JAN 18//GOLD PRICE DOWN $3.25 TO $1812.60 BUT SILVER SHINES UP 51 CENTS TO $23.43//GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY RISES TO 14.93 TONNES HAVING WITNESSED A MASSIVE 80,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP//SILVER ALSO HAS A 20,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//COVID COMMENTARIES/VACCINE MANDATES/IVERMECTIN UPDATE/VACCINE MANDATE: DJOKO DEPORTED//CANADA GOVERNMENT INITIATIES ITS VACCINE MANDATE FOR TRUCKERS WITH THE USA SET TO BEGIN THAT MANDATE ON JAN 24: FOR CANADA THIS IS DEADLY FOR ITS FOOD SUPPLY AND IN THE USA DEADLY FOR LACK OF COMMODITIES//

JAN 17/2022/

January 13, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment ·Edit

GOLD; DOWN $3.25 to $1812.60


SILVER: $23.43 UP 51 CENTS

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD: 1814.20.. 

SILVER: $23.51

Bitcoin:  morning price: 41,775 down 226

Bitcoin: afternoon price: 41,778 down 223

Platinum price: closing up $13.80 to $986.70

Palladium price; closing up  $22.35  at $1902,90

END

end

DONATE

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

comex notices//JPMorgan  notices filed  COMEX//NOTICES FILED 0/0

MONTH TO DATE: 3,921


NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN. CONTRACT: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR 00 OZ  (0.00  TONNES)

total notices so far:  3921 contracts for 392,100 oz (12.195 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES:

11 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  55,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 2347  :  for 11,735,000  oz

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS): NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

CLOSING INVENTORY: 976.21 TONNES/

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 51 CENTS:/:

TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:  2 WITHDRAWALS OF A) 1.11MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//

B) 1.424 MILLION OZ

AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY SLV/ TONIGHT: 527.246 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI  FELL BY A  STRONG 1149 CONTRACTS TO 145,793  AND RESTS FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPANIED WITH THE $0.21 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.21) AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT SOME SILVER LONGS  AS WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 779 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES .

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A  SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A HUGE INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 10.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 25,000 OZ QUEUE. JUMP//NEW STANDING 13.640 MILLION OZ         V)    STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS.

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  -19

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 11 days, total  contracts: :  6234 contracts or 31.170 million oz  OR 2.833 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (566 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 6234 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 31.170 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 8 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

RESULT: WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1149 WITH OUR  21 CENT LOSS SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF  370 CONTRACTS( 370 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY:/ AS WELL AS TODAY /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN OF 10.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 25,000 QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 13.640, MILLION OZ//  .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 779 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 3.895 MILLION OZ//

WE HAD 11 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  55,000 OZ

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD 4,180 TO 536,051, AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -3706  CONTRACTS

.

THE GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR  LOSS IN PRICE OF $5.05//COMEX GOLD TRADING/FRIDAY/.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALLED A STRONG SIZED 5724 CONTRACTS… 

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN AT 3.5614 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 80,800 OZ QUEUE. JUMP//NEW STANDING: 14.930 TONNES      

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  LOSS IN PRICE OF $5.05 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD  A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 5724  OI CONTRACTS (17.80 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALLED A SMALL SIZED  1574 CONTRACTS:

FOR FEB 1574  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 1574 

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 539,737.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A  STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5,724, WITH 7,886 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1574 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5724 CONTRACTS OR 17.80TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1574) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (4,180): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 5,724 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN. AT 3.7262 TONNES//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 80,800 OZ QUEUE. JUMP.//NEW STANDING 14.93 TONNES  3)ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,4)  STRONG SIZED COMEX OI. GAIN 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

JAN

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN : 26,908 CONTRACTS OR 2,690,800 oz OR 83.69  TONNES (11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2466 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 83.69 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  83.69/3550 x 100% TONNES  2.35% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE 

JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           145.12 TONNES//INITIAL ISSUANCE// 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A  STRONG SIZED 1149 CONTRACTS TO 145,727  AND FURTHER FORM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  4 1/2 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 370 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 370  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  370 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1083 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 370 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 779 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3.895 MILLION  OZ, 

OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.21 LOSS IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 28.25 PTS OR 0.80%      //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 105.25 PTS OR 0.43% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 76.27 PTS OR 0.27%      //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.04%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.3515    /Oil UP TO 84.95 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 87.16 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED     //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN  AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3515. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3552: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN AND OFF SHORE TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR

A)NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 4180 CONTRACTS  AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS GOOD COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  LOSS OF $5.05 IN GOLD PRICING FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP (1574 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. LOOKS LIKE OUR BANKERS ARE FINALLY BAILING OUT

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1574 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  DEC  :  0  & FEB. 1574 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1574 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED 5,724 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1574 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 4180  CONTRACTS..

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN   (14.93),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $5.05)

BUT THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 17.80 TONNES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN (14.93 TONNES)…

WE HAD – 3706 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5724 CONTRACTS OR 572,400 OZ OR 17.80 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 451,895 strong///4 days

Confirmed volume yesterday: 206,619 contracts  poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JAN ’22 COMEX GOLD 

JAN 18


COMEX GOLD 

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 35,310.730 ozBrinksHSBCincludes 1086 kilobars Brinks 
                                                                                                                             
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznilOZ            
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz      nil                                                
No of oz served (contracts) today0  notice(s)nil OZ0 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)879 contracts  87900 oz 2.734 TONNES  
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month3921 notices 3,92,100 OZ12,195 TONNES  
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz
Gold

For today:

No dealer deposit 0

No dealer withdrawal 0

0 customer deposit

2 customer withdrawals

i) Out of Brinks:  34,915.980 oz (1086 kilobars)

ii) Out of HSBC: 394.75 oz 

ADJUSTMENTS: 1 Dealer to customer//Brinks

i) 96.45 oz (3 kilobars)

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY.

For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 879 stand for JANUARY GAINING 806 contracts.  We had 2 notices filed on FRIDAY, so we GAINED 808 contracts or an additional 80,800 oz will stand for

gold in this very non active delivery month of January. The resulting queue jump equates to 2.513 tonnes, 

FEBRUARY LOST 8354 CONTRACTS TO 233,083

March GAINED 12 contracts to stand at 2334..

We had 0 notice(s) filed today for 200  oz FOR THE JAN 2022 CONTRACT MONTH

I AM PRETTY SURE THAT THE HUGE LOSS OF CONTRACTS ON THURSDAY WAS DUE ONLY TO A FAILED RAID ATTEMPT USING SPREADER CONTRACTS.


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and  0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0  notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3921) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JAN: 879 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  0 x 100 oz per contract equals 480,000 OZ  OR 14.930 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of JAN. (numbers corrected from yesterday) 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month:

No of notices filed so far (3921) x 100 oz+   (879)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0} x 100 oz} which equals 399,200 oz standing OR 14.93 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of JAN. 

We GAINED A HUGE 808 contracts or an additional  80,800 oz of gold will stand for metal on this side of the pond.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  14.930 TONNES  (HUGE FOR A JANUARY DELIVERY MONTH

IF THIS HOLDS TO THE END OF THE MONTH, THIS WILL BE THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED GOLD STANDING FOR A JANUARY, GENERALLY A VERY POOR DELIVERY MONTH.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

206,468.649, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  6.42 TONNES

174,041.813 PLEDGED  MANFRA 5.41 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690

288,481,604, oz  JPM No 2  8.97 TONNES

698,821.330 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/27,96 TONNES

12,244.444 oz International Delaware:  0..3808 tonne

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold:  1,653,017.372oz                                     51.42 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIZ GOLD AT THE COMEX: 33,581,836.167 OZ (1044.54 TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 16,0001,295.645 OZ (497.70 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,580,540.519 OZ  (546.82 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,927,523.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  495.41 tonnes

END

JANUARY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//JAN 18

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory747m696.01  oz DelawareCNT
                                                                                                                        
Deposits to the Dealer InventorynilOZ                   
Deposits to the Customer Inventory599,818.440 ozCNT                                                                                   
No of oz served today (contracts)11 CONTRACT(S)55,000  OZ) 
No of oz to be served (notices)380 contracts (1,900,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)2347 contracts 11,735,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposits into the dealer

total dealer deposits:  nil       oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 1 deposits

i)Into CNT:  599,818.440 oz

total:  599,818.440 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 184.922 million oz/353.131 million =52.36% of comex 

ii) Comex withdrawals: 2

a) Out of CNT 745,696.630 oz

b) Out of Delaware; 1999.39 oz

total withdrawal 747,696.01 oz

we had 0 adjustment

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 81.163 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 353.131 MILLION OZ

TOTAL NO OF CONTRACTS SERVED UPON THIS MONTH: 2347 CONTRACTS FOR 11,735,000 OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JANUARY

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY: 11 NOTICES OR 55,000 OZ

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JAN//2022 OI: 391 CONTRACTS GAINING 4 contracts on the day

We had 0 notices filed for FRIDAY so we GAINED 4 contracts or 20,000 additional oz will  stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of January.

FOR FEB WE HAD A LOSS OF 10 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 692

FOR MARCH WE HAD A LOSS OF 1338 CONTRACTS UP TO 112,573 CONTRACTS.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 11 for 55,000 oz

Comex volumes: 100,696// est. volume today (4 days/sat, sun mon, tues)

Comex volume: confirmed YESTERDAY: 53,745 contracts (poor)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  2347 x 5,000 oz =. 11,735,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN (391) and the number of notices served upon today 11 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JAN./2021 contract month: 2347 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN (391)  – number of notices served upon today (11) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month equates 13,635,000 oz. .

We GAINED 4 contracts or an additional 20,000

 oz will stand for delivery on this side of the pond.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

GLD

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 14/ WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $8.65//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $19.25/A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.08 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $8.15//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWLA OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 978.83 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $35.30//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.99 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $10.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.31 TONNES

Jan 4/WITH GOLD UP $14.00//A HUGE CHANGE OF 4.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.31 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $14.05 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES

DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $7.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES

DEC 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.63 TONNES 

DEC 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.63 TONNES.

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $9.85 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.94 TONNES FROM THE GLD/// INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.63 TONNES

DEC 22/WITH GOLD UP $12.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 978.57 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.05 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 978.57 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.65 TODAY; A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.37 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.20 TONNES

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $7.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.20 TONNES

DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $33.05TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.4 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT: 977.20 TONNES

DEC15/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.80 TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.60 TONNES.

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

DEC 10.WITH GOLD UP $7.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

DEC 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64.

DEC 8/WITH GOLD UP $5.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

DEC 7/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 TODAY; A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

DEC 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 986.17 TONNES//

CLOSING INVENTORY: 976.21 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

SLV.

JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 WITHDRAWALS OF 1.11 MILLION OZ AND 1.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 527.246 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.780 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 832,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.780 MILLION OZ

JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//

JAN 11/WITH SILVER  UP 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ/.

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//.

JAN 7/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//.

JAN 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL PF 226,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ?/

JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.838 MILLION OZ//

JAN 4/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.838 MILLION OZ//

JAN 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.219 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.838 MILLION OZ//

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.057 MILLION OZ//

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.057 MILLION OZ//

DEC30/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.624 MILLILON OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.057 MILLION OZ//

DEC 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681 MILLION OZ/

DEC 28/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.682 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681 MILLION OZ//

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.202 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681 MILLION OZ//

DEC 22/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.202 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 538.883 MILLION OZ/

DEC 21/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.728 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.085 MILLION OZ

DEC 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 538.282 MILLION OZ

DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 538.282 MILLION OZ//

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 91 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.33 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 538.282 MILLION OZ

DEC  15WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.48 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.612 MILLION OZ

DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.092 MILLION OZ

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.561 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.092 MILLION OZ//

DEC 10.WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.653 MILLION OZ..

DEC 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.653 MILLION OZ/

DEC 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.693 MILLION OZ///

DEC 7/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.693 MILLION OZ..

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.110 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.693 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY:  527.246 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: The Year Of Living Dangerously

TUESDAY, JAN 18, 2022 – 10:58 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

With 2021 now in the rear-view mirror, I believe that future financial historians may regard it as the year of peak speculation.

While the history of American markets is littered with periods of irrational exuberance, none of those episodes can really match the current market for outright delusion and the blatant disregard for basic investment discipline. 

Where to begin?

It was the year that brought us “meme stocks,” companies whose share prices skyrocketed precisely because their business prospects were inarguably bleak. It was the year that launched thousands of new cryptocurrencies, more than quintupling the market capitalization of these new “assets,” (from $578 billion in November 2020 to more than $3 trillion a year later). Although few people can explain, or understand, the utility and features of these new currencies, the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index nevertheless rose by more than 160% over the course of the year.   

It was the year that brought us non-fungible tokens, otherwise known as NFTs, virtual assets that don’t exist in the real world but are discussed as if they were precious artifacts brought back from the future. According to data from DappRadar, NFTs sales in the third quarter alone were $10.7 billion, eight times the pace in the second quarter of the year. In 2021, people frequently paid thousands of dollars for virtual sneakers, and someone paid $450,000 to acquire a virtual piece of property in the “Snoopverse,” a digital world created by rapper Snoop Dogg. 

It was a year that saw more than 1,000 companies (a record) offer initial public offerings (IPOs) on U.S. stock exchanges, more than four times the volume-averaged over the last decade.  These newly public companies raised a record $315 billion from investors. Never before has that total surpassed $200 billion. Even more unusual was that more than half of those IPOs were special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, black box investments that are simply stock ticker symbols in search of unproven businesses. Investors didn’t even know what they were buying, but they just bought anyway.  

It was the year of record share buybacks, in which US companies bought nearly one quarter trillion dollars of their own stock in just the third quarter. It was a year of record mergers and acquisition activity, with global deal flow topping $5 trillion for the first time.

But apart from gains made in these esoteric asset classes, the most important area of peak speculation may have been in the broader stock market. The S&P 500 added 26.9% in 2021, which is more than double the average return over the past 10 years. While excellent, the results were by no means a record (there have been 11 years since the Great Depression in which the S&P delivered better returns); it is very unusual for stocks to do so well when they are not rebounding from significant previous declines.    

The degree of the speculative mania can be seen in the ever-expanding price-to-earnings ratio that stocks currently enjoy. Most investors agree that the best way to judge relative stock valuations is to look at Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings (CAPE) ratio, which measures the average of adjusted earnings over a period of 10 years. This figure generally filters out short-term earnings and volatility to give a more reliable picture. The mean CAPE ratio for stocks (which goes back well over 100 years) is 16.9 (through 1/2021). The ratio currently stands at 38.87, as of 1/10/22. In the history of the market, there has only been one period, the eighteen months between December of 1998 and September of 2000 (a period now referred to as the dot-com bubble) when CAPE ratios were higher than they are now. We know how that ended.  But the extreme valuations of the dot-com bubble were achieved on top of a booming economy and historically high consumer confidence. That optimism is nowhere in view today.  

After the dot-com bubble burst, the S&P 500 lost nearly half of its value and CAPE ratios contracted by almost 50%, from 43.5 in April of 2000 to 21.9 in October of 2002. Those declines paved the way for above-trend gains from 2003-2007. When the Great Recession hit in 2007, stocks declined by 56% (between October 2007 and March 2009) and CAPE ratios declined by more than 50%, from 27.9 in May of 2007 to 13.3 in March 2009. These declines were also followed by a historic bounce back.  

But the great results in 2021 were different in nature.  In 2020, during one of the largest economic contractions in U.S. history, in many ways worse than the dot-com implosion and the Financial Crisis of 2008, stocks rose 16%. So, in 2021 there were no losses to recoup.  It was all gravy on top of gravy. By the end of 2021, stocks had risen more than 40% from pre-Covid levels. 

But peak speculation was not confined to Wall Street. The good times extended to Main Street, where, in November 2021, U.S. home prices had increased 18% annually, the largest increase since the end of WW II, and 4 percentage points faster than in any year during the real estate bubble of 2004-2007. 

So, it was a great year to own just about everything.

The question is, what is so extraordinarily good about an economy that justifies these broad increases? The answer, of course, is nothing. While GDP growth averaged more than 6% in the first half of 2021 (which is not particularly impressive given the 3.5% contraction in 2020), economists were surprised by the sharp deceleration to 2.2% annualized in the third quarter. They have also been surprised by the failure of workers to rejoin the labor force.  

A study published in Fortune magazine in October 2021 found that among Fortune 1000 companies, 73% of CEOs anticipate the work shortage will disrupt their businesses over the next 12 months. The exodus of workers has been dubbed “the great resignation.”  

Increases in asset prices in the current environment should be seen as strictly a monetary, not an economic, phenomenon. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve has added more than $5 trillion in newly created dollars into the economy. And while the Fed has been engaging in this type of monetary magic for more than a century, its efforts of the past two years have dwarfed prior episodes. In 2020 alone, the Federal Reserve added more than $3 trillion to its balance sheet, almost double the record previously set during the Great Recession. And while the balance sheet expanded by “only” $1.7 trillion in 2021 (still more than any other year in history, besides 2020, and a record for a year not in recession)Keynesian theory holds that monetary expansions should happen only in a recession, and contraction should occur in periods of growth. Keynes warned that monetary expansion during periods of growth would be doubly distortive. And that’s exactly what happened.  

But unlike prior episodes of Fed activism, money creation in 2021 did not just push up asset prices. Last year, inflation (as measured by the CPI), came in at 7%, the biggest gain since 1982. (If we measured the price increases using the same methods used back in 1982, it’s likely inflation could be closer to 15%).  

In the last few months, the Fed has finally had to admit that the inflation it had been describing as “transient” for more than a year was, in fact, far more persistent. As a result, it has promised that it will act decisively to bring inflation under control. But few economists and investors appreciate just how difficult and destructive that process would be given how deeply dependent the economy, financial markets, and the Federal Government are on ultra-low interest rates.  

In order to slow, and ultimately reverse inflationary pressure, the economic textbooks say that the Fed should deliver interest rates ABOVE the rate of inflation. Such a rate would discourage borrowing and lending, encourage savings, reduce demand, and bring down inflation. That’s what Paul Volcker did in 1980, when he raised the Fed Funds rate to nearly 20%, when inflation was running at 13.5%. Could anyone imagine what our economy would look like with 7% interest rates, let alone 10% or higher? At 7% Fed Funds rate, corporate bond and home mortgage rates would be at least 8%, if not higher.  Clearly, rates like that would sharply impact stock and home prices. An overly inflated stock market would fall, perhaps steeply, and home prices would drop as financing costs increased from current low levels. Such asset price declines could push the economy into a depression that the Fed would have to fight with stimulative monetary policy.    

Even worse might be the impact on the Federal budget. Even if just half of the $30 trillion National Debt had to be refinanced at 7% over the course of a year, the costs would add $900 billion in extra annual interest every year to the Federal budget. That’s almost as large as the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill that was passed in 2021, the cost of which will be spread over many years.  Financing just the extra interest might require sizable cuts to entitlements and large middle-class tax increases, even as the economy may be mired in deep recession. No one at the Fed will be willing to deliver that kind of tough love.

Instead, they are hoping that one percent interest rates, arrived at the end of this year, will do the trick. I would argue that that is wishful thinking in the extreme. In fact, a 1% Fed Funds rate, when inflation was much lower than it is now, was the highly accommodative rate the Fed used to stimulate the economy after the 2008 Financial Crisis.  How can that same rate now be considered tight enough to fight off the highest inflation in 30 years? Yet even the possibility of such a minimal reduction in stimulus is enough to spook Wall Street.  

On Wednesday, the release of the Fed minutes from its December meeting revealed to investors that the Central Bank is preparing fully to end its quantitative easing bond purchases, and possibly deliver its first quarter-point rate increase by March of this year. It also raised the possibility of raising rates as much as four times (for a total of 1% percent) this calendar year, and even possibly conducting active operations to reduce the size of its $8.8 trillion dollar balance sheet. This news helped push the Dow Jones average down 600 points.   

But such moves by the Fed, if it is even able to implement them, will be a fraction of what would be needed to bring inflation back down to the Fed’s 2% target. And what exactly will the Fed do if its loose policies start to take a bite out of the stock market or the economy as they did in late 2018? At that point, the Fed’s commitment to interest rate normalization and balance sheet reduction, which had pushed yields on 10-year Treasury notes above 2.5% for the first time since 2011, ran smack into the reality of a bear market in stocks and a slowing economy. After less than six weeks of a market sell-off, the Fed caved completely. As it always has over the past 40 years, the bankers at the Fed, who are really just politicians in disguise, chose short-term expediency over long-term health. By January 2019, all of the Fed’s carefully telegraphed plans of monetary discipline had been totally abandoned.  

Three years later, after the hollowing out of the Covid economy and the massive stimulus needed to keep it inflated, the Fed faces a far higher mountain, with far greater cliffs. My guess is it will fold like a lawn chair at the first sign of real trouble.  

At that point, investors should finally realize that the Fed is powerless to control inflation. If another recession comes along, the size of the stimulus needed to combat it will rise exponentially. The current $8.8 trillion dollar balance sheet may become $20 trillion, with no end in sight. If investors had any sense at that point, they might consider abandoning the dollar, and refuse to buy Treasury debt that pays 5% or more below the rate of inflation. If we are seeing 7% inflation with a rising dollar, imagine how high it could be if the dollar were falling, particularly as we continue down the road of record trade deficits. (The shrinking labor force means that we import an even larger percentage of the goods we consume, making us even more vulnerable to rising import costs).  

In other words, the Fed has painted itself into a corner, and the room for maneuver is getting smaller and smaller, even as the stakes are getting higher and higher. 

In the meantime, those lucky enough to own assets are enjoying one more spin on the merry-go-round.  Only about a week into 2022, shares of Gamestop, the poster child of the meme stock craze, soared when the company announced that it was jumping into the NFT business. Meme stocks and NFTs in one convenient ticker. All the pretty horses!


2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,James  RICKARDS

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

My goodness: these 3 firms gots $8 trillion in emergency fed loans in Q4 2019 

(Pam and Russ Martens/GATA)

Pam and Russ Martens: Nomura, JPM, Goldman Sachs got $8 trillion in emergency Fed loans in Q4 2019

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-01-17 10:52 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Monday, January 17, 2022

The Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010 ordered the Government Accountability Office, an investigative body for Congress, to audit the Fed’s alphabet soup of emergency lending programs conducted during and after the 2008 financial crisis. The GAO found that a cumulative $16.1 trillion had been pumped out to Wall Street firms by the Fed — at super-cheap interest rates. The GAO provided data for the peak amounts outstanding and also a cumulative total.

Why is a cumulative total essential and relevant?

Because one institution in 2008, Citigroup, was insolvent for much of the time the Fed was flooding it with cheap loans. Under law, the Fed is not allowed to make loans to an insolvent institution.

And when an insolvent institution is getting loans rolled over and over by the Fed for a span of two and a half years, at interest rates frequently below 1% when the market wouldn’t loan it money at even double-digit interest rates, it’s highly relevant to know the cumulative tally of just how much Citigroup got from the Fed. 

According to the GAO, that tally came to $2.5 trillion for just some of these Fed loan programs. 

The academic scholars that compiled the Fed’s loans during the financial crisis for the Levy Economics Institute also provided cumulative tallies. Their tally, which included additional Fed bailout programs not included by the GAO, came to $29 trillion. …

… For the remainder of the report:

END

This was quite a find: an early gold piece from Henry iii

(London Telegraph//GATA)

Treasure hunter strikes gold with discovery of 700-year-old Henry III coin

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-01-16 19:54 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Daniel Capurro
The Telegraph, London
Sunday, January 16, 2022

A detectorist has uncovered just the eighth known example of England’s “first gold coinage,” with the piece expected to sell at auction for nea:rly half a million pounds.

The Henry III coin, minted in 1257, owes its value both to its rarity and the unique portrait of the monarch on its obverse side.

