MARCH 14//HUGE RAID CONTINUES AT THE COMEX: GOLD PRICE DOWN $22.75 TO $1958.35//SILVER PRICE DOWN 64 CENTS TO $$25.16//COMEX GOLD HAD A HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 59,400 OZ //NEW STANDING 35.869 TONNES//SILVER ALSO HAD A STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 1,775,000 OZ//NEW STANDING: 52.140 MILLION OZ//NICKEL FIASCO AT THE LME UPDATES// IMPORTANT READ TODAY: TOM LUONGO//MUST WATCH VIDEO: ANDREW MAGUIRE//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE MANDATE UPDATES/VACCINE IMPACT//IVERMECTIN STUDY//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES//CHINA’S ECONOMY IN A FREEFALL//SHORTAGES OF FOODSTUFFS UPDATES/DIESEL FUEL SHORTAGES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT

March 14, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

MARCH14

GOLD;  $1958.25 DOWN $25.15

SILVER: $25.16 DOWN $0.64

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1986.50

SILVER: $25.83

Bitcoin morning price:  $38,945 UP 340 

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $38,694 DOWN 251

Platinum price: closing DOWN $33.55 to $1043.75

Palladium price; closing DOWN $362.95  at $2424.20

END

end

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comex notices/

March: JPMorgan stopped/total issued  363/788

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,982.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/11/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 03/15/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


072 C GOLDMAN 9
104 C MIZUHO 17
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 36
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 88
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 68
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 6
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 74
661 C JP MORGAN 750 363
690 C ABN AMRO 3 15
709 C BARCLAYS 79
737 C ADVANTAGE 24 15
800 C MAREX SPEC 5 10
905 C ADM 14


TOTAL: 788 788
MONTH TO DATE: 10,242



NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  Mar. CONTRACT:788 NOTICE(S) FOR 78800 OZ  (2.4510  TONNES)

total notices so far:  10,242 contracts for 1,024,200 oz (31.857 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

135 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  675,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  10,065  :  for 51,325,000  oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

END

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $22.75

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES INTO THE GLD..

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.54 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.64

AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.125 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//

FROM THE SLV. 

CLOSING INVENTORY: 545.022 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED  834 CONTRACTS TO 163,907  AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL  $0.13 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.13) BUT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS  AS WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 191 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE!!! 

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A HUGE INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 42.860 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1,775,000 OZ //NEW STANDING 52.140 MILLION OZ //         V)    STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : —669

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  MAR. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 10 days, total  contracts: :  24,148 contracts or 120.740 million oz  OR 12.070 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (2415 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 24,148 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 120.74 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 120.74 MILLION OZ//THIS IS GOING TO BE A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE MONTH AND MOST LIKELY WILL SET A RECORD FOR ANY MONTH

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG  SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 834 WITH OUR  $0.13 LOSS SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1025 CONTRACTS( 1025 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR. OF 42.860 MILLION OZ  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1,775,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  ///  .. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 191 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 0.955 MILLION OZ 

 WE HAD 135 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  675,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 14,004 CONTRACTS  TO 633,725 AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: –1736  CONTRACTS. 

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

.

THE HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $14.60//COMEX GOLD TRADING/FRIDAY/.AS IN SILVER WE MUST  HAD  HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MARCH AT 14.818 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 59,400 OZ//NEW STANDING 35.869 TONNES 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF   $14.60 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC RISE OF 23,528  OI CONTRACTS (73.18 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED  9524 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 635,461.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 23,528, WITH 15,770 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 9524 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 23,528 CONTRACTS OR 73.18 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (9524) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (14,004,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 23,528 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MARCH. AT 14.818 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 59,400 OZ//NEW STANDING 35.869 TONNES ///  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ///. ,4)  HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI. GAIN 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THE GOLD COMEX IS ALSO BEING ATTACKED FOR GOLD METAL FROM LONDON ET AL.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

MARCH

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR :

65,988 CONTRACTS OR 6,598,800 OR 205.25  TONNES 10 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 660 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 205.25TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  205.25/3550 x 100% TONNES  5.77% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  205.25 TONNES INITIAL( THIS WILL PROBABLY BE A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 834 CONTRACTS TO 163,907  AND FURTHER FROM  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  4 1/2 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 1025 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 1025  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1025 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 834 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1025 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 191 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 0.955 MILLION  OZ, 

OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.13 LOSS IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING// FRIDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 86.21 PTS OR 2.60%       //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 1022,13 PTS OR 4.97 %  /The Nikkei closed UP 145.07 PTS or 0.58%       //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.13%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.3652    /Oil DOWN TO 103.25 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 108.14 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN        //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3652. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3823: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER/

A)NORTH KOREA/

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 14,004 CONTRACTS  AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS OF $14.60 IN GOLD PRICING FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP (9524 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. 

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE   NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 9524 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,   & FEB. 0 APRIL:9524 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  9524 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED  TOTAL OF 23,528 CONTRACTS IN THAT 9524 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A  HUGE SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 14,004  CONTRACTS..AND SURPRISINGLY THIS OCCURRED WITH A STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $14.60. 

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR   (35.869),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 35.869 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $14.60) BUT  THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAVE  REGISTERED AN ATMOSPHERIC  SIZED GAIN  OF 73.18 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR (35.869 TONNES)…

WE HAD  –1736 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 23,528 CONTRACTS OR 2,352,800 OZ OR 73.18 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 153,688 ///weak

Confirmed volume yesterday: 330,060contracts  good

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAR ’22 COMEX GOLD //MARCH 14

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in ozniloz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz18,904.788 oz
Manfra//
Manfra402 kilobars
Malca171 kilobars
Manfra
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz999 kilobars 
 32,115.849 OZ
Manfra 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz200,427.371 oz
Brinks
Malca:  160,755.000 oz
5,000 kilobarsManfra
32,183.151 oz
1001 kilobars
No of oz served (contracts) today788  notice(s)78800 OZ
2.4510 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)1290 contracts 129,000 oz
4.0124 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month10,242 notices
1,024,200 OZ
31.857 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

For today:

1)dealer deposit 

i)Into Manfra: 32,118.849 oz 999 kilobars

total dealer deposit 32,118.849 oz

No dealer withdrawal 0

3 customer deposits

i) Into Brinks 7,489.220 oz

ii) Into Malca:  160,755.000 oz (5000kilobars)

iii) Into Manfra:  32,183.151 oz (1001 kilobars

total deposit: 200,427.371  oz

2 customer withdrawal

i) Out of Manfra  5497.821  oz  171 kilobars

ii) Out of Malca: 12,924.702 oz (402 kilobars)

total withdrawals: 18,904.788     oz  

ADJUSTMENTS:  1/

a)  dealer to customer:

Manfra:  49,187.530 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH.

For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 2078 contracts having GAINED  301

We had 293 notices filed yesterday so strangely again on day 10 we gained another whopper of a queue jump i.e. 594 contracts or an additional 59,400 oz will  stand for delivery and these guys refused again to be EFP’d over to London. They must

be after large amounts of gold on this side of the pond after Russia cannot//will not supply any precious metals to London. The 59,400 oz is represented by 1.847 tonnes, 

April saw a loss of 19,447 contracts down to 319,543.

May saw a gain of 88 contracts to stand at 4173

June saw a GAIN of 30,568 contracts up to 242,680 contracts

We had 788 notice(s) filed today for 78800  oz FOR THE MAR 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 750 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 788 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 363 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 5  notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,242) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (MAR: 2078 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  788 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,153,200 OZ  OR 35.869 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of mar. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month:

No of notices filed so far (10,242) x 100 oz+   (2078)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (788} x 100 oz} which equals 1,153,200 oz standing OR 35.869 TONNES in this  NON active delivery month of MAR.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  35.869 TONNES  (A WHOPPER FOR A MAR (NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

191,133,764.7, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

123,963.792 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.86 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

243,923.704, oz  JPM No 2  7.58 TONNES

898,821.330 oz pledged  Brinks/27,96 TONNES

12,249,333 oz International Delaware:  0..3810 tonnes

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold:  1,543,044.471 oz                                     47.99 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIG GOLD AT THE COMEX: 33,161,934.664  OZ (1031.47TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,624,437.540 OZ (485.98 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,537,497.127 OZ  (545.e48 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,994,453.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  497.49 tonnes

END

MAR 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//MARCH 14

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory334,963.420  oz
CNT
Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil
OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory7188.95 oz
CNT
Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)135CONTRACT(S)
675,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)363 contracts 
(1,815,,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)10,065 contracts 
50,325,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposits into the dealer

total dealer deposits:  nil       oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into CNT:  5,253.100 oz

ii) Into Delaware: 1935.85 oz

total deposit:  7188.95 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 182.328 million oz/344.619 million =52.85% of comex 

ii) Comex withdrawals: 2

a) Out of CNT: 332,919.720 oz

b) Out of Delaware 2043.700 oz

total withdrawal 334,963.420  oz

we had 1 adjustments//  out of customer

JPMorgan 5271.100 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 92.094 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 344.619 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MARCH

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MARCH OI:  498, HAVING LOST 165 CONTRACTS FROM FRIDAY.

WE HAD 520 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY, SO WE GAINED A STRONG 355 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 1,775,000 OZ WILL  STAND

 FOR DELIVERY OVER HERE AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO BE EFP’D TO LONDON. 

APRIL HAD A  1 CONTRACT GAIN// CONTRACTS RISING TO 648

MAY HAD A LOSS OF 1277 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 126,154 contracts

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 135 for 675,000 oz

Comex volumes: 52,287// est. volume today//fair/

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 58,443 contracts (FAIR )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  10,065 x 5,000 oz = 50,325,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR (498) and the number of notices served upon today 135 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the MAR./2021 contract month: 10,020 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR (498)  – number of notices served upon today (135) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month equates 52,140,000 oz. .

(DATA CORRECTED FROM A SMALL ERROR IN FRIDAY’S DATA)

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:


MARCH 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $22.75, HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//STRANGE: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.16 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.54 TONNES

MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.55: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.06 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.28 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.85//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.64 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.34 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD UP $46.10: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 8.42 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1062.70 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.28 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.22 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.95: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.84 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.22 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80//A MONSTER CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.38 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $42.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD UP $17.35//A HUGE  CHANGE AT THE GLD: 5.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD// IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $6.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

FEB 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD UP $29.50: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP 414.60 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.70 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $27.20 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.50 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD IVNETORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF 3.48 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $5.95 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.60 TONNES//

FEB 4/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.84 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.59 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.95//A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.78 TONES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.04 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

CLOSING INVENTORY FOR THE GLD//1064.16 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY; STRANGE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.125 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.022 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.174 MILLION OZ OF FAKE SILVER.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER UP 88 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.217 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS A 548.071 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.32 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 198,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP $1.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.052 MILLION OZ//

FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 546.052 MILLION OZ//

FEB 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.510 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.052 MILLION OZ/

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ

FEB 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 350,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.017 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.227 MILLION OZ

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.402 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.210 MILLION OZ/

FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLIONOZ

FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ//

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.235 MILLION OZ INTO THES LV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ///

SLV/FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.143 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.218 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.430 MILLION OZ/

FEB 4/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILION OZ

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT539.212 MILLION OZ//

FEB 2/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.411 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.801 MILLION OZ

SLV FINAL INVENTORY FOR TODAY: 545.022 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Schiff: Gold Neared Record Highs This Week… And It’s Not Just Russia

SUNDAY, MAR 13, 2022 – 05:15 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Gold pushed above $2,000 an ounce on Tuesday and made a run at the all-time record high. The yellow metal was up $54 on the day, closing at $2,052 despite some selling after it nudged the all-time high.

Some of this is clearly safe-haven buying due to the situation in Russia, and a lot of analysts think gold will fall back to earth once that situation resolves. But Peter Schiff doesn’t think so. In his podcast, he explains why gold would be going up even if Russia never invaded Ukraine.

Gold stocks have lagged behind the rally in physical metal. Peter said this indicates that a lot of investors don’t think this gold rally will hold.

Gold is going up, as it should go up. But because of this event, you have people who think, well, that’s the only reason gold’s going up.”

And at some point, the situation in Ukraine will resolve.

A lot of people think, well, as soon as this thing gets resolved, the price of gold is going to crash, and so I’m not going to buy these gold stocks based on a temporarily inflated gold price. … If you think the gold price is going to crash once we have some type of resolution of this Russia situation, you are reluctant to pay up for these gold stocks.”

But Peter said he doesn’t think an end to the Russia-Ukraine war is bearish for gold. He did concede that the price of gold would likely drop on the day we get news that the war is resolved and sanctions are lifted. But Peter said it won’t stay down.

Before too long, whether it’s a matter of days or maybe a matter of weeks, gold will make a new high. Because gold is going up regardless of what goes on with Russia and Ukraine.”

Keep in mind, gold was on an upward trajectory before the Russian invasion. The Fed was on the cusp of raising rates, so higher interest rates were already factored into the price. The US economy was already in the process of rolling over. Just look at the January trade deficit. It set another record high.

The US economy is extremely weak. We are hemorrhaging red ink with these massive deficits. These deficits would have been weighing down the dollar.”

In fact, the dollar was falling prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The war has driven safe-haven buying into the dollar over the last couple of weeks. This is actually a headwind for gold.

The gold market was already looking behind the rate-hike mountain into the rate-cutting valley because after the Fed finished the rate hike cycle, which I think was going to be a very truncated cycle — it may have even ended before it began because even the tiniest of pins would prick this bubble. And as the US economy moved into recession, the Fed would reverse course, cut rates, return to QE, and I think the gold market already started to factor that in. And so, since the Russia situation has now caused this safe-haven rally into the dollar – the dollar index now at 99 – that is a headwind for gold. Had the dollar index continued to fall, that would have been more bullish for the price of gold.”

Also prior to the invasion, there was a major rotation out of US stocks into European stocks. In a rotation out of momentum into value, Europe had a lot of those value stocks. That was putting even more pressure on the dollar. Meanwhile, we were also seeing a movement into commodities, including gold and silver. So the situation was generally bullish for gold prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Peter said the Russia-Ukraine situation is “just a bunch of noise.”

The real story is one of inflation. And the inflation story is getting bleaker and bleaker for America and other countries, and brighter and brighter for gold.”

Think about how much the landscape has changed for gold in a bullish direction. Today, we have $125 oil, food prices are skyrocketing, the NASDAQ is in a bear market.

So now, whatever investors were penciling in as far as how many hikes the Fed was going to make, or how quickly or by how much the Fed’s balance sheet was going to shrink, they’ve had to refigure those numbers. They’ve had to cross out some of the rate hikes that they had penciled in or erase them. The same thing with QE. Clearly, whatever you thought the Fed was going to do, they’re going to do less of it given what’s going on right now.”

We may get one-and-done with rate hikes. And the Fed may not even start shrinking the balance sheet. This is bullish for gold with or without the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

In this podcast, Peter also talks about the stock market, the price of oil and bitcoin.

END

2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James  RICKARDS/

Rickards: The Sanctions Boomerang & Putin’s Options

SATURDAY, MAR 12, 2022 – 09:20 AM

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoninig.com,

Putin’s Options

There’s no doubt that the financial sanctions put on Russia by the U.S., the U.K., EU members and others are the most severe ever imposed. The U.S. Treasury has announced 15 separate sanctions programs in recent days and no doubt more are on the way.

The targets of these sanctions include Russian banks, Russian stocks and bonds and various payment channels. Most significantly, the U.S. froze the accounts of the Central Bank of Russia. That’s the first time a major central bank’s assets have been frozen since the Cold War, and possibly ever.

Yet the financial attacks on Russia go far beyond official sanctions.

Numerous private companies including Microsoft, Exxon Mobil, Shell and some major airlines have ceased their business activities in Russia. Visa and Mastercard have stopped accepting credit card charges from Russia. Google and Apple have turned off the mobile payment apps on phones held by Russian citizens.

Shipping giant Maersk has stopped its vessels from unloading or taking cargo from Russian ports. Stock index funds are pushing Russian companies out of their indexes and the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund is divesting Russian stocks. The list of public and private embargoes and boycotts goes on.

The financial impact on Russia will be extreme. The Russian economy may be expected to collapse by 20% or more in the first half of 2022, an amount comparable to the economic collapses in the second quarter of 2020 during the first lockdown stage of the pandemic.

The Sanctions Boomerang

But Russia has not stood still. The Central Bank of Russia imposed capital controls so that Russian companies cannot pay interest or principal on international debts. That means those loans and bonds may soon go into default.

Many such securities may be stuffed into 401(k) plans of Americans under the umbrella of “emerging markets” funds or ETFs. Even more important is the possibility that interbank lending may start to dry up as Russian banks are frozen and Western banks reduce leverage and shrink balance sheets in order to reduce risk.

This will lead to defaults in the West and could even mark the beginning of a global liquidity crisis that can only be contained by Federal Reserve currency swap lines, like we saw in the early stages of the pandemic when markets were collapsing.

But even that technique may not work since there are no swap arrangements in place between the Fed and the Central Bank of Russia. The shooting war may or may not be over soon, but the financial war has just started and will continue after the shooting stops.

For that matter, a global financial panic may emerge even before the shooting stops. We all see what’s happening on the surface. Here’s what you don’t see: Someone is on the wrong side of every one of those trades. Hedge funds and banks are losing billions and are sinking. It takes about a week for bodies to float to the surface.

And foreign investors who try to sell Russian companies will find that their sales are blocked. Russia imposed capital controls so that Russian borrowers cannot pay their creditors in dollars or euros.

So yes, sanctions will hurt Russia. But like a boomerang, those same sanctions can hurt the U.S. economy, which is on shaky ground as it is.

It’s almost like cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Russia Still Has Options

And Russia can work around the sanctions to obtain at least some access to the global financial system. The main loophole is that Russia may still receive dollar payments for oil and natural gas. Those payments may be frozen inside the central bank, but they can still be received and added to Russia’s reserves.

Russia can also transact outside the SWIFT messaging system using older technologies such as telex and internet channels outside of SWIFT. Russians can also transact through Chinese and other banks that have not joined the sanctions.

Also, Russia’s official media report that Putin seeks to establish a ban on the export of certain products and raw materials outside the country by the end of 2022.

Besides oil and natural gas, Russia exports substantial amounts of food crops and precious metals used in industrial production like aluminum, titanium, palladium, platinum, nickel, cobalt and copper.

This is the most important move yet. Consumers are familiar with the retail end of the supply chain. But they aren’t as familiar with the input end. If you can’t source the raw materials, you can produce finished goods.

For example, the farmers who grow food and raise livestock and the butchers and food processors who prepare that output into meat, poultry, bread and dairy products are not the source of the supply; they are intermediaries. The source of the supply chain is in fertilizers made from chemicals, especially nitrogen and phosphate.

Any break or bottleneck anywhere in this supply chain will result in either higher prices or empty shelves at the consumer end.

If Russian nitrogen exports are diminished and prices soar, that has a global impact including on U.S. farms. The impact of higher fertilizer prices does not stop with grain. Most grains are used not for direct consumption by humans but as feed grains for livestock. That means the fertilizer price increase will flow through to meat, poultry, eggs and dairy products.

These breaks are already occurring. Russia and Ukraine together provide more than 25% of the wheat supply in world trade and 20% of global corn sales. Ukrainian exports are already in disarray because of the war and Russian exports are being handicapped by the sanctions.

Don’t Forget About Russia’s Gold

Finally, Russia has $150 billion in official physical gold bullion. This gold cannot easily be sold or bartered, but it can be leased or used as collateral for hard-currency loans.

The latest dumb idea out of Washington is to freeze Russian gold. But the gold is physical and it’s inside Russia. The only way to freeze it is to leave it outside in the winter. You can freeze dollar-sale proceeds, but Russia’s a buyer not a seller. It can buy gold directly from Russian mines.

And Russia can use parallel loan structures (which haven’t been used much since the 1970s) where a lender inside Russia can also be a borrower outside Russia in a separate transaction with the obligations netted out.

None of this is efficient relative to a normally functioning system, but it does work. The bottom line is that the Russian economy will muddle through despite the sanctions, although with higher costs, more risk and less liquidity.

The main point for investors to understand is the damage will not be confined to Russia. These inefficiencies and this illiquidity will ripple out to all parts of the global financial system.

Investors should prepare now with larger allocations to cash and gold and by reducing stock market exposure. It’s a good idea to build up your own liquidity before the wave of defaults and margin calls hits home

PAM AND RUSS MARTENS:

-END-

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: 

-END-

3.  Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Gold demand surges across the world as the Ukraine-Russian war intensifies

(BloombergNews/GATA)

Gold demand surges across the world as Ukraine war flares

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-03-13 23:32Section: Daily Dispatches

By Eddie Spence and Yvonne Yue Li
Bloomberg News
via the Irish Examiner, Cork, Ireland
Sunday, March 13, 2022

Gold is playing its age-old role as a safe haven in times of wars and crises, and people all over the world are piling in.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent the price of everything from oil and gas to wheat and metals skyrocketing, sparking inflation fears and threatening global growth

hat is driving retail investors everywhere from Vienna and Singapore to New York to the safety of gold, which spiked to $2,070.44 an ounce, close to the record reached during the pandemic.

The almost 10% surge in gold prices since the start of the year is turning into a boon for bullion dealers like Rudolf Brenner, founder of Philoro Edelmetalle, whose shops in German-speaking Europe now have long lines of buyers — a trend that is likely to continue with the conflict showing no signs of abating.

“When the crisis in Ukraine started, we saw massive orders,” said Mr. Brenner, whose sales are triple their normal level. 

Similar stories are emerging from gold dealerships around the world. At Empire Gold Buyers in New York, chief executive Gene Furman says 30% of his customers trading luxury items like watches and jewellery want bullion instead of cash. 

Gregor Gregersen, founder of Silver Bullion in Singapore, saw gold and silver sales rise 235% in the first week following Russia’s invasion, and demand has only intensified since.

The soaring demand comes after an already strong year for physical metal buying, particularly in Western nations. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40827869.html

end

The freezing of the nickel market irked LME traders as they reversed $4 billion in trades. Please read Tom Luongo’s version of why this took place and what will happen from this time forth.

(Wigglesworth/London’s Financial Times)

Soviet Metals Exchange’: LME irks traders by freezing nickel market, reversing $4 billion in trades

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-03-13 12:07 Section: Daily Dispatches

Are idiot Comex gold and silver futures traders paying attention?

* * *

Philip Stafford and Robin Wigglesworth
Financial Times, London
Saturday, March 12, 2022

The London Metal Exchange has enraged some of the world’s most influential electronic traders after it shut down its nickel market and unwound thousands of deals in response to a spike in the price of the metal.

The crisis measure came after the metal’s value more than doubled in two days, to a record above $100,000 a tonne, as a large bet against the nickel price left the tycoon behind Tsingshan Holding Group, China’s leading stainless steel group, facing billions of dollars in potential losses.

But the exchange also cancelled all 5,000 nickel trades that had been executed on Tuesday, worth nearly $4 billion. Mark Thompson, vice-chair of Tungsten West and a longstanding trader on the LME, estimated the exchange had wiped out $1.3 billion of profit and loss on the deals. It was “in the interests of the market as a whole,” the LME said.

Some market participants say that in effectively scrubbing the day from the record books, the exchange crossed a line. Not only did the LME fail to manage the risks, but it also picked a side when it should be neutral, they say.

AQR, one of the largest hedge funds in the world, is exploring legal options in its dispute with the LME after losing out on significant profits from the exchange’s decision, according to people familiar with the matter.

In a series of posts on Twitter, Clifford Asness, founder of the $140 billion fund, described the LME as “slime balls.” This was, he said, the first time he had been told “you don’t get your legitimate profits because, gee, someone else, a broker who didn’t manage things so well, might suffer.”

“I’m accusing you [the LME] of reversing trades to save your favoured cronies and robbing your non-crony customers,” he went on. 

The LME denied that parent company Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing had influenced its decision. …

Alex Gerko, co-chief executive of electronic market maker XTX Markets, labelled it the “Soviet Metal Exchange.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/898b6f27-ea75-419e-9e60-89e6d8ae4c2e

end

Russia says that sanctions have frozen half of its financial reserves.  The other half not frozen is gold.

(Reuters/GATA)

Russia says sanctions have frozen nearly half its financial reserves

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-03-13 11:42Section: Daily Dispatches

By Mark Trevelyan
Reuters
Sunday, March 13, 2022

LONDON — Russia said today it was counting on China to help it withstand the blow to its economy from Western sanctions, which it said had frozen nearly half of its gold and foreign currency reserves.

“We have part of our gold and foreign exchange reserves in the Chinese currency, in yuan. And we see what pressure is being exerted by Western countries on China in order to limit mutual trade with China. Of course, there is pressure to limit access to those reserves,” Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said.

“But I think that our partnership with China will still allow us to maintain the cooperation that we have achieved, and not only maintain, but also increase it in an environment where Western markets are closing.”

Western countries have imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia’s corporate and financial system since it invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 in what it calls a special military operation. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-says-nearly-half-its-reserves-are-frozen-counts-ties-with-china-2022-03-13/

end

A small dip in BIS gold swaps in February

(Robert Lambourne)

Robert Lambourne: Small decline in BIS gold swaps in February

Submitted by admin on Sat, 2022-03-12 09:34Section: Daily Dispatches

By Robert Lambourne
Saturday, March 12, 2022

The recently released February 2022 statement of account of the Bank for International Settlements —

— contains information suggesting a decrease of about 29 tonnes in the bank’s gold swaps, from 501 tonnes as at the end of January to 472 tonnes at the end of February. 

This compares to the record 12-month high estimated at 552 tonnes as of end February 2021. Gold swaps continue to be an important source of gold used in the BIS gold banking business with 53% of this gold being supplied by gold swaps.

