JUNE 1/GOLD UP $1.00 AT $1845.90//SILVER UP 19 CENTS TO $21.85//PLATINUM UP 429.55 TO $1000.20//PALLIDIUM UP $4.45 TO $2006.95//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT UPDATE//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA WAR UPDATE//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

June 1, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1844.85. UP $1.00 

SILVER: $21.66 UP  $.19

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1846.70

SILVER: $21.83

Bitcoin morning price:  $31,578 DOWN 113

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $30,262  down 1429

Platinum price: closing UP $28.55 to $1000.20

Palladium price; closing UP $4.55  at $2006.95

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX EXCHANGE: COMEX

JPMorgan issued  2380/4723

EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: JUNE 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,842.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/31/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 06/02/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


072 C GOLDMAN 136
104 C MIZUHO 4
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 221 122
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 213
132 C SG AMERICAS 12 6
159 C ED&F MAN CAP 2
167 C MAREX 3
226 C DIRECT ACCESS 1
323 C HSBC 194
323 H HSBC 660
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 88
357 C WEDBUSH 128 1
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 136
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 77
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 242
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 4
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 192
661 C JP MORGAN 4100 2380
685 C RJ OBRIEN 11
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 4 30
690 C ABN AMRO 39
700 C UBS 124

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 05/31/2022 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 05/31/2022
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 22:12:06
709 H BARCLAYS 78
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 13
737 C ADVANTAGE 4 1
800 C MAREX SPEC 26 22
880 C CITIGROUP 7 4
905 C ADM 60 101


TOTAL: 4,723 4,723
MONTH TO DATE: 8,808


NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JUNE CONTRACT 4723  NOTICE(S) FOR 472300 Oz  TONNES)

total notices so far: 8805 contracts for 880,500 oz (27.396 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

37 NOTICE(S) FILED 185,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  1441  :  for 7,205,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $1.00

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.836 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $.19 CENTS

AT THE SLV// A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://NO CHANGES IN SILVER IVWENTORY AT THE SLV.: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.538 MILLION OZ FROMTHE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 556.133 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A FELL SIZED  68 CONTRACTS TO 147,301   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND  THE GOOD GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR   $0.42 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.42) BUT  ALSO UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SILVER LONGS AS THEY REMAIN FIRM IN THEIR BELIEF OF A SILVER FAILURE AS WE HAD A STRONG NET GAIN OF1340 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 7.635 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 27 CONTRACTS OR 135,000 OZ//NEW STANDING:  7,770,000 / //  V)    TINY SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : -118

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JUNE. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 1 day, total 1300,  contracts:  6.7 million oz  OR 6.7 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1300CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 6.7 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 6.7 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 68 DESPITE OUR  $0.42 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1300 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE. OF 7.635 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 135,000 QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING:7,770,000 //  .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1340 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 1340 MILLION  OZ WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE. 

 WE HAD 37  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  185,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A STRONG SIZED 6447 CONTRACTS  TO 513,972 AND FURTHER FROM NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – 108 CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

.

THE  STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $15.10//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR GIGANTIC SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   //JUST SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR STUPID SPECULATORS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 69.26 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE /

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF   $15.10 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 696  OI CONTRACTS 2.166 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED  6447 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 513,972

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 446, WITH 6001 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 6447 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF446 CONTRACTS OR 1.387 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (6447) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (6001,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 446 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE. AT 69.26 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S EFP  JUMP TO LONDON//NEW STANDING: /  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING //.,4) STRONG SIZED COMEX  OI. LOSS 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JUNE

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE :

6447 CONTRACTS OR 644700 OR 20.05  TONNES 1 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 6447 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 20.05 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  20.05/3550 x 100% TONNES  0.56% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 20.05 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAY.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A TINY SIZED 68 CONTRACT OI TO 147,301 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 1300 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY 1300  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 68 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1300 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1232   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE  GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6.160 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF  $0.42 .

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

end

6. Commodity commentaries/DIESEL

On Diesel, BlackRock & Food Shortages

Inbox

Robert Hryniak9:35 AM (6 minutes ago)
to

Something to ponder …. 



“KEVIN MOORE rsSnpy9 u27mf A M8 t0l008:aMal · Diesel Peeps Do you know what DEF fluid is? It’s Diesel Exhaust Fluid. Every Diesel truck that has been made since 2010 is required to use it. It’s a product made of 67% Urea fertilizer and 33% distilled water. Every diesel truck you see driving down the road today has to have this product to drive. The engines won’t start without it. There are regulators inside the engine that mix DEF with the Diesel to reduce Diesel emissions. That’s the purpose of DEF. Right now, Russia is the largest exporter of Urea by a wide margin. Qatar is second. Egypt and China are Tied for 3rd. Both Russia and China have decided to no longer export Urea. On top of that, India is the largest manufacturer of Urea in the world even though they consume most of what they make. What little they would export……….they no longer do. They are now stopping the exportation of any and all Urea minus a deal they just cut with Sri Lanka. What does this mean for you and me? Well, first, the United States imports most of it’s Urea fertilizer. We are the third largest importer in the entire world. We depend on other countries to eat, drive and ship our products.

Secondly… Flying J is the largest Service provider for Truckers around the Unites States. I’m sure you’ve seen their massive gas stations when traveling around the country. Flying J gets 70% of their DEF fluid from shipments via Union Pacific railroad. UP has single user access to the Fertilizer plants that Urea/DEF fluid comes from. No other rail provider has access to these distribution points. This means Flying J can’t just go around Union Pacific. Union Pacific is in charge….for a reason I’m gonna mention in a few paragraphs.

Flying J provides 30% of all DEF consumed in the United States. UP has told Flying J to reduce their shipments by a whopping 50%. And if they do not comply then they will be completely embargoed. That would in effect bankrupt FJ. This means that 15% of all DEF consumed by truckers in the US is no longer available at the largest travel service center for the entire trucking industry.

Rome rotted from the inside out. It was easily invaded because it was occupied with internal problems. It appears we have discovered the Trigger. DEF fluid. If this holds up, DEF shortages will be the catalyst that causes food shortages in the coming months. Not only is there a shortage of fertilizer to grow crops in drought-stricken states (See Kansas’ drop in wheat production for 2022)….but….now it looks like, unless the Federal Government intervenes via the Defense Production Act, …which I am no longer confident they will….there is gonna be an absolute massive shortage of trucking in the coming months.

There simply isn’t going to be DEF fluid sufficient to keep the engines running and moving. Home Depot is now limiting the amount of DEF you can buy in their stores.

I would think long and hard about the decisions you are making right now. Where you live. What you spend money on. How you prepare. This is so real that the CEO of Flying J, Shameek Konar was summoned to a Surface Transportation Board hearing to give them all this info.

From what I’m reading….Blackrock is the majority shareholder of Union Pacific railroad. How is that important? Americas biggest fertilizer producer is CF Industries. Their largest shareholder is Blackrock. Blackrock controls the fertilizer industry in the U.S.. Union Pacific has exclusive rights to distribution points of fertilizer. Urea is fertilizer. Flying J needs Urea/DEF. Blackrock is controlling everything.

The Chairman of the BlackRock Investment Institute is Tom Donilon, President Obama’s former National Security Advisor. Tom Donilon’s brother, Mike Donilon is a Senior Advisor to Joe Biden. Tom Donilon’s wife, Catherine Russell, is the White House Personnel Director. Tom Donilon’s daughter, Sarah Donilon, who graduated college in 2019, now works on the White House National Security Council.

It appears Blackrock is spearheading the dismantling of the US system on behalf of the Globalists. And the first domino they are pushing over is the energy sector. They are using DEF to get the party started. This is one sector of the biggest downfalls in political repercussions this country has ever faced…”

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 4.27 PTS OR 0,13%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 178,09 PTS OR 0.65%    /The Nikkei closed UP 178,09 OR 0.65%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .10%%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6,6871    /Oil UP TO 116.15dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 117050 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6871 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6961: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER/

a)NORTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 6001 CONTRACTS TO 513,722 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS SMALL  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  LOSS OF $15.10 IN GOLD PRICING TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP (6447 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ARE CAUGHT. THE COMMERCIALS WILL SLAUGHTER THESE GUYS WHEN THEY THINK THE TIME IS RIGHT

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 6447 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 AUG :6447 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6447 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A  SMALL SIZED  TOTAL OF 446 CONTRACTS IN THAT 6001 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 6447  CONTRACTS..AND YET  THIS  GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH  OUR  LOSS IN PRICE OF GOLD $15.10.   

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY   (68.157),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 68.157 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $15.10) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS AS WELL AS SPECULATOR SHORTS////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A SMALL SIZED GAIN  OF 446 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE (68.157 TONNES)

WE HAD XXX CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 446 CONTRACTS OR 44600  OZ OR 1.387 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 154,015/// poor

Confirmed volume yesterday:215,,494 contracts  fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JUNE ’22 COMEX GOLD //JUNE 1

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz64,334.150 oz Brinks
2001 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil
No of oz served (contracts) today4723  notice(s)
472,300 OZ
14.690 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)13104 contracts 
1,310,400 oz
40.75 tonnes
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month8808 notices
880,800 OZ
27,396 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

dealer deposits  0

total dealer deposit  0   oz//

No dealer withdrawals

0 customer deposits

total deposits: nil oz

1 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks:  64,334.150 oz 2001 kilobars

total withdrawal: 64,334.150  oz

ADJUSTMENTS:  2

i)  dealer to customer:  Brinks 2212.380 oz

ii) dealer to customer: Malca  4179.258 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE.

For the front month of JUNE we have an  oi of 17,827 contracts having LOST 4441 contracts

We had 4085 notices filed on Friday so we lost 336 contracts or 33,600 oz will not stand as they were EFP’d to London 

July has a GAIN OF 262 OI to stand at 2096

August has a loss of 476 contracts down to 432,520 contracts

We had 4723 notice(s) filed today for  4723 oz FOR THE JUNE 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  4100 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 4723 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and  2380 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8808) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JUNE 17,8277  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  4723 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,191200 OZ  OR 68.157 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of JUNE. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE contract month:

No of notices filed so far (8808) x 100 oz+   (17,827)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (4723} x 100 oz} which equals 2,191200 oz standing OR 68.157 TONNES in this   active delivery month of JUNE.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  68.157 TONNES  (A STRONG STANDING FOR A JUNE (  ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,144,416.951 oz                             

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  35,065,182.309 OZ 

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 17,044,887.111  OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 18,020,295.195 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,991.648.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  

END

JUNE 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//JUNE 1

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory618,738.160  oz
JPM
CNT
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory1,672,006.282 oz
Brinks
CNT
JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)37CONTRACT(S)
185,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)113 contracts (565,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)1441 contracts 7,205,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i) zero dealer deposits  
And now for the wild silver comex results

total dealer deposits:  0     oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 3 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Brinks:  42,011.75 oz

ii) Into CNT:  605,743.254 oz

iii)_ Into JPMorgan: 582,754.800

total deposit:  1,672m006.282    oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 173.454 million oz/338,231 million =51.27% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 2

i) Out of CNT:  42,712.210 oz

ii) Out of JPMorgan:  576,025.890 oz

total withdrawal  618,738.110      oz

2 adjustments:  dealer  to customer:

a)Manfra  60,615.480 oz

b) Brinks  14,484.08 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 72,438 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 338.231 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JUNE OI: 150 HAVING LOST 1377 CONTRACTS. 

WE HAD 1404 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 27 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 135,000 OZ WILL STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE

DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE

JULY HAD A LOSS OF 357 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 108,307 CONTRACTS.

AUGUST GAINED 8 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 8

SEPTEMBER HAD A GAIN OF 854 CONTRACTS UP TO 24,563 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 37 for 185,000 oz

Comex volumes:53,910// est. volume today//   poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 74,841 contracts ( fair )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1404 x 5,000 oz = 7,020,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE(150) and the number of notices served upon today 37  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JUNE./2022 contract month: 150 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE (150)  – number of notices served upon today (37) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month equates 7,770,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $1$ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AWITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.36 TONNES

MAY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.10: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.95//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

May 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.10/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

MAY 25/WITH GOLD UP @$2.70: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.89./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.07 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.97 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS  AT 1056.18 TONNES

MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $24.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.21 TONNES//

MAY 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.07 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.21 TONNES

MAY 17/WITH GOLD UP $5.40:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.28 TONNES

MAY 16/WITH GOLD UP $5.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.89 TONNES

MAY 13/ WITH GOLD DOWN $16.25//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.8 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.82 TONNES

MAY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.99 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.62 TONNES

MAY 11/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.25 TONNES FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.65 TONNES

MAY 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.10 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.90 TONNES

MAY 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.05: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.98 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.00 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $7.95: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1084.98 TONNES

MAY 5/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.04 TONNES

MAY 4//WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 \TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.04 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $6.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A WITHDRAWL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1092.23

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.20: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1094.55 TONNES

APRIL 29/WITH GOLD UP $20.05/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1095,72 TONNES

APRIL 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.77 TONNES FROM THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1095.72 TONNES

APRIL 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.30//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.49 TONNES

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD UP $7.60//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.9 TONNES INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101.23 TONNES

APRIL 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.13 TONNES 

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.13 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1106.74 TONNES

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT IF 6.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1106.74 TONNES

APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1100.36 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $11.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.44 TONNES

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A  DEPOSIT OF 11.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.42 TONNES

APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $26.95: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 //A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1090.49 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1068.36 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JUNE 1/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.538 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.133 MILLION OZ//

MAY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN $.41 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST S AT 558.071 MILLION OZ//

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.071 MILLION OZ///

MAY 26/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.515 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.071 MILLION OZ

MAY 25/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .922 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.486 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20.WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WIHDRAWAL OF .785 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 18/WITH SILVER UP $0.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL  1.892 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 17/WITH SILVER UP $.22 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.508 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 16/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.546 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.593 MILLION OZ//

MAY 13/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ/

MAY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ//

May 11/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.487 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ//

MAY 10.//WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .93 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .851 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.900 MILLION OZ

MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF.877 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 47 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 554,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.171 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 29//WITH SILVER DOWN 12  CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.725 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.308 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.725 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.385 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.033 MILLION OZ

APRIL 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.418 MILLION OZ

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.031 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.418 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS : STRANGE!! A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING DEPOSIT OF 3.508 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 581.449 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 21/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.941 MILLION OZ

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS : A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.955 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.941 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .461 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY…//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.986 MILLION OZ

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.771 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.447 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS : A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.355 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 569.676 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP 66 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 831,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

INVENTORY TONIGHT RESTS AT 556.133 MILLION OZ/

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Another volatile month for gold, equities and bitcoin

Like April, May has brought little cheer to the equity markets with inflationary pressures, and the Fed’s measures being taken to try and control them, seeming to be inevitably driving the U.S. economy into a period of stagflation, possibly even to be followed by recession. Even the dreaded prospect of a depression to match that of 1929-30 is on some economists’ lips. Equity prices are down quite heavily year to date, but are continually being buoyed up by, in our view, unjustified bullish comments from Wall Street analysts keen to maintain business. Such is what passes for market analysis!

