I will be out for most of the day so today’s report will be relatively small. The comex data is accurate

save for the comex inventory movements which are not important. The 4 pm data will not be provided

and the data shown is yesterday. Also GLD and SLV inventory will b provided, plus closing gold and silver prices..

harvey.

May 3, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD; $1868.10 up $6.05

SILVER: $22.61up $0.04

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1863.30

SILVER: $22.56

Bitcoin morning price: $38,385 UP 52

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $38,333 DOWN 100

Platinum price: closing DOWN $11.50 to $937.95

Palladium price; closing DOWN $110.05 at $2210.70

END

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comex notices/ 6/8

EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: MAY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,861.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/02/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 05/04/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

657 H MORGAN STANLEY 2
661 C JP MORGAN 6
690 C ABN AMRO 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 1
905 C ADM 6

TOTAL: 8 8
MONTH TO DATE: 1,450

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR MAY CONTRACT 8 NOTICE(S) FOR 800 OZ (0.02488 TONNES)

total notices so far: 1450 contracts for 145,000. oz (4.510 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES:

1007 NOTICE(S) FILED 5.035,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 2759 : for 13,795,000 oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

END

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $6.05

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES FROM THE GLD.

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1092.23 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 47 CENTS

AT THE SLV// A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://A DEPOSIT OF .878 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 576.049 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1227 CONTRACTS TO 137,176 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.47 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.47) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT SOME SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 3313 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 30.170 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 370,000 OZ EFP JUMP TO LONDON//NEW STANDING 28.505 MILLION OZ/ // V) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS : —-xxx

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY:

TOTAL CONTACTS for 2 days, total 3621, contracts: 18.105 million oz OR 9.0525 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1810CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 18.105 MILLION OZ

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 18.105 MILLION OZ//

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1227 DESPITE OUR $0.47 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY., TODAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1885 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY. OF 30.170 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 370,000 MILLION OZ EFP TO LONDON//NEW STANDING 28.505 MILLION OZ// .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 3313 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 16.565 MILLION OZ DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE.

WE HAD 1007 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 5,035,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1106 CONTRACTS TO 560,166 AND CLOSER TO NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: –521 CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

THE SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $46.20//COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY /.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY AT 5.353 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE /FOLLOWED BY TODAY”S QUEUE JUMP OF 20,300 OZ//NEW STANDING 6.1866 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $46,20 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 3719 OI CONTRACTS (11.527 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 4825 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 560,166.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3719, WITH 1106 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4825 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3719 CONTRACTS OR 11.567 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4825) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1106,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 3719CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY. AT 5.353 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 20,300 OZ//NEW STANDING 6.1866 /// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //.,4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI. LOSS 5) HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

MAY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :

6561 CONTRACTS OR 656,100 OR 20.407 TONNES 2 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3281 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 20.407 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 20.407/3550 x 100% TONNES 0.574% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 20.41 TONNES INITIAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAY.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1227 CONTRACT OI TO 137,176 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 1885 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAY 1885 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1428 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1885 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 3112 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 9.679 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.47 IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

end

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 12.50 OR 06% /The Nikkei closed //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.47% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.6084 /Oil UP TO 103/82 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 106.47 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN // ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6064 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6821: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER/

a)NORTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1106 CONTRACTS TO 560,166 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $46.20 IN GOLD PRICING MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2844 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 4825 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 JUNE :4825 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4825 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 4240 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4825 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A TINY SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 585 CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF GOLD $46.20.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY (6.1866),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 6.1866 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL $46.20) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING QUITE ANY LONGS AS WE HAVE REGISTERED A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 13.188 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY (6.1866 TONNES)…

WE HAD 521 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3719 CONTRACTS OR 371900 OZ OR 11.517TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 97,601/// extremely poor

Confirmed volume yesterday:188,075 contracts poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAY ’22 COMEX GOLD //MAY 3

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	25,752.951 ozManfra801 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil
No of oz served (contracts) today	8 notice(s)800 OZ0.02488 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	539 contracts 53,900 oz1.6765 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	1450 notices145,000 OZ4.510 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

For today:

dealer deposits 0

total dealer deposit nil oz//

No dealer withdrawals

2 customer deposits

i) Into HSBC 48,226.500 oz (15,000) kilobars)

ii) Into JPMorgan: 64,334.151 oz (2001 kilobars)

1 customer withdrawals:

i) out of Brinks 200.02 oz

total withdrawal: 200.02 oz

ADJUSTMENTS: 3/ customer to dealer

i) Brinks 15,023.590 ox

ii) Manfra: 5693.190 oz

iii) 6172.992 oz (removed) jpmorgan//192 kilobars

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.

For the front month of MAY we have an oi of 547 contracts having GAINED 149 contracts

We had 54 notices filed on Monday, so we gained 203 contracts or 20,300 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of May.

June saw a loss of 6248 contracts down to 437,730 contracts

July has a gain of 2 OI to stand at 7

August has a gain of 5067 contracts up to 71,757 contracts

We had 54 notice(s) filed today for 5400 oz FOR THE MAY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 8 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 6 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2021. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1450) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (MAY 547 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 8 x 100 oz per contract equals 178,600 OZ OR 5.555 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of APRIL.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (1450) x 100 oz+ (547) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (8} x 100 oz} which equals 198,900 oz standing OR 6.1866 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of MAY.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 6.1866 TONNES (A STRONG STANDING FOR A MAY ( NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

263,958.054, oz JPM No 2 7.58 TONNES

1,063,208.634 oz pledged Brinks/27,96 TONNES

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o

Loomis: 32,840.423 oz

total pledged gold: 1,941,626,135 oz (1115,92 TONNES)

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 35,989.255.509 OZ (1119.42 TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 18,358,705.533 OZ (571.03 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,630,649.576 OZ (548.39 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,689023.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 487.99tonnes

END

MAY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//MAY 3

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	861,723.212 ozBrinksCNTManfra
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)	1007CONTRACT(S)5,035,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	617 contracts (3,085,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	2759 contracts 13,795,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 1 deposit into the dealer

i) Into Manfra 116,285.000 oz

total dealer deposits: 116,285.000 oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Brinks 44,630.990 oz

ii) Into JPMorgan: 1,153,260.600 oz

total deposit: 1,197,891.590 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 174.281 million oz/333.531 million =52.23% of comex

Comex withdrawals: 5

i) Out of CNT 690,254.295 oz

i1) Out of JPMorgan 585,046.500 oz

iii) Out of Delaware: 2173.500 oz

iv) Out of Int. Delaware 90,422.092

v) Out of Manfr: 44,630.990 oz

total withdrawal 1,413,527.377 oz oz

3 adjustments: customer to customer

i) Out of Brinks 24,023.900 oz

ii) Out of Manfra; 4999.659 oz

iii) 965.810 oz removed entire from customer Delaware

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 81.620 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 333.531 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MAY OI: 3949 HAVING LOST 154 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 80 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY

SO WE LOST 74 CONTRACTS THAT WE EFP’D TO LONDON (370,000 OZ) AS SILVER IS SCARCE OVER HERE.

JUNE HAD A GAIN OF 51 TO STAND AT 1852

JULY HAD A GAIN OF 1197 CONTRACTS UP TO 110,951 CONTRACTS.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 1007 for 5,035,000 oz

Comex volumes: 20,594// est. volume today// extremely poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 59,058 contracts ( fair )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3759 x 5,000 oz = 13,795,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (3949) and the number of notices served upon today 8 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the MAY./2021 contract month: 2759 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY (3949) – number of notices served upon today (1007) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month equates 28,505,000 oz. .

We lost 74 contracts or 370,000 will not stand for delivery at the comex as these guys were EFP’d to London

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $6.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A WITHDRAWL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1092.23

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.20: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1094.55 TONNES

APRIL 29/WITH GOLD UP $20.05/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1095,72 TONNES

APRIL 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.77 TONNES FROM THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1095.72 TONNES

APRIL 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.30//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.49 TONNES

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD UP $7.60//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.9 TONNES INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101.23 TONNES

APRIL 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.13 TONNES

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.13 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1106.74 TONNES

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT IF 6.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1106.74 TONNES

APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1100.36 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $11.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.44 TONNES

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.42 TONNES

APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $26.95: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 //A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1090.49 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP $7.70: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1088.75 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.30 TONNES

APRIL 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.68 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.30 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.98 TONNES

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $.70//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1091.73 TONNES

APRIL 1///WITH GOLD DOWN $19.00 : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1091.73 TONNES

MARCH 31/WITH GOLD UP $13.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD FROM MONDAY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES FROM THE GLD:INVENTORY RESTS AT 1091.44

MARCH 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.18 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.60 : A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.18 TONNES

MARCH 24/WITH GOLD UP $24.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.66 TONNES

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $15.75//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1083.60 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSITED INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1083.60 TONES

CLOSING INVENTORY FOR THE GLD//1092.23 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF.877 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 47 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 554,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.171 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 29//WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.725 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.308 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.725 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.385 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.033 MILLION OZ

APRIL 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.418 MILLION OZ

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.031 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.418 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS : STRANGE!! A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING DEPOSIT OF 3.508 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 581.449 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 21/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.941 MILLION OZ

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS : A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.955 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.941 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .461 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY…//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.986 MILLION OZ

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.771 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.447 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS : A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.355 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 569.676 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP 66 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 831,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS :NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 7/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS : A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.386 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESETS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 6.326 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY REST AT 564.966 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.302 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 558.647 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.171 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.345 MILLION OZ

MARCH 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.847 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 554.167 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 552.320 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.092 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 552.320 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

SLV FINAL INVENTORY FOR TODAY: 576.048 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

2.LAWRIE WILLIAMS//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James RICKARDS/

-END-

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

the big seller of USA treasuries have been the Japanese

(Bloomberg)

Biggest buyer of Treasuries outside U.S. is quietly selling billions

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-05-02 11:16Section: Daily Dispatches

By Michael Mackenzie and Chikako Mogi
Bloomberg News
Monday, May 2, 2022

In times of Treasury turmoil, the biggest investor outside American soil has historically lent a helping hand. Not this time round.

Japanese institutional managers — known for their legendary U.S. debt-buying sprees in recent decades — are now fueling the great bond selloff just as the Federal Reserve pares its $9 trillion balance sheet.

The latest data from BMO Capital Markets show the largest overseas holder of Treasuries has offloaded almost $60 billion over the past three months. While that may be small change relative to the Japan’s $1.3 trillion stockpile, the divestment threatens to grow.

That’s because the monetary path between the U.S. and the Asian nation is diverging even more, the yen is plumbing 20-year lows, and market volatility stateside is breaking out. All that is ramping up currency-hedging costs and completely offsetting the appeal of higher nominal U.S. yields, especially among large life insurers.

The upshot: Japanese accounts are contributing to the historic Treasury rout and may not return en masse until the benchmark 10-year yield trades firmly above 3%. In fact, near-zero-yielding bonds at home look ever-more appealing even as U.S. debt offers some of the highest rates in years. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-01/biggest-treasury-buyer-outside-u-s-quietly-offloads-billions

END

Kranzler, Turk, many others featured in USAGold’s ‘News & Views’ for May

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-05-02 11:54Section: Daily Dispatches

11:54a ET Monday, May 2, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

USAGold’s “News & Views” letter for May emphasizes recent comments from Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics and GoldMoney’s James Turk, but it is also full of a score of brief items of financial news and opinion. It’s posted in the clear here:

NV#1041MAY2022

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

Stating The Obvious!

Posted May 2nd, 2022 at 11:34 AM (CST) by Bill Holter & filed under Bill Holter.

