JUNE 16/THE DOLLAR FALLS ON NEWS OF HOW THE EUROPEANS WILL SOLVE THEIR FRAGMENTATION BY BUYING THE PERIPHERAL BONDS AND SELLING THE NORTHERN GANG (THE STRONG ONES)//GOLD ROSE BY $28.95 TO $1847.25//SILVER ROSE 46 CENTS TO $21.88//PLATINUM ROSE $10.85 TO $955.50//PALLADIUM ROSE $26.60 TO $1885.90//ENGLAND INCREASES ITS INTEREST RATE BY ONLY .25%: INITIALLY POUND PLUMMETS BUT THEN RECOVERS ALONG WITH OTHER EUROPEAN ENTERPRISES//SWISS NATIONAL BANK RAISES RATES BY .25% THE FIRST IN MANY YEARS AS THEY SEEM TO WANT A STRONG FRANC//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE//USA FOOD SHORTAGE STORIES/MORE DISTURBING DATA COMING FROM THE USA//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1847.25 UP $28.95 

SILVER: $21.77 UP $0.46

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1833.90

SILVER: $21.69

Bitcoin morning price:  $21,143 DOWN 526

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $20,969  DOWN 874  

Platinum price: closing UP $10.85 to $955.50

Palladium price; closing UP $26.60  at $1885.90

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX EXCHANGE:EXCHANGE: 

COMEX

no. of contracts issued by JPMorgan:  767/878

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JUNE 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,815.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/15/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 06/17/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


118 C MACQUARIE FUT 102 9
323 C HSBC 15
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 9
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 18
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 26
661 C JP MORGAN 776 767
700 C UBS 8
709 H BARCLAYS 9
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 8
800 C MAREX SPEC 5
905 C ADM 4


TOTAL: 878 878
MONTH TO DATE: 23,689

_____________________________________________________________________________________ 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JUNE CONTRACT 878  NOTICE(S) FOR 87,800 Oz//2/7399  TONNES)

total notices so far: 23,689 contracts for 2,368,900 oz (73.683 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

71 NOTICE(S) FILED 355,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  1762 :  for 8,810,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $28.95

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 46 CENTS

AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 544.399 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED  6053 CONTRACTS TO 145,925   AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE HUGE LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $0.44 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.44) BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SILVER LONGS//BUT MAINLY WE HAD ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR ADDITIONS.  

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS /. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 7.635 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 26 CONTRACTS OR 130,000 OZ//NEW STANDING:  8,900,000 / //  V)    GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  :-XXX

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JUNE. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 12 days, total 10,177,  contracts:  50.535 million oz  OR 4.208 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (848 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 50.535 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 50.535 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF  6053 DESPITE OUR STRONG  $0.44 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 945 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE. OF 7.635 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 130,000 QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING: 8,900,000 OZ //  .. WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS OF 5108 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 25.54 MILLION  OZ DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE. 

 WE HAD 71  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  355,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A GOOD SIZED 5343 CONTRACTS  TO 492,113 AND FURTHER NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -591 CONTRACTS.

.

THE  STRONG LOSS IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $6.50//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   //AND SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING 

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 69.26 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE /FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  2900 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON //NEW STANDING:  74.606 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF   $6.50 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 2878  OI CONTRACTS 8.951 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A fair SIZED  2465 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 492,113

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2878, WITH 5343 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2465 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2878 CONTRACTS OR 8.951 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2465) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (5343,): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2878 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AND SOME ADDITION TO SPECULATOR SHORTS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE. AT 69.26 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P.  JUMP  OF 2900 OZ//NEW STANDING: 74.696 TONNES /  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS //.,4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JUNE

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE :

50,000 CONTRACTS OR 5,000,000 OZ OR 155.52  TONNES 12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4166 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 155.52 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  155.52/3550 x 100% TONNES  4.38% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 155.52 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 6053 CONTRACT OI TO 145,925 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 945 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY 945  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 6053 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 945 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS OF 5108   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 25.54 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF  $0.44 .

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

end

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.02 PTS OR 0.61%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 462.78 PTS OR 2.13%    /The Nikkei closed UP 105.04 OR 0.40%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.03%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.7149    /Oil DOWN TO 113.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 116.23 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7149 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7204: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER/

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 5343 CONTRACTS TO 492,113 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $6.50 IN GOLD PRICING  WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2465 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ADDED TO THEIR SHORT POSITIONS

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2465 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 AUG :2465 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2465 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED  TOTAL OF 2878  CONTRACTS IN THAT 2465 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 5343  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS  LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE  OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF GOLD $6.50.   

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING JUNE   (74.606),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.609 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $6.50) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF  SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A FAIR SIZED GAIN  OF 7113 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE (74.609 TONNES)

WE HAD 297 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2287 CONTRACTS OR 228,700  OZ OR 7.113 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 170,654/// poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  215,239  /fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JUNE ’22 COMEX GOLD //JUNE 16

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz133,169.434 ozMalcaBrinks4142 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznilOZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil
No of oz served (contracts) today878  notice(s)87800 OZ2.7309 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)297 contracts 29,700 oz0.9237 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month23,689 notices2,368,900 OZ73.683 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

No dealer withdrawals

0 customer deposits

total deposits: nil oz

2 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks  257.200 oz 8 kilobars

ii) Out of MALCA:  132,912.234 oz (4134 kilobars)

total withdrawal: 133,169.434  oz

ADJUSTMENTS: 0 

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE.

For the front month of JUNE we have an  oi of 1175 contracts having LOST 233 contracts

We had 204 notices filed on WEDNESDAY so we LOST 29   contracts or an additional 2900 oz will NOT  stand for gold in this very active month of June as they were EFP’d to London 

July has a GAIN OF 7 OI to stand at 1873

August has a loss of 5573 contracts DOWN to 407,782 contracts

We had 878 notice(s) filed today for  87,800 oz FOR THE JUNE 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  776 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 878 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and  767 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (23,689) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JUNE 1175  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 878 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,398,600 OZ  OR 74.609 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of JUNE. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE contract month:

No of notices filed so far (23,689) x 100 oz+   (1175)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (878} x 100 oz} which equals 2,401,500 oz standing OR 74.609 TONNES in this   active delivery month of JUNE.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  74,609 TONNES  (A STRONG STANDING FOR A JUNE (  ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,419,784.828 oz   75.26 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  34,155,141.645 OZ 

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 16,642,191.923  OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,512,949.725 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,093154.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  

END

JUNE 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//JUNE 16

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory2,077,452.220  ozDelaware
HSBCManfraJPMorgan
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory228,561.000OZManfra
Deposits to the Customer Inventorynil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)71CONTRACT(S)355,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)18 contracts (90,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)1762 contracts 8,810,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  1 dealer deposit

Into Manfra: 228,361.000 oz  

total dealer deposits:  228,361.000    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 4 deposit into the customer account

i) Into Delaware 521,340.466 oz

ii) Into HSBC:  601,976.450 oz

iii) Into JPMorgan: 599,273.224 oz

iv) Into Manfra: 354,861.900 oz

total deposit:  2077,452.224    oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 169,645 million oz/337.252 million =50.29% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 3

i) International Delaware 19,391.09 oz

ii) Malca  551,742.632 oz


iii) Out of JPMorgan: 557,742.632 oz

total withdrawal  1,761,835.722        oz

0 adjustments:  

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 71.395 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 337.252 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JUNE OI: 89 HAVING GAINED 7 CONTRACTS. 

WE HAD 19 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 26 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 130,000 OZ WILL  STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE

DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE

JULY HAD A LOSS OF 9023 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 56,768 CONTRACTS.

AUGUST LOST 2 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1001

SEPTEMBER HAD A GAIN OF 2971 CONTRACTS UP TO 71,011 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 71 for  355,000 oz

Comex volumes:61,834// est. volume today//   fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 88,658 contracts ( good )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1762 x 5,000 oz = 8,810,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE(89) and the number of notices served upon today 71  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JUNE./2022 contract month: 1762 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE (89)  – number of notices served upon today (71) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month equates 8,900,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $28.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $6.50/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.55: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD UP $21.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.75//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 2/WITH GOLD UP $22.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.20 TONNES

JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $1$ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AWITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.36 TONNES

MAY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.10: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.95//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

May 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.10/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

MAY 25/WITH GOLD UP @$2.70: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.89./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.07 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.97 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS  AT 1056.18 TONNES

MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $24.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.21 TONNES//

GLD INVENTORY: 1063.75 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10.WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 Z FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 923,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.229 MILLION OZ

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.459 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.167 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER DOWN $.34: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITTHDRAWAL OF 246,000 OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.626 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 2/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.261 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS T 553.872 MILLION OZ

JUNE 1/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.538 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.133 MILLION OZ//

MAY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN $.41 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST S AT 558.071 MILLION OZ//

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.071 MILLION OZ///

MAY 26/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.515 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.071 MILLION OZ

MAY 25/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .922 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.486 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20.WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WIHDRAWAL OF .785 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Will This Be The Last Move In The Fed’s Inflation Fight?

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 09:32 AM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

The Federal Reserve took a more aggressive swing at red-hot inflation at its June FOMC meeting, raising interest rates by 3/4%. It was the biggest hike since 1994. The question is will this be the last swing at inflation?

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continues to claim a “soft landing” is possible and the Fed can get inflation back to the 2% target without tipping the economy into a recession. He insists the economy remains strong and the American consumer is healthy.

I’m not convinced about any of this.

Keep in mind this is the same guy who told us pumping trillions of dollars into the economy during the pandemic wouldn’t cause inflation and then that inflation was “transitory.” The Fed has a pretty miserable track record when it comes to its economic projections.

The 75 basis-point rate hike wasn’t a complete surprise after the May CPI data came in hotter than expected. Markets immediately began pricing in the hike. But just one month ago, a 3/4% interest rate increase wasn’t even under consideration.

Reading between the lines, I think that the Fed hoped that its meager 50 basis-point hike last month, along with a little tough talk, would rein in the inflation dragon. During his post-meeting press conference, Powell confessed the committee was surprised it didn’t work.

We’ve been expecting progress and we didn’t get that; we got sort of the opposite.”

With the data clearly indicating inflation hasn’t peaked, the Fed had little choice but to get more aggressive.

Powell even left the possibility of another 75 basis-point rate increase on the table. But he also gave the Fed some wiggle room to slow its roll.

Clearly, today’s 75-basis-point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common. From the perspective of today, either a 50-basis-point or a 75-basis-point increase seems most likely at our next meeting. We will, however, make our decisions meeting by meeting and we’ll continue to communicate our thinking as clearly as we can.”

As far as balance sheet reduction goes, there wasn’t any change in policy. The FOMC statement said, “The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet that were issued in May.”

Powell said, “We are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet.” [Emphasis added]

Using the word “significantly” seems a bit of an overstatement given the size of the balance sheet. And the plan outlined last month was less than impressive. It’s certainly not significant. If the central bank follows through (and it almost certainly won’t) it would take about eight years to reduce the balance sheet back to prepandemic levels.

The mainstream praised the Fed for its aggressive move against inflation. The stock market even rallied. But in the big scheme of things, this was not particularly aggressive. FOMC members think that pushing rates to 3.5 to 4% should do the trick. Remember, Paul Volker had to run rates up to 20% to slay the inflation dragon of the 1970s. That was well above the CPI at the time, meaning the Fed would need to get rates over 8% to tame the current bout of inflation. (And of course, the actual CPI is much closer to those 1970s levels than the cooked numbers used today indicate.)

I don’t think it will even get rates to 3%.

Pop Goes the Bubble 

This economy was built on easy money and debt. Taking away the easy money will pop the bubble and collapse the house of cards economy. In reality, this needs to happen. We need a recession to cleanse all of the misallocations and distortions out of the economy. But that would mean a lot of pain. And for all of the tough talk, I don’t think the Fed has the political will to allow the economy to crash.

Powell seems to be in complete denial about the condition of the economy. During his press conference, he painted a rosy picture completely detached from reality.

Overall spending is very strong. The consumer is in really good shape financially. They’re spending. There’s no sign of a broader slowdown that I can see in the economy. People are talking about it a lot. Consumer confidence is very low. That’s probably related to gas prices and also just stock prices, to some extent, for other people. But that’s what we’re seeing. We’re not seeing a broad slowdown. We see job growth slowing, but it’s still at quite robust levels. We see the economy slowing a bit, but still growth levels—healthy growth levels.”

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed just revised its Q2 GDP growth projection to — zero. That follows on the heels of a -1.5 GDP print in the first quarter. Powell is saying he thinks the Fed can slay inflation without pushing the economy into a recession, but the numbers tell us we’re probably already in one. And Powell calls this a “healthy” growth level.

As for consumer spending, retail sales unexpectedly declined in May, despite rapidly rising prices. For the last several months, sanguine pundits pointed to “strong” retail sales as proof the consumer remained healthy. Even then, it was clear that Americans weren’t buying more stuff.  They were simply paying more for the things they were buying. Keep in mind that retail sales aren’t inflation-adjusted. Rising prices alone can lift retail sales data. It now appears consumers are reining in spending even more.

To keep up with rising prices, American consumers are charging up their credit cards. Consumer debt hit a record level in April. Despite Powell’s claims, the consumer is not in “good shape” financially.

As Powell alluded to, the consumer isn’t nearly as confident about the economy as the central bankers over at the Fed. In fact, the average American has never been less confident about the economy – at least not in the last 50 years.

The data indicates the economy is at a tipping point. If this rate hike doesn’t push it over the edge, the next one almost certainly will.

Passant Gardant published this graph that indicates the current interest rate is very close to the maximum that the economy can handle before plunging into a recession.

As you can see, the peak of the rate hike cycle gets lower and lower with each subsequent tightening. No matter how emphatically Powell insists that the Fed can raise interest rates, slay inflation and bring us to a soft landing, reality says otherwise. There is nothing to lead us to believe that the Fed can get rates to 2% without crashing the bubble economy, much less hike them to 3.5% or 4%. (And that’s not even enough to slay inflation.)

The Fed is at a crossroads. The question is which direction will it go? Will it continue to fight inflation, despite a crashing economy? Or will it surrender and pivot back to easy money and quantitative easing, letting inflation run wild in order to rescue the economy?

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Kinross, the bad luck gold miner now faces more problems as they sell off Russian mines but at half the agreed prices

(National Post/Shekter)

Kinross Gold sells off Russian mines but at half the agreed price

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-06-15 21:41Section: Daily Dispatches

By Barbara Shecter
National Post, Toronto
Wednesday, June 15, 2022

Kinross Gold Corp. has sold all its Russian assets to the Highland Gold Mining group of companies, but the Canadian miner will realize just half the $680 million in proceeds agreed to in April, following a review by the recently formed Russian Sub-commission on the Control of Foreign Investments.

The Russian sub-commission “approved this transaction for a purchase price not exceeding $340 million,” Kinross said in a statement today.

Kinross has received $300 million in U.S. dollars in its corporate account and will receive a deferred payment of $40 million on the one-year anniversary of closing.

The $680 million previously agreed to in April was to include an initial payment of $100 million on closing, with the remaining $580 million scheduled to be received in annual payments from 2023 through to 2027. …

… For the remainder of the report:

end

(GATA) Yikes! Gold and silver market rigging gets acknowledged at PDAC

11:55p ET Wednesday, June 15, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

With the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada resuming its annual convention in Toronto this week, First Majestic Silver CEO Keith Neumeyer tells Stansberry Research’s Daniela Cambone that he sponsored a reception for silver mining executives and investors in part because he wanted them to discuss market manipulation and maybe even try to do something about it.