Once again it is clear that the BIS remains an active trader of significant volumes of gold swaps on a regular basis. The recent data still suggests that there is no clear downward or upward trend in the volume of BIS swaps and hence it still seems premature to claim that an exit from the swaps due to “Basel III” regulations is happening.

The BIS rarely comments publicly on its gold banking activities, but its first use of gold swaps was considered important enough to cause the bank to give some background information to the Financial Times for an article published July 29, 2010, coinciding with publication of the bank’s 2009/10 annual report.

The general manager of the BIS at the time, Jaime Caruana, said the gold swaps were “regular commercial activities” for the bank, and he confirmed that they were all carried out with commercial banks and so did not involve other central banks. Hence it is likely that the recent level of gold swaps is the highest use of them by the BIS for at least 20 years. It also seems highly likely that the swaps are still all made with commercial banks, because the BIS annual report has never disclosed a gold swap between the BIS and a major central bank.

The swap transactions potentially create a mismatch at the BIS, which conceivably ends up being long unallocated gold (the gold held in BIS sight accounts at major central banks) and short allocated gold (the gold required to be returned to swap counterparties). This possible mismatch has not been reported by the BIS.

The gold banking activities of the BIS have been a regular part of the services it offers to central banks since the establishment of the BIS 90 years ago. The first annual report of the BIS explains these activities in some detail:

http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/archive/ar1931_en.pdf

The use of gold swaps to take gold held by commercial banks and then deposit it in gold sight accounts held in the name of the BIS at major central banks doesn’t appear to have ever been as large a part of the BIS’ gold banking business as it has been in recent years.

At March 31, 2010, excluding gold owned by the BIS, there were 1,706 tonnes held in gold sight accounts at major central banks in the name of the BIS, of which 346 tonnes or 20% was sourced from gold swaps from commercial banks.

The BIS now operates a much smaller gold banking business and the role of gold swaps in this smaller business is proportionately far greater. 

In February, excluding the 102 tonnes of gold owned by the BIS, some 53% of the gold held in sight accounts at major central banks on behalf of the BIS came from gold swaps.

If the BIS was adopting the level of disclosures made by publicly held companies, such as commercial banks, then some explanation of these changes probably would have been required by the accounting regulators. One imagines that this irony is not lost on those dealing with regulatory activities at the BIS. Presumably the shrinkage of the gold banking business shows that even central banks now prefer to hold their own gold or hold it in earmarked form — that is, as allocated gold.

A review of Table B below highlights recent BIS activity with gold swaps, and despite the recent declines, the latest position estimated from the BIS monthly statements remains large.

No explanation for this continuing high level of swaps has been published by the BIS. Indeed, no comment on the bank’s use of gold swaps has been offered since 2010.

This gold is supplied by bullion banks via the swaps to the BIS. The gold is then deposited in BIS gold sight accounts (unallocated gold accounts) at major central banks such as the Federal Reserve.

The BIS’ use of gold swaps and derivatives has been extensive over the last 12 months, with the average level reported during that period still being the highest since August 2018 as highlighted in Table B below.

By contrast, in May 2019 the BIS was exposed to only 78 tonnes in swaps.

As can be seen in Table A below, the BIS has used gold swaps extensively since its financial year 2009-10. No use of swaps is reported in the annual reports for at least 10 years prior to the year ended March 2010.

The February 2021 estimate of the bank’s gold swaps (552 tonnes) is higher than any level of swaps reported by the BIS at its March year-end since March 2010. The swaps reported at March 2021 is the highest year-end level reported as is clear from Table A.

—–

Table A — Swaps reported in BIS annual reports

March 2010: 346 tonnes.
March 2011: 409 tonnes.
March 2012: 355 tonnes.
March 2013: 404 tonnes.
March 2014: 236 tonnes.
March 2015: 47 tonnes.
March 2016: 0 tonnes.
March 2017: 438 tonnes.
March 2018: 361 tonnes.
March 2019: 175 tonnes
March 2020: 326 tonnes
March 2021: 490 tonnes

—–

The table below reports the estimated swap levels since August 2018. It can be seen that the BIS is actively involved in trading gold swaps and other gold derivatives with some changes from month to month reported in excess of 100 tonnes in this period.

—–

Table B — Swaps estimated by GATA
from BIS monthly statements of account

Month ….. Swaps
& year … in tonnes

Feb-22 …/472
Jan-22 …/501
Dec-21 …/414
Nov-21 …/451
Oct-21…./414
Sep-21 … /438
Aug-21 …./464
Jul-21 …. /502
Jun-21 …./471
May-21 …./517
Apr-21 …. /472
Mar-21…. /490±
Feb-21 …../552
Jan-21 …. /523
Dec-20 …. /545
Nov-20 …. /520
Oct-20 …. /519
Sep-20…../ 520
Aug-20…../ 484
Jul-20 ….. / 474
Jun-20 …. / 391
May-20 …. / 412
Apr-20 …. / 328
Mar-20 …. / 326*
Feb-20 …. / 326
Jan-20 …. / 320
Dec-19 …. / 313
Nov-19 …. / 250
Oct-19 …. / 186
Sep-19 …. / 128
Aug-19 …. / 162
Jul-19 ….. / 95
Jun-19 …. / 126
May-19 …. / 78
Apr-19 ….. / 88
Mar-19 …. / 175
Feb-19 …. / 303
Jan-19 …. / 247
Dec-18 …. / 275
Nov-18 …. / 308
Oct-18 …. / 372
Sep-18 …. / 238
Aug-18 …. / 370

± The estimate originally reported by GATA was 487 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 490 tonnes, It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.

* The estimate originally reported by GATA was 332 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 326 tonnes. It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.

GATA uses gold prices quoted by USAGold.com to estimate the level of gold swaps held by the BIS at month-ends.

—–

As noted already, the BIS in recent times has refused to explain its activities in the gold market, nor for whom the bank is acting:

http://www.gata.org/node/17793

Despite this reticence the BIS is almost certainly acting on behalf of central banks in taking out these swaps, as they are the BIS’ owners and control its Board of Directors.

This refusal to explain prompts some observers to believe that the BIS acts as an agent for central banks intervening surreptitiously in the gold and currency markets, providing those central banks with access to gold as well as protection from exposure of their interventions.

One possibility is that the swaps provide a mechanism for bullion banks to return gold originally lent to them by central banks to cover possible shortfalls of gold. Some commentators on the gold market have suggested that a portion of the gold held by exchange-traded funds and managed by bullion banks is sourced directly from central banks.

—–

Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults with GATA about the involvement of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market.

end

A must view…

(Andrew Maguire)

Sanctions against Russia threaten London gold and silver markets, Maguire says

Submitted by admin on Sat, 2022-03-12 09:21Section: Daily Dispatches

9:16a ET Saturday, March 12, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Russia, like China, has much more official gold than it has reported and the two nations are considering using the “nuclear option” against the petrodollar, London gold trader Andrew Maguire claims in his weekly interview with Shane Morand for Kinesis Money.

That is, Maguire says, Russia would demand gold as payment for its oil exports.

Further, Maguire says, the Bank of Russia’s increasing acquisition of domestically produced gold will reduce supply on the international market, just as economic sanctions against Russia will reduce supply of Russian silver to the London market.

The interruption of Russian silver supply to London, Maguire says, is already imperiling silver delivery commitments and silver derivatives, raising the threat of defaults.

Maguire’s interview with Morand is 37 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

For your interest….

Looks like the U.S. government also wanted nickel shorted

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-03-11 14:05Section: Daily Dispatches

JPMorgan being pretty much the U.S. government.

* * *

JPMorgan Is Biggest Counterparty for Nickel Tycoon’s Short Bets

By Jack Farchy and Alfred Cang
Bloomberg News
Friday, March 11, 2022

JPMorgan Chase & Co. is the largest counterparty to the nickel trades of the Chinese tycoon caught in an unprecedented short squeeze, putting the bank at the center of one of the most dramatic moments in metals market history.

About 50,000 tons of Xiang Guangda’s total nickel short position of over 150,000 tons is held through an over-the-counter position with JPMorgan, according to people familiar with the matter. 

Based on that figure, the tycoon’s company, Tsingshan Holding Group Co., would have owed JPMorgan about $1 billion in margin on Monday. The nickel producer has been struggling to pay margin calls to its banks and brokers, Bloomberg reported this week. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-11/jpmorgan-is-biggest-counterparty-for-nickel-tycoon-s-short-bets

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

a must view…

 ANDREW MAGUIRE/in the vault//episode 65
Search instead for ANDREW MAGUIRE/in the vault//eposide 65

PREVIEW

37:24

Ep: 65 – Live From The Vault – Russia sanctions hit physical …

YouTube · Kinesis Money

2 days ago

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES/ DIESEL FUEL

Diesel shortage now quite prevalent in the USA and that raises the risk of even greater oil price spikes

Kemp/Market Analyst/Reuters

Global Diesel Shortage Raises Risk Of Even Greater Oil Price Spike

SATURDAY, MAR 12, 2022 – 11:30 AM

By John Kemp, Senior Market Analyst at Reuters

Global stocks of diesel and other middle distillates have fallen to the lowest seasonal level since 2008, when similar shortages of these transport and industrial fuels helped to propel oil prices to a record high. Distillate fuel oil inventories in the United States are 30 million barrels (21%) below the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average and at the lowest level since 2005, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

Stocks in Europe are 35 million barrels (8%) below the pre-pandemic five-year average at the lowest level since 2008, Euroilstock, which compiles inventory data on behalf of the European Union, found.

And middle distillate stocks in Singapore are 4 million barrels (32%) below the pre-pandemic five-year average and also at the lowest since 2008, according to the country’s Ministry of Trade and Industry.

Combined inventories across the three locations have fallen by 110 million barrels compared with the same point last year, as consumption has persistently outpaced production. (https://tmsnrt.rs/37aVdIf).

Demand for diesel and other middle distillates is highly geared to the economic cycle since they are mainly used in freight transportation, manufacturing, farming, mining and oil and gas extraction.

The rapid rebound in economic activity after the first wave of the pandemic and associated lockdowns, and its focus on diesel-intensive manufacturing and freight, has boosted use of the fuel. At the same time, refiners have restrained crude processing to deplete the excess stocks that built up during the coronavirus recession and adapt to lower demand from passenger airlines for jet fuel. But the continued depletion of distillate inventories has become unsustainable.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent boycott of Russian fuel threatens to make diesel shortages worse (“Shell, BP halt spot German diesel sales on scarcity fears”, Reuters, March 10). Actual or potential fuel shortages have been reported in France, Germany, Hungary and Sweden (“Austria’s OMV restricts Hungary fuel sales as supply fears grip Europe”, Reuters, March 11).

Distillate production will have to be raised above consumption for a period to rebuild stocks to a more comfortable level.

There is some scope for refiners to boost distillate output by increasing crude processing back to pre-pandemic rates but that will transform a shortage of distillate into a shortage of crude oil.

Pressure to stabilize and rebuild distillate inventories will cause refiners’ crude consumption to accelerate later this year and into 2023. But the global crude market is already exceptionally tight and the extra crude demand will cause it to tighten further.

The global distillate shortage is threatening to create a severe spike in oil prices just as it did in the first half of 2008.

If prices are adjusted for inflation and converted to 2022 values, Brent crude surged from an already high $135 per barrel at the end of February 2008 (not far from recent prices) to $187 per barrel at the end of June and briefly above $196 in July.

“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop,” economist Herbert Stein, who had been U.S. President Richard Nixon’s chief economic adviser, said in 1986. In this case, the only question is how the depletion of distillate stocks will be turned around. Faster production. Slower consumption. Or both.

Either the oil industry must find a way to boost crude and distillate supplies or the economic expansion must slow to ease diesel demand.

end

NICKEL UPDATE

Crooked to the highest degree!

Chinese Nickel Tycoon Reaches Standstill Deal On Massive Margin Call

MONDAY, MAR 14, 2022 – 01:46 PM

It appears that JPMorgan has finally reached a deal to bail out the Chinese tycoon which is also its biggest Nickel short counterparty.

While by now most are probaly tired of the neverending Nickel saga on the LME, which has been exposed as a joke of a market catering to whale Chinese clients to avoid angering its Hong Kong (read China) owners, moments ago Bloomberg reported that Tsingshan has reached an agreement with a consortium of hedge bank creditors on a standstill arrangement, according to statement.

The report notes that in the course of the standstill period, “Tsingshan and banks will progress discussions on a standby secured liquidity facility intended principally for Tsingshan’s nickel margin and settlement requirements.” Additionally, for the period of the standstill, the participating hedge banks agree not to close out positions against Tsingshan or to make further margin calls in respect of existing positions.

The agreement includes provision for the existing hedge positions to be reduced by Tsingshan in a fair and orderly manner as abnormal market conditions subside.

In other words, Tsingshan has been ring-fenced from the broader market, and it is likely that the LME may soon resume Nickel trading.

The deal follows an earlier report according to which banks led by JPMorgan were in advanced talks for a loan facility to backstop Xiang Guangda’s short position in nickel, “in an attempt to restore stability to the market after an unprecedented squeeze.”

The deal would allow Xiang to maintain his short position, which has roiled the nickel market after he struggled to pay massive margin calls to banks and brokers last week. If it goes ahead, the loan could give the London Metal Exchange the certainty it needs to reopen the nickel market, which has been suspended since last Tuesday morning.

As reported earlier, under the deal being discussed, the roughly 10 banks that were Xiang’s counterparts for his nickel bet would extend enough credit to cover his mark-to-market losses, and would also provide a loan facility to allow Xiang to meet future margin calls should the nickel price increase further.

In exchange, Xiang is offering the banks security over a wide range of assets held by his company Tsingshan Group Holding Co., the world’s top nickel and stainless steel producer, the people said, asking not to be identified as the discussions are private.

The question now is whether once the Nickel market resumes, if we get a GME-rerun where specs seek to slam the price of Nickel even higher to force Tsingshan, now in concert with its banks who are effectively all in the same trade going forward, to eventually crack and force the cartel to cover at even higher prices.

(see Tom Luongo’s commentary)

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING TODAY

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.3652

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3823

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 1022.13 PTS OR 4.97%

2. Nikkei closed UP 145/07 PTS 0.58%

3. Europe stocks  ALL GREEN 

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  99.00/Euro RISES TO 1.0943-

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.195/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 117.94/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 103.25 and Brent: 108.14–

3f Gold  DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED DOWN//  OFF- SHORE  DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.0.340%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 1.94% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 1.31%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.60: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 2.68

3k Gold at $1966.20 silver at: 25.30   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 23.17/100 in roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 110.83

3m oil into the 103 dollar handle for WTI and 108 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 117.94 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9355– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0237 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.068 UP 7 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.419 UP 6 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.80

Futures Fade As Yields Soar, Oil Slides And China Stocks Crater

MONDAY, MAR 14, 2022 – 08:15 AM

US equity futures held on to modest gains overnight as the market desperately clung on to hope that the latest ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine which started on Monday, may yield results (clearly forgetting how the rug was pulled from under the market on Friday in an identical setup), which initially sent stocks higher especially in Europe, despite a surge in 10Y TSY yields to 2.10%, the highest since July 2019, two days ahead of the first Fed rate hike, and a complete collapse in Chinese stocks. And while U.S. index futures were still pointing to a positive open around 8am ET this gain is fading fast, with spoos now up just 0.5% after rising 1% earlier…

… as headlines from the Kremlin suggested that a ceasefire is the last thing on Putin’s mind.

  • *KREMLIN: RUSSIA WILL REALIZE ALL ITS PLANS IN UKRAINE OPERATION
  • *KREMLIN: UKRAINE OPERATION WILL BE COMPLETED ON SCHEDULE
  • *KREMLIN: RUSSIA DIDN’T REQUEST CHINA MILITARY AID FOR OPERATION *KREMLIN: RUSSIA HAS RESOURCES NEEDED TO COMPLETE UKRAINE ACTION

And while futures would normally be deep in the red by now, and will be shortly now that AAPL is at LOD…

  • APPLE FALLS TO SESSION LOW, DROPS 1.6% IN PREMARKET TRADING

… this morning algos are confused by the drop in oil which has emerged as an inverse barometer for peace, however the reason oil is down today is due to the unprecedented lockdown of China’s Shenzhen, announced over the weekend, and which the market is worried may spread to the rest of the market and lead to another Chinese shutdown (spoiler alert: it won’t, but it will cripple US-facing supply chains as the Russia-China alliance makes itself felt).

Meanwhile, and as previewed last night, in addition to the latest surge in covid cases and Shenzhen lockdown, Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong had their worst day since the global financial crisis, as concerns over Beijing’s close relationship with Russia and renewed regulatory risks sparked panic selling. The Hang Seng index dropped more than 4%, sliding below 20,000 to the lowest level since 2015…

… while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closed down 7.2% on Monday, the biggest drop since November 2008.

The Hang Sang Tech Index tumbled 11% in its worst decline since the gauge was launched in July 2020, wiping out $2.1 trillion in value since a year-earlier peak, after the southern city of Shenzhen, a key tech hub near Hong Kong, was placed into lockdown to contain rising Covid-19 infections. The broader Hang Seng Index lost 5%.

“If the U.S. decides to impose sanctions on China in total or on individual Chinese companies doing business with Russia, that would be a concern,” said Mark Mobius, who set up Mobius Capital Partners after more than three decades at Franklin Templeton Investments. “The whole story is still up in the air in this case.”

In premarket trading, U.S.-listed Chinese stocks resumed a steep selloff on Monday, following an 18% rout last week, as concerns about Beijing’s close relationship with Russia added to losses spurred by a Chinese crackdown on tech giants and the growing risk of U.S. delistings. Alibaba (BABA US), JD.com (JD US) both fall 5%. U.S. casinos stocks are also lower in premarket, with multiple headwinds weighing on the sector, including inflation, while listed names with exposure to Macau face additional pressure from surging Covid cases in China’s Guangdong province and in Hong Kong. Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) -1.8%; Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) and MGM Resorts (MGM US) also down in thin trade. Meanwhile, Apple is down 1.6% after supplier Foxconn announced it was halting operations at its Shenzhen sites, one of which produces iPhones, in response to a government- imposed lockdown on the tech-hub city. Apple +0.2% in premarket.

Besides all the geopolitical chaos, this week’s main focus will be on the Fed’s policy meeting, with traders expecting a quarter percentage-point rate hike. “There is little a central bank can do about commodity prices — Fed Chair Powell can hardly dig an oil well in the middle of Washington D.C.,” said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management. “The concern will be about second-round effects — prices encouraging higher wage costs.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was 1.7% higher with automakers and banks leading gains, while miners and energy stocks underperformed.  Tech investor Prosus falls as much as 11% in Amsterdam, the most since March 2020 and touching a record low, following a continued selloff in Chinese technology shares as concerns about Beijing’s close relationship with Russia added to worries over regulatory headwinds. Naspers, which holds a 29% stake in Chinese online giant Tencent through Prosus, slides as much as 15% in Johannesburg, the steepest plunge since November 2000. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • VW preference shares jump as much as 8.7% in Frankfurt and are among the top performers in a buoyant Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts Index after the carmaker pre-released results late Friday. Stifel called it a strong fourth quarter and a “surprisingly confident” outlook.
  • Uniper gains as much as 11%; the power plant operator might benefit from the U.K. government’s potential plans to extend the life of coal-fired power plants, RBC says.
  • Telecom Italia shares rise as much as 9.7% after the firm agreed to a deeper review of KKR’s takeover proposal and said it will ask the private equity giant for more details about its business plan.
  • Phoenix Group shares rise as much as 3.7% after reporting full-year results, with Peel Hunt saying the insurer’s cash generation was “better than expected.”
  • Danone rises as much as 5.6% after Bernstein says the French yogurt maker “seems to be doing everything right” under new management. The brokerage raises its recommendation on Danone and downgrades Reckitt and Unilever.
  • Prosus shares fall as much as 11% in Amsterdam, the most since March 2020, following a continued selloff in Chinese technology shares as concerns about Beijing’s close relationship with Russia added to worries over regulatory headwinds
  • Sanofi slumps as much as 6.2% after the French drugmaker says its mid- stage trial for amcenestrant in breast cancer didn’t meet the primary endpoint.
  • Basic resources shares drop in Europe as commodity prices decline, underperforming the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600, which is gaining on Monday. Rio Tinto falls as much -4.2%, Glencore -4.5%, Anglo American -5.3% lead drop in the Stoxx Europe 600 basic resources sub-index.

As noted above, Asian stocks plunged, led by a record 11% plunge in Chinese tech shares as a lockdown in Shenzhen added to woes including Beijing’s crackdown on the sector and mounting concerns about the economic fallout from sanctions on Russia. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.5% to reach a low last seen September 2020, with heavyweights Alibaba and Tencent diving 11% and 9.8%, respectively. The Hang Seng Tech Index plunged 11% after the southern city of Shenzhen, a key tech hub near Hong Kong, was placed into lockdown to contain rising Covid-19 infections. The broader Hang Seng Index lost 5%. “The latest coronavirus outbreak is raising uncertainties over the Chinese economic outlook while high commodity prices are a drag for the Chinese economy no less than for many other countries, limiting the room for monetary easing,” said Aw Hsi Lien, a strategist at Tokai Tokyo Research. “There’re rising perceptions that this year’s growth target of 5.5% is becoming difficult to achieve.”    Investors also remain on edge over risks for Chinese companies stemming from U.S. actions due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Sentiment was also rattled late last week as U.S. regulators identified Chinese companies that could be kicked off exchanges if they fail to open their books to U.S. auditors. While the delisting risk has been known since last year, the Securities and Exchange Commission’s list served as a “wake up call,” said Willer Chen, an analyst at Forsyth Barr Asia Ltd. “I see no way to solve the dispute” between the U.S. and China under current policies, he said.  The historic sell-off in China also drove many peer Asian equity gauges into the red. Still, shares in resource-rich Australia gained and Japan’s Topix climbed amid expected benefits for exporters from the yen’s fall to a five-year low near 118 per dollar.

Japanese equities climbed, rebounding after last week’s losses, as a weaker yen bolstered the outlook for exporters and a decline in oil provided a respite amid recent inflation concerns. Auto makers and banks were the biggest boosts to the Topix, which gained 0.7%. Tokyo Electron and Advantest were the largest contributors to a 0.6% rise in the Nikkei 225. The yen approached 118 per dollar, extending its loss after weakening more than 2% last week.  The Nikkei 225 dropped 3.2% last week, its worst since November, while the Topix fell 2.5%. In addition to developments on Russia’s war in Ukraine, investors this week will be monitoring monetary-policy decisions from the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve. “As Japan’s economy and wage growth are more subdued than in the U.S., and, thus, the BOJ will be slower to tighten than the Fed, the yen may well trend weaker, although any move beyond 120 would not be encouraged by officials,” Nikko Asset Management strategist John Vail wrote in a note.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index inched inched lower and the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers. European currencies, lead by the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone, were the best performers while the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as well as the yen, fell. Sweden’s krona rallied as much as 1.8% as sentiment improved and as economists expect the country’s central bank to make a policy U-turn later this year, after inflation reached a new 28-year high last month and as price increases are seen accelerating on the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine The pound was steady after falling to November 2020 lows on Friday, while gilts slumped. Focus this week will be on the Bank of England, which is expected to raise interest rates for a third time in a bid to control inflation. The yen fell to a five-year low against the dollar as traders boosted bets on the pace of the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes this year amid accelerating U.S. inflation and as risk reversals backed a less-favorable outlook for the Japanese currency. Australia’s dollar dropped for a second day as oil and iron ore lead commodity prices lower, while sliding Chinese equities weighed on risk sentiment.

In rates, as noted above, Treasuries sold off, led by the belly, following wider losses across bunds as core European rates aggressively bear-steepen. Treasuries and the 5-year Treasury yield topped 2% for the first time since May 2019 while the yield on 10-year Treasuries rose to 2.10%, the highest since July 2019, before easing back to 2.06%. The US front-end slightly outperforms, steepening 2s5s and 2s10s spreads by 1.7bp and 1.3bp. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far; volumes projected for the week are around $30b, following one of the busiest weeks on record

In commodities, WTI drifts ~5% lower to trade at around $103. Brent falls more than 4% to the $107 level. Spot gold falls roughly $27 to trade near $1,962/oz. Spot silver loses 2.6% near $25. Most base metals trade in the red; LME aluminum falls 3.6%, underperforming peers.

Bitcoin was initially subdued beneath USD 38,000 ahead of an EU vote on environmental sustainability standards measure that could lead to a ban on Bitcoin, but later recovered with support also seen following a tweet from Elon Musk. Elon Musk tweeted “I still own & won’t sell my Bitcoin, Ethereum or Doge fwiw”. Japan demanded that cryptocurrency transactions be blocked if they are sanctions related.