For many years I have written articles with charts, graphs, data, etc. to connect dots and come to a conclusion. Many topics were complicated and we tried to simplify for the average reader to understand. Occasionally we wrote opinion pieces, but for the most part the articles contained proven facts that when accompanied by other factual data could lead to logical conclusions. This article could be considered an opinion piece as I do not care to footnote or prove anything I say. You can either believe I am correct or not. I write this because I would like to be on the record one last time. Let me start with the conclusion: our way of life is over! No matter who you are, how wealthy or connected, your life will change dramatically and will certainly become more difficult going forward. Interest rates have exploded on a percentage basis from the lows over the last couple of years (which had been in place for many years). Another way of saying this bluntly is that bond markets have crashed. Some will say “so what”, few understand. Credit has become THE foundation for both the financial system and real economy. The foundation used to be gold and silver, now it consists entirely of promises to pay. As interest rates rise and bond prices collapse, the “foundation” is being hollowed out.

Stocks have been hit pretty hard, even some of the “generals” that held the indices up for so many years are beginning to falter. We even have some indices like the Russell already making 52 week lows. We also see the sales volume in real estate beginning to dry up. In case you have forgotten, “price ALWAYS follows volume”. Mortgage rates were 2.75% just a year ago, now they are 5.4%, twice as high! If you have not made the connection, a doubling of interest rates basically means a halving of what someone’s income qualifies to borrow. In other words, for those who need to borrow to purchase real estate, their purchasing power just dropped 50%.

We were laughed at and maligned for many years and still somewhat today by those who refuse to pull their head out of their ass to see real world happenings. A short but devastating list of real world happenings where little to no debate is needed; inflation of nearly every single good or service we need to live, deflation of assets has already begun but most importantly of bond prices, we are on the cusp of WWIII as the west seems hell bent for conflict (to point at as the reason for economic and financial failure?), central banks and sovereign treasuries have destroyed their own balance sheets and own failed/failing paper or owe more than can ever be repaid, market liquidity at extremely low levels even though tens of trillions have been pumped into the system, moral and ethical decay as never seen before, work ethic has never been lower, knowledge of basic survival skills has become lost. Hell, a good part of the country cannot (or refuses to) define the difference between male and female!? It has gotten so bad that the current administration feels the need to establish a “ministry of truth” to silence (punish?) anyone with differing albeit truthful and realistic views.

Volatility in markets has exploded because liquidity seems to be drying up and credit more difficult to come by. If you are a student of history, then you’ll know that prior to every single market panic, volatility exploded before the event was understood by the vast majority. This is exactly where we are now in my opinion. Do we get a bounce from here? I do not know and will tell you it does not matter because this “credit cake” has already been baked and in the process of burning to a crisp! Of course, a .50 basis point rate hike by the Fed going into recession should solve ALL the problems?

To conclude, I believe you should either blissfully enjoy the precious little time left in fantasyland or, prepare for the sudden impact that is mathematically coming. In my mind, it is not if but when …and only a matter of how bad it will get? Do we go Mad Max? In late 2006, a Mad Max scenario was not an odds on favorite because society was not as fractured as it is today. Now that drag queen shows and so many other perversions are promoted by those paid by tax dollars to babysit our children, the fabric has already been torn. Not to mention the concerted efforts to cancel The Constitution of the United States? You can either believe the current fantasyland is normal and will continue throughout your lifetime, or you can believe that things real ..are, well, real? Maybe it would be easier to be ignorant and blissful? I guess it would be until it’s not? But then of course it is too late, I suppose you can always show up on your crazy friend’s/relative’s doorstep and hope they forgot you consistently called them an idiot and prepared enough for you both? It is here, it is now, and nothing you do will prevent it. Your only alternative is to do your best to prepare …NOW!

Standing a fearful watch,

Bill Holter

5.OTHER COMMODITIES PALM OIL

end

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL//DIAMONDS

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.6085

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.6821

HANG SANG CLOSED

2. Nikkei closed

3. Europe stocks ALL CLOSED MOSTLY GREEN

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 103.52/Euro RISES TO 1.0516

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.224/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 130.09/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: UP -SHORE CLOSED DOWN// OFF- SHORE DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.0.941%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 2.85% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 2.00%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.91: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.37

3j Gold at $1862.70 silver at: 22.68 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 70.96

3m oil into the 103 dollar handle for WTI and 106 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 130.09 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9757– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0257well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.965 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.015 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.89

Futures Slump As Fed’s Rate Hiking, QT-ing Meeting Begins

TUESDAY, MAY 03, 2022 – 07:51 AM

After initially trading higher, extending the momentum of yesterday’s last-hour meltup which saw US stocks close near session highs after plunging earlier, on Tuesday US futures hit an air pocket shortly after the European open, and slumped 0.5% at 715am EDT, as investors braced for more hawkish shocks from the Federal Reserve whose two-day meeting start today and is expected to announce its biggest rate hike since 2000. Tightening turmoil slammed bond markets: 10Y TSYs traded just below 3% after hitting the 4-year old milestone on Monday. Germany’s benchmark rate rose above 1% for the first time since 2015, while the corresponding yield on U.K. bonds climbed above 2% earlier on Tuesday. Australian bonds slid, and the currency jumped, after the nation’s central bank hiked rates costs by more than all economists had expected. The US dollar dipped, oil was lower while cryptos and gold traded flat.

In premarket, NXP Semiconductors rose with analysts lauding the company’s strong results and second- quarter revenue forecast driven by robust demand through a difficult three months, while Kellogg and Tyson were cut to underweight from neutral by Piper Sandler. Pfizer and Starbucks are among the many companies reporting earnings Tuesday. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

Pfizer (PFE) dropped 3% after the company reported Paxlovid revenue for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. The company’s covid-19 vaccine revenue $13.23 billion, estimate $10.6 billion
Nvidia (NVDA US) could be active after Morgan Stanley resumed coverage with a recommendation of equal- weight, citing concerns about deceleration in gaming and the company’s high valuation compared to peers.
Kellogg (K US) and Tyson (TSN US) were cut to underweight from neutral by Piper Sandler analyst Michael S. Lavery, who cites shifting consumer habits caused by inflation pressures and valuations that are ahead of their historical averages.
MGM Resorts International (MGM US) rose 1.3% in extended trading after reporting adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the consensus estimate. Analysts had been expecting the company to report an adjusted loss per share for the period, according to the average of projections compiled by Bloomberg.
Chegg (CHGG US) slumped 32% in extended trading after the online education company lowered its revenue and adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year.
Clorox Co. (CLX US) declined 2% in postmarket trading after the company lowered its outlook for full-year earnings amid stubbornly rising costs while reporting profit in its latest quarter that exceeded market expectations.
Expedia (EXPE US) shares gained 1.5% in extended trading, after the online travel agency reported its first-quarter results. Adjusted Ebitda came in ahead of expectations, and the company said it sees positive indicators for a strong recovery in leisure travel.
Alibaba (BABA) briefly dipped as much as 9.4% in Hong Kong, wiping off about $26 billion of market value, after a state broadcaster reported that authorities had imposed curbs on an individual surnamed Ma. Shares erased the majority of the losses after police reports indicated the accused person’s name was spelled differently to Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma

US stocks have started off May flattish after slumping in April as investors were worried about the Fed pursuing overly aggressive tightening to curb surging inflation. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson has warned that the S&P 500 will sink to at least 3,800 in the near term and may fall as low as 3,460, a drop of over 16% from Monday’s close. In contrast, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists say that the negativity in the U.S. stock market has become so overwhelming that a rebound may not be far off.

Markets are getting whipsawed between concerns around persistent inflationary spirals and risks to global growth from rising yields, China’s Covid lockdowns and Russia’s war in Ukraine. The Federal Reserve’s plans to raise rates and reduce its balance sheet have ended an era of cheap money and forced money managers to reassess valuations.

“The right strategy right now is to position for inflation — a clear and present fact — rather than recession, which is still only a possibility,” Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote clearly unwilling to admit the writing on the wall.

“Investors are already welcoming the prospect of new monetary measures from central banks to combat inflation,” said Pierre Veyret, technical analyst at ActivTrades, adding that “bull traders are buying the recent dips on stocks this morning after most markets fell back to their weekly low, with many betting on the anticipation of tightening monetary conditions to mitigate rising prices. It is likely that most investors have already priced in tomorrow’s FOMC meeting where a record half-point rate hike is widely expected.”

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index was little changed, erasing an earlier advance of as much as 0.8% which saw stocks bounce after a flash crash sent shares tumbling on Monday. Europe tracked declines for U.S. futures. Basic resources stocks lled the retreat in Europe, down 1.4%, real estate -1.2%; Energy outperforms, +1.9%; autos +1%, banks +0.9%. Here are the biggest European market movers:

BP shares rise as much as 3.7% after reporting first-quarter results that were received positively by analysts, who highlight the expanded share buyback and overall strong results.
BNP Paribas shares climbed Tuesday after the French lender reported what Jefferies called a “massive earnings beat” on strong revenue, with all subdivisions outpacing expectations.
Stellantis gains as much as 3.2% after the company said it will acquire the Share Now car-sharing joint venture formed by BMW and Mercedes- Benz, to tap new revenue streams.
ISS rises as much as 8%, the day’s biggest winner on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, after the cleaning company reported 1Q earnings that beat estimates and raised its FY outlook.
Electrolux rise the most in a month, after Kepler Cheuvreux raised its recommendation to buy from reduce, seeing a “buying opportunity” in a share where most negatives are already priced in.
Bayer climbs after Citi re-opens a positive catalyst watch on Bayer ahead of its 1Q earnings, which the broker expects to be ahead of guidance and consensus expectations.
Alstom also rises as much after Citi opens a positive catalyst watch ahead of the company’s full-year results on May 11, expecting Alstom to generate positive cash flow in 2H22.
Wizz Air gains as much as 4.4% in London after reporting monthly data traffic for April, with Goodbody noting the airline carried 3.62m passengers last month, up 6 times vs a year ago.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were mixed amid holiday-thinned trading, as investors braced for a potential increase in U.S. interest rates later this week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dipped as much as 0.5%, with markets including China, Japan, Singapore and India closed for holidays. Australian shares retreated after the Reserve Bank increased interest rates by more than economists anticipated and signaled further hikes. RBA Governor Lowe said he expects further interest rate increases will be necessary in the months ahead; does not preclude a bigger or smaller rate move in the future, and has an open mind on how fast rates need to increase, a more normal level of interest rate would be 2.50%.

“Once again the RBA has proven its ability to quickly pivot the policy direction,” wrote Kerry Craig, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, in a note. “A material slow-down in economic activity could see a reassessment of the path for policy normalization and there is a high degree of uncertainty.”

Hong Kong’s benchmark eked out a small gain as the city accelerated its reopening plans after Covid cases dropped. Hong Kong Chief Executive Lam said they will reopen bars in the second phase of easing COVID-19 restrictions on May 19th. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding pared losses after a brief bout of concern over the status of its co-founder Jack Ma triggered wild price swings, underscoring continued investor anxiety toward China’s tech sector. Investors are waiting for what could be the U.S. Federal Reserve’s biggest rate hike Wednesday since 2000, one of many central bank decisions this week. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 3% before the decision.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index eased 0.1% to trim Monday’s gain as the greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers. The Australian dollar led gains over G-10 pairs after the Reserve Bank raised rates 25 basis points, to 0.35%, defying expectations for a hike of 15 basis points and signaled more hikes to come to rein in inflation. The nation’s bonds tumbled and the 3-year yield rose above 3% for the first time since 2014. The euro fluctuated around $1.05 and European bonds underperformed Treasuries and peripheral spreads widened. German 10-year yields touched 1% for the first time since 2015, as markets brace for a faster pace of tightening from the ECB.The pound advanced while gilts tumbled, sending the 10-year yield surging above 2% for the first time since April 22 as they catch up with Monday’s bund and Treasury declines when U.K. markets were closed for a holiday.

