JUNE 14/MARKETS CONTINUE TO SHATTER: GOLD DOWN $18.80 TO $1811.80//SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TO $20.98//PLATINUM DOWN $18.80 TO $921.15//PALLADIUM UP $6.85 TO $1814.00//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT//HUGE TRUCKER STRIKE IN SOUTH KOREA WHICH CAN LEAD TO SERIOUS GLOBAL SHORTAGES//TOM LUONGO: A MUST READ ON EUROPE//MORE INFLATION REPORTS//ENERGY UPDATES USA//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

JUNE 14 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1811.80 DOWN $18.80 

SILVER: $20.98 DOWN $0.32

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1809.30

SILVER: $21.04

Bitcoin morning price:  $22,318 DOWN 958

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $22,213  DOWN 1063  

Platinum price: closing DOWN $18.80 to $921.15

Palladium price; closing UP$6.85  at $1814.00

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX EXCHANGE:EXCHANGE: 

COMEX

no. of contracts issued by JPMorgan: 480/554

  EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JUNE 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,828.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/13/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 06/15/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


104 C MIZUHO 500
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 6
323 C HSBC 12
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 8
407 C STRAITS FIN LLC 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 53
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 15
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 6
661 C JP MORGAN 480
700 C UBS 8
709 H BARCLAYS 5
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 8
800 C MAREX SPEC 3
905 C ADM 3


TOTAL: 554 554
MONTH TO DATE: 22,607

_____________________________________________________________________________________ TOTAL: 200 200 MONTH TO DATE: 22,053  

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JUNE CONTRACT 554  NOTICE(S) FOR 55,400 Oz//1.723  TONNES)

total notices so far: 22,607 contracts for 2,260,700 oz (70.317 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

57 NOTICE(S) FILED 285,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  1672 :  for 8,360,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $18.80

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.87 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN  32 CENTS

AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 544.399 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED  5289 CONTRACTS TO 155,283   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND  THE HUGE LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR HUGE $0.62 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.62) AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SILVER LONGS AS THEY REMAIN FIRM IN THEIR BELIEF OF A SILVER FAILURE AS EVEN THOUGH WE HAD A  STRONG LOSS OF 649 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ALL OF THAT LOSS WAS FROM SPECULATOR SHORTS COVERING.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 7.635 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 53 CONTRACTS OR 265,000 OZ//NEW STANDING:  8,670,000 / //  V)    GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/(SPECULATOR COVERING)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : +172

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JUNE. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 10 days, total 8012,  contracts:  40.060 million oz  OR 4.00 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (801 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 40.06 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 40.06 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF  5239 DESPITE OUR HUGE  $0.62 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1200 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE. OF 7.635 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 265,000 QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING: 8,670,000 OZ //  .. WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 6439 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 32.195 MILLION  OZ WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. 

 WE HAD 57  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  285,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A STRONG 9708 CONTRACTS  TO 499,867 AND CLOSER TO NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -185 CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

.

THE  STRONG LOSS IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR HUGE FALL IN PRICE OF $41.55//COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION   //AND SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING 

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 69.26 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE /FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  200 OZ E.F.P JUMP TO LONDON//NEW STANDING:  74.062 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF   $41.55 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 3718  OI CONTRACTS 11.564 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED  5990 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 500,052

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3533, WITH 9523 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5990 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3718 CONTRACTS OR 11.564 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5990) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (9708,): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 3718 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AND SOME ADDITION TO SPECULATOR SHORTS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE. AT 69.26 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P.  JUMP TO LONDON OF 200 OZ//NEW STANDING: 74.062 TONNES /  3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS //.,4) FAIR SIZED COMEX  OI. LOSS 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JUNE

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE :

42,039 CONTRACTS OR 4,203,900 OZ OR 130.75  TONNES 10 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4204 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 130.75 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  130.75/3550 x 100% TONNES  3.69% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 130.75 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 5239 CONTRACT OI TO 155,283 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 1200 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY 1200  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 5067 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1200 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 6439   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 32.195 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF  $0.62 .

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

end

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 33.35PTS OR 1.02%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 0.41 PTS OR 0.00%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 357.58 OR 1.33%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 3.39%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.7359    /Oil UP TO 121.65 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 123.21 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7359 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7572: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER/

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 9708 CONTRACTS TO 499,867 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE LOSS OF $41.55 IN GOLD PRICING MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP (5990 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ADDED TO THEIR SHORT POSITIONS

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 5990 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 AUG :5990 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5990 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED  TOTAL OF 3718  CONTRACTS IN THAT 5990 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 9708  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS  GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE  OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF GOLD $41.55.   

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY   (74.062),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.062 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $41.55) AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF  SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A FAIR SIZED LOSS  OF 10.989 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE (74.062 TONNES)

WE HAD XXX CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3533 CONTRACTS OR 353,300  OZ OR 10.989 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 159,010/// poor/raid

final gold volumes/yesterday  270,314  /poor/raid

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JUNE ’22 COMEX GOLD //JUNE 14

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz87,749.660 oz Delaware, Int. Delaware, JPMorgan., Manfra
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz32,118.849 OZ
Brinks
999 kilobars 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil
No of oz served (contracts) today554  notice(s)
55,400 OZ
1.723 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)1204 contracts 120400 oz
3.745 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month22,607 notices
2,260,700 OZ
70.317 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  1

i) Into Brinks dealer:  32,118.849 o  (999 kilobars)

No dealer withdrawals

0 customer deposits

total deposits: nil oz

5 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Delaware: 482.265 oz   (15 kilobars)

ii) Out of JPMorgan:  5894.389 oz

and JPMorgan enhanced:  802.600 oz  

iii)Int. Delaware  225.057 oz (7 kilobars)

iv) Manfra:  80,345.349 oz  (2499 kilobars)

total withdrawal: 87,749.660  oz

ADJUSTMENTS: 3 dealer to customer

Malca  119,215.908 oz

Manfra:  11,121.644 oz

JPMorgan  72,730.176 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE.

For the front month of JUNE we have an  oi of 1758 contracts having LOST 202 contracts

We had 200 notices filed on MONDAY so we LOST  2  contracts or an additional 200 oz will NOT stand for gold in this very active month of June as they were EFP’d to London

July has a LOSS OF 16 OI to stand at 2040

August has a loss of 10,293 contracts DOWN to 419,256 contracts

We had 554 notice(s) filed today for  55,400 oz FOR THE JUNE 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 554 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and  480 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (22,607) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JUNE 1758  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 554 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,381,100 OZ  OR 74.062 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of JUNE. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE contract month:

No of notices filed so far (22,607) x 100 oz+   (1758)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (554} x 100 oz} which equals 2,381,100 oz standing OR 74.062 TONNES in this   active delivery month of JUNE.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  74,082 TONNES  (A STRONG STANDING FOR A JUNE (  ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,419,784.828 oz   75.26 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  34,334,079.570 OZ 

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 16,809,169.675  OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,524,909.895 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,105,125.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  

END

JUNE 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//JUNE 14

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,769,434.060  oz
Brinks
CNT
Delaware
JPMorgan
Deposits to the Dealer InventorynilOZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory597,263.200 oz
JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)57CONTRACT(S)285,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)62 contracts (310,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)1672 contracts 8,360,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposits  

total dealer deposits:  0     oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 597,263.200 oz

total deposit:  597,263.200    oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 170.824 million oz/336.915 million =50.69% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 4

i) Out of Brinks  10,105.210 oz

ii) Out of Delaware 927.800 oz
iii) Out of JPMorgan: 1,226,954.760 oz

iv) Out of CNT 531,446.790 oz

total withdrawal  1,769,434.060        oz

1 adjustments:  dealer to customer

JPMorgan:  559,007.640 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 71.395 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 336.915 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JUNE OI: 119 HAVING GAINED 41 CONTRACTS. 

WE HAD 12 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 53 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 265,000 OZ WILL  STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE

DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE

JULY HAD A LOSS OF 1870 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 70,851 CONTRACTS.

AUGUST GAINED 9 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 992

SEPTEMBER HAD A GAIN OF 6852 CONTRACTS UP TO 66,562 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 57 for  285,000 oz

Comex volumes:70,647// est. volume today//   good//raid

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 113,136 contracts ( strong/big raid )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1672 x 5,000 oz = 8,360,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE(119) and the number of notices served upon today 57  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JUNE./2022 contract month: 1672 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE (119)  – number of notices served upon today (57) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month equates 8,670,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JUNE 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.55: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD UP $21.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.75//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 2/WITH GOLD UP $22.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.20 TONNES

JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $1$ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AWITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.36 TONNES

MAY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.10: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.95//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

May 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.10/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

MAY 25/WITH GOLD UP @$2.70: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.89./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.07 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.97 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS  AT 1056.18 TONNES

MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $24.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.21 TONNES//

MAY 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.07 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.21 TONNES

MAY 17/WITH GOLD UP $5.40:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.28 TONNES

MAY 16/WITH GOLD UP $5.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.89 TONNES

MAY 13/ WITH GOLD DOWN $16.25//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.8 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.82 TONNES

MAY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.99 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.62 TONNES

MAY 11/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.25 TONNES FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.65 TONNES

MAY 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.10 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.90 TONNES

MAY 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.05: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.98 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.00 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $7.95: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1084.98 TONNES

MAY 5/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.04 TONNES

MAY 4//WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 \TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.04 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $6.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A WITHDRAWL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1092.23

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.20: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1094.55 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1065.39 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10.WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 Z FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 923,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.229 MILLION OZ

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.459 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.167 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER DOWN $.34: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITTHDRAWAL OF 246,000 OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.626 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 2/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.261 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS T 553.872 MILLION OZ

JUNE 1/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.538 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.133 MILLION OZ//

MAY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN $.41 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST S AT 558.071 MILLION OZ//

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.071 MILLION OZ///

MAY 26/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.515 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.071 MILLION OZ

MAY 25/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .922 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.486 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20.WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WIHDRAWAL OF .785 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 18/WITH SILVER UP $0.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL  1.892 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 17/WITH SILVER UP $.22 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.508 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 16/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.546 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.593 MILLION OZ//

MAY 13/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ/

MAY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ//

May 11/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.487 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ//

MAY 10.//WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .93 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .851 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.900 MILLION OZ

MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF.877 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 47 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 554,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.171 MILLION OZ//

INVENTORY TONIGHT RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ/

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peak Inflation Was A Fairytale Just Like Transitory Inflation

TUESDAY, JUN 14, 2022 – 07:20 AM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

Inflation wasn’t transitory.

And inflation hasn’t peaked.

It’s more like peak inflation was transitory.

The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in higher than expected. The headline year-on-year price increase was 8.6%. The projection was for the CPI to hold steady at the same level as last month — 8.3%. Instead, we got the biggest jump in prices during this inflationary cycle and the highest CPI print since 1981.

On a month-to-month basis, the CPI rose by 1%. This was above the 0.7% projection. Another spike in fuel and energy costs primarily drove the monthly increase. Energy costs rose 3.9% during the month. Annualized, energy prices are up 34.6%. Fuel oil posted a 16.9% monthly gain, pushing the 12-month surge to 106.7%.

Stripping out more volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose 0.6%. This equaled last month’s core CPI gain and was double the March core read of 0.3%, which was supposedly signaling peak inflation. If you annualize the last two months, the core CPI would come in at 7.2%.

Year-over-year, core CPI rose  6%. This was slightly above the 5.9% estimate.

Most analysts focus on rising energy prices as the primary driver behind persistent inflation, but prices rose in all 11 CPI categories. Nine of those 11 categories charted price increases above the 12-month average.

Housing costs continue to inch higher, even using the government’s make-believe “owner’s equivalent rent” calculation. The housing index was up another 0.6% on the month and this significantly understates the actual rise in housing costs. It was the fasted one-month gain in shelter costs since 2004. The 5.5% 12-month gain ranks as the biggest rise in housing prices since February 1991,

Americans are feeling the sting of inflation.

According to calculations by Bloomberg Economics, the inflation tax currently costs American households $433 per month. That comes to a $5,200 annual increase in household costs.

Taking into account rising prices, the average consumer took a pay cut from April to May, according to a separate BLS report.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, but real wages fell 0.6%. On a year-on-year basis, real average hourly earnings decreased 3%, seasonally adjusted.

