JULY 6//GOLD UP $6.50 TO $1784.40//SILVER UP 24 CENTS TO $18.25//GOLD SPREAD SPOT TO FUTURE $9.10 //IN SILVER: 33 CENTS/COMEX GOLD TONNAGE STANDING; 17.7 TONNES//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES FRIDAY-MONDAY//MANY COMMENTARIES RE CHINA VS USA////FOR THE THIRD TIME IN A WEEK EXPLOSIONS ROCK IRAN/USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT////

GOLD:$1784.40  UP $6.50   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$18.25// UP 24 CENTS  London spot price

 

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1784.50  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $18.27//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

AUG GOLD:  $1793.50  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE AUG /: $9.10

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER SEPT COMEX CLOSE;   $18.58…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :  33 CENTS  PER OZ

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2600. usa per oz

and silver; $29.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

TOMORROW WE WILL HAVE THE JOBS REPORT AND AS USUAL, THEY WHACK THE DAY BEFORE/

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 171/532

issued 300

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,784.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/02/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 07/07/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 115 4
072 H GOLDMAN 47
135 H RAND 2
152 C DORMAN TRADING 6
159 C ED&F MAN CAP 1
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 2
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 2
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 40
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 93
661 C JP MORGAN 300 171
686 C INTL FCSTONE 2
690 C ABN AMRO 10 19
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 35 37
800 C MAREX SPEC 65 79
878 C PHILLIP CAPITAL 6 5
905 C ADM 20
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 532 532
MONTH TO DATE: 4,973

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 552 NOTICE(S) FOR 55200 OZ (1.716 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  4973 NOTICES FOR 497300 OZ  (15.468 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JULY

 

 

28 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 140,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 13,040 for 65,200,000 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $9195  UP 121  

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $9293 UP $293

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $6.50 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:  A DEPOSIT OF 9.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//

 

GLD: 1,191.47 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE  SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 503.871  MILLION OZ./

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 239 CONTRACTS FROM 167,352 UP  TO 167,591, AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE TINY SIZED GAIN IN  OI OCCURRED WITH OUR  4 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, ACCOMPANYING  A SMALL DECREASE  IN SILVER STANDING  AT THE COMEX FOR JULY.  WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 610 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A HUGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   JULY: 0  AND SEP 371 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  371 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 489 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 371 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 1.67 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 4 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

82.725 MILLION OZ INITIALLY IN JULY.

 

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 4 CENTS).. AND,OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE NO DOUBT SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. THE TINY GAIN AT THE COMEX WAS ACCOMPANIED BY : i)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A SMALL DECLINE IN STANDING OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY,  STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A STRONG NET GAIN OF 610 CONTRACTS OR 3.050 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

JULY

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF JULY:

1194 CONTRACTS (FOR 3 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 1194 CONTRACTS) OR 5.970 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 398 CONTRACTS OR 1.990 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY: 5.970 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 1.64% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,143.38 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EXP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EXP                               5.970 MILLION OZ/

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE FOR THE PAST 60 DAYS IS A LOT LESS.  NO DOUBT THAT THE COST TO CARRY THESE THINGS HAS EXPLODED  AND AS SUCH CANNOT BE DONE AS FREQUENTLY AS BEFORE.

 

RESULT: WE HAD A  TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 239, WITH OUR 4  GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///THURSDAYTHE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 371 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A  SMALL SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  610 CONTRACTS (WITH OUR 4 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)//

 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 371 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A TINY SIZED INCREASE OF 239 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED DESPITE A 4 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.01 // THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.8380 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 119% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  JULY  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 28 NOTICE(S) FOR 140,000  OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 82.725 million oz
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 2575 CONTRACTS TO 556,748 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE TINY SIZED GAIN OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE  OF $7.00 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// THURSDAY// WE  HAD HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED  GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JULY, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $7.00 .

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  31

 

WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 5422 CONTRACTS  (16.86 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 2847 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT .; AUG 2847 AND DEC: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2105.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 556,748. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5422 CONTRACTS: 2578 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2847 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 5422 CONTRACTS OR 16.86 TONNES. THURSDAY, WE HAD A GAIN OF $7.00 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE HAD A GOOD SIZED LOSS IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 16.86 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR  SUPPLIED INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT ROSE $7.00).AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WAS  ALSO UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

 

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (2847) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (2575 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  5540 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)ANOTHER STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT JULY MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION; 4) CONSIDERABLE COMEX OI LOSS.. AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//THURSDAY//$7.00.

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD

 

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST FOR GOLD:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUGUST), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY : 9347 CONTRACTS OR 934,700 oz OR 29.22 TONNES (3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3115 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 29.22 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 29.22/3550 x 100% TONNES =0.823% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3056.82  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                      29.22 TONNES SO FAR..

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 239 CONTRACTS FROM 167,352 DOWN TO 167,591 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE TINY GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO;   1)   HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A SMALL DECREASE STANDING AT THE SILVER COMEX FOR JULY AND  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 371 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 334 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 371 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN  OF 239  CONTRACTS TO THE 371 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GAIN OF 610 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3.05 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH THE 4 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///

 

 

RESULT: A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 4 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 371 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 180.07 POINTS OR 5.21%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 966.04 POINTS OR 3.81%   /The Nikkei closed UP 407.96 POINTS OR 1.83%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .61%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0224 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0224 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0182 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED //CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC// : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 2575 CONTRACTS TO 556,866 MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS LARGE  COMEX FALL OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $7.00 IN GOLD PRICING /THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (2847 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER HUMONGOUS STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//JULY DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) , …  AS WE ENGINEERED A GOOD GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5422 CONTRACTS WITH GOLD’S CONSIDERABLE GAIN IN PRICE. NOTE THE FACT THAT THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ARE SMALL.. SOME OF OUR MAJOR BANKERS ARE BANNED FROM USING THE SERIAL FORWARDS.  IF THEY USE THIS VEHICLE IT MUST BE USED FOR PHYSICAL ONLY.

 

 

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 31

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2847 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  AUG  2847 AND 0 FOR DEC AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2847 CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  5422 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2847 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 2575 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A SMALL  AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL COMEX OI GAIN,  A HUGE  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR THE JULY DELIVERY (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)… AND ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION……AND WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN COMEX PRICE OF  7.00 DOLLARS..

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $7.00).  AND, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS 

AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A GOOD 16.86 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 5422 CONTRACTS OR 542,200 OZ OR 16.86 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  556,748 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 55.67 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1731 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1731/2200 OR 78.72% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 147,382 contracts//very low volume//most traders have moved to London

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  207,554 contracts//  volume low //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

JULY 6 /2020

JULY GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

160,755.000

OZ

JPMORGAN

5,000 KILOBARS

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
552 notice(s)
 55,200 OZ
(1.716 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
718 contracts
(71800 oz)
2.233 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4973 notices
497,300 OZ
15.468 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 

total deposit: nil oz

 

DEALER WITHDRAWAL: 0

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

 

 

i) Into JPMorgan: 160,755.000 oz 5,000 kilobars

 

 

total deposit:  160,755.000 oz

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  nil  oz

We had 2  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 0 //    

customer to dealer:

Loomis:  12,924.300 (402 kilobars)

Manfra:  74,048.562 oz

both adjusted from the customer to dealer.

 

 

 

The front month of JULY registered a total of 1720 oi contracts FOR a LOSS of 518 contracts. We had 744 notices served on WEDNESDAY so we GAINED  a whopping 226 contracts or an additional 22,600 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into London based forwards.

 

 

Next comes August another strong delivery month and here the OI FELL by A SMALL 708  contracts DOWN to 381,866 contracts.

Sept saw another addition of 6 contracts to stand at 62.  Oct GAINED 535 contracts up to 36,469.

 

We had 552 notices filed today for 55200 oz

 

FOR THE JULY 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 300 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 532 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 171 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 51 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4973) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JULY (1270 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (552 x 100 oz per contract) equals 564100 OZ OR 17.701 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (4973 x 100 oz + (1270 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (552) x 100 oz which equals 564,100 oz standing OR 17.701 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE record amount for gold standing for a JULY delivery month (a  non active delivery month).

We gained 226 contracts or an additional 22,600 oz will stand at the comex.

We are now witnessing an increase in queue jumping on a daily basis. Sooner or later they will be running out of metal to supply our longs.

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

312,441.780 oz PLEDGED  JUNE 24// 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.036 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

19,290.600 oz Pledged May 8/2020   INT DELAWARE:  .600 TONNES

 

657,424.187 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/july 2               20.448 tonnes

total pledged gold:  1,175,793.827 oz                                     36.572 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 363.52 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS ie. 17.701 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  12,863,015.270 oz or 400.093 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (SOME  DELETED JUNE 24 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  312,441.780 oz (or 9.718 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    19,290.600 oz  which cannot be settled:   (.600 tonnes)
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  21,026.754 oz which cannot be settled June 5 (.65402 tonnes)
g) pledged gold at Brinks: 657,424.187 oz added which cannot be settled:  20.448 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,175,793.827 oz or 36.572 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 11,687,222.0  (363.52 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  11,687222.0 (363.52 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  19,582,269.640 oz (609.09 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   32,445,284.910 oz 1009.18 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  882.84 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of April 2018. and it continues to present day.  Thus 24 data entry points.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.  Gold owners are very clear people.  They would know full well that

the gold at the comex is unallocated and that they would not be stupid enough to keep their gold at the comex especially in the registered category once deliveries are asked upon. If physical gold was present it would be have removed from the comex… It shows there is no gold at the comex.  They are just trading in sticky paper.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

JULY 6/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 239 CONTRACTS FROM 169,418 UP TO 167,591 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,384 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE TINY GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS DUE TO;   1) CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A SMALL DECREASE AMOUNT OF  SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE JULY CONTRACT MONTH ,  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

WE STILL HAVE A HUMONGOUS AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JULY.

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 371 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 371 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 371 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN  OF 239  CONTRACTS TO THE 371 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL GAIN OF 610 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3.050 MILLION  OZ OCCURRED WITH THE 4 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///

 

 

 

RESULT: A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 4 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 371 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

JULY 6/2020

JULY SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 301,895.740 oz
CNT
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,804,641300 oz
HSBC
LOOMIS
No of oz served today (contracts)
28
CONTRACT(S)
(140,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3505 contracts
 17,525,000, oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  13,040 contracts

65,200,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposit into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii) Into HSBC  584,103.300 oz

iii) Into Loomis:  1,220,938.000 oz??

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.744 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.53% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/324.612 million

 

total customer deposits today: 1,804,641.300    oz

we had 1 withdrawals:

i) Out of CNT:  749,987.120 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 40,563.600 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 790,550.720   oz

We had 0 adjustments

 

 

total dealer silver: 126.259 million

total dealer + customer silver:  324.612 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The front month of July has an open interest of  3533 contracts, as we lost 771 contracts.  We had 744 notices served on WEDNESDAY, so we LOST a tiny 27 contracts or an additional 135,000 oz will NOT stand in this active delivery month of July as they received a London based forward and a fiat bonus for their effort.. They boys seem to have a problem serving upon our longs at the comex.

 

 

The next month after July is the non active month of  August and here  sees its open interest FELL by 23 contracts DOWN to 722

The big September contract month sees a GAIN of 799 contracts UP to 132,596.

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JULY 2020. contract month is represented by 28 contract(s) FOR 120,000, oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 13,040 x 5,000 oz = 65,200,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY.(3533) and the number of notices served upon today 28 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JULY/2019 contract month: 13,040 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (3533)- number of notices served upon today (28) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month.equals 82,725,000 oz.  (A WHOPPER )

WE LOST 27 CONTRACTS OR 135,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND ON DAY 2.  HOWEVER IF HISTORY SERVES US WELL, WE WILL WITNESS SHORTLY QUEUE JUMPING AS THE BANKS(BULLION DEALERS) TRY TO SQUANDER AS MUCH SILVER AS THEY GAIN ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 54,004 CONTRACTS // volume fair/

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 55,124.,CONFIRMED VOLUME//volume very  low/

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 55,124 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 275 million  OZ  39.3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO- 0.55% ((JULY 6/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -0.27% to NAV:   (JULY 6/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 0.55%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 16.99 TRADING 16.92///NEGATIVE 0.42

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JULY 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 30//WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 29/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.61 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $5.03 TODAY: VERY STRANGE: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.46 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1175.39 TONNES

JUNE 25//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.6 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1176.85 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.50 TODAY;  A STRONG 3.21 TONNES ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.25  TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $25.50 TODAY/ANOTHER CRIMINAL PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1166.04 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 23.09 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.31 TONNES

JUNE 19/WITH GOLD UP$16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//; INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 18//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 16//WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $8.80 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 12//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 11//WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 6.55 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1135.05 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1129.50 TONNES

JUNE 9//WITH GOLD UP $16.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.63 TONNES OF GOLD AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1125.48 TONNES

JUNE 8//WITH GOLD UP $18.70 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.10 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1128.11 TONNES

 

JUNE 5//WITH GOLD DOWN $40.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.21 TONNES

JUNE 4//WITH GOLD UP $20.60: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD…A DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1133.37 TONNES

JUNE 3//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.15//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//A DEPOSIT OF 0.78 TONNES OF GLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1129.28 TONNES

JUNE 2//WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1128.40 TONNES

JUNE 1//WITH GOLD UP $1.30//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES OF GOLD//GLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1123.14 TONNES

MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $19.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///GLD INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 28//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS  AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD UP $.10 TODAY: A STRONG 2.34 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1119.05 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

JULY 6/ GLD INVENTORY 1191.47 tonnes*

LAST;  853 TRADING DAYS:   +247.57 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 753 TRADING DAYS://+425.75  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JULY 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.008 MILLION OZ

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.403 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.007 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 466,000 OZ TO PAY FOR STORAGE FEES AND INSURANCE//// AND A LARGE DEPOSIT OF 1.212 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 931,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 24///WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS// NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.473 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 486/454 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 19//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE!!  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 839,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486,454 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 932,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.293 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.261 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.361 MILLION OZ

JUNE 16//WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.118 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.100 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.982  MILLION OZ///

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.269 MILLION OZ AND 1.802 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 481.982 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 11//WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.89 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER  UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.849 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.605 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.849 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE WITHDRAWALS OF 932,000 MILLION OZ AND 1.491 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.240 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 648,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.663  MILLION OZ

JUNE 4//WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

 

JUNE 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 2//WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUMONGOUS 6.686 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 1//WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.56 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 466.629 MILLION OZ//

MAY 29//WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.796 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 463.273 MILLION OZ//

MAY 28//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.660 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.477 MILLION OZ//

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.817 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 6.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

503.871 MILLION OZ.

END

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Silver and Platinum Bar Deliveries Surge As Banks Take Delivery

 Physical Demand Supply Imbalance Spreading from Gold to Silver and Platinum and Prices To Gain

 ‘Chaos’ in gold markets ripples to silver and platinum markets

 Silver, platinum exchange physical bar deliveries surge as banks reposition

 Falling open interest signals increase of metal on CME exchanges as turmoil causes inventories to jump amid efforts to meet the shortages

via Bloomberg

The chaos that engulfed the gold market in March as the global pandemic choked off physical trading routes is rippling through other precious metals, resulting in price dislocations and a surge in exchange inventories for silver and platinum.

The gold market was thrown into turmoil in March as lockdowns grounded planes and closed refineries, leading traders to worry they wouldn’t be able to get gold to New York in time to deliver against futures contracts. That caused futures, which typically trade close to the London spot price, to soar to a premium, inflicting losses on banks that struggled to close arbitrage bets and spurring them to shift some positions out of New York futures.

There are signs that the dynamic isn’t limited to gold. Silver and platinum futures have traded at elevated levels relative to spot metals since early April. And as in the case of gold, the premiums are spurring big increases in on-exchange inventories in New York.

On Monday, first-notice data for the July silver contract on the Comex in New York showed the largest single day of deliveries in almost 25 years. Deliveries for platinum on the New York Mercantile Exchange were more than five times the next largest month this year.

Those deliveries serve as a way for banks to reduce their exposure to price dislocations and limit risk, said David Holmes, a senior vice president at Heraeus Metals New York, a precious metals refiner.

Full article via Bloomberg

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold Gains 16% with an 8 – Year High: Why It Will Continue to Rise

PRECIOUS – Gold ticks higher as virus fears counter gains in equities

Asia shares jump as China blue chips scale five-year peak

One fifth of German firms fear for their survival

Indian man wears gold face mask to ward off coronavirus

Cutting dollar from gold sparked pernicious changes

‘Capital Markets Are Not Free’: Billionaire Investor Ray Dalio Says the Fed Is Boosting Asset Prices, Valuation Metrics Don’t Apply, and the U.S. Dollar Is At Risk

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

03-Jul-20  1774.65 1772.90, 1426.29 1422.40 & 1580.33 1577.70
02-Jul-20  1771.85 1777.45, 1415.00 1421.60 & 1568.97 1577.13
01-Jul-20  1787.40 1771.15, 1444.90 1424.63 & 1592.93 1574.82
30-Jun-20 1770.70 1768.10, 1444.18 1436.58 & 1580.35 1577.32
29-Jun-20 1768.80 1771.60, 1434.67 1440.31 & 1571.23 1573.54
26-Jun-20 1762.10 1747.60, 1420.61 1414.51 & 1570.03 1559.91
25-Jun-20 1758.55 1756.55, 1412.64 1414.73 & 1565.29 1565.79
24-Jun-20  1775.70 1766.05, 1420.74 1416.90 & 1573.63 1567.55
23-Jun-20  1755.60 1768.90, 1409.85 1416.36 & 1556.17 1560.70
22-Jun-20  1745.45 1761.85, 1405.26 1418.11 & 1555.72 1567.17
19-Jun-20  1728.55 1734.75, 1392.17 1401.16 & 1541.18 1545.49
18-Jun-20  1732.65 1719.50, 1384.73 1383.51 & 1539.29 1532.93
17-Jun-20  1717.30 1724.35, 1368.69 1375.17 & 1527.88 1537.26

 

Access Latest Goldnomics Podcast (Part II) Here

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ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Silver and Platinum also see futures much higher than spot as the chaos in the precious metals arena escalates

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Chaos in gold markets ripples to other precious metals

 Section: 

“Chaos” here seems to mean the conversion of trading paper to trading real metal.

* * *

By Justina Vasquez
Bloomberg News
Friday, July 3, 2020

The chaos that engulfed the gold market in March as the global pandemic choked off physical trading routes is rippling through other precious metals, resulting in price dislocations and a surge in exchange inventories for silver and platinum.

The gold market was thrown into turmoil in March as lockdowns grounded planes and closed refineries, leading traders to worry they wouldn’t be able to get gold to New York in time to deliver against futures contracts. That caused futures, which typically trade close to the London spot price, to soar to a premium, inflicting losses on banks that struggled to close arbitrage bets and spurring them to shift some positions out of New York futures.

… 

There are signs that the dynamic isn’t limited to gold. Silver and platinum futures have traded at elevated levels relative to spot metals since early April. And as in the case of gold, the premiums are spurring big increases in on-exchange inventories in New York.

On Monday first-notice data for the July silver contract on the Comex in New York showed the largest single day of deliveries in almost 25 years. Deliveries for platinum on the New York Mercantile Exchange were more than five times the next largest month this year.

Those deliveries serve as a way for banks to reduce their exposure to price dislocations and limit risk, said David Holmes, a senior vice president at Heraeus Metals New York, a precious metals refiner. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-02/spread-blowout-that-j…

end

Interviews with GATA’s Bill Murphy, bullion dealer Andy Schectman, and market analyst Michael Oliver

 Section: 

11:15a ET Sunday, July 5, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Two interviews of interest today.

