JULY 1//GOLD DOWN $12.90 TO $1770.90//SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TO $17.97 : TOMORROW FOMC//GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AT THE COMEX: NORTH OF 16 TONNES//CHINA PASSES ITS NATIONAL SECURITY BILL/HONG KONGERS PROTEST//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/?

GOLD::$1770.90  DOWN $12.90   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.97// DOWN 23 CENTS  London spot price

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1770.20  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $18.02//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

AUG GOLD:  $1780.00  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE JUNE: $9.10

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER SEPT COMEX CLOSE;   $18.23…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE JULY//  :  26 CENTS  PER OZ

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2600. usa per oz

and silver; $29.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

TOMORROW WE WILL HAVE THE JOBS REPORT AND AS USUAL, THEY WHACK THE DAY BEFORE/

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  195/484

issued  159

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,793.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/30/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 07/02/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 14
072 H GOLDMAN 55
132 C SG AMERICAS 4
152 C DORMAN TRADING 8
159 C ED&F MAN CAP 2
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 3
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 8
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 94
661 C JP MORGAN 159 195
661 H JP MORGAN 168
690 C ABN AMRO 19 23
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 69 25
800 C MAREX SPEC 60 49
878 C PHILLIP CAPITAL 4
905 C ADM 3 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 484 484
MONTH TO DATE: 3,800

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 484 NOTICE(S) FOR 48,400 OZ (1.505 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  3800 NOTICES FOR 380,000 OZ  (11.819 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JULY

 

 

810 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 4,050,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 12,268 for 61,340,000 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $9159  UP 21  

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $9240 UP $102

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

 

GLD: 1,178.90 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

A HUGE 5.04 MILLION OZ DEPOSIT INTO THE SLV

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 498.007  MILLION OZ./

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2270 CONTRACTS FROM 171,688 DOWN  TO 169,418, AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN  OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG 39 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE CONCLUSION OF OUR SPREADER LIQUIDATION (AS WE END JUNE)_,  ALONG WITH  STRONG  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, ACCOMPANYING  A SMALL DECREASE  IN SILVER STANDING  AT THE COMEX FOR JULY.  WE HAD A NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1724 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A HUGEAMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   JULY: 0  AND SEP 489 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  489 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 489 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 489 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 2.445 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 39 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

83.335MILLION OZ INITIALLY IN JULY.

 

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 39 CENTS).. AND,OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE NO DOUBT  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. THE STRONG LOSS AT THE COMEX WAS ACCOMPANIED BY : i)  A STRONG (AND ITS CONCLUSION) OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION, ii) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A SMALL DECLINE IN STANDING OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY,  STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A STRONG NET LOSS OF 1781 CONTRACTS OR 8.6200 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

SPREADING OPERATIONS//JUNE 30..LAST DAY/TOMORROW WE BEGIN THE PROCESS AS WE SWITCH FROM SILVER TO GOLD

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO SILVER…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JULY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY FOR SILVER:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

JULY

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF JULY:

489 CONTRACTS (FOR 1 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 489 CONTRACTS) OR 2.445 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 489 CONTRACTS OR 2.445 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY: 2.445 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 0.34% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,139.82 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EXP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EXP                               2.445 MILLION OZ/

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE FOR THE PAST 60 DAYS IS A LOT LESS.  NO DOUBT THAT THE COST TO CARRY THESE THINGS HAS EXPLODED  AND AS SUCH CANNOT BE DONE AS FREQUENTLY AS BEFORE.

 

RESULT: WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2270, DESPITE OUR 39 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///TUESDAYTHE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 489 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE LOST A  STRONG SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1781 CONTRACTS (DESPITE OUR 39 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)//WITH THE DOMINANT FACTOR OF OI LOSS BEING THE CONCLUSION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE.

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 489 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED DECREASE OF 2270 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED DESPITE A 39 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.20 // TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.8470 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 121% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  JULY  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 810 NOTICE(S) FOR 4,050,000 MILLION OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 83.335 million oz
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 13,843 CONTRACTS TO 561,628 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE HUGE SIZED GAIN OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG ADVANCE IN PRICE  OF $16.80 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY// WE  HAD STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING, ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED  GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JULY, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A FAIR EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $16.80 .

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  25

 

WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 18,288 CONTRACTS  (56,88 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 4445 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT .; AUG 4445 AND DEC: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 4445.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 561,628. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 18,288 CONTRACTS: 13,843 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4445 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 18M288 CONTRACTS OR 56.88 TONNES. TUESDAY, WE HAD A GAIN OF $16.80 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 56.88 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR  SUPPLIED INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT ROSE $16.80).AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WAS  UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

 

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (4445) ACCOMPANYING THE GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (13,843 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  19,397 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A STRONG  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT JULY MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION; 4) HUGE COMEX OI GAIN.. AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//TUESDAY//$16.80.

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY : 4445 CONTRACTS OR 444,500 oz OR 13.82 TONNES (1 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4445 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 13.82 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 13.82/3550 x 100% TONNES =0.389% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3041.42  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                      13.82 TONNES SO FAR..

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2270 CONTRACTS FROM 171,688 DOWN TO 169,418 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO;   1) STRONG SPREADER LIQUIDATION (ITS CONCLUSION/JUNE 30) AND AS WELL WE HAD 2) STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING , 3) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 4) A SMALL DECREASE STANDING AT THE SILVER COMEX FOR JULY AND  5) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 489 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 489 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 489 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS  OF 2270  CONTRACTS TO THE 489 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A  LOSS OF 1781 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8.905 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH THE 39 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 39 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 489 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 41.31 POINTS OR 1.38%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 125.91 POINTS OR 0.52%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 166.41 POINTS OR 0.45%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .66%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0671 /Oil UP TO 39.96 dollars per barrel for WTI and 41.84 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0671 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0691 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED /CORONAVIRUS /PANDEMIC : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE 13,843 CONTRACTS TO 561,628 MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS HUGE  COMEX ADVANCE OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $16.80 IN GOLD PRICING /TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE (4445 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER HUMONGOUS STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//JULY DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) , …  AS WE ENGINEERED AN ATMOSPHERIC GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 18,288 CONTRACTS WITH GOLD’S HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. NOTE THE FACT THAT THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ARE SMALL..BANKERS ARE BANNED FROM USING THE SERIAL FORWARDS.  IF THEY USE THIS VEHICLE IT MUST BE USED FOR PHYSICAL ONLY.

 

 

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 25

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4445 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  AUG  4445 AND 0 FOR DEC AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4445 CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  18,288 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 4445 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GIGANTIC SIZED 13,843 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A SMALL  AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ACCOMPANYING OUR GIGANTIC COMEX OI GAIN,  A HUGE  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR THE JULY DELIVERY (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)… AND ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION……AND WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN COMEX PRICE OF  16.80 DOLLARS..

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $16.80).  AND, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS 

AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED AN ATMOSPHERIC 56.33 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 18,288 CONTRACTS OR 1,828,800 OZ OR 56.88 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  561,628 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 56.16 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1747 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1747/2200 OR 79.40% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 131,336 contracts//poor//most traders have moved to London

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  217,392 contracts//  volume fair //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

JULY 1 /2020

JULY GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
18,519.940 oz
BRINKS
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 17,169.598 oz

BRINKS

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

154,332.204

OZ

LOOMIS

HSBC

MANFRA

 

INCLUDES

402

KILOBARS

LOOMIS

No of oz served (contracts) today
484 notice(s)
 48400 OZ
(1.505 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1536 contracts
(153600 oz)
4.777 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3,800 notices
380,000 OZ
11.819 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 1 deposit into the dealer

i) Into Brinks:  17,169,598

 

total deposit: 17,169.598 oz

 

DEALER WITHDRAWAL: 0

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 3 deposits into the customer account

 

 

i) Into HSBC:   15,853.44 oz

ii) Into  LOOMIS: 12,924.300  oz  (402 kilobars

 

iii) Into Malca:  125,554.464 oz

 

 

total deposit:  154,332.204 oz

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

i) Out of Brinks  18,519.940 oz

 

total gold withdrawals;  18,519.940  oz

We had 1  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 0 //    

 

 

 

The front month of JULY registered a total of 2020 oi contracts FOR a LOSS of 2,472 contracts. We had 3316 notices served on Tuesday so we GAINED  a whopping 844 contracts or an additional 84,400 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into London based forwards.

 

 

Next comes August another strong delivery month and here the OI ROSE by A STRONG 11,698  contracts UP to 393,339 contracts.

Sept saw its initial 36 contracts to stand at 36.  Oct gained 786 contracts up to 36,163.

 

We had 484 notices filed today for 48,400 oz

 

FOR THE JULY 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 2159 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 195 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 195 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 69 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3800) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JULY (2020 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (484 x 100 oz per contract) equals 533,600 OZ OR 16.597 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (3800 x 100 oz + (2020 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (484) x 100 oz which equals 533,600 oz standing OR 16.597 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE record amount for gold standing for a JULY delivery month (a  non active delivery month).

We are now witnessing an increase in queue jumping on a daily basis

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

312,441.780 oz PLEDGED  JUNE 24// 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.036 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

19,290.600 oz Pledged May 8/2020   INT DELAWARE:  .600 TONNES

 

477,821.587 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/               14.865 tonnes

total pledged gold:  996,191.227.127 oz                             31.017 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 366.40 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS ie. 16.597 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  12,776,042.408 oz or 397.39 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (SOME  DELETED JUNE 24 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  312,441.780 oz (or 9.718 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    19,290.600 oz  which cannot be settled:   (.600 tonnes)
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  21,026.754 oz which cannot be settled June 5 (.65402 tonnes)
g) pledged gold at Brinks: 456,794,87 oz added which cannot be settled:  14.208 tonnes
total brinks:  477,821.587 oz
total weight of pledged:  996,191.227 oz or 31.017 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 11,779,851.0  (366.40 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  11,779,851.0 (366.40 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  19,508,487.502 oz (606.795 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   32, 284,529.910 oz 1004.18 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  877.84 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of April 2018. and it continues to present day.  Thus 24 data entry points.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.  Gold owners are very clear people.  They would know full well that

the gold at the comex is unallocated and that they would not be stupid enough to keep their gold at the comex especially in the registered category once deliveries are asked upon. If physical gold was present it would be have removed from the comex… It shows there is no gold at the comex.  They are just trading in sticky paper.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

JULY 1/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2270 CONTRACTS FROM 171,688 DOWN TO 169,418 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,384 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS DUE TO;   1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A SMALL DECREASE AMOUNT OF  SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE JULY CONTRACT MONTH ,  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 5) FINAL PHASE OF OUR SPREADER LIQUIDATION.

WE STILL HAVE A HUMONGOUS AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JULY.

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 489 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 489 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 489 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS  OF 2213  CONTRACTS TO THE 489 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG LOSS OF 1781 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8.905 MILLION  OZ OCCURRED WITH THE 39 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///HOWEVER THE DOMINANT LOSS IN OI WAS DUE TO FINAL SPREADER LIQUIDATION ON THE LAST TRADING DAY OF THE MONTH.

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 39 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 489 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

JULY 1/2020

JULY SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 743,402.02 oz
Brinks
HSBC
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
583,400.670 oz
Brinks

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,981,050.806 oz
Loomis
Delaware
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
810
CONTRACT(S)
(4,050,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
4399 contracts
 21,995,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  12,268 contracts

61,340,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 1 deposit into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: 583,400.670 oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 3 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii) Into Delaware:  3989.166 oz

 

 

iiii) Into Loomis:  1,761,241.400  oz

iv) Into Scotia: 215,820.240

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.78% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/322.999 million

 

total customer deposits today: 1,981,050.806    oz

we had 3 withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks 100,202.760

ii) Out of HSBC: 48,489.360 oz

 

ii) Out of Scotia:  594,709.900 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 743,402.02   oz

We had 3 adjustments

Customer account to Dealer:

i) Loomis:  910,412.500

 

total dealer silver: 125.477 million

total dealer + customer silver:  322.999 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The front month of July has an open interest of  5209 contracts, as we lost 11,625 contracts.  We had 11,458 notices served on Tuesday, so we LOST  167 contracts or an additional 835,000 oz will NOT stand in this active delivery month of July as they received a London based forward and a fiat bonus for their effort..

 

 

The next month after July is the non active month of  August and here  sees its open interest FELL by 5 contracts DOWN to 692

The big September contract month sees a gain of 8961 contracts up to 133,223.

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JULY 2020. contract month is represented by 810 contract(s) FOR 4,050,000 MILLION, oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 12,268 x 5,000 oz = 61,340,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY.(5209) and the number of notices served upon today 810 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JULY/2019 contract month: 12,268 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (5209)- number of notices served upon today (810) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month.equals 83,335,000 oz.  (A WHOPPER )

WE LOST 167 CONTRACTS OR 835,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND ON DAY 2.  HOWEVER IF HISTORY SERVES US WELL, WE WILL WITNESS SHORTLY QUEUE JUMPING AS THE BANKS(BULLLION DEALERS) TRY TO SQUANDER AS MUCH SILVER AS THEY GAIN.

