JUNE 8/GOLD UP $4.75 TO $1853.95//SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TO $22.07//PLATINUM DOWN 90 CENTS TO $1011.30//PALLADIUM DOWN $31.50 TP $1951.90//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT//IVERMECTIN UPDATES//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA UPDATES//YEN CRASHES AND THUS INFLATION RIPPING THROUGH JAPAN//EURO ZONES INTEREST RATES BLOW OUT//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

JUNE 8 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1853.95 UP $4.75 

SILVER: $22.07 DOWN  $.08

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1852.20

SILVER: $22.05

Bitcoin morning price:  $30,420 UP 227

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $30,121  DOWN 72  

GOLD;  $1847.60 

Platinum price: closing DOWN $0.90 to $1011.30

Palladium price; closing DOWN $31.50  at $1951.90

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX EXCHANGE: 710/980

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JUNE 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,847.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/07/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 06/09/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


118 C MACQUARIE FUT 15
323 C HSBC 29
323 H HSBC 98
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 14
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 20
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 11
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 36
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 6
661 C JP MORGAN 710
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 4
690 C ABN AMRO 4
700 C UBS 19
709 C BARCLAYS 960
709 H BARCLAYS 11
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 2
800 C MAREX SPEC 14 4
905 C ADM 3


TOTAL: 980 980
MONTH TO DATE: 19,980

no. of contracts issued by JPMorgan:  

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JUNE CONTRACT 980  NOTICE(S) FOR 980,000 Oz//3.048  TONNES)

total notices so far: 19,980 contracts for 1,998,000 oz (62.196 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

63 NOTICE(S) FILED 315,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  1565  :  for 7,825,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $4.75

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS

AT THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://NO CHANGES IN SILVER IVWENTORY AT THE SLV.:

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 544.306 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED  893 CONTRACTS TO 148,294   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND  THE GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL  $0.06 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.06) AND  ALSO UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SILVER LONGS AS THEY REMAIN FIRM IN THEIR BELIEF OF A SILVER FAILURE AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 1283 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 7.635 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 3 CONTRACTS OR 15,000 OZ//NEW STANDING:  8,110,000 / //  V)    STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : -445

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JUNE. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 6 days, total 5,511,  contracts:  27.555 million oz  OR 4.5925 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (918 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 4.5925 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 4.5925 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF  893 WITH OUR  $0.06 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 390 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE. OF 7.635 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 15,000 QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING:8,110,000 OZ //  .. WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1283 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 6.415 MILLION  OZ WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. 

 WE HAD 63  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  315,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A SMALL SIZED 1686 CONTRACTS  TO 494,130 AND FURTHER FROM NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -585 CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

.

THE  LOSS IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $7.45//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   //JUST SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR STUPID SPECULATORS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 69.26 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE /FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 103,900 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING:  72.423 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF   $7.45 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A SMall SIZED GAIN OF 228  OI CONTRACTS 0.709 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED  1914 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 494,130

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 228, WITH 1686 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1914 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 228 CONTRACTS OR 0.709 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1914) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1686,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 228 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE. AT 69.26 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE  JUMP OF 103,900 OZ//NEW STANDING: 72.423 TONNES /  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING //.,4) SMALL SIZED COMEX  OI. LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JUNE

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE :

23,967 CONTRACTS OR 2,396,700 OZ OR 74.54  TONNES 6 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3394 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 68.59 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  74.54/3550 x 100% TONNES  2.09% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 74.54 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 893 CONTRACT OI TO 148,294 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 390 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY 390  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 1348 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 390 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1283   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE  GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6.415 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF  $0.06 .

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

end

6. Commodity commentaries//URANIUM

Uranium Stocks Soar On Report US Seeking Billions To End Reliance On Russian Enriched Uranium

TUESDAY, JUN 07, 2022 – 04:18 PM

Back in February, when Biden instituted a wholesale ban on Russian energy exports, he explicitly carved out Russian uranium suppliers for the simple reason that the US is very much reliant on Russia for its nuclear power plant needs – after all, Russia is the third-largest source of U.S. uranium, accounting for about 16.5% of total U.S. uranium imports in 2020 and 23% of the enriched uranium needed to power US commercial nuclear reactors.

This prompted us to ask back on March 9 whether Putin would place enriched uranium on the list of banned Russian exports, and why Uranium stocks soared late last week after U.S. Energy Department signaled more aid for current and future nuclear reactors.

One month later, the thorny issue of Russian uranium supply again came to a head when Russia news agency TASS cited deputy prime minister Novak, who said that Russia is considering a ban on Uranium exports, although it never pulled the plug (at least not yet).

Fast forward to today when we now learn that the Biden admin is hoping to remove Russia’s critical leverage to throttle US nuclear power, and is pushing lawmakers to support a $4.3 billion plan to buy enriched uranium directly from domestic producers to wean the US off Russian imports of the nuclear-reactor fuel, according to a person familiar with the matter. Shares of uranium companies surged.

According to Bloomberg, DOE officials met with key congressional staff, where they said such funding – which amounts to one tenth of what the US recently wired to the US military-industrial complex Ukraine – is urgently needed, adding that any interruption in the supply of enriched Russian uranium could cause operational disruptions at commercial nuclear reactors, the person said. US nuclear energy industry participants have also been briefed on the proposal; while the plan requires approval from Congress it is unlikely that lawmakers will refuse these relatively modest demands if the alternative is the threat of widespread blackouts and immediate political career termination.

The proposal, Bloomberg continues, aims to spur development of more domestic enrichment and other steps needed to turn uranium into reactor fuel; It would also create a government buyer directly purchasing enriched uranium, including the type used in a new breed of advanced reactors now under development.

The proposal is dovetails with legislation introduced earlier this year by Senator Joe Manchin, the West Virginia Democrat who serves as a key swing vote, and Senator Jim Risch, an Idaho Republican, that would authorize billions of dollars in funding to increase the country’s domestic uranium enrichment capabilities. Other congressional backers of expanding US enrichment capabilities include Senator John Barrasso, a Wyoming Republican who serves as the top GOPmember of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

That said, even with billions in backing, it won’t be easy for the US to jump-start the domestic uranium industry. The country has only one remaining commercial enrichment facility – a New Mexico plant owned by Urenco, a British-German-Dutch consortium.

While the immediate list of companies that would benefit from such a funding boost include Centrus Energy, which is building an enrichment facility in Ohio, and ConverDyn, a joint venture between Honeywell International Inc. and General Atomics that provides uranium conversion services, it is likely that the entire uranium space would move higher as the price of spot uranium will likely soar.

Sure enough, the market reaction was fast and furious, with the broader Uranium space in general and the Global X Uranium ETF in particlar, surging as much as 7% to its highest intraday price in a month on the news. Shares of uranium miners such as Cameco and Energy Fuels also soared with nuclear fuel provider Centrus Energy (LEU).

And while we wait for more details about the plan to emerge so we can pinpoint the biggest beneficiaries, here are some variant perception views from GLJ Research in kneejerk response to the report:

  • URANIUM BEAR ARUGMENT: “The announcement today by the US government is just to build more enrichment capacity. Good if you’re LEU. Irrelevant if you’re anyone else. It basically going to all go to the centrifuge project that LEU (odl USEC) has. That was my read of it.”
  • RESPONSE FROM URANIUM EXPERT: “That is a completely false statement. If part of this plan is to sanction Russian uranium then LEU will get hit hard right away, as that is their only cash flow. The devil will be in the details, but what this means is that DOE want funding to build a US enrichment capacity which will require at least 10 Million pounds per year of mined U3O8 feed in order to replace Russian enriched uranium. The US doesn’t have that mined capacity in operation so this will be a huge boost to US and Canadian uranium miners. We have no idea based on the news so far whether Centrus will be the one tasked with building enrichment capacity.  We need to see the full details of the ask to Congress.”
  • URANIUM EXPERT VIEW ON WHAT THIS MEANS FOR PRICES NEAR-TERM: “With SPUT raising a lot of cash today, and already holding nearly $100 Million, there is going to be some big upside in the Spot price over the coming days and weeks.  Spot hit $51 today, with is a $5/lb rebound in the past 2 weeks.”

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.03 PTS OR 0.68%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 482.72 PTS OR 2.24%    /The Nikkei closed UP 290.34 OR 1.04%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.39%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.6892    /Oil UP TO  120.62dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 121.62 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6892 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6923: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1,686 CONTRACTS TO 494,130 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $7.45 IN GOLD PRICING TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADIN. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (1914 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ARE CAUGHT. THE COMMERCIALS WILL SLAUGHTER THESE GUYS WHEN THEY THINK THE TIME IS RIGHT

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1914 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 AUG :1914 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1914 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED  TOTAL OF 803  CONTRACTS IN THAT 1914 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1111  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GOOD GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE  OUR RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $7.45.   

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY   (72.423),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 72.423 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE 7.45) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS AS WELL AS SPECULATOR SHORTS////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A SMALL SIZED GAIN  OF 0.709 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE (72.423 TONNES)

WE HAD 575 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 228 CONTRACTS OR 22,800  OZ OR 0.709 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 121,218/// poor

final gold volumes/yesterday  128,829   poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JUNE ’22 COMEX GOLD //JUNE 8

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz118,676,299 oz
Manfra
Brinks
Loomis2292
kilobars
and 235 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil
No of oz served (contracts) today980  notice(s)98,000 OZ
3.048 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)3304 contracts 330,400 oz
10.276 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month19,980 notices1,998,000 OZ
62.146 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0   oz//

No dealer withdrawals

0 customer deposits

total deposits: nil oz

3 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks: 73,690.092 (2292 kilobars)

ii) Out of Loomis:  8198.505 oz (235 kilobars)

iii) Out of Manfra: 37,787.623 oz

total withdrawal: 118,676.220  oz

ADJUSTMENTS:  1 dealer to customer//manfra/

22,474.549 oz//Manfra

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE.

For the front month of JUNE we have an  oi of 4284 contracts having LOST 2641 contracts

We had 3680 notices filed on TUESDAY so we GAINED A HUGE 1039  contracts

July has a GAIN OF 120 OI to stand at 2213

August has a LOSS of 674 contracts DOWN to 421,034 contracts

We had 980 notice(s) filed today for  98,000 oz FOR THE JUNE 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 980 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and  710 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (19,800) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JUNE 4284  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 980 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,328,400 OZ  OR 72.423 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of JUNE. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE contract month:

No of notices filed so far (19,980) x 100 oz+   (4284)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (980} x 100 oz} which equals 2,328,000 oz standing OR 72.423 TONNES in this   active delivery month of JUNE.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  72.423 TONNES  (A STRONG STANDING FOR A JUNE (  ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,331,163.529 oz                             

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  34,766,209.288 OZ 

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 16,834,297.804  OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 16,834,297.804 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 14,503,134.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  

END

JUNE 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//JUNE 8

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory500,681.955  oz
HSBC
Int. Delaware
Manfra
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory1,176,020.200 oz
CNT
JPM
No of oz served today (contracts)63CONTRACT(S)
315,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)57 contracts (285,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)1565 contracts 7,825,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i) zero dealer deposits  
And now for the wild silver comex results

total dealer deposits:  0     oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into CNT:  609,971.700 oz

ii) Into JPMorgan:  565,067.200

total deposit:  1,176,020.200    oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 171.328 million oz/336.714 million =50.87% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 3

i) Out of HSBC  210,714.150 oz

ii) Out of JPMorgan:  94,034.100 oz

iii) Out of Int. Delaware  195,933.705 oz

total withdrawal  500,681.955       oz

1 adjustments: 

Manfra:  295,319.371 oz dealer to customer

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 72,245 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 336.714 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JUNE OI: 120 HAVING GAINED 3 CONTRACTS. 

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 3 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 15,000 OZ WILL  STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE

DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE

JULY HAD A LOSS OF 7863 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 93,447 CONTRACTS.

AUGUST GAINED 145 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 897

SEPTEMBER HAD A GAIN OF 8357 CONTRACTS UP TO 39,497 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 63 for 315,000 oz

Comex volumes:58,840// est. volume today//   poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 72,441 contracts ( fair )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1565 x 5,000 oz = 7,825,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE(120) and the number of notices served upon today 63  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JUNE./2022 contract month: 1565 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE (120)  – number of notices served upon today (63) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month equates 8,110,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JUNE 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.75//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 2/WITH GOLD UP $22.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.20 TONNES

JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $1$ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AWITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.36 TONNES

MAY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.10: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.95//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

May 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.10/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

MAY 25/WITH GOLD UP @$2.70: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.89./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.07 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.97 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS  AT 1056.18 TONNES

MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $24.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.21 TONNES//

MAY 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.07 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.21 TONNES

MAY 17/WITH GOLD UP $5.40:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.28 TONNES

MAY 16/WITH GOLD UP $5.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.89 TONNES

MAY 13/ WITH GOLD DOWN $16.25//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.8 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.82 TONNES

MAY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.99 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.62 TONNES

MAY 11/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.25 TONNES FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.65 TONNES

MAY 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.10 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.90 TONNES

MAY 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.05: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.98 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.00 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $7.95: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1084.98 TONNES

MAY 5/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.04 TONNES

MAY 4//WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 \TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.04 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $6.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A WITHDRAWL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1092.23

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.20: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1094.55 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1066.04 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.459 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.167 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER DOWN $.34: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITTHDRAWAL OF 246,000 OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.626 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 2/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.261 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS T 553.872 MILLION OZ

JUNE 1/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.538 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.133 MILLION OZ//

MAY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN $.41 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST S AT 558.071 MILLION OZ//

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.071 MILLION OZ///

MAY 26/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.515 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.071 MILLION OZ

MAY 25/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .922 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.486 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20.WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WIHDRAWAL OF .785 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 18/WITH SILVER UP $0.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL  1.892 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 17/WITH SILVER UP $.22 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.508 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 16/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.546 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.593 MILLION OZ//

MAY 13/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ/

MAY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ//

May 11/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.487 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ//

MAY 10.//WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .93 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .851 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.900 MILLION OZ

MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF.877 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 47 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 554,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.171 MILLION OZ//

INVENTORY TONIGHT RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ/

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards

Rickards: The Real Reason Why Gold Has Stumbled

WEDNESDAY, JUN 08, 2022 – 11:45 AM

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

The world has changed radically in recent years. We’ve had the worst pandemic since 1918, and the third worst in world history. We’ve had a global supply chain breakdown. Inflation is the worst since the early 1980s. Europe is experiencing its worst war since the end of World War II.

