FEB 26//GOLD DOWN $4.45 TO $1643.95//SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TO $17.89//HUGE NO OF CORONAVIRUS STORIES AND SWAMP STORIES

 

 

GOLD:$1643.95  DOWN $4.45    (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING

 

Silver:$17.89   DOWN 9 CENTS. (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

ACCESS MARKETS

 

Gold : 1639.50

SILVER: 17.90

 

 

WE NOW ENTER OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK:

COMEX EXPIRES: TOMORROW FEB 25

OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRES FEB 28

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 0/26

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,646.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/25/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 02/27/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 8
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 20 2
685 C RJ OBRIEN 2
690 C ABN AMRO 15
905 C ADM 4 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 26 26
MONTH TO DATE: 8,006

 

 

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  FEB CONTRACT: 26 NOTICE(S) FOR 2600 OZ (0.0808 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  8006 NOTICES FOR 800600 OZ  (24.902 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR FEB

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR NIL  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 919 for 1,455,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  9243 down 80 dollars

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: 9376  down 256 dollars

 

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Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL  BY A HUGE SIZED 5735 CONTRACTS FROM 244,705 DOWN TO 238970 MOVING AWAY FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 744,710, (FEB 25/2020.  THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG 67 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG  SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; FEB 0; MARCH:  4265 AND MAY: 215 AND JULY: 0 ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  4265 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 4216 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2105 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 6.53 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 67 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.455    MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN FEB

 

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 67 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE NO DOUBT SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 1470 CONTRACTS. OR 7.35 MILLION OZ…..   WE HAD SMALL LONG LIQUIDATION AND WE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING,..MOST OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO THE CRIMINAL SPREADER LIQUIDATION.

 

 

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION AND THAT EXPLAINS THE RISE IN COMEX OI DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE.  FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE MARCH.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON  ACTIVE MONTH OF FEB .BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEB:

28,527 CONTRACTS (FOR 17 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 28,527 CONTRACTS) OR 142.65 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1547 CONTRACTS OR 7.564 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 142.65 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 20.35% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          324.30 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL SO FAR:  ……     142.65 MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 5735, WITH THE STRONG 67 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /TUESDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2105 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE LOST A  STRONG SIZED  SIZED:  1470 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: (WITH THE 67 CENT FALL IN PRICE)

i.e 4265 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 5735 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A STRONG 67 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.98 // TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.221 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 174% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  FEB DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR  NIL OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.445 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY STRONG SIZED 4555 CONTRACTS TO 732,917 AND MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE GOOD GAIN IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE FALL OF $26.10 IN PRICING /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY// WE, MOST LIKELY HAD TINY BANKER SHORT COVERING BUT NO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH THAT FALL IN PRICE.  TOGETHER WITH THE HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EFP’S (SEE BELOW) OUR BANKER FRIENDS BASICALLY COULD NOT FLEECE ANY APPRECIABLE LONGS FROM ANY GOLD ARENA AND THUS OUR VERY STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES!  

 

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 11,119 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 6152; JUNE. 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 6152.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 732,917.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,707 CONTRACTS: 4555 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 6,152 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 10,707 CONTRACTS OR 1,070,700 OZ OR 33.30 TONNES. TUESDAY, WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF $26.10 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 33.30  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (LOSS $26.10). AND IT SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE  GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA FAILED AGAIN AS WE HAD  A STRONG INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (6,152) ACCOMPANYING THE CONSIDERABLE GAIN IN COMEX OI.(4555 OI):  TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  10,707 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING BUT NO LONG LIQUIDATION:  JUST A HUGE INCREASE IN TOTAL OI WITH MOST OF THE GAIN COMING FROM EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS.

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB : 163,633 CONTRACTS OR 16,363,300 oz OR 508.96 TONNES (17 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9532 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 508.96 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 508.96/3550 x 100% TONNES =14.33% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL /GOLD HAS EXPLODED THIS MONTH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   1079.15  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; SO FAR: 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE SO FAR:            508.96  TONNES

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 4555 DESPITE THE VERY STRONG  PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK TUESDAY($26.10)) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6152 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT TH GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6152 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 10,707 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6152 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  4555 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 33.30 TONNES). AND THIS HUGE INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $26.10 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING/// AT THE COMEX.

 

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OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 5735 CONTRACTS FROM 244,710 DOWN TO 238,970 AND MOVING AWAY FROM  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710 (SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

MOST OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO THE CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION OF SPREADERS EXPLAINED ABOVE

EFP ISSUANCE 4265

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  4050:  AND MAY: 215; JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4265 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 5735 CONTRACTS TO THE 4265 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG LOSS OF 1470 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  7.35MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY  NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ//  SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ//JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ//FEB: 1.455 MILLION OZ//

 

 

RESULT: A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE STRONG 67 CENT FALL IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 4265EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

 

 

 

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 30.52 POINTS OR 1.04%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 131.51 POINTS OR 0.46%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 422.94 POINTS OR 1.97%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .42%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8807 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8807 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8834 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C  CHINA

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

 

LET US BEGIN:

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4265 CONTRACTS TO 732,917 MOVING CLOSER TO OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND, SURPRISINGLY THIS GAIN IN OI WAS SET WITH A STRONG LOSS OF $28.40 IN GOLD PRICING //TUESDAY’ COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE,.  THUS WE HAD MINIMAL BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND NO LONG LIQUIDATION ……AS OUR TWO EXCHANGES ROSE HUGELY IN OPEN INTEREST..

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6152 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

  FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 6152,  JUNE : 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 6152 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE SIZED 10,707 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6,152 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4555 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP ATMOSPHERIC AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH OUR SMALL INCREASE OF COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. 

 

THE BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL BY $26.10). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ROSE BY A HUGE  SIZED 10,707 CONTRACTS ….(33.30 TONNES) WE HAD MINOR BANKER SHORT COVERING

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  1,070,700CONTRACTS OR 1,070,700 OZ OR 33.30 TONNES

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  732,917 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 73.29 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  2,279 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 2,279/2200 OR 103.37% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 5735 CONTRACTS FROM 244,710 DOWN TO 238,970 (AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . OUR HUGE OI COMEX LOSS TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG 67 CENT DECREASE IN PRICING/TUESDAY. TODAY MOST OF THE LOSS OF COMEX OI IN SILVER WAS DUE TO THE LIQUIDATION IN SILVER.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.

FEB IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF FEBRUARY HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 0 CONTRACT SHOWING A LOSS OF 2 CONTRACT//TUESDAY TRADING. WE HAD 2 NOTICES SERVED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR NIL OZ OF ADDITIONAL SILVER OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO  MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS SUCH THEY NEGATED A FIAT BONUS

 

 

March is a very active month and here we witness a LOSS of 23,827 contracts  DOWN TO 29,326

APRIL saw a LOSS of 231 contracts DOWN to 1815

MAY had a good 14,264 gain in oi to stand at 156, 262.

 

 

 

We, today, had  2 notice(s)  for 10,000, OZ for the FEB, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 505,443 contracts..volume extremely high

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  713,206 contracts//high volume

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  FEB/GOLD

 

 

FEB 26/2020

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 201.07 oz

 

Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
26 notice(s)
 2600 OZ
(0.0808 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
165 contracts
(16500 oz)
0.5132 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
8006 notices
800,600 OZ
24.902 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

we had XX dealer entry:

We had XX kilobar entries

 

 

 

total dealer deposits:XX oz

total dealer withdrawals: XXX oz

 

we had XX deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: XXX  oz

 

ii) Into everybody else XXX

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposits:  XX  oz

 

 

we had XX gold withdrawals from the customer account:

total gold withdrawals;  XX  oz

 

ADJUSTMENTS: XX

 

 

 

The front month of February saw its open interest FALL by 87 contracts DOWN to 191 contracts.  We had 35 notices filed upon yesterday, so we LOST  52 contracts or an additional 5200 oz will NOT  stand for delivery in NEW YORK and THUS, THEY  MORPHED into London based FORWARDS. THEIR SEARCH FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND HAS STOPPED. The March non active contract month saw its OI FALL by 367 contracts DOWN to 1448.  The big April contract month saw its OI FALL by 3080 contracts DOWN to 519,809,.

 

We had 26 notices filed today for 2600 oz

 

 

 

FOR THE  FEB 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 26 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8006) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  FEB. (191 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (26 x 100 oz per contract) equals 817100 OZ OR 25.410 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of FEB

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (8006 x 100 oz)  + (191)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (26 x 100 oz )which equals 817,900 oz standing OR 25.410 TONNES in this active delivery month which is  a great amount for gold standing for a February delivery month.