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:38,157 CONTRACTS // volume poor/

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 83,359.,CONFIRMED VOLUME//volume very  good/

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 83,359 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 416 million  OZ  59.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO+ 0.33% ((JULY 1/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -0.20% to NAV:   (JULY 1/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into POSITIVE/ 0.33%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 16.82 TRADING 16.84///POSITIVE 0.10

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 30//WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 29/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.61 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $5.03 TODAY: VERY STRANGE: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.46 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1175.39 TONNES

JUNE 25//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.6 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1176.85 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.50 TODAY;  A STRONG 3.21 TONNES ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.25  TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $25.50 TODAY/ANOTHER CRIMINAL PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1166.04 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 23.09 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.31 TONNES

JUNE 19/WITH GOLD UP$16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//; INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 18//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 16//WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $8.80 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 12//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 11//WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 6.55 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1135.05 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1129.50 TONNES

JUNE 9//WITH GOLD UP $16.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.63 TONNES OF GOLD AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1125.48 TONNES

JUNE 8//WITH GOLD UP $18.70 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.10 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1128.11 TONNES

 

JUNE 5//WITH GOLD DOWN $40.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.21 TONNES

JUNE 4//WITH GOLD UP $20.60: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD…A DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1133.37 TONNES

JUNE 3//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.15//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//A DEPOSIT OF 0.78 TONNES OF GLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1129.28 TONNES

JUNE 2//WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1128.40 TONNES

JUNE 1//WITH GOLD UP $1.30//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES OF GOLD//GLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1123.14 TONNES

MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $19.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///GLD INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 28//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS  AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD UP $.10 TODAY: A STRONG 2.34 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1119.05 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

JULY 1/ GLD INVENTORY 1178.90 tonnes*

LAST;  851 TRADING DAYS:   +235.00 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 751 TRADING DAYS://+413.18  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.403 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.007 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 466,000 OZ TO PAY FOR STORAGE FEES AND INSURANCE//// AND A LARGE DEPOSIT OF 1.212 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 931,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 24///WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS// NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.473 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 486/454 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 19//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE!!  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 839,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486,454 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 932,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.293 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.261 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.361 MILLION OZ

JUNE 16//WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.118 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.100 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.982  MILLION OZ///

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.269 MILLION OZ AND 1.802 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 481.982 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 11//WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.89 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER  UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.849 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.605 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.849 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE WITHDRAWALS OF 932,000 MILLION OZ AND 1.491 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.240 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 648,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.663  MILLION OZ

JUNE 4//WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

 

JUNE 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 2//WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUMONGOUS 6.686 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 1//WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.56 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 466.629 MILLION OZ//

MAY 29//WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.796 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 463.273 MILLION OZ//

MAY 28//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.660 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.477 MILLION OZ//

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.817 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 1.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

498.007 MILLION OZ.

END

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES//  GOLD LEASE RATES

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 3.66/ and libor 6 month duration 0.37

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

GOLD LENDING RATE: -3.29%

NEGATIVE GOLD LEASING RATES INCREASING BY A HUGE AMOUNT//GOLD SCARCITY AND CENTRAL BANKS CALLING IN ALL OF THEIR GOLD LEASES

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.51%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 0.55

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -1.96%

 

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

GoldCore

Gold Outperforms All Assets In 2020 YTD as Enters Seasonal Sweet Spot of July, August and September

1, July


Source: Finiz.com

Gold is the top performing asset in the world in the first half of 2020, outperforming all stock markets including the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq and outperforming “safe haven” U.S. government bonds (see table above).

Gold had an 18% gain in dollars in the first half of 2020 as risk assets, especially stock markets, fell sharply with the S&P down 4.5% and other stock markets down more than 10% (see table).

Gold gained 18.6% in euros and by 25% in British pounds as the UK economy had the worst contraction since 1979 and the pound was further devalued.

The historical data in the last 20 to 40 years shows that seasonally gold and silver tend to do poorly in June and very well in the summer months in July and August and extending into September. Indeed late June and early to mid July tend to see quite a degree of selling and weakness prior to strong gains from mid July and into August and September (see chart above).

New record gold price highs over $1,915/oz are becoming the consensus now as the virus prompts reactionary measures including massive and unprecedented stimulus, fiscal spending and bail outs of corporate Americas and corporations globally. Governments and central banks are desperately trying to minimize the damage economic and societal lockdowns are having on an already massively indebted, to the tune of around $300 trillion, global economy.

Prudent investors will continue to diversify into gold and more undervalued silver in the form of physical bullion coins and bars in vaults globally and into more high risk paper and electronic gold including crypto products and gold and silver exchange traded funds (ETFs).

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold ‘sprints’ to near 8-year top as virus fears resurge

Gold looks to post largest quarterly gain in 4 years; talk of record prices by year end grows

Gold Futures Contract breaks past $1,800, First time since 2012

Citi raises gold price forecast

NY Fed’s Williams says full recovery will likely take years

World shares end stellar quarter but still down in 2020

Dow closes out best quarter since 1987 but down 10% YTD as investors weigh in on what comes next

Own gold coins and bars in the safest vaults in Zurich, Switzerland with GoldCore. Learn why Switzerland remains a safe haven jurisdiction for owning precious metals. Access Our Most Popular Guide, the Essential Guide to Storing Gold in Switzerland here

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

30-Jun-20 1770.70 1768.10, 1444.18 1436.58 & 1580.35 1577.32
29-Jun-20 1768.80 1771.60, 1434.67 1440.31 & 1571.23 1573.54
26-Jun-20 1762.10 1747.60, 1420.61 1414.51 & 1570.03 1559.91
25-Jun-20 1758.55 1756.55, 1412.64 1414.73 & 1565.29 1565.79
24-Jun-20  1775.70 1766.05, 1420.74 1416.90 & 1573.63 1567.55
23- Jun-20  1755.60 1768.90, 1409.85 1416.36 & 1556.17 1560.70
22-Jun-20  1745.45 1761.85, 1405.26 1418.11 & 1555.72 1567.17
19-Jun-20  1728.55 1734.75, 1392.17 1401.16 & 1541.18 1545.49
18-Jun-20  1732.65 1719.50, 1384.73 1383.51 & 1539.29 1532.93
17-Jun-20  1717.30 1724.35, 1368.69 1375.17 & 1527.88 1537.26
16-Jun-20  1728.35 1719.85, 1366.61 1361.78 & 1525.44 1526.54
15- Jun-20  1710.40 1710.45, 1365.58 1361.52 & 1520.72 1516.83
12-Jun-20  1735.85 1733.50, 1374.10 1378.13 & 1533.28 1534.15

Access Latest Goldnomics Podcast (Part II) Here


Mark O’Byrne Executive Director

end

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

a must read…

two very important points

  1. the comex has turned into a physical market as it seems that the only physical supplies are to be found here
  2.  JPMorgan is violating position limit regulations in silver but the CFTC are ignoring it.

Craig Hemke

 

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Extreme Comex delivery demand continues

 Section: 

6:30p ET Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Offtake of gold and silver — real metal — has exploded at the New York Commodities Exchange, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke writes tonight at Sprott Money, suddenly transforming the exchange into a physical market and signifying desperation by the bullion banks trying to cap prices.

Additionally, Hemke reports that JPMorganChase is violating position-limit regulations in silver, though of course regulations will never be enforced against that bullion bank.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Extreme Comex Delivery Demand Continues” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/extreme-comex-delivery-demand-continues…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

A must view

Alasdair Macleod states that corporates bankruptcies are already starting and that expect by next month we will see collapsing banks.  This will force the Fed et al for more money creation.

(Kingworldnews/Alasdair Macleod)

 

Corporate bankruptcies will collapse banks, GoldMoney’s Macleod tells KWN

 Section: 

7:33p ET Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod, interviewed today by Eric King at King World News, says corporate bankruptcies may begin collapsing banks as soon as next month, prompting more money creation by governments and more nationalization of economies.

Macleod adds that the whole fiat currency system might collapse after that.

The interview is 17 minutes long and can be heard at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/alasdair-macleod-6-27-2020/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

Precious Metals Pummeled – Who Needs Safe-Havens When We Have A ‘Vaccine’?

Medical data on 24 people promoted via press release… stocks panic-bid and precious metals puked…

This morning’s vaccine headlines were enough to prompt selling to accelerate into the London Fix and bust stops through $1800…

 

Silver was also hit but remains above $18…

 

What more did you expect after Gold made all the headlines yesterday? Benoit’s back!

 

end

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/07/01/day-2not-allowed/

 

Day 2…Not Allowed!

 

Posted July 1st, 2020 at 9:18 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

 

Great and Wonderful First Day of July Folks,

 

They can’t let the markets show the fear after it was discovered Shanghai had far more Copper than Gold in their Gold bars with Gold now down $4.80 at $1,795.70 after a new high was made at $1,807.70 with the London low right here at $1,792. Silver is also “not allowed” to rally like it did yesterday with its trade at $18.52, down 11.7 cents after it made a new high at $18.85 with the London low at $18.46. Our forever printed US Dollar still seems to have universal support from the central banks with its value pegged at 97.515, up 16.6 points with the London high nearby at 97.56 with the low at 97.205. Of course, all this happened already before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after the Seattle mayor slammed protesters for showing no ‘regard for’ her ‘safety’ as demonstrators circle her home. We say to her, “if you like ANTIFA invading your city, you can keep them!” In fact, you should really enjoy feeding them and taking care of them at your home too. Btw, if you arrest them, they’re “get out of jail free credit cards” will allow them the chance to go back to your door, again, and again, and again. You, Ms. Mayor, own all of this, and it is your responsibility to protect everyone in your city, not just your voters, all of them!

 

Venezuela’s price for Gold gained 143.82 Bolivar with the trade at 17,934.55, Silver’s value also gained 4.245 with the trade at 184.969 Bolivar. Argentina’s currency has Gold priced at 126,513.39 Peso’s proving a gain of 1,231.98 overnight with Silver gaining 40.84 A-Peso’s with the last price at 1,305.12. Turkey’s Lira now has Gold valued at 12,310.44, giving the noble metal a 98.41 T-Lira gain with Silver now worth 126.970 T-Lira, showing a gain of 2.911.

 

July Silver’s Delivery Demands now sit at 5,209 fully paid for contracts with a Volume of 284 already up on the board with a trading range between $18.705 and $18.405 with the last trade at $18.48, down 6.1 cents so far today. Yesterday’s activities inside the delivery month happened between $18.53 and $17.94 with the last buy at $18.465 with the Common Core Calculated Close up at $18.541, above all “buys”. A total Volume of 1,718 contracts swapped hands yesterday as 11,625 contracts somehow got lifted making yesterday’s comment “don’t expect much” looking weak. Yet how can 11,625 contracts fit inside a Volume that low? It is possible that this reduction is Mr. Resolute getting his receipts in immediate fashion? Even Harvey’s EFP data doesn’t jive with this drop either. Silver’s Overall Open Interest fell by 2,237 leaving a total of 169,476 Overnighters going against the buy. The reduction in the deliveries is far more than the Overall Open Interest, let’s see what happens from here.

 

July Gold’s Delivery Demands now total 2,013 fully paid for contracts with a Volume of 237 already up on the board inside a trading range between $1,798 and $1,784.20 with the last trade at the London low, so far today. Yesterday’s trading activity inside the delivery month happened in between $1,793.20 and $1,774.40 with the last buy at $1,791.30 with a total Volume of 986, reducing the demand count by 2,479. The Shorts have to be in a panic now, as witnessed by the activity behind the price, as Gold’s Overall Open Interest jumped to 562,737 Overnighters as another 14,863 pieces of liquidity got added into the mix after the Shanghai Gold Bar Scandal.

 

Remember when HSBC put into our markets a new level of CFTC preapproved paper right into Comex Gold without explanation? That approval caused Gold’s Open Interest to rise to a life of paper contract high of 794,541. That event just so happened to occur around the time when Silver was at peak paper, when the March Options came off the board, and sending the OI count from 246,078 down to 135,000 +/- with in a months’ time. Are they connected? Did the governing bodies help out? Is there hanky panky still going on even after Bart Chilton’s last interview with Chris Marcus where Bart stated the CFTC approved JPMorgan’s overleveraged Silver contracts? Did their “hidden from public view” agreement include Copper? Is this part of what the DOJ is looking into?

 

We may never get all the answers we need, but one thing for sure; cheap prices cure cheap prices, and too high a price, cures too high a price. This describes the battle we’re in, on a global playing field, between Precious Metals and Uncollectable International Debt, as the world churns over a bio, and as our nation head towards an election where a foreign nation has accused one candidate, evidenced in a phone recording, explicitly detailing the quid-pro-quo arrangement, running against a president, who has withstood every single impeachment accusation, that can be made up out of thin air, comes to a head. Please God let there be a debate!

 

Stay Positive, no matter what! It is my believe that Positive People live longer. Keep the faith and a Prayer for all, and as always …

 

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

More J.Johnson content is available with purchase of a JSMineset subscription.

end

Gerald Celente and Greg Hunter

Politicians Killed Economy & It Ain’t Coming Back – Gerald Celente

By Greg HunterOn July 1, 2020

Gerald Celente, a top trends researcher and Publisher of The Trends Journal, declared back in March that the “Greatest Depression” had already started.  Now, he says politicians who are power tripping “imbeciles and freaks out of their minds” closed down the economy for political gain in an attempt to stop President Trump from winning a second term in November.  Celente explains, “They destroyed the economy.  The economy is dead.  These little liberals, I am surrounded by them here . . . Cuomo loving liberals, when it started, they all said it will come back.  It’s not coming back.  The economy is dead, and the politicians killed it. . . . They are doing this as a power trip and to show President Trump is not doing the right thing.  So, they are looking at it like that. . . . If Trump were smart, and I think this is the card he is going to play, he’s going to blame the shutdown of the economy on the Democrats.  I don’t like either party because I am a political atheist, but he’s going to blame it on them and rightfully so.  Trump is going to say the reason you are out of work, the reason you lost your business, the reason you have escalating crime is because the ‘Democraps’ closed down the economy.  That’s the way I see him playing out the Trump card.”

In previous interviews on USAWatchdog.com, Celente predicted that when gold reached $1,485 per ounce, that it would begin to take off and never look back.  It looks like that prediction has come true.  Now, Celente says look for gold to be going much higher.  Celente says, “You look at gold prices.  Look at where gold prices are going.  How long have I been saying this?  When all this began, I said boom, you are going to see gold spike, and now it’s around $1,800 per ounce.  Silver is going to follow when gold breaks $2,000 per ounce.  It’s because this economy is going down, and it’s not coming back.  According to Yelp, 53% of the restaurants will not be reopening.  On average, 43% of the businesses won’t be reopening, and the bigs are going to gobble it up.  Here’s a headline, ‘Big hotels could benefit from aid.’  That’s right, more billions and billions of dollars are going to big hotels. . . . Why are the markets up?  The Federal Reserve is going to pump money into our big guys who got richer by about $650 billion since this started.  We are all becoming workers on the plantation of ‘Slavelandia,’ and here are some crumbs for you.”

Celente says the Democrat party are now communists and Marxists, and he thinks they will employ their tactics.  Celente predicts, “You are going to see violence like we have never seen before this summer.  You are going to see police against the people, and it’s going to become more militarized as it becomes more violent.  If we don’t unite for peace and restore freedom, America is dead.”

In closing, Celente thinks Trump can win a second term and says, “All he has to do is win the swing states.  That’s it.”

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Gerald Celente, publisher of The Trends Journal.