That kinetic war in Ukraine is accompanied by a financial and economic war between the U.S., the U.K., the EU and Russia that involves extreme financial sanctions, including seizing the central bank reserves of the world’s 11th-largest economy. That financial war and accompanying sanctions have disrupted supply chains on top of the disruptions already present.

And the world’s second-largest economy, China, has locked down 50 million people in Shanghai and Beijing for most of the past two months in a hopeless and misguided effort to suppress COVID. (Note to China: The virus goes where it wants). The list goes on.

If gold is the ultimate safe haven for investors and the world is dangerously unsafe, then the price of gold must be skyrocketing, right?

Gold Has Lost Its Luster

That’s not the case. Today gold is about $1,844 per ounce (that price fluctuates daily and intraday). That’s more than 10% lower than the $2,069 all-time high of Aug. 6, 2020, and 10% below the interim high of $2,043 of this March 8.

The bottom line is, gold is lower today than it was two years ago. It was $1,870 on July 22, 2020 and it’s $1,844 today almost two years later. There have been some spills and thrills along the way including two peaks over $2,000 and several smashes down into the $1,680 range, but always followed by a reversion to a persistent central tendency that hasn’t moved much at all.

So, we’re back to the original question. With inflation, shortages, and war all around and getting worse, why is gold not surging past $2,000 per ounce and making its way to $3,000 and beyond?

Gold Should Be Soaring

Supply/demand conditions favor higher gold prices. Global production of gold has remained fairly constant for the past six years. Over the same six-year period, during a period when global output was flat, central banks increased their official holdings by 6%.

China has added 1,400 metric tonnes in the past twelve years (that’s the official number; unofficially they probably own far more). Russia has acquired 1,500 metric tonnes over that same period.

Other large buyers include Poland, Turkey, Iran, Kazakhstan, Japan, Vietnam and Mexico. Now, central banks in the Visegard Group (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) are buying gold.

What’s curious is that individual investors in the U.S. still seem indifferent to gold as a monetary asset. In theory, central banks are the most knowledgeable about the real condition of the global monetary system. If central banks are buying all the gold they can with hard currency (dollars or euros), it’s not clear what retail investors are waiting for.

Of course, central bank holdings are only about 17.5% of total above-ground gold and there is far more demand from bullion investors and for jewelry (a form of wearable wealth). Still, central banks are arguably the most knowledgeable market participants; and their steady increases in gold holdings is meaningful.

Gold Prices Are Tied to Interest Rates

Interest rates are also poised to play a supporting role. Many of the directional moves in gold prices over the past two years have been tied to interest rate moves. The correlation is not perfect, but it is strong.

The rally in gold prices in late 2020 was tied to a fall in interest rates (yield-to-maturity) on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note from 1.930% on December 19, 2019 to 0.508% on July 31, 2020.

Similarly, the fall in gold prices after February 2021 was tied to an increase in interest rates on the 10-year Treasury note from 1.039% on January 2, 2021 to 3.130% on May 2, 2022. After dropping to 2.722% in late May, rates have rebounded to 3.031% as of today.

But I believe that interest rates on the 10-year Treasury note will fall again and will continue to fall as global growth weakens. That’s good news for gold investors.

Short-term rates are going up because of Fed policy, but long-term rates will go down because investors see that the Fed will cause a recession. That correlates with higher gold prices.

While market supply/demand conditions are favorable for gold, and the overall interest rate environment is also favorable for gold, neither seems to have the power needed to push gold solidly past $2,000 in the short run.

What’s the problem?

Look No Further Than the Dollar

The real headwind for gold and the main reason gold has struggled for the past two years is the strong dollar.

After all, the dollar price of gold is really just the inverse of the strength of the dollar. A weaker dollar means a higher dollar price for gold. A stronger dollar means a lower dollar price for gold.

It may seem paradoxical to imagine a strong dollar in the midst of all the inflation we’re seeing. But that’s the case.

What’s extraordinary over the past two years isn’t that gold hasn’t soared; it’s that gold has held its own in the face of a persistently strong dollar. So that leads to the next question:

What’s behind the strong dollar and what could cause the dollar to suddenly weaken and send gold prices into the stratosphere?

The strong dollar has been driven by a demand for dollar-denominated collateral, mostly U.S. Treasury bills, needed as collateral to support leverage on bank balance sheets and in hedge fund derivatives positions.

That high-quality collateral is in short supply (partly because U.S. Treasury issuance is lower due to smaller than expected deficits). As banks scramble for scarce collateral, they need dollars to pay for the Treasury bills. That fuels dollar demand.

The scramble for collateral also speaks to weaker economic growth, fears of default, decreasing creditworthiness of borrowers and fear of a global liquidity crisis. We’re not there yet, but we’re getting close with no relief in sight.

As weak growth turns into a global recession, a new financial panic will be on the horizon. At that point, the dollar itself may cease to be a safe haven, especially given the aggressive use of sanctions by the U.S. and the desire of major economies such as China, Russia, Turkey, and India to avoid the U.S. dollar system if possible.

When this panic hits and the dollar is deemed no longer reliable, the world will turn to gold.

Frustration with the sideways movement of gold prices is understandable. But behind the curtain, a new liquidity crisis is brewing.

Investors should consider today’s prices a gift and perhaps a last chance to acquire gold at these prices before the real safe haven race begins.

Gold is so cheap right now, it’s practically a steal.

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Craig Hemke: When money dies all over again

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-06-07 14:00Section: Daily Dispatches

2p ET Tuesday, June 7, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report, writing today at Sprott Money, excerpts some passages from Adam Fergusson’s classic economic history of the 1920s, “When Money Dies” — passages that seem to evoke our own era of infinite money creation.

Hemke’s commentary is headlined “When Money Dies” and is posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/When-Money-Dies-Craig-Hemke-June-07-2022

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Northwest Territorial Mint fraudsters get years in prison

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-06-07 21:43Section: Daily Dispatches

$30 Million in Missing Gold Bars, a Couple on the Lam from the FBI, and a Corgi Nicknamed Nugget: The Inside story of a Precious Metal Ponzi Scheme

By Lukas I. Alpert
MarketWatch, New York
Tuesday, June 7, 2022

A precious metals dealer who recently went on the lam after being convicted in a $30 million Ponzi scheme involving gold and silver bars has been sentenced to 11 years in federal prison.
Bernard Ross Hansen, 61, and his vault manager and girlfriend, Diane Renee Erdmann, 49, were found guilty by a federal jury in July 2021 of defrauding over 3,000, mostly-elderly customers out of more than $30 million in a gold and silver bullion investment scheme. 

The pair failed to show up for their original sentencing hearing in April and went on the lam for 11 days before being caught by Federal Bureau of Investigation agents at a motel north of Seattle with three loaded handguns, boxes of collectible coins, and a pet corgi nicknamed Nugget in their car, authorities said.

“Every day he was on the run was one more free day,” investigators say Hansen told them after he was arrested, according to court filings. 

The couple finally faced the music Monday, with Hansen receiving an 11-year sentence and Erdmann five years. Hansen was ordered to pay $33.7 million in restitution and Erdmann $32.1 million. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/every-day-he-was-on-the-run-was-one-more-free-day-gold-bullion-dealer-sentenced-to-11-years-after-fleeing-conviction-in-30-million-ponzi-scheme-11654620372

end

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES //FERTILIZER+ OTHERS

“The Summer Of Starvation”: Soaring Fertilizer Prices Unleash Chaos, Hunger Worldwide

WEDNESDAY, JUN 08, 2022 – 03:44 PM

One of the most pernicious consequences – if primarily for the anti-Russia west – resulting from the Ukraine war, has been the unprecedented spike in fertilizer prices which among other things, has sparked a historic surge in food prices and collapse in supply chains around the globe, as we discussed in these articles published over the past few months:

Fast forwarding to today, when we have some good, some bad and some pretty terrible news. The good news it that fertilizer prices have eased modestly from all time highs, as the following chart of Tampa Ammonia CFR spot prices shows.

The bad news is that the the price hasn’t dropped nearly enough: according to Bloomberg, the glut of fertilizers piling up at the biggest Brazilian ports signals that the price of the nutrients has to drop further before farmers start buying.

In Paranagua, private warehouses reached their maximum storage capacity of 3.5 million tons, Luiz Teixeira da Silva, Paranagua’s operations director told Bloomberg. A terminal operated by VLI Logistics, one of the two at Santos port that store fertilizers, is also full, according to people with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named as the information isn’t public.

As noted above, the price of fertilizers across the globe has exploded to unprecedented levels, and Brazil has been no exception.

That’s a problem because the agriculture-heavy country and food-source for half the globe, imports nearly 85% of its fertilizer and Russia is the main origin. As supplies have normalized, prices have declined over the past weeks, but farmers still aren’t buying. They are waiting for further price cuts, according to Marina Cavalcante, an analyst at Bloomberg’s Green Markets.

“Farmers have the expectation that prices will keep falling after declines last week and in the previous one,” she said. “So they’ll wait for further decreases to buy.”

And here is an example in supply/demand game theory: Brazil is the world’s biggest shipper of several crops, including soybeans. Farmers can delay their purchases until the eve of the soybean seeding in September. But if they all wait too long, a last-minute rush could lead to inland transportation bottlenecks that may leave some of them empty-handed anyway. 

There is another problem: there just may not be enough actual fertilizer coming out of Russia, which has decided to punish the world by sending food prices for western nations to record highs and spark social unrest in the process.  After all, the biggest reason prices are so high is because there is just not enough supply. And while speculators may have pushed prices somewhat higher than they should be, any farmers hoping that prices will fully renormalize will be disappointed.

Which leaves us with “demand destruction”, only as Rabobank’s Michael Every reminds us, when it comes to food “demand destruction” – especially at poor, third world countries – it has a different, less pleasant name: starvation.

Consider what is going on in Chad: as DW reports, Africa’s fifth-largest country declared a food emergency due to a lack of grain supplies. The landlocked African nation on Thursday urged the international community to help its population cope with rising food insecurity.

Cereal prices across Africa surged because of the slump in exports from Ukraine — a consequence of the war in Ukraine and a raft of international sanctions on Russia which have disrupted supplies of fertilizer, wheat and other commodities from both Russia and Ukraine.

DW spoke with one couple in Chad who are dealing with the effects of collapsing food supplies:

Cedric Toralta and Anne Non-Assoum live in the Boutalbagar neighborhood of Chad’s capital, N’Djamena. Non-Assoum — who had just returned from the market — expressed her dissatisfaction with rising food prices.

”Look what I bought: Here is meat for 1,500 CFA francs ($2.45, €2.28), rice for 1,000 and spices for 600 — that’s more than 3,000 CFA francs only for lunch for four people,” she said.

She told DW that in the past, the same purchase would have cost around 2,000 CFA francs. “My husband and I spent 60,000 CFA a month on food, but now, even 90,000 is not enough!”

The dire situation has forced Toralta to take drastic nutrition measures that are not without consequences.

“We can’t make ends meet, even though I decided to increase our food ration by 30,000 CFA francs. So I’m forced to reduce the amount we eat every day — and you see it’s affecting the children,” Toralta told DW.

”We need urgent food aid for the population,” Non-Assoum said, stressing the urgency. “If even the middle-income population in the capital can’t cope with this situation, how can the rural population? It’s very complicated, and we need the international community to help us.”

The prices of basic necessities have also risen significantly in Chad’s neighbor to the northwest, Niger. Milk, sugar, oil and flour are the products whose prices have skyrocketed there. The cost of fertilizer has also increased dramatically.

At a recent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the African Union chairperson, Macky Sall, said the continent was bearing the brunt of the war in Ukraine due to a shortage of grain and fertilizer.

As a report from the ground (not from a well-fed Western journalist working from home) puts it: “In the village of Falke, some 665km (413 miles) from the capital Niamey, Tassiou Adamou, a farmer, told DW that this year’s harvest will likely be poor because producers cannot afford to buy enough fertilizer.

“Groundnuts, which are our main cash crop, need fertilizer,” Adamou pointed out. “Until last season, a bag of fertilizer cost 17,000 CFA francs. This year, it has reached 30,000,” he said, adding that it is impossible to produce much for those in the countryside.

“If you used to use three bags of fertilizer for your field, today, you can only have one bag with the same amount. Where you used to harvest 50 bunches of millet, you can barely produce 30 bunches without fertilizer.”

Much of Africa, Every writes, is in the same boat… and it is rapidly sinking, and the irony is that everyone needs much more fertilizer now to avoid a global food crisis, yet they either can’t afford it, or are hoping it falls some more in price. Unfortunately, that will not happen and instead marginal buyers will keep pushing the scarce commodity.

What happens next? We give the mic to Every, who summarized the current debacle best: “the global rich, who set rates, have to decide if they will sacrifice their asset prices to help the global poor eat. If we won’t say that, can we at least say that we have a choice between putting calories in rich people’s cars or in poor people’s mouths?”

To conclude, markets say “demand destruction”, but won’t say it can mean “mass starvation”. Some are now able to say “stagflation”, but many in markets weren’t allowed to until recently. Some can say “recession”, but many in markets and politics still aren’t allowed to. Yet nobody wants to say “depression” because there is *still* the assumption that, bad as things are, somehow a ‘hockey-stick’ bounce lies on the other side. Not sticks, stones, burning torches, and pitchforks.

Here, some may argue that “torches and pitchforks” is a euphemism, but put several hundred million people on food “demand destruction” for a few weeks, and watch as the next Arab Spring won’t be “Arab” and won’t be in the spring: it will be a Global Summer of starvation.

END

END

END

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.6892

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.6923

HANG SANG CLOSED  UP 482.72 PTS OR 2.24% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 290.34% OR 1.04%

3. Europe stocks  ALL CLOSED  ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  102.38/Euro RISES TO 1.0731

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.243/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 133.31/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -SHORE CLOSED  DOWN//  OFF- SHORE DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +1.258%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.34% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 2.40%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.86

3j Gold at $1852.05 silver at: 22.00  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP  1.10      roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 59.94

3m oil into the 120 dollar handle for WTI and  1121 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 133.91DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9764– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0475well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.007 UP 4  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.155 UP 3 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.17

Futures Drop As Yields Push Higher, Hawkish ECB Looms

WEDNESDAY, JUN 08, 2022 – 08:09 AM

After yesterday’s bizarro rally, US futures and European bourses dipped ending two days of gains, as yields reversed Tuesday’s slide and climbed ahead of highly anticipated CPI data on Friday and a hawkish ECB meeting tomorrow, as traders try to predict the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Nasdaq 100 futures were flat at 7:30 a.m. in New York, with contracts on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones also modestly lower. European markets also dipped, with Credit Suisse shares tumbling after the Swiss bank announced that it expects a loss in the 2Q and is weighing a fresh round of job cuts. Meanwhile, Asian stocks rose as Beijing’s move to approve a slew of new video games bolstered bets that the outlook is improving for the Chinese technology sector. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury resumed its advance, climbing to 3%, while the dollar rose as the yen cratered to fresh 20 year lows, flat and bitcoin traded around $30K again.

