JULY 30//GOLD AND SILVER DOWN ON OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY RAID ON OTC EXPIRY: GOLD DOWN $10.00 TO $1951.30//SILVER DOWN 97 CENTS TO$23.27//GOLD COMEX FINISHES THE MONTH WITH 29.88 TONNES STANDING//SILVER HAS 86 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR DELIVERY//CHINA VS USA//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE; THE GLOBE//USA RECORDS ANOTHER 1.4 MILLION AMERICANS SEEKING UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS THIS WEEK//USA 2ND QUARTER GDP PLUMMETS BY 32.9%//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$:  1951.30  DOWN $10.00  The quote is London spot price (cash market)

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$23.27// DOWN 97 CENTS  London spot price ( cash market)

 

Options expiry on the big London LBMA/OTC is scheduled for July 31. at exactly 10 am est// 3pm London time

The bankers will do everything in their power to keep gold/silver from rising.  They are hurt very badly as huge number of options are now in the money

stay tune…

 

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1955.70  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $23.47//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

AUGUST GOLD:   XXX  CLOSE  1::30 PM  SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE AUG  (BACKWARD  $XX)

OCT GOLD:  $XX  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE OCT /: $XX  ($ NORMAL CONTANGO)

DEC. GOLD  $XX   CLOSE 1.30 PM      SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC   $XX   ($XX ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO)  OR .03% ABOVE CONTANGO OR EXCESS CONTANGO)

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER SEPT COMEX CLOSE;   $XX…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :  XX CENTS  PER OZ  (8 CENTS ABOVE CONTANGO)

SILVER DECEMBER  CLOSE:     $XX  1:30  PM SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC.       : XX  CENTS PER OZ  ( 28 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

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COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today:1/1

issued 0

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,953.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/29/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 07/31/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 H JP MORGAN 1
690 C ABN AMRO 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 1 1
MONTH TO DATE: 9,607

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 100 OZ  (0.0031 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  9607 NOTICES FOR 960700 OZ  (29.881 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JULY

 

 

596 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 2,980,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 17,294 for 86.470 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $10,925  DOWN 177

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $11,095 DOWN 5

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $10.00 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD//

 

 

 

GLD: 1,241.96 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 97 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

 

A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE  SLV:

A WITHDRAWAL OF 931,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//

 

 

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 571.352  MILLION OZ./

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 372 CONTRACTS FROM 184,020 UP TO 184,392, AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN  OI OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.07 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, ACCOMPANYING  A HUGE INCREASE  IN SILVER STANDING  AT THE COMEX FOR JULY.  WE HAD A GOOD NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1062 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A HUGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   JULY: 0  AND SEP 601 DEC:  0 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  601 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 601 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 601 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 11.075 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 7 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ INITIALLY IN JULY.

 

WEDNESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 7 CENTS ).. AND,OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. THE SMALL GAIN AT THE COMEX WAS ACCOMPANIED BY : i)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A HUMONGOUS INCREASE IN STANDING OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY,  STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A GOOD NET GAIN OF 1062 CONTRACTS OR 5.310 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

JULY

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF JULY:

25,671 CONTRACTS (FOR 21 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 25,671 CONTRACTS) OR 128.355 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1222 CONTRACTS OR 6.112 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY: 128.355 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 18.33% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,265.77 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EXP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EXP                               128.355 MILLION OZ/ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO RISE EXPONENTIALLY AGAIN)

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 372, WITH OUR  7 CENT GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///WEDNESDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 601 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  973 CONTRACTS (WITH OUR  $0.07 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)//

 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 601 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A SMALL SIZED INCREASE OF 372 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 7 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $24.34 // WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.9305 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 132% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  JULY  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 596 NOTICE(S) FOR 2,980,000  OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 86.470 million oz
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 701 CONTRACTS TO 599,330 AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED GAIN OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG RISE IN PRICE  OF $12,45 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// WEDNESDAY// WE  HAD HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JULY, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE AND A STRONG GOLD SPREADER LIQUIDATION. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $12.45 .

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  58

 

WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 4489 CONTRACTS  (13.97 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3788 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT .; AUG 2576 AND OCT: 20 DEC: 1192; FEB: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 3788.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 600,085. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4489 CONTRACTS: 701 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3788 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 4489 CONTRACTS OR 16.31 TONNES. WEDNESDAY, WE HAD A GAIN OF $12.45 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 13.97 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR  SUPPLIED INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT ROSE $12.45).AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WAS ALSO UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

 

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (3788) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (701 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  5244 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A TINY INCREASE IN GOLD  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT JULY MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION; 4) SMALL COMEX OI GAIN AND .5) FAIR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE 6) CONTINUAL STRONG GOLD SPREADER LIQUIDATION... AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//WEDNESDAY//$12.45.

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD

 

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST FOR GOLD:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUGUST), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY : 99,152 CONTRACTS OR 9,915,200 oz OR 308.41 TONNES (21 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4721 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 21 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 308.41 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 308.41/3550 x 100% TONNES =8.68% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3259.43  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       308.41 TONNES SO FAR..(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS REVERSE COURSE AND ARE NOW INCREASING!)

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 372 CONTRACTS FROM 184,020 UP TO 184,392 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO;   1)   HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A HUMONGOUS INCREASE STANDING AT THE SILVER COMEX FOR JULY AND  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 601 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 2692 AND DEC. 200 AND  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 601 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN  OF 372  CONTRACTS TO THE 601 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD GAIN OF 973 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  5.310 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR 7 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.73 POINTS OR 0.23%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 172.55 POINTS OR 0.69%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 57.88 POINTS OR 0.26%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .81%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0032 /Oil UP TO 40.50 dollars per barrel for WTI and 43.16 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0032 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0035 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL  SIZED 701 CONTRACTS TO 599.330 MOVING CLOSER TO OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS SMALL COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR  GAIN OF $12.45 IN GOLD PRICING /WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE (3,788 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  A TINY INCREASE IN STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//JULY DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) WITH CONTINUATION OF STRONG SPREADER LIQUIDATION , …  AS WE ENGINEERED A SMALL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4489 CONTRACTS WITH GOLD’S  GAIN IN PRICE. NORMALLY WE HAVE LATELY  SEEN THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED  TO BE SMALL.. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON.  TODAY AFTER A TWO DAY HIATUS A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WAS ISSUED. .

 

 

 

(SEE BELOW)

 

 

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 58

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 3788 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  AUG  2576 , OCT: 20  DEC 1192; FEB 00 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3788 CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 4489 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 3788 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 701 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A GOOD AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD COMEX OI GAIN,  A TINY INCREASE IN  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR THE JULY DELIVERY (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)…  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, AND A STRONG  SPREADER LIQUIDATION……AND WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE WE HAD A GAIN IN COMEX PRICE OF 12.45 DOLLARS..

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $12.45).  AND, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS 

AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A STRONG 13.97 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 4489, CONTRACTS OR 448900 OZ OR 13.97 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  599,330 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 59.93 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1864 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1864/2200 OR 84.72% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 311,793 contracts// fair volume//

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  446,850 contracts//  volume  good //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

JULY 30 /2020

JULY GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

FINAL

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 96,453.000 oz

Brinks

2,000 kilobars

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

172,844.25

OZ

HSBC

JPM

includes

5,000

KILOBARS

JPM

No of oz served (contracts) today
1 notice(s)
 100 OZ
(0.0031 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
NIL
NIL TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
9607 notices
960,700 OZ
29.881 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 1 deposit into the dealer

i) Int the dealer Brinks:  96,453.000 oz

2000 KILOBARS

 

 

 

total deposit: 96,453.000 oz

 

DEALER WITHDRAWAL: 0

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 2 deposit into the customer account

 

 

i) Into HSBC:  12,089.25  oz

ii) Into JPMorgan: 160,755.000 oz  5,000 kilobars

 

 

 

total deposit:  172,844.25 oz

 

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) out of Malca: 32,151.000 oz (1000 kilobars)

 

total withdrawals;  32,151.000 oz

 

 

We had 3  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 3 //

 

customer to dealer//Brinks:  (eligible to registered)

10,889.011 oz adjusted out of th e customer and this lands into the dealer account

and

from Loomis:  67,515.000 oz  (2100 kilobars) adjusted up to the dealer account

dealer to customer acct

JPMorgan:

20,061.907 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this lands into the customer account of JPM

 

 

 

 

 

The front month of JULY registered a total of 1 oi contracts FOR a LOSS of 824 contracts. We had 825 notices served on WEDNESDAY so we GAINED ANOTHER HUGE 1 contract or an additional 100 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into London based forwards.

 

 

Next comes August and another strong delivery month and here the OI  FELL BY 33,968  contracts DOWN to 60,568 contracts, as we continue our countdown to first day notice. We have 1 more reading days before first day notice.

 

August is contracting very slowly…and thus  we are going to have a whopper of a delivery month come July 31/2020..first day notice for the August contract month.

Probable amount standing:  50,000 contracts or 5 million oz  (155 tonnes of gold)

 

Sept saw another addition of 388 contracts to stand at 3192.  Oct GAINED 1886 contracts UP to 67,100. (The boys still prefer August)

 

We had 1 notices filed today for  100 oz

 

FOR THE JULY 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1 contract(s) of which 1 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the FINAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9607) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JULY (1 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz per contract) equals 960,700 OZ OR 29.881 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the FINAL standings for gold for the JULY/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (9607 x 100 oz + (1 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1) x 100 oz which equals 960,700 oz standing OR 29.881 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE record amount for gold standing for a JULY delivery month (a  non active delivery month).

We gained 1 contracts or an additional  100 oz will stand at the comex.

We are now witnessing an increase in queue jumping on a daily basis. Sooner or later they will be running out of metal to supply our longs.

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

271,997.477 oz PLEDGED  JULY 9// 2020  JPMORGAN:  8.46 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

251,935,520 oz           JPM

653,730.982 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/   july 2/july 21               20.333 tonnes

total pledged gold:  1,092,303.812 oz                                     34.59 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 397.62 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 29.881 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  13,875,917,539 oz or 431,59 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (SOME  DELETED JUNE 24 2020/SOME JULY 9; SOME JULY 22/July 03) which cannot be settled upon:  251,935.520, oz (or 7.836 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    DELETED:   JULY 7.2020
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  DELETED july 2 and july 21
g) pledged gold at Brinks: 653,730.982 oz added which cannot be settled:  20.333 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,092,303.812 oz or 33.97 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon:  12,783,614.0  (397.62 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  12,783,614.0 (397.62 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  21,872,051,972 oz (680.31 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   35,747,969.511 oz 1111.91 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  985,57 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of April 2018. and it continues to present day.  Thus 24 data entry points.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.  Gold owners are very clear people.  They would know full well that

the gold at the comex is unallocated and that they would not be stupid enough to keep their gold at the comex especially in the registered category once deliveries are asked upon. If physical gold was present it would be have removed from the comex… It shows there is no gold at the comex.  They are just trading in sticky paper.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

JULY 30/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

 

 

JULY SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//final

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 618,285.350 oz
CNT
Delaware

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
1,837,513.000 oz
Brinks

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
789,788.370 oz
Delaware
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
596
CONTRACT(S)
(2,980,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 nil oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  17,294 contracts

86,470,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 1 deposit into the dealer:
i) Into the dealer Brinks:  1,837,513.000 oz ?????

total dealer deposits: 1,837,513.0000  oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   nil oz

 

 

 

ii) Into Delaware:  1001.200 oz

iii) Into Scotia: 788,787,170 oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 163.098 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48,99% of all official comex silver. (163.677 million/334.544 million

 

total customer deposits today:  789,788.370    oz

we had 2 withdrawals:

 

 

i)Out of CNT:  613,257.550 oz

 

 

 

ii) Out of Delaware: 5027.803 oz

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 618,285.350   oz

We had 1 adjustments

out of Brinks:  dealer to customer account

4758.50 oz dealer to customer

 

 

total dealer silver: 133.067 million

total dealer + customer silver:  334,544 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The front month of July has an open interest of  596 contracts, as we LOST 230 contracts.  We had 459 notices served on WEDNESDAY, so we GAINED 229 contracts or an additional 1,145,000 oz will stand in this active delivery month of July as they REFUSED TO  morph into a London based forwards.  Somebody was in urgent need of silver on this side of the pond.

 

 

 

 

The next month after July is the non active month of  August and here  sees its open interest FELL by 99 contracts to 820

The big September contract month sees a LOSS of 1109 contracts down to 129,983.

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JULY 2020. contract month is represented by 596 contract(s) FOR 2,980,000, oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 17,294 x 5,000 oz = 86,470,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY.(596) and the number of notices served upon today 596 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the FINAL standings for silver for the JULY/2019 contract month: 17,294 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (596)- number of notices served upon today (596) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month.equals 86,470,000 oz.  (A WHOPPER )//ALL TIME RECORD FOR ONE DELIVERY MONTH 

 

WE GAINED 229 CONTRACTS OR 1,145,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY. SILVER IS STILL VERY SCARCE ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND AND THE REASON FOR CONSIDERABLE MORPHING OVER TO LONDON DURING THIS DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 163,035 CONTRACTS // volume huge+++/

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 184,020.,CONFIRMED VOLUME//volume huge++++++++/

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 184,020 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 0.920 million  OZ 131% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO- 2.13% ((JULY 30/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -1.00% to NAV:   (JULY 39/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 2.13%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 19.59 TRADING 19.42///NEGATIVE 0.87

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JULY 30/WITH GOLD DOWN  $10.00 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1241.96 TONNES.

JULY 29//WITH GOLD UP  $12.45 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 8.47 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1243.12 TONNES

JULY 28///WITH GOLD UP $13.25 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.84 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1234.65

JULY 27//WITH GOLD UP $35.30 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF XXX TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1228.81 TONNES

JULY 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.80 TODAY: WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.80 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1228.81 TONNES

JULY 23/WITH GOLD UP $24.90 TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 7.26 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1225.01 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 7.89 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1219.75 TONNES

JULY 21//WITH GOLD UP $26.00 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.97 TONNES INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 1211.86 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.70 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $7.70 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 15//WITH GOLD UP $1.55 TODAY/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A DEPOSIT OF 3.51 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1203.97 TONNES

JULY 13//WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1200.46 TONNES

JULY 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A STRANGE WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1200.82 TONNES

JULY 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OX 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1202.57 TONNES

JULY 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.75 TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 7.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1199.36 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 30//WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 29/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.61 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $5.03 TODAY: VERY STRANGE: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.46 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1175.39 TONNES

JUNE 25//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.6 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1176.85 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.50 TODAY;  A STRONG 3.21 TONNES ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.25  TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $25.50 TODAY/ANOTHER CRIMINAL PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1166.04 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 23.09 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.31 TONNES

JUNE 19/WITH GOLD UP$16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//; INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 18//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 16//WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $8.80 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 12//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 11//WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 6.55 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1135.05 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

JULY 30/ GLD INVENTORY 1241.96 tonnes*

LAST;  870 TRADING DAYS:   +302.46 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 770 TRADING DAYS://+480.93  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JULY 30//WITH SILVER DOWN 97 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 0.931 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.352 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//A DEPOSIT OF 5.984 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.283 MILLION OZ//

JULY 28  WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 7.52 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.299 MILLION OZ//

JULY 27/WITH SILVER UP $2.67 TODAY, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF XX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.779 MILLION OZ//

JULY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.779 MILLION OZ/

JULY 23/WITH SILVER UP $.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUMONGOUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 9.594 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.779 MILLION OZ///

JULY 22/WITH SILVER UP $1.54 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A HUMONGOUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.218 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.185 MILLION OZ/

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP $1.38 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUMONGOUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.368 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.967 MILLION OZ//

JULY 20/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:  A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.819 MILLION OZ ‘ENTERED” THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 526.599 MILLION OZ/

JULY 17/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 1.583 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 522.780 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16//WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF  5.123 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.197 MILLION OZ..

JULY 15.WITH SILVER  UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.956 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.074 MILLION OZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 514.118 MILLION OZ//

JULY 13//WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.677 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.118 MILLION OZ//

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 4.844 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT  515.795 MILLION OZ

WHAT A FRAUD!!

JULY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 8.198 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.951 MILLION OZ/

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.118 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//VERY SURPRISING.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.753 MILLION OZ//

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ///

JULY 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.008 MILLION OZ

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.403 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.007 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 466,000 OZ TO PAY FOR STORAGE FEES AND INSURANCE//// AND A LARGE DEPOSIT OF 1.212 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 931,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 24///WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS// NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.473 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 486/454 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 19//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE!!  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 839,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486,454 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 932,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.293 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.261 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.361 MILLION OZ

JUNE 16//WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.118 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.100 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.982  MILLION OZ///

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.269 MILLION OZ AND 1.802 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 481.982 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 11//WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.89 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 30.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

571.352 MILLION OZ.

end

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

COVID Pandemic Will Support Gold In Long Term as Highlights Strong Fundamental Reasons To Invest In Gold

Gold Hits Record High: Sprint Or Marathon? (Investment Update from the World Gold Council – 30 July, 2020)

Gold has reached new highs in nominal terms but it’s still below its inflation-adjusted record* (Chart 1)

COVID-19 pandemic may bring structural shifts to asset allocation and there are strong fundamental reasons supporting gold investment longer term.

Gold has been on a generally positive trend for the past few years and the onset of the global COVID-19 pandemic has made gold’s relevance as a hedge even more apparent and accelerated its price performance.