-END-

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0671/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0691   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 41.31 POINTS OR 1.38%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 125.91 POINTS OR 0.52%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 166.41 POINTS OR 0.75%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.55/Euro FALLS TO 1.1206

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.05/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.46/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 39.96 and Brent: 41.84

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.41%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.28% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.51%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.69: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.15

3k Gold at $1779.80 silver at: 18.26   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 8/100 in roubles/dollar) 71.12

3m oil into the 39 dollar handle for WTI and 41 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.46 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9480 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0623 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.41%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.68% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.45%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.855..

Futures Slide In Downbeat Start To New Quarter

Following Tuesday’s last 10 minute spike which only emerged as there were not as many sellers as some had predicted (such as JPMorgan whose forecast of $170BN in forced quarter-end selling failed to materialize), global markets have been under pressure to start the new quarter, and S&P futures fell on Wednesday as today the corona mood was one of concern over hope (this is sure to reverse tomorrow) as a record single-day spike in coronavirus cases in the country heightened fears of another lockdown, while fresh signs of geopolitical tensions involving Hong Kong where the first protesters were arrested under the new security law also triggered some selling.

 

After notching up its biggest three-month gains since 1998 in the previous session, the S&P 500 looked set to begin the third quarter on a glum note as COVID-19 cases rose by more than 47,000 on Tuesday, with California, Texas and Arizona emerging as new epicenters.  A warning from Anthony Fauci that the number of daily cases could soon double to 100,000 also took the shine off data showing a slump in global manufacturing was easing as economies reopened from sweeping lockdowns imposed to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus.

US equity futures extended losses after the U.K.’s foreign secretary said China’s national security legislation constitutes a “clear violation” of the autonomy of Hong Kong.  Battered cruise line operators Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Royal Caribbean Cruises and Carnival Corp tumbled between 2.3% and 2.6% in premarket trading. In a bright spot, FedEx jumped 11.5% after posting better-than-expected quarterly profit and revenue, helped by a surge in pandemic-fueled home deliveries.

“We feel like a lot of the good news is priced in,” Jim McDonald, chief investment strategist at Northern Trust, said on Bloomberg TV. “The market’s got some optimism that we are going to see more of a V-shaped recovery, so there is risk of some modest disappointment.”

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index erased an earlier advance as data showed German unemployment rose to the highest level in nearly five years and U.K. businesses reported a record slump in sales.

 

Many European markets were shuttered for much of the morning due to a technical outage at German electronic trading platform Xetra.

 

Asian stocks were little changed, with health care falling and energy rising, after rising in the last session. Most markets in the region were up, with Shanghai Composite gaining 1.4% and India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index rising 1.3%, while Japan’s Topix Index dropped 1.3% after data showed confidence among large manufacturers in Japan fell to the lowest since 2009, while stocks ticked higher in Shanghai and Sydney. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.4%, with Hebei Hengshui and Greenland Holdings posting the biggest advances. Trading volume for MSCI Asia Pacific Index members was 12% above the monthly average for this time of the day.

Yield edged higher and the dollar was steady ahead of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s June meeting. Gold was near $1,800 an ounce.

Treasuries pressured lower following a wider bear-steepening move across the German curve. Gilts also pressured lower following drop in demand for U.K. 30-year bond sale, also weighing on Treasuries. Upside pressure on yields emerged from the cash open as month- and quarter-end support evaporates. Yields were cheaper by as much as 3bp across the curve with long-end- led losses steepening 2s10s, 5s30s by~2bp; 10-year yields around 0.68%, cheaper by ~2.5bp. Bunds and gilts underperform by around 1.5bp each vs. Treasuries, weighing into the early New York session. Five-year note’s yield declined to a record low 0.264% on June 30 with outperformance driven by expectations for Federal Reserve policy, specifically the prospect of yield-curve control.

In FX, the dollar reversed an earlier drop as risk assets slumped into the European trading session; the euro slumped to the lowest level in months while Norway’s krone was largely unchanged before rallying with oil prices. The yen gained against almost Group-of-10 currencies as Japanese shares declined and concerns over the spread of coronavirus spurred haven demand; the currency advanced agains the dollar for first time in six days.  Sweden’s krona traded little changed against the euro after shrugging off the central bank’s decision to boost QE.

In commodities, oil rose after its best quarter in almost three decades following a report pointing to the first drop in U.S. crude stockpiles since May. Gold saw some modest weakness as risk assets rolled over.

Figures on U.S. manufacturing activity and private payrolls for June are due later in the day, followed by the Labor Department’s closely watched nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday. The closely watched FOMC minutes are also due at 2pm today.

Markets Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 3,085.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 361.42
  • MXAP down 0.01% to 157.85
  • MXAPJ up 0.4% to 515.33
  • Nikkei down 0.8% to 22,121.73
  • Topix down 1.3% to 1,538.61
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 24,427.19
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.4% to 3,025.98
  • Sensex up 1.4% to 35,411.86
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 5,934.40
  • Kospi down 0.08% to 2,106.70
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.7 bps to -0.437%
  • Euro up 0.04% to $1.1238
  • Brent Futures up 2.9% to $42.45/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.9 bps to 1.131%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.9 bps to 0.486%
  • Brent Futures up 2.9% to $42.45/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,787.81
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 97.27

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • German unemployment surged in June as one of the country’s leading economic research institutes warned of a slower-than- expected economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.
  • Factories across the euro area recorded a stronger performance than initially reported in June, a final manufacturing PMI showed, with consumer-goods producers growing again. But despite countries easing restrictions and life slowly returning to normal, output continued to contract and demand — especially among exporters — remained weak
  • China described Hong Kong’s new security law as a “sword of Damocles” hanging over its most strident critics, after Beijing asserted broad new powers to rein in sources of opposition, from pro-democracy protesters to news agencies to overseas dissidents
  • A spike in Libor rates at the height of the coronavirus crisis drove up financing costs and offset the benefits of interest-rate cuts, the Financial Stability Board said
  • The government of the euro zone’s third- biggest economy sold consumers a semi-retail bond called BTP Italia in May with record results, and now officials are marketing a first fully retail-based security for sale next week. This one is dubbed as BTP Futura
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin is on course to secure a resounding endorsement of his bid to extend his two-decade-long rule potentially up to 2036, as the Kremlin faces criticism for its heavy-handed efforts to marshal support
  • Asia’s factory managers saw glimmers of hope in June, with the region’s purchasing managers indexes turning up across the board as demand from China picked up

Asian equity markets began H2 with a mild positive bias after Wall St extended on gains to top off its best quarterly performance in over 2 decades amid vaccine optimism and outperformance in the energy and tech sectors, while better than expected Chinese Caixin PMI data also contributed to the upbeat mood in overnight trade. ASX 200 (+0.6%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.8%) both opened higher as they took impetus from their US counterparts with gold miners and tech front-running the gains in Australia, although the advances in Tokyo were later wiped out amid the negative BoJ Tankan survey which showed the outlook amongst the large manufacturers was at the weakest level since 2009. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (+1.4%) was positive following reports the PBoC will lower rates for relending and rediscounting programs for small and agriculture-related firms by 25bps from today, and after Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data topped estimates to print a 6-month high which conforms to the strong official PMI figures released yesterday. However, upside was capped given another firm liquidity drain by the PBoC and amid a holiday closure in Hong Kong for the anniversary of the handover to China, while the verbal tit-for-tat between the 2 largest economies in the world continues as China’s Foreign Ministry reiterated they will take retaliatory measures against the US removing preferential treatment for Hong Kong and with President Trump tweeting that he becomes more and more angry at China as the pandemic spreads globally and that tremendous damage has been done to the US. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower after the bear steepening in US and as JGB yields continued to rise which saw the 30yr yield at its highest since March last year, while the BoJ’s presence in the market today and its increased purchases of 3yr-5yr maturities failed to spur prices.

Top Asian News

  • Najib’s 1MDB Trial on Hold to Let Him Join Malaysia Politics
  • Tokyo Offices Seen Facing Record Vacancies on Shift to Telework
  • Hundreds of Protesters Gather Despite Ban: Hong Kong Update
  • Secret Ballot Broke Deadlock in Vote on Samsung Heir’s Fate

A rocky start to the second half of the year with cash bourses opening flat/mixed whilst Eurex and Deutsche Boerse experienced an outage heading into the cash open. The APAC lead was mostly positive but the sentiment failed to sustain into European hours amid further tit-for-tat measures between US and China in which the latter tightened rules on four US media branches in China – a move that reciprocates US’ designation of four Chinese media outlets as foreign missions. Add to that the rising pushback against the Hong Kong National Security law which saw at least 30 people arrested hours after its implication. Furthermore, US House Speaker Pelosi called on US President Trump to sanction China under the Magnitsky act – which provides governmental sanctions against foreign individuals over human rights abuses or corruption, China said it will reciprocate if the US takes measures. Stocks are ultimately choppy in recent trade and have seen more pronounced downside after an earlier pickup, with France’s CAC (-0.9%) the current laggard, weighed on by shares in Renault (-4.3%) after the group stated it sees its French market contracting by some 20% this year, whilst Airbus (-2.3%) shares unwelcome the 15k global job cuts as the group does not expect a recovery to pre-crisis levels until 2023. Meanwhile, DAX Sept futures fell below a support level at 12,220 upon resumption of trade. Sectors are also mixed with no clear risk-tone to be derived; energy outpaces amid gains in the complex. In terms of individual movers, Wirecard (-26%) offices are said to be raided by investigators in relation to the deepening scandal, whilst sources noted that any sale of its subsidiaries needs to happen in weeks, which came after reports that chime with some last week regarding interests over parts of Wirecard. Sainsbury’s (-1.4%) failed to garner much traction despite noting that Q2 will mark the 11th consecutive quarter of strong double-digit online growth. Hammerson (-0.4%) is propped up after it announced steps to increase the covenant headroom and improve liquidity.

Top European News

  • Euro-Area Manufacturing Stems Its Slump With Jobs at Risk
  • Putin Set for Big Win in Vote That May Extend His Rule to 2036
  • Fighting Italy’s Next Crisis Means Enlisting Citizen Help
  • German Watchdog Faces Wirecard Grilling From Lawmakers

In FX, the SEK was not the biggest G10 mover, but in focus at the start of the new month given additional policy stimulus from the Riksbank in the form of an expanded and extended asset purchase remit and lower bank financing rates. However, the Bank left the benchmark repo unchanged as expected and its projected path steady at zero percent right through to Q3 2023 despite reiterating a ‘willingness’ to ease if necessary, although the fact that it opted to implement more QE rather than loosen conventional monetary policy indicates otherwise. Hence, Eur/Sek has remained relatively stable within a circa 10.4450-4870 range.

  • JPY – The major outperformer, or at least extending its recovery from yesterday’s late lows to revisit offers and resistance vs the Dollar around 107.50, irrespective of a disappointing Tankan survey overnight and pretty downbeat comments from the BoJ. The Yen may have regained an element of safe-haven demand due to renewed unrest in Hong Kong just a day after China officially implemented its new National Security legislation.
  • NZD/CAD/AUD – All firmer against their US counterpart as the DXY labours between tight 97.482-220 parameters well below Tuesday’s highs ahead of ADP jobs data, ISM manufacturing, construction spending and FOMC minutes. The Kiwi is pivoting 0.6450 where 1bn option expiries reside, the Loonie is meandering between 1.3586-46 and gleaning underlying support from firm crude prices, while the Aussie is clinging to the 0.6900 handle amidst conflicting drivers via another encouraging Chinese PMI in contrast to concerns over the situation in Melbourne caused by COVID-19.
  • GBP/CHF/EUR – Somewhat contrasting fortunes for the Pound, Franc and Euro, as Sterling straddles 1.2400 following a fleeting venture above the round number as stops were tripped in Cable around 1.2403, but Usd/Chf bouncing ahead of 0.9450 following a deeper sub-50 Swiss manufacturing PMI and Eur/Usd running into supply just shy of 1.1250 even though Eurozone manufacturing surveys were broadly firm, German retail sales smashed consensus and unemployment was not as bad as forecast. Perhaps the single currency is conscious about recent failed approaches towards 1.1300 and decent option expiry interest at 1.1270-75 (1.9 bn), not to mention the fact that it breached technical support at 1.1205 (100 WMA) yesterday on the way down through 1.1200 to 1.1191.
  • FIXED Bonds are extending losses in wake of another weak UK DMO auction that bucks the broad trend seen since funding requirements initially ballooned due to COVID-19 fiscal support. The 10 year UK benchmark has now been down to 136.96 (-68 ticks on the day), but still not as feeble as Bunds and the Eurozone semi-core that have succumbed to even more intense selling pressure since returning from their unscheduled Eurex break. Indeed, the 10-year German future is heading for a full point fall at 175.60 vs its previous 176.52 close, with French OATs not that far behind. Similarly, US Treasuries are feeling the weight of heavier bear-steepening impulses awaiting ADP, manufacturing ISM, construction spending and FOMC minutes.

In commodities, a session of solid gains thus far for the oil complex as WTI and Brent front month futures continue to feed off the substantially deeper-than-expected draw in Private Inventory Data (-8.2mln barrels vs. Exp. -0.7mln barrels), whilst the Iraqi total oil exports average decline markedly MM (2.8mln BPD vs. Prev. 3.44mln BPD); alluding to an improvement in compliance with the OPEC+ pact. WTI had extended on gains towards USD 40.50/bbl (vs. low 39.50/bbl) while its Brent Sep counterpart gains a footing over USD 42.50/bbl (low 41.55/bbl). Looking ahead, participants will be eyeing the weekly DoE’s in the absence of fresh macro news flow and ahead of the FOMC minutes. Elsewhere spot gold have given up recent gains to test 1780/oz to the downside albeit remains close to fresh 8yr highs amid safe-haven demand as COVID-19 cases resurface globally, with technicians eyeing 1789/oz for potential resistance (high 1788/oz). Shanghai copper meanwhile rose to its highest level in over five months amid rate cut hopes by the PBoC and better-than-forecast Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI. Finally, steel futures drifted lower with Shanghai rebar and hot-rolled coils prices declining amid seasonal demand drops.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications -1.8%, prior -8.7%
  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior 577.8%
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 2.9m, prior -2.76m
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 49.6, prior 49.6
  • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, est. 49.7, prior 43.1
  • 10am: Construction Spending MoM, est. 1.0%, prior -2.9%;
  • 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 13m, prior 12.2m

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’ve got my first parents evening of my life today and in keeping with the new world it’s going to be via Zoom. My father used parents evenings to suggest that I should be top of the class in everything and that if I wasn’t it was the teacher’s failings not mine. He meant well and was deadly serious but it was incredibly embarrassing for me, my mum and was sadly and wildly misinformed. I’ve vowed to not follow in his footsteps on this front but who knows whether those competitive juices will flow when I’m told that little Maisie is mid-table at something.

