JULY 7/GOLD AND SILVER UNDERGOES ANOTHER OUTSIDE DAY REVERSAL: GOLD UP $12.50 TO $1796.90//SILVER UP 8 CENTS TO $18.33//GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AT THE COMEX; 18.3 TONNES (RISING EVERY DAY)//CHINA VS USA RHETORIC ESCALATES//CHINA DESPERATE TO OBTAIN DOLLARS AS USA IS SET FOR EXECUTIVE ORDERS (SANCTIONS)//IRAN HIT FOR THE SIXTH TIME BY ISRAEL//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE GLOBE//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1796.90  UP $12.50   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$18.33// UP 8 CENTS  London spot price

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1796.40  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $18.33//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

AUG GOLD:  $1809.50  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE AUG /: $12.50

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER SEPT COMEX CLOSE;   $18.67…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :  34 CENTS  PER OZ

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2600. usa per oz

and silver; $29.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 181/658

issued:  536

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,788.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/06/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 07/08/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 5
072 H GOLDMAN 49
135 H RAND 1
152 C DORMAN TRADING 7
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 3
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 2
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 52
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 98
661 C JP MORGAN 536 181
686 C INTL FCSTONE 2
690 C ABN AMRO 17
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 37 67
800 C MAREX SPEC 80 136
878 C PHILLIP CAPITAL 5 7
905 C ADM 28
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 658 658
MONTH TO DATE: 5,631

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 658 NOTICE(S) FOR 65,800 OZ (2.0446 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  563100 NOTICES FOR 563,100 OZ  (17.514 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JULY

 

 

213 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1,065,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 13,253 for 66.265 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $9259  DOWN 87  

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $9293 UP $293

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $12.50 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

 

 

GLD: 1,191.47 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE  SLV:

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 503.871  MILLION OZ./

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2115 CONTRACTS FROM 167,591 UP  TO 169,706, AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN  OI OCCURRED WITH OUR  24 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, ACCOMPANYING  A SMALL DECREASE  IN SILVER STANDING  AT THE COMEX FOR JULY.  WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2598 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A HUGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   JULY: 0  AND SEP 483 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  483 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 483 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 483 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 2.415 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 24 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

82.205 MILLION OZ INITIALLY IN JULY.

 

MONDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 24 CENTS).. AND,OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE NO DOUBT SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. THE TINY GAIN AT THE COMEX WAS ACCOMPANIED BY : i)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A SMALL DECLINE IN STANDING OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY,  STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A STRONG NET GAIN OF 2598 CONTRACTS OR 12.999 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

JULY

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF JULY:

1677 CONTRACTS (FOR 4 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 1677 CONTRACTS) OR 8.385 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 419 CONTRACTS OR 2.096 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY: 8.385 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 1.19% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,145.80 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EXP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EXP                               8.385 MILLION OZ/

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE FOR THE PAST 60 DAYS IS A LOT LESS.  NO DOUBT THAT THE COST TO CARRY THESE THINGS HAS EXPLODED  AND AS SUCH CANNOT BE DONE AS FREQUENTLY AS BEFORE.

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2115, WITH OUR 24  GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///MONDAYTHE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 483 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A  STRONG SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  2598 CONTRACTS (WITH OUR 24 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)//

 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 483 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED INCREASE OF 2,115 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED DESPITE A 24 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.25 // MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.8380 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 119% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  JULY  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 213 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,065,000  OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 82.205 million oz
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 2622 CONTRACTS TO 559,370 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED GAIN OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE  OF $6.50 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// MONDAY// WE  HAD HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED  GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JULY, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.50 .

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  31

 

WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 4686 CONTRACTS  (14.57 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 2064 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT .; AUG 1864 AND OCT: 200  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2064.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 559,370. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4686 CONTRACTS: 2622 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2064 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 4686 CONTRACTS OR 16.36 TONNES. MONDAY, WE HAD A GAIN OF $6.50 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE HAD A GOOD SIZED LOSS IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 14.57 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR  SUPPLIED INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT ROSE $7.00).AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WAS  ALSO UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

 

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (2064) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (3197 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  5261 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)ANOTHER STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT JULY MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION; 4) SMALL COMEX OI GAIN.. AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//MONDAY//$6.50.

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD

 

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST FOR GOLD:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUGUST), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY : 11,411 CONTRACTS OR 1,141,100 oz OR 35.49 TONNES (4 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2852 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 4 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 35.49 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 35.49/3550 x 100% TONNES =1.01% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3063.23  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                      35.49 TONNES SO FAR..

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2115 CONTRACTS FROM 169,734 UP TO 169,706 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO;   1)   HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A SMALL DECREASE STANDING AT THE SILVER COMEX FOR JULY AND  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 483 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 483 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 483 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN  OF 2115  CONTRACTS TO THE 483 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GAIN OF 2598 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 12.99 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH THE 24 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 24 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 483 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 12.46 POINTS OR 0.37%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 363.50 POINTS OR 1.38%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 99.75 POINTS OR 0.44%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .01%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0257 /Oil UP TO 40.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 42.83 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0257 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0204 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED //CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 2622 CONTRACTS TO 559,320 MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS LARGE  COMEX FALL OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $6.50 IN GOLD PRICING /MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (2064 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER HUMONGOUS STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//JULY DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) , …  AS WE ENGINEERED A GOOD GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4686 CONTRACTS WITH GOLD’S CONSIDERABLE GAIN IN PRICE. NOTE THE FACT THAT THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ARE SMALL.. SOME OF OUR MAJOR BANKERS ARE BANNED FROM USING THE SERIAL FORWARDS.  IF THEY USE THIS VEHICLE IT MUST BE USED FOR PHYSICAL ONLY.

 

 

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 31

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2064 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  AUG  1864 ,OCT 200 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2064 CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  4686 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2064 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 2622 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A SMALL  AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL COMEX OI GAIN,  A HUGE  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR THE JULY DELIVERY (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)… AND ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION……AND WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN COMEX PRICE OF 6.50 DOLLARS..

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $6.50).  AND, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS 

AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A GOOD 14.57 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 4686 CONTRACTS OR 468,600 OZ OR 14.57 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  559,320 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 55.93 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1739 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1739/2200 OR 79.07% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 97,577 contracts//very low volume//hitting rock bottom//most traders have moved to London

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  208,256 contracts//  volume low //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

JULY 7 /2020

JULY GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
89,897.010 oz
BRINKS
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 2533.90 oz

BRINKS

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

321,510.000

OZ

BRINKS

JPMORGAN

MALCA

INCLUDES

8,000 KILOBARS JPM

&

2000 KILOBARS

 

MALCA

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
658 notice(s)
 65,800 OZ
(2.0466 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
207 contracts
(20,700 oz)
0.6438 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5631 notices
563,100 OZ
17.514 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 1 deposit into the dealer

i) Into Dealer Brinks:  2533.90 oz

 

total deposit: 2533.90 oz

 

DEALER WITHDRAWAL: 0

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 2 deposits into the customer account

 

 

i) Into JPMorgan: 257,208.000 oz 8,000 kilobars

ii) Into Malca:  64,302.000 oz  2,000 kilobars

 

 

 

total deposit:  321,510.000 oz

 

we had 2 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks: 76,723.41 oz

ii) Out of HSBC: 13,173.600  oz

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  89,897.010 oz

We had 2  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 1 //    

customer to dealer:

 

Manfra:  51,505.902 oz

adjusted from the customer to dealer.

 

 

 

The front month of JULY registered a total of 864 oi contracts FOR a LOSS of 406 contracts. We had 552 notices served on MONDAY so we GAINED  another strong 147 contracts or an additional 14,700 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into London based forwards.

 

 

Next comes August another strong delivery month and here the OI FELL by A RATHER SMALLISH 1563  contracts DOWN to 380,303 contracts, as we begin our countdown to first day notice.

Sept saw another addition of 46 contracts to stand at 108.  Oct GAINED 805 contracts up to 37,274.

 

We had 658 notices filed today for 65,800 oz

 

FOR THE JULY 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 536 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 658 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 181 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 54 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5631) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JULY (864 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (658 x 100 oz per contract) equals 583,700 OZ OR 18.155 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (5631 x 100 oz + (864 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (658) x 100 oz which equals 583,700 oz standing OR 18.155 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE record amount for gold standing for a JULY delivery month (a  non active delivery month).

We gained 147 contracts or an additional 14,700 oz will stand at the comex.

We are now witnessing an increase in queue jumping on a daily basis. Sooner or later they will be running out of metal to supply our longs.

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

312,441.780 oz PLEDGED  JUNE 24// 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.036 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

 

657,424.187 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/july 2               20.448 tonnes

total pledged gold:  1,156,503.227 oz                                     35.97 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 365.80 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS ie. 18.155 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  12,917,055.072 oz or 401.77 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (SOME  DELETED JUNE 24 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  312,441.780 oz (or 9.718 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    DELETED:   JULY 7.2020
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  DELETED
g) pledged gold at Brinks: 657,424.187 oz added which cannot be settled:  20.448 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,156,503.227 oz or 35.97 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 11,760552.0  (365.80 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  11,760,552.0 (365.80 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  19,582,269.640 oz (609.09 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   32,969,572.328 oz 1025.49 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  899.15 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of April 2018. and it continues to present day.  Thus 24 data entry points.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.  Gold owners are very clear people.  They would know full well that

the gold at the comex is unallocated and that they would not be stupid enough to keep their gold at the comex especially in the registered category once deliveries are asked upon. If physical gold was present it would be have removed from the comex… It shows there is no gold at the comex.  They are just trading in sticky paper.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

JULY 7/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2115 CONTRACTS FROM 167,591 UP TO 169,706 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,384 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS DUE TO;   1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A SMALL DECREASE AMOUNT OF  SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE JULY CONTRACT MONTH ,  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

WE STILL HAVE A HUMONGOUS AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JULY.

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 483 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 483 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 483 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN  OF 2115  CONTRACTS TO THE 483 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 2598 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 13.130 MILLION  OZ OCCURRED WITH THE 24 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///

 

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 24 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 483 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

JULY 7/2020

JULY SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 599,861.630 oz
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
381,795.820 oz
Brinks

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
601,535.430 oz
CNT
Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
213
CONTRACT(S)
(1,065,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3188 contracts
 15,940,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  13,253 contracts

66,265,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 1 deposit into the dealer:
i) Into the dealer: Brinks:  381,795.820 oz

total dealer deposits: 381,795.820 oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii) Into CNT:  600,534.530 oz

iii) Into Delaware: 1000.900 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.744 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.53% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/324.996 million

 

total customer deposits today:  601,535.450    oz

we had 1 withdrawals:

i) Out of CNT:  599,861.630  oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 601,535.430   oz

We had 0 adjustments

 

 

total dealer silver: 126.641 million

total dealer + customer silver:  324.996 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The front month of July has an open interest of  3401 contracts, as we lost 132 contracts.  We had 28 notices served on MONDAY, so we LOST a tiny 104 contracts or an additional 520,000 oz will NOT stand in this active delivery month of July as they received a London based forward and a fiat bonus for their effort.. They boys seem to have a problem serving upon our longs at the comex.

 

 

The next month after July is the non active month of  August and here  sees its open interest FELL by 33 contracts DOWN to 689

The big September contract month sees a GAIN of 1781 contracts UP to 134,377.

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JULY 2020. contract month is represented by 213 contract(s) FOR 1,065,000, oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 13,253 x 5,000 oz = 66,265,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY.(3401) and the number of notices served upon today 213 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JULY/2019 contract month: 13,253 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (3401)- number of notices served upon today (213) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month.equals 82,205,000 oz.  (A WHOPPER )

WE LOST 104 CONTRACTS OR 520,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND FOR DELIVERY AS THERE SEEMS TO BE SCARCITY OF SILVER.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 30,656 CONTRACTS // volume extremely poor/

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 68,644.,CONFIRMED VOLUME//volume   low/

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 68,644 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 343 million  OZ  49.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO+ 0.10% ((JULY 7/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISE TO +0.20% to NAV:   (JULY 7/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into POSITIVE/ 0.10%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 17.06 TRADING 17.01///NEGATIVE 0.28

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 30//WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 29/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.61 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $5.03 TODAY: VERY STRANGE: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.46 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1175.39 TONNES

JUNE 25//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.6 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1176.85 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.50 TODAY;  A STRONG 3.21 TONNES ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.25  TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $25.50 TODAY/ANOTHER CRIMINAL PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1166.04 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 23.09 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.31 TONNES

JUNE 19/WITH GOLD UP$16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//; INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 18//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 16//WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $8.80 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 12//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 11//WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 6.55 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1135.05 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1129.50 TONNES

JUNE 9//WITH GOLD UP $16.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.63 TONNES OF GOLD AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1125.48 TONNES

JUNE 8//WITH GOLD UP $18.70 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.10 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1128.11 TONNES

 

JUNE 5//WITH GOLD DOWN $40.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.21 TONNES

JUNE 4//WITH GOLD UP $20.60: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD…A DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1133.37 TONNES

JUNE 3//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.15//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//A DEPOSIT OF 0.78 TONNES OF GLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1129.28 TONNES

JUNE 2//WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1128.40 TONNES

JUNE 1//WITH GOLD UP $1.30//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES OF GOLD//GLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1123.14 TONNES

MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $19.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///GLD INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 28//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS  AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD UP $.10 TODAY: A STRONG 2.34 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1119.05 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

JULY 7/ GLD INVENTORY 1191.47 tonnes*

LAST;  854 TRADING DAYS:   +247.57 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 754 TRADING DAYS://+425.75  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ///

JULY 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.008 MILLION OZ

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.403 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.007 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 466,000 OZ TO PAY FOR STORAGE FEES AND INSURANCE//// AND A LARGE DEPOSIT OF 1.212 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 931,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 24///WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS// NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.473 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 486/454 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 19//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE!!  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 839,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486,454 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 932,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.293 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.261 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.361 MILLION OZ

JUNE 16//WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.118 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.100 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.982  MILLION OZ///

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.269 MILLION OZ AND 1.802 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 481.982 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 11//WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.89 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER  UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.849 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.605 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.849 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE WITHDRAWALS OF 932,000 MILLION OZ AND 1.491 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.240 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 648,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.663  MILLION OZ

JUNE 4//WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

 

JUNE 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 2//WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUMONGOUS 6.686 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 1//WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.56 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 466.629 MILLION OZ//

MAY 29//WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.796 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 463.273 MILLION OZ//

MAY 28//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.660 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.477 MILLION OZ//

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.817 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 7.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

503.871 MILLION OZ.

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

USAGold’s July letter: Gold has had a very good year and it’s only half over

 Section: 

11:46a Tuesday, July 7, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

USAGold’s July newsletter, written by proprietor Mike Kosares, notes gold’s unusual strength during what are supposed to be its summer doldrums. The newsletter also reports the growing belief in gold’s prospects among major investment banks. “Gold,” Kosares writes, “has had a very good year and it’s only half over.”