Stagflation, though, is also a word on many lips. It is defined as a period of stagnant growth coupled with high inflation, usually triggered by a sharp rise in energy prices – much as we are seeing today. The fall in unemployment as the U.S. economy began to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic tended to counter this trend, but there is some evidence that this is beginning to turn around again as inflation eats into disposable incomes and consumer spending begins to turn down cutting demand for goods and services. Whether this turns into a full-blown recession is rather less certain, however.

The various movements in prices and indexes over the year to date and the past month are set out in the table below. As can be seen most have trended downwards sharply since the beginning of the year with some notable exceptions, although we don’t expect these to be sustained. Overall movement in the market indexes in particular over the past month seem to have been somewhat muted, or even positive, despite some very sharp interim falls, but again we don’t expect the occasional index recoveries to be sustained unless, of course, the Fed does reverse its tightening and interest raising programmes which some analysts see as likely before the year-end.

The various inflation indexes suggest that inflation levels may have eased, marginally, but not sufficiently to suggest an actual prolonged downtrend. The latest such to be announced, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), the Fed’s preferred measure – the cynics might say because it presents the lowest inflation figures – came in at 6.3% year-on-year for April, the same level as February and down from 6.6% in March, but although equities moved higher, gold also moved up a little and it was felt that it would have no impact at all on the Fed’s likely move to raise interest rates at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) in a couple of weeks’ time.

Past evidence suggests that recession does not usually follow a period of stagflation. But a programme of 50 basis point interest rate increases at successive FOMC meetings, as the Fed seems to be planning, may be sufficient to trigger sharp falls in equity prices across the board and be instrumental in tipping the whole U.S. economy into a recessionary downwards spiral.

Equity downturns can be sharp and severe as we saw in the middle of the past month when the Dow lost over 2,000 points over a 3-day period. Even though we have seen partial recoveries in equities since, similar sharp downturns can’t be ruled out in the weeks and months ahead. A fall in the Dow to below 30,000., the S&P 500 to under 3,750 and the NASDAQ to less than 10,500 over the next month or two cannot therefore be ruled out.

Precious metals seem to have made something of a recovery, but not yet a significant one. Gold moved back above $1,850 at the beginning of the past week, but in a take-down on Tuesday due to some better consumer confidence figures, it was even unable to hold on to this level, while silver continued to disappoint its followers and the pgms continued volatile. We suspect consumer confidence will dissipate as inflation is seen to be continuing and gold, in particular, should recover any lost ground.

Precious metals stocks have tended to outperform their respective metal prices, but only marginally so. Certainly the major precious metals miners should be making strong profits at current metal price levels.

The wild card here seems to be dollar strength. A strong dollar tends to lead to a weaker gold price in U.S. dollar terms, and the dollar has tended to move upwards against competitive currencies in recent weeks despite the apparent weakness in the U.S. economy. This may not necessarily continue and there were some signs of a developing dollar downturn towards the end of the past month.

Data released during the month suggested that U.S. Q1 GDP turned negative and the latest projection by the Atlanta Fed is that the Q2 GDP growth estimate has shrunk to a mere 1.8%. Given how unexpected the Q1 fall was it might be no surprise if the Q2 figure ends up flat, or even negative too, and if the latter would tip the U.S. economy into a technical recession. We don’t necessarily expect that this will happen, but investors should perhaps be prepared for the possibility and any negative market fallout resulting.

There is some speculation also that China and Russia, as the world’s top two gold producers by some estimates, may be attempting to introduce a gold-backed global reserve currency to rival the dollar’s current dominant reserve status. Should this speculation be accurate, and a new such reserve currency find acceptance, then the dollar could well enter a period of value decline globally, which would certainly benefit the gold price, at least in dollar terms.

Inflationary trends seem likely to continue to influence equity and precious metals markets despite proposed Fed actions on tightening and interest rate rises. Markets are thus likely to remain volatile as they have been over the past couple of months and will be moved up and down by data releases seen as positive or negative. Equities and bitcoin may well thus continue depressed overall, while gold, in particular, may catch an upwards bid as markets consider the underlying trends. However, uncertainty will likely continue to reign until we see a definitive move by one or other of the key market components.

01 Jun 2022

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

END

END

end

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES //PALM OIL+ OTHERS

END

END

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.6871

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.6961

HANG SANG CLOSED  DOWN 120.26 PTS OR 0.56% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 178.09% OR .65%

3. Europe stocks  ALL CLOSED  ALL MIXED

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  102.02/Euro FALLS TO 1.0714

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.233/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 128.11/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -SHORE CLOSED  DOWN//  OFF- SHORE DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +0.859%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 2.75% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 1.90%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.58

3j Gold at $1831.85 silver at: 21.62  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP  0.50      roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 61.40

3m oil into the 116 dollar handle for WTI and  117 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 129.58DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9620– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0306well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.875 UP 3  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.074 UP 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 16.40

Futures Start New Month Flat As Fed’s QT2 Begins

WEDNESDAY, JUN 01, 2022 – 07:50 AM

Stocks traded off session highs as weaker-than-average volumes mark the beginning of summer, and as traders awaited the jobs report later this week and eyed the official start of the Fed’s second Quantitative Tightening program (which will end as “gloriously” as the first one) which will drain the Fed’s balance sheet by $95BN per month.

Contracts on the S&P 500 were 0.2% higher by 730 a.m. in New York, after the underlying index finished May up exactly 0.1%;  Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.1%. European bourses and Asian stocks were modestly in the red to stgart the new quarter. The latest drop in Treasuries pushed 10-year yields closer to 2.9% as traders raised bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. The dollar advanced against major peers, and bitcoin traded around $31,500. Oil rose as investors assessed the future of OPEC+ unity, just as ministers from the group prepare to meet on Thursday to discuss its supply policy for July. Crude advanced about 10% in May, stoking more inflation worries.

Concerns that the Fed’s rate hikes may induce a recession are keeping investors guessing about the outlook for the economy as rising food and energy costs squeeze consumers, and volatility has picked up.

“US markets, and by default, global markets, will still indulge in schizophrenic swings in market sentiment as the FOMO dip-buyers become increasingly frantic in their attempts to pick a cyclical low in equity markets,” said Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst at Oanda Asia Pacific Pte.

On Tuesday, Joe Biden used a rare meeting with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to declare that he’s respecting the central bank’s independence and to throw Powell under the bus for any continued high inflation. The meeting came ahead of US payroll numbersFriday.

“There are heightened concerns around inflation and where central banks are likely to go trying to combat inflation,” Kristina Hooper, Invesco Advisers chief global markets strategist, said on Bloomberg Radio. “This has gone from just an inflation scare to a growth scare. Uncertainty has grown.”

In premarket trading, Salesforce shares jumped 8.3% after the software company raised its full-year forecast for adjusted earnings. HP will be in focus after the company reported better-than-expected sales and profit driven by steady demand for computer systems.  Other notable premarket movers:

  • Digital Turbine (APPS US) fell 4.1% in New York premarket trading on Wednesday after the mobile services platform’s fourth-quarter results and first-quarter forecast. Roth Capital Partners analyst Darren Aftahi says the company provided soft guidance, but noted that its commentary around SingleTap licensing should be supportive.
  • View (VIEW US) shares surge as much as 30% in US premarket trading, after the glass manufacturing firm reported its full-year results late Tuesday, with the company saying it expects to file its delinquent 10-K and 10-Q on or before June 30.
  • ChargePoint (CHPT US) analysts noted that the EV charging network firm’s margins came under pressure due to rising costs and supply-chain disruption, leading some brokers to trim their targets on the stock. ChargePoint shares dropped 2.7% in US postmarket trading on Tuesday after posting a 1Q lossthat was wider than expected.
  • Victoria’s Secret (VSCO US) analysts were positive on the lingerie company’s results, with Wells Fargo saying that its turnaround is on track despite a tough macroeconomic environment, while VitalKnowledge said that the update was a “big victory” amid the retail gloom. The shares gained 7.3% post-market Tuesday.
  • HP (HPQ US) shares edged up in extended trading on Tuesday, after the company reported better-than- expected sales and profit driven by steady demand for computer systems. Analysts lauded the company’s execution as it navigates a challenging supply and macroeconomic environment.
  • Ambarella (AMBA US) shares fell 5.6% in extended trading on Tuesday after the semiconductor device company issued a tepid second-quarter revenue forecast as lockdowns in China weigh on its near-term outlook. Analysts said that there is weakness in the near-term, but the long-term thesis remains intact.

Late on Tuersday, Fed’s Bostic said there could be a significant reduction in inflation this year and that his suggestion for a pause in September should not be interpreted as a “Fed put” or belief that the Fed would rescue markets, according to an interview in MarketWatch. Elsewhere, Treasury Secretary Yellen said US President Biden’s top concern is inflation and shares the Fed’s priority of slowing inflation, while she added she was wrong about the path inflation would take and doesn’t expect the same pace of job gains going forward, according to Reuters.

Citigroup Inc. strategists said that after a difficult first five months of 2022, the pain may not be over yet for global equity markets. The prospect of downward revisions to earnings estimates is the latest headwind to face stock investors, already rattled by runaway inflation and the potential impact of central-bank tightening aimed at controlling it, the strategists led by Jamie Fahy wrote in a note.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index erased earlier gains to trade 0.2% lower a day after euro-zone figures showed a record jump in consumer prices and on investor concerns that record inflation will pressure the European Central Bank to act more aggressively, increasing the risk of an economic slump. The DAX outperformed, adding 0.3%. Miners, utilities and real estate are the worst-performing sectors.  Autos are the day’s best performing sector and one of few rising subgroups amid declining markets; the Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts Index rises 2.1% as of 1:10pm CET, rebounding after a session of declines on Tuesday and on course for a fifth day of gains in six. Carmakers such as Stellantis, Renault and Volkswagen lead the advances. Stellantis +3.4%, VW +3.4%, Renault +3.4%, Porsche Automobil Holding SE +3.2%, BMW +2.8%, Volvo Car +2.5%, Mercedes-Benz Group +2.5%. Here are the biggest European movers:

  • Dr. Martens shares surge as much as 30%, the most since January 2021, after the UK bootmaker reported pretax profit for the full year that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Lanxess shares rise as much as 2.5%, adding to an 11% gain on Tuesday. The chemicals group is raised to buy from hold at Stifel. Berenberg also hikes its PT on the stock.
  • Societe Generale shares up as much as 2.6% after UBS upgrades the investment bank to buy from neutral, noting the company’s valuation is “too cheap to ignore.”
  • Capricorn Energy shares rise after company reached an agreement on the terms of a recommended all-share combination with Africa-focused oil and gas developer Tullow Oil.
  • Stadler Rail shares jump as much as 4.3%, most since March, after it signed a contract to deliver up to 510 FLIRT trains to the Swiss Federal Railways, according to a statement.
  • OVS gains as much as 7.1% to highest since end of March after Banca Akros upgrades its rating to buy, saying in note that May appears to have been a strong month for the Italian fashion retailer.
  • Saint-Gobain shares fluctuate after the building material company agreed to buy Canadian siding producer Kaycan for $928m to strengthen its position in the North American building-products market.
  • Zalando shares fall as much as 5.1% after being downgraded to equal- weight from overweight at Barclays, which cites near-term challenges for the online fashion retailer.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks edged lower after fluctuating in a narrow range, as traders assessed China’s easing virus restrictions and the persistent risk of global inflation. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down less than 0.1%, with declines in technology and utilities shares offsetting gains in consumer discretionary stocks. Japan’s Topix Index rose more than 1% as the yen weakened, while indexes in Malaysia and the Philippines fell the most. China’s shares were slightly lower after a private gauge showed factory activity in May contracted from the previous month as both production and new orders fell. Meanwhile, Shanghai’s Covid-19 cases continued to decline as most parts of the city reopened after two months under one of the world’s most restrictive pandemic lockdowns. 