Besidesall that, it is a quiet start to thge week with no macro news on today’s calendar.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 4,223.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 433.05
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.31%
  • Euro up 0.4% to $1.0952
  • MXAP down 1.4% to 168.91
  • MXAPJ down 2.1% to 549.22
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 25,307.85
  • Topix up 0.7% to 1,812.28
  • Hang Seng Index down 5.0% to 19,531.66
  • Shanghai Composite down 2.6% to 3,223.53
  • Sensex up 1.2% to 56,207.96
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.2% to 7,149.40
  • Kospi down 0.6% to 2,645.65
  • Brent Futures down 2.7% to $109.60/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.8% to $1,971.65
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.21% to 98.92

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The U.S. and China plan to hold their first high-level, in- person talks since Moscow’s invasion on Monday. The meeting comes after China rejected accusations by U.S. officials that Russia had asked it for military equipment to support the invasion of Ukraine
  • Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong had their worst day since the global financial crisis, as concerns over Beijing’s close relationship with Russia and renewed regulatory risks sparked panic selling
  • Global bond markets are flirting with a 10% drawdown for the first time in over a decade as surging inflation forces yields higher. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, a benchmark for government and corporate debt, has fallen about 9.9% from a high in early 2021, the biggest decline from a peak since 2008, the data show
  • Already pivoting to tightening monetary policy amid the fastest consumer price gains in four decades, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and colleagues now have to deal with the economic fallout of the war, which threatens to deliver the twin blows of weaker growth and even-quicker inflation
  • ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks says “it’s very possible that the bond-buying program will end in the third quarter”
  • Germany’s coronavirus infection rate hit a record for the third straight day on Monday, with the renewed surge prompting the country’s top health official to issue a grim warning
  • Leveraged fund net short aggregate Treasuries bets across the curve have hit the highest in over a year, the latest CFTC data show. The U.S. Treasury market just endured one of its worst weeks of the past decade, with yields propelling toward their highest levels of the past year thanks to worsening inflation and the imminent expected shift in policy
  • The yen’s plunge to a five-year low shows no signs of easing as surging commodity prices have worsened the outlook for Japan’s trade balance and put pressure on the currency’s haven credentials. The nation is a net importer of a long list of raw materials from crude oil and grains to metals, exposing it to higher costs as prices of all these have risen due to sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine
  • Russia has already lost access to almost half of its reserves and sees more risks to President Vladimir Putin’s war chest due to increased pressure from the West on China, said Finance Minister Anton Siluanov
  • Nickel’s 250% price spike in little more than 24 hours plunged the industry into chaos, triggering billions of dollars in losses for traders who bet the wrong way and leading the London Metal Exchange to suspend trading for the first time in three decades. It marked the first major market failure since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine jolted global markets, showing how the removal of one of the world’s largest exporters of resources from the financial system in the space of weeks is having ripple effects across the world

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of newsquawk

Asia-Pacific stocks were somewhat mixed as participants digested varied geopolitical headlines ahead of key risk events. ASX 200 was underpinned by strength in its largest-weighted financial sector and encouragement from M&A related headlines. Nikkei 225 benefitted from further currency weakness but failed to hold above the 25,500 level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were pressured amid several headwinds, including COVID-19 concerns with the technology hub of Shenzhen under a one-week lockdown, which pressured tech and weighed on Macau casino names, as well as dragged the Hong Kong benchmark beneath the 20K level for the first time since 2016

Top Asian News

  • Developers Sink After Weak Home Mortgage Data: Evergrande Update
  • Marcos Keeps Big Lead in Philippine Presidential Survey
  • Funds Managing $130 Trillion Target Lobbying in Climate Plan
  • Hang Seng China Stock Gauge Sinks 7.2%, Most Since Nov. 2008
  • China Locks Down Shenzhen, Entire Jilin Province as Covid Swells

European bourses are firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +2.1%, following a mixed APAC handover amid conflicting headlines as we await details of the latest Ukrainian-Russia talks. Stateside, US futures are firmer across the board but with magnitudes more contained, ES +0.9%, ahead of multiple risk events. Sectors in Europe are mostly firmer though some of the more defensive names are lagging modestly, Autos outperform post-Volkswagen

Top European News

  • European Gas Slumps as Russia, Ukraine to Hold Further Talks
  • British Airways-Operator Comair Still Grounded in South Africa
  • Funds Managing $130 Trillion Target Lobbying in Climate Plan
  • ECB’s Kazaks: ‘Very Possible’ Net Bond-Buying Will End in 3Q
  • U.S.-Listed Chinese Stocks Sink Again as China-Russia Ties Weigh

In FX, Aussie bears the brunt of reversal in commodity prices; AUD/USD hovering around 0.7250 ahead of RBA minutes tomorrow. Yen extends decline on yield and BoJ policy divergence towards 118.00 vs the Dollar. Euro rebounds with risk appetite amidst hopes of constructive Russian-Ukrainian dialogue; EUR/USD finds support around 1.0900 where 1.84bln option expiries reside to trade above 1.0960. Rouble firmer on the premise that positive words will speak louder than negative actions. Yuan depreciates as Covid cases mount in China and PBoC sets a weaker than expected onshore midpoint rate, USD/CNH probes 6.3800 at one stage. Swedish Crown strong in line with latest inflation data and hawkish Riksbank rate calls from Nordea and SEB, EUR/SEK tests Fib support circa 10.5252

In commodities, WTI and Brent continue to unwind geopolitical premia amid mixed Russia-Ukraine developments and the possibility of progress soon. Currently, benchmarks lie near fresh lows of USD 103.42/bbl and USD 107.59/bbl respectively, further impeded by IEA’s Birol. Iraq set April Basrah medium OSP to Asia at Oman/Dubai + USD 3.50/bbl, OSP to Europe at Dated Brent – USD 3.05/bbl and OSP to North and South America. UK PM Johnson is seeking a mega oil deal with the Saudis and is pushing for solar and nuclear energy to cut reliance on foreign oil, while the UK is also considering keeping some coal-fired power stations operational, according to Express and The Times. IEA Chief Birol says responsible producers should increase oil output. French PM Castex said the government will offer EUR 0.15/litre rebate on petrol prices from April to counter high prices with the rebate on fuel to last four months and is expected to cost around EUR 2bln. Japanese PM Kishida will look at measures for high oil prices and raw material food prices whilst watching the situation carefully, according to the Japanese ruling party secretary general; subsequently, Japanese government is to increase the petrol subsidy to around JPY 24/litre and close to the ceiling of JPY 25/litre. Gazprom says it is continuing shipping gas to Europe via Ukraine, Monday’s volume is broadly unchanged at 109.5mln cubic metres; does not intend holding spot gas sale sessions on its electronic sales platform this week. China is planning to boost its coal output by as much as it imports. Spot gold and silver are pressured unwinding safe-haven appeal in-fitting with other typical havens

In Fixed income, the debt rout rages on on as futures take out near term technical supports and yields reach or breach psychological
levels. Curves continue to steepen on resurgent risk sentiment rather than any read respite from sharp retracement in crude prices.
USTs and Gilts anticipating tightening from the Fed and BoE later this week.

US Event Calendar

  • Nothing major scheduled

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’ve tried to keep the introductory paragraphs fairly sober in recent weeks as the challenging time for the world doesn’t really need my flippancy. However I have to share with you this morning that 5 minutes before I started typing this I started walking again for the first time in 6 weeks. The crutches were left by the bed and my morning coffee made without hopping between the cupboard, the sink and the fridge, and then working out how to get my coffee back upstairs while on crutches. It’s amazing how good normality felt. Fingers crossed this operation will buy me a few years before knee replacement. We will see.

The newsflow didn’t look good late on Friday as some earlier positive signs on the conflict talks petered out. In terms of developments there was mixed news last night though as on the positive side some progress seemed to be made on talks, but on the negative side the FT reported that US officials suggested that Russia have asked China for military and economic assistance since the invasion began. The article said that the officials didn’t details China’s response but this came just few hours after White House officials announced that a high-level delegation from the US would meet with a top Chinese official in Rome today.

On the positive side however, Ukrainian negotiator and presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted and posted a video online saying, “Russia is already beginning to talk constructively… … I think that we will achieve some results literally in a matter of days,”. A Russian delegate echoed the sentiment and US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman also highlighted that Russia was showing signs of willingness to engage in substantive negotiations.

DM equity futures are making modest gains in Asia with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.59%), Nasdaq (+0.35% and DAX (+0.59%) all trading higher. US Treasuries are seeing a pretty big move for an Asian session with the 5-yr yield (+6.3bps) moving above 2% for the first time since May 2019 whilst the 10-yr yield is up +5.3bps to 2.044%. Elsewhere Brent futures (-1.93%) are down to $110.50/bbl while WTI futures (-2.41%) are at $106.70/bbl.

Asian equity markets are mostly trading lower though as we start the week following the broadly negative cues from Wall Street on Friday. The Hang Seng (-3.81%) is leading losses across the region with Chinese tech stocks again seeing major declines. Shares in mainland China are also weak with the Shanghai Composite (-1.30%) and CSI (-1.73%) both in negative territory after the southern Chinese tech hub Shenzhen was put under a citywide lockdown over the weekend to slow an outbreak of Covid-19. Elsewhere, the Kospi (-0.72%) is down but the Nikkei (+0.95%) is trading up this morning, reversing its previous session’s losses.

Coming back to the Covid news, the Chinese authorities have placed 17.5 million residents of Shenzhen under lockdown after the city reported 66 fresh Covid cases on Sunday while the nationwide official figure nearly doubled to 3,400. The lockdown and suspension of public transport will last until March 20 and will be accompanied by three rounds of mass testing of residents. At the same time, the surge in cases across China has also prompted the authorities to shut schools for students from kindergarten through middle schools next week in Shanghai. In the neighbouring Hong Kong, the health authorities reported 32,430 new Covid-cases on Sunday with city leader Carrie Lam highlighting that the outbreak has not past its peak yet despite recent number of daily cases “slightly levelling off”.

Looking forward now, and as we all know it’s a big central bank week with the Fed the obvious focal point mid-week. The BoE and the BoJ also hold meetings, along with some of their emerging markets counterparts. We’ll also see CPI for Japan and Canada and a number of housing market statistics in the US and China. Earnings will include Volkswagen, FedEx and Enel, among others.

Wednesday will also be a landmark day even outside of the Fed as this is the date that two Russian Eurobonds have coupon payments. These are small (c.$120bn out of c.$1.75bn of annual hard currency coupons) but will be hugely symbolic. Speaking to one of our EM strategists, Christian Wietoska, and one of our European economists, Peter Sidorov, over the weekend their view was that this would likely mark the start of the 30-day grace period that issuers have before a default is officially triggered. 30-days still gives time for there to be a negotiated end to the war and therefore this probably isn’t yet the moment where we see where the full stresses in the financial system might reside. There has already been a huge mark to market loss already anyway with news coming through or write downs. However this is clearly an important story to watch.

Onto the Fed now and the FOMC concludes on Wednesday, with the Fed expected to raise rates for the first time since December 2018. Markets are pricing in a +25bps hike, in line with the rhetoric from Chair Powell at his congressional testimonies a couple of weeks back. Before the invasion we thought a 50bps was likely this week and the problem is that by delaying such a move they may have to do more later. The market seems to agree to some degree as at Friday’s close the market was pricing in 6.7 hikes this year, the most seen in this cycle and above the post invasion intra-day lows of 4.45. This morning we are at 6.92.

A full preview from our US economists is available here. With regards to QT, they anticipate that the Fed will use this upcoming meeting to announce caps determining the maximum monthly runoff and, in May, announce QT that would begin in June. They think we will see $800bn of runoff this year and an additional $1.1tn drawdown in 2023, a cumulative reduction we think is roughly equal to between three and four rate increases (see “QT update: The sooner the better”). The fascinating thing for me is what this does to the yield curve if they are correct. For me nirvana for the Fed is getting to around neutral, somewhere with a 2 handle on Fed Funds and trying to ensure that 10yr yields rise enough to prevent inversion but not enough to lead to a tightening of financial conditions. So if in 12-18 months time 2 year yields are 2.25-2.5%, 10 year yields are 2.75-3% and inflation is coming back towards trend then the Fed have pulled off a masterstroke. If however, 2yr yields are above 2% and 10yr yields below this level, the inversion will likely bite. On the other hand, if the curve steepens up too much and longer end yields are notably above 3% the risk is that financial conditions tighten too much given the global debt load. So the Fed are trying to thread a needle and its possible inflation will give them an impossible task. Time will tell.

Ahead of the Fed watch out for US PPI (Tuesday) and Retail Sales (Wednesday). They are highly unlikely to change the equation for this FOMC but will be important for the direction of the economy and inflation thereafter. We also get a plethora of US housing data to end the week with Thursday’s housing starts and Friday’s existing homes sales. These are going to be important for both activity and the rents component in CPI.

Back to central banks and on Thursday, it will be the BoE’s turn. Our UK economist previews the meeting here, and is expecting a +25bps hike to 0.75%, the pre-pandemic level. Their projected terminal rate is 1.75%.

Finally, on Friday, the Bank of Japan will hold a meeting as well and a preview can be found here. The central bank is expected to hold the key rate steady but there is a chance of economic assessment being downgraded. The Bank of Russia’s decision on the same day will be scrutinised for the response to risks to the economy from the ongoing geopolitical turmoil.

Back to the week that was now. The war in Ukraine raged on, while negotiations continued to generate little tangible progress as leaders managed expectations down for any near-term resolution. However, there were various green shoots throughout the week when it appeared both Ukrainian and Russian officials left some room for compromise from their original positions.

The glimmers of hope on the war front, along with a more hawkish-than-expected ECB sent sovereign bond yields higher on both sides of the Atlantic this week. Positive news about the supply of oil and gas sent futures lower on the week, despite the US and UK moving to restrict Russian imports.

Oil and European natural gas prices fell -5.07% (+3.05% Friday) and -30.15% (+3.82% Friday) over the week, following a proclamation from President Putin that Russia would honor its energy export commitments, instead of unilaterally cutting off supply in retaliation to sanctions. For its part, the Iraqi oil minister noted OPEC would increase oil production were supply to reach scarcity levels.

The other major story on the week was the ECB meeting, where the central bank signaled more focus on price stability than the potential downside impact to growth from the war. The governing council announced an accelerated tapering of its APP purchases, which would end in Q3, maintaining the option for increases to their policy benchmark rate sometime thereafter should the data merit. The ECB also updated their forecast for 2022 inflation to 5.1 percent and 2.1 percent for 2023.

The tighter than expected policy stance gave rise to higher sovereign bond yields on both sides of the Atlantic, with 10yr bunds, OATs, gilts, and Treasuries rising +31.8bps (-2.5bps Friday), +28.9bps (-2.6bps Friday), +28.3bps (-3.2xbps Friday), and +26.1bps (+0.5bps Friday), respectively. For 10yr bunds that was the largest weekly gain since June 2015, 10yr gilts the largest weekly gain since September 2017, September 2019 for Treasuries, and March 2020 for OATs. Money markets ended the week pricing +40.5bps of ECB tightening this year, up from +24.1bps of tightening at last week’s close.

European equities latched on to this week’s marginally more optimistic news, with the STOXX 600 finishing +2.23% (+0.95% Friday), the first weekly gain in a month. The DAX and CAC also finished the week +4.07% (+1.38% Friday) and +3.28% (+0.85% Friday) higher, respectively. US investors proved more pessimistic, with the S&P 500 retreating -2.88% (-1.30% Friday), with tech underperforming again, as the NASDAQ fell -3.53% (-2.18% Friday). The US indices took a leg lower Friday afternoon after Europe called it a week when Ukrainian leadership didn’t strike as optimistic a tone as Russian leaders surrounding the prospects of negotiations, as well as reports that Belarussian troops were about to join the invasion of Ukraine.

University of Michigan consumer inflation expectations for the next year increased to 5.4 percent, above expectations of 5.1 percent on Friday. This followed the February US CPI data which showed headline and core measures increasing to their highest readings in four decades, which would have headlined just about any other week. In line with this, market-based measures of inflation expectations increased, with 10yr Treasury breakevens widening +27.3bps on the week.

END

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 86.21 PTS OR 2.60%       //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 1022,13 PTS OR 4.97 %  /The Nikkei closed UP 145.07 PTS or 0.58%       //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.13%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.3652    /Oil DOWN TO 103.25 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 108.14 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN        //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3652. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3823: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER//

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA

China is crashing. Here are 11 reasons why!!

(zerohedge)

Meanwhile In China, All Hell Is Breaking Loose

SUNDAY, MAR 13, 2022 – 10:07 PM

With war raging across the world’s bread basket, risk of World War 3 the highest it has been since the Cuban missile crisis, commodities hitting new all time highs every single day, inflation (even the watered down CPI version) set to hit 10% in a few months, and the Fed rushing to hike rates so high it slams the US into a pre-scripted recession (as it somehow hopes to make a “soft landing” even as fed funds futures signal a hard landing and at least 50 bps of rate cuts after the burst of hiking is over later this year), it is easy to forget that China is still around.

So here is a vivid remind that not only has nothing been fixed in the country that single-handedly pulled the world out of depression during the GFC, but that things are going from bad to much worse.

1.  China on brink of biggest Covid-19 crisis since Wuhan as cases surge

China is scrambling to address its most severe Covid-19 outbreak in two years, reporting soaring cases in a fresh wave that has seen the country tweak its zero-Covid policy by allowing rapid antigen tests for public use. After topping 1,000 for two days in a row, new locally transmitted cases surged to more than 3,100, this time driven by a spike in symptomatic infections, the National Health Commission reported on Sunday. It came as 16 provinces reported new coronavirus infections, as did the four megacities of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing.

As a result of the latest covid breakout, China’s government has shut down the city of Shenzhen, a city of 17.5 million people known as China’s Silicon Valley, and is restricting access to Shanghai by suspending bus services. All businesses except those that supply food, fuel and other necessities were ordered to close or work from home. That includes Foxconn, Apple’s Chinese slaves:

  • FOXCONN SUSPENDS OUTPUT AT CHINA HQ, IPHONE SITE IN SHENZHEN

And since the port of Shenzhen – one of the world’s busiest container post is now also locked down, expect a fresh round of cascading chaos in Transpacific supply chains, just in time to join the snarled Transatlantic supply chains as the Ukraine war cripples all global seaborne traffic.Port of Shenzhen

2. Chinese stocks are crashing

The Hang Seng tech index has plunged 61% from its peak last year. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index of U.S.-traded stocks has fared even worse, down 68%, and with another bad day or two, the peak-to-trough decline could surpass its 72% crash in the 2008 global financial crisisMeanwhile, in the US, Chinese ADRs collapsed 10% in a single day on Friday, the worst selloff since 2008, after the SEC listed 5 Chinese companies at risk of delisting should they refuse to show their books to American auditors, stoking panic every ADR will eventually be booted out. “The market is very panicky,” Paul Pang at Pegasus Fund Managers Ltd., who has sold almost all his stake in Alibaba Group, told Bloomberg. “Sanctions against China are not impossible, if China refuses to take sides on the war in Ukraine. Tech shares are among those risky names exposed in the crossfires in the rising Sino-U.S. tensions.”

Fear of a fresh regulatory crackdown by Beijing has escalated lately as policy makers proposed more curbs on online games. Earnings results so far have been unable to ease any worry about the growth outlook amid weakening consumer demand in China. The Hang Seng Tech Index is the one of the world’s worst-performing tech gauges since the war in Ukraine broke out and has dropped 17% in March, on course for its biggest monthly drop ever.

“We can’t see any rebound signals at the present,” said Yan Kaiwen, analyst at China Fortune Securities. The market is concerned about inflation because of the higher prices for oil and other commodities, which will have a negative impact on the global economy, he said.

3. Chinese bonds are crashing

While nothing new to those who have been following the collapse in the Chinese junk bond market – closely linked to China’s property sector – China credit stress reached new extremes in the offshore, USD market, where average junk yields rose above 25% meaning the primary market won’t function properly anytime soon. Contagion has transformed stronger property developers into risky bets. Luxury property developer Shimao Group, which was once considered a bellwether for China’s safer builders, has been slashed deep into junk from investment grade in a matter of months. The firm has been cut to triple C territory by Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings. Logan Group has also been downgraded on undisclosed debt and governance worries. Cracks are also showing up in China’s government bond market. Yields on the 10-year sovereign note rose to 2.86%, the highest this year, as investors pointed to capital outflows.

4. China’s property sector is (still) crashing

China’s property industry has been rocked by at least 14 defaults by developers since authorities began cracking down on excessive borrowing and speculation in the housing market in 2020 which led to a historic default by China Evergrande. While policy makers are now signaling greater tolerance for selective relief by encouraging home buying in lower-tier cities, cutting mortgage rates and allowing more bank loans for developers, there are few signs this is helping boost sales. Unfortunately, these new measures have yet to bear fruit, as China’s biggest developers are seeing home sales crater this year amid a market that is effectively frozen.

Home sales tumbled during the first two months of this year. China Vanke, the nation’s second-biggest developer by sales, saw a decline of 44%. At Country Garden Holdings Co., whose dollar bonds are at close to record lows, sales fell 24%. Even state-run China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. saw them slump 48%.

While more adjustments are expected after the National People’s Congress taking place through this week, there are concerns of an “unstoppable downward spiral” according to Nomura International HK analysts. “We become increasingly worried whether the policy changes will be effective and timely enough to prevent property sales from a further correction” in the first half of this year, analysts Jizhou Dong and Stella Guo wrote in a note late February.

5. China Credit Collapses

February credit data was weaker thank expected after mortgage lending fell for the first time in 15 years. After a record January, China’s credit expansion slowed in February as a long holiday and the slumping housing market meant people and companies borrowed less. Banks lent 1.2 trillion yuan ($194 billion) in the month, down from 4 trillion yuan in January and less than in February last year. A key indicator of home mortgages declined for the first time in at least 15 years despite efforts by the central bank and other financial institutions to boost borrowing by cutting rates and lowering down payments.

Newly increased medium and long-term loans to non-financial companies fell to 505 billion from 1.1 trillion yuan a year ago, indicating companies were also reluctant to borrow and invest.  The weak data came despite provinces selling special bonds, a key source of infrastructure funding, at a faster pace in February than in previous years.

“It’s a pretty bad set of data,” said Zhou Hao, senior emerging markets economist at Commerzbank AG. “There’s a lack of growth driver, and the real economy’s demand is weak,” he said, arguing that “the PBOC will have to cut rates early if it wants to do so” as inflation and capital outflow pressures will start to limit its space later in the year, he said.

6. Didi crashes

Didi halts plans for a HK IPO. Chinese regulators aren’t yet satisfied with the security of its sensitive user data. The stock plunged 44% in US trading on Friday, its biggest one-day drop ever.

7. ESG blues

Norway’s $1.3 Trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world’s biggest, snubs Chinese sportswear stock Li Ning due to concerns over its ties to Xinjiang. Will other “green” funds follow in ditching their Chinese investments? “Norway sovereign fund’s offloading Li Ning is triggering some worries about the attitude over Chinese and Hong Kong stocks in the future,” said Castor Pang, head of research at Core Pacific Yamaichi. The news on Wednesday sent China’s CSI 300 Index tumbling for its sixth day of declines — the longest losing run since March 2020, and the Hang Seng Index finished at its lowest since July 2016 – and only a late day intervention by the National Team avoided an even worse rout. 

The CSI 300 has lost 27% from a peak about a year ago, fueled by a slump in China’s property market and Covid-zero policy. Sentiment soured further on Wednesday as Norway’s $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund announced its exclusion of Li Ning Co. due to the risk that the sportswear maker contributes to serious human rights violations in Xinjiang. The move stoked worries about a potential retreat of other long-term investors. Li Ning plunged 9%.

8. China Doubles Yuan Trading Band for Ruble

The PBOC will double the yuan trading band for the ruble amid signs of distressed liquidity as banks back away from making markets. According to Bloomberg, the currency pair will be allowed to trade 10% around the fixing rate to meet demand for market development from March 11, the China Foreign Exchange Trade System said in a statement. That compares with a previous limit of 5%. The change shows how global financial institutions are attempting to cope with the ruble’s volatility, as Russia is increasingly cut off from markets after it invaded Ukraine. The yuan hit a record high against the ruble last week, with some Chinese banks suspending trading of the currency pair.

The 10% limit compares with 5% for most of the onshore yuan’s foreign exchange pairs. The last time China widened the trading band for a foreign currency was in 2014, when it doubled the permitted range for dollar-yuan to 2%. “It is the policy measure in response to volatile RUB trading,” said Ken Cheung, Asia FX strategist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. “The measure is to give market markers the ability to set the price and improve the RUB/CNY trading liquidity.”

The volatility has led to waning interest to trade the currency pair, with the gap between the bid-ask price hitting a record 197 pips Wednesday. The gap narrowed to 106 pips after the latest announcement. The yuan bought 13.6 ruble on Feb. 25 in China’s onshore spot market. Total bilateral trade between the two countries was valued at $112 billion in 2020. Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin only last month signed a series of deals to boost Russian supply of gas, oil and wheat.

9. Foreigners dump Chinese bonds in record amounts

Foreign investors reduced their holdings of Chinese government bonds by the most ever last month. Overseas investors sold a net 35 billion yuan ($5.5 billion) of Chinese government bonds in February, marking the largest monthly cut on record and the first reduction since March 2021, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Their holdings fell to 2.48 trillion yuan from a record 2.52 trillion in January.

The bond liquidation spurred talk that some may have come from Russia as sanctions from the U.S. and European Union cut off the Russian central bank’s access to much of its $643 billion in foreign reserves. As of June, China’s yuan accounted for 13% of those reserves, according to the central bank data. Analysts at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group estimated that Russia’s central bank and sovereign wealth fund probably own a combined $140 billion of Chinese bonds.

China’s narrowing yield premium over U.S. bonds, a result of diverging monetary policies, has also eroded the allure of the Chinese securities. At about 2.8%, yields on 10-year Chinese bonds are about 105 basis points higher than Treasuries, compared with a gap of more than 220 basis points at the end of 2020.

10. GDP on verge of contraction

In response to weaker consumption and an adverse impact on supply chains, as China doubles down on Covid-zero amid Omicron, Morgan Stanley has cut China’s Q1 GDP by 60bps, to zero growth QoQ, and cut full-year GDP by 20bps, to 5.1%. It will cut more.