Gold increased by 17% during the first half of 2020, moving up by an additional 10% in July.

The most recent price move has come fast which, combined with markedly weak consumer demand, may result in higher gold price volatility in the near term. However, we believe the COVID-19 pandemic may bring structural shifts to asset allocation and that there are strong fundamental reasons supporting gold investment longer term.

Gold broke a new high on 28th July, reaching US$1,940.9/oz on the LBMA Gold Price PM (PM Price) and topping US$1,981.3/oz intra-day.

On the heels of this milestone, investors are asking two key questions, which we explore in this report: ‘How does this compare to previous highs?’ and ‘Is the price rally sustainable?’

Full Report from World Gold Council here

Gold and silver look overbought in the short term and corrections seem likely. For those who do not own precious metals, weakness should be used to dollar cost into physical.

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold slips as Fed’s continuing ultra low rates whets risk appetite

China Banks, Regulators Move to Cool Gold Rush

Anxious investors are pushing gold prices to all-time highs

The Other Reason Silver Is Soaring: Disruptions in Latin America

Where did the gold and silver for Britain’s coins come from?

India’s banks are racing to lend against a $1.5 trillion hoard of gold

India Considers Amnesty for Citizens Hoarding Gold Illegally

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

29-Jul-20 1954.35 1950.90, 1506.80 1502.39 & 1663.54 1659.24
28-Jul-20 1931.65 1940.90, 1499.15 1501.48 & 1647.70 1654.23
27-Jul-20 1940.55 1936.65, 1511.30 1504.78 & 1659.56 1647.70
24-Jul-20 1893.85 1902.10, 1486.67 1490.30 & 1631.55 1638.09
23-Jul-20 1882.35 1878.30, 1480.28 1477.47 & 1624.47 1621.54
22-Jul-20 1851.00 1852.40, 1462.85 1456.91 & 1604.82 1598.44
21-Jul-20 1823.20 1842.55, 1436.86 1449.35 & 1594.21 1608.36
20-Jul-20 1810.30 1815.65, 1437.92 1438.18 & 1580.21 1590.87
17-Jul-20 1802.90 1807.35, 1435.47 1442.45 & 1578.98 1581.07
16-Jul-20 1804.60 1807.70, 1438.09 1436.04 & 1583.72 1581.56
15-Jul-20 1809.30 1804.60, 1436.22 1441.31 & 1582.96 1579.57
14-Jul-20 1798.20 1801.90, 1436.58 1440.62 & 1583.14 1581.71
13-Jul-20 1808.05 1807.50, 1435.23 1432.26 & 1598.32 1591.68

Access Latest Goldnomics Podcast (Part II) Here

Own gold coins and bars in the safest vaults in Zurich, Switzerland with GoldCore. Learn why Switzerland remains a safe haven jurisdiction for owning precious metals. Access Our Most Popular Guide, the Essential Guide to Storing Gold in Switzerland here

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Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

 

Pam and Russ Martens: U.S. GDP seen collapsing by record rate in Q2

As outlined before from the Atlanta Fed 2nd quarter GDP is set to drop 32.1%

(Pam and Russ Martens/Wall Street on Parade)

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Wednesday, July 29, 2020

The very reliable GDPNow forecasting model provided by researchers at the Atlanta Fed was updated this morning and predicts that gross domestic product in the United States contracted by a jaw-dropping 32.1 percent on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized rate in the second quarter.

The public will get the official number from the Bureau of Economic Analysis at the U.S. Department of Commerce at 8:30 a.m. tomorrow morning.

… 

It’s expected that the second-quarter GDP number will be the largest decline since quarterly GDP records began being compiled by the BEA in 1947. It is also expected that the number will be exponentially worse than any quarter during the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/07/u-s-gdp-number-tomorrow-expected-…

END

China gets it:  they are now terrified by the risks posed by paper gold (silver)

(Reuters/GATA)

Even China now is terrified by risks of paper gold

 Section: 

China Banks, Regulators Move to Cool Gold Rush

By Andrew Galbraith, Winni Zhou, Samuel Shen, and Arpan Varghese
Reuters
Wednesday, July 29, 2020

SHANGHAI — Chinese regulators and major banks are rushing to curb precious metal trading by domestic investors to temper speculation that some fear could cause a repeat of this year’s oil trading mishaps.

The scramble to limit risks comes as gold prices hit record highs this week, spurred by investors hunting for safe-haven assets in markets rattled by worries of rising coronavirus cases, lofty equity valuations and a falling U.S. dollar.

A deepening rift between the United States and China has also become a factor drawing mainland investors to gold.

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the country’s biggest lender, said today that from Friday it would bar its clients from opening new trading positions for platinum, palladium, and index products linked to precious metal. That directive, according to the lender’s customer service department, was in response to “violent price volatility” and “the need to control risks.”

Agricultural Bank of China said it had recently suspended new businesses related to gold, while Bank of China said it halted new account openings for platinum and palladium trading.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange said on Tuesday gold and silver holdings were high, and it would take risk-control measures if warranted to protect investors.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange, where gold and silver futures contracts are traded, also urged its members to strengthen risk-management efforts and invest rationally.

“Gold remains a niche investment in China due to limited investment channels,” said Frank Hao, an analyst at Hywin Wealth Management in Shanghai. “Investors mainly rely on purchasing paper gold products at commercial banks as a way to counteract risks.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-gold-rush/china-banks-regulator…

END

Goldseek is now making plans for major improvements in its site.

(Goldseek/GATA)

GoldSeek plans major improvements to start soon

 Section: 

10:10p ET Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Monetary metals internet site GoldSeek today announced plans to make wide-ranging additions and improvements in the near future.

GoldSeek’s new features will include:

— Live gold prices, including streaming live prices and charts.

— A format designed for mobile device

Increased coverage of the gold-mining industry.

— Virtual conferences about gold and silver.

— Higher downloading speed.

— A weekly gold stock review.

The full announcement can be read at GoldSeek here:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1596085199.php

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

India’s banks are now racing to lend against citizens huge hoard of $1.5 trillion in gold.

(Bloomberg/GATA)

India’s banks are racing to lend against a $1.5 trillion hoard of gold

 Section: 

By Swansy Afonso and Ankika Biswas
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, July 30, 2020

Indian families, sitting on the world’s biggest private stash of gold, are rushing to borrow against their jewelry as the precious metal rallies to records and the coronavirus pandemic fuels an economic downturn. Now financial firms and banks are using that demand to lure more customers from pawnbrokers and money lenders.

The added competition could lower borrowing costs for Indian consumers, who in desperate moments of financial stress often pay exorbitant rates to informal lenders to use gold as collateral. Firms like HDFC Bank Ltd. and Federal Bank Ltd. are expanding the loans they make against the precious metal. India’s gold lenders, such as Muthoot Finance Ltd. and Manappuram Finance Ltd., are making it easier for their clients to borrow.

… 

Manappuram is offering gold-backed loans at the customer’s doorsteps via a 24-hour bank network since people are reluctant to leave their homes while coronavirus cases are surging in India. And it has staff and vehicles on standby to service client requests. HDFC Bank is boosting the number of branches offering such loans in rural India, where money lenders remain the norm. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-29/banks-are-racing-to-l…

END

For your interest….where did the gold and silver come from for Britain to coin?

Answer international trade.

(Sprott/GATA)

Where did the gold and silver for Britain’s coins come from?

 Section: 

12:35a ET Thursday, July 30, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Anyone hanging around the gold sector for the last 20 years knows where much of Britain’s gold went.

Chancellor Gordon Brown sold half of it between 1999 and 2002, supposedly to diversify the country’s foreign exchange reserves but more likely to rescue London bullion banks from their short positions as the gold market turned upward and broke the gold carry trade of the preceding decade.

With the gold price having increased about eight times, from L180 to L1,500 per ounce, since the “Brown’s Bottom” sale began, the operation turns out to have cost the British government something like a trillion bazillion pounds. But what the heck — the banks were saved.

Since Britain does not have extensive gold deposits, where did the gold for its coins come from? Geologist and mining equity analyst Graham Birch, a member of the Board of Directors of Canadian financial house Sprott Inc., has written a book on the subject, “The Metal in Britain’s Coins — Where Did It Come from and How Did It Get Here?,” a fascinating excerpt from which was posted this week on Sprott’s internet site.

Birch reports that much of Britain’s first gold and silver came from international trade (including the African slave trade) and piracy, the gold being stamped into the sovereign coins that built an empire, only to be extracted from the population by the government to finance wars and similar necessities, leaving the population with paper cash that has devalued by nearly 100 percent in a century.

Birch concludes: “We can have no confidence that the pattern is going to change. Gold seems certain to outperform sterling and any other paper currency. And now there is no offsetting interest to make holding currency any more palatable.”

Since gold remains both the supreme money and the mechanism of escape from a corrupt and unfair financial system, monetary gold and silver in private hands are much resented by many governments and always vulnerable to more of their expropriation. So monetary metals investors may do well to learn some of the history Birch relates. The excerpt from his book is here:

https://sprott.com/insights/the-metal-in-britains-coins-where-did-it-com…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

China is trying to curb paper gold trading

(zerohedge)

Chinese Banks Bar Clients From Buying Precious Metals

In an attempt to avoid another retail-driven momentum meltup similar to what happened with Chinese stocks earlier this month when government-media first encouraged Chinese investors to buy stocks only to backtrack days later when local markets soared sparking fears of another stock bubble on the mainland, Reuters reported that Chinese regulators and major banks have been rushing to curb precious metal trading by domestic investors to temper speculation that could send prices explosively higher, something we hinted at just last week.

The scramble to limit risks comes as gold prices hit record highs this week, spurred by investors hunting for safe haven assets in markets rattled by worries of rising coronavirus cases, lofty equity valuations, and a plunge in the U.S. dollar which prompted Goldman to contemplate if the days of the world’s reserve currency are numbered.

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the country’s largest bank said on Wednesday it would bar its clients from opening new trading positions for platinum, palladium and index products linked to precious metal from Friday. That directive, according to the lender’s customer service department, was in response to “violent price volatility” and “the need to control risks.” The reality? It is neither in China’s, nor any other government’s interest, to see gold prices soaring as they likely would if tens of millions of Chinese speculators rushed to bid up the precious metal.

Similarly, Agricultural Bank of China said it had recently suspended new businesses related to gold, while Bank of China also said it halted new account openings for platinum and palladium trading.

Meanwhile, the Shanghai Gold Exchange said on Tuesday that gold and silver holdings were high, and it would take risk-control measures if warranted to protect investors.

It’s odd how investors are never “protected” when stock prices soar… but only when gold and silver do.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange, where gold and silver futures contracts are traded, also urged its members to strengthen risk-management efforts and invest rationally.

Gold remains a niche investment in China due to limited investment channels,” said Frank Hao, an analyst at Hywin Wealth Management in Shanghai. “Investors mainly rely on purchasing paper gold products at commercial banks as a way to counteract risks.”

Chinese investors have also been actively buying up gold ETFs, whose turnover has jumped in recent weeks. Huaan Gold ETF, Asia’s biggest gold exchange-traded fund, has seen its assets under management soar more than 68% to over 11.8 billion yuan ($1.69 billion) since end-2019.

Hao said any further gains in gold may spur more speculation, despite regulatory attempts to tamp it down.

“If the gold price rises past $2,000, some more hot money will certainly flow into the market, and some investors will divert their stock investments to gold,” he said.

Which really says all one needs to know: when it comes to stocks, nobody is worried about the “hot money” flowing into the market, in fact it is encouraged. But when gold explodes higher and it may “divert” stock investment to gold the authorities start to panic and do everything in their power to limit its ascent.

END

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0032/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0085   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 7.73 POINTS OR 0.23%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 172.55 POINTS OR 0.69%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 57.85 POINTS OR 0.26%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 93.57/Euro FALLS TO 1.1754

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 105.12/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 40.50 and Brent: 43.16

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.54%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.98% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.32%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.48: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.06

3k Gold at $1953.20 silver at: 23.25   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 105/100 in roubles/dollar) 73.62

3m oil into the 40 dollar handle for WTI and 43 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 105.15 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9139 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0743 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.54%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.55% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.21%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.9732..

“Markets Are Nearing Their Limits”: Futures Falls, European Markets Tumble After German GDP Crashes

S&P futures tumbled, European stocks slumped to a three week low, 10Y Treasury yields dropped near all time lows (where the 5Y already was at 0.2374%, the lowest yield on record), and the EUR slid from near a 22-month high after the market reassessed that Powell’s message could have been even more dovish, and as German GDP crashed the most on record, alongside a surge in Covid-19 cases. Meanwhile, today’s US GDP report is expected to show shortly that the US economy contracted by a record 34.5%. The dollar strengthened against most Group-of-10 peers, with Scandinavian currencies leading losses.

German GDP contracted by 10.1% Q/Q in the second quarter of 2020, the biggest drop on record and worse than the 9% expected drop.The good news: this print is consistent with a relatively fast rebound of both the industrial and services sectors through May and June. That said, the below-consensus performance of Germany points to downside risks to consensus expectations for the Euro area Q2 release published tomorrow. It also means that the narrative of a faster European recovery than the US has just come to a screeching halt.

In US pre-market trading, UPS jumped on a surge in delivery demand during the pandemic. Qualcomm jumped 11.5% after forecasting fourth-quarter revenue largely above expectations, powered by sales of its chips used in 5G devices and reaching a settlement with Huawei Technologies Co Ltd. Eastman Kodak extended yesterday’s 319% surge from winning a government loan to assist in the production of a coronavirus treatment.

European stocks tumbled as much as 1.7%, dropping to the lowest since July 1, as the prospects for stimulus is weighed against the quickening spread of the coronavirus. Among the biggest decliners, SAP fell 2.6%, HSBC loses 3.4%, Allianz retreats 3.6%. Danone was down 5.6% after sales fell more than expected last quarter, dragged down by its water business. Lloyds Banking Group Plc slumped as much as 9% after profit was wiped out by bad loans charges.  Volkswagen tumbled 5.6% after posting 2Q figures that included what MainFirst called a “clear miss” at the heavy- trucks division and worse-than-expected performance at some car brands.

“A vacuum on EU positive news could now be in store as the recovery fund ratification process begins” and European equities start to struggle, Dankse Bank strategists write in a note. Meanwhile, Germany’s covid infection rate remains above the threshold of 1.0, and recorded the highest number of new cases in around six weeks.

Asian stocks also fell, wiping out earlier gains, with shares in Japan and China under pressure even as the Kospi stayed modestly firmer following upbeat Samsung outlook. The drop was led by finance and utilities; markets in the region were mixed, with Singapore’s Straits Times Index and Thailand’s SET falling, and Taiwan’s Taiex Index and Jakarta Composite rising. The Topix declined 0.6%, with Gurunavi and Kushikatsu Tanaka falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index reversed Wednesday’s rally and retreated 0.2%, with Hangzhou Electronic Soul Network and Shanghai Material Trading posting the biggest slides.

“Markets are nearing their limits without further stimulus and a much stronger recovery,” said Andrew McCaffery, the global CIO of asset management at Fidelity International, citing the failure to get the outbreak under control in some countries. “The third quarter is likely to be much more challenging and markets could see renewed volatility.”

While markets are bracing for a slew of earnings from the tech giants, they will also get economic data that’s will show the biggest contraction in U.S. GDP on record. Thursday marks the first time the four of the biggest U.S. tech companies — Apple, Amazon.com, Alphabet and Facebook — will post financial results on the same day, with expectations running high as their valuations soared over the past three months. Shares of the companies, which have a combined market value of about $5 trillion, fell between 0.6% and 0.9% premarket. On Wednesday, the CEOs of the four companies took jabs from lawmakers for antitrust issues.

Tonight could be a pivot for markets with four of the big tech companies reporting earnings,” said Berndt Maisch, a senior portfolio manager at Tresides Asset Management. “Their stocks are so super expensive and hence offer very little room for any disappointment. Should they miss the high expectations that could lead to a significant market shake up. We can already see that nervousness within European markets today.”

While signs of a pickup in activity have fueled a stellar rally in U.S. stocks, the momentum of economic has slowed recently amid a resurgence in new infections, especially in southern and western U.S. states, leading to a pause in reopening plans. The S&P 500 is about 4% below its Feb. 19 record high after coming within 3% of that level last week. The backward looking GDP print is due at 8:30 a.m. ET when we will also get the Labor Department’s latest jobless claims data which is expected to show another ominous an uptick in newly fired workers.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve acknowledged the surge in COVID-19 cases is likely stalling economic recovery. The central bank also pledged to support the economy as long as necessary, lifting Wall Street’s three main indexes at the end of the session. Also dampening the mood was a deadlock in negotiations in the U.S. Congress over a pandemic relief plan, before a $600-per-week unemployment benefit lapses on Friday.

In FX, the dollar reversed Wednesday’s losses and climbed from the lowest since September 2018 as rising coronavirus cases worldwide supported demand for haven assets; the euro retreated against the dollar from the high it touched on Wednesday after news that Germany’s economy fell the most since records began in the second quarter.  Investors sought refuge in the greenback after nations from Australia to Vietnam reported a fresh spike in infections and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of the most severe economic downturn “in our lifetime.”