Among notable premarket movers, energy companies’ extended their Tuesday gains with Imperial Petroleum rising 8.3% and Energy Focus adding 20%. Western Digital shares climbed 4.1% in US premarket trading after the chipmaker said that it’ll consider splitting its main units as part of a review of “strategic alternatives” following talks with activist investor Elliott. US-listed Chinese stocks jump in premarket trading, on track for a third day of gains, after China approved a second batch of video games this year, providing a signal of policy support to the the country’s internet sector; Alibaba (BABA US) gained 5.8%, JD.com (JD US) +4.4%, Pinduoduo (PDD US) +5.9%, Baidu (BIDU US) +2.7%. Other notable premarket movers:

  • Intel (INTC US) shares fell 1.9% in premarket trading as Citi lowered its estimates on the chipmaker after the company’s management mentioned at a conference that circumstances are worse than expected during the quarter.
  • Altria Group (MO US) stock slid 2.4% in premarket trading as Morgan Stanley downgraded it to underweight, citing increasing macro pressures and competitive risks.
  • Western Digital (WDC US) shares rise 4.1% in premarket trading, after the chipmaker said that it will consider splitting its main units as part of a review of “strategic alternatives”.
  • Smartsheet (SMAR US) stock fell about 7% in premarket trading as analysts said the software company delivered a mixed set of results with billings growth decelerating to top estimates by a slimmer margin than in previous quarters.
  • Novavax (NVAX US) shares jump as much as 22% in US premarket trading after the company’s coronavirus vaccine won support from an FDA advisory panel.
  • DBV Technologies ADRs (DBVT US) gain as much as 22% in US premarket trading after a trial for the biotech firm’s peanut allergy treatment met its primary endpoint.

Sentiment remains fragile on concerns rising rates will spark a recession as corporate earnings are set to slide. Thursday the ECB is set to wind down trillions of euros of asset purchases in a prelude to a rate hike expected in July that will mark the end of eight years of negative interest rates. “Higher yields will inevitably resume the pressure on valuations,” said Roger Lee, head of UK equity strategy at Investec Bank.

Inflation now exceeds 8% in the euro area, and is expected to stay above that level in the US when May data comes out on Friday, increasing pressure on central banks to stick to aggressive rate hikes. “Recent bouts of optimism can only be short-lived for now, as they were based on the wrong assumptions, that lower growth would push central bankers to ease their aggressive path,” Olivier Marciot, a portfolio manager at Unigestion SA, wrote in a report. Yet some argue that central banks will be forced back into dovish mode, among them hedge fund founder Ray Dalio. The billionaire said central banks across the globe will be required to cut interest rates in 2024 after a period of stagflation.

On Friday, focus will turn to the US CPI reading for hints on the Fed’s tightening path following the central bank’s outsized hike on May 4. The data is expected to show inflation picked up from a month ago, but slightly slowed from a year earlier. Complicating the task of policy makers trying to arrest runaway inflation without choking off growth, the war in Ukraine shows no signs of ending. That’s ignited higher food and energy prices across the world, despite the best efforts of central banks to use higher rates to cool economies.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was down 0.4%, with shares of basic resources companies and financial sector stocks leading the drop,  while the region’s bonds fell as traders braced for a crucial European Central Bank meeting. Credit Suisse shares tumbled as much as 7.6% after the Swiss bank announced that it expects a loss in the 2Q. In addition, people familiar with the matter said that the lender is weighing a fresh round of job cuts. European mining stocks also underperformed the Stoxx 600 benchmark as copper declines, while iron ore fluctuates with investors weighing signs of demand recovery against caution that China may seek to stabilize commodity prices. The Stoxx Europe 600 Basic Resources sub-index slid 1.1% as of 9:45 a.m. in London after rising to the highest since April on Tuesday. Here are the most notable European movers:

  • Prosus’s shares jump as much as 8.6% in Amsterdam trading after China approved its second batch of video games this year, with a total of 60 titles.
  • Naspers, which holds a 29% stake in Tencent through Prosus, up as much as 9.8%.
  • Inditex shares gain as much as 5.3% after the Zara owner reported 1Q results. Analysts were impressed by the sales beat, with Bryan Garnier calling the company a “safe-haven choice” in the retail sector.
  • UK and European retail stocks rise after Inditex’s results helped boost sentiment, with the retail segment the biggest gainer in the Stoxx 600 Index. Asos gained as much as +3.9%, Boohoo +3.1%, JD Sports +2.5%.
  • Voestalpine shares rise as much as 4.5% after the company reported strong results for the business year, even as its guidance for FY23 points at a lack of visibility for fiscal 2H, according to analysts.
  • Haldex shares rise as much as 45% after SAF-Holland offers SEK66 in cash per share for the Swedish brake and air suspension products maker, representing a 46.5% premium to its closing price on Tuesday.
  • Wizz Air shares fall as much as 8.6% after the company reported results that were in line with expectations but flagged an operating loss for the 1Q of fiscal year 2023.
  • European mining stocks underperform the Stoxx 600 benchmark as copper declines, while iron ore fluctuates. Anglo American shares fell as much as 1.7%, Rio Tinto -1.8%, Glencore -1.7%, Antofagasta -3.3%.
  • Orpea shares declined as much as 5.9% as the company said that French police investigators began an evidence-gathering raid on Wednesday at its headquarters.

Asian stocks rose as Beijing’s move to approve a slew of new video games bolstered bets that the outlook is improving for the Chinese technology sector.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 1.1%, with Alibaba and Tencent providing the biggest boosts. Benchmarks in Hong Kong outperformed on the approvals news, while Japanese equities climbed as the yen continued to weaken. Stocks in India fell after the country’s central bank raised interest rates as expected while Thai shares inched up after the Bank of Thailand kept its benchmark rate unchanged.  China approved more games in a step toward normalization after a months-long freeze amid the government’s crackdowns on the tech sector. The news follows a report earlier this week that regulators are preparing to conclude an investigation of ride-hailing giant Didi.

“We think the significant dangers have passed” in Chinese equities markets, said Eric Schiffer, chief executive officer at California-based private equity firm Patriarch Organization, which holds positions in Alibaba and JD. “The approval on the game titles signals that policymakers are following through on their intention to back off tech regulation and reverse the pain that caused investors to leave the sector.”  Optimism toward a less-harsh regulatory environment and China’s post-Covid economic reopening has helped Hong Kong’s tech stocks outperform US peers recently. The Hang Seng Tech Index is up more than 17% the past month compared with little change in the Nasdaq 100. The rebound in Chinese equities also helped the MSCI Asia Pacific Index stage a bigger recovery than the S&P 500 in the same period.

Japanese equities advanced for a fourth straight day, as the yen’s weakness provided support for the nation’s exporters.   The Topix rose 1.2% to 1,969.98 as of market close, while the Nikkei advanced 1% to 28,234.29. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 1.8%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,646 rose and 435 fell, while 89 were unchanged.

Stocks in India declined as the Reserve Bank of India said it would withdraw pandemic-era accommodation to quell inflation after raising borrowing costs for a second straight month.  The S&P BSE Sensex dropped 0.4% to 54,893.84, as of 2:46 p.m. in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index fell 0.6%. Both gauges erased gains of as much as 0.8% reached during the central bank’s briefing and are heading for a fourth day of declines. Of 30 shares in the Sensex, 13 rose and 17 fell. Sustained high prices could unhinge inflationary expectations and trigger second-round effects, central bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said in an online briefing, emphasizing that preserving price stability is key to ensuring lasting economic growth. Reliance Industries was the biggest drag on the Sensex, while State Bank of India gave the biggest boost. All except two of BSE’s 19 sector sub-gauges declined, with telecom and energy groups the worst performers as realty and metals gained

In FX, Yen weakness extends in European trade, with JPY hitting the weakest level since 2002 at 133.77/USD after BOJ’s Kuroda reiterated easing stance. The dollar strengthened against all its group-of-10 peers with the yen and Australian and New Zealand dollars as the worst performers. The euro fluctuated around the $1.07 handle while bunds and Italian bonds fell alongside Treasuries, paring some of Tuesday’s gains. Australian and New Zealand dollars both weakened amid greenback strength and falling US stock futures. Aussie further was weighed by local yields giving up Tuesday’s RBA-driven gains.

In rates, Treasuries drifted lower, giving back a portion of Tuesday’s gains and following bigger losses for bunds, which underperformed ahead of Thursday’s ECB policy meeting.  Yields are cheaper by 2bp-3bp across the curve with front-end marginally outperforming, steepening 2s10s spread by ~1.5bp and building curve concession for the auction; bunds underperform by 1.5bp in 10-year sector.  Focal points of US session include 10-year auction, following soft results for Tuesday’s 3-year. $33b 10-year reopening at 1pm ET is second of this week’s three auctions; $19b 30-year reopening is ahead Thursday. WI 10-year yield ~3.015% is above auction stops since 2011 and ~7bp cheaper than May’s, which tailed by 1.4bp. JGBs little changed, with benchmark 10-year bonds trading again after no transactions on Tuesday. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany; Italy lags, widening ~3bps to core at the 10y points ahead of the ECB on Thursday.

In commodities, WTI drifts 0.6% higher to trade at around $120. Most base metals are in the green; LME tin rises 2.8%, outperforming peers. Spot gold falls roughly $5 to trade at $1,848/oz.

Looking at To the day ahead now, and it’s a fairly quiet one on the calendar, but data releases include German industrial production and Italian retail sales for April, as well as the UK construction PMI for May and the final reading of US wholesale inventories for April.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 4,144.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 441.39
  • MXAP up 0.8% to 169.14
  • MXAPJ up 1.1% to 559.98
  • Nikkei up 1.0% to 28,234.29
  • Topix up 1.2% to 1,969.98
  • Hang Seng Index up 2.2% to 22,014.59
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3,263.79
  • Sensex down 0.4% to 54,907.55
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,121.10
  • Kospi little changed at 2,626.15
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $120.92/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,847.71
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.34% to 102.67
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.33%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.0686

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Boris Johnson plans to press ahead with legislation giving him the power to override parts of the Brexit deal, three people familiar with the matter said, a move likely to anger some of his MPs and the EU
  • The yen’s historic weakness is spreading from the dollar into other currency crosses as the Bank of Japan’s policy isolation grows. Bloomberg’s Correlation-Weighted Currency Index for the yen — a gauge of its relative strength against a broad basket of Group-of-10 peers — slumped to a seven-year low Wednesday
  • Japanese investors sold US Treasuries for the sixth consecutive month in April, underscoring waning appetite for the securities as the Federal Reserve sticks to its aggressive monetary tightening path
  • Inflation in Hungary exceeded 10% for the first time in more than 20 years, putting pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy further and prop up the forint
  • Australian inflation is likely to breach 6% and potentially could go “well above” that level and remain there for the rest of the year, Secretary to the Treasury Steven Kennedy said Wednesday
  • Economists and investors criticized Australia’s central bank for confusing communications after it raised interest rates by twice as much as expected, having previously signaled a preference for quarter-point moves
  • The RBI delivered a 50 basis-point rate hike as predicted by 17 of 41 economists in a Bloomberg survey
  • A slew of China video game approvals is giving stock bulls renewed hope that a nascent rebound in tech shares could become a sustainable rally. The Hang Seng Tech Index jumped more than 4% Wednesday after the government approved 60 licenses

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were mostly higher following the gains on Wall St and optimism of China easing its tech crackdown. ASX 200 recovered from the prior day’s RBA-induced selling with nearly all sectors in the green, although financials underperformed. Nikkei 225 extended further above the 28k level on currency weakness and with Q1 GDP data revised upwards to a narrower contraction. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded mixed with tech fuelling the gains in Hong Kong after China’s NPPA approved the publishing licences for 60 games this month, while sentiment in the mainland gradually soured despite support efforts as an official also warned that China’s foreign trade stabilisation faces uncertainties and large pressure.

Top Asian News

  • China Vice Commerce Minister Wang said China’s foreign trade stabilisation faces uncertainties and a large pressure from domestic and external factors. Furthermore, he sees global demand growth as low, while he added that China will accelerate export tax rebates and MOFCOM will assist foreign trade companies in securing orders, according to Reuters.
  • Chinese Retail Passenger Car Sales (May) +30% M/M, according to PCA’s Prelim data cited by Bloomberg.
  • Japan’s CDP has, as expected, submitted a no-confidence motion against the governing administration within the Lower House, motion will be put to a vote on June 9th, via Asahi; Asahi adds that the move is not expected to go anywhere

European bourses have trimmed initial upside, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, with macro newsflow limited and the initial strength primarily a continuation of APAC/Wall St. leads. In specifics, Credit Suisse (-5%) issued a Q2 profit warning for the group and its Investment Bank division while noted Retail name Inditex (+4%) provided a positive update. Stateside, futures are modestly pressured overall but well within overnight ranges ahead of a slim docket; ES -0.4%. DiDi (DIDI) is in advanced discussions to own a one-third stake of Sinomach Zhijun, a China state-backed EV maker, according to Reuters sources.

Top European News

  • Euro-Zone Economy Grew More Than Estimated at Start of Year
  • Even the ECB’s Most Dire Forecast May Have Been Too Optimistic
  • Euro Options Point to Most-Pivotal ECB Meeting Since 2019
  • Ireland Accuses Johnson of Acting in ‘Bad Faith’ on Brexit Deal
  • Saudi Wealth Fund Makes Second $1 Billion Bet on Swedish Gaming

Central banks

  • RBI hiked the Repurchase Rate by 50bps to 4.90% (exp. 40bps hike) via unanimous decision and dropped mention of “staying accommodative”, while RBI Governor Das noted that inflation has increased above upper tolerance levels and they remain focused on bringing down inflation. Das added they will control inflation without losing sight of growth and that further monetary policy measures are necessary to anchor inflation, as well as noted that upside risk to inflation had intensified and materialised sooner than expected.
  • RBI Governor says they dropped the word “accommodative” from their stance, but they remain accommodative; liquidity withdrawal going forward will be calibrated and gradual.
  • BoJ’s Kuroda says rapid weakening of JPY as seen recently is undesirable; various macroeconomic models show that a weak JPY is positive. I It is important for FX to move stably, reflecting fundamentals.
  • BoJ is expected to maintain its view that the domestic economy is picking up as a trend and will likely continue improving, according to Reuters sources.
  • PBoC international department official Zhou said the PBoC will keep guiding financing costs lower, while the PBoC also announced that China will extend the trading hours of the interbank FX market, according to Reuters.

