MAY 17//GOLD PRICE UP $5.40 TO $1820.25//SILVER UP 22 CENTS TO $21.73//PLATINUM UP $13.35 TO $956.55//PALLADIUM IS UP $28.60 TP $2046.60//COVID UPDATES FROM SHANGAHI//COVID UPDATES FROM AROUND THE GLOBE//BIZARRE SKIN PROBLEMS SURFACING I.E. MONKEY POX (SIMILAR TO SMALLPOX)//NY RAISES LEVEL OF COVID AWARENESS DUE TO INCREASES IN NUMBERS//PFIZER JAB IN YOUNG PEOPLE ONLY 20 EFFICACY// SRI LANKA HAS ONE DAY LEFT OF PETROLEUM//OIL SHOOTS UP TO $115 ON RENEWED HOPE THAT SHANGHAI STOPS ITS LOCKDOWNS/TESLA IN SHANGHAI STILL CANNOT PRODUCE CARS//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/AZOVS SURRENDER//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

May 17, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1820.30 UP $5.40

SILVER: $21.51 UP  $.22

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1813.60

SILVER: $21.59

Bitcoin morning price:  $30,336 UP 533

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $30,229 UP 426

Platinum price: closing UP $13.35 to $956.55

Palladium price; closing UP $28.60  at $2046.60

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX

comex notices percentage of JPMorgan notices filed: 6/6

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,813.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/16/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 05/18/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


661 C JP MORGAN 6
905 C ADM 6


TOTAL: 6 6
MONTH TO DATE: 5,387


NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT 6  NOTICE(S) FOR 600 OZ  (0.01866  TONNES)

total notices so far:  5387 contracts for 538,700. oz (16.755 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

163 NOTICE(S) FILED 815,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  5022  :  for 25,110,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $5.40

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.28 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 22 CENTS

AT THE SLV// A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

AT THE SLV.: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.508 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 565.085 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED  372 CONTRACTS TO 142,915   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND  THE SMALL GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR STRONG  $0.52 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.31) AND IT SEEMS THAT SILVER SHORT SPECULATORS HAVE ALSO BEEN CAUGHT AS THE COMMERCIALS ARE NOW NET LONG.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 30.170 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE. JUMP   //NEW STANDING 28U.035 MILLION OZ/ //  V)    SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : -16

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 11 days, total 16,174,  contracts:  80.870 million oz  OR 7.34 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1470CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 80.87 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 80.87 MILLION OZ//INCREASING AGAIN

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 372 DESPITE OUR STRONG  $0.31 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 910 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY. OF 30.170 MILLION  OZ  FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 195,000  OZ QUEUE. JUMP //NEW STANDING 28.035 MILLION OZ//  .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1298 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 6.490 MILLION  OZ WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. 

 WE HAD 163  NOTICE FILED TODAY FOR  815,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 9100 CONTRACTS  TO 557,303 AND FURTHER FROM NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  –1695 CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

.

THE  STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR  GAIN IN PRICE OF $5.40//COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY /.AS IN SILVER WE MUST  HAD  HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   //JUST MASSIVE SHORT COVERING FROM OUR STUPID SPECULATORS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY AT 5.353 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE /FOLLOWED BY TODAY”S QUEUE JUMP OF 3200 OZ//NEW STANDING 17.9502 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF   $5.40 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 7461  OI CONTRACTS (23.206 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED  5766 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 557,303.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A  STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7461, WITH 9100 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1939 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7461 CONTRACTS OR 23.226 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1639) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (9100,): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES  7461 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY. AT 5.353 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 3200 OZ//NEW STANDING 16.9502 ///  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//MASSIVE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING //.,4) STRONG SIZED COMEX  OI. LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

MAY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :

47,002 CONTRACTS OR 4,700,200 OR 146.19  TONNES 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4272 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 146.19 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  146.19/3550 x 100% TONNES  4.11% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  146.19 TONNES INITIAL// INCREASING AGAIN

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAY.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 372 CONTRACT OI TO 142,915 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 910 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAY 910  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF  372 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 910 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF1282 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE  GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6.410 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF  $0.52 .

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

end

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 19.95 PTS OR 0.65%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 652.31 PTS OR 3.27%    /The Nikkei closed UP 112.70 OR 0.42%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.33%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6,7244    /Oil UP TO 115.47 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 115.48 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7249 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7349: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER/

a)NORTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 9100 CONTRACTS TO 557,303 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS STRONG  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  GAIN OF $5.40 IN GOLD PRICING MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (1639 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ARE CAUGHT

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1639 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 JUNE :1639 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1639 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A  GOOD SIZED  TOTAL OF 5766 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1639 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 7405  CONTRACTS..AND YET  THIS GAIN OCCURRED WITH  OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF GOLD $5.40.   

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY   (17.9502),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 17.9502 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $5.40) BUT  IT SEEMS WERE QUITE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SPECULATOR SHORTS//  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A STRONG SIZED LOSS  OF 23.206 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY (17.9502 TONNES)

WE HAD 1695 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7461 CONTRACTS OR 746100  OZ OR 23.206

 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 148,307/// poor

Confirmed volume yesterday:189,792 contracts  poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAY ’22 COMEX GOLD //MAY 17

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz36,713.137 oz Brinks Delaware Int. Delaware
includes15 kilobars Delaware
24 kilobars Int. Delaware
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznilOZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz69,610.950 OZ
INCLUDES 2000 kilobars
Loomis
Brinks
Delaware
Loomis
No of oz served (contracts) today6  notice(s)600 OZ
0.01866 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)384 contracts 38,400 oz
1.194 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month5387 notices538,700 OZ
16.755 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

For today:

dealer deposits  0

total dealer deposit  nil   oz//

No dealer withdrawals

3 customer deposits

i)Into Brinks:  4410.19 oz

ii) Into Delaware 898.760 oz

iii) Into Loomis: 64,302.000 oz (2,000 kilobars)

3 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks:  35,459.250  oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 482.265 oz (15 kilobars)

iii) Out of Int.  Delaware 771.624 oz (24 kilobars)

total withdrawal: 36,713.137 oz

ADJUSTMENTS:   a)  Brinks//dealer to customer 58,308.608 oz

b) Manfra:  3672.215 oz//dealer to customer

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.

For the front month of MAY we have an  oi of 390 contracts having GAINED 27 contracts

We had 5 notices filed on MONDAY, so we gained 32 contracts or  AN ADDITIONAL 3,200 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of May.

June saw a loss of 15,474 contracts down to 250,522 contracts 

July has a GAIN OF 110 OI to stand at 313

August has a gain of 6069 contracts up to 248,235 contracts

We had 6 notice(s) filed today for  600 oz FOR THE MAY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 6 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and  6 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5387) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (MAY 390  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  6 x 100 oz per contract equals 577100 OZ  OR 17.9502 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this non  active month of MAY. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (5387) x 100 oz+   (390)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (6} x 100 oz} which equals 577,100 oz standing OR 17.9502 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of MAY.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  17.9502 TONNES  (A STRONG STANDING FOR A MAY ( NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,026,795.134 oz                             

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  35,967,538.084 OZ 

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 17,897,202.217  OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 18,070,335.867 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,948,662.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  

END

MAY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//MAY 17

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory919,623.750  oz
Brinks
CNT
JPM
Manfra
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory584,850.320
OZ
Int Delaware
Deposits to the Customer Inventory52,611.387 oz
Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)163CONTRACT(S)815,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)585 contracts (2,925,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)5022 contracts 25,110,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results

i) One deposit into the dealer account

i) into Int. Delaware: 584,850.320 oz

total dealer deposits:  584,850.320     oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Delaware:  52,611.347 oz

total deposit:  52,611.347 oz    oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 176.885 million oz/338.616 million =52.21% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 4

i) Out of CNT  24,998.920 oz

ii) Out of Brinks 33,412.000 oz

iii) Out of JPMorgan: 578,606.400 oz

iv) Out of Manfra: 202,606.380 oz

total withdrawal 919,623.750     oz

0 adjustments: 

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 81.099 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 338.416 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MAY OI: 748 HAVING GAINED 39 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY

SO WE GAINED 39   CONTRACTS OR AN QUEUE. JUMP OF 195,000 OZ

JUNE HAD A LOSS OF 12 TO STAND AT 1521

JULY HAD A LOSS OF 39 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 112,963 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 163 for 815,000 oz

Comex volumes: 38,095// est. volume today//   fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 649,187contracts ( fair )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5022 x 5,000 oz = 25,110,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY(748) and the number of notices served upon today 163  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the MAY./2021 contract month: 5022 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY (748)  – number of notices served upon today (163) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month equates 28,035,000 oz. .

We GAINED 50 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 250,000 OZ will  stand for delivery at the comex

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

MAY 17/WITH GOLD UP $5.40:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.28 TONNES

MAY 16/WITH GOLD UP $5.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.89 TONNES

MAY 13/ WITH GOLD DOWN $16.25//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.8 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.82 TONNES

MAY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.99 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.62 TONNES

MAY 11/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.25 TONNES FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.65 TONNES

MAY 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.10 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.90 TONNES

MAY 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.05: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.98 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.00 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $7.95: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1084.98 TONNES

MAY 5/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.04 TONNES

MAY 4//WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 \TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.04 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $6.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A WITHDRAWL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1092.23

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.20: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1094.55 TONNES

APRIL 29/WITH GOLD UP $20.05/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1095,72 TONNES

APRIL 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.77 TONNES FROM THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1095.72 TONNES

APRIL 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.30//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.49 TONNES

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD UP $7.60//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.9 TONNES INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101.23 TONNES

APRIL 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.13 TONNES 

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.13 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1106.74 TONNES

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT IF 6.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1106.74 TONNES

APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1100.36 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $11.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.44 TONNES

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A  DEPOSIT OF 11.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.42 TONNES

APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $26.95: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 //A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1090.49 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1053.28 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

MAY 17/WITH SILVER UP $.22 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.508 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 16/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.546 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.593 MILLION OZ//

MAY 13/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ/

MAY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ//

May 11/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.487 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ//

MAY 10.//WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .93 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .851 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.900 MILLION OZ

MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF.877 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 47 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 554,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.171 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 29//WITH SILVER DOWN 12  CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.725 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.308 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.725 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.385 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.033 MILLION OZ

APRIL 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.418 MILLION OZ

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.031 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.418 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS : STRANGE!! A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING DEPOSIT OF 3.508 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 581.449 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 21/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.941 MILLION OZ

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS : A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.955 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.941 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .461 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY…//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.986 MILLION OZ

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.771 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.447 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS : A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.355 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 569.676 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP 66 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 831,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

INVENTORY TONIGHT RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ/

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

2.LAWRIE WILLIAMS//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James  RICKARDS/

-END-

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

The Bank of England admits it is helpless fighting massive inflation hitting his country

(London Telegraph)

Bank of England admits helplessness against inflation

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-05-16 13:17Section: Daily Dispatches

By James Warrington and Giulia Bottaro
The Telegraph, London
Monday, May 16, 2022

The governor of the Bank of England has claimed that policy makers have been left helpless in the face of surging inflation.

Appearing in front of MPs today, Andrew Bailey admitted he had felt helpless to control soaring prices amid an energy market shock and the war in Ukraine, adding: “It;s a very, very difficult place for us to be in.”

Fellow Monetary Policy Committee members Dave Ramsden and Michael Saunders said external factors contributed around 80% of the recent inflation surge and insisted that even if the bank had raised interest rates more aggressively, it’s unlikely inflation would have fallen back to the target of 2%.

The hearing comes amid a slew of attacks by senior Tory MPs on the Bank of England for its handling of the cost-of-living crisis. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/16/ftse-100-stock-markets-news-energy-price-cap-bank-england/

end

Interesting:  Russia gives Credit Bank a license to export/import gold.

(Reuters)

Russia gives Credit Bank of Moscow license to export gold

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-05-16 19:15Section: Daily Dispatches

From Reuters
Monday, May 16, 2022

Credit Bank of Moscow, one of Russia’s largest private lenders, has obtained a gold export licence from the government, it said today, becoming the latest Russian bank to turn to precious metals trade to offset the impact of sanctions.

The main operators of the gold market in Russia and its largest lenders — Sberbank and VTB, have been hit by harsh Western sanctions imposed on Russia after it sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24.

 “MKB has a dedicated focus on developing operations with precious metals,” MKB said in a statement. The bank has also been subject to sanctions in the United States but it said they were not “blocking” its activity. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russia-gives-credit-bank-moscow-licence-export-gold-2022-05-16/

end 

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES //DIAMONDS

END

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.7244

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7359

HANG SANG CLOSED  UP 652.31 PTS OR 3.67% 

2. Nikkei closed 112.70 OR 0.42%

3. Europe stocks  ALL CLOSED  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  103.33/Euro RISES TO 1.0545

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.240/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 129.27/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   UP -SHORE CLOSED  DOWN//  OFF- SHORE  UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +0.859%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 2.75% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 1.90%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.54

3j Gold at $1833.75 silver at: 21.75  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP  0      roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 63.40

3m oil into the 115 dollar handle for WTI and  115 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 129.27 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9922– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0463well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.920- UP 4  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.118 UP 3 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 15.73

Futures Jump Amid Optimism China’s Covid Lockdowns Are Ending

TUESDAY, MAY 17, 2022 – 07:43 AM

Another day, another dead cat-bouncing, bear market rally.

After Monday’s flattish session which saw tech names slump on fresh inflation fears, Nasdaq futures rebounded on Tuesday, setting up technology stocks for solid gains after a six-week rout as investors were encouraged by China’s easing covid lockdowns and amid speculation that Beijing regulators may ease a yearlong clampdown on internet companies at an upcoming meeting with tech executives. Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 2% by 7:00 a.m. in New York after the underlying gauge sank on Monday on concerns about a slowdown in economic growth; S&P 500 futures rose 1.6%. Treasury yields rose modestly above 2.90%, and the dollar retreated. Bitcoin managed to rebound back over $30K.

Confirming what we said almost three weeks ago, Shanghai reported three days of zero community transmission, a milestone that could lead officials to start unwinding a punishing lockdown. However, flareups elsewhere in China showed how hard it is to tackle the omicron strain.

Among notable moves in US premarket trading, Twitter shares fell 3.3%, set to extend declines for an eighth straight session amid uncertainties around the deal with Elon Musk, while Citigroup rose 4.9% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway unexpectedly disclosed a new stake in the lender, a return to banks for the billionaire who purged many of his bank holdings several years ago. Tech names including Advanced Micro Devices, Tesla and Nvidia were among the biggest premarket gainers as growing recession concerns prompt markets to reasses just how many rate hikes the Fed will pull off before it is forced to reverse. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks climbed as Bitcoin rose above $30,000 on Tuesday in cautious trading, with the fallout from a collapsed stablecoin continuing to keep sentiment in check. Chinese stocks in US jumped across the board in premarket trading on speculation that regulators may ease a yearlong clampdown on internet companies at an upcoming meeting with tech executives. Here are the most notable premarket movers:

  • Twitter (TWTR US) shares fell 2.4% in premarket trading, on course to extend their seven-day streak of declines, as uncertainties around a deal by buyer Elon Musk weigh on the stock. Tesla (TSLA US) shares rallied 3% in premarket trading.
  • Chinese stocks in US jump across the board in premarket trading on speculation that regulators may ease a yearlong clampdown on internet companies at an upcoming meeting with tech executives. Alibaba (BABA US) +6.2%, JD.com (JD US) +5.6%, Pinduoduo (PDD US) +7% and Baidu (BIDU US) +3.6%
  • Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks climb in US premarket as Bitcoin rises above $30,000 on Tuesday in cautious trading, with the fallout from a collapsed stablecoin continuing to keep sentiment in check. Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) +7.8%; Coinbase (COIN US) +6.8%; Marathon Digital (MARA US) +6.1%
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) upgraded to overweight from neutral at Piper Sandler, which says in note that the company’s core businesses are running well and mid-to-long-term catalysts remain intact. Stock gains 3.6% in New York premarket trading.
  • United Airlines Holdings’ (UAL US) updated second-quarter guidance is “a solid step in the right direction,” Citi says. United’s shares gained 4.3% in premarket trading.
  • Bird Global (BRDS US) shares jump as much as 40% in US premarket trading with DA Davidson noting management’s announcement of a plan to streamline operations.
  • Take-Two (TTWO US) reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings helped by popular video games like NBA 2K22. The company’s shares rise 5.4% in premarket trading.
  • Global-e Online (GLBE US) shares slump as much as 30% in US premarket trading as analysts slash their price targets on the e-commerce software firm after it lowered its full-year guidance for revenue and gross merchandise value.
  • Imperial Petroleum (IMPP US) shares plunge 48% in US premarket trading. The shipping company priced an underwritten public offering of 72.7m units at $0.55 per unit, with expected gross proceeds of ~$40m.