Among the G-10, the Norwegian krone saw the biggest losses, making it this year’s worst performer; it was followed by the krona and kiwi, which also extended declines versus the Aussie as data showed a further drop in New Zealand’s consumer confidence. Sterling snapped a nine-day rally against the dollar, yet outperformed the euro.

The Australian dollar slipped as leveraged funds initiated short positions after Victoria state registered a record number of cases, according to a trader. The yen halted a five-day gain as traders weighed Japan’s tally of infections which rose to an all-time high.

The virus story is shifting away from being just a U.S. story with now many hot spots around the globe,”said Rodrigo Catril, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. “The dollar’s decline is starting to look stretched, particularly if more containment measures are reintroduced in other parts of the world”

In rates, two-year Treasury yields are two basis points away from falling below the record set in May and the 5-year yield fell to a record low 0.2374%. The US Treasury curve bull-flattened, extending a move that followed Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and anticipating month-end index-extension flows Friday that may further support long end. U.S yields were lower by 1bp to 3bp across the curve with long-end- led gains flattening 2s10s by ~1bp, 5s30s by ~2bp; 10-year yields around 0.555%, richer by 2bp vs Wednesday’s close and within 2bp of its record low close on March 9.  German bonds rallied on demand for the safety of sovereign debt, driving benchmark yields to a two-month low and widening the differential with Italian equivalents.

In commodities, gold fell for the first time in 10 days as the dollar rebounded.

Looking at the day ahead, the focus for data will be the advanced Q2 GDP reading for the US which is expected to show an annualized contraction of -34.5% qoq. Other data includes weekly jobless claims while in Europe we’ve got preliminary July CPI and Q2 GDP in Germany. As highlighted earlier, expect earnings to be a big focus with Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook and Apple reporting along with Nestle, P&G, Shell, MasterCard, Total, ABInBev and Volkswagen.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.9% to 3,222.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 364.50
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.7 bps to -0.525%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.1754
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.6 bps to 0.866%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.6 bps to 0.332%
  • Brent futures down 1.4% to $43.12/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.8% to $1,955.55
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 93.61
  • MXAP down 0.2% to 166.87
  • MXAPJ down 0.01% to 553.40
  • Nikkei down 0.3% to 22,339.23
  • Topix down 0.6% to 1,539.47
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 24,710.59
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,286.82
  • Sensex down 0.4% to 37,915.38
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 6,051.08
  • Kospi up 0.2% to 2,267.01

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Germany’s economy plunged into a record slump in the second quarter, when virus restrictions slammed businesses and households across Europe, destroying jobs and prompting an unprecedented policy response
  • Germany also reported the highest number of new coronavirus cases in about six weeks. In the U.K., almost 10,000 people have been given an experimental Covid-19 vaccine, a key step toward finding a shot that will help control the pandemic
  • Hong Kong’s government barred 12 pro-democracy activists including Joshua Wong from running in September elections
  • The early signs are that bond investors agree with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that the coronavirus still warrants extreme caution from policy makers

Asian equity markets were mostly kept afloat as the region took advantage of the post-FOMC tailwinds from Wall Street and as focus was centred on a deluge of earnings releases. ASX 200 (+0.7%) was led by outperformance in the tech sector and with mining names underpinned by Rio Tinto earnings. Nikkei 225 (-0.2%) also began positively although gains were later reversed amid recent currency strength and after Retail Sales Y/Y topped estimates but remained in contractionary territory. Furthermore, notable movers have been driven by corporate updates with Nomura Holdings the biggest gainer, while Isetan Mitsukoshi, TEPCO and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group are at the other side of the spectrum on dismal results. KOSPI (+0.3%) began the session on the front foot to print its best level since October 2018 after encouraging earnings from Samsung Electronics although some of the gains were later pared after shares of the tech and index behemoth stalled around the KRW 60,000 level. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) were varied with indecision seen in the mainland following the prior day’s outperformance and after the PBoC opted for a neutral position in its latest liquidity operations. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued amid the flimsy sentiment in Tokyo and mostly weaker results at the 2yr JGB auction.

Top Asian News

  • Herd Immunity May Be Developing in Mumbai’s Poorest Areas
  • Thailand Sees 8.5% GDP Contraction as Virus Ravages Economy
  • Hong Kong’s Dollar Peg Is ‘Unassailable’, StanChart CEO Says

European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -1.7%) trade lower across the board with selling pressure continuing to pick up throughout the session amid a backdrop of light macro newsflow and a particularly busy earnings slate. Despite selling pressure in equity index futures becoming more prominent throughout the session, equity-specific focus has largely been centred around individual pre-market earnings reports from a vast number of large-cap names from across the region. Sector-wise, auto names are a notable laggard amid earnings from Volkswagen (-5.7%) and Renault (-5.7%) with the former reporting a H1 loss of EUR 1.4bln (prev. profit of EUR 9.6bln) and the latter posting a EUR 7.4bln loss; Renault CEO noting that results have acted as a “disturbing wake up call”. For the banking sector, Lloyds (-7.4%) trade lower after posting a GBP 602mln loss (prev. profit of GBP 2.9bln), Standard Chartered (-3.6%) and BBVA (-7.9%) are also down on the day post-earnings, whilst some reprieve for the sector has been presented by Credit Suisse (+0.2) after the Co. posted a 24% increase in net income whilst also announcing some structural changes in its operations. Large-cap energy names Shell (-1.7%) and Total (+1.3%) have both come to market with Q2 earnings today in which the former posting a USD 16.8bln writedown on its assets and the latter managing to avoid entering the red after recording a net income figure of USD 126mln during the quarter. Elsewhere, AstraZeneca (+2.8%) are a notable outperformer after reporting an increase in H1 profits and revenues with performance boosted by new medicines with the Co. continuing to focus on developing a vaccine for COVID-19. Swiss heavyweight Nestle (+0.4%) are firmer this morning after H1 organic sales rose 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.3% despite the fallout from the pandemic. Airbus (+3.0%) are another outperformer post-earnings despite posting a H1 loss of EUR 1.9bln with the Co. vowing to stem its sizable cash outflows. AB InBev (+5.4%) sit near the top of the Stoxx 600 after Q2 sales figures exceeded expectations during the pandemic. To the downside, Casino (-15.8%) reside at the bottom of the Stoxx 600 after posting a drop in sales and trading profits

Top European News

  • Euronext Rejects Shorter Hours After Some Investors Resist
  • Lazard Banker Among Suspects in German Insider Trading Probe
  • BBVA’s Miss in Mexico Overshadows Quick Return to Profit
  • Casino Shares Collapse to 24-Year Low as 1H Seen as ‘A Disaster’

In FX, the Greenback continues to regroup after a knee-jerk slide in wake of the dovish/downbeat FOMC, as broad risk sentiment sours on heightened 2nd wave COVID-19 prompted by the latest daily updates showing increases in infections and deaths to new record levels in several cases. As such, the Buck has bounced across the board with the DXY pivoting 93.500 within 93.308-685 bounds compared to a low of 93.169 at one stage on Wednesday and now eyeing 2 top-tier US data points for near term direction (weekly initial claims and Q2 GDP) before remaining month end rebalancing kicks in.

  • AUD/NZD/CAD/NOK – No big surprise that the high beta, cyclical and commodity currencies have been hit hardest by renewed aversion and the mini or partial US Dollar revival, as the Aussie also laments another rise in virus cases in Victoria and retreats further nigh on 0.7200 peaks towards 0.7125, while the Kiwi fails to glean any lasting traction from improvements in ANZ business sentiment or an even bigger rebound in the outlook, with 0.6600 more tangible than 0.6700 that seemed reachable at one stage. Similarly, the Loonie has reversed sharply from multi-week highs around 1.3330 to sub-1.3400 against the backdrop of waning crude prices and the Norwegian Krona is back below 10.7000 vs the Euro even though the latter has unwound gains elsewhere.
  • EUR/SEK/CHF/JPY/GBP – All backing off amidst the downturn in risk appetite and Greenback recovery, with the single currency testing bids under 1.1750 having rallied just above 1.1800 late yesterday, but not quite far enough to probe the bottom end of a resistance zone stretching from 1.1815 to 1.1851 that includes a key Fib retracement (1.1822). However, the Swedish Crown has slipped through 10.3000 against the Euro in contrast to the Franc that is straddling 1.0750 and only handing back a portion of its gains vs the Buck between 0.9151-21 parameters in keeping with the safe-haven Yen that is holding a tight range either side of 105.00. Last, but not least, the Pound is actually confounding normal conventions, to a degree, and retaining sight of 1.3000, albeit capped ahead of Wednesday’s 1.3014 pinnacle and a chart hurdle just a few pips above (1.3018).
  • EM – General depreciation on overall risk factors, but the Rand also losing ground with GOLD, Rouble alongside Brent, Lira on a lack of Turkish reserves to arrest the slide and Mexican Peso ahead of Q2 GDP that is expected to extend the recessionary run to 5 quarters and by record margins.

In commodities, WTI and Brent are in the red this morning following the general downturn in sentiment this morning which features European & US equity bourses firmly in negative territory on the busiest earnings session of the season for both European & US Co’s. For crude explicitly there hasn’t been anything fundamentally new for the complex since yesterday’s EIAs and as such it is once again tracking sentiment generally. Albeit, we did see updates from Total and Shell this morning who both highlighted strong oil trading results for the quarter which acted to mitigate some of the declines from energy prices. Additionally, on the mid-term supply front Shell CEO Beurden noted that they will only be drilling 22 exploratory wells this year which is some way below the originally guided 77. Moving to metals, spot gold is subdued this morning as the USD continues to grind higher; although, the precious metal is still in proximity to the USD 1950/oz mark a level which it was in proximity to around this time yesterday as well. Separately, for the metal ING believe it surpassing the USD 2000/oz mark is just a matter of time and forecast prices to be at USD 2100/oz by year-end. Elsewhere of note for cobalt and key miners of the metal such as Glencore where Panasonic are to launch cobalt free Tesla batteries in 2-3 years and have reduced the amount of cobalt used to below 5%.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. -34.5%, prior -5.0%
  • Personal Consumption, est. -34.5%, prior -6.8%
  • Core PCE QoQ, est. -0.9%, prior 1.7%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 1.45m, prior 1.42m; Continuing Claims, est. 16.2m, prior 16.2m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 44.7

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Our US economists, in their summary last night (see here), noted that Powell suggested the Committee aims to wrap up the policy review in the “near future” which is consistent with their expectation that the results will be released at the September meeting. The team continues to anticipate that the Fed will adopt an average inflation target when that occurs, and that ultimately they will commit to providing additional accommodation through outcome-based forward guidance and more aggressive balance sheet expansion. However, they also continue to believe that these tools could be insufficient, and that alternative tools, such as frontend yield curve control (YCC) or more active use of credit facilities, could prove necessary.

In terms of markets, the sun had been shining on risk assets going into the meeting and the lack of any new significant information did little to spoil the party with the S&P 500, NASDAQ and DOW eventually closing +1.24%, +1.35% and +0.61% respectively. Meanwhile, 10yr US Treasuries were mostly unchanged with yields dropping just -0.4bps to 0.576%. The USD continued its decline, falling -0.26%, for the 12th losing session of the last 14. Conversely Gold rose for the tenth session in a row, rising +0.63% to $1971/oz.

Away from the Fed the other event of note was the antitrust panel in front of Congress including the CEOs of the biggest tech companies in America. Though the industry leaders were met with varied criticism from both parties yesterday, Republicans took umbrage with Google and Facebook over alleged liberal bias, while the Democrats aimed their critique at the companies’ market power. Apple, Amazon, and Google saw questions from both sides over their use of consumer data, and whether they have an unfair advantage due to their place as gatekeepers to operating systems and environments.

Speaking of tech, it’s a big day for earnings in the sector with Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet all set to report today. We’ll have to wait until tonight for the numbers however with the releases due after the close, although there’s no shortage of other companies reporting which should dictate the direction of travel with 62 S&P 500 companies reporting in all, while this morning in Europe we’re expecting numbers from Credit Suisse, Shell, Nestle, Total and Volkswagen amongst others. So expect a busy day of headlines.

In terms of the latest overnight, the Hang Seng (+1.05%), Kospi (+0.31%) and ASX (+0.72%) are all trading up while the Nikkei (-0.05%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.09%) are more or less unchanged. Meanwhile, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.12% while Gold has retraced -0.33%. In terms of earnings, Samsung reported quarterly net income of KRW 5.5tn, beating estimates of KRW 4.9tn while also providing a cautiously optimistic outlook, predicting that new smartphones and gaming consoles will boost demand for memory chips in the second half of the year. Shares are up slightly on the news. Elsewhere, Qualcomm also gave a strong sales forecast for the current quarter yesterday and announced a new licensing deal with China’s Huawei which has seen shares trade up as much as +12% in extended trading.

Back to yesterday, where unlike the US, European equities traded without any clear direction. The Stoxx 600 (-0.06%) ended in the red having passed between gains and losses a total of 15 times during the session with autos and chemicals the worst performing industries. The latter was partly due to BASF, the world’s biggest chemical company falling -4.24% after reporting a loss and painting a slightly bleak picture for Q3. Meanwhile, peripheral bonds tightened slightly to bunds with spreads on Italian and Spanish bonds -2.6bps and -1.8bps tighter respectively.

In other news, Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline penned a deal with the UK for as many as 60 million doses of their coronavirus vaccine, after having already agreed last week to buy 90 million doses of potential vaccines from the partnership of Pfizer and BioNTech. The US and other wealthier nations have taken similar steps in ensuring they are diversified among the top vaccine contenders as they seek to put the pandemic behind them.

On a related note, London Heathrow airport is aiming to have Covid-19 testing for arrivals by September if it can get government approval, with officials pushing that this would allow for more confidence amongst travelers and some respite for the battered airline industries. This comes even as the EU pulled back on plans to reopen the greater region to international travelers, citing the resurgence in global cases. Half a world away, Australia’s Queensland state announced they would be closing its borders to all visitors from Sydney from Saturday. Overnight, Australia’s Victoria state reported 723 new cases, a daily record, and Vietnam’s capital Hanoi further rolled back the reopening by halting public gatherings of more than 30 people. China added a further 105 cases while, India, Japan and Hong Kong also remain on a concerning trajectory. The Nikkei has reported this morning that the Tokyo government will ask restaurants and karaoke establishments to shorten operating hours by closing no later than 10pm JST due to a surge of coronavirus cases adding that the restriction will be in place form August 3 to August 31.

Meanwhile in the US, cases grew by 76,339 in the past 24 hours, higher than the recent observed growth of c. 60,000 per day. Overnight, Texas (418,995) has pipped New York (413,593) to become the third most infectious state in the US in terms of total infections recorded. Further, Texas (280), California (204) and Florida (216) all posted high and in some cases record fatalities in the past 24 hours, even as cases appear to be rolling over in the three most populous US states. Elsewhere in the US, Maryland issued a travel advisory for residents against going to hard hit states in the South, while New Jersey has followed New York City’s lead and paused reopening by keeping indoor dining and gyms closed.

Sticking with the US, Congress appears to be further apart than expected on a new round of fiscal stimulus spending. Last night leading Democrats and Republicans met just before the market closed in New York, but White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said the sides are nowhere close to a deal and that the extra $600 unemployment benefit is expected to expire. The base case remains that the sides will reach a compromise somewhere between the Senate and House bills, but the timeline is getting pushed further out.

Wrapping up, we did get some positive, albeit largely expected, fiscal news out of Europe. The Spanish government has extended the deadline for corporates to apply for loan guarantee schemes from the end of September to 1 December. Similarly, Austria’s government has agreed to extend its furlough program for an additional 6 months in to protect jobs as the economic impact of the virus is still felt in many industries.

Finally, in terms of the day ahead, the focus for data will be the advanced Q2 GDP reading for the US which is expected to show an annualized contraction of -34.5% qoq. Other data includes weekly jobless claims while in Europe we’ve got preliminary July CPI and Q2 GDP in Germany. As highlighted earlier, expect earnings to be a big focus with Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook and Apple reporting along with Nestle, P&G, Shell, MasterCard, Total, ABInBev and Volkswagen.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.73 POINTS OR 0.23%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 172.55 POINTS OR 0.69%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 57.88 POINTS OR 0.26%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .81%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0032 /Oil UP TO 40.50 dollars per barrel for WTI and 43.16 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0032 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0035 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA VS USA

China is preparing itself for sanctions and they are now urging Chinese banks to switch from SWIFT and drop the use of USA dollars

(zerohedge)

Chinese Banks Urged To Switch From SWIFT And Drop USD In Anticipation Of US Sanctions

Even as the market does its best to ignore the unprecedented upheavals in US-Sino relations in everything from trade, to diplomacy, to financial relations, the truth is that there are tectonic shifts tearing apart decades of established norms between the two superpowers, and one doesn’t even have to dig too deep to see it.

Consider this: one month ago, we reported that Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, delivered a strong warning on the US currency, frontrunning Goldman by about a month in cautioning that the greenback’s reserve status may be ending.

Speaking at the Lujiazhui Forum in Shanghai, Guo made four points:

  • The Fed is the de facto central bank of the world. When its policy targets its own economy without considering the spillover effect, the Fed is “very likely to overdraft the credit of the dollar and the U.S.”
  • The pandemic may persist for a long period of time, and countries keep throwing money at the problem with a diminished impact. “It is recommended that you think twice and reserve some policy space for the future.”
  • There is no free lunch. Watch out for inflation.
  • Financial markets are disconnected from the real economy, and such distortions are “unprecedented.” It’s going to be “really painful,” when the policy withdrawal starts.