FX

  • Buck bounces as Yen rout continues after soft verbal intervention from BoJ Governor and Japanese Economy Minister; DXY back around 102.500 axis, USD.JPY climbs to circa 133.86 at one stage.
  • More Lira depreciation on multiple negative factors including unconventional easing policy stance aimed at returning inflation to target, USD/TRY touches 17.1500.
  • Aussie and Kiwi undermined by Greenback rebound and fade in general risk sentiment; AUD/USD loses 0.7200+ status again, NZD/USD sub-0.6450.
  • Franc and Pound down, but Euro and Loonie resilient as former awaits ECB and latter leans on strong crude prices; USD/CHF just shy of 0.9790, Cable under 1.2550, EUR/USD probing 1.0700 and USD/CAD pivoting 1.2550.
  • Forint and Zloty underpinned post-strong Hungarian CPI metrics and pre-NBP that is expected to hike 75bp; EUR/HUF & EUR/PLN around 389.60 and 4.5700 respectively.

Fixed Income

  • Bunds and Gilts pare some losses after testing round and half round number levels at 149.00 and 114.50 respectively, with added incentive after solid demand for 10 year German and UK supply.
  • US Treasuries await 2032 issuance with caution given a lukewarm reception at 3 year auction.
  • 10 year note just off base of 118-03/13 overnight range.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent have been moving in-line with broader risk; however, following the UAE Minister the benchmarks have extended to the upside and post gains in excess of USD 1.50/bbl.
  • US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +1.8mln (exp. -1.9mln), Cushing -1.8mln, Gasoline +1.8mln (exp. +1.1mln), Distillates +3.4mln (exp. +1.1mln)
  • Brazilian government is considering measures to monitor fuel prices at distributors, according to Reuters sources.
  • UAE Energy Minister says situation is not encouraging when it comes to the amounts of crude OPEC+ can bring to the market, via Reuters; Notes conformity with the OPEC+ deal is more than 200%, are risks when China is back, in talks with Germany and other nations to see if they are interested in UAE natgas.
  • Spot gold is essentially unchanged, and continues to pivot its 10-DMA, while base metals are primarily tracking broader risk sentiment.

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: June MBA Mortgage Applications -6.5%, prior -2.3%
  • 10:00: April Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior 1.7%
  • 10:00: April Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 2.1%, prior 2.1%

DB’s Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap

A reminder that Jim’s annual default study was released yesterday. His view is that while nothing much will change for the remainder of 2022, we might be coming to the end of the ultra-low default world discussed in previous editions. First, there’ll likely be a cyclical US recession to address in 2023, and after that, a risk that various trends reverse that have made the last 20 years so subdued for defaults. See the report here for more details.

It’s been another topsy-turvy session for markets over the last 24 hours as investors look forward to the big macro events later in the week, namely the ECB tomorrow and then the US CPI print the day after. Initially it had looked like we were set for another day of higher rates, not least after the hawkish surprise from the RBA we mentioned in yesterday’s edition as they hiked by a larger-than-expected 50bps. But more negative developments subsequently dampened the mood, including an unexpected contraction in German factory orders, and then an announcement by Target (-2.31%) that they were cutting their profit outlook for the second time in three weeks. But then sentiment turned once again later in the US session, with equities seeing a late rally that put the major indices back in positive territory for the day.

Against that backdrop, equities swung between gains and losses, but the S&P 500 rallied to a broad-based gain after the European close, finishing the day +0.95% higher after being as much as -1% lower following the open, with only the consumer discretionary (-0.37%) sector finishing in the red after Target updated their guidance again to now expect Q2’s operating margin to be around 2% amid price reductions to reduce inventory. For the index as a whole, it was also the first back-to-back positive start the week since in a month, that’s also seen it recover all of last week’s declines. Energy (+3.14%) was the biggest outperformer in the S&P amidst a further rise in oil prices, with Brent Crude (+0.89%) moving back above the $120/bbl mark. However, Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.28%) missed the late rally and eventually settled in negative territory.

Whilst equities had a mixed session, sovereign bonds put in a more consistent performance ahead of tomorrow’s ECB decision, with decent gains posted on both sides of the Atlantic. Yields on 10yr Treasuries were down -6.6bps to 2.97%, moving back beneath 3% again, although this morning’s +2.8bps rise has taken them just back above that point to 3.001% at time of writing. Yesterday’s moves lower in yields were more pronounced at the long end of the curve, with the 2yr yield essentially flat as investors’ expectations of the near-term path of Fed rate hikes remained fairly steady. Indeed, the futures-implied rate by the December meeting was also down just -1.5bps to 2.84%.

It was much the same story in Europe too of lower yields and flatter curves, as the amount of ECB tightening priced in for the rest of the year fell a modest -1.4bps from its high of 125bps the previous day. Yields on 10yr bunds (-2.9bps), OATs (-3.6bps) and gilts (-3.3bps) all fell back, and there was a noticeable decline in peripheral spreads thanks to even larger reductions in the Italian (-12.1bps) and Spanish (-7.4bps) 10yr yields. Interestingly, another trend over recent days that continued was the fall in European natural gas prices (-3.57%), which fell for a 5th consecutive session to hit its lowest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, at €79.61/MWh.

Those late gains for US equities have carried over into Asia overnight, with the Hang Seng (+1.70%) the Nikkei (+0.85%) both advancing strongly. The main exception to that has been in mainland China however, where the CSI 300 (-0.41%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.70%) have just taken a tumble this morning. We’ve also seen that in US equity futures too, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.335 this morning.

On the data side, the final estimate of Japan’s GDP for Q1 showed a smaller contraction than initially thought, with GDP only falling by an annualised -0.5%, which is half the -1% decline initially thought. However, the Japanese Yen has continued to weaken overnight, and is currently trading at a fresh 20-year low against the US Dollar of 133.13 per dollar. It’s also at a 7-year low against the Euro of 142.19 per euro.

Here in the UK, Brexit could be back in the headlines shortly as it’s been reported by multiple outlets including Bloomberg that legislation will be introduced that would enable the UK government to override the Northern Ireland Protocol. That’s the part of the Brexit deal that avoids the need for a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, but has been a persistent source of tension between the two sides since the deal was signed, since it creates an economic border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain that Northern Irish unionists are opposed to. Irish PM Martin said yesterday that Europe would respond in a “calm and firm” way, and Bloomberg’s report suggested the draft bill could be presented to the House of Commons tomorrow.

Looking at yesterday’s data releases, German factory orders for April unexpectedly saw a -2.7% contraction (vs. +0.4% expansion expected). That was the third consecutive monthly decline, and was driven by a -4.0% decline in foreign orders. On the other hand, the final PMIs from the UK for May were revised up relative to the flash readings, with the composite PMI at 53.1 (vs. flash 51.8), helping sterling to strengthen +0.48% against the US Dollar. Finally, the World Bank yesterday became the latest body to downgrade their global growth forecast, now projecting a +2.9% rise in GDP for 2022 compared to their 4.1% estimate put out in January, and openly warned about the risk of stagflation.

To the day ahead now, and it’s a fairly quiet one on the calendar, but data releases include German industrial production and Italian retail sales for April, as well as the UK construction PMI for May and the final reading of US wholesale inventories for April.

end

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY NIGHT 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.03 PTS OR 0.68%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 482.72 PTS OR 2.24%    /The Nikkei closed UP 290.34 OR 1.04%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.39%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.6892    /Oil UP TO  120.62dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 121.62 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6892 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6923: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER/

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B  JAPAN

Yen crashes//inflation ripping through Japan

(zerohedge)

As Yen Crash Accelerates, It Puts Catastrophic End Of MMT Experiment In The Spotlight

WEDNESDAY, JUN 08, 2022 – 11:23 AM

Back in March, we correctly predicted that the “Yen is At Risk Of “Explosive” Downward Spiral With Kuroda Trapped“, and since then it’s gotten from bad to worse for the currency, and the country that has become ground zero for the twilight of the dismal MMT experiment, which after decades of simmering is finally approaching its terminal, catastrophic, and hyperinflationary phase.

Overnight, the yen plunged to the lowest since 2002, with the USDJPY rising as high as 134.47 and accelerating its recent push higher…

… after the “trapped” BOJ governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, stuck to his usual talking points regarding the currency, monetary policy and economy, speaking in parliament Wednesday.

Like a perpetually broken record, Kuroda said that “a stable weaker yen is positive for the overall economy although its impact varies across economic actors,” and that he was aware of criticism and complaint over the recent yen slump, adding that a rapid, major drop in the yen isn’t desirable as it increases uncertainty and makes corporate planning difficult.

Well, he may be “aware” of the risks and yet he is doing nothing just as the yen “slumps” for the simple reason we explained back in March: the BOJ can keep 10Y JGBs “stable” at 0.25% through “yield curve control” (dovish in normal times, catastrophically dovish at a time when the rest of the world is actively raising rates… but with Japan’s debt load it really has no other choice), or keep the yen stable, but not both. And so far, Kuroda has picked stable rates, while letting the yen crater.

“Kuroda’s comments were the catalyst for accelerating yen selling, as they renewed market focus on monetary policy divergence,” said Jun Kato, chief market analyst at Shinkin Asset in Tokyo. “The picture of the yen being left out as a lone loser came to the fore as markets actively price in an ECB rate hike while the Australian dollar remains on an uptrend with its clear tightening stance.”

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg notes, the yen’s historic weakness is spreading from the dollar into other currency crosses: Bloomberg’s Correlation-Weighted Currency Index for the yen – a gauge of its relative strength against a broad basket of Group-of-10 peers – slumped to a seven-year low Wednesday.

While a handful of traders are still cautious about the chances the dollar-yen will break its 2002 high of 135.15, it now appears a virtual certainty with buying momentum in yen crosses increases the likelihood of that happening.

“There is a potential that such all-out yen weakness could drive dollar-yen higher past 135 with an overshoot to around 137,” said Hideki Shibata, senior rates and currencies strategist at Tokai Tokyo Research Institute.

Indeed, as Bloomberg’s Robert Fullem writes, “the yen’s has a few resting places in its path as it relinquishes decades worth of gains” and sets the near-term target for some traders is the 2002 USD/JPY high of 135.15. Periodic waves of yen selling since it was at 110 per dollar have all exceeded 4%. The starting point for this wave was the most recent year-to-date high of 131.35. 

Longer-term, several strategist and Japan’s ex-Finance Minister Eisuke Sakakibara, otherwise known a Mr. Yen, have spoken of 150. The 1998 high is 147.66 and 152.63 is a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from 1982 peak of 277.45. An inverse head and shoulder pattern on the monthly chart says a move to these lofty levels is increasingly likely.

The simplest signal of what’s next for the yen comes from 10Y yields: as Bloomberg’s John Authers writes, the yen tends to be driven by the spread between yields on Treasury bonds and Japanese government bonds, but the latest appreciation for the dollar suggests that speculation is going beyond even that, as illustrated in this chart from Bank of America Corp.:

That increases the risk of a damaging “sudden stop” if and when the BOJ changes course. As Authers adds, the yen would behave like the removal of a currency peg (at least in theory – the BOJ is highly unlikely to intervene directly to shore up its currency as such a hawkish move would mean game over for its bond market). As DB shows in the next chart, the last time the BOJ made any attempt to sell dollars (and thus strengthen the yen) was as long ago as 1998.

And while there is no bottom in sight for the yen, the bigger problem is that this is starting to translate into higher prices, i.e., inflation. Yes, in a case of “be careful what you wish for you just might get it”, we reported in April that “Yen’s Problem Is That Japan Will Also See Inflation In 2022“, and the lower the yen falls, the greater the imported (if not the desired wage-price spiral) inflation. In fact, it will get so bad, that at some point not even the BOJ will be able to “control” yield curves, at which point it will face a dire choice: either unleash an unprecedented liquidity flood, or let the curve catch up to reality, both of which would be dire outcomes for Japan, and will set the scene for the MMT endgame as the country where unorthodox central bank policy was incubated over the past 40 years – Japan was the first country to do ZIRP, NIRP, QE and central bank equity buying – comes to a jarring, catastrophic end.

end

3c CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

Eurozone Yield Spreads Blow Out, It’s Another Crisis For Greece And Italy

WEDNESDAY, JUN 08, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Once again, the ECB has a crisis on its hands as 10-year bond rates in peripheral Europe widen relative to Germany.

Average Bond Interest Rates Through April from Europa, May 2022 is the current yield on 2022-06-06

ECB Policymakers Will Ask Lagarde to Be Tough on Fragmentation

Widening spreads have the ECB alarmed. The Bloomberg article ECB Policymakers Will Ask Lagarde to Be Tough on Fragmentation is what inspired this post. 

European Central Bank policymakers will this week ask President Christine Lagarde to use stronger language to signal that fragmentation won’t be allowed to happen and the borrowing costs of more vulnerable countries like Italy and Spain will be contained, according to people familiar with the matter.

Lagarde has said many times the central bank won’t allow financial conditions across the euro area to diverge significantly and is ready to do whatever is needed to avoid it.

10-Year Sovereign Bond Spread Over Germany 

10-Year Sovereign Bond Spread Over Germany Mish Calculation

Eurozone 10-Year Sovereign Bond Yields Long Term 

Long Term Average Bond Interest Rates Through April from Europa Through April 2022

The Big Myth

The big Eurozone myth is that all Eurozone sovereign debt has no risk. If it did, and that myth lasted for years, the yield on all Eurozone sovereign bonds would be the same.

In 2015, when Greece 10-year bonds exploded to nearly 30 percent, then ECB president Mario Draghi (now Italy’s Prime Minister) gave a speech announcing “We will do whatever it takes to save the Euro, and believe me it will be enough.” 

After the announcement yield spreads plunged. 

Q: What did Draghi do?

A: Nothing!

Seriously, the ECB did nothing. The threat alone was somehow sufficient. Draghi restored faith in peripheral debt.

Lagarde has said many times the central bank won’t allow financial conditions across the euro area to diverge significantly and is ready to do whatever is needed to avoid it.

The Eurozone gets another test doesn’t it?

Fundamental Flaw 

The Euro itself is fundamentally flawed. 

There is no one interest rate policy that makes sense for Greece, Spain, Italy, and Germany.

