JULY 8//GOLD RISES AGAIN UP $13.75 TO $1810.85//SILVER BREAKS THE $18.50 BARRIER TO $18.70 UP 37 CENTS//COMEX GOLD STANDING 20.3 TONNES: A RECORD FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH//LOOKS LIKE AUGUST WILL BE A HUMDINGER OF A DELIVERY MONTH//ALASDAIR MACLEOD COMMENTS ON MAJOR PROBLEMS FACING OUR SHORTING BULLION BANKS//CHINA VS USA: USA TARGETS THE HONK KONG DOLLAR PEG//CHINA RESPONDS//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES FROM AROUND THE GLOBE//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1810.85  UP $13.75   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

Silver:$18.70// UP 37 CENTS  London spot price

 

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1809.00  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $18.72//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

AUG GOLD:  $1820.7  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE AUG /: $9.10

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER SEPT COMEX CLOSE;   $19.14…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :  44 CENTS  PER OZ

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2600. usa per oz

and silver; $29.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 33/347

issued 125

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,804.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/07/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 07/09/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 6
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 79
135 H RAND 1
152 C DORMAN TRADING 13
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 1
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 2
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 31
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 13
661 C JP MORGAN 125 33
690 C ABN AMRO 7 4
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 55 34
800 C MAREX SPEC 153 92
878 C PHILLIP CAPITAL 7 3
905 C ADM 34
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 347 347
MONTH TO DATE: 5,978

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 347 NOTICE(S) FOR 34,700 OZ (1.079 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  5,978 NOTICES FOR 597800 OZ  (18.594 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JULY

 

 

203 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1,015,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 13,456 for 67.280 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $9287  UP 30  

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $9439 UP $183

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $13.75 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.89 TONNES

 

 

GLD: 1,199.36 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

SURPRISING: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE  SLV: A WITHDRAWAL ?? OF 1.118 MILLION OZ//

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 502.753  MILLION OZ./

AGAIN THE CROOKS ARE STEALING FROM THE SLV INVENTORY!!

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A TINY SIZED 193 CONTRACTS FROM 169,706 DOWN  TO 169,513, AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE TINY SIZED LOSS IN  OI OCCURRED WITH OUR 8 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, ACCOMPANYING  A SMALL DECREASE  IN SILVER STANDING  AT THE COMEX FOR JULY.  WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1219 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A HUGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   JULY: 0  AND SEP 1412 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1412 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1482 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1482 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 7.060 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE  8 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

81.810 MILLION OZ INITIALLY IN JULY.

 

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 8 CENTS).. AND,OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. THE TINY LOSS AT THE COMEX WAS ACCOMPANIED BY : i)  A LARGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A SMALL DECLINE IN STANDING OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY,  STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A STRONG NET GAIN OF 1219 CONTRACTS OR 6.095 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

JULY

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF JULY:

3089 CONTRACTS (FOR 5 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 3089 CONTRACTS) OR 15.445 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 617 CONTRACTS OR 3.089 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY: 15.445 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 2.206% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,152.86 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EXP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EXP                               15.445 MILLION OZ/

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE FOR THE PAST 60 DAYS IS A LOT LESS.  NO DOUBT THAT THE COST TO CARRY THESE THINGS HAS EXPLODED  AND AS SUCH CANNOT BE DONE AS FREQUENTLY AS BEFORE.

 

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 193, DESPITE OUR 8 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///TUESDAYTHE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1412 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A  STRONG SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1219 CONTRACTS (WITH OUR 8 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)//

 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 1412 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A TINY SIZED DECREASE OF 193 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED DESPITE A 8 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.33 // TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.8475 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 121% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  JULY  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 203 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,015,000  OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 81.810 million oz
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 13,406 CONTRACTS TO 572,776 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE  OF $12.50 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY// WE  HAD HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED  GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JULY, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $12.50 .

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 21    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  52

 

WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 15,217 CONTRACTS  (52.00 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 1811 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT .; AUG 1511 AND OCT: 300  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 1811.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 572,776. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 15,217 CONTRACTS: 13,406 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1811 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 15,217 CONTRACTS OR 47.33 TONNES. TUESDAY, WE HAD A GAIN OF $12.50 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE HAD A GOOD SIZED LOSS IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 47.33 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR  SUPPLIED INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT ROSE $12.50).AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WAS  ALSO UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

 

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (1811) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (13,406 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  15,217 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)ANOTHER HUMONGOUS INCREASE IN GOLD  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT JULY MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION; 4) HUGE COMEX OI GAIN.. AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//TUESDAY//$1250.

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD

 

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST FOR GOLD:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUGUST), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY : 13,222 CONTRACTS OR 1,322,200 oz OR 41.12 TONNES (5 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2644 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 41.12 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 41.12/3550 x 100% TONNES =1.16% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3068.86  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                      41.12 TONNES SO FAR..

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A TINY SIZED 188 CONTRACTS FROM 169,706 DOWN TO 169,513 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE TINY OI LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO;   1)   HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A SMALL DECREASE STANDING AT THE SILVER COMEX FOR JULY AND  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 1412 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 1412 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1482 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS  OF 188  CONTRACTS TO THE 1482 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GAIN OF 1219 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6.095 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH THE 8 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///

 

 

RESULT: A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 8 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1412 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON PLUS HUGE FUTURE PREMIUMS OVER SPOT.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 58.10 POINTS OR 1.74%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 153.52 POINTS OR 0.59%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 176.04 POINTS OR 0.78%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.51%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0143 /Oil UP TO 40.61 dollars per barrel for WTI and 43.02 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0143 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0149 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 13,406 CONTRACTS TO 572,776 MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS HUGE  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $12.50 IN GOLD PRICING /TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (1811 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER HUMONGOUS STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//JULY DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) , …  AS WE ENGINEERED A HUMONGOUS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 15,217 CONTRACTS WITH GOLD’S CONSIDERABLE GAIN IN PRICE. NOTE THE FACT THAT THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ARE SMALL.. SOME OF OUR MAJOR BANKERS ARE BANNED FROM USING THE SERIAL FORWARDS.  IF THEY USE THIS VEHICLE IT MUST BE USED FOR PHYSICAL ONLY. SINCE THEY CANNOT TRANSFER TO LONDON THEY ARE FORCED TO INCREASE THEIR SHORT POSITIONS AT THE GOLD COMEX. AND SOME MOVED THEM OVER TO THE NEW 400 OZ LONDON ENHANCED VEHICLE.( VOLUME  36  OI INCREASED BY 21 TO 52.)

(SEE BELOW)

 

 

WE  HAD 36    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest RISES TO 52

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 1811 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  AUG  1511 ,OCT 300 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1811 CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  15,217 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1811 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 13,406 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A SMALL  AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE COMEX OI GAIN,  A HUGE  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR THE JULY DELIVERY (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)… AND ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION……AND WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN COMEX PRICE OF 12.50 DOLLARS..

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $12.50).  AND, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS 

AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A GOOD 47.33 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 15.217 CONTRACTS OR 1,521,700 OZ OR 47.33 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  572,776 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 57.28 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1781 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1781/2200 OR 80.95% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 293,862 contracts//fair volume//hitting rock bottom//most traders have moved to London

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  254,604 contracts//  volume low //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

JULY 8 /2020

JULY GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

172,864.64

OZ

HSBC

JPM

 

INCLUDES

5000

 

KILOBARS

JPM

No of oz served (contracts) today
347 notice(s)
 34,700 OZ
(1.079 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
541 contracts
(54,100 oz)
1.68 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5978 notices
597800 OZ
18.594 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 

 

 

total deposit: NIL oz

 

DEALER WITHDRAWAL: 0

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 2 deposits into the customer account

 

 

i) Into JPMorgan: 160,755.000 oz 5,000 kilobars

ii) Into HBSC  12,109.64 oz

 

 

 

 

total deposit:  172,864.64 oz

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  0 oz

We had 2  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 1 //    

dealer to customer:

Brinks:  192.90 oz  ( 6 kilobars)

 

 

 

 

The front month of JULY registered a total of 888 oi contracts FOR a GAIN of 24 contracts. We had 658 notices served on TUESDAY so we GAINED A HUGE 682 contracts or an additional 68,200 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into London based forwards.

 

 

Next comes August another strong delivery month and here the OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS 7201  contracts UP to 387,504 contracts, as we begin our countdown to first day notice. This should be contracting in number.  Ladies and Gentlemen, we are going to have a humdinger of an August delivery of gold!!!

Sept saw another addition of 13 contracts to stand at 121.  Oct GAINED 559 contracts up to 37,833.

 

We had 347 notices filed today for 34,700 oz

 

FOR THE JULY 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 125 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 347 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 33 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 6 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5978) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JULY (888 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (347 x 100 oz per contract) equals 651,900 OZ OR 20.27 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (5978 x 100 oz + (888 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (347) x 100 oz which equals 651,900 oz standing OR 20.27 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE record amount for gold standing for a JULY delivery month (a  non active delivery month).

We gained 682 contracts or an additional 68200 oz will stand at the comex.

We are now witnessing an increase in queue jumping on a daily basis. Sooner or later they will be running out of metal to supply our longs.

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

312,441.780 oz PLEDGED  JUNE 24// 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.036 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

 

657,424.187 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/july 2               20.448 tonnes

total pledged gold:  1,156,503.227 oz                                     35.97 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 365.80 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS ie. 20.27 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  12,916,862.172 oz or 401.77 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (SOME  DELETED JUNE 24 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  312,441.780 oz (or 9.718 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    DELETED:   JULY 7.2020
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  DELETED
g) pledged gold at Brinks: 657,424.187 oz added which cannot be settled:  20.448 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,156,503.227 oz or 35.97 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 11,760552.0  (365.80 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  11,760,552.0 (365.80 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  19,582,269.640 oz (609.09 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   33,142,436.968 oz 1030.86 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  904.52 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of April 2018. and it continues to present day.  Thus 24 data entry points.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.  Gold owners are very clear people.  They would know full well that

the gold at the comex is unallocated and that they would not be stupid enough to keep their gold at the comex especially in the registered category once deliveries are asked upon. If physical gold was present it would be have removed from the comex… It shows there is no gold at the comex.  They are just trading in sticky paper.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

JULY 8/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A TINY SIZED 188 CONTRACTS FROM 169,706 DOWN TO 169,513 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,384 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE TINY LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS DUE TO;   1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A SMALL DECREASE AMOUNT OF  SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE JULY CONTRACT MONTH ,  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

WE STILL HAVE A HUMONGOUS AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JULY.

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 1412 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 1412 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1482 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS  OF 188  CONTRACTS TO THE 1482 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 1219 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6.095 MILLION  OZ OCCURRED WITH THE 8 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///

 

 

 

RESULT: A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 8 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE SIZED 1412 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

JULY 8/2020

JULY SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH

 

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 618,376.01 oz
CNT
DELAWARE
BRINKS

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
584.363.95 oz
CNT
Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
203
CONTRACT(S)
(1,015,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
24 contracts
 120,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  13,456 contracts

67,280,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposit into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii) Into HSBC:  583,389.300 oz

iii) Into Delaware: 974.65 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.744 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.53% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/324.962 million

 

total customer deposits today:  584,363.950    oz

we had 3 withdrawals:

i) Out of CNT:  615,261.810 oz

ii) Out of Brinks:  2097.500 oz

iii) Out of Delaware:  1016.710 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 618,375.01   oz

We had 0 adjustments

 

 

total dealer silver: 126.641 million

total dealer + customer silver:  324.962 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The front month of July has an open interest of  3109 contracts, as we lost 292 contracts.  We had 213 notices served on TUESDAY, so we LOST a tiny 79 contracts or an additional 395,000 oz will NOT stand in this active delivery month of July as they received a London based forward and a fiat bonus for their effort.. They boys seem to have a problem serving upon our longs at the comex

 

 

The next month after July is the non active month of  August and here  sees its open interest rose by 13 contracts UP to 722

The big September contract month sees a LOSS of 647 contracts DOWN to 133,513.