11. China to easing aggressively

As a result of all this relentless pain, the China Securities Journal, a mouthpiece for the PBOC and the place where Beijing leaks trial balloons on what is to come, says PBOC may cut RRR and interest rates to stabilize growth. A loose monetary policy is currently required to support growth, the report said echoing what we have been predicting since mid-2021. China is still expected to cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio and interest rates further to stabilize economic growth despite looming U.S. Fed rate hike, China Securities Journal said in the the front-page report Monday, citing analysts. A further cut in RRR and interest rates may have already been placed on the agenda of China’s central bank.

This begs the question: how long can US and China monetary policy diverge, with the former hiking and the latter cutting, before something terminally breaks. One thing is certain: for China to achieve its target of around 5.5% growth this year, with the property market slumping, coronavirus infections rapidly increasing, inflation still high and export demand threatened by the effects of the war in Europe, only a massive monetary stimulus will prevent China from falling into a catastrophic recession. It’s why Premier Li Keqiang told reporters Friday that achieving the growth goal won’t be easy. He also told them he is quitting this year; the two are linked…

h/t Bloomberg’s Sofia Horta e Costa

end

CHINA/RUSSIA/

This is not good:  with Russia losing lots of hits military hardware in their war with Ukraine, they are now seeking military help from China

This will not go over well with the west.

(zerohedge)

Russia Seeking China’s Military Help In Ukraine, US “Sources” Say In Afternoon Of Media Leaks

SUNDAY, MAR 13, 2022 – 04:46 PM

(Update 5:00PM): According to Reuters, when asked about claims that Russia is requesting military help from China, China’s US Embassy said: “I’ve never heard of that.”

* * *

Earlier when commenting on what’s been reported as “significant progress” made in Russia-Ukraine talks, we noted that “It remains to be seen if this is the start of a peaceful resolution to the war or just another false dawn.” Well, just a few hours later the false dawn has arrived via a bombshell FT report citing anonymous Biden administration officials who say that Russia has issued a formal request from China for military support in its invasion of Ukraine. This was followed minutes later with similar Washington Post and New York Times stories in what looks like a US “coordinated leak” effort to send a message and warning to China.

Russia has asked China for military equipment to support its invasion of Ukraine, according to [anonymous] US officials, sparking concern in the White House that Beijing may undermine western efforts to help Ukrainian forces defend their country,” FT writesArchived file image: Xi and Putin attend military ceremony

“US officials told the Financial Times that Russia had requested military equipment and other assistance since the start of the invasion.” And the FT notes that “They declined to give details about what Russia had requested.”

It’s been no secret that Russia’s military has been losing a more than expected amount of tanks, armored, carriers, planes, and helicopters, although precise numbers remains conjectureThe Washington Post also recently observed that regardless of Russia’s overwhelming troop numbers, battlefield setbacks and losses have been “costlier” than the Kremlin likely calculated a mere little more than two weeks in.

Since there are precious few details from the FT’s anon sources, the key question is whether this is another US intelligence attempt to preempt the very scenario being asserted as confirmed before it actually happens (akin to repeating official intel leaks in the run-up to the Feb.24 invasion of Ukraine).

State Department darling Washington Post quickly chiming in with its own version of the anonymously sourced story makes it appear that this is what’s happening:

The FT report hints at this in the following:

“Another person familiar with the situation said the US was preparing to warn its allies, amid some indications that China may be preparing to help Russia. Other US officials have said there were signs that Russia was running out of some kinds of weaponry as the war in Ukraine extends into its third week.”

Perhaps also the preemptive leaking of this information to FT is meant as a warning of sorts to build leverage before White House national security adviser heads to Rome for Monday talks with China’s top foreign policy official Yang Jiechi. The meeting was earlier described as an effort to “maintain open lines of communication” between Washington and Beijing on the Ukraine crisis.

As Bloomberg reports, Sullivan right before departing for the official trip put Beijing on notice concerning any level of sanctions evasion cooperation between China and Moscow. Here’s what he said in a CNN interview Sunday:

…the U.S. has warned China against helping Russia evade sanctions and is watching the extent to which it provides “material support or economic support” to Russia. 

“We will not stand by and allow any country to compensate Russia for its losses from the economic sanctions,” Sullivan said. Large-scale sanctions evasion or providing support that allows Russia to “backfill” will have “consequences,” he said, without elaborating.

The WaPo story was out almost simultaneous to the FT and NY Times versions:

Sullivan also said the US is warning China not to “bail out” Russia by helping Moscow in sanctions-busting efforts. So now it appears there’s a double-warning coming out, with Beijing being put on notice about military equipment and possible plans to assist Russia in Ukraine. 

end

CHINA/COVID MANDATES

China hit hard with the Omicron variant as they lock down 17.5 million citizens in Shenzhen

(zerohedge)

China Locks Down 17.5 Million In Shenzhen As Daily COVID Cases Soar To 2-Year High

SUNDAY, MAR 13, 2022 – 03:30 PM

Everybody from automobile manufacturers to tablet-makers around the globe better watch out: supplies of vital microchips and other high-tech components are about to grind to a halt once again now that China is locking down Shenzhen, known as the country’s Silicon Valley, due to the rising COVID numbers that forcing a fresh round of lockdowns across China.

On Sunday, Shenzhen placed its 17.5MM residents on a lockdown that’s supposed to last until March 20, Bloomberg reports. It has become the latest threat to Chinese stock and bond markets, as the number of nationwide cases has doubled to 3,200. So much for Beijing’s “COVID Zero” policy (which authorities were reportedly on the brink of abandoning).

The new wide-ranging lockdown in Shenzhen is an expansion of earlier restrictions placed on the city’s business district. Although cases are climbing throughout the country, the surge in infections is reportedly linked to the neighboring city of Hong Kong, where about 300K people are currently in isolation or under home quarantine, and where new infections are being recorded at a rate of roughly 10K per day.

China’s latest breakout at a time when the world has largely moved on from the Wu-Flu has mutated into a serious threat to China’s strategy for moving on from the pandemic. While the West is focusing on reopening its economies, Chinese leaders must now sit back in dismay as some of their largest cities are again bombarded by the virus.

So far, authorities have largely resisted tactics such as lockdowns and mass testing and relied mostly on targeted responses, only to see omicron continue to spread. In Shenzhen, they  will launch three rounds of mass testing of residents.

But looking more broadly, Chinese authorities appear to have a much bigger problem on their hands.

In the span of just a couple of weeks, China is scrambling to address what has become its biggest COVID outbreak in two years, reporting soaring cases in a fresh wave that has seen the country tweak its zero-COVID policy by allowing rapid antigen tests for public use.

After the number of newly recorded cases topped 1,000 for two days in a row, new locally transmitted cases surged to more than 3,200 on Sunday, the worst since 2020 driven by a spike in symptomatic infections, according to the National Health Commission and the SCMP.

So far during the outbreak, some 16 provinces have reported new coronavirus infections, as have the four megacities: Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing. But one of the most troubling signs of all: local symptomatic cases have more than tripled to 1,807, from 476 a day earlier, the NHC said. Asymptomatic infections edged up to 1,315, from 1,048 the prior day.

Shenzen wasn’t the only city locked down this weekend: Jilin, a city at the center of the latest outbreak in the Chinese northeast, has been partially locked down since Saturday, while residents of Yanji, an urban area of nearly 700K bordering North Korea, were also confined to their homes on Sunday. Meanwhile, on the east coast, the financial hub of Shanghai and port city of Qingdao in Shandong province are also battling serious outbreaks. Across the country, local authorities are scrambling to build makeshift hospitals, as they hope to make thousands of beds available with each passing day.

end

CHINA RUSSIA

Yuan deposits soar at Russian banks after SWIFT cutoff

(zerohedge)

Yuan Deposits Soar At Russian Banks After SWIFT Cut-Off

SUNDAY, MAR 13, 2022 – 04:15 PM

With Russia now officially cut off from both the USDollar and the euro, Russia’s VTB Bank is seeing a surge in Chinese Yuan deposits, attracted by the bank offering significantly higher interest rates as Putin shifts focus to ‘friendly’ nations.

The state-owned bank is offering a Chinese yuan savings account with a maximum interest rate of 8%, hailing the currency as “one of the most affordable and promising options for investing funds” after the country was hit by Western sanctions.

Putting that in context, the three-month deposit rate is 8% in dollars and 7% in euros, while the six-month rate for ruble deposits is 21%, according to VTB.

Existing customers are reportedly able to open deposits remotely on VTB Online with a minimum amount of 100 yuan ($16). At VTB branches, they can deposit a minimum of 500 yuan. VTB also said that over the past week customers have placed more than 2 trillion rubles ($15 billion) in traditional savings products.

“Some Russian banks can’t get access to other currencies, so yuan is probably the best other alternative,” Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at the Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, told Bloomberg.

“Still, the easiest way for Russia to raise yuan would be to receive yuan via trades. Russian banks’ clients who are exporters could sell to China and receive renminbi as payment.”

As The Telegraph reports, the move comes days after it emerged that a string of Russian lenders including Sberbank and Alfa Bank were planning to use China’s UnionPay system to provide customers’ bank cards after Visa and Mastercard boycotted Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine. 

UnionPay is the dominant payments handler in China but has a small market share outside of the world’s second-largest economy.

end

CHINA/RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Why the Russia Ukraine invasion is bad news for China’s Belt and Road initiative

(EurasiaNet)

Is Russia’s Ukraine Invasion Bad News For China’s Belt And Road Ambitions?

MONDAY, MAR 14, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Via EurasiaNet,

  • China has taken a particularly tepid stance on Russia, with leaders in Beijing looking to hedge their bets. 
  • This war has been very bad for Beijing’s business, tossing a monkey wrench into Xi’s Belt and Road vision.
  • Moscow’s Ukraine misadventure has forged the very geopolitical environment, namely Western strategic unity, that China desperately wanted to avoid

Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China has said all the right things in support of Russia, its professed strategic partner. Chinese officials have faithfully repeated Russian propaganda, refusing to describe the unprovoked attack on Ukraine as a “war” or “invasion,” while echoing the Kremlin claim that NATO’s expansionist desires are the root cause of the conflict.

But Beijing’s actions are telling a different story, underscored by the March 9 Foreign Ministry announcement that the Chinese Red Cross is supplying almost $800,000 in humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. The amount is small, but the gesture is significant in the current context: Chinese leaders are hedging their geopolitical bets.

It was just over a month ago that Russian leader Vladimir Putin met with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, at the opening of the Beijing Winter Olympics. The two issued a joint statement describing bilateral relations as “superior to political and military alliances of the Cold War era,” and cooperation as having “no limits.”

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, however, China’s behavior toward Russia has been circumspect and restrained, its officials proclaiming solidarity with Russia without following up in substance. Before Russian troops attacked, Chinese officials spoke against Western sanctions. But once the United States and European Union started imposing sanctions and disconnecting Russian banks from the SWIFT financial network, leading Chinese financial institutions began quietly adhering to the restrictions, according to the Bloomberg news service.

Another section of the February 4 Putin-Xi statement offers insight into China’s “say one thing, do another” approach toward Russia: The two countries endorsed a “need for consolidation, not division of the international community, a need for cooperation, not confrontation.” It goes on to say the two “oppose the return of international relations to the state of confrontation between major powers.”

Just weeks after publication of these sentiments, Putin decided unilaterally to blow up the post-World War II order, ushering in a new era of geopolitical confrontation that may prove just as fraught as the Cold War. Putin’s impulsive actions are also fueling a Western economic crusade against Russian-style illiberalism.

Xi likely feels embarrassed and used by Putin, and Chinese officials similarly can’t help worrying that, given the West’s restored unity of purpose, China’s global economic interests and geopolitical aspirations stand to suffer. It’s no surprise, then, that Beijing has been a vocal proponent for an end to the war. This conflict is very bad for Beijing’s business, tossing a monkey wrench into Xi’s Belt and Road vision.

The economic disparity in China’s relationship with Russia is another factor behind Beijing’s tepid response to Russia in the Kremlin’s time of extreme financial need. When it comes to commerce, Russia is an afterthought for China, accounting for merely 2 percent of Beijing’s overall trade turnover. To the extent that Beijing increases its trade volume with Russia amid the stifling Western sanctions, it will do so while imposing humbling terms on its supposed friend, purchasing energy, for example, at bargain-basement prices.

China’s strategic partnership with Russia was useful to Beijing only to the extent that it could widen the gap between the U.S. and EU, thus creating space for continuing Chinese economic expansion. This underlying pillar of the partnership has now come crashing down: Putin’s Ukraine adventure has forged the very geopolitical environment, namely Western strategic unity, that China desperately wanted to avoid. Virtually overnight, Russia has gone from asset to major liability for China.

Though unarticulated, the message that Xi is sending Putin with China’s evident reluctance to toss Russia an economic lifeline is: “It’s nothing personal, it’s strictly business.”

END

CHINA

Leukemia is sweeping across China after children received their vaccines

This is not good

(Fu/EpochTimes)

Children In China Diagnosed With Leukemia After Taking Chinese Vaccines

SUNDAY, MAR 13, 2022 – 09:45 PM

Authored by Eva Fu via The Epoch Times,

After receiving her first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, Li Jun’s 4-year-old developed a fever and coughs, which quickly subsided after intravenous therapy at the hospital. But after the second shot, the father could tell something was wrong.Children prepare to receive a vaccine against COVID-19 at a vaccination site in Wuhan, China, on Nov. 18, 2021. (Getty Images)

Swelling appeared around his daughter’s eyes and did not go away. For weeks, the girl complained about pains on her legs, where bruises started to emerge seemingly out of nowhere. In January, a few weeks after the second dose, the 4-year-old was diagnosed with acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

“My baby was perfectly healthy before the vaccine dose,” Li (an alias), from China’s north-central Gansu Province, told The Epoch Times. “I took her for a health check. Everything was normal.”

He is among hundreds of Chinese that belong to a social media group claiming to be suffering from or have a household member suffering from leukemia, developed after taking Chinese vaccines. Eight of them confirmed the situation when reached by The Epoch Times. Names of the interviewees have been withheld to protect their safety.

The leukemia cases span across different age groups from all parts of China. But Li and others particularly pointed to a rise in patients from the younger age group in the last few months, coinciding with the regime’s push to inoculate children between 3 and 11 years old beginning last October.

Li’s daughter had her first injection in mid-November under the request of her kindergarten. She is now undergoing chemotherapy at the Lanzhou No. 2 People’s Hospital where at least 20 children are being treated for similar symptoms, most of them between the age of 3 and 8, according to Li.

“Our doctor from the hospital told us that since November, the children coming to their hematology division to treat leukemia have doubled the previous years’ number and they are having a shortage of beds,” he said.

Li claimed that at least eight children from Suzhou district, where he lives, have died recently from leukemia.

The hospital’s hematology division could not be immediately reached for comment.

National Pressure

Roughly 84.4 million children between the 3-11 age group have been vaccinated as of Nov. 13, according to latest figures from China’s National Health Commission, accounting for more than half of the population in that age bracket.

There had been some resistance from Chinese parents when the campaign to vaccinate children first rolled out. They expressed concern about the lack of data about the effects of Chinese vaccines on young people. The vaccines are supplied by two Chinese drugmakers, Sinopharm and Sinovac, which carry an efficacy rate of 79 percent and 50.4 percent, respectively, based on available data from trials conducted on adults.

There’s limited information about the health effects of these vaccines on children, and the World Health Organization said in late November that it has not approved the two vaccines for emergency use on the underaged.Children prepare to receive a vaccine against COVID-19 at a vaccination site in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, on Nov. 18, 2021. (Getty Images)

But parents who were reluctant to vaccinate their children have faced pressure to comply. Some said they lost work bonuses or were given a talk by their supervisors. In other cases, their children faced punishment varying from losing honors or even getting barred from attending school, as in the case of Wang Long’s 10-year-old son.

“The school told us last year to take him for vaccination on such and such date, or he can’t go to class,” Wang, from eastern China’s Shandong Province, told The Epoch Times.

The boy received his second dose on Dec. 4. A month later, he began experiencing fatigue and low fever. He is now at Shandong University Qilu Hospital, being treated for acute leukemia, diagnosed on Jan. 18.

Censorship

On WeChat, the all-in-one Chinese social media platform, Li has come to know over 500 patients or their family members sharing the same predicament.

The local disease control center, when called by Li and others, had promised an investigation. But these probes invariably ended with the officials declaring the leukemia cases as “coincidental” and thus unrelated to the vaccines.

The authorities said the same in 2013, following the deaths of over a dozen toddlers after Hepatitis B jabs.

But Li and others in a similar situation are far from being convinced.

“I dare say they didn’t do any verification but only went through the motions,” said Li.

Li suspects that authorities are giving him the runaround. The officials told him a panel of experts would start an investigation within his province, but when he called the provincial level health agency, they disavowed any knowledge, saying reports of these cases had never reached them.

Li and others seeking scrutiny of this issue also stand little chance to get their voices heard in the vast Chinese censorship machinery that constantly filters out anything deemed harmful to the communist regime’s interests.

“The information gets blocked the instant we try to post something online. You can’t send it out,” said Li.

When China’s two top political bodies met last week for its most important annual gathering in what Beijing called the “Two Sessions,” Li pitched in the WeChat group the idea of petitioning in the capital to get the authorities’ attention.

That message drew the authorities’ notice immediately.

“The police called us one by one,” said Li. “They said we have made things up and ordered us to withdraw from the chat group.”

The group was soon disbanded. An information sheet containing details of over 200 leukemia patients, filled out by members of the group, is no longer accessible.

According to Li, there are signs indicating that authorities are well aware of this issue. Doctors, when receiving patients presenting with similar symptoms, would first ask them if they had taken the vaccine, he said, citing information he learned from the WeChat group.

“Got it, they would say, and that’s the end of it,” he said of the doctors’ questioning.

Li got the same reaction when calling the hotline for Chinese state broadcaster CCTV in the hopes of getting media exposure.

“As soon as we said the children had taken COVID-19 vaccine, they asked me if she had gotten leukemia. They knew,” said Li. “They said that they got too many calls because of this.”Residents wear masks while lining up to receive COVID-19 vaccines at a vaccination site in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, on Nov. 18, 2021. (Getty Images)

Desperation

The cost for treatment is estimated at around 400,000 to 500,000 yuan ($63,093 to $78,867), more than 20 times the average annual income.

Wang, whose 10-year-old was diagnosed with leukemia, is the sole breadwinner for his family and is already under strain making mortgage repayments. He received about only 1,000 yuan ($157) through the state social assistance program to help pay for his son’s treatment.

“I stayed at the hospital until 4 a.m. the night before,” said Wang, adding that the crushing news has quite “broken” the boy’s mother.

“Had he inherited it from the family, we’d accept it as our lot,” Wang said. “But he got sick because of the vaccine. I just can’t reconcile it.”

Li, meanwhile, has been borrowing money from his relatives for the hospital fees. Some of the money trickles in in bills of 20 and 30 yuan, the equivalent of a few dollars, he said.

Li has heard no response from officials or the media.

His friend who works at the local health commission overseeing the distribution of vaccines has told him to not put much hope in the matter.

“The officials knew that you could get leukemia, but the ‘arm is no match for the thigh,’” the friend told him, referring to a Chinese metaphor. “This is a national issue.”

The Health Commission of Lanzhou City, the Health Commission of Gansu Province, the Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the Lanzhou Disease Prevention and Control Center, the Jiuquan City Disease Prevention and Control Center, Sinopharm, and Sinovac did not answer multiple calls for comment.

The National Health Commission, Sinopharm, and Sinovac did not immediately respond to email queries from The Epoch Times.

Gu Xiaohua contributed to this report

end.

CHINA

Covid has hit China pretty hard in Shenzhen and that has caused weak growth.  There is now talk of a rate cut

(zerohedge)

Covid, Weak Credit Spark Talk Of China Rate Cut

SUNDAY, MAR 13, 2022 – 10:59 PM

By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and analyst

Three things we learned last week:

1. China’s worst Covid outbreak since the early days of the pandemic and disappointing bank lending data add pressure for further policy easing. Domestic infections topped 1,000 a day, prompting a lockdown of a city of 9 million people in the northeast. The outbreak has increased challenges for the government to reach its “about 5.5%” growth target this year. Apple supplier Foxconn is halting operations at its Shenzhen sites, one of which produces iPhones, in response to a government-imposed lockdown on the tech hub city.

On Friday, credit data came in well below expectations, underscoring the growth drag from Covid and the housing slowdown. Long-term household borrowing – a proxy for mortgage loans – fell for the first time ever. The data led some economists, including those at Citigroup, to expect a cut in the medium-term lending facility rate on March 15. If delivered, it would sharpen the policy divergence with most other central banks, as the Fed is expected to raise rates this week.



2. The risk of being delisted from American exchanges triggered a record slump among U.S.-traded Chinese stocks. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index lost 18% last week, surpassing the previous record slump during the financial crisis in 2008. The move came after the SEC identified five Chinese companies that could be kicked off the exchanges, if they fail to open their books to U.S. auditors as required by a new law. While considered a routine procedure to implement the law passed in December 2020, the move nonetheless rattled investors who have already been unnerved by rising geopolitical risks.

So how does an investor hedge the risk? Morgan Stanley advised clients to go long those ADRs eligible for a Hong Kong listing and short those that are unqualified, and with high foreign ownership.

3. Negative sentiment toward Chinese assets finally penetrated the strong yuan. The offshore yuan weakened 0.5% on Friday, the worst day in six weeks. The currency has weakened past its 50-day moving average and is on track toward the 100-DMA. Further spread of the virus – possibly leading to factory closures and port disruptions – could cloud China’s export outlook and add pressure to the yuan selloff.

To be clear, any depreciation is likely to be limited. Friday’s credit data showed that foreign-currency deposits onshore surged to a record, suggesting that the domestic market is still awash with dollars.

h

 end

There goes one of China’s biggies!!:  Tencent shares plunge on a report of possible money laundering violations

(zerohedge)

Tencent Shares Plunge On Report Of Possible Money-Laundering Violations

MONDAY, MAR 14, 2022 – 09:05 AM

Chinese technology giant Tencent Holdings Ltd. has mainly been unscathed in Beijing’s sweeping crackdown on big technology companies that began in late 2020 — until just recently. 

According to Wall Street Journal, the People’s Bank of China is preparing to slap a potential record fine on Tencent’s WeChat Pay mobile network for violating anti-money laundering regulations. 

Financial regulators found that WeChat Pay had lapses in compliance with “know your customer” and “know your business” regulations. They also discovered the mobile payments network had evidence of money laundering. 

An investigation into money laundering would be a new chapter in Beijing’s tech crackdown, a move that has already decimated hundreds of billions of dollars in market cap from ride-hailing and e-commerce to online education companies. Until now, WeChat has been untouched by regulators who have gone after competitors such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Meituan.

Tencent’s shares trading in Hong Kong closed down nearly 10%. 

According to Bloomberg-compiled data, the spread for Tencent’s dollar bond due 2030 widened 22 basis points to 228 basis points, on pace for a record high.

The impending fine for Tencent casts doubts over its ability to expand its fintech division. WeChat Pay is critical to increasing its online transactions business. 

Elsewhere, Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong plunged on their worst day since the global financial crisis, as concerns over Beijing’s relationship with Russia over Ukraine. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index sank 7.2% on Monday, the largest daily drop since November 2008.

The Hang Sang Tech Index plunged 11%. 

Also weighing on China stocks are COVID closures in Shenzhen’s technology hub region, which could be clouding the earnings outlook of companies in that area. 

Marvin Chen, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, “doesn’t see a major catalyst in the near term” to support dip-buying in Chinese tech stocks as they’ve slid for more than year without a defining bottom in sight.  

 “For a material re-rating of China tech, we may need to see a shift in regulatory tone, and we didn’t get that from the recently concluded NPC meeting,” Chen said. 

end

Foxconn halts production of iphones at factories in Shenzhen due to the lockdown

(zerohedge)

Foxconn Halts iPhone Production At Factories In Shenzhen Due To Lockdown

MONDAY, MAR 14, 2022 – 09:45 AM

Beijing’s decision to lock down 17.5 million people in China’s de facto ‘tech capital’ of Shenzhen is already creating serious problems for global supply chains.

Now, it appears that among the earliest casualties of this latest lockdown is the perennially popular iPhone. Because, as Bloomberg reports, Apple supplier Foxconn has been forced to scale back production at two sites used to make iPhones due to the lockdowns.

The firm is shifting production away from two campuses in the area to try and reduce the impact from the lockdown.

The Taiwanese company, also known as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., has its China headquarters in the area and a key manufacturing site in Guanlan. It is suspending operations at the two campuses and has reallocated production to other sites to reduce impact from the disruption, the company said in a statement. Foxconn didn’t specify the length of the suspension. The measures from the Chinese government call for non-essential businesses in Shenzhen to halt until March 20.

But as at least one reporter noted on Twitter in response to the news, the shutdown risks creating a supply shock “on top of a supply shock” and leaving the Fed with little to no room to actually get inflation under control.

Foxconn hasn’t said how long the shutdown will last, but the government in Shenzhen has said that the closure for non-essential businesses will last at least through March 20. Shares of Hon Hai (the Chinese name for the company known Foxconn)for iPhones, closed 1% lower on Monday in Taipei.

Charles Shum, an analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, said the move by Foxconn might not impact Apple’s main supply chain for assembling smartphones.           

Hon Hai’s suspension of iPhone production in Shenzhen due to Covid-19 lockdowns may not affect Apple’s smartphone supply chain. Its main production hub in Zhengzhou hasn’t yet been affected by China’s latest virus resurgence and could help offset lost capacity. Lower seasonal demand may also provide a buffer to catch up on output. Hon Hai assembled 70% of the world’s iPhones in 4Q, IDC data shows.