At Arcadia Economics, Chris Marcus talks about the prospects for the monetary metals with GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and Andy Schectman of the Miles Franklin bullion shop. The interview is 33 minutes long and can be heard at You Tube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQuVaeqQtU4

And Eric King of King World News interviews market analyst Michael Oliver, who explains why he thinks the rise in the gold price is about to accelerate. The interview is 18 minutes long and can be heard at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/michael-oliver-7-4-2020/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Ronan Manly explains that 3 months ago, gold supplies were not healthy as we have had a huge 700 tonnes of gold enter the registered category of the gold comex account

(Ronan Manly/GATA)

Ronan Manly: Comex gold supplies weren’t ‘healthy’ as claimed

 Section: 

10:50a ET Monday, July 6, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Three months ago amid chaos in the gold market, Bullion Star researcher Ronan Manly recalls today, the London Bullion Market Association and CME Group, operator of the New York Commodities Exchange, declared that gold supplies in New York were “healthy.”

They weren’t.

Since then, Manly writes, the LBMA and CME Group have had to get more than 700 tonnes of gold into Comex vaults as the exchange suddenly has been transformed from a derivatives market into a physical market and demand for real metal has exploded.

The moral of the story seems to be, once again, that nothing official about gold is to be trusted.

Manly’s analysis is headlined “Comex New York Vaults Add 730 Tonnes of Gold Since the End of March” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/comex-new-york-vaults-add-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Finally we are witnessing the rise in gold miners as spot price in USA dollars nears its 9 yr high.  In all other currencies, gold is at record levels

(

Gold miners glitter as spot price nears 9-year high

 Section: 

By Neil Hume
Financial Times, London
Monday, July 6, 2020

Gold miners’ share prices are soaring with the value of the precious metal, while increased dividends are helping push these stocks higher still.

The spot price of gold has risen 17 percent so far this year and is closing in on $1,800 an ounce for the first time in nine years. The commodity, commonly treated as a reliable store of value by investors, has benefited from nerves over the spread of Covid-19 and the outlook for global trade — and rock-bottom yields available on other haven assets.

… 

Gold stocks have done even better, however, up 23 percent this year as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners index. Standout performers include Canada’s Kinross Gold and Barrick Gold, and U.S.-based Newmont Corp., all up at least 40 percent so far in 2020.

The primary market is also vibrant. Recent share sales by South Africa’s Harmony Gold and Polymetal, a London-listed miner with assets in Russia and Kazakhstan, were completed in double-quick time, with the books covered in 20 minutes, according to bankers working on the deals. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/5352324a-ac7e-46ab-9e4c-22af174e804e

end

Canada and Australia regulators may stall on Chinese state gold miners from acquiring our valuable resources

Globe and Mail Toronto/GATA

Frenzy of deals by China’s state gold miners may stall on regulatory hurdles from Canada, Australia

 Section: 

By Jeff Lewis and Melanie Burton
The Globe and Mail, Toronto
Monday, July 6, 2020

Growing scrutiny by mineral-rich Australia and Canada may cut short a deal frenzy led by China’s state miners and limit Beijing’s role in gold-sector consolidation, bankers and analysts said.

Shandong Gold Mining Co. and Zijin Mining Group Co. Ltd. have driven a wave of acquisitions from the Canadian Arctic to South America to West Africa this year.

… 

Canada and Australia have recently tightened restrictions on investment by state-backed firms, fearing economic dislocation caused by the coronavirus pandemic will make it easier to buy strategic assets. No specific countries have been named under the revised guidelines.

“The concerns are almost entirely with China,” said Gordon Houlden, a former Canadian diplomat with extensive Chinese experience who heads the University of Alberta’s China Institute. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/industry-news/energy-and-resour…

END

BMG’s Nick Barisheff plans for gold business without Scotiabank

 Section: 

12:23p ET Monday, July 6, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Last week your secretary/treasurer interviewed Nick Barisheff, president and CEO of Canadian bullion fund manager BMG Group (https://bmg-group.com/), covering the company’s long relationship with bullion trader Scotiabank, which is leaving the metals business while negotiating misconduct settlements with U.S. law-enforcement agencies.

Barisheff, who often and heroically has warned investors to stick to allocated gold and avoid “paper gold” pushed by bullion banks, assured his customers that all their metal is safe, accounted for, and unencumbered at Scotiabank’s vault in Toronto as BMG Group arranges new vaulting and trading services.

Barisheff concurred with GATA’s view of gold market manipulation by governments and central banks and was confident that international developments will restore gold to its central place in the world financial system.

The interview is an hour long and can be viewed at You Tube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PoORGLdij5I&feature=youtu.be

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

Jim Bovard: Old Coins Taught Me To Never Trust The Government

Authored by Jim Bovard via The Libertarian Institute,

Old coins vaccinated me against trusting politicians long before I grew my first scruffy beard. I began collecting coins when I was eight years old in 1965, the year President Lyndon Johnson began eliminating all the silver in new dimes, quarters, and half dollars. LBJ swore that there would be no profit in “hoarding” earlier coins “for the value of their silver content.” Wrong, dude: silver coins are now worth roughly fifteen times their face value.

History had always enthralled me, and handling old coins was like shaking hands with the pioneers who built this country. I wondered if the double dented 1853 quarter I bought at a coin show was ever involved in Huckleberry Finn–type adventures when “two bits” could buy a zesty time. I had a battered copper two-cent piece from 1864, the same year that Union general Phil Sheridan burned down the Shenandoah Valley where I was raised. Some of the coins I collected might now be banned as hate symbols, such as Indian Head pennies and Buffalo nickels (with an Indian portrait engraved on the front).

In the era of this nation’s birth, currency was often recognized as a character issue—specifically, the contemptible character of politicians. Shortly before the 1787 Constitutional Convention, George Washington warned that unsecured paper money would “ruin commerce, oppress the honest, and open the door to every species of fraud and injustice.”

But as time passed, Americans forgot the peril of letting politicians ravage their currency. In 1933, the US had the largest gold reserves of any nation in the world. But fear of devaluation spurred a panic, which President Franklin Roosevelt invoked to justify seizing people’s gold to give himself “freedom of action” to lower the dollar’s value. FDR denounced anyone who refused to turn in their gold as a “hoarder” who faced ten years in prison and a $250,000 fine.

FDR’s prohibition effectively banished from circulation the most glorious coin design in American history—the twenty-dollar Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle gold piece. I was captivated by early American coin designs, especially those featuring idealized female images emblazoned with the word liberty. I was unaware that George Washington refused to allow his own image on the nation’s coins because it would be too “monarchical.” Until 1909, there was an unwritten law that no portrait appear on any American coin in circulation. That changed with the hundredth anniversary of the birth of Abraham Lincoln, whom the Republican Party found profitable to canonize on pennies.

By the mid-twentieth century, American coinage had degenerated into paeans to dead politicians. Portraits of Franklin Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, and Dwight Eisenhower were slapped onto coins almost as soon as their pulses stopped. This reflected a sea change in values as Americans were encouraged to expect more from their leaders than from their own freedom.

 

The Double Eagle, which was designed by sculptor Augustus St. Gaudens, is widely considered to be the most beautiful US coin ever minted.

Coin dealing helped me recognize early on that a government promise is not worth a plug nickel. From 1878 onwards, the US Mint printed silver certificates, a form of paper currency. My 1935 silver certificate stated: “This certifies that there is on deposit in the Treasury of the United States of America One Dollar in Silver Payable to the Bearer on Demand.” But in the 1960s, that became inconvenient so the government simply nullified the promise.

On August 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon announced that the US would cease paying gold to redeem the dollars held by foreign central banks. The dollar thus became a fiat currency—something which possessed value solely because politicians said so. Nixon assured Americans that his default would “help us snap out of the self-doubt, the self-disparagement that saps our energy and erodes our confidence in ourselves.” Regrettably, this particular treachery was not included on the list of indictable offenses that the House Judiciary Committee enacted a few years later.

After Nixon’s declaration of economic martial law, I lost my enthusiasm for squirreling away one memento from each mint and each year in the Whitman blue coin folders that permeated many 1960s childhoods. I shifted from collecting to investing, hoping that old coins would be a good defense against Nixon’s “New Economics.” Prices for pristine coin specimens were far higher and more volatile than the value of some of the barely legible slabs of metal I previously amassed. A single blemish could slash the value of a rare coin by 80 percent (same problem I had with some manuscripts I’ve submitted over the years).

Coin values were pump primed by the Federal Reserve’s deluge of paper dollars to create an artificial boom to boost Nixon’s reelection campaign and supplemented by wage and price controls that wreaked havoc. Inflation almost quadrupled between 1972 and 1974, and I soaked up the cynicism and outrage prevailing in coin investment and hard money newsletters. I poured most of the money from the jobs I did during high school into rare coins. Because rare coins were appreciating almost across the board, it was difficult not to be lucky in a rising market. The biggest peril was the endless scam artists seeking to fleece people with false promises of lofty gains or fraudulent grading of rare coins—a pox that continues to this day.

After graduating high school in 1974, I began working a construction job. When I got laid off, I saw it as a sign from God (or at least from the market) to buy gold. Investment newsletters and political debacles convinced me the dollar was heading for a crash. I sold most of my rare coins and plunked all my available cash into gold and also took out a consumer finance loan at 18 percent to purchase even more. That interest rate was the gauge of my blind confidence. Nixon’s resignation in August 1974 did wonders to redeem my gamble.

My coin and gold speculations helped pay for my brief stints in college, with some greenbacks left over to cover living expenses during my first literary strikeouts. I eventually shifted into journalism and migrated to the Washington area.

Two weeks after I moved into a shabby group house in the District of Columbia in 1983, I pawned the last gem of my coin collection—the 1885 five-dollar gold piece that my Irish American grandmother had given me fifteen years earlier. She was a dear sweet lady who would have appreciated that her gift helped cover the rent for a few more weeks until I finally consistently hit solid paydirt later that year. (Thanks, Reader’s Digest!)

Wheeling and dealing with coins inoculated me against Beltway-style agoraphobia—a pathological dread of any unregulated market. The market set the price for 1950 Jefferson nickels coined in Denver based on the relatively small mintage chased by growing legions of young collectors. Nixon boosted the price of milk after the dairy lobby pledged $2 million in illegal contributions. It was nuts to permit politicians to control prices when there was no way to control politicians. Having watched coin values whipsaw over the prior decade, I recognized that value was subjective. The test of a fair price is the voluntary consent of each party to the bargain, “the free will which constitutes fair exchanges,” as Senator John Taylor wrote in 1822. Seven years ago, President Barack Obama, talking about how the government was losing money minting the lowest denomination coin, declared, “The penny, I think, ends up being a good metaphor for some of the larger problems we got.” Actually, the collapse of our currency’s value is a curse, not a metaphor. The dollar has lost 85 percent of its purchasing power since Nixon closed the gold window.

For a century, American coinage and currency policies have veered between “government as a damn rascal” and “government as a village idiot.” I remain mystified how anyone continues trusting their rulers after the government formally repudiates its promises. But I still appreciate old coins with beautiful designs that incarnated the American creed that no man has a right to be enshrined above anyone else.

END

I doubt very much if traders will use this phony contract to deliver into London vaults.

(courtesy Gulf Times)

Gulf Times

New US gold futures contract will allow delivery in London 

July 03 2020 08:58 PM

CME Group Inc is expanding delivery of its new gold futures contract to London vaults, the latest response to an extreme dislocation between the two most important markets for the precious metal.

The gold market was upended in late March as lockdowns grounded planes and closed refineries, leading traders to worry they wouldn’t be able to get gold to New York in time to deliver against futures contracts. That caused futures, which typically trade in lockstep with the London spot price, to soar to a premium of as much as $70 an ounce.

CME, which owns Comex where the main gold futures contract is listed, said in March it would offer a new futures contract with expanded delivery options that included 400-ounce bars, which is the size that’s accepted in the larger spot market in London.

On Tuesday, it announced that traders will also be able to deliver gold in London vaults against the new contract, saying the move would “provide market participants greater opportunity to make and take delivery.”

However, the move falls short of what some market participants had been hoping. The main “GC” gold contract is still only deliverable in the US using 100- ounce bars or kilobars. The new contract, known as “enhanced gold” or “4GC,” has hardly traded in its first three months, and both traders and the exchange acknowledge it will take time to build up critical mass.

Meanwhile, the GC contract continues to trade at a usually large premium to the spot price, of over $10 an ounce. The dislocation has inflicted painful losses on banks, which typically sell futures in New York as a hedge for their positions in the London market. HSBC Holdings Plc, for example, suffered mark-to-market losses of close to $200mn in one day in March, according to a regulatory filing.

If it’s adopted by the largest participants in the London market, CME’s move could have wider implications: It could help shed new light on the gold holdings in the city. Exchange rules require vaults to report daily inventory levels even when metal isn’t marked for delivery.

“When London vault applications are submitted and approved, they will follow the same guidelines as those of all exchange-approved facilities for metals,” a CME spokesperson said in emailed response to Bloomberg questions.

“Additional inventory will depend on the vaults that are approved and onboarded by the exchange.”

The changes are set to take effect mid-July and will apply to contracts deliverable from September onward. Exchange rules stipulate that any approved gold-storage facilities must report on a daily basis the amount of gold that is acceptable for delivery against futures contracts, whether the metal is marked for delivery or not. The same rules will apply to storage facilities in London, potentially bringing more transparency if vaults apply to hold inventory backing the contract.

-END-

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0224/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0182   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 180.07 POINTS OR 5.21%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 966.04 POINTS OR 3.81%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 407.96 POINTS OR 1.83%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 96.77/Euro RISES TO 1.1314

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.52/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 40.67 and Brent: 43.19

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE YES/OFF- SHORE: YES

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.44%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.22% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.43%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.22: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.14

3k Gold at $1779.50 silver at: 18.20   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 57/100 in roubles/dollar) 72.03

3m oil into the 40 dollar handle for WTI and 42 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.52 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9407 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0645 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.44%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.69% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.45%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.8645..

S&P Futures Surge As Chinese Stocks Explode Higher

After two consecutive weeks of cautious Sunday sessions entering the new week, overnight futures blasted out from the gate, surging more than 1%, sparked by fresh animal spirits out of China, after the country’s state media stoked bullish enthusiasm. S&P futures were up 35 points, rising to 3,165 and finally breaking above the 3,150 zone that has proven to be stern resistance over the past month. The dollar index fell for a fifth day and Treasuries dipped even as surging coronavirus cases delayed business re-openings across the United States, while precious metals and oil rose.

 

MSCI’s All-Country World Index rose 0.7% to its highest since June 6 after the start of European trading, with investors putting their faith in an economic recovery powered by historic government stimulus.

European stocks also jumped, with the STOXX 600 index rising 1.64%. Banks and autos lead gains in early European trading, with the sectors up 4.5% and 3.5% respectively, as both industry groups trade at the highest level since June 10. The gains come amid an overall bullish market Monday with global stocks higher, led by gains in China after the country’s influential state media stoked enthusiasm in the market. Stocks exposed to China, like carmakers, industrials, energy firms and luxury goods makers rose strongly, while banks also rallied. U.K. homebuilders rallied after a report that the government is considering a temporary increase in the threshold at which buyers pay stamp duty.

In Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 1.6% to its highest since February, with the bullish sentiment spilling into other markets. China’s Shanghai Composite surged 5.7% on top of a 7% gain last week to the highest level in five years. Even Japan’s Nikkei, which has lagged with a soft domestic economy, managed a rise of 1.8%.

 

A front-page editorial in China’s Securities Times on Monday said that fostering a “healthy” bull market after the pandemic is now more important to the economy than ever, as there now appears to be a full-blown race between the US and China who has a bigger stock bubble.

Similar to the US daytrading euphoria, Chinese social media has exploded with searches for the term “open a stock account,” with bullish sentiment also lifting the yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 5.7%, the biggest advance since 2015.

 

In Hong Kong, Jefferies chief global equity strategist Sean Darby said the positive sentiment towards Asian markets was the result of better than expected regional economic data and elevated liquidity levels.  “All of the global monetary policy indicators are flashing green right now. It is very loose and that should mean markets which have underperformed should do well,” Darby told Reuters. “The dollar has also been weaker over the past five days so emerging markets, led by China, normally do well on that back of that.”

Among the reasons investors cited for the buying was improving economic data – UBS noted Citi’s Economic Surprise Index for the U.S. has risen to its highest level on record. The index measures how well economic data releases are faring relative to consensus forecasts.

“We advise against regarding uncertainty as a reason for exiting markets. Instead, we see ways for investors to cope with uncertainty – including averaging into markets – or even take advantage of volatility,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management.

Ironically, the surge comes just hours after JPMorgan said the risk-reward in 2H Is ‘Unattractive’ (which in turn comes just two weeks after the bank upgraded US stocks to Overweight), and after Goldman Sachs cut estimates for U.S. growth this quarter and said consumer spending appears likely to stall this month and next. Still, economists led by Jan Hatzius said other economies have proved it’s possible to resume activity and changes in behavior such as wearing masks will help too.

“The willingness of investors to look through the current disruption to an anticipated recovery this quarter is imperiled by still rising virus infection rates,” said Michael McCarthy, a markets strategist at CMC Markets Plc in Sydney.

Meanwhile, confirming that away from markets the reality is getting more concerning by the day, two U.S. aircraft carriers conducted exercises in the disputed South China Sea on Saturday, the U.S. Navy said, as China also carried out military drills that have been criticised by the Pentagon and neighbouring states.

The risks, combined with unceasing stimulus from central banks, have kept sovereign bonds supported in the face of better economic data. While U.S. 10-year yields edged up to 0.7% on Monday, well off the June top of 0.959%. Germany’s benchmark 10-year Bund yield edged up, pulling further away from recent five-week lows in the face of rallying equity markets.

Analysts at Citi estimate global central banks are likely to buy $6 trillion of financial assets over the next 12 months, more than twice the previous peak.

In FX, major currencies were largely rangebound with the dollar index down 0.3% at 96.894, having spent an entire month in a snug band of 95.714 to 97.808. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell a fifth day after a slowdown in the U.S. infection rate and a call by Chinese state media to support a bull market spurred risk appetite. The dollar was a shade firmer on the yen at 107.57 on Monday, while the euro rose above the $1.13 mark. The Norwegian krone and Swedish krona led advances against the greenback among G-10 currencies. The rise in Brent crude underpinned the krone.

The yuan led commodity currencies higher against the dollar on Monday as investors lapped up risky assets on growing expectations of a strong Chinese economic rebound and the United States continued to report a surge in coronavirus infections. “The rally in mainland China equities has been the big catalyst,” said Stephen Gallo, European head of FX strategy at BMO Financial Group. “The only caveat is that China’s economy not driven purely by free-market forces. But if regulators in China are engineering a stronger equity market, it can still feed through to the rest of the world.”

 

“Risk appetite is higher as reflected in Asian stock markets and the Australian dollar, and the U.S. dollar is down because of that,” said Janu Chan, senior economist at St. George Bank in Sydney. “A global economic recovery, though uneven, is expected to point to a weaker USD over the medium term.”

In commodity markets, oil prices were mixed with Brent crude futures up 1.87% at $43.58 a barrel, while U.S. crude gained 0.84% to $40.99 amid worries the surge in U.S. coronavirus cases would curb fuel demand. Gold traded at $1,776.21 per ounce, just off last week’s peak of $1,788.96. The precious metal continues to benefit from super-low interest rates across the globe as negative real yields for many bonds make the non-interest paying metal more attractive.  Copper is on the cusp of erasing this year’s losses after virus-related disruptions tightened supplies.

Expected data include PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. Immunomedics reports earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 1% to 3,159.50
  • MXAP up 1.6% to 164.57
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.6% to 371.12
  • German 10Y yield unchanged at -0.432%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.1285
  • Brent Futures up 1.8% to $43.57/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 4.3 bps to 1.127%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 0.443%
  • MXAPJ up 1.7% to 542.15
  • Nikkei up 1.8% to 22,714.44
  • Topix up 1.6% to 1,577.15
  • Hang Seng Index up 3.8% to 26,339.16
  • Shanghai Composite up 5.7% to 3,332.88
  • Sensex up 1.5% to 36,565.50
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 6,014.61
  • Kospi up 1.7% to 2,187.93
  • Brent futures up 1.5% to $43.46/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,777.41
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 96.93

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The dramatic moves in Chinese stocks over the past week are inviting comparisons with a bubble that burst spectacularly five years ago.
  • U.S. virus cases increased by 1.2%, less than the seven-day average of 1.8%. A former Food and Drug Administration head said the U.S. needs a better pandemic strategy and should start by stockpiling therapeutic antibodies before authorizing their use.
  • Chinese companies last month shelved the biggest amount of domestic bond sales in almost three years, after a sell-off in government debt pushed up corporate borrowing costs.