Asian equities completed their first monthly advance this year in May amid optimism China’s easing lockdowns will improve the region’s growth outlook, even as soaring oil prices and global inflation fuel concerns of tighter monetary policies. Near-term concerns over inflation, economic growth and China’s Zero Covid policy are likely to persist, but investors can expect a “stabilization in 3Q as valuations reset and positive catalysts emerge,” Chetan Seth, Asia Pacific equity strategist at Nomura, wrote in a note. Markets in South Korea and Indonesia were closed for holidays.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1% as the greenback strengthened against all its Group-of-10 peers apart from the Australian dollar. The yen was the worst performer and fell to a two-week low. The euro neared the $1.07 handle before paring losses. Bunds were little changed with focus on ECB rate hike pricing and possible comments by policy makers including President Christine Lagarde before the ‘quiet’ period kicks ahead of next Thursday’s policy decision. The Aussie inched up and Australian bonds fell as data showed the economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter. Rising Treasury yields also weighed on Aussie debt.

In rates, Treasury yields inched up with the curve slightly bear-flattenning, before the Federal Reserve starts its quantitative-tightening program today. The Fed will start shrinking its balance sheet at a pace of $47.5 billion a month before stepping that up to $95 billion in September. Treasuries were slightly cheaper across the curve, with yields off session highs in early US session. Yields are up 2bp-3bp across the curve, led higher by 5-year sector; the 10-year yield is at 2.87% underperforms bunds and gilts. Economists expect a second straight half-point rate increase from the Bank of Canada at 10am ET; swaps market prices in 52bp and 184bp by year-end. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far; six entities priced a total of $12.6b Tuesday, and two stood down. Bunds and Italian bonds are little changed, with the 10-year yields on both trading off session high after ECB’s Holzmann said new inflation record backs need for a 50bps hike. Money markets are pricing a cumulative 119bps of tightening in December.

In commodities, WTI trades within Tuesday’s range, adding 1.6% to above $116. Most base metals are in the red; LME nickel falls 2.4%, underperforming peers. Spot gold falls roughly $8 to trade around $1,829/oz.

Looking the day ahead now, data releases include the global manufacturing PMIs for May and the US ISM manufacturing reading for May. Otherwise, there’s German retail sales for April, the Euro Area unemployment rate for April, US construction spending for April, the JOLTS job openings for April and, May ISM manufacturing and the latest Fed Beige Book. From central banks, the Bank of Canada will be making its latest policy decision and the Fed will be releasing their Beige Book. Otherwise, speakers include ECB President Lagarde and the ECB’s Knot, Villeroy, Panetta and Lane, the Fed’s Williams and Bullard, and PBoC Governor Yi Gang.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,133.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 442.18
  • MXAP down 0.1% to 169.26
  • MXAPJ down 0.5% to 556.42
  • Nikkei up 0.7% to 27,457.89
  • Topix up 1.4% to 1,938.64
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 21,294.94
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.1% to 3,182.16
  • Sensex down 0.4% to 55,336.61
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,233.98
  • Kospi up 0.6% to 2,685.90
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.14%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0727
  • Brent Futures up 1.4% to $117.23/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,834.26
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.16% to 101.92

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The latest all-time high for euro-zone inflation strengthens the case for the European Central Bank to lift interest rates by a half-point in July, according to Governing Council member Robert Holzmann
  • Croatia is about to find out whether it’s in good enough shape to become the euro zone’s 20th member. Progress made by country will be assessed in reports due Wednesday from the ECB and the European Union’s executive arm
  • Sweden’s main stock exchange venue, Nasdaq Stockholm, is looking into a new service that will provide clearing for inflation-linked swaps in Swedish kronor
  • China’s financial capital reported its fewest Covid-19 cases in almost three months as residents celebrated a significant easing of curbs on movement, while some companies took a more cautious approach, maintaining some restrictions in factories
  • China’s factory activity in May contracted from the previous month as both production and new orders fell, although the slowdown wasn’t as fast as in April, a private gauge showed Wednesday
  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen gave her most direct admission yet that she made an incorrect call last year in predicting that elevated inflation wouldn’t pose a continuing problem
  • President Joe Biden said he’ll give Ukraine advanced rocket systems and other US weaponry to better hit targets in its war with Russia, ramping up military support as the conflict drags into its fourth month
  • New Zealand’s central bank is seeking feedback on whether its monetary policy remit is “still fit for purpose,” Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby said. “It’s not about should it still be about price stability and maximum sustainable employment,” he said. “It’s more about have we got the right inflation targets, are we measuring it the right way, what horizon are we trying to achieve it over, what other things should we have regard to.”

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pacific stocks traded mixed as risk sentiment only mildly improved from the lacklustre performance stateside as the region digested another slew of data releases including the continued contraction in Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI. ASX 200 was kept afloat by strength in industrials, telecoms and the top-weighted financials sector, while better-than-expected Q1 GDP data provides some mild encouragement. Nikkei 225 was underpinned by further currency depreciation and with BoJ Deputy Governor Wakatabe reiterating the BoJ’s dovish tone. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive after Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory and amid mixed COVID-related developments with Shanghai reopening from the lockdown whilst Beijing’s Fengtai district tightened curbs and required all residents to work remotely.

Top Asian News

  • Beijing reports two COVID cases during 15hrs to 3pm local time on June 1st
  • Hong Kong Retail Sales Unexpectedly Rebound as Covid Curbs Ease
  • Sri Lanka’s President Won’t Be Stepping Down Soon, Minister Says
  • Europe, Asian Factories Under Pressure on China, War in Ukraine
  • Philippine IPO’s Stellar Gain May Wane With Inflation: ECM Watch

European bourses are mixed, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%, and have struggled to find a clear direction after mixed APAC trade with a busy docket ahead. Stateside, futures are posting similar performance and looking to a busy data and Central Bank afternoon session, ES +0.2%.

Top European News

  • UK government is drawing up plans that will task the BoE with stepping in and handling the implosion of a stablecoin in preparation for future crises in the crypto markets, according to The Times.
  • EU Commission President von der Leyen will, on Wednesday, approve Poland’s national recovery plan; however, Politico reports that commissioners, including Timmermans and Vestager, will raise objections to this as Poland has not taken the necessary steps for Commission approval.
  • UK House Prices Defy Slowdown Fears With 10th Consecutive Gain
  • ECB Half-Point Hike Seen as Deutsche Bank Breaks With Consensus
  • Wood to Sell Built-Environment Unit to WSP for $1.9 Billion
  • BT’s Sport TV Deal With Warner Bros. Discovery Gets UK Probe

FX

  • Yen extends losses through more technical support levels, 129.0O and 129.50 as BoJ reiterates dovish stance and maintains that it is undesirable for monetary policy to target FX rates.
  • Dollar drifts otherwise after month end squeeze as attention turns to busy midweek agenda and run in to NFP on Friday, DXY retracts into tighter 102.060-101.760 range.
  • Aussie outperforms on the back of firmer than forecast Q1 GDP data, but hampered by decent option expiry interest sub-0.7200 vs Greenback.
  • Euro unable to glean much impetus from hawkish ECB Holzmann as option expiries sit between 1.0740-75.
  • Loonie pivots 1.2650 pre-BoC awaiting confirmation of the 50bp hike expected or something more hawkish.
  • Marked slowdown in Hungarian manufacturing PMI piles more pressure on Forint following half point NBH rate rise vs 60bp consensus, EUR/HUF inching closer to 400.00, at circa 398.50.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent are recovering from yesterday’s WSJ source report induced downside, with participants awaiting clarity/details at Thursday’s OPEC+ gathering.
  • Currently, the benchmarks are holding around/above USD 117/bbl, vs respective lows of USD 114.58/bbl and USD 115.40/bbl respectively.
  • Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov met with his Saudi counterpart on Tuesday in which they both praised the level of cooperation in OPEC+, while they noted stabilising effect that tight Russia-Saudi coordination has on the global hydrocarbon market, according to Reuters.
  • UAE is considering a plan to increase its oil capacity by an additional 1mln bpd to a total 6mln bpd by 2030, according to Energy Intel.
  • JMMC on Thursday now scheduled for 13:00BST (prev. 12:00BST), OPEC+ at 13:30BST, via Argus’ Itayim.
  • Police clashed with communities blocking MMG’s Las Bambas copper mine in Peru.
  • China’s State Planner says renewable energy consumption is to reach circa. 1bln/T of standard-coal-equivalent by 2025, equal to 20% of total consumption; aims to secure around 33% of electricity from renewable sources by 2025.
  • Spot gold is modestly softer amid ongoing USD upside and continuing to draft from a cluster of DMAs above USD 1840/oz, with base metals broadly lower as well.

Central Banks

  • ECB’s Holzmann says the record Eurozone inflation print backs the need for a 50bps hike, decisive action is required in order to avoid harsher steps later. A clear rate signal could support EUR.
  • BoJ Deputy Governor Wakatabe said the BoJ must maintain powerful monetary easing and sustain an environment where wages can rise, while he added that the BoJ shouldn’t rule out additional easing steps if risks to the economy materialise. Wakatabe also noted that most goods prices aren’t increasing with recent inflation driven mostly by energy and some food price increases, as well as noted that consumer inflation has not yet achieved the BoJ’s price goal in a sustained and stable manner, according to Reuters. Adds, it is undesirable to target FX in guiding monetary policy; desirable for FX to reflect fundamentals.

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: May MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -1.2%
  • 09:45: May S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 57.5, prior 57.5
  • 10:00: April JOLTs Job Openings, est. 11.3m, prior 11.5m
  • 10:00: April Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.1%
  • 10:00: May ISM Manufacturing, est. 54.5, prior 55.4
  • 14:00: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

Central Banks

  • 11:30: Fed’s Williams Makes Opening Remarks
  • 13:00: Fed’s Bullard Discusses the Economic and Policy Outlook
  • 14:00: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

We’ll be off here in the UK tomorrow and Friday as we’ll be celebrating the Queen being on the throne for an astonishing 70 years. I find the best way to celebrate is via the medium of golf! To put things in perspective, when I get to 100 years old I’ll be celebrating exactly 70 years at DB. In our absence Tim will still be publishing the EMR for the next couple of days.

Believe it or not it’s now June! It only seems like yesterday it was Xmas. Perhaps 70 years isn’t so long after all. Since it’s the start of the month, our usual performance review for the month just gone will be out shortly. A number of financial assets began to stabilise in May, helped by a combination of factors such as easing Covid restrictions in China and the potential that the Fed wouldn’t hike as aggressively as some had feared. That said, it’s still been an awful performance on a YTD basis, with the S&P 500 having seen its biggest YTD loss after 5 months since 1970, whilst most of the assets in our main sample are still beneath their levels at the start of the year.

But after some respite over the last couple of weeks, the last 24 hours have seen equities and bonds sell off in tandem once again as inflation fears cranked up another notch. The main catalyst was the much stronger-than-expected flash CPI reading for the Euro Area, which at +8.1% was the fastest annual pace since the single currency’s formation.

In terms of that Euro Area CPI reading, the main headline number of +8.1% was some way above the +7.8% reading expected, whilst core CPI also rose to a record +3.8% (vs. +3.6% expected). Unsurprisingly, this has only intensified the debate on how rapidly the ECB will hike rates, and Slovakian Central Bank Governor Kazimir became the latest member of the Governing Council to say that he was “open to talk about 50 basis points”, even if his baseline was still for a 25bps move in July. The investor reaction was evident too, and overnight index swaps moved to price in 119bps worth of ECB hikes by the December meeting, which is the highest to date. It also implies that the ECB would do more than simply four 25bp moves from July, which would only sum to 100bps. The European economics team published a blog taking a deep dive into underlying inflation across the continent (link here). There are lots of different cuts of the data in the piece, but the headline is a number of underlying metrics are scoring record highs, and that a lot of the pressure is being produced domestically and not just from external shocks. In particular, Germany registers above the rest of the continent with record high underlying inflation readings. All of this underscores the call for tighter ECB policy.

Speaking of which, as previewed at the top, DB’s European economists released their ECB preview ahead of next week’s meeting yesterday, and they are now expecting the ECB to implement at least one +50bp rate hike by September, the first shop to take such a stance according to the latest Bloomberg survey. They note a +50bp hike is more likely in September but there’s a risk it comes in July. There is actually a precedent for 50bps from the ECB, although you have to go all the way back to June 2000 to find the last time they moved so quickly at a single meeting, and a +50bp hike is consistent with the reaction function President Lagarde outlined in her recent blog. Our economists also believe the ECB will be underestimating inflation with their forecast updates at next week’s meeting, necessitating a bigger rate increase early in their hiking cycle. Additionally, they expect the ECB to get rates 50bps above neutral by the middle of next year for a modestly restrictive policy stance to fight inflation. For next week’s meeting, they believe the GC will signal the end of net APP (asset purchases), clearing the way for a July liftoff. They also expect the ECB staff to raise 2024 inflation forecast to 2% and confirm the expiration of TLTRO discounts.

Elsewhere on the inflation front, it appeared that Brent crude futures were set for a 9th consecutive daily gain and their second highest close in over a decade. However a post-European close Wall Street Journal article reported that OPEC was considering exempting Russia from its oil production deal in light of sanctions, which would pave the way for other members to pump a lot more oil. This drove an intraday reversal in Brent and WTI which closed down -1.14% and -0.35%, respectively having been up +2.97% and +4.27% at their peaks for the day.

Growing fears that inflation will prove even stickier than previously hoped led to a major selloff among sovereign bonds on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday. In Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (+6.7bps), OATs (+7.5bps) and BTPs (+12.1bps) all moved higher thanks to a rise in both real rates and inflation breakevens. Meanwhile in the US, yields on 10yr Treasuries were up +10.6bps to 2.84% as markets caught up following the Memorial Day holiday and then added a bit more for good measure. We’re another +1.5bps higher this morning. As it happens, today also marks the start of the Fed’s quantitative tightening process, which starts at a pace of $30bn per month for Treasuries, and $17.5bn for MBS, although those numbers will both double after 3 months. For those wanting more details, Tim on my team released a playbook for the process a couple of weeks back (link here).