Presently, Foxconn produces the majority of its iPhones at a plant in the central Chinese city of Zhengzhou, which has earned it the nickname “iPhone City.”

Meanwhile, back in Shenzhen, there are other reasons to worry about supply chain disruptions. The city is also home to one of the world’s largest container ports. Any disruption there could have a serious impact on global supply chain. Meanwhile, during a similar lockdown last summer, the Yantian port in Shenzhen was forced to shut down for nearly a week due to infections among its workers. This caused a massive backlog of goods that took months to finally clear. It also caused a spike in global freight rates.

Elsewhere in China, Volkswagen has suspended manufacturing at three of its plants in the country due to a lockdown in the city of Changchun.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFFAIRS

//EUROPE/USA//UKRAINE//RUSSIA

Latest developments in the Ukraine-Russia war

(zerohedge)

Here Are All The Latest News And Developments From The Ukraine War: March 14

MONDAY, MAR 14, 2022 – 08:30 AM

With newsflow out of Ukraine having become a firehose, with market moving headlines firing every minute, traders can be forgiven if they have just given up following the narrative. To help out, here is a snapshot of all the latest market-moving news out of Ukraine from the last few hours courtesy of Newsquawk:

Discussions/ Negotiations

  • Russian and Ukrainian officials on Sunday gave their most upbeat assessments so far on the progress of talks and suggested there could be positive results within days. The Ukrainian negotiator reiterated they will not concede in principle on any positions and that Russia now understands this, while he added that Russia is already beginning to talk constructively. Furthermore, the Russian delegate said talks with Ukraine may soon produce draft agreements and US Deputy Secretary of State Sherman commented that Russia showed signs of willingness to engage in substantive negotiations about ending the conflict.
  • Ukraine Presidential adviser says the next round of discussions with Russia will be on peace, ceasefire, immediate withdrawal of troops and security guarantees. Note, talks began around 08:30GMT/04:30EDT
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said some small towns in Ukraine do not exist anymore due to the war and that negotiations must start with a ceasefire, while he added that the west is not involved enough in peace negotiations and he doesn’t see a common consensus to accept Ukraine in NATO. Furthermore, Zelensky called for software giants to stop supporting their products in Russia.
  • Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba said on Saturday that they are ready to negotiate but won’t surrender and that more needs to be done to hit the Russian economy, while he added that they have to remain open to diplomacy and that they are talking, but Russia continues to put forward demands that are unacceptable to Ukraine.

Energy/Economic Updates

  • Russian Foreign Ministry official said the EU faces soaring energy prices in the wake of sanctions imposed against Moscow and the situation on global energy markets will lead to the EU paying at least three times more for oil, gas and electricity, while the official added Russia is prepared for a tough confrontation with the EU in the energy sector if necessary, according to Interfax.
  • Ukraine’s atomic energy ministry said power was restored at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant and that cooling systems for spent nuclear assemblies at the plant will operate normally without using backup power.
  • EU ambassadors met in Brussels on Sunday to discuss a proposed list of individuals being targeted in the latest round of sanctions with Roman Abramovich one of the 15 individuals being considered, according to FT.
  • Australia announced new sanctions affecting 33 Russian oligarchs and family members.
  • Russian Finance Minister Siluanov said Russia will fulfil its state debt obligations and pay in RUB until state reserves are unfrozen. Siluanov said sanctions have frozen around USD 300bln in Russian gold and forex reserves, while he added that western countries are pressuring China to limit Russian access to its Yuan reserves, according to Reuters and Ria. Furthermore, Reuters noted that Russia is due to pay USD 117mln on two dollar-denominated bonds on Wednesday and is signalling it may default or pay it in RUB.
  • Russia’s central bank decided to not resume trading of the stock market on the Moscow Exchange between March 14th-18th.
  • UK Chancellor Sunak said he is urging firms to think carefully about investments in Russia and how they may aid President Putin’s regime, while Sunak added that he is clear that there is no case for new investment in Russia.
  • India is considering a Russian offer to sell oil and other commodities at discount amid sanctions, according to officials.

Defense/Military

  • US officials said Russia requested military equipment from China to support its invasion of Ukraine, which the White House fears is a sign of increasingly close ties between Beijing and Moscow. However, the Chinese Embassy in the US said that the high priority now is to prevent the tense situation from escalating or getting out of control and a spokesperson said they “never heard of that” when asked about the report of Russian request for military assistance.
  • Subsequently, Chinese Foreign Minister is to arrive in Moscow on March 15th, according to Russian media citing Iranian sources via Sky News Arabia.
  • US President Biden spoke with French President Macron on Ukraine in which they underscored their commitment to hold Russia accountable for its actions and support the government and people of Ukraine, according to the White House
  • Ukraine’s International Peacekeeping and Security Centre in Yavoriv, near the Polish border was bombed and the Russian Defence Ministry said it attacked the training facility in Yavoriv in western Ukraine, which was being used to store military equipment that had been delivered from foreign nations, according to Interfax and Ria. Furthermore, Ukrainian Defence Minister Reznikov said that foreign military instructors worked at the facility, but it was not clear if any were present at the time of the strike. NATO thereafter confirmed that no personnel were hit by the attack.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken condemned Russia’s attack on the International Centre of Peacekeeping and Security in Yavoriv.
  • US National Security Adviser Sullivan said Russian attacks near the Polish border show President Putin is expanding targets and reflects frustration about a lack of progress, while US and allies will continue to escalate pressure on President Putin. Sullivan also said the US is consulting with allies and communicating directly with Russia to warn against the use of chemical weapons and said if Russia takes a shot at NATO territory, it would trigger Article 5 and would bring the full force of NATO in response. Furthermore,
  • Sullivan has communicated to Beijing that US will not allow any country to compensate Russia for losses from sanctions and is to meet with Chinese top diplomat Yang Jie in Rome on Monday.
  • UK Cabinet Minister Gove said the attack on the military centre is a significant escalation, while he added that he wants to explore the option that would allow the use of homes and property of sanctioned individuals for humanitarian and other purposes.
  • UK PM Johnson spoke to Ukrainian President Zelensky in which he outlined support the UK continues to deliver to Ukraine and said that President Putin’s actions were testing not just Ukraine but all of humanity, while he added the UK would continue to pursue more options for bolstering Ukraine’s self-defence.
  • UK Ministry of Defense said Russian naval forces established a distant blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea, isolating Ukraine from international maritime trade, adds Russian naval forces are also continuing missile strikes against targets throughout Ukraine
  • Ukraine said its troops were launching counterattacks against Russian soldiers in Ukraine’s Mykolaiv region and the eastern Kharkiv region.
  • Ukraine NSDC Secretary Danilov said Russia is developing a special operation to disguise Belarusian soldiers in Russian uniform and send them to Ukraine, according to NEXTA.
  • Air raid alerts were reported in at least 19 out of 24 Ukrainian regions, according to Kyiv Independent.

Other

  • Russian prosecutors reportedly warned companies they may seize assets and trademarks of companies that pull back from Russia and may arrest company leaders that criticise the government, according to WSJ. However, the Russian Embassy in the US refuted media claims that western companies are being threatened, according to Sputnik.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister will travel to Russia on Tuesday to meet with Foreign Minister Lavrov, according to a spokesperson cited by journalist Aslani; separately, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson says the US needs to make a decision before a nuclear deal is possible.
  • Iranian Top Security Official says Iran will remain in nuclear discussions until Tehran’s “legal and logical” demands are met and a strong deal is reached.
  • Turkey and Greece agreed on talks to improve ties amid the Ukraine conflict.

End

GERMANY/STEEL

New realities coming into view

Inbox

Robert HryniakSun, Mar 13, 8:42 PM (11 hours ago)
to



The Brave New World is upon us and those in the West who didn’t understand it will feel it soon or, as this hapless steel company from Germany found out–you cannot cheat nature and laws of physics. You simply can not, no matter how hard you try.

There are 3 reasons why economies and companies move forward; cost reduction, sales increase or profit increase. One of these elements needs to exist for success.

Understanding this makes one understand the need to diversify unit cost to the lowest denominator, whether is by physical unit cost or transport of same.  No matter how hard you try to avoid this reality, growth starts and finishes with this -most of Europe’s economy is not economically viable, because it is unsustainable in general.  

Higher energy prices like we see now only hasten its’ demise as energy prices make industrial capacity uneconomical in a global market. Where any vaccine is eagerly filled by a producer somewhere in the globe.

Today, Russia  does not depend on EU for its’ economic performance and this is lost with the sanctions being imposed which will cripple Europe. Hungary was astute to sign a low cost supply of energy until 2036 making it a low cost producer. What will Europe do to maintain its’ industries and standard of living? This is a complete mystery and not even thought about with the delusional brunch.

Sadly, Europe will now change and face new challenges, it is ill equipped for. With the prospect of expanding war capital will come to North America, if for only safety. We can only hope peace comes sooner that later and that common sense to realties prevails over delusions. 

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/steelmaker-lech-stahlwerke-halts-production-as-power-prices-soar

Cheers

Robert

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

We now have 2.5 milllion souls seeking refuge from Russia’s invasion

(zerohedge)

2.5 Million Now Seeking Refuge From Russia’s Invasion

SATURDAY, MAR 12, 2022 – 12:00 PM

As of March 11, 12 PM CET, over 2.5 million people living in Ukraine have left the country to seek shelter from Russian aggression, either permanently or temporarily.

As Statista’s Florian Zandt shows in the chart below, based on data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), most of the people fleeing have crossed over at the Polish border.

Infographic: 2.5 Million Seeking Refuge from Russia's Invasion | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Roughly 1.5 million refugees have reached Ukraine’s western neighbor via foot, bus, car or train. According to government statements, more than 50,000 people looking for safety from the Russia-Ukraine conflict arrive in Poland every day. While Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Moldova have carried the brunt of the refugee wave during the first week, roughly 283,000 people have also fled to European countries not directly bordering Ukraine so far. These movements will likely intensify over the next couple of days as fighting continues. UNHCR estimates released yesterday suggest that 12 million people in Ukraine and four million refugees from the country will need relief and protection over the coming months. To combat this humanitarian crisis, the UN and its humanitarian partners issued a flash appeal for $1.7 billion to allow the distribution of needed supplies.

Although the rallying efforts of the European community are generally seen as commendable, the treatment of non-white refugees has come under increased scrutiny since February 24. On March 1, for example, Nigeria’s government condemned the handling of Nigerian and other African refugees by Ukrainian border officials who allegedly prioritized the evacuation of white Ukrainians.

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/WEST

Putin warns attempts to prevent Russian exports of its three major exports:

1.Oil 

2 Gas

3.Fertilizers

will have serious consequences.  Will this mean the nuclear option

(Roberts/EpochTimes)

Putin Warns Attempts To Prevent Russian Exports Of Fertilizers, Oil, Gas Will Have ‘Serious Consequences’

SUNDAY, MAR 13, 2022 – 02:15 PM

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that any attempts to prevent exports of fertilizers, oil, gas, and metals will have “serious consequences on this segment of the world market and for food in general.”Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the Russian government in Moscow on March 10, 2022. (Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)

Putin made the comments at a meeting with government members this week, according to the Russian state-run news agency TASS.

The president also doubled down on his support for comments made by Russia’s Industry and Trade Minister, Denis Manturov, who previously said that Russia would redirect exports to other countries that were not hostile to Russia if problems with “logistics” were to continue after claiming that European carriers are not loading Russian products on their ships.

Unfriendly countries to Russia include the United States, Canada, and member states of the European Union, among others.

“This obstruction of supplies concerns energy carriers, oil. Of course, it concerns gas, including liquefied gas. This also concerns fertilizers and some other goods, metals, and so on, chemical products in the broad sense of the word. As for fertilizers, then, of course, if this continues further, it will have serious consequences for this segment of the world market and for food in general,” Putin said, according to TASS.

Putin added that any attempts to interfere with the supply of Russian products will also negatively impact the global economy.

“It will also affect macroeconomic indicators because inflation is inevitable in this case,” Putin said.

On Thursday Russian Industry Minister Denis Manturov announced that Russia has temporarily banned fertilizer exports to countries it deems hostile to Moscow, according to Firstsquawk.

The Epoch Times has been unable to verify if Russia has banned fertilizer exports and has contacted the Minister of Trade and Industry for comment.

Russia’s ministry previously recommended that the country’s fertilizer producers halt exports, citing uncertainty as to whether these exports would reach foreign markets.

“Taking into account the current situation with the work of foreign logistics operators and the risks associated with it, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia was forced to recommend to Russian manufacturers to temporarily suspend the shipment of Russian fertilizers for export until the carriers resume rhythmic work and provide guarantees for the fulfillment of export deliveries of Russian fertilizers in full,” the ministry said in a statement.

Russia produces 50 million tons of fertilizers every year, accounting for 13 percent of the world’s total, according to Reuters.An agricultural worker drives a tractor spreading fertilizers to a field of winter wheat near the village of Husachivka in the Kyiv region, Ukraine, on April 17, 2020.(Valentyn /Reuters/Ogirenko)GreenCoast Hydroponics, a warehouse store popular with cannabis growers, reported inflated prices for fertilizer and other growing equipment, in Sun Valley, Calif., on Feb. 23, 2022. (Jill McLaughlin/The Epoch Times)

The country is also a major producer of potash, phosphate, and nitrogen-containing fertilizers which serve as major crop and soil nutrients.

Amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the cost of fertilizer has already risen significantly across the globe and is expected to further impact the cost of goods and push food prices higher.

However, even before the invasion, fertilizer prices had risen drastically in part due to the rising gas costs which are needed to ship fertilizers across countries and continents.

On top of this, a reduced amount of natural gas, which is a key ingredient in making nitrogen-based fertilizers, forced some producers to reduce production and in some worse cases, completely halt it.

Peter Zeihan, a geopolitical analyst and author, told FOX Business that the world was on the verge of “the worst fertilizer situation in modern history in terms of supply” before the invasion of Ukraine.

All three source materials that go into fertilizer (phosphate, nitrogen, potash) are subject to abject shortage. And even if the war were to stop tomorrow, it’s already too late. It’s too late for the planting season for the Northern Hemisphere this year,” Zeihan said, adding that the crisis could potentially hit Brazil, Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia the hardest.

These nations, he said, would likely not see enough yields that are “necessary to support the global population.”

“And as food prices rise, as they’ve been for the last two weeks—and pretty sharply—farmers will do what farmers do. They will plant what they think that they can grow for the greatest bang for their buck,” Zeihan said. “So, I can see (the United States) increasing our production and our exports by a small amount. But the scale of what we’re talking about here is insufficient food for hundreds of millions of people.”

Meanwhile, Ryan Jacobsen, Chief Executive Officer at Fresno County Farm Bureau, has warned that there’s a strong possibility that there is simply “not going to be enough on the worldwide market.”

“Let alone with the prices, you just won’t be able to find it,” Jacobsen told ABC30. “We are early in the season,” Jacobsen added. “There is still a lot of growing to come, so we are expecting this to compound as we go farther on.”

The fertilizer ban comes after the West levied heavy sanctions on Russia in recent weeks in response to what Putin calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine.

end

This is going to cause a huge inflationary spiral for these products

(zerohedge)

Russia May Ban Wheat, Rye, Barley And Corn Exports Until June 30

MONDAY, MAR 14, 2022 – 11:00 AM

Just in case the coming global famine, which One River CIO Eric Peters likened to the original Holodomor (which incidentally took place in Ukraine under Stalin), isn’t bad enough, moments ago Russia warned that it could be even worse.

According to Interfax, Russia’s Agriculture Ministry said that the country could ban wheat, rye, barley and corn exports from March 15 to June 30.

“The Agriculture Ministry, together with the Industry and Trade Ministry, has drafted a government resolution that provides for a temporary ban on the export of basic grain crops from Russia from March 15 to June 30 of the current year inclusive,” the ministry’s press office told Interfax.

The exact wording is to impose from March 15 to June 30, 2022 inclusive a temporary ban on the export of wheat and meslin, rye, barley and corn from the Russian Federation, it said.

While there is still hope that a worst case scenario can be averted, overnight we reported that according to Douglas Karr, founder of the businesses blog Martech Zone, a food shortage is well on its way to the US. Karr said he spoke with numerous folks in the food industry who said farmers in the South and Midwest are having trouble procuring fertilizer to grow crops ahead of planting season. He said farmers in the “Midwest are switching,” likely referring to crops that need fewer nutrients because they “can’t get nitrogen nor fertilizer.”

Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, the global food system was strained. Snarled supply chains and adverse weather conditions in top growing regions of the world resulted in low crop yields and rising prices. The Ukraine supply shock will only amplify the crisis as the UN warned global food prices could jump 8%-20% from here (prices are already at record highs). 

Needless to say, the implications should Russia – which suplies much of the emerging market with this core staple – ban wheat exports …

… are dire, and would lead to a far worse global food shortage – and crisis – than what was observed during the 2011 Arab Spring that unleashed a cascade of revolutions across the northern Africa and middle eastern regions.

end

UN Chief In ‘Bone-Chilling’ Statement: Nuclear War Back “Within Realm Of Possibility” Over Ukraine

MONDAY, MAR 14, 2022 – 02:30 PM

Days after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres addressed an emergency session of the UN General Assembly. He said at the time that the thought of a nuclear is “simply inconceivable” – but warned world powers they must do everything possible in terms of diplomacy from reaching a nuclear showdown scenario. 

But now more than two weeks into the war, and with ratcheted warnings flying between NATO/Western capitals and Moscow, the UN chief raised his threat assessment in a new statement Monday, warning the world that it now stands at a new dangerous precipice. 

“United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Monday sounded the alarm over Russia raising the alert level for its nuclear forces, describing it a ‘bone-chilling development’ and added that the prospect of nuclear conflict was back within realm of possibility,” according to Reuters.Picture Alliance/Europa Newswire

He said in the statement:

“The prospect of nuclear conflict, once unthinkable, is now back within the realm of possibility.”

It seems he was both responding to Russia’s prior widely-reported raising of its nuclear posture, which came closer to the start of the invasion, and the fact that Moscow and Washington are now openly trading threats and warnings that includes mention of “World War 3” scenarios.

Guterres further announced in the Monday statement that the United Nations is readying plans to allocate an additional $40 million in humanitarian assistance for Ukraine, which will come from its Central Emergency Response fund.

Regarding the nuclear warning it must be recalled that it was only in January that the independent consortium of scientists that produce the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the “doomsday clock” another 20 seconds closer to midnight:

Two years after moving the metaphorical minute hand of its Doomsday Clock to within two minutes of midnight — a figurative two-minute warning for all humanity — the science and security board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists revealed Thursday that it has moved that minute hand another 20 seconds closer to the midnight hour.

It remains now at “100 seconds to midnight” – and as NPR previously pointed out in late January, significantly prior to start of Russia’s Feb.24 invasion of Ukraine: “Never since the clock’s 1947 Cold War debut has it come so close to the putative doomsday annihilation represented by the 12 a.m. hour.”

Currently, a handful of notable Russia hawks in US Congress are urging a US-backed no-fly zone in Ukraine, which is something President Zelensky has been formally requesting. This would of course bring US jets and Russian fighters into direct conflict, quickly spiraling into a broader NATO-Russia world war.

It was merely last week that President Joe Biden warned of the possibility of “World War 3” over Ukraine, vowing that he’d keep US forces out of the war in order to prevent that dire scenario…

“We’re going to continue to stand together with our allies in Europe and send an unmistakable message. We will defend every single inch of NATO territory with the full might of the united and galvanized NATO,” Biden said after detailing some of the fresh anti-Russia sanctions.

“We will not fight a war against Russia in Ukraine. Direct conflict between NATO and Russia is World War III, something we must strive to prevent,” he stressed. Ukraine’s President Zelensky is meanwhile set to address US Congress on Wednesday, where it’s expected he’ll urge precisely greater direct Washington involvement in repelling the Russian invasion. 

This is what Zelensky’s foreign minister had to say on Monday…

/Ukraine

A terrific film y Oliver Stone on the history of Ukraine

(Oliver Stone)

Ukraine on Fire’ — Oliver Stone — Kneecapped on Youtube — Now Up on Rumble — 300,000+ Views and Counting! — ‘WOW!’ | Prophecy | Before It’s News

Inbox

Robert HryniakFri, Mar 11, 8:07 PM (13 hours ago)
to

https://beforeitsnews.com/prophecy/2022/03/ukraine-on-fire-oliver-stone-kneecapped-on-youtube-now-up-on-rumble-300000-views-and-counting-wow-2528713.html

end

From MOD

Inbox

Robert Hryniak2:48 PM (1 hour ago)
to

Written from a slant no doubt, but descriptive of realities on the ground echoed by people there in various cities. 

ps://t.me/mod_russia_en/174

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Meeting of the Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine

▪️ Unfortunately, the humanitarian situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate rapidly, and in some cities it has become critical.

▪️ Mariupol has been in an extremely difficult situation for a long time. Today, as a result of effective actions, the formations of the Donetsk People’s Republic, with the support of units of the Russian Armed Forces, have surgically destroyed almost all firing points equipped by neo-Nazis in the suburban areas of Mariupol. Maneuvering actions of special purpose units eliminated the main forces of neo-Nazis in positions in residential areas around the perimeter of the city.

The successful operation to unblock the city made it possible today from 15 o’clock to open humanitarian corridors for civilians to exit and to begin mass evacuation of the population that had been held hostage by neo-Nazis for a long time.

Car convoys with humanitarian cargo were promptly formed and immediately dispatched. The first convoy has already arrived in Mariupol and delivered 450 tons of medicines, basic necessities and food, including baby food.

In addition, four columns with a total of 200 buses have been formed to evacuate the needy and injured residents of Mariupol, of which 50 have already arrived in Mariupol, the rest are on the move.

All the injured and willing residents of Mariupol will be taken to temporary accommodation facilities, where all conditions for comfortable living are created for them. Arriving citizens will be provided with everything necessary, issues of placement of children in preschool institutions, schoolchildren and students in educational institutions will be promptly resolved. Individual work with the participation of medical workers and employees of the psychological service will be carried out with each Mariupol citizen who has experienced the horrors and humiliations of neo-Nazis.

▪️ Despite the endless streams of lies and misinformation, the Russian Federation continues to fully fulfill its humanitarian obligations.

▪️ Every day, for the eleventh day in a row, from 10 o’clock in the morning, the Russian side opens humanitarian corridors in the Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and Kharkov directions. The exit of civilians and foreign citizens through them is provided both to the Russian Federation and in the western direction through the territories controlled by official Kiev.

The imposed ceasefire by the Russian Armed Forces is strictly observed.
Of the ten routes we have proposed, the Ukrainian authorities have agreed on only three for today, but at the same time, again cynically towards their own people – there is not a single humanitarian corridor to the Russian Federation.

▪️ Once again extending a helping hand to the fraternal Ukrainian people, Russia agreed to the eleven additional humanitarian corridors proposed by Kiev in the Kiev, Zaporozhye, Mariupol, Lugansk and Donetsk directions.
At the same time, the requests from the Ukrainian side to deliver allegedly humanitarian goods to Melitopol and Kherson look absurd. Once again, we inform you that these cities are under our full control, their population continues to live a peaceful life and is provided with everything necessary by the Russian Federation. There are no problems in providing assistance to residents of these settlements.

▪️ By means of objective control, including the use of unmanned aerial vehicles, we constantly record all changes in the situation on humanitarian routes.

It has again been confirmed that Ukrainian units and neo-Nazi battalions continue to use the daily imposed ceasefire only to regroup in more favourable positions, restore combat effectiveness and replenish materiel, while shielding themselves behind a “human shield” of civilians.

Pursuing exclusively humane goals, Russian servicemen not only do not hinder, but also urge Ukrainians to take advantage of convenient ways for them to get to safe places, including those routes that pass through the territories controlled by Kiev.

▪️ At the same time, the flow of refugees across the western border of Ukraine continues to grow. People under pressure from the Kiev authorities are forced to leave for Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania. But no one is waiting for them either at the border or inside the European states. Ukrainian border guards behave cynically towards their people, just as they do on ordinary days, despite the humanitarian emergency situation around the refugees. The capacity of border crossings is not provided. Thousands of cars have accumulated in traffic jams for tens of kilometers, pandemonium and crush at pedestrian crossings. Some Ukrainians stand in line for two or three days, while at the checkpoints there are no places of rest, food and medical care are not organized. Refugees are forced to actually be in the wind and cold, and many of them are with young children. This once again shows how the Kiev authorities do not care about their citizens, who have not been able to organize the evacuation in a high-quality way. In addition, all these facts say that no one needs Ukrainian refugees in Europe either.

▪️ Western countries, the United Nations, the OSCE, the International Committee of the Red Cross, as well as a number of other international organizations, in the catastrophic humanitarian situation that has developed for Ukraine, still remain on the sidelines and do not give a principled assessment of outright neo-Nazism, which has already befuddled the Kiev authorities and reigns in the territories controlled by Ukrainian nationalists.

In Zaporozhye, the militants, having seized the financial institutions of the city, carry out checks of depositors’ bank accounts. Citizens with significant financial savings are abducted, forcibly detained and, threatening with murder, money is taken away from them, allegedly for the needs of territorial defence detachments. Civilians trying to escape the arbitrariness and violence of the nationalists make independent attempts to leave the city. At checkpoints controlled by radicals, people are detained, beaten, humiliated or extorted the last of their goods for an unhindered exit from the city.