The coin carries a pre-sale estimate of L400,000 but past examples have sold for more than L500,000. It is the first of its kind found in more than 260 years.

It was found by an anonymous treasure hunter on his first detecting trip in a decade, near Hemyock, Devon.

The finder put it on Facebook, not knowing its true value before it was spotted by an expert.

Gregory Edmund, of the auctioneer Spink, told The Telegraph he spotted the post and “immediately told the finder to take it down because I said you’re going to be inundated with every man and his dog to try to buy this off you for a fraction of what it’s worth/” …

… For the remainder of the report and photos of the coin:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/16/treasure-hunter-strikes-gold-discovery-700-year-old-henry-iii/

END

Americans piling into inflation linked bonds. They expect the USA to enter its hyperinflation phase

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Americans stampede into inflation-linked bonds, smashing records

Submitted by admin on Sat, 2022-01-15 10:53 Section: Daily Dispatches

But purchases are limited to $10,000 per year per person. Allowing unlimited purchases would defeat the government’s policy of “financial represssion.”

* * *

By Elizabeth Stanton
Bloomberg News
Friday, January 14, 2022

American savers piled into inflation-protected savings bonds, scooping up more in December alone than they had for any full previous year, as consumer prices soared across the U.S. 

The government sold $2.78 billion of Series I savings bonds, which pay a fixed interest rate plus inflation, in the month after selling $1.07 billion of the bonds in November, according to Treasury Department data.

The December figure is $1 billion more than the previous full-year record, which came in 2018, when a jump in oil prices drove inflation toward 3%. Annual inflation is running now at a four-decade high of 7%, the result of booming consumer demand and supply-chain snarls sparked by the pandemic. 

The government began selling Series I bonds in 1998. The fixed interest rate, which is set for new bonds every six months, has been 0% since May 2020. That has done little to discourage buyers, though, because the inflation component of the bonds, which also resets twice a year, is currently paying out an annual rate of 7.12%.

Demand, in fact, would be up even more if it weren’t for the hard cap the government puts on on-line purchases of the securities  — $10,000 per person per year. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-14/demand-explodes-for-inflation-protected-savings-bonds-in-u-s

* * *

4.OTHER GOLD STORIES

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES/

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 6.3515

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3552

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 105.25 PTS OR 0.43%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 76.27 PTS OR 0.27%

3. Europe stocks  ALL RED   

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  95.40/Euro FALLS TO 1.1391-

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.152/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 114.56/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 84.95 and Brent: 87.16-

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED DOWN//  OFF- SHORE  DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.0.021%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 1.31% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 0.66%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.34: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.63

3k Gold at $1811.80 silver at: 22.94   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; Russian rouble UP 19/100 in roubles/dollar AT 76.52

3m oil into the 84 dollar handle for WTI and 87 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 114.56 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9143– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0413 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.810 UP 2 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.137 UP 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 13.55

Futures Tumble As Global Bond Yields Surge

 TUESDAY, JAN 18, 2022 – 07:34 AM

Yesterday when US stock markets were closed but both bond and equity futures were trading, we pointed out that 10Y Treasury futures implied a yield of over 1.80%, a number which was the highest in years and which we warned would cause headaches for stock traders when the US reopened fully on Tuesday. And sure enough, with 10Y yields surging as high as 1.8536% overnight and 2Y yields jumping to 1.05% (up a whopping 15bps from 0.90% last Friday)…

…. futures are getting hammered this morning, with emini S&P futures down 48 points or over 1% and just above 4,600, while Nasdaq futures were getting hammered again, sliding 1.62% or 254 points. The dollar rose and Brent oil touched $88/bbl, the highest price since 2014.

Global stocks have had a turbulent start to the year as investors shift out of more expensive and rates-sensitive sectors such as technology into cheaper, so-called value shares. Market participants are now waiting for the earnings season to gauge whether companies can continue delivering robust profits despite higher costs and challenges from omicron.

“With rates biased higher over the coming months, investors should be prepared for parts of the tech sector to again be challenged,” Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors, wrote in a note to investors. “Although rising bond yields are challenging the entire tech sector, investors must distinguish between profitless names that are a long way from demonstrating healthy earning power and mega-cap tech firms that can defend their margins.”

Fed rate hikes are in focus as premium builds in front-end yields – the move was driven by lots of jawboning after last week JPM’s Dimon flagged potential for 7 Fed rate increases, while over the weekend billionaire investor Ackman said U.S. central bank is losing inflation battle and needs to raise 50bps in March to “restore its credibility.”

Intel Corp., Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. were among the biggest declines in U.S. premarket trading. Bank of America Corp.’s January global fund manager survey showed that net allocation to the tech sector fell 20% month-over-month to 1%, the lowest since 2008, though they expect inflation to fall this year and are placing record bets on a boom in both commodities and stocks overall. Other notable premarket movers:

  • Apple (AAPL US) -1.9%, shrugging off a PT raise at Deutsche Bank; Tesla (TSLA US) -3.2%, Microsoft (MSFT US) -2.2%.
  • Snowflake (SNOW US) raised to outperform at William Blair following the software solutions provider’s better than expected growth in 2021 and a pullback in the stock. Shares down 0.9% in premarket.
  • Amazon.com (AMZN US) has made a last-minute reversal to its plan to ban the use of Visa’s credit cards issued in the U.K. Shares down 2% in premarket.
  • Under Armour (UAA US) “represents a healthy brand thrown out with the industry bath water,” with recent selloff making the company’s risk/reward “particularly compelling,” BMO says, upgrading to outperform. Shares up 0.7% in premarket.

Tech also led the retreat in Europe, where equities traded poorly with most indexes close to, or through last Friday’s lows. Euro Stoxx 50 drops as much as 1.6%, FTSE 100 and IBEX fare marginally better. Weakness is most pronounced in tech and travel stocks with only energy and telecoms holding in the green.

In rates, as noted above, Treasuries slumped across the curve in bear-flattening moves as traders intensified bets the Fed will hike early and often. The largest moves were in the short end where two-year yields soared above 1% for the first time since 2020 on increased speculation of a Federal Reserve rate hike in March.

Treasury yields gapped higher led by front end when trading resumed after Monday’s US holiday as Fed rate-hike expectations went into overdrive. Swaps fully price in an initial hike in March and a total of four this year.  Treasury two-year yield climb 7bps to 1.04%, touches 1.06%, adding to Friday’s 7bp jump. Two-year hits 1.06%, and 10-year reaches 1.85% — both are highest seen since before pandemic struck. Though off session highs, yields remained cheaper by more than 6bp in 2-year sector, which reached 1.056% during Asia session, flattening 2s10s curve by 3bp on the day; 10-year yields around 1.82%, cheaper by 3.6bp with comparable bunds and gilts outperforming by 2.5bp to 3bp. Bear-flattening Treasuries move briefly pushed 5s30s spread under 50bp, flattest since March 2020; it remains tighter by ~4bp on the day at ~52bp.

Australia’s 3-year bond yield climbed to the highest since April 2019 as investors forecast global tightening moves to force the RBA to abandon its plans to hold record-low rates until at least 2023. German 10Y Bunds rose as high as -0.005%. Gilts yields add 1-1.5bps across the curve with 10y yields trading either side of 1.20%. 10y Italy underperforms peripheral peers, widening ~2bps to Germany.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as the dollar was higher or steady against all of its Group-of-10 peers; Scandinavian and Antipodean currencies were the worst performers while the Canadian dollar held up against the greenback amid a continued rise in oil prices.  The euro gravitated toward $1.1380, a key technical area. The pound weakened on the back of a broadly stronger dollar, with focus on inflation figures due Wednesday. Britain’s labor market grew strongly despite a surge in coronavirus infections late last year. Further pound gains aren’t that straightforward for options traders. Ten-year gilt yields are flirting with their highest level since before the pandemic ahead of a seven-year sale. The yen recovered from an Asia session loss after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda looked to quash speculation that the phasing out of stimulus is anywhere near the horizon.

In commodities, Brent oil surged to the highest level in seven years, underscoring the inflation challenge facing the Federal Reserve. Easing concerns about the impact of the omicron virus strain on demand, together with shrinking inventories and geopolitical risks are contributing to Goldman forcasting a $105 per barrel crude price in 2023. With US traders walking to their desks, crude futures are in the green but off session highs. WTI gains over 1.5%, holding above $85, Brent gains stall near $88. Spot gold drifts ~$8 lower near $1,810/oz. Most base metals trade well: LME tin adds over 2.5% to a record high. LME lead and copper are in the red

Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases include UK unemployment for November, the ZEW Survey from Germany for January, whilst in the US there’s the Empire State manufacturing survey for January and the NAHB’s housing market index. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Villeroy and earnings releases include Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 1.2% to 4,597.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.3% to 478.04
  • MXAP down 0.6% to 193.63
  • MXAPJ down 0.7% to 632.44
  • Nikkei down 0.3% to 28,257.25
  • Topix down 0.4% to 1,978.38
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 24,112.78
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,569.91
  • Sensex down 0.8% to 60,816.76
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 7,408.78
  • Kospi down 0.9% to 2,864.24
  • Brent Futures up 1.3% to $87.61/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,811.82
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 95.35
  • German 10Y yield little changed at -0.01%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1395

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Brent oil surged to the highest level in seven years as physical markets run hot in the world’s largest consuming region and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said prices are headed for $100 a barrel
  • If the Bank of England pulls the trigger and raises interest rates to 0.5% next month, that would be the first back- to-back hikes since 2004. It also opens the door for the BOE to start reducing its record balance sheet
  • Some investors call for more frequent remit revisions from the U.K.’s Debt Management Office amid widespread support for more short and inflation- linked issuance
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping called on nations to secure global supply chains and prevent inflation shocks, as the leader of the world’s No.2 economy seeks a smooth path to clinching a precedent-defying third term in power
  • The Chinese property market expectation has been improving steadily as property sales, land purchases and financing gradually return to normal recently after efforts from various sides, Zou Lan, head of PBOC’s financial market department, says at a briefing
  • China will aim to keep the yuan exchange rate stable, and market and policy factors will help correct any short-term deviation from its equilibrium level, a senior central bank official said

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed with early optimism in the region soured by a resumption of the surge in US yields as trade got underway from the US holiday. US equity futures resumed trade flat but thereafter experienced pressure with the NQ (-1.8%) the laggard as US yields surged, with the 10yr cash yield briefly topping 1.85%. European equity futures were also softer overnight but to a lesser extent. In APAC, the ASX 200 (-0.1%) was initially kept afloat by strength in tech and the mining sectors with the latter unfazed by Rio Tinto’s weaker quarterly iron production and shipment numbers as the mining heavyweight’s FY22 guidance was relatively in line with forecasts, although the gains were later faded amid losses in the top-weighted financials sector and a rise in US yields to their highest in two years. The Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) benefitted early on from the recent JPY weakness and after the BoJ policy announcement in which it maintained policy settings as expected and reaffirmed its dovish stance. The central bank reiterated that it will take more action without hesitation if needed and that it expects rates to remain at current or lower levels, which was at a contrast to a prior source report that suggested debate among policymakers on how soon a rate increase can be signalled, although the Japanese benchmark later slipped into the red as the spotlight turned to the higher US yields. The Hang Seng (-0.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) were mixed with outperformance in the mainland following the PBoC’s liquidity efforts and with many anticipating further policy action from China. This helped the mainland shrug off the early indecision brought on by ongoing developer headwinds and virus concerns that have prompted China’s decision to refrain from selling Beijing Winter Olympics tickets to the general public amid the COVID-19 outbreak. Finally, 10yr JGBs were initially kept afloat with mild support heading into the BoJ policy announcement where the central bank maintained it policy settings and reiterated its intentions to sustain powerful monetary easing, although JGBs then retreated in tandem with the pressure in T-note futures as US yields resumed their advances to the highest levels since January 2020 which saw yields in the belly up by around 10bps and the 10yr yield briefly rose above 1.85%.

Top Asian News

  • Bank Indonesia Names New Monetary Policy Head
  • Tokyo Area Faces Three-Week Covid Quasi-Emergency, NHK Says
  • DaFa Properties Failed to Pay 9.95% Senior Notes Due Jan. 2022
  • China Diplomat Calls U.S. Omicron Surge ‘Greatly Out of Control’

Major European bourses are firmly in negative territory (Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5%; Stoxx 600 -1.2%) as sentiment was hit amid surging bond yields as US cash bonds resumed trade overnight. APAC saw somewhat of a mixed closed with Shanghai benefitting from the prospect of further policy loosening after commentary from the PBoC, who also intimated that the divergence with some Western central banks is manageable. US equity futures have extended their APAC losses as volumes pick up and yields remain at high – with the NQ (-2.0%) the hardest hit. On that note, Deutsche Bank’s January survey showed 49% of respondents believe US tech stocks are in a bubble, 39% disagree, 12% do not know, whilst the BofA January survey suggested investors cut net overweight positions in the Tech sector to their lowest since December 2008. Back in Europe, EUR-bourses see relatively broad-based losses and overlooked a sizeable rise in the German ZEW Economic Sentiment (51.7 vs exp. 32.0) – which indicated the economic outlook has improved considerably since the start of 2022. Meanwhile, the UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.9%) initially saw some losses cushioned by oil majors – which remains the outperforming sector despite trimming earlier gains. Broader European sectors are in the red across the board with some defensives towards the top of the bunch, while the other side of the spectrum sees Tech and Travel & Leisure as the marked laggards, with the former under heavy pressure from rising yields, with the German 10yr cash yields eyeing positive territory. The latter meanwhile is weighed on more by its Leisure subsector as sector-heavyweight Evolution Gaming (-4.8%) sits towards the foot of the Stoxx 600. The auto sector is also under pressure following lacklustre EU27 car registrations, whilst Toyota also cut its output forecast amid the chip shortage and as its auto plant in Tianjin remains suspended following the regional COVID outbreak. In terms of individual movers, Hugo Boss (-0.3%) conforms to the regional losses despite seeing an initial spike higher at the open following encouraging earnings.

Top European News

  • German Investor Confidence Surges Amid Hopes for 2022 Recovery
  • Spotify Backer GP Bullhound Said to Join Amsterdam SPAC Rush
  • Brexit Gives $228 Billion Boost to Irish Bank Balance Sheets
  • Ex-Citi Banker Says He Was Fired for Flagging ‘Toxic’ Dubai Unit

In FX, some respite for the Greenback after its marked reversal from early 2022 peaks (index at 96.422 on January 4th), and the latest ratchet higher in US Treasury yields is providing impetus even though other global bonds are tracking the moves amidst more upside in oil prices that is stoking inflation pressures and prompting further reflation trades. The DXY is trying to form a firmer base above 95.000 within a 95.126-95.454 range in the face of heightened risk aversion that is boosting demand for safer havens and crimping commodity related gains for currencies within and beyond the basket. Ahead, only NY Fed manufacturing and the NAHB housing market index on a relatively quiet agenda after the long MLK holiday weekend.

  • JPY – The Yen has recovered pretty well from overnight lows posted against the Dollar following a still dovishly positioned BoJ and subsequent comments from Governor Kuroda underlining that policy stance with little inclination to change tack anytime soon, irrespective of source reports claiming the contrary. Indeed, Usd/Jpy is back down around 114.60 having popped above 115.00 and a Fib retracement level at 114.92 that could be pivotal on a closing basis from a technical perspective rather than pure risk-off/on dynamics.
  • CAD/EUR/GBP/CHF – All softer vs their US rival to varying degrees, as the Loonie continues to derive a degree of traction/underlying support from WTI extending to Usd 85.74/brl at one stage and now awaiting Canadian CPI for further direction hot on the heels of yesterday’s broadly upbeat BoC business outlook survey. Usd/Cad is flattish between 1.2486-1.2534 parameters, while the Euro has lost grip of the 1.1400 handle, Sterling is back below 1.3650 and the Franc is straddling 0.9150 in wake of a rather mixed German ZEW survey, solid UK jobs data on balance and a slowdown in Swiss producer/import prices.
  • AUD/NZD – The Aussie and Kiwi have both faded above round numbers that have acted as support and resistance of late, at 0.7200 and 0.6800 respectively, but the former is holding up a tad better given a modest bounce in the Aud/Nzd cross in the low 1.0600 zone after a deterioration in NZIER confidence and decline in cap u. Moreover, Aud/Usd may glean impetus from decent option expiry interest between 0.7190-0.7200 (1.065 bn).

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures have pulled back from overnight highs but remain at elevated levels with WTI Feb around USD 85/bbl (83.50-85.74 range) and Brent March north of USD 87/bbl (86.44-88.13 range). Several factors are in play for the complex from both sides of the equations. Geopolitical risk premium continues to be woven into prices as tensions remain at highs between NATO/Ukraine and Russia, adding to that the middle eastern developments between the UAE/Saudi and Houthis. Further on the supply side, the under-production from several OPEC members continues to underpin prices. On the demand side, the reopening of economies in the West provides the complex with bullish omens, albeit the East remains cautious – with China adhering to its zero-COVID policy and Tokyo reportedly planning to raise its COVID warning level by one notch, according to TV Asahi. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs upped its forecast and expected oil hitting USD 100/bbl in H2 2021 amid a lower-than-expected hit to demand from Omicron. The bank sees USD 90/bbl in Q1 2022 and USD 95/bbl averaging in Q2 this year. Elsewhere, spot gold is under pressure from the rising Buck and yield, with the yellow metal in close proximity to its 21 DMA (1,809), 50 DMA (1,806) and 200 DMA (1,803). LME copper has succumbed to the risk aversion and currently trades around session lows but north of USD 9,500/t.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Jan. Empire Manufacturing, est. 25.0, prior 31.9
  • 10am: Jan. NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 84, prior 84
  • 4pm: Nov. Total Net TIC Flows, prior $143b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

In around an hour or so we will be publishing our latest monthly survey results. It’s fair to say that there’s a more bearish tilt to the responses than there was before Xmas. We asked a few of the same 2022 questions and there has been a further bias towards higher rates, more Fed hikes, less strong risk/equities and a slightly earlier likely next US recession date. There’s lots more so watch out for the results at 8am London time.

By next month’s survey it might be worth asking who hasn’t played “Wordle”. I discovered this new global craze over the last week and have become quickly addicted to the daily search for the 5-letter word of the day. For the uninitiated you have 6 attempts to guess the word from scratch. After each guess you get told if you have any of the right letters in order and whether any of the letters are correct but in the wrong order. Each guess has to be an actual word to count. From there is a process of skill/elimination and luck! When I’ve succeeded it’s the former, when I’ve failed it’s the latter. It’s highly addictive and it’s certainly improved my vocabulary of 4-letter words when I can’t work it out.

It’s a shame there is only one new word every day as yesterday’s quiet US session would have given plenty of opportunity to play. Although it was a predictably slow session, familiar themes dominated and investor conviction hardened that the Fed were set to embark on a regular series of rate hikes starting in March. Indeed, yesterday marked a number of fresh milestones, as it was the first time that Fed funds futures were fully pricing in a March rate hike, up from 97% on the close on Friday. And for the year as a whole, futures are now pricing in 3.99 hikes, up from 3.79 on Friday and again the highest number to date. Bear in mind that at the start of October, futures were pricing in just a single hike in 2022, so we’ve added nearly 3 additional hikes in the space of just 3 and a half months, which begs the question of what we might be saying in another 3 and a half months from now. A reminder of the “What’s in the tails?” note from our economists over the weekend detailing the risk scenario of a Fed that may choose to get to neutral earlier than expected than expected. They outline a scenario where the Fed needs to raise rates at every meeting from March. This is inline with my thinking that unless financial conditions tighten notably, every meeting from March is live. See their report here.

US Treasury markets themselves were closed as a result of the holiday but yields have jumped across the curve in the Asian session this morning. 2yr yields have risen +6.8bps and above 1% (1.034%) for the first time since February 2020 while 5yr (+7.2bps) and 10yr yields (+5.2bps) have both jumped to the highest level since January 2020. Overnight oil has hit the highest level since 2014 and is up around +1.5% as I type. The complex’s is up more than +10% on a YTD basis and is the best performer YTD in our global list of key macro variables.

This all follows a selloff in sovereign bonds across the board in Europe yesterday. In Germany, yields on 10yr bunds were up +2.0bps to -0.03%, which puts them back around their highest level since the pandemic, and not far off reaching positive territory for the first time since May 2019. They got close yesterday but stepped back from the parapet. Given the Asian session, today could be the day that German bonds give you a positive yield again! Over in France, yields on 10yr OATs (+2.3bps) hit a post-pandemic high of their own, and their Spanish counterparts (+2.0bps) saw yields at their highest since June 2020.

In spite of the prospect of tighter monetary policy before much longer, European equities posted a decent performance yesterday, with the STOXX 600 advancing +0.70% as part of a broad-based advance. Technology stocks led the way, with the STOXX Technology index (+1.59%) recovering after 2 consecutive weekly declines, whilst the STOXX Health Care Index (+1.06%) also pared back its losses after a weak start to the year so far. In the UK, the FTSE 100 (+0.91%) closed at its highest level in almost 2 years and cemented its status as one of the top-performing of the main European and US equity indices on a YTD basis, having risen +3.1% in 2022 thus far. And on top of that, the gains for both France’s CAC 40 (+0.82%) and the German DAX (+0.32%) meant that both indices were back into positive territory on a YTD basis as well.

Asian stock markets are without a clear trend this morning with the Nikkei (+0.12%) fluctuating after the BOJ maintained its negative interest rate while keeping the bond yield target and asset purchases intact, in-line with market expectations. In its outlook report, the central bank raised its inflation forecast for the fiscal year from April due to rising energy costs alongside a weak yen. The BOJ revised up its inflation forecast to +1.1% in fiscal 2022 from a +0.9% rise estimated earlier and sees inflation for fiscal 2023 reaching +1.1% from +1.0%. Additionally, it refreshed Japan’s growth outlook to +3.8% for fiscal 2022 compared to +2.9% three months ago, despite increasing concerns over the rapid spread of the Omicron variant. Elsewhere, the Shanghai Composite (+0.94%) and CSI (+1.07%) are extending their previous session gains this morning. Meanwhile, the Kospi (-1.02%) is edging down after opening higher while the Hang Seng (-0.14%) is trading in the red at the time of writing. Moving ahead, futures market in the DM world indicate a negative start with the S&P (-0.50%) and DAX (-0.28%) contracts moving lower.

Back to the energy complex, Galina in my team put out a comprehensive report on carbon pricing and trading yesterday. It’s packed full of interesting stuff and the ramifications of the sharp rise higher over the past year. See here for more.

Turning to the pandemic, there was continued positive news from the UK on cases, which are now down by -42% over the last 7 days relative to the preceding week, which is a very promising sign for elsewhere given that the UK was one of the first of the advanced economies to be hit by the Omicron wave.

To  the day ahead now, and data releases include UK unemployment for November, the ZEW Survey from Germany for January, whilst in the US there’s the Empire State manufacturing survey for January and the NAHB’s housing market index. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Villeroy and earnings releases include Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 28.25 PTS OR 0.80%      //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 105.25 PTS OR 0.43% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 76.27 PTS OR 0.27%      //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.04%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.3515    /Oil UP TO 84.95 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 87.16 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED     //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN  AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3515. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3552: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN AND OFF SHORE TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

END

3B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/COVID

Omicron arrives in Beijing and no doubt that the winter games will be done spectatorless

(zerohedge)

Beijing Bars Spectators From Winter Games As First Omicron Case Confirmed

 MONDAY, JAN 17, 2022 – 03:00 PM

It’s looking increasingly likely that China’s Winter 2022 Olympics will take place in front of mostly crowd-less stadiums, just like last summer’s Tokyo Games. Chinese media reported over the weekend that China has halted ticket sales for the Beijing Games. Instead of selling tickets to the public, groups of chosen spectators, most likely CCP elites, will be allowed to attend certain events.