This undercuts the popular narrative that “inflation isn’t really that bad” because wages increase as well. Rising wages don’t keep up with rising prices. As a result, American consumers are running up record levels of debt and burning through savings to make ends meet.

And as bad as these numbers are, it’s actually worse than that. This CPI uses a government formula that understates the actual rise in prices. Based on the CPI formula used in the 1970s, CPI is above 17% — a historically high number.

In March, everybody was talking about peak inflation. Clearly, the CPI didn’t peak in March if it’s higher in May. And there is no reason to think these May numbers will be the peak either.

While the mainstream blames, Russia, COVID, supply chains, excessive demand, and perhaps voodoo for rising inflation, it completely ignores the most significant factor – actual inflation created by the Federal Reserve.

Remember, rising prices are not in and of themselves “inflation.” Inflation is an increase in the money supply. Rising prices are a symptom of inflation. Loose central bank monetary policy drives the money supply up.

The Federal Reserve has been flooding the economy with money — inflation — since 2009. We are drowning in inflation.

The Fed took a weak swing at inflation during its May meeting, raising interest rates by 1/2%. But at .75%, interest rates remain historically low. Meanwhile, the central bank pushed back balance sheet reduction until June. And at the proposed pace, it would take over 7 years to decrease the balance sheet back to pre-pandemic levels. The Federal Reserve hasn’t done nearly enough to mop up all of the excess liquidity in the economy.

As a SchiffGold analyst put it, “This is still highly stimulative, inflationary policy. Interest rates are being held artificially low. And we’re still dealing with all of this inflation that is in the pipeline.”

Meanwhile, President Biden’s inflation-fighting plan basically involves spending more money. That means more borrowing and more debt the Fed will ultimately need to monetize.

It should be clear to you that this won’t fix inflation. In fact, it will only make it worse by raising the inflation tax. Every dollar the government spends comes out of Americans’ pockets — out of your pocket.

If the federal government is going to spend more to fight inflation, it will either have to raise taxes (and not just on the “rich” — that won’t generate enough government revenue) or it will have to borrow more. That means the Federal Reserve will have to print more to monetize the debt. That means more inflation.

All of this tells me that peak inflation was every bit a fairytale as transitory inflation.

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

As discussed yesterday, huge selloff hits treasury markets causing yield curve to invert

(Reuters/GATA)

Huge selloff rocks Treasury markets, inverting yield curve

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-06-13 10:28Section: Daily Dispatches

By Yoruk Bahceli and Sujata Rao
Reuters
Monday, June 13, 2022

U.S. two-year Treasury yields rose above 10-year borrowing costs today — the so-called curve inversion that often heralds economic recession — on expectations interest rates may rise faster and further than anticipated.

Fears the U.S. Federal Reserve could opt for an even larger rate hike than anticipated this week to contain inflation sent two-year yields to their highest levels since 2007.

But a view is also playing out that aggressive rate hikes may tip the economy into recession. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/business/huge-selloff-rocks-treasury-markets-yield-curve-inverts-2022-06-13/

END

This is what caused cryptos to collapse:  Celsius and Binance halts withdrawals

(The Hill/GATA)

Crypto firms Celsius, Binance halt withdrawals as bitcoin plummets

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-06-13 10:42Section: Daily Dispatches

By Karl Evers-Hillstrom
The Hill, Washington
Monday, June 13, 2022

Cryptocurrency companies today blocked users from withdrawing funds as the value of bitcoin and other prominent digital assets plunged. 

Crypto lending company Celsius Network announced late Sunday night that it would freeze all withdrawals and transfers due to “extreme market conditions.” The move sparked an enormous selloff, with the price of bitcoin falling 12% to its lowest level since December 2020.

Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume, said today it was freezing bitcoin withdrawals due to “due to a stuck transaction causing a backlog.”

Changpeng Zhao, the firm’s CEO, tweeted that the fix would take only 30 minutes but later said that the problem was “going to take a bit longer to fix” than his initial estimate. 

Celsius, which says it has 1.7 million customers, made its announcement after numerous cryptocurrencies tanked over the weekend. Ethereum, another popular digital coin, plunged nearly 32 percent from Friday to this morning. …

… For the remainder of the report:

end

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES //LITHIUM

END 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.7359

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7572

HANG SANG CLOSED  UP 0.41 PTS OR 0.00% 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 357.58% OR 1.33%

3. Europe stocks  ALL CLOSED  ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  104.99/Euro RISES TO 1.0435

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.252/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 134.51/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -SHORE CLOSED  UP//  OFF- SHORE UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +1.66%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.16% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.03%…ALL BLOWING UP!!

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.69//BLOWING UP

3j Gold at $1822.05 silver at: 21.17  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP  1/2      roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 56.24

3m oil into the 121 dollar handle for WTI and  123 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 134.51DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9940– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0373well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.322 DOWN 5  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.326 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.27

Stocks Stage Feeble Attempt At Dead Cat Bounce After Losing $1.3 Trillion In One Day

TUESDAY, JUN 14, 2022 – 07:49 AM

US index futures staged a feeble, fading attempt to bounce on Tuesday, following Monday’s crash that wiped out $1.3 trillion in market cap and topped a furious 4-day selloff that was the worst since March 2020 and culminated in a bear market amid expectations – even from permabull Goldman – that the Fed’s now accepted 75bps rate hike on Wednesday will hurl the economy into a recession. Futures on the S&P 500 rebounded more than 1% in early trading before fading the gain to just 0.24%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.5%.

US stocks plunged on Monday to the lowest level since January 2021 and closed more than 20% below its January record high, triggering Joe Biden first official bear market. Global equities sold off after an unexpectedly strong reading Friday on US inflation sparked concern that the Fed will go too far in raising interest rates to tame soaring prices. Bond yields dipped after soaring to a peak last seen in 2011. The yield curve remained flat, however, underscoring worries about an economic downturn sparked by tighter monetary policy, with the 2s10s curve just 1bps away from inverting again.  Cryptocurrencies, meanwhile, plunged with bitcoin puking more than 10% to below $21,000 before paring much of the slide as dip buyers emerged. UBS said most long-term owners are now in the red and warned of more losses if coin miners buckle under the pressure and start selling. The dollar was steady near a two-year high. In Japan, the central bank boosted bond-purchase operations to keep yields in check. The yen hovered near a 24-year low against the greenback.

“We remain bearish on equity outlook,” said Marija Veitmane, a senior strategist at State Street Global Markets. “Inflation is still a huge problem and central banks need to be very aggressive to fight it. This is a very negative outlook for stocks, so we would be sellers of any rally.”

Among notable premarket movers, shares of megacap tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Tesla and Meta Platforms were slightly higher and poised to recoup some of the losses from Monday: Apple (AAPL US) +1.4%, Amazon (AMZN US) +1.7%, Alphabet (GOOGL US) +1.5%, Meta Platforms (META US) +1.9% and Nvidia (NVDA US) +1.8% in premarket trading. Oracle shares rose 13% in premarket trading after the software company reported higher-than-expected fourth-quarter results. Here are the most notable premarket movers:

  • AMC Entertainment (AMC US) shares rise as much as 3.7% in US premarket trading, in line with a broader rebound in risk assets, and after the movie theater operator said that last weekend’s admission revenues beat that of the same weekend of 2019.
  • Adobe (ADBE US) slides 4.2% in premarket trading as Citi cut its price target on the company to $425, the lowest on Wall Street, citing weaker consumer spending and potentially rising competition.
  • US-listed Chinese stocks post broad-based gains in premarket trading, on track to rebound from a three-day drop, as sentiment toward tech stabilizes: Alibaba (BABA US) shares rise 3.8%, Baidu (BIDU US) +4%, Pinduoduo (PDD US) +4.2%, JD.com (JD US) +3.2% and Li Auto (LI US) +6.1%
  • Braze (BRZE US) shares jump 8% in premarket trading after the company’s first-quarter revenue beat estimates, and full-year guidance also topped expectations.
  • Arista (ANET US) shares decline 4.1% in US premarket trading as Morgan Stanley says in a note that the company, as well as Wiwynn and memory stocks such as SK Hynix and Micron (MU US) are among those most at risk in the semiconductor and networking equipment space when tech firms cut spending on data centers.
  • Kaival Brands (KAVL US) shares surge as much as 57% in US premarket trading, after the vaping products distributor reached deal with Philip Morris to distribute electronic nicotine delivery systems products outside of the US.
  • Outset Medical (OM US) shares fall 4.6% in premarket trading as their price target was cut to a Street-low at Cowen, after the medical technology firm halted shipments on its Tablo Hemodialysis System for home use. The company also suspended guidance for the year.
  • US Silica (SLCA US) shares may be in focus after they were upgraded to outperform from inline at Evercore ISI following the conclusion of the industrial minerals firm’s review of its Industrial & Specialty Products (ISP) segment.

With just two weeks left until the end of Q2, a dismal picture emerges: this quarter is set to deliver the biggest combined loss for global bonds and stocks on record, according to Bloomberg. The highest inflation in a generation, stoked by supply-chain and commodity-market disruptions amid China’s Covid struggles and the war in Ukraine, is roiling the outlook. According to Bloomberg,  the big question is whether the Fed and other major central banks will tip their economies into recession as they tighten financial conditions. We disagree: a recession is now assured; the real big question is how sparking a recession in the US will force Putin to pump more gas.

European gains were shorter-lived: Euro Stoxx 50 reverses a 1.1% bounce to trade down 0.2%, extending its decline to a sixth day, on track for the longest losing streak since the start of the pandemic and the lowest closing level in 15 months. Retail, media and travel are the weakest Stoxx 600 sectors with broad-based sectoral gains fading as the session progresses. Bonds in most of Europe edged lower, but gilts bucked the trend after data showed spending power of UK households plunged as inflation eroded wage increases. Here are the biggest European movers:

  • Fortum shares rose as much as 9.5%, while Uniper gained 6.1% as Finland is prepared to give Fortum time to sell its Russian power plants and follow other western energy companies out of Russia.
  • Rates-sensitive banking stocks in Europe outperform Tuesday as Treasury yields drop following four consecutive days of increases that lifted the 10-year to the highest level since 2011.
  • HSBC shares gain as much as 3.2%, Standard Chartered +3.2%, Nordea Bank +2.7%, ING +2.8%
  • Wizz Air shares rise as much as 6.2% after Berenberg upgraded the airline to buy from hold, citing the long-term potential of its business, despite numerous recent challenges.
  • Go-Ahead rises as much as 15% amid a potential bidding war. The company accepted a £648m takeover bid from an investor group backed by Australian rival Kinetic, while Kelsian is assessing whether to make offer.
  • Saipem gains as much as 8.5% after five sessions of declines; the company and Trevi signed memorandum of understanding for foundation drilling solutions and services for offshore wind farm projects.
  • Atos shares plunge as much as 27% after the company announced the departure of newly arrived CEO Rodolphe Belmer and a separation into two publicly listed companies.
  • Akzo Nobel shares decline as much as 6.1% after the company reduced 2Q forecasts due to China lockdowns and slower start to EMEA DIY season.
  • Air France-KLM shares fall as much as 13% after the company raised EU2.3b in a deeply discounted rights offering to help repay state aid received during the pandemic.

Earlier in the session, Asian stock market indexes hit bleak milestones in quick succession on Tuesday as investor concerns worsened that aggressive interest rate increases in the US could erode corporate earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 2% to its lowest level in a month after the world equities gauge entered a bear market overnight before paring losses. New Zealand’s stock index extended its decline to 20% from a peak reached last year, entering a bear market, while Singapore’s measure wiped out its gains for 2022. Traders are betting that the Fed will deliver a 75-basis-point rate increase in this week’s meeting — the biggest since 1994 — after US inflation hit a four-decade high in May. This is further muddying the economic outlook at a time supply chains are snarled, weighing on the valuation and profit estimates for the MSCI Asia index, which has lost 17% this year.

“Bets are off for all asset classes as investors brace themselves for tough action from the Fed to counter higher-than-expected inflation,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners in Singapore. “The renewed lockdowns in China are also not going to be helpful.” Central banks from South Korea and Australia to India have been raising rates in response to accelerating inflation, with the latter two announcing 50-basis-point increases in their latest decisions.