“Some people say: ‘Domestic debt is not debt, but external debt is debt. For the United States, even external debt is not debt. This seems to have been the case for quite some time in the past, but can it really last for a long time in the future?”

So what will China do? “China cherishes the conventional monetary and fiscal policies very much. We will not engage in flooding the system, nor will we engage in deficit monetization and negative interest rates.”

It’s not the first time China vented frustration against the “exorbitant privilege” of the dollar. After the financial crisis, then-PBOC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan proposed using the SDR to replace the dollar as the main reserve currency. For the most part these warnings were ignored, but one thing was clear: China is all too aware that the US is not only ready but also willing to weaponize the dollar and use it to its advantage in the recently launched cold with China.

So fast forward to today, when according to Reuters, a report from the investment banking unit of Bank of China warned that China should prepare for potential US sanctions by switching away from the Dollar-centric SWIFT system, and increasing use of its own financial messaging network for cross-border transactions in the mainland, Hong Kong and Macau.

According to the BOC report, which was co-authored by a former foreign exchange regulator, greater use of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) instead of the Belgium based SWIFT system would also reduce exposure of China’s global payments data to the United States. The bank’s chief economist Guan Tao was previously a director of the international payments department of State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).

The report looked at potential measures the United States could take against Chinese banks, including cutting off their access to the SWIFT financial messaging service, the primary network used by banks globally to make financial transactions.

“A good punch to the enemy will save yourself from hundreds of punches from your enemies,” the report wrote, amid deteriorating relating between the world’s two largest economies. “We need to get prepared in advance, mentally and practically.”

The report said that if the United States were to take the extreme action of cutting off some Chinese banks’ access to dollar settlements, China should also consider stopping using the U.S. dollar as the anchor currency for its foreign exchange controls.

Chinese state banks have been implementing contingency plans in anticipation of US legislation that will penalize banks for serving officials who implement the new national security for Hong Kong, Reuters reported earlier this month.

China launched the CIPS clearing and settlement services system in 2015 as its alternative to SWIFT and in hopes to internationalise use of the yuan. So far, uptake has been negligible: supervised by the central bank, CIPS said it processed a mere 135.7 billion yuan ($19.4 billion) a day in 2019, with participation from 96 countries and regions.

The BOC also recommended that China develop legislation similar to the European Union’s Blocking Statute, which allowed the EU to sustain trade and economic relations with Iran, a country targeted by U.S. sanctions, although as has emerged in the past two years, Europe’s attempt to launch its own SWIFT-equivalent via Instex has been a failure, as virtually nobody is willing to risk alienation from the US Dollar by endorsing a European alternative. In fact, only when push comes to shove, and correspondent nations have no choice but to launch their own non-dollar transfer systems, will SWIFT’s supremacy finally be but to the test… as will the reserve status of the dollar.

Finally, confirming that this time China will have no choice but to proceed with “Plan B”, the SCMP reported overnight that the top adviser to Hong Kong’s leader, Carrie Lam, confirmed that his account at a US bank was closed earlier this year, as a result of Washington’s push to sanction Chinese and local officials over the city’s national security law.

Bernard Chan, convenor of the Executive Council, Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor’s de facto cabinet, told the Post on Tuesday he believed it was because he was deemed to be a “politically exposed person”.

“I’m sure they closed it because they found out I’m a PEP, politically exposed person,” Chan said. “I have other bank accounts in the United States which still function normally.”

Chan previously told the Financial Times that senior members of the city’s government were finding it increasingly difficult to bank with foreign institutions, as tensions mount between China and the US over the city’s future.

In retaliation for Beijing’s decision to impose a national security legislation on Hong Kong, President Trump signed a law and issued an executive order on July 15 to sanction individuals and banks deemed to have aided the erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy. He also put forth an executive order ending the city’s preferential trading and other privileges.

Foreign individuals or entities determined by the US secretary of state to fall into this category will be blocked from investing, transferring, exporting, withdrawing or dealing with any property or interests in property in the US.

In other words, while markets may be oblivious to these latest developments, the financial war between Washington and DC has officially begun and from this point on it will only accelerate as both countries progress in tit-for-tat retaliation to each and every move they find provocative.

END
CHINA/GLOBE/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

China, Germany Suffer Alarming Jump In New COVID-19 Cases As “Second Wave” Spreads: Live Updates

Summary:

  • China reports another 105 new cases
  • Hong Kong suffers new COVID record
  • Japan reports another 1,200+ cases
  • Melbourne suffers new record
  • Germany sees cases at 6 week high
  • Dutch gov’t declines to advise face mask wearing
  • Local lockdowns reported in parts of UK
  • Poland suffers new daily record

* * *

We kicked off yesterday’s COVID-19 live blog with the latest alarming numbers out of Asia: Mainland China reported its biggest daily cluster since mid-April, and Hong Kong, which adopted its more restrictive social distancing measures yet last week, reported 100+ new cases for a fifth straight day.

The last 24 hours have seen both outbreaks intensify, in keeping with the general pattern exhibited by SARS-CoV-2 (that is, it spreads, and quickly). On the mainland, public health officials reported 105 new cases Thursday morning. 102 of these cases were domestically transmitted, while only 3 were imported. Of the domestic cases, 96 were recorded in Xinjiang, the far-flung western province occupied by China’s Muslim Uiyghers, a minority ethnic group that has been subjected to unimaginable brutality by the government in Beijing, which has herded more than a million of them into concentration-camp-like settings. All cases were allegedly recorded over the last 24 hours, according to official data reported by Xinhua.

Hong Kong, meanwhile, reported 145 locally-transmitted coronavirus cases, marking a new daily record. 61 of the 145 cases were of unknown origin. The city also reported four imported case. While Hong Kong tightened restrictions on late-night dining and bar-hopping, it is also allowing restaurants to serve dine-in breakfast starting Friday.

Japan also reported more than 1,200 new cases on Thursday one day after shattering its daily COVID-19 record.

Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike wants bars and karaoke parlors to limit their hours to close at 2200 local time.

But perhaps the most alarming numbers (at least as far as the west is concerned) are being reported out of Australia, where the southern-hemisphere winter is in full swing.

As Bloomberg reported Thursday morning, the chilly weather and attendant surge in virus cases (just as epidemiologists had anticipated) could offer a preview of what’s in store for the US and Europe once Winter arrives. Then again, it could also explain the explosion of cases across the Sun Belt as more Americans sought shelter from the elements indoors.

At any rate, Australia’s second-most populous city Melbourne is experiencing a virus resurgence that – like the outbreak seen in the Sun Belt – has dwarfed the case tallies it reported back in March. The state of Victoria on Thursday reported yet another record high of 723 new infections, early 200 more than the previous record, which it had reported only a few days earlier.’

Moving on to the US, the biggest news over the last day was the US passing the 150,000 death threshold, propelled by a surge in deaths across the Sun Belt, as Florida, California and Texas have all reported record daily death totals in recent days. The US yesterday reported its largest daily tally for deaths since May 27, according to worldometer.

More vaccine news hit Thursday morning, but surprisingly, it wasn’t enough to ease the malaise gripping equity markets across the globe. According to BBG, J&J’s vaccine candidate has proven to be safe…on monkeys.

The reaction to the news suggests investors might finally be tiring of “pre-clinical” data. Though the notion that JNJ’s vaccine might be successful with just a single dose is probably notable, considering all the hubub over Moderna’s pricing plans.

Johnson & Johnson’s experimental coronavirus vaccine protected a group of macaques with a single shot in an early study, prompting the U.S. drugmaker to start trials in humans this month.

All of the animals that were exposed to the pandemic-causing pathogen six weeks after the injection were immune except one, who showed low levels of the virus, according to a study published in the medical journal Nature. The health-care behemoth kick-started human trials on July 22 in Belgium and in the U.S. earlier this week.

The data “show our SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate generated a strong antibody response and provided protection with a single dose,” Paul Stoffels, the drugmaker’s chief scientific officer, said in the statement. “The findings give us confidence as we progress our vaccine development and upscale manufacturing.”

J&J aims to embark on the last phase of tests in September, compressing the traditional timeline as it races against others such as GlaxoSmithKline and AstraZeneca for a shot to end the pandemic. Although others have been faster in development, with Astra having already administered its experimental vaccine to almost 10,000 people in the U.K. alone, eliciting protection with a single dose could prove to be an advantage in the logistical challenge of rolling out massive vaccination programs around the globe.

JNJ received a $456 million from the US government’s Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority via project warp speed and has already started talks with the US, the EU, and governments around the world about supplying its vaccine.

Finally, over in Europe, fears of a ‘second wave’ are intensifying as the UK has reported rising daily infection totals for a week now. What’s more, the infection numbers appear to be rising beyond the ‘hot spots’ in Catalonia and elsewhere. Germany and Poland are just two countries seeing a comeback.

Germany reported its highest daily number of new coronavirus cases in roughly six weeks on Thursday. While the country’s infection rate remained just above the key threshold of 1 (the point beyond which the virus is considered to be “spreading”), there were 839 new cases in the 24 hours through Thursday morning, bringing Germany’s total to 208,546, per data from JHU (these disheartening German numbers followed a record contraction in German GDP in Q2 which was reported on Thursday). Notably, the Dutch government, which memorably was the first in Europe to send students back to classrooms, has decided not to advise the wearing of masks in public spaces. Nearby Poland also reported a record daily jump in new cases (though it wasn’t alone)…

Poland reported 615 new cases, bringing its total to 45,031.

While the number of daily cases have continued to steadily decline in the UK from the peak in April, some areas are recording more infections than others, leading to local lockdowns in Leicester and Oldham, which we reported earlier this week. Still, nationwide, the UK reports fewer than 1,000 cases per day.

 

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Israel

Israel moved advanced missile systems to the Lebanese border on fears of a Hezbollah attack

AlMasdarNews

Israel Moves Advanced Missile Systems To Lebanese Border On Fears Of Hezbollah Attack

Via AlMasdarNews.com,

A Hebrew-language channel stated on Wednesday night that the Israeli army expects an attack by Hezbollah during the Islamic Eid Al-Adha holiday.

The Israeli Broadcasting Corporation, Kann, reported that Israel fears a “second attack” by Hezbollah in the next 48 hours, that is, during the celebration of Eid al-Adha.

 

File photo of Israel’s Iron Dome System.

The news channel reported that, based on this expectation, the Israeli army has strengthened its forces in the north near the Lebanese and Syrian borders, deploying advanced missile systems, special rockets and intelligence-gathering capabilities, for fear of a reaction from Hezbollah, after one of its members was killed in an airstrike on July 20th in Damascus.

The Israel-based news channel quoted a “Lebanese diplomat in Beirut” – whom they did not name – as saying that Hezbollah does not want a comprehensive escalation with Israel, but that it is looking for a real retaliation.

It is noteworthy that the strengthening of the Israeli forces in the northern region comes in light of the tensions along the Israeli-Lebanese border.

Hezbollah previously denied the Israeli army’s claims about their forces attempting a ‘sabotage’ operation in the occupied Sheba’a Farms region near the Syrian and Israeli borders.

END

6.Global Issues

A very important read…

Michael Every on worldly events.  Pay attention to the six screens and especially China’s move to de dollarize.  It will not work..

(Michael Every)

Rabobank: Everyone Thinks They Know What’s Going On When They Actually Don’t

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Try Not To Be Rash(omon)

The 1950 movie ‘Rashomon’ from director Akira Kurosawa a classic which infamously telling the story of a terrible crime from four different points of view. The “Rashomon effect” is a related term describing the notorious unreliability of eyewitnesses, where an event is given contradictory interpretations or descriptions by the individuals involved. A bit like markets: Everyone thinks they know what’s going on when they actually don’t.

With the full disclaimer that I don’t either, let’s try to thread together a narrative, however. In doing so I personally find an alternative cinematic technique —split screen, as used in The Thomas Crown Affair (1968)— works very well to try to tie simultaneous narratives unfolding in different places which all build to a unified conclusion.

On one screen we have the Fed, which is now lower-er forever-er, with no real change yesterday other than an extension of its swap lines and the FIMA repo facility through to March 2021, alongside a verbal reiteration that they are not even thinking about thinking about raising rates. With 5-year US yields hitting a new low of just below 0.25%, who needs yield curve control? Nobody is thinking about the Fed thinking about thinking about raising rates until at least 2026. And with 10-year yields at 0.57%, there isn’t more than one hike expected in the next decade.

On a second, the US Congress seems incapable of finding an adequate fiscal response to keep the economy afloat, despite the Fed’s pleas. Another few days, perhaps(?) Perhaps not. US tech giants were given a mixed reception, meanwhile. Some came to praise and some came to bury. Few came to seriously call for regulation or breaking them up

On a third, China is flexing its muscles. In Hong Kong, student activists were arrested last night in line with the new national security law, which will almost certainly trigger Western pushback. The Global Times also ran an extraordinary attack on Australia that went beyond the usual threat of massive economic consequences of ‘wrong actions’ to actually state it would “likely face unbearable consequences” if there were a US-China clash in which it chose the US side, as US allies in the Indo-Pacific region would then all be targets for the PLA. The article even underlines that Australia is “further away and less vulnerable to missiles fired from the Chinese mainland” (for now, at least).

On a fourth, the US is withdrawing 12,000 troops from Germany as, in the words of US President Trump, they won’t be taken for a “sucker” any longer. Yes, the move will take years. Yes, Congress might intervene. But a message is being sent to the most recalcitrant parts of Europe: wake up and smell the coffee – or brew your own. There are voices for and against this: but note Edward Luttwak, who knows more about Grand Strategy than any journalist, is in favour.

On a fifth, Japan is leaning towards joining the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing group as “The Quad” of India, Japan, Australia, and the US edge towards deeper military cooperation in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. That was as Chile announced it prefers building an undersea internet cable to New Zealand and Australia and then up to Japan rather than straight across to China. Thailand, however, announced it was signing up with China’s ZTE to build 5G access, and the Philippines agreed to do so with both Ericsson AND Huawei. Sides are being drawn up, even if it is telecoms that are marking ‘territory’ – apart from that whole nine-dash line thing. Yet that may not be the end of it.

On a sixth screen we see a report from Bank of China International (BOCI) which Reuters summarises thus: Chinese banks urged to switch away from SWIFT as US sanctions loom. Indeed the report, co-authored by a former foreign exchange regulator, advocates greater use of China’s own Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) instead of the Belgium-based, USD-centric, SWIFT. “A good punch to the enemy will save yourself from hundreds of punches from your enemies,” it adds, and. “We need to get prepared in advance, mentally and practically.” So we are openly seeing the word “enemies” used in investment-banking research now.

The report adds that if the US were to cut off some Chinese banks’ access to USD settlements via sanctions, China should consider stopping using USD as the anchor currency for its foreign exchange controls – or dedollarisation. It also recommends China develop legislation similar to the EU’s Blocking Statute, which theoretically allows the bloc to maintain trade with Iran, a country targeted by US sanctions.

So how do our screens link-up? The narrative is a very weak virus-plagued global economy (to be underlined by Q2 GDP today); a lower forever world, where fiscal enthusiasm may be waning regardless; where US-China tensions escalate as geopolitics is exacerbated by that weakness; sides being taken; and a worrying escalation in the rhetoric suggesting a potential point of praxis ahead. Of course, all of these were narratives we were already telling before the virus struck (and none of them matter to equity markets, who are running their own movie inside their head where everyone swims happily in rivers of cash forever without a care in the world).

CIPS’ data shows only USD19.8 billion in value was transacted through it daily in 2019 against US Treasury estimates of USD5 trillion through SWIFT. As importantly, CNY accounts for about 1.8% of transactions through SWIFT, and if one takes out CNY-HKD it is far below 1%. Neither statistic suggests there is going to be a shift to CIPS if China is put under the cosh by the US – certainly not if it is a binary choice between the two. More so when there is talk of missiles being fired at you (Australia), or of having to do your own on-ground fighting (Germany). Moreover, the SWIFT work-around the EU set up to trade with Iran, which BOCI is backing, is a tree that has produced no fruit. European firms understand what the potential consequences are of crossing US sanctions on Iran – it seems unlikely they will not see the same if the nuclear option were ever used on China. Yes, it’s a vast market. But it’s still small in SWIFT terms, and people just don’t want CNY.

In which case, the final shot of this movie still points to a China potentially isolated using CIPS to trade with a small subset of countries like Cambodia and Laos (both of which happily take USD on the street all day long), as well as Russia, probably, while the global takes a further hit and global markets lie divided by politics, currency, and clearing system just like they were in the 1930s when the gold standard ended.

Let’s hope those in charge aren’t too Rash(omon), and we never see this movie play out again.

end

An alternative thought of the dollar dying etc.

(Tom Luongo)

The Big Lies: The EU Is Fixed, The Dollar Is Dying, & COVID Will Kill You

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

Dyin’ ain’t much of a livin’, boy

– The Outlaw Josey Wales

The Davos Crowd is desperate.

That much has been clear to me for months.

From the moment they tied COVID-19 to the breaking of the oil markets back in March they have worked like no other time in history to convince us the world we knew was gone.

The latest iteration of this big lie is the all-out assault on the U.S. dollar. Now for months a few analysts like me have been steadfast in reminding everyone that no matter how much money the U.S. prints in the short run, it is only doing so because of the extreme levels of latent and active dollar demand in the world.