The decision comes after the Chinese capital reported the first confirmed case of the omicron variant over the weekend. The organizers of the Games released a statement confirming the decision.

On Sep.30 2021,the pandemic prevention and control policy principles for the Beijing 2022 Games were released .One of the principles was that no tickets would be sold to spectators from outside China’s mainland. Tickets would be sold exclusively to spectators residing in China’s mainland who meet the requirements of COVID-19 countermeasures.

Given the current grave and complicated situation of the COVID-19 pandemic and to ensure the safety of all participants and spectators, it was decided that tickets should not be sold anymore but be part of an adapted programme that will invite groups of spectators to be present on site during the Games. The organisers expect that these spectators will strictly abide by the COVID-19 countermeasures before, during and after each event as pre-conditions for the safe and sound delivery of the Games.

Beijing last year announced several measures aimed at keeping athletes and spectators safe, including limiting ticket sales to people residing in mainland China.

More than 3K athletes as well as trainers and support staff are reportedly expected to attend the Winter Games, with all participants expected to remain in a “closed loop” in Beijing.

Attendees entering the loop must be fully vaccinated before arriving in China or face being quarantined, and they will be tested daily for COVID.

end

CHINA

China unexpectedly cuts its key rate as economic growth sours//retail sales slump

(zerohedge)

China Unexpectedly Cuts Key Rate, Adds Liquidity As Economic Growth Slowed, Retail Sales Slump

 SUNDAY, JAN 16, 2022 – 09:28 PM

A busy night started with weakness in US equity futures (Nasdaq down 0.5%) and an unexpected cut in a key China policy rate and a modest addition of liquidity. This was then followed by a mixed bag of China macro with a GDP beat (but slowing growth) but ugly retail sales disappointment. All of which sent the Yuan lower…

As Bloomberg reports, China lowered a key interest rate for the first time since the peak of the pandemic in 2020 as a property-market slump and repeated virus outbreaks dampened the nation’s growth outlook. The People’s Bank of China cut the rate on its one-year policy loans by 10 basis points to 2.85%. That’s the first reduction since April 2020. It also slashed the rate on the seven-day reverse repurchase agreements by the same magnitude to 2.1%.

The central bank made the move while offering 700 billion yuan ($110 billion) via the medium-term lending facility, exceeding the 500 billion yuan coming due. It added 100 billion yuan with seven-day reverse repos.

“The PBOC has accelerated its pace of policy easing in order to guide borrowing costs lower and to encourage credit supply,” said Yewei Yang, an analyst at Guosheng Securities Co.

“The move suggests China’s economic is weak and it will trigger a significant slide in borrowing costs.”

The cut to policy rates indicates the PBOC is taking easier stance to deal with economic downward pressures which were reflected somewhat in a mixed set of data from China that showed growth slowing (albeit better than expected) and retail sales notably disappointing.

  • China 4Q GDP Grows 4% Y/Y; Est. 3.3%, but notably below Q3’s +4.9%
  • China Dec. Industrial Output Rises 4.3% Y/Y; Est. 3.7%
  • China Jan.-Dec. Fixed Investment Rises 4.9% Y/Y; Est. 4.8%
  • China Jan.-Dec. GDP Grows 8.1% Y/Y; Est. 8%
  • China End-Dec. Survey Jobless Rate Rises to 5.1% vs 5.0% Prior
  • China Dec. Retail Sales Rise 1.7% Y/Y; Est. 3.8%

As is clear in the chart below, all of the key macro measures worsened…

As Bloomberg’s Enda Curran notes, the retail sales weakness looks broad based. There was a big decline in sales of household electronics and automobiles and also contraction for restaurant/catering, clothing, jewelry and furniture. Given the news through January regarding the virus outbreaks, one wonders if that can turn around materially in the near term. The annual new years holiday would be an obvious boost in other years, but less clear how it plays out this year.

On a seasonally adjusted month/month basis, China’s retail sales rose in just four months last year. Even during 2020’s pandemic impacts, there were five months of such sales growth.

On top of the big miss for retail sales, online shopping shows more worrying signs for the country’s weakening consumer demand. Online retail sales grew 14.1% in 2021, the slowest annual pace since 2014.

Chang Shu and David Qu, economists at Bloomberg Economics, say the bigger-than-expected cut to the one-year MLF rate shows it’s serious about supporting the economy.

We give the final words to Peiqian Liu, an economist at NatWest Markets:

This is a decisive dovish tilt as the policymakers acknowledged the importance to stabilize short term growth.

The rate cut may translate into a broad-based 10bps lower in 1Y and 5Y LPR on Thursday.

In terms of our outlook for monetary policy in 2022, we think the PBOC will unlikely resort to “flood-style stimulus” of consecutive and aggressive rate cuts. Instead, we see room for moderate easing with another 20bps rate cut and 100bps RRR cut for the rest of this year.

US equity futures extended their losses despite the MLF rate cut…

The stock market reaction to the PBOC’s interest rate cut is relatively muted because “the latest cut seems to be in line with the targeted pro-growth policy guidance for 2022 as highlighted by the key economic working group,” says Kelvin Wong, analyst at CMC Markets

One last thing of note, China’s stats folks say the country’s population was about 500,000 people more at year’s end than a year earlier (albeit a rounding error), but it signals that China hasn’t gotten to peak population just yet apparently.

So, as we pointed out in December, it is now clear that China is shifting to an easing mode as the rest of the world is shifting to a tightening cycle.

end

China’s property sector crashing again, Country Garden

(zerohedge)

China’s Property Sector Is Crashing Again And This Time It Has Reached The Country’s Biggest Developer

MONDAY, JAN 17, 2022 – 09:05 PM

The crisis engulfing China’s property sector – which has prompted Beijing to capitulate on its tightening ambitions yet again, and forced China to launch an increasingly more aggressive easing campaign, which so far culminated in the first rate cut in Chinese official rates in almost two years – has impacted the country’s biggest developer, sending the shares and bonds of Country Garden Holdings – which is even bigger than Evergrande – plunging amid fears that a reportedly failed fundraising effort may be a harbinger of waning confidence.

Country Garden is one of the few remaining large, (arguably) better-quality private developers that had been largely unscathed by the liquidity crunch, even as peers such as Shimao Group Holdings – a recently investment grade developer whose collapse in December was viewed as “more devastating than debt crises at Evergrande and Kaisa” – dramatic reversals in their credit ratings.

At least until now… and now that Shimao has imploded, Country Garden remains perhaps the final and most visible bellwether for contagion risk, as unprecedented levels of stress in the offshore credit market threaten to drag good credits down with bad.

Since taking the top spot from China Evergrande Group in 2017, Country Garden has remained the nation’s largest developer in China by contracted sales.It employs more than 200,000 people.

Headquartered in the southern city of Foshan in Guangdong province, the firm – like China Evergrande Group – has focused in recent years on building housing developments in lower-tier cities. 

And, like Evergrande, Country Garden has also relied heavily on access to funding in the offshore credit market; actually not just Evegrande but virtually all developer peers that binged on debt to fuel growth in the past decade only to see the window slam shut now. According to Bloomberg, it has the largest pool of outstanding US dollar bonds among China’s biggest property firms, excluding defaulters, with some US$11.7 billion outstanding, Bloomberg-compiled data showed.

Founding chairman Yeung Kwok Keung transferred his controlling stake to his daughter Yang Huiyan in 2005. She is now the firm’s vice-chairman and is the richest woman in China, according to the Bloomberg Billionaire Index.

Or at least she was, because on some of Country Garden’s US dollar notes plunged to record lows in the wake of a report that the firm failed to win sufficient investor support for a possible convertible bond deal. Longer-dated bonds were trading as low as 69 cents on the dollar as of late Friday.

This is notable because China’s developer was relatively resilient in the face of the liquidity crisis sparked by a government crackdown on excessive borrowing by builders and housing market speculation, and had been unscathed by the crisis at industry giant Evergrande. But just as we warned back in September, China’s slow-motion real estate crisis which revolves around what Goldman calculated last year was the world’s largest asset which absent significant stimulus from Beijing, is facing a very painful derating.

According to Bloomberg, while Country Garden is not facing imminent repayment pressure – it has US$1.1 billion of dollar bonds due this year and had 186 billion yuan (S$39.5 billion) of available cash as of June last year – risks may emerge if it is seen to have limited access to funding. Any sign of doubt in the firm’s capacity to weather liquidity stress risks may prompt a widespread repricing of other higher-quality developers.With more than 3,000 housing projects located in almost every province in China, Country Garden’s financial health has immense economic and social consequences, far greater than Evergrande.

Worse, if the firm starts showing signs of stress, it will severely damage already fragile investor and homebuyer confidence, posing threats to China’s economy and even social stability. And that’s when China’s Lehman moment will truly emerge.

Where it gets challenging is that similar to Evergrande, more than 60% of Country Garden’s contracted sales in mainland China came from the third- and fourth-tier cities, said its 2021 interim report. Demand in lower-tier areas may significantly weaken in 2022, said a forecast by Fitch analysts. Being a “pure developer”, it is less flexible when it comes to raising cash by selling assets, said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Andrew Chan.

Country Garden’s strategy is to manage its current assets effectively, in addition to expanding its business, the told Bloomberg News, although it clearly did not anticipate the recent meltdown in its bonds. “The firm is experiencing less volatility than the overall market” amid a broader market downturn, it said. The developer sold bonds and asset-backed securities in the local market in December, reflecting support from both investors and regulators, and maintained its ratings at all 3 major rating firms last year, said the comments.

Country Garden holds both investment-grade and high-yield credit ratings from the 3 major risk assessors, making it a so-called crossover name that could be vulnerable to becoming a ‘fallen angel’. That could in turn raise its borrowing costs and eliminate yet another builder from the dwindling pool of higher-rated developers that investors can turn to during the credit squeeze.

It has the equivalent of an investment-grade triple B rating at both Moody’s Investor Services and Fitch Ratings, and the highest possible speculative-grade rating at S&P Global Ratings. Still, the borrower is likely to “strengthen its financial resilience by controlling debt growth and maintaining disciplined land acquisitions”, S&P analysts wrote in a September report that reaffirmed its rating.

Still, the builder may find it difficult to revive sales in 2022 with weakening market sentiment in lower-tier cities, where 77 per cent of its land bank is located, said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kristy Hung. The firm’s sizeable amount of newly acquired land continues to be located in such areas, raising further concern about cash collection, she wrote.

Meanwhile, in the latest wave of selling, investors are now scrutinizing Country Garden’s capacity to raise funding from a variety of channels, particularly as the offshore credit market remains effectively closed to most developers. It needs to repay or refinance some US$1.3 billion on bonds this year, the majority of which are dollar notes. Its next maturity is a US$425 million bond due Jan 27.

The selling in Country Garden’s bond accelerated last week after the company struggled to tap the market for fresh funds, reportedly pulling a $300 million convertible bond issue due to weak demand.At the same time, Sunac’s shares sank a record 23% after it sold new equity. Focus has also turned to the spillover effects of Country Garden’s falling bond prices on the notes of other stronger developers as fears of contagion risks remain elevated.

Just to shore up confidence that it won’t be the next Evergradnde, a statement on the Hong Kong stock exchange late Monday said  that Country Garden bought back an aggregate principal amount of $5m of 4.75% notes due July 2022 and $5m of 7.25% notes due April 2026. And even though the company added that it would monitor market conditions and “may make further repurchase of its bonds”, we are concerned that this tiny, theatrical $10MM buyback will do little to restore investor confidence.

And as investors nervously eye the fate of China’s largest developer, fresh turmoil rocked Chinese property bonds on Monday on concern over the true scale of the industry’s hidden debts according to Bloomberg, deepening a selloff among higher-rated firms.

The latest selloff was catalyzed by a Debtwire report according to which Logan Group could be on the hook for $812 million of guarantees on outstanding obligations due through 2023. The news hammered Logan’s note due 2023 which sank 14.1 cents to a record low 62.9 while Country Garden’s shorter-dated bond due 2024 tumbled 12.9 cents to 67.7 cents, extending last week’s selloff for the country’s biggest developer.

According to Bloomberg, the selling in Property stocks is morphing from one catalyzed by specific event to one sparked by mounting concerns about the transparency of China’s better developers, and is forcing bondholders to question the liquidity of firms whose finances appear sound.More debt would mean more creditors, some of whom could demand early repayment. There’s also the risk that hidden liabilities like trust loans, private bonds or high-yield consumer products receive preferential treatment over money owed to offshore creditors. China Evergrande Group, Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. and Shimao Group Holdings Ltd. have all faced such obligations.

While Logan, whose bonds traded at close to par as recently as last month, and which rated the equivalent of a BB rating at all three major credit risk assessors, denied both the report and market speculation the company has privately sold debt, that did little to ease the puke in its bonds which quickly spilled over to the rest of the property segment.

Already fragile investor confidence has taken a battering this year, effectively keeping the dollar bond market shut for developers. That’s left the sector with limited refinancing options, increasing the risk of companies failing to pay debt on time.

“Risks across the Chinese property sector are rising, evident from difficult refinancing conditions for even the most well-regarded firms,” said Wei Liang Chang, a macro strategist at DBS Bank Ltd. Greater clarity on the disclosure of liabilities as well as asset sales are crucial to shore up confidence, he added.

Real estate financing received by developers plunged about 19% in December from a year earlier, the sharpest decline in more than seven years, according to Bloomberg calculations based on full-year government figures released Monday. Home sales by value declined 19.6% in December from a year earlier, a sixth consecutive monthly drop, while property investment shrank 14%.

According to Bloomberg calculations, at least seven developers have defaulted on dollar bonds since October. That includes Evergrande, whose crisis has ensnared lender China Minsheng Banking, the world’s worst-performing bank stock. Guangzhou R&F Properties Co. was downgraded to restricted default by Fitch Ratings last week due to what the ratings firm called a distressed debt exchange.

As if that wasn’t enough, there remains the problem of the frozen bond market. With bond yields of property developers at stratospheric levels, Chinese property firms need to repay or refinance some $99 billion of local and offshore bonds this year.Just under half of that is outstanding dollar debt, Bloomberg-compiled data show.

Bottom line: as much as Beijing wants to, it will have to step in and bailout not just the property developers but the entire housing markets, where transactions have cratered and confidence has evaporated. And to do that, China will have to ease financial conditions much more aggressively than it has done so far – yes, overnight Beijing cut rates for the first time since 2020, but that step is nowhere near enough. To avoid an all out depression, Beijing will have to do much, much more… and not just Chine but the rest of the world’s central banks too.  Which is why anyone who believes that the current tightening euphoria will last more than a few months, well we have a bridge in Wuhan  we’d like to sell you.

 end

CHINA/COVID

China halts all foreign mail due to COVID threat?  Tiajan reports 80 new cases

(zerohedge)

China Halts All Foreign Mail Due To COVID Threat As Tianjin Reports 80 New Cases

 MONDAY, JAN 17, 2022 – 08:00 PM

With the Winter Olympics in Beijing set to start in just a few weeks, the CCP is still struggling to suppress a handful of small but alarming outbreaks of COVID, several of which have involved cases of the omicron variant.

And now, in the capital city, Beijing officials are warning locals not to order items and products from abroad, because they’re worried that COVID might be carried into the country on the outsides of these packages. Or at least that’s what they want the public to think.

Chinese authorities have been warning for years that COVID might be spread on the packaging of foodstuffs and other goods shipped internationally, something that many scientists have questioned, but that Chinese authorities have nonetheless kept alive with their state-controlled media.

One woman who apparently tested positive for the virus, then traces of the virus had been found on the packaging, or so at least Chinese authorities say.

All of this is happening as authorities have imposed tough restrictions on Beijing as it prepares to host the Olympics. For example, all new arrivals to the city must take a virus test within a day of travel to show that they are testing negative, regardless of whether they have been vaccinated or not.

Health official Pang Xinghuo told reporters on Monday that the virus had been found on the surface of a letter the infected person had received from Canada, as well as inside the unopened letter, according to AFP.

Dozens of letters from the same batch were tested, and five showed positive traces of COVID, Pang said, including samples from inside unopened letters. Beijing’s CDC said the possibility that the woman was infected by a parcel from another country could not be ruled out.

Nordea’s economists still expect China’s economy to grow at a pace of 5% over the next year, despite the risk posed by omicron. China’s growth outlook stabilized in the last quarter of 2021.

The main factors that adversely affected China’s growth prospects in the second half of 2021 were the tight COVID policy and the real estate sector slowdown. They are expected to continue to dampen. And on a positive note, the shortage of electricity has eased since the start of October. Beijing’s real problem, according to Nordea, is that it doesn’t seem to have an “exit strategy” from its “COVID Zero” lockdown-centric approach.

Meanwhile, in Tianjin, a port city that’s just 130 Km from Beijing, another 80 local cases of COVID have been reported, the biggest daily jump yet. The city and the port are still open and running as authorities have locked down a handful of neighborhoods in the city.

For the record, Tianjin, which is situated about 30 minutes by train from Beijing, is one of China’s largest cities by population and home to one of its most active ports. It is the “recommended” port of entry for goods for the Winter Olympics and operations have not been affected by the outbreak, according to the state-controlled local media.

end

CHINA/COVID

Hong Kong Arrests Flight Attendants As Beijing Faces ‘Dual Variant’ Outbreak

TUESDAY, JAN 18, 2022 – 09:30 AM

Is the COVID pandemic really reaching its final stretch? That’s what Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla would like the public to believe – he said during a recent series of interviews with the French media that life on earth should “return to normal” in the coming months. Of course, the “experts” said the same thing last winter.

But the reality on the ground shows that we’re a long way away. Globally, the number of new COVID cases has declined from a single-day peak reached earlier this month. Meanwhile, a growing number of governments are taking extreme measures to try and crack down on the virus. Japan is set to grant permission to the governors of Tokyo and 12 other prefectures to tighten restrictions on social activities as COVID-19 cases hit a daily record. Japan reported more than 27K new cases, broadcaster TBS said, exceeding the previous high seen in August shortly after Tokyo hosted the Summer Olympics.

Elsewhere in Asia, authorities in Hong Kong have arrested two Cathay Pacific flight attendants for violating the city’s strict anti-pandemic policies. The government confirmed their arrests on Monday, claiming that the two flight attendants had violated quarantine policies.

In recent days, a growing number of countries have imposed vaccine requirements on their citizens. Austria has just imposed Europe’s first vaccine mandate on its roughly 9MM citizens. Italy imposed a similar mandate on all citizens over 50 years of age earlier this month.

Meanwhile, over in Israel, the government has decided to continue offering a second booster to Israeli citizens, despite new research showing that people will remain vulnerable to COVID no matter how many shots they receive.

Israel started offering a fourth shot to its most vulnerable and high-risk groups last month, but it has held off on expanding the offer to the wider population.

The preliminary study data mentioned above was published by Israel’s Sheba Medical Center on Monday, and it found that the fourth shot increases antibodies to even higher levels than the third, but still probably not high enough.

The Israeli Health Ministry’s director-general Nachman Ash described those findings as “unsurprising, to a degree” as Omicron infections had been logged in some people after they received fourth doses.

But “protection from serious morbidity, especially for the elderly population and at-risk population, is still afforded by this vaccine (dose), and therefore I call on people to keep coming to get vaccinated,” he told Army Radio.

Finally, in Beijing, authorities are seeing signs of both omicron and delta, a dual-variant threat that is unfurling less than three weeks before the Winter Olympic Games. According to Bloomberg, Beijing’s first omicron-infected patient has passed the virus to at least two close contacts, according to China’s national health commission. Separately, a person in a different part of the capital tested preliminary positive for delta, a city spokesperson said during a Tuesday briefing.

Australia recorded 74 deaths on Tuesday, its highest number of daily COVID deaths since the start of the pandemic. The state of Victoria has declared a state of emergency for its hospital system, which is buckling under the strain of staff illness and soaring coronavirus cases.

Circling back to Hong Kong, local authorities have created one of the more colorful pieces of COVID news by ordering a cull of 2K hamsters on Tuesday while warning pet owners not to kiss animals after a cluster of COVID cases was traced to a pet shop.

According to Reuters, Hong Kong’s pet rodent clampdown echoes the mainland’s zero-tolerance approach to COVID even as much of the world shifts to living with the disease.

In other animal-linked COVID news, authorities in South Africa have confirmed that two pumas who had diarrhea, nasal discharge and anorexia had been infected with COVID, but managed to make a full recovery after 23 days.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

//GERMANY//COVID/VACCINE

German Health Minister makes mandatory jabs one step closer

(zerohedge)

German Health Minister Supports Vaccine Mandate For All Adults

 SATURDAY, JAN 15, 2022 – 07:35 AM

After weeks of warning that it was really planning to follow through with plans to make vaccines mandatory throughout German society, the German government just took one step closer to making the mandate a reality.

German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach said Friday that he would support a vaccine mandate for all German adults age 18 and up. Presumably, his feelings reflect those of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has never hesitated to discuss his views on mandatory vaccination (he’s in favor of it).

However, the government’s support doesn’t change the fact that a vocal minority of Germans are vehemently against mandatory jabs. And it’s not just Germany: in neighboring Austria, authorities are resorting to arresting elderly women for going to the grocery store without showing their digital identity card.

As Germany pushes for even tighter restrictions on the unvaccinated, who have been demonized by Germany’s leadership in recent weeks, German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach said Friday that he supports imposing a vaccine mandate requiring all German adults 18 and up to have at least their first two vaccine shots.

Lauterbach also said during his press briefing Friday that the German government hopes to “stretch out” the omicron wave to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed, but still he expects to reach “endemic stage” by the end of the year. Of course, that’s what they said last year, too (although there were different people in charge back then). He also took a minute to slam the British: “had we followed the policies pursued by the British, we would have suffered twie as many deaths from COVID here in Germany,” he said.

Keep in mind, the German government has already mandated N-95 masks, a policy that some places in the US have started to mimic.

Germany just recently became one of the first countries in Europe to approve COVID boosters for 12-to-17 year olds. The decision came as Germany reported 81K new COVID infections, a new daily record.

The booster shot decision makes Germany among the first countries in the world to make such a recommendation, following the United States, Israel and Hungary.

“The current situation, with a sharp increase in the number of cases due to the Omicron variant and the feared consequences for the health system in Germany, makes it necessary to extend the vaccination campaign,” the STIKO vaccine committee said.

According to Reuters, data on the effectiveness and safety of the booster vaccination for 12-to-17-year-olds remains limited, but “experts” believe the risk of severe side effects is very low (although research shows younger patients are more at risk for harmful inflammation of the heart and other supposedly “rare” side effects).

Germany is currently in the middle of what its government has labeled the “fifth” wave of COVID, and the first to be driven primarily by omicron, which accounts for the vast majority of all new cases.

END

German government is angry and they are now considering shutting down Telegram

(Watson?SummitNews)

German Government Considering Shutting Down Telegram; Report

 SATURDAY, JAN 15, 2022 – 09:20 AM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

A report in the German newspaper Die Welt suggests that the government there is considering taking action to shut down messaging app Telegram because people opposed to COVID restrictions and lockdowns are using it to organise protests and share information.

The report contains an interview with German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser who stated “We cannot rule this out,” when asked if the platform will be targeted for censorship.

“A shutdown would be grave and clearly a last resort. All other options must be exhausted first,” Faeser clarified.

The minister also told the newspaper that while it is currently unclear what legal action would be needed to shut down the platform, the German government is in consultation with the European Union regarding potential regulation of it.

The Epoch Times notes that in Germany, which has implemented some of the most severe pandemic restrictions“Telegram has been used as a hub of communication for the protest movement against the measures established to fight the CCP virus, including lockdowns, intermittent mask mandates, and restrictions for the unvaccinated.”