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JULY 2020. contract month is represented by 203 contract(s) FOR 1,015,000, oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 13,456 x 5,000 oz = 67,280,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY.(3109) and the number of notices served upon today 203 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JULY/2019 contract month: 13,456 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (3109)- number of notices served upon today (203) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month.equals 81,810,000 oz.  (A WHOPPER )

WE LOST 79 CONTRACTS OR 395,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND FOR DELIVERY AS THERE SEEMS TO BE SCARCITY OF SILVER.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 83,873 CONTRACTS // volume very good/

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 77,645.,CONFIRMED VOLUME//volume  good/

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 77,645 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 388 million  OZ  55.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO + 0.72% ((JULY 8/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO +18% to NAV:   (JULY 8/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 0.72%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 17.28 TRADING 17.20///NEGATIVE 0.45

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JULY 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.75 TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 7.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1199.36 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 30//WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 29/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.61 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $5.03 TODAY: VERY STRANGE: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.46 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1175.39 TONNES

JUNE 25//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.6 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1176.85 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.50 TODAY;  A STRONG 3.21 TONNES ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.25  TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $25.50 TODAY/ANOTHER CRIMINAL PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1166.04 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 23.09 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.31 TONNES

JUNE 19/WITH GOLD UP$16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//; INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 18//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 16//WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $8.80 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 12//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 11//WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 6.55 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1135.05 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1129.50 TONNES

JUNE 9//WITH GOLD UP $16.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.63 TONNES OF GOLD AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1125.48 TONNES

JUNE 8//WITH GOLD UP $18.70 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.10 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1128.11 TONNES

 

JUNE 5//WITH GOLD DOWN $40.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.21 TONNES

JUNE 4//WITH GOLD UP $20.60: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD…A DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1133.37 TONNES

JUNE 3//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.15//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//A DEPOSIT OF 0.78 TONNES OF GLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1129.28 TONNES

JUNE 2//WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1128.40 TONNES

JUNE 1//WITH GOLD UP $1.30//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES OF GOLD//GLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1123.14 TONNES

MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $19.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///GLD INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 28//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS  AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD UP $.10 TODAY: A STRONG 2.34 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1119.05 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

JULY 8/ GLD INVENTORY 1199.36 tonnes*

LAST;  855 TRADING DAYS:   +255.54 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 755 TRADING DAYS://+433.65  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.118 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//VERY SURPRISING.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.753 MILLION OZ//

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ///

JULY 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.008 MILLION OZ

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.403 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.007 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 466,000 OZ TO PAY FOR STORAGE FEES AND INSURANCE//// AND A LARGE DEPOSIT OF 1.212 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 931,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 24///WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS// NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.473 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 486/454 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 19//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE!!  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 839,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486,454 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 932,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.293 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.261 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.361 MILLION OZ

JUNE 16//WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.118 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.100 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.982  MILLION OZ///

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.269 MILLION OZ AND 1.802 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 481.982 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 11//WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.89 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER  UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.849 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.605 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.849 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE WITHDRAWALS OF 932,000 MILLION OZ AND 1.491 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.240 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 648,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.663  MILLION OZ

JUNE 4//WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

 

JUNE 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 2//WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUMONGOUS 6.686 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 1//WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.56 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 466.629 MILLION OZ//

MAY 29//WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.796 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 463.273 MILLION OZ//

MAY 28//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.660 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.477 MILLION OZ//

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.817 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 8.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

502.753 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Tops $1,800/oz To Highest Level Since September 2011; Up Nearly 20% in 2020

◆ Spot gold has risen to above $1,802/oz today for the first time since September 2011, taking year to date 2020 gains to 20%.

 Gold has been eking out gains since mid-March as gold buyers diversify into the safe haven asset to hedge the risk that the looming global recession will have on risk assets, the dollar and fiat currencies.

 A close above $1,800/oz on a daily basis is an important test for gold and should it do so, it will likely see strong gains and a test of the record nominal high of $1,920/oz in the “long hot summer” ahead.

 In the short term, further profit-taking activity and price manipulation is possible but any weakness should be used to accumulate physical as gold’s fundamentals are as strong as ever and much higher prices are likely in the coming months.

 

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold tops $1,800 and hits highest level since 2011

Gold futures settle at nearly 9-year high

Gold steadies near 8-year high as virus cases surge

How soon coronavirus could deplete the government’s major trust funds

Trump administration moves to formally withdraw US from WHO

U.S. is ‘looking at’ banning TikTok and Chinese social media apps

ECB may ask banks to withhold dividends for longer

Gold Gains 19% To a New 8 – Year High: Why It Will Continue to Rise

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

07-Jul-20 1775.50 1789.55, 1423.77 1424.84 & 1576.11 1585.00
06-Jul-20 1774.40 1787.90, 1420.76 1429.43 & 1572.12 1578.36
03-Jul-20  1774.65 1772.90, 1426.29 1422.40 & 1580.33 1577.70
02-Jul-20  1771.85 1777.45, 1415.00 1421.60 & 1568.97 1577.13
01-Jul-20  1787.40 1771.15, 1444.90 1424.63 & 1592.93 1574.82
30-Jun-20 1770.70 1768.10, 1444.18 1436.58 & 1580.35 1577.32
29-Jun-20 1768.80 1771.60, 1434.67 1440.31 & 1571.23 1573.54
26-Jun-20 1762.10 1747.60, 1420.61 1414.51 & 1570.03 1559.91
25-Jun-20 1758.55 1756.55, 1412.64 1414.73 & 1565.29 1565.79
24-Jun-20  1775.70 1766.05, 1420.74 1416.90 & 1573.63 1567.55
23-Jun-20  1755.60 1768.90, 1409.85 1416.36 & 1556.17 1560.70
22-Jun-20  1745.45 1761.85, 1405.26 1418.11 & 1555.72 1567.17
19-Jun-20  1728.55 1734.75, 1392.17 1401.16 & 1541.18 1545.49
18-Jun-20  1732.65 1719.50, 1384.73 1383.51 & 1539.29 1532.93
17-Jun-20  1717.30 1724.35, 1368.69 1375.17 & 1527.88 1537.26

Access Latest Goldnomics Podcast (Part II) Here

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ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Andrew Maguire interviews yours truly on various topics but the most important one being the collapse of the fractional reserve gold banking system

(GATA/Andrew |Maguire/\Harvey Organ)

London metals trader Maguire and GATA consultant Organ discuss collapse of fractional-reserve gold banking system

 Section: 

10:41p Tuesday, July 7, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The imminent collapse of the fractional-reserve gold banking system is the primary topic of a discussion between London metals trader and Kinesis Money founder Andrew Maguire and GATA consultant Harvey Organ, a student of the gold and silver markets for 50 years.

They review:

— Organ’s lifelong interest in the monetary metals.

— His association with U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission member Bart Chilton.

— His testimony to the commission’s 2010 hearing on gold and silver futures at which it was revealed that trading leverage approaches a ratio of 100 to 1.

The mishandling of the gold and silver he was vaulting at Scotiabank in Toronto and his struggle to recover it.

— The unreliability of the exchange-traded silver fund SLV.

— The big recent changes in the gold and silver market, including the sudden transformation of the New York Commodities Exchange — the Comex — from a derivatives market to a physical market.

— What appears to have become a run on Comex gold and silver.

— And Organ’s expectation that only physical gold and silver markets will survive in the future.

The interview is nearly an hour long and can be viewed at You Tube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FrKC5BSmo4

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Alasdair is noticing what I am seeing:  a huge number of August contracts that refuse to roll together months. We are going to have a monster of a delivery in August

Alasdair Macleod: A potential crisis in Comex gold

 Section: 

8:30p Tuesday, July 7, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod writes tonight that it seems increasingly difficult for bullion banks to cover their short positions in gold futures in New York.

Macleod writes: “The August active contract runs off the board at the end of this month and bullion banks are likely to be forced into larg

e delivery volumes again. Furthermore, the exchange for delivery arbitrage facility between Comex and the London Bullion Market Association is broken, allowing Comex premiums to London spot to go unchallenged.”

Macleod’s analysis is headlined “A Potential Crisis in Comex Gold” and it’s posted at GoldMoney here:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/a-potential-crisis…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

A potential crisis in Comex gold

We are all used to the bullion banks covering their shorts on Comex by waiting until the speculators are over-bullish and vulnerable to mark-downs that trigger their stops. Algorithmic traders go from long to short in a heartbeat as well, and they dump contracts into a falling market, speeding up the decline. We should say at this juncture that the Managed Money speculators are short-term, attracted by futures leverage, and their gold position is often part of a wider risk strategy deployed by hedge funds. They do not intend to stand for delivery. The wider investment world taking strategic portfolio decisions does not often get involved with gold, so the Comex gold contract has been a secular play.

The table below shows a typical set-up, in this case July 2016. The Managed Money category (296,106 — net 259,129 contracts) is close to record long. Open interest was 633,000 contracts and the gold price was at $1360, having run up from $1040 the previous December.

Screen Shot 2020 07 07 at 2.27.20 PM

In the non-speculative category, the bullion banks (Swaps) had 56% of the shorts and the Producer/Merchants 44%. Mark-to-market value of the Swaps net short position was $25bn. Of the speculative longs, the managed money category (hedge funds) held 69%, and at 296,106 long contracts it was almost a record. There was a high level of bullishness; easy pickings for the bullion banks, who by the following December drove the price down to $1120, reducing their net shorts to under 50,000 contracts.

It was a game that evolved out of Comex futures being used simply to offset long bullion positions at the LBMA. Over time, bullion bank traders increased their trading position limits, as opposed to their pure hedging activity, making easy money jobbing the other side of Managed Money trades.

Now look at the current situation, with the gold price at decade highs ($1775) and open interest at 561,628 (30 June).

Screen Shot 2020 07 07 at 2.27.35 PM

In the non-speculator category, the Swaps are more short than they were in July 2016 despite open interest being 71,372 contracts lower. The mark-to-market value is record net short at $36.6 billion. What has happened is the Producer/Merchants have cut their positions, presumably deciding that hedging mine output is less important in the current inflationary environment. Consequently, the bullion banks are bearing 71% of the short exposure.

The speculator category makes this more interesting still. At 138,555 net long, hedge funds are only 25,000 contracts longer than average, and compared with their bullishness in July 2016 have hardly got going. It is the other categories, Other Reported and Non-reported have taken 56% of the long side, and they are not behaving like skittish hedge funds at all. These include family offices, the ultra-wealthy and foreigners through Globex who are standing for delivery as a means of getting their hands on physical bullion —171 tonnes from the June contract alone.

Conclusion

Bullion banks are between a rock and a hard place. For years they’ve been playing the hedge funds as an angler hooks and plays a fish. That game has ceased and there is no easy way for them to get level. For the moment they are trying to put a lid on the price, but the cost has been rising open interest, and therefore rising mark-to-market positions.

The August active contract runs off the board at the end of this month and bullion banks are likely to be forced into large delivery volumes again. Furthermore, the exchange for delivery arbitrage facility between Comex and the LBMA is broken, allowing Comex premiums to London spot to go unchallenged.

It is increasingly possible the gold contract is evolving into deep crisis, and that force majeure might have to be declared if, as seems increasingly inevitable, a wider banking crisis ensues.

END

Craig Hemke: are we heading for negative interest rates? If so gold will continue on its north bound trajectory

(Sprott/Hemke?GATA

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Sinking real rates drive gold higher

 Section: 

7:58p Tuesday, July 7, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold’s rising price closely correlates with the trend toward negative real interest rates, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke explains today in commentary at Sprott Money.

Hemke writes: “If gold’s primary competition as a Tier 1 asset is a U.S. treasury bond, and if that treasury bond now comes with a negative, inflation-adjusted return — then suddenly your non-edible pet rock looks pretty good as a store of value and fiat devaluation hedge.”

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Real Rates Drive Gold Higher” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/real-rates-drive-gold-higher-craig-hemk…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

Spot Gold Tops $1,800 For First Time Since 2011, Silver Breaches $19

Precious metals are extending yesterday’s gains with spot gold topping $1,800 for the first time since Nov 2011.

Futures are soaring this morning…

This is the highest for spot gold since Sept 2011…

Silver is also soaring, with futures topping $19…

Is the soaring rhetoric between US and China renewing doubts about the USDollar’s future?

As Peter Schiff recently noted, any realistic assessment of the economy should reveal at best it will recover from a depression to a recession. And it seems clear that the biggest driver is the Federal Reserve. So, you should ask yourself this question: do you expect the Fed to roll back its extraordinary monetary policy any time soon?

The answer seems pretty clear — no. In fact, the Fed shows no signs of backing off its monetary Hail Mary. The minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting show the central bank remains committed “to do whatever we can, for as long as it takes.”

As Peter noted in a recent podcast, the next shoe to drop is the dollar. And virtually nobody is ready for a currency crisis.

They don’t understand the damage that the Fed has done to the economy. They don’t understand how the Fed inflated the prior bubbles, or how this one is even worse. And they don’t get how everything the Fed is doing now is making the problems they don’t even understand much worse and setting up an outcome that they haven’t even contemplated. I mean, nobody is prepared for stagflation – for a situation where the economy is weak, unemployment rises, yet we have more inflation, and we have a weak dollar; we have rising gold prices – the exact environment we’re going to have. Nobody on Wall Street is prepared for it.”

When you look at the big picture and the trajectory of central bank policy, there is no reason to expect the bull run in gold to slow down anytime soon.

Get back to work Mr.Gilson

END
Due to the criminal
conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0143/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0149   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 58.10 POINTS OR 1.74%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 153.52 POINTS OR 0.59%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 176.04 POINTS OR 0.78%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 96.95/Euro RISE TO 1.1285

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.53/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 40.61 and Brent: 43.02

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.45%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.20% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.40%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.65: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.10

3k Gold at $1804.00 silver at: 18.48   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 16/100 in roubles/dollar) 71.17

3m oil into the 40 dollar handle for WTI and 43 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.53 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9409 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0624 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.45%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.65% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.39%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.8651..

Futures Drift As Gold Soars

S&P futures traded in a narrow range even as European stocks slid amid new tensions between Washington and Beijing, as well as worries that an alarming rise in coronavirus caseloads across the country pose a risk to the recovery in business activity and will hit consumer spending. The dollar was flat as gold continued its surge, rising  above $1,800 and rapidly approaching its Sept 2011 all time high.

Global markets have been struggling for traction ever since the Fed’s balance sheet started shrinking modestly in mid-June…

… after a sharp rally last week amid concern it’ll take a long time for the broader economy to recover from the pandemic. Many Americans are planning to spend less on things like movies, event tickets or at bars, even as states allow businesses to start re-opening, according to Bloomberg.

On Tuesday the Nasdaq notched yet another intraday record high but all the three main stock indexes finished lower as investors booked profits following a strong run after a batch of upbeat data strengthened the case for a bounce back in economy.

European shares gave up gains early in the trading session after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said regional leaders will probably fail to agree on a massive spending plan aimed at reviving their economies. Negotiations at a summit next week will be “very tough” and will likely need to continue throughout the summer, he said.