So, there is narrative and there is reality. And reality is that today there is huge demand for the U.S. dollar regardless of what the headlines tell you.

That said, that doesn’t mean that demand doesn’t ebb and flow. And now that we’re on the other side of the first wave of this crisis period, marginal dollar hoarding has slacked off.

This is most evident in the dramatic rise in the euro back above $1.17 and the British pound breaking back to challenge $1.30. But in the grand scheme of things these are just relief rallies within primary bear markets.

But in the past couple of weeks, coinciding nicely with a massive rally in the precious metals, there’s been a deluge of talk about the end of the dollar.

It’s easy to dismiss the perma-bears like Peter Schiff who has become a parody of himself at this point. But it’s not easy to dismiss it when all of a sudden Schiff is everywhere, taking the bait to be the guy who will tell everyone that the dollar is going to fail because, you know, money printing.

And, as an Austrian economist kinda guy, I agree with Peter, I just don’t agree that the dollar is going anywhere anytime soon.

It may gall him and other Austrians that the dollar can still be so thoroughly debased and still make up 62% of total foreign exchange reserves the world over or still dominate global trade (latest SWIFT Data).

But with China keeping its capital account closed and the European Central Bank holding rates below zero destroying any possibility of anyone diversifying their capital reserves into euros, where else can the big pool of capital go at this point?

And just don’t tell me gold.

Because while I love gold, own gold, advocate for gold, gold cannot and will not resume a central place in our monetary system until the day the dollar fails.

And no one who matters right now really wants the dollar to fail. And that includes the villain-of-the-day, China.

But it’s not just guys like Schiff or Alistair McLeod who are calling the tune right now. They were joined this week by none other than members of the the International Monetary Fund the mouthpiece of the Council on Foreign Relations and Goldman Sachs…

… but I repeat myself.

Goldman’s call is certainly reasonable, based on the idea that real interest rates have plummeted sending gold higher as the argument against holding it fails.

But when you have this many big stories planted in the media at the same time just ahead of an FOMC meeting, something is up.

They have all now called into question the U.S.’s central role in the global economy. This is a concerted effort to push this narrative during a period of extreme dollar weakness. They have tied it to the extraordinary measures taken by the Fed and the U.S. Treasury dept. earlier this year and the likelihood of another massive stimulus bill and/or bailout package between now and the election.

And it’s not even that I disagree with them, because I don’t. I just don’t agree that 2020 is the Year the Dollar Failed, no matter how tempting that title is to write.

Because, as always, you have to ask yourself the questions, “Why this? Why Now?”

The answer to those questions, in my opinion, is simple. They are timing this with the fundamental change to the European Union via the EU’s bright new shiny budget and COVID-19 relief plans which were agreed upon by the EU Council last week.

It’s a simple enough narrative that also neatly coincides with everything else we’re being bombarded with daily. And it goes something like this.

The EU is Fixed, The U.S. is Fucked.

So given that gold and silver are the most manipulated markets on the planet doesn’t anyone think it’s strange that silver, of all assets, explodes more than $8 per ounce over a three-week period? Climaxing into the end of a delivery month on the COMEX?

Really? After nearly twenty years of watching the silver market I can tell you that when we see behavior this out of the ordinary it’s because the people who wag the tail of the market dog want it to happen not because they’ve lost the script.

But I digress.

Everywhere we look there is another instance of U.S. lawmakers fighting among themselves, like the fiasco hearing with Attorney General William Barr or the pathetic grandstanding over the size and scope of the next massive stimulus bill which will rob savers and future generations of even more wealth.

It’s Mayor Jenny Durkan in Seattle throwing out the Federal troops there while issuing orders to her police chief to not escalate the violence as the violence on the streets escalates.

It’s the relentless propaganda trying to create a ‘second wave’ of COVID-19 to scare us all into staying home, canceling elections, and screaming obscenities at people who won’t wear a useless mask.

Europeans will play soccer but the baseball games are cancelled because a few players tested positive for COVID-19.

Meanwhile in Europe, everything is fixed now that they’ve given the European Commission tax and spend powers they don’t legally have.

But Trump is shredding the Constitution by sending Federal troops to defend Federal property after 50+ days of rioting, looting and trying to set the Federal Courthouse on fire in Portland, Oregon.

Am I the only one who sees the game here?

A rising euro, a falling dollar, gold touching $2000, Merkel’s “Alexander Hamilton” moment, U.S. cities burning and the ones not on fire are under siege from his incompetence in handling the virus.

Economic depression mixed with incompetent leadership is supposed to lead you to lose faith in the currency of that government. That’s the big lie.

It’s like that scene in Minority Report where they find the guy who supposedly kidnapped Anderton’s son. There was a quote, “orgy of evidence.”

The sheer volume of it is supposed to make you believe a lie because how can you argue with such a vast array of evidence, right?

And in the curious case of the collapsing dollar I’m Tom Cruise. I’m not throwing the dollar out the window to its death. I’m calling bullshit and saying, “Nope I’m not buying what they are selling.”

I’ll buy that story in a couple of years but I won’t today.

Just like I’m not buying that I’ll die from the Corona-chan, that hydroxychloroquine and zinc won’t protect me from it or that the EU doesn’t have a whole lotta real work to do before anything in Europe can be reasonably described as ‘fixed.’

Look, not to be too blunt about it but the U.S. is approaching screwed in the long run. And that’s nothing but a shame because when I look around the world and I’m not seeing a whole lot of rule of law or even nods to constitutionally-protected individual rights.

When I talk with readers they uniformly weep for what’s happening in the U.S.

So, while we may be at a low ebb in this cycle, there’s still a way back from which doesn’t involve complete collapse. That choice has yet to be made.

But forces have been unleashed to make that choice for us, to destroy the United States and its most productive people, of that I have zero doubt. But not all forces are irresistible. Some objects are immovable and when your currency dominates 86% of all global trade that’s not something moving.

So, ignore the big lie of The Davos Crowd because when there’s this amount of pressure to manufacture a false reality it is more indicative of desperation than omnipotence.

And there’s a lot more distance along this road to travel.

*  *  *

Join My Patreon if you want help navigating the road to the end of the road. Download and install the Brave Browser if you don’t think Google should be directing where that road leads.

7. OIL ISSUES

EU/USA/RUSSIA

(GEFIRA)

NordStream 2 Splits The Western World

Via GEFIRA,

If we were to paint the current situation with a broad brush, we would receive the following simplified picture.

  • The European Union is split into two camps: the old and new member states.
  • The West is split across the Atlantic: it is – roughly – Washington against Paris and Berlin.
  • The world is split into three rivalling superpowers: the United States (strong military and strong economy), Russia (strong military, weak economy) and China (weak military, strong economy).

Western Europe gravitates more to Russia than Eastern Europe does; Eastern Europe in turn gravitates more to the United States than Western Europe does.

The state of affairs on the Old Continent is as follows.

[1] Germany wants a stable energy supply in the form of natural gas and from among a number of providers it has decided on Russia because

[2] Russia has large natural gas deposits and being in need of hard currency is willing to sell its energy resources to any bidder.

[3] Germany and Russia countries entered a commercial agreement which resulted in the construction and completion of one pipeline laid on the bottom of the Baltic: NordStream 1.

[4] Since the capacity of one pipeline was not sufficient to satisfy the needs of Germany and other West European states, another agreement was concluded to build a second pipe along the bottom of the Baltic – NordStream 2 – which is now near completion.

[5] Both pipelines sidetrack eastern European countries – Ukraine, Poland, Czechia and Slovakia – which makes them alarmed because soon Russia will be able to cut off its gas supplies to and through those countries – the Yamal (Poland, Belarus) and Brotherhood (Czechia, Slovakia, Ukraine) pipelines – while continuing the provision of gas to Western Europe, thus breaking the economic solidarity of the European Union.

[6] The United States helped Western Europe out of trouble during (a) the First World War (against Germany), (b) The Second World War (against Germany) and – (c) the Cold War (against the Soviet Union) and so feels entitled to continue in this role.

[7] The United States perceives itself as the equivalent of the ancient Roman Empire in guarding the Pax Americana (its national and imperial interests) throughout the world but especially Europe; like the Roman Empire it has its military bases (legions) deployed to many parts of the world, including Europe and in particular Germany. Washington feels threatened by Russian economic inroads in Europe.

[8] Western Europe has long striven to emancipate itself from American guardianship, while Eastern Europe (in particular Poland as of now) has been looking to the United States for protection against Russia, the successor to the Soviet Union, because some Eastern European countries have had bitter historical experiences connected with Russia and the Soviet Union: (a) Poland (where anti-Russian sentiment is the strongest) was under Russian rule throughout the 19th century and under Soviet dominance for almost half a century after the Second World War; (b) two Hungarian national uprisings were suppressed respectively by Russia in 1849 and the Soviet Union in 1956; (c) Romania lost to the Soviet Union the whole north-eastern province of Moldova (whose inhabitants are Romanians) in 1940. The United States can therefore rely on Eastern European countries and use them as bridgeheads against Western Europe (Germany in particular) and its dealings with Russia.

[9] The European Union is split over the issue of the two pipelines connecting Russia and Germany. This split resulted in passing Directive 2009/73/EC, which is aimed against Russian commercial dominance as it requires the so called ownership unbundling, which means that (a) energy generation, (b) energy supply and (c) energy transmission must belong to different legal persons. This measure is said to have been designed to (a) guard against Europe’s dependence on one external supplier of energy, (b) counteract monopoly and (c) provide European customers with a choice. The requirement of split ownership of energy generation, supply and transmission is going to make life difficult for Russia or – to be precise – Russian Gazprom.

[10] In turn the United States in a glaringly patronising way passed the Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Act, which envisages punitive sanctions against any entity taking part in the construction of NordStream 2. The act is supposed to protect Western Europe – obviously against its will – against Russian dominance and ensure for the United States customers for its natural gas.

Source: BiznesAlert.pl.

The question arises why the United States wants to defend Western Europe and especially Germany against its will? Is it possible that German leaders do not see that the two pipelines pose a threat to the independence of their country?

  • It may be that the German leaders prefer Russian rather than American dependence.
  • It may be that they have no choice: the North Sea sources are for one reason or another not an option, nor is the gas from the Middle East.
  • It may also be that the German elites are much more interested in their own income than in the condition of their country, still less their nation to which they feel little commitment. Former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, for one, was very much involved with the NordStream project.
  • The German investors may view both NordStream pipelines as sources of private and corporate stable income. To this end they may be playing a double game: on the one hand encouraging Russians to continue with the construction of the pipe, while on the other shedding crocodile tears over Europe’s growing dependence on the eastern gas provider and thus allowing for the European Union to pass the said directive that will also enable them – if they create energy transmission companies that will take over some of the income from Gazprom – to draw larger benefits from the NordStream project.

Some Eastern European countries, while remaining ardent member-states of the Union, are doing their best to disrupt the German-Russian deal, which overlaps with Washington’s plans. This does not mean that we are facing any new exits from the European Union: far from it. The eastern member-states are firmly committed to their participation in it. Rather, the Union is going to be somewhat weakened because it is divided against itself, so to say. The eastern EU member-states are perhaps oversensitive when it comes to their dependence on Russia. Their leaders tend to think that it is Russia which wants to have control over them. They seem to be overlooking the fact that the NordStream deal has two parts to it: Russia and Germany. If Berlin cared about the sovereignty of the eastern member-states, it would not have entered into the agreement with Moscow. Yes, bypassing Poland, Ukraine, Czechia and Slovakia Russia can exert economic pressure on these countries by curtailing gas supplies to them without at the same time having to endanger its relations with Germany, the Netherlands or Great Britain. Yet, the two NordStream pipelines are as much an advantage to the Western members of the Union because they do without transit money that would otherwise have to be paid to Belarus, Poland, Ukraine, Slovakia and Czechia, thus making the gas cheaper and because – if the ownership unbundling principle is effected – the West may also have a larger share in the gas supply.

New member states seem to be left to their own devices by their older partners. Washington is their only hope, but Washington is merely acting in defence of its own interests, eying suspiciously Berlin and Moscow. Germany has built the present equivalent of the old project of Mitteleuropa – Middle Europe Project – which meant creating a ring of economically dependent states in Central Europe. At present Berlin to a larger degree than Moscow controls the destiny of its eastern and southern, close and farther neighbours. Germany’s agents of influence operating in Eastern Europe will make every endeavour to eventually bring to power in Warsaw, Prague, Bratislava, Budapest, Bucharest and Kiev people who will take into account German interests. American agents of influence with do the same. If Berlin prevails, then Germany will strengthen its grip on the European Union; if America prevails, then the EU is going to be weakened.

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1754 DOWN .0026 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.12 UP 0.074 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3025   UP   0.0046  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3410 UP .0068 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 26 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1754 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 7.73 POINTS OR 0.23% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 172.55 POINTS OR 0.69%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,81%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 172.55 POINTS OR 0.69%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.73 POINTS OR 0.23%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 81% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 57,88  POINTS OR 0.69%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1954.10

silver:$23.37-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.55% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.21 DOWN 5  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 93.57 UP 11 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.32% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +02%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.32%//DOWN 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.97 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 65 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.54% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.51% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1839  UP     .0059 or 59 basis points

USA/Japan: 104.80 DOWN .240 OR YEN UP 24  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3088 UP .01104 POUND UP 110  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 99 basis points to 1.3441

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0088    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0044  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.9992 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +02%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 0.55 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.20 DOWN 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.11 DOWN 44  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 141,47  2.31%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 442.61 POINTS OR 3.45%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 105.80 POINTS 2.13%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN  209.60 POINTS or .291%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 652.10 POINTS OR 3.28%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 40.12 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 43.13 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    73.29  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.72 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 72 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.54 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  40.12//

 

 

BRENT :  43.14

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.549  down 3 basis points…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.20..down 4 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1839 ( UP 59   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:104.80 DOWN .240 (YEN UP 24 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.011 DOWN 44 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3088 UP 110  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.9992

 

 

the Russian rouble 73.29   down 0.72 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( down 72 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3441 DOWN 99 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.54%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 225.92 POINTS OR 0.85%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 44.87 POINTS OR 0.43%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  25.40 CLOSED UP 1.30

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.260%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

USDollar, Bond Yields Tumble After Greatest Economic Collapse Ever

A re-weakening in jobless claims data (confirming no v-shaped recovery), a record-breaking collapse in GDP and consumption (admittedly backward-looking) and Trump tweet hinting at election delays all spoiled the party early on in US equity land but around 1030ET ‘someone’ decided this mini-dip was for buying and everything surged ahead of tonight’s mega earnings data. Only Nasdaq managed gains on the day, however with The Dow the biggest laggard…

Look at The Nasdaq… isn’t it pretty!!!

The bounce appeared to be triggered by a technical test by The Dow of its 200DMA and 50DMA…

The Fed better be ready to do some more buying…

Source: Bloomberg

FANG Stocks rallied intraday ahead of tonight’s earnings, bouncing off unch for the week…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar continued its pattern of gains in Asia and weakness in Europe and US sessions…

Source: Bloomberg

Breaking down below a critical uptrend line…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold and Silver were spooked briefly higher on Trump’s tweet but retreated to end the day – unusually – lower…

Treasuries were bid with the long-end outperforming (30Y -4bps, 2Y -1bps), 10Y is outperforming on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Pushing the entire yield curve to record low yields…

Source: Bloomberg

As Stocks remain near record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

With 10Y back at the spike lows from the very worst of the market collapse in March…

Source: Bloomberg

Yield curve has flattened significantly since The Fed statement…

Source: Bloomberg

And before we leave ratesville, we note that the Dec 2021 Fed Funds futures is implying a -3bps rate… easing since The Fed yesterday…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were mixed today with Ethereum and Litecoin best but still a big week…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum tested back up to $330 intraday…

Source: Bloomberg

The energy complex was hit today with WTI slammed back below $40 to a $38 handle intraday (before panic-buying lifted it back)…

And Nattie tumbling hard…

And finally, ahead of tonight’s earnings-pocalypse, a quick look at the big tech names vs their consensus EPS…

Source: Bloomberg

Notice any similarities?

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

Stocks, Bond Yields Tumble; Gold Jumps After Trump Election-Delay Tweet

Markets hate “uncertainty” as the tired old phrase goes but after yesterday’s Fed meeting basically confirmed Powell is out of ammo for anything super-enthusiastic, this morning’s tweet by President Trump raising the specter of delaying the election has sent stocks and bond yields reeling and gold higher...

Stocks are rapidly extending overnight losses…

Treasury yields are pushing to new record lows…

And gold is lifting…

As the dollar is dumped…

Get back to work Mr.Powell!

END

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

USA 2nd quarter GDP crashes by 32.9%

(zerohedge)

US Q2 GDP Crashes By A Record 32.9%, Worse Than Great Depression

The biggest question we had ahead of today’s unprecedented GDP drop was “how do we show it on a chart without losing the impact of all other prints?” Well, for better or worse, this is the best we could come up with: at -32.9% annualized, Q2 GDP just plunged by the most on record.

And while the drop – which was generally priced in – was some 5 times worse than the adjusted Q1 GDP of -6.9%, it was just fractionally better than the -34.5% expected. Then again, with a third of the US economy effectively going offline in Q2, a worse outcome than during the great depression, a few percent here and there doesn’t really matter.