There was nothing mid-table about Q2 performance in markets. This morning we start the second half of the year and over the next hour we’ll publish our June, H1 and Q2 performance review. Q2 was the best quarter for many assets for a few decades. So watch out for the note from Henry. H2 starts with PMIs this morning so watch out for these.

We’ve also published our H2 outlook for credit this morning (link here) where we see a bright Q3 but potential for the gains to be given up in Q4. There has been more two-way price action in credit over the last month with the recent rise in covid-19 cases in several US states impacting confidence. It’s too early to make firm conclusions but there is some evidence to suggest that they aren’t picking up anywhere near as high as they did across the globe in March and April. So while the rising case numbers will stall US re-openings and impact short-term economic activity and market sentiment, it could at least give us some confidence that we are treating the virus better and that the demographics of who is getting infected are changing for the better. As such there could be a medium-term silver lining to these worrying new case developments. A spike in fatalities soon will be a big negative though as the US will be back closer to square one in terms of the public health element of this crisis. For now this is not our base case scenario but this will unfold relatively quickly.

The view is that there’s enough pent-up economic demand to keep Q3 a positive one for economies and risk assets. We think credit is following equities again since the Fed became the buyer of last resort and positioning is light in equities which helps the technicals of all risk assets. So we expect tighter spreads in Q3.

However by Q4 economies will hit a limit well below pre-covid levels as social distancing prevents normality. At the same time a northern hemisphere winter will likely lead to a more indoor life, more caution, and fears over a resurgence of the virus. So at this stage we think you’ll see a reversal of Q3’s gains. In the note we highlight our short-term recommendations.

As a turbulent first half of the year came to a close, negative newsflow on the coronavirus continued but risk assets fought through the gloom and ended the day on a strong footing with the S&P 500 +1.54% and ending the quarter up +18.70% on a total return basis – the best since Q4 1998. This comes after Q1 was the worst since Q4 2008. More on markets later but in terms of the latest virus developments, the US continued to be the main source of bad news, with Texas announcing a further expansion of its ban on elective surgery to save capacity, while New York added 8 new states to its list from which arrivals would need to quarantine for 2 weeks. Meanwhile in Florida, cases rose by a further 4.2% (versus 3.7% the day before), with Dr Fauci saying that he was “quite concerned” about the rising caseload in a number of states. Arizona saw cases rise 6.3% over a two-day period (they had data issues yesterday on lab results) but with the average of those two days below the 5.0% average seen in the week prior. Notably, the Arizona Governor has closed bars, gyms, movie theaters, and water parks for the next month, citing the need to “relieve stress on our health care system and give time for new transmissions to slow.” Also yesterday, the United Auto Workers union in Texas asked GM to temporarily close its large-SUV plant in the Arlington after the daily average of new cases recently passed 5000 per day, further highlighting how the uncontained spread is having economic effects.

In a sign that this concern about the US is gaining traction internationally, the EU extended its travel ban for US residents. Puerto Rico, a U.S. commonwealth and heavily reliant on tourism, is also now requiring travellers to show evidence of a negative Covid-19 test or submit to a two-week quarantine.

We would again stress that there is still no sign of fatalities gathering much momentum in these troubled US states though. Arizona is the worst on this measure but still well behind the trends seen elsewhere in the first wave. A crucial few days awaits though but one that could start to change the way we collectively think about the virus.

Back to markets and tech stocks led the advance in equities yesterday, with the NASDAQ up +1.87% (+12.67% YTD and +30.95% in Q2 alone). Energy stocks were the best performing S&P sector on the day as Saudi crude exports for June fell to 5.7mln barrels a day, the lowest since Bloomberg began tracking the data at the start of 2017. Even still, oil prices moved marginally lower on the day, with WTI down -1.08% and Brent down -1.34%. As with US equities it was a particularly strong quarter for crude prices, with Brent rallying +80.96%, the most since Q3 1990.

Over in Europe, indices closed lower for the most part missing the late US rally, with the FTSE 100 (-0.90%) and the CAC (-0.19%) both losing ground. However a strong performance from German stocks, where the DAX rose +0.64%, helped the Stoxx 600 to eke out a +0.13% gain. In particular it was technology stocks outperforming in both the Stoxx 600 (+1.24%) and DAX (+1.79) that caused the indices to remain above water.

In response to the US rally, Treasury yields climbed +3.3bps to 0.656. In Europe there was a divergent performance between core and periphery, with 10yr bund yields +1.6bps, whereas peripheral yields including those on Italian (-4.0bps) and Greek (-4.9bps) debt fell. Finally in commodity markets gold set new records as it closed up +0.46% at a fresh 7-year high, and copper similarly continued to climb, rising +1.27% to a fresh 5-month high. As you’ll see in our performance review Gold is the leading asset class YTD and is up around 17.38%.

The majority of Asian markets have started Q3 on the front foot with the Shanghai Comp (+0.91%), Kospi (+0.88%) and ASX (+0.59%) all up. The exception is the Nikkei (-0.20%) while Hong Kong is closed for a holiday. In FX, the Japanese yen is up +0.27%. Meanwhile, yields on 10y USTs are up +2.4bps and futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.19% as we type. In commodities, oil prices are up c.1% and spot gold prices are up +0.19%.

Overnight, China’s Caixin June manufacturing PMI showed steady improvement, printing at 51.2 (vs. 50.5 expected and 50.7 last month). Japan’s final manufacturing PMI reading also got revised up to 40.1 from 37.8 in the flash. Other manufacturing PMI readings in the region also improved with Australia printing at 51.2 (vs. 49.8 in flash), Vietnam at 51.1 (vs. 42.7 last month), Taiwan at 46.2 (vs. 41.9 last month) and South Korea at 43.4 (vs. 41.3 last month). It’s worth noting however that while the trend is positive, the majority of PMIs are still below their pre-Covid levels.

In other news, Hong Kong’s new security law came has come into force and City’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam reiterated that the law wouldn’t impact Hong Kong’s high degree of autonomy or judicial independence. Yesterday UK PM Johnson said that he was “deeply concerned” about the law, and Australia said it was “troubled”, while the Trump administration has vowed “strong actions”.

In other news, Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin appeared before the House Financial Services Committee yesterday. Chair Powell stressed the need to keep the virus at bay for the US recovery to take hold, while also noting that the bounce back in economic activity is “sooner than expected.” The Fed chair indicated that, a “full recovery is unlikely until people are confident that it is safe to re-engage in a broad range of activities.” The question remains if that is before a vaccine is delivered. Secretary Mnuchin said that it was the administration’s goal to get another round of fiscal stimulus done by the end of July, while not indicating if it would be based off the $3.5trn bill that was passed by the House in May. Senate Majority Leader McConnell called that bill a non-starter and that his caucus would draft a bill, with Bloomberg reporting that Republicans want to keep the overall cost under one trillion.

Here in the UK, Prime Minister Johnson confirmed yesterday that there would be no return to the type of austerity we saw in 2010 as the UK seeks to recover from the economic effects of the pandemic. Nevertheless, our UK economist Sanjay Raja writes (link here) that while austerity in its previous form is not an option, there won’t be any blank cheques either, with Chancellor Sunak already having noted that the bar for state bailouts is “very high”. Finally on the UK, it’s worth noting some comments from the BoE’s chief economist Haldane (who was the only one of the MPC not to vote for further QE at the last meeting), who said that since the May meeting, “positive news on demand has, in my opinion, more than counterbalanced the rise in downside risks to employment.”

Looking at yesterday’s data, the main highlight was the flash estimate of Euro Area CPI, which rose to +0.3% in June (vs. +0.2% expected). Core CPI fell by a tenth to 0.8% however, it’s lowest in over a year. With the higher-than-expected inflation, market expectations also rose, with five-year forward five-year inflation swaps for the Euro Area at 1.12%, their highest level since early March.

In terms of other data, the contraction in the UK’s Q1 GDP was revised to show a larger -2.2% fall (vs. 2.0% previously). Meanwhile French inflation in June fell to a 4-year low of +0.1% (vs. +0.5% expected), while the Italian reading sunk into deflationary territory with a -0.4% reading that also marked a 4-year low. On the other side of the Atlantic, Canadian GDP fell by -11.6% month-on-month in April. And in the US, we got the MNI Chicago PMI for June, which rose by less than expected to 36.6. However the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator from the US rose to a stronger-than-expected 98.1 (vs. 91.5 expected), and the expectations reading was also up to a 4-month high of 106.0.

To the day ahead now, and the highlight will likely be the manufacturing PMIs for June, along with the ISM manufacturing index from the US. Otherwise, from Germany there’ll be May’s retail sales as well as the unemployment report for June, while in the US there’ll also be June’s ADP employment report and May’s construction spending. From central banks, we’ll get the FOMC minutes from their June meeting, along with remarks from the Fed’s Evans, the ECB’s Panetta and the BoE’s Haskel. Finally, Germany will today take over the rotating presidency of the EU, while the USMCA trade agreement will come into effect.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 41.31 POINTS OR 1.38%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 125.91 POINTS OR 0.52%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 166.41 POINTS OR 0.45%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .66%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0671 /Oil UP TO 39.96 dollars per barrel for WTI and 41.84 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0671 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0691 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED /CORONAVIRUS /PANDEMIC : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/HONG KONG
New HK law  (which includes penalties of life in prison and closed trials to protect state secrets) is passed.

New HK Law Includes Penalties Of Life In Prison & ‘Closed’ Trials To Protect “State Secrets”

Despite Beijing officials’ denials, it’s been fiercely debated in the past days and weeks to what degree the now officially passed new controversial law for Hong Kong that would allow authorities to crack down on pro-democracy protesters and “foreign forces” who attempt to destabilize the semi-autonomous region can be applied retroactively.

Hours ago the law was finally published, though an official English translation has been slow to emerge:

Expected to take effect immediately, starting Wednesday, some crimes could be published with a maximum lifetime jail sentence.

And there’s no independent review, instead an incredibly opaque process where “closed” trials can take place on the basis of “national security”. Axios points out in its initial review of the text:

It includes sweeping definitions of crimes and penalties that gives the government broad power to limit people’s political freedom, while explicitly denying any kind of independent oversight of the law or how it is carried out.

Currently the US, Britain, and European countries are pouring through it, readying a reaction. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said Tuesday that the law’s contents will determine Britain’s next step.

“Despite the urging of the international community, Beijing has chosen not to step back from imposing this legislation,” Raab said in a statement. “China has ignored its international obligations regarding Hong Kong. This is a grave step, which is deeply troubling. We urgently need to see the full legislation, and will use that to determine whether there has been a breach of the Joint Declaration and what further action the UK will take.”

 

Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam, via Reuters.

As expected, the sweeping legislation is ambiguous enough on the ‘foreign interference’ angle that it leaves Beijing as the ultimate interpreter in terms of the law’s application.

It’s further still ambiguous on the question of its having a retroactive effect.

* * *

Here are some of the brief early highlights as translated and paraphrased by Hong Kong politics specialist Kris Cheng:

  • max life imprisonment
  • anyone convicted cannot run for public office (or be disqualified) without mentioning for how long
  • cases involving national secrets will not have open trials
  • uncertain if have retroacting effect – no bail for suspects
  • suspects may hire lawyers, but it may be possible after first interrogation
  • chief executive selects judges, judges can be disqualified if they made remarks endangering national security
  • cases can be heard behind closed doors to protect national secrets
  • Beijing has jurisdiction for cases when foreign forces were interfering, when Hong Kong gov cannot effectively implement the law, when China faces substantial national security threats
  • The law applies to foreigners committing the said crimes outside Hong Kong

East Asia analyst Tom Fowdy also noted the law is designed to have a chilling effect on the kind of mass protests and unrest seen over much of the past year:

  • Leading a terrorist organization carries a minimum sentence of 10 years and a maximum of life in prison, but it’s unclear what sorts of organizations that designation will apply to.
  • There is concern in Hong Kong that the prohibition of “terrorist activity” will be applied broadly and arbitrarily. The law does get specific in some instances, with “destroying a vehicle” cited as possible terrorist activity.
  • The law requires Hong Kong to carry out “national security education” — a particularly controversial element given local resistance to propaganda in schools.
  • The law also requires Hong Kong’s police to establish a national security division, and states that it may hire “specialists and technicians from outside the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region” — meaning mainland China.

Ultimately, it’s clearly a huge blow to Hong Kong independence activists

END
First arrests made under the new Hong Kong “National Security” law.  Thousands flood the streets in protest.. Britain will allow a plan to allow Hong Kongers the right to relocate to the UK and become British citizens.  This will annoy China.

(zerohedge)

First Arrests Made Under New Hong Kong “National Security” Law As Thousands Flood The Streets In Protest

Update (0700ET): SCMP reports that British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab has just finished outlining a plan to allow Hong Kongers to relocate to the UK and become British citizens.

We imagine Beijing won’t be thrilled about this, either.

* * *

At least two people were arrested Wednesday as Hong Kong protesters, undaunted by the new penalties they might face, clashed with police, with some proudly carrying the flag of Hong Kong independence despite the tremendous personal risks: Under the new security law, brandishing pro-independence material could lead to arrest and prosecution with stiff prison sentences.

One day after President Xi signed the new National Security law, officially overriding part of the Hong Kong Basic Law via a loophole in the quasi-constitution left behind by the British, Hong Kongers are on the edge of open revolt, as the drop in COVID-19 cases has emboldened more to return to the streets, despite the legal risks.

Police used intense crowd-control methods like water cannons, cordons and pepper spray to keep marchers off the main local road between the shopping district of Causeway Bay and central Hong Kong. Instead, tens of thousands of marchers took to secondary streets. Unlike past protests, few carried signs or banners or coordinated their outfits in black. Though at least one of those arrested was booked for carrying the flag, a serious offense as we mentioned above.