That prospect of stickier inflation and thus more aggressive rate hikes from central banks meant that equities took a knock yesterday as well. The S&P 500 was down -0.63% following its strongest weekly performance since November 2020, and small-cap stocks suffered in particular as the Russell 2000 shed -1.26%. It was a different story for the megacap tech stocks however, with the FANG+ index advancing another +0.69%, having gained more than +12% since its recent closing low last week. Over in Europe, the main indices also lost ground following their Monday gains, with the STOXX 600 (-0.72%), the DAX (-1.29%) and the CAC 40 (-1.43%) all falling back on the day. Equity futures are indicating a more positive start with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.39%), NASDAQ 100 (+0.30%) and DAX (+0.64%) all higher.

Asian equity markets are mixed this morning. The Hang Seng is down -0.67% in early trade, tracking declines in US equity markets along with a pullback in Chinese listed tech stocks. Additionally, in mainland China, the Shanghai Composite (-0.10%) and CSI (-0.13%) are also lagging. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.71%) is leading gains as the Japanese yen weakened -0.32% to 129.08 against the US dollar. Markets in South Korea are closed today for a holiday. Meanwhile, in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.12%) is edging higher after Q1 GDP advanced +0.8% from the final three months of last year (v/s +0.7% expected), taking the annual pace to +3.3% and outpacing the pre-pandemic average of around +2%.

Other data showed that South Korea’s exports accelerated, growing +21.3% y/y in May (v/s +18.4% expected), against April’s upwardly revised +12.9% increase as shipments to Europe and US improved offsetting disruptions with China’s trade. Separately, China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI improved to 48.1 from 46.0 in April.

Back to yesterday on the data front, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for May surprise to the upside at 106.4 (vs. 103.6 expected), although it was still a decline on the previous month. Otherwise in the US, the FHFA house price index for March came in at just +1.5% month-on-month (vs. +2.0% expected), but the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city index surprised on the upside with a +21.2% year-on-year gain (vs. +20.0% expected). Then the MNI Chicago PMI also surprised to the upside with a 60.3 reading (vs. 55.0 expected). Finally, the number of UK mortgage approvals in April fell to their lowest in nearly 2 years at 66.0k (vs. 70.5k expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the global manufacturing PMIs for May and the US ISM manufacturing reading for May. Otherwise, there’s German retail sales for April, the Euro Area unemployment rate for April, US construction spending for April and the JOLTS job openings for April. From central banks, the Bank of Canada will be making its latest policy decision and the Fed will be releasing their Beige Book. Otherwise, speakers include ECB President Lagarde and the ECB’s Knot, Villeroy, Panetta and Lane, the Fed’s Williams and Bullard, and PBoC Governor Yi Gang.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY NIGHT 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 4.27 PTS OR 0,13%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 178,09 PTS OR 0.65%    /The Nikkei closed UP 178,09 OR 0.65%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .10%%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6,6871    /Oil UP TO 116.15dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 117050 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6871 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6961: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER/

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA/

3B  JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

END

Apple Shifts Ipad Production Out Of China For First Time 

WEDNESDAY, JUN 01, 2022 – 01:05 PM

Even though the Shanghai government announced plans to lift COVID restrictions on Wednesday and reopen the city after two months of lockdowns, Apple has decided to diversify some of its product supply chains out of China.

Nikkia Asia reports that some iPad production will be moved out of Shanghai and surrounding areas to Vietnam for the first time to safeguard against any future supply chain disruptions caused by Beijing’s strict COVID restrictions. 

Apple was already planning future iPad production lines in Vietnam. One of the top iPad assemblers, China’s BYD, assisted the world’s most valuable tech company in building production lines in Vietnam, with series production beginning in small numbers in the near term. 

Apple has already shifted AirPods earbud production to the Southeast Asian country. The iPad would be the second major production line as the company diversifies out of China. 

Besides diversifying its China-centric supply chain, the company has requested suppliers of components, such as semiconductor chips and mechanical and electronics parts based around Shanghai and surrounding regions, to quickly build inventory to mitigate supply chain disruptions for the upcoming release of the new iPhone. 

In particular, Apple is asking suppliers outside of the lockdown-affected areas to help build up a couple of months’ worth of component supplies to ensure supply continuity over the next few months. The requests apply to all of Apple’s product lines — iPhones, iPads, AirPods and MacBooks — sources said.

Ideally, the company hopes these suppliers can prepare enough additional components to fully offset the amount made by those in Shanghai and nearby provinces such as Jiangsu, where the risk of supply chain disruption is higher, according to sources.

“For example, component supplier X has a 40% share of Apple’s business in Jiangsu Province, which is a risky region of supply chain disruption, and supplier Y in another city accounts for the remaining 60% share,” one of the people with direct knowledge of the matter said. “Apple would want supplier Y to build enough additional components to match supplier X’s 40% share in the coming months in case production in Jiangsu is shut down again.”

It would be risky for any tech supplier to fully comply with Apple’s request, considering there are signs of slowing demand for consumer electronics amid looming inflation and rising energy costs, sources said. If Apple does not end up using the extra components, the suppliers could be left holding the bag.

“Those additional stocks prepared for Apple could become a heavy burden for suppliers if the production of other suppliers isn’t disrupted by lockdowns again,” another supply chain executive told Nikkei Asia. The executive added that most suppliers would agree to build some additional stocks as a buffer, but they will “definitely not” increase supplies enough to fully offset their rivals’ shares.

Nikkei Asia reported in early April that semiconductor shortages were threatening the production of some MacBooks and iPads. 

Now it appears Apple is working hard to reduce its supply chain risks; as Goldman Sachs’ equity analyst Allen Chang points out, as Shanghai reopens, “we remain cautious on smartphone/consumer electronics supply chains.” 

Most sources told Nikkei Asia that manufacturing capacity in Shanghai could take at least a couple of months to return to normal levels.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

The US Oil Boycott Of Russia Will Push The Eurozone Into A Recession

WEDNESDAY, JUN 01, 2022 – 01:25 PM

Excerpted from Maartje Wijffelaars, Elwin de Groot and Erik-Jan van Harn of Rabobank (full note available to ZH professional subscribers in the usual place).

Summary

  • On Tuesday night EU leaders agreed to ban all Russian seaborne oil imports
  • The ban, amid already high inflation and intense supply chain pressure, will push the Eurozone into a recession; this confirms our views expressed earlier this year
  • We expect the Eurozone economy to enter a recession by the end 2022/early 2023
  • Helped by carry over effects we still expect the Eurozone economy to grow by 2.2% in 2022, yet to contract with 0.1% in 2023
  • The ban will not lead to lasting energy shortages, but it will take time before Russian oil imports are replaced and oil prices will almost certainly trend higher
  • Our forecast is subject to quite some uncertainty, especially when it comes to the timing and depth of the recession. But, importantly, a grind down is in the works, with neither the ECB nor governments in the position to prevent that

EU leaders agree to ban seaborne oil imports

On Tuesday night, EU leaders agreed to ban all Russian seaborne oil imports. The sixth sanction package, including the details, still needs to be officially signed off, but based on earlier statements, import of Russian crude oil via seaborne shipments is set to be barred from the end of this year. The ban on seaborne import of petroleum products should then become effective about two months later. A “temporary” exception is being made for pipeline imports, to accommodate concerns over energy security for Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. When taking into account that Germany and Poland have said to cut Russian oil imports regardless of the exemption, the current agreement effectively means that about 90% of crude oil imports from Russia would be phased out by the end of the year- which represents around one quarter of total annual crude oil imports in the EU in recent years. It has not yet been agreed how long the exclusion of pipeline oil will last. Importantly, the package will also foresee in a provision to limit re-exports of Russian crude arriving via pipelines and petroleum products based on Russian crude oil.

Eurozone economy to shrink due to energy crisis

The oil boycott pushes us to downgrade our forecast. We had already highlighted this risk in previous research notes. We expect the Eurozone to enter a recession at the end of this year (Figure 1). Combined with carry over effects from the strong second half of 2021 this means that the economy is still set to grow in 2022, yet to contract in 2023. We have pencilled in growth of 2.2% in 2022 and -0.1% in 2023 -compared to, respectively, 2.9% and 1.5% in our previous forecast. Recently we had already lifted our inflation outlook to 7.5% this year and 3.6% next year, based on our expectation of a Russian oil embargo.

Oil embargo will fuel non-Russian oil prices

In our view, the Russian oil embargo will not lead to large lasting energy shortages. Yet adjustments are likely to take time and it will certainly fuel prices of both crude oil and refined petroleum products. In fact, this morning prices of both crude oil and refined petroleum products such as diesel already pushed higher (Figure 3). It is the price of refined petroleum products that is being felt most by households and hauliers and that price has in fact already seen much sharper increases than crude oil since Russia’s  invasion. Driving factors of the so-called crack spread so far have been capacity constraints at refineries worldwide and less imports from Russia. For now, lockdowns in China will continue to cap the price of crude oil, but once China’s lockdowns are lifted, we envisage that the price of crude oil could peak at over $170 a barrel – as can be read in the oil ban scenario analyses we have conducted earlier.

Recession hits once reopening boost fades

In the first quarter of the year the Eurozone economy still managed to grow, with 0.3% q/q – revised upwards from 0.2% q/q. We also expect the growth figure to hold just above the zero- mark in the current quarter, on the back of (i) the grand reopening of the economy, (ii) businesses still working their ways through backlogs, (iii) rather strong labour markets in many Member States, and (iv) excess savings that allow households to absorb part of the higher prices regime.

Moving on to the third quarter, tourism activity is likely to benefit from the seemingly unstoppable drive of many to go on a holiday. Yet it will be ever more difficult for the economy to continue to post positive growth figures, as the boost of reopening fades amid very high inflation and equipment shortages. In our view, government support, already being ramped up across the block, will alleviate some inflation pressure and this should support economic growth by several decimal points. But it will not be able to prevent a downturn. Indeed, we are dealing with a supply shock induced crisis and you simply cannot solve a supply shock by ramping up demand. In fact, broad scale support might even accomplish the opposite, as it could support demand for which there is too limited supply.

Meanwhile, we currently assume China to continue its zero-covid policy, with alternating lockdowns continuing to put pressure on global supply chains. In our projections, we incorporate that it will take until the final quarter of the year for supply chain pressures caused by China to soften materially. We note, however, that China’s reopening -even when gradual- will also feed into higher prices for energy commodities and metals as Chinese demand for these commodities rises.

Supply chain disruptions and rising input prices hurt production

From a supply side perspective, input and equipment shortages are likely to continue to hamper industrial production over the coming quarters, as will increased input prices to the extent that they cannot be fully passed on to customers. In past months, production of energy intensive products in the EU, such as fertilizers, paper, and construction materials, has already been cut back due to elevated energy prices. Meanwhile, in surveys, businesses report lengthening delivery times and record equipment shortages (Figure 4). Important sources of the supply chain disruptions are lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine. We expect input deliveries from China to continue to be hampered for the better part of the year, while we also don’t envisage the end of the war or a reduction in energy price -quite the opposite in fact when it comes to the price of oil, as explained.

On a positive note, the price of natural gas has come down over the past weeks and is almost back at its pre-war level, which should exercise some downward pressure on energy price inflation and support energy intensive production in the Eurozone. That said, it remains very high in historical context and has the potential to trend higher again.

Inflation and uncertainty hurt demand

From a demand side perspective, we expect the sharp and persisting price rises and growing uncertainty (Figure 5) to slowly ‘kill’ households’ ability and willingness to consume. Even though extra savings at European bank accounts accumulated during the pandemic (some 5% of annual GDP) will help to absorb the higher prices, a contraction in consumption is all but a given in our view. Both the magnitude of the inflation and the fact that savings are unequally distributed among households -with a decumulation of savings among low-income households- feed into this view. We foresee consumer spending to contract for several quarters, starting in the third quarter of this year. It usually takes time for higher inflation and uncertainty to translate into lower consumption growth, although the magnitude of both could well speed things up little when compared to history. We also believe that higher input costs and increased pessimism over the outlook will eventually lower the ability and willingness of businesses to invest, create jobs and raise wages.

In addition, over time, increasing financing cost are also expected to bite. Although the ECB still hasn’t raised rates so far, we expect it to start a tightening cycle in July, taking its deposit facility rate back to +0.25% by the end of the year. Market developments since the beginning of the year have already led to a considerable tightening of financial conditions; risk-free government bond yields, term and inflation risk premiums as well as corporate risk premiums have contributed to this. Whilst it could be argued that rates – both at the short and at the long end of the maturity spectrum – have not kept up with actual inflation rates, the fact that the bulk of the rise in inflation is due to a deterioration in the terms of trade, implies that one cannot compare these one for one. Indeed, the marked rise in long-term bond yields even when corrected for higher inflation breakeven rates since end-April underscores the higher interest rate environment. Together with the ongoing uncertainty over the outlook, this is also leading to a tightening of bank credit conditions, in terms of higher borrowing costs as well as a tightening in loan conditions.

As such, whilst higher inflation and supply shortages remain the key drivers of the economic slowdown, the tightening of financial conditions is likely to contribute to an ‘acceleration’ of the economic slowdown as time progresses.