Some more details:

The second-quarter decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in consumer spending, exports, inventory investment, business investment, and housing investment that were partially offset by an increase in government spending. Imports, a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

That said, the biggest contributor to the overall GDP drop was the crash in consumption – the decrease in consumer spending reflected decreases in services (led by health care) and goods (led by clothing and footwear).

Breaking down the components of GDP we get the following:

  • Personal Consumption accounted for the bulk, or -25.05%, of the overall -32.9% GDP drop, and 5x more than the -4.75% Q1 GDP drop
  • Fixed Investment subtracted another -5.38% from Q2 GDP, far worse than the modest -0.23% drop in Q1. Nonresidential fixed investment, or spending on equipment, structures and intellectual property fell 27% in 2Q after falling 6.7% prior quarter
  • Change in Private Inventories subtracted another -3.98%, 3x more than the -1.34% in Q1
  • Net Exports contributed 0.68% to GDP, consisting of a -9.38% drop from Exports offset by a 10.06% boost from imports. The decrease in exports primarily reflected a decrease in goods (led by capital goods).
  • Government consumption was a paltry 0.82%, up from 0.22% in the previous quarter

For those following the PCE data, the GDP price index fell 1.8% in 2Q after rising 1.4% prior quarter; core PCE q/q fell -1.1% in 2Q after rising 1.6% in the prior quarter.

Meanwhile, even though we already knew this, real disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income adjusted for taxes and inflation—increased 44.9% in the second quarter after increasing 2.6% in the first quarter. The increase in DPI was more than accounted for by an increase in personal current transfer receipts – i.e., government social benefits. Personal saving as a percent of disposable personal income was 25.7 percent in the second quarter, compared with 9.5 percent in the first quarter.

That said, the GDP collapse was expected, and in fact may be spun as “better than expected.” The real question is what happens next, and is Q3 the V-shaped recovery quarter. Alas, as both the Fed yesterday, and we showed last week, the high frequency data indicate that the US economy peaked  in late June and is once again rolling over.

end

Initial jobless claims: 1.4 million// continuing claims also spike//no V shaped recovery here!

(zerohedge)

 

Continuing Jobless Claims Spike As Almost 50% Of Lost Jobs “May Be Gone Permanently”

Initial Jobless Claims was above a million last week for the nineteenth straight week, and rose for the second week in a row…

 

But, Continuing Jobless Claims greatly disappointed, rising for the first time in 8 weeks from 16.15mm to 17.02mm…

 

A total of 54.13 million Americans have now applied for jobless benefits for the first time since the pandemic lockdowns began (thats over 330 layoffs for every COVID death in America), and massively more than the 22.1 million during the great financial crisis.

However, as Michael Snyder details below, under the surface of these numbers, things are far from rosy looking forward.

When millions of Americans were losing their jobs at the beginning of this pandemic, we were told not to worry because the lockdowns were just temporary and virtually all of those workers would be going back to their old jobs once the lockdowns ended.  Well, now we are finding out that was not even close to true.  Over the last 18 weeks, more than 52 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits, and a very large percentage of them are dealing with a permanent job loss.  In fact, one brand new survey discovered that 47 percent of all unemployed workers now believe that their “job loss is likely to be permanent”.  The following comes from a USA Today article entitled “Almost half of all jobs lost during pandemic may be gone permanently”

In April, 78% of those in households experiencing job loss felt that that situation would be temporarily. But now, 47% think that job loss is likely to be permanent, according to The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

What that number tells us is that we are facing the worst employment crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

All of those permanently unemployed workers are eventually going to need new jobs, but meanwhile the U.S. economy as a whole is in a free fall that is absolutely stunning.  On Thursday, we are scheduled to get the GDP number for the second quarter, and everyone is expecting that it will be really bad

Data due Thursday are forecast to show U.S. gross domestic product plummeted an annualized 34.8% in the second quarter, the most in records dating back to the 1940s, after the spread of Covid-19 prompted Americans to stay home and states to order widespread lockdowns.

This downturn has been particularly hard on small businesses.  Just check out these numbers

  • Yelp reported 71,500 businesses that were listed on their site have closed for good since March 1.
  • 80% of independent restaurants aren’t sure they’ll survive the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Nearly half of all small-business members of the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce lost 100% of their sales or closed down completely.

What a nightmare.

But the third quarter was when the U.S. economy was supposed to come roaring back to life.

We were told that it would be the greatest economic comeback in our history, but instead the numbers are telling us that the economy is actually starting to slow down once again.

In fact, U.S. consumer confidence in July is much lower than it was in June…

U.S. CONSUMER confidence fell in July to a reading of 92.6 as coronavirus cases surged around the country, shuttering some bars and other businesses and raising concerns about the future of the economy.

The Conference Board reported Tuesday that the index fell in July from a reading of 98.3 in June. The drop is more significant than economists predicted, and is due mainly to a decrease in consumers’ economic expectations for the short-term future.

In addition, we just witnessed the largest decline in wholesale inventories since the peak of the last financial crisis

June was supposed to be the month of second-derivative beats in economic data, reaffirming the manic bid in stocks. For Wholesale Inventories it was not.

Against expectations of a rebound from a 1.2% drop in May to a 0.5% drop in June, wholesale inventories actually tumbled 2.0% MoM, the worst since the peak of the great financial crisis…

So it doesn’t look like any sort of a “recovery” is happening.

Instead, it appears that we are sliding into the next chapter of this new economic depression.

In June, 19 percent of all U.S. small businesses were closed, but now that number is up to 24.5 percent.

That certainly isn’t progress.

With each passing day, more companies are announcing layoffs.  And every worker that gets laid off is another American that doesn’t have a paycheck to spend.  During the last recession, millions of Americans slid out of the middle class, and we are watching it happen again.

Our elected leaders in Washington are desperate to do something about this, and almost all of them seem to agree that more socialist programs are the answer.  A fifth “stimulus bill” is being put together, and the Urban Institute is warning that if Congress does not hurry we could see the poverty rate in this country rise substantially

Millions more Americans will be thrown into poverty if Congress fails to enact three policies meant to help families get through economic hardships related to the pandemic, according to a new study by the Urban Institute.

The report finds that the poverty rate for the last five months of 2020 will rise to 11.9% if expanded unemployment-insurance benefits, a second round of stimulus checks, and increased SNAP allotments are not approved, a significant increase over the projected annual rate of 8.9%.

If the Urban Institute thinks that an 11.9 percent poverty rate is bad, just wait until they see what things will be like in this country a few years from now.

Our entire system is in the process of melting down, but it will take some time for the drama that we are watching to fully play out.  Our leaders in Washington and the bureaucrats over at the Federal Reserve will keep flooding the system with money in a misguided attempt to fix things, and this will result in exceedingly painful inflation.

The cost of everything (including essentials such as food) will be going way up, and that means that your money will increasingly become less and less valuable.

If you could print your way to prosperity, Venezuela and Zimbabwe would be the wealthiest nations on the entire planet today.

At this point, almost everyone in Venezuela is a “millionaire”, but almost everyone is also living in extreme poverty.

History has shown that wildly printing money doesn’t work, but the U.S. is going down the exact same path, and it isn’t going to be pretty.

Even though things are quite crazy out there right now, this is our window of opportunity to get prepared for the troubled times that are ahead, because things are not going to be getting any easier from here on out.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Trump sparks a firestorm with suggestion to delay the election

(zerohedge)

Trump Sparks Firestorm With Suggestion To Delay Elections ‘Until Vote Can Be Safe’

President Trump fired off a Thursday tweet that’s about to dominate the weekend news cycle – suggesting that the 2020 election could be postponed over concerns that mail-in ballots will lead to “the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history,” adding “It will be a great embarrassment to the USA. Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???”

Trump’s tweet ignited a firestorm from the left:

Both CNN‘s Manu Raju and Business Insider went with the very editorialized “baseless” to describe voter fraud, despite a plethora of evidence it’s indeed based (see below).

And of course, this is also a giant distraction:

This plays into an April warning by former VP Joe Biden, who said “Mark my words I think he is gonna try to kick back the election somehow, come up with some rationale why it can’t be held.”

“We have to figure out how we are going to conduct a full and fair and safe election in November and no one should have to risk their lives to cast a ballot,” Biden added.

The Trump campaign’s ‘War Room’ account replied to the president’s tweet with a report that “68% of Voters Are Concerned About The Security of Mail-In Ballots.”

A poll in late June by The Hill – HarrisX found that 68% of registered voters were either ‘somewhat or very concerned about the possibility of tampering with mail-in ballots.’

Republicans are much more likely to be worried about it, which is likely a reflection of President Trump‘s rhetoric on the issue. Trump has repeatedly warned, without providing evidence, that mail-in balloting is subject to fraud.

Eighty percent of Republicans in the survey said they were somewhat or very concerned with tampering with mail-in ballots, compared to 68 percent of independents and 56 percent of Democratic voters.

Fifty-eight percent said they were worried about the privacy of their vote if they voted by mail, including 70 percent of Republicans, 53 percent of independents and 51 percent of Democrats.

But voters overall were more concerned about being exposed to the coronavirus when voting in person. –The Hill

In May, Trump tweeted that mail-in ballots would lead to the “greatest Rigged Election in history.”

As Michael Graham of InsideSources wrote in late May:

Concerns about mail-in voting and fraud aren’t new.

A bipartisan Commission on Federal Election Reform, co-chaired by former President Jimmy Carter and former Secretary of State James Baker declared, “Absentee ballots remain the largest source of potential voter fraud.”

In the 2018 midterms, a congressional election in North Carolina was overturned and had to be re-held because an unscrupulous Republican operative was using mail-in ballots to scam the system.

And the Public Interest Legal Foundation (PILF) just released data that more than 28 million ballots by mail went unaccounted for from 2012 to 2018, with more than one million going to the incorrect address in 2018 alone.

“Absentee ballot fraud is the most common, the most expensive to investigate, and it can never be reversed after an election,” said the organization’s president J. Christian Adams.

“The status quo was already bad for mail balloting. The proposed emergency fix is worse.”

More recently, “in a Supreme Court contest in Wisconsin in April, about 1,600 ballots were discovered the morning after Election Day in a mail processing facility in Chicago — 1,600 voters whose ballots did not count,” The Hill reports. “Hundreds more who applied for absentee ballots did not receive them in time, according to a report by the state Board of Elections.”

And literally the same day President Trump tweeted that mail-in ballots “would be forged,” the Department of Justice announced a mail carrier in West Virginia was being charged with attempted election fraud by committing forgery on mail-in ballots.

*  *  *

Of course it should be noted that the executive branch doesn’t have the authority to change the date of presidential elections – rather, it would be in hands of Congress to decide such a drastic measure.

end

 

Harvard Prof charged with false statements and failing to report income from Wuhan University

(zerohedge)

Harvard Prof Charged With False Statements, Failing To Report Income From Wuhan University Of Technology

In what we’re sure is just an honest mistake and total coincidence, Harvard University professor Dr. Charles Lieber was charged yesterday “in a superseding indictment with tax offenses for failing to report income he received from Wuhan University of Technology (WUT) in Wuhan, China.”

The United States District Attorney of Massachusetts said yesterday that Lieber, who had already been arrested on January 28, 2020, was indicted by a federal grand jury in Boston on two counts of making and subscribing a false income tax return and two counts of failing to file reports of foreign bank and financial accounts with the Internal Revenue Service. Then, in June 2020, Lieber was indicted on two counts of making false statements to federal authorities.

The DA alleges that Lieber served as the Principal Investigator of the Lieber Research Group at Harvard University, which received more than $15 million in federal research grants between 2008 and 2019. Unbeknownst to his employer, Harvard University, Lieber allegedly became a “Strategic Scientist” at WUT and, later, a contractual participant in China’s Thousand Talents Plan from at least 2012 through 2015.

China’s Thousand Talents Plan is described as “one of the most prominent Chinese talent recruitment plans designed to attract, recruit and cultivate high-level scientific talent in furtherance of China’s scientific development, economic prosperity and national security.”

He was paid a salary of up to $50,000 per month, living expenses of up to $150,000 and was awarded more than $1.5 million to establish a research lab at WUT. It is alleged that in 2018 and 2019, Lieber lied to federal authorities about his involvement in the Thousand Talents Plan and his affiliation with WUT.

He is accused of not paying taxes on money earned in 2013 and 2014 and it is alleged that he, together with WUT officials, opened a bank account at a Chinese bank during a trip to Wuhan in 2012. WUT “periodically deposited portions of Lieber’s salary into that account.”

We reported on Lieber when he was arrested back in January here. We noted the two Chinese nationals he was found to be working with – one a Boston University researcher who was once a lieutenant in the People’s Liberation Army, according to prosecutors, and another who was a cancer researcher who tried to smuggle 21 vials of biological materials in his sock – allegedly.

“Lieber’s actions look like an unvarnished attempt at espionage, complete with an extremely seductive monetary reward,” we noted at the time.

END

Congress now proposes a taxpayer funded bailout of the $550 billion Commercial Mortgaged Back Security industry.

(zerohedge)

In Unprecedented Move, Congress Proposes Taxpayer-Funded Bailout Of $550 Billion CMBS Industry

Well, with everyone and everything else getting a bailout, may as well go all the way.

Two months after we reported that the state of California is trying to turn centuries of finance on its head by allowing businesses to walk away from commercial leases – in other words to make commercial debt non-recourse – a move the California Business Properties Association said “could cause a financial collapse”, attempts to bail out commercial lenders have reached the Federal level, with the WSJ reporting that lawmakers have introduced a bill to provide cash to struggling hotels and shopping centers that weren’t able to pause mortgage payments after the coronavirus shut down the U.S. economy.

The bill would set up a government-backed funding vehicle which companies could tap to stay current on their mortgages. It is meant in particular to help those who borrowed in the $550 billion CMBS market in which mortgages are re-packaged into bonds and sold to Wall Street. What it really represents, is a bailout of the only group of borrowers that had so far not found access to the Fed’s various generous rescue facilities: and that’s where Congress comes in.

To be sure, the commercial real estate market is imploding, and as we reported at the start of the month, some 10% of loans in commercial mortgage-backed securities were 30 or more days delinquent at the end of June, including nearly a quarter of loans tied to the hard-hit hotel industry, according to Trepp LLC.

“The numbers are getting more dire and the projections are getting more stern,” said Rep. Van Taylor (R., Texas), who is sponsoring the bill alongside Rep. Al Lawson (D., Fla.).

 

Van Taylor (R-Texas) is sponsoring the bill to aid hotels and shopping centers.

Under the proposal, banks would extend money to help these borrowers and the facility would provide a Treasury Department guarantee that banks are repaid. The funding would come from a $454 billion pot set aside for distressed businesses in the earlier stimulus bill.

Richard Pietrafesa owns three hotels on the East Coast that were financed with CMBS loans. They have recently had occupancy of around 50% or less, which doesn’t bring in enough revenue to make mortgage payments, he said.

He said he is now two months behind on payments for one of his properties, a Fairfield Inn & Suites in Charleston, S.C. He has money set aside in a separate reserve, he said, but his special servicer hasn’t allowed him to access it to make debt payments.

“It’s like a debtor’s prison,” Mr. Pietrafesa said.

Those magic words, it would appear, is all one needs to say these days to get a government and/or Fed-sanctioned bailout. Because in a world taken over by zombies, failure is no longer an option.

While any struggling commercial borrower that was previously in good financial standing would be eligible to apply for funds to cover mortgage payments, the facility is designed specifically for CMBS borrowers.

It gets better, because not only are taxpayers ultimately on the hook via the various Fed-Treasury JVs that will fund these programs, but the new money will by default be junior to existing insolvent debt. As the Journal explains, “many of these borrowers have provisions in their initial loan documents that forbid them from taking on more debt without additional approval from their servicers. The proposed facility would instead structure the cash infusions as preferred equity, which isn’t subject to the debt restrictions.

Yes, it’s also means that the new capital is JUNIOR to the debt, which means that if there is another economic downturn, the taxpayer funds get wiped out first while the pre-existing debt – the debt which was unreapayble to begin with – will remain on the books!

Perhaps sensing the shitstorm that this proposal would create, the WSJ admits that “the preferred equity would be considered junior to other debt but must be repaid with interest before the property owner can pull money out of the business.”

What was left completely unsaid is that the existing impaired CMBS debt will instantly become money good thanks to the junior capital infusion from – drumroll – idiot taxpayers who won’t even understand what is going on.

How did this ridiculously audacious proposal come to being? Well, Taylor led a bipartisan group of more than 100 lawmakers who last month signed a letter asking the Federal Reserve and Treasury to come up with a solution for the CMBS issues. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell have indicated that this may be an issue best addressed by Congress.

In other words, while the Fed will be providing the special purpose bailout vehicle, it is ultimately a decision for Congress whether to bail out thousands of insolvent hotels and malls.

And if some in the industry have warned that an attempt to rescue the CMBS market would disproportionately benefit a handful of large real-estate owners, rather than small-business owners, it is because they are precisely right: roughly 80% of CMBS debt is held by a handful of funds who will be the ultimate beneficiaries of this unprecedented bailout; funds which have spent a lot of money lobbying Messrs Taylor and Lawson.

“This started with employees in my district calling and saying ‘I lost my job’,” Taylor said, clearly hoping that he is dealing with absolute idiots.