Asian equity markets and US equity futures began the week mostly firmer as trade picked up from the holiday lull in which the broad heightened risk appetite consigned the increasing COVID-19 infection rates to the backseat. ASX 200 (-0.7%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.8%) were mixed as the Australian benchmark lagged due to weakness in industrials and the commodity related sectors and with sentiment also subdued by rising infections in the country’s 2nd largest city of Melbourne which prompted the Victoria state government to close the border with New South Wales from tomorrow, while Tokyo stocks coat-tailed on the favourable currency flows and after the decisive victory by Tokyo Governor Koike at the gubernatorial election on Sunday. Hang Seng (+3.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (+5.7%) surged despite the lack of solid fundamental catalysts and amid the ongoing global reproach towards China with Canada suspending its extradition treaty with Hong Kong in the wake of the security law and with the UK set to end the use of Huawei technology in the 5G networks as early as this year due to security issues, while it was separately reported that China is considering retaliatory measures against Britain and Australia in the form of increased tariffs. Nonetheless, this failed to impede the rally in Chinese stocks and the mainland bourse extended to its highest level seen since the beginning of 2018 with financials leading the ascent amid increased IPO activity and after the latest PBoC survey showed the loan demand index surged to 75.8 in Q2 vs. Prev. 66.0 in Q1. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower amid similar weakness in T-notes as havens were shunned by the heightened risk appetite, which saw prices retreat further away from resistance near 152.00, but with downside also stemmed by the BoJ’s presence in the market whereby it upped purchases of 5yr-10yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • China Stokes a Stock-Market Mania, Risking Repeat of 2015 Bubble
  • Hong Kong Stocks Enter Bull Market After $1.1 Trillion Rebound
  • Chipmaker SMIC Eyes China’s Biggest Share Sale in a Decade
  • World’s Largest Listing of 2020 Comes From China: ECM Watch
  • Tokyo Finds 102 Virus Cases as It Tries to Avoid Mass Curbs

European stocks kick the week off on a firm footing [Euro Stoxx 50 +1.9%] albeit off highs, but nonetheless supported by the stellar Chinese performance which saw the Shanghai Comp rally over 5% amid a number of factors including commentary from Securities Times which suggested that fostering a “healthy” bull market is now more important to the economy than ever.  The article said investors could look forward “to the wealth effect of the capital markets”. This coupled with Friday’s announcement of easing margin financing rules stoked gains in the Mainland whilst Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended the day in bull market territory – some 21% off March lows. Gains in Europe are broad-based with the SMI (+0.8%) somewhat lagging amid its heavy exposure to the health sector – which lags amid inflows into cyclicals. Sectors are all in positive territory with cyclicals outpacing defensives on the constructive risk tone, whilst the detailed breakdown paints a similar picture; Travel & Leisure names piggyback on the risk appetite and reside among the winners.  In terms of individual movers, UK housing names were bolstered at the open on the back of reports the Treasury is said to plan to increase the property tax threshold to as high as GBP 500,000. As such, Persimmon (+5.7%), Barrat Development (+6.7%) and Taylor Wimpey (+5.0%) hold their positions as the top Stoxx 600 gainers. GSK (+1.3%) and Sanofi (+0.8%) performs better than the overall Health sector amid reports the Cos are close to agreeing a GBP 500mln deal to supply the UK government with 60mln doses of its COVID-19 vaccine, should it work in human trials due to begin in September. Commerzbank (+6.0%) derived support from reports Co. is said to be mulling cuts to its foreign business as part of its revised strategy – which would include cutting 450/1000 branches, 10k job cuts in total and cuts to the international businesses. Finally, no reprieve for Wirecard (-17%) as FT reported the Co’s European and American core businesses have reportedly been lossmaking for years, with profits appearing to have largely existed on paper, according to the KPMG confidential appendix of the special audit.

Top European News

  • German Factory Orders Rise Less Than Forecast After Lockdown
  • Banks Are Ditching London Offices and Not Just Because of Covid
  • Rolls-Royce Seeks Pension Halt to Save Cash in Virus Crunch
  • Cerberus Urges Orderly Process After Commerzbank CEO Ouster

In FX, broad USD weakness after the long US holiday weekend amidst a pronounced upturn in risk sentiment on the back of bullish Chinese stock market remarks in the Securities Journal overnight that has boosted the YUAN from a fractionally softer PBoC midpoint fix through a key Fib (7.0441) to test 7.0300 in both onshore and offshore terms. The DXY has lost grip of the 97.000 handle in response and is hovering just above a 96.818 low awaiting final Markit services and composite PMIs, the non-manufacturing ISM and employment trends.

  • NOK/EUR/AUD – The major beneficiaries of heightened risk appetite, also manifest in firm crude prices, and general Greenback weakness, as Eur/Nok nudges down towards 10.6000 and Eur/Usd extends above several chart resistance levels, like the 100 and 200 HMAs plus a Fib retracement (1.1241, 1.1243 and 1.1157 respectively) to retest 1.1300. Meanwhile, the Aussie has revisited near 1 month peaks around 0.6980 in the run up to the RBA policy meeting on Tuesday and potential reaction to the renewed COVID-19 outbreak in the state of Victoria.
  • NZD/CHF – Both firmer vs their US counterpart as the Kiwi holds near 0.6550 and Franc close to the upper end of a 0.9462-14 range in advance of NZIER’s Q2 survey, but with Eur/Chf acknowledging latest Swiss bank sight deposit rises more than Fitch’s AAA ratings affirmation between 1.0650-25 parameters.
  • CAD/GBP/JPY – All narrowly mixed, as the Loonie meanders from 1.3520-65 against the backdrop of buoyant oil benchmarks and eyeing the looming BoC outlook survey for some independent direction, while Cable has ventured beyond 1.2500, but unsustainably despite a significant rebound in the UK construction PMI. Elsewhere, the Yen is marginally lagging on less safe-haven demand, albeit vying with the Dollar on risk factors, with the headline pair in a relatively tight 107.77-49 band and hardly reacting to BoJ sources suggesting that the Bank will stick to view for as gradual economic recovery in the latter part of 2020.
  • EM – The Lira remains tethered to 6.8500 even though the Turkish Government has taken more measures to restrict negative positioning in stocks from foreign entities via a short-selling for 6 banks for up to 3 months.

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures extended on APAC gains in early hours as the contracts coat-tail on the overall risk appetite across the market as rising COVID-19 cases across the globe are somewhat side-lined, albeit prices have since waned off highs. The fundamental landscape is little changed but from the supply slide of the equation, OPEC’s JMMC is set to meet mid-July ahead of the planned tapering of cuts in August – with the Committee set to advise OPEC as opposed to setting policy. On that front, Saudi Aramco upped the price for its flagship Arab Light grade to Asia by USD 1/bbl from July – alluding to firmer demand in the region. Looking ahead, the week will see the release of the EIA STEO and IEA Monthly Oil Market report ahead of OPEC’s take next week. WTI and Brent futures reside under USD 41/bbl (vs. low 40.20/bbl) and below USD 43.50/bbl (vs. low 42.74/bbl) respectively. Elsewhere, spot gold remains underpinned on Dollar-dynamics around the USD 1775/oz mark ahead of its recent almost-8yr peak at around 1789/oz. Copper prices receive a double boost from the softer Buck coupled with the surge in Chinese stock markets – with the red metal reclaiming USD 2.75/lb to the upside and nursing steep losses posted at the latter end of last week.

  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 47, prior 46.7; Markit US Composite PMI, prior 46.8
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, est. 50, prior 45.4

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As you may have seen late last week, Torsten Slok is leaving DB to join a good client of the bank. We wish him well in the future and will try to persuade him to vote for DB Research in all the analyst surveys now. I will be taking over responsibilities for sending out DB charts of the day and will also be sending out repackaged chart books soon. If you’ve previously got Torsten’s emails then you’ll be continuing to get them from me. If you didn’t get anything from Torsten and want to be included then please send me an email. I sent my first missive out to 30,000 new people on Friday and it ended up taking me five hours and ended up with my mail account suspended with a third left unsent. So if I don’t reply to anyone today you’ll know why. Off to speak to IT first thing this morning. We think we have a solution. Thankfully the EMR distribution list is handled externally so I don’t have to worry about that.

As the US comes back from the long weekend it’s difficult to make too much of the weekend’s covid-19 new cases and fatality data. The weekend normally sees some under reporting but on a holiday weekend that could be magnified. However in my opinion the trend remains the same. A continued strong rise in new cases but fatalities that aren’t going up anywhere near as much as they did in the first wave even with the appropriate lag. Overall, cases in the US surged by an average of +1.7% over the weekend versus an average of +1.9% in the five days prior while fatalities on average rose by +0.2% as against an average of +0.6% in the five days prior. At a state level, California, Florida and Arizona saw cases rise +2.1%, +5.3% and +3.7% yesterday respectively. In the short-term this surge in cases isn’t good news for the US economy’s reopening pace. However if we continue to see fatalities much lower in this second wave then it should give us more medium-term confidence that we are getting better at treating the virus or protecting the most vulnerable. Let’s see where the data is by mid-week to further reflect on whether we’re correct or not. Our H2 2020 credit outlook (link here) partly rests on this view so we’ll be watching carefully.

In terms of markets this morning we’ve seen big gains for the Shanghai Comp (+4.24%) and Hang Seng (+3.45%). Those moves are being attributed to positive commentary on the stock market from Chinese state media, namely a front-page editorial in the Securities Times which suggested that a “healthy” bull market after the pandemic is now more important to the economy than ever. The Nikkei (+1.67%) and Kospi (+1.72%) are also up however gains have been more modest while the ASX is flat. Yields on 10y USTS are up +2.6bps while futures on the S&P 500 are also up +1.14%.

In other news, ECB President Lagarde said over the weekend that the euro zone faces about two years of disinflation, followed by inflation as the coronavirus crisis accelerates the transformation of the economy towards greater digitization and automation. She added that the ECB will need to keep its monetary policy exceptionally loose, and financial instruments will need to be developed that allow the economic transformation to be funded. Meanwhile, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the country’s economy is picking up faster than expected and that forecasts from the IMF may be too gloomy.

Moving on. As the US comes back after the Independence Day holiday, one of the main data releases this week will be the ISM non-manufacturing index today, along with the services and composite PMIs. The ISM manufacturing release already surprised to the upside at 52.6, its highest since April 2019 and above the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction. So the question will be whether this momentum has been seen elsewhere in the economy. Otherwise in the US, investors will also be attuned to the weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday. These have been worse-than-expected for 3 consecutive weeks now, and are still running at more than double their pre-Covid record, raising concerns that the pace of improvement in the labour market is slower than had originally been hoped for. This theme may continue with the second virus wave sweeping through the US.

In terms of data elsewhere, the releases are somewhat more backward-looking in Europe now that the PMI releases are out. Today will see the release of Euro Area retail sales for May, while Germany, France and Italy will all be releasing their industrial production data for May through the week. Elsewhere, China will be releasing CPI and PPI data for June on Thursday.

Here in the UK, Chancellor Sunak will be delivering a statement in the House of Commons on Wednesday. It might be a bit early to get full clues as to how policy will change post crisis but markets will look for evidence as to how much fiscal policy will be unleashed going forward. The worry for some so far is that the words are big but the numbers relatively small. So one to watch. Against this backdrop, the UK and the EU will continue their discussions on their future relationship in London this week. That comes after last week’s negotiations, where chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier said that “serious divergences remain”, and on the UK side chief negotiator David Frost said that the talks had “underlined the significant differences that still remain between us on a number of important issues.”

Recapping last week now and also Friday’s news. It was a fairly quiet end to the week for markets with the US out on holiday. However, European equities pared back their gains from earlier in the week to close the 5 days with a +1.98% advance (-0.78% Friday). This was in spite of some fairly positive services and composite PMI data from Europe, with the numbers generally revised up relative to the flash readings, a picture consistent with the fact that the extra data covered a longer period of reopening. In terms of the specific numbers, the composite PMI for the Euro Area was revised up to 48.5 (vs. flash 47.5), while France at 51.7 and Germany at 47.0 also saw upward revisions relative to the flash print. In all these cases, as well as in Spain and Italy, the composite PMIs were at their strongest level since February, though it’s worth noting that only France had a reading above the 50-mark separating expansion from contraction.

Although Europe fell back somewhat, the broader picture of the week was still one of a rotation out of safe havens into risk assets. By the end of the week, the S&P 500 was up +4.02% albeit with futures down just under 0.5% on Friday as the US was closed. Meanwhile core government bonds lost ground, with yields on 10yr Treasuries and bunds up +2.8bps and +4.9bps respectively, as the US Dollar index (-0.27%) and the Japanese Yen (-0.27% vs USD) both lost ground through the week. Peripheral bonds advanced however, with the spread of both 10yr Italian (-8.7bps) and Spanish (-6.1bps) debt over bunds tightening.

One news report that might be worth noting from Friday was a Bloomberg article saying that there was a rift on the Governing Council over the extent to which the ECB’s asset purchases should deviate from the capital key – which is based on countries’ GDP and population size. The deviation from the capital key in the ECB’s Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) has allowed them to purchase larger amounts of Italian debt than the capital key would suggest, but the article cited officials who said that views differed among the members on this issue. One to watch moving forward.

And finally, we also got some political news out of France, as President Macron named Jean Castex as the new Prime Minister. French presidents have previously ditched their PMs mid-term, so this wasn’t an exceptional move, and marks an attempt at revitalising his presidency following some poor municipal election results in June. Castex was previously in charge of coordinating the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris and managed the government’s lockdown exit strategy, which has been perceived as a success.

 

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 180.07 POINTS OR 5.21%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 966.04 POINTS OR 3.81%   /The Nikkei closed UP 407.96 POINTS OR 1.83%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .61%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0224 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0224 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0182 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED //CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC// : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

HONG KONG

Already Nathan Law has escaped Hong Kong, the first of many after the New Security Law was passed

(zerohedge_

Young Democracy Activist Flees Hong Kong As New Security Law Casts Shadow On ‘Foreign Ties’

Hong Kong pro-democracy, anti-Beijing activists are on edge since this week’s formal passage of the sweeping national security law in response to the mass protests and unrest which gripped the city for much of last year.

As we and many others detailed of the law which went into effect Wednesday, it harshly cracks down on dissent with possible maximum life jail sentences for some crimes, largely dependent on the ambiguous and highly open to interpretation (with no independent review) question of what constitutes ‘foreign interference’ or sponsorship of a ‘terror’ organization.

Already some among protest leaders are fleeing in fear for how the law might apply retroactively to their past activities, as well as current activism. For example it’s already spooked a prominent young pro-independence leader named Nathan Law.

 

Nathan Law in 2019 seen advocating for the US Congress’ Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. Wiki Commons image.

“He announced he had left two days after China brought in its new security law,” BBC reports. “Activists say it erodes freedoms but Beijing has dismissed the criticism.”

Law issued a short message announcing his departure: “I have already left Hong Kong and continue the advocacy work on the international level,” he said in English, though without specifying which country he would settle in.

“Based on risk assessment, I shall not reveal too much about my personal whereabouts and situation now,” Law’s message added. After previously spending time in prison for leading protests in 2014, he’s not taking any chances apparently, also given his public links to Washington.

Both he and HK’s other most visible independence movement activist, Joshua Wong, have been seen as close to State Department and US embassy officials, even lately briefing Congressional leaders on the new security law:

Within moments of it being announced on Tuesday, Mr Law said he was stepping down from Demosito Party, which he co-founded with well-known activist Joshua Wong. At the time, he said the law marked the start of a “bloody cultural revolution”.

On Wednesday, Mr Law spoke via videolink to a US Congressional hearing on Hong Kong. He told American politicians he was worried about returning to the territory, for fear of being imprisoned by Beijing.

Pro-Beijing officials and media previously accused the pair of being stooges of the US and Britain, doing foreign bidding under the guise of local activism.

No doubt in the eyes of the mainland’s Communist Party, this might be enough to get him locked up on “foreign sponsorship” related to his protest activities.

 

Nathan Law. Image source: Demosisto.

It’s more than likely we’ll see other big activist names flee Hong Kong and the region in the coming days and weeks, also as it’s still a bit up in the air as to what the new law’s application will look like in practice.

Clearly pro-independence leaders are bracing for the worst.

END
HONG KONG:
First man charged under the new terrorism law in Hong Kong after the guy rammed police.
(zerohedge)

Hong Kong Man Charged With ‘Terrorism’ In First Ever Security Law Case After Ramming Police

Yesterday we noted that one of the Hong Kong pro-independence movement’s most visible young activists, Nathan Law, fled Hong Kong for an undisclosed outside country on fears of how the new national security law could be applied retroactively, especially given his and his close associate Joshua Wong’s public relationship with and backing by the US embassy and American Congressional leaders.

There is also the looming question of just what the law will look like applied in action. Recall that the law which went into effect Wednesday harshly cracks down on dissent and fomenting unrest with possible maximum life jail sentences for some crimes, largely dependent on the ambiguous and highly open to interpretation (with no independent review) question of what ultimately constitutes ‘foreign interference’ or sponsorship of a ‘terror’ organization.

It was perhaps wise that Nathan Law didn’t stick around to find out how stringently it will be applied given thaton Friday HK authorities made their first example, arresting a man for carrying an anti-Beijing sign after he was alleged to have intentionally rammed police with his motorcycle.

 

Protest slogans such as the popular “Liberate Hong Kong. Revolution of our times” are now banned by the National Security Law in Hong Kong. Getty Images

Reuters reports of the first ever instance of a protester being charged with terrorism under the fresh law:

A man carrying a “Liberate Hong Kong” sign as he drove a motorcycle into police at a protest against the territory’s Chinese rulers became on Friday the first person charged with inciting separatism and terrorism under a new security law.

It appears precisely this sign and slogan, which reports say is ubiquitous around Hong Kong streets, buildings and walls, which gave police the excuse and ability to bring harsher charges against the man, described as in his 20s, under the new security law.

The motorcycle ramming can now be effectively considered a political act of “terrorism” based on the security law.

Reuters continues:

Police say 23-year-old Tong Ying-kit rammed and injured some officers at an illegal protest on Wednesday. A video online showed a motorbike knocking over several officers on a narrow street before the driver falls over and is arrested.

Tong, who was hospitalised after the incident, was charged less than 24 hours after the city government said the slogan he was carrying – “Liberate Hong Kong, revolution of our times” – connotes separatism or subversion under the new law.

Ironically he was reported to be protesting the very law that he’s now being charged under.

 

Given even political slogans and signage now carry the possibility of arrest, or at least severely heightened charges in connection with other crimes, it’s more than likely we’ll see other big activist names flee Hong Kong and the region in the coming days and weeks. Clearly pro-independence leaders are bracing for the worst.

Reports say that Joshua Wong’s Demosisto, a pro-democracy group with deep ties to the US, UK, and other European countries, has already been disbanded – at least on a public level – over fears its members could face terrorism and subversion charges.

end

CHINA//Friday

China’s manipulated Caixin service PMI unexpectedly soars.  China is trying to put on a good front that the economy is back to normal.

(zerohedge)

China Caixin Service PMI Unexpectedly Soars To 10 Year High

Just days after reporting that its industrial profits soared in May, rising compared to a year earlier which was a clearly ridiculous inflection considering that the profit-leading PPI has continued to plunge, resulting in a huge divergence between the two series and confirming once again that China will manipulate any number just to “represent” its economy as having fully recovered from the covid pandemic…

… China’s campaign to really prove to the world that “all is well” continued overnight when the Caixin services PMI soared to 58.4 in June, the strongest reading since May 2010 and much higher than market expectations of a 53.2 print (from 55.0 in May), urgently telegraphing an accelerated recovery in service activity in June, at least according to surveys.