US stocks have been roiled in the past six weeks as the combination of high inflation and hawkish central banks fueled fears of a potential recession. While some strategists including Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson expect equities to fall further before finding a floor, they don’t foresee a recession as their base case. The main focus today will be on US retail sales data, which are expected to show a rise of 1% in April.

“Investors’ appetite for riskier assets is on the rise after many welcomed today’s positive unemployment and GDP figures” from the eurozone and UK, said Pierre Veyret, an analyst at ActivTrades Plc. “The improving virus situation in China is also blowing a wind of relief in investors’ trading minds.”

A challenging global economic outlook amid elevated food and record fuel costs, and tightening monetary settings continues to shape sentiment.  Oil has jumped to about $114 a barrel and an index of agricultural prices is at a record high. But one bond-market measure – the five-year breakeven rate – is signaling inflation has peaked, while the latest virus developments raised hopes China’s damaging lockdowns may soon be eased.

On Monday, New York Fed President John Williams on Monday downplayed deteriorating liquidity conditions in financial markets, saying it was to be expected as investors grapple with uncertainty over global events and shifting U.S. monetary policy. No less than six Fed speakers – including Chair Jerome Powell – are due to speak later Tuesday.

In Europe, technology and basic-resources stocks led a broad-based advance of the Stoxx Europe 600 following a rally in Chinese tech shares on optimism Beijing may ease up on a yearlong clampdown. Italy’s FTSE MIB adds 1.6%, FTSE 100 lags, adding 0.7%. Miners, financial services and banks are the strongest-performing sectors. Equities were also buoyed by data showing the euro-area economy expanded more than initially estimated at the start of the year as the region moved past a wave of Covid-19 infections and defied headwinds from the early days of the war in Ukraine. Here are the biggest European movers:

  • Clariant shares rise as much as 8.7% after the specialty chemical company announced its governance agreement with SABIC will expire at the June 24 AGM, and won’t be renewed.
  • Imperial Brands climbs as much as 7.9% after the tobacco company reduced its losses from next-generation products and continued on a turnaround plan.
  • Daimler Truck gains as much as 7.8% in Frankfurt; Oddo BHF notes strong 1Q report that will reassure in the current environment, while Citi says the company delivered an “encouraging” set of results.
  • Engie rises as much as 6.9%, hitting the highest since March 1, after the French energy company boosted its profit guidance on higher European energy prices.
  • CaixaBank advances as much as 5.4% after the Spanish lender released a new strategic plan that predicts a jump in a key profitability metric and announced a EU1.8b share buyback program.
  • Prosus and Naspers both raised to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan following the broker’s upgrade of Tencent. Prosus shares gain as much as 6.5% in Amsterdam, Naspers climbs as much as 6.7% in Johannesburg.
  • ContourGlobal gains as much as 34% after US private equity firm KKR agreed to buy the power generation business for 263.6p/share in cash, representing a premium of 36% to Monday’s close.
  • Vodafone erases losses after dropping as much as 4.2% as the telecom operator’s forecast for adjusted Ebitda after-leases missed consensus estimates at mid- point.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced for a third day — its longest winning streak since mid-March — amid a jump in some technology firms on the back of hopes for an unwind of Chinese lockdowns that have hurt the global economic outlook as well as a dialing back of Beijing’s regulatory crackdowns. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.5%, on track for a third day of gains. Chinese tech giants Tencent and Alibaba contributed most to the gain, while chipmakers TSMC and Samsung also helped. Shanghai reported no new Covid infections in the broader community for a third day, hitting a crucial milestone toward reduced restrictions. China’s top political advisory body is hosting a meeting Tuesday with some of the nation’s largest private-sector firms, sparking hopes for an improved business climate. 

“The mood in Asia is risk on,” said Xue Hua Cui, a China equity analyst at Meritz Securities in Seoul. “Whether this remains a dead cat bounce or not depends on how quickly demand recovers following the end of Shanghai lockdowns.” Hong Kong outperformed, with the Hang Seng Index rising more than 3%. Benchmarks in India also advanced more than 2%, even as state-run insurer Life Insurance Corporation of India dropped in its Mumbai trading debut after a record initial public offering for the nation. 

Japanese equities gained with Asian peers amid hopes that China will ease up on Covid lockdowns and regulatory crackdowns. The Topix rose 0.2% to close at 1,866.71. Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 0.4% to 26,659.75. Recruit Holdings contributed the most to the Topix gain, rising 2% after its earnings report. Out of 2,172 shares in the index, 1,164 rose and 932 fell, while 76 were unchanged.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.3% to close at 7,112.50, taking its winning run to a third session. Miners and banks contributed the most to the gauge’s advance. Beach Energy was among the top performers, climbing with other energy shares as oil rallied. Brambles was the biggest laggard after saying CVC won’t be putting forward a proposal for the pallet maker. Investors also assessed minutes from the RBA’s May meeting. The central bank said it considered three options for the size of its first interest-rate increase since 2010. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.2% to 11,137.88.

India’s key gauges surged on Tuesday, boosted by Reliance Industries Ltd. which climbed the most since early March. Still, Life Insurance Corp. of India, the country’s biggest listing so far, slumped on debut. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 2.5%, its biggest jump in three months, to 54,318.47 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 2.6%. All of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. climbed, led by a gauge of metal companies. Reliance Industries advanced 4.2%, providing the biggest boost to the Sensex, which had all 30 members trading higher.  “It’s a much-needed breather for the bulls after five weeks of slide and we may further rise,” said Ajit Mishra, vice-president research at Religare Broking Ltd. “Since all the sectors are participating in the rebound, we suggest focusing more on stock selection. Despite strong gains in the broader market, shares in the state-controlled insurer plunged 7.8%, following a $2.7 billion IPO, India’s biggest on record. The stock trimmed losses from the low, but failed to touch the listing price in the session. LIC’s first-day performance makes for the second-worst debut among 11 global companies that listed this year after raising at least $1 billion through first-time share sales. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell a third consecutive day and the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen. The pound lead G-10 gains followed by Scandinavian and Antipodean currencies. The pound rallied and gilts slumped across the curve after a stronger-than-expected reading of the UK employment data stoked speculation that a tighter labor market may prompt the BOE to continue its monetary tightening cycle beyond a widely expected rate rise next month. Average weekly earnings surged 7% in the three months through March, compared to the 5.4% figure economists had expected. The euro rose on the back of a broadly weaker dollar. Bunds slid as haven demand was unwound. Italian bonds also tumbled as money markets wagered on up to 98bps of ECB hikes by December. The Aussie strengthened for a third day while Australia’s sovereign bonds fell after minutes from RBA’s May meeting indicated the central bank considered an outsized rate hike. The RBA said it considered three options for the size of its first interest-rate increase since 2010, according to minutes of its May 3 policy meeting, when it raised the cash rate by 25 basis points. The Australian and New Zealand dollars also benefitted from expectations that Covid lockdowns in Hong Kong and Shanghai will be lifted. The yen gave up earlier gains as US yields resumed their climb, which also weighed on Japan government bonds.

In rates, yields rose as Treasuries cheapened with losses led by front-end of the curve, following a sharper bear flattening move across EGBs after ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said he supports a quarter-point increase in interest rates in July and that a bigger move may be justified if data show inflation worsening. US Treasury yields cheaper by up to 5.5bp across front-end of the curve, the 10Y TSY trading at 2.91% last and flattening 2s10s spread by 2.2bp on the day; 2-year German yields cheaper by 23bp on the day following Knot comments while German 10s are cheaper by 4bp vs. Treasuries. In U.S. session, focus on a stacked Fed speaker slate led by Chair Jerome Powell who will be interviewed during a Wall Street Journal live event in the afternoon. The Dollar issuance slate includes Export Development Canada 5Y SOFR, OKB 3Y SOFR and JICA 5Y SOFR; six deals priced $9.1n Monday in order books that were 3.3x oversubscribed

In commodities, WTI drifts 0.2% higher to trade at around $114. Spot gold rises roughly $3 to trade above $1,825/oz. Base metals are mixed; LME tin falls 1.6% while LME zinc gains 2.4%. European gas prices hit four-week low after EU revised guidelines for purchases of Russian supplies.

To the day ahead now, and there’s an array of central bank speakers including Fed Chair Powell, along with the Fed’s Bullard, Harker, Kashkari, Mester and Evans, ECB President Lagarde and BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe. Data releases include US retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for April, along with the NAHB’s housing market index for May. Elsewhere, there’s also the UK unemployment reading for March. Finally, earnings releases include Walmart and Home Depot.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 1.3% to 4,057.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.6% to 440.47
  • MXAP up 1.4% to 162.83
  • MXAPJ up 2.2% to 535.18
  • Nikkei up 0.4% to 26,659.75
  • Topix up 0.2% to 1,866.71
  • Hang Seng Index up 3.3% to 20,602.52
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,093.70
  • Sensex up 2.1% to 54,080.42
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,112.53
  • Kospi up 0.9% to 2,620.44
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.99%
  • Euro up 0.4% to $1.0480
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $114.53/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,827.11
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.42% to 103.75

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The euro-area economy grew more than initially estimated at the start of the year as the region moved past a wave of Covid-19 infections and defied headwinds from the early days of the war in Ukraine. Economic output rose 0.3% in the first quarter, exceeding a flash reading of 0.2%, according to Eurostat data released Tuesday. Employment, meanwhile, gained 0.5% during same period
  • The UK will lay out its plan to amend its post-Brexit trade deal Tuesday in a direct challenge to the European Union, which is insisting that Prime Minister Boris Johnson must honor the agreement he signed
  • China’s main bond trading platform for foreign investors has quietly stopped providing data on their transactions, a move that may heighten concerns about transparency in the nation’s $20 trillion debt market after record outflows
  • The American and European Union chambers of commerce in separate briefings said their members are rethinking their supply chains and whether to expand investment in the face of China’s zero tolerance approach to combating Covid-19
  • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he won’t allow Sweden and Finland to join NATO because of their stances on Kurdish militants, throwing a wrench into plans to strengthen the western military alliance after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were positive but with gains capped after the uninspiring lead from Wall St and growth concerns. ASX 200 was kept afloat by strength in the commodity-related sectors after recent gains in underlying prices. Nikkei 225 traded marginally higher with Japan seeking to pass an extra budget by month-end and will begin permitting entry to a small number of tourists. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were both firmer with tech spearheading the outperformance in Hong Kong amid hopes of an easing of the crackdown on the sector, while the mainland lagged amid economic concerns and despite Shanghai reporting no cases outside of quarantine for a 3rd consecutive day.

Top Asian News

  • China’s state planner said China’s economy faces increasing downward pressure, while it will step up support for manufacturing companies, contact-intensive services, small companies and home businesses, according to Reuters.
  • Senior Chinese officials are to meet with tech industry chiefs today amid talk of crackdown easing, according to Nikkei. It was later reported that China’s top political consultative body began a conference on promoting the sustainable and healthy development of the digital economy, according to state media.
  • Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam said they will proceed with the planned COVID curbs easing on May 19th, according to Bloomberg.
  • BoJ Deputy Governor Amamiya said it is important to continue current powerful easing to firmly support the economy and that long-term interest rates have been stable since the adoption of fixed-rate operations, while he added that if monetary easing is reduced now, it would make the 2% price goal an even more distant target, according to Reuters.
  • Japan is to permit small groups of tourists to visit this month as a trial ahead of its border reopening, according to Japan Times.

European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.7%, taking impetus from and extending on a positive APAC handover as the regions COVID situation improves. Stateside, futures are firmer across the board, ES +1.8%, following yesterday’s  relatively lacklustre session with participants awaiting numerous Fed speak, including Chair Powell. Twitter (TWTR) prospective purchaser Musk says that his offer was based on the Co.’s SEC filing being accurate, however, yesterday the CEO refused to show proof of less than 5% of fake/spam accounts; deal cannot move forward until this has been disclosed. -3.5% in the pre-market. Home Depot Inc (HD) Q1 2023 (USD): EPS 4.09 (exp. 3.67/3.67 GAAP), Revenue 38.9bln (exp. 36.71bln); Raises Fiscal 2022 Guidance. +2.5% in the pre-market

Top European News

  • UK Foreign Secretary Truss is to declare her intention to bring forward legislation that rips up parts of the post-Brexit trade deal on Northern Ireland, according to LBC. Expected around 12:30BST/07:30ET
  • Irish Foreign Minister Coveney says he spoke with UK Foreign Minister Truss on Monday, notes the EU and UK sides haven’t met since February and says it is “time to get back to the table”
  • ECB is expected to raise the deposit rate in July according to 39 out of 39 respondents in a Reuters survey, while 26 out of 48 economists see the deposit rate at 0% in Q3 and 21 out of 48 see the deposit rate at 0.25% in Q4.

FX

  • Pound the standout G10 performer in wake of outstanding UK labour report; Cable clears string of resistance levels on the way towards 1.2500 and EUR/GBP probes 0.8400 after breaching technical supports .
  • Kiwi and Aussie relish renewed risk appetite and latter also helped by hawkish RBA minutes; NZD/USD above 0.6350 and 1.3bln option expiries at 0.6300, AUD/USD back on 0.7000 handle.
  • Greenback concedes ground ahead of top tier US data and raft of Fed speakers including chair Powell, DXY down to 103.470 vs 104.320 at best; latest session low in wake of ECB’s Knot.
  • Franc, Euro and Loonie all up at the expense of the Buck but latter also fuelled by WTI topping USD 115/bbl; USD/CHF sub-parity, EUR/USD surpassing 1.05 in wake of hawk-Knot and USD/CAD near 1.2800.
  • Yen lags as risk sentiment improves and yields outside of Japan rebound firmly; USD/JPY rebounds through 129.00 and just over 129.50.
  • Norwegian Crown boosted by Brent in stark contrast to crude import dependent Turkish Lira and Indian Rupee; EUR/NOK under 10.1500, USD/TRY touches 15.8850 and USD/INR crosses 78.0000 to set fresh ATH

Fixed Income

  • Bonds make way for risk revival and brace for US data amidst a raft of global Central Bank speakers.
  • Bunds down to 152.74, Gilts hit 119.25 and 10 year T-note as low as 119-08 before paring some heavy declines
  • UK DMO gets welcome reception for 2015 issuance, but new German Schatz receives cold shoulder even before hawkish comments from ECB’s Knot not ruling out a 50 bp July hike if data warrants more than 25 bp
  • China’s main bond trading platform is said to have stopped the reporting of bond trades by foreigners following the market downside, according to Bloomberg.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent are firmer in-fitting with broader risk appetite and the aforementioned China COVID improvement; posting gains of circa USD 0.80/bbl.
  • However, upside remains capped amid the ongoing standoff between the EU and Hungary over a Russian import embargo.
  • Iran set June Iranian light crude price to Asia at Oman/Dubai + USD 4.25/bbl, according to a Reuters source
  •  
  • OPEC+ production was 2.6mln below quotas in April, according to a report cited by Reuters; Russian production 1.28mln below the required level in April, sources add.
  • Spot gold is firmer, taking impetus from the USD pressure; though, the yellow metal is yet to move out of earlier ranges.
  • Base metals are bid on risk while Wheat declined amid reports that India is easing some of its export restrictions.