Chanting was mostly limited, although the forbidden call of “Revolution of our times” echoed from the open plaza crossing under the Times Square shopping mall as more young people poured out from a subway exit to join the protest, according to a report from Nikkei Asian Review.

Hong Kong police, who have been more than willing to kowtow to Beijing’s every demand tied to the law, have already formed a special unit to enforce “national security” offenses, according to a statement from the police chief. That’s bad news for the two people arrested during the march, one of whom was touting the independence flag, as we noted above (according to Nikkei).

One of the more terrifying features of the new law is the possibility that ‘national security’ offenders might be prosecuted by mainland courts, where any semblance of the civil liberties enjoyed in Hong Kong would vanish. Chinese leaders have insisted that these types of cases would be extremely rare.

Despite the government of HK citing the pandemic as an excuse to ban the protest, pro-democracy lawmakers urged people to take to the streets in protest despite the police interference.

Citing coronavirus restrictions, city authorities prohibited the annual protest that was arranged by the Civil Human Rights Front, the organizer of last year’s massive rallies. But pro-democracy lawmakers and activists have urged people to defy the ban and take to the streets.

During the protest, journalists were attacked by police in the chaos.

HK Chief Executive Carrie Lam, who was installed by Beijing, spoke at a flag-raising ceremony on Wednesday morning where she proclaimed that the new law is “the most important milestone to strengthen the ‘one country, two systems’ framework.”

“The legislation will protect the majority of people who abide by the laws,” Lam said. “It’s a turning point for Hong Kong to restore stability.”

Pro-democracy lawmakers, along with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, have slammed the law as bringing about the death of “one country, two systems”. Raab vowed to take action to protect the people of Hong Kong, to whom Britain made a commitment to protect when it agreed to return the territory to Chinese control.

Even the leaders of the pro-democracy opposition in Hong Kong say they weren’t allowed to see the text of the law until after it had been enacted. Many in Hong Kong still aren’t 100% aware of the laws exact strictures, which is the very definition of China’s system of “rule by law” instead of “rule of law”.

Say what you want about Hong Kong, for decades, it has been one of the few reliable jurisdictions in Asia where individuals could sue the government and stand a chance of winning. That westernized commitment to fairness (which, as we’ve learned via the trails and travails of Carlos Ghosn, doesn’t exist even in Japan) was what helped transform HK into China’s “gateway” to the west.

But now, Beijing clearly sees Hong Kong’s restiveness as too big of a risk; and so the former golden goose is being slaughtered.

And while the protests rage, ordinary Hong Kongers are scrambling to remove protest signs from businesses and scrub social media profiles, and even text messages.

That fear, a sense of foreboding that even innocent actions might elicit disastrous consequences, has become an unsettling new feature of life in Hong Kong.

end

Michael Every…

The Sword Of Damocles

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

The Sword of Damocles

“It’s not the substantive crimes and their definitions that count; it’s the institutions that will investigate, prosecute, and judge them that count. Language matters only if there are institutions that will make it matter. This whole law is about avoiding the involvement of such institutions.”

This is the summary of an analysis of Hong Kong’s new national security law by professor of Chinese law Donald Clarke. China openly states the new legislation is “a Sword of Damocles” hanging over the head of its critics. The law allows life in prison for the crimes of: “terrorism” – including “serious disruption” of transport networks; “collusion” with foreigners – including advocating for action by foreign governments; “secession” – including waving pro-independence flags or banners and or shouting or singing such songs or phrases; and “subversion” – including attacks on state offices and “creating hatred” of the government among the people. It allows Beijing to prosecute complex cases directly – which was what the proposed extradition treaty which sparked Hong Kong’s recent unrest was opposed to; closed trials; trials without jury; the operation of Chinese security agents in Hong Kong – who are immune to the law in the operation of their duties; and “stronger management” of media and foreign NGOs.

The law also applies to everyone everywhere in the world. This means if one were to be seen by Beijing as breaking this new legislation in another country and then enter Hong Kong, or transit through it, or even fly in a vehicle registered in Hong Kong, then one would be at risk. Possibly this could even apply to residing in a country with an extradition treaty with Hong Kong (or one day China?). In short, it is a very large, sharp Sword of Damocles.

As such, the same Sword now hangs over markets too. What will the global response be? There has been condemnation from Western governments and steps to allow the emigration of Hong Kongers to the US (where they will be given priority as refugees) and to the UK (where the government appears serious about its pledge to allow in up to 2.9 million people). Even Japan’s newspapers are leading with suggestions that Hong Kongers should be welcomed.

President Trump has tweeted: “As I watch the Pandemic spread its ugly face all across the world, including the tremendous damage it has done to the USA, I become more and more angry at China. People can see it, and I can feel it.” Secretary of State Pompeo that: “The CCP’s draconian national security law ends free Hong Kong and exposes the Party’s greatest fear: the free will and free thinking of its own people.

The issue is if righteous (or unrighteous) rhetoric is matched with biting US sanctions.

Yet the view among the establishment in Hong Kong, and in markets, is that the US is a paper tiger and there won’t be any. Indeed, AFP journalist Xinqi Su tweeted that the de facto deputy Chinese ambassador to Hong Kong “Zhang Xiaoming dared US to “give it a try” on sanctioning China: “It’s nothing but a chance for us to show our capability to defend ourselves and hit back.”

If China and markets are right and the US does not have the stomach for real action on Hong Kong, risk remains ’on’. As with Brexit, actions we were repeatedly told could never, would never happen are absolutely fine and life just carries on (i.e., stocks go up.) Yet as geostrategists point out, so does the real-world risk that the next US-China clash will be over Taiwan. Meanwhile at the India-China border both sides are still building up their forces, with tanks now arriving. Also note Australia has not-at-all-coincidentally just announced a huge increase in its defence budget to AUD270bn over the next decade (which if funded at the short end of the curve means the RBA is ensuring remains affordable.) Indeed, PM Morrison stated today that the “largely benign security environment” seen since the fall of the Berlin Wall “is gone”. Let’s also consider the looming need for an extension of the UN Iranian arms embargo (which Russia and China oppose): imagine if it lapses and weapons start flowing to Tehran.

If China and markets are wrong and the US does have the stomach for real action on Hong Kong, risk will be ‘off’: and all the central bank action in the world is not going to suppress that particular bout of volatility. In short, risks remain either way – but with different time horizons.

Naturally, there are still many for whom all this represents events in a far-away country of which they know nothing. They can focus on what emerged from yesterday’s Mnuchin-Powell testimony in Congress instead – which was not a lot. There were no concrete details of what kind of Fed-supported fiscal stimulus might be coming next despite there being just a few weeks until some schemes run out.

Underlining that fact, today’s Japanese Tankan survey was worse than expected at -34 for large manufacturers, down from -8, and better than expected for large services firms yet still -17, down from 8. Small firms fared worse, of course, with manufacturing down from -15 to -45 and services from -1 to -26. The Japanese manufacturing PMI was 40.1, up only slightly from 37.8 last month.

Even more shocking, Aussie Corelogic house prices were -0.8% m/m. That will be the front page today, not Hong Kong or the defence budget. Building approvals were also -16.4% m/m vs. -7.8% expected. Time to build tanks indeed.

China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI was up from 50.7 to 51.2, better than the expected dip to 50.5. It’s not clear where the real momentum is coming from, but presumably the state sector is helping a lot in the background….which means more debt and/or more excess Chinese supply, and so more global tensions ahead too.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY

Munich prosecutors raid Wirecard offices

(zerohedge)

Munich Prosecutors Raid Wirecard Offices As Probe Into $2BN Accounting Fraud Heats Up

The German leadership has already scapegoated an industry group, the Financial Reporting Enforcement Panel, over the Wirecard disaster in the hope that the appearance of reform might be enough to placate Brussels and ESMA after Germany’s most powerful financial regulator, BaFin, was exposed as virtually complicit in the biggest corporate accounting fraud in the country’s post-war history.

But as prosecutors continue to build their case and demonstrate to the German public (and the world, and most importantly Brussels) that they’re taking the Wirecard investigation extremely seriously, officers stormed several offices belonging to Wirecard, including the company’s headquarters.

Here’s more on that from Reuters:

Twelve prosecutors and 33 police officers were involved in the raids to investigate suspected fraud, including market manipulation, prosecutors said.

A spokeswoman told Reuters that prosecutors were investigating board members Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl, as well as Braun and former director Jan Marsalek. Those people could not be immediately reached for comment.

 

Wirecard CEO/mastermind Markus Braun, meanwhile, remains out on bail.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/GLOBE

Australia Places 300k Under Lockdown As Global Cases Near 10.5 Million: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Pfizer vaccine headline sends futures higher
  • US reported 48k+ new cases yesterday
  • Australia locks down 300k in Victoria
  • Brazil imposes travel ban as deaths near 60k
  • Tokyo reports most cases since state of emergency lifted
  • German infection rate below R for 7th day

* * *

Update (0900ET): Despite claiming it would wait to publish study results in a journal, the latest results from one of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine trials been released, and stocks predictably spiked higher, following a report from Stat News, that bastion of ever-reliable trial updates.

Futures are surging…

Like prior vaccine news-inspired leaks, we wouldn’t be surprised to see this rally fade as traders peruse the Stat News report, which was based on a non-peer-reviewed paper published to the website Medrx.

An experimental Covid-19 vaccine being developed by the drug giant Pfizer and the biotech firm BioNTech spurred immune responses in healthy patients, but also caused fever and other side effects, especially at higher doses.

The first clinical data on the vaccine were disclosed Wednesday in a paper released on MedRXiv, a preprint server, meaning it has not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a journal.

The Pfizer study randomly assigned 45 patients to get one of three doses of the vaccine or placebo. Twelve receive a 10 microgram dose, 12 a 30 μg dose, 12 a 100 μg dose, and nine a placebo. The 100 μg dose caused fevers in half of patients; a second dose was not given at that level.

Following a second injection three weeks later of the other doses, 8.3% of the participants in the 10 μg group and 75% of those in the 30 μg group developed fevers. More than 50% of the patients who received one of those doses reported some kind of adverse event, including fever and sleep disturbances. None of these side effects was deemed serious, meaning they did not result in hospitalization or disability and were not life-threatening.

The company is hoping to get permission to start a larger phase 3 trial as early as August. Pfizer’s CEO told CNBC’s Meg Tirrell last week that he had the first batch of trial results in-hand.

* * *

Arizona became one of the first states to lift coronavirus-related restrictions back in May as the number of daily cases were just passing their peaks in the northeast and the other hard-hit states. But its decision earlier this week to reverse course and close bars, gyms etc. seemed to mark a turning point for the battleground state. Dr. Fauci’s warnings about 100k+ new cases per day has clearly rattled the GOP, leading to VP Mike Pence urging all Americans to wear masks while in public (if local regulations asked them to do so).

The US reported more than 40k new cases yesterday (remember, cases are reported with a 24 hour delay) for the fifth day out of six, as we noted last night.

Confirmed coronavirus infections in the US increased by 48,096 to 2.61 million on Tuesday, a rise of 1.9%, more than the 7-day daily average, per BBG.

According to the latest update from Kevin Systrom’s COVID-19 tracker, the state with the highest “R” rate (a measure of the rapidity of the virus’s spread) is Nevada, with Florida and Texas not far behind.

According to the Washington Post, the states with the worst outbreaks per capita roughly corresponded with “R Live”s calculations.

Source: WaPo

A map of infections and outbreaks shows how badly the southern US has been hit.

Perhaps the biggest news on Wednesday morning is that the total number of COVID-19 cases globally has hit 10,498,090 while deaths have reached 511,686 deaths and more than 5.3 million have recovered.

Though it appears the virus is growing less lethal as infections tilt toward young people.

Perhaps the biggest news overnight is a report that Australia’s Victoria State will lock down 300,000 people in the suburbs of Melbourne in the 1-month lockdown that was reported earlier this week.

In Japan, Tokyo confirmed 67 new cases on Wednesday, a new high since the emergency order in the prefecture was lifted. In Europe, Spain reopened its border with Portugal (and vice versa) and Greece has reopened its borders to some foreign travelers (while the EU’s list of travel guidelines stakes effect, which calls for member states to bar travelers from the US, but allow travelers from China). Germany’s coronavirus infection rate remained below the critical “1” threshold for the 7th straight day on Wednesday following a concerning spike last week that saw a cluster of new cases at a meat processing plant in the country’s most populous state drive that “R” rate to just shy of 3.

The US, meanwhile, has reportedly bought up virtually all the stocks for the next three months of remdesivir, one of the two drugs that have shown some efficacy at treating the virus (though a much cheaper and more widely available steroid has proven effective at lowering mortality in very sick patients), the Guardian reports. The decision leaves none for the UK, Europe or most of the rest of the world.

In Brazil, President Bolsonaro has imposed a travel ban on foreigners entering the country as the country’s death toll, the second-worst in the world after the US, is nearing 60,000. Brazil suffered 1,280 more deaths it reported yesterday, bringing the country’s confirmed death toll to 59,594, according to health ministry data.The total number of confirmed cases rose by 33,846 to reach 1,402,041, the worst outbreak in the world outside the US, though the US has once again started to expand the gap.

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1206 DOWN .0028 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.46 DOWN 0.536 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2394   UP   0.0006  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3583 UP .0008 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 28 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1206 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 41.31 POINTS OR 1.30% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 125.91 POINTS OR 0.52%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,66%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 166.41 POINTS OR 0.75%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 41.31 POINTS OR 1.38%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 66% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 166.41  POINTS OR 0.75%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1781.50

silver:$18.21-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.68% !!! UP 3 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.45 UP 4  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 97.55 UP 15 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.47% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +05%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.51%//UP 4 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,27 UP 1 point in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 76 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.39% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.66% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1253  UP     .0019 or 19 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.53 DOWN .455 OR YEN UP 46  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2471 UP .0083 POUND UP 83  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 10 basis points to 1.3584

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 67.0712    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0664  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.8471 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at =.05%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 0.67 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.42 UP 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.10 down 29  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 11.78  0.19%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 50.36 POINTS OR .41%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 9.05 POINTS 0.18%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 4.00 POINTS or 0.06%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 44.64 POINTS OR 0.23%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 39.85 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 41.91 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    70.79  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.41 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 41 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.39 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  39.81//

 

 

BRENT :  41.92

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.68.up 2 basis points..