The sovereign debt risk is not the same and anyone with an ounce of common sense understands that.

Quantitative Tightening?

To control spreads this time, I suspect the ECB will have to buy every bond of Greece, Spain, Italy, and Portugal.

That is not compatible with Quantitative Tightening or rising yields.

What a Hoot!

For the second time ECB presidents have to come to the rescue of Greece, Spain, Italy, and Portugal. 

I am positive that another “We will do whatever it takes” announcement without doing anything will NOT suffice. 

Controlling spreads is going to be damn hard to pull off with the ECB’s interest rate at -0.50 percent and rising and quantitative tightening allegedly in the works.

Another Eurozone sovereign debt crisis is brewing and few see it.

Biden Plans to Pay Down National Debt, Tackle Inflation

Meanwhile, back in the USA, my June 3 “Hoot of the Day” was Biden Plans to Pay Down National Debt, Tackle Inflation

End of the 40-Year Bull in Debt and a “Global Depression” Threat

The bull market in bonds is over, and with that Danielle DiMartino Booth see a “Global Depression” Threat

Click on the link for an excellent video.

*  *  *

end

CREDIT SUISSE

Credit Suisse plunges after its warning of a Q2 loss in earnings as well as new round of job cuts

(zerohedge)

Credit Suisse Plunges After Warning Of Q2 Loss, Sees New Round Of Job Cuts

WEDNESDAY, JUN 08, 2022 – 07:44 AM

Yesterday it was Target (again), today it’s one of Europe’s largest banks: it is safe to say that our observation that “guidance cut” season has started was spot on.

On Wednesday morning, Credit Suisse joined the giant US retailer in issuing its third profit warning since January, when it warned that it would probably report a loss in the second quarter as its investment banking division was hit by market volatility from the war in Ukraine, the tapering of pandemic stimulus measures and monetary tightening in response to rising global inflation. Against that backdrop, the bank said it had suffered from “weak customer flows and ongoing client deleveraging, notably in the [Asia-Pacific] region”.

This was the bank’s third warning in 2022: in January, Credit Suisse warned it would report a loss for the final quarter of 2021 on the back of a slowdown in revenues at its investment bank. Three months later, it announced that it expected a first-quarter loss due to an increase in legal provisions.

The group’s investment banking division also struggled in April and May because of low equity and debt issuance and widening credit spreads as countries around the world tightened monetary policy. Revenues at investment banks across the board are down significantly from record levels last year and many are preparing for staff reductions, according to analysts.

The second biggest Swiss bank also added that it will accelerate cost-cutting measures, as market volatility pushes back the prospect of a recovery for a bank beset by crises in recent years. Executives also braced for a potential round of job cuts and a freeze on hiring in the group’s investment bank in the second half of the year along with other competitors, according to people with knowledge of the planning.

“Given the economic and market environment, we are accelerating our cost initiatives across the Group with the aim of maximizing savings from 2023 onwards,” Credit Suisse said, without providing more details.

“The main culprit is once again the investment bank, where Credit Suisse expects the fourth quarterly loss over the last six quarters,” said Vontobel analyst Andreas Venditti.

“As a consequence, Credit Suisse announces an acceleration of its cost [cutting] initiatives. Similarly to cost measures executed in the past, the consequence is likely to be a further erosion in staff morale and therefore another negative impact on revenues.”

In an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday, Credit Suisse’s global head of investment banking and capital markets David Miller said: “I’ve been using the entire first five months of this year running around seeing clients and telling them we are back.”

But other senior managers were preparing for a reduction in the bank’s headcount later this year should conditions fail to improve, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The plans include laying off underperformers, not replacing departing staff and hiring fewer graduates.

The bank is due to publish its second-quarter results on July 27, while chief executive Thomas Gottstein will provide a trading update on Thursday at a Goldman Sachs event. The bank announced an overhaul of top executive roles in April after posting a loss in the first quarter as it sought to move on from a succession of recent crises.

“As we look forward to the second half, the year 2022 will remain one of transition for Credit Suisse,” the bank said on Wednesday. “Given the economic and market environment, we are accelerating our cost initiatives across the group with the aim of maximising savings from 2023 onwards.”

Shares tumbled as much as 6.3%, to an almost one-month low, and taking their decline for the year to 30 per cent.

RBC said that weakness in businesses outside of investment banking was the biggest disappointment. Peers dropped, with Deutsche Bank down 2.7% and UBS down 2.3%. Here’s what analysts had to say:

JPMorgan analyst Kian Abouhossein (underweight) said that Credit Suisse’s warning for 2Q was expected based on peer commentary and Dealogic data, yet the pre-announcement is still worse than expected

  • Markets revenue performance is likely to be worse than peers due to the weaker performing credit businesses
  • Abouhossein notes that 2022 will be a year of transition for Credit Suisse, with accelerating cost initiatives across the bank that aim to maximize savings from 2023 onward
  • Says weaker customer flows and ongoing client deleveraging — notably in the APAC region — provide a negative read across for

UBS and Baer

  • RBC analyst Anke Reingen (sector perform) notes that while weak performance in the investment bank is not unexpected, weakness in other parts of the business, especially wealth management, is more disappointing
  • Says the report shows how challenging it is for Credit Suisse to improve its operating performance in the current environment
  • Notes that further cost saving measures are positive but will take time to show effect

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Zelensky Vows “Full De-Occupation Of Entire Territory” After Macron’s ‘Don’t Humiliate Russia’ Remarks

WEDNESDAY, JUN 08, 2022 – 10:05 AM

French President Emmanuel Macron has warned that the West must not humiliate Russia if it wants to avoid an unnecessarily prolonged conflict that could spread beyond Ukraine. Since making the remarks days ago, he’s stirred anger among different allies – both in Europe and the US and UK.

And he’s again come under fresh criticism and condemnation for the statement. He said last Friday, “We must not humiliate Russia so that the day when the fighting stops we can build an exit ramp through diplomatic means.” As part of the comments he offered France’s role as a “mediating power” in the conflict. This after having reportedly held calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin on pretty much a weekly basis since the invasion began in late February.

Macron has come under criticism from some corners of the EU for even holding the calls where he’s attempted to gain diplomatic concessions, and jump start talks again between Moscow and Kiev. But he hasn’t exactly been alone in his push for a diplomatic solution, given two other populous European nations and their leaders – namely German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi – have done the same.

Entirely to be expected, Macron immediately received pushback from the Ukrainians, with Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba writing on Twitter that “Calls to avoid humiliation of Russia can only humiliate France and every other country that would call for it.”

But the Macron comments have stirred anger in the US as well, with Republican hawk Rep. Adam Kinzinger saying “Emmanuel Macron is humiliating himself,” in weekend statements. “Russia has already been humiliated, and true to their reputation the French are trying to raise the white flag.”

Kinzinger, it should be remembered, has gone so far as to push the Biden administration toward erecting a no-fly zone, which would assuredly push the two nuclear armed superpowers into a WW3 scenario confrontation.

Meanwhile, at a moment that direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations are essentially dead, but with Turkey still attempting to intervene diplomatically toward the erection of a UN-backed ‘grain corridor’ on the Black Sea, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in media statements Tuesday that even with the latest Russian gains in Donbas his country will not cede any territory for sake of a negotiated settlement.

“We have already lost too many people to simply cede our territory,” Zelensky said in a virtual address to an event hosted by Britain’s Financial Times newspaper. He said neither is stalemate “an option” and that ultimately “We have to achieve a full deoccupation of our entire territory.”

Asked specifically about Macron’s ‘don’t humiliate Russia comments’ from days prior, Zelensky reponded: “We are not going to humiliate anyone, we are going to respond in kind.” The Ukrainian leader’s comments came as the last major holdout city of Sievierodonetsk in Luhansk province could soon fall to Russian forces. Zelensky further commented: “I don’t really understand . . . . humiliating Russia. For eight years they have been killing us. What are we talking about here?”

To be expected, hawkish pundits on this side of the Atlantic, and it should be noted safely far away from risking anything on the battlefield, are cheerleading the ‘no possible compromise’ approach even if it means a bloodier, indefinitely prolonged war. For example, a Wednesday op-ed in The Hill included the following:

This means that any peace predicated on Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty — that is, any peace that involves a Russian withdrawal from at least the territories Moscow seized since the war began on Feb. 24 — will entail some form of Russian defeat and, hence, some form of humiliation.

Russia will be humiliated regardless of how, and how greatly, Ukraine wins the war. In fact, as scores of Russian commentators make clear, many Russians already feel humiliated — and the war is far from over. They feel that way with good reason. Russia failed to capture Kyiv; it was forced to withdraw from Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy provinces; it proved incapable of seizing Kharkiv; its hold on Kherson province looks shakier by the day; and it has pretty much failed to achieve the much-expected breakthrough in the Donbas.

A handful of US generals and top officials have recently warned of a “protracted” conflict that could even take “years” – as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley recently told the House Armed Services Committee. With no side willing to compromise, or even so much as willing to enter direct negotiations (as is apparent for now), this prolonged scenario is looking increasingly likely.

END

BEGGING FOR THE APOCALYPSE: Biden provokes Putin to strike USA and NATO cities with new long-range weapons that might include nukes or EMP weapons – DC Clothesline

Inbox

Robert Hryniak10:35 AM (0 minutes ago)
to

Neocon control of the teleprompter more likely than not to cause escalation that hurts beyond the Ukraine..

Here is a list of some things happening no one wants to address that is happening in real time :

1- A number of global supply chains will collapse and a major logistical crisis could arise, including the collapse of foreign airlines that are banned from flying over Russian airspace.

2- The energy crisis will deepen in countries that have imposed sanctions on Russian energy supplies, fossil fuel prices will continue to rise, and the development of the digital economy in the world will slow down. Europe will be breaking dow come January. 

3- There will be an international food crisis, leading to famine in some countries, including parts of Europe. 

4 – A monetary and financial crisis is possible in some countries or groups of countries, combined with undermining of the stability of some national currencies, runaway inflation and the destruction of the legal system protecting private property. 

5 – New regional military conflicts will arise where the situation has not been resolved peacefully for many years or where the important interests of major international players are ignored.

6 – Terrorists, who believe that the Western authorities’ attention is now distracted by the confrontation with Russia, will become more active. Procurement of weapons on streets of European cities is ongoing from Ukrainian weapon sales on the dark net. Major violence is coming to European cities and beyond as food shortages and energy prices take their toll. 

7 – New epidemics will break out, caused by a lack of international cooperation on health and epidemiological issues or caused by the proven use of biological weapons. Likely underway but under reported 

8 – International institutions, which have not proved their effectiveness in resolving the situation in Ukraine, such as the Council of Europe, will lose their importance. How the ECB will deal with rising risks of default within Europe will be entertaining. 

9 – New international alliances will be formed, based on Anglo-Saxon criteria that are pragmatic rather than ideological. Yes, reality will trump everything else in the pursuit of survival …. Expect bank troubles. 

10 – As a result, a new security architecture is being created which recognises:
(a) the weakness of Western concepts of international relations such as “rules-based order” and other meaningless Western rubbish;
(b) the collapse of the idea of an America-centric world;
(c) the existence of internationally respected interests of those countries in sharp conflict with the Western world.

100 Days of War: How Russia is Winning in Ukraine – What The Russia!?!

Inbox

Robert Hryniak4:55 PM (11 minutes ago)
to

Interesting

END

Today’s update on the Ukraine

Inbox

Robert Hryniak4:11 PM (0 minutes ago)
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6//GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE

As White House Continues To Push Jabs For Kids, FL Surgeon General Questions Safety

TUESDAY, JUN 07, 2022 – 05:45 PM

As we’ve noted for some time, Covid-19 vaccines have limited efficacy vs. the dominant (and thankfully more mild) strain, Omicron – with CDC researchers finding in one study that Pfizer’s jab was just 20% effective against symptomatic illness after 60 days for those aged 12-15 years old, and 0% effective after five months.

One Danish study from the University of Copenhagen found that Omicron actually spreads faster in vaccinated individuals vs Delta, the previous dominant strain.

When it comes to who Omicron is killing (or ‘involved’ in killing), one UK study that looked at 814,011 cases found just 128 deaths (0.00057%), of which 42 were aged 18-59 years-old, and zero deaths under the age of 18.

Yet, despite clear and convincing evidence that Omicron is mild compared to its predecessor strains, the Biden administration continues to peddle fear.

As Stanford health policy professor Jay Bhattacharya wrote in the Wall Street Journal on Sunday – White House covid response coordinator Ashish Jha is engaging in “scare-mongering about the danger of Covid to children.”

In a May 30 tweet, Dr. Jha asserted that Covid is “a far greater threat to kids than the flu is.” He linked to an article by Harvard Medical School instructor Jeremy Faust, which claims that Covid killed more than 600 children in 2021, whereas the flu kills “an average” of only 120 children annually.

Bhattacharya demolishes Faust’s argument – noting: “Faust’s data are severely skewed, for three reasons.”

First, while flu is seldom tested, everyone admitted to a hospital for any reason gets a Covid test. Between October 2018 and September 2019, 1.4 million flu tests were reported to public-health and clinical labs. As of May 31, 2022, there had been 897 million PCR tests for Covid.

Second, evidence from audits of death certificates found that 35% of all pediatric deaths in 2020 “had co-occurring diagnosis codes that could not be plausibly categorized as either a chain-of-event or significant contributing condition,” according to a study published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Put another way, in at least 35% of pediatric “Covid deaths,” Covid couldn’t have been the cause.

Third, Dr. Faust relies on a figure for confirmed flu deaths that is well-known to underestimate actual flu deaths by an order of magnitude. Correcting for the lack of flu testing, the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases estimated 1,161 pediatric flu deaths in the 2012-13 season rather than the 142 that Dr. Faust reported. -WSJ

He then slams the Biden administration for “eroding public confidence” and undermining public health by lying about the Covid risk for children, and points out that “There are far greater risks to children than Covid. Since March 2020, more than 1,000 kids have died with Covid (an average of around 38 a month), according to the CDC. In the same period more than 1,400 children died from drug- and alcohol-related causes.”

Then there’s Florida

On Friday, state Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo openly questioned the safety of Covid-19 vaccines. During a press conference to announce an agreement with the Special Olympics to lift a vaccine mandate, the Florida Department of Health boss said: “People will say oh, you know, millions of people have taken these vaccines, they must be safe,” adding “Well, you can’t know the answer to that when it is taboo to talk about having a reaction after vaccines.

He also suggested that the vaccine has produced more side effects than others, such as flu shots, according to Florida Politics.