Telegram has been shut down or blocked in other countries including Iran, China, Pakistan, India, Thailand, and Russia.

The platform saw a huge surge in users last year after Facebook owned Watts App introduced a controversial privacy update which led to concerns that the app would hand over user data to its parent company. It also came at the same time as President Trump’s purge from big tech social media platforms.

Telegram founder Pavel Durov warned that people are “being held hostage by tech monopolies.”

In addition to being independent from big tech, Telegram promises robust end-to-end encryption, ensuring messages remain private.

This has made Telegram a target for authoritarians and big tech monopolists.

In the U.S. lobbyist group The Coalition for a Safer Web even filed a lawsuit against Apple in an effort to get Telegram removed from the app store, claiming that it allows ‘extremists’ to spread ‘hate speech’.

*  *  *

end

FRANCE/COVID/VACCINE MANDATE

France is getting more ugly with respect to the unvaccinated

(Roberts/EpochTimes)

Teachers Across France Stage Mass Walkout Over Govt’s Ever-Changing COVID-19 Rules

SATURDAY, JAN 15, 2022 – 10:30 AM

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

Teachers across France staged a mass walkout this week in protest over the government’s ever-changing COVID-19 rules for those working in the education sector which they say fail to protect both staff and students.

The French Ministry of Education estimated that around 31 percent of all school teachers across the country took part in the strike on Thursday, 38 percent of whom worked in primary schools and nearly 24 percent in secondary schools.

A statement from the Mayor of Paris’ office said that in the capital city, roughly 58 percent of the teaching staff took part in the strike, and around 200 schools were forced to close, although trade and teachers unions put those figures much higher, at 75 percent.

The protests came as teachers across France are growing increasingly frustrated with the government’s ever-changing policies regarding the pandemic which has seen testing rules for children changed several times since the start of this year alone, oftentimes at the very last minute.

On top of that, educators say the government’s approach to the pandemic is failing to protect children or ensure replacement cover for teachers who are falling ill with the coronavirus. Unions are also calling on the government to provide more protective FFP2 face masks for staff as well as carbon dioxide monitors in classrooms so that they can ensure that they are sufficiently ventilated, as per The Guardian.

A protestor holds a placard reading “Exhausted directress” during a demonstration called by teachers’ unions to denounce new government measures against COVID-19, in Marseille, southern France, on Jan. 13, 2022. (Clement Mahoudeau/AFP via Getty Images)

Despite a surge in virus cases in schools across France, which have reached record highs of close to 370,000 new daily cases, the government has so far kept classes open and required all pupils in contact with an infected person to get tested three times.

“We had reached such a level of exasperation, tiredness, and anger that we didn’t have any other option but to organize a strike to send a strong message to the government,” union leader Elisabeth Allain-Moreno said.

On Monday, French Prime Minister Jean Castex announced that the rules were changing yet again, telling  TV station France 2 that students would now be required to take three self-administered COVID-19 at home, which will be free, as opposed to having PCR or antigen tests and then two self-administered tests on day two and day four.

“This will have an effect on the queues [outside pharmacies],” Castex said.

Teachers and school personnel march during a demonstration called by teachers’ unions to denounce new government measures against COVID-19, in Marseille, southern France, on Jan. 13, 2022. (Clement Mahoudeau/AFP via Getty Images)

But on Thursday, Snuipp-F.S.U., a leading union of elementary school personnel, criticized the government for allegedly updating the rules via the media as opposed to informing teachers beforehand.

“The prime minister’s televised speech ignoring the demands of personnel has once again demonstrated government contempt amplifying their anger and their mobilization,” SUNipp-FSU said.

“Once again, the protocol relief is announced in the media, and staff in schools must respond from this morning to family questions without any official instructions.”

The union stressed that the mass protests were not “a strike against the virus” but illustrated the growing frustrations among teachers, noting that the lack of replacements for sick teachers is adding extra pressure on the education system.

“Not only does the current protocol fail to protect students, staff, and their families but it also completely disorganizes the school,” SUNipp-FSU said. “Under current conditions, students cannot learn correctly.”

France has seen dozens of protests in recent months over the strict measures that have been put in place across the nation in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The country has enforced a health pass, meaning that people have to show either proof of vaccination or a negative test to enter restaurants, cafes, and bars, visit cinemas and use inter-regional trains.

A waiter wearing a face mask to protect against coronavirus serves customers at the Champs Elysees avenue in Paris, on July 12, 2021. (Michel Euler/AP Photo)

However, the government wants to enact a law by the middle of this month which would drop that health pass and stop unvaccinated people from being able to enter hospitality venues, essentially banning unvaccinated people from public life.

President Emmanuel Macron has been outspoken about his thoughts on those who refuse to get vaccinated and promised to make their lives miserable, which sparked backlash across the nation.

“I’m not for pissing off the French … Now the unvaccinated, I really want to piss them off. And so, we’re going to keep doing it, until the end. This is the strategy,” Macron said during an interview with Le Parisien earlier this month.

Macron added that while he “won’t send [unvaccinated people] to prison”, he “will make their lives more complicated and encourage people who refuse to get vaccinated to do so by “limiting as much as possible their access to activities in social life.”

“So we need to tell them—from Jan. 15, you will no longer be able to go to the restaurant. You will no longer be able to go for a coffee, you will no longer be able to go to the theatre. You will no longer be able to go to the cinema,” he said.

France is one of the most highly vaccinated countries in the world, with more than 90 percent of people aged 12 and older being fully vaccinated.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

end

RUSSIA, USA

Psaki Says Russia Attack On Ukraine Coming “At Any Point”; US Sanctions ‘Pro-Russian Agents’

TUESDAY, JAN 18, 2022 – 04:10 PM

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki in a Tuesday afternoon daily press briefing said “We believe we’re now at a stage where Russia could at any point launch an attack on Ukraine. I would say that’s more stark than we have been.”

She confirmed that Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kiev this week, just after it was recently revealed that CIA Director William Burns did the same last week. “What Secretary Blinken is going to do is highlight very clearly that there’s a diplomatic path forward,” Psaki said. “It is the choice of President Putin and the Russians to make whether they are going to suffer severe economic consequences or not.”https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1483492294728814598&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fpsaki-says-russia-attack-ukraine-coming-any-point-us-sanctions-pro-russian-agents&sessionId=ecc7609cc480802478e1bcc15a4e002dd12d1620&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=86e9194f%3A1641882287124&width=550px

Crucially, Blinken will from there go to Geneva where he’s agreed to meet Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov. He’s expected to demand that Russia “take immediate steps to de-escalate,” according to Psaki’s briefing.

Russia has lately confirmed it has a build-up of forces within its territory near Ukraine, but hasn’t disclosed how many troops, after Kiev and Washington have commonly accused the Kremlin of having at least 100,000 troops there in preparation for a Ukraine invasion, something the Russians have vehemently and consistently denied.Ukraine-Russia border, via ABC News

At the same time, it appears the Biden administration is getting creative with its sanctions and who they’re targeting. Instead of announcing new sanctions directly against Russia or Russian officials or entities, on Tuesday it was revealed in The Wall Street Journal that new action will be taken against “pro-Russian agents in Ukraine”. Thus punitive measures will for the first time be aimed squarely at those deemed Russia’s proxies on the ground in Eastern Ukraine:

As pressure mounts for the U.S. and its European allies to take swift action to deter Russian escalation, the coming action against Ukrainian individuals rather than the Russian government underscores some of the administration’s hesitation to go after Moscow directly, officials said. The U.S. and its allies hope for a diplomatic breakthrough after four rounds of talks last week failed to narrow the gap between Moscow and Western nations.

The pending sanctions, which will freeze the assets of at least four individuals, could be announced as early as Thursday. They would be the latest in a string of actions under an executive order signed by President Biden last April that aim to punish individuals associated with Russia’s foreign aggression.

Few other details have been given at this point, and it strongly suggests that as Putin doesn’t look ready to back off of demands of no further NATO expansion westward anytime soon, the Biden administration is ready to play ball on finding an off-ramp to further escalation.

However, Psaki still stressed on Tuesday, “No option is off the table, in our view.” She told reporters: “We continue to consult closely with European counterparts on severe consequences for Russia if it further invades Ukraine.”https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1483533100542046208&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fpsaki-says-russia-attack-ukraine-coming-any-point-us-sanctions-pro-russian-agents&sessionId=ecc7609cc480802478e1bcc15a4e002dd12d1620&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=86e9194f%3A1641882287124&width=550px

But some of those European counterparts are already ramping up action on their own, with Britain shipping extra military weapons via flights into Ukraine. These flights are said to include deliveries of anti-tank weapons, among other systems, after UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace briefed parliament:

“We have taken the decision to supply Ukraine with light anti-armor defensive weapon systems,” Ben Wallace told the House of Commons, adding that the first of these systems was delivered on Monday. “They are not strategic weapons and pose no threat to Russia. They are to use in self-defense.”

So the UK through this action is ready to escalate its involvement, while claiming this marks “no threat” to Russia. Russia’s military has for now provided its response to such measures in the form of snap military exercises with Belarus on Belarusian soil, close to NATO European countries and partners. 

Please awaken, your country needs you and the world needs you awake

Inbox

Robert Hryniak3:08 PM (1 hour ago)
to

The word from the top of the pyramid has come down, and that word is to stick with the playbook comrades – to vilify the Russians and steal their land at all costs. What could go wrong? Repeatedly, i said to you Russia has NO NEED of more land or resources with over $75 trillion in disclosed natural resources. It needs trade and population growth. And NO they will not go quietly into the night to be enslaved. To believe that is not understand Russian history or scarifies they have made and will make. Believe whether  man or woman they  will fight to the last breath. And they are not some banana country that western military intimidates. Nor is China and do not think their closure of certain ports to create further Supply Chain problems is not without intent to break your economy’s ability to function. 

Yesterday evening a Russian sub surfaced off Norfolk in plain view for people to see. Loaded with 16 missies containing 10 warheads each, it was a response to the American Surfaced sub 50 kilometers from Russian waters. Is this a test of nerves or stupidity? Do you not think that Russia may allow the technology to countries like Iran or China to have naval exclusion zones. They could easily do that by offering a 500 kilometer Hypersonic missile that neither have without impeding their own safety. Both Iran and China will pay handsomely for such technology. While carrier fleets of both the Brits and Americans may have illusions of naval glory, Russian planes have been equipped with missiles not yet publicly disclosed so Zircons and the like are not the problem to anticipate. They are now armed with the latest and best Russia has to defend itself. And they will be used. 


If the Russians refuse to bow and allow their people to be enslaved, which their actions express – and the result is a nuclear war – it is still a win for the conspirators. They would throw parties, mask-less mind you, at the fulfillment of a depopulation agenda. The more millions that die, the happier they are. The spice must flow. Sick as this is this is, it is the way they think. 

To my Americans friends, this is not by accident, this is all by design that your find yourselves where you are today.  Comrade Biden wants you dead. Comrade Fauci, Gates and Blinkin want you dead. Comrade Harris, Nuland and Pelosi want you dead. You’re in the way, you’re the wrong color, black or white or hispanic; you believe the wrong things; you won’t accept the death jab, and how dare you want to close the border and prevent the invasion of your nation. You’re just not a very good communist are you? You still believe in the american dream and the principles of the Founding Fathers of your nation. And you work hard and avoid handouts. Somehow, you have stayed true to your beliefs. To them you are the problem to be eliminated so their agenda can proceed. Presumably, you are unaware that in Washington State they have already built camps for you and are now trying to pass State law to put you there. And it’s why States like Florida and Texas are vilified  for giving freedom to their residents and visitors. And it is why you are seeing mass migration to States like that. 

A five-year-old can see these things are wrong and the treatment of the Russians is unfair and unjust, as is the treatment of Europeans as expendable pawns. The Ukraine is a cesspool of corruption, not worthy of time nor money, let alone dying for.  Which brings me to the leaders behind the scenes in Washington, DC and the military. Are you blind? Can’t you see the inmates are running the asylum? Can’t you see what is going on and that your nation has been overthrown? If you obey unconstitutional orders from traitors, thieves, and globalist thugs, you are as guilty as they are! Following orders from such people is not an defense, but saying NO is. And it is much better for you, your families and your fellow Americans. 

If a war starts and people die, their blood will be on YOUR hands. You will not escape retribution. Even under Stalin,  Beria used to say “ show me the man and i will show you the crime”. It will be no different as this is the way these folks think. And the true Americans will not forget! 

It is a time for Americans to awaken and stand together as brothers and sisters as Americans. This is not just for yourselves but the world needs you as a light beacon to save the rest of the world as a brother’s brother and not as brother’s keeper. 

A anxious world awaits your decision. 
CheersRobert

Russia has removed its’ diplomats from Kiev and Lviv today and their families have left by bus back to Russia. Russia has accelerated the time table for American diplomats to leave Russia and the embassy in Moscow will be on a skeleton watch or completely empty. The same is happening in Washington as Russian diplomats are leaving. It is apparent that when diplomats leave war comes soon after. There is a reason why Belarus called up its’ reserves several days ago.
Europe has less than 50% reserves of natural gas and there is NO GAS booked for February through the YAMAL pipe. How it is expected to maintain industry and heat through February into March is a mystery. And with war beckoning, whether supply will be availed by Gazprom is a worthwhile question?  Either those LNG ships are coming faster or there will be gas shortages and no doubt prices will sky rocket for gas. It is not possible with the current availed ships to supplement Russian gas nor is it cheap. As every with LNG boat load is taking full advantage for a quick buck.
Meanwhile the Brits are feeling lucky and are sending additional troops to  complement their existing forces in the Ukraine while the Germans have politely declined saying this is not our fight or in our interest. We will wait to see what the French do. The Germans are aware of what awaits and will not play. The Americans are not sending troops but have positioned their Carrier group in the Mediterranean as a strike force to attack Russia with airborne missiles at the appropriate time and shortly the British naval carrier group will be positioned in the Baltic.
Sweden has sent additional troops to Gotland Island and there have been deliveries  by US aircraft of presumably missiles. If NATO troops deploy there, it will become a real target quickly. It is likely that this island will be used to attempt to contain the  Northern Russian fleet. And if rumors are true that a assault on Kaliningrad is planned it will not end well for the aggressors. Kaliningrad may fall but it will not be without a fight and response will be devastating to the aggressors with no mercy. 

Several days ago i wrote; Russia’s Pacific Fleet’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade is crossing the entire breadth of Russia to deploy near Ukraine/Belarus. This is taking place along with several regiments from 4 armies of the Russian Far East. I have told you about a number of mile long trains carrying equipment westward from deep in eastern Russia. Of which there were 7 and I explained earlier that mobile railway based launchers were deployed around Russia and surrounding countries. Today, the troops arrived at the various staging areas they were directed to. In coming days, one might assume they will be matched up with equipment arriving by rail for deployment. Lavrov listened to Blinken’s call today but it was meaningless to deescalate matters. And no amount of flag waving will substitute for concrete action to change the threat Russia perceives. 
Complete madness, modern war offers no winners and the last thing Europe needs is a war, a needless war. And those folks who think that war invites a progress of agendas will discover the folly of misguided delusions.
Travelers to Europe should exercise caution or avoid travel to the region entirely and that includes Turkey. 
Cheers
Robert

War drums beat

Inbox

Robert Hryniak8:34 AM (42 minutes ago)
to

Russia has removed its’ diplomats from Kiev and Lviv today and their families have left by bus back to Russia. Russia has accelerated the time table for American diplomats to left Russia and the embassy in Moscow will be on a skeleton watch or completely empty. The same is happening in Washington as Russian diplomats are leaving. It is apparent that when diplomats leave war comes soon after. There is a reason why Belarus called up its’ reserves several days ago.
Europe has less than 50% reserves of natural gas and there is NO GAS booked for February through the YAMAL pipe. How it is expected to maintain industry and heat through February into March is a mystery. And with war beckoning, whether supply will be availed by Gazprom. Either those LNG ships are coming faster or there will be gas shortages and no doubt prices will sky rocket for gas. It is not possible with the current availed ships to supplement Russian gas nor is it cheap. As every with LNG is taking full advantage for a quick buck.
Meanwhile the Brits are feeling lucky and are sending additional troops to  complement their existing forces in the Ukraine while the Germans have politely declined saying this is not our fight or in our interest. We will wait to see what the French do. The Germans are aware of what awaits and will not play. The Americans are not sending troops but have positioned their Carrier group in the Mediterranean as a strike force to attack Russia with airborne missiles at the appropriate time and shortly the British naval carrier group will be positioned in the Baltic.
Sweden has sent additional troops to Gotland Island and there have been deliveries  by US aircraft of presumably missiles. It is likely that this island will be used to attempt to contain the  Northern Russian fleet. And if rumors are true that a assault on Kaliningrad is planned it will not end well for the aggressors.
Complete madness, modern war offers no winners and the last thing Europe needs is a war, a needless war. And those folks who think that war invites a progress of agendas will discover the folly of misguided delusions.
Travel should be cautious to Europe.

Cheers
Robert

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE ISSUES/

CORONAVIRUS/UPDATE/VACCINE MANDATE

end

Special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us:

(courtesy NaturalNews)

Commercial pilot says his colleagues are “dropping like flies with crushing chest pains” following covid vaccinations

Thursday, January 06, 2022 by: Ethan Huff
Tags: airlinesBlood clotsCOVIDcrushing chest painsgenocideheart attacksmyocarditispilotsvaccinationVaccine deathsVaccine injuriesvaccines
41KVIEWSImage: Commercial pilot says his colleagues are “dropping like flies with crushing chest pains” following covid vaccinations

(Natural News) American pilot Greg Pearson is speaking out about a wave of post-injection illness that he says is spreading rapidly throughout the aviation industry.

In a recent interview with “Real America’s Voice,” Pearson revealed that many of his pilot colleagues are “dropping like flies” with what he describes as severe chest pains.

Pearson himself actually had to be rushed to the hospital shortly after getting his “vaccination” for the Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) because the injection(s) caused him to develop serious heart problems.

“I went to the ER where they quickly hooked me up to EKG IVs, did blood work quickly and determined that I was in atrial fibrillation,” Pearson said during a segment of the show. “It’s the major cause of stroke.”

“I could have stroked out at 100 feet while trying to land an airplane. I could have just pushed down on that stick before the person next to me could do anything. Whereas it’s all over for a lot of people.”

Pearson says that many other pilots just like him are experiencing and observing the same, but are fearful to speak out about it. They do not want to risk getting fired or even potentially having their entire careers ruined in retaliation for telling the truth.

“There’s a number of pilots out there who are fearful to come forward and speak … They are fearful of retribution. There are guys that are going to work with crushing pains in their chests and their heads. They’re scared that they’re going to lose their careers.”

Biden is destroying the airline industry with his jab mandates

Fake “president” Joe Biden is largely responsible for all of this carnage, as are the airline CEOs and executives who are enforcing this genocide on pilots and other airplane staff.

Many of these now-suffering pilots would not have gotten injected in the first place had they not been forced to in order to keep their jobs. Now that many of them are getting really sick, they are unsure what to do or if they can even try to pursue any recourse or remedy.

Pearson’s full interview with “Real America’s Voice,” by the way, is available at Gab.

If what Pearson is saying is really true, then it appears as though flying is no longer safe. There is simply no telling which fully vaccinated pilots might start suffering an episode at random, which could spell disaster for everyone on the plane.

“All this fuss over merely a new version of the common cold,” wrote one commenter at Newspunch. “Our leaders are up to no good, as always.”

“Many years ago, my mother passed away, and I was unemployed and miserable,” wrote another. “Prozac just came out and thought it was a good idea to go get some from a doctor. It came time to renew my commercial FAA medical, and I put down that I was taking Prozac. They denied my medical.”

“Now they are mandating an experimental drug to be taken by pilots without a whim of concern. Quite unbelievable.”

Another suggested that atrial fibrillation in pilots could be the result of electrical signals.

“Something causes the ‘voltage’ to go haywire,” this person added. “I’m sure they can do it remotely. And from quite a distance too especially now with 5G.”

Yet another wrote that this is only just the beginning of the horrors that will soon come to the rest of the jabbed.

“They don’t want you to be happy,” another wrote. “They want you dead.”

More related news about the damaging effects of Chinese Virus injections can be found at ChemicalViolence.com

END

CANADA

Fully Vaccinated Canadian Soccer Star Alphonso Davies Sidelined With Myocarditis

 SUNDAY, JAN 16, 2022 – 03:00 PM

Another day, another story about a soccer player being sidelined due to sudden-onset heart-related illness. 

Continuing a disturbing trend of professional soccer players being pulled from games, Canadian star Alphonso Davies, who plays for Bayern Munich, is showing signs of an “inflammation of the heart muscle,” according to CP24

He is only 21 years old.

Davies has been ruled out of Canada’s three World Cup qualifiers set to take place in Janaury and February.

His club manager, Julian Nagelsmann, has said that the problem was caught during a follow up COVID examination.

“He’ll sit out training until further notice. He won’t be available, also in the coming weeks. The ultrasound shows this myocarditis isn’t so dramatic but it’s a sign of myocarditis. Still, it has to heal and that will definitely take some time,” the skipper commented.

He didn’t attribute the inflammation to Covid right away, stating: “There are different reasons, especially viral load or the flu, for instance, that can cause cardiac problems.”

“That occurred pre-corona to other players. Now the probability is higher if you combine corona and top athleticism, that might cause other problems. But that’s not relevant for us right now. It’s not relevant to the treatment. It doesn’t matter if Alphonso Davies had this from the flu or Omicron-Delta or whatever. That’s not really the decisive factor,” he continued.

“The situation is that it’s absolutely awful, terrible. What can I say? A bad situation for us.”

Davies has stopped training and is widely considered one of the best left backs in the world. 

He is fully vaccinated and got his booster in December, reports says.

END

We must pay attention to this:  The Canadian cross border trucking vaxx mandate is now in effect. The USA mandate starts next week.  This will make it very difficult for Canada to get food supplies and the uSA will have difficulty obtaining our commodities

(Sundance/Conservative Tree House)

Make Preparations! Canadian Cross Border Trucking Vaxx Mandate Now In Effect, Domestic Trucking Mandate Starts Next Week

 MONDAY, JAN 17, 2022 – 10:50 PM

Authored by ‘Sundance’ via TheConservativeTreehouse.com,

The cross border vaccine mandate for truckers in/out of Canada is now in effect.  The U.S. vaccine mandate takes effect on January 22nd.

It will take a few days to see the consequences, but there will be consequences.

Keep in mind, any impact is taking place in a supply chain system that is already tenuous and unstable at best.  A small disruption that may have been minimally significant against a fully operational supply chain, is more likely to be a much bigger disruption in a supply chain that is already under a severe amount of demand side stress.  Somewhere in the range of 16,000 to 38,000 daily loads are likely to be impacted.

When questioned about this, Canadian Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic Leblanc says the trucking industry “has had adequate time to prepare for this.  Keep in mind, the mandate was announced 45 days ago (November 30th).  According to the Canadian government, changing the structural rules for all the logistics and commerce in cross border shipping, 45 days is enough notice.  

WATCH:

CANADA – […] “I think you probably won’t see that movement … that the government’s looking for,” retail expert Bruce Winder told CTV News Channel on Saturday when asked if the effort will encourage truckers to get vaccinated.

[…]  The mandate throws a “major wrench” in the Canadian and North American supply chains, he added, with grocers, food producers, the auto parts industry and building materials among the sectors expected to be most affected.

“I really hope that we’re not at the stage where you see food insecurity, where you’re actually going to grocery stores and there’s nothing on the shelf,” Winder said.  “That could be the worst-case scenario.”

Mike Millian, president of the Private Motor Truck Council of Canada, told CTV News Channel on Saturday that there were as many 23,000 vacancies at the end of the third quarter of 2021, with his group’s own studies showing that roughly 20 per cent of Canadian truck drivers operating across the border are unvaccinated.