The newsletter is posted in the clear at USAGold here:

https://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/gold-as-a-lifestyle-decision/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

Andrew to me:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FrKC5BSmo4

Lots of excellent feedback.

Best

Andrew

Attachments area

Preview YouTube video Episode 15: Live from the Vault – Featuring Andrew Maguire & Harvey Organ

Episode 15: Live from the Vault – Featuring Andrew Maguire & Harvey Organ

end

Atlanta Fed governor Bostic sees the economy teetering: this sends gold northbound

(zero hedge)

Gold Spikes Back Above $1800 After Bostic’s Downbeat Comments

Is ‘bad’ news, good news for precious metals?

Raphael Bostic diverged from Powell’s more optimistic outlook, warning this morning that he is seeing signs of a “levelling off” of the US economy’s recovery.

The Atlanta Fed chief told the Financial Times:

“There are a couple of things that we are seeing and some of them are troubling and might suggest that the trajectory of this recovery is going to be a bit bumpier than it might otherwise.”

Bostic added that he was “trying to figure out whether this levelling off is something that is a more sustained pattern, or just a pause.”

“Given that possibility, to start thinking about what the next relief package should look like.”

His comments appeared to line up with a renewed bid for gold, sending futures quickly back above $1800 as perhaps this means a renewed easing effort by The Fed (whose balance sheet has also leveled out in recent weeks)…

Gold futures hit $1809.70 as we publish – a new cycle high.

Silver is also spiking…

As Ron Paul recently wrote, with lending facilities providing to the Federal Reserve the ability to give money directly to businesses and governments, the Fed is now just one step away from implementing Ben Bernanke’s infamous suggestion that, if all else fails, the Fed can drop money from a helicopter. These interventions will not save the economy. Instead, they will make the inevitable crash more painful.

The next crash can bring about the end of the fiat monetary system. The question is not if the current monetary system ends, but when. The only way Congress can avoid the Fed causing another great depression is to begin transitioning to a free-market monetary system by auditing, then ending, the Fed.

end

J.Johnson//gold and silver report:

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/07/07/the-derailing-train-of-debt-vs-currencies-vs-precious-metals/

The Derailing Train of Debt, vs Currencies, vs Precious Metals

Posted July 7th, 2020 at 9:01 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Great and wonderful Tuesday Morning Folks,

     Precious Metals are rarely allowed a follow thru day after a nice and positive move up is made like yesterday, with Gold now at $1,784.20, down $9.20 after hitting a low of $1,781.20 with the high so far today at $1,797.60. Silver is leading us lower, as usual, with the trade at $18.31 down 27.2 cents after hitting the London low of $18.235 with the high up at $18.68. The US Dollar finally did get overseas support with its value now at 96.90, up 21.9 points after hitting a high of 97.105 with the low at 96.555. Of course, all this happened already, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after Sven the trader, claims “Markets are basically just a liquidity meth lab”…with no earnings growth during the last few years, “it is folly to pretend markets are about anything else but the Fed”. One thing for certain, meth labs and currencies do blow up, as witnessed in our next few paragraphs.

     In Venezuela, Gold value is now priced at 17,819.70 Bolivar taking back 26.96 overnight with Silver at 182.871 showing a drop of 2.247 Bolivar. In Argentina, the Peso has Gold valued at 126,242.61 showing a gain of 134.27 with Silver down 12.22 A-Peso’s with the price at 1,295.51. Gold’s price in Turkey now sits at 12,251.21 Lira, showing a reduction of 19.81 with Silver losing 1.559 T-Lira with the last trade at 125.725.

      Here are some charts to ponder upon, Gold’s price under the Venezuela’s Bolivar rallied 502,617.91% in 3 years’ time. It’s unfortunate this same site removed the other currencies vs. Gold’s past multiyear rally, because they were substantially huger, much huger, in fact ginormous! Pardon my Trump-ette.  Argentina’s Peso only shows a 115.52% gain since last year, here is a chart between the Argentine Peso and US Dollar where the currency values are many % points higher past that 1 year period. Btw, the Argentine Peso is our highest printed blow up currency to date. Turkey’s Lira has also fallen against the US Dollar which also means Gold price rise was substantial as well. This is why we believe the prices of precious metals, under our dollar, just may meet, or exceed, these past facts as everything unwinds.

      July Silver Delivery Demands now stand at 3,401 fully paid for 5,000-ounce contracts and with a price range between $18.26 and $18.22 with the last buy at the high, proving a drop of 132 in the demand count since yesterday’s posts and with a Volume of 78 already up on the board. Yesterday’s activity happened between $18.64 and $18.21 with the last buy at $18.53 with the close lower at $18.504. The fear is rising and so is the Open Interest in Silver as another 2,117 more shorts had to be added yesterday or today the price would be higher with the total count now at 169,735 Overnighters going against the physicals.

      July Gold’s Delivery Demands now totals 861 fully paid for 100-ounce contracts proving a drop of 409 receipts either getting filled here at the Comex or EFP’d over to London, with this mornings trading range between $1,789.30 and $1,784.90 with the last buy at the low and with a Volume of 178 already up on the board. The fear is also showing up behind the price in Gold as well, as the Open Interest gained another 3,079 more short contracts in order to supply liquidity, bringing the early morning total to 559,945 Overnighters.

      To add more reasons to the fear trading in the markets, the U.S. Mint is upping its coin production, after shortages of stamped coins have been reported in the U.S., and after purchases dropped off until the CCP19 bio got out. The second half of 2020, the Mint estimates an increase production to 1.2 billion coins in June and 1.35 billion coins per month for the rest of the year– which would add up to a projected total of 14.2 billion coins produced in 2020. This helps point out the idea that people are leaving the crime ridden investment arenas where the regulatory bodies are equally as guilty as the perpetrators, and as things start to heat up in the failed debt markets, which leads right to Currency Devaluations, which leads right to Precious Metals Rising, like they did in our emerging markets currency watch.

      Here’s a good thread of closing thoughts that can only be answered in time; Is it possible the Ginormous Precious Metals Deliveries inside our July demand count, is the US mint itself? Is this proof their normal supply chain got disrupted because of a lab-designed-bio that shut down a world for 60 days? Demand is Demand, and the US Mint is required to meet the physical demands, and here we are.

      Nothing can stop this derailing train of debt vs. currencies vs. precious metals. Yet those that hold the physicals, have a much better chance of retaining their purchasing power, while the world observes how much has to be printed in order to pay off a debt, that has been piled high to a level of uncollectable.

      Stay positive no matter what, it’s food for the soul in times like these. Have a smile on your face and a prayer for all, and as always …

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

More J.Johnson content is available with purchase of a JSMineset subscription.

end

This is going to hurt production:  Cadelco is the largest copper mine in the world.  It also produces some molybdenum, silver and gold.

(Bloomberg)

Thousands of Copper Workers Have Fallen Ill in Chile (CORONAVIRUS)

Mines have been attempting to keep their workers safe without forgoing too much output by postponing non- essential activities such as maintenance and construction work. Fewer workers on site mean less risk of infection.

But cases keep rising, and unions and local politicians are calling for tighter restrictions. With Chilean supply risk growing at a time of recovering Chinese demand, the price of copper is back to near where it started the year.

Codelco’s hardest hit mines are El Teniente and Chuquicamata, with 872 and 571 cases, respectively, as of July 1, according to the union.

The state behemoth has halted development projects at El Teniente, its largest mine, adding to other curtailments and shift-pattern changes. At Chuquicamata, Codelco suspended smelting and sharply reduced refining. BHP Group announced plans last week to scale back its Cerro Colorado mine.

While Chile managed to maintain output at high levels in May, the first clear view into how it fared in June comes on Tuesday, with monthly export data…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07- 06/thousands-of-copper-workers-have-fallen-ill-in-top- miner-chile?srnd=markets-vp

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0257/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0204   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 12.46 POINTS OR 0.37%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 363.50 POINTS OR 1.38%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 99.75 POINTS OR 0.44%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED MOSTLY RED (EXCEPT ITALY)/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 96.93/Euro FALLS TO 1.1286

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.70/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 40.21 and Brent: 42.83

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.42%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.25% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.43%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.67: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.11

3k Gold at $1778.35 silver at: 18.12   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 17/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.99

3m oil into the 40 dollar handle for WTI and 42 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.70 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9427 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0641 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.42%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.68% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.43%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.8656..

Futures Fall As Europe Slides, Chinese Media Talks Back Rally

One day after a torrid ramp in Chinese stocks sent US futures surging and the Nasdaq hit a fresh all time high, on Tuesday Emini index futures slipped following the benchmark S&P 500 and Nasdaq’s five-day rally, as European stocks slumped after officials warned the economy will take longer to recover and Germany reported weaker-than-expected industrial data, the rally in China fizzled after officials talked back their previous urges to buy stocks, and investors weighed the risks to the economy from tens of thousands of new coronavirus cases nationwide.

 

On Monday, Miami became the latest U.S. coronavirus hot spot to roll back its reopening while Texas registered an all-time high in the number of people hospitalized at any one moment with COVID-19 for the eight straight day. Travel-related stocks fell in premarket trading. United Airlines Holdings and American Airlines were down 3% and 2.8%, respectively. Royal Caribbean Group and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings also dropped about 3% each, even as they announced a joint task force to help develop safety standards for restarting their businesses.

The latest virus news dented bullish sentiment after a surprise surge in the U.S. Services ISM and record job additions in June were among the upbeat data recently that have bolstered views that an economic recovery is underway, helping the Nasdaq close at a record level on Monday and pushing S&P 500 about 45% from its March lows.

Sentiment also reversed in Europe, where all but one of the 19 industry groups in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell, with real estate and technology shares bearing the brunt of the selling after Germany reported far weaker than expected industrial production data. Bayer AG lost 5.5% after its plan for handling future Roundup cancer claims hit a snag.

 

On the other end, BMW rose as much as 1.4%, and was the best performer on the Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts Index, after posting 17% jump in 2Q car sales in China. The index was the only positive segment on broader European share gauge; other gainers as of 12:01pm in Paris include Valeo +1.1%, Faurecia +0.8%, Fiat Chrysler +0.6%, Continental AG +0.5%.

The European Commission gave its starkest warning yet about the impact of the pandemic, with the divergences between richer and poorer countries opening up even further than projected two months ago. Officials now forecast a contraction of 8.7% in the euro area this year, a full percentage point deeper than previously predicted.

Earlier in Asia, while Chinese stocks powered ahead for a sixth day, the rally was at a far slower pace, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising just 0.4% after the 5.7% surge one day earlier, with Maoye Commercial Co Ltd and Hangzhou Jiebai Group posting the biggest advances.

 

China’s rally fizzled after all four major state-owned financial media outlets had front page commentaries on the stock market today, with all articles saying largely the same – calls on market participants to be rational. Most Asian stocks fell, led by energy and utilities, after rising in the last session, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and South Korea’s Kospi Index turning red. Trading volume for MSCI Asia Pacific Index members was 111% above the monthly average for this time of the day. The Topix declined 0.3%, with Tosei and Miyakoshi falling the most.

In rates, Treasuries were largely unchanged across the long-end of the curve following mixed performance of Asia stocks; further rally halted with bunds underperforming ahead of EU4b 5-year EFSF deal pricing and looming Irish supply this week. Treasuries also face supply pressure starting with 3-year note auction at 1pm ET, ahead of 10- and 30-year sales to round off the week. Treasury yields were lower by ~1bp across 20- to 3-year sector, little change rest of the curve; 10-year yields around 0.675% while bunds underperform by 1.5bp, gilts trade broadly inline.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index snapped a five-day losing streak as the global equity rally paused on Tuesday after a strong start to the week. China’s offshore yuan erased gains after briefly strengthening past the 7 per dollar level for the first time since March 17. The offshore yuan weakened 0.14% as of 6:34 p.m. in Hong Kong. It rose as much as 0.24% to 6.9966 against the greenback in morning session, as Chinese stocks rallied before paring gains in afternoon trade. The currency traded little changed in the onshore market after adding 0.27% earlier Tuesday. A rebounding dollar and renewed concerns about the pandemic after an Australian state announced a lockdown contributed to the yuan’s weakening this afternoon, said Gao Qi, an Asian FX strategist at Scotiabank. But the retreat will likely be a “one-off event,” as bullish sentiment in the stock market will continue to support demand for the currency, he said. “The yuan should advance in the coming sessions to reach 6.90 by the end of July,” he said.

The Australian dollar swung lower after the country’s second- most populous state announced a six-week lockdown to control a wave of infections. Leveraged funds initiated short positions ahead of the lock-down announcement, a trader said, with losses extending after Victoria Premier Daniel Andrews announced a longer-than- expected shutdown. “The local media was suggesting four weeks prior to the announcement, and now it’s six weeks,” said Ray Attrill, head of foreign-exchange strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney. “A justifiable knee jerk, albeit small, negative reaction.”