Labor demand to contract

Over the coming months, when demand cools and pessimism among businesses increases, we will likely first witness a reduction in outstanding vacancies. An actual contraction of hours worked will then follow further down the line. To what extent this will lead to layoffs and higher unemployment is rather uncertain, however. Short-time work schemes introduced during the pandemic will very likely limit official employment destruction and the rise in unemployment – and hence income losses. Still, we believe that economic growth and unemployment are not fully disconnected, which is why we project unemployment to increase from 7.2% this year to 7.5% in 2023 and 7.8% in 2024 -compared to 8.6% at the pandemic peak. Meanwhile we project wages to grow by 2.5% on average this year and 3% next year. This clearly is an improvement from the growth of 1.5% in collective wage agreements last year, but is largely insufficient to keep up with inflation. Hence real wages, are set to shrink big time, underscoring our view of contracting consumption further down the line.

Risks to forecast are balanced

We are finding ourselves in uncertain times, yet again. Forecasting a recession, and the timing thereof, is fraught with risks. Whilst the direction of travel is clear to us, the depth of the crisis is less obvious. Indeed, the relationship between inflation, uncertainty and GDP growth is not set in stone -it could either be more or less intense than we currently foresee. Other important sources of uncertainty are the timing and impact of China’s reopening, and of government support in the Eurozone.

Finally, we currently only see it as a tail risk that the EU stops importing Russian gas in the short term or that Russia suddenly fully stops exporting gas to the EU on its own account. Admittedly, Russia has already stopped delivering gas to several smaller customers including Finland and particular providers in Germany and the Netherlands. Yet it would be a real financial blow for itself if  it were to fully cut off large countries such as Italy and Germany, for example. Still, more unforeseen things have happened over the past months and both EU sanctions and Russian countermeasures are clearly a moving target. As such we keep a close eye on developments. In any case, while the recent stop in gas flows is likely to cause some price effect already in the countries hit, the consequences of a sudden full stop in Russian gas inflows in the EU would be much larger.

All in all, then, we regard the risks to our forecast rather balanced. Importantly, a grind down is in the works, with neither the ECB nor governments in the position to prevent that.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/UN/

Iran has no doubt enriched its stock pile of Uranium

(zerohedge)

UN Warns Iran’s Enriched Uranium Stockpile Now 18 Times Imposed Limit

WEDNESDAY, JUN 01, 2022 – 07:00 AM

The UN nuclear watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced Monday that it estimates Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium has grown to more than 18 times limits put in place by the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal with world powers, brokered under Obama.

This includes uranium enriched up to 20%, with the IAEA in a fresh report saying its monitors “estimated that, as of May 15, 2022, Iran’s total enriched stockpile was 3,809.3 kilograms.” The 2015 deal set the ceiling at 300 kilograms. Further the deal, which the US pulled out of in 2018 under the Trump administration, puts enrichment levels at 3.67%.

The report further indicates the amount enriched to 60% is now at 43.1 kilograms. To be considered weapons grade, Iran would have to enrich to about 90%.

But Tehran has long argued that it’s none other than Washington which unilaterally pulled out of the deal, that Iran has held up its end of the bargain. Further Iranian officials argue that its the US side holding up a finalized restored JCPOA. According to the latest statements from Tehran featured in state media:

The US shows no action vis-a-vis Vienna talks, Amir Abdollahian said in a meeting with his Finnish counterpart Pekka Olavi Haavisto on Sunday.

He stressed that the Islamic Republic of Iran is quite serious in reaching a good, strong and sustainable agreement in Vienna.

Earlier this month, the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Ali Shamkhani pointed out that the US must urgently drop anti-Iran sanctions if its hopes to finally secure a deal. “The Vienna talks have reached a stage where the knot can only be untied through the adherence of the violator party to Iran’s logical and principled approaches,” he said.

“The US, by breach of promise, and Europe, by inaction, scuttled the opportunity to benefit from Iran’s proven goodwill. If they have the will to return, we are ready and an agreement is within reach,” Skamkhani added.

But recently, the IAEA has voiced that it’s “extremely concerned” about lack of Iranian communication over possible undeclared nuclear sites:

“I am referring to the fact that we, in the last few months, were able to identify traces of enriched uranium in places that had never been declared by Iran as places where any activity was taking place,” IAEA head Rafael Grossi told a European Parliament Committee.

“The situation does not look very good. Iran, for the time being, has not been forthcoming in the kind of information we need from them… We are extremely concerned about this,” Grossi continued.

Last week, the Israelis presented what they say is evidence proving a calculated inspections evasion process on the part of the Iranians. A major investigative report in The Wall Street Journal alleges that Iran has been covering up its nuclear weapons aspirations for years by allegedly falsifying a document trail with an eye toward covering up past work on a hidden nuclear weapons program… 

“Iran secured access to secret United Nations atomic agency reports almost two decades ago and circulated the documents among top officials who prepared cover stories and falsified a record to conceal suspected past work on nuclear weapons, according to Middle East intelligence officials and documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.”

The records were reportedly obtained from a 2018 covert Israeli intelligence raid on a facility said to contain documented evidence of an alleged ongoing nuclear program, which the Israelis have since handed on to the US for its review. Israel’s leaders are now using the document trove to accuse Iran before a world audience:

It should be noted, however, that these bombshell charges should be evaluated with relevant skepticism and a big grain of salt, given the ‘evidence’ originated with a foreign intelligence service which is Iran’s longtime bitter enemy.

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE/

end

GLOBAL ISSUES/SUPPLY CHAINS

VACCINE MANDATE

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Vaccine Impact


FDA had Data Showing 82% – 97% of Pregnant Women Injected with the Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine Lost Their Babies Before Approving the ShotsMay 31, 2022 2:04 pmAnne Reed of Operation Rescue reported last week that recently released documents from Pfizer that were submitted to the FDA prior to approving their COVID-19 vaccine in early 2021 showed that 82% – 97% of the documented pregnancy outcomes resulted in death in their post-marketing analysis. This is more evidence that Pfizer and the FDA colluded together to conceal damaging data related to the roll out of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines. Back in May of 2021, Operation Rescue published a report from a whistleblower who had examined the Pfizer documents submitted to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) which authorized the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines for emergency use in the UK back in December of 2020, and among those documents (which we assume were also submitted to the FDA but not yet made public) were the results of animal trials showing serious birth defects occurred in rat specimens injected with the vaccines. When the EMA originally authorized the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines, they included a warning about injecting child-bearing women: “For women of childbearing age, pregnancy should be excluded before vaccination.” However, when the FDA issued an EUA for the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines shortly after the EMA, in December of 2020, they did NOT include any warnings for pregnant and child-bearing women. As of the 5/20/2022 release of VAERS data, there have been 4,202 cases recorded of fetal deaths following COVID-19 vaccines for the past 18 months since these vaccines were issued EUAs. By way of contrast, performing the exact same search in VAERS for the previous 30 years (360 months) there were only 2,239 fetal deaths recorded following all FDA-approved vaccines during those 30+ years. That’s a 3,653% increase in dead babies following COVID-19 vaccines, compared to deaths of pre-born children following vaccines for the previous 30+ years.Read More…Local Banks and Credit Unions Beginning to Realize that Implementing Central Bank Digital Currencies will Drive Them Out of BusinessMay 31, 2022 2:25 pmCredit union and banking trade groups have released a joint letter to the chair and ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee, warning of “devastating consequences” if the Federal Reserve moves forward with a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). The fact that credit unions, which frequently serve unionized labor, joined with banking trade groups to sign off on the letter, lends credibility to the “devastating consequences” the letter enumerates of a Central Bank Digital Currency.Read More…

Michael Every//

Michael Every on the day’s most important topics

Rabobank: Did Biden Privately Tell Powell To Pivot In September, Ensuring All Blame Falls On The Fed

WEDNESDAY, JUN 01, 2022 – 12:05 PM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Yesterday I argued US President Biden’s inflation-fighting plan boils down to “rates or nothing.” It seems both he and Treasury Secretary Yellen agree, as following a White House meeting with Fed Chair Powell, the president made clear he fully backs the Fed’s independence and wants to give it “space” to act on high inflation. And little else on the topic.

You can tell just how seriously the White House is taking its role in the inflation crisis because the Powell meeting started at 13:15EST, and by 15:00EST the president was meeting South Korean boyband BTS. I presume they all know their inflation rate is 4.8% y-o-y, and the price of ‘Butter’?

Is that White House hospital pass intended to allow the Fed to pause in September, and then start to cut again? Yellen, talking to CNN, offered a mea culpa in saying, “I was mistaken about inflation’s trajectory,” but again stressed, “The Fed is taking necessary actions,” adding, “I think it’s impossible to rule out more inflationary surprises,” to give them a push towards the incoming bone-crunching tackle. (That is as Bloomberg says ‘China Plans for Years of Covid Zero With Tests on Every Corner’. Sorry, global supply chains.)

The Fed’s Bostic also clarified his comments last week about a “September pause” should not be construed as a “Fed put”. He predicts a significant drop in inflation as we will see a fall in the “willingness to spend freely among certain segments of the population”, with the key PCE deflator measure of price pressures expected to drop back from 6.3% y-o-y to 4.0% by year end – but still twice the level it should be.

Then again, there is a more cynical interpretation of yesterday’s meeting (with Powell, not BTS). Could the White House –which those in the know say was leaning on the Fed last year, as is the US tradition– have publicly stressed the Fed is independent *and* told them to pivot in September, to ensure all the blame falls on Powell?

From here Powell either Volckers or Burns. Either way we see hospitalization-inducing volatility.

After yesterday’s shock Eurozone 8.1% y-o-y CPI print –and with lots more food inflation in the pipeline yet to come– we got more ECB chatter of whether a 50bps step might be needed, and whether the neutral rate is 1.00%, which once looked impossible, or 2.00%, which to many still does. Again it looks to be rates or nothing – although with acronymtastic action to try to keep the Eurozone periphery out of danger.

Ironically, yesterday also saw drops in key commodities. In grains and oilseeds, this was due to thoughts of Russian exports from the Black Sea. Nothing can be ruled in or ruled out, but the removal of Western sanctions on Russia, Moscow’s core demand for letting food flow again, is something that is almost certainly not going to happen. In which case, that agri sell-off is not going to last.

On oil, the impact of the EU’s oil embargo was minor, as was French insistence the next step should be on gas (given it is nuclear-powered, naturellement). What moved markets was the Wall Street Journal reporting some OPEC+ members “are considering the idea of suspending Russia in an oil production deal as Western sanctions hurt the nation’s ability to produce more.” That would open the doors for Saudi Arabia to pump – and so oil prices fell. Yet the Saudis insist that there is already enough oil around and the problem is a lack of refineries.

At time of writing, the market did not appear to have fully digested the other big energy news: Europe, the US, and UK are to stop insuring any vessels carrying Russian oil. That could have a serious impact given the lack of alternatives, and a likely Western backlash if other insurance actors step in to provide insurance. That’s also a hospital pass for central banks.

As an aside, there is lots happening regarding Saudi. They have, pointlessly, flirted with selling some oil in CNY, and Russia’s Lavrov arrives in Riyadh soon. However, they are also reportedly close to a gradual move towards joining the US-initiated Abraham Accords with Israel: the US looking serious about backing off from the Iran nuclear deal was key. They are also talking about soon having the world’s largest horizontal buildings – because with oil where it is, it seems we are back to ‘gold toilets’ cliches.

Meanwhile, New Zealand is clearly moving towards the US. PM Ardern and President Biden just released a joint statement on a ‘21st-Century Partnership’ that makes it 100% clear the Kiwis stand with the West, not as a tongue-in-cheek ‘New Xi-Land’. The key highlights are that:

“Our countries will expand our work in the Pacific on infrastructure, including transportation and information-communications technology; cyber security; maritime security, including combatting illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing; education and skills training; COVID-19 pandemic assistance and global health security; and economic recovery. At the same time, we will promote democratic governance, free and fair elections, media freedom, and transparency; we will increase respect for human rights and the rule of law.”

All of this with deep US coordination.

“We oppose unlawful maritime claims and activities in the South China Sea that run counter to the rules-based international order, particularly UNCLOS. We reiterate our grave concerns regarding the human-rights violations in Xinjiang, and the erosion of rights and freedoms in Hong Kong… We underscore the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and encourage the peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues.”

All the hot-button US issues are now hot for NZ too.

We acknowledge that security and defence will become an ever-more-important focus of our strategic partnership. We look to increase the interoperability of our forces, including through personnel exchanges, co-deployments, and defence trade. Achieving this vision will require robust and sustained commitment to defence in the Pacific. As New Zealand takes delivery of new capabilities, we will look for opportunities for combined operations and to expand our cooperation in other ways. As the security environment in the Indo-Pacific evolves, so must our defence cooperation.”

It’s not joining The Quad – but given the US is aiming for military interoperability with Japan, India, and the UK, it’s not far off. It also means more Kiwi defence spending.

We intend…to explore how we can expand bilateral trade and investment in order to strengthen the security of our supply chains and economic resilience. To that end, the US and New Zealand will resume annual Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) discussions.”

Wellington of course fully backs the new US-initiated IPEF trade structure.

Will the above move Kiwi markets today? No. Will it if we see a bifurcated Indo-Pacific region, and/or China importing much less from New Zealand to push-back against its shift towards the US? Yes – and the risks of that just increased markedly. As such, some might see this statement as a hospital pass: yet not acting geopolitically in the present environment would have been one too.

Likewise, the South China Morning Post says, ‘Europe beefs up trade armory for long-term fight with China. Europe doesn’t fight physically, but boy can it do so in committees, and paper cuts can hurt. The EU is going to address everything ‘China’, from state subsidies to market access, economic coercion to carbon emissions, and forced labor to tech transfer. Europe reportedly sees itself as able to leave the US for dust in these technical areas, doing its bit for the ‘liberal world order’. (As the US oddly once again flirts with the inflation-irrelevant issue of removing China tariffs: but this internal debate may yet end the same way as the Iran deal did.)