Neumeyer long has been the only major silver mining executive to acknowledge and protest the manipulation of the monetary metals markets.

But, amazingly, a few minutes later Cambone herself remarks that people in the mining business seem increasingly willing to acknowledge the possibility of gold and silver market manipulation.

Of course it has been only 23 years since GATA began trying to get the dunderheads and their hapless shareholders to look at the overwhelming proof that gold and silver price suppression is longstanding government policy —

— and to protest it to their governments and financial news organizations.

You’ll know that the mining industry is getting serious about defending itself and serving its shareholders when GATA at last is invited to make a presentation at a PDAC conference. That will be when PDAC figures that letting gold and silver investors know what that they are up against is more important than pumping and dumping the shares of companies whose products government is determined to devalue, and that will truly be the day.

Cambone’s discussion with Neumeyer is nine minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=uVQ631gKglY

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES //LITHIUM

END 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.7149

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7204

HANG SANG CLOSED  DOWN 462.78 PTS OR 2.13% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 105.04% OR 0.40%

3. Europe stocks  ALL CLOSED  ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  104.91/Euro FALLS TO 1.0399

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.250/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 132.79/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +1.907%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.03% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.03%…ALL BLOWING UP!!

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.33//

3j Gold at $1822.40 silver at: 21.40  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP  4/10      roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 56.66

3m oil into the 113 dollar handle for WTI and  116 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 134.49DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.98069– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0198well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.468 UP 7  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.474  UP 7 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.32

Futures Crash, Dow Down 600 As Recession Reality Sets In

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 08:25 AM

In our preview of how to trade the Fed’s 75bps rate hike, we said to expect a  “kneejerk move higher (especially if we get an outsized hike, hinting the Fed is hoping to catch up to the curve), then a gradual drift lower” (a reco which was later echoed by Goldman).  Sure enough, in the aftermath of the FOMC announcement yesterday, we got the knejerk move higher… and then overnight, the drift lower has also appeared tight on schedule, with futures tumbling in the US, undoing the entire post-FOMC move higher, and dragging global stocks lower as traders come to grips with the realization that 75bps of hikes – far from bullish – means that a recession is now on deck. As a result, S&P futures were down 2.2%, tumbling as much as 130 points from overnight session highs, while Dow futures puked a whopping 600 points as central banks lose control over markets. European stocks headed for a 16-month low and Chinese Internet shares dropped in premarket New York trading

And speaking of losing control, while normally yields would be tumbling ahead of a recession, this time they are doing the opposite with 10Y yields blowing out just shy of 3.50%, up 20 bps on the session after sliding following the biggest Fed hike in 28 years, as the bond market is starting to price in the uglier stagflation part of the coming recession, while stocks focus on the collapse in spending.

“The volatility in bond markets is definitely not over,” Jasmin Argyrou, director and portfolio manager at Credit Suisse Private Bank, said on Bloomberg Television. “The likelihood is that policy rates in the US may need to go to a more restrictive stance than even the market is pricing in.”

After the Fed raised interest rates by the most since 1994, Powell indicated a monetary stance similar to that of Paul Volcker, who broke the back of elevated inflation four decades ago but paid a price in the form of soaring unemployment and a credit squeeze. Powell’s comments signaled the Fed’s resolve to continue on an aggressive path of rate hikes, and that bond yields and equity risk premiums must rise to adjust to the new reality.

“It hasn’t taken long for the post-Fed bounce in stocks to fade, and given the gloomier outlook for growth, that is hardly surprising,” said Chris Beauchamp, the chief market analyst at IG Group in London. “We are still living in the same world we were 24 hours ago, one where growth is slowing, earnings are still falling and prices keep on rising. This is not a great environment for stocks.”

Nvidia, Tesla, Netflix, GM, Amazon, Ford, Apple and Microsoft were among the worst performers in premarket trading, as major US technology and internet stocks fell, poised to erase all or most of Wednesday’s gains. Apple -2.2%, Microsoft -2.5%, Amazon.com -2.5%, Alphabet -2.3%, Meta Platforms -2.3%, Nvidia -3.2%. Shares in Twitter rose ahead of a reported company-wide meeting between Tesla CEO Elon Musk and employees of the social media firm. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • AC Immune (ACIU) shares slump 23% after the pharma firm said that its Alzheimer’s treatment Crenezumab did not meet its primary endpoints in a study.
  • Arthur J Gallagher (AJG) is upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets, with broker citing the insurance broker’s growth, visibility and strong cash flows. Shares declined 2%.
  • AutoZone and Dollar General (DG) are upgraded to overweight from equal- weight at Morgan Stanley, while AirSculpt Technologies and Sally Beauty Holdings see downgrades, as broker shuffles ratings to favor “defensive stocks with offensive characteristics.” Shares decline 1%.
  • Cryptocurrency-related stocks resumed their slump on Thursday as a broad-based selloff in risk assets sent Bitcoin lower for a 10th straight session, its longest losing streak ever, according to data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 2010. Coinbase (COIN) shares decline 4%.
  • Electric-vehicle stocks fall in US premarket trading as worries over rising inflation and the possibility of a recession hit shares in high-growth companies, while Jefferies cut its global EV sales estimates for this year and next. Tesla falls 4% in US premarket trading, Rivian -3%, Lucid -3%, Nikola -4%
  • Twitter (TWTR) shares rise 2% in premarket trading, outperforming declines for most big tech stocks, ahead of a reported company-wide meeting between Tesla CEO Elon Musk and employees of the social media firm the billionaire agreed to buy for $44 billion in April.
  • Volta Inc. (VLTA) is downgraded to neutral from overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald, which cites recent management changes at the electricvehicle charging company. Shares decline 1.3%.
  • Chinese Internet companies NetEase Inc. and Pinduoduo Inc. slid at least 4.5% each in early New York trading. Technology shares were among the biggest losers on Thursday globally as their higher valuations relative to other sectors turned unappealing on the back of rising bond yields.

Growth stocks are likely to suffer even more in the near-term, according to Richard Carter, head of fixed income research at Quilter Cheviot.  “Investors are understandably concerned that such a sharp pace of monetary tightening will lead to a recession and markets are likely to remain volatile until we reach a peak in inflation,” he said.

In Europe, retailers and tech companies were among the biggest decliners in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, which fell 2.1% to a fresh 16-month low; the Euro Stoxx 50 slumped over 2.5%, with Germany’s DAX underperforming and losing as much as 2.8%. Losses are broad based with all Stoxx 600 sectors in the red. Retail is the standout underperformer, dropping over 4.5%; tech and chemical sectors decline over 3.5%. Chipmaker ASML Holding dropped 4.9% in Amsterdam. Here are other notable movers:

  • Online retailers drop across the board after Asos cut its forecast for full-year sales, while peer Boohoo recorded the first UK sales decline in its history. Asos shares slid as much as 30%, Boohoo -19%, Zalando -12%, AO World -7.7%
  • THG falls as much as 23% after Nick Candy walked away from making an offer, just hours after a rival consortium also dropped its pursuit.
  • Philips declines as much as 9.1% after UBS downgraded the stock to sell from hold, saying overhangs from legal issues related to the DreamStation recall will continue to weigh on shares in the foreseeable future.
  • Thule drops as much as 8.8%, taking the YTD slump in the bike rack and cargo-carrier maker’s shares to about 50%. Nordea trimmed its estimates “again.”
  • Atos slumps as much as 10% after Bryan Garnier slashed its PT for the French IT services company to a Street low of EU13 from EU24, saying the stock will look unattractive for a year.
  • European chemicals stock index drops as much as 4% amid a broad decline in markets. BASF underperforms, while beyond the index Synthomer sinks on a downgrade from Barclays. BASF shares down as much as 6.6%, Synthomer -7.9%
  • Tech stocks in Europe slide amid fears of a more likely recession, with the Federal Reserve committed to bring down raging inflation. ASML shares slide as much as 5.1%, Infineon -5.2%, Just Eat -6.3%, Deliveroo -5.6%
  • Euronext climbs as much as 4.2% after the stock-market operator was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan due to “increasingly” attractive valuation and improving earnings momentum.
  • Inchcape jumps as much as 6.5% after the automotive distributor published a trading statement, which Peel Hunt said was “positive.”

In the UK, the Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points, a smaller move than what most global central banks are delivering. That affirmed policymakers’ worries over the potential for recession, sending the pound tumbling as much as 1% against the dollar.

Earlier in the session,  Asian stocks were mostly positive and followed suit to the gains on Wall Street. ASX 200 traded higher but with gains capped as participants reflected on the latest data releases including a mixed jobs report and a further rise in consumer inflation expectations. Nikkei 225 shrugged off mixed trade data as Japan seeks to raise the minimum hourly wage above JPY 1000 and is also looking to implement steps to increase tourist demand next month. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were choppy with COVID-related concerns stoked by an increase in cases in Hong Kong and with Shanghai to conduct weekly community COVID testing across all districts until end-July, while property names lagged after Chinese house prices contracted Y/Y.

Japanese stocks climbed amid relief over the Federal Reserve’s plan for interest rate hikes as investors awaited a decision from the Bank of Japan due Friday. The Topix rose 0.6% to close at 1,867.81, while the Nikkei advanced 0.4% to 26,431.20. The yen resumed weakening against the dollar. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 2.9%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,414 rose and 657 fell, while 99 were unchanged.

“Relief that the FOMC rate hike passed without a hitch, mostly within market expectations, is pushing Japanese stocks higher,” said Shogo Maekawa, a strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, who will not be happy when he sees today’s action. “The focus from here in the market will be on how far inflation can be contained by the FOMC before the US economy slows, but the outlook still remains uncertain.”

In Australia, rhe S&P/ASX 200 index swung to a loss of 0.2% to close at 6,591.10, weighed by declines in banks and healthcare shares.  Seven of the 11 subgauges ended lower, while mining stocks rebounded to end a four-day losing streak.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.1% to 10,646.58

India’s key stock indexes plunged to their lowest level in over a year on concerns aggressive interest rate hikes by global central banks will begin to hurt demand amid higher cost pressures on companies. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 2% to 51,495.79 in Mumbai, after rising as much as 1.1% earlier in the session. The NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 2.1%. Both measure have dropped nearly 17% from their October peaks. Reliance Industries Ltd. fell 1.4% to its lowest level in nearly a month. It was the biggest drag on the Sensex which saw all but one of its 30-member stocks trading lower. All 19 sectoral indexes compiled by BSE Ltd., fell, led by a measure of metal companies. “Analysts are already prepping for earnings downgrades as central banks around the world step up with large rate hikes to keep inflation tethered,” said Abhay Agarwal, a fund manager at Piper Serica Advisors. The US Federal Reserve raised rates 75 basis points Wednesday, in line with the most recent projection of economists, stepping up its fight against inflation. In India, consumer-price inflation is above the central bank’s target, while input costs continue to rise for manufacturers. “A double whammy of higher costs and lower demand due to rate hikes would mean lower margins for companies,” Agarwal said

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as the greenback strengthened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen and the Swiss franc. European currencies were the worst performers, with Sweden’s krona slumping to a three-month low against the euro. The Swiss franc advanced by as much as 1.7% against the dollar and 2.1% versus the euro after SNB’s announcement. SNB President Thomas Jordan said the central bank would be prepared to purchase foreign currency if there were to be an excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc and also consider selling foreign currency if the Swiss franc were to weaken. The euro traded around $1.04 after earlier touching a day low of 1.0381. German bonds and euro-area peers tumbled led by the belly of the curve and money markets cranked up ECB rate hike bets on the back of the SNB’s move. Treasuries also slid while UK bonds erased gains and sterling fell against the dollar and the euro ahead of the BOE monetary policy announcement. Cable one-day volatility hit its highest level since 2020 Wednesday, rising toward the 30 vols handle.

In rates, Treasuries tumbled to fresh lows, with yields cheaper by 10bp to 15bp across the curve while post-Fed rally in stocks also fades. US 10-year yields around 3.435%, cheaper by 14bp on the day with bunds lagging by 3bp on the sector and gilts outperforming by 7bp; in Treasuries, front- and belly led declines flattens 2s10s, 5s30s spreads. Losses led by front-end of the curve as another 75bp rate hike gets priced back in for the July meeting. Gilt extended losses after Bank of England raised benchmark rate to 1.25% in a 6-3 vote.  Fed-dated swaps price in 75bp of rate hikes for the July meeting and an additional 280bp of hikes by the end of the year. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far; Thursday’s activity may include some corporate issuers offering short-duration bonds.

In commodities, crude oil fell as traders weighed the outlook for supply and demand amid Fed tightening and rising US crude output. Crude futures declined with WTI hitting lows for the week near $114.50. Spot gold is little changed at $1,830/oz. Base metals are mixed; LME aluminum falls 1.1% while LME lead gains 0.4%. Bitcoin dropped and traded closer to $21,000 apiece.

Looking at the day ahead now, and one of the highlights will be the aforementioned BoE decision. In addition, there’s an array of ECB speakers including Vice President de Guindos, along with the ECB’s Visco, Villeroy, Panetta, Vasle, Knot, Centeno, De Cos and Makhlouf. Data releases include US housing starts and building permits for May, the weekly initial jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook survey for June.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 1.8% to 3,721.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.4% to 407.43
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 158.95
  • MXAPJ down 0.9% to 524.81
  • Nikkei up 0.4% to 26,431.20
  • Topix up 0.6% to 1,867.81
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.2% to 20,845.43
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,285.39
  • Sensex down 1.5% to 51,771.21
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 6,591.10
  • Kospi up 0.2% to 2,451.41
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.75%
  • Euro down 0.6% to $1.0385
  • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $118.97/bbl
  • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $118.97/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,832.27
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.14% to 105.31

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The Swiss National Bank unexpectedly increased interest rates for the first time since 2007, shifting away from a battle to tame a stronger currency to focus on inflation that threatens to get out of hand
  • The ECB will raise interest rates from historic lows in a gradual and sustained fashion to bring inflation back to the 2% target, according to Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau
  • Investors shouldn’t question the ECB’s resolve to undue prevent panic on government bond markets as interest rise from record lows, according to Vice President Luis de Guindos
  • European authorities will announce that Greece is on track to exit its enhanced surveillance status in August in a statement later Thursday, Greek Finance Minister Christos Staikouras says in an interview with state-run radio Proto Programma
  • Banque Pictet & Cie is expanding the scope of financial derivatives that it trades on behalf of clients, in a move that underscores how wealth managers are seeking new ways to protect assets against global shocks
  • The first batch of a Chinese offshore yuan sovereign bond sale saw the strongest demand in nearly two years, defying a recent stream of outflows at a time when the global debt market is showing deepening levels of stress
  • Hungary unexpectedly hiked the country’s key interest rate after the forint fell to a record this week
  • Taiwan’s central bank raised the discount rate to banks by 0.125 percentage points to 1.5%, less than the estimate 1.625%

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were mostly positive and followed suit to the gains on Wall Street in the aftermath of the FOMC meeting where the Fed hiked rates by 75bps and lifted its Fed funds rate projections, while markets found relief from Fed Chair Powell’s press conference as he does not expect 75bp moves to be common and kept the door open for either a 50bps or 75bps hike in July. ASX 200 traded higher but with gains capped as participants reflected on the latest data releases including a mixed jobs report and a further rise in consumer inflation expectations. Nikkei 225 shrugged off mixed trade data as Japan seeks to raise the minimum hourly wage above JPY 1000 and is also looking to implement steps to increase tourist demand next month. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were choppy with COVID-related concerns stoked by an increase in cases in Hong Kong and with Shanghai to conduct weekly community COVID testing across all districts until end-July, while property names lagged after Chinese house prices contracted Y/Y.