“It’s not unusual for stocks to take a breather at this point,” Susan Schmidt, a portfolio manager at Aviva Investors, said on Bloomberg TV. “We could see ourselves in a bit of a trading range in the next couple of weeks,” before U.S. earnings season ramps up.

Asian stocks were little changed, with communications rising and industrials falling, after falling in the last session. Most markets in the region were up, with Jakarta Composite gaining 1.8% and the Shanghai Composite rising 1.7%, its seventh daily rise in a row to the highest level since the 2018 start of the U.S.-China trade war, with Nanjing Iron & Steel and Jilin Yatai posting the biggest advances.

Trading volume for MSCI Asia Pacific Index members was 69% above the monthly average for this time of the day. The Topix declined 0.9%, with Teac and Airtech Japan falling the most. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.5%. Emerging-market equities resumed gains, heading for the highest level since February.

China stocks rose even as HSBC Holdings slumped after a report that some of Donald Trump’s advisers proposed a move to destabilize Hong Kong’s currency peg to the dollar as a way of punishing China.

Meanwhile, China on Wednesday said it will restrict visas for U.S. officials for what it called “egregious” behavior over Tibet,  reciprocating a move announced by Secretary of State Michael Pompeo a day earlier.

Eastern European currencies weakened, while gains for the Mexican peso and South African rand limited losses on the MSCI Inc.’s gauge for emerging-market exchange rates. Stock market gains in China have even pushed the country’s financial publications to caution investors about overheating. But as The Trump administration is said to be considering options to punish China for recent moves to chip away at Hong Kong’s political freedoms, markets “appear to be learning to look past the noise,” according to Credit Agricole’s Eddie Cheung. “While valuations would suggest that there is ground for China’s markets to continue to rally, it remains to be seen whether that alone can continue to be a driving force regionally, especially with Western markets trading more tentatively,” the Hong Kong-based strategist said in note.

In rates, Treasuries were slightly weaker across the curve on low volumes, with long-end yields higher by 1bp and front end little changed. Price action creates small concession in 7- to 10-year sector for $29b 10-year note auction at 1pm ET that may draw a record low yield. Treasury 10-year yields hover around 0.65% ahead of auction, steepening 2s10s by 0.8bp; bunds outperform by 3.5bp vs. Treasuries, gilts by 2.5bp. Futures volumes as of 7am ET were 70% to 90% of 20-day average levels across the curve, Bloomberg reported. German Bunds bull-flattened, outperforming Treasuries.

In FX, the dollar erased a decline as investors measured signs of renewed political tension between the U.S. and China. Hong Kong’s Dollar remained at the strong end of its established trading range after a report that advisers to President Trump suggested undermining the currency’s peg to the greenback after Beijing’s moves to curb the island’s political freedoms. Australia’s dollar weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers after rising infection rates in the nation’s second-most populous state and S&P Global Ratings warned that the return to lockdown in Victoria would put pressure on its economic recovery. “From an economic point of view, this is potentially disastrous,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist with CMC Markets Asia Pacific. “Forex traders are certainly expressing their growth outlook worries by selling the Aussie, and we’re likely to see support for the havens like the dollar, yen and Swiss franc.”

In commodities, the biggest mover was once again gold, which continues its tremendous ascent, topping $1,800 an ounce, with silver needing to catch up.

Upside in WTI and Brent front month contracts were hampered by a surprise build in private inventories (crude stocks +2mln vs. Exp. -3.1mln), and the relevant headlines overnight were also on the bearish side with ADNOC set to boost oil exports next month and Total’s Port Arthur refinery said to be running at 60% capacity due to subdued demand.

Looking at the day ahead now, we have central bank speakers including ECB Vice President de Guindos and the Fed’s Bostic, while data releases from the US include consumer credit for May and the weekly MBA mortgage applications.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,143.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 367.88
  • MXAP up 0.07% to 164.44
  • MXAPJ up 0.5% to 544.63
  • Nikkei down 0.8% to 22,438.65
  • Topix down 0.9% to 1,557.23
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 26,129.18
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.7% to 3,403.44
  • Sensex up 0.04% to 36,687.46
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.5% to 5,920.30
  • Kospi down 0.2% to 2,158.88
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.6 bps to -0.445%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1286
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.6 bps to 1.077%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.0 bps to 0.415%
  • Brent futures down 0.2% to $43/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,797.93
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 97

Top Overnight News

  • Some top advisers to President Donald Trump want the U.S. to undermine the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the U.S. dollar as the administration considers options to punish China for the recent imposition of a security law in the former British colony.
  • The threat of U.S. action to undermine Hong Kong’s longstanding U.S. dollar peg is highly unlikely to become reality given the practical difficulties of pursing such a path and the damage it would do to U.S. interests, economists say.
  • HSBC Holdings Plc, which draws more than two-thirds of its pretax income from Hong Kong, slumped as advisers to U.S. President Donald Trump were also said to be discussing measures against banks there.
  • Boris Johnson warned Germany’s Angela Merkel that the U.K. is ready to do without a trade deal if the European Union wasn’t prepared to compromise.
  • Japan’s investors are flocking to Australia’s sovereign bond market, lured by cheaper currency-hedging costs and some of the highest yields among developed nations.

Asian equity markets were mixed as attempts to shrug off the weak handover from global peers were somewhat hindered by the record infection rates stateside and a slew of punchy US-China related headlines. ASX 200 (-1.5%) was subdued as Australia’s 2nd largest city heads into a 6-week lockdown and with the declines in the index led by notable losses in consumer stocks and financials, while Nikkei 225 (-0.8%) was pressured by the ongoing virus flare up in Tokyo where more than 100 new cases were reported for a 6th consecutive day, but with downside stemmed after data showed the largest increase in bank lending on record. Hang Seng (+0.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.7%) were supported as the latest coronavirus updates from Beijing showed zero new cases for a 2nd consecutive day although caution was also observed on the inauguration day of China’s national security office in Hong Kong and as reports continued to suggest increasing tensions between the world’s largest economies. This includes confirmation by US President Trump that he is looking at banning TikTok in the US and his administration also warned the Railroad Retirement Fund against Chinese investments due to risks of additional sanctions, while the White House is considering executive actions which involve targeting Chinese businesses operating in the US and aides were also said to propose undermining the USD/HKD peg although this was not put forward to President Trump and certain officials have opposed the idea. Finally, 10yr JGBs were initially copy as they conformed to the unsettled overnight tone across asset classes, but eventually edged only marginal gains amid a subdued risk tone in Tokyo and the BoJ’s presence in the market for JPY 870bln of government bonds with up to 5yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • AirAsia Is Said to Weigh Raising $234 Million Via Rights Issue
  • Itochu Makes $5.4 Billion Bid for Rest of Japan’s FamilyMart
  • Hong Kong’s Resilient Markets Just Knocked Down Another Big Test
  • Singapore in Survival Mode Looks to Reinvent Itself. Again

European stock markets initially attempted to nurse losses seen at the open before losing steam as the mid-week session goes underway [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.9%], following on from a mixed APAC lead overnight. Fresh fundamental newsflow has been light for the session, with the calendar also sparse, albeit key risk events, aside from COVID-19 US-China headlines, could include UK Chancellor Sunak’s fiscal unveiling alongside the European Commission’s potential compromise recovery fund proposal. Sectors are all in negative territory with a clear defensive bias, with the detailed breakdown also painting a similar picture. Financial names underperform, likely on the back of HSBC (-4.0%) amid reports President Trump’s aides were said to propose undermining the USD/HKD peg, although the idea had not been put forward to President Trump and certain officials opposed the idea. In terms of other individual movers, Nokia (-7.5%) shares extend on losses amid a negative broker move coupled with speculation that Verizon may be dropping the Co. as a 5G partner, Nokia stated that it continues working with Verizon amidst these reports. On the flip side, Deutsche Post (+0.8%) remains buoyed after reporting an improvement in Q2 prelim figures whilst noting FY22 EBIT in the least favourable case of EUR 4.7bln and the most favourable case in excess of EUR 5.3bln.

Top European News

  • Serbia’s Vucic Sees Rising Risk of Regional Conflict in Europe
  • Volkswagen Management Tumult Spills Over to Truck Subsidiary
  • Medtronic Is Said to Make Offer for Medical Device Maker Intersect
  • Analysts Applaud Deutsche Post Earnings, Dividend Proposal

In FX, the Dollar and its G10 currency counterparts are stuck in a rut after 2 volatile sessions, but ultimately no clear direction amidst fluctuating and flaky risk sentiment on coronavirus updates interspersed with economic data and surveys supporting the recovery from first wave pandemic lows. Major pairings are muted and the subdued state of affairs exemplified by the DXY showing little sign or inclination to stray too far either side of the 97.000 level that has been magnetic of late. Moreover, Wednesday’s agenda does not bode well in terms of market-moving potential, barring any surprises from UK Chancellor Sunak and/or an unscheduled event given a blank US agenda beyond weekly mortgage applications and then consumer credit.

  • CHF/EUR/CAD – All marginally firmer against the Greenback, but within relatively tight confines as noted above, as the Franc hovers just below 0.9400, Euro shy of 1.1300 where a hefty 1.9 bn option expiry resides and Loonie pivots 1.3600 ahead of Canadian housing starts and an update from Finance minister Morneau on the economy in context of measures taken to combat COVID-19.
  • JPY/XAU/NZD/GBP/AUD – The Yen remains tethered between 107.70-40 parameters with a light underlying bid that is also apparent in Gold as bullion continues its assault on Usd 1800/oz, while the Kiwi is still straddling 0.6550 and fractionally outpacing the Aussie around 1.0600 in cross terms due to the return to lockdown in Melbourne. As such, Aud/Usd is capped circa 0.6950 in similar vein to Cable on the 1.2550 axis in advance of the aforementioned Economic Update. Note, contacts are touting stops at 1.2530 that are currently being tested and could be filled in conjunction with the absorption of offers in Eur/Gbp close to 0.9000.
  • SCANDI/EM – Not much lasting reaction to weaker than forecast Norwegian GDP data hot on the heels of a drop in manufacturing output yesterday, with Eur/Nok flitting either side of 10.7000 and Eur/Sek likewise around 10.4300. However, more pronounced activity in the Hkd overnight following reports that the US may target the peg in response to China’s security legislation with the HKMA forced into concerted intervention.

In commodities, a choppy session thus far for the crude complex, albeit prices remain somewhat flat and within tight ranges amid a lack of notable catalysts. Overnight, upside in WTI and Brent front month contracts were hampered by a surprise build in private inventories (crude stocks +2mln vs. Exp. -3.1mln), while the relevant headlines overnight were also on the bearish side with ADNOC set to boost oil exports next month and Total’s Port Arthur refinery said to be running at 60% capacity due to subdued demand. On the flip side, EIA lifted 2020 world oil demand growth forecast by 190k BPD (to 8.15mln BPD Y/Y fall) but cut 2021 world oil demand growth view by 190k BPD (to 6.99mln BPD Y/Y increase) – with participants awaiting the IEA report on Friday. Looking ahead, aside from COVID-19 headlines and sentiment-driven moves, the complex will likely eye the weekly DoE release for confirmation of the Private Inventory data, whilst State-side production will also be in focus as some believe output has bottomed. Elsewhere, spot gold has extended on gains but has decoupled from its safe-haven status, whilst Dollar dynamics also provided little influence on prices. The yellow metal has eclipsed the 1800/oz mark for the first time since 2012 before immediately running into selling pressure at the key figure. Copper meanwhile briefly topped USD 2.8/lb to levels last seen in January amid supply woes coupled with hopes of a rebounding Chinese economy.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -1.8%
  • 3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $15.0b deficit, prior $68.8b deficit

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday I boasted about nearly 5 year old Maisie winning a race at Sports Day. I’ve since got the video from the school and I must admit if I was another parent I would be questioning whether she false started. Put kindly she anticipated the “B” of the Bang a bit too perfectly. Still a victory is a victory. On that the latest in my 15 month journey to remodel my golf swing left me finishing 3rd last in the first cup competition at my club after lockdown on Sunday. It was my worst round since I was 11. You may say that at least I wasn’t last. However I should add that the two below me were octogenarians who were only too delighted to be out after isolating during lockdown. Meanwhile I’ve been practising hard most evenings where I can. I have a heart to heart planned with my golf coach tomorrow night to see if there is any light at the end of the tunnel. He says I’m on the verge of a major breakthrough. I feel I’m on the edge of a breakdown.

Markets broke down yesterday, albeit nowhere near as much as my golf swing. A drip-feed of negative stories on the economic outlook as well as covid headlines from all around the world dampened investor sentiment. By the end of the session, the S&P 500 had fallen -1.08%, and unable to reach a 6th successive move higher which would have been a first since April 2019. Over 85% of the index was lower on the day, with the worst performing industries being energy (-3.18%) and banks (-3.16%). Tech stocks outperformed slightly, with the NASDAQ down -0.86%. The Dow Jones was the worst performer, down -1.51% (Boeing -4.8% and Goldman Sachs -3.9%). Bourses also fell across Europe with the STOXX 600 (-0.61%) and DAX (-0.92%) lower. Just like with the S&P, European banks were among the worst performers, with the STOXX Banks index down by -1.34%.