Central Banks

  • ECB’s Knot says a 25bp hike in July is realistic; says a 50bp rate hike should not be excluded if data in the next few months suggests that inflation is broadening and accumulating.
  • NBH’s Virag says they will increase rates further, via Reuters citing slides.
  • NBP’s Kotecki says that interest rates will continue to move higher but it is currently difficult to define their target level.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: April Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 0.5%, revised 0.7%
    • April Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 1.1%, revised 1.4%
    • April Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.7%, prior 0.2%, revised 0.7%
    • April Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.7%, prior -0.1%, revised 0.7%
  • 09:15: April Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.9%
  • 09:15: April Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.4%, prior 0.9%
  • 10:00: March Business Inventories, est. 1.9%, prior 1.5%
  • 10:00: May NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 75, prior 77

Fed Speakers

  • 08:00: Fed’s Bullard Discusses Economic Outlook
  • 09:15: Fed’s Harker Discusses Healthcare as Economic Driver
  • 12:30: Fed’s Kashkari Takes Part in a Moderated Townhall Discussion
  • 14:00: Powell Interviewed During Wall Street Journal Live Event
  • 14:30: Fed’s Mester Gives Opening Remarks to Panel on Inflation
  • 18:45: Fed’s Evans Discusses the Economic Outlook

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Recession fears have continued to dominate markets over the last 24 hours, but Deutsche Bank Research is still the only bank to actually forecast one in the US. The tone was set for the day after some incredibly weak data out of China that we discussed yesterday, but that was then followed up with disappointing survey data from the US, which arrived ahead of an array of central bank speakers today (including Fed Chair Powell).

Although markets in Asia are bouncing a little this morning, the S&P 500 (-0.39%) last night followed up its run of 6 consecutive weekly declines with a further loss. It was another volatile day that saw stocks trade in a 1.5% range, including going into positive territory briefly in the afternoon before slipping into the close. Sector dispersion was pretty wide, with energy shares gaining +2.62% and consumer discretionary stocks falling -2.12%, led by Tesla retreating -5.88%. Tech was the next biggest laggard, with the NASDAQ (-1.20%) and FANG+ index (-1.34%) underperforming the broader universe. That still leaves the S&P 500 index around 2% above its recent closing low on Thursday, but remember that if we get another week in negative territory, it would still be the first time since 2001 that the S&P has posted 7 consecutive weekly declines. After opening the week much lower, the STOXX 600 did recover through that day to post a slight +0.04% gain yesterday, continuing its recent outperformance.

The prevailing risk-off mood meant that longer-dated sovereign bond yields also ended the day lower for the most part. Those on 10yr Treasuries were down -3.6bps to close at 2.88%, having already fallen by -20.8bps over the previous week as investors priced in a growing risk of recession over Fed and inflation concerns. The decline was split between breakevens and real yields. To be fair 10yr yields have gained +3.3bps this morning in Asia, thus almost reversing yesterday’s losses so far.

At the short-end, the amount of tightening priced in over the near-term has subsided somewhat of late, as it seems investors are searching high and low for a Fed put following a poor run of risk asset performance and the prior relentless repricing towards a more aggressive monetary tightening. Indeed if you were to stop the month right now, it would be the first month in 10 that the rate priced in by the December 2022 meeting has actually fallen rather than risen. That’s been echoed further out the curve as well, with investors now barely expecting the Fed Funds rate to get above 3% in 2023 at all, even though inflation has proven much stickier than the consensus expected over recent months. As Chair Powell put it in an interview last week, getting inflation back to target will “include some pain”. Markets are starting to price some of that out though.

Over in Europe longer-dated sovereign bond yields also moved slightly lower, including those on 10yr bunds (-0.8bps), OATs (-1.4bps) and BTPs (-0.8bps). That came as we heard from Bank of France Governor Villeroy, who said to expect “a decisive June meeting, and an active summer”, which fits into the broader debate recently whereby markets are increasingly expecting an initial hike as soon as July. This saw the 2yr bund increase +3.0bps to 0.12%. Another point of interest were also his comments on the exchange rate, saying that “A euro that is too weak would go against our price-stability objective”.

In line with the broader theme this year, one asset class that wasn’t impacted by the risk-off tone was commodities, and both Brent crude (+2.41%) and WTI (+3.36%) moved back above $114/bbl yesterday. This morning, both are seeing slight losses though (-0.36% and -0.46%, respectively). There were major gains for wheat futures (+5.94%) too, which saw a significant daily rise following India’s move over the weekend to restrict their exports. And that went alongside other rises in agricultural goods yesterday including corn (+3.6%) and sugar (+2.66%), which is an incredibly important story for emerging markets in particular given the much higher share of disposable income that consumers put towards food in those countries.

Another asset class that has had a bad time of late is Bitcoin, shedding another -3.58% to $29,909 yesterday. This morning it is climbing back above the $30k threshold. Marion Laboure in my team published a piece yesterday looking at the recent selloff in crypto, adding some much needed context for what this means for broader adoption efforts. See here for more.

Overnight in Asia, it has been a good start for the Hang Seng (+2.23%) amid optimism that today’s meeting between China’s corporates and regulators may lead to an easing of draconian measures on tech companies. Hong Kong is also on track to ease covid curbs on May 19th, a theme that also lifted the Shanghai Composite (+0.29%) after the city reported a third day of no new infections in the broader community, a threshold that allows it to roll back some of the restrictions. The sentiment is upbeat elsewhere in Asia too, with the Nikkei (+0.35%) and the KOSPI (+0.80%) also rising. This optimism is shared by S&P 500 futures, up +0.31%.

Elsewhere, it’s likely that Brexit will be back in the headlines today as UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is expected to make a statement to parliament announcing a new law that would override parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol. For reference, the Protocol is a part of the Brexit deal which the UK and the EU agreed ahead of the UK’s departure, but has been a persistent source of controversy since. Northern Irish unionists view it as undermining their place in the UK because it places an economic border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, and the DUP (the second-largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly) are refusing to help form an executive following their recent elections unless action is taken on the Protocol. The EU have continued to warn the UK against any unilateral action, and there’s been fears of an UK-EU trade war if the row gets worse.

There wasn’t much in the way of data yesterday, although the Empire State manufacturing survey for May underwhelmed with a reading of -11.6 (vs. 15.0 expected), which was beneath every estimate in Bloomberg’s survey. There was some easing in the prices paid index though, which fell to a 14-month low of 73.7.

To the day ahead now, and there’s an array of central bank speakers including Fed Chair Powell, along with the Fed’s Bullard, Harker, Kashkari, Mester and Evans, ECB President Lagarde and BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe. Data releases include US retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for April, along with the NAHB’s housing market index for May. Elsewhere, there’s also the UK unemployment reading for March. Finally, earnings releases include Walmart and Home Depot.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 19.95 PTS OR 0.65%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 652.31 PTS OR 3.27%    /The Nikkei closed UP 112.70 OR 0.42%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.33%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6,7244    /Oil UP TO 115.47 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 115.48 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7249 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7349: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER//

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///SOUTH KOREA

3B  JAPAN

3c CHINA

COVID//LOCKDOWNS/

Oil prices now surge past $115 (Tuesday morning) as Shanghai signals an end to the lockdowns.

Oil Prices Surge Past $115 As Shanghai Signals End Of Lockdown

MONDAY, MAY 16, 2022 – 05:05 PM

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com,

Oil prices have topped $115 per barrel on optimism that China’s lockdowns are coming to an end and demand will not take a prolonged hit. 

In early afternoon markets Monday, news that Shanghai was seeing a strong recovery from COVID cases, with plans in place to ease lockdown restrictions beginning this week, outweighed a litany of bearish news for oil. 

 Last night: Brent was at $113.97 per barrel on 3:20 pm EST, while WTI was trading at $113.77. (this morning $115.48)

WTI neared $115…

Authorities in Shanghai on Monday said restrictions would finally ease, in stages, after nearly six weeks of lockdowns that have shaken the Chinese economy and disrupted global supply chains.

On 1 June, Shanghai is scheduled to see lockdowns end, with a gradual easing beginning on May 21st. 

“From June 1 to mid- and late June, as long as risks of a rebound in infections are controlled, we will fully implement epidemic prevention and control, normalise management and fully restore normal production and life in the city,” the Guardian quoted deputy mayor Zong Ming as saying Monday. 

The announcement comes shortly after downward pressure was put on oil prices over new releases of weak Chinese economic data and signals that the European Union’s plans to ban Russian oil had faltered.

On Monday, China published official economic data, showing a significant slowdown, with industrial output falling by nearly 3% year-on-year in April, and retail sales down by around 11%. Shanghai’s port volumes were also down by 40%, according to DW.  

All of this has led to a decline in demand for oil coming out of China. 

However, according to new data from the Saudi Arabia-based Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI), global oil demand surpassed pre-pandemic levels in March, at 101%, despite declines in Chinese demand. However, the report noted that crude oil production was at 97% of pre-COVID levels. The data is based on submissions that account for 70% of global oil demand and 55% of global crude production. 

end

Tesla/Shanghai

Major problems in Shanghai still persist for Tesla

(zerohedge)

100,000 More Recalls And Even More Shanghai Delays Sting Tesla To Start The Week

MONDAY, MAY 16, 2022 – 07:25 PM

Just as it started to look like everything had finally been sorted out for Tesla in Shanghai, we reported last week that the company once again had to halt its production due to “issues with supplies”. 

Starting off this week, it doesn’t look like things are getting any better. First, Bloomberg reported that “no vehicles were sold in Shanghai last month” as a result of the lockdown, according to an auto-seller association in the city. 

Meanwhile, Tesla’s plans to restart Shanghai to its pre-pandemic production levels have been pushed back another week, Reuters reported this weekend. Citing an internal memo, Reuters wrote that Tesla is still planning on just one shift for its plant this week and a daily output of about 1,200 units.

Tesla is aiming for 2,600 units per day by May 23. 

Additionally, it was reported Monday that Tesla would be recalling over 100,000 vehicles in China. 107,293 vehicles in China will be recalled “due to safety risks”, according to the China People’s Daily

The recall, which relates to a defect in the central touchscreen during fast charging, “involves Model 3 and Model Y vehicles produced in the country between Oct 19, 2021, and April 26, 2022,” the report says. 

Recall, Tesla’s most recent Shanghai shutdown came just three weeks after the plant resumed production. The plant was closed for a total of 22 days, Reuters noted. Shanghai is now in its seventh week of lockdowns, and we noted last week that it was “unclear when the supply issues can be resolved and when Tesla can resume production”.

Wire harness maker Aptiv is one supplier who is currently facing issues due to “infections found among its employees”, we reported last week. Meanwhile, Tesla had just started to eye resuming double shifts at its plant, we noted two weeks ago. The plant was making plans to “resume double shifts” at its Shanghai factory as soon as mid-May after starting back up in mid April.

end

This is new:  we are starting to see a rift between the WHO and China on how to handle to virus

(Tucker/Brownstone)

The New Rift Between WHO And China

MONDAY, MAY 16, 2022 – 07:45 PM

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

From the beginning of the pandemic, the World Health Organization and China’s CCP have worked and spoken hand-in-glove, culminating in the Potemkin Village junket of mid-February 2020. The WHO-sponsored travel report—how wonderfully China had performed!—was written and signed by American public health officials who recommended Wuhan-style lockdowns, a disastrous policy that further inspired most governments in the world to do the same.

Twenty-six months later, it turns out that China in fact had not “eliminated the virus fully within its borders,” contrary to the over-the-top claims of TV pundit Devi Sridhar in her new book “Preventable.” They only pushed cases into the future, as the CCP discovered when positive tests appeared all over Shanghai, leading to 7 weeks of brutal lockdowns.

This move on China’s part has been a disaster for the country and the world economy, and presently endangers the financial and technological future of the entire country.

For Xi Jinping, lockdowns and zero-covid were his greatest achievement, one which was celebrated the world over, causing his political pride to swell beyond all bounds. Now, he cannot back off lest he face possible losses in upcoming party elections.

Just this past weekend, he made it clear to the entire government that there would be no backing off the zero-covid policy: the CCP will “unswervingly adhere to the general policy of ‘dynamic zero-Covid,’ and resolutely fight against any words and deeds that distort, doubt or deny our country’s epidemic prevention policies.”

The problem is acute: vast numbers in China likely need to acquire natural immunity via exposure. The lockdown policy likely puts a damper on the achievement of endemicity. That means long-term damage to China’s future.

Sensing this problem, the head of the WHO, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, offered a mild criticism:

“Considering the behavior of the virus, I think a shift will be very important,” adding that he had discussed this point with Chinese scientists.

What happened next is truly fascinating: Tedros’s comments were censored all over China and searches for the name Tedros were immediately blocked within the country.

Implausibly, merely by stating the incredibly obvious point, Tedros has made himself an enemy of the state.

Meanwhile, another WHO/China partisan, Bill Gates, has been sheepishly saying something very similar in interviews, namely that the virus cannot be eradicated.

It’s not just Tedros and Gates who are trying to flee their advocacy of lockdowns. Anthony Fauci himself denied that the United States ever had “complete lockdowns”—which is technically correct but not because he didn’t demand them.

On March 16, 2020, Fauci faced the national press and read from a CDC directive: “In states with evidence of community transmission, bars, restaurants, food courts, gyms and other indoor and outdoor venues where groups of people congregate should be closed.”

In fact, one gets the strong sense that governments around the world are pretending as if the whole pathetic and terrible affair never happened, even as they are attempting to reserve the power to do it all over again should the need arise.

On May 12, 2022, many governments around the world gathered for a video call and agreed to pour many billions more into covid work, and reaffirm their dedication to an “all-of-society” and “whole-of-government” approach to infectious disease. The U.S. government under the administration readily agreed to this idea.

Leaders reinforced the value of whole-of-government and whole-of-society approaches to bring the acute phase of COVID-19 to an end, and the importance of being prepared for future pandemic threats. The Summit was focused on preventing complacency, recognizing the pandemic is not over; protecting the most vulnerable, including the elderly, immunocompromised people, and frontline and health workers; and preventing future health crises, recognizing now is the time to secure political and financial commitment for pandemic preparedness.

The Summit catalyzed bold commitments. Financially, leaders committed to provide nearly $2 billion in new funding—additional to pledges made earlier in 2022. These funds will accelerate access to vaccinations, testing, and treatments, and they will contribute to a new pandemic preparedness and global health security fund housed at the World Bank.

Is it progress to see these people throwing around language from the much-criticized but now wholly vindicated Great Barrington Declaration? Doubtful. You can’t make a bad policy better by tossing around words. There is every indication from this statement that there will be no apologies, no regrets, and no changes in the default position that governments must always and everywhere have maximum power to control any pathogen of their choosing.

Despite Tedros’s censored words, it’s no wonder that Xi Jinping continues to feel vindicated and affirmed, and sees no real political danger in choosing his own power over the health and well-being of his people. Governments around the world still cannot muster the courage to make a full-throated and solid attack on zero-covid, for fear of the implications of such a concession. Nudges and hints, even from the WHO, will not do it.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/EU

GERMANY/RUSSIA //GAS

German Industry President warns that cutting off Russian gas would be “catastrophic”

(zerohedge)

Cutting Off Russian Gas Would Be “Catastrophic”, German Industry President Warns

TUESDAY, MAY 17, 2022 – 04:15 AM

As we detailed yesterday, almost two months after Europe rushed to declare it would impose unprecedented sanctions on Russia in response to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine with no regard for how such sanctions would boomerang and cripple its own economies, the old continent which was and still remains hostage to Russian energy exports, is finally grasping the underlying math which was all too clear to Vladimir Putin long ago.

The European Union’s executive arm said yesterday that the currency bloc’s economy would expand about 0.2% this year, with inflation topping 9%, as governments struggled to replace the imports.

This severe stagflationary scenario is highlighted by Siegfried Russwurm, president of the Germany’s biggest industry association BDI, warning that the cessation of Russian gas deliveries would have a dire effect on the German economy.

“The consequences of cutting off Russian gas supplies would be catastrophic,” he told tabloid Bild am Sonntag in an interview published at the weekend.

Russwurm added that cutting off Russian gas would deprive businesses of fuel in Germany, forcing businesses to close production lines.

“In this situation many companies will be completely cut off gas supplies. In many cases, affected businesses will be forced to stop production, some businesses may never be able to start again,” he warned.

Europe’s “sudden realization” of just how destructive pushing through with full-blown sanctions will be, somewhat similar to that of Elon Musk who “learned” about the millions in Twitter spam accounts only after bidding $44 billion – is why over the weekend, Bloomberg reported that the European Union is set to fully water down its so-called sanctions and to offer gas importers a solution to avoid a breach of sanctions when buying fuel from Russia while satisfying President Vladimir Putin’s demands over payment in rubles.