And while it is unclear if this bill will pass – at this point there is literally money flying out of helicopters and the US deficit is exploding by hundreds of billions every month so who really gives a shit if a few more billionaires are bailed out by taxpayers – should this happen, well readers may want to close out the trade we called the “The Next Big Short“, namely CMBX 9, whose outlier exposure to hotels which had emerged as the most impacted sector from the pandemic.

Alternatively, those who wish to piggyback on this latest egregious abuse of taxpayer funds, this crucifxion of capitalism and latest glorification of moral hazard, and make some cash in the process should do the opposite of the “Next Big Short” and buy up the BBB- (or any other deeply impaired) tranche of the CMBX Series 9, which will quickly soar to par if this bailout is ever voted through.

END
Herman Cain dies of Covid 19
(zerohedge)

Former GOP Presidential Candidate, Trump Fed Pick Herman Cain Dies After Battle With Coronavirus

Herman Cain, the former Godfather’s Pizza CEO and one-time Republican presidential candidate who campaigned on a sweeping tax reform plan called the 9-9-9 plan, died Thursday morning after a month long battle with COVID-19. He was 74.

Cain beat Stage 4 colon cancer back in 2006, and has been described by friends and family as a fighter. He was admitted to the hospital due to his COVID-19 infection on July 1. He was diagnosed with the virus two days prior, roughly a week after attending Trump’s Tulsa, Oklahoma rally.

However, it’s impossible to say for certain where Cain was infected (though several of Trump’s campaign staff from the event did contract the virus). Initially after being admitted to the hospital, Cain’s spokesman said he didn’t need a ventilator, and was in “good spirits”.

Cain grew up in Georgia, where he lived at the time of his death. He was the head of “Black Voices for Trump” and had recently signed on to host a new show on Newsmax called “Herman Cain’s America”.

Cain’s name returned to the front page last year when President Trump was considering him for an open seat on the Fed board of governors. However, Cain’s path to the nomination was sabotaged by complains about the sexual indiscretions that helped undermine his 2012 GOP primary campaign (for the nomination eventually won by now Sen. Mitt Romney). However, he once served as director of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas.

Dan Calabrese, a longtime writer, and editor of Cain’s website, published a touching obituary written by a longtime friend and staffer. Read it below in full:

* * *

You’re never ready for the kind of news we are grappling with this morning. But we have no choice but to seek and find God’s strength and comfort to deal with it.

Herman Cain – our boss, our friend, like a father to so many of us – has passed away. He’s entering the presence of the Savior he’s served as an associate minister at Antioch Baptist Church in Atlanta for, and preparing for his reward.

Romans 2:6-7 says: “God ‘will repay each person according to what they have done.’ To those who by persistence in doing good seek glory, honor and immortality, he will give eternal life.” By that measure, we expect the boss is in for some kind of welcome, because all of us who knew him  are well aware of how much good he did.

Let me deal with some of the particulars of the last few weeks. We knew when he was first hospitalized with COVID-19 that this was going to be a rough fight. He had trouble breathing and was taken to the hospital by ambulance. We all prayed that the initial meds they gave him would get his breathing back to normal, but it became clear pretty quickly that he was in for a battle.

We didn’t release detailed updates on his condition to the public or to the media because neither his family nor we thought there was any reason for that. There were hopeful indicators, including a mere five days ago when doctors told us they thought he would eventually recover, although it wouldn’t be quick. We were relieved to be told that, and passed on the news via Herman’s social media. And yet we also felt real concern about the fact that he never quite seemed to get to the point where the doctors could advance him to the recovery phase.

Herman was 74. Although he was basically pretty healthy in recent years, he was still in a high-risk group because of his history with cancer. We all prayed so hard every day. We knew the time would come when the Lord would call him home, but we really liked having him here with us, and we held out hope he’d have a full recovery.

Herman had just started hosting a new show on Newsmax TV. He was so excited about it, and so pumped up about playing a role in the 2020 election campaign. At an age when a lot of people are looking to slow down, he was taking on new projects, booking speaking opportunities. Ever the dealmaker, he would fill me in with details of his negotiations with people on any number of things. I would always tell him I should have him negotiate my deals with my business’s other clients, because he did them better than anyone.

The last time I talked to him was when he was getting ready to start the Newsmax show. He was really pumped about it, and I was happy for him because he’d walked away from a nice contributor gig at Fox a couple years early to head a Super PAC. When that ran its course, Herman really wanted to get back into TV, and this afforded him a beautiful opportunity. Alas, he only ever got to host one episode.

But there was so much more to him than the public saw, and certainly more than the media presented to you. Most people heard of Herman for the first time when he ran for president in 2011. What they didn’t know was his business background. They didn’t know how he had started his career as a civilian employee of the Navy. It was funny to us because sometimes political pundits portrayed him as kind of a goof – having no idea that during his time working for the Navy, he was literally a rocket scientist.

Many people don’t know about his years climbing the corporate ladder at Pillsbury, at Burger King and finally as CEO of Godfather’s Pizza. I will always remember the first time I became aware of him. It was 12 years before I worked with him for the first time. It was the now-famous encounter between Herman and Bill Clinton in which the boss schooled the president on the finer points of small-business finance, and I can’t describe it any better than I can just let you watch it:

Herman could handle himself in a situation like that because he knew who he was, and he wasn’t intimidated by anyone, including the president of the United States.

When I launched the North Star Writers Group syndicate in 2005, I was looking for good writers and thinkers who were not signed to syndicates, and I was surprised to learn that Herman Cain – the guy who had schooled Bill Clinton on national TV – was a free agent. I tracked down contact information for him and told his office I would like to syndicate him. Two days later I had a signed contract, and it kicked off a 15-year professional relationship and friendship that I will treasure for the rest of my life.

It was only a few months later that he informed me of his cancer diagnosis, but he assured me he would continue writing his column every week. Even though I told him that was the last thing he needed to concern himself with, he did it. He never told me he would do something that he didn’t come through on.

In 2007, my business was struggling and I was having a hard time finding a direction for it. Herman welcomed me to come see him in Atlanta, and he spent an entire day with me going over the particulars of my business. Together we drew up an action plan, and he gave me some firm and pointed advice on some things I needed to do. This guy had helped lead some of the biggest companies in the world, and he could have charged massive consulting fees for this sort of thing. But he did it all for free, and he kept working with me over the years to make sure things stayed on the right track.

I haven’t even gotten into his experiences as what he called an ABC – an American Black Conservative – because his politics seems so low on the list of things I want to tell you about him right now. He was one of the most important figures to ever come into my life, and I can’t wrap my head, or my heart, around the fact that he’s gone. I don’t think I’ll be able to for a long time.

But I want you to understand just what our world has lost today. There aren’t many people like Herman Cain, and it behooves us to truly cherish the ones we’re given. His wife Gloria – his children Melanie and Vincent – and his grandchildren…they need our love, our support and our prayers. Nothing I talked about above meant as much to him as these wonderful people did, and because he loved them so much, we will continue to feel his impact on the world through them.

I’m sorry I had to bring you bad news this morning. But the good news is that we had a man so good, so solid, so full of love and faith . . . that his death hits us this hard. Thank God for a man like that.

Rest well in His presence, Boss. We love you.

* * *

Source: HermanCain.com

end

 

Fauci is accused of a misinformation campaign against the use of Hydroxychloroquine: Ohio Governor wants state officials to reverse prohibition

(zerohedge)

 

Fauci Accused Of ‘Misinformation Campaign’ Against Hydroxychloroquine; Ohio Gov Wants State Officials To Reverse Prohibition

Update (1240ET): Ohio Governor Mike DeWine (R) says he agrees with FDA Commissioner Steven Hahn (see below), and has asked the state medical board to “halt their new rule prohibiting the selling or dispensing of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine for the treatment or prevention of COVID-19.”

 

With the science behind the use of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) to treat COVID-19 far from settled, more than a few people have noted the aggressive campaign against the widely-prescribed anti-malaria drug.

The anti-HCQ push has infected Silicon Valley as well – as tech giants have been labeling pro-hydroxychloroquine content as ‘misinformation’ – most recently banishing a press conference by a group of doctors touting the drug from just about every platform.

To that end, Yale epidemiologist Dr. Harvey Risch has accused Dr. Anthony Fouci of waging a “misinformation campaign” against the drug, according to Just The News.

On Tuesday during an interview on “Good Morning America,” Fauci further downplayed the drug’s purported benefit, claiming that “the overwhelming prevailing clinical trials that have looked at the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine have indicated that it is not effective in [treating] coronavirus disease.

Risch, however, is sharply criticizing Fauci’s approach to evaluating the drug’s effectiveness, arguing that repeated trials and tests have shown that it is markedly effective at treating COVID-19 so long as it is administered properly.

On Tuesday, Risch went further, charging in an interview with Just the News that Fauci is perpetrating a “misinformation campaign” in his opposition to the drug.

Fauci “has been maintaining a studious position that only randomized controlled trial evidence has any value,” Risch said, “and everything else he calls anecdotal.” –Just The News

In a Newsweek Op-Ed published last week, Risch called HCQ “the key to defeating COVID-19,” and said it was particularly effective in conjunction with one of two antibiotics and zinc, saying it has “shown to be highly effective.”

Risch said the drug could save 100,000 lives if widely deployed.

Meanwhile, Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Stephen Hahn noted that some medical observational studies “suggest a benefit” to the drug, also according to Just The News.

So the FDA looks at all what we call ‘the totality of data,’” Hahn said in a Tuesday morning radio interview with Florida radio host Drew Steele. “There are observational studies that suggest a benefit. There are five randomized trials that did not show a benefit to hydroxychloroquine, both in the prophylactic setting and in the treatment — both early and late.” –Just The News

More recently, Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX) announced that he would be taking “zinc, erythromycin and hydroxychloroquine” after being diagnosed with COVID-19 on Wednesday.

end
(SPECIAL THANKS  TO ROBERT H FOR SENDING THIS FOR US)

The Key to Defeating COVID-19 Already Exists. Hydroxychloroquine. We Need to Start Using It

As professor of epidemiology at Yale School of Public Health, I have authored over 300 peer-reviewed publications and currently hold senior positions on the editorial boards of several leading journals. I am usually accustomed to advocating for positions within the mainstream of medicine, so have been flummoxed to find that, in the midst of a crisis, I am fighting for a treatment that the data fully support but which, for reasons having nothing to do with a correct understanding of the science, has been pushed to the sidelines. As a result, tens of thousands of patients with COVID-19 are dying unnecessarily. Fortunately, the situation can be reversed easily and quickly.

I am referring, of course, to the medication hydroxychloroquine. When this inexpensive oral medication is given very early in the course of illness, before the virus has had time to multiply beyond control, it has shown to be highly effective, especially when given in combination with the antibiotics azithromycin or doxycycline and the nutritional supplement zinc.

On May 27, I published an article in the American Journal of Epidemiology (AJE) entitled, “Early Outpatient Treatment of Symptomatic, High-Risk COVID-19 Patients that Should be Ramped-Up Immediately as Key to the Pandemic Crisis.” That article, published in the world’s leading epidemiology journal, analyzed five studies, demonstrating clear-cut and significant benefits to treated patients, plus other very large studies that showed the medication safety.

Physicians who have been using these medications in the face of widespread skepticism have been truly heroic. They have done what the science shows is best for their patients, often at great personal risk. I myself know of two doctors who have saved the lives of hundreds of patients with these medications, but are now fighting state medical boards to save their licenses and reputations. The cases against them are completely without scientific merit.

Since publication of my May 27 article, seven more studies have demonstrated similar benefit. In a lengthy follow-up letter, also published by AJE, I discuss these seven studies and renew my call for the immediate early use of hydroxychloroquine in high-risk patients. These seven studies include: an additional 400 high-risk patients treated by Dr. Vladimir Zelenko, with zero deaths; four studies totaling almost 500 high-risk patients treated in nursing homes and clinics across the U.S., with no deaths; a controlled trial of more than 700 high-risk patients in Brazil, with significantly reduced risk of hospitalization and two deaths among 334 patients treated with hydroxychloroquine; and another study of 398 matched patients in France, also with significantly reduced hospitalization risk. Since my letter was published, even more doctors have reported to me their completely successful use.

My original article in the AJE is available free online, and I encourage readers—especially physicians, nurses, physician assistants and associates, and respiratory therapists—to search the title and read it. My follow-up letter is linked there to the original paper.

Beyond these studies of individual patients, we have seen what happens in large populations when these drugs are used. These have been “natural experiments.” In the northern Brazil state of Pará, COVID-19 deaths were increasing exponentially. On April 6, the public hospital network purchased 75,000 doses of azithromycin and 90,000 doses of hydroxychloroquine. Over the next few weeks, authorities began distributing these medications to infected individuals. Even though new cases continued to occur, on May 22 the death rate started to plummet and is now about one-eighth what it was at the peak.

A reverse natural experiment happened in Switzerland. On May 27, the Swiss national government banned outpatient use of hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19. Around June 10, COVID-19 deaths increased four-fold and remained elevated. On June 11, the Swiss government revoked the ban, and on June 23 the death rate reverted to what it had been beforehand. People who die from COVID-19 live about three to five weeks from the start of symptoms, which makes the evidence of a causal relation in these experiments strong. Both episodes suggest that a combination of hydroxychloroquine and its companion medications reduces mortality and should be immediately adopted as the new standard of care in high-risk patients.

Why has hydroxychloroquine been disregarded?

First, as all know, the medication has become highly politicized. For many, it is viewed as a marker of political identity, on both sides of the political spectrum. Nobody needs me to remind them that this is not how medicine should proceed. We must judge this medication strictly on the science. When doctors graduate from medical school, they formally promise to make the health and life of the patient their first consideration, without biases of race, religion, nationality, social standing—or political affiliation. Lives must come first.

Second, the drug has not been used properly in many studies. Hydroxychloroquine has shown major success when used early in high-risk people but, as one would expect for an antiviral, much less success when used late in the disease course. Even so, it has demonstrated significant benefit in large hospital studies in Michigan and New York City when started within the first 24 to 48 hours after admission.

In fact, as inexpensive, oral and widely available medications, and a nutritional supplement, the combination of hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin or doxycycline, and zinc are well-suited for early treatment in the outpatient setting. The combination should be prescribed in high-risk patients immediately upon clinical suspicion of COVID-19 disease, without waiting for results of testing. Delays in waiting before starting the medications can reduce their efficacy.

Third, concerns have been raised by the FDA and others about risks of cardiac arrhythmia, especially when hydroxychloroquine is given in combination with azithromycin. The FDA based its comments on data in its FDA Adverse Event Reporting System. This reporting system captured up to a thousand cases of arrhythmias attributed to hydroxychloroquine use. In fact, the number is likely higher than that, since the reporting system, which requires physicians or patients to initiate contact with the FDA, appreciably undercounts drug side effects.

But what the FDA did not announce is that these adverse events were generated from tens of millions of patient uses of hydroxychloroquine for long periods of time, often for the chronic treatment of lupus or rheumatoid arthritis. Even if the true rates of arrhythmia are ten-fold higher than those reported, the harms would be minuscule compared to the mortality occurring right now in inadequately treated high-risk COVID-19 patients. This fact is proven by an Oxford University study of more than 320,000 older patients taking both hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, who had arrhythmia excess death rates of less than 9/100,000 users, as I discuss in my May 27 paper cited above. A new paper in the American Journal of Medicine by established cardiologists around the world fully agrees with this.

In the future, I believe this misbegotten episode regarding hydroxychloroquine will be studied by sociologists of medicine as a classic example of how extra-scientific factors overrode clear-cut medical evidence. But for now, reality demands a clear, scientific eye on the evidence and where it points. For the sake of high-risk patients, for the sake of our parents and grandparents, for the sake of the unemployed, for our economy and for our polity, especially those disproportionally affected, we must start treating immediately.

*

Note to readers: please click the share buttons above or below. Forward this article to your email lists. Crosspost on your blog site, internet forums. etc.

Harvey A. Risch, MD, PhD, is professor of epidemiology at Yale School of Public Health.

END

Another chain visits the morgue: California Pizza Kitchen

Maze/Restaurant Business

 

California Pizza Kitchen Declares Bankruptcy

By Jonathan Maze of Restaurant Business,

California Pizza Kitchen (CPK), facing months of unpaid leases and with a dwindling amount of cash, declared bankruptcy on Thursday, seeking to cut back on its debt load and close unprofitable locations. The Playa Vista, Calif.-based chain, which operates about 200 locations, has more than $400 million in debt and is mostly owned by the private equity firm Golden Gate Capital along with members of the company’s management team.

The company had been seeking a possible sale since last year before the coronavirus hit. Once that happened, the company received a $30 million infusion of cash, which CEO Jim Hyatt in a bankruptcy court document called a “bridge to negotiate a comprehensive restructuring.”

Yet the company had just $13.5 million in cash on hand and four months of unpaid rent for “the majority of its locations.”

It also acknowledged receiving numerous default notices from landlords and faced lawsuits over unpaid rent.

The company has negotiated a deal with some of its lenders to provide $47 million of financing to get through the bankruptcy process. That would also shave $230 million from California Pizza Kitchen’s debt.

Not all of the company’s lenders support the deal, however. But Hyatt in his filing said CPK plans to use the time to reach a deal with remaining lenders and negotiate with its landlords “to rationalize” its footprint.

“No restaurateur in the world … has been unaffected by the COVID-19 pandemic,” Hyatt said in his filing. “For many restaurants, the COVID-19 pandemic will be the greatest challenge they will ever face.”