In rates, the global bond rout deepened as traders take cues from Australia’s hawkish pivot ahead of the Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings later this week. German 10-year yield rose above 1% for the first time since 2015, subsequently drifting off the highs. U.S. 10-year yields stall again near 3% and 10-year gilts briefly rose to 2%.

Treasuries extended declines as trading kicked off Tuesday, driving the 10-year yield above 3% as investors braced for the Fed’s biggest interest-rate hike since 2000. The Treasury curve unwound Monday’s 2s10s steepening move with front-end yields cheaper on the day and belly to long-end yields slightly richer, following similar flattening in German curve. Treasury yields are cheaper by ~1bp at front-end of the curve, richer by 1bp-2bp from belly out to long-end, flattening 2s10s by ~3bp, 5s30s by ~1bp; 10-year around 2.96%, outperforming comparable bunds by 1bp, gilts by 8bp. Gilts reopen after Monday holiday, underperforming in catch-up to Monday’s Treasuries and bund declines. The Dollar issuance slate empty so far; five names priced $5b Monday with as many as seven others electing to stand down as conditions deteriorated.

In commodities, WTI and Brent were pressured on demand-side concerns as the COVID situation in China remains in focus and Beijing has asked residents not to leave the are unnecessarily. Currently, the benchmarks are holding marginally above session troughs of USD 103.41/bbl and USD 105.62/bbl respectively. Spot gold falls roughly $7 to trade above $1,855/oz. Most base metals are in the red.

Bitcoin is little changed in European trade, pivoting narrow parameters above the USD 38k mark.

Looking at today’s calendar, we’ll get PPI data from the Eurozone, German unemployment figures, and JOLTS and durable goods data from the US. It’s a heavy slate for earnings, with results due from Pfizer, Norsk Hydro, AMD, S&P Global, Airbnb, Estee Lauder, Starbucks, BP, BNP Paribas, Eaton, Deutsche Post, Marathon Petroleum, AIG, KKR, Hilton, DuPont, Teva, and Lyft.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 4,138.5
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 446.83
MXAP down 0.1% to 167.81
MXAPJ down 0.2% to 556.12
Nikkei down 0.1% to 26,818.53
Topix little changed at 1,898.35
Hang Seng Index little changed at 21,101.89
Shanghai Composite up 2.4% to 3,047.06
Sensex down 0.1% to 56,975.99
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 7,316.19
Kospi down 0.3% to 2,680.46
Brent Futures down 1.3% to $106.13/bbl
Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,852.78
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.22% to 103.51
German 10Y yield little changed at 0.99%
Euro little changed at $1.0512

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

Citigroup Inc.’s London trading desk was a behind a flash crash that sent shares across Europe tumbling on Monday, dealing a fresh setback to the bank’s years-long efforts to improve controls
Russia’s closely watched dollar payments on two bonds are moving ever closer to creditors as the country races to unblock the transfers and avoid a default. At least one international clearinghouse has received and processed payments for eurobonds due in 2022 and 2042, according to a person familiar with the transaction who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly on the matter
The RBA’s shift is a blow to Australia’s center-right government that’s trailing in opinion polls as campaigning intensifies for a May 21 ballot
South Korea’s inflation accelerated to the fastest pace since 2008 in April, prompting the central bank to issue a statement as pressure intensifies for it to raise interest rates further at this month’s policy meeting

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed and lacked direction amid key market closures and looming risk events. ASX 200 was subdued heading into the RBA meeting and was pressured after the central bank delivered a larger than expected hike to the Cash Rate Target which was lifted by 25bps to 0.35%. Hang Seng initially declined on return from an extended weekend amid heavy losses in tech including Alibaba on speculation its founder Jack Ma could be the individual mentioned in Chinese press surnamed Ma who was subjected to compulsory measures for collusion with anti-China hostile forces However, sources later denied that the person was Jack Ma which helped pare some of the losses, while the announcement of looser COVID restrictions in Hong Kong from May 19th also provided encouragement.

Top Asian News

Shares Up on Support Vow, Sales Slump Deepens: Evergrande Update
HSBC Shares Rise in Hong Kong as Top Holder Supports Split
Another Kakao Company Is Working on a Seoul Listing: ECM Watch
Hong Kong Wealth Fund Hit by $7 Billion Quarterly Loss

European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%, following late-door Wall St. upside; though, the FTSE 100 -0.5% lags as it catches up from Monday’s holiday.Stateside, futures are modestly firmer/flat on the session but have been rangebound throughout the European morning ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC. In Europe, sectors are primarily positive with Energy outperforming post-BP earnings and Banks supported on yield upside. US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will boost the size of its special unit devoted to investigating cryptocurrency frauds, according to WSJ.

Top European News

Ukraine Latest: Pope Francis Pushing for Direct Talks With Putin
Covestro Shares Plunge After Company Cuts Forecast
Morgan Stanley Overtakes Goldman to Lead in EMEA Equity Sales
Electrolux Up as Kepler Upgrades, Sees Negatives Priced In

FX:

RBA hikes in front of Fed to give Aussie a leg up vs Greenback and advantage over Kiwi that is labouring ahead of NZ jobs data; AUD/USD hovers around 0.7100, AUD/NZD probes 1.1050 from lows circa 100 pips below and NZD/USD pivots 0.6450.
DXY firm around 103.500 awaiting FOMC, with passing interest provided by US factory orders 103.930 is near term resistance, with some charts also citing 103.807 as a long term hurdle.
Sterling rebounds on return from long UK holiday weekend and in anticipation of another 25bp rate hike on super Thursday, Cable back above 1.2500 and EUR/GBP retreats from 0.8400+ again.
Euro clinging to 1.0500 against Buck with aid of higher EGB yields and some technical support, 10 year German cash touches 1% and EUR/USD underpinned by 1.0494 ascending trendline.
Yuan fends off another attack on 6.7000 vs Dollar and Won looking for boost from BoK following strong SK inflation data.

Fixed Income

Debt futures bounce from new long term lows in some cases; Bunds back over 153.00 vs 152.66, Gilts 117.75 from 117.39 and 10 year T-note 118-12+ vs 118-04+.
Benchmark yields touch or top psychological levels at 1%, 2% and 3% respectively before retracement.
Treasury curve re-flattens marginally on the eve of the Fed, 2/10 year -4 bp and 2/30 year in -5 bp.

Commodities:

WTI and Brent are pressured on demand-side concerns as the COVID situation in China remains in focus and Beijing has asked residents not to leave the are unnecessarily.
Currently, the benchmarks are holding marginally above session troughs of USD 103.41/bbl and USD 105.62/bbl respectively.
Spot gold is softer as yields continue to climb, but remains above USD 1950/oz as the USD struggles to derive traction.
Similarly to crude, base metals are impacted on demand-side concerns re. China’s COVID backdrop.

US Event Calendar

April Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 14.1m, prior 13.3m
10:00: March JOLTs Job Openings, est. 11.2m, prior 11.3m
10:00: March Factory Orders, est. 1.2%, prior -0.5%; Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 0.4%
- Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.8%, prior 0.8%; -Less Transportation, est. 1.1%, prior 1.1%
- Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 1.0%, prior 1.0%
- Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.2%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

We had a bank holiday here in the UK yesterday and for once an extra round of golf didn’t make me a pariah as when the twins were out all afternoon with mum on Sunday I did a surprise recording session with 6-year-old Maisie, putting her first ever self-penned song on record. She keeps on making up little songs in the car and l’d spotted a loop or two that I thought were quite good so I created a backing track and got her to sing it into my studio mic and then mixed it together with a video. We then surprised mum when she got home. Mum cried with joy, and I quickly booked in a season of golf competitions in the diary whilst she was overcome with emotion. In the unlikely event you’d like to see and hear it please see the link on my Bloomberg header or email me and I’ll send it to you.

Talking of the bank holiday, for those missing yesterday here are the brief highlights of what’s left in a busy week ahead. Tomorrow sees the FOMC decision, where a +50bp hike and the start of QT are expected. The Fed is followed on Thursday by the BoE who are expected to lift rates (+29.3bps are priced in). We also have US payrolls on Friday and 161 S&P 500 companies reporting through the week. On that, our equity team published their Q1 earnings takeaways so far late last week, link here. While the season has been noisy so far, the median beat has been solid at 6.2% despite some notable outliers dragging the average down to 2.6%, below historical average. However 81% of companies have beat consensus. Earnings growth is in line with historical norms at 11.3% YoY. Margins have remained near record highs despite input price pressures.

Price action on the first day of May rhymed with what we saw over April. US Treasury yields continued their march higher, with yields increasing above 3% on benchmarks from 5 to 30 years intraday during the New York session, ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC. Ten-year yields gained +4.7bps, closing at 2.98%, but as mentioned managed to breach 3% for the first time since 2018 at one point. Similar to the price action last week, the nominal figure masked divergence in the decomposition. Real yields gained +15.6bps ahead of the Fed’s anticipated QT announcement tomorrow, punching through to positive territory for the first time since March 2020’s whipsawing price action, closing at +0.15%. 10yr breakevens, thus narrowed -10.9bps to 2.83%. European sovereign yields trended in a similar direction, with bunds (+2.7bps) and OATs (+3.2bps) picking up ground at the 10yr point, with 10yr BTPs continuing their recent run of spread widening, climbing +5.8bps over bunds yesterday, to 189bps, their widest level in two years. This comes following fears on global growth taking hold, but also with the market revising its expectation toward an earlier exit of ECB accommodation. Indeed, our Europe economists changed their call last week, now expecting APP net purchases to finish in June, with liftoff following in July, with 100bps of hikes in 2022 now pencilled in. See the link for more details.

Stocks were broadly lower in Europe, catching down with a very poor US close on Friday, with the STOXX 600 pulling back -1.46% and every sector lower on the day. The DAX (-1.13%) managed to slightly outperform, while the CAC (-1.66%) fared slightly worse. Europe did survive a morning flash crash though caused by an erroneous trader entry. American stocks were saved from starting May the way they ended April with a late rally in New York, leaving the S&P 500 +0.57% higher. There was a clear divergence between underperforming defensives and outperforming cyclical stocks, as real estate (-2.55%), staples (-1.29%), utilities (-1.04%), and health care (-0.68%) were the four worst performing sectors, while communications (+2.43%), tech (+1.56%) and energy (+1.37%) led the rebound. The large intraday swing ensured the Vix stayed above 30 for another session, closing the day at 32.34pts.

Despite the strong showing from US energy stocks, brent crude oil also started the month lower, falling -1.61%. Again, the dollar index marched to its highest level since 2002, gaining +0.76% yesterday, meaning the index has gained at least +.50% in 6 of the last 7 sessions, and cleared +0.6% in 4 of those.

Overnight in Asia, the biggest news is just coming through as I type with the RBA hiking rates by 25bps, a bit more than expected. 2yr Aussie notes are up +11bps in the immediate aftermath and the Aussie Dollar is soaring. Elsewhere news of upcoming covid rules easing in Hong Kong is lifting the Hang Seng (+0.12%) with the KOSPI (+0.0%) unchanged while exchanges in Japan and China are closed for holidays. S&P 500 futures (+0.38%) are trading in positive territory.