All of which helps explain why the Ruble is trading at a five-year high against the euro…

And in typical European fashion, the messaging is full of confusion, with guidance for companies is one thing while the propaganda disseminated for public consumption totally different, all the while the biggest winner remains Putin and Russia which yesterday reported a new record high in its current account.

END

ITALY

Salvini warns that food shortages could cause 20 million African migrants to enter Europe 

(Watson/SummitNews)

Italy’s Salvini Warns Food Shortages Could Cause 20 Million African Migrants To Enter Europe

TUESDAY, MAY 17, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Italian League party leader Matteo Salvini has warned that if the war in Ukraine does not end soon, chronic food shortages will cause an immigration wave that will lead to 20 million African migrants trying to enter Europe.

If Ukrainian grain supplies continue to be impacted, Salvini cautions, “Significant hunger is expected on the African continent, which will be a humanitarian, then a social, and finally an Italian problem.”

“Without peace there will be famine in the autumn and 20 million Africans will be ready to go,” he added.

Salvini predicts that a new migrant crisis will unfold if a ceasefire and subsequent peace isn’t achieved by the end of this month, noting that this was “essential for Ukraine, Russia and Italy as well.”

Italy’s former Minister of the Interior is urgently asking for a meeting with Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who recently returned from a meeting with Joe Biden, to push the issue of a ceasefire.

Salvini said that European countries pouring weapons into the region was making peace an increasingly distant possibility.

“If 80 billion euros are spent on weapons in Europe, it will be difficult to achieve peace, the more weapons there are, the more distant peace will get,” he warned.

“There are those in Europe who are in favor of war, but Italy, France and Germany must act for peace,” he added, speaking out against Italy sending a third arms shipment to Ukraine.

Ukraine was the world’s 6th largest exporter of wheat before the war began.

Last week, it was revealed that £6.8billion of wheat in Ukraine is being blocked from export due to the war blocking off access to the sea.

The world is currently beset with food price hikes and shortages of key products such as sunflower oil, which are now starting to be rationed.

END

France, Germany and Italy favour negotiations to end the Ukraine war but not the uSA

(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)

France, Germany & Italy Favor Negotiations To End Ukraine War

TUESDAY, MAY 17, 2022 – 08:03 AM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

In recent weeks, the leaders of the three largest EU countries by population — France, Germany, and Italy — have all come out in favor of negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow as a way to end the fighting in Ukraine.

Unlike President Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi have all spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24.

The three European leaders have all signed off on sending weapons to the Ukrainians but have also been calling for a ceasefire. After speaking with Putin by phone on Friday, Scholz wrote on Twitter: “There must be a ceasefire in Ukraine as quickly as possible.”

In an address to European Parliament last week, Macron said, “We are not at war with Russia.” He said that Europe’s “duty is to stand with Ukraine to achieve a ceasefire, then build peace.”

Draghi met with President Biden last week, and after the meeting, the Italian leader, who previously discouraged talks with Russia, said it was time to start thinking about a peace deal. “We agreed that we must continue to support Ukraine and put pressure on Moscow, but also begin to ask how to build peace,” Draghi said.

The German Chancellor’s statement is as follows:

“People … want to think about the possibility of bringing a ceasefire and starting again some credible negotiations. That’s the situation right now. I think that we have to think deeply on how to address this,” Draghi added.

After the Biden-Draghi meeting, the White House still appeared to be uninterested in negotiations. “We feel the most constructive role is to continue to support the Ukrainians’ hands at the negotiating table and support them militarily,” White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recently spoke with his Russian counterpart for the first time since Russia invaded, but Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the US’s top diplomat, has yet to speak with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The two diplomats last spoke on February 15.

Meanwhile, direct Ukraine-Russia talks which had been frequent through the first month-and-a-half of the invasion faltered and then were terminated…

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson shares Washington’s view on negotiations. Johnson recently told Macron in a call that he “urged” Ukraine not to hold talks with Russia and reportedly told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on April 9 that even if Kyiv was ready to sign a deal with Moscow, the West was not.

Other hawkish NATO countries have come out against talks with Moscow. In early April, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki slammed Macron for speaking with Putin, likening it to “negotiating with Hitler.”

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/

At least 300 Azov fighters surrender to Russians at the Azovstal plant ending the siege

(zerohedge)

At Least 300 Azov Fighters Surrender To Russians At Azovstal Plant, Ending Lengthy Siege

MONDAY, MAY 16, 2022 – 10:05 PM

The more than month-long standoff at Mariupol’s Azovstal steelworks plant is finally over, after for many weeks the siege of the large complex by Russian forces remained the focus of international headlines, and following a series of high-risk civilian evacuations, some of them under the auspices of UN and Red Cross emergency teams.

The remnant hundreds of armed Ukrainian Azov battalion militants which had refused to come out have now surrendered in the Monday night hours. “Reuters saw about a dozen buses apparently carrying Ukrainian fighters leaving the plant on Monday. It was not possible to determine how many people were aboard.”

Widespread reports say that some 300 Ukrainian fighters have laid down their weapons and emerged from the cavernous facility. “More than 260 Ukrainian soldiers were evacuated from the besieged Azovstal steel plant in the port city of Mariupol,” Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Ganna Malyar said. Another “53 heavily wounded (soldiers) were evacuated from Azovstal to the medical mortgage near Novoazovsk for medical aid,” according to Malyar’s statement.

Azov issued a statement on Telegram saying they are “implementing the approved decision of the Supreme Military Command” in order to “save lives”

And the Russian side has since confirmed that “An agreement has been reached on the removal of the wounded,” according to a Russian defense ministry statement. “A humanitarian corridor has been opened through which wounded Ukrainian servicemen are being taken to a medical facility in Novoazovsk.”

Russian media is also widely reporting the surrender at Azovstal, with RT airing some of the first footage of the evacuation of the last fighters to leave…

The Moscow Times is quoting confirmation from Ukraine’s president – who is applauding the safe surrender: 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said “we hope to save the lives of our boys.”

“I want to underline: Ukraine needs its Ukrainian heroes alive. This is our principle,” he said in a video statement.

Crucially, Novoazovsk – where the wounded Ukrainian fighters are being taken – is in Russian-controlled territory about 40km east of Mariupol. The surrendered troops are reportedly now in the custody of the pro-Moscow Donetsk People’s Republic. Likely Kiev will seek to negotiate their return for captured Russians currently in Ukrainian military custody.

Azov battalion, which has long been widely acknowledged even in prior mainstream media reporting as a neo-Nazi group, is asking the Ukrainian public for continued “support” – given this surrender (after previously vowing multiple to times to ‘fight till the end’) will likely be viewed by some as premature capitulation. During the long siege, all that were stuck in the facility had been running out of food, supplies, and ammunition as Russian forces had them completely surrounded. Last month President Putin is said to have ordered the military to simply wait them out, as opposed to what would have likely been a high death toll operation to enter the underground complex beneath the huge plant.

END

SOMALIA/USA

the true definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over again hoping for a different outcome. It will not happen;

Biden orders USA troops back to war torn Somalia

(zerohedge)

Biden Orders US Troops Back To War-Torn Somalia, Reversing Trump Withdrawal

MONDAY, MAY 16, 2022 – 11:25 PM

White House officials have announced that President Biden will reverse Trump’s Somalia withdrawal of US forces as the fight with al-Shabaab Islamic militants heats up. This includes talk of a return to a policy of indefinite “boots on the ground” – or as one senior official was quoted as saying – “a persistent US military presence” there.

“President Biden has approved a request from the Secretary of Defense to reestablish a persistent U.S. military presence in Somalia to enable a more effective fight against al-Shabaab, which has increased in strength and poses a heightened threat,” a senior admin official said to The Hill Monday.

“This is a repositioning of forces already in theater who have travelled in and out of Somalia on an episodic basis since the previous administration made the decision to withdraw in January 2021,” the official added.

Further The New York Times has also confirmed that “Biden secretly signed an order in early May authorizing the military to redeploy 100s of Special Forces into Somalia and to target about a dozen Al Shabab leaders” underscoring too that it’s reversal of a “last minute” Trump policy that went into effect within that last two months of his administration. The report said additionally that likely no more than 450 troops would be deployed.

Upon Trump’s ordered December 2020 withdrawal of US troops from Somalia, there had been an estimated 700 there in support of counterterror operations. The country has suffered from decades of intermittent civil war, and running conflicts between competing warlords.

Over the past three decades the war-torn country in the Horn of Africa only sporadically hits the news when things go horribly wrong, such as with major pirate attacks on tankers in the Gulf of Aden, or the November 2020 death of a CIA officer reportedly during a raid on a suspected al-Shabaab bomb-maker, and then there’s the disastrous ‘Black Hawk Down’ 1993 mission wherein 18 American soldiers were killed.

US intelligence officials have in the past months been vocalizing their concerns that the terrorist organization al-Shabaab is spreading due to their being no significant military pressure on them. In recent years the Pentagon has established dozens or even perhaps hundreds of small forward operating bases across the African continent, ostensibly as part of broadly defined ‘counterterror’ support given to allied host nations.

Critics, however, have denounced the rapid growth of AFRICOM as part of continued post-9/11 ‘imperialist’ US expansion, pointing also to US-NATO military intervention in Libya against Gaddafi as part of regime change operations, and as a new “scramble” for influence over the continent in competition with China grows, and even to a lesser degree towards thwarting a growing Russian presence in unstable countries like Mali. Are we witnessing the return to a (failed) Global War on Terror (GWOT) posture across the Mideast/North Africa region under the Democratic administration? It appears so

END.

TURKEY//SWEDEN/FINLAND

Turkey formally slams the door on approving Sweden and Finland in their NATO bids citing their nesting ground for terrorist organizations.  Totally nuts

(zerohedge)

Erdogan Slams Door On Approving Sweden, Finland NATO Bids: ‘Nesting Ground For Terrorist Orgs’

TUESDAY, MAY 17, 2022 – 09:15 AM

In fresh Monday comments, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan issued his firmest words of rejection yet concerning Finland and Sweden’s announced bids to join NATO. Over the weekend after Erdogan first stated Turkey is “not favorable” toward the Scandinavian countries entering the alliance, there was widespread speculation among officials quoted in Western media reports that Turkish reluctance could be easily resolved.  

When asked about Turkey’s reservations on Sunday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said “I’m very confident that we will reach consensus on that” – somewhat dodging the severity of Ankara’s recent unambiguous statements as nothing at all to worry about in terms of a NATO unified front. But now Erdogan has defiantly poured cold water on the collective Western enthusiasm for achieving the consensus needed among the 30 NATO member states to admit new countries. There was even talk of ‘fast-tracking’ them, which now seems like a fantasy in light of Turkey’s stance.

Bloomberg too notes following Erdogan’s Monday speech that “he intends to block membership for the two countries, or at least extract concessions for it” – following their separate weekend announcements which came hours apart, affirming they will apply.

“These two countries lack a clear stance against terrorism” and “Sweden is a nesting ground for terrorist organizations,” Erdogan said. He pointed out that both countries have joined other European allies in imposing “sanctions” on Turkey, specifically recent restrictions on arms sales to Ankara going back to 2019 in context of the running war with Kurdish groups along its southern border. Turkey’s military has also continued to intervene against the Syrian Kurdish YPG which has US and Western backing.

“First of all, we cannot say ‘yes’ to those who impose sanctions on Turkey, on joining NATO which is a security organization,” Erdogan stressed while standing alongside his Algerian counterpart Abdelmadjid Tebboune at the press conference in Ankara. “How can we trust them?” he posed in reference to Sweden and Finland.

Amid the blistering comments, Erdogan addressed earlier Monday statements by the Swedish foreign office indicating top officials would be dispatched from Helsinki and Stockholm to Turkey in order to address the objections. Stunningly, (or perhaps no surprise at all) Erdogan dismissed the diplomatic attempts before they even begin. The diplomats “should not bother” coming, he said, if they hope to change Turkey’s mind on the matter. 

According to Turkey’s Daily Sabah, in addressing the overture he again took the opportunity to apply the ‘terror supporters’ label

“They say they will come to Turkey on Monday. Are they coming to convince us? Excuse me but they should not tire themselves,” he noted.

Erdoğan said NATO would become “a place where representatives of terrorist organizations are concentrated” if the two countries join.

Starting Friday, Erdogan said that “Sweden has become a home for PKK and other terror groups” – which was echoed again the following day by Turkey’s foreign minister to a gathering of NATO ministers in Berlin. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the same time expressed optimism that this would be worked through, suggesting it’s but a “last-minute wrinkle” as described in Bloomberg.

Turkish commentary on the topic has grown more and more unbending by the day (on Saturday FM  Cavusoglu said the idea was “outrageous”), clearly demonstrating this is no small wrinkle at all, but is instead the Western military alliance’s second largest military in effect slamming the door on the prospect – or at least until it gets significant concessions.

As we described earlier the Turkish “demands” have already begun

Turkey laid out demands on Sunday on the sidelines of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Berlin, saying it wanted the two Nordic countries to end support for Kurdish militant groups present on their territory, and to lift the ban on sales of some arms to Turkey.

With the West desperate to keep up the pressure on Moscow amid the grinding Ukraine war (increasingly looking much more like a Russia vs. NATO proxy war), circumstances certainly now put Turkey in the driver’s seat. Like with the recent years’ S-400 saga which put Ankara at the center of a tug-of-war with Moscow and Washington, Turkey’s leadership can now use its considerable leverage on the NATO membership question to get what it wants out of NATO allies. Brussels must of course achieve full consensus in order to admit Sweden and Finland – the latter which shares an 810-mile border with Russia. Moscow has in turn threatened possible “military and technical” actions.

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE/ Monkey Pox

A Bizarre Skin Disease Is Mysteriously Spreading In The UK

Due to the high vaccination rates in the UK we are now witnessing a rare rise in Monkeypox.(similar to smallpox) We hope that this does not turn into a pandemic by itself

(Michael Snyder)

MONKEY POX

 

 

TUESDAY, MAY 17, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Monkeypox is a disease that I have been monitoring for quite a while now.  It is not supposed to spread easily from human to human, and hopefully that is still true.  But human cases are now popping up in the UK, and authorities are not exactly sure how it is spreading.  As we have seen with COVID, deadly diseases can mutate in dangerous and unpredictable ways.  And as we have also seen, a handful of human cases can ultimately turn into a worldwide pandemic.  So we should definitely keep an eye on this alarming new outbreak in the UK, because it could potentially become something much larger.

On Saturday, health authorities in the UK announced that two more human cases of monkeypox have been confirmed

Two more cases of rare viral monkeypox infection have been diagnosed in England, health authorities said on Saturday, adding that they are not linked to one reported a week ago.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said the latest infections involved people living in the same household and an investigation was underway into how they contracted the virus.

But these two new cases did not have any contact with the first case that was confirmed on May 7th.

So authorities are in a race to figure out how they could have contracted it.

As for the case that was confirmed on May 7th, authorities believe that the victim was infected in Nigeria

It comes after the first case was detected in a person who recently flew into the UK from Nigeria on May 7.

The patient received specialist care in an isolation unit at Guy’s and St Thomas’ infectious disease hospital unit in London, according to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).

Hopefully these cases have been isolated quickly enough and officials will be able to successfully contain these outbreaks.

Because monkeypox is not something that you want to mess around with.

It is similar to smallpox, but the good news is that it is usually not as severe.  The following comes from the official CDC website

In humans, the symptoms of monkeypox are similar to but milder than the symptoms of smallpox. Monkeypox begins with fever, headache, muscle aches, and exhaustion. The main difference between symptoms of smallpox and monkeypox is that monkeypox causes lymph nodes to swell (lymphadenopathy) while smallpox does not. The incubation period (time from infection to symptoms) for monkeypox is usually 7−14 days but can range from 5−21 days.

Since it has such a long incubation period, that would make it an ideal candidate for a global pandemic if it mutates into a form that can spread easily among humans.

According to the CDC, monkeypox has a death rate in humans of about 10 percent…

The illness typically lasts for 2−4 weeks. In Africa, monkeypox has been shown to cause death in as many as 1 in 10 persons who contract the disease.