China’s persistent zero-Covid strategy is another factor disproportionately affecting companies in Asia. Singapore’s Straits Times Index is near a correction, down 9.7% from an April high, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index has dropped 12% over a similar period. Elsewhere, the MSCI Asean Index is inching closer to a 20% drop from a peak reached in January 2021, while South Korea’s Kospi remains mired in a bear market.  Still, investors have identified some potential areas of outperformance, as Asia’s stock measure has held up better than global peers as it continues to trade at a lower forward price-to-earnings ratio. And while China has walked back on loosening some Covid-19 restrictions in Beijing and Shanghai, traders see the country’s fiscal and monetary easing stance giving its beleaguered stocks a further boost.  “China might outperform global equities, as it did in May and early June,” if consumption resumes in the coming months after a relaxation in lockdowns, said Herald van der Linde, head of APAC equity strategy at HSBC Holdings Plc. Meanwhile, commodity-exporting Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, which are also benefiting from border reopenings, are expected to continue to shine. The Jakarta Composite Index rose on Tuesday, taking its advance to 7.1% this year.

India was no exception to the global rout, and stock gauges fell to their lowest levels in 11-months as inflation and interest-rate concerns continued to fuel selloffs across global equity markets.  The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.3% to 52,693.57 in Mumbai after rising as much as 0.5% during the session. The NSE Nifty 50 Index dropped by an similar measure to its lowest since July 28. Both benchmarks have dropped more than 14% from October peaks. Foreign institutional investors have taken out $24.2 billion from local stocks this year through June 10, and the selloff is headed for its ninth consecutive month. However, the key indexes have still outperformed Asia Pacific and emerging-market peers this year, helped by net $26.4 billion of stock purchases by domestic investors, which include mutual funds and insurance companies. Consumer-price inflation in India has stayed above the central bank’s target in May while wholesale prices accelerated for a third-straight month as input costs continue to rise for manufacturers. “High inflationary environment, fresh curbs in China and rising crude oil prices are likely to keep the markets under pressure for a while,” Motilal Oswal analyst Siddhartha Khemka wrote in a note.  Reliance Industries contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 1.3%. Among the 30 shares in the Sensex Index, 15 rose, 14 fell and one was unchanged.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as the greenback weakened against most of its Group-of-10 peers.  The euro rose from a one-month low against the dollar but still failed to retrace the recent plunge in a meaningful way. German June ZEW expectations came in at -28.0 versus estimate -26.8. Norway’s krone slumped to a fresh 4-week low against the euro after Norges Bank’s regional network report showed businesses were expecting growth to slow. Sweden’s krona got a temporary boost after inflation figures for May came in higher than the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. A Riksbank survey showed businesses, which are seeing sharp cost increases, are concerned that the coming wage bargaining rounds will lead to higher salary costs than in previous collective agreements. The Swiss franc led G-10 gains as it pared most of yesterday’s drop against the dollar. The pound edged up from a two-year low against the dollar. Sterling remained on the back foot after UK labour market data showed limited further tightening in the jobs market, suggesting that the BOE may raise interest rates by 25bps this week, rather than 50bps. Australian sovereign bonds plunged in catch-up to a two-day rout in Treasuries as the specter of a 75bps Fed hike on Wednesday loomed large. Aussie steadied following a bounce in US stock futures. USD/JPY consolidated. The Bank of Japan ramped up the defense of its policy framework after yields came under renewed upward pressure, unveiling a further set of unscheduled buying operations, including purchases of much longer maturities

In rates, treasuries bull steepened with front-end yields richer by 8.5bp on the day into US morning session. S&P futures slightly higher, although remain near Monday session lows as investors continue to position ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision. Swaps market prices in just under 200bp of rate hikes over the next three meetings with 70bp priced into Wednesday’s decision. Three-month Libor fix jumps over 17bp. US yields richer by 8.5bp to 5bp across the curve with front-end led gains steepening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 2.1bp and 1.5bp; 10-year yields around 3.30% and outperforming bunds by 7bp on the day. IG dollar issuance slate; projections for the session remain murky amid markets turmoil and after a number of deals were put on ice Monday. Gilts put in a ~6bps parallel richening move across the curve. Bunds buck the trend, bear-steepening ahead of scheduled comments from ECB’s Schnabel on euro-area bond market fragmentation due later.

In commodities, oil held above $120 a barrel as investors evaluated a tight supply outlook and the impact of China’s eventual return from virus curbs. WTI adds 0.7% to trade near $121.71, Brent holds above $123. Spot gold trades a narrow range, fading after hitting $1,830/oz. Base metals are mixed; LME tin falls 5.1% while LME zinc gains 0.3%.

To the day ahead now. The ECB’s Schnabel speaks, while in data we get UK jobless claims, ILO unemployment rate, ZEW surveys for the Eurozone and Germany, US NFIB small business optimism and PPI, and Canadian manufacturing sales. Hold on to your hats.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 1.1% to 3,790.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 413.07
  • MXAP down 0.9% to 159.98
  • MXAPJ down 0.6% to 529.25
  • Nikkei down 1.3% to 26,629.86
  • Topix down 1.2% to 1,878.45
  • Hang Seng Index little changed at 21,067.99
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.0% to 3,288.91
  • Sensex down 0.2% to 52,743.72
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 3.5% to 6,686.03
  • Kospi down 0.5% to 2,492.97
  • Brent Futures up 0.7% to $123.15/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,829.72
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.34% to 104.72
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.62%
  • Euro up 0.6% to $1.0473
  • Brent Futures up 0.7% to $123.17/bbl

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The latest jumps in consumer prices and inflation expectations will probably spur Federal Reserve officials to consider the biggest interest-rate increase since 1994 when they meet this week, after Chair Jerome Powell previously signaled a smaller move was the likely outcome
  • JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are withdrawing from handling trades of Russian debt after the Biden administration’s surprise announcement last week it’s banning US investors from scooping up such assets
  • As the BOJ escalates attempts to keep a lid on bond yields, BlueBay is betting the central bank will be forced to abandon a policy that’s increasingly out of sync with global peers. The BOJ’s so- called yield curve control is “untenable,” according to Mark Dowding, BlueBay’s London-based chief investment officer
  • Investor fears of stagflation are at the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, while global growth optimism has sunk to a record low, according to Bank of America Corp.’s monthly fund manager survey

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pacific stocks were pressured following the global stock and bond slump as the aftershock from recent hot US inflation reverberated across risk assets and spurred further expectations for a 75bps Fed rate hike this week. ASX 200 was the worst performer as the losses caught up to the index on return from the extended weekend and with the declines led by underperformance in tech and metals. Nikkei 225 extended its declines despite the BoJ’s efforts to cap yields and with the recent rapid currency moves adding to the uncertainty. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were negative as lockdown concerns lingered with China’s Vice Premier Sun suggesting it is necessary to strengthen COVID-19 prevention and control of key places, while Shanghai’s Minhang district plans to conduct mass testing on Saturday.

Top Asian News

  • Shanghai’s Minhang district is planning mass COVID-19 testing on Saturday, according to Bloomberg.
  • BoJ announced additional bond purchases for Wednesday in which it will increase purchases of JGBs across several maturities, while it will continue to conduct additional buying as needed, according to Reuters.

European bourses began on the front-foot but quickly slipped into negative territory, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%; since the post-open dip, price action has steadily deteriorated further. However, while US futures are directionally in-fitting they remain in positive territory, ES +0.3%; albeit, well of highs and the ES resides around 3760 currently awaiting Fed clarity amid increasing speculation for 75bp. Oracle Corp (ORCL) Q4 2022 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.54 (exp. 1.37), Revenue 11.8bln (exp. 11.66bln). Cloud License And On-Premise License: 2.54bln (exp. 2.19bln). Cloud Services And Licenses Support: 7.6bln (exp. 7.77bln). Total Hardware Revenues: 856mln (exp. 857.71mln). Total Services Revenues: 833mln (exp. 847.89mln). Added USD 15.8bln after Cerner acquisition and it expects cloud business to grow by over 30% in FY23; Co. expects Q1 rev. including Cerner to grow 17%-19%. (PR Newswire) +12% in the pre-market. German cartel office has commenced proceedings against Apple (AAPL) re. tracking regulations for 3rd party apps, via Reuters.

Top European News

  • The EU is set to launch three separate lawsuits against the British government after it published its plans to override the protocol, according to the Telegraph. One option would reportedly see the EU end financial equivalence for the City of London.
  • US urged the UK and EU to return to talks to resolve differences over the Northern Ireland Protocol and said it remains a priority to protect gains of the Good Friday Agreement.
  • White House said proposed changes to N. Ireland Protocol won’t be an impediment to potential US-UK trade deal or trade dialogue talks in Boston, according to Reuters.
  • UK PM Johnson is not looking to lower household taxes until inflation is brought under control, as such action is unlikely before next year, according to the Telegraph.

FX

  • Dollar consolidates after Monday’s melt up to new multi year peaks as clock ticks down to FOMC and US PPI data; DXY hovers around 105.00 and just shy of new 105.290 YTD high.
  • Franc outperforms following suspension of trade in Russia against Rouble and Greenback; Usd/Chf probes 0.9000 to downside after pulling up only pips short of parity yesterday.
  • Euro rebounds amidst more hawkish commentary from ECB’s Knot and irrespective of German ZEW survey misses; EUR/USD back above 1.0400 and decent option expiries between 1.0420-15.
  • Aussie undermined by waning risk appetite and ongoing covid outbreaks in China, but underpinned by RBA Governor Lowe underlining determination to get inflation back to target, AUD/USD towards lower end of 0.6970-18 range.
  • Pound fades after brief upturn in bigger than expected rise in UK employment as other labour market metrics fall short of expectations and EU rift over NI protocol persists; Cable on the cusp of 1.2100 after fleeting breach of round above, EUR/GBP crosses 0.8600 to set fresh 2 month apex.

Fixed Income

  • Recovery in EZ debt derailed by supply and hawkish remarks from ECB’s Knot as Bunds retreat to 145.00 within a 145.58-144.51 range
  • Gilts and 10 year T-note hold up better between 112.97-29 and 116-03/115-01+ parameters in consolidation after Monday’s rout and ahead of US PPI data
  • ** BTP/Bund** spread blows out beyond 250 bp in advance of ECB’s Schnabel on fragmentation in bond markets

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent are firmer by circa. USD 1.0/bbl at present and reside towards the mid-point of a USD ~2.00/bbl range with specific newsflow thin and broader developments on familiar themes.
  • Themes which include China COVID and travel demand, for instance; but, factors which are overshadowed by broader anticipation going into Wednesday’s FOMC.
  • US and Saudi Arabia will announce on Tuesday that US President Biden will visit Saudi Arabia on July 15th and 16th, according to NBC’s Pegram citing sources.
  • China’s state planner is to increase retail prices of gasoline and diesel by CNY 390/tonne and CNY 375/tonne respectively as of June 15th, via NDRC.
  • Spot gold is essentially unchanged on the session around USD 1820/oz after falling below the 10-, 21- & 200-DMAs yesterday; Copper softer amid broader risk.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: May PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.8%, prior 0.5%; YoY, est. 10.9%, prior 11.0%
  • 08:30: May PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.4%; YoY, est. 8.6%, prior 8.8%
  • 08:30: May PPI Final Demand

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Where do we start this morning after as action packed a 24 hours as I can remember. The global equity and bond sell-off would have been bad anyway but the late US session headlines from a WSJ article (written by a journalist close to the Fed) that suggested the FOMC may need to surprise with a +75bp hike tomorrow was the last straw. Before we delve into the article and more detail on markets let’s take a one para overview of all the main market highlights.

To start with, 2yr USTs capped their largest two-day move (+54.3bps, +29.1bps yesterday), since the week following Lehman’s collapse, while 10yr Treasuries have risen +31.8bps over the last two days (+20.4bps yesterday), the largest such move since December 2010, bringing the 10yr to 3.36%, the highest since 2011. Meanwhile, the 2s10s yield curve swung around violently before closing in inverted territory (-0.3bps) again for the first time since the first days of April and for only the 15th day out of the 3907 business days since May 2007. The historic moves didn’t end with the Treasury market, as Italian 10yr BTP yields (+26.2bps) crossed 4.0% for the first time since 2014, the crossover index widened +32.3bps to 534bps, its widest level since 2012 outside of peak initial Covid widening, Bitcoin fell -15.13% to its lowest since late 2020 and is down another -5.23% this morning, the S&P 500 (-3.88%) finally entered bear market territory (-21.8% from its YTD peaks), while the dollar index surged to its highest level since 2002. So quite a ride although as we’ll see below risk is doing a bit better this morning with yields relatively flat.