“There’s another vaccine that over 100 million Americans take every year, and it’s the influenza vaccine, he said, adding “And the stream of adverse events that I’ve heard from people all over this country after these vaccines is nothing like the years of my life when I’ve been in medicine and have been administering the influenza vaccines. There is a difference, and you can’t say that millions of people getting it excuses you from that.”

Regarding vaccine mandates, he said those make no sense based on what science now shows about this coronavirus and about vaccines in use now.

“Scientifically, it makes zero sense,” Ladapo said. “How can you force people to take a vaccine in order to stop transmission when that vaccine is not effective at stopping transmission?” -Florida Politics

The CDC, of course, insists that the vaccine is still better than nothing, saying in a statement that “Data show fully vaccinated persons are less likely than unvaccinated persons to acquire SARS-CoV-2, and infections with the delta variant in fully vaccinated persons are associated with less severe clinical outcomes.”

Of course, they aren’t exactly breaking it down by age and comorbidity, are they?

end

Doctors Suing Food and Drug Administration Over Ivermectin

Inbox

Robert Hryniak9:42 AM (3 hours ago)
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Doctors Suing Food and Drug Administration Over Ivermectin

The Food and Drug Administration is facing legal action over statements made about ivermectin and its use against COVID-19. (Sonis Photography/Shutterstock)

A Washington law firm has filed a federal lawsuit against the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for interfering with the use of ivermectin as a treatment for COVID-19.

The lawsuit was filed by Boyden Gray & Associates on behalf of three doctors who were disciplined for prescribing human-grade ivermectin to patients.

The firm’s founder, attorney Boyden Gray, is a former legal adviser to the Reagan and Bush administrations.

Gray told The Epoch Times that the FDA had violated well-established law that allows doctors to prescribe an FDA-approved drug as an off-label treatment.

Ivermectin was no different, he said. It was approved by the FDA in 1966.

“Congress recognized the importance of letting doctors be doctors and expressly prohibited the FDA from interfering with the practice of medicine,” Gray said.

MOST READ

“That is exactly what the FDA has done time and time again throughout this pandemic, assuming authority it doesn’t have and trying to insert itself in the medical decisions of Americans everywhere.”

The three plaintiffs in the case are Dr. Paul Marik of Virginia, Dr. Mary Bowden of Texas, and Dr. Robert Apter of Arizona.

Marik is a founder of the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care 21 Alliance (FLCCC), a national nonprofit that promotes alternative COVID-19 treatments to the government-touted vaccine.

“The FDA has made public statements on ivermectin that have been misleading and have raised unwarranted concern over a critical drug in preventing and treating COVID-19,” Marik told The Epoch Times. “To do this is to ignore both statutory limits on the FDA’s authority and the significant body of scientific evidence from peer-reviewed research.”

According to Marik, more than 80 medical trials conducted since the outbreak of COVID-19 show that ivermectin is a safe and effective treatment for the virus.

Gray said the FDA has engaged in unlawful interference with the use of ivermectin and should be held accountable for that.

The lawsuit included several statements made by the FDA that Gray said show that the administration interfered with the use of ivermectin.

They include an Aug. 21, 2021, Twitter post by the agency: “You are not a horse. You are not a cow. Seriously, y’all. Stop it.”

The post, with an image of a horse and a doctor, has a headline that reads, “Why you should not use ivermectin to treat or prevent COVID-19.”

Marik, Bowden, and Apter are among a number of U.S. doctors across the United States who have been disciplined for prescribing ivermectin.

Marik, a critical care specialist, was suspended by Sentara Norfolk General Hospital for prescribing ivermectin as a COVID-19 treatment. Bowden, an ear, nose, and throat specialist, was suspended from the Houston Medical Hospital. Apter was under investigation by both the Washington Medical Commission and Arizona Medical Board for prescribing ivermectin.

Marik was recently informed that he was under investigation by the medical licensing board in Virginia.

Gray filed the lawsuit in U.S. District Court in Texas.

The doctors are seeking a permanent injunction that would prohibit the FDA from interfering with the use of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19.


GLOBAL ISSUES/SUPPLY CHAINS

VACCINE INJURY

Vaccine Impact

45,316 Dead 4,416,778 Injured Following COVID-19 Vaccines in European Database of Adverse Reactions – Sudden Adult Death Syndrome (SADS) is New Category to Deny Vaccine Deaths

June 7, 2022 2:37 pm

The European (EEA and non-EEA countries) database of suspected drug reaction reports is EudraVigilance, verified by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), and they are now reporting 45,316 fatalities, and 4,416,778 injuries following injections of five experimental COVID-19 shots. Here are some tragic stories from those who believed in the COVID-19 vaccines, but are now dead. These stories are becoming more difficult to find, because most public notices of these deaths refuse to mention the deceased COVID-19 vaccination status. So many Internet Sleuths are now looking for cases of “sudden deaths”, especially among young, previously healthy people, and then looking for their social media accounts where often they boasted about their COVID-19 vaccines. As a result, there is now a new syndrome that has been created to try and cover up these deaths as “vaccine deaths,” which are now being referred to as “Sudden Adult Death Syndrome” (SADS), where they claim the cause of death is “unknown.” Meanwhile, the world slips into economic chaos as the pool of human resources to fill jobs to keep the economy functioning continues to shrink at a rapid pace. Welcome to the Apocalypse.

Read More…


Former Blackrock Manager Talks About Upcoming Financial Chaos Due to Loss of Working Adults from Vaccine Injuries and Deaths

June 7, 2022 6:43 pm

Former Blackrock Fund Manager Edward Dowd was interviewed by the New American today where he explained the economic chaos that is coming due to the huge loss of working age Americans who have died or become disabled after complying with employer COVID-19 vaccine mandates in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2021. He explains that even through the first quarter of 2022, insurance companies are reporting on average a 20% increase in deaths among working aged Americans. When you take these statistics and combine them with the lowering birth rates, which will now accelerate with child-bearing aged women who took the COVID-19 shots, and the fact that the banking industry has been engaging in fraud since 2008 which has never been resolved, the immediate future looks catastrophic. And their solution to this mess is to reset the economy with Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC), which will basically make slaves out of everyone. Dowd is hopeful for the long-term future, as he believes that many people will not choose to become slaves when the CBDCs are rolled out, but I do not share his optimism. The current generations that comprise most of the American workforce have already proven that they prefer slavery over taking the more difficult road of resisting the Globalists. Then there is the spiritual aspect to consider. How long will a Holy and Righteous God standby and watch this nation continue to traffic and abuse our children, in this rapidly decaying moral cesspool that is called “the United States of America” today? I personally believe the trumpet judgments in the Book of Revelation in the Bible have already started, and that the world’s population is already in the process of being drastically reduced; not by the Globalists, but by God’s judgments.

Read More…



Michael Every//

Michael Every on the day’s most important topics

Rabobank: Things We Should And Shouldn’t Say

WEDNESDAY, JUN 08, 2022 – 01:05 PM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Things we should and shouldn’t say

Yesterday saw another of our back-to-back daily mini-cycles of market denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance,…and then new denial. Because stocks went down and bond yields up on Monday, it was obviously time for stocks to go up and yields to come down on Tuesday.

Yet, again, nobody paid enough attention to commodities, where oil went up again – Brent is now nearly $121 despite all that is happening, and not happening in China. More on that later.

Nobody paid any attention to Chad either, Africa’s fifth-largest country, whose government just declared a “food and nutrition emergency” after a poor harvest and unaffordable grain imports. That’s 14m people discovering what well-fed participants in Western markets mean when they euphemistically say “demand destruction”: indeed, the phrase is arguably placing itself up there with certain others as something one oughtn’t to be either saying or allowing to happen.  

As a report from the ground (not from a well-fed Western journalist working from home) puts it, “In the village of Falke, some 665km (413 miles) from the capital Niamey, Tassiou Adamou, a farmer, told DW that this year’s harvest will likely be poor because producers cannot afford to buy enough fertilizer. “Groundnuts, which are our main cash crop, need fertilizer,” Adamou pointed out. “Until last season, a bag of fertilizer cost 17,000 CFA francs. This year, it has reached 30,000,” he said, adding that it is impossible to produce much for those in the countryside. “If you used to use three bags of fertilizer for your field, today, you can only have one bag with the same amount. Where you used to harvest 50 bunches of millet, you can barely produce 30 bunches without fertilizer.”” Much of Africa is in the same boat – and it is rapidly sinking.

US Treasury Secretary Yellen told to Congress, and social media, “We now are entering a period of transition from one of historic recovery to one that can be marked by stable and steady growth. Making this shift is a central piece of the president’s plan to get inflation under control without sacrificing the economic gains we’ve made.”  That is as Friday may see an upside surprise to US CPI, and the Atlanta Fed downgraded its estimate of Q2 GDP growth to just 0.9%: and we still have three weeks left for revisions to imply the US is already in a technical recession.

Moreover, Philip Marey, with exquisite timing, just published ‘The inevitable recession. As he puts it, the negative supply shocks from Covid and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are causing headwinds, *and* a wage-price spiral has now started that will be difficult to stop without the Fed hiking the economy into recession next year. Even if the US is able to absorb the exogenous shocks, the Fed response to the wage-price spiral will cause a recession from within anyway.

That is echoed from the logistical coal-face. FreightWaves argues ‘US import demand is dropping off a cliff:  Inbound container volumes to the US are reverting to pre-pandemic levels’. As the industry, and 2021’s ‘In Deep Ship’ made clear, we could always take away supply-chain pressures with a consumer recession. That’s “demand destruction” again, implying an awful increase in unemployment, homelessness, and bankruptcies.

The World Bank also slashed its 2022 global GDP growth forecast to 2.9% from 3.2%, warning of stagflation and several years of above-average inflation ahead. President Malpass said, “The downside risk is that it could be a global recession. One of the key variables is whether supply comes back online in order to add growth and slow down the inflation rate. But this is the sharpest slowdown in 80 years.”

As Malpass says, and Yellen recently said she got wrong, it is all about SUPPLY as well as demand. If one only looks at demand, the signal is for a Fed pivot, lower bond yields, and (perversely) higher stocks. It is also for an unspoken risk of socio-economic unrest, because overall prices won’t come down, just the rate of inflation will. People who already can’t pay their bills will find they don’t have a job either. In which case, the level of rates is largely irrelevant.

FreightWaves has important things to say on that supply side, which economists should have been listening to in 2021 to see that inflation was not going to be transitory:

“If bookings continue to soften through June, we expect to see spot rates on this trade lane decline further, but ocean carriers may go to greater lengths than ever before to try and protect their record-setting earnings. They have already been cutting capacity on major trade routes through measures such as blank sailings and reassigning vessels to other services, but if the decline in volumes accelerates in the weeks ahead, we may see the alliances test their strength and discipline like never before. If rates start dropping quickly, it is reasonable to suspect that the ocean carriers that have not locked in a majority of their allocations in longer-term contracts may begin aggressively undercutting one another as they compete in the spot market.”

In other words, we may soon find out if the industry acts in oligopolistic fashion or not – ironically just after a US investigation concluded ‘not’. If the supply of vessels falls to match lower demand then spot freight rates will stay elevated, if off recent peaks, and long-term rates were just signed at record high levels. That will make the politics and geopolitics of the industry ‘interesting’. At the same time, and leaning back to Philip’s argument, US ports are likely to see contract-related strike action ahead, which could bung the whole industry up again.

FreightWaves also underlines ‘How new EU sanctions on Russia will shake up global energy trade. Once the new insurance ban kicks in, the industry will be “dramatically” impacted. Experts Poten & Partners say Russia would need 20 Aframaxes, 51 Suezmaxes, and 43-48 VLCCs (the biggest ships) prepared to break such sanctions, as they do with Iranian and Venezuelan oil, and “Finding these vessels and arranging insurance could be very challenging.”  In short, there is a reason projections for energy prices keep marching higher, taking other commodities with them.

Moreover, lower rates won’t grow more food right now: in fact they will grow less if energy prices spike higher as a result.

While it is true that higher rates are not an appropriate policy response to a painful supply-side shock, that only applies if the shock is brief and a one-off, not a structural attack; not one where wage-price spirals are in place; and not one where the government is trying to help fiscally.

On the latter, ahead of the ECB tomorrow, and its plan to also stop peripheral bond yield spreads blowing out, @RobinBrooksIIF notes that for years, all of Italy’s net government bond issuance has been bought by the ECB. It’s almost as if this were war-time monetary financing – it only didn’t produce any inflation until now because there was no fiscal stimulus, or growth, which was the deliberate structure of the ‘new normal’ paradigm. Yet that changes once you start giving people money to prop up demand, as now vs. energy and food price spikes.

Brooks adds, “What does ECB “spread control” mean? Let’s take the most extreme scenario for sake of illustration – say the ECB announces a hard cap on spreads, i.e. Italy’s 10-year spread over Bunds is no longer allowed to go over – say – 150 bps. What would this imply for the ECB?

Such a cap commits the ECB to potentially unlimited purchases of Italian debt if there’s a speculative attack, if Italian growth falls or if deficits widen. This is incompatible with the “no monetary financing” rule that governs the ECB. An outright cap is therefore NOT possible.

When ECB QE started in 2015, purchases could not deviate from the capital key, so it was in principle not possible to do spread control. PEPP moved in the direction of spread control, since it allowed deviations from the capital key, but PEPP was a one-time program… So – if the ECB really wants to go down this path – the trick will be to design a permanent program that does not run afoul of the “no monetary financing” rule. That is far from trivial and may be subject to legal challenges based on past experience…”

As someone replied to him, “Too bad that what we are experiencing and will live is a war economy. The alternative, I’m afraid, will be food ration books.”

Both of the arguments above are true.

With JPY past 133 and falling, also note the Bloomberg story today, that ‘Tumbleweeds Blow Through Japan’s Bond Market on BOJ Dominance’, where “Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond didn’t change hands once on the open market Tuesday in a fresh sign of the country’s dysfunctional debt market. It was the first time since Dec. 27 that there was no trading volume in the notes, with the only activity coming from the Bank of Japan’s debt purchase plan.” Coming soon to a market near you, it seems.

To repeat, it is true we people say higher rates are not an appropriate policy response to a painful supply-side shock. Yet it also true when others say this shock is not a brief one-off but a structural attack, with wage-price spirals in place, and a government helping fiscally.

The key issue is being willing to say both together as a new, difficult truth: the global rich, who set rates, have to decide if they will sacrifice their asset prices to help the global poor eat. If we won’t say that, can we at least say that we have a choice between putting calories in rich people’s cars or in poor people’s mouths?