Virtually all sub-indexes also suggested stronger overall new businesses, as well as improvement in new export businesses. Now if only imports were also rebounding just as strongly to allow China to finally comply with its obligations under Phase One of the trade deal, which it clearly refuses to do.

Some more details from the report via Goldman:

  • The Caixin services PMI pointed to a substantial improvement in service activity in June. Surveyed companies cited further easing in policy restrictions related to the virus control and improved demand conditions as the main reasons behind the strong recovery. The labor market remained soft however.
  • The overall new business index rose to 57.3 from 55.8 in May, the strongest reading since August 2010. New export businesses improved significantly to 52.0, the first expansion (above 50 reading) since January this year. On the other hand, the labor market continued to be weak — the employment sub-index declined to 48.2 from 48.9, in comparison with the pre-coronavirus level of 50.1 in January / 50.9 in 2019 on average.
  • Price indicators suggest tailwinds to service providers’ profit margins. The output prices sub-index rose to 50.1 from 48.3, while the input prices sub-index fell to 49.5 from 49.9. Probably related to the surge in new businesses, the outstanding business index was modestly higher at 50.6, vs. 49.1 in May. Surveyed companies reported strengthened business confidence — the business expectation index went up to 60.1 (after seasonal adjustment), the highest since June 2017.

In summary, yet another made up print by Beijing which is eager to “prove” just how capable it has been in rebooting the Chinese economy ‘unlike Trump’, and even Goldman admits the numbers make no sense as “service activities stayed below trend in June according to our high-frequency trackers.”

end

 

Michael Every on China/USA relations plus other stuff /Friday

Michael Every..

Rabobank: If 500,000 Rich Hong Kongers Leave The City, The HKD Peg Would Surely Collapse

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Brawn on the Fourth of July

The US is on holiday today to celebrate Independence Day, which actually falls tomorrow. This 4 July it can do so with some big, brawny numbers to focus on. First of all, jobs. US payrolls yesterday smashed expectations (which consistently have proved not to mean anything in this crisis), rising 4.8 million. Put another steak on the BBQ! Unfortunately, weekly initial claims out the same day showed no sign of any improvement and new unemployment filings were once again 1.4 million. Let’s swap the steak for potato salad. Indeed, with re-openings on pause or being rolled back, and the cut-off point for June payrolls data sampling being around the middle of the month, the likelihood is that things are already stalling even though we are millions of jobs away from getting back to where we were on 4 July 2019.

Of course, the other big number is the virus. New cases in the US continue to surge, with 55,000 in a single day being the latest snapshot. As the Fed keeps saying, if that number does not come down, the other economic numbers are not going to hold up.

Not that this matters for financial markets in any way. They are guaranteed to be alright regardless. More virus equals more free money; less virus means more growth; and if it also means less free money it must therefore shortly after mean more free money. Otherwise markets will go down – and as markets cannot go down, appropriate measures will of course be taken. (The latest being the German Bundestag voting to support ECB QE to end-run the German constitutional court’s questioning of that policy’s validity.) Ray Dalio makes a similar point forcefully today, but isn’t saying anything this Daily(o) has not been saying for a long time. Indeed, I mention what is happening in the real world purely for those who are interested in current affairs rather than markets.

Where these two do intersect are a few key stress points which have the ability to make central banks look as impotent and irrelevant as they actually still are. (Have they sorted out inflation yet? How about climate change? Or inequality? Or curing the virus?)

Primary among these is still the US-China issue. The US Senate has just re-passed the latest Hong Kong bill and so President Trump has ten days to sign it or it becomes law anyway, unless he tries to veto it, risking a Congressional over-ride. Very soon, the clock starts ticking. As Bloomberg notes: The law gives banks a kind of year-long grace period to stop doing business with entities and individuals the State Department determines to be “primary offenders” when it comes to undermining Hong Kong’s autonomy. After that period, the Treasury Department can impose a variety of penalties on those institutions, including barring top executives from entering the US and restricting the ability to engage in US dollar-denominated transactions. The sanctions would apply to Chinese banks as well as Chinese subsidiaries of US banks…[and will] mostly affect the largest Chinese lenders that do business with the US.”

So no USD for the largest Chinese lenders. How do they help Chinese firms transfer USD to repay external debt? How do Chinese importers transfer funds to those all round the world who sell to them? Simple questions: no simple answers to how China can avoid such US financial brawn.

Naturally, we can expect ‘markets’ to shrug at locking-in a 12-month countdown to a USD “nuclear option” because a constant over the past few decades has been the ‘Hollywood ending’ – as typified by Tom Cruise, an A-list star back in 1989’s “Born on the Fourth of July”, and amazingly still one today. (He seems to have his own personal central bank.) Yet how is that working out as regards Brexit, which is now similarly time-delimited? “EU-UK trade talks break up early over ‘serious’ disagreements” says the pro-EU Guardian as “EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier complained of lack of respect and engagement by UK”. The anti-EU Daily Express says “Boris Johnson blames EU for missing crucial deadline -as trade talks collapse” adding BoJo “has furiously hit back the at EU, blaming Brussels for missing a key deadline in post-Brexit trade talks as the two sides continue to trade vicious blows amid increasing fears of a no deal conclusion.” Tick-Tock.

But back to areas where central banks can’t help. Yesterday the Daily presented the simple maths that if 500,000 Hong Kongers were to leave the city and take USD1m equivalent with them then ceteris paribus, the HKD peg would surely have to go as all FX reserves evaporated. In recent weeks we have seen the HK authorities publicly state they will not impose capital controls – which as a key global financial centre should always be unthinkable. Yesterday, after a Chinese official response strongly opposing the UK government making clear it will offer 2.9m Hong Kongers a path to citizenship, the HK authorities had to publicly disavow rumours of a travel ban on its citizens. Yes, that’s where we stand. What does monetary policy have to offer here?

One other one: Jeffrey Epstein confidante (and alleged co-offender) Ghislaine Maxwell has just been arrested by the FBI after mysteriously not being findable despite living in a tiny New Hampshire hamlet of just 1,600 people all along. The book has been thrown at her already, and questions are being asked about how many influential names are going to be named as she goes down. As social media is full of pictures of Presidents Trump and Clinton, and Prince Andrew all openly socialising with Maxwell, some are also remarking: “Ghislaine Maxwell committed suicide tomorrow” or that perhaps it will be a sudden case of Covid-19 instead.

Happy 4 July, America, and British pub-goers!

end
CHINA/USA/CORN/SOYBEANS 
They book their first order for uSA corn and soybeans but remain far from what they signed for in phase one of the trade deal
(zerohedge)

China Buys US Corn, Soybean; Trade Deal Commitments Far From Satisfied 

Around the same time President Trump and National Economic Council director Larry Kudlow were pumping jobs, stocks, and the V-shaped recovery on national television on Thursday morning – Reuters quoted a U.S. Agriculture Department (USDA) report that said China booked its first U.S. sales of corn and soybean since it asked suppliers (nine days ago) to guarantee shipments were not contaminated with COVID-19. 

Readers may recall, from day one of the trade deal being signed – we outlined how the number of proposed agricultural goods exported to China under the agreement was unrealistic.

China’s purchases of US farm goods since the trade deal was signed in mid-January has been underwhelming. With today’s purchases, we’re surprised the president or Kudlow didn’t pump the numbers, rather Kudlow said: “We are very unhappy with China.”

Reuters, quoting the USDA report, said China’s “private exporters reported the sale of 202,000 tonnes of corn and 126,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery during the 2020/21 marketing year that begins on Sept. 1.”

For more color on China not upholding trade commitments under the deal – we turn to Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). Their trade deal tracker (latest data from April), shows China’s purchases under the trade agreement has been significantly below agreed-upon levels.

Even before the trade deal was signed – we outlined in December, vessel tracking data didn’t support China was purchasing farm goods from the U.S. – instead, they abandoned North American markets for Latin American ones.

In June, we noted again; there was no way in hell that China was buying enough agricultural goods from the U.S. to satisfy commitments. Just look at the vessel tracking map below (from early June) – a massive traffic jam of ships carrying soybeans from Latin America to Asia was seen – and just a few vessels carrying beans in North America.

What’s evident is that China has predictably fallen way short of its commitments of the trade deal as it now blames virus pandemic for reduced purchases.

The Trump administration should come clean and just admit the trade deal is a dud.

END
CHINA/USA
USA showing its muscle in the South China Sea and Navarro ready to slam Beijing for spreading the virus.
(zerohedge)

2 Aircraft Carriers Lead ‘Show Of Strength’ In South China Sea As Navarro Slams Beijing For “Spreading The Virus”

On the eve of Independence Day, the White House is once again stoking tensions with Beijing, as President Trump continues to embrace aggressive rhetoric toward China as a key campaign issue that (he hopes) will help bring out more Trump voters worried about Biden and/or members of his family’s dubious business ties to China and Ukraine.

Media reports claim that the US is sending not one but two aircraft carriers into the South China Sea, one of the hottest flashpoints on earth right now (at least, one of the hottest flash points that’s not situated along India’s land-border), as the US Navy holds military exercises in the area, a major middle finger to Beijing and the PLA-Navy.

The USS Ronald Reagan and USS Nimitz are scheduled to hold some of the Navy’s largest exercises in recent years in the area, which is frequently beset upon by American destroyers sailing within 12 miles of certain islands developed by China that are the subject of competing international claims.

The exercise will involve the two carriers as well as 4 other warships along with round-the-clock fights and missions.

The news comes as Peter Navarro, who has seemingly been relegated back to a supply closet office in the West Wing now that the trade deal is dead in the water, has apparently been let out of his cage long enough to rant about Beijing and the CCP leadership’s unforgivable failure to contain the coronavirus.

For a while there, it seemed like China would buy up ever-more American agricultural products for the simple reason that they were cheap and China needed the supplies.

But now that China is walking away with its money, we wouldn’t be too surprised to hear Navarro once again declare the trade deal to be “over” (like he did the other week before Beijing and his colleagues leaned on him to recant). Though he didn’t go quite to that extreme here, at this point, his rhetoric is probably the best barometer, and if he starts talking about the deal being “over” again, it might be time to start listening.

END

CHINA

China’s new car sales crash 37% in the 4th week of June

(zerohedge)

China New Car Sales Crash 37% In 4th Week Of June

June does not appear to be shaping up to be the month where Chinese auto sales “bounce back”. Dealing with recessionary headwinds pre-Covid, the world’s largest auto market has been decimated by the effect of the pandemic and doesn’t look to be leading the world to any type of meaningful recovery any time soon.

Overnight the China Passenger Car Association said that retail car sales were down 37% YOY for the 4th week of June.

Average daily sales were down to 51,627 during June 22-27. This is a 6% sequential fall from the same week in May, indicating little respite or improvement from the pressure of the coronavirus pandemic on the industry. PCA blamed “seasonal factors” for the drop, which is a funny way to say “Chinese-borne virus ravaging the entire planet”.

This also paints an ugly picture for June’s new car sales number, since we reported about 3 weeks ago that the first week in June was also off to an ugly start. In that article, we noted that retail car sales fell 10% year over year – but more importantly 20% from the same period in May – in the first week of June.

June’s interim data comes after what looked like the beginning of a rebound for the industry in May, to the extent that we can trust the numbers coming out of Beijing. This news comes despite better than expected results in May, where sales showed a 12% increase year over year.

According to The Detroit Bureau, premium and luxury passenger car retail sales led the charge in May, rising 28% last month compared with year-ago results. Those vehicles accounted for 1.61 million of the month’s 2.14 million vehicles sold.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, or CAAM, had predicted an 11.7% jump for May, including commercial vehicle sales in its results. Predictions for June look ominous:the CPCA has said that June sales will decline in part because June 2019 was such a strong month for the industry.

Recall, we have recently noted that U.S. auto manufacturers are also teeing up sizeable incentives to get buyers back into showrooms. Europe is following suit, with Volkswagen starting a sales initiative to revive demand, including improved leasing and financing terms.

Outlook for the year in China remains less-than-optimistic. The CAAM predicts that sales will drop 15% to 25% for the year, depending on whether or not the country is able to further slow the spread of the virus.

June’s full retail vehicle sales data should be available in days.

end

CHINA/USA

The anti China meme is now in full force as the State dept is warning top USA firms to replace supply chains if they are doing any business in Xinjiang or with entities using Xinjiang labour

(zerohedge)

State Dept Warns Top US Firms To Replace Supply Chains Exposed To China’s Xinjiang

Now that the Senate has joined the House in its condemnation of China’s National Security Law, and on Thursday passed by unanimous consent a bipartisan bill to impose sanctions on Chinese officials who threaten Hong Kong’s limited autonomy, as well as the banks and firms that do business with them, we eagerly await when (and perhaps, if) Trump will sign the legislation into law (according to a WSJ report from Thursday, the White House hasn’t responded to a request for comment over whether the president will support the bill).

And since it is unlikely that Trump will object to the veto-proof law – after all, the last thing he wants is to be seen as easy on China ahead of the election – on Friday, the State Department warned top American companies including Walmart, Apple and Amazon over risks faced from maintaining supply chains associated with human rights abuses in China’s western Xinjiang region, according to a letter seen by Reuters on Thursday.

“It is critical that U.S. companies and individuals be aware of the large-scale human rights abuses perpetrated by the PRC government in Xinjiang,” Keith Krach, Undersecretary of State for economic growth, energy and the environment wrote on July 1 according to Reuters. “Businesses should evaluate their exposure to the risks that result from partnering with, investing in, and otherwise providing support to companies that operate in or are linked to Xinjiang,” he said in the letter which was sent to trade groups.

The warning comes at a time when the United States has been ratcheting up pressure on China over that country’s treatment of Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang and Beijing’s new national security law for Hong Kong. It also follows a U.S. government advisory sent out on Wednesday which said that companies doing business in Xinjiang or with entities using Xinjiang labor could be exposed to “reputational, economic, and legal risks”.

Naturally, China was hardly impressed by the latest escalation, and when he was asked about the U.S. government’s warnings over supply chain risks linked to Xinjiang, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said that allegations of forced laboer were fabrications.

“Some people in the U.S. keep on saying they care about ethnic minorities in Xinjiang while also taking all kinds of measures to oppress Xinjiang companies,” he said at a daily news conference in Beijing.

As Reuters further notes, in a call with reporters, Krach said the complex nature of supply chains was making companies vulnerable to potential risks and urged them to be more vigilant. He did not say how many U.S. companies might have been entangled in such supply chains.

The real question, of course, is not Xinjuang, but how far will the US push China, and how long before all China-based supply chains receive a similar warning, resulting in an unprecedented hit to global trade. In any event, the bottom line is clear: US corporations are now under the clock to shifting most if not all Chinese supply chains away from the country. Needless to say, the inflationary consequences of such a transition – which will take years to complete and billions of dollars to be optimized – can not be underscored enough. And since this is happening at a time of global demand-side deflation, the most likely outcome will be a brutally painful burst of stagflation which could last for years.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

EUROPE/TRADING/FRIDAY

European Stocks Slide On ECB Rift, S&P Futures Flat With US Closed

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index opened at three-week highs only to quickly see the 4-day rally reverse, and turn negative by as much as -0.8% with banks and energy indexes leading the decline with losses of 1.5% and 1.3% respectively, after Bloomberg reported that a conflict was brewing at the ECB over its “priced in” stimulus package coupled with political upheaval in France which saw a blitz-replacement to the prime minister.

 

According to Bloomberg, ECB President Christine Lagarde’s signature crisis-fighting tool “is becoming the focus of disagreement among policy makers in what could amount to her first major test of discipline.”

As a result, Governing Council members face a potential rift over how much their emergency bond-purchase program should stay weighted toward weaker countries such as Italy, and while the debate remains hypothetical for now, it could crystallize as the economy emerges from the coronavirus pandemic. The danger is that such friction undermines a program unveiled at the height of the crisis to reassure investors of the ECB’s resolve in defending the integrity of the euro.

That said, the fundamental landscape remains unchanged and fresh catalysts remain light, although a modest blip lower was seen upon the French PM resigning as part of President Macron’s reshuffle – a move speculated by local press in recent days. The morning also saw come comments from German Chancellor Merkel who reaffirmed her low expectations of a smooth Recovery Fund agreement, whilst again expressing concern over the Hong Kong National Security Law as Germany takes the helm of the EU presidency for the second half of the year.

In terms of individual movers, Wirecard (+8%) opened with gains of around 15% amid source reports the group’s US arm has drawn interest from payment groups and could fetch around USD 400mln. EDF (+3.6%) hold onto gains after raising FY20 nuclear output. Associated British Foods (-1.1%) shares remain subdued amid a broker downgrade at Goldman Sachs.

Not helping Europe was the latest batch of Service PMIs, which while coming slightly better than expected, were still in contraction territory.

 

Meanwhile, while the US was closed for Independence Day, equity futures accelerated the late Thursday fade, while the dollar was modestly higher.

 

 

Asian stocks gained, led by IT and health care, after rising in the last session. All markets in the region were up, with Shanghai Composite gaining 2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rising 1%. Trading volume for MSCI Asia Pacific Index members was 66% above the monthly average for this time of the day. The Topix gained 0.6%, with YAC HD and Kusuri no Aoki HD rising the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2%, with CTS International and Datong Coal posting the biggest advances. Sticking with China, tensions seem to have bumped up a notch as India’s Power Minister said India will not permit imports of power equipment from China and Pakistan – a move which prompted China to state they will take necessary measures to uphold the rights of Chinese businesses in India.

As Bloomberg notes, investors continue to weigh promised stimulus measures and upbeat economic data against relentless new outbreaks of the virus. U.S. payrolls figures Thursday fueled optimism of a V-shaped recovery in the world’s biggest economy, even as Florida reported that infections and hospitalizations jumped the most yet, and Houston had a surge in intensive-care patients.

“There’s still a general positive sentiment about how quickly we’re seeing the recovery,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA Bank. “But we do think you’re going to see the recovery level off, especially if we continue to see higher case numbers on the virus.”

In FX, the Euro dipped as French President Emmanuel Macron named a new prime minister after asking his government to resign. While the dollar was modestly higher, the Bloomberg dollar index headed for its first weekly drop since early June after better-than-expected economic data damped demand for haven assets. This week’s risk-on sentiment was supported by improving U.S. labor market numbers and data signaling a turnaround in Europe’s struggling economy

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures continue to edge lower on the final trading session of the week with volumes light amid US’ absence in the market. However, on the OPEC front, Angola may prove to be a spanner in the works regarding the extended cuts after the oil producer, via sources yesterday, noted that it is still resisting the idea of over complying to make up for its shortfalls in the prior months. Under the terms of the OPEC+ agreement in June, the continuity of extended cuts is contingent on laggards overcompensating in July, August and September. WTI August lost its USD 40/bbl handle to the downside and loiters around session lows (vs. high 40.50/bbl) whilst the Brent September contract had multiple jabs at 42.50/bbl to the downside before breaching the psychological mark (vs high 42.99/bbl). Spot gold meanwhile sees little action on either side of USD 1775/oz amid a lack of fresh fundamental catalysts. Copper sees a session of losses as China enters a season of lower demand for the red metal, whilst Shanghai stocks also printed a build, according to the exchange.

US markets are, of course, closed for Friday’s session.