In commodities, oil dropped and iron ore futures jumped. WTI and Brent crude futures remained on the backfoot, if off lows, as the complex tracks broader market sentiment. Furthermore, the European Commission cutting the EZ and EU growth forecasts added to the bearish factors. WTI Aug resides just above the USD 40/bbl (vs. high 40.79/bbl) having tested the level earlier in the session, whilst Brent Sep relinquished its USD 43/bbl (vs. high 43.19/bbl) handle before finding mild support at the psychological 42.50/bbl. Looking ahead, in the absence of virus/China related headlines, participants will be eyeing the release of the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook for any potential revisions to global oil demand given the resurging COVID-19 cases, thereafter, focus will turn to the Private Inventory numbers for short-term volatility. Elsewhere, spot gold has fallen victim to the rising Buck as the yellow metal slid from near-8yr highs of around USD 1787/oz to find some solace around the psychological USD 1775/oz. In terms of base metals, Shanghai copper hit a 2020 high amid supply woes coupled with hopes of a rebounding Chinese economy. Similarly, Dalian iron ore was underpinned by China optimism alongside doubts over the prospected of a recovery in Brazilian iron shipments.

 

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.8% to 3,148.00
  • MXAP down 0.7% to 164.30
  • MXAPJ down 0.8% to 541.83
  • Nikkei down 0.4% to 22,614.69
  • Topix down 0.3% to 1,571.71
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 25,975.66
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,345.34
  • Sensex up 0.05% to 36,505.16
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.03% to 6,012.92
  • Kospi down 1.1% to 2,164.17
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.1% to 367.33
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.7 bps to -0.448%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.1277
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 1.113%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to 0.414%
  • Brent futures down 1% to $42.69/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,777.09
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 97.03

Top Overnight News

  • Europe’s economy will suffer more than previously estimated this year and take longer to recover because of a slow easing of coronavirus restrictions, according to the bloc’s executive arm.
  • China’s equity market is firmly in the spotlight after an almost unprecedented rally that helped lift global stocks to a one-month high.
  • The amount of U.S. bonds and loans trading at distressed levels has increased for a second straight week as corporate borrowers potentially face another round of lockdowns amid a resurgence of the coronavirus.
  • France’s decision to give only temporary security approval for fifth-generation mobile equipment shows the government intends to gradually sideline Huawei Technologies Co., a majority party lawmaker said.

Asian equity markets were somewhat choppy as participants began to second guess the viability of the recent Chinese stocks surge which had already reverberated across global counterparts on Monday to lift all major indices on Wall Street and push the Nasdaq to a fresh record high. ASX 200 (U/C) swung between gains and losses as strength in the mining related sectors was initially offset by early weakness in energy, utilities and financials, while second wave fears concerning Australia’s 2nd largest city of Melbourne and the RBA policy announcement further added to the tentative tone. Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) lagged after Household Spending data showed the largest decline on record and the KOSPI (-0.7%) also failed to hold on to early gains as the initial support in Samsung Electronics following a beat in preliminary Q2 results which eventually wore thin. Hang Seng (-1.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) both extended on the prior day’s stellar rally but are off their best levels with the momentum gradually dissipating amid several bearish factors such as another substantial liquidity drain by the PBoC and with Chinese press calling for rationality in the stock markets, while the recent headlines also continued to add to the ongoing China vs. the West narrative including the warning from China’s Ambassador to the UK that it will have to bear the consequences if it treats China as a hostile country. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally higher amid underperformance in Japanese stocks following the abysmal Household Spending data and with upside also briefly spurred by mostly firmer results at the 30yr JGB auction.

Top Asian News

  • Lebanon’s Economic Crisis Is Spinning Out of Control, Fast
  • Samsung’s Profit Beat May Precede Slowing Chip Sales Growth
  • Australia Warns Citizens They Risk ‘Arbitrary’ Arrest in China
  • SoftBank Hits 20-Year High With $68 Billion Climb Out of Nadir

European stocks have continued to bleed [Euro Stoxx 50 -1.3%], as the mostly positive APAC sentiment dissipated when European players entered the fray. Downside in futures was initially seen overnight as the optimism over China’s recent performance fizzled out amid rising reported cases, which led to the Australian State Premier imposing a six-week lockdown on Melbourne, whilst case numbers remained heightened in other parts of Asia. Furthermore, the European Commission cutting its 2020 and 2021 growth forecasts, due to less swift than expected reopening, only dampened the mood. As such, major bourses trade with broad-based losses of some 1%, but in the periphery, Italy’s FTSE MIB (-0.3%) fares slightly better as losses in banking names were somewhat cushioned by reports the ECB’s Funding to Italian Banks in June rose to EUR 345.226bln vs. EUR 290.963bln in May, although reports noted that the ECB is to consider asking banks to withhold dividend for longer. Sectors remain in negative territory with no clear risk-tone to be derived on that front as cyclicals and defensives remain mixed. Delving deeper into the sectors, a similar performance, but Travel & Leisure resides among the laggard amid the aforementioned dampened sentiment regarding reopening economies. In terms of individual movers, Wirecard (-14%) extended on losses, with reports also noting that payment group Mastercard was warned about Wirecard’s links to an alleged laundering network around four years ago. Micro Focus (-10.3%) holds its place as a laggard after reporting an impairment charge of USD 922.2mln in H1. Bayer (-7%) shares remain pressured after a U.S. judge questioned the Co’s proposed settlement to deal with future claims regarding its weedkiller. On the flip-side, BMW (+1.0%) nursed opening losses after a trading update in which, despite a H1 YY sales decline of 23%, noted that Q2 China sales have exceed the prior and are seeing initial signs of recovery in some markets as of end-Q2. Finally, in terms of commentary, Blackrock has downgraded US equities on risk of fading fiscal stimulus whilst upgrading Europe to overweight.

Top European News

  • Europe Sees Deeper Slump With Fresh Warning on Uneven Virus Hit
  • Hungary Posts Biggest Increase in Coronavirus Cases in a Month
  • France Begins to Sideline Huawei From Its Mobile Networks
  • Macron Picks a Government to Rebuild France’s Economy

In FX, a further erosion of bullish risk sentiment has helped the Dollar regain composure and its status as a safe haven following less pronounced gains in Chinese equities overnight and a more mixed session for APAC bourses overall. Hence, the index is back on the 97.000 handle from a low of 96.565 at one stage on Monday and extending recovery gains on the back of a much better than expected services ISM survey.

  • AUD – The Aussie is bearing the brunt of the turnaround in risk assets and heightened 2nd wave COVID-19 concerns as Melbourne extends anti-virus measures amidst another rise in cases, with Aud/Usd reversing sharply from just shy of the 0.6900 level towards 0.6920 alongside Usd/CNH bouncing from a fraction below 7.0000. For the record, no surprises from the RBA that reaffirmed wait-and-see guidance, but clearly the economic outlook will be adversely impacted by the aforementioned outbreak in the state of Victoria.
  • NZD/EUR/JPY/CAD/CHF/NOK/SEK/GBP – All unwinding more of their recent gains relative to the Greenback, as the Kiwi retreats from around 0.6580 to 0.6520 irrespective of a modest improvement in NZIER Q2 confidence, while the Euro has relinquished 1.1300+ status to test the resolve of decent option expiry interest between 1.1265-75 (1.5 bn). However, the Yen is still pivoting 107.50 and Loonie holding above 1.3600 post-weaker than forecast Japanese household spending data and pre-Canadian Ivey PMIs. Elsewhere, the Franc is hovering circa 0.9450 and 1.0650 vs the single currency, Eur/Nok is near 10.6500 in wake of a steeper decline in Norwegian manufacturing output and Eur/Sek is straddling 10.4500 even though Swedish ip and orders were mixed. Elsewhere, Cable has lost grip of 1.2500 yet again, albeit finding underlying bids ahead of 1.2450 and support some 10 pips below.
  • EM – Broad deterioration on the downturn in risk appetite, but the Rand underperforming following a more pronounced than anticipated fall in SA consumer morale.

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures remain on the backfoot, albeit off lows, as the complex tracks broader market sentiment, as participants regain focus on rising COVID-19 infection rates which prompted the re-imposition of lockdown measures in some cities, whilst others see their gradual easing plans hindered. Furthermore, the European Commission cutting the EZ and EU growth forecasts added to the bearish factors. WTI Aug resides just above the USD 40/bbl (vs. high 40.79/bbl) having tested the level earlier in the session, whilst Brent Sep relinquished its USD 43/bbl (vs. high 43.19/bbl) handle before finding mild support at the psychological 42.50/bbl. Looking ahead, in the absence of virus/China related headlines, participants will be eyeing the release of the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook for any potential revisions to global oil demand given the resurging COVID-19 cases, thereafter, focus will turn to the Private Inventory numbers for short-term volatility. Elsewhere, spot gold has fallen victim to the rising Buck as the yellow metal slid from near-8yr highs of around USD 1787/oz to find some solace around the psychological USD 1775/oz. In terms of base metals, Shanghai copper hit a 2020 high amid supply woes coupled with hopes of a rebounding Chinese economy. Similarly, Dalian iron ore was underpinned by China optimism alongside doubts over the prospected of a recovery in Brazilian iron shipments.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 4,500, prior 5,046
  • 9am: Fed’s Bostic Takes Part in Webinar on Economy
  • 1pm: Fed’s Quarles Makes Financial Stability Board Remarks
  • 2pm: Fed’s Daly and Barkin Takes Part in NABE Talk on Economy

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It was Sports Day yesterday at school and like all major sporting events at the moment it was behind closed doors. Maisie told us she won a race but wasn’t particularly specific as to which one. I’m hoping it was the straight sprint but it could obviously be the egg and spoon, beanbag, or wheelbarrow races. In practice over the last month she hasn’t come first in any of the races so I’m proud she’s a big match performer. No point wasting energy when it doesn’t matter. Hopefully lots of ice cream wasn’t on the banned substance list or the medal may eventually be stripped.

The main story in markets yesterday was a race towards a new record for the NASDAQ and a fifth successive rise for the S&P 500 for the first time since December. By the end of the session, the S&P was up +1.59%, with the NASDAQ (+2.21%) closing at an all-time high, something that caught the attention of President Trump, who tweeted about the fact not long after the US session opened. It was one of the quietest days in quite some time for the S&P. After the large overnight move, the index traded within a 27pt range the rest of the day compared to the 55pt average daily range over the last month. In fact, the S&P has only traded within a 27pt range for the entire day 4 other times since it was at all-time highs on February 19. The NASDAQ’s new record was assisted by Amazon, which rose by +5.77% to its own record high, with the company’s share price climbing above $3,000 for the first time thanks to an incredibly strong +65.44% YTD performance. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 was up +1.58% at its highest level in nearly a month. Banks (+3.89%) and Autos (+2.56%) led the index higher, as there continues to be a strong value and cyclical theme to the European equity recovery.

The risk-on move was given some added fuel after the ISM non-manufacturing index from the US came in at a much stronger-than-expected 57.1 (vs. 50.2 consensus), a number that was above every estimate on Bloomberg’s survey. And this also comes after last week’s manufacturing ISM rose to 52.6. That said, it’s worth noting that the employment number was not as strong, at just 43.1 (up from May’s 31.8), and already the rise in cases in many US states has led to a reversal in the mobility data, which presents a serious downside risk when it comes to the economic recovery.

The last bit of fuel for yesterday’s US move was word out of Washington D.C. that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell foresees Congress passing another round of fiscal stimulus by the end of this month. The Senator had been fairly circumspect on wanting to see whether the economy needed further action before increasing federal spending, but signaled yesterday that it is indeed needed, saying “This is not over. We are seeing a resurgence in a lot of states… I think the country needs one last boost.” Senate Republicans have called a $3.5trl Democrat-sponsored bill that passed the House in May a nonstarter and are assembling a package with closer to $1trl in total spending.

Asian markets are trading a bit more mixed this morning with the Nikkei (-0.45%) and Kospi (-0.27%) down while in contrast the Hang Seng (+0.12%), ASX (+0.68%) and Shanghai Comp (+1.32%) are up. The CSI 300 is also up +1.82% so there’s been little let up in the rally for Chinese equities and that comes despite China’s Securities Times striking a slight more balanced tone overnight by running a story suggesting that investors should be mindful of potential risks and not use the market as a way to make a fortune. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.18% and crude oil prices are down c. -0.30%. In terms of data out this morning, Japan’s May household spending fell by -16.2% yoy (vs. -11.8% expected), the biggest fall in data going back to 2001. This was even as businesses began to reopen and more people ventured out after a nationwide state of emergency was lifted.

Here in the UK, details of Chancellor Sunak’s speech tomorrow are emerging slowly with Bloomberg reporting overnight that he will announce GBP3bn of investments into environmental projects. The treasury has already said that the Chancellor will also announce GBP1.6bn of measures for arts and culture sector as well as spending of c. GBP1bn on tripling the number of traineeships nationwide and doubling the number of work coaches in job centers.

In other overnight news, Hong Kong asserted broad new police powers including warrant-less searches, online surveillance and property seizures under the new security law with City’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam saying that “This law will be enforced very stringently and people’s concerns will be eased.” Lam also reaffirmed that much of the implementation of the law would be managed in secret, saying that a committee created to oversee it wouldn’t release details from future meetings.

Moving on. When it comes to the coronavirus, yesterday saw the typical slower Monday rise in new cases across many US states due to weekend effects. However the more concerning news for the country is that more states are seeing effective transmission rates (Rt) above 1.0 than in recent weeks. As of yesterday, rtlive estimated that 41 of the 50 states had an Rt value over 1.0, compared to roughly 30 over the past 2 weeks. There is a large amount of uncertainty however, as only one state has a confidence interval entirely under 1.0 (Connecticut) while just three have intervals entirely over 1.0 (WY, WI, MT), though Florida is very close. Specifically cases in Florida rose by a further 3.2% yesterday, but well under the weekly average of 5.1%. Monday has recently seen the week’s lowest daily rise in cases so we would expect to see a sharper rise over the coming days. A similar story emerged in Arizona where new cases rose by 3.4%, below the 4.1% 7 day average. The state also released confirmation that 61% of total cases involve people under 44 years old.

