear this.

END

Turkey

Turkey is still the world’s worst jailers of journalists and thus free speech is out the window in that country

(courtesy Gatestone)

Turkey: Still Among The World’s Worst Jailers Of Journalists

Authored by Uzay Bulut via The Gatestone Institute,

According to the latest report by the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), Turkey fell below its ranking as the world’s worst jailer of journalists for the first time in four years — dropping behind even China. That rating is not exactly indicative of an improvement in Ankara’s stance towards the media. On the contrary, as CPJ revealed on December 11:

“[T]he fall to 47 journalists in jail from 68 [in 2018] reflects the successful efforts by the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to stamp out independent reporting and criticism by closing down more than 100 news outlets and lodging terror-related charges against many of their staff.”

CPJ also pointed out that Ankara’s October 24 legislative package — granting certain convicted journalists the right to re-appeal their cases, and others a shorter pre-trial detention period – has not alleviated the situation of the “scores of journalists in exile, jobless, or cowed into self-censorship.”

 

In addition, CPJ exposed,

“Dozens of journalists not currently jailed in Turkey are still facing trial or appeal and could yet be sentenced to prison, while others have been sentenced in absentia and face arrest if they return to the country.”

The above findings echo those of a report — “Turkey’s Journalists in the Dock: The Judicial Silencing of the Fourth Estate” — released jointly by CPJ, the International Press InstituteARTICLE 19, the European Centre for Press and Media FreedomReporters without Borders, the European Federation of JournalistsNorwegian PEN and PEN International.

Turkish police arrest 69-year-old journalist Ahmet Altan (center) in Istanbul on November 12, 2019, just a few days after he was released from prison, having serving more than three years of a life sentence for allegedly spreading “subliminal messages announcing a military coup” on television in 2016.

According to that report, the fruit of a two-day fact-finding mission to Turkey in September:

“The press freedom environment in the country has not improved since the lifting of the state of emergency in July 2018. Scores of journalists remain behind bars or under travel bans as a consequence of an extended, politically motivated crackdown against the media.

“A subsequent wide-ranging capture of the judiciary has progressively and severely damaged the rule of law and the public’s right to access information…

“In the months following the failed military coup of July 2016 and the launch of the state of emergency the crackdown against journalists and media was widespread and merciless. Within weeks over 160 journalists were behind bars, hundreds more facing prosecution, over 170 media had been closed and over 3,000 journalists were out of work…

“Pre-trial detention for hundreds of journalists has lasted for months and sometimes years before investigations are completed and the trials can begin. The state of emergency enabled judges to hold defendants without sufficient justification. The appeals process for individual cases has been exceedingly slow, with the Constitutional Court taking years to eventually take up and rule on individual cases…

“Anti-terrorism legislation is for the most part poorly defined, leaving room for prosecutors to conflate criticism of government with terrorist propaganda. Moreover, there is no defined threshold of evidence that needs to be obtained in order for the courts to first launch prosecutions and then for judges to assess when a terrorist act has been committed. Evidence presented in journalist cases has invariably been based on the defendants’ professional work, revealing perhaps inadvertently the desire to silence journalism as the true motivation for the prosecution…”

Putting Ankara’s persecution of the press in a wider context, Scott Griffen, deputy director of the International Press Institute, stated:

The plight of Turkey’s journalists is but the tip of the iceberg of a much broader issue of systemic human rights abuse. European institutions must insist on substantial reform and not allow the Turkish authorities to gloss over the abuse with promises of superficial change while hundreds continue to pay the price of this abuse with the loss of their liberty.”

end

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1144 UP .0016 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.87 UP 0.26 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3007   DOWN   0.0014  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO JAN 31/2020//

USA/CAN 1.3068 UP .0004 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 16 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1144 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 16.78 POINTS OR 0.54% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 111.55 POINTS OR 0.39%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,50%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 111.55 POINTS OR 0.39%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.78 POINTS OR 0.54%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 50% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 108.59  POINTS OR 0.45%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1550.10

silver:$17.80-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.80% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.25 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 97.31 DOWN 6 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.50% up 8 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.01%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.45%//DOWN 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,40 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 95 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.20% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.60% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1151  UP     .0033 or 33 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.93 UP 0.71 OR YEN DOWN 13  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3034 UP .0013 POUND UP 13  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 32 basis points to 1.3036

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8919    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8865  (YUAN DOWN)..