END

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/EUROPE/FLORIDA/GLOBE//SATURDAY

Florida Kicks Off 4th Of July With Another COVID-19 Record As Global Total Tops 11 Million: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Florida reports another record jump
  • US reports another record daily jump with 53k+ cases
  • Deaths continue to decline
  • Midwest now seeing cases trend higher
  • Northeast now only region in US where cases are still declining
  • Catalonia places 200k on travel restrictions
  • Tokyo asks residents not to leave the city
  • Russia cases continue to trend lower
  • India reports another daily jump
  • Brazil case total tops 1.5 million

* * *

Update (1125ET): Arizona’s recent efforts to close down parts of its economy to slow the spread of the virus are clearly paying off, as the number of cases reported on Saturday was well below the state’s 7-day average. The state reported 2,695 (+2.9%) new cases, bringing the statewide total to 94,553, while reporting another 17 deaths. To put today’s numbers in context, the average daily increase over the past week has been 4.4%.

Saturday’s numbers (reported, as always, with a 24-hour delay) brought the statewide positivity rate to just 10.7% as testing capacity increases in Arizona, like it is across the US.

The rate of new patient arrivals has slowed, but hospitalizations continue to rise, with more than 5,000 as of Saturday…

…while Hospital capacity continues to decline.

* * *

Update (1040ET): As expected, Florida reported yet another record jump in new COVID-19 cases as testing also hit new record highs amid a pre-Holiday Weekend rush.

  • FLORIDA CORONAVIRUS CASES RISE BY A RECORD 11,458 ON SATURDAY, SECOND TIME CASES INCREASED BY MORE THAN 10,000 IN THREE DAYS
  • FLORIDA COVID-19 CASES REACH 190,052 VS 178,594 DAY EARLIER

That’s its first record jump since Thursday.

Here are the daily totals from the last ten days:

  • June 21: 2,926
  • June 22: 3,286
  • June 23: 5,508
  • June 24: 5,004
  • June 25: 8,942
  • June 26: 9,585
  • June 27: 8,530
  • June 28: 5,266
  • June 29: 6,093
  • June 30: 6,563
  • July 1: 10,109
  • July 2: 9,488
  • July 3: 11,458

According to the daily report from the Department of Health, 85,086 test results were received from labs on July 3, the largest daily total yet.

Another 18 Florida residents died on Friday, according to the state.

Friday marked the 11th-straight day where the number of newly reported coronavirus cases surpassed 5,000.

Health experts have said that a 5% positivity rate or lower is recommended to begin reopening, according to WTSP, a Tampa-area TV station. The 7-day average positivity rate is roughly 13%.

* * *

As President Trump prepares to celebrate the 4th at Mount Rushmore in a move that his critics will inevitably decry (with some justification) as another mistaken play to the base at a time when he should be focused on courting the moderates he needs to win a second term in November.

Some have suggested that Trump secretly doesn’t want to win a second term, and would prefer to move back into Trump Tower (with round-the-clock secret service protection for life, with the taxpayer’s footing the bill) than spend another 4 years in DC. at any rate, the US reported another record jump in new coronavirus cases, likely a result of a surge in new tests, with the US running more than 700k tests in a single day for the first time since the pandemic began.

Globally, the world is reporting more cases per day than it ever has, with the world reporting about 180k yesterday, with another 200k projected for today (what would be another record high).

While the media will inevitably spin these figures in the worst possible light, it’s worth noting that, despite a handful of individual outliers reported over the past 7 days, deaths nationally have continued to trend lower, even as hospital capacity in Arizona and Texas is starting to look dangerously stretched.

On Friday, the US reported more than 53k cases, according to the Atlantic-sponsored COVID Tracking Project. That’s the 7th record total in 9 days.

Once again, the south and the west were the biggest contributors at the regional level, with record numbers seen from South Carolina to Georgia to Texas over the past few days.

One of the most discouraging trends over the past week is the midwest, where the trajectory of new cases has shifted from plateauing to moving decidedly higher. That means the Northeast is now the only region where daily case totals aren’t rising.

Note: The Pacific region, which includes Hawaii, Alaska, and several non-state island territories, hasn’t seen much of an uptick in new cases.

In the Midwest, states like Michigan, Ohio (one of the five worst-hit states in the country) and Missouri have been big contributors. Early on, Chicago saw one of the first outbreaks to take shape, and Illinois has also seen cases trend higher over the past couple of weeks. Yesterday, Florida officially passed NJ to become the fourth-worst-hit state in the US, judging by the number of cases.

Fortunately, deaths across the US have continued to trend lower, as the median age of hospitalized has dropped sharply. In Florida’s Broward County, the median age has fallen to 33, down from 60+.

Looking toward Europe, the biggest news overnight is the decision by the Spanish government and local officials to place 200,000 people in Catalonia back on lockdown. Catalonia (situated in northeastern Spain and the home of a powerful separatist movement that tried and failed to secede from Spain a few years back) has placed a travel ban affecting 200,000 people near the town of Lleida. From 4 pm local time on Saturday, no one will be able to enter or leave the region. Regional health ministry data showed there were 3,706 cases in the Lleida region on Friday, up from 3,551 the previous day, a jump that’s simply too alarming for the government in Madrid to ignore, even as it struggles to help the country’s essential tourism industry salvage what’s left of the summer season.

The Catalonians aren’t the only ones implementing new travel restrictions: Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike on Saturday urged residents of the Japanese capital not to travel beyond its borders as the city reported more than 100 new COVID-19 infections for a third day. The capital city reported 131 new cases Saturday.

Cases in Tokyo have risen to a two-month high as young people have returned to nightlife spots, exhibiting a similar dynamic to the US.

As the UK pushes to reopen its battered economy, Chancellor the Exchequer Rishi Sunak and PM Boris Johnson have urged Britons to do their ‘patriotic’ duty’ and eat out.

The UK’s shutdown has been one of Europe’s longest and most fraught because of the country’s surprisingly high death toll of 44,131, which has left it with one of the highest mortality rates in the world (rivaling only Sweden in Europe).

The WHO continued to urge countries to take the outbreak more seriously, warning that more nations (including, of course, the US) need to “wake up” to the seriousness of this threat and “take control” of the pandemic.

India reported yet another record daily spike of 22,772 cases on Saturday, along with another 442 deaths, according to the Indian Ministry of Health. Total positive cases now stand at 648,315, with 18,655 of those having died from the virus.

As its daily case totals continue to decline, Russia reported 6,632 new cases of the virus on Saturday, raising the nationwide tally to 674,515. 168 Russians died, bringing the official death toll to 10,027, though some argue the total is actually much higher. As it continues to report daily infections at around the same level as the US, Brazil has seen its case total pass 1.5 million.

Circling back to the US, another major COVID-19 related headline is that Kimberly Guilfoyle, the girlfriend of Donald Trump Jr., has tested positive for COVID-19, further cementing the media narrative that everyone around the president has, or has already been infected with, the virus.

 END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Syria prepares for a military confrontation with the belligerent Turkey

(Southfront.org)

Syria Prepares For Military Confrontation With Turkey In Northeast

Via Southfront.org,

The Syrian Army and the National Defense Forces have put their forces on high alert in response to the new round of aggressive actions by the Turkish Army and its proxies in northeastern Syria.

Several convoys of government forces, including several T-62M battle tanks and a number of trucks equipped with heavy machine guns, deployed to the countryside of Ayn Issa after intense Turkish artillery strikes on positions of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and the army near al-Nuyhat in northern al-Hasakah and Hushanah in northern Raqqah. Another group of government troops deployed near the town of Tell Tamr.

According to local sources, the recent Turkish strikes led to no casualties among civilians or military personnel. Nonetheless, regular Turkish attacks on these areas in fact turned a large part of the territory located relatively close to the Turkish-occupied area into a no man’s land. Syrian state media also reported that Turkey set up a new training camp for its proxies northwest of Tell Tamr.

While the chances of an open full-scale military confrontation in northeastern Syria between Turkey and the Syrian Army remain low, the military stalemate with regular ceasefire violations clearly does not contribute to any kind of peace process.

At least one soldier was killed and 3 others injured in an attack by gunmen on a checkpoint in the town of Talfita in the western part of the Qalamun region, near the border with Lebanon. Following the attack, the army and security forces deployed additional units to the area in order to find and neutralize the attackers. Hezbollah is reportedly also involved.

Such attacks in Western Qalamun are an uncommon development due to the strict security measures employed. A previous notable incident of this kind happened in December 2019, when gunmen stormed an army checkpoint in the town of Rankos in Eastern Qalamun. Then, all the attackers were tracked and neutralized in a series of operations within a few weeks of the incident.

end

IRAN//ISRAEL

Looks like Israel did it again:  Another mystery blast in an Iranian power plant where centrifuges are located

(zerohedge)

Third ‘Mystery’ Blast In Less Than A Week Rocks Iran Power Plant

On Saturday an explosion ripped through a power plant in the Iranian city of Ahvaz, marking the third ‘mystery’ blast to hit the country in only under a week, and the fourth recently.

State media showed emergency crews on the scene of the daytime incident while a fire raged at the power plant. This followed days ago a huge blast which destroyed Sina hospital in northern Tehran, which killed 19 people and injured 14.

Iranian authorities had described the Sina blast as the result of a gas leak. A similar explanation was offered for other prior explosions.

To review, starting over a week ago a massive explosion was observed lighting up the midnight sky outside Tehran, caught on film by local residents, which Iran’s military dismissed as a gas leak explosion incident. But it was later revealed to have occurred at a ballistic missile development facility.

END

6.Global Issues

CANADA/HONG KONG/CHINA

Canada suspends extradition treaty with Hong Kong.  It will welcome many of Hong Kongers to become citizens of Canada.  Both Toronto and Vancouver house many Chinese.

(zerohedge)

Canada Suspends Extradition Treaty With Hong Kong, Slams “Secretive” New Law

In massive new fallout two days after China’s new Hong Kong national security law went into effect, Canada announced Friday it will suspend its extradition treaty with Hong Kong. This effectively opens the door for Hong Kong democracy activists, who might potentially find themselves “wanted” by pro-Beijing authorities and accused of crimes, to seek out Canada as a safe-haven. No longer will Canada agree to extradite ‘criminals’ back to Hong Kong.

 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, via Reuters.

As we’ve noted, this week the exodus of young anti-Beijing activists has already begun over fears they could be charged on “terrorism and subversion” just for leading protests with now banned slogans and ‘revolutionary’ signs.

But the drastic Canada move – also coming at a time of rapidly worsening US-China and UK-China relations – has further implications touching on trade and military ties, as Reuters reports of the latest government statements

In a statement, Foreign Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne also said Ottawa would not permit the export of sensitive military items to Hong Kong, which is home to around 300,000 Canadians.

…Champagne condemned the “secretive” way the legislation had been enacted and said Canada had been forced to reassess existing arrangements.

This includes “closed trials” and lack of independent review or appeal, with the potential for life in prison for certain egregious crimes deemed motivated by terrorism or separatism. In his statement Champagne announced“Canada will treat exports of sensitive goods to Hong Kong in the same way as those destined for China.Canada will not permit the export of sensitive military items to Hong Kong.”

“Canada is also suspending the Canada-Hong Kong extradition treaty,” he added. And on the day the law went into effect, Wednesday, Canada took this action:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau suggested in a briefing to reporter that more punitive measures are likely to follow, possibly related to immigration and additional travel restrictions.

Recall too that all of this comes on the heals of the 2018 drama involving Canada’s detention of Huawei chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, at United States request.

end

CORONAVIRUS/THE GLOBE/SUNDAY.

World Suffers Record Daily Jump In New COVID-19 Cases On July 4th: Live Updates

Summary:

  • World sees record jump in COVID-19 cases
  • Florida reports 9,999 new cases
  • Arizona sees roughly 3,500 new cases
  • South Africa sees record jump in new cases
  • US reports 53k cases for Sunday
  • WHO cancels hydroxychloroquine trials
  • Russia cases near 700k
  • Japan sees another 277 new cases

* * *

The world celebrated America’s independence by reporting 212,000 new cases of the Coronavirus yesterday, with roughly half that total came from the US, India and Brazil alone.

Data from Johns Hopkins put the number at 207k:

JHU put the number of cases confirmed in the US yesterday at 52,391, with 7.6% of tests coming back positive.

Source: JHU

The last record high in the US arrived on July 3, when 57,549 people tested positive for the first time.

Following studies showing hydroxychloroquine can be effective at mitigating symptoms in patients if taken early enough in the life of the infection, the WHO said yesterday that it planned to discontinue trials of the Trump-approved malaria drug, along with a combination HIV drugs known as lopinavir/ritonavir in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 after the medications failed to reduce mortality.  (Harvey:  with HCQ and AZM you must use zinc as well..zinc is the killer !!)

This comes almost exactly a month after the WHO decided to resume trials of the drug.

Worldwide cases have reached 11.23 million while 6.04 million patients have recovered, according to the latest Johns Hopkins University tally. The number of deaths worldwide hit more than 530,000.

Already, Arizona and Florida have reported their case numbers for the last 24 hours, with both states seeing a minor retreat from the all-time highs in daily case numbers.

As of Sunday, coronavirus cases are on the rise in 34 states over the past week, with 12 seeing an increase of more than 50%. Three states, Kentucky, New Hampshire and Vermont, are reporting a decline in cases.

Florida reported 9,999 new coronavirus cases Sunday, coming one day after the state set a record for most cases in a single day with a total of 11,458 new cases, which also surpassed New York’s previous single-day high of 11,434, which was recorded in mid-April.

Arizona reported 3,536 new cases, and 4 deaths, bringing its total confirmed to 98,089 1,809 coronavirus-related deaths, according to the state’s latest numbers.

New York, meanwhile, saw another 533 new cases and 8 fatalities.

He also confirmed the state would move on to phase 3 tomorrow.

Internationally, the Philippines reported its biggest jump in new cases with 2,434, taking its total count to 44,254, the health ministry said.

South Africa is reporting more than 10,000 new confirmed coronavirus cases for the first time in a single day, bringing the country’s total confirmed cases to more than 187,977, by far the most of any country in Africa.

South Africa also has surpassed the deaths of 3,000 people in the outbreak.

As more of the Middle East rolls back restrictions, Saudi Arabia’s coronavirus cases have surpassed 200,000 and neighboring UAE has 50,000, with the number of new cases climbing after both countries fully lifted curfews last month.

Russia reported 6,736 new cases, bringing its total to 681,251, with 134 new deaths bringing its death toll to 10,161. India saw its biggest surge in COVID-19 cases, with 24,850 new cases and 613 deaths in the last 24 hours. The country’s tally of infections rose to 673,165 as the death toll increased to 19,268, according to health ministry data.

Finally, Japan reported 277 new coronavirus cases Sunday morning, bringing the country’s total number of cases to 20,234 (19,522 on land and 712 on the Diamond Princess cruise ship).

END
CORONAVIRUS UPDATE MONDAY//AUSTRALIA/THE GLOBE

Australian State Closes Borders As COVID-19 Cases Surge; Scientists Urge WHO To Revise Guidance: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Global case total nears 11.5 million
  • Victoria, home of Melbourne, closes borders, including with New South Wales
  • Goldman lowers 2020 GDP forecast over COVID-19 rebound
  • California prepares for a COVID-19-infused wildfire season
  • FDA approves new rapid-detection test

* * *

Excuse us – we just couldn’t help ourselves…

…after months of a global pandemic killing more than half a million people and infecting 11,470,637 globally (as of Monday morning, per Johns Hopkins University data), hundreds of scientists are joining together in an open letter to the World Health Organization urging the WHO to update its guidelines – which myriad critics (including many quoted on this website) have warned are woefully out of date – to account for the fact thatthere’s a growing body of evidence showing that the virus is, in fact, airborne.

Following the fiasco over the WHO’s disastrous flip-flops on its infection-control guidance on issues like the benefits of wearing masks, to the possibility of being infected by an asymptomatic patient (something one top WHO scientist once described as “rare”), few really pay attention to the agency’s guidance anymore.

As of now, the WHO guidelines claim that evidence of the virus being “airborne” (ie can glom on to larger particles like air pollution etc) isn’t especially convincing. More likely, aerosol droplets expelled when a person coughs, or sneezes or breathes are the primary transmission, and these ‘aerosolized’ droplets are too large to linger in the air, explaining why the risk of infection outdoors is much lower, so long as social distancing is maintained.

But in an open letter to the agency that will soon be published in a respected scientific journal, 239 scientists in 32 countries outlined the evidence showing that smaller particles carrying the virus that can linger in the air for longer and infect people, and that the WHO should amend its guidance claiming that this evidence “isn’t especially convincing.”

Of course, if true, this would create serious problems for restaurants as they try to reopen indoor dining, while also showing that health-care workers must wear N95 masks at all times or face odds of infection of virtually 100%.

News of the letter was published by the NYT on the 4th, but has garnered more attention Monday as Reuters approached the WHO for comment.

“We are aware of the article and are reviewing its contents with our technical experts,” WHO spokesman Tarik Jasarevic said in an email reply to a Reuters request for comment.

A confidence-inspiring response, to be sure.

Meanwhile, the biggest news overnight comes out of Australia, where the border between Victoria and New South Wales, the country’s two largest states, is being closed for the first time in 100 years as the number of new COVID-19 cases surge in Melbourne and the surrounding area, the latest step as the country – which recently touted its triumph over the virus – scrambles to stave off a resurgence. According to the AP, the hard-hit Australian state of Victoria suffered 2 COVID-19-linked deaths and its highest-ever daily tally of newly confirmed infections on Monday as authorities prepare to close the country’s border with New South Wales. Both men – one in his 60s and one in his 90s – were in the median age range for deaths in the country, and their deaths brought Australia’s death toll to 106.

Here’s more from the AP:

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews said of the 127 new cases, 53 were among 3,000 people who have been confined by police to their apartments in nine public housing blocks since Saturday.

Andrews said the high number of cases reflected a daily record number of tests exceeding 24,500.

Andrews also announced that the state border with New South Wales will be closed from late Tuesday night in an agreement between the two state premiers and Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Morrison had previously opposed states closing their borders.

It will be the first time Australia’s two most populous states have closed their border since the pandemic began.

New South Wales had previously banned travel from dozens of Melbourne suburbs that were locked down last week for a month due to high rates of infection.

NSW is clearly annoyed with its errant neighbor, with the state’s leader warning that stringent action must be taken to stop Victoria from reinfecting the country. NSW’s premier warned that the decision to close the border between the two states marked a new phase in the country’s struggle with the outbreak.

The leader of Australia’s most populous state said her government’s decision to close its border with hard-hit Victoria marked a new phase in the country’s outbreak.

New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian had criticized states that closed their borders to New South Wales residents when Sydney, the state capital and Australia’s largest city, had most of the country’s COVID-19 cases.

She noted the overwhelming majority of new cases in Melbourne in recent weeks were from community transmission. Everywhere else in Australia, the vast majority of cases were people infected overseas or by a returned traveler, Berejiklian said.

“What is occurring in Victoria has not yet occurred anywhere else in Australia,” she said. “It’s a new part of the pandemic and, as such, it requires a new type of response.”

New South Wales police will close the Victorian border from late Tuesday. Some flights and trains services would continue for travelers who are given permits and exemptions, Berejiklian said.

As we reported yesterday, Texas reported a startling spike in COVID-19-related hospitalizationsyesterday, as more than 8k new patients have been hospitalized in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, California is preparing for wildfire season by once again relying on posses of prison inmates to “volunteer” to fight the blaze. The only problem is this year, they’ll also be battling COVID-19.

Finally, Goldman revealed over the weekend that it was slashing its GDP forecast due to the COVID-19’s “resurgence”.

And once again, the market is expressing its confidence in Goldman’s house view by pushing Dow futures 400+ points higher following last night’s torrid rally in China.

In other news, the FDA has granted emergency-use authorization to Becton Dickinson for a COVID-19 antigen test that can be administered at the point of care and produce results within 15 minutes.

7. OIL ISSUES

VENEZUELA/USA

The uSA is onto Iran and Venezuela and they are now making the moves to seize the 4 tankers that that left Iran bound for Venezuela

Should be lots of fun

(AlMasdarNew.com)

US Moves To Seize Iran Petroleum On New Tanker Group Bound For Venezuela

Via AlMasdarNews.com,

US prosecutors will seek to put an end to Iran’s oil deliveries to Venezuela, as they have filed a new suit to seize the contents on these tankers.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. prosecutors are targeting the oil from four Iranian tankers, along with the payments between Tehran and Caracas.