 

We LOS 52 contracts or 5200 oz  THAT WILL NOT STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE ONLY 37.485 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:  AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT:                                                                      5.4525 TONNES

OCT…………………………………………………………………………..   37.99 TONNES

NOV……                                                                5.3841 tonnes

DEC………………………….                                              45.912 TONNES

JAN……………………                                                    8.448 TONNES

FEB……………………………………………..                             25.41 tonnes

 

total: 155.9023 tonnes

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

 

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 7 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 25,645 TONNES SETTLED (includes the 1.0445 tonnes of today)

 

IF WE ADD THE 7 DELIVERY MONTHS: 155.9023  tonnes

 

Thus:

155.9023 tonnes of delivery –

25.645 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

 

=130.257 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 36.6300 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

 

total registered or dealer gold:   1,353,869.021 oz or  42.111 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC + BRINKS  which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b)registered gold that can be used to settle upon:1,177,657.6  (36.6300 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  1,177657.6  (36.6300 tonnes)
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   8,663,541.978 oz 269.49 tonnes

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.
3. NO GOLD IS ENTERING THE COMEX

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

 

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..

 

 

end

 

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
FEB 26 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 XXX oz
XX

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
XXX oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
XXX
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  291 contracts

1,455,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

we had XX inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: XXX oz

total dealer withdrawals: XX oz

i)we had  XX deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   xx

into everybody else:  xxx

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.84 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.92% of all official comex silver. (161.3 million/323.167 million

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  xxx   oz

 

we had xx withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; xxx  oz

We had xx adjustment:

 

 

total dealer silver:  81.922 million

total dealer + customer silver:  323.167 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the FEB 2019. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR NIL oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 291 x 5,000 oz = 1,455,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (0) and the number of notices served upon today 0x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the FEB/2019 contract month: 291 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of Feb (2)- number of notices served upon today (2) x 5000 oz equals 1,455,000 oz of silver standing for the Feb contract month.

 

We gained 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused to  morph into London based forwards and as such negated a fiat bonus 

 

 

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:  THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE  MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 209005 CONTRACTS //volume extremely high

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 289,034 CONTRACTS..,,volume extremely high

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 289,034 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 1,445 million  OZ  206.9% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NPV for Sprott

 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.54% ((FEB 25/2019)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.52% to NAV FEB 25/2019 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 1.54%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 16.34 TRADING 15.95///DISCOUNT 2.38

 

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

FEB 25./WITH GOLD DOWN  TODAY/ GOLD INVENTORY INCREASES BY 6.15 TONNES//GLD INVENTORY AT 640.09 TONNES

FEB 24/with gold up $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF:2.34 TONNES   //INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.94 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.60 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.84 TONES

FEB 18. WITH GOLD UP $17.00//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD UP $1.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.23 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $6.10 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.08 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT; 914.91 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.91 TONNES

FEB 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.10: A VERY STRANGE PHENOMENA: A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 9.38 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.58 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE: A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.21 TONNES( TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE STORAGE INSURANCE ETC)

JAN 31/WITH GOLD DOWN  $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.50 TONES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP 0.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.41 TONNES

JAN 27//WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 24//WITH GOLD UP $6.65 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 900.58 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $8.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MAMMOTH 19.33 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED//INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.82 TONES

JAN 21/2010//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.49

JAN 16//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.32

JAN 15/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.52 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

FEB 25/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 940.09 tonnes

*IN LAST 769 TRADING DAYS: +2.89 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

*LAST 669 TRADING DAYS: A NET 169 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

FEB 25\WITH SILVER DOWN TODAY,A HUGE GAIN OF 5.319 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.752 MILLION OZ

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 21//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/. WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 746,000 FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.433 MILLION OZ.

FEB 13/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 12//WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/ WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.166 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 364.179 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF //INVENTORY RESTS AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 701,000//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 363.013 MILLION OZ//

FEB 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:A SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 154,000 OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.312 MILLION OZ// AND GENERALLY THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE/STORAGE

FEB 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY; A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 560,000 OZ INTO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.466 MILLION OZ/

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 361/906 MILLION OZ//

JAN 30/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.027 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.746 MILLION OZ

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.587 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 361.719 MILLION OZ//

 

JAN 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 360.132 MILLION OZ

JAN 27//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 327,000 OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 24//WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.975 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 359.805 MILLION OZ//

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 MILLION OZ..

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.027 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 353.830 OZ

JAN 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ//

JAN 17/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 420,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354.437 MILLION OZ.

JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 840,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 354,857 MILLION OZ//

JAN 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 355.697 MILLION OZ//

FEB 25.2020:  SLV INVENTORY

363.433 MILLION OZ

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.60/ and libor 6 month duration 1.63

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .03

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.63%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.64

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.01

end

 

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8807/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8834   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 30.52 POINTS OR 1.04%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 131.51 POINTS OR 0.46%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 422.94 POINTS OR 1.97%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.24/Euro FALLS TO 1.1219

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.13/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.21 and Brent: 64.13

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen PU CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.32%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.53% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.39%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.85: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.09

3k Gold at $1421.50 silver at: 16.13   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 10/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.99

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.85 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9875 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1077 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.32%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.05% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.57%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6988..

“A Cry For Help”: Global Sell-Off Accelerates On Rising Coronavirus Panic

With little other data to guide risk sentiment, traders remained in thrall to the barrage of coronavirus headlines with last week’s bizarre complacency now completely shattered as volatility soars.

As a result, with the global pandemic now getting worse by the day,  world stocks tumbled for the fifth straight day on Wednesday, while safe-haven gold rose back towards seven-year highs and U.S. bond yields held near record lows after governments and health authorities warned of a possible coronavirus pandemic.

Overnight, the closely watched South Korean cluster reported 115 additional cases as of 4pm, after announcing 169 as of 9am this morning, according to a statement. Among a total of 1,261 cases vs. 51 a week ago, 710 were confirmed from Daegu and 317 from neighboring North Gyeongsang province Total death toll is 12; one fatality includes Mongolian citizen.

South Korea also said 16,734 people are currently being tested for coronavirus, up from 13,880 last night. Many of them are being tested as a precaution. Also overnight, Italy reported an additional 19 new virus cases, with the death toll now at 12. French health official announced three new confirmed COVID-19 cases in France, as well as the first death. Spain reported 2 more cases of the coronavirus, including the first case in Madrid, with 7 total cases reported in the last 24 hours. While Poland has recorded its first case as has Greece, according to press reports. Brazil’s Health Ministry said a man has tested positive for coronavirus in an initial test, with subsequent tests confirming this; in the first case for Latin America. A second coronavirus case has been reported in Africa, tests indicate an Italian adult who arrived in the country on 17 February has tested positive, according to WHO Africa.

In short: a deadly virus has now gone global and no matter what the WHO says, it is now a pandemic; for those who do care what the criminally corrupt World Health Organization did say, the WHO’s Tederos said using the word ‘pandemic’ carelessly has no benefit, could amplify unjustified fear and stigma; word might also signal that the virus can no longer be contained, “which is not true.”

Meanwhile, amid fabricated numbers, the virus has claimed almost 3,000 lives (the real number is probably over 100,000) in mainland China where drastic travel restrictions slammed the brakes on China’s manufacturing and consumer spending, and there are worries other countries will face similar disruptions.

“China’s template to contain the virus was to restrict economic activity and that’s hitting home. Markets are fearing there will be sequential shutdowns of economic systems to stop the spread,” said Lombard Odier strategist Salman Ahmed. Those fears of severe economic damage, and eventually a global recession if not depression, have sent MSCI’s all-country equity index to 2-1/2-month lows, wiping almost $3 trillion off its value this week alone.

US Index futures initially rose, then plunged, then rebounded and were trading modestly in the red at last check while stocks in Europe and Asia tumbled.

In EUrope, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined for a fifth session, its longest down streak since July, as Diageo Plc and Danone SA warned the virus outbreak will hit sales in China. The first cases in Greece and in South America were reported, while Spain locked down a resort hotel in the Canary Islands with about 1,000 guests and workers inside. Europe’s VIX, the V2X index, briefly printed above 32 – the highest since the Feb 2018 volmageddon – as European equities slumped as much as 2.5% before bouncing off the lows, all driven by reports of more virus cases outside of China.

The export-heavy DAX lags European peers but recovers half of the morning’s losses; sectors-wise, travel names shed more than 3%, financial services and chemical names lose over 2% as markets run for havens.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell for the fourth day, led by health care and IT, on concern over the impact of the coronavirus amid infections outside of China continue to spike. Stocks in Sydney and Seoul led declines in Asia, with the won falling back toward its weakest since 2016 as South Korea emerged as a hot spot for the contagion. All Asian markets were down, with Thailand’s SET Index dropping 4% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 falling 2.3%. Trading volume for MSCI Asia Pacific Index members was 44% above the monthly average for this time of the day. South Korea has emerged as the hot spot for the virus as infections surged pass 1,200. Italy and Iran have reported 11 and 15 deaths respectively. The Topix declined 0.8%, with Daitobo and Segue falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.8%, with Irico Display Devices and Ningbo Tuopu posting the biggest slides

In rates, ten-year Treasury yields edged up from a record-low close set Tuesday, while a dollar gauge rose. Bund and Treasury futures pare Asian losses with curves bull steepening. ECB-dated OIS rates price a 10bps rate cut by Dec. ‘20 for the first time since October last year. Gilts rally sharply, gains in 10y futures capped around 135.00. Peripheral spreads widen more aggressively with Bund/BTP trading through 150bps.  Money markets also price roughly two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A Bank of England rate cut is also fully priced for September.