Obviously we need to track the data carefully over the next couple of days as they’ll likely be some catch up from the long weekend in the US. For now you can see the latest state of play in our daily case and fatality tables by clicking “view report” at the top. This also shows that India is now the third most infected country, with confirmed cases nearly at 700K.

Another asset class that did well yesterday was commodities, with Brent Crude up +0.70% near a 4-month high, copper rising a further +1.19% to reach a fresh 5-month high, and gold rising +0.49% to close at a 7-year high. Meanwhile in fixed income, there was a continued narrowing in sovereign bond spreads following last week’s moves. Indeed, the spread of Greek 10yr yields over bunds was down by -1.2bps to 158bps, its lowest level since worries about the pandemic in Europe began in earnest in late February. Core bond yields edged slightly higher however, with 10yr Treasuries up +0.7bps.

Looking at Europe’s data releases yesterday, the main item was the Euro Area retail sales print for May, which surpassed expectations with a +17.8% increase, even if this is still down -5.1% on a year-on-year basis. Over in Germany, factory orders rose by a less-than-expected +10.5% in May (vs. +15.4% expected), with the year-on-year number still down -29.3%. Finally, we got the construction PMIs from Germany and the UK. The German reading only saw a small increase to 41.3, but in the UK there was a big jump to 55.3 (vs. 28.9 in May), its strongest reading since July 2018.

To the day ahead now, and the data highlights include German industrial production and Italian retail sales for May, along with the US JOLTS job openings for the same month. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bostic, Daly and Barkin, along with the BoE’s Haldane.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 12.46 POINTS OR 0.37%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 363.50 POINTS OR 1.38%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 99.75 POINTS OR 0.44%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .01%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0257 /Oil UP TO 40.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 42.83 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0257 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0204 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED //CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA VS USA

Niall Ferguson:  a very important commentary explaining that China and the USA are already in Cold War ii

(Niall  Ferguson/Bloomberg)

Niall Ferguson: China Has Already Declared Cold War On US

Authored by Niall Ferguson, op-ed via Bloomberg.com,

America and China Are Entering the Dark Forest

To know what the Chinese are really up to, read the futuristic novels of Liu Cixin.

“We are in the foothills of a Cold War.”Those were the words of Henry Kissinger when I interviewed him at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Beijing last November.

The observation in itself was not wholly startling. It had seemed obvious to me since early last year that a new Cold War — between the U.S. and China — had begun. This insight wasn’t just based on interviews with elder statesmen. Counterintuitive as it may seem, I had picked up the idea from binge-reading Chinese science fiction.

First, the history.

What had started out in early 2018 as a trade war over tariffs and intellectual property theft had by the end of the year metamorphosed into a technology war over the global dominance of the Chinese company Huawei Technologies Co. in 5G network telecommunications; an ideological confrontation in response to Beijing’s treatment of the Uighur minority in China’s Xinjiang region and the pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong; and an escalation of old frictions over Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Nevertheless, for Kissinger, of all people, to acknowledge that we were in the opening phase of Cold War II was remarkable.

Since his first secret visit to Beijing in 1971, Kissinger has been the master-builder of that policy of U.S.-Chinese engagement which, for 45 years, was a leitmotif of U.S. foreign policy. It fundamentally altered the balance of power at the mid-point of the Cold War, to the disadvantage of the Soviet Union. It created the geopolitical conditions for China’s industrial revolution, the biggest and fastest in history. And it led, after China’s accession to the World Trade Organization, to that extraordinary financial symbiosis which Moritz Schularick and I christened “Chimerica” in 2007.

How did relations between Beijing and Washington sour so quickly that even Kissinger now speaks of Cold War? 

The conventional answer to that question is that President Donald Trump has swung like a wrecking ball into the “liberal international order” and that Cold War II is only one of the adverse consequences of his “America First” strategy.

Yet that view attaches too much importance to the change in U.S. foreign policy since 2016, and not enough to the change in Chinese foreign policy that came four years earlier, when Xi Jinping became general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party. Future historians will discern that the decline and fall of Chimerica began in the wake of the global financial crisis, as a new Chinese leader drew the conclusion that there was no longer any need to hide the light of China’s ambition under the bushel that Deng Xiaoping had famously recommended.

When Middle America voted for Trump four years ago, it was partly a backlash against the asymmetric payoffs of engagement and its economic corollary, globalization. Not only had the economic benefits of Chimerica gone disproportionately to China, not only had its costs been borne disproportionately by working-class Americans, but now those same Americans saw that their elected leaders in Washington had acted as midwives at the birth of a new strategic superpower — a challenger for global predominance even more formidable, because economically stronger, than the Soviet Union.

It is not only Kissinger who recognizes that the relationship with Beijing has soured. Orville Schell, another long-time believer in engagement, recently conceded that the approach had foundered “because of the CCP’s deep ambivalence about the way engaging in a truly meaningful way might lead to demands for more reform and change and its ultimate demise.”

Conservative critics of engagement, meanwhile, are eager to dance on its grave, urging that the People’s Republic be economically “quarantined,” its role in global supply chains drastically reduced. There is a spring in the step of the more Sinophobic members of the Trump administration, notably Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, deputy National Security Adviser Matt Pottinger and trade adviser Peter Navarro. For the past three and a half years they have been arguing that the single most important thing about Trump’s presidency was that he had changed the course of U.S. policy towards China, a shift from engagement to competition spelled out in the 2017 National Security Strategy. The events of 2020 would seem to have vindicated them.

The Covid-19 pandemic has done more than intensify Cold War II. It has revealed its existence to those who last year doubted it. The Chinese Communist Party caused this disaster — first by covering up how dangerous the new virus SARS-CoV-2 was, then by delaying the measures that might have prevented its worldwide spread.

Yet now China wants to claim the credit for saving the world from the crisis it caused. Liberally exporting cheap and not wholly reliable ventilators, testing kits and face masks, the Chinese government has sought to snatch victory from the jaws of a defeat it inflicted. The deputy director of the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s information department has gone so far as to endorse a conspiracy theory that the coronavirus originated in the U.S. and retweet an article claiming that an American team had brought the virus with them when they participated in the World Military Games in Wuhan last October.

Just as implausible are Chinese claims that the U.S. is somehow behind the recurrent waves of pro-democracy protest in Hong Kong. The current confrontation over the former British colony’s status is unambiguously Made in China. As Pompeo has said, the new National Security Law Beijing imposed on Hong Kong last Tuesday effectively “destroys” the territory’s semi-autonomy and tears up the 1984 Sino-British joint declaration, which guaranteed that Hong Kong would retain its own legal system for 50 years after its handover to People’s Republic in 1997.

In this context, it is not really surprising that American public sentiment towards China has become markedly more hawkish since 2017, especially among older votersChina is one of few subjects these days about which there is a genuine bipartisan consensus. It is a sign of the times that Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s campaign clearly intends to portray their man as more hawkish on China than Trump. (Former National Security Adviser John Bolton’s new memoir is grist to their mill.) On Hong Kong, Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic speaker of the House, is every bit as indignant as Pompeo.

I have argued that this new Cold War is both inevitable and desirable, not least because it has jolted the U.S. out of complacency and into an earnest effort not to be surpassed by China in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other strategically crucial technologies. Yet there remains, in academia especially, significant resistance to my view that we should stop worrying and learn to love Cold War II.

At a forum last week on World Order after Covid-19, organized by the Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins University, a clear majority of speakers warned of the perils of a new Cold War.

  • Eric Schmidt, the former chairman of Google, argued instead for a “rivalry-partnership” model of “coop-etition,” in which the two nations would at once compete and cooperate in the way that Samsung and Apple have done for years.
  • Harvard’s Graham Allison, the author of the bestselling “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?”, agreed, giving as another example the 11th-century “frenmity” between the Song Emperor of China and the Liao kingdom on China’s northern border. The pandemic, Allison argued, has made “incandescent the impossibility of identifying China clearly as either foe or friend. Rivalry-partnership may sound complicated, but life is complicated.”
  • “The establishment of a productive and predictable US/China relationship,” wrote John Lipsky, formerly of the International Monetary Fund, “is a sine qua non for strengthening the institutions of global governance.” The last Cold War had cast a “shadow of a global holocaust for decades,” observed James Steinberg, a former deputy secretary of state. “What can be done to create a context to limit the rivalry and create space for cooperation?”
  • Elizabeth Economy, my colleague at the Hoover Institution, had an answer: “The United States and China could … partner to address a global challenge,” namely climate change. Tom Wright of the Brookings Institution took a similar line: “Focusing only on great power competition while ignoring the need for cooperation will not actually give the United States an enduring strategic advantage over China.”

All this sounds eminently reasonable, apart from one thing. The Chinese Communist Party isn’t Samsung, much less the Liao kingdom.

Rather — as was true in Cold War I, when (especially after 1968) academics tended to be doves rather than hawks — today’s proponents of “rivalry-partnership” are overlooking the possibility that the Chinese aren’t interested in being frenemies. They know full well this is a Cold War, because they started it.

To be sure, there are also Chinese scholars who lament the passing of engagement. The economist Yu Yongding recently joined Kevin Gallagher of Boston University to argue for reconciliation between Washington and Beijing. Yet that is no longer the official view in Beijing. When I first began talking publicly about Cold War II at conferences last year, I was surprised that no Chinese delegates contradicted me. In September, I asked one of them — the Chinese head of a major international institution — why that was. “Because I agree with you!” he replied with a smile.

As a visiting professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, I have seen for myself the ideological turning of the tide under Xi. Academics who study taboo subjects such as the Cultural Revolution find themselves subject to investigations or worse. Those who take a more combative stance toward the West get promoted.

Yan Xuetong, dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua, recently argued that Cold War II, unlike Cold War I, will be a purely technological competition, without proxy wars and nuclear brinkmanship. Yao Yang, dean of the National School of Development at Peking University, was equally candid in an interview with the Beijing Cultural Review, published on April 28.

“To a certain degree we already find ourselves in the situation of a New Cold War,” he said. “There are two basic reasons for this. The first is the need for Western politicians to play the blame game” about the origins of the pandemic.

“The next thing,” he added, “is that now Westerners want to make this into a ‘systems’ question, saying that the reason that China could carry out such drastic control measures [in Hubei province] is because China is not a democratic society, and this is where the power and capacity to do this came from.”

This, however, is weak beer compared with the hard stuff regularly served up on Twitter by the pack leader of the “wolf warrior” diplomats, Zhao Lijian. “The Hong Kong Autonomy Act passed by the US Senate is nothing but a piece of scrap paper,” he tweeted on Monday, in response to the congressional retaliation against China’s  new Hong Kong security law. By his standards, this was understatement.

The tone of the official Chinese communiqué released after Pompeo’s June 17 meeting in Hawaii with Yang Jiechi, the director of the Communist Party’s Office of Foreign Affairs, was vintage Cold War. On the persecution of the Uighurs, for example, it called on “the US side to respect China’s counter-terrorism and de-radicalization efforts, stop applying double standards on counter-terrorism issues, and stop using Xinjiang-related issues as a pretext to interfere in China’s internal affairs.”

And this old shrillness, so reminiscent of the Mao Zedong era, is not reserved for the U.S. alone. The Chinese government lashes out at any country that has the temerity to criticize it, from Australia — “gum stuck to the bottom of China’s shoe” according to the editor of the Party-controlled Global Times — to India to the U.K.

Those who hope to revive engagement, or at least establish frenmity with Beijing, underestimate the influence of Wang Huning, a member since 2017 of the Standing Committee of the Politburo, the most powerful body in China, and Xi’s most influential adviser. Back in August 1988, Wang spent six months in the U.S. as a visiting scholar, traveling to more than 30 cities and nearly 20 universities. His account of that trip, “America against America,” (published in 1991) is a critique — in places scathing — of American democracy, capitalism and culture (racial division features prominently in the third chapter).

Yet the book that has done the most to educate me about how China views America and the world today is, as I said, not a political text, but a work of science fiction. “The Dark Forest” was Liu Cixin’s 2008 sequel to the hugely successful “Three-Body Problem.” It would be hard to overstate Liu’s influence in contemporary China: He is revered by the Shenzhen and Hangzhou tech companies, and was officially endorsed as one of the faces of 21st-century Chinese creativity by none other than … Wang Huning.

“The Dark Forest,” which continues the story of the invasion of Earth by the ruthless and technologically superior Trisolarans, introduces Liu’s three axioms of “cosmic sociology.”

First, “Survival is the primary need of civilization.” Second, “Civilization continuously grows and expands, but the total matter in the universe remains constant.” Third, “chains of suspicion” and the risk of a “technological explosion” in another civilization mean that in space there can only be the law of the jungle. In the words of the book’s hero, Luo Ji:

The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost … trying to tread without sound … The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. If he finds other life — another hunter, an angel or a demon, a delicate infant or a tottering old man, a fairy or a demigod — there’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them. In this forest, hell is other people … any life that exposes its own existence will be swiftly wiped out.

Kissinger is often thought of (in my view, wrongly) as the supreme American exponent of Realpolitik. But this is something much harsher than realism. This is intergalactic Darwinism.

Of course, you may say, it’s just sci-fi. Yes, but “The Dark Forest” gives us an insight into something we think too little about: how Xi’s China thinks. It’s not up to us whether or not we have a Cold War with China, if China has already declared Cold War on us. 

Not only are we already in the foothills of that new Cold War; those foothills are also impenetrably covered in a dark forest of China’s devising.

END
What is the real reason for China’s massive market meltup? For two days we have seen the yuan (offshore) rise dramatically. The reason for the intervention by the China Plunge Protection team is the need for a massive amount of USA dollars.  China expects to be cut off by the west because of what China did with the escape of the virus.  It wants to bring foreign capital into the country and thus, the huge gains in the stock market courtesy of their Chinese masters.
(zerohedge)

Is This The Real Reason For China’s Massive Market Meltup?