Top Asian News

  • HKMA raised its base rate by 75bps to 2.00%, as expected, following the earlier Fed rate hike.
  • China’s NDRC said it will ensure reasonable economic growth in Q2 to provide a firm foundation for H2 and will expand the scope of use of funds raised by local government special bonds to include high-tech infrastructure for the first time, according to Reuters.
  • White House official said US President Biden will keep his mind open regarding relaxing tariffs on Chinese goods, according to Reuters.
  • China is to continue expanding high-level opening up, according to MOFCOM’s Shu and is confident foreign trade will be in a reasonable range.
  • Hong Kong reports 1085 (prev. 1047) new COVID cases.

European bourses and US futures are hampered following a surprise SNB hike, Euro Stoxx 50 -2.4%; an announcement that exacerbated the modest pressure seen at the European cash open, in-spite of initial modest upside in the regions futures. Stateside, losses are relatively broad-based though the NQ -2.5%, lags its peers modestly given the pronounced upside in yields.
Tesla (TSLA) has raised US prices for all vehicles, according to its website, confirming an earlier report in Electrek; by as much as USD 6k. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has temporarily reduced procurement amid inventory pressure, Nikkei reports; has asked component makers and others to delay shipments. Toyota (7203 JT) is to suspend some domestic plant operations from June 17th; remains difficult to look ahead given the shortage of semis. Global production plan for June to be revised to ~750k units.

Top European News

  • Villeroy Backs Gradual, Sustained Rate Hikes: ECB Update
  • Ferrari Unveils Spending Push to Speed Up Electric Shift
  • CEZ Says It Covered Gap in Gazprom Supplies From Other Sources
  • Pictet Widens Derivatives Bets to Hedge Against Turmoil
  • Air France CEO Says Business Travel Is Returning This Summer
  • Putin’s Economic Team Puts on a Brave Face at Shrunken Forum

FX

  • Franc soars as SNB strikes with half point hike to prevent further rise in inflation and spread to Swiss goods and services. Bank also removes highly valued tag even as USD/CHF tanks from high 0.9900s to sub-0.9800 and EUR/CHF probes 1.0200 vs 1.0400+.
  • Yen rebounds strongly as risk sentiment sours significantly on the eve of BoJ; USD/JPY through 132.50 compared to 134.65+ peak and a Fib retracement (133.42) along the way.
  • Dollar revival from post-FOMC lows derailed irrespective of deteriorating market tone and 75 bp rate rise, DXY back down around 105.000 within a 105.500-104.700 range.
  • Pound precarious pre-BoE on premise that MPC will stick to steady 25bp policy normalisation steps; Cable choppy either side of 1.2100 and EUR/GBP pivoting 0.8600.
  • Kiwi undermined by negative NZ Q1 GDP print and Aussie labours even though jobs data was largely better than expected; NZD/USD under 0.6300 and AUD/USD below 0.7000.
  • Brazilian Central Bank raised the Selic rate by 50bps to 13.25%, as expected, through a unanimous decision and it left the door open for further monetary tightening, while it sees another rate increase of equal or lesser magnitude at the next meeting.
  • Russian First Deputy PM said Rouble is overvalued and industry would be more comfortable if it fell between 70-80 against the Dollar, while Russian Y/Y inflation will be around 15% in December 2022, according to TASS.

Fixed Income

  • Bonds collapse as SNB unexpectedly strikes against inflation with a 50bp rate hike
  • Bunds recoil from 145.00+ to sub-142.00 at worst as ECB tightening expectations rise and BTPs reverse gains made on anti-fragmentation efforts between 119.20-116.01 parameters
  • Gilts caught in the cross-fire ahead of BoE and down below 112.00 vs 113.12 at one stage even though MPC is seen maintaining 25 bp pace
  • US Treasuries revert to bear-flattening after dovish reaction to FOMC overall and await housing data, jobless claims and Philly Fed

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks are hampered in-fitting with the global tone as markets digest the shock 50bp hike from the SNB.
  • Currently, WTI and Brent are lower by just shy of USD 1.00/bbl and holding just above yesterday’s troughs.
  • US Department of Energy requested to meet with refiners regarding prices no later than June 21st, according to Reuters sources.
  • US reportedly fears the EU and UK ban on insuring Russian oil tankers could result in surging crude prices and urges European capitals to seek ways to ease the impact of their ban on insuring Russian oil cargoes, according to FT.
  • Ukraine’s energy minister said gas production could fall to 16-17 BCM in 2022 from around 20 BCM in 2021, according to Reuters.
  • Russian Deputy PM Novak says Russian can raise oil output in July; Russian oil production is restoring as oil flows are redirected.
  • OPEC+ document shows Russian oil output at 9.27mln BPD in May, according to Reuters; OPEC+ was producing 2.695mln BPD beneath its targets in May, document says.
  • China will set up a centralised iron ore buyer to counter the dominance of Australia as it hopes bulk buying will secure lower prices, according to FT.
  • Spot gold is relatively contained in a sub-USD 10/oz range in-spite of the pronounced price action in the USD and Fixed Income spaces; with any upside for the metal capped again by a cluster of DMAs between USD 1840-46/oz.

Central banks

  • Swiss SNB Policy Rate (Q2) -0.25% vs. Exp. -0.75% (Prev. -0.75%); cannot rule out further rate increases. Inflation Forecasts: 2022 2.8% (prev. 2.1%), 2023 1.9% (prev. 0.9%), 2024 1.6% (prev. 0.9%). Exemption Threshold: 28x (prev. 30x). Click here for newsquawk analysis and reaction.
  • SNB’s Jordan: tighter monetary policy is aimed at preventing inflation from spreading more broadly to goods and services in Switzerland; CHF is no longer highly valued.
  • BoJ fixed rate bond buying operation receives take-up of JPY 733bln.
  • ECB’s Visco says price rises are being mostly driven by energy and gas, not being driven by higher demand.
  • ECB’s de Guindos says inflation expectations are “quite anchored”.
  • NBH hikes one-week deposit rate to 7.25% (prev. 6.75%) at the weekly tender.
  • CBR’s Nabiullina says there will not be a ban on USD and foreign currency accounts within Russia; FY economic contraction will be smaller than thought in April, are in discussions with many nations on settlements in national currencies. Do not currently have the technical ability to purchase EUR or USD.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: May Building Permits MoM, est. -2.5%, prior -3.2%, revised -3.0%
  • 08:30: May Housing Starts MoM, est. -1.8%, prior -0.2%
  • 08:30: June Continuing Claims, est. 1.3m, prior 1.31m
  • 08:30: May Building Permits, est. 1.78m, prior 1.82m, revised 1.82m
  • 08:30: May Housing Starts, est. 1.69m, prior 1.72m
  • 08:30: June Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 5.0, prior 2.6
  • 08:30: June Initial Jobless Claims, est. 216,000, prior 229,000

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

There is an assembly for grandparents at school today and as our kids don’t have any anymore we as parents are invited instead. However I turned it down as I can’t face the prospect of going and finding some grandparents younger than me. However given I started in banking in 1995, at least until yesterday I was young enough to have never worked in a 75bps Fed hike world. That changed overnight though as the Fed met their leaked, 48-hour earlier, forward guidance and did their first 75bps move since 1994.

Our economists have reviewed the meeting here but let’s go through the highlights. The one thing we should all learn to ignore is forward guidance. However the key market reaction to the meeting was a big rally in rates, especially at the front end, and a decent rebound in equities, as Powell suggested 50bps in July was still possible just as the market had fully priced 75bps. So forward guidance is dead, long live forward guidance. A key phrase was that “I don’t expect these moves to be common”. This seemed to have a big impact. More later on this but let’s review chronologically.

Before the press conference, the statement and dots were more or less in line with what the market came to price ahead of the meeting. But the Fed is now painting a central scenario that is getting much closer to a hard landing, with unemployment getting revised as high as 4.1% by year-end 2024 – a number I’d expect to rise more as they try to tame inflation. PCE inflation was revised almost a full percentage point higher for this year, to 5.2%, with end-2023 inflation hitting 2.6%.

In the press conference, the Chair again emphasised the Fed’s commitment to bringing down inflation, and admitted the path to doing so whilst engineering a soft landing was getting more and more difficult. Indeed, the statement notably omitted the line: “With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong”, which the Chair explained by asserting that monetary policy alone would not be able to engineer a soft landing. Unemployment looks like it will need to rise in order to slow demand. Powell suggested it would also need help from a supply-side expansion, citing shocks such as the war, runaway oil prices, and supply chains sensitive to China’s Covid lockdowns. Without this, the landing would be hard, it was inferred. A theme he referred to time and again in the presser.

Another key focus of the press conference was the appropriate pace of rate hikes going forward. The Chair explained the Committee broke from its overwhelming communications for a 50bp hike in reaction to the CPI and University of Michigan inflation expectations that surprised to the upside and accelerated further during the blackout period. The path for rate hikes will be dependent on the month-over-month path for inflation, effectively making every inflation data release a ‘live’ event over the near-term. On appropriate hike sizes, markets cheered the fact the Chair said 75bp hikes are not normal and didn’t expect them to become commonplace (as discussed at the top), and that the July hike was in all likelihood between 50bp or 75bp. Later however, the Chair did not explicitly rule out hikes larger than 75bps. So it was forward guidance of sorts but highly uncertain.

This morning, Fed funds futures are pricing in 66bps of tightening in July, versus pricing 74bps at the close Tuesday. One wonders what would have happened if the answer not ruling out hikes larger than 75bps came earlier. Nevertheless, Treasury yields reversed some of the recent selloff, with 2yr yields falling -23.6bps (the most since October 2008) and 10yr yields down -18.9bps (the most since March 2020). Notably, 10yr breakevens were only +2.3bps higher despite the pricing out of tightening. And this morning there’s only been a modest reversal, with 10yr yields up +3.6bps to 3.32%. Risk assets were supported and the S&P 500 climbed +1.46%, almost all of which came during the press conference, with interest rate sensitive sectors leading the way. In line with that, the NASDAQ (+2.50%) and FANG+ (+3.66%) outperformed. It’s worth remembering it was not so long ago that the Chair ruled out completely 75bps for this meeting, so what may look like the modal path for rate policy today could change very quickly.

Whilst the Fed provided the main headlines yesterday, there was also an enormous rally in European sovereign bonds after the ECB Governing Council held an ad hoc meeting where they reiterated their pledge to act against fragmentation risks. Our European economists put out a piece summarising the announcement and implications herebut we’ll run through the takeaways.In their statement, they said that they “will apply flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio”, and that they would also “accelerate the completion of the design of a new anti-fragmentation instrument” for their consideration. So although we didn’t get a formal tool announced, it’s clear that this is on the ECB’s mind, and has helped reassure investors whose concern has grown about Europe’s debt sustainability over recent days. Around the US close, Reuters reported that the planned anti-fragmentation measures were not likely to come with burdensome conditionality, which should support the periphery. Our European economics team noted that with the anti-fragmentation tool coming earlier than expected, the ECB can embark on an even faster rate hike cycle, which prompted our team to add a third +50bp hike this December to their call.

With that in mind, peripheral debt led the moves lower in yields yesterday, with those on 10yr Italian (-36.4bps) and Greek (-45.5bps) debt seeing astonishing declines on the day. Spain (-23.0bps) and Portugal (-25.6bps) followed with what were still outsized moves by normal standards, whilst bunds saw one of the more subdued performances as yields “only” came down by -11.1bps. Indeed, the decline in the spread of 10yr Italian yields over bunds was the largest in a single day in over two years. That performance was mirrored on the equity side too, with Italy’s FTSE MIB (+2.87%) outperforming the broader STOXX 600 (+1.42%) as it snapped a run of 6 consecutive daily declines.

The euro itself initially strengthened in reaction to that ECB meeting happening, before falling around the statement, and then re-strengthened to +0.36% versus the dollar following the FOMC. Separately Bitcoin fell -1.48% in its 9th consecutive decline, having been nearly -9% lower earlier in the day and hitting an intraday low of $20,081, before rebounding along with risk after the FOMC to close at $21,640, and this morning it’s advanced further to reach $22,244.

Another significant story in Europe came on the energy side yesterday, with natural gas futures up by +24.00% (on top of the 16.35% rise on Tuesday) after Russia further squeezed gas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream pipeline, with a cap in supplies to 67m cubic metres per day. That leaves futures at €120.33/MWh, which is the most they’ve been since late-March and represents a further piece of unwelcome news for policymakers trying to deal with inflation.

Those moves higher in equities have been echoed overnight in Asian markets, with investors focusing on Chair Powell’s comment that he did not “expect moves of this size to be common.” In terms of the moves, the Nikkei (+1.41%) has advanced thanks to a rally in auto and tech stocks whilst the Kospi (+1.46%), Shanghai Composite (+0.25%) and CSI (+0.32%) have also moved higher. The only exception is the Hang Seng (-0.40%), which has reversed its initial gains following the open. DM equity futures are pointing higher as well, although similarly we’ve seen a decline over the last couple of hours whereby S&P futures have gone from being up +1.05% to just +0.32% at time of writing. Oil prices have rebounded this morning too, with Brent futures +0.49% up at $119.09/bbl, after falling to its lowest closing level in nearly two weeks.

Looking forward, central bankers will stay in the spotlight today since we’ll get the Bank of England’s latest decision at midday in London. Like the Fed and the ECB, they’re facing similar inflationary pressures with UK CPI rising to a multi-decade high of +9.0% in April, and our economist expects they’ll continue their campaign of rate hikes with a further 25bp move, which would take Bank Rate up to a post-GFC high of 1.25%. Market pricing is between a 25bp move and a larger hike, with overnight index swaps placing a 43% chance that we’ll get a 50bp move instead. Indeed, last time 3 of the 9 members on the committee wanted 50bps rather than 25bps, so it’ll be interesting to see what the vote breakdown looks like.

On the data side, yesterday’s main release came from the US retail sales for May, where the headline number unexpectedly contracted -0.3% (vs. +0.1% expected), and the previous month’s expansion was also revised down two-tenths to +0.7%. That’s the first monthly contraction so far this year as well. Elsewhere in the US, the NAHB’s housing market index for June fell to a 2-year low of 67 as expected. Otherwise, the Euro Area saw industrial production grow by +0.4% in April (vs. +0.5% expected).

To the day ahead now, and one of the highlights will be the aforementioned BoE decision. In addition, there’s an array of ECB speakers including Vice President de Guindos, along with the ECB’s Visco, Villeroy, Panetta, Vasle, Knot, Centeno, De Cos and Makhlouf. Data releases include US housing starts and building permits for May, the weekly initial jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook survey for June.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY NIGHT 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.02 PTS OR 0.61%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 462.78 PTS OR 2.13%    /The Nikkei closed UP 105.04 OR 0.40%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.03%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.7149    /Oil DOWN TO 113.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 116.23 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7149 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7204: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER/

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B  JAPAN

Today bond yields in Japan broke wide open with its yield rising from .25 to .347 as the dam broke

This should cause massive losses on bond yields by insurers and investors

Reynolds/Bloomberg

Bond Meltdown’s Next Driver Is BOJ Policy Implosion

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 01:25 PM

By Garfield Reynolds, Bloomberg Markets Live Commentator and Reporter

The pace of this week’s Treasuries rout – and post-FOMC relief – has focused most eyes squarely on US markets, but the real action going forward is just as likely to be in Tokyo. The Bank of Japan’s massive debt purchases to cap yields may have already passed their use-by date, and that threatens to unleash fresh storms on global bond markets that are about as stressed as they have ever been.