[…] “If we remove a fifth of that workforce, we’re going to see shortages on shelves and we’re going to see inflation of prices, because the cost to bring this stuff here is going to go up.”  (read more)

The truth is no one knows how bad the disruption will be.  What we do know is that there will be disruption, and there is no infrastructure for a level of rig-switching at the border crossing region that could accommodate changing rigs, drop-offs and/or pick-ups or driver transfers on the scale that is being discussed.   The logistics here are a total mess.

Keep your fingers crossed, but prepare for FUBAR.

END

Peter McCullough:  official COVID narrative has now crumbled

(Art Moore/WND.com)

Dr. Peter McCullough: Official COVID “Narrative Has Crumbled”

Tyler Durden's Photo

MONDAY, JAN 17, 2022 – 11:50 PM

Authored by Art Moore via WND.com,

Dr. Peter McCullough – a renowned cardiologist and highly published medical scientist whose confrontation of the government’s COVID-19 policies has drawn more than 40 million views on Joe Rogan’s podcast – told WND in a video interview Thursday night the official pandemic narrative that has been fiercely guarded by establishment media and social-media censors is “completely crumbling.”

That narrative, he said, included “false statements regarding asymptomatic spread, reliance on lockdown and masks – which obviously didn’t work – the suppression of early treatment, the mass promotion of vaccines that failed.”

“And now here we are, almost in complete free fall,” McCullough said, referring to the record number of COVID-19 cases as officials acknowledge the vaccines don’t prevent infection or transmission.

McCullough noted that in California, with the more contagious but much milder omicron variant now dominant, health care workers who tested positive for COVID-19 and had symptoms were told to go back to work.

“With that, I think that’s it. I think that’s the end. The narrative has crumbled. People don’t want these vaccines,” McCullough said.

“The vaccines should be pulled off the market. They clearly are not solving the problem.”

The focus, he said, should be on “treating high-risk patients who develop symptoms” with some of the early treatments that he and other physicians around the world have found to be effective, including ivermectin and a new drug granted emergency use authorization by the FDA, Paxlovid.

McCullough cited a study from Denmark and data from the U.K.’s health agency showing that the vaccines have zero effectiveness against omicron.

Completing this poll entitles you to WND news updates free of charge. You may opt out at anytime. You also agree to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.

“That’s not misinformation,” he said. “I’m just quoting the data. All of this can be looked up. Fact-checkers can look at it. I know I’ll never have any problems with allegations of misinformation, because I just quote the data.”

President Biden clearly had McCullough in mind when on Thursday he urged social media companies and media outlets to “please deal with the misinformation and disinformation that’s on your shows. It has to stop.”

McCullough pointed out his work has been relied upon by courts across the nation, including the U.S. Supreme Court, and he has testified to the U.S. Senate and will be back there later this month.

“I think America knows who is giving them the straight story.”

In the half-hour video interview with WND (embedded below), McCullough also discussed:

  • The punishment of physicians who counter the official COVID narrative and use clinically indicated, FDA-approved drugs off-label such as ivermectin to treat COVID-19 patients, including a colleague in Maine whose was ordered to undergo a psychological examination after her license was suspended;
  • His participation in a rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 23 protesting vaccine mandates;
  • The Supreme Court’s rulings Thursday on vaccine mandates;
  • The possibility that omicron could spell the end of the pandemic, serving as a “universal booster”;
  • Data showing that vaccination has backfired, making the pandemic worse in nations with high vaccine intake;
  • The lethality of the mRNA vaccines;
  • His view on Biden’s mass testing program;
  • His take on new FDA-approved treatments and his simple, inexpensive, over-the-counter protocol for treating omicron;
  • The unwillingness of so many doctors to “come off the sidelines” and treat patients for COVID-19;
  • The “crisis of competence” among top government health officials;
  • Where to find resources and support for physicians and patients, and for employees confronting mandates.

“I think Americans are going to understand that their individual choice is really what’s going to matter in the end,” he McCullough told WND in conclusion. “If Americans decide that they’re not going to take any boosters or any more vaccines, it doesn’t matter how many mandates or how many court decisions that happen. The vaccine program is going to crumble. I think it’s just a matter of saying no.”

He emphasized that the vaccines are still “research.”

“No one can be forced into it,” he said of vaccination. “And they’re not turning out to be safe or effective. So, if  everybody just stands firm and declines the vaccines, I think that will be the quickest way for us to get out of this.”

See the WND interview with Dr. Peter McCullough:

McCullough, in a video interview with WND in December, called for a “pivot” from the current policies to early treatment and “compassionate care” for those who have COVID or have suffered vaccine injuries, which have included myocarditis, neurological issues and blood clotting.

“Now is the time for doctors to step up. Now is not a time for rhetoric or harsh statements regarding scientific discourse,” he said.

Many of McCullough’s 600 peer-reviewed publications have appeared in top-tier journals such as the New England Journal of Medicine, Journal of the American Medical Association and The Lancet. He testified to the U.S. Senate in November 2020 against what he described as the federal government’s politicization of health care during the pandemic, curbing or blocking the availability of cheap, effective treatments. In a speech in September, he told of having been stripped of the editorship of a Swiss-based journal after having lost his position with a major health system, “with no explanation and no due process.” Baylor University Medical Center fired him in February. And Texas A&M College of Medicine, Texas Christian University and University of North Texas Health Science Center School of Medicine have cut ties with McCullough, accusing him of spreading misinformation.

“I’ve been stripped of every title that I’ve ever had in that institution. I’ve received a threat letter from the American College of Physicians, [and] a threat letter from the American Board,” he said in September.

All because of his “lawful” participation “in a topic of public importance.”

He said there are “powerful forces at work, far more powerful than we can possibly think of, that are influencing anybody who is in a position of authority.”

McCullough is the chief medical adviser for the Truth for Health Foundation, a physician-founded charity that says it is “dedicated to following the Oath of Hippocrates to serve individual patients to the best of our ability and judgement and to uphold the highest standards of medical ethics.”

END

2 Mouthwashes Disrupt the Coronavirus in Lab Tests

Inbox

Chris Powell11:37 AM (2 hours ago)
to me

2 Mouthwashes Disrupt the Coronavirus in Lab Tests

From Rutgers University
via The Epoch Times, New Yor
Monday, January 17, 2022

https://www.theepochtimes.com/2-mouthwashes-disrupt-the-coronavirus-in-lab-tests_4217951.html

Two types of mouthwash disrupt SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, preventing it from replicating in a human cell, a new study suggests.

The study in the journal Pathogens finds that, in a laboratory setting, Listerine and the prescription mouthwash Chlorhexidine disrupted the virus within seconds after researchers diluted it to concentrations that would mimic actual use.

Further studies are needed to test real-life efficacy in humans.

Researchers conducted the study in a lab using concentrations of the mouthwash and the time it would take to contact tissues to replicate conditions found in the mouth, says senior author Daniel H. Fine, chair of the oral biology department at Rutgers University’s School of Dental Medicine.

The study found two other mouthwashes showed promise in potentially providing some protection in preventing viral transmission: Betadine, which contains povidone iodine, and Peroxal, which contains hydrogen peroxide. However, only Listerine and Chlorhexidine disrupted the virus with little impact on skin cells inside the mouth that provide a protective barrier against the virus.

“Both Povidone iodine and Peroxal caused significant skin cell death in our studies, while both Listerine and Chlorhexidine had minimal skin cell killing at concentrations that simulated what would be found in daily use,” Fine says.

Researchers studied the efficacy of mouthwash potential for preventing viral transmission to better understand how dental providers can stay protected from aerosols that patients exhale.

“As dentists, we’re right there in a patient’s face. We wanted to know if there’s something that might lower the viral load,” says coauthor Eileen Hoskin, an assistant professor at the School of Dental Medicine.

Fine cautions the public against relying on mouthwash as a way to slow the spread until it is proven in clinical trials on humans.

“The ultimate goal would be to determine whether rinsing two or three times a day with an antiseptic agent with active anti-viral activity would have the potential to reduce the ability to transmit the disease. But this needs to be investigated in a real-world situation,” he says.

Previous research has shown various types of antiseptic mouthwashes can disrupt the novel coronavirus and temporarily prevent transmission, but this was one of the first studies that examined antiseptic rinse concentrations, time of contact, and the skin-cell killing properties that simulated oral conditions.

A team of dental school scientists and virologist at the Public Health Research Institute conducted the study.

“Since the SARS CoV-2 virus responsible for COVID-19 enters primarily through the oral and nasal cavity, oral biologists should be included in these studies because they have an in-depth understanding of oral infectious diseases,” Fine says.

This article was originally published by Rutgers University. Republished via Futurity.org

Cureus | Ivermectin Prophylaxis Used for COVID-19: A Citywide, Prospective, Observational Study of 223,128 Subjects Using Propensity Score Matching

Inbox

Mark Organ

Excellent study. Lots of people in it.

https://www.cureus.com/articles/82162-ivermectin-prophylaxis-used-for-covid-19-a-citywide-prospective-observational-study-of-223128-subjects-using-propensity-score-matching

end

VACCINE IMPACT

Up to 65% Increase in Deaths Among 18-49 Year Olds in the U.S. During 2021, the Year of the Experimental COVID “Vaccines”

January 17, 2022 2:25 pm

Earlier this month (January, 2022), Scott Davison, the CEO of OneAmerica, a $100 billion insurance company based out of Indiana, made headline news in the Alternative Media when he announced that the death rate on life insurance claims skyrocketed an unprecedented 40% among those between the ages of 18 and 64 in 2021. I did my own investigation to corroborate what he was reporting, and examined the number of deaths the CDC was reporting through December, 2020, before they revised their website and changed the total number of people who died in 2020, the year the pandemic scam started, which clearly showed that total deaths in 2020 were about the same as the previous two years, and that all they basically did was eliminate most of the flu deaths and blame those on COVID-19. The result of this investigation was that we saw about an additional 400,000 deaths in 2021, the year of the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out. Since publishing that report, Petr Svab of the Epoch Times has also done an investigation on this issue, looking at death certificates from the CDC website of people between the age of 18 and 49 in 2021. He examined the data by state, and he found that in some states the deaths in this age group had increased by as much as 65% compared to the same period in 2018 and 2019. Petr Svab was careful to not link or blame the excess in deaths to the COVID-19 shots, probably to avoid the “fact checkers” from trying to discredit his investigation. But the correlation to the COVID-19 shots now is irrefutable, just from using the U.S. Government’s own data from the CDC, and also from the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS). This is a national catastrophe of the magnitude that this nation has never before faced, and the total collapse of the United States now seems inevitable.Read More…

GLOBAL STORIES/covid

Senior Israeli immunologist blasts mass vaccination, COVID restrictions in powerful letter


‘There is currently no medical emergency,’ Dr. Ehud Qimron told the Israeli government. ‘The only emergency now is that you still set policies and hold huge budgets for propaganda and psychological engineering.’Featured ImageCoronavirus vaccine in IsraelShutterstock


Raymond
Wolfe

  • 32

Fri Jan 14, 2022 – 10:44 pm EST

TEL AVIV, Israel (LifeSiteNews) – A top immunologist in Israel criticized mass vaccination for COVID-19 and blasted officials who have “branded” the unvaccinated “as spreaders of the disease” in a powerful letter to the Israeli Ministry of Health.

The letter, written by Professor Ehud Qimron, head of the Department of Microbiology and Immunology at Tel Aviv University, picks apart vaccine-focused COVID strategies embraced by governments around the world, which Qimron derided as “doomed to fail.”

“Two years late, you finally realize that a respiratory virus cannot be defeated and that any such attempt is doomed to fail,” he wrote to the Israeli health ministry. “You do not admit it, because you have admitted almost no mistake in the last two years, but in retrospect it is clear that you have failed miserably in almost all of your actions, and even the media is already having a hard time covering your shame.”

Qimron slammed Israeli officials for refusing to acknowledge that COVID-19 jabs won’t stop the virus or bring herd immunity, which the government’s vaccination campaign “failed” to achieve.

“You refused to admit that the infection comes in waves that fade by themselves, despite years of observations and scientific knowledge,” he said. “You refused to admit that recovery is more protective than a vaccine, despite previous knowledge and observations showing that non-recovered vaccinated people are more likely to be infected than recovered people.”

“You refused to admit that the vaccinated are contagious despite the observations. Based on this, you hoped to achieve herd immunity by vaccination — and you failed in that as well.”

The senior immunologist also condemned the Israeli government for “ignoring the fact that the disease is dozens of times more dangerous for risk groups and older adults, than for young people who are not in risk groups, despite the knowledge that came from China as early as 2020.”

At the same time, authorities never set up an effective system to monitor the side effects of vaccination – which disproportionately impact younger populations – while retaliating against doctors who reported vaccine injuries, Qimron said. “Doctors avoid linking side effects to the vaccine, lest you persecute them as you did with some of their colleagues,” he charged.

Young people face little risk of death or serious illness from COVID-19, with a survival rate no lower than 99.9 percent for those under 40, according to estimates by Stanford University professor Dr. John Ioannidis.

Research shows that the vaccines actually cause greater harm than the virus itself for younger age groups. A study published last month by British researchers found that the jabs increase the risk of potentially life-threatening heart inflammation in men under 40 years old significantly more than COVID-19 and may result in more deadly forms of the heart condition.

“You have ignored many reports of changes in menstrual intensity and menstrual cycle times,” Qimron noted in his letter to the health ministry. “You hid data that allows for objective and proper research. Instead, you chose to publish non-objective articles together with senior Pfizer executives on the effectiveness and safety of vaccines.”

‘The truth will be revealed’

Public health officials “have also ignored the fact that in the end the truth will be revealed,” however, the professor said. “And it begins to be revealed.”

“The truth is that you have brought the public’s trust in you to an unprecedented low, and you have eroded your status as a source of authority,” he accused, pointing to heightened rates of mental issues and misbehavior among Israeli students during COVID restrictions.

“You have destroyed the education of our children and their future,” said Qimron. “You made children feel guilty, scared, smoke, drink, get addicted, drop out, and quarrel, as school principals around the country attest. You have harmed livelihoods, the economy, human rights, mental health and physical health.”

Israel has been known for one of world’s harshest COVID-19 responses, repeatedly ordering weeks-long, national lockdowns and introducing a vaccination “green pass” to access all but “essential” sectors of the economy. The country lifted most restrictions last summer, but brought them back in August as vaccinated people overwhelmed Israeli hospitals amid vaccine failure.

But that didn’t stop health authorities from pitting people against the unvaccinated and framing them as “spreaders of disease” and “enemies of the public,” according to Qimron:

You slandered colleagues who did not surrender to you, you turned the people against each other, divided society and polarized the discourse. You branded, without any scientific basis, people who chose not to get vaccinated as enemies of the public and as spreaders of disease. You promote, in an unprecedented way, a draconian policy of discrimination, denial of rights and selection of people, including children, for their medical choice. A selection that lacks any epidemiological justification.

Qimron specifically pointed to the Great Barrington Declaration, a statement that advises limited COVID restrictions and targeted protection of high-risk groups, signed by more than 60,000 scientists and medical professionals across the globe. Israeli officials chose to “ridicule, slander, distort and discredit” the signers while pushing policies that “only added victims beyond the vulnerable to the virus” Qimron said.

“The economy you ruined, the unemployed you caused, and the children whose education you destroyed – they are the surplus victims as a result of your own actions only.”

“There is currently no medical emergency,” the immunologist continued. “The only emergency now is that you still set policies and hold huge budgets for propaganda and psychological engineering instead of directing them to strengthen the health care system.”

“This emergency must stop!”

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

Michael Every..

Rabobank: “It Is Unclear How Much Longer The Idiot Liquidity Will Flow”

TUESDAY, JAN 18, 2022 – 09:50 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Yesterday’s China data’s first surprise was that retail sales were only up 1.7% y/y vs. 3.8% expected in December, although at 12.5% y/y year-to-date vs. 12.7% expected, this implied some significant revisions. The second, as flagged, was that Q4 GDP came in above expectations at 1.6% q/q, 4.0% y/y, with 8.1% year-to-date. This is unlikely to capture the reality of an imploding property sector, rolling blackouts, a surge in PPI, and a slumping consumer, but the market didn’t ask any questions, as usual; and it was a nice upbeat backdrop to Xi Jinping’s virtual presentation to Davos, which stuck to the usual script – stronger international cooperation in overcoming shared global challenges including defeating COVID-19, revitalizing the economy, and addressing climate change. That was all red meat to platitude-seeking algos.

Yet underlining the GDP data were not as good as appeared, the PBOC cut its benchmark rate 10bp to 2.85%, the first decrease since April 2020, as well the 7-day reverse repo rate from 2.2% to 2.1%. Yes, things are going *so* well that just as the Fed looks set to hike 2, 4, 6 or 7 times in 2022, the PBOC is cutting. Markets chose to focus on the apparently bullish nature of such a move, ignoring the fact that we will need to see at least 10 times that cut to stabilize the economy, as the Fed goes the other way. The real interest will then be on CNY again once: and if USD/CNY was a truly freely traded cross, we might already be seeing this being priced in.

Not so much market focus was placed on the Chinese demographic data also releasedwhich showed a further precipitous decline in births that some demographers believe is still over-reporting the actual numbers (as they say so did past data when looking at births vs. school enrolment and hukou registration numbers). If the present trend is maintained –and marriage rates continued to fall sharply in 2021; and nobody else has turned that kind of demographic decline around so far– then by 2100, China’s population will be less than that of the US, and even by 2050 there will be 200m fewer people. Yes, there will be automation: but there are going to have to be *a lot* of robots to keep GDP growing at the kind of goal-seeking rates we associate as normal in China. That is going to impact on demand for a whole host of products, including red meat. How does that sit with the 45-degree straight lines for future demand I see in management-consultant presentations? (Or platitude-seeking algos?) Life offers us much more gristle, sadly.  

In the UK, PM BYO’s new ‘Red Meat’ politics campaign is not just going after the easy target of BBC ‘pinkos’ and a scorched earth policy for any cabinet minister or civil servant who has ever had a glass of wine. Ominously, it combines the two via delivering anti-tank missiles and elite British troops to Ukraine: “Wag the Dog!”, as some will bark, but this is not yet working, in that former policy supremo Dominic “eye-sight” Cummings is still the top headline of the Daily Mail, claiming BYO lied to parliament and more photos of wine and wine fridges are yet to come. Even Meghan Markle, also having a pop at the Beeb, is the second headline. The threat of war with a nuclear power comes in a distant third. Whether this says more about the public, press, BYO, or UK geostrategists is unclear, but I feel the sudden need for a glass of wine for breakfast – and I don’t even drink. Crucially, this UK move escalates the Ukraine situation further from the Russian perspective: it breaches a clear red line to them. Logically, it also underlines the need for others to act in coordination to ensure that such overwhelming force is put in place that is helps deter aggression.

Yet as the UK digs into red meat, Germany ‘goes vegan’ – apart from its vegans! The UK is shuttling this military equipment to Ukraine while avoiding German airspace. Indeed, yesterday saw Berlin agree that while fully backing Ukraine if it has to fight, they won’t supply it with any arms if it has to, for historical reasons. They will do the nursing. (Literally.) That seems noble….until you consider Germany sold USD10bn in arms to other nations in 2021. Moreover, the cabinet cannot agree to any new Russian sanctions either: the SPD won’t threaten NordStream 2 (“Schroederisation”); the CDU won’t threaten car exports (“Merkelcantilism”); and only the vegan Greens appear to have any grasp of the meaning of “realpolitik”. None of this makes me feel like underlying risks are receding. Quite the opposite, in fact.

Sticking with the red meat theme, Israeli scientists have stumbled across a new technique for massively speeding up the process of cultivating lab meat. If that proves the case, one wonders what the impact is for some of the ‘meat and potatoes’ of the geopolitics we see playing out around us.

Meanwhile, for those who think they are ‘red-pilled’ enough to grasp all the meaty risks I speak of and think that crypto is a safe ‘way out’, consider that even there we see a gap between ‘steak’ and lab-grown artificiality.

Yes, Tesla will let you pay for merchandise (not cars) with the joke-turned-‘currency’, Dogecoin. But China is saying it will soon launch its own official state-backed NFTs –or ‘NF-Xis’?– which underlines how the state is going to be moving into this (cyber)space. As does the US IRS saying it is coming for your crypto gains. Meanwhile, Fitch is downgrading El Salvador’s credit rating because of the drop in the price of Bitcoin, which it had just started accepting.

But the most recent example to tickle me is crypto collective @TheSpiceDAO proudly telling Twitter they have snapped up a rare physical copy of a hardback book about the aborted making of Jodorowsky’s ‘Dune’ film. (Which, planned to star Orson Welles, Mick Jagger, David Carradine and even Salvador Dali, would probably not have been like watching sand dry, as the 2021 iteration was.) As the group proudly declare: “We won the auction for €2.66M. Now our mission is to: 1. Make the book public (to the extent permitted by law); 2. Produce an original animated limited series inspired by the book and sell it to a streaming service; 3. Support derivative projects from the community.” As others immediately pointed out, if you buy a copy of a ‘Spiderman’ comic, you can show it to your friends, but you do not get the rights to make Spiderman films or derivative community projects. So these guys overpaid 10x the auction asking price for a *second-hand book*. Mentats, they ain’t. But I am sure an NFT scheme will soon be launched to try to cover those massive losses: “The spice must flow!”

So must the red meat, apparently. I am not sure how much longer the idiot liquidity will though.  


.

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil Soars To 7 Year High As Goldman Sees Brent Hitting $105 In 2023

 TUESDAY, JAN 18, 2022 – 10:09 AM

It’s a bloody day for risk assets, with tech names plunging, yields surging, and even that “industrial bellwether”, the Dow Jones, set for a big drop with two of its four biggest constituents – Goldman (#2 at 7% weight) and Microsoft (#4 at 5.7% weight) – sinking on poor earnings and a whopper of an acquisition, respectively. But not everything is tumbling: oil just hit the highest price since 2014..

… barely a few weeks after a panicking Joe Biden, who realizes that surging inflation will destroy his presidency…

… released oil from the US strategic petroleum reserve, a move which we and many others warned is catastrophically stupid, even for someone with Joe’s cognitive abilities.

And while we wait for Biden’s next, even dumber, move to send oil shooting to all time highs, there is nothing but upside for black gold amid what appears to be a perfect storm of bullish news, starting with strained supplies which make physical markets run hot  in Asia, the world’s largest consuming region, which along with geopolitical tensions and persistent supply concerns have helped spike crude prices. As Bloomberg reports, the physical crude market in Asia is showing further signs of strength, bolstering the outlook for higher futures prices, while yesterday’s drone attack on the UAE by Iran-backed Yemeni fighters has ratcheted up security risks in the oil-exporting region at a critical time.

Then there was news that Russia may be able to deliver only about half of its scheduled increases in crude production over the next six months, followed by an announcement from energy giant Exxon Mobil in which it described an “ambition” to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from its operations by 2050, the first time the oil giant has made such a long-term pledge on carbon, an ESG promise which explicitly suggests even more output will be trimmed in coming decades.

At the same time, in its monthly oil report, OPEC said it expects global oil markets to remain “well-supported” this year by robust demand and with stockpiles considerably below their 5-year average, the market’s strength will persist, even as central banks tighten monetary policy: “The impact of the omicron variant is projected to be mild and short- lived.”

Last but perhaps most important, Goldman published a report late on Monday in which the bank’s commodity strategist, Damien Sourvalin, hiked his brent price target to $96 in 2022 and $105 in 2023, because according to the bank, those are the prices “required to reach necessary spare capacity and stock builds.”

Below we excerpt some more from the Goldman report:

Robust fundamentals have reversed last year’s oil price melt-down, with the market remaining in a surprisingly large deficit as the Omicron demand hit is so far smaller (and likely briefer) than that of Delta exc. China.