COVID has a death rate of much less than 1 percent in humans, and it paralyzed the globe for two years.

So can you imagine what a pandemic with a death rate of about 10 percent would do?

Speaking of pandemics, the bird flu continues to spread like wildfire all across the United States.

Last week, a case was confirmed at a commercial facility in the state of Michigan for the very first time

The state has found avian influenza at a commercial turkey farm in eastern Muskegon County, forcing the farm to kill its stock in an effort to prevent the virus from spreading.

While the state did not release the name of the farm, an employee at Sietsema Farms confirmed to News 8 it one of its facilities is involved.

This is the first confirmed case of bird flu at a commercial poultry operation in Michigan, the Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development said.

There are still quite a few states that have completely escaped this plague so far, but in the states where it has hit the consequences have been absolutely devastating.

PBS is reporting that “over 37 million birds are dead across more than 30 states”, and since that figure is from earlier this month the true death toll is probably significantly higher by now.

Since early February, we have gone from one confirmed case at a commercial facility in the U.S. to more than 37 million dead.

That is scary.

And a few weeks ago, the CDC confirmed a human case of the bird flu in Colorado

A person has tested positive for avian influenza A(H5) virus (H5 bird flu) in the U.S., as reported by Colorado and confirmed by CDC. This case occurred in a person who had direct exposure to poultry and was involved in the culling (depopulating) of  poultry with presumptive H5N1 bird flu. The patient reported fatigue for a few days as their only symptom and has since recovered. The patient is being isolated and treated with the influenza antiviral drug oseltamivir. While it is possible the detection of H5 bird flu in this specimen is a result of surface contamination of the nasal membrane, that can’t be determined at this point and the positive test result meets the criteria for an H5 case. The appropriate public health response at this time is to assume this is an infection and take actions to contain and treat.

The CDC says that the death rate for the bird flu in humans can be as high as 60 percent.

So we better hope that the bird flu never mutates into a form that can spread easily among humans.

If you follow my work on a regular basis, then you already know that I believe that we have entered an era of great pestilences.

All over the globe, curious scientists are monkeying around with extremely deadly diseases, and as we have seen it is way too easy for deadly diseases to escape from a lab environment.

We are tempting fate every single day, and at some point our luck will run out.

Hopefully it will not be tomorrow, but without a doubt a day of reckoning is fast approaching.

*  *  *

It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

end

Pfizer Jab In Young People Only 20% Effective After 60 Days, 0% After 5 Months

TUESDAY, MAY 17, 2022 – 01:36 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine turned negatively effective after five months, according to a new study.

Researchers with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) analyzed test results from sites across the United States and determined that the vaccine was 60 percent effective two to four weeks after 12- to 15-year-olds got the second of the two-dose primary regimen.

But the effectiveness, measured against symptomatic illness, quickly plummeted, hitting 20 percent around month two and zero around month five.

After that, recipients in the age group were more likely to be infected by COVID-19.

Vaccine effectiveness “was no longer significantly different from 0 during month 3 after the second dose,” the researchers wrote in the study, which was published by the Journal of the American Medical Association.

Pfizer, its partner BioNTech, and the CDC didn’t respond to requests for comment.

The analyzed tests were performed between Dec. 26, 2021, and Feb. 21, 2022. Some 47,700 tests among 12- to 15-year-olds were included, with about half being unvaccinated. The testing data was on the Increasing Community Access to Testing, a program funded by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services that contracts with pharmacy chains to perform drive-through testing. The testing data was supplemented by information in questionnaires filled out by adults with the adolescents.

Limitations of the study included vaccination being self-reported.

The study was funded by the U.S. government.

The study also found that vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection plunged quickly for those 5 to 11 years old, starting at 60 percent but hitting 23 percent just one month later.

One way to combat the negative effectiveness, researchers said, was to get a booster dose.

Of the 906 12- to 15-year-olds who got a third, or booster, dose, the effectiveness was measured at 71 percent two to six weeks after receipt.

Other studies, though, show that the protection from a booster, like that from the primary regimen, quickly wanes.

“Given the well-established pattern of waning mRNA VE after 2 doses and early evidence of waning of booster dose protection in adults, monitoring the duration of protection from booster doses in adolescents will be important,” researchers said.

Both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are built on messenger RNA (mRNA) technology. VE refers to vaccine effectiveness.

In another study published by the same journal on May 13, New York researchers reported the gap of infection and hospitalization risk between unvaccinated and vaccinated youth narrowing over time, with vaccinated 5- to 11-year-olds being infected at a rate of 62 per 100,000 and unvaccinated being infected at a rate of 70 per 100,000.

That was an incidence rate ratio of 1.1; the rate ratio for 12- to 17-year-olds was 2.

The protection also waned considerably against hospitalization over time, researchers found.

They said that the findings support “efforts to increase vaccination coverage in children and adolescents.

END

Higher COVID-19 Infection Rates Among Vaccinated Children Than Unvaccinated, CDC Data Show

Inbox

Milan Sabioncello8:32 AM (0 minutes ago)
to me

Higher COVID-19 Infection Rates Among Vaccinated Children Than Unvaccinated, CDC Data Show
https://link.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/higher-covid-19-infection-rates-among-vaccinated-children-than-unvaccinated-cdc-data-show_4470005.html

end

GLOBAL ISSUES//FOOD

Goya CEO issues his dire warning on looming food crisis

(Philips/EpochTimes)

Goya CEO Issues Dire Warning On Looming Food Crisis

MONDAY, MAY 16, 2022 – 05:45 PM

By Ella Kietlinska and Joshua Philipp of the Epoch Times

Policies leading to a war on fossil fuel as well as the Russian invasion of Ukraine will contribute to a food crisis, according to Robert Unanue, President and CEO of Goya Foods. “We are on the precipice of food shortage.”

Russia and Ukraine together produce half of the fertilizer used in the United States and fertilizer prices have quadrupled, Unanue said on EpochTV’s “Crossroads” program.

However, the fourfold surge in fertilizer prices will affect African and European countries more severely than the United States because the latter is currently more independent with regard to food, Unanue said, with the big problem being that it’s planting season in southeastern Ukraine and people are fighting a war.

“There’s two and a half million acres of sunflowers to be planted,” he said. Farmers there will be planting less and yielding less, because of the rising costs and the lack of good yield. “It’s going to send food prices spiraling.”

Both Ukraine and Russia are major producers of the world’s wheat and corn. Together, they account for about 29 percent of global wheat exports, 19 percent of global corn supply, and 80 percent of global sunflower oil exports.

Moreover, the irrigation systems in southeastern Ukraine have been bombed and ports have been cut off, Unanue noted. Mariupol, a port on the Azov Sea, has already been cut off, and Odesa, a Black Sea port, is the next target, he added. “That will landlock Ukraine and prevent them from exporting.”

The biggest component of food cost is transportation, so the current war on fossil fuels has made the United States no longer oil independent.

“Shipping in a pipeline is free,” he said. “But when you put it on a ship, with rates 10 times where they were two years ago, we are buying oil at retail.”

Nitrogen-based fertilizers are made from natural gas, so the war on fossil fuels and energy independence also impacts the cost of fertilizers, Unanue said.

The CEO gave an example of coconut water, which his company imports from Thailand in bulk, to illustrate the impact of the surge in transportation costs.

A case of coconut water used to cost $1.44, but now the cost per case has increased to $15 due to rising transportation expenditure, he said. “That’s an inflation, a tenfold inflation.”

Goya has embarked on a mission to provide humanitarian and spiritual aid to Ukrainian refugees in Poland. The company partnered with organizations and individuals such as the Knights of Columbus of Poland, Global Empowerment Mission (GEM), and ex-U.S. green berets who will distribute food donated by Goya from its European facility as well as rosaries donated by Americans, Unanue said.

He said the ex-green berets are very courageous men, having gone into 40 cities in Ukraine with food and medicine.

“We’re there with nourishing the body, but we also want to nourish the soul,” he said of the company’s creed.

“God created humanity. But humanity has created the way to destroy itself—nuclear, chemical, biological,” Unanue said. “Now we’re using food as a weapon. We have to move closer to God.”

“We need to love and build, not hate and destroy. And that’s our mission.”

With a food crisis looming, recent fires and other accidents that occurred at a multitude of food processing facilities within the last few months, raising concerns over yet another burden on an already vulnerable food industry.

Unanue said that such incidents often occur due to deferring preventive maintenance of these facilities during the COVID-19 pandemic. When lockdowns were imposed on most companies and businesses, the food industry kept working.

Since then, Goya has doubled its capacity and its facilities operate around the clock, but “any factory needs to stop for maintenance at least once a year,” he said, adding that Goya’s plants stop twice a year for maintenance.

end

VACCINE IMPACT

Prenatal and Neonatal Infant Deaths Skyrocket Worldwide Since COVID-19 Vaccines Started

May 16, 2022 4:39 pm

For many years we have reported how vaccines have been used as a means to control birth rates in an effort to reduce the world’s population, especially in developing countries like many in Africa. In 2014 we reported how the tetanus shot was distributed in Kenya by the United Nations, but only given to girls and young women who were child-bearing ages, but not boys, and later it was discovered that these “tetanus shots” contained the HCG antigen which is used in anti-fertility vaccines. So it is no surprise to those of us who have been “anti-vaccine” for many years now and covering these issues, that the COVID-19 “vaccines” are causing the deaths of prenatal and neonatal babies worldwide to skyrocket, giving strong evidence that this is part of the efforts to reduce the world’s population. The only thing that has changed, is that this effort to reduce the world’s population is now happening in every country, including rich western nations, and not just in poor countries. In Scotland, it was just reported that an investigation into a “very unusual” spike in deaths among newborn babies in Scotland occurred for the second time in just six months. Spikes in infant deaths are also being reported from funeral homes, as this report from Australia cites whistleblowers who are too afraid to come forward and report this. As of the latest update to the U.S. Government’s Vaccine Adverse Reporting System (VAERS) there have now been 4,154 fetal deaths reported following COVID-19 vaccines, a period of about 17 months. For the previous 30 years prior to the launch of the experimental COVID-19 vaccines, there were only 2,239 fetal deaths from ALL FDA-approved vaccines. And yet, the criminal FDA and CDC continue to recommend the COVID-19 vaccines for pregnant women.

Read More…


Crypto Currency Crash: $300 Billion in Market Value Lost Last Week

May 16, 2022 5:26 pm

Crypto was in full-blown crash mode last week, wiping out more than $300 billion in market value. TerraUSD, a so-called stablecoin that is supposed to trade at a “stable” $1 value, crashed to a few cents on the dollar. Its sister cryptocurrency, Luna, likewise imploded. Then there was Bitcoin, which Warren Buffett has called “rat poison squared.” Bitcoin plunged further last week and is now down more than 30 percent year-to-date. So much for the hype that it would be an inflation hedge like gold.

Read More…



END

Michael Every//

Michael Every on the day’s most important topics

Rabobank: Everything Is Happening Everywhere All At Once

TUESDAY, MAY 17, 2022 – 09:50 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Everything Everywhere All At Once

Today’s title, referencing a soon-to-be-released movie that looks a superior version of a multiverse of madness than the one starring Dr Strange, nicely sums up our current global situation. Everything is happening everywhere all at once – yet key markets are failing to capture it or aren’t explaining the second or third order implications where they are.

US stocks failed to carry over the Friday dead-cat bounce on Monday, with the S&P -0.4% and the NASDAQ -1.2%. Treasury yields correspondingly went down, with the 10-year at 2.88% (-6bps) and the 2-year at 2.54% (-3bps). So did the USD, slightly. However, the real move was in oil, which rose more than 3% regardless on news Shanghai is to reopen slightly. As Bloomberg put it, ‘Bonds Signal Inflation Peaking Even as Commodities Spike,’ adding “Inflation expectations in the US bond market are subsiding despite the recent resurgence in the commodity complex. That aligns well with the perception that the risk of recession is increasing. At some point supply-shock-driven inflation is likely to bring about its own demise via demand destruction, and bond investors look to be signalling we are getting close to a tipping point for broad price gains even if wheat and crude stay elevated.”

I always listen to the bond market over the equity and FX markets; or at least I used to when we had a real bond market rather than one where yields are pegged by the BOJ, leaving otherwise silly FX as the only market with common sense. Today, one must add commodities as ones to watch. Oil and wheat are only a small part of CPI. However, you mess with them, and you mess with everything everywhere all at once, directly or via second or third order effects.

The same Wall Street which wrongly shouted “transitory!” all the way to 8.5% y-o-y US headline CPI and now-entrenched services-sector inflation, and who have never been to a port or a warehouse, or driven a truck, or a forklift, are now confidently telling us that inflation has peaked. They are correct the US is, as Lloyd Blankfein just put it, at “very, very, very high risk” of a recession. Indeed, US Michigan consumer confidence just collapsed to a near multi-decade low, the complete opposite of what we saw the last time the Fed was hiking like it is now back in 2000 – and about to burst a different tech bubble.

However, oil is at $113 and rising despite the slowdown. US retail gasoline just hit a new record high in nominal terms, and even in real terms is not far off the peaks seen around the Arab Spring- or the Iranian Revolution. Those in the know underline that even if more oil were pumped, it would not help because the problem is the structural lack of capacity at refineries, which will take a long, long time to reverse. That feeds into the price of almost *everything*.

With a lag, into food – which also leads into the price of everything else given demand is to a large degree inelastic. Unsurprisingly, we hear more warnings of food shortages. This apparently means little to a Wall Street which worries most about which low-carb lunch option to have delivered by the Western equivalent of India’s dabbawalas, as it dresses up the Dickensian DM-meet-EM-in-the-middle I was predicting back in the early 2000s as techno-progress. Until they need to find infant formula, that is.

Likewise, as covered in our ‘In Deep Ship’ report, US supply chains remain structurally hampered. Truckers, who face soaring diesel prices, are seeing freight demand slump along with the slowing economy: if this carries on, many will go to the wall, removing a vital cog from the logistics machine when it needs to ramp up again. Rail is overloaded and underfunded. And, as we mentioned in 2021 after listening to people in the relevant industry rather than Wall Street, the International Longshoremen’s Association President, representing the port union on the US East and Gulf coasts, just said that he will “fight tooth and nail” against further marine terminal automation,” adding, “Automation does two things: it makes the companies rich and the longshore workers unemployed.” In short, expect strikes to shut down US ports again, meaning nobody gets any of the goods they need regardless of price.

One can look at all of this and say that it just ‘means recession’, and so lower bond yields. Yet that is not seeing everything that is happening everywhere all at once.

Sri Lanka is officially down to its last day of petrol. It was already going hungry – now it will be immobile. Angry people were already burning down politicians’ houses. Now they seem to be attacking anyone looking wealthy. ‘Oh, that’s just Sri Lanka,’ some say. True. But Iran is seeing food protests; so is Tajikistan. Significantly lower bond yields, when oil and food prices are rising and demand is largely inelastic, and “demand destruction” means hunger, is not something that ‘just happens’ like it could when commodity prices were low. Especially not when it also implies a collapse in the stock market and in housing and soaring unemployment to boot. Yes, such a global risk-off phase may be bullish for core bond yields like the US and Germany – but in many places it is a potential disaster. If Wall Street continues to say commodities don’t matter and inflation has peaked, the likelihood is that we will see dozens more African, Middle Eastern, and Asian countries experiencing exactly the same socio-political destabilisation.

Consider that if Wall Street is saying inflation has now peaked, and is pushing bond yields lower, it is taking the Fed’s foot off the gas in terms of financial conditions – naturally, in a self-serving manner that helps prop up asset prices. One arguably needs to look at a matrix of bond yields and commodity prices:

  • If bond yields are rising and so are commodities, the Fed are behind the curve – chaos follows everywhere all at once.
  • If bond yields are falling and so are commodities, the Fed has achieved its goal – alongside a global recession and far lower asset prices.
  • If bond yields are rising and commodities are falling, the Fed is on its way to its goal – but assets fall too.
  • If bond yields are falling and commodities are rising, the Fed is on its way to falling behind the curve – chaos follows everywhere all at once.