While the Fed’s 75-basis-point hike came with mild-enough forward guidance to soothe panicked markets, the BOJ still faces pressure from a widening policy gap to at least acknowledge it’s time to tweak its own settings when it concludes its own meeting on Friday.

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is nothing if not determined, and he has been sticking to his line that the recent pickup in Japanese inflation will be transitory — a word that has fallen out of favor with his peers — meaning that he considers it premature to adjust the world’s loosest policy.

The central bank is doubling and tripling down on buying up ever-greater chunks of what is left of the Japanese bond market to cap 10-year yields at 0.25% and maintain curve control. This week has seen cries that this can’t go on for much longer reach a crescendo.

The yen tumbled through 135 per dollar this week to a 24-year low, which adds to the stickiness for inflation as well as taking the currency down so far that the real-world impacts counteract much of the benefits of easier policy, including by crippling consumer confidence.

The currency’s plunge also spreads turmoil because it means Japan’s deep- pocketed investors — long a key player in Treasuries and other major developed bond markets — need to hedge investments abroad at a time when BOJ-Fed policy divergence is so stark that 10- year US yields are actually negative for yen-based investors.

Expect to see the unexpected “buyers’ strike” from Japanese investors — the largest foreign holders of Treasuries — to go on, exacerbating the unprecedented rout in US sovereign securities and other notes.

As for Japan’s bond market, foreigners are fleeing, except for a few managers willing to take on the BOJ in a classic widow-maker trade and short JGBs. Liquidity deteriorated to the worst since Kuroda took office in March 2013, and JGB futures recently tanked by the most since that year.Source: Zero Hedge

There may be no good choices left for Japan’s central bank. If it sticks to its guns it risks further yen declines, adding to rampant dollar strength that is a key pain point for numerous currencies, markets and economies worldwide. The BOJ would also likely end up holding more than half of all JGBs to make dysfunction the norm in one of the developed world’s second- largest bond markets.

But a shift away from curve control would bring its own dangers by turning JGBs from an island of stable returns into yet another bond meltdown. That would be especially cruel for private holders of the debt after curve control saw JGBs miss out on the massive gains Treasuries experienced amid pandemic stimulus.

Japan’s insurers hold about 20% of the country’s 1.2 quadrillion yen ($9 trillion) government bond market, so the potential for severe value-at-risk shocks is massive — this in a market that still shudders at the memories of the 2003 VaR meltdown.

The last thing bruised global markets need is for some of the managers holding Japan’s $1.2 trillion of Treasuries to need to liquidate some of their assets to cover losses.

3c CHINA

CHINA/

Severe lockdowns in Shanghai has causes a major decline in China’s refining output

(Paraskova/OilPrice.com)

Lockdowns Lead To Major Decline In China’s Refining Output

WEDNESDAY, JUN 15, 2022 – 09:00 PM

By Tsvetana Paraskova of Oilprice.com

Strict lockdowns in Shanghai and the resulting depressed fuel demand led in May to the largest annual decline in Chinese refinery production in at least the past decade, official data cited by Reuters showed on Wednesday.

Last month, Chinese refiners processed around 12.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, down by 10.9 percent compared to May 2021, according to data from the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics. Refinery throughput was marginally higher compared to the April processing rate of 12.61 million bpd, but the April refinery output was also low by Chinese standards.   

Weak fuel demand amid strict lockdowns with China’s “zero COVID” policy was behind the largest annual plunge in at least a decade in May.

Refining operations started to recover at the end of last month, when China announced a gradual easing of the lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing. However, flare-ups since early June have prompted authorities to impose fresh curbs on mobility, in a sign that China’s oil demand recovery will not be smooth.

A new “explosive” outbreak in a Beijing district is threatening the demand growth recovery again this week.

Last week, a return to lockdowns in Shanghai weighed on oil prices, suggesting it may be a while yet before the Chinese economy returns to normal. On the flip side, news that China’s oil imports in May were 12 percent higher than a year earlier could potentially lend support to prices, although they may not be indicative of an actual demand increase.

“The easing of Covid-related restrictions in China should have provided a further boost to sentiment in the market. However, a flare-up of cases in Beijing and Shanghai more recently has seen authorities tighten restrictions once again. China’s covid zero policy remains a downside risk for the market,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao wrote on Tuesday.

end

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

UK/RATE DECISION

The pound is slammed after the B.O.E. hiked by only 25% falling behind the USA.  They also dropped guidance fo future rate hikes.  England’s official inflation rate is 10%

(zerohedge)

Pound Tumbles After Bank of England Hikes 25bps In Split Decision, Drops Guidance Of Future Rate Hikes

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 07:27 AM

Moments ago the Bank of England hiked rates for the 5th straight time, raising interest rates by 25bps to 1.25% in a split 6-3 decision, with 3 members – Haskell, Mann and Saunders – calling for an even bigger, 50bps hike saying faster policy tightening now would help to bring inflation back to the target sustainably in the medium term and reduce the risks of a more extended and costly tightening cycle later. Ahead of the announcement, 34bps of tightening was priced in, so the move comes roughly in line with expectations. The BOE also dropped guidance around a future rate hike – it had previously stated that “some degree of future tightening in monetary policy may still be appropriate – which was viewed by the market as dovish and hammered cable.

Policy makers led by BOE governor Governor Andrew Bailey sent their strongest signal yet that they are prepared to unleash larger moves if needed to tame inflation, hinting that they may join a growing global trend for larger hikes if inflation continues to soar, saying “it would be particularly alert to indications of more persistent inflationary pressures, and would if necessary act forcefully in response.”

Unlike May, that language was endorsed by all the BOE’s voters, a departure from last month when two declined to sign up to guidance that more hikes were needed.

The bank also raised its forecast for the peak of inflation this year to “slightly above” 11%, reflecting the planned increase in the energy price cap in October, and said it now expects the economy to contract in the current quarter.

Some more details from the statement:

INFLATION:

  • CPI inflation had been expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 04
  • Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate at that time and the MPC’s forecasting convention for future energy prices. CPI inflation had been projected to fall to a little above the 2% target in two years time, largely reflecting the waning influence of external factors and to be well below the target in three years, mainly reflecting weaker domestic pressures
  • The risks to the inflation projection had been judged to be skewed to the upside at these points.

GROWTH:

  • There has been relatively little news in global and domestic economic data since the May Report, although there have been significant movements in financial markets.
  • UK-weighted global growth in 2022 Q2 appears to be broadly in line with expectations.
  • Bank staff now expect GDP to fall by 0.3% in the second quarter as a whole weaker than anticipated at the time of the May Report
  • Consumer confidence has fallen further, but other indicators of household spending appear to have held up.
  • Some indicators of business sentiment have weakened, although they have so far remained more resilient than indicators of consumer confidence and consistent with positive underlying GDP growth

As Bloomberg notes, for now the BOE, which was first major central bank to hike rates after the pandemic, is moving slower than some of its peers.  The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday, the biggest increase since 1994. The Swiss National Bank also surprisingly hiked rates by 50 basis points earlier Thursday.

But while the BOE is grappling with an inflation rate that has already hit a four-decade high of 9%, officials are also concerned about an economic slowdown that is putting the UK at risk of recession.

Data this week showed the economy contracted in April, and officials now predict it will shrink 0.3% in the second quarter, after previously expecting a 0.1% expansion. The longer-term outlook is also grim, with the OECD saying this month that it sees no growth in the UK next year — the worst outlook among major nations.

Indeed, anticipating that stagflation is imminent, those BOE members backing a 25-basis-point move this month – including Bailey – said demand might be starting to slow. But, with prices soaring and officials seeing no signs of deterioration in the ultra-tight labor market, Michael Saunders, Catherine Mann and Jonathan Haskel all voted for a half-point increase.

Those members saw more prospect of a surprising resilience in demand or shortfall in supply. The minutes of the meeting said there were “mixed signs” on the extent to which the living standards squeeze was weighing on consumer spending. Confidence has dropped but “indicators had held up.”

Either way, the trend for higher rates is clear, threatening to heap more pain on an already creaking UK economy that is dealing with surging tax, fuel and food bills, along with political turmoil and the messy repercussions of Brexit. Adding to the misery, next week railway workers are due to hold a three days of strikes, which economists say will cost the nation almost £100 million.

The decision is also the first since Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunakannounced a multi-billion-pound aid program to help households cope with soaring energy bills, allaying some concerns of the depth of the nation’s cost of living crisis.

The BOE estimated that package will raise the level of output by around 0.3%, and inflation by 0.1 percentage point, in the next 12 months “with some upside risks around these estimates.”

In response to the hike which was seen as in line to expectations, but lower than needed, cable slumped…

… with FX strategist Viraj Patel summarizing it best, saying the outcome was “Lose-lose for GBP. BoE sees growth as a risk… so they didn’t hike bigger this time. And if they have to hike bigger in the future, it’s because inflation is sticky & bigger hikes bring forward UK recession risks. UK is the archetypal stagflation trade.”

Meanwhile, gilts also slumped with 30Y yields surging 10bps at 2.74%, perhaps on fears that the BOE’s hiking cycle may be coming to an end, and the central bank has capitulated to rising inflation.

END

EU fragmentation eases as details of the ECB bailout plan leak out

(zerohedge)

EU ‘Fragmentation’ Eases As Details Of ECB Bailout Plan Leak

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 09:20 AM

While the Fed seemingly felt confident enough to aggressively hike rates this week, the ECB was forced to make defensive and vague promises about saving “fragmenting” Euro bond markets.

ECB President Lagarde dropped a hint of having some ‘tools’, then yesterday’s “Emergency Meeting” confirmed the central bank was in panic mode as it jawboned promises of doing ‘whatever it takes’ again to rescue peripheral bond spreads from blowing out.

Perhaps it was the risk of ‘Italeave’ that triggered the bureaucrats into action…

And this morning more details are coming out about exactly what the anti-fragmentation tool will look like.

Bloomberg reports that, according to people familiar with the matter, bond-buying under any new anti-crisis tool from the European Central Bank would probably involve selling other securities so purchases don’t upset efforts to curb record inflation.

Yesterday’s emergency meeting of the ECB’s Governing Council sped up work on the new instrument after a selloff in Italian government debt stirred memories of Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis. While the renewed push to tackle so-called fragmentation calmed markets somewhat, it’s fueled expectations of a concrete announcement in the coming weeks.

The ECB also reiterated that it will use reinvestments of maturing debt from its pandemic-era asset-purchase program, known as PEPP, more flexibly.

For now, the jawboning alone – as usual – has improved the situation as European peripheral sovereign spreads have compressed notably…

However, while at first glance ithe new anti-frag tool looks like it may be a re-hash of the Securities Markets Program of more than a decade ago, Bloomberg’s Lorcan Roche Kelly notes that the difference between selling assets to offset purchases rather than running outright sterilization operations like we saw under the SMP is key.

The implication of selling some assets to buy others is that core nations may see added weakness when peripheral buying is needed. This means that the ECB could actually be closing spreads both from the bottom up (selling core) and the top down (buying periphery).

Days like today where German yields blow out while moves in Italy remain muted could become a more common sight.

Of course, the idea of The ECB hard at work fighting inflation on one hand while buying peripheral bonds to compress spreads on the other is being accepted as totally normal by many market participants as The ECB’s unquestionable omniscience continues…

How long governing council members from those nations will put up with this is anyone’s guess?

END

EU/NATURAL GAS

Natural gas in Europe soars 70% in one amid with Freeport delays and Russian cuts

(zerohedge)

European NatGas Soars 70% In Week Amid Freeport Delays And Russian Cuts  

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 10:26 AM

A combination of factors this week and last have put a massive squeeze on crucial natural gas flows to Europe, sending prices sky-high. 

Dutch front-month NatGas futures, the European benchmark, jumped as much as 24% Thursday morning, adding to the 46% increase this week and last. Flow reductions began last Wednesday when an explosion rocked the Freeport LNG Terminal in Quintana, Texas. Most LNG exports from that facility end up in Europe as the continent weens off Russian supplies. 

Rapid shifts in the supply dynamic have sent US NatGas prices tumbling (though rising Thursday morning) while EU NatGas soars. 

This was followed by news Tuesday that state-controlled Russian energy giant Gazprom said flows to Europe were restricted after Canadian sanctions over the war in Ukraine prevented German partner Siemens Energy from delivering a gas turbine that powers a compressor station on the pipeline that was recently overhauled. 

Then on Wednesday, Russian NatGas deliveries through Nord Stream to Europe dropped and are expected to decline by around 40% this year. 

Prospects of Europe running out of Russian NatGas are increasing as flow reductions have been reported by companies including Eni SpA, Engie SA, and Uniper SE. Germany calls the reductions through Nord Stream “politically motivated” by Moscow.  

Utility Uniper said Wednesday it had received 25% less than contracted from Russia, while Austria’s OMV AG and France’s Engie also got lower volumes. Italy’s Eni said Gazprom was providing only 65% of the requested amount on Thursday. -Bloomberg

What’s exacerbated the energy crisis in Europe is the attempt to ween itself off Russian fossil fuels and monetary tightening by the central bank, sparking what could be signs of stagflation. 

The Kremlin released a statement Thursday, indicating the recent cuts through Nord Stream were “not deliberate.”

Hungary has been the latest country to break ranks with the EU to accept Moscow’s demand to pay in rubles for NatGas. However, Poland, Bulgaria, and Finland have rejected such a scheme which forced Moscow to halt shipments to those countries.

Russia tightened its grip on European energy markets. It forced the German energy regulator to advise customers this week to reduce consumption so that storage sites could be refilled before summer officially starts. 

Between Russian supply cuts and Western sanctions on Russia preventing key equipment from being installed on Nord Stream, total cuts through the pipeline have been about 60% to 65 million cubic meters a day. Factor in the prospect of LNG import disruptions from US’ Freeport, and the supply outlook in the EU becomes more bearish as gas demand for cooling soars with summer just days away, which means delays in filling inventories could be lead to a harsh European winter. 

“Gas prices will continue in the winter to be very high,” Marco Alvera, former chief executive officer of Italian network operator Snam SpA said at a conference on Thursday.

“Winter gas prices will be high, winter power prices will be high.”

BCS Global Markets NatGas senior analyst Ron Smith said further disruptions to LNG flows to Europe, such as another Freeport incident, could send EU NatGas prices up “another 50%.” 

UK/EU

UK business leaders are urging BoJo to pull back from damaging trade war with the nutty EU.  The rift is over England’s new bill on Northern Ireland.

(Zhang/EpochTimes)

UK Business Leaders Urge PM To Pull Back From “Damaging Trade War” With EU

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Alexander Zhang via The Epoch Times,

British business leaders have urged Prime Minister Boris Johnson not to enter a “damaging trade war” with the E.U. after the government set out its plans to scrap parts of the UK-E.U. agreement governing post-Brexit trade arrangements in Northern Ireland.

The Foreign Office said on Monday that the new legislation is intended to “fix parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol – making the changes necessary to restore stability and ensure the delicate balance of the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement is protected.”

But the E.U. has criticised the UK’s actions for undermining trust between the two sides and violating international law. European Commission vice-president Maros Sefcovic said the E.U. viewed the UK’s actions with “significant concern” and that it would look at launching further legal action to protect the integrity of the E.U. single market.

Make UK, a business organisation representing British manufacturers, said businesses needed both sides to urgently get around the negotiating table to agree on a “pragmatic” settlement.

Stephen Phipson, chief executive of the organisation, said:

“We recognise that the protocol in the current state does need to be changed. But the way to do this is not to start a trade war with the E.U. in the middle of a financial crisis which would be damaging for both British and E.U. businesses alike and put further strain on already stretched supply chains.”