Markets in Asia are a bit more mixed this morning. While we’ve seen modest declines for the Nikkei (-0.24%), Kospi (-0.29%) and ASX (-0.61%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.74%) and Hang Seng (+0.34%) are up along with S&P 500 futures (+0.20%). The main talking point overnight has been a Bloomberg story suggesting that some top advisers in the Trump administration are weighing proposals to undermine Hong Kong’s dollar peg to the greenback as a way of penalizing China. However, the report added that the idea has not been pitched to senior levels of the White House which suggests that it hasn’t gained serious traction yet.

Back to yesterday and after Senate Majority Leader McConnell signalled a willingness to pass another stimulus bill with case numbers rising across the country, the White House announced they want the package by the first week of August. Vice President Pence’s top aide said, “we want to make sure that people that are still unemployed or hurting are protected but at the same time, we want to take into consideration the fact the economy is bouncing back and want to try to contain the amount of spending.” This is aligned with Senate Republicans who want to keep the overall price tag south of $1 trillion. President Trump said that there would be another round of stimulus checks for Americans, though it will likely be even more targeted this time around. With some states pausing reopening and even re-entering shutdowns, additional stimulus is likely needed in order for economic data to continue improving.

Meanwhile, the slowdown in reopenings continues to be driven by the US seeing high numbers of new cases. Texas had over 10,000 new cases in one day for the first time yesterday, with cases rising 5% compared to a weekly average of 3.9%. Daily increases in some other recent hot spots were below the weekly average, which while encouraging may still be experiencing after-effects of the holiday weekend. Florida reported a 3.6% rise in new cases, under the 5% 7-day average, however the 7-day rolling total of 61,360 cases was the highest yet. Fatalities rose by 1.7%, with the 7-day average at just under 48 per day. Arizona meanwhile recorded a record 98 new fatalities yesterday, however the data has clearly seen big lags on Sunday and Monday in the past. Overall the 7 day average of covid fatalities in the state is roughly 40 per day, while cases are rising by just under 3700 per day. When New York state was at 3700 and 8700 (similar to Florida now), it was seeing around 85 and 630 deaths per day, and so both Arizona and especially Florida are seeing better case fatality rates at this time. However, this could change and requires a high level of scrutiny as hospital conditions and capacity constraints are going to be different in different regions. Speaking of New York, the state continues to add more regions to its quarantine list, which is now 19 states long, with Delaware, Kansas and Oklahoma travellers all being asked to isolate for 14 days upon arriving. Overnight, the US Department of Health and Human Services has said that it is ramping up coronavirus testing in Louisiana, Texas and Florida as health officials attempt to get a firm grasp on how the fast-moving pandemic is evolving.

For more details on the current US virus outbreak and what it could mean for upcoming policy decisions, you can join a conference call today at 11:00 EDT/16:00 UK time hosted by our chief US economist Matt Luzzetti. He will be joined by two guest speakers to discuss the outlook for health policy and small businesses. You can find the full details here.

Back to markets and it’s fair to say that the huge pre-covid momentum into ESG was temporarily sidetracked by the pandemic. However this is undoubtedly a multi-year trend and there are signs the topic is springing back to life. Here at Deutsche Bank Research we have launched dbSustainability, a new offering with research reports focused on sustainability issues and spanning thematic, macro, quantitative and individual company analysis. Recent reports include; ‘ESG through the pandemic’. Luke Templeman, Thematic Research (link to report and video), ‘Decarbonisation: Can Mining & Steel sustain in a low carbon world?’ from Head of European Mining And Metals, Liam Fitzpatrick (link to report) and from Juliana Lee, Chief Economist, Asia, ‘Asia Thematic Analysis:Households’ ESG action’ (link to report). We will continue to put out research under this banner so best to let Luke.Templeman@db.com on my team know if you want to be added to any future reports. He is on hols but he’ll pick up and add you on Monday.

In terms of those economic stories we alluded to earlier, we firstly had some underwhelming numbers on German industrial production, which saw just a +7.8% increase in May. This was lower than the +11.1% rebound expected and still leaves IP -19.3% below its levels a year earlier. Furthermore, it comes just a day after some worse-than-expected data on factory orders, adding to fears that the German recovery won’t be as rapid as hoped for. Next, we had the European Commission’s summer economic forecasts, which revised down their economic forecasts for Euro Area growth both this year and next. They now see the economy contracting by -8.7% this year compared with -7.7% before back in May. And 2021 growth was revised down two-tenths to +6.1%. And finally, we had a warning from Atlanta Fed President Bostic in the FT yesterday, who said that the high-frequency data had pointed to a “levelling off” in activity. We also heard from the Fed’s Vice Chairman Clarida later who said that the Fed can turn to additional forward guidance and asset purchases if the economy needs more aid and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that “If we don’t get further fiscal support, things won’t come back as well as they could” while adding, with disruption from the virus lasting longer than expected, “this is a period where we need to be supporting both individuals and businesses who but for the pandemic would have been healthy.”

Given this negative newsflow yesterday, safe havens performed relatively strongly, and gold hit another milestone as it closed above its 2012 peak to reach an 8-year high of $1795/oz. Other metals performed reasonably well too, with copper up +0.78% to advance for a 6th successive session. Over in fixed income, there was clear differentiation in core sovereign bonds, with yields on 10yr Treasuries down -3.6bps and those on bunds up +0.2bps. However that mostly reflected a post European close rally for USTs. There was a further narrowing in peripheral spreads however, with yields on Italian 10yr debt over bunds falling by -3.8bps to 163bps, their tightest level since late March, and Greek spreads down -3.7bps to their tightest since late February.

Here in the UK, sterling was the strongest performing of the G10 currencies yesterday, as it strengthened by +0.46% against the US dollar. It comes ahead of Chancellor Sunak’s much-awaited “Summer Economic Update” before the House of Commons today, in which he’s expected to announce a package of measures to aid the economic recovery. We’ve already had some announcements in recent days, with Prime Minister Johnson announcing last week that £5bn of capital investment projects would be brought forward, as well as a subsequent £1.57bn package for the arts. Our UK economists’ base case is that Sunak will broadly stick to the mandate set out by PM Johnson last week, possibly topping up the package by another 0.2% of GDP, focusing particularly on apprenticeship schemes, and modest wage subsidies to get furloughed employees back into work. There’s certainly been a fair amount of speculation in the media as to what to expect, including reports that a Stamp Duty holiday could be announced on homes under £500k.

Elsewhere in Europe, we heard from ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, who said in an interview that positive confidence indicators “suggests that the recession could turn out somewhat milder than expected”. She also waded in to the debate on the EU recovery fund, saying to the Dutch newspaper NRC Handelsblad that “If most of the fund is made up of loans, this could create a public debt overhang after the crisis. That could then cause problems of its own.” It comes ahead of the summit of EU leaders in just over a week, which is scheduled to begin on 17 July.

There wasn’t a great deal of other data yesterday, though the number of job openings in the US unexpectedly increased in May to 5.397m (vs. 4.5m expected), while the number of hirings rose to a record high of 6.487m. Furthermore, in a sign of the labour market recovery, the quits rate of voluntary separations that generally correlates with economic strength ticked up to 1.6% from 1.4% the previous month, even if it still remained some way down from the 2.3% recorded in February. Our US Economist Matt Luzzetti noted that private quits rate is a good leading indicator for wage growth and it remained low at 1.8%, down from a 2.6% peak late last year. This indicated that there could be a collapse in wage growth in the coming months. The ratio of unemployed people per job opening remained elevated in May, with 3.9 unemployed per job opening. This compares to a sub-1.0 figures late last year, however it is well below GFC levels of over 6.0. Lastly, he noted that change in job openings can proxy for employment data and that doing so would suggest that job loss was much more extreme in March, less extreme in April, and not as robust in May, with 2.4m jobs created vs the NFP tally of 3.2m.

To the day ahead now, and one of the highlights will be the previously mentioned UK economic statement from Chancellor Sunak. Central bank speakers today include ECB Vice President de Guindos and the Fed’s Bostic, while data releases from the US include consumer credit for May and the weekly MBA mortgage applications.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 58.10 POINTS OR 1.74%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 153.52 POINTS OR 0.59%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 176.04 POINTS OR 0.78%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.51%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0143 /Oil UP TO 40.61 dollars per barrel for WTI and 43.02 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0143 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0149 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

China/USA

My goodness: over half of all FBI counterintelligence investigations is China related as they try and steel USA technoligy.

The USA must shun all contacts with them

(zerohedge)

Nearly Half Of FBI Counterintelligence Investigations China-Related: Wray

Nearly half of the FBI’s 5,000 or so active counterintelligence investigations are related to Chinese espionage, according to Director Christopher Wray.

“We’ve now reached the point where the FBI is opening a new China-related counterintelligence case approximately every ten hours,” said the FBI chief, speaking at an event hosted by the Hudson Institute.

“The greatest long-term threat to our nation’s information, intelligence property and to our economic vitality is the counterintelligence and economic espionage threat from China,” he added.

Additionally, China has been trying to steal US coronavirus research from American drug companies, academic institutions and health care companies, according to the Daily Callers Chuck Ross.

“At this very moment, China is working to compromise American health care organizations, pharmaceutical companies and academic institutions conducting essential COVID-19 research,” said Wray, adding “It’s the people of the United States who are the victims of what amounts to Chinese theft on a scale so massive that it represents one of the largest transfers of wealth in human history.”

“The stakes could not be higher, and the potential economic harm to American businesses and the economy as a whole almost defies calculation.”

Wray also described China’s efforts to harvest data on US citizens, saying “If you are an American adult, it is more likely than not that China has stolen your personal data. … Our data isn’t the only thing at stake here — so are our health, our livelihoods, and our security.”

And as Axiosnotes, Wray said Americans should keep three things in mind:

  1. China’s leaders believe they are in a “generational fight” to make China the “world’s only superpower by any means necessary.”
  2. Beijing uses a diverse set of methods to achieve its goals, including economic espionage, intelligence gathering, pushing for censorship at universities, and “malign foreign influence,” referring to covert and coercive attempts to make powerful people advocate for China’s interests in the U.S.
  3. China is taking advantage of America’s open system, while preserving its own closed system, such as by working through ostensibly private Chinese companies to achieve state goals.
 END
CHINA VS USA
The USA upper echelon is now targeting the Hong Kong peg in order to break China. The USA wants dollars to leave Hong Kong which will bankrupt China with their 40 trillion dollar USA liabilities.

Forget TikTok Ban, Trump Aides Discuss Busting The Hong Kong Dollar Peg To Punish China

While admitting that there are many pushing back against the idea, Bloomberg is reporting that the Trump administration is escalating its plans to hold China accountable for its recent global pandemic chaos and Hong Kong freedom oppression.

Secretary of State Pompeo told Fox News earlier in the day that the US was mulling the possibility of banning social media app TikTok in the US, but tonight Bloomberg reports that some top advisors have suggested the Washington should undermine the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the US dollar.

According to people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reports that the idea of striking against the Hong Kong dollar peg – perhaps by limiting the ability of Hong Kong banks to buy U.S. dollars – has been raised as part of broader discussions among advisers to Secretary of State Michael Pompeo but hasn’t been elevated to the senior levels of the White House, suggesting that it hasn’t gained serious traction yet.

As a reminder, we suggested that one major reason for China’s recent push for everyone and their pet rabbit to buy stocks (sending Chinese markets exploding higher) was dramatic investment outflows from China.

China-dedicated equity funds saw an 11th consecutive week of net outflows.

Taking a page of the Robinhood playbook, China is desperate to halt and reverse the massive equity outflows as it urgently needs the flow of US Dollars to reverse into Chinese markets, instead of away from. To do that, it needs to create an initial upward momentum in prices which halts the selling/outflows and prompts a reappraisal of Chinese asset values. Ideally, it will also capture the euphoria of US daytraders who will buy Chinese, not US stocks.

This potential ‘strawman’ to break the HKD peg comes a day after we noted the simple maths that if 500,000 Hong Kongers were to leave the city and take USD1m equivalent with them then ceteris paribus, the HKD peg would surely have to go as all FX reserves evaporated.

In recent weeks we have seen the HK authorities publicly state they will not impose capital controls – which as a key global financial center should always be unthinkable. Yesterday, after a Chinese official response strongly opposing the UK government making clear it will offer 2.9m Hong Kongers a path to citizenship, the HK authorities had to publicly disavow rumours of a travel ban on its citizens.

Yes, that’s where we stand.

What does monetary policy have to offer here?

Not much, because it is The Fed’s ZIRP policy (relative to HIBOR) that is forcing carry traders’ flow to buy Hong Kong Dollars (and lend them) against cheaply-funded USDollars.

As the chart above attempts to show, the relative spread between USD funding and HKD funding implies a stronger HKD which would ‘break’ the peg band (green dotted line) and thus Hong Kong Monetary Authority had to intervene to maintain that upper peg band.

The proposal reportedly faces strong push back from others in the administration who worry such a move would only hurt Hong Kong banks and the U.S., not China.

But the very fact that this serious monetary threat has been raised (or leaked) implies two things: 1) US authorities appear to want topunish banks based in Hong Kong (especially HSBC after Pompeo singled out HSBC’s “show of fealty”); and 2) it will force a response (or pre-response) from China, which could also ripple through becalmed markets and ruin the glorious gains in Nasdaq for retail bagholders everywhere.

As Pompeo said earlier in the week: “We’d love to preserve the freedom in Hong Kong; but if we can’t, we’re going to hold the Chinese Communist Party accountable.”

END

CHINA/IRAN

The USA is not happy with this:  China inks a military deal with Iran

(Watkins/OilPrice.com)

China Inks Military Deal With Iran Under Secretive 25-Year Plan

Authored by Simon Watkins via OilPrice.com,

Last August, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mohammad Zarif, paid a visit to his China counterpart, Wang Li, to present a roadmap on a comprehensive 25-year China-Iran strategic partnership that built upon a previous agreement signed in 2016.