On data yesterday, US ISM Manufacturing surprised to the downside in April, with the index realising at 55.4 versus expectations of 57.6. The survey responses were replete with examples of supply chain pressures still plaguing industry. The US PMI figure came in at 59.2, just missing the 59.7 expectations.

To the day ahead, we’ll get PPI data from the Eurozone, German unemployment figures, and JOLTS and durable goods data from the US. It’s a heavy slate for earnings, with results due from Pfizer, Norsk Hydro, AMD, S&P Global, Airbnb, Estee Lauder, Starbucks, BP, BNP Paribas, Eaton, Deutsche Post, Marathon Petroleum, AIG, KKR, Hilton, DuPont, Teva, and Lyft.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY NIGHT

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

END

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA//SHANGHAI/LOCKDOWNS/USA

Xi’s lockdowns will have a devastating effect on USA truckers this summer

(Fuller/Freightwaves)

Xi’s Lockdowns Will Pull The Rug Out From Under US Truckers This Summer

TUESDAY, MAY 03, 2022 – 05:00 AM

By Craig Fuller, CEO of FreightWaves

Whenever the trucking market slows, truck drivers look for someone to blame. Normally, a slowdown is just a function of supply and demand. The market has too much dispatchable capacity compared to the total number of loads on any given day.

This summer, the trucking market could have one of its steepest declines in recent years and there is an entity that deserves much of the blame – the Chinese Communist Party and its draconian and inhumane lockdowns.

While the motivations of the Chinese government are unclear, one thing is certain – anyone subjected to a Chinese state lockdown compares it to being imprisoned in their own homes. As seen in several widely shared media posts, the Chinese government has started to erect metal barricades to block people from leaving their homes, preventing passage even for food or medicine.

While Americans watch in horror as innocent Chinese citizens are caught up in an ill-conceived, reckless, or nefarious – take your pick – act by the Chinese Communist Party, there is little Americans can do about it. But like most geopolitical events these days, the lockdowns in Shanghai and other Chinese cities are also a supply chain story that will have a dramatic effect on domestic freight markets.

The recent slowdown in U.S. truckload markets is likely a precursor to a steeper decline in the coming weeks. The lockdowns in China were not a factor in slowing U.S. truckload volumes in February and March, as evidenced by record container imports at nearly all major U.S. ports.

But that shouldn’t give anyone comfort because the slowdown is about to hit U.S. ports – and the trucking companies that service them – in a dramatic way. FreightWaves estimates that container imports from China represent approximately 16% of U.S. truckload volumes and an even larger percentage of U.S. dry van truckloads. After all, nearly half of the containers that come into the United States originate in China.

The lockdowns in Shanghai began on April 2 and the lockdowns in Guangzhou began on April 11. As geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan described the situation on Twitter:

Beijing, which is the political capital of China, was expected to be spared the lockdowns by many analysts. This appears to be wishful thinking and Twitter lit up on April 24 with reports of Chinese state police starting to implement similar measures to those seen in the preparation for lockdowns in other cities.

The three largest cities in China are going to be removed from the world market. According to analysts, at least 40% of China’s GDP has been taken offline and this was before lockdowns began in Beijing. The vast majority of this GDP is directly related to global manufacturing. Removing it means removing the flow of containers from the world economy.

Container volumes from China to the United States started to fall on April 6. It hasn’t been a direct line down; more like a roller coaster. In the first 10 days, container volumes dropped by 31%. Volumes have since rebounded about halfway, to “just” a 16% drop. But according to FreightWaves SONAR’s volume booking forecast, volumes have started to drop once again and could fall to 50% of the April 6 number by May 9. This would be nearly the same level of a drop that China to U.S. exports saw during the Chinese New Year in 2022 and lower than any other point since July 2020.

Chinese ports are operating, but the bigger risk is with Chinese trucking operations. According to a report in Bloomberg, only 20% of Shanghai’s trucking capacity is operating. Trucking is a bigger part of the flow of containers in and out of the Chinese ports than in the United States. Over 75% of container volumes in China ports enter or exit on a truck, while in the U.S. both trucks and railroads move freight from our ports.

The loss of trucking capacity in China means that raw materials and components can’t get from the ports to factories and finished goods can’t leave the factories to the ports to be put on ships for export. The temporary blip (dead cat bounce) was likely containers that were already in the queue at the port prior to the lockdowns.

Since factories can’t receive new components or raw materials, they will also stop operating once their supplies are exhausted. Supply chains involve large webs of suppliers that are interconnected and just because one supplier is online does not mean that other suppliers are. Once they shut down, it will take much longer to bring them up to full productivity.

According to SONAR’s ocean intelligence dashboard, it currently takes 27 days for a vessel to travel from a Chinese port to a U.S. port. Since the volume of containers from China to the U.S. started its drop on April 6, it will likely be May 3 before U.S. ports experience a drop in volume.

It takes approximately 10 days to three weeks after a vessel arrives in the U.S. before the containers that traveled on board enter the domestic surface freight market. This would put a slowdown in trucking freight volumes related to Chinese imports between May 13 and May 24.

We have seen this play out before.

During the second half of Donald Trump’s presidency, the U.S. declared a trade war on Chinese imports. The first tariffs on Chinese goods were set at 10% and went into effect in December 2018. That was intended to be a shot across the bow and had little effect on import volumes. However, President Trump also threatened that if his demands for Chinese policy changes were not met, he would raise the tariffs to 25% by March 31, 2019.

Reacting to a threat that most importers and Chinese manufacturers thought had legitimacy, a surge of goods started to flow from China to the U.S. in what was described as a “pull-forward.”

The last of the “pull-forward” surge containers to leave Chinese ports was on April 7, 2019. SONAR’s Ocean TEU Volume Index of containers leaving Chinese ports to the U.S. dropped by 28% from April 8, 2019 to April 16, 2019.

The first signs of U.S. trucking volumes dropping took place 35 days after the drop in container volumes out of China. From May 9, 2019, to May 16, 2019, U.S. national contract truckload volumes (OTVI.USA) dropped by 6%.

In Asian import-heavy Los Angeles, the drop was much worse. Truckload volumes dropped by an astounding 28% from May 8, 2019 to May 16, 2019. The drop was so significant that I wrote my first article warning of the freight recession and stated that “Conditions for fleets are deteriorating and it will get bloody.”

The recent drop in container volumes is eerily similar to the one that took place in 2019.

The drop in 2019 started with the same speed and depth as the one we are currently facing. The trucking industry had just come through one of the hottest freight markets in history in 2018, with more new fleets entering the market than in any previous period in history.

The abrupt drops in container outflows from China in 2019 and 2022 happened almost exactly three years to the day, which means the freight market seasonal calendar was roughly identical and makes for easy comparables.

Since April 2019, maritime shipments from China to the U.S. have grown by 28%, while U.S. truckload volumes have increased by 24% in that same timeframe.

A slowdown in freight volumes from China in May 2022 will be more equitably distributed throughout the U.S. and less concentrated in Southern California, as compared to the 2019 slowdown.

Why? While Southern California’s ports are still the primary ports of entry for Chinese goods, recent port congestion has encouraged importers to shift volumes away from the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. This is showing up in SONAR’s truckload market share data (OTMS).

In April/May 2019, the Los Angeles and Ontario freight markets represented 7.69% of all U.S. contracted truckload shipments. Today, those two markets represent just 6.74%.

Watching daily market conditions will be critical to fleet operators in their search for headhaul markets. A headhaul market is a freight market in which there are more loads than dispatchable trucks. In SONAR, this map is updated daily and markets are shaded in blue. The deeper the blue, the better conditions for fleets.

We always coach trucking companies to go “blue to blue” to stay loaded, and since the data comes from tenders and not load board activity, it is far more accurate of current conditions in the market because it avoids “ghost loads” from brokers.

Eventually, the lockdowns will end and Chinese production will begin once again. However, the longer China stays offline, the longer it will take for production to ramp up. Supply chains don’t come online instantly.

And just how long it takes for the lockdowns to end and the supply chains to begin operating again is a guessing game. But there is reason to believe that the Chinese lockdowns are far from over.

FreightWaves’ Eric Kulisch reported on April 15, 2022, that BBVA suggested that the lockdowns in China could continue until June. If this prediction plays out, it will be a difficult summer for many U.S. trucking operators.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/EU

HUNGARY//SLOVAKIARUSSIA//EU//GAS PURCHASES

With a threat of a veto the EU now considers exemptions for Russian oi purchases by Hungary and Slovakia

(Paraskova/OilPrice.com)

EU Considers Exemptions As Hungary Threatens To Veto Russian Oil Ban

TUESDAY, MAY 03, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

As Hungary threatens to veto a European Union-wide ban on Russian energy products, the bloc is now considering exemptions for Hungary and Slovakia, or a longer timeframe for the two countries to reduce their heavy reliance on Russia.

Slovakia and Hungary have been among those EU members staunchly opposed to a ban on Russian oil due to their very high dependence on Russian imports. On Monday, a senior Hungarian government official said that Hungary could be ready to veto an EU embargo on Russian oil imports, Bloomberg reported.

Hungarian Cabinet Minister Gergely Gulyas told HirTV on Sunday that an EU-wide ban would require unanimity, and as such, “it makes no sense for the commission to propose sanctions affecting natural gas and crude oil that would restrict Hungarian procurements”.

“We’ve made it clear that we’ll never support,” Gulyas added.

An exemption or an extended period for Hungary – or Slovakia – could help overcome resistance, however.

The European Commission is currently discussing the sixth package of sanctions against Russia, and those sanctions are increasingly likely to include an embargo on Russian oil imports that would start by the end of this year. Slovakia and Hungary could be given exemptions or more time to find alternative supply, EU officials told Reuters on Monday, as the EU seeks a united front in sanctions against Russia.

Since the start of the Russian war in Ukraine, the EU has been split on a ban on Russian energy imports. The biggest European economy—Germany—has resisted an immediate oil embargo, saying an oil ban would plunge Germany, and Europe, into a deep recession. While Germany, Hungary, and Austria, as well as some other EU members, have opposed an immediate outright ban on Russian oil, Germany signaled last month that it could end its dependence on Russian oil and stop importing Moscow’s oil entirely by the end of this year. Germany has now reportedly dropped its opposition to a ban, if given time to procure alternatives.

Last week, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that a full embargo is now “manageable” for Germany and that the country hoped to find a replacement for Russian oil within days. According to Habeck, Germany is now “very, very close” to making a full Russian oil embargo a reality.

The shift in Germany’s position on a Russian oil embargo could encourage other still hesitant EU members to support a ban on Russian oil imports, analysts have said.

The EU energy ministers are meeting for emergency talks on Monday after Russia cut off natural gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria last week. Russia’s demand for ruble payments for gas and a united response to the move will top the agenda, but ministers are expected to discuss an oil embargo, too.

end

Hungary

Hungary Definitively Rejects Sanctions On Russian Oil & Gas: We’ll Get Supplies “Without Interruption”

TUESDAY, MAY 03, 2022 – 09:45 AM

As expected, Hungary announced Tuesday that it has shut the door on the possibility of signing on to EU oil and gas sanctions which would only mean hurting itself.

“Hungary will not support sanctions that would make Russian oil and gas shipments to Hungary impossible,” Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said in Tuesday statement. “Russian gas is supplied to Hungary without interruption,” he was quoted as saying.

According to Reuters, “Speaking in Kazakhstan, Szijjarto said Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline accounted for about 65% of the oil Hungary needed and there were no alternative supply routes that could replace that.”

Last month one European diplomat speaking to Politico summed up the situation nicely: “Oil is finally looking doable for Germany,” but it remains “now we have a Hungary problem.” This as Viktor Orbán emerged as the biggest roadblock to EU consensus on seeking to starve Putin’s war machine in Ukraine by blocking Russian oil and gas.

But Orbán has for weeks made clear this is a “red line” as banning Russian energy imports would “kill Hungary.”

This past Sunday Hungarian Cabinet Minister Gergely Gulyas told HirTV that an EU-wide ban requires unanimity, and so “it makes no sense for the commission to propose sanctions affecting natural gas and crude oil that would restrict Hungarian procurements”.

“We’ve made it clear that we’ll never support,” Gulyas stressed. Meanwhile, in very curious timing – or rather, perhaps very obvious timing…

As Tsvetana Paraskova for OilPrice.comreviewed earlier, The European Commission is currently discussing the sixth package of sanctions against Russia, and those sanctions are increasingly likely to include an embargo on Russian oil imports that would start by the end of this year. Slovakia and Hungary could be given exemptions or more time to find alternative supply, EU officials told Reuters on Monday, as the EU seeks a united front in sanctions against Russia.

The shift in Germany’s position on a Russian oil embargo could encourage other still hesitant EU members to support a ban on Russian oil imports, analysts have said.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA

Russia ramps up fiscal spending to counter the economic blowback from the Ukraine war

(zerohedge)

Russia Ramps Up Fiscal Spending To Blunt Economic Blowback From Ukraine War

TUESDAY, MAY 03, 2022 – 05:45 AM

Now that Emmanuel Macron has been ensconced in the Elysees Palace for another five years, Europe is moving to ‘punish’ Moscow (and its own people) by trying to wean the Continent off of Russian natural gas and oil (something that’s easier said than done). But in defiance of the threatened cash crunch, the Russian government is taking some cues from West: to wit, the Kremlin has assembled an economic relief package worth tens of billions of dollars to help shield the country’s people, and its businesses, from the impact of sanctions.

According to WSJ, since the start of the invasion, Putin has ordered several rounds of emergency increases in payments to pensioners, state workers and the indigent and needy to compensate for the surging inflation that has battered Russia’s economy.

He has also backed state-subsidized loans to companies battered by sanctions, providing a lifeline to factories that have halted production because of a lack of imported components – especially microprocessors and chips.

So far, the impact on Russia’s finances has been less intense than many probably had anticipated. During the first full month of the conflict, Russian federal government spending climbed 37% from the prior year, driven mostly by the cost of the war.

But to help offset these rising costs, oil and gas revenues more than doubled in ruble terms over the same period, nearly compensating for the entire increase in spending.

“The Russian government has plenty of money, because it gets a huge amount of income from oil and gas, which are at very high prices,” said Natalia Zubarevich, a Moscow-based economist. “It has enough money for both defense and supporting the population.”

So far at least, Russian authorities haven’t provided a total price tag for the relief efforts or detailed how the money will be spent. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said last month that the initial anti-crisis measures would cost more than 2.5 trillion rubles, or $35 billion, once both spending and tax breaks are factored in.

Another top official, First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, has said that the authorities could provide up to 8 trillion rubles (or $112 billion) of credit to support the economy, chiefly through subsidized mortgages and business loans.

Thanks to its sovereign wealth fund, Russia has plenty of buffer capital in reserve (despite the West’s decision to seize hundreds of billions of foreign reserves belonging to Russia’s central bank).

As one Twitter user pointed out, even after all these expenditures, Russia’s fiscal position will still be more solid than that of the US:

END

UKRAINE/MARIUPOL

Final Showdown For Azovstal: Firefights Break Out As Azov Fighters Briefly Emerge From Steel Plant

TUESDAY, MAY 03, 2022 – 10:33 AM

Fierce fighting broke out Tuesday in the largely Russian-controlled southeast city of Mariupol, where for nearly two months some 2,000 Ukrainian Azov fighters and up to hundreds of civilians have been holed up in the gigantic and cavernous Azovstal steel plant, completely surrounded by Russian forces.

After repeatedly demanding the Azov militants lay down their arms and come out, it’s believed to be only a matter of time before a final battle, given those trapped inside and underground are said to be running low on food and water, and also crucial ammo.

Ukrainian officials say the site was shelled by Russian forces all night long, with fresh reports from RIA saying that Azov fighters took up firing positions before Russia returned fire. Things had been relatively calm and at a stalemate leading up to this new burst in fighting.

Has the final showdown for Azovstal begun? A Russian Defense Ministry spokesperson described…

“They have left the bunkers and assumed defensive positions on the territory of the plant. Currently, the DPR troops and the Russian armed forces are starting to destroy those positions with artillery and aviation,” Astafiev said.

CNN observes that “Video from the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol shows thick columns of smoke rising from the area of the Azovstal steel plant amid the sound of heavy explosions.”

An commander with the neo-Nazi Azov regiment told CNN, “Since the morning, the enemy has been trying to assault the Azovstal plant with significant forces using armored vehicles. Our soldiers bravely repel all attacks” – and confirmed that Azovstal “is now being assaulted.”

After multiple agreed-to pauses over the past weeks to allow for evacuation of civilians from the plant, Ukrainian forces say that about 200 civilians remain at the plant, among them some 20 children.

The last major evacuation was Sunday, when about 100 civilians exited the complex under watch of Russian soldiers, in a momentary ceasefire brokered by the UN and Red Cross.

Despite what appears to be increasing desperation on the part of the Ukrainian fighters stuck inside and surrounded, the standoff could still last days, or even weeks more, depending on how much in the way of supplies they have, including ammo.

The desperation was captured in the following fresh CNN interview:

Fighters inside the besieged plant are “sharing water and food” with civilians – but time is running out, the deputy commander of the Ukrainian Azov Regiment, Svyatoslav Palamar, told CNN on Monday evening.
“We are extremely short on supplies in terms of water and food. I cannot tell you for sure how much is left… but I can assure you that we are saving, very fearful without water and food, and especially ammunition,” Palamar, who is inside the plant, said.

He added: “If (worse) comes to worst and we run out of food, we’ll be catching birds and we’ll be doing everything just to stand firm

END

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE/

Dr Paul Alexander…news reports!!

Alexander Aggregated COVID and non-COVID news Watch, May 2nd 2022

Dr. Paul AlexanderMay 3

MUST KNOWs PRIORITY 1 news (COVID and non-COVID related):

1)Supreme Court has voted to overturn abortion rights, draft opinion shows

2)Here we go again: California coronavirus cases rising. Is a new wave coming?

3)Cardiologist Estimates 30 Percent of U.S. Pilots May Have COVID Jab-Induced Heart Conditions

4)Hunter Biden To Receive $50K Per Month Salary For Seat On Disinformation Governance Board

5)Warren Buffett gives his most expansive explanation for why he doesn’t believe in bitcoin

6)‘Deep State’ Was Working Against Trump on COVID-19 Response: Paul Alexander

7)How Threat-Free Are Americans from COVID-19? Late April 2022 Update

8)Sanitation, Nutrition Better Than Vaccines at Protecting Children From Disease, Study Shows

9)Parents Sue After School Allegedly Bullied Son to Suicide by Shaming Him for Being Unvaxxed

10)NYC Raises COVID Alert Level as New Cases Surpass Key Threshold; Manhattan Fuels Jump

11)COVID-19: Omicron variant did not wipe out Delta, it could return – study; While the Delta virus wiped out the variants that preceded it, Omicron has not eliminated Delta, according to a new study from Israel’s Ben-Gurion University of the Negev.

12)I am headed back into the woods: ‘It Will Kill and Subjugate Women’ – Hillary Clinton FUMES After News Breaks of Leaked Draft Showing Supreme Court Set to Strike Down Roe v Wade

13)Project Veritas: Government Insider Reveals Suspected Known Terrorists Walk Freely in US After Biden’s Afghanistan Withdrawal

PRIORITY 2 news (COVID and non- COVID related)

1)Paxlovid can be dangerous, interactions with other drugs

2)Is China preparing to invade Taiwan? Beijing orders officials to find ways to protect the nation from western sanctions like those used against Russia

3)Tucker’s Trumpism over Trump: What to Know About Tucker Carlson’s Rise

4)MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell Rejoins Twitter, Suspended Again Hours Later

5)Biggest Lie in World History: There Never Was A Pandemic. The Data Base is Flawed. The Covid Mandates including the Vaccine are Invalid

6)WATCH: Reporter speaks about breaking story on Supreme Court leak on abortion rights

7)Dershowitz on Leaked SCOTUS Roe v Wade Opinion: “I Believe this Was Leaked by a Liberal Law Clerk Who Was Trying to Change the Outcome of the Case” (VIDEO)

PRIORITY 3 News (COVID and non- COVID related):

1)Israel Erupts After Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov Claims Hitler Had Jewish Blood

2)The long and gruesome history of people trying to live forever

3)Elon Musk Tells Rep. Ocasio-Cortez ‘Stop Hitting on Me’ After She Takes Swipe at Billionaire on Twitter

4)Biden’s Gambit: Actively Testing Americans’ Willingness to Assert Their Rights

5)The Covid-19 Crisis, Justin Trudeau, The Freedom Convoy and “The Emergency Act” Fiasco

COVID research:

1)A majority of uninfected adults show preexisting antibody reactivity against SARS-CoV-2

2)Association between vaccine preventable diseases in children and improved sanitation following a nationwide sanitation campaign in India: an ecological analysis

end

Increase in Reactivated Viruses Following COVID-19 Booster Shots: Dr. Richard Urso

ByAmerican Faith

3 days ago

Some viruses, after initial infection, remain latent in the body for a lifetime and may reactivate to cause infection again or a different condition. These kinds of latent viruses are being reactivated in a large number of people following their booster COVID-19 shots, causing symptoms of long COVID and other health conditions, according to Dr. Richard Urso.

Long COVID is a condition where people experience ongoing, recurring, or new health problems weeks to months after first being infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, or receiving a COVID-19 injection. Symptoms may include brain fog, fatigue, chest pain, and insomnia, among others.

“So in my clinic right now, I am seeing three to five people a week because they know that I am taking a lot of time in my practice to do COVID, and they’re coming to see me with long COVID and … with problems after the vaccine,” Urso, an ophthalmologist, a drug design and treatment specialist, and co-founder of the International Alliance of Physicians and Medical Scientists, told EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders” program. “And what I’m finding is a huge number of them have reactivated Epstein-Barr, herpes simplex, herpes zoster, CMV.”

Of the more than 100 species of herpesviruses, eight are known to infect humans and remain in the body for life after the primary infection has cleared, and which can reactivate later under certain conditions:

· Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is a common virus that causes infectious mononucleosis and is associated with several types of cancer and multiple sclerosis. It is estimated that more than 90 percent of healthy adults have been infected at some point in their lives.

· Varicella-zoster virus is another common virus that primarily causes chickenpox and when reactivated, causes shingles in adults.

· Herpes simplex virus types 1 and 2 cause oral and/or genital herpes, and it is estimated that 67 percent (3.7 billion) people worldwide under the age of 50 are infected with herpes simplex virus 1, whereas 13 percent (491 million) globally have herpes simplex 2.

· Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a common virus that infects people of all ages causing symptoms of fever, sore throat, swollen glands, and fatigue. It can also occasionally cause mononucleosis or hepatitis.

· Human herpesvirus-6 and Human herpesvirus-7 cause roseola, a mild infection that mainly occurs in children between the ages of 6 months to 2 years.

· Kaposi’s sarcoma-associated herpesvirus infects the endothelial cells (that line lymphatic and blood vessels) which can become cancerous, a disease known as Kaposi’s sarcoma.

Most people are unaware that they’ve been infected with some of these viruses as they experience no symptoms.

“A lot of people are looking at this long COVID as if it’s all viral related problems, specifically to the spike protein or to other issues. They don’t know that we’re seeing this huge reactivation in the herpesvirus family and we have treatment for it. It’s been working really really well,” Urso said.

While there is still no standard clinical definition or treatment for Long COVID, Urso says that there are many different repurposed drugs doctors can prescribe off-label to treat the syndrome, such as those used in the I-RECOVER protocol, developed by The Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance.

For long COVID symptoms caused by one of the reactivated herpesviruses, Urso says he prescribes Valtrex and supplements like lysine and vitamin D.

“We use lysine because it’s one of those nutritionals that’s good against the herpesvirus family. The ratio of lysine-arginine seems to impact the ability of these viruses to replicate,” Urso said.

He added, “I tell people vitamin D is your data analyst. It allows the immune system to make good decisions … And when vitamin D is around, your immune system can recognize, ‘Oh, this is pollen, let’s leave it alone. Let’s attack this pathogen, let’s attack this cancer.’”

Urso said he’s been recommending vitamin D since 1995 when he was the chief of orbital oncology at MD Anderson Cancer Center. He came upon a study that showed the supplement “had some impact on a tumor recognition protein” and began to test all of his patients’ vitamin D levels.

“Virtually 100 percent of the patients were vitamin D deficient with cancer, colon cancer particularly, we became aware of it,” Urso said, adding that vitamin D has also been “amazing for allergies, it’s amazing for prevention, and resistance against cancer, particularly lymphomas and breast cancer.”

When the pandemic began, Urso said that he couldn’t stay quiet knowing that COVID-19 can be treated early with various repurposed drugs and “reluctantly started treating” patients as a result of other doctors refusing to prescribe early treatment.

“I told my patients if you have COVID, nobody is going to help you. I said, first go through the chain, [and] if no one’s going to help you, I’ll help you,” Urso said.

More than two years into the pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) continues to tell people to stay home unless they show “emergency warning signs” that include difficulty breathing, new confusion, and persistent chest pain or pressure.

The health agency only began recommending in January 2022 that individuals at high risk of developing severe disease should seek early treatment with one of the emergency authorized medications when they test positive for COVID-19.

Throughout the pandemic, the CDC has not recommended people to take vitamin D. Studies have shown that vitamin D can help prevent COVID-19, reduce admission to the intensive care unit, and significantly reduce mortality. A study from Israel found that people who were vitamin D deficient were 14 times more likely to have severe COVID-19.

Lipid nanoparticles (LPNs) are tiny particles made up of lipids or fat that act as a delivery system by encapsulating the mRNA that encodes the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein into the human cells.

Without the LPNs, the mRNA would degrade in a matter of seconds once injected into the arm.

Studies have found that the LPNs are not degrading and being eliminated from the body in the 36-hour time frame the FDA recently told The Epoch Times about, nor do they stay only at the injection site.

The Japanese regulatory agency’s biodistribution study (pdf) of the Pfizer vaccine showed that some of the mRNA moved from the injection site and through the bloodstream, and was found in various organs such as the liver, spleen, adrenal glands, and ovaries of rats 48 hours following injection.

“This is something that I would have known quite readily because I work with lipid nanoparticles,” Urso said. “I could have told you that lipid nanoparticles, I usually say, they need a door crack [to leave the injection site], whereas a virus needs an open door.”

Since a normal vaccine requires an “open door” to distribute to other parts of the body, Urso says, “a normal vaccine stays in the arm, pretty much 99.9 percent or 99 percent,” while “a large majority” of LPNs will not stay in the arm.

“In fact, we now know that a large part of it goes into the lymph node right underneath here, and is still making spike protein 60 days later,” Urso said, adding that the spike protein “is actually being found up to 15 months later, in monocytes and other cells, it’s not being degraded.”

Urso says that the persistence of spike protein in different parts of the body is interfering with the immune system’s normal functions and causing health problems.

“It’s blocking important tumor repairing genes called p53, it’s blocking BRCA [genes], it’s also messing with microRNA-27A, which is causing upticks in colon cancer cells,” Urso said.

Urso says that the presence of spikes and LPNs is also “messing with Toll-like receptors 7 and 8,” which are “important for immune surveillance for viruses.”

“So we’re going to see this huge uptick in all the viruses that lay kind of dormant in our body like herpesvirus family.”

/VACCINE IMPACT

4,113 Fetal Deaths in VAERS Following COVID-19 Vaccines Not Including Those Murdered Alive to Develop the Vaccines

May 2, 2022 3:53 pm

The U.S. Government’s Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) is now reporting 4,113 fetal deaths following COVID-19 vaccines for the past 17 months. By way of contrast, there were 2,239 recorded deaths of unborn babies in VAERS for the 30 years (360 months) prior to the authorizations of the COVID-19 vaccines in December of 2020, following all FDA-approved vaccines combined during that time period. Postmarketing reports from Pfizer that the FDA was forced by a court order to release at the beginning of April show that Pfizer had plenty of data to show how dangerous their COVID-19 vaccine was to pregnant and nursing mothers, and yet the FDA approved it anyway. A former employee of Pfizer has come forward to report on the dangers of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine to pregnant women and unborn children, saying they are too dangerous, even though the FDA and CDC will not reveal these facts, and another doctor who is seeing the effects of COVID-19 vaccines on pregnant women was interviewed by the Epoch Times. Not only are unborn babies being killed in the womb of their mothers who took a COVID-19 vaccine, these unborn children are sacrificed to the vaccine cult to actually make the vaccines. In an interview between Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Dr. Theresa Deisher conducted back in 2020 regarding the use of human fetal tissue to culture viruses for vaccines, Dr. Deisher stated: “And you know what’s really alarming is the lack of outcry over human babies born alive at five to six months old so that their hearts can be obtained beating. And they have to be beating to be used in the research that’s being done. If the heart has stopped beating, it’s not useful. You cannot use it. And so these babies are delivered alive, and their hearts cut out without anesthesia.”

Michael Every

Michael Every on the day’s most important topics

Rabobank: A, B, Sea

BY TYLER DURDEN

TUESDAY, MAY 03, 2022 – 10:50 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

So, what did you miss if you were out for May Day? How about a flash crash in Swedish stocks; US stocks tumbling again, then staging a big rally at the end of the session; US Treasury yields up, with 10s +5bp and moving above 3% for a while; swings in oil prices and gas prices; gold down sharply; and CNH falling back to 6.67 again? Not bad for a Bank Holiday.

We also had Mortgage News Daily say if US fixed 30-year mortgage costs, which started 2022 at 3.29% and are now 5.55%, rise another 50bp, or home prices 5% more, or some combo of the two, then home affordability would be the worst on record. And that’s before we even get the first serious Fed hike this week, apparently opening the doors to many more to come this year alone. Yet given the cost of building a house is up in terms of materials and labor, it may be hard for prices to come down. That suggests a lot of new renters, and so higher rents, and so higher CPI due to how it is calculated, as covered before. Or, alternatively, a housing crash. Take your pick of outcomes. 2% CPI it does not say.

Meanwhile, on a very different topic, but also underlining how worrying the outlook is, perma-China-bull Stephen Roach just admitted in an interview that when he listed Covid lockdowns, the property sector, and the Ukraine war as all presenting downside risks to China’s economic prospects in ‘Downside Risks to Global Growth’, that he should also have listed common prosperity and the crackdown on tech:

“I think they are a big deal. I really do… these twin actions of cracking down on internet platform companies, and income and wealth redistribution under the guise of common prosperity are big risk factors for potential Chinese economic growth over the next several years. They go right to the heart of the productivity leverage that China really needs right now to offset the demographic headwinds of a rapidly aging and, potentially shrinking, population.”

His reason for excluding them was that “I’ve written about them so much,” –I missed his take on Marxist-Leninist theory, did you?– and “because, I don’t know, this just goes back to my old Wall Street days, when you make a point, this is just a dumb marketing point, you like to have three reasons to support your point, not four…., but in all honesty, I should have put it in.” So, it was all ‘Wall Street thinking’, which sounds about right.

Roach also points out that suggestions the Chinese government will hand out unemployment support to migrant labour portends worrying things, as “the last time I recall seeing that was during, actually right before the global financial crisis, when there were significant layoffs of migrant workers as well. And I think that’s worrisome because this is an unusual development and speaks to labour market distress that is rarely captured by the official unemployment data in China. And so the fact that the government’s moving may be an indication that the supply chain and repercussions of rolling COVID shocks is more serious than we’ve been led to believe.”

Indeed, consider that in light of last week’s call from the WTO Director-General that attempts to reshore manufacturing activities “should be limited to critical sectors”, which sounds like intellectual defeat: and what is and isn’t “critical” is complicated, and highly integrated.

Roach also talks of his surprise at China’s “shockingly rigid decision-making process that is number one, incapable of admitting a mistake and number two, not being nimble enough to come up with a different strategy.” Critics would point out that this is *always* the tendency in closed rather than open systems, which the likes of Roach overlooked while championing them, despite ample evidence that just such a shift was occurring.

Notably, he adds, “I’m worried that my legacy of great access [to China] is about to be constricted when this new book gets published because it does say some rather tough things about China that I haven’t ever really said in a book or an article before. And your connections are as good as your point of view, and this book is likely to be unsettling in some respects.” More Wall Street thinking there; but I would argue that if a point of view is good enough then it doesn’t need connections. The opposite view clearly has not worked of late in Chinese markets anyway: you have flag-waved yourself off a cliff.

Indeed, Chinese authorities have just slapped “Compulsory Measures” on a person named Ma in Hangzhou, base of Alibaba and Ant Group. The unidentified person was apparently placed under ‘controls’ on 25 April after being accused of “inciting subversion of state power and other activities that endangered national security.”

Of course, this could be anyone called Ma, because it’s a very common surname. But it sounds a lot more like common prosperity coming for Jack Ma. If so, it comes four days after the latest promise not to crackdown on tech further. Expect Chinese markets to slump again and CNH to follow. Don’t expect Roach’s book to be on sale in China, or even for him to be visiting again.

Speaking of suddenly seeing the obvious once the tide has turned, we are also seeing more ‘Bretton Woods 3’ market calls of imminent supply-squeezes on key commodities via geopolitical and geographic choke points. This is true.

However, those who deal with physical commodities and logistics, i.e., trade commodity finance –rather than central-bank liquidity acronyms– have been aware of these issues for a long time. They know where the world’s steel plants are located; where neon comes from; who makes semiconductors where, and which consumer and military goods require them; and how food and agri supply-chains work in normal times and under various stresses. A sub-set also look at the institutional memory of mercantilism, and how free trade has collapsed or shifted in the past, e.g., WW1’s impact on global grain flows; barter, offset, and countertrade; what Hjalmar Schacht tried to do; and how COMECON did and didn’t work. Also remember when in January 2021 Xi Jinping said, “We should increase the dependence of international supply chains on China and establish powerful retaliatory and menacing capabilities against foreign powers that would try to cut supplies“?

Wall Street analysts have mostly ignored these issues for years because everything was about demand (or lack of it): now it’s about *supply*. Sorry, but that takes different expertise. One needs to have that deeper industry, and historic view, in order to ‘game’ this all out ahead, as opposed to relying on ‘Wall Street thinking’.

Yes, one can say, “commodity supply squeezes”, and that is true. But someone from the agri side can equally say “More QE eventually” and be an ‘equity expert’ – just one without any detailed breakdown of how these acronyms will work to get central-bank liquidity from A to B; and, of course, never to C, nor “to sea”, which is where central-banks and mercantilism DON’T meet yet, but I argue relevant history shows will do again soon.

Meanwhile, caught deep in the middle of all this, and yet blissfully unaware because of its focus on house prices, house prices, and house prices, is the RBA. They are the first central bank to meet this week, and the market expectation is they will hike rates 15bp to 0.25%.

END

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia//// NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA

AUSTRALIA

Rate hike larger than expected:

(zerohedge)

Australia Shocks With Bigger Than Expected Rate Hike, As Lowe Admits Embarrassment At Being So Wrong

TUESDAY, MAY 03, 2022 – 07:13 AM

In our preview of what was expected to be Australia’s first rate hike since 2010, we said that consensus expects a 15bps rate hike to 0.25%, with a handful of bank still expecting a hold (including CBA, Goldman and HSBC) and nobody expected a greater than 15bps rate hike. Well, everyone was wrong, because a few hours ago, Australia’s central bank – one of the developed world’s last remaining doves turned hawkish – and joined the global tightening bandwagon when it increased interest rates by more than any economists anticipated, rocking markets with a bigger-than-expected interest-rate hike in the middle of an election campaign and signaled further hikes to come, sending the currency and bond yields higher, while stocks slumped.

Abandoned his pledge of just two months ago to remain patient, Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe topped economists estimates by raising the cash rate 25 basis points to 0.35%, defying expectations for a hike of 15 basis points. It was the first time borrowing costs had been lifted in an election campaign in almost 15 years. That move and suggestions that more hikes will follow sent benchmark three-year bond yields soaring through 3% for the first time in eight years.

“The RBA managed to wrongfoot every forecaster and even the market — no one was braced for 25 basis points,” said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. Economists’ consensus was for a 15 basis-point hike.

Pouring gasoline on the hawkish case, the RBA forecast for 2022 is that headline inflation will accelerate to about 6% and core inflation will rise to around 4.75%. The RBA targets inflation of 2-3%. In response to a question about why the RBA had previously guided against rate hikes, Lowe said that “Inflation has surprised everyone on the upside.”

Lowe is now trying to recalibrate rate expectations following data last week that showed headline inflation surged to the highest level in more than two decades, while underlying price gains breached the top of the RBA’s 2-3% target.

“I expect that further increases in interest rates will be necessary over the months ahead,” the governor said in a press conference. “The board is not on a pre-set path and will be guided by the evidence and data.”

“Global central banks are stepping up and they are front-loading rate hikes so why shouldn’t the RBA, particularly when their policy is extremely accommodative,” said Su-Lin Ong, head of Australian economic and fixed-income strategy at Royal Bank of Canada.

Lowe also signaled a pressing need to get policy away from emergency settings. “The board is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure that inflation in Australia returns to target,” he said in a statement. “This will require a further lift in interest rates over the period ahead.”

Lowe conceded it was embarrassing that his previous forward guidance that rates would remain at a record-low until 2024 had proved so wrong. Markets and some economists have been forecasting since last year that the RBA would hike in 2022.

The RBA’s statement also provided key figures from its quarterly update of economic forecasts that will be released in full on Friday.

The central forecast for 2022 is headline inflation will accelerate to around 6% and core inflation to around 4.75%.
By mid-2024, headline and underlying inflation are forecast to have moderated to around 3%
Australian GDP is seen to grow by 4.25% over 2022 and 2% over 2023
Unemployment is predicted to decline to around 3.5% by early 2023, the lowest level in half a century

Also on the agenda Tuesday was the central bank’s plan for future bond maturities after it tripled its balance sheet to about A$650 billion to support the economy through the coronavirus pandemic.

The RBA decided against reinvesting the proceeds of bonds that mature in coming months, effectively embarking on a gradual quantitative tightening. The impact of the widely expected decision is likely to be minor over the next year as only a small number of bonds are due to mature.

In response to the surprise hike, Australian three-year yields jumped 19 basis points to breach 3% for the first time since 2014, while ten-year yields climbed to 3.39%. The currency rose as much as 1.4%, before giving up part of the gain to trade at 70.90 U.S. cents.

The benchmark stock index fell.

Interbank cash rate futures are pricing in another 25 basis-point hike for June and signal the RBA will raise to 2.75% by year’s end. That’s again well ahead of a central bank whose economic forecasts assume a cash rate of 1.5%-1.75%.

As Bloomberg notes, the RBA’s tightening presents a problem for Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s government (not to mention Joe Biden) as the Australian electorate is heavily indebted and already grappling with consumer prices rising much quicker than wages growth. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s largest lender, immediately announced it will raise variable home-loan rates by 25 basis points.

Morrison blamed offshore events for pushing borrowing costs higher, while opposition Labor Party shadow Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the RBA had “completely shredded” the prime minister’s economic credentials.

Australia’s bigger than expected rate hike did no favors to risk sentiment one day ahead of the Fed’s own 50bps (or is it 75bps) rate hike decision, and pushed global equities lower.

END

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0516 DOWN .0008 /EUROPE BOURSES //MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

USA/ YEN 130.09 UP 0.068 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2515 UP 0.0014

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED

Hang Sang CLOSED UP 12.50 OR .06%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.47% // EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 12.50 OR .06%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.47

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1962.75

silver:$22.70

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 103.52 DOWN 24 CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.05% UP 0 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.224% up 0 AND 0/10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.01%// up 0 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 2.86 UP 1 points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +0.953% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.75% AND NOW ABOVE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for tues /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0538 UP 0029 or 29 basis points

USA/Japan: 129.98 DOWN 130 OR YEN UP 130 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2513 UP 15 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP 0.0033 OR 01 BASIS pts DOWN to 1.2838

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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.6062

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.6470

TURKISH LIRA: 14.82 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.224

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 7 IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.926% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.988 DOWN 7 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 103.35 DOWN 41 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 7.67 PTS OR .10%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 69.87 POINTS OR 0.50%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 33.11 PTS OR 0.52%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 140.10 PTS OR 1.66%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 338.48 PTS OR 1.42%

WTI Oil price 103.50 12: EST

Brent Oil: 105.84 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE RISES TO: 70.96 UP 0 RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.955

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0506 DOWN .0626 OR DOWN 62 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2492 DOWN .0062or 62 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 130.15UP 0.611//YEN DOWN 611 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2877 UP .0074 (CDN dollar DOWN 74 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 105.19

Brent OIL: 107,84

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.989 UP11 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.053 UP 11 pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.89

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA///USA/ ROUBLE: 70.96 DOWN 0 ROUBLES (ROUBLE UP 0 ROUBLES/USA

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 939.18 PTS OR 2.77%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 601.25 PTS OR 4.47%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 34.34 UP 4.35 PTS (14.50%)

GLD: 176.91 DOWN 0.02 PTS OR 0.00%

SLV/ 21.04 DOWN .38 PTS OR 1.77%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

END

I) /MORNING TRADING/

END

II)USA data

The JOLTS: my goodness, job opening surpass unemployed workers by 5.6 million

(zerohedge)

A Record Number Of Americans Just Quit Their Job, As Job Openings Surpass Unemployed Workers By A Record 5.6 Million

TUESDAY, MAY 03, 2022 – 10:41 AM

Another month, another blockbuster JOLTS report confirming just how terribly broken the US labor market is.

Last month, the BLS reported that the US job market was plagued by a near record 11.27 million job openings. Then moments ago, the BLS published its latest, March JOLTS report according to which job openings just hit a new all time high 11.549 million, blowing away expectations of 11.2 million, up 205K from February and up 100K from the previous record high of 11.448 million hit in December of 2021.

In other words, of this moment – when US GDP is already negative – there still is a record number of job openings in the US job market, a phenomenon which Jeff Gundlach recently attributed to the surging “crime-force participation rate“, claiming that lack of prosecution has made millions of potential workers into hardened shoplifting criminals.

Looking at the details, Job openings increased in retail trade (+155,000) and in durable goods manufacturing (+50,000). Job openings decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-69,000); state and local government education (-43,000); and federal government (-20,000).

What we find far more remarkable, however, is that amid the continued tightening in the labor market, there was a new record, or 5.6 million more vacant jobs than unemployed workers in March, confirming that the US labor market remains woefully, perhaps irreparably cracked, and the wage-price spiral is all too reak.

And with far more job openings than unemployed workers, this meant that in March there were again less than 1 unemployed workers – a record low 0.56 to be exact – for every job opening.

And while the number of job openings rose again, this was offset by a curious decline in the number of hires, which dropped from 6.832MM to 6.737MM in March.

One last observation comes from the February quits rate: after the number of Americans quitting their job hit an all time high 4.510 million in November, it then dropped modestly for a few months in a row, but then reversed sharply higher again in February and March, rising by 284K in the two months and increasing to a record 4.536 million, which confirms that once again, more Americans than ever are willing to take their chances and quit their job in hopes of finding higher pay elsewhere.

The quits rate was flat at 3.0%, with the number of quits edged up to a series high of 4.5 million (+152,000). The rate was little changed at 3.0 percent. Quits increased in professional and business services (+88,000) and construction (+69,000).

-END-

US Factory Orders Surge In March (As ISM Plunges)

TUESDAY, MAY 03, 2022 – 10:07 AM

Following February’s disappointing 0.5% MoM decline in US Factory Orders (and despite the ongoing slump in ISM Manufacturing), analysts expected a rebound in March and they were right. US Factory Orders surged 2.2% MoM in March and February was revised up from a 0.5% decline to a 0.1% MoM rise. Ex-Transports, factory orders rose even more (up 2.5% MoM from an upwardly revised +1.0% MoM in February).

Source: Bloomberg

This is the biggest jump in US Factory orders since May 2021, lifting the ‘hard’ data to its most divergent from the ‘soft’ data on record…

Source: Bloomberg

What happens next?

end.

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

end

iiia) USA inflation//SHIPPING commentaries//LOG JAMS//

The importance of surging diesel prices across the USA

(Fuller/FreightWaves)

Why Every American Should Care That Diesel Prices Are Surging Across The Country

MONDAY, MAY 02, 2022 – 10:20 PM

By Craig Fuller, CEO of FreightWaves,

Gasoline prices are increasing almost daily, pinching the wallets and pocketbooks of nearly all Americans with cars. However, as bad as that news is, diesel prices are surging even more across the country.

Today’s truckstop retail diesel prices hit a new record of $5.32/gallon. Since February 1st, national truckstop diesel prices have increased by $1.57/gallon. For an owner-operator whose truck gets 6.5 miles per gallon, this equates to a cost increase of $0.24 per mile.

Diesel’s importance to our economy

To many Americans (including politicians), diesel prices are so removed from their version of reality that they often dismiss the importance of diesel to the U.S. and global economies. However, diesel is the fuel that drives the economy and leaves major industries vulnerable to cost shocks.

Without diesel fuel, the U.S. economy would collapse in a matter of days. Our supply chains would completely shrivel, almost overnight.

Trucks use it to haul our goods across the country. Of all Class 8 trucks (the big ones), 97% use diesel. No, Elon Musk is not going to save us here. When Tesla announced the Semi in 2017, Musk projected that over 100,000 would be produced by 2022. Today there are less than 20, mostly prototypes.

Trains also depend on diesel to transport products across the country. Almost every train in the country depends on diesel for energy.

Even a large portion of our electricity is indirectly powered by diesel. Over one-fifth (22%) of our electricity in the United States comes from coal. Diesel-powered trains transport coal to power plants across the nation.

Diesel is also critical to our imports and exports, because 80% of the ships that transport products via the ocean are powered by diesel.

A world without diesel would mean that our grocery stores and restaurants would run out of food, retail store shelves would be empty, and hospitals would run out of medical supplies. But that is just scratching the surface.

Diesel’s importance to agriculture

Farmers use diesel to power most of their machinery. According to the Diesel Technology Forum, diesel is critical to the farming industry:

One reason why U.S. agriculture is among the most productive and economically valuable in the world; producing more yield in less time with fewer inputs, is thanks to the advancements in the machines and equipment that do the planting, harvesting and tending to the land. Today, diesel engines power the majority of agricultural equipment in the U.S. and around the world necessary to plant, cultivate and harvest crops and transport them to markets or for processing and then delivered ultimately to the consumer.

Diesel engines power more than two-thirds of all farm equipment, transport 90% of its product and pump one-fifth of its water in the United States. Ninety-six percent of the large trucks that move agricultural commodities to railheads and warehouses are powered by a diesel engine. One hundred percent of the freight locomotives, marine river grain barges and ocean-going vessels that deliver these products to markets at home and abroad are powered by diesel.

In the agricultural sector, there is no cost-effective substitute for diesel engines with the same combination of energy efficiency, power and performance, durability and reliability. Diesel dominates the entire “farm supply chain” – planting the product, tending the crop (watering, fertilizers, and pesticides), harvesting the product and even bringing the product to market by truck, rail or ship. Farm tractors, combines, irrigation pumps and other equipment are the workhorses in an industry vital to our national economy and quality of life.

Nearly every fishing vessel around the world uses diesel for power. Without diesel, our fishing food supply chain would collapse.

Diesel’s importance to the industrial sector

Diesel also powers the construction industry. From the Diesel Technology Forum:

Roughly 850,000 diesel-powered vehicles nationwide are in use bringing supplies, materials and workers to and from U.S. construction sites. Earthmovers, bulldozers, bucket loaders, backhoes, cranes, pavers, excavators and motor graders are all essential to building and expanding our economic infrastructure. For most of these machines, there is simply no substitute for diesel power. No viable alternative has yet emerged for equipment that exceeds 500 horsepower; some construction engines produce several thousand horsepower.

Since diesel powers the industrial economy, the recent surges in prices will put additional inflationary pressures on the U.S. economy – in the sectors that have already experienced unprecedented inflation – transportation, agriculture, and construction.

But this may be less damaging than demand destruction that may come along with price surges, especially in transportation and construction.

end

Consumer goods giant Clorox slahses profit outlook and then signals further price hikes

(zerohedge)

Consumer Goods Giant Clorox Slashes Profit Outlook, Signals Further Price-Hikes

TUESDAY, MAY 03, 2022 – 08:25 AM

Clorox shares slipped premarket Tuesday after the maker of disinfectant wipes and other consumer goods cut its full-year gross margin outlook due to inflationary troubles on Monday. The company plans to hike prices on various products through the summer.

The company reported a third-quarter (ended March 31) adjusted profit of $1.31-per-share, down from $1.62-per-share for the same quarter a year ago. Net sales rose 2% to $1.81 billion, compared with flat sales last year. Net sales were also higher than the estimated $1.79 billion.

Clorox said net sales for the year could decrease by 1% to 4%. Higher operating costs will hurt gross margins, which are expected to decrease by 800bps. The company said the extra costs are “primarily due to higher than previously anticipated commodity and manufacturing and logistics costs.”

“While cost inflation continues to increase and uncertainty remains, we’re seeing the strength and resiliency of our brands driving benefits across the business, and the actions we’re taking to rebuild margin are gaining momentum,” Clorox CEO Linda Rendle said in a statement.

Clorox anticipates making $3.60 to $3.85-per-share for the fiscal year ending June, or $4.05 to $4.30-per-share on an adjusted basis. It previously estimated an annual profit of $3.80 to $4.05-per-share, or $4.25 to $4.50-per-share as adjusted.

The knock-on effects of inflation led Rendle to tell analysts during an earnings call Monday that prices for its iconic bleach and other products will see price hikes.

“We have since taken a subsequent round that was effective this month — in April, and we’re starting to see that flow through in the marketplace. And then we have an additional round of pricing scheduled for July. That is also broad across our portfolio, and we’re actually going deeper than we had intended to go when we first announced the price increase given what we’re seeing from the impact on Ukraine. So we made that decision shortly after we saw the impacts. In total, the vast majority of our portfolio will be priced, and the majority of the portfolio will also have multiple rounds across all three of those time periods,” Rendle told analysts during an earnings call Monday.

Jefferies analyst Kevin Grundy responded to Clorox’s earnings report as “mixed:”

“While the envt. is clearly challenging, cost pressures were again worse than anticipated for CLX, driving another downward revision to the co.’s FY22 EPS outlook,” Grundy wrote

Clorox shares slipped 3% to $139 per share, reversing the rally that began in mid-March.

The question remains whether consumers balk at higher-priced Clorox products and seek cheaper alternatives…

IIIB) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

end

iv)swamp stories

The King Report (including swamp stories)

Putin to undergo cancer surgery, transfer power to ex-FSB chief: report https://trib.al/hYNPNYZ

Geoff Morrell Out at Disney After Three Months
The former BP executive and Bush-era Pentagon spokesman joined Disney earlier this year in the new role, which included oversight of Disney’s communications, government relations and public policy efforts… (Went woke, got broke?)  https://www.yahoo.com/news/geoff-morrell-disney-three-months-203855067.html

Disney Names Kristina Schake Head of Global Communications… worked for the Biden and Obama White Houses, and in communications at Instagram.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/disney-kristina-schake-head-of-global-communications-1235125798/

An economist’s warning for stock market investors
Andrew Smithers lifts the corporate veil to reveal a world in which the managers of public companies put their own interests first and seek to maximise current share prices rather fundamental values. In the United States, their actions have produced an overvalued stock market, excessive corporate debt and inadequate levels of investment…
    If managements aimed to maximise the net worth of their businesses, they would issue shares when the cost of equity is low (and shares are highly valued in the market) and use the capital for investment. They don’t act in this manner because the immediate effect of new investment is to lower a company’s earnings per share. Along with issuing new shares, this tends to temporarily depress stock prices.
   Instead, managers prefer to take on debt to buy back shares at inflated prices… as long-term interest rates have declined, U.S. companies have taken on more and more debt to repurchase their shares.
    As a result, the valuation of the U.S. stock market has significantly diverged from its fair value…
    Smithers suggests the best way to value equities is to compare their market price to the cost of replacing underlying corporate assets. This measure, known as Tobin’s Q, is named after the Nobel laureate economist, James Tobin. The snag is that the process of mean reversion can take decades, well beyond the time horizon of most investors…
https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/global-markets-breakingviews-2022-04-14/

@CNBCOvertime 4:34 PM ET: FANG stocks top the shopping list for Tom Lee of @fundstrat. Here’s why he thinks the group could see the biggest moves on a rebound.  https://t.co/8nxWUv02DX

Did Fangs soar late on Monday, and pull other equities with them, because someone had advance knowledge that a pundit would talk up FANGs on CNBC after the close?  At 14:44 ET, the NY Fang+ Index was at 5338.34; it closed at 5511.6401, a 3.13% rally in 76 minutes! Today’s action might tell.

@PauloMacro: “In S&P 500 futures today, $10.5 billion notional traded on the offer vs. bid side of the spread, the 4th-largest amount of buying pressure in a single day since 2016. The other three days since 2016 on which we saw this amount of notional having traded on the offer side of the spread were February 24, 2022, December 15, 2021 and December 7, 2016.”

ESMs are -2.50 & USMs are +8/32 at 20:30 ET.

Expected earnings: DD .67, PFE 1.55, CMI 3.57, BIIB 4.35, HLT .67, SEE .93, MPC 1.28, ROK 2.28, ETN 1.60, EXPD 1.76, PRU 1.72, AIG 1.17, AMD .92, PKI 1.12

Expected economic data: 2-day FOMC Meeting begins (50bp rate hike expected); March Factory Orders 1.2% m/m; March Durable Goods 0.8% m/m, Ex-Trans 1.1%; March JOLTS Job Openings 11.2m; April Wards Total Vehicle Sales 13.9m

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4378; 100-day MA: 4487; 150-day MA: 4509; 200-day MA: 4492
DJIA 50-day MA: 34,081; 100-day MA: 34,794; 150-day MA: 34,967; 200-day MA: 34,974

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5125.85 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4547.45 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4529.25 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4173.65 triggers a buy signal

@KatieDaviscourt: President Biden: “There have not been many senators from Delaware. It’s a small state. Matter of fact, there’s never been one.” Biden was a Senator from Delaware for 36 years.
https://twitter.com/KatieDaviscourt/status/1521230273626599424
Russian oligarch with close ties to Putin met with Hunter Biden in Moscow over potential investment deal before meeting TWICE more in New York and DC – and is now sanctioned by the UK (but NOT the US) (If this were true of any GOP pol’s son, there would be umpteenth investigations, special counsels, 24/7 MSM coverage, and beaucoup commentary expressing outrage!)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10767957/Hunter-Biden-flew-Moscow-meeting-sanctioned-Russian-oligarch-Vladimir-Yevtushenkov.html

Biden official says food shortages will push farmers to green energy: ‘Never let a crisis go to waste’
A top Biden official said Sunday that the global food shortage crisis would push farmers toward relying on more green energy. “Never let a crisis go to waste,” U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Chief Samantha Power told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “This Week.”
    Speaking of the global consequences of Russia’s war with Ukraine, the Biden official said that fertilizer shortages would provide farmers the opportunity to “hasten” their “transition” from fertilizer to more “natural” resources…   https://t.co/x105HEC8LC

Transgender Assistant Secretary of Health Rachel Levine sparks fury by claiming ALL pediatricians agree on ‘gender-affirming care’ https://t.co/zV3RlWKjiD

Stage managed: Senate Democrat fed question to DOJ witness, suggested answer ahead of hearings
An aide to Georgia Democrat Jon Ossoff even asked DOJ if witnesses would have “heartburn” or “would have any trouble answering” prearranged questions.
    Memos made public under the Freedom of Information Act show Ossoff, a freshman Democrat, fed his planned questions and even suggested an answer to Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Kristin Clarke ahead of two Senate Judiciary Committee hearings last fall…
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/stage-managed-senate-democrat-fed-question-doj-witness-suggested-answer-ahead

Elon Musk Drops the Mic on MSNBC Hack Who ‘Basically Says Republicans are Nazis
“If [the “neo-Nazi faction” of the GOP expands in Nov.], we may look back on this… as a pivotal moment, when a petulant and not-so-bright billionaire casually bought one of the most influential messaging machines and just handed it to the far-right,” Hasan claimed… Hasan also claimed that Donald Trump is poised to ‘re-seize’ executive power…
     Same org that covered up Hunter Biden laptop story, had Harvey Weinstein story early & killed it & built Matt Lauer his rape office. Lovely people. — Elon Musk (@elonmusk)
https://beckernews.com/elon-musk-drops-the-mic-on-msnbc-hack-who-basically-says-republicans-are-nazis-44873/

NBC News admits plagiarism in multiple articles by digital reporter
https://www.foxnews.com/media/nbc-news-admits-plagiarism-multiple-articles-digital-reporter

@elonmusk: Where is their (Maxwell & Epstein) “client” list? Shouldn’t at least one of them go down!?
Hey, why are they already writing my suicide story!?

“Even the names of the four Ministries by which we are governed exhibit a sort of impudence in their deliberate reversal of the facts. The Ministry of Peace concerns itself with war, the Ministry of Truth with lies, the Ministry of Love with torture and the Ministry of Plenty with starvation. These contradictions are not accidental, nor do they result from ordinary hypocrisy; they are deliberate exercises in doublethink. For it is only by reconciling contradictions that power can be retained indefinitely.” — Orwell in 1984.