The London Chamber of Commerce and Industry said the government’s action risked “significant harm” to businesses across the UK.

Chief Executive Richard Burge said:

“Getting Brexit done was at least meant to deliver certainty to businesses after years of waiting for clarity on the future of the UK’s trade relations with the European UnionThe introduction of this bill means we are now teetering on the brink of a trade war with the E.U. and that will mean further economic pain and falls in investment.

Johnson signed the Northern Ireland Protocol with the E.U. in 2019 as part of the Brexit withdrawal agreement, with the measures aimed at preventing a hard border on the island of Ireland.

But the protocol has been fiercely opposed by unionists in the British province, who complain that it effectively keeps Northern Ireland within the E.U. single market while erecting a border in the Irish Sea between the province and mainland Britain.

Northern Ireland has not had a functioning local government since February, when the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), then the largest party in the regional assembly, withdrew from the power-sharing executive in protest against the protocol.

END

SWITERZLAND/SNB

A real shocker:  the Swiss hikes rate for the first time in 15 years sending the Franc skyrocketing.  Jordan is ready for further raises as he fights inflation in Switzerland and he is ready for a pain as the Swiss franc will continue to elevate against the Euro.

This is very troublesome for the Euro boys.

(zerohedge)

In Shock Decision, SNB Hikes Rates For First Time In 15 Years, Warns It May Sell Billions In Stocks

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 07:49 AM

In a decision that came as shock to the market, this morning the Swiss National Bank (SNB) raised its policy rate by 50bp to -0.25%, its first rate hike in 15 years, against unanimous consensus of no change, and a dramatic move that sent the franc surging more than 2% against the euro, bringing parity between the two currencies into view.

While Goldman had flagged a strong possibility of a hike, the magnitude of the hike – 50bp rather than 25bp – was also a surprise to market expectations. But the true bombshell is that as part of the decision, the SNB also adjusted its language on potential currency intervention by dropping the one-sided commitment to guard against currency depreciation, implicitly signalling the potential for foreign asset sales to further strengthen the Franc. This is a problem for US stocks because as the bank’s latest 13F filing shows (yes, the SNB files its stock holdings like any other hedge fund), it owns some $177 billion in US stock (and hundreds of billions in other securities), which it may now proceed to sell to keep the Swiss Franc stronger.  In his press conference introductory remarks Chairman Jordan also reversed the previous stance on the currency, saying that the “Swiss franc is no longer highly valued”.

“We do not exclude further rate hikes, but we are also not in the business of forward guidance,” Jordan told Bloomberg when asked about the path for rates. “We should not underestimate the risk of high inflation.”

Going back to the statement, the inflation forecast was revised up significantly over the entire forecast horizon, while the SNB’s growth outlook for this year remained unchanged.

Given the SNB’s hawkish surprise today, Goldman now looks for three further 50bp hikes in September, December and March next year, followed by one further 25bp hike in June of next year for a terminal rate of 1.50%.

The franc’s appreciation put it on course for its biggest rally since January 2015, when the SNB removed its cap on the currency. As with Thursday’s surprise, that was also a shock decision.

The SNB actions pre-empt a hike in the neighboring euro area. The European Central Bank — whose stance the SNB has tended to follow — will only start next month, with another to follow in September. Traders cranked up bets on ECB rate increases after the SNB’s move, sending euro-area bonds tumbling. That’s a headache for the ECB, which was already forced to hold an emergency meeting Wednesday because of a jump in yields in some euro-area countries.

The SNB has long battled against the strength of the haven franc, but the latest actions mark a major pivot. While it will remain “active” in the currency market, the central bank didn’t repeat its long standing description of the franc as “highly valued.” The SNB also provided a two-way option for interventions. Not only is it ready to step in against excessive appreciation, it also threatened to sell the franc if it weakens. The SNB can act in “both directions,” Jordan said.

“They have made a complete U-turn in their currency management policy,” said Francesco Pesole, a currency strategist at ING Groep NV, who forecasts the euro-Swiss franc pair moving as low as 0.98 francs per euro over the coming quarters.

“A lot of macro investors — including ourselves — will now be eyeing Swiss franc longs in a world where the SNB is hiking rates and global recession risks are intensifying,” said Viraj Patel, macro strategist at Vanda Research. “We wouldn’t be surprised if the next few months is all about testing the SNB’s pain threshold for a stronger Swiss franc.”

As for liquidating its massive stock portfolio, given the SNB’s preference for tightening the monetary stance through the policy rate rather than the balance sheet, Goldman expects the SNB to only gradually unwind its asset holdings, without a pre-announced path.

END

HOLLAND/FRANCE

Dutch Minister slammed after calling for you from France’s crime ridden suburbs to fill jobs

(Brooke/Remix News)

Dutch Minister Slammed After Calling For Youth From France’s Crime-Ridden Suburbs To Fill Jobs

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 05:00 AM

By Thomas Brooke of Remix News

The call from a senior Dutch government minister to import and employ young people from problem neighborhoods in France and Spain has been ridiculed as “crazy” and “dangerous” by the country’s national-conservative opposition.

Karien van Gennip, the Dutch social affairs and employment minister in Mark Rutte’s government, made the remarks during an interview with the Algemeen Dagblad newspaper in which she floated the idea of greater immigration for underprivileged French and Spanish youngsters, mainly from multicultural neighborhoods. Her remarks came alongside her admission that she feels responsible for the 1 million Dutch people who are either currently unemployed or would like to work more hours.

According to van Gennip, offering employment to youth from the French suburbs, which are notorious for their high crime rates, would help them “get on the right track.”

“People who come here to work deserve the same treatment as the Dutch,” van Gennip told the newspaper.

“It’s people like you and me,” she added.

The government minister proposed that troubled youths wanting to better themselves could work in hospitality and horticulture across the Netherlands, including in the country’s many industrial greenhouses and on Dutch farms.

Conservative parties including the PVV, FvD, JA21 and BVNL have all publicly criticized the remarks, with PVV leader Geert Wilders calling the suggestion “crazy.”

“One day the farmers have to be destroyed, the next day mega asylum seeker centers are being built, and today we are going to bring French unemployed from the dangerous banlieues here,” Wilders tweeted on Tuesday.

“That’s what the cabinet wants: the Dutch farmers out and the Algerians and Moroccans from France in,” he added.

Thierry Baudet’s Forum for Democracy (FvD) reacted in a similar fashion, tweeting from its party account:

“Low-educated Africans, responsible for insecurity and crime in French suburbs, have no business in the Netherlands.”

“Working and living here is for our own people.”

Similarly, Joost Eerdmans of JA21 called van Gennip’s suggested policy a “bizarre plan” that is “asking for trouble.”

The Dutch economy employs around half a million labor migrants at any given time, with approximately 800,000-900,0000 working in the country throughout the year, according to van Gennip.

“Our economy also runs to a large extent on labor migrants. You can no longer see the Netherlands separately from them,” she said.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Mariupol Deja Vu: Ukraine Fighters & Civilians Trapped In Besieged Severodonetsk Chemical Plant

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 04:15 AM

In an echo of the prior fall of Mariupol, Ukraine rejected a Wednesday Kremlin ultimatum to surrender the holdout eastern city of Severodonetsk even as Russian forces have it surrounded, with all main bridges destroyed, and have reached the town center. There’s further an emerging situation which bears eerie similarity to last month’s Azovstal steel plant standoff now playing out in Severodonetsk:

A Russian-backed separatist official said that at least 1,200 civilians, including 127 children, are being “held hostage” at a chemical plant in the besieged Ukrainian city of Severodonetsk.

Speaking to the Russian state news agency TASS, the pro-Russian Luhansk People’s Republic’s interior minister, Vitaly Kiselev, alleged that Ukrainian forces were keeping civilians at the Azot plant “against their will.”

Azot chemical plant in Severodonetsk, via Ukrinform

Russia has told the militants to come out of the plant immediately and stop their “senseless resistance and lay down arms”. Again like Mariupol, it’s another ‘surrender or die’ message. The Ukrainian side is saying the Russian version of events is propaganda, charging that Russian invading forces have trapped civilians inside the large plant.

And just like with Mariupol before, which is in the south, Russia is telling the final Ukrainian resistance that the situation is hopeless and that their demise is inevitable. However, at a moment the defense ministers of multiple NATO countries are meeting in Brussels to consider more urgent weapons transfers amid fast depleting Ukrainian stocks, Kiev is hoping that immediate ramped up additional arms and munitions could allow forces in the Donbas to hold their positions.

According to a description of the bleak situation in Reuters:

The Mayor of Severodonetsk Oleksandr Stryuk said that after the early morning deadline passed Russian forces were trying to storm the city from several directions but claimed Ukrainian forces continued to defend it and were not completely cut off.

“We are trying to push the enemy toward the city center,” he said on television, without referring to the ultimatum. “This is an ongoing situation with partial successes and tactical retreats,” he added.

There are still thousands of Ukrainian civilians trapped in the city which before the war had a little over 100,000 residents, but is now center of the last battle for Luhansk province.

For over the past week, the large Azot plant has been scene of non-stop, heavy fighting:

Meanwhile the situation of the encircled Azot chemical plant presents an additional danger to all trapped there given the presence of highly volatile chemical compounds:

In a statement released on June 6 on behalf of the Ukrainian businessman who owns the chemical plant, American lawyer Lanny Davis said that around 800 people were sheltered beneath the plant. That included about 200 of the 3,000 employees who had worked there. The workers had stayed behind to protect “as best as possible what is left of the plant’s highly explosive chemicals.”

The Russian military said it had established a ‘humanitarian corridor’ on Wednesday for those wishing to leave freely, but which was reportedly disrupted due to resumption of shelling.

The Ukrainian governor of Luhansk Serhiy Haidai summed up the current situation in a fresh statement saying, “Severodonetsk is actually blocked after they blew up the last bridge that connected it with Lysychansk yesterday,” speaking of Russian forces.

And the deputy leader of the pro-Kremlin Donetsk People’s Republic Eduard Basurin told reporters: “Therefore, the Ukrainian military units that are stationed there remain there forever,” while underscoring: “They have two options:

 Either follow the example of their colleagues and surrender, or die. They have no other option.”

end

Turkey, Russia/Ukraine

Three Ukrainian ports can now be accessed by grain ships but no guarantees on mines

(zerohedge)

Turkey & Russia Say 3 Ukrainian Ports Can Now Be Accessed By Grain Ships

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 09:05 AM

Authored by Kyle Anzalone & Will Porter via The Libertarian Institute,

Ankara and Moscow have put forward potential solutions to reopen Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, with Russia offering safe passage to ships while Turkey said it could help guide vessels around Ukrainian naval mines deployed to stall the Russian advance.

Russia’s UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia told reporters on Wednesday that the Kremlin is open to creating a “safe passage” for grain shipments, but said Moscow could not guarantee a route that would be free of mines.Maxar Technologies image showing Russia-flagged Matros Pozynich docked in Sevastopol in May.

“We are not responsible for establishing safe corridors. We said we could provide safe passage if these corridors are established,” he said. “It’s obvious it’s either de-mine the territory, which was mined by the Ukrainians, or ensure that the passage goes around those mines.”

While Turkey has said it would “take some time” to clear away the munitions, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu suggested safe corridors could be found in some Ukrainian ports, presenting the offer a short-term solution. 

“Since the location of the mines is known, certain safe lines would be established at three ports,” the FM said earlier on Wednesday, adding that ships could “come and go safely to ports without a need to clear the mines.”

Cavusoglu went on to say that Ankara has not received a response from the Kremlin on the proposal, but is currently working with the United Nations on a plan. UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric confirmed that discussions were underway, though noted that an agreement from both Ukraine and Russia would be needed to move forward.

Turkey’s National Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, meanwhile, told TRT that the three nations recently created an “emergency communication mechanism” to resolve the problem and reopen Ukraine’s ports, but it’s not yet clear whether any progress had been made in negotiations. Last Sunday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also announced that he plans to hold a three-way dialogue on the issue with his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts sometime in the coming weeks, after Ankara hosted several rounds of lower-level peace talks.

Kiev, however, has signaled that it will not accept the Russian or Turkish proposals. Speaking at an event in Washington on Wednesday, David Arakhamia, a lawmaker and the head of Ukraine’s negotiation team, said “Our military people are against [de-mining the ports], so that’s why we have very, very limited optimism for this model.”

The UN has warned that the disruption of grain exports from Ukraine could have a massive impact on global food supplies. Together, Moscow and Kiev provide up to 40% of Eastern Europe’s grain purchases, and make up an even greater part of some countries’ total imports.

While Ukrainian and American officials have repeatedly blamed Russia for the shortages, Moscow has rejected the charge, instead pinning the scarcities on US sanctions and the explosives still deployed at key Ukrainian seaports. The Kremlin previously offered to help establish a safe route for shipping vessels in exchange for sanctions relief, but Washington refused to take up the deal.

The US and its Western partners have attempted to cripple the Russian economy through heavy sanctions in response to the invasion, some pledging outright embargoes on the country’s energy exports. While the penalties initially sent the ruble tumbling, it has since made a significant comeback and is now among the best performing currencies against the dollar in 2022. Meanwhile, the White House is now quietly pushing US shipping companies to do business with Russian fertilizer suppliers. 

The conflict raging in Eastern Europe has not severed all business ties between Moscow and Kiev, as Ukraine’s state-run Naftogaz has continued to work with its Russian equivalent, Gazprom. Though the two firms have reportedly done hundreds of millions of dollars in trade since the war kicked off in February, the shaky truce could soon fracture, as Naftogaz is now pursuing a lawsuit against Gazprom for alleged underpayment.

END

RUSSIA/USA

Two American Fighters Are Believed Captured By Russia In Ukraine

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 09:45 AM

Two American citizens and military veterans who were fighting alongside Ukraine forces against the Russian invasion are feared captured, CNN and other major media are reporting Thursday.

Alexander John-Robert Drueke, 39, from Tuscaloosa, Alabama and Andy Tai Ngoc Huynh, 27, from Hartselle, Alabama are currently “missing” from the battlefield, however, their precise fate is as yet unconfirmedaccording to a State Department official. Alexander Drueke photo via Facebook. Andy Tai Huynh photo courtesy WAAY-TV, via The Drive.

If their capture by the Russian army is confirmed, it would mark the first known instance that American volunteers have been taken into custody by Russia, raising the stakes and tensions significantly between Washington and Moscow.

White House national security spokesman John Kirby didn’t confirm the reports, but strongly hinted that it’s the administration’s belief they were likely captured, given he stated to reporters the US government “will do everything we can” to get Huynh and Drueke back.

The men’s families have sounded the alarm over their likely capture, describing that they lost all contact with the pair a week ago. Further CNN in a fresh report has revealed the following details of their last known whereabouts as follows

A man who is acting as the team’s sergeant, who wished to remain anonymous for security reasons, provided CNN with photos of both men’s passports and their entry stamps into Ukraine. The man said that their unit was fighting under the command of Ukraine’s 92nd mechanized brigade on June 9, near the town of Izbytske.

Drueke and Huynh, he said, went missing during the battle and subsequent search missions failed to find any remains. A post on a Russian propaganda channel on Telegram the following day claimed that two Americans had been captured near Kharkiv. “It was absolute chaos,” he told CNN. “There was about a hundred plus infantry advancing on our positions. We had a T72 firing on people from 30, 40 meters away.”

Drueke’s modter said to CNN that “they are presumed to be prisoners of war, but that has not been confirmed.”