Going through things in more detail, the Treasury market has been at the epicentre of this sell-off after the shocking CPI from last Friday. Yields were drifting higher all day as some on the Street officially updated their call for +75bp on Wednesday and openly considered whether the Fed will need a +100bp hike. The WSJ report then later threw gasoline on the already raging fire, noting the Fed was indeed “considering surprising markets with a larger-than expected” +75bp hike as early as this week given Friday’s alarming CPI and inflation expectations data. All-in, Fed funds futures moved to price in a 94% chance of a +75bp hike on Wednesday. So a +75bp hike on Wednesday won’t come as a surprise anymore.

At the end of the day, 2yr yields gained +29.1bps yesterday and +25.2bps Friday, bringing the rate to 3.35%. The 2s10s yield curve inverted, closing the day at -0.3bps, as 10yr yields climbed +11.4bps Friday and +20.4bps yesterday, bringing rates to 3.36%, their highest level since April 2011. As we go to press this morning, 2yr yields are up another 2bps with 10yr yields fractionally higher, thus inverting the curve a little more. US PPI today will be closely watched for the next inflation impulse.

The policy rate at end 2022 implied by fed funds futures closed at 3.72%, its highest to date by some margin, and implies just shy of +300bps of tightening over 5 meetings. Markets also moved to price in a terminal rate above 4% in the middle of next year, closer to DB’s call which has been the most aggressive on the street. It’s perhaps an understatement to say the market will be hyper focused on how the Fed communicates the near-term path of policy at this week’s FOMC, especially including what size rate hikes they’re considering as adequate for the rest of the year.

The selloff was echoed in Europe, where 10yr bunds (+11.5bps), OATs (+15.4bps), and BTPs (+26.2bps) all soldoff, even before the blockbuster WSJ report. ECB speakers returned to the docket after last week’s meeting, where Governing Council member Kazmir noted there was a clear need for a +50bp hike in September, in line with our European economics team’s call. Kazmir went on to warn that the economy faces weak growth for several quarters, piling onto what the market had already deduced – the sharp global repricing in monetary policy would weigh on growth. One of the major fears following the ECB meeting was that absent a new tool designed to stem fragmentation, peripheral spreads would widen out, and yesterday brought a fresh round of peripheral widening, with 10yr Italian spreads widening +14.6bps to bunds, with Spanish bonds widening +9.9bps. Indeed, 10yr BTPs crossed 4.0% for the first time since 2014.

Equity markets got the message, selling off across the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 falling -3.87% into bear market territory, down -21.82% from the all-time highs reached in early January, with the STOXX 600 down -2.41%. At one point, every single share in the S&P 500 was lower, though the index staged a heroic rally leaving 5 shares higher on the day. That’s the lowest amount since June 11, 2020 when only one share advanced. Unsurprisingly, every S&P 500 sector was lower, with all but two sectors declining by more than 3%. The NASDAQ fell -4.68% on the hit from higher discount rates, now -32.68% from its November high. Mega-cap shares bore the brunt of higher discount rates, with the FANG+ falling -6.50%, its worst day since September 2020, and -40.98% lower from its own all-time highs reached in November. Markets are trying to bounce this morning with S&P 500 futures +1% and Nasdaq futures +1.15%

As we discussed yesterday, this sharp rates repricing is partly due to another attempt at forward guidance from the Fed. Having signalled 50bps at the next two meetings a few weeks ago they reduced volatility. However when it became clear that this guidance may be insufficient it has opened up a market attack. The last man standing continues to be the BoJ and to be honest the more the market attacks the Fed and the ECB the more likely it is that the BoJ own forward guidance (in the form of YCC) will end very messily with huge implications for global rates. If the BoJ throws in the towel in H2 then global bond markets lose a huge anchor. Certainly one to watch for every morning when you wake up! Indeed the BOJ ramped up its scheduled purchases of 5-to-10-year debt today from an expected ¥500 billion to ¥800 billion as the yield on the 10yr JGBs jumped to 0.255%, edging past the upper end of the central bank’s 0.25% target range.

Talking of Asia, equity markets are lower this morning but markets are trying to fight back. The Nikkei (-2.00%) is the largest underperformer with the Hang Seng (-1.15%) and Kospi (-1.11%) also lagging. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite (-1.60%) and CSI (-1.86%) are also lower. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 is -4.54% lower after returning to trade following a holiday yesterday.

In such a broad-based selloff, many would have been interested in how crypto assets would hold up, supposedly uncorrelated with traditional assets. However, digital assets did not escape the wrath of plummeting risk sentiment, with bitcoin falling -15.13% and down another -5.28% this morning as we type. At one point this morning, Bitcoin fell about -10% to trade at $20,823 before recovering a little. There were reports that some exchanges were having trouble liquidating holdings of various crypto assets. This is a classic deleveraging and unwinding of a bubble trade.

To the day ahead now. The ECB’s Schnabel speaks, while in data we get UK jobless claims, ILO unemployment rate, ZEW surveys for the Eurozone and Germany, US NFIB small business optimism and PPI, and Canadian manufacturing sales. Hold on to your hats.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY NIGHT 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 33.35PTS OR 1.02%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 0.41 PTS OR 0.00%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 357.58 OR 1.33%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 3.39%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.7359    /Oil UP TO 121.65 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 123.21 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7359 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7572: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER/

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

SOUTH KOREA

This could very well spark economic turmoil for the world as a nationwide trucker strike broadens.  

(zerohedge)

Trucker Strike In South Korea Sparks Economic Turmoil, Risks Global Spillover

MONDAY, JUN 13, 2022 – 06:00 PM

The epicenter of the next global supply chain snarl could be in South Korea as a nationwide trucker strike broadens and is hindering domestic economic activity, which may spill over to the rest of the world. 

Bloomberg reports that the Cargo Truckers Solidarity Union entered its seventh day of strikes on Monday, causing $1.6 billion in disruptions for auto, petrochemical, steel, and other top industries. 

South Korean steel-making company POSCO, the world’s fourth-largest steelmaker, has already limited production at some factories while the impacts are spreading across the economy. 

The strike has impacted companies in Seoul the hardest. Shares of Posco slumped nearly 4%, Hyundai Motor Co. fell 5%, Petrochemical company Hanwha Corp. 4%, and LG Chem Ltd. slipped 3.6%.

Reuters said about a third of the union members (7,000) were striking Monday, and there is no end in sight. 

Deliveries of automobiles, fuels, steel, and materials for semiconductor chips have been suspended or delayed. Continued disruption of domestic shipments and factories limiting production could have ripple effects across the globe, especially since South Korea is the top exporter of memory chips. 

The strike’s impact could be more severe this week as the fourth round of negotiations between the striking truckers and government officials failed on Sunday. The union demands minimum pay guarantees and is furious about soaring diesel prices.  

“We are thinking of a complete blockade,” union leader Kim Jae-gwang told Reuters, indicating they intend to block coal shipments to a power plant in Gunsan, North Jeolla Province. Reuters noted impacts to power would be limited but shows an intensification of truckers’ actions. 

Signs of global spillovers are materializing as container volume transported to and from the nation’s 12 ports plunged 68% on Monday compared with the average for May, according to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport. At Port of Busan, the largest port in the country and the world’s seventh busiest port, inbound and outbound volumes were halved versus their average amount.   

Besides semiconductors, the auto industry could be heavily impacted by the strike. 

Hyundai Motor Group said Friday that partial production disruptions were reported at its Ulsan factory, with Chosun Ilbo reporting that 50% of production was halted. 

An analyst at the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade, Cho Chuel, warned the strike could “worsen inflation with fewer supplies available,” adding it’s still too early to tell what economic damages will be.  

South Korea could throw another wrench in chaotic global supply chains, already reeling from COVID, fallout of the Ukrainian conflict, and the mess in Shanghai.

3B  JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/TAIWAN

Xi widens the legal basis for Chinese troop deployments as Taiwan tensions escalate.

(zerohedge)

Xi Widens Legal Basis For PLA Troop Deployments Amid Soaring Taiwan Tensions

MONDAY, JUN 13, 2022 – 08:00 PM

At a moment the Pentagon is warning Beijing about its heightened military maneuvers around Taiwan, China’s President Xi Jinping has just signed an order which fundamentally expands the conditions under which People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops can be deployed.

The freshly signed and promulgated order introduces a legal framework to deploy troops in “non-war military actions” which takes effect Wednesday, according to state media. It could have significant repercussions for tensions with the US and Washington allies like Australia or Japan in places like the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, given the order loosens the conditions under which it’s possible to initiate “military operations other than war” which involves operations that do not explicitly involve direct conflict or combat.

According to a list in state-run Global Times, the Xi-backed initiative will seek to standardize usage of PLA troops in non-military situations such as the following:

“disaster relief, humanitarian aid, escort, and peacekeeping, and safeguard China’s national sovereignty, security and development interests…”

And additionally, “The outlines aim to prevent and neutralize risks and challenges, handle emergencies, protect people and property, and safeguard national sovereignty, security and development interests, and world peace and regional stability, the Xinhua News Agency reported on Monday.”

Concerning this last justification on the list (and perhaps taking a page from America’s ‘Global War on Terror/GWOT’ playbook), it’s the “counter-terrorism” angle that could perhaps prove most elastic, and up for wide interpretation as Beijing readies potential new ways to wield the PLA as a blunt and powerful force enacting policy.

As GT writes, “The Chinese armed forces are also responsible for counter-terrorism, anti-pirate and peacekeeping missions, including regular escort missions in the Gulf of Aden and waters off Somalia as well as UN peacekeeping missions, providing public security goods to the international community, the expert said.”

“By carrying out these operations overseas, in some cases, the Chinese troops can prevent spillover effects of regional instabilities from affecting China, secure vital transport routes for strategic materials like oil, or safeguard China’s overseas investments, projects and personnel, analysts said, noting that this is likely why Xinhua described the outlines as being capable of safeguarding China’s national sovereignty, security and development interests,” the state media report adds.

The words “stability” and “instability” have precisely been applied to Taiwan of late, by both Beijing and Washington officials, while obviously supporting different sides of the ‘independence’ and sovereignty debate. In the latest example, on Sunday Bloomberg reported on a series of instances that Chinese officials have privately conveyed to their American counterparts that the Taiwan Strait does not constitute international waters, upping tensions given the Biden administration has been sailing navy warships through the contested waters on a monthly basis.

Meanwhile according to pro-Beijing pundits…

And prior to this, on Friday during the first ever face-to-face meeting between US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and China’s defense minister Wei Fenghe, the latter warned his American counterpart that Beijing will “not hesitate to start a war” if Taiwan declares independence. Wei had warned Austin that “if anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, the Chinese army will definitely not hesitate to start a war no matter the cost” – defense ministry spokesman Wu Qian quoted the minister as saying during the meeting

end

CHINA/WHO/COVID

China angry after WHO says lab leak theory needs further study.  Everybody on the planet knows that it was a lab leak

(zerohedge)

China Flips Out After WHO Says Lab-Leak Theory Needs Further Study

MONDAY, JUN 13, 2022 – 11:20 PM

China is fuming after a Thursday report by the World Health Organization concluded that while Covid-19 is likely from animals, further study is required to explain how it jumped to humans – including the possibility of a lab-leak.

An expert panel convened by the WHO’s scientific advisory group recommended “further investigations” into the lab-leak theory, and noted that there “has not been any new data made available” to come to any conclusions.

The recommendation is a sharp departure from the agency’s initial report, which ruled that a lab origin was “extremely unlikely.”

“All hypotheses must remain on the table until we have evidence that enables us to rule certain hypotheses in or out,” said WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at a June 9 press conference. “This make[s] it all the more urgent that this scientific work be kept separate from politics.”

As the Epoch Times notes, the report stated in a footnote that three panel members from Russia, Brazil, and China objected to the recommendations, saying there is “no scientific evidence” to question the commission’s previous conclusion from March 2021.

The report was written by a team, named the Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens (SAGO), which was tasked with advising the WHO on investigations into pathogens that might trigger the next pandemic, as well as studying the origins of the current pandemic.

The 27-member group was established last autumn following criticism from a dozen countries that raised concerns about WTO’s COVID-19 origins study, due to a lack of transparency and access to crucial data from China.

Key Data Missing

The 52-page preliminary report said “key pieces of data” are still missing to determine how the COVID-19 pandemic began.