That is as Jörg Wuttke, the president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, says the “allure of China” is waning, as foreign businesses consider their options for new investments. Moreover, the EU just upgraded Thursday’s bilateral trade summit with Taiwan to ministerial level.

Will the above move Eurozone markets today? No. Will it if the end-point is a bifurcated world, and/or China importing much less from Europe to push-back? Or if China exports less to it, when supply-side inflation is already an issue? Yes – and the risks of that just increased markedly. As such, some might see this EU statement as a hospital pass: yet not acting geopolitically in the present environment would have been one too.

Today saw the new Aussie government faced with its first immediate crisis: CoreLogic house prices dropped 0.3% m-o-m. I would have expected a housing stimulus package by lunchtime if it was the last lot, but the new ones need to get their email up and running first. Q1 GDP, for which they are not responsible, meanwhile came in at 0.8% q-o-q vs. 0.7% expected and 3.3% y-o-y vs. 3.0%, with upward revisions to back data. So, Aussie rates are going to rise (after everyone else led them there). And Aussie house prices are going to…. [fill in the blank, RBA]. What a hospital pass for PM Albanese(?)

China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI was out today too and was 48.1 vs. 49.0 expected and 46.0 last month. It’s ‘interesting’ to see that it only half echoed the more upbeat official measures, which picked up more in May despite lockdowns.

Not directly linked to any of the above, but also a hospital pass of sorts, an Israeli tech firm has estimated that up to 12% of Twitter users are ‘bots’. Moreover, Pew research says the top 10% of tweeters account for 92% of all tweets, of which 69% are Democrats and only 26% Republicans. Expect to see more from Elon Musk ‘on Twitter’.

end

7. OIL ISSUES//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0714 DOWN 0.0020 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL MIXED

USA/ YEN 129.58   UP 0.846 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2581 DOWN   0.0028

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 4.27 POINTS UP 0.13%

 Hang Sang CLOSED  UP 178.09 PTS OR 0.65%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.10%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL  MIXED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 120.26 PTS OR 0.56%   

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 4.27 PTS UP 0.13% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP  0.10% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  UP 178.09 OR 0.65%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1830.45

silver:$21.60

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 102.02  UP 25  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

 WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.32%  UP 6  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.232% UP 0    AND 0/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.16%// DOWN 8   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.18  UP 5   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.179.%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0647 DOWN  87    or 87 basis points

USA/Japan: 129.99 UP 1.1229  OR YEN UP  122  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2477 DOWN 0.01324 OR 132  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0029 OR 29 BASIS pts  to 1.2666

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.6862  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.6998

TURKISH LIRA:  16.41  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.232

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 9  IN basis points from TUESDAY at  2.931% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.090 UP 3 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 102.53 UP 77   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 76.14 PTS OR 1.00%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 104,38  POINTS OR 1.38%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 43.78 PTS OR 0.37% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 114.50 OR 1.29%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 260.11 PTS OR  1.06%

WTI Oil price 116.22   12: EST

Brent Oil:  117.39   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  61.25  UP 1/4         RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.199

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.659 DOWN   .0075   OR  DOWN 75 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2493 down .01166  or  117 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 130.15 up 1.415//YEN down 1.42 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2638 up .0005 (CDN dollar down 5 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 115.37

Brent OIL:  116.22

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.937 up 10 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.089  up 3  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 16,40

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA///USA/ ROUBLE:  61.50 down  .25/ ROUBLES (ROUBLE up .25  ROUBLES/USA

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 177.02 PTS OR 0.54%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 93.74 PTS OR 0.74%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 25.51 DOWN 0.68 PTS (2.71%

GLD: 172.23 UP 1.09 PTS OR 0.63%

SLV/ 20.13 UP .29 PTS OR 1.46%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks, Bonds, & Bitcoin Dumped As Dimon Doubles-Down On Dour Outlook

WEDNESDAY, JUN 01, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Jamie Dimon’s pessimistic shift from “storm clouds” last week to a “hurricane is down the road”, prompted market weakness shortly after the open…

“That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way,” he added.

“We just don’t know if it’s a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You have to brace yourself.”

It appears Dimon went full ‘Leeroy Jenkins’ with his flip-flop…

Which makes sense since US Macro conditions have notably worsened in the week since he last commented…

Source: Bloomberg

… but other FedSpeak didn’t help with Bostic first…

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, in an exclusive interview with MarketWatch, said his suggestion that the central bank take a September “pause” in its push to raise interest rates should not be construed in any way as a “Fed put,” or belief that the central bank would come to the rescue of markets.

Then Daly…

“I certainly am comfortable to do what it takes to get inflation trending down to the level we need it to be,” Daly said Wednesday in an interview on CNBC.

“What the Fed needs to do — and this is how I am thinking about the economy — is remove the accommodation, but then be open to the data, be data-dependent.”

Then Bullard, repeating his desire to see rates at 3.5%:

“The current U.S. macroeconomic situation is straining the Fed’s credibility with respect to its inflation target,” Bullard said.

“This situation is risking the Fed’s credibility with respect to its inflation target and associated mandate to provide stable prices in the U.S.”

The Fed still has to follow through to ratify the forward guidance previously given, but the effects on the economy and on inflation are already taking hold.”

So, after all that, rate-hike expectations surged back higher (erasing all of Bostic’s dovish dive). So, right now, the market sees three more 50-bp rate hikes, with the first slowdown back to 25 bps coming in November…

Source: Bloomberg

…and that meant stocks, bonds, bitcoin, and banks were all battered lower (in price).

But as always, a magical bid appeared in US equities after Europe closed ramping all the US majors back to unchanged. The Nasdaq went from -0.5% overnight to +1.5% just after the cash open to -1.5% at the European close, all the way back up to unchanged only to fade lower in the last few minutes…

As Goldman’s Chris Hussey noted, peeking under the hood of the S&P 500 today reveals another set of contradictions. Financials are trading lower despite the rise in rates and Health Care and Consumer Staples – two traditionally ‘defensive’ sectors – are also selling off suggesting that investors are not exactly seeking shelter. Conversely, Tech and Consumer Discretionary stocks are outperforming.

Source: Bloomberg

Bond yields and stocks converged today from their post-FOMC Minutes decoupling…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were clubbed like a baby seal today with the short-end drastically underperforming (2Y +12bps, 30Y +4bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve flattened significantly…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar shot higher today amid chaos in the Loonie and a plunge in the euro, testing last week’s highs before sliding back

Source: Bloomberg

Having topped $32k yesterday, Bitcoin was monkeyhammered back down below $30k today…

Source: Bloomberg

Amid the dollar’s spike, gold was chaotic, dumping overnight, then ramping back above $1850…

Oil prices rallied today with WTI erasing the losses from yesterday’s OPEC+ headlines before fading back towards the lows of the day…

The 3-2-1 crack, which approximates turning crude into gasoline and diesel, soared to a new record high of $55.26 today…

Source: Bloomberg

With Gasoline, Diesel, and Jet Fuel all recoupling (at extremes relative to crude) again…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, the Manufacturing Surveys this morning both screamed ‘stagflation’, and The Atlanta Fed’s own GDP forecast was revised down to just +1.3%… as inflation expectations remain at multi-decade highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Get back to work Mr.Powell!

I) / EARLY AFERNOON TRADING/

II)USA data

Job Openings Plunge By Most Since Covid Crash But Remain Stubbornly Elevated With Quits Near Record High

WEDNESDAY, JUN 01, 2022 – 10:53 AM

After recent reports that the US labor market had suddenly hit a brick wall, with mass layoffs surging…

… and job openings according to third-party trackers such as Revello showing that total job postings plunged by 22.5%, the biggest change on record…

… many were looking to see if these dismal trends would be confirmed by today’s closely watched JOLTs report, arguably the Fed’s favorite indicator of labor market softness (or tightness as the case is right now).

That did not happen, and instead the two-month delayed JOLTS report showed that in April, job openings did plunge by a whopping 455K, the biggest one month drop since the covid crash, but the drop was from an upward revised, and even higher record 11.855 million in March, to 11.4 million, the third highest on record.

According to the report, the largest decreases in job openings were in health care and social assistance (-266,000), retail trade (-162,000), and accommodation and food services (-113,000). The largest increases were in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+97,000); nondurable goods manufacturing (+67,000); and durable goods manufacturing (+53,000).

What is just as remarkable, is that despite one of the biggest drops in job openings on record, the continued tightening in the labor market, there was a whopping 5.4  million more vacant jobs than unemployed workers in April (nearly double the 5.9 million total unemployed workers), confirming that the US labor market remains extremely tight.

And with far more job openings than unemployed workers, this meant that in April there were again less than 1 unemployed workers – a near-record low 0.52 to be exact – for every job opening.

With the number of job openings tumbling, it is not surprising that the number of hires also shrank, dropping from a downward revised 6.645MM to 6.586MM in April. According to the BLKS, hires increased in real estate and rental and leasing (+21,000).

One last observation comes from the April quits rate: after the number of Americans quitting their job hit an all time high 4.536 million in March, this number was since revised lower to 4.449 million, and the April print was 25K lower. Still, the 4.424 Million in April quits was one of the highest on record, and yet another indication that at least as recently as April, workers had all the leverage and were happy to quit their job in search of better paying options elsewhere, hardly the stuff that indicates that wage-price spiral is about to end.

end

Atlanta Fed Slashes Q2 GDP Forecast As Stagflation Looms

WEDNESDAY, JUN 01, 2022 – 01:59 PM

Amid a wall of relatively hawkish Fed Speak today (all pronouncing the economy’s ‘underlying strength’), this morning’s Manufacturing survey data raised the threat level for stagflation and prompted The Atlanta Fed to slash its forecast for Q2 GDP growth from +1.9% to +1.3%… getting ever closer to recession (after Q1’s contraction).

As The Atlanta Fed writesthe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 1.3 percent on June 1, down from 1.9 percent on May 27.

After this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, and this morning’s construction spending report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth declined from 4.7 percent and -6.4 percent, respectively, to 4.4 percent and -8.2 percent, respectively.

Which fits with JHamie Dimon’s ‘downgrade’ of the economy from “storm clouds” to “hurricane”…

“That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way,” he added.

“We just don’t know if it’s a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You have to brace yourself.”

This makes some sense given the recent collapse in macro data relative to expectations…

And longer-term, the trend towards stagflation could not be clearer…

And thus increasingly problematic for The Fed, as the jawboning is driving rate-hike expectations higher once again…

Meaning The Fed is hiking rates into a recession.

END

Beige Book Shows Fed Quietly Freaking Out About Widespread Economic Slowdown

WEDNESDAY, JUN 01, 2022 – 02:57 PM

A little over a month after the Fed’s April Beige Book found that the US economy was growing at a “moderate pace”, and spotted the first instances of demand destruction and slowing wage growth, things have gone from medicore at best to simply dire.

Not that one would necessarily get that sense reading the summary of overall economic activity which was relatively cheerful, with the Fed noting that all twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported “continued economic growth since the prior Beige Book period, with a majority indicating slight or modest growth” and four Districts indicated moderate growth. To be sure, it is notable that the Fed admitted that four Districts explicitly noted that the pace of growth had slowed since the prior period, even as contacts in most Districts reported ongoing growth in manufacturing.

On the other hand, a glimpse of the real underlying weakness emerged when the Fed warned that “some softening as consumers faced higher prices, and residential real estate contacts observed weakness as buyers faced high prices and rising interest rates.” Still, contacts tended to cite “labor market difficulties as their greatest challenge, followed by supply chain disruptions” in other words, the covid/China legacy bottlenecks remain, even though soaring inflation is finally destroying the most demand in years. And indeed, “rising interest rates, general inflation, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and disruptions from COVID-19 cases (especially in the Northeast) round out the key concerns impacting household and business plans.”

Most ominous of all, whereas eight Districts reported that expectations of future growth among their contacts had diminished; “contacts in three Districts specifically expressed concerns about a recession.” And if the Fed will state that publicly, it means that all 12 Fed districts are starting to freak out.

Some more details from the reports, starting with Labor Markets

  • Most Districts reported that employment rose modestly or moderately in a labor market that all Districts described as tight.
  • One District explicitly reported that the pace of job growth had slowed, but some firms in most of the coastal Districts noted hiring freezes or other signs that market tightness had begun to ease.
  • However, worker shortages continued to force many firms to operate below capacity. In response, firms continued to deploy automation, offer greater job flexibility, and raise wages.
  • In a majority of Districts, firms reported strong wage growth, whereas most others reported moderate growth.
  • However, in a few Districts, firms noted that wage rate increases were leveling off or edging down.
  • Moreover, while firms throughout the country generally anticipate wages to rise further over the next year, one District indicated that its firms’ expected rate of wage growth has fallen for two consecutive quarters.

And moving on to prices, where demand destruction is starting to really ramp up:

  • Most Districts noted that their contacts had reported strong or robust price increases – especially for input prices.
  • Two Districts noted that this rapid inflation was a continuation of trend; however, three Districts observed that price increases for their own goods or services had moderated somewhat – across the board (among Philadelphia firms) or for some segments (used cars in Boston and manufacturing in Richmond).
  • About half of the Districts observed that many contacts maintained pricing power – passing costs on to clients and consumers, often with fuel surcharges. However, more than half of the Districts cited some customer pushback, such as smaller volume purchases or substitution of less expensive brands.
  • Surveys in two Districts pegged year-ahead increases of their selling prices as ranging from 4 to 5 percent; moreover, one District noted that its firms’ price expectations have edged down for two consecutive quarters.