Many of the key specifics of the updated agreement were not released to the public at the time but were uncovered by OilPrice.com at the time. Last week, at a meeting in Gilan province, former Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad alluded to some of the secret parts of this deal in public for the first time, stating that:

“It is not valid to enter into a secret agreement with foreign parties without considering the will of the Iranian nation and against the interests of the country and the nation, and the Iranian nation will not recognize it.”

According to the same senior sources closely connected to Iran’s Petroleum Ministry who originally outlined the secret element of the 25-year deal, not only is the secret element of that deal going ahead but China has also added in a new military element, with enormous global security implications.

One of the secret elements of the deal signed last year is that China will invest US$280 billion in developing Iran’s oil, gas, and petrochemicals sectors. This amount will be front-loaded into the first five-year period of the new 25-year deal, and the understanding is that further amounts will be available in each subsequent five year period, provided that both parties agree. There will be another US$120 billion of investment, which again can be front-loaded into the first five-year period, for upgrading Iran’s transport and manufacturing infrastructure, and again subject to increase in each subsequent period should both parties agree. In exchange for this, to begin with, Chinese companies will be given the first option to bid on any new – or stalled or uncompleted – oil, gas, and petrochemicals projects in Iran. China will also be able to buy any and all oil, gas, and petchems products at a minimum guaranteed discount of 12 per cent to the six-month rolling mean average price of comparable benchmark products, plus another 6 to 8 per cent of that metric for risk-adjusted compensation. Additionally, China will be granted the right to delay payment for up to two years and, significantly, it will be able to pay in soft currencies that it has accrued from doing business in Africa and the Former Soviet Union states.

Given the exchange rates involved in converting these soft currencies into hard currencies that Iran can obtain from its friendly Western banks, China is looking at another 8 to 12 per cent discount, which means a total discount of around 32 per cent for China on all oil gas, and petchems purchases,” one of the Iran sources underlined.

Another key part of the secret element to the 25-year deal is that China will be integrally involved in the build-out of Iran’s core infrastructure, which will be in absolute alignment with China’s key geopolitical multi-generational project, ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR). To begin with, China intends to utilise the currently cheap labour available in Iran to build factories that will be financed, designed, and overseen by big Chinese manufacturing companies with identical specifications and operations to those in China. The final manufactured products will then be able to access Western markets through new transport links, also planned, financed, and managed by China.

In this vein, around the same time as the draft new 25-year deal was presented last year by Iran’s Vice President, Eshaq Jahangiri (and senior figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and intelligence agencies) to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, Jahangiri announced that Iran had signed a contract with China to implement a project to electrify the main 900 kilometre railway connecting Tehran to the north-eastern city of Mashhad. Jahangiri added that there are also plans to establish a Tehran-Qom-Isfahan high-speed train line and to extend this upgraded network up to the north-west through Tabriz. Tabriz, home to a number of key sites relating to oil, gas, and petrochemicals, and the starting point for the Tabriz-Ankara gas pipeline, will be a pivot point of the 2,300 kilometre New Silk Road that links Urumqi (the capital of China’s western Xinjiang Province) to Tehran, and connecting Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan along the way, and then via Turkey into Europe.

Now, though, another element that will change the entire balance of geopolitical power in the Middle East has been added to the deal.

“Last week, the Supreme Leader [Ali Khamenei] agreed to the extension of the existing deal to include new military elements that were proposed by the same senior figures in the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] and the intelligence services that proposed the original deal, and this will involve complete aerial and naval military co-operation between Iran and China, with Russia also taking a key role,” one of the Iran sources told OilPrice.com last week.

“There is a meeting scheduled in the second week of August between the same Iranian group, and their Chinese and Russian counterparts, that will agree the remaining details but, provided that goes as planned, then as of 9 November, Sino-Russian bombers, fighters, and transport planes will have unrestricted access to Iranian air bases,” he said.

“This process will begin with purpose-built dual-use facilities next to the existing airports at Hamedan, Bandar Abbas, Chabhar, and Abadan,” he said.

OilPrice.com understands from the Iranian sources that the bombers to be deployed will be China-modified versions of the long-range Russian Tupolev Tu-22M3s, with a manufacturing specification range of 6,800 kilometres (2,410 km with a  typical weapons load), and the fighters will be the all-weather supersonic medium-range fighter bomber/strike Sukhoi Su-34, plus the newer single-seat stealth attack Sukhoi-57. It is apposite to note that in August 2016, Russia used the Hamedan airbase to launch attacks on targets in Syria using both Tupolev-22M3 long-range bombers and Sukhoi-34 strike fighters. At the same time, Chinese and Russian military vessels will be able to use newly-created dual-use facilities at Iran’s key ports at Chabahar, Bandar-e-Bushehr, and Bandar Abbas, constructed by Chinese companies.

These deployments will be accompanied by the roll-out of Chinese and Russian electronic warfare (EW) capabilities, according to the Iran sources. This would encompass each of the three key EW areas – electronic support (including early warning of enemy weapons use) plus electronic attack (including jamming systems) plus electronic protection (including of enemy jamming). Based originally around neutralising NATO’s C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) systems, part of the new roll-out of software and hardware from China and Russia in Iran, according to the Iran sources, would be the Russian S-400 anti-missile air defence system:

“To counter U.S. and/or Israeli attacks.”

The Krasukha-2 and -4 systems are also likely to feature in the overall EW architecture, as they proved their effectiveness in Syria in countering the radars of attack, reconnaissance and unmanned aircraft. The Krasukha-2 can jam Airborne Warning And Control Systems (AWACS) at up to 250 km, and other airborne radars such as guided missiles, whilst the Krasukha-4 is a multi-functional jamming system that not only counters AWACS but also ground-based radars, with both being highly mobile.

It is again apposite to note here that an entire EW company (encompassing the three core elements of EW) can consist of as little as 100 men and, according to the Iran sources, part of the new military co-operation includes an exchange of personnel between Iran and China and Russia, with up to 110 senior Iranian IRGC men going for training every year in Beijing and Moscow and 110 Chinese and Russians going to Tehran for their training. It is also apposite to note that Iran’s EW system can easily be tied in to Russia’s Southern Joint Strategic Command 19th EW Brigade (Rassvet) near Rostov-on-Don, which links into the corollary Chinese systems.

“One of the Russian air jamming systems is going to be based in Chabahar and will capable of completely disabling the UAE’s and Saudi Arabia’s air defences, to the extent that they would only have around two minutes of warning for a missile or drone attack from Iran,” one of the Iran sources told OilPrice.com last week.

An indication of what Iran hopes to receive in return its co-operation with China, and Russia, came last week when Zhang Jun, China’s permanent United Nations (U.N.) representative, in a statement to the Security Council, told the U.S.:

“To stop its illegal unilateral sanctions on Iran… The root cause of the current crisis is the U.S.’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018 and the re-imposition of unilateral sanctions against Iran.”

He also opposed the U.S.’s push for the extension of the U.N. arms embargo on Iran, which expires in October. “This has again undermined the joint efforts to preserve the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action],” Zhang said, and added: “The [JCPOA] agreement was endorsed by the U.N. Security Council [UNSC] and is legally binding.”

He concluded: “We urge the U.S. to stop its illegal unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction, and return to the right track of observing the JCPOA and Resolution 2231 [of the UNSC].”

Securing China’s support was a key reason for the original secret part of the deal agreed last year, along with that of Russia, as the two countries have two-fifths of the total Permanent Member votes on the UNSC, with the others being the U.S., the U.K., and France. Aside from this support and the US$400 billion+ of investments pledged by China, the other reason that Iran has agreed to such Chinese (and Russian) influence in its country going forward is that China has guaranteed that it will continue to take all of the oil, gas, and petchems that Iran requires.

END

CHINA/AUSTRALIA

Australia warns its citizens not to travel to China as theyrisk arbitrary detention

(zerohedge)

Australia Warns Citizens They Risk Arbitrary Detention While Traveling Through China

The Australian government has issued a provocative new warning sure to damage already rocky and worsening relations with Beijing, updating travel advice for China telling Aussies they risk ‘arbitrary detention’ while traveling through the communist-run country.

Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs revised the travel advice on Tuesday with this new phrase:

“Authorities have detained foreigners because they’re ‘endangering national security’. Australians may also be at risk of arbitrary detention.”

 

Image via Bloomberg

Similar to the situation with the Trump administration, there’s been a developing tit-for-tat leveling of accusations between Australia and China, including last week’s charge from Beijing that Australia is waging an “espionage offensive”.

Already there had been travel warnings related to coronavirus restrictions when for months prior as authorities in China struggled to get the pandemic under control, but this latest official travel guidance for Aussies is somewhat unprecedented given its politically charged nature.

It will also no doubt hurt the Chinese tourism industry, given Australians are among the most frequent foreign travelers when it comes to southeast Asia.

The move could also be linked to the new Hong Kong national security law which went into effect July 1st, and has since been roundly condemned by the US, UK, and European countries. Australian media has cited Feng Chongyi, an Associate Professor in China Studies at the University of Technology Sydney, to explain of the travel update:

“In a sense that it subjects almost everyone into arbitrary detention,” he added according to Australia’s ABC. Local media has also warned of a “hostage diplomacy” type scenario in which China could detain Australian citizens on trumped up charges in order to gain leverage in any negotiations.

Ironically China then issued its own travel advisory on Canada Monday, reading in part that citizens must remain “cautious” while traveling there because of “frequent violent actions by law enforcement agencies in Canada, which have triggered many demonstrations.”

END
CHINA/USA
Ping Pong diplomacy in reverse
(zerohedge)

Sino-US Tit-For-Tat Visa Restriction Spat Erupts Over Tibet

The Trump administration said on Tuesday it would impose travel bans on Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials that are restricting foreigners’ access to Tibet. Then, in a classic tit-for-tat, China responded Wednesday with visa restrictions on Americans, reported Reuters.

On Tuesday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo slapped an unspecified number of CCP officials with visa restrictions, limiting their mobility within the US.

Pompeo condemned the CCP for blocking foreign diplomats, tourists, and journalists to Tibet.

“The United States seeks fair, transparent, and reciprocal treatment from the People’s Republic of China for our citizens,” Pompeo said. “We have taken several steps to further this goal. Unfortunately, Beijing has continued systematically to obstruct travel to the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) and other Tibetan areas by U.S. diplomats and other officials, journalists, and tourists, while PRC officials and other citizens enjoy far greater access to the United States.”

On Wednesday, in apparent retaliation, China imposed visa restrictions on Americans who have had ‘extreme’ behavior over Tibet.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told reporters in Beijing: The US “should stop going further down the wrong path to avoid further harming China-U.S. relations and communication and cooperation between the two countries.”

Zhao said China supports travel and tourism to the Himalayan region, it has adopted “certain management and protection measures for foreigners visiting Tibet in accordance with law and regulations” due to its “special geographical and climatic conditions.”

Washington has tried for years to ease restrictions on foreigners’ travel to Tibet. Human rights activists claim Beijing has suppressed local culture for decades.

US-China relations have plunged to their lowest point in decades since the trade war began (1Q18), coronavirus pandemic, Hong Kong debacle, Taiwan, and hostilities in the South China Sea.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY/DEUTSCHE BANK

Basket case Deutsche bank has been kept alive by central bank QE.  Now Deutsche bank is sounding the alarm bell that trading revenue boom is ending…so depositors be aware

(zerohedge)

Depositors Beware: Deutsche Bank Warns Trading Revenue Boom Is Ending

With Europe’s benchmark interest rates still staunchly in negative territory, the long-suffering European banks, epitomized by fading German ‘national champion’ Deutsche Bank, have benefited from the surge in trading activity during the first half of 2020 that helped its Q1 results surprise to the upside.

But as DB CEO Christian Sewing explained in an interview with Bloomberg published Tuesday, that boost from trading revenues and the explosion of debt issuance that has provided some badly needed wiggle room to Sewing as he continues with his epic “turnaround” of Deutsche unfortunately wont’ last.

Deutsche Bank AG’s booming trading desks are set to see the frenetic activity of the first six months ease as the exceptional market situation created by the coronavirus ebbs, according to Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing.

The German lender will see a slowdown in the second half after benefiting from continued momentum in markets through June, Sewing said during a webcast hosted by Bloomberg News on Tuesday. While the bank is on track or ahead on its restructuring plan despite the pandemic, he said, debt capital markets is one area that’s set to decelerate in the coming months.

Sewing is one year into a radical overhaul that rolled back much of Deutsche Bank’s aggressive expansion as a global investment bank to focus on its traditional business of corporate banking, though recently he’s relied more heavily on revenue from fixed-income trading. The lender had a strong start first half in its securities business as debt security issuance boomed and clients sought hedges in volatile markets.

“The investment bank is clearly on track,” Sewing said, adding that was also in part due to its change of emphasis and not just market volatility in the first six months. In the second half, “there will be for sure a little bit of slowdown” because not all factors that helped in the recent period will be repeated.

To try and mitigate the lapse, Sewing said the bank will continue to expand its IG credit business as the bank seeks to restore the franchise to its former glory, or at least some semblance of what it once was.

DB’s trading unit saw a 13% gain in revenue in Q1, though that was less than its US competitors.

Of course, the real takeaway here, as one analyst pointed out, is that, if DB sees a pullback in trading revenue, it’s going to need to compensate for that in other areas. Which is where passing the costs of negative interests rates on to customers comes into play. Back in April, the bank finally broke and started adding charges to accounts over €100,000.

