JAN 19/GOLD HAD A GREAT DAY UP $29.40 TO $1842.00//SILVER ALSO HAD A STELLAR DAY UP 71 CENTS TO $24.14//JANUARY GOLD HAD A HUGE 85,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP AND THUS NEW STANDING 17.9 TONNES// JAN SILVER OZ STANDING RISES TO14.435 MILLION OZ//COVID COMMENTARIES//VACCINE MANDATE UPDATES: LONDON STOPS MASK WEARING PLUS STOPS ALL COVID MANDATES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

JAN 19//

 

January 19, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment ·Edit

GOLD; UP $29.40 to $1842.00


SILVER: $24.14 UP 71 CENTS

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD: 1840.55.. 

SILVER: $24.15

Bitcoin:  morning price: 42,021 up 243

Bitcoin: afternoon price: 41,871 down 93

Platinum price: closing up $43.65 to $1030.35

Palladium price; closing up  $109.55  at $2012.45

END

end

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comex notices//JPMorgan  notices filed  COMEX//NOTICES FILED  12/1343

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,812.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/18/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 01/20/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


323 H HSBC 837
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1331
661 C JP MORGAN 500 12
905 C ADM 6


TOTAL: 1,343 1,343
MONTH TO DATE: 5,264

/


NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN. CONTRACT: 1343 NOTICE(S) FOR 134300 OZ  (4.17  TONNES)

total notices so far:  5264 contracts for 526,400 oz (16.373 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES:

118 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  590,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 2465  :  for 590,000  oz

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $29.40

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS): A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD.

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

CLOSING INVENTORY: 981.44 TONNES/

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 71 CENTS:/: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// STRANGE!!! A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.942 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//

AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY SLV/ TONIGHT: 525.804 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI  ROSE BY A GIGANTIC 3010 CONTRACTS TO 148,911  AND RESTS CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND SURPRISINGLY THIS GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPANIED WITH THE $0.51 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.51) AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT SOME SILVER LONGS  AS WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC GAIN OF 4,895 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES .

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A  GIGANTIC ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A HUGE INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 10.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 675,000 OZ QUEUE. JUMP//NEW STANDING 14.345 MILLION OZ         V)    GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI GAIN.

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  -174

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 12 days, total  contracts: :  8119 contracts or 40.595 million oz  OR 3.3382 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (676 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 8119 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 40.595 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 8 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

RESULT: WE HAD A  GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3010 WITH OUR  51 CENT GAIN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF  1885 CONTRACTS( 1885 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY:/ AS WELL AS TODAY /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN OF 10.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 675,000 QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 14.345, MILLION OZ//  .. WE HAD ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 4895 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 24.475 MILLION OZ//

WE HAD 118 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  590,000 OZ

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR 3,153 TO 539,204 AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -6283  CONTRACTS

.

THE FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR  LOSS IN PRICE OF $3.25//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY/.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR HUMONGOUS SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALLED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 17,731 CONTRACTS… 

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN AT 3.5614 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 85,900 OZ QUEUE. JUMP//NEW STANDING: 17.601 TONNES      

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  LOSS IN PRICE OF $3.25 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD  AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 24,014  OI CONTRACTS (74.69 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALLED A GIGANTIC SIZED  14,578 CONTRACTS:

FOR FEB 14,578  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 14,578 

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 545,487.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 17M731, WITH 3,153 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 14,578 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 24,014 CONTRACTS OR 74.69TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (14,578) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (3,153): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 17M731 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN. AT 3.7262 TONNES//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 85,900 OZ QUEUE. JUMP.//NEW STANDING 17.601 TONNES  3)ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,4)  STRONG SIZED COMEX OI. GAIN 5) HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

JAN

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN : 41,486 CONTRACTS OR 4,148,600 oz OR 129.03  TONNES (12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3457 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 129.03 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  129.03/3550 x 100% TONNES  3.63% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE 

JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           145.12 TONNES//INITIAL ISSUANCE// 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A  GIGANTIC SIZED 3010 CONTRACTS TO 148,737  AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  4 1/2 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 1885 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 1885  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1885 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 3010 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1885 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 4895 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 24.475 MILLION  OZ, 

OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.51 GAIN IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.73 PTS OR 0.33%      //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 15.03 PTS OR 0.06% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 790.02 PTS OR 2.80-%      //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.02%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.3468    /Oil UP TO 86.08 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 87.86 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN EXCEPT ITALY     //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP  AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3468. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3504: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN AND OFF SHORE TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR

A)NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 3153 CONTRACTS  AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS STRONG COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  LOSS OF $3.25 IN GOLD PRICING TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A POWERFUL EFP (14,578 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. LOOKS LIKE OUR BANKERS ARE FINALLY BAILING OUT

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GIGANTIC SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 14,578 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  DEC  :  0  & FEB. 14,578 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  14,578 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 17,731 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 14,573 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 3153  CONTRACTS..

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN   (14.93),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $3.25)

BUT THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A WHOPPING 55.15 TONNES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN (14.93 TONNES)…

WE HAD – 6283 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 17,731 CONTRACTS OR 1,773,100 OZ OR 55.15 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 185,216 /// poor

Confirmed volume yesterday: 485,006 contracts  strong

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JAN ’22 COMEX GOLD 

JAN 19

Gold
GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 20,737.395 ozMalca 645 kilobars                                                                                                                            
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznilOZ            
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz      nil                                                
No of oz served (contracts) today1343  notice(s)134,300 OZ4.1773 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)395 contracts  39,500 oz 1.2286 TONNES  
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month5264 notices 526400 OZ16.373 TONNES  
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

For today:

No dealer deposit 0

No dealer withdrawal 0

0 customer deposit

1 customer withdrawals

i) Out of Malca:  20,737,395 0z

(645 kilobars)

ADJUSTMENTS: 0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY.

For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 1738 stand for JANUARY GAINING 859 contracts.  We had 0 notices filed on TUESDAY, so we GAINED 859 contracts or an additional 85,900 oz will stand for

gold in this very non active delivery month of January. The resulting queue jump equates to 2.672 tonnes, 

FEBRUARY LOST 47,114 CONTRACTS TO 185,969

March LOST  17 contracts to stand at 2317..

We had 1343 notice(s) filed today for 134,300  oz FOR THE JAN 2022 CONTRACT MONTH


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1343  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and  12 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0  notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5264) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JAN: 1738 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  1343 x 100 oz per contract equals 565,900 OZ  OR 17.601 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of JAN. (numbers corrected from yesterday) 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month:

No of notices filed so far (5264) x 100 oz+   (1738)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1343} x 100 oz} which equals 565,900 oz standing OR 17.601 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of JAN. 

We GAINED A HUGE 859 contracts or an additional  85,900 oz of gold will stand for metal on this side of the pond.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  17.601 TONNES  (HUGE FOR A JANUARY DELIVERY MONTH

IF THIS HOLDS TO THE END OF THE MONTH, THIS WILL BE THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED GOLD STANDING FOR A JANUARY, GENERALLY A VERY POOR DELIVERY MONTH.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

206,468.649, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  6.42 TONNES

174,041.813 PLEDGED  MANFRA 5.41 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690

288,481,604, oz  JPM No 2  8.97 TONNES

698,821.330 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/27,96 TONNES

12,244.444 oz International Delaware:  0..3808 tonne

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold:  1,653,017.372oz                                     51.42 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIZ GOLD AT THE COMEX: 33,561,098.772 OZ (1043.89 TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,980,558.253 OZ (497.06 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,580,540.519 OZ  (546.82 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,927,523.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  495.41 tonnes

END

JANUARY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//JAN 19

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,202,510.800  oz BrinksCNTDelaware                                                                                                                       
Deposits to the Dealer InventorynilOZ                   
Deposits to the Customer Inventory2,213,232.567  ozBrinksDelawareJPMorganMalca                                                                                   
No of oz served today (contracts)118 CONTRACT(S)590,000  OZ) 
No of oz to be served (notices)404 contracts (2,020,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)2465 contracts 12,325,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposits into the dealer

total dealer deposits:  nil       oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 4 deposits

i)Into Brinks: 1,182,987.027 oz

ii) Into Delaware; 172,670.410 oz

iii) Into JPmorgan: 577,997.500 oz

iv) Into Malca; 279,577.630 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 185.500 million oz/354.142 million =52.38% of comex 

ii) Comex withdrawals: 3

a) Out of CNT 925,629.560 oz

b) Out of Delaware; 175,637.090 oz

c) Out of Brinks 101,248.170 oz

total withdrawal 1,202,510,800 oz

we had 0 adjustment

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 81.163 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 354.142 MILLION OZ

TOTAL NO OF CONTRACTS SERVED UPON THIS MONTH: 2347 CONTRACTS FOR 11,735,000 OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JANUARY

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY: 118 NOTICES OR 590,000 OZ

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JAN//2022 OI: 522 CONTRACTS GAINING 131 contracts on the day

We had 11 notices filed for TUESDAY so we GAINED 135 contracts or 675,000 additional oz will  stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of January.

FOR FEB WE HAD A LOSS OF 22 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 670

FOR MARCH WE HAD A GAIN OF 2695 CONTRACTS UP TO 115,268 CONTRACTS.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 11 for 55,000 oz

Comex volumes: 30,762// est. volume today//poor

Comex volume: confirmed YESTERDAY: 108,632 contracts (strong)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  2465 x 5,000 oz =. 12,325,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN (522) and the number of notices served upon today 118 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JAN./2021 contract month: 2465 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN (522)  – number of notices served upon today (118) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month equates 14,345,000 oz. .

We GAINED 135 contracts or an additional 675,000

 oz will stand for delivery on this side of the pond.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

GLD

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 14/ WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $8.65//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $19.25/A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.08 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $8.15//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWLA OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 978.83 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $35.30//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.99 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $10.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.31 TONNES

Jan 4/WITH GOLD UP $14.00//A HUGE CHANGE OF 4.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.31 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $14.05 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES

DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $7.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES

DEC 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.63 TONNES 

DEC 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.63 TONNES.

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $9.85 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.94 TONNES FROM THE GLD/// INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.63 TONNES

DEC 22/WITH GOLD UP $12.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 978.57 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.05 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 978.57 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.65 TODAY; A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.37 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.20 TONNES

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $7.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.20 TONNES

DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $33.05TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.4 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT: 977.20 TONNES

DEC15/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.80 TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.60 TONNES.

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

DEC 10.WITH GOLD UP $7.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

DEC 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64.

DEC 8/WITH GOLD UP $5.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

DEC 7/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 TODAY; A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

DEC 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 986.17 TONNES//

CLOSING INVENTORY: 976.21 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

SLV.

JAN 19/WITH SILVER UP 71 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 527.246 MILLION OZ

JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 WITHDRAWALS OF 1.11 MILLION OZ AND 1.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 527.246 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.780 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 832,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.780 MILLION OZ

JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//

JAN 11/WITH SILVER  UP 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ/.

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//.

JAN 7/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//.

JAN 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL PF 226,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ?/

JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.838 MILLION OZ//

JAN 4/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.838 MILLION OZ//

JAN 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.219 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.838 MILLION OZ//

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.057 MILLION OZ//

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.057 MILLION OZ//

DEC30/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.624 MILLILON OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.057 MILLION OZ//

DEC 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681 MILLION OZ/

DEC 28/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.682 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681 MILLION OZ//

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.202 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681 MILLION OZ//

DEC 22/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.202 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 538.883 MILLION OZ/

DEC 21/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.728 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.085 MILLION OZ

DEC 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 538.282 MILLION OZ

DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 538.282 MILLION OZ//

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 91 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.33 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 538.282 MILLION OZ

DEC  15WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.48 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.612 MILLION OZ

DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.092 MILLION OZ

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.561 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.092 MILLION OZ//

DEC 10.WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.653 MILLION OZ..

DEC 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.653 MILLION OZ/

DEC 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.693 MILLION OZ///

DEC 7/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.693 MILLION OZ..

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.110 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.693 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: This Bubble Economy Is Going To Burst

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 19, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Peter Schiff recently appeared on the Rob Schmidt Show on Newsmax to talk about the trajectory of the US economy. Peter explains how the Federal Reserve and the US government created a massive bubble, why it is going to ultimately pop, and how to protect your savings and investments when it does.

The First question Rob asked was how is the Federal Reserve going to fix the inflation problem?

Simply put, it’s not. The Fed will make it worse.

Peter said in the first place, the Fed is lying about the extent of the problem. The CPI doesn’t measure the rise in prices accurately.

If we just use the same CPI that we used during the 70s and 80s, and applied the numbers today, we would get about 15 percent inflation for 2021. So, last year was worse than any year of the 1970s, and it was worse than 1980 when CPI was up 13.5 percent. So, this is the worst inflation we’ve ever seen.”