There is also another angle. To pencil in very low bond yields is to ignore politicians who are not going to ignore the risks of what is going on in Sri Lanka happening to them. There is now no mystery as to how one can raise long-absent final demand: you use fiscal policy. It was always that simple, it’s just that we had had decades of enforced ignorance rammed down our throats by ordoliberals. Yes, you also have to control supply chains to control inflation at the same time – but that won’t stop politicians reaching for stimulus as soon as things turn down.

Do you really think that if unemployment, energy, and food all soar, and stocks and housing fall, that politicians will refuse stimulus measures? Yes, the UK government is telling people to cook meals for 30p(!), ride busses all day to keep warm, or to ‘get a job with higher wages’, but this is electoral ricin, and it is rumoured to be considering tax cuts by the summer. Elsewhere in Europe we see energy subsidies, which given supply-side constraints effectively push the burden onto the world’s poorest, creating more Sri Lankas. In short, don’t rely on fiscal policy to be restrained into a downturn.

Meanwhile, nominal pay is rising rapidly, and the worse things get, the more people will demand more of it. Yes, real pay is falling for many – but that is an impetus for more pay rises, and will not stop just because Wall Street says ‘inflation has peakednot when the alternative is homelessness, hunger, and ‘Sri Lanka’. Yesterday, Microsoft announced it was nearly doubling its wage budget to retain staff. Of course, smaller firms that make up the backbone of the US economy are least-well placed to compete with this trend – which further polarizes between hot and not, winners and losers, and those who eat and those who get eaten. If real wages keep falling, political temperatures will keep rising regardless even if bond yields fall.

Also, deglobalisation is happening. As I have repeated regularly, it was never going to be driven by leftist sentiment about the working class vs. the upper class; but as soon as you make it a rightist shift over national security, it can and will.

Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal carried an article about the trend for ”friend-shoring”, flagging that Central America is emerging as a new hotspot for textiles. Why not Latin America next, to help escape the gravity of China’s commodity appetite? Today, US logistics magazine Freight Waves carries an op-ed titled ‘Free trade is dead, welcome to ‘Freedom Trade’’, which sounds like the recent UK suggestion of an economic “network of liberty” with the G7 as its “economic NATO”. Indeed, the US Defence Production Act was recently tweaked to also include Canada, UK, and Australia as “domestic” production in regard to EV batteries/rare earths. Japan is seeing its manufacturers come home, and is subsidising them to do so; so is the UK, post-Brexit – without subsidies. Yes, this means higher costs and higher prices. And yet it is happening.

True, there are still laggards. The CSIS think-tank argues in ‘US Business Leaders Not Ready for the Next US-China Crisis’, that “The bad news is that very few corporations engaged in China have contingency plans or long-term strategies to hedge against the downside risks of growing geopolitical competition,“ and that “corporations need to think about their operating environment the way geostrategists now are.

Indeed, besides a focus on commodities, it is all geostrategy now. You can’t look at your usual market and not at what is going on everywhere else all at once. For example, Turkey is blocking Sweden and Finland’s entry into NATO. Is this a usual attempt to force concessions over the Nordic stance towards Ankara’s bête noire, the PKK, or a genuine geopolitical shift to follow its purchase of Russia’s S-400 anti-aircraft system? Given the pressures all EM are under, and Turkey being a major energy and food importer, as well as reliant on exports to the EU, it is hardly likely to be positive for the struggling TRY, close to its record low of 15.66. Indeed, will soon-to-be-more-weaponized Fed swaplines to help flailing EM be made available to a country going down that geopolitical path?

Everything. Everywhere. All at once. Not your usual market metric going up or down a bit. Even in Australia, where the latest RBA minutes noted, “…upstream price pressures were increasingly being passed on to final consumer prices of many goods, as supply chain pressures persisted and demand remained strong. Members noted it was possible that firms’ price-setting behaviours were undergoing a change from the pre-pandemic period, with businesses becoming more confident that raising prices would not significantly reduce demand or erode their competitive position.”

Then again, the Bank also added:

“Housing prices in Australia could also be more sensitive to rising interest rates than assumed, which would be likely to result in lower household wealth and consumption. At the same time, there was also potential for consumer spending in Australia to be stronger than forecast, given that households in aggregate had not begun to draw down on the savings accumulated during the pandemic and the high household saving rate could normalise more quickly than assumed. Another source of domestic uncertainty related to the behaviour of prices and labour costs at unusually low levels of unemployment, given the limited recent historical experience to draw on.”

In short, they really don’t know what’s going on. Which ironically puts them in a stronger position than those who think they do – by not looking at everything everywhere all at once.

.

end

7. OIL ISSUES//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA

America’s Electric Grid Has A $2 Trillion Problem

Another nightmare for the USA: their powergrid needs updatesof around $2 trillion thorugh to 2050

(Paraskova/OilPrice.com)

TUESDAY, MAY 17, 2022 – 10:52 AM

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

  • The U.S. power grid is strained as-is, with disruption and outages becoming more frequent in many regions.
  • Regulatory ‘nightmare’ makes investments in the grid more complicated.
  • Grid upgrades may cost up to $2 trillion through 2050.

Getting America to reach the goals of zero-carbon electricity generation by 2035 and net-zero economy by 2050 with a surge in electric vehicle transportation and renewable power installations will require massive investments in outdated power transmission lines and building thousands of miles of new lines. The undertaking is huge, and it’s so huge not only because the price tag for making the U.S. grid capable of handling a net-zero economy is estimated at a couple of trillion dollars.    Permitting, regulation and uncertainty over who is and should be in charge of the massive transformation of the power grid are also major hurdles to booming renewable power generation and massive adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). 

The U.S. power grid is strained as-is, with disruption and outages becoming more frequent in many regions where local grid operators struggle to keep the lights on in case of extreme winter weather or heat. Those events would only become more frequent with climate change, such as the current early heat wave in Texas, which is testing ERCOT’s ability to withstand a surge in power demand. 

In recent days, grid operators from a growing number of states started warning about electricity shortages as grids cannot cope with the imbalance between demand and supply heading into summer. California warned last week that it would need to produce more electricity than it is currently producing to avoid blackouts. The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), the nonprofit charged with operating the power grid in 15 U.S. states and Manitoba, issued a warning about outages during the summer.

If grids are warning they may not be able to cope with a surge in power demand now, what would they do if renewables were to become the dominant source of electricity generation (provided that the Biden Administration’s goals of a carbon-free grid by 2035 and 50 percent of all new vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 be zero-emission vehicles are met)?  

For sure, the grid needs huge amounts of investments, researchers and analysts say. 

For example, in a “high electrification” or E+ scenario, with aggressively electrifying buildings and transportation so that 100 percent of cars are electric by 2050, America would need $360 billion invested in transmission through 2030 and $2.4 trillion by 2050, the Princeton University said in a report at the end of 2020. 

Yet, it’s not only a matter of money, but many analysts and industry consultants also say. That’s because the U.S. currently lacks a national strategy that clearly defines the roles of policymakers, states, federal agencies, grid operators, and utilities in preparing the transmission system on a national level to handle a surge in renewable power generation, demand from EV charging, and the “electrify everything” drive at home. 

“We really don’t have anyone in charge,” Rob Gramlich, president of Washington D.C.-based energy consulting firm, Grid Strategies LLC, told Reuters for a special report on the hurdles the U.S. grid faces.

“The politics are a freakin’ nightmare,” Alison Silverstein, an independent industry consultant and former senior adviser to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), told Reuters’ Tim McLaughlin. 

The regulatory ‘nightmare’ makes investments in the grid more complicated, which could delay much-needed transmission infrastructure updates and thus, push further the timeline of the clean energy goals, analysts say.

“The majority of the nation’s grid is aging, with some components over a century old — far past their 50-year life expectancy — and others, including 70% of T&D lines, are well into the second half of their lifespans,” the American Society of Civil Engineers said in a report last year. 

Expanding the grid capacity by 2-5 times from current levels and transmission investments totaling up to $2.4 trillion presents “multiple technical, economic, and public policy challenges,” Jonathan M. Moch, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, and Henry Lee, Director, Environment and Natural Resources Program at The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs of Harvard Kennedy School, wrote in a policy brief in February 2022. 

“First, there is a lack of coordination between regional and national transmission planning. The organizations responsible for regional transmission planning are often legally constrained from prioritizing the reduction of carbon emissions. Furthermore, construction of new transmission requires an extensive siting and permitting process that can stretch for over a decade and may put the goal of a carbon-free electric grid by 2035 out of reach,” Moch and Lee wrote. 

According to consultants Brattle Group, interregional planning processes are ineffective. In a presentation prepared for the ‘Building a Better Grid Initiative’ of the Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity, Brattle said in March that “essentially no major interregional transmission projects have been planned and built in the last decade.”

U.S. climate envoy John Kerry also admitted as much at the CERAWeek conference in Houston in March:

“We can send a rover to Mars, but we can’t send an electron to California from New York.”  

END

Gas Prices Hit $4 A Gallon In Every State For First Time 

TUESDAY, MAY 17, 2022 – 02:45 PM

Gas prices at the pump hit $4 a gallon in every state for the first time Monday, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). This is mainly due to languishing refinery capacity across the US, dwindling fuel stockpiles, and robust demand for gas ahead of the summer driving season. 

Kansas, Oklahoma, and Georgia — the last three holdouts — saw prices for regular gas surpass the $4 a gallon mark last night. The national average for a gallon of gasoline is $4.523, another record high. The increase comes as the cost of crude oil now tops $114 a barrel. 

In a note to clients on Monday, Goldman Sachs’ commodity analyst Neil Mehta outlined that rising fuel prices were due to a rash of refinery retirements, reduced Russian energy exports, recovering jet fuel demand, and tight global inventories for products, particularly diesel, have supported higher prices at the pump. 

Mehta indicated that US fuel product inventories are 10% below a five-year average and refining utilization rates are below normal. 

US refining utilization struggles to increase as the driving season nears.  

This means tight supplies and rising demand will only push pump prices higher. Wholesale gasoline prices signal that $5 a gallon on a national level is imminent. 

Despite record-high gasoline prices, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, Patrick De Haan, said weekly gasoline demand increased by 3% in the past week and was up 1.8% compared to the four-week average. 

“Americans clearly aren’t being too discouraged by high gas prices,” De Haan tweeted on Sunday.

Demand destruction has yet to materialize as demand remains above a 20-year average. People still have to drive to work… 

Meanwhile, President Biden’s cunning SPR release fails to lower crude prices. SPR levels are dangerously low, at levels not seen since 1987. 

All indications point to higher fuel prices at the pump this summer. The most important question is when does demand destruction emerge. So far, not yet.

END

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA

SRI LANKA

Sri Lanka Has Only 1 Day Of Petrol Stocks Left, Says New Prime Minister

TUESDAY, MAY 17, 2022 – 12:53 PM

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Sri Lanka has only enough petrol for one day and urgently needs $75 million in foreign exchange to pay for essential imports within the next couple of days, the country’s new prime minister said on Monday.

“At the moment, we only have petrol stocks for a single day,” Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said in a televised address.

Wickremesinghe said that three shipments of crude oil and furnace oil “have been anchored within the maritime zone of Sri Lanka” because the government was unable to raise dollars to pay for them.

“At present, the central bank, local and private banks, and foreign banks functioning in Sri Lanka are all facing a dollar shortage. As [the public] is already aware, we possess a very low amount of U.S. dollars,” he said.

While shipments of diesel and petrol using the Indian credit line may provide relief in the coming days, Wickremesinghe warned that Sri Lanka could see power outages lasting up to 15 hours a day.

The country also faces a severe shortage of medicines and surgical equipment, particularly heart disease medication and the anti-rabies vaccine. Sri Lanka currently owes 34 billion Sri Lankan rupees ($94 million) to pharmaceutical suppliers.

Wickremesinghe said the central bank will have to print money to pay the wages of state-sector employees, though he cautioned that doing so would cause the currency to depreciate.

He also proposed privatizing the Sri Lankan Airlines.

“The next couple of months will be the most difficult ones of our lives. We must prepare ourselves to make some sacrifices and face the challenges of this period,” he remarked.

Men on a scooter ride past the burnt buses near Sri Lanka’s former prime minister Mahinda Rajapaksa’s official residence, a day after they were torched by protesters in Colombo on May 10, 2022. (Ishara S. Kodikara/AFP via Getty Images)

Wickremesinghe was appointed prime minister on May 12 after violent protests led to the resignation of Mahinda Rajapaksa, the brother of sitting President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

At least nine people died and 219 others were injured after ruling-party supporters attacked anti-government protesters on May 9. Armed troops are now authorized to shoot anyone seen looting public property or causing damage.

A police spokesperson said Sunday that 230 people were arrested for violating curfew, attacking the public, and causing damage. Of those, 68 people have been remanded in custody.

China’s Role in Sri Lanka’s Economic Crisis

Sri Lanka is on the verge of bankruptcy, with its foreign exchange reserves plummeting by 70 percent over the past two years. The government said on April 12 that it was suspending debt repayments.

Sri Lanka is a key part of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which other countries have criticized as a “debt trap” for smaller nations. Several of its infrastructure projects funded by foreign investments have failed to bring revenue, plunging the country into debt.

In December 2017, the Sri Lankan government leased the entire Hambantota Port to China for 99 years to convert its owed loans of $1.4 billion into equity. The move has led to thousands of protesters rallying against the deal.

Sri Lankan MP Harsha de Silva said Sunday that the government had no choice but to “figure out a way to come out of the debt” accumulated from the infrastructural projects.

“We can’t undo the projects now. What we can do now is to figure out a way to come out of the debt. We have to restructure it, and we have to talk to the Chinese and come to a solution,” Silva was quoted as saying by India Today.

About 10 percent of Sri Lanka’s $51 billion external debt is owed to China. Sri Lanka had requested China to help restructure its debt obligations and $2.5 billion in financial support. In May, the Sri Lankan government said Beijing extended a total aid package of 500 million yuan ($76 million).

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0545 UP 0.0162 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL MGREEN 

USA/ YEN 129.27   UP 0.332 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.24986 UP   0.0164

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 19.95 POINTS UP 0.65%

 Hang Sang CLOSED  UP 652/31 PTS OR 3.27%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.33%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 652 PTS OR 3.27%   

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 19.95 PTS UP 0.65% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0 0.33% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  UP 112.70 OR 0.42%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1834.60

silver:$21.89

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 103.33  DOWN 88  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.16%  UP 11  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.241% UP 0    AND 1/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.11%// UP 12   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 2.97  UP 13   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.05.%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0533  UP 0.0094    or 94 basis points

USA/Japan: 129.33 UP .379  OR YEN DOWN  38  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2465 UP 0.01395 OR 140  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP .0009 OR 9 BASIS pts up to 1.2849

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP 6.7377  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.7460

TURKISH LIRA:  15.80  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.241

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 8  IN basis points from MONDAY at  2.935% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.151 UP 8 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 103.47 DOWN 74   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 51.72 PTS OR 0.69%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 220.60  POINTS OR 1.58%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 75.31PTS OR 1.19% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED  UP 120.80 OR 1.45%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 239.07 PTS OR  0.99%

WTI Oil price 114.79   12: EST

Brent Oil:  115.10   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE FALLS TO:  63.59   DOWN 1/5       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.05

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0547 UP   .0108   OR UP 108 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2485 UP .0159  or  160 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 129.37 UP 0.425//YEN DOWN 43 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2819 DOWN .0031 (CDN dollar UP 31 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 112.39

Brent OIL:  111.74

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.973 UP 9 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.168  UP 8  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 15.88

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA///USA/ ROUBLE:  63.40 UP  0 AND 1/5 ROUBLES (ROUBLE DOWN 1/5 ROUBLES/USA

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 431.17 PTS OR 1.34%

NASDAQ 100 UP 320.52 PTS OR 2.62%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 26.20 DOWN 1.27 PTS (4.62%)

GLD: 169.33 DOWN 1. 07 PTS OR 0.63%

SLV/ 19.93 DOWN 01 PTS OR 0.05%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks Surge, Bonds Purge As FedSpeak Offers Nothing New

TUESDAY, MAY 17, 2022 – 04:01 PM

A beat for retail sales and industrial production (both in nominal dollars, don’t forget) but a gut-wrenching miss for homebuilder sentiment (not in nominally inflated dollars) set the scene for another hyperactive day in the markets but it was FedSpeak that dominated as various talking heads “spoke much but said little”:

0845ET BULLARD: MUST MONITOR IMPACT OF GLOBAL QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING, US WILL BE RESERVE CURRENCY ‘FOR A LONG TIME TO COME’

1300ET KASHKARI: LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT CENTRAL BANKS CAN LOWER DEMAND, DON’T KNOW YET IF FED ACTION WILL TRIGGER RECESSION

1400ET POWELLWON’T HESITATE TO RAISE RATES ABOVE NEUTRAL IF NEEDED, THERE COULD BE SOME PAIN INVOLVED

They said nothing new at all, as @knowledge_vital succinctly noted:

“It seems like the Fed is happy with the present state of market expectations, and we struggle to really find anything that incremental in [Powell’s] remarks… investors need to stop looking for monetary ghosts… and reacting to what are simply reiterations.”