Now that Hong Kong is facing a creeping monetary boycott by the US, and more importantly, by the US financial system as a result of its de facto annexation by China, a pesky question has emerged: how will China procure those much needed dollars which are oh so critical to keep the Chinese financial system, all $40 trillion of it, functioning smoothly.

While there has been surprisingly little discussion of this critical topic in the financial media, which looking at soaring stocks in China and the US is left with the false impression that all is well, one person who has continued to hammer this topic home has been Rabobank’s Michael Every, who this morning once again raised the alert level over China’s USD access:

Note this South China Morning Post article titled “Time for China to decouple the yuan from US Dollar, former diplomat urges”. Zhou Li, a former deputy director of the CCP’s International Liaison Department is “the latest in a series of voices in China” to warn the USD Weapon is real and “has us by the throat”, will pose an “increasingly severe threat” to Chinese development –USD oil sanctions seen as a key area of vulnerability– and so preparations for gradual decoupling and CNY internationalisation should begin “now”. Li adds China should “give up the illusion” of friendship and instead prepare for full-fledged conflict with the US.

His specific proposal is to increase cross-border payments and clearing, local FX settlement, and maximize CNY usage in industrial supply chains. The problems in internationalizing CNY are manifold, however, which is why the USD weapon exists. The capital account would need to be opened, precipitating a collapse in CNY as money floods out.

So with the natural gateway for more inbound dollars suddenly clogged up, China has to find other, just as effective ways to attract US dollars into its economy: by drawing foreign investors into its stock market. Here is Every again:

To try to counter that, it’s China bubble time again – not just in property, but in stocks: the Shanghai exchange was up 4% at time of writing today, and 7% last week, as Chinese press openly talk up a new bull market –despite a flat economy– going so far as to imply this is part of the struggle between the “world’s powers”, according to Bloomberg: with different percentages, the same dynamic is of course true in the US. Yet for both this is lethal can-kicking at best that only creates far larger problems.

There is just one problem: if Beijing relies on existing inertia it will fail miserably, because as the following Chart of the week from Goldman shows, China-dedicated equity funds saw an 11th consecutive week of net outflows.

And as a result of the substantial outflows, Goldman believes that “underweight positioning may have contributed to the outsized gains in Chinese shares and the Yuan at the start of this week.”

Maybe, but what is far more likely is that Beijing turned on turbo boost in the infamous National Team, aka China’s Plunge Protection Team, which led to a stunning rally in Chinese equities since March, with the CSI300 surging 32% since its Q1 troughs, and 14% in the past 5 trading days, while the Shanghai Composite soared almost 6% on Monday, its biggest one day gain since the bubble of 2015.

So why the massive intervention and ramp of stocks by Beijing officials?

The answer is simple: taking a page of the Robinhood playbook, China is desperate to halt and reverse the massive equity outflows as it urgently needs the flow of US Dollars to reverse into Chinese markets, instead of away from. To do that, it needs to create an initial upward momentum in prices which halts the selling/outflows and prompts a reappraisal of Chinese asset values. Ideally, it will also capture the euphoria of US daytraders who will buy Chinese, not US stocks.

And as we reported this morning, Beijing is clearly on board: realizing that the economy is far weaker than a SHCOMP print of 3,400 will support, Beijing still sent a message to the Chinese population when a front-page editorial in the state-owned China’s Securities Journal said that fostering a “healthy” bull market after the pandemic is now more important to the economy than ever.

Why? Because without the “bull market” the equity outflows would continue, and soon China will run out of dollars, an outcome which would have far more catastrophic financial, monetary and geopolitical consequences for both China and the the entire world than a 2nd (and 3rd and 4th) Covid wave, coupled with a Biden win and a permanently jammed Fed money printer.

And so far it’s working: the Shanghai Composite is up 2% in early trading…

end

CHINA VS USA

Rhetoric between the two increases!!

China Touts “Aircraft Carrier Killer” Missiles As US Supercarriers Operate In South China Sea

China has slammed what it calls the United States flexing its muscles in the South China Sea to try to provoke tensions and conflict among countries of the region. But the Pentagon has called the maneuvers by two supercarriers sent to the region days ago, namely the USS Ronald Reagan and USS Nimitz, an act of standing up “for the right of all nations to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows” and further as a “symbol of resolve”.

Each carrier has 90 or more aircraft and about 6,000 personnel, making it a significant display of force off China’s coast. Given this, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is said to be tracking their movements closely, with Chinese vessels said to be within eyesight of the US carriers.

The carriers have been conducting flight drills since exercises commenced on July 4. Nimitz commander Rear Admiral James Kirk told reporters in a telephone interview: “They have seen us and we have seen them” – in reference to a nearby Chinese flotilla.

 

Aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan is one of two currently operating in the South China Sea.

Interestingly, the US Navy and Chinese state-run newspaper Global Times had an exchange this weekend after on Sunday GT issued a veiled threat hyping Beijing’s advanced missile arsenal. China has a wide selection of anti-aircraft carrier weapons like DF-21D and DF-26 “aircraft carrier killer” missiles, the state-run paper said.

It then said any aircraft carrier movement in the region “is at the pleasure of PLA”.

“And yet, there they are,” the Navy Chief of Information Twitter account posted, saying the US ships “are not intimidated” because their exercises and navigation are “at our discretion”.

The carriers are holding some of the Navy’s largest exercises in recent years in the area, which is frequently beset upon by American destroyers sailing within 12 miles of certain islands developed by China that are the subject of competing international claims.

The exercises also involve four other warships as well, along with round-the-clock fights and missions.

end
The key to the surprise rise in value of Chinese stocks:  it is to entice westerners to enter the casino with their usa dollars!
(zero hedge)

Rabobank: The Key Question Is Why China Decided To Jump-Start Its Stocks Now?

Submitted by Rabobank’s Michael Every

At time of writing the Shanghai stock exchange was up merely 1.8% on the day, quite disappointing after the 5.8% leap yesterday, but still meaning it has gained nearly 14% in just a few of sessions. That’s the best performance since late 2014, just before the same market went on its dizzying 2015 run. The same dizzying run that was overtly and blatantly a state-led bubble: and one that ended in a disastrous crash with all manner of nasty recriminations, including ‘don’t sell!’ off-the-record instructions, and apparent threats of arrest for those short-selling, or even writing negative research reports.

One wonders what the decision-makers at MSCI, who in the total absence of any comprehensive reforms in Chinese stock regulation post-2015 nonetheless decided to increase the country’s global portfolio weighting, are thinking right now. More so with hawkish US politicians already talking about the dangers of US capital being pumped into Chinese markets – and that US rhetoric is not going to get any less hawkish as Hong Kong CEO Carrie Lam introduces sweeping new police powers including warrant-less searches, property seizures, online surveillance, and not allowing people to leave the territory. That as Trump tweeted: “China has caused great damage to the United States and the rest of the world!” yesterday, and as a White House aide stated an executive order on China is apparently imminent.

While this is not an equity-focused, nor specifically China-focused Daily, this scale of market move needs some examination. What is going on? Let’s run through the options quickly:

  • Is it led by Chinese demand? The data say no. We aren’t even back to the pre-Covid trend, and that would not justify a 14% gain.
  • Is it led by Chinese supply? Much more likely – but is there any global demand for that supply? Not at the moment, and increasingly less so going forwards if you listen to the talk about shifts in supply chains out of China. So it’s stock-piling or product-dumping ahead, perhaps.
  • Is it led by lower interest rates? No. There hasn’t been any major easing in China to generate the same lower rates/higher stocks knee-jerk response seen elsewhere. It isn’t able to ease so overtly because it needs to stop capital outflows.
  • Is it led by QE? No. Yet even though Bloomberg today says China isn’t doing QE, look at a country with a 10-12% consolidated fiscal deficit pre-Covid, and perhaps nearer 20% at the moment; ask how it’s being funded (by the PBOC), and how much of that deficit spending flows into infrastructure; and consider that what one sees is quasi-MMTWhich is why China cannot afford to run a current-account deficit without losing control of its quasi-currency peg, or at least needs a net inflow of USD.
  • Has this been a net-inflow/foreign-capital driven rally? No. This is a domestic story…so far – and one that seems engineered in the hope that it will become a foreign-driven rally. In all fairness, it’s not as if other major markets are not seeing blatant ramping from authorities one way or another –Trump uses Twitter to the same effect– or fundamentals-defying trends.

Yet the key question is why China has decided to jump-start its stocks now? Why, when locals will act accordingly and listen to the authorities when they tell them where they are about to get their “guaranteed” minimum 20% annual return; and they follow that smooth, paved path through the financial jungle;…until it all ends in 2015 chaos again. Moreover, why given bond yields are spiking as a result, which a debt-laden economy cannot afford? Why, as punters walk away from Wealth Management Products, pulling the funding rug out from under the feet of many property projects as a result?

Perhaps to jump-start consumption? Yet property is more widely-held than stocks. Perhaps to stop the property bubble getting out of control? If so, stocks are hardly a less dangerous tiger to ride. Perhaps to swap debt for equity? Except bond yields are rising, which hurts most borrowers more than some can gain through stocks. Perhaps to encourage firms to tap unlimited CNY equity capital and not (soon to be limited?) offshore USD debt? Perhaps to help push CNY back to 7.01 to try to ease some of the looming US political pressure on China in that USD regard? Or, as suggested yesterday, if pressure can’t be eased, perhaps to allow for an immediate signal-sending 2.5% fall in CNY without taking it into a range that would suggest to the world that China is no longer master of its own destiny? (And on USD/CNY it isn’t: not while the US holds the sanctions trump card.) Perhaps simply to try to get those USD capital inflows by hook or by crook to keep the game going: “Look, you can’t miss out on this!”?

One might notice that none of the above analysis involves traditional market metrics. That is because we do not have traditional markets, or metrics, and there is nothing market-based about what is happening in this “market”. The far better form of analysis, as above, is to try to play market ‘Cluedo’ (‘Clue’ in the US). “So was it the stock bull-market in China with the quasi-MMT?” Who did it? Who benefits? And who ends up being done in by the lead pipe?

Meanwhile, the RBA today held rates and its yield curve targets, as fully expected, but underlined that FISCAL and monetary support will be needed for some time. What is another term for fiscal and monetary support? It starts with M and ends in T. And there is another M. The RBA also pledged to scale up its bond buying if needed. This implies the massive increase in the Aussie defence budget just pledged will be de facto covered by the RBA. Throw another submarine on the barbie, mate. The RBA will meanwhile “do whatever it takes” to keep the bond market functional: presumably this just means yields staying low, because the Japanese example clearly shows that if you issue lots of public debt, and the central bank buys it, then the central bank eventually becomes the market; so the RBA is saying it is going to keep itself functional.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Robert to me:

 

“21% of companies in Germany fear they will not survive. Similar numbers and in some cases greater similar sentiment exists in other countries.
The totality of damage that has been unleashed upon the world economy is beyond dumb, if it were truly a mistake, but it is deliberate and intended to bring about what is being referred to as the “Great Reset”.
Socialism driven by a diseased thinking that government can cure all ills, has always failed. There is not a single time it has succeeded. Look at Argentina who once around 1902 was as powerful as America or more recently the USSR which crumbled under its’ weight of failure. Or even Spain who has defaulted many a time. And just speak to someone who lived under the yoke of socialism to see how invasive and troubling life was. The reality is that socialism does not work. And the only country and politician standing In the way of this agenda is America and Trump. Like him or not, Trump is a businessman with private interests that extend beyond his tenure in office. He understands that under socialism wealth is something the state always takes as no amount of money is enough. While we can criticize and moan about crony capitalism; crony socialism is far worse.
Often, I write that recovery starts with America. America has been the building block of consumer demand like no other country, in history. And it is that consumption that has built many a country and allowed nations and their people to prosper, either it is Japan, Germany, South Korea or even China. Where would these nations be without a American consumer market ? I know some will write me back to disagree and that is fine. But I ask of you, who else would bought all these consumer items if it were not for America ? And who wants to live under the same colored boot 🥾 that China demonstrates? And yes, America has problems just like every nation has. History often allows nations to cast before its’ history is written and it is so with America.
Not to rebuild this national engine by providing jobs and hope for a more pleasing prosperous future is to deny a consumer economy for the world of manufacturers and growers and thereby lower living standards abroad, for billions of people. And not to rebuild America is to destroy the spirit that has made  America the nation people aspire to get to, the world over. After all it has been a safe harbor for many people the world over. And that would be tragic as socialism would come and many millions would die. As it is many a nation caught up in the grasp of this ideology will suffer the historical consequences of its’ design failure. And many a soul will seek to leave, while they still can. And in days ahead, you will see countries impose both capital and travel restrictions as the failings of socialism bite and governments react, never admitting the error of their ways.
While this tragedy of blanket shutdowns to fulfill a flawed ideological plan plays out, the window of  opportunity exists for America to reinvent itself and its’ industries and capital structures to lead the world away from socialism down a new direction and thus regain dominance in world affairs by being first. Leadership is not accomplished today by sheer might or show of force but by demonstrating principled industrial growth providing products and services that the world needs. Compare this to the building of empty cities and the desired direction will be clear to the poet, the banker, the politician and the public and the socialist .”
 
 
 

Cheers

Robert

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL

Iran is not to happy with this: Israel launches an reconnaissance satellite which will certainly highlight what Iran is doing

(AlMasdarNews)

Israel Challenges Iran By Launching Reconnaissance Satellite Into Space

Via AlMasdarNews.com,

Israel announced on Monday that it had successfully launched a reconnaissance satellite into space in its first experiment in this field. The announcement came from the spokesperson of the Israeli army, Avichay Adraee, who tweeted:

“The Ministry of Defense confirmed that the space administration at the Research and Development Directorate and the Space Industries Authority succeeded by launching the Horizon 16 reconnaissance satellite into space, at four in the morning Jerusalem time.”

 

July 6th Shavit rocket launched while carrying the Ofek 16 reconnaissance satellite. Image source: Israeli Ministry of Defense

Adraee continued: “I am talking about an electric optical survey satellite that is equipped with advanced technical capabilities, and it will be subjected in the near future to a series of tests to determine its suitability and performance level.”