“Part of this selloff is a cry for help,” Ahmed said but he said Fed cuts were unlikely in the early part of the year unless “we get an Italy-like situation in the United States.”

In FX, G-10 FX slips versus USD as rate cut expectations weighed on the dollar while continued to pullback against the yen from recent 10-month high of 112.23 yen. It traded around 110 yen. greenback also came off an almost three-year high against the euro, reached on Feb. 20 while it remained flat to a basket of currencies.

The Swiss franc advanced a second day and Treasuries rose with bunds, with emphasis on the front-end of the curve; European peripheral bonds sold off, led by Italy, amid increased credit risk. Money markets are pricing a 10-basis-point ECB interest-rate cut in December 2020, the first time a full cut has been factored in for this year since October. The euro recovered to trade little changed against the dollar; the Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped for a fifth straight session, suffering its longest losing streak since July. The pound fell and gilts rallied as negotiations between the U.K. and the EU over the two sides’ future trading relationship were expected to get off to a tense start, with the Westminster government’s strong majority giving extra credence to its threats to walk away without a deal. The Australian dollar dropped after hedge funds sold the commodity currency, triggering stop-losses, as concerns grow over the widening impact of the coronavirus. The yuan rose against its peers for a second day as investors started to price in the virus outbreak globally instead of a China domestic event.

“The significant dovish tilt being priced in by markets from the Fed may not materialize and that might cause the next leg of the dollar rally,” said Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy at Mizuho.

The dash for safety also boosted gold 1% to around $1,650 per ounce, heading back towards seven-year highs of 1,688.66 hit on Monday. Brent crude futures fell 1% to $53.95 per barrel.

Expected data include new home sales. Lowe’s, TJX, and Wendy’s are among companies reporting earnings. Turning to the day ahead now, the highlights include January’s US new home sales and the MBA’s weekly mortgage applications. From central banks, there’ll be a number of ECB speakers, including President Lagarde, as well as Makhlouf, Panetta and Holzmann.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 3,124.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 2.2% to 395.69
  • MXAP down 1.2% to 160.84
  • MXAPJ down 1.4% to 524.63
  • Nikkei down 0.8% to 22,426.19
  • Topix down 0.8% to 1,606.17
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 26,696.49
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 2,987.93
  • Sensex down 1.1% to 39,838.26
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 2.3% to 6,708.10
  • Kospi down 1.3% to 2,076.77
  • Brent futures down 1.3% to $54.26/bbl
  • Gold spot up 1% to $1,651.79
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 99.09
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.3 bps to -0.525%
  • Euro up 0.06% to $1.0889
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.0 bps to 0.822%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 3.4 bps to 0.247%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Europe remained on high alert for coronavirus cases as Spain joined Italy and other nations in battling to contain the disease, confining around 700 guests to a Canary Islands hotel while they undergo tests. The number of infections on Tenerife climbed to four
  • Global investors are stashing more and more assets into gold as the coronavirus outbreak spreads and appetite for risk takes a hit. The global tally of bullion in exchange-traded funds swelled by the most in more than a month on Tuesday as equities sank. That was the 25th consecutive day of inflows, a record. At 2,624.7 tons, the holdings are the largest ever
  • Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called for major sporting and cultural events to be called off, postponed or scaled down over the next two weeks, saying the move was crucial in preventing the domestic spread of the new coronavirus
  • Hong Kong’s government unveiled a budget packed with giveaways including a one-time cash handout that economists said isn’t likely to spur growth, as the city struggles to stabilize an economy battered by political unrest and the coronavirus
  • Global banks including UBS Group AG and Bank of America Corp. are broadening their contingency plans across Asia to ensure they can keep trading and other operations running as the spread of the coronavirus accelerates outside China
  • Bank of England will apply tougher haircuts on Libor-linked collateral in its operations from October. BOE Executive Director for Markets Andrew Hauser announces move as part of measures to accelerate replacement of Libor, which he says is a global stability risk

Asian equities traded mostly lower, with losses across the board for a bulk of the session after Wall Street experienced another bleak session which saw the DJIA shed almost 900 points, whilst the S&P posted is largest two-day loss since August 2015 and the Nasdaq turned negative for the year – traders were also spooked by the 10yr Treasury yield falling to a fresh record low of ~1.3070%, which came as a function of the rising virus fears. ASX 200 (-2.3%) continued to be pressured by its heavyweight financials and mining sectors, whilst Nikkei 225 (-0.8%) bore the brunt of declines across mining and auto names, but Canon shares rose around 4% at the open on the back of reports that the Co. has started developing a coronavirus testing kit. The index drifted off lows as it tracked the movements in USD/JPY. KOSPI (-1.3%) conformed to the regional declines following its breather session yesterday, as confirmed South Korean cases topped 1000 vs. 51 a week ago. Over in China, Hang Seng (-0.7%) was weighed on by losses across its oil giants, entertainment stocks and financials – which together account for almost 70% of the index, although the index pared some losses upon the unveiling of the Hong Kong budget, which announced a HKD 120bln package of measures to bolster the economy. Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) opened lower by over 1% but thereafter trimmed losses despite the PBoC skipping OMO for a 7th consecutive day, after the latest China virus numbers showed a slowing rate of new cases and deaths.

Top Asia Headlines

  • Virus Damage to China’s Economy Clear From Early Indicators
  • The Race to Lead Malaysia Comes Down to Two Long-Time Rivals
  • Jet Air Creditors to Ask Court to Extend Liquidation Deadline
  • Lebanon Faces a $50 Billion Hole Even Beyond Its Eurobonds

Stocks in Europe (Eurostoxx -1.2%) have once again fallen victim to the fallout of COVID-19 as the virus shows no sign of abating outside of China. The velocity of the selling pressure in Europe has been noteworthy with interim support levels proving to be futile (e.g. FTSE MIB has now entered correction territory from last week’s highs). That said, ahead of the US entrance to market, indices have nursed some losses as markets paused for breath following recent selling. In terms of the case count, reporting for the purposes of a written report is particularly difficult given the fluidity of the situation (as such we will refer you to the headline feed of the website), however, from a European perspective, Italy is continuing to announce further coronavirus diagnosis’, France has announced two deaths, Spain’s case tally continues to rise, Britain has stepped up preventative measures, Poland and Greece have announced their first cases. Again, this is just a small snapshot of where we currently stand and the situation is consistently evolving on an hour-by hour basis. Losses are relatively broad-based across sectors with defensive names unable to insulate themselves from the selling pressure. Notable specific laggards include, LSE (-2.7%) with Co. shares have been weighed on by FT reports that the Co.’s purchase of Refinitiv is facing increasing scrutiny by the EU, whilst travel names once again are a source of heavy underperformance with TUI (-2.1%), easyJet (-2.3%), RyanAir (-4.3%). Furthermore, corporate updates in the UK from Metro Bank (-17%) and Taylor Wimpey (-3.5%) have been poorly received with the latter hampering some of its UK peers. To the upside, Weir Group (+6.5%) top the Stoxx 600 post-FY earnings update, whilst Saipem (+3%) shares were lifted after exceeding 2019 financial targets and Danone (Unch) has been able to avoid negative territory despite cutting sales guidance.

Top European headlines

  • Avast Says Jumpshot Scandal Caused Brief Spike in Defections
  • Money Markets Start Pricing in ECB Interest-Rate Cut This Year
  • Spanish Hotel Remains on Lockdown With Europe on High Alert
  • Avast Says Jumpshot Privacy Scandal Impact Has Been Limited

In FX, all off best levels, but retaining a firm underlying bid as broad sentiment remains bearish on the ongoing spread and accumulation of COVID-19 cases/deaths further beyond mainland China. The Franc is probing above 0.9750 against a relatively depressed Dollar, though unwinding some gains vs a perkier Euro that has breached Fib resistance against the Greenback around 1.0887 and tested 1.0900, while reclaiming big figures at 1.0600 and 0.8400 in Eur/Chf and Eur/Gbp cross terms. Note, market contacts suggest the latter may have rebounded on month end factors and the usual RHS demand, while Eur/Usd could have derived some upside impetus from option expiries skewed towards the top of a 1.0850-1.0900 range (1.8 bn at the base, 1.2 bn from 1.0860-70 and 2.5 bn between 1.0890-1.0900). Elsewhere, the Yen has been meandering within 110.57-14 parameters and mindful of comments from Japanese PM Abe underlining a watching brief on nCoV and market moves in response to unfolding developments, while Gold has settled down after another bout of heavy selling to straddle Usd1650/oz again.