Peter said, unfortunately, it’s going to get even worse.

We have just seen the tip of an inflationary iceberg.”

How did we get into this mess to begin with?

The Fed created the problem.

They’ve been printing all this money. They sent the printing presses into overdrive during the pandemic. But we had an even bigger problem. The government forced people to stop working during the pandemic. So, people weren’t on the job. They weren’t producing goods. They weren’t supplying services. They should have spent less money because they weren’t earning money. The government made the mistake of sending everybody stimulus money so they could go out and spend money to buy products that didn’t even exist because they weren’t created. That’s why we have a supply shortage — because everybody is spending money that the Fed printed, not money that they earned producing goods and providing services. So, it’s a double-whammy. Prices are going ballistic. And this year is going to be worse than last.”

The Fed has said it plans to raise rates, possibly to 2 percent by 2022. Rob said that doesn’t seem substantial. Peter likened it to spitting in the ocean.

Inflation is already 7 percent, even if you accept the government’s numbers, which are a lie. How do you fight 7 percent inflation with 2 percent interest rates? Remember, the Fed had interest rates at 2.5 percent in 2018 when they had no inflation to fight. CPI was only up 1.9 percent in 2018. Yet, the Fed is not going to raise interest rates now to a level they were back then. So, the whole thing is a lie. The truth is if the Fed actually raised interest rates high enough to fight inflation, it would crush the economy. We’d have a worse financial crisis than 2008. The stock market would crash –bond market, real estate market. Government would have to slash spending because interest rates would skyrocket. And so to prevent that from happening, the Fed is going to not fight inflation and that’s why it’s going to get so much worse.”

But the economy seems healthy. That is until you look beneath the surface. We have record trade deficits. The government is running massive budget deficits.

We’re living in a gigantic bubble, and now we’re beginning to see that because prices are really starting to rise and there’s no way to stop them from going up. And this is when everything comes collapsing down. Because eventually, this stagflationary environment that we’re in, which will be much worse than the 1970s – more inflation and a weaker economy – is going to prick that bubble. So, even if the Fed won’t prick it, the markets are going to prick it for them.”

With inflation so pervasive, Peter said anybody who is retired or who wants to retire needs to get out of dollars.

Inflation is going to wipe you out. It is a gigantic tax and it’s going to impoverish an entire generation unless they act quickly to get into real assets. … You have to own real things that can’t be printed because if you just own paper, you’re going to get wiped out.”

2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,James  RICKARDS

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Craig Hemke writes about the spreaders that which I have been detailing for over 2 years.

(CraigHemke)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Another mechanism for rigging Comex gold futures prices?

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-01-18 12:01 Section: Daily Dispatches

11:57a ET Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Writing at Sprott Money today, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke suggests that increases in “trade at settlement” trades in Comex gold futures signify another mechanism by which bullion banks conceal their trading the better to manipulate prices.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Comex Gold Trade at Settlement” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/COMEX-Gold-Trade-at-Settlement-Craig-Hemke-January-18-2021

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Will all 50 states and for that matter, the rest of the world remove all taxes on gold and silver…..the true money.

Will this be the year of sound money in the U.S.?

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-01-18 21:32 Section: Daily Dispatches

By JP Cortez
Money Metals News Service, Eagle, Idaho
Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Last year was a good year for state-level sound-money legislation across the United States, and 2022 could be even better.

To date, 42 states have removed some or all taxes from the purchase of gold and silver. And there are new bills pending in five of the eight remaining states — Tennessee, Mississippi, Kentucky, Hawaii, and New Jersey.

Taxing the exchange of Federal Reserve notes for the monetary metals is an atrocious policy, for several reasons. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2022/01/18/the-year-of-sound-money-002454

Building on the success enjoyed by sound-money advocates in Arkansas and Ohio last year, more than a half dozen states are now considering legislation that rolls back discriminatory taxes and regulations on the sale, use, and purchase of gold and silver.

END

4.OTHER GOLD STORIES

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES/

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

Latest on BTC

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11:00 PM (1 minute ago)
to Chris, me

Mostly a continuation of the previous article:
https://novusconfidential.wordpress.com/2022/01/19/iceland-kazakh-crypto-the-greater-malaise-for-bitcoin/
Corrections, constructive criticism, feedback, always appreciated.
The eight Fed use cases listed were inspired by the late great Andy Gause,his writing, his radio show discussions, as well as my own research.To some extent the Fed $ use case list leaves out the eurodollar, which has always bugged me.
The loss of Mr Gause was of course a major blow to Monetary Realism, and to all of us.
I’ve tried to (very imperfectly) write about much of what Mr Gause taught us, regarding the monetary system. 

Back to the article, I hoped to highlight that the reverse repo situation is only one *indicator*of what’s happening with tapering, not a hard link to the recent decline in crypto. 

Regards, Steve

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 6.3468

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3504

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 15.07 PTS OR 0.06%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 790.02 PTS OR 2.80%

3. Europe stocks  ALL GREEN EXCEPT ITALY   

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  95.61/Euro RISES TO 1.1339-

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.137/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 114.47/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 86.08 and Brent: 87.86-

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP//  OFF- SHORE  UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -+.0.002%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 1.34% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 0.68%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.34: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.65

3k Gold at $1819.80 silver at: 23.76   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; Russian rouble UP 27/100 in roubles/dollar AT 76.06

3m oil into the 86 dollar handle for WTI and 87 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 114.47 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9160– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0387 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.881 UP 1 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.189 UP 0 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 13.59

Futures Rebound Strongly From Overnight Rout As Yields Stabilize

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 19, 2022 – 07:34 AM

After what earlier looked like another assured overnight rout, especially after 10Y yields hit 1.90% and Brent rose as high as $89/bbl, US equity futures reversed earlier losses to trade higher as earnings optimism outweighed concerns over soaring bond yields and a 50bps March rate hike.  As of 7:00am ET, emini S&P futures were up 14 points ot 0.3% to 4,585, Nasdaq futures were up 65 points or 0.44% and Dow futures were also in the green by 89 points or 0.25%. The dollar slumped after several days of sharp gains, the 10Y yield traded at 1.8826%, down from the session’s highest levels, and Brent was at $88.23.

The prospect of accelerated policy tightening as well as concerns over the omicron variant and inflation hurting companies’ profits have whipsawed equities this year.  The surge in Treasury yields has fueled a rotation out of expensive technology and growth shares and into cheaper parts of the market. Meanwhile, the 10Y yield has continued its aggressive push higher overnight, and hit a fresh 2 year high, rising just above 1.90% for the first time since Jan 2020, before retracing some of the move. Britain’s inflation rate surged unexpectedly to the highest since 1992 and Germany’s 10-year yield turned positive for the first time since 2019.

The surge in yields has routed high duration tech names – the Nasdaq 100 plunged 2.6% yesterday to the lowest level since mid-October.  “The 2-year Treasury has moved too aggressively in pricing in Fed tightening, in our view, and we expect the yield curve to steepen,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “This steepening should further improve the positive backdrop for financial services companies,” he said. 

SoFi Technologies, the financial firm led by former Twitter executive Anthony Noto, extended its gains in U.S. premarket session after the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency granted it a U.S. banking charter. 

“We are in late stage of the cycle, where equities will post lower returns due to weaker growth and higher rates, but we expect the ongoing correction to be short,” Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management, said by email. He’s forecasting the S&P 500 index and U.S. 10-year yields at 2% by the end of the year.

Most European equities are in the green, recovering after a soggy start. Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.5%, rallying ~1% from opening levels. Consumer products and services and retail names are the best performers after Richemont and Burberry Group Plc beat expectations; utilities and insurance names are the weakest. Shares in Switzerland’s Richemont are leading the STOXX 600 and up a whopping 7% after the world’s second-largest luxury group reported string demand for jewellery and watches.That had a positive effect across the sector and France’s heavyweights, LVMH, Kering and Hermes are up and lifting the Paris CAC 40 benchmark above the floatation mark.The UK’s Burberry is another strong performer, rising close to 5% as the luxury brand said annual profit would beat market expectations. The retail sector was also on a roll, rising over 2% with Spain’s Inditex leading the pack after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock due to resilient earnings and cashflow. Marks & Spencer, Zalando and Kingfisher were all rising over 2%.

Earlier in the session, risk aversion deepened in stock markets across Asia on Wednesday as bond yields remained elevated, with investors trying to gauge the timing and scope of the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest-rate hikes. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1.5%, heading for a five-day slump, as tech and consumer-discretionary stocks furthered recent declines. Sony Group and Toyota Motor were among the biggest drags on the gauge. Energy shares climbed, even as the oil rally eased in Asia. Quantitative tightening may exert capital-outflows pressure on Asia, “which may theoretically lead to compression in asset valuations,” Nomura strategists including Chetan Seth wrote in a note. Given that valuations are currently modest, Asian stocks will not face as significant a de-rating as they did when the Fed tightened in 2017-2018, they added. Higher yields have damped investor appetite for global equities, particularly hitting richly valued tech shares. Asian firms are also weighed down by concerns over China’s economy. Still, the yield spike isn’t all bad for stocks, as “the sum total of expected rate hikes remains low,” BlackRock Investment Institute strategists wrote in a note. Japan’s stock benchmarks were the worst performers in Asia on Wednesday, with the Topix a whisker away from technical correction as Tokyo and other parts of the nation prepare to come under a state of quasi-emergency for three weeks starting Friday. Hong Kong-listed tech stocks capitulated ahead of a Reuters report in the late afternoon about China slapping new curbs on investment deals for the industry’s largest firms. Equity losses were relatively limited in mainland China, where the central bank pledged to use more monetary-policy tools.

Japanese equities fell and the yen strengthened amid extended global risk-off trading on concerns over expected Federal Reserve monetary tightening. Electronics and auto makers were the biggest drags on the Topix, which was down 3% as of 2:37 p.m. in Tokyo, with all 33 industry groups in the red. Tokyo Electron Ltd was the largest contributor to a 3% loss in the Nikkei 225 Stock Average. Sony Group Corp. dropped more than 12% after rival Microsoft Corp. announced it will acquire Activision Blizzard Inc. The Japanese currency gained 0.3% against the dollar. After initial enthusiasm following the Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain policy, Japanese stocks swung to a loss Tuesday amid regional concerns after U.S. Treasury yields spiked. U.S. stocks dropped overnight as speculation grew that central banks will have to boost interest rates sooner than earlier anticipated. “There’s market jitters over the possibility of a U.S. rate hike taking place earlier than March,” said Mitsushige Akino, a senior executive officer at Ichiyoshi Asset Management Co. “The level of market uncertainty is high and share price swings are likely to continue into March, until there’s clarity on the Fed’s monetary policy steps.” Meanwhile, the greater Tokyo region and other parts of Japan are set to come under a state of quasi-emergency for three weeks starting Friday as the government tries to rein in a surge in Covid-19. Tokyo will seek to have bars and restaurants close early, national broadcaster NHK said.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1% to 7,332.50, closing at its lowest level since Dec. 20. Global stocks dropped as Treasury yields soared on bets that central banks will have to boost interest rates earlier than expected. Yields in Australia and New Zealand also climbed. READ: Kiwi Dollar, Yields Jump on ANZ Rate View: Inside Australia/NZ Megaport was the worst performer on Australia’s benchmark after it reported 2Q sales results. Harvey Norman was among the top performers after it was upgraded at Credit Suisse. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 1.6% to 12,612.31, marking its worst session in almost a year

In rates, Treasury yields remained cheaper on the day despite futures rebounding sharply from session lows. Yields higher by 1bp-2bp across the curve and most spreads within a basis point of Tuesday’s close; 10-year 1.885% after topping 1.90% for first time since January 2020, while in Europe, bund yields climbed above zero for the first time since before the pandemic. Treasury coupon sales resume with $20b 20-year bond reopening. $20b 20-year bond reopening at 1pm ET follows small tails for last week’s 10- and 30-year auctions; a $16b 10-year TIPS new issue is slated for Thursday. German 2s10s steepen ~2bps with 10y bund yields turning slightly positive. Gilts bear-flatten, cheapening as much as 8bps across the curve after a hot inflation print; OIS rates price ~24bps of tightening for the Feb. BOE meeting. Cash USTs bear-flatten slightly.

In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot drops 0.25%, slightly extending Asia’s weakness, and the dollar was steady-to-weaker against all of its Group-of-10 peers. The Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar rallied as oil prices continued to rise while New Zealand’s dollar gained and the nation’s short-end yields climbed after ANZ economists said they now expect the RBNZ’s official cash rate to peak at 3% by April 2023, up from a prior projection of 2% in 2H 2022. The pound inched up amid broad dollar weakening while the yield on 10-year Gilts soared through 1.30% following a report showing that Britain’s inflation rate surged unexpectedly to the highest since 1992. The euro inched up following yesterday’s deep loss versus the dollar; the rate on 10-year Bunds rose four basis points to 0.02%, crossing above zero for the first time since May 2019. The yen pared an advance as European stocks rebounded from opening losses. Commodity currencies lead broad gains against the dollar in G-10. ZAR leads in EMFX after Dec. inflation data nears the top of SARB’s target range.