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.43..up 2 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1252 ( UP 17   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.49 DOWN .505 (YEN UP 51 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.11 DOWN 28 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2475 UP 88  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.8468

 

 

the Russian rouble 70.79   UP 0.40 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 40 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3589 down 15 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.39%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 77.84 POINTS OR 0.30%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 95.86 POINTS OR 0.95%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  28.36 CLOSED DOWN 2.07

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.302%//libor dropping like a stone

LIBOR OIS// 0.222%

TED SPREAD  (3 MONTH TREASURY VS LIBOR) = .147%

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Vaccine Hype Redux Sparks Another Big-Tech Buying-Panic, Gold Dumped

Ok, so this is what happened today…

  • 0742ET PFIZER CSO SAYS COVID VACCINE IS `VERY PROMISING’
  • 0815ET ADP Job growth slows (massive revisions)
  • 1000ET ISM jumps into expansion (biggest jump ever)
  • 1110ET ARIZONA REPORTS RECORD ONE-DAY INCREASE IN VIRUS CASES
  • 1240ET U.S. READIES GLOBAL SANCTIONS ON CHINA OVER XINJIANG ABUSES
  • 1310ET HOUSTON-AREA ICUS REACH 102% OF CAPACITY: TEXAS MEDICAL CENTER
  • 1400ET FOMC MINUTES – No YCC, More QE (But it may not work), Stocks only up on hope
  • 1420ET GOV NEWSOM ORDERS LA COUNTY RESTAURANTS CLOSED FOR 3 WKS: EATER
  • 1425ET APPLE RE-CLOSING 30 MORE STORES THURSDAY: CNBC
  • 1510ET CALIFORNIA CLOSES INDOOR DINING IN 19 COUNTIES, INCLUDING L.A.

And the result of all that… Nasdaq soared to new record highs, Small Caps were dumped and the Dow unch…until the last 10 minutes…

As every RH’er desperately searches for the next dip to buy…

FANG stocks soared on this first day of Q3…

Source: Bloomberg

TSLA topped $200bn and became the world’s largest carmaker by market cap…

Source: Bloomberg

Bank stocks underperformed despite a modest steepening of the yield curve…

Source: Bloomberg

Notable reversal in value/momentum today…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite stocks gains, credit ain’t buying it…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were marginally higher on the day (up around 2bps across the curve) but on the week 2Y remins flat while the long-end is up 6bps…

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y topped 70bps briefly but did not hold it…

Source: Bloomberg

The USDollar was lower today, extending yesterday’s losses…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin and Ethereum pushed higher on the day, back in the green on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was slammed lower on the vaccine news, running stops back below $1800…

WTI ended higher on the day, after last night’s API inventory draw but chopped around after the DOE inventory data (but ended back below $40)…

 

Finally, as we start H2 of 2020, the question is – will this divergence recouple? And if so, will it be stocks or bonds that are sold?

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

Stocks Soar Back Into Green On Yet Another Vaccine Headline

Another day, another “positive” vaccine headline (this time from Pfizer) and the algos can’t buy stocks fast enough.

Statnews (yes, them again) report that:

“An experimental Covid-19 vaccine being developed by the drug giant Pfizer and the biotech firm BioNTech spurred immune responses in healthy patients, but also caused fever and other side effects, especially at higher doses”

“The first clinical data on the vaccine were disclosed Wednesday in a paper released on MedRXiv, a preprint server, meaning it has not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a journal. “

In the press release Pfizer said

In all 24 subjects who received 2 vaccinations at 10 µg and 30 µg dose levels of BNT162b1, elevation of RBD-binding IgG concentrations was observed after the second injection with respective GMCs of 4,813 and 27,872 units/ml at day 28, seven days after immunization. These concentrations are 8- and 46.3-times the GMC of 602 units/ml in a panel of 38 sera from subjects who had contracted SARS-CoV-2.

So no peer-review? 24 of 24? Antibodies measurable after 28 days? Sounds very “remdesivir”…

This headline sent all US equity market soaring… “virus solved”?

Pfizer is up 7%…

How long before the “medical results via press release” details are actually read by a human and considered rationally?

Do you want to be Number 25 to take this “vaccine”?

END

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

FOMC Minutes Suggest Fed Will Keep Buying Bonds “For Many Years”, Shuns Yield Curve Control

Fed Minutes TL;DRthings can get better, or worse. We have no idea what happens next but everyone agreed we should sound confident and give “forward guidance” as if we know what is coming. Also, we will buy stocks and equity ETFs after the next 20% drop.

Since The Fed statement on June 10th, gold has outperformed (even beating Nasdaq) as the “lower for… ever” mantra is reinforced…

After moving hawkishly higher after the FOMC meeting, the market has drifted notably dovishly in the last two weeks

As a reminder, the FOMC kept rates unchanged at 0-0.25%, at the June 9-10 meeting, as was expected; it did not announce any enhanced forward guidance, nor did it announce any yield curve control policy but did formalize its QE program. Perhaps most notably, Powell adopted a cautious tone during the press conference and has maintained that stance, until yesterday’s congressional testimony where he suggested that the economy had “entered an important new phase and has done so sooner than expected”, signaling more optimism.

Today’s Minutes are not expected to produce any market-moving comments but Fed-watchers will be listening for discussions of negative rates and yield curve control, and any fears of excess valuations (as noted in The Fed’s semi-annual outlook).

*  *  *

As expected The Fed’s Minutes show that officials reviewed other options to provide more support for the economy but Fed officials did agree there was no more need to analyze yield curve control (mentioned 15 times in the minutes).

A number of participants commented on additional challenges associated with YCT policies focused on the longer portion of the yield curve, including how these policies might interact with large-scale asset purchase programs and the extent of additional accommodation they would provide in the current environment of very low interest rates.

In their discussion of the foreign and historical  experience with YCT policies and the potential role for such policies in the United States, nearly all participants indicated that they had many questions regarding the costs and benefits of such an approach.

“some participants said [YCT could result] in the central bank inadvertently setting yield caps or targets at inappropriate levels. “

This is important as consensus expected some form of YCT policy adjustment in September.

Instead, Fed officials preferred to focus on inflation-based forward guidance:

“That could possibly entail a modest temporary overshooting of the Committee’s longer-run inflation goal but where inflation fluctuations would be centered on 2 percent over time.

“They saw this form of forward guidance as helping reinforce the credibility of the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent inflation objective and potentially preventing a premature withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation.”

On how long they will remain easy…

“The staff presented results from model simulations that suggested that forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases can help support the labor market recovery and the return of inflation to the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent inflation goal.

The simulations suggested that the Committee would have to maintain highly accommodative financial conditions for many years to quicken meaningfully the recovery from the current severe downturn.”

Did The Fed just realize it is obsolete:

“businesses and households might not be as forward looking as assumed in the model simulations, which could reduce the effectiveness of policies that are predicated on influencing expectations about policy several years into the future”

Did The Fed admit QE is no longer working?

“Several participants remarked that declines in the neutral rate of interest and in term premiums over the past decade and prevailing low levels of longer-term yields would likely act as constraints on the effectiveness of asset purchases in the current environment and noted that these constraints were not as acute when the Committee implemented such programs in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis.”

Finally, in the “Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations” section, The Fed admits the market is only higher on optimism and multiple expansion:

Risk asset prices were buoyed by optimism about the potential for increased economic activity associated with reopenings as parts of the United States and other countries relaxed lockdown restrictions. That optimism was reinforced by high-frequency data suggesting a pickup in economic activity. Market participants also pointed to the suite of U.S. and global policy measures taken since mid-March as laying a foundation for the improvement in risk sentiment. Against this backdrop, staff analysis suggested that equity prices had been supported by expectations for a strong rebound in earnings next year, low risk-free rates and positive risk sentiment. Despite this improvement in risk sentiment, market participants expected weak overall growth in 2020, and elevated uncertainties in the outlook remained.”

Perhaps Powell should check this chart out before the next FOMC meeting?

END

Nasdaq Extends Gains As AAPL Shutters More Stores, CA Closes Restaurants

Update (1440ET): Did the adults just come back into the room?

*  *  *

Nothing says buy big-tech stocks like 33 more Apple store closures and CA Governor Gavin Newsom shutting down LA Country restaurants for three weeks

But hey that’s the “market” we live in.

 

ii)Market data/USA

slight rebound as most came back to work;

(ADP)

After Massive Upward Revision, ADP Employment Data Shows Job Rebound Slowing In June

After the last two month’s big drop in ADP employment (which was still dramatically different from BLS data), analysts expected a rebound surge in employment in June.

ADP saw 19.5mm people lose their jobs in April, another 2.8 million lost jobs in May (which has now been revised to +3.065mm!), and now sees the US economy adding 2.369 million in June (disappointing expectations of a 2.9 million gain)…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Both Goods and Services jobs rebounded but the pace of rebound slowed…

 

Source: Bloomberg

So, based on the revisions, job additions are slowing!

“Small business hiring picked up in the month of June,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

“As the economy slowly continues to recover,we are seeing a significant rebound in industries that once experienced the greatest joblosses.  In fact, 70 percent of the jobs added this month were in the leisure and hospitality, trade and construction industries.”

*  *  *

So… if you put any credence in today’s data, just remember last month’s data was revised from a 2.76 million job loss to a 3.065 million job gain! Zandi?

END

A JOKE!!

As always a huge discrepancy between the iSM  (perennially bullish) and the proper PMI (generally accurate)

(zerohedge)

US Manufacturing Survey Jumps By Record In June (In Contraction & Expansion)

Despite the record surge in the US Macro Surprise Index, May’s rebound in ‘soft’ survey data was much more mixed than many prefer to cherry-pick (PMI rebound much more dramatic than ISM), but flash PMIs suggest June saw the re-opening euphoria is set to accelerate…

  • ISM Manufacturing in Expansion – 52.6 vs 49.8 expectations and 43.1 prior – best since April 2019
  • PMI Manufacturing in Contraction – 49.8 vs 49.6 expectations and 39.8 prior – a record 10 point jump

Source: Bloomberg

Markit’s PMI noted that employment across the manufacturing sector declined for the fourth month running in June, as firms shed workers at a moderate pace following subdued demand. Signs of excess capacity remained evident as manufacturers registered a sharp reduction in backlogs of work. However, the overall loss of jobs was considerably weaker than those seen in the prior two months.

The PMI recorded its largest increase since August 1980, when it increased 10.5 percentage points. Among the big six industries, three of the industry sectors expanded. New Orders and Production returned to expansion, and at respectable levels. Supplier Deliveries reached a normal level of tension between supply and demand. Five of the 10 subindexes registered expansion, a marked improvement from previous periods.

ISM’s data showed a surge in new orders but far less of a jump in employment…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the biggest increase in new orders ever…

Source: Bloomberg

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

US manufacturers have reported a marked turnaround in business conditions through the second quarter, with collapsing production and demand in April at the height of the COVID-19 lockdown turning rapidly to stabilisation by June. The PMI posted a record 10-point rise in June amid unprecedented gains in the survey’s output, employment and order book gauges.

The record rise in the New Orders Index, coupled with low inventory holdings, bodes well for a further improvement in production momentum in July. A record upturn in business sentiment about the year ahead likewise hints that business spending and employment will start to revive.

“However, while the PMI currently points to a strong v-shaped recovery, concerns have risen that momentum could be lost if rising numbers of virus infections lead to renewed restrictions and cause demand to weaken again.”

It would appear hope is back as a strategy, but overall take your pick – is the US manufacturing sector expanding or contracting?

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Goldman Sachs now states that over 40% of the US businesses have reversed or placed reopenings on hold

Not good!

(zerohedge)

Goldman: Over 40% Of The US Has Reversed Or Placed Reopenings On Hold

In its latest state-level coronavirus tracker, Goldman calculates that 40% of the US has now reversed or placed reopening on hold. As the bank recaps, Arizona has now joined Florida, Texas and California in beginning to reverse reopening policy, bringing the share of the population in states where policy is becoming more restrictive up to 30% over just the past five days. Governors of several smaller states have announced their reopenings are on hold, and yesterday the governors of New York, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut each said they are considering postponing reopening plans as well.

With case growth still accelerating nationwide, Goldman writes that “states are likely to continue to take further targeted measures to attempt to mitigate virus spread and maintain available healthcare capacity at sustainable levels.”

Some more details from the report:

  • On Monday, the governor of Arizona issued an executive order closing bars, gyms, movie theaters, and water parks. In the order, the governor acknowledges that “there has not been sufficient time for mask mandates and limiting groups to have a demonstrable effect on containing the spread” and as a result the state must take further measures to contain the virus. The governor was pessimistic about the near-term outlook and said in a press conference that he expects the data to deteriorate over the next week.
  • It will likely take several days or longer for these latest change to have an effect on virus spread and health care resource utilization. Arizona meets none of the federal gating criteria recommended for reopening, and further steps in the state may be necessary to limit the spread of the virus, especially if hospitalizations continue to increase.
  • With Arizona now reversing the direction of its reopening policy, over 40% of the population is in a state that has halted reopening or reversed course. Yesterday, officials in other states including New York and Connecticut said they may follow  other states’ lead in putting reopening explicitly on hold. In Pennsylvania, localities in the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia areas have put their reopenings on hold, and the state governor has indicated he could take action at the state level.

States that have re-imposed stricter policy:

  • Florida: on-site alcohol sales prohibited at bars. Restaurants may continue in-person service.
  • Texas: restaurants must return to 50% occupancy limits, down from 75%. On-site alcohol sales prohibited at bars. Certain hospitals in large metro areas must postpone non-critical elective medical procedures. Further reopening plans placed on hold.
  • California: for 15 counties on the state’s “monitoring list,” on-site alcohol sales prohibited at bars. Restaurants may continue in-person service.
  • Arizona: the governor issued an executive order closing bars, gyms, movie theaters and water parks.