  • GBP/AUD/NZD/CAD/NOK/SEK – As noted above, the Pound has lost traction partly due to Eur/Gbp positioning for Friday, while Cable has retreated from 1.3000+ peaks amidst speculation of seasonal US selling on top of Brexit uncertainty that is hampering Sterling before UK-EU trade talks begin. However, the Aussie is underperforming in outright terms following much weaker than forecast construction data overnight, as Aud/Usd falls to fresh decade+ lows circa 0.6570 in contrast to a more resilient Kiwi clinging to 0.6300 ahead of NZ trade later. Another decline in crude has undermined the Loonie and Norwegian Crown, with Usd/Cad hovering just shy of 1.3300 and Eur/Nok up to 10.2300 at one stage, while the Swedish Crown is keeping its head afloat of 10.6000 vs the single currency after more Riksbank attempts to downplay weak inflation and Sek itself.
  • USD – The Buck remains prone to more pronounced demand for safer-havens and soft US Treasury yields, but the DXY is holding around 99.000 by virtue of bigger net advances vs the more high-beta, risk or cyclical currencies ahead of housing metrics.
  • EM – Aside from the overall negative tone, the Lira awaits news from Turkey’s first meeting with Russia on Syria to see if positive sentiments from the latter about finding an Idlib solution come to fruition, while the Rand is eagerly eyeing the SA budget at noon and Mexican Peso more macro news in the form of retail sales.

In commodities, WTI and Brent remain under pressure this morning, as another bout of wide-spread selling commenced as European players entered the market. At present, WTI and Brent front month futures are just off of session lows which are around the USD 49/bbl and USD 54/bbl marks respectively as downside pressure appears to have abated slightly as we approach the US’ market entrance; albeit, they are still down in excess of USD 0.50/bbl on the day. Focus this morning has been firmly on the coronavirus, with reports of additional cases in multiple countries just after the European cash open as well as the first death in France. Coronavirus contagion aside, next week brings the OPEC+ meeting and, as we continue to await Russia’s stance to the JTC’s recommended cuts, ING posit that OPEC+ will extend the current cuts and Saudi will continue to over-comply to offset the virus’s demand-side impact; it’s worth noting that doing so may be made modestly easier in the event that Libyan ports remain closed for the foreseeable future. Looking ahead, we have the release of the weekly EIA report, which is expected to print a headline crude build of 2.467mln; almost double last nights smaller than expected 1.3mln build via the API’s. Turning to metals, where spot gold is around USD 12/oz firmer on the day, but has retreated from highs at USD 1655/oz; a level which is comfortably below yesterday’s USD 1663.78/oz peak and the YTD’s USD 1689.29/oz mark. Copper prices remain subdued this morning, and within proximity to the USD 2.48/lb low for the year thus far; base metals more broadly remain similarly hampered on demand concerns from the virus.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -6.4%
  • 10am: New Home Sales, est. 718,250, prior 694,000
  • 10am: New Home Sales MoM, est. 3.5%, prior -0.4%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

If you want a hint at how bad things could get logistically with the covid-19, my wife and I agreed last night that we were going to get an extra large shop this weekend to fully stock up our cupboards and freezer in case the disruptions become more widespread over the next week or so. I’d like to think we’re a fairly rational and balanced couple (you may think differently) so if we’re doing that I’d imagine there will be some pretty extreme things done and measures taken over the next few weeks as the virus spreads through the West. In terms of more scientific advice, here at DB research we are trying to give you as much colour as possible on the implications of the spread and if you haven’t already done so I think you’ll find it insightful to listen to the replay of yesterday’s call with our expert epidemiologist Dr. Michael Edelstein. You can see how by viewing this link here. As we warned you yesterday after our pre-call with him on Monday, the most likely scenario now is that this virus will spread across Europe as a minimum, and more than likely the US, causing a lot of economic disruption. As we also said yesterday it should be seen as flu plus or plus plus with a slightly worse contagion rate and a mortality rate likely between 2.5 and 5 times the flu’s 0.2% – so still under 1%. The commonly cited China mortality rate of c.3% is likely far too high due to numerous mild cases that have likely gone unreported in an area overwhelmed by the spread. It still also appears that the mortality rate is biased toward older men with pre-existing illnesses. A big difference to the flu is that this is a new virus and therefore humans won’t have built up an immunity of several years or decades.

Overall the long-term health consequences while serious for those unfortunately caught up in it are probably not the main macro issue, but the short-term economic consequences are a very major concern. Western governments and citizens are likely to increasingly be on lockdown to try to limit the risks of infections and contagions. Just yesterday there were stories circulating that a senior member of the International Olympic Committee said that if it proves too dangerous for Tokyo to host the Olympics this summer because of the coronavirus outbreak, organizers are more likely to cancel it than postpone. Expect the news-flow to get worse from here as the virus and the knock-on effects spread.

After the CDC warning last night (more on that below), the latest on the virus is that cases in South Korea have increased to 1,146, up 169 versus this time yesterday and comparing to just 51 cases a week ago with the vast majority of new cases overnight coming in Daegu with a US solider in the city amongst those testing positive. The first case has been confirmed in South America with a man in Brazil testing positive having traveled to northern Italy for work earlier this month. Worth highlighting also, Japan PM Abe has called for major sporting events and cultural events to be called off, postponed or scaled back over the next couple weeks with the PM also announcing a ban on people travelling from Daegu into Japan. Chinese State TV has also said overnight that China has quarantined 94 passengers from a Seoul to East China’s Nanjing flight after three passengers were found to have a fever on the flight. In total the number of cases globally now is 80,987 and deaths 2,761.

With the virus escalating more stimulus announcements are being made. Overnight, Hong Kong announced a HKD 120bn ($15.4bn) relief package which includes a payment of HKD 10,000 to each permanent resident of the city 18 or older. Markets still remain unsettled, however the good news is that moves have been comparatively more modest this morning. The Nikkei (-0.90%), Hang Seng (-0.56%) and Kospi (-1.13%) are down with bourses in China more mixed (Shanghai Comp is up +0.30% and CSI 300 down -0.05%). Futures on the S&P 500 are also up +0.49% while Oil has gained over half a percent. As for overnight data releases and highlighting the impact from virus, Hong Kong’s January trade balance came at HKD -30.6bn (vs. HKD -11.1bn expected) with exports slumping by -22.7% (vs. -3.7% expected) and imports coming in at -16.4% (vs. -2.5% expected).

In terms of European cases, Italy remains the worst affected country, with 322 confirmed cases and 10 fatalities, but the virus is continuing to spread around the continent, with Croatia, Switzerland and Austria all reporting their first cases yesterday. There were also dramatic developments on the Spanish island of Tenerife, where a hotel with around a thousand people was put into lockdown after an Italian doctor tested positive for the virus. With the upsurge this week, there’s increasing recognition of the potential impact on European growth, and Bank of France governor Villeroy de Galhau said that it was “very likely we will revise slightly downward our forecast”.

Yesterday was another tough day for risk with the main headline that US 10yr Treasuries officially closed the US session at their record low (1.352%) with our data going back to the birth of the nation in the 1790s. 30yr Treasuries also fell to a fresh record low of 1.825%. Using the WIRP function on Bloomberg, markets are now pricing in a 66.5% chance that the Fed will have cut rates again by their April meeting, up from 24.5% at the close last Wednesday. Meanwhile the 3m10y yield curve inverted by a further -0.3bps yesterday to close at -18.4bps, which is the lowest level since September.

Over in Europe 10yr bunds fell -3.1bps to -0.515% but Italian yields rose 2bps. This is fairly mild risk off for Italy probably reflecting that this is a global issue that happens to have some temporary immediacy in Italy for now. Having said that our economist published a note yesterday (link here) looking at the importance of the affected areas to the broader economy in Italy and the channels through which a virus shock, if not quickly contained, could create an economic shock. Structurally, the Italian economy is vulnerable to shocks. They also look at possible policy flexibility so a good note to review.

Elsewhere other haven assets also continued to be supported thanks to the widespread investor concern, with the Japanese Yen seeing its strongest 2-day advance against the US dollar since June 2019.

It was another torrid day for global equity markets, with the S&P 500 giving back its gains at the open to plunge -3.03% after warnings from the CDC to prepare for an epidemic in the US following the outbreaks and spike in cases across Italy, Iran, South Korea and Japan in recent days. This is the index’s 4th consecutive move lower, which is the first time that’s happened since last August. The index is down over 7% over the last 3 sessions, the worst 3-day performance since August of 2015. Selling was more widespread in the US, but Financials and Energy stocks saw the largest decline as the move in rates and oil (Brent down -2.40%) impacted them disproportionally. Volatility continued to climb, with the VIX index up +2.8pts to around 28 – its highest level since December 2018 when financial markets looked in horrible shape. On US equities as we’ve been saying over the last 2-3 months, the US market went into this virus outbreak priced for perfection with PE ratios only historically higher when we’ve been in a bubble. We’ve likened it to being at ‘bubble’ base camp. So although no one could have predicted the virus you could have said that markets were extremely rich and not pricing in any risk.

In Europe the STOXX 600 had a weak performance yesterday but closed before the peak of the US sell-off to close down -1.76%. This still leaves the index with its worst 2-day performance since the aftermath of the Brexit referendum in June 2016. Banks in Europe also underperformed in particular against the backdrop of falling yields, with the STOXX Banks index down -3.19% in the index’s 6th consecutive decline.