In commodities, crude futures drift back up toward session highs after an early dip. WTI is up over 1% after finding support near $86, Brent regains $88. Spot gold pushes slightly higher, adding $3 near $1,817/oz. LME copper outperforms in a broadly positive base metals complex; tin lags. 

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the UK and Canada’s CPI reading for December, along with US housing start and building permits for December. Central bank speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, Deputy Governor Cunliffe and the ECB’s Holzmann. Finally, earnings releases include UnitedHealth Group, Bank of America, Procter & Gamble, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, US Bancorp and United Airlines.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 4,565.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 479.76
  • MXAP down 1.3% to 191.05
  • MXAPJ down 0.5% to 628.97
  • Nikkei down 2.8% to 27,467.23
  • Topix down 3.0% to 1,919.72
  • Hang Seng Index little changed at 24,127.85
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,558.18
  • Sensex down 1.0% to 60,142.26
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.0% to 7,332.50
  • Kospi down 0.8% to 2,842.28
  • Brent Futures up 1.1% to $88.45/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,817.04
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.13% to 95.61
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.01%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1343
  • Brent Futures up 1.1% to $88.44/bbl

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • China’s central bank pledged to use more monetary policy tools to spur the economy and drive credit expansion, sending its clearest signal yet of an easing bias to boost market confidence
  • The European Central Bank’s inflation forecasts aren’t a “blind certitude” and the institution will take action if the price surge proves more persistent, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said
  • A group of rookie Tory MPs gathered on Tuesday to discuss whether there was any appetite to move together against the prime minister, several lawmakers said
  • Oil held gains above the highest close since 2014 as the International Energy Agency said the market looked tighter than previously thought, with demand proving resilient to omicron. Some in the market now think it’s now a question of when — not if — oil hits triple digits
  • The Cyberspace Administration of China is drafting new guidelines that will require any company with more than 100 million users or over 10 billion yuan ($1.6 billion) in revenue to seek the watchdog’s approval before such deals, Reuters reported. Any internet firm in sectors named on a “negative list” issued last year will also require approval, the news agency said

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

Asian stocks followed suit to the losses on Wall St where all major indices declined led by tech and growth as US yields climbed to two-year highs and with financials also hit following earning releases in which Goldman Sachs and Charles Schwab both missed on their bottom lines. ASX 200 (-1.0%) traded lower in which tech mirrored the underperformance of the sector stateside as Nasdaq 100 futures dipped into correction territory after shedding 10% from its November peak and with BHP failing to benefit from an increase in its quarterly iron ore and petroleum output as the mining giant also reported a decline in coal production and warned of short-term disruptions from next month’s proposed easing of Western Australia border restrictions. However, the energy sector was buoyed by continued advances in oil prices due to the geopolitical risk premium and after an explosion in Turkey forced the shutdown of the Iraq-Turkey crude oil pipeline which is Iraq’s largest crude oil export line. Nikkei 225 (-2.8%) was heavily pressured by recent currency strength and with Japan set for tighter COVID-19 restrictions in key areas including Tokyo, while Toyota and Sony were the notable laggards after the automaker flagged a miss to its output targets due to chip shortages and with Sony impacted by news that rival Microsoft is to acquire video game publisher Activision. Hang Seng (U/C) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.4%) were choppy and initially fared better than their regional peers after the PBoC continued with its liquidity efforts and recently hinted of more easing, but with upside restricted amid reports of further scrutiny by the US on Chinese businesses including an examination into Alibaba’s cloud unit to determine if it poses a risk to US national security. Finally, 10yr JGBs were kept afloat amid the broad risk aversion in Tokyo although gains in JGBs were gradual as T-note futures remained pressured by a further rise in yields and following slightly weaker demand at the enhanced liquidity auction for 2yr-20yr JGBs.

Top Asian News

  • Sunac China Dollar Bonds’ Record Surge Approaches 20 Cents
  • Hamsters, Wings, Shrimp Ensnared by China’s Covid Zero Zeal
  • China’s Sinopec Floods LNG Spot Market with Cargoes for 2022
  • Tokyo to Press Bars to Close Early as Covid Cases Hit Record

Major bourses in Europe are now mostly in positive territory (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%; Stoxx 600 +0.3%) as the region recovered from the losses seen at the cash open – which saw the Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX 40 open lower by 0.5% and 0.8% respectively. US equity futures have also nursed earlier losses and now reside in positive territory, with the NQ recuperating from losses of over 1.0% at one stage as the US 10yr cash yield eclipsed 1.90% and the German 10yr yield turned positive for the first time in over three years. Back to cash equities, the CAC (+0.6%) and IBEX (+0.6%) outperform amid their large retail exposure, with the sector bolstered after stellar updates from Richemont (+9.1%) and Burberry (+6.0%) coupled with a broker upgrade for Inditex (+3.5%) at Goldman Sachs; in turn lifting the likes of LVMH (+3.0%) and Kering (+3.3%). Delving deeper into the sectors, the earlier defensive bias has evolved into a more cyclical one, with Basic Resources, Travel & Leisure and Retail at the top of the bunch, whilst Healthcare and Food & Beverages make their way down the ranks. Tech has recovered from its earlier yield-induced underperformance with the aid of a post-earnings ASML (+1.1%) which missed on net sales expectations, but the group announced a 100% Y/Y increase in its dividend, whilst the CEO suggests their production capacity cannot accommodate higher demand. For reference, ASML accounts for around 7.5% of the Euro Stoxx 50. In terms of other individual movers, Leoni (-14.0%) slumped as Co. sites were searched by the German Federal Cartel Office as part of an investigation into various cable manufacturers and other industry-related companies.

Top European News

  • Richemont, Burberry Signal That Luxury Market Is Thriving
  • Airbus Gears Up for Growth With Plans to Add 6,000 New Staff
  • 5G Rollout Disrupts Flights Into U.S. From Across the World
  • Hamsters, Wings, Shrimp Ensnared by China’s Covid Zero Zeal

In FX, sterling remains somewhat caught between stalls after stronger than forecast UK CPI readings that add more weight to expectations and pricing for further BoE policy normalisation, but cautious about carrying too much rate hike premium given the growing prospect of change at the highest level in Government and the rising rebellion against Tory Party leader Boris Johnson. Hence, the post-data pop above 1.3600 in Cable was relatively limited and short-lived, while Eur/Gbp only dipped marginally within a tight 0.8342-23 range before stabilising. However, the Pound is holding off Tuesday’s lows vs the Dollar by virtue of the fact that the Greenback has faded generally and topped a key Fib retracement level at 1.3610 as the index slips back a bit further towards 95.500 having reached 95.832 at best yesterday and consolidating between 95.792-549 ahead of US housing data and the 20 year auction.

  • NZD/AUD – In contrast to Sterling, the Kiwi has no political inhibitions on the domestic front inhibitions and is outperforming amidst hawkish RBNZ calls from ANZ Bank, as Nzd/Usd bounces from overnight lows towards the psychological 0.6800 mark and the Aud/Nzd cross retreats through 1.0600 again. To recap, ANZ expects a 25 bp hike at every meeting from February to April 2023 that would push the OCR up to 3% from the current 75 bp. Meanwhile, the Aussie is lagging in wake of a fall in Westpac consumer sentiment and in advance of more pivotal jobs data tomorrow, albeit with Aud/Usd also off worst levels within a 0.7177-0.7214 band following a strong rise in iron ore prices.
  • CAD/CHF/EUR/JPY – All recouping some lost ground against the Buck, and the Loonie still getting a lift from crude as WTI extends its heady rise to probe Usd 87/brl, while the Franc is approaching 0.9150 from sub-0.9175 and remains above 1.0400 vs the Euro even though Eur/Usd has regained enough poise to retest offers/resistance into 1.1350, including the 21 DMA that comes in at 1.1347 today (and incidentally matches Tuesday’s 55 DMA). Elsewhere, the Yen is rather betwixt and between on respective UST/JGB yield and broad risk grounds, as Usd/Jpy pivots 114.50 before Japanese inflation on Thursday. Back to Usd/Cad, Canadian CPI looms and could either compound BoC tightening perceptions or undermine, while the near term technical backdrop is basically flanked by resistance around 1.2550 and support circa 1.2450 beyond the current 1.2525-1.2472 bounds.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures remain elevated following an initial blip lower in early European hours – which at the time emanated from reports that the Iraq-Turkey pipeline will resume oil flows after an explosion yesterday – said to have been an accident as opposed to an attack, which had been feared. The explosion was the cited driver behind yesterday’s rise in crude, with WTI Feb reaching a USD 86.41/bbl high and Brent March a peak of USD 89.05/bbl before waning off best levels. Nonetheless, prices see tailwinds in European trade as equities recovered off lows and following the IEA Monthly Oil Market report which raised its global demand growth forecast and suggested Omicron has had less of an impact than initially expected. Furthermore, the report suggested that OPEC+ effective spare capacity will be just 2.6mln BPD in H2-2022, “held primarily by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.” Saudi Arabia has usually kept more than 1.5-2mln BPD of spare capacity on hand for market management, according to the EIA. Elsewhere, spot gold has been driving higher as the Dollar remains near lows, with the yellow metal finding some support around USD 1,810/oz. LME copper meanwhile is on the front-foot and prices have extended on their APAC gains as stocks trim earlier losses, whilst mining giant Antofagasta sees the demand picture for the red metal continuing. Elsewhere, Indonesia has not issued any export permits for tin for 2022, according to a commodity exchange official.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: Jan. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 1.4%
  • 8:30am: Dec. Building Permits MoM, est. -0.8%, prior 3.6%, revised 3.9%
  • 8:30am: Dec. Housing Starts MoM, est. -1.7%, prior 11.8%
  • 8:30am: Dec. Building Permits, est. 1.7m, prior 1.71m, revised 1.72m
  • 8:30am: Dec. Housing Starts, est. 1.65m, prior 1.68m

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday we published our latest global monthly survey. It was a more bearish survey than last month, with the majority of respondents reacting more negatively on bonds and equities than they did in December. Higher-than-expected inflation remains the biggest risk, with Fed policy alongside this. Covid-related risks again dropped out of the top three after re-entering last month with Omicron. Respondents thought the policy risk was towards the Fed being too hawkish, while the risk from the ECB was towards the top dovish direction. An overwhelming majority think the next 25bp move in 10yr Treasuries is higher, with the average respondent edging up their year-end yield target for both Treasuries and Bunds. The average expected S&P 500 return also dropped more than a percent point to around 3% for 2022. The bearish tilt to this month’s survey ended with the latest US recession forecasts. 73% of respondents thinking the next US recession will hit by 2024, up from 63% last month. See the full report here

I appreciate the average reader doesn’t want to hear about my latest injuries but part of the payback for being subscribed is you have to partly act as my therapist. Yesterday I got the results of my latest knee scan. A chunk has come off my knee cartilage leaving a pothole. I ironically did this whilst doing gentle squats and lunges whilst rehabbing my other knee after surgery in December. My surgeon has suggested more microfracture which will be another 6 weeks on crutches and no weight bearing. It was giving way around once a day over Xmas but has calmed down a bit and is just stiff now, indicating that the broken piece has been absorbed leaving just the hole. My dilemma is whether to just get it done asap and move on or wait until towards the end of the year. The risk being that the “pothole” will likely get bigger. All advice from those having gone through this gratefully received. Meanwhile I think I have sciatica in my back as I’m experiencing searing nerve pain in my hip that is starting to go down my leg. The latest scan results when they come in might help identify the problem that my consultant can’t exactly pinpoint. I’m not sure what’s more likely, Tiger Woods playing at the Masters in April or me in the monthly medal at my club this weekend.

Sovereign bonds and equities landed deep in the rough yesterday, as the hawkish drumbeat in markets grew louder, with investors increasingly pricing in tighter monetary policy over the coming months. In fact, a number of fresh milestones were reached over the last 24 hours alone, and a notable one was that Fed funds futures are now pricing in at least 4 full hikes in 2022 for the first time. For reference, it’s been little more than a month since the FOMC released their dot plot in December, and back then just 2 of the 18 members signalled they were in favour of 4 hikes this year, with all the others expecting 3 or less.

While the Fed is naturally gaining the most attention, this hawkish pivot is being echoed right across the advanced economies, with imminent hikes expected in multiple countries. Looking at overnight index swaps, they’re currently pricing a +92% chance of a hike at the BoE’s next meeting in early February, an 82% chance of one at the Bank of Canada’s meeting next week, and are fully pricing in one at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s next meeting as well. The UK CPI just after we go to press will be the next central bank hiking pricing hurdle.