 

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8731 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.01%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.80 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.25 down 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.16 DOWN 21  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 8.36  0.20%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 24.19 POINTS OR .18%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 8.28 POINTS 0.14%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 16.60 POINTS or 0.17%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 164.35 POINTS OR 0.65%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 57.96 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 64.15 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    61.42  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.01 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 1 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.21 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  58.20//

 

 

BRENT :  64.27

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.78..DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.23 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1149 ( UP 21   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.85 UP .030 (YEN DOWN .030 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.23 DOWN 14 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3024 UP 2  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8772

 

 

the Russian rouble 61.42   UP 0.23 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 2 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3049 UP 18 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8919  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8913 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.21%

 

The Dow closed UP 91.16 POINTS OR 0.31%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 7.37 POINTS OR 0.08%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.63 CLOSED DOWN .24

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.842%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

 

“Sell The News”? Stocks, Dollar, & Bond Yields Slide After Signing Trade Deal

Is the market about to hit a speedboat bump?

China was down overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

European markets closed lower on the day…

 

Source: Bloomberg

US markets slid notably after the US-China trade deal was signed, but the algos were determined to keep stocks green on the day…

 

The Dow topped 29k once again, Trump mentioned it, and efforts were engaged to keep it there for the first close above the line…

 

Defensives continue to dominate cyclicals…

 

Source: Bloomberg

“Off”-Target…

 

Source: Bloomberg

More bank earnings did nothing for WFC but JPM and C erased some of yesterday’s gains…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Credit markets were notable laggards today…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were lower across the curve with the long-end outperforming (2Y -1bps, 30Y -4bps)…

 

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields closed at their lowest in over a month…

 

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve continued to flatten significantly…

 

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar drifted lower but still in a tight range…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos extended the week’s solid gains, led by Bitcoin Cash…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin accelerated to two-month highs, breaking above its 100- and 200DMA…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin is off to its best start to a year since 2012…

 

Source: Bloomberg

PMs outperformed as crude and copper drifted…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil continued to sink (on IEA fears and major product inventory builds)

And as oil sinks, HACK (the cybersecurity ETF) shows the real Iran risk trade…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold rallied back above pre-Soleimani levels…

Finally, there’s this…

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

With inflation ripping higher the expectation was for producer prices to rise. It tumbled to the weakest level since 2016.

(zerohedge)

Core Producer Price Inflation Tumbles To Weakest Since 2016

Following the surprise acceleration in consumer prices, producer prices were expected to re-accelerate after diverging for three months. While the MoM gain in headline PPI was a slight disappointment (+0.1% vs +0.2% MoM) but on a YoY basis it met expectations at +1.3% (still well below CPI)…

Source: Bloomberg

However, core producer price gains (ex-food and energy) were the weakest since August 2016 at just +1.1% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Certainly nothing here to spook The Fed into any hawkish action.

end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Bricks and mortar operations continue to weaken. We now witness shopping mall vanacies have just hit a two decade high

(zerohedge)

Shopping Mall Vacancies Hit Two-Decade High

Shopping malls across the country are under severe financial distress, with vacancy rates hitting two-decade highs in 2019, reported the Financial Times, citing a new report from Reis Moody’s Analytics.

US retailers announced 9,300 store closings in 2019, according to Coresight, indicating that the retail apocalypse and a massacre of malls are far from over.

Mall operators saw a surge of store closures in 2H19 and ahead of Christmas despite a relatively stable consumer that has been leveraging up via the use of credit cards.

Barbara Denham, a senior economist at Reis, said one notable trend during the 2019 holiday season was the shift in spending habits from brick and mortar stores to online.

The latest trend of record-high mall vacancies could be a warning to investors who own retail REITs that are exposed to regional malls and outlet centers.

Mastercard data for the 2019 holiday season confirmed Denham’s view that consumer shifts are underway from brick and mortar to online. Retail sales growth at physical stores between Nov. 1 through Christmas Eve was about 1.2% Y/Y. Overall retail sales, including online sales, for the same period was a modest 3.4%.

Roxanne Meyer, an analyst at MKM Partners, said sales promotions at brick and mortar stores were “shocking” in late 2019. Many of these stores heavily discounted items to attract consumers but even that wasn’t enough to draw in crowds.