▪️ In large cities such as Kharkov, Odessa and Nikolaev, members of nationalist formations, under threat of physical violence against family members of men aged 18 to 60, are forcibly recruiting them into territorial defence battalions. Residents are intimidated, but forced to agree.
Let me remind you that historically, a significant part of the population of Ukraine has always advocated good relations with Russia. According to statistics, this is more than 15 million people who still maintain strong ties with the Russian Federation, where their relatives and friends live. First of all, these are Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Chernigov, Kharkov, Kherson, Nikolaev, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy, Kirovograd, Cherkasy, Kiev and Zhytomyr regions.

▪️ Since the nationalists came to power in 2014, a full-fledged, large-scale, prepared and managed by Western specialists campaign for mass Ukrainization of the population was conducted in Ukraine, aimed primarily against Russian-speaking citizens of the country. Kiev’s discriminatory policy forced native speakers of the Russian language and culture to hide their beliefs under threat of criminal prosecution, demonstrating imaginary loyalty to the current government. Ukrainization, deployed at the state level, has done its job. The ukranationalist authorities have deprived millions of citizens of their country of the opportunity to develop their native language and culture and to bring up their children in a Russian cultural environment.

▪️And at present, neo-Nazis continue their activities aimed at the complete or partial destruction of the Russian-speaking population, in fact, at its genocide.

Despite eight years of brainwashing, widespread insults and psychological pressure, millions of Ukrainian citizens have maintained their commitment to Russian culture under conditions of narrowly directed ideological influence.

▪️In the context of a humanitarian crisis, most of the population held by nationalists in the cities of Ukraine and used by them as a “human shield” is looking for protection in Russia, and not in the West, which is confirmed by millions of appeals from citizens for help in evacuation to the Russian side.

▪️At the same time, the Kiev authorities demonstrate complete indifference to these people and willingness to sacrifice them for the sake of nationalist interests, forcing them to stay in their homes and allowing evacuation only to the western regions of Ukraine or neighboring European countries, but not to Russia.

▪️Daily monitoring of the received appeals shows that 12,247 people have expressed a desire to escape from the horrors and arbitrariness staged by the nationalists – namely to Russia and Belarus, and not to the West – just over the past day, and there are already 2,665,822 of them in our database with specific surnames and addresses from almost 2,000 settlements of Ukraine.

That’s a huge number. Behind each figure is a specific person, his pain, suffering, horror, and often a crippled psyche and undermined health. But on the other hand, it is also the hope of liberation from shocks, the desire for freedom of speech, thought, conscience and religion, the opportunity to speak freely in Russian, for many their native language, without looking back at the followers of Nazism, ready to shoot in the back.

▪️I quote one of the many appeals received today: “My father is in Kirovograd. I beg you, I pray, to evacuate Kirovograd residents accompanied by Russian servicemen, since when evacuating citizens on their own, they may die from the executions of looters or the authorities of Ukraine. When the evacuation begins, please let me know by phone…”. End quote.

The steps of the Kiev authorities, which have legitimized, in violation of all conceivable canons of humanitarian law, the possibility of uncontrolled and unpunished use of weapons by nationalists, provoking looting, banditry and violence against their people, civilians who are not capable of adequately countering such inhumane acts, also look like outright mockery of their citizens. Any attempts to resist the militants lead to irreparable consequences, up to the murderer of dissenters.

A monstrous act of cruelty against the civilian population was committed by Ukrainian nationalists in Donetsk today. As a result of a missile strike on a densely populated area in the city center, 20 civilians were killed, 28 people were injured, one of them a child. This is another evidence of the inhumane attitude of the criminal Ukrainian authorities towards the civilian population.

▪️ Despite all this, with difficulty, but with the observance of all necessary security measures, we manage to save thousands of lives of civilians and foreign citizens every day.

▪️ Despite this, 8,575 people, including 1,298 children, were evacuated from the dangerous zones of various regions of Ukraine, as well as the Lugansk and Donetsk people’s republics, during the day without the participation of the Ukrainian side, 248,993 people have been evacuated since the beginning of the special military operation, 54,481 of them children. The state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 27,923 personal vehicles including 2,415 per day.

In addition, over the past two days, thanks to the unprecedented security measures taken by the Russian Armed Forces, it was possible to provide humanitarian corridors and evacuate 21,345 citizens traveling by buses and personal cars from various localities in Zhytomyr, Lugansk and Donetsk directions.

▪️ 6,972 citizens from 22 foreign countries, as well as the crews of more than 50 foreign vessels blocked in the seaports of Ukraine, continue to be held hostage by the militants of the territorial defence battalions.

The fate of these foreign citizens has been the subject of round-the-clock cooperation with representatives of the relevant diplomatic agencies. At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities practically do not react in any way to the appeals of foreign states for the rescue of compatriots in distress.

▪️ The Russian side still keeps a sufficient number of vehicles ready at the checkpoints, including comfortable buses for transporting refugees to selected destinations, as well as to temporary accommodation points, where all citizens arriving on the territory of Russia are provided with three hot meals a day and medical assistance is provided around the clock.
More than 9,500 temporary accommodation centres continue to operate in the regions of the Russian Federation.

Federal executive authorities together with the subjects of Russia, various public organizations, patriotic movements have prepared more than 18,000 of humanitarian aid.

At the same time, the Russian side is creating the necessary conditions for a peaceful and safe life in all the liberated territories, ensuring unimpeded access of the population to any humanitarian aid.

▪️ 2,165 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to the settlements of Kiev, Sumy, Chernigov, Zaporozhye, Kharkov, Kherson regions, as well as Lugansk and Donetsk people’s republics during the 306 humanitarian actions, including 23 actions carried out over the past day, 110 tons of basic necessities and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

To date, 16 humanitarian actions have been planned and are currently being carried out in Chernigov, Kharkov and Kherson regions, in Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics, during which 150 tons of basic necessities, medicine and food will be distributed.

END

Russian Ministry of defense

Inbox

Robert Hryniak10:50 AM (5 hours ago)
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Early Morning Briefing

▪️Units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, continuing the offensive, reached the border of Vodyanoe, Sladkoe, Stepnoe, Taramchuk and Slavnoye. The advance per day was 11 kilometers.

▪️The grouping of troops of the Lugansk People’s Republic, having previously blocked Severodonetsk from the eastern and southern directions, is fighting against nationalists on the northeastern outskirts of the city.

▪️💥During the night of March 14, 4 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, including иBayraktar TB-2, were shot down by aviation and air defence of the Russian Aerospace Forces.

✈️💥Operational-tactical, army and unmanned aviation hit 46 military infrastructure assets of Ukraine, including: 2 command posts, 1 Buk-M1 anti-aircraft missile system, 1 guidance and target designation radar station, 2 MLRS, 2 electronic warfare stations, 2 ammunition and fuel depots, 31 areas of military equipment concentration.

💥In total, during the operation, 3,920 objects of the military infrastructure of Ukraine were disabled.

💥Destroyed: 143 unmanned aerial vehicles, 1,267 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 124 multiple launch rocket systems, 457 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1,028 units of special military vehicles.


❗Statement by Russian Defence Ministry

▪️ On March 14, at about 11.30 a.m. Moscow time, Tochka-U tactical missile was fired at a residential block of Donetsk city from the territory controlled by the Kiev nationalist regime.

▪️ The shelling of the city was carried out from the north-western direction, from the area of Krasnoarmeysk settlement, which is controlled by Ukrainian nationalist units.

▪️ As a result of the explosion of a cluster warhead in the center of Donetsk, 20 civilians were killed. Another 28 people, including children, were seriously injured and taken to medical institutions.

▪️ The use of such weapons on a town with no armed forces firing positions, i.e. deliberately targeting civilians, is a war crime.

▪️ The armament of Tochka-U missile’ warhead with cluster ammunition proves that the purpose of the nationalists’ strike on the city was to kill as many civilians as possible.

❗️I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the decision to use this type of missile weapons is made, at least, by the command of the Ukrainian grouping of troops, after approval by the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kiev.

▪️ All this once again confirms the Nazi nature of the ruling regime in Ukraine today, whio has not regard for Russian speaking Ukrainians 

This is more than likely to solidify a resolve to cleanse the entire territory of Ukraine by the Russians. As i doubt any real ceasefire can exist. 

Meanwhile, estimates are that this season’s crop yields will be lessened by 50% which will translate into higher crop prices, especially wheat and corn. And current shipments of grains from last year are at a standstill for at least another 3 weeks. 

END

Russia’s Stock Market Remains Closed for 3rd Week, Debt Deadline Looms

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Robert Hryniak3:18 PM (51 minutes ago)
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FYI
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/russia-stock-market-closed-bonds-default-sovereign-debt-deadline-2022-3

Russia Reportedly Legalizes Piracy of Games, Movies, and More – IGN

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Robert Hryniak4:02 PM (9 minutes ago)
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Once they do this, one might imagine many things not made in Russia will; suddenly be possible and that will include parts for the planes they have.
Once one started down this road it is very difficult to turn back.

https://www.ign.com/articles/russia-reportedly-legalises-piracy-of-games-movies-and-more

Akzo Nobel expects operations in Russia to collapse within weeks

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Robert Hryniak4:11 PM (2 minutes ago)
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The Chinese are eyeing this one.

https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/76632/

SAUDI ARABIA/IRAN

I guess that ends all relationship between the Sunnis and the Sh’ites after S.Arabia executes 41 shiites Muslims

(zerohedge)

Iran Suspends Talks With Saudi Arabia After Execution Of 41 Shi’ite Muslims

MONDAY, MAR 14, 2022 – 10:25 AM

Just when you thought there couldn’t be more fantastic news coming down the pipe from a geopolitical perspective – with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s buzzing of Taiwan with fighter jets – now it looks like talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia have also broken down.

Iran has called off the talks “without giving a reason”, before the fifth round of talks were supposed to take place this week, according to Reuters. The break down in talks comes as Iranian nuclear deal talks have also stalled.

Tehran had “condemned mass executions in Saudi Arabia that activists said included 41 Shi’ite Muslims” leading up to the breakdown in talks, Reuters wrote. 

“Iran has unilaterally suspended talks with Saudi Arabia,” Nor News, a website affiliated to Iran’s top security body, said this week. Iran set no make-up date for the talks and the Saudis did not respond to a request for comment by Reuters. 

The talks began last year to try and quell tensions between the Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia and Shi’ite Iran.

Iranian protesters stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran in 2016, causing Riyadh to “sever ties” with Iran. 

This past Saturday, Saudi Arabia said it executed 81 men, of which 41 were claimed to be Shi’ite Muslims from an area in eastern Qatif that is known for religious conflict. Iran said the executions were in “violation of basic human rights principles and international law”. 

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE ISSUES/

COVID/NEW STRAIN

This is very worrisome…the “Deltacron:

Growing Number Of Countries Identify Cases Of ‘Deltacron’ Variant

MONDAY, MAR 14, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A growing number of cases of a hybrid COVID-19 variant dubbed “Deltacron” are being identified, including several cases in the United States.Genomic sequencing is performed in France in this file photograph. (Christophe Archambault/AFP via Getty Images)

Researchers with Helix, a California-based genomic company, found two cases of COVID-19 infection caused by a hybrid of the Delta and Omicron variants, while researchers in France determined 18 people were infected by the hybrid.

Cases have also been detected in the Netherlands and Denmark, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

Delta was the dominant version of COVID-19, in many countries in 2021 but was displaced in most of them by Omicron by the end of the year.

Experts so far haven’t seen any difference in the characteristics of patients who are infected with the hybrid and haven’t seen any signs that the Deltacron causes more severe cases of COVID-19, Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s COVID-19 technical lead, told reporters in a recent briefing.

“Unfortunately, we do expect to see recombinants, because this is what viruses do, they change over time,” she said, adding later that, “this pandemic is far from over.”

In the United States, Helix scientists and collaborators with the University of Washington Medical Center and Thermo Fisher Scientific sequenced 29,719 samples between November 2021 and February 2022 and identified 20 cases where a person was “co-infected” with the Delta and Omicron variants and two additional cases where the infection was pinpointed as being caused by the variant resulting from the recombination of Delta and Omicron.

Our study demonstrates the existence of co-infections, the presence of a recombinant population in at least one of these co-infections, and the existence of two infections consisting almost entirely of multiple copies of a recombinant virus. However, the mechanism by which a recombinant virus comes to dominate an infection remains somewhat of a puzzle,” researchers wrote in the study, which was obtained by The Epoch Times prior to publication. It’s scheduled to be published as a preprint on the server medRxiv in the coming days.

Possibilities include the two infections starting as co-infections before the hybrid virus outcompeted the Delta and Omicron variants, according to the researchers, who were backed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health.

In France, a team funded by the government identified three cases infected by the recombinant, following earlier identification of 17 others, the team reported in a preprint study.

Professor Phillipe Colson, one of the authors, told The Epoch Times in an email that there are too few cases right now “to figure out the epidemiological and clinical features of this hybrid.”

We wonder what a large part of an Omicron BA.1 spike (without the N-terminal domain) may change in a Delta genome regarding virus transmissibility and clinical presentation,” he added.

Scientists in Cyprus were said to initially report the hybrid in January, though some experts said the identified strain appeared to be a result of lab contamination.

John Moore, a virologist with Cornell University, said he wasn’t sure the more recently reported hybrid was real or not; both the U.S. and French teams said their results are legitimate.

Regardless, for now, there’s no reason to worry, Moore told The Epoch Times in an email.

“What’s the point? If it’s not real, it will soon fizzle out. If it is real, what good does worrying about it do? Let’s see what emerges over time, but I need a LOT more than what’s here to be concerned about yet another ‘scariant’ story,” he said.

end

GLOBAL ISSUES

TOM LUONGO…….

a must read..

Luongo: The Ins & Outs Of Whose Money Is It Anyway?

MONDAY, MAR 14, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

“Inside, Outside…. Leave me alone!
Inside, Outside … Nowhere is home!
Inside, Outside … Where have I been?
Out of my brain on the 5:15…”

– The Who

There’s been a massive reaction to Credit Suisse analyst Zoltan Poszar’s note about the birth of a new Bretton Woods agreement.

Every investor in the world should read it. Zerohedge posted (behind their paywall) a lengthy analysis of Poszar’s musing along with some reactions from Wall St. It is well worth your time.

The people most freaked out about this note are the Keynesians who worship at the altar of what Poszar calls Inside Money — money that only exists inside the financial system, bonds, credit, dollars, euros, etc.

Austrians, like myself, have always understood that eventually Inside Money fails because it is ultimately nothing more than a Ponzi Scheme built on top of Outside Money — money that exists outside the financial system, like commodities and bitcoin.

Poszar makes his early case and then goes through the mechanics of what is happening in the financial plumbing of the world economy right now to prove the stresses are real and building quickly towards an implosion of Inside Money and an explosion of Outside Money.

Again, anyone with a passing acquaintance with Austrian business cycle theory and Mises’ Theory of Money and Credit always knew this day was coming.

Today’s “Inside Money” standard, known colloquially as the Dollar Reserve standard, is actually what I like to call “Milton Friedman’s Nightmare.” It is nothing more than a system of competitively devalued and inflated debt-based scrips running around drinking each other’s milkshakes until everyone’s glass is empty.

FYI, there are a lot of empty glasses around the world right now and more are being created everyday as the financial system turned predatory after the Lehman Bros. collapse in 2008.

It was then that the Central Banks and governments turned fully against the people sucking up more and more outside money by inflating inside money egregiously to control more and more of the real wealth of the world.

There is only one problem with that, however. Eventually, you run out of property to squeeze out of people’s hands. The more you take, the less people are restrained by little things like laws.

Eventually two things happen.

  • The first is what we’ve been seeing from Russia and China for the past twelve years — steady accumulation of gold and other hard assets, outside money, including the building of real manufacturing infrastructure as well as the financial infrastructure to house it.
  • The second is just over the horizon — the moment where all the legal claims to controlling outside money mean nothing when enforcement of those legal claims gets exposed as a bluff because there aren’t enough enforcers capable of keeping the looters from taking it.

Look, I’m as much a private property guy as you can possibly conceive of but I made my peace a long time ago with what those claims of private property actually mean in the very real sense to me personally and my limits of defending them.

I can lay claim of ownership to hundreds of acres of land. I can even have a deed that proves I bought it from someone else who had a legal document to ownership. That’s legal ownership. Now, real ownership is actually being able to defend that claim by constantly applying your time and energy.

I live rural, folks. I can tell you that where the roads lie and where the legal property corners are do not square with each other. And the reality is that when you live like that, little things simply aren’t worth your time.

But, if you are a stickler for this stuff, that means, for example, rousting squatters, pressing claims of borders if people cut the corner driving along the public easement, etc. But it’s your money you have to spend, your time. You have to put up the fence, or the pole or the sign. You have to ‘police’ that claim.

And if you don’t, do you really still have that ‘claim’ to that property? Legally yes, but de facto? Be honest with yourself.

Libertarian theorists have juggled this question around for years and it naturally comes down to as Hoppe would put it, “the private production of defense.” Are you willing to continue pressing that claim over property that you are not actively ‘mixing your labor’ with?

If not, then let it go and let someone else make better use of it.

I know this opens up a massive can of philosophical worms. That’s exactly the point I’m trying to make. When civilization breaks down, legal claims tend towards zero value.

Civilization breaks down through the systemic subversion of the agreed upon rules to the advantage of some at the expense of the other.

And what bigger subversion of the rule, “thou shalt not steal” could there be than a debt-based Ponzi scheme of inside money being used to suck up legal claims to most of the world’s valuable resources while actively suppressing the value of the competing outside money to defend people’s claims to it?

This is what Poszar is implying when he says we’re moving away from inside money to outside money. Inside money is created through rules and laws, not markets. 

Outside money is created through labor, time and human ingenuity. It is tokenized human capital.

This is the real implication of Poszar’s note that we are approaching a new Bretton-Woods where outside money will replace inside money as the reserve asset of the financial system.

The West has stupidly picked a fight with the one country, Russia, that has the commodities needed to run the world and bring about this return to an outside money based system.  

Poszar rightly argues that the inside money system only works if commodities trade within tight spreads, ie. almost zero geographic arbitrage.  This is another way of saying, this shit money is ,only worth using if everyone has confidence of the system because commodity prices are not under real systemic stress.

It works because everyone still believes (wrongly) that the rules of civilization are mostly equitable and it’s possible to defend your property through its institutions.

Individual commodity markets can be subject to the vicissitudes of living — boom/bust cycles, weather, etc.. But when the entire commodity complex is under stress like it is now, that’s a ‘no-confidence’ vote against the inside money system.

That’s what we witnessed breaking last week with the London Metals Exchange shutting down futures trading in nickel.

Now let’s think through what we now know about this situation which has come to light since it first occurred and Poszar wrote his little note. We found out that the LME was shut down because one Chinese tycoon was caught massively short and his counter-party was one of the most systemically-important banks in the world, JP Morgan Chase.

Moreover, the LME didn’t reopen because he didn’t want to cover his short, but double down. And now the LME is trying to reverse all the trades that occurred on Wednesday.

Rules for thee and not for me. Oh look, someone thought all that inside money was actually worth something to claim outside money in the real world. How quaint.

I’m sure this situation will eventually work itself out. But, let’s be clear here, the LME is now effectively done as an exchange.   Just like Black-Faced Hitler destroyed the concept of private savings in Canada a few weeks back because some truckers made him look like the little bitch that he is, the LME undermined global confidence in it as a way to coordinate supply and demand for important commodities through price and time.

It is also just like the US State and Treasury departments making a mockery of the concept of foreign exchange reserves and the value of anyone’s savings held in something other than their deplorable, little hands?

Now let’s connect some other dots shall we?  

Because here’s the thing everyone has forgotten going back 10 years….. Who owns the LME?

It ain’t London.  It ain’t New York.  It’s China.  And they bought it 10 years ago.  

For those wondering when China was going to make its move to support Russia in this financial war, I think it happened on March 8th when they shut down the LME.   What do I mean by this?

Let’s set the Wayback Machine to last year shall we? Do we all remember Archegos Capital? Bill Hwang’s ridiculous one-way portfolio of CFD’s for momentum meme stocks which pulled in nearly every Western Prime Broker into a vortex so powerful it shook the entire financial system to its core?

Back I noted that just prior to Archegos blowing up, Ukraine had “declared war on Russia by making it Ukrainian security policy to retake Crimea.” and prominent members of the US State dept. calling Taiwan “a country.”

So I asked this question:

 “If you were the Chinese and you were now in a hybrid war with the U.S. how would you send a message back across the Pacific?”

By blowing up a test financial nuke like Archegos was my conclusion.

So, now here we are a year later with a real hot war in Ukraine. The West is screaming at Russia for abrogating legal agreements and the UN Charter. The Russians watched the US and NATO unilaterally pull out of such treaties previously under the last three presidents, knowing full well that ‘legal claims’ to anything at this point aren’t worth anything if they cannot be enforced.

The war in Ukraine is a manifestation of my second effect of stealing real wealth through inside money.

Ukraine is steadily, inexorably being swallowed up by Russia’s Special Operation there, establishing new facts on the ground which make a mockery of all of these previous legal arrangements to property. Russia just pulled up the boundary markers and said, “They are here, now.”

And the question everyone has been asking is, “What are the Chinese going to do about all of this?”

Well, I think, they just did.

Why would the LME allow this guy to amass this insane position in Nickel futures when he’s clearly not interested in taking delivery of the metal (the whole purpose of commodity futures trading in the first place). He’s just a speculator. So, position limits don’t matte all of a sudden? But, if I’m China I allow this to get out of control, knowing all it takes is the application of a pittance of newly-minted inside money to blow up the whole nickel market.

And with it the validity of the LME as a futures exchange.

I’m having a hard time not seeing this as China just fucked the West completely by destroying the validity of the LME.  

It could just be, like Archegos, an initial round of financial system blackmail. Today nickel, tomorrow…. gold?

Regardless, it just broke the confidence of the LME as a clearinghouse for commodity traders.  

This means that we’ve seen the peak of the LME/CRIMEX control over the gold and silver markets as capital will now shift away from London to Shanghai.  Remember, Shanghai has a well-established futures exchange for what?  Gold and oil.  And what does that oil contract represent?  Medium-sour oil, the most plentiful of which is {drumroll please!}… Russian Urals grade.

And now the global financial markets, which are dependent on the fiction of paper gold (‘inside gold’) as the real reserve asset of the system inflated to extreme numbers, >200 oz paper to every 1 oz of physical reserve, are vulnerable to the worst kind of deflationary shock we’ve ever seen.

Poszar gave us the clues with his note.  

The Petrodollar is the M0 of global trade.  Paper Gold is the M0 of the financial markets on which the current asset pricing system is based. Inside money is deflating, outside money inflating.

Wall St. realized the petrodollar was dead ages ago and that the move for them now was to get ahead of the game and into the other outside money worth considering, bitcoin. Of course, they want to recreate the old paper gold trade with bitcoin to keep their inside money games going. But, I don’t think that’s going to be enough to save them.

The FOMC is staring at an existential choice this week. How much do we raise rates in the US knowing the deflationary shock it will have on asset prices, especially since the ECB just signaled it’s getting on the tightening bandwagon?

Because if the Fed is aggressively hawkish on Wednesday that is your signal that Congress’ new spending blackmail will not be funded with cheap inside money anymore. The cost will be higher than the US can afford and stay solvent. If they aren’t then they caved and it’s time accelerate personal plans of de-dollarization to defend what property you have left.

Russia and China should control the Gold and Oil trades now.  They will be the price-makers.  We will be the price-takers.  They are about to change the denominator in the global forex markets from the USD (inside money) to gold/oil (outside money). 

What we have to realize now is that real price discovery for gold and oil are going to shift quickly away from London and Chicago and towards Shanghai and Moscow.  Expect announcements from Russia and China deepening the relationship between the MOEX and Shanghai for coordinating metals and energy futures trading to improve liquidity on both exchanges.

It’s the right play, honestly.  

Biden going it alone against Russia on banning imports of Russian oil is a move to destroy the U.S. energy markets and our economy.  It is pure scorched earth policy.  

Now Biden et.al. are looking for ways to freeze Russia’s gold so they can’t spend it.  What these congenital morons do not realize is Russia isn’t going to SPEND ITS GOLD, it’s going to ACCUMULATE EVEN MORE OF IT. 

Freeze it all you want guys, you won’t be in power in eight months. Right now Wall St. and the Fed have to step in and demand a change at the top of the US government to oust these insane Davos vandals or the US is toast along with the smoking hole that Europe is already.

end

IVERMECTIN

New Study Confirms Ivermectin Outperforms Other Options

Inbox

Robert Hryniak5:41 PM (7 minutes ago)
to

FYI 

New Study Confirms Ivermectin Outperforms Other Options

(By 
Callista Images/Getty Images)

Tested on the Omicron variant, ivermectin outperformed 10 medications, including one approved for emergency use. Early treatment can lower hospitalization, mortality and symptoms of long COVID.

At nearly no other time in history has there been this level of fear generated across the world as experienced thus far in 2020 and 2021. The depth and breadth of the strategies used to stoke those fears has been overwhelming.

Emergency use authorizations for drugs that have not proven to be effective in trials, public mask mandates for which there is no scientific evidence and the suppression and censorship of health information has boosted public fear over a viral illness with a survival rate of over 99%.

Unfortunately, many of the early effective treatment strategies that can be used at home have also fallen victim to censorship. Ivermectin is one of those strategies. In a computational analysis of the Omicron variant against several therapeutic agents, data show that ivermectin had the best results.

Yet, as you look objectively at what’s been happening across the world, the fear being generated is not one-sided. The suppression of information by corporations, government agencies and the pharmaceutical industry is one indication of their concern and how far they’re willing to go to ensure the level of fear remains high enough to manipulate behavior.

Consider the statistics from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In 2019, 4.6% of the U.S. population was diagnosed with heart disease. The population at the end of 2019 was 328,239,523. This means there were 15,099,018 people with heart disease in the U.S. in 2019. There were 696,962 people who died that year from heart disease, which is a death rate of 4.6%.