As markets moved to price in more and more tightening, US Treasuries sold off as they caught up following the previous day’s holiday, and the 10yr yield followed up 4 consecutive weekly gains by rising another +8.9bps to a 2-year high of 1.87%. Front-end yields also moved higher, with the 2yr yield up +7.6bps to close above 1% for the first time since the pandemic began. As has generally been the case this year, that move was driven by higher real rates, with the rise in the 10yr real yield leaving it at its highest level since last April, at -0.62%, while the 30yr real yield is now just 6bps from crossing into positive territory for the first time since last spring.

Over in Europe, there were similar moves higher in sovereign bond yields, with those on 10yr bunds (+0.7bps) closing at -0.02%, also nudging closer to positive territory than at any point since May 2019. That said, the growing divergence in policy expectations between the Fed and the ECB meant there was a further widening in the spread between 2yr yields on US and German debt, and yesterday saw the spread widen to a post-pandemic high of 162bps. Elsewhere in Europe, yields on 10yr gilts (+3.1bps) hit their highest since May 2019 as well, whilst those on 10yr OATs (+1.3bps) hit a post-pandemic high.

The prospect of a more rapid pace of hikes sent US equities to their lowest levels so far this year, with the S&P 500 (-1.83%) experiencing a broad-based decline that left just 58 companies in the index in the green for the day. Over the last year, there’s only been 9 days with fewer stocks advancing. Tech stocks underperformed yet again, with the NASDAQ down a further -2.60%, which in turn brings its decline since its all-time high in November to over -9%, so not far off a -10% correction. And against this backdrop, the VIX index of volatility rose +3.7pts to 22.9pts, its highest level so far this year, albeit still some way beneath its peak above 30 that it reached shortly after the news of the Omicron variant arrived. European equities struggled too, with the STOXX 600 down -0.97%.

To the extent one believes the recent equity market performance is driven by tighter central bank policy, which will be reversed should enough pain be endured (the proverbial Fed put, as it were), the problem in this cycle is that inflation will make that more troublesome. So the last 40 years of the central bank put could be severely tested before this cycle is out.

The one sector in the S&P 500 that actually ended the day in positive territory yesterday was energy (+0.40%), having been bolstered by a fresh rise in oil prices that took them to their highest levels since 2014. By the close, Brent Crude (+1.19%) had surpassed $87/bbl, whilst WTI (+1.92%) was above $85/bbl, which won’t be welcome news for policymakers who’d been hoping for some respite on the inflation front. The latest surge has had a number of drivers, one of which is that the Omicron variant proved much less severe than initially feared and helped prices recover their losses from late November when they fell into the mid-$60s. Separately, a drone attack in the UAE on oil facilities has alerted investors to supply-side risks, which comes amidst production outages elsewhere. Oil has again found support in the Asian session after a key pipeline that brings crude from Iraq to Turkey was knocked down by an explosion adding to supply concerns.

While financials have benefitted from the recent run higher in yields, their fourth quarter earnings have been a bit underwhelming so far. Six financials reported yesterday and only one beat on both earnings and sales estimates. A common finding among financials reporting thus far is that trading revenues were lower in the fourth quarter while expenses were higher. So the sector has stalled after the good start to the year on the higher rates/yields story.

Overnight in Asia, major bourses across the region are trading lower again led by the Nikkei (-2.27%) after Toyota Motor’s (-4.7%) sharp decline as the company warned that it would be very difficult to meet its production target for this fiscal year due to supply-chain constraints. Sony Corporation fell as much as -10.0% in Tokyo, recording its biggest intraday drop in almost two years following Microsoft’s Activision Blizzard deal worth $69 billion. Elsewhere the Kospi (-0.47%), CSI (-0.58%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.30%) are moving lower. However the Hang Seng Index (+0.02%) is holding in better.

Looking forward, stock futures in the DM world are indicating that the declines will continue with the S&P 500 (-0.67%), Nasdaq (-0.89%) and DAX (-0.67%) all trading in the red.

Back to yesterday and on the data front, UK unemployment fell to a post-pandemic low of 4.1% in the three months ending in November (vs. 4.2% expected). Meanwhile in Germany, the January ZEW survey saw the expectations component rise to a 6-month high of 51.7 (vs. 32.0 expected), although the current situation fell back to an 8-month low of -10.2 (vs. -8.8 expected). Finally in the US, the Empire State manufacturing survey for January fell to -0.7 (vs. 25.0 expected), and the NAHB’s housing market index fell to 83 (vs. 84 expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the UK and Canada’s CPI reading for December, along with US housing start and building permits for December. Central bank speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, Deputy Governor Cunliffe and the ECB’s Holzmann. Finally, earnings releases include UnitedHealth Group, Bank of America, Procter & Gamble, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, US Bancorp and United Airlines.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.73 PTS OR 0.33%      //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 15.03 PTS OR 0.06% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 790.02 PTS OR 2.80-%      //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.02%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.3468    /Oil UP TO 86.08 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 87.86 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN EXCEPT ITALY     //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP  AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3468. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3504: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN AND OFF SHORE TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

3B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/COVID

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

//GERMANY//NORDSTREAM II

Germany threatens Russia that if they enter the Ukraine, the will halt all Nordstream 2 passage

(zerohedge)

Germany Threatens To Halt Nord Stream 2 If Russia Attacks Ukraine

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 19, 2022 – 05:45 AM

On Tuesday German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was asked directly in a press Q&A whether a Russian military offensive in Ukraine might lead to NATO military intervention on behalf of Kiev. 

Scholz responded by underlining “serious” political and economic consequences, but appeared to rule out any assistance from Germany on the military front, saying there won’t be arms deliveries either. But importantly, he said that Berlin would mull halting the flow of natural gas from Russia.

Germany may consider halting the Nord Stream 2 pipeline if Russia attacks Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz signaled on Tuesday, as pressure grew on his government to take a more hawkish stance on the Kremlin,” Reuters reports of the statements made after he met with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.

The ‘options on the table’ would include sanctioning the pipeline as well. Though amid already soaring energy prices in a frigid European winter, this ‘option’ would at the same time involve Germany shooting itself in the foot, if urgent supply needs can’t be met elsewhere

“It is clear that there will be a high price to pay and that everything will have to be discussed should there be a military intervention in Ukraine,” Scholz said.

But the chancellor added: “We are not interested in long-term tensions, quite the contrary. But it is also important that everyone adheres to the principles that we have agreed on, and this means that Russia must adhere to the principles of the OSCE [the Organization for Security Co-Operation in Europe].”

He called for Russia to reduce its troop presence near Ukraine, while highlight that both Russia nad Germany desire to maintain “constructive and stable relations.”

Germany has long been engaged in a tightrope balance of sorts on Russia – on the one hand pushing through the €10 billion, over 1,200km long gas transit pipeline which bypasses Ukraine and Poland – while on the other seeking to satisfy its impatient powerful Western ally, the US.

Commenting on this, Reuters notes that “Some observers say he is sending mixed signals by calling the pipeline, which has already been built but not yet approved for operation, a private commercial project that should not be singled out for sanctions.”

In remains, meanwhile, that Russia holds on the leverage on the energy front when it comes to any potential Europe attempts to strike out with punitive measures…

end

Bund Yields Turn Positive For First Time In 3 Years, USTs Bounce Off Critical Support

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 19, 2022 – 08:31 AM

German 10Y yields climbed above zero for the first time since May 2019 just as money markets brought forward bets on a 10-basis-point European Central Bank rate hike to September from October previously. Traders expect that by the end of next year, the policy rate will no longer be negative.

But, as Bloomberg’s Ven Ram notes, the key things to watch out for will be how sustainable the move is, how much of a tightening in financial conditions the ECB will tolerate (it may yet take a sanguine approach if Treasury yields continue to trek higher) and where the near-term top for yields is (my expectation is around 0.15%-0.20% — though this isn’t a year-end target). It would be a surprise if the ECB were to allow bund yields to climb all the way to where they need to be. Notice also that the 10-year swap rate is around 0.41%, closer to the implied level on bunds.

However, the two-year yield is still trailing the benchmark deposit rate. That nonchalance at the front end of the curve may yet continue given that the ECB is unlikely to raise rates this year, setting us up nicely for further curve steepening.

Meanwhile, US Treasuries are suddenly bid – after some weakness overnight – as the 10Y Future tagged the $127 level we warned about yesterday as critical and reversed rapidly.

As Nomura’s Charlie McElligott noted: the most critical security “level” in global markets right now is 127 in UST 10Y Treasury Futs (TYH2), because the Street is short just a massive amount of downside struck there in TYH2 Puts, with 321,729 of OI (while we continue blowing-through downside strikes of all levels, most notably the TYH2P 127.5 level and its 140,579 of OI and the 128 strike’s 105,818 of OI); if that 127 level goes, the potential for a “short gamma / negative convexity” event grows substantially on Dealer hedging “accelerant” flows.

And that reversal (from 1.90% – which is equiv to $127 in Futs) is accelerating…

Is this a pause that refreshes in the rates surge?

“It’s a done deal that 10-year Treasuries hit 2%, but the selloff is likely to slow for a bit then,” said Damien McColough, head of fixed-income research at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney.

“Yields will definitely go higher still once the Fed delivers its first hike.”

However, an extended spike in yields could spur the Fed to move to reassure markets, according to Resona Asset Management.

“I don’t expect 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to keep rising on and on beyond 2%,” said Mamoru Shimode, chief strategist at Resona.

“That’s unlikely to be something that the Fed will tolerate.”

Everyone and their pet rabbit is short bonds here, so perhaps the pain trade in the short-term is indeed lower in yield.

end

UK/COVID/VACCINE MANDATE

England Ends All COVID Passports, Mask Mandates, Work Restrictions

WEDNESDAY, JAN 19, 2022 – 12:45 PM

By Lily Zhou of the Epoch Times

Restrictions including COVID-19 passes, mask mandates, and work-from-home requirements will be removed in England, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on Wednesday. Johnson also suggested that self-isolation rules may also be thrown out at the end of March as the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus pandemic becomes endemic.

Effective immediately, the UK government is no longer asking people to work from home.  The COVID pass mandate for nightclubs and large events won’t be renewed when it expires on Jan. 26. And from Thursday, indoor mask-wearing will no longer be compulsory anywhere in England.

The requirement for secondary school pupils to wear masks during class and in communal areas will also be removed from the Department for Education’s national guidance.

Roaring cheers from lawmakers could be heard in the House of Commons following Johnson’s announcements on masks.

People who test positive for COVID-19 and their unvaccinated contacts are still required to self-isolate, but Johnson said he “very much expect[s] not to renew” the rule when the relevant regulations expire on March 24.

“As COVID becomes endemic, we will need to replace legal requirements with advice and guidance, urging people with the virus to be careful and considerate of others,” the prime minister said.

Asked to remove testing rules for vaccinated UK-bound travellers, Johnson said the government is reviewing the testing arrangements on travel and that an announcement can be expected in the coming days.

But he refused to reconsider the vaccination mandate for frontline health care workers, insisting “the evidence is clear that health care professionals should get vaccinated.”

Johnson told MPs that the Cabinet decided to remove its so-called “Plan B” measures on Wednesday morning as data suggest the Omicron wave has peaked nationally, and he attributed stabilising hospital admission numbers to “the extraordinary booster campaign” and the public’s compliance to the restriction measures.

The removal of the “Plan B” measures against the CCP virus came as the prime minister battles increasing pressure calling for him to resign over alleged lockdown-breaching parties in Number 10 Downing Street, the prime minister’s official residence, during the pandemic.

It also came after Number 10 received a petition on Monday signed by more than 200,000 people, calling for an end to vaccine passports and similar COVID certifications.

A separate petition calling on the reversal of vaccine mandates for health care workers, which was also delivered to Number 10 on Monday, received about 160,000 signatures.

Governments in Scotland and Wales have also announced the removal of Omicron curbs, but mandatory indoor mask-wearing and COVID passes will remain in place.

end

COVID IS NOW OVER IN THE UK

Inbox

Robert Hryniak10:29 AM (1 hour ago)
to

Likely to gain traction in other countries as the narrative wears thin and falls apart and politicians try to get off the Covid narrative train. We will see more countries put this behind them over the next 2 months.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA, NATO/USA
I have been asked this many a time by friends and business acquaintances and colleagues. So let me try and explain. 