While the hit to Chinese demand will be large due to its zero-Covid policy (-0.5 mb/d in 1H22), we see it offset by strong demand in 4Q21, gas-to-oil substitution and supply disappointments.

Net, we expect inventory draws to narrow but persist through1Q22, with the global surplus in 2Q22 smaller than seasonal at 0.4 mb/d (we are pushing our Iran ramp-up to 2Q23 given the lack of progress on negotiations).

By summer, this will bring OECD inventories to their lowest level since 2000 alongside a decline in OPEC+ spare capacity to historically low levels of c.1.2mb/d. At $85/bbl, the market would remain at such critical levels, insufficient buffers relative to demand and supply volatilities, through 2023.

As the six precedents since 1990 invariably show, consumers attempting to secure physical supply will first drive backwardation steeper, at which point the unwind of producer hedges and consumer forward buying will lead long-dated prices higher, normalizing inventories and spare capacity through the combination of demand destruction and higher supply. We believe the market needs to solve for this once again, with the prospect of long-term shortages leading to near-term surpluses.

At our updated demand and supply elasticities, we model this rebalancing will require long-dated prices rising to $90/bbl, bringing our Brent spot forecast to$105/bbl in 2023 (with 2022 at $96/bbl). At such prices, we estimate that the rebalancing will be achieved through 0.6 mb/d of demand reduction, although to still record high and above consensus levels, with shale growing 0.8 mb/d YoY in2023. We are positioned for such a rebalancing process through our long BrentDec-22 vs. Dec-23 and long Dec-23 Brent trade recommendations.

Importantly, Goldman says that it is not forecasting Brent trading above $100/bbl on an argument of running out of oil as the shale resources is still large and elastic. This mechanism will, however, require “ever rising oil prices given the reluctance to invest in oil during the energy transition and the gradual depletion of shale’s geological, midstream and service capacities.”

It’s not just Goldman which is warning that much more oil will need to be pumped in the coming months (at much higher prices). According to analytics firm Kayrros, global crude inventories were at 2.834b bbls as of Jan. 9, near the lowest since October 2019. That compares with 3.090b bbls a year earlier. Onshore crude stockpiles have been consistently drawing in the past year, led by declines in China and the U.S. In China, inventories were 923m bbls as of Jan. 9 vs 1.006b bbls a year earlier. This echoes Goldman’s observation that the global oil market has been in a larger deficit than even the bank’s above consensus forecast, with deficits of -2.4/-1.4/-1 mb/d in November-January, 0.5 mb/d larger than expected, bringing global inventories c.200 mb below their Dec-19 pre-Covid levels.

In short, much to the humiliation and embarrassment of hyperinflation Joe, oil will hit $100 before it hits $70 again.

Meanwhile, those long energy names are are gloating as virtually everything else in the market is crashing: the S&P 500 Energy Sector Index rose 1.4% to its highest level since April 2019. Among the standouts are Occidental Petroleum which posted the biggest gain, rising 3.8%, other notable risers include Devon Energy +3%,  APA Corp +2.6%, ConocoPhillips +2.4% and Exxon Mobil +2.2%, which remarkably still has a dividend yield just shy of 5%.

The full must-read Goldman report is available to professional subs in the usual place.

  

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL//COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

AUSTRALIA

This is going on everywhere: fully vaccinated in hospital surpass unvaccinated

Khelev/EpochTimes

Fully Vaccinated Australians In Hospital For COVID-19 Surpass Unvaccinated

 FRIDAY, JAN 14, 2022 – 11:00 PM

Authored by Daniel Khmelev via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

For the first time, New South Wales (NSW) has seen more fully vaccinated patients hospitalised with COVID-19 compared to the number of unvaccinated patients as the Omicron outbreak continues to edge toward its peak.Emergency Medicine Specialist Dr Kevin Maruno and medical team take a suspected COVID-19 patient in to the isolation ward in the Red zone of the Emergency Department at St Vincent’s Hospital in Sydney, Australia on Jun. 4, 2020. (Photo by Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images)

Data published by the NSW government’s COVID-19 Critical Intelligence Unit has revealed that as of Jan. 9, 68.9 percent of COVID-19 patients aged 12 and over in hospitals had two doses of the vaccine, with 28.8 percent unvaccinated.

The number of double-dose vaccinated patients in intensive care units (ICUs) also surpassed those of the unvaccinated, with 50.3 percent of the vaccinated presenting to ICU with COVID-19, more than the 49.1 percent who are unvaccinated.

However, based on the data presented, unvaccinated individuals appear to be six times more likely to be hospitalised and nearly 13 times more likely to be sent to ICU than those who are fully vaccinated.

This is considering that the number of unvaccinated patients appears to be over-represented in the figures—7.3 percent of the NSW population aged 12 and over at the time were unvaccinated, but they made up half of the COVID-19 ICU patients in the NSW Health system. At present Australia does not permit alternative treatment approaches utilised and available in other countries, such as ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine.Percentage of COVID-19 hospitalisations in New South Wales based on weekly reported data by the NSW COVID-19 Critical Intelligence Unit between Oct. 31, 2021 and Jan. 9, 2022. Vaccinated refers to those receiving two doses of an eligible vaccine. The graph has been smoothed for days between each reported week end. Points between Dec. 12, 2021 and Jan. 2, 2022 have been linearly interpolated due to data unavailability. (The Epoch Times)

According to NSW Health95.1 percent of people aged 16 and over have received the first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, and 93.7 percent have received two doses as of Jan. 11.

The rise in the proportion of hospitalisations amongst the fully vaccinated comes both amid the spread of the Omicron variant of the CCP virus in Australia, along with the loss in the efficacy of the available COVID-19 vaccines.

A spokesperson for NSW Health told The Epoch Times on Jan. 11 that Omicron had supplanted Delta as the primary variant spreading in NSW, but that it also appeared to be less dangerous than its predecessor.

The Omicron variant is associated with a lower rate of hospitalisation and ICU admission,” the spokesperson said.

While the state recorded 32,155 cases of the virus on Jan. 9, 2,030 were hospitalised, and only 159 had been sent to ICU. As of Jan. 12, the total number of cases has jumped to 53,909, with 2,242 hospitalised and 175 in ICU.

“NSW Health urges the community to continue to practise COVID-safe behaviours to keep themselves and the community safe, including wearing a mask indoors, maintaining physical distancing, and practising hand hygiene.”People arrive to be vaccinated at the New South Wales Health mass vaccination hub at Homebush in Sydney, Australia, on Aug. 23, 2021. (Photo by Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images)

The spokesperson also reminded those eligible to receive their third booster dose of an available COVID-19 vaccine—which can now be done four months after receiving the second dose—to raise the effectiveness of immunity granted by the vaccine.

“We continue to encourage everyone who has not yet done so to get vaccinated and anyone who is now eligible for their booster dose to get it without delay. The COVID-19 vaccines available in Australia are safe and very effective at reducing the risk of serious illness and death.”

In the United States, it has been reported that 2 out of the three available COVID-19 vaccines dropped below 50 percent efficacy after six months, according to a study published in November 2021.

To combat this, NSW has mandated booster shots for all education staff, joining other states that have implemented vaccine booster requirements.

NSW is also currently working to better understand the effects of the new COVID-19 variants.

“NSW Health is prioritising the whole genome sequencing of COVID-19 for patients in ICU in order to better understand the impact of both the Delta and Omicron variants,” the spokesperson said.endIsanityDjoko deported and cannot come to play in Australia for 3 years

Djokovic Deported After Losing Visa Appeal, Faces 3-Year Ban From Australia

 SUNDAY, JAN 16, 2022 – 10:32 AM

Authored by Nina Nguyen and Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times,

Novak Djokovic flew out of Australia and is facing a three-year ban from the country after the full federal court ruled on Sunday evening to dismiss his challenge to a government decision revoking his visa.

Chief Justice James Allsop said that Djokovic’s application to overturn the Australian immigration minister’s cancellation of his visa had been dismissed unanimously by himself as part of the court’s three-judge panel, alongside Justice Anthony Besanko and Justice David O’Callaghan, after almost eight hours of deliberations on Sunday. All costs are to be paid for by Djokovic.

The Serbian player went to the airport in Melbourne just hours later. Federal agents escorted him and his team from the business lounge to the gate, where he boarded an Emirates flight bound for Dubai. The flight took off shortly before 11 p.m.

Allsop offered to hear further arguments from both parties on the decision, which was given as soon as possible given the wider implications and international attention on the case, as well as Djokovic’s first round Australian Open game against fellow Serb Miomir Kecmanovic that was scheduled for Monday.

However, the world number one tennis player’s legal team declined the invitation.

As a result, he lost his chance to defend his grand slam title at the Australian Open. A draw has decided that Salvatore Caruso will replace the number one seed in the Australian Open first round.

Serbia’s Novak Djokovic holds the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup after defeating Russia’s Daniil Medvedev in the men’s singles final at the Australian Open tennis championship in Melbourne, Australia, on Feb. 21, 2021. (Hamish Blair/AP Photo)

Allsop said that the court’s reasons for its dismissal would be published as soon as possible. He noted that the decision of the Commonwealth judicial branch of government was not about whether a minister from the executive branch of government made the right decision to deny entry to the tennis star, but was about whether Immigration Minister Alex Hawke’s decision was lawful or legal in the context of the three grounds put forward by Djokovic’s appeal.

“These grounds focused on whether the decision was, for different reasons, irrational or legally unreasonable,” Allsop said.

“It is no part of the function of the court to decide upon the merits or wisdom of the [government’s] decision.”

In a statement, Djokovic said that while he respected the ruling, he was “extremely disappointed with the court ruling … which means I cannot stay in Australia and participate in the Australian Open.”

I will now be taking some time to rest and to recuperate, before making any further comments beyond this,” he said, while thanking his team and fans for their support, and asking for their focus to now return to supporting the tournament.

He added that he will be cooperating with the Australian authorities “in relation to my departure from the country.”

Meanwhile, Hawke applauded the court’s upholding his decision to exercise his power under the Migration Act, stressing the importance of Australia’s strong border protection in “safeguarding Australia’s social cohesion.”

“Australia’s strong border protection policies have kept us safe during the pandemic, resulting in one of the lowest death rates, strongest economic recoveries, and highest vaccination rates in the world.

“Australians have made great sacrifices to get to this point and the Morrison Government is firmly committed to protecting this position, as the Australian people expect,” he said in a statement.

The minister added that with Djokovic being viewed as an “icon,” the player’s presence in Australia could excite anti-vaccination sentiment, derail Australia’s vaccination efforts, and ultimately affect the health system.

Djokovic’s lawyers had challenged in court that there was “no evidence” that such a scenario would occur, stressing that Djokovic’s deportation and the government’s “coercive action” would also achieve the same effect.

The immigration minister’s sentiment was echoed by Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who stated that the visa cancellation was “made on health, safety, and good order grounds, on the basis that it was in the public interest to do so.”

“I welcome the decision to keep our borders strong and keep Australians safe,” Morrison said.

Australian tennis player Nick Kyrgios, who previously criticised the Australian government’s “embarrassing” handling of the visa saga, expressed disappointment at the court’s decision on social media.

The world number one’s visa was initially cancelled on Jan. 6 at Melbourne’s international airport hours after Djokovic arrived to participate in the first Grand Slam of 2022 by a border official who said Djokovic did not qualify for a medical exemption.

The federal circuit court later overturned this decision, only for Hawke later to step in and revoke the visa again

 end

.

Luongo: We Are All Djokovic, Now!

MONDAY, JAN 17, 2022 – 08:30 PM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

When I’ve talked in the past about the patchwork tyranny post COVID-9/11, I had more mundane things in mind than the fate of a major tennis star.

Novak Djokovic was deported from Australia on Sunday after his appeal to reinstate his visa failed. And it failed not for health reasons but for political ones.

To me, the kinds of terrible rules put in place for ‘public safety’ always conjure up images of casual oppression. Endless videos of pathetic public servants intimidating priests in churches or police arresting pub owners for serving willing patrons.

But it goes far deeper than that. It’s impossible to even conceive of the ways petty bureaucrats and middle managers around the world have destroyed the lives of ordinary people simply trying to get through the day because of a flu.

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 insanity Australia has been the poster child for this kind of thoughtless crime against common decency.

Australian Immigration Minister Alex Hawke’s decision to revoke Djokovic’s visa was made for political reasons. He didn’t try to hide it. If anything, he was proud of this decision.

Hawke said he accepted Djokovic’s recent Covid-19 infection meant he was a “negligible risk to those around him”, but that he was “perceived by some as a talisman of a community of anti-vaccine sentiment”.

“I consider that Mr Djokovic’s ongoing presence in Australia may lead to an increase in anti-vaccination sentiment generated in the Australian community, potentially leading to an increase in civil unrest of the kind previously experienced in Australia with rallies and protests which may themselves be a source of community transmission.

“Mr Djokovic is … a person of influence and status.

“Having regard to … Mr Djokovic’s conduct after receiving a positive Covid-19 result, his publicly stated views, as well as his unvaccinated status, I consider that his ongoing presence in Australia may encourage other people to disregard or act inconsistently with public health advice and policies in Australia.”

These are the words of the committed totalitarian. He hides it behind his public responsibilities, in this case the health status of an entire nation. If he’s not being controlled by outside forces (yeah, right) then he’s been infected with that dangerous solipsism which comes with this much raw power.

That corruption cannot be avoided.

But Hawke’s decision stems from Australia’s backing themselves into the corner over COVID-9/11 policy. They cannot be seen as backing down for anyone, especially someone like Djokovic.

To do so, as Hawke points out, would invite questioning the policy. And their policy is sacrosanct.

However, having admitted that Djokovic posed almost no threat of spreading COVID-9/11 the only thing at stake was the Australian government’s power.

This type of decision reveals 1) how deeply unpopular the COVID-9/11 rules are in Australia and 2) how weak the Aussie government’s hold over its people really is.

They could have weathered this if they had just quietly let Djokovic into the country to compete. They could have spun it had they wanted to.

They chose escalating the standoff to make an example of him to the unvaxxed population. There is no hope. You will submit. If we can humiliate Djokovic, just imagine what we can do to you.

And they revealed just how desperate they are.

Bureaucrats like Hawke have no sense of the politics of their decisions. They are order-takers, not order-makers. He was ordered to do this. When this standoff started it was during the height of the big push to drive fear over the Omicron variant of COVID-9/11.

That rollout failed spectacularly.

Omicron has flared up and out so quickly this affair now looks like the most insane application of government paranoia this side of Pyongyang.

Those that started this standoff created the mess and didn’t have the sense to clean it up.

Because they insist on building trailer parks in the face of a Cat-5 hurricane of public anger.

They hoped to send the message that no one can escape the jab. The Davos agenda of health passes and total technocratic control is inevitable. It’s the EU variant of the virus which Hawke’s immigration policies couldn’t stop coming to Australia.

What they wound up with is a whole lotta people shaking their heads.

But, don’t think for a second Australia is done sending messages to the untermenschen. Now, after he’s been deported, barred from competing and earning his living, Djokovic is liable for all the court costs associated with this decision.

Those costs are estimated to be $500,000.

The three judge panel that upheld the lower court ruling avoided any responsibility in the matter, neatly throwing the decision right back on Minister Hawke. Prime Minister Scott Morrison, clearly one of the people pushing this disaster behind the scenes, also left Hawke out to dry.

Next up for Djokovic will a standoff with France over the French Open. France and Davos will hound him until he submits because they think he cares more about his 21st Grand Slam title than he does his own health. It guess they didn’t get his message during the Australian affair.

But their message is very clear. We are in charge. We can make whatever rules we deem necessary. If you challenge them not only will we deny your challenge on arbitrary grounds but we’ll bankrupt you in the process.

And here I thought we in the post-enlightenment West could petition our governments over unjust laws. I thought this was the first world and not some tin pot dictatorship of thin-lipped, fat-headed midwits?

Only the most insane people are cheering this decision today. They are a part of the 29% of Democrats in the US who believe the unvaxxed should have their children taken from them. Sadly, there are still too many in the thrall of the COVID-9/11 mind virus.

But, if you didn’t get the message before the persecution of Novak Djokovic, I hope you get it now. And I hope he continues to be an example for the rest of us.

*  *  *

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.1391 DOWN .0019 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED  

USA/ YEN 114.56  DOWN  0.020 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3601  DOWN   0.0046

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 28.25 OR 0.80%

  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 105.25 PTS OR 0.43%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.04%   // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I)EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED   

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG  CLOSED DOWN 105.25 OR  0.43%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 28.25  PTS OR 0.80%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.04%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 76.27 PTS OR 0.27%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1815.40

silver:$22.99-

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 95.40  UP 14  CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.60% UP 5  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.152% UP 2 AND 1/10   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.67%// UP 4   in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 1.32 UP 5    points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 65 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO -0.045% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.32% AND NOW ABOVE   THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.132  DOWN .0078    or 78 basis points

USA/Japan: 114.63 UP 0.0057 OR YEN DOWN 6  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3580 DOWN 67  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DWN 20 pts to 1.2536

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED DOWN)..6.3530  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.3596

TURKISH LIRA:  13.63  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.152

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 6 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.848% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.174  UP 5 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 95.75  UP 49   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

  Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 41.14 PTS OR 0.54%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 146.57 points or 0.92%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 56.55 PTS OR  0.78% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 52.10PTS OR .59%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 187.178 PTS OR 0.69%

WTI Oil price 84.67    12: EST

Brent Oil:  86.9512:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:   76.71 THE CROSS HIGHER BY  38 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 38  BASIS PTS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; -.013

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.1327 DOWN  .0083 BASIS PTS  OR 83 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3592 DOWN .0055 or DOWN 55 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 114.62 UP .047

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.25511 down .0004 (cdn dollar up 4 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 85.91

Brent: 87.92

USA 10 yr bond yield: 1.869 UP 8 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.185 UP 6  pts.

USA dollar vs Turkish lira: 13,53

usa dollar vs Russian rouble: 76.98 up 47 basis pts.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 543.34 PTS OR 1.51%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 400.84 OR 2.57%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 22.93 UP 3.74 PTS

GLD/NYSE CLOSING PRICE $169.39 DOWN $0.17 OR 0.10%

SLV/NYSE CLOSING PRICE: $21.72//UP $.49 OR 2.31%

USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM

Bonds, Stocks, & Bitcoin Battered As “Rage-Hike” Fears Grow

TUESDAY, JAN 18, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Today saw both bonds and stocks battered, creating the biggest daily aggregate loss (10Y TSY Px plus S&P 500) since March 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

In fact, a combined equity/bond portfolio has lost money on 13 of the last 15 days.

10Y Treasuries are having their worst start to a year in at least 30 years…

Source: Bloomberg

And stocks are having their worst start to a year since 2016 (and 3rd worst in at least 30 years).

“It sure is a hell of a lot easier to just be first… sell it all today…”

Breadth continues to stink…

Source: Bloomberg

With the average stock is now trading 38% off their 52-week highs.

Today was ugly for stonks with Small Caps (down over 3%) and Nasdaq underperforming (down 2.5%). The S&P was also ugly and The Dow was weighed down by GS (-171pts), MSFT (-46pts) and JPM (-42pts)…

NOTE that futures got hit at the Asia open, the EU open and the US open… and the US close.

Nasdaq went back into correction today- its biggest drawdown since March 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Significant technical levels came into play today with the S&P bouncing off its 100DMA (then falling back to it), Dow bouncing off its 100DMA (then falling back below it), but Nasdaq unable to get back above its 100DMA…

Goldman was monkeyhammered after earnings is now down 8.5% YTD (while Wells Fargo remains up 18% YTD)…

Source: Bloomberg

Yields surged again today with the belly underperforming (5Y-10Y +8-9bps, 2Y & 30Y +6bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields are back at pre-COVID-lockdown levels (as are 5Y yields) and 30Y is back at its highest since June 2021 (topping the Oct 2021 levels)…

Source: Bloomberg

At the very short-end, the market is now pricing in more than 4 rate-hikes by year-end…

Source: Bloomberg

…and is starting to price in a so-called “rage-hike” of 50bps for March…

Source: Bloomberg

Echoing Nomura’s thoughts, Deutsche Bank economists argued in a note to clients today that The Fed could raise interest rates faster than expected to get ahead of inflation and even potentially hike by 50 bps at some stage.

“The most likely scenario is that the Fed begins to raise rates at each meeting this year beginning at the March meeting,” write authors Peter Hooper, global head of economic research, and Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist.

“In addition, the Fed could decide to announce an earlier rundown of its bill portfolio, possibly beginning as early as the March meeting, and begin QT in the second quarter.”

Before we leave bond-land, we note that 30Y Real Yields are getting very close to turning positive once again…

Source: Bloomberg

This leave bonds at their cheapest to stocks since May 2019…TINA is dead

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar extended its recent ramp, but once it got back to unchanged on the year, the trend reversed…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was weaker from Friday’s close with Bitcoin slipping back below $41500 as the ‘death cross’ is triggered (which marked the lows the last time it was hit)…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices rallied today, with WTI chopping around before jumping back above $85, taking out October’s highs, back to its highest since October 2014…

Gold ended marginally lower (from Friday’s close) on a choppy day…

Finally, in case you were wondering, the market is not just worried about a “rage-hike” liftoff and the trajectory of The Fed, but is now starting to price in the possibility of a rate-cut between 2024 and 2025

Source: Bloomberg

Not exactly what ‘recovery’ is supposed to look like.

END

I)MORNING TRADING/AFTERNOON TRADING

II)USA DATA

Not good!

Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey Collapses Into Contraction In January

TUESDAY, JAN 18, 2022 – 08:40 AM

Against expectations of a +25 print, US Empire State Manufacturing Survey collapsed in January into contraction at -0.7. This is the 3rd biggest MoM drop in history (with only March and April 2020 worse)…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the second biggest miss against Bloomberg consensus in history.

“After eighteen months of positive readings, the general business conditions fell a steep thirty-three points to -0.7,” the New York Fed said

An index of new orders dropped 32.1 points in January to -5, while the shipments gauge slumped 26.1 points to +1.

The average workweek and employment also showed a slower rate of expansion.

The price outlook also firmed, with indexes of future prices paid and received climbing the highest in data back to 2001.

Omicron strikes… just as The Fed is about to embark on its most aggressive tightening plan in years.

END

III) USA COVID UPDATES.

GE abandons Biden’s vax mandate

(zerohedge)

General Electric Abandons Biden’s Vax Mandate After SCOTUS Ruling While Nike Doubles Down

FRIDAY, JAN 14, 2022 – 10:00 PM

Now that the Supreme Court has blocked President Biden’s push to mandate vaccinations for all workers at companies with more than 100 workers, companies are finally backing away from the government’s edict. To wit, General Electric has just announced that it has abandoned its vaccine require  

According to Bloomberg, the maker of jet engines, wind turbines and medical scanners confirmed the decision Friday via email. GE is the first major company to announce a halt after SCOTUS’s decision Thursday to block the centerpiece of President Joe Biden’s push to boost COVID vaccinations.

Vaccine rules have taken on greater significance as the surging omicron variant has disrupted companies’ plans to order workers to return to the office.

Without the federal mandate, which would have applied to employers with 100 or more workers, the choice is now up to individual workers.

Of course, not every company is backing away from the rule now that SCOTUS has shot it down: Nike, for example, is charging full-steam ahead.

To wit, Nike sent a defiant letter to its remaining unvaccinated employees warning that they will be fired by Jan. 15 if they fail get vaccinated against COVID. Republicans attacked Nike’s mandate, but the company held its ground.

Unfortunately for Nike’s remaining unvaccinated employees, social media accounts belonging to Democratic “grass roots” organizations are cheering Nike on.