 

Iranian oil tankers off the port of Bandar Abbas, via AFP.

The U.S. prosecutors allege that these payments made between Caracas and Tehran will help fund the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who Washington has designated as a terrorist organization.

“[These payments] support the IRGC’s full range of nefarious activities, including the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery, support for terrorism, and a variety of human rights abuses, at home and abroad”, U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Zia Faruqui claims in the filing.

Madanipour purportedly falsified the oil’s origin in papers and used mid-sea, ship-to-ship transfers to fool authorities and has allegedly been working on expanding his operations beyond Venezuela, finding buyers in China and Malaysia too.

The prosecutors claim to have obtained the businessman’s communications in which he discussed ways of transferring the money without triggering the US sanctions, with potential buyers suggesting an array of countries where it could allegedly be done – Oman, UAE, Turkey, Italy, and Germany, the WSJ says.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1314 UP .0079 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS..//CORONAVIRUS/UPDATE /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.52 UP 0.118 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2506   UP   0.0046  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3548 UP .0022 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 79 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1314 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 180.07 POINTS OR 5.21% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 966.04 POINTS OR 3.81%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,61%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 966.04 POINTS OR 3.81%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 180.07 POINTS OR 5.21%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 0.61% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 407.96  POINTS OR 1.83%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1777,00

silver:$18.21-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.69% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.45 UP  2  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 96.77 DOWN 40 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.41% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +04%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.43%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,24 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 81 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.43% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.67% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1306  UP     .0072 or  72 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.49 UP .09 OR YEN DOWN 9  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2482 UP .0057 POUND UP 57  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 16 basis points to 1.3545

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0188    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0172  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6/8643 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +04%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 0.69 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.46 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.81 DOWN 36  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 128.64 OR  2.09%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 205.27 POINTS OR 1.64%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 74.37 POINTS 1.49%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 152.70 POINTS or .206%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 305.21 POINTS OR 1.15%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 40.95 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 43.22 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    71.63  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.17 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 17 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.43 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  40.63//

 

 

BRENT :  43.02

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.69..plus one basis point…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.45..plus 2 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1306 ( UP 72   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.36 DOWN .034 (YEN UP 3 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.78 DOWN 39 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2491 UP 31  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.8629

 

 

the Russian rouble 71.86   DOWN 0.49 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 49 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3540 UP 21 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.43%

 

The Dow closed UP 459.47 POINTS OR 1.78%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 226.02 POINTS OR 2.21%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  27.98 CLOSED UP .30

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.274%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Big-Tech Wrecks Short-Shorts In Another Melt-Up, Bonds Shrug

A weekend full of scaremongering headlines about soaring COVID cases (though oddly very little mention of the plunge in deaths)…

Source: Bloomberg

Combined with mass shootings across many American cities, didn’t damped the enthusiasm for buying stocks, bigger the better, and more expensive the best… but as the chart below shows, bonds weren’t buying it…

Source: Bloomberg

An oldie but a goodie…

This followed an explosion higher in Chinese stocks (as outflows soared) on officials jawboning retail to invest in stocks… Yes, that is Chinese mega caps up 7% on the day!!

Source: Bloomberg

The S&P up 5 days in a row – the longest streak since Dec 2019… Nasdaq hit a new record high, surging over 2% from Thursday’s close…

Stocks soared in the last few minutes – as they have tended to do recently – pushing The Dow back above its 200DMA…

The market also shrugged off the following headline…

  • *FAUCI SAYS ASSUME ANY VACCINE WILL OFFER `FINITE’ PROTECTION

But that wasn’t going to stop the short-shorts getting crushed…

Source: Bloomberg

MAGA stocks soared, with all now back above $1 trillion market cap again…

Source: Bloomberg

AMZN >$3000

TSLA >$1300

Tech valuations are absurd again…

Source: Bloomberg

And then there’s Consumer Discretionary stocks’ valuations…

Source: Bloomberg

Everything was squeezed at the open but defensive were sold back to unchanged as cyclicals held gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Just for some context, from the US Cash open, things diverged quite notably today with Nasdaq panic bid, Small Caps dumped and S&P and Dow flat…

And what that has meant since the start of May – S&P +284pts during overnight session, -22pts during day session…

Treasury yields were around 1bps higher across the curve on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar slipped lower once again…finding support…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos surged higher in the last 24 hours…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver outperformed among the major commodities with WTI flat…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold futures tried (but failed) to regain $1800…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, this is probably nothing…

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Baltimore.MD

The job scene in Baltimore: Saturday report

Covid 19 kills 46,000 jobs

 

COVID Kills 46,000 Jobs In Downturn Baltimore

The economic realities that a V-shaped recovery is not possible in the back half of 2020 are being realized in Baltimore’s downtown area.

The Downtown Partnership of Baltimore (DPOB) published its annual State of the Downtown report on Tuesday and there are new concerns the COVID-19-induced recession will have long-lasting impacts.

 

Baltimore Downtown map 

“The areas that were impacted, as you can imagine more significantly tourism, restaurants, some of our cultural institutions… and those are the ones that we really have to rally behind now,” DPOB President Shelonda Stokes told WJZ Baltimore.

DPOB conducted two surveys in mid-March, just around the time, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan initiated virus-related lockdowns. Out of 150 respondents, DPOB said strict public health orders heavily impacted at least 94% of the businesses in the downtown district. About 29% of respondents said it would take upwards of three months to recover.

The survey found hospitality and restaurant/food service industries were the most impacted. It said restaurants, hotels, and retail shopping stand to lose billions of dollars. Nevertheless, DPOB claims COVID-19 has directly and indirectly impacted 46,000 jobs.

“We’re at a place that you could see even from the consumer sentiment survey that we’re still fearful. We’re cautiously re-entering, we’ve been comfortable in our homes, we’ve figured out how to work from home and be effective,” Stokes said.

Baltimore City is facing a double whammy – it’s not just the virus that has deterred people from traveling to the Inner Harbor area – but also crime across the city is out of control. On a per-capita basis, the city is one of the most dangerous in the country. Readers may recall our countless articles on the socio-economic implosion of Baltimore, starting years before the pandemic.

“Any level of violent crime in unacceptable,” said Councilman Eric Costello.

DPOB is confident some businesses may not survive the virus-induced economic downturn and urged residents to support local businesses in this time of crisis.

What’s unfolding in Baltimore is just one example of how a V-shaped recovery in city centers across the country is, by far, a distant dream, and, in fact, complete bullshit.

Businesses, and to be specific, small businesses, and the bottom 90% of Americans, have been devastated in the last couple of months.

Twitter handle Long View pointed out last week that “Retail sales bounced back like a rubber band because of stimulus (Trump checks, PPP, UE bonus). It’s all over in a few weeks & with the new uptick we likely see at least 6 more weeks of contraction with no plug. The real hit starts now.”

Knowing the backdrop of consumers, as to how they’re very reliant on Trump checks for consumption, there can be no V-shaped recovery this year – nevertheless, commercial shopping districts like the one in Baltimore – will remain depressed for the foreseeable future which will result in a period of high unemployment.

All of this comes at the worst possible time for Baltimore as the population crashes to a 100-year low – the tax base is collapsing as folks are quickly exiting the city for the suburbs. Coronavirus has exposed just how fragile the economy, society, and municipalities really are, which suggests the worst of the crisis is ahead.

end

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/USA./FRIDAY

US Suffers Record 52k New COVID-19 Cases As Holiday Weekend Begins: Live Updates

Coronavirus cases in the US hit another daily record on Thursday as Americans prepared for a distinctly joyless Fourth of July weekend that bears none of the sense of joy and revival that the country enjoyed on Memorial Day Weekend. According to JHU, the US reported 52,291 new cases, bringing its nationwide total to 2,739,879.

Source: JHU

Last night, Washington State Gov. Jay Inslee announced that he would pause the phased reopening process for all counties in the state for 2 weeks, joining NY & NJ in delaying some of its reopening plans due to the outbreak int he south and west, while dozens of states – including Texas and Florida, arguably the two hardest hit states – have taken steps to roll back or delay their reopening. He also announced a statewide directive for businesses to require face coverings of all employees and customers, just a few hours after Texas Gov Greg Abbott issued an executive order mandating mask-wearing.

Washington’s decision comes after the state reported 509 new cases yesterday, the highest single-day number since April 8.

While the resurgence of new cases in Washington State is definitely discouraging, heading into the weekend, only a handful of states in the northeast – NY, NJ, Connecticut, Mass., RI, Vermont, NH and Maine – haven’t seen the numbers backslide.

TO PUT THINGS IN PERSPECTIVE…

 

Image

end

USA auto sales plunge in the second quarter with GM, Toyota and Fiat all suffering 30% decline in sales

(zerohedge)

US Auto Sales Plunged In Q2 With GM, Toyota, & Fiat Suffering 30% Drops In Sales

U.S. vehicle sales for major manufacturers like Toyota, General Motors and Fiat were all slaughtered in the second quarter of 2020 as the U.S. deals with the brunt of the economic impact from Covid-19 – while already in the midst of an auto recession that we had written extensively about heading into 2020.

Sales for all three of those manufacturers were down more than 30% in the second quarter, mostly in-line with Wall Street’s predictions. Nissan, Hyundai and Porsche also suffered major drops in sales between April and June, according to CNBC.

Edmunds had predicted a 34% drop in sales for the second quarter, which is expected to be the worst quarter of the year due to the pandemic. GM’s sales fell 34% on the nose, Fiat’s sales fell 38.6% and Toyota’s numbers fell 34.6%. 

Nissan’s reported Q2 sales plunged 49.5% and Hyundai’s sales fell 23.7%, including a 21.9% plunge in June. Volkswagen posted a 29% decline in sales and sold under 70,000 vehicles in the quarter. Porsche sales fell 19.9%. 

Pickup trucks were a silver lining for both GM and Fiat in the quarter. Kurt McNeil, GM’s U.S. vice president, sales operations, said: “GM entered the quarter with very lean inventories and our dealers did a great job meeting customer demand, especially for pickups. Now, we are refilling the pipeline by quickly and safely returning production to pre-pandemic levels.”

Jeff Kommor, head of U.S. sales for Fiat Chrysler, cited fleet sales as being a problem. Many of those sales have been “canceled or delayed” he said.

Similarly, Bob Carter, executive vice president of sales for Toyota Motor North America, also spoke to CNBC about fleet sales being a problem: “Retail consumers are coming out looking for cars and trucks. What hasn’t yet returned to the auto industry is the fleet commercial buyer, particularly rental car. Those sales continue to be suppressed at about 20%.”

Zero Hedge readers likely already know that we had reported on the drought in fleet sales just days ago. “Weak fleet orders for June are making it seem as though a recovery is still far away,” we wrote. “Cox Automotive is forecasting that fleet sales will fall 56% to 1.3 million vehicles in June, after plunging 83% in May and 77% in April.”

In the same piece, we noted that Cox was also predicting that further job cuts could occur if production at U.S. automakers doesn’t eventually ramp back up.  Zohaib Rahim, economic and industry insights manager at Cox Automotive, said: “If we don’t see a rebound in 2021, this will be a problem for automakers. But right now they’re using all their production to supply dealers.”

In 2019, fleet sales accounted for about 22% of GM’s sales, with about half going to rental fleets and the other half going to corporations and government agencies.

Fleet sales made up about 28% of Nissan’s 2019 sales, with 93% of those going to rental car companies. 

 

 end
This is worrisome:  The Fed’s balance sheet is shrinking but not because of a lack of QE…it is the removal of the swap agreements.  Basically it means that the world is no longer in need of dollars and it looks like many are liquidating their surplus dollars
(zerohedge)

Fed’s Balance Sheet Shrinks For Third Consecutive Week

After three months of unprecedented gains, which saw an increase of $3 trillion to $7.2 trillion, the Fed’s balance sheet has posted its third consecutive weekly decline since the start of the corona crisis according to the latest H.4.1 statement.

The drop in the week ended July 1 amounted to $73.2 billion, and was just shy of the decline recorded two week prior, which was the biggest weekly drop since May 2009.

However, as has been the case in the past three weeks, the drop in the balance sheet was not due to a reversal or even slowdown in QE which continues almost every single day, with the Fed adding another $15.8 billion in Treasurys even as the settlement calendar and prepays meant MBS shrank by $32 billion in the week ended July 1 (don’t worry, the Fed is also buying about $4.5BN in MBS every day), but once again due to a decline in liquidity swaps, which shrank by $49.5 billion to $225.4 billion, after a $77.5 billion in the week prior and $92 billion in the week before that.

The amount of outstanding repo agreements also declined for a second consecutive week by a modest $9 billion, after an $8.9 billion decline in the week prior.

As shown in the chart below, the total amount outstanding in the swap lines, designed to ease a surge in demand for U.S. currency in the participating banks’ jurisdictions during the early weeks of the crisis, was the lowest since early April.

Coupled with other indications of slackening demand for the Fed’s bevy of emergency liquidity facilities, the reduction in currency swap line usage is for many analysts a sign that global financial markets are returning to near-normal after being upended by the coronavirus outbreak in February and March. “We expect a more rapid decline over the coming months as the majority of the swaps will roll off,” Citigroup economists wrote in a note last Friday.

The flipside is that it also means that the system is once again seeing a shrinkage in the circulation of the world’s reserve currency, an explicit tightening in financial conditions, and the adverse global impact of any macroshock will be substantially greater when one hits in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, with the S&P500 closely tracking the Fed’s balance sheet in the past three months, which has served as the primary factor behind the rebound in the market, the latest weekly drop coincides with the period of heightened volatility in the past three  weeks.

The shrinkage comes at a time when the Fed’s monthly liquidity injection has been tapered to approximately $120 billion, which suggests that while the balance sheet is likely to resume growing in the next week, it will be at a more gradual pace.

It also means that for the stock market to move substantially from this point on – since the market is now fully disconnected from fundamentals and is simply a derivative of endogenous liquidity and fund flow – Powell will need to find another justification to expand the Fed’s QE aggressively, as discussed in “JPMorgan Spots A Big Problem For Stocks.” Something like – for example – a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic…

Finally, those keeping track of how much corporate bonds the Fed has bought, the latest total for the Fed’s Corporate Credit Facilities LLC which includes purchases of both ETFs and corporate bonds, the Fed disclosed that as of June 25, there was $9.7 billion in book value of holdings (the Fed does not break out how many actual bonds it has bought vs ETFs), an increase of $1.4 billion from the $8.3 billion a week prior. Which means that the Fed continues to buy around $300MM in corporate bonds and/or ETFs every single day.

 

 

end

Distribution is still hampering delivery of goods. Here is an example of potatoes in the west that cannot get to market

(zerohedge)

 

 

COVID Impact – 1.5 Billion Pound Potato Mountain Trapped In Supply Chain 

Nationwide COVID-19 lockdowns led to the collapse of the restaurant industry has disrupted critical food supply chains, such as potatoes, which had nowhere to go. The closings of restaurants, hotels, and catering firms had a chain effect that rippled down the production line to processors and growers, “trapping 1.5 billion pounds in the supply chain,” said Bussiness Insider. Some farmers gave away millions of potatoes to food banks, while others were forced to destroy millions more.

Business Insider took a trip to a potato seed farm in Sheridan, Montana, and spoke with farmers Peggy and Bill Buyan, who described the emotional and financial impact COVID-19 has caused them.

Courtesy of Business Insider, here’s an excerpt of the video transcript: 

Narrator: These potatoes aren’t gonna end up on your dinner table. Their final destination is this hole. We’re in the small town of Sheridan, Montana, on a potato farm. Normally this time of year, Bill and Peggy would be sending their potatoes to be planted. Instead, they’re throwing away 700 tons.

Bill Buyan: The potatoes have been awful good to us for a lot of years, but this year it just really turned sour.

Narrator: And the same thing is happening across the Northwest.

Bill: I mean, it was just unprecedented. It’s the supply chain from the growers to the supermarket that got interrupted.

Zak Miller: More than half of our market shut down by government mandate.

Narrator: Now farmers across Idaho and Montana are stuck with mountains of potatoes. So why did this all happen?

We visited Buyan Ranch, where Peggy and Bill have been growing potato seed for 59 years. Normally, potato production across the Northwest looks like this. It starts with a seed grower like Buyan, where farmers grow a variety of seed strains.

Zak: Virtually all the potatoes grown started out from a certified seed. That’s a fairly rigorous process that avoids disease, imperfections.

Narrator: Buyan grows three different disease-free seed strains: Umatilla, Clearwater, and Russet Burbank potatoes. Each potato variety goes to a specific grower in either the fresh or processed segment. In the fresh segment…

Zak: You’re actually seeing the potato in its true form.

Narrator: That’s foods like a raw potato at a grocery store or au gratin potatoes at your favorite restaurant.

Zak: The other side of that is – we call it our process segment. You don’t actually see the potato; you see the byproduct or the end result of that.

Narrator: That’s the bag of potato chips, the french fries at McDonald’s, or the precut fries in the frozen section.

Zak: If you’re a fresh-product grower, you’ll plant a different variety, or a different genetic line of potatoes. If you’re a process grower, you’ll grow a different product line. Just, some fry better, they have a better color to them. Others grow better.

Narrator: Now back to the farm. Potato growers get the seed from Buyan and start planting in March, then they harvest in early fall. Once the potatoes are out of the ground, they go into storage or are sent to a factory, where they’re cleaned and turned into either fresh or processed potatoes.

Zak: When COVID hit, we had a huge run on retail, which lasted for about a week to two weeks, but then when we shut off all the restaurants, that’s when everything came out of kilter.

Narrator: Potatoes for food service, like restaurants, hotels, and catering, make up an estimated 55% of all potato crops.

Zak: Think of everything from white-table restaurants clear down to your fast, quick service.

Narrator: So when food-service establishments shut down because of COVID-19, it was a chain effect. Processors cut down orders with growers. Out of options, the growers cut their orders with seed farmers. And more than half of the industry’s potatoes were stranded on seed farms. In Peggy’s case, her customers in Washington were cut back more than 50%, and she and Bill were stuck with tons of seed they’d normally sell.

Zak: You can’t take some of these facilities that are built directly for food service and then tomorrow flip a switch and make them able to sell into retail. You’re asking – a square peg in a round hole, I guess, is the best analogy I can come up with.

Narrator: The surplus potatoes also couldn’t just be sent to grocery stores.

Zak: Grocery stores or retails would have been bursting to the seams with potatoes if we had redirected all that.

Bill: We had high hopes that maybe something would turn up, you know? That in a month or so, we might be able to send them somewhere for some kind of processing. But this year’s, there’s just no market for them, and we’re just taking them out, taking them into a burial pit.

Narrator: Peggy and Bill have been forced to bury 1.4 million pounds of potatoes in total.

*  *  *

A second round of the virus could be underway. This would absolutely devastate the farming industry that could spiral into collapse. Virus cases are surging across the nation, hitting record one-day totals, which has forced many states to pause or reverse reopening.

Goldman Sach’s latest state-level coronavirus tracker calculates 40% of the US has now reversed or placed reopening on hold.

“Arizona has now joined Florida, Texas and California in beginning to reverse reopening policy, bringing the share of the population in states where policy is becoming more restrictive up to 30% over just the past five days. Governors of several smaller states have announced their reopenings are on hold, and yesterday the governors of New York, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut each said they are considering postponing reopening plans as well,” we noted.

The US reported 50,000 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday, the highest single-day total since the start of the pandemic.

As the virus reemerges, states pause or reverse reopenings, businesses will operate at limited capacity or not at all – suggesting farmers could see another round of pain.

To make matters worse, China has ditched US farmers for ones in Latin America.

Time for President Trump to bailout out farmers for the…. (we lost count). 

end

CUBA/USA

Cuba is now in a complete mess as communism has totally destroyed their economy.  Now the head honchos over thee are telling their citizens to grow their own food or starve.