This move by Israel comes just a few months after Iran successfully launched its first satellite into orbit.

In a signal to Israel’s regional enemies, the Israeli Army spokesman issued messages hailing the launch in Arabic and other regional languages:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared to hint at this while hailing the successful launch. He said the launch very much increases our ability to act against Israel’s enemies, near and far alike. It greatly expands our ability to act on land, at sea, in the air and also in space.”

And an Israeli Air Force space program official said of the launch:

“Our network of satellites lets us watch the entire Middle East — and even a bit more than that.”

 

Successful April 22 launch by Iran, via Reuters.

The Iranian launch, which was condemned by the United States and its allies, marked the first time that the Islamic Republic was able to successfully send a satellite into orbit.

end

 

TURKEY/GREECE/CHRISTIAN WORLD

One of the world’s greatest sites is the 6th Century Church of Hagia Sophia in Istanbul.  It has quite a history,  Now the madman Erdogan wants to turn the Hagia Sophia into a mosque.

(zerohedge)

Russia & Greece Slam Turkey For Plans To Turn Hagia Sophia Church Into A Mosque 

Greece and Turkey are once again at odds over the fate of one of Christendom’s largest and oldest churches, built under Byzantine Emperor Justinian in the 6th century, and surviving changing empires throughout history.

The Church of Hagia Sophia in Istanbul was – prior to the Turkish takeover of Byzantium in 1453 – Constantinople’s most famous church and center of the Orthodox Christian world. Under the modern Turkish state it’s gone from mosque to museum to ‘protected’ UNESCO world heritage site, despite still being considered by Greece and Greek visitors, as well as Russian pilgrims, a church.

But now Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and lawmakers are eyeing changing its status back to a mosque, which has outraged Athens. Russia has also chimed in, with both the Kremlin and Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill condemning any potential move to turn Hagia Sophia into a mosque.

 

Hagia Sophia file image, via Greek City Times

“We by all means hope that Hagia Sophia’s status as a world heritage site will be taken into consideration,” a Kremlin spokesman said Monday.

“Of course, this is a world masterpiece beloved by tourists coming to Turkey from all over the world and especially by tourists from Russia who not only recognize Hagia Sophia’s tourist value but also it’s sacred spiritual value,” he added.

Turkey’s top court is said to still be debating the move. There are still multiple tens of thousands of indigenous Christians in Istanbul and in parts of Anatolia, mostly Greek, Syriac, and and some few remnant Armenian Christians. These ancient communities say Erdogan has newly unleashed a war on Turkey’s Christians.

The Russian Orthodox Church slammed the potential Turkish move as “unacceptable” and a “violation of religious freedom”. The statement said: “We can’t go back to the Middle Ages now” — referencing centuries where Ottoman policy severely suppressed Christians throughout Asia Minor.

The controversy has unleashed a storm on social media, which has included those against turning Hagia Sophia into a mosque envisioning it as a church once again:

Erdogan however, has interpreted it as a matter of “asserting Turkey’s sovereignty” over the site. Turkey argues that it can legally do what it wants with monuments and historic places within its sovereign territory.

Mike Pompeo has even weighed in on the side of the Greek government, urging that it be kept as a museum. 

“We urge the government of Turkey to continue to maintain the Hagia Sophia as a museum, as an exemplar of its commitment to respect Turkey’s diverse faith traditions and history, and to ensure it remains accessible to all,” the US Secretary of State said within the last weeks.

Echoing Greek politicians, the leader of the Orthodox Church of Greece, Archbishop Ieronymos II, issued a provocative statement saying of the Turks, “they won’t dare!”

Greek television quoted the top clergyman as saying: “They (the Turks) play whatever games are in hand. This is one more game. I believe they won’t dare.”

Critics of Erdogan and his AKP have long said he and the party have Islamist and neo-Ottoman aspirations. One prominent lawyer and human rights activist with UN Watch commented that:

Turkey now occupies more Arab territories — Syria, Iraq, Libya — than any other country in the world. Yet when the U.N.’s human rights council next week will hold its regular debate on “Occupied Arab Territories,” Turkey’s name won’t be mentioned even once. Isn’t that odd?

Turkey has also lately caused tensions within the NATO alliance, especially over Libya policy and repeat violations of a UN arms embargo.

 

Hagia Sophia in Istanbul, or ancient Constantinople, public domain image.

Turning Hagia Sophia into a mosque after almost a century as a museum would be but one more symbolic provocation, albeit a serious one further worsening Greece-Turkey relations, and risking Moscow’s wrath as well.

Meanwhile, Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople – who represents the Orthodox Church and its some 300 million adherents worldwide, is still in residence in Istanbul. He and his predecessors have been barred from using Hagia Sophia as a place of prayer since the 15th century, though over the years there’s been a few provocative instances where Greek clergy were said to have stealthily entered the now museum to “illegally” conduct Christian worship.

* * *

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/AUSTRALIA//GLOBE

Melbourne Enters 6-Week Lockdown As COVID-19 Cases Surge; Iran Sees Record Daily Deaths: Live Updates

As health officials in Beijing reported 8 new foreign cases of the virus and 15 asymptomatic cases on Tuesday afternoon, Australian health officials and officials in the country’s second-most-populous state of Victoria announced that it would re-enter ‘Phase 3’ lockdown, joining a growing list of major cities – Lisbon, Madrid, Beijing – that have reimposed lockdown measures amid a resurgence in COVID-19 cases.

Just yesterday, Victoria (the home of Melbourne and the surrounding suburbs) and neighboring New South Wales (home to Sydney and the country’s most populous state) announced plans to close borders to hard-hit Victoria, the first time in a century that these borders have been closed.

Cases have been climbing in Australia amid a new outbreak centered in Victoria that officials fear might spread across the country, now that social distancing measures have been largely unwound. Australia reported about 200 new cases on Tuesday, the highest daily total since late March.

 

As part of the new lockdown measures, more than five million residents of Melbourne will be locked down for six weeks beginning Tuesday. The usual exceptions will apply, and the level of enforcement isn’t yet clear.

Though New South Wales has reported more cases overall, Victoria has been the biggest contributor to the country’s tally of new cases since the resurgence began weeks ago.

 

As we await the latest round of US data, India has confirmed that its outbreak has topped 700,000 with 22,252 new infections, becoming just the 4th country to surpass that level. That daily number is down from 24,248 the previous day. The country’s COVID-19 tally now stands at 719,665, while its death toll surpassed the 20,000 mark with 467 new deaths; it now stands at exactly 20,160

In Japan, Tokyo once again confirmed 106 new infections, extending a streak of 100+-case days to six. The capital has urged residents of the capital city to be cautious, and avoid nightlife spots.

The big vaccine news on Tuesday was China’s Sinovac Biotech, which will begin Phase III trials of its coronavirus vaccine candidate in Brazil this month. 9,000 health-care professionals will be involved in the study, which will be conducted in partnership with Brazilian vaccine producer Instituto Butantan. Only two other candidates, including AstraZeneca’s experimental vaccine (developed by researchers at the University of Oxford) along and another one developed by China National Pharmaceutical Group – aka Sinopharm – have made it to these late-stage trials already.

South Korea confirmed 44 new cases on Tuesady, down from 48 a day ago. Total infections reached 13,181 with deaths still at just 285.

In the Middle East, Iran recorded its highest daily number of new COVID-19 deaths with 200 fatalities reported in the past 24 hours. Iran reported 200 new deaths from the coronavirus, the most in a single day since the Middle East’s deadliest outbreak began in February. The previous record was Sunday’s 163 deaths.

“Unfortunately in the past 24 hours we have lost 200 of our compatriots, bringing the total number of victims to 11,931,” health ministry spokeswoman Sima Sadat Lari said on state television.

Another 2,637 people have tested positive for the virus, taking the total official number of cases in Iran to 245,688.

In Africa, South Africa’s confirmed total has surpassed 200,000 as the country continues to post some of the highest daily numbers in the world, as Al Jazeera pointed out.

The health ministry reported 8,971 new cases, bringing the total to 205,721, with nearly 1/3rd in the new hot spot of Gauteng province, which includes Johannesburg and Pretoria.

There are more than 477,000 confirmed cases on the African continent.

end

As I promised you, we will see a lower level of deaths and hospitals despite the increase in positive tests.  If our science is right, the virus is weakening as it goes from A to B to C …to H.

When we get to H, the virus will have completely mutated back to the common gold. Lab viruses are unstable and they will revert to their natural state in time

(Luc Montagnier//Nobel Prize Winner/2008)

“Crunch Time” Arrives And… Was Everyone Wrong About The Coronavirus?

One week ago, when looking at the growing divergence between the growing number of new coronavirus cases in the US and shrinking number of fatalities, we referred to Nordea’s strategist Andreas Steno Larsen, who observed that “we are entering “crunch time” on fatalities since they should start to rise in early July given the lead/lag structure versus new cases.”

As Larsen further predicted, “if fatalities don’t spike early in July, then people will conclude that it’s probably spreading amongst a part of the population that is not as sensitive, or that it is a resulted of increased testing or that the virus has become less deadly as we move into the summer months. Governors in Texas, California and Florida seem to have concluded that the below correlation holds, but the jury is still out.”

His conclusion was that “the next 6-10 days will be crucial.”

Well, one week later, we decided to follow up on the current status and… well, there is no spike in fatalities at either the federal level…

… or even state level as can be seen in the Florida cases vs deaths chart below:

Meanwhile, as cases appear to be plateauing in several states, not only do deaths refuse to inflect higher but are at the lowest level since March.

So were most experts wrong that the surge in cases would also lead to a spike in deaths?

And while we are debating that question, here’s another one: back in late March and early April, consensus emerged that unless the first coronavirus wave is contained, it would result in an even more acute and deadly second wave. Why? Because both professional and armchair epidemiologists were using the Spanish flu as a case study as shown in the following chart from JPMorgan.

Now, according to Deutsche Bank, it appears that this comparison to the 1918 Spanish Flu may have also been terribly wrong.

As DB’s Jim Reid writes, one paper that influenced market thinking in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic looked at the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions like social distancing and school closures during the Spanish flu (link here). The paper found that the US cities that implemented these measures tended to have better economic outcomes over the medium term. This offered historical support to the argument that there wasn’t such a big trade-off between economic activity and public health, because you needed to suppress the virus to enable consumers to be more confident and for businesses to operate as normal.

However, a major difference between Spanish flu and Covid-19 is the age distribution of fatalities, as shown in the chart below.

For Covid-19, the elderly have been overwhelmingly the worst hit. For the Spanish flu of 1918, the young working-age population were severely affected too. In fact, the death rate from pneumonia and influenza that year among 25-34 year olds in the United States was more than 50% higher than that for 65-74 year olds, “a remarkable difference to Covid-19.”

This, as the strategist then notes, therefore begs the question of how history will judge the lockdown response to Covid-19, given its much more limited impact on workers in the economy. In short, we have an interesting situation at the moment, where rapidly rising cases in the US are slowing reopenings (negative) but the death rate is falling (positive).

Here are some further observations conducted by another DB strategist, Francis Yared, which suggest that the second wave is far less serious than the media is making it out to be.

Conclusion: The overall mortality rate as measured by weekly deaths/ weekly new cases (2 weeks lead) is about 1/3rd of the level observed in the second half of April

Analysis: We calculate (1) the hospitalization rate as currently hospitalized (weekly average) / new cases (weekly sum, 1 week lead) and (2) the hospitalization mortality rate as Deaths (weekly sum) /currently hospitalized (weekly average, 1 week lead). The latter is a normalization of last week’s calculation from daily deaths to weekly deaths. We focus on weekly averages and weekly lags as the time spent in hospital is about 1 week and to smooth the volatility due to week-end effects.

Results:

  • The hospitalization rate has declined to ~20% by 10-15pp since the second half of April. This may be due to (a) increased testing and better quality of the tests capturing milder cases and (b) self-selection of the population taking risks (e.g. average age of new cases declining)
  • The hospitalization mortality rate halved to ~10% (last week’s results scaled from daily to weekly deaths) since the second half of April.
  • The overall mortality rate (deaths over lagged new cases) is the product of the previous two calculations. Since the second half of April, it has declined by about 2/3rd from 6.5% to 2%.
  • For the three largest states with hospitalization data CA/NY/TX, the respective current levels are as follows. Hospitalization rate: 18.1%, 18.7%, 19.4%. Hospitalization mortality rate: 7.8%, 6.9%, 5.2%. Overall mortality rate: 1.7%, 1.5%, 1.0%.

Meanwhile daily tests in the US hit a new all time high every single day.

As DB concludes, “this may eventually give us more faith that we are now better at living with the virus.”

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

BRAZIL

The President of Brazil tests positive for the coronavirus.  No doubt he will ask for HCQ + AZM + zinc

(zerohedge)

 

President Jair Bolsonaro Tests Positive For COVID-19: Brazilian Media

Brazilian media is reporting early Tuesday that President Jair Bolsonaro has tested positive for coronavirus, but the country and local media are still awaiting official confirmation.

CNBC reports Tuesday morning that “Brazilian news sources, including an affiliate of CNN — report that Bolsonaro has tested positive for the virus, but this has not been verified by CNBC or officially confirmed.”

The prior day Bolsonaro had been feeling unwell and running a high temperature, his office said. The 65-year old leader was described by CNN as having a fever over 100 degrees, and reportedly began taking the anti-malaria pill hydroxychloroquine to help treat the virus.

He went to the hospital Monday night for a lung scan and said he would get tested for conoronavirus, results of which are expected back this morning.

As recently as this weekend he was photographed enjoying festivities with cabinet members at a July 4th gathering at the American ambassador’s residence, where as is typical for Bolsonaro and his entourage, no one was wearing a mask.

The Brazilian president was siting next to US Ambassador to Brazil, Todd Chapman, during the party, raising concern. The New York Times reports the potential exposure has prompted Chapman to get tested:

Also on Monday night, the U.S. embassy signaled concern that the ambassador might have been exposed to the virus, saying that Mr. Chapman does not have any symptoms but intends to get tested and “is taking the proper precautions,” including following contact tracing protocols established by the Centers for Disease Control.