Fed Vice Chairman Clarida spoke late in the session. He reiterated that the coronavirus threats require close monitoring and that it will have a significant impact on China activity, but that it is too soon to assess the global and US implications. He emphasized that policy is not on a pre-set course and that the Fed will be taking it on a meeting-by-meeting basis – which may be obvious but also serves as a “go to” line for Fed officials that want to signal they are flexible. He didn’t give as much of a guide to current thinking as our economists thought he could have given the magnitude and momentum in recent market moves.

Coronavirus even came up briefly during the Democratic debate in South Carolina, where the candidates gave their last pitch to voters there, who vote on Saturday, and across all 14 states and American Samoa on Super Tuesday, 3 March. The national front runner, Senator Bernie Sanders, took a lot of attacks from his competitors in what was likely the most contentious debate of this cycle yet. However, it remains to be seen if there will be any material impact ahead of an important 2 weeks of primary voting.

Before that, there was an important development in German politics with the CDU leadership race, as health minister Jens Spahn, a contender in the last contest, announced that he would not be running for leader again and endorsed Armin Laschet. Laschet is a more moderate figure in the party and is currently the premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, whereas Spahn is considered to be a more conservative figure. The two will be running on a joint ticket, so that if Laschet is elected, he will put forward Spahn to become the CDU vice chair. Because they come from different wings of the party, this is a ticket that has the potential for broad support among CDU members, and poses a threat to the campaign of the more conservative Friedrich Merz, who campaigned for the leadership last time and also announced yesterday that he would be running.

Onto Brexit, and the EU published their mandate for the upcoming negotiations on the future relationship yesterday, ahead of the start of formal talks between the two sides on Monday. In the EU’s publication, they maintained their demands for a level playing field, saying that “the envisaged agreement should uphold common high standards, and corresponding high standards over time with Union standards as a reference point, in the areas of State aid, competition, state-owned enterprises, social and employment standards, environmental standards, climate change, relevant tax matters and other regulatory measures and practices in these areas.” However, the UK rejected demands that the UK sign up to the level playing field, with the No.10 press office tweeting that “The EU mandate stresses (reasonably) the importance of its own legal autonomy. We are equally determined to protect ours. That is the key point of Brexit and is fundamental to the sustainable long-term relationship the EU says it wants with us.” Nevertheless, the EU’s Michel Barnier said yesterday that “The trade deal will be associated with a fisheries agreement and a level playing field, otherwise there won’t be any agreement at all”.

In terms of now backward looking economic data out yesterday, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading for February came in at 130.7 (vs. 132.2 expected). While this was somewhat below expectations, the downward revisions to the previous month’s reading meant that it actually hit a 6-month high, while the expectations reading also advanced to a 7-month high of 107.8. Over in France, the INSEE’s business confidence indicator outperformed expectations, coming in at 105 in February (vs. 103 expected), the index’s highest level in 3 months.

Turning to the day ahead now. The highlights include French consumer confidence for February, January’s US new home sales and the MBA’s weekly mortgage applications. From central banks, there’ll be a number of ECB speakers, including President Lagarde, as well as Makhlouf, Panetta and Holzmann.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 30.52 POINTS OR 1.04%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 131.51 POINTS OR 0.46%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 422.94 POINTS OR 1.97%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .42%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8807 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8807 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8834 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

FRANCE/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

France Confirms 2nd Death As Outbreak Spreads Across Europe; Virus Arrives In South America: Live Updates

Update (0730ET): The UK has announced plans to start randomly testing citizens with flu-like symptoms for COVID-19. The plan is part of measures to contain the virus as the UK has managed to avoid reporting any new cases over the past week. In England, random testing will take place at 11 hospitals and 100 doctor’s offices.

“This testing will tell us whether there’s evidence of infection more widespread than we think there is. We don’t think there is at the moment,” Cosford said. He added: “The other thing it will do is, if we do get to the position of more widespread infection across the country, then it will give us early warning that that’s happening.”

So far, only 13 people have been infected.

* * *

Update (0715ET): Abe’s government has officially denied comments made by a senior IOC member who suggested that the Tokyo Games might need to be canceled if the virus is still a threat in late May. IOC member Dick Pound told the AP that “a decision would have to be made by late May” about whether to cancel the games, according to the Washington Post.

The official position of the Japanese government is that the Games will not be canceled. Besides the obvious blowback for Japan’s already sagging economy, cancelling the games would likely have a serious psychological impact on consumer confidence in the world’s third-largest economy.

In other Japan news, Hokkaido, a prefecture in the north ofJapan, has urged schools to temporarily close as it struggles to contain the virus after a string of new cases popped up in the area. It was the prefecture’s first order to close schools since the epidemic began.

* * *

After cementing its largest two-day percentage drop in two years (going by points, it was the biggest two-day drop ever), stocks fell in Europe Wednesday as France reported its second virus-linked death (and first French national; the first was an 80-year-old Chinese tourist), while Spain confirmed 8 new cases within 24 hours.

The Frenchman who passed away on Wednesday was one of three new cases confirmed by health authorities.

Over in the US, the CDC warned yesterday that “community spread” of the virus is “inevitable,” while President Trump and his administration continued to insist that everything is fine and that the outbreak in the US would soon die down. We also saw Croatia, Austria and Switzerland report their first cases on Tuesday following the EU health commissioner’s declaration that closing borders would be “disproportionate and ineffective.”

“We’re talking about a virus that doesn’t respect borders,” said Italy’s Health Minister Roberto Speranza yesterday.

Are we the only ones who feel that this sounds like justification for closing the border?

Mirroring the situation on the Canary island of Tenerife, Austrian authorities placed a hotel in the Alpine city of Innsbruck under lockdown after a receptionist (an Italian who had recently visited outbreak epicenter Lombardy) tested positive, according to the Washington Post.

Just hours after Brazil confirmed the first case in South America, some of its continental neighbors are going on “maximum alert”. Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei said the country was battening down the hatches, and that its hospitals are fully stocked and supplied.

On Wednesday, Greece confirmed its first case in the city of Thessaloniki, while Iran reported 19 new deaths, bringing them, within swinging distance of the 50 deaths that a local lawmaker reported earlier this week. Confirmed cases in the revolutionary Islamic Republic have climbed to 139. According to Al Jazeera, Kuwait confirmed six more cases on Wednesday, bringing its total tally to 18. Bahrain reported three new cases, bringing its national total total to 26 as three women who recently traveled to Iran carried the virus back.

While European officials largely avoided the heavy-handed tactics used in China, government ministers urged people to avoid all “non-essential” travel as the outbreak spreads across Europe. The mystery at the center of the outbreak in Italy has compounded fears, as the lack of understanding contributes to the hysteria surrounding the outbreak.

“There is no prohibition,” said Spain’s health minister, Salvador Illa, according to El Pais. “But unless it is essential, do not go to a risk zone. It’s common sense.”

Rumors circulating around twitter yesterday claimed an official who had met with the Ayatollah only days ago had tested positive for the virus, becoming at least the second government official to catch the virus after the deputy health minister.

The Hong Kong government said it had been contacted by more than 3,000 Hong Kongers in Hubei Province, including 532 in Wuhan, asking for help getting them back to Hong Kong. In order to return to HK, the government said all Hong Kongers in Hubei must register with the government by Feb. 28.

Mongolia has become the latest neighbor to tighten its borders and restrict internal travel. The country said it would restrict travel to and from its capital, Ulaanbaatar, to other provinces until March 3. A transportation minister said the country would take precautions with other flights from Europe, Russia Turkey and Kazakhstan. Egyptair has extended its shut-down of flights to China; flights were supposed to resume on Thursday.

The Philippines, which adopted travel restrictions directed at China, said Wednesday it would also impose travel restrictions on South Korea. The government announced an immediate ban on entry to travelers from North Gyeongsang province, where the coronavirus-hit city of Daegu is located. Japan also announced that it would bar travelers who had visited Daegu or Ceongdo.

Overnight, South Korea reported 115 more cases, in keeping with its 2-3 daily updates. The new total: 1,261. That number is, of course, expected to climb over the coming days as the country begins the mass-testing of 200,000 people, including members of the cult-like church that’s found itself at the epicenter of the outbreak in Korea.

Korea also reported that an American soldier was among the 169 cases reported earlier in the day (we noted it late last night).

Israel has yet to detect the virus within its borders, but another hair-raising revelation came to light Wednesday when South Korea’s CDC confirmed that the Korean Air cabin crew infected with the coronavirus had been on a flight between Israel and Incheon.

As Shinzo Abe’s government goes all-out to keep the Olympics on track, the PM announced on Wednesday that all major sporting and cultural events in the country taking place over the next two weeks should be postponed or canceled. This comes after the International Olympic Committee said the Olympic Games would go on no matter what, even if the outbreak keeps travelers away, the Japan Times reports.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

President Rouhani Blames America For “Spreading Fear” About Iranian Coronavirus Outbreak

The Iranian regime is not having a good year.