There are 2 things going on. In America, the Democrats have lost all creditability and will lose the November elections unless they fix the vote. Think i am kidding? Listen to cooler chatter in fantasy land DC where they are trying to convince Garland to indict Trump over the so called event of January 6, 2021. In their delusional state, they think they will win, if they can pull this off. I suggest they will get a civil war or worse as this will not fly. Biden will sign anything put in front of him so this is an avenue they are pursuing rather aggressively now. The Neocon crowd is full control of a agenda geared for war. But let’s ponder something i have raised before. Have you noticed that everything being said and done is administrative in nature. Sure direction of sanctions and ship movements or political support is all administrative in nature. But a declaration of war is not on the table. WHY? I will offer to you this thought, the Biden crowd cannot do so, because they are not in charge of the nuclear triad. Let that sink in for moment. Sure they will support NATO in their delusional belief they can win a war against Russia; but America cannot declare war under Biden because he is not the commander in chief. Should i be correct in this assessment NATO and European nations will administrated into war, a war they cannot win but watch the drums beat for European unity to mask the sovereign debt crisis. And the neocon dogs will bark and do nutty things like cut Russia off from Swift. Sure Russia will be hurt by this. But ask yourself if such action is taken what happens if Russia cuts the  undersea cables that Swift needs to function. How many hours will take before we see bank collapses? China will be glad to oblige to cut the Pacific cables. Would you not consider this fair, in a game of war? The scare noise of we will nuke them, if they do that is simply noise. A Nuclear strike on Russia will be responded with a complete wipeout of the aggressor. So to what benefit is such talk? 

Why Europe desperately needs to unleash the hell dogs of war is all because of their economic crisis thanks to their negative interest rates starting in 2014, which have  destroyed their sovereign debt market and the ECB is in peril unable to restore interest rates to normal. This has also undermined pension funds and savings throughout Europe. It was a mistake in 2014 and has continued unabated as a error to a time when little time is left. The value of Sovereign European debt is zero outside the EU. And this is causing fracture even in Europe as Macron wants dollars for French goods and not Euro’s. What happens if the value of Euro’s is considered to be null? Why wold either China or Russia want a currency where the Sovereign bond debt is worth zero with external lenders? Does that not tell the story? Would you lend to person or company with no credit worthiness? So ponder the true solvency of the ECB and question why the Fed is doing swaps with European  banks who titter on insolvency day to day. How would they account for such losses? But that is a subject for another day. 

NATO, hence Europe, is pushing for war because this COVID scam is starting to fail. And they have no more rabbits in hat to pull out. Klaus at the WEF is most despaired as he sees his plans fold like the debt of Europe. Even a number of politicians are questioning the logic of “build back better” based on a collapsing economy and a false debt marketplace. To have Sovereign debt shunned by American banks also means neither China or Russia have any stomach for it.  Protests are all over Europe and the media has desperately tried to comply by not reporting on the civil unrest under the theory that it would inspire others to join. War will bring a distraction for as I have cautioned, they are unable to maintain this COVID nonsense much longer. Meanwhile the Ukrainians are willingly participants in a game of extinction. Russia needs not to send a single soldier to the Ukraine to destroy  their military forces and their foreign advisors on the ground. 

The EU now needs war to unite its people which is their theory using patriotism to flip the people to then support the governments of Europe against Russia. Really, i doubt the Europeans at large have stomach for war and certainly are not interested in dying for their  governments. That moral leadership is long gone. Just like the collapsing Covid narrative.  The EU is poking Russia deliberately and they are really praying for Russia to invade. They want that, to continue in order to distract the public  and use war as the escape from the COVID false flag. They will most likely try to wrap COVID up within 2 months. So their time to have another narrative is very short. Russia  as the bogeyman is convenient and expedient. Their problem is modern warfare is not what war used to be. And missiles once launched do hit targets without mercy. And i doubt any war would last more than 2 months as missiles will do what it took previous armies months to do in minutes, hours and days. In such warfare, battlefield troops are the mop up crew. I also doubt that in a conflict Russia will be defensive; rather I anticipate they will full on offensive and launch whatever is seen fit in mass taking the fight to the opponents. 

Pushed enough Russia will react but to think that Russia wishes to occupy Europe or even the Ukraine is a myth. Russia really needs neither as there is nothing they need or even desire, and what they find of value and interest, they are prepared to purchase.  Sure, they like British Soccer teams and the like but that can be bought so no fight is needed. And I seriously doubt that Putin cares if he cannot shop in London or Paris. Such talk is simply fantasy. 

The risk of war starts to increase by the week starting next week. And as time passes the risk to American Hegemony grows even if such perceived hegemony is a PR event. America needs desperately to rebuild itself and find the true American spirit to lead and ditch fantasy land thinking for critical thinking. To both Russia and China a strong America is a better option than a weak splintered America. Although the Chinese would like to advance further in their capability at America’s expense. Russia  shares no such desire and would much rather be a competitive friend than a enemy. And Russia is singular in countries that intervened with a naval fleet to safeguard America from the British and the French. Today, America is more valued as counter balance to China than an enemy to be destroyed and thus creating  a vacuum of power. 
CheersROBERT

end

ISRAEL/UAE

Israel offers the UAE help after that deadly Houthi drone attack

(zerohedge)

Israel Offers UAE ‘Intelligence & Security’ Help After Deadly Houthi Drone Attack

 TUESDAY, JAN 18, 2022 – 08:50 PM

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have claimed responsibility for a deadly drone and ballistic missile attack which rocked the United Arab Emirates’ capital of Abu Dhabi on Monday. The strike, which demonstrated an increasingly sophisticated capability among the Houthis, hit an oil facility owned by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. A Houthi military spokesman said that the group “carried out… a successful military operation” against “important and sensitive Emirati sites and installations.”

The attack killed two Indian nationals and one Pakistani as three tankers at the site exploded, police said,” The Associated Press reports. “Six people were also wounded at the facility, which is near Al-Dhafra Air Base, a massive Emirati installation also home to American and French forces.”Screenshot purporting to show Monday attack aftermath, via Times of Israel.

The AP also suggested a possible attack during the same aerial offensive which hit Abu Dhabi International Airport, given a fire broke out there. Subsequent satellite images which emerged showed significant damage at the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. facility, which is the state-owned energy firm providing much of the Arab Gulf country’s national oil wealth.

On Tuesday, there was a surprise offer of intelligence assistance from Israel, which follows the September 2020 signing of normalization between the UAE and Israel under the Abraham Accords. 

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett wrote a letter to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed saying that he “ordered the Israeli security establishment to provide their counterparts in the UAE with any assistance” in order to defend against future potential attacks.  

The Times of Israel reports that PM Bennett said the following

“Israel stands with the UAE. I stand with [Crown Prince] Mohammed bin Zayed. The world should stand against terror.”

In a letter to bin Zayed, Bennett said Jerusalem was committed to working with Abu Dhabi “in the ongoing battle against extremist forces in the region, and we will continue to partner with you to defeat our common enemies.”

The UAE has vowed revenge, with the UAE-Saudi coalition have already launched fresh strikes “targeting Houthi camps and headquarters” in Sanaa, according to Gulf media. 

At the same time UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan announced that “We condemn the Houthi terrorist militia’s targeting of civilian areas and facilities on UAE soil today… this sinful targeting will not go unpunished.” A UAE statement further dubbed it a “heinous criminal escalation.”

The timing of this increased security partnership between Israel and the UAE – which up until the tail-end of the Trump administration didn’t even have official relations – is further interesting given the ongoing diplomatic talks between the Saudis and Iranians which strive to mutually reopen embassies. Certainly Israel getting deeper into assisting the coalition in the Yemen conflict will be alarming for Tehran, pitting archenemies Israel and Iran on opposite sides of another regional war in a more direct way.

end

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE ISSUES/

CORONAVIRUS/UPDATE/VACCINE MANDATE

A 4th jab will not save patients from being infected with Omicron…

Fourth COVID Jab Won’t Save Patients From Being Infected With Omicron, Study Finds

TUESDAY, JAN 18, 2022 – 04:50 PM

The latest research out of Israel appears to confirm what skeptics have long feared: even two or three booster shots aren’t enough to protect somebody – even those who are perfectly healthy – from being infected with the omicron variant.

Sheba Hospital in Tel Aviv last month tested a fourth jab given to more than 270 medical workers; 154 got the Pfizer jab, and 120 received Moderna’s jab.

The researchers’ conclusions, revealed Monday, found that both groups showed a “slightly higher” increase in antibodies following the fourth injection than they saw after the third. Unfortunately, the levels produced still weren’t high enough to prevent infection via the omicron variant, which is responsible for the bulk of new infections.

“Despite increased antibody levels, the fourth vaccine only offers a partial defense against the virus,” said Dr. Gili Regev-Yochay, director of the hospital’s infection disease unit leading the study.

The study saw “many infected with Omicron who received the fourth dose,” she said. “Granted, a bit less than in the control group, but still a lot of infections.”

“The vaccines, which were more effective against previous variants, offer less protection versus Omicron,” Dr. Regev-Yochay said. They added that the vaccines are “not good enough” to prevent infection with the less-severe new variant.

Data from the study hasn’t yet been published in full; only the conclusions have.

But it was enough to raise questions about Israel’s decision to be the first country in the world to start doling out a second booster jab to those deemed most at risk.

Even after publicizing its conclusions, Sheba Hospital called for “continuing the vaccination drive…even though the vaccine doesn’t provide optimal protection against getting infected with the variant.”

The WHO will likely be less than pleased, as the organization has repeatedly urged developed democracies to abandon booster drives and instead allocate more jabs to poorer countries where vaccination is far less pervasive.

Local media reported that Sheba Hospital was pressured by the government to release its statement urging Israelis to get their second booster after top Israeli officials didn’t appreciate the study’s findings.

The director of Israeli’s Health Ministry, Dr. Nahman Ash, insisted that the country’s decision to dole out second booster jabs wasn’t a “mistake”, while PM Naftali Bennett insisted that doling out a 4th shot to some Israelis would continue to help the government “safeguard public health.”

endNobel prize winner Luc Montagnier pounds the table on the new variant Omicron. It makes Biden’s vaccine mandate obsolete(Luc Montagnier)…..Omicron Makes Biden’s Vaccine Mandates Obsolete

By Luc Montagnier and Jed Rubenfeld
The Wall Street Journal
Sunday, January 9, 2022

https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-makes-bidens-vaccine-mandates-obsolete-covid-healthcare-osha-evidence-supreme-court-11641760009

Federal courts considering the Biden administration’s vaccination mandates—including the Supreme Court at Friday’s oral argument—have focused on administrative-law issues. The decrees raise constitutional issues as well. But there’s a simpler reason the justices should stay these mandates: the rise of the Omicron variant.

It would be irrational, legally indefensible and contrary to the public interest for government to mandate vaccines absent any evidence that the vaccines are effective in stopping the spread of the pathogen they target. Yet that’s exactly what’s happening here.

Both mandates—from the Health and Human Services Department for healthcare workers and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration for large employers in many other industries—were issued Nov. 5. At that time, the Delta variant represented almost all U.S. Covid-19 cases, and both agencies appropriately considered Delta at length and in detail, finding that the vaccines remained effective against it.

Those findings are now obsolete. As of Jan. 1, Omicron represented more than 95% of U.S. Covid cases, according to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Because some of Omicron’s 50 mutations are known to evade antibody protection, because more than 30 of those mutations are to the spike protein used as an immunogen by the existing vaccines, and because there have been mass Omicron outbreaks in heavily vaccinated populations, scientists are highly uncertain the existing vaccines can stop it from spreading. As the CDC put it on Dec. 20, “we don’t yet know . . . how well available vaccines and medications work against it.”

The Supreme Court held in Jacobson v. Massachusetts (1905) that the right to refuse medical treatment could be overcome when society needs to curb the spread of a contagious epidemic. At Friday’s oral argument, all the justices acknowledged that the federal mandates rest on this rationale. But mandating a vaccine to stop the spread of a disease requires evidence that the vaccines will prevent infection or transmission (rather than efficacy against severe outcomes like hospitalization or death). As the World Health Organization puts it, “if mandatory vaccination is considered necessary to interrupt transmission chains and prevent harm to others, there should be sufficient evidence that the vaccine is efficacious in preventing serious infection and/or transmission.” For Omicron, there is as yet no such evidence.

The little data we have suggest the opposite. One preprint study found that after 30 days the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines no longer had any statistically significant positive effect against Omicron infection, and after 90 days, their effect went negative—i.e., vaccinated people were more susceptible to Omicron infection. Confirming this negative efficacy finding, data from Denmark and the Canadian province of Ontario indicate that vaccinated people have higher rates of Omicron infection than unvaccinated people.

Meantime, it has long been known that vaccinated people with breakthrough infections are highly contagious, and preliminary data from all over the world indicate that this is true of Omicron as well. As CDC Director Rochelle Walensky put it last summer, the viral load in the noses and throats of vaccinated people infected with Delta is “indistinguishable” from that of unvaccinated people, and “what [the vaccines] can’t do anymore is prevent transmission.”