This is 20 times greater than the death rate from COVID-19. Yet these same agencies were not lobbying for mandates against soda or sugar-laden foods; they weren’t banning smoking and they weren’t mandating exercise — all heart disease risk factors.

The censorship and suppression of information has hobbled early treatment of COVID-19 in many western nations. Through 2020, public health experts and the mainstream media warned against the use of hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin. Both are on the World Health Organization’s list of essential drugs, but the benefits have been ignored by public health officials and buried by the media.

Newest Ivermectin Study Showed Best Results Against COVID

This study on Cornell University’s preprint website has not yet been peer-reviewed. Researchers used a computational analysis to look at the Omicron variant, which has demonstrated a lower clinical presentation and lower hospital admission rates.

After having retrieved the complete genome sequence and collecting 30 variants from the database, the researchers analyzed 10 drugs against the virus, including:

  • Nirmatrelvir
  • Ritonvir
  • Ivermectin
  • Lopinavir
  • Boceprevir
  • MPro 13b
  • MPro N3
  • GC-373
  • GC376
  • PF-00835231

The researchers found that each of the drugs had some degree of effectiveness against the virus and most were currently in clinical trials. They used molecular docking to find that the mutations in the Omicron variant didn’t significantly affect the interaction between the drugs and the main protease.

An analysis of all 10 drugs found that ivermectin was the most effective drug candidate against the Omicron variant. The testing included Nirmatrelvir (Paxlovid), which is the new protease inhibitor for which the FDA provided an emergency use authorization against COVID in December 2021.

In other words, Pfizer released a new drug which cost the U.S. taxpayers $5.29 billion or $529 per course of treatment and which received an EUA despite the availability of a similar drug that has proven to be more effective and is cheaper, priced between $48 and $95 for 20 pills depending on your location.

How Ivermectin Works

Ivermectin is best known for its antiparasitic properties. Yet, the drug also has antiviral and anti-inflammatory properties. Studies have shown that ivermectin helps to lower the viral load by inhibiting replication. A single dose of ivermectin can kill 99.8% of the virus within 48 hours.

A meta-analysis in the American Journal of Therapeutics showed the drug reduced infection by an average of 86% when used preventively. An observational study in Bangladesh evaluated the effectiveness of ivermectin as a prophylaxis for COVID-19 in health care workers.

The data showed four of the 58 volunteers who took 12 mg of ivermectin once a month for four months developed mild COVID symptoms as compared to 44 of the 60 health care workers who declined the medication.

Ivermectin has also been shown to speed recovery, in part by inhibiting inflammation and protecting against organ damage.27 This pathway also lowers the risk of hospitalization and death. Meta analyses have shown an average reduction in mortality that ranges from 75%28 to 83%.29 30

Additionally, the drug also prevents transmission of SARS-CoV-2 when taken before or after exposure.31 Added together, these benefits make it clear that ivermectin could all but eliminate this pandemic.

Early Intervention Lowers Long COVID and Hospitalization

Some people who have had COVID-19 seem to be unable to fully recover and complain of lingering symptoms of chronic fatigue. Others struggle with mental health problems. One study, in November 2020, found 18.1% of people who had COVID-19 received their first psychiatric diagnosis in the 14 to 90 days after recovery. Most commonly diagnosed conditions were anxiety disorders, insomnia and dementia.

These symptoms have come to be called long COVID, long-haul COVID, post-COVID syndrome, chronic COVID or long-haul syndrome. They all refer to symptoms that persist for four more weeks after an initial COVID-19 infection. According to Dr. Peter McCullough, board-certified internist and cardiologist, 50% of those who have been sick enough to be hospitalized will have symptoms of long COVID:

“So, the sicker someone is, and the longer the duration of COVID, the more likely they are to have long COVID syndrome. That’s the reason why we like early treatment. We shorten the duration of symptoms and there’s less of a chance for long COVID syndrome.”

Some of the common symptoms of long COVID include shortness of breath, joint pain, memory, concentration or sleeping problems, muscle pain or headache and loss of smell or taste. According to McCullough, a paper presented by Dr. Bruce Patterson at the International COVID Summit in Rome, September 11 to 14, 2021:

“… showed that in individuals who’ve had significant COVID illness, 15 months later the s1 segment of the spike protein is recoverable from human monocytes. That means the body literally has been sprayed with the virus and it spends 15 months, in a sense, trying to clean out the spike protein from our tissues. No wonder people have long COVID syndrome.”

It should come as no surprise that studies have also confirmed that early intervention improves mortality and reduces hospitalizations. Perhaps one of the greatest crimes in this whole pandemic is the refusal by reigning health authorities to issue early treatment guidance.

Instead, they’ve done everything possible to suppress remedies shown to work. Patients were simply told to stay home and do nothing. Once the infection had worsened to the point of near-death, patients were told to go to the hospital, where most were routinely placed on mechanical ventilation — a practice that was quickly discovered to be lethal.

However, as the featured study and others have demonstrated, ivermectin is one of the successful treatment protocols that can be used against SARS-CoV-2.

Africa Has Lowest Case and Death Rate, Likely From Ivermectin

Across the world, countries have taken different approaches to address the spread of the virus. The steps taken in Africa varied depending on the country, yet the infection and death rates were relatively stable and low across the continent.

In the last year there have been reports of small areas in the world where the number of infections, deaths or case-fatality rates have been significantly lower than the rest of the world. For example, India’s Uttar Pradesh State reported a recovery rate of 98.6% and no further infections.

However, the entire continent of Africa appears to have sidestepped the massive number of infections and deaths predicted for these poorly funded countries with overcrowded cities. Early estimations were that millions would die, but that scenario has not materialized. The World Health Organization has called Africa “one of the least affected regions in the world.”

There are several factors that may influence the infection rate in Africa. A study from Japan demonstrates that after just 12 days that doctors were allowed to legally prescribe Ivermectin to their patients, the cases dropped dramatically.

The chairman of the Tokyo Medical Associatio had noticed the low number of infections and deaths in Africa, where many use ivermectin prophylactically and as the core strategy to treat onchocerciasis, a parasitic disease also known as river blindness. More than 99% of people infected with river blindness live in 31 African countries.

In addition to ivermectin use in Africa, other medications are also commonly available, such as hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, which have long been used in the treatment and prevention of malaria, also endemic in Africa. In America, Dr. Vladimir Zelenko has published successful results using hydroxychloroquine and zinc against COVID-19.

Finally, Artemisia annua, also known as sweet wormwood, is an herb used in combination therapies to treat malaria. It was used in traditional Chinese medicine for more than 2,000 years to treat fever. Today artemisinin, a metabolite of Artemisia, is the current therapeutic option for malaria. The plant has also been studied since the 2003 SARS outbreak for the treatment of coronaviruses, with good results.

In other words, whether by design or default, the medications that have proven to be successful against the virus are commonly used in Africa for other health conditions. While Pfizer tests the short- and long-term effects of a genetic experiment on Israel’s population, it appears one continent has demonstrated administration of a 30-year-old, inexpensive drug with a known safety profile could reduce the cases, severity and mortality from this infection.

The question that must be asked and answered to get to the bottom of this pandemic is what is blinding mainstream media, government agencies, public health experts, medical associations, doctors, nurses, and your next-door neighbor from recognizing and speaking out in support of science?

end

Project Veritas Releases Documents Proving Fauci Lied UNDER OATH: Ivermectin Works And Gov’t Hid Life-Saving Truth – enVolve

Inbox

Robert HryniakFri, Mar 11, 8:05 PM (13 hours ago)
to

No wonder he is scarce.

end

END

VACCINE INJURIES/

Large German Insurance Company Estimates 2.5-3 Million People in Germany ‘under treatment for side effects of vaccination after Covid shot’ – The HighWire

Inbox

Robert Hryniak7:19 PM (0 minutes ago)
to

And this seems only the start of really getting a glimmer of the real fallout.

Vaccine-Injuries SKYROCKET: Two Months into 2022, Vaccine-Related Myocarditis Reports in VAERS Have Surged to Nearly Half the Total Reported in 2021

Inbox

Robert HryniakSat, Mar 12, 5:05 PM (16 hours ago)
to

Awful
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/03/vaccine-injuries-skyrocket-two-months-2022-vaccine-related-myocarditis-reports-vaers-surged-nearly-half-total-reported-2021/

Facts Matter (March 11): The Pfizer Documents: 158K Adverse Events, 42K Case reports, 1.2K Fatalities in First 3 Months

Inbox

Robert Hryniak4:38 PM (6 minutes ago)
to

https://www.theepochtimes.com/facts-matter-march-11-the-pfizer-documents-158k-adverse-events-42k-case-reports-1-2k-fatalities-in-first-3-months_4332470.html


end

Fwd: dr malone

Inbox

Neil Alho7:40 PM (13 minutes ago)
to bcc: me

Neil

———- Forwarded message ———
From: Neil Alho<neilalho59@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, Mar 11, 2022, 5:08 PM
Subject: dr malone
To: Neil Alho <neilalho59@gmail.com>

end

It’s Official: Vitamin D Reduces the Incidence of Autoimmunity

Inbox

Robert Hryniak1:59 PM (3 hours ago)
to

https://www.greenmedinfo.com/blog/its-official-vitamin-d-reduces-incidence-autoimmunity

VACCINE MANDATES

VACCINE IMPACT

The Thousands of Fetal Deaths Recorded After COVID-19 Vaccines that Nobody Wants to Report and that Facebook is Trying Hard to Censor

March 13, 2022 7:08 pm

The most recent update of VAERS shows that there have now been 3,852 fetal deaths following COVID-19 vaccines. That’s a 3,525% increase in fetal deaths following COVID-19 vaccines, compared to reported fetal deaths following all FDA approved vaccines combined for the previous 30 years. And still, I have not seen one single source in the Alternative Media report on these statistics (although a few of them have picked up our articles on the topic.) Why is that? Is it because they are afraid to cite us as a source for coming up with these search parameters, due to the fact that we report the truth on pro-vaccine Donald Trump, and the pro-vaccine superstar doctors which would upset their reader base and supporters?? Is that why these statistics are censored in the Alternative Media? If so, then you all have blood on your hands, because you are withholding what could be life-saving information to help a pregnant woman or child-bearing age woman make an informed decision about whether or not to receive one of these shots. Since we appear to be the only one publishing these statistics on fetal deaths, they have been shared widely on Facebook, as one would expect, forcing Facebook to call out their “Fact Checkers” to kill the traffic to our websites where we publish this data. But if you read the actual article they wrote, if you understand English and have at least a 3rd grade reading level, you will quickly see that they do not deny the facts we are reporting at all, but instead are attacking us based on the search tool we used to extract this data from VAERS, which is Medalerts.org. But even then, they are not disputing the fact that the data extracted from VAERS through Medalerts.org is inaccurate or different from the CDC’s own front-end search tool for VAERS, because it is not, it is because they do not like the organization who developed this search tool, the National Vaccine Information Center (NVIC), who they refer to as “an anti-vaccine organization.” And yet, they give credit to the NVIC for being the ones who originally made this data in VAERS accessible to the public, and that the CDC’s tool to search VAERS followed years later.

Read More…


Pfizer CEO Backpedals, Claims Pressured Into Producing ‘Counterintuitive’ mRNA Injections

March 13, 2022 7:27 pm

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla tried distancing himself from the COVID mRNA vaccines on Friday, suggesting he only developed the “counterintuitive” technology under pressure from colleagues. In a Washington Post Live special titled, “Moonshot: Inside Pfizer’s Nine-Month Race to Make the Impossible Possible”, host Jonathon Capehart asked Bourla on Thursday why Pfizer decided to pursue experimental mRNA vaccines despite the nascency of the developing technology. “When you and your colleague were trying to decide which route to go down: the traditional vaccine route or the mRNA route. You write that it was ‘most counterintuitive’ to go the mRNA route. And yet, you went that route. Explain why,” Capehart said. Bourla explained the mRNA decision “was counterintuitive because Pfizer was mastering- or let’s say we had very good experience and expertise with multiple technologies that could give a vaccine, and the Novartis that some of the vaccines are, we were very good in doing that. Protein vaccines, we were very good in doing that and plus many other technologies.”

Read More…




Michael Every

on the major topics of the day

Michael Every…

end

7. OIL ISSUES

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL//COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

NEW ZEALAND

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0943 UP .0039 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN    

USA/ YEN 117.94  UP + .744 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3021 UP   0.0009

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 86.21 PTS OR 2.60%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 1022.13PTS OR 4.97%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.13%   // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN   

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN     

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 1022.13 PTS OR 4.97%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 86.21 PTS OR 2.60%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.13%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 145.97 PTS OR 0.58%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1965.90

silver:$25.30-

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 99.001  DOWN 12  CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.21%  UP 10  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.195%  UP 1 AND 1/10   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.38%// UP 8   in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 1.97 UP 11    points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 59 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +0.368% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.60% AND NOW ABOVE   THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY  

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0952  UP .0048    or 48 basis points

USA/Japan: 118.15 UP 0.953 OR YEN DOWN 95  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3005 DOWN 25  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN 95 BASIS pts to 1.2822

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED )..DOWN 6.3654  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.3968

TURKISH LIRA:  14.78  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.195

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 14  IN basis points from FRIDAY at  12.141% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.473 UP 12 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 99.05 DOWN 7   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 27.83 PTS OR 0.53%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 201.00 points or 2.21%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 109.69.PTS OR 1.75% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 92.30PTS OR 1.13%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 385.50 PTS OR 1.67%

WTI Oil price 101.50    12: EST

Brent Oil:  105.37  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:   122.0 UP  12 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE UP BY 12  BASIS PTS )

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.368

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0952 UP  .0048   OR DOWN 104 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3005 DOWN  .0025 or DOWN 25 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 118.15 UP 0.950YEN/DOLAR 

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2822 UP .0095 (CDN dollar DOWN 85 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 101.50

Brent OIL:  105.37

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.141 UP 13 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.473  UP 12  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.78

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA ROUBLE:  122.00 UDOWN 12ROUBLES (ROUBLE UP 12 ROUBLES/USA )//

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 0.59 PTS OR 0.00%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 255.19 PTS OR 1.92%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 32.47 UP 1.72 PTS OR 5.59%

GLD: 182.30 DOWN 12.79 PTS OR 1.51%

SLV/ 23.15 DOWN .72 PTS OR 3.02%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Carnage: China Breaks, Apple Cracks Key Support, Yields Soar As Rate Hike Odds Surge

MONDAY, MAR 14, 2022 – 04:07 PM

The week started off badly enough with nothing short of epic devastation in China, as stocks listed in Hong Kong had their worst day since the global financial crisis amid concerns over Beijing’s close relationship with Russia, a surge in covid cases leading to a lockdown in Shenzhen, and renewed regulatory risks all of which sparked panic selling.

The Hang Seng index dropped more than 4%, sliding below 20,000 to the lowest level since 2015…

… as the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closed down 7.2% on Monday, the biggest drop since November 2008.

Meanwhile, the Hang Sang Tech Index tumbled 11% in its worst decline since the gauge was launched in July 2020, wiping out $2.1 trillion in value since a year-earlier peak, after the southern city of Shenzhen, a key tech hub near Hong Kong, was placed into lockdown to contain rising Covid-19 infections. The broader Hang Seng Index lost 5%.

The US-traded Golden Dragon China index tumbled another 12%, taking its drawdown to -75% from its recent all time high, surpassing the drawdown recorded during the global financial crisis!

“If the U.S. decides to impose sanctions on China in total or on individual Chinese companies doing business with Russia, that would be a concern,” said EM investing legend Mark Mobius, “The whole story is still up in the air in this case.”

Meanwhile, as discussed last night in “All Hell is Breaking Loose in China“, it wasn’t just Chinese stocks that got taken to the woodshed: Chinese property developer junk bonds were true to their name, and issues by such formerly “solid” issuers as CIFI and Country Garden cratered to lowest levels in history, both trading about 50 cents on the dollar.

Against this cataclysmic background, US futures were initially surprisingly stable, in a rerun of Friday’s hopium trade where traders were expecting some good news out of today’s Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, which however never came. Algos were perhaps also looking at the slide in oil – which had traded recently as a “peace” proxy – and expecting some resolution that would finally short-circuit the surge in commodity costs. And indeed, oil has tumbled almost $30 from its recent highs over $130 to just over $100 today…

… but as the day drew on, it became clear that just like Friday there would be no deal, while the drop in oil was almost entirely due to rising recession fears.

Meanwhile, a bizarre announcement from Barclays early in the day, that the bank would suspend sales and issuance of the VXX ETN led to a furious short squeeze, as the key ETN decoupled from the Emini, and soared higher in the process sparking even more selling from correlation algos, which led to even more upside in the VXX and so on. This particular dislocation will likely persist until Barclays get a tap on the shoulder as there are countless hedge funds who are short the VXX and will suffer massive losses unless the relationship is normalized.

As a result of the broad riskoff shift, the drawdowns across all US equity indexes became even more pronounced, dragging the Russell and Nasdaq deeper into bear market territory, and the S&P now down 13% from its all time highs…

… and while there was carnage everywhere, especially in energy as the YTD best performing sector suffered major losses today, sliding 3% and the day’s worst performer…

… the biggest micro driver was AAPL’s 2.7% plunge, which tumbled to the lowest level since Nov 15 and more importantly, dropped below its key 200DMA critical support for the first time since June 2021 as traders freaked out that the shutdown of the Shenzhen Foxconn factory would lead to a supply chain shock for the world’s biggest company.

Yet despite the broadbased carnage, there was none of the traditional flight to safety, because as gold and silver tumbled…

… so did Treasuries with the 10Y yield closing at session highs just shy of 2.15% but more ominously the 5% is right behind and breathing down the benchmark bond’s neck at 2.10%!

Finally, with the Fed meeting looming in just two days and, instead of pricing in some mercy from Powell, the fed funds market saw even more pain, and now prices in more than 7 rate hikes in 2022 and more than 17% odds of a 50bps rate hike in March in response to what is an inflation tsunami that is only just starting…

… and with it bringing much more pain for stocks in the coming weeks and months.

I) /MORNING TRADING

Certainly not peaceful!!

(zerohedge)

Stocks Give Up Overnight Gains Following Kremlin Comments

MONDAY, MAR 14, 2022 – 07:33 AM

US equity futures surged overnight – again – on hopes of an ‘imminent’ peace deal between Russia and Ukraine; and now  – once again – equities are reverting lower following comments from the Kremlin that do not sound very ‘peace-deal-like…

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on a conference call that “Russia will realize all its plans in Ukraine operation,” adding that the “operation would be complete on schedule,” and would not rule out taking “full control” of major Ukraine cities.

We don’t think this is the ‘hope’ that Zelensky and the market was looking for.

Peskov went on to confirm that Russia “did not request China military aid,” adding that “Russia had the resources to complete the Ukraine operation alone.”

And he could not resist a jab the puppetmasters, commenting that “it appears that the bosses of Ukraine across the ocean are giving orders to the Ukrainian army.”

…and down we go…

And given the recent modest bounce in Biden’s approval, do we really think his administrations wants this war over already… this far from the Midterms?

END

AFTERNOON

END

II) USA DATA

end

end

IIb) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATE STORIES

iii) USA inflation//SHIPPING commentaries//LOG JAMS//

end

iii) USA economic stories

Bird flu has hit the uSA pretty hard as 2.8 million chickens and turkeys have died. This will cause further inflation in our food stock

(Michael Snyder)

2.8 Million Fowl (Mostly Chickens & Turkeys) Have Died In The First Month Of America’s Raging New Bird Flu Pandemic

SUNDAY, MAR 13, 2022 – 08:45 PM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

On top of everything else, now a highly pathogenic avian influenza pandemic is ripping across the United States, and it has already resulted in the deaths of almost 2.8 million birds.  Most of the birds that have died have been chickens or turkeys.  And since this was just in the very first month of the pandemic, there is no telling how bad it could eventually become.  What will the eventual death toll look like?  Will it be in the tens of millions?  That is definitely a possibility.  And what would happen if the bird flu mutates into a version that spreads easily among humans?  We might want to start thinking about that, because that is possible too.

I knew that the bird flu outbreak was bad, but I didn’t know that it had gotten this bad.  The following comes from a prominent farming website

With new outbreaks in Iowa and Missouri, nearly 2.8 million birds — almost entirely chickens and turkeys — have died in one month due to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), the Agriculture Department said on Monday. The viral disease has been identified in 23 poultry farms and backyard flocks in a dozen states since February 8, when the first report of “high path” bird flu in a domestic flock was reported.

2.8 million dead birds in just one month.

Will next month be even worse?

And the number of states that have detected bird flu has actually gone up since that article came out.  Nebraska just became the 13th state to detect a positive case of HPAI.

To me, one of the most alarming things is that this flu just keeps hitting more commercial flocks.  On Monday, officials announced that a commercial flock of turkeys in northwest Iowa had been affected

Officials announced Monday that they have identified bird flu in a commercial flock of 50,000 turkeys in northwest Iowa, the state’s second case of a virus that has been identified in multiple U.S. states.

Iowa agriculture officials and the U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed the case in Buena Vista County, about 100 miles (160 kilometers) north of the case identified March 1 in a backyard flock of 42 ducks and chickens in Pottawattamie County.

When one bird in a flock tests positive, all of the birds have to be put down.

That is how authorities try to contain the disease.

But it just keeps popping up in widely diverse places.  Just check out what has taken place within the past few days

In the past few days officials have identified the virus on a southeast Missouri farm with 240,000 broiler chickens, a commercial mixed species flock in southeastern South Dakota and an egg-laying hen operation in northeast Maryland.

This is truly a nightmare.

And we just learned that the H5N1 strain has been detected at yet another poultry farm in Delaware

Another Delaware poultry farm has identified the highly pathogenic avian influenza strain among their population, according to Delaware Department of Agriculture officials.

According to officials, a pullet operation in New Castle County identified the H5N1 strain following federal laboratory testing.

All of the chickens at that facility were rapidly “depopulated”, and officials are assuring us that no infected birds will enter the food system

It is the first time since 2004 that avian influenza was identified in an area broiler farm, officials with the Delmarva Chicken Association (DCA) said Wednesday. All affected premises have been quarantines, and birds are being or have been depopulated to prevent spread. Birds from affected flocks will not be distributed to the food system, officials said.

At this point, this pandemic is not just limited to one geographic area.

There have been lots of cases on the east coast, and there have been cases as far west as Nebraska and South Dakota.

Basically, the area that has been affected already covers about half the nation, and we are just one month into this new plague.

Let us hope that it stays just in birds, because if it jumps to humans we are going to have a real disaster on our hands.

Since 1997, bird flu has had about a 50 percent death rate in humans…

From 1997 to now, more than 880 people worldwide were infected, with approximately a 50% case fatality proportion. That includes 20 cases and seven deaths in Hong Kong between 1997 and 2003.

The good news is that the strains that are circulating around the globe right now do not spread easily to humans.

But just like COVID, bird flu is mutating all the time.

And scientists have warned us that it could eventually mutate into a strain that does spread easily among humans.

Late last year, two people in China died after catching a strain of the bird flu known as H5N6

China has reported to more H5N6 avian flu infections in humans, both fatal in people who were sick in November and died in early December, Hong Kong’s Centre for Health Protection (CHP) said in a statement today.

The patients are a 12-year-old girl and a 79-year-old man, both from the city of Liuzhou in Guangxi province. They had both been at a live-poultry market before they got sick and started experiencing symptoms 1 day apart from each other, suggesting that they might be family members. The girl and the man died 1 day apart, the man on Dec 3 and the girl on Dec 4.

Personally, I have always been more concerned about H5N1, but the truth is that if any strain were to begin spreading like wildfire among humans the death toll would be catastrophic.

But even if this bird flu pandemic stays only in birds, we are going to lose millions upon millions of chickens and turkeys at a time when food prices have already been soaring into the stratosphere.

The global food crisis that we have been warned about is already here, and so this new plague has come at a really, really bad time.

We continue to be hit by one thing after another, and it seems like each new day brings even more bad news.

If you enjoy eating chicken or turkey, I would stock up now, because prices are only going to go higher from here.

end

Our wonderful media is not warning Americans that it is heading towards a huge food crisis

(zerohedge)

“Media Isn’t Warning You” That US Careening Towards Food Crisis 

SUNDAY, MAR 13, 2022 – 11:15 PM

Two weeks after the Russia-Ukraine crisis began, the world is quickly moving toward a food crisis that could affect millions of people. A spillover of the crisis could soon spark agricultural mayhem in the US. 

The curtailment of agricultural exports from Russia and Ukraine will have dramatic knock-on effects on global food supplies. Both countries are known as the ‘breadbasket of the world’ and are responsible for a quarter of the international wheat trade, about a fifth of corn, and 12% of all calories traded globally. Another major problem is access to fertilizers, as Russia has banned exports of the nutrients. 

It’s not whether or not there will be a food crisis. It’s how big that crisis will be. 

We’ve already noted a handful of emerging market countries to monitor as the Russian invasion is choking off grain exports to them and causing prices to rise, which may result in social unrest. Even in the Western world, agricultural markets have not been immune, and higher prices have stung consumers.  

A tweet from Douglas Karr, the founder of the businesses blog Martech Zone, made the point the “media isn’t even warning you” a food crisis in America is emerging. 

Karr said he spoke with numerous folks in the food industry who said farmers in the South and Midwest are having trouble procuring fertilizer to grow crops ahead of planting season. He said farmers in the “Midwest are switching,” likely referring to crops that need fewer nutrients because they “can’t get nitrogen nor fertilizer.”

Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, the global food system was strained. Snarled supply chains and adverse weather conditions in top growing regions of the world resulted in low crop yields and rising prices. The supply shock of Ukraine will amplify the crisis as the UN warned global food prices could jump 8%-20% from here (prices are already at record highs). 

Responding to Karr’s viral tweet, some people said they were buying a freezer to panic hoard food supplies as the worst food crisis has yet to come. 

“Likely getting a 2nd chest freezer soon and stuffing it with meats/frozen vegetables/etc. Also, it looks like “preppers” who were dismissed or made fun of last decade are about to be set on being right,” one person said

Another person said, “Read this and then understand why in the last 6 months several publications have been grooming us to accept eating bugs. All of this was planned. Buy a 2nd freezer, and stock it. Soon.” 

iv)swamp stories

KING REPORT/SWAMP STORIES

he King Report March 14, 2022 Issue 6717Independent View of the News
The Ukraine-Russia War is at an inflection point; the world is at an historic inflection point!
 
FT: Russia asks China for military assistance in its invasion of Ukraine   https://t.co/NwAe7UtEIi
US officials have said there were signs that Russia was running out of some kinds of weaponryIt also raises fresh questions over the China-Russia relationship…  it also highlights China’s position as the clear senior partner in the relationship now,”… https://t.co/NwAe7UtEIi
 
Chinese embassy says has never heard of Russian requests for help
https://www.reuters.com/world/chinese-embassy-says-has-never-heard-russian-requests-ukraine-help-2022-03-13/
 
Ex-commanding General US Army Europe @general_ben: This is a race…Ukraine can outlast the Russians if we can accelerate and expand the delivery of necessary weapons to destroy Russian arty, rockets and cruise missile launchers. Russians are running out of manpower, ammunition and time.
 
Jake Sullivan warns Beijing ‘there will absolutely be consequences’ if they aid Putin’s invasion of Ukraine  https://americanwirenews.com/jake-sullivan-warns-beijing-there-will-absolutely-be-consequences-if-they-aid-putins-invasion-of-ukraine/
 
Senior Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi will meet U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in Rome, Italy, on Monday… https://t.co/LvAhoSHnmP
 
Russia and China’s ‘no-limits’ friendship is put to the test https://t.co/XIxr1Kkchc
 
Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice
The United States would regain leadership in the Western world, and the West would become more united… The power of the West will grow significantly, NATO will continue to expand, and U.S. influence in the non-Western world will increase… China will become more isolatedChina cannot be tied to Putin and needs to be cut off as soon as possible… China should avoid playing both sides in the same boat, give up being neutral, and choose the mainstream position in the world… China not only cannot stand with Putin, but also should take concrete actions to prevent Putin’s possible adventures. China is the only country in the world with this capability, and it must give full play to this unique advantage… https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/
    @Halsrethink: Admitting that deep division exists in China about limitless support of Putin, this Chinese foreign policy scholar makes strong case for China to join with most other nations to urge Russia to halt its war& negotiate. Fact this has been published seems to me significant.
 
Reuters: New Ukraine military aid includes anti-armor, anti-aircraft systems, small arms – U.S.
 
Russia warns US military shipments to Ukraine are ‘legitimate targets’, prompting fears other countries could get sucked into conflict as Kyiv prepares to become ‘Putin’s Stalingrad’ and condemns NATO’s lack of bravery
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10605505/Kyiv-Putins-Stalingrad-Russias-assault-capital-doomed-fail-officials-say.html
 
@MacaesBruno: Why didn’t the US communicate to Russia that its arms shipments to Ukraine were not too be attacked? Russia has done this in Syria
 
@GOP: Joe Biden left D.C. and went on vacation again this weekend. (Must be more than R&R!)
 
@WSJ: U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan warned of a full-fledged NATO response if a Russian strike were to hit member-state Poland, after an attack on a Ukrainian military base roughly 10 miles from the border early Sunday https://t.co/mufOe0znv8
 
White House axed plan to train Ukrainians in guerrilla warfare fearing it may provoke Russia https://t.co/HOfVk2WqWM
 
Hunter Biden Received a $3.5 Million Payment from Ex-Moscow Mayor’s Wife: Republican Report
https://www.newsweek.com/hunter-biden-received-35-million-payment-ex-moscow-mayors-wife-republican-report-says-1533834
 
Can you imagine the outcry from Dems and the MSM if Donald Trump Jr. received millions from a Putin BFF & Ukrainian concerns and then acted as docilely as Team Biden does?  Is Putin blackmailing Biden?
 
Sullivan denounces Russia for “shocking and horrifying” killing of U.S. journalist in Ukraine
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-brent-renaud-journalist-killed-russia-jake-sullivan-face-the-nation/
 
Putin’s reported arrest of Russian intel official shows frustration with progress of Ukraine invasion
Russian journalist Andrei Soldatov claims that Putin has arrested the head of the Federal Security Service, Sergey Beseda…”It means that Putin is angry and recognized that he was not provided with accurate intelligence,”…  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/putin-reported-arrest-russian-intel-official-ukraine-invasion
 
@AP: As many as 12 missiles have been fired toward the U.S. consulate in Iraq’s northern city of Irbil, Iraqi security officials said. A U.S. defense official said missiles had been launched at the city from neighboring Iran. http://apne.ws/HAmaoS7
 
@LucasFoxNews: “We do not believe that the [U.S.] consulate was actually the target of this [Iranian] missile attack,” State Department’s No. 2 official tells Bret Baier on Fox News Sunday (WTH is this?!?!)
 
#3 House Republican @EliseStefanik: Why is the Biden State Department #2 serving as the spokesperson for Iranian terrorist propaganda? Joe Biden owns this horrific American weakness on the global stage. And the world is watching.
 
GOP @RepJimBanks: The Biden administration thinks school parents should be treated as terrorists, but not Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Disgraceful!
 
Biden is letting Putin run the Iran nuclear talks  https://t.co/MDzXR4MbCK
 
Why is Team Obama (titularly Biden) so desperate to appease and accommodate Iran?
 
China warns of ‘worst consequences’ for any country that supports Taiwan militarily https://t.co/p1p32PheZr
 
China Tech Selloff Deepens as U.S. Delisting Fears Alarm Traders
    Hang Seng Tech Index falls as much as 8.9%, set for worst day
    Delisting worries not new but add to weak sentiment: analysts      https://bloom.bg/3pSpfqD
 
China’s Premier Says Term Ending as Questions Over Xi Future Remain
    Li Keqiang says premiership over next year in rare disclosure
    Leadership still hasn’t confirmed Xi will stay for third term
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang says he would step down from his post after this year, pointing to a coming reshuffle amid questions over the future of President Xi Jinping…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-11/china-s-li-says-tenure-ending-as-questions-over-xi-future-remain
 
Lithuania President @GitanasNauseda: A historic night (Thurs) at Versailles. After five hours of heated discussions EU leaders said yes to Ukrainian eurointegration. The process started. Now it is up to us and Ukrainians to accomplish it fast. Heroic Ukrainian nation deserves to know that they are welcome in EU.
 
ESMs (June [M] is now the front month) declined sharply during Asian trading on due to the Chinese tech stock rout on Friday.  ESMs recovered during the final hour of Nikkei trading and rallied further during the final hour of Chinese trading (1 ET to 2 ET).  After a retreat into the European open, ESMs began a rally at 3:16 ET that persisted until 5 ET.  After a 1.5-hour modest retreat, ESMs exploded 65 handles higher from 6:22 ET to 6:25 ET.
 
The 65-handle ESM rally in only 3 minutes was due to an InterFax report that Putin told his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko that “there are certain positive developments, as far as negotiators from our side informed me” adding that “Talks are happening almost daily.”…
https://www.nxtmine.com/news/articles/articles/futures-soar-on-ukraine-positive-developments-comment-from-putin/
 
Putin Says Russia to Send Middle East Fighters to Ukraine – BBG 6:20 ET
https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/putin-says-russia-to-send-fighters-from-middle-east-to-ukraine
 
By 9:38 ET, ESMs had fallen from their 4326.75 high to 4264.25, rescinding all but 3 handles of their spectacular 65-handle rally in only 3 minutes.  The decline ended at 10:09 ET; ESMs traded 19 handles below where they were BEFORE the Putin rally commenced and 77.50 from their high.
 
A moderate rally began because The Big Guy was going to do a Teleprompter reading.
 
A few minutes before Joe’s reading, which commenced at 10:10 ET, ESMs and stocks rolled over.  Joe requested that the US, EU, and G-7 revoke Russia’s ‘most favored nation’ trading status. The revocation of Russia’s ‘most favored nation’ trading status is largely symbolic.  Russia’s main exports are oil, natural gas, and commodities.  Joe asserted, “Russia will pay a severe price it uses chemical weapons.”
 
Biden welcomed Ukrainian refugees and said, “We will not fight a direct war against Russia in Ukraine.”
 
After The Big Guy’s brief appearance, ESMs and stocks sank to new NYSE session lows.  The NY Fang+ Index hit -2.6% and Nasdaq was -1.0% at the European close.  Old World traders did not want to hold long equity positions over the weekend.  ESMs and stocks formed a bottom at 11:42 ET. 
 
At 11:42 ET, Ukraine FM Kubela, appearing on Bloomberg TV, stated, “Zero progress in talks… hard for me to understand what kind of progress President Putin is referring to.”  Kubela said Russia’s position changes all the time.  He said Ukraine’s neutrality must be accompanied by security guarantees.
 
After a modest rally attempt, ESMs and stocks sank to new lows at midday.
 
Biden spoke at the Dem Caucus in Philadelphia on Friday at midday – and blatantly lied repeatedly.
 
@disclosetv: Biden on Russia’s stock market: “The moment it opens, it will be disbanded.  Ya hear me? It will blow up.”   https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1502344128050380803
 
@nexta_tv: Biden says the U.S. will respond to any move by Russia that threatens NATOeven if it leads to world war.
 
@charliespiering: “Democrats didn’t cause this problem. Vladimir Putin did,” says Biden about inflation.
BIDEN: “I’m sick of this stuff … The American people think the reason for inflation is the government spending more money. Simply. Not. True.”
   
RNCResearch: “Make no mistake, inflation is largely the fault of Putin,” Biden says. Except inflation has been soaring above 5% since last May.  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1502346668615811080
 
ABC’s Jonathan Karl: “If you look at the numbers, inflation really started to rise almost exactly when Biden came in the White House.” https://t.co/IMOyblgoC3
 
@Breaking911: BIDEN: “The oil companies and the executives, they don’t want to pump more oil, although they have every capacity to do so. Nothing is slowing them up.
https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1502357490729725952
 
Democrats unveil plan to issue quarterly checks to Americans by taxing oil companies posting huge profits  https://www.businessinsider.com/dems-plan-checks-americans-tax-oil-companies-profits-2022-3 @bennyjohnson: (GOP Sen.) CRUZ: “I understand that the White House’s talking points are written by an 18 yr. old intern who’s taking freshman socialism but it would be good to have someone who has actually worked in the private sector & has some awareness of how energy is produced”
https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1501990696659607553
 
Biden administration concerns about CLIMATE CHANGE hampered plans to send more natural gas to European countries so they wouldn’t have to rely on Putin’s resources
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10599483/U-S-push-export-LNG-amid-Ukraine-conflict-slowed-climate-concerns-sources.html
 
@RNCResearch: REPORTER: “How long should Americans expect — how long should we be bracing for — this historic inflation and some unprecedented gas prices?” KAMALA HARRIS: ……………
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1502301540962476032
 
Washington Post op-ed argues Democrats ‘appear to be in denial’ about inflation https://t.co/166NmggLGD
 
Biden, Democrats Lose Ground on Key Issues, WSJ Poll Finds – The president’s handling of the Russia-Ukraine crisis hasn’t boosted his overall approval rating as voters worry about inflation
    57% of voters remained unhappy with Mr. Biden’s job performance… Just 42% said they approved of Mr. Biden’s performance in office, which was virtually unchanged from the previous Journal poll in mid-November… (Extremely rare for a president to not get a big boost in rating when global conflict appears.)
    A majority of voters, 63%, said they disapproved of Mr. Biden’s handling of rising costs, the president’s worst rating on six policy issues surveyed in the poll…
    Underscoring the political problem for Democrats: More voters said that Republicans had a better plan to improve the economy, 45% to 37%… (WSJ/NBC polls historically are biased toward Dems)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/wsj-poll-biden-ukraine-inflation-midterms-11646975533?mod=hp_lead_pos6
 
@thehill: @SpeakerPelosi: “When we’re having this discussion, it’s important to dispel some of those who say, well it’s the government spending. No, it isn’t. The government spending is doing the exact reverse, reducing the national debt. It is not inflationary.” (To reiterate, ‘tis why the US is in deep Schiff!)
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1502449544797192192
    @KurtSchlichter: Once again the eternal question. Are they stupid or do they think we are stupid?
 
JPMorgan Is Biggest Counterparty for Nickel Tycoon’s Short Bests
Bloomberg reported earlier this week that Tsingshan has secured credit promises from banks including JPMorgan that could allow it to avoid defaulting on its margin calls…
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/jpmorgan-is-the-biggest-counterparty-for-nickel-tycoon-s-short-bets-1.1736403
 
MarketWatch: Goldman cuts U.S. GDP forecast to a full point below consensus, as it says recession odds are as high as 35%.
 
Recession Risks Are Piling Up and Investors Need to Get Ready
“Over time, the three biggest factors that tend to drive the U.S. economy into a recession are an inverted yield curve, some kind of commodity price shock or Fed tightening,” mentioned Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research. “Right now, there appears to be potential for all three to happen at the same time.”…  https://www.pehalnews.in/recession-risks-are-piling-up-and-investors-need-to-get-ready/1748821/
 
BBG: U.S. T-Bond Positioning Turns Net Long; Largest Net Longs Since March 2018 – CFTC
 
We warned last week that bonds are an extremely dangerous vehicle because too many people are buying them on recession angst and as a haven from European distress – but inflation is roaring.
 
St. Louis Fed chart: Purchasing Power of the Consumer Dollar in U.S. City Avg. (worse than 2008)
https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1502628251583365131
 
@TuckerCarlson: After 2008, the Fed dropped interest rates to zero and began printing money. This was supposed to save our economy. But it didn’t end. It went on to the present day, nearly 14 years. And in the process, what was designed to save us, destroyed us.
https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1502469351139680259
 
‘After This War Is Over, Money Will Never Be the Same’ – Zoltan Pozsar
Pozsar argues Bretton Woods II crumbled when the G7 countries seized Russia’s foreign exchange reserves. Keeping money inside financial institutions like the IMF was considered risk free. That is clearly no longer the case.
    Bretton Woods I collapsed when Nixon took the US of the gold standard back in 1971 when dollars were convertible to gold at a fixed exchange rate of $35 an ounce…
    “We are witnessing the birth of Bretton Woods III – a new world (monetary) order centered around commodity-based currencies in the East that will likely weaken the Eurodollar system and also contribute to inflationary forces in the West.”  China, Pozsar says, will have two ways of protecting its interests – either selling Treasury bonds to buy Russian commodities, or doing its own quantitative easing, for example, printing renminbi to buy Russian commodities. Pozsar expects both scenarios will mean higher bond yields and higher inflation in the West… https://www.forbes.com/sites/danrunkevicius/2022/03/10/after-this-war-is-over-money-will-never-be-the-same-what-credit-suisses-shocking-prediction-means-for-bitcoin-and-crypto-prices/
 
China Locks Down Technology Hub Shenzhen as Covid Cases Jump
China placed the 17.5 million residents of the southern city of Shenzhen into lockdown for at least week, seeking to halt a growing Covid-19 outbreak with a move that could cause disruption and production delays in the key technology hub and port (More supply-chain problems; more inflation!)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-places-tech-hub-shenzhen-151452380.html
 
China’s COVID cases more than triple to highest point in two years https://t.co/rwsAaDr0tq
 
This week may test whether Russia plans to repay its international debt and will likely see the Federal Reserve raise interest rates for the first time since 2018 https://t.co/CypEhM7V2F
 
This is a critical week for Ukraine.  The besieged nation must be able to hold out until new weapons and supplies are procured.  Putin knows this; so, he will be desperately ruthless in his attacks.  Also, the US leak to the FT that Russia has requested help from China is an explicit admission that the Russian military complex is weak.  This will embarrass and infuriate Putin, Russian generals and solons.
 
Some good news: Deputy Secretary of State says Russia is showing signs of interest in Ukraine talks
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/russia-shows-signs-of-interest-in-ukraine-talks-says-u-s-official-2
 
Kyiv to hold video-conference talks with Moscow on Monday – AFP
 
Reuters: Ukrainian officials negotiating with their Russian counterparts are to ensure direct talks between the countries’ leaders that could lead to bringing peace, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said late on Sunday.
 
Today – This is expiry and FOMC week.  A mind-addling $3.3 trillion of March options will expire!  As noted above, this is a critical week for the Ukraine War.  Will a desperate Putin engage in horrific acts including the use of chemical weapons?  How will Biden respond to Putin, China, and Iran?  Putin’s missile attack on the military base in western Ukraine was a probe to gauge Joe’s stuff.  Will this ‘little corporal’ probe further this week?  What is Xi preparing to do given China’s increasingly aggressive and threatening rhetoric?  Will Xi risk isolation and debt deflation with China’s ginormous debt load?
 
As always, scrutinize SPY March options to see the titans’ disposition for the market.
 
VIX March options expire on Wednesday; but Tuesday is the last day of trading for VIX March options.
 
Friday King Report: 4200 is solid S&P 500 Index support; 4300 is resistance.  There is a lot of air in between these levels.  The S&P 500 high on Friday: 4291.01; low: 4200.49.
 
Last week, the DJIA suffered the dreaded ‘Death Cross’.  Its 50-day moving average fell below its 200-day moving average.  The S&P 500 Index 50-DMA is 9 points above its 200-DMA.
 
On Sunday night, the US 5-year note yield jumped above 2% for the first time since May 2019. @FrankGrimes_Jr: We live in a very troubling world…Where corruption and money are often the guiding principles. Listen to this. The Pfizer CEO saying he’s surprised “they” went with mRNA vaccine since so little was known   https://twitter.com/FrankGrimes_Jr/status/1502654041444298752
 
WHO says it advised Ukraine to destroy pathogens in health labs to prevent disease spread
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-who-says-it-advised-ukraine-destroy-pathogens-health-labs-prevent-2022-03-11/
 
@laralogan: List of Ukraine Biolabs removed by US Embassy – previously disclosed the locations/details of these labs in a series of PDF files online. On Feb 26 2022 the official embassy website shut down the links to all 15 bioweapon labs.  https://web.archive.org/web/2021051116
https://web.archive.org/web/20170130193016/https://photos.state.gov/libraries/ukraine/895/pdf/dtro-kharkiv-eng.pdf
 
Top American generals on three key lessons learned from Ukraine
“The computer models would have said Russia wins in 72 to 96 hours,”…
    “We often like to talk about amateurs study tactics and professionals study logistics, and we see that play out right before our eyes,” Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville said Tuesday…
     Kelly suggested that the Russian military is used to training on its own turf, where it can use its layers of air defense systems and other weapons to wear down an attacking force. It may not be practiced in operating in an environment where its own forces are disaggregated and it does not already have control over both ground terrain and the skies, which means Ukrainian defenders are operating from a playbook Moscow hasn’t seen before…
    The fight between Ukraine and Russia shows that older, less advanced tech can still make an impact against high-end threats.  McConville pointed to Ukraine’s success in using relatively inexpensive, Turkish-made TB2 Bayraktar drones to take out Russian tanks and other military vehicles without putting human pilots at risk… “We have to understand there’s a human component to fighting — a brutality. All the technology in the world allows them [Russia] to win, but it doesn’t replace the human.”
https://breakingdefense.com/2022/03/top-american-generals-on-three-key-lessons-learned-from-ukraine/
 
The White House Briefed TikTok Influencers to Prop Up Biden’s Handling of Ukraine
According to The Washington Post, the White House hosted a Zoom call on Thursday to push its messaging — which has included blaming Putin for inflation… to more than two-dozen TikTok stars. “Jen Psaki briefed the influencers about the United States’ strategic goals in the region and answered questions on distributing aid to Ukrainians, working with NATO and how the United States would react to a Russian use of nuclear weapons,” explained the Post’s report…  (Not a parody or SNL skit!) https://townhall.com/tipsheet/spencerbrown/2022/03/11/white-house-briefing-tiktok-influencers-while-world-burns-n2604443
 
Psaki tells TikTok influencers Russia ‘hacked our election’ in 2016
White House press secretary says Russia ‘of course, hacked our election here’
https://www.foxnews.com/tech/psaki-tells-tiktok-influencers-russia-hacked-election-2016
 
Buy the terms and standards of the MSM and Democrats, Biden Press Sec. Psaki is an insurrectionist and destroyer of democracy for questioning the validity of Trump’s 2016 victory.
 
Bill Maher Says It’s ‘Worth Asking’ Why Putin Didn’t Invade Ukraine Under Donald Trump ( If Trump was an agent of Putin) https://dailycaller.com/2022/03/12/bill-maher-ukraine-russia-war-trump-putin-video/
 
House Republicans demand answers from environmental groups over allegation of collusion with Russia – used by Russian President Vladimir Putin to make an impact on American energy production “Any action by President Putin, the Russian government, or Putin’s allies to undermine American energy security must be addressed.”…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-republicans-demand-answers-environmental-groups-collusion-russia
 
The Atlantic: On Top of Everything Else, Nuclear War Would Be a Climate Problem (Not a parody!)
Even a “minor” skirmish would wreck the planet.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/03/nuclear-war-would-ravage-the-planets-climate/627005/
 
GOP Rep. @mattgaetz: “An internal probe conducted by the FBI shows that agents violated their own rules at least 747 times in 18 months related to investigations involving politicians, candidates, religious groups, the news media and others.”   https://t.co/fVcW0soRw6
 
Michigan election official is charged with voter fraud and misconduct after she ‘purposely broke a seal on a ballot container’ https://t.co/yC9tKeVr65
 
A 4th dose of Covid-19 vaccine will be needed, Pfizer’s CEO says…
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/13/health/pfizer-vaccine-4th-dose/index.html
 
Pfizer Partnered with China’s Social Credit Score Platform In 2018, Admits Being ‘Proud To Stand With China Leaders.’   https://t.co/xGzTE4W3Hv
 
Fully vaccinated Barack Obama announced that he has Covid.
 
Be wary of the man who urges an action in which he himself incurs no risk.” — Lucius Annaeus Seneca



END

Let us close with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter interviewing David Morgan

Harvey Going to Get Bad, Really Bad – David MorganInboxGreg Hunter via aweber.com Sat, Mar 12, 4:00 PM (18 hours ago)to HarveyGoing to Get Bad, Really Bad – David Morgan | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdogGoing to Get Bad, Really Bad – David MorganBy Greg Hunter On March 12, 2022 In Market Analysis67 CommentsBy Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)Last year about this time, precious metals expert and financial writer David Morgan was warning about massive money printing and the so-called “everything bubble” popping.  Inflation is the pin, and it found the bloated debt bubble.  Now get ready for some pain as Morgan explains, “It’s going to get bad, and I mean really bad.  There is already mass starvation at the lower end of the economic scale in third world countries. . . . Prices are going to be untenable for many people, especially those in the middle class. When you get gasoline going up to the $5, $6, $7 range and you’ve got food going up to the level it’s gone up to and continues to go up to, it’s going to be bad.  I am focusing on real stuff, not the bond market or what the price of gold is going to do.  I am talking about day-to-day living. . . . When gasoline goes from $3.50 per gallon to $5.50 per gallon and you start doing the math on how much it takes to fill up your car and drive it back and forth to work every day, all of a sudden you’ve got diminishing returns.  Then factor in what your heating bills and what your grocery bill is going to be.  So, there is going to be a lot of people at the margin, and the margin keeps moving up.  It’s a few percent of the population.  Then it’s 10% and then 20% and so on.  When food gets to be 50% of your budget, then there are food riots.  That’s the trend . . . and I think we will get there. . . . We know the ‘Arab Spring’ was not about politics.  It was about food.  We are going to see ‘Arab Springs’ spring up all over the place because of food costs and availability.  You can have a lot of money and not be able to get food too.”It’s not just physical assets that are going to be affected, but the financial system too.  Morgan says, “What is all this going to do to the financial system?  It’s breaking, but it’s been broken for a long time.  We just have not seen the end result—yet.  I don’t think the bankers really thought this through all the way.  If you look at the way Russia is, they are a hardened people.  They are used to suffering.  They are used to standing in line for bread and potatoes.  They are not like other nations. . . . This is going to get uglier and uglier and harder and harder.  I do not think this is going to get resolved anytime soon.”What does Morgan see coming?  Morgan says, “There are going to be cyber-attacks, and they are going on right now.  There is going to be communication breakdown.  Number three, there are going to be consequences that nobody can see at this point.  And to reiterate, it’s a mess, and it’s going to get messier, and it’s not going to be resolved quickly.”Morgan see’s gold at $2,300 by the end of this year and silver near $40 per ounce.  In 2023, all bets are off, and Morgan contends you could see both metals way higher than they are now.  Morgan says, “Silver will outperform gold in the long run on a percentage basis. . . . Silver will outperform gold four to one.”  Morgan also says, “Demand for the metals from pensions funds and other big money managers is a “trend that is just getting started.”Morgan also talks about the importance of cash and what the signal will be to get out of the U.S. dollar.Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with David Morgan, publisher of “The Morgan Report” 3.12.22.(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)
https://usawatchdog.com/going-to-get-bad-really-bad-david-morgan/ 

Well that is all for today. I will see you TUESDAY night

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