Equity markets were an virtuous combination of low liquidity, hedge positioning unwinds, and OpEx pinning which sparked wild swings once again, but today it was an ‘up-day’ with Small Caps and Nasdaq the huge winners…

Interestingly, stocks puked as Powell began his interview and ramped back up the moment he finished…

The Dow underperformed due to the bloodbath in WMT (worst day since 1987)…

Despite a notable surge today, 10Y Yields remain below 3.00% as it was the short-end of the curve that underperformed (3Y +14bps, 30Y +6bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve notably flattened today amid all the FedSpeak, signaling fears of a policy error coming back (3s30s was down 10bps from its intraday highs)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar tumbled back to pre-FOMC levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin once again traded around $30k, ending modestly higher on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Wholesale Gasoline prices continue to rise and signal $5 national avg gas price is imminent…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI slipped lower today, hovering at $112.50 ahead of tonight’s API data…

But, for the first time since May 2020, front-month WTI settled above front-month Brent…

Source: Bloomberg

NOTE that this is July Brent vs June WTI so is a little misleading.

Gold pumped and dumped to end the day unchanged…

Finally, they managed buying calls at highs and have now loaded up on puts.

Source: TheMarketEar

Will the scared retail trader will make a home run on those “fresh” puts?

END

I) / EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING/

Stocks, Bonds, & Bitcoin Puke As Powell Speaks

TUESDAY, MAY 17, 2022 – 02:29 PM

Fed Chair Powell reiterated a number of his previous comments, offering little for the marginal bull or bear:

But here are some of the highlights (Source: Bloomberg)

But here are some of the highlights (Source: Bloomberg)

  • POWELL: WON’T HESITATE TO RAISE RATES ABOVE NEUTRAL IF NEEDED
  • POWELL: WAR IN UKRAINE LOOKS LONGER-LASTING THAN FIRST EXPECTED
  • POWELL: IT’S GOING TO BE CHALLENGING TASK TO TAME INFLATION
  • POWELL: THERE COULD BE SOME PAIN INVOLVED

But, it appears traders (or algos) were spooked by some of his comments… which is odd since he said absolutely nothing new…

Bond yields spiked (most notably at the short-end)…

And Bitcoin dived back below $30k

Given the reaction – was the hope-filled market oncxe again pricing in anticipation that Powell will fold sooner rather than later.

II)USA data

This is why the USA dollar fell today.

(zerohedge)

US Retail Sales Growth Slows In April

TUESDAY, MAY 17, 2022 – 08:37 AM

Amid a record surge in revolving consumer credit (i.e. credit card spending), and soaring inflation, analysts expected another monthly rise in retail sales (which is reported in nominal dollars) and they were right but the headline print modestly disappointed (+0.9% MoM vs +1.0% MoM exp) but that was offset by a huge upward revision in March data from +0.5% MoM to +1.4% MoM….

Source: Bloomberg

Ex-Autos, retail sales bounced more than expected MoM (with a huge upward revision for March from +1.1% to +2.1% MoM), reaccelerating the YoY gains…

MoM gains were led by motor vehicles…

The Control Group – which is used to filter into the GDP calculation rose 1.0% MoM in April (better than the +0.7% MoM expected) and March was revised dramatically higher from a drop of 0.1% MoM to a 1.1% MoM rise.

How long can Americans maintain this level of living beyond their means?

Those credit card bills are gonna hit soon and the interest rates on those balances are anything but low.

end

to be expected!

Home builders index drops to 69 in May from 77 and hits nearly 2-year low

May 17, 2022 at 10:13 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

Higher mortgage rates, soaring building costs and rising home prices drove the NAHB Home Builders Index to a nearly two-year low of 69 in May from 77 in the prior month, the National Association of Home Builders said Tuesday. The NAHB/Wells Fargo index was forecast to total 75. The big drop in the index points to tougher times for the housing market in the months ahead.

US Industrial Production Hits New Record High In April

TUESDAY, MAY 17, 2022 – 09:20 AM

US Industrial production was expected to rise for the 4th straight month in April and it did, jumping significantly more than expected (+1.1% MoM vs +0.5% MoM). That is the biggest monthly jump since October…

Source: Bloomberg

US Industrial production overall has reached a new record high…

Source: Bloomberg

And Capacity Utilization reached its highest since Dec 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

Manufacturing also surprised to the upside with a 0.8% MoM rise…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, are the Dow INDUSTRIALS catching down to actual INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION?

Source: Bloomberg

Sadly for the bulls, good (economic) news remains bad news for stocks as it offers The Fed no ‘outs’.

end

Homebuilder Sentiment Slumps In May Amid “Growing Challenges” In Housing Market

TUESDAY, MAY 17, 2022 – 10:06 AM

The NAHB survey of homebuilder sentiment fell for the 5th straight month in May to its lowest since June 2020… but has a long way to go to catch down to homebuyer sentiment…

Source: Bloomberg

All 3 of the underlying indices tumbled:

  • Measure of present single family sales falls to 78
  • Future single family sales gauge fell to 63 vs 73
  • Prospective buyers traffic measure fell to 52 vs 61

“The housing market is facing growing challenges,” Robert Dietz, chief economist at the NAHB, said in a statement.

“Building material costs are up 19% from a year ago, in less than three months mortgage rates have surged to a 12-year high and based on current affordability conditions, less than 50% of new and existing home sales are affordable for a typical family. Entry-level and first-time home buyers are especially bearing the brunt of this rapid rise in mortgage rates.”

By region, builder sentiment declined in all regions except the Northeast.

end

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

We knew that this was going to happen sooner or later to highly vaccinated cities:  New York raises Covid alert to “high” and now advise face masks

(zerohedge)

New York City Raises Covid Alert Level To “High”, Advises Face Masks

TUESDAY, MAY 17, 2022 – 11:49 AM

Here we go again.

With even mentally unstable people who demand to be told by the government on a daily if not hourly basis what to do with their lives having finally moved on from the sheer lunacy that was the dark period of government-mandated lockdowns and covid–linked suspensions, on Tuesday New York City again raised its Covid-19 alert level to high amid increasing pressure on the health care system.

The city upped the warning from medium after signaling yesterday that the change could be imminent. Guidance during a high alert level encourages New Yorkers to wear a face mask in all public indoor settings and crowded outdoor settings, although Mayor Eric Adams said Monday that he was not at the point of reinstating a mask requirement, perhaps because countless studies have now shown beyond a reasonable doubt that masks provide zero benefits to containing the spread of covid.

As Bloomberg reports, alert levels take into account cases, hospital admissions and the percentage of inpatient beds that are occupied by Covid-19 patients. Early in May, the city moved to a medium alert from low after surpassing 200 new cases per 100,000 people over a seven-day period. As of May 13, new cases were at 292. A high alert level is triggered when new hospital admissions over seven days surpass 10 per 100,000 and the percentage of staffed inpatient beds occupied by Covid patients is greater than 10%, according to guidance from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

New admissions were at 9.8 per 100,000 and increasing as of May 13, while 4.14% of inpatients beds were occupied by Covid patients.

City Health Commissioner Ashwin Vasan said he expects the current wave’s peak won’t last long if residents follow guidance.

We would take the other side of that bet, with midterm elections coming up and with the Democratic establishment desperate to do everything to maintain the status quo, that means lots and lots of mail in ballots coming up, and only another “spike” – real or imaginary – in covid cases will be required.

end

iiia) USA inflation// commodity//SHIPPING commentaries//LOG JAMS//

end

IIIB) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

White House is in a near deal to reopen Abbot baby formula plant and to ease restrictions on importing rules to allow for supplies from oversea

(zerohedge)

White House ‘Near Deal’ To Reopen Abbott Baby Formula Plant, Allow Imports

MONDAY, MAY 16, 2022 – 04:45 PM

The Biden administration on Monday is expected to announce an agreement which would reopen the largest domestic baby formula plant in addition to easing import rules to allow for supplies from overseas, according to NBC San Diego.

According to the White House National Economic Council director Brian Deese, a consent decree between Abbott and the FDA is “forthcoming,” while the agency will take steps on imports to address urgent supply constraints.

The administration has been under fire over the last week for doing nothing to ease the shortage of formula due to a malfunctioning drying machine that contaminated several batches, killing two children and injuring two more.

The contamination led to a February recall by Abbott, which shuttered the company’s Michigan plan at perhaps the worst possible time amid ongoing supply chain disruptions among other manufacturers.

Abbott is one of four major producers that account for roughly 90% of baby formula in the US.

Over the weekend, the White House offered formula manufacturers and retailers transportation and logistics support, and working with all major formula producers to boost production, including reaching out to their suppliers to encourage them to prioritize production and delivery of formula ingredients. –NBC

According to Deese, the administration “made clear to all of them that federal resources, including transportation and logistics resources, are available and on call and we are prepared to move assets in coordination with them as and when we identify need.”

The FDA has warned parents not to try and make their own baby formula – and to instead call their doctor or seek charities with supplies of milk.

During its six-week investigation, the FDA published a list of problems in March, including issues with sanitary standards and safety, as well as a history of bacterial contamination in several areas of the plant.

Abbott, however, said that its products have not been directly linked to the bacterial infections in children, as samples found at the plant did not match the strains collected from the babies. The company has repeatedly said it’s ready to continue manufacturing, however the FDA has not allowed them to do so.

END.

Musk says Twitter deal cannot move forward until clarity on fake BOT accounts

(zerohedge)

Musk Says Twitter “Deal Cannot Move Forward” Until Bot Clarity 

TUESDAY, MAY 17, 2022 – 06:55 AM

Billionaire Elon Musk tweeted early Tuesday morning that he won’t proceed with his $44 billion purchase of Twitter until the social media platform can prove bots are less than 5% of all users, yet another twist. 

Twitter estimated in a recent SEC filing that fewer than 5% of monetizable daily active users (or mDAUs) in the first quarter were bots. Musk didn’t believe that figure and said, “Twitter’s CEO publicly refused to show proof of <5%.” 

Musk estimates about “20% fake/spam accounts, while 4 times what Twitter claims, could be *much* higher.” 

“My offer was based on Twitter’s SEC filings being accurate,” Musk tweeted. adding, “this deal cannot move forward until he does.”

Twitter shares fell 2.5% premarket on Tuesday. Shares have tumbled into a bear market since the start of May as traders cast doubts on the deal. 

Musk’s tweet comes after Twitter chief Parag Agrawal posted a lengthy thread about the company’s bot methodology. Musk replied with a poop emoji, followed by a tweet that asked: “So how do advertisers know what they’re getting for their money?”

Meanwhile, Twitter filed a preliminary proxy statement with the SEC that said it’s “committed to completing the transaction on the agreed price [$54.20 per share in cash] and terms as promptly as practicable.”

At yesterday’s “All In” summit, Musk said that a viable deal for Twitter is “not out of the question,” but at a lower price.

Maybe Trump was right?

The fate of Elon Musk’s Twitter deal – or at least the price he’ll end up paying – may hinge on just how many ‘bot’ accounts are active on the social media platform.

-END

It looks like it is going to be most firms will have trouble due to soaring inflation!

(zerohedge)

Walmart Tumbles After Missing Earnings, Slashing Guidance On Soaring Inflation

TUESDAY, MAY 17, 2022 – 09:00 AM

The post-covid tailwind for big box retailers is officially dead and buried and the hangover is officially here.

After reporting quarter after quarter of blowout earnings in the post-covid world, moments ago the largest US non-online retailer, WalMart saw its stock plunge after reporting an ugly quarter, one in which it missed earnings despite handily beating on the top line, and more importantly, cut EPS guidance after warning that inflation is eating into its profit margins.

First, this is what WalMart reported for Q1:

  • Revenue $141.57 billion, +2.4% y/y, beating the estimate $139.09 billion
  • Adjusted EPS $1.30, down 23.7% vs. $1.69 y/y, and missing the estimate $1.48
  • Total U.S. comparable sales ex-gas +4%, beating estimate +2.26% (2-year same store sales stack +9%, estimate +7.66%)
    • Walmart-only U.S. stores comparable sales ex-gas +3%, beating estimate +2.04%
    • Sam’s Club U.S. comparable sales ex- gas +10.2%, beating estimate +5.02%
  • Walmart-only U.S. comparable ticket +3%, beating estimate +1.48% (2 estimates)
  • Change in U.S. E-Commerce sales +1%, missing estimate +1.84%
  • Adjusted operating income in constant currency $792 million, missing estimate $917.7 million

A mixed picture but hardly catastrophic and largely in line with expectations: the Bentonville, AR based company, which has championed “everyday low prices,” is suddenly finding it very difficult to stick to its motto while vying for more customers as inflation prompts shoppers to look harder for bargains. But soaring costs for merchandise, transportation and labor are clearly eating into the company’s profitability, and nowhere was that more evident than in the company’s guidance.

The retailer now sees earnings per share falling by about 1% this year, compared with a prior view of mid-single-digit gains, Walmart said in an unexpected guidance cut taking place so early on in the year.  For the current quarter, Walmart said it now expects earnings to be “flat to up slightly” compared with a prior view of a low- to mid-single-digit increase.

The culprit behind the unexpected guidance cut? Inflation, of course: “US inflation levels, particularly in food and fuel, created more pressure on margin mix and operating costs than we expected,” Walmart Chief Executive Officer Doug McMillon said in the statement. “We’re adjusting and will balance the needs of our customers for value with the need to deliver profit growth for our future.”

WMT stock plunged as much as 7% in early trading New York time. Walmart had gained 2.4% so far this year through Monday, bucking a selloff of US stocks.

As Bloomberg notes, the disappointing performance underscores the pressure on US consumers as soaring prices send sentiment to the lowest in a decade. Walmart and other retailers are also contending with the end of stimmies after benefiting in early 2021 from an injection of federal spending to help households weather the coronavirus pandemic.

The retailer is also trying to develop businesses in digital advertising, financial services and health care, and it’s investing heavily in online sales. However, the process is not going quite as hot as desired, and E-commerce grew only 1% in the quarter. The online business got a substantial boost during pandemic lockdowns, but demand has been slowing as shoppers venture back into stores.

The full Q1 earnings presentation is below (pdf link)

iv)swamp stories

Quite a story:  Allianz unit that was suppose to hedge  against a downfall in stocks did not hedge. …charged criminally over failure to do so

(zerohedge) 

Allianz Unit Criminally Charged, Will Pay Billions Over $7 Billion Hedge Fund Blow Up; CIO Arrested

TUESDAY, MAY 17, 2022 – 01:22 PM

The last time we checked in on the remarkable story of Allianz’ imploded hedge funds in mid-February, we learned that the insurance giant would take a €3.7 billion charge against the event which was not supposed to happen. That’s because the hedge funds offered by the AGI unit were created to provide protection against a market crash, like the one that took place in 2020… and which liquidated the funds at the end of March 2020 after massive losses, with Allianz forced to wind down the rest.

Fast forward to today when we learn that the Allianz unit behind the hedge fund collapse has agreed to plead guilty to fraud in the implosion of its “hedge” funds (they didn’t hedge anything) that lost $7 billion; with Allianz also agreeing to be banned from providing financial advice for 10 years, while former Allianz employees are banned from the industry and the DOJ has filed criminal charges.

As part of the agreement by Allianz Global Investors US – the New York investment “adviser” owned by Allianz SE – GregTournant, the former chief investment officer and co-lead portfolio manager of the Structured Alpha Fundswas taken into custody Tuesday and charged separately for his role in the alleged scheme to defraud investors, Manhattan U.S. Attorney Damian Williams said in a statement.