In January, the IRGC and military tried to cover up the accidental ‘shoot-down’ of a Ukrainian passenger plane packed with young Iranian students. In February, it tried to cover up an outbreak of the coronavirus, and inadvertently allowed several senior health officials to become infected, including a deputy health official who appeared on Iranian TV looking like he was about to drop dead.

He was later confirmed to have the virus. We covered this extensively yesterday.

Tom Gara

@tomgara

On a scale from 1 to Your Government Is Absolutely Not Up To The Task, the deputy health minister literally appearing at a coronavirus press conference in a fever sweat, because he has coronavirus, ranks right up there https://twitter.com/ksadjadpour/status/1232287585235501056 

Karim Sadjadpour

@ksadjadpour

1 In a press conference yesterday an Iranian government spokesman confidently asserts they have “no problem” containing coronavirus. Alongside him, the country’s deputy health minister appears symptomatic, but takes no precautions to cover/isolate himself

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1,423 people are talking about this

Following rumors that the Ayatollah himself may have been exposed to the virus, President Rouhani appeared on TV to accuse the US on Wednesday of inciting “fear” in Iran over the deadly outbreak.

Sorry, Mr. President, but we suspect your government’s botched response is really to blame.

According to i24 News, Coronavirus has killed 19 Iranians among 139 confirmed to be infected, as one lawmaker claimed that the true death toll was much higher.

“We shouldn’t let America mount a new virus on top of coronavirus that is called…extreme fear,” Rouhani told a weekly cabinet meeting, a day after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused Iran of suppressing information about the outbreak.

Rouhani also dipped into conspiracy theory, accusing the US of covering up the outbreak by labeling thousands of cases as the common flu.

The Americans “themselves are struggling with coronavirus. Sixteen thousand people have died of influenza there but they don’t talk about their own (dead),” Rouhani said.

Iranian authorities have closed schools, universities, cultural centers, sporting events and deployed teams of sanitary workers to disinfect buses, trains and public spaces as the outbreak unleashes a full-blown hysteria.

However, something tells us their approach to containing the virus hasn’t been as effective as they had expected.

Jenan Al Asfoor@asfoor_jenan

No joke: nurses sterilize “Rouhani Hospital” in Mazandaran province of Incense to counter the Corona virus. There has been several cases of corona virus 🦠 in Iran 🇮🇷 lately ..

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24 people are talking about this

6.Global Issues

Stockman Warns “The Jig Is Up!” – Covid-19 And The Defenestration Of The Central Bankers

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

Let it be said that historians will surely marvel – and at some point soon – about the grand delusion of the present era. Namely, the near universal belief that central bankers could print, peg and palaver the main street economy into unfailing expansion and ever rising prosperity and that there were essentially no macro-risks to soaring stock prices that their toolkits couldn’t contain and counteract.

That misbegotten belief had huge untoward consequences. It made economies brittle with too much leverage, financialization and speculation; and fragile with too few shock absorbers and insurance mechanism such as just-in-case inventories, second suppliers and local sources for physical production and back-up liquidity lines and balance sheet reserves for financial operations.

Then came the Black Bat of 2020 (or whatever) with its toxic economic contagion. Racing with virtually lightening speed through an infinitely complex and deeply integrated global supply chain anchored in the Red Ponzi, the breakdown of economic activity is already proving that the central banks are not omnipotent after all.

Just as they cannot print antibodies to stop the coronavirus disease, they can’t print raw materials, intermediates, components and sub-assembly to restart broken supply chains. Super-QE wouldn’t do it; double digit subzero rates wouldn’t help; and open mouth forward guidance would only call to mind King Canute shouting at the incoming sea.

It is too early to tell, of course, as to whether the Covid-19 is the Big Bang or if it will be soon wrestled to ground by public health authorities around the planet, thereby eventually relieving the global supply chains of quarantined workers, grounded planes, ships and trains, depleted inventories and paralyzed business decision processes.

But even assuming the latter, the predicate of central bank omnipotence should now be swept into the dustpan of history. Not only can the Fed not repair and revive disrupted supply chains, but it can’t even accomplish the conventional tasks it has defined for itself. Namely, making domestic inflation rise by 2.00% annually and causing output growth to adhere unfailingly to the path of full-employment GDP, world without end.

That’s because in a world of Peak Debt—-$255 trillion globally and $74 trillion in the U.S. alone—the Fed’s policy tools are not only impotent; they are actually malignant.

It is now more than evident that the impact of massive bond-buying/balance sheet expansion (QE) and brutal repression of money market interest rates never goes beyond the canyons of Wall Street. It just inflates, inflates and inflates further the price of financial assets owing to the symbiotic confluence of carry trade speculators on Wall Street and the huge financial engineering joints that have been fostered in the C-suites of corporate America by central bankers.

As a consequence, capital has been artificially drafted into financial speculation and money dealing. At the same time, household and business balance sheets have been deeply impaired in order to live high on the hog today rather than investing for the long haul and positioning to weather the unpredictable vicissitudes of individual and collective life–illness, accidents, wars, pestilence, droughts and plagues, one of which we are now experiencing.

But virtually none of that vaunted “stimulus” makes its way to main street. Neither output, employment nor inflation is materially impacted by the Fed’s incessant interventions and machinations in the financial markets.

Take the objective of 2.00% inflation targeting that Fed head Lael Brainard was yapping about last week. In the first place we wonder exactly why she’s complaining about persistent inflation shortfalls from target and therefore the need for even more “monetary accommodation” in order to cause inflation to run hotter until it averages 2.00% over a permanent time frame.

The fact is, the CPI less its volatile food and energy components has exceeded 2.00% for 23 months running. How is that a shortfall?

Indeed, we don’t need a magnifying glass to grasp the story in this case. There is nary a single bar below the sacred 2.00% line in the entire 23 month-long chart below.

CPI Less Food And Energy, Year-Over-Year Change Since March 2018

Of course, the Fed has a different inflation measuring stick called the PCE deflator that reads lower per the discussion below. But until the Fed formally adopted inflation targeting in January 2012 based on the PCE deflator, the CPI less food and energy was seen as a serviceable proxy for the trend inflation rate shorn of the temporary volatilities attributed to global food and energy cycles.

Indeed, the low-flation crowd at the Fed and among its megaphones on Wall Street have some serious ‘splain’ to do based on the above. That’s because their argument for 2.00% inflation is that low inflation invites deflation, which, in turn, encourages consumers to defer spending in anticipation of even lower future prices, thereby impairing the spending mainspring of the Keynesian economy.

That’s complete nonsense, of course, least the plummeting price of smart phones would have queried Apple’s $1.4 trillion market cap long ago.

Still, even the Keynesian central bankers have not argued that falling food and energy prices will cause consumers to eat less or to drive fewer miles or freeze in the dark in their homes waiting for fuel prices to stop falling!

Q.E.D. If there is a low-flation problem on the entirety of the CPI which isn’t food and energy, where is it?

And we are not just talking about the last 23 months. Here is the entire span since inflation targeting was adopted. During the 97 month period from January 2012, the CPI less food and energy posted above 2.00% on a year-over-year basis more than half the time, while the average rate at 1.95% per annum was actually check-by-jowl with the target.

So if Brainard really wants multi-year averaging at 2.00%, well, we already have it.

That is, unless they actually want to argue that the 5 basis point per year average miss over nearly a decade is more than a rounding error. That’s preposterous, so it’s also case closed on the low-flation canard.

CPI Less Food And Energy, Year-Over-Year % Change Since January 2012

But there is a larger point implicit in the above. What actual direct control does the Fed have over globally driven commodity prices, as well as their second cousins, manufactured goods, the prices of which are overwhelmingly driven by global markets?

In fact, a disaggregation of the Fed’s owned ballyhooed PCE deflator puts a stake right through the low-flation argument. To wit, during the period since January 2012:

  • The PCE deflator for services (purple line) is up by 19.4% or 2.31% per annum;
  • The PCE deflator for goods (red line) is down by -5.3% or -0.70% per annum;
  • The overall PCE deflator (black line), therefore, has risen by just 1.34% per annum because it is being pull down by global prices for goods—even as the more domestically driven prices for services have persistently exceeded the 2.00% target.

And that’s why the Fed cannot hit its inflation target. Just like it cannot print antibodies or supply chain deliveries, it cannot force inflation to march to its tune because the recent absence of it in the commodities and goods markets is rooted in the global economy.

The level of disingenuous mendacity among Brainard, Powell and the rest of the “moaaaar inflation” gummers could not be more obvious than in the two charts below.

Of course, Brainard & Co. know that the purple line (domestic services) has been marching steadily higher while the red line (globally traded goods) has moved materially lower since the inflation targeting experiment was begun in 2012.

Isn’t it time, therefore, for them to admit they don’t have a snowball’s chance in the hot place of calling the tune on global oil prices or labor intensive manufactures, and therefore they need to give up on what is essentially a stupid project in the first place (inflation does not cause prosperity!).

Or if they must persist with inflation-targeting for reasons of institutional face-saving— then refocus on domestic services (not withstanding the growing impact of the “India Price” for services) and declare victory!

PCE Deflators For Goods, Service and Total Since January 2012

In fact, if you look more closely at the purple line (domestic services) expressed as a year-over-year rate of change, the low-flation lie is there for all to see. For the last eight years it has persistently posted above the 2.00% policy target line.

Also, quite obviously, the total PCE deflator (black line), which is, apparently, the Eccles Building’s holy grail, has fallen short of target because it has been powerfully pulled down from below owing to the worldwide excess of cheap industrial and transportation capital and abundant cheap labor that has been drained from the rice paddies and subsistence villages of Asia.

Not even King Canute would have attempted to roll back that mighty tide, which is exactly what 2.00% inflation targeting on the total PCE deflator amounts to.

Year-Over-Year PCE Deflator Change For Goods, Services And Total Since January 2012

As it happens, the Fed’s impotence with respect to its inflation target is also true on the output and employment front. On that score, it is constantly fine-tuning its money market repression tools (25 bps at a time) and recalibrating its QE bond purchases (and short-lived QT bonds sales).

But exactly why? After all, the extended unfolding of a long but weak-kneed business cycle expansion driven by the inherent tendency of capitalists and workers to want more and produce more has now proven the Fed doesn’t have anything to do with it.

As a theoretical and process matter, households were tapped out collectively at Peak Debt 11 years ago on the eve of the financial crisis and business have been sucked into financial engineering speculations.

This means that the traditional transmission channel from the money, debt and capital markets to main street is completely broken. “Stimulus” never gets to the latter, and, instead, remains sequestered in Wall Street were it functions to finance speculation and drive risk asset prices ever higher.

Moreover, as an empirical matter, where’s the beef?

The blue line represents total industrial production (manufacturing, construction and energy/mining). Since January 2012 it has swung substantially—-from +4.5% annual change to -4.5% annual change. But that substantial oscillation bears no relationship to the doings of Fed policy during this period.

The red line represents quantitative easing (QE) and the year-over year rate of change in the Fed balance sheet. During this eight year period it swung from positive 40% at the peak of QE in 2013 to negative -20% in 2019 during the short-lived QT episode to + 50% during last falls’ repo ruction and the subsequent return to madcap liquidity pumping.

Is there any discernible relationship between the red line and the oscillations of the industrial production index (blue line), which, in turn, drives the less severe stop and go movements of the GDP?

There is not.

The same is true of the traditional policy tool of pegging the Federal funds rate (black line). If they industrial production index could speak, it would say I never knew ya.

In sum, the economy grows owing to the rudiments of capitalism—workers, entrepreneurs, investors, inventors and savers— putting their collective shoulders to the grindstone of production and investment. It heads from the lower left to the upper right–even as it is deflected and oscillated by the rumbling forces of the global economy, and is held back by the fiscal and regulatory barriers thrown in its path by the agencies of the state.

Compared to these elemental forces, the central bankers are strictly bit players, if that.

And that gets us to the great irony of a day when the casino plunged by 1030 Dow Points because the predicate of central bank omnipotence is facing a sudden and unexpected challenge from the growing impact of Covid-19 on the global economy and its vast and intricate supply chains.

The Fed pretends it is entirely about the business of boosting main street and the employment, production, income and inflation metrics by which is performance is measured. Yet as Covid-19 now reminds, it is actually impotent on all that it sanctimoniously claims to be sheparding and enhancing.

At the same time, it claims to be focused on the stock market, if at all, only out of a squinting corner of its collective eye.

Nonsense!

All that it does is conditioned and encapsulated by wealth effects theory and a sniveling fear of a Wall Street hissy fits. So it keeps on temporizing, capitulating and re-fueling the bubbles that it dare not allow to correct.

Its true ignominy, however, is becoming ever more apparent. It has impaired main street badly by crushing savers, wage earners and productive investment, while inflating a massive bubble on Wall Street it claims not to see.

But now the bubble has surely reached its asymptote and may well have plowed into the pin that was always lurking it its path.

Yet notwithstanding further bouts of “stimulus” idiocy – such as former Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota’s desperate call today for deep immediate rate cuts (to what, zero?) – it is not even up to the task of sustaining the dangerous financial malignancies it has fostered.

That is to say, by imperiously violating over the last 30 years every law of sound finance, honest money and common sense that the world had learned over the centuries, the central bankers have ended up creating a monster which will be bring on their own demise.

And none too soon.

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0879 DOWN .0001 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /SLIGHTLY POSITIVE

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.49 UP 0.201(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2917   DOWN   0.0085  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3294 UP .0014 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 1 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 25.12 POINTS OR 0.83% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 249.51 POINTS OR 0.69%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 2.35%// EUROPEAN BOURSES SLIGHTLY POSITIVE

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 249.51 POINTS OR 0.69%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 25.12 POINTS OR 0.83%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN.2.35% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 179.22  POINTS OR 0.79%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1436.00.

silver:$17.91-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.84% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.86 UP 3  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 99.04 DOWN 8 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.28% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.13%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.28%//UP 4 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.99 UP 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 74 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.51% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.50% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0885 UP     .0005 or  5 basis points

USA/Japan: 110.43 UP .142 OR YEN DOWN 14  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3317 UP .0057 POUND UP 57  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 36 basis points to 1.3317

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6    O7.0227N SHORE  (DOWN)..

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0223 (YUAN DOWN)..

 

TURKISH LIRA:  6.1538 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.13%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.33 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.82 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 99.11 UP 15  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 24.59  0.35%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 15.61 POINTS OR .12%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 4.87 POINTS 0.09%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 66.00 POINTS or 0.71%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 332.10 POINTS OR 1.44%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 48.62 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 53.33 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    65.38 THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.06 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 06 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.51 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  48.62//

 

 

BRENT :  53.33

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.33  DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.82  DOWN 2 BASIS PTD.

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.08845 ( UP 5   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.43 UP   .143 (YEN DOWN 14 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 99.11 UP 15 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2898 DOWN 103  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.1538

 

 

the Russian rouble 65.39   DOWN 0.06 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3317 DOWN 36 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  7.0227  (ONSHORE)/

 

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0223 (OFFSHORE)

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.51%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 123.77 POINTS OR 0.46%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 15.16 POINTS OR 0.17%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  27.56 CLOSED DOWN .29

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.637%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Dip-Buyers Battered As Stocks, Bond Yields, & Oil Plunge Intraday

NY Gov Cuomo summed things up best today “no need for undue fear…” which we suggest is the same theme that President Trump will proclaim at 6pmET. TBH it all reminds us of ‘The Naked Gun’…

And sure enough, the overnight exuberance in futures and opening BTFD efforts, failed dramatically as more US cases were reported in Nassau County and NY Gov Cuomo spoke…Dow futs rallied 800 points from overnight lows to the highs at around 1100ET before falling hard…

As we noted earlier, this all fits with comments from the infamous Dennis Gartman, who last year ended his daily newsletter after three decades, who appears to be right in his retirement. Equities are “egregiously” over-valued relative to measures such as sales, profits and the size of the economy. The spread of the coronavirus is threatening global growth, and investors should buy safety assets such as gold and government bonds, he said.

“I’m afraid rallies are to be sold into, not weakness to be bought,” Gartman said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio with John Tucker.

 “I’m amused or dismayed at how many people are still willing to buy the dip, and this dip is far more serious than people want to anticipate at this point.”

Gartman’s view echoes that of Mohamed El-Erian, who wrote on Tuesday that the virus-induced sell-off “isn’t a buy-the-dip opportunity” because there’s little evidence right now supporting the notion of a V-shaped recovery.

Dr.Doom, Nouriel Roubini, is also a skeptic, calling hopes for a quick rebound in China’s economy “delusional.”

It would appear that bond yields, oil prices, and gold safe-haven flows agree…

Source: Bloomberg

China remains the outperformer, despite its being the nexus of the virus impact…

Source: Bloomberg

So much for month-end rebalancing flows…

Nasdaq clung to the green today but the rest of the markets gave up their BTFD gains…

Source: Bloomberg

SPY (the largest most liquid S&P ETF), saw huge outflows this week – the biggest since the start of the carnage in October 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

As Stocks tumbled from overnight highs, the market broke… twice… but it did not help the bounce back

  • 1441ET CBOE OPTIONS DECLARS SELF-HELP AGAINST NASDAQ BX OPTIONS
  • 1511ET NYSE AMERICAN OPTIONS DECLARES SELF-HELP VS NASDAQ BX OPTIONS

Source: Bloomberg

The Dow, Russell 2000, and Trannies broke below their 200DMA; S&P held below its 100DMA and Nasdaq held below its 50DMA…

Bank stocks extended their losses…

Source: Bloomberg

FANG stocks managed very modest gains but Airlines were hit further…

Source: Bloomberg

Amid all this carnage, momentum continues to charge higher…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX, rather stunningly, did not collapse back as it usually does… holding at its highest since Dec 2018

Cash and derivative credit markets continued to worsen…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields tumbled further today…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y crashed to a 1.79 handle and 10Y a 1.19 handle…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve remains drastically inverted…

Source: Bloomberg

The market is now demanding almost 3 rate-cuts in 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

With The Fed’s April and June meetings now more likely than not to see rate-cuts…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar managed modest gains today…

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan was flat today, as it seems PBOC is trying to stabilize the currency against gold (averting its move to a record low against the precious metal)…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos extended their losses today…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin puked back below $9000…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were mixed with gold gaining modestly as oil plunged…

Source: Bloomberg

Smaller than expected crude builds from API and DOE prompted ramps to $50, but as news hit of more US cases and quarantines, oil plunged back to a $48 handle

Copper/Gold reached a record low today, perfectly in sync with 10Y yields…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, if the Y2K analog holds, we have further to fall before there is a meaningful rebound.. that will fail…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, many talking heads are trying to blame some of the drop on the rise of Bernie Sanders as a virus-infected US economy may increase his chance of being elected… Jeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital CEO and Wall Street “bond king,” is pointing the finger at Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders for the market’s tumultuous rout this week.