The group said current data suggested a zoonotic origin of the novel coronavirus. The closest genetically-related virus was beta coronaviruses identified in bats in China and Laos, it added.

“However, so far neither the virus progenitors nor the natural/intermediate hosts or spill-over event to humans have been identified,” it stated.

The scientific advisory group believes the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan, where the first infections were recorded in China, “played an important role early in the amplification of the pandemic.” The team called for further studies into information such as environmental and animal samples taken from the market.

In the summer of 2021, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence assessed that one US intelligence agency determined with “moderate confidence” that the virus most likely emerged from a Chinese government lab in Wuhan.

China is pissed

As the Washington Examiner notes, Chinese officials slammed the report – with Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian saying on Friday that the theory was nothing more than a politically motivated lie driven by “anti-China” sentiments.

The lab leak theory is totally a lie concocted by anti-China forces for political purposes, which has nothing to do with science,” he said, adding “We always supported and participated in science-based global virus tracing, but we firmly opposed any forms of political manipulation.”

Zhao then suggested that the virus actually originated in a US military lab, citing “highly suspicious laboratories such as Fort Detrick.”

More via the Epoch Times:

Jamie Metzl, who sits on an unrelated WHO advisory group, has suggested that the Group of Seven industrialized nations set up their own COVID-19 origins probe, saying WHO lacks the political authority, expertise, and independence to conduct such a critical evaluation.

Metzl welcomed WHO’s call for a further investigation into the lab leak possibility but said it was insufficient.

“Tragically, the Chinese government is still refusing to share essential raw data and will not allow the necessary, full audit of the Wuhan labs,” he told The Associated Press. “Gaining access to this information is critical to both understanding how this pandemic began and preventing future pandemics.”

In Washington, a Republican-led subcommittee in the House of Representatives on the COVID-19 pandemic wrote in a tweet: “Americans were smeared as ‘conspiracy theorists’ for asking whether #COVID19 came from a lab leak. Now, the WHO is asking the same questions.”

“WE NEED ANSWERS,” added the committee, which is headed by Rep. Steve Scalise of Louisiana.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

ECB//EU/

A must read.  This is where Europe is heading as yields blow up

(Tom Luongo)

Lagarde Capitulates As The Euro-Zone Divides

TUESDAY, JUN 14, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

I know you probably get tired of me saying this but the Euro-zone is headed for a massive crisis.  On Thursday, June 9th, the ECB came out with its policy statement, less than one week before the next FOMC meeting statement (June 14th).

It was a doozy.  Christine Lagarde attempted early on to project that soothing calm central bankers are supposed to exude even when everything is collapsing around them.

But, truly this was Lagarde’s ‘Baghdad Bob’ moment.  She stood up there and read the ECB’s policy statement off the teleprompter like she had something caught in her throat, likely the remnants of what is left of her conscience, because even she couldn’t swallow the bullshit she was slinging.

We have inflation under control.  We will still grow in 2022 (BWAHAHAHA!) and growth will accelerate in 2023 and 2024.  These people haven’t gotten one quarterly forecast right in … forever, and yet they project this idea that they have any clue what GDP growth will be in 2024?

But, as Zerohedge pointed out, Lagarde then reversed herself during the press conference, trying to resurrect the ghost of Mario Draghi, saying that she stands ready to do ‘whatever it takes’ to stabilize the situation.

From ZH:

She notes there are existing instruments with the reinvestment capacity under the PEPP.

“And if it is necessary, as we have amply demonstrated in the past, we will deploy either existing or new instruments that will be made available.”

Lagarde states that “within our mandate we are committed to preventing fragmentation risks within the euro area.”

So some kind of asset purchase scheme for peripherals? The vagueness is intentional as it appears Lagarde is trying to pull off a Draghi ‘Whatever it takes’ moment while keeping her foot on the hawkish pedal.

As The IIF’s Robin Brooks pointed out:

If the ECB says to markets: “we will defend Italy’s spread,” markets will for sure test that statement. So – in effect – what the ECB did today is to raise the odds of markets trying to force its hand.All this is avoidable. Don’t hike. The Euro zone is going into recession…

The end result was obvious to anyone with ears to hear, we are reluctantly following the Fed’s lead in ending QE hoping that someone will still think that Italian BTP’s trading at 65 bps above US Treasuries of the same maturity is a ‘good deal,’ and invest in a country that now carries increasing redenomination risk.  

If it wasn’t so over-the-top moronic, it would be funny.   Now with the horrific US CPI print red-pilling a whole lot of investors that the Fed has the green light to be even more hawkish, the mad scramble is on to figure out where to park that money that’s been frozen by the clown show that is US domestic politics.

The Fed’s in control here, but not in the way a lot of people think. The next level of insight that should begin to take hold, especially if the next CPI print is equally awful, will be what I’ve been saying for a year now….

The Fed isn’t raising rates to combat inflation. The Fed is raising rates to break the ECB and Davos.

Spread Eagled ECB

Two months ago Italian debt, thanks to Lagarde’s lying and everyone’s front-running her trades, was trading at a premium to US debt.  Um, Chrissy, you’re going to need to see that spread vs. US debt be more like 650 bps (6.5%) rather than 65, if you want to attract even the average NFT investor at this point.

The bond markets are all now moving away from the monetary experiments Lagarde inherited from Mario Draghi and she has neither the experience nor the gravitas to carry this charade off any longer.

The big takeaway, and the reason why the euro had a mild bout of myocarditis Thursday Morning before collapsing on its way to the bathroom, is because Lagarde is open to creating a new, improved, QQEternity, alphabet soup program in the future if this ending QE ‘experiment’ doesn’t work.

With the Fed now secure in its role as European liquidation agent, there’s nothing Lagarde can do other than follow the yellow brick road make the best of a terrible situation getting worse by the day.

That said, I have to ask the serious question, are they really worried about Italy at this point?  It’s not like the folks at Davos Central didn’t manipulate the Italian political scene to achieve exactly this state of affairs. So, I honestly don’t think they care at all about Italy.

In fact, I’d argue that they would rather have Mario Draghi ride Italy into the ground and turn the country into a smoking ruin in the hopes of saving the northern European currency bloc.  

The whole point of putting Draghi in charge was to liquidate Italy.  Italy’s financial implosion would be just the cause celibre Davos has been trying to create to consolidate power within the ECB by taking complete control over its banking system when all the banks collapse.

Think back to the Banco Popular implosion where it was forcibly liquidated by Draghi when he was ECB president and sold to Santander for $1.  The power that Draghi exhibited there was astounding. And it was a warning shot to investors that no one’s money is safe from the commissars at the ECB.

While Draghi kept things together through strong-arming and, at the time, a sympathetic FOMC with Janet Yellen at the helm, the precedent was set then that the ECB has power over its member banks that the Fed doesn’t have. Today, looking at the situation, I’d say this is a very good thing.

You’re going to see a lot of this going forward in Europe and too many commentators are not prepared for the idea that this is all deliberate.

It’s not the plan they wanted, which was for this collapse of the Euro-zone to occur on their timetable not the markets, but it’s still the plan.  They hoped they’d have a compliant Fed putting the New York banks on notice that they have no friends left.

Davos may be improvising here, because the Fed is clearly working them over the coals as Eurodollar markets dry up, but they are still trying to make the best of a bad situation.

And that’s why Lagarde was trying to soften the market up by saying, “We have everything under control and still have tools.”  It’s all you ever hear from these central bankers, when, in reality, they have zero real clue anymore than we do.

If the European banking system collapses in the way I am forecasting this is what will destroy the Eurodollar markets, as those banks which previously levered up their dollar balances will have zero ability to do so after they are absorbed by the ECB.

Once this potential outcome is truly digested by the markets, and I think Friday’s complete shitshow was the beginning of that realization, then that’s when we are going to see rapid shifts in bond spreads, O/N money market rates and blow-outs in things like 1 month and 3 month USD LIBOR. 

Speaking of that, the SOFR/1month LIBOR spread blew out to 44 bps on Wednesday.  After the ECB’s performance and the worse than expected US CPI print (8.6% vs. 8.3% expected), I’m having a hard time believing we won’t see a wider spread than the 53 bps we saw the day of the last FOMC meeting by Wednesday’s next FOMC meeting.

The Political Fallout

What is most important here is that the ECB being exposed as having no ‘there there’ undermines the political positions of nearly every major politician across the euro-zone.  It’s not like a banking crisis is going to make Olaf Scholz’ coalition in Germany stronger or Draghi’s caretaker government in Italy.  

These guys will finally begin to feel real political anger for change as inflation eats away the middle class, high energy prices gut corporate profits and there is no end to the regulatory tyranny coming from Brussels, hell bent on forcing an anti-hydrocarbon agenda down everyone’s throat.  

That said, you know Davos will try to keep a tight lid on the EU’s core, because it carries the most political power.  What they won’t be able to control, once this begins to unravel, is what the so-called periphery does.

Bulgaria’s Davos-backed government lost a key partner this morning.  Boris Johnson is toast in the UK as the Night of the Tories Long Knives has come and gone. No one knows how to turn on their leadership like the Tories — Thatcher, May, now Johnson.

Turkey has all but declared war on Greece over Erdogan’s creative interpretation Greece’s sovereignty, accusing it of militarizing islands in the Aegean. Estonia lost its majority last week over inflation not caused by Russia, but by their own rabid Russophobia.

The economic realities of what Lagarde et.al. have set in motion but can’t control will be the collapse of nearly every major government in Europe over the next year or two while incentivizing countries like Hungary to declare independence from Brussels.

This is why Lagarde was so keen to remind us that she is aware of ‘fragmentation risks’ and that she’s on top of it. Too bad this is more bucking bronco than bucolic burro. I’ve got the under on whether she lasts the 8 seconds or not. 

The key is Russia continuing to grind out victories in Eastern Ukraine while using the time to reinforce its positions in the south and expose the utter bankruptcy of the West.   I told you that this was a race to someone’s Great Reset, not necessarily Davos’ when the war broke out.

Putin is upping the operational tempo on the neolibs of The Davos Crowd in Europe and the White House and their neocon useful idiots in the US/UK foreign policy circles, Congress and intelligence services to create the ultimate geopolitical Russian cauldron for their avarice.

Ukraine represents everyone’s existential threat.

If the neocons lose, they are done as an influence within foreign policy circles in the West forever because they will have failed to penetrate Fortress Russia.

If Davos loses, their grand plans for global domination become diminished to, at best, the European Union and some parts of the Commonwealth.

If Russia loses, the entire Global South, fails to escape the fiat, debt-based slavery of the Western central banking cartel, because they will control the flow of Russian natural resources in such a way that they will not be stopped. More on this later.

After Bojo the Bozo in the UK the big question is who’s next?

There’s a lot of speculation that the German government will fall, but I’ve seen this story play out in Italy before.  The coalition could fail and the President Frank-Walter Steinmeyer, a Davos man through and through, will refuse to sanction new elections and should force the parties to cobble together a new technocratic government that will be indistinguishable in policy from the existing one.

Since the Greens are embedded in nearly every state delegations to the German Bundesrat (upper house) there will be no real policy change since they control what legislation actually gets passed.

This is why Scholz is so weak.  

Since each state in the Bundesrat votes as a bloc, the Greens control 41 of the 69 votes there, giving them effective control over policy.  This was Merkel’s greatest achievement while Chancellor while also bamboozling Putin in to thinking the Minsk agreements were something other than a time-waster while NATO built and trained the Ukrainian army his men are now pummeling into dust.

This is what she set up with each of the state governments, by refusing any AFD coalitions to form in any state, she ensured that no matter what happened, there would be no challenge to the Greens revolution of Germany’s legislative agenda.  

Davos is setting up the failure of the German government to hand it to Brussels.  So, if the German government fails and Steinmeyer refuses to go for new elections, then the resultant caretaker government will be even weaker than Scholz’ government and ensure the complete betrayal of the German people to the EU.  

And the worst part will be that they will still feel like they have control over what happens to them next because the German people are still told they control EU policy at the top.

When in reality all that will happen is the EU will fracture along capital efficiency lines and the euro will drive it into bankruptcy, forcing real political fracturing. Eastern Europe will break off the moment the EU tries to enforce the energy embargo on Russia, especially if Russia gains Odessa and access to the Danube river system. Watch Bulgaria carefully as the next Soros-backed junta to fall completely to the economic reality of a dying EU.