The agreement, under which AGI will also plead guilty to a single count of securities fraud, calls for the firm to forfeit $463 million and pay $3.2 billion in restitution to victims of the fraud as well as a $2.3 billion penalty. It will get a credit for $1.9 billion that has already been paid to victims. In addition, AGI will pay a civil penalty under an anticipated settlement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Tournant, the former CIO and co-lead portfolio manager of the Structured Alpha Funds, and others overstated the level of independent oversight that AGI was providing, misrepresented hedging and other risk mitigation strategies and altered documents to hide the riskiness of the funds, according to prosecutors.

“As a result of this scheme to defraud, investors’ funds were exposed to higher risk than promised, and investors were deprived of information about the true risks to which their investments were exposed,” according to the Tournant’s indictment.

As we reported previously Allianz had set aside billions to resolve the lawsuits and government probes tied to the funds. The charges are a “fair estimate” of the exposure, the company said earlier this month. All charges announced Tuesday are covered by the provisions, an Allianz spokesman said.

According to Bloomberg, AGI is due to make the forfeiture payment on Wednesday and will make the restitution payments within a week into an escrow account that will be distributed to victims.

“No one at AGI US or Allianz was verifying that Tournant and his colleagues were actually adhering to the investment strategies promised to investors,” according to Tournant’s indictment. “For example, no risk or compliance personnel at AGI US verified, attempted to verify, or were responsible for verifying that Tournant and his colleagues were purchasing hedging positions within the range that was represented to investors, or adhering to other agreed upon risk mitigation strategies, including those specifically promised to the funds’ largest investor.”

Tournant misled investors that Allianz was “one of the largest and most conservative insurance companies in the world” and was monitoring every position that he took as a “master cop,” according to the court filing. None of that actually happened, and the moments markets tumbled, the hedge fund blew up.

Here’s the funny part: as we noted in February, the Structured Alpha hedge funds were designed to provide protection against a market crash yet blew up during the tumultuous early days of the pandemic when markets crashed. They were not hedging anything! Following a controversial options strategy, the Florida-based funds lost between 49% and 97% of their value during the first quarter of 2020. Investors said they lost billions of dollars. Allianz liquidated two of the vehicles in March 2020 and has been unwinding the others.

There’s a reason for that – starting in late 2015, the “hedge funds” became just “funds” as that’s when Tournant grew frustrated with the cost of hedging, which was eating into returns, and the fund “abandoned the promised hedging strategy and instead began to purchase cheaper hedges that were further out of the money, and therefore less protective in the event of a market crash,” according to the indictment. That change was not disclosed to investors, prosecutors allege.

If fake hedging isn’t enough, the indictment also claims that the defendants reduced losses under a market crash scenario in one risk report sent to investors from negative 42.1505489755747% to negative 4.1505489755747% — by simply dropping the single digit 2!

It gets worse: prosecutors also said that Tournant then tried to obstruct a government probe.

“In or about the summer of 2020, after the onset of the pandemic and in order to avoid detection of the fraudulent scheme, Gregoire Tournant, the defendant, obstructed an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the ‘SEC’) into the circumstances that led to the losses in March 2020. Among other things, Tournant repeatedly directed Stephen Bond-Nelson, a portfolio manager for the funds, to lie to the SEC” and spoke to him at a vacant construction site, like a bunch of mafia gangsters.

Bottom line: it appears that with Archegos three weeks ago, and now this, regulators are finally starting to crack down on white collar crime. Of course, since everyone on Wall Street is guilty of something (look no further than the king of the vampire squid Lloyd Blankfein who was bounced to avoid hard time as part of the bank’s criminal relations with Malaysia’s 1MDB), it remains to be seen just how high up the corner suite this latest crackdown goes.

For those who have the time, the whole SEC complaint is worth a read.

The King Report (including swamp stories)

The King Report May 17, 2022 Issue 6761Independent View of the News
Bernanke says the Fed’s slow response to inflation ‘was a mistake’ (Pot bashing the kettle!)
One of the reasons was that they wanted not to shock the market,”…
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/16/bernanke-says-the-feds-slow-response-to-inflation-was-a-mistake.html
 
ESMs rallied during early Asian trading on Monday.  They rolled over after wheat prices surged, due to India’s export restriction of grain.  ESMs then tumbled after China reported dismal April economic data.Retail Sales -11.1% m/m; -6.1% exp.Industrial Production -2.9% m/m; +0.4% exp.Surveyed Jobless Rate 6.1%; 6% exp.Residential Property Sales -32.2% y/y
  Goldman Sachs Senior Chairman Lloyd Blankfein urged companies and consumers to gird for a US recession, saying it’s a “very, very high risk” https://t.co/ZlG7iJ8Zc3
 
@charliebilello: In Jan 2021, the 30-yr mortgage rate was 2.65% and average new home price in the US was $401,700. Today the 30-yr mortgage rate is 5.30% and average new home price is $523,900.
Assuming a 20% down payment, that’s an 80% increase in the monthly payment (from $1,294 to $2,327).
Joe Biden’s Economic Advisor Said There’s “Nothing Better Than” The Chinese Communist Party’s Economic System.
    …“the [Department of Justice] would say that well we may start an investigation which will take three years. Securities and Exchange Commission may take two years, but in China, they start visiting whoever spread the rumors and start knocking on doors.”
    Chinese officials “would go into some of these major fund managers, say, you know what, for the sake of the country, don’t sell. Let’s do what’s right for the good of the country. Don’t sell, and then they tell all of these other publicly traded companies, stop trading for a while, we’re going to do whatever we want.”…
    The Chinese Communist Party, explained Ng, can “control the media to not get out of control” and stop them from “spreading rumors that would hurt the economy” along with telling “the accounting firms” and “banking regulators” to “stop doing this nonsense.” “We can’t do anything since the United States is such a free country,” he added…
https://thenationalpulse.com/2022/05/12/biden-advisor-claimed-nothing-better-than-ccp-economy/
 
87% of American voters want corporations out of politics, poll shows
The survey by the Trafalgar Group (Very accurate the past few elections) found that 87.1% of likely voters from all political affiliations said they were either very or somewhat likely “to stop using a product or service of a company that openly advocates for a political agenda” that contradicts their beliefs
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/may/16/87-american-voters-want-corporations-out-politics-/
 
Disney’s favorability rating has cratered from 77% to 33% since last year
https://notthebee.com/article/dang-disneys-favorability-rating-has-cratered-from-77-to-33-since-last-year
 
Elon Musk responds to Twitter CEO’s… thread on spam (actually fake accounts) with poop emoji
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-twitter-ceo-poop-emoji-173348071.html
 
@zerohedge: Twitter’s choice: admit Musk is right, it has a huge fake userbase, opening up management to countless shareholder lawsuits, or kill the deal and be sued for shareholder value destruction.
 
@RNCResearch: Biden Surgeon General Vivek Murthy to parents desperately searching for baby formula: “Check with your doctor’s office to see if they have samples.”
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1526283921993891842
 
@RNCResearch: Karine Jean-Pierre can’t point to a single meeting, briefing, or phone call on the baby formula shortage that Biden has participated in  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1526287031399219201
 
Why US Parents Are Choosing European Baby Formula    March 12, 2021
The European commission does have additional regulations on formula that the FDA does not,”… the EU bans certain added sugars, like corn syrup… it requires that at least 30% of the carbohydrates come from lactose… a formula with lactose as the main sugar is preferable for most babies
     The most notable differences involve iron and the omega-3 fatty acid DHA. Many formulas in the US contain more iron than their European counterparts do; the American Academy of Pediatrics recommends a higher iron level to prevent iron deficiency, which can have lasting neurodevelopmental effects. By contrast, the EU recently began requiring DHA in much higher levels than are found in most formulas available in the US (the FDA does not require DHA at all, but most US formulas have it)…
    In the US, all milk-based formulas… take away the milk fat and then add in plant-based fats
    For caregivers who want formulas made from organic milk from grass-fed cows, European formulas previously were the only option…  https://www.nytimes.com/wirecutter/blog/us-parents-european-baby-formula/
 
Baby formula factory Abbott and FDA reach agreement to restart production
The plant did not take responsibility for the infants’ sickness
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/health/baby-formula-factory-abbott-and-fda-reach-agreement-restart-production
 
Top Biden Official Claims Administration Knew About Baby Formula Shortage Last Year
HHS Sec. Xavier Becerra: “FDA has kept me apprised of this from LAST YEAR…”
https://www.dailywire.com/news/top-biden-official-claims-administration-knew-about-baby-formula-shortage-last-year
 
Russia’s Vladimir Putin ‘very ill’ with blood cancer: secret recording (of oligarch close to Putin)
https://nypost.com/2022/05/14/russias-vladimir-putin-ill-with-blood-cancer-secret-recording/
 
@Peter_Atwater: When… historians write about the past 40-year investment cycle… many will conclude that much of private equity was nothing more than a very leveraged play on falling interest rates.
 
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve drops to lowest level since 1987 http://reut.rs/3FRrWQ3
 
Today – Monday’s action is what we thought would occur: The usual suspects would eagerly buy stuff for the expected Monday rally; but professional traders would exit late in the session because the rebound was about 3 sessions old.  The demonstrative weakness in the trading sardines (techs & Fangs) while the general stock market rallied was an important negative omen for the stock market.
 
Six Fed officials, including Powell, speak.  The political pressure is increasing on the Fed to do something substantive to arrest inflation.  Recent history shows that Fed officials believe that verbal intervention is the best way to address problems.  Musk says he might seek a lower price for Twitter.
 
ESMs are +11.75 and USMs are -13/32 at 20:30 ET.  Gold is +12.60; energy commodities are down a tad.
 
Expected economic data: April Retail Sales 1.0% m/m, Ex-Auto 0.4%, Ex-Auto & Gas 0.7%; April Industrial Production 0.5% m/m, Mfg Production 0.5%, Capacity Utilization 78.5%; May NAHB Housing Market Index 75; St. Louis Fed Pres Bullard 8 ET, Phil Fed Pres Harker 9:15 ET, Min Fed Pres Kashkari 12:30 ET, Fed CEO Powell at WSJ live event 14:00 ET, Cleveland Fed Pres Mester 14:30 ET; Chicago Fed Pres Evans 18:45 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4325; 100-day MA: 4274; 150-day MA: 4489; 200-day MA: 4476
DJIA 50-day MA: 33,859; 100-day MA: 34,486; 150-day MA: 34,847; 200-day MA: 34,859
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 5016.24 triggers a buy signal
HourlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4431.82 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4529.25 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3954.90 triggers a buy signal
 
WSJ Editorial Board: Massacre as Usual in Chicago
Mayor Lightfoot presides over a routine weekend shooting spree.
     The shooting in Buffalo on Saturday has horrified Americans, but it was massacre as usual in Chicago this weekend and few outside the Windy City noticedAt least 33 people were shot, five fatally, according to police. Five of the victims were in the 1st police district, which covers the downtown Loop and Near South Side. The city’s daily mayhem isn’t limited to high-crime neighborhoods but has spread to busy commercial areas. Shootings in the 1st district are up 60% over last year
    The cops know they lack political support to do their dangerous jobs and have responded by resigning and retiring en masse. Chicago now has 1,343 fewer sworn officers than it did in May 2020. Get ready for more bloody weekends this summer…
https://www.wsj.com/articles/massacre-as-usual-in-chicago-shootings-crime-lori-lightfoot-11652736495
 
@EpochTimes: DOJ has a track record of not prosecuting left-wing violence,” Johnson said. @SenRonJohnson sent a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland asking why an attack on a Pro-life center in Wisconsin is not being investigated as Domestic Terrorism.
 
Conflict Of Interest? Obama-Appointed Russiagate Judge Married to Lisa Page’s Lawyer, Knew Sussmann – In additional to having been “professional acquaintances” with the defendant, US District Judge Christopher “Casey” Cooper, an Obama appointee (who was on Obama’s transition team), is married to lawyer Amy Jeffress who’s representing key ‘Russiagate’ figure Lisa Page in her lawsuit against the FBI. Jeffress also served as a top aide to former Attorney General Eric Holder, while current Attorney General Merrick Garland presided over the 1999 wedding of Cooper and Jeffress…
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/conflict-interest-obama-appointed-russiagate-judge-married-lisa-pages-lawyer-knew
 
@AnnCoulter: YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!! “MAGA does not belong to President Trump. Our values never, never shifted to President Trump’s values. It was President Trump who shifted and aligned with our values.” – Kathy Barnette, PA senate candidate
 
Ex-liberal icon @ggreenwald: Rolling Stone is willing to announce *half of Americans* are Nazi psychopaths (including… non-white) because: 1) Lying in corporate media about liberals’ enemies is not just permitted but *encouraged*. 2) Liberals need to believe all who opposes them are racists.
 
@TPostMillennial: Peter Doocy asks Karine Jean-Pierre why Biden is going to visit Buffalo but he didn’t visit Waukesha: “I mean, he’s visited many communities.”
https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1526290406635356160
 
Authorities say Gunman in deadly attack at California church was Chinese immigrant motivated by hate for Taiwanese – AP   @AnnCoulter: Well, that’s the end of this story. “…
 
@JackPosobiec: There was a guy shooting people in DC with a sniper setup, while livestreaming. This took place last month in our nation’s capital. It has been completely memory-holed. NYC subway and Waukesha parade too.  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1526291423544365059
 
Flashback: Biden praised ‘constant,’ ‘unrelenting’ stream of immigration into US
Biden made the comments in 2014 and 2015… the U.S. benefits from a “constant” and “unrelenting” stream of immigration — and that those with white European heritage becoming a minority in the U.S. is “a source of our strength.”… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/flashback-joe-biden-constant-unrelenting-immigration
 
Politico: Immigration reform could be bonanza for Dems   04/22/2013
The immigration proposal pending in Congress would transform the nation’s political landscape for a generation or more — pumping as many as 11 million new Hispanic voters into the electorate a decade from now in ways that, if current trends hold, would produce an electoral bonanza for Democrats and cripple Republican prospects in many states they now win easily.
    Beneath the philosophical debates about amnesty and border security, there are brass-tacks partisan calculations driving the thinking of lawmakers in both parties over comprehensive immigration reform, which in its current form offers a pathway to citizenship — and full voting rights…
https://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/immigration-reform-could-upend-electoral-college-090478?hp=t1
 
GOP @RepTenney: 234,088 illegal immigrants were stopped at the Southern Border in April— the highest number DHS has EVER recorded. 117,989 of them were released into the US.
 
The so-called “great replacement theory” asserts that there is an intentional effort to replace white Americans with people of color by encouraging immigration Gendron, the 18-year-old suspect in Saturday’s attack, cited the theory in a manifesto…
https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/3489423-buffalo-shooting-pushes-great-replacement-theory-into-national-spotlight/
 
Just like with CRT, Dems and their MSM stooges are denying a great replacement exists – despite blatant evidence and numerous MSM stories about the benefits for Dems of importing voters.
 
Reporters quizzed new WH Press Sec Karine Jean-Pierre about Great Replacement Theory and the Buffalo massacre.  She wisely did not take the bait, possibly because Joe has espoused importing voters. 
 
Hispanic voters lose faith in Democrats over inflation (The irony is delicious.)
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/hispanics-lose-faith-democrats-over-inflation-us-elections-loom-2022-05-02/
 
Tucker Carlson: ‘Racial and identity politics lead to violence and death’.  Carlson said he expected Biden will play racial politics today when he goes to Buffalo.  Carlson excoriated Dems and MSM types that trying to blame the Buffalo massacre on their political opponents.
 
MSNBC ‘military analyst’ posts video game clip claiming it’s Ukraine war footage
Retired Four Star General Barry McCaffrey who now serves as a “military analyst” for MSNBC tweeted out footage of fighting in Ukraine that was actually a clip from a video game…
https://thepostmillennial.com/msnbc-military-analyst-posts-video-game-clip-claiming-its-ukraine-war-footage/
 
AP: Judge rules that California’s landmark law requiring women on corporate boards is unconstitutional.

Let us close today with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter

See you on WEDNESDAY

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