Elsewhere, several months of improvement (i.e. reduction) in mentions of shortages, recall that the March Beige Book saw a modest deterioration, with “mentions” of shortage rising from 55 in January to 60 in March. Well, in April the word “shortage” was used just 52 times, the fewest since April of 2021, and that number dropped again in June to just 41. It appears that supply-chains, at least from the Fed’s perspective, are no longer broken.

However, while the easing in shortages was more than offset by another month of sharply higher mentions of the word “rising”, which was used no less than 55 times, almost double the 32 times in March and just shy of the record 57 recorded last month – – usually in the context of prices or joblessness…

… it was a new word that caught our attention in June. As shown below, instances of the word “slow” and its variants exploded to 62, more than doubling from 27 in April, and surpassing the economic collapse levels observed in Q1 2022.

That’s right: while the Fed won’t openly admit it – after all doing so would be tantamount to losing all credibility and seeing stocks explode at a time when Biden is pressuring Powell to crash stocks and spark deflation – the central bank is openly freaking out about the coming recession. One just has to read between the lines, or rather the lines, to figure it out. We expect the broader market will do so shortly.

Source: Beige Book

END

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

END.

iii)a.  USA economic stories

This could hurt the uSA terribly if they went on strike

(Solomon/Freightwaves)

Teamsters, Car-Haulers Go Down To The Wire In Contract Talks As Trucker Strike Looms

WEDNESDAY, JUN 01, 2022 – 07:25 AM

By Mark Solomon of FreightWaves

Car-hauling companies and the Teamsters union went down to the wire Tuesday to reach a collective bargaining agreement and avert a nationwide strike that could start as soon as a minute after midnight on Wednesday.

In a Facebook post late Monday night, lead negotiators of the Teamsters’ Carhaul division, meeting in Romulus, Michigan, appeared optimistic that a contract could be agreed to by midnight Tuesday.

“It’s going to be a good contract,” said Avril Thompson, Carhaul division director and co-chair of the Teamsters National Automobile Transporters Industry Negotiating Committee (TNATINC). 

The weekend before last, about 6,000 drivers and maintenance workers in the U.S. and Canada covered by the National Master Automobile Transporters Agreement (NMATA) voted overwhelmingly to authorize a strike should a contract agreement not be reached before Wednesday. 

A one-year extension to the original 2016 contract expires at midnight Tuesday. Union officials have repeatedly said it will not be extended. The NMATA dates to the 1940s.

The extension came about after the division concluded in spring 2021 that the pandemic’s impact on the economy made effective bargaining difficult. 

Employers have agreed to language in the new contract that would make it extremely difficult to subcontract union work, a step that Thompson called “huge.” The current proposal contains more than two dozen changes that will benefit workers, negotiators said in the post.

Should union officials agree to a new contract, both sides are likely to extend the one-year agreement to allow time for information to be distributed and for the rank and file to vote, said Ken Paff, national organizer of the Teamsters for a Democratic Union (TDU), a Teamster dissident group. If the negotiating committee rejects the proposal, a strike would occur, Paff said.

The national contract covers workers at Kansas City, Missouri-based Jack Cooper Transport, Edwardsville, Illinois-based Cassens Transport and five smaller carriers. Jack Cooper filed for bankruptcy protection in August 2019 but emerged less than three months later.

Car haulers have long been considered among the most skilled of over-the-road truck drivers. They haul extremely high-value cargoes that are prone to damage, and face delivery challenges that go well beyond the traditional dock-bumping in which drivers engage. Spatial skills are required for organizing cars and trucks on the haulers and the training takes months, according to non-union car hauler United Road in Plymouth, Michigan. 

In recent years, however, union carriers have been undercut on price by lower-cost, non-union rivals. Truckers also face stiff competition from the nation’s railroads. In the U.S., the rail industry transports about three-quarters of all new cars and trucks, according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR).

A nationwide walkout of auto transport workers is the last thing that U.S. automakers need after dealing with two years of supply chain shortages that have curbed production and, by extension, sales. 

About 15.2 million light vehicles will be produced in North America in 2022, according to projections from S&P Global. That is 12.7% above the estimated 12.9 million in 2021. Production is expected to reach about 17.2 million units in 2023, according to the forecasts. The data includes production in the U.S., Canada and Mexico.

iii b USA//inflation stories/log jams etc/

END

iv)swamp stories

King REPORT

The King Report June 1, 2022 Issue 6771Independent View of the News
The European Union Consumer Price Index for May increased 0.83% m/m and 8.10% y/y.
 
Eurozone Inflation Rises to 8.1% in May
Energy prices rose 39.2%, compared with 37.5% in April… Food, alcohol and tobacco prices rose 7.5% year-on-year in May, compared with 6.3% in April… The core consumer price index–which excludes the more volatile categories of food and energy–rose 3.8% on year in May after rising 3.5% the previous month. This figure was above the 3.5% forecast by economists in a Wall Street Journal poll…
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/eurozone-inflation-rises-to-8-1-in-may-271653987605
 
Home prices surged at record pace in March despite higher mortgage rates
U.S. home values jumped 20.6% in March from the year before, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index…  https://yhoo.it/3PSLdFn
 
@MNIIndicators: Chicago May Biz Barometer’s special question asked firms what their three greatest challenges to conducting business are. (Increased Costs 80.85%, Delivery & Lead Times 68.09%, Material Shortages 61.7%, Labor Shortages 46.81%, Declining Economic Sentiment 21.28%, Increased Demand 8.51%) https://t.co/vpPbU84uvm
 
Biden Seek to Deflect Inflation Blame with Rate Fed Meeting – BBG
Biden has been attempting to show he’s maximizing efforts to curb the hottest inflation in 40 years heading into November midterms… https://themediacoffee.com/biden-seeks-to-deflect-inflation-blame-with-rare-fed-meeting/
 
Bloomberg Economics (@economics): Biden will use his meeting Tuesday with Fed Chair Jay Powell to stress that he’s giving the central bank “space to operate” independently to address the inflation crisis https://t.co/deav05mwLq
 
For over 100 years, Americans were told that the Fed operated independently from politicians.  The Big Guy and his handlers just dispelled that notion.
 
Boston Univ. issues largest tuition increase (4.25%) in 14 years, blames inflation https://t.co/ArVhilbxm1
 
WTI Oil surged to 119.98 at 9:27 ET.  It then plunged to 114.15 at 14:00 ET on this from the WSJ:
 
OPEC Weighs Suspending Russia from Oil-Production Deal
Exempting Russia from its oil-production targets could potentially pave the way for Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other producers in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to pump significantly more crude… https://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-weighs-suspending-russia-from-oil-production-deal-11654019943
 
USMs cratered when the US cash bond market opened at 8 ET.  USMs tumbled to 138 22/32, a 2 8/32 decline from Friday’s close. 
 
ESMs traded higher during early Asian trading but commenced a decline at 20:16 ET.  ESMs sank to a session low of 4102.75 at 10:09 ET (-99.50 from the high of 4202.25).  Then, as we have seen repeatedly over the past few years, someone forced ESMs higher.  It was yet another instance of equities tumbling during early US trading and then rallying sharply thereafter.  Part of the rally was manipulation to game dreadful May performance.  Part of the rally might be due to someone forcing stocks higher ahead of The Big Guy’s inflation-related meeting with Powell. 
 
ESMs peaked at 14:00 ET, 15 minutes prior to meeting.  ESMs then sank to 4125.00 at 14:53 ET, a 41.25 tumble from the 14:00 ET top.
@LizYoungStrat 14:50 ET: Intraday breadth is uninspiring today. Despite the S&P 500 only being down 0.2%, 70% of stocks in the index are down. Cons Discretionary and Communications are being propped up by AMZN & GOOG/GOOGL
 
The critical manipulation to embellish May performance commenced at 15:03 ET.  ESMs jumped 25 handles in 14 minutes.  Another 7 handles were tacked on by 15:33 ET.  Alas, traders that bought stuff for the expected late manipulation had to dump stuff when there were few late buyers.  ESMs sank 27.00.
 
BBG’s @SalehaMohsin: (Biden chief econ advisor) Deese gives a readout on the Biden-Powell meeting:
“It was a very constructive meeting focused on the outlook for the US and the global economy.  I won’t go into detail of the private meeting…”
 
CNBC host pushes back against Biden admin’s plan for inflation: ‘None of those will fix things’ in short term – CNBC host told Biden economic adviser his plan wouldn’t address ‘skyrocketing’ prices
https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnbc-host-pushes-back-biden-plan-inflation?intcmp=tw_fnc
 
WSJ: Joe Biden: My Plan for Fighting Inflation – I won’t meddle with the Fed, but I will tackle high prices while guiding the economy’s transition to stable and steady growth.
    My plan has three parts: First, the Federal Reserve has a primary responsibility to control inflation…Second, we need to take every practical step to make things more affordable for families during this moment of economic uncertainty—and to boost the productive capacity of our economy over time…That is why I led the largest release from global oil reserves in history…We can also reduce the cost of everyday goods by fixing broken supply chains, improving infrastructure, and cracking down on the exorbitant fees that foreign ocean freight companies charge to move products…
    Third, we need to keep reducing the federal deficit… (No WIN (Whip Inflation Now) buttons?)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/my-plan-for-fighting-inflation-joe-biden-gas-prices-economy-unemployment-jobs-covid-11653940654
 
Toyota misses April global production target due to COVID, parts shortage
The world’s largest automaker by sales produced 692,259 vehicles last month, a 9.1% drop from the same month last year, and falling short of an earlier plan of making about 750,000 vehicles worldwide…
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota-misses-april-global-production-target-due-covid-parts-shortage-2022-05-30/
 
China faces a nearly $1 trillion funding gap. It will need more debt to fill it.
“The latest wave of Omicron and the widespread lockdowns in place since mid-March have resulted in a sharp contraction in government revenue, including land sales revenue,” …
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/31/china-faces-a-nearly-1-trillion-funding-gap-it-will-need-more-debt-to-fill-it.html
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Another robust rally, abetted by May performance gaming, after an early equity tumble in the US
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Despite the manipulation, major equity indices declined sharply for the day
Bonds tumbled
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
WTI Oil soared then collapsed – WHY?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4135.12
Previous session High/Low4168.34; 4104.88
 
@Dollarlogic: The top 10% of Chinese earn 14.5x the bottom 50%. The top 10% of Americans earn 5x the bottom 50%. Sources: South China Morning Post, Tax Foundation, and Policy Advice
 
Fauci, Harvard and the CCP – Was a Fauci-endorsed Chinese donation part of the lab-leak cover up?
The Chinese real estate firm on whose behalf George Daley had contacted Fauci pledged a $115 million donation to Harvard Medical School
   No more than two days after the Fauci-Gao call and the announcement of Evergrande’s donationDaszak began asking prominent scientists to sign a letter condemning the lab-leak hypothesis as a conspiracy theory and affirming a scientific consensus on the pandemic’s origins… the letter would be frequently cited by media outlets that sought to discredit the lab-leak theory for over a year…
     There is little doubt that George Daley and Anthony Fauci… would have understood the distinction between working with a Chinese lab or vaccine program and taking enormous sums from a private real estate behemoth with ties to the CCP. Yet not only did Daley apparently seek to involve Fauci in this deal but Fauci — as Daley himself would later go on record to say — went so far as to “endorse” it. The question all this provokes is, again, why?…
    “Harvard has a special, extremely special status in China,”… The $115 million donation to Harvard Medical School came at a critical moment. For nine of the previous ten years, HMS had run a staggering deficit. Despite Harvard’s gargantuan endowment, the university famously uses a financial practice known as “every tub on its own bottom”, meaning each school is responsible for its own bottom line…  https://spectatorworld.com/topic/fauci-harvard-and-the-ccp/
 
Biden sees exodus of Black staffers and some frustration among those who remain (racism alert!)
At least 21 Black staffers have left the White House since late last year or are planning to leave soon…
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/31/biden-white-house-black-staffers-00035931
 
NBC: Inside a Biden White House adrift (NBC makes excuses for Joe’s woeful presidency)
Amid a rolling series of calamities and sinking approval ratings, the president’s feeling lately is that he just can’t catch a break — and that angst is rippling through his party… President Joe Biden is pressing aides for a more compelling message and a sharper strategy while bristling at how they’ve tried to stifle the plain-speaking persona that has long been one of his most potent assets
     Biden is unhappy about a pattern that has developed inside the West Wing. He makes a clear and succinct statement — only to have aides rush to explain that he actually meant something else. The so-called clean-up campaign, he has told advisers, undermines him and smothers the authenticity that fueled his riseWorse, it feeds a Republican talking point that he’s not fully in command.
     The issue came to a head when Biden ad-libbed during a speech in Poland that Russian President Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power.” Within minutes, Biden’s aides tried to walk back his comments, saying he hadn’t called for Putin’s removal and that U.S. policy was unchanged. Biden was furious that his remarks were being seen as unreliable, arguing that he speaks genuinely and reminding his staff that he’s the one who is president…
    Biden’s angst is rippling through the party. Democratic lawmakers are sparring among themselves and blaming the White House for their dim prospects in November. Rep. Stephanie Murphy, D-Fla., said the White House has failed to put forward what she called an “intellectually honest” plan to combat inflation — a burden that ranks first among Americans’ economic concerns, polling indicates…
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-white-house-adrift-rcna30121?s=02
 
NBC does NOT mention all the stupid stuff Biden utters or his ‘moments’ of incoherence.  NBC appears to be trying to make the case that The Big Guy’s problems are due to his handlers preventing Joe from speaking freely – despite the WH dressing an aide as the Easter Bunny to save Joe from himself!
 