To conclude, markets say “demand destruction”, but won’t say it can mean “mass starvation”.

Some are now able to say “stagflation”, but many in markets weren’t allowed to until recently.

Some can say “recession”, but many in markets and politics still aren’t allowed to.

Yet nobody wants to say “depression” because there is *still* the assumption that, bad as things are, somehow a ‘hockey-stick’ bounce lies on the other side. Not sticks, stones, burning torches, and pitchforks.

Should we say that? Many will say no, we shouldn’t. Yet when the tail risks are so big, and the need for correct action to avoid them are so urgent, the question actually is, why shouldn’t we say it?

end

7. OIL ISSUES//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA/PAKISTAN

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0731 UP 0.0034 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED

USA/ YEN 1323.91   UP 1.092 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2546 DOWN   0.0040

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 22.03 POINTS UP 0.68%

 Hang Sang CLOSED  UP 482.92 PTS OR 2.24%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.39%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 482.92 PTS OR 2.24%   

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.03 PTS UP 0.68% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP  0.39% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  UP 290.34 OR 1.04%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1848.25

silver:$21.92

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 102.38  UP 6  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

 WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.49%  UP 5  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.243% UP 0     AND 5/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.47%// UP 3   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.46  UP 7   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.35%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0739 UP  41    or 41 basis points

USA/Japan: 133.86 UP 1.087  OR YEN DOWN  109  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2553 DOWN 0.0033 OR 33  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP .0011 OR 11 BASIS pts  to 1.2525

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.6898  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.6901

TURKISH LIRA:  17.12  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.243

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2  IN basis points from MONDAY at  2.992% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.142 UP 2 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 102.32 UP 0   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 11.66 PTS OR 0.15%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 115.44  POINTS OR 0.79%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 61.01 PTS OR 0.94% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 10.00 OR 0116%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 126.44 PTS OR  0.52

%

WTI Oil price 120.64   12: EST

Brent Oil:  121.93  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  59.56  UP 1.50        RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.35

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0719 UP   .0021   OR  UP 21 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2541 down .0047  or  47 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 134.19 UP 1.36//YEN down 136 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2558 up 0019 (CDN dollar down 19 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 122.40

Brent OIL:  123.82

USA 10 yr bond yield: 3.031 up 6 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.179  UP 6  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.12

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  59.40 UP  1.65/ ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 269.76 PTS OR 0.81%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 96.55 PTS OR 0.76%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 24.16 UP 0.14 PTS (0.58)%

GLD: 172.75 DOWN 0.19 PTS OR 0.11%

SLV/ 20.52 DOWN .19 PTS OR 0.83%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Henry Hub Hammered As Texas Tea Rips; Gold Pops, Bitcoin & Bonds Drop

WEDNESDAY, JUN 08, 2022 – 04:01 PM

With barely any macro again, today was another day of illiquidity and extremes across asset classes – NatGas was dumped, Oil pumped; Crypto dropped as the dollar popped; Bond yields jumped as stocks slumped.

US Stocks drifted lower overnight, after yesterday’s magical rescue bid, were volatile around the open (Nasdaq jumped as Small Caps slumped), before starting their drop shortly after the European close. Small Caps were the biggest loser on the day while The Dow and Nasdaq were the prettiest horses in the glue factory…

Treasuries were sold, not helped by a really ugly 10Y auction,

Source: Bloomberg

10Y pushed back above 3.00% again…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar managed modest gains on the day but was sold once again during the US session after a strong overnight bid…

Source: Bloomberg

Yen weakness helped the dollar, as the Japanese currency tumbled to its weakest against the greenback since 2002… (we note the 2002 lows were 135.15 JPY to the dollar, about 1 big figure away from current spot)…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were lower today with Bitcoin back down testing $30k again. Ethereum slightly outperformed after successfully completing its ltest tes on the path towards ETH 2.0 (PoS)…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold found support at $1850 once again…

Oil prices rallied today after UAE warned on OPEC+ ability to increase production further and said that prices are nowhere near their peak (given China’s imminent demand resurgence). WTI topped $123 intraday…

Retail Gas prices hit a new record high today at $4.955 (still below the price in the UK, but catching up fast)…

Source: Bloomberg

US NatGas was hammered after Freeport LNG Export Terminal suffered a small explosion (less exports means more domestic supply)…

European gas (green below) rallied on the news as less exports means less supply and higher prices for the Russia-bound Europeans…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, in terms of turmoil-inducing panic in markets, we suspect The White House is in full headless-chicken mode as President Biden’s approval rating plunges to a new record low…

Source: Bloomberg

How long before politics punches Powell in the face?

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING/

II)USA data

END

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

Milan Sabioncello2:08 PM (53 minutes ago)
to me

https://m.theepochtimes.com/studies-link-incurable-prion-disease-with-covid-19-vaccine_4511204.html

END.

iii)a.  USA economic stories

Stocks Puke Into Red After SEC’s Gensler Proposes Major Market Structure Change

WEDNESDAY, JUN 08, 2022 – 12:51 PM

Confirming what we reported two days,  SEC Chair Gary Gensler said he has asked agency staff to consider requiring brokerages to route individual investors’ orders to buy or sell stocks into auctions, as part of an effort to increase competition in the market. These proposed (and unprecedented) changes to market structure would make it virtually impossible to frontrun retail orders.

Right now, there isn’t a level playing field among different parts of the market: wholesalers, dark pools, and lit exchanges,” Gensler said in remarks prepared for an event hosted by Piper Sandler.

“It’s not clear, given the current market segmentation, concentration, and lack of a level playing field, that our current national market system is as fair and competitive as possible for investors.”

The potential change would represent a major shakeup to the lucrative business of executing trades in the stock market, and directly impact how brokerages including Citadel Securities, Virtu Financial and Robinhood Markets process many retail trade orders.

In addition, Mr. Gensler said he has directed SEC staff to potentially allow stock exchanges to quote shares in increments of less than 1 cent. This could enable venues such as Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange to better compete with wholesalers, which can beat the prices publicly displayed on exchanges by adding or subtracting hundredths of a penny to the price of a stock.

“Why not allow all venues to have an equal opportunity to execute at sub-penny increments?” Mr. Gensler said in the speech.

HOOD shares are down hard… having already puked earlier in the week on the leaks of Gensler’s plans…

And may go lower…

Which seems to have prompted a broad puke in the markets…

The bottom line: don’t hold your breath, but it appears that some 13 years after this website first brought attention to the widespread scam that is HFT, the “high freaks” may be on their way out.

iii b USA//inflation stories/log jams etc/

US Refining Bottleneck The Culprit For Your Gas Pump Pains

WEDNESDAY, JUN 08, 2022 – 02:59 PM

There is no quick fix to ease America’s pain at the pump because refiners struggle to meet the demand for diesel and gasoline, sending fuel prices soaring due to declining national stockpiles and fears of shortages

The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data shows the U.S. refining capacity is structurally short and down 1 million barrels from April 2020 (a month after the lockdowns began) to 17.95 million bpd as of June. 

“When the coronavirus pandemic occurred, demand for global oil was not expected to fall for a long time, and yet so much refining capacity was cut permanently,” Ravi Ramdas, managing director of energy consultancy Peninsula Energy, told Reuters

Goldman Damien Courvalin wrote in a note (available to professional subs) that “rising dislocation between crude and petroleum product prices finally reflects the current extreme tightness in global refiningdriven by seasonality, disruptions as well as large-capacity closures.” He said refinery tightness would keep refined product prices higher throughout the year and also noted more refinery closures are slated by the end of next year. 

“The Covid demand shock, the accompanying excessively weak future demand expectations and the diversion of energy capital by ESG have led to c.4.2 mb/d of refinery capacity closures since 2019 with another 1 mb/d planned to be closed by end-2023. This resulted in near mid-cycle utilization rates of 82% at the start of the year, even before the China and Russia disruptions and in spite of partially IMO2020 related capacity expansions, as demand also quickly normalized. Looking forward we expect net capacity to fall -0.5 in 2022 and rise 1.5 mb/d in 2023 (YoY Dec-Dec) outside of China and Russia,” Courvalin noted. 

The Goldman analyst maps out that available global refinery capacity has been in a downward sloping curve since early 2020. This means as long as demand for refined products stays elevated, prices at the pump will remain higher because of the bottleneck in no new capacity coming online for a few years. 

The worsening refining bottleneck, especially in the U.S., was explained by Mike Wirth, the CEO of oil giant Chevron, who recently told Bloomberg TV that there’s not enough refining capacity to meet the demand for gasoline and diesel because no new refinery will ever be built in the U.S. again. 

Wirth explains his reason: “You’re looking at committing capital ten years out, that will need decades to offer a return for shareholders, in a policy environment where governments around the world are saying, ‘We don’t want these products to be used in the future.'” 

The crisis in refined products is because of the green energy transition forcing oil/gas companies, like Chevron and other majors, to not just shutter refineries but not invest and expand refinery capacity. This colossal failure has resulted in the national average for regular fuel approaching $5 a gallon by the end of this week. 

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3JlZnNyY19zZXNzaW9uIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9mZiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0Zndfc2Vuc2l0aXZlX21lZGlhX2ludGVyc3RpdGlhbF8xMzk2MyI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJpbnRlcnN0aXRpYWwiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3R3ZWV0X3Jlc3VsdF9taWdyYXRpb25fMTM5NzkiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoidHdlZXRfcmVzdWx0IiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1533577048421179398&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fcommodities%2Fus-refining-bottleneck-culprit-your-gas-pump-pains&sessionId=88c945838b9e6769b9572d9d2b576f2d092d944b&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=b45a03c79d4c1%3A1654150928467&width=550px

… and here’s something else to fret about since refining capacity is limited: 

“If refineries in the U.S. get damaged during hurricane season, or anything else contributes to the market’s tightness, we could be in real trouble,” a Brazilian refining executive told Reuters. 

So it comes as no surprise President Biden’s SPR release of 1 million bpd has yet to arrest prices at the pump. It’s not that there’s not enough crude; the real problem is a bottleneck in refining — Americans that are suffering from out-of-control energy prices (Goldman now sees crude hitting $140 a barrel) should blame the green energy transition and those who support it for their financial misery as stagflationary threats grow.

END 

END

iv)swamp stories

King REPORT

The King Report June 8 2022 Issue 6776Independent View of the News
Target Warns of Weaker Profit as it Faces Overstuffed Stores, Inflation-Weary Shoppers
Retailer aims to cancel orders, use promotions to make way for in-demand goods
https://www.wsj.com/articles/target-warns-profit-will-drop-because-it-has-too-much-stuff-11654599664
 
Target shares fall as it expects squeezed profits from aggressive plan to get rid of unwanted inventory   https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/07/target-markdowns-plan-to-cut-inventory.html
 
@BloombergAsia: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen tells US lawmakers that inflation is likely to stay high and that she ought not to have termed big price increases as “transitory” last year
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-07/yellen-defends-biden-spending-as-she-acknowledges-inflation-woes


ESMs opened mixed on Monday night but tumbled after 20:00 ET.  They hit a bottom at 1:28 ET.  The ensuing 25-handle rally ended at 4:37 ET.  ESMs and stocks then tumbled anew on Target’s inventory woes, which indicate economic ebbing.  We all know what was likely to happen next.
 
ESMs hit a daily low of 4076.00 at 9:13 ET.  Then, someone pushed ESMs to 4107.00 at 9:52 ET.  After a 16-handle retreat in 16 minutes, someone MANIPULATED ESMs to 4138.00 at 10:46 ET.  Qui bono?
 
Once again, a negative fundamental development (Target) fostered a negative economic narrative (retail demand ebbing = recession).  Someone then manipulated ESMs to change the negative narrative and negative psychology.  This has recurred incessantly this year.  Why?  Qui bono?

 

ESM, Central Time – A clear picture of blatant manipulation – Qui bono?
 
There was no news, no reason for anyone to aggressively force ESMs higher after the NYSE open.  We noted in our Monday missive that bulls would be aggressive early this week because May CPI is due on Friday.   But the manipulation was something else.  PS – The BoE is expected to hike rates on Thursday.
 
ESMs sank 30 handles by 12:16 ET.  Obviously, the early buyers were not institutional types that are tied to VWAP or other trade execution evaluation systems.  Someone then pushed ESMs sharply higher, creating a Noon Balloon.  The rally continued until ESMs got within 2 handles of the high. 
 
ESMs traded within a 5-handle range from 13:10 ET until they exploded higher at 14:05 ET.  ESMs hit a new high of 4151.25 at 14:34 ET.  After a 15-minute retreat, ESMs surged anew.  ESMs hits a daily high of 4164.00, +88.00 from the low, at 15:50 ET.  ESMs then eased 15-handles lower into the close.
 
Someone was very determined to force ESMs higher and change negative narratives and psychology.
 
The Big Guy’s handlers have proclaimed that during June, Joe will commence a scheme to gaslight Americans into believing that the US economy is better than they realize – and Americans should bestow hosanas on The Big Guy for his economic genius. 
 
The Big Guy on Monday with this whopper of a ‘big lie’: “My plans have produced the strongest, fastest, most wide-spread economic recovery America has ever experienced.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UH_qkR0YMM
 
WH Press Sec yesterday: … the economy is in a better place than it has been historically… so we’re in a good position to take on inflation…”  https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1534269367608823813
 
Are there any limits to what Team Big Guy will do to euchre Americans about the economy?  They have a Herculean task ahead of them!
 