But it also says the coronavirus exacerbated its problems. The company said it has taken steps to adjust to consumer behavior, but that it also faced “a liquidity crunch” for the past two years.

The company was looking for potential buyers before the pandemic hit. “The COVID-19 pandemic severely interrupted the marketing process,” Hyatt said. He said sales were still down 40% during the last week of June, and that cash flow was negative $18.9 million between March and June, even as the company didn’t pay any rent or interest on its loans.

“Today’s announcement is a step towards a stronger future for California Pizza Kitchen,” Hyatt said in a statement. “This agreement from our lenders demonstrates their commitment to CPK’s viability as an ongoing business.”

end
Two Phillies staff tests positive for the Covid 19 forcing more MLB game cancellations

(zerohedge)

2 Phillies Staff Test Positive For COVID-19, Forcing More MLB Game Cancellations

MLB’s hopes to press ahead with its season following the Marlins outbreak may have just been dashed. As it turns out, the Marlins apparently spread the virus to at least two Phillies personnel, the team admitted Thursday. The infections were detected during Thursday’s round of tests, but both a coach and a staff member who were found to be infected had been tested Wednesday, and passed. Neither were experiencing symptoms as of Thursday.

The two cases forced the team to cancel all activity at Citizens Bank Park “until further notice,” which will likely lead to more game cancellations for the league.

As CNBC reported earlier, the outbreak at the MLB is a blow to companies within the sports world like the TV networks and media and advertising companies that depend on the games, along with the new gaming stocks that allow speculators to gamble on the games.

In another example of how doctors can come to two completely different conclusions based on the same body of evidence, Dr. David Ho, a world renowned infectious disease doctor, told CNBC’s Meg Tirrell that the prospect of sports succeeding without a bubble “are not good” – pointing to “what we are seeing with MLB” as an example. Dr. Ho, as it turns out, is an advisor to the NBA, which is using a bubble.

Others pointed out that the MLB has had a minuscule COVID-19 positivity rate in recent weeks. MLB conducted 42,000 tests with about .03% positive, if one sets aside the Marlins’ players.

Even though no players have been found to be positive, the Phillies were not going to play until Saturday at the earliest as they awaited test results. Now, a plannbed series against the Blue Jays has been postponed, according to Toronto manager Charlie Montoyo.

The last time the team played was Sunday, when they hosted the Marlins. Since then, 17 Marlins players and 2 coaches have tested positive for the virus, and the team has had to cancel a handful of games.

A Phillies series this week that was to be played against the Yankees was postponed out of caution.

Additionally, the news sent shares of DraftKings down more than 1.5%, extending a decline triggered by the first positive tests from the Marlins, as worries about the future of the 60 game season grow.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

He means Zinc, Azithromycin and Hydroxychloroquine

(Sara Carter)

Rep. Louie Gohmert: “I’ll Use Zinc, Erythromycin, & Hydroxychloroquine” To Fight COVID-19

Via SaraACarter.com,

“My doctor and I are all in,” Rep. Louie Gohmert, R-Texas, told “Hannity” Wednesday while on quarantine from having contacted coronavirus.

“And I got a text just before I came on from a dear friend, [a] doctor, who just found out he had it, and he said he started a HCQ [hydroxychloroquine] regimen, too.”

“So zinc, erythromycin, and hydroxychloroquine,” Gohmert added, “and that will start just in the next day or two.”

Gohmert explained that he found out he had coronavirus only when he was tested when he got invited to join President Trump on a trip to West Texas.

“He [Trump] called me from Air Force One on the way home tonight and I said … ‘Mr. President, if you would not [have] invited me to go with you to West Texas, I would never have known I had the coronavirus,’” Gohmert said.

“That’s what I got tested for it and then I found out I had it.”

Watch the full clip here:

full clip here:

end

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Mnuchin says GOP, Democrats ‘very far apart’ on coronavirus relief negotiations

Mnuchin said they are discussing a short-term extension of enhanced unemployment benefits and extending the federal moratorium on evictions before they expire at the end of the week…

    “So when Schumer and Pelosi can get together and take care of the people, we’ll do something. In the meantime, we want to stop evictions,” Trump said…

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/509542-mnuchin-says-gop-democrats-very-far-apart-on-coronavirus-relief

@realDonaldTrump: If Congress doesn’t bring fairness to Big Tech, which they should have done years ago, I will do it myself with Executive Orders. In Washington, it has been ALL TALK and NO ACTION for years, and the people of our Country are sick and tired of it!

Trump’s above tweet ended the Fang rally.  ESUs and stocks kept plodding higher, though, peaking about 35 minutes before the release of the FOMC Communiqué.  ESUs and stocks burst higher on the release of the communique at 14:00 ET.  The 5-handle ESU spurt marked the end of the communique play because there was nothing new or unexpected in the FOMC Communique.

The Bloomberg headlines regarding the FOMC Communique

  • Fed Holds Rate near Zero, Says Virus Poses Considerable Risks
  • Fed Extends Central bank Dollar Repo and Swap Line to March 31
  • Fed Repeats Will Use ‘Full Range’ of Tolls to Support Economy
  • Fed Repeats Will Increase Asset Holdings ‘at the Current Pace’
  • US Economy’s Path Depends on What Happens with Virus

FOMC Communique at link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200729a.htm

ESUs and stocks then went silent as traders awaited Powell’s Press Conference.  It was now up to Powell to appease tens of thousands of speculators.

Dec. gold rallied sharply on the release of the FOMC Communique, hitting a session high of 1984.40.  The dollar plunged to a session low at the same time.

Powell Press Conference key Bloomberg Headlines

  • Fed Aims to Ensure Strong Recovery, Limit Damage
  • Household Spending Has Recovered about Half of Drop
  • Business Fixed Investment Yet to Show Recovery
  • Fed Committed to Using Tools as Long as It Takes
  • Path Forward for Economy Is Extraordinarily Uncertain
  • Labor Market Has a Long Way to Recover
  • No One Has a Good Record Lately of Predicting Job Reports
  • Banks are Well Capitalized and Strong
  • Haven’t Looked at Equity Buying
  • Powell told reporters that he would read Claudia Sahm’s scathing post on diversity in economics.

    Economics is a disgrace by ex-Fed economist Claudia Sahm

    Burn it down: economics failed us.  Economics is a disgrace. The lack of diversity and inclusion degrades our knowledge and policy advice…Do you know how many Native American women are economist? Very few. Do you know how many Black economists work at the Fed? One out of 406. Economics is a disgrace…We discourage undergraduates, women and men from studying economics. The AEA’s first climate survey of economics clearly shows our toxic profession, especially among under-represented groups…Many graduate students and economists have mental health issuesPredators target research assistants, graduate students, and early-career economists

    http://macromomblog.com/2020/07/29/economics-is-a-disgrace/

    Boeing slashes aircraft production plans, warns on new job cuts as coronavirus devastates travel

    Boeing’s net loss narrowed to $2.40 billion, or $4.20 per share, from $2.94 billion, or $5.21 per share, a year earlier, when it posted a nearly $5 billion charge on its beleaguered 737 Max program…

       Wall Street expected, based on average analysts estimates compiled by Refinitiv: Losses per share: $4.79 a share, adjusted, vs $2.54 expected; Revenue: $11.8 billion vs $13.16 billion expected…  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/29/boeing-ba-reports-second-results-as-coronavirus-hurts-demand-for-new-planes.html

    Boeing said it sees a total of 19,000 jobs losses this year, an increase of 3,000 from its previous forecast.

    @ABC: Dr. Fauci to @DrJAshton: “If you have goggles or an eye shield, you should use it. It’s not universally recommended, but if you really want to be complete, you should probably use it if you can.”

    [Soon, it will be a hazmat suit!]

    @drawandstrike: What Fauci is doing is he’s **limiting** his comments to studies that were made of patients who were **already** at the “you’re about to die” stage of the virus, where mixed results were obtained.  If you get HCQ early, the results are NOT mixed.

    @kerpen: Mayo Clinic: “We find that polio, HIB, MMR, varicella, pneumococcal conjugate (PCV13), geriatric flu, HepA-HepB vaccines administered in the past 1, 2, and 5 years are associated with decreased SARS-CoV-2 infection rates”    https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.27.20161976v1.full.pdf

    WaPo: Who should get a coronavirus vaccine first?

    Experts weigh priority for health-care and essential workers and people of color.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/29/covid-vaccine-essential-workers-high-risk-populations/

    Dr. Fauci, Bill & Melinda Gates as well as all the top executives at the vaccine firm should get the 1st shots.  Then, the public can see if there are any harmful side effects.

    CBS News Poll Says 70% of Americans Would Wait To Get COVID-19 Vaccine, or Wouldn’t Get One At All     https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/07/27/dr-max-gomez-covid-19-vaccine-poll/

    @charliebilello: US National Debt as a % of GDP       US 30-Year Treasury Yield

    July 1985: 42%

    July 1990: 54%

    July 1995: 65%

    July 2000: 55%

    July 2005: 60%

    July 2010: 90%

    July 2015: 99%

    July 2020: 123%

    July 1985: 10.5%

    July 1990: 8.5%

    July 1995: 6.7%

    July 2000: 5.9%

    July 2005: 4.4%

    July 2010: 4.1%

    July 2015: 3.0%

    July 2020: 1.2%

  • @AP: U.S. defense officials will fulfill President Trump’s wish and pull roughly 12,000 troops out of Germany, bringing about 6,400 forces home and shifting 5,400 to other countries in Europe. The plan leaves about 25,000 troops in Germanyhttps://t.co/UTjZcOu7WN

    @ChloeSalsameda: Pres. Trump on pulling troops out of Germany: “Germany’s delinquentThey haven’t paid their fees; they haven’t paid their NATO fees… The US has been taken advantage of.”

    @realDonaldTrump: I am happy to inform all of the people living their Suburban Lifestyle Dream that you will no longer be bothered or financially hurt by having low income housing built in your neighborhood.  Your housing prices will go up based on the market, and crime will go down. I have rescinded the Obama-Biden AFFH Rule. Enjoy!

    Trump is now focusing on the burbs because he is trailing Biden badly with suburban women.  We have noted for months that suburban women will likely decide the 2020 Election.  Team Trump first has to discern if suburban women have blinding hatred for Trump or if they desire more socialism.  Then, Team Trump can decide on a strategy.  It appears that Team Trump’s strategy is to make suburban women fear Biden more than they hate Trump.

    A few top election analysts are now warning that the election, like most elections, comes down to turnout.

    The Zogby Poll®: Horse race between Trump and Biden is closer than appears; Everything hinges on big turnout among younger voters for Biden; Trump crushing it with swing voters

    https://zogbyanalytics.com/news/948-the-zogby-poll-horse-race-between-trump-and-biden-is-closer-than-appears-everything-hinges-on-big-turnout-among-younger-voters-for-biden-trump-crushing-it-with-swing-voters

    Romney lost in 2012 though most polls had him winning because millions of Republicans stayed home.  In July 2012, reports said Obama’s political guru told the ex-president that he would lose the election.  Obama asked what could be done.  Axelrod told him that they had to go negative on Romney and hope for the best.  Romney did not respond well and look weak at the debates.  GOP voters were not happy.

    Axios, which leans left: Focus group: Michigan swing voters question Biden’s ability to lead

    Some swing voters in Warren, Mich., question Joe Biden’s ability to lead the country — calling him a “puppet” who’s not “mentally capable of being president” — while admitting they haven’t paid much attention to his events, platforms or speeches… [This is why Team Biden is hiding Joe.]

        President Trump’s branding of Biden is defining him with these voters, particularly Trump’s insinuations about senility…Biden’s lower profile in mostly virtual events was proving no competition for Trump’s provocative attacks and national bully pulpit. Many of the voters couldn’t name a single achievement Biden has had in his life…

        Many of these voters prioritize the economy as their #1 issue in this election and continue to trust Trump on that issue, saying the economy was doing well before the pandemic…

    https://www.axios.com/focus-group-michigan-swing-voters-biden-789ca686-6910-464e-9126-450afa5a5882.html

    The Yeshiva World: HISTORIC: Hagaon HaRav Shmuel Kaminetzky Endorses President Trump; “It’s Worrisome” If Trump Loses” – The Gadol [most revered rabbi/ Yeshiva Dean] said, “You see the matzav, the anarchy… it’s frightening. G-d has become a dirty word in much of America, religion and religious institutions are their enemy – we need Rachamei Shamayim. If Trump doesn’t win in November, it’s worrisome.”…  https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/featured/1887934/historic-hagaon-harav-shmuel-kaminetzky-endorses-president-trump-its-worrisome-if-trump-loses.html

    @DonaldJTrumpJr: OMG they’re escorting Biden like a child to make sure he doesn’t stop and so he remembers where he’s supposed to go. This whole thing is a farce. Wake up America. How the heck could this guy run anything let alone America? [A troubling video of a handler leading Biden by the arm, away from reporters, a few months ago]   https://twitter.com/JFNYC1/status/1288478252194029570

    @SteveGuest: Joe Biden doesn’t know what year it is or how censuses work.  “You know, in the 2020 Census which is now 2 censuses ago, soon to be.” – Biden   https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1288539781161459720

    Some Biden allies wage a shadow campaign to stop Kamala Harris from becoming vice president

    Some remain bitter about her attacks on Biden during primary debates last year, saying they bring into question her loyalty to the former vice president. Others argue that she’s too ambitious and that she will be solely focused on becoming president herself…

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/29/biden-allies-move-to-stop-kamala-harris-from-becoming-vice-president.html

    Top Tribune columnist @John_Kass: My latest column: I will not apologize for writing about George Soros. I will not bow to those who’ve falsely and wrongly defamed me.  And I will not soil my name by groveling to anyone in this or any other newsroom.  The larger question is not about the left hoping to silence me, but about America and its young. Shaped by the thought police, they won’t see themselves as craven for bending the knee. Instead, they’ll see themselves as virtuous. That is the sin of it.

    John Kass: What happened to an America where you could freely speak your mind?

    Last week, with violence spiking around the country, I wrote a column on the growing sense of lawlessness in America’s urban areas.

         In response, the Tribune newspaper union, the Chicago Tribune Guild, which I have repeatedly and politely declined to join, wrote an open letter to management defaming me, by falsely accusing me of religious bigotry and fomenting conspiracy theories

         My July 22 column was titled “Something grows in the big cities run by Democrats: An overwhelming sense of lawlessness.”  It explored the connections between soft-on-crime prosecutors and increases in violence along with the political donations of left-wing billionaire George Soros

        As recently as February, the Sun Times pointed out roughly $2 million in Soros money flowing to Foxx in her primary election effort against more law-and-order candidates.  In August 2016, Politico outlined Soros’ money supporting local DA races and included the view from opponents and skeptics that if successful, these candidates would make communities “less safe.”…

        I will not apologize for writing about Soros.  I will not bow to those who’ve wrongly defamed me…

    https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/john-kass/ct-cancel-culture-kass-20200729-chokjsdvezbtbokgwy2bc76nty-story.html

     

    @JonathanTurley: We previously discussed the attack on Wisconsin state senator Tim Carpenter during recent protests. Now, two women have now been arrested in the attack. One turns out to be a teacher who works with kids with “social-emotional needs” and “behavioral issues.”

    https://jonathanturley.org/2020/07/29/state-senator/

     

    Democrats failed to make case in bizarre hearing with William Barr by Jonathan Turley

    Winston Churchill said that “the best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.” If only he had known the members of the House Judiciary Committee, he could have cut that time in half… Democrats seemed intent to not allow Barr to say anything in the hearing…

    https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/509527-democrats-failed-to-make-case-in-bizarre-hearing-with-william-barr

     

    We Are In The Process Of Completely Losing America

    At this point, freedom of speech is essentially dead on our major social media platforms, and because they have such a dominant position in our marketplace of ideas, that means that freedom of speech has been severely crippled in our society as a whole.  Freedom of religion is being greatly eroded as well.  States such as California continue to ban large church gatherings in order to help prevent the spread of COVID-19, but meanwhile they don’t have any problem with the large groups of protesters that are gathering night after night in our major cities to riot and commit acts of violence… 

        The way that Republicans and Democrats in Congress are responding to this crisis is also deeply un-American.  We are supposed to have a free market capitalist system, and when I was growing up the socialists were always regarded as enemies of our Republic.  But now there are very few politicians in Washington that are not socialists [Teddy ended laissez faire capitalism; FDR ended US capitalism.]

    http://themostimportantnews.com/archives/we-are-in-the-process-of-completely-losing-america

    Detroit Police Chief: We Kept Peace during Protests Because We Didn’t Cede Ground to Radicals, Had Community Support – Craig said, “One thing I learned from my time in Los Angeles, we don’t retreat here in Detroit. We’re just not going to do it. You saw the images, Tucker, of streets where there was lawlessness, looting, burning, no sight of police officers. We weren’t giving up ground to the radicals. We just didn’t do it.”…  https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2020/07/28/detroit-police-chief-we-kept-peace-during-protests-because-we-didnt-cede-ground-to-radicals-had-community-support

    Neil Bush’s Chinese Firm Signed Agreement with Space Contractor Considered an Arm of the Chinese Military – Bush has been an outspoken defender of Beijing’s policies, including to its controversial response to protesters in Hong Kong…  https://dailycaller.com/2020/07/28/neil-bush-china-agreement-space/

    Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” –

    Thomas Jefferson

Well that is all for today

I will see you FRIDAY night.

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