There is some early evidence that boosters may reduce Omicron infections, but the effect appears to wane quickly, and we don’t know if repeated boosters would be an effective response to the surge of Omicron. That depends among other things on the severity of disease Omicron causes, another great unknown. According to the CDC, the overwhelming majority of symptomatic U.S. Omicron cases have been mild. The best policy might be to let Omicron run its course while protecting the most vulnerable, naturally immunizing the vast majority against Covid through infection by a relatively benign strain. As Sir Andrew Pollard, head of the U.K.’s Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, said in a recent interview, “We can’t vaccinate the planet every four or six months. It’s not sustainable or affordable.”

In any event, the vaccine mandates before the court don’t require boosters. They define “fully vaccinated” as two doses of Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech or one dose of Johnson & Johnson. Even if boosters would help, the mandates would leave tens or hundreds of thousands of unboosted employees on the job, who have zero or negative protection against Omicron infection, and who would be highly contagious if they become infected. In other words, there is no scientific basis for believing these mandates will curb the spread of the disease.

Omicron was mentioned sparsely at Friday’s oral argument, but the justices—particularly those most favorable to the mandates—appeared to labor under drastically false assumptions. Justice Stephen Breyer suggested that if mandatory vaccination went forward, that would prevent all new Covid infections—750,000 new cases every day, he said. This is wildly false. So is Justice Sonia Sotomayor’s assertion that “we have over 100,000 children . . . in serious condition, many on ventilators.” According to Health and Human Services Department data, there are currently fewer than 3,500 confirmed pediatric Covid hospitalizations, and that includes patients who tested positive and were hospitalized for other reasons.

It is axiomatic in U.S. law that courts don’t uphold agency directives when the agency has entirely failed to consider facts crucial to the problem. In many contexts courts send regulations back to the agency for reconsideration in light of dramatically changed circumstances. If the agency’s action “is not sustainable on the record itself, the proper judicial approach has been to vacate the action and to remand the matter back to the agency for further consideration,” as the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia put it.

Neither HHS nor OSHA ever considered Omicron or said a word about vaccine efficacy against it, for the simple reason that it hadn’t yet been discovered. In these circumstances, longstanding legal principles require the justices to stay the mandates and send them back to the agencies for a fresh look.

—–

Dr. Montagnier was a winner of the 2008 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for discovering the human immunodeficiency virus. Mr. Rubenfeld is a constitutional scholar.
end
My goodness:  blood clots are appearing everywhere(zerohedge)

Man Suffers “Agonizing” Penile Blood Clot Caused By COVID

 TUESDAY, JAN 18, 2022 – 09:10 PM

As it turns out, one man’s bodily reaction to COVID has proven that the virus truly isn’t confined to the throat and upper respiratory tract.

According to a foreign medical journal, an Iranian man has drawn the interest of doctors after reporting “agonizing” pain in his penis that turned out to have been caused by blood clots that seriously threatened the man’s sexual health.

The man, who wasn’t named in the news reports about the incident, had suffered penile pain for three days before being seen by a urologist in Iran, who referred him for tests. Keep in mind: one of the side effects of mRNA COVID jabs is they cause blood clots in the heart.

The patient’s discomfort began following an erection while having sex, according to the 41-year-old married man, who had not experienced any trauma to his pelvic area that might explain his behavior.

Scientists have learned over the course of the pandemic that COVID doesn’t just cause respiratory symptoms: One of its other features is to increase the tendency of blood to clot. In fact, this is often the cause of death.

“Roughly, 20% to 50% of hospitalized patients with COVID infection have abnormal coagulation tests,” Morteza Bagheri wrote.

“Searching the literature showed no previously published similar case of deep dorsal penile vein thrombosis following COVID infection and our patient is the first reported case,” Bagheri continued.

Penile complications have occurred in the US, too. A 69-year-old man in Ohio suffered a three-hour erection – a condition called priapism – due to blood clotting problems in his penis.

Writing in the American Journal of American Medicine, a team of medics said that they believed COVID had caused clots to form in his penis, trapping blood in the erection chambers. Doctors had to drain blood from the penis using a needle because ice packs didn’t work to bring the stiffness down.

Over in France, another man in his 60s had to go through the same procedure after COVID left him with an erection that lasted for four hours.

However, the damage caused to the man’s blood vessels during this episode could make it more difficult for him to get future erections.

None of this is news, of course: As we reported last year, one study established a link between erectile dysfunction and COVID.

“In our pilot study, we found that men who previously did not complain of erectile dysfunction developed pretty severe erectile dysfunction after the onset of COVID-19 infection,” the study’s authors wrote.

This doesn’t bode well for birth rates, which have fallen substantially in recent years in the West, as Tesla CEO Elon Musk pointed out in a series of tweets earlier this week.

END

Five nurses speak out about what is really going on in hospitals

If you think our healthcare system is well run and there is no corruption, you are in for a big surprise. A very open and honest conversation with 5 nurses.

Steve KirschJan 17462299

The nurses are from America’s Frontline Nurses.

Hear first hand about the death threats, job dismissals, break ins, and shoddy treatment by the local police department. You’ll hear about how in the hospital patients were not fed for 9 days. You’ll learn why if you want to give a patient ivermectin it requires a court order. Is there a hospital where you can get decent care? Yes, they know of one hospital in Utah. Why can’t we create a hospital that puts patients first? Can you negotiate the outrageous hospital bills? (turns out you might be able to but I can’t).

Comments on Rumble include:

  • You all have my deep gratitude; the bravery to speak out in truth at risk of your own safety and livelihoods. I am so sorry for the horrors you have to witness and these perilous times worldwide.
  • As a nurse for over 35 yrs I am proud of these women. This is the absolute role of a nurse. Patient advocate!!
  • Fantastic interview! Among the best that I have ever seen. Thank you!
  • Oh gee aside from the medical side, the stuff about their messages being scrubbed, intercepted, etc. That is terrifying.

Note: Not all 5 are technically nurses. 3 are.

WHO crushes the Biden covid plan with respect to kids:: no evidence that kids need booster shots. 

(zerohedge)

WHO Crushes Biden COVID Plan, Says “No Evidence At All” That Healthy Kids Needs ‘Booster’ Jabs

 TUESDAY, JAN 18, 2022 – 08:30 PM

The Chief Scientist of the World Health Organization has just crushed what little credibility the Biden administration’s COVID response team had by confirming what most parents’ common-sense already told them – that there is no evidence that healthy children need booster doses of COVID-19 vaccine.

WHO Chief Scientist Dr. Soumya Swaminathan said Tuesday that “there is no evidence right now that healthy children or adolescents need boosters. No evidence at all.”

“The aim is to protect the most vulnerable, to protect those at highest risk of severe disease and dying. Those are our elderly populations, immuno-compromised people with underlying conditions, but also healthcare workers,” she said.

Watch her full statement here:

Swaminathan’s comments come roughly two weeks after the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) approved booster shots for adolescents aged 12 to 17 amid the current surge in coronavirus cases due to the highly contagious omicron variant.

Israel has begun offering boosters to children as young as 12, Hungary has also done so, and Germany became the latest country to recommend that all children between ages of 12 and 17 receive a COVID-19 booster shot.

Swaminathan said the agency’s advisory group, called Sage, or the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization, will meet later this week to consider how countries should think about giving booster shots.

The initial jabs have proven ineffective and dangerous, contrary to the insistence of politicians, big money media, and college administrators.

The case for boosters of more-of-the-same across many schools and college campuses has now become ludicrous.

In fact, very recently, two Ivy League parents Joni McGary and Dr. Alison Pretti have decided up to stand-up to colleges determined to impose the experimental vaccine booster jab on students. Watch:

Science is now on their side (well WHO “science” that is).

However, we are sure Fauci, Walensky, and Biden will be full-court-press tomorrow to continue to pressure parents to get their kids (enter ‘whisper mode’) patriotically boosted… because of the science (as long as it’s not the WHO Chief Scientist’s “science”.)

We give none other than Rand Paul the last word, since he has been among the most outspoken against Fauci’s (and Birx’s before him) so-called “science”…

[why is the goverment] pushing booster vaccines on kids for a disease is that is less deadly in children than the season flu.”

A good question Senator Paul.

e

end

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

Michael Every..

The People Who Played “Call Of Duty” In Real Life Are Getting Worried

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 19, 2022 – 10:05 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Call of Duty; Duty of Care

I didn’t want to focus on Russia-Ukraine again today. However, when Bloomberg thinks Microsoft buying Activision, makers of the wartime video game “Call of Duty”, is more important rather than the risks of actual war, I have to. That editorial choice perfectly summarizes why one shouldn’t look to financial media for a forward view of the fat tail risks that can truly move markets most. It also epitomizes a generation for whom if things aren’t on their screens, they aren’t happening or didn’t happen, and that thinks wars are games and movies; and an ‘ESG’-obsessed Wall Street that actually doesn’t care about things like that if they aren’t the ones on the end of it.

Anyway, the US has reportedly taken its financial ‘nuclear weapon’ of taking Russia off of SWIFT off of the table, just as its actual nuclear weapons were removed as a threat recently at the UN – after it also indicated it, and NATO, won’t fight for Ukraine conventionally either. The latest decision is allegedly over fears of “short-term market destabilization” and worries that breaking SWIFT would shatter the global financial system. So the integrity of the global/US security architecture is now secondary to the US stock-market. Meanwhile, Russian stocks are slumping, and the Kremlin does not seem to care. Which of the two countries therefore has more real power in this stand-off? Indeed, in flagging Wall St must not be touched to defend US hegemony, D.C. just downsized its deterrent power. This signalling lowers the potential cost of Russian action.

On which note, Russia’s amphibious landing fleet just left the Baltic and is heading for the Black Sea, as its missiles continue to roll West. Yesterday also saw an unusually large number of US navy vessels and aircraft leave harbour/home base. The US now flags a joint threat to Ukraine from Belarus-Russia, who can easily pincer it, as Kyiv calls up 130,000 reservists to supplement its 246,000-strong army. Moscow rejected a NATO offer of further talks, no doubt as playing for time in the hope spring’s mud drives fears of war into it too: yet there have been Russian rumblings that if the US continues to ignore its demands, it may deploy tactical nuclear weapons close to the US mainland, which would take us straight to Cuban Missile Crisis territory. Against this backdrop, US Secretary of State Blinken travels to Kyiv then Berlin before meeting his Russian counterpart in Geneva. We shall see how much diplomacy is in all this shuttling, but it worries lots (though not all) of the people who usually don’t worry: the ones who played ‘Call of Duty’ in real life.

For markets, think of it as simply as this: on the back of Iran-backed Houthis attacking the UAE with drones (as the US keeps appeasing Iran regardless in the hope of avoiding conflict there), and a blast taking out the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, Brent crude was already at USD87.5 this morning in Asia, up 12.5% year-to-date, and double Russia’s budgetary break-even level. Where do you think oil and gas will be if Russia moves on Ukraine? ‘Gamers’ might say “They can’t sanction Russian energy, dude, it’s winter!” Yes, in which case, is Putin worried about acting?

China and Iran are naturally watching every single (mis)step the US and West make over Ukraine: how far are they prepared to go? And will that also apply to Asia given the new focus there? They, and Russia, are also about to hold joint naval exercises . If you can’t see the prospective ‘sides’ being formed, then you must work on Wall Street or for Bloomberg. As such, the US is trying to show it *is* able to confront Wall Street when it comes to China: yesterday saw Alibaba come under US regulators’ crosshairs, as did a US plane maker. Let’s see if there is any follow-through if fund managers squeal.

Indeed, as a Wall Street titan kicks off a Twitter storm with his comments, does broader issue is if The Street has a Call of Duty to venality or, as BlackRock’s Larry ‘$10 trillion’ Fink believes, it has a Duty of Care on key issues. If so, how does an industry that sells bullets to the highest bidder, metaphorically, deal with geopolitics? The easy answer is to just shout “ESG”! On which, I quote directly from @LynAldenContact: “ESG investing” in its current from is similar to people who take selfies of themselves in fancy locations to show they were there, while barely experiencing it for real. Mostly theatre, little substance. For example, we pollute, but buy offsets to make it someone else’s problem. We outsource our manufacturing base to another country to reduce headline energy consumption, but then buy products they make while blaming them for polluting. This is deflection, not reform. Software companies that build a business around addicting teens to their platform with regular dopamine hits & abuse user data sit atop the ESG investment indices, while fossil fuel producers that keep billions of people alive and comfortable are often excluded as a whole sector. She goes on, but you get the point.

The EU and Wall Street cannot avoid being dragged into the China issue. Indeed, as Lithuania remains deleted from China’s trade database entirely –to no EU reaction so far– Slovenia says it is also about to open a Taiwan trade representative office too: what will it be called?