Good job, Chrissie, you’ve achieved the exact opposite of what you intended, which is a unitarian banking and political system.  Because, as always, people respond to incentives.  In the US, we said no to Climate Change, CBDC’s and gun control.  In Russia, they said no to debt and Nazis.  And in China, they simply said no to oligarchs who weren’t Chinese.

Pretty easy to tear up the EUSSR under this scenario. Pretty easy to see what happens next.

END

GREECE/IRAN

Greece Releases Iranian Oil Tanker After Greek Shipping Threatened By IRGC In Gulf

TUESDAY, JUN 14, 2022 – 01:05 PM

After Tehran issued threats against Greek shipping in the Persian Gulf, Greece has reportedly released a the Iranian-flagged Lana tanker ship (previously known as the Pegas) which had been held since April.

Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency announced Tuesday that the vessel is “no longer impounded and its oil cargo will be returned to its owner.” It had been seized based on a US and EU sanctions enforcement order.

Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization (PMO) stated: “With the swift and authoritative action of Iran, the Greek government finally issued an order and we are now witnessing the lifting of the ship’s seizure and the return of its cargo to its owner.”

And Reuters reports that “A Greek court overturned an earlier ruling last week that allowed the confiscation by the United States of part of the Iranian-flagged tanker’s Iranian oil cargo off the Greek coast, three sources familiar with the matter said.”

The tanker was initially reported as associated with Russia, given it had 19 Russian crew members on board when it had engine trouble near the island of Evia, which brought it under European Union sanctions.

Thus it appears Athens is backing down amid threats of a tit-for-tat “tanker war” with Iran, given also the Iranian military’s presence in the Strait of Hormuz and gulf region. Last month IRGC forces seized a pair of Greek tankers as “punitive action” in response to the Iran-flagged tanker being held in Greece.

In late May, Tasnim news agency carried statements threatening that 17 other Greek-flagged tankers in the Persian Gulf risked seizure by the Islamic Republic

Despite the Iranian media statement that the cargo would be returned, it remains unclear whether the oil will be released back to the Iranian government in full.

Al Jazeera reports that “Iran said it expects oil cargo confiscated by the United States off the coast of Greece to be returned in full following a Greek court decision overturning an original ruling to allow its seizure.”

Now with the court ruling overturned, and with the Iranians seeing their aggressive moves against Greek shipping in the gulf as fully vindicated, it’s more than likely that if other European countries seize Iranian oil on the high sees, Tehran will respond in kind against Western or international ships.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

6//GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE

GLOBAL ISSUES/SUPPLY CHAINS

VACCINE INJURY

Vaccine Impact

The Financial Apocalypse Begins
June 13, 2022 5:59 pm
The “coming financial apocalypse” is no longer “coming.” It has arrived. Of course it can be argued that it has been here for quite some time already, but only a few in the alternative media were publishing the truth, as the corporate media and those financial “experts” employed by corporate media properties instead used terms like “recession,” mainly because the manipulated stock markets were still plowing ahead full steam gambling away the future and seemingly keeping things afloat and not understanding, or if understanding certainly not admitting, that the American stock exchanges had become nothing more than huge ponzi schemes. But that all changed on Friday last week, when key inflation figures released to the public ended up being much higher than the corporate media had been reporting. I had a feeling that all hell would break loose when the markets opened on Monday morning, and sure enough that is exactly what happened today.
Read More…



Michael Every//

Michael Every on the day’s most important topics

end

7. OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//

US NatGas Crashes After Freeport LNG Terminal Closure Update

TUESDAY, JUN 14, 2022 – 09:37 AM

Having initially suggested the Freeport LNG Terminal would be closed for three weeks after an ‘explosion’ shuttered the major exporet facility last week, the company has just issued an update saying that it now expects a partial restart in 90 days.

Full Statement: (emphasis ours)

At approximately 11:40AM CT on June 8, 2022, an incident occurred at the Freeport LNG liquefaction plant on Quintana Island, Texas that resulted in the release of LNG, leading to the formation and ignition of a natural gas vapor cloud, and subsequent fire at the facility. 

As reported previously, there were no injuries, and at no time did the incident pose a threat to the surrounding community.  In accordance with Freeport LNG’s safety design parameters, the LNG vapor cloud dispersion and ignition thereof were at all times contained within the fence line of the liquefaction facility, lasting approximately 10 seconds.  The fire and associated smoke visible thereafter were from the burning of materials in and around the location where the incident occurred, such as piping insulation and cabling.  With the assistance of local area emergency response personnel, the resultant fire was extinguished approximately 40 minutes after the initial incident.  While the burning of those materials resulted in carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, particulate matter, sulfur dioxide and volatile organic compound emissions, these were of limited quantity due to the short duration of the fire and not at levels that posed any immediate risk to Freeport LNG personnel or the surrounding community.  There was no release of any other chemicals or substances from the plant during the event.  Water used to suppress the subsequent fire was captured on site, and will be tested and confirmed free of any harmful contaminants before being released or removed for proper disposal.

The incident occurred in pipe racks that support the transfer of LNG from the facility’s LNG storage tank area to the terminal’s dock facilities located on the intracoastal (i.e., north) side of Freeport LNG’s dock basin.  None of the liquefaction trains, LNG storage tanks, dock facilities, or LNG process areas were impacted.  In coordination with local, state and federal officials, Freeport LNG’s investigation into the cause of the incident, and what steps are necessary to safely resume liquefaction operations, is underway.  Preliminary observations suggest that the incident resulted from the overpressure and rupture of a segment of an LNG transfer line, leading to the rapid flashing of LNG and the release and ignition of the natural gas vapor cloud.  Additional investigation is underway to determine the underlying precipitating events that enabled the overpressure conditions in the LNG piping.

At this time, completion of all necessary repairs and a return to full plant operations is not expected until late 2022.  Given the relatively contained area of the facility physically impacted by the incident, a resumption of partial operations is targeted to be achieved in approximately 90 days, once the safety and security of doing so can be assured, and all regulatory clearances are obtained.

Freeport LNG is mindful of the impact this incident and our suspension of operations has on our personnel, our surrounding community, and the domestic and international gas and LNG markets.  We have immense gratitude for the selfless efforts undertaken by Freeport LNG operators and emergency response personnel and local emergency responders to quickly address and contain the impacts of the event on our facilities, our personnel, and the surrounding community.

This sent US NatGas prices reeling, down almost 20%…

European NatGas prices are soaring…

As a reminder, the Texas facility is the fourth largest in the US in terms of flows. Freeport receives about 2 billion cubic feet of gas per day, or roughly 16% of total US LNG export capacity.

What will Biden do?

END

ILLINOIS/ELECTRICITY

Electricity Costs Soar Across Much Of Illinois As Risk Of Brownouts Loom

TUESDAY, JUN 14, 2022 – 11:25 AM

Authored by Mark Glennon, founder of Wirepoints,

Critics of Illinois’ aggressive effort to shift to renewable sources for making electricity have long said it’s like flying an airplane while trying to build it.

That airplane crashed faster than even they expected. Electricity bills and the risk of brownouts are jumping quickly in Illinois, and it’s not just green energy skeptics saying so.

The most significant warning came recently from the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, or MISO, which oversees the power grid for Illinois and much of the Midwest. Their warning was contained in a recent forecast by the North American Electric Reliability Corp., a regulatory authority that monitors risks to the grid, and was summarized by the Washington Post as follows:

Southern Illinois is among the most vulnerable places in the country heading into the summer, according to a newly published forecast by the North American Electric Reliability Corp., a regulatory authority that monitors risks to the grid.

The area, along with large parts of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and other states linked to the regional grid, has been put on notice in the forecast that it is facing a “high risk of energy emergencies during peak summer conditions.” A major reason is that some of the coal plants that regulators assumed would keep running for another year or two are instead coming offline. Some plant operators are choosing to shut down rather than invest in upgrades for coal plants that do not fit with states’ and the federal government’s long-term goals for clean energy.

“We are seeing these retirements occur at a faster pace than expected,” said Jim Robb, chief executive of the regulatory authority. “The economics aren’t great, so coal plant operators are saying ‘uncle.’” 

This map from the MISO report shows high risk areas in red, which include all of Illinois except the north.

Meanwhile, electricity costs are already spiking in much of the state, not just Southern Illinois, which local news sources have covered extensively.

For example, News 25 in Peoria reported that central Illinois consumers “will pay double for energy starting this month, as a deal mitigating costs for many communities expires, with no new contract in sight. Communities like Peoria, Morton and East Peoria all participate in municipal aggregation programs.”

And the City of Springfield already asked Illinoisans to begin cutting back on consumption in order to reduce the risks of brownouts.

That estimate of approximate doubling of energy costs was borne out in recent op-ed by the president of Ameren, which supplies electricity to much of Southern and Central Illinois. The “typical residential customer in the Ameren Illinois service territory is expected to see a 54% increase in their energy bill starting in June of 2022,” he wrote. “The actual impact will depend on the amount of energy used.”

How can this have happened? Illinois for decades had a competitive advantage thanks to reliable and relatively inexpensive electricity.

Multiple factors have converged to drive up prices, everyone seems to agree. They include inflation, the conflict in Ukraine, high natural gas prices and the closure of coal-fired electric power plants.

Unquestionably, however, the rush to green energy is playing a major underlying role in rising prices and capacity shortfall. Both Illinois and the federal government put a target on the back of the whole fossil fuel industry, stifling investment therein and quickening the closure of traditional power sources. And renewable sources just aren’t ready to fill the void.

Lawmakers and regulators simply blew it when matching demand against supply. As stated in the MISO report quoted above, a major reason for the brownout risk is that some of the coal plants that regulators assumed would keep running for another year or two are instead coming offline. Some plant operators are choosing to shut down rather than invest in upgrades for coal plants that do not fit with states’ and the federal government’s long-term goals for clean energy.

Power production just isn’t sufficient to reliably meet expected demand. External factors like the war in Ukraine do not explain the current capacity shortage.

CEJA, Illinois’ Clean Energy and Jobs Act, requires 100% renewable energy production by 2050, and was correctly called by its sponsors “the most aggressive, most progressive climate bill in the nation.”

It only passed last year, so CEJA’s defenders say it is not to blame for today’s mess. However, the writing was on the wall long before. It was clear that Illinois was headed in the direction CEJA took it at least since Gov. JB Pritzker made its general goals public upon taking office. It has been a similar story nationally. President Joe Biden promised in his campaign that, if he was elected, “No more subsidies for the fossil fuel industry. No more drilling including offshore. No ability for the oil industry to continue to drill period. It ends.”

What’s the result of policy and talk like that?

The Financial Times answered that in a column this weekend. Investment in energy production from fossil fuels dropped drastically, and it can’t easily be cranked up again. Biden, at least, has changed course, but it’s too late. He “has pleaded with the country’s oil producers to open the taps and stem the surge,” says the FT. “But those calls…have largely gone unheeded as the industry insists its drilling spree days are behind it.” Far fewer drilling rigs are at work and higher prices have not spurred further investment. That means higher prices for natural gas, one of the primary fuels for power plants.

It’s just not possible to turn on the spigot quickly. That takes years, and investors need more assurance on long-term investments than a temporary political reaction.

It’s the same situation for electric power plants. There’s no quick fix for Illinois’ now apparent shortage. Pritzker has shown no concern, and basically shrugged off the issue when asked about it. There’s little he can do in the near term even if he tried. It’s also possible that he really doesn’t care. A majority of the public thinks high energy prices are deliberate as a means to choke off fossil fuel consumption, and there’s no doubt that’s true of many green energy supporters. Pritzker’s silence only increases that suspicion.

Won’t those high energy prices and brownouts shrink the economy? All the better, as many on today’s left see things. “De-growth” is a movement in itself among many green activists, as cheerily described in The Nation.

A longer term solution is available by loosening Illinois’ legal mandate to shift to 100% renewable energy. The Illinois Manufacturers Association is among many who support that change, and they have long criticized the state’s policies on renewables. “Illinois has continued to fail miserably to provide enough renewable energy, and we’ve told them repeatedly you can’t shut down coal and gas plants unless you have enough energy to backfill it, and that’s what happening now,” says Mark Denzler, the association’s president.

That loosening could include an end to Illinois’ moratorium on construction of new nuclear plants. Today, nukes supply about 55% of Illinois electricity, but they are all scheduled to be out of service by around 2050. Getting new ones built, however, would require a federal government effort to streamline the morass of regulatory and litigation hurdles nukes face, which make their construction nearly impossible.