A separate rule that would apply to federal contractors remains in limbo after it was blocked by a federal judge last month, but if it’s blocked, we suspect companies to which it would apply will react in a similar fashion. After all, what company wants to take on additional responsibilities?

end

Interesting: states are investigating a surge in mortality rates among 18 to 49 with the majority unreleated to COVID 19

(Svab/EpochTimes)

States Investigating Surge In Mortality Rate Among 18–49-Year-Olds, Majority Unrelated To COVID-19

 SUNDAY, JAN 16, 2022 – 04:30 PM

Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Health departments in several states confirmed to The Epoch Times that they are looking into a steep surge in the mortality rate for people aged 18 to 49 in 2021—a majority of which are not linked to COVID-19.

Deaths among people aged 18 to 49 increased more than 40 percent in the 12 months ending October 2021 compared to the same period in 2018–2019, before the pandemic, according to an analysis by The Epoch Times of death certificate data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The agency doesn’t yet have full 2021 figures, as death certificate data has a lag of up to eight weeks or more.A nurse tends to a non-covid patient on a ventilator at Beaumont Hospital in Dearborn, Michigan, on Dec. 17, 2021. (Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images)

The surge differed greatly from state to state, with the most dramatic increase in young-to-middle age deaths in the South, Midwest, and the West Coast, while the northeastern states generally saw much milder spikes. Public health authorities in several states with some of the largest increases are examining the issue.

Texas saw the 18 to 49 age mortality jump 61 percent, the second-highest increase in the country. Of that, less than 58 percent was attributed to COVID-19.

“Our Center of Health Statistics is looking at the data,” said Chris Van Deusen, the head of Media Relations at the Texas Department of State Health Services, via email. “We’ll get back with you.”

Florida, which saw an increase of 51 percent, 48 percent of that attributed to COVID-19, is also probing the matter.A medical worker treats a non-COVID-19 patient in the ICU ward at UMass Memorial Medical Center in Worcester, Massachusetts on Jan. 4, 2022. (Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images)

I am looking into it to see if there is some sort of correlation/causation,” said Jeremy Redfern, spokesman for the Florida Department of Health via email.

Nevada saw the highest increase, 65 percent, of which just 36 percent was attributed to COVID-19.

Shannon Litz, a public information officer at the Nevada Department of Health and Human Services, said via email she passed on questions regarding the mortality spike to the agency’s Office of Analytics “for review.”

The District of Columbia experienced an increase of 72 percent, none of it attributed to COVID-19.

Robert Mayfield, spokesman for D.C.’s health authority, referred The Epoch Times to the district’s Office of Chief Medical Examiner (OCME), which suggested it lacked the expertise to analyze the phenomenon.

“OCME does not currently have an epidemiologist (the position is being advertised) so it has no present ability to analyze the data,” said the office’s spokesman Rodney Adams via email.

Arizona recorded a 57 percent increase, 37 percent of which was attributed to COVID-19.

Arizona’s Department of Health Services couldn’t respond to questions regarding the issue because its data is “not yet finalized,” said Tom Herrmann, the agency’s public information officer, via email.Fire Department paramedics prepare to transport a man to a hospital in Houston, Texas, on Sept. 15, 2021 in Houston. (John Moore/Getty Images)

Other states with some of the highest increases were Tennessee (57 percent up, 33 percent attributed to COVID-19), California (55 percent up, 42 percent attributed to COVID-19), New Mexico (52 percent up, 33 percent attributed to COVID-19), and Louisiana (51 percent up, 32 percent attributed to COVID-19). None of their health authorities responded to requests for comment.

The mortality surge seemed to be significantly milder in the northeast. New Hampshire saw no increase, Massachusetts had only a 13 percent spike (24 percent of it attributed to COVID-19), and New York, one of the worst-hit by the pandemic in the region, was up 29 percent (30 percent of it attributed to COVID-19).

CDC data on the causes of those excess deaths aren’t yet available for 2021, aside from those involving COVID-19, pneumonia, and influenza. There were close to 6,000 excess pneumonia deaths that didn’t involve COVID-19 in the 18 to 49 age group in the 12 months ending October 2021. Influenza was only involved in 50 deaths in this age group, down from 550 in the same period pre-pandemic. The flu death count didn’t exclude those that also involved COVID-19 or pneumonia, the CDC noted.Houston Fire Department paramedics transport a man suffering from breathing difficulties to a hospital on in Houston, Texas, on Sept. 14, 2021. (John Moore/Getty Images)

A part of the surge could be likely blamed on drug overdoses, which increased to more than 101,000 in the 12 months ending June 2021 from about 72,000 in 2019, the CDC estimated. About two-thirds of those deaths involved synthetic opioids such as fentanyl that are often smuggled to the United States from China via Mexico.

For those aged 50 to 84, mortality increased more than 27 percent, representing more than 470,000 excess deaths. Some 77 percent of the deaths had COVID-19 marked on the death certificate as the cause or a contributing factor.

For those 85 or older, mortality increased about 12 percent with more than 100,000 excess deaths. There were more than 130,000 COVID-related deaths in this group, indicating these seniors were less likely to die of a non-COVID-related cause from November 2020 to October 2021 than during the same period of 2018–2019.

Comparing 2020 to 2019, mortality increased some 24 percent for those aged 18 to 49, with less than a third of those excess deaths involving COVID-19. For those aged 50 to 84, mortality increased less than 20 percent, with over 70 percent of that involving COVID-19. For those even older, mortality jumped about 16 percent, with nearly 90 percent of it involving COVID-19.

For those under 18, mortality decreased about 0.4 percent in 2020 compared to 2019. In the 12 months ending October 2021, it fell some 3.3 percent compared to the same period in 2018–2019.

end

iii) important USA economic stories for you tonight

A very important read

The Fed has triggered a stagflationary disaster

(Brandon Smith/)

The Fed Has Triggered A Stagflationary Disaster That Will Hit Hard This Year

 FRIDAY, JAN 14, 2022 – 05:40 PM

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

I don’t think I can overstate the danger that the U.S. economy is in right now as we enter 2022. While most people are caught up in the ongoing drama of Covid-19, a REAL threat looms over the nation in the form of a stagflationary tidal wave. The mainstream media is attempting to place the blame on “supply chain disruptions,” but this is a misrepresentation of the issue.

The two factors are indeed intertwined, but the reality is that inflation is the cause of supply chain disruptions, not the result of supply chain disruptions. If we look at the underlying stats for price rises in essential products we can get a clearer picture.

Before I get into my argument, I really want to stress that this is a precarious time and I suggest that people prepare accordingly. In just the past few months I have seen personal expenses rise at least 20% overall, and I’m sure it’s the same or worse for most of you. Stocking necessities and safe-haven investments with intrinsic value like physical precious metals are a good choice for protecting whatever buying power your dollars have left…

Higher prices everywhere

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is officially at the highest levels in 40 years. CPI measurements often diminish the scale of the problem because they do not include things like food, energy and housing which are core expenses for the public. CPI calculations have also been “adjusted” over the past few decades by the government to express a more positive view on inflation. If we look at the inflation numbers at Shadowstats, calculated according to the same methods they used in the 1980’s, we see a dramatic increase in CPI which paints a more dire (but more accurate) picture.

U.S. food prices have spiked to levels not seen since 2008 at the onset of the credit and derivatives collapse that brought about tens of trillions of dollars in Federal Reserve bailouts.

If we look beyond the 2008 crisis, food costs do not see a similar jump until the 1980s. Rising food prices in the US are often obscured by creative accounting and “shrinkflation” (shrinking packages and rising prices), but if we look at global food prices the average is a 30% jump in the past year.

Rental and home prices have also gone into the stratosphere. Rental costs went up around 18% in 2021, and this is an extension of a trend that has been prevalent for the past decade. Prices have been rising for a while, it’s just that now the avalanche has accelerated.

Home prices are currently out of the range of most new potential home buyers. Values jumped 16% in the past year alone, with the average property costing $408,000. Home sales continue to remain elevated compared to two years ago despite inflating prices for one reason and one reason only – the mass migration of Americans away from the draconian mandates and bureaucracy of blue states into more conservative states.

I live in Montana, a primary destination for people relocating, and from my experience the majority of these people are conservatives seeking to escape the vaccine and lockdown mandates in places like California, New York and Illinois. They see the writing on the wall and they are trying to get ahead of the economic and social calamity that will surely befall such states.

I would also note that home sales have finally begun to flatten in the past six months but prices are not dropping, which is a trend that I think needs to be explored further because it illustrates the larger issue of stagflation.

When inflation becomes stagflation

Understand that prices are not just rising because of increased demand (demand is starting to fall in many sectors), prices are rising because of increased money supply and dollar devaluation which is not yet being reflected in the Dollar Index.

Take a look at U.S. GDP and you will see that for the past several years it has tracked in tandem with price inflation. Obviously, if prices inflate then this means people are spending more, which then leads to higher U.S. GDP; it’s like magic, right? In other words, inflation makes it seem as though U.S. GDP is always improving.

However, this has not been the case in the past couple of years.

Official GDP has flattened despite the fact that U.S. money supply and inflation have rocketed higher. What does this mean? I believe it is a sign of stagflation and a reckoning in 2022. If we examine inflation adjusted GDP numbers from Shadowstats we see that GDP has declined rather aggressively in the past couple of years.

We can also see odd tendencies in oil and gasoline prices. While it’s true that gas prices have been higher in the past, this does not address the full context of the situation. U.S. travel spending has declined 12% since 2019 and airline travel has dropped at least 21% in the past year. Average gasoline usage dropped after 2019 and still has not recovered. Yet, gas prices continue to rise? In other words, travel demand is stagnant but prices are INCREASING – this is another signal of inflationary pressures and dollar devaluation. Oil is priced in dollars globally, and therefore any inflation in the dollar will be readily visible in oil. This would help explain why pandemic paranoia and reduced travel have not caused gas prices to drop.

If the current momentum continues the majority of necessities in the U.S. will not be affordable for most people by next year. We are looking at a fast-moving decline in production along with a swift explosion in prices. In other words, a stagflationary disaster.

This is the Federal Reserve’s fault

I and many other alternative economists have been warning about the inevitable inflation/stagflation crisis for years, but the most important factor to understand is WHO is responsible this event?

The mainstream financial media is going to protect the government and the Federal Reserve at all costs during this breakdown. They are going to blame Covid, the lockdowns here and overseas as well as the supply chain bottleneck.

The Fed is the true culprit, though.

While there have been many American Presidents and other politicians that have supported the Fed in its inflationary activities, the central bank itself needs to be held accountable for the downturn that is about to occur. This is a process that started back at the founding of the Fed, but spread like cancer after the crash of 2008 and the introduction of 12+ years of stimulus and bailout measures along with near-zero interest rates.

The inflationary end-game

The pandemic is the perfect cover for the inflationary end game. In 2008 the response to the crisis was to print and pump dollars into banks and corporations in the U.S. and around the globe. This money supply was held in corporate coffers and in central banks overseas, which slowed the effects of inflation. This set the precedent for subversive stimulus policies by giving the Fed a blank check to do whatever it wanted.

In 2020, the Fed created trillions more but this time the money was injected directly into the U.S. economy through Covid stimulus checks, PPP loans and other measures. In the alternative economic field we call this “helicopter money.” These dollars triggered a massive retail buying spree in 2020, but with more dollars in the economy chasing less goods prices are now spiking much higher.

The big discussion today is whether or not the Fed will taper their asset purchases, reduce their balance sheet and raise interest rates to counter inflation?

The fact is it won’t matter; inflation/stagflation will continue or even accelerate as the Fed tapers. With a taper comes the threat of a flattening yield curve in Treasury bonds as well as the danger of bonds and dollars being dumped by foreign investors and central banks. If the trillions upon trillions of dollars being held overseas come flooding back into the U.S., inflation will continue at its current pace or erupt even higher. In fact, the world’s ownership of dollars reached a 26-year low recently. The global transition away from the dollar, toward inflation-resistant investments, has already begun.

This is not a policy error

I explained this Catch-22 threat in my recent article The Fed’s Catch-22 Taper Is a Weapon, Not a Policy Error. In that essay I outline the Fed’s documented history of creating economic disasters that conveniently end up benefiting their friends in the international banks.

I also explained (with evidence) how the Federal Reserve actually takes its marching orders from the Bank for International Settlements, a globalist institution which along with the International Monetary Fund and World Economic Forum is openly seeking a one-world economic system and one-world currency system.

I do not believe that the Fed’s actions are a product of ignorance or stupidity or basic greed. I do not believe the Fed is scrambling to keep the U.S. economy afloat. I believe according to the evidence that the Fed knows exactly what it is doing. The pandemic offers a perfect scapegoat for an engineered crash of the U.S. economy which the Fed is trying to facilitate.

Why? Because the more desperate people are financially, the easier they are to buy off with false promises and a loaf of bread. They are easier to control. On top of that, with the U.S. economy reduced to second- or third-world status, it is easier to sell the public on the predetermined solution – total global centralization and far less freedom.

As the stagflationary crash plays out, never forget who was really the cause of the public’s suffering. In the fog of national crisis it is easy for the establishment to shift blame and responsibility and to cloud the truth. The inflation calamity is about to get much worse, and as it does we need to rally newly awakened people to take action against the central bankers and globalists behind it.

*  *  *

With global tensions spiking, thousands of Americans are moving their IRA or 401(k) into an IRA backed by physical gold. Now, thanks to a little-known IRS Tax Law, you can too. Learn how with a free info kit on gold from Birch Gold Group. It reveals how physical precious metals can protect your savings, and how to open a Gold IRA. Click here to get your free Info Kit on Gold.

end

Michael Snyder…

11 Reasons Why This Was Joe Biden’s Worst Week Ever

FRIDAY, JAN 14, 2022 – 04:20 PM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Joe Biden has had a lot of bad weeks over the last 12 months, but this week has got to take the cake.  In fact, it is hard to remember the last time that any president had a week that was this bad.  But this wasn’t supposed to happen.  Democrats were promising a return to “normalcy” after the Trump years, but instead virtually everything seems to be going wrong.  No matter where you are on the political spectrum, you should be able to admit that Joe Biden’s presidency is not going very well at all.  At this point, even many Democrats are using the word “failure” to describe Biden, and this is fueling rumors that Hillary Clinton may run again in 2024.

Yes, Biden’s presidency has been such a complete and utter disaster that the absolutely unthinkable could actually become a reality.

Just when you think that things can’t get any worse, somehow they do.  The following are 11 reasons why this was Joe Biden’s worst week ever…

#1 The OSHA Mandate

On Thursday, we learned that the U.S. Supreme Court had voted 6 to 3 to strike down Biden’s cherished OSHA vaccine mandate…

President Biden urged businesses to bring in vaccine mandates on their own and pushed states to ‘do the right thing’ after the Supreme Court voted 6-3 to block his sweeping rules on private companies in a crushing blow to his pandemic response.

The high court did however allow a vaccine mandate for employees at health care facilities receiving federal dollars to go into effect.

The OSHA mandate would have covered approximately 80 million American workers, and countless workers all over the country that would have lost their jobs under this mandate are greatly celebrating right now.

#2 The Filibuster

Biden was desperately hoping that all of the Democrats in the U.S. Senate would agree to kill the filibuster so that he could get the “voting rights bill” through Congress, but Senator Kyrsten Sinema just made it exceedingly clear that she is not willing to do that

First, Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a fellow Democrat, announced that although she supports the voting rights bill, she’s not willing to do what it would take to make it happen. The filibuster. I’m talking about killing the filibuster.

This came only two days after the president made such an impassioned speech in support of knocking off the filibuster that Republicans essentially called it offensive. And even one Democratic senator said Biden, who pledged a year ago to unite Americans, went too far in the speech.

When she was elected, I never imagined that the day would come when I would be thankful for Kyrsten Sinema.

But today I am definitely very thankful that she has taken this stand.

#3 Inflation

This week, it was announced that the inflation rate had hit a 40 year high, and Americans are blaming Biden for this.

And as I pointed out in an article that I posted on Wednesday, if inflation was still calculated the way that it was back in 1980, the official rate of inflation in this country would be above 15 percent at this point.

#4 Shortages

In December, Joe Biden told the nation that the supply chain crisis was over.

Of course that was not true, and now store shelves are so empty that “BareShelvesBiden” has been trending on social media throughout this entire week.

#5 Joe Biden’s Approval Rating

At the beginning of his presidency, Biden actually had very strong approval ratings, but now they just continue to sink lower and lower.

As I pointed out yesterday, the seven most recent Quinnipiac polls show a very clear trend

President Biden’s overall approval rating in the last seven Quinnipiac polls: 49%, 46%, 42%, 38%, 37%, 36%, 33%.

[ZH: The dead-cat-bounce in Biden’s approval is over…]

#6 Fauci’s Approval Rating

Dr. Fauci was Biden’s handpicked choice to lead the U.S. out of this pandemic, but he has been steadily losing the trust of the American people.

According to a NewsNation poll that was just conducted, only 31 percent of all Americans still believe what he is telling us about the pandemic.

#7 Omicron

During the presidential campaign, Joe Biden repeatedly promised that he would “shut down the virus”, but in recent days the number of COVID cases has soared to all-time record highs in the United States.  At this point things are so bad that even Biden administration officials are admitting that essential services are in danger of totally breaking down

Acting Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Janet Woodcock gave U.S. lawmakers an ominous warning this week: The nation needs to ensure police, hospital and transportation services don’t break down as the unprecedented wave of omicron infections across the country forces people to call out sick.

“It’s hard to process what’s actually happening right now, which is most people are going to get Covid,” Woodcock testified before the Senate health committee on Tuesday. “What we need to do is make sure the hospitals can still function, transportation, other essential services are not disrupted while this happens.”

#8 The Lack Of COVID Tests

Even CNN and MSNBC have been roasting Biden this week for not having enough COVID tests for the American people.

Now the Biden administration is telling us that millions of new tests are on the way, but by the time they arrive the Omicron wave may be over.

#9 Russia

Foreign policy takes a great deal of finesse, and that is something that Biden’s team is sorely lacking.

When I first started warning that Biden was surrounded by the worst foreign policy team in U.S. history, a lot of people thought that I was exaggerating.

But now the truth is becoming very clear, and a potential war with Russia that nobody wants is closer than ever

Talks to find a diplomatic solution to the worsening situation between Russia and Ukraine are on the brink of collapse after Thursday’s meeting as a key US ambassador warned ‘the drumbeat of war is sounding loud.’

Secretary of State Antony Blinken hit the airwaves on Thursday morning where he also weighed in on the crisis, claiming the ‘jury is still out’ on whether Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggressive military buildup on Ukraine’s border will end with an invasion.

#10 Kamala Harris

Is even Kamala Harris turning against Biden?

This week, a reporter asked Harris if the Democrats would have the same presidential ticket in 2024.

Normally, that would be a really easy question for any vice-president to answer.

But instead of answering “of course”, this is how Harris responded

REPORTER: “Are we going to see the same Democrat ticket in 2024?”

HARRIS: “[long pause] I’m sorry but we are thinking about today”

Wow.

I think that this is another very clear sign that there is far more going on behind the scenes than we are being told.

#11 Hillary Clinton

Biden is such a failure that some Democrats are already suggesting that Hillary Clinton should be the Democratic nominee in 2024.

Seriously.

On Wednesday, a pro-Hillary piece authored by two key Democratic operatives named Douglas E. Schoen and Andrew Stein appeared in the Wall Street Journal.  In their article, they listed a number of different reasons why they believe that Hillary would be a good choice for the next election cycle…

‘Several circumstances – President Biden’s low approval rating, doubts over his capacity to run for re-election at 82, Vice President Harris’s unpopularity, and the absence of another strong Democrat to lead the ticket in 2024 – have created a leadership vacuum in the party, which Mrs. Clinton viably could fill,’ they write.

So could we actually see a rematch between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump?

Of course we still have three more years of the Biden/Harris administration to get through first, and that won’t be pleasant.

Decades of very foolish decisions set the stage for where we are today, and now Biden and his minions have us steamrolling down a highway that doesn’t lead anywhere good.

By the time we get to 2024, this country could be completely unrecognizable.

Biden’s first year has been absolutely terrible, and the next three years are likely to be even worse.

But there is no “exit button” on this ride, and so we are all going to have to endure whatever is coming next.

*  *  *

It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

end

iii)b USA inflation commentaries//LOG JAMS//

iv)swamp stories

(end)

KING REPORT/SWAMP STORIES

The King Report January 18, 2022 Issue 6679Independent View of the News
 US Retail Sales unexpectedly tumbled 1.9% m/m in December.  -0.1% was expected.  This is the largest decline in 10 months.  Retail Sales Ex-Autos plunged 2.3%; +0.1% was expected.  Retail Sales Ex-Autos & Gas dropped 2.5%; -0.2% was expected.
 
November Retail Sales were revised to 0.2% from 0.3%; Ex-Autos was revised to 0.1% from 0.3%; Sales Ex-Autos & Gas was revised to -0.1% from 0.2%.  Once again under Biden economic data is revised downward, which means initial reports are overstated – and few people notice or heed the revisions.
 
Pundits blame Omicron; but that explanation is misleading.  It was fear of Omicron and its resultant shortages in the fall that induced consumers to do their Christmas buying early.  More astute analysts note that inflation is a key reason for the horrid December retail sales.
 
U.S. Retail Sales Slide Most in 10 Months on Inflation, Omicron
Ten of the 13 retail categories showed declines in receipts last month, led by non-store retailers, which includes e-commerce. Those sales plummeted 8.7% from a month earlier.  Department-store receipts decreased 7% after a 5.5% drop in November. Sales at furniture stores, electronics outlets and sporting goods establishments also fell. Receipts at restaurants and bars, the report’s only services-oriented category and a sign of omicron’s early impact, dropped 0.8% after rising the prior month.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-14/u-s-retail-sales-slide-sharply-as-inflation-weighs-on-consumers
 
Netflix raises prices in U.S. and Canada; stock jumps https://cnb.cx/3qtcOm7
 
Price hikes yield immediate benefits; but can later impair unit sales.  During inflation, it’s a contest between increasing revenue per unit versus decreasing unit sales.
 
JPMorgan Falls on Trading Revenue Slump, Mutes Loan GrowthFixed-income trading revenue slides a bigger-than-expected 16%Bank reports a 1% drop in both commercial and consumer loansShares of the company dropped after the firm reported a 16% slide in fixed-income trading revenue, worse than the 13.5% decline analysts had been expecting. Expenses rose 11% from a year earlier as compensation costs increased, and the firm said to expect costs to rise to about $77 billion this year…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-14/jpmorgan-falls-on-trading-revenue-slumps-muted-loan-growth
 
JP Morgan Shares Tumble (as much as 6.3%) as Dimon Warns on Banker Pay – BBG
 
JPMorgan beats profit estimates as dealmaking boom softens trading decline
Loan growth, the bank’s core business, was also up 6%, helped by a rebounding economy, while net interest income from lending and investments in Treasury securities was up 3%. JPMorgan’s shares slipped nearly 5% in trading before the opening bell on Friday as investors worried about higher expenses. During the quarter, non-interest expense jumped 11% to nearly $18 billion, driven largely by higher staff compensation… https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/jpmorgan-profit-falls-trading-slowdown-2022-01-14/
 
Top banking analyst Mike Mayo downgrades JPMorgan shares during trading day https://t.co/0pTSEMfV8q
 
JPM CEO Jamie Dimon said there could be 6 or 7 Fed rate hikes this year.
 
Citigroup profit drops on higher expenses, consumer banking weakness
Citigroup reported a 26% slump in fourth-quarter profit on Friday as it took a hit from higher expenses and weakness at its consumer banking unit… (Citi declined as much as 4%) http://reut.rs/3zYfI5m
 
Wells Fargo rallied as much as 3% on great results: Revenue $20.86B, $18.85B expected; EPS 1.38, 1.02 consensus.  However, Net charge-offs declined 28% y/y to $423m.
 