States that have postponed reopening plans or placed them on hold indefinitely:

  • Nevada, June 15: the governor said in a press conference the state is still “in the middle” of the pandemic and is not ready to move to its third phase.
  • Michigan, June 23: the governor announced the state would not move into its fifth phase, as expected, until new data show such a move is appropriate.
  • North Carolina, June 24: the governor announced the state will remain in its second phase of reopening for three more weeks and also imposed mask-wearing requirements.
  • Arkansas, June 25: the governor said in a press conference that the state is “on pause at two-thirds…until we feel comfortable [lifting] additional restrictions.”
  • Delaware, June 25: the governor delayed the third phase of reopening, which was scheduled for June 29, and plans to reevaluate in the next few days.
  • Idaho, June 25: the governor announced the state had not met the necessary criteria to move forward to its next phase and will remain in its fourth phase and adopt a regional reopening approach.
  • Louisiana, June 25: the governor extended the state’s second phase of reopening by four weeks, saying the data are “crystal clear” that the state is not ready to move forward.
  • New Mexico, June 25: the governor said in a press conference that the state will “pause a week or more” and that if new case counts increase further, the state may “slow reopenings, or worse.”
  • New Jersey, June 29: the governor said in a press conference that the state will not move forward with reopening in-person dining this week because of worsening virus conditions in other states.

Below is Goldman’s latest state-level coronavirus summary tracker:

As the next chart from Goldman shows, the pace of virus spread is increasing in several states, pulling the trend higher nationally. The estimated effective reproductive number (Rt), which measures the change in growth in new confirmed cases adjusted for testing volume, has risen to 1.10 on a population-weighted basis, indicating an acceleration in case growth nationwide.

Separately, in testimony to Congress, Anthony Fauci said the virus trend is “going in the wrong direction” nationally, and he expects new case counts could rise significantly further with Goldman adding that nationally, prevalence of symptoms, daily new cases, and the positive test rate are still increasing, and noting that states representing 8% of the population– Arizona, South Carolina, Mississippi, and Georgia–are meeting none of the federal criteria for reopening, and only 3 states representing 4% of the population are meeting all 4 criteria.

Additionally, Goldman writes that hospitalizations continue to increase in a few states across the South and Southwest where available hospital capacity is already low; at the same time, the prevalence of Covid-like illness symptoms and new cases per million are declining only in a few states, and the estimated effective reproductive number Rt (growth in new cases adjusted for testing) stands at 1.10 nationally. The positive test rate is rising nationally but remains below 10% in most states, and hospital capacity remains in passing territory for states representing most of the population.

In addition to the four gating criteria recommended by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) that we track, several states also list adequately high levels of contact tracing as one of the benchmarks they should meet to proceed with reopening. Today CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield said that contact tracing infrastructure nationally is in poor condition and “in need of aggressive modernization.” According to Dr. Redfield, contact tracing is only valuable when conducted “in real time.”

end

General Michael Flynn:  to us:

General Flynn To The ‘Silent Majority’: “Wake Up! America’s At Risk Of Being Lost”

Authored by General Michael Flynn (ret.), op-ed via WesternJournal.com,

I was once told if we’re not careful, 2 percent of the passionate will control 98 percent of the indifferent 100 percent of the time.

The more I’ve thought about this phrase, the more I believe it. There is now a small group of passionate people working hard to destroy our American way of life. Treason and treachery are rampant and our rule of law and those law enforcement professionals who uphold our laws are under the gun more than at any time in our nation’s history. These passionate 2 percent appear to be winning.

Despite there being countless good people trying to come to grips with everything else on their plates, our silent majority (the indifferent) can no longer be silent.

If the United States wants to survive the onslaught of socialism, if we are to continue to enjoy self-government and the liberty of our hard-fought freedoms, we have to understand there are two opposing forces: One is the “children of light” and the other is the “children of darkness.”

As I recently wrote, the art and exercise of self-governance require active participation by every American. I wasn’t kidding! And voting is only part of that active participation. Time and again, the silent majority have been overwhelmed by the “audacity and resolve” of small, well-organized, passionate groups. It’s now time for us, the silent majority (the indifferent), to demonstrate both.

The trials of our current times, like warfare, are immense and consequences severe and these seem inconquerable.

As a policewoman from Virginia told me, “People don’t feel safe in their homes and our police force is so demoralized we cannot function as we should. In my 23 years with my department, I have never seen morale so low.”

Another woman from Mississippi told me that we need our leaders to “drop a forceful hammer. People are losing patience. It simply must be stopped! Laws MUST be enforced … no one is above the law.”

Don’t fret. Through smart, positive actions of resolute citizen-patriots, we can prevail. Always keep in mind that our enemy (these dark forces) invariably have difficulties of which we are ignorant.

For most Americans, these forces appear to be strong. I sense they are desperate. I also sense that only a slight push on our part is all that is required to defeat these forces. How should that push come?

Prayers help and prayers matter, but action is also a remedy. Our law enforcement professionals, from the dispatcher to the detective and from the cop to the commissioner, are a line of defense against the corrupt and the criminal. It is how we remain (for now) in a state of relatively peaceful existence.

We must support them with all our being. They are not the enemy; they bring light to the darkness of night through their bravery and determination to do their jobs without fanfare and with tremendous sacrifice.

The silent majority (the indifferent) tend to go the way of those leading them. We are not map- or mind-readers; we are humans fraught with all the hopes and fears that flesh is heir to. We must not become lost in this battle. We must resoundingly follow our God-given common sense.

Seek the truth, fight for it in everything that is displayed before you. Don’t trust the fake news or false prophets; trust your instincts and your common sense. Those with a conscience know the difference between right and wrong, and those with courage will always choose the harder right over the easier wrong.

I believe the attacks being presented to us today are part of a well-orchestrated and well-funded effort that uses racism as its sword to aggravate our battlefield dispositions. This weapon is used to leverage and legitimize violence and crime, not to seek or serve the truth.

The dark forces’ weapons formed against us serve one purpose: to promote radical social change through power and control. Socialism and the creation of a socialist society are their ultimate goals.

They are also intent on driving God out of our families, our schools and our courts. They are even seeking the very removal of God from our churches, essentially hoping to remove God from our everyday lives.

Remember, we will only remain united as “one nation under God.”

And yes, there is a “resistance movement” by the forces of darkness. However, we must also resist these onslaughts and instead take an optimistic view of our situation. Like war, optimism can be pervasive and helps to subdue any rising sense of fear.

We must, however, be deliberate about our optimism. Otherwise, we may get lost in discouragement and despair of any failings we encounter. We must be tenacious in the ultimate end we wish to gain. That end is to remain an unwavering constitutional republic based on a set of Judeo-Christian values and principles. We must not fear these and instead embrace each.

Our path requires course corrections. To move our experiment in democracy forward, we should fight and reject the tired and failed political paths and instead pursue a more correct path that shines a bright light on liberty, a path with greater and greater control of our livelihoods instead of being controlled by fewer and fewer of the too-long-in-power politicians. They have discarded us like old trash.

Our will, our individual liberties and freedoms, remain powerful forces and must be understood and applied smartly. We must not be overly stubborn. Following the Constitution as our guide and adapting to change as we have throughout history, we learn more about what freedoms humans desire.

It is through our rights and privileges as American citizens that we challenge the political class and leverage our election process so “we the people” can decide who will govern.

We must not allow a small percentage of the powerful to overtake our position on America’s battlefield. We, as free-thinking and acting individuals, must control how we will live and not allow a few passionate others to change our way of life.

To the silent and currently indifferent majority: Wake up. America is at risk of being lost in the dustbin of history to socialism. The very heart and soul of America is at stake.

In war, as in life, most failure comes from inaction. We face a pivotal moment that can change the course of history of our nation.

We the people must challenge every politician at every level.

We also must stand and support our law enforcement professionals: They are the pointy end of the spear defending us against anarchy.

Now is the time to act.

end

This ought to tell you something about the NYSE//Nasdaq

“Red Flags Galore”: Companies Sold A Mindblowing $113 Billion In Stock In Q2

When it comes to bearish market flow red flags, aggressive selling of stock by corporate insiders is traditionally viewed as the biggest red flag – after all nobody knows the prospects for their companies better than the people who run them – followed closely by companies selling stock. The logic is simple: why sell today if you believe you may get a better price tomorrow.The answer is simple: you don’t, and instead you rush to lock in gains afforded by the market today.

In which case, it’s “red flags galore” because as the following chart from Goldman’s head of European Equity Sales, Mark Wilson, shows companies haven’t sold this much stock in a single quarter in… well, forever.

According to Bloomberg data, secondary offerings in the U.S. raised $113 billion in the second quarter, the most on record. The nearly 400 deals that priced this quarter is also the most ever.

As Goldman adds, “we’re about to close out another record month of global equity issuance, with June set to eclipse the recent record set in May; the numbers (>$230b of supply in 7 weeks), and the market’s ability to absorb this sizeable supply, have been impressive (the quantum of global supply vs prior peak periods shown in the 1st chart; US supply vs recent years trend shown in 2nd chart)”

Following up on this staggering pace of equity sales, Bloomberg writes that “the record-high pace of secondary offerings that took hold in the second quarter is poised to continue into the summer” as share sales by U.S.-listed firms and their top holders raised the most money and happened the most frequently of any other quarter on record.

With coronavirus shutdowns creating a sudden need for cash, issuers found an opportunity in a stock market that came roaring back from depths of the selloff in March. The paradox, of course, is that companies dumped stocks – with buybacks largely dormant – to a market dominated by (mostly young) daytraders who were so eager to lap anything up they almost bought an equity offering of worthless stock by bankrupt Hertz, another unprecedented event.

And in recent weeks activity has continued apace, with Bloomberg predicting that this promises big things for the third quarter as Covid-19 continues to rattle the economy. Convertible bond issuance also surged this quarter. Those deals amounted to more than triple the cash raised in the second quarter of 2019 as some companies needing money looked to minimize the impact of dilution while capitalizing on lower rates.

It’s not just companies that have benefited from the unprecedented demand for equities: for bankers, these deals have been a helpful avenue to recoup business lost to the slowdown in initial public offerings and M&A activity.

… all under the convenient lie that it is laboring on behalf of the US middle class.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

This is a must see…

WaPo Does Damage Control After “Far More Damaging” Biden-Ukraine Tapes Disclosed

The Washington Post is trying to get ahead of what Rudy Giuliani says are “far more damaging” tapes of 2016 phone calls between former Vice President Joe Biden and former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, which are set for release over the summer by a former Ukrainian diplomat.

To review, Biden conditioned a $1 billion US loan guarantee on the firing of Ukraine’s chief prosecutor, who was leading a wide-ranging investigation into Burisma – a Ukrainian energy company which hired Hunter Biden to sit on its board.

In May, Ukrainian MP Andrii Derkach released recordings of Biden and Poroshenko which explicitly detail the quid-pro-quo arrangement to fire the prosecutor, Victor Shokin (which Biden already admitted to).

Biden’s campaign says the tapes are part of a ‘conspiracy theory to smear him’ – while Poroshenko claims they are fabricated.

In one of the May tapes, Poroshenko reports back with “positive news” that Shokin – “despite of the fact that we didn’t have any corruption charges” – had been fired.

Last week, more recordings of Biden and Poroshenko were published to the YouTube channel, “NABU Leaks,” where the two can be heard discussing ongoing efforts by the United States to help Ukraine with various matters.

And according to a Tuesday report in the Washington Postmore tapes are coming.

Both Giuliani and Lev Parnas, a Ukrainian-American businessman who served as his fixer in Ukraine, confirmed that they sought tapes of Biden last year. Giuliani said he received assistance in his pursuit from a source within the State Department, who he claimed pointed him to the dates of certain conversations between Biden and Poroshenko by accessing an official U.S. government archive.

Giuliani told The Washington Post that he did not know the recently released recordings were coming before they were posted online last month. But in a recent interview with OAN, the former New York mayor claimed to be aware of other tapes that were “far more damaging,” saying, “I would hope that those tapes are put out also.” –Washington Post

The Post calls the clips “heavily edited” and paints Derkach, the Ukrainian MP, as essentially a proxy for Vladimir Putin. They also suggest that “the efforts to promote the recordings in Ukraine and the United States — and pledges by other Trump allies to release more in the coming months — suggest a new push by foreign forces to sway American voters in the run-up to the 2020 election,” and claim that the NABU leaks “further illustrate Trump’s willingness to benefit from foreign intervention in U.S. elections,” despite offering no evidence that Trump is involved in the leaks.

Well-worn playbooks aside, the Biden campaign had this to say of the audio clips:

“All the president’s men, both within our country and outside of it, have been constantly trafficking in objectively false, malicious conspiracy theories targeting Joe Biden since before he even entered the race. And their efforts have invariably fallen apart — because the American people know Joe Biden, his character, and his values.”

More damage control by WaPo:

The hunt by the president’s alliesfor the Biden tapes and their subsequent release have echoes of the 2016 campaign, when Trump publicly asked Russia to find emails of his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton. Trump later said the comment was a joke, even as GOP operatives mounted a serious but unsuccessful operation to obtain her emails from hackers claiming to have them.

Democratic emails stolen by Russian intelligence officers were ultimately released through WikiLeaks, as special counsel Robert S. Mueller III detailed in his report. The sequence of events sparked a nearly two-year investigation, multiple congressional inquiries and federal charges against 12 Russian military intelligence officers. –Washington Post

And here it is:

U.S. intelligence officials have warned that Russia could reprise its efforts to influence the race for the White House again this year.

And they keep going with the Russia angle, to the surprise of nobody:

Michael Carpenter, a Biden foreign policy adviser and former senior Defense Department official, called the tape snippets that Derkach is releasing “a KGB-style disinformation operation tied to pro-Russian forces in Ukraine whose chief aim is to make deceptive noise in the U.S. election campaign to advance the interests of their oligarchic backers, the Kremlin, and the faltering Trump campaign.”

The report also names non Russians (who might be secret Russians) who could be behind the tapes, including former Ukrainian Diplomat Andrii Telizhenko, and Ukrainian gas tycoon and former lawmaker Oleksandr Onyshchenko.

According to Telizhenko “This summer there will be more release of conversations, with full transcripts,” adding “I’m going to release everything all together when the time is right.”

Can we say “deadman’s switch?”

END

Trump Never Briefed On Unvetted Russian Bounty Intel Because NSA “Strongly Dissented”  

On Tuesday, the same day that Joe Biden finally emerged to hold his first press conference in 89 days in order to lash out at what he called Trump’s “dereliction of duty” over the NY Times Russian bounties for Taliban militants to kill American troops in Afghanistan story, The Wall Street Journal issued this bombshell:

The National Security Agency strongly dissented from other intelligence agencies’ assessment that Russia paid bounties for the killing of U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan, according to people familiar with the matter.