@AtlantaFed: On June 7, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q22022 is 0.9%. https://bit.ly/32EYojR
 
@charliebilello: In a new Wall Street Journal-NORC poll, 35% of Americans said they were not satisfied at all with their present financial situationthe highest level of dissatisfaction recorded since the poll began in 1972.   https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1534197595119271936
 
U.S. trade deficit narrows sharply in April (Stagflation evidence)
Exports increase 3.5%; imports decline 3.4% (reduced import demand on inventory glut)
At $27.2 billion, petroleum exports were the highest on record. Food exports were also the highest on record, with the nation selling $2.1 billion more worth of soybeans… (Inflation) https://t.co/yBluw2S0M7
 
@Schuldensuehner: Americans ramp up credit card usage as high prices continue to bite. Revolving credit, which mostly includes credit card balances, grew at an annualized rate of 19.6% and totaled $1.103tn in April, just breaking a pre-pandemic record of $1.1tn. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/07/bus
 
Commercial Property Sales Slow as Rising Interest Rates Sink Deals
Down 16% compared with the same month a year ago… The decline followed 13 consecutive months of increases… Hotels, office buildings, senior housing and industrial properties recorded big drops in sales…   https://www.wsj.com/articles/commercial-property-sales-slow-as-rising-interest-rates-sink-deals-11654594380
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Yet another blatant ESM manipulation after a negative fundamental appeared
Bonds rallied sharply; Gasoline and oil declined
 
Negative aspects of previous session
The US stock market is being gamed
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Who is manipulating ESMs, and for whose benefit?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4135.20
Previous session High/Low4164.86; 4080.19
 
Who Is Paying for Twitter Bots to Spam Everyone with The Same Stupid Pro-Biden Spin?
Within mere seconds of each other, dozens of accounts tweeted appreciation for Biden and Democrats in Congress for passing a $1.9 trillion spending bill… The barrage of pro-Biden lies came on Monday afternoon shortly after the Democratic National Committee’s main Twitter account thanked Biden for making the American job market “the strongest it’s been since just after World War II,” something Biden claimed in a speech this weekend…
https://thefederalist.com/2022/06/07/who-is-paying-for-twitter-bots-to-spam-everyone-with-the-same-stupid-pro-biden-spin/
 
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI): “On the issue of gas prices, I drove my electric vehicle from Michigan to here last weekend and went by every gas station and it didn’t matter how high it was.”
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1534204175076282371
 
Inconvenient truth from the EIA for the green crowd that believes EVs will end the need for fossil fuels:
Fossil fuels are the largest sources of energy for electricity generationNatural gas was the largest source—about 38%—of U.S. electricity generation in 2021…Coal was the second-largest energy source for U.S. electricity generation in 2021—about 22%…Nuclear energy was the source of about 19% of U.S. electricity generation in 2021…Many renewable energy sources are used to generate electricity and were the source of about 20% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2021…
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us.php
 
White House defends US-Saudi ‘strategic’ partnership, after Biden vowed to make country a ‘pariah’ state (Letting “Biden be Biden” has consequences.  Can’t wait for the June operation!)
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-defends-us-saudi-strategic-partnership-after-bidens-planned-pariah-state
 
SEC Preparing Historic Overhaul of Market Structure, Making Retail Frontrunning Virtually Impossible – one idea that has gained traction is to require brokerages to send most individual investors’ orders to be routed into auctions where trading firms compete to execute them…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sec-preparing-historic-overhaul-market-structure-making-retail-frontrunning-virtually
‘Liquidity is terrible’: poor trading conditions fuel Wall Street tumult
Small trades are triggering outsized price swings in the world’s biggest capital markets
    “People [banks] are not willing to commit capital,” said Edwards…
https://www.ft.com/content/cbc47bbf-f158-4330-9e29-5b0b71935140
 
Today – As delineated above, someone was determined to manipulate ESMs higher despite or because of negative economic developments.  The key for today and perhaps for the remainder of June is the presence or absence of the manipulation – particularly after negative news or economic data.
 
Traders will try to ascertain as quickly as possible if the manipulators are in the market.  Old World traders could liquidate into the European close at 11:30 ET on fear of hawkish BoE action tomorrow.  US traders might do the same thing for the same reason during late US trading.
 
ESMs are 6.50 at 21:00 ET.
 
Expected economic data: April Wholesale Inventories 2.1% m/m; Yellen testifies at the House 10:00 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4224; 100-day MA: 4323; 150-day MA: 4442; 200-day MA: 4447
DJIA 50-day MA: 33,430; 100-day MA: 33,906; 150-day MA: 34,550; 200-day MA: 34,653
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4987.97 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4359.32 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3992.29 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4163.86 triggers a buy signal
 
Senators (“even Democrats”) want Biden to stay out of gun talks
President Biden’s involvement wouldn’t be “helpful” after he called on Congress to pass gun control measures, some of which aren’t even supported by all 50 Democrats…even Democrats on Capitol Hill think discussions have a better chance of bearing fruit without the involvement of the president or his team…   https://thehill.com/news/administration/3513713-senators-want-biden-to-stay-out-of-gun-talks/
 
@ShelbyTalcott (Actor McConaughey, enlisted by Team Joe, from the White House: Find a middle ground, a place where most of us Americans live anyway, especially on this issue, cuz I promise you, America — we are not as divided as we are being told we are,”
 
@greg_price11: Matthew McConaughey: “We need to invest in mental healthcare. We need safer schools. We need to restrain sensationalized media coverageWe need to restore our family values. We need to restore our American values. And we need responsible gun ownership.”
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1534246011019079680
 
@theblaze: Matthew McConaughey: “We need background checks, we need to raise the minimum age to purchase an AR-15 to 21, we need a waiting period for those rifles, and red flag laws.”
 
Matt also said, “Responsible gun owners are fed up with the Second Amendment being abused and hijacked by some deranged individuals.”
 
McConaughey tried to thread the needle on gun control.  Reportedly he has political ambitions.  Why do US politicians, the MSM, and Donald Trump believe that celebrities, even B-list ones, have forceful influence over Americans?  If this were true, the USA would be solidly blue – for decades!
 
Why Black Americans Are Buying More Guns – WSJ
The people who bear the brunt of rising violent crime are taking steps to protect themselves.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-black-americans-are-buying-more-guns-ownership-laws-crime-violence-protection-11654635686
 
Yesterday, these tweets from 2019 recirculated on Twitter.  A young liberal icon: “How many AR-15s did Jesus own?”  Someone retorted, “Not enough to avoid being murdered by his government.”
https://twitter.com/LennyDykstra/status/1534162861613846529
 
Hunter Biden’s Laptop Lady Got $20K Federal Stimulus for ‘Female–Owned Sole Proprietorship’
A Las Vegas callgirl who comes up repeatedly on Hunter Biden‘s laptop hit the jackpot with a $20,207 check from the federal government for her “female owned sole proprietorship” shortly after her well-connected client’s father moved into the White House, according to federal records… (Not a parody!)
https://www.dailywire.com/news/hunter-bidens-laptop-lady-got-20k-federal-stimulus-for-female-owned-sole-proprietorship
 
Reports say The Big Guy is livid that he is being compared to Jimmy Carter.  It’s Carter who should upset.  Jimmy Carter is a magnitude smarter and a far nicer human being.  Biden has always been a big-mouthed, BS-ing, braggard, with few redeeming qualities – a less intelligent Donald Trump.
 
DeSantis signs bill addressing school safety in wake of Uvalde shooting
The bill, known as HB 1421, takes several steps to prevent school shootings in the future including requiring school safety officers to make complete crisis intervention training, allowing school safety officers to make arrests on charter school property and requiring school districts annually certify that 80% of school personnel have received youth mental health awareness training…
https://www.foxnews.com/us/desantis-bill-school-safety-uvalde
 
Dershowitz: The Indictment of Navarro is Unconstitutional
Navarro has a strong claim of executive privilege that should be decided by the courts before any indictment can lawfully issue. [A]bsent a judicial order, he cannot lawfully be indicted for invoking executive privilege and refusing to reveal arguably privileged material just because a committee of Congress, controlled by Democrats, has voted that he should…
     Navarro’s indictment violates several key constitutional rights, including due process, fair warning and executive privilege. It also violates the separation of powers… https://t.co/3LqgVREqwX
 
From firebombing protesters to lying FBI agents, a two-tier justice system sharpens in focus
Anger and disbelief boiled over last month in the Olympic gymnast community when DOJ announced it wasn’t taking any action against two ex-FBI agents who botched the Larry Nassar sex abuse case, despite evidence they had given false answers to the department’s internal probe…
    Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.)… questioned how Hunter Biden, the president’s son, managed to falsely deny drug abuse on his federal firearms application and avoid any prosecution when his father is now seeking to target many lawful gun owners
   George Washington University law professor Jonathan Turleya self-described liberal Democrat… noted in his blog Monday that the two lawyers were given a “generous” new plea deal after being “accused of throwing a Molotov cocktail into a police vehicle in New York. They were facing domestic terrorism charges and the possibility of 30 years in jail… (Where is McConnell & the GOPe?)
https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/firebombing-protesters-lying-fbi-agents-two-tier-justice-system-sharpens
 
CBS: Former Philadelphia Congressman Pleads Guilty in Ballot Stuffing Case
Fraudulently stuffing ballot boxes for Democratic candidates between 2014 and 2018…
https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2022/06/06/michael-myers-pleads-guilty-ballot-stuffing-philadelphia/
 
New Jersey voter rolls have over 8,000 duplicate registrations, report
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/new-jersey-voter-rolls-have-more-8000-duplicate-registrations-report
 
@ellencarmichael: There have been dozens of bombings and attacks on churches, crisis pregnancy centers and pro-life organizations in past few months, and for how quickly people use the term “domestic terrorist,” it’s really something to see no such labels placed on this ideology-driven violence.
 
@charliespiering: At 8:45 pm, Biden finally recognizes D-Day.  Biden’s post on Twitter occurred just hours after Breitbart featured a story on his neglect and @BretBaier and @JacquiHeinrich called him out on Fox.
 
The internecine verbal warfare at the Washington Post is further evidence that MSM reporters can hector, harass, even dox people 24/7, but they are so thin-skinned that the slightest rebuke or jibe at them instantly provokes them to meltdown like a spoiled child pitching a tantrum.
 
 
Internal Capitol Police review found sweeping intelligence, security failures on Pelosi’s watch
Secret after-action report cited widespread ineptitude and inadequate riot squads, found closing of open-source intelligence unit may have contributed to tragedy.
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/internal-capitol-police-review-found-sweeping-intelligence-security-failures
 
@mercedesschlapp: Reminder that the January 6 committee is being led by Rep. Bennie Thompson, who voted to overturn the 2004 election, Rep. Jamie Raskin, who voted to overturn the 2016 election, and Rep. Adam Schiff, who claimed for years that he had proof of Russian collusion.
 
Even segments of the MSM admit that the prime-time televised Jan 6 Committee Hearings are a transparent attempt to deflect public attention from The Big Guy’s ineptness ahead of the midterms. 
 
January 6 committee’s ‘Hail Mary distraction’ from economic crises will likely fail: Sexton, Travis
The Jan. 6 committee retained ex-ABC News President James Goldston to produce the scheduled primetime TV event.  https://www.foxnews.com/media/january-6-committee-hail-mary-distraction-economic-crises-fail-sexton-travis
 
@EricMMatheny: Why didn’t the GOP ever form a Summer 2020 Riots Committee and televise those hearings? (Because the GOPe is craven, effete, and corrupted?)
 
Steve Bannon has subpoenaed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and members of the House select committee investigating the January 6 insurrection as he builds his defense – CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/07/politics/bannon-pelosi-contempt/index.html
 
Macron draws new wave of criticism over call not to ‘humiliate’ Russia
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/macron-draws-new-wave-of-criticism-over-call-not-to-humiliate-russia/ar-AAY8VYp
 
@RyanGirdusky: We need Red Flag laws for drivers immediately, especially if they’re from New Jersey or Maryland. (As a former NJ resident, Fact Check: True!)
 
@ChristinaPushaw: Democracy dies when media lies. (WaPo motto: “Democracy dies in darkness.”)

Greg Hunter interviewing Ed Dowd

CV19 Vax Deadliest Fraud in History – Edward Dowd

By Greg Hunter On June 7, 2022 In Market AnalysisPolitical Analysis48 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 

Wall Street money manager Edward Dowd has made billions of dollars for companies such as Black Rock picking good businesses with good products.  He can also spot a fraud, and Dowd says Pfizer simply made up the research that said it’s CV19 vaccine was safe and effective.  According to Dowd, it was neither safe or effective.  Dowd says, “The data was garbage.  As far as I am concerned, they made up the data.  It was garbage.”  Dowd thinks the CV19 injections will be the deadliest fraud in history.  Dowd explains, “This is something we have never seen in the history of our country and the history of the world for that matter.  We have a product (CV19 Vax) that is so fraudulent and so deadly from an acute basis and kills you right away, but the long-term implications of this health impact we don’t know yet.  It’s looking grim.  This is going to be with us for decades.  This is going to change the face of the world.  We have to try to control the outcome because people are going to try to take advantage of this and spin it and turn it into the ‘great reset.’  We are not going to allow the ‘great reset’ to happen.  If it happens, it’s going to happen under our power, and we are going to take control and not some nameless elites that say I am going to own nothing and eat bugs.”

Some people say the perpetrators of the deadly vax fraud are going to get away with it.  Dowd says not a chance and explains, “The problem with this fraud is it is a bridge too far.  220 million Americans took the vax (at least one shot).  Three million Americans are disabled, and it’s probably higher, and those disabilities are going to continue to grow.  The economic impact, the young working age men and women dying in their families and the psychological effects show this is not your run of the mill financial fraud.  This is a different kind of fraud, and this is a trust issue.  It violated trust on so many levels that the politicians are going to turn on these people at some point. . . . These things don’t end until the elite pay a personal price, and that’s where we are headed.  Some of these people are going to pay a very personal price.  I don’t wish that on them, and this is why they need to come forward and start whistleblowing so they can be protected in jails.  These crimes are so difficult to hide that there will be that kind of action.  If you look at the story of Marie Antoinette and the saying “Let them eat cake,” the French Revolution did not end well for the elites.   The consciousness is rising in this country at an alarming fast rate. . . .”

How does Dowd know we have passed an inflection point?  Dowd says, “In October, November and December of last year, people all over the media, celebrities and people I knew were saying the unvaccinated are the problem and they need to be put in camps.  Well, that chatter has disappeared.  They have not apologized for that, but doubts are starting to enter people’s minds. . . . It’s like the stages of grief.  The first one is denial, then anger, then depression and then acceptance.  We are in the denial/anger stage.  We are still in the denial part, but we are quickly approaching anger.”

In the economy and what’s coming, Dowd points out, “What’s going on is we are basically at the end of the super bubble. . . . We are going to have to have a new economic system . . . and what’s going on is the collapse of that.  The defaults are coming, and they are going to start in other countries first and make their way here. . . .It’s going to be a disaster, and we are going to see a huge amount of defaults, bankruptcies and collapse of the economy. . . .99.9% of the world does not know the social contract has been broken.  What does that mean?  It means all the entitlements, social security, the pensions, and there are a lot in Europe, they are gone.  They are not going to get paid.  That’s the bottom line.”

There is much more in the 50 min. interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he as he goes One-on-One with money manager and investment expert Edward Dowd for 6.7.22.

(https://usawatchdog.com/cv19-vax-deadliest-fraud-in-history-edward-dowd/)

After the Interview:

Follow Edward Dowd on Twitter by clicking here

See you THURSDAY

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