Worse, the EU (and Wall Street) cannot avoid being dragged into the Ukraine mess. In a worst-case scenario, Russia ploughs through the Suwalki Gap to Kaliningrad, bisecting the EU, and leaving three members with Russian minorities encircled; ends up on Romania’s border via Transnistria; millions of refugees flood West; US threats to fund a Ukrainian insurgency, as in Soviet-controlled Afghanistan, are based in the eastern EU, which sees Moscow focusing on it; or the EU shrugs, the US shrugs too, walks away and,…Я уже немного говорю по-русски? Ты? The former Estonian president is also not holding back on Twitter: “…I think you get the whole stinking awfulness perfectly. The weakness of the West, its smarmy pointless rhetoric to cover self-interest, mediocre, talentless leadership and amazing depths of political cowardice.”

In central-bank-land, geopolitics is not the concern – yet. However, after this week’s surprise rate cut, the PBOC has pledged to “open the monetary toolbox wider” to avoid a credit collapse, maintain a stable money supply, and exchange-rate stability. So, rate cuts and orders not to sell, and to lend regardless? How rates are cut, and the money-supply stays stable, and credit doesn’t collapse, and the exchange rate remains stable, and inflation remains low, and growth remains high will be interesting to observe, but running a vast trade surplus is going to be a large part of it. It’s ironic the PBOC says it will open the toolbox wider, because it is already doing de facto MMT.  And in Hong Kong, 2,000 hamsters just got killed to stop the spread of Covid. And “Hamster Transmission Mechanism” is my new Death Metal band name.

The Fed, by contrast, is hawkish, and Philip Marey has shifted his call from 2 to 4 hikes this year, noting: “…the turn of the year has seen a pivot by the FOMC from FAITful doves to born-again hawks. Are they already too late, are they going to hike too fast, or will they be able to bring down inflation to target without interrupting the economic recovery? We all hope for the last, but getting a hiking cycle right has always been a difficult task for the Fed. And this one is even more difficult than previous iterations. First of all, the neutral policy rate has fallen over time, but it is unclear where it exactly is now. So there is very little room for manoeuvre, while the boundary is unclear. If the Fed ventures too far into restrictive territory too fast, then it risks causing a recession. In contrast, if the Fed remains behind the curve, inflation could spiral out of control and warrant an acceleration of rate hikes that surely delivers a recession. What’s more, the 2021 response to inflation shows that the Fed has no clue about forecasting inflation. So a central bank that does not understand inflation is going to bring it back to target, without accident? Sounds like another dream from which only a rude awakening is possible.”

Markets are obviously roiled by this far more than they are the idea of a war. Yes, the Fed has no understanding of geopolitics, or ‘Call of Duty’, and talks about ‘Duty of Care’ while not caring; but its true mission is ‘Duty of Puts’. Stocks over hegemony, obviously – for now. How much explodes first though?

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL//COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

AUSTRALIA

*  *  *

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.1339 UP .0010 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN EXCEPT ITALY  

USA/ YEN 114.47  DOWN  0.081 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3624  UP   0.0025

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 11.73 OR 0.33%

  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 15.07 PTS OR 0.06%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.02%   // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT ITALY 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I)EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN EXCEPT ITALY   

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG  CLOSED UP 15.07 OR  0.06%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.73  PTS OR 0.33%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.02%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 790.02 PTS OR 2.80%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1818.10

silver:$23.72-

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 95.61  DOWN 13  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.61% UP15  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.137% DOWN 1 AND 5/10   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.69%// UP 2   in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 1.35 UP 3    points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 66 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO -0.012% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.36% AND NOW ABOVE   THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1352  UP .0023    or 23 basis points

USA/Japan: 114.23 DOWN 0.326OR YEN UP 33  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3630 UP 31  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DWN 4 pts to 1.2501

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED UP)..6.3450  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.3480

TURKISH LIRA:  13.40  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.137

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.836% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.160  DOWN 3 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 95.75  UP 49   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

  Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 20.88 PTS OR 0.28%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 19.04 points or 0.12%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 27.44 PTS OR  0.38% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 3.50PTS OR .04%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 129.14 PTS OR 0.47%

WTI Oil price 87.20    12: EST

Brent Oil:  88.84  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:   76.41 THE CROSS LOWER BY  62 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 62  BASIS PTS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; -.012

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.1350 UP  .0022   OR 22 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3624 UP .0024 or UP 24 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 114.27 DOWN .283

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2488 DOWN .0009 (cdn dollar up 9 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 86.92

Brent: 88.13

USA 10 yr bond yield: 1.837 DOWN 4 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.145 DOWN 5  pts.

USA dollar vs Turkish lira: 13,38

usa dollar vs Russian rouble: 76.15 DOWN 89 basis pts.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 339.82 PTS OR 0.96%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 162.92 OR 1.07%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 23.58 UP 0.79 PTS

GLD/NYSE CLOSING PRICE $172.09 UP $2.70 OR 1.59%

SLV/NYSE CLOSING PRICE: $22.37//UP $.68 OR 3.14%

USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM

Bonds & Bullion Surge As Equity Purge Escalates, Nasdaq Enters Correction

Tyler Durden's PhotoBY TYLER DURDENWEDNESDAY, JAN 19, 2022 – 04:01 PM

Today’s market was brought to you by the number 1.90 (the exact reversal point of the 10Y Yield), and the words “sell the f**king rip” and “I love goooold…”

It was ugly again today in equity land despite every algo doing its best to ramp the shit out of stocks and ignite some momentum. Small Caps were clubbed like a baby seal every time they attempted to get their head above water. The last hour was a shitshow

Nasdaq entered correction territory today, closing down over 10% from the highs…

Source: Bloomberg

As value outperforms growth once again (outperformed by an impressive +750bps YTD)…

Source: Bloomberg

…we’re seeing a “relatively” predictable playbook at a sector level with Tech, Comm Srvc, Discretionary dragging markets lower as investors are leaning into the perceived ‘safety’ of Consumer Staples and Utilities…

Source: Bloomberg

The S&P and Dow closed below the 100DMA, Nasdaq below its 200DMA (and Russell 2000 continues to charge lower from its 200DMA)…

Small Caps are now actually lower on a Year-over-Year basis (down 4.2%) and just suffered a ‘death cross’ – the first since the spring of 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

Bank stocks were mixed today with MS bouncing back a little (BofA opened notably higher but reversed it all) as the rest of the sector continued to slide…

Source: Bloomberg

AAPL closed below its 50DMA for the first time since October…

Unprofitable tech stocks are now down a perfect 50% from their record high

Source: Bloomberg

“Most Shorted” Stocks are down over 30% from the Nov 2021 highs (and is now down on a YoY basis)…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Bund yield went positive for the first time since 2019…

Source: Bloomberg

Very strong 20Y auction helped push yields even lower on the day. The short-end underperformed with 2Y-1.5bps while the rest of the curve was down around 4-5bps…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y yields reversed perfectly today at 1.90% (TY $127)

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar extended yesterday’s reversal off the YTD unch line…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was extremely choppy today but ended lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold surged back above $1840 – recovering all the losses since Omicron and the Powell Pivot plunge…

Oil continued its march higher, with WTI topping $86  passing Oct 2021 highs to reach back to 2014 (after the Turkey pipeline explosion) ahead of tonight’s inventory data from API…

NatGas tumbled 6% today, testing back towards $4.00…

Finally, was today’s rotation from stocks into bonds prompted by this…

Source: Bloomberg

TINA is dead!

The big question is – Will Powell fold?

Source: Bloomberg

Judging by today’s dovish shift in Dec 2022 rate-expectations, traders are starting to bet on it

END

END

I)MORNING TRADING/AFTERNOON TRADING

Stocks Puke Overnight Gains, Tumble Back To Key Technical Support

WEDNESDAY, JAN 19, 2022 – 10:46 AM

US equity markets have given up all their overnight ramp gains with Small Caps back at the overnight lows (down 1% on the day). The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq are back to unchanged…

This has pushed all the majors back to or below key technical support levels…

The S&P and The Dow have both broken back below their 100DMA, Nasdaq is pushing further below its 200DMA

And as stocks puke, bonds and bullion are bid…

It appears the deleveraging is not over…

II)USA DATA

Renter Nation Strikes As Multifamily Units Spark Surge In US Housing Starts, Permits In December

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 19, 2022 – 08:42 AM

Despite rising rates, weakening sentiment, and Omicron anxiety, Housing Starts and Building Permits unexpectedly surged in December. Starts jumped 1.4% MoM (vs expectations of 1.7% drop) and Permits soared 9.1% MoM (crushing expectations of a modest 0.8% drop)…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 3rd straight month of increasing starts and permits and the biggest monthly jump in building permits since July 2020.

The total building permits for 2021 hit 1.873mm and starts rose to 1.702mm (the highest end of year print since 2006)…

Multifamily permits jumped to 675K SAAR in Dec, up from 563K, and the highest on record. Single family starts 1.172MM, down modestly from 1.199MM in November but not too far from all time highs of 1.315MM in Dec 2020

Multifamily starts surged from 461K to 524K SAAR, highest since Jan 2020 which was an all time high, and SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD…

The silver lining of all this – a surge in rental units in the pipeline with record multifamily (rental) housing permits, 2nd highest multifamily housing starts – should help reverse trend in record rents.

III)A USA COVID UPDATES.

end

iiiB) important USA economic stories for you tonight

end

iii)c USA inflation commentaries//LOG JAMS//

Michael Snyder on food shortages

(Michael Snyder)

Experts Are Warning That Empty Shelves And Food Shortages Are Going To Continue For Many Weeks To Come

TUESDAY, JAN 18, 2022 – 05:50 PM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse,

The term “return to normal” is being thrown around a lot these days, but will things ever truly return to the way that they were before the pandemic came along?  I don’t think so. 

From an economic standpoint, an extraordinary amount of lasting damage has been done over the past two years.  A seemingly endless list of major problems has thrown thousands upon thousands of critical supply chains into a complete and utter state of chaos, and this has resulted in some very painful shortages.  For quite a while, the mainstream media kept insisting that the shortages would soon be gone, but now they are being forced to admit the truth.  If you can believe it, NPR has even published a major story about the growing shortages in this country

No, you’re not imagining it. Some grocery store shelves are bare again, conjuring bad memories of spring 2020 for many.

Social media is rife with images of empty supermarket aisles and signs explaining the lack of available food and other items. Stores such as Aldi have apologized to customers for the shortages.

Nobody in the mainstream media ever imagined that the shortages would last this long.

For certain items such as computer chips, the duration of the shortages is now approaching two full years.

Of course fear of Omicron has made things even worse, and one expert interviewed by NPR suggested that supermarkets in the U.S. are now facing a “perfect storm”

“We’re really seeing the perfect storm,” Phil Lempert, editor of the website SupermarketGuru.com, told NPR.

Isn’t it strange how that term just seems to keep popping up all over the place?

One of the major issues that supermarkets on the east coast are currently facing is greatly increased shipping costs.

Many Americans don’t realize this, but much of the fresh produce that we enjoy is actually grown in a handful of western states.  In fact, “99 percent of walnuts, 97 percent of kiwis, 97 percent of plums, 95 percent of celery, 95 percent of garlic, 89 percent of cauliflower, 71 percent of spinach, and 69 percent of carrots” grown in the United States come from the state of California.  To get all of that produce to stores in the east has always been a major production, but today it has also become exceedingly expensive

Growers of perishable produce across the West Coast are paying nearly triple pre-pandemic trucking rates to ship things like lettuce and berries before they spoil. Shay Myers, CEO of Owyhee Produce, which grows onions, watermelons and asparagus along the border of Idaho and Oregon, said he has been holding off shipping onions to retail distributors until freight costs go down.

Myers said transportation disruptions in the last three weeks, caused by a lack of truck drivers and recent highway-blocking storms, have led to a doubling of freight costs for fruit and vegetable producers, on top of already-elevated pandemic prices. “We typically will ship, East Coast to West Coast – we used to do it for about $7,000,” he said. “Today it’s somewhere between $18,000 and $22,000.”

Unfortunately, the issues that are plaguing the industry are not going to be cleared up any time soon.

According to the CEO of Conagra Brands, supply chain issues will continue to be a huge headache for his company for at least the next month

Birds Eye frozen vegetables maker Conagra Brands’ CEO Sean Connolly told investors last week that supplies from its U.S. plants could be constrained for at least the next month due to Omicron-related absences.

And the CEO of Albertson’s is anticipating continued supply chain woes “over the next four to six weeks”

Vivek Sankaran, CEO of the grocery store chain Albertson’s, said in an earnings call that the company had been hoping to recover from recent supply issues but omicron “put a dent in that.”

“There are more supply challenges, and we would expect more supply challenges over the next four to six weeks,” Sankaran said on Tuesday.

Of course these corporate leaders are anticipating that the Omicron wave will eventually fade and operations will start getting back to normal as warmer weather comes along.

But in order to do that, they are going to have to find a lot more workers from somewhere.