Jill and Joe Biden reveal ‘Fexting’ — but may not know term’s obscene roots (Peril of acting cool!)
Jill, 70, told Harper’s Bazaar Monday that she and her hubby hash out their “occasional” fights via text message, describing the act as “fexting.”  But while the Bidens might think the slang term is a cute amalgamation of the words “fighting” and “texting,” Urban Dictionary defines the word as a crude colloquialism that actually means “f –ing while texting.”… https://trib.al/I2QMp6S
 
Biden’s June agenda: convince Americans the economy is healthy (Heed Joe, not your checkbooks!)
Biden is planning a media blitz to lift his sagging opinion poll numbers before November’s congressional election, promoting his management of America’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic and efforts to cool spiraling inflation  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bidens-june-agenda-convince-americans-190320077.html
 
@RNCResearch: “I’ll take responsibility instead of blaming others.” — Joe Biden, 2020
 
Top-Paid LA Lifeguards Earned Up To $510,283 In 2021
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/top-paid-la-lifeguards-earned-510283-2021
 
@HumOnTheMarkets: SPX ended up 0.22 POINTS this month. That’s up 0.0053% – it’s smallest monthly pct move (up or down) since it was exactly unchanged in Sept 1979.  But May was hardly a snoozer. At its peak, SPX was up 4.3% for May. At its low, it was down 7.8%.
 
Today – Some traders will play for expected start-of-June buying near or on the close.  Some traders might be concerned that the Fed is scheduled to commence quantitative tightening (QT) today.
 
The absence of buyers to absorb traders’ longs near the end of May close is a warning for bulls.  4100 on the S&P 500 Index is important support.  The low yesterday was 4104.88. 
 
ESMs are +20.75 at 20:30 ET on buying for the expected rally to start June.
 
Expected Economic Data: May ISM Mfg 54.5, Prices Paid 80.5; April JOLTS Job Openings 11.3m; May Wards Vehicle Sales 13.7m; Fed Beige Book 14:00 ET, NY Fed Pres Williams 11:30 ET, StL Fed Pres Bullard 13:00 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4270; 100-day MA: 4351; 150-day MA: 4457; 200-day MA: 4455
DJIA 50-day MA: 33,594; 100-day MA: 34,066; 150-day MA: 34,641; 200-day MA: 34,707
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 5023.97 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4359.32 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3939.45 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4083.24 riggers a sell signal
 
51 people shot over Memorial Day weekend in Chicago, the most violent in five years
https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2022/5/29/23146412/chicago-shootings-memorial-day-weekend
 
@ArtValley818_: Did the media report what type of guns were used to shoot over 50 people over the weekend in Chicago?
 
Chicago is beset with unimaginable gun violence despite strict gun laws – because existing laws are not enforced; the urban family structure has collapsed; and judges are exceedingly lenient on sentencing and bail.  New laws would be futile.  Most of the gun violence is committed by juveniles and criminals (many out on bail) that are banned from owning guns.  Where is the MSM, Dem & Big Guy outrage?
 
Armored car driver (Chgo) who stole $537,000 worth of coins gets probation (skewed risk/reward)
https://cwbchicago.com/2022/05/armored-car-driver-who-stole-537000-worth-of-coins-gets-probation.html
 
Video shows shoplifters brazenly clearing shelves of LA Sephora store (skewed risk/reward)
https://trib.al/mmkcgdT
 
@JoeBiden: It’s long past time we take action to end the scourge of gun violence in America. As president, I’ll ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, implement universal background checks, and enact other common-sense reforms to end our gun violence epidemic. 1:00 PM Nov 1, 2020
 
Biden says gun control up to Congress: ‘I can’t dictate this stuff’
https://thehill.com/news/administration/3505996-biden-says-gun-control-up-to-congress-i-cant-dictate-this-stuff/
 
@ChadPergram: McConnell on guns: We have a group led by Senator Cornyn and Senator Murphy on the Democratic side discussing how we might be able to come together to target the problem, mental illness and school safety. We’ll get back at it next week and hope to have a result.
 
@PhilipWegmann: White House dismisses GOP calls to boost school security post Texas shooting: @PressSec tells reporters “I know there’s been conversation about hardening schools–that is not something he believes in.”
 
@mattdizwhitlock: Not helpful.  “Hardening schools” is a likely piece in any potential legislative package and Biden’s team is blowing up negotiations they’re not even involved in.
 
Americans blame mental health more than guns for mass shootings
“40% of likely U.S. voters believe mental health is more to blame for mass shootings by young men in America,” whereas 30% blame “access to firearms.”… 10% “think family problems are more to blame for mass shootings,” while another 10% “blame social media.”…
https://justthenews.com/nation/states/center-square/poll-americans-blame-mental-health-more-guns-mass-shootings
 
Uvalde cops DID know kids were alive in classroom with gunman: Damning footage captures child victim saying they had been shot and shooter had entered class – when police chief insisted the kids were dead – contradicts previous claims that police didn’t enter the building because they considered Ramos ‘a barricaded subject’ who didn’t pose a risk to students…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10871737/New-footage-reveals-Uvalde-cops-KNEW-kids-alive-room-gunman.html
 
Fox: Pete Arredondo, the Uvalde school district police chief, has reportedly not responded to Texas Rangers in two days for a follow-up interview
 
@JackPosobiec: They’re covering something up in Uvalde. Everyone knows it.
 
Canada introduces law to freeze handgun sales, ban look-alike toys http://reut.rs/3z23Pgm
 
Canada to decriminalize cocaine and MDMA for three years amid an overdose crisis: Move aims to encourage drug addicts to seek help and free up police time (Ban guns, anesthetize the masses)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10872439/Canada-temporarily-decriminalize-certain-drugs-BC.html
 
@newsmax: BILL BARR: “I think whatever you think of Trump the fact is the whole Russiagate thing was a grave injustice.” https://t.co/ndt3eCroVO
 
@DineshDSouza: If cell phone geotracking can be reliably used by the Biden DOJ to establish if a January 6 defendant was inside or outside the door of the Capitol, why can’t it be reliably used to establish if mules were within a few feet of 10 or more ballot dropboxes? #2000Mules
 
Teacher used LGBTQ flash cards to educate preschoolers about colors https://trib.al/5EOinOb
A North Carolina teacher used LGBTQ-themed flashcards – including one depicting a pregnant man – to teach preschoolers colors, lawmakers and district officials said… (Indoctrination & grooming)
 
I Listened to 43 HOURS of Joe Biden Clips From 1986-2018 Looking for His “Childhood Stutter”
After all, Joe’s cognitive issues have weighed heavily on the country. Polling here and here shows most Americans believe Joe Biden isn’t mentally fit to hold office.   But the media and Dems repeatedly tell us it’s just a “childhood stutter”…
     He can also be very warm, and extremely kind, but look out if you say the wrong thing and make him mad — he will go “Jekyll and Hyde” on you so fast, it’ll make your head spin. Joe’s always had a quick and hot temper…
    Back in the 80s, Joe was a really affable, idealistic guy who was popular on the left and right… “The longer Joe stayed in politics, the more crass and cynical he became. His charming self-deprecating humor gave way to a braggadocios persona and his wide-eyed idealism turned into narcissistic entitlement…
    Joe Biden, while not the most eloquent or inspiring speaker, was actually a pretty good talker… When Joe spoke, he was prepared. He had his facts straight, and he always addressed or acknowledged all the people he needed to in the room…
      Joe actually talked extensively about his childhood stutter… By 1960 Joe says he was nearly cured of the childhood stutter… After watching 43 hours of clips, had I not known Joe Biden had a “childhood stutter,” I would have never pegged him as a guy with a stuttering problem in his past.   But the media has relentlessly pushed this “stutter story” since Joe’s cognitive issues came to light during the 2020 campaign…  https://www.revolver.news/2022/05/joe-biden-supposed-childhood-stutter/
 
Ex-Hillary Clinton campaign lawyer Sussmann found not guilty of lying to FBI (DC/Dem jury)
https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/jury-sussmann-trial-continues-deliberations
 
@TomFitton: Why did DC jury acquit Sussmann?  Politics aside, simplest answer is the evidence-which suggested the Obama FBI leadership knew full well the Clinton gang was behind the Alfa Bank-Russia smears of Trump. Durham tried to pretend Obama FBI was a victim. It was a co-conspirator.
 
@bennyjohnson: Durham did not push for the recusal of Judge Chris Cooper in Sussman case despite:
– Cooper being professional friends with Sussmann, – Cooper’s wife represented former FBI lawyer Lisa Page, – Cooper and his wife were married by Merrick Garland (!!!) – Cooper appointed by Obama
 
@UndeadFoia: One juror said she hates Trump and couldn’t be impartial if it related to him…
 
@EricMMatheny: How did the DOJ allow the Judge to seat Clinton donors on the Sussman Jury? When I was a prosecutor, we used to cause challenge anyone who had a relative who was a police officer just to avoid the possibility of bias. Did Durham want to lose? Was this just for show?
 
The acquittal is no surprise. This is a DC jury, after all. In the Roger Stone case, for example, we documented how a juror lied to get on the panel. (That judge didn’t care.) Making matters worse, the Sussmann judge wrongly allowed for a woman to remain on the jury, despite the fact that her daughter and Sussmann’s are on the same high school crew team… On the facts, there was more than sufficient evidence to prove Sussmann’s guilt…  https://technofog.substack.com/p/michael-sussmann-has-been-acquitted
 
@JeffMordock: Juror to media after Sussmann verdict: “I don’t think it should have been prosecuted,” she said of the case. “There are bigger things that affect the nation than a possible lie to the FBI.”
 
@HansMahnLeadership” is Woke, our Country is going to HELL, and Michael Sussmann is not guilty …”
 
@ElectionWiz: When Republicans win back the Congress, they should use their constitutional power to disestablish the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. Send the cases to the federal courts in VA and MDGiving D.C. its own district court has been a disaster for justice. It’s sad that the location of where Sussman was tried changed the outcome of the case. But that’s Washington D.C. courts and D.C. jury pools. They’re tainted to the point where fair trials don’t exist. Reform is needed.
 
@AjitPai: A California appeals court has ruled that bees are “fish” for purposes of the state’s endangered species act.  https://www.courts.ca.gov/opinions/documents/C093542.PDF
 
Compton city councilman, 5 others charged with election fraud in runoff that was decided by 1 vote
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/compton-city-councilman-5-others-charged-with-election-fraud-in-runoff-that-was-decided-by-1-vote/amp/
 
Prof. @wil_da_beast630: A good way to sum up the modern left is that, as racism has decreased 90% (Kaufman 2021), mass media discussion of it has increased 1,000+% (Goldberg 2019-20).
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/social-construction-racism-united-states-EK.pdf
 
@chasbottom: Oak Park & River Forest in Illinois to implement race-based grading system in 2022-23 school year. “Students of color can’t be expected to compete with the current grading systems.” https://t.co/NWZdHjZef6

Greg Hunter interviewing Alex Neumann

Deep State Predators Need to Terrify Everyone – Alex Newman

By Greg Hunter On June 1, 2022 In Political Analysis12 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 

Author of the popular book “Deep State” and award-winning journalist Alex Newman says Deep State globalists are afraid the world is waking up to the tyranny they are trying to impose on every country on earth including America.  Things are not going as smoothly into their so-called reset as they had envisioned.  Newman explains, “The Deep State is in a ‘do or die’ moment right now.  They, the elites or predator class, recognize that they are now locked into this.  If they try to retreat, there is no retreat.  People are waking up at such a rapid rate that they are in a moment where they are going to have to go for broke and try to impose the whole agenda and damn the torpedoes and full speed ahead or they are going to be in big trouble.  They are going to be prosecuted.  Right this moment, there are conversations in state attorney generals’ offices all across the country, and this is a problem.  People are demanding prosecution. . . . Right now, the elites, or predator class, realize if they don’t move forward very quickly, they are going to lose everything.  They could possibly end up facing true accountability.  I think we are in a very dangerous situation now.  When people get into a position like that, they don’t have a whole lot of options.  Either they cancel the election or they cheat like crazy or they just collapse everything.  The way things are going right now with inflation out of control, the food crisis and famine just around the corner, of course, that they engineered, and the monkey pox and bird flu, they have all there crises lined up. . . . You realize they have a lot of options still to play.  I suspect there will be some very interesting developments between now and the mid-term elections.  If we had honest elections, they would be totally creamed.  They would be toast, and they know that.”

Newman thinks the next move by the Deep State may be a combination of crises that could include the collapse of the buying power of the U.S. dollar and a food crisis that is already a lock in the not-so-distant future.  Newman warns, “What’s going on in Russia and Ukraine, we cannot count out.  There is a very real prospect of that expanding. . . . Desperate people do desperate things.  This is just like with an animal that has been backed into a corner.  When you get an animal in that situation, they are really left with few options other than attack and do something dangerous, and I think that is where we are at.  They recognize that they need crises to advance their agenda.  They need to terrify the population. . . . and it has to be done in a way that their finger prints are not on this, and instead of people turning on each other, they will start looking for them.”

Newman says, “The country can be turned around and it needs to be turned around, but it’s going to take work . . . and maybe intervention by the Good Lord.”  Newman closes by saying, “There is no silver bullet.”

There is much more in the 49 min. video interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with hard hitting journalist Alex Newman, founder of LibertySentinel.org and author of the recent book “Deep State.”

(https://usawatchdog.com/deep-state-predators-need-to-terrify-everyone-alex-newman/)

After the Interview:


 

SEE YOU TOMORROW

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