(zerohedge)

Cuba-geddon? Amid COVID Crisis, Havana Tells Citizens To “Grow Your Own Food” Or Starve

Cuba, facing one of the worst food shortages in years, is now telling its citizens to grow their own food, or literally starve.

The pandemic has exposed the fragility of the Caribbean island’s food supply chain as produce, poultry and other basic item shortages develop.

The topic of food security has been a hot subject with the communist party. Several state media broadcasters aired televised roundtable discussions about the issue, reported Reuters.

“Cuba can and must develop its program of municipal self-sustainability definitively and with urgency, in the face of the obsessive and tightened US blockade and the food crisis COVID-19 will leave,” Jose Ramon Machado Ventura, deputy leader of the Cuban Communist Party, was quoted on state media Monday.

Cuba imports about a third of its food, at the cost of $2 billion annually. Those imports have plunged under the Trump administration, which imposed new sanctions on the country in 1H19.

The sanctions triggered shortages of imported food and then steep declines in national agricultural production. Domestic production of rice, tomatoes, and pork plummeted 18%, 13%, and 8% respectively last year – we noted the communist party had to issue widespread rationing of staple foods last year due to shortages triggered by US trade embargo.

Sanctions and a virus pandemic, have created a perfect storm that has crushed the nation’s food supply chain and economy.

“Today we Cubans have two big worries: COVID-19 and food. Both kill. We are flooded with scarcity,” said Yanet Montes, a resident of Havana told Reuters.

Montes and other residents have warned the availability of produce at markets in Havana are quickly dwindling.

The communist party has distributed leaflets to cities and towns to inform citizens how to grow their food.

“It’s great more people are planting, but it cannot just be when there is a crisis,” Marnia Briones, a sustainable agriculture enthusiast, said.

Cuban economist Omar Everleny said the communist party must push for reforms so a more robust agriculture industry can thrive, which would lessen the country’s food supply chain exposure to the international community.

“I have the impression in the next few months we will see new reforms,” Everleny said.

END
Fleet sales plunged by 56% in the last week of June and expect further problems this month.
(zerohedge)

Fleet Sales To Plunge 56% In June, Pressuring US Auto Market Further

Over the last few months we detailed how used car prices were set to cripple what little interest in new cars remains, how dealers are scrambling to offer incentives and how ships full of vehicles are being turned away at port cities due to the lack of space and inventory glut.

And just as the industry was hoping for some respite, weak fleet orders for June are making it seem as though a recovery is still far away. Cox Automotive is forecasting that fleet sales will fall 56% to 1.3 million vehicles in June, after plunging 83% in May and 77% in April, according to Reuters.

Cox is also predicting that further job cuts could occur if production at U.S. automakers doesn’t eventually ramp back up.  Zohaib Rahim, economic and industry insights manager at Cox Automotive, said: “If we don’t see a rebound in 2021, this will be a problem for automakers. But right now they’re using all their production to supply dealers.”

Cox is still predicting, however, that commercial sales will bounce back in 2021 despite government orders taking a hit.

While fleet sales aren’t a main concern for automakers – higher margin sales to customers are – they can still put pressure on the industry as a whole. And with rental companies like Hertz now in the midst of bankruptcy, there is sure to be a profound effect not only on dealer sales, but the used car aftermarket. 62% of vehicles sold to fleet buyers in 2019 went to rental car companies.

In 2019, fleet sales accounted for about 22% of GM’s sales, with about half going to rental fleets and the other half going to corporations and government agencies.

Fleet sales made up about 28% of Nissan’s 2019 sales, with 93% of those going to rental car companies. 

John Ruppert, Ford’s general manager of commercial and government fleet sales said it “could be some time in 2021” before sales recover. He cites more people working from home as a headwind, despite it catalyzing the need for more delivery vehicles.

Commercial vehicle contract talks, which usually start in March or April, were non-existent up until this month. Now, they look to be commencing to some degree. Ruppert said: “We’re seeing those contract talks happening now in earnest. Some orders could be delayed a quarter or two, he said, meaning overall commercial fleet sales should recover some time in 2021.”

Meanwhile, GM’s strategy seems to be ignore reality and just hope for the best. The company stated: “Rental companies have been an important customer of ours. We expect that to continue in the future, when the rental market recovers.”

Let us know how that works out for you. 

Recall, earlier this month we laid out where used car prices are crashing the most in the U.S.

That report predicted a sharp drop in retail prices in the coming weeks, stating that “a combination of record supply, damaged consumer confidence, and new car incentives will ultimately create a perfect storm causing retail prices to drop sharply in the coming weeks.”

Between January and May, individual U.S. states experienced price drops ranging from 1% to 5%, the report shows.

“Luxury vehicles and electric vehicles are disproportionately represented among the top 15 models with the biggest drop in used car prices so far,” we noted in early June.

END

The coronavirus/rioting has caused many citizens to flee to the burbs. Now we see that Manhattan apartment sales have plumeted to the worst level in 3 decades

(zerohedge)

Manhattan Apartment Sales Plummet, Worst In Three Decades

The virus pandemic and social unrest have sparked an exodus of city dwellers to rural communities and towns. Remote access for work, and the recession, coupled with high unemployment, will extend this outbound emigration trend for the next several years as people seek cheaper living accommodations ex-metro areas.

It appears the factors mentioned above have dealt a heavy blow to the Manhattan real estate market, which suggests a correction in apartment prices are ahead.

Manhattan apartment sales plunged 54% in 2Q20 compared with the same period last year, marking the most significant decline in 30-years, according to Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman. The median sales price fell 18% to $1 million, the largest decline in a decade. According to real estate firm Compass, there were only 1,147 sales in the quarter, the lowest on record, due mostly because of coronavirus lockdowns barred agents from showing apartments until June 22.

“Manhattan was effectively shut down throughout the second quarter until the final week,” the report said.

“Agents are going nonstop right now,” said Bess Freedman, CEO of Brown Harris Stevens, told CNBC.

“Sellers can’t be married to pre-pandemic prices,” Freedman said. “Everyone needs to be reasonable and fair about the new environment.”

“There is going to be an incredible supply of rentals,” he said. “We are going to see a lot of negotiating and landlord incentives.”

The latest indicator that the Manhattan real estate market is turning could be the number of signed contracts in June, were down 76%, compared with the same time last year.

Further, an entire floor apartment at the “coveted” One57 building, one of the flagships of billionaire’s row, just sold for $28 million about six years after it was initially purchased for $47.4 million.

It marks a 41% discount for the luxury apartment in the span of about a half-decade. The plunge in prices would be the most significant discount to date at the building.

If readers aren’t familiar with the current exodus trends ex-cities – here’s the latest:

Coast to coast, people are fleeing cities:

Some have even fled to the Caribbean:

To sum up, if you haven’t considered leaving a major city – now might be the time, due mostly because a correction in housing prices is likely underway.

end
A strong indicator that we are not even close to a V shaped recovery
(zerohedge)

“Grossly Oversupplied”: Used Class-8 Sales Volumes Plunge 12% M/M, Stung By Low Prices And High Inventories

Key indicators for a true V-shaped economic recovery (i.e. actual productivity, not just printing money) for the American economy simply don’t seem to be lining up. For example, used heavy duty truck metrics for May are indicating that volumes have plunged 12% sequentially and longer term sales are down 20% year over year. 

The data, released by ACT, shows that YTD sales have still managed to eke out a 2% gain over last year, mostly due to an abysmal 2019, according to Truck Parts and Service. Class 8 average prices and miles barely budged, rising just 2% and 1% respectively from April to May, the report found.

“Longer term, average price, miles and age all contracted year-over-year, as well as year-to-date, down respectively from the first five months of 2019 by 16 percent, 2 percent and 6 percent,” the ACT report notes.

Kenny Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst commented: “Dealers are reporting that low used truck prices and high inventories were challenges before COVID-19 struck and they continue to be an issue. The upside for people buying trucks is that there are bargains available. Not surprisingly, most sales reps are reporting their business as much slower now than in early March, with some saying they are doing well with dump trucks and other vocational truck types, while aerodynamic sleepers continue to be grossly oversupplied.”

Full Class 8 sales data for June will be available in coming days.

Recall, in mid-June we noted that Class 8 heavy duty truck orders had crashed 62.5% in May to their lowest levels since 2011.

Still struggling with the remnants of an order backlog that started almost two years ago with record orders in August 2018, the industry was unable to find an equilibrium prior to the coronavirus pandemic. Orders were sluggish and we noted numerous trucking companies that closed up shop altogether in 2019.

After a 73% crash in April, Class 8 orders once again plunged 62.5% in May, to their lowest sales levels since 2011. Sales came in at just over 9,000, according to Transport Topics.

Don Ake, vice president of commercial vehicles at FTR, tried to look at the bright side: “It’s not a horrible number. It’s a fair number under bad conditions. It is going to be a long, slow climb back.”

Dan Clark, head of BMO Transportation Finance, says a V-shaped recovery isn’t likely: “Given that the industry is still wrestling with the hangover of a near-record two-year stretch of heavy-duty truck sales, which is now compounded by lower than previously expected economic activity for the next year or two, we aren’t expecting to see a V-shaped recovery in Class 8 sales.”

He believes that orders will remain “choppy” during the second half of 2020, especially heading into the election.

Nomi Prins interviewed by Greg Hunter
a must view…

Prins: “We’re Living In A Permanent Distortion”

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Three time best-selling book author Nomi Prins says long before the Covid 19 crisis, the global economy was faltering big time.  The Fed stepped in with the start of massive money printing in late 2019 to save the day.

Prins explains, “We were already in crisis mode as I mentioned at the end of my last book going into 2019.”

“What did we see at the end of 2019?  We saw this pivot, and I call it phase two. . . . Central banks had pivoted to easing mode. . . . Come September, October, November and December, the Fed is producing repo operations.  Those are short-term lending operations that are supposed to be the purview of the banks . . . . The Fed is not supposed to get involved, but it did.  The Fed had all kinds of excuses.  It said it was not QE, but it was. . . . The debt at the end of 2019 for the world was three times GDP.  For every $3 borrowed, only $1 of economic activity occurred.  That’s what we started 2020 with.  Throw a pandemic into that . . . and you have a long drawn out financial and economic crisis.”

Now, the money printing has gone into overdrive to save the system from the virus crisis.  The social and economic damage, according to Prins, is profound and not going away.  Prins points out,

“We are not going to pay back this debt, and this is global.  Nobody is even considering trying to pay back the debt that has been created.  Let’s think about why that debt has been created.  It’s not just because the economy slowed down.  That’s one reason and kind of an excuse.  The reality is the Fed is on steroids, and other central banks are on steroids . . . throughout the world in a larger number and larger magnitude than in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008.  This means all this new debt created is even cheaper than the debt created going into the 2008 crisis.  So, more debt, created more cheaply, means less incentive to pay it back and more incentive to push it down the road and grow it.  You’ve got this snowball of debt rolling down this high mountain, and it’s rolling and growing and getting bigger.  The mountain, which is the main street economy, is coming down as the snow ball is coming down, and the main street economy itself, that foundation, is really shaky. . . . How does this end?  It ends with us, the foundation, which is the main street economy, by both that snowball of debt and the avalanche of the mountain.  That’s going to be a multi-decade problem.

Prins says this next stage has a brand new name and explains,

I call this a ‘Permanent Distortion.’  I have not used this term in prior books, but I am using it because . . . the disconnect between financial assets, equity markets and the real economy . . . has become massive

There is going to be this endless supply of artificial stimulation into the markets. . . . Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley said the Fed’s balance sheet is going to $10 trillion.  That’s what I have been saying, and now he finally said it.  That’s not going away anytime soon.  That’s not being unwound anytime soon.  That becomes permanent lift to financial assets. . . . In the wake of that, less real capital gets used for infrastructure, research and development, growth and retooling the economy and getting jobs into this new period.”

Prins says gold prices are going to “follow the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet.”  It is that simple, and Prins predicts,

“As we saw in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008, gold and silver will have the ability to go up quite substantially as the Fed’s book increases in size, which we know it is going to do.  We have been told that multiple times by many different words by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.”

 

In closing, Prins says, “We are continuing to drive up asset bubbles where we don’t have the real economy to back it up…” 

“The more this ‘Permanent Distortion’ gets bigger, the more the likelihood the next crisis will happen… and it will be from a higher height.  It will be from a larger bubble, a bigger snowball accelerating downward more quickly.  I don’t think we are out of this crisis.  I think the markets are going to have a bumpy ride as the economy has a bumpier ride.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with three time best-selling author Nomi Prins.

*  *  *

 a bigger snowball accelerating downward more quickly.  I don’t think we are out of this crisis.  I think the markets are going to have a bumpy ride as the economy has a bumpier ride.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with three time best-selling author Nomi Prins.

 

end

 

iv) Swamp commentaries)

interesting:  Judge orders a Jeffrey Epstein accuser to destroy files.

(zerohedge)

Judge Orders Jeffrey Epstein Accuser To Destroy Files

Jeffrey Epstein accuser Virginia Giuffre has been ordered by a US District Judge to destroy files believed to contain the names of Epstein’s associates – because they were “improperly obtained.’

 

Epstein associates Bill Clinton, Ehud Barak, Prince Andrew and Les Wexner

Senior US District Judge Loretta Preska said on Wednesday that Giuffre’s attorneys would need to provide proof that the documents had been destroyed, adding that “Counsel shall submit an affidavit detailing the steps taken to do so,” according to Newsweek.

Preska noted that a protective order governing the ‘improperly obtained’ documents only applied during a civil lawsuit proceeding which has been settled.

Preska’s ruling came after a request by attorney Alan Dershowitz to gain access to the documents. Giuffre has claimed that Dershowitz was one of the men Epstein forced her to have sex with. In response, Dershowitz sued Giuffre for defamation in 2019. Dershowitz claimed that obtaining the Epstein files would be an asset to his defense.

Preska said in her ruling that Dershowitz’s desire to see all of the files “with over a thousand docket entries” was not a “targeted strike” but a “carpet bombing.” –Newsweek

In September 2019, an attorney for Epstein’s alleged ‘madam,’ Ghislaine Maxwell – who was arrested on Thursday, told Preska that that there are “hundreds” of people named in some 2,000 pages of documents.

The lawyer, Jeffrey Pagliuca, told U.S. District Judge Loretta Preska Wednesday that the materials also include an address book with about 1,000 names. Preska is considering how to carry out a ruling by the federal appeals court in New York that she must consider unsealing some of the documents. There was no detail at the hearing as to the identity of the people are named in the documents, and they may include women who say they are victims of Epstein, his friends and others. –Bloomberg

Epstein died after being taken into custody in July, 2019 on charges of sex trafficking and conspiracy to engage in sex trafficking. Since his rampant pedophilia became public, his associates – including Bill Clinton, Bill Gates, Ehud Barak, and Victoria’s Secret boss Les Wexner have sought to distance themselves from Epstein and his activities.

Other famous names associated with Epstein include LinkedIn cofounder Reid HoffmanElon Musk, and Mark Zuckerberg, who Musk introduced to the registered sex-offender. Zuckerberg spokesman told Vanity Fair “Mark met Epstein in passing one time at a dinner honoring scientists that was not organized by Epstein,” adding “Mark did not communicate with Epstein again following the dinner.”

Musk told the magazine “I don’t recall introducing Epstein to anyone, as I don’t know the guy well enough to do so, Epstein is obviously a creep and Zuckerberg is not a friend of mine. Several years ago, I was at his house in Manhattan for about 30 minutes in the middle of the afternoon with Talulah [Riley], as she was curious about meeting this strange person for a novel she was writing. We did not see anything inappropriate at all, apart from weird art. He tried repeatedly to get me to visit his island. I declined.

 

end

The Swamp does no get any swampier!

(zerohedge)

House Dems Move To Block All New Construction At Military Bases With Confederate Names

Congressional Democrats have just upped the ante in the debate over ten US military bases named after Confederate generals and a colonel.

“A House spending bill for military construction would block funding for projects at bases named after Confederate leaders unless the properties are in the process of being renamed,” The Hill reports.

 

Illustration via The Intercept

Prior George Floyd death protests and unrest across the nation, and the ongoing Black Lives Matter demonstrations, have brought the issue front and center, where discussions are said to be continuing among top Pentagon brass and in Congress, though the Trump administration has opposed the renaming of such iconic bases as Fort Bragg or For Hood, the latter for example named after Confederate General John Bell Hood.

The Hill describes further that bases named after historic Confederate leaders would see all construction funds halted:

The fiscal year 2021 appropriations bill for military construction and the Department of Veterans Affairs would prohibit funding from going to military construction projects “located on a military installation bearing the name of a confederate officer, except in the case that a process to replace such names has been initiated,” according to draft text released by the House Appropriations Committee.

But President Trump has vowed to veto any defense spending bill that requires the bases to be renamed.

Meanwhile recent public opinion polls have shown that the majority of Americans actually oppose renaming the bases.

A late June ABC News and Ipos poll strongly suggested the wave of statue and monument removals and ‘renamings’ remains unpopular on a national level.

END

And then this!!!
(zerohedge)

“Racist” College Researcher Ousted After Sharing Study Showing No Racial Bias In Police Shootings

The vice president of Research and Innovation at Michigan State University, physicist Stephen Hsu, has been forced out of his position at the university after daring to show actual facts from a 2019 study that show there to be no racial bias in incidents of police shootings.

Hsu wrote on his blog on Sunday that “The [Graduate Employees Union] alleged that I am a racist because I interviewed MSU Psychology professor Joe Cesario, who studies police shootings.”

“Cesario’s work…is essential to understanding deadly force and how to improve policing,” Hsu said.

Cesario’s 2019 study found “that the race of the officer doesn’t matter when it comes to predicting whether black or white citizens are shot.”

The conclusion of the study was that “contrary to activist claims and media reports, there is no widespread racial bias in police shootings.”

Cesario’s study was then cited in a June 3 Wall Street Journal op-ed called “The Myth of Systemic Police Racism”. The MSU communications team highlighted the mention of Cesario’s work days later and on June 10, the GEU “blasted” Hsu for sharing the research, claiming that it “did not alight with public statements issued by MSU,” according to blog The Police Tribune.

GEU Vice President Acacia Ackles said: “It is the union’s position that an administrator sharing such views is in opposition to MSU’s statements released supporting the protests and their root cause and aim.”

That’s when Hsu said the social media attacks began: “This started as a twitter mob attack, with very serious claims: that I am a Racist, Sexist, Eugenicist, etc.”

He also said he was under attack for blogging about research involving genetic differences of races. The GEU subsequently circulated a “Fire Stephen Hsu” petition that demanded Hsu’s firing.

The letter said: “The concerns expressed by the Graduate Employees Union and other individuals familiar with Hsu indicates an individual that cannot uphold our University Mission or our commitment to Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion.”

It continued: “Given this discordance with university values, Stephen Hsu should not be privileged with the power and responsibility of recruiting and funding scholars, overseeing ethical conduct, or coordinating graduate study.”

While more than 800 signed the petition to get him fired, days later Hsu had compiled over 2,000 signatures in a support petition.

“Over just a few days, 1700+ individuals from around the world signed the support petition… Among the signatories are hundreds of professors from MSU and around the world, and an even larger number of PhD degree holders,” Hsu said.

The support petition read: “We highlight that there is zero concrete evidence that Hsu has performed his duties as VP in an unfair or biased manner. Therefore, removing Hsu from his post as VP would be to capitulate to rumor and character assassination.”

“The power is in your hands to reaffirm free inquiry and free expression as the core values of the academic institutions and show how they align with the other values to which we are all committed and have spent time and energy promoting,” it continued.

It concluded: “The voices demanding Hsu’s removal are exactly wrong in pitting diversity and inclusion against free inquiry and freedom of speech. Instead, true diversity flourishes best under conditions of free inquiry, because such a philosophy demands that everyone have a seat at the table and that views be evaluated on the basis of cogency of the supporting reasoning and strength and internal consistency of the accumulated evidence rather than the identity, power, number, or vociferousness of the people expressing them.”