Bottom line: If the decline that Sewing’s warning about comes to pass, any Germans who haven’t already should consider buying a safe.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey/USA/Egypt etc

Turkey is getting clocked after huge airstrikes hit their base in Libya. The belligerent Erdogan must remove the themsleves from Libya and all parts of the middle east.  They are totally bankrupt.

(Southfront)

Turkish Forces Lick Wounds After Airstrikes Hit Their Base In Libya

Submitted by SouthFront,

After a short break, the military confrontation between the Libyan National Army mainly backed up by Egypt and the UAE and the Turkish-backed Government of National Accord has once again entered an open phase.

On July 5, aircraft of the Libyan National Army conducted nine pinpoint airstrikes on the Turkish-operated al-Watiya Air Base in western Libya. According to the LNA, the strikes destroyed a Hawk air-defense system, several radars and a KORAL electronic warfare system. The Hawk system and other equipment were deployed to the base by the Turkish military in early July.

Turkish state media confirmed the incident saying that the strikes “targeted some of the base’s equipment, which was recently brought in to reinforce the base, including an air-defense system”. Pro-Turkish sources claimed that the airstrikes were carried out not by the LNA, but rather by the Egyptian or UAE Air Force. According to them, the warplanes took off from Egypt’s Sidi Barrani Air Base. However, according to the LNA, the strikes were delivered by its aircraft deployed in Libya. Commenting on the situation, the GNA said that it would respond at the “right place and at the right time.”

While the GNA in fact has no resources to conduct extensive airstrikes deep inside the territory controlled by the LNA, Ankara will have to respond to this attack in some way if it really wants to demonstrate that Turkey is committed to achieving a military victory (or at least a partial military victory) in the conflict in Libya.

Therefore, Ankara is apparently set to continue its offensive operations by the hands of the GNA and Syrian groups in the countryside of Sirte. This strategic port city is now the main priority of Turkish-led forces.

On the other hand, if Turkey continues escalating the conflict, it may force Egypt and the UAE, the main backers of the LNA, to provide direct military support to the LNA and directly intervene in the conflict. In this case, the Libyan ‘civil war’ will officially turn into a war between Turkey and the UAE-Egypt bloc.

END

6.Global Issues

MICHAEL EVERY ON THE MARKETS..

(courtesy Michael Every)

Rabobank: “Markets Are, Across The Board, Totally Divorced From Reality. Facts No Longer Matter”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Make It So!

Back in the 1980s there was a lot of discussion at my college about “post-modernism”. At that point it was in a strictly cultural sphere. It meant different things to different people, but I personally found enlightenment in the example of Jean-Luc Picard, captain of the starship Enterprise. To be “post-modern”, I was told, was to be a cultural creation from beyond the modern era. The original Star Trek TV series had been modern (indeed, ultra-modern for the time), but it had clearly been based on pre-modern concepts, such as novels like Horatio Hornblower and Westerns. On the other hand, Star Trek: The Next Generation was based on Star Trek, and hence was “post-modern”.

Post-modernism today seems to be next generation too. The encyclopaedia of Britannica definition is: “…in Western philosophy, a late 20th-century movement characterized by broad scepticism, subjectivism, or relativism; a general suspicion of reason; and an acute sensitivity to the role of ideology in asserting and maintaining political and economic power.”

As the critics of post-modernism point out, it believes that it is not opinions that are multifaceted, but facts: there are no facts, and those that assert there are do so from a position of power. Yesterday, for example, social-media lit up after a Tweet from a US teacher claiming that “2+2=4” was an example of Western imperialism and that there are other valid ways of looking at it. This was not a high-level maths reference to Gödel’s incompleteness theorems.

Obviously, the numerals expressing 2+2 =4 are Arabic, and the concept itself emerged simultaneously in ancient China, Persia, and India. We should all also know the chilling Orwellian reference to that equation from ‘1984’: and that when Winston Smith is tortured by the Party, and head swimming so he can no longer see properly is asked how many fingers are being held up (four), and Smith says he no longer knows, is told that this is a “good start”.

So where do we get to post-modern markets? Well, as repeatedly stressed of late, markets are, almost across the board, totally divorced from reality. Facts no longer matter to them, almost as if they were not facts.

We have become used to equities ignoring that Covid-19 is still spreading wildly. Now they have to ignore that the WTO is being forced by scientists to admit the virus may be airborne and carried for tens of meters, meaning that any indoor venue or non-filtered office air-conditioning system is the perfect transmission vector for it. No 1- or 2-meter rule makes any sense if that is proved to be true. How will recently re-opened summer venues cope when we are all huddled indoors in perfect virus-spreading conditions? Yes, equities were down overnight, but not by enough to reflect that emerging fact.

Bloomberg today reports some members of the Trump White House have been pushing for the US to break Hong Kong’s USD currency peg by not letting HK banks used the USD, as punishment for Beijing’s imposition of the draconian new national security law. Yes, this is only some members, and neither Pompeo nor President Trump have apparently yet been given the option to approve. However, this is a nuclear bomb being assembled on the table in front of us pointed directly at Hong Kong and US-China relations…and the reaction in the Hang Seng today was to rise 0.3% at time of writing.

How can this be the case? Because we have post-modern markets. Don’t like facts? Ignore them; and do so knowing that central banks are using their enormous powers to over-rule them. The virus is airborne? So we will buy more assets! The HKD peg is under real threat, politically? So we will buy more assets! Truly, nothing means anything except what that power dictates.

As central banks and Jean-Luc Picard both like to say, “Make it so!

Except, of course, both are mere mortals. Picard just came back as a feeble old man in a very post-modern Star Trek series where he is treated by most of the cast as if he is an elderly parent trying to learn to use Skype for the first time during lockdown. Moreover, as central banks divorce asset prices further and further from reality, so they help drive the political populism on the right and left that believes facts don’t exist and that all that matters is power. This was alluded to in a recent Martin Wolf op-ed in the Financial Times pleading with someone, anyone to fix capitalism before liberal democracy falls apart – without providing not a single concrete suggestion of how this can be done without neoliberalism doing so.

Meanwhile, if the core argument that the unthinkable on Hong Kong can’t happen as that would mean US stocks would go down (heaven forfend!), be aware that right up until the post-modernists run central banks, the central banks will be the full post-modern anyway. The Fed is not going to set US foreign policy, but it would have to react to it – so why not buy stocks if needed in a geopolitical crisis? Clarida yesterday said there are no limits to how much the Fed can buy, after all, even if he did not say stocks. But stocks, corporate bonds, junk bonds, mortgage bonds, government bonds – these are all just words, aren’t they? Rightly, and in more ways than one, think about the power.

end

We know that the COVID 19 virus causes inflammatory damage to the lungs, the heart and in some cases inflammation to the blood system in our bodies.  I was not aware until now that the brain can also be affected

a must read….

(zerohedge)

 

People With Mild COVID-19 May Experience ‘Serious’ Brain Disorders: UK Neurologists

COVID-19 is quite the enigma. For most patients who contract it – especially those under the age of 65, symptoms are mild or non-existent. For symptomatic patients who draw the short straw, the disease can be brutal. Symptoms can include lung issues, heart damage, loss of taste and smell, tingling in fingers and toes, skin disorders, and the fact that it lasts for months in some people.

Now, we find that a small number of recovering COVID-19 patients with mild cases may suffer ‘mild to potentially fatal brain disorders’ triggered by the virus, according to a new manuscript by neurologists from the UK.

On Wednesday, they published the details of more than 40 patients whose complications ranged “from brain inflammation and delirium to nerve damage and stroke.” The neurological issues were some patients’ first and primary symptom. 

The cases, published in the journal Brain, revealed a rise in a life-threatening condition called acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (Adem), as the first wave of infections swept through Britain. At UCL’s Institute of Neurology, Adem cases rose from one a month before the pandemic to two or three per week in April and May. One woman, who was 59, died of the complication.

A dozen patients had inflammation of the central nervous system10 had brain disease with delirium or psychosis, eight had strokes and a further eight had peripheral nerve problems, mostly diagnosed as Guillain-Barré syndrome, an immune reaction that attacks the nerves and causes paralysis. It is fatal in 5% of cases. –The Guardian

“We’re seeing things in the way Covid-19 affects the brain that we haven’t seen before with other viruses,” said Michael Zandi, a senior author on the study and a consultant at the institute and University College London Hospitals NHS foundation trust (via The Guardian).

“What we’ve seen with some of these Adem patients, and in other patients, is you can have severe neurology, you can be quite sick, but actually have trivial lung disease,” he added.

“Biologically, Adem has some similarities with multiple sclerosis, but it is more severe and usually happens as a one-off. Some patients are left with long-term disability, others can make a good recovery.”

One coronavirus patient, a 55-year-old woman with no prior history of mental disorders, began hallucinating the day after she was discharged from the hospital – claiming she saw monkeys and lions in her house. She would also repeatedly remove and put on her coat. The woman was readmitted and gradually improved with the use of antipsychotic medication.

A 47-year-old woman included in the paper reported a headache and numbness in her right hand one week after she began experiencing a cough and a headache. She became drowsy and unresponsive, and required the surgical removal of a portion of her skull to relieve pressure on her swollen brain, according to The Guardian.

“We want clinicians around the world to be alert to these complications of coronavirus,” said Zandi, who urged healthcare providers to report cognitive symptoms to neurologists.

“The message is not to put that all down to the recovery, and the psychological aspects of recovery,” he said. “The brain does appear to be involved in this illness.

The full range of brain disorders caused by Covid-19 may not have been picked up yet, because many patients in hospitals are too sick to examine in brain scanners or with other procedures. “What we really need now is better research to look at what’s really going on in the brain,” Zandi said.

One concern is that the virus could leave a minority of the population with subtle brain damage that only becomes apparent in years to come. This may have happened in the wake of the 1918 flu pandemic, when up to a million people appeared to develop brain disease. –The Guardian

“It’s a concern if some hidden epidemic could occur after Covid where you’re going to see delayed effects on the brain, because there could be subtle effects on the brain and slowly things happen over the coming years, but it’s far too early for us to judge now,” said Zandi. “We hope, obviously, that that’s not going to happen, but when you’ve got such a big pandemic affecting such a vast proportion of the population it’s something we need to be alert to.”

END

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1285 UP .0010 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS//PANDEMIC// /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.53 DOWN 0.039 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2547  UP   0.0006  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3593 DOWN .0012 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 10 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1285 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 58.10 POINTS OR 1.74% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 153.52 POINTS OR 0.59%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1,51%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 153.52 POINTS OR 0.59%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 58.10 POINTS OR 1.74%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 1.51% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 176.04  POINTS OR 0.78%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1802.00

silver:$18.47-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.65% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.39 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 96.95 UP 7 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.40% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD:  0.02+%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.41%//DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,21 DOWN 0 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 80 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: riseS TO –.44% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.65% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1325  UP     .0051 or 51 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.45 DOWN .123 OR YEN UP 12  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2586 UP .0046 POUND UP 46  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 63 basis points to 1.3541

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0043    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0056  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.8616 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.02%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 0.66 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.39 UP 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.57 DOWN 31  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 42.37  0.56%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 113.18 POINTS OR .92%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 21.16 POINTS 0.38%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 58.50 POINTS or 0.63%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 11.43 POINTS OR 0.05%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 54.92 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 61.83 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.05  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.15 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 15 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.24 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  40.86//

 

 

BRENT :  43.26

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.66. up one basis point…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 01.39 ..up 2 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1331 ( UP 37   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.33 DOWN .341 (YEN UP 34 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.49 DOWN 39 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2611 UP 70  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.8631

 

 

the Russian rouble 71,21   UP 0.11 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 11 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3508 UP 97 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.43%

 

The Dow closed UP 177.58 POINTS OR 0.69%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 148.61 POINTS OR 1.44%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  28.30 CLOSED DOWN 1.33

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION:. 0.283%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Bullion, Bitcoin, & Big-Tech Bid As Dollar Dumped

The dollar was dumped overnight (following chatter of US attacks on the HKD peg) and extended losses during the day…

Source: Bloomberg

“I love the smell of burning credibility in the morning…”

US equity markets were manically bid at the cash open then faded into the European close, then was ramped all the way back to the highs again…

And gold spiked further (spot back above $1800)…

Pushing the barbarous relic to 9 year highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Chinese stocks were up again overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

TSLA dared to drop today…

As Nasdaq pushes on to record-er and record-er highs, the median US stock is back near two-month lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks and bonds remain gravely decoupled…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were very modestly higher today (2Y unch, 30Y +1bps) remaining lower on the week at the longer-end…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar’s losses were the offshore yuan’s gains, pushing back below 7/USD…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were higher on the day with Ripple outperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

All the major commodities were higher on the day led by Silver…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI dropped right after the unexpected (and large) crude build but the machines rejected that and sent it back above $41…

Gold in Yuan hit a new record high today…

 

Gold continues to track (inversely) with US real yields…

Source: Bloomberg

Copper’s recent out performance over gold has decoupled commodities from bonds…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we ask, is the world losing faith in fiat?

Source: Bloomberg

And is that what’s driving US equities higher, just like in Venezuela and Zimbabwe?

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

As explained above the uSA is targeting the Hong Kong peg.

(zerohedge)

HSBC Leads Markets Lower As White House Targets Hong Kong Dollar Peg

For the first time in 30 years, the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the greenback is facing a legitimate threat, and not – as Kyle Bass once articulated, and as we explained earlier this week – simply because a mass exodus from the city would likely drain the HKMA’s FX reserves, making the maintenance of the peg impossible. For years, the flood of foreign capital into Hong Kong guaranteed the peg’s security.