 

Mall landlords have sought to find alternatives for ailing properties; one option has been designating 50% of the mall to retail space and the other 50% to entertainment, such as sports fields to amusement parks. Another option has been the construction of multifamily complexes on the property to keep consumers close to stores.

The death of American malls is real, and it’s not being overstated, the worse has yet to come as more stores are expected to close in 2020.

END

With the rise in the mandatory $15 dollar minimum wage, it is no wonder thatn half of all USA restaurants are struggling.

(zerohedge)

Half Of All US Restaurants Are Struggling With Rising Labor Costs

In the one year since New York City implemented a mandatory $15 minimum wage, businesses have been struggling with the increased labor costs, Fox News reported previously. “They’re cutting their staff. They’re cutting their hours. They’re shutting down,” said Queens Chamber of Commerce president, Thomas Grech – who reports seeing an uptick in small business closures over the past six to nine months. “It’s not just the rent.”

Bronx Chamber of Commerce president Lisa Sorin notes that the increase has hurt small businesses the most, while Manhattan employers and their customers can afford to pay more to compensate. “It’s almost like a whirlwind of keep up or get out,” she said.

This dynamic was reflected in a Gothamist survey, which revealed that NYC restaurants are ‘thriving’ amid the $15 minimum wage, but acknowledges “Nearly 50 percent of respondents to the Hospitality Alliance’s survey said they would have to eliminate jobs in 2019 to make do.”

It’s not just New York, however, that is suffering as a result of rising labor costs. According to a new report by Restaurant Divenearly half, or 48% of all US restaurants, are finding that rising labor costs have become a major challenge for restaurant operators.

With a historically low employment rate, restaurants are having trouble attracting and retaining quality labor. Low employment means job applicants tend to have the upper hand when it comes to settling for a certain wage or seeking better pay elsewhere.

Other labor-related pressures involve a new minimum salary for overtime eligibility from the Department of Labor, and growing consumer interest in seeing a $15 minimum wage become federal law. The DOL is also proposing further changes to rules regarding tip pooling and tip credit, which has been a particularly confusing subject for the industry during the past few years.

 

Fortunately technological innovations are offering restaurant operators a few ways to tackle some of the labor-related challenges identified in the study. Outback is tapping AI technology to analyze diner interactions with staff, for example, including lobby cameras and wait time tracking. Mangers review the data in real-time so that any poor reviews in the making can be remedied before the guests leave the restaurant.

Robotics and automation also made a debut in the restaurant space, but luckily for minimum wage workers at least for now, overall adoption has been low especially among large operations that have more difficulty rolling out systems to automate tasks. Small chains, those with less than 50 units, were more likely to say they would use automation in the future. That hasn’t stopped large chains, however. McDonald’s piloted an automated fryer in the kitchen last year as well as voice-activated drive-thrus in Chicago. It’s also introducing automated beverage equipment. The endeavor is designed to reduce customer wait times while making employees’ jobs easier. Freeing them up from some of these more mundane tasks allows them to focus on cultivating a better customer experience through interaction and service. Futurists are betting on robots to take over even more restaurant operations during the coming decade.

While technology seems to be addressing some of the labor-related pains, training and retention have ample opportunity for improvement as well. A few brands have invested in better training opportunities for employees like Denny’s partnership with Magic Johnson focusing on leadership training and McDonald’s women-focused career excellence and Women in Tech initiatives. To boost retention rates, chains like StarbucksNoodles & CompanyChipotleShake Shack and Sweetgreen bulked up employee benefits last year.

END
With the economy slowly the Trump administration is now hinting at a further tax cut to stimulate growth
(zerohedge)

Debt Eruption Coming: Kudlow Says “Tax Cut 2.0” Will Be Unveiled Later This Year

Shortly after Charlie Gasparino tweeted that the Trump admin is “mulling an election-year fiscal stimulus as part of budget proposal” and which may “include a payroll tax reduction, and increase in earned income tax credit”…

Charles Gasparino

@CGasparino

SCOOP via @LJMoynihan — Congressional sources say @WhiteHouse is mulling an election-year fiscal stimulus as part of budget proposal; sources say ideas on the table include a payroll tax reduction, and increase in earned income tax credit. more as we get it @FoxBusiness

… Larry Kudlow spoke on CNBC confirming that the White House indeed plans to unveil a plan for additional tax cuts later in 2020.