All of this comes after early in the pandemic crisis multiple aides of the Bolsonaro tested positive after a trip to meet with President Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate.

Since then the Brazilian president has tested negative for COVID-19 three times. He’s also come under intense criticism locally and internationally for a seemingly cavalier approach to the virus.

According to CNBC this instance, and with symptoms present, is enough to prompt prompt cancelling all presidential events: “Local media reported Bolsonaro has canceled all his official activities until he gets the results of his test for Covid-19.”

Brazil still ranks second in the world behind the United States in both confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths.

developing…

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1286 DOWN .0026 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS//PANDEMIC// /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY RED (EXCEPT ITALY)

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.70 UP 0.339 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2516   UP   0.0021  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3568 UP .0029 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 26 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1286 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 12.46 POINTS OR 0.37% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 363,50 POINTS OR 1.38%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,01%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 363.50 POINTS OR 1.38%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 12.46 POINTS OR 0.37%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 01% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 99.75  POINTS OR 0.44%

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

 

Gold very early morning trading: 1777.95

silver:$18.07-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.68% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.43 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 96.93 UP 21 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.41% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +04%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.42%//DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,21 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 79 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.43% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.64% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1293  DOWN     .0019 or 19 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.51 UP .152 OR YEN DOWN 15  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2567 UP .0072 POUND UP 72  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 45 basis points to 1.3584

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0140    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0159  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.8568 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.04%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from MONDAY at 0.67 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.41 DOWN 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.80 UP 7  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 50.17  1.47%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 116.65 POINTS OR .92%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 37.78 POINTS 0.74%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 108.80 POINTS or 1.44%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 19.18 POINTS OR 0.10%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 40.90 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 43.28 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    71.42  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.41 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 41 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.43 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  40.34//

 

 

BRENT :  42.78

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.64..down 4 basis points…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.37  down 7 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1270 ( DOWN 42   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.55  UP .193 (YEN DOWN 19 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.98 UP 24 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2536 UP 42  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.8578

 

 

the Russian rouble 71.49   UP 0.35 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 35 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3608 DOWN 69 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.43%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 396.85 POINTS OR 1.51%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 89.76 POINTS OR 0.86%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  29.58 CLOSED UP 1.64

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.276%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Gold Spikes To 9-Year High, Bonds Bid As Stocks Skid

Lost in the headlines about Amazon or Tesla or Nasdaq or whatever the latest Robinhood-er is chasing higher today, is the fact that gold prices continue to rise, with futures topping $1800 once again… (some chaotic swings recently)

And spot prices back to their highest since Sept 2011…

Source: Bloomberg

And at the same time, so-called ‘Safe Haven’ from the virus have screamed higher at or near record bubble valuations…

Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg’s Michael Regan notes, the trailing price-to earnings ratio of the S&P 500 Information Technology Index is about one decent rally away from cracking the 30 level, while the same ratio for consumer-discretionary stocks is fast approaching 40, in large part thanks to a record rally in Amazon.com Inc. With rising virus cases threatening to stymie the reopenings of various state economies and uncertainty over future stimulus packages, July is setting up to be a month of serious headline risk that could put to the test the Federal Reserve’s magic spell on the market, especially the most richly valued sectors.

Can the spell continue? Or will retail chasers get burned?

The longest win streak of the year appears to be over despite the best efforts of the pumpers to BTFD at the cash open in the Nasdaq…Today’s selling started at the European close. There was also a notable puke in the last 10 minutes on a significant sell MoC imbalance…

Small Caps are down 1% from Thursday’s close…

Defensives have overtaken cyclicals on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dow dropped back below its 200DMA…

July’s long momo, short value factor trade continues to gather pace…

Source: Bloomberg

US Treasury sold 2Y notes at a record low yield today – makes you wonder…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were lower across the curve today with the long-end most notably (30Y -5bps)

Source: Bloomberg

Pushing 30Y Yields back below 1.40%…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar was stronger today after some weakness overnight (thanks to yuan gains)…

Source: Bloomberg

Offshore Yuan held on to gains from Monday…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were relatively flat on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

big roundtrip in commodities today with copper and gold gaining as silver and crude faded…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI did bounce back above $40 ahead of tonight’s inventory data…

Finally, it’s fun-durr-mentals, stupid!

Source: Bloomberg

And the good news is that COVID deaths continue to trend notably lower (which may explain why today’s vaccine investment headlines didn’t juice the market 1000s of points higher)…

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

USDollar & Stock Futures Dive As Offshore Yuan Spikes To 4-Month Highs

China’s offshore yuan extended its spike in early Asia trading, pushing back below 7/USD – its strongest vs the greenback in almost four months…

That triggered weakness in the dollar…

US equity futures are tumbling back from early gains…

And gold is bid…

What is China doing?

Are they pumping the yuan and stocks to provide a cushion for when Trump’s rising rhetoric turns into executive orders?

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

The Jolts report:  there are 3.9 unemployed workers for every job opening (despite the surge in hiring last month)

(zerohedge)

3.9 Unemployed Workers For Every Job Opening Despite Record Hiring Surge: JOLTS

With the BLS’s JOLTs, or job openings and labor turnover survey, coming in with an extra month delay, we already knew that the May jobs data would be the strongest on record (if only after the catastrophic April loss of 20MM jobs), and sure enough that’s what the BLS confirmed moments ago when it revealed that in May the number of job openings jumped from a revised 4.996 million to 5.397 million, beating the expectation for a continued drop to 4.5 million (after plunging from 6 million to just 5 million in April, a level last seen in 2014).

 

Job openings rose in accommodation and food services (+196,000), retail trade (+147,000), and construction (+118,000); they declined in information (-55,000), federal government (-37,000), and educational services (-27,000). The number of job openings increased in the South region.

While we already knew that the series of 24 consecutive months in which there were more job openings than unemployed workers ended with a thud in March, in April it was an absolute doozy with 18 million more unemployed workers than there are job openings, the biggest gap on record. In May the gap closed somewhat, with 15.6 million more unemployed than available job openings. As a result, there were about 3.9 unemployed workers for every job opening.

 

There was a silver lining in the number of hires which after plunging to a decade-low 4 million in April, soared by 1.5 million in May to a record high 6.487MM. Hires increased in a number of industries, with the greatest rise in accommodation and food services (+763,000), followed by health care and social assistance (+479,000), and construction (+427,000).

 

Additionally, as hires soared in May, separations tumbled from 10 million to just 4.1 million. Of these, the number of layoffs collapsed to just 1.8 million in May from 7.7 million in April, and a record 11.5 million in March.The number of layoffs and discharges decreased in May to 1.8 million (-5,912,000) and 1.4 percent, respectively. The rate, which had reached a series high of 7.6 percent in March, is now much closer to the pre-pandemic rate of 1.2 percent in February. The number of layoffs and discharges decreased for total private to 1.7 million (-5,809,000) and for government to 124,000 (-103,000). The layoffs and discharges level decreased in all but one industry. The largest declines occurred in accommodation and food services (-1,251,000), followed by retail trade (-758,000), and other services (-698,000). Layoffs and discharges increased in federal government (+16,000).

And, with far fewer people getting fired, there was a modest increase in the number of people quitting their jobs, which rose to 2.1 million (+190,000). Quits rose to 2.0 million (+228,000) for total private and fell to 108,000 (-38,000) for government.  Quits increased in accommodation and food services (+88,000), durable goods manufacturing (+38,000), and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+27,000). Quits decreased in state and local government education (-26,000), state and local government, excluding education (-25,000), and educational services (-22,000).

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

FLORIDA/USA

I think that this is the best solution:  All Florida schools are ordered to reopen in August.

(zerohedge)

Teachers “Scared” After All Florida Schools Ordered To Reopen In August

In what is sure to be discussed with some “blood on their hands” headline in the next 24 hour news cycle, Fox35 Orlando reports that Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran on Monday ordered public schools to reopen in August and offer “the full panoply of services” to students and families.

The full Emergency Order says that all public schools will be required to reopen in August for at least five days a week and to provide the full array of services required by law, including in-person instruction and services for students with special needs.

“Required services must be provided to students from low-income families, students of migrant workers, students who are homeless, students with disabilities, students in foster care, students who are English-language learners, and other vulnerable populations,” the order says.

Corcoran’s order also instructs school districts to follow the advice of state and local health officials as well as executive orders issued by Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Read the full emergency order below:

Of course, as one would imagine, teachers are concerned. According to Florida Education Association President Fedrick Ingram.

It’s clear in communications with our members that educators are scared. They don’t trust politicians to make sure things are safe — rightly so, with the record-breaking number of cases being reported,” Ingram told the News Service of Florida in an email Monday.

“The governor is trying to brush that off.”

Of course, while every mainstream media org is leading with the soaring “cases”, few, if any, have mentioned the flat incremental deaths (and this plunging mortality rate)…

The average age for those testing positive for COVID-19 in Florida is now only 21Gov. Ron DeSantis said Monday in an update in The Villages.  He said the younger age of those testing positive is contributing to lower mortality rates from the virus across the state. The fatality rate in Florida is currently less than 2%.

However, Ingram, who heads the state’s top teachers’ union, said students and school employees “need to be at the center of our conversations about reopening schools.”

And just like that it becomes politicized as ‘science’ goes out the door.

Under the order issued Monday, school districts and charter-school governing boards are required to submit reopening plans to the Department of Education showing how all schools plan to fully reopen and offer all services to students.

END

Coronavirus update/USA/Casino stocks

COVID Concerns Send Casino Stocks Tumbling As Recovery Dims

As the recovery stalls, states are pausing and or reversing reopenings as coronavirus cases surge. Mobility trends show retail and or corporate workspace activity slowed in late June, sparking new concerns the casino recovery could be coming to an end.

The S&P500 Casino and Gaming (Sub Ind) is down 1% in late afternoon trading on Monday. From mid-March to June 8, the casino index soared 133% on reopening optimism. Since June 9, the index has fallen 24% on technical exhaustion, coupled with rising virus cases across the country that could threaten recent reopenings of US casinos.

Notable declines MGM Resorts International (-2%), Wynn Resorts Ltd (-2%), Penn National Gaming (-4.1%), Golden Entertainment (-4.4%), Caesars Entertainment (-1.5%), and Boyd Gaming (-3.8%).

You’re never going to guess who panic bought casino stocks with their Trump checks and unemployment benefits –  Robinhood traders, of course. Notice at the start of the pandemic, the number of Robinhood users holding MGM shares went from 7,800 to over 200,000 by early July.

Robinhood traders also panic bought Barstool Sports’ Dave Portnoy’s PENN during the pandemic.

Americans are quickly losing interest in casinos. No proven vaccine = no hanging out in indoor commercial spaces. 

Don’t tell Robinhood daytraders, who panic bought not just casinos, but also airlines, cruise ships, and rental car companies – that a V-shaped recovery in the real economy won’t happen this year.

Former Chief Economist at the World Bank Paul Romer shocked a Fox Bussiness host Monday when he said a recovery in economic growth and jobs reverting to 2019 levels could take until 2028.

Millennials who panic bought virus-sensitive stocks could find out in the coming months/quarters what it means to be a bagholder.

end
The USA awards Novavax with 1.6 billion dollars for its version of a Covid vaccine.  Let us see if it is safe and works.
(zerohedge)

Operation Warp Speed Awards Novavax $1.6 Billion For COVID Vaccine 

With US equity futures under pressure on Tuesday morning – it’s not surprising whatsoever that hopium-inspiring vaccine headlines are hitting the tape.

Novavax was awarded $1.6 Billion in funding via Operation Warp Speed to support “large-scale manufacturing of NVX-COV2373.”

  • NOVAVAX ANNOUNCES $1.6 BILLION FUNDING FROM OPERATION WARP SPEED

Gaithersburg, Maryland-based Novavax said in a statement that initial production of 100 million doses would start in late 2020. The aim is to have millions of doses ready by January 2021.

  • NOVAVAX – OWS AWARD FUNDS LARGE-SCALE MANUFACTURING OF NVX-COV2373, INCLUDING PRODUCTION OF 100 MILLION DOSES STARTING IN LATE 2020

Novavax shares jumped as much as 35% in premarket Tuesday following the news.

So far, this is the largest funding award via Operation Warp Speed, the White House program to fast track a vaccine for COVID-19.

“What this Warp Speed award does is it pays for production of 100 million doses, which would be delivered starting in the fourth quarter of this year, and may be completed by January or February of next year,” Novavax CEO Stanley Erck told Reuters.

The funds will also help the biotech cover expenses related to a large Phase 3 trial, the final stage of human testing, expected to start in fall, and could include as many as 30,000 subjects.

Today’s announcement follows a $456 million partnership (in March) between Johnson & Johnson and the US government for a COVID-19 vaccine. In April, the government awarded Moderna Inc $486 million for vaccine development and up to $1.2 billion in May for AstraZeneca’s vaccine being developed with Oxford University.

end

Michael Snyder witnesses violent crime surging dramatically in major cities all across the uSA

(Michael Snyder)

Violent Crime Is Surging Dramatically In Major Cities All Over America

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

What we are witnessing all over the country right now is incredibly sad.  In the aftermath of the tragic death of George Floyd, it would have been wonderful to see the entire nation unite behind an effort to make our society less violent, more just and more peaceful.  But instead, we have seen a tremendous explosion of violence and lawlessness that doesn’t seem likely to end any time soon.

Violent crime rates are surging in major city after major city, and the 4th of July weekend was particularly bad.  At least 41 people were hit by gunfire in New York City during the holiday weekend, and this continues a trend that we have seen throughout the first half of 2020.  Just check out these numbers

According to figures released by the New York Police Department, for the first six months of this year, there were 176 murders, an increase of 23 percent on the 143 killed during the same period last year.

The number of shooting victims has gone up 51 percent to 616 this year. In June alone, there were 250 shootings compared to 97 in the same month last year. Month-on-month, burglaries are up 119 percent and car thefts up 48 percent.