The disclosure of the dissent by the NSA, which specializes in electronic eavesdropping, comes as the White House has played down the revelations, saying that the information wasn’t verified and that intelligence officials didn’t agree on it.

 

NSA headquarters in Maryland, file image.

As we noted before, it appears a return this week to mainstream media’s prior years of near daily breathless Russiagate reporting, with “anonymous intelligence sources” issuing new leaks of unvetted raw intel to the press.

The WSJ points out that it was primarily the NSA’s firm dissent that kept the Russian bounties allegation out of the president’s daily briefing  which both further confirms the White House’s denials of the initial Friday Times reporting, as well as contradicts the NYT “revelation” itself.

Because of that [NSA dissent], President Trump was never personally briefed on the threat, the White House said, although a key lawmaker said the information apparently was included in written intelligence materials prepared for Mr. Trump,” WSJ underscores.

No details were given as to precisely how the NSA differed in its assessment of the Russian bounty allegations. For those keeping score, this marks the third major formal distancing from the substance of the NYT reporting by US intelligence agencies and intel community leadership.

Also recall this isn’t the first instance of significant NSA pushback concerning explosive charges aimed at Russia:

CIA Director Gina Haspel also appeared to vindicate the White House’s assertion of lack of credible intelligence behind it in a Monday statement. Essentially the CIA director seemed to reference the danger of “cherry-picking” from lower level unvetted raw information.“When developing intelligence assessments, initial tactical reports often require additional collection and validation,” Haspel said.

“Leaks compromise and disrupt the critical interagency work to collect, assess, and ascribe culpability,” she added, strongly suggesting that indeed there was not enough to go on concerning the Russian bounty allegations for it to rise to the level of the commander-in-chief. In actually this was further a CIA condemnation of the “anonymous” leakers out of which the whole narrative was spun.

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

CNN: People with coronavirus are crossing the US-Mexico border for medical care

An increase in cross-border coronavirus cases, which began getting public attention in May, overwhelmed some California hospitals and spurred the state to create a new patient transfer system to help… “What has happened as the situation has worsened on the Mexican side of the line is that a number of the US citizens are returning to the United States to seek care for Covid-19,” says Coyle of the California Hospital Association…  https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/29/health/border-hospitals-coronavirus/index.html

@drdavidsamadi: According to reporting from @TheAtlantic, the CDC is counting positive antibody tests in with the rest of the positive coronavirus tests. If true, that is certainly another reason why we have such a massive increase in positive tests compared to other countries.  COVID-19 does not scare me. The politics of this virus, however, do worry me. We do not need to enter yet another lockdown…

The media and Internet are teeming with stories, some from healthcare whistleblowers, that claim states are double or triple counting Covid cases.  Each time a person tests positive for Covid in some states, the person is being registered as a new Covid case.

@JordanSchachtel: COVID-19 update: Today was lowest # of Monday deaths since March 23. 98 days ago. Lowest # on record w full testing capacity. New lows in deaths every week. Consistent decline week after week. Tune out media hysterics. Death rate is plummeting. Now, States just need to wake up.

 

LA Orders Closure of Beaches for July 4th Weekend, Sheriff Refuses to Enforce Ban

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/la-orders-closure-beaches-july-4th-weekend-sheriff-refuses-enforce-ban

Oil major Shell to write down up to $22 billion of assets in second quarter

Shell said in a statement to investors that it had reviewed a significant portion of its business given the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the “ongoing challenging commodity price environment.”…

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/shell-to-write-down-assets-worth-up-to-22-billion-in-q2.html

Die Welt’s @Schuldensuehner: ECB Balance sheet tops €6tn for 1st time ever. Total assets rose by a whopping €600bn or 11% to €6.24tn on massive TLTRO intake by banks. Banks took €1.31tn in long-term loans from ECB w/an interest rate below ZERO. ECB balance sheet now equals to record 52% of Eurozone GDPhttps://t.co/7Q5XBLPqZv

@zerohedge: The Federal Reserve is now: #3 holder of LQD [IG Bond fund], #5 holder of JNK, #2 holder of VCSH [Short-term Corp Bond ETF), #5 holder of VCIT [Medium-term Corp Bond ETF].  The @federalreserve has taken over capital markets under the false pretext of “helping the middle class

Unemployment payments surpass $100 billion in June, the most for a single month since the pandemic started – with one day left to report… $108.5B … https://trib.al/IeXQieK

Today – Traders will play for the expected rally to start the month and new quarter.  Indexers are expected to buy stocks near or at the close.  An enormous amount of resources were expended to markup stuff to embellish Q2 results.  With Q2 over, people will be exiting for the 4th of July weekend.  So, barring news, today’s session should be quieter than Tuesday’s action.

The afternoon could get very quiet because of higher absenteeism and traders’ concerned about the June Employment Report, which will be reported tomorrow.  God only knows what the BLS will report; and saner angels will be worried that there could be a large downward revision to May’s stunning NFP.

Report: Iran pays $1,000 for each U.S. soldier killed by the Taliban      9/5/2010

Afghan group’s treasurer admits receiving money from Iran, newspaper says

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/39014669/ns/world_news-south_and_central_asia/t/report-iran-pays-each-us-soldier-killed-taliban/

 

Obama not only did nothing about Iran’s bounty on US GIs; he snuggled up to Iran and gave them billions of dollars.  Where were the MSM outrage and calls for Congressional Hearings on Iran’s bounty?

 

@WSJ: The NSA strongly dissented from other intelligence agencies’ assessment that Russia paid bounties for the killing of U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan, according to people familiar with the matter https://on.wsj.com/3gdTGAm

 

@BillGertz: Anti-Trump media is doubling down on the now doubtful story that Russia offered bounties to terrorists in Afghanistan to kill US troops. Pentagon is most vocal asserting there is “no corroborating evidence,” in other words the intel is complete horses#@t

 

CBS_Herridge: Late night on record statement National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien who has direct knowledge. “Because the allegations in recent press articles have not been verified or substantiated by the Intel Community, President Trump had not been briefed on the items.”

    Statement Pentagon DoD “continues to evaluate intelligence that Russian GRU operatives were engaged in malign activity against United States and coalition forces in Afghanistan. To date, DOD has no corroborating evidence to validate the recent allegations…”

 

GOP Rep Jim Banks: ‘Certainly Possible’ Intelligence Swamp Leaked Russian Bounty Story to Keep U.S. in Afghanistan – Banks, a veteran who served in Afghanistan and a member of the House Armed Services Committee, said that he had received a briefing from the White House on the Times’ story. He said that we might never know the truth about the New York Times story because the paper damaged national security officials’ ability to investigate the claim

https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2020/06/30/jim-banks-certainly-possible-intelligence-swamp-leaked-russian-bounty-story-to-keep-u-s-in-afghanistan/

 

Media Are Playing Games Yet Again with Anonymous Russia Leaks   https://t.co/gCfnDqo3d8

 

@ChadPergram: Dem TN Rep Cohen intros resolution for Hse to begin impeachment inquiry into Barr. Has 35 co-sponsors. Says “Barr obstructs justice by favoring the President’s friends and political allies. He abuses his power by using the DoJ to harass, intimidate & attack disfavored Americans”

 

Dems tweet then delete post linking Trump’s Mt. Rushmore event to ‘glorifying white supremacy’

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dems-delete-tweet-accusing-trump-for-glorifying-white-supremacy-at-scheduled-fourth-of-july-event-at-mt-rushmore

 

@MrAndyNgo: Inspired by Seattle, militant left-wing protesters have created another “autonomous” no-cop zone around NYC’s City Hall.   https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1277824748454465536

 

Why no outrage? Atlanta shootings surge, but it’s not the cops

During the first three weeks of this month — May 31 to June 20 — 75 people have been shot in Atlanta. Last year during that period, 35 people were shot in the city.  At this rate it’ll be 100 shot by July.  Eleven people have been killed during that three-week period. Last year? Five…

https://www.ajc.com/news/local/opinion-hello-outrage-atlanta-shootings-surge-but-not-the-cops/pUYKjFGY8LcxSVlrHZpb4H/

 

WarnerMedia puts CNN Center up for sale – WarnerMedia said Monday it will sell the iconic CNN Center in downtown Atlanta, but that it doesn’t mean the network will abandon the city…

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jun/29/cnn-center-atlanta-sale-warnermedia/

 

WaPo Does Damage Control after “Far More Damaging” Biden-Ukraine Tapes Disclosed

The Washington Post is trying to get ahead of what Rudy Giuliani says are “far more damaging” tapes of 2016 phone calls between former Vice President Joe Biden and former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, which are set for release over the summer by a former Ukrainian diplomat…Telizhenko… “This summer there will be more release of conversations, with full transcripts,” adding “I’m going to release everything all together when the time is right.”…

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/wapo-does-damage-control-after-far-more-damaging-biden-ukraine-tapes-disclosed

 

Joe Biden’s first press conference in 89 days did not go well.  Joe said he has not been tested for Covid.

 

@TrumpWarRoom: Joe Biden is calling on pre-selected reporters using a list given to him by his handlers.  The first two questions from the media so far: How should Trump be punished?  Where do you think the race stands?

 

@LizRNC: Hasn’t taken questions in 89 days and now he has a pre-approved list?  His handlers are terrified to let Biden out of the basementHow pathetic!  [Biden: “He gave me a list of who to recognize.”  Joe admits to pre-approvals.] https://twitter.com/LizRNC/status/1278018621164396546

 

@SteveGuest: Despite looking down at his notes, Joe Biden forgot the name of his hometown newspaper.

https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1278023665020547073

    Joe Biden has to look at notes to remind himself to not tear down statues of Founding Fathers.

https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1278030296479391745

 

@ByronYork: At newser, Biden is asked, can you tell us what you would do to Putin if the Russia bounty story is true? Answer: ‘I can, but I will not, but I will tell him.’

 

@ABCPolitics: Asked how he’d get Americans on same page over a COVID-19 response if elected, Joe Biden tells ABC’s @marykbruce.   “We have to start appealing to the better side of human nature…It’s called patriotism. It’s called responsibility.” https://abcn.ws/2ZjF6AC

 

@CBSNews: Biden announces that he is not going to hold campaign rallies, complying with health guidance during the pandemic: “This is the most unusual campaign, I think, in modern history” [Is Team Biden going to continue to hide Joe?  Where is the MSM outrage?] http://cbsnews.com/live

 

One of Joe’s ‘moments’ at his presser yesterday: https://twitter.com/TrumpJew/status/1278025611487870978

 

The final questioner asked Joe if he has been tested for cognitive decline.  Biden responded: “I’ve been tested and I’m constantly tested.  Lookall you have to do is watch me…”

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1278026980605165569

 

No reporter asked Biden about his alleged proposal to use the Logan Act to get Gen. Flynn in January 2017 or Joe’s lying about his role in the prosecution of Gen. Flynn.

 

GOP Sen @LindseyGrahamSC: If you had any doubt whether the mainstream media is basically an extension of the Democratic Party, today’s press conference with @JoeBiden should remove all doubt.

[For the softball questioning until the end] You wonder why almost all Republicans have tuned out mainstream media?   Just watch today’s news conference.

 

Bush II spokesman @AriFleischer: The difference between the tenor of the questions to Biden compared to the questions asked of Trump is striking. After 8 years of going easy on Obama, almost 4 years of being brutal to Trump, the MSM seems happy to go easy again.  What wasn’t asked: 1) Anything about Biden’s role in authorizing surveillance against the Trump campaign 2) Do blue lives matter? 3) Should CHOP in Seattle never have been allowed? 4) Will you prosecute those who destroy statues?…

 

Overwhelming 73% voters say Biden VP pick should be most qualified person, no matter race or gender – Overall, 15% of U.S. voters believe Biden should pick a woman of color, 10% say a woman, and 2% would like a person of color…

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/polling/overwhelming-73-voters-say-biden-vp-pick-should-be-most-qualified-person-no

 

Remember, Sen. Kamala Harris was the MSM and Obama’s pick for the presidency.  Rep. Tulsi Gabbard destroyed Harris in an early debate by highlighting her alleged prosecutorial abuses as California AG and her heritage.  Rep. Gabbard upbraided Harris for deceitfully playing up her black heritage when she is Indian-Jamaican and her grandparents owned slaves.  Harris collapsed in the polls.

 

Now, reporters are appearing that Harris will be Biden’s VP because the Democratic Establishment wants Kamala to be the de facto president and Obama to be the puppet master.

 

Kamala Harris will be Joe Biden’s VP pick, Miranda Devine says

She is, after all, a good friend of President [Barack] Obama and he’ll be the sort of silent force behind the throne of Joe Biden.”… “The fact that President Trump has quietly been wooing the black vote and doing quite well and I think that has been a real shock for the Democrats. They’re desperately trying to hold on to their monopoly on the black vote,” Devine said… 

https://www.foxnews.com/media/miranda-devine-believes-kamala-harris-biden-vp

 

Secret Service Provided Hunter Biden Protection on More Than 400 Flights – according to newly released records from the Obama administration…Biden took 411 domestic and international flights upon which the federal government provided security between June 2009 and May 2014.   Listed among the destinations were 29 foreign countries, including five visits to China alone between 2009 and 2014…

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/06/29/secret-service-provided-hunter-biden-protection-on-more-than-400-flights/

 

@CurtisHouck: Tucker Carlson: The weakness of Republicans is “a severe and dangerous problem…. Republicans at all levels could lose this fall. If they do, there will be profound consequences for you….There’s never been an American political party as radical and as angry as the Democrats are now. 

 

Carlson continued: Imagine them with unlimited power… Democrats will give voting rights to every illegal immigrant in this country and encourage many others to join them from abroad.  At a minimum that means 20 million new Democratic voters.  No Republican will win nationally again.  We will have one party rule…They plan to pack the Supreme Court, too.  They have said so.  What will Democrats do with all this untrammeled power?  It’s pretty easy to imagine…Look around; you have a pretty good idea of what is coming…  https://twitter.com/CurtisHouck/status/1278119204990976000

 

John Roberts Joins Liberals Again, Solidifying Bush’s Abysmal Legacy

https://bigleaguepolitics.com/john-roberts-joins-liberals-again-solidifying-bushs-abysmal-legacy/

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you THURSDAY night.

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