So far, however, we’ve seen no interest in any of that from the Pritzker Administration or the ruling majority in the General Assembly. For now, it appears they haven’t yet recognized that the airplane they were trying to fly while building already crashed.

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA/PAKISTAN

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0435 UP 0.0020 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED

USA/ YEN 134.51   UP 0.251 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2079 DOWN   0.0064

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 33.35 POINTS UP 1.02%

 Hang Sang CLOSED  UP 0.41 PTS OR 0.00%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 3.69%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 0.41 PTS OR 0.00%   

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 33.35 PTS UP 1.02% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN  3.69% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  DOWN 357.58 OR 1.33%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1820.60

silver:$21.13

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 104.99  UP 2  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

 TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.11%  UP 12  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.242% DOWN 2     AND 9/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.10%// UP 12   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.24  UP 13   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.76%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0416 UP  0.0001    or 1 basis points

USA/Japan: 134.80 UP 0.563  OR YEN DOWN  56  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2081 DOWN 0.01333 OR 133  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0040 OR 40 BASIS pts  to 1.2929

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP 6.7410  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.7560

TURKISH LIRA:  17.28  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.242

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 6  IN basis points from MONDAY at  3.429% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.402 UP 3 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 105.17 UP 21   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 9.93 PTS OR  0.13%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 102.29  POINTS OR 0.76%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 58.41 PTS OR 0.97% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 104.60 OR 1.28%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 26.35 PTS OR  0.12%

WTI Oil price 120.64   12: EST

Brent Oil:  121.93  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  56.80  UP  1/8        RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.760

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0412 DOWN   .0003   OR  DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1978 down .01662  or  166 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 135.306 up 1.07//YEN down 107 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2949 up .0061 (CDN dollar down 61 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 118.00

Brent OIL:  120.53

USA 10 yr bond yield: 3.493 UP 12 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.439  UP  7  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.27

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  56.60 UP  1/5/ ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 150.79 PTS OR 0.49%

NASDAQ 100 UP 23.37 PTS OR 0.21%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 32.18 DOWN 1.84 PTS (5.41)%

GLD: 168.61 DOWN 1.33 PTS OR 0.78%

SLV/ 19.39 DOWN .12 PTS OR 0.62%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks, Bonds, Oil & Gas Dump; Dollar & VIX Jump Ahead Of Fed

TUESDAY, JUN 14, 2022 – 04:01 PM

Stocks were choppier today than the recent utter destruction but still could not hold a bid. Overnight saw some strength with Nasdaq up almost 2% ahead of the European open… but that as good as it got as selling pressure hit and despite a small impulse higher at the European close, stocks headed to the lows of the day. Of course, with about 30 minutes to go, a panic bid revived hopes. The Nasdaq managed to close green, the rest not so much…

There was one group that was green today – MonkeyPox vaccine makers…

Notably, ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC statement and presser, VIX was bid back up over 30 again today (some VIX options expired too)…

Credit markets are cracking with both IG and HY spreads blowing out…

Since right before last Friday’s CPI, the short-end of the curve is up a stunning 63bps (and long-end up 26bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

2s30s inverted, falling to its most inverted since Nov 2006…

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y yield surged above 3.45% to its highest since 2011…

Source: Bloomberg

European bonds were bloodbath again with fragmentation accelerating (peripheral bond spreads decoupling notably)…

Source: Bloomberg

The DXY dollar index rallied for the 5th straight day to fresh cycle highs back to Dec 2002…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were hammered lower once again with Bitcoin breaking below $21k intraday, but finding some support…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold extended its losses (amid the stronger dollar), testing back down towards $1800…

US NatGas prices plunged today after Freeport reported that it will take 90 days to get at least a partial restart of its LNG export terminal in Texas. European NatGas prices surged (less supply from US exports) and US NatGas crashed back in line (on an oil barrel energy equivalent basis) to WTI prices…

Oil prices surged initially, with WTI back up near its highest since Putin invaded…

But then headlines of chatter from Washington unveiling a windfall profits tax on Big Oil seemed to take prices back down again ahead of tonight’s API inventory data…

Finally, the market is fully pricing in a 75bps hike tomorrow and 90% sure of another 75bps hike in July. September also shows a 35% chance of a 75bps hike and November an 88% chance of a 50bps hike!!

Add that to December’s expectation and we are looking at 12 more 25bp rate-hikes priced in by year-end… which would then be followed after March 2023 by 3 rate-cuts as The Fed tries to rescue the economy from recession…

Source: Bloomberg

And in case you think stocks have it all priced in…

Source: Bloomberg

They don’t!

But knowing this market, if The Fed hikes 100bps tomorrow (or 150bps… or 200bps) algos will rip stocks higher because that means recession and more imminent rate-cuts and QE.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3JlZnNyY19zZXNzaW9uIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9mZiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0Zndfc2Vuc2l0aXZlX21lZGlhX2ludGVyc3RpdGlhbF8xMzk2MyI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJpbnRlcnN0aXRpYWwiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3R3ZWV0X3Jlc3VsdF9taWdyYXRpb25fMTM5NzkiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoidHdlZXRfcmVzdWx0IiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1536794639239454720&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Foil-gas-bonds-dump-dollar-vix-jump-ahead-fed&sessionId=eeda4fd6d1c6363bce14877a29dce7b834668866&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=b45a03c79d4c1%3A1654150928467&width=550px

But that rally – and easing of financial conditions – will merely enable The Fed to be as or more aggressive at its next meeting, hence the ratcheting down nature of financial conditions.

As Marc Lasry warned towards the end of the day in a Bloomberg interview: “you’ll have more selling, more pain” before the end of the year, adding that bottom will come after the summer.

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING/

MIDMORNING

ii) USA DATA

US Producer Price Inflation Hovers Near Record Highs, Energy Costs Dominate

TUESDAY, JUN 14, 2022 – 08:38 AM

Following CPI’s unexpected crushing of the ‘peak inflation’ narrative, analysts expected PPI to slow modestly from 11.0% YoY to 10.9% YoY in May. US Producer Prices actually printed a slight miss at +10.8% YoY and was up 0.8% MoM – the 25th straight month of increasing prices…

Source: Bloomberg

Nearly two thirds of the May increase was due to an advance in goods prices, especially energy.

On Goods:

Forty percent of the May increase in prices for final demand goods can be attributed to an 8.4-percent advance in the index for gasoline. Prices for jet fuel, residential natural gas, steel mill products, diesel fuel, and processed young chickens also moved higher.

Conversely, the index for beef and veal fell 9.5 percent. Prices for iron and steel scrap and for commercial electric power also decreased.

On Services:

Nearly 30 percent of the May increase in the index for final demand services can be attributed to prices for truck transportation of freight, which rose 2.9 percent. The indexes for services related to securities brokerage and dealing (partial), machinery and equipment wholesaling, chemicals and allied products wholesaling, automobiles and automobile parts retailing, and transportation of passengers (partial) also advanced.

In contrast, margins for fuels and lubricants retailing declined 21.7 percent. The indexes for portfolio management and for guestroom rental also moved lower.

Core PPI also missed expectations (to the downside), rising 0.5% MoM (vs +0.6% exp) and +8.3% YoY (vs +8.6% exp). Notably April’s data was revised significantly lower across the board.

The pipeline for producer price inflation remains troublesome as intermediate demand goods prices stubbornly remained notably above the headline…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, margins remain under pressure as the CPI-PPI proxy remains significantly underwater…

Source: Bloomberg

So, will a 75bps hike tomorrow fix all this?

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

end

iii)a.  USA economic stories

The world is short of dollars and seems to be the only hedge left with the upcoming stagflation/recession scenario facing everybody.

(zerohedge_

“I Need A Dollar”

TUESDAY, JUN 14, 2022 – 10:24 AM

There are some powerful forces in the FX market at the moment: looking at the Bloomberg US Dollar index, shows that the global dollar short squeeze is almost as powerful as the depths of the covid crisis…

… and as Jim Reid writes today, one can make a strong argument that the USD is at extreme overvaluation territory but for the moment the prevailing driver of the continued rally seems to be a stagflation/ recession/flight to quality hedge (i.e., the world is on the verge of a historic market crash).

DB’s George Saravelos goes two for two, and after his must-read observations on the Japanese MMT endgame, put out an excellent piece over the weekend showing the high inverse correlation between a UST and S&P 500 equal weighted portfolio and the USD this year.

George explains that the dollar has assumed the role of the global stagflation hedge with USD cash being one of the few financial assets offering returns. This is aligned with the feedback he and his team have received from extensive client meetings in the Continent over the last few weeks: European investors are telling them that they are selling down their (overweight) US bond and equity positions. But instead of repatriating the cash, they are hoarding it in dollars. This is clearly evident in US capital flow data which show the foreign dollar cash pile is close to record peaks.

As Reid concludes, “this is unlikely to go on indefinitely but at the moment the USD’s flight to quality qualities are overpowering everything and sending valuations to extreme territory.”

END

END

iii b USA//inflation stories/log jams etc/

Housing affordability is basically non existent as mortgage rates soar to 6.1%

(zerohedge)

Housing Affordability Hits Record Low As Mortgage Rates Soar To 6.1%

MONDAY, JUN 13, 2022 – 09:40 PM

Back in March, when the average mortgage rate was still “only” 4.5%, we anticipated the coming rate explosion and warned that “Housing Affordability Is About To Crash The Most On Record.” Fast forward to today when the latest 30Y average mortgage has just surged to a stunning 6.13% from 3.25% at the start of the year …

… the highest rate since the great housing crash of 2007/2008, in the process sending housing affordability – just as we warned – to the lowest on record.

Alas, it’s about to get even lower, because a simple back of the envelope calculation reveals that the jump in mortgage rates from 3.25% to 6.13% means that new homebuyers face an average monthly payment on a typical new $350,000 mortgage (the median existing home sale price is just under $400K) that has gone up from $1523 to $2128, a 40% increase in 6 months!

Another way of putting this: at a 6.13% mortgage (and rates will still keep rising for a long time with the Fed now set to hike between 125bps and 150bps in the next two months), the average home price needs to fall 30% to reach pre-covid affordability.

Whether it was intended or not, the Fed is about to unleash the biggest housing crisis since the bursting of the 2007 bubble. It also means that in a few weeks, the Fed’s scramble to undo the damage it has done to the US economy will make March 2020 seems like a walk in the park.

END

Feminine hygiene products:

(Watson/SummitNews)

Watch: Now Women Can’t Get Sanitary Products In Biden’s America

TUESDAY, JUN 14, 2022 – 10:46 AM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Already faced with having to wait for baby formula to be shipped in from the UK and Europe, American women are now struggling to get sanitary products in the latest embarrassing supply chain break down under Joe Biden.

Insider reports that “The war in Ukraine has also affected supplies of plastics and absorbency materials used to manufacture products, and fertilizer needed to grow cotton.

Ok, it’s Ukraine again is it? Right.

According to Nielsen IQ, the average cost of a box of tampons has ballooned by 10%, and retailers are now jacking up prices owing to shortages.

New Hampshire Senator Maggie Hassan addressed the issue Monday, writing to the CEO of Procter & Gamble, calling the situation “very troubling.” and urging the manufacturer to deal with the situation.

Meanwhile, NPR has been relentlessly mocked for describing the tampon shortage as a problem for ‘people who menstruate’.

Embarrassing and shameful.

*  *  *

end

 

iv)swamp stories

end

King Report

The King Report June 14, 2022 Issue 6781Independent View of the News
 ESUs (September [U] is the front month for equity futures)
 
On Sunday night, the 3-32, 5-32, 7-32, and 20-32 yield curves were inverted.  The 2-10 curve was within 3bps of inverting.  Bonds see recession and inflation.
 
In early US trading, 2s hit 3.22%, and USUs were -1 31/32.  ESUs were -108.00 (3792.75) at 9:38 ET.  The S&P 500 Index hit 3792.82 at 9:43 ET, its lowest level since March 5, 2021 (3720.19 low).  The NY Fang+ Index was -4.77% at 9:41 ET.  Hope someone gave The Big Guy a waffle cone to pacify him!
 
After a modest rebound rally from the conditioned dip buyers, ESUs and USUs headed to new daily lows.
At 10:51 ET, The NY Fang+ Index hit -6.21% at 10:40 ET.  USUs hit -2 17/32 and the US 2-year hit 3.249% at 11:08 ET; ESUs sank to -149.00; The S&P 500 Index fell to 3752.30.  The rally for the European close then commenced.  ESUs were forced to 3792.75 at 11:40 ET, +40.50 from the low.
 