I don’t know which one of those numbers is the worst, because they are all quite horrific.

tremendous amount of money has been shifted away from the NYPD budget, and that certainly isn’t going to help matters.  For years, the hard work of the NYPD had helped to make New York safer than many of our other major cities, but now that is changing at a pace that is absolutely breathtaking.  In fact, one British news source is now referring to the city as “lawless New York”…

Two bullet-ridden bodies lay sprawled on bloodstained concrete steps. Alongside, relatives of the victims are wailing and collapse to the ground. In another part of the city, a gang of youths use spray paint to disable security cameras before robbing a corner store. Later, video footage captures police officers sitting helplessly in their patrol car as a baying crowd hurls glass bottles at them.

This is lawless New York – a city that was once America’s glittering crown jewel but which risks descending into mob rule.

Of course New York still has a long way to go if it wants to rival Chicago.  According to authorities, there are more than 100,000 gang members living in Chicago at this point, and the violence never seems to stop.

Sadly, the last couple of days have been particularly bad.  Over the 4th of July weekend, at least 67 people were hit by gunfire in the Windy City…

At least 67 people were shot, including 13 fatally, over the Independence Day weekend in Chicago, according to authorities.

Nine of the weekend’s victims were minors, and two children died, officials told Fox32. That includes 14-year-old boy who was among four people who were killed in the South Side neighborhood Englewood on Saturday evening.

But instead of blaming the criminals, the Chicago Sun-Times seem to think that “cutting funding for police could lead to a better and safer Chicago”.

Seriously?

Do people actually believe such nonsense?

Philadelphia is another major city that is seeing a massive increase in violent crime at the same time funding for the police is being cut back…

Shootings are up 67 percent. Victims of armed violence are up 29 percent. Homicides are up 25 percent. So of course it makes sense to defund the Philadelphia PD by $19 million.

Most Americans desperately want their neighborhoods to feel safe, and this could be the one issue that could rescue the Republicans from a potential disaster in the November election.

Right now, most Democrats are extremely hesitant to speak out against the violent protests that we have been witnessing all over the nation, and that is a huge mistake.

And we definitely witnessed more alarming violence during the political protests that were held over the past few days.  For example, protesters in Portland were launching projectiles and shooting fireworks at police officers in Portland for hours.  If Democrats want to win over independent voters, they cannot be seen as siding with such violence.

By engaging in such utter lawlessness, these radical protesters are actually hurting their own cause, because it is only going to help President Trump.

So Joe Biden’s unwillingness to strongly call for law and order may turn out to be his Achilles heel.

The way national elections are won in America is by winning over the millions of confused people in the middle, and right now the images of these protests that those confused people are viewing on their television screens are definitely not helping Democrats.  For example, over the weekend protesters in New York were burning American flags as they chanted “America was never great”

FAR left protesters have burned American flags outside Trump Tower and the White House.

Video shows the Stars and Stripes being burned just outside the White House as the demonstrators chanted “America was never great”.

Does anyone out there actually think that such stunts will make the confused people in the middle more likely to vote for Democrats?

Right now, Trump is way behind in the polls, but if he makes these protesters the central issue of the campaign over the next several months he may still have a chance of winning.

But no matter who wins in November, it appears that we have now entered a new era of violence and rioting in this country.

Many of our major cities already resemble war zones, and what we have experienced so far is just the beginning.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries

Maxwell is heading to a rat infested, Covid 19 infested MDC in Brooklyn

(zerohedge)

Ghislaine Maxwell Goes From Posh Hideout To COVID-Stricken ‘Third World Country’ NY Jail

For the first time in her privileged life, ex-socialite Ghislaine Maxwell is living in conditions described by one judge in 2016 as similar to a ‘prison on Turkey or a Third World Country.’

The 58-year-old Maxwell was arrested after hiding out in a lavish four-bedroom, four-bathroom mansion in New Hampshire, which Bloomberg notes sports views of the Mount Sunapee foothills from every room.

After being initially booked in New Hampshire on multiple charges related to trafficking underage girls for the sexual gratification of dead pedophile Jeffrey Epstein, Maxwell was transferred on Monday to New York’s Metropolitan Detention Center (MDC) – home to over 1,600 male and female detainees which was built at the turn of the 20th century and used during both world wars, according to Bloomberg.

No one wants to go to jail, but the conditions described at the MDC have been the subject of numerous complaints and scrutiny that rival the rat-infested federal lockup in Lower Manhattan where Epstein was held.

In early 2019, hundreds of inmates at the MDC were locked shivering in their cells for at least a week after an electrical fire knocked out power in the building. The inmates spent some of the coldest days of that winter in darkness, largely without heat and hot water. –Bloomberg

One inmate, Derrilyn Needham, has been incarcerated at MDC since last November along with 30 other women who slept in bunk beds. Needham said social distancing was difficult, and that for three days starting April 23, the women were on “lockdown on our bunk beds, not able to leave our bunks except to use the bathroom or shower.

She added that they hadn’t been given gloves, hand sanitizer or disinfectant wipes – and that despite symptoms of COVID-19, the assistant warden said she couldn’t receive a test for the virus.

According to The Intercept, “The number of reported coronavirus symptoms far exceeds the number of tests MDC has performed.” In May, the facility came under fire for allegedly destroying medical records “as part of a deliberate effort to obscure the number of incarcerated people infected with the coronavirus.”

The report, filed Thursday as part of a putative class-action lawsuit by people held in custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, casts doubt on assertions by the Bureau of Prisons, which runs the jail, and the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District, which serves as counsel for the bureau. The Bureau of Prisons and federal prosecutors have insisted in court that the situation at the jail is under control. But the medical examiner’s report — which contradicted prison assertions that Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines were being followed — suggests that the six people in custody who have tested positive for the disease likely represent the tip of the iceberg. –The Intercept

After the pandemic began, the detention center was deemed “ill-equipped” to deal with the spread of COVID-19 by former chief medical officer for the city’s jails, Homer Venters, who says he’s “concerned about the ongoing health and safety of the population,” and slammed administrators for failing to adequately deal with the pandemic.

Cheryl Pollak, the federal magistrate in Brooklyn, has repeatedly voiced concerns about the MDC after reviewing a report by the National Association of Women Judges, who visited the facility and found that 161 female inmates were housed 24 hours a day, seven days a week, in two large rooms that lacked windows, fresh air or sunlight and weren’t allowed out to exercise. –Bloomberg

“Some of these conditions wouldn’t surprise me if we were dealing with a prison in Turkey or a Third World Country,” Pollak said during a 2016 hearing. “It’s hard for me to believe it’s going on in a federal prison.”

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

China stocks surge after state media urges investors to load up

Chorus of support for equity market echoes ill-fated efforts in 2015

https://www.ft.com/content/6a26f8c0-5538-4605-a64f-dce5a08d0600

China Securities Journal said in a front-page editorial: “We firmly believe that China’s economy will continue to improve for the long term, and will not be stranded by the wind and waves; we look forward to the wealth effect of the capital market, which will bloom for a long time and will not be short-lived; we practice, awe the market, awe the risks, step up and move forward.”…

https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/china-leads-regional-risk-rally/

China’s security leaders vow hard line for HK – Elite paramilitary officers set to back up Beijing’s new national security office in Hong Kong amid fears of a power grab

    The sweeping new law aims to punish secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces in Hong Kong…  https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/chinas-security-leaders-vow-hard-line-for-hk/

Minnesota Doctor who Revealed Hospitals Get Paid More for COVID-19 Patients Is Now Being Investigated by the State – for public statements he made “spreading misinformation” about death certificates and COVID-19… and “provided reckless advice” comparing COVID-19 and influenza…

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/07/minnesota-doctor-revealed-hospitals-get-paid-covid-19-patients-now-investigated-state/

Supreme Court rules electoral college representatives must honor choice of state’s voters

The justices unanimously rejected the claim that electors have a right under the Constitution to defy their states and vote for the candidate of their choice … [Can’t vote for popular-vote winner]

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-07-06/supreme-court-electoral-college-states-voters

Today – Remember when stocks were declining because of the second US Covid-19 wave?  Gosh, it’s seems like only a week ago!  After the China-Tesla explosive rally on Monday, a Turnaround Tuesday to the downside is probable, especially if there is early buying by conditioned traders.

Pay close attention to the 1st-Hour Indicator.  A breach of the NYSE first-hour low could be a sign that a Turnaround Tuesday to the downside is materializing.  Remember, stocks can stay irrational for a lot longer than one can stay solvent fighting them.

The CBOE Put-Call ratio hit .42 on Monday.  This is the lowest reading since the ratio hit .37 on June 8.  During the ensuing four sessions, the S&P 500 Index declined 8%.  ESUs are +6.50 at 21:00 ET.

Trump: Corrupt Joe Biden and the Democrats don’t want to open schools in the Fall for political reasons, not for health reasons! They think it will help them in November. Wrong, the people get it!

@charliekirk11: The mayor of Atlanta, in this video marching with BLM inc, has now contracted the Chinese Coronavirus   https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1280279041518395394

For weeks, the media glorified protestors and romanticized ‘protest zones’.  After people were shot and some died at the CHOP zone and protestors stormed her home, Seattle’s mayor shut down the zone.  In Atlanta over the weekend, an 8-year old girl was shot and killed by a protestor near a ‘zone’.

1776Stonewall: Atlanta Mayor vows to clear “protest zone” after shooting of 8 year old girl, right near the scene of the Rayshard Brooks’ death

Atlanta Mayor on Child’s Murder: ‘You can’t blame this on a Police Officer’ https://t.co/GM1J2f1dAN

87 shot, 17 fatally, in Chicago July 4th weekend violence, police say

https://abc7chicago.com/87-shot-17-fatally-in-july-4th-weekend-violence/6301523/

@rachelbovard: Davon McNeal was shot this weekend in DC. He was 11 and an up-and-coming football star. When asked to prepare a report about someone who inspired him, he chose Frederick Douglass.

6-year-old boy shot and killed in Philadelphia over holiday weekend  https://trib.al/u7qEmsg

Man shot dead in Bronx while walking with 6-year-old daughter   https://trib.al/US4M37s

White House Press Sec McEnany slammed the media for obsessing on the Confederate Flag while ignoring the weekend violence that included the death of children.  “I was asked probably twelve question about the Confederate Flag…I didn’t receive one question on the deaths that we got in this country this weekend. I didn’t receive one question about New Your City shootings doubling for the 3rd straight week, and for the last 7 days shootings skyrocket by 142%, not one question.  I didn’t receive one question about five children who were killed…All black lives matter…That is David Dorn and that is an eight-year old girl.”   https://twitter.com/MillerStream/status/1280201465244631042

@ShelbyTalcott: Police in DC cleared out the tents on BLM plaza this morning. Protesters previously vowed to remain here indefinitely and had a list of demands for change.

@no_silenced: The Washington State Patrol is now saying the will arrest protesters coming onto the freeway after a 24yr old female was killed…it took someone getting killed before they did the right thing

At least 9 arrested in Loop, more in Boystown during weekend street take-overs

Chicago police on Monday refused to say how many people were arrested during an unauthorized Fourth of July celebration in the Loop this weekend…By 9:15 p.m., a police supervisor estimated that 1,000 people were running into traffic around Millennium Park. The police department redeployed its saturation teams and many detectives to back-up officers as the situation escalated, according to a CPD source…The Walgreens store at State and Randolph was overrun by a large group of partiers who fought in the aisles and stole merchandise, according to an employee…

https://cwbchicago.com/2020/07/at-least-9-arrested-in-loop-more-in-boystown-during-weekend-street-take-overs.html

Pitchfork-wielding protesters descend on wealthy Hamptons estates

A caravan of protesters — some wielding plastic pitchforks — descended on the Hamptons Wednesday to blast the rich and decry the nation’s rising income inequality…“Tax the rich, not the poor!” the protesters chanted outside Bloomberg’s $20 million Southampton mansion, with some calling the failed presidential candidate a “looter.”… https://trib.al/B8Amm1d

College Researcher Ousted After Sharing Study Showing No Racial Bias in Police Shootings

The vice president of Research and Innovation at Michigan State University, physicist Stephen Hsu, has been forced out of his position at the university after daring to show actual facts from a 2019 study that show there to be no racial bias in incidents of police shootings….

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/racist-college-researcher-ousted-after-sharing-study-showing-no-racial-bias-police

Facebook groups pivot to attacks on Black Lives Matter https://trib.al/t3kFGRM

Tammy Duckworth slams Trump’s Mt. Rushmore speech: “He spent all his time talking about dead traitors” [Dem Senator from IL that is being vetted for Biden’s VP] http://hill.cm/0s9So1C

@MZHemingway: I don’t think I’ve ever seen such dishonest coverage of any event.” @brithume on media flat-out lying about Trump’s Mount Rushmore speech

Former Obama White House Physician: “I Think He’s Got Some Cognitive Issues”

Jackson added, “I’m not comfortable with him being my president.”… Jackson, who was White House Physician during both the Barack Obama and Donald Trump administrations, gave the Montreal Cognitive Assessment to President Trump in 2018 at the President’s request, so Trump could quell criticisms from his foes that he was mental unfit.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/07/former-obama-white-house-physician-think-got-cognitive-issues-audio/

Expected economic data: May JOLTS Job Openings 4.8m; Atlanta Fed Prez Bostic 9:00 ET, SF Fed Prez Daly and Richmond Fed Prez Barkin 14:00 ET

Well that is all for today

I will see you WEDNESDAY night.

One comment

  1. Alice and Barry Mullin · · Reply

    Mr. Organ:

    Every day I check your gold figures with the ones produced on BNNBloomberg provided to them by the CME. Today it lists gold over $1,800 and your figures below that figure. Who’s right? News reports indicate gold surpassed the $1,800 mark but yours are always between $10 and $15 less. Why? WQould appreciate knowing because I follow gold and watch the price right up until the 5 p.m. switch time. Thanks, Barry Mullin

    Like

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