When Bloomberg reported last night that the Trump Administration was mulling a plan to deliberately break the pegand ratchet up pressure on Hong Kong as retribution for Beijing’s adoption of a new National Security law that severely encroaches on the freedoms guaranteed to Hong Kongers in the British ‘Basic Law’, the reporter carefully noted that some in the administration are pushing back against the plan, for fear it would only hurt US banks and Hong Kongers, while doing little to dissuade Beijing.

Unsurprisingly, the news has undermined shares of global banks that derive sizable portions of their revenue from Hong Kong, leaving financials as the worst-performing stocks across Asian and European trading on Wednesday. HSBC led declines on the Stoxx Europe 600, as the bad news also drove Investec to cut its rating on HSBC.

The bank with the most to lose here is, of course, HSBC,which shed another 4.3% in London trading, its biggest daily drop since June 11, when officials in Beijing singled out the bank for not enthusiastically backing the HK security law. Having since offered the lip service that was due, the bank’s shares have still considered to suffer, as the White House has imposed sanctions on Chinese officials over abuses tied to Xinjinag, while moving to eventually revoke Hong Kong’s “special status” under US law.

HSBC’s biggest UK-based regional rival operating in HK, StanChart, falls as much as 2.3%.

According to BBG, the US government is looking for a way to punish Hong Kong-based banks, and HSBC, which is suddenly caught in the middle of a geopolitical dispute, might find itself in Washington’s crosshairs. Investec analyst Ian Gordon wrote that he was “running out of arguments” to hold HSBC. Even plans to fire 35,000 workers as part of a sweeping restructuring sadly just isn’t enough.

END

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Dow, S&P Tumble Into Red, Erase Opening Spike As EU Close Nears

Of course, Nasdaq is holding its gains (for now). The opening panic-buying has given way to panic-selling as the European close approaches…

Small Caps are the biggest laggards.

Is it time for stocks to catch down to bonds?

end

ii)Market data/USA

This is not good for the uSA economy as credit card holders paid off their debt instead of incurring new debt

(zerohedge)

Plunge In Consumer Credit Continues As Americans Repay Record Amounts Of Credit Card Debt

One of the striking changes to US consumer behavior spawned by the economic shutdowns from the coronavirus pandemic, was the unprecedented surge in personal savings which  exploded to a record 32% of disposable personal income before easing modestly last month to 23.2%.

Now, thanks to the latest consumer credit data released by the Fed, we know what much of that saving went to: paying down debt.

 

According to the Fed’s latest G.19 statement, in May, total consumer credit tumbled by another $18.28 billion, which while less than the record $68.8 billion crash in April, was far below expectations for $15 billion drop.

 

Just like March and especially April, most of the credit repayment took place in revolving credit which shrank by another $24.3 billion in May (after declines of $21.5BN in March and $58.2BN in April) as US consumption literally went into reverse and instead of spending wildly as it does every other month, usually spending what it can’t afford, US consumers repaid the most on their credit cards ever.

 

In fact, over the past three months, US consumer have paid down a staggering $104 billion in credit card debt, bring the total outstanding credit card debt below below $1 trillion. Indicatively, the first time total credit card debt hit $1 trillion was back in December 2007, which means that the deleveraging of the past 3 months has sent US credit card balances to a 13 year low!

 

At the same time, there was a modest return to normalcy in non-revolving debt, i.e., student and auto loans, which after plunging by a near record $12 billion last month, has again rebounded and was up $6 billion in May.

Going back to the aggressive repayment of credit card debt, that is quite an ominous development for a US economy which is 70% reliant on stable – in many cases credit-card funded – consumer spending. Ominous, but not unexpected, because in a time of virtually no visibility on job prospects and how the pandemic is resolved, instead of doing what they do best, i.e. spend, Americans not only saved money but also went into credit paydown mode, crippling an economy where 70% of total output is a direct result of consumer spending; and needless to say, the tens of millions of Americans (depending on whether one believes the initial claims or the BLS jobs report) who have lost their jobs are not going to go out and spend like drunken sailors any time soon.

So how long until this shocking plunge in consumer spending reverses? The answer is that nobody knows, but until US consumers feel comfortable enough to once again “charge it”, there can be no recovery.

What we find most surprising, however, is that in this day and age when the Fed has effectively institutionalized moral hazard and where failure is no longer punished as capitalism is now officially dead and zombie existence is rewarded, Americans still care enough about their credit rating to pay down their own debt even as corporations and the country go on a historic debt issuance spree which everyone knows will never be repaid.

Our advice to Americans with credit cards: go crazy, after all if everyone defaults – and gets a default – it’s the same as nobody defaulting.

end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

A joke of an organization.  The uSA should stop funding the UN

(zerohedge)

UN Investigation Finds US Soleimani Killing “Unlawful” As There Was “No Evidence” Of Imminent Threat

The United Nations released the results of an investigation into the January 3rd US drone strike on Iran’s top IRGC general Qasem Soleimani calling the killing  “unlawful” on Tuesday.

The report by Agnes Callamard, UN special rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, further concluded it violated the UN charter and deemed it an “arbitrary killing” — especially given, according to her findings, there exists no evidence that Soleimani was planning an imminent attack on the United States or its personnel.

 

Via Reuters

In the days and weeks after the targeted assassination which set the region on war footing, and which shocked the world, the Trump administration and especially Mike Pompeo and Pentagon leadership cited precisely that US soldiers in the Middle East were facing “imminent” attack under orders from Gen. Soleimani.

The UN report highlighted that never before has a member nation claimed ‘right to self-defense’ as rationale for killing a state official in a third country.

Some of the UN report highlights, which will be presented before a UN Human Rights session (a UN body that the US pulled out of two years ago) on Thursday, are as follows

Arbitrary killing:

“In light of the evidence that the US has provided to date, the targeting of General Soleimani, and the deaths of those accompanying him, constitute an arbitrary killing for which, under IHRL (international human rights law), the US is responsible.”

Violated UN charter, given there was—

“insufficient evidence provided of an ongoing or imminent attack,” Callamard wrote.

No evidence of imminent attack plotted on the US:

“No evidence has been provided that General Soleimani specifically was planning an imminent attack against US interests, particularly in Iraq, for which immediate action was necessary and would have been justified.”

Strike “unnecessary” and “unlawful”:

“No evidence has been provided that a drone strike in a third country was necessary or that the harm caused to that country was proportionate to the harm allegedly averted.

“Soleimani was in charge of Iran’s military strategy, and actions, in Syria and Iraq. But absent an actual imminent threat to life, the course of action taken by the US was unlawful.”

* * *

Of course, any potential punitive recommendations against Washington will only ever be merely symbolic. Iran will, however, make much of it in its media as well as in any potential unlawful killing international lawsuit against the US and decision-makers in the Trump administration. Tehran has already demanded massive compensation for the killing from the US.

The US has taken issue from the start over Soleimani being considered by many European countries as a ‘state official’. Washington has instead deemed he and the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as terrorists, and thus legitimate targets of US military action.

end
CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/USA/BRAZIL/GLOBE

US Tops 3 Million COVID-19 Cases As ICUs In Florida, Texas Hit Max Capacity: Live Updates

Summary:

  • US coronavirus cases top 3 million
  • US reports ~44k new cases Tuesday
  • 56 Florida ICUs hit full capacity
  • Texas hospital occupancy at more than 90%
  • World reports 5k new deaths
  • US sees highest daily death toll since June 9
  • Brazil president says he’s taking hydroxychloroquine

* * *

The US coronavirus outbreak crossed a grim milestone of over 3 million confirmed cases on Tuesday as more states reported record numbers of new infections, while dozens of hospitals in Florida are facing a shortage of ICU beds.

Meanwhile, the US reported 44,953 new cases on Tuesday (remember, these numbers are reported with a 24-hour delay).

Globally, the world reported roughly 5k new deaths yesterday as the US saw its death toll top 130k.

Roughly 20% of new deaths yesterday were recorded in the US as it suffered the biggest jump in deaths in a month.

When we left off last night, 43 ICUs in the state of Florida had reached full capacity.

The number of patients in ICU beds has climbed from 180 on June 25 to 343 as of July 7, according to the data. There were 1,656 Covid-19 patients in hospital as of July 7, with 175 on ventilators, up from 885 patients in hospital on June 25, when there were 84 on ventilators.

At last count, 56 ICUs across Florida have reached capacity, according to CNN.

While Florida’s hospitals appear to be seeing the most problems with capacity, Texas isn’t far behind. Nearly 80% of the state’s hospital beds are in use, and ICUs are filling up in San Antonio and Houston, which are some of the biggest cities in the entire US. As the AP reports, leaders are warning their health facilities could become overwhelmed in the coming days.

While rising cases have reflected rising tests, and while deaths have continued to trend lower despite yesterday’s spike, Texas has a positive test rate of 13.5%, more than double the share from a month prior, even as the number of tests being carried out each day have increased substantially.

In North Houston, one hospital, United Memorial has been rapidly dedicating more and more space to virus care. Now, 88 of 117 beds are devoted to such patients, and it’s weighing the possibility of going ‘all-COVID-19’.

Finally, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro said Wednesday, one day after confirming he had tested positive for the virus, that he was taking hydroxychloroquine as part of his treatment regimen, and that he was feeling fine.

As the White House ratchets up pressure on Hong Kong, which reported 24 new COVID cases, with 19 of them locally transmitted infections, and 5 imported cases

END

In the uSA there is a mass exodus of citizens from the inner cities to the surbs.

(zerohedge)

Real Estate Expert Warns ‘Exodus’ From Cities Will Last Two Years 

The virus pandemic and socio-economic shockwave across the US (read ad hoc protests and riots), and more specifically in top metro areas, has created much uncertainty for city dwellers who are now fleeing for suburbs.

Over the past several months, we have documented city dwellers leaving big cities for suburbs, small towns and communities to isolate from the virus and socio-economic tensions unfolding in many metros.  While the exodus from cities is still in the early stages, it’s now believed by at least one expert, that city dwellers could continue to flee US metros for the next 18-24 months.

“I think the next 18 to 24 months are going to show a lot of exodus out of central business districts, as you can expect,” Hessam Nadji, president and CEO of Marcus & Millichap, who spoke with CNBC on Tuesday.

“We’re seeing there’s a lot of office vacancy, for example, in the suburbs that have now been absorbed; there’s a lot of demand for rental homes that we’re seeing because people are fleeing especially hot spots like New York, but … you just have to keep a long-term view on it,” Nadji said.

He said over the next several years – suburban areas will see exponential demand. Already, real estate searches for suburban zip codes surged 13% in May, according to data via Realtor.com.

We’ve already noted that New York and the Bay Area are seeing residents migrate to suburbs.

Nadji said people are also fleeing to the outskirts of Seattle and Miami.

“It was a trend that was starting to happen already over the last two or three years. You have to remember that 60% of millennials are now in their 30s,” Nadji said. “While they really enjoyed the lifestyle of central business districts and the lack of commuting … we were beginning to see them migrate back out as they were getting married and having kids,” and the “health crisis has really accelerated that pattern.”

He said the outbound migration from cities would also result in businesses chasing employees to the suburbs. Nadji said people won’t “permanently” lose interest in cities – at the moment, this is an “overreaction” to the ongoing virus pandemic.

“We saw that [demand sap] post 9/11 and those tragedies, of course, because of the reluctance to want to locate in high-visibility high rises in downtown[s],” Nadji explained. “Eighteen to 24 months later, that [concern] began to dissipate. So, it’s a normal reaction. I just don’t think we should count out the long-term prospects of the benefits of central business districts.”

 

What’s different today is that the country has stumbled into one of the worst public health crises in decades, tens of millions of people are unemployed, and the entire transformation of the economy, which includes working remotely will lead to permanent population loss for city centers – where living standards are in declines – as well as cost of living as a Manhattan studio costs the same as a “mansion” in the suburbs.

Guess who is most excited about this exodus? Well, baby boomers, because they bought/built oversized McMansions, with brick on front and stucco on back, in the late 1990s and early 2000s – and whose attempts to offload this real estate has been met with poor demand… until now.

END
Brook brothers are now Broke brothers as we now facing another clothing operation that we must sit shiva for
\(zerohedge)

Broke Brothers – Oldest US Men’s Retailer Files Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

The forced work-from-home lockdowns have created an environment where the average working man (or woman or other) in America is now only visible from the shoulder up on his Zoom calls.

This new COVID normal of (in)formal meetings seems to have been the last nail in the coffin of America’s most iconic menswear retailers as Brooks Brothers has just filed for bankruptcy (just weeks after Men’s Wearhouse owner Tailored Brands considered the same).

A month ago we noted that  the 202 year-old clothing retailer Brooks Brothers was in talks with banks about raising financing for a potential Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing amid the coronavirus pandemic, according to a report by CNBC.

Brooks Brothers Chief Executive Claudio Del Vecchio, told The New York Times at the time that while he was not “eager” to consider a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing, he would not rule it out.

It appears, despite The Fed’s massive credit easing, that no one would rescue the oldest men’s retailer and the closely-held company, which is owned by Italian businessman Claudio Del Vecchio, filed for bankruptcy protection in Wilmington, Del.

Brooks Brothers was acquired by the British retail chain Marks and Spencer Group PLC in 1988. It was sold in 2001 to Retail Brand Alliance Inc., which was controlled by Mr. Del Vecchio, whose father founded Luxottica Group SpA, the Italian eyeglass maker. It changed its name to Brooks Brothers Group Inc. in 2011.