On June 19, Hsu was asked to resign from his position. He consented, but wrote on his blog: “I do not agree with his decision, as serious issues of Academic Freedom and Freedom of Inquiry are at stake. I fear for the reputation of Michigan State University.”

Days after Hsu stepped down MSU President Samuel Stanley said: “When senior administrators at MSU choose to speak out on any issue, they are viewed as speaking for the university as a whole. Their statements should not leave any room for doubt about their, or our, commitment to the success of faculty, staff and students.”

end
and then this:

Georgia Governor Declares State Of Emergency, Deploys National Guard Amid Atlanta Chaos

Georgia governor Brian Kemp (R) has declared a state of emergency and authorized the deployment of 1,000 National Guard troops due to a sharp increase in violent crime and property destruction in the city of Atlanta.

Five people were killed in shootings over the Fourth of July weekend, including an 8-year-old girl who was shot dead inside a car during a BLM protest. 30 more were wounded over the holiday weekend.

The National Guard troops will be dispatched to three locations in the city: The state Capitol, which has been the focus of protests over statues of segregationists and Civil War leaders; the Governor’s Mansion in Buckhead; and the recently-vandalized Department of Public Safety building in southeast Atlanta.

The governor’s aides earlier Monday said his emergency powers grant him the authority to deploy Georgia National Guard troops to Atlanta’s streets. He took that step in late May, after widespread looting and violence, at Bottoms’ request. –AJC

“Peaceful protests were hijacked by criminals with a dangerous, destructive agenda. Now, innocent Georgians are being targeted, shot, and left for dead,” said Kemp. who threatened on Sunday to “take Action” if Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms couldn’t control the unrest, according to AJC.

 

end

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

The BLS: In the establishment survey, workers who are paid by their employer for all or any part of the pay period including the 12th of the month are counted as employedeven if they were not actually at their jobs… As was the case in March, April, and May, household survey interviewers were instructed to classify employed persons absent from work due to temporary, coronavirus-related business closures as unemployed on temporary layoff. BLS and Census Bureau analyses of the underlying data suggest that this group still included some workers affected by the pandemic who should have been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff…  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_07022020.htm

Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine Cut Death Rate Significantly [50%] in COVID-19 Patients, Henry Ford Health System Study Shows https://www.henryford.com/news/2020/07/hydro-treatment-study

Dr. David Samadi @drdavidsamadi: They lied to us about Hydrochloroquine just to prove the President wrong…I want to ensure that everyone understands the gravity of the situation here. Hydroxy-chloroquine worked this whole time. The media said it would literally kill you if you took it simply because POTUS promoted it as a cure… The media’s obsession with harming the President literally resulted in thousands of unnecessary deaths.  Not to mention state governors who banned this drug simply out of disdain for the President…I told you for months that hydroxychloroquine was effective against COVID-19. Dr. Fauci and the CDC said that it was not only ineffective, but dangerous. Now, the science has proven me right… Why would Fauci have done this?

@paulsperry_: Current COVID-19 trends, illustrated through these exclusive charts, show how the MSM is creating national hysteria and panic all over again —>

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/ContentFileLoader.aspx?ContentGUID=a9e49836-abc7-41cf-8949-4497ddee0018

Apparently, Texas Covid cases are soaring because the Department of Health Services in Texas has redefined Covid cases to include 15 different options for ‘probable’ Covid cases.  Previously, only positive Covid tests determined Texas Covid cases.  Now, probable cases are included.

https://twitter.com/FogCityMidge/status/1278726119856971777

Heart conditions drove spike in deaths beyond those attributed to covid-19, analysis shows

Fear of seeking care in hospitals overwhelmed by the pandemic may have caused thousands of deaths, experts say – in five hard-hit states and New York City there were 8,300 more deaths from heart problems than would have been typical in March, April and May — an increase of roughly 27 percent over historical averages…   https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/investigations/coronavirus-excess-deaths-heart/

If masks work, why is there a need to do shutdowns?

 

@AnnCoulter: Rise in covid cases, without rise in deaths, isn’t bad news. It’s FANTASTIC news. That’s nature giving you an immunization shot.

WaPo: Fear of seeking care in hospitals overwhelmed by the pandemic may have caused thousands of deaths, experts say

Tech’s Embrace of Remote Work Sends San Francisco Rents Plunging

Rents for a San Francisco one-bedroom apartment have dropped about 12% from this time last year… Silicon Valley hubs such as Mountain View and Palo Alto also saw rents plunge — a sign residents of the tech-heavy region are taking advantage of remote work arrangements to flee to cheaper areas…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-01/tech-s-embrace-of-remote-work-sends-san-francisco-rents-plunging

Real Estate Prices Fall Sharply in New York – The number of closed sales in the second quarter were down 54 percent compared to the same period last year, the largest decline in at least 30 years… The median sales price fell 17.7 percent, compared to the same time last year, to $1 million, the biggest drop in a decade… The number of contracts signed for apartments in June, the latest indicator of buyer appetite, was down 76 percent, compared to the same time last year… More than 90 percent of the sales recorded in the second quarter were actually signed before the virus gripped New York in March

https://theentrepreneurfund.com/real-estate-prices-fall-sharply-in-new-york/

Nightmare in New York: How Covid-19, BLM protests and a liberal mayor are turning the city into a no-go zone as murders skyrocket, shops are looted and 500,000 middle-class residents flee

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8490367/amp/How-coronavirus-BLM-protests-liberal-mayor-doing-Bin-Laden-never-could.html

@thebradfordfile: OMG. 41 people were shot in NYC last night [Saturday], in case you’re wondering how defunding the police is going.

ECB Split Is Brewing on Pandemic Program That Calmed Crisis

At the core of the current argument is the much-touted flexibility of the pandemic emergency purchase program. Lagarde proclaimed it to have “no limits”… It allowed the ECB to skew purchases toward Italy… But it also meant deviating from a rule intended to keep the ECB in line with a European Union law that bans it from financing government spending. The so-called capital key links bond programs to the relative size of each economy — more German than Italian debt is bought regardless of economic conditions — and was a fundamental reason the EU’s top court ruled an earlier program legal in 2018… The ECB’s Governing Council will next meet in two weeks…

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ecb-split-is-brewing-on-pandemic-program-that-calmed-crisis/ar-BB16i56N?li=BBnb7Kz

The story on ECB discord generated significant declines for European bourses on Friday: FTSE: -1.33%, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.77%, CAC 40 -0.84%, DAX -0.64%, IBEX 35 -1.27%, FTSE MIB -0.81%.

Fox: Trump signed a bill on Saturday extending the Paycheck Protection Program through Aug. 8

The deadline for small business owners to apply for a PPP loan had been June 30…

https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/trump-extends-ppp-deadline-with-130b-left-in-small-business-fund

Jeffrey Epstein’s confidant Ghislaine Maxwell arrested on sexual abuse charges

She faces at least four sex trafficking charges. [Plus two perjury charges]

https://www.foxnews.com/us/jeffrey-epsteins-confidant-ghislaine-maxwell-arrested-in-new-hampshire-fbi-says

 

@seanmdav: Is it just a coincidence that a mere two weeks after Attorney General Bill Barr fired Geoffrey Berman, the U.S. attorney in the Southern District of New York, that the FBI and DOJ finally arrested and charged Jeffrey Epstein’s madam?

For months, media reports said Ghislaine had fled the US to a non-extradition country.  She was arrested in New Hampshire.  Rumors say Ghislaine was indeed ‘away’; but she returned after cutting a deal.  If true, perhaps she did not want to be ‘Epsteined’.  It was a very, very unpleasant 4th of July weekend for some elites, Deep Staters and politicians.

Friends fear Ghislaine Maxwell is in ‘danger,’ worried for her safety

https://nypost.com/2020/07/04/friends-fear-ghislaine-maxwell-is-in-danger-worried-for-her-safety/

The twisted way Ghislaine Maxwell allegedly groomed young girls for Jeffrey Epstein

She and Epstein would “spend time building friendships with the minor victims, by say, taking [them] to the movies or shopping,” the court papers said.  “Having developed a rapport with a victim, Maxwell would try to normalize sexual abuse,” prosecutors wrote… [She is being held without bail.]

https://nypost.com/2020/07/02/how-ghislaine-maxwell-forced-girls-to-perform-sex-acts-with-epstein/

Quietly, the MSM is ignoring it, DJT-Barr are aggressively prosecuting human trafficking & pedo-rings.

Schiff Learned of Russian ‘Bounty’ Intelligence in February, Withheld Information from Congress, And Took No Action – … multiple intelligence sources familiar with the briefing told The Federalist. The intelligence was briefed to Schiff’s staff during a congressional delegation, or CODEL, trip to Afghanistan in February…

https://thefederalist.com/2020/07/02/schiff-learned-of-russian-bounty-intelligence-in-february-withheld-information-from-congress-and-took-no-action/

@drawandstrike: Schiff just walked into a trap. Read the part about the CODEL travel records, which were supposed to have been disclosed in the Congressional Record by now, but they were left out.

 

Seattle Police Subpoena Photos, Video of Protests from Media – to gain access to unpublished media images from the May 30 protests… [That the media won’t provide!]

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/washington/articles/2020-07-03/seattle-police-subpoena-photos-video-of-protests-from-media

Fox: Feds arrest ‘ringleader’ [Jason Charter] in attack on Andrew Jackson statue by White House

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/feds-arrest-ringleader-in-attack-on-andrew-jackson-statue-by-white-house

Statue Destroyed of Famed Black Abolitionist Frederick Douglass on Anniversary of Notable Speech    https://www.dailywire.com/news/statue-destroyed-of-famed-black-abolitionist-frederick-douglass-on-anniversary-of-famous-speech

@MrAndyNgo: Antifa rioters set the monument honoring Oregon Trail pioneers on fire. They say it is a statue of colonialism and white supremacy.

Christopher Columbus statue near Little Italy brought down, tossed into Baltimore’s Inner Harbor

The torn-down Columbus statue is part of a “re-examination taking place nationally and globally around some of these monuments and statues that may represent different things to different people,” said Lester Davis, a spokesman for Democratic Mayor Bernard C. “Jack” Young, on Saturday night.

https://www.baltimoresun.com/maryland/baltimore-city/bs-md-ci-columbus-statue-20200705-xc4bhthfhjaflifz72org2lrhy-story.html

Portland Police Bureau: Demonstration Devolves into Riot July 4 to 5 2020-Arrests Made, Firearm Recovered    https://www.portlandoregon.gov/police/news/read.cfm?id=250952

Virginia officials order removal of American flag from construction site, calling it a “target” for protesters   http://hill.cm/ePap097

Even In Trump Era, Republicans Prioritize Pandering Over Pushing Back

The GOP’s priority should be fighting, not pandering, and they shouldn’t confuse the two either.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/07/02/even-in-trump-era-republicans-prioritize-pandering-over-pushing-back/#.Xv3aL2PTkVw.twitter

Trump administration hires tech firm to build virtual border wall, an idea Democrats have praised

https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/trump-virtual-border-wall/2020/07/02/7b380490-b0ac-11ea-a567-6172530208bd_story.html

University of Massachusetts Nursing Dean Fired After Saying “Everyone’s Life Matters”

https://jonathanturley.org/2020/07/02/university-of-massachusetts-nursing-dean-fired-for-saying-everyones-life-matters/

 

CA Gov Newsom Bans Singing in Houses of Worship after Downplaying Spread of Coronavirus at Protests    https://www.dailywire.com/news/newsom-bans-singing-in-houses-of-worship-after-downplaying-spread-of-coronavirus-at-protests

 

Catholic Priest Suspended for Sermon Condemning BLM’s Violence, Marxism and Destruction

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/07/catholic-priest-suspended-sermon-condemning-blms-violence-marxism-destruction/

 

Harvard grad lost Deloitte job after threatening to ‘stab’ anyone who says ‘all lives matter’ https://trib.al/Vr5GNh8

 

NFL plans to play Black national anthem before Week 1 games this season

https://nypost.com/2020/07/02/nfl-plans-to-play-black-national-anthem-before-week-1-games/

 

Conservatives slam reports that the NFL will sing the ‘black national anthem’ before the Star-Spangled Banner while black media members knock the league’s ‘symbolic gesture’

   Keith Boykin, a CNN commentator, said the move is unnecessary: ‘Black people are calling for substantive change, not symbolic gestures of support

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8487689/Conservatives-black-journalists-knock-report-NFL-play-black-national-anthem-Week-1.html

@KelemenCari: If Trump is the one dividing America, as the Left claims, why is the NFL going to have two separate national anthems

 

New poll finds 9 in 10 Native Americans aren’t offended by Redskins name   May 19, 2016

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/new-poll-finds-9-in-10-native-americans-arent-offended-by-redskins-name/2016/05/18/3ea11cfa-161a-11e6-924d-838753295f9a_story.html

@noonanjo: Redskins name change panic is… more about appeasing woke suburban white people than Native Americans, who consistently express a mixture of indifference and bafflement at all the fuss

In a speech at Mt. Rushmore on the eve of the 4th of July, Trump issued a blistering manifesto against the cancel culture and radical left.  He excoriated the fascism in the media, classrooms and boardrooms that is intimidating Americans as well as the craven politicians that are enabling the fascists.  DJT’s strident denunciation of a “left-wing cultural revolution designed to overthrow the American revolution” made the MSM apoplectic. The MSM accused Trump of what they have been doing for many years.

@nytimes: Breaking News: President Trump delivered a dark and divisive speech at Mount Rushmore, leaning into the culture wars and barely mentioning the pandemic.

LA Times: At M. Rushmore, Trump uses Fourth of July celebration to stoke a culture war

WaPo: Trump uses Mount Rushmore speech to exploit social divisions

 

@CNN: In a jaw-dropping speech that amounted to culture war bonfire, President Trump used the backdrop of Mount Rushmore to frame protesters as a nefarious left-wing mob that intends to “end America,” CNN’s Maeve Reston writes.  https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1279440910435127297

 

WaPo’s @costareports: President Trump’s unyielding push to preserve Confederate symbols and the legacy of white domination was crystallized by his harsh denunciation of the racial justice movement Friday night at Mount Rushmore. [A big lie: DJT did NOT “push to preserve Confederate symbols”]

 

CNN: [Trump] “will be at Mount Rushmore, where he’ll be standing in front of a monument of two slave owners and on land wrestled away from Native Americans.”

 

CNN Praised Mt. Rushmore [“majestic”] When Obama Visited; Attacks When Trump Visits

https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2020/07/03/cnn-praised-mt-rushmore-when-obama-visited-attacks-when-trump-visits/

 

@PhilipWegmann: What changed? Sanders said Mt. Rushmore made him proud to be an American in 2016, and CNN seemed to agree. Now people want to blast the presidents off the mountain.

https://twitter.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1279210898138238976

 

@thebradfordfile: Democrats are more outraged over Trump’s speech than the looting, arson, rioting, property destruction, mob violence, and anarchy.

Trump’s Mr. Rushmore speech highlights

Our nation is witnessing a merciless campaign to wipe out our history, defame our heroes, erase our values, and indoctrinate our children… Angry mobs are trying to tear down statues of our Founders, deface our most sacred memorials, and unleash a wave of violent crime in our cities… One of their political weapons is “Cancel Culture” — driving people from their jobs, shaming dissenters, and demanding total submission from anyone who disagrees.  This is the very definition of totalitarianism…

In our schools, our newsrooms, even our corporate boardrooms, there is a new far-left fascism that demands absolute allegiance.  If you do not speak its language, perform its rituals, recite its mantras, and follow its commandments, then you will be censored, banished, blacklisted, persecuted, and punished… this left-wing cultural revolution is designed to overthrow the American Revolution…

      The violent mayhem we have seen in the streets of cities that are run by liberal Democrats, in every case, is the predictable result of years of extreme indoctrination and bias in education, journalism, and other cultural institutions our children are taught in school to hate their own country, and to believe that the men and women who built it were not heroes, but that were villains.  The radical view of American history is a web of lies… No person who remains quiet at the destruction of this resplendent heritage can possibly lead us to a better future

    In toppling the heroes of 1776, they seek to dissolve the bonds of love and loyalty that we feel for our country, and that we feel for each other.  Their goal is not a better America, their goal is the end of America… it is time to speak up loudly and strongly and powerfully and defend the integrity of our country… It is time for our politicians to summon the bravery and determination of our American ancestors… Reverend Martin Luther King… said that the Founders had signed “a promissory note” to every future generation.  Dr. King saw that the mission of justice required us to fully embrace our founding ideals.  Those ideals are so important to us — the founding ideals.  He called on his fellow citizens not to rip down their heritage, but to live up to their heritage

    From this night and from this magnificent place, let us go forward united in our purpose and re-dedicated in our resolve.  We will raise the next generation of American patriots… https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-south-dakotas-2020-mount-rushmore-fireworks-celebration-keystone-south-dakota/

If DJT lives up to his speech, he is going scorched Earth on the Left between now and the election.

South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, with a strong presence and speech at Mt. Rushmore is now on the national radar.  She could be in the mix for 2024.  We have always thought the first female US President would be someone that is Thatcheresque.  Noem was a farmer, rancher and won the South Dakota Snow Queen title in 1990.   When she was 22, her father was killed in a farm machinery accident.  Noem left college to run her dad’s businesses.  She added a hunting lodge and restaurant to the property.  The expansion allowed her siblings to return to the businesses.  She took classes to get her college degree.

Kristi Noem Defends America’s Founders against Campaign to Eliminate Them from History

“In real-time, we are watching an organized, coordinated campaign to remove and eliminate all references to our nation’s founding and many other points in our history. Rather than looking to the past to help improve our future, some are trying to wipe away the lessons of history… This approach focuses exclusively on our forefathers’ flaws and fails to capitalize on the opportunity to learn from their virtues…this is being done deliberately to discredit America’s founding principles by discrediting the individuals who formed them so that America can be remade in a very different political image.”…

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/07/03/kristi-noem-defends-americas-founders-campaign-eliminate-history/

July 3, 2020 Op-ed in WaPo: It is time to reconsider the global legacy of July 4, 1776

American independence helped further colonialism and white supremacy

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/07/03/it-is-time-reconsider-global-legacy-july-4-1776/

Colin Kaepernick rips 4th of July as ‘celebration of white supremacy‘ https://trib.al/s9M67tn

The Worrisome Decline of Patriotism in America

The Gallup poll revealed that 88 percent of Republicans said they were very or extremely proud to be American, compared to just 42 percent of Democrats. College graduates, people of color, and young people were the least proud to be American… In March 2017, 43 percent of respondents in their twenties said they were extremely proud to be American. Today, that figure stands at just 20 percent…

   Mark Twain once defined patriotism as “supporting your country all the time and your government when it deserves it.” Americans have historically come together during times of crisis, but this isn’t happening now…  https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/07/the-worrisome-decline-of-patriotism-in-america/

Young Americans couldn’t answer simple questions about Independence Day, but call country ‘racist’ – Campus Reform spoke with young Americans and students to see what they knew…

https://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/07/04/young-americans-couldnt-answer-simple-questions-about-independence-day-but-call-country-racist-942827

Black Armed Protesters Challenge White Militia at Confederate Monument

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/were-your-house-lets-go-black-militia-challenges-white-militia-confederate-monument

Due to the silence of US politicians and MSM exaltation of the lefts’ violent tactics, protestors are going to push the envelope and become more aggressive and violent.  The immutable laws of human nature dictate that the violence and aggression will continue until there is a deterrent.   The longer the violence transpires, the more severe the consequences.  This is a very treacherous and worsening situation.

Joe Biden: “Good afternoon, everyone. As Lilly already indicated, I’m Joe Biden’s husband, Joe Biden.”

https://twitter.com/KamVTV/status/1279155918064816131

@SteveGuest: Democrat Senator (and potential Joe Biden VP pick) Tammy Duckworth says she is open to tearing down statues of George Washington…  https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1279782984393113603

The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.” –

Thomas Jefferson

Well that is all for today

I will see you TUESDAY night.

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