Throughout Thursday morning the reports received such international attention that the Kremlin formally addressed the allegations of American foreign fighters in its custody:

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on June 16 in a televised program that Washington had not contacted Moscow regarding the two U.S. citizens.

Huynh is a Marine veteran, while Drueke is an Army veteran – though little has as yet been revealed by the respective branches about their service record at this point.

The US State Dept. now says the US is “closely monitoring the situation” and are “in contact with Ukrainian authorities” – but issued no further details based on “privacy considerations”. Likely if US officials had anything to make them believe that the Russian Telegram reports and claims are false, they would deny it.

Last week there was shock and outrage in the West after a pair of British fighters that were in the Ukrainian army were handed death sentences after their capture during battles in the Donbas region by a pro-Russian Donetsk court. 28-year old Aiden Aslin and 48-year old Shaun Pinner were charged with “terrorism” and “being a mercenary”. A third foreigner, a Moroccan, was also tried alongside them and given the same sentence.

6//GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE

Biden Administration Sued Over Records On Withholding COVID-19 Treatment From Florida

WEDNESDAY, JUN 15, 2022 – 06:20 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A watchdog seeking records from President Joe Biden’s administration on the rationing of a key COVID-19 treatment is suing the government for not providing the records in a timely manner.US Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra speaks at the IV CEO Summit of the Americas on the sidelines of the IX Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles, Calif., on June 8, 2022. (Patrick Fallon/AFP via Getty Images)

The Functional Government Initiative (FGI) is seeking records that will shed light on why the administration cut shipments of monoclonal antibodies to Florida and other states in 2021 into 2022.

But the Department of Health and Human Services and two subagencies—the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID—have not complied with legal requirements outlined in the Freedom of Information Act, the watchdog says, prompting a lawsuit in federal court.

The only way we’re going to be able to obtain these documents is through a lawsuit and that’s why we are suing HHS, NIH, and NIAID,” Peter McGinnis, a spokesman for FGI, told The Epoch Times.

Monoclonal antibodies were one of the most successful treatments of COVID-19 that have been authorized or approved by U.S. regulators, particularly against strains of SARS-CoV-2 that were circulating in 2021.

Florida was one of the first states to promote the drug, which prevents mild or moderate cases of COVID-19 from becoming more severe, thus leading to fewer hospitalizations.

The federal government monopolized the supply. It handed out doses for free to states, but the arrangement largely left states unable to order any doses themselves when the Biden administration started rationing in the fall of 2021, hitting states like Florida and Texas.

At the same time, other states saw no change or an increase in allocation.

The rationing decision was “potentially motivated by politics,” McGinnis said, noting that top Biden administration officials and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, traded barbs over the move in public.

That makes it important to see emails and other records concerning the decision, according to the watchdog.

Hopefully it’s not. I would hate to live in a world that no, we have a pandemic on our hands and the White House is restricting essential medical supplies over, ‘we don’t like this governor in the way that he attacks us, we’re not going to let him have this,’” McGinnis said.

DeSantis’s office declined to comment on the suit. HHS, NIH, and NIAID did not respond to requests for comment.

According to the filing, FGI filed the requests for information in February. The HHS acknowledged the request but has not given any other updates. That violates the law, which says that agencies must, within 20 days, notify the person making a request whether they’ll comply and the right of seeking assistance from the FOIA public liaison for the agency.

The NIH, in addition to an automatic acknowledgement, had an employee reach out for clarification but did so after the 20-day limit outlined in the law. In addition, after FGI responded to the questions, the NIH did not give any other updates.

NIAID told FGI on May 10 that its requests were under review and said the estimated time was 6 months. It wasn’t clear whether a search was underway or whether a review merely referred to deciding whether to process the requests.

Absent the lawsuit, FGI told the court that it will not receive the information it seeks due to the agencies flouting the law.

The watchdog asked the court to order the agencies to produce all records within 10 days, or such other time as deemed appropriate.

UK

end

GLOBAL ISSUES/SUPPLY CHAINS

end

VACCINE INJURY

Vaccine Impact

California Assembly Passes Bill on Expanded Abortions that Includes Infanticide

June 15, 2022 4:45 pm

I have previously written that if the Supreme Court does strike down the infamous Roe vs. Wade abortion decision, that this will NOT decrease abortions in the United States, but actually increase them. The issue of abortion will now be dealt with at the State level, and some states, like California, will increase abortion services and become “Abortion Tourism States.” In states that restrict or ban abortions altogether, look for legislation to be adopted that forces employers or the state to pay for pregnant employees who want abortions that are illegal in their state to travel to one of these “Abortion Tourism” states. It will open up a whole new market to make money off of abortions in the U.S. In California, the State Assembly just passed AB 2223 which will also probably pass the Senate and be signed into law by Governor Newsom, which approves abortions not only through the 3rd trimester, but also after birth in what are called “perinatal deaths.”

Read More…


10,000 Head of Kansas Feedlot Cattle Reportedly Dead

June 15, 2022 6:14 pm

Multiple news sources are reporting that thousands of feedlot cattle have died in Kansas, and they are blaming it on the heat. Many farmers have chimed in on social media, however, stating that cattle don’t usually die like this simply because of heat, especially in the southern cattle producing states, such as Texas which have long, hot summers. Because these are “feedlot” cattle living in close quarters and being fed commercial feed, rather than cattle that graze on pasture, some have speculated it could have been poisoning, while others are theorizing it could be EMF radiation such as from 5G towers, as there is some precedence of EMF radiation poisoning harming cattle in the past.

Read More..




Michael Every//

Michael Every on the day’s most important topics

Rabobank: Central Bank Amateur Hour Means Growing Risk Of People Sharpening Guillotines

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 10:05 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Yesterday saw major developments from both the ECB and the Fed. In both cases, it was sadly amateur hour.

The ECB, less than a week after saying it didn’t need a “concrete plan” for Euro fragmentation risk as it raised rates, was forced to hold an emergency meeting to provide one due to the surge in Italian yields: it said, “We will get back to you.” Their plan is a promise to come up with a plan. El-Erian was saying yesterday that the Fed risks looking like an emerging market central bank, channelling my recent DM = EM meme: and the ECB came across as a bad EM central bank. (By contrast, Brazil just hiked rate 50bps with no drama. They might want to offer lessons.)

My colleagues cover this Eurosis in more detail in ‘Pain threshold hit already?’, noting the ECB statement leaves much uncertainty over how powerful its intervention will actually be. We expect more clarity in July, and its vagueness may contain spreads for now, as the market will not want to try the ECB’s hand ahead of the formalization of any instrument. However, once an anti-fragmentation tool is known and markets will know its limitations, that arguably gives traders a new target to aim for – and they will go for it. Especially if it just says, ‘Build Back Better’.  

There are lots of ways the ECB can act via acronyms. However, clearly there can be no end to ECB QE as they raise rates – as posited here was logical; or they can’t raise rates at all; and there can’t be any real QT. Moreover, the ECB raising rates and doing QE is now both monetization and mutualization.  So, logically, we have a central bank that de facto “prints” money… and very inefficiently for the real economy. Regular readers might recall my thought-piece from mid-2020 asking how we were going to justify our political-economy when it doesn’t work anymore. The ECB is now a case in point: is “because Euro” enough for everyone ?

So to the Fed, where we got a first-since 1994 75bps hike following the leaks planted in the press during a supposed blackout period. Yet markets rallied hard because:

  1. the Fed had leaked it, rather than shocking them, so undoing the point of a bigger move;
  2. because Powell then refused to cement a 75bps move in July, as if the inflation dynamic he suddenly watches will have changed in a few weeks; and
  3. because he also stressed there will be a soft landing – as the drop in retail sales and the Atlanta Fed survey suggests a reasonable chance the US is already in a technical recession.

The market also liked that the Fed’s projected long run rates projection was clustered around 2.50%. Yet there is no sign that broad commodity inflation is under control to match, leading President Biden to now lash out at over-stretched-and-about-to-be-windfall-taxed US refiners for causing inflation. And Russia just cut gas flows to Germany by 40% and to Italy by 15%. That long-run rate is really a loooong way out until the supply side is sorted out.

Our Fed-whisperer Philip Marey argues in ‘75 not the new 50, but maybe again next time’ that the Keystone Cops from the Eccles Building are again behind the curve. He now sees the Fed Funds rates having to move closer to 4% by year end, with 75bps in July, and then three 50bps hikes in a row. Then we get a US recession (or perhaps another one) in H2 2023. As such, one would posit the huge bull steepening in the US curve and the post-FOMC equity rally are both likely to be reversed ahead.  

Tomorrow is then the BOJ and their “Hey, ECB, hold my beer!” yield curve control policy – as yesterday saw the 10-year JGB yield break as high as 0.29% before being brought back down to 0.246% again via yet more intervention. When that peg eventually breaks, markets are going to get hit hard. Japan is currently a source of ultra-cheap financing in a world of rising rates, and with a currency that is only going one way – down. If both reverse at once,… ouch!

Only Korea would be really happy: it goes head-to-head with Japan in many export markets, and is openly saying it is facing an economic crisis as the BOJ goes all-in. They will arguably need a Fed swap line soon. So will many others as US rates rise. Yet the Fed will only be handing them out to geopolitical friends, i.e., what about Türkiye and its crumbling TRY, as it places its S-400 anti-aircraft missiles facing towards Greece, flies a UAV over a Greek island, and blocks Swedish and Finnish NATO membership?

That’s ironically central banking coming full circle to its origins as a vehicle for national security and Grand Strategy, a point I have repeated before. Nobody created central banks to be inefficient money printing machines, or for rich people. They had a far more important purpose. They likely will have to do so again – but do you think this collective bunch of amateurs are the ones to lead that particular charge?

First-time readers will see, and regular readers will know, that I do not show much of the usual market deference for central banks or central bankers. But why should we?

Epistemologically, how can any bureaucrat have any true idea of what is happening in any one economy and national financial market, with all its moving parts, let alone when it is cojoined to the global?

Methodologically, how can they have any idea what effects their actions will or won’t engender when based on a theoretical neoliberal economic framework that would be laughed out of the room if presented as any form of hard ‘science’?

Heuristically, after their initial creation to finance wars (such as the Bank of England vs. Napoleon), central banks’ modern-day track record is one of almost continual policy failure – it’s just that we refuse to take the big picture view to frame it properly, instead focusing on the here-and-now pockets of coincidental historic ‘success’. A quick time-line recap of ‘amateur decades’ follows.

Pre-WW1 central banks are seen as having worked well under a gold standard. Actually it was British imperialism that tied things together. The global system ‘worked’, in a far simpler economy, by ripping off swathes of countries at gunpoint: and even then inflation swung massively positive and negative all the time. The gold peg was what mattered, not inflation. Then America got too big, and Germany got too big for its boots and tried to copy British imperialism. That was the end of the pre-WW1 period.

Post-WW1 central banks never all got back on a milquetoast gold standard due to huge war debts, or destroyed societies where they tried if they didn’t let credit boom anyway. All they rustled up was fascism, the Wall Street Crash, the Great Depression, and then Nazism and WW2.

Post-WW2 central banks under Bretton Woods and Cold War saw international capital flows regulated and credit rationed or allocated in a hypothecated manner domestically. As such, even their Keynesian models couldn’t screw things up too badly, and we got 25 years of low inflation and solid GDP growth. Yet the Triffin Paradox kicked in, and the US was forced off gold, and Bretton Woods collapsed. Then we saw deregulation of capital flows domestically and externally.

Central banks decided that following monetary aggregates was then the key to keeping inflation in check, because “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” Except this policy didn’t work in the slightest, because once you deregulate markets, especially allowing US dollars to flow to the Eurodollar market, all your M0, M1, M2, M3 data are useless. Central banks had to abandon the policy framework.

Only with the emergence of true globalisation did inflation plunge and stay low – due to the breaking of unions, privatisation, and offshoring, especially to cheap-as-chips China. Again, this was nothing to do with central banks – who nonetheless took all the credit.

Such deregulation of course caused rolling financial instability, but the central bank response was always to cut rates into any crisis to blow more air back into the global bubble. Likewise, as society became more unequal and real wages lagged behind productivity growth, the response was to push up asset prices, not wages. Greenspan was the “maestro”. Then we got the GFC in 2008-09, which central banks’ didn’t see it coming at all despite being ‘experts’ in it.

Then it was the post-2009 ‘new normal’ decade, where central banks tried to get inflation back up to 2% by making rich people even richer with acronyms, and the ECB did “whatever it takes”, leading to yesterday’s door opening to structural, inefficient, mutualised monetisation of debt.  

Then we rediscovered fiscal and monetary policy during Covid in 2020…and inflation came roaring back.

In short, central banks can look smart for a long time, but entirely due to exogenous developments. They can blow things up by being crazily ahead of the curve, or very much behind it. But most of the time they are just making it up as they go along.

Arguably the worst sin they can commit is to *show* they don’t know what they are doing and are making it up as they go along. Amateur hours are dangerous because, as with royalty, the risk is the mystique and magic wears off, and people start asking awkward questions. Or sharpening guillotines.

Not that gold is any better – or crypto. The sad fact is that nothing works for long in a complex, dynamic system such as a globalized financialised economy. Logically, if we want true stability then we really shouldn’t have one. That’s not a forecast by the way, even if it is partly the zeitgeist.

For now, we are going to get much higher US rates, and then a recession – and then lots of questions about how things might work better than they currently do.

China has some ideas on that front. The PBOC is already unique among central banks with its lack of independence, as is China’s ‘common prosperity’ idea of avoiding Marxist “fictitious” capital, when that’s pretty much all the Western system has to offer. Building on that base, China will now require foreign funds based there to set up internal communist party units that will carry out “party activities”. That will make for some interesting morning calls – but at least the assessment of how foreign central banks’ policies work –or rather don’t– will be more accurate.

7. OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA/PAKISTAN

AUSTRALIA/ENERGY

‘Impossible To Continue Operating’: Australia’s National Energy Market Suspended

WEDNESDAY, JUN 15, 2022 – 10:20 PM

Authored by Rebecca Zhu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has suspended the entire national energy market from June 15 at 2:05 p.m. after it was deemed “impossible” to continue operating the spot market while ensuring a reliable energy supply.A power plug is placed into a power socket in Melbourne, Australia, on Oct. 22, 2012. (Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

AEMO Chief Executive Daniel Westerman prefaced the announcement by revealing the market operator had been forced to direct 5,000 megawatts of generation through direction interventions yesterday, roughly 20 percent of total demand.

“In the current situation suspending the market is the best way to ensure a reliable supply of electricity for Australian homes and businesses,” he said in a media release.

The situation in recent days has posed challenges to the entire energy industry, and suspending the market would simplify operations during the significant outages across the energy supply chain.

Westerman emphasised that the suspension would be temporary and be reviewed daily for each market region. Once the AEMO is able to resume market operation under normal rules, it will do so “as soon as practical.”

The suspension means the AEMO will take sole charge of dispatching energy to the energy grid and will not need to rely on last-minute interventions.

The operator will apply a pre-determined pricing schedule for each energy market region and generators may submit an application to AEMO if their costs exceed the suspended market.

“That visibility will help us to manage the system in real-time as well as to understand the balance of supply and demand,” Westerman told reporters. “Despite this, conditions remain tight in the coming days, in particular in New South Wales (NSW), where we would urge consumers to conserve energy where it is safe to do so.”

It is the first time the entire national energy market has been suspended since its formation in 1998. However, it has suspended the energy markets in Tasmania and South Australia in 2021, making it “a process that’s familiar to [the AEMO].”

The national energy market has faced significant challenges from a confluence of factors that led to this decision, including the closure of coal-fired plants, rising international coal and gas prices, and rising demand for heating during the winter season.

The NSW and Queensland energy ministers have backed both AEMO’s decision, with both saying it would ensure adequate supply across the Eastern states.

“This decision further reduces the risk of supply shortfalls and unplanned outages,” Queensland Energy Minister Mick de Brenni said. “I can assure Queenslanders there is surplus supply to meet demands in our state and a further generating unit is scheduled to return to service later this week.”

The Australian Industry Group said worried energy users need confidence in face of the market suspension.

The unprecedented suspension of the national electricity market spot market is a clear signal that the energy crisis in Eastern Australia is intensifying,” CEO Innes Willox said in a statement.

“The detail of the AEMO market suspension will be completely arcane to most business and household energy users. They need confidence that the physical electricity system they depend on will not collapse.”

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0399 DOWN  0.0059 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED

USA/ YEN 132.79   DOWN 1.266 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2149 DOWN   0.0029

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 20.02 POINTS UP 0.61%

 Hang Sang CLOSED  UP 262.78 PTS OR 2.12%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 31.3%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 262.78 PTS OR 2.12%   

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.02 PTS UP 0.61% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN  0.03% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  UP 105.04 OR 0.40%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1816.50

silver:$21.36

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 104.91  DOWN 3  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

 THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.82%  DOWN 2  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.347% UP 11     AND 2/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.89%// UP 1   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.865  DOWN 5   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.705%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.05078 UP  0.0048    or 48 basis points

USA/Japan: 132.22 DOWN 1.827  OR YEN UP  183  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.23140 UP 0.01392 OR 139  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0067 OR 67 BASIS pts  to 1.2938

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP 6.7085  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.7063

TURKISH LIRA:  17.30  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.347

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 8  IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at  3.314% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.372 DOWN 6 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 103.95 DOWN 99   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 210.45 PTS OR  2.89%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 408.70  POINTS OR 3.03%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 128.13 PTS OR 2.42% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 77.70 OR 0.90%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 650.14 PTS OR  2.89%

WTI Oil price 118.10   12: EST

Brent Oil:  120.43  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  56.70  UP  1/4        RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.705

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0575 UP   .01169   OR  UP 117 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2374 UP .01992  or  199 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 131.98 DOWN 2.078//YEN UP 208 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2877

 up .0061 (CDN dollar UP 70 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 116.79

Brent OIL:  119.87

USA 10 yr bond yield: 3.358 DOWN 13 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.398  DOWN 3  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.27

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  56.60 DOWN  .4 / ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: down 741.46 PTS 

NASDAQ 100 down 466.20 PTS OR 3.02%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 33.43 up 3.11 PTS (12.86)%

GLD: 172.72 UP 21/95PTS OR 1.14%

SLV/ 20.23 UP .27 PTS OR 1.35%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Dow Dumps Below 30k As Huge OpEx Looms; Gold Gains, Greenback Gags

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 04:01 PM

The SNB stole the jam out of The Fed’s donut overnight as it became obvious that many investors in the world had no idea just how many billions in US mega-cap tech the Swiss National Bank owned… and was standing ready to liquidate.

The unexpected 50bps hike sent Swissy soaring higher…

Source: Bloomberg

And Swiss 10Y yields spiked to 11 year highs…

Source: Bloomberg

And US futures tumbling lower. Nasdaq was down over 4.5%, S&P down over 3.5% and Dow over 2.5%…

Erasing all of yesterday’s post-Powell gains and then some (NOTE that futures were fading overnight before the SNB news hit as the post-Powell hangover hit)…

The Dow broke down below 30,000 today for the first time since Jan 2021 – hitting its lowest since Dec 2020 intraday (Dow is -19.5% from all-time highs, just shy of ‘bear market’ territory)…

Source: Bloomberg

Small Caps led the slump and now back below pre-COVID highs (Dow is just 1% above those highs)…

Source: Bloomberg

…and we note that Bloomberg found that the number of Russell 3000 (non-financial) companies trading for less than cash has surpassed the month-end record set during the Global Financial Crisis.

Source: Bloomberg

US equities were not helped by yet more dismal macro data (housing starts, permits, jobless claims, Philly Fed all disappointed), sending US Macro Surprise Index to its lowest since July 2019…

Source: Bloomberg

Adding to the chaos is the fact that tomorrow’s OpEx is a biggy: $3.4 trillion notional expiring (which as Goldman’s Rocky Fishman notes is more like a December size and the eradication oif large put positions has the possibly of sparking a major inflection point).

As SpotGamma noted, the very tricky part here is that, until puts are closed, they are going to drive a lot of volatility. As it appears the macro community wanted to sell today after digesting Powell, then these OPEX positions will excite that selling until they expire, and a tag of 3600 is easily in the cards. In that scenario SpotGamma would still be looking for a rally on Tuesday of next week.

Today saw the 4th largest ‘sell program’ in history hit the stock markets early on…

Source: Bloomberg

US Treasuries ended the day lower in yield today with the short-end outperforming (2Y-8bps, 30Y -2bps), but all followed a similar pattern, dumped overnight then bid during the day…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields almost tagged 3.50% today before reversing all the overnight rise and ending lower on the day (-19bps from the highs) and below the post-FOMC lows…

Source: Bloomberg

The Euro soared on comments by various ECB heads about their ‘anti-fragmentation’ tools…

Source: Bloomberg

…which did compress peripheral bond spreads somewhat…

Source: Bloomberg

This Euro strength sent the dollar down hard – its biggest daily drop since March 2020….

Source: Bloomberg

The Yen surged today after weeks of weakness…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin erased yesterday afternoon’s gains, falling back below $22k again…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold extended yesterday’s gains, topping $1850…

Oil roundtripped to end the day around unchanged…

US NatGas rallied during the EU session (on the back of Gazprom supply cuts that sent EU NatGas soaring), but faded back to unchanged by the close. Between Freeport and Gazprom, the spread between EU and US NatGas has exploded wider…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, America’s inflation and labor market situation has driven the ‘Misery’ Index (adjusted using CPI and LFPR) to its worst since Jimmy Carter was president…

Source: Bloomberg

And, as if it’s any consolation, we note that the pain this year has been equally (almost) distributed as @Mike Zaccardi notes that Global 60/40 (stocks/bonds) are down almost 20% from their all-time-highs…

Source: Bloomberg

So much for diversification in a stagflationary environment.

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING//

Dow Dumps Back Below 30,000; Lowest Since Dec 2020

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 09:53 AM

For the first time since January 2021, The Dow Industrials just broke back below 30,000, erasing all of yesterday’s post-Powell gains and then some…

This is the lowest level for The Dow since December 2020. The Dow is now just 1% above pre-COVID highs…

All the US Majors are now underwater from Tuesday, erasing all of yesterday’s gains with Small Caps leading the charge lower…

Bonds are also getting hammered this morning with the long-end underperforming more…

The dollar and gold are also lower this morning.

Small Caps are now trading lower than pre-COVID levels…

So, $5 trillion in QE was wasted?

ii) USA DATA

USA housing starts and permits collapse in May. With this data, the Atlanta Fed will probably send their message that 2nd Q GDP is in negative territory

(zerohedge)_

US Housing Starts, Permits Collapse In May

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 08:36 AM

Amid surging layoffs in the real estate market, slumping homebuilder sentiment, soaring rates and plunging mortgage applications, it is no surprise that analysts expected a drop in Housing Starts and Permits in May (-1.8% MoM and -2.5% MoM respectively). Those numbers were destroyed as Housing Starts crashed 14.4% MoM and Permits plunged 7.0% MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the biggest drop in housing starts since the economy was shutdown by the government in April 2020.

Starts have fallen to their lowest since April 2021 and Permits to their lowest since Sept 2021.

Source: Bloomberg

And given where homebuilder sentiment is going, we suspect permits (forward-looking) will only get worse…

Source: Bloomberg

And given the layoffs are already starting, we suspect the new home inventory won’t get any help anytime soon as affordability crashes to multi-decade lows.

END

Economy continues to crumble!

(zerohedge)

US Jobless Claims Continue To Trend Higher

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 08:43 AM

The number of Americans filing for first time unemployment benefits was practically flat at 229k this week (vs an upwardly revised 232k last week) but the trend is clear from the chart below…

Source: Bloomberg

While continuing claims trends lower, initial claims are trending significantly higher as a turn in the labor market is clear.

The 4-week average of initial claims is now at its highest level January 2022.

When does The Fed start to panic at this level? 300k?

END

The economy continues to crumble

(zerohedge)

Philly Fed Plunges Into Contraction For First Time Since COVID Lockdowns

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 08:54 AM

Another day, another disappointing macro data point in the US economy. While ‘hard’ data has been tumbling, we now see the usual optimism-filled ‘soft’ survey data giving up hope as Philly Fed’s business barometer plunged into contraction in June (from +2.6 to -3.3), notably missing expectations of a small rebound to +5.0.

This is the first contraction since the COVID lockdowns of 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

Looking into the details, we see that new orders contracted dramatically, as did the workweek as backlogs are worked through:

  • June prices paid fell to 64.5 vs 78.9
  • New orders fell to -12.4 vs 22.1
  • Employment rose to 28.1 vs 25.5
  • Shipments fell to 10.8 vs 35.3
  • Delivery time fell to 9.9 vs 17.5
  • Inventories fell to -2.2 vs 3.2
  • Prices received fell to 49.2 vs 51.7
  • Unfilled orders fell to -7.0 vs 17.9
  • Average workweek fell to 11.8 vs 16.1

And most troubling of all, the six-month outlook fell to -6.8, its weakest since 2008…

Source: Bloomberg

The Philly Fed is leading the way lower in June across regional Fed surveys…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this what Powell wants?

END

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

iii)a.  USA economic stories

“We’re Barely Making It”: Furious Farmer Goes Viral Explaining Why Food Prices “Are Going To Go Up”

WEDNESDAY, JUN 15, 2022 – 06:00 PM

Last week we noted how US farmer sentiment plummeted in May – as producers have become anxious about their farm’s financial health.

According to the monthly survey by Purdue University/CME Group, The rapid rise in production costs and uncertainty regarding the direction of input prices have been important contributors to the drop in sentiment. About 44 percent of farmers, according to the monthly survey, cited input costs as their biggest concern for the coming year, according to the Epoch Times.

In fact, 60% of farmers predict farm input prices to be at least 30% higher this year compared to 2021.

To that end, Ohio farmer Holly Weilnau took to TikTok two weeks ago in a now-viral video to explain how farmers are suffering under inflated input costs, which is going to send the price of food much higher than it is right now.

There are things that we have to buy,” she sais, adding “There’s something we have to buy that two years ago cost us $24, last year was about $46, this year it is costing us $96.”

“Please understand, food prices are going to go up,” she continues. “You wanna act like it’s the farmers’ fault—it is not the farmers’ fault. We are barely making it to grow the stuff so you guys are able to get it in August, September, October.”

“Guys, this is not going away. Stop sticking your head in the sand and thinking ‘oh, it’s going to be okay’ — it’s not going to fuckin’ be okay.

In a Saturday video, Weilnau relayed a story about another farmer who was unable to lock in diesel pricing for this fall, and was told that it was because of uncertainty amid rapidly rising diesel costs.

“That alone, guys—to fill the tractors and the equipment needed to get the product out of the field—is going to be astronomically bad all the way around,” she said, adding: “So understand, people are like, ‘Oh, plan ahead’—we’re trying. They’re not letting us.”

Oh – and at least as of this writing, Twitter considered Weilnau’s videos “potentially sensitive content.”

This is far from the first farmer to offer a dire warning. Three weeks ago John Boyd Jr., the President of the National Black Farmers Association, said “We are in a crisis right now as far as the food chain goes with the farmer in this country,” adding “We’re going to see a lot of empty shelves and a lot more high food prices.” 

In his forty-year career as a farmer, Boyd said he never imagined he would be “paying $5.63 for a gallon of diesel fuel, $900 a ton for fertilizer, and all-time high prices for soybean seeds.” All of the prices he mentioned are at record highs, pressuring farmers’ margins. 

He said the American people need to wake up to the crisis in the farming industry, adding, “farming isn’t Republican or Democratic, it’s food, the land is neutral … this is the time the American people need to support the American farmer and put pressure on the Biden administration to put things in place to help farmers.”

He mentioned that banks need to provide emergency funding to farmers to get their crops in the ground. Out-of-control inflation has left some farmers unable to plant because of soaring costs. 

Boyd said, “We only have a short window of opportunity to give farmers funding.”

He stated the worst-case scenario is “a lot of shortages” of food that could materialize later this year. 

Prepare accordingly.

END

iii b USA//inflation stories/log jams //SHORTAGES//etc/

“We Are Teetering On The Edge”: Food Shortage Worries Mount As PA Farms “Crushed” By Record Diesel Prices

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 06:55 AM

There’s nothing like the sweet smell of Building Back Better…

Pennsylvania farmers are being “crushed” by the record cost of diesel – so much so, that questions about a food crisis are starting to loom, the Morning Call reported

One farmer in Lehigh County is quoted as saying: “I’ve got a tractor hooked up to my corn planter out here, no diesel fuel, and I can’t afford to get any.”

That farmer was airing his gripes to Kyle Kotzmoyer, a legislative affairs specialist for the Pennsylvania Farm Bureau. Kotzmoyer then turned around and testified to state lawmakers: “We have reached that point to where it is very close to being a sinking ship. We are teetering on the edge right now.”

The situation looks as though it will continue to push food prices higher, after the government reported that food prices in May were 10.1% higher than last year. 

Kotzmoyer lamented the possibility of a food shortage: “One, if they can’t afford to put it in the ground. Or, two, if they can’t afford to take it out.”

The PA average for diesel is now $6.19 per gallon, up about 75% from a year ago, the report notes. It is a “huge, huge expense” for farmers, Kotzmoyer told state legislators.

One farmer who works on about 3,500 acres burns through about 2,000 gallons of diesel per month, he said. “If the farmers cannot get crops out of the ground, then there is not food on the shelves.”

END

end

 

iv)swamp stories

end

King Report

The King Report June 16, 2022 Issue 6782Independent View of the News
 ECB Governing Council’s Emergency Meeting Begins at 11 a.m. (Frankfurt time) – BBG
 
ECB Plans Steps at Emergency Meeting to Address Market Crisis
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-15/ecb-to-discuss-using-pepp-reinvestments-as-first-crisis-response#xj4y7vzkg
 
ECB to design new bond-buying plan to tackle market turmoil
Emergency meeting addresses surging borrowing costs in eurozone countries such as Italy
https://www.ft.com/content/c519e5d5-f4c3-4554-9484-ddca75cf9bf3
 
Statement after the ad hoc meeting of the ECB Governing Council      15 June 2022
The Governing Council decided that it will apply flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio, with a view to preserving the functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism… In addition, the Governing Council decided to mandate the relevant Eurosystem Committees together with the ECB services to accelerate the completion of the design of a new anti-fragmentation instrument for consideration by the Governing Council.  (The ECB emergency meeting was a nothing burger!https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2022/html/ecb.pr220615~2aa3900e0a.en.html
 
May US Retail Sales unexpectedly declined 0.3% m/m, +0.1% was expected.  Ex-Auto sales are +0.5%; +0.7% was consensus.  Ex-Autos & Gas are +0.1%; +0.4% was expected.  For March, all three sales categories were revised 0.2 lower: to 0.7%, 0.4%, and 0.8% respectively.
 
Gasoline +4.0% m/m, +43.2% y/y; Motor Parts & Vehicles -3.5% m/m, -3.7% y/y
https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf
 
Atlanta Fed GDP Now ModelLatest estimate: 0.0 percent — June 15, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth… in the second quarter of 2022 is 0.0 percent on June 15, down from 0.9 percent on June 8… the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and second-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 3.7 percent to 2.6 percent, -8.5 percent to -9.2 percent, and 1.3 percent to 0.9 percent, respectively… https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
 
May Housing Starts and Industrial Production are due on Friday.  May Existing Homes Sales is due on Tuesday.  There is little May economic data left to report.  June data should be worse than May.
 
Homebuilder sentiment falls to 2-year low on declining demand and rising costsSentiment fell 8 points to 69 in May, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index.Of the index’s three components, current sales conditions fell 8 points to 78, and sales expectations in the next six months dropped 10 points to 63. Buyer traffic fell 9 points to 52.https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/home-builder-sentiment-falls-to-2-year-low-on-declining-demand-rising-costs.html
 
Biden warns Big Oil over gas output
President Biden will warn CEOs of the nation’s largest oil companies on Wednesday that he’s considering invoking emergency powers to boost U.S. refinery output, according to a letter obtained by Axios… Biden tells seven big refiners and fuel companies that he’s “prepared to use all reasonable and appropriate Federal Government tools and emergency authorities to increase refinery capacity and output in the near term.”…  https://www.axios.com/2022/06/15/biden-emergency-powers-oil-gas-prices
 
ESUs rallied sharply during Asian trading.  They sank during the Nikkei’s 2nd Session and traded in negative territory during the final hour of China trading (1 to 2 ET).  After a modest rally for the European open, ESUs and USU rallied sharply into the ECB Emergency Meeting.
 
When the feckless ECB announced a nothing burger, ESUs and USUs retreated.  When the US repo market opened at 7 ET, ESUs and USU commenced a robust rally.  ESUs peaked at 10:06 ET.  Wise guys then executed the 2nd leg of the pump & dump; ESUs sank 31 handles by 10:55 ET.  USUs traded in concert with ESUs but with a lesser movement magnitude. 
 
ESUs sank to 3764.75 at 11:19 ET.  The rally for the European close became the ‘A’ leg of an A-B-C rally than ended about 25 minutes before the FOMC Communique’s release at 14:00 ET.  ESUs then rolled over gently as traders awaited the Fed’s rate decision and Powell’s 14:30 ET press conference.
 
ESUs spiked higher 3 minutes BEFORE the FOMC Communique release at 14:00 ET.  They then tanked.
 
FOMC Communique HighlightsThe Fed hike its Fed Funds rate by 75bps to a new 1.50 to 1.75%The Fed hiked its ‘22 funds outlook to 3.4% by 12/31; 3.8% by ‘23 yearend; 3.4% for ‘24 yearendThe Fed said it was “strongly committed’ to returning inflation to its 2% targetThe Fed sees inflation at 5.2% by yearend20022 GDP was revised to 1.7% from 2.8% in March; ’23 GDP to 1.7% from 2.2%Fed hawk Ester George (KC Fed Prez) dissented with a 50bp rate hike votehttps://twitter.com/pearkes/status/1537133925264502785/photo/1
 
The Fed’s New Dot Plot after Its June Policy Meeting
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-dot-plot-june-policy-180307707.html
 
After the FOMC Communique release Fed Swaps were priced for a 75bp rate hike in July, and 140bps over July and September.
 
ESUs spiked as high as 3803.50, and then tumbled to 3760.00.  After another spasm higher, ESUs sank to 3752.00.  The S&P 500 Index hit a session high of 3796.00 at 14:00 ET and a session low of 3738.80 at 14:07 ET.  USUs reacted similarly.  The 2-year note was 3.411% at 14:05 ET, an 16bp jump for its low.
 
ESUs and USUs then rallied robustly ahead of the Powell Press Conference on hopes that Jerome would be more dovish than expected.  Eight minutes before Powell’s presser, ESUs tumbled.
 
Powell Press Conference Highlights“We are strongly committed to bring inflation down and we’re moving expeditiously”It is essential to get inflation down to get the economy moving“The labor market is extremely tight, and inflation is too high.”We will significantly decrease our balance sheetQ1 GDP was down due to inventoriesHousing is softening due to increasing mortgage ratesLabor demand is strong; labor supply is subdued“Price pressures have spread to a wide range of goods & services.”“Participants see the risks to inflation are weighted to the upside.”“We’re strongly committed to getting inflation back to our 2% objective.”Ongoing increased to our target rate will be appropriateWe will expeditiously move our target rate to appropriate levelsWe don’t see 75bp moves to be common 
Powell Q&A HighlightsMonetary policy is more effective when market participants understand our goalsThe neutral rate is pretty low these daysWe are not going to be model driven, but data drivenThe UM Sentiment disaster was “eye catching” and factor in the 75bp rate hikeThe other inducement to hike 75bps was the May CPI reportOur objective is to get inflation down to 2% while keeping the labor market strongThere is a path to keep a firm labor market, but it is NOT getting easierThe Fed cannot control supply side issues due to Ukraine War (It’s Putin’s fault!)Increasingly clear many inflation drivers are beyond Fed control (Doing a Biden!)We cannot affect energy prices (It’s Putin & Biden’s faults)The Fed cannot bring inflation down to 2% on its ownOur policy will be flexible and sensibleThere is no sign of a broader slowdown in the economy (Biden-sized whopper)Consumer spending is strong right now.” (Powell goes Mr. Magoo on the economy!)This is a highly uncertain environmentUncertain about how Fed policy will affect housing 
ESUs tumbled to a session low of 3723.50 when Powell began speaking.  Two minutes later, someone manipulated ESUs 66 handles higher in only 6 minutes!  Was this a Weird Wednesday expiry-related manipulation or did someone want to change the negative sentiment and narrative?
 
After a very brief respite, ESUS were forced to a session high of 3829.75, a 106.25, or 2.85% manipulation in only 12 minutes!  ESUs then tumbled 54 handles in 12 minutes.  ESUs and stocks then traded sideways until the late manipulation commenced at 15:18 ET.  The manipulation produced a 62-handle ESM gain in 20 minutes.  ESUs then tumbled 47 handles in 10 minutes!  What would the final 12 minutes bring?  Nothing! ESUs and stocks meander sideways into the close.
 
NB: Despite all the hoopla and hosanas for the Fed finally ‘getting it’, the real Fed Funds Rate is about NEGATIVE 700bps – and the US economy is slipping into recession!
 
We cannot contemplating Powell’s assertion that he sees no signs of broad economic slowing.  This is Mr. Magoo-like blindness – just like his blindness on inflation.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Robust ESU and USU rallies overnight, and during Powell’s presser
Fangs soared on expiry-related buying and manipulation
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds, the DJIA, DJUA, and the S&P 500 Index tumbled after the Fed Communique release
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
What are the consequences of a Real Fed Funds Rate of ~NEGATIVE 700bps?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: UpLast Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3783.26
Previous session High/Low3837.56; 3722.30
 
@galexybrane: FDA advisors just voted 21-0 to authorize Moderna’s vaccine for children 6 months old to 5 years old. Germany, France, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Finland all suspended Moderna for people under 30 due to safety concerns. But in the US we’ll now be giving this product to infants.
 
AFP reports Fauci has tested positive for Covid.  Quadrupled vaxxed & doubled masked to no avail!
 
Another Blow to the US Food Market: Fire Breaks Out at a Food Processing Plant West of Waupaca County in Wisconsin – Below is the updated list of U.S. plants that have been destroyed, damaged, or impacted by “accidental fires,” disease, or general causes… (91 instances)
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/06/another-blow-us-food-market-fire-breaks-food-processing-plant-west-waupaca-county-wisconsin/
 
@TruthGundlach on Tuesday night: The Federal Reserve should raise the Fed Funds rate to 3% tomorrow, in my opinion.  (Exactly! Put Funds slightly above the 2-year yield and hope for the best.)
 
With Fed rate policy well baked into the market for now, Fed balance sheet activity could become an even more important market dynamic.
 
Today – The relief rally that most expected appeared, driven by expiry-related buying and manipulation in SPY and Fang options as well as Fang stocks.  Bonds rallied 2 points.  But is that it?  Is there more expiry manipulation available?  Only the Shadow knows!
 
With the enormous amount of June derivatives ($3.2 trillion notional est.), there is no telling who or what entities will try to manipulate stuff.  Plus, as evinced by the market action after the FOMC Communique release, the markets are thin to the point of dysfunction. Watch SPY June option volumes to glean insight into the intentions of the mammoths that move markets.  Yesterday, 152,154 SPY June 380 calls traded.  Most of the volume occurred when Powell’s presser commenced.  Obviously, this was the key factor in the explosive rally.  SPY June 275 puts at 85,552 was the largest June put volume.  SPY closed at 379.09.
 
ESMs are +32.00 at 21:00 ET; USUs are +29/32.  Be alert for a pump & dump!
 
Expected economic data: Initial Jobless Claims 218k, Continuing Claims 1.307m; May Housing Starts 1.693m, Permits 1.778m
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4150; 100-day MA: 4283; 150-day MA: 4411; 200-day MA: 4429
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,994; 100-day MA: 33,673; 150-day MA: 34,355; 200-day MA: 34,532
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4925.61 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4261.31 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3999.94 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 3806.16 triggers a buy signal
 
In a stunning election upset, Mayra Flores (R) won the special election in Texas District 34, flipping the House seat of an 84% Hispanic district in the Rio Grande Valley to the GOP.  Biden won the district by 13 points, and Dems won the seat by 13.6 points in 2020.  This is a very dire omen for Dems in 2022!
 
@nedryun: If Dems weren’t panicked before this they should be now; they’re going to be crushed in the fall. If a district is flipping by 20pts now, give it another roughly 5 months
 
The Hispanic shift to the GOP is the biggest political story in decades.  The MSM will be mum.  PS – Hillary won Texas 34 by 33 points in 2016.
 
DeSantis spokeswoman @ChristinaPushaw: Mayra Flores’ husband is serving our country as a Border Patrol officer. Border patrol is a major employer in South Texas. Most US Border Patrol agents are Hispanic. Democrats & the Biden Admin have attacked these brave men & women relentlessly
 
@elonmuskI voted for Mayra Flores – first time I ever voted Republican. Massive red wave in 2022.
 
DeSantis responding to Elon Musk’s possible vote for prez in 2024: ‘I’m focused on 2022: but with Elon Musk, I would say is I welcome support from African Americans.  What can I say?”
https://twitter.com/RubinReport/status/1537117053991124992
 
DeSantis is far smarter, more telegenic, and eons more likeable than Trump – and da Donald knows it.  In a side-by-side comparison/debate, DeSantis would eclipse The Orangeman.
 
@alexbruesewitz: 18 months ago, RINO @TomRiceSC7 voted to impeach Trump. Tonight (Tuesday), he lost his re-election bid by over 25% to Trump-Endorsed, Ultra-MAGA @RussellFrySC
 
@joelpollak: Interesting trend emerging (maybe). Hispanic voters are rejecting Democrats; Republican voters are rejecting anti-Trumpers; but as for the rest, a Trump endorsement is no guarantee, and not the top priorityhttps://t.co/OHLFGIZxQH
 
Michelle Obama’s Get Out the Vote Event in L.A. ‘Sparsely Attended’ Despite Selena Gomez Appearance https://t.co/4M4ZZhqjJ5
 
@DineshDSouza: “Most secure election in history!”  Here’s a Democratic official in Michigan charged with altering voter records to help authenticate fraudulent absentee and mail-in ballots  https://t.co/LCQ0gZ6AEl
 
Ratings slump for second Jan. 6 hearing as around 10 million tune in https://trib.al/Rj3DMsi
 
Kavanaugh neighbor describes ‘horrific’ experience dealing with ‘aggressive’ pro-choice protesters
“They have drummers, they have a megaphone, and they chant, they yell all kinds of things… They have told neighbors ‘f— you, f— your children, things like that – and so they’re abusive toward the neighbors and intimidating.”  “They go in the street. We’ve been told that because they will move eventually when a car comes down the street, they’re not technically blocking the street,” they said…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kavanaugh-neighbor-pro-choice-protesters
 
The SCOTUS issued six rulings on Wednesday’s extra weekly session, but no abortion ruling.  Chief Justice Roberts is a coward whose feckless actions endanger other SCOTUS Justices and their families.
 
Actor/MIT attendee @RealJamesWoods: The news media constantly refer to the Court as having a 6-3 conservative/liberal split. Has John Roberts ever voted with the conservative wing? He loves those Washington cocktail parties too much, methinks.
 
Mitch McConnell FINALLY surfaced on Wednesday to hector Dems/Garland about SCOTUS security.
 
Fox’s @ChadPergram: A) McConnell on threats to SCOTUS justices: President Biden’s department of justice continues to assiduously ignore, ignore the fact that this is totally illegal… It is literally a federal crime.  B) McConnell: Where is Attorney General Garland as the former chief judge of the DC Circuit? He should understand the need for judicial security and independence as well as anyone.  C) McConnell: But that but the same soft on crime ethos that pervade the modern Democratic Party apparently extends even to ignoring illegal pressure campaigns aimed at federal judges.
 
Pro-abortion militants Jane’s Revenge say 30 days of mercy have ‘expired,’ promise more attacks on pro-life centers – “We have demonstrated in the past month how easy and fun it is to attack. We are versatile, we are mercurial, and we answer to no one but ourselves,” and then they stated their threats.
https://thepostmillennial.com/pro-abortion-militants-janes-revenge-say-30-days-of-mercy-have-expired-promise-more-attacks-on-pro-life-centers
 
How come the FBI and Feds have not infiltrated Jane’s Revenge like they do with other groups?  Feds just arrested 31 clowns on suspicion that they might cause trouble.  What are the Feds doing to a group that has publicly announced that they intend to commit mayhem?  How far does liberal privilege extend?
 
Pew survey finds majority of journalists reject idea that both sides ‘always deserve equal coverage’ https://t.co/pQbdEZVaWt
 
Dems fool themselves on Biden’s aging because the alternative — Kamala Harris — is even worse
Harris is the single best argument for Democrats trying to prop up Biden no matter what. She has been a disaster as vice president… She’s simply a political void whose abysmal ratings reflect not just Biden’s troubles but her own profound, inherent flaws as a political figure…Her laugh, a target of critics, usually sounds forced and calculated, at times bordering on inappropriate affect…
https://nypost.com/2022/06/13/dems-fool-themselves-on-bidens-aging-instead-of-kamala-harris/
 
@DineshDSouza: Somehow Bill Barr thinks that geotracking, the very technology used to precisely locate January 6 protestors, cannot be used to identify mules. Why not? (liberal privilege)
https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1537116725388378112
 
@RaheemKassam: In 1903 the @nytimes predicted that man would not fly for a million years, and maybe even 10 million. Less than two weeks later, the Wright Brothers achieved manned flight at Kitty Hawk.
Always be skeptical of media prognosticationhttps://t.co/gAWHvPxYaw
 
George Washington University drops Colonials moniker, officials say name fails to ‘match the values of GW’ – Colonials “can no longer serve its purpose as a name that unifies.”…
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/george-washington-university-drops-colonials
 
Senate Republicans try to head off attempts to include women in the military draft
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/jun/15/senate-republicans-try-head-attempts-include-women/
 
What will happen if men start identifying as women to avoid registering for the draft?
 
@BillFOXLA: Per sources, the gang member who fatally shot two El Monte PD officers last night was on probation for felon w/ a firearm after he received a bare minimum sentence in plea deal under LA DA @GeorgeGascon last year, despite having a previous strike on his record.

Greg Hunter 

SEE YOU FRIDAY

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