According to another industry expert, the consumer-packaged goods industry in the United States “is missing around 120,000 workers” right now…

The situation is not expected to abate for at least a few more weeks, Katie Denis, vice president of communications and research at the Consumer Brands Association said, blaming the shortages on a scarcity of labor.

The consumer-packaged goods industry is missing around 120,000 workers out of which only 1,500 jobs were added last month, she said, while the National Grocer’s Association said that many of its grocery store members were operating with less than 50% of their workforce capacity.

So where are they going to find enough people to restore service to normal levels?

They can’t exactly resurrect those that have died over the past year.

Now that millions of workers have seemingly “disappeared” from the system, companies all over America are fiercely competing with one another for anyone that still has a pulse and is available.

So if the food industry wants to hire thousands upon thousands of new workers, they are going to have to radically raise wages.

And if they do that, we will be paying even more to fill up our carts at the grocery store.

Today, a full shopping cart full of food can run more than 300 dollars in many areas.

Will that figure soon reach 400 or 500 dollars?

And what happens if our supply chain problems persist for many months to come like analysts at Deutsche Bank are now projecting

‘For 2022, we expect supply pressures to likely linger for longer, perhaps until the second half of next year before gradually unwinding,’ Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a note last Tuesday.

But just like everyone else, the analysts at Deutsche Bank are also assuming that conditions will “return to normal” eventually.

It would be really nice if that actually happened, but as Wolf Richter has pointed out, grocery stores have desperately been trying to “return to normal” for 20 months

Grocery stores have been trying to stock up for 20 months now, to fill the holes and catch up with this historic surge in demand, but every time they make a little headway, new constraints and problems emerge, and they still don’t have enough inventory on hand to get over the hump, and they temporarily and sporadically run out of some items.

The elephant in the room that nobody really wants to talk about is the fact that our supply chains will never fully return to the way they were in 2019.

Too much has changed.

Yes, there will be a lot of ups and downs, but I actually believe that many of the problems that we are facing today will actually grow over time.

It took decades of incredibly bad decisions to get us to this point, and the gross incompetence being displayed by our leaders in Washington does not give me confidence that things will turn around any time soon.

The years ahead are not going to be pretty, and I would advise you to prepare accordingly.

*  *  *

It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

END

iv)swamp stories

KING REPORT/SWAMP STORIES

@disclosetv: Russia stock market (Moscow Exchange Index) down 6.5% in largest 24-hour plunge during the pandemic.   https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1483495669558128642
 
Psaki: “We believe we’re now at a stage where Russia could at any point launch an attack on Ukraine.”  https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1483492754000957446
 
@charliespiering: White House calls a 1:05 p.m. lid. No sign of Biden today. (Despite the war drums!)

The NY Fed: Due to technical difficulties, today’s Treasury outright purchase operation – scheduled for 10:10 AM in the 4.5-to-7-year sector for up to $6.025 billion – is being rescheduled. It is now scheduled to take place Wednesday, January 19, 2022 at 10:10 AM. Information on Treasury securities operations can be found on the New York Fed’s webpage. This does not impact any other operations scheduled for today… https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/treasury-securities
 
Goldman Plunges After Trading Revenue Miss
(Q4 revenue $12.6BN, Exp. $12.08BN), with EPS of $10.81 also coming in below expectations of $11.76. Total profit declined 13% to $3.94BN, even as revenues grew 8%. Still, this was a solid number in context: profit at JPMorgan fell 14% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, while profit at Citigroup fell 26%…  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-plunges-after-trading-revenue-miss
 
The Empire Manufacturing survey tumbled to -0.7 (contraction) from 31.9; 25 was consensus.

@MichaelPSenger: Billionaire venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya, major Democratic Party donor and part-owner of the Golden State Warriors: “Nobody cares about what’s happening to the Uyghurs, okay. Of all the things that I care about, it is below my line.”
https://twitter.com/MichaelPSenger/status/1483292278042947586
 
Golden State Warriors co-owner, Chamath Palihapitiya, sparks fury after saying “nobody cares” about China’s Uyghurs https://t.co/Pg0kBA7jHa
 
WHO says no evidence healthy children, adolescents need COVID-19 boosters http://reut.rs/33MvkNa
 
Schumer’s daughters work for Amazon, Facebook as he holds power over antitrust bill https://trib.al/BW0cw5D

@JackPosobiec: “Stop! No! Don’t!”: Ashli Babbitt Tried to Stop Attack on Capitol Speaker’s Lobby, Video Analysis Suggests.  Babbitt then climbed through the window to escape violent instigators, says husband. (‘Tis why Pelosi et al will NOT release all the videos!)
    Video shot by John Sullivan, also known as Jayden X, shows that Babbitt tried to stop the violence against the Speaker’s Lobby at least four times before she climbed into a broken window and was shot by U.S. Capitol Police Lt. Michael Byrd. At one point, she was so distressed at the violence, she was jumping up and down in frustration… 
    “About five minutes prior to her getting shot and killed, all of those officers, Officer Yetter and the other officers in the hall, the MPD cops, they were all joking with her and laughing with her,” Hansen said. “They were having conversations and joking and laughing. Then not even five minutes later, Michael Byrd comes and executes her.”…  https://www.theepochtimes.com/babbitt-tried-to-stop-attack-on-capitol-speakers-lobby-video-shows_4216934.html?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge
 
@politico: Ray Epps, a former Arizona Oath Keeper at the center of pro-Trump conspiracy theories related to Jan. 6., intends to sit for a transcribed interview with the select committee investigating the attack on the Capitol.  https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/18/ray-epps-jan-6-select-committee-527306
 
@ggreenwald: So, the definitive statements made by Adam Kinzinger (Trump-hating GOP Rep) swallowed by the media about how Ray Epps never worked with FBI were based not no sworn testimony but just “informal meetings” with the Committee, and the denial was confined just to FBI, not all government agencies? LOL.
 
@Bubblebathgirl: Why is Ray Epps testifying this Friday to the Jan 6 Committee instead of to Congress?
 
The MSM/Dem/GOPe January 6 narrative continues to collapse.  So, Team Pelosi is trying to euchre the public with Ray Epps’s testimony before Pelosi’s star chamber in a sham hearing.
 
Reps. Jerry McNerney (D, CA-09) and Jim Langevin (D, RI-02) announced their retirements.  28 House Democrats and 14 mostly ant-Trump House Republicans will not seek re-election.
 
The Biden effect: Support for GOP reaches its highest level since 1995
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10412847/Americans-likely-support-Republican-Party-Democratic-Party-survey-reveals.html
 
Joe Biden’s Jim Crow 2.0 tour collides with reality: Blacks strongly support voter ID
Biden’s decision to use the MLK holiday as a backdrop to push his voting bill exposed another rift: There isn’t even agreement in the late civil rights leader’s own family about the need for the legislation…
https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/bidens-jim-crow-20-tour-collides-reality-blacks-strongly-support-voter-id
 
White House press secretary Jen Psaki said President Biden “stands by everything he said” in his fiery Georgia speech last week that many criticized as divisive…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-stands-by-everything-he-said-georgia-speech-segregationists
 
@TomBevanRCP: Psaki just said Biden’s speech last week on voting rights, in which he compared those who disagree with him to Jefferson Davis, Bull Connor and George Wallace, as “not a partisan speech.”
 
Schumer starts Senate debate on Biden’s doomed voting rights legislation and calls Republicans’ opposition to the bill an ‘implicit endorsement of Trump’s big lie’ (Desperate times…)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10414343/Senators-return-debate-voting-rights-no-clear-path-forward.html
 
Anyone with a modicum of common sense and historic knowledge knows the Dems’ voting rights bill is about codifying methods that facilitate voter fraud.  The Dems know they face electoral disasters in the 2022 and 2024 elections; and their only hope is to execute another 2020 mail-in ballot scam with a bountiful ballot harvest.  If the GOPe had any guts, they would stridently and publicly proclaim this inconvenient truth. PS – If there was no cheating in the 2020 Election, why do Dems need this bill?
 
@TommyPigott: Biden promised rapid tests by the “beginning of January.” Psaki said today the website is still in the beta phase, and… even when launched, tests will take 10-12 days to ship…
 
@RNCResearch: Jen Psaki won’t say which administration officials attended a meeting on a proposal to provide free rapid tests for the winter surge or if Biden was briefed on the plan.
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1483499029086580747
 
Jen Psaki defends Biden’s refusal to release visitor logs from his Delaware homes after it was revealed he spent a QUARTER of his first year in office at them
‘Well, the president goes to Delaware because it’s his home. It’s also where his son and his former wife are buried, and it’s a place that is obviously close to his heart. A lot of presidents go visit their home when they are president,’ Psaki said..  (If true, Joe should not have run for president.)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10414667/Biden-spent-QUARTER-365-days-office-Delaware-homes.html
 
@Jusrangers: (Maskless) Mayor Adams is having fun with 20,000 maskless friends at Knicks game today.  Tomorrow he will force 3-year-olds to mask for speech therapy and Kindergartners to mask for recess outdoors.  Adult recreation once again takes precedence over children’s developmental needs.
https://twitter.com/Jusrangers/status/1483146800445988871
 
Texas synagogue hostage taker Malik Faisal Akram’s past raises questions about how he was allowed into US  http

Let us close out tonight with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter interviewing Dr Paul Craig Roberts…

America is Very Unstable – Dr. Paul Craig Roberts

By Greg Hunter On January 19, 2022 In Political Analysis 39 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 

International award-winning journalist and former Assistant Treasury Secretary Dr. Paul Craig Roberts (PCR) says data shows between CV19 policies and the policies surrounding Russia that “America is very unstable.”  Let’s start with the NATO talks with Russia over Ukraine that broke down in a diplomatic disaster last week.  There is the real possibility of nuclear war with Russia.  Dr. PCR explains, “The West is continually antagonizing Russia (PCR is referring primarily to Ukraine, Georgia and Kazakhstan).  This will eventually lead to some kind of conflict.  If it is a conventional war, the West does not have a chance—no chance whatsoever.  So, what would Washington do when it’s faced with a massive defeat?  It would save face by resorting to nukes.  That’s the way Washington is.  So, it’s very dangerous.  It’s extremely dangerous to make the Russians feel threatened, and when they tell you (Washington D.C) that, you ignore it.  You don’t hear, and you make them feel more threatened. . . . This is just madness, and it opens up the prospects of military confrontation.  I guarantee you that the Russians are not going to allow NATO to take in Ukraine and Georgia.  They simply will not, and it cannot be done. . . . We are not prepared for military confrontation with Russia and much less with Russia and China.”  Last week, the Russian government publicly said it thought the Biden Administration was having a “nervous breakdown,” which was intended as a huge insult.

The other huge problem is the CV19 policies with shutdowns and coerced experimental injections.  Dr. PCR says, “The whole Covid thing is a hoax.  It’s all been for nothing, and it’s unnecessary, but they are sticking with it.  They are sticking with it despite the fact that it is now conclusively proven that what the vaccine does is turn your own immune system into a weapon against your own body.  The vaccine causes your immune system to attack your own vital organs.  That’s why you have these vaccine injuries and deaths, and it does not protect you from Covid. . . . Yet, they still want to continue it.  It’s another form of insanity.”

The biggest driver of a troubled economy and spiking inflation is none other than the Covid policies.  Dr. PCR points out, “The inflation is really reflecting the lockdowns and cessation of supply. . . . All of a sudden you have got shortages everywhere.  How do people get things?  You bid for it.  You have to outbid . . . You can see the whole Covid policy is shrinking the ability of the economy to produce.  That’s the problem.”

Dr. PCR sees a “collapse of society” because the data is showing many will get sick or die because of the dangerous injections.

Dr. PCR also says countries are turning away from the U.S. dollar and buying gold.  That is very dollar negative, and it is not going to tame inflation–just the opposite.

What does Dr. PCR see in the political future for the Democrats and the Biden Administration?  Dr. PCR says, “The Democrats have blown it, but if they can get away with blaming the unvaccinated for all the problems . . . they may be shielded.  Democrats may also be shielded if they can force Russia to take some sort of decisive action.  Then everybody has to rally around the President. . . . It’s very, very unstable, and there are reasons to leave the dollar if inflation is high.”

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with award-winning journalist Dr. Paul Craig Roberts 1.19.22  (There is much more in the 46 min. interview.)

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After the Interview:

To see Dr. PCR on a regular basis, go to PaulCraigRoberts.org.  All the articles are free, and Dr. PCR is a prolific writer.

Harvey America is Very Unstable – Dr. Paul Craig Roberts

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Greg Hunter via aweber.com 1:07 AM (6 hours ago)
to Harvey

America is Very Unstable – Dr. Paul Craig Roberts | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog https://usawatchdog.com/america-is-very-unstable-dr-paul-craig-roberts/

I will see you on THURSDAY night/

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