Apple is considering pushing back the debut of its hotly anticipated headset—its first major new product since the Apple Watch in 2015 https://t.co/qmUCF1Ukl4
 
Omicron Is Threatening the Survival of U.S. Restaurants
Sales decreased at 98% of restaurants across the country in December, according to a poll of 1,169 restaurants conducted by the Independent Restaurant Coalition. Sales dropped by at least half at 58% of those surveyed, while 80% of restaurant owners said omicron impacted their operating hours…
    Nearly half of restaurants also said that the cost and availability of Covid tests impacted their ability to do business… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-14/us-restaurants-see-sales-drop-during-omicron-bankruptcy-threat-rises
Massive cyberattack hits Ukrainian government websites as West warns on Russia conflict 4:17 ET
https://www.reuters.com/technology/massive-cyberattack-hits-ukrainian-government-websites-amid-russia-tensions-2022-01-14/
 
Ex-Navy Intel @JackPosobiec: The Biden Administration has negative political capital. They are desperate. And desperate people do desperate things. Internally they are discussing military options in Eastern Europe. Wag the Dog begins. (8:20 AM ET) The Biden Admin is now like a cornered animal. The regime is lashing out in every direction. Be on guard. (8:29 ET)  I would not put anything past them at this point. They have 10 months left. And they know it (8:30 ET) The CIA wants you to be very sure that whatever happens next in Ukraine it was Russia that did it. Russia. And definitely Russia!… Daily reminder that the Bidens got 50,000 reasons a month to care about Ukraine… They seriously want us to get into a war with Russia while Joe Biden is at the helm. This is how bad things are inside the White House… This morning I warned you the admin was getting desperate and discussing military options in Ukraine to distract from their domestic failures: This afternoon:
 
US intelligence says Russia has prepared a false-flag operation to invade Ukraine 11:43 ET
“We do have information that indicates that Russia is already working actively to create a pretext for a potential invasion, for a move on Ukraine,” Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby told reporters on Friday… https://thehill.com/policy/defense/589754-us-intelligence-says-russia-has-prepared-a-false-flag-operation-to-invade
 
What the West gets wrong about Putin
When we first met, he already knew the power of terrifying adversaries
I had first met Putin seven years before and was not surprised by his rapid domination of the new Russia. We were introduced by Yevgeny Primakov, widely known as “Russia’s Kissinger”, who I had met in Moscow multiple times during the Cold War years when I advised Presidents Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon and Ford. Primakov was a no-nonsense thinker and writer. He was also a special emissary for the Kremlin in conducting secret discussions with national leaders around the world.
    When Yeltsin tasked his advisor Anatoly Sobchak with identifying and recruiting Russia’s best and brightest, Putin, then a local politician in his hometown of St Petersburg, was top of his list — so Primakov took Putin under his wing to tutor him in global power and security issues. Eventually, Primakov introduced Kissinger to Putin, and they became close. That both Primakov and Kissinger took time to coach Putin on geopolitics and geosecurity was a clear demonstration that they saw in him the characteristics of a powerful leader…  https://unherd.com/2022/01/what-the-west-gets-wrong-about-putin/
  @WallStreetSilv: Worst inflation in 74 years using pre 1980 methodology. US 15.15% inflation, the highest since June 1947https://t.co/W0O2sxfCRE
 
Bloomberg (@business): The tech stock-rout has only pushed the Nasdaq down about 8% from its November high. Yet beneath the surface more than a third of the stocks in the index are down at least 50%.  https://t.co/isOUtDBRfg
 
@RNCResearch: Biden, today: “I ran for president to unite the country.” Biden, Tuesday: If you disagree with me, you’re a racisthttps://t.co/snLEYWhrxS
 
GOPe darling Peggy Noonan in WSJ op-ed: Biden’s Georgia Speech Is a Break Point
He thought he was merely appealing to his base. He might have united the rest of the country against him… The speech itself was aggressive, intemperate, not only offensive but meant to offend. It seemed prepared by people who think there is only the Democratic Party in America, that’s it, everyone else is an outsider who can be disparaged. It was a mistake on so many levels…
    The over-the-top language of the speech made him seem more emotional, less competent… By the end he looked like a man operating apart from the American conversation, not at its center. This can be fatal to a presidency… From the floor of the Senate the next day came Mr. McConnell’s rebuke. It was stinging, indignant to the point of seething…
    What Mr. Biden was really doing was attempting to “delegitimize the next election in case they lose it.” Now, he said…  https://t.co/ynK84v0Q4F
 
Biden’s a dud man walking – According to the election calendar, Joe Biden has three years remaining in his term. According to political reality, his presidency is over, kaput, finished.  It ended last week because of an accumulation of serious wounds, most of them self-inflicted.
    The final blow came from a boomerang after the president who campaigned as a decent man and uniter declared his opponents traitors and racists… The idiotic language he used aside, the effort highlights how Biden’s decision to side with the party’s most radical elements has left him cravenly dependent on their support at the expense of abandoning all moderate voters — the people he pledged to represent… https://t.co/jSLdTiS66m
 
Things are so bad for Biden that his handlers scheduled his first formal press conference since March.
 
@business: President Biden will hold a news conference on Wednesday to mark the end of his first year in office, facing reporters as his agenda has stalled and Covid cases are spiking https://t.co/nkXVm45cQL
 
U.S. Political Party Preferences Shifted Greatly During 2021 – from a nine-percentage-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter to a rare five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter https://twitter.com/itsSpencerBrown/status/1483052065719005184
There is a financial incentive for the US healthcare industry to diagnose Covid for patients: @covid_clarity: Section 3710 of the CARES ACT provides a 20% “add-on payment” for patients discharged from the hospital with a COVID-19 diagnosis. See below.  Full CARES Act linkhttps://congress.gov/116/bills/hr74
 
Doctors Call for Rethinking COVID Strategy
The Arizona State Chapter of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) issued a statement that “as the COVID-19 pandemic drags on into 2022, we should not keep doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result. If a general is losing the war, he is replaced.”…
    Another factor is poor morale, possibly due to moral injury, if staff are not permitted to do what they believe is best for patients. “Shared decision-making,” recently promoted by academics as a model for clinical practice, evidently does not apply to respecting patient preferences in COVID-19 treatment, AAPS writes…Hospitals “may assert that ‘there’s no [CDC-accepted] evidence that that works,’ while there is clear evidence that what they are doing does NOT work in a particular real patient.”…
    Mask mandates have not stopped the spread, so now N95 masks are advocated. AAPS points to warnings of potential harm that were previously stamped on such masks, and the necessity of careful fitting. Vaccines have not lived up to the promises, AAPS states…
https://aapsonline.org/doctors-call-for-rethinking-covid-strategy/
 
Babylon Bee: Pfizer Promises Omicron Vaccine Will Be Ready in Time for… Q1 Earnings Report
 
Babylon Bee: Stores Refusing to Sell Chicken Noodle Soup after Rumor COVID Patients Are Using It to Feel Better https://t.co/9COcR1VLqa
 
@YALiberty: SHOCKING: Canadian health officials forced to admit that they secretly accessed the cellphone location data of 87% of Canadians to monitor their movement during the pandemic. No consent.   https://twitter.com/YALiberty/status/1482072526649966592
 
MI5 warning over ‘Chinese agent’ in Parliament
An alert from the security service said Christine Ching Kui Lee “established links” for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) with current and aspiring MPs… https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59984380
 
Yachts To Be Exempt from EU’s Carbon Pricing Plan
If there is anyone still confused why ESG, and the entire “green” movement is one giant, boiling cauldron of lies, hypocrisy and fraud, read on… this is just so Europe’s aged oligarchs can invite their 20-year-old Russian mistresses on board their yachts on anchor next to Monte Carlo…
   And since the core tenet of the entire Green/ESG farce is to make two sets of rules: one for the 0.001% and another for everyone else, peasants will be told to accept it…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yachts-be-exempt-eus-carbon-pricing-plan
 
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand strolls maskless through upstate restaurant https://trib.al/gNl9erd
 
(Dem Sen.) Ted Lieu Can’t Fly to DC Due to ‘Ongoing Health Emergency’ But Just Vacationed in Bermuda and Hawaii, Attended NFL Game (maskless…)  https://redstate.com/jenvanlaar/2022/01/14/ted-lieu-cant-fly-to-dc-due-to-ongoing-health-emergency-but-just-vacationed-in-bermuda-and-hawaii-attended-nfl-game-n506897
 
NYT: For the first time, the CDC said cloth masks weren’t as effective as other options. “Wear the most protective mask you can,” the agency urged. (‘The science’ has changed again, midterms beckon)
 
Salt Lake City Tribune editorial calls for National Guard to keep unvaccinated people in their home – Republican Gov. Spencer Cox would implement a COVID-19 vaccine mandate for the state and have the National Guard enforce the mandate by not letting unvaccinated people go “anywhere.“…
https://www.foxnews.com/media/salt-lake-city-tribune-op-ed-calls-national-guard-keep-unvaccinated-people-locked-down
 
Democratic Voters Support Harsh Measures Against Unvaccinated
Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Democratic voters would favor a government policy requiring that citizens remain confined to their homes at all times, except for emergencies, if they refuse to get a COVID-19 vaccine… Nearly half (48%) of Democratic voters think federal and state governments should be able to fine or imprison individuals who publicly question the efficacy of the existing COVID-19 vaccines on social media, television, radio, or in online or digital publications… Forty-five percent (45%) of Democrats would favor governments requiring citizens to temporarily live in designated facilities or locations if they refuse to get a COVID-19 vaccine…
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/partner_surveys/jan_2022/covid_19_democratic_voters_support_harsh_measures_against_unvaccinated
 
China is still the ultimate prize that Western banks can’t resist
China is the world’s second biggest market for stocks and bonds… BlackRock — the world’s largest asset manager — in June became the first global firm to gain approval for a wholly owned Chinese mutual fund business. Two months later, BlackRock launched its first mutual fund in the country, and quickly raised $1 billion from more than 111,000 investors.  Then, in August, JP Morgan became the first US bank to gain full ownership of its securities unit. CEO Jamie Dimon said back then that China represents “one of the largest opportunities in the world” for the firm…
    Western companies are also facing pressures at home. Billionaire investor George Soros called BlackRock’s China investment a “tragic mistake” that could lose money for its clients and imperil US national securitySome American politicians also called on Wall Street to stop “enabling Communist China” and take a tougher stance against Beijing (US big banks facilitated Hitler, Lenin & Stalin.)
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/14/investing/china-western-banks-mic-intl-hnk/index.html
 
Walgreens, CVS Shut Some Pharmacies on Weekends as Omicron Strains Staffing – From Akron, Ohio, to New Gloucester, Maine, drugstore chains are temporarily closing understaffed locations
https://www.wsj.com/articles/walgreens-cvs-shut-some-pharmacies-on-weekends-as-omicron-strains-staffing-11642156381
 
Union Pacific Official Blames L.A.’s Far-Left Policies for Massive Train Thefts, Considers Leaving L.A.  https://www.dailywire.com/news/union-pacific-official-blames-l-a-s-far-left-policies-for-massive-train-thefts-considers-leaving-l-a
 
China Cuts Policy Interest Rate for First Time Since April 2020PBOC net injected 200 billion yuan of medium-term loansOvernight funding costs are still close to three-month highThe People’s Bank of China cut the rate on its one-year policy loans by 10 basis points to 2.85%, the first reduction since April 2020. It also cut the rate on the seven-day reverse repurchase rate and net injected 200 billion yuan ($31.5 billion) of medium-term cash into the financial system…
    Monday’s move puts China further apart from global central banks such as the Federal Reserve, which are seeking to normalize monetary policies to contain a surge in inflation…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-17/china-cuts-policy-interest-rate-for-first-time-since-april-2020?sref=ZVajCYcV
 
Markets on Monday
Nikkei +0.74%, Hang Seng -0.68%, CSI 300 +0.86%, Shanghai Comp +0.58%, Shenzhen Comp -1.06%
Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%, FTSE +0.91%, CAC 40 +0.82%, DAX +0.32%, IBEX +0.36%, MIB +0.52%
 
Russia Thins Out Its Embassy in Ukraine, a Possible Clue to Putin’s Next Move
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/17/us/politics/russia-ukraine-kyiv-embassy.html
 
Today – This could be a very volatile week: Ukraine-Russia; Team Biden’s desperation to change the extremely negative narrative on The Big Guy’s presidency; inflation angst; Fed fears; stock market deterioration; increasing economic uncertainty – all exacerbated by pressure from a short expiry week.
 
China’s easing on Monday produced rallies in Asia and Europe.  ESHs opened at their high for the day (4671.25, +16.00) but closed -0.25.  US bonds got slammed for a point.  The dollar and gold rallied modestly.  The US 2-year note yield hit 1.0014%; it accurately forecasts fed funds.  The Fed is over 100bps behind the market.  ESHs are +1.50 at 20:30 ET.  Diligently monitor US notes & bonds!  As always, carefully SPY January options for clues as to how the mammoths are playing the expiry.
 
Expected Economic Data: Jan Empire Mfg 26; Jan NAHB Housing Market Index 84; Expected earnings: BK 1.01, PNC 3.51, GS 11.65, JBHT 1.02
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4681; 100-day MA: 4573; 150-day MA: 4501; 200-day MA: 4418                                                                                          
DJIA 50-day MA: 35,839; 100-day MA: 35,407; 150-day MA: 35,186; 200-day MA 34,922
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4224.56 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4512.32 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4805.79 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4674.25 triggers a buy signal
 
Ann Coulter: ‘Trump Is Done’ – Trump is demanding to know Ron DeSantis’s booster status, and I can now reveal it,” Coulter wrote. “He was a loyal booster when Trump ran in 2016, but then he learned our president was a liar and con man whose grift was permanent. I hope that clears things up.”…
https://www.toddstarnes.com/politics/ann-coulter-trump-is-done/
 
Nancy Pelosi’s son Paul was involved in FIVE companies probed by the feds as shocking paper trail connects him to a slew of fraudsters and convicted criminals – but has never been charged himself, a DailyMail.com investigation reveals…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9827893/Nancy-Pelosis-son-Paul-involved-FIVE-companies-probed-feds.html
 
As Year 1 of the Biden administration comes to a close, an Axios analysis has found President Joe Biden has “by almost every measure bombed big-time on the things that matter most.” https://t.co/Hq1eahMwLs
 
Biden calls on employers to implement coronavirus vaccine mandates despite Supreme Court ruling http://hill.cm/drxbZbX
 
After The Big Guy’s horrible week, he once again headed to Delaware for some R&R or whatever.
 
@Heminator: Let me get this straight. Founder of Oath Keepers and 10 other Oath Keepers are being charged with “sedition.” Ray Epps — a very prominent Oath Keeper! — isn’t being charged with even incitement? J6 committee thanks him and says you’re conspiratorial for asking questions?
 
@julie_kelly2: So a seditious conspirator responsible for a “domestic terror attack” on the Capitol was a free man for a year and suddenly charged just as January 6 narrative is getting torched? Sounds legit.
 
Oath Keeper, retired Navy vet, 70, charged with ‘seditious conspiracy’ for Jan 6 warns, ‘this is good vs evil’ – “Tucker, I did not go into the Capitol and they know it,” Caldwell, 67, asserted. “I’m absolutely outraged. They don’t have any proof, and I’m innocent and we can prove my innocence.”
    “You know, this whole thing has just crushed my wife and I – emotionally and financially,” he commented. “We have all the faith in the world in God. We believe that this is good versus evil. And we are Christians.”… https://t.co/0tWzzONAuJ
 
A retired US Army Green Beret arrested for being at the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, says the #FBI tried to recruit him to spy on the #OathKeepers a few weeks before.  He said FBI agents met with him in late 2020 and asked him to be an informanthttps://t.co/PpPVZm9yTs
 
Turley: The Oath Keepers: What the Indictment Says and Does Not Say About the January 6 Riot
The indictment of eleven individuals associated with the “Oath Keepers” produced an immediate deluge of the postings that an insurrection had finally been established on the January 6th attack at the Capitol. The charges do not establish an insurrection. It does reveal how extremist groups show the protest as an opportunity and hoped that it might trigger greater unrest. However, the indictment does not offer the long-sought proof of an insurrection to fulfill the narrative of many commentators and politicians. While I would not be surprised by additional charges against other co-conspirators and more details could emerge, the indictment does not support the prior allegations of a coordination or collusion with the Trump campaign. Here is a first take on what the indictment says and does not say…
     FBI sources previously told the media that, despite months of intense investigation, they could find “scant evidence” of any “organized plot” and instead found that virtually all of the cases are “one-offs.”… Nevertheless, the Justice Department works hard to reinforce the view of this group as launching a military attack, using their own military jargon…
    These are eleven people who were not armed with guns and some apparently never entered the Capitol.
https://jonathanturley.org/2022/01/14/the-oath-keepers-what-the-indictment-says-and-does-not-say-about-the-january-6-riot/
 
Most Americans believe US democracy ‘at risk of extinction’: poll https://trib.al/HZJBB9k
 
Recent breakthroughs in 2020 election probes undercut narrative that legal avenues are exhausted
Mounting evidence of irregularities and rigged rules has emerged through state and local investigations, court decisions, financial disclosure, and audits in the 14 months since the election.
https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/despite-claims-2020-election-legal-remedies-being-exhausted-audits-cases-find
 
Senate Democrats Immediately Use ‘Racist’ Filibuster After Their Radical Agenda is Defeated https://t.co/uzr3oXnqBR
 
Ex-DJT advisor @StephenM: The White House’s increasingly histrionic demonization of Voter ID, and the massive majority of Americans who support it, demonstrates to what extent they believe their electoral prospects are tied to illegal voting.
 
Schumer misses self-imposed deadline on voting rights package, drawing ire https://t.co/m0ANZ7ef1M
 
@RealKyleMorris: Republicans in the Pennsylvania State Senate plan to draft a bill that would relocate migrants entering the state on Biden administration-sponsored flights to the president’s home state of Delawarehttps://t.co/Ju88LUOHDD
 
@ElectionWiz: (FL Gov) DESANTIS: “Honestly, [justices] Roberts and Kavanaugh didn’t have a backbone on that decision. That’s the bottom line.” (Voted to maintain vax mandate on healthcare workers at federally funded facilities.  DeSantis said he will NOT enforce this mandate in Florida.)
@AP: The FBI says the Texas synagogue hostage taker’s demands were specifically focused on issue not connected to the Jewish community (Not a parody!  It’s Orwellian spin from the Ministry of Truth!)
 
@TPostMillennial: Biden: “I don’t think there is sufficient information to know why he targeted that synagogue why he insisted on the release of someone who’s been in prison for over 10 years… why he was using anti-Semitic & anti-Israeli comments.”  (You cannot make this up!)
 
Jewish leaders call FBI comments on Texas hostages ‘insulting’ https://trib.al/mnvmJXv
 
Newsweek’s @Bryan_E_Leib: Of the last let’s say 50 times I’ve been to a synagogue someone is either carrying or armed security or police are there. Why do I need protection to pray in America… Something is very rotten in our nation.  We are not safe here. Very sad reality.
 
@redsteeze: Parents at school board meetings are instantly labeled domestic terrorists in writing on official DOJ letterhead.  Armed guy takes Jewish hostages at synagogue during religious services demanding the release of an anti-Semitic convicted terrorist is a mystery they can’t solve
 
Texas synagogue hostage-taker Faisal Akram was known to Britain’s MI5 security service
Questions mount over how attacker was able to obtain a visa and travel to US
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/texas-synagogue-hostage-mi5-faisal-akram-b1994841.html
 
@bonchieredstate: It’s impossible to ignore that the FBI obfuscates from a motive anytime a crime is politically inconvenient for the left. The Congressional baseball shooting, the Las Vegas shooting, the Waukesha massacre, the Texas synagogue, the Pulse shooting, etc. It happens every time.
 
@TomFitton: The revolutionary/woke Left hates Israel and is anti-Semitic. It is no wonder that institutions it influences reflect this worldview.
 
After about 30 hours of widespread opprobrium and ridicule, the FBI acknowledged the obvious.
 
Fox’s @ShannonBream tweeted at 11:50 PM on Sun, Jan 16, 2022: Newest FBI statement on Colleyville just in – per Fox’s @JakeBGibson: “This is a terrorism-related matter, in which the Jewish community was targeted, and is being investigated by the Joint Terrorism Task Force.”
 
Father of slain UCLA grad student blames politicians for crime spike
“We have a lot of politicians that somehow forgot about people and think the key to getting elected is to support the lowest rung of our society and to give them rights and somehow that’s the answer to getting votes,” Kupfer said… https://www.foxnews.com/us/father-slain-ucla-grad-student-blames-politicians-crime-spike
 
(Dem Governor) Whitmer admin significantly undercounted Michigan nursing home COVID deaths, state auditor finds https://t.co/MS3zS59BqC
 
Michigan Democratic Party deletes social post claiming parents aren’t ‘client of the public school’
Facebook post ignited a hailstorm of criticism as the debate over parental rights continues to rage across America. https://justthenews.com/nation/states/michigan-democratic-party-deletes-post-claiming-parents-arent-client-public-school
 
The goal of socialism is communism.” — Vladimir Lenin
 
.


 Let us close the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter interviewing Catherine Fitts

a must view…

Headed for a Digital Concentration Camp – Catherine Austin Fitts | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

Headed for a Digital Concentration Camp – Catherine Austin FittsBy Greg Hunter On January 15, 2022 In Political Analysis 140 CommentsBy Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)Catherine Austin Fitts (CAF), Publisher of The Solari Report and former Assistant Secretary of Housing (Bush 41 Admin.), says the central bankers want nothing short of “a complete digital control system.”  CAF explains, “We have what we have been building for the last 20 or 30 years, and it’s getting much more obvious, but it’s been covert most of the time.  They basically want digital control systems through the financial system, through the health system and government systems to implement control.  That control is delivered one person at a time.  You have extraordinary surveillance systems that have been built steadily for decades that are basically tracking everyone. . . . That’s why the ‘vaccine passports’ and ‘central bank digital currencies’ (CBDC) are so dangerous.  It’s important to understand what they are trying to do.  They are trying to create complete transaction control.  If they don’t want you going five miles from your home, your electric car will not work more than five miles from your home. . . . If they don’t want you to buy pizza, your credit card will not allow you to buy pizza.  They are talking about putting in extraordinary digital control systems and literally turning your car and your home into a digital concentration camp.”How do you fight back to this digital tyranny?  CAF explains, “You fight back by saying No.  Do not comply.  What we are seeing around the world is that the places where people refuse to comply, it’s not working.  The mandates are not working, and the passports are not working where people say no.  You are not going to control me.  You are not going to tell me where I can and cannot go.  I am not going along.  You have to massively not comply.”One good way to not comply is to use good old fashion cash for every transaction you can.  CAF says, “You need to hold onto your cash because once the system goes all digital, that’s when you can convert to the digital concentration camps.  If the system stays cash and more and more people use cash, the perfect system is part cash and part digital because cash can’t be controlled. . . . What we are looking for is decentralization, and decentralization comes with cash and it comes with coin.”As far as the CV19 “plandemic,” CAF says, “I don’t think depopulation is the only goal, and that is certainly what has been happening.  The proof that that is happening is when the data started coming in about how bad the deaths and injuries were–they didn’t stop it or change it.  They continued to double down on more and more effort on mandating when they knew the adverse events and deaths are very, very significant.”CAF says there are many ways to fight back, and she talks about those strategies in the interview that is nearly 48 min. long.Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Publisher of The Solari Report, Catherine Austin Fitts. (1.15.22)(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)After the Interview: There is much free information on Solari.com. 

I will see you on WEDNESDAY night/

end

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: