APRIL 13//GOLD DOWN AGAIN BY $16.25 TO $1809.50//SILVER IS UP 31 CENTS TO $20.99//PLATINUM DOWN $4.10 TO $943.60//PALLADIUM UP $25.70 TO $1936.10//COVID UPDATES: UPDATES FROM SHANGHAI//COVID INJURIES//VACCINE IMPACT//COMMODITY UPDATE: COFFEE POISED TO RISE AS FROST IS COMING TO BRAZIL//DIESEL WILL BE RATIONED IN THE EASTERN PART OF USA//SAMSUNG IN SOUTH KOREA WILL RAISE PRICES BY 20%/FINLAND WILL MAKES ITS APPLICATION FOR NATO//RUSSIA THREATENS TO CUT OFF GAS SUPPLIES TO FINLAND//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA UPDATES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT.//

May 12, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1809.50 DOWN $16.25

SILVER: $20.99 UP  $.31

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1809.90

SILVER: $21.04

Bitcoin morning price:  $30,399 UP 1718

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $30,147 up 1466

Platinum price: closing DOWN $4.10 to $943.60

Palladium price; closing UP $25/70  at $1936.15

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX

comex notices percentage of JPMorgan notices filed: 83/100

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,823.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/12/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 05/16/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


118 C MACQUARIE FUT 100
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 9
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 3
661 C JP MORGAN 83
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
905 C ADM 4


TOTAL: 100 100
MONTH TO DATE: 5,376



NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT 100  NOTICE(S) FOR 10,000 OZ  (0.31104  TONNES)

total notices so far:  5376 contracts for 537,600. oz (16.7216 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

36 NOTICE(S) FILED 180,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  4854  :  for 24,295,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $16.25

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.80 TONNES FROM THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.82 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 31 CENTS

AT THE SLV// A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

AT THE SLV.

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 570.439 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED  4116 CONTRACTS TO 145,862   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND  THE STRONG LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $0.88 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.88) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS  AS  WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 6101 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 30.170 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 80,000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON  //NEW STANDING 27.840 MILLION OZ/ //  V)    HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : 3173

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 9 days, total 14,314,  contracts:  71.570 million oz  OR 7.952 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1591CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 71.570 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 71.570 MILLION OZ//INCREASING AGAIN

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 943 DESPITE OUR   $0.88 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1985 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY. OF 30.170 MILLION  OZ  FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 80,000  OZ E.F.P. JUMP //NEW STANDING 27.840 MILLION OZ//  .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2928 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 30.505 MILLION  OZ DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE. 

 WE HAD 36  NOTICE FILED TODAY FOR  180,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1618 CONTRACTS  TO 573,045 AND CLOSER TO NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  –7810 CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

.

THE  FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $26.50//COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY /.AS IN SILVER WE MUST  HAD  HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY AT 5.353 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE /FOLLOWED BY TODAY”S QUEUE JUMP OF 8400 OZ//NEW STANDING 16.824 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF   $26.50 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 8268  OI CONTRACTS (25.716 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED  2076 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 573,045.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A  SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 458, WITH 1618 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2076 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 458 CONTRACTS OR 1.424 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2076) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1618,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES  458 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY. AT 5.353 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 8400 OZ//NEW STANDING 16.824 ///  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //.,4) FAIR SIZED COMEX  OI. LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

MAY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :

40,363 CONTRACTS OR 4,036,300 OR 125.5  TONNES 9 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4484 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 1 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  125.5/3550 x 100% TONNES  3.54% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  125.5 TONNES INITIAL// INCREASING AGAIN

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAY.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 943 CONTRACT OI TO 142,689 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 1985 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAY 1985  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 4943 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1985 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2928 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE  GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 14.660 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF  $0.88 .

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

end

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 29.29 PTS OR 0.69%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 518.43 PTS OR 2.67%    /The Nikkei closed UP 678.93 OR 2.64%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.97%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6,7882    /Oil UP TO 107.57 dollars per barrel for WTI and down TO 109.05 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7882 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8088: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER/

/

a)NORTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1618 CONTRACTS TO 573,045 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG  LOSS OF $26.50 IN GOLD PRICING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2076 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2076 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 JUNE :2076 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2076 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY SMALL SIZED  TOTAL OF 458 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2076 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD AN GOOD SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1618  CONTRACTS..AND YET  THIS GAIN OCCURRED WITH  OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF GOLD $26.50.   MAKES NO SENSE!! THIS IS HAPPENING FAR SO OFTEN!

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY   (15.569),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 16.824 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $26.50) BUT  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS// AS WE HAVE  REGISTERED A VERY SMALL SIZED GAIN  OF 1/424 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY (16.824 TONNES)

WE HAD 7810 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 458 CONTRACTS OR 45800  OZ OR 1.424

 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 185,998/// poor

Confirmed volume yesterday:332,691 contracts  good

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAY ’22 COMEX GOLD //MAY 13

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz32,568.960 oz
Brinks
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz20,956.105 oz
Delaware
Loomis
No of oz served (contracts) today100  notice(s)10000 OZ
0.31104 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)33 contracts 3300 oz
0.1026 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month5376 notices
537,600 OZ
16.7216 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

For today:

dealer deposits  0

total dealer deposit  nil   oz//

No dealer withdrawals

2 customer deposits

i) Into Delaware 977.955 oz

ii) Into Loomis:  19,978.150 oz

1 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks:  32,568,960 oz

total withdrawal: 32,568.960 oz

ADJUSTMENTS:   a)  Brinks//dealer to customer 90,762.273 oz

 b) customer to dealer:  JPmorgan  64,237.693 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.

For the front month of MAY we have an  oi of 133 contracts having LOST 1107 contracts

We had 1191 notices filed on Wednesday, so we gained 84 contracts or  AN ADDITIONAL 8400 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of May.

June saw a loss of 26,762 contracts down to 276,409 contracts 

July has a LOSS OF 2 OI to stand at 176

August has a gain of 25,140 contracts up to 239,047 contracts

We had 100 notice(s) filed today for  100 oz FOR THE MAY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 100 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and  183 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5376) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (MAY 133  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  100 x 100 oz per contract equals 540,900 OZ  OR 16.824 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this non  active month of MAY. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (5376) x 100 oz+   (133)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (100} x 100 oz} which equals 540900 oz standing OR 16.824 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of MAY.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  16.824 TONNES  (A STRONG STANDING FOR A MAY ( NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,026,795.134 oz                             

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  35,977,798.829 OZ 

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 18,163,084.651  OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,814,714.149 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,787,919.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  

END

MAY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//MAY 13

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory612,484.145  oz
Brinks
CNT
Manfra
Delaware
JPMorgan
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory1,357,785.655 oz
CNT
Delaware
JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)36CONTRACT(S)
180,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)709 contracts (3,545,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)4859 contracts 24,295,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposit into the dealer

total dealer deposits:  nil     oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 3 deposits into the customer account

i) Into CNT:  562,586.281 oz

ii) Into Delaware; 212,005.875 oz

iii) IntoJPMorgan:  583,198.500 oz

total deposit:  1,357,785.685    oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 177.434 million oz/338.782 million =52.37% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 5

i) Out of JPMorgan  174,600.250 oz

ii) Out of Brinks:  4859.500 oz

iii) Out of CNT  421,030.590 oz

iv) Manfra: 10,127.70 oz

v) Out of Delaware 1876.105 oz

total withdrawal 612,494.145     oz

2 adjustments: 

a) dealer to customer Brinks  245,295.670 oz

b) customer to dealer/JPMorgan 10,250.920 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 80.505 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 338.752 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MAY OI: 745 HAVING LOST 102 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 86 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY

SO WE LOST 16  CONTRACTS OR AN E.F,P. JUMP OF 80,000 OZ TO LONDON

JUNE HAD A GAIN OF 18 TO STAND AT 1549

JULY HAD A GAIN OF 1477 CONTRACTS UP TO 113,466 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 86 for 430,000 oz

Comex volumes: 55,137// est. volume today//   fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 89,839 contracts (  good )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4859 x 5,000 oz = 24,295,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY(745) and the number of notices served upon today 36  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the MAY./2021 contract month: 4859 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY (745)  – number of notices served upon today (36) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month equates 27,8400,000 oz. .

We LOST 80 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 80,000 OZ will NOT  stand for delivery at the comex

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

MAY 13/ WITH GOLD DOWN $16.25//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.8 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.82 TONNES

MAY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.99 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.62 TONNES

MAY 11/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.25 TONNES FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.65 TONNES

MAY 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.10 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.90 TONNES

MAY 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.05: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.98 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.00 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $7.95: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1084.98 TONNES

MAY 5/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.04 TONNES

MAY 4//WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 \TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.04 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $6.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A WITHDRAWL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1092.23

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.20: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1094.55 TONNES

APRIL 29/WITH GOLD UP $20.05/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1095,72 TONNES

APRIL 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.77 TONNES FROM THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1095.72 TONNES

APRIL 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.30//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.49 TONNES

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD UP $7.60//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.9 TONNES INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101.23 TONNES

APRIL 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.13 TONNES 

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.13 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1106.74 TONNES

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT IF 6.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1106.74 TONNES

APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1100.36 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $11.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.44 TONNES

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A  DEPOSIT OF 11.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.42 TONNES

APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $26.95: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 //A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1090.49 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP $7.70: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1088.75 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.30 TONNES

APRIL 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.68 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.30 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.98 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1060.82 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

MAY 13/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ/

MAY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ//

May 11/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.487 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ//

MAY 10.//WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .93 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .851 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.900 MILLION OZ

MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF.877 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 47 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 554,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.171 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 29//WITH SILVER DOWN 12  CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.725 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.308 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.725 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.385 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.033 MILLION OZ

APRIL 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.418 MILLION OZ

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.031 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.418 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS : STRANGE!! A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING DEPOSIT OF 3.508 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 581.449 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 21/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.941 MILLION OZ

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS : A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.955 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.941 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .461 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY…//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.986 MILLION OZ

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.771 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.447 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS : A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.355 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 569.676 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP 66 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 831,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS :NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 7/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS : A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.386 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESETS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

INVENTORY TONIGHT RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ/

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

2.LAWRIE WILLIAMS//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James  RICKARDS/

-END-

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Your weekend reading material: topic rising prices

Alasdair Macleod: The most difficult thing in economics is to explain rising prices

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-05-12 19:35Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, May 12, 2022

It is apparent from media commentary that there is considerable misunderstanding over the causes behind rising prices and the consequences for interest rates. There are now signs that the official narrative over these issues is misleading at best.

Those who have protected their wealth by investing in financial assets no longer have the following breeze of falling interest rates. Financial bubbles are now bursting. Understanding the causes and therefore being able to assess the likely losses involved is becoming urgent for anyone committed to financial markets.

This article explains inflation in its proper context, which is loss of purchasing power for state-issued currencies, so that current conditions are better understood. It dissects the delusions behind monetary policies over both the causes of rising consumer prices and interest rate management.

It concludes that we are beginning to experience the worst of two worlds simultaneously: while the financial bubble collapses, in anticipation of and the response to an accelerated debasement of fiat currencies, prices of everything from commodities to finished goods will soar as a crackup boom materialises. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-most-difficult-thing-in-economics?gmrefcode=gata

END

Chris Powell..important read.

(Chris Powell)

When buying gold and silver, consider the dealers who support GATA

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-05-12 23:36Section: Daily Dispatches

11:35p ET Thursday, May 12, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Being the only forms of money without counterparty risk, at least when held directly by their owners, gold and silver are often seen as the foundation of a sound investment portfolio. 

This principle was put into graphic format by the U.S. economist John Exter, who served as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s vice president in charge of international banking and precious metals operations, as well as a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, long before suppressing the gold price became the Fed’s primary objective.

In Exter’s inverted pyramid of financial asset risk, gold is the ultimate asset, with all other assets posing greater risk to their owners:

But you can do more than protect yourself when you buy gold and the other monetary metal, silver. You can also help GATA fight the price suppression we long have been exposing, documenting, and sometimes litigating against:

https://gata.org/node/20925

That is you can buy metal from dealers who support GATA and have been recommended by our supporters over the years.

A list of those dealers is included with every GATA Dispatch and is posted at GATA’s internet site here:

https://gata.org/node/173

So please give them a chance to meet your investment needs.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

Gold Tumbles Below $1800, Erases All YTD Gains

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 09:21 AM

The paper price of the yellow rock sjust tumbled back below $1800 for the first time since early Feb…

This is well below pre-Putin-invasion levels and Gold is now underwater for 2022…

…because nothing says ‘sell paper gold’ like raging global inflation…

And don’t blame the dollar’s rise. With DXY at 100, Gold has traded at $1923, $1700, $1230, $1140, & $330

As Mike Shedlock recently noted, Gold is not an inflation hedge except in extreme cases, notably hyperinflation.

The price of gold fell from $850 to $250 between 1980 and 2000 with inflation every step of the way

Rather, gold is largely a function of faith in central banks, especially the central bank of the major reserve currency country.

Gold fell from 1980 to 2000 as there was great faith in Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, then considered the “great maestro”.

If gold is ‘bet’ on government credibility, then we suspect the 2000-year history of the barbarous relic’s ‘value’ is not different this time.

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES //COFFEE

Cold front coming to Brazil which should cause coffee prices to rise

(zerohedge)

Coffee Prices Jump As “Intense New Cold Front” Threatens Top-Producer Brazil

THURSDAY, MAY 12, 2022 – 08:00 PM

Coffee futures in New York jumped Wednesday as new weather forecasts show the world’s largest producer has increased frost risks in top growing areas. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration published new forecasts that show low temperatures in Cerrado, Parana state, and Mogiana could record below 5 degrees Celsius (41 degrees Fahrenheit) by May 16. In the south of Minas Gerais and Guaxupe, temperatures may trend even lower through May 19. All of the regions listed are top-producing areas for arabica beans. 

Global coffee reporter & independent analyst Maja Wallengren said, “intense new cold front starting to move into all main 2022 Arabica coffee regions in Brazil this week with temp potentially as low as -5 C° from southern Parana, all SM + AM to NW Cerrado + NE Matas in Minas Gerais. R $JO buyers really going to stay short?”

Arabica futures in New York jumped more than 6% to $2.16 per pound on the news. Prices are up 133% since the COVID-19 low of around $1 per pound and have faded from decade highs of $2.60 in March. 

The International Coffee Organization (IOC) recently slashed its global 2020/21 supply estimate to a deficit of -3.13 million bags from a 1.2 million bag surplus. 

Signs of tighter global coffee supplies have pushed prices to decade highs. Elevated coffee prices may not be immediately pushed to the consumer because of hedging by large US importers.

Starbucks, which buys coffee “12-18 months” ahead, locked-in prices at the lows of early-2021 and are set to expire. This means a cup of coffee at the largest US retail coffee chain could rise further due to supply issues, among the other forms of inflation, such as labor, freight, etc..

END

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL//

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.7882

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8088

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 518.43 PTS OR 2.67% 

2. Nikkei closed 678.93 OR 2.64%

3. Europe stocks  ALL CLOSED  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  104.79/Euro RISES TO 1.0387

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +.24/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 129.95/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -SHORE CLOSED  UP//  OFF- SHORE  UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +0.859%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 2.75% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 1.90%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.375

3j Gold at $1815.70 silver at: 20.75  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN  1.3      roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 64.61

3m oil into the 107 dollar handle for WTI and  109 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 129.06 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9997– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0382well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.909- UP 9  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.073 UP 10 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 15.43

Futures Jump As Crypto Turmoil Fades, Dip Buyers Make Cautious Appearance

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 07:56 AM

After dropping to the edge of a bear market, with Eminis sliding to precisely 3,855 or exactly 20% lower than the all time high, US index futures rebounded sharply from the brink (the same way they did on Dec 24, 2018 when the S&P spent a few minutes in a bear market) as the stabilization of much of the cryptosphere (where no new stablecoins suddenly cratered to 0) and an overnight easing in Treasury yields provided some relief after a two-day slide. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1.7% as of 730 a.m. in New York. S&P 500 futures were also higher, rising 1.1%, as high as 3976 after dropping to 2,855 yesterday. Twitter shares plunged as much as 26% in New York premarket trading after Elon Musk tweeted that his deal for the social media company was “temporarily on hold.” Yields on 10-year US Treasury yields fell for a fourth consecutive day on Thursday, reaching 2.85%, before edging higher again on Friday. The dollar index dipped but remains on course for its longest streak of weekly gains since 2018, while bitcoin and ether reversed several days of harrowing losses to rise back over 30,000 and 2,000, respectively.

Abating panic in the cryptocurrency market was among the highlights of a risk-on environment on the last day of the week. Bitcoin added about $1,800 to top $30,000. US cryptocurrency-exposed stocks including Riot Blockchain Inc. and Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. also rallied premarket.

In notable premarket moves, Twitter slumped 21% after bidder Elon Musk tweeted deal was “temporarily on hold” pending details about fake accounts. On the other end, Robinhood surged 20% after cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried snapped up a 7.6% stake, while Affirm jumped 30% after earnings. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks climbed as digital assets started to rebound after the recent rout linked to the implosion of the TerraUSD stablecoin. Coinbase rose 11% despite being sued over its role in the promotion and trading of a stablecoin that purportedly had its value pegged to the price of the Japanese yen.  Bank stocks rose in premarket trading Friday, putting them on track to snap a six-day losing streak. Here are all the notable premarket movers:

  • Twitter (TWTR US) shares slump as much as 19% premarket after Musk says deal is “temporarily on hold pending details”. Tesla (TSLA US) shares hit a session high, rising nearly 5% on the news
  • Megacap tech stocks and semiconductor makers rally in US premarket trading amid a broad rebound across growth sectors, while Korean chip peer Samsung was said to be in talks to hike chipmaking prices. Apple (AAPL US) +2.1%, Meta Platforms (FB US) +2.4%, Microsoft (MSFT US) +1.8%
  • Robinhood (HOOD US) shares surge as much as 27% in U.S. premarket trading after cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried disclosed a new 7.6% stake in the online brokerage
  • Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks climb in US premarket trading as digital assets started to rebound after the recent rout linked to the implosion of the TerraUSD stablecoin. Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) +7.9%, Marathon Digital (MARA US) +7.2%
  • US-listed Chinese stocks rise in premarket trading, with sentiment boosted by the Fed’s pushback on speculation of steeper interest-rate hikes and Shanghai’s new timeline to end a grueling lockdown. Alibaba (BABA US) +3.3%, JD.com (JD US) +4%, Pinduoduo (PDD US) +4.3%.
  • New Relic (NEWR US) declined 9% in postmarket. It delivered a mixed fourth quarter, according to analysts, with revenue growth coming in ahead of consensus, albeit with a lower beat compared to the last period
  • Figs (FIGS US) sinks as much as 27% in US premarket trading, with Cowen saying that the scrubs maker’s cut to its full-year 2022 sales growth and Ebitda margin guidance is “well below” previous guidance
  • Compass (COMP US) jumpped 7% in extended trading after the real-estate software company reported larger-than-expected revenues in the first quarter, despite guiding toward lower- than-expected second-quarter revenue
  • First Solar Inc. (FSLR US) shares gained 2.8% in extended trading on Thursday, as Piper Sandler upgrades the stock to overweight from neutral

Stocks have plunged this year as traders fretted over the impact tighter monetary will have on growth, with the S&P 500 dropping to precisely 20% from its recent peak before bouncing. On Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday reaffirmed that the central bank is likely to raise interest rates by a half percentage point at each of its next two meetings, while leaving open the possibility it could do more. The Fed chair also said that whether a soft landing can be executed or not may depend on factors that they cannot control but added they have tools to get inflation under control and that it will ultimately be more painful if high inflation is not dealt with and becomes entrenched. Furthermore, he noted that with perfect hindsight, it would have been better to have hiked rates sooner, according to Reuters.

As the Federal Reserve embarks on interest-rate hikes to tame surging inflation, expensive growth shares, including the tech sector, have suffered as higher rates mean a bigger discount for the present value of future profits. This marks a shift in investor outlook after tech stocks had been some of the market’s best performers for years. 

“While we continue to see positives for the market, investor sentiment isn’t likely to turn until we get greater clarity on the 3Rs — rates, recession and risk,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer, UBS Global Wealth Management. “Until then, we favor parts of the market that should outperform in an environment of rising policy rates, slowing growth, and geopolitical uncertainty.”

At $1.1 billion, tech stocks suffered their biggest outflows so far this year in the week to May 11, second only to financials, which lost $2.6 billion, Bank of America CIO Michael Hartnett wrote in a note, citing EPFR Global data. By contrast, US stocks overall noted their first inflow in five weeks at $93 million.

It’s a “very tough time,” Kathy Entwistle, managing director at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “We’re holding just still and quiet and patient and waiting for some more insights as to where we’re going. We still see a lot of volatility on the horizon.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index rose 1.2% as the lowest valuations since the start of the pandemic drew buyers. Banks and technology stocks led gains, while autos and telecommunication shares underperformed.  Here are Europe’s biggest movers:

  • Evotec shares rise as much as 9.5% after Deutsche Bank analyst Falko Friedrichs raised the recommendation to buy from hold, citing a unique opportunity to invest in a firm with an entire partnered drug pipeline “for free.”
  • Deutsche Telekom shares advance 1.8% after raising full-year outlook for adjusted Ebitda after leases, reflecting higher forecasts for T-Mobile US.
  • Freenet shares gain as much as 4.8% 1Q results show a good start to the year, and there may be scope for a guidance upgrade in 1H22, Citi (buy) writes in note
  • Fortum shares advance as much as 11% on Friday — the biggest intraday gain since 2009 — after SEB and Danske Bank raised their recommendation on the stock citing the Finnish utility’s Russia exit and de-risking related to Uniper gas contracts.
  • UCB shares fall as much as 17% after the company said the US FDA said it can’t approve UCB’s psoriasis treatment bimekizumab in its current form, forcing the company and analysts to reasses 2022 expectations.
  • Drax falls as much as 7.6% and is among weakest performers in the Stoxx 600 on Friday after Credit Suisse gives the stock its only negative rating, moving to underperform on elevated power prices.
  • SalMar drops as much as 4%, falling alongside peers in the Norwegian salmon and seafood sector, after a slew of several companies in the sector reported 1Q earnings that came in below expectations.
  • Unipol and UnipolSai drop in Milan trading after releasing first-quarter results and the 2022-2024 strategic plan; analysts note lower-than-expected cumulative dividends in plan for UnipolSai.

European Union nations said it may be time to consider delaying a push to ban Russian oil if the bloc can’t persuade Hungary to back the embargo. Wheat production in Ukraine, one of the biggest growers, will fall by one-third compared to last year, according to a US forecast.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rallied as battered technology shares bounced back, with the regional benchmark still on track for its worst weekly losing streak since 2015 on worries about higher interest rates and lockdowns in China. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.8%, advancing with US futures as comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled rate hikes of more than 50 basis points may be unlikely. SoftBank was among the biggest boosts after its results, along with Tencent and TSMC. Traders said Friday’s rebound was largely driven by the unwinding of short positions following the recent selloff, with many still nervous about how China’s virus measures can complicate the already murky global economic outlook. The Asian equity measure was on track for its sixth-straight weekly decline, down 2.5% in the past five sessions.

“We have to be watchful on the impact of China’s lockdowns, that’s going to have an effect on inflation as well as on growth,” said Jumpei Tanaka, a strategist at Pictet. “Up until now, the earnings outlook hasn’t been lowered that much. The market has been adjusting valuations because of the Fed’s rate hikes. The next key point is how corporate earnings will be affected.” Japan’s Nikkei rose 2.6%, boosted by gains in Tokyo Electron after strong profits as well as SoftBank. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Tech Index jumped 4.5%.

India’s key equity indexes fell for a 6th straight session and posted their longest stretch of weekly losses in two years as investors’ appetite faded on the back of the local currency’s plunge to a record low and disappointing earnings.  The S&P BSE Sensex declined 0.3% to 52,793.62 in Mumbai after erasing advance of as much as 1.6% during the session. The NSE Nifty 50 Index retreated 0.2% to its lowest level since July 30. Both gauges have retreated 3.7% and 3.8% for the week respectively and fallen for a fifth straight week, their longest run of losses since April 2020. “The fear of rising inflation and expectations of more rate hikes in the near term are weighing on investors’ minds,” according to Kotak Securities analyst Amol Athawale.“Traders are selling at every opportunity given that there seems to be no respite from the negative news flows.” The Sensex and Nifty are now about 14.5% off their peak levels in Oct.  Ten of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. dropped on Friday, led by metal companies. For the week, utilities stock gauge was the worst performer, dropping about 11%.  ICICI Bank contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, easing 2.7%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 15 rose while rest fell.

In rates, Treasuries were pressured lower as stock futures pushed through Thursday’s session highs, following gains across European equities. 10-year TSY yields rose to around 2.90%, cheaper by 5bp on the day and sitting close to session highs into early session — both bunds and gilts underperform slightly across the sector. Risk sentiment was boosted by a rebound in cryptocurrencies, leaving Treasury yields cheaper by up to 6bp across long-end of the curve where 20-year sector underperforms. Long-end led losses steepening 5s30s by 2bp on the day and 2s10s by 2.8bp. The Dollar issuance slate is empty so far; six deals were priced for $11.5b Thursday, taking weekly total to $21.7b vs. $30b projected — two names decided to stand down. Bund, gilt and UST curves bear-steepen. Peripheral spreads widen, short-dated BTPs lag, widening 5bps to core. Yields on Japan’s debt fell even as those on Treasuries rise across the curve in Asia amid higher equities.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slumped and the greenback weakened against all of it Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen as investor demand for haven assets ebbed after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against speculation of more aggressive interest-rate hikes. Risk sensitive Scandinavian currencies as well ask the Australian dollar led gains. The main theme in the FX options space Friday is gamma selloff following the large swings this week. Still, demand for low-delta exposure on a haven basis remains better bid, with greenback topside in good demand versus the euro and the pound. European government bonds followed US Treasuries lower, snapping a recent rally. Treasury yields rose by 3-7 bps as the curve bear- steepened. The yen pared early weakness after BOJ’s Kuroda stressed FX stability. China’s yuan strengthens against the dollar following warnings from the CBIRC with gains fading following soft loan data.

In commodities, Crude futures advance, WTI gains stall near $108. Base metals trade poorly with much of the LME complex down over 1%. Spot gold trades in a narrow range near $1,823/oz.

In crypto, Bitcoin rose back above $30,000.  Binance said that withdrawals for Lunar and UST will open when the market becomes more stable, will suspend spot trading for LUNA/BUSD and UST/BUSD at 09:30BST, May 13th.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include Euro Area industrial production for March, along with the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for May. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Kashkari and Mester, as well as the ECB’s Centeno, Nagel and Schnabel.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 1.1% to 3,970.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.2% to 429.53
  • MXAP up 1.7% to 160.25
  • MXAPJ up 1.9% to 522.21
  • Nikkei up 2.6% to 26,427.65
  • Topix up 1.9% to 1,864.20
  • Hang Seng Index up 2.7% to 19,898.77
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.0% to 3,084.28
  • Sensex up 1.2% to 53,564.26
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.9% to 7,075.11
  • Kospi up 2.1% to 2,604.24
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.91%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.0403
  • Brent Futures up 0.8% to $108.30/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,822.04
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.25% to 104.59

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Calls are growing for China’s government to sell more bonds to pay for extra stimulus to boost an economy facing its greatest challenges since the initial few months of the pandemic in 2020
  • For global investors trying to gauge the fallout from surging interest rates and slowing economic growth, Hong Kong is quickly emerging as a must-watch market. While Hong Kong’s $466 billion foreign-reserves stockpile and plentiful interbank liquidity suggest little chance of an imminent crisis, signs of financial stress are building
  • UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak said the Brexit settlement in Northern Ireland is causing economic and political harm and called on the European Union to be flexible, comments likely to be seen as an attempt to publicly align himself with Boris Johnson after reports of a rift
  • With the U.K. wilting under the fastest inflation in three decades, supermarkets are raising prices at an even quicker rate, according to a new analysis prepared for Bloomberg. That’s turning the screws on shoppers who are already grappling with higher gas and heating bills and falling real incomes
  • Some EU nations are saying it may be time to consider delaying a push to ban Russian oil so they can proceed with the rest of a proposed sanctions package if the bloc can’t persuade Hungary to back the embargo
  • Beijing reported a slight increase in new Covid-19 cases after officials late Wednesday denied the city will be locked down amid growing concern the Chinese capital’s response to a persistent outbreak is about to be intensified
  • Investors are deep in risk-off mood with outflows from stocks, bonds, cash and gold, Bank of America strategists said, citing EPFR Global data

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were firmer as risk momentum picked up following on from the volatile session on Wall St where the major indices finished mixed but almost wiped out all losses after a late ramp up heading into the close. ASX 200 traded with respectable gains and back above the 7,000 level with tech frontrunning the advances. Nikkei 225 outperformed as focus remained on earnings, while SoftBank surged amid buyback hopes and despite a record loss. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp joined in on the elated mood with Hong Kong led by strength in tech, although the advances in the mainland were moderated by the mixed COVID headlines with Beijing to conduct the next round of mass COVID testing, while Shanghai aims to achieve zero community spread by the middle of this month and is considering expanding the scale of output resumption.

Top Asian News

  • Shanghai Vice Mayor said they aim to have no community spread of coronavirus by mid-May and are considering expanding the scale of production resumption, while they will aim to open up, ease traffic restrictions and open shops in an orderly manner, according to Reuters.
  • Shanghai is to prioritise resuming classes for grades 9, 11 and 12, while supermarkets, convenience and department stores will resume offline operations in an orderly manner and other services such as hairdressing will open gradually, according to Global Times.
  • China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission says the Yuan’s weakening is not sustainable, adding do not bet on the unilateral devaluation and appreciation or you could face unnecessary losses; retreat in the Yuan was normal market reaction..
  • BoJ Governor Kuroda said Japan still hasn’t achieved a situation where inflation is stably and sustainably at 2%, while the expected rise in inflation is driven mostly by energy costs and is lacking sustainability. Kuroda reiterated the BoJ must continue monetary easing to reach its price target and it is premature to debate an exit from ultra-easy policy, while he also said it is appropriate to maintain the current dovish forward guidance on interest rates, according to Reuters.
  • North Korea said around 350k have shown fever symptoms of an ‘unknown cause’ and 187.8k are being treated in isolation, while it reported 18k COVID-19 cases and 6 died from a fever in which one was confirmed as a COVID death, according to KCNA and Yonhap.

European bourses are firmer as the rebound from Thursday’s selloff continues, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.3%. US futures are similarly bolstered across the board, NQ outpacing peers modestly as Tech recoups, ES +0.9%. Samsung (005930 KS) is reportedly in talks to hike chipmaking prices by up to 20%, according to Bloomberg sources. Elon Musk says the Twitter (TWTR) deal is temporarily on hold, pending details supporting the calculation that spam/fake accounts represent less than 5% of users. Pressure in TWTR subsequent extended to -13% in the pre-market; extending to -19% after five-minutes.

Top European News

  • UK PM Johnson is considering as many as 90k job cuts in civil service, according to ITV.
  • GVS Shares Rise After Agreeing to Buy Haemotronic for EU212m
  • EU Starts to Consider Oil Sanctions Delay as Hungary Digs In
  • UCB Plunges After FDA Says It Can’t Approve Psoriasis Drug Now
  • Black Bankers Fight to Hold Finance Accountable for Its Promises

FX

  • Dollar and Yen shed some safe haven gains as risk sentiment recovers ahead of the weekend; DXY slips from fresh 2022 peak at 104.920, though still positive, and USD/JPY up near 129.00 vs new retracement low circa 127.50.
  • Aussie takes advantage of pickup in risk appetite and Yuan bounce amidst verbal intervention; AUD/USD hovering under 0.6900 from sub-0.6850 yesterday, USD/CNH and USD/CNY around 6.8000 vs 6.8370 and 6.8110.
  • Euro, Pound and Franc regroup, but remain vulnerable around psychological levels; 1.0400, 1.2200 and parity in EUR/USD, Cable and USD/CHF respectively.
  • Loonie off recent lows post hawkish BoC comments and pre Q1 Loans Survey, USD/CAD close to 1.3000 and 1.1bln option expiry interest between 1.2990 and the round number.
  • Peso underpinned after 50 bp Banxico hike as 1 of the 5 voters dissented for 75 bp.
  • Czech Koruna caught between CNB minutes underlining dovish leaning of new head and Holub opining that May’s hike may not be the final one.

Fixed Income

  • Bonds bounce after conceding ground to recovering risk assets.
  • Bunds find support just ahead of 154.00, Gilts in the low 120.00 zone and 10 year T-note at 119-07.
  • Curves re-steepen after decent US 30 year sale completes the Quarterly Refunding remit and attention turns to 20 year and 10 year TIPS auctions next week.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent are firmer moving with the broad rebound in risk-assets, however, upside is capped amid the EU considering omitting the proposed Russia oil embargo from the 6th sanctions round.
  • WTI resides around USD 107/bbl (106.29-108.13 intraday range) and Brent trades just under USD 109/bbl (107.79-109.79 intraday range).
  • Spot gold is contained around USD 1820/oz, though it is coming under modest pressure as the DXY picks up most recently.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: April Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 2.6%; YoY, est. 12.2%, prior 12.5%
  • 08:30: April Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 4.5%; YoY, est. 19.2%, prior 18.8%
  • 10:00: May U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 64.0, prior 65.2; Current Conditions, est. 69.3, prior 69.4; Expectations, est. 61.5, prior 62.5
  • 10:00: May U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 5.5%, prior 5.4%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 3.0%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As those working in this industry know, spreadsheet errors can have consequences – often costly ones. My fiancée doesn’t spend as much time on Excel as I do, but with our wedding coming up in July, she’s been using a spreadsheet to keep track of the number of guests. I privately regard this sheet to be an abomination, so in the interests of our future marriage I’ve tried to avoid the subject. But a couple of weeks ago I was told that we needed more guests and had to extend further invites, since we were up against the reception venue’s minimum. This I duly did, although having already invited my friends, I mostly resorted to being a lot more generous on my plus-one policy. At the weekend however, she showed me the spreadsheet. It turned out she hadn’t extended the range on the guest list sum function, and we were already comfortably above what we needed. I won’t tell you how much these extra invites have cost us. Thankfully as a primary school teacher she doesn’t teach Excel to her 5- and 6-year-olds, although I then discovered with even more alarm that she’s considered the spreadsheet expert at her school…

It’s been a costly few weeks in markets too as investors have priced in growing recession risks, and over the last 24 hours we’ve seen some incredible intraday volatility across a range of asset classes. At one point in the New York afternoon, the S&P 500 had been down -1.94% at the lows, which left it just shy of a -20% decline since its all-time closing peak that would mark the formal start of a bear market. But then in the final hour there was a major recovery that meant the index only saw a modest -0.13% fall on the day, even if that still marked a fresh one-year low. Futures markets are implying we’re going to see that rally extended today, with those for the S&P up +0.92% this morning. But even if we do see a recovery of that sort of magnitude, then the major losses we’ve already seen this week mean it would still be the first time in over a decade that the index has posted 6 consecutive weekly declines.

That pattern of deep losses followed by a late recovery was echoed more broadly yesterday, with the NASDAQ paring back losses of more than -2% on the day to eke out a marginal +0.06% advance. For the FANG+ index (-0.30%), the late recovery wasn’t enough to bring it back into positive territory, and there was a significant milestone reached since its latest slump means it’s now more than -40% beneath its all-time high, which surpasses its losses during the Covid selloff of 2020 when it was “only” down by -34% from peak to trough. European equities lost ground too, and the STOXX 600 (-0.75%) similarly saw a second-half recovery, having been as low as -2.41% earlier in the day.

Unlike in April, when the equity declines were triggered by the prospect of a more aggressive Fed tightening cycle and went hand-in-hand with sovereign bond losses, this week’s declines have much more obviously surrounded global growth risks, which you can see in the way that Fed Funds futures are now beginning to take out some of the tightening they’d been pricing in over the year ahead. Only yesterday, the futures-implied rate by the FOMC’s December meeting came down by -5.3bps to still be beneath its level from 3 weeks earlier, which marks a change from the almost relentless march higher we’ve seen over the last 8 months. In fact the only major interruption to that trend so far has come from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late-February, before the inflationary consequences of the conflict reasserted themselves on market pricing.

With investors expecting less monetary tightening and seeking out safe havens, yesterday witnessed a major sovereign bond rally across countries and maturities. The 10yr Treasury yield came down -7.3bps to 2.85%, and at the front-end of the curve, 2yr yields were down -7.8bps to 2.56%. This came on a day with another round of Fed speakers sounding the same tune of late, including Chair Powell who said that +50bp hikes at the next two meetings were probably appropriate. Meanwhile, he sounded an even more pessimistic tone on the path of the economy given the impending tightening, noting that getting inflation back to target would “include some pain” and that whether a soft landing can be arranged is up to matters beyond the Fed’s control.

Over in Europe the declines were even larger, with yields on 10yr bunds (-14.6bps) undergoing their biggest daily move since the start of March, as yields on 10yr OATs (-13.8bps), BTPs (18.4bps) and gilts (-16.5bps) saw similar declines. A noticeable feature of the recent sovereign bond rally is how investors’ expectations of future inflation have come down significantly over recent days, with the 10yr German breakeven falling from a peak of 2.98% on May 2 to just 2.29% yesterday, which is an even faster decline than the one seen during the initial phase of the Covid pandemic in March 2020.

That flight to havens was evident in foreign exchange markets too, where the dollar index strengthened a further +0.97% to levels not seen since 2002. Conversely, that saw the euro close beneath the $1.04 mark for the first time since late-2016, although the traditional safe haven of the Japanese Yen was the top-performing G10 currency yesterday, strengthening +1.27% against the US Dollar and +2.61% against the Euro. When it came to cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin hit an intraday low of $25,425 shortly after the European open, which is the first time it’s traded that low since late 2020, before recovering its losses to end the session higher at $28,546, and this morning it’s rebounded another +6.34% to hit $30,356.

Overnight in Asia we’ve seen a significant rebound in equity markets too, with the Nikkei (+2.52%), the Hang Seng (+2.00%) and the KOSPI (+1.72%) all seeing sizeable advances, and the Shanghai Comp (+0.56%) also posting a solid gain. Those earlier comments from Chair Powell after the US close have supported risk appetite, particularly since he echoed his previous comments about the Fed being on course for further 50bp hikes at the next couple of meetings, rather than moving towards 75bps in the aftermath of the stronger-than-expected CPI reading. A number of yesterday’s other moves have also begun to unwind, with the Japanese Yen down -0.50% against the US Dollar this morning, whilst yields on 10yr Treasuries have risen +3.6bps overnight. Separately in Shanghai, officials said that they planned to stop community spread of Covid-19 and start reopening by May 20, which is the first time that a timeline has been put forward as to when the lockdown might end.

Elsewhere yesterday, there was a significant +13.50% rise in European natural gas futures after Gazprom said that gas flows wouldn’t be able to go through the Yamal pipeline because of Russian-imposed sanctions on European companies. But on the other hand, Bloomberg reported that some EU nations were considering a delay in sanctioning Russian oil in light of Hungarian opposition, and instead pushing ahead with the rest of the sanctions package. There were also further signs of the geopolitical shifts as a result of Russia’s invasion, after Finland’s President and Prime Minister endorsed NATO membership, saying the country should apply “without delay”.

Staying on the political sphere, tensions have continued to fester between the UK and the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol, and yesterday’s statements from the two sides indicated there was a difficult phone call between UK Foreign Secretary Truss and EU Commission Vice President Šefčovič. The UK Foreign Office’s readout of the call said that “if the EU would not show the requisite flexibility … we would have no choice but to act.” Then Šefčovič said in his own statement that it was “of serious concern that the UK government intends to embark on the path of unilateral action.” So one to watch into next week given press reports we could hear more from the UK side then.

Looking at yesterday’s data, the US PPI reading added to the picture of elevated inflationary pressures. The headline monthly gain for April came in at +0.5% as expected, but the March reading was revised up two-tenths to +1.6%, meaning that the year-on-year figure only came down to +11.0% (vs. +10.7% expected). We also had the weekly initial jobless claims for the week through May 7, which came in at 203k (vs. 193k expected). And in the UK, the Q1 GDP reading was a bit below consensus at +0.8% (vs. +1.0% expected), and looking at the monthly reading for March specifically there was actually a -0.1% contraction (vs unchanged expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include Euro Area industrial production for March, along with the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for May. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Kashkari and Mester, as well as the ECB’s Centeno, Nagel and Schnabel.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 29.29 PTS OR 0.69%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 518.43 PTS OR 2.67%    /The Nikkei closed UP 678.93 OR 2.64%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.97%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6,7882    /Oil UP TO 107.57 dollars per barrel for WTI and down TO 109.05 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7882 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8088: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER//

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///SOUTH KOREA

This is will inflation throughout the world:

(zerohedge)

Samsung Set To Imminently Hike Semiconductor Prices By 20%

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 09:05 AM

Samsung Electronics is preparing to increase prices for chip contract manufacturing in the second half of this year which comes as no surprise given skyrocketing cost pressures eating away at the company’s margins. 

Samsung’s contract-based chip prices are set to increase between 15-20% given the level of manufacturing complexity, Bloomberg said, citing people familiar with the matter, adding the new pricing model has been discussed and negotiated with clients. 

Samsung’s decision comes as the cost of energy, raw materials, equipment, freight, and labor are rapidly soaring. The move was “inevitable,” said Masahiro Wakasugi, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst.

Another component driving the price hikes is the ongoing global chip shortage. Then there are lockdowns in China driving lead times — the lag between when a semiconductor chip is ordered and delivered — to 26.6 weeks, a record high. 

Rising chip prices will only increase consumer costs for smartphones, tablets, computers, game consoles, televisions, smart speakers, automobiles, and the list goes on and on. Samsung is the world’s second-largest chip contract manufacturer. 

TSMC, short for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, is the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer and recently notified clients of price increases of 5% to 8% next year, following a 20% price hike last year.

There aren’t alternatives to the world’s largest chipmakers. This means companies that require chips to power their products have no leverage and are stuck with expensive chips, which will only mean the cost of consumer electronics will go higher. 

END

3B  JAPAN

3c CHINA

COVID//LOCKDOWNS/

China Tightens Restrictions On Overseas Travel While Shanghai Aims For ‘Zero COVID’ By Mid-May

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 11:15 AM

In what was interpreted as good news by traders, Shanghai is finally looking to unwind certain lockdown measures, while simultaneously tightening the city’s restrictions on “non-essential” overseas travel for its citizens to help contain the worst coronavirus outbreak the country has seen in the past two years.

China has said it will impose tight restrictions on “non-essential” overseas travel for its citizens to help contain the worst coronavirus outbreak the country has seen.

Shanghai Vice Mayor said the city is aiming to stamp out all community spread of the virus by mid-May and is considering expanding the scale of production resumption, while they will aim to open up, ease traffic restrictions and open shops in an orderly manner, according to the SCMP.

A statement on the agency’s website said the meeting had been called to relay the decisions taken at a meeting of the Politburo Standing Committee chaired by President Xi Jinping on May 5, where the leadership doubled down on China’s zero-COVID policy saying it “will stand the test of time”.

The city, meanwhile, is expected to prioritize resuming classes for grades 9, 11 and 12, while supermarkets, convenience and department stores will resume offline operations in an orderly manner and other services such as hairdressing will open gradually.

Shanghai is to prioritize the resumption of classes for grades 9, 11 and 12, while supermarkets, convenience and department stores will resume operating offline.

The immigration authorities on Thursday said the curbs were designed to stop infections crossing the border and would include a more rigorous approval process for passports and other travel documents and a crackdown on illegal border crossings.

A meeting of the National Immigration Administration on Tuesday heard that China’s COVID situation had reached a “significant and urgent point” and that the city of Beijing was the “most important of the important” places.

END

CHINA/LOCKDOWNS//CREDIT CREATION

China Credit Creation Craters, Sparking Speculation Of A Growth, Stock Bounce

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 03:05 PM

While we wait for China’s economic data dump due Monday, when industrial production and retail sales are expected to crater to deep negative territory as a result of the ongoing covid lockdowns, this morning we got a harsh reminder just how hard the world’s 2nd biggest economy has been hit when Beijing reported that April total social financing and RMB loans came in much below market expectations, even as M2 growth accelerated and was above market expectations on the back of the RRR cut and more expansionary fiscal policy stance.

Here are the details:

  • New CNY loans: RMB 645.4 bn in April, badly missing consensus of RMB 1520bn. Outstanding CNY loan growth: 10.9% yoy in April vs March 11.4% yoy; Overall CNY loans growth decelerated materially and grew 6.6% mom annualized sa from 18.1% in March.
  • Total social financing RMB 910bn in April, badly missing consensus growth of RMB 2200bn; Total social financing (TSF) was well below expectations after a strong acceleration in March. The sequential growth of TSF stock decelerated to 3.9% mom annualized in April, the slowest sequential growth in the past decade.
  • TSF stock growth was 10.2% yoy in April, slower than the 10.6% in March. The implied month-on-month growth of TSF stock decelerated to 3.9% from 14.4% in March.
  • M2: 10.5% yoy in April vs. above consensus of 9.9% yoy. March: 9.7% yoy; M2 year-on-year growth accelerated on the other hand to 10.5% yoy in April, vs 9.7% in March, and expanded by 13.8% in month-over-month annualized terms, vs 24.4% in March.

Among major TSF components, shadow banking credit continued to contract in April at a much faster pace compared with March. Trust, entrusted loans and undiscounted bankers’ acceptance bills fell RMB275bn in April, vs the RMB113bn contraction in March. Based on loans to different sectors, weakness in loan growth was broad-based, with the only exception being bill financing. Corporate mid-to-long term loan growth was 6% vs 22.5% mom annualized in March. Corporate bill financing rose strongly by 102.4% mom annualized from 97.3% in March. On loans to households, total household loans declined by 1.7% month-over-month annualized, vs an expansion of 6.6% in March. PBOC changed their categorization of household loans and now focuses on usage of loans (housing related vs consumption related, for example), rather than by maturity. April data are thus not strictly comparable with March data. However, on a net basis, new mortgages were -61bn RMB in April, in comparison with household new medium to long term loans (which are mostly mortgages) of 492bn RMB in April 2021, or +374bn RMB in March 2022 (NSA basis). Government and corporate bond issuance also slowed in April.

According to Goldman, “the composition of RMB loans suggests corporate loan growth decelerated and household loans stock declined in April”, which is painfully obvious of course. The question is why, and according to the PBOC, credit demand tumbled due to the Covid resurgence which was cited as one main reason behind the weak RMB loans and TSF data. Medium to long term loan growth was still much slower than short term loans (such as bill financing) growth, and loans to the real economy was also much lower than overall RMB new loans (which include lending between financial institutions). “These all implied very weak credit demand despite monetary policy easing”, according to Goldman.

What does China’s collapsing credit data means? Well, as Bloomberg’s Simon White writes, liquidity and lending data in China looks to be forming a trough, which points to a bottom in growth and stocks. However, there are two important caveats:

  1. growth is likely to be lower than its previous trend as internal imbalances rise again; and
  2. any growth is vulnerable to a wage-price spiral if CPI takes off.

Echoing what we wrote above, White writes that on the surface, April lending data for China released today looked dismal, showing a Covid-driven slump for aggregate financing and new CNY loans, “but monthly numbers are noisy and impacted by seasonal effects. Looking at the 1-year aggregate sum’s change over the last year gives a more stable picture, and on this basis new CNY loans look to be bottoming.

Meanwhile, today’s announcement that China will build more Covid hospitals and increased testing suggests they are making the first steps towards “endemicity”, or living with Covid according to White. Moreover, the PBoC has recently introduced new relending programs and further loosened restrictions to aid beleaguered property developers. Lending going forward should thus begin to pick up steam, which points to growth soon turning up.

Still, the total figures mask the sharp decline in lending to the household sector, in a sign imbalances are worsening again. As the Bloomberg strategist explains, a key feature of China’s economy has been to repress the household sector to the benefit of the export-orientated corporate sector. The household sector is a net importer so inhibiting its demand widens the trade surplus. Further household repression has resulted in even larger trade surpluses through the pandemic, which China must foist upon the rest of the world.

Of course, the flipside of trade surpluses is capital outflow, and capital outflow from China has been depressing domestic credit (it will also soon prove a major tailwind to bitcoin once Chinese households with $35 trillion in deposits realize more devaluation is coming and scramble to park their capital offshore using the only possible mechanism available). Rising trade surpluses and falling FX reserves (some of which is due to the rising dollar and rising US yields) betray increasing capital leakage. In an economy with a managed exchange rate and capital controls, capital outflow leads to a destruction of domestic credit.

This is why the yuan has been allowed to weaken, as it lessens the fall in domestic credit from capital outflow. However, as White warns, it also adds to imbalances, and globally it requires a greater trade deficit in the US. These are bad for China’s and the US’s growth in the medium term.

Bottom line: growth in China should soon bottom, but rise at a slower pace than before. Nevertheless, all bets are off if food prices drive an acceleration in China’s CPI – the way they did in 2011 – risking a wage-price spiral, a significantly weaker yuan, and a rise in global trade protectionism.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/EU

Finland/NATO/RUSSIA

If Finland enters NATO, Russia will attack.  It cannot have nuclear warheads 2 minutes to St Petersburg.

(zerohedge)

‘Finland Will Be A NATO Backwater’: Russia Threatens “Military & Technical” Measures If It Enters

THURSDAY, MAY 12, 2022 – 11:20 PM

A Kremlin spokesman earlier in the day warned that Finland joining NATO would “definitely” be a threat that would trigger “retaliatory steps” – but stopped short of identifying specific possible courses of action. “NATO is moving toward us. That’s of course why all of this will warrant a special analysis and the development of necessary measures needed to balance the situation and guarantee our security,” the initial Kremlin response stated.

Later in the day Thursday – a number of hours after Finland’s president Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced the country will apply for NATO membership “without delay” – Russian Ambassador to the EU Vladimir Chizhov elaborated on Moscow’s likely response in an interview with Sky News.

“Russia will be forced to take retaliatory steps, both of military and other nature, in order to curtail the threats that arise to its national security in this regard,” Chizhov stressed in the interview when asked about its neighbor Finland as well as Sweden applying to NATO.

The two countries first sent strong signals regarding this complete U-turn in historic policy last month in response to Russia’s ongoing military aggression against Ukraine.

The Russian ambassador said further in the UK television interview that he’s “deeply disappointed and saddened” by the development, while saying in a somewhat condescending tone that Finland has been “pushing above its weight, having become in the last few decades a major power in promoting European security architecture.”

Further he said the Scandinavian neighbor which shares an 810-mile border with Russia would inevitably become a “NATO backwater” if it does move forward in entering the military alliance. Sky News also quoted Chizov as explaining the following possible change in defense posture:

The ambassador said such a move would “certainly necessitate rethinking of Russian defence posture” but wouldn’t “necessarily [involve] troops and tanks, but certain preparations definitely… like radars, perhaps”.

Russia’s UN ambassador also warned of military consequences in a Thursday statement:

And as for “technical measures” – it could begin here…

So now the Kremlin appears to be threatening the very thing that Finland fears that it says it must joint NATO to prevent in the first place… but Russia is doing so in response to the possibility that Finland will joint NATO, ironically enough in circular tit-for-tat.

“NATO membership would strengthen Finland’s security. As a member of NATO, Finland would strengthen the entire defense alliance,” Finland’s leaders said in a joint Thursday morning statement.

Another question now remains: will Americans or other lead NATO countries and their populations in the alliance be willing to go to war with nuclear-armed Russia in order to defend Finland?

end

FINLAND/RUSSIA

Russia is now prepared to cut gas supplies to Finland today

(Kennedy/OilPrice.com)

Russia Prepares To Cut Gas Supplies To Finland On Friday: Local Media

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

Hours after Moscow warned there would be retaliation for Helsinki’s announcement that it is applying for NATO membership, Finnish media reports that the Kremlin threatened to cut the country off from Russian gas by Friday. Citing unnamed sources, Finland’s Iltalehti reported the Russian warning to politicians, who refrained from specific comment. 

Prior to this warning, the local media outlet noted expectations that Finland would be cut off from Russian gas after May 23rd, when its next contract payment with Gazprom comes due and the country refuses to pay in rubles. In late April, Russia cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria for refusing to pay in accordance with the Kremlin’s ruble scheme.

Speaking to Iltalehti on Thursday, Finnish Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen said he could not confirm the warning.

Parliamentary group chairman Ville Tavio told Iltalehti that working groups had been informed of “various scenarios of Russia’s retaliation”, noting that preparations have already been made.  

Between 60% and 70% of Finland’s natural gas comes from Russia, though the country’s main sources of energy are oil, biomass and nuclear power, with natural gas representing only 5% of the total consumption. According to the Finnish government, renewable energy surpassed fossil fuels and peat in total energy consumption in 2020, leaving the country less dependent on Russian energy sources.

On Thursday, Finland announced their intention to apply for fast-tracked NATO membership due to Russian aggression in Ukraine. Sweden is expected to make its announcement in the coming days, according to the Associated Press

“Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay,” President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin said. “We hope that the national steps still needed to make this decision will be taken rapidly within the next few days.”

Russia has also threatened “military-technical” retaliation against Finland if it joins NATO. 

“Russia will be forced to take retaliatory steps, both of a military-technical and other nature, in order to stop the threats to its national security that arise in this regard,” the Russian foreign ministry said.

end

Russia to cut electricity supplied to Finland tomorrow

(zerohedge)

Russia To Cut Electricity Supplied To Finland Saturday On Heels Of Announced NATO Bid

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 02:45 PM

Russia will cut its delivery of electricity to Finland starting Saturday, RAO Nordic said Friday, which is a subsidiary of Russian state energy holding Inter RAO. It’s calling the stoppage unprecedented.

“We are forced to suspend the electricity import starting from May 14,” RAO Nordic said, explaining as the reason that it had yet to receive payment for volumes sold in May. “RAO Nordic is not able to make payments for the imported electricity from Russia.”

“This situation is exceptional and happened for the first time in over 20 years of our trading history,” RAO Nordic added.

The unprecedented stoppage comes immediately on the heels of Finland’s prime minister and president in a joint announcement Thursday affirming the Scandinavian country’s intent to apply for NATO membership. Sweden too has been coordinating with Helsinki over joining the Western military alliance.

Given Finland relies on Russia for 10% of its electricity supply, the stoppage is not expected to have significant effect – also as nuclear power accounts for over35% of Finland’s electricity needs among five operating nuclear reactors.

The Finnish electricity network operator said it has contingency plans in place:

“We’re prepared for this and it won’t be difficult. We can make do with a bit more imports from Sweden and Norway,” Fingrid’s manager for operational planning Timo Kaukonen told AFP.

While the stoppage is not directly due to Finland’s stated intent to apply for NATO membership, which is expected to drive discussion among the 30-member alliance at its major summit in Madrid, Spain in June – most pundits say the timing to the drastic action seems intent on sending an obvious message:

According to recent data from OilPrice.com, natural gas could eventually be next; however, it too is not heavily relied on by Helsinki – given Finland’s diversified energy resources…

“Between 60% and 70% of Finland’s natural gas comes from Russia, though the country’s main sources of energy are oil, biomass and nuclear power, with natural gas representing only 5% of the total consumption,” the report details. “According to the Finnish government, renewable energy surpassed fossil fuels and peat in total energy consumption in 2020, leaving the country less dependent on Russian energy sources.”

END

UK/SWEDEN

UK and Sweden sign a defense pact

(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)

UK & Sweden Say Relations With Putin Can Never Be Normalized, Sign Defense Pact

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson met with Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson in Sweden on Wednesday and agreed that relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin should never be normalized.

“The leaders agreed that the aftershocks of Putin’s abhorrent invasion of Ukraine had fundamentally changed international security architecture,” a spokesman for Johnson said following the meeting. “They underlined that relations with Putin could never be normalized.”

The statement is the latest example of Western leaders suggesting they want to see Putin removed from office.

On Tuesday, Lithuania’s foreign minister explicitly called for regime change in Moscow, claiming it was the only way for regional countries to be safe from Russia. During his visit to Sweden, Johnson signed a military pact that vowed Britain would come to Sweden’s defense if it was attacked.

“Whether it’s in the event of a disaster or a military attack, what we’re saying today is that upon request from the other party, we would come to the other parties’ assistance,” Johnson said at a press conference with Andersson.

The new pact comes as Sweden and Finland are considering applying to join NATO. Johnson also visited Finland on Wednesday and made a similar pledge to defend the country if it is attacked.

Sweden and Finland are expected to make a decision on joining NATO sometime this week and are seeking security guarantees from alliance members during a potential application period. Moscow has warned against the two nations joining NATO, and Russian officials have said Russia will have to reinforce the over 800-mile border with Finland.

END

GERMANY/RUSSIA

Germany says Russia is weaponizing energy after they cut supplies even though the Germans seized the Gazprom unit

(zerohedge)

Germany Says Russia ‘Weaponizing’ Energy After Gas Supplies Cut To Seized Gazprom Unit

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 05:45 AM

Germany, which has long remained the largest buyer of Russian natural gas, has belatedly and bluntly stated as fact what’s long been among its greatest ‘worst case scenario’ fears, that Moscow is using its energy exports as a “weapon”

However, Moscow is arguing that its latest actions to reduce supplies – estimated by Berlin officials at this point to have been at about a 3% reduction of normal deliveries – is a natural and inevitable response to Germany seizing Gazprom subsidiaries in the country to “ensure supply” against the backdrop of the Ukraine invasion. A month ago, Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habeck justified these provocative moves in saying “we do not allow energy infrastructures in Germany to be subject to arbitrary decisions by the Kremlin.”

And now in a Thursday speech to the lower house of his country’s parliament, Habeck declared the latest Russian action to begin throttling supplies shows that “the confrontation over energy is a weapon.” He added: “Energy can be used powerfully in an economic conflict.”

Habeck further sought to assure German lawmakers and officials as the country continues scrambling to secure alternative supplies that “The situation is that the gas market can compensate for the loss of gas from Russia.”

Bloomberg reviews of the latest major escalatory developments that have triggered the ‘weaponization’ accusation, that “Moscow prohibited dealings with Gazprom Germania GmbH and its various subsidiaries now under the control of Germany’s energy regulator.” Specifically, “That includes energy supplier Wingas GmbH, a European gas storage business, the London-based trading arm of Gazprom and EuRoPol Gaz, owner of the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe pipeline connecting Russia to Germany.”

This after Gazprom Germania was seized by the German state amid heightened pressure for European companies to cut off relations with Russian entities, in an escalation which raised the alarm over whether owners of vital European energy infrastructure would survive. Yesterday Moscow made the dramatic move to impose sanctions on the owner of the Polish part of the Yamal pipeline that delivers gas to Europe.

“We are monitoring the situation closely,” Habeck told lawmakers further. “We have prepared for the situation and I, and the federal network agency, will inform you through the course of the day.”

Suddenly Left-leaning pundits are sounding a lot like Trump circa 2018

Starting in late March, Habeck had moved to activate the “early warning phase” of Germany’s gas emergency law, which was adopted to help ration supplies in the face of a severe shortage.

The decision alerted German consumers and businesses to do what they can to conserve energy.

Habeck issued the warning for fear that Moscow would swiftly move to cut off energy exports to one of its biggest customers in Europe over its refusal to make payment in rubles – a ‘worst case’ fear now being realized as the dreaded ‘weaponization’ scenario appears in full swing.

END

UK/ECONOMY SINKING FAST

UK On Verge Of Recession As Economy Unexpectedly Shrinks

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 02:45 AM

The UK’s economy unexpectedly contracted in March due to high inflation and faltering growth, increasing the country’s odds of slipping into recession much faster than anticipated. 

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the economy contracted by .1% in March. For the quarter, growth printed below expectations at 0.8%. Economists widely expected 1% growth for the quarter, but some feared a recession could be just ahead after the miss. Now economists are wondering how deep will the downturn be. 

“Suddenly, our forecasts that GDP will be flat in both the second quarter and the third quarter seem pretty optimistic. 

“A contraction in GDP or a recession now feels a bit more likely,” Paul Dales, the chief UK economist at the consultancy Capital Economics, told The Guardian

UK’s monthly GDP growth is slipping into the abyss. 

In March alone, automobile sales plunged 15.1%, resulting in an overall 0.2% decline in services output. 

UK recession threats come as stagnation and inflation have unleashed what some are saying is stagflation. 

Last week, the Bank of England said a recession is likely to hit next year, while the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said earlier this week a recession would emerge in the second half of this year. 

Paul Dales, the chief UK economist at Capital Economics, was quoted by the business newspaper City A.M. as saying new ONS figures suggest a recession by the third quarter. He said a slump in discretionary spending “is particularly ominous,” given household incomes have deteriorated at one of the fastest rates ever due to high inflation (now at 7% and could go much higher). 

Bloomberg data shows the Bank of England is on an aggressive hiking path this summer to quell inflation. Hiking into a downturn will add even more pressure on households’ finances. The BoE current target interest rate is 1%, and rate traders believe the central bank will hike through year’s end to reach 2%. 

Recession fears sent the pound to a two-year low. Meanwhile, the dollar hits two-decade highs and continues to benefit from bets of aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

A combination of higher energy prices, a slumping pound, faltering economic growth, weak households, trade restrictions on Russia, and overall elevated inflation have produced a toxic environment for the UK economy that may suggest it’s on the verge of a nasty recession. 

Summing it all up: UK is the ‘most miserable’ since 1994!

END

UK

UK economy faltering fast. Now we see 91,000 jobs axed for the civil service.

Daily mail and special thanks to Robert for sending this to us:

Bloodbath for civil service: 91,000 jobs will be axed in shake-up that could save £3.5bn | Daily Mail Online

Inbox

Robert Hryniak7:21 AM (21 minutes ago)
to

Should be a replica in many other countries

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10811331/Bloodbath-civil-service-91-000-jobs-axed-shake-save-3-5bn.html

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/UK

UK says that Russia is drawing back from Kharkiv in the north

(zerohedge) 

UK Says Russian Drawback In North Proves “Inability To Capture Key Ukrainian Cities”

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 04:15 AM

The United Kingdom has issued a public intelligence update on the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Thursday, which marks 78 days into the conflict, at a moment Kremlin forces have been pushed back from Kharkiv amid an ongoing Ukraine counteroffensive.

The Ministry of Defense in its report assessed that a temporary Russian withdrawal of troops from regions previously captured due a Ukrainian counteroffensive proves Russia’s “inability to capture key Ukrainian cities.”

The intelligence update reads that “Ukrainian forces are continuing to counterattack to the north of Kharkiv, recapturing several towns and villages towards the Russian border.” 

Despite Mariupol in the southeast – in heavily contested Donetsk Oblast being effectively under Russian control – another major city, Kharkiv, which is the country’s second largest with about 1.5 million people, has not fallen to the Russians despite early in the invasion being encircled.

“Despite Russia’s success in encircling Kharkiv in the initial stages of the conflict, it has reportedly withdrawn units from the region to reorganize and replenish its forces following heavy losses,” the Ministry statement continues.

“The withdrawal of Russian forces from the Kharkiv Oblast is a tacit recognition of Russia’s inability to capture key Ukrainian cities where they expected limited resistance from the population,” it added. 

The Russian offensive has appeared stalled near Kharkiv…

A BBC team this week said it has confirmed the Russians have been pushed back from a key village, moving the front line of contact significantly back, after traveling to the recent battle zone:

The village of Ruska Lozova stands at the center of the turn in Ukraine’s response to Russian aggression.

It was recently liberated in a co-ordinated effort led by senior military commanders. Ukrainian troops from territorial defence, the national guard and the regular army are seeking to push the Russians back along a 32-km (20-mile) front line. In the Russian city of Belgorod, just across the border, troops have amassed for a likely counter-offensive.

Speculating on the strategic purpose of the withdrawn forces, the UK defense ministry statement said that Russian troops “will likely deploy to the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River, forming a blocking force to protect the western flank of Russia’s main force concentration and main supply routes for operations in the vicinity of Izyum.” 

end

UKRAINE/WEF

Ukraine Says $8.3BN Spent On War So Far As Zelensky Addresses Davos WEF

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 10:35 AM

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to deliver a virtual address before the Davos, Switzerland based World Economic Forum, where the message is expected to be something along the lines of ‘send more money, or see the global food crisis worsen’ – which is also a theme of US Congressional leaders as they seek to push through the record-breaking $40 billion Ukraine aid package. This as a fresh US forecast expects that wheat production in the war-ravaged country will fall by one-third compared to last year.

Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko unveiled on Thursday that his country has spent $8.3 billion to fight the Russian invasion, according to Reuters. Marchenko described that the funds would have in normal times been used for domestic development, but has now gone toward procuring more weaponry and emergency repairs, as well as handling the refugee crisis of those millions of people displaced within Ukraine.

Also on Friday the Group of Seven foreign ministers will meet for talks in Germany. According to Bloomberg, where Ukraine’s foreign minister is “pushing the group to take steps to allocate seized Russian assets to Kyiv to finance rebuilding.”

But despite the collective Western enthusiasm for punishing Russia and unifying the world against Moscow, there remains a few significant hiccups…

For starters, Hungary and a handful of other smaller nations are holding up Europe’s planned Russian oil embargo, to the point that it may be delayed indefinitely for the sake of implementing other key facets of the sanctions package, as Rabobank observes:

Although the EU has vowed to implement a phased-in oil ban, preferably in the context of a broader sanctions package aimed at Russia, there are now Member States –according to Bloomberg news– that consider “delaying a push to ban Russian oil so they can proceed with the rest of a proposed sanctions package if the bloc can’t persuade Hungary to back the embargo.”

And on the Western military alliance front, Bloomberg has also aptly written that a “Turkish chill hits potential NATO expansion”.

Turkey’s Erdoğan is saying not so fast on the rush to admit Finland and Sweden into NATO, asserting that his country – which represents the second largest NATO military and hosts US nukes – is “not favorable” to the idea.  “Sweden has become a home for PKK and other terror groups. We don’t view their NATO membership positively,” he said earlier in the day.

The move to see both countries, one which shares an over 800-mile border with Russia, enter NATO has intensified since April in direct response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

On Thursday Finland’s president Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced the country will apply for NATO membership “without delay” – explaining that “NATO membership would strengthen Finland’s security. As a member of NATO, Finland would strengthen the entire defense alliance.”

END

Former Russian President Medvedev warns that NATO is risking a full fledged nuclear war

(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)

Top Russian Official Says NATO Risking ‘Full-Fledged’ Nuclear War

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 01:25 PM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who is now the deputy of Russia’s Security Council, warned Thursday that the US and NATO risk a direct conflict with Russia and a “full-fledged” nuclear war by pouring weapons into Ukraine.

The pumping of Ukraine by NATO countries with weapons, the training of its troops to use Western equipment, the dispatch of mercenaries and the conduct of exercises by the countries of the Alliance near our borders increase the likelihood of a direct and open conflict between NATO and Russia instead of their ‘war by proxy,’” Medvedev wrote on Telegram.

“Such a conflict always has the risk of turning into a full-fledged nuclear war,” Medvedev added. “This will be a disastrous scenario for everyone.”

While it’s widely believed that a direct war between the US and Russia could quickly turn nuclear, the risk doesn’t appear to be factored into the Biden administration’s Ukraine policy. Over the past few months, the US has significantly escalated its support to Kyiv in its war against Russia through increased military aid, training, and expanded intelligence sharing.

President Biden has maintained that he won’t send US troops into Ukraine to fight Russia directly, but the proxy war still risks provoking a response from Moscow. Despite the risks, some ultra-hawks in Washington favor a direct conflict with Russia, including Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL).

Kinzinger introduced a bill that would give President Biden war powers if he determined Moscow used chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons in Ukraine, but the legislation failed to gain a single cosponsor. Kinzinger is also a proponent of the US enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine, which would require shooting down Russian warplanes and bombing surface-to-air missiles inside Russia

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE/

Dr Paul Alexander…

Walgreens COVID-19 Index up to 10th May, 2022; see the infections post vaccine and the variant dominance; this data shows the pandemic will last 100 years, will never end, non-neutralizing vaccine!

As you see, double and triple vaccinated more infected than unvaccinated, and higher infection the longer duration > 5 months; these beasts at NIH, CDC, FDA, Pfizer, Moderna has UNLEAASHED hell!

Dr. Paul AlexanderMay 13

If we do not end the vaccine, we must urgently reduce infectious pressure e.g. anti-viral chemoprophylaxis

LikeCommentShare

You’re a free subscriber to Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicine convoy mandate. For the full experience, become a paid subscribe

END

Finally some major lockdown advocates admits the negative impacts were never considered

(Watson/SummitNews)

Lockdown Advocate Admits Negative Impacts Were Never Considered

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A professor who advocated for longer lockdowns in his role as a SAGE government advisor now admits that the negative impacts of lockdowns were never included in SAGE modeling and that they should have been.

Professor John Edmunds was part of the SAGE team that told the government there would be 6,000 Omicron deaths per day in the absence of another lockdown late last year.

In reality, the death toll never got anywhere near that number as the doomsayers were proven spectacularly wrong yet again.

Now Edmunds admits that the economic harm and the knock-on health effects of lockdown were harms that “in principle” could have been factored into models “but in practice they were not.”

The professor called for an extended lockdown in Summer 2021 and said the government was “taking a risk” by lifting restrictions, but now says some of the alarmist death projections put out by SAGE were “truly eye-watering.”

“The epidemiological model is only one component [of decision-making] and I wondered and I worried that we’d had too much weight,” said Edmunds.

“There is of course an enormous economic impact from many of the interventions and other indirect impacts on psychological health and so on. Now these in principle could be included but in practice they were not,” he added.

“Joy shall be in heaven over one sinner that repenteth and all that – but you can’t help feel the recantation is very convenient as we move on from the pandemic and people start to look back with more objectivity at all the crazy, costly things that were done in the name of ‘science’ and at the behest of modellers,” writes Will Jones.

Edmunds is another individual who, having once vehemently advocated for stricter and longer lockdowns, is now having to concede that they were a mistake and is fleeing the sinking ship that is the entire lockdown narrative.

As we recently highlighted, figures from the World Health Organization show that Sweden had fewer COVID deaths per capita than much of Europe despite refusing to enforce strict lockdowns and mask mandates like numerous other nearby countries.

A study published in the Royal Society Open Science journal last month found that lockdowns in the UK caused around 60,000 children to suffer clinical depression.

A major study by Johns Hopkins University earlier this year concluded that global lockdowns have had a much more detrimental impact on society than they have produced any benefit, with researchers urging that they “are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument.”

Lockdown advocates were on the wrong side of history, something that should be paramount if health authorities once again try to lock down parts of society when the next pandemic hits, as Bill Gates has virtually guaranteed us will happen.

*  *  *

end

Just awful!

Russia: Soros, Gates, Hunter Biden, EcoHealth funded Biolabs, Funneled $$$ to Democrats

Inbox

Robert Hryniak2:39 PM (0 minutes ago)
to

This needs a real inquiry.. the question is whether anyone is independent enough with credible standing to do so

GLOBAL ISSUES

VACCINE INJURIES

END

VACCINE IMPACT


China Lockdowns Leading to Total Control of Population as Health Authorities Decide Who Can Participate in Society While Others are Locked up in Quarantine Camps
May 12, 2022 12:17 pm
The lockdowns currently happening in China’s largest cities, which include Shanghai, parts of Beijing, and other major metropolitan areas, continue to be the biggest news story today, even though Chinese authorities are working hard to suppress any news about the killer lockdowns that are leading to suicides, starvation, and mass incarcerations at quarantine “camps”. Even the World Health Organization’s recent criticism of China’s COVID policies is being censored inside China. These massive lockdowns are destroying the economy of China, and everyone around the world will feel its effects in the weeks and months ahead. But besides the economic consequences which will spread beyond China’s borders, we can see in China just what the Globalists have in store for their version of a new society in a New World Order. And while the measures taken to achieve these goals will look different in various countries, we should fully expect that the goals will be the same, which is total control of the population, where governments use medical tyranny to decide who gets to participate in society, and who does not. For example, in certain districts in Shanghai recently they allowed some of the people to leave their homes to make a “privileged” visit to an approved grocery store. The customers have to enter the store in a carefully controlled group, show their passes and an “invitation card” issued by the store, and have a negative “nucleic acid” test result, then scan a “location code” and then pass temperature and mask checks. Shopping time is limited to 40 minutes per group, and then the store has to be disinfected for 20 minutes before the next group enters. This is the “new norm” as China is building 9000 permanent PCR testing stations for “life after lockdowns,” where anyone who wants to enter any public space must take a PCR test and have a negative result. So for everyone outside of China, this is your warning to prepare now if you want to resist whatever tyrannical actions that are being planned for your country, if you don’t want to give the State total control of your life.Read More..
.A Judge Finally Called BS on “Shaken Baby Syndrome”
May 12, 2022 3:42 pm
Some of the most tragic stories we have covered over the years have been about parents and caregivers being wrongly convicted for “child abuse” through what is known as “Shaken Baby Syndrome” (SBS). Doctors and other experts who expose the junk science behind SBS and testify in court have estimated that tens of thousands of parents and caregivers are sitting in prisons wrongly convicted for this failed medical theory. We have compiled an entire eBook on this topic documenting just how we have arrived at this unjust practice that allows the medical kidnapping of children and false incarceration of parents, and we usually sell it for $9.99 but for a limited time we are offering it for free. Fortunately, some judges are now recognizing that SBS is based on junk science, and many cases are beginning to be overturned.  Elizabeth Weill-Greenberg writing for The Appeal brings us a report of one judge in New Jersey who is speaking out
.Read More..


END

Michael Every//

Michael Every on the day’s most important topics

Rabo: Powell Is More Concerned With Repairing Past Mistakes Than The Consequences Of His Current Actions

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 10:21 AM

By Elwin de Groot and Bas van Geffen of Rabobank

“If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, we have at least to consider the possibility that we have a small aquatic bird of the family Anatidae on our hands” – Douglas Adams

There are several assets that may have managed to pass this duck test in more opportune market environments. However, the true test is usually when the sea is less smooth sailing. On 16 September 2008 the Reserve Primary Fund, a money market fund aimed at retail investors, saw its Net Asset Value fall to $0.97 a share, below the $1 value it was as supposed to have as a protective floor. It was a historic moment and the parting shot for significant outflows in money market funds and another lurch towards a long road of rebuilding trust.

For those who are in the business long enough, the current shockwaves reverberating through the crypto market may sound all too familiar. TerraUSD and other stablecoins made headlines this week and roiled cryptomarkets as they rapidly came under such pressure that their promised one- for-one pegs to the US dollar failed miserably. And since cryptos are not backed by underlying ‘traditional’ financial assets, unlike MMFs, the uncoupling with the dollar was even more volatile. In the end, the only buck that talks like a buck, holds value like a buck and trades like a buck is the US dollar.

Indeed, most other currencies were also struggling to keep up with the USD’s strength. EUR continued its slide and fell below 1.04, even though the list of ECB officials throwing their weight behind a July rate hike keeps growing with Peter Kazimir openly supporting such a move yesterday. Nonetheless, money markets lowered their rate hike expectations significantly, particularly for next year. It appears that stagnation concerns are currently outweighing inflation, with markets now doubting how long the ECB has before the policy tightening window closes – something we have been arguing for quite some time now.

Powell’s reaffirmation in a public radio interview yesterday that the Fed is likely to raise rates by a half percentage point at each of its next two meetings may not be feed for the hawks, but his acknowledgment that “[…] if you had perfect hindsight you’d go back and it probably would have been better for us to have raised rates a little sooner”, still backs those who believe the Fed is now more concerned with repairing past mistakes than the medium-term consequences of its actions.

A joint statement by the Finnish president and prime minister that the country should join NATO may also be weighing on EUR. In what seems to be a final bid to deter the applications, Russia has upped its threats that the country “will be forced to take retaliatory steps, both of a military-technical and other nature” if Finland joins the alliance. One of these other measures could be cutting the Nordic country off from Russian gas, which could happen as early as today according to Finnish newspapers. Although gas makes up for a relatively small share of Finland’s energy mix, it could hit some key industries, including a leading producer of packaging materials. This could have an economic impact extending far beyond Finland’s borders, especially in an environment where global supply chains are already stressed beyond breaking point.

Yesterday Germany accused Russia of using energy as a weapon. The country has come a long way from its “Wandel durch Handel” policy and strong support for Nordstream II, but the EU requiring unanimity for big decisions with a foreign policy element, such as sanctions, shows that its weight is not always enough to make quick decisions. Although the EU has vowed to implement a phased-in oil ban, preferably in the context of a broader sanctions package aimed at Russia, there are now Member States –according to Bloomberg news– that consider “delaying a push to ban Russian oil so they can proceed with the rest of a proposed sanctions package if the bloc can’t persuade Hungary to back the embargo.”

Such an oil embargo would likely push the Eurozone and most of its member states into a recession, as we discussed at length here. So some opposition and discussion about its details was always to be expected. But the risk of disentangling the oil ban and the other sanctions may extend those discussions about the details of the ban and thereby delay things further, sending a
signal of weakness. As such, it is no surprise that Russia seems to be taking the current window of opportunity to drive a further wedge between member states. We still assume (and believe), though, that the EU will eventually succeed in getting Hungary on board.

Meanwhile member states are stepping up measures to soften the huge impact of high energy costs on households – ranging from lower energy duties and taxes to lump-sum payments to households and businesses. In a latest attempt to mitigate the rise in energy bills, Spain and Portugal drafted a plan to cap the gas price per megawatt hour that feeds combined cycle and cogeneration plants. This will drive down the average price of electricity in the wholesale market, which in turn drives the price of regulated energy contracts. The plan has already been approved by Brussels and should be implemented in the countries “as soon as possible”. Our economist Maartje Wijffelaars thinks this could reduce Spanish inflation by as much as 1.4 percentage points in 2023 and provide a growth boost of several tenths of a percentage point. The key question, though, is the financing of these plans. Both countries have said they would do so in a budget neutral way, but that seems an utopian assumption.

Day ahead

Market participants will be watching whether the recent crypto turmoil feeds into other asset classes. Yesterday’s US market session did indicate that it may be too early to duck the ‘greenback’. The NASDAQ index, which has shown remarkable positive correlation with the crypto sell-off in recent weeks, managed to pare earlier losses and was even able to end the session on a slight positive note.

Which is not to say that Bitcoin losses aren’t painful for some; take El Salvador. As Bloomberg reports, the nation lost about $40 million with crypto since September, an amount almost equal to the next coupon payment on its foreign debt. But this –in our view– only highlights the risks of a strong dollar for emerging markets: the list of emerging market currencies that has not depreciated against the USD over the past month is scant.

In terms of economic data, it’s a quiet day. Industrial output in the Eurozone is expected to have declined sharply in March (-2% m/m expected), as materials shortages and high input costs bite, whilst demand, such as from China, likely weakened considerably during that month.

In the US, markets will be keeping an eye on the US’s import and export price data. These data underscore the contrast with Europe, which is really hit by a historic terms of trade shock. In the US, though, export prices are expected to have risen by 19.2% y/y in April, outstripping import prices by almost 7 percentage points! That, doesn’t mean that households aren’t feeling the pinch. Indeed, later in the day, the preliminary release of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey should shed more light on that question.

7. OIL ISSUES

OPEC+ Misses Production Target By Whopping 2.7 Million Bpd

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 07:30 AM

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

OPEC continues to undershoot its oil production target in the OPEC+ deal, failing in April to boost output as much as required by the agreement.

All 13 members of OPEC – including Iran, Libya, and Venezuela exempted from the OPEC+ deal – saw their production rise by just 153,000 barrels per day (bpd) collectively, to 28.648 million bpd in April, the organization’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) showed on Thursday.

The top three OPEC producers, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE, saw the highest increases in their respective oil production last month, while output in Libya plunged by 161,000 bpd to below 1 million bpd, at 913,000 bpd, according to OPEC’s secondary sources.

Libyan oilfields and terminals have again been under blockade in recent weeks amid protests, clashes, and disputes over the distribution of oil revenues in the country with two rival governments, with incumbent Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah refusing to step down for newly sworn-in eastern Prime Minister Fathi Bashaga.

Excluding Libya and the other two producers exempted from the OPEC+ deal, the ten OPEC members bound by the agreement saw their collective production at 24.464 million bpd in April, OPEC’s figures showed. This compares with a collective quota for OPEC-10 of 25.315 million bpd for last month.

The gap is more than 800,000 bpd, mostly due to severe underperformance from African members Angola and Nigeria, which have been pumping 300,000 bpd-400,000 bpd below quotas each, for months, due to a lack of investment and capacity.

Per OPEC’s secondary sources, the biggest OPEC producer, Saudi Arabia, raised its production by 127,000 bpd to 10.346 million bpd in April, versus a quota nearly 100,000 bpd higher – 10.436 million bpd. The Kingdom, however, self-reported to OPEC higher production, one of 10.441 million bpd.

Image source: https://commoditycontext.com

Secondary sources showed that OPEC’s second-largest producer, Iraq, boosted production by 103,000 bpd to 4.405 million bpd, nearly reaching its April quota of 4.414 million bpd.

Last week, the wider OPEC+ group agreed to leave its production plan unchanged, aiming to boost crude oil production in June by 432,000 bpd, in a move widely expected by the market. While OPEC+ is sticking to its policy of modest monthly increases, many of its members are not pumping to their quotas and the group is estimated to be around 1.5 million bpd below its quota.

END   

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0387 UP 0.0009 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN 

USA/ YEN 129.06   DOWN 0.0015 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2189 DOWN   0.0015

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 29.29 POINTS UP 0.69%

 Hang Sang CLOSED  UP 518.43 PTS OR 2.67%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  1.97%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 518.43 PTS OR 2.67%   

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 29.27 PTS UP 0.68% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.97% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  UP 678.93 OR 2.64%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1815.80

silver:$20.75

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 104.79  DOWN 11  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.05%  UP 11  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.243% UP 0    AND 9/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.96%// UP 7   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 2.84  UP 12   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +0.944.%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0414  UP 0.0035    or 35 basis points

USA/Japan: 129.20UP .605  OR YEN DOWN 61  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2238 UP 34  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP .0068 OR 93 BASIS pts up to 1.2932

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP 6.7890  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.8000

TURKISH LIRA:  15.47  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.243

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 9  IN basis points from THURSDAY at  2.908% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.060 UP 9 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 104.52 DOWN 37   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 188.61 PTS OR 2.61%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 286.31  POINTS OR 2.08%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 155.39 PTS OR 2.51% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED  UP 136.50 OR 1.66%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 458.45 PTS OR  1.95%

WTI Oil price 110.13   12: EST

Brent Oil:  110.95 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  64.41   DOWN 1 & 1/10       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +0.944

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0399 UP   .0022   OR UP 22 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2235 UP .0032  or  32 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 129.31 DOWN 0.95//YEN UP 95 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2931 DOWN .0095 (CDN dollar UP 95 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 110.18

Brent OIL:  111.48

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.938 UP 12 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.090  UP 12  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 15.48

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA///USA/ ROUBLE:  64.54 DOWN  1 AND 1/4 ROUBLES (ROUBLE DOWN 1 1/4 ROUBLES/USA

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 466.30 PTS OR 1.47%

NASDAQ 100 UP 441.90 PTS OR 3.70%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 29.23 DOWN 2.54 PTS (7.99%)

GLD: 168.79 DOWN1 38 PTS OR 0.81%

SLV/ 19.42 UP 30 PTS OR 1.57%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

“Terrible Week” Ends With Strong Dead Cat Bounce As Bear Market Marches On

Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 04:07 PM

Photo courtesy of @johnhackerla

Wall Street is ready to close the books on yet another ugly, chaotic week, the sixth week in a row – the longest negative stretch since 2008 – that has seen the S&P slide, in fact, the S&P has seen weekly gains in just 4 of the past 14 weeks.

Granted today’s relief rally means that we narrowly avoided the worst week for stocks since Jan 21, but it was touch and go there for a while there with the S&P yesterday literally tagging a 20% bear market drop when spoos slumped as low as 3,855 – the trigger for a bear market from the S&P’s Jan ATH, and new 52 week lows on the Nasdaq soaring to 1,271, the most since the January crash…

… before bouncing hard today, to close above 4,000.

 

And so, as Oanda’s Edward Moya puts it, “a terrible week ends on a positive note” as investors took comfort from a round of Fed speak that suggested financial markets won’t have to price in even more tightening of financial conditions over the next couple of FOMC decisions. Fed’s Daly supported the idea of sticking with 50 basis-point rate hikes at the next two meetings, even as Powell yesterday reiterated his support for raising rates at the June and July policy meetings, while reassuring that bigger hikes are off the table for now, but obviously they would do more if the data comes in worse than expected.  

To be sure, with stocks massively oversold, it was only a matter of time before we got a powerful bounce, and today was the day when hope that the selling pressure and market capitulation had peaked combined with optimism that China’s COVID situation is not worsening…

… and sent every sector…

… and every major index sharply higher, led by the Nasdaq which has been hammered the most in recent months.

Could it be that stocks finally bottomed yesterday? That is the $6.4 trillion question (roughly how much market cap US stocks have lost since March), and as we discussed in “”Are We There Yet”: Has The Market Hit Peak Capitulation“, it’s probably too early to call it the end of the bear market. Still, some Wall Street strategists were hopeful:

  • “Much speculative froth has already been removed from the market,” wrote Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “So, we advise against a hasty exit. Our central scenario is also that a recession will be avoided over the next 12 months. However, investors should continue to brace for high levels of volatility.”
  • “We’ve certainly revalued the stock market in a big way,” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, told Bloomberg Television and Radio. “Really great fear on Main Street, on Wall Street, combined with, I think, ongoing good fundamentals — including strong balance-sheets in the household sector, the corporate sector and the banking industry — I think that’s a ‘dynamite’ combination you have to buy on.”
  • “Investor sentiment is at extreme levels and technical indicators are universally negative,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide. “This reflects the degree of pessimism embedded in the market, setting the stage for a bounce from oversold levels, which could be expected in the coming weeks.”
  • “There was a sense of calm in the markets, but again without any fundamental news to suggest this is perhaps the bottom,” wrote Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at City Index and FOREX.com. “Stocks have struggled to sustain any recovery attempts as traders have been quick to take profit on rebounds amid a bearish macro backdrop.”

Still, putting today’s rally in context, keep in mind that this may well be just another bear market rally. And speaking of bear markets, well there’s plenty of those around the world today.

A part of today’s reversal may have to do with rates, which after tumbling in recent days on speculation of an imminent recession, moved higher and closed at 2.94%, up from yesterday’s 2.82% low (after hitting a multi-year high of 3.20% earlier this week).

While stocks have had a tough time rising in 2022, the same can not be said of crude oil, gasoline or diesel, and crude prices again rallied hard on optimism over China’s COVID situation, sending both gasoline and diesel to new all time highs.

As Oanda notes, “the crude demand outlook is not going to fall apart as the US enters peak driving season and as European air travel remains solid. The focus for much of the week has been on the EU’s inability to reach agreement on a Russian oil ban, which suggests we won’t have an immediate shock to the oil market.”

In FX, after relentless gains over the past year pushed the dollar to the highest level since the panic March 2020 scramble for dollar, we observed some modest dollar weakness which also helped support the move higher across all commodities, including oil prices. ​ Some traders believe we may have seen a short-term peak in the dollar, but that might only provide temporary relief.

There was some much needed stability in cryptos which after suffering their worst week in years as the infamous Terra and Luna algo-stables imploded, leading to tens of billions in losses, finally managed to find a modest bid in a day when not a single “stablecoin” cratered to zero.

But while cryptos finally had an up day, the same can not be said for gold, which extended its recent plunge and closed at the lowest level since February and is now red for the year.

END

I) /MORNING TRADING/

II)USA data

US Import/Export Prices Rise Less Than Expected In April

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 08:37 AM

After a busy week for ‘inflation’ indicators (both CPI and PPI rose more than expected), import and export prices rose less than expected in April.

  • US Import prices rose 12.0% YoY in April (slower than the +13.0% in March and below the +12.3% expected)
  • US Export prices rose 18.0% YoY in April (slower than the +18.6% in March and below the +19.2% expected)

The inflation indicators, however, remain near decade highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Import prices from China have been exploding higher as Beijing appears to be exporting inflation to the rest of the world…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that China’s credit impulse has drastically shrank in recent months. Historically that has been a lead indicator for import/export prices inflation…

Source: Bloomberg

If that relationship holds, then we indeed have seen ‘peak inflation’ for this cycle. But have the disruptions in the global supply chain broken this relationship?

end

UMich Sentiment Slumps Back To 11 Year Lows As Inflation Fears Surge

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 10:07 AM

After April’s modest bounce (off decade lows), UMich Sentiment Survey was expected to fall back a little… instead it puked to new cycle lows… The headline sentiment index plunged to 59.1 from 65.2 in April, its lowest since 2011. A gauge of current conditions dropped to 63.6, the lowest in 13 years, while a measure of future expectations declined 6.2 points, erasing most of April’s gains.

Source: Bloomberg

These declines were broad based and visible across income, age, education, geography, and political affiliation–continuing the general downward trend in sentiment over the past year.

Consumers’ assessment of their current financial situation relative to a year ago is at its lowest reading since 2013, with 36% of consumers attributing their negative assessment to inflation.

“Inflation remains on the forefront of consumers’ minds,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

“They mentioned inflation throughout the survey, whether the questions referred to their own personal financial situations, their outlook for the economy, or buying conditions.”

The median expected year-ahead inflation rate was 5.4%, little changed over the last three months, and up from 4.6% in May 2021. The mean was considerably higher at 7.4%, reflecting substantial variation in price changes across types of goods and services, and in household spending patterns. At the same time, long term inflation expectations remain well-anchored with a median of 3.0%, settling within the 2.9 to 3.1% range seen over the last 10 months.

Buying conditions for durables reached its lowest reading since the question began appearing on the monthly surveys in 1978, again primarily due to high prices.

Americans’ view of their current financial situation compared to a year ago is at its lowest reading since 2013, Hsu said. Nearly half of respondents don’t expect their incomes to keep pace with inflation over the next 12 months.

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

iiia) USA inflation// commodity//SHIPPING commentaries//LOG JAMS//”DIESEL

Diesel to be rationed on the east coast

(zerohedge)

“Diesel To Be Rationed On East Coast This Summer,” Warns US Oil Billionaire 

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 07:00 AM

Billionaire refinery and fuel station owner John Catsimatidis warned that the East Coast might experience diesel shortages this summer as inventories hit multi-decade lows and refining capacity slumps. 

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see diesel being rationed on the East Coast this summer.

“Right now, inventories are low, and we may see a shortage in coming months,” Catsimatidis, CEO of United Refining Co., told Bloomberg

Catsimatidis’ warning comes as East Coast diesel inventories have fallen to the lowest levels since 1990. National stocks are around a two-decade low. 

Tight fuel supplies are due to many factors. Two major ones are declining refinery capacity on the East Coast and increased fuel shipments to Europe

Diesel prices have risen for the past 17 days and hit a new record of $5.557 a gallon on Thursday, according to American Automobile Association. Gas prices are also at a new record of $4.418. 

The billionaire’s warning follows a report from logistics firm FreightWaves of “3 very large trucking fleets” preparing for diesel pumps at fuel stations to run dry across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions this summer. 

Founder and CEO of FreightWaves Craig Fuller tweeted a few pictures of notifications from fleet operators, warning their drivers about “imminent” diesel shortages. 

The East Coast diesel shortage situation appears dire as now an oil/gas billionaire has confirmed what trucking fleets are warning about. 

end

IIIB) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

Musk is still committed to the deal

(zerohedge)

Twitter Shares Rebound As Musk Says He Is “Still Committed” To Deal

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 07:58 AM

Update (0750ET): Twitter shares are bouncing back now that Musk has clarified that the deal saga isn’t over yet: on the contrary, Musk just clarified that he is “still committed to the acquisition”.

Twitter shares trading in the premarket have rallied on the clarification.

* * *

Two weeks ago, after Twitter reported disappointing earnings and admitted that it was “overestimating” millions of users since 2019, we asked whether this “merits a purchase price adjustment.”

A few days later, noted short-seller Hindenburg Research picked up on this and in a report warned that Twitter is overpriced and that there is “significant risk” that the deal could get repriced lower.

Fast forward to today, when amid growing speculation that Elon Musk’s deal to buy Twitter might collapse, that he might walk away, or hold out for a better price, as the recent turmoil in markets – especially for tech stocks – have caused equity valuations to re-rate lower en masse, Musk has confirmed just that on Twitter.

Musk posted the comments about the deal on Twitter (where else?), and referenced a Reuters report citing Twitter claiming that fake accounts represented less than 5% of users…

… With Musk clearly implying that Twitter is lying and that this number is largely off.

Twitter shares tumbled as much as 21% in pre-market trading in New York, while Tesla shares were up more than 6% on the news as investors hoped that Tesla shares would now no longer be at risk due to their status as collateral.

It remains to be seen if this is just an honest request for post-deal diligence by Musk or just the first overture in repricing a deal, where there is a $1 billion break up fee, which we are confident lawyers on both sides will be happy to litigate over the coming years. Meanwhile, if Musk does drop the deal, with so many Twitter employees already quitting, will there be a company left for anyone to run in a few months?

Even Wall Street is starting to pounce: Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives writes that the Street is likely to view the deal as falling apart or Musk walking away, although Ives suggests he could also be negotiating for a lower deal price.

“The nature of Musk creating so much uncertainty in a tweet (and not a filing) is very troubling to us and the Street and now sends this whole deal into a circus show with many questions and no concrete answers”.

As for Twitter’s few remaining employees…

END.

A very important read from Brandon Smith…

The Fed Is Taking The Punch Bowl Away – But The Inflation Crisis Will Continue To Grow

May 12, 2022

By Brandon Smith

Four years ago the overall sentiment among most alternative and mainstream economists was that the Federal Reserve would NEVER hike interest rates, taper stimulus or reduce their balance sheet into economic weakness. In fact, this was one of the few viewpoints that the mainstream media and independent economists actually agreed on. A few of us had different ideas, though.

The argument is based on a dangerous assumption – That the Fed’s goal is purely to prop up and extend the lifespan of the US economy and stock markets. If you have been tracking equities in the Dow or the Nasdaq for the past decade, then that might seem like a safe bet. For several years the central bank has consistently added stimulus or cut rates whenever stocks started to drop more than 10%, and this is what launched that famous investor mantra “Buy The F’ing Dip.” It was a sure thing; all you had to do was buy stocks after a correction of around 10% and the Fed would come in to save the day with more inflationary QE.

However, things change and it is foolish to assume that the Fed actually cares about maintaining the US economy. If they did care, they would not have tried to hide the inflation threat for so long. Hiding it hurts the US far more than admitting to it as soon as possible.

My position on the Fed is the same as it has always been: The Federal Reserve is a suicide bomber. It is a useful weapon for the globalists at the BIS, the IMF, the WEF, etc. Those globalists want a new financial crisis so that they can implement global changes to the way money works and the way various national economies function (the Great Reset). They want a single global financial authority and a one world digital currency system. They want to be able to dictate all trade around the planet using a single mechanism.

In order to achieve these ends, they need the Fed to blow up the US economy, and that is exactly what they have done; most people just don’t realize it yet.

As I noted in my article ‘The Fed’s Catch-22 Taper Is A Weapon, Not A Policy Error’, published last year:

“If the Fed raises interest rates into weakness and tapers asset purchases, then we may see a repeat of 2018 when the yield curve started to flatten. This means that short term treasury bonds will end up with the same yield as long term bonds and investment in long term bonds will fall. A dumping of long term bonds causes a decline in currency value and a flood of dollars back to the US. Result? Inflation.

No matter what the Fed does the consequence will be inflationary/stagflationary. The only difference is that if they taper there will also be an immediate decline in stocks and the overall crash will happen faster. The presumption by some is that a reversal in stocks will lure more money into the dollar, and this might happen for a short period of time. However, as mentioned if the yield curve flattens or there is instability in Treasury bonds there will be no saving the dollar either…”

The only question was one of timing. When would the Fed try to pull the plug and allow the inflationary disaster to unfold without hiding it any longer? Well, now we know…

As I have been predicting, the Fed is embarking on an active campaign to hike interest rates by 50 bps or larger per meeting (including potential emergency meetings). Despite the hawkish tapering presented by the Fed, CPI prints continue to rise and now global bankers (and even Joe Biden) are suddenly admitting that inflation is hitting crisis levels after claiming all last year that the problem was “transitory.”

Some members of the Fed have sought to temper concerns about high rates by claiming that these hikes will be limited to around 2% – 3%. This is likely a lie. The jump in the US money supply and the level of inflation I see indicates that interest rates of 2% to 3% will do NOTHING to stop the crisis. The true inflation data collected by tracking sites like Shadowstats.com also supports this position. The Fed will use the ongoing price increases and stagflationary pressures as an excuse to continue hiking rates well beyond 3%.

The money supply issue is key here, because the Fed does not acknowledge price inflation so much as they use money supply as their rationale for changing policy.

It’s not a rule but it is certainly a habit that the Fed likes to change the way they calculate inconvenient economic stats whenever there is a major crisis. They changed the way inflation was measured in the 1980’s after the near disaster under Jimmy Carter (not his fault really, it was Nixon and the Fed completely removing the dollar from the gold standard a few years earlier that actually caused it). They have also changed the way GDP is adjusted multiple times, and they have changed how official unemployment is reported. In most cases, these changes are designed to HIDE a problem rather than trying to gain more accurate data.

For example, the Fed ended its reporting of M3, which is a more fine tuned measure of the total money supply of US dollars circulating around the world (they claimed M2 was just as good). This measurement was inconvenient to the Fed because inflationary policies are ever present and accurate reporting might cause “alarm” within the American public. So, they simply stopped making the data available.

Maybe it’s just a coincidence, but the Fed ended M3 in 2006 right before the credit crisis of 2007/2008 began, and right before they introduced tens of trillions of fiat dollars in bailouts and QE stimulus. One might think they KNEW a debt implosion was coming and that massive inflationary policies would be the response…

Another change has been made to M1 and M2 calculation (a less accurate measures of US money supply), and this was done in 2020, right in the midst of the covid pandemic response. Strangely, this time the Fed’s changes involved adding savings deposits from smaller accounts to the overall money supply data, which means the reported money supply jumped substantially.

Why did they do this? I have a couple theories.

Theory #1: In 2020 the Fed was already in the midst of one of the most pervasive stimulus programs since the bailouts of 2008/2009. They created over $6 trillion in new money in a single year, and that’s just the official number, not accounting for overnight loans and other programs. This money was injected directly into the general economy and into average people’s accounts, as well as into the coffers of international corporations.

It is possible the Fed changed how they calculate M1 and M2 because they wanted to hide the true amount of dollars they were creating from thin air. If you try to make the argument that the Fed caused our current inflationary crisis, and you use M1 or M2 as an example of this, the central bankers can now say “Hey, that big jump in the money supply is not because of our fiat printing, we added savings accounts to the calculation and that’s why it’s so high.”

Of course, then you would have to believe that the dollars being held in small savings accounts across the country is enough to multiply the total money supply by FIVE TIMES. Yeah, I don’t think so. To summarize, the Fed changed its data reporting in a negative way on purpose in order to obscure the role they are playing in the inflationary disaster now unfolding.

Theory #2: The central bank WANTS to raise interest rates into economic weakness without argument. So, they adjusted the money supply calculations to be slightly more honest. Whether or not this giant leap in M1 and M2 in 2020 is due to savings accounts being added or due to elicit Fed printing doesn’t matter. The point is, the Fed intends to jack up interest rates and taper in the extreme while GDP and Retail are in decline and while wages are becoming stagnant. It’s the same thing the Fed did at the onset of the Great Depression, which made the depression far worse than it would have been otherwise.

That is to say, the Fed is seeking to sabotage our economy, but they need the data to justify their actions. They need the data to more honestly reflect the inflation threat so that they can hike rates and taper into economic weakness while avoiding any blame for the inevitable consequences.

In either case, the Fed’s actions suggest that inflation is going to continue unabated, they know this is going to happen, and they are merely positioning themselves to deflect blame.

The argument among independent and mainstream economists alike will now be that the Fed will “capitulate” and reverse course on tapering as soon as they “realize their error.” Sorry, but the central bankers are well aware of what they are doing. I suspect some liberty movement people want to believe the Fed will continue stimulus measures because they want the gold and silver market price to go up.

Don’t worry, prices will go up eventually because there is zero chance that the Fed will stop inflation/stagflation with a 2%-3% interest rate hike. Also, as the economic war with the East continues to heat up, nations like the BRICS will continue to dump the dollar as the world reserve. The physical price of gold and silver will decouple from the manipulated paper ETF price. It already happened in 2020- 2021, and it will happen again soon.

Mainstream financial commentators want to believe the Fed will capitulate because they desperately want the party in stock markets to continue, but the party is over. Sure, there will be moments when the markets rally based on nothing more than a word or two from a Fed official planting false hopes, but this will become rare. Ultimately, the Fed has taken away the punch bowl and it’s not coming back. They have the prefect excuse to kill the economy and kill markets in the form of a stagflationary disaster THEY CAUSED. Why would they reverse course now?

Just remember WHO is really to blame for the mess as prices continue to spike and the economy destabilizes. There needs to be a reckoning, and central bankers should not be allowed to escape without punishment.

If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch. Learn more about it HERE

-END-

FAA rejects Boeing’s 787 certification

(zerohedge)

Boeing Tumbles After FAA Rejects 787 Certification

FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2022 – 12:57 PM

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration has reportedly told Boeing that the documentation it submitted to win approval to resume 787 deliveries to airlines is incomplete.

Reuters’ Eric Johnson and David Shepardson report that the FAA identified a number of omissions in Boeing’s documentation, submitted in late April, and has sent portions of it back to the planemaker.

Boeing Chief Executive Dave Calhoun highlighted the submission in the company’s April 27 earnings call, calling it a “very important step” and saying it was preparing the first 787s for delivery, but stopped short of providing a date.

The reaction was swift as this potentially means more delays for deliveries…

There was one thing that we can learn from this episode – algos don’t read Reuters…

Trade accordingly.

iv)swamp stories

END

The King Report (including swamp stories)

The King Report May 13, 2022 Issue 6759Independent View of the News
@charliebilello: This is the 2nd worst start to a year for the S&P 500 in history: -17.4% in the first 90 trading days. (Only 1932, the nadir of The Great Depression is worse.)  https://t.co/tif178b7WG
 
April PPI: +0.5% m/m as expected; 11.0% y/y, 10.7% because March was revised to 1.6% from 1.4%. Core 0.4% m/m, 0.6% m/m exp; 8.8% y/y, 8.9% exp.  March revised to 1.2% from 1%.  The Final Demand Goods component soared 1.3%.
 
Biden administration cancels oil and gas lease sales in Alaska, Gulf of Mexico
The Interior Department will not move forward with planned oil and gas lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska’s Cook Inlet, it announced Wednesday night… (Economic sabotage to appease leftists!)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-administration-cancels-oil-and-gas-lease-sales-in-alaska-gulf-of-mexico/ar-AAXb2bi
 
GOP Sen. @TomCottonAR: Gas prices are at a record high, and Biden just canceled oil and gas leases in Alaska and the Gulf. Joe Biden is directly responsible for the high cost of gas.
 
Pelosi Bashes ‘Big Oil’, Pitches Plan to Make Gas Price Increases Illegal https://t.co/ZT4qmypOcX
 
BN: USDA Forecasts US Corn Production to Decline Versus Last Year More Expected by Analysts
 
Gasoline hit an all-time high on Thursday.  The optics of Biden’s oil & gas drilling lease cancellation is horrendous.  Plus, grains soared on Thursday; KC wheat went limit up.
 
US Mortgage Rates Rise to 5.3%, Highest Level Since July 2009
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-mortgage-rates-rise-5-140000823.html
Yellen: Have Been Episodes When Treasury Liquidity Dried Up – BBG (That’s what you get when central banks corner a market.  Now do ESMs!)
 
The Senate confirmed Powell (80-19) to a 2nd term as Fed Chair.  He has no excuse to be cowardly now.
 
The Fed accepted $1.9 TRILLION at its Reverse Repo operation.  That’s a lot of excess liquidity!
 
CEO torches Biden over EV initiative, warns him to ‘take a step back’
US lithium-ion battery backup, ‘dependency’ impacts other ‘critical infrastructure,’ 6K CEO said
     “Our dependency on foreign countries for lithium-ion batteries has the potential of being actually worse than the semiconductor issue we’re seeing today,” Bent warned.  The CEO further scolded the president, claiming batteries are required for more “critical infrastructure” than EVs…
https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/biden-should-take-step-back-on-ev-initiative-6k-ceo-warns?intcmp=tw_fbn
@jennybethm: A data dump from the FDA has revealed there were 1,223 reported deaths within the first 90 days of the COVID vaccine rollout. Pfizer’s Cumulative Analysis of Post-Authorization Adverse Events has also revealed that there were 42,086 reported adverse events. Wow.
 
Aaron Kheriaty, MD @akheriaty: They can’t hide the bodies. Excess mortality by age in quarter three of 2021 from life insurance claims data. Our public health establishment is entirely ignoring this disaster. These younger people did not die of Covid.  https://twitter.com/akheriaty/status/1524568110459547648
     Wall Street is aware of this–take a look at stock prices for certain companies that may be implicated.
I’m working with insurance company executives and regulators who want answers…
 
Why hasn’t The Big Guy used the Defense Production Act to boost baby formula production?  No 10%?
 
GOP Sen. @HawleyMO: Is the Biden Administration going to tell us when they will allow the major baby formula producing plant to reopen, or just continue laughing it off
 
GOP @RepJimBanks: While young parents scramble to feed their children, federal officials are stocking up on baby formula and other supplies in anticipation of nearly 20,000 illegal immigrants crossing our southern border every day once Title 42 is revoked.
 
@AliBradleyTV: Dir. of Del Rio NGO tells me baby formula was donated to help families released to org by Border Patrol. Tiffany Burrow w/Val Verde Border Humanitarian Coalition says they break down tubs of formula into multiple servings to help as many families as possiblehttps://t.co/fXcrTyXRLn
 
Gop Rep @Kat_Cammack: They are sending pallets, pallets of baby formula to the border… Meanwhile, in our own district at home, we cannot find baby formula.”  https://t.co/mqSlvavZdu
 
Probe finds crack pipes in Biden admin’s safe smoking kits, raising grant questions https://trib.al/UMSePXD
 
GOP Sen. @TomCottonAR: Despite assurances from the White House, it turns out that Joe Biden’s crack pipe smoking kits DO contain crack pipes. (Picture of kit at link) https://t.co/ubtXbauzNr
 
GOP Rep. Mike Waltz: “In Joe Biden’s America, it seems like it’s easier to get a CRACK PIPE in a government-funded smoking kit than it is to find baby formula.” https://t.co/jdlUeFSxPt
 
Pew: By a wide margin, Americans view inflation as the top problem facing the country today
Seven-in-ten Americans view inflation as a very big problem for the country, followed by the affordability of health care (55%) and violent crime (54%)… just 19% of Americans rate the coronavirus outbreak as a very big problem..
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/05/12/by-a-wide-margin-americans-view-inflation-as-the-top-problem-facing-the-country-today/
 
If the GOP doesn’t win Congress in November, the party should be disbanded!
@cspan: President Biden marks 1 million American COVID-19 Deaths https://t.co/NUstmz5TSG
 
Fauci Says U.S. Coronavirus Deaths May Be ‘More Like 60,000’; Antibody Tests on Way: NPR https://t.co/SwNyNbKEIj
 
Powell (after close): ‘Soft’ Economic Landing May Be Out of Fed’s Control
“The question whether we can execute a soft landing or not — it may actually depend on factors that we don’t control,” the Fed chair said…
https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2022-05-12/powell-soft-economic-landing-may-be-out-of-feds-control
 
Powell also stated: “…If you had perfect hindsight you’d go back and it probably would have been better for us to have raised rates a little sooner…. Now, we see the picture clearly and we’re determined to use our tools to get us back to price stability.”  (You can’t make this up!  “This is gold, Jerry, gold!”) [Interview at link]  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-sees-more-pain-ahead-admits-soft-landing-out-feds-control
 
Fed Balance Sheet: +$2.036B; the 2nd consecutive small increase. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20220512/
 
Ban on ‘Excessive’ Gas Prices Heading for House Vote
The U.S. president would have the authority to declare an emergency that would make the sale of gasoline at “excessive” prices illegal under legislation House Democrats plan to bring to the floor next week….  https://www.ttnews.com/articles/ban-excessive-gas-prices-heading-house-vote
 
Today – Many actors on the Street desperately need a rally.  With CPI and PPI out of the way, and it being a Friday, the usual suspects, barring negative developments, will try to force stuff to the moon
The Supreme Court announced yesterday that it will issue opinions this Monday.
 
Rep. Jim Jordan slams Merrick Garland for allegedly targeting parents with ‘counterterrorism’ resources – JIM JORDAN: If you’re a mom, you’re a dad, you’re a gun owner, you’re a Republican and you’re standing up for your kids, oh my goodness, look out, because here comes the FBI. And again, in a direct contradiction to what he told us under oath in the committee. Never forget this…
https://www.foxnews.com/media/jim-jordan-merrick-garland-parents-threat-tag-designations
 
Cotton Demands DOJ Enforce Federal Law, Explains What Republicans Could Do to Him If He Won’t – He then recalled the time he told Garland to “resign in disgrace,” and said if he doesn’t enforce the law equally, “perhaps the next Congress should take matters into its own hands with impeachment proceedings.”… https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2022/05/12/why-is-doj-not-enforcing-federal-law-cotton-demands-answers-n2607115
 
Whistleblower Leaks Documents to Project Veritas Showing FBI is Targeting News Organizations With Criminal Investigations (The FBI is irreparably corrupt.  It’s time for reform or termination.)
https://djhjmedia.com/steven/whistleblower-leaks-documents-to-project-veritas-showing-fbi-is-targeting-news-organizations-with-criminal-investigations-video/
 
@RNCResearch: Democrat Rep. Katie Porter claims Bidenflation “reinforce[s]” the “need” for abortion.  “The fact that we’re seeing this jump in expenses … pay more at the grocery store, pay more at the pump, pay more for housing is a reason” for abortion.
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1524589035083251712
 
Hunter Biden’s pal Kevin Morris sparks concern for White House
The president’s allies are uncomfortable with Hollywood lawyer Kevin Morris’ plan to mount an aggressive public defense of Hunter Biden…They’re also troubled by the $2 million-plus loan that Morris gave the first son to pay off his tax debts and fund his living expenses because it potentially echoes the cash he received while serving on the board of a Ukrainian oligarch’s company and pursuing deals with a Chinese tycoon, the Times said…
https://nypost.com/2022/05/11/hunter-bidens-pal-kevin-morris-reportedly-cause-for-concern/?s=02
 
Bill Clinton’s special advisor who let Jeffrey Epstein into the White House seven times and flew on the Lolita Express dies at 59 – the latest associate of the former President to suffer an early demise
Statement which did not reveal the cause of death…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10805997/Bill-Clintons-special-advisor-let-Jeffrey-Epstein-White-House-dies-59.html
 
AP Suggests Elon Musk is a Hypocrite for Supporting Free Speech But Using it to “Attack” His Critics – “Elon Musk boasts that he’s acquiring Twitter to defend freedom of speech,” the AP reported. “But he has long used the platform to attack those who disagree with him.”
    Apparently, the news agency can’t comprehend the basic notion that Musk exercising his free speech to respond to his critics is also a form of free speech
https://summit.news/2022/05/12/ap-suggests-elon-musk-is-a-hypocrite-for-supporting-free-speech-but-using-it-to-attack-his-critics/
 
More than 80 former Chuck Schumer staffers employed by Big Tech https://trib.al/6F8eDZV
 
@elonmusk: Biden’s mistake is that he thinks he was elected to transform the country, but actually everyone just wanted less drama.

Let us close today with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter

WHO in Charge?, Nothing is Working, 2,000 Mules Proves Fraud

By Greg Hunter On May 13, 2022 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups8 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 529 5/13/22)

The Biden/Obama Administration looks like it will cede U.S. sovereignty over to the UN and World Health Organization (WHO) in the next pandemic.  This will allow the Director General of the WHO to declare a health emergency or crisis at his whim.  Is the Biden gang this desperate coming into the Mid-Term election in November?  Will the WHO step in to rig another election via another plandemic?  The Dems look sure to lose a fair election with voters struggling with sky high inflation.

Everywhere you look nothing is working for the Democrat party.  Fuel prices are hitting one record high after another.  There are shortages in just about everything.  The war in Ukraine is not going well, and the sanctions on Russia are backfiring.  And yet, the Biden/Obama Administration keeps causing pain, and it looks like it’s being done on purpose.  Why?  Maybe they don’t have to have a wining election cycle to stay in power.  Maybe they have other plans?

The movie 2,000 Mules is out, and it made $1 million in a matter of hours.  Many say it proves massive ballot fraud in the November election of 2020.  Now, the so-called “fact checkers” are weighing in trying to tell everyone this is all a lie, but they don’t have much of a case.  I think the movie 2,000 Mules has been largely ignored by legacy media because they cannot disprove the election fraud, some of which is caught on camera.  Is Joe Biden an illegitimate President?  The filmmakers of 2,000 Mules say yes.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly news Wrap-Up for 5.13.22.

(https://usawatchdog.com/who-in-charge-nothing-is-working-2000-mules-proves-fraud/)

(If you are having trouble seeing the video, unplug your modem for 20 secs to clear the codes that censor USAW content.  Also, try a different browser for the same reason.)

After the Interview: 

Biblical analyst of time Bo Polny, the man that correctly predicted the overturning of the Roe v. Wade historic abortion case, will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post.   He will tell us why the elimination of Roe v. Wade is so important for the future of America.  Polny will talk about many other current subjects as well.

See you on MONDAY

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2 comments

  1. […] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]

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