“I am still running a process of Tax Cuts 2.0. We’re many months away – it’ll come out something later during the campaign,” Kudlow told CNBC. “Tax Cuts 2.0 to help middle-class economic growth: That’s still our goal.”

“I had a tremendous meeting with my friend Kevin Brady, who will undoubtedly be the new chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee,” he added. “But we will unveil this perhaps sometimes later in the summer.”

What this means is that after the $1.1-$1.2 trillion budget deficit in 2020, the US is staring at an even wider deficit next year, which of course will be funded by debt, and since foreign buyers have been increasingly less excited to buy US debt, will force the Fed to expand its QE4 to buy coupon bonds across the entire curve. It also means that the following chart projecting the trajectory of US debt is now the optimistic case.

END

iv) Swamp commentaries)

This is good;  General Mike Flynn withdraws his guilty plea due to government’s bad faith and breach of their plea agreement

(zeorhedge)

Mike Flynn Withdraws Guilty Plea Due To Government’s ‘Bad Faith, Vindictiveness, And Breach Of Plea Agreement’

One week after federal prosecutors changed their tune in the Michael Flynn case – recommending he serve up to six months in prison for lying to investigators regarding his contacts with a Russian diplomat, the former National Security Adviser withdrew his guilty pleaTuesday afternoon.

In a 24-page court filing, Flynn accuses the government of “bad faith, vindictiveness, and breach of the plea agreement,” and has asked his January 28th sentencing date to be postponed for 30 days.

Techno Fog@Techno_Fog

🚨🚨🚨

General Flynn has moved to withdraw his guilty plea due to the “government’s bad faith, vindictiveness, and breach of the plea agreement.”

View image on Twitter

According to Flynn’s counsel, prosecutors “concocted” Flynn’s alleged “false statements by their own misrepresentations, deceit, and omissions.”

“It is beyond ironic and completely outrageous that the prosecutors have persecuted Mr. Flynn, virtually bankrupted him, and put his entire family through unimaginable stress for three years,” the filing continues.

Techno Fog@Techno_Fog

Prosecutors (Van Grack) knowingly sought to induce false statements from Flynn relating to his FARA registration.

View image on Twitter

Techno Fog@Techno_Fog

“The prosecutors concocted the alleged ‘false statements’ (relating to FARA filing) by their own misrepresentations, deceit, and omissions.”

View image on Twitter

Techno Fog@Techno_Fog

These parts are very important – the DOJ’s allegations of guilt don’t match up to the record.

Link to Exhibit #9:https://www.scribd.com/document/442973399/US-v-Flynn-Exh-9 

View image on Twitter

Prosecutors initially recommended no jail time over Flynn’s cooperation in the Russiagate probes, however they flipped negative on him after he “sought to thwart the efforts of the government to hold other individuals, principally Bijan Rafiekian, accountable for criminal wrongdoing.”

The 67-year-old Rafiekian, an Iranian-American and Flynn’s former business partner, was charged with illegally acting as an unregistered agent of a foreign government. Prosecutors accused Flynn of failing to accept responsibility and “complete his cooperation” – as well as “affirmative efforts to undermine” the prosecution of Rafiekian.”

More on this from attorney and researcher @Techno Fog:

Techno Fog@Techno_Fog

Van Grack demanded “false testimony from Mr. Flynn about the alleged ‘false statements’ in the FARA filing – despite Flynn explaining how he learned things in “hindsight” in June 2018

cc @KerriKupecDOJ

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Techno Fog@Techno_Fog

After Flynn refused to lie for prosecutors (Van Grack), they retaliated by:

1) Reversing course and labeling Flynn a co-conspirator

2) Improperly contacted Flynn’s son

3) Put Flynn’s son on the witness list for intimidation purposes (never called as a witness)

View image on Twitter

Techno Fog@Techno_Fog

“The govt’s tactics in relation for Mr. Flynn’s refusal to ‘compose’ for the prosecution is a due process violation that can and should be stopped dead in its tracks by this Court”

end
Pelosi announces her 7 house managers for Trump impeachment.  The Senate does not have the 51 votes to dismiss the case.  Thus the trial begins
(zerohedge)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Well that is all for today

I will see you Thursday night.

 

 

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