During the equity rally into the European close, US 2s hit 3.32% and USUs hit -2 20/32.  After the European close, USUs sank to -3 5/32; 2s rallied to 3.224%.  The bond bounce ended at 12:18 ET.  USUs retreated to the daily low.
 
@RNCResearch: Back from his weekend in Delaware, Joe Biden strolled into work today at a cool 12:30 p.m.  (Why does he have to retreat to DE?)  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1536398082195263489
 
ESMs rallied from the low of 3750.50 at 11:09 ET to 3815.50 (+65.00) at 12:36 ET.  At 13:32 ET, they had fallen to 3770.25.  at 13:40 ET, someone forced ESUs 31 handles higher in 10 minutes.  But that was it; ESUs declined 33.00.  The pre-last hour rally began at 14:32 ET; it ended 5 minutes later.  ESUs sank to 3756.00 at 15:15 ET.  Then the late upward manipulation commenced.  ESUs jumped 26 handles in 2 minutes!  The rally quickly reversed because bonds collapsed.  ESUs sank to a new daily low (3735.25).
During the final 10 minutes of NYSE trading, someone pushed ESUs 22 handles higher.
 
During the early afternoon ESU rally, USUs went inert, hovering about ¼ above the low.  They remained inert until breaking down at 14:53 ET.  USUs tanked to -4 at 15:19 ET!  2s hit 3.398%!  When bonds decline this much, entities on The Street are in big trouble.  The only question is who and how many!
 
Ex-GS & Citi trader @simon_ree: People often wonder why the bond market is “smarter” than the stock market. It all boils down to this: Bond traders read books filled with difficult math and go to AGMs and corporate briefings.  Equity traders read magazines and go to ball games and strip clubs.
 
Commodities plunged on Monday morning; but WTI Oil turned positive at 11:51 ET.  It later retreated.
 
The Dollar Index soared to its highest level since November 2002!  The dollar/yen hit its highest level since September 1998. 
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Stocks had a robust late morning rally
 
Negative aspects of previous session
US equities and bonds got hammered
The 2-year note hit 3.398%, highest % since 11/2007; the 10-year hit 3.63%, highest % since 4/2011.
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Commodities, ex-oil, got hammered – recession angst or inflation retreat?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: DownLast Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3774.03
Previous session High/Low3938.15; 3734.30
 
CNN: Gas prices will tumble below $3 a gallon soon, government forecasts    December 8, 2021
The US Energy Information Administration said Tuesday the national average for regular gasoline will probably drop to $3.01 a gallon in January. For 2022, gas prices are expected to average $2.88
    Citigroup went further Tuesday, saying the energy boom that is fanning the flames of inflation is over, in a message to clients.  “We are especially bearish over the next three years when it comes to energy, whether thermal coal, natural gas or oil,” Citi’s commodity strategists wrote in a new report, “where we anticipate significant oversupply and persistent downward price pressures.”
    The investment bank projected a “radical drop” in energy costs, with oil facing a potential “bear market” next year due to ample supply, Omicron and other factors that will drive volatility.
    Citi sees US oil prices tumbling to an average of just $59 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2022 and $51 by the final quarter of 2023…  https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/08/business/gas-price-forecast/index.html
 
Lunch for 2 at Five Guys – $44.02 (2 cheeseburgers, 2 fries, 2 shakes)
https://twitter.com/iowa_2a/status/1536020443261550592
 
Now that anyone with a modicum of financial sense realizes that the US stock market is a bear market, the compelling question becomes: Is this a cyclical or secular bear market.
 
It is too early to ascertain whether the US is in a cyclical or secular bear market.  However, over the past 40 years, equity bear markets have been cyclical due to the secular bond bull market and the ability of the Fed to create credit and bailout the elites without triggering inflation.
 
Ergo, the odds are higher than any time since the Seventies that the US could experience a secular bear market.  This leads to another compelling question:  How does one recognize a secular bear market bottom.  In 1974, a NYSE seat cost less than a NYC cab medallion.  In 1982, US stock valuations were comparable, or cheaper by some calculations, than the 1932 Grand Super Cycle bottom.
 
@stacyhrae: While you’re being distracted with the Jan. 6th $#itshow, the Pentagon admits that it has operated 46 Biolabs in Ukraine handling dangerous pathogens after months of dismissing the charges as Russian propaganda.
 
US Department of Defense: Fact Sheet on WMD Threat Reduction Efforts with Ukraine, Russia and Other Former Soviet Union Countries – The United States has also worked collaboratively to improve Ukraine’s biological safety, security, and disease surveillance for both human and animal health, providing support to 46 peaceful Ukrainian laboratories, health facilities, and disease diagnostic sites over the last two decades… (Didn’t the DoD initially say it was only 6 labs?)
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3057517/fact-sheet-on-wmd-threat-reduction-efforts-with-ukraine-russia-and-other-former/
 
Joe Biden, January 2022: The stock market “has hit record after record after record on my watch”
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1536445022043774976
 
Fox’s Doocy: “Biden once bragged about the stock market ‘hitting record, after record, after record on my watch.’ How about now?”  (Press Sec) Jean-Pierre: “The American people are well positioned to face these challenges because of the economic historic gains that we have made under [Biden].”
https://twitter.com/FreeBeacon/status/1536439184805740544
 

 
Technical Picture: DJTAS&P 500NasdaqTLT (20+ year T-bond ETF)
 
If Powell, who claims to revere Paul Volcker, wants to arrest inflation ala Volcker, he must at the least force the Fed Funds Target Rate above the US 2-year note yield.  This is the last time that a Fed CEO did what is necessary to halt inflation.  Since then, 2s have fallen below the Funds Rate four times, which is far different that the Fed forcing Funds above the 2-year yield.
 
However, the 2s-FF spread does NOT reveal the extent of Volcker had to do to halt inflation.
 

 
Fed Funds Target Rate vs. 2-year yield vs. CPI y/y – What if Funds must top CPI to halt inflation?
 
Today – Some trading entities are in big trouble due to the extreme leverage used in bond trading.
Furthermore, analysts estimate that 2/3 of $610 trillion derivatives market (as of June 30, 2021) are interest rate related.  Any move beyond historic norms could generate unimaginable losses.  The historic move beyond the norms of MBS created the Crisis of 2008-2009.  Soon, those in trouble will be revealed.
 
US stocks are extremely oversold on a trading basis.  If May PPI is worse than expected, ESUs could stage a robust rebound on an initial drop.  Astute traders will carefully monitor how much ESUs rally by the NYSE open.  If the rally is manic, they will probably wait to see how the NYSE open and the first 30 minutes trade.  The window for a trading rally should open today and persist until traders prepare for the FOMC Communique release at 14:00 ET on Wednesday.
 
From Monday’s King Report: Ugly Thursday-Friday sequences tend to generate very ugly Mondays. 
 
ESMs are +6.00 at 20:05 ET; the 2-year is 3.394%.  The odds of a 75bp Fed rate hike are now 95%.
 
Expected economic data: May PPI 0.8% m/m, 10.8% y/y; Core 0.5% m/m, 8.6% y/y; May NFIB Small Biz Optimism 93; FOMC begins two-day meeting
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4183; 100-day MA: 4297; 150-day MA: 4423; 200-day MA: 4437
DJIA 50-day MA: 33,168; 100-day MA: 33,753; 150-day MA: 34,433; 200-day MA: 34,582
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4925.61 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4261.31 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4066.68 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3887.10 triggers a buy signal
 
Patriot Front Member Was Arrested in Idaho Carrying Megaphone Marked with “FBI” On It
Let’s hope the megaphone is returned to the feds… The FBI may need it for their next rally.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/06/oops-patriot-front-member-arrested-idaho-carrying-megaphone-marked-fbi/
 
Why does the FBI place informants in some groups, but not in Antifa or leftists groups, even those that had committed much violence?
 
Joe Biden’s Submissive — and Highly Revealing — Embrace of Saudi Despots
Biden’s immediate abandonment of his 2020 vow to turn the Saudis into “pariahs,” and his increasing support for the regime, shows the core deceit of U.S. propaganda
    Obama/Biden White House — along with their junior British counterparts — was singularly responsible for the ability of the Saudi regime to survive and to wage this devastating war in Yemen. But that is nothing new. The centerpiece of U.S. policy in the Middle East for decades has been to prop up Saudi despots with weapons and diplomatic protection in exchange for the Saudis serving U.S. interests with their oil supply and ensuring the use of the American dollar as the reserve currency on the oil market… Indeed, what angered the permanent ruling class in Washington was not Trump’s policy of embracing the ruling Saudi monarchs, but rather his honesty and candor about why he was doing so. American presidents are not supposed to admit explicitly that they are overlooking the human rights abuses of their allies due to the benefits that relationship provides
https://greenwald.substack.com/p/joe-bidens-submissive-and-highly?s=02
 
Some pundits believe Biden’s July sojourn to Israel and Saudi Arabia will be less about the Saudis pumping more oil and more about handling Iran now that it has enough fissionable material for a bomb.
 
Kavanaugh assassination attempt ignored by Sunday shows https://t.co/45t9LrtLQu
 
When asked why Biden has not condemned the assassination attempt on Kavanaugh, the WH Press Sec claimed that The Big Guy already did so.  This is a lie.  The WH issued a statement that Joe condemns the planned attack.  But Biden has not publicly condemned the planned assassination.
 
@RealMacReport: Gov. DeSantis says protests outside a Supreme Court justice’s house “would be considered an insurrection.”  https://twitter.com/RealMacReport/status/1536367462924570627
 
@BuckSexton: Never underestimate the willingness of Republicans to betray their base and bend the knee for a pathetic pat on the head from Democrats who despise them
 
Should we trust the people who weaponized and politicized the DOJ, FBI, and CDC to judicially and fairly apply red-flag laws?
 
CNN: Barr says voting by mail is ‘playing with fire’    September 2, 2020
This is playing with fire. We’re a very closely divided country here,” Barr said on CNN’s “The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer” of changes this year where states are allowing more voting by mail because of the pandemic.  “People trying to change the rules to this, to this methodology — which, as a matter of logic, is very open to fraud and coercion — is reckless and dangerous and people are playing with fire,” Barr added… https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/02/politics/barr-mail-in-voting-playing-with-fire-situation-room/index.html
 
Barr yesterday to Jan 6 Committee: “To datewe have not seen fraud on a scale that could have effected a different outcome in the election.”  (Is a statement with at least 3 qualifiers Jabberwocky?)
 
Why not just say, “There was no fraud that affected the election”?
 
@DineshDSouza: Now Fox is in the strange position of reporting Bill Barr and Liz Cheney’s slanders against #2000Mules without being able to discuss the merits or have me on to dispute these ignorant claims. This is what happens to a news network that decides to stop being a news network.
    The #January6th hearings aren’t a trial. There is no “other side.” This is a show trial in the Stalin mode. Guilty until proven innocent. No wonder the Left loves it! It’s a symbol of the tyrannical one party state they are trying to install in this country.  
   Barr is the stereotypical small-town sheriff, overweight and largely immobile, whose rank incompetence results in the whole town being robbed from under his nose. Then, asked to explain how it happened, Fatso breaks into laughter and insists the robbery itself is “bull$#it” (Another horrid DJT hire)
    I’d like to invite Bill Barr to a public debate on election fraud. Given his blithe chuckling dismissal of #2000Mules this should be easy for him. What do you say, Barr? Do you dare to back up your belly laughs with arguments that can withstand rebuttal and cross-examination?
 
Over the past 18 months or so, we have regularly published media reports of people convicted of or charged with vote fraud.  Yet Bill Barr, who warned two months before the 2020 election that mail-in voting would be rife with fraud at a time of great division in the country, is being coy about vote fraud. 
 
WSJ Editorial Board: Climate-Change Censorship: Phase Two
Now Gina McCarthy tells Big Tech to stifle debate global-warming policy responses.
    White House national climate adviser Gina McCarthy wants social media platforms to censor content on the costs of a force-fed green energy transition…
https://wsj.com/articles/climate-censorship-phase-two-gina-mccarthy-social-media-biden-white-house-11655156191
 
Happy Flag Day!

Greg Hunter

SEE YOU WEDNESDAY

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