Brooks Brothers has more than 250 stores in North America and 500 worldwide.

As Fox News notesBrooks Brothers was facing challenges before the health crisis forced nonessential retailers to temporarily close their stores. U.S. corporations had turned increasingly casual, and fewer men were buying suits. Once people started sheltering at home, they turned to even more casual attire such as sweatpants.

The filing follows other retailers who sell men’s workwear (JCPenneyNeiman Marcus, and J.Crew) who have all filed for bankruptcy during the pandemic.

Brooks Brothers is expected to attract buyers, other people familiar with the situation said. Authentic Brands Group LLC, a licensing company that owns the Barneys New York and Sports Illustrated names, is a potential suitor, they said.

*  *  *

end

The next show to fall: United Airlines after warning that 36,000 jobs is at risk

(courtesy zerohedge)

United Airlines Sinks After Warning 36,000 Jobs At Risk

It’s commonly known the travel and tourism industry has been devastated by the virus-induced recession, but recent headlines from the Trump administration, touting a V-shaped recovery, mask the true nature of the downturn.

As we find out on Wednesday morning (as per a new Yahoo Finance report) – United Airlines Holdings has indicated it might be forced to layoff 36,000 workers, or 45% of its workforce, as passenger demand is expected to remain weak in the back half of the year.

“According to United, 36,000 workers — or 45% of U.S. positions — may be impacted or laid off by October 1. Although 3700 have already taken an early-out option, the potential losses affect 15,000 flight attendants, 11,000 airport staffers, 5500 maintenance positions and 2250 pilots, the company told reporters on a conference call,” reported Yahoo Finance

The pandemic has crushed airline stocks, even though Robinhood daytraders, using their Trump stimulus checks, panic bought airline shares, outpaced hedge funds in returns in the first half – are now finding out these stocks are slumping once more.

The Trump administration set aside $25billion in coronavirus stimulus for airlines via the CARES Act (United Airlines received about a fifth of that) – yet it’s proving that it’s not enough as the downturn in travel and tourism could last several years.

A United Airlines executive said on Wednesday the virus pandemic is “the worst crisis to hit the airline industry and United Airlines,” adding that, “We can’t count on additional government support to survive.”

United is burning upwards of $40 million per day despite a schedule that has been cut to 20% of its normal capacity.

“The United Airlines projected furlough numbers are a gut punch, but they are also the most honest assessment we’ve seen on the state of the industry,” said Sara Nelson, president of the Association of Flight Attendants union, which represents 50,000 workers at 19 airlines, including United.

end
This should be interesting:  Biden embraces Sanders and AOC green new deal. Someone should ask Biden:  “how on earth are you going to pay for this?”
(zero hedge)

Biden Embraces ‘Green New Deal’ In Newly Released “Biden-Sanders” Policy Platform

While Joe Biden was hanging out in the basement, his team was hard at work liaising with the remnants of the Bernie Sanders campaign people to craft a policy agenda that, they hope, will motivate the young people who came out in droves for Bernie to come out and vote for Biden.

And unsurprisingly, Biden’s plan is a hodge-podge of mostly incompatible ideas obviously intended to pander to the white working class swing voters in the Midwest, and the young AOC-worshipping DSA members and crypto-marxists who powered Sanders to his second straight second-place finish in a Democratic presidential primary.

According to information released by the campaign, the outline of Biden’s plan covers four areas: A push to ‘buy American’ and incentivizing American jobs, as well as embracing ‘clean energy’ (mostly via extreme policy proposals outlined in the Green New Deal), while also working to boost the “caring” economy – whatever that means. The Biden campaign said it would commit to bolstering child care and elder care, as well as racial equity.

Here’s one quote from the policy paper released by the campaign:

Ensure the U.S. achieves a 100% clean energy economy and reaches net-zero emissions no later than 2050. On day one, Biden will sign a series of new executive orders with unprecedented reach that go well beyond the Obama-Biden Administration platform and put us on the right track. And, he will demand that Congress enacts legislation in the first year of his presidency that: 1) establishes an enforcement mechanism that includes milestone targets no later than the end of his first term in 2025, 2) makes a historic investment in clean energy and climate research and innovation, 3) incentivizes the rapid deployment of clean energy innovations across the economy, especially in communities most impacted by climate change.

He followed this up with a video promising to take “drastic action” to confront climate change.

Biden will follow this all up with a speech on Thursday’ detailing his agenda in the run up to the Aug. 17 Democratic convention.

“Biden wants to get to the same place that many to his left want to get to but he firmly believes that it will take an incremental path to get there and that you can’t leapfrog the political reality that he has come to know in many decades in politics,” said Jared Bernstein, who is advising the campaign after serving as Biden’s chief economic adviser in the vice president’s office.

Some in the media described the proposals as an attempt to address areas discussed by the right and the left.

But we see it as what it truly is: A clumsy attempt to pander to swing voters.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

British Judge Orders Christopher Steele To Pay Damages To Russian Bankers Over Dossier Lies

Authored by John Solomon via JustTheNews.com,

A British judge ruled Wednesday that Christopher Steele violated a data privacy law by failing to check the accuracy of information in his infamous dossier, ordering the former spy’s firm to pay damages to two businessmen he wrongly accused of making illicit payments in Russia.

Justice Mark Warby of the High Court of England and Wales ordered Steele’s firm, Orbis Business Intelligence, to pay a modest 18,000 English pounds – about $22,596 in American currency – each to Petr Aven and Mikhail Fridman as compensation for a violation of Britain’s Data Protection Act 1998 .

Warby ruled that while Steele had a national security interest to share his intelligence with U.S. and British authorities, several of the allegations in Memo 112 of the Steele dossier were “inaccurate or misleading as a matter of fact.”

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

U.S. is ‘looking at’ banning TikTok and Chinese social media apps, Pompeo says

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/us-looking-at-banning-tiktok-and-chinese-social-media-apps-pompeo.html

Bloomberg: China’s state media struck a more measured tone on Tuesday, after earlier publishing commentaries that highlighted the case for buying shares. Two newspapers urged investors to be rational: the Securities Times — one of China’s most widely circulated financial publications — said investors should be mindful of potential risks and not use the market as way to make a fortune overnight.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eyes-china-unstoppable-stocks-460-015642119.html

China’s rally fizzled after all four major state-owned financial media outlets had front page commentaries on the stock market today, with all articles saying largely the same – calls on market participants to be rational…  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-fall-europe-slides-chinese-media-talks-back-rally

White House Wants Stimulus by August Recess With $1 Trillion Cap

  • Payroll tax cut sought, administration wants to curb spending
  • Need to balance income support with work incentives, aide says

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-07/white-house-wants-stimulus-by-august-recess-with-1-trillion-cap

China’s HNA Group received virus relief loans handed out by the U.S. government

Chinese companies including conglomerate HNA Group Co. and affiliates of a state-owned defense giant were among recipients of the billions of dollars in coronavirus-relief loans handed out by the U.S. government.  HNA Group North America LLC and HNA Training Center NY LLC got between $350,000 and $1 million each in bailout loans meant to help struggling businesses pay American workers hit by pandemic lockdowns, according to a list posted by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Continental Aerospace Technologies Inc., a maker of aircraft engines owned by Aviation Industry Corp. of China, received between $5 million and $10 million, the data showed.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-07/china-s-hna-group-got-u-s-bailout-funds-through-american-units?sref=Hny5JH2p

House ‘Squad’ members unveil bill to defund police and give reparations   https://trib.al/JQGHl8O

@SteveGuest: Democrat Rep. Ilhan Omar calls for “dismantling” of the U.S. “economy and political systems”     https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1280561422569701376

@DineshDSouza: What is it called when a sitting member of U.S. Congress calls for the “dismantling” of the U.S. economy and the entire system???

WaPo: Trump administration sends letter withdrawing U.S. from World Health Organization over coronavirus response    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/trump-united-states-withdrawal-world-health-organization-coronavirus/2020/07/07/ae0a25e4-b550-11ea-9a1d-d3db1cbe07ce_story.html

Professor who accurately predicted Trump’s 2016 win ups the ante ‘bigly’ for 2020 (362 to 176 EVs)

Professor Helmut Norpoth is upping the ante in the 2020 election, saying Trump has a 91% chance of winning in November…Norpoth’s model has correctly predicted 24 of the last 26 presidential elections.

    Pointing to a CNN model that showed presumptive 2020 Democratic nominee Joe Biden running away with the election, gaining as many as 400 electoral votes, Dobbs asked Norpoth about the “science” behind such polling.  “Well, I don’t go by opinion polls, I go by the real polls…I go by what happens in the primary elections… in those primary elections, especially in the early ones, Trump did very well, andBiden, as many of you may have forgotten by now, struggled in New Hampshire, where he came in fifth.”…  https://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/07/03/professor-who-accurately-predicted-trumps-2016-win-ups-the-ante-bigly-for-2020-942376

Nancy Pelosi’s husband among lawmaker-linked loan recipients

https://nypost.com/2020/07/06/nancy-pelosis-husband-among-lawmaker-linked-loan-recipients/

GOP Sen Ron Johnson Backs Away From Proposal to Eliminate Columbus Day, Says Intent Has Been Mischaracterized – “I didn’t want to end the celebration of Columbus Day,” Johnson told The Federalist Tuesday. “My entire intent was simply not give federal workers an 11th day off.”…On Wednesday, Fox News’ Tucker Carlson slammed the pair of Republican senators for bowing to the anarchal mob in their proposal to nullify Columbus Day as statues of the explorer fall.

    “It’s easier to give them what they want, so that’s what they’re doing,” Carlson said…Following criticism, Johnson and Lankford pulled back from their proposal to terminate Columbus Day with the replacement of Juneteenth…  https://thefederalist.com/2020/07/07/ron-johnson-backs-away-from-proposal-to-eliminate-columbus-day-says-intent-has-been-mischaracterized/#.XwSngMAfWyw.twitter

For weeks, Carlson has been slamming GOP Senators and Reps for their silence and cowardice – and he’s getting results.  Republicans fear him more than any other media figure due to his large GOP following.

Tucker Carlson: We Cannot Let Democrats Run This Country Because They Hate It                             

“Loving the people you lead, caring deeply about them is the basic prerequisite of leadership. The leaders of today’s Democratic Party do not. They despise this country. They have said so. They continue to. That is shocking, but it is also disqualifying. We cannot let them run this nation because they hate it. Imagine what they would do to it.”

https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2020/07/06/tucker-carlson-we-cannot-let-democrats-run-this-country-because-they-hate-it/

Recently, Trump has been taking cues from Carlson.   Will DJT use Carlson’s allegation?

Half of Americans fear violent bid to overthrow government in next decade

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/polling/shock-poll-half-voters-say-violent-attempt-overthrow-us-government-possible

@CWBChicago: @Chicago_Police department is disbanding its gang, gun, and saturation teams citywide effective July 23, per document provided to CWB Chicago.  Cops currently in those units can go back to district patrol, ask to join CDP “summer mobile/strike force” unit, or choose other options, document says.  District-level gang teams continue. The change affects units assigned to the five area-level deployments.  [Chicago’s violent crime epidemic could worsen significantly.]

Surge in meth seizures shows NYC turning into ‘breaking bad‘  https://trib.al/p3ALIUr

Ghislaine Maxwell has copies of Jeffrey Epstein sex tapes, ex-friend says https://trib.al/zmjRI5e

Ghislaine Maxwell hires Christian Everdell, lawyer who helped take down ‘El Chapo’

She is being repped by Christian Everdell, who spent more than a decade as an assistant US attorney for the Southern District of New York… “He will of course do what is in the best interests of his client, but no doubt he will be talking to her about the benefits of becoming a cooperating witness,” tweeted Jennifer Rodgers, who used to be his supervisor as a fellow federal Southern District of New York prosecutor…

https://nypost.com/2020/07/07/ghislaine-maxwell-hires-lawyer-who-helped-bring-down-el-chapo/

Ex-NSC Dir (fired by Gen. McMaster for allegedly warning Trump about the coup) @RichHiggins_DC:

Shortly after Comey became FBI Director he was approached by a student at the Academy, who told him that the prints around the Academy depicting Washington and other founding fathers offended himComey ordered their removal. This was 7 years ago.  FBI Academy classrooms are videotaped and if the instructor goes off script, they’re counseled and, if no corrections are made, soon relieved of instructional responsibilities. New Agents deploy with the idea that the priority is to make sure they don’t offend anyone

@KCBSRadio: The Martinez couple caught on video painting over the approved #BlackLivesMatter mural on Fourth of July are being charged with a hate crime, according to a release from the Contra Costa County District Attorney’s office. [It’s 1984 in America, girls and boys!]

https://twitter.com/KCBSRadio/status/1280633105712209920

Ex-Giant not surprised by NFL players’ [& MSM] silence over DeSean Jackson’s anti-Semitic post

“There was more outrage, people were more upset with Drew Brees than they were with DeSean Jackson,’’ Schwartz, a former NFL offensive lineman, told The Post, referring to Brees stating he could not accept anyone kneeling during the national anthem…  https://trib.al/967w1M8

@TheBabylonBee: Nation’s Hospitals to Replace Doctors with Celebrities Doling out Medical Advice   https://babylonbee.com/news/hollywood-hospitals-replace-medical-doctors-with-celebrities

Well that is all for today

I will see you THURSDAY night.

One comment

  1. Harvey, why did you stop posting the gofo rates?

    Like

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