“If this stock market reversal is due exclusively to the virus, then why is United Healthcare down far more than SPX?” Gundlach wrote in an email to CNBC’s Scott Wapner, referring to the S&P 500.

“Why is healthcare as a sector broadly not outperforming? Answer to these questions: the market is digesting a better than 50% chance of Bernie getting the nomination.”

“Maybe this is the dark side of momentum investing (which is exactly what defines ‘passive’),” Gundlach wrote.

“The market goes down in a knee jerk way on the Bernie rise, but the market going down makes Bernie’s polls go up on his rejection of a market based economy. Which makes the market go down another leg. Rinse and repeat.”

However, a quick glance at the betting lines and it’s clear -Bloomberg is right, a Bernie nomination appears to guarantee a Trump victory…

Source: Bloomberg

S

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Coronavirus Expected to Cause Five-Week Product Shipment Delays, Says Electronics Manufacturing Industry    https://www.morningstar.com/news/globe-newswire/7820360/coronavirus-expected-to-cause-five-week-product-shipment-delays-says-electronics-manufacturing-industry

The equity decline accelerated in the early afternoon on intensifying supply chain concerns and partly due to Covid-19 fear mongering from the CDC and Trump haters that believe they can stir up stuff and hurt Trump politically.

WaPo: Spread of coronavirus in U.S. appears inevitable, [CDC] health officials warn…

“Ultimately, we expect we will see community spread in the United States,” Nancy Messonnier, a top official at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters. “It’s not a question of if this will happen but when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illnesses.”…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-live-updates/2020/02/25/f4045570-5758-11ea-9000-f3cffee23036_story.html

CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in a pandemic

Schools should consider dividing students into smaller groups or close, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters…

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/cdc-outlines-what-closing-schools-businesses-would-look-like-in-us-pandemic.html

@TWlTTERMlKE: The CDC Director who is making everyone freak out is  Dr. Nancy Messonnier.  ROD ROSENSTEIN’S SISTER!

Romney: Trump administration unprepared for coronavirus outbreak

“At this stage, I think we are substantially underinvesting in what would be appropriate for a setting which could be serious,” he added…

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/484555-romney-trump-administration-unprepared-for-coronavirus-outbreak

Schumer: Trump coronavirus response marked by ‘towering and dangerous incompetence’

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/484548-schumer-trump-coronavirus-response-marked-by-towering-and-dangerous

@JohnBasham: The City of San Francisco has declared a state of emergency to “prepare for an outbreak of coronavirus”. There are NO CONFIRMED CASES in the San Francisco area

@lisaabramowicz1: The irony right now is that even as traders price in Fed rate cuts, it isn’t leading to easier financial conditions. Yes, Treasury yields are falling. But corporate debt sales are temporarily drying up & the IPO market is freezing.

Corporate Debt Market Freezes on Virus in Rare Deal Drought

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-25/corporate-debt-market-freezes-on-virus-in-rare-deal-drought

@DamonPavlatos: The ES [S&P 500 Index fut.] Volume was almost triple than the average. The biggest 30 minute volume bar came the last half hour as major selling came in. The Average Daily Range is 112 ticks & today we had 521 ticks. We closed below January’s lows & near the lower range of December

@sentimentrader: The S&P 500 has gone from an all-time high to a 2-month low in less than a week. The only times in 30 years it has done this were Feb and Jul 2007.  Stocks jumped at least 5% at some point over the next few months both times before, you know, tumbling into the abyss.

@MarkNewtonCMT: Breadth closed near 8/1 negative & heading into today, the breakdown in breadth YESTERDAY along w/ price damage were two key reasons why to expect further selling

Kudlow surfaced in the afternoon to sooth market fears.  He generated a short-lived hiccup uptick.

Larry Kudlow says US has contained the coronavirus and the economy is holding up nicely

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/larry-kudlow-says-us-has-contained-the-coronavirus-and-the-economy-is-holding-up-nicely.html

The early going in the Democrat Presidential Debate in South Carolina was another circular firing squad.

 

@RealSaavedra: Bloomberg: “Let’s just go on the record. They talk about 40 Democrats, 21 of those were people that I spent $100 million to help elect. All of the new Democrats that came in, put Pelosi in charge, and gave the Congress the ability to control this president, I bought – I got them”

https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1232482399352606722

 

Fox’s @BrookeSingman: During tonight’s #DemDebate, @ewarren is going after @MikeBloomberg and not @BernieSanders the front-runner, continues to defend #Bernie and talk about how “progressive ideas are popular.”  Could she be open to VP?

 

Joe Biden at the SC debate: “150 million people have been killed [by guns] since 2007 when Bernie voted to exempt the gun manufacturers from liability…”  https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1232482744401158150

 

@kayleighmcenany: Bernie just called one of our greatest allies a “racist.” He literally just called Netanyahu a racist.

 

Joe Biden tells South Carolina crowd that he is running for the SENATE as fears for his health begin to grow – Biden, 77, said if voters didn’t like him they should ‘vote for the other Biden’

   “My name is Joe Biden. I’m a Democratic candidate for the United States Senate…if you don’t like me, you can vote for the other Biden.”…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8041875/Joe-Biden-tells-South-Carolina-crowd-running-SENATE-fears-health-grow.html

 

Biden Claims He Worked with Chinese Leader Deng Xiaoping on Paris Climate Accord… Except Xiaoping Has Been Dead for 23 Years    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/02/biden-claims-he-worked-with-chinese-leader-deng-xiaoping-on-paris-climate-accord-except-xiaoping-has-been-dead-for-23-years-video/

 

Bernie said if elected, he “will provide help to African-American, Latino. Native American community to start businesses to sell legal marijuana…” [The audience laughed.]

https://twitter.com/MarkDice/status/1232493999774003200

 

‘Gray Matter’–Deficient Americans

The disdain for the working and middle classes shown by wealthy liberals who supposedly champion labor is matched by the disdain of progressive government bureaucrats, media, and left-wing Hollywood celebrities. In one amorous exchange to his paramour Lisa Page, fellow FBI agent and Trump hater Peter Strzok said, “Just went to a Southern Virginia Walmart. I could SMELL the Trump support.”… Describing the crowd at a Trump rally, Politico reporter Marc Caputo tweeted, “If you put everyone’s mouths together in this video, you’d get a full set of teeth.”…

    Bloomberg claims he could teach anyone on an Oxford stage how to be a farmer. But he knows that he has no knowledge of farming, ancient or modern, and has no detailed notion of where or how his fruits, vegetables, grains, and choice cuts arrive at his various estates and hence his table. He may even sense that while the world could do without Bloomberg News, it could not survive without skilled farmers. So he is a bit edgy when he thinks about the physical world of muscle that allows him to be Mike Bloomberg, multibillionaire Socratic dunce…  https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/02/gray-matter-deficient-americans/

 

Judge on Roger Stone Case Goes After Tucker Carlson, Trump over Comments about Juror

https://dailycaller.com/2020/02/25/roger-stone-judge-tucker-carlson-juror/

 

@Barnes_Law: Supreme Court Justice Marshall: our constitutional rights are “most severely jeopardized when courts conceal from the public sensitive information that bears upon the ability of jurors impartially to weigh the evidence presented to them.

    The #RogerStone judge wasn’t mad that a juror lied to get on the jury to rig the verdict against Roger. The judge was mad that press & public — like @TuckerCarlson & @Cernovich  — exposed it to the world. That is what a Rigged Trial looks like.  Judge, after asking leading questions to educate the juror about how to answer questions to cover up the juror’s bias & juror’s probable misleading answers in jury selection, now trying to cut off counsel’s questioning of the juror that proves the juror’s bias.

 

@PeterSweden7: It has now been over 24 hours since a man deliberately drove into a crowd in Germany.

52 injured were, 18 of which are children. We still barely know anything about who did it and why. Why don’t we know more about this yet?

Well that is all for today

